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Sample records for 11-yr solar cycle

  1. The climate response to the 11-yr solar cycle in the CMIP5 historical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misios, Stergios; Mitchell, Daniel; Tourpali, Kleareti; Gray, Lesley; Matthes, Katja

    2014-05-01

    The variation of the incoming solar irradiance over the course of the 11-yr solar cycle is a significant source of stratospheric variability. Dynamical mechanisms could amplify and transfer solar signals from the stratosphere to the troposphere and even the surface in a "top-down" pathway. In the opposite direction, "bottom-up" mechanisms could mediate solar signals from the surface to the troposphere via air-sea coupling. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the climate response to the 11-yr solar cycle, as brought about from both "top-down" and "bottom-up" mechanisms, because for the first time different coupled models are driven by spectral solar irradiance and ozone changes. We here analyse archived "historical" simulations (1850-2005) with a lead/lag multiple linear regression model, focusing onto the troposphere and oceans. Our analysis identifies a delayed warming in the troposphere and surface, which is explained by the delayed response of the oceans. In fact, the delayed warming penetrates down to ~150 m from the ocean surface. A significant warming is identified over the western Pacific and Indian oceans whereas an anomalous cooling is simulated in the eastern Pacific. This meridional temperature dipole introduces changes in the Walker circulation, precipitation, convective activity with concomitant effects on the Northern Pacific. We further categorize models in "low- and high-top, depending on the inclusion or not of detailed stratospheric dynamics. This classification is found educative when the relative role of the "top-down" versus "bottom-up" forcing is investigated.

  2. On the Response of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Stratospheric Oxone and Temperature to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, E. E.

    2008-01-01

    Results are presented on responses in 14-yr time series of stratospheric ozone and temperature from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) to a solar cycle (SC-like) variation. The ozone time series are for ten, 20-degree wide, latitude bins from 45S to 45N and for thirteen "half-Umkehr" layers of about 2.5 km thickness and extending from 63 hPa to 0.7 hPa. The temperature time series analyses were restricted to pressure levels in the range of 2 hPa to 0.7 hPa. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were applied to each of the 130 time series of zonally-averaged, sunrise plus sunset ozone points over that latitude/pressure domain. A simple, 11-yr periodic term and a linear trend term were added to the final MLR models after their seasonal and interannual terms had been determined. Where the amplitudes of the 11-yr terms were significant, they were in-phase with those of the more standard proxies for the solar uv-flux. The max minus min response for ozone is of order 2 to 3% from about 2 to 5 hPa and for the latitudes of 45S to 45N. There is also a significant max minus min response of order 1 K for temperature between 15S and 15N and from 2 to 0.7 hPa. The associated linear trends for ozone are near zero in the upper stratosphere. Negative ozone trends of 4 to 6%/decade were found at 10 to 20 hPa across the low to middle latitudes of both hemispheres. It is concluded that the analyzed responses from the HALOE data are of good quality and can be used to evaluate the responses of climate/chemistry models to a solar cycle forcing.

  3. Improving solar 11yr magnetic cycle prediction by using variational data assimilation in a mean field dynamo model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan-Sacha; Fournier, Alexandre; Talagrand, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    We present our recent effort to implement modern variational data assimilation techniques into a 2.5 D mean field solar dynamo code. This work extend the work of (Jouve et al. 2011, ApJ) to take into account the correct spherical geometry and meridional circulation into so-called Babccok-Leigthon flux transport dynamo models. Based on twin-experiments, in which we observe our dynamo simulations, and on a well defined cost function using toroidal and poloidal field observations we are able to recover the main attributes of the dynamo solution used to test our data assimilation algorithm. By assimilating solar data (such as Wolf number or butterfly diagram) we are starting to deduce the profile and temporal variations of key ingredients of the solar dynamo. We find that the data sampling and the temporal window are key to get reliable results. We show how such powerful technique can be used to improve our ability to predict the solar magnetic activity. This work is supported by Idex Sorbonne Paris Cite via the DAMSE project.

  4. Plasma Flows in the Heliosheath along the Voyager 1 and 2 Trajectories due to Effects of the 11 yr Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provornikova, E.; Opher, M.; Izmodenov, V. V.; Richardson, J. D.; Toth, G.

    2014-10-01

    We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variations in the solar wind (SW) parameters on the flows in the heliosheath using a new three-dimensional time-dependent model of the interaction between the SW and the interstellar medium. For boundary conditions in the model we use realistic time and the latitudinal dependence of the SW parameters obtained from SOHO/SWAN and interplanetary scintillation data for the last two solar cycles (1990-2011). This data set generally agrees with the in situ Ulysses measurements from 1991 to 2009. For the first ~30 AU of the heliosheath the time-dependent model predicts constant radial flow speeds at Voyager 2 (V2), which is consistent with observations and different from the steady models that show a radial speed decrease of 30%. The model shows that V2 was immersed in SW with speeds of 500-550 km s-1 upstream of the termination shock before 2009 and in wind with upstream speeds of 450-500 km s-1 after 2009. The model also predicts that the radial velocity along the Voyager 1 (V1) trajectory is constant across the heliosheath, contrary to observations. This difference in observations implies that additional effects may be responsible for the different flows at V1 and V2. The model predicts meridional flows (VN) higher than those observed because of the strong bluntness of the heliosphere shape in the N direction in the model. The modeled tangential velocity component (VT) at V2 is smaller than observed. Both VN and VT essentially depend on the shape of the heliopause.

  5. Plasma flows in the heliosheath along the Voyager 1 and 2 trajectories due to effects of the 11 yr solar cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Provornikova, E.; Opher, M.; Izmodenov, V. V.; Richardson, J. D.; Toth, G. E-mail: mopher@bu.edu E-mail: jdr@space.mit.edu

    2014-10-10

    We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variations in the solar wind (SW) parameters on the flows in the heliosheath using a new three-dimensional time-dependent model of the interaction between the SW and the interstellar medium. For boundary conditions in the model we use realistic time and the latitudinal dependence of the SW parameters obtained from SOHO/SWAN and interplanetary scintillation data for the last two solar cycles (1990-2011). This data set generally agrees with the in situ Ulysses measurements from 1991 to 2009. For the first ∼30 AU of the heliosheath the time-dependent model predicts constant radial flow speeds at Voyager 2 (V2), which is consistent with observations and different from the steady models that show a radial speed decrease of 30%. The model shows that V2 was immersed in SW with speeds of 500-550 km s{sup –1} upstream of the termination shock before 2009 and in wind with upstream speeds of 450-500 km s{sup –1} after 2009. The model also predicts that the radial velocity along the Voyager 1 (V1) trajectory is constant across the heliosheath, contrary to observations. This difference in observations implies that additional effects may be responsible for the different flows at V1 and V2. The model predicts meridional flows (VN) higher than those observed because of the strong bluntness of the heliosphere shape in the N direction in the model. The modeled tangential velocity component (VT) at V2 is smaller than observed. Both VN and VT essentially depend on the shape of the heliopause.

  6. Multiscale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its nonlinear dependence on the 11 yr solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, N.; Willson, R. C.

    2013-11-01

    Herein we adopt a multiscale dynamical spectral analysis technique to compare and study the dynamical evolution of the harmonic components of the overlapping ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 (Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Satellite/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor 3), SOHO/VIRGO (Solar and Heliopheric Observatory/Variability of solar Irradiance and Gravity Oscillations), and SORCE/TIM (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment/Total Irradiance Monitor) total solar irradiance (TSI) records during 2003.15 to 2013.16 in solar cycles 23 and 24. The three TSI time series present highly correlated patterns. Significant power spectral peaks are common to these records and are observed at the following periods: ~ 0.070 yr, ~ 0.097 yr, ~ 0.20 yr, ~ 0.25 yr, ~ 0.30-0.34 yr, and ~ 0.39 yr. Less certain spectral peaks occur at about 0.55 yr, 0.60-0.65 yr and 0.7-0.9 yr. Four main frequency periods at ~ 4.8 days (~ 0.068 yr), ~ 27.3 days (~ 0.075 yr), at ~ 34-35 days (~ 0.093-0.096 yr), and ~ 36-38 days (~ 0.099-0.104 yr) characterize the solar rotation cycle. The amplitude of these oscillations, in particular of those with periods larger than 0.5 yr, appears to be modulated by the ~ 11 yr solar cycle. Similar harmonics have been found in other solar indices. The observed periodicities are found highly coherent with the spring, orbital and synodic periods of Mercury, Venus, Earth and Jupiter. We conclude that solar activity is likely modulated by planetary gravitational and electromagnetic forces acting on the Sun. The strength of the Sun's response to planetary forcing depends nonlinearly on the state of internal solar dynamics; planetary-Sun coupling effects are enhanced during solar activity maxima and attenuated during minima.

  7. The Surface Climate Response to 11-Yr Solar Forcing During Northern Winter: Tests of the Stratospheric (UV-Ozone) Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hood, Lon; Schimanke, Semjon; Spangehl, Thomas; Bal, Sourabh; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2014-05-01

    We have previously reported comparisons of observational estimates of the surface climate response to 11-yr solar forcing during northern winter with a series of GCM simulations that differed only in the assumed solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone (Hood et al., J. of Climate, 2013). Here, we test further whether the most successful model simulation was primarily a consequence of stratospheric (solar UV-ozone) forcing by carrying out multiple linear regression analyses of model zonal wind and temperature data, and then comparing the results to similar analyses of observed zonal wind, temperature, and ozone data. It is found that the GCM simulation that produced a qualitative agreement with the observationally estimated surface climate response is characterized by an unusually strong zonal wind anomaly in the northern midlatitude upper stratosphere during early winter at solar maximum relative to solar minimum (about 5.5 m/s). The centennial period of this simulation that produced the best agreement yielded an even larger anomaly (7.5 m/s). This zonal wind anomaly is similar to (but smaller than) that derived from observations and is a consequence of the stronger latitudinal gradient of ozone and radiative heating in the upper stratosphere during early winter for this simulation. It propagates poleward and downward during the winter, perturbing tropospheric circulation and initiating ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that lead to the observed surface climate response. However, a major remaining uncertainty is the true magnitude of the solar forcing in the upper stratosphere that ultimately leads to the surface climate response. In addition to uncertainties in the solar spectral irradiance variation, there are also uncertainties in the true 11-year variation of ozone in the upper stratosphere that contribute indirectly to the radiative forcing. In particular, current observational evidence indicates that the 11-year variation of upper stratospheric ozone is

  8. Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Richardson, I. G.; Ling, A. G.

    2011-01-01

    In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.

  9. The Surface Climate Response to 11-Yr Solar Forcing During Northern Winter: Tests of the Stratospheric (UV-Ozone) Forcing Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hood, L. L.; Schimanke, S.; Spangehl, T.; Bal, S.; Cubasch, U.

    2013-12-01

    We have previously reported observational analyses and comparisons with model simulations of the sea level pressure and sea surface temperature responses to 11-yr solar forcing during northern winter using an atmosphere-ocean GCM (EGMAM) (1,2). The model has no interactive chemistry so the photochemical component of the stratospheric response was simulated by prescribing a series of possible solar cycle ozone variations. It was found that the results were sensitive to the assumed ozone variation. In particular, a relatively strong ozone variation estimated from satellite data at latitudes up to 60 degrees, declining linearly to zero at the poles, yielded the best overall agreement with the observational analyses, especially during a selected centennial period. Here, we test further whether the most successful model simulation was primarily a consequence of stratospheric (solar UV-ozone) forcing by carrying out multiple linear regression analyses of model zonal wind and temperature data. Results are compared to similar analyses of observed zonal wind, temperature, and ozone data. It is found that the GCM simulation that produced a first-order agreement with the observationally estimated surface climate response is characterized by an unusually strong zonal wind anomaly in the northern midlatitude upper stratosphere during early winter at solar maximum relative to solar minimum (about 5.5 m/s). The centennial period of this simulation that produced the best agreement yielded an even larger zonal wind anomaly (7.5 m/s). This wind anomaly is qualitatively similar to that derived from observations and is a consequence of the stronger latitudinal gradient of ozone and radiative heating in the upper stratosphere for this simulation. It propagates poleward and downward during the winter, perturbing tropospheric circulation and initiating ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that lead to the observed SLP and SST responses. Overall, therefore, the results support the ``top

  10. CMEs, the Tail of the Solar Wind Magnetic Field Distribution, and 11-yr Cosmic Ray Modulation at 1 AU. Revised

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Richardson, I. G.

    2003-01-01

    Using a recent classification of the solar wind at 1 AU into its principal components (slow solar wind, high-speed streams, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for 1972-2000, we show that the monthly-averaged galactic cosmic ray intensity is anti-correlated with the percentage of time that the Earth is imbedded in CME flows. We suggest that this correlation results primarily from a CME related change in the tail of the distribution function of hourly-averaged values of the solar wind magnetic field (B) between solar minimum and solar maximum. The number of high-B (square proper subset 10 nT) values increases by a factor of approx. 3 from minimum to maximum (from 5% of all hours to 17%), with about two-thirds of this increase due to CMEs. On an hour-to-hour basis, average changes of cosmic ray intensity at Earth become negative for solar wind magnetic field values square proper subset 10 nT.

  11. Bimodal Structure of the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Z. L.

    2015-05-01

    Some properties of the 11 yr solar cycle can be explained by the current solar dynamo models. However, some other features remain not well understood such as the asymmetry of the cycle, the double-peaked structure, and the “Waldmeier effect” that a stronger cycle tends to have less rise time and a shorter cycle length. We speculate that the solar cycle is governed by a bi-dynamo model forming two stochastic processes depicted by a bimodal Gaussian function with a time gap of about 2 yr, from which the above features can be reasonably explained. The first one describes the main properties of the cycle dominated by the current solar dynamo models, and the second one occurs either in the rising phase as a short weak explosive perturbation or in the declining phase as a long stochastic perturbation. The above function is the best one selected from several in terms of the Akaike information criterion. Through analyzing different distributions, one might speculate about the dominant physical process inside the convection zone. The secondary (main) process is found to be closely associated with complicated (simple) active ranges. In effect, the bi-dynamo model is a reduced form of a multi-dynamo model, which could occur from the base of the convection zone through its envelope and from low to high heliographic latitude, reflecting the active belts in the convection zone. These results are insensitive to the hemispheric asymmetry, smoothing filters, and distribution functions selected and are expected to be helpful in understanding the formation of solar and stellar cycles.

  12. Solar Cycle Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2011-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan your next vacation. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. I will describe the current state of solar cycle predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

  13. Solar Cycle Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  14. Solar cyclicity: fine structure and forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khramova, M.; Kononovich, E.; Krasotkin, S.

    2002-12-01

    The principal components of the solar activity indices time-series were obtained by the Singular Spectrum Analysis method and identified with the centennial cycle, 11-yr variation and quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO). The amplitudes of the QBO and 11-yr cycle were found to be modulated by the centennial cycle. The following properties of the centennial cycle were settled: the maximum phase has the double-peak structure; the rising part of the centennial cycle (including the first maximum) as a rule covers three solar cycles; the first and the second maximum of the centennial cycle are separated by one small or medium 11-yr cycle; the second maximum consists of just one 11-yr cycle; the fall-down part of the centennial cycle includes four 11-yr cycles. The centennial cycle was found to consists of nine 11-yr cycles and its duration was calculated to be 100±5 years. The double-peak structure was found to be an essential property of the solar cycle maximum phase. The forecast of the Wolf numbers for the solar cycle 24 was obtained.

  15. Deciphering solar magnetic activity. I. On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features

    SciTech Connect

    McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Markel, Robert S.; Thompson, Michael J.; Leamon, Robert J.; Malanushenko, Anna V.; Davey, Alisdair R.; Howe, Rachel; Krista, Larisza D.; Cirtain, Jonathan W.; Gurman, Joseph B.; Pesnell, William D.

    2014-09-01

    Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ∼22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ∼11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

  16. Solar activity secular cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kramynin, A. P.; Mordvinov, A. V.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term variations in solar activity secular cycles have been studied using a method for the expansion of reconstructed sunspot number series Sn( t) for 11400 years in terms of natural orthogonal functions. It has been established that three expansion components describe more than 98% of all Sn( t) variations. In this case, the contribution of the first expansion component is about 92%. The averaged form of the 88year secular cycle has been determined based on the form of the first expansion coordinate function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle have been revealed based on the time function conjugate to the first function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle coincide with those observed in the Sn( t) series spectrum. A change in the secular cycle form and the time variations in this form are described by the second and third expansion components, the contributions of which are about 4 and 2%, respectively. The variations in the steepness of the secular cycle branches are more pronounced in the 200-year cycle, and the secular cycle amplitude varies more evidently in the 2300-year cycle.

  17. Solar Cycle 23: An Anomalous Cycle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Toma, G.; White, O. R.; Chapman, G. A.; Walton, S. R.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.

    2004-05-01

    We discuss the importance of solar cycle 23 as a magnetically simpler cycle and a variant from recent cycles. We see a significant decrease in sunspot activity in cycle 23 relative to cycle 22, but the strength of the total solar irradiance (TSI) cycle did not change significantly. The latest SOHO/VIRGO TSI time series is analyzed using new solar variability measures obtained from full-disk solar images made at the San Fernando Observatory and the MgII 280nm index. The TSI record for the period 1986 to the present is reproduced within about 130ppm RMS using only two indices representing photospheric and chromospheric sources of variability due to magnetic regions. This is in spite of the difference in magnetic activity between the two cycles. Our results show the continuing improvement in TSI measurements and surrogates containing information necessary to account for irradiance variability.

  18. Solar magnetic cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harvey, Karen L.

    1993-01-01

    Using NSO/KP magnetograms, the pattern and rate of the emergence of magnetic flux and the development of the large-scale patterns of unipolar fields are considered in terms of the solar magnetic cycle. Magnetic flux emerges in active regions at an average rate of 2 x 10(exp 21) Mx/day, approximately 10 times the estimated rate in ephemeral regions. Observations are presented that demonstrate that the large-scale unipolar fields originate in active regions and activity nests. For cycle 21, the net contribution of ephemeral regions to the axial dipole moment of the Sun is positive, and is of opposite sign to that of active regions. Its amplitude is smaller by a factor of 6, assuming an average lifetime of ephemeral regions of 8 hours. Active regions larger than 4500 Mm(sup 2) are the primary contributor to the cycle variation of Sun's axial dipole moment.

  19. Solar Cycle 23: An Anomalous Cycle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Toma, Giuliana; White, Oran R.; Chapman, Gary A.; Walton, Stephen R.; Preminger, Dora G.; Cookson, Angela M.

    2004-07-01

    The latest SOHO VIRGO total solar irradiance (TSI) time series is analyzed using new solar variability measures obtained from full-disk solar images made at the San Fernando Observatory and the Mg II 280 nm index. We discuss the importance of solar cycle 23 as a magnetically simpler cycle and a variant from recent cycles. Our results show the continuing improvement in TSI measurements and surrogates containing information necessary to account for irradiance variability. Use of the best surrogate for irradiance variability due to photospheric features (sunspots and faculae) and chromospheric features (plages and bright network) allows fitting the TSI record to within an rms difference of 130 ppm for the period 1986 to the present. Observations show that the strength of the TSI cycle did not change significantly despite the decrease in sunspot activity in cycle 23 relative to cycle 22. This points to the difficulty of modeling TSI back to times when only sunspot observations were available.

  20. Solar cycle variations in the solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freeman, John W.; Lopez, Ramon E.

    1986-01-01

    The solar cycle variations of various solar wind parameters are reviewed. It is shown that there is a gradual decrease in the duration of high-speed streams from the declining phase of solar cycle 20 through the ascending phase of cycle 21 and a corresponding decrease in the annual average of the proton speed toward solar maximum. Beta, the ratio of the proton thermal pressure to magnetic pressure, undergoes a significant solar cycle variation, as expected from the variation in the IMF. Individual hourly averages of beta often exceed unity with 20 cases exceeding 10 and one case as high as 25. The Alfven Mach number shows a solar cycle variation similar to beta, lower aboard solar maximum. High-speed streams can be seen clearly in epsilon and the y component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

  1. Solar Cycle Variations in the Solar Interior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, E. J.

    2012-12-01

    This presentation will review the observational evidence for solar cycle-dependent changes in the structure and dynamical motions of the solar interior. It will include the results of studies that have been carried out using the tools of both global and local heiloseismology during Solar Cycles 22, 23, and 24. The presentation will describe results obtained with both ground- and space-based helioseismic programs, and it will also describe the role that these helioseismic studies have played in providing inputs to theoretical studies of the solar dynamo. Among the topics that will be covered are temporal changes in the solar torsional oscillations, the solar meridional circulation, the solar seismic radius, the subsurface vorticity, and the solar p-mode oscillation frequencies and widths. Also covered will be evidence for temporal changes in the solar interior that are related to the emergence of active regions on both the near and far sides of the Sun.

  2. Solar Cycle Predictions (Invited Review)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2012-11-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions, just as weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as the reduced propellant load is consumed more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5 - 20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations of how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future are discussed.

  3. Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

    2007-01-01

    We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears

  4. Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

    2007-01-01

    We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes

  5. Solar Proton Events in Six Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vitaly, Ishkov

    Based on materials the catalogs of solar proton events (SPE) in 1955 ‒ 2010 and list SPE for the current 24 solar cycle (SC) are examined confirmed SPE with E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 proton cm-2 s ster-1 (pfu) from Švestka and Simon’s (1955 - 1969) and 5 volumes Logachev’s (1970 - 2006) Catalogs of SPE. Historically thus it was formed, that the measurements of the proton fluxes began in the epoch “increased” solar activity (SC 18 ‒ 22), and includes transition period of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction from epoch “increased” to the epoch “lowered” solar activity (22 ‒ 23 SC). In current 24 SC ‒ first SC of the incipient epoch of “lowered” SA ‒ SPE realize under the new conditions, to that of previously not observed. As showed a study of five solar cycles with the reliable measurements of E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 pfu (1964 - 2013): ‒ a quantity of SPEs remained approximately identical in SC 20, 21, somewhat decreased in the initial solar cycle of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (22), but it returned to the same quantity in, the base for the period of reconstruction, SC 23. ‒ Into the first 5 years of the each solar cycle development the rate of the proton generation events noticeably increased in 22 cycles of solar activity and returned to the average in cycles 23 and 24. ‒ Extreme solar flare events are achieved, as a rule, in the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (August - September 1859; June 1991; October ‒ November 2003.), it is confirmed also for SPE: the extreme fluxes of solar protons (S4) except one (August 1972) were occurred in period of perestroika (SC 22 and 23). This can speak, that inside the epochs SA, when the generation of magnetic field in the convective zone works in the steady-state regime, extreme SPE are improbable. ‒ The largest in the fluxes of protons (S3, S4) occur in the complexes of the active regions flare events, where magnetic field more

  6. Solar Cycle 25: Another Moderate Cycle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, R. H.; Jiang, J.; Schüssler, M.

    2016-06-01

    Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 ± 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2 G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not much higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.

  7. Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crooker, N. U.

    1983-01-01

    Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

  8. Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S.

    1988-01-01

    Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

  9. Recurrent high-speed streams in the solar wind during the decay phase of solar cycle No. 21: observations with a wide-angle ion energy spectrometer on Prognoz-9

    SciTech Connect

    Gringauz, K.I.; Bezrukikh, V.V.; Verigin, M.I.; Kotova, G.A.

    1987-07-01

    Solar wind measurements were made on Prognoz 9 from July 1983 to February 1984 during the decay phase of solar cycle No. 21. The measurements were made by means of the D-137A wide-angle ion energy spectrometer. During this time period, high-speed streams were observed in the solar wind which were stable for intervals of 5-6 solar rotations. In several of the streams, the speed was as high as 700-800 km/sec. They have compared the Prognoz 9 data with data obtained by analogous measurements in the preceding solar cycle. This comparison leads them to the conclusion that the presence of recurrent high-speed streams is a regular feature during the decay phases of the 11-yr cycles of solar activity, and is one of the manifestations of these cycles.

  10. Neutral solar wind evolution during solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bzowski, M.; Rucinski, D.

    1995-01-01

    The time dependent model of the expected fluxes of the neutral H and He components of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere is discussed. The model takes into account typical temporal evolution of the distribution of neutral interstellar gases (hydrogen and helium) in the interplanetary space due to solar cycle effects and the long term variability of the solar wind. The contribution of different charge exchange processes to the production of particular NSW element is presented. The distribution of the NSW flux is analysed with respect to the heliocentric distance and azimuthal angle from the Interstellar Wind apex. It demonstrates significant, time-dependent upwind/downwind H and He flux asymmentries. It is shown that the most pronounced modulation of the NSW flux is expected around the solar maximum epoch, when a strong decrease of the energetic H flux by two three orders of magnitude at 1 AU is predicted. The computations show that in the inner solar system (approx. 1 AU) energetic helium atoms production in the downwind region usually dominates the production of the hydrogen component This leads to the conclusion that the NSW composition at the Earth orbit strongly depends on time and the position of the observation point in reference to the apex direction.

  11. Magnetic Flux Conservation in the Heliosheath Including Solar Cycle Variations of Magnetic Field Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A. T.; Opher, M.; Provornikova, E.; Richardson, J. D.; Tóth, G.

    2015-04-01

    In the heliosheath (HS), Voyager 2 has observed a flow with constant radial velocity and magnetic flux conservation. Voyager 1, however, has observed a decrease in the flow’s radial velocity and an order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux. We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variation of the magnetic field strength on the magnetic flux within the HS using a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere. We use time and latitude-dependent solar wind velocity and density inferred from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/SWAN and interplanetary scintillations data and implemented solar cycle variations of the magnetic field derived from 27 day averages of the field magnitude average of the magnetic field at 1 AU from the OMNI database. With the inclusion of the solar cycle time-dependent magnetic field intensity, the model matches the observed intensity of the magnetic field in the HS along both Voyager 1 and 2. This is a significant improvement from the same model without magnetic field solar cycle variations, which was over a factor of two larger. The model accurately predicts the radial velocity observed by Voyager 2; however, the model predicts a flow speed ˜100 km s-1 larger than that derived from LECP measurements at Voyager 1. In the model, magnetic flux is conserved along both Voyager trajectories, contrary to observations. This implies that the solar cycle variations in solar wind magnetic field observed at 1 AU does not cause the order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux observed in the Voyager 1 data.

  12. Solar Wind Trends in the Current Solar Cycle (STEREO Observations)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvin, Antoinette; Simunac, Kristin; Farrugia, Charles

    2016-04-01

    We examine solar wind ion characteristics for the current solar cycle, utilizing near-Earth (OMNI) and STEREO data. Sources of the solar wind are known to be linked to the phase of the solar cycle and include coronal holes, coronal mass ejections, and multiple cycle-dependent sources for the so-called "slow" solar wind. This past solar minimum was characterized by weak transients and sustained periods of slow solar wind, and included cases of "slow" and "slower" solar wind stream interactions. In contrast, intervals around solar maximum have included extremely fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections, with one such ICME observed in situ by STEREO A exceeding 2000 km/s at 1 AU. We will look at specific case studies of solar wind observed in situ by STEREO, particularly for solar wind proton and iron ions.

  13. A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

    1999-01-01

    A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

  14. Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H2O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, A. V.; Rozanov, E.; Shapiro, A. I.; Wang, S.; Egorova, T.; Schmutz, W.; Peter, Th.

    2011-10-01

    The mesospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) is mainly produced by the water vapor (H2O) photolysis and could be considered as a proxy for the influence of the solar irradiance variability on the mesosphere. We analyze the tropical mean response of the mesospheric OH and H2O data as observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) to 27-day solar variability. The analysis is performed for two time periods corresponding to the different phases of the 11-yr cycle: from December 2004 to December 2005 ("solar maximum" period with a pronounced 27-day solar cycle) and from November 2008 to November 2009 ("solar minimum" period with a vague 27-day solar cycle). We demonstrate, for the first time, that in the mesosphere the daily time series of OH concentrations correlate well with the solar irradiance (correlation coefficients up to 0.79) at zero time-lag. At the same time H2O anticorrelates (correlation coefficients up to -0.74) with the solar irradiance at non-zero time-lag. We found that the response of OH and H2O to the 27-day variability of the solar irradiance is strong for the solar maximum and negligible for the solar minimum conditions. It allows us to suggest that the 27-day cycle in the solar irradiance and in OH and H2O are physically connected.

  15. How active was solar cycle 22?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

    1993-01-01

    Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

  16. Causal relationships between solar and geomagnetic cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponyavin, D. I.

    2006-12-01

    Sunspots are sui generis "hot spots" that display the most responsive regions to solar cycle changes. Rudolf Wolf in 1848 derived a simple measure of solar cyclicity by counting a number of sunspots and sunspot groups at the solar disk. Edward Sabine in 1852 announced that geomagnetic cycle was "absolutely identical" to solar cycle. However geomagnetic and sunspot indices due to their different nature do not exhibit similar variations and often manifest out of phase behavior. Long-term sunspot and geomagnetic time-series were studied using wavelet transforms and recurrence plot techniques. We have analyzed similarities and relationships between sunspot and geomagnetic cycles in order to find recurrence, synchronization and phase differences on interannual scale. Predictive schemes of the current and future solar cycles using geomagnetic proxies were analyzed and discussed.

  17. Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H2O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, A. V.; Rozanov, E.; Shapiro, A. I.; Wang, S.; Egorova, T.; Schmutz, W.; Peter, Th.

    2012-04-01

    The mesospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) is mainly produced by the water vapor (H2O) photolysis and could be considered as a proxy for the influence of the solar irradiance variability on the mesosphere. We analyze the tropical mean response of the mesospheric OH and H2O data as observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) to 27-day solar variability. The analysis is performed for two time periods corresponding to the different phases of the 11-yr cycle: from December 2004 to December 2005 (the period of "high activity" with a pronounced 27-day solar cycle) and from August 2008 to August 2009 ("solar minimum" period with a vague 27-day solar cycle). We demonstrate, for the first time, that in the mesosphere the daily time series of OH concentrations correlate well with the solar irradiance (correlation coefficients up to 0.79) at zero time-lag. At the same time H2O anticorrelates (correlation coefficients up to -0.74) with the solar irradiance at non-zero time-lag. We found that the response of OH and H2O to the 27-day variability of the solar irradiance is strong for the period of the high solar activity and negligible for the solar minimum conditions. It allows us to suggest that the 27-day cycle in the solar irradiance and in OH and H2O are physically connected.

  18. Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    1997-01-01

    Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an

  19. Polar Network Index as a Magnetic Proxy for the Solar Cycle Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priyal, Muthu; Banerjee, Dipankar; Karak, Bidya Binay; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Ravindra, B.; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai; Singh, Jagdev

    2014-09-01

    The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k × 4k CCD and have higher resolution (~0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.

  20. POLAR NETWORK INDEX AS A MAGNETIC PROXY FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE STUDIES

    SciTech Connect

    Priyal, Muthu; Banerjee, Dipankar; Ravindra, B.; Singh, Jagdev; Karak, Bidya Binay; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai E-mail: dipu@iiap.res.in

    2014-09-20

    The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k × 4k CCD and have higher resolution (∼0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.

  1. Solar Irradiance Observations during Solar Cycles 22 and 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, O. R.; de Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Walton, S. R.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.; Harvey, K. L.; Livingston, W. C.

    2002-05-01

    We present a study of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variations during solar cycles 22 and 23 from 1986 to the present. We will review the recent measurements of solar magnetism, solar activity, and radiative variability from both ground-based and space observatories and compare TSI observations with empirical models of solar irradiance variability based on facular and sunspot observations. To estimate facular/plage and sunspot contribution to TSI we use the photometric indices derived from the SFO full-disk solar images from 1988 to the present in the CaIIK line at 393.4nm and in the red continuum at 672.3 nm. In these indices, each solar structure is included with its measured contrast and area. We also use the MgII core-to-wing index from space observatories as an alternative index for plages and network. Comparison of the rising and maximum phases of the two solar cycles, shows that cycle 23 is magnetically weaker with sunspot and facular area almost a factor of two lower than in solar cycle 22. However, analysis of multi-wavelength observations indicate that different wavelengths respond differently to the decreased magnetic activity during solar cycle 23.

  2. Correlations of solar cycle 22 UV irradiance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Floyd, L.; Brueckner, G.; Crane, P.; Prinz, D.; Herring, L.

    1997-01-01

    The solar ultraviolet spectral irradiance monitor (SUSIM) onboard the upper atmosphere research satellite (UARS) is an absolutely calibrated UV spectrometer which has measured the solar spectral irradiance over the wavelengths 115 nm to 410 nm since October 1991. This data set now extends for about six years from near the peak of solar cycle 22, through its minimum, to the initial rise associated with solar cycle 23. Generally, the time series of UV spectral irradiances obtained shows behavior similar to that of other solar activity indices. The conditions on the sun, which can in result in dominant 13.5-day periodicity, are analyzed and illustrated. It is found that any combination of presence or absence of dominant 13.5-day in UV irradiance and solar wind velocity is possible depending entirely on the particular surface distribution and orientation of solar active regions.

  3. A Note on Solar Cycle Length Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaquero, J. M.; García, J. A.; Gallego, M. C.

    2006-05-01

    Recently, new estimates of the solar cycle length (SCL) have been calculated using the Zurich Sunspot Number (R Z) and the Regression-Fourier-Calculus (RFC)-method, a mathematically rigorous method involving multiple regression, Fourier approximation, and analytical expressions for the first derivative. In this short contribution, we show estimates of the solar cycle length using the RFC-method and the Group Sunspot Number (R G) instead the R Z. Several authors have showed the advantages of R G for the analysis of sunspot activity before 1850. The use of R G solves some doubtful solar cycle length estimates obtained around 1800 using R Z.

  4. The solar cycle variation of the solar wind helium abundance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ogilvie, K. W.; Hirshberg, J.

    1974-01-01

    A critical survey was made of the experimental evidence for a variation of the relative abundance by number h, (n alpha/np), of helium in the solar wind. The abundance is found to vary by delta h = 0.01 + or - 0.01 from 0.035 to 0.045 over solar cycle 20. Changes in the average bulk speed during the solar activity cycle was insufficient to account for this increase in h with the solar cycle. The slope of the linear relation between h and the plasma bulk speed is also found to vary, being greatest around solar maximum. An attempt is made to explain the 30% variation in h as the result of the variation in the number of major solar flares over a solar cycle. These obvious transients are apparently not numerous enough to explain the observed variation, but the reasonable expectation remains that the transients observed recently by Skylab which may occur more frequently than major flares could augment those associated with major flares. Since the solar wind flux is not observed to increase at solar maximum, the abundance of Helium cannot be proportional to the proton flux leaving the sun unless the solar wind comes from a smaller area of the sun at maximum than at minimum.

  5. Solar cycle 24 from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogurtsov, M. G.

    2016-03-01

    The predictions of the maximum yearly mean sunspot number in the current cycle 24 made by means of the astrophysical approach (by analyzing the instrumental data on solar activity and using various dynamo models) and the paleoastrophysical approach (by analyzing the paleoreconstructions of solar activity spanning the interval from 8555 BC to 1605 AD) are compared. The paleoastrophysical predictions are shown to be considerably more accurate. The amplitude of the next cycle 25 is predicted. It is shown that from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics, cycle 25 will most likely be of medium power, R max(25) = 85.0 ± 30.5.

  6. Solar cycle variations in IMF intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, J. H.

    1979-01-01

    Annual averages of logarithms of hourly interplanetary magnetic field intensities, obtained from geocentric spacecraft between November 1963 and December 1977, reveal the following solar cycle variation. For 2 to 3 years at each solar minimum period, the IMF intensity is depressed by 10-15 percent relative to its mean value realized during a broad nine-year period centered at solar maximum. No systematic variations occur during this nine-year period. The solar minimum decrease, although small relative to variations in some other solar wind parameters, is both statistically and physically significant.

  7. Solar cycle variations in IMF intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, J. H.

    1979-01-01

    Annual averages of logarithms of hourly interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensities, obtained from geocentric spacecraft between November 1963 and December 1977, reveal the following solar cycle variation. For 2-3 years at each solar minimum period, the IMF intensity is depressed by 10-15% relative to its mean value realized during a broad 9-year period centered at solar maximum. No systematic variations occur during this 9-year period. The solar minimum decrease, although small in relation to variations in some other solar wind parameters, is both statistically and physically significant.

  8. Rankine-cycle solar-cooling systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weathers, H. M.

    1979-01-01

    Report reviews progress made by three contractors to Marshall Space Flight Center and Department of Energy in developing Rankine-cycle machines for solar cooling and testing of commercially available equipment involved.

  9. A Decline in Solar Cycle Strength

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, G. A.; de Toma, G.; Cookson, A.

    2013-12-01

    The strength of solar activity appears to be in decline over the past three solar cycles. The decline is seen in sunspot area, facular/network area and the sunspot number. In addition, cycle 24 has been unusual in that many, if not most, of the bipolar sunspot groups have had only a leader spot with no follower spot. This research was partially supported by grants from NSF and NASA. Corrected spot area from CFDT1 at the San Fernando Observatory

  10. Solar proton events during solar cycles 19, 20, and 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feynman, J.; Armstrong, T. P.; Dao-Gibner, L.; Silverman, S.

    1990-01-01

    Earlier studies based on a single solar cycle had resulted in a sharp division of events into 'ordinary' and 'anomalously large' events. Two such entirely separate distributions imply two entirely separate acceleration mechanisms, one common and the other very rare. The sharp division is neither required nor justified by this larger sample. Instead the event intensity forms a smooth distribution for intensities up to the largest observed implying that any second acceleration mechanism cannot be rare. Also, a clear bimodal variation of annual integrated flux with solar cycle phase but no statistically significant tendency for the large events to avoid sunspot maximum is found. There is almost no relation between the maximum sunspot number in a solar cycle and the solar cycle integrated flux. It is also found that for annual sunspot numbers greater than 35 there is no relation whatsoever between the annual sunspot numbers and annual integrated flux.

  11. Global water cycle and solar activity variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Tameemi, Muthanna A.; Chukin, Vladimir V.

    2016-05-01

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983-2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983-2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983-2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.

  12. Forecasting the solar cycle with genetic algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orfila, A.; Ballester, J. L.; Oliver, R.; Alvarez, A.; Tintoré, J.

    2002-04-01

    In the past, it has been postulated that the irregular dynamics of the solar cycle may embed a low order chaotic process (Weiss 1988, 1994; Spiegel 1994) which, if true, implies that the future behaviour of solar activity should be predictable. Here, starting from the historical record of Zürich sunspot numbers, we build a dynamical model of the solar cycle which allows us to make a long-term forecast of its behaviour. Firstly, the deterministic part of the time series has been reconstructed using the Singular Spectrum Analysis and then an evolutionary algorithm (Alvarez et al. 2001), based on Darwinian theories of natural selection and survival and ideally suited for non-linear time series, has been applied. Then, the predictive capability of the algorithm has been tested by comparing the behaviour of solar cycles 19-22 with forecasts made with the algorithm, obtaining results which show reasonable agreement with the known behaviour of those cycles. Next, the forecast of the future behaviour of solar cycle 23 has been performed and the results point out that the level of activity during this cycle will be somewhat smaller than in the two previous ones.

  13. Empirical solar/stellar cycle simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Ângela R. G.; Cunha, Margarida S.; Avelino, Pedro P.

    2015-09-01

    As a result of the magnetic cycle, the properties of the solar oscillations vary periodically. With the recent discovery of manifestations of activity cycles in the seismic data of other stars, the understanding of the different contributions to such variations becomes even more important. With this in mind, we built an empirical parameterised model able to reproduce the properties of the sunspot cycle. The resulting simulations can be used to estimate the magnetic-induced frequency shifts.

  14. Sudden ionospheric disturbances in solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Bernert, Barbara

    2014-05-01

    Sudden ionospheric disturbances in solar cycle 24 Within the framework of the UN International Space Weather Initiative, and building upon the achievements of the International Heliophysical Year, the German project SIMONE (Sun Ionosphere MOnitoring NEtwork) operates several SID monitors provided by the University of Stanford. Here we present an overview of sudden ionospheric disturbances recorded since 2006 at the high school Gymnasium Walsrode until to date. The continous measurements allow a detailed comparison of locally measured SIDs with the general trend of solar activity during the current solar maximum. We further show that the measurements reveal specific information on the variable response of the dayside ionosphere to solar flares.

  15. Evolution of the solar luminosity during solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, L. A.; Schrijver, C.; DeRosa, M. L.; Norton, A.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Da Silva, L.; Vuets, A.

    2012-12-01

    The effect of the solar activity on the solar luminosity, which is the total electromagnetic solar output, is one of the fundamental questions in solar physics. Changes of the solar luminosity can arise from changes of the energy flux in the convection zone that can also affects other solar parameters such as the surface temperature, the apparent radius and shape, and the symmetry of the radiative field itself. Additionally, understanding the latitudinal distribution of the flux density is needed to compare the solar variability and its stellar analogues. Nevertheless, our observations of the solar flux density are limited to a region near the ecliptic plane, which have provided just a raw estimate of the variability of the solar luminosity. Here we present a reconstruction of the solar flux density and solar luminosity for the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. The reconstruction is based on a combination of a state-of-art solar surface magnetic flux transport model and a semi-empirical total and spectral irradiance model. The flux transport model is based on assimilation of MDI/SOHO and HMI/SDO magnetograms. The irradiance model's free parameters are estimated by minimizing the difference between the model's output and the PMOD Composite of TSI measurements. We have obtained a good agreement between the model's output and the measurements. The distribution of active regions leads to a clear low latitude brightening during the solar maximum. This brightening results from the balance of the contributions from bright (faculae and network) and dark features (sunspots) located in the solar surface, which peaks near the solar equator. As the effects of dark features are limited to a narrower region, the variability of the flux density at the poles is dominated by the evolution of faculae and network. The preliminary results indicate that the heat flux blocked by sunspots is lower than the flux leaked by bright features. Consequently, an increase of the

  16. Evolution of Solar Wind Heavy Ions over the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

    2014-05-01

    Solar wind composition has been shown to effectively discriminate between different types of solar wind, including slow, fast and ICME related wind. The composition reflects the properties of the source regions of the wind in the corona and their evolution. We present the systematic and comprehensive analysis of the ionic and elemental composition observed on ACE over solar cycle 23 from 2000 until 2010. During this period, the Sun evolved through solar maximum to solar minimum. We find significantly lower C, O, and Fe charge states as well as a 50% decrease in heavy ion abundances (He, C, O, Si, Fe) relative to H during this transition towards solar minimum. We also examined the FIP bias. We consider the implications of these findings for solar wind models and for identification of the fast and slow wind.

  17. Missing solar cycle hypothesis and basic statistical regularities of solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogurtsov, M. G.

    2012-12-01

    The basic statistical properties of solar cycles, including the Gnevyshev-Ol' rule, the Waldmeier effect, and the amplitude-period effect, are tested using data on the number of sunspot groups for 1700-1996, considering the hypothesis about a missing solar cycle in the late 18th century. The results show that the division of the long cycle of 1784-1800 into two short cycles—1784-1793 and 1793-1800—alters significantly the pattern of the solar cycles. The Gnevyshev-Ol' cycle intensity effect becomes stronger, and almost all other statistical effects grow weaker. This change is due to the fact that the short and weak cycle of 1793-1800 is statistically very unusual and its features are very different from those of other solar cycles.

  18. Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuroda, Yuhji

    2016-04-01

    Climate is known to be affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the winter-mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and late-winter/spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, these signals tend to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period only in the High Solar (HS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

  19. SOLAR CYCLE VARIABILITY AND SURFACE DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION FROM Ca II K-LINE TIME SERIES DATA

    SciTech Connect

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Worden, Simon P.; Keil, Stephen L.

    2013-07-01

    Analysis of over 36 yr of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates 5 components of the variation of the 7 measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period {approx} 11 yr), (b) quasi-periodic variations (periods {approx} 100 days), (c) a broadband stochastic process (wide range of periods), (d) rotational modulation, and (e) random observational errors, independent of (a)-(d). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi-periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (a) and (b) at timescales in the range {approx}0.1-10 yr. These results using only full-disk data suggest that similar analyses will be useful for detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (c) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random process with a power-law slope index that varies in a systematic way. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the more rapid variations of the stochastic process (c). Component (d) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions. Component (e) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory Web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak{sub m}on/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

  20. Solar Cycle Variability and Surface Differential Rotation from Ca II K-line Time Series Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Keil, Stephen L.; Worden, Simon P.

    2013-07-01

    Analysis of over 36 yr of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates 5 components of the variation of the 7 measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period ~ 11 yr), (b) quasi-periodic variations (periods ~ 100 days), (c) a broadband stochastic process (wide range of periods), (d) rotational modulation, and (e) random observational errors, independent of (a)-(d). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi-periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (a) and (b) at timescales in the range ~0.1-10 yr. These results using only full-disk data suggest that similar analyses will be useful for detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (c) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random process with a power-law slope index that varies in a systematic way. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the more rapid variations of the stochastic process (c). Component (d) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions. Component (e) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory Web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

  1. Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes during Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchenko, S. V.; DeLand, M. T.

    2014-07-01

    We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by ~0.6% ± 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% ± 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at λ >~ 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

  2. Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

  3. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-02-01

    An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle.

  4. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-01-01

    An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

  5. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles.

    PubMed

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-01-01

    An understanding of the Ohl's Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun's electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun's Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

  6. Solar Cycle Variation of CMEs and CIRs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.

    2011-01-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) are two solar phenomena that produce large-scale structures in the interplanetary (IP) medium. CMEs evolve into interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and the HSS result in corotating interaction regions (CIRs) when they interact with preceding slow solar wind. CMEs and CIRs originate from closed (active region and filament region) and open (corona) hole) magnetic field regions on the Sun, respectively. These two types of mass emissions from the Sun are responsible for the largest effects on the heliosphere, particularly on Earth's space environment. This paper discussed how these structures and their solar sources vary with the solar cycle and the consequent changes in the geospace impact.

  7. Solar Cycle Variations in the Polar Ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burrell, A. G.; Yeoman, T. K.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

    2014-12-01

    The polar ionosphere is a dynamic region that readily responds to changes in solar irradiance, solar wind, the magnetosphere, and the neutral atmosphere. The most recent solar minimum brought to light gaps in the current understanding of the relationship between ionospheric structure and solar irradiance. The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) offers an invaluable dataset for studying long-term ionospheric variability, as it has been continuously providing extensive coverage of the northern and southern polar ionosphere since 1995 (the solar minimum preceding the 23rd solar cycle). An under-utilized portion of the SuperDARN dataset is the ground-backscatter: the backscatter that returns from a reflection point on the ground along an open (or irregularity-free) propagation path. The ground-backscatter provides a measure the ionospheric density at the peak of the radar signal's path. These measurements are used to the examine the changes in the bottomside, polar ionosphere over the 23rd and 24th solar cycles.

  8. Solar cycle variation of network magnetic elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J. X.; Jin, C. L.

    With the unique database from Michelson Doppler Imager aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million solar network magnetic elements are selected, and the following results are discussed. (1) With increasing flux per element, the number variation of the network elements shows a three-fold scenario: no-correlation, anti-correlation, and correlation with sunspots, respectively. The anti-correlated elements cover flux range of (2.9 - 32.0)× 10^{18} Mx, and occupy 77.2% of total network elements. (2) The latitude distribution of the correlated elements follows the sunspot butterfly diagram in the solar cycle but has wider latitude distribution than sunspots. Furthermore, the anti-correlated elements also show much broad latitude distribution, but a moderate migration toward equator during the solar maximum which was clearly out of phase with sunspots. These results shed new light in understanding anti-correlated variations of small-scale solar activity, e.g., X-ray coronal bright points, and the origin of the Sun's small-scale magnetism.

  9. Coronal Activity and Extended Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altrock, R. C.

    2012-12-01

    Wilson et al. (1988, Nature 333, 748) discussed a number of solar parameters, which appear at high latitudes and gradually migrate towards the equator, merging with the sunspot "butterfly diagram". They found that this concept had been identified by earlier investigators extending back to 1957. They named this process the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC). Altrock (1997, Solar Phys. 170, 411) found that this process continued in Fe XIV 530.3 nm emission features. In cycles 21 - 23 solar maximum occurred when the number of Fe XIV emission regions per day > 0.19 (averaged over 365 days and both hemispheres) first reached latitudes 18°, 21° and 21°, for an average of 20° ± 1.7°. Other recent studies have shown that Torsional Oscillation (TO) negative-shear zones are co-located with the ESC from at least 50° down to the equator and also in the zones where the Rush to the Poles occur. These phenomena indicate that coronal activity occurring up to 50° and higher latitudes is related to TO shear zones, another indicator that the ESC is an important solar process. Another high-latitude process, which appears to be connected with the ESC, is the "Rush to the Poles" ("Rush") of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission, including Fe XIV. The Rush is is a harbinger of solar maximum (cf. Altrock, 2003, Solar Phys. 216, 343). Solar maximum in cycles 21 - 23 occurred when the center line of the Rush reached a critical latitude. These latitudes were 76°, 74° and 78°, respectively, for an average of 76° ± 2°. Applying the above conclusions to Cycle 24 is difficult due to the unusual nature of this cycle. Cycle 24 displays an intermittent "Rush" that is only well-defined in the northern hemisphere. In 2009 an initial slope of 4.6°/yr was found in the north, compared to an average of 9.4 ± 1.7 °/yr in the previous three cycles. This early fit to the Rush would have reached 76° at 2014.6. However, in 2010 the slope increased to 7.5°/yr (an increase

  10. Changes of solar extreme ultraviolet spectrum in solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Yongqiang; Zhang, Donghe; Xiao, Zuo; Huang, Jianping

    2016-07-01

    Following the extreme solar minimum during 2008 - 2009, solar activity keeps low in solar cycle 24 (SC24) and is making SC24 the weakest one of recent cycles. In this paper, we compare the solar EUV spectral irradiance between SC23 and SC24, using the measurements by the Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) on the Thermospheric Ionospheric Mesospheric Energy and Dynamics (TIMED) spacecraft. The EUV spectrum varies with solar activity, and is in general a linear function of a proxy index P= (F10.7 + F10.7A)/2. However, we find the slope of this function, i.e., the change rate of irradiance at each wavelength with P, differs between SC23 and SC24. Consequently, at a given P level, the irradiance in SC24 is higher at wavelength of 30 - 50 nm, but lower at 60 - 120 nm and longward of 140 nm; the inter-cycle variation of EUV irradiance at some wavelengths can be 30 - 40% in absolute flux. We further examine 38 most intense emission lines and find that, taking P as a reference, most of the bright coronal lines get stronger in SC24 and, by contrast, those from the chromosphere and transition region have less variability in SC24. We therefore suggest that, the empirical relation between solar EUV and P, which is derived from observations in previous solar cycles, may not adapt to SC24. The changes in EUV spectrum need to be considered in the models for aeronomic study, especially those using F10.7 index as an input parameter.

  11. Statistical Projection of Solar Cycle 24 for the Exposure Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Wilson, John W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    A solar cycle statistical model has been developed based on the accumulating cycle sunspot data to estimate future levels of the solar cycle activity. Since the current solar cycle 24 has progressed about three years, the cycle activity levels are estimated with an accurately defined solar minimum 24. Then, solar cycle 24 is projected with the cycle activity levels using the statistical model. The projection of solar cycle 24 is then coupled to space related quantities of interest to radiation protection, because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by the degree of disturbance in the solar surface and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The resultant projection of solar cycle 24 provides a basis for estimating exposure in future space missions, and projection errors can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

  12. Sources of solar wind over the solar activity cycle.

    PubMed

    Poletto, Giannina

    2013-05-01

    Fast solar wind has been recognized, about 40 years ago, to originate in polar coronal holes (CHs), that, since then, have been identified with sources of recurrent high speed wind streams. As of today, however, there is no general consensus about whether there are, within CHs, preferential locations where the solar wind is accelerated. Knowledge of slow wind sources is far from complete as well. Slow wind observed in situ can be traced back to its solar source by backward extrapolation of magnetic fields whose field lines are streamlines of the outflowing plasma. However, this technique often has not the necessary precision for an indisputable identification of the region where wind originates. As the Sun progresses through its activity cycle, different wind sources prevail and contribute to filling the heliosphere. Our present knowledge of different wind sources is here summarized. Also, a Section addresses the problem of wind acceleration in the low corona, as inferred from an analysis of UV data, and illustrates changes between fast and slow wind profiles and possible signatures of changes along the solar cycle. A brief reference to recent work about the deep roots of solar wind and their changes over different solar cycles concludes the review. PMID:25685421

  13. Solar cycle variation in UV solar spectral irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng Yeo, Kok; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.

    2015-08-01

    Solar spectral irradiance, SSI, in the UV has been measured from space, almost without interruption, since 1978. This is accompanied by the development of models aimed at reconstructing SSI by relating its variability to solar magnetic activity. The various satellite records and model reconstructions differ significantly in terms of the variation over the solar cycle, with the consequence that their application to climate models yield qualitatively different results. Here, we highlight the key discrepancies between available records and reconstructions, and discuss the possible underlying causes.

  14. The Heliosphere Through the Solar Activity Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balogh, A.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Suess, S. T.

    2006-01-01

    Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun the heliosphere has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors describe the rise in solar ESA and NASA have now unamiously agreed a third extension to operate the highly successful Ulysses spacecraft until March 2008 and, in 2007 and 2008, the European-built space probe will fly over the poles of the Sun for a third time. This will enable Ulysses to add an important chapter to its survey of the high-latitude heliosphere and this additional material would be included in a 2nd edition of this book.

  15. Study of the Solar Cycle from Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    The objectives of and benefits to be derived from a program of solar cycle research are discussed with emphasis on the role space observations will play in this venture. The strategy to be employed in the coming decade is considered as well as crucial missions, experiments, and the theoretical advances required.

  16. Ionospheric criticial frequencies and solar cycle effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Rozelot, Jean Pierre; Yiǧit, Erdal; Elias, Ana; Donmez, Burcin; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl

    2016-07-01

    The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions critical frequencies (foF1 and foF2) are investigated observationally for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We here show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (foF1) peaks at the same time with small SG numbers, while the foF2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers especially during the solar cycle 23. Thus, we may conclude that the sensitivities of ionospheric F1 and F2 region critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers are associated with different physical processes that are yet to be investigated in detail. Such new results provide further evidence that the two ionospheric regions have different responses to the solar activity. We also analyzed short term oscillatory behavior of ionospheric critical frequencies and found some solar signatures.

  17. Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics.

    PubMed

    Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

    2013-05-01

    On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996-2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427

  18. Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

    2012-01-01

    On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427

  19. Influence of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavares, M.

    2011-12-01

    This research inspects possible influence of solar cycles on earthquakes through of statistical analyses. We also discussed the mechanism that would drive the occurrence of increasing of earthquakes during solar maxima. The study was based on worldwide earthquakes events during approximately four hundred years (1600-2010). The increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also depends on the tectonic plate location. From 1600 until 1645 events increased during the Maxima in some of the tectonic plates as Pacific, Arabian and South America. The earthquakes analyzed during two grand solar minima, the Maunder (1645-1720) and the Dalton (1790-1820) showed a decrease in the number of earthquakes and the solar activity. It was observed during these minima a significant number of events at specific geological features. After the last minima (Dalton) the earthquakes pattern increased with solar maxima. The calculations showed that events increasing during solar maxima most in the Pacific, South America or Arabian until 1900. Since there were few records during these three centuries we needed additional analysis on modern data. We took the last four solar cycles events (1950-2010) and made similar calculations. The results agreed with the former calculations. It might be that the mechanism for the Sun-Earth connection relies on the solar wind speed. In both records (1600-1900) and (1950-2010) the results showed a significant increase in earthquakes events in some of the tectonic plates linked to solar maxima. The Solar wind energy striking the Earth's magnetosphere affects the entire environment because the pressure on the region increases and the magnetosphere shrinks sometimes four Earth's radii. This sudden compression causes earthquakes in specific plates. During the times of solar minima the pressure from the solar wind on the earth decreases, then the magnetosphere expands and earthquakes happen in a different pattern according to the

  20. If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell. William Dean

    2008-01-01

    Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

  1. Solar Cycle Dependence of Coronal Hole Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.

    2005-07-01

    The SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) has been used to measure the properties of hundreds of large coronal holes, that produced a variety of high-speed solar wind streams, during the past nine years. In the cases where UVCS and in situ measurements were made of the same coronal-hole plasma, high speeds in excess of 600 km/s were found in interplanetary space. UVCS has been used to observe O VI (103.2 and 103.7 nm) and H I Lyman alpha (121.6 nm) emission lines as a function of heliocentric distance. The analysis of their spectroscopic parameters allows us to identify similarities and differences among coronal holes at different phases of the solar cycle. From such measurements we can derive plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, velocity distribution anisotropies, and outflow speeds) for O5+ and protons as a function of heliocentric distance in the coronal holes. These properties, combined with other observed quantities such as white-light polarization brightness and the magnetic fluxes measured on-disk, let us analyze the coronal hole plasma properties more fully than ever before. We will present the solar cycle dependence of the above plasma parameters from the last solar minimum in 1996 to present and compare them, where possible, with the in situ solar wind properties. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NNG04GE84G to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency, and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  2. Distinguishing Solar Cycle Effects in Planetary Atmospheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aplin, K. L.; Harrison, R. G.

    2008-12-01

    As solar radiation decreases with distance from the Sun, other sources of energy, such as ionization from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), assume a greater relative importance than at the terrestrial planets. Charged particle effects could therefore be more relevant to the formation of clouds and haze at the outer planets. The long-term solar modulation of Neptune's albedo is thought to be caused by either ion-induced nucleation of cloud-forming particles, or ultraviolet (UV) radiation effects on the colour of the clouds. On the basis of the 11 year solar cycle, the statistical evidence was slightly in favour of the UV mechanism, however distinguishing unambiguously between the two mechanisms will require more than the solar cycle variation alone. A 1.68 year quasi-periodicity, uniquely present at some times from heliospheric modulation of GCR, has previously been used to discriminate between solar UV and GCR effects in terrestrial data. The cosmic ray proton monitor data from both the Voyager spacecraft show this 1.68 year modulation during the 1980s when the spacecraft were close to the outer planets, indicating the possibility for applying a similar technique as far out as Neptune.

  3. Ozone depletion during solar proton events in solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcpeters, R. D.; Jackman, C. H.

    1985-01-01

    Ozone profile data from the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet Instrument on Nimbus 7 from 1979 to the present and clear cases of ozone destruction associated with five sudden proton events (SPEs) on June 7, 1979, August 21, 1979, October 13-14, 1981, July 13, 1982, and December 8, 1982 are found. During the SPE on July 13, 1982, the largest of this solar cycle, no depletion at all at 45 km is observed, but there is a 15 percent ozone depletion at 50 km increasing to 27 percent at 55 km, all at a solar zenith angle of 85 deg. A strong variation of the observed depletion with solar zenith angle is found, with maximum depletion occurring at the largest zenith angles (near 85 deg) decreasing to near zero for angles below about 70 deg. The observed depletion is short lived, disappearing within hours of the end of the SPE.

  4. On the unusual solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shnirman, M.; Le Mouel, J.; Blanter, E.; Courtillot, V.

    2011-12-01

    We have analyzed the properties of the 27-day recurrence of solar activity, as represented by the Wolf number WN and the 10.7 cm radio flux F10.7. We study both a "shorter" period domain of the recurrence (from 25.0 to 27.3 days) and a "longer" one (from 27.3 to 31 days). In the "longer" period domain, the last solar cycle (23) is characterized by extremely low energy, at a level which is unprecedented since 1915. In the "shorter" period domain, the irregular behavior of cycle 23 manifests itself in the very low intensity, double peaked form of the energy of the absolute derivative of both WN and F10.7. Such features have not been observed since cycle 12, 140 years ago. We discuss how these unusual features of cycle 23 may affect attempts to reconstruct backwards UV/EUV emissions and also our understanding of future solar evolution and its impact on geomagnetism and climate.

  5. Solar Cycle Variations of Coronal Hole Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.; Cranmer, S. R.; Kohl, J. L.

    2005-05-01

    As of early 2005, we have measured with the SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) the physical properties of at least 136 large coronal holes that produced a variety of high-speed solar wind conditions at 1 AU. UVCS has been used to observe O VI (103.2 and 103.7 nm) and H I Lyman alpha (121.6 nm) emission lines as a function of heliocentric distance in coronal holes since 1996. The analysis of their spectroscopic parameters allows us to identify similarities and differences among coronal holes at different phases of the solar cycle. From such measurements we can derive plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, velocity distribution anisotropies, and outflow speeds) for O5+ and protons as a function of heliocentric distance in the coronal holes. These properties, combined with other observed quantities such as white-light polarization brightness and the more-or-less unipolar magnetic fluxes measured on-disk, let us map out the "allowed parameter space" of coronal hole plasma properties more fully than ever before. We will present the solar cycle dependence of the above plasma parameters from the last solar minimum in 1996 to present and compare them, where possible, with the in situ solar wind properties. We will also present an update on the pattern that is beginning to emerge, i.e., coronal holes with lower densities at a given heliocentric distance tend to exhibit faster ion outflow and higher ion temperatures. This information will thus be used to set firm empirical constraints on coronal heating and solar wind acceleration in coronal holes. In 2005, the polar coronal holes have not yet evolved to the fully quiescent minimum state seen in 1996-1997, though the next solar minimum is expected to occur in about 1.5 to 2 years. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NNG04GE84G to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency, and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  6. Solar cycle variations of magnetopause locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Němeček, Z.; Šafránková, J.; Lopez, R. E.; Dušík, Š.; Nouzák, L.; Přech, L.; Šimůnek, J.; Shue, J.-H.

    2016-07-01

    The magnetopause location is generally believed to be determined by the solar wind dynamic pressure and by the sign and value of the interplanetary magnetic field vertical (BZ) component. The contribution of other parameters is usually considered to be minor or negligible near the equatorial plane. Recent papers have shown a magnetopause expansion during intervals of a nearly radial IMF but our ability to predict the magnetopause location under steady or slowly changing upstream conditions remains rather weak even if the effect of radial magnetic field is considered. We present a statistical study based on more than 10,000 magnetopause crossings identified in the THEMIS data in the course of the last half of the solar cycle. The observed magnetopause locations are compared with an empirical magnetopause model of Shue et al. (1997) and the sources of differences between observations and model predictions are analyzed. This analysis reveals that the magnetopause location depends on the solar activity being more compressed during the solar maximum. Furthermore, we have found that, beside the solar wind dynamic pressure and vertical magnetic field component, the solar wind speed and ionospheric conductivity (F10.7 used as a proxy) are important physical quantities controlling this compression.

  7. Solar cycle evolution of the solar wind in three dimensions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rickett, B. J.; Coles, W. A.

    1983-01-01

    Measurements of the solar wind speed both in and out of the ecliptic are presented for 1971-82. The speed estimates, which were made with the interplanetary scintillation system at UC San Diego, have been compared to in situ for large, slowly evolving structures, and thus such structures can be studied up to 60 degrees north and south heliographic latitude. Annual average wind speeds are presented versus latitude for an entire solar cycle. Fast wind streams from the poles persisted through declining and low solar activity, but were closed off during four years of high activity. This evolution follows that of the polar coronal holes, as displayed by comparing averaged speed and coronal density over latitude and longitude. The most recent data (1982) show the reestablishment of large tilted polar holes and associated fast streams. Coronal magnetic field data show that the neutral sheet is confined to low latitudes at solar minimum and extends to high latitudes at solar maximum; thus the slow solar wind comes from the same latitude range as that of the neutral sheet.

  8. Solar total irradiance in cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Schmutz, W.

    2011-05-01

    Context. The most recent minimum of solar activity was deeper and longer than the previous two minima as indicated by different proxies of solar activity. This is also true for the total solar irradiance (TSI) according to the PMOD composite. Aims: The apparently unusual behaviour of the TSI has been interpreted as evidence against solar surface magnetism as the main driver of the secular change in the TSI. We test claims that the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field does not reproduce the observed TSI in cycle 23. Methods: We use sensitive, 60-min averaged MDI magnetograms and quasi-simultaneous continuum images as an input to our SATIRE-S model and calculate the TSI variation over cycle 23, sampled roughly every two weeks. The computed TSI is then compared with the PMOD composite of TSI measurements and with the data from two individual instruments, SORCE/TIM and UARS/ACRIM II, that monitored the TSI during the declining phase of cycle 23 and over the previous minimum in 1996, respectively. Results: Excellent agreement is found between the trends shown by the model and almost all sets of measurements. The only exception is the early, i.e. 1996 to 1998, PMOD data. Whereas the agreement between the model and the PMOD composite over the period 1999-2009 is almost perfect, the modelled TSI shows a steeper increase between 1996 and 1999 than implied by the PMOD composite. On the other hand, the steeper trend in the model agrees remarkably well with the ACRIM II data. A closer look at the VIRGO data, which are the basis of the PMOD composite after 1996, reveals that only one of the two VIRGO instruments, the PMO6V, shows the shallower trend present in the composite, whereas the DIARAD measurements indicate a steeper trend. Conclusions: Based on these results, we conclude that (1) the sensitivity changes of the PMO6V radiometers within VIRGO during the first two years have very likely not been correctly evaluated; and that (2) the TSI variations over cycle 23

  9. Flux-tube geometry and solar wind speed during an activity cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinto, R. F.; Brun, A. S.; Rouillard, A. P.

    2016-07-01

    Context. The solar wind speed at 1 AU shows cyclic variations in latitude and in time which reflect the evolution of the global background magnetic field during the activity cycle. It is commonly accepted that the terminal (asymptotic) wind speed in a given magnetic flux-tube is generally anti-correlated with its total expansion ratio, which motivated the definition of widely used semi-empirical scaling laws relating one to the other. In practice, such scaling laws require ad hoc corrections (especially for the slow wind in the vicinities of streamer/coronal hole boundaries) and empirical fits to in situ spacecraft data. A predictive law based solely on physical principles is still missing. Aims: We test whether the flux-tube expansion is the controlling factor of the wind speed at all phases of the cycle and at all latitudes (close to and far from streamer boundaries) using a very large sample of wind-carrying open magnetic flux-tubes. We furthermore search for additional physical parameters based on the geometry of the coronal magnetic field which have an influence on the terminal wind flow speed. Methods: We use numerical magneto-hydrodynamical simulations of the corona and wind coupled to a dynamo model to determine the properties of the coronal magnetic field and of the wind velocity (as a function of time and latitude) during a whole 11-yr activity cycle. These simulations provide a large statistical ensemble of open flux-tubes which we analyse conjointly in order to identify relations of dependence between the wind speed and geometrical parameters of the flux-tubes which are valid globally (for all latitudes and moments of the cycle). Results: Our study confirms that the terminal (asymptotic) speed of the solar wind depends very strongly on the geometry of the open magnetic flux-tubes through which it flows. The total flux-tube expansion is more clearly anti-correlated with the wind speed for fast rather than for slow wind flows, and effectively controls the

  10. On the seat of the solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gough, D.

    1981-01-01

    A discussion of some of the issues raised in connection with the seat of the solar cycle are presented. Is the cycle controlled by a strictly periodic oscillator that operates in the core, or is it a turbulent dynamo confined to the convection zone and possibly a thin boundary layer beneath it? Sunspot statistics are discussed, with a view to ascertaining the length of the memory of the cycle, without drawing a definitive conclusion. Also discussed are some of the processes that might bring about variations delta L and delta R in the luminosity and the radius of the photosphere. It appears that the ratio W = delta lnR/delta lnL increases with the depth of the disturbance that produces the variations, so that imminent observations might determine whether or not the principal dynamical processes are confined to only the outer layers of the Sun.

  11. CHARACTERISTICS OF SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOWS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23

    SciTech Connect

    Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M. E-mail: antia@tifr.res.i

    2010-07-01

    We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the 'ring diagram' technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find that the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.

  12. Characteristics of Solar Meridional Flows during Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M.

    2010-07-01

    We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the "ring diagram" technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find that the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.

  13. A solar cycle lengthwise series of solar diameter measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penna, J. L.; Andrei, A. H.; Boscardin, S. C.; Neto, E. Reis; d'Ávila, V. A.

    2010-02-01

    The measurements of the solar photospheric diameter rank among the most difficult astronomic observations. Reasons for this are the fuzzy definition of the limb, the SNR excess, and the adverse daytime seeing condition. As a consequence there are very few lengthy and consistent time series of such measurements. Using modern techniques, just the series from the IAG/USP and from Calern/OCA span more than one solar cycle. The Rio de Janeiro Group observations started in 1997, and therefore in 2008 one complete solar cycle time span can be analyzed. The series shares common principles of observation and analysis with the ones afore mentioned, and it is complementary on time to them. The distinctive features are the larger number of individual points and the improved precision. The series contains about 25,000 single observations, evenly distributed on a day-by-day basis. The typical error of a single observation is half an arc-second, enabling us to investigate variations at the expected level of tens of arc-second on a weekly basis. These features prompted to develop a new methodology for the investigation of the heliophysical scenarios leading to the observed variations, both on time and on heliolatitude. The algorithms rely on running averages and time shifts to derive the correlation and statistical incertitude for the comparison of the long term and major episodes variations of the solar diameter against activity markers. The results bring support to the correlation between the diameter variation and the solar activity, but evidentiating two different regimens for the long term trend and the major solar events.

  14. Solar cycle variations of thermospheric composition at the solstices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Wang, Wenbin; Zhang, Yongliang

    2016-04-01

    We examine the solar cycle variability of thermospheric composition (O/N2) at the solstices. Our observational and modeling studies show that the summer-to-winter latitudinal gradient of O/N2 is small at solar minimum but large at solar maximum; O/N2 is larger at solar maximum than at solar minimum on a global-mean basis; there is a seasonal asymmetry in the solar cycle variability of O/N2, with large solar cycle variations in the winter hemisphere and small solar cycle variations in the summer hemisphere. Model analysis reveals that vertical winds decrease the temperature-driven solar cycle variability in the vertical gradient of O/N2 in the summer hemisphere but increase it in the winter hemisphere; consequently, the vertical gradient of O/N2 does not change much in the summer hemisphere over a solar cycle, but it increases greatly from solar minimum to solar maximum in the winter hemisphere; this seasonal asymmetry in the solar cycle variability in the vertical gradient of O/N2 causes a seasonal asymmetry in the vertical advection of O/N2, with small solar cycle variability in the summer hemisphere and large variability in the winter hemisphere, which in turn drives the observed seasonal asymmetry in the solar cycle variability of O/N2. Since the equatorial ionization anomaly suppresses upwelling in the summer hemisphere and strengthens downwelling in the winter hemisphere through plasma-neutral collisional heating and ion drag, locations and relative magnitudes of the equatorial ionization anomaly crests and their solar cycle variabilities can significantly impact the summer-to-winter gradients of O/N2 and their solar cycle variability.

  15. Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

    PubMed Central

    Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

  16. Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24.

    PubMed

    Luhmann, Janet G; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

    2013-05-01

    The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is 'typical' solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

  17. Brayton cycle solarized advanced gas turbine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    Described is the development of a Brayton Engine/Generator Set for solar thermal to electrical power conversion, authorized under DOE/NASA Contract DEN3-181. The objective was to design, fabricate, assemble, and test a small, hybrid, 20-kW Brayton-engine-powered generator set. The latter, called a power conversion assembly (PCA), is designed to operate with solar energy obtained from a parobolic dish concentrator, 11 meters in diameter, or with fossil energy supplied by burning fuels in a combustor, or by a combination of both (hybrid model). The CPA consists of the Brayton cycle engine, a solar collector, a belt-driven 20-kW generator, and the necessary control systems for automatic operation in solar-only, fuel-only, and hybrid modes to supply electrical power to a utility grid. The original configuration of the generator set used the GTEC Model GTP36-51 gas turbine engine for the PCA prime mover. However, subsequent development of the GTEC Model AGT101 led to its selection as the powersource for the PCA. Performance characteristics of the latter, thermally coupled to a solar collector for operation in the solar mode, are presented. The PCA was successfully demonstrated in the fuel-only mode at the GTEC Phoenix, Arizona, facilities prior to its shipment to Sandia National Laboratory in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for installation and testing on a test bed concentractor (parabolic dish). Considerations relative to Brayton-engine development using the all-ceramic AGT101 when it becomes available, which would satisfy the DOE heat engine efficiency goal of 35 to 41 percent, are also discussed in the report.

  18. An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2004-01-01

    Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

  19. Solar Cycle Changes of Coronal Streamer Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strachan, L.; Baham, M.; Miralles, M.; Panasyuk, A.

    2003-12-01

    We have measured UV spectroscopic parameters, as a function of height for more than 30 coronal streamers in order to identify similarities between streamers at different phases of the solar cycle. For the period from 1996-2002, we provide line intensities, line widths, and line ratios for the O VI 1032/1037 doublet and intensities and line widths for the H I Ly-alpha line for these streamers. From such measurements we can derive plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, and outflow velocities) for O5+ and protons as a function of heliocentric height (1.5 > r/Ro > 5) in the streamers. This information is useful for setting empirical constraints on coronal heating and solar wind acceleration in streamers. This work is supported by NASA Grant NAG5-12781 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory and NASA subcontract OGSP21010200061SAO awarded to SAO through a grant to Southern Universty at Baton Rouge.

  20. Solar cycle variations of coronal structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucif, M. L.; Koutchmy, S.

    1989-01-01

    Using eclipse pictures of the solar corona, properly scaled drawings have been prepared to constitute a short atlas of coronal structures. These drawings have been used to extract 2 parameters which are further considered with respect to the sunspot number and the sunspot cycle: the extension of polar regions free of coronal streamers and the average radial deviation of large streamers. The flattening index deduced from the photometric analysis of a larger number of eclipse pictures is also considered. The out-of-phase behavior of several coronal parameters is confirmed. The results are discussed in the light of the analysis of the green-line activity as observed during 30 years at the Pic du Midi Observatory. The N-S asymmetric behavior of the activity in different solar hemispheres and the occurrence of a powerful secondary maximum of coronal activity are discussed.

  1. Solar neutrinos, solar flares, solar activity cycle and the proton decay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raychaudhuri, P.

    1985-01-01

    It is shown that there may be a correlation between the galactic cosmic rays and the solar neutrino data, but it appears that the neutrino flux which may be generated during the large solar cosmic ray events cannot in any way effect the solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. Only initial stage of mixing between the solar core and solar outer layers after the sunspot maximum in the solar activity cycle can explain the higher (run number 27 and 71) of solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. But solar flare induced atmospheric neutrino flux may have effect in the nucleon decay detector on the underground. The neutrino flux from solar cosmic rays may be a useful guide to understand the background of nucleon decay, magnetic monopole search, and the detection of neutrino flux in sea water experiment.

  2. Objective CME detection over the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robbrecht, E.; Berghmans, D.

    We have developed a software package for 'Computer Aided CME Tracking' (CACTus), that autonomously detects CMEs in image sequences from LASCO. The crux of the CACTus software is the detection of CMEs as bright ridges in [height, time] maps using the Hough transform. The output is a list of events, similar to the classic catalogs, with principle angle, angular width and velocity estimation for each CME. In contrast to catalogs assembled by human operators, these CME detections by software can be faster and possibly also more objective, as the detection criterion is written explicitly in a program. Especially on the timescale of a solar cycle, it is questionnable whether human, visual CME detection is stable, as the operator gains experience or personnel is replaced. In this paper we overview the latest improvements of CACTUS and validate its performance by comparing the CACTus output with the classical, visually assembled CME catalogs. Discrepancies between the classical catalogs and the CACTUS catalogs are discussed. Such discrepancies highlight not only the performance of CACTUS but also the caveats of the classical catalogs. Indeed, CACTUS sometimes finds CMEs that are not listed in the catalogs or interpreted differently (eg halo CME or not). It is important to know these caveats when using the CME catalogs as input for statistical CME studies over the solar cycle. The near realtime output of the software is available on the web(http://sidc.oma.be/cactus) and is updated daily.

  3. The Progress of Solar Cycle 24 at High Latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altrock, R. C.

    2010-06-01

    The "extended" solar cycle 24 began in 1999 near 70° latitude, similarly to cycle 23 in 1989 and cycle 22 in 1979. The extended cycle is manifested by persistent Fe XIV coronal emission appearing near 70° latitude and slowly migrating towards the equator, merging with the latitudes of sunspots and active regions (the "butterfly diagram") after several years. Cycle 24 began its migration at a rate 40% slower than the previous two solar cycles, thus indicating the possibility of a peculiar cycle. However, the onset of the "Rush to the Poles" of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission, which has been a precursor to solar maximum in recent cycles (cf. Altrock 2003), has just been identified in the northern hemisphere. Peculiarly, this "rush" is leisurely, at only 50% of the rate in the previous two cycles. The properties of the current "Rush to the Poles" yields an estimate of 2013 or 2014 for solar maximum.

  4. Deep space telecommunications and the solar cycle: A reappraisal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berman, A. L.

    1978-01-01

    Observations of density enhancement in the near corona at solar cycle (sunspot) maximum have rather uncritically been interpreted to apply equally well to the extended corona, thus generating concern about the quality of outer planet navigational data at solar cycle maximum. Spacecraft have been deployed almost continuously during the recently completed solar cycle 20, providing two powerful new coronal investigatory data sources: (1) in-situ spacecraft plasma measurements at approximately 1 AU, and (2) plasma effects on monochromatic spacecraft signals at all signal closest approach points. A comprehensive review of these (solar cycle 20) data lead to the somewhat surprising conclusions that for the region of interest of navigational data, the highest levels of charged particle corruption of navigational data can be expected to occur at solar cycle minimum, rather than solar cycle maximum, as previously believed.

  5. One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Expected?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, A.; Ozguc, A.

    2014-04-01

    We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot-group data collected since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, and H classes according to the Zurich classification], the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated how many small and large sunspot groups occurred, their sunspot numbers [SSN], and the Zurich numbers [ Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used the ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to occur later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is expected for Solar Cycle 24.

  6. Influenza pandemics, solar activity cycles, and vitamin D.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Daniel P

    2010-05-01

    There is historic evidence that influenza pandemics are associated with solar activity cycles (the Schwabe-cycle of about 11-years periodicity). The hypothesis is presented and developed that influenza pandemics are associated with solar control of vitamin D levels in humans which waxes and wanes in concert with solar cycle dependent ultraviolet radiation. It is proposed that this solar cycle dependence arises both directly from cyclic control of the amount of ultraviolet radiation as well as indirectly through cyclic control of atmospheric circulation and dynamics. PMID:20056531

  7. Variations of the solar wind and solar cycle in the last 300 years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feynman, J.; Silverman, S.

    1980-01-01

    The past history of the solar wind and solar cycle, inferred from records of geomagnetics and aurora, is examined. Records show that the solar wind apparently varied in a systematic manner throughout the period from 1770 to 1857 and that the period around 1810 resembled the 1901 minimum geomagnetic disturbance. Results show that the solar wind and hence the Sun changes on a time scale long compared to a solar cycle and short compared to the Maunder minimum. The inclusion of a study on the solar wind and solar cycle variations for the SCADM mission is discussed.

  8. Heliospheric Observations in the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jian, L. K.; Luhmann, J. G.; Russell, C. T.; Szabo, A.

    2012-12-01

    In solar cycle 24 (the beginning of year 2009 - present), the solar polar field started with a magnitude as weak as a half of initial field strength for previous solar cycles 21-23. As the cycle 24 rises, the solar polar field has been approaching its reversal very gradually, especially after January 2011. The approach speed is less than a half of previous cycles. The pace needs to increase for the Sun to reach the cycle maximum (field reversal) in 2013 as predicted. Consistent with the small sunspot number and weak solar field, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind dynamic pressure at 1 AU are weaker than previous cycles, resulting in less geomagnetic activity. In addition, based on our long-term study of large-scale solar wind structures, including interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), stream interaction regions (SIRs), and their associated shocks at 1 AU from 1995 to present, we have compared their properties in this rising phase with those of Cycle 23 and study their possible influence on geomagnetic activity. From 2009 to 2011, the ICME occurrence rate increases from 10 to 30 per year, not much less than the rising phase of cycle 23. However, these ICMEs are usually weaker and slower than last rising phase. The occurrence rate of SIRs decreases slightly from 2009 to 2011, similar to the rising phase of last cycle. As the sunspots show a north-south asymmetry, we will investigate the heliospheric response of this. By dividing the solar wind into positive (anti-sunward) and negative (sunward) sectors depending on the IMF polarity, we have compared the solar wind parameters of the two polarity sectors from the beginning of Solar Cycle 21 to present. The sector asymmetry is pronounced during the solar minimum 23/24. We will study how this asymmetry changes in the rising phase of cycle 24.

  9. Variability of Clouds Over a Solar Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yung, Yuk L.

    2002-01-01

    One of the most controversial aspects of climate studies is the debate over the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Historical data strongly suggest that the Little Ice Age (from 1550 to 1850 AD when the mean temperature was colder by about 1 C) was most likely caused by variability of the sun and not greenhouse molecules (e.g., CO2). However, the known variability in solar irradiance and modulation of cosmic rays provides too little energy, by many orders of magnitude, to lead to climate changes in the troposphere. The conjecture is that there is a 'trigger mechanism'. This idea may now be subjected to a quantitative test using recent global datasets. Using the best available modern cloud data from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Svensmark and Friis-Christensen found a correlation of a large variation (3-4%) in global cloud cover with the solar cycle. The work has been extended by Svensmark and Marsh and Svensmark. The implied forcing on climate is an order of magnitude greater than any previous claims. Are clouds the long sought trigger mechanism? This discovery is potentially so important that it should be corroborated by an independent database, and, furthermore, it must be shown that alternative explanations (i.e., El Nino) can be ruled out. We used the ISCCP data in conjunction with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data to carry out in in depth study of the cloud trigger mechanism.

  10. Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements

  11. Internal-cycle Variation of Solar Differential Rotation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, K. J.; Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.

    2013-06-01

    The latitudinal distributions of the yearly mean rotation rates measured by Suzuki in 1998 and 2012 and Pulkkinen & Tuominen in 1998 are utilized to investigate internal-cycle variation of solar differential rotation. The rotation rate at the solar equator seems to have decreased since cycle 10 onward. The coefficient B of solar differential rotation, which represents the latitudinal gradient of rotation, is found to be smaller in the several years after the minimum of a solar cycle than in the several years after the maximum time of the cycle, and it peaks several years after the maximum time of the solar cycle. The internal-cycle variation of the solar rotation rates looks similar in profile to that of the coefficient B. A new explanation is proposed to address such a solar-cycle-related variation of the solar rotation rates. Weak magnetic fields may more effectively reflect differentiation at low latitudes with high rotation rates than at high latitudes with low rotation rates, and strong magnetic fields may more effectively repress differentiation at relatively low latitudes than at high latitudes. The internal-cycle variation is inferred as the result of both the latitudinal migration of the surface torsional pattern and the repression of strong magnetic activity in differentiation.

  12. INTERNAL-CYCLE VARIATION OF SOLAR DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION

    SciTech Connect

    Li, K. J.; Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.

    2013-06-01

    The latitudinal distributions of the yearly mean rotation rates measured by Suzuki in 1998 and 2012 and Pulkkinen and Tuominen in 1998 are utilized to investigate internal-cycle variation of solar differential rotation. The rotation rate at the solar equator seems to have decreased since cycle 10 onward. The coefficient B of solar differential rotation, which represents the latitudinal gradient of rotation, is found to be smaller in the several years after the minimum of a solar cycle than in the several years after the maximum time of the cycle, and it peaks several years after the maximum time of the solar cycle. The internal-cycle variation of the solar rotation rates looks similar in profile to that of the coefficient B. A new explanation is proposed to address such a solar-cycle-related variation of the solar rotation rates. Weak magnetic fields may more effectively reflect differentiation at low latitudes with high rotation rates than at high latitudes with low rotation rates, and strong magnetic fields may more effectively repress differentiation at relatively low latitudes than at high latitudes. The internal-cycle variation is inferred as the result of both the latitudinal migration of the surface torsional pattern and the repression of strong magnetic activity in differentiation.

  13. A prediction of geomagnetic activity for solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Wise, J. E.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

    1999-04-01

    Using a database of 13 solar cycles of geomagnetic aa data, we obtained correlations between cycle averages of geomagnetic activity (and sunspot number) and the numbers of days with disturbance levels above certain aa thresholds. We then used a precursor-type relation to predict an average aa index of 23.1 nT for cycle 23 and inserted this average aa value into the above correlations to forecast the integral size distribution of geomagnetic activity for the new cycle. The predicted size distribution is similar to that observed for cycles 21 and 22 but most closely resembles that of solar cycle 18 (1944-1954), which was slightly smaller than cycles 21 and 22. Our prediction agrees reasonably well with the ``climatology-based'' forecast made by the intergovernmental panel tasked to predict geomagnetic activity for the coming solar cycle and is significantly different from their ``precursor-based'' prediction.

  14. The solar cycle - A central-source wave theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bracewell, R. N.

    1989-01-01

    Studies stimulated by the interpretation of the Elatina formation in South Australia as a fossil record of solar activity have led to discoveries of previously unnoticed features of the sunspot cycle record and to a theory of origin of the sunspot cycle that postulates a solar core in torsional motion and a magnetomechanical wave that couples to the photosphere. The considerations supporting the solar interpretation of the Elatina formation are gathered together.

  15. Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2014-01-01

    We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of

  16. The Solar Non-activity Cycle of Polar Coronal Holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirk, M. S.; Pesnell, W. D.; Young, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    After the unusually extended minimum in 2008 and 2009, solar cycle 24 continues to be an exceptionally weak cycle both in sunspot number and number of large magnetic storms. Coronal holes offer a direct measurement of the non-activity solar cycle, a missing link in our understanding of solar cycle progression. They are prevalent during solar minimum, non-axisymmetric, and are stable. Polar coronal holes are regularly observed capping the northern and southern solar poles in EUV images of the corona and are understood as the primary source of the fast solar wind. We make measurements of these features from 1996 through 2015 using four different NASA imagers: SOHO EIT, STEREO A and B EUVI, and SDO AIA. A measurement of the axial symmetry of the polar holes is seen to have clear solar cycle dependence. Polar coronal holes are aligned with the solar rotation axis during minimum and have a maximum asymmetry between holes of about 14 degrees in the declining phase of the current solar cycle.

  17. Some problems in coupling solar activity to meteorological phenomena

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dessler, A. J.

    1975-01-01

    The development of a theory of coupling of solar activity to meteorological phenomena is hindered by the difficulties of devising a mechanism that can modify the behavior of the troposphere while employing only a negligible amount of energy compared with the energy necessary to drive the normal meteorological system, and determining how such a mechanism can effectively couple some relevant magnetospheric process into the troposphere in such a way as to influence the weather. A clue to the nature of the interaction between the weather and solar activity might be provided by the fact that most solar activity undergoes a definite 11-yr cycle, and meteorological phenomena undergo either no closely correlated variation, an 11-yr variation, or a 22-yr variation.

  18. Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

    DOEpatents

    Bharathan, D.; Bohn, M.S.; Williams, T.A.

    1995-05-23

    A hybrid combined cycle power plant is described including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production. 1 figure.

  19. Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

    DOEpatents

    Bharathan, Desikan; Bohn, Mark S.; Williams, Thomas A.

    1995-01-01

    A hybrid combined cycle power plant including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production.

  20. Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2009-01-01

    Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

  1. Solar Ultraviolet Irradiance Variability During the Decline of Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snow, M. A.; McClintock, W. E.; Woods, T. N.; Harder, J. W.; Richard, E. C.

    2010-12-01

    Observations from the SOLar-STellar Irradiance Comparision Experiment (SOLSTICE) on the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) began in 2003 and continue through the present. This time period includes the decline of solar cycle 23 through solar minimum. SOLSTICE measures solar irradiance from 115 nm to 300 nm with a spectral resolution of 0.1 nm. The variability seen by SORCE SOLSTICE is greater than the variability recorded by the instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite(UARS). This poster will describe the magnitude and uncertainty of solar irradiance variability in the ultraviolet part of the spectrum during the SORCE mission with comparisons to irradiance models based on UARS measurements.

  2. Modeling studies of ionospheric variations during an intense solar cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Balan, N.; Bailey, G.J.; Moffett, R.J.

    1994-09-01

    The authors study the ionization behavior of the ionosphere in response to the intense solar cycle 21, by looking at relationships between neutral winds, neutral densities, and solar EUV fluxes to see how they contribute to the observed saturation, or effective leveling of ionization rates at high solar activity levels. They find that the nonlinear behaviors of neutral wind and neutral density have no effect on this saturation behavior. They do find that the expected linear relationship between solar EUV and UV flux and solar activity index breaks down at intense activity levels, that the ionosphere responds linearly to the solar EUV and UV flux, and this is responsible for the apparent saturation.

  3. Major Space Weather Events during the Weak Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

    2012-01-01

    We report on the level of solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 as the cycles build toward the corresponding solar maxima. The prolonged minimum period that followed solar cycle 23 and the weaker magnetic field at the poles seem to have resulted in a weaker level of activity during cycle 24. The double speak structure often observed in the maximum phases seems to be present during cycle 24, with the first peak having a sunspot number of only N90. large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, major geomagnetic storms, and radio-emitting interplanetary shocks have been observed in relatively sma:ier numbers. While the number of large SEP events during the rise phase of cycles 24 is not too different from that of cycle 23, they are generally less intense. Five ground level enhancement (GlE) events occurred up to the first activity peak in cycle 23, while a lone GlE event has been observed during the corresponding phase in cycle 24. There were 35 large (Dst S -100 nT) geomagnetic storms during the first 4.5 years of cycle 23, while only 5 occurred during cycle 24. The subdued activity during cycle 23 is consistent with the low numbers of type II radio bursts, full halo CMEs, and interplanetary shocks.

  4. DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, Michael; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.

    2013-01-01

    It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992; Anderson and Koons, 1996; Anderson, 2012). These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka (1992). These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

  5. DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, M.; Parker, L. Neergaard; Minow, J. I.

    2013-01-01

    It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions. These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka. These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

  6. Composite Mg II solar activity index for solar cycles 21 and 22

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

    1993-01-01

    On the basis of version 1.0 of the composite MG II solar activity index data set, it is shown that the change in the 27-day running average of the Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is about 8 percent for solar cycle 21 and about 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets are developed for each instrument to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. A set of composite scale factors are derived for use with the present composite MG index. Near 205 cm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric chemistry, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is about 10 +/- 1 percent using the composite Mg II index (version 1.0) and scale factors.

  7. Forecasting the Peak of the Present Solar Activity Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamid, Rabab; Marzouk, Beshir

    2016-07-01

    Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aa min. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between RM and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives RM24t = 101.9with rise time Tr = 4.5 Y. For the even cycles RM24e = 108.3 with rise time Tr = 3.9 Y. Based on the average aa min. index for the year of sunspot minimum cycles (13 - 23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be RMaa = 116.5 for both the total and even cycles. Application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 146, which are over estimation. Our result indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

  8. Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

    2013-06-01

    The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

  9. A decrease in solar and geomagnetic activity from cycle 19 to cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gvishiani, A. D.; Starostenko, V. I.; Sumaruk, Yu. P.; Soloviev, A. A.; Legostaeva, O. V.

    2015-05-01

    Variations in the solar and geomagnetic activity from cycle 19 to cycle 24 were considered based on data from the magnetic observatories of the Russian-Ukrainian INTERMAGNET segment and international centers of data on solar-terrestrial physics. It has been indicated that activity decreases over the course of time. This is especially evident during the cycle 24 growth phase. The possible causes and consequences of a decrease in geomagnetic activity were analyzed.

  10. White-light corona and solar polar magnetic field strength over solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rušin, V.; Saniga, M.; Komžík, R.

    2014-10-01

    We discuss the large-scale structure of the solar corona, in particular its helmet streamers, as observed during total solar eclipses around maxima of solar cycles and make its comparison with solar polar magnetic field strength as observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) since 1976. Even though the magnetic field strength at the solar poles around cycle minima decreased minimally twice in the last forty years, distributions of helmet streamers around the Sun in different cycles around cycle maxima remain nearly the same. This indicates that large-scale magnetic structures governing the shape and evolution of helmet streamers must be of a different nature than those related with solar polar fields.

  11. Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

    2012-06-01

    The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

  12. Weak ionization of the global ionosphere in solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Y. Q.; Shi, H.; Xiao, Z.; Zhang, D. H.

    2014-07-01

    Following prolonged and extremely quiet solar activity from 2008 to 2009, the 24th solar cycle started slowly. It has been almost 5 years since then. The measurement of ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) shows the fact that solar activity has been significantly lower in the first half of cycle 24, compared to the average levels of cycles 19 to 23; the data of global average total electron content (TEC) confirm that the global ionosphere around the cycle 24 peak is much more weakly ionized, in contrast to cycle 23. The weak ionization has been more notable since the year 2012, when both the ionosphere and solar activity were expected to be approaching their maximum level. The undersupply of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance somewhat continues after the 2008-2009 minimum, and is considered to be the main cause of the weak ionization. It further implies that the thermosphere and ionosphere in the first solar cycle of this millennium would probably differ from what we have learned from the previous cycles of the space age.

  13. ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES

    SciTech Connect

    De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.

    2013-06-20

    We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots between the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.

  14. Analysis of Sunspot Area over Two Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.

    2013-06-01

    We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots between the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.

  15. Solar Cycle Characteristics and Their Relationship with Dynamo Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otkidychev, P. A.; Popova, H.; Popov, V.

    2015-12-01

    We try to establish the correlation between different parameters of “butterfly-diagrams” derived from the analysis of solar observational data for the 12-23 solar activity cycles and the values in the models of α-Ω­dynamo using RGO - NASA/Marshall data set. We have ascertained that there is a linear relationship between S and BT/L for all the investigated cycles, where S is the mean area of the sunspots (umbrae), B is the mean magnetic field strength, T is duration of a cycle and L is the mean latitude of the sunspots in a cycle.

  16. Solar flux and its variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, E. V. P.; Gottlieb, D. M.

    1975-01-01

    Data are presented on the solar irradiance as derived from a number of sources. An attempt was made to bring these data onto a uniform scale. Summation of fluxes at all wavelengths yields a figure of 1357.826 for the solar constant. Estimates are made of the solar flux variations due to flares, active regions (slowly varying component), 27-day period, and the 11-yr cycle. Solar activity does not produce a significant variation in the value of the solar constant. Variations in the X-ray and EUV portions of the solar flux may be several orders of magnitude during solar activity, especially at times of major flares. It is established that these short wavelength flux enhancements cause significant changes in the terrestrial ionosphere.

  17. Solar Cycle 23: Variation of the Solar Corona in the Ultraviolet from Solar Minimum to Solar Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.; Panasyuk, A. V.; Strachan, L.; Gardner, L. D.; Suleiman, R.; Cranmer, S. R.; Kohl, J. L.

    2001-06-01

    UVCS/SOHO measurements of H I Ly-alpha and O VI (103.2 nm and 103.7 nm) intensities in the solar corona have been made from solar Cycle 23's minimum in 1996 to its current maximum. At solar minimum, the corona consisted of large coronal holes at the poles and quiescent streamers at the equator. During the approach to solar maximum, equatorial coronal holes and high latitude streamers became more conspicuous. Recently, coronal holes at higher latitudes have reappeared, allowing a comparison to be made of O VI intensities and line widths of coronal holes at different latitudes. We also characterize the variation of coronal hole properties with height, and location over the solar cycle. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NAG5-10093 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution)

  18. Solar Cycle 24: Where are you?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, Gary A.; Cookson, A.; Preminger, D.

    2009-05-01

    Photometric images have been obtained on a daily basis since 1986 at the San Fernando Observatory. We will compare sunspot and facular areas from cycle 22 with those of cycle 23. Both spot areas and facular areas were lower during the maximum of cycle 23 compared to cycle 22. The distribution in spot areas will be compared. The extended minimum in spot area following cycle 23 is delaying the beginning of cycle 24. This work has been partially supported by NSF grant ATM-0533511.

  19. Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meftah, Mustapha

    2015-08-01

    One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

  20. Iron-rich solar particle events measured by SOHO/ERNE during two solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raukunen, O.; Valtonen, E.; Vainio, R.

    2016-04-01

    Aims: We study the differences in the heavy ion composition of solar energetic particle (SEP) events between solar cycles 23 and 24. Methods: We have surveyed the SOHO/ERNE heavy ion data from the beginning of solar cycle 23 until the end of June 2015, that is, well into the declining phase of cycle 24. We used this long observation period to study the properties of heavy ions (from C to Fe) and to compare the two solar cycles in this respect. We surveyed the data for SEP events with enhancements in the Fe/C and Fe/O intensity ratios in the energy range 5-15 MeV per nucleon, and associated the events with solar flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) when possible. We studied the properties of heavy ions in these events and compared the average relative abundances of heavy ions between the two solar cycles. Results: We found that fewer days had C and O intensities higher than ~10 -3 cm-2 sr-1 s-1 (MeVn-1)-1 during solar cycle 24 than during cycle 23. For Fe this difference was clear even at lower intensities. We also found that fewer days had Fe/(C+O) > 0.183 during cycle 24. We identified 86 SEP events with at least one Fe-rich day, 65 of which occurred during cycle 23 and only 21 during cycle 24. We found that impulsive events have been almost completely absent during cycle 24. Mean abundances of heavy ions in the events were found to be significantly lower during cycle 24 than in cycle 23. Our results reflect the reduced solar activity in cycle 24 and indicate lower efficiency of particle acceleration processes for both gradual and impulsive SEP events in cycle 24.

  1. Solar Cycle Spectral Irradiance Variation and Stratospheric Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stolarski, R. S.; Swartz, W. H.; Jackman, C. H.; Fleming, E. L.

    2011-12-01

    Recent measurements from the SIM instrument on the SORCE satellite have been interpreted by Harder et al (Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07801, doi:10.1029/2008GL036797, 2009) as implying a different spectral irradiance variation over the solar cycle than that put forward by Lean (Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2425-2428, 2000). When we inserted this new wavelength dependent solar cycle variation into our 3D CCM we found a different solar cycle dependence of the ozone concentration as a function of altitude from that we derived using the traditional Lean wavelength dependence. Examination of these results led us to realize that the main issue is the solar cycle variation of radiation at wavelengths less than 240 nm versus the solar cycle variation of radiation at wavelengths between 240 nm and 300 nm. The impact of wavelengths less than 240 nm occurs through photodissociation of O2 leading to the production of ozone. The impact of wavelengths between 240 nm and 300 nm occurs through photodissociation of O3 leading to an increase in O atoms and enhanced ozone destruction. Thus one wavelength region gives an in-phase relationship of ozone with the solar cycle while the other wavelength region gives an out-of-phase relationship of ozone with the solar cycle. We have used the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) photochemistry transport model to examine this relationship in more detail. We calculate the altitude and latitude sensitivity of ozone to changes in the solar UV irradiance as a function of wavelength. These results can be used to construct the ozone response to arbitrary wavelength dependencies of solar UV variation.

  2. Forecast for solar cycle 23 activity: a progress report

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahluwalia, H. S.

    2001-08-01

    At the 25th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) at Durban, South Africa, I announced the discovery of a three cycle quasi-periodicity in the ion chamber data string assembled by me, for the 1937 to 1994 period (Conf. Pap., v. 2, p. 109, 1997). It corresponded in time with a similar quasi-periodicity observed in the dataset for the planetary index Ap. At the 26th ICRC at Salt Lake City, UT, I reported on our analysis of the Ap data to forecast the amplitude of solar cycle 23 activity (Conf. Pap., v. 2, pl. 260, 1999). I predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17), notwithstanding the early exuberant forecasts of some solar astronomers that cycle 23, "may be one of the greatest cycles in recent times, if not the greatest." Sunspot number data up to April 2001 indicate that our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We review the solar, interplanetary and geophysical data and describe the important lessons learned from this experience. 1. Introduction Ohl (1971) was the first to realize that Sun may be sending us a subliminal message as to its intent for its activity (Sunspot Numbers, SSN) in the next cycle. He posited that the message was embedded in the geomagnetic activity (given by sum Kp). Schatten at al (1978) suggested that Ohl hypothesis could be understood on the basis of the model proposed by Babcock (1961) who suggested that the high latitude solar poloidal fields, near a minimum, emerge as the toroidal fields on opposite sides of the solar equator. This is known as the Solar Dynamo Model. One can speculate that the precursor poloidal solar field is entrained in the high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) from the coronal holes which are observed at Earth's orbit during the descending phase of the previous cycle. The interaction

  3. Cosmic Ray Helium Intensities over the Solar Cycle from ACE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeNolfo, G. A.; Yanasak, N. E.; Binns, W. R.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; George, J. S.; Hink. P. L.; Israel, M. H.; Lave, K.; Leske, R. A.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Moskalenko, I. V.; Ogliore, R.; Stone, E. C.; Von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Wiedenback, M. E.

    2007-01-01

    Observations of cosmic-ray helium energy spectra provide important constraints on cosmic ray origin and propagation. However, helium intensities measured at Earth are affected by solar modulation, especially below several GeV/nucleon. Observations of helium intensities over a solar cycle are important for understanding how solar modulation affects galactic cosmic ray intensities and for separating the contributions of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays. The Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) on ACE has been measuring cosmic ray isotopes, including helium, since 1997 with high statistical precision. We present helium elemental intensities between approx. 10 to approx. 100 MeV/nucleon from the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) and CRIS observations over a solar cycle and compare these results with the observations from other satellite and balloon-borne instruments, and with GCR transport and solar modulation models.

  4. Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

    2009-04-01

    The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

  5. Forecasting decadal and shorter time-scale solar cycle features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2016-07-01

    Solar energetic particles and magnetic fields reach the Earth through the interplanetary medium and affect it in various ways, producing beautiful aurorae, but also electrical blackouts and damage to our technology-dependent economy. The root of energetic solar outputs is the solar activity cycle, which is most likely caused by dynamo processes inside the Sun. It is a formidable task to accurately predict the amplitude, onset and peak timings of a solar cycle. After reviewing all solar cycle prediction methods, including empirical as well as physical model-based schemes, I will describe what we have learned from both validation and nonvalidation of cycle 24 forecasts, and how to refine the model-based schemes for upcoming cycle 25 forecasts. Recent observations indicate that within a solar cycle there are shorter time-scale 'space weather' features, such as bursts of various forms of activity with approximately one year periodicity. I will demonstrate how global tachocline dynamics could play a crucial role in producing such space weather. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

  6. Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, Aleksandr

    Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone

  7. On solar oblateness measurements during the current solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meftah, M.; Hauchecorne, A.; Irbah, A.; Bush, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    The rotation of the Sun on itself involves a flatness of the Polar Regions. The solar oblateness results from the rotation of the whole solar interior and the distribution of its mass according to the depth. Thus, possible diagnostic of the internal rotation is provided by the solar oblateness. The solar oblateness also places constraints on general relativity. Indeed, the modern era of measurements of the solar oblateness began in the 1960s with Dicke's measurements, which were useful in understanding the perihelion precession of Mercury's orbit, one of the classical tests of general relativity. Thus, for various reasons, it is necessary to better know the solar oblateness value and to study its dependence with the solar activity. Based on measurements collected from various instruments over the past 50 years, the measured solar equator-to-pole radius difference converges towards 8 mas (near 5.8 km). Now, with space era, we felt it was possible to obtain very accurate measurements of the solar equator-to-pole radius difference and its evolution over time. Thus, we developed an original method to estimate the solar equator-to-pole radius difference from two solar space missions (Solar Dynamics Observatory and PICARD). When analysing the solar radius versus angle data, we observed an anti-correlation between the limb brightness and the radius determined from the inflection point. The apparent radius was smaller if an active region was near the limb. The bright active regions were confined to low latitudes and never occur at the poles. The exact cause of this anti-correlation needs still to be understood but it is clear that it may cause an artefact in the determination of the solar oblateness leading to a negative bias, even if the more active regions were eliminated from the analysis. In this talk, we describe the method, and then present current results about solar oblateness variations after five years of solar observations (from 2010 to 2015) and linkages

  8. Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael

    Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites.

  9. Influence of Short-Term Solar UV Variability on the Determination of Solar Cycle Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.

    1997-01-01

    Smoothing solar UV data on rotational timescale (approx. 27 days) improves identification of solar minimum. Smoothing intervals which are not multiples of rotational period (e.g. 35 days) can leave measurable residual signal. No evidence found for periodic behavior on intermediate (50-250 days) time scales during Cycle 22, based on data from three solar UV instruments.

  10. The dynamo basis of solar cycle precursor schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charbonneau, Paul; Barlet, Guillaume

    2011-02-01

    We investigate the dynamo underpinning of solar cycle precursor schemes based on direct or indirect measures of the solar surface magnetic field. We do so for various types of mean-field-like kinematic axisymmetric dynamo models, where amplitude fluctuations are driven by zero-mean stochastic forcing of the dynamo number controlling the strength of the poloidal source term. In all stochastically forced models considered, the surface poloidal magnetic field is found to have precursor value only if it feeds back into the dynamo loop, which suggests that accurate determination of the magnetic flux budget of the solar polar fields may hold the key to dynamo model-based cycle forecasting.

  11. A solar cycle timing predictor - The latitude of active regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1990-01-01

    A 'Spoerer butterfly' method is used to examine solar cycle 22. It is shown from the latitude of active regions that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 + or - 8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.

  12. Solar Cycle: Magnetized March to Equator

    NASA Video Gallery

    Bands of magnetized solar material – with alternating south and north polarity – march toward the sun's equator. Comparing the evolution of the bands with the sunspot number in each hemisphere over...

  13. Coronal Holes During the Past Solar Cycle [Invited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.

    2003-06-01

    Analyses of UVCS/SOHO observations during different phases of Solar Cycle 23 have shown marked variations of ion properties in the acceleration region of the high-speed solar wind in large coronal holes. In 1996--1997 at solar minimum, UVCS observations revealed fast, hot flows coming from polar coronal holes. Around solar maximum, UVCS observations showed slower, cooler flows coming from coronal holes at the Sun's equator. In 2001 and 2002, UVCS observations evidenced the reappearance of the coronal holes at the north and south poles for the next solar cycle. We present empirical models for the physical properties of large coronal holes and the acceleration of the associated high-speed solar wind derived from ultraviolet coronagraphic spectroscopy. We discuss the role of solar cycle trends and the variation of ambient coronal-hole properties (e.g., magnetic field, geometry, density). We use these observations to test phenomenological models of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NAG5-11420 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  14. Variation of solar acoustic emission and its relation to phase of the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ruizhu; Zhao, Junwei

    2016-05-01

    Solar acoustic emission is closely related to solar convection and photospheric magnetic field. Variation of acoustic emission and its relation to the phase of solar cycles are important to understand dynamics of solar cycles and excitation of acoustic waves. In this work we use 6 years of SDO/HMI Dopplergram data to study acoustic emissions of the whole sun and of the quiet-sun regions, respectively, in multiple acoustic frequency bands. We show the variation of acoustic emission from May 2010 to April 2016, covering half of the solar cycle 24, and analyze its correlation with the solar activity level indexed by daily sunspot number and total magnetic flux. Results show that the correlation between the whole-Sun acoustic emission and the solar activity level is strongly negative for low frequencies between 2.5 and 4.5 mHz, but strongly positive for high frequencies between 4.5 and 6.0 mHz. For high frequencies, the acoustic emission excess in sunspot halos overwhelms the emission deficiency in sunspot umbrae and penumbrae. The correlation between the acoustic emission in quiet regions and the solar activity level is negative for 2.5-4.0 mHz and positive for 4.0-5.5 mHz. This shows that the solar background acoustic power, with active regions excluded, also varies during a solar cycle, implying the excitation frequencies or depths are highly related to the solar magnetic field.

  15. Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eter, Ahmad Adel

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

  16. Solar cycle variations in the interplanetary magnetic field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slavin, J. A.; Smith, E. J.

    1983-01-01

    ISEE 3 interplanetary magnetic field measurements have been used to extend the NSSDC hourly averaged IMF composite data set through mid-1982. Most of sunspot cycle 20 (start:1964) and the first half of cycle 21 (start:1976) are now covered. The average magnitude of the field was relatively constant over cycle 20 with approx. 5-10% decreases in 1969 and 1971, when the Sun's polar regions changed polarity, and a 20% decrease in 1975-6 around solar minimum. Since the start of the new cycle, the total field strength has risen with the mean for the first third of 1982 being about 40% greater than the cycle 20 average. As during the previous cycle, an approx. 10% drop in IMF magnitude accompanied the 1980 reversal of the solar magnetic field. While the interplanetary magnetic field is clearly stronger during the present solar cycle, another 5-7 years of observations will be needed to determine if cycle 21 exhibits the same modest variations as the last cycle. Accordingly, it appears at this time that intercycle changes in IMF magnitude may be much larger than the intracycle variations.

  17. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

    SciTech Connect

    Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V. E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk

    2014-11-01

    A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

  18. What Causes the Inter-solar-cycle Variation of Total Solar Irradiance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, N. B.; Kong, D. F.

    2015-12-01

    The Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos total solar irradiance (TSI), Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring TSI, and Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium TSI are three typical TSI composites. Magnetic Plage Strength Index (MPSI) and Mount Wilson Sunspot Index (MWSI) should indicate the weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively. Cross-correlation (CC) analysis of MWSI with three TSI composites shows that TSI should be weakly correlated with MWSI, and not be in phase with MWSI at timescales of solar cycles. The wavelet coherence (WTC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) of TSI with MWSI indicate that the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI is also not related to solar strong magnetic field activity, which is represented by MWSI. However, CC analysis of MPSI with three TSI composites indicates that TSI should be moderately correlated and accurately in phase with MPSI at timescales of solar cycles, and that the statistical significance test indicates that the correlation coefficient of three TSI composites with MPSI is statistically significantly higher than that of three TSI composites with MWSI. Furthermore, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) and WTC of TSI with MPSI show that the TSI is highly related and actually in phase with MPSI at a timescale of a solar cycle as well. Consequently, the CC analysis, XWT, and WTC indicate that the solar weak magnetic activity on the full disk, which is represented by MPSI, dominates the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI.

  19. Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar

    1992-01-01

    The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested.

  20. Magnetic Cloud Polarity and Geomagnetic Activities over Three Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Luhmann, J.

    2006-12-01

    Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that show fluxrope magnetic structures are named magnetic clouds (MCs). Majority of the MCs exhibit bipolar signature in their north-south component (Bz) in IMF measurements. The Bz component of a bipolar cloud is either NS (north first then turning south as the MC traverses the spacecraft) or SN. Studies show that the occurrence of these two types of MCs has some solar cycle dependence. However it appears to be a complex relationship as the switch between the two types of MCs is not concurrent with either the solar polar reversal or the time of the sunspot minimum when the new cycle sunspots start to appear. In this paper, we use ACE solar wind and IMF observations to obtain the most updated MC signatures and their temporal variation. In combination with our previously published results, we analyze MC polarity variations over the three solar cycles of 21, 22 and 23. Interpretations in terms of their solar sources will be attempted. On the other hand, the geomagnetic activities over the same solar cycles will be studied using geomagnetic indices. The geoeffectiveness of the MC will be evaluated in the aid of Dst indices.

  1. Energetic particle recurrence and escape during solar cycle 20

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gold, R. E.; Roelof, E. C.

    1980-10-01

    Low-energy solar particle data have been combined from a multi-spacecraft near-earth data set covering most of solar cycle 20 (1966-1976). Particle intensity profiles have been ordered in the natural heliographic coordinate system of the estimated high coronal connection longitude of the foot point of the interplanetary field line. The recurrence trends of approximately 1-MeV solar particles become more apparent in this coordinate system than when plotted versus time, and thereby extend the evidence for regions of continual injection and escape from the corona. Intercomparison of solar particles and solar wind streams in heliographic longitude suggests that the origin of stream-associated spatial particle events seen at 1 AU is solar rather than interplanetary.

  2. Solar cycle variation of thermospheric nitric oxide at solstice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gerard, J.-C.; Fesen, C. G.; Rusch, D. W.

    1990-01-01

    A coupled, two-dimensional, chemical-diffusive model of the thermosphere is used to study the role of solar activity in the global distribution of nitric oxide. The model calculates self-consistently the zonally averaged temperature, circulation, and composition for solstice under solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. A decrease of the NO density by a factor of three to four in the E region is predicted from solar maximum to solar minimum. It is found that the main features of the overall morphology and the changes induced by the solar cycle are well reproduced in the model, although some details are not satisfactorily predicted. The sensitivity of the NO distribution to eddy transport and to the quenching of metastable N(2D) atoms by atomic oxygen is also described.

  3. Evolution of solar wind turbulence and intermittency over the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Väisänen, Pauli; Virtanen, Ilpo; Echim, Marius; Munteanu, Costel; Mursula, Kalevi

    2016-04-01

    Solar wind is a natural, near-by plasma physics laboratory, which offers possibilities to study plasma physical phenomena over a wide range of parameter values that are difficult to reach in ground-based laboratories. Accordingly, the solar wind is subject of many studies of, e.g., intermittency, turbulence and other nonlinear space plasma phenomena. Turbulence is an important feature of the solar wind dynamics, e.g., for the energy transfer mechanisms and their scale invariance, the solar wind evolution, the structure of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), the particle energization and heating, and for phenomena related to solar wind interaction with the planetary plasma systems. Here we analyse high resolution measurements of the solar wind and the heliospheric magnetic field provided by several ESA and NASA satellites, including ACE, STEREO, Ulysses and Cluster. This collection of satellites allows us to compile and study nearly 20 years of high-resolution solar wind and HMF measurements from the start of solar cycle 23 to the current declining phase of solar cycle 24. Long-term studies require homogeneity and, therefore, we pay great attention to the reliability and consistency of the data, in particular to instrumental defects like spin harmonics, the purity of the solar wind and its possible contamination in the foreshock by magnetospheric ions. We study how the different key-descriptors of turbulence like the slope of the power law of power spectral density and the kurtosis of the fluctuations of the heliospheric magnetic field vary over the solar cycle.

  4. Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

  5. A Solar Cycle Dependence of Nonlinearity in Magnetospheric Activity

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Jay R; Wing, Simon

    2005-03-08

    The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical K(sub)p data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original K(sub)p data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maximum. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to one week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VB(sub)s and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.

  6. Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

    1991-01-01

    Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

  7. New results concerning the global solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makarov, V. I.; Sivaraman, K. R.

    1989-09-01

    The poleward migration-trajectory diagram of filament bands is derived for the years 1915-1982 from the H-alpha synoptic charts. The global solar activity commences soon after the polar-field reversal in the form of two components in each hemisphere. The first component is identified with the polar faculae that appear at latitudes 40-70 deg and migrate polewards. The second and the more powerful component representing the sunspots shows up at 40 deg latitudes 5-6 years later and drifts equatorward, giving rise to a butterfly diagram. Thus the global solar activity is described by the faculae and the sunspots that occur at different latitude belts and displaced in time by 5-6 years.

  8. Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shibasaki, K.

    2011-12-01

    The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

  9. Solar neutron decay proton observations in cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evenson, Paul; Kroeger, Richard; Meyer, Peter; Reames, Donald

    1990-01-01

    Measurement of the flux and energy spectrum of the protons resulting from the decay of solar flare neutrons gives unique information on the spectrum of neutrons from 5 to 200 MeV. Neutrons from three flares have been observed in this manner during solar cycle 21. The use of the decay protons to determine neutron energy spectra is reviewed, and new and definitive energy spectra are presented for the two large flares on June 3, 1982 and April 25, 1984.

  10. Investigating the Causes of Solar-Cycle Variations in Solar Energetic Particle Fluences and Composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mewaldt, Richard; Cohen, Christina; Mason, Glenn M.; von Rosenvinge, Tycho; Li, Gang; Smith, Charles; Vourlidas, Angelos

    2015-04-01

    Measurements with ACE, STEREO, and GOES show that the number of large Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in solar cycle 24 is reduced by a factor of ~2 compared to this point of cycle 23, while the fluences of >10 MeV/nuc ions from H to Fe are reduced by factors ranging from ~4 to ~10. We investigate the origin of these cycle-to-cycle differences by evaluating possible factors that include properties of the associated CMEs, seed particle densities, and the interplanetary magnetic field strength and turbulence levels. These properties will be evaluated in the context of existing SEP acceleration models.

  11. Variation of Meteor Heights and Solar-Cycle Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porubcan, Vladimír; Bucek, Marek; Cevolani, Giordano; Zigo, Pavel

    2012-08-01

    Photographic meteor observations of the Perseid meteoroid stream compiled from the IAU Meteor Data Center catalogue are analyzed from the viewpoint of possible long-term variation of meteor heights with the solar-cycle activity, which was previously reported from radio observations. The observed beginning and end-point heights of the Perseids, normalized for the geocentric velocity and the absolute photographic magnitude, do not show a variation consistent with the solar-cycle activity. This result is valid for the mass range of larger meteoroids observed by photographic techniques, and must be still verified also for the range of smaller meteoroids observed by TV and radio methods.

  12. SOLAR ROTATION RATE DURING THE CYCLE 24 MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY

    SciTech Connect

    Antia, H. M.; Basu, Sarbani E-mail: sarbani.basu@yale.ed

    2010-09-01

    The minimum of solar cycle 24 is significantly different from most other minima in terms of its duration as well as its abnormally low levels of activity. Using available helioseismic data that cover epochs from the minimum of cycle 23 to now, we study the differences in the nature of the solar rotation between the minima of cycles 23 and 24. We find that there are significant differences between the rotation rates during the two minima. There are differences in the zonal-flow pattern too. We find that the band of fast rotating region close to the equator bifurcated around 2005 and recombined by 2008. This behavior is different from that during the cycle 23 minimum. By autocorrelating the zonal-flow pattern with a time shift, we find that in terms of solar dynamics, solar cycle 23 lasted for a period of 11.7 years, consistent with the result of Howe et al. (2009). The autocorrelation coefficient also confirms that the zonal-flow pattern penetrates through the convection zone.

  13. A Statistical Test of Uniformity in Solar Cycle Indices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway David H.

    2012-01-01

    Several indices are used to characterize the solar activity cycle. Key among these are: the International Sunspot Number, the Group Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area, and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. A valuable aspect of these indices is the length of the record -- many decades and many (different) 11-year cycles. However, this valuable length-of-record attribute has an inherent problem in that it requires many different observers and observing systems. This can lead to non-uniformity in the datasets and subsequent erroneous conclusions about solar cycle behavior. The sunspot numbers are obtained by counting sunspot groups and individual sunspots on a daily basis. This suggests that the day-to-day and month-to-month variations in these numbers should follow Poisson Statistics and be proportional to the square-root of the sunspot numbers themselves. Examining the historical records of these indices indicates that this is indeed the case - even with Sunspot Area and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. The ratios of the RMS variations to the square-root of the indices themselves are relatively constant with little variation over the phase of each solar cycle or from small to large solar cycles. There are, however, important step-like changes in these ratios associated with changes in observer and/or observer system. Here we show how these variations can be used to construct more uniform datasets.

  14. THREE-DIMENSIONAL EVOLUTION OF SOLAR WIND DURING SOLAR CYCLES 22-24

    SciTech Connect

    Manoharan, P. K.

    2012-06-01

    This paper presents an analysis of three-dimensional evolution of solar wind density turbulence and speed at various levels of solar activity between solar cycles 22 and 24. The solar wind data used in this study have been obtained from the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements made at the Ooty Radio Telescope, operating at 327 MHz. Results show that (1) on average, there was a downward trend in density turbulence from the maximum of cycle 22 to the deep minimum phase of cycle 23; (2) the scattering diameter of the corona around the Sun shrunk steadily toward the Sun, starting from 2003 to the smallest size at the deepest minimum, and it corresponded to a reduction of {approx}50% in the density turbulence between the maximum and minimum phases of cycle 23; (3) the latitudinal distribution of the solar wind speed was significantly different between the minima of cycles 22 and 23. At the minimum phase of solar cycle 22, when the underlying solar magnetic field was simple and nearly dipole in nature, the high-speed streams were observed from the poles to {approx}30 Degree-Sign latitudes in both hemispheres. In contrast, in the long-decay phase of cycle 23, the sources of the high-speed wind at both poles, in accordance with the weak polar fields, occupied narrow latitude belts from poles to {approx}60 Degree-Sign latitudes. Moreover, in agreement with the large amplitude of the heliospheric current sheet, the low-speed wind prevailed in the low- and mid-latitude regions of the heliosphere. (4) At the transition phase between cycles 23 and 24, the high levels of density and density turbulence were observed close to the heliospheric equator and the low-speed solar wind extended from the equatorial-to-mid-latitude regions. The above results in comparison with Ulysses and other in situ measurements suggest that the source of the solar wind has changed globally, with the important implication that the supply of mass and energy from the Sun to the interplanetary

  15. Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

    2002-07-01

    In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

  16. The Measurement of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability during the Solar Cycle 24 using SOLAR/SOLSPEC on ISS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolsée, David; Pereira, Nuno; Pandey, Praveen; Cessateur, Gaël; Gillotay, Didier; Foujols, Thomas; Hauchecorne, Alain; Bekki, Slimane; Marchand, Marion; Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Bureau, Jerôme

    2016-04-01

    Since April 2008, SOLAR/SOLSPEC measures the Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from 166 nm to 3088 nm. The instrument is a part of the Solar Monitoring Observatory (SOLAR) payload, externally mounted on the Columbus module of the International Space Station. As the SSI is a key input for the validation of solar physics models, together with playing a role in the climate system and photochemistry of the Earth atmosphere, SOLAR/SOLSPEC spectral measurements becomes important. In this study, the in-flight operations and performances of the instrument -including the engineering corrections- will be presented for seven years of the SOLAR mission. Following an accurate absolute calibration, the SSI variability in the UV as measured by SOLAR/SOLSPEC in the course of the solar cycle 24 will be presented and compared to other instruments. The accuracy of these measurements will be also discussed here.

  17. Change of solar wind quasi-invariant in solar cycle 23—Analysis of PDFs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leitner, M.; Farrugia, C. J.; Vörös, Z.

    2011-02-01

    An in situ solar wind measurement which is a very good proxy for solar activity, correlating well with the sunspot number, is the solar wind “quasi-invariant” (QI), which is defined as the ratio between magnetic and kinetic energy densities. Here we use 1-min OMNI data to determine yearly probability density functions (PDFs) for QI. We distinguish between fast and slow solar winds, and exclude interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the data, since the latter have a different distribution. Fitting the PDFs by a log-kappa distribution, we discuss the variation of QI in the period 1995-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23 and the long, very quiet minimum in 2007-2009. The additional value of kappa allows us to obtain a better description for the tails of the distribution than the log-normal approach. Here we describe for the first time how parameter kappa changes over one solar cycle.

  18. New characteristics of the solar cycle and dynamo theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otkidychev, P. A.; Popova, E. P.

    2015-06-01

    Based on an analysis of the observational data for solar cycles 12-23 (Royal Greenwich Observatory-USAF/NOAA Sunspot Data), we have studied various parameters of the "Maunder butterflies." Based on the observational data for cycles 16-23, we have found that BT/ Land S depend linearly on each other, where B is the mean magnetic field of the cycle, T is the cycle duration, S is the cycle strength, and L is the mean sunspot latitude in the cycle (the arithmetic mean of the absolute values of the mean latitudes in the north and south). The connection of the observed quantities with the α- ω-dynamo theory is discussed.

  19. Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Drob, D. P.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the

  20. Coupled G-Mode Intersections and Solar-Cycle Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juckett, David A.

    2010-03-01

    Wolff ( Astrophys. J. 193, 721, 1974) introduced the concept of g-mode coupling within the solar interior. Subsequently, Wolff developed a more quantitative model invoking a reciprocal interaction between coupled g modes and burning in the solar core. Coupling is proposed to occur for constant values of the spherical harmonic degree [ ℓ] creating rigidly rotating structures denoted as sets( ℓ). Power would be concentrated near the core and the top of radiative zone [RZ] in narrow intervals of longitude on opposite sides of the Sun. Sets( ℓ) would migrate retrograde in the RZ as function of ℓ and their intersections would deposit extra energy at the top of the RZ. It is proposed that this enhances sunspot eruptions at particular longitudes and at regular time intervals. Juckett and Wolff ( Solar Phys. 252, 247, 2008) detected this enhancement by viewing selected spherical harmonics of sunspot patterns within stackplots twisted into the relative rotational frames of various sets( ℓ). In subsequent work, the timings of the set( ℓ) intersections were compared to the sub-decadal variability of the sunspot cycle. Seventeen sub-decadal intersection frequencies (0.63 - 7.0 year) were synchronous with 17 frequencies in the sunspot time-series with a mean correlation of 0.96. Six additional non-11-year frequencies (periods of 8.0 to 28.7 year) are now shown to be nearly synchronous between sunspot variability and the model. Two additional intersections have the same frequency as the solar cycle itself and peak during the rising phase of the solar cycle. This may be partly responsible for cycle asymmetry. These results are evidence that some of the solar-cycle variability may be attributable to deterministic components that are intermixed with a broad-spectrum stochastic and long-term chaotic background.

  1. Phase Relationships of Solar Hemispheric Toroidal and Poloidal Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muraközy, J.

    2016-08-01

    The solar northern and southern hemispheres exhibit differences in their intensities and time profiles of the activity cycles. The time variation of these properties was studied in a previous article covering the data from Cycles 12–23. The hemispheric phase lags exhibited a characteristic variation: the leading role was exchanged between hemispheres every four cycles. The present work extends the investigation of this variation using the data of Staudacher and Schwabe in Cycles 1–4 and 7–10 as well as Spörer’s data in Cycle 11. The previously observed variation cannot be clearly recognized using the data of Staudacher, Schwabe, and Spörer. However, it is more interesting that the phase lags of the reversals of the magnetic fields at the poles follow the same variations as those of the hemispheric cycles in Cycles 12–23, i.e., one of the hemispheres leads in four cyles and the leading role jumps to the opposite hemisphere in the next four cycles. This means that this variation is a long-term property of the entire solar dynamo mechanism, for both the toroidal and poloidal fields, which hints at an unidentified component of the process responsible for the long-term memory.

  2. BATSE flare observations in Solar Cycle 22

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwartz, R. A.; Dennis, B. R.; Fishman, G. J.; Meegan, C. A.; Wilson, R. B.; Paciesas, W. S.

    1992-01-01

    The Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) group at GSFC has developed and is maintaining a quick-look analysis system for solar flare hard x-ray data from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the recently launched Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (GRO). The instrument consists, in part, of 8 large planar detectors, each 2025 sq cm, placed on the corners of the GRO spacecraft with the orientation of the faces being those of a regular octahedron. Although optimized for the detection of gamma-ray bursts, these detectors are far more sensitive than any previous spacecraft-borne hard x-ray flare instrumentation both for the detection of small microflares and the resolution of fine temporal structures. The data in this BATSE solar data base are from the discriminator large area (DISCLA) rates. From each of eight detectors there are hard x-ray data in four energy channels, 25-50, 50-100, 100-300, and greater than 300 keV with a time resolution of 1.024 seconds. These data are suitable for temporal correlation with data at other wavelengths, and they provide a first look into the BATSE and other GRO instrument flare data sets. The BATSE and other GRO principle investigator groups should be contacted for the availability of data sets at higher time or spectral resolution or at higher energies.

  3. Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan; Herz, Richard; Genders, David; Symons, Peter; Brown, Lloyd

    2014-04-25

    A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle for reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are

  4. Are ionospheric storms the same during different solar cycles?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendillo, Michael; Narvaez, Clara; Marusiak, Angela G.

    2013-10-01

    ionosphere's response to geomagnetic storms has been studied since the earliest days of terrestrial space physics. In terms of temporal coverage, the largest data sets used extensively have been from the global network of ionosondes. Many previous investigations examined the behavior of the F layer's maximum electron density (Nmax)—often contrasting the difference seen between storms that occur during solar maximum years versus those during solar minimum years. We report on the first attempt to study systematically the patterns of ionospheric disturbance seen during different solar cycles. We select two midlatitude sites with long-term consistency in data: Wallops Island (Virginia) and Hobart (Tasmania)—stations with comparable geographic and geomagnetic coordinates—but in different hemispheres and widely separated longitude sectors. We compare average ionospheric storm patterns using over 200 moderate to severe geomagnetic storms within each of solar cycle #20 (October 1964 to June 1976) and cycle #23 (May 1996 to December 2008). We compute average patterns of ΔNmax(%), measured with respect to monthly mean conditions, following storm and local time. The overall results show remarkable consistency in characteristic patterns of an ionospheric storm: a short positive phase that occurs during the daytime hours on the first day of a storm, with a prolonged negative phase on subsequent days. Statistical differences occur in the overall magnitudes and longevities of these patterns, consistently showing that cycle #23 had less severe ionospheric storms. An analysis of geomagnetic indices shows that degrees of disturbance were, in fact, lower during solar cycle #23 than cycle #20.

  5. Solar Cycle Variations of O VI and H I Lyman Alpha Intensities in the Solar Corona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.; Panasyuk, A. V.; Strachan, L.; Gardner, L. D.; Suleiman, R. M.; Smith, P. L.; Kohl, J. L.

    2000-05-01

    UVCS/SOHO measurements of O VI (103.2 and 103.7 nm) and H I Lyman alpha intensities in the solar corona have been made from 1996 to the present spanning the rising phase of cycle 23. During solar minimum the corona consisted of large coronal holes at the poles and quiescent streamers at the equator. During the ascending phase of the cycle, the corona presented high latitude streamers and finally polar streamers as the Sun approached solar maximum. Recent observations of the solar corona show the presence of coronal holes at the equator and streamers at the poles. Our observations provide descriptions of these structures over the rising phase of the solar cycle. We compare the properties of quiescent equatorial streamers which occurred at solar minimum to high latitude and polar streamers observed toward solar maximum. We also compare solar minimum polar coronal holes to equatorial coronal holes present at solar maximum. We discuss how these results are related to the plasma properties. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NAG5-7822 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  6. Element Abundances in the Sun and Solar Wind Along the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landi, Enrico

    2015-04-01

    Element abundances are a critical parameter in almost every aspect of solar physics, from regulating the energy flow and the structure of the solar interior, to shaping the energy losses of the solar atmosphere, ruling the radiative output of the UV, EUV and X-rays solar radiation which impacts the Earth's upper atmosphere, and determining the composition of the solar wind.In this work we study the evolution of the element abundances in the solar corona and in the solar wind from 1996 to date using data from SoHO, Hinode, Ulysses and ACE satellites, in order to determine their variability along the solar cycle, and the relationship between solar abundance variations in the solar wind and in its source regions in the solar atmosphere. We study all the most abundant elements, with a special emphasis on Ne and O. We discuss our results in light of the source region of the solar wind, and of the radiative output of the solar corona.

  7. Oscillator models of the solar cycle and the Waldmeier effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, M.; Petrovay, K.

    2013-11-01

    We study the behaviour of the van der Pol oscillator when either its damping parameter μ or its nonlinearity parameter ξ is subject to additive or multiplicative random noise. Assuming various power law exponents for the relation between the oscillating variable and the sunspot number, for each case we map the parameter plane defined by the amplitude and the correlation time of the perturbation and mark the parameter regime where the sunspot number displays solar-like behaviour. Solar-like behaviour is defined here as a good correlation between the rise rate and cycle amplitude and the lack of a good correlation between the decay rate and amplitude, together with significant ({⪆ 10} %) r.m.s. variation in cycle lengths and cycle amplitudes. It is found that perturbing μ alone the perturbed van der Pol oscillator does not show solar-like behaviour. When the perturbed variable is ξ, solar-like behaviour is displayed for perturbations with a correlation time of about 3-4 years and significant amplitude. Such studies may provide useful constraints on solar dynamo models and their parameters.

  8. Mir Cooperative Solar Array Project Accelerated Life Thermal Cycling Test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, David J.; Scheiman, David A.

    1996-01-01

    The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) project was a joint U.S./Russian effort to build a photovoltaic (PV) solar array and deliver it to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA will be used to increase the electrical power on Mir and provide PV array performance data in support of Phase 1 of the International Space Station. The MCSA was brought to Mir by space shuttle Atlantis in November 1995. This report describes an accelerated thermal life cycle test which was performed on two samples of the MCSA. In eight months time, two MCSA solar array 'mini' panel test articles were simultaneously put through 24,000 thermal cycles. There was no significant degradation in the structural integrity of the test articles and no electrical degradation, not including one cell damaged early and removed from consideration. The nature of the performance degradation caused by this one cell is briefly discussed. As a result of this test, changes were made to improve some aspects of the solar cell coupon-to-support frame interface on the flight unit. It was concluded from the results that the integration of the U.S. solar cell modules with the Russian support structure would be able to withstand at least 24,000 thermal cycles (4 years on-orbit). This was considered a successful development test.

  9. A Different View of Solar Cycle Spectral Variations: Total Energy during Isolated Solar Outburst Periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woods, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) varies on all time scales, and these variations are highly dependent on wavelength. The daily and 27-day solar rotation variations are best understood from many different satellite observations over the past five decades. There has also been much progress in understanding the longer term 11-year solar activity cycle variations. However, instrument degradation corrections are not as accurate as sometimes needed for long-term studies, thus there can be challenges in understanding the solar cycle variations at some wavelengths. In particular, the Harder et al. (GRL, 36, L07801, 2009) results for the near ultraviolet (NUV), visible, and near infrared (NIR) have indicated more NUV variation and some out-of-phase variation for some visible and NIR wavelengths. These variations have been challenged as they are inconsistent with some prior measurements and with some SSI models. A different approach to study the solar cycle variations, but without the need for long-term instrument degradation corrections, is to examine the total energy during isolated solar outburst periods. A solar active region typically appears suddenly and then takes about seven months to decay and disperse back into the quiet Sun network. The isolated outburst period refers to when only one major active region dominates the irradiance variation. The solar outburst energy, which includes all phases of active region evolution, could be considered to be the primary cause for solar cycle variations. Using TIMED, SDO, and SORCE extreme ultraviolet and far ultraviolet observations, the outburst energy (7 months) spectral variation is found to be very similar to their multi-year (solar cycle) variation. The same approach is applied for studying the NUV-Visible-NIR variations from SORCE, and these new results provide a different, and perhaps more accurate, indicator of SSI variation.

  10. EFFECTS OF INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increases in solar UV radiation could affect terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemical cycles thus altering both sources and sinks of greenhouse and chemically important trace gases (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), carbonyl sulfide (COS)). n terrestrial ecosystems,...

  11. Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

    PubMed Central

    Zurbenko, Igor

    2014-01-01

    Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

  12. Magnetic cycles in global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of solar convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charbonneau, P.

    2011-12-01

    In this talk I will review some recent advances in our understanding of the solar magnetic cycle through global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of thermally-driven convection in a thick, stratified spherical shell of electrically conducting fluid. I will focus on three related issues: (1) the nature of the turbulent dynamo mechanism; (2) the nature of the mechanism(s) controlling the cycle amplitude; and (3) epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitudes, and the existence of possible precursor to such events to be found in the patterns of magnetically-driven torsional oscillations and meridional flow variations arising in the simulations.

  13. Thermal stress cycling of GaAs solar cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francis, Robert W.

    1987-01-01

    Thermal stress cycling was performed on gallium arsenide solar cells to investigate their electrical, mechanical, and structural integrity. Cells were cycled under low Earth orbit (LEO) simulated temperature conditions in vacuum. Cell evaluations consisted of power output values, spectral response, optical microscopy and ion microprobe mass analysis, and depth profiles on both front surface inter-grid areas and metallization contact grid lines. Cells were examined for degradation after 500, 5,000, 10,000 and 15,245 thermal cycles. No indication of performance degradation was found for any vendor's cell lot.

  14. Results of accelerated thermal cycle tests of solar cells modules

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berman, P.; Mueller, R.; Salama, M.; Yasui, R.

    1976-01-01

    Various candidate solar panel designs were evaluated, both theoretically and experimentally, with respect to their thermal cycling survival capability, and in particular with respect to an accelerated simulation of thermal cycles representative of Viking '75 mission requirements. The experimental results were obtained on 'mini-panels' thermally cycled in a newly installed automated test facility herein described. The resulting damage was analyzed physically and theoretically, and on the basis of these analyses the panel design was suitably modified to significantly improve its ability to withstand the thermal environment. These successful modifications demonstrate the value of the complementary theoretical-experimental approach adopted, and discussed in detail in this paper.

  15. High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ball, W. T.; Haigh, J. D.; Rozanov, E. V.; Kuchar, A.; Sukhodolov, T.; Tummon, F.; Shapiro, A. V.; Schmutz, W.

    2016-03-01

    Solar variability can influence surface climate, for example by affecting the mid-to-high-latitude surface pressure gradient associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. One key mechanism behind such an influence is the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by ozone in the tropical stratosphere, a process that modifies temperature and wind patterns and hence wave propagation and atmospheric circulation. The amplitude of UV variability is uncertain, yet it directly affects the magnitude of the climate response: observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite show broadband changes up to three times larger than previous measurements. Here we present estimates of the stratospheric ozone variability during the solar cycle. Specifically, we estimate the photolytic response of stratospheric ozone to changes in spectral solar irradiance by calculating the difference between a reference chemistry-climate model simulation of ozone variability driven only by transport (with no changes in solar irradiance) and observations of ozone concentrations. Subtracting the reference from simulations with time-varying irradiance, we can evaluate different data sets of measured and modelled spectral irradiance. We find that at altitudes above pressure levels of 5 hPa, the ozone response to solar variability simulated using the SORCE spectral solar irradiance data are inconsistent with the observations.

  16. Variations in the Sun's Meridional Flow Over a Solar Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Rightmire, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    The Sun's meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that is generally directed from its equator toward its poles at the surface. The structure and strength of the meridional flow determine both the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic field and the intensity of sunspot cycles. We determine the meridional flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The average flow is poleward at all latitudes up to 75 , which suggests that it extends to the poles. It was faster at sun spot cycle minimum than at maximum and substantially faster on the approach to the current minimum than it was at the last solar minimum. This result may help to ex plain why this solar activity minimum is so peculiar.

  17. OH Column Abundance Apparent Response to Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burnett, C. R.; Minschwaner, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    The 33-year series of high spectral resolution measurements of absorption of sunlight by OH at 308 nm has exhibited temporary decreases of column abundances in 1986, 1997, and 2008 near the times of minimum solar activity. These observations and analyses are of significance as they encompass three complete solar cycles for comparison. During solar cycle 23, the annual average abundances increased approximately 20% from the minimum abundance in 1997 to high-sun enhanced values in 2000-2006, then dropped approximately 15% in 2008. The abundances exhibited a pronounced reduction at solar minimum in August-October 2008, similar to that seen in fall 1986 and fall 1997. The average morning abundances on those occasions were 13% smaller than the 1980-88 corresponding average, about 0.9 x 1013 cm-2, with minimum values broadly consistent with model results. In contrast, high-sun OH abundances observed during periods of solar maximum are approximately 33% larger than modeled abundances. This discrepancy cannot be explained by reasonable adjustments of reaction rates or modeled constituent concentrations in the stratosphere or mesosphere. However, the observed responses to a tropopause fold event in 1988 and to the Pinatubo aerosol in 1991 do suggest an important contribution to the total OH column from the lower stratosphere. In addition to the apparent variations with solar activity, this OH column database contains a number of other effects such as diurnal and seasonal patterns, and geographic differences between observations from Colorado, Florida, Alaska, Micronesia, New Zealand, and New Mexico.

  18. Cycle Length Dependence of Stellar Magnetic Activity and Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hwajin; Lee, Jeongwoo; Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong; Kim, Hoonkyu; Yi, Yu

    2015-03-01

    Solar cycle (SC) 23 was extraordinarily long with remarkably low magnetic activity. We have investigated whether this is a common behavior of solar-type stars. From the Ca ii H and K line intensities of 111 stars observed at Mount Wilson Observatory from 1966 to 1991, we have retrieved data of all 23 G-type stars and recalculated their cycle lengths using the damped least-squares method for the chromospheric activity index S as a function of time. A regression analysis was performed to find relations between the derived cycle length, Pavg, and the index for excess chromospheric emission, RHK\\prime . As a noteworthy result, we found a segregation between young and old solar-type stars in the cycle length-activity correlation. We incorporated the relation for the solar-type stars into the previously known rule for stellar chromospheric activity and brightness to estimate the variation of solar brightness from SC 22 to SC 23 as (0.12 ± 0.06)%, much higher than the actual variation of total solar irradiance (TSI) ≤0.02%. We have then examined solar spectral irradiance (SSI) to find a good phase correlation with a sunspot number in the wavelength range of 170-260 nm, which is close to the spectral range effective in heating the Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, it appears that SSI rather than TSI is a good indicator of the chromospheric activity, and its cycle length dependent variation would be more relevant to the possible role of the Sun in the cyclic variation of the Earth’s atmosphere.

  19. Solar powered Stirling cycle electrical generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaltens, Richard K.

    1991-03-01

    Under NASA's Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI), the NASA Lewis Research Center is developing the technology needed for free-piston Stirling engines as a candidate power source for space systems in the late 1990's and into the next century. Space power requirements include high efficiency, very long life, high reliability, and low vibration. Furthermore, system weight and operating temperature are important. The free-piston Stirling engine has the potential for a highly reliable engine with long life because it has only a few moving parts, non-contacting gas bearings, and can be hermetically sealed. These attributes of the free-piston Stirling engine also make it a viable candidate for terrestrial applications. In cooperation with the Department of Energy, system designs are currently being completed that feature the free-piston Stirling engine for terrestrial applications. Industry teams were assembled and are currently completing designs for two Advanced Stirling Conversion Systems utilizing technology being developed under the NASA CSTI Program. These systems, when coupled with a parabolic mirror to collect the solar energy, are capable of producing about 25 kW of electricity to a utility grid. Industry has identified a niche market for dish Stirling systems for worldwide remote power application. They believe that these niche markets may play a major role in the introduction of Stirling products into the commercial market.

  20. Solar powered Stirling cycle electrical generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaltens, Richard K.

    1991-01-01

    Under NASA's Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI), the NASA Lewis Research Center is developing the technology needed for free-piston Stirling engines as a candidate power source for space systems in the late 1990's and into the next century. Space power requirements include high efficiency, very long life, high reliability, and low vibration. Furthermore, system weight and operating temperature are important. The free-piston Stirling engine has the potential for a highly reliable engine with long life because it has only a few moving parts, non-contacting gas bearings, and can be hermetically sealed. These attributes of the free-piston Stirling engine also make it a viable candidate for terrestrial applications. In cooperation with the Department of Energy, system designs are currently being completed that feature the free-piston Stirling engine for terrestrial applications. Industry teams were assembled and are currently completing designs for two Advanced Stirling Conversion Systems utilizing technology being developed under the NASA CSTI Program. These systems, when coupled with a parabolic mirror to collect the solar energy, are capable of producing about 25 kW of electricity to a utility grid. Industry has identified a niche market for dish Stirling systems for worldwide remote power application. They believe that these niche markets may play a major role in the introduction of Stirling products into the commercial market.

  1. Variations of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic parameters with solar magnetic multipole fields during Solar Cycles 21-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Bogyeong; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yi, Yu; Oh, Suyeon

    2015-01-01

    In this study we compare the temporal variations of the solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic (SIG) parameters with that of open solar magnetic flux from 1976 to 2012 (from Solar Cycle 21 to the early phase of Cycle 24) for a purpose of identifying their possible relationships. By the open flux, we mean the average magnetic field over the source surface (2.5 solar radii) times the source area as defined by the potential field source surface (PFSS) model of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). In our result, most SIG parameters except the solar wind dynamic pressure show rather poor correlations with the open solar magnetic field. Good correlations are recovered when the contributions from individual multipole components are counted separately. As expected, solar activity indices such as sunspot number, total solar irradiance, 10.7 cm radio flux, and solar flare occurrence are highly correlated with the flux of magnetic quadrupole component. The dynamic pressure of solar wind is strongly correlated with the dipole flux, which is in anti-phase with Solar Cycle (SC). The geomagnetic activity represented by the Ap index is correlated with higher order multipole components, which show relatively a slow time variation with SC. We also found that the unusually low geomagnetic activity during SC 23 is accompanied by the weak open solar fields compared with those in other SCs. It is argued that such dependences of the SIG parameters on the individual multipole components of the open solar magnetic flux may clarify why some SIG parameters vary in phase with SC and others show seemingly delayed responses to SC variation.

  2. Solar flare particle fluences during solar cycles 19, 20 and 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcguire, R. E.; Goswami, J. N.; Jha, R.; Lal, D.; Reedy, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Satellite data for solar flare particle events during solar cycle 21 (up to July 1982) have been analyzed to obtain event-integrated fluxes of energetic protons and alpha particles. Thirty nine events with proton fluences (E greater than 10 MeV) greater than 10-million/sq cm occurred during 1976-1982. The average flux of protons with kinetic energy greater than 10 MeV is 65 per sq cm/s for this period. The event averaged alpha to proton ratio, in the energy interval 1-22 MeV/n, varies between 0.006 to 0.04, with an average value of about 0.02 for the whole cycle. The flux of protons (with energies greater than 10 MeV) averaged over cycle 21 is lower than those for solar-cycle 20 per sq cm/s based on satellite data, and for solar-cycle 19 378 per sq cm/s based on lunar sample data. There is no definitive correlation between solar-cycle averaged proton fluxes and sunspot numbers.

  3. Solar Sources of 3He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events in Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Nariaki V.; Mason, Glenn M.; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina; Wiedenbeck, Mark E.

    2015-04-01

    We still do not understand the origin of impulsive SEP events enriched in 3He and heavy ions. A major impediment may be the difficulty to observe them in the corona, apart from the common knowledge that 3He-rich SEP events are correlated with longer-than-metric type III radio bursts and <100 keV electron events. This is because their X-ray and EUV signatures tend to be tiny and short-lived. Using high-cadence and high-sensitivity EUV images obtained by SDO/AIA, we investigate the solar sources of 26 3He-rich SEP events during solar cycle 24 that were well-observed by ACE. The source locations are further confirmed in data from STEREO/EUVI, which capture solar activities in the regions inaccessible from the Earth. We confirm that 3He-rich events have a broad longitudinal distribution (including locations well behind the west limb) and that a frequent association with coronal jets and narrow CMEs. Some events were seen in association with eruptions of closed structures and large-scale coronal propagating fronts (LCPFs, aka EUV waves). While these LCPFs may account for the occasional mismatching polarities at the source region and L1 in such a way that the particles are transported to and released at a region that has the opposite polarity, their associated CMEs may not be fast enough to drive shock waves for particle acceleration. Moreover, open field lines from PFSS models may not be correct for the entire Sun although they often look reasonable in discrete locations. We also discuss the apparent lack of correlation between the solar sources and the basic properties of 3He-rich SEP events.

  4. Analytical Study of Geomagnetic and Solar Activities During Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hady, A. A.

    The data of amplitude and phase of most common indicators of geomagnetic activities (especially aa index, A? index) have been analyzed and compared with the solar ac- tivities in the time of solar cycle 23(started from 1996 to 2007). The data taken from NOAA space environment center (SES), USA. during the period starting April 1996 Until Dec. 2001, have been analyzed by power spectrum method. The prediction until year 2007 of geomagnetic activities were studied according to the whole of behavior of solar cycle 23. The results show a good indication of the effects of solar activities on changes of earth climate and weather forecasting. The results are important to various techniques including the operation of low earth orbiting satellites. The climatologi- cal approach makes use of the secular trend since year 1900 until now, by about 15 nanotesla. This indication was recorded too, in solar activity changes during the last century.

  5. Solar/gas Brayton/Rankine cycle heat pump assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, J.; Liu, A. Y.

    1982-05-01

    A 10-ton gas-fired heat pump is currently under development at AiResearch under joint DOE and GRI sponsorship. This heat pump features a highly efficient, recuperated, subatmospheric Brayton-cycle engine which drives the centrifugal compressor of a reversible vapor compression heat pump. The investigations under this program were concerned initially with the integration of this machine with a parabolic dish-type solar collector. Computer models were developed to accurately describe the performance of the heat pump packaged in this fashion. The study determined that (1) only a small portion (20 to 50 percent) of the available solar energy could be used because of a fundamental mismatch between the heating and cooling demand and the availability of solar energy, and (2) the simple pay back period, by comparison to the baseline non-solar gas-fired heat pump, was unacceptable (15 to 36 years).

  6. Helium 10830 Å airglow emission response to solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patel, P. P.; Azeem, S. M.; Sivjee, G. G.

    2007-05-01

    It has been suggested by Gadsden [1967] that the radiance of Helium 10830 Å line can be used to monitor the solar irradiance in the EUV. Conversely, we can use the 10830 Å line to study the response of the upper atmosphere over the course of a solar cycle. In this paper we will examine Helium emission line at 10830 Å to study the correlation between brightness of the emission line with F10.7 solar flux. The Helium data was acquired from Michelson Interferometers located at two stations, South Pole Station (90° S), Antarctica and Resolute Bay (74.68° N, 94.90° W), Canada. The data will be examined to isolate periods with no auroral contamination. Long term HeI data, from 1992 to 2005, will be presented to study correlation between Helium brightness and the F10.7 solar flux.

  7. On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

  8. The solar dynamo and prediction of sunspot cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2012-07-01

    Much progress has been made in understanding the solar dynamo since Parker first developed the concepts of dynamo waves and magnetic buoyancy around 1955, and the German school first formulated the solar dynamo using the mean-field formalism. The essential ingredients of these mean-field dynamos are turbulent magnetic diffusivity, a source of lifting of flux, or 'alpha-effect', and differential rotation. With the advent of helioseismic and other observations at the Sun's photosphere and interior, as well as theoretical understanding of solar interior dynamics, solar dynamo models have evolved both in the realm of mean-field and beyond mean-field models. After briefly discussing the status of these models, I will focus on a class of mean-field model, called flux-transport dynamos, which include meridional circulation as an essential additional ingredient. Flux-transport dynamos have been successful in simulating many global solar cycle features, and have reached the stage that they can be used for making solar cycle predictions. Meridional circulation works in these models like a conveyor-belt, carrying a memory of the magnetic fields from 5 to 20 years back in past. The lower is the magnetic diffusivity, the longer is the model's memory. In the terrestrial system, the great-ocean conveyor-belt in oceanic models and Hadley, polar and Ferrel circulation cells in the troposphere, carry signatures from the past climatological events and influence the determination of future events. Analogously, the memory provided by the Sun's meridional circulation creates the potential for flux-transport dynamos to predict future solar cycle properties. Various groups in the world have built flux-transport dynamo-based predictive tools, which nudge the Sun's surface magnetic data and integrated forward in time to forecast the amplitude of the currently ascending cycle 24. Due to different initial conditions and different choices of unknown model-ingredients, predictions can vary; so

  9. Solar Wind and Magnetic Storms in 24-th Cycle of Solar Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Val'chuk, T. E.

    2013-01-01

    Slow growth of 24-th solar cycle allows adding of this cycle to the type of low cycles. Geomagnetic activity is not expensive too - strong geomagnetic storms were absent in the beginning of growth branch of this cycle. Very prolonged minimum was lasting about 4 years. We may remember that century minimum of solar activity was proposed after XX century high strong cycles. It may be - we look this situation now in 2012. Our work is connected with sporadic phenomena in 24-th cycle. These more or less intensive variations of solar activity are not predicted, they are caused by flowing up of new magnetic fields of spots, the excitement of flares, intensive plasma flows, coronal mass ejections (CME) and filament eruptions. Now two last versions (CME and filaments) are primary. Geomagnetic activity on a descending phase of solar cycle depends on quality of coronal holes providing the recurrent geomagnetic storms. Sporadic phenomena, which generated geomagnetic storms in Earth magnetosphere if flare flows reached the Earth magnetosphere and transferred it the energy are more interesting for us - they are the valuable characteristics of 24-th cycle. The disturbed period of several geomagnetic storms was generated by solar active region N11429. It is one sample only, this case is difficult and indicative. Replacing each other scenarios describe geomagnetic variations at the beginning of March 2012. Detailed consideration of this interval revealed its communication with sporadic events on the Sun. The structural configuration of plasma in flare flows was defined by means fractal dimension calculations of solar plasma parameters: velocity Vx and density N in flare streams.

  10. Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cable, Samual B.; Sutton, Eric K.; Lin, chin S.; Liou, J.-C.

    2011-01-01

    Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

  11. Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nuss, H. E.

    1980-01-01

    For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method.

  12. Nonlinear data assimilation: towards a prediction of the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svedin, Andreas

    The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. Our interest is model-based prediction, and we present a self-consistent procedure for parameter estimation and model state estimation, even when only one of several model variables can be observed. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. We use the 3DVAR methodology, based on the notion of least squares, to present an implementation of a traditional data assimilation. Using the Shadowing Filter — a recently developed method for nonlinear data assimilation — we outline a path towards model based prediction of the solar cycle. To achieve this end we solve a number of methodological challenges related to unobserved variables. We also provide a new framework for interpretation that can guide future predictions of the Sun and other astrophysical objects.

  13. Different Sun-Earth energy coupling between different solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamauchi, Masatoshi

    2015-04-01

    Geoeffect of the extremely low solar (sunspot) activity starting from the last solar minimum is one of major space science issues. This study compared responses of global geomagnetic indices Dst, Kp, and AL to the same solar wind conditions (density, velocity, magnetic field and their products) between the recent decade (2005-2014) and each of the previous four decades (1965-1974, 1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2004) using the NASA OMNI hourly values up to August 2014. It is found that geomagnetic activity for a given solar wind condition, namely the Sun-Earth coupling efficiency, during the last 10 years (from after the declining phase of cycle #23 to the maximum of cycle #24) is quantitatively lower than those during the previous four decades (each decade approximately corresponds to cycles #20--23, respectively). The low Sun-Earth coupling efficiency became obvious from around 2006 and continued until now with a sharp peak at 2009. The speciality after 2006 is more obvious in Dst than in AL. Acknowledgement: Dst, Kp, AL, and sunspot numbers (RI) are official IAGA and IAA endorsed indices that are provided by World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto University, Japan (Dst and AL), GFZ, Adolf-Schmidt-Observatory Niemegk, Germany (Kp), and the Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels (RI). Including these indices, all data in hourly values are obtained from NASA-GSFC/SPDF through OMNIWeb (http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/ow.html).

  14. Central antarctic climate response to the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volobuev, D. M.

    2014-05-01

    Antarctic "Vostok" station works most closely to the center of the ice cap among permanent year-around stations. Climate conditions are exclusively stable: low precipitation level, cloudiness and wind velocity. These conditions can be considered as an ideal model laboratory to study the surface temperature response on solar irradiance variability during 11-year cycle of solar activity. Here we solve an inverse heat conductivity problem: calculate the boundary heat flux density (HFD) from known evolution of temperature. Using meteorological temperature record during (1958-2011) we calculated the HFD variation about 0.2-0.3 W/m2 in phase with solar activity cycle. This HFD variation is derived from 0.5 to 1 °C temperature variation and shows relatively high climate sensitivity per 0.1 % of solar radiation change. This effect can be due to the polar amplification phenomenon, which predicts a similar response 0.3-0.8 °C/0.1 % (Gal-Chen and Schneider in Tellus 28:108-121, 1975). The solar forcing (TSI) is disturbed by volcanic forcing (VF), so that their linear combination TSI + 0.5VF empirically provides higher correlation with HFD (r = 0.63 ± 0.22) than TSI (r = 0.50 ± 0.24) and VF (r = 0.41 ± 0.25) separately. TSI shows higher wavelet coherence and phase agreement with HFD than VF.

  15. Thermal Cycling of Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) Test Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, David J.; Scheiman, David A.

    1997-01-01

    The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) project was a joint US/Russian effort to build a photovoltaic (PV) solar array and deliver it to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA is currently being used to increase the electrical power on Mir and provide PV array performance data in support of Phase 1 of the International Space Station (ISS), which will use arrays based on the same solar cells used in the MCSA. The US supplied the photovoltaic power modules (PPMs) and provided technical and programmatic oversight while Russia provided the array support structures and deployment mechanism and built and tested the array. In order to ensure that there would be no problems with the interface between US and Russian hardware, an accelerated thermal life cycle test was performed at NASA Lewis Research Center on two representative samples of the MCSA. Over an eight-month period (August 1994 - March 1995), two 15-cell MCSA solar array 'mini' panel test articles were simultaneously put through 24,000 thermal cycles (+80 C to -100 C), equivalent to four years on-orbit. The test objectives, facility, procedure and results are described in this paper. Post-test inspection and evaluation revealed no significant degradation in the structural integrity of the test articles and no electrical degradation, not including one cell damaged early as an artifact of the test and removed from consideration. The interesting nature of the performance degradation caused by this one cell, which only occurred at elevated temperatures, is discussed. As a result of this test, changes were made to improve some aspects of the solar cell coupon-to-support frame interface on the flight unit. It was concluded from the results that the integration of the US solar cell modules with the Russian support structure would be able to withstand at least 24,000 thermal cycles (4 years on-orbit).

  16. Study on solar energetic particles in the rising half of solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miteva, Rositsa; Samwel, Susan

    We present a list of 45 solar energetic particle (SEP) events in solar cycle 24 (2007-2013) following the preliminary listing by NOAA GOES and SEPServer SOHO/ERNE. We identified the onset time and peak intensity for the protons from Wind/EPACT and electrons from ACE/EPAM data. We propose flare/coronal mass ejection (CME) identification for each SEP event. We note a slightly higher percentage of eastern events (36 percent) in the first half of the present solar cycle compared to the entire previous one (27 percent). We completed a correlation study between the particle intensities and the flare GOES class and CME projected speed from SOHO/LASCO-C2 catalog. We found a lower correlation between the eastern SEPs peak intensities and the flare class, compared to the CME speed, although the difference is not statistically significant. Finally, we comment on the differences between SEP events and parent solar activity in the solar cycle 23 and rising part of solar cycle 24.

  17. Solar cycle variations in the powers and damping rates of low-degree solar acoustic oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broomhall, A.-M.; Pugh, C. E.; Nakariakov, V. M.

    2015-12-01

    Helioseismology uses the Sun's natural resonant oscillations to study the solar interior. The properties of the solar oscillations are sensitive to the Sun'2019;s magnetic activity cycle. Here we examine variations in the powers, damping rates, and energy supply rates of the most prominent acoustic oscillations in unresolved, Sun-as-a-star data, obtained by the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network (BiSON) during solar cycles 22, 23, and the first half of 24. The variations in the helioseismic parameters are compared to the 10.7 cm flux, a well-known global proxy of solar activity. As expected the oscillations are most heavily damped and the mode powers are at a minimum at solar activity maximum. The 10.7 cm flux was linearly regressed using the fractional variations of damping rates and powers observed during cycle 23. In general, good agreement is found between the damping rates and the 10.7 cm flux. However, the linearly regressed 10.7 cm flux and fractional variation in powers diverge in cycles 22 and 24, indicating that the relationship between the mode powers and the 10.7 cm flux is not consistent from one cycle to the next. The energy supply rate of the oscillations, which is usually approximately constant, also decreases at this time. We have determined that this discrepancy is not because of the first-order bias introduced by an increase in the level of background noise or gaps in the data. Although we cannot categorically rule out an instrumental origin, the divergence observed in cycle 24, when the data were of high quality and the data coverage was over 80%, raises the possibility that the effect may be solar in origin.

  18. Solar Cycle comparison of Nitric Oxide in the lower thermosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carstens, P. L.; Bailey, S. M.; Thurairajah, B.; Yonker, J. D.; Venkataramani, K.; Russell, J. M.; Hervig, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) is a key minor constituent in the lower thermosphere. Of particular importance is its role in the energy balance in that altitude region. NO is produced through the reaction of excited atomic nitrogen with molecular oxygen. Thus, its production is very sensitive to those energy sources able to break the strong molecular nitrogen bond. These include solar soft X-rays and precipitating energetic particles. NO emits efficiently in the infrared and is an important cooling mechanism in the lower thermosphere. The abundance of NO is thus both a direct response to recent energy deposition as well as a key mechanism by which the upper atmosphere releases that energy. The concentration of NO should show a close relation to solar energy input. In this poster, we analyze the NO observations from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument. The SOFIE instrument was launched on-board the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite on April 25, 2007. It is currently in its sixth year of operation. SOFIE is a 16 channel differential absorption radiometer using the solar occultation technique to measure ice and environmental properties at a range of altitudes, and in particular the mesopause region. One of the constituents measured by SOFIE is NO in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere to about 130 km. The AIM orbit and the solar occultation technique confine observations to latitudes of 65 to 85 degrees in each hemisphere and varying with season. Here, we present the SOFIE observations and discuss its relationship with current levels of solar X-ray irradiance. We will further estimate the change in NO concentration (mixing ratios and densities) for the previous and current solar minimum. The statistics for this change will be presented for northern, equatorial and southern latitudes. We take the period of Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 to represent the current solar minimum between the solar cycles 23 and 24 and the period of Jan - Dec 1996 to

  19. Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

    2016-03-01

    Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are

  20. The Venus atmospheric response to solar cycle variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keating, Gerald M.; Hsu, N. Christina

    1993-01-01

    Atmospheric drag measurements from the orbital decay of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Magellan spacecraft have recently been obtained of the Venus dayside and nightside atmosphere between 130 and 210 km during a period of low solar activity. These new measurements, combined with the earlier Pioneer Venus drag measurements (1978-80) obtained near the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle, have allowed the detection of the detailed response of temperature, atomic oxygen and carbon dioxide to solar variations. We have found a weak but detectable temperature response on the dayside which is in accord with the response predicted by Keating and Bougher when they assumed very strong CO2 radiative cooling resulting from atomic oxygen exciting CO2 into 15 micron emission. This same radiative process may cause strong cooling in the Earth's upper atmosphere with the doubling of CO2 in the future. With decreasing solar activity, the O/CO2 ratio in the lower thermosphere is found to decrease, apparently due to decreased photodissociation of CO2 and lower temperatures. The percent decrease in atomic oxygen with decreasing solar activity on the dayside is found to be approximately the same as the percent decreases of atomic oxygen transported to the nightside. A very weak response of nightside temperatures to solar activity variations has also been detected.

  1. The Venus Atmospheric Response to Solar Cycle Variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keating, Gerald M.; Hsu, N. Christina

    1993-01-01

    Atmospheric drag measurements from the orbital decay of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Magellan spacecraft have recently been obtained of the Venus dayside and nightside atmosphere between 130 and 210 km during a period of low solar activity. These new measurements, combined with the earlier Pioneer Venus drag measurements (1978-80) obtained near the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle, have allowed the detection of the detailed response of temperature, atomic oxygen and carbon dioxide to solar variations. We have found a weak but detectable temperature response on the dayside which is in accord with the response predicted by Keating and Bougher when they assumed very strong CO2 radiative cooling resulting from atomic oxygen exciting CO2 into 15 micron emission. This same radiative process may cause strong cooling in the Earth's upper atmosphere with the doubling of CO2 in the future. With decreasing solar activity, the O/CO2 ratio in the lower thermosphere is found to decrease, apparently due to decreased photodissociation of CO2 and lower temperatures. The percent decrease in atomic oxygen with decreasing solar activity on the dayside is found to be approximately the same as the percent decreases of atomic oxygen transported to the nightside. A very weak response of nightside temperatures to solar activity variations has also been detected.

  2. Solar power satellite life-cycle energy recovery consideration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weingartner, S.; Blumenberg, J.

    The construction, in-orbit installation and maintenance of a solar power satellite (SPS) will demand large amounts of energy. As a minimum requirement for an energy effective power satellite it is asked that this amount of energy be recovered. The energy effectiveness in this sense resulting in a positive net energy balance is a prerequisite for cost-effective power satellite. This paper concentrates on life-cycle energy recovery instead on monetary aspects. The trade-offs between various power generation systems (different types of solar cells, solar dynamic), various construction and installation strategies (using terrestrial or extra-terrestrial resources) and the expected/required lifetime of the SPS are reviewed. The presented work is based on a 2-year study performed at the Technical University of Munich. The study showed that the main energy which is needed to make a solar power satellite a reality is required for the production of the solar power components (up to 65%), especially for the solar cell production. Whereas transport into orbit accounts in the order of 20% and the receiving station on earth (rectenna) requires about 15% of the total energy investment. The energetic amortization time, i.e. the time the SPS has to be operational to give back the amount of energy which was needed for its production installation and operation, is about two years.

  3. Solar power satellite—Life-cycle energy recovery considerations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weingartner, S.; Blumenberg, J.

    1995-05-01

    The construction, in-orbit installation and maintenance of a solar power satellite (SPS) will demand large amounts of energy. As a minimum requirement for an energy effective power satellite it is asked that this amount of energy be recovered. The energy effectiveness in this sense resulting in a positive net energy balance is a prerequisite for a cost-effective power satellite. This paper concentrates on life-cycle energy recovery instead of monetary aspects. The trade-offs between various power generation systems (different types of solar cells, solar dynamic), various construction and installation strategies (using terrestrial or extra-terrestrial resources) and the expected/required lifetime of the SPS are reviewed. The presented work is based on a 2-year study performed at the Technical University of Munich. The study showed that the main energy which is needed to make a solar power satellite a reality is required for the production of the solar power plant components (up to 65%), especially for the solar cell production. Whereas transport into orbit accounts in the order of 20% and the receiving station on Earth (rectenna) requires in the order of 15% of the total energy investment. The energetic amortization time, i.e. the time the SPS has to be operational to give back the amount of energy which was needed for its production, installation and operation, is in the order of two years.

  4. SOLAR WIND HEAVY IONS OVER SOLAR CYCLE 23: ACE/SWICS MEASUREMENTS

    SciTech Connect

    Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

    2013-05-01

    Solar wind plasma and compositional properties reflect the physical properties of the corona and its evolution over time. Studies comparing the previous solar minimum with the most recent, unusual solar minimum indicate that significant environmental changes are occurring globally on the Sun. For example, the magnetic field decreased 30% between the last two solar minima, and the ionic charge states of O have been reported to change toward lower values in the fast wind. In this work, we systematically and comprehensively analyze the compositional changes of the solar wind during cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010 while the Sun moved from solar maximum to solar minimum. We find a systematic change of C, O, Si, and Fe ionic charge states toward lower ionization distributions. We also discuss long-term changes in elemental abundances and show that there is a {approx}50% decrease of heavy ion abundances (He, C, O, Si, and Fe) relative to H as the Sun went from solar maximum to solar minimum. During this time, the relative abundances in the slow wind remain organized by their first ionization potential. We discuss these results and their implications for models of the evolution of the solar atmosphere, and for the identification of the fast and slow wind themselves.

  5. Solar cycle variation of gravity waves observed in OH airglow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelinas, L. J.; Hecht, J. H.; Walterscheid, R. L.; Reid, I. M.; Woithe, J.; Vincent, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    Airglow imaging provides a unique means by which to study many wave-related phenomena in the 80 to 100 km altitude regime. Two-dimensional image observations reveal quasi-monochromatic disturbances associated with atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) as well as small-scale instabilities, often called ripples. Image-averaged temperature and intensity measurements can be used to study the response of the airglow layer to tides and planetary waves, as well as monitor longer-term climatological variations. Here we present results of low and mid-latitude OH airglow observations beginning near solar max of solar cycle 23 and continuing through solar max of cycle 24. Aerospace imagers deployed at Alice Springs (23o42'S, 133o53'E) and Adelaide (34o55'S, 138o36'E) have been operating nearly continuously since ~2001. The imagers employ filters measuring OH Meinel (6, 2) and O2 Atmospheric (0, 1) band emission intensities and temperatures, as well as atmospheric gravity wave parameters. The Aerospace Corporation's Infrared Camera deployed at Maui, HI (20.7N,156.3W), collected more than 700 nights of airglow images from 2002-2005. The camera measures the OH Meinel (4,2) emission at 1.6 um using a 1 second exposure at a 3 second cadence, which allows the study of AGW and ripple features over very short temporal and spatial scales. The camera was relocated to Cerro Pachon, Chile (30.1 S, 70.8 W) and has been operating continuously since 2010. Temperature, intensity and gravity wave climatologies derived from the two Australian airglow imagers span a full solar cycle (solar max to solar max). Emission intensities have been calibrated using background stars, and temperatures have been calibrated with respect to TIMED/SABER temperatures, reducing the influence of instrument degradation on the solar cycle climatology. An automated wave detection algorithm is used to identify quasi monochromatic wave features in the airglow data, including wavelength, wave period and propagation

  6. The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Mitzi

    2013-01-01

    Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

  7. Synoptic Solar Cycle 24 in Corona, Chromosphere, and Photosphere Seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benevolenskaya, E.; Slater, G.; Lemen, J.

    2014-09-01

    The Solar Dynamics Observatory provides multiwavelength imagery from extreme ultraviolet (EUV) to visible light as well as magnetic-field measurements. These data enable us to study the nature of solar activity in different regions of the Sun, from the interior to the corona. For solar-cycle studies, synoptic maps provide a useful way to represent global activity and evolution by extracting a central meridian band from sequences of full-disk images over a full solar Carrington rotation (≈ 27.3 days). We present the global evolution during Solar Cycle 24 from 20 May 2010 to 31 August 2013 (CR 2097 - CR 2140), using synoptic maps constructed from full-disk, line-of-sight magnetic-field imagery and EUV imagery (171 Å, 193 Å, 211 Å, 304 Å, and 335 Å). The synoptic maps have a resolution of 0.1 degree in longitude and steps of 0.001 in sine of latitude. We studied the axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric structures of solar activity using these synoptic maps. To visualize the axisymmetric development of Cycle 24, we generated time-latitude (also called butterfly) images of the solar cycle in all of the wavelengths, by averaging each synoptic map over all longitudes, thus compressing it to a single vertical strip, and then assembling these strips in time order. From these time-latitude images we observe that during the ascending phase of Cycle 24 there is a very good relationship between the integrated magnetic flux and the EUV intensity inside the zone of sunspot activities. We observe a North-South asymmetry of the EUV intensity in high-latitudes. The North-South asymmetry of the emerging magnetic flux developed and resulted in a consequential asymmetry in the timing of the polar magnetic-field reversals.

  8. Solar grand and super-grand cycles derived with PCA from the solar background magnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, Valentina; Shepherd, Simon; Zharkov, Sergei; Popova, Elena

    2016-04-01

    We present principal components analysis (PCA) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21-24. These PCs reveal two main magnetic waves with close frequencies (covering 40% of data variance) travelling from the opposite hemispheres with an increasing phase shift. Extrapolation of these PCs through their summary curve backward for 2000 years reveals a number of ~350-year grand cycles and about 2000 super-grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past. The summary curve calculated forward for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 25-27 when the two magnetic field waves have a phase shift of 11 years. We explore a role of other independent components derived with PCA and their expected effects on the resulting summary curve, or solar activity curve. We suggest that these grand and super-grand cycles can be produced by two dynamo waves generated in different layers with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects that is discussed in the work by Popova et al (2016) presented here. This approach opens a new era in investigation and prediction of solar activity on long-term timescales.

  9. Drought over Seoul and Its Association with Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Jong-Hyeok; Chang, Heon-Young

    2013-12-01

    We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI). We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period) may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.

  10. Solar cycle variation of large-scale coronal structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Antonucci, E.; Duvall, T. L.

    1974-01-01

    A green line intensity variation is associated with the interplanetary and photospheric magnetic sector structure. This effect depends on the solar cycle and occurs with the same amplitude in the latitude range 60 deg N - 60 deg S. Extended longitudinal coronal structures are suggested, which indicate the existence of closed magnetic field lines over the neutral line, separating adjacent regions of opposite polarities on the photospheric surface.

  11. Design and fabrication of brayton cycle solar heat receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendelson, I.

    1971-01-01

    A detail design and fabrication of a solar heat receiver using lithium fluoride as the heat storage material was completed. A gas flow analysis was performed to achieve uniform flow distribution within overall pressure drop limitations. Structural analyses and allowable design criteria were developed for anticipated environments such as launch, pressure containment, and thermal cycling. A complete heat receiver assembly was fabricated almost entirely from the refractory alloy, niobium-1% zirconium.

  12. Proton activity of the Sun in current solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chuan; Miroshnichenko, Leonty I.; Fang, Cheng

    2015-07-01

    We present a study of seven large solar proton events in the current solar cycle 24 (from 2009 January up to the current date). They were recorded by the GOES spacecraft with the highest proton fluxes being over 200 pfu for energies >10 MeV. In situ particle measurements show that: (1) The profiles of the proton fluxes are highly dependent on the locations of their solar sources, namely flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which confirms the “heliolongitude rules” associated with solar energetic particle fluxes; (2) The solar particle release (SPR) times fall in the decay phase of the flare emission, and are in accordance with the times when the CMEs travel to an average height of 7.9 solar radii; and (3) The time differences between the SPR and the flare peak are also dependent on the locations of the solar active regions. The results tend to support the scenario of proton acceleration by the CME-driven shock, even though there exists a possibility of particle acceleration at the flare site, with subsequent perpendicular diffusion of accelerated particles in the interplanetary magnetic field. We derive the integral time-of-maximum spectra of solar protons in two forms: a single power-law distribution and a power law roll-over with an exponential tail. It is found that the unique ground level enhancement that occurred in the event on 2012 May 17 displays the hardest spectrum and the largest roll-over energy which may explain why this event could extend to relativistic energies. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

  13. The floor in the solar wind: status report

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, E. W.

    2012-07-01

    Cliver & Ling (2010) recently suggested that the solar wind had a floor or ground-state magnetic field strength at Earth of ~2.8 nT and that the source of the field was the slow solar wind. This picture has recently been given impetus by the evidence presented by Schrijver et al. (2011) that the Sun has a minimal magnetic state that was approached globally in 2009, a year in which Earth was imbedded in slow solar wind ~70% of the time. A precursor relation between the solar dipole field strength at solar minimum and the peak sunspot number (SSN MAX ) of the subsequent 11-yr cycle suggests that during Maunder-type minima (when SSN MAX was ~0), the solar polar field strength approaches zero - indicating weak or absent polar coronal holes and an increase to nearly ~100% in the time that Earth spends in slow solar wind.

  14. Developing a Solar Magnetic Catalog Spanning Four Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werginz, Zachary; Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Michael D.; Vargas Acosta, Juan Pablo; Vargas Dominguez, Santiago; Zhang, Jie; Longcope, Dana; Martens, Petrus C.

    2016-05-01

    Bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are the cornerstone of solar cycle propagation, the building blocks that give structure to the solar atmosphere, and the origin of the majority of space weather events. However, in spite of their importance, there is no homogeneous BMR catalog spanning the era of systematic solar magnetic field measurements. Here we present the results of an ongoing project to address this deficiency applying the Bipolar Active Region Detection (BARD) code to magnetograms from the 512 Channel of the Kitt Peak Vaccum Telescope, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI.The BARD code automatically identifies BMRs and tracks them as they are rotated by differential rotation. The output of the automatic detection is supervised by a human observer to correct possible mistakes made by the automatic algorithm (like incorrect pairings and tracking mislabels). Extra passes are made to integrate fragmented regions as well as to balance the flux between BMR polarities. At the moment, our BMR database includes 6,885 unique objects (detected and tracked) belonging to four separate solar cycles (21-24).

  15. IS SOLAR CYCLE 24 PRODUCING MORE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS THAN CYCLE 23?

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Y.-M.; Colaninno, R. E-mail: robin.colaninno@nrl.navy.mil

    2014-04-01

    Although sunspot numbers are roughly a factor of two lower in the current cycle than in cycle 23, the rate of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appears to be at least as high in 2011-2013 as during the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, according to three catalogs that list events observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). However, the number of CMEs detected is sensitive to such factors as the image cadence and the tendency (especially by human observers) to under-/overcount small or faint ejections during periods of high/low activity. In contrast to the total number, the total mass of CMEs is determined mainly by larger events. Using the mass measurements of 11,000 CMEs given in the manual CDAW catalog, we find that the mass loss rate remains well correlated with the sunspot number during cycle 24. In the case of the automated CACTus and SEEDS catalogs, the large increase in the number of CMEs during cycle 24 is almost certainly an artifact caused by the near-doubling of the LASCO image cadence after mid-2010. We confirm that fast CMEs undergo a much stronger solar-cycle variation than slow ones, and that the relative frequency of slow and less massive CMEs increases with decreasing sunspot number. We conclude that cycle 24 is not only producing fewer CMEs than cycle 23, but that these ejections also tend to be slower and less massive than those observed one cycle earlier.

  16. Is Solar Cycle 24 Producing More Coronal Mass Ejections Than Cycle 23?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.-M.; Colaninno, R.

    2014-04-01

    Although sunspot numbers are roughly a factor of two lower in the current cycle than in cycle 23, the rate of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appears to be at least as high in 2011-2013 as during the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, according to three catalogs that list events observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). However, the number of CMEs detected is sensitive to such factors as the image cadence and the tendency (especially by human observers) to under-/overcount small or faint ejections during periods of high/low activity. In contrast to the total number, the total mass of CMEs is determined mainly by larger events. Using the mass measurements of 11,000 CMEs given in the manual CDAW catalog, we find that the mass loss rate remains well correlated with the sunspot number during cycle 24. In the case of the automated CACTus and SEEDS catalogs, the large increase in the number of CMEs during cycle 24 is almost certainly an artifact caused by the near-doubling of the LASCO image cadence after mid-2010. We confirm that fast CMEs undergo a much stronger solar-cycle variation than slow ones, and that the relative frequency of slow and less massive CMEs increases with decreasing sunspot number. We conclude that cycle 24 is not only producing fewer CMEs than cycle 23, but that these ejections also tend to be slower and less massive than those observed one cycle earlier.

  17. Polar Coronal Holes during the Past Solar Cycle: Ulysses Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Steiger, R.; Zurbuchen, T.

    2009-12-01

    During its nearly 19 year mission, Ulysses pioneered novel measurements of the three-dimensional heliosphere and particularly provided the first in situ observations of solar wind from polar coronal holes (PCHs). These PCH-associated solar wind streams show long-term variability in both dynamic and also compositional signatures. Between the polar passages in 1994-95 and in 2007-08, the C and O freeze-in temperatures measured in high-latitude solar wind have decreased by ~15 % and are now around 0.86 MK and 1.0 MK, respectively. Si and Fe ionization states also exhibit a substantial cooling with a reduction of 0.4 and 0.5 charge states on average, respectively. On the other hand, there no significant changes of the elemental composition of the solar wind, as exhibited through the First Ionization Potential fractionation effect, which has remained at f = 1.8±0.3 during both sets of polar passages, i.e., enhanced to the photospheric composition (f = 1). Thus, it appears that the PCH of cycle 23 are cooler overall than those of cycle 22, while their elemental composition has remained unchanged, thus confirming their status as the “ground state” of the solar wind. These observations, together with the observed ~15 % reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field (Smith and Balogh, 2008), and the ~17 % and ~14 % reductions in density and temperature, respectively (McComas et al., 2008), provide a unique test for theories of the solar wind and its composition, in particular for the concept of freezing-in of charge states and of the FIP fractionation effect. We will present results from this analysis of SWICS data and also discuss the scientific implications of these novel results.

  18. ON THE 'EXTENDED' SOLAR CYCLE IN CORONAL EMISSION

    SciTech Connect

    Robbrecht, E.; Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R.; Rich, N. B. E-mail: yi.wang@nrl.navy.mi E-mail: nathan.rich@nrl.navy.mi

    2010-06-10

    Butterfly diagrams (latitude-time plots) of coronal emission show a zone of enhanced brightness that appears near the poles just after solar maximum and migrates toward lower latitudes; a bifurcation seems to occur at sunspot minimum, with one branch continuing to migrate equatorward with the sunspots of the new cycle and the other branch heading back to the poles. The resulting patterns have been likened to those seen in torsional oscillations and have been taken as evidence for an extended solar cycle lasting over {approx}17 yr. In order to clarify the nature of the overlapping bands of coronal emission, we construct butterfly diagrams from green-line simulations covering the period 1967-2009 and from 19.5 nm and 30.4 nm observations taken with the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope during 1996-2009. As anticipated from earlier studies, we find that the high-latitude enhancements mark the footpoint areas of closed loops with one end rooted outside the evolving boundaries of the polar coronal holes. The strong underlying fields were built up over the declining phase of the cycle through the poleward transport of active-region flux by the surface meridional flow. Rather than being a precursor of the new-cycle sunspot activity zone, the high-latitude emission forms a physically distinct, U-shaped band that curves upward again as active-region fields emerge at midlatitudes and reconnect with the receding polar-hole boundaries. We conclude that the so-called extended cycle in coronal emission is a manifestation not of early new-cycle activity, but of the poleward concentration of old-cycle trailing-polarity flux by meridional flow.

  19. On the "Extended" Solar Cycle in Coronal Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robbrecht, E.; Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R., Jr.; Rich, N. B.

    2010-06-01

    Butterfly diagrams (latitude-time plots) of coronal emission show a zone of enhanced brightness that appears near the poles just after solar maximum and migrates toward lower latitudes; a bifurcation seems to occur at sunspot minimum, with one branch continuing to migrate equatorward with the sunspots of the new cycle and the other branch heading back to the poles. The resulting patterns have been likened to those seen in torsional oscillations and have been taken as evidence for an extended solar cycle lasting over ~17 yr. In order to clarify the nature of the overlapping bands of coronal emission, we construct butterfly diagrams from green-line simulations covering the period 1967-2009 and from 19.5 nm and 30.4 nm observations taken with the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope during 1996-2009. As anticipated from earlier studies, we find that the high-latitude enhancements mark the footpoint areas of closed loops with one end rooted outside the evolving boundaries of the polar coronal holes. The strong underlying fields were built up over the declining phase of the cycle through the poleward transport of active-region flux by the surface meridional flow. Rather than being a precursor of the new-cycle sunspot activity zone, the high-latitude emission forms a physically distinct, U-shaped band that curves upward again as active-region fields emerge at midlatitudes and reconnect with the receding polar-hole boundaries. We conclude that the so-called extended cycle in coronal emission is a manifestation not of early new-cycle activity, but of the poleward concentration of old-cycle trailing-polarity flux by meridional flow.

  20. Study of intensive solar flares in the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24 and other activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, S. Prasanna; Shanmugaraju, A.

    2016-02-01

    We present a statistical study and comparison on the properties of intensive solar flares (>M5.0 X-ray flare), decameter-hectometric (DH) wavelength [frequency, 1-14 MHz] type II radio bursts and solar energetic particle (SEP) events during the rising phase of solar cycles 23 and 24. The period of study is May 1996-November 2000 for solar cycle 23 and December 2008-June 2013 for solar cycle 24. Apart from reported weakness of solar cycle 24 compared to the cycle 23, we noted the following differences between the two cycles on the properties of these activities associated with intensive flares: (i) The reduction in the number of intensive flares (>M5.0 class) in cycle 24 is ˜34 %, similar to the reduction in sunspot number reported by Gopalswamy et al. (2014a); (ii) The slightly higher mean starting-frequency (4.15 MHz) and lower ending frequency (0.58 MHz) in cycle 24 compared to those of cycle 23 (2.63 and 0.89 MHz, respectively) indicate that the radio emission of this cycle started closer to the Sun and the CME-shock travelled farther away from the Sun in cycle 24; (iv) Cycle 23 produced a nearly equal number of SEP events as cycle 24 during the rising phase. The correlation between SEP intensity and CME speed is more prominent in cycle 23 (CC=0.7) than in cycle 24 (CC=0.3).

  1. SOLAR-CYCLE VARIATION OF SOUND SPEED NEAR THE SOLAR SURFACE

    SciTech Connect

    Rabello-Soares, M. C.

    2012-02-01

    We present evidence that the sound-speed variation with solar activity has a two-layer configuration, similar to the one observed below an active region, which consists of a negative layer near the solar surface and a positive one in the layer immediately below the first one. Frequency differences between the activity minimum and maximum of solar cycle 23, obtained applying global helioseismology to the Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, is used to determine the sound-speed variation from below the base of the convection zone to a few Mm below the solar surface. We find that the sound speed at solar maximum is smaller than at solar minimum at the limit of our determination (5.5 Mm). The min-to-max difference decreases in absolute values until {approx}7 Mm. At larger depths, the sound speed at solar maximum is larger than at solar minimum and the difference increases with depth until {approx}10 Mm. At this depth, the relative difference ({delta}c{sup 2}/c{sup 2}) is less than half of the value observed at the lowest depth determination. At deeper layers, it slowly decreases with depth until there is no difference between maximum and minimum activity.

  2. Solar UV Spectral Irradiance Measured by SUSIM During Solar Cycle 22 and 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrill, J. S.; Floyd, L. E.; McMullin, D. R.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding the impact of solar variability on terrestrial climate requires detailed knowledge of both solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and total solar irradiance (TSI). Observations of SSI in the ultraviolet (UV) have been made by various space-based missions since 1978. Of these missions, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) included the Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) experiment which measured the UV SSI from 1991 into 2005. In this talk, we present the UV spectral irradiance observations from SUSIM on UARS during solar cycles 22 and 23 along with results of a recent review of the calibration, stability, and in-flight performance. Another more recent mission is the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite which carries the Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Solar Irradiance Monitor (SIM). Together, the SORCE instruments have measured the UV, Visible, and IR SSI over the period of 2003 to the present. This talk will include a comparison between SUSIM and SORCE during the period of overlapping observations as well as comparisons of UV spectra observed at various times, particularly during the last two solar minima. These comparisons show that the UV observations by SORCE are inconsistent with those measured by SUSIM.

  3. Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2012-10-01

    Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

  4. Discrepant responses of the global electron content to the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of EUV irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yiding; Liu, Libo; Le, Huijun; Zhang, Hui

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, the responses of the ionosphere to the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance are comparatively investigated using daily mean global electron content (GEC) and 0.1-50 nm EUV daily flux. GEC is well correlated with EUV on both the solar cycle and solar rotation timescales; however, the responses of GEC to the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of EUV are significantly different in terms of the following two aspects: (1) There is a significant time lag between the solar rotation variations of GEC and EUV; the lag is dominated by a 1-day lag and generally presents a decrease trend with solar activity decreasing. For the solar cycle variations of GEC and EUV, however, there are no evident time lags. (2) The GEC versus EUV slopes are different for the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of GEC and EUV; the solar cycle GEC versus EUV slope is higher than the solar rotation GEC versus EUV slope, and this difference occurs in different seasons and latitudinal bands. The results present an aspect of the difference between ionospheric climatology and weather.

  5. Solar cycle variation of the statistical distribution of the solar wind ɛ parameter and its constituent variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

    2016-06-01

    We use 20 years of Wind solar wind observations to investigate the solar cycle variation of the solar wind driving of the magnetosphere. For the first time, we use generalized quantile-quantile plots to compare the statistical distribution of four commonly used solar wind coupling parameters, Poynting flux, B2, the ɛ parameter, and vB, between the maxima and minima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find the distribution is multicomponent and has the same functional form at all solar cycle phases; the change in distribution is captured by a simple transformation of variables for each component. The ɛ parameter is less sensitive than its constituent variables to changes in the distribution of extreme values between successive solar maxima. The quiet minimum of cycle 23 manifests only in lower extreme values, while cycle 24 was less active across the full distribution range.

  6. Towards better constrained models of the solar magnetic cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

    2010-12-01

    The best tools we have for understanding the origin of solar magnetic variability are kinematic dynamo models. During the last decade, this type of models has seen a continuous evolution and has become increasingly successful at reproducing solar cycle characteristics. The basic ingredients of these models are: the solar differential rotation -- which acts as the main source of energy for the system by shearing the magnetic field; the meridional circulation -- which plays a crucial role in magnetic field transport; the turbulent diffusivity -- which attempts to capture the effect of convective turbulence on the large scale magnetic field; and the poloidal field source -- which closes the cycle by regenerating the poloidal magnetic field. However, most of these ingredients remain poorly constrained which allows one to obtain solar-like solutions by "tuning" the input parameters, leading to controversy regarding which parameter set is more appropriate. In this thesis we revisit each of those ingredients in an attempt to constrain them better by using observational data and theoretical considerations, reducing the amount of free parameters in the model. For the meridional flow and differential rotation we use helioseismic data to constrain free parameters and find that the differential rotation is well determined, but the available data can only constrain the latitudinal dependence of the meridional flow. For the turbulent magnetic diffusivity we show that combining mixing-length theory estimates with magnetic quenching allows us to obtain viable magnetic cycles and that the commonly used diffusivity profiles can be understood as a spatiotemporal average of this process. For the poloidal source we introduce a more realistic way of modeling active region emergence and decay and find that this resolves existing discrepancies between kinematic dynamo models and surface flux transport simulations. We also study the physical mechanisms behind the unusually long minimum of

  7. Sun's Polar Magnetic Field Reversals in Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pishkalo, M. I.; Leiko, U. M.

    It is known that polar magnetic field of the Sun changes its sign at the maximum of solar cycle. These changes were called as polar field reversals. We investigated dynamics of high-latitude solar magnetic fields separately in northern and southern hemispheres. Solar polar field strength measurements from the Wilcox Solar Observatory and low-resolution synoptic magnetic maps from the SOLIS project and from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory were used. We analyzed total magnetic flux at near-polar zones, starting from 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80 and 85 degrees of latitude, and found time points when the total magnetic flux changed its sign. It was concluded that total magnetic flux changed its sign at first at lower latitudes and finally near the poles. Single polar magnetic field reversal was found in the southern hemisphere. The northern hemisphere was characterized by three-fold magnetic field reversal. Polar magnetic field reversals finished in northern and southern hemispheres by CR 2150 and CR 2162, respectively.

  8. On the prospect of using butterfly diagrams to predict cycle minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    Features enabling the prediction of the beginning and the length of a solar cycle, in addition to the turning points in the period-growth dichotomy, have been identified based on butterfly diagrams for the period from 1874 to the present. The present results indicate that cycle 21 will be a long-period cycle ending after July 1987. On the assumption that April 1985 was the first occurrence of high latitude new cycle (cycle 22) spots during the decline of cycle 21 (the old cycle), it is suggested that the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots was September 1983 and that the minimum for cycle 22 will be about 1986.7 + or - 1.1 yr.

  9. A new simple dynamo model for solar activity cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Schmitt, Dieter

    2015-04-01

    The solar magnetic activity cycle has been investigated in an elaborated manner with several types of dynamo models [1]. In most of the current mean-field approaches, the inhomogeneity of the large-scale flow is treated as an essential ingredient in the mean magnetic field equation whereas it is completely neglected in the turbulence equation. In this work, a new simple model for the solar activity cycle is proposed. The present model differs from the previous ones mainly in two points. First, in addition to the helicity coefficient α, we consider a term related to the cross helicity, which represents the effect of the inhomogeneous mean flow, in the turbulent electromotive force [2, 3]. Second, this transport coefficient (γ) is not treated as an adjustable parameter, but the evolution equation for γ is simultaneously solved. The basic scenario for the solar activity cycle in this approach is as follows: The toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation in mediation by the turbulent cross helicity. Then due to the α or helicity effect, the poloidal field is generated from the toroidal field. The poloidal field induced by the α effect produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative cross-helicity production). The cross helicity with this opposite sign induces a reversed toroidal field. Results of the eigenvalue analysis of the model equations are shown, which confirm the above scenario. References [1] Charbonneau, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 7, 3 (2010). [2] Yoshizawa, A. Phys. Fluids B 2, 1589 (1990). [3] Yokoi, N. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 107, 114 (2013).

  10. Solar cycle and diurnal dependence of auroral structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partamies, N.; Whiter, D.; Syrjäsuo, M.; Kauristie, K.

    2014-10-01

    In order to facilitate usage of optical data in space climate studies, we have developed an automated algorithm to quantify the complexity of auroral structures as they appear in ground-based all-sky images. The image analysis is based on a computationally determined "arciness" value, which describes how arc like the auroral structures in the image are. With this new automatic method we have analyzed the type of aurora in about 1 million images of green aurora (λ = 557.7nm) captured at five camera stations in Finnish and Swedish Lapland in 1996-2007. We found that highly arc like structures can be observed in any time sector and their portion of the auroral structures varies much less than the fraction of more complex forms. The diurnal distribution of arciness is in agreement with an earlier study with high arc occurrence rate in the evening hours and steadily decreasing toward the late morning hours. The evolution of less arc-like auroral structures is more dependent on the level of geomagnetic activity and solar cycle than the occurrence of arcs. The median arciness is higher during the years close to the solar minimum than during the rest of the solar cycle. Unlike earlier proposed, the occurrence rate of both arcs and more complex auroral structures increases toward the solar maximum and decreases toward the solar minimum. The cyclic behavior of auroral structures seen in our data is much more systematic and clear than previously reported visual studies suggest. The continuous arciness index describing the complexity of auroral structures can improve our understanding on auroral morphology beyond the few commonly accepted structure classes, such as arcs, patches, and omega bands. Arciness can further be used to study the relationship of auroral structures at different complexity levels and magnetospheric dynamics.

  11. Effects of solar cycle 24 activity on WAAS navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Datta-Barua, Seebany; Walter, Todd; Bust, Gary S.; Wanner, William

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews the effects of geomagnetic activity of solar cycle 24 from 2011 through mid-2013 on the Federal Aviation Administration's Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) navigation service in the U.S., to identify (a) major impacts and their severity compared with the previous cycle and (b) effects in new service regions of North America added since last solar cycle. We examine two cases: a storm that reduced service coverage for several hours and ionospheric scintillation that led to anomalous receiver tracking. Using the 24-25 October 2011 storm as an example, we examine WAAS operational system coverage for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The WAAS algorithm upgrade to ionospheric estimation, in effect since late 2011, is able to mitigate the daytime coverage loss but not the nighttime loss. We correlate WAAS availability to maps of the storm plasma generated with the data assimilative model Ionospheric Data Assimilation 4-D, which show a local nighttime corotating persistent plume of plasma extending from Florida across central CONUS. We study the effect of scintillation on 9 October 2012 on the WAAS reference station at Fairbanks, Alaska. Data from a nearby scintillation monitor in Gakona and all-sky imaging of aurora at Poker Flat corroborate the event. Anomalous receiver processing triggered by scintillation reduces accuracy at Fairbanks for a few minutes. Users experiencing similar effects would have their confidence bounds inflated, possibly trading off service continuity for safety. The activity to date in solar cycle 24 has had minor effects on WAAS service coverage, mainly occurring in Alaska and Canada.

  12. A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1978-01-01

    On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

  13. A Complete Catalogue of High-Speed Solar Wind Streams during Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xystouris, G.; Sigala, E.; Mavromichalaki, H.

    2014-03-01

    High-speed solar wind streams (HSSWSs) are ejected from the Sun and travel into the interplanetary space. Because of their high speed, they carry out energetic particles such as protons and heavy ions, which leads to an increase in the mean interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Since the Earth is in the path of those streams, Earth's magnetosphere interacts with the disturbed magnetic field, leading to a significant radiation-induced degradation of technological systems. These interactions provide an enhanced energy transfer from the solar wind/IMF system into the Earth's magnetosphere and initiate geomagnetic disturbances that may have a possible impact on human health. Solar cycle 23 was a particularly unusual cycle with many energetic phenomena during its descending phase and also had an extended minimum. We have identified and catalogued the HSSWSs of this cycle and determined their characteristics, such as their maximum velocity, beginning and ending time, duration, and possible sources. We identified 710 HSSWSs and compared them with the corresponding characteristics of the streams of previous solar cycles. For first time, we used the CME data to study the stream sources, which led to useful results for the monitoring and forecasting of space weather effects.

  14. Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records.

    PubMed

    Turner, T Edward; Swindles, Graeme T; Charman, Dan J; Langdon, Peter G; Morris, Paul J; Booth, Robert K; Parry, Lauren E; Nichols, Jonathan E

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. (14)C or (10)Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40-100 years, and 120-140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation. PMID:27045989

  15. Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records

    PubMed Central

    Turner, T. Edward; Swindles, Graeme T.; Charman, Dan J.; Langdon, Peter G.; Morris, Paul J.; Booth, Robert K.; Parry, Lauren E.; Nichols, Jonathan E.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. 14C or 10Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40–100 years, and 120–140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation. PMID:27045989

  16. Ground-Level Solar Cosmic Ray Data from Solar Cycle 19

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shea, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this grant was to locate, catalog, and assemble, in standard computer format, ground-level solar cosmic ray data acquired by cosmic ray detectors for selected events in the 19th solar cycle. The events for which we initially proposed to obtain these data were for the events of 23 February 1956,4 May 1960, 12 and 15 November 1960 and 18 and 20 July 1961. These were the largest events of the 19th solar cycle. However, a severe (more than 50%) reduction in the requested funding, required the work effort be limited to neutron monitor data for the 23 February 1956 event and the three major events in 1960.

  17. Line-depth and Teff variations with the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caccin, B.; Penza, V.

    2002-03-01

    We show that the sensitivity of line-depth ratios, used as indicators of Teff variations (δTeff = C0δr/r), are sensibly dependent on surface gravity. We propose a theoretical calibration, including a careful treatment of the convective transport and its dependence on surface gravity (Canuto & Mazzitelli, 1991; Ludwig et al. 1999), which fits very well the stellar observations by Gray & Livingston (1997) of the same lines monitored at Kitt Peak since 1976 (C I 538.032 nm, Fe I 537.958 nm and Ti II 538.103 nm). The immediate consequence is the impossibility of applying the empirical calibration used by Gray & Livingston (1997) to interpret the line variations with the solar cycle, because it was derived from stars of different surface gravity, while in the solar case the value of g remains practically constant. Using our theoretical values of C0, we obtain a Teff variation too large, which would produce almost twice the measured variation of irradiance. However, as already showed by Caccin & Penza (2000), a simultaneous variation of the granulation size of the order of that observed (Muller & Roudier, 1984) might compensate for this excess. Therefore the observed variations of line-depth ratios with the solar cycle might be consistent with a dominant contribution of bright & dark magnetic regions to the total irradiance variations.

  18. Solar Cycle Variability in New Merge Satellite Ozone Datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, A.; Pisoft, P.

    2014-12-01

    Studies using coupled chemistry climate model simulations of the solar cycle in the ozone field reveal agreement with the observed "double-peaked" ozone anomaly in the original satellite observations represented by SBUV(/2), HALOE and SAGE datasets. The motivation of our analysis is to examine whether the solar signal in the last generation of reanalyzed datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-INTERIM) is consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Since an analysis of the solar cycle response requires long-term and temporal homogeneous time series of the ozone profile and no single satellite instrument has covered the entire period since 1984, satellite measurements in our study are represented by new merged satellite ozone datasets, i.e. GOZCARDS, SBUV MOD and SWOOSH datasets. The results of the presented study are based on the attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques besides traditional linear approach based on the multiple linear models. The study results are supplemented by a frequency analysis using the pseudo-2D wavelet transform algorithms.

  19. Solar-Cycle Evolution of Subsurface Flows and Magnetic Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Zhao, Junwei

    2016-05-01

    Local helioseismology and magnetic field measurements from the HMI instrument on SDO provide unique high-resolution data that allow us to investigate detailed dynamics of the upper convection zone and its relation to the magnetic field evolution during the first five years of the current solar cycle. This study is focused on the understanding the role of the near-surface shear layer (NSSL) in the dynamo process, generation, emergence and transport of the solar magnetic flux. The helioseismology data represent 3D flow maps in the depth range of 0-20 Mm, obtained uninterruptedly every 8 hours for almost the whole solar disk with the spatial sampling of two arcsec. We calculate the flow characteristics (such as divergence, vorticity and kinetic helicity) on different spatio-temporal scales from supergranulation to global-scale zonal and meridional flows. We investigate the multi-scale organization of the subsurface flows, including the inflows into active regions, the hemispheric `flip-flop’ asymmetry of variations of the meridional flows, the structure and dynamics of torsional oscillations, and compare the flow behavior with the evolution of the observed magnetic activity of the current cycle.

  20. The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

    2004-01-01

    A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength.

  1. The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, T.-L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Russell, C. T.

    1990-01-01

    The Venus terminator bow shock position is monitored and it is shown that the shock radius increases as the solar cycle approaches a new maximum. It is also shown that the subsolar bow shock changes with the solar cycle, and that these positions are correlated with each other and with solar activity. It is hypothesized that, at solar minimum, the magnetic barrier is weak, and that some absorption of solar wind is to be expected.

  2. Auroral electrojets during deep solar minimum at the end of solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulkkinen, T. I.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Viljanen, A.; Partamies, N.; Kauristie, K.

    2011-04-01

    We investigate the auroral electrojet activity during the deep minimum at the end of solar cycle 23 (2008-2009) by comparing data from the IMAGE magnetometer chain, auroral observations in Fennoscandia and Svalbard, and solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from the OMNI database from that period with those recorded one solar cycle earlier. We examine the eastward and westward electrojets and the midnight sector separately. The electrojets during 2008-2009 were found to be weaker and at more poleward latitudes than during other times, but when similar driving solar wind and IMF conditions are compared, the behavior in the morning and evening sectors during 2008-2009 was similar to other periods. On the other hand, the midnight sector shows distinct behavior during 2008-2009: for similar driving conditions, the electrojets resided at further poleward latitudes and on average were weaker than during other periods. Furthermore, the substorm occurrence frequency seemed to saturate to a minimum level for very low levels of driving during 2009. This analysis suggests that the solar wind coupling to the ionosphere during 2008-2009 was similar to other periods but that the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling has features that are unique to this period of very low solar activity.

  3. Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

    1994-01-01

    We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

  4. Galactic and solar radiation exposure to aircrew during a solar cycle.

    PubMed

    Lewis, B J; Bennett, L G I; Green, A R; McCall, M J; Ellaschuk, B; Butler, A; Pierre, M

    2002-01-01

    An on-going investigation using a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been carried out to measure the ambient dose equivalent rate of the cosmic radiation exposure of aircrew during a solar cycle. A semi-empirical model has been derived from these data to allow for the interpolation of the dose rate for any global position. The model has been extended to an altitude of up to 32 km with further measurements made on board aircraft and several balloon flights. The effects of changing solar modulation during the solar cycle are characterised by correlating the dose rate data to different solar potential models. Through integration of the dose-rate function over a great circle flight path or between given waypoints, a Predictive Code for Aircrew Radiation Exposure (PCAIRE) has been further developed for estimation of the route dose from galactic cosmic radiation exposure. This estimate is provided in units of ambient dose equivalent as well as effective dose, based on E/H x (10) scaling functions as determined from transport code calculations with LUIN and FLUKA. This experimentally based treatment has also been compared with the CARI-6 and EPCARD codes that are derived solely from theoretical transport calculations. Using TEPC measurements taken aboard the International Space Station, ground based neutron monitoring, GOES satellite data and transport code analysis, an empirical model has been further proposed for estimation of aircrew exposure during solar particle events. This model has been compared to results obtained during recent solar flare events. PMID:12430961

  5. Solar and interplanetary particles at 2 to 4 MEV during solar cycles 21, solar cycle variations of event sizes, and compositions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, T. P.; Eckes, S.; Shields, J. C.; Briggs, P. R.

    1985-01-01

    In This paper 2 to 4 MeV/nucleon protons, alpha particles, and medium (CNO) nuclei in the near-Earth interplanetary medium during the years 1974 to 1981 are studied. This period contains both the solar activity minimum in 1976, and the very active onset phase of Solar Cycle 21. Characteristic compositional differences between the solar minimum and solar maximum ion populations have been investigated. Previous studies of interplanetary composition at these energies have concentrated on well-defined samples of the heliospheric medium. During flare particle events, the ambient plasma is dominated by ions accelerated in specific regions of the solar atmosphere; observation of the proton/alpha and alpha/medium ratios for flare events shows that there is marked compositional variability both during an event and from event to event suggesting the complicated nature of flare particle production and transport.

  6. Solar Thermochemical Fuels Production: Solar Fuels via Partial Redox Cycles with Heat Recovery

    SciTech Connect

    2011-12-19

    HEATS Project: The University of Minnesota is developing a solar thermochemical reactor that will efficiently produce fuel from sunlight, using solar energy to produce heat to break chemical bonds. The University of Minnesota is envisioning producing the fuel by using partial redox cycles and ceria-based reactive materials. The team will achieve unprecedented solar-to-fuel conversion efficiencies of more than 10% (where current state-of-the-art efficiency is 1%) by combined efforts and innovations in material development, and reactor design with effective heat recovery mechanisms and demonstration. This new technology will allow for the effective use of vast domestic solar resources to produce precursors to synthetic fuels that could replace gasoline.

  7. Solar cycle effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Kirk, B.L.; Rust, B.W.

    1983-01-01

    The authors present a causal time-series model for the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 record which supersedes a mathematical model consisting of four effects represented by exponential and sine functions. One effect is a 142-month oscillation which trails the sunspot numbers by exactly a quarter-cycle. This suggests that solar activity affects the rate of change in the atmospheric CO2 abundance. The new model replaces the mathematical functions with four measured time series representing proposed physical causes and reduces the number of adjustable parameters from 13 to 5 with no significant deterioration in the fit. The authors present evidence that solar activity affects the CO2 abundance through variations in ocean temperature or circulation.

  8. The variations of prominence activities during solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimojo, Masumi

    The prominence activities (prominence eruption/disappearance) in the solar atmosphere closely relate with the CMEs that cause great influences on heliosphere and magnetosphere. Gopal-swarmy et al. (2003) reported that 72 The Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH) is observing Sun in microwave (17 GHz) since 1992. At a flare, the main component of the microwave from Sun is emitted from non-thermal electrons that are accelerated by flare. On the other hand, the main component of the microwave is thermal emission when Sun is quiet, and a prominence is clearly observed in microwave because there is the prominence on the limb. We developed the automatic prominence activity detection program based on 17 GHz images observed by NoRH, and investigated the variation of the properties of the prominence activities that oc-curred from 1992 to the end of 2009. We found the following results. 1. The variation in the number of prominence activities is similar to that of sunspots during one solar cycle but there are differences between the peak times of prominence activities and sunspots. 2. The frequency distribution as a function of the magnitude of the prominence activities the size of activated prominences at each phase shows a power-law distribution. The power-law index of the distribution does not change except around the solar minimum. 3. The number of promi-nence activities has a dependence on the latitude On the other hand the average magnitude is independent of the latitude. In the paper, we will also discuss the relationship the other properties of prominence eruptions, solar cycle and the photospheric magnetic field.

  9. Solar photospheric network properties and their cycle variation

    SciTech Connect

    Thibault, K.; Charbonneau, P.; Béland, M. E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca-b

    2014-11-20

    We present a numerical simulation of the formation and evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic network over a full solar cycle. The model exhibits realistic behavior as it produces large, unipolar concentrations of flux in the polar caps, a power-law flux distribution with index –1.69, a flux replacement timescale of 19.3 hr, and supergranule diameters of 20 Mm. The polar behavior is especially telling of model accuracy, as it results from lower-latitude activity, and accumulates the residues of any potential modeling inaccuracy and oversimplification. In this case, the main oversimplification is the absence of a polar sink for the flux, causing an amount of polar cap unsigned flux larger than expected by almost one order of magnitude. Nonetheless, our simulated polar caps carry the proper signed flux and dipole moment, and also show a spatial distribution of flux in good qualitative agreement with recent high-latitude magnetographic observations by Hinode. After the last cycle emergence, the simulation is extended until the network has recovered its quiet Sun initial condition. This permits an estimate of the network relaxation time toward the baseline state characterizing extended periods of suppressed activity, such as the Maunder Grand Minimum. Our simulation results indicate a network relaxation time of 2.9 yr, setting 2011 October as the soonest the time after which the last solar activity minimum could have qualified as a Maunder-type Minimum. This suggests that photospheric magnetism did not reach its baseline state during the recent extended minimum between cycles 23 and 24.

  10. Solar cycle according to mean magnetic field data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obridko, V. N.; Sokoloff, D. D.; Kuzanyan, K. M.; Shelting, B. D.; Zakharov, V. G.

    2006-01-01

    To investigate the shape of the solar cycle, we have performed a wavelet analysis of the large-scale magnetic field data for 1960-2000 for several latitudinal belts and have isolated the following quasi-periodic components: ~22, 7 and 2 yr. The main 22-yr oscillation dominates all latitudinal belts except the latitudes of +/-30° from the equator. The butterfly diagram for the nominal 22-yr oscillation shows a standing dipole wave in the low-latitude domain (|θ|<= 30°) and another wave in the sub-polar domain (|θ|>= 35°), which migrates slowly polewards. The phase shift between these waves is about π. The nominal 7-yr oscillation yields a butterfly diagram with two domains. In the low-latitude domain (|θ|<= 35°), the dipole wave propagates equatorwards and in the sub-polar region, polewards. The nominal 2-yr oscillation is much more chaotic than the other two modes; however the waves propagate polewards whenever they can be isolated. We conclude that the shape of the solar cycle inferred from the large-scale magnetic field data differs significantly from that inferred from sunspot data. Obviously, the dynamo models for a solar cycle must be generalized to include large-scale magnetic field data. We believe that sunspot data give adequate information concerning the magnetic field configuration deep inside the convection zone (say, in overshoot later), while the large-scale magnetic field is strongly affected by meridional circulation in its upper layer. This interpretation suggests that the poloidal magnetic field is affected by the polewards meridional circulation, whose velocity is comparable with that of the dynamo wave in the overshoot layer. The 7- and 2-yr oscillations could be explained as a contribution of two sub-critical dynamo modes with the corresponding frequencies.

  11. Intense magnetic fields at 1 AU: Solar cycle 20

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burlaga, L. F.; King, J. H.

    1978-01-01

    Of the intense magnetic fields (greater than 13 gamma) observed at 1 AU during solar cycle 20 (1973-1975), 92% were associated with shocks, stream interfaces, or cold magnetic enhancements (CMEs). Most (52%) of the magnetic field intensity enhancements occurred at stream interfaces; 27% occurred behind shocks without interfaces; and 11% occurred in CMEs. The most intense fields (25 gamma to 37 gamma) followed shocks. Magnetic field intensities at interfaces did not exceed 25 gamma, suggesting a mechanism such as a magnetoacoustic wave limits the intensity ahead of streams. Intense magnetic fields persist longest behind shocks.

  12. Possible Estimation of the Solar Cycle Characteristic Parameters by the 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lampropoulos, George; Mavromichalaki, Helen; Tritakis, Vasilis

    2016-03-01

    Two independent methods for estimating basic parameters of the solar cycle are presented. The first of them, the ascending-descending triangle method, is based on a previous work by Tritakis (Astrophys. Space Sci. 82, 463, 1982), which described how the fundamental parameters of a certain solar cycle could be predicted from the shape of the previous one. The relation between the two cycles before and after a specific 11-year solar cycle is tighter than between the two cycles belonging to the same 22-year solar cycle (even-odd cycle). The second is the MinimaxX method, which uses a significant relation in the international sunspot number between the maximum value of a solar cycle and its value 2.5 or 3 years (depending on the enumeration of the even or odd cycle) before the preceding minimum. The tests applied to Cycles 12 to 24 indicate that both methods can estimate the peak of the 11-year solar radio flux at a high confidence level. The data used in this study are the 10.7 cm solar radio flux since 1947, which have been extrapolated back to 1848 from the strong correlation between the monthly international sunspot numbers and the adjusted values of the 10.7 cm radio flux.

  13. Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 - 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 - 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Deland, M. T.; Floyd, L. E.; Burrows, J. P.

    2011-08-01

    Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 - 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data

  14. HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

    SciTech Connect

    Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.; McComas, D. J.; Pogorelov, N. V.

    2013-05-10

    We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF between {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.

  15. Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Michalek, G.; Lepping, R. P.

    2007-01-01

    We present results of a statistical investigation of 99 magnetic clouds (MCs) observed during 1995-2005. The MC-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are faster and wider on the average and originate within +/-30deg from the solar disk center. The solar sources of MCs also followed the butterfly diagram. The correlation between the magnetic field strength and speed of MCs was found to be valid over a much wider range of speeds. The number of south-north (SN) MCs was dominant and decreased with solar cycle, while the number of north-south (NS) MCs increased confirming the odd-cycle behavior. Two-thirds of MCs were geoeffective; the Dst index was highly correlated with speed and magnetic field in MCs as well as their product. Many (55%) fully northward (FN) MCs were geoeffective solely due to their sheaths. The non-geoeffective MCs were slower (average speed approx. 382 km/s), had a weaker southward magnetic field (average approx. -5.2nT), and occurred mostly during the rise phase of the solar activity cycle.

  16. Solar Magnetic Flux as a Function of Disk Position over the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, T.

    2005-05-01

    A novel analysis of a SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetogram time series from March 1996 to November 2004 is presented. Each of the 26,052 magnetograms in the series are segmented into sectors of constant μ = cos θ, each sector having a width of Δμ = 0.05. Within each sector, a histogram of signed magnetic flux density, corrected for the line-of-sight angle θ, is compiled. For each magnetogram we thus obtain a distribution of signed magnetic flux density as a function of μ. Summing the signed flux in each μ bin gives the total signed flux as a function of μ. Plotting these totals for each μ-sector as a function of time over the course of Solar Cycle 22 reveals that cycle minimum and maximum are differentiated only by the magnitude of the flux distributions. In other words, in contrast to analogous plots of flux versus heliocentric latitude, there is no discernible pattern, or "Butterfly Diagram", of flux seen on the solar disk from Earth. The finding is relevant to investigations of total solar irradiance (TSI) since it is known that the primary cause of the ~ 0.1% TSI variation over the solar cycle is the distribution of non-sunspot magnetic flux at smaller μ-values (so-called "faculae").

  17. Satellite Measurements of Middle Atmospheric Impacts by Solar Proton Events in Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackman, C.; Labow, G.; DeLand, M.; Fleming, E.; Sinnhuber, M.; Russell, J.

    2005-01-01

    Solar proton events (SPEs) are known to have caused changes in constituents in the Earth's neutral polar middle atmosphere in the most recent solar maximum period (solar cycle 23). The highly energetic protons produced ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents in the polar cap regions (greater than 60 degrees geomagnetic latitude), which led to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The HOx increases led to short-lived ozone decreases in the polar mesosphere and upper stratosphere due to the short lifetimes of the HOx constituents. Polar middle mesospheric ozone decreases greater than 50% were observed and computed to last for hours to days due to the enhanced HOx. The NOy increases led to long-lived polar stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NOy family in this region. Upper stratospheric ozone decreases of greater than 10% were computed to last for several months past the solar events in the winter polar regions because of the enhanced NOy. Solar cycle 23 was especially replete with SPEs and huge fluxes of high energy protons occurred in July and November 2000, September and November 2001, April 2002, October 2003, and January 2005. Smaller, but still substantial, proton fluxes impacted the Earth during other months in this cycle. Observations by the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments along with GSFC 2D Model predictions will be shown in this talk.

  18. Study of Distribution and Asymmetry of Solar Active Prominences during Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, Navin Chandra; Bankoti, Neeraj Singh; Pande, Seema; Pande, Bimal; Pandey, Kavita

    2009-12-01

    In this article we present the results of a study of the spatial distribution and asymmetry of solar active prominences (SAP) for the period 1996 through 2007 (solar cycle 23). For more meaningful statistical analysis we analyzed the distribution and asymmetry of SAP in two subdivisions viz. Group1 (ADF, APR, DSF, CRN, CAP) and Group2 (AFS, ASR, BSD, BSL, DSD, SPY, LPS). The North - South (N - S) latitudinal distribution shows that the SAP events are most prolific in the 21° to 30° slice in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres; the East - West (E - W) longitudinal distribution study shows that the SAP events are most prolific (best observable) in the 81° to 90° slice in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres. It was found that the SAP activity during this cycle is low compared to previous solar cycles. The present study indicates that during the rising phase of the cycle the number of SAP events are roughly equal in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. However, activity in the Southern Hemisphere has been dominant since 1999. Our statistical study shows that the N - S asymmetry is more significant then the E - W asymmetry.

  19. Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, R. H.; Dasi-Espuig, M.; Jiang, J.; Işık, E.; Schmitt, D.; Schüssler, M.

    2013-09-01

    Context. Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux was present in each hemisphere at the start of the previous cycle and how much net magnetic flux was transported across the equator during the cycle. Some of this transport is associated with the random walk of magnetic flux tubes subject to granular and supergranular buffeting, some of it is due to the advection caused by systematic cross-equatorial flows such as those associated with the inflows into active regions, and some crosses the equator during the emergence process. Aims: We aim to determine how much of the cross-equatorial transport is due to small-scale disorganized motions (treated as diffusion) compared with other processes such as emergence flux across the equator. Methods: We measure the cross-equatorial flux transport using Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms, estimating both the total and diffusive fluxes. Results: Occasionally a large sunspot group, with a large tilt angle emerges crossing the equator, with flux from the two polarities in opposite hemispheres. The largest of these events carry a substantial amount of flux across the equator (compared to the magnetic flux near the poles). We call such events cross-equatorial flux plumes. There are very few such large events during a cycle, which introduces an uncertainty into the determination of the amount of magnetic flux transported across the equator in any particular cycle. As the amount of flux which crosses the equator determines the amount of net flux in each hemisphere, it follows that the cross-equatorial plumes introduce an uncertainty in the prediction of the net flux in each hemisphere. This leads to an uncertainty in predictions of the strength of the following cycle.

  20. High-energy solar particle events in cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Mäkelä, P.; Yashiro, S.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Thakur, N.

    2015-09-01

    The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000 km/s) but they were launched into a tenuous medium (high Alfven speed). In the remaining five events, the speeds were well below the typical GLE CME speed (∼2000 km/s). Furthermore, the CMEs attained their peak speeds beyond the typical heights where GLE particles are released. We conclude that several factors contribute to the low rate of high-energy SEP events in cycle 24: (i) reduced efficiency of shock acceleration (weak heliospheric magnetic field), (ii) poor latitudinal and longitudinal connectivity), and (iii) variation in local ambient conditions (e.g., high Alfven speed).

  1. High-Energy Solar Particle Events in Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Thakur, N.

    2015-01-01

    The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000 km/s) but they were launched into a tenuous medium (high Alfven speed). In the remaining five events, the speeds were well below the typical GLE CME speed (2000 km/s). Furthermore, the CMEs attained their peak speeds beyond the typical heights where GLE particles are released. We conclude that several factors contribute to the low rate of high-energy SEP events in cycle 24: (i) reduced efficiency of shock acceleration (weak heliospheric magnetic field), (ii) poor latitudinal and longitudinal connectivity), and (iii) variation in local ambient conditions (e.g., high Alfven speed).

  2. Structure and sources of solar wind in the growing phase of 24th solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slemzin, Vladimir; Goryaev, Farid; Shugay, Julia; Rodkin, Denis; Veselovsky, Igor

    2015-04-01

    We present analysis of the solar wind (SW) structure and its association with coronal sources during the minimum and rising phase of 24th solar cycle (2009-2011). The coronal sources prominent in this period - coronal holes, small areas of open magnetic fields near active regions and transient sources associated with small-scale solar activity have been investigated using EUV solar images and soft X-ray fluxes obtained by the CORONAS-Photon/TESIS/Sphinx, PROBA2/SWAP, Hinode/EIS and AIA/SDO instruments as well as the magnetograms obtained by HMI/SDO. It was found that at solar minimum (2009) velocity and magnetic field strength of high speed wind (HSW) and transient SW from small-scale flares did not differ significantly from those of the background slow speed wind (SSW). The major difference between parameters of different SW components was seen in the ion composition represented by the C6/C5, O7/O6, Fe/O ratios and the mean charge of Fe ions. With growing solar activity, the speed of HSW increased due to transformation of its sources - small-size low-latitude coronal holes into equatorial extensions of large polar holes. At that period, the ion composition of transient SW changed from low-temperature to high-temperature values, which was caused by variation of the source conditions and change of the recombination/ionization rates during passage of the plasma flow through the low corona. However, we conclude that criteria of separation of the SW components based on the ion ratios established earlier by Zhao&Fisk (2009) for higher solar activity are not applicable to the extremely weak beginning of 24th cycle. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement eHeroes (project n° 284461, www.eheroes.eu).

  3. Ionospheric response to great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merline Matamba, Tshimangadzo; Bosco Habarulema, John

    2016-07-01

    The analyses of ionospheric responses due to great geomagnetic storms i.e. Dst index < 350 nT that occurred during solar cycle 23 are presented. The GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionosonde data over Southern and Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes were used to study the ionospheric responses. A geomagnetic latitude region of ±30° to ±46° within a longitude sector of 15° to 40° was considered. Using a criteria of Dst < -350 nT, there were only four great storm periods (29 March - 02 April 2001, 27 - 31 October 2003, 18 - 23 November 2003 and 06 - 11 November 2004) in solar cycle 23. Analysis has shown that ionospheric dynamics during these disturbed conditions could be due to a number of dynamic and electrodynamics processes in both Hemispheres. In some instances the ionosphere responds differently to the same storm condition in both Hemispheres. Physical mechanisms related to (but not limited to) composition changes and electric fields will be discussed.

  4. SOLAR CYCLE VARIATION OF SOUND SPEED INSIDE THE SUN

    SciTech Connect

    Mullan, D. J.; MacDonald, J.; Rabello-Soares, M. C.

    2012-08-10

    Empirical radial profiles of the changes in sound speed inside the Sun between solar minimum and solar maximum have been extracted from Michelson Doppler Imager data by Baldner and Basu and Rabello-Soares. Here, we compare these results with the theoretical radial profiles predicted by a model of magnetic inhibition of convective onset: In the model, the degree of magnetic inhibition is characterized by a parameter {delta}, which is essentially the ratio of magnetic pressure to gas pressure. We find that the theoretical profiles overlap significantly with the empirical results in the outer half of the convection zone. But differences in the deeper layers indicate that the model needs to be modified there. The main result that emerges in the present comparison is that the value of {delta} must be larger near the surface than at great depth. A secondary result is that, in the course of the solar cycle, the magnetic field magnitude at the base of the convection zone may be out of phase with the field near the surface.

  5. Solar energy demand (SED) of commodity life cycles.

    PubMed

    Rugani, Benedetto; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Mutel, Christopher; Bastianoni, Simone; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2011-06-15

    The solar energy demand (SED) of the extraction of 232 atmospheric, biotic, fossil, land, metal, mineral, nuclear, and water resources was quantified and compared with other energy- and exergy-based indicators. SED represents the direct and indirect solar energy required by a product or service during its life cycle. SED scores were calculated for 3865 processes, as implemented in the Ecoinvent database, version 2.1. The results showed that nonrenewable resources, and in particular minerals, formed the dominant contribution to SED. This large share is due to the indirect solar energy required to produce these resource inputs. Compared with other energy- and exergy-based indicators, SED assigns higher impact factors to minerals and metals and smaller impact factors to fossil energetic resources, land use, and nuclear energy. The highest differences were observed for biobased and renewable energy generation processes, whose relative contribution of renewable resources such as water, biomass, and land occupation was much lower in SED than in energy- and exergy-based indicators. PMID:21545085

  6. Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, R. G.; Wang, J. X.

    At the duration of extreme solar events solar eruption associated with big flares or and energetic coronal mass ejections CMEs can not only make high energy particles acceleration but also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth s environment and human life Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement GLE events in solar cycle 23 we examine the cosmic ray variations solar wind speeds ion densities interplanetary magnetic fields and geomagnetic disturbance storm time indices Dst We find that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with Dst leq -50 nT within 1-5 days later Most 10 14 geomagnetic storms have Dst index leq -100 nT suggesting that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93 for moderate storms and 71 for large storms More than half 57 Dst depressions are simultaneously accompanied by cosmic ray decreases and other Dst variabilities are without clear cosmic ray deceases We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features during GLE events Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B z and in close to 80 of the cases that the B z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement SSC Plasma flow speed ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms are discussed

  7. Unusual Polar Conditions in Solar Cycle 24 and Their Implications for Cycle 25

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji; Akiyama, Sachiko

    2016-05-01

    We report on the prolonged solar-maximum conditions until late 2015 at the north-polar region of the Sun indicated by the occurrence of high-latitude prominence eruptions (PEs) and microwave brightness temperature close to the quiet-Sun level. These two aspects of solar activity indicate that the polarity reversal was completed by mid-2014 in the south and late 2015 in the north. The microwave brightness in the south-polar region has increased to a level exceeding the level of the Cycle 23/24 minimum, but just started to increase in the north. The north–south asymmetry in the polarity reversal has switched from that in Cycle 23. These observations lead us to the hypothesis that the onset of Cycle 25 in the northern hemisphere is likely to be delayed with respect to that in the southern hemisphere. We find that the unusual condition in the north is a direct consequence of the arrival of poleward surges of opposite polarity from the active region belt. We also find that multiple rush-to-the-pole episodes were indicated by the PE locations that lined up at the boundary between opposite-polarity surges. The high-latitude PEs occurred in the boundary between the incumbent polar flux and the insurgent flux of opposite polarity.

  8. Evolution of global distribution of the solar wind from cycle 23 to the early phase of cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokumaru, Munetoshi; Fujiki, Ken'ichi; Kojima, Masayoshi

    2013-06-01

    Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations made with the 327-MHz multi-station system of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STEL) of Nagoya University are used to investigate long-term evolution of the global solar wind structure. Here, we focus on the recent trend in our data (up to 2011), since peculiar aspects of the cycle 24 have been reported from earlier studies. The IPS data demonstrate that the solar wind systematically changes its global structure with the solar activity cycle, and also that there is some distinct differences in the solar wind structure between the current and past cycles. The fractional area of the fast wind on the source surface significantly increases at low latitudes in the extended minimum between cycle 23 and 24, as compared with that between cycle 22 and 23. This fact is consistent with a marked growth of equatorial coronal holes during the cycle 24. A comparison with magnetograph data of Wilcox Solar Observatory reveals that polar fields have a positive (negative) correlation with fast (slow) wind areas. We find that the solar wind structure in the cycle 24 changes with polar fields following a slightly different track from that of the past cycle. This discrepancy is ascribed to an effect of higher-order moments of the Sun's magnetic field. Another important point revealed from our IPS observations is that solar wind density fluctuations distinctly drop after the extended minimum. This is consistent with a significant reduction in solar wind density observed by in situ measurements during the extended minimum, while our IPS data show that this reduction continues until 2011.

  9. The response of ozone to solar proton events during solar cycle 21 - The observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcpeters, R. D.; Jackman, C. H.

    1985-01-01

    It is pointed out that during a solar proton event (SPE), large numbers of high-energy protons penetrate the earth's mesosphere and upper stratosphere and perturb the normal chemistry by ionizing molecules and changing the balance of odd nitrogen, oxygen, and hydrogen. Changes in ozone caused by an SPE are produced very rapidly, typically in a matter of hours, and are confined to a limited geographic area, the region above 60 deg geomagnetic latitude. In this paper, an analysis is reported of the response of ozone to the significant SPE's in solar cycle 21 from the Nimbus 7 launch in October 1978 to date, using data from the solar backscattered ultraviolet instrument (SBUV). Ozone data during 15 SPE's were examined. It was found that ozone depletion occurred during SPE's on at least five dates.

  10. North-south asymmetry of different solar activity features during solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bankoti, Neeraj Singh; Joshi, Navin Chandra; Pande, Seema; Pande, Bimal; Pandey, Kavita

    2010-08-01

    A study on north-south (N-S) asymmetry of different solar activity features (DSAF) such as solar proton events, solar active prominences [total, low (⩽40°) and high (⩾50°) latitudes], H α flare indices, soft X-ray flares, monthly mean sunspot areas and monthly mean sunspot numbers carried out from May 1996 to October 2008. Study shows a southern dominance of DSAF during this period. During the rising phase of the cycle 23 the number of DSAF approximately equals on both, the northern and the southern hemispheres. But these activities tend to shift from northern to southern hemisphere during the period 1998-1999. The statistical significance of the asymmetry time series using a χ2-test of goodness of fit indicates that in most of the cases the asymmetry is highly significant, meaning thereby that the asymmetry is a real feature in the N-S distribution of DSAF.

  11. Analysis of Low Temperature Organic Rankine Cycles for Solar Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yunfei

    The present work focuses on Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems and their application to low temperature waste heat recovery, combined heat and power as well as off-grid solar power generation applications. As CO_2 issues come to the fore front and fossil fuels become more expensive, interest in low grade heat recovery has grown dramatically in the past few years. Solar energy, as a clean, renewable, pollution-free and sustainable energy has great potential for the use of ORC systems. Several ORC solutions have been proposed to generate electricity from low temperature sources. The ORC systems discussed here can be applied to fields such as solar thermal, biological waste heat, engine exhaust gases, small-scale cogeneration, domestic boilers, etc. The current work presents a thermodynamic and economic analysis for the use of ORC systems to convert solar energy or low exergy energy to generate electrical power. The organic working fluids investigated here were selected to investigate the effect of the fluid saturation temperature on the performance of ORCs. The working fluids under investigation are R113, R245fa, R123, with boiling points between 40°C and 200°C at pressures from 10 kPa to 10 MPa. Ambient temperature air at 20oC to 30oC is utilized as cooling resource, and allowing for a temperature difference 10°C for effective heat transfer. Consequently, the working fluids are condensed at 40°C. A combined first- and second-law analysis is performed by varying some system independent parameters at various reference temperatures. The present work shows that ORC systems can be viable and economical for the applications such as waste heat use and off-grid power generation even though they are likely to be more expensive than grid power.

  12. Solar Wind Plasma Flows and Space Weather Aspects Recent Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaushik, Sonia; Kaushik, Subhash Chandra

    2016-07-01

    Solar transients are responsible for initiating short - term and long - term variations in earth's magnetosphere. These variations are termed as geomagnetic disturbances, and driven by the interaction of solar wind features with the geo-magnetosphere. The strength of this modulation process depends upon the magnitude and orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and solar wind parameters. These interplanetary transients are large scale structures containing plasma and magnetic field expelled from the transient active regions of solar atmosphere. As they come to interplanetary medium the interplanetary magnetic field drape around them. This field line draping was thought as possible cause of the characteristic eastward deflection and giving rise to geomagnetic activities as well as a prime factor in producing the modulation effects in the near Earth environment. The Solar cycle 23 has exhibited the unique extended minima and peculiar effects in the geomagnetosphere. Selecting such transients, occurred during this interval, an attempt has been made to determine quantitative relationships of these transients with solar/ interplanetary and Geophysical Parameters. In this work we used hourly values of IMF data obtained from the NSSD Center. The analysis mainly based on looking into the effects of these transients on earth's magnetic field. The high-resolution data IMF Bz and solar wind data obtained from WDC-A, through its omniweb, available during the selected period. Dst and Ap obtained from WDC-Kyoto are taken as indicator of geomagnetic activities. It is found that Dst index, solar wind velocity, proton temperature and the Bz component of magnetic field have higher values and increase just before the occurrence of these events. Larger and varying magnetic field mainly responsible for producing the short-term changes in geomagnetic intensity are observed during these events associated with coronal holes.

  13. Understanding Solar Cycle Ultraviolet Variations from SME and Subsequent Satellite Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) measured the solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance from 1981 to 1989, and those observations are the foundation for a series of solar UV measurements continued through today. The solar UV radiation between 115 nm and 300 nm is a critical energy input for studying Earth's atmosphere, such as for ozone photochemistry, thus understanding the solar UV variations was an important part of the SME mission and continues to be important for Earth science studies today. After SME, there were additional solar UV irradiance measurements from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) spacecraft, and the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE). These four sets of observations that span 1981 to the present day enable the evaluation of the solar UV variations over multiple solar cycles. While solar rotation 27-day variability is very similar from the different instruments, there are some differences in the solar cycle 11-year variations, partly due to observations made during different solar cycles and perhaps also due to uncorrected instrumental effects. The composite time series of the SME and other irradiance measurements provide an important climate record of the solar UV irradiance, for understanding solar cycle variations, and for studying solar forcing in Earth's atmosphere.

  14. Solar Activity in the Green Corona Over Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rušin, V.

    2006-12-01

    The intensity of the green coronal line (5303Å, Fe {\\sc xiv), which is directly proportional to the electron density as well as the temperature of the corona, is a good and sensitive indicator of the reflection of the photospheric activity in the emission corona, mapping also the evolution of the magnetic fields in the active regions on the solar surface. In cycle 23 (1996 -2007), the average intensity of the green corona was of about 30% less when compared with that of the preceding cycle; this, however, does not necessarily imply a lower temperature of the corona, but rather a smaller number of active regions and/or smaller strength of local magnetic fields in the latter. The maximum of the intensity of the green corona was observed in August 2001, preceding for about one and a half year that of sunspot number. Moreover, the increased intensities were not observed continuously in time and heliographic latitude, but rather in particular latitudes, with a slight time-lag between the north and south hemispheres. It is well known that a time-latitudinal distribution of the intensity of the green corona features two kinds of large-scale motions. The first is the so-called polar branch, which separates from the "main flow" in the middle latitudes in the cycle minimum, lasts for about 3 -4 years and disappears at the time of the maxima of solar activity near the poles. The other is the equatorial (or principal) branch, which after separation in middle-latitudes moves first towards the poles, then roughly 2 years after the polar branch reached the poles makes a U-turn at upper heliographic latitudes of ±70 degrees, and migrates towards the equator where it disappears in the next minimum; the life-time of this branch is about 18 years. Given the time of the splitting of the two branches, we can guess the time of the maximum and minimum of the forthcoming cycle - cycle 24: the corresponding numbers are 2011 and 2012.5 for the time of the "double" maximum and 2019 for

  15. Examination of the Last Large Solar Energetic Particle Events of Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, C. M. S.; Mason, G. M.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Labrador, A. W.; Leske, R. A.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.

    2008-08-01

    The last two large solar energetic particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 23 were observed in December 2006 by several spacecraft including ACE and STEREO. Active region number 10930 rotated over the eastern limb of the Sun already generating intense x-ray flares. As it crossed the disk, it produced 4 X-class flares and at least 3 halo coronal mass ejections. The two dominant SEP events occurred when the region was at ~E 70 and ~W 25. We have combined particle observations from the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) and the Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ULEIS) on ACE and the Low Energy Telescope (LET) on STEREO for each event. Energy spectra for many heavy ion species integrated over the duration of each SEP event show distinct differences between the two events. We find the second event (on December 13) has a much harder spectrum above 10 MeV/nucleon and a 12-60 MeV/nucleon composition substantially enriched in elements with Z>14 as compared to the first event (on December 6). While the December 6 event is similar in Fe/O to other events with comparable fluence in solar cycle 23, the December 13 event has the highest Fe/O ratio of all events with Si fluence >100(cm2 sr MeV/n)-1. In composition, this second event is most similar to the event of November 6, 1997.

  16. Fast and robust segmentation of solar EUV images: algorithm and results for solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barra, V.; Delouille, V.; Kretzschmar, M.; Hochedez, J.-F.

    2009-10-01

    Context: The study of the variability of the solar corona and the monitoring of coronal holes, quiet sun and active regions are of great importance in astrophysics as well as for space weather and space climate applications. Aims: In a previous work, we presented the spatial possibilistic clustering algorithm (SPoCA). This is a multi-channel unsupervised spatially-constrained fuzzy clustering method that automatically segments solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images into regions of interest. The results we reported on SoHO-EIT images taken from February 1997 to May 2005 were consistent with previous knowledge in terms of both areas and intensity estimations. However, they presented some artifacts due to the method itself. Methods: Herein, we propose a new algorithm, based on SPoCA, that removes these artifacts. We focus on two points: the definition of an optimal clustering with respect to the regions of interest, and the accurate definition of the cluster edges. We moreover propose methodological extensions to this method, and we illustrate these extensions with the automatic tracking of active regions. Results: The much improved algorithm can decompose the whole set of EIT solar images over the 23rd solar cycle into regions that can clearly be identified as quiet sun, coronal hole and active region. The variations of the parameters resulting from the segmentation, i.e. the area, mean intensity, and relative contribution to the solar irradiance, are consistent with previous results and thus validate the decomposition. Furthermore, we find indications for a small variation of the mean intensity of each region in correlation with the solar cycle. Conclusions: The method is generic enough to allow the introduction of other channels or data. New applications are now expected, e.g. related to SDO-AIA data.

  17. Thermal stress cycling of GaAs solar cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Janousek, B. K.; Francis, R. W.; Wendt, J. P.

    1985-01-01

    A thermal cycling experiment was performed on GaAs solar cells to establish the electrical and structural integrity of these cells under the temperature conditions of a simulated low-Earth orbit of 3-year duration. Thirty single junction GaAs cells were obtained and tests were performed to establish the beginning-of-life characteristics of these cells. The tests consisted of cell I-V power output curves, from which were obtained short-circuit current, open circuit voltage, fill factor, and cell efficiency, and optical micrographs, spectral response, and ion microprobe mass analysis (IMMA) depth profiles on both the front surfaces and the front metallic contacts of the cells. Following 5,000 thermal cycles, the performance of the cells was reexamined in addition to any factors which might contribute to performance degradation. It is established that, after 5,000 thermal cycles, the cells retain their power output with no loss of structural integrity or change in physical appearance.

  18. Variability of the solar shape (before space dedicated missions)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozelot, J. P.; Damiani, C.; Lefebvre, S.

    2009-12-01

    Shrinking or expansion of the solar shape and irradiance variations are ultimately related to solar activity. We give here a review on existing ground-based or space solar radius measurements, extending the concept to shape changes. We show how helioseismology results allow us to look at the variations below the surface, where changes are not uniform, putting in evidence a new shallow layer, the leptocline, which is the seat of solar asphericities, radius variations with the 11-yr cycle and the cradle of complex physical processes: partial ionization of the light elements, opacities changes, superadiabaticity, strong gradient of rotation and pressure. Based on such physical grounds, we show why it is important to get accurate measurements from scheduled dedicated space missions: PICARD, SDO, DynaMICCS, ASTROMETRIA, SPHERIS. Such measurements will provide us a unique opportunity to study in detail the relationship between global solar properties and changes in the Sun's interior.

  19. Ground-based measurements of the solar diameter during the rising phase of solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meftah, M.; Corbard, T.; Irbah, A.; Ikhlef, R.; Morand, F.; Renaud, C.; Hauchecorne, A.; Assus, P.; Borgnino, J.; Chauvineau, B.; Crepel, M.; Dalaudier, F.; Damé, L.; Djafer, D.; Fodil, M.; Lesueur, P.; Poiet, G.; Rouzé, M.; Sarkissian, A.; Ziad, A.; Laclare, F.

    2014-09-01

    Context. For the past thirty years, modern ground-based time-series of the solar radius have shown different apparent variations according to different instruments. The origins of these variations may result from the observer, the instrument, the atmosphere, or the Sun. Solar radius measurements have been made for a very long time and in different ways. Yet we see inconsistencies in the measurements. Numerous studies of solar radius variation appear in the literature, but with conflicting results. These measurement differences are certainly related to instrumental effects or atmospheric effects. Use of different methods (determination of the solar radius), instruments, and effects of Earth's atmosphere could explain the lack of consistency on the past measurements. A survey of the solar radius has been initiated in 1975 by Francis Laclare, at the Calern site of the Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur (OCA). Several efforts are currently made from space missions to obtain accurate solar astrometric measurements, for example, to probe the long-term variations of solar radius, their link with solar irradiance variations, and their influence on the Earth climate. Aims: The Picard program includes a ground-based observatory consisting of different instruments based at the Calern site (OCA, France). This set of instruments has been named "Picard Sol" and consists of a Ritchey-Chrétien telescope providing full-disk images of the Sun in five narrow-wavelength bandpasses (centered on 393.37, 535.7, 607.1, 782.2, and 1025.0 nm), a Sun-photometer that measures the properties of atmospheric aerosol, a pyranometer for estimating a global sky-quality index, a wide-field camera that detects the location of clouds, and a generalized daytime seeing monitor allowing us to measure the spatio-temporal parameters of the local turbulence. Picard Sol is meant to perpetuate valuable historical series of the solar radius and to initiate new time-series, in particular during solar cycle 24

  20. Characteristics of the solar flares and their spatial distribution in cycle 22 and the first half of cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akhtemov, Z. S.

    2014-06-01

    This paper considers 3246 solar flares in the line Hα, which were accompanied by X-ray emission with a power f ≥ 5 × 10-6 Wm-2 in the solar cycle 22 (CR1797-CR1864). During 33 rotations, the specific power of X-ray emission of the flares increased monotonically by a factor of 4 from the cycle minimum up to its first maximum. The number of flares in each solar turnover rises non-monotonically and disproportionately to the relative number of sunspots. For the entire interval of time, one can identify several longitudinal intervals with increased flare activity. They exist during 5-10 rotations. The characteristics of the flares for 33 rotations in cycles 22 and 23 (CR1797-CR1961) are compared. It is concluded that the Sun is more active in cycle 22 than in cycle 23.

  1. Source of a Prominent Poleward Surge During Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeates, A. R.; Baker, D.; van Driel-Gesztelyi, L.

    2015-11-01

    As an observational case study, we consider the origin of a prominent poleward surge of leading polarity, visible in the magnetic butterfly diagram during Solar Cycle 24. A new technique is developed for assimilating individual regions of strong magnetic flux into a surface-flux transport model. By isolating the contribution of each of these regions, the model shows the surge to originate primarily in a single high-latitude activity group consisting of a bipolar active region present in Carrington Rotations 2104 - 05 (November 2010 - January 2011) and a multipolar active region in Rotations 2107 - 08 (February - April 2011). This group had a strong axial dipole moment opposed to Joy's law. On the other hand, the modelling suggests that the transient influence of this group on the butterfly diagram will not be matched by a large long-term contribution to the polar field because it is located at high latitude. This is in accordance with previous flux-transport models.

  2. A New Challenge to Solar Dynamo Models from Helioseismic Observations: The Latitudinal Dependence of the Progression of the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simoniello, R.; Tripathy, S. C.; Jain, K.; Hill, F.

    2016-09-01

    The onset of the solar cycle at mid-latitudes, the slowdown in the drift of sunspots toward the equator, the tail-like attachment, and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of minimum activity are delicate issues in models of the αΩ dynamo wave and the flux transport dynamo. Very different parameter values produce similar results, making it difficult to understand the origin of the properties of these solar cycles. We use helioseismic data from the Global Oscillation Network Group to investigate the progression of the solar cycle as observed in intermediate-degree global p-mode frequency shifts at different latitudes and subsurface layers, from the beginning of solar cycle 23 up to the maximum of the current solar cycle. We also analyze those for high-degree modes in each hemisphere obtained through the ring-diagram technique of local helioseismology. The analysis highlights differences in the progression of the cycle below 15° compared to higher latitudes. While the cycle starts at mid-latitudes and then migrates equatorward/poleward, the sunspot eruptions of the old cycle are still ongoing below 15° latitude. This prolonged activity causes a delay in the onset of the cycle and an overlap of successive cycles, whose extent differs in the two hemispheres. Then the activity level rises faster, reaching a maximum characterized by a single-peak structure as opposed to the double peak at higher latitudes. Afterwards the descending phase shows up with a slower decay rate. The latitudinal properties of the progression of the solar cycle highlighted in this study provide useful constraints for discerning among the multitude of solar dynamo models.

  3. Solar Activity in Cycle 24 - What do Acoustic Oscillations tell us?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, Kiran; Tripathy, Sushant; Simoniello, Rosaria; Hill, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest cycle in modern era of space- and ground-based observations. The number of sunspots visible on solar disk and other measures of magnetic activity have significantly decreased from the last cycle. It was also preceeded by an extended phase of low activity, a period that raised questions on our understanding of the solar activity cycle and its origin. This unusual behavior was not only limited to the visible features in Sun's atmosphere, the helioseismic observations also revealed peculiar behavior in the interior. It was suggested that the changes in magnetic activity were confined to shallower layers only, as a result low-degree mode frequencies were found to be anti-correlated with solar activity. Here we present results on the progression of Cycle 24 by analyzing the uninterrupted helioseismic data from GONG and SDO/HMI, and discuss differences and similarity between cycles 23 and 24 in relation to the solar activity.

  4. Properties of Magnetic Tongues over a Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poisson, Mariano; Démoulin, Pascal; López Fuentes, Marcelo; Mandrini, Cristina H.

    2016-08-01

    The photospheric spatial distribution of the main magnetic polarities of bipolar active regions (ARs) present during their emergence deformations are known as magnetic tongues. They are attributed to the presence of twist in the toroidal magnetic-flux tubes that form the ARs. The aim of this article is to study the twist of newly emerged ARs from the evolution of magnetic tongues observed in photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms. We apply the procedure described by Poisson et al. ( Solar Phys. 290, 727, 2015a) to ARs observed over the full Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24. Our results show that the hemispherical rule obtained using the tongues as a proxy of the twist has a weak sign dominance (53 % in the southern hemisphere and 58 % in the northern hemisphere). By defining the variation of the tongue angle, we characterize the strength of the magnetic tongues during different phases of the AR emergence. We find that there is a tendency of the tongues to be stronger during the beginning of the emergence and to become weaker as the AR reaches its maximum magnetic flux. We compare this evolution with the emergence of a toroidal flux-rope model with non-uniform twist. The variety of evolution of the tongues in the analyzed ARs can only be reproduced when using a broad range of twist profiles, in particular having a large variety of twist gradients in the direction vertical to the photosphere. Although the analytical model used is a special case, selected to minimize the complexity of the problem, the results obtained set new observational constraints to theoretical models of flux-rope emergence that form bipolar ARs.

  5. Properties of Magnetic Tongues over a Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poisson, Mariano; Démoulin, Pascal; López Fuentes, Marcelo; Mandrini, Cristina H.

    2016-07-01

    The photospheric spatial distribution of the main magnetic polarities of bipolar active regions (ARs) present during their emergence deformations are known as magnetic tongues. They are attributed to the presence of twist in the toroidal magnetic-flux tubes that form the ARs. The aim of this article is to study the twist of newly emerged ARs from the evolution of magnetic tongues observed in photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms. We apply the procedure described by Poisson et al. (Solar Phys. 290, 727, 2015a) to ARs observed over the full Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24. Our results show that the hemispherical rule obtained using the tongues as a proxy of the twist has a weak sign dominance (53 % in the southern hemisphere and 58 % in the northern hemisphere). By defining the variation of the tongue angle, we characterize the strength of the magnetic tongues during different phases of the AR emergence. We find that there is a tendency of the tongues to be stronger during the beginning of the emergence and to become weaker as the AR reaches its maximum magnetic flux. We compare this evolution with the emergence of a toroidal flux-rope model with non-uniform twist. The variety of evolution of the tongues in the analyzed ARs can only be reproduced when using a broad range of twist profiles, in particular having a large variety of twist gradients in the direction vertical to the photosphere. Although the analytical model used is a special case, selected to minimize the complexity of the problem, the results obtained set new observational constraints to theoretical models of flux-rope emergence that form bipolar ARs.

  6. Solar wind interaction with the Martian upper atmosphere: Crustal field orientation, solar cycle, and seasonal variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Chuanfei; Bougher, Stephen W.; Ma, Yingjuan; Toth, Gabor; Lee, Yuni; Nagy, Andrew F.; Tenishev, Valeriy; Pawlowski, Dave J.; Combi, Michael R.; Najib, Dalal

    2015-09-01

    A comprehensive study of the solar wind interaction with the Martian upper atmosphere is presented. Three global models: the 3-D Mars multifluid Block Adaptive Tree Solar-wind Roe Upwind Scheme MHD code (MF-MHD), the 3-D Mars Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (M-GITM), and the Mars exosphere Monte Carlo model Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (M-AMPS) were used in this study. These models are one-way coupled; i.e., the MF-MHD model uses the 3-D neutral inputs from M-GITM and the 3-D hot oxygen corona distribution from M-AMPS. By adopting this one-way coupling approach, the Martian upper atmosphere ion escape rates are investigated in detail with the combined variations of crustal field orientation, solar cycle, and Martian seasonal conditions. The calculated ion escape rates are compared with Mars Express observational data and show reasonable agreement. The variations in solar cycles and seasons can affect the ion loss by a factor of ˜3.3 and ˜1.3, respectively. The crustal magnetic field has a shielding effect to protect Mars from solar wind interaction, and this effect is the strongest for perihelion conditions, with the crustal field facing the Sun. Furthermore, the fraction of cold escaping heavy ionospheric molecular ions [(O2+ and/or O2+)/Total] are inversely proportional to the fraction of the escaping (ionospheric and corona) atomic ion [O+/Total], whereas O2+ and O2+ ion escape fractions show a positive linear correlation since both ion species are ionospheric ions that follow the same escaping path.

  7. Peaks of solar cycles affect the gender ratio.

    PubMed

    Davis, George E; Lowell, Walter E

    2008-12-01

    In this study, we report that the gender ratio (GR) at death [where GR=(N(males)/N(males)+N(females))] of those born (and likely conceived) in solar cycle peaks (about a 3-year period occurring on average every approximately 11 years), is inversely related to mean male age at death; e.g., the higher the GR(at death) the lower the mean lifespan, while the GR(at death) of those born in non-peak years has no relation to mean male lifespan. Although changes in the GR are small and may be of little clinical significance, the GR is a sensitive indicator of environmental effects, and therefore is pertinent to epigenetics. This paper supports the hypothesis that solar radiation, probably in the ultraviolet spectrum, by some manner interacts with chromosomal DNA (genes) and produces the genetic variety that not only fosters adaptation, but also produces the diseases that reduce lifespan. This paper also proposes that sunlight is more effective in modifying genomes at the time of conception than later in gestation or infancy. Referring to the work of others, this study also reveals that geographic latitude also affects the GR, suggesting that the variation in light is probably as important as the intensity of light in modifying genomes. This study finds that men sustain more genetic variation, producing 28% more disease than women, as well as a 2% decrease in GR from birth to death, and a shorter life (in Maine) by 7 years. PMID:18755551

  8. Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar

  9. SOLAR CYCLE VARIATIONS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF CORONAL TYPE III RADIO BURSTS AND A NEW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDEX

    SciTech Connect

    Lobzin, Vasili; Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, Peter A.

    2011-07-20

    This Letter presents the results of studies of solar cycle variations of the occurrence rate of coronal type III radio bursts. The radio spectra are provided by the Learmonth Solar Radio Observatory (Western Australia), part of the USAF Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN). It is found that the occurrence rate of type III bursts strongly correlates with solar activity. However, the profiles for the smoothed type III burst occurrence rate differ considerably from those for the sunspot number, 10.7 cm solar radio flux, and solar flare index. The type III burst occurrence rate (T3BOR) is proposed as a new index of solar activity. T3BOR provides complementary information about solar activity and should be useful in different studies including solar cycle predictions and searches for different periodicities in solar activity. This index can be estimated from daily results of the Automated Radio Burst Identification System. Access to data from other RSTN sites will allow processing 24 hr radio spectra in near-real time and estimating true daily values of this index. It is also shown that coronal type III bursts can even occur when there are no visible sunspots on the Sun. However, no evidence is found that the bursts are not associated with active regions. It is also concluded that the type III burst productivity of active regions exhibits solar cycle variations.

  10. Temporal variation of hemispheric solar rotation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Jing-Lan; Shi, Xiang-Jun; Xu, Jing-Chen

    2012-02-01

    The daily sunspot numbers of the whole disk as well as the northern and southern hemispheres from 1945 January 1 to 2010 December 31 are used to investigate the temporal variation of rotational cycle length through the continuous wavelet transformation analysis method. Auto-correlation function analysis of daily hemispheric sunspot numbers shows that the southern hemisphere rotates faster than the northern hemisphere. The results obtained from the wavelet transformation analysis are that no direct relationship exists between the variation trend of the rotational cycle length and the solar activity in the two hemispheres and that the rotational cycle length of both hemispheres has no significant period appearing at 11yr, but has a significant period of about 7.6 yr. Analysis concerning the solar cycle dependence of the rotational cycle length shows that acceleration seems to appear before the minimum time of solar activity in the whole disk and the northern hemisphere, respectively. Furthermore, the cross-correlation study indicates that the rotational cycle length of the two hemispheres has different phases, and that the rotational cycle length of the whole disk as well as the northern and southern hemispheres, also has phase shifts with corresponding solar activity. In addition, the temporal variation of the north-south (N-S) asymmetry of the rotational cycle length is also studied. This displays the same variation trend as the N-S asymmetry of solar activity in a solar cycle, as well as in the considered time interval, and has two significant periods of 7.7 and 17.5 yr. Moreover, the rotational cycle length and the N-S asymmetry of solar activity are highly correlated. It is inferred that the northern hemisphere should rotate faster at the beginning of solar cycle 24.

  11. Coronal holes and solar wind streams during the sunspot cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sheeley, N. R., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Complementary synoptic observations of the Sun and interplanetary space have been obtained nearly continuously for more than two sunspot cycles and have led to new ideas about the origin of the solar wind. These observations show an inverse correlation between wind speed at Earth and magnetic flux tube expansion in the corona, with fast wind originating from slowly diverging tubes and vice versa. Although this result is consistent with the Skylab-era concept that fast wind originates from the center of a large isolated coronal hole, it implies that the wind may be even faster at the facing edges of like-polarity holes where the flux-tubes converge as they begin their outward extension. Thus, very fast wind ought to originate from the high-latitude edges of the circumpolar holes soon after sunspot maximum and from the mid-latitude necks of the polar-hole lobes during the declining phase of the cycle. The observed inverse correlation may be understood physically in terms of a model in which Alfven waves boost the wind to high speed provided that the wave energy flux is distributed approximately uniformly at the coronal base.

  12. Cycle Evaluations of Reversible Chemical Reactions for Solar Thermochemical Energy Storage in Support of Concentrating Solar Power Generation Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Krishnan, Shankar; Palo, Daniel R.; Wegeng, Robert S.

    2010-07-25

    The production and storage of thermochemical energy is a possible route to increase capacity factors and reduce the Levelized Cost of Electricity from concentrated solar power generation systems. In this paper, we present the results of cycle evaluations for various thermochemical cycles, including a well-documented ammonia closed-cycle along with open- and closed-cycle versions of hydrocarbon chemical reactions. Among the available reversible hydrocarbon chemical reactions, catalytic reforming-methanation cycles are considered; specifically, various methane-steam reforming cycles are compared to the ammonia cycle. In some cases, the production of an intermediate chemical, methanol, is also included with some benefit being realized. The best case, based on overall power generation efficiency and overall plant capacity factor, was found to be an open cycle including methane-steam reforming, using concentrated solar energy to increase the chemical energy content of the reacting stream, followed by combustion to generate heat for the heat engine.

  13. A STATISTICAL STUDY OF SOLAR ELECTRON EVENTS OVER ONE SOLAR CYCLE

    SciTech Connect

    Wang Linghua; Lin, R. P.; Krucker, Saem; Mason, Glenn M.

    2012-11-01

    We survey the statistical properties of 1191 solar electron events observed by the WIND 3DP instrument from <1 keV to {approx}>300 keV for a solar cycle (1995 through 2005). After taking into account times of high background, the corrected occurrence frequency of solar electron events versus peak flux exhibits a power-law distribution over three orders of magnitude with exponents between -1.0 and -1.6 for different years, comparable to the frequency distribution of solar proton events, microflares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but significantly flatter than that of soft X-ray (SXR) flares. At 40 keV (2.8 keV), the integrated occurrence rate above {approx}0.29 ({approx}330) cm{sup -2} s{sup -1} sr{sup -1} keV{sup -1} near 1 AU is {approx}1000 year{sup -1} ({approx}600 year{sup -1}) at solar maximum and {approx}35 year{sup -1} ({approx}25 year{sup -1}) at solar minimum, about an order of magnitude larger than the observed occurrence rate. We find these events typically extend over {approx}45 Degree-Sign in longitude, implying the occurrence rate over the whole Sun is {approx}10{sup 4} year{sup -1} near solar maximum. The observed solar electron events have a 98.75% association with type III radio bursts, suggesting all type III bursts may be associated with a solar electron event. They have a close ({approx}76%) association with the presence of low-energy ({approx}0.02-2 MeV nucleon{sup -1}), {sup 3}He-rich ({sup 3}He/{sup 4}He {>=} 0.01) ion emissions measured by the ACE ULEIS instrument. For these electron events, only {approx}35% are associated with a reported GOES SXR flare, but {approx}60% appear to be associated with a CME, with {approx}50% of these CMEs being narrow. These electrons are often detected down to below 1 keV, indicating a source high in the corona.

  14. Reading The Sun: A Three Dimensional Visual Model of The Solar Environment During Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carranza-fulmer, T. L.; Moldwin, M.

    2014-12-01

    The sun is a powerful force that has proven to our society that it has a large impact on our lives. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of awareness on how the sun is capable of affecting Earth. The over all idea of "Reading The Sun" installation is to help demonstrate how the sun impacts the Earth, by compiling various data sources from satellites (SOHO, SDO, and STERO) with solar and solar wind models (MAS and ENLIL) to create a comprehensive three dimensional display of the solar environment. It focuses on the current solar maximum of solar cycle 24 and a CME that impacted Earth's magnetic field on February 27, 2014, which triggered geomagnetic storms around the Earth's poles. The CME was an after-effect of a class X4.9 solar flare, which was released from the sun on February 25, 2014. "Reading The Sun" is a 48" x 48" x 48" hanging model of the sun with color coded open opposing magnetic field lines along with various layers of the solar atmosphere, the heliospheric current sheet, and the inner planets. At the center of the xyz axis is the sun with the open magnetic field lines and the heliospheric current sheet permeating inner planetary space. The xyz axes are color coded to represent various types of information with corresponding visual images for the viewer to be able to read the model. Along the z-axis are three colors (yellow, orange, and green) that represent the different layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona) that correspond to three satellite images in various spectrums related to a CME and Solar Flare and the xy-plane shows where the inner planets are in relation to the sun. The exhibit in which "Reading The Sun "is being displayed is called, The Rotation of Language at the Wheather Again Gallery in Rockaway, New York. The intent of the exhibit is to both celebrate as well as present a cautionary tale on the ability of human language to spark and ignite the individual and collective imagination towards an experience

  15. Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, Ian G.; Cane, Hilary V.

    2012-01-01

    In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

  16. Evidence of scale height variations in the Martian ionosphere over the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez-Cano, B.; Lester, M.; Witasse, O.; Milan, S. E.; Hall, B. E. S.; Blelly, P.-L.; Radicella, S. M.; Morgan, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    Solar cycle variations in solar radiation create density changes in any planetary ionosphere, which are well established in the Earth's case. At Mars, however, the ionospheric response to such changes is not well understood. We show the solar cycle impact on the topside ionosphere of Mars, using data from the Mars Advance Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board Mars Express. Topside ionospheric variability during the solar cycle is analyzed through neutral scale height behavior. For moderate and high solar activity phases, the topside electron density profile is reproduced with an altitude-variable scale height. However, for the period of extremely low solar activity in 2008 and 2009, the topside was smaller in density than in the other phases of the solar cycle, and there is evidence that it could be reproduced with either a constant scale height or a height-variable scale height with lower electron density. Moreover, the ionosphere during this time did not show any apparent dependence on the EUV flux. This singular behavior during low solar activity may respond to the presence of an induced magnetic field which can penetrate to lower ionospheric altitudes than in other phases of the solar cycle due to the reduced thermal pressure. Numerical simulations of possible scenarios for two different solar cycle phases indicate that this hypothesis is consistent with the observations.

  17. Solar Source and CME Properties of Solar Cycle 23 Ground Level Enhancement Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Xie, H.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Makela, P.; Usoskin, I.

    2010-01-01

    Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. GLE events are extreme cases of solar energetic particle (SEP) events in that the energetic particles penetrate Earth's neutral atmosphere to be detected by neutron monitors. In this paper we present the CME and their source properties that seem to be equally extreme. These observations are consistent with the idea that the GLE particles are accelerated in the same way as the regular SEP events by CME-driven shocks. While we cannot rule out the possibility of the presence of a flare component during GLE events, we can definitely say that a shock component is present in all the GLE events. We provide additional information on the GLE-associated type II radio bursts, complex type III radio bursts, and soft X-ray flares, which are not very different from those associated with large SEP events. Finally we compare the properties of GLEassociated CMEs in cycle 23 with those in cycle 22.

  18. A study of density modulation index in the inner heliospheric solar wind during solar cycle 23

    SciTech Connect

    Bisoi, Susanta Kumar; Janardhan, P.; Ingale, M.; Subramanian, P.; Ananthakrishnan, S.; Tokumaru, M.; Fujiki, K. E-mail: jerry@prl.res.in E-mail: p.subramanian@iiserpune.ac.in E-mail: tokumaru@stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp

    2014-11-01

    The ratio of the rms electron density fluctuations to the background density in the solar wind (density modulation index, ε {sub N} ≡ ΔN/N) is of vital importance for understanding several problems in heliospheric physics related to solar wind turbulence. In this paper, we have investigated the behavior of ε {sub N} in the inner heliosphere from 0.26 to 0.82 AU. The density fluctuations ΔN have been deduced using extensive ground-based observations of interplanetary scintillation at 327 MHz, which probe spatial scales of a few hundred kilometers. The background densities (N) have been derived using near-Earth observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer. Our analysis reveals that 0.001 ≲ ε {sub N} ≲ 0.02 and does not vary appreciably with heliocentric distance. We also find that ε {sub N} declines by 8% from 1998 to 2008. We discuss the impact of these findings on problems ranging from our understanding of Forbush decreases to the behavior of the solar wind dynamic pressure over the recent peculiar solar minimum at the end of cycle 23.

  19. Solar-cycle modulation of event rates in the chlorine solar neutrino experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahcall, John N.; Press, William H.

    1991-04-01

    The time dependence of the event rates in the Homestake chlorine solar neutrino experiment are reexamined using new Ar-37 production data covering the period from late 1986 to mid-1989. The data span almost two complete solar cycles. A careful statistical analysis using nonparametric rank-order statistics is used to calculate quantitative significance levels that do not depend on experimental errors. The results show that the Ar-37 production rate in the experiment is anticorrelated with solar activity for approximately 1977-1989. The shape of the Ar-37 production rate is different from the inverted sunspot activity curve. The Ar-37 production rate is better descrbed by a skewed sawtooth function than by the sunspot number. The best-fitting sawtooth function with sunspot period has a slow rise and a rapid decline. The Ar-37 maximum occurs about 12.5 yr after the solar sunspot minimum, while minimum Ar-37 production is more nearly simultaneous with the sunspot maximum.

  20. Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

    1978-01-01

    On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.

  1. Field aligned current study during the solar declining- extreme minimum of 23 solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepolian, Jeni Victor; Kumar, Anil; C, Panneerselvam

    Field Aligned Current (FAC) density study has been carried out during the solar declining phase from 2004 to 2006 of the 23rd solar cycle and the ambient terrestrial magnetic field of the extended minimum period of 2008 and 2009. We mainly depended on CHAMP satellite data (http://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/) for computing the FAC density with backup of IGRF-10 model. The study indicates that, the FAC is controlled by quasi-viscous processes occurring at the flank of the earth’s magnetosphere. The dawn-dusk conventional pattern enhanced during disturbed days. The intensity of R1 current system is higher than the R2 current system. Detailed results will be discussed in the conference.

  2. Solar cycle variations in the size and shape of the magnetopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrinec, S. P.; Song, P.; Russell, C. T.

    1991-05-01

    The 10 years of the ISEE 1 and 2 mission covering much of solar cycle 21 and the beginning of solar cycle 22 make it possible to study the position, shape, and motion of the magnetopause throughout the course of changing solar activity. The size and shape of the magnetopause were determined for each observing season using the ISEE 1 and 2 magnetometer data IMP 8 data were used to monitor the solar wind changes with the solar cycle. During the 1979-1980 season, at solar maximum, the solar wind dynamic pressure was at its lowest values, and, at solar minimum, the solar wind pressure was at its largest values, more than double the value in the 1979-1980 season. During this solar cycle, the magnetopause was about 0.5 R(E) farther when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was strongly northward, than when strongly southward. Both standoff distance values are fround to be smaller than the value found by Fairfield (1971). The standoff distance of the magnetopause for northward IMF is anticorrelated with the solar wind pressure. However, the standoff distance for southward IMF seems relatively insensitive to solar wind dynamic pressure.

  3. Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, R. M.

    1982-01-01

    Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

  4. Predictions of the onset of mini ice age in the 25th solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Rajiv

    2016-07-01

    Predictions of the ir-regularty in the 11 year heartbeat of the sun due to asyncronous of the two layered dynamo effect would result in mini ice age as in the Maunder minimum.The onset of this event is expected in the begining of 25th solar cycle and would go to its maximum in the 26th solar cycle.The minimum temperature is expected in 2028 due to the fall of solar activity by 60 % termed as solar hibernation.The predictions are based on the observations obtained by the Royal Greenwich observatory since 1874. Keywords: Dynamo effect,munder minimum,Solar hybernation

  5. Rotation of solar magnetic fields for the current solar cycle 24

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, X. J.; Xie, J. L.

    2014-11-01

    The rotation of solar magnetic fields for the current solar cycle 24 is investigated through a cross-correlation analysis of the Carrington synoptic maps of solar photospheric magnetic fields during Carrington rotation numbers 2076-2146 (2008 October to 2014 January). The sidereal rotation rates of positive and negative magnetic fields at some latitudes are shown, and it can be found that the positive (negative) fields generally rotate faster than the negative (positive) fields in the southern (northern) hemisphere at low latitudes. The mean rotation profiles of total, positive, and negative magnetic fields between ±60° latitudes in the time interval are also obtained. It should be noted that both of the mean rotation profiles of the positive and negative magnetic fields, as well as the mean rotation profile of the total magnetic field, exhibit a quasi-rigid rotation at latitudes above about 55°. The mean rotation rates of the positive (negative) polarity reach their maximum values at about 9°(6)° latitude in the southern (northern) hemisphere. The mean rotation profile of the total magnetic field displays an obvious north-south asymmetry, where the rotation seems to be more differential in the northern hemisphere. The latitude variation in the rotation rate differences between positive and negative magnetic fields is further studied, and it is found that magnetic fields with the same polarity as the leading sunspots at a given hemisphere rotate faster than those with the opposite polarity, except for the zones around 52° latitude of the southern hemisphere and around 35° latitude of the northern hemisphere. The implication of these results is discussed. It is clear that the obtained results can provide some observational constraints on the theoretical research of the mechanisms of differential rotation and solar cycle.

  6. The Influence of Solar Proton Events in Solar Cycle 23 on the Neutral Middle Atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackman, Charles H.; vonKonig, Miriam; Anderson, John; Roble, Raymond G.; McPeters, Richard D.; Fleming, Eric L.; Russell, James M.

    2004-01-01

    Solar proton events (SPEs) can cause changes in constituents in the Earth's middle atmosphere. The highly energetic protons cause ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents, which lead to the production of HO(x) (H, OH, HO2) and NO(y) (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The HO(x) increases lead to short-lived ozone decreases in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere due to the short lifetimes of the HO, constituents. The NO(x) increases lead to long-lived stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of NO(y) constituents in this region. Solar cycle 23 was quite active with SPEs and very large fluxes of high energy protons occurred in July and November 2000, November 200 1, and April 2002. Smaller, but still substantial, proton fluxes impacted the Earth during other months in the 1997-2003 time period. The impact of the very large SPEs on the neutral middle atmosphere during solar cycle 23 will be discussed, including the HO(x), NO(y), ozone variations and induced atmospheric transport changes. Two multi-dimensional models, the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Two-dimensional (2D) Model and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), were used in computing the influence of the SPEs. The results of the GSFC 2D Model and the TIME-GCM will be shown along with comparisons to the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments.

  7. Correlation Between Decay Rate and Amplitude of Solar Cycles as Revealed from Observations and Dynamo Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazra, Gopal; Karak, Bidya Binay; Banerjee, Dipankar; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

    2015-06-01

    Using different proxies of solar activity, we have studied the following features of the solar cycle: i) The linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and its decay rate, ii) the linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and the decay rate of cycle , and iii) the anti-correlation between the amplitude of cycle and the period of cycle . Features ii) and iii) are very useful because they provide precursors for future cycles. We have reproduced these features using a flux-transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton effect and in the meridional circulation. Only when we introduce fluctuations in meridional circulation, are we able to reproduce different observed features of the solar cycle. We discuss the possible reasons for these correlations.

  8. High-latitude geomagnetic disturbances during ascending solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peitso, Pyry; Tanskanen, Eija; Stolle, Claudia; Berthou Lauritsen, Nynne; Matzka, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    High-latitude regions are very convenient for study of several space weather phenomena such as substorms. Large geographic coverage as well as long time series of data are essential due to the global nature of space weather and the long duration of solar cycles. We will examine geomagnetic activity in Greenland from magnetic field measurements taken by DTU (Technical University of Denmark) magnetometers during the years 2010 to 2014. The study uses data from 13 magnetometer stations located on the east coast of Greenland and one located on the west coast. The original measurements are in one second resolution, thus the amount of data is quite large. Magnetic field H component (positive direction towards the magnetic north) was used throughout the study. Data processing will be described from calibration of original measurements to plotting of long time series. Calibration consists of determining the quiet hour of a given day and reducing the average of that hour from all the time steps of the day. This normalizes the measurements and allows for better comparison between different time steps. In addition to the full time line of measurements, daily, monthly and yearly averages will be provided for all stations. Differential calculations on the change of the H component will also be made available for the duration of the full data set. Envelope curve plots will be presented for duration of the time line. Geomagnetic conditions during winter and summer will be compared to examine seasonal variation. Finally the measured activity will be compared to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) issued geomagnetic space weather alerts from 2010 to 2014. Calculations and plotting of measurement data were done with MATLAB. M_map toolbox was used for plotting of maps featured in the study (http://www2.ocgy.ubc.ca/~rich/map.html). The study was conducted as a part of the ReSoLVE (Research on Solar Long-term Variability and Effects) Center of Excellence.

  9. Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ruiguang

    During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth's environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index ( Dst). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with Dst ⩽ -50 nT within 1-5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have Dst index ⩽ -100 nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All Dst depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward Bz and in close to 80% of the cases that the Bz was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.

  10. THE THERMAL PROPERTIES OF SOLAR FLARES OVER THREE SOLAR CYCLES USING GOES X-RAY OBSERVATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, Daniel F.; Gallagher, Peter T.; Milligan, Ryan O.; Dennis, Brian R.; Kim Tolbert, A.; Schwartz, Richard A.; Alex Young, C.

    2012-10-15

    Solar flare X-ray emission results from rapidly increasing temperatures and emission measures in flaring active region loops. To date, observations from the X-Ray Sensor (XRS) on board the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) have been used to derive these properties, but have been limited by a number of factors, including the lack of a consistent background subtraction method capable of being automatically applied to large numbers of flares. In this paper, we describe an automated Temperature and Emission measure-Based Background Subtraction method (TEBBS), that builds on the methods of Bornmann. Our algorithm ensures that the derived temperature is always greater than the instrumental limit and the pre-flare background temperature, and that the temperature and emission measure are increasing during the flare rise phase. Additionally, TEBBS utilizes the improved estimates of GOES temperatures and emission measures from White et al. TEBBS was successfully applied to over 50,000 solar flares occurring over nearly three solar cycles (1980-2007), and used to create an extensive catalog of the solar flare thermal properties. We confirm that the peak emission measure and total radiative losses scale with background subtracted GOES X-ray flux as power laws, while the peak temperature scales logarithmically. As expected, the peak emission measure shows an increasing trend with peak temperature, although the total radiative losses do not. While these results are comparable to previous studies, we find that flares of a given GOES class have lower peak temperatures and higher peak emission measures than previously reported. The TEBBS database of flare thermal plasma properties is publicly available at http://www.SolarMonitor.org/TEBBS/.

  11. The solar wind structure and heliospheric magnetic field in the solar Cycle 23-24 minimum and in the increasing phase of Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, S. E.; Zhao, L.; Fisk, L. A.

    2011-12-01

    The solar wind structure and the heliospheric magnetic field were substantially different in the latest solar minimum between solar Cycle 23 and 24 from the previous minimum. Compared with the previous minimum, in the latest solar minimum, the heliospheric magnetic field strength was substantially reduced; the streamer-associated-low-temperature solar wind (streamer-stalk wind) was distributed in a narrower region relative to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS); the slow-proton-speed solar wind was scattered in a wider latitudinal region; and there are more large and steady coronal holes at low latitude. We offer an explanation for the decreased magnetic-field strength and the narrowed streamer-stalk wind based on an analysis of the Ulysses and ACE in-situ observations. Solar-wind composition data are used to demonstrate that there are two distinct structures of solar wind: solar wind likely to originate from the stalk of the streamer belt (the highly elongated loops that underlie the HCS), and solar wind from outside this region. The region outside the streamer-stalk region is noticeably larger in the Cycle 23-24 minimum; however, the increased area can account for the reduction in the heliospheric magnetic-field strength in that minimum. Thus, the total magnetic flux contained in this region is the same in the two minima. To have a further understanding of the solar wind structure and its solar source, we ballistically map the ACE in-situ observation back along a radial trajectory from 1 AU to the solar source surface (r = 2.5Rsun) using the observed proton speeds. Then we track the field line from the source surface to the solar surface using a potential-field-source-surface (PFSS) extrapolation model. So the ACE observations, including the heliospheric magnetic field, the solar wind compositional and dynamic properties at 1AU, can be connected to their coronal sources on the solar surface. Synoptic maps showing this connection will be provided, and based on

  12. Helioseismic inferences of the solar cycles 23 and 24: GOLF and VIRGO observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Sun-as-a star helioseismic spectrophotometer GOLF and photometer VIRGO instruments onboard the SoHO spacecraft are collecting high-quality, continuous data since April 1996. We analyze here these unique datasets in order to investigate the peculiar and weak on-going solar cycle 24. As this cycle 24 is reaching its maximum, we compare its rising phase with the rising phase of the previous solar cycle 23.

  13. Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Dasi-Espuig, María; Balmaceda, Laura A.; DeLuca, Edward E.

    2013-04-01

    The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

  14. SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria; Balmaceda, Laura A. E-mail: edeluca@cfa.harvard.edu E-mail: lbalmaceda@icate-conicet.gob.ar

    2013-04-20

    The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

  15. Segmentation of EUV spectroheliograms to track and measure solar EUVI variability within a solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez-Galarce, D. S.; Slater, G. L.; Mcintosh, S. W.

    2011-12-01

    of ~1.3 solar cycles (~16 years). Using this segmented imaging approach the goal of the study is to determine solar EUVI variability observed in each EIT bandpass, as a function of areal identification (e.g., active vs. coronal hole EUV variability), over the entire period of observations.

  16. Concept definition study of small Brayton cycle engines for dispersed solar electric power systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Six, L. D.; Ashe, T. L.; Dobler, F. X.; Elkins, R. T.

    1980-01-01

    Three first-generation Brayton cycle engine types were studied for solar application: a near-term open cycle (configuration A), a near-term closed cycle (configuration B), and a longer-term open cycle (configuration C). A parametric performance analysis was carried out to select engine designs for the three configurations. The interface requirements for the Brayton cycle engine/generator and solar receivers were determined. A technology assessment was then carried out to define production costs, durability, and growth potential for the selected engine types.

  17. Solar cycle signal in Earth rotation: nonstationary behavior.

    PubMed

    Currie, R G

    1981-01-23

    Following the discovery of the 11-year solar cycle signal in earth rotation, linear techniques were employed to investigate the amplitude and phase of the difference between ephemeris time and universal time (DeltaT) as a function of time. The amplitude is nonstationary. This difference was related to Delta(LOD), the difference between the length of day and its nominal value. The 11-year term in Delta(LOD) was 0.8 millisecond at the close of the 18th century and decreased below noise level from 1840 to 1860. From 1875 to 1925, Delta(LOD) was about 0.16 millisecond, and it decreased to about 0.08 millisecond by the 1950's. Except for anomalous behavior from 1797 to 1838, DeltaT lags sunspot numbers by 3.0 +/- 0.4 years. Since DeltaT lags Delta(LOD) by 2.7 years, the result is that Delta(LOD) is approximately in phase with sunspot numbers. PMID:17748272

  18. Solar Cycle Effects on Geosynchronous Satellite Surface Charging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habash Krause, L.; Chun, F. K.; Cooke, D. L.; Putz, V. B.; Ray, K. P.

    2005-05-01

    Spacecraft in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) frequently undergo surface charging following injection of energetic (E ~ 10 keV) electrons into the environment, especially within the post-midnight sector. Charging data from the GEO spacecraft Defense Satellite Communication System (DSCS-III) B-7 have been recorded over one half solar cycle. The Charge Control Experiment (CCE) aboard DSCS-III B-7 recorded incident fluxes of energetic electrons, ion spectra for determining frame-to-plasma potentials, and dielectric surface-to-frame (differential) charging levels; additionally, it incorporated a Xe plasma contactor for neutralization of charged components. Previous studies have shown 1) a general correlation between geomagnetic activity indices and the severity of frame charging, and 2) a general correlation between the intensity of energetic electron fluxes and differential charging severity. However, it was also shown that the event-specific correlations contain enough variance to cast doubt on the utility of these correlations for a predictive system. With this study, we present both a principle components analysis and a multiple linear regression of the data which incorporate a combination of factors leading to both frame and differential charging, including the geomagnetic activity indices and intensities of the energetic electron fluxes.

  19. A new solar cycle model including meridional circulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R., Jr.; Nash, A. G.

    1991-01-01

    A kinematic model is presented for the solar cycle which includes not only the transport of magnetic flux by supergranular diffusion and a poleward bulk flow at the sun's surface, but also the effects of turbulent diffusion and an equatorward 'return flow' beneath the surface. As in the earlier models of Babcock and Leighton, the rotational shearing of a subsurface poloidal field generates toroidal flux that erupts at the surface in the form of bipolar magnetic regions. However, such eruptions do not result in any net loss of toroidal flux from the sun (as assumed by Babcock and Leighton); instead, the large-scale toroidal field is destroyed both by 'unwinding' as the local poloidal field reverses its polarity, and by diffusion as the toroidal flux is transported equatorward by the subsurface flow and merged with its opposite hemisphere counterpart. The inclusion of meridional circulation allows stable oscillations of the magnetic field, accompanied by the equatorward progression of flux eruptions, to be achieved even in the absence of a radial gradient in the angular velocity. An illustrative case in which a subsurface flow speed of order 1 m/s and subsurface diffusion rate of order 10 sq km/s yield 22-yr oscillations in qualitative agreement with observations.

  20. SOLAR CYCLE 24: CURIOUS CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE NUMBERS OF SUNSPOT GROUP TYPES

    SciTech Connect

    Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

    2014-10-10

    Here, we analyze different sunspot group (SG) behaviors from the points of view of both the sunspot counts (SSCs) and the number of SGs, in four categories, for the time period of 1982 January-2014 May. These categories include data from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E, and F), and decaying (H) SGs. We investigate temporal variations of all data sets used in this study and find the following results. (1) There is a very significant decrease in the large groups' SSCs and the number of SGs in solar cycle 24 (cycle 24) compared to cycles 21-23. (2) There is no strong variation in the decaying groups' data sets for the entire investigated time interval. (3) Medium group data show a gradual decrease for the last three cycles. (4) A significant decrease occurred in the small groups during solar cycle 23, while no strong changes show in the current cycle (cycle 24) compared to the previous ones. We confirm that the temporal behavior of all categories is quite different from cycle to cycle and it is especially flagrant in solar cycle 24. Thus, we argue that the reduced absolute number of the large SGs is largely, if not solely, responsible for the weak cycle 24. These results might be important for long-term space weather predictions to understand the rate of formation of different groups of sunspots during a solar cycle and the possible consequences for the long-term geomagnetic activity.

  1. The Impact Of Torsional Oscillations On The Solar Cycle: The Waldmeier-effect As An Outcome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahajan, Sushant S.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Dwivedi, Bhola N.; Antia, H. M.

    2016-05-01

    Temporal variations in the Sun’s internal velocity field with a periodicity of about 11 years have been observed in the last three decades. The period of these torsional oscillations and their latitudinal propagation roughly coincide with the period and equatorward propagation of sunspots which originate from a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism operating in the Sun’s interior. While the solar differential rotation plays an important role in this dynamo mechanism by inducting the toroidal component of magnetic field, the impact of torsional oscillations on the dynamo mechanism – and hence the solar cycle – is not well understood. Here, we include the observed torsional oscillations into a flux transport dynamo model of the solar cycle to inves- tigate their effect. Although the overall amplitude of the solar cycle does not change significantly on inclusion of torsional oscillations we find that all the characteristics of the Waldmeier effect inthe sunspot cycle are qualitatively reproduced by varying only the amplitude of torsional oscillations. The Waldmeier effect, first noted in 1935, includes the important characteristic that the amplitude of sunspot cycles is anti-correlated to their rise time; cycles with high initial rise rate tend to be stronger. This has implications for solar cycle predictions. Our result suggests that the Waldmeier effect is a plausible outcome of cycle-to-cycle modulation of torsional oscillations and provides a physical basis for sunspot cycle forecasts based on torsional oscillation observations.

  2. Responses of power systems in Canada to the space weather disturbances of the solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trichtchenko, Larisa; Guillon, Sebastien; Boteler, David; Pirjola, Risto

    2015-04-01

    Significant geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in power systems during the geomagnetic storms are the hazardous impacts of the solar activity. While during solar cycle 23 the most of the geomagnetic storms and subsequent effects on the power systems were resulting from the coronal mass ejections often associated with the significant flaring activity, the solar cycle 24 is quite different. During this current solar cycle there were not so many obvious sources of geomagnetic storms so far and the associated GIC activity perhaps was not that significant, especially at low latitude. The lack of significant space weather events gives the opportunity to identify the ground signatures of sources less pronounced during strong cycles, such as disappearing filaments and high speed streams. In the presentations we will discuss several cases when the recordings of the GIC and other power system parameters in Canada (high latitudes) show the presence of significant GIC in power systems during solar cycle 24. Their possible solar sources will be analyzed and compared with the GIC recordings and corresponding solar sources during "strong" solar cycle 23.

  3. Temporal Offsets Between Maximum CME Speed Index and Solar, Geomagnetic, and Interplanetary Indicators During Solar Cycle 23 and the Ascending Phase of Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Özgüç, A.; Kilcik, A.; Georgieva, K.; Kirov, B.

    2016-05-01

    On the basis of a morphological analysis of yearly values of the maximum coronal mass ejection (CME) speed index, the sunspot number and total sunspot area, sunspot magnetic field, and solar flare index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength, and the geomagnetic Ap and D_{st} indices, we point out the particularities of solar and geomagnetic activity during the last Cycle 23, the long minimum that followed it, and the ascending branch of Cycle 24. We also analyze the temporal offset between the maximum CME speed index and the above-mentioned solar, geomagnetic, and interplanetary indices. It is found that this solar activity index, analyzed jointly with other solar activity, interplanetary parameters, and geomagnetic activity indices, shows a hysteresis phenomenon. It is observed that these parameters follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of Cycle 23. The hysteresis phenomenon represents a clue in the search for physical processes responsible for linking the solar activity to near-Earth and geomagnetic responses.

  4. Temporal Offsets Between Maximum CME Speed Index and Solar, Geomagnetic, and Interplanetary Indicators During Solar Cycle 23 and the Ascending Phase of Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Özgüç, A.; Kilcik, A.; Georgieva, K.; Kirov, B.

    2016-06-01

    On the basis of a morphological analysis of yearly values of the maximum coronal mass ejection (CME) speed index, the sunspot number and total sunspot area, sunspot magnetic field, and solar flare index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength, and the geomagnetic Ap and D_{st} indices, we point out the particularities of solar and geomagnetic activity during the last Cycle 23, the long minimum that followed it, and the ascending branch of Cycle 24. We also analyze the temporal offset between the maximum CME speed index and the above-mentioned solar, geomagnetic, and interplanetary indices. It is found that this solar activity index, analyzed jointly with other solar activity, interplanetary parameters, and geomagnetic activity indices, shows a hysteresis phenomenon. It is observed that these parameters follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of Cycle 23. The hysteresis phenomenon represents a clue in the search for physical processes responsible for linking the solar activity to near-Earth and geomagnetic responses.

  5. Evolution of the Relationships between Helium Abundance, Minor Ion Charge State, and Solar Wind Speed over the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasper, J. C.; Stevens, M. L.; Korreck, K. E.; Maruca, B. A.; Kiefer, K. K.; Schwadron, N. A.; Lepri, S. T.

    2012-02-01

    The changing relationships between solar wind speed, helium abundance, and minor ion charge state are examined over solar cycle 23. Observations of the abundance of helium relative to hydrogen (A He ≡ 100 × n He/n H) by the Wind spacecraft are used to examine the dependence of A He on solar wind speed and solar activity between 1994 and 2010. This work updates an earlier study of A He from 1994 to 2004 to include the recent extreme solar minimum and broadly confirms our previous result that A He in slow wind is strongly correlated with sunspot number, reaching its lowest values in each solar minima. During the last minimum, as sunspot numbers reached their lowest levels in recent history, A He continued to decrease, falling to half the levels observed in slow wind during the previous minimum and, for the first time observed, decreasing even in the fastest solar wind. We have also extended our previous analysis by adding measurements of the mean carbon and oxygen charge states observed with the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft since 1998. We find that as solar activity decreased, the mean charge states of oxygen and carbon for solar wind of a given speed also fell, implying that the wind was formed in cooler regions in the corona during the recent solar minimum. The physical processes in the coronal responsible for establishing the mean charge state and speed of the solar wind have evolved with solar activity and time.

  6. Solar cycle dependence of the solar wind dynamics: Pioneer, Voyager, and Ulysses from 1 to 5 AU

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Esparza, J. Américo; Smith, Edward J.

    1996-11-01

    Significant differences between Pioneer and Voyager observations were found in solar wind structure between 1 and 6 AU. These disagreements were attributed to temporal effects related to the solar cycle, but no unifying study of Pioneer-Voyager observations was performed. On the basis of maps of large-scale features we unify previous reports of Pioneers 10 and 11, Voyagers 1 and 2, and Ulysses observations from 1 to 5 AU. The five spacecraft traveled from Earth to Jupiter at different phases of the solar sunspot cycle. We compare the observations of solar wind streams, interplanetary shock waves, interaction regions, and magnetic sectors. We find that solar wind dynamics has a very irregular behavior throughout the solar cycle. There are continual transitions between periods of a few solar rotations dominated by slow solar wind, transient events, and irregular patterns of magnetic sectors; and periods of a few solar rotations dominated by interaction regions and well-defined magnetic sectors. These transitions occur at temporal scales of the order of 2-4 solar rotations. It is suggested that these transitions are associated with changes in coronal holes and might be related to the yearly modulation of solar wind speeds. The five spacecraft observed, on average, about 3 to 4 interplanetary shocks per solar rotation period. The 90 percent of the total number of shocks detected by Pioneer 11 were caused by interaction regions. However, between 40 to 55 percent of the total number of shocks detected by the other spacecraft were transient forward shocks. The expansion rate of the CIRs between 1 to 5 AU is about 94 km/s, however, there is a significant diversity in the characteristics of the interaction regions.

  7. Flexible thermal cycle test equipment for concentrator solar cells

    DOEpatents

    Hebert, Peter H.; Brandt, Randolph J.

    2012-06-19

    A system and method for performing thermal stress testing of photovoltaic solar cells is presented. The system and method allows rapid testing of photovoltaic solar cells under controllable thermal conditions. The system and method presents a means of rapidly applying thermal stresses to one or more photovoltaic solar cells in a consistent and repeatable manner.

  8. The response of chemistry and climate to the 11-year solar cycle in UM-UKCA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarz, Ewa; Telford, Paul; Maycock, Amanda; Abraham, Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, John

    2014-05-01

    It is now generally agreed that the UV variability associated with the 11-year solar cycle leads to changes in ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere. In addition, a range of observational and modelling studies suggest that such changes are the starting point for a chain of processes (including feedbacks) resulting in circulation changes in many areas of the atmosphere. However, precise details of the interactions between chemistry and meteorology induced by solar variability remain under question. In our study, we use a version of the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with consistent spectrally-resolved solar variability. While the solar cycle in heating rates has been applied with the method used in HadGEM2-ES, fine spectrally-resolved solar variability has been uniquely incorporated into the Fast-JX photolysis scheme. We perform two 50-year-long perpetual year solar maximum and solar minimum integrations and complement them with a three member ensemble of a transient 1960-2010 integration in which boundary conditions correspond by and large to the CCMI Ref-C1 scenario. We show how the inferred solar signals vary between the individual experiments. This indicates high natural variability and the resulting contamination of the solar signal with contributions from other processes as well as the existence of possible non-linearities between the solar cycle and other atmospheric forcings. Therefore, we highlight that long data series are needed to ensure correct attribution of the modelled and observed anomalies. In addition, we present results from two perpetual year experiments in which the solar cycle was applied exclusively in either short-wave heating or photolysis. We find large non-linearities in the modelled anomalies as compared to the realistic integration with both modulations included. This highlights the subtle nature of the dynamical response to the solar cycle forcing and indicates the need for interactive chemistry with a detailed photolysis

  9. A comparative study of solar facula during cycle 23 and 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chowdhury, P.; Choudhary, D. P.; Moon, Y. J.

    2015-12-01

    The solar activity minimum between the end of cycle 23 and beginning of cycle 24 was the longest and deepest since the modern satellite era of 20th century. In this paper, we have investigated statistical properties of solar facula and sunspot area (and their ratio) covering entire solar cycle 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. The facular area has been considered from the K-line composite at the San Fernando Observatory and is a direct measurement of the strength of solar cycle activity. It is found that solar facular area decreased during minimum phase of cycle 23/24 compared to maximum phase and also during rising phase of cycle 24. However, the ratio of facula to sunspot area increased during minimum epoch of cycle 23. Power spectrum analysis shows that along with other periods, the solar rotational periods 22 -31 days and Rieger type periods are both prominent during maxima, minima of cycle 23 and ascending branch of cycle 24. During the decline phase of cycle 23, the period ~ 27 days is more prominent whereas ~ 14 days and ~ 31 days periods are dominant during activity maxima. During maximum phase of cycle 23 and 24, there was no phase lag between sunspot and facular area, but a phase lag ~ 3 months has been detected during activity minima of cycle 23. These results indicate that the distribution of active regions during the activity maximum years is quite different from that in the minimum years. We shall present discussion of our results in this paper.

  10. The sunspot cycle no. 24 in relation to long term solar activity variation

    PubMed Central

    Komitov, Boris; Kaftan, Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    The solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 during the period 2007–2009 has been the longest and deepest one at least since for the last 100 years. We suggest that the Sun is going to his next supercenturial minimum. The main aim of this paper is to tell about arguments concerning this statement. They are based on series of studies, which have been provided during the period since 1997 up to 2010. The progress of solar cycle 24 since its minimum at the end of 2008 up to the end of October 2011 in the light of long term solar activity dynamics is analyzed. PMID:25685429

  11. The sunspot cycle no. 24 in relation to long term solar activity variation.

    PubMed

    Komitov, Boris; Kaftan, Vladimir

    2013-05-01

    The solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 during the period 2007-2009 has been the longest and deepest one at least since for the last 100 years. We suggest that the Sun is going to his next supercenturial minimum. The main aim of this paper is to tell about arguments concerning this statement. They are based on series of studies, which have been provided during the period since 1997 up to 2010. The progress of solar cycle 24 since its minimum at the end of 2008 up to the end of October 2011 in the light of long term solar activity dynamics is analyzed. PMID:25685429

  12. Solar Cycle 24 Behavior and Progress on FISM Version 2 Product

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlin, Phillip C.

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle 24 has continued to increase in activity towards its peak expected in late 2013. The updated NOAA/SWPC solar cycle prediction as well as the outlook for solar activity during the MAVEN 1-Earth-year mission will be presented. Also presented will be a status updated on the progress of the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) version 2 product, which will be a deliverable for the MAVEN mission as it will provide the full solar spectrum from 0.1-190 nm at 0.1 nm spectral resolution and 1-minute temporal resolution based on the three EUV diodes from the MAVEN LPW JEUV instrument.

  13. The Divergence of CME and Sunspot Number Rates During Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, David F.; St. Cyr, Orville Chris; Xie, Hong; Kuchar, Thomas Andrew

    2014-06-01

    In the previous three solar cycles the frequency of occurrence of CMEs observed in white light has closely tracked the solar cycle in both phase and amplitude, varying by an order of magnitude over the cycle. LASCO has now observed the entire solar Cycle 23 and continues to observe through the current rise and maximum phases of Cycle 24. Cycle 23 had an unusually long decline and extended minimum. During this period we have been able to image and count CMEs in the heliosphere, and can determine rates from both LASCO and STEREO SECCHI (since 2007) coronagraphs and from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI - since 2003) and the SECCHI Heliospheric Imagers in the heliosphere. Manual rates estimated by observers are now supplemented by counts from identifications made by automatic programs, such as contained in the SEEDS, CACTus and ARTEMIS catalogs. Since the cycle 23/24 minimum, the CME and sunspot number rates have diverged, with similar cycle 23/24 rise and peak CME rates but much lower SSN rates in this cycle. We will discuss these rate estimates and their implications for the evolution of the global solar magnetic field.

  14. The State of the Corona During the Weak Solar Cycle 24: the View from LASCO Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A.; Boclet, B.

    2016-04-01

    The LASCO-C2 coronagraph onboard SOHO continues its white-light imaging of the corona from 1.5 to 6.0 solar radii, thus allowing investigating the consequences of the weak Solar Cycle 24 on the corona and comparing it to the previous cycle (23). Temporal variations of the global radiance of the corona are presented. We pay particular attention to the mid-term variations which are distinctly different between the two cycles and highlight the similarities and differences. Finally, we rely on our ARTEMIS II catalog of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to compare their global rates during these two cycles.

  15. Extreme ultraviolet solar irradiance during the rising phase of solar cycle 24 observed by PROBA2/LYRA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Dammasch, Ingolf E.; Dominique, Marie; Zender, Joe; Cessateur, Gaël; D'Huys, Elke

    2012-08-01

    The Large-Yield Radiometer (LYRA) is a radiometer that has monitored the solar irradiance at high cadence and in four pass bands since January 2010. Both the instrument and its spacecraft, PROBA2 (Project for OnBoard Autonomy), have several innovative features for space instrumentation, which makes the data reduction necessary to retrieve the long-term variations of solar irradiance more complex than for a fully optimized solar physics mission. In this paper, we describe how we compute the long-term time series of the two extreme ultraviolet irradiance channels of LYRA and compare the results with those of SDO/EVE. We find that the solar EUV irradiance has increased by a factor of 2 since the last solar minimum (between solar cycles 23 and 24), which agrees reasonably well with the EVE observations.

  16. Using Polar Coronal Hole Area Measurements to Determine the Solar Polar Magnetic Field Reversal in Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karna, N.; Webber, S.A. Hess; Pesnell, W.D.

    2014-01-01

    An analysis of solar polar coronal hole (PCH) areas since the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows how the polar regions have evolved during Solar Cycle 24. We present PCH areas from mid-2010 through 2013 using data from the Atmospheric Imager Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments onboard SDO. Our analysis shows that both the northern and southern PCH areas have decreased significantly in size since 2010. Linear fits to the areas derived from the magnetic-field properties indicate that, although the northern hemisphere went through polar-field reversal and reached solar-maximum conditions in mid-2012, the southern hemisphere had not reached solar-maximum conditions in the polar regions by the end of 2013. Our results show that solar-maximum conditions in each hemisphere, as measured by the area of the polar coronal holes and polar magnetic field, will be offset in time.

  17. Simulating the Outer Radiation Belt During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Zheng, Qiuhua; Chen, Sheng-Hsien; Kanekal, Shri; Nagai, Tsungunobu; Albert, Jay

    2011-01-01

    After prolonged period of solar minimum, there has been an increase in solar activity and its terrestrial consequences. We are in the midst of the rising phase of solar cycle 24, which began in January 2008. During the initial portion of the cycle, moderate geomagnetic storms occurred follow the 27 day solar rotation. Most of the storms were accompanied by increases in electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt. These enhancements were often preceded with rapid dropout at high L shells. We seek to understand the similarities and differences in radiation belt behavior during the active times observed during the of this solar cycle. This study includes extensive data and simulations our Radiation Belt Environment Model. We identify the processes, transport and wave-particle interactions, that are responsible for the flux dropout and the enhancement and recovery.

  18. RHESSI/SAS Observations of the Optical Solar Limb Over a Full Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fivian, M. D.; Hudson, H. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Solar Aspect System (SAS) of the RHESSI satellite measures the optical solar limb in the red continuum with a cadence typically set at 16 samples/s in each of three linear CCD sensors. RHESSI has observed the Sun continuously since its launch in early 2002, and we have acquired a unique data set ranging over a full 11-year solar cycle and consisting of about 3x10^10 single data points. Analyzing data for an initial period in 2004, these measurements have led to the most accurate oblateness measurement to date, 8.01+-0.14 milli arcsec (Fivian et al., 2008), a value consistent with models predicting an oblateness from surface rotation. An excess oblateness term can be attributed to magnetic elements possibly located in the enhanced network. We have started to also study photometric properties of our data. Previous observations of latitude-dependent brightness variations at the limb had suggested the presence of a polar temperature excess as large as 1.5 K. The RHESSI observations, made with a rotating telescope in space, have great advantages in the rejection of systematic errors in the very precise photometry required for such an observation. Our new measurements of latitude-dependent brightness variations at the limb lead to a quadrupolar term (a pole-to-equator temperature variation) of the order of 0.1 K, an order of magnitude smaller than previously reported. We present the analysis of these unique data, an overview of some results and we report on our progress as we apply our developed analysis method to the whole 12 years of data.

  19. On the Influence of the Solar Bi-Cycle on Comic Ray Modulatio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lifter, N. Part Xxvii: A. Defect Of The Solar Dynamo. B.; Scissors, K.; Sprucener, H.

    In this presentation we propose a new paradigm that explains the different lengths of individual solar Hale cycles. It proves beneficial to distinguish between a so-called inHale and ex-Hale cycle, which together form the solar bi-cycle. We carefully analyzed the influence of so-called complex mode excitations (CMEs) on comic ray modulation, in particular on the drifts of the comic isotope O+3 , which we found to induce characteristic anisotropies. This comic isotope anisotropy (CIA) is caused by the wellknown north-south asymmetry (NSA) and can be observed as a rare Forbush increase (FBI). The latter is linked to the solar magnetic field which appears to have a chaotic behaviour (for details see part I-XXVI). Especially during an ex-Hale cycle magnetic flux is pseudo-pneumatically escaping through a coronal hole. Consequently, the solar dynamo can no longer operate efficiently, i.e. is defect.

  20. Thermal cycle testing of Space Station Freedom solar array blanket coupons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheiman, David A.; Schieman, David A.

    1991-01-01

    Lewis Research Center is presently conducting thermal cycle testing of solar array blanket coupons that represent the baseline design for Space Station Freedom. Four coupons were fabricated as part of the Photovoltaic Array Environment Protection (PAEP) Program, NAS 3-25079, at Lockheed Missile and Space Company. The objective of the testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within a low earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycling environment. Secondary objectives include the observation and identification of potential failure modes and effects that may occur within the solar array blanket coupons as a result of thermal cycling. The objectives, test articles, test chamber, performance evaluation, test requirements, and test results are presented for the successful completion of 60,000 thermal cycles.

  1. Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

    2003-01-01

    We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty

  2. Thermospheric hydrogen - The long-term solar influence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breig, E. L.; Sanatani, S.; Hanson, W. B.

    1985-01-01

    Atmospheric Explorer C and E satellite data are employed for a long-term analysis of the behavior of thermospheric hydrogen with respect to the 11 yr solar cycle. The data covered the period 1974-79 (increasing solar activity) and comprised in situ ionospheric (F region) and neutral atmospheric data. The data were analyzed statistically to characterize low latitude hydrogen behavior, e.g., the diurnal variation and mean concentration over the 5 yr data sampling period. Both the mean and daily maximum/minimum ratio (DMMR) varied with the solar F index. The escaping flux of H ions became a contant around 1000 K. Increasing thermospheric temperatures lowered the DMMR value. However, the DMMR values calculated were consistently large enough to require inclusion of neutral winds and/or diurnal variations in charge exchange fluxes moving in and out of the plasmasphere in any model for thermospheric hydrogen behavior.

  3. TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

    SciTech Connect

    Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.; Goode, P. R.; Cao, W.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

    2011-04-10

    Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.

  4. Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R.

    2015-06-01

    The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

  5. The Variability of Solar Spectral Irradiance and Solar Surface Indices Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deniz Goker, Umit

    2016-07-01

    A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the wavelength ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV) spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN) from interactive data centers as SME (NSSDC), UARS (GDAAC), SORCE (LISIRD) and SIDC, respectively. We developed a special software for extracting the data and reduced this data by using the MATLAB. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm) emission lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the ground-based telescopes as Solar Irradiance Platform, Stanford Data (SFO), Kodaikanal Data (KKL) and NGDC Homepage (Rome and Learmonth Solar Observatories). We studied the variations of total solar irradiance (TSI), magnetic field, sunspots/sunspot groups, Ca II K-flux, faculae and plage areas data with these ground-based telescopes, respectively. We reduced the selected data using the Phyton programming language and plot with the IDL programme. Therefore, we found that there was a decrease in the area of bright faculae and chromospheric plages while the percentage of dark faculae and plage decrease, as well. However, these decreases mainly occurred in small sunspots, contrary to this, these terms in large sunspot groups were comparable to previous SCs or even larger. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these emissions are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/sunspot groups and "PLAGE" regions. Finally, we applied the time series of the chemical elements correspond to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and compared with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increasing in the 298.5 nm for the Fe II element. The variability of Fe II (298.5 nm) is in close connection with the plage regions and the sizes of the

  6. Solar activity cycle and the incidence of foetal chromosome abnormalities detected at prenatal diagnosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halpern, Gabrielle J.; Stoupel, Eliahu G.; Barkai, Gad; Chaki, Rina; Legum, Cyril; Fejgin, Moshe D.; Shohat, Mordechai

    1995-06-01

    We studied 2001 foetuses during the period of minimal solar activity of solar cycle 21 and 2265 foetuses during the period of maximal solar activity of solar cycle 22, in all women aged 37 years and over who underwent free prenatal diagnosis in four hospitals in the greater Tel Aviv area. There were no significant differences in the total incidence of chromosomal abnormalities or of trisomy between the two periods (2.15% and 1.8% versus 2.34% and 2.12%, respectively). However, the trend of excessive incidence of chromosomal abnormalities in the period of maximal solar activity suggests that a prospective study in a large population would be required to rule out any possible effect of extreme solar activity.

  7. UVCS/SOHO Observations of Large Coronal Holes During Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.; Cranmer, S. R.; Kohl, J. L.

    2002-12-01

    The Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) aboard SOHO has been collecting spectroscopic data from numerous coronal holes as part of an ongoing campaign to determine the plasma properties of the solar wind acceleration region throughout the current solar cycle. The UVCS observations show marked variations of ion properties (in the acceleration region of the high-speed solar wind) in different types of coronal holes. We present empirical models for the physical properties of large coronal holes and the acceleration of the associated high-speed solar wind derived from ultraviolet coronagraphic spectroscopy. We discuss the role of solar cycle trends and the variation of ambient coronal-hole properties (e.g., magnetic field, geometry, density). We use these observations to test phenomenological models of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NAG5-11420 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  8. Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing.

    PubMed

    Meehl, Gerald A; Arblaster, Julie M; Matthes, Katja; Sassi, Fabrizio; van Loon, Harry

    2009-08-28

    One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface. PMID:19713524

  9. Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Solar Photovoltaics (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2012-11-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently led the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Harmonization Project, a study that helps to clarify inconsistent and conflicting life cycle GHG emission estimates in the published literature and provide more precise estimates of life cycle GHG emissions from PV systems.

  10. A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY

    SciTech Connect

    Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

    2009-08-01

    Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of the lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.

  11. Observations of Solar Spectral Irradiance Change During Cycle 22 from NOAA-9 SBUV/2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

    2003-01-01

    The NOM-9 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, model 2 (SBUV/2) instrument is one of a series of instruments providing daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the middle and near ultraviolet since 1978. The SBUV/2 instruments are primarily designed to measure stratospheric profile and total column ozone, using the directional albedo as the input to the ozone processing algorithm. As a result, the SBUV/2 instrument does not have onboard monitoring of all time-dependent response changes. We have applied internal comparisons and vicarious (external) comparisons to determine the long-term instrument characterization for NOAA-9 SBUV/2 to derive accurate solar spectral irradiances from March 1985 to May 1997 spanning two solar cycle minima with a single instrument. The NOAA-9 data show an amplitude of 9.3(+/- 2.3)% (81-day averaged) at 200-205 nm for solar cycle 22. This is consistent with the result of (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 8.3(+/- 2.6)% for cycle 21 from Nimbus-7 SBUV and (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 10(+/- 2)% (daily values) for cycle 23 from UARS SUSIM. NOAA-9 data at 245-250 nm show a solar cycle amplitude of (Delta)F(sub 245-250) = 5.7(+/- 1.8)%. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 data can be combined with other instruments to create a 25-year record of solar UV irradiance.

  12. ON POSSIBLE VARIATIONS OF BASAL Ca II K CHROMOSPHERIC LINE PROFILES WITH THE SOLAR CYCLE

    SciTech Connect

    Pevtsov, Alexei A.; Uitenbroek, Han; Bertello, Luca E-mail: huitenbroek@nso.edu

    2013-04-10

    We use daily observations of the Ca II K line profiles of the Sun-as-a-star taken with the Integrated Sunlight Spectrometer from 2006 December through 2011 July to deconvolve the contributions from the quiet (basal) chromosphere and with magnetic network/plage areas. The 0.5 A emission index computed from basal profiles shows a significantly reduced modulation (as compared with one derived from the observed profiles) corresponding to the Sun's rotation. For basal contribution of the Ca II K line, the peak in power spectrum corresponding to solar rotation is broad and not well defined. Power spectra for the plage contribution show two narrow well-defined peaks corresponding to solar rotation at two distinct latitudes, in agreement with the latitudinal distribution of activity on the Sun at the end of Cycle 23 and beginning of Cycle 24. We use the lack of a signature of solar rotation in the basal (quiet Sun) component as an indication of a successful removal of the active Sun (plage) component. Even though the contribution from solar activity is removed from the basal line profiles, we find a weak dependency of intensity in the line core (K3) of basal profiles with the phase of the solar cycle. Such dependency could be the result of changes in thermal properties of basal chromosphere with the solar cycle. As an alternative explanation, we also discuss a possibility that the basal component does not change with the phase of the solar cycle.

  13. Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Akiyama, Sachiko; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

  14. Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

    EPA Science Inventory

    Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

  15. The temperature of quiescent streamers during solar cycles 23 and 24

    SciTech Connect

    Landi, E.; Testa, P.

    2014-05-20

    Recent in-situ determinations of the temporal evolution of the charge state distribution in the fast and slow solar wind have shown a general decrease in the degree of ionization of all the elements in the solar wind along solar cycles 23 and 24. Such a decrease has been interpreted as a cooling of the solar corona which occurred during the decline and minimum phase of solar cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010. In the present work, we investigate whether spectroscopic determinations of the temperature of the quiescent streamers show signatures of coronal plasma cooling during cycles 23 and 24. We measure the coronal electron density and thermal structure at the base of 60 quiescent streamers observed from 1996 to 2013 by SOHO/SUMER and Hinode/EIS and find that both quantities do now show any significant dependence on the solar cycle. We argue that if the slow solar wind is accelerated from the solar photosphere or chromosphere, the measured decrease in the in-situ wind charge state distribution might be due to an increased efficiency in the wind acceleration mechanism at low altitudes. If the slow wind originates from the corona, a combination of density and wind acceleration changes may be responsible for the in-situ results.

  16. The Temperature of Quiescent Streamers during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landi, E.; Testa, P.

    2014-05-01

    Recent in-situ determinations of the temporal evolution of the charge state distribution in the fast and slow solar wind have shown a general decrease in the degree of ionization of all the elements in the solar wind along solar cycles 23 and 24. Such a decrease has been interpreted as a cooling of the solar corona which occurred during the decline and minimum phase of solar cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010. In the present work, we investigate whether spectroscopic determinations of the temperature of the quiescent streamers show signatures of coronal plasma cooling during cycles 23 and 24. We measure the coronal electron density and thermal structure at the base of 60 quiescent streamers observed from 1996 to 2013 by SOHO/SUMER and Hinode/EIS and find that both quantities do now show any significant dependence on the solar cycle. We argue that if the slow solar wind is accelerated from the solar photosphere or chromosphere, the measured decrease in the in-situ wind charge state distribution might be due to an increased efficiency in the wind acceleration mechanism at low altitudes. If the slow wind originates from the corona, a combination of density and wind acceleration changes may be responsible for the in-situ results.

  17. Radio range measurements of coronal electron densities at 13 and 3.6 centimeter wavelengths during the 1988 solar conjunction of Voyager 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krisher, T. P.; Anderson, J. D.; Morabito, D. D.; Asmar, S. W.; Borutzki, S. E.; Delitsky, M. L.; Densmore, A. C.; Eshe, P. M.; Lewis, G. D.; Maurer, M. J.; Roth, D. C.; Son, Y. H.; Spilker, T. R.; Sweetnam, D. N.; Taylor, A. H.; Tyler, G. L.; Gresh, D. L.; Rosen, P. A.

    1991-07-01

    Radio range measurements of total solar plasma delay obtained during the solar conjunction of the Voyager 2 spacecraft in December 1988, which occurred near solar maximum activity in the 11 yr cycle are reported. The radio range measurements were generated by the Deep Space Network at two wavelengths on the downlink from the spacecraft: 3.6 and 13 cm. A direct measurement of the integrated electron density along the ray path between the earth stations and the spacecraft was obtained by differencing the range at the two wavelengths. Coronal electron density profiles have been derived during ingress and egress of the ray path, which approached the sun to within 5 solar radii. At 10 solar radii, the derived density profiles yield 34079 + or - 611/cu cm on ingress and 49688 + or - 983/cu cm on egress. These density levels are significantly higher than observed near previous solar maxima.

  18. On the Variation of Solar Radius in Rotation Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Z. N.; Kong, D. F.; Xiang, N. B.; Feng, W.

    2015-01-01

    The Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform and CLEANest algorithm are used to study the temporal variations of the solar radius observed at Rio de Janeiro Observatory from 1998 March 2 to 2009 November 6. The CLEANest spectra show several significant periodicities around 400, 312, 93.5, 86.2, 79.4, 70.9, 53.2, and 26.3 days. Then, combining the data on the daily solar radius measured at Calern Observatory and Rio de Janeiro Observatory and the corresponding daily sunspot areas, we study the short-term periodicity of the solar radius and the role of magnetic field in the variation of the solar radius. The rotation period of the daily solar radius is determined to be statistically significant. Moreover, its temporal evolution is anti-phase with that of sunspot activity, and it is found anti-phase with solar activity. Generally, the stronger solar activity is, the more obvious is the anti-phase relation of radius with solar activity. This indicates that strong magnetic fields have a greater inhibitive effect than weak magnetic fields on the variation of the radius.

  19. ON THE VARIATION OF SOLAR RADIUS IN ROTATION CYCLES

    SciTech Connect

    Qu, Z. N.; Kong, D. F.; Xiang, N. B.; Feng, W.

    2015-01-10

    The Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform and CLEANest algorithm are used to study the temporal variations of the solar radius observed at Rio de Janeiro Observatory from 1998 March 2 to 2009 November 6. The CLEANest spectra show several significant periodicities around 400, 312, 93.5, 86.2, 79.4, 70.9, 53.2, and 26.3 days. Then, combining the data on the daily solar radius measured at Calern Observatory and Rio de Janeiro Observatory and the corresponding daily sunspot areas, we study the short-term periodicity of the solar radius and the role of magnetic field in the variation of the solar radius. The rotation period of the daily solar radius is determined to be statistically significant. Moreover, its temporal evolution is anti-phase with that of sunspot activity, and it is found anti-phase with solar activity. Generally, the stronger solar activity is, the more obvious is the anti-phase relation of radius with solar activity. This indicates that strong magnetic fields have a greater inhibitive effect than weak magnetic fields on the variation of the radius.

  20. Prediction of solar magnetic field at solar cycle 24/25 minimum based on current trends of dipole and quadrupole components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, B.; Oh, S.; Yi, Y.

    2012-12-01

    During the recent Solar Cycles (SCs), solar activity parameters such as the total solar irradiance, interplanetary magnetic field and solar polar magnetic field get weakened. The length of solar cycle from SC 23 to SC 24 becomes much longer than previous solar cycles. The polarity of solar magnetic field is of not only dipole but also sum of multipoles such as the quadrupole and so on. In this study, we analyze the magnitude of harmonic function coefficients and the variation of dipole and multipole components provided by Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). As a result, the magnitude of total solar magnetic field shows a significant decrease since SC 23. The decrease rate of dipole is larger than that of multipole during the SC 23. It means that the dipole component gets weaker and the multipole one getse stronger in SC 23 compared with SCs 21 and 22. Thus, the multipole component is important factor in determining the solar activity. In general, the dipole component is weak at the solar maximum period and strong at the solar minimum period. The composition ratio of multipole component, particularly quadrupole increases at the solar minimum of SC 23/24. If the solar activity is low such as the solar cycle 23/24 minimum, the quadrupole component may show the relative increase. Therefore, we can predict that the solar activity will be further weaker at next solar minimum of SC 24/25 and the quadrupole component may show the remarkable increase.

  1. Properties of the suprathermal heavy ion population near 1 AU during solar cycles 23 and 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayeh, Maher A.; Desai, Mihir I.; Ebert, Robert W.; Mason, Glenn M.

    2016-03-01

    Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/ULEIS) near 1 AU, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during interplanetary quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2014 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ˜0.11 and ˜1.28 MeV nucleon-1. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following: (1) The number of quiet-hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 90% of the time; (2) The composition of the quiet-time suprathermal heavy ion population (3He, C-through-O, and Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum; (3) The heavy ion spectra at ˜0.11-0.32 MeV nucleon-1 exhibit suprathermal tails with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.4 to 2.7. (4) Fe spectral indices get softer (steeper) from solar minimum of cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 maximum. These results imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ˜0.1 MeV nucleon-1, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events.

  2. Solar cycle variations in the neutral exosphere inferred from the location of the Venus bow shock

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, C. T.; Chou, E.; Luhmann, J. G.; Brace, L. H.

    1990-01-01

    Solar UV and EUV varies significantly during the solar cycle. Pioneer Venus can measure this variation both directly and indirectly. A direct measure of the EUV is obtained from the photoelectron current of the Langmuir probe when the spacecraft is in the solar wind. The indirect measure is by monitoring the location of the Venus bow shock. The UV and EUV both heat the upper atmosphere and ionize it. When solar activity is high, the upper atmosphere should be ionized more rapidly. This effect adds a greater number of planetary ions to the magnetosheath plasma as it flows by Venus. It is this increase in mass flow that causes the Venus bow shock to move away from its solar minimum location. Pioneer Venus has now monitored the location of the bow shock for an entire solar cycle. The bow shock location is well correlated with the variation in EUV flux as measured by the Langmuir probe. The bow shock is farther from Venus than expected from the sunspot number or 10.7 cm solar radio flux, indicating that solar UV radiation may be even stronger at the present time than would be predicted from the relationships determined during the previous solar cycle.

  3. The role of ozone feedback in modulating the atmospheric response to the solar cycle forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarz, Ewa; Maycock, Amanda; Braesicke, Peter; Telford, Paul; Abraham, Luke; Pyle, John

    2016-04-01

    The irradiance changes between the 11-year solar cycle maximum and minimum lead to increased stratospheric temperatures via enhanced UV absorption by ozone. This direct radiative response is strengthened by increased photochemical ozone production. While in reality these two processes are closely coupled, not all global climate models include interactive chemistry and may not therefore represent the solar-ozone feedback in an internally consistent manner. This study investigates the role of the representation of ozone for the modeled solar cycle response. We use a version of the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. We perform a 64-year perpetual solar minimum integration with non-interactive treatment of ozone, i.e. where ozone is externally prescribed for the radiative calculations. This is complemented with two analogous non-interactive solar maximum integrations that include an increase in solar irradiance, but which differ in their representation of the solar ozone response. We show that the representation of the solar-ozone feedback has a first-order impact on the simulated yearly mean short wave heating rates and temperature responses to the 11-year solar cycle forcing. However, despite the substantial differences in the tropical temperature changes, the Northern Hemisphere high latitude circulation responses are broadly similar in both experiments, and show strengthening of the polar vortex during winter and a weakening in March. Therefore, the representation of the prescribed solar-ozone response appears unlikely to explain the substantial spread in the solar cycle dynamical responses in different models. Lastly, we compare these results with an analogous solar maximum/minimum pair in which ozone is calculated by the photochemical scheme in a self-consistent manner. We show that the use of interactive vs non-interactive treatment of ozone does not strongly affect the yearly mean tropical temperature response. However, the results suggest potential differences

  4. Understanding the 11-year Solar Cycle Signal in Stratospheric Ozone using a 3D CTM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhomse, Sandip; Chipperfield, Martyn; Feng, Wuhu

    2014-05-01

    The exact structure of the 11-year solar cycle signal in stratospheric ozone is still an open scientific question. Long-term satellite data such as Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) show a positive solar response in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (US/LM), but a negligible signal in the tropical middle stratosphere. On the other hand, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) measurements show a positive signal in the lower and middle stratosphere and smaller solar signal in the tropical US/LM. Currently most chemical models are able to simulate a "double-peak"-structured solar signal but the model simulated solar signals tend to show better agreement with the HALOE-derived solar signal than those from SBUV or SAGE measurements. Also, some recent studies argue that due to the significantly different solar variability during the recent solar cycle (23), the solar signal in the US/LM ozone is negative (out of phase with total solar irradiance changes) for this later period compared to previous solar cycles. We have used 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to better understand the possible mechanisms responsible for this discrepancy. Various model simulations have been performed for 1979-2012 time period using ERA-Interim meteorological fields as a dynamical forcing. Model output is sampled at collocated measurement points for three satellite instruments performing stratospheric ozone measurements using the solar occultation technique: SAGE II (1984-2005), HALOE (1992-2005) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE, 2003-present). Overall the modelled ozone shows good agreement with all the data sets. However, in the US/LM, modelled ozone anomalies are better correlated with HALOE and ACE than SAGE II measurements. Hence the modelled solar signal in the stratospheric and lower mesospheric ozone also shows better agreement with the solar signal derived using HALOE and

  5. Principal Component Analysis of Solar Background and Sunspot Magnetic Field in cycles 21-24 and its implications for the solar activity prediction in cycles 25-27

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, Valentina; Popova, Helen; Zharkov, Sergei; Shepherd, Simon

    Principle component analysis (PCA) of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) measured from Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) and sunspot magnetic field (SMF) measured by SOHO/MDI magnetograms reveals the two principal components (PCs) of waves travelling in time. In addition, the independent components analysis helps to uncover 8 pairs of SBMF waves in latitudes: two large symmetric magnetic waves , which are the same for all cycles 21-23, and three pairs of asymmetric magnetic waves, which are unique for each cycle. In each pair the waves travel slightly off phase with different phase shift for each cycle and have a different number of equator crossings (Zharkova et al, 2012). These SBMF variations are assumed to be those of poloidal magnetic field traveling slightly off-phase from pole to pole which are caused by a joint action of dipole and quadruple magnetic sources in the Sun. The simulations with the two layer Parker's dynamo model with meridional circulation revealed that the dominant pair of PCs can be produced by a magnetic dipole accounting for the two main dynamo waves operating between the two magnetic poles. The further three pairs of the waves are unique to each cycle and associated with the multiple magnetic sources in the solar interior: with a quadruple symmetry in both layers for cycle 21, with quadruple magnetic sources in the upper layer and dipole sources in the inner layer for cycle 22 and with the quadruple magnetic sources in the inner layer and the dipole sources in the upper layer for cycle 23 (Popova et al, 2013). The PCs derived for all three cycles from SMBF were used as a training set for the magnetic wave prediction for the cycles 24-27 by using Hamiltonian approach (Shepherd and Zharkova, 2014) and verifying by the SBMF observations in the current cycle 24. The prediction results indicate that the solar activity is defined mainly by the solar background magnetic fields while the sunspots and their magnetic fields seem to be

  6. Properties of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Pulses at 1 AU during the Deep Minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Y. Q.; Zuo, P. B.; Feng, X. S.; Zhang, Y.

    2015-06-01

    Observations during the deep solar minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 offer an opportunity for characterizing the nature of solar wind dynamic pressure pulses (DPPs) under extreme solar activity. In this study, we identify 226 DPPs from July 2008 to June 2009 using an automatic detection algorithm based on high-resolution plasma data from the Wind spacecraft to investigate the features of DPPs during the deep solar minimum. For comparison, the similarities and differences of the statistical characteristics of the DPPs during the deep solar minimum and during the previous solar minimum are also examined. It is found that the number and the occurrence rate of DPPs during the deep solar minimum are only about one-third of those during the previous minimum, which may be attributed to lower solar wind dynamic pressure and weaker dynamic pressure fluctuations. From a statistical perspective, however, no obvious difference is apparent between the other basic DPP properties in the two solar minima, such as the absolute and relative amplitude of the dynamic pressure changes and the durations of the transition regions of DPPs. Other basic properties of the DPPs during the deep solar minimum are as follows: 1) the distribution of the absolute value of the dynamic pressure amplitude change peaks at 1.0 - 1.5 nPa, 2) the most probable relative pressure changes are 0.2 - 0.8, 3) DPP durations are broad-peaked between 150 s and 210 s with a mean of about 171 s, 4) 76.7 % of the DPPs can be considered as pressure balance structures, 5) dynamic pressure changes across DPPs are dominated by density changes, 6) specially, during the deep solar minimum, a considerable portion of DPPs, 86.7 %, are associated with large-scale solar wind transients such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and stream interaction regions (SIRs).

  7. HMI Observations of Solar Flares in Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoeksema, J. Todd; Bobra, Monica; Couvidat, Sebastien; Sun, Xudong

    2015-08-01

    The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has continuously measured the vector magnetic field, intensity, and Doppler velocity in solar flares and over the entire solar disk since May 2010. The regular cadence of 45 seconds for line-of-sight and 12 minutes for vector measurements enables reliable investigations of photospheric conditions before, during, and after events both locally and globally. Active region indices can be tracked and conditions in the overlying corona can be modeled. A few examples show the utility of the data and demonstrate that some care must be exercised when the HMI data are used to investigate time variations.

  8. Martian induced magnetosphere variations with solar activity cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fedorov, Andrey; Ronan, Modolo; Jarninen, Riku; Mazelle, Christian; Barabash, Stas

    2014-05-01

    During the last 6 years of ESA Mars Express mission we have accumulated plasma data taken inside and around the Martian induced magnetosphere corresponding to the increasing branch of solar activity. This data allows to make an enhanced study of the magnetosphere variations as a response of the solar activity level. Since Mars Express has no onboard magnetometer, we used the hybrid models of the Martian plasma environment to get a proper frame to make an adequate statistics of the magnetospheric response. In this paper we present a spatial distribution of the planetary plasma in the planetary wake as well as the ionsospheric escape as a function of the solar activity.

  9. IMP 8 GME Particle Observations Over Three Solar Cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, Ian; Cane, Hilary; Von Rosenvinge, Tycho; McGuire, Robert

    2007-01-01

    The Goddard Medium Energy experiment on the IMP 8 spacecraft has made nearly continuous observations of the near-Earth energetic particle environment from its launch in October, 1973 until near present. We summarize several aspects of these observations, including solar energetic particle events, CIR-associated events, and cosmic ray modulations. In particular, we note that, as expected fiom the pattern of smaller recurrent (27 day) cosmic ray modulations seen in the mid 1980's A less than 0 solar minimum compared to the previous and following (A greater than 0) minima, recurrent modulations are again reduced in the current solar minimum.

  10. Solar cycle variations in the ionosphere of Mars as seen by multiple Mars Express data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez-Cano, B.; Lester, M.; Witasse, O.; Milan, S. E.; Hall, B. E. S.; Cartacci, M.; Peter, K.; Morgan, D. D.; Blelly, P.-L.; Radicella, S.; Cicchetti, A.; Noschese, R.; Orosei, R.; Pätzold, M.

    2016-03-01

    The response of the Martian ionosphere to solar activity is analyzed by taking into account variations in a range of parameters during four phases of the solar cycle throughout 2005-2012. Multiple Mars Express data sets have been used (such as Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) in Active Ionospheric Sounding, MARSIS subsurface, and MaRS Radio Science), which currently cover more than 10 years of solar activity. The topside of the main ionospheric layer behavior is empirically modeled through the neutral scale height parameter, which describes the density distribution in altitude, and can be used as a dynamic monitor of the solar wind-Martian plasma interaction, as well as of the medium's temperature. The main peak, the total electron content, and the relationship between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the maximum thermal pressure of the ionosphere with the solar cycle are assessed. We conclude that the neutral scale height was different in each phase of the solar cycle, having a large variation with solar zenith angle during the moderate-ascending and high phases, while there is almost no variation during the moderate-descending and low phases. Between end-2007 and end-2009, an almost permanent absence of secondary layer resulted because of the low level of solar X-rays. Also, the ionosphere was more likely to be found in a more continuously magnetized state. The induced magnetic field from the solar wind, even if weak, could be strong enough to penetrate more than at other solar cycle phases.

  11. Galactic cosmic ray radiation hazard in the unusual extended solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwadron, N. A.; Boyd, A. J.; Kozarev, K.; Golightly, M.; Spence, H.; Townsend, L. W.; Owens, M.

    2010-05-01

    Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are extremely difficult to shield against and pose one of the most severe long-term hazards for human exploration of space. The recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 shows a prolonged period of reduced solar activity and low interplanetary magnetic field strengths. As a result, the modulation of GCRs is very weak, and the fluxes of GCRs are near their highest levels in the last 25 years in the fall of 2009. Here we explore the dose rates of GCRs in the current prolonged solar minimum and make predictions for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER), which is now measuring GCRs in the lunar environment. Our results confirm the weak modulation of GCRs leading to the largest dose rates seen in the last 25 years over a prolonged period of little solar activity.

  12. A search for the solar roots of the most disturbed interplanetary field intervals of solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luhmann, J. G.; Russell, C. T.; Barnes, A.

    1989-01-01

    During the course of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter mission, fairly continuous interplanetary plasma and magnetic field data were obtained which span the interval from prior to the last solar maximum to the current solar minimum recovery. Within this nearly complete solar cycle interval, several periods of exceptional disturbance of the interplanetary field stand out. The available solar data have been examined to determine what features, if any, distinguish these periods. Neither flare nor coronal mass ejection reports show particularly unusual behavior. However, these periods appear to occur in conjunction with marked changes in the interplanetary sector structure. This suggests that heliospheric current sheet reconfiguration is an indicator of the level of interplanetary disturbance distinct from the more traditional solar activity data.

  13. Solar Dynamo and the Sunspot Cycle: Current Status and Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nandi, Dibyendu

    2016-07-01

    Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions on the Sun's surface that have been observed for over four centuries. The number of sunspots on the solar surface waxes and wanes with an average periodicity of eleven years. The amplitude of this cycle varies and this variation governs the frequency of occurrence of solar storms, solar radiative and particulate output and the heliospheric open flux. This magnetically modulated solar activity variation has consequences for the environment of planets such as the Earth and our space and ground-based technologies. The origin of solar magnetism and its evolution is governed by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism that relies on interactions between plasma flows and magnetic fields in the Sun's interior. In this talk I will review our current understanding of the solar dynamo mechanism, highlight outstanding issues and discuss future prospects laying particular emphasis on solar activity predictions.

  14. Global distribution of the solar wind and its evolution during cycles 22-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokumaru, M.; Fujiki, K.; Kojima, M.; Iju, T.; Nakano, H.; Satonaka, D.; Shimoyama, T.; Hakamada, K.

    2016-03-01

    Ground-based observations of the solar wind using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) have been regularly performed since 1980s at the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory of Nagoya University using the 327-MHz multi-station system. It has been revealed from the IPS observations that the global distribution of the solar wind is well ordered by the Sun's magnetic field. This fact suggests that the magnetic field plays an important role in the formation of the solar wind. The IPS observations evidently demonstrate that global distribution of the solar wind systematically changes with the solar activity. Recently, some peculiar aspects of the solar wind have been found from the IPS observations; e.g. increase of low-latitude fast winds, global reduction of the fast wind area and the density fluctuation level, North-South asymmetry of polar fast winds. These are considered as a manifestation of weaker dynamo activity in this cycle.

  15. Estimates of the neutron emission during large solar flares in the rising and maximum period of solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez, D.; Matsubara, Y.; Muraki, Y.; Sako, T.; Valdés-Galicia, J. F.

    2016-03-01

    We searched for solar neutrons using the data collected by six detectors from the International Network of Solar Neutron Telescopes and one Neutron Monitor between January 2010 and December 2014. We considered the peak time of the X-ray intensity of thirty five ≥ X1.0 class flares detected by GOES satellite as the most probable production time of solar neutrons. We prepared a light-curve of the solar neutron telescopes and the neutron monitor for each flare, spanning ± 3 h from the peak time of GOES. Based on these light curves, we performed a statistical analysis for each flare. Setting a significance level at greater than 3σ, we report that no statistically significant signals due to solar neutrons were found. Therefore, upper limits are determined by the background level and solar angle of these thirty five solar flares. Our calculation assumed a power-law neutron energy spectrum and an impulsive emission profile at the Sun. The estimated upper limits of the neutron emission are consistent within the order of magnitude of the successful detections of solar neutrons made in solar cycle 23.

  16. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

    2015-09-01

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  17. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    SciTech Connect

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

    2015-09-30

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  18. Flip-flop cycles in solar and stellar activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berdyugina, S. V.

    2006-08-01

    Doppler images and long time series of photometric observations of cool active stars reveal permanent active longitudes on their surfaces. They are found to alternate their dominant activity quasi-periodically which indicates a new type of the activity cycles, flip-flop cycles. In this talk I will review properties of active longitudes and flip-flop cycles on different types of active stars including the Sun.

  19. Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Dasi-Espuig, M.; Balmaceda, L. A.; DeLuca, E. E.

    2013-07-01

    In the simplest of forms, modern dynamo theory describes the solar cycle as a process that takes the solar magnetic field (back and forth) from a configuration that is predominantly poloidal (contained inside the meridional plane), to one predominantly toroidal (wrapped around the axis of rotation). However, there is still uncertainty and controversy in the detailed understanding of this process. A major contributor to this uncertainty is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (an issue mainly affecting the poloidal component of the solar magnetic field). In this talk we will review the different observations that can be used as proxies for the solar magnetic field (in absence of direct magnetic observations). I will present a recently standardized database that can be used as a proxy for the evolution of the polar magnetic field. And to conclude, I will show the insights that can be gained (by taking advantage of this database) in the context of the transition between the toroidal and poloidal phases of the cycle, solar cycle memory as determined by the different mechanisms of flux transport, and the practical goal of solar cycle prediction.

  20. Technology for Bayton-cycle powerplants using solar and nuclear energy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, R. E.

    1986-01-01

    Brayton cycle gas turbines have the potential to use either solar heat or nuclear reactors for generating from tens of kilowatts to tens of megawatts of power in space, all this from a single technology for the power generating system. Their development for solar energy dynamic power generation for the space station could be the first step in an evolution of such powerplants for a very wide range of applications. At the low power level of only 10 kWe, a power generating system has already demonstrated overall efficiency of 0.29 and operated 38 000 hr. Tests of improved components show that these components would raise that efficiency to 0.32, a value twice that demonstrated by any alternate concept. Because of this high efficiency, solar Brayton cycle power generators offer the potential to increase power per unit of solar collector area to levels exceeding four times that from photovoltaic powerplants using present technology for silicon solar cells. The technologies for solar mirrors and heat receivers are reviewed and assessed. This Brayton technology for solar powerplants is equally suitable for use with the nuclear reactors. The available long time creep data on the tantalum alloy ASTAR-811C show that such Brayton cycles can evolve to cycle peak temperatures of 1500 K (2240 F). And this same technology can be extended to generate 10 to 100 MW in space by exploiting existing technology for terrestrial gas turbines in the fields of both aircraft propulsion and stationary power generation.

  1. Solar-cycle variations of large frequency separations of acoustic modes: implications for asteroseismology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broomhall, A.-M.; Chaplin, W. J.; Elsworth, Y.; New, R.

    2011-06-01

    We have studied solar-cycle changes in the large frequency separations that can be observed in Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network (BiSON) data. The large frequency separation is often one of the first outputs from asteroseismic studies because it can help constrain stellar properties like mass and radius. We have used three methods for estimating the large separations: use of individual p-mode frequencies, computation of the autocorrelation of frequency-power spectra, and computation of the power spectrum of the power spectrum. The values of the large separations obtained by the different methods are offset from each other and have differing sensitivities to the realization noise. A simple model was used to predict solar-cycle variations in the large separations, indicating that the variations are due to the well-known solar-cycle changes to mode frequency. However, this model is only valid over a restricted frequency range. We discuss the implications of these results for asteroseismology.

  2. Evidence for climate variations induced by the 11-year solar and cosmic rays cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruckman, William; Ramos, Elio

    2010-02-01

    We analyzed data from PSMSL monthly mean sea level seeking correlations between sea level fluctuations and the solar and cosmic rays 11 year cycle. The data reveals decadal variability that could be causally connected to the solar and cosmic rays cycle, since these periodic changes are correlated. It is also found that the solar (cosmic rays) cycle correlates (anti-correlates) with the mean global surface temperature anomaly. A probable explanation of the above correlations is that the solar intensity and cosmic rays variations induce oscillations in the average temperature and precipitation, with corresponding changes in the continental water and snow accumulation. Thus, for instance, a higher than average snow and water over land, and lower temperatures produce oceans thermal contraction and lower mass, implicating lower mean sea level.

  3. Comparing the solar magnetic field in the corona and in the inner heliosphere during solar cycles 21-23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

    2009-04-01

    We compare the open solar magnetic field estimated by the PFSS model based on the WSO photospheric field observations, with the inner heliospheric magnetic field. We trace the observed radial HMF into the coronal PFSS boundary at 2.5 solar radii using the observed solar wind velocity, and determine the PFSS model field at the line-of-sight footpoint. Comparing the two field values, we calculate the power n of the apparent decrease of the radial field. According to expectations based on Maxwell's equations, also reproduced by Parker's HMF model, the radial HMF field should decrease with n=2. However, comparison gives considerably lower values of n, indicating the effect of HCS in the PFSS model and the possible superexpansion. The n values vary with solar cycle, being roughly 1.3-1.4 at minima and about 1.7 at maxima. Interestingly, the n values for the two HMF sectors show systematic differences in the late declining to minimum phase, with smaller n values for the HMF sector dominant in the northern hemisphere. This is in agreement with the smaller field value in the northern hemisphere and the southward shifted HCS, summarized by the concept of the bashful ballerina. We also find that the values of n during the recent years, in the late declining phase of solar cycle 23, are significantly larger than during the same phase of the previous cycles. This agrees with the exceptionally large tilt of the solar dipole at the end of cycle 23. We also find that the bashful ballerina appears even during SC 23 but the related hemispheric differences are smaller than during the previous cycles.

  4. Porcupine feeding scars and climatic data show ecosystem effects of the solar cycle.

    PubMed

    Klvana, Ilya; Berteaux, Dominique; Cazelles, Bernard

    2004-09-01

    Using North American porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum) feeding scars on trees as an index of past porcupine abundance, we have found that porcupine populations have fluctuated regularly over the past 130 years in the Bas St. Laurent region of eastern Quebec, with superimposed periodicities of 11 and 22 years. Coherency and phase analyses showed that this porcupine population cycle has closely followed the 11- and 22-year solar activity cycles. Fluctuations in local precipitation and temperature were also cyclic and closely related to both the solar cycle and the porcupine cycle. Our results suggest that the solar cycle indirectly sets the rhythm of population fluctuations of the most abundant vertebrate herbivore in the ecosystem we studied. We hypothesize that the solar cycle has sufficiently important effects on the climate along the southern shore of the St. Lawrence estuary to locally influence terrestrial ecosystem functioning. This constitutes strong evidence for the possibility of a causal link between solar variability and terrestrial ecology at the decadal timescale and local spatial scale, which confirms results obtained at greater temporal and spatial scales. PMID:15478085

  5. Performance analysis of a solar-powered organic rankine cycle engine.

    PubMed

    Bryszewska-Mazurek, Anna; Swieboda, Tymoteusz; Mazurek, Wojciech

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the performance analysis of a power plant with the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC). The power plant is supplied by thermal energy utilized from a solar energy collector. R245fa was the working fluid in the thermodynamic cycle. The organic cycle with heat regeneration was built and tested experimentally. The ORC with a heat regenerator obtained the maximum thermodynamic efficiency of approximately 9%. PMID:21305882

  6. EVOLUTION OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN HELIUM ABUNDANCE, MINOR ION CHARGE STATE, AND SOLAR WIND SPEED OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE

    SciTech Connect

    Kasper, J. C.; Stevens, M. L.; Korreck, K. E.; Maruca, B. A.; Kiefer, K. K.; Schwadron, N. A.; Lepri, S. T.

    2012-02-01

    The changing relationships between solar wind speed, helium abundance, and minor ion charge state are examined over solar cycle 23. Observations of the abundance of helium relative to hydrogen (A{sub He} {identical_to} 100 Multiplication-Sign n{sub He}/n{sub H}) by the Wind spacecraft are used to examine the dependence of A{sub He} on solar wind speed and solar activity between 1994 and 2010. This work updates an earlier study of A{sub He} from 1994 to 2004 to include the recent extreme solar minimum and broadly confirms our previous result that A{sub He} in slow wind is strongly correlated with sunspot number, reaching its lowest values in each solar minima. During the last minimum, as sunspot numbers reached their lowest levels in recent history, A{sub He} continued to decrease, falling to half the levels observed in slow wind during the previous minimum and, for the first time observed, decreasing even in the fastest solar wind. We have also extended our previous analysis by adding measurements of the mean carbon and oxygen charge states observed with the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft since 1998. We find that as solar activity decreased, the mean charge states of oxygen and carbon for solar wind of a given speed also fell, implying that the wind was formed in cooler regions in the corona during the recent solar minimum. The physical processes in the coronal responsible for establishing the mean charge state and speed of the solar wind have evolved with solar activity and time.

  7. Extremely low geomagnetic activity during the recent deep solar cycle minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Echer, E.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    2012-07-01

    The recent solar minimum (2008-2009) was extreme in several aspects: the sunspot number, R z , interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude B o and solar wind speed V sw were the lowest during the space era. Furthermore, the variance of the IMF southward B z component was low. As a consequence of these exceedingly low solar wind parameters, there was a minimum in the energy transfer from solar wind to the magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic activity ap index reached extremely low levels. The minimum in geomagnetic activity was delayed in relation to sunspot cycle minimum. We compare the solar wind and geomagnetic activity observed in this recent minimum with previous solar cycle values during the space era (1964-2010). Moreover, the geomagnetic activity conditions during the current minimum are compared with long term variability during the period of available geomagnetic observations. The extremely low geomagnetic activity observed in this solar minimum was previously recorded only at the end of XIX century and at the beginning of the XX century, and this might be related to the Gleissberg (80-100 years) solar cycle.

  8. An investigation of the solar cycle response of odd-nitrogen in the thermosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rusch, David W.; Solomon, Stanley C.

    1992-01-01

    This annual report covers the first year of funding for the study of the solar cycle variations of odd-nitrogen (N((sup 2)D), N((sup 4)S), NO) in the Earth's thermosphere. The study uses the extensive data base generated by the Atmosphere Explorer (AE) satellites, and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer Satellite. The AE data are being used, for the first time, to define the solar variability effect on the odd-nitrogen species through analysis of the emissions at 520 nano-m from N((sup 2)D) and the emission from O(+)((sup 2)P). Additional AE neutral and ion density data are used to help define and quantify the physical processes controlling the variations. The results from the airglow study will be used in the next two years of this study to explain the solar cycle changes in NO measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer.

  9. Solar cycle study of interplanetary Lyman-alpha variations - Pioneer Venus Orbiter sky background results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ajello, J. M.; Stewart, A. I.; Thomas, G. E.; Graps, A.

    1987-01-01

    PVO observations of the interplanetary Ly-alpha (IPL) background, obtained over an entire solar cycle (SC) from 1979 to 1985, are compiled and analyzed statistically, along with data from other instruments and earlier solar cycles. The results are presented in extensive tables and graphs and characterized in detail. Findings reported include SC variation of 1.8 for the longitudinally averaged IPL intensity (in agreement with the variation of the 27-d disk-averaged integrated solar Ly-alpha flux), yearly averaged ecliptic H-atom lifetime at 1 AU equal to 1.0 Ms at solar minimum and 1.5 Ms at solar maximum, interplanetary H density equal to 0.07 + or - 0.01/cu cm, and interplanetary H/He within the heliopause but far from the sun of 7 + or - 3.

  10. Evidence for Luni - Solar mn and Solar Cycle sc Signals in Australian Rainfall Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Currie, Robert G.; Vines, Robert G.

    1996-11-01

    Spectrum analysis of 308 yearly sampled Australian rainfall series yields evidence for two terms with periods 18.3 +/- 1.8 and 10.5 +/-0.7 years in 270 and 182 instances, respectively. The long-period term is statistically significant at a confidence level of 99.9 per cent. They are identified as the 18.6-year luni-solar Mn and 10-11-year solar cycle Sc signals previously reported in other climate data such as American and South African rainfall, tree-rings world-wide, rainfall indices, air temperature world-wide, air pressure world-wide, sea-level world-wide, river flow, American crop yields and livestock/poultry production, European fish catches and dates of wine harvest, varves, thunderstorm occurrence, Earth rotation, and volcanic eruptions. In eastern Australia, Mn wave minima were in phase with epochs 1880.3 and 1898.9 (epochs are dates of maxima in tidal forcing). At mid-epoch 1908.2, epoch 1917.5, and mid-epoch 1926.8 virtually all luni-solar wavetrains experienced a 180° change in phase. Thus, by 1936.1 virtually all the waves were out of phase with the epoch, a correlation that continued at epochs 1954.7 and 1973.3. An entirely analogous phenomenon occurred in USA rainfall data, but it occurred in the third quarter of our century. The contribution of the Mn and Sc signals to total variance in the raw data is on average 19 per cent. This is of course highly unrealistic - and when the power in the raw data from 8 to 2 years is filtered out prior to analysis, and the variance contribution of the signals to filtered data compared over a common frequency interval (periods 30 to 8 years), their variance contribution increases dramatically to a mean of 89 per cent. Currie carried out similar analyses for six sets of climate data comprising over 3200 records and found the mean variance contribution of signals to filtered data over a common bandwidth varied from 67 to 81 per cent. Thus, the spectrum of climate at decadal and duo- decadal periods is strongly

  11. NV Energy Solar Integration Study: Cycling and Movements of Conventional Generators for Balancing Services

    SciTech Connect

    Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Makarov, Yuri V.; Guo, Xinxin

    2011-07-01

    With an increasing penetration level of solar power in the southern Nevada system, the impact of solar on system operations needs to be carefully studied from various perspectives. Qualitatively, it is expected that the balancing requirements to compensate for solar power variability will be larger in magnitude; meanwhile, generators providing load following and regulation services will be moved up or down more frequently. One of the most important tasks is to quantitatively evaluate the cycling and movements of conventional generators with solar power at different penetration levels. This study is focused on developing effective methodologies for this goal and providing a basis for evaluating the wear and tear of the conventional generators

  12. Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

    2015-04-01

    The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

  13. Rieger-type Periodicity during Solar Cycles 14–24: Estimation of Dynamo Magnetic Field Strength in the Solar Interior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis; Ramishvili, Giorgi; Shergelashvili, Bidzina; Hanslmeier, Arnold; Poedts, Stefaan

    2016-07-01

    Solar activity undergoes a variation over timescales of several months known as Rieger-type periodicity, which usually occurs near maxima of sunspot cycles. An early analysis showed that the periodicity appears only in some cycles and is absent in other cycles. But the appearance/absence during different cycles has not been explained. We performed a wavelet analysis of sunspot data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory and the Royal Observatory of Belgium during cycles 14–24. We found that the Rieger-type periods occur in all cycles, but they are cycle dependent: shorter periods occur during stronger cycles. Our analysis revealed a periodicity of 185–195 days during the weak cycles 14–15 and 24 and a periodicity of 155–165 days during the stronger cycles 16–23. We derived the dispersion relation of the spherical harmonics of the magnetic Rossby waves in the presence of differential rotation and a toroidal magnetic field in the dynamo layer near the base of the convection zone. This showed that the harmonics of fast Rossby waves with m = 1 and n = 4, where m (n) indicates the toroidal (poloidal) wavenumbers, perfectly fit with the observed periodicity. The variation of the toroidal field strength from weaker to stronger cycles may lead to the different periods found in those cycles, which explains the observed enigmatic feature of the Rieger-type periodicity. Finally, we used the observed periodicity to estimate the dynamo field strength during cycles 14–24. Our estimations suggest a field strength of ∼40 kG for the stronger cycles and ∼20 kG for the weaker cycles.

  14. Contextualizing Solar Cycle 24: Report on the Development of a Homogenous Database of Bipolar Active Regions Spanning Four Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Werginz, Z. A.; DeLuca, M. D.; Vargas-Acosta, J. P.; Longcope, D. W.; Harvey, J. W.; Martens, P.; Zhang, J.; Vargas-Dominguez, S.; DeForest, C. E.; Lamb, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    The solar cycle can be understood as a process that alternates the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun between poloidal and toroidal configurations. Although the process that transitions the solar cycle between toroidal and poloidal phases is still not fully understood, theoretical studies, and observational evidence, suggest that this process is driven by the emergence and decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) at the photosphere. Furthermore, the emergence of BMRs at the photosphere is the main driver behind solar variability and solar activity in general; making the study of their properties doubly important for heliospheric physics. However, in spite of their critical role, there is still no unified catalog of BMRs spanning multiple instruments and covering the entire period of systematic measurement of the solar magnetic field (i.e. 1975 to present).In this presentation we discuss an ongoing project to address this deficiency by applying our Bipolar Active Region Detection (BARD) code on full disk magnetograms measured by the 512 (1975-1993) and SPMG (1992-2003) instruments at the Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope (KPVT), SOHO/MDI (1996-2011) and SDO/HMI (2010-present). First we will discuss the results of our revitalization of 512 and SPMG KPVT data, then we will discuss how our BARD code operates, and finally report the results of our cross-callibration.The corrected and improved KPVT magnetograms will be made available through the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and Virtual Solar Observatory (VSO), including updated synoptic maps produced by running the corrected KPVT magnetograms though the SOLIS pipeline. The homogeneous active region database will be made public by the end of 2017 once it has reached a satisfactory level of quality and maturity. The Figure shows all bipolar active regions present in our database (as of Aug 2015) colored according to the sign of their leading polarity. Marker size is indicative of the total active region flux. Anti

  15. SOLAR CYCLE VARIATIONS OF THE RADIO BRIGHTNESS OF THE SOLAR POLAR REGIONS AS OBSERVED BY THE NOBEYAMA RADIOHELIOGRAPH

    SciTech Connect

    Nitta, Nariaki V.; DeRosa, Marc L.

    2014-01-10

    We have analyzed daily microwave images of the Sun at 17 GHz obtained with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH) in order to study the solar cycle variations of the enhanced brightness in the polar regions. Unlike in previous works, the averaged brightness of the polar regions is obtained from individual images rather than from synoptic maps. We confirm that the brightness is anti-correlated with the solar cycle and that it has generally declined since solar cycle 22. Including images up to 2013 October, we find that the 17 GHz brightness temperature of the south polar region has decreased noticeably since 2012. This coincides with a significant decrease in the average magnetic field strength around the south pole, signaling the arrival of solar maximum conditions in the southern hemisphere more than a year after the northern hemisphere. We do not attribute the enhanced brightness of the polar regions at 17 GHz to the bright compact sources that occasionally appear in synthesized NoRH images. This is because they have no correspondence with small-scale bright regions in images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory with a broad temperature coverage. Higher-quality radio images are needed to understand the relationship between microwave brightness and magnetic field strength in the polar regions.

  16. Photoelectrons as a tool to evaluate spectral and temporal variations of solar EUV and XUV irradiance models over solar rotation and solar cycle time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, W. K.; Woods, T. N.; Fontenla, J. M.; Richards, P. G.; Tobiska, W.; Solomon, S. C.; Warren, H. P.

    2010-12-01

    Solar radiation below 50 nm produces a substantial portion of the F region ionization and most of the E region ionization that drives chemical reactions in the thermosphere. Because of a lack of high temporal and spectral resolution Solar EUV and XUV observations, particularly below 27 nm, various solar irradiance models have been developed. We have developed a technique to use observations of escaping photoelectron fluxes from the FAST satellite and two different photoelectron production codes driven by model solar irradiance values to systematically examine differences between observed and calculated escaping photoelectron fluxes. We have compared modeled and observed photoelectron fluxes from the start of TIMED/SEE data availability (2002) to the end of FAST photoelectron observations (2009). Solar irradiance inputs included TIMED/SEE data, which is derived from a model below 27 nm, and the FISM Version 1, the SRPM predictive model based on solar observation, HEUVAC, S2000, and NRL, solar irradiance models. We used the GLOW and FLIP photoelectron production codes. We find that model photoelectron spectra generated using the HEUVAC solar irradiance model have the best overall agreement with observations. Photoelectron spectra generated with the the TIMED/SEE based FISM model best agree with the observations on solar cycle time scales. Below ~27 nm all but the HEUVAC solar irradiance model produces photoelectron fluxes that are systematically below observations. We also noted systematic differences in the photoelectron energy spectra below 25 eV produced by the GLOW and FLIP photoelectron production codes for all solar irradiance inputs.

  17. On the dynamically driven temperature response in the middle atmosphere to the solar cycle signal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karlsson, Bodil; Kuilman, Maartje

    2016-04-01

    Noctilucent clouds (NLC), formed in the summer polar mesosphere, are exposed to solar radiation around the clock. These clouds consist of water ice, and are thus expected to be sensitive to changes in the solar Lyman alpha flux since it efficiently destroys water vapor in this region. Moreover, during solar maxima, the upper parts of the atmosphere are in general significantly warmer due to physical and chemical processes that are intensified at high solar activity. It is thus surprising that a clear solar cycle signal in NLC is hard to trace. We investigate how the circulation in the summer mesosphere is affected by changes in the solar flux using a 30-year run from the extended and nudged version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM30). We find that, as a result of a chain of wave-mean flow interactions primarily initiated in the winter stratosphere, the solar cycle signal from direct solar heating is suppressed by an enhanced circulation which adiabatically cools the region at increased solar activity.

  18. On the solar activity variations of nocturnal F region vertical drifts covering two solar cycles in the Indian longitude sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhav Haridas, M. K.; Manju, G.; Pant, Tarun Kumar

    2015-02-01

    A comprehensive analysis of the seasonal and solar cycle variabilities of nighttime vertical drift over the Indian longitude sector is accomplished using ionosonde data located at the magnetic equatorial location, Trivandrum (8.5°N, 76.5°E). The analysis extends over a span of two decades (1988-2008). The representative seasonal variations based on the extensive data of nocturnal vertical drift during three different solar activity epochs is arrived at, for the first time. Seasonally, it is seen that maximum post sunset Vd is obtained in vernal equinox (VE), followed by autumnal equinox (AE), winter solstice (WS), and summer solstice (SS) for high and moderate solar epochs, while for low solar epoch, maximum Vd occurs in WS followed by VE, AE, and SS. Further, the role of sunset times at the magnetic conjugate points in modulating the time and magnitude of peak drifts during different solar epochs is ascertained. The equinoctial asymmetry in peak Vd during high and moderate solar epochs is another significant outcome of this study. The solar activity dependence of vertical drift for a wide range of solar fluxes has been quantified for all the seasons. In the present era of GPS-based communication and navigation, these are important results that give a better handle in understanding essential factors that impact equatorial ionospheric phenomena.

  19. Cosmic rays, conditions in interplanetary space and geomagnetic variations during solar cycles 19-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biktash, Lilia

    2016-07-01

    We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic and solar cosmic rays (CRs). In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and CRs variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst and Kp indices beginning from 1955 to the end 2015. The indices are in common practice in the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction studies and they are the final product of this interaction. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Correlation of sunspot numbers and long-term variations of cosmic rays do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU also. Moreover records of in situ space measurements of the IMF and most other indicators of solar activity cover only a few decades and have a lot of gaps for calculations of long-term variations. Because of this, in such investigations, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of the indices and of the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, Halekala and Oulu neutron monitors during the 20-24 solar cycles. During the descending phases of the solar cycles the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations and had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst and Kp variations in these solar cycles were correlated with cosmic ray count rates and can be used for prediction of CR variations. Climate change in connection with evolution of CRs variations is discussed.

  20. The 11-year solar cycle continues during prolonged sunspot minima

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-12-01

    Streaming into the solar system at nearly the speed of light, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are a high-energy mix of protons, electrons, and atomic nuclei. As they pass into reach of the outflowing solar wind, the propagation of GCRs is inhibited. Galactic cosmic rays that make it to Earth interact with the atmosphere, creating a shower of heavy isotopes including beryllium-10. Beryllium-10 isotope concentrations recorded in ice cores provide a long-term, high temporal resolution record of galactic cosmic ray flux.

  1. Geomagnetic activity during 10 - 11 solar cycles that has been observed by old Russian observatories.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seredyn, Tomasz; Wysokinski, Arkadiusz; Kobylinski, Zbigniew; Bialy, Jerzy

    2016-07-01

    A good knowledge of solar-terrestrial relations during past solar activity cycles could give the appropriate tools for a correct space weather forecast. The paper focuses on the analysis of the historical collections of the ground based magnetic observations and their operational indices from the period of two sunspot solar cycles 10 - 11, period 1856 - 1878 (Bartels rotations 324 - 635). We use hourly observations of H and D geomagnetic field components registered at Russian stations: St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk, Barnaul, Ekaterinburg, Nertshinsk, Sitka, and compare them to the data obtained from the Helsinki observatory. We compare directly these records and also calculated from the data of the every above mentioned station IHV indices introduced by Svalgaard (2003), which have been used for further comparisons in epochs of assumed different polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We used also local index C9 derived by Zosimovich (1981) from St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk data. Solar activity is represented by sunspot numbers. The correlative and continuous wavelet analyses are applied for estimation of the correctness of records from different magnetic stations. We have specially regard to magnetic storms in the investigated period and the special Carrington event of 1-2 Sep 1859. Generally studied magnetic time series correctly show variability of the geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity presents some delay in relation to solar one as it is seen especially during descending and minimum phase of the even 11-year cycle. This pattern looks similarly in the case of 16 - 17 solar cycles.

  2. Performance evaluation of a low-temperature solar Rankine cycle system utilizing R245fa

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, X.D.; Zhao, L.; Wang, J.L.; Zhang, W.Z.; Zhao, X.Z.; Wu, W.

    2010-03-15

    A low-temperature solar Rankine system utilizing R245fa as the working fluid is proposed and an experimental system is designed, constructed and tested. Both the evacuated solar collectors and the flat plate solar collectors are used in the experimental system; meanwhile, a rolling-piston R245fa expander is also mounted in the system. The new designed R245fa expander works stably in the experiment, with an average expansion power output of 1.73 kW and an average isentropic efficiency of 45.2%. The overall power generation efficiency estimated is 4.2%, when the evacuated solar collector is utilized in the system, and with the condition of flat plate solar collector, it is about 3.2%. The experimental results show that using R245fa as working fluid in the low-temperature solar power Rankine cycle system is feasible and the performance is acceptable. (author)

  3. Solar Cycle Induced Variability in Middle Atmospheric HOx — Abundances and Partitioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S.; Millan Valle, L. F.; Li, K. F.; Sander, S. P.; Yung, Y. L.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.; Liang, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    Solar UV irradiance variability during the 11-year solar cycle has strong impacts on Earth's atmospheric composition and climate. The odd hydrogen species HOx (primarily OH and HO2), which plays a key role in controlling middle atmospheric ozone, are expected to show distinct variability following the solar cycle. Previous investigations based on total OH abundances from long-term ground-based observation and 5.5 year Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) OH data and model calculations suggest that the HOx solar cycle variability may dominate the ozone solar cycle variability above 40 km. In the present study, we expand the investigation to both HO2 and OH, as well as the partitioning between them, which is important in the catalytic HOx cycle. With the newly developed MLS offline HO2 product that has significantly improved data quality and better vertical and diurnal coverage, we examine the vertical and latitudinal distribution of the solar cycle signals in HO2 (~10 year data) and compare it with OH. Model simulations using the Caltech/JPL 1-D photochemical model are used to understand the detailed mechanisms controlling the variability in HOx abundances and partitioning. The results of using different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) variabilities in models and the comparison with observations will be discussed. In addition, while the continuous MLS OH data record is only 5.5 year, the MLS THz sub-system was turned back on for a 30-day OH measurement in every August since 2011. Using the most recent version of MLS retrieval software (v4.1x, to be released), some first OH data for selected months will be presented, suggesting reliable quality of the "THz restart" observations and making it promising to combine such OH data with earlier OH data to build a longer-term record.

  4. Closed Cycle Engine Program Used in Solar Dynamic Power Testing Effort

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ensworth, Clint B., III; McKissock, David B.

    1998-01-01

    NASA Lewis Research Center is testing the world's first integrated solar dynamic power system in a simulated space environment. This system converts solar thermal energy into electrical energy by using a closed-cycle gas turbine and alternator. A NASA-developed analysis code called the Closed Cycle Engine Program (CCEP) has been used for both pretest predictions and post-test analysis of system performance. The solar dynamic power system has a reflective concentrator that focuses solar thermal energy into a cavity receiver. The receiver is a heat exchanger that transfers the thermal power to a working fluid, an inert gas mixture of helium and xenon. The receiver also uses a phase-change material to store the thermal energy so that the system can continue producing power when there is no solar input power, such as when an Earth-orbiting satellite is in eclipse. The system uses a recuperated closed Brayton cycle to convert thermal power to mechanical power. Heated gas from the receiver expands through a turbine that turns an alternator and a compressor. The system also includes a gas cooler and a radiator, which reject waste cycle heat, and a recuperator, a gas-to-gas heat exchanger that improves cycle efficiency by recovering thermal energy.

  5. On Evaluating Cycling and Movement of Conventional Generators for Balancing Services with Large Solar Penetration

    SciTech Connect

    Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Ma, Jian

    2012-05-07

    Abstract— The increasing uncertainty caused by a higher penetration level of renewable energy points to the need for sufficient balancing services to ensure secure operation. It is thus of necessity to accurately quantify these services and evaluate the cycling and movement of conventional generators providing load following and regulation services for optimally planning and scheduling multiple resources. This paper first introduces a systematic approach to calculating load following and regulation requirements with a large amount of solar integration. Then, two methods to quantitatively determine the cycling of conventional generators are proposed, including (1) mileage and number of direction changes in balancing service and (2) ramp statistics (or half-cycle) analysis. The proposed methods are tested on the NV Energy power system model. Simulation results demonstrate a significant impact of increased solar capacity on balancing service and cycling of conventional generators. Busy hours are identified for different study scenarios with various solar penetration levels. This study provides a basis for evaluating the wear and tear of the conventional generators in the solar integration process in the Nevada power system. Index Terms—balancing requirement, conventional generator, cycling and movement, load following, regulation, renewable energy, solar integration

  6. Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

    2010-01-01

    Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

  7. Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

    2011-01-01

    Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

  8. A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoegy, W. R.; Wolff, C. L.

    1989-01-01

    Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes).

  9. A Comparison of Fe-Rich Solar Energetic Particle Events from Cycle 24 to Those of Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, C. M.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Mason, G. M.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

    2014-12-01

    Of the first twelve solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed by instruments on the ACE spacecraft during the rising phase of solar cycle 23, nine exhibited Fe/O abundance ratios >2 times the average SEP Fe/O ratio. Several explanations for these 'Fe-rich' events were put forth but conclusive testing required simultaneous SEP measurements from distinct longitudinal vantage points. This capability was achieved with the launch of the twin STEREO spacecraft in 2006, however it was not until 2013 that the first significantly Fe-rich SEP event would be measured by both STEREO and ACE. Several additional Fe-rich SEP events have been observed by multiple spacecraft since then. In this presentation we examine the longitudinal dependence of the composition of these events and compare their characteristics to those of the cycle-23 Fe-rich events. We will discuss these results in light of the characteristics of the weaker solar cycle 24 as well as the implications for the proposed scenarios for creating Fe-rich SEP events.

  10. Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using Geomagnetic Precursors: Validation and Update

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh Dabas, Raj; Sharma, Kavita; Sarkar, S. K.

    Maximum amplitude of forthcoming solar cycle number 24 is predicted using geomagnetic precursor technique which is based on the correlation of geomagnetic indices (disturbances) prior to the minimum of the sunspot cycle with the magnitude of the ensuing solar cycle maximum. In the previous study Ap index was used as disturbance index which is available from the last 6-7 solar cycle only whereas long series of aa index is available for more than last 10-12 cycles. In the present study, instead of Ap, aa index is used to predict maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24. First, to validate earlier prediction (Dabas et al., 2008, Solar Phys. DOI 10.1007/s11207-008-9200-1), based on cycles 17-23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days when aa is greater than or equal to 50, called the disturbance index, DI, at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1, 2, . . . each of them in six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle. As in the case of Ap, here again, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum or just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the best correlation (0.97) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ±9, and hind casting shows agreement between predicted and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10 percent. As applied to cycle 24, with aa as precursors yields maximum amplitude of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is very close to the earlier prediction of 124±23 (the 90% prediction interval) using Ap and hence validating the same. Further, the same method is applied to cycles 11-23 and once again the variate block 9, gives the best correlation (0.95) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ±13. The relation yields modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 130±20 (the 90% prediction interval) occurring about 44±4 months after its

  11. Solar Wind Helium Abundance as a Function of Speed and Heliographic Latitude: Variation through a Solar Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasper, J. C.; Stenens, M. L.; Stevens, M. L.; Lazarus, A. J.; Steinberg, J. T.; Ogilvie, Keith W.

    2006-01-01

    We present a study of the variation of the relative abundance of helium to hydrogen in the solar wind as a function of solar wind speed and heliographic latitude over the previous solar cycle. The average values of A(sub He), the ratio of helium to hydrogen number densities, are calculated in 25 speed intervals over 27-day Carrington rotations using Faraday Cup observations from the Wind spacecraft between 1995 and 2005. The higher speed and time resolution of this study compared to an earlier work with the Wind observations has led to the discovery of three new aspects of A(sub He), modulation during solar minimum from mid-1995 to mid-1997. First, we find that for solar wind speeds between 350 and 415 km/s, A(sub He), varies with a clear six-month periodicity, with a minimum value at the heliographic equatorial plane and a typical gradient of 0.01 per degree in latitude. For the slow wind this is a 30% effect. We suggest that the latitudinal gradient may be due to an additional dependence of coronal proton flux on coronal field strength or the stability of coronal loops. Second, once the gradient is subtracted, we find that A(sub He), is a remarkably linear function of solar wind speed. Finally, we identify a vanishing speed, at which A(sub He), is zero, is 259 km/s and note that this speed corresponds to the minimum solar wind speed observed at one AU. The vanishing speed may be related to previous theoretical work in which enhancements of coronal helium lead to stagnation of the escaping proton flux. During solar maximum the A(sub He), dependences on speed and latitude disappear, and we interpret this as evidence of two source regions for slow solar wind in the ecliptic plane, one being the solar minimum streamer belt and the other likely being active regions.

  12. The Role of Nitrogen in Titan’s Upper Atmospheric Hydrocarbon Chemistry Over the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luspay-Kuti, A.; Mandt, K. E.; Westlake, J. H.; Plessis, S.; Greathouse, T. K.

    2016-06-01

    Titan’s thermospheric photochemistry is primarily driven by solar radiation. Similarly to other planetary atmospheres, such as Mars’, Titan’s atmospheric structure is also directly affected by variations in the solar extreme-UV/UV output in response to the 11-year-long solar cycle. Here, we investigate the influence of nitrogen on the vertical production, loss, and abundance profiles of hydrocarbons as a function of the solar cycle. Our results show that changes in the atmospheric nitrogen atomic density (primarily in its ground state N(4S)) as a result of photon flux variations have important implications for the production of several minor hydrocarbons. The solar minimum enhancement of CH3, C2H6, and C3H8, despite the lower CH4 photodissociation rates compared with solar maximum conditions, is explained by the role of N(4S). N(4S) indirectly controls the altitude of termolecular versus bimolecular chemical regimes through its relationship with CH3. When in higher abundance during solar maximum at lower altitudes, N(4S) increases the importance of bimolecular CH3 + N(4S) reactions producing HCN and H2CN. The subsequent remarkable CH3 loss and decrease in the CH3 abundance at lower altitudes during solar maximum affects the overall hydrocarbon chemistry.

  13. The 11 year solar cycle signature on wave-driven dynamics in WACCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullens, Chihoko Y.; England, Scott L.; Garcia, Rolando R.

    2016-04-01

    This study describes the influence of the 11 year solar cycle on gravity waves and the wave-driven circulation, using an ensemble of six simulations of the period from 1955 to 2005 along with fixed solar maximum and minimum simulations of the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model (WACCM). Solar cycle signals are estimated by calculating the difference between solar maximum and minimum conditions. Simulations under both time-varying and fixed solar inputs show statistically significant responses in temperatures and winds in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during austral winter and spring. At solar maximum, the monthly mean, zonal mean temperature in the SH from July to October is cooler (~1-3 K) in the stratosphere and warmer (~1-4 K) in the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere (MLT). In solar maximum years, the SH polar vortex is more stable and its eastward speed is about 5-8 m s-1 greater than during solar minimum. The increase in the eastward wind propagates downward and poleward from July to October in the SH. Because of increase in the eastward wind, the propagation of eastward gravity waves to the MLT is reduced. This results in a net westward response in gravity wave drag, peaking at ~10 m s-1 d-1 in the SH high-latitude MLT. These changes in gravity wave drag modify the wave-induced residual circulation, and this contributes to the warming of ~1-4 K in the MLT.

  14. Analysis of Cycling Costs in Western Wind and Solar Integration Study

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, G.; Venkataraman, S.

    2012-06-01

    The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS) examined the impact of up to 30% penetration of variable renewable generation on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council system. Although start-up costs and higher operating costs because of part-load operation of thermal generators were included in the analysis, further investigation of additional costs associated with thermal unit cycling was deemed worthwhile. These additional cycling costs can be attributed to increases in capital as well as operations and maintenance costs because of wear and tear associated with increased unit cycling. This analysis examines the additional cycling costs of the thermal fleet by leveraging the results of WWSIS Phase 1 study.

  15. Equatorial thermospheric wind changes during the solar cycle - Measurements at Arequipa, Peru, from 1983 to 1990

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biondi, M. A.; Meriwether, J. W., Jr.; Fejer, B. G.; Gonzalez, S. A.; Hallenbeck, D. C.

    1991-01-01

    Near-equatorial thermospheric wind velocities at Arequipa, Peru, are determined over about two-thirds of a solar cycle using Fabry-Perot interferometer measurements of Doppler shifts in the nightglow 630-nm emission line. Mean monthly nocturnal variations in the meridional and zonal wind components are calculated from the nightly data to remove short-term (day-to-day) variability as well as any additional changes introduced by the progression of the solar cycle. For most of the years, at the winter solstice, there is a weak (more than 100 m/s) transequatorial flow from the summer to the winter hemisphere in the early and the late night, with essentially zero velocities in between. At the equinoxes, an early-night poleward (southward) flow at solar minimum (1986) is replaced by an equatorward (northward) flow at solar maximum (1989-1990).

  16. Effects of Space Weather on Biomedical Parameters during the Solar Activity Cycles 23-24.

    PubMed

    Ragul'skaya, M V; Rudenchik, E A; Chibisov, S M; Gromozova, E N

    2015-06-01

    The results of long-term (1998-2012) biomedical monitoring of the biotropic effects of space weather are discussed. A drastic change in statistical distribution parameters in the middle of 2005 was revealed that did not conform to usual sinusoidal distribution of the biomedical data reflecting changes in the number of solar spots over a solar activity cycle. The dynamics of space weather of 2001-2012 is analyzed. The authors hypothesize that the actual change in statistical distributions corresponds to the adaptation reaction of the biosphere to nonstandard geophysical characteristics of the 24th solar activity cycle and the probable long-term decrease in solar activity up to 2067. PMID:26085362

  17. Computer modeling of a regenerative solar-assisted Rankine power cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansing, F. L.

    1977-01-01

    A detailed interpretation of the computer program that describes the performance of one of these cycles; namely, a regenerative Rankine power cycle is presented. Water is used as the working medium throughout the cycle. The solar energy collected at relatively low temperature level presents 75 to 80% of the total heat demand and provides mainly the latent heat of vaporization. Another energy source at high temperature level superheats the steam and supplements the solar energy share. A program summary and a numerical example showing the sequency of computations are included. The outcome from the model comprises line temperatures, component heat rates, specific steam consumption, percentage of solar energy contribution, and the overall thermal efficiency.

  18. Measurements of sunspot group tilt angles for solar cycles 19-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isik, Seda; Isik, Emre

    2016-07-01

    The tilt angle of a sunspot group is a critical quantity in the surface transport magnetic flux on global scales, playing a role in the solar dynamo. To investigate Joy's law for four cycles, we measured the tilt angles of sunspot groups for solar cycles 19-24. We have developed an IDL routine, which allows the user to interactively select and measure sunspot positions and areas on the solar disc, using the sunspot drawing database of Kandilli Observatory. The method is similar to that used by others in the literature, with the exception that sunspot groups were identified manually, which has improved the accuracy of the tilt angles. We present cycle averages of the tilt angle and compare the results with the existing data in the literature.

  19. Low Cost Solar Energy Conversion (Carbon Cycle 2.0)

    SciTech Connect

    Ramesh, Ramamoorthy

    2010-02-04

    Ramamoorthy Ramesh from LBNL's Materials Science Division speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 2, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  20. Low Cost Solar Energy Conversion (Carbon Cycle 2.0)

    ScienceCinema

    Ramesh, Ramamoorthy

    2011-06-08

    Ramamoorthy Ramesh from LBNL's Materials Science Division speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 2, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  1. On the origin of the 22 years solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotov, V. A.

    2015-02-01

    Measurements of the general magnetic field of the Sun seen as a star were performed over last 45 years by the CrAO and five other observatories (1968-2012, nearly 23 thousand daily strengths B). Analysis of the B time series showed that the most substantial long-term period of the field variation is the Hale's cycle 22 years, which cannot be explained by dynamo theory. It reveals a saw-edged profile, indicating perhaps a cosmic origin of the cycle.

  2. The Effect of CMEs on Heliospheric Structure during the Ascending Phase of Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, D. F.

    2013-12-01

    The frequency of occurrence of CMEs observed in white light (WL) tends to track the solar cycle in both phase and amplitude, which varies by an order of magnitude over the cycle. Since WL CMEs have been counted since Skylab in the 1970s, we now have observations extending over the last four solar cycles. LASCO has now observed the entire Cycle 23 and continues to observe through the current rise to maximum of Cycle 24. It has detected CMEs at a rate slightly higher than earlier observations, varying from ~0.3/day around solar minimum to ~4/day at maximum. Running averages of the CME rate vs. sunspot number show that both have double cycle peaks, with the CME peak lagging sunspots by many months. This lag is likely related to observations that high latitude CMEs arise from polar crown filaments which have a 'rush to the poles'' near maximum and disappear (erupt) with a frequency that slightly lags sunspot numbers at low latitudes. Cycle 23 had an unusually long decline and flat minimum. Since 2006 we have been able to image and count CMEs in the heliosphere, and can determine rates from both LASCO and STEREO coronagraphs and from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) and the SECCHI Heliospheric Imagers in the heliosphere. Manual rates estimated by observers are now supplemented by counts from identifications made by automatic programs, such as in the SEEDS, CACTus and ARTEMIS catalogs. There is some indication that the CME rate is diverging somewhat from the sunspot number since about 2010. We will discuss these rate estimates, both for the Cycle 23-24 period and over the last four cycles for which we have WL CME observations.

  3. Development of a solar receiver for an organic rankine cycle engine

    SciTech Connect

    Haskins, H.J.; Taylor, R.M.; Osborn, D.B.

    1981-01-01

    A solar receiver is described for use with an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) engine as part of the Small Community Solar Thermal Power Experiment (SCSE). The selected receiver concept is a direct-heated, once-through, monotube boiler normally operating at supercritical pressure. Fabrication methods for the receiver core have been developed and validated with flat braze samples, cylindrical segment samples, and a complete full-scale core assembly.

  4. Using the 11-year Solar Cycle to Predict the Heliosheath Environment at Voyager 1 and 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A.; Opher, M.; Provornikova, E.; Richardson, J. D.; Toth, G.

    2015-12-01

    As Voyager 2 moves further into the heliosheath, the region of subsonic solar wind plasma in between the termination shock and the heliopause, it has observed an increase of the magnetic field strength to large values, all while maintaining magnetic flux conservation. Dr. Burlaga will present these observations in the 2015 AGU Fall meeting (abstract ID: 59200). The increase in magnetic field strength could be a signature of Voyager 2 approaching the heliopause or, possibly, due to solar cycle effects. In this work we investigate the role the 11-year solar cycle variations as well as magnetic dissipation effects have on the heliosheath environments observed at Voyager 1 and 2 using a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere. We use time and latitude-dependent solar wind velocity and density inferred from SOHO/SWAN and IPS data and solar cycle variations of the magnetic field derived from 27-day averages of the field magnitude average of the magnetic field at 1 AU from the OMNI database as presented in Michael et al. (2015). Since the model has already accurately matched the flows and magnetic field strength at Voyager 2 until 93 AU, we extend the boundary conditions to model the heliosheath up until Voyager 2 reaches the heliopause. This work will help clarify if the magnetic field observed at Voyager 2 should increase or decrease due to the solar cycle. We describe the solar magnetic field both as a dipole, with the magnetic and rotational axes aligned, and as a monopole, with magnetic field aligned with the interstellar medium to reduce numerical reconnection within the heliosheath, due to the removal of the heliospheric surrent sheet, and at the solar wind - interstellar medium interface. A comparison of the models allows for a crude estimation of the role that magnetic dissipation plays in the system and whether it allows for a better understanding of the Voyager 2 location in the heliosheath.

  5. Solar Wind Sources in the Late Declining Phase of Cycle 23: Effects of the Weak Solar Polar Field on High Speed Streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luhmann, J. G.; Lee, C. O.; Li, Yan; Arge, C. N.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, K.; Russell, C. T.; Howard, R. A.; Petrie, G.

    2009-05-01

    The declining phases of solar cycles are known for their high speed solar wind streams that dominate the geomagnetic responses during this period. Outstanding questions about these streams, which can provide the fastest winds of the solar cycle, concern their solar origins, persistence, and predictability. The declining phase of cycle 23 has lasted significantly longer than the corresponding phases of the previous two cycles. Solar magnetograph observations suggest that the solar polar magnetic field is also ˜ 2 - 3 times weaker. The launch of STEREO in late 2006 provided additional incentive to examine the origins of what is observed at 1 AU in the recent cycle, with the OMNI data base at the NSSDC available as an Earth/L1 baseline for comparisons. Here we focus on the year 2007 when the solar corona exhibited large, long-lived mid-to-low latitude coronal holes and polar hole extensions observed by both SOHO and STEREO imagers. STEREO provides in situ measurements consistent with rigidly corotating solar wind stream structure at up to ˜ 45° heliolongitude separation by late 2007. This stability justifies the use of magnetogram-based steady 3D solar wind models to map the observed high speed winds back to their coronal sources. We apply the WSA solar wind model currently running at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center with the expectation that it should perform its best at this quiet time. The model comparisons confirm the origins of the observed high speed streams expected from the solar images, but also reveal uncertainties in the solar wind source mapping associated with this cycle’s weaker solar polar fields. Overall, the results illustrate the importance of having accurate polar fields in synoptic maps used in solar wind forecast models. At the most fundamental level, they demonstrate the control of the solar polar fields over the high speed wind sources, and thus one specific connection between the solar dynamo and the solar wind character.

  6. Comparison between solar electron and ion path lengths traveled during the Ground-Level Enhancement events in solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malandraki, Olga; Tan, Lun; Reames, Donald; Ng, Chee; Wang, Linghua; Patsou, Ioanna; Papaioannou, Athanasios

    2014-05-01

    The inconsistency of electron and ion path lengths during Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events remains an open issue. In order to investigate the difference between the electron and ion path lengths during the Ground-Level Enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23, electron and ion data from the WIND/3DP/SST and WIND/EPACT/LEMT instruments respectively have been used. The electron path lengths were determined for the GLEs in solar cycle 23 assuming that the solar release time of non-relativistic electrons is well represented by the onset time of metric type II or decametre-hectometric (DH) type III radio bursts. The values estimated for low-energy electrons (~ 27 keV) were compared to the ion path lengths deduced by Reames for the GLEs in solar cycle 23 based on the onset-time analysis and consistency within an error range of 10% was found. In addition, the electron path lengths were found to increase with increasing electron energies, with the increasing rate of path lengths corresponding to broader position angle distribution (PAD) of electrons, which suggests that electron path length enhancement is due to interplanetary scattering experienced by first-arriving electrons. Furthermore, the solar longitude distribution and IMF topology of the GLE events examined support that the non-relativistic electrons observed have been accelerated in shocks driven by CMEs. Finally, it should be stressed that the observed path length consistency leads to stability of magnetic flux tubes along which particles travel, with a maximum stability time of ~ 4.8 hours, which could be very important for forecasting since, based on the observed onset time of the electron event, it is possible to observe the arrival and duration of the proton event.

  7. Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment...

  8. First evidence of middle atmospheric HO2 response to 27 day solar cycles from satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shuhui; Zhang, Qiong; Millán, Luis; Li, King-Fai; Yung, Yuk L.; Sander, Stanley P.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.

    2015-11-01

    HO2 and OH, also known as HOx, play an important role in controlling middle atmospheric O3. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx are expected to respond rapidly to solar irradiance changes, resulting in O3 variability. While OH solar cycle signals have been investigated, HO2 studies have been limited by the lack of reliable observations. Here we present the first evidence of HO2 variability during solar 27 day cycles by investigating the recently developed HO2 data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). We focus on 2012-2015, when solar variability is strong near the peak of Solar Cycle 24. The features of HO2 variability, with the strongest signals at 0.01-0.068 hPa, correlate well with those of solar Lyman α. When continuous MLS OH observations are not available, the new HO2 data could be a promising alternative for investigating HOx variability and the corresponding impacts on O3 and the climate.

  9. Solar Cycle Variability in Mean Thermospheric Composition and Temperature Induced by Atmospheric Tides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, M., Jr.; Forbes, J. M.; Hagan, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    Vertically-propagating atmospheric thermal tides whose origins lie in Earth's lower atmosphere are now widely recognized as one of the dominant "meteorological" drivers of space weather. Many prior research efforts have focused on documenting and understanding the role that dissipating tides play in determining the longitudinal and seasonal variability associated with lower thermospheric winds, temperature, and constituent densities. However, considerably less attention has focused on understanding the potential solar cycle variability in the mean thermospheric state induced by the tides. In this paper we utilize the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), forced with observationally-based tides at the model lower boundary from the Climatological Tidal Model of the Thermosphere (CTMT, from Oberheide et al. [2011]), to elucidate how the dissipating tides induce variations of up to 30 K in the zonal-mean thermosphere temperature between solar minimum and maximum. Numerical experiments are performed for the month of September and for solar minimum, medium, and maximum conditions in order to quantify the solar cycle variability associated with the different terms in the thermodynamic energy, major and minor neutral constituent continuity equations. Our analysis indicates that solar cycle variability in neutral temperatures results from a combination of net eddy heat transport effects and tidal modulation of net nitric oxide (NO) cooling. The chemical and dynamical pathways through which dissipating tides affect mean NO cooling differently at solar minimum and maximum are diagnosed.

  10. Advances in understanding the genesis and evolution solar energetic particle events over the last two solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vainio, Rami

    2016-04-01

    I will review the observational and modeling efforts related to solar energetic particle (SEP) events over the 23rd and 24th solar cycles. I will concentrate on large SEP events related to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but discuss observations related to the possible role of flares in the acceleration of particles in those events, as well. The possible roles of various acceleration and transport processes in understanding the characteristics of the events will be discussed. This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324 (HESPERIA).

  11. Predicting the Amplitude and Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25 with Surface Flux Transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Upton, Lisa

    2016-05-01

    Evidence from 40 years of magnetic field measurements, 110 years of polar faculae counts, and 150 years of geomagnetic field measurements, strongly indicates that the strength of the magnetic field at the Sun's poles near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. The processes that produce these polar fields are well observed and accurately modeled as the transport of magnetic flux (which emerges in active regions) by the horizontal flows in the Sun's near-surface shear layer, i.e. differential rotation, poleward meridional flow, and cellular convective motions. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows fully constrained by observations, to simulate the evolution of the Sun's polar magnetic fields from early 2016 to the end of 2019 – near the expected time of Cycle 24/25 minimum. We assimilate active regions from Cycle 14 (107 years earlier) to represent the continued development of Cycle 24. Cycle 14 was similar to Cycle 24 in size, shape, and hemispheric asymmetry. We run a series of simulations in which the uncertain conditions (convective motion details, active region tilt, and meridional flow profile) are varied within expected ranges. We find that the ensemble average of the strength of the polar fields near the end of Cycle 24 is about the same as that measured near the end of Cycle 23, indicating that Cycle 25 will be similar in strength to the current cycle with an expected maximum sunspot number (Version 2.0) of 100±15. In all cases within our ensemble the polar fields are asymmetric with fields in the south stronger than those in the north. After just four years of simulation the variability across our ensemble indicates an uncertainty of about 15%. This stochastic variability, intrinsic to the Sun itself, suggests that we may never be able to reliably predict solar cycles more than one cycle into the future.

  12. Optimum outlet temperature of solar collector for maximum work output for an Otto air-standard cycle with ideal regeneration

    SciTech Connect

    Eldighidy, S.M. )

    1993-09-01

    The optimum solar collector outlet temperature for maximizing the work output for an Otto air-standard cycle with ideal regeneration is investigated. A mathematical model for the energy balance on the solar collector along with the useful work output and the thermal efficiency of the Otto air-standard cycle with ideal regeneration is developed. The optimum solar collector outlet temperature for maximum work output is determined. The effect of radiative and convective heat losses from the solar collector, on the optimum outlet temperature is presented. The results reveal that the highest solar collector outlet temperature and, therefore, greatest Otto cycle efficiency and work output can be attained with the lowest values of radiative and convective heat losses. Moreover, high cycle work output (as a fraction of absorbed solar energy) and high efficiency of an Otto heat engine with ideal regeneration, driven by a solar collector system, can be attained with low compression ratio.

  13. Can Solar Wind Volatiles Survive the Daily Heat Cycle of a Lunar Pit?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmerman, M. I.; Hurley, D.; Bussey, B.

    2014-12-01

    Lunar pits and hypothesized lava tubes could provide shelter from solar wind, radiation, and extreme heat variations during a future mission to the Moon. We employ three-dimensional finite-volume heating simulations using realistic surface geometries, solar illumination, and radiative transfer to characterize the quasisteady daily heat cycle within a lunar pit, with and without occluded subsurface regions such as lava tubes. Two-dimensional plasma simulations characterize the flow of solar wind ions onto the hottest illuminated surfaces. Combining the plasma and heat environments enables a highly detailed assessment of volatile stability within pits of different shapes, sizes, and latitudes.

  14. Comparison of Coronal Streamer Properties to Solar Wind Models For The Last Two Solar Cycle Minima

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, Mari Paz; Landi, E.; Cranmer, S. R.; Raymond, J. C.; Cohen, O.; Oran, R.

    2013-07-01

    We characterize the physical properties of two coronal streamers during Earth/Ulysses quadrature configurations for the previous two solar minimum periods. Comparisons between coronal remote-sensing observations and in situ measurements of solar wind plasma properties are being used to characterize the origin of slow wind streams. In order to investigate slow solar wind heating and acceleration, we compare the measurements with predictions from MHD models. We aim to use the empirical measurements to distinguish between different proposed physical processes for the slow solar wind. This work is supported by NASA grant NNX10AQ58G to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory.

  15. THE NON-RADIAL PROPAGATION OF CORONAL STREAMERS WITHIN A SOLAR CYCLE

    SciTech Connect

    Tlatov, A. G.

    2010-05-01

    We have analyzed the shape of the solar corona using the data of daily observations with Mark-III/IV (1980-2008) and SOHO/LASCO-2 (1996-2009) telescopes. The angles of deviation of coronal rays from the radial direction {Delta}{theta} vary cyclically, reaching the maximum deviation toward the solar equator at the minimum of the solar activity. We consider the relations between the angles of deviation of coronal rays and the parameters of the heliospheric current sheet, and discuss the hypothesis according to which the variations of the inclination {Delta}{theta} of coronal rays can affect the parameters of the solar wind and the indices of geomagnetic perturbations at the minima of the solar activity cycles.

  16. THE ACOUSTIC CUTOFF FREQUENCY OF THE SUN AND THE SOLAR MAGNETIC ACTIVITY CYCLE

    SciTech Connect

    Jimenez, A.; Palle, P. L.; Garcia, R. A.

    2011-12-20

    The acoustic cutoff frequency-the highest frequency for acoustic solar eigenmodes-is an important parameter of the solar atmosphere as it determines the upper boundary of the p-mode resonant cavities. At frequencies beyond this value, acoustic disturbances are no longer trapped but are traveling waves. Interference among them gives rise to higher-frequency peaks-the pseudomodes-in the solar acoustic spectrum. The pseudomodes are shifted slightly in frequency with respect to p-modes, making possible the use of pseudomodes to determine the acoustic cutoff frequency. Using data from the GOLF and VIRGO instruments on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft, we calculate the acoustic cutoff frequency using the coherence function between both the velocity and intensity sets of data. By using data gathered by these instruments during the entire lifetime of the mission (1996 until the present), a variation in the acoustic cutoff frequency with the solar magnetic activity cycle is found.

  17. Life Cycle Assessment of Titania Perovskite Solar Cell Technology for Sustainable Design and Manufacturing.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jingyi; Gao, Xianfeng; Deng, Yelin; Li, Bingbing; Yuan, Chris

    2015-11-01

    Perovskite solar cells have attracted enormous attention in recent years due to their low cost and superior technical performance. However, the use of toxic metals, such as lead, in the perovskite dye and toxic chemicals in perovskite solar cell manufacturing causes grave concerns for its environmental performance. To understand and facilitate the sustainable development of perovskite solar cell technology from its design to manufacturing, a comprehensive environmental impact assessment has been conducted on titanium dioxide nanotube based perovskite solar cells by using an attributional life cycle assessment approach, from cradle to gate, with manufacturing data from our laboratory-scale experiments and upstream data collected from professional databases and the literature. The results indicate that the perovskite dye is the primary source of environmental impact, associated with 64.77% total embodied energy and 31.38% embodied materials consumption, contributing to more than 50% of the life cycle impact in almost all impact categories, although lead used in the perovskite dye only contributes to about 1.14% of the human toxicity potential. A comparison of perovskite solar cells with commercial silicon and cadmium-tellurium solar cells reveals that perovskite solar cells could be a promising alternative technology for future large-scale industrial applications. PMID:26489525

  18. Does the Variation of Solar Intra-network Horizontal Field Follow Sunspot Cycle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, C. L.; Wang, J. X.

    2015-07-01

    The ubiquitousness of the solar inter-network horizontal magnetic field has been revealed by space-borne observations with high spatial resolution and polarization sensitivity. However, no consensus has been achieved on the origin of the horizontal field among solar physicists. For a better understanding, in this study, we analyze the cyclic variation of the inter-network horizontal field by using the spectro-polarimeter observations provided by the Solar Optical Telescope on board Hinode, covering the interval from 2008 April to 2015 February. The method of wavelength integration is adopted to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio. It is found that from 2008 to 2015 the inter-network horizontal field does not vary when solar activity increases, and the average flux density of the inter-network horizontal field is 87 ± 1 G, In addition, the imbalance between horizontal and vertical fields also keeps invariant within the scope of deviation, i.e., 8.7 ± 0.5, from the solar minimum to maximum of solar cycle 24. This result confirms that the inter-network horizontal field is independent of the sunspot cycle. The revelation favors the idea that a local dynamo is creating and maintaining the solar inter-network horizontal field.

  19. SOLAR CYCLE ABUNDANCE VARIATIONS IN COROTATING INTERACTION REGIONS: EVIDENCE FOR A SUPRATHERMAL ION SEED POPULATION

    SciTech Connect

    Mason, G. M.; Desai, M. I.; Li, G.

    2012-04-01

    We have surveyed the heavy ion composition of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) over the recent solar minimum and combined this with our earlier survey to cover the 1998-2011 period encompassing a full solar cycle and onset of the new cycle. We find that the solar minimum CIR intensities and spectral forms are similar to those in active periods, indicating that the basic acceleration mechanism does not vary with solar activity for energies below a few MeV nucleon{sup -1}. However, the heavy ion abundances show a clear correlation with sunspot number, where heavy ions are more enhanced during active periods. Over the mass range He-Fe, the enhancement is organized by a power law in Q/M with exponent -1.9, with Fe/O varying by a factor of {approx}6. During solar minimum CIR Fe/O was {approx}0.05, well below the corresponding solar wind ratio. Previous studies have shown that rare ions (He{sup +}, {sup 3}He) enhanced in CIRs come from the suprathermal ion pool. The observations presented here extend this evidence, indicating that in addition to rare He{sup +} and {sup 3}He the CIR major heavy ion species are accelerated out of the suprathermal ion pool, not the bulk solar wind.

  20. Solar Cycle Variation and Application to the Space Radiation Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, John W.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Shinn, Judy L.; Tai, Hsiang; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Badhwar, Gautam D.; Badavi, Francis F.; Atwell, William

    1999-01-01

    The interplanetary plasma and fields are affected by the degree of disturbance that is related to the number and types of sunspots in the solar surface. Sunspot observations were improved with the introduction of the telescope in the seventeenth century, allowing observations which cover many centuries. A single quantity (sunspot number) was defined by Wolf in 1848 that is now known to be well correlated with many space observable quantities and is used herein to represent variations caused in the space radiation environment. The resultant environmental models are intended for future aircraft and space-travel-related exposure estimates.

  1. DISTRIBUTION OF MAGNETIC BIPOLES ON THE SUN OVER THREE SOLAR CYCLES

    SciTech Connect

    Tlatov, Andrey G.; Vasil'eva, Valerya V.; Pevtsov, Alexei A. E-mail: apevtsov@nso.ed

    2010-07-01

    We employ synoptic full disk longitudinal magnetograms to study latitudinal distribution and orientation (tilt) of magnetic bipoles in the course of sunspot activity during cycles 21, 22, and 23. The data set includes daily observations from the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak (1975-2002) and Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (MDI/SOHO, 1996-2009). Bipole pairs were selected on the basis of proximity and flux balance of two neighboring flux elements of opposite polarity. Using the area of the bipoles, we have separated them into small quiet-Sun bipoles (QSBs), ephemeral regions (ERs), and active regions (ARs). We find that in their orientation, ERs and ARs follow Hale-Nicholson polarity rule. As expected, AR tilts follow Joy's law. ERs, however, show significantly larger tilts of opposite sign for a given hemisphere. QSBs are randomly oriented. Unlike ARs, ERs also show a preference in their orientation depending on the polarity of the large-scale magnetic field. These orientation properties may indicate that some ERs may form at or near the photosphere via the random encounter of opposite polarity elements, while others may originate in the convection zone at about the same location as ARs. The combined latitudinal distribution of ERs and ARs exhibits a clear presence of Spoerer's butterfly diagram (equatorward drift in the course of a solar cycle). ERs extend the ARs' 'wing' of the butterfly diagram to higher latitudes. This high latitude extension of ERs suggests an extended solar cycle with the first magnetic elements of the next cycle developing shortly after the maximum of the previous cycle. The polarity orientation and tilt of ERs may suggest the presence of poloidal fields of two configurations (new cycle and old cycle) in the convection zone at the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  2. Oscillating dynamo in the presence of a fossil magnetic field - The solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levy, E. H.; Boyer, D.

    1982-01-01

    Hydromagnetic dynamo generation of oscillating magnetic fields in the presence of an external, ambient magnetic field introduces a marked polarity asymmetry between the two halves of the magnetic cycle. The principle of oscillating dynamo interaction with external fields is developed, and a tentative application to the sun is described. In the sun a dipole moment associated with the stable fluid beneath the convection zone would produce an asymmetrical solar cycle.

  3. H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcintosh, P. S.

    1975-01-01

    Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

  4. Rapid thermal cycling of solar array blanket coupons for Space Station Freedom

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheiman, David A.; Smith, Bryan K.

    1991-01-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center has been conducting rapid thermal cycling on blanket coupons for Space Station Freedom. This testing includes two designs (8 coupons total) of the solar array. Four coupons were fabricated as part of the Photovoltaic Array Environmental Protection Program (PAEP), NAS3-25079, at Lockheed Missiles and Space Company. These coupons began cycling in early 1989 and have completed 172,000 thermal cycles. Four other coupons were fabricated a year later and included several design changes; cycling of these began in early 1990 and has reached 90,000 cycles. The objective of this testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime (15 yrs.) of the welded interconnects within a low earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycling environment. The blanket coupons, design changes, test description, status to date including performance and observed anomalies, and any insights related to the testing of these coupons are described. The description of a third design is included.

  5. Solar Magnetic Activity Cycles, Coronal Potential Field Models and Eruption Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrie, G. J. D.

    2013-05-01

    We study the evolution of the observed photospheric magnetic field and the modeled global coronal magnetic field during the past 3 1/2 solar activity cycles observed since the mid-1970s. We use synoptic magnetograms and extrapolated potential-field models based on longitudinal full-disk photospheric magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory's three magnetographs at Kitt Peak, the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun vector spectro-magnetograph, the spectro-magnetograph and the 512-channel magnetograph instruments, and from Stanford University's Wilcox Solar Observatory. The associated multipole field components are used to study the dominant length scales and symmetries of the coronal field. Polar field changes are found to be well correlated with active fields over most of the period studied, except between 2003 and 2006 when the active fields did not produce significant polar field changes. Of the axisymmetric multipoles, only the dipole and octupole follow the poles whereas the higher orders follow the activity cycle. All non-axisymmetric multipole strengths are well correlated with the activity cycle. The tilt of the solar dipole is therefore almost entirely due to active-region fields. The axial dipole and octupole are the largest contributors to the global field except while the polar fields are reversing. This influence of the polar fields extends to modulating eruption rates. According to the Computer Aided CME Tracking, Solar Eruptive Event Detection System, and Nobeyama radioheliograph prominence eruption catalogs, the rate of solar eruptions is found to be systematically higher for active years between 2003 and 2012 than for those between 1997 and 2002. This behavior appears to be connected with the weakness of the late-cycle 23 polar fields as suggested by Luhmann. We see evidence that the process of cycle 24 field reversal is well advanced at both poles.

  6. Effects of meridional flow variations on solar cycles 23 and 24

    SciTech Connect

    Upton, Lisa; Hathaway, David H. E-mail: lar0009@uah.edu

    2014-09-10

    The faster meridional flow that preceded the solar cycle 23/24 minimum is thought to have led to weaker polar field strengths, producing the extended solar minimum and the unusually weak cycle 24. To determine the impact of meridional flow variations on the sunspot cycle, we have simulated the Sun's surface magnetic field evolution with our newly developed surface flux transport model. We investigate three different cases: a constant average meridional flow, the observed time-varying meridional flow, and a time-varying meridional flow in which the observed variations from the average have been doubled. Comparison of these simulations shows that the variations in the meridional flow over cycle 23 have a significant impact (∼20%) on the polar fields. However, the variations produced polar fields that were stronger than they would have been otherwise. We propose that the primary cause of the extended cycle 23/24 minimum and weak cycle 24 was the weakness of cycle 23 itself—with fewer sunspots, there was insufficient flux to build a big cycle. We also find that any polar counter-cells in the meridional flow (equatorward flow at high latitudes) produce flux concentrations at mid-to-high latitudes that are not consistent with observations.

  7. An Observed Decline in the Amplitude of Recent Solar-Cycle Peaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, G. A.; de Toma, G.; Cookson, A. M.

    2014-10-01

    There has been much speculation about the extended minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. Cycle 24 itself has been unusually weak compared with recent cycles. We present quantitative evidence for the weakness of both Cycles 23 and, particularly, 24. The data are objective indices derived from precision photometric images obtained on a daily basis at the San Fernando Observatory. These data form the longest running, homogeneous photometric record known to us. We show sunspot areas from red images and facular/network areas from Ca ii K-line images. Spot and facular area are a simple and direct measurement of the strength of solar activity. The data clearly show the decline in the amplitude of sunspot maxima for Cycles 23 and 24 compared with Cycle 22. The relative amplitudes of mean spot area for Cycles 22 through 24 are 1.0, 0.74, and 0.37, respectively. There is also an indication that the facular-to-spot area ratio has increased in Cycle 24.

  8. The Influence of the Solar Cycle on Plasmasphere Refilling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krall, J.; Huba, J.

    2015-12-01

    During refilling, ionospheric plasma streams into the inner magnetosphere from both the northern and southern hemispheres. Plasmasphere refilling rates depend on both the ionospheric sources and on the thermalization of streaming ions. We use the NRL SAMI3 ionosphere/plasmasphere code[1] coupled to the NRLMSIS empirical atmosphere model and the HWM14 empirical wind model, to simulate H+, He+ and O+ populations in the plasmasphere. The SAMI3 ionosphere code includes 7 ion species (H+, He+, O+, N+, O2+, N2+, NO+), each treated as a separate fluid, with temperature equations being solved for H+, He+, O+ and e. Measurements show that refilling rates decrease with increasing solar activity, an effect reproduced by SAMI3 and its two-dimensional cousin, SAMI2. We find that the refilling rate and the resulting the plasmasphere electron content are sensitive to the thermospheric composition and temperature, as well as photoelectron heating and photoproduction rates. Depending on conditions, simulations suggest that the plasmaspheric contribution to the total electron content can either increase or decrease with solar activity, as represented by the daily and 81-day-average F10.7 indices. [1] Huba, J. and J. Krall, 2013, ``Modeling the plasmasphere with SAMI3'', Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 6--10, doi:10.1029/2012GL054300 Research supported by NRL base funds and the NASA HSR program.

  9. Solar Fuels and Carbon Cycle 2.0 (Carbon Cycle 2.0)

    ScienceCinema

    Alivisatos, Paul

    2011-06-03

    Paul Alivisatos, LBNL Director speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 4, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

  10. Smaller Forbush Decreases in Solar Cycle 24: Effect of the Weak CME Field Strength?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thakur, N.

    2015-12-01

    A Forbush decrease (FD) is a sudden depression in the intensity of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) background, followed by a gradual recovery. One of the major causes of FDs is the presence of magnetic structures such as magnetic clouds (MCs) or corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that have enhanced magnetic field, which can scatter particles away reducing the observed GCR intensity. Recent work (Gopalswamy et al. 2014, GRL 41, 2673) suggests that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are expanding anomalously in solar cycle 24 due to the reduced total pressure in the ambient medium. One of the consequences of the anomalous expansion is the reduced magnetic content of MCs, so we expect subdued FDs in cycle 24. In this paper, we present preliminary results from a survey of FDs during MC events in cycle 24 in comparison with those in cycle 23. We find that only ~17% FDs in cycle 24 had an amplitude >3%, as compared to ~31% in cycle 23. This result is consistent with the difference in the maximum magnetic field intensities (Bmax) of MCs in the two cycles: only ~ 10% of MCs in cycle 24 have Bmax>20nT, compared to 22% in cycle 23, confirming that MCs of cycle 24 have weaker magnetic field content. Therefore, we suggest that weaker magnetic field intensity in the magnetic clouds of cycle 24 has led to FDs with smaller amplitudes.

  11. Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J.; Sander, Stanley P.; Yung, Yuk L.; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Harder, Jerald W.; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P.

    2013-01-01

    The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O3) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O3 chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Aura satellite suggest an ∼7–10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6–7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O3 SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O3 further. PMID:23341617

  12. Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J; Sander, Stanley P; Yung, Yuk L; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J; Santee, Michelle L; Harder, Jerald W; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P

    2013-02-01

    The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O(3)) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O(3) chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite suggest an ∼7-10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6-7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O(3) SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O(3) further. PMID:23341617

  13. Occurrence of Sporadic -E layer during the Ending Phase of Solar Cycle 23rd and Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24th over the Anomaly Crest Region Bhopal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhawre, Purushottam; Gwal, Ashok Kumar; Tripathi, Sharad Chandra; Mansoori, Azad Ahmad; Aslam A., M.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Purohit, Pramod K.; Waheed, Malik Abdul; Khatarkar, Prakash

    Ionospheric anomaly crest regions are most challenging for scientific community to understand its mechanism and investigation, for this purpose we are investigating some inospheric result for this region. The study is based on the ionogram data recorded by IPS-71 Digital Ionosonde installed over anomaly crust region Bhopal (Geo.Lat.23.2° N, Geo. Long77.4° E, Dip latitude18.4°) over a four year period from January 2007 to December 2010, covering the ending phase of 23rd Solar Cycle and starting phase of 24th solar cycle. This particular period is felt to be very suitable for examining the sunspot number and it encompasses periods of low solar activities. Quarterly ionograms are analyzed for 24 hours during these study years and have been carefully examined to note down the presence of sporadic- E. We also note down the space weather activities along with the study. The studies are divided in mainly four parts with space and geomagnetic activities during these periods. The occurrence probability of this layer is highest in summer solstice, moderate during equinox and low during winter solstice. Remarkable occurrence peaks appear from June to July in summer and from December to January in winter. The layer occurrence showed a double peak variation with distinct layer groups, in the morning (0200 LT) and the other during evening (1800 LT).The morning layer descent was associated with layer density increase indicating the strengthening of the layer while it decreased during the evening layer descent. The result indicates the presence of semi-diurnal tide over the location while the higher descent velocities could be due to the modulation of the ionization by gravity waves along with the tides. The irregularities associated with the gradient-drift instability disappear during the counter electrojet and the current flow is reversed in westward. Keyword: ionosphere, solar cycle, sporadic - E

  14. 3D Distribution of the Coronal Electron Density and its Evolution with Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson Leslie; Davila, Joseph M.; St. Cyr, Orville Chris

    2016-05-01

    The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. We know that the COR1-A and –B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness measurements from two different vantage points over a long period of time that encompasses the solar minimum of Solar Cycle 23 to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. This extended period of polarized brightness measurements can now be used to reconstruct 3D electron density distributions of the corona between the heliocentric heights of 1.5-4.0 solar radii. In this study we have constructed the 3D coronal density models for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. The validity of these 3D density models is verified by comparing with similar 3D density models created by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and 2D density distributions inverted from the polarized brightness images from LASCO/C2 instrument onboard the SOHO spacecraft. When examining the causes for the temporal variation of the global electron content we find that its increase from the solar minimum to maximum depends on changes to both the total area and mean density of coronal streamers. We also find that the global and hemispheric electron contents show quasi-periodic variations with a period of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24 through wavelet analysis. In addition, we also explore any obvious relationships between temporal variation of the global electron content with the photospheric magnetic flux, total mass of

  15. Solar cycle dependence in the statistical and correlation properties of geomagnetic indices and the solar wind driver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, Sandra

    2010-05-01

    Scaling and a departure from Gaussian statistics has been identified as a key property of magnetospheric energy release as seen in geomagnetic indices derived from ground based magnetometer observations. These long timeseries can be readily compared with those of in- situ observations from spacecraft that monitor the solar wind driver. We will compare quantitative evidence of correlation, scaling and departures from Gaussian statistics in the fluctuations in the solar wind, with that seen in geomagnetic indices AU and AL and in the epsilon parameter that characterizes energy inflow and driving of the magnetosphere by the solar wind. On timescales shorter than the characteristic substorm timescale, fluctuations in the indices show a characteristic power law power spectrum and scaling in their non- Gaussian probability density functionss. Dividing the data into intervals of solar maximum and minimum reveals that whereas fluctuations in epsilon and AU change their properties with the solar cycle, fluctuations in AL do not. These quantitative statistical measures place strong statistical constraints on the propagation of information from these below- substorm scale fluctuations from the solar wind to the magnetosphere as seen by the indices. Scaling of fractal type also offers the possibility of (nonlinear, or fractional stochastic differential equations) Fokker- Planck models (analogous to Black-Scholes type models for stock and option price dynamics) for these timeseries which we will discuss. Direct nonlinear measures of correlation such as Mutual Information (MI) can also be used to characterize the driving of the geomagnetic indices by the solar wind. We discuss how MI can be used to identify the optimal solar wind driving parameter in a model independent manner.

  16. Comparison of Total Solar Irradiance with NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph Data in Solar Cycles 22 and 23

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Harrison P.; Branston, Detrick D.; Jones, Patricia B.; Popescu, Miruna D.

    2002-01-01

    An earlier study compared NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) data with spacecraft measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations over a 1.5 year period in the declining phase of solar cycle 22. This paper extends the analysis to an eight-year period which also spans the rising and early maximum phases of cycle 23. The conclusions of the earlier work appear to be robust: three factors (sunspots, strong unipolar regions, and strong mixed polarity regions) describe most of the variation in the SPM record, but only the first two are associated with TSI. Additionally, the residuals of a linear multiple regression of TSI against SPM observations over the entire eight-year period show an unexplained, increasing, linear time variation with a rate of about 0.05 W m(exp -2) per year. Separate regressions for the periods before and after 1996 January 01 show no unexplained trends but differ substantially in regression parameters. This behavior may reflect a solar source of TSI variations beyond sunspots and faculae but more plausibly results from uncompensated non-solar effects in one or both of the TSI and SPM data sets.

  17. Solar dynamic organic Rankine cycle heat rejection system simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Havens, V. N.; Ragaller, D. R.; Namkoong, D.

    The use of a rotary fluid management device (RFMD) and shear flow condenser for two-phase fluid management in microgravity organic Rankine cycle (ORC) applications is examined. A prototype of the proposed Space Station ORC heat rejection system was constructed to evaluate the performance of the inventory control method. The design and operation of the RFMD, shear flow condenser, and inventory control fluid accumulator are described. A schematic diagram of the ORC, RFMD, and condenser, and a functional diagram of the heat rejection system for the ORC are presented.

  18. A Brayton cycle solar dynamic heat receiver for space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sedgwick, L. M.; Nordwall, H. L.; Kaufmann, K. J.; Johnson, S. D.

    1989-01-01

    The detailed design of a heat receiver developed to meet the requirements of the Space Station Freedom, which will be assembled and operated in low earth orbit beginning in the mid-1990's, is described. The heat receiver supplies thermal energy to a nominal 25-kW closed-Brayton-cycle power conversion unit. The receiver employs an integral thermal energy storage system utilizing the latent heat of a eutectic-salt phase-change mixture to store energy for eclipse operation. The salt is contained within a felt metal matrix which enhances heat transfer and controls the salt void distribution during solidification.

  19. Solar dynamic organic Rankine cycle heat rejection system simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Havens, V. N.; Ragaller, D. R.; Namkoong, D.

    1987-01-01

    The use of a rotary fluid management device (RFMD) and shear flow condenser for two-phase fluid management in microgravity organic Rankine cycle (ORC) applications is examined. A prototype of the proposed Space Station ORC heat rejection system was constructed to evaluate the performance of the inventory control method. The design and operation of the RFMD, shear flow condenser, and inventory control fluid accumulator are described. A schematic diagram of the ORC, RFMD, and condenser, and a functional diagram of the heat rejection system for the ORC are presented.

  20. Expected Radiation Hazard at Different Phases of Solar Cycle Based on Statistical Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Fluencies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, L. I.; Pustil'Nik, L.

    2008-09-01

    Expected radiation hazard from SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) events for space probes in interplanetary space at different distances from the Sun, for satellites in magnetosphere of the Earth on different orbits, for planes on different airlines, and on people and technology on the ground on different altitudes and cutoff rigidities i