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Sample records for 11-yr solar cycle

  1. The climate response to the 11-yr solar cycle in the CMIP5 historical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misios, Stergios; Mitchell, Daniel; Tourpali, Kleareti; Gray, Lesley; Matthes, Katja

    2014-05-01

    The variation of the incoming solar irradiance over the course of the 11-yr solar cycle is a significant source of stratospheric variability. Dynamical mechanisms could amplify and transfer solar signals from the stratosphere to the troposphere and even the surface in a "top-down" pathway. In the opposite direction, "bottom-up" mechanisms could mediate solar signals from the surface to the troposphere via air-sea coupling. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the climate response to the 11-yr solar cycle, as brought about from both "top-down" and "bottom-up" mechanisms, because for the first time different coupled models are driven by spectral solar irradiance and ozone changes. We here analyse archived "historical" simulations (1850-2005) with a lead/lag multiple linear regression model, focusing onto the troposphere and oceans. Our analysis identifies a delayed warming in the troposphere and surface, which is explained by the delayed response of the oceans. In fact, the delayed warming penetrates down to ~150 m from the ocean surface. A significant warming is identified over the western Pacific and Indian oceans whereas an anomalous cooling is simulated in the eastern Pacific. This meridional temperature dipole introduces changes in the Walker circulation, precipitation, convective activity with concomitant effects on the Northern Pacific. We further categorize models in "low- and high-top, depending on the inclusion or not of detailed stratospheric dynamics. This classification is found educative when the relative role of the "top-down" versus "bottom-up" forcing is investigated.

  2. On the Response of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Stratospheric Oxone and Temperature to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, E. E.

    2008-01-01

    Results are presented on responses in 14-yr time series of stratospheric ozone and temperature from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) to a solar cycle (SC-like) variation. The ozone time series are for ten, 20-degree wide, latitude bins from 45S to 45N and for thirteen "half-Umkehr" layers of about 2.5 km thickness and extending from 63 hPa to 0.7 hPa. The temperature time series analyses were restricted to pressure levels in the range of 2 hPa to 0.7 hPa. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were applied to each of the 130 time series of zonally-averaged, sunrise plus sunset ozone points over that latitude/pressure domain. A simple, 11-yr periodic term and a linear trend term were added to the final MLR models after their seasonal and interannual terms had been determined. Where the amplitudes of the 11-yr terms were significant, they were in-phase with those of the more standard proxies for the solar uv-flux. The max minus min response for ozone is of order 2 to 3% from about 2 to 5 hPa and for the latitudes of 45S to 45N. There is also a significant max minus min response of order 1 K for temperature between 15S and 15N and from 2 to 0.7 hPa. The associated linear trends for ozone are near zero in the upper stratosphere. Negative ozone trends of 4 to 6%/decade were found at 10 to 20 hPa across the low to middle latitudes of both hemispheres. It is concluded that the analyzed responses from the HALOE data are of good quality and can be used to evaluate the responses of climate/chemistry models to a solar cycle forcing.

  3. Improving solar 11yr magnetic cycle prediction by using variational data assimilation in a mean field dynamo model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan-Sacha; Fournier, Alexandre; Talagrand, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    We present our recent effort to implement modern variational data assimilation techniques into a 2.5 D mean field solar dynamo code. This work extend the work of (Jouve et al. 2011, ApJ) to take into account the correct spherical geometry and meridional circulation into so-called Babccok-Leigthon flux transport dynamo models. Based on twin-experiments, in which we observe our dynamo simulations, and on a well defined cost function using toroidal and poloidal field observations we are able to recover the main attributes of the dynamo solution used to test our data assimilation algorithm. By assimilating solar data (such as Wolf number or butterfly diagram) we are starting to deduce the profile and temporal variations of key ingredients of the solar dynamo. We find that the data sampling and the temporal window are key to get reliable results. We show how such powerful technique can be used to improve our ability to predict the solar magnetic activity. This work is supported by Idex Sorbonne Paris Cite via the DAMSE project.

  4. Plasma Flows in the Heliosheath along the Voyager 1 and 2 Trajectories due to Effects of the 11 yr Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provornikova, E.; Opher, M.; Izmodenov, V. V.; Richardson, J. D.; Toth, G.

    2014-10-01

    We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variations in the solar wind (SW) parameters on the flows in the heliosheath using a new three-dimensional time-dependent model of the interaction between the SW and the interstellar medium. For boundary conditions in the model we use realistic time and the latitudinal dependence of the SW parameters obtained from SOHO/SWAN and interplanetary scintillation data for the last two solar cycles (1990-2011). This data set generally agrees with the in situ Ulysses measurements from 1991 to 2009. For the first ~30 AU of the heliosheath the time-dependent model predicts constant radial flow speeds at Voyager 2 (V2), which is consistent with observations and different from the steady models that show a radial speed decrease of 30%. The model shows that V2 was immersed in SW with speeds of 500-550 km s-1 upstream of the termination shock before 2009 and in wind with upstream speeds of 450-500 km s-1 after 2009. The model also predicts that the radial velocity along the Voyager 1 (V1) trajectory is constant across the heliosheath, contrary to observations. This difference in observations implies that additional effects may be responsible for the different flows at V1 and V2. The model predicts meridional flows (VN) higher than those observed because of the strong bluntness of the heliosphere shape in the N direction in the model. The modeled tangential velocity component (VT) at V2 is smaller than observed. Both VN and VT essentially depend on the shape of the heliopause.

  5. Plasma flows in the heliosheath along the Voyager 1 and 2 trajectories due to effects of the 11 yr solar cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Provornikova, E.; Opher, M.; Izmodenov, V. V.; Richardson, J. D.; Toth, G. E-mail: mopher@bu.edu E-mail: jdr@space.mit.edu

    2014-10-10

    We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variations in the solar wind (SW) parameters on the flows in the heliosheath using a new three-dimensional time-dependent model of the interaction between the SW and the interstellar medium. For boundary conditions in the model we use realistic time and the latitudinal dependence of the SW parameters obtained from SOHO/SWAN and interplanetary scintillation data for the last two solar cycles (1990-2011). This data set generally agrees with the in situ Ulysses measurements from 1991 to 2009. For the first ∼30 AU of the heliosheath the time-dependent model predicts constant radial flow speeds at Voyager 2 (V2), which is consistent with observations and different from the steady models that show a radial speed decrease of 30%. The model shows that V2 was immersed in SW with speeds of 500-550 km s{sup –1} upstream of the termination shock before 2009 and in wind with upstream speeds of 450-500 km s{sup –1} after 2009. The model also predicts that the radial velocity along the Voyager 1 (V1) trajectory is constant across the heliosheath, contrary to observations. This difference in observations implies that additional effects may be responsible for the different flows at V1 and V2. The model predicts meridional flows (VN) higher than those observed because of the strong bluntness of the heliosphere shape in the N direction in the model. The modeled tangential velocity component (VT) at V2 is smaller than observed. Both VN and VT essentially depend on the shape of the heliopause.

  6. Multiscale comparative spectral analysis of satellite total solar irradiance measurements from 2003 to 2013 reveals a planetary modulation of solar activity and its nonlinear dependence on the 11 yr solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, N.; Willson, R. C.

    2013-11-01

    Herein we adopt a multiscale dynamical spectral analysis technique to compare and study the dynamical evolution of the harmonic components of the overlapping ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 (Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Satellite/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor 3), SOHO/VIRGO (Solar and Heliopheric Observatory/Variability of solar Irradiance and Gravity Oscillations), and SORCE/TIM (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment/Total Irradiance Monitor) total solar irradiance (TSI) records during 2003.15 to 2013.16 in solar cycles 23 and 24. The three TSI time series present highly correlated patterns. Significant power spectral peaks are common to these records and are observed at the following periods: ~ 0.070 yr, ~ 0.097 yr, ~ 0.20 yr, ~ 0.25 yr, ~ 0.30-0.34 yr, and ~ 0.39 yr. Less certain spectral peaks occur at about 0.55 yr, 0.60-0.65 yr and 0.7-0.9 yr. Four main frequency periods at ~ 4.8 days (~ 0.068 yr), ~ 27.3 days (~ 0.075 yr), at ~ 34-35 days (~ 0.093-0.096 yr), and ~ 36-38 days (~ 0.099-0.104 yr) characterize the solar rotation cycle. The amplitude of these oscillations, in particular of those with periods larger than 0.5 yr, appears to be modulated by the ~ 11 yr solar cycle. Similar harmonics have been found in other solar indices. The observed periodicities are found highly coherent with the spring, orbital and synodic periods of Mercury, Venus, Earth and Jupiter. We conclude that solar activity is likely modulated by planetary gravitational and electromagnetic forces acting on the Sun. The strength of the Sun's response to planetary forcing depends nonlinearly on the state of internal solar dynamics; planetary-Sun coupling effects are enhanced during solar activity maxima and attenuated during minima.

  7. The Surface Climate Response to 11-Yr Solar Forcing During Northern Winter: Tests of the Stratospheric (UV-Ozone) Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hood, Lon; Schimanke, Semjon; Spangehl, Thomas; Bal, Sourabh; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2014-05-01

    We have previously reported comparisons of observational estimates of the surface climate response to 11-yr solar forcing during northern winter with a series of GCM simulations that differed only in the assumed solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone (Hood et al., J. of Climate, 2013). Here, we test further whether the most successful model simulation was primarily a consequence of stratospheric (solar UV-ozone) forcing by carrying out multiple linear regression analyses of model zonal wind and temperature data, and then comparing the results to similar analyses of observed zonal wind, temperature, and ozone data. It is found that the GCM simulation that produced a qualitative agreement with the observationally estimated surface climate response is characterized by an unusually strong zonal wind anomaly in the northern midlatitude upper stratosphere during early winter at solar maximum relative to solar minimum (about 5.5 m/s). The centennial period of this simulation that produced the best agreement yielded an even larger anomaly (7.5 m/s). This zonal wind anomaly is similar to (but smaller than) that derived from observations and is a consequence of the stronger latitudinal gradient of ozone and radiative heating in the upper stratosphere during early winter for this simulation. It propagates poleward and downward during the winter, perturbing tropospheric circulation and initiating ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that lead to the observed surface climate response. However, a major remaining uncertainty is the true magnitude of the solar forcing in the upper stratosphere that ultimately leads to the surface climate response. In addition to uncertainties in the solar spectral irradiance variation, there are also uncertainties in the true 11-year variation of ozone in the upper stratosphere that contribute indirectly to the radiative forcing. In particular, current observational evidence indicates that the 11-year variation of upper stratospheric ozone is

  8. Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Richardson, I. G.; Ling, A. G.

    2011-01-01

    In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.

  9. The Surface Climate Response to 11-Yr Solar Forcing During Northern Winter: Tests of the Stratospheric (UV-Ozone) Forcing Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hood, L. L.; Schimanke, S.; Spangehl, T.; Bal, S.; Cubasch, U.

    2013-12-01

    We have previously reported observational analyses and comparisons with model simulations of the sea level pressure and sea surface temperature responses to 11-yr solar forcing during northern winter using an atmosphere-ocean GCM (EGMAM) (1,2). The model has no interactive chemistry so the photochemical component of the stratospheric response was simulated by prescribing a series of possible solar cycle ozone variations. It was found that the results were sensitive to the assumed ozone variation. In particular, a relatively strong ozone variation estimated from satellite data at latitudes up to 60 degrees, declining linearly to zero at the poles, yielded the best overall agreement with the observational analyses, especially during a selected centennial period. Here, we test further whether the most successful model simulation was primarily a consequence of stratospheric (solar UV-ozone) forcing by carrying out multiple linear regression analyses of model zonal wind and temperature data. Results are compared to similar analyses of observed zonal wind, temperature, and ozone data. It is found that the GCM simulation that produced a first-order agreement with the observationally estimated surface climate response is characterized by an unusually strong zonal wind anomaly in the northern midlatitude upper stratosphere during early winter at solar maximum relative to solar minimum (about 5.5 m/s). The centennial period of this simulation that produced the best agreement yielded an even larger zonal wind anomaly (7.5 m/s). This wind anomaly is qualitatively similar to that derived from observations and is a consequence of the stronger latitudinal gradient of ozone and radiative heating in the upper stratosphere for this simulation. It propagates poleward and downward during the winter, perturbing tropospheric circulation and initiating ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that lead to the observed SLP and SST responses. Overall, therefore, the results support the ``top

  10. CMEs, the Tail of the Solar Wind Magnetic Field Distribution, and 11-yr Cosmic Ray Modulation at 1 AU. Revised

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Richardson, I. G.

    2003-01-01

    Using a recent classification of the solar wind at 1 AU into its principal components (slow solar wind, high-speed streams, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for 1972-2000, we show that the monthly-averaged galactic cosmic ray intensity is anti-correlated with the percentage of time that the Earth is imbedded in CME flows. We suggest that this correlation results primarily from a CME related change in the tail of the distribution function of hourly-averaged values of the solar wind magnetic field (B) between solar minimum and solar maximum. The number of high-B (square proper subset 10 nT) values increases by a factor of approx. 3 from minimum to maximum (from 5% of all hours to 17%), with about two-thirds of this increase due to CMEs. On an hour-to-hour basis, average changes of cosmic ray intensity at Earth become negative for solar wind magnetic field values square proper subset 10 nT.

  11. Bimodal Structure of the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Z. L.

    2015-05-01

    Some properties of the 11 yr solar cycle can be explained by the current solar dynamo models. However, some other features remain not well understood such as the asymmetry of the cycle, the double-peaked structure, and the “Waldmeier effect” that a stronger cycle tends to have less rise time and a shorter cycle length. We speculate that the solar cycle is governed by a bi-dynamo model forming two stochastic processes depicted by a bimodal Gaussian function with a time gap of about 2 yr, from which the above features can be reasonably explained. The first one describes the main properties of the cycle dominated by the current solar dynamo models, and the second one occurs either in the rising phase as a short weak explosive perturbation or in the declining phase as a long stochastic perturbation. The above function is the best one selected from several in terms of the Akaike information criterion. Through analyzing different distributions, one might speculate about the dominant physical process inside the convection zone. The secondary (main) process is found to be closely associated with complicated (simple) active ranges. In effect, the bi-dynamo model is a reduced form of a multi-dynamo model, which could occur from the base of the convection zone through its envelope and from low to high heliographic latitude, reflecting the active belts in the convection zone. These results are insensitive to the hemispheric asymmetry, smoothing filters, and distribution functions selected and are expected to be helpful in understanding the formation of solar and stellar cycles.

  12. Solar Cycle Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2011-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan your next vacation. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. I will describe the current state of solar cycle predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

  13. Solar Cycle Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  14. Solar cyclicity: fine structure and forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khramova, M.; Kononovich, E.; Krasotkin, S.

    2002-12-01

    The principal components of the solar activity indices time-series were obtained by the Singular Spectrum Analysis method and identified with the centennial cycle, 11-yr variation and quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO). The amplitudes of the QBO and 11-yr cycle were found to be modulated by the centennial cycle. The following properties of the centennial cycle were settled: the maximum phase has the double-peak structure; the rising part of the centennial cycle (including the first maximum) as a rule covers three solar cycles; the first and the second maximum of the centennial cycle are separated by one small or medium 11-yr cycle; the second maximum consists of just one 11-yr cycle; the fall-down part of the centennial cycle includes four 11-yr cycles. The centennial cycle was found to consists of nine 11-yr cycles and its duration was calculated to be 100±5 years. The double-peak structure was found to be an essential property of the solar cycle maximum phase. The forecast of the Wolf numbers for the solar cycle 24 was obtained.

  15. Deciphering solar magnetic activity. I. On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features

    SciTech Connect

    McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Markel, Robert S.; Thompson, Michael J.; Leamon, Robert J.; Malanushenko, Anna V.; Davey, Alisdair R.; Howe, Rachel; Krista, Larisza D.; Cirtain, Jonathan W.; Gurman, Joseph B.; Pesnell, William D.

    2014-09-01

    Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ∼22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ∼11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

  16. Solar activity secular cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kramynin, A. P.; Mordvinov, A. V.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term variations in solar activity secular cycles have been studied using a method for the expansion of reconstructed sunspot number series Sn( t) for 11400 years in terms of natural orthogonal functions. It has been established that three expansion components describe more than 98% of all Sn( t) variations. In this case, the contribution of the first expansion component is about 92%. The averaged form of the 88year secular cycle has been determined based on the form of the first expansion coordinate function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle have been revealed based on the time function conjugate to the first function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle coincide with those observed in the Sn( t) series spectrum. A change in the secular cycle form and the time variations in this form are described by the second and third expansion components, the contributions of which are about 4 and 2%, respectively. The variations in the steepness of the secular cycle branches are more pronounced in the 200-year cycle, and the secular cycle amplitude varies more evidently in the 2300-year cycle.

  17. Solar Cycle 23: An Anomalous Cycle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Toma, G.; White, O. R.; Chapman, G. A.; Walton, S. R.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.

    2004-05-01

    We discuss the importance of solar cycle 23 as a magnetically simpler cycle and a variant from recent cycles. We see a significant decrease in sunspot activity in cycle 23 relative to cycle 22, but the strength of the total solar irradiance (TSI) cycle did not change significantly. The latest SOHO/VIRGO TSI time series is analyzed using new solar variability measures obtained from full-disk solar images made at the San Fernando Observatory and the MgII 280nm index. The TSI record for the period 1986 to the present is reproduced within about 130ppm RMS using only two indices representing photospheric and chromospheric sources of variability due to magnetic regions. This is in spite of the difference in magnetic activity between the two cycles. Our results show the continuing improvement in TSI measurements and surrogates containing information necessary to account for irradiance variability.

  18. Solar magnetic cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harvey, Karen L.

    1993-01-01

    Using NSO/KP magnetograms, the pattern and rate of the emergence of magnetic flux and the development of the large-scale patterns of unipolar fields are considered in terms of the solar magnetic cycle. Magnetic flux emerges in active regions at an average rate of 2 x 10(exp 21) Mx/day, approximately 10 times the estimated rate in ephemeral regions. Observations are presented that demonstrate that the large-scale unipolar fields originate in active regions and activity nests. For cycle 21, the net contribution of ephemeral regions to the axial dipole moment of the Sun is positive, and is of opposite sign to that of active regions. Its amplitude is smaller by a factor of 6, assuming an average lifetime of ephemeral regions of 8 hours. Active regions larger than 4500 Mm(sup 2) are the primary contributor to the cycle variation of Sun's axial dipole moment.

  19. Solar Cycle 23: An Anomalous Cycle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Toma, Giuliana; White, Oran R.; Chapman, Gary A.; Walton, Stephen R.; Preminger, Dora G.; Cookson, Angela M.

    2004-07-01

    The latest SOHO VIRGO total solar irradiance (TSI) time series is analyzed using new solar variability measures obtained from full-disk solar images made at the San Fernando Observatory and the Mg II 280 nm index. We discuss the importance of solar cycle 23 as a magnetically simpler cycle and a variant from recent cycles. Our results show the continuing improvement in TSI measurements and surrogates containing information necessary to account for irradiance variability. Use of the best surrogate for irradiance variability due to photospheric features (sunspots and faculae) and chromospheric features (plages and bright network) allows fitting the TSI record to within an rms difference of 130 ppm for the period 1986 to the present. Observations show that the strength of the TSI cycle did not change significantly despite the decrease in sunspot activity in cycle 23 relative to cycle 22. This points to the difficulty of modeling TSI back to times when only sunspot observations were available.

  20. Solar cycle variations in the solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freeman, John W.; Lopez, Ramon E.

    1986-01-01

    The solar cycle variations of various solar wind parameters are reviewed. It is shown that there is a gradual decrease in the duration of high-speed streams from the declining phase of solar cycle 20 through the ascending phase of cycle 21 and a corresponding decrease in the annual average of the proton speed toward solar maximum. Beta, the ratio of the proton thermal pressure to magnetic pressure, undergoes a significant solar cycle variation, as expected from the variation in the IMF. Individual hourly averages of beta often exceed unity with 20 cases exceeding 10 and one case as high as 25. The Alfven Mach number shows a solar cycle variation similar to beta, lower aboard solar maximum. High-speed streams can be seen clearly in epsilon and the y component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

  1. Solar Cycle Variations in the Solar Interior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, E. J.

    2012-12-01

    This presentation will review the observational evidence for solar cycle-dependent changes in the structure and dynamical motions of the solar interior. It will include the results of studies that have been carried out using the tools of both global and local heiloseismology during Solar Cycles 22, 23, and 24. The presentation will describe results obtained with both ground- and space-based helioseismic programs, and it will also describe the role that these helioseismic studies have played in providing inputs to theoretical studies of the solar dynamo. Among the topics that will be covered are temporal changes in the solar torsional oscillations, the solar meridional circulation, the solar seismic radius, the subsurface vorticity, and the solar p-mode oscillation frequencies and widths. Also covered will be evidence for temporal changes in the solar interior that are related to the emergence of active regions on both the near and far sides of the Sun.

  2. Solar Cycle Predictions (Invited Review)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2012-11-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions, just as weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as the reduced propellant load is consumed more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5 - 20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations of how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future are discussed.

  3. Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

    2007-01-01

    We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears

  4. Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

    2007-01-01

    We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes

  5. Solar Proton Events in Six Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vitaly, Ishkov

    Based on materials the catalogs of solar proton events (SPE) in 1955 ‒ 2010 and list SPE for the current 24 solar cycle (SC) are examined confirmed SPE with E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 proton cm-2 s ster-1 (pfu) from Švestka and Simon’s (1955 - 1969) and 5 volumes Logachev’s (1970 - 2006) Catalogs of SPE. Historically thus it was formed, that the measurements of the proton fluxes began in the epoch “increased” solar activity (SC 18 ‒ 22), and includes transition period of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction from epoch “increased” to the epoch “lowered” solar activity (22 ‒ 23 SC). In current 24 SC ‒ first SC of the incipient epoch of “lowered” SA ‒ SPE realize under the new conditions, to that of previously not observed. As showed a study of five solar cycles with the reliable measurements of E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 pfu (1964 - 2013): ‒ a quantity of SPEs remained approximately identical in SC 20, 21, somewhat decreased in the initial solar cycle of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (22), but it returned to the same quantity in, the base for the period of reconstruction, SC 23. ‒ Into the first 5 years of the each solar cycle development the rate of the proton generation events noticeably increased in 22 cycles of solar activity and returned to the average in cycles 23 and 24. ‒ Extreme solar flare events are achieved, as a rule, in the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (August - September 1859; June 1991; October ‒ November 2003.), it is confirmed also for SPE: the extreme fluxes of solar protons (S4) except one (August 1972) were occurred in period of perestroika (SC 22 and 23). This can speak, that inside the epochs SA, when the generation of magnetic field in the convective zone works in the steady-state regime, extreme SPE are improbable. ‒ The largest in the fluxes of protons (S3, S4) occur in the complexes of the active regions flare events, where magnetic field more

  6. Solar Cycle 25: Another Moderate Cycle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, R. H.; Jiang, J.; Schüssler, M.

    2016-06-01

    Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 ± 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2 G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not much higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.

  7. Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crooker, N. U.

    1983-01-01

    Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

  8. Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S.

    1988-01-01

    Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

  9. Recurrent high-speed streams in the solar wind during the decay phase of solar cycle No. 21: observations with a wide-angle ion energy spectrometer on Prognoz-9

    SciTech Connect

    Gringauz, K.I.; Bezrukikh, V.V.; Verigin, M.I.; Kotova, G.A.

    1987-07-01

    Solar wind measurements were made on Prognoz 9 from July 1983 to February 1984 during the decay phase of solar cycle No. 21. The measurements were made by means of the D-137A wide-angle ion energy spectrometer. During this time period, high-speed streams were observed in the solar wind which were stable for intervals of 5-6 solar rotations. In several of the streams, the speed was as high as 700-800 km/sec. They have compared the Prognoz 9 data with data obtained by analogous measurements in the preceding solar cycle. This comparison leads them to the conclusion that the presence of recurrent high-speed streams is a regular feature during the decay phases of the 11-yr cycles of solar activity, and is one of the manifestations of these cycles.

  10. Neutral solar wind evolution during solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bzowski, M.; Rucinski, D.

    1995-01-01

    The time dependent model of the expected fluxes of the neutral H and He components of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere is discussed. The model takes into account typical temporal evolution of the distribution of neutral interstellar gases (hydrogen and helium) in the interplanetary space due to solar cycle effects and the long term variability of the solar wind. The contribution of different charge exchange processes to the production of particular NSW element is presented. The distribution of the NSW flux is analysed with respect to the heliocentric distance and azimuthal angle from the Interstellar Wind apex. It demonstrates significant, time-dependent upwind/downwind H and He flux asymmentries. It is shown that the most pronounced modulation of the NSW flux is expected around the solar maximum epoch, when a strong decrease of the energetic H flux by two three orders of magnitude at 1 AU is predicted. The computations show that in the inner solar system (approx. 1 AU) energetic helium atoms production in the downwind region usually dominates the production of the hydrogen component This leads to the conclusion that the NSW composition at the Earth orbit strongly depends on time and the position of the observation point in reference to the apex direction.

  11. Magnetic Flux Conservation in the Heliosheath Including Solar Cycle Variations of Magnetic Field Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, A. T.; Opher, M.; Provornikova, E.; Richardson, J. D.; Tóth, G.

    2015-04-01

    In the heliosheath (HS), Voyager 2 has observed a flow with constant radial velocity and magnetic flux conservation. Voyager 1, however, has observed a decrease in the flow’s radial velocity and an order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux. We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variation of the magnetic field strength on the magnetic flux within the HS using a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere. We use time and latitude-dependent solar wind velocity and density inferred from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/SWAN and interplanetary scintillations data and implemented solar cycle variations of the magnetic field derived from 27 day averages of the field magnitude average of the magnetic field at 1 AU from the OMNI database. With the inclusion of the solar cycle time-dependent magnetic field intensity, the model matches the observed intensity of the magnetic field in the HS along both Voyager 1 and 2. This is a significant improvement from the same model without magnetic field solar cycle variations, which was over a factor of two larger. The model accurately predicts the radial velocity observed by Voyager 2; however, the model predicts a flow speed ˜100 km s-1 larger than that derived from LECP measurements at Voyager 1. In the model, magnetic flux is conserved along both Voyager trajectories, contrary to observations. This implies that the solar cycle variations in solar wind magnetic field observed at 1 AU does not cause the order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux observed in the Voyager 1 data.

  12. Solar Wind Trends in the Current Solar Cycle (STEREO Observations)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galvin, Antoinette; Simunac, Kristin; Farrugia, Charles

    2016-04-01

    We examine solar wind ion characteristics for the current solar cycle, utilizing near-Earth (OMNI) and STEREO data. Sources of the solar wind are known to be linked to the phase of the solar cycle and include coronal holes, coronal mass ejections, and multiple cycle-dependent sources for the so-called "slow" solar wind. This past solar minimum was characterized by weak transients and sustained periods of slow solar wind, and included cases of "slow" and "slower" solar wind stream interactions. In contrast, intervals around solar maximum have included extremely fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections, with one such ICME observed in situ by STEREO A exceeding 2000 km/s at 1 AU. We will look at specific case studies of solar wind observed in situ by STEREO, particularly for solar wind proton and iron ions.

  13. A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

    1999-01-01

    A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

  14. Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H2O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, A. V.; Rozanov, E.; Shapiro, A. I.; Wang, S.; Egorova, T.; Schmutz, W.; Peter, Th.

    2011-10-01

    The mesospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) is mainly produced by the water vapor (H2O) photolysis and could be considered as a proxy for the influence of the solar irradiance variability on the mesosphere. We analyze the tropical mean response of the mesospheric OH and H2O data as observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) to 27-day solar variability. The analysis is performed for two time periods corresponding to the different phases of the 11-yr cycle: from December 2004 to December 2005 ("solar maximum" period with a pronounced 27-day solar cycle) and from November 2008 to November 2009 ("solar minimum" period with a vague 27-day solar cycle). We demonstrate, for the first time, that in the mesosphere the daily time series of OH concentrations correlate well with the solar irradiance (correlation coefficients up to 0.79) at zero time-lag. At the same time H2O anticorrelates (correlation coefficients up to -0.74) with the solar irradiance at non-zero time-lag. We found that the response of OH and H2O to the 27-day variability of the solar irradiance is strong for the solar maximum and negligible for the solar minimum conditions. It allows us to suggest that the 27-day cycle in the solar irradiance and in OH and H2O are physically connected.

  15. How active was solar cycle 22?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

    1993-01-01

    Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

  16. Causal relationships between solar and geomagnetic cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponyavin, D. I.

    2006-12-01

    Sunspots are sui generis "hot spots" that display the most responsive regions to solar cycle changes. Rudolf Wolf in 1848 derived a simple measure of solar cyclicity by counting a number of sunspots and sunspot groups at the solar disk. Edward Sabine in 1852 announced that geomagnetic cycle was "absolutely identical" to solar cycle. However geomagnetic and sunspot indices due to their different nature do not exhibit similar variations and often manifest out of phase behavior. Long-term sunspot and geomagnetic time-series were studied using wavelet transforms and recurrence plot techniques. We have analyzed similarities and relationships between sunspot and geomagnetic cycles in order to find recurrence, synchronization and phase differences on interannual scale. Predictive schemes of the current and future solar cycles using geomagnetic proxies were analyzed and discussed.

  17. Signature of the 27-day solar rotation cycle in mesospheric OH and H2O observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, A. V.; Rozanov, E.; Shapiro, A. I.; Wang, S.; Egorova, T.; Schmutz, W.; Peter, Th.

    2012-04-01

    The mesospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) is mainly produced by the water vapor (H2O) photolysis and could be considered as a proxy for the influence of the solar irradiance variability on the mesosphere. We analyze the tropical mean response of the mesospheric OH and H2O data as observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) to 27-day solar variability. The analysis is performed for two time periods corresponding to the different phases of the 11-yr cycle: from December 2004 to December 2005 (the period of "high activity" with a pronounced 27-day solar cycle) and from August 2008 to August 2009 ("solar minimum" period with a vague 27-day solar cycle). We demonstrate, for the first time, that in the mesosphere the daily time series of OH concentrations correlate well with the solar irradiance (correlation coefficients up to 0.79) at zero time-lag. At the same time H2O anticorrelates (correlation coefficients up to -0.74) with the solar irradiance at non-zero time-lag. We found that the response of OH and H2O to the 27-day variability of the solar irradiance is strong for the period of the high solar activity and negligible for the solar minimum conditions. It allows us to suggest that the 27-day cycle in the solar irradiance and in OH and H2O are physically connected.

  18. Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.

    1997-01-01

    Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an

  19. Polar Network Index as a Magnetic Proxy for the Solar Cycle Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priyal, Muthu; Banerjee, Dipankar; Karak, Bidya Binay; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Ravindra, B.; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai; Singh, Jagdev

    2014-09-01

    The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k × 4k CCD and have higher resolution (~0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.

  20. POLAR NETWORK INDEX AS A MAGNETIC PROXY FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE STUDIES

    SciTech Connect

    Priyal, Muthu; Banerjee, Dipankar; Ravindra, B.; Singh, Jagdev; Karak, Bidya Binay; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai E-mail: dipu@iiap.res.in

    2014-09-20

    The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k × 4k CCD and have higher resolution (∼0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.

  1. Solar Irradiance Observations during Solar Cycles 22 and 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, O. R.; de Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Walton, S. R.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.; Harvey, K. L.; Livingston, W. C.

    2002-05-01

    We present a study of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variations during solar cycles 22 and 23 from 1986 to the present. We will review the recent measurements of solar magnetism, solar activity, and radiative variability from both ground-based and space observatories and compare TSI observations with empirical models of solar irradiance variability based on facular and sunspot observations. To estimate facular/plage and sunspot contribution to TSI we use the photometric indices derived from the SFO full-disk solar images from 1988 to the present in the CaIIK line at 393.4nm and in the red continuum at 672.3 nm. In these indices, each solar structure is included with its measured contrast and area. We also use the MgII core-to-wing index from space observatories as an alternative index for plages and network. Comparison of the rising and maximum phases of the two solar cycles, shows that cycle 23 is magnetically weaker with sunspot and facular area almost a factor of two lower than in solar cycle 22. However, analysis of multi-wavelength observations indicate that different wavelengths respond differently to the decreased magnetic activity during solar cycle 23.

  2. Correlations of solar cycle 22 UV irradiance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Floyd, L.; Brueckner, G.; Crane, P.; Prinz, D.; Herring, L.

    1997-01-01

    The solar ultraviolet spectral irradiance monitor (SUSIM) onboard the upper atmosphere research satellite (UARS) is an absolutely calibrated UV spectrometer which has measured the solar spectral irradiance over the wavelengths 115 nm to 410 nm since October 1991. This data set now extends for about six years from near the peak of solar cycle 22, through its minimum, to the initial rise associated with solar cycle 23. Generally, the time series of UV spectral irradiances obtained shows behavior similar to that of other solar activity indices. The conditions on the sun, which can in result in dominant 13.5-day periodicity, are analyzed and illustrated. It is found that any combination of presence or absence of dominant 13.5-day in UV irradiance and solar wind velocity is possible depending entirely on the particular surface distribution and orientation of solar active regions.

  3. A Note on Solar Cycle Length Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaquero, J. M.; García, J. A.; Gallego, M. C.

    2006-05-01

    Recently, new estimates of the solar cycle length (SCL) have been calculated using the Zurich Sunspot Number (R Z) and the Regression-Fourier-Calculus (RFC)-method, a mathematically rigorous method involving multiple regression, Fourier approximation, and analytical expressions for the first derivative. In this short contribution, we show estimates of the solar cycle length using the RFC-method and the Group Sunspot Number (R G) instead the R Z. Several authors have showed the advantages of R G for the analysis of sunspot activity before 1850. The use of R G solves some doubtful solar cycle length estimates obtained around 1800 using R Z.

  4. The solar cycle variation of the solar wind helium abundance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ogilvie, K. W.; Hirshberg, J.

    1974-01-01

    A critical survey was made of the experimental evidence for a variation of the relative abundance by number h, (n alpha/np), of helium in the solar wind. The abundance is found to vary by delta h = 0.01 + or - 0.01 from 0.035 to 0.045 over solar cycle 20. Changes in the average bulk speed during the solar activity cycle was insufficient to account for this increase in h with the solar cycle. The slope of the linear relation between h and the plasma bulk speed is also found to vary, being greatest around solar maximum. An attempt is made to explain the 30% variation in h as the result of the variation in the number of major solar flares over a solar cycle. These obvious transients are apparently not numerous enough to explain the observed variation, but the reasonable expectation remains that the transients observed recently by Skylab which may occur more frequently than major flares could augment those associated with major flares. Since the solar wind flux is not observed to increase at solar maximum, the abundance of Helium cannot be proportional to the proton flux leaving the sun unless the solar wind comes from a smaller area of the sun at maximum than at minimum.

  5. Solar cycle 24 from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogurtsov, M. G.

    2016-03-01

    The predictions of the maximum yearly mean sunspot number in the current cycle 24 made by means of the astrophysical approach (by analyzing the instrumental data on solar activity and using various dynamo models) and the paleoastrophysical approach (by analyzing the paleoreconstructions of solar activity spanning the interval from 8555 BC to 1605 AD) are compared. The paleoastrophysical predictions are shown to be considerably more accurate. The amplitude of the next cycle 25 is predicted. It is shown that from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics, cycle 25 will most likely be of medium power, R max(25) = 85.0 ± 30.5.

  6. Solar cycle variations in IMF intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, J. H.

    1979-01-01

    Annual averages of logarithms of hourly interplanetary magnetic field intensities, obtained from geocentric spacecraft between November 1963 and December 1977, reveal the following solar cycle variation. For 2 to 3 years at each solar minimum period, the IMF intensity is depressed by 10-15 percent relative to its mean value realized during a broad nine-year period centered at solar maximum. No systematic variations occur during this nine-year period. The solar minimum decrease, although small relative to variations in some other solar wind parameters, is both statistically and physically significant.

  7. Solar cycle variations in IMF intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, J. H.

    1979-01-01

    Annual averages of logarithms of hourly interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensities, obtained from geocentric spacecraft between November 1963 and December 1977, reveal the following solar cycle variation. For 2-3 years at each solar minimum period, the IMF intensity is depressed by 10-15% relative to its mean value realized during a broad 9-year period centered at solar maximum. No systematic variations occur during this 9-year period. The solar minimum decrease, although small in relation to variations in some other solar wind parameters, is both statistically and physically significant.

  8. Rankine-cycle solar-cooling systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weathers, H. M.

    1979-01-01

    Report reviews progress made by three contractors to Marshall Space Flight Center and Department of Energy in developing Rankine-cycle machines for solar cooling and testing of commercially available equipment involved.

  9. A Decline in Solar Cycle Strength

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, G. A.; de Toma, G.; Cookson, A.

    2013-12-01

    The strength of solar activity appears to be in decline over the past three solar cycles. The decline is seen in sunspot area, facular/network area and the sunspot number. In addition, cycle 24 has been unusual in that many, if not most, of the bipolar sunspot groups have had only a leader spot with no follower spot. This research was partially supported by grants from NSF and NASA. Corrected spot area from CFDT1 at the San Fernando Observatory

  10. Solar proton events during solar cycles 19, 20, and 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feynman, J.; Armstrong, T. P.; Dao-Gibner, L.; Silverman, S.

    1990-01-01

    Earlier studies based on a single solar cycle had resulted in a sharp division of events into 'ordinary' and 'anomalously large' events. Two such entirely separate distributions imply two entirely separate acceleration mechanisms, one common and the other very rare. The sharp division is neither required nor justified by this larger sample. Instead the event intensity forms a smooth distribution for intensities up to the largest observed implying that any second acceleration mechanism cannot be rare. Also, a clear bimodal variation of annual integrated flux with solar cycle phase but no statistically significant tendency for the large events to avoid sunspot maximum is found. There is almost no relation between the maximum sunspot number in a solar cycle and the solar cycle integrated flux. It is also found that for annual sunspot numbers greater than 35 there is no relation whatsoever between the annual sunspot numbers and annual integrated flux.

  11. Global water cycle and solar activity variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Tameemi, Muthanna A.; Chukin, Vladimir V.

    2016-05-01

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983-2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983-2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983-2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.

  12. Empirical solar/stellar cycle simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Ângela R. G.; Cunha, Margarida S.; Avelino, Pedro P.

    2015-09-01

    As a result of the magnetic cycle, the properties of the solar oscillations vary periodically. With the recent discovery of manifestations of activity cycles in the seismic data of other stars, the understanding of the different contributions to such variations becomes even more important. With this in mind, we built an empirical parameterised model able to reproduce the properties of the sunspot cycle. The resulting simulations can be used to estimate the magnetic-induced frequency shifts.

  13. Forecasting the solar cycle with genetic algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orfila, A.; Ballester, J. L.; Oliver, R.; Alvarez, A.; Tintoré, J.

    2002-04-01

    In the past, it has been postulated that the irregular dynamics of the solar cycle may embed a low order chaotic process (Weiss 1988, 1994; Spiegel 1994) which, if true, implies that the future behaviour of solar activity should be predictable. Here, starting from the historical record of Zürich sunspot numbers, we build a dynamical model of the solar cycle which allows us to make a long-term forecast of its behaviour. Firstly, the deterministic part of the time series has been reconstructed using the Singular Spectrum Analysis and then an evolutionary algorithm (Alvarez et al. 2001), based on Darwinian theories of natural selection and survival and ideally suited for non-linear time series, has been applied. Then, the predictive capability of the algorithm has been tested by comparing the behaviour of solar cycles 19-22 with forecasts made with the algorithm, obtaining results which show reasonable agreement with the known behaviour of those cycles. Next, the forecast of the future behaviour of solar cycle 23 has been performed and the results point out that the level of activity during this cycle will be somewhat smaller than in the two previous ones.

  14. Sudden ionospheric disturbances in solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothmer, Volker; Bernert, Barbara

    2014-05-01

    Sudden ionospheric disturbances in solar cycle 24 Within the framework of the UN International Space Weather Initiative, and building upon the achievements of the International Heliophysical Year, the German project SIMONE (Sun Ionosphere MOnitoring NEtwork) operates several SID monitors provided by the University of Stanford. Here we present an overview of sudden ionospheric disturbances recorded since 2006 at the high school Gymnasium Walsrode until to date. The continous measurements allow a detailed comparison of locally measured SIDs with the general trend of solar activity during the current solar maximum. We further show that the measurements reveal specific information on the variable response of the dayside ionosphere to solar flares.

  15. Missing solar cycle hypothesis and basic statistical regularities of solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogurtsov, M. G.

    2012-12-01

    The basic statistical properties of solar cycles, including the Gnevyshev-Ol' rule, the Waldmeier effect, and the amplitude-period effect, are tested using data on the number of sunspot groups for 1700-1996, considering the hypothesis about a missing solar cycle in the late 18th century. The results show that the division of the long cycle of 1784-1800 into two short cycles—1784-1793 and 1793-1800—alters significantly the pattern of the solar cycles. The Gnevyshev-Ol' cycle intensity effect becomes stronger, and almost all other statistical effects grow weaker. This change is due to the fact that the short and weak cycle of 1793-1800 is statistically very unusual and its features are very different from those of other solar cycles.

  16. Evolution of the solar luminosity during solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, L. A.; Schrijver, C.; DeRosa, M. L.; Norton, A.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Da Silva, L.; Vuets, A.

    2012-12-01

    The effect of the solar activity on the solar luminosity, which is the total electromagnetic solar output, is one of the fundamental questions in solar physics. Changes of the solar luminosity can arise from changes of the energy flux in the convection zone that can also affects other solar parameters such as the surface temperature, the apparent radius and shape, and the symmetry of the radiative field itself. Additionally, understanding the latitudinal distribution of the flux density is needed to compare the solar variability and its stellar analogues. Nevertheless, our observations of the solar flux density are limited to a region near the ecliptic plane, which have provided just a raw estimate of the variability of the solar luminosity. Here we present a reconstruction of the solar flux density and solar luminosity for the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. The reconstruction is based on a combination of a state-of-art solar surface magnetic flux transport model and a semi-empirical total and spectral irradiance model. The flux transport model is based on assimilation of MDI/SOHO and HMI/SDO magnetograms. The irradiance model's free parameters are estimated by minimizing the difference between the model's output and the PMOD Composite of TSI measurements. We have obtained a good agreement between the model's output and the measurements. The distribution of active regions leads to a clear low latitude brightening during the solar maximum. This brightening results from the balance of the contributions from bright (faculae and network) and dark features (sunspots) located in the solar surface, which peaks near the solar equator. As the effects of dark features are limited to a narrower region, the variability of the flux density at the poles is dominated by the evolution of faculae and network. The preliminary results indicate that the heat flux blocked by sunspots is lower than the flux leaked by bright features. Consequently, an increase of the

  17. Evolution of Solar Wind Heavy Ions over the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

    2014-05-01

    Solar wind composition has been shown to effectively discriminate between different types of solar wind, including slow, fast and ICME related wind. The composition reflects the properties of the source regions of the wind in the corona and their evolution. We present the systematic and comprehensive analysis of the ionic and elemental composition observed on ACE over solar cycle 23 from 2000 until 2010. During this period, the Sun evolved through solar maximum to solar minimum. We find significantly lower C, O, and Fe charge states as well as a 50% decrease in heavy ion abundances (He, C, O, Si, Fe) relative to H during this transition towards solar minimum. We also examined the FIP bias. We consider the implications of these findings for solar wind models and for identification of the fast and slow wind.

  18. Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuroda, Yuhji

    2016-04-01

    Climate is known to be affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the winter-mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and late-winter/spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, these signals tend to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period only in the High Solar (HS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

  19. SOLAR CYCLE VARIABILITY AND SURFACE DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION FROM Ca II K-LINE TIME SERIES DATA

    SciTech Connect

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Worden, Simon P.; Keil, Stephen L.

    2013-07-01

    Analysis of over 36 yr of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates 5 components of the variation of the 7 measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period {approx} 11 yr), (b) quasi-periodic variations (periods {approx} 100 days), (c) a broadband stochastic process (wide range of periods), (d) rotational modulation, and (e) random observational errors, independent of (a)-(d). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi-periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (a) and (b) at timescales in the range {approx}0.1-10 yr. These results using only full-disk data suggest that similar analyses will be useful for detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (c) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random process with a power-law slope index that varies in a systematic way. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the more rapid variations of the stochastic process (c). Component (d) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions. Component (e) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory Web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak{sub m}on/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

  20. Solar Cycle Variability and Surface Differential Rotation from Ca II K-line Time Series Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Keil, Stephen L.; Worden, Simon P.

    2013-07-01

    Analysis of over 36 yr of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates 5 components of the variation of the 7 measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period ~ 11 yr), (b) quasi-periodic variations (periods ~ 100 days), (c) a broadband stochastic process (wide range of periods), (d) rotational modulation, and (e) random observational errors, independent of (a)-(d). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi-periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (a) and (b) at timescales in the range ~0.1-10 yr. These results using only full-disk data suggest that similar analyses will be useful for detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (c) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random process with a power-law slope index that varies in a systematic way. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the more rapid variations of the stochastic process (c). Component (d) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions. Component (e) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory Web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

  1. Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

  2. Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes during Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchenko, S. V.; DeLand, M. T.

    2014-07-01

    We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by ~0.6% ± 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% ± 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at λ >~ 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

  3. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles.

    PubMed

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-01-01

    An understanding of the Ohl's Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun's electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun's Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

  4. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-02-01

    An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle.

  5. Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Kim Kwee

    2016-01-01

    An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

  6. Solar Cycle Variation of CMEs and CIRs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.

    2011-01-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) are two solar phenomena that produce large-scale structures in the interplanetary (IP) medium. CMEs evolve into interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and the HSS result in corotating interaction regions (CIRs) when they interact with preceding slow solar wind. CMEs and CIRs originate from closed (active region and filament region) and open (corona) hole) magnetic field regions on the Sun, respectively. These two types of mass emissions from the Sun are responsible for the largest effects on the heliosphere, particularly on Earth's space environment. This paper discussed how these structures and their solar sources vary with the solar cycle and the consequent changes in the geospace impact.

  7. Solar cycle variation of network magnetic elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J. X.; Jin, C. L.

    With the unique database from Michelson Doppler Imager aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million solar network magnetic elements are selected, and the following results are discussed. (1) With increasing flux per element, the number variation of the network elements shows a three-fold scenario: no-correlation, anti-correlation, and correlation with sunspots, respectively. The anti-correlated elements cover flux range of (2.9 - 32.0)× 10^{18} Mx, and occupy 77.2% of total network elements. (2) The latitude distribution of the correlated elements follows the sunspot butterfly diagram in the solar cycle but has wider latitude distribution than sunspots. Furthermore, the anti-correlated elements also show much broad latitude distribution, but a moderate migration toward equator during the solar maximum which was clearly out of phase with sunspots. These results shed new light in understanding anti-correlated variations of small-scale solar activity, e.g., X-ray coronal bright points, and the origin of the Sun's small-scale magnetism.

  8. Solar Cycle Variations in the Polar Ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burrell, A. G.; Yeoman, T. K.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

    2014-12-01

    The polar ionosphere is a dynamic region that readily responds to changes in solar irradiance, solar wind, the magnetosphere, and the neutral atmosphere. The most recent solar minimum brought to light gaps in the current understanding of the relationship between ionospheric structure and solar irradiance. The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) offers an invaluable dataset for studying long-term ionospheric variability, as it has been continuously providing extensive coverage of the northern and southern polar ionosphere since 1995 (the solar minimum preceding the 23rd solar cycle). An under-utilized portion of the SuperDARN dataset is the ground-backscatter: the backscatter that returns from a reflection point on the ground along an open (or irregularity-free) propagation path. The ground-backscatter provides a measure the ionospheric density at the peak of the radar signal's path. These measurements are used to the examine the changes in the bottomside, polar ionosphere over the 23rd and 24th solar cycles.

  9. Coronal Activity and Extended Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altrock, R. C.

    2012-12-01

    Wilson et al. (1988, Nature 333, 748) discussed a number of solar parameters, which appear at high latitudes and gradually migrate towards the equator, merging with the sunspot "butterfly diagram". They found that this concept had been identified by earlier investigators extending back to 1957. They named this process the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC). Altrock (1997, Solar Phys. 170, 411) found that this process continued in Fe XIV 530.3 nm emission features. In cycles 21 - 23 solar maximum occurred when the number of Fe XIV emission regions per day > 0.19 (averaged over 365 days and both hemispheres) first reached latitudes 18°, 21° and 21°, for an average of 20° ± 1.7°. Other recent studies have shown that Torsional Oscillation (TO) negative-shear zones are co-located with the ESC from at least 50° down to the equator and also in the zones where the Rush to the Poles occur. These phenomena indicate that coronal activity occurring up to 50° and higher latitudes is related to TO shear zones, another indicator that the ESC is an important solar process. Another high-latitude process, which appears to be connected with the ESC, is the "Rush to the Poles" ("Rush") of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission, including Fe XIV. The Rush is is a harbinger of solar maximum (cf. Altrock, 2003, Solar Phys. 216, 343). Solar maximum in cycles 21 - 23 occurred when the center line of the Rush reached a critical latitude. These latitudes were 76°, 74° and 78°, respectively, for an average of 76° ± 2°. Applying the above conclusions to Cycle 24 is difficult due to the unusual nature of this cycle. Cycle 24 displays an intermittent "Rush" that is only well-defined in the northern hemisphere. In 2009 an initial slope of 4.6°/yr was found in the north, compared to an average of 9.4 ± 1.7 °/yr in the previous three cycles. This early fit to the Rush would have reached 76° at 2014.6. However, in 2010 the slope increased to 7.5°/yr (an increase

  10. Changes of solar extreme ultraviolet spectrum in solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Yongqiang; Zhang, Donghe; Xiao, Zuo; Huang, Jianping

    2016-07-01

    Following the extreme solar minimum during 2008 - 2009, solar activity keeps low in solar cycle 24 (SC24) and is making SC24 the weakest one of recent cycles. In this paper, we compare the solar EUV spectral irradiance between SC23 and SC24, using the measurements by the Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) on the Thermospheric Ionospheric Mesospheric Energy and Dynamics (TIMED) spacecraft. The EUV spectrum varies with solar activity, and is in general a linear function of a proxy index P= (F10.7 + F10.7A)/2. However, we find the slope of this function, i.e., the change rate of irradiance at each wavelength with P, differs between SC23 and SC24. Consequently, at a given P level, the irradiance in SC24 is higher at wavelength of 30 - 50 nm, but lower at 60 - 120 nm and longward of 140 nm; the inter-cycle variation of EUV irradiance at some wavelengths can be 30 - 40% in absolute flux. We further examine 38 most intense emission lines and find that, taking P as a reference, most of the bright coronal lines get stronger in SC24 and, by contrast, those from the chromosphere and transition region have less variability in SC24. We therefore suggest that, the empirical relation between solar EUV and P, which is derived from observations in previous solar cycles, may not adapt to SC24. The changes in EUV spectrum need to be considered in the models for aeronomic study, especially those using F10.7 index as an input parameter.

  11. Statistical Projection of Solar Cycle 24 for the Exposure Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; Wilson, John W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    A solar cycle statistical model has been developed based on the accumulating cycle sunspot data to estimate future levels of the solar cycle activity. Since the current solar cycle 24 has progressed about three years, the cycle activity levels are estimated with an accurately defined solar minimum 24. Then, solar cycle 24 is projected with the cycle activity levels using the statistical model. The projection of solar cycle 24 is then coupled to space related quantities of interest to radiation protection, because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by the degree of disturbance in the solar surface and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The resultant projection of solar cycle 24 provides a basis for estimating exposure in future space missions, and projection errors can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

  12. Sources of solar wind over the solar activity cycle.

    PubMed

    Poletto, Giannina

    2013-05-01

    Fast solar wind has been recognized, about 40 years ago, to originate in polar coronal holes (CHs), that, since then, have been identified with sources of recurrent high speed wind streams. As of today, however, there is no general consensus about whether there are, within CHs, preferential locations where the solar wind is accelerated. Knowledge of slow wind sources is far from complete as well. Slow wind observed in situ can be traced back to its solar source by backward extrapolation of magnetic fields whose field lines are streamlines of the outflowing plasma. However, this technique often has not the necessary precision for an indisputable identification of the region where wind originates. As the Sun progresses through its activity cycle, different wind sources prevail and contribute to filling the heliosphere. Our present knowledge of different wind sources is here summarized. Also, a Section addresses the problem of wind acceleration in the low corona, as inferred from an analysis of UV data, and illustrates changes between fast and slow wind profiles and possible signatures of changes along the solar cycle. A brief reference to recent work about the deep roots of solar wind and their changes over different solar cycles concludes the review. PMID:25685421

  13. Solar cycle variation in UV solar spectral irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng Yeo, Kok; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.

    2015-08-01

    Solar spectral irradiance, SSI, in the UV has been measured from space, almost without interruption, since 1978. This is accompanied by the development of models aimed at reconstructing SSI by relating its variability to solar magnetic activity. The various satellite records and model reconstructions differ significantly in terms of the variation over the solar cycle, with the consequence that their application to climate models yield qualitatively different results. Here, we highlight the key discrepancies between available records and reconstructions, and discuss the possible underlying causes.

  14. The Heliosphere Through the Solar Activity Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balogh, A.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Suess, S. T.

    2006-01-01

    Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun the heliosphere has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors describe the rise in solar ESA and NASA have now unamiously agreed a third extension to operate the highly successful Ulysses spacecraft until March 2008 and, in 2007 and 2008, the European-built space probe will fly over the poles of the Sun for a third time. This will enable Ulysses to add an important chapter to its survey of the high-latitude heliosphere and this additional material would be included in a 2nd edition of this book.

  15. Study of the Solar Cycle from Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    The objectives of and benefits to be derived from a program of solar cycle research are discussed with emphasis on the role space observations will play in this venture. The strategy to be employed in the coming decade is considered as well as crucial missions, experiments, and the theoretical advances required.

  16. Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics.

    PubMed

    Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

    2013-05-01

    On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996-2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427

  17. Ionospheric criticial frequencies and solar cycle effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Rozelot, Jean Pierre; Yiǧit, Erdal; Elias, Ana; Donmez, Burcin; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl

    2016-07-01

    The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions critical frequencies (foF1 and foF2) are investigated observationally for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We here show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (foF1) peaks at the same time with small SG numbers, while the foF2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers especially during the solar cycle 23. Thus, we may conclude that the sensitivities of ionospheric F1 and F2 region critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers are associated with different physical processes that are yet to be investigated in detail. Such new results provide further evidence that the two ionospheric regions have different responses to the solar activity. We also analyzed short term oscillatory behavior of ionospheric critical frequencies and found some solar signatures.

  18. Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

    2012-01-01

    On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427

  19. Influence of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavares, M.

    2011-12-01

    This research inspects possible influence of solar cycles on earthquakes through of statistical analyses. We also discussed the mechanism that would drive the occurrence of increasing of earthquakes during solar maxima. The study was based on worldwide earthquakes events during approximately four hundred years (1600-2010). The increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also depends on the tectonic plate location. From 1600 until 1645 events increased during the Maxima in some of the tectonic plates as Pacific, Arabian and South America. The earthquakes analyzed during two grand solar minima, the Maunder (1645-1720) and the Dalton (1790-1820) showed a decrease in the number of earthquakes and the solar activity. It was observed during these minima a significant number of events at specific geological features. After the last minima (Dalton) the earthquakes pattern increased with solar maxima. The calculations showed that events increasing during solar maxima most in the Pacific, South America or Arabian until 1900. Since there were few records during these three centuries we needed additional analysis on modern data. We took the last four solar cycles events (1950-2010) and made similar calculations. The results agreed with the former calculations. It might be that the mechanism for the Sun-Earth connection relies on the solar wind speed. In both records (1600-1900) and (1950-2010) the results showed a significant increase in earthquakes events in some of the tectonic plates linked to solar maxima. The Solar wind energy striking the Earth's magnetosphere affects the entire environment because the pressure on the region increases and the magnetosphere shrinks sometimes four Earth's radii. This sudden compression causes earthquakes in specific plates. During the times of solar minima the pressure from the solar wind on the earth decreases, then the magnetosphere expands and earthquakes happen in a different pattern according to the

  20. If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell. William Dean

    2008-01-01

    Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

  1. Distinguishing Solar Cycle Effects in Planetary Atmospheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aplin, K. L.; Harrison, R. G.

    2008-12-01

    As solar radiation decreases with distance from the Sun, other sources of energy, such as ionization from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), assume a greater relative importance than at the terrestrial planets. Charged particle effects could therefore be more relevant to the formation of clouds and haze at the outer planets. The long-term solar modulation of Neptune's albedo is thought to be caused by either ion-induced nucleation of cloud-forming particles, or ultraviolet (UV) radiation effects on the colour of the clouds. On the basis of the 11 year solar cycle, the statistical evidence was slightly in favour of the UV mechanism, however distinguishing unambiguously between the two mechanisms will require more than the solar cycle variation alone. A 1.68 year quasi-periodicity, uniquely present at some times from heliospheric modulation of GCR, has previously been used to discriminate between solar UV and GCR effects in terrestrial data. The cosmic ray proton monitor data from both the Voyager spacecraft show this 1.68 year modulation during the 1980s when the spacecraft were close to the outer planets, indicating the possibility for applying a similar technique as far out as Neptune.

  2. Solar Cycle Dependence of Coronal Hole Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.

    2005-07-01

    The SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) has been used to measure the properties of hundreds of large coronal holes, that produced a variety of high-speed solar wind streams, during the past nine years. In the cases where UVCS and in situ measurements were made of the same coronal-hole plasma, high speeds in excess of 600 km/s were found in interplanetary space. UVCS has been used to observe O VI (103.2 and 103.7 nm) and H I Lyman alpha (121.6 nm) emission lines as a function of heliocentric distance. The analysis of their spectroscopic parameters allows us to identify similarities and differences among coronal holes at different phases of the solar cycle. From such measurements we can derive plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, velocity distribution anisotropies, and outflow speeds) for O5+ and protons as a function of heliocentric distance in the coronal holes. These properties, combined with other observed quantities such as white-light polarization brightness and the magnetic fluxes measured on-disk, let us analyze the coronal hole plasma properties more fully than ever before. We will present the solar cycle dependence of the above plasma parameters from the last solar minimum in 1996 to present and compare them, where possible, with the in situ solar wind properties. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NNG04GE84G to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency, and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  3. On the unusual solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shnirman, M.; Le Mouel, J.; Blanter, E.; Courtillot, V.

    2011-12-01

    We have analyzed the properties of the 27-day recurrence of solar activity, as represented by the Wolf number WN and the 10.7 cm radio flux F10.7. We study both a "shorter" period domain of the recurrence (from 25.0 to 27.3 days) and a "longer" one (from 27.3 to 31 days). In the "longer" period domain, the last solar cycle (23) is characterized by extremely low energy, at a level which is unprecedented since 1915. In the "shorter" period domain, the irregular behavior of cycle 23 manifests itself in the very low intensity, double peaked form of the energy of the absolute derivative of both WN and F10.7. Such features have not been observed since cycle 12, 140 years ago. We discuss how these unusual features of cycle 23 may affect attempts to reconstruct backwards UV/EUV emissions and also our understanding of future solar evolution and its impact on geomagnetism and climate.

  4. Ozone depletion during solar proton events in solar cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcpeters, R. D.; Jackman, C. H.

    1985-01-01

    Ozone profile data from the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet Instrument on Nimbus 7 from 1979 to the present and clear cases of ozone destruction associated with five sudden proton events (SPEs) on June 7, 1979, August 21, 1979, October 13-14, 1981, July 13, 1982, and December 8, 1982 are found. During the SPE on July 13, 1982, the largest of this solar cycle, no depletion at all at 45 km is observed, but there is a 15 percent ozone depletion at 50 km increasing to 27 percent at 55 km, all at a solar zenith angle of 85 deg. A strong variation of the observed depletion with solar zenith angle is found, with maximum depletion occurring at the largest zenith angles (near 85 deg) decreasing to near zero for angles below about 70 deg. The observed depletion is short lived, disappearing within hours of the end of the SPE.

  5. Solar Cycle Variations of Coronal Hole Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.; Cranmer, S. R.; Kohl, J. L.

    2005-05-01

    As of early 2005, we have measured with the SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) the physical properties of at least 136 large coronal holes that produced a variety of high-speed solar wind conditions at 1 AU. UVCS has been used to observe O VI (103.2 and 103.7 nm) and H I Lyman alpha (121.6 nm) emission lines as a function of heliocentric distance in coronal holes since 1996. The analysis of their spectroscopic parameters allows us to identify similarities and differences among coronal holes at different phases of the solar cycle. From such measurements we can derive plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, velocity distribution anisotropies, and outflow speeds) for O5+ and protons as a function of heliocentric distance in the coronal holes. These properties, combined with other observed quantities such as white-light polarization brightness and the more-or-less unipolar magnetic fluxes measured on-disk, let us map out the "allowed parameter space" of coronal hole plasma properties more fully than ever before. We will present the solar cycle dependence of the above plasma parameters from the last solar minimum in 1996 to present and compare them, where possible, with the in situ solar wind properties. We will also present an update on the pattern that is beginning to emerge, i.e., coronal holes with lower densities at a given heliocentric distance tend to exhibit faster ion outflow and higher ion temperatures. This information will thus be used to set firm empirical constraints on coronal heating and solar wind acceleration in coronal holes. In 2005, the polar coronal holes have not yet evolved to the fully quiescent minimum state seen in 1996-1997, though the next solar minimum is expected to occur in about 1.5 to 2 years. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NNG04GE84G to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency, and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  6. Solar cycle variations of magnetopause locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Němeček, Z.; Šafránková, J.; Lopez, R. E.; Dušík, Š.; Nouzák, L.; Přech, L.; Šimůnek, J.; Shue, J.-H.

    2016-07-01

    The magnetopause location is generally believed to be determined by the solar wind dynamic pressure and by the sign and value of the interplanetary magnetic field vertical (BZ) component. The contribution of other parameters is usually considered to be minor or negligible near the equatorial plane. Recent papers have shown a magnetopause expansion during intervals of a nearly radial IMF but our ability to predict the magnetopause location under steady or slowly changing upstream conditions remains rather weak even if the effect of radial magnetic field is considered. We present a statistical study based on more than 10,000 magnetopause crossings identified in the THEMIS data in the course of the last half of the solar cycle. The observed magnetopause locations are compared with an empirical magnetopause model of Shue et al. (1997) and the sources of differences between observations and model predictions are analyzed. This analysis reveals that the magnetopause location depends on the solar activity being more compressed during the solar maximum. Furthermore, we have found that, beside the solar wind dynamic pressure and vertical magnetic field component, the solar wind speed and ionospheric conductivity (F10.7 used as a proxy) are important physical quantities controlling this compression.

  7. Solar cycle evolution of the solar wind in three dimensions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rickett, B. J.; Coles, W. A.

    1983-01-01

    Measurements of the solar wind speed both in and out of the ecliptic are presented for 1971-82. The speed estimates, which were made with the interplanetary scintillation system at UC San Diego, have been compared to in situ for large, slowly evolving structures, and thus such structures can be studied up to 60 degrees north and south heliographic latitude. Annual average wind speeds are presented versus latitude for an entire solar cycle. Fast wind streams from the poles persisted through declining and low solar activity, but were closed off during four years of high activity. This evolution follows that of the polar coronal holes, as displayed by comparing averaged speed and coronal density over latitude and longitude. The most recent data (1982) show the reestablishment of large tilted polar holes and associated fast streams. Coronal magnetic field data show that the neutral sheet is confined to low latitudes at solar minimum and extends to high latitudes at solar maximum; thus the slow solar wind comes from the same latitude range as that of the neutral sheet.

  8. Flux-tube geometry and solar wind speed during an activity cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinto, R. F.; Brun, A. S.; Rouillard, A. P.

    2016-07-01

    Context. The solar wind speed at 1 AU shows cyclic variations in latitude and in time which reflect the evolution of the global background magnetic field during the activity cycle. It is commonly accepted that the terminal (asymptotic) wind speed in a given magnetic flux-tube is generally anti-correlated with its total expansion ratio, which motivated the definition of widely used semi-empirical scaling laws relating one to the other. In practice, such scaling laws require ad hoc corrections (especially for the slow wind in the vicinities of streamer/coronal hole boundaries) and empirical fits to in situ spacecraft data. A predictive law based solely on physical principles is still missing. Aims: We test whether the flux-tube expansion is the controlling factor of the wind speed at all phases of the cycle and at all latitudes (close to and far from streamer boundaries) using a very large sample of wind-carrying open magnetic flux-tubes. We furthermore search for additional physical parameters based on the geometry of the coronal magnetic field which have an influence on the terminal wind flow speed. Methods: We use numerical magneto-hydrodynamical simulations of the corona and wind coupled to a dynamo model to determine the properties of the coronal magnetic field and of the wind velocity (as a function of time and latitude) during a whole 11-yr activity cycle. These simulations provide a large statistical ensemble of open flux-tubes which we analyse conjointly in order to identify relations of dependence between the wind speed and geometrical parameters of the flux-tubes which are valid globally (for all latitudes and moments of the cycle). Results: Our study confirms that the terminal (asymptotic) speed of the solar wind depends very strongly on the geometry of the open magnetic flux-tubes through which it flows. The total flux-tube expansion is more clearly anti-correlated with the wind speed for fast rather than for slow wind flows, and effectively controls the

  9. Solar total irradiance in cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Schmutz, W.

    2011-05-01

    Context. The most recent minimum of solar activity was deeper and longer than the previous two minima as indicated by different proxies of solar activity. This is also true for the total solar irradiance (TSI) according to the PMOD composite. Aims: The apparently unusual behaviour of the TSI has been interpreted as evidence against solar surface magnetism as the main driver of the secular change in the TSI. We test claims that the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field does not reproduce the observed TSI in cycle 23. Methods: We use sensitive, 60-min averaged MDI magnetograms and quasi-simultaneous continuum images as an input to our SATIRE-S model and calculate the TSI variation over cycle 23, sampled roughly every two weeks. The computed TSI is then compared with the PMOD composite of TSI measurements and with the data from two individual instruments, SORCE/TIM and UARS/ACRIM II, that monitored the TSI during the declining phase of cycle 23 and over the previous minimum in 1996, respectively. Results: Excellent agreement is found between the trends shown by the model and almost all sets of measurements. The only exception is the early, i.e. 1996 to 1998, PMOD data. Whereas the agreement between the model and the PMOD composite over the period 1999-2009 is almost perfect, the modelled TSI shows a steeper increase between 1996 and 1999 than implied by the PMOD composite. On the other hand, the steeper trend in the model agrees remarkably well with the ACRIM II data. A closer look at the VIRGO data, which are the basis of the PMOD composite after 1996, reveals that only one of the two VIRGO instruments, the PMO6V, shows the shallower trend present in the composite, whereas the DIARAD measurements indicate a steeper trend. Conclusions: Based on these results, we conclude that (1) the sensitivity changes of the PMO6V radiometers within VIRGO during the first two years have very likely not been correctly evaluated; and that (2) the TSI variations over cycle 23

  10. On the seat of the solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gough, D.

    1981-01-01

    A discussion of some of the issues raised in connection with the seat of the solar cycle are presented. Is the cycle controlled by a strictly periodic oscillator that operates in the core, or is it a turbulent dynamo confined to the convection zone and possibly a thin boundary layer beneath it? Sunspot statistics are discussed, with a view to ascertaining the length of the memory of the cycle, without drawing a definitive conclusion. Also discussed are some of the processes that might bring about variations delta L and delta R in the luminosity and the radius of the photosphere. It appears that the ratio W = delta lnR/delta lnL increases with the depth of the disturbance that produces the variations, so that imminent observations might determine whether or not the principal dynamical processes are confined to only the outer layers of the Sun.

  11. Characteristics of Solar Meridional Flows during Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M.

    2010-07-01

    We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the "ring diagram" technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find that the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.

  12. CHARACTERISTICS OF SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOWS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23

    SciTech Connect

    Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M. E-mail: antia@tifr.res.i

    2010-07-01

    We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the 'ring diagram' technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find that the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.

  13. A solar cycle lengthwise series of solar diameter measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penna, J. L.; Andrei, A. H.; Boscardin, S. C.; Neto, E. Reis; d'Ávila, V. A.

    2010-02-01

    The measurements of the solar photospheric diameter rank among the most difficult astronomic observations. Reasons for this are the fuzzy definition of the limb, the SNR excess, and the adverse daytime seeing condition. As a consequence there are very few lengthy and consistent time series of such measurements. Using modern techniques, just the series from the IAG/USP and from Calern/OCA span more than one solar cycle. The Rio de Janeiro Group observations started in 1997, and therefore in 2008 one complete solar cycle time span can be analyzed. The series shares common principles of observation and analysis with the ones afore mentioned, and it is complementary on time to them. The distinctive features are the larger number of individual points and the improved precision. The series contains about 25,000 single observations, evenly distributed on a day-by-day basis. The typical error of a single observation is half an arc-second, enabling us to investigate variations at the expected level of tens of arc-second on a weekly basis. These features prompted to develop a new methodology for the investigation of the heliophysical scenarios leading to the observed variations, both on time and on heliolatitude. The algorithms rely on running averages and time shifts to derive the correlation and statistical incertitude for the comparison of the long term and major episodes variations of the solar diameter against activity markers. The results bring support to the correlation between the diameter variation and the solar activity, but evidentiating two different regimens for the long term trend and the major solar events.

  14. Solar cycle variations of thermospheric composition at the solstices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Wang, Wenbin; Zhang, Yongliang

    2016-04-01

    We examine the solar cycle variability of thermospheric composition (O/N2) at the solstices. Our observational and modeling studies show that the summer-to-winter latitudinal gradient of O/N2 is small at solar minimum but large at solar maximum; O/N2 is larger at solar maximum than at solar minimum on a global-mean basis; there is a seasonal asymmetry in the solar cycle variability of O/N2, with large solar cycle variations in the winter hemisphere and small solar cycle variations in the summer hemisphere. Model analysis reveals that vertical winds decrease the temperature-driven solar cycle variability in the vertical gradient of O/N2 in the summer hemisphere but increase it in the winter hemisphere; consequently, the vertical gradient of O/N2 does not change much in the summer hemisphere over a solar cycle, but it increases greatly from solar minimum to solar maximum in the winter hemisphere; this seasonal asymmetry in the solar cycle variability in the vertical gradient of O/N2 causes a seasonal asymmetry in the vertical advection of O/N2, with small solar cycle variability in the summer hemisphere and large variability in the winter hemisphere, which in turn drives the observed seasonal asymmetry in the solar cycle variability of O/N2. Since the equatorial ionization anomaly suppresses upwelling in the summer hemisphere and strengthens downwelling in the winter hemisphere through plasma-neutral collisional heating and ion drag, locations and relative magnitudes of the equatorial ionization anomaly crests and their solar cycle variabilities can significantly impact the summer-to-winter gradients of O/N2 and their solar cycle variability.

  15. Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

    PubMed Central

    Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

    2012-01-01

    The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

  16. Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24.

    PubMed

    Luhmann, Janet G; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

    2013-05-01

    The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is 'typical' solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

  17. Brayton cycle solarized advanced gas turbine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    Described is the development of a Brayton Engine/Generator Set for solar thermal to electrical power conversion, authorized under DOE/NASA Contract DEN3-181. The objective was to design, fabricate, assemble, and test a small, hybrid, 20-kW Brayton-engine-powered generator set. The latter, called a power conversion assembly (PCA), is designed to operate with solar energy obtained from a parobolic dish concentrator, 11 meters in diameter, or with fossil energy supplied by burning fuels in a combustor, or by a combination of both (hybrid model). The CPA consists of the Brayton cycle engine, a solar collector, a belt-driven 20-kW generator, and the necessary control systems for automatic operation in solar-only, fuel-only, and hybrid modes to supply electrical power to a utility grid. The original configuration of the generator set used the GTEC Model GTP36-51 gas turbine engine for the PCA prime mover. However, subsequent development of the GTEC Model AGT101 led to its selection as the powersource for the PCA. Performance characteristics of the latter, thermally coupled to a solar collector for operation in the solar mode, are presented. The PCA was successfully demonstrated in the fuel-only mode at the GTEC Phoenix, Arizona, facilities prior to its shipment to Sandia National Laboratory in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for installation and testing on a test bed concentractor (parabolic dish). Considerations relative to Brayton-engine development using the all-ceramic AGT101 when it becomes available, which would satisfy the DOE heat engine efficiency goal of 35 to 41 percent, are also discussed in the report.

  18. An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2004-01-01

    Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

  19. Solar cycle variations of coronal structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucif, M. L.; Koutchmy, S.

    1989-01-01

    Using eclipse pictures of the solar corona, properly scaled drawings have been prepared to constitute a short atlas of coronal structures. These drawings have been used to extract 2 parameters which are further considered with respect to the sunspot number and the sunspot cycle: the extension of polar regions free of coronal streamers and the average radial deviation of large streamers. The flattening index deduced from the photometric analysis of a larger number of eclipse pictures is also considered. The out-of-phase behavior of several coronal parameters is confirmed. The results are discussed in the light of the analysis of the green-line activity as observed during 30 years at the Pic du Midi Observatory. The N-S asymmetric behavior of the activity in different solar hemispheres and the occurrence of a powerful secondary maximum of coronal activity are discussed.

  20. Solar Cycle Changes of Coronal Streamer Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strachan, L.; Baham, M.; Miralles, M.; Panasyuk, A.

    2003-12-01

    We have measured UV spectroscopic parameters, as a function of height for more than 30 coronal streamers in order to identify similarities between streamers at different phases of the solar cycle. For the period from 1996-2002, we provide line intensities, line widths, and line ratios for the O VI 1032/1037 doublet and intensities and line widths for the H I Ly-alpha line for these streamers. From such measurements we can derive plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, and outflow velocities) for O5+ and protons as a function of heliocentric height (1.5 > r/Ro > 5) in the streamers. This information is useful for setting empirical constraints on coronal heating and solar wind acceleration in streamers. This work is supported by NASA Grant NAG5-12781 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory and NASA subcontract OGSP21010200061SAO awarded to SAO through a grant to Southern Universty at Baton Rouge.

  1. Solar neutrinos, solar flares, solar activity cycle and the proton decay

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raychaudhuri, P.

    1985-01-01

    It is shown that there may be a correlation between the galactic cosmic rays and the solar neutrino data, but it appears that the neutrino flux which may be generated during the large solar cosmic ray events cannot in any way effect the solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. Only initial stage of mixing between the solar core and solar outer layers after the sunspot maximum in the solar activity cycle can explain the higher (run number 27 and 71) of solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. But solar flare induced atmospheric neutrino flux may have effect in the nucleon decay detector on the underground. The neutrino flux from solar cosmic rays may be a useful guide to understand the background of nucleon decay, magnetic monopole search, and the detection of neutrino flux in sea water experiment.

  2. Objective CME detection over the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robbrecht, E.; Berghmans, D.

    We have developed a software package for 'Computer Aided CME Tracking' (CACTus), that autonomously detects CMEs in image sequences from LASCO. The crux of the CACTus software is the detection of CMEs as bright ridges in [height, time] maps using the Hough transform. The output is a list of events, similar to the classic catalogs, with principle angle, angular width and velocity estimation for each CME. In contrast to catalogs assembled by human operators, these CME detections by software can be faster and possibly also more objective, as the detection criterion is written explicitly in a program. Especially on the timescale of a solar cycle, it is questionnable whether human, visual CME detection is stable, as the operator gains experience or personnel is replaced. In this paper we overview the latest improvements of CACTUS and validate its performance by comparing the CACTus output with the classical, visually assembled CME catalogs. Discrepancies between the classical catalogs and the CACTUS catalogs are discussed. Such discrepancies highlight not only the performance of CACTUS but also the caveats of the classical catalogs. Indeed, CACTUS sometimes finds CMEs that are not listed in the catalogs or interpreted differently (eg halo CME or not). It is important to know these caveats when using the CME catalogs as input for statistical CME studies over the solar cycle. The near realtime output of the software is available on the web(http://sidc.oma.be/cactus) and is updated daily.

  3. The Progress of Solar Cycle 24 at High Latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altrock, R. C.

    2010-06-01

    The "extended" solar cycle 24 began in 1999 near 70° latitude, similarly to cycle 23 in 1989 and cycle 22 in 1979. The extended cycle is manifested by persistent Fe XIV coronal emission appearing near 70° latitude and slowly migrating towards the equator, merging with the latitudes of sunspots and active regions (the "butterfly diagram") after several years. Cycle 24 began its migration at a rate 40% slower than the previous two solar cycles, thus indicating the possibility of a peculiar cycle. However, the onset of the "Rush to the Poles" of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission, which has been a precursor to solar maximum in recent cycles (cf. Altrock 2003), has just been identified in the northern hemisphere. Peculiarly, this "rush" is leisurely, at only 50% of the rate in the previous two cycles. The properties of the current "Rush to the Poles" yields an estimate of 2013 or 2014 for solar maximum.

  4. Deep space telecommunications and the solar cycle: A reappraisal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berman, A. L.

    1978-01-01

    Observations of density enhancement in the near corona at solar cycle (sunspot) maximum have rather uncritically been interpreted to apply equally well to the extended corona, thus generating concern about the quality of outer planet navigational data at solar cycle maximum. Spacecraft have been deployed almost continuously during the recently completed solar cycle 20, providing two powerful new coronal investigatory data sources: (1) in-situ spacecraft plasma measurements at approximately 1 AU, and (2) plasma effects on monochromatic spacecraft signals at all signal closest approach points. A comprehensive review of these (solar cycle 20) data lead to the somewhat surprising conclusions that for the region of interest of navigational data, the highest levels of charged particle corruption of navigational data can be expected to occur at solar cycle minimum, rather than solar cycle maximum, as previously believed.

  5. One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Expected?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilcik, A.; Ozguc, A.

    2014-04-01

    We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot-group data collected since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, and H classes according to the Zurich classification], the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated how many small and large sunspot groups occurred, their sunspot numbers [SSN], and the Zurich numbers [ Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used the ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to occur later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is expected for Solar Cycle 24.

  6. Influenza pandemics, solar activity cycles, and vitamin D.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Daniel P

    2010-05-01

    There is historic evidence that influenza pandemics are associated with solar activity cycles (the Schwabe-cycle of about 11-years periodicity). The hypothesis is presented and developed that influenza pandemics are associated with solar control of vitamin D levels in humans which waxes and wanes in concert with solar cycle dependent ultraviolet radiation. It is proposed that this solar cycle dependence arises both directly from cyclic control of the amount of ultraviolet radiation as well as indirectly through cyclic control of atmospheric circulation and dynamics. PMID:20056531

  7. Variations of the solar wind and solar cycle in the last 300 years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feynman, J.; Silverman, S.

    1980-01-01

    The past history of the solar wind and solar cycle, inferred from records of geomagnetics and aurora, is examined. Records show that the solar wind apparently varied in a systematic manner throughout the period from 1770 to 1857 and that the period around 1810 resembled the 1901 minimum geomagnetic disturbance. Results show that the solar wind and hence the Sun changes on a time scale long compared to a solar cycle and short compared to the Maunder minimum. The inclusion of a study on the solar wind and solar cycle variations for the SCADM mission is discussed.

  8. Heliospheric Observations in the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jian, L. K.; Luhmann, J. G.; Russell, C. T.; Szabo, A.

    2012-12-01

    In solar cycle 24 (the beginning of year 2009 - present), the solar polar field started with a magnitude as weak as a half of initial field strength for previous solar cycles 21-23. As the cycle 24 rises, the solar polar field has been approaching its reversal very gradually, especially after January 2011. The approach speed is less than a half of previous cycles. The pace needs to increase for the Sun to reach the cycle maximum (field reversal) in 2013 as predicted. Consistent with the small sunspot number and weak solar field, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind dynamic pressure at 1 AU are weaker than previous cycles, resulting in less geomagnetic activity. In addition, based on our long-term study of large-scale solar wind structures, including interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), stream interaction regions (SIRs), and their associated shocks at 1 AU from 1995 to present, we have compared their properties in this rising phase with those of Cycle 23 and study their possible influence on geomagnetic activity. From 2009 to 2011, the ICME occurrence rate increases from 10 to 30 per year, not much less than the rising phase of cycle 23. However, these ICMEs are usually weaker and slower than last rising phase. The occurrence rate of SIRs decreases slightly from 2009 to 2011, similar to the rising phase of last cycle. As the sunspots show a north-south asymmetry, we will investigate the heliospheric response of this. By dividing the solar wind into positive (anti-sunward) and negative (sunward) sectors depending on the IMF polarity, we have compared the solar wind parameters of the two polarity sectors from the beginning of Solar Cycle 21 to present. The sector asymmetry is pronounced during the solar minimum 23/24. We will study how this asymmetry changes in the rising phase of cycle 24.

  9. Variability of Clouds Over a Solar Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yung, Yuk L.

    2002-01-01

    One of the most controversial aspects of climate studies is the debate over the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Historical data strongly suggest that the Little Ice Age (from 1550 to 1850 AD when the mean temperature was colder by about 1 C) was most likely caused by variability of the sun and not greenhouse molecules (e.g., CO2). However, the known variability in solar irradiance and modulation of cosmic rays provides too little energy, by many orders of magnitude, to lead to climate changes in the troposphere. The conjecture is that there is a 'trigger mechanism'. This idea may now be subjected to a quantitative test using recent global datasets. Using the best available modern cloud data from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Svensmark and Friis-Christensen found a correlation of a large variation (3-4%) in global cloud cover with the solar cycle. The work has been extended by Svensmark and Marsh and Svensmark. The implied forcing on climate is an order of magnitude greater than any previous claims. Are clouds the long sought trigger mechanism? This discovery is potentially so important that it should be corroborated by an independent database, and, furthermore, it must be shown that alternative explanations (i.e., El Nino) can be ruled out. We used the ISCCP data in conjunction with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data to carry out in in depth study of the cloud trigger mechanism.

  10. Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements

  11. INTERNAL-CYCLE VARIATION OF SOLAR DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION

    SciTech Connect

    Li, K. J.; Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.

    2013-06-01

    The latitudinal distributions of the yearly mean rotation rates measured by Suzuki in 1998 and 2012 and Pulkkinen and Tuominen in 1998 are utilized to investigate internal-cycle variation of solar differential rotation. The rotation rate at the solar equator seems to have decreased since cycle 10 onward. The coefficient B of solar differential rotation, which represents the latitudinal gradient of rotation, is found to be smaller in the several years after the minimum of a solar cycle than in the several years after the maximum time of the cycle, and it peaks several years after the maximum time of the solar cycle. The internal-cycle variation of the solar rotation rates looks similar in profile to that of the coefficient B. A new explanation is proposed to address such a solar-cycle-related variation of the solar rotation rates. Weak magnetic fields may more effectively reflect differentiation at low latitudes with high rotation rates than at high latitudes with low rotation rates, and strong magnetic fields may more effectively repress differentiation at relatively low latitudes than at high latitudes. The internal-cycle variation is inferred as the result of both the latitudinal migration of the surface torsional pattern and the repression of strong magnetic activity in differentiation.

  12. Internal-cycle Variation of Solar Differential Rotation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, K. J.; Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.

    2013-06-01

    The latitudinal distributions of the yearly mean rotation rates measured by Suzuki in 1998 and 2012 and Pulkkinen & Tuominen in 1998 are utilized to investigate internal-cycle variation of solar differential rotation. The rotation rate at the solar equator seems to have decreased since cycle 10 onward. The coefficient B of solar differential rotation, which represents the latitudinal gradient of rotation, is found to be smaller in the several years after the minimum of a solar cycle than in the several years after the maximum time of the cycle, and it peaks several years after the maximum time of the solar cycle. The internal-cycle variation of the solar rotation rates looks similar in profile to that of the coefficient B. A new explanation is proposed to address such a solar-cycle-related variation of the solar rotation rates. Weak magnetic fields may more effectively reflect differentiation at low latitudes with high rotation rates than at high latitudes with low rotation rates, and strong magnetic fields may more effectively repress differentiation at relatively low latitudes than at high latitudes. The internal-cycle variation is inferred as the result of both the latitudinal migration of the surface torsional pattern and the repression of strong magnetic activity in differentiation.

  13. A prediction of geomagnetic activity for solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Wise, J. E.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

    1999-04-01

    Using a database of 13 solar cycles of geomagnetic aa data, we obtained correlations between cycle averages of geomagnetic activity (and sunspot number) and the numbers of days with disturbance levels above certain aa thresholds. We then used a precursor-type relation to predict an average aa index of 23.1 nT for cycle 23 and inserted this average aa value into the above correlations to forecast the integral size distribution of geomagnetic activity for the new cycle. The predicted size distribution is similar to that observed for cycles 21 and 22 but most closely resembles that of solar cycle 18 (1944-1954), which was slightly smaller than cycles 21 and 22. Our prediction agrees reasonably well with the ``climatology-based'' forecast made by the intergovernmental panel tasked to predict geomagnetic activity for the coming solar cycle and is significantly different from their ``precursor-based'' prediction.

  14. The solar cycle - A central-source wave theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bracewell, R. N.

    1989-01-01

    Studies stimulated by the interpretation of the Elatina formation in South Australia as a fossil record of solar activity have led to discoveries of previously unnoticed features of the sunspot cycle record and to a theory of origin of the sunspot cycle that postulates a solar core in torsional motion and a magnetomechanical wave that couples to the photosphere. The considerations supporting the solar interpretation of the Elatina formation are gathered together.

  15. Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2014-01-01

    We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of

  16. The Solar Non-activity Cycle of Polar Coronal Holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirk, M. S.; Pesnell, W. D.; Young, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    After the unusually extended minimum in 2008 and 2009, solar cycle 24 continues to be an exceptionally weak cycle both in sunspot number and number of large magnetic storms. Coronal holes offer a direct measurement of the non-activity solar cycle, a missing link in our understanding of solar cycle progression. They are prevalent during solar minimum, non-axisymmetric, and are stable. Polar coronal holes are regularly observed capping the northern and southern solar poles in EUV images of the corona and are understood as the primary source of the fast solar wind. We make measurements of these features from 1996 through 2015 using four different NASA imagers: SOHO EIT, STEREO A and B EUVI, and SDO AIA. A measurement of the axial symmetry of the polar holes is seen to have clear solar cycle dependence. Polar coronal holes are aligned with the solar rotation axis during minimum and have a maximum asymmetry between holes of about 14 degrees in the declining phase of the current solar cycle.

  17. Some problems in coupling solar activity to meteorological phenomena

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dessler, A. J.

    1975-01-01

    The development of a theory of coupling of solar activity to meteorological phenomena is hindered by the difficulties of devising a mechanism that can modify the behavior of the troposphere while employing only a negligible amount of energy compared with the energy necessary to drive the normal meteorological system, and determining how such a mechanism can effectively couple some relevant magnetospheric process into the troposphere in such a way as to influence the weather. A clue to the nature of the interaction between the weather and solar activity might be provided by the fact that most solar activity undergoes a definite 11-yr cycle, and meteorological phenomena undergo either no closely correlated variation, an 11-yr variation, or a 22-yr variation.

  18. Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

    DOEpatents

    Bharathan, D.; Bohn, M.S.; Williams, T.A.

    1995-05-23

    A hybrid combined cycle power plant is described including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production. 1 figure.

  19. Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

    DOEpatents

    Bharathan, Desikan; Bohn, Mark S.; Williams, Thomas A.

    1995-01-01

    A hybrid combined cycle power plant including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production.

  20. Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2009-01-01

    Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

  1. Solar Ultraviolet Irradiance Variability During the Decline of Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snow, M. A.; McClintock, W. E.; Woods, T. N.; Harder, J. W.; Richard, E. C.

    2010-12-01

    Observations from the SOLar-STellar Irradiance Comparision Experiment (SOLSTICE) on the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) began in 2003 and continue through the present. This time period includes the decline of solar cycle 23 through solar minimum. SOLSTICE measures solar irradiance from 115 nm to 300 nm with a spectral resolution of 0.1 nm. The variability seen by SORCE SOLSTICE is greater than the variability recorded by the instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite(UARS). This poster will describe the magnitude and uncertainty of solar irradiance variability in the ultraviolet part of the spectrum during the SORCE mission with comparisons to irradiance models based on UARS measurements.

  2. Modeling studies of ionospheric variations during an intense solar cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Balan, N.; Bailey, G.J.; Moffett, R.J.

    1994-09-01

    The authors study the ionization behavior of the ionosphere in response to the intense solar cycle 21, by looking at relationships between neutral winds, neutral densities, and solar EUV fluxes to see how they contribute to the observed saturation, or effective leveling of ionization rates at high solar activity levels. They find that the nonlinear behaviors of neutral wind and neutral density have no effect on this saturation behavior. They do find that the expected linear relationship between solar EUV and UV flux and solar activity index breaks down at intense activity levels, that the ionosphere responds linearly to the solar EUV and UV flux, and this is responsible for the apparent saturation.

  3. Major Space Weather Events during the Weak Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

    2012-01-01

    We report on the level of solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 as the cycles build toward the corresponding solar maxima. The prolonged minimum period that followed solar cycle 23 and the weaker magnetic field at the poles seem to have resulted in a weaker level of activity during cycle 24. The double speak structure often observed in the maximum phases seems to be present during cycle 24, with the first peak having a sunspot number of only N90. large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, major geomagnetic storms, and radio-emitting interplanetary shocks have been observed in relatively sma:ier numbers. While the number of large SEP events during the rise phase of cycles 24 is not too different from that of cycle 23, they are generally less intense. Five ground level enhancement (GlE) events occurred up to the first activity peak in cycle 23, while a lone GlE event has been observed during the corresponding phase in cycle 24. There were 35 large (Dst S -100 nT) geomagnetic storms during the first 4.5 years of cycle 23, while only 5 occurred during cycle 24. The subdued activity during cycle 23 is consistent with the low numbers of type II radio bursts, full halo CMEs, and interplanetary shocks.

  4. DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, Michael; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.

    2013-01-01

    It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992; Anderson and Koons, 1996; Anderson, 2012). These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka (1992). These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

  5. DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, M.; Parker, L. Neergaard; Minow, J. I.

    2013-01-01

    It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions. These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka. These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

  6. Composite Mg II solar activity index for solar cycles 21 and 22

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

    1993-01-01

    On the basis of version 1.0 of the composite MG II solar activity index data set, it is shown that the change in the 27-day running average of the Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is about 8 percent for solar cycle 21 and about 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets are developed for each instrument to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. A set of composite scale factors are derived for use with the present composite MG index. Near 205 cm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric chemistry, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is about 10 +/- 1 percent using the composite Mg II index (version 1.0) and scale factors.

  7. Forecasting the Peak of the Present Solar Activity Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamid, Rabab; Marzouk, Beshir

    2016-07-01

    Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aa min. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between RM and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives RM24t = 101.9with rise time Tr = 4.5 Y. For the even cycles RM24e = 108.3 with rise time Tr = 3.9 Y. Based on the average aa min. index for the year of sunspot minimum cycles (13 - 23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be RMaa = 116.5 for both the total and even cycles. Application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 146, which are over estimation. Our result indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

  8. Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

    2013-06-01

    The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

  9. A decrease in solar and geomagnetic activity from cycle 19 to cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gvishiani, A. D.; Starostenko, V. I.; Sumaruk, Yu. P.; Soloviev, A. A.; Legostaeva, O. V.

    2015-05-01

    Variations in the solar and geomagnetic activity from cycle 19 to cycle 24 were considered based on data from the magnetic observatories of the Russian-Ukrainian INTERMAGNET segment and international centers of data on solar-terrestrial physics. It has been indicated that activity decreases over the course of time. This is especially evident during the cycle 24 growth phase. The possible causes and consequences of a decrease in geomagnetic activity were analyzed.

  10. White-light corona and solar polar magnetic field strength over solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rušin, V.; Saniga, M.; Komžík, R.

    2014-10-01

    We discuss the large-scale structure of the solar corona, in particular its helmet streamers, as observed during total solar eclipses around maxima of solar cycles and make its comparison with solar polar magnetic field strength as observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) since 1976. Even though the magnetic field strength at the solar poles around cycle minima decreased minimally twice in the last forty years, distributions of helmet streamers around the Sun in different cycles around cycle maxima remain nearly the same. This indicates that large-scale magnetic structures governing the shape and evolution of helmet streamers must be of a different nature than those related with solar polar fields.

  11. Weak ionization of the global ionosphere in solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Y. Q.; Shi, H.; Xiao, Z.; Zhang, D. H.

    2014-07-01

    Following prolonged and extremely quiet solar activity from 2008 to 2009, the 24th solar cycle started slowly. It has been almost 5 years since then. The measurement of ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) shows the fact that solar activity has been significantly lower in the first half of cycle 24, compared to the average levels of cycles 19 to 23; the data of global average total electron content (TEC) confirm that the global ionosphere around the cycle 24 peak is much more weakly ionized, in contrast to cycle 23. The weak ionization has been more notable since the year 2012, when both the ionosphere and solar activity were expected to be approaching their maximum level. The undersupply of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance somewhat continues after the 2008-2009 minimum, and is considered to be the main cause of the weak ionization. It further implies that the thermosphere and ionosphere in the first solar cycle of this millennium would probably differ from what we have learned from the previous cycles of the space age.

  12. Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

    2012-06-01

    The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

  13. ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES

    SciTech Connect

    De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.

    2013-06-20

    We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots between the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.

  14. Analysis of Sunspot Area over Two Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.; Cookson, A. M.

    2013-06-01

    We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots between the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.

  15. Solar Cycle Characteristics and Their Relationship with Dynamo Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otkidychev, P. A.; Popova, H.; Popov, V.

    2015-12-01

    We try to establish the correlation between different parameters of “butterfly-diagrams” derived from the analysis of solar observational data for the 12-23 solar activity cycles and the values in the models of α-Ω­dynamo using RGO - NASA/Marshall data set. We have ascertained that there is a linear relationship between S and BT/L for all the investigated cycles, where S is the mean area of the sunspots (umbrae), B is the mean magnetic field strength, T is duration of a cycle and L is the mean latitude of the sunspots in a cycle.

  16. Solar flux and its variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, E. V. P.; Gottlieb, D. M.

    1975-01-01

    Data are presented on the solar irradiance as derived from a number of sources. An attempt was made to bring these data onto a uniform scale. Summation of fluxes at all wavelengths yields a figure of 1357.826 for the solar constant. Estimates are made of the solar flux variations due to flares, active regions (slowly varying component), 27-day period, and the 11-yr cycle. Solar activity does not produce a significant variation in the value of the solar constant. Variations in the X-ray and EUV portions of the solar flux may be several orders of magnitude during solar activity, especially at times of major flares. It is established that these short wavelength flux enhancements cause significant changes in the terrestrial ionosphere.

  17. Solar Cycle 24: Where are you?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, Gary A.; Cookson, A.; Preminger, D.

    2009-05-01

    Photometric images have been obtained on a daily basis since 1986 at the San Fernando Observatory. We will compare sunspot and facular areas from cycle 22 with those of cycle 23. Both spot areas and facular areas were lower during the maximum of cycle 23 compared to cycle 22. The distribution in spot areas will be compared. The extended minimum in spot area following cycle 23 is delaying the beginning of cycle 24. This work has been partially supported by NSF grant ATM-0533511.

  18. Solar Cycle 23: Variation of the Solar Corona in the Ultraviolet from Solar Minimum to Solar Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.; Panasyuk, A. V.; Strachan, L.; Gardner, L. D.; Suleiman, R.; Cranmer, S. R.; Kohl, J. L.

    2001-06-01

    UVCS/SOHO measurements of H I Ly-alpha and O VI (103.2 nm and 103.7 nm) intensities in the solar corona have been made from solar Cycle 23's minimum in 1996 to its current maximum. At solar minimum, the corona consisted of large coronal holes at the poles and quiescent streamers at the equator. During the approach to solar maximum, equatorial coronal holes and high latitude streamers became more conspicuous. Recently, coronal holes at higher latitudes have reappeared, allowing a comparison to be made of O VI intensities and line widths of coronal holes at different latitudes. We also characterize the variation of coronal hole properties with height, and location over the solar cycle. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NAG5-10093 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution)

  19. Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meftah, Mustapha

    2015-08-01

    One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

  20. Iron-rich solar particle events measured by SOHO/ERNE during two solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raukunen, O.; Valtonen, E.; Vainio, R.

    2016-04-01

    Aims: We study the differences in the heavy ion composition of solar energetic particle (SEP) events between solar cycles 23 and 24. Methods: We have surveyed the SOHO/ERNE heavy ion data from the beginning of solar cycle 23 until the end of June 2015, that is, well into the declining phase of cycle 24. We used this long observation period to study the properties of heavy ions (from C to Fe) and to compare the two solar cycles in this respect. We surveyed the data for SEP events with enhancements in the Fe/C and Fe/O intensity ratios in the energy range 5-15 MeV per nucleon, and associated the events with solar flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) when possible. We studied the properties of heavy ions in these events and compared the average relative abundances of heavy ions between the two solar cycles. Results: We found that fewer days had C and O intensities higher than ~10 -3 cm-2 sr-1 s-1 (MeVn-1)-1 during solar cycle 24 than during cycle 23. For Fe this difference was clear even at lower intensities. We also found that fewer days had Fe/(C+O) > 0.183 during cycle 24. We identified 86 SEP events with at least one Fe-rich day, 65 of which occurred during cycle 23 and only 21 during cycle 24. We found that impulsive events have been almost completely absent during cycle 24. Mean abundances of heavy ions in the events were found to be significantly lower during cycle 24 than in cycle 23. Our results reflect the reduced solar activity in cycle 24 and indicate lower efficiency of particle acceleration processes for both gradual and impulsive SEP events in cycle 24.

  1. Solar Cycle Spectral Irradiance Variation and Stratospheric Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stolarski, R. S.; Swartz, W. H.; Jackman, C. H.; Fleming, E. L.

    2011-12-01

    Recent measurements from the SIM instrument on the SORCE satellite have been interpreted by Harder et al (Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07801, doi:10.1029/2008GL036797, 2009) as implying a different spectral irradiance variation over the solar cycle than that put forward by Lean (Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2425-2428, 2000). When we inserted this new wavelength dependent solar cycle variation into our 3D CCM we found a different solar cycle dependence of the ozone concentration as a function of altitude from that we derived using the traditional Lean wavelength dependence. Examination of these results led us to realize that the main issue is the solar cycle variation of radiation at wavelengths less than 240 nm versus the solar cycle variation of radiation at wavelengths between 240 nm and 300 nm. The impact of wavelengths less than 240 nm occurs through photodissociation of O2 leading to the production of ozone. The impact of wavelengths between 240 nm and 300 nm occurs through photodissociation of O3 leading to an increase in O atoms and enhanced ozone destruction. Thus one wavelength region gives an in-phase relationship of ozone with the solar cycle while the other wavelength region gives an out-of-phase relationship of ozone with the solar cycle. We have used the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) photochemistry transport model to examine this relationship in more detail. We calculate the altitude and latitude sensitivity of ozone to changes in the solar UV irradiance as a function of wavelength. These results can be used to construct the ozone response to arbitrary wavelength dependencies of solar UV variation.

  2. Forecast for solar cycle 23 activity: a progress report

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahluwalia, H. S.

    2001-08-01

    At the 25th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) at Durban, South Africa, I announced the discovery of a three cycle quasi-periodicity in the ion chamber data string assembled by me, for the 1937 to 1994 period (Conf. Pap., v. 2, p. 109, 1997). It corresponded in time with a similar quasi-periodicity observed in the dataset for the planetary index Ap. At the 26th ICRC at Salt Lake City, UT, I reported on our analysis of the Ap data to forecast the amplitude of solar cycle 23 activity (Conf. Pap., v. 2, pl. 260, 1999). I predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17), notwithstanding the early exuberant forecasts of some solar astronomers that cycle 23, "may be one of the greatest cycles in recent times, if not the greatest." Sunspot number data up to April 2001 indicate that our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We review the solar, interplanetary and geophysical data and describe the important lessons learned from this experience. 1. Introduction Ohl (1971) was the first to realize that Sun may be sending us a subliminal message as to its intent for its activity (Sunspot Numbers, SSN) in the next cycle. He posited that the message was embedded in the geomagnetic activity (given by sum Kp). Schatten at al (1978) suggested that Ohl hypothesis could be understood on the basis of the model proposed by Babcock (1961) who suggested that the high latitude solar poloidal fields, near a minimum, emerge as the toroidal fields on opposite sides of the solar equator. This is known as the Solar Dynamo Model. One can speculate that the precursor poloidal solar field is entrained in the high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) from the coronal holes which are observed at Earth's orbit during the descending phase of the previous cycle. The interaction

  3. Cosmic Ray Helium Intensities over the Solar Cycle from ACE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeNolfo, G. A.; Yanasak, N. E.; Binns, W. R.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; George, J. S.; Hink. P. L.; Israel, M. H.; Lave, K.; Leske, R. A.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Moskalenko, I. V.; Ogliore, R.; Stone, E. C.; Von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Wiedenback, M. E.

    2007-01-01

    Observations of cosmic-ray helium energy spectra provide important constraints on cosmic ray origin and propagation. However, helium intensities measured at Earth are affected by solar modulation, especially below several GeV/nucleon. Observations of helium intensities over a solar cycle are important for understanding how solar modulation affects galactic cosmic ray intensities and for separating the contributions of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays. The Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) on ACE has been measuring cosmic ray isotopes, including helium, since 1997 with high statistical precision. We present helium elemental intensities between approx. 10 to approx. 100 MeV/nucleon from the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) and CRIS observations over a solar cycle and compare these results with the observations from other satellite and balloon-borne instruments, and with GCR transport and solar modulation models.

  4. Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

    2009-04-01

    The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

  5. Forecasting decadal and shorter time-scale solar cycle features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2016-07-01

    Solar energetic particles and magnetic fields reach the Earth through the interplanetary medium and affect it in various ways, producing beautiful aurorae, but also electrical blackouts and damage to our technology-dependent economy. The root of energetic solar outputs is the solar activity cycle, which is most likely caused by dynamo processes inside the Sun. It is a formidable task to accurately predict the amplitude, onset and peak timings of a solar cycle. After reviewing all solar cycle prediction methods, including empirical as well as physical model-based schemes, I will describe what we have learned from both validation and nonvalidation of cycle 24 forecasts, and how to refine the model-based schemes for upcoming cycle 25 forecasts. Recent observations indicate that within a solar cycle there are shorter time-scale 'space weather' features, such as bursts of various forms of activity with approximately one year periodicity. I will demonstrate how global tachocline dynamics could play a crucial role in producing such space weather. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

  6. Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, Aleksandr

    Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone

  7. On solar oblateness measurements during the current solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meftah, M.; Hauchecorne, A.; Irbah, A.; Bush, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    The rotation of the Sun on itself involves a flatness of the Polar Regions. The solar oblateness results from the rotation of the whole solar interior and the distribution of its mass according to the depth. Thus, possible diagnostic of the internal rotation is provided by the solar oblateness. The solar oblateness also places constraints on general relativity. Indeed, the modern era of measurements of the solar oblateness began in the 1960s with Dicke's measurements, which were useful in understanding the perihelion precession of Mercury's orbit, one of the classical tests of general relativity. Thus, for various reasons, it is necessary to better know the solar oblateness value and to study its dependence with the solar activity. Based on measurements collected from various instruments over the past 50 years, the measured solar equator-to-pole radius difference converges towards 8 mas (near 5.8 km). Now, with space era, we felt it was possible to obtain very accurate measurements of the solar equator-to-pole radius difference and its evolution over time. Thus, we developed an original method to estimate the solar equator-to-pole radius difference from two solar space missions (Solar Dynamics Observatory and PICARD). When analysing the solar radius versus angle data, we observed an anti-correlation between the limb brightness and the radius determined from the inflection point. The apparent radius was smaller if an active region was near the limb. The bright active regions were confined to low latitudes and never occur at the poles. The exact cause of this anti-correlation needs still to be understood but it is clear that it may cause an artefact in the determination of the solar oblateness leading to a negative bias, even if the more active regions were eliminated from the analysis. In this talk, we describe the method, and then present current results about solar oblateness variations after five years of solar observations (from 2010 to 2015) and linkages

  8. Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael

    Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites.

  9. Influence of Short-Term Solar UV Variability on the Determination of Solar Cycle Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.

    1997-01-01

    Smoothing solar UV data on rotational timescale (approx. 27 days) improves identification of solar minimum. Smoothing intervals which are not multiples of rotational period (e.g. 35 days) can leave measurable residual signal. No evidence found for periodic behavior on intermediate (50-250 days) time scales during Cycle 22, based on data from three solar UV instruments.

  10. The dynamo basis of solar cycle precursor schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charbonneau, Paul; Barlet, Guillaume

    2011-02-01

    We investigate the dynamo underpinning of solar cycle precursor schemes based on direct or indirect measures of the solar surface magnetic field. We do so for various types of mean-field-like kinematic axisymmetric dynamo models, where amplitude fluctuations are driven by zero-mean stochastic forcing of the dynamo number controlling the strength of the poloidal source term. In all stochastically forced models considered, the surface poloidal magnetic field is found to have precursor value only if it feeds back into the dynamo loop, which suggests that accurate determination of the magnetic flux budget of the solar polar fields may hold the key to dynamo model-based cycle forecasting.

  11. A solar cycle timing predictor - The latitude of active regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1990-01-01

    A 'Spoerer butterfly' method is used to examine solar cycle 22. It is shown from the latitude of active regions that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 + or - 8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.

  12. Solar Cycle: Magnetized March to Equator

    NASA Video Gallery

    Bands of magnetized solar material – with alternating south and north polarity – march toward the sun's equator. Comparing the evolution of the bands with the sunspot number in each hemisphere over...

  13. Coronal Holes During the Past Solar Cycle [Invited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.

    2003-06-01

    Analyses of UVCS/SOHO observations during different phases of Solar Cycle 23 have shown marked variations of ion properties in the acceleration region of the high-speed solar wind in large coronal holes. In 1996--1997 at solar minimum, UVCS observations revealed fast, hot flows coming from polar coronal holes. Around solar maximum, UVCS observations showed slower, cooler flows coming from coronal holes at the Sun's equator. In 2001 and 2002, UVCS observations evidenced the reappearance of the coronal holes at the north and south poles for the next solar cycle. We present empirical models for the physical properties of large coronal holes and the acceleration of the associated high-speed solar wind derived from ultraviolet coronagraphic spectroscopy. We discuss the role of solar cycle trends and the variation of ambient coronal-hole properties (e.g., magnetic field, geometry, density). We use these observations to test phenomenological models of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NAG5-11420 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  14. Variation of solar acoustic emission and its relation to phase of the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ruizhu; Zhao, Junwei

    2016-05-01

    Solar acoustic emission is closely related to solar convection and photospheric magnetic field. Variation of acoustic emission and its relation to the phase of solar cycles are important to understand dynamics of solar cycles and excitation of acoustic waves. In this work we use 6 years of SDO/HMI Dopplergram data to study acoustic emissions of the whole sun and of the quiet-sun regions, respectively, in multiple acoustic frequency bands. We show the variation of acoustic emission from May 2010 to April 2016, covering half of the solar cycle 24, and analyze its correlation with the solar activity level indexed by daily sunspot number and total magnetic flux. Results show that the correlation between the whole-Sun acoustic emission and the solar activity level is strongly negative for low frequencies between 2.5 and 4.5 mHz, but strongly positive for high frequencies between 4.5 and 6.0 mHz. For high frequencies, the acoustic emission excess in sunspot halos overwhelms the emission deficiency in sunspot umbrae and penumbrae. The correlation between the acoustic emission in quiet regions and the solar activity level is negative for 2.5-4.0 mHz and positive for 4.0-5.5 mHz. This shows that the solar background acoustic power, with active regions excluded, also varies during a solar cycle, implying the excitation frequencies or depths are highly related to the solar magnetic field.

  15. Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eter, Ahmad Adel

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

  16. Solar cycle variations in the interplanetary magnetic field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slavin, J. A.; Smith, E. J.

    1983-01-01

    ISEE 3 interplanetary magnetic field measurements have been used to extend the NSSDC hourly averaged IMF composite data set through mid-1982. Most of sunspot cycle 20 (start:1964) and the first half of cycle 21 (start:1976) are now covered. The average magnitude of the field was relatively constant over cycle 20 with approx. 5-10% decreases in 1969 and 1971, when the Sun's polar regions changed polarity, and a 20% decrease in 1975-6 around solar minimum. Since the start of the new cycle, the total field strength has risen with the mean for the first third of 1982 being about 40% greater than the cycle 20 average. As during the previous cycle, an approx. 10% drop in IMF magnitude accompanied the 1980 reversal of the solar magnetic field. While the interplanetary magnetic field is clearly stronger during the present solar cycle, another 5-7 years of observations will be needed to determine if cycle 21 exhibits the same modest variations as the last cycle. Accordingly, it appears at this time that intercycle changes in IMF magnitude may be much larger than the intracycle variations.

  17. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

    SciTech Connect

    Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V. E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk

    2014-11-01

    A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

  18. What Causes the Inter-solar-cycle Variation of Total Solar Irradiance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, N. B.; Kong, D. F.

    2015-12-01

    The Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos total solar irradiance (TSI), Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring TSI, and Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium TSI are three typical TSI composites. Magnetic Plage Strength Index (MPSI) and Mount Wilson Sunspot Index (MWSI) should indicate the weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively. Cross-correlation (CC) analysis of MWSI with three TSI composites shows that TSI should be weakly correlated with MWSI, and not be in phase with MWSI at timescales of solar cycles. The wavelet coherence (WTC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) of TSI with MWSI indicate that the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI is also not related to solar strong magnetic field activity, which is represented by MWSI. However, CC analysis of MPSI with three TSI composites indicates that TSI should be moderately correlated and accurately in phase with MPSI at timescales of solar cycles, and that the statistical significance test indicates that the correlation coefficient of three TSI composites with MPSI is statistically significantly higher than that of three TSI composites with MWSI. Furthermore, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) and WTC of TSI with MPSI show that the TSI is highly related and actually in phase with MPSI at a timescale of a solar cycle as well. Consequently, the CC analysis, XWT, and WTC indicate that the solar weak magnetic activity on the full disk, which is represented by MPSI, dominates the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI.

  19. Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar

    1992-01-01

    The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested.

  20. Magnetic Cloud Polarity and Geomagnetic Activities over Three Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Luhmann, J.

    2006-12-01

    Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that show fluxrope magnetic structures are named magnetic clouds (MCs). Majority of the MCs exhibit bipolar signature in their north-south component (Bz) in IMF measurements. The Bz component of a bipolar cloud is either NS (north first then turning south as the MC traverses the spacecraft) or SN. Studies show that the occurrence of these two types of MCs has some solar cycle dependence. However it appears to be a complex relationship as the switch between the two types of MCs is not concurrent with either the solar polar reversal or the time of the sunspot minimum when the new cycle sunspots start to appear. In this paper, we use ACE solar wind and IMF observations to obtain the most updated MC signatures and their temporal variation. In combination with our previously published results, we analyze MC polarity variations over the three solar cycles of 21, 22 and 23. Interpretations in terms of their solar sources will be attempted. On the other hand, the geomagnetic activities over the same solar cycles will be studied using geomagnetic indices. The geoeffectiveness of the MC will be evaluated in the aid of Dst indices.

  1. Solar cycle variation of thermospheric nitric oxide at solstice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gerard, J.-C.; Fesen, C. G.; Rusch, D. W.

    1990-01-01

    A coupled, two-dimensional, chemical-diffusive model of the thermosphere is used to study the role of solar activity in the global distribution of nitric oxide. The model calculates self-consistently the zonally averaged temperature, circulation, and composition for solstice under solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. A decrease of the NO density by a factor of three to four in the E region is predicted from solar maximum to solar minimum. It is found that the main features of the overall morphology and the changes induced by the solar cycle are well reproduced in the model, although some details are not satisfactorily predicted. The sensitivity of the NO distribution to eddy transport and to the quenching of metastable N(2D) atoms by atomic oxygen is also described.

  2. Energetic particle recurrence and escape during solar cycle 20

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gold, R. E.; Roelof, E. C.

    1980-10-01

    Low-energy solar particle data have been combined from a multi-spacecraft near-earth data set covering most of solar cycle 20 (1966-1976). Particle intensity profiles have been ordered in the natural heliographic coordinate system of the estimated high coronal connection longitude of the foot point of the interplanetary field line. The recurrence trends of approximately 1-MeV solar particles become more apparent in this coordinate system than when plotted versus time, and thereby extend the evidence for regions of continual injection and escape from the corona. Intercomparison of solar particles and solar wind streams in heliographic longitude suggests that the origin of stream-associated spatial particle events seen at 1 AU is solar rather than interplanetary.

  3. Evolution of solar wind turbulence and intermittency over the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Väisänen, Pauli; Virtanen, Ilpo; Echim, Marius; Munteanu, Costel; Mursula, Kalevi

    2016-04-01

    Solar wind is a natural, near-by plasma physics laboratory, which offers possibilities to study plasma physical phenomena over a wide range of parameter values that are difficult to reach in ground-based laboratories. Accordingly, the solar wind is subject of many studies of, e.g., intermittency, turbulence and other nonlinear space plasma phenomena. Turbulence is an important feature of the solar wind dynamics, e.g., for the energy transfer mechanisms and their scale invariance, the solar wind evolution, the structure of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), the particle energization and heating, and for phenomena related to solar wind interaction with the planetary plasma systems. Here we analyse high resolution measurements of the solar wind and the heliospheric magnetic field provided by several ESA and NASA satellites, including ACE, STEREO, Ulysses and Cluster. This collection of satellites allows us to compile and study nearly 20 years of high-resolution solar wind and HMF measurements from the start of solar cycle 23 to the current declining phase of solar cycle 24. Long-term studies require homogeneity and, therefore, we pay great attention to the reliability and consistency of the data, in particular to instrumental defects like spin harmonics, the purity of the solar wind and its possible contamination in the foreshock by magnetospheric ions. We study how the different key-descriptors of turbulence like the slope of the power law of power spectral density and the kurtosis of the fluctuations of the heliospheric magnetic field vary over the solar cycle.

  4. Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

  5. A Solar Cycle Dependence of Nonlinearity in Magnetospheric Activity

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Jay R; Wing, Simon

    2005-03-08

    The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical K(sub)p data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original K(sub)p data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maximum. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to one week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VB(sub)s and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.

  6. Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

    1991-01-01

    Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

  7. New results concerning the global solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makarov, V. I.; Sivaraman, K. R.

    1989-09-01

    The poleward migration-trajectory diagram of filament bands is derived for the years 1915-1982 from the H-alpha synoptic charts. The global solar activity commences soon after the polar-field reversal in the form of two components in each hemisphere. The first component is identified with the polar faculae that appear at latitudes 40-70 deg and migrate polewards. The second and the more powerful component representing the sunspots shows up at 40 deg latitudes 5-6 years later and drifts equatorward, giving rise to a butterfly diagram. Thus the global solar activity is described by the faculae and the sunspots that occur at different latitude belts and displaced in time by 5-6 years.

  8. Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shibasaki, K.

    2011-12-01

    The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

  9. Solar neutron decay proton observations in cycle 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evenson, Paul; Kroeger, Richard; Meyer, Peter; Reames, Donald

    1990-01-01

    Measurement of the flux and energy spectrum of the protons resulting from the decay of solar flare neutrons gives unique information on the spectrum of neutrons from 5 to 200 MeV. Neutrons from three flares have been observed in this manner during solar cycle 21. The use of the decay protons to determine neutron energy spectra is reviewed, and new and definitive energy spectra are presented for the two large flares on June 3, 1982 and April 25, 1984.

  10. Investigating the Causes of Solar-Cycle Variations in Solar Energetic Particle Fluences and Composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mewaldt, Richard; Cohen, Christina; Mason, Glenn M.; von Rosenvinge, Tycho; Li, Gang; Smith, Charles; Vourlidas, Angelos

    2015-04-01

    Measurements with ACE, STEREO, and GOES show that the number of large Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in solar cycle 24 is reduced by a factor of ~2 compared to this point of cycle 23, while the fluences of >10 MeV/nuc ions from H to Fe are reduced by factors ranging from ~4 to ~10. We investigate the origin of these cycle-to-cycle differences by evaluating possible factors that include properties of the associated CMEs, seed particle densities, and the interplanetary magnetic field strength and turbulence levels. These properties will be evaluated in the context of existing SEP acceleration models.

  11. Variation of Meteor Heights and Solar-Cycle Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porubcan, Vladimír; Bucek, Marek; Cevolani, Giordano; Zigo, Pavel

    2012-08-01

    Photographic meteor observations of the Perseid meteoroid stream compiled from the IAU Meteor Data Center catalogue are analyzed from the viewpoint of possible long-term variation of meteor heights with the solar-cycle activity, which was previously reported from radio observations. The observed beginning and end-point heights of the Perseids, normalized for the geocentric velocity and the absolute photographic magnitude, do not show a variation consistent with the solar-cycle activity. This result is valid for the mass range of larger meteoroids observed by photographic techniques, and must be still verified also for the range of smaller meteoroids observed by TV and radio methods.

  12. SOLAR ROTATION RATE DURING THE CYCLE 24 MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY

    SciTech Connect

    Antia, H. M.; Basu, Sarbani E-mail: sarbani.basu@yale.ed

    2010-09-01

    The minimum of solar cycle 24 is significantly different from most other minima in terms of its duration as well as its abnormally low levels of activity. Using available helioseismic data that cover epochs from the minimum of cycle 23 to now, we study the differences in the nature of the solar rotation between the minima of cycles 23 and 24. We find that there are significant differences between the rotation rates during the two minima. There are differences in the zonal-flow pattern too. We find that the band of fast rotating region close to the equator bifurcated around 2005 and recombined by 2008. This behavior is different from that during the cycle 23 minimum. By autocorrelating the zonal-flow pattern with a time shift, we find that in terms of solar dynamics, solar cycle 23 lasted for a period of 11.7 years, consistent with the result of Howe et al. (2009). The autocorrelation coefficient also confirms that the zonal-flow pattern penetrates through the convection zone.

  13. A Statistical Test of Uniformity in Solar Cycle Indices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway David H.

    2012-01-01

    Several indices are used to characterize the solar activity cycle. Key among these are: the International Sunspot Number, the Group Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area, and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. A valuable aspect of these indices is the length of the record -- many decades and many (different) 11-year cycles. However, this valuable length-of-record attribute has an inherent problem in that it requires many different observers and observing systems. This can lead to non-uniformity in the datasets and subsequent erroneous conclusions about solar cycle behavior. The sunspot numbers are obtained by counting sunspot groups and individual sunspots on a daily basis. This suggests that the day-to-day and month-to-month variations in these numbers should follow Poisson Statistics and be proportional to the square-root of the sunspot numbers themselves. Examining the historical records of these indices indicates that this is indeed the case - even with Sunspot Area and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. The ratios of the RMS variations to the square-root of the indices themselves are relatively constant with little variation over the phase of each solar cycle or from small to large solar cycles. There are, however, important step-like changes in these ratios associated with changes in observer and/or observer system. Here we show how these variations can be used to construct more uniform datasets.

  14. THREE-DIMENSIONAL EVOLUTION OF SOLAR WIND DURING SOLAR CYCLES 22-24

    SciTech Connect

    Manoharan, P. K.

    2012-06-01

    This paper presents an analysis of three-dimensional evolution of solar wind density turbulence and speed at various levels of solar activity between solar cycles 22 and 24. The solar wind data used in this study have been obtained from the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements made at the Ooty Radio Telescope, operating at 327 MHz. Results show that (1) on average, there was a downward trend in density turbulence from the maximum of cycle 22 to the deep minimum phase of cycle 23; (2) the scattering diameter of the corona around the Sun shrunk steadily toward the Sun, starting from 2003 to the smallest size at the deepest minimum, and it corresponded to a reduction of {approx}50% in the density turbulence between the maximum and minimum phases of cycle 23; (3) the latitudinal distribution of the solar wind speed was significantly different between the minima of cycles 22 and 23. At the minimum phase of solar cycle 22, when the underlying solar magnetic field was simple and nearly dipole in nature, the high-speed streams were observed from the poles to {approx}30 Degree-Sign latitudes in both hemispheres. In contrast, in the long-decay phase of cycle 23, the sources of the high-speed wind at both poles, in accordance with the weak polar fields, occupied narrow latitude belts from poles to {approx}60 Degree-Sign latitudes. Moreover, in agreement with the large amplitude of the heliospheric current sheet, the low-speed wind prevailed in the low- and mid-latitude regions of the heliosphere. (4) At the transition phase between cycles 23 and 24, the high levels of density and density turbulence were observed close to the heliospheric equator and the low-speed solar wind extended from the equatorial-to-mid-latitude regions. The above results in comparison with Ulysses and other in situ measurements suggest that the source of the solar wind has changed globally, with the important implication that the supply of mass and energy from the Sun to the interplanetary

  15. Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

    2002-07-01

    In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

  16. New characteristics of the solar cycle and dynamo theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otkidychev, P. A.; Popova, E. P.

    2015-06-01

    Based on an analysis of the observational data for solar cycles 12-23 (Royal Greenwich Observatory-USAF/NOAA Sunspot Data), we have studied various parameters of the "Maunder butterflies." Based on the observational data for cycles 16-23, we have found that BT/ Land S depend linearly on each other, where B is the mean magnetic field of the cycle, T is the cycle duration, S is the cycle strength, and L is the mean sunspot latitude in the cycle (the arithmetic mean of the absolute values of the mean latitudes in the north and south). The connection of the observed quantities with the α- ω-dynamo theory is discussed.

  17. Change of solar wind quasi-invariant in solar cycle 23—Analysis of PDFs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leitner, M.; Farrugia, C. J.; Vörös, Z.

    2011-02-01

    An in situ solar wind measurement which is a very good proxy for solar activity, correlating well with the sunspot number, is the solar wind “quasi-invariant” (QI), which is defined as the ratio between magnetic and kinetic energy densities. Here we use 1-min OMNI data to determine yearly probability density functions (PDFs) for QI. We distinguish between fast and slow solar winds, and exclude interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the data, since the latter have a different distribution. Fitting the PDFs by a log-kappa distribution, we discuss the variation of QI in the period 1995-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23 and the long, very quiet minimum in 2007-2009. The additional value of kappa allows us to obtain a better description for the tails of the distribution than the log-normal approach. Here we describe for the first time how parameter kappa changes over one solar cycle.

  18. The Measurement of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability during the Solar Cycle 24 using SOLAR/SOLSPEC on ISS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolsée, David; Pereira, Nuno; Pandey, Praveen; Cessateur, Gaël; Gillotay, Didier; Foujols, Thomas; Hauchecorne, Alain; Bekki, Slimane; Marchand, Marion; Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Bureau, Jerôme

    2016-04-01

    Since April 2008, SOLAR/SOLSPEC measures the Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from 166 nm to 3088 nm. The instrument is a part of the Solar Monitoring Observatory (SOLAR) payload, externally mounted on the Columbus module of the International Space Station. As the SSI is a key input for the validation of solar physics models, together with playing a role in the climate system and photochemistry of the Earth atmosphere, SOLAR/SOLSPEC spectral measurements becomes important. In this study, the in-flight operations and performances of the instrument -including the engineering corrections- will be presented for seven years of the SOLAR mission. Following an accurate absolute calibration, the SSI variability in the UV as measured by SOLAR/SOLSPEC in the course of the solar cycle 24 will be presented and compared to other instruments. The accuracy of these measurements will be also discussed here.

  19. Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Drob, D. P.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the

  20. Phase Relationships of Solar Hemispheric Toroidal and Poloidal Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muraközy, J.

    2016-08-01

    The solar northern and southern hemispheres exhibit differences in their intensities and time profiles of the activity cycles. The time variation of these properties was studied in a previous article covering the data from Cycles 12–23. The hemispheric phase lags exhibited a characteristic variation: the leading role was exchanged between hemispheres every four cycles. The present work extends the investigation of this variation using the data of Staudacher and Schwabe in Cycles 1–4 and 7–10 as well as Spörer’s data in Cycle 11. The previously observed variation cannot be clearly recognized using the data of Staudacher, Schwabe, and Spörer. However, it is more interesting that the phase lags of the reversals of the magnetic fields at the poles follow the same variations as those of the hemispheric cycles in Cycles 12–23, i.e., one of the hemispheres leads in four cyles and the leading role jumps to the opposite hemisphere in the next four cycles. This means that this variation is a long-term property of the entire solar dynamo mechanism, for both the toroidal and poloidal fields, which hints at an unidentified component of the process responsible for the long-term memory.

  1. Coupled G-Mode Intersections and Solar-Cycle Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juckett, David A.

    2010-03-01

    Wolff ( Astrophys. J. 193, 721, 1974) introduced the concept of g-mode coupling within the solar interior. Subsequently, Wolff developed a more quantitative model invoking a reciprocal interaction between coupled g modes and burning in the solar core. Coupling is proposed to occur for constant values of the spherical harmonic degree [ ℓ] creating rigidly rotating structures denoted as sets( ℓ). Power would be concentrated near the core and the top of radiative zone [RZ] in narrow intervals of longitude on opposite sides of the Sun. Sets( ℓ) would migrate retrograde in the RZ as function of ℓ and their intersections would deposit extra energy at the top of the RZ. It is proposed that this enhances sunspot eruptions at particular longitudes and at regular time intervals. Juckett and Wolff ( Solar Phys. 252, 247, 2008) detected this enhancement by viewing selected spherical harmonics of sunspot patterns within stackplots twisted into the relative rotational frames of various sets( ℓ). In subsequent work, the timings of the set( ℓ) intersections were compared to the sub-decadal variability of the sunspot cycle. Seventeen sub-decadal intersection frequencies (0.63 - 7.0 year) were synchronous with 17 frequencies in the sunspot time-series with a mean correlation of 0.96. Six additional non-11-year frequencies (periods of 8.0 to 28.7 year) are now shown to be nearly synchronous between sunspot variability and the model. Two additional intersections have the same frequency as the solar cycle itself and peak during the rising phase of the solar cycle. This may be partly responsible for cycle asymmetry. These results are evidence that some of the solar-cycle variability may be attributable to deterministic components that are intermixed with a broad-spectrum stochastic and long-term chaotic background.

  2. BATSE flare observations in Solar Cycle 22

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwartz, R. A.; Dennis, B. R.; Fishman, G. J.; Meegan, C. A.; Wilson, R. B.; Paciesas, W. S.

    1992-01-01

    The Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) group at GSFC has developed and is maintaining a quick-look analysis system for solar flare hard x-ray data from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the recently launched Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (GRO). The instrument consists, in part, of 8 large planar detectors, each 2025 sq cm, placed on the corners of the GRO spacecraft with the orientation of the faces being those of a regular octahedron. Although optimized for the detection of gamma-ray bursts, these detectors are far more sensitive than any previous spacecraft-borne hard x-ray flare instrumentation both for the detection of small microflares and the resolution of fine temporal structures. The data in this BATSE solar data base are from the discriminator large area (DISCLA) rates. From each of eight detectors there are hard x-ray data in four energy channels, 25-50, 50-100, 100-300, and greater than 300 keV with a time resolution of 1.024 seconds. These data are suitable for temporal correlation with data at other wavelengths, and they provide a first look into the BATSE and other GRO instrument flare data sets. The BATSE and other GRO principle investigator groups should be contacted for the availability of data sets at higher time or spectral resolution or at higher energies.

  3. Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan; Herz, Richard; Genders, David; Symons, Peter; Brown, Lloyd

    2014-04-25

    A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle for reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are

  4. Are ionospheric storms the same during different solar cycles?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendillo, Michael; Narvaez, Clara; Marusiak, Angela G.

    2013-10-01

    ionosphere's response to geomagnetic storms has been studied since the earliest days of terrestrial space physics. In terms of temporal coverage, the largest data sets used extensively have been from the global network of ionosondes. Many previous investigations examined the behavior of the F layer's maximum electron density (Nmax)—often contrasting the difference seen between storms that occur during solar maximum years versus those during solar minimum years. We report on the first attempt to study systematically the patterns of ionospheric disturbance seen during different solar cycles. We select two midlatitude sites with long-term consistency in data: Wallops Island (Virginia) and Hobart (Tasmania)—stations with comparable geographic and geomagnetic coordinates—but in different hemispheres and widely separated longitude sectors. We compare average ionospheric storm patterns using over 200 moderate to severe geomagnetic storms within each of solar cycle #20 (October 1964 to June 1976) and cycle #23 (May 1996 to December 2008). We compute average patterns of ΔNmax(%), measured with respect to monthly mean conditions, following storm and local time. The overall results show remarkable consistency in characteristic patterns of an ionospheric storm: a short positive phase that occurs during the daytime hours on the first day of a storm, with a prolonged negative phase on subsequent days. Statistical differences occur in the overall magnitudes and longevities of these patterns, consistently showing that cycle #23 had less severe ionospheric storms. An analysis of geomagnetic indices shows that degrees of disturbance were, in fact, lower during solar cycle #23 than cycle #20.

  5. Solar Cycle Variations of O VI and H I Lyman Alpha Intensities in the Solar Corona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miralles, M. P.; Panasyuk, A. V.; Strachan, L.; Gardner, L. D.; Suleiman, R. M.; Smith, P. L.; Kohl, J. L.

    2000-05-01

    UVCS/SOHO measurements of O VI (103.2 and 103.7 nm) and H I Lyman alpha intensities in the solar corona have been made from 1996 to the present spanning the rising phase of cycle 23. During solar minimum the corona consisted of large coronal holes at the poles and quiescent streamers at the equator. During the ascending phase of the cycle, the corona presented high latitude streamers and finally polar streamers as the Sun approached solar maximum. Recent observations of the solar corona show the presence of coronal holes at the equator and streamers at the poles. Our observations provide descriptions of these structures over the rising phase of the solar cycle. We compare the properties of quiescent equatorial streamers which occurred at solar minimum to high latitude and polar streamers observed toward solar maximum. We also compare solar minimum polar coronal holes to equatorial coronal holes present at solar maximum. We discuss how these results are related to the plasma properties. This work is supported by NASA under Grant NAG5-7822 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, by the Italian Space Agency and by PRODEX (Swiss contribution).

  6. Element Abundances in the Sun and Solar Wind Along the Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landi, Enrico

    2015-04-01

    Element abundances are a critical parameter in almost every aspect of solar physics, from regulating the energy flow and the structure of the solar interior, to shaping the energy losses of the solar atmosphere, ruling the radiative output of the UV, EUV and X-rays solar radiation which impacts the Earth's upper atmosphere, and determining the composition of the solar wind.In this work we study the evolution of the element abundances in the solar corona and in the solar wind from 1996 to date using data from SoHO, Hinode, Ulysses and ACE satellites, in order to determine their variability along the solar cycle, and the relationship between solar abundance variations in the solar wind and in its source regions in the solar atmosphere. We study all the most abundant elements, with a special emphasis on Ne and O. We discuss our results in light of the source region of the solar wind, and of the radiative output of the solar corona.

  7. Mir Cooperative Solar Array Project Accelerated Life Thermal Cycling Test

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, David J.; Scheiman, David A.

    1996-01-01

    The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) project was a joint U.S./Russian effort to build a photovoltaic (PV) solar array and deliver it to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA will be used to increase the electrical power on Mir and provide PV array performance data in support of Phase 1 of the International Space Station. The MCSA was brought to Mir by space shuttle Atlantis in November 1995. This report describes an accelerated thermal life cycle test which was performed on two samples of the MCSA. In eight months time, two MCSA solar array 'mini' panel test articles were simultaneously put through 24,000 thermal cycles. There was no significant degradation in the structural integrity of the test articles and no electrical degradation, not including one cell damaged early and removed from consideration. The nature of the performance degradation caused by this one cell is briefly discussed. As a result of this test, changes were made to improve some aspects of the solar cell coupon-to-support frame interface on the flight unit. It was concluded from the results that the integration of the U.S. solar cell modules with the Russian support structure would be able to withstand at least 24,000 thermal cycles (4 years on-orbit). This was considered a successful development test.

  8. Oscillator models of the solar cycle and the Waldmeier effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, M.; Petrovay, K.

    2013-11-01

    We study the behaviour of the van der Pol oscillator when either its damping parameter μ or its nonlinearity parameter ξ is subject to additive or multiplicative random noise. Assuming various power law exponents for the relation between the oscillating variable and the sunspot number, for each case we map the parameter plane defined by the amplitude and the correlation time of the perturbation and mark the parameter regime where the sunspot number displays solar-like behaviour. Solar-like behaviour is defined here as a good correlation between the rise rate and cycle amplitude and the lack of a good correlation between the decay rate and amplitude, together with significant ({⪆ 10} %) r.m.s. variation in cycle lengths and cycle amplitudes. It is found that perturbing μ alone the perturbed van der Pol oscillator does not show solar-like behaviour. When the perturbed variable is ξ, solar-like behaviour is displayed for perturbations with a correlation time of about 3-4 years and significant amplitude. Such studies may provide useful constraints on solar dynamo models and their parameters.

  9. Results of accelerated thermal cycle tests of solar cells modules

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berman, P.; Mueller, R.; Salama, M.; Yasui, R.

    1976-01-01

    Various candidate solar panel designs were evaluated, both theoretically and experimentally, with respect to their thermal cycling survival capability, and in particular with respect to an accelerated simulation of thermal cycles representative of Viking '75 mission requirements. The experimental results were obtained on 'mini-panels' thermally cycled in a newly installed automated test facility herein described. The resulting damage was analyzed physically and theoretically, and on the basis of these analyses the panel design was suitably modified to significantly improve its ability to withstand the thermal environment. These successful modifications demonstrate the value of the complementary theoretical-experimental approach adopted, and discussed in detail in this paper.

  10. Magnetic cycles in global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of solar convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charbonneau, P.

    2011-12-01

    In this talk I will review some recent advances in our understanding of the solar magnetic cycle through global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of thermally-driven convection in a thick, stratified spherical shell of electrically conducting fluid. I will focus on three related issues: (1) the nature of the turbulent dynamo mechanism; (2) the nature of the mechanism(s) controlling the cycle amplitude; and (3) epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitudes, and the existence of possible precursor to such events to be found in the patterns of magnetically-driven torsional oscillations and meridional flow variations arising in the simulations.

  11. Thermal stress cycling of GaAs solar cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francis, Robert W.

    1987-01-01

    Thermal stress cycling was performed on gallium arsenide solar cells to investigate their electrical, mechanical, and structural integrity. Cells were cycled under low Earth orbit (LEO) simulated temperature conditions in vacuum. Cell evaluations consisted of power output values, spectral response, optical microscopy and ion microprobe mass analysis, and depth profiles on both front surface inter-grid areas and metallization contact grid lines. Cells were examined for degradation after 500, 5,000, 10,000 and 15,245 thermal cycles. No indication of performance degradation was found for any vendor's cell lot.

  12. EFFECTS OF INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increases in solar UV radiation could affect terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemical cycles thus altering both sources and sinks of greenhouse and chemically important trace gases (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), carbonyl sulfide (COS)). n terrestrial ecosystems,...

  13. Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

    PubMed Central

    Zurbenko, Igor

    2014-01-01

    Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

  14. A Different View of Solar Cycle Spectral Variations: Total Energy during Isolated Solar Outburst Periods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woods, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) varies on all time scales, and these variations are highly dependent on wavelength. The daily and 27-day solar rotation variations are best understood from many different satellite observations over the past five decades. There has also been much progress in understanding the longer term 11-year solar activity cycle variations. However, instrument degradation corrections are not as accurate as sometimes needed for long-term studies, thus there can be challenges in understanding the solar cycle variations at some wavelengths. In particular, the Harder et al. (GRL, 36, L07801, 2009) results for the near ultraviolet (NUV), visible, and near infrared (NIR) have indicated more NUV variation and some out-of-phase variation for some visible and NIR wavelengths. These variations have been challenged as they are inconsistent with some prior measurements and with some SSI models. A different approach to study the solar cycle variations, but without the need for long-term instrument degradation corrections, is to examine the total energy during isolated solar outburst periods. A solar active region typically appears suddenly and then takes about seven months to decay and disperse back into the quiet Sun network. The isolated outburst period refers to when only one major active region dominates the irradiance variation. The solar outburst energy, which includes all phases of active region evolution, could be considered to be the primary cause for solar cycle variations. Using TIMED, SDO, and SORCE extreme ultraviolet and far ultraviolet observations, the outburst energy (7 months) spectral variation is found to be very similar to their multi-year (solar cycle) variation. The same approach is applied for studying the NUV-Visible-NIR variations from SORCE, and these new results provide a different, and perhaps more accurate, indicator of SSI variation.

  15. High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ball, W. T.; Haigh, J. D.; Rozanov, E. V.; Kuchar, A.; Sukhodolov, T.; Tummon, F.; Shapiro, A. V.; Schmutz, W.

    2016-03-01

    Solar variability can influence surface climate, for example by affecting the mid-to-high-latitude surface pressure gradient associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. One key mechanism behind such an influence is the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by ozone in the tropical stratosphere, a process that modifies temperature and wind patterns and hence wave propagation and atmospheric circulation. The amplitude of UV variability is uncertain, yet it directly affects the magnitude of the climate response: observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite show broadband changes up to three times larger than previous measurements. Here we present estimates of the stratospheric ozone variability during the solar cycle. Specifically, we estimate the photolytic response of stratospheric ozone to changes in spectral solar irradiance by calculating the difference between a reference chemistry-climate model simulation of ozone variability driven only by transport (with no changes in solar irradiance) and observations of ozone concentrations. Subtracting the reference from simulations with time-varying irradiance, we can evaluate different data sets of measured and modelled spectral irradiance. We find that at altitudes above pressure levels of 5 hPa, the ozone response to solar variability simulated using the SORCE spectral solar irradiance data are inconsistent with the observations.

  16. Variations in the Sun's Meridional Flow Over a Solar Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hathaway, David H.; Rightmire, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    The Sun's meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that is generally directed from its equator toward its poles at the surface. The structure and strength of the meridional flow determine both the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic field and the intensity of sunspot cycles. We determine the meridional flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The average flow is poleward at all latitudes up to 75 , which suggests that it extends to the poles. It was faster at sun spot cycle minimum than at maximum and substantially faster on the approach to the current minimum than it was at the last solar minimum. This result may help to ex plain why this solar activity minimum is so peculiar.

  17. OH Column Abundance Apparent Response to Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burnett, C. R.; Minschwaner, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    The 33-year series of high spectral resolution measurements of absorption of sunlight by OH at 308 nm has exhibited temporary decreases of column abundances in 1986, 1997, and 2008 near the times of minimum solar activity. These observations and analyses are of significance as they encompass three complete solar cycles for comparison. During solar cycle 23, the annual average abundances increased approximately 20% from the minimum abundance in 1997 to high-sun enhanced values in 2000-2006, then dropped approximately 15% in 2008. The abundances exhibited a pronounced reduction at solar minimum in August-October 2008, similar to that seen in fall 1986 and fall 1997. The average morning abundances on those occasions were 13% smaller than the 1980-88 corresponding average, about 0.9 x 1013 cm-2, with minimum values broadly consistent with model results. In contrast, high-sun OH abundances observed during periods of solar maximum are approximately 33% larger than modeled abundances. This discrepancy cannot be explained by reasonable adjustments of reaction rates or modeled constituent concentrations in the stratosphere or mesosphere. However, the observed responses to a tropopause fold event in 1988 and to the Pinatubo aerosol in 1991 do suggest an important contribution to the total OH column from the lower stratosphere. In addition to the apparent variations with solar activity, this OH column database contains a number of other effects such as diurnal and seasonal patterns, and geographic differences between observations from Colorado, Florida, Alaska, Micronesia, New Zealand, and New Mexico.

  18. Cycle Length Dependence of Stellar Magnetic Activity and Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hwajin; Lee, Jeongwoo; Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong; Kim, Hoonkyu; Yi, Yu

    2015-03-01

    Solar cycle (SC) 23 was extraordinarily long with remarkably low magnetic activity. We have investigated whether this is a common behavior of solar-type stars. From the Ca ii H and K line intensities of 111 stars observed at Mount Wilson Observatory from 1966 to 1991, we have retrieved data of all 23 G-type stars and recalculated their cycle lengths using the damped least-squares method for the chromospheric activity index S as a function of time. A regression analysis was performed to find relations between the derived cycle length, Pavg, and the index for excess chromospheric emission, RHK\\prime . As a noteworthy result, we found a segregation between young and old solar-type stars in the cycle length-activity correlation. We incorporated the relation for the solar-type stars into the previously known rule for stellar chromospheric activity and brightness to estimate the variation of solar brightness from SC 22 to SC 23 as (0.12 ± 0.06)%, much higher than the actual variation of total solar irradiance (TSI) ≤0.02%. We have then examined solar spectral irradiance (SSI) to find a good phase correlation with a sunspot number in the wavelength range of 170-260 nm, which is close to the spectral range effective in heating the Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, it appears that SSI rather than TSI is a good indicator of the chromospheric activity, and its cycle length dependent variation would be more relevant to the possible role of the Sun in the cyclic variation of the Earth’s atmosphere.

  19. Solar powered Stirling cycle electrical generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaltens, Richard K.

    1991-01-01

    Under NASA's Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI), the NASA Lewis Research Center is developing the technology needed for free-piston Stirling engines as a candidate power source for space systems in the late 1990's and into the next century. Space power requirements include high efficiency, very long life, high reliability, and low vibration. Furthermore, system weight and operating temperature are important. The free-piston Stirling engine has the potential for a highly reliable engine with long life because it has only a few moving parts, non-contacting gas bearings, and can be hermetically sealed. These attributes of the free-piston Stirling engine also make it a viable candidate for terrestrial applications. In cooperation with the Department of Energy, system designs are currently being completed that feature the free-piston Stirling engine for terrestrial applications. Industry teams were assembled and are currently completing designs for two Advanced Stirling Conversion Systems utilizing technology being developed under the NASA CSTI Program. These systems, when coupled with a parabolic mirror to collect the solar energy, are capable of producing about 25 kW of electricity to a utility grid. Industry has identified a niche market for dish Stirling systems for worldwide remote power application. They believe that these niche markets may play a major role in the introduction of Stirling products into the commercial market.

  20. Solar powered Stirling cycle electrical generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaltens, Richard K.

    1991-03-01

    Under NASA's Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI), the NASA Lewis Research Center is developing the technology needed for free-piston Stirling engines as a candidate power source for space systems in the late 1990's and into the next century. Space power requirements include high efficiency, very long life, high reliability, and low vibration. Furthermore, system weight and operating temperature are important. The free-piston Stirling engine has the potential for a highly reliable engine with long life because it has only a few moving parts, non-contacting gas bearings, and can be hermetically sealed. These attributes of the free-piston Stirling engine also make it a viable candidate for terrestrial applications. In cooperation with the Department of Energy, system designs are currently being completed that feature the free-piston Stirling engine for terrestrial applications. Industry teams were assembled and are currently completing designs for two Advanced Stirling Conversion Systems utilizing technology being developed under the NASA CSTI Program. These systems, when coupled with a parabolic mirror to collect the solar energy, are capable of producing about 25 kW of electricity to a utility grid. Industry has identified a niche market for dish Stirling systems for worldwide remote power application. They believe that these niche markets may play a major role in the introduction of Stirling products into the commercial market.

  1. Solar flare particle fluences during solar cycles 19, 20 and 21

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcguire, R. E.; Goswami, J. N.; Jha, R.; Lal, D.; Reedy, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Satellite data for solar flare particle events during solar cycle 21 (up to July 1982) have been analyzed to obtain event-integrated fluxes of energetic protons and alpha particles. Thirty nine events with proton fluences (E greater than 10 MeV) greater than 10-million/sq cm occurred during 1976-1982. The average flux of protons with kinetic energy greater than 10 MeV is 65 per sq cm/s for this period. The event averaged alpha to proton ratio, in the energy interval 1-22 MeV/n, varies between 0.006 to 0.04, with an average value of about 0.02 for the whole cycle. The flux of protons (with energies greater than 10 MeV) averaged over cycle 21 is lower than those for solar-cycle 20 per sq cm/s based on satellite data, and for solar-cycle 19 378 per sq cm/s based on lunar sample data. There is no definitive correlation between solar-cycle averaged proton fluxes and sunspot numbers.

  2. Variations of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic parameters with solar magnetic multipole fields during Solar Cycles 21-24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Bogyeong; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yi, Yu; Oh, Suyeon

    2015-01-01

    In this study we compare the temporal variations of the solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic (SIG) parameters with that of open solar magnetic flux from 1976 to 2012 (from Solar Cycle 21 to the early phase of Cycle 24) for a purpose of identifying their possible relationships. By the open flux, we mean the average magnetic field over the source surface (2.5 solar radii) times the source area as defined by the potential field source surface (PFSS) model of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). In our result, most SIG parameters except the solar wind dynamic pressure show rather poor correlations with the open solar magnetic field. Good correlations are recovered when the contributions from individual multipole components are counted separately. As expected, solar activity indices such as sunspot number, total solar irradiance, 10.7 cm radio flux, and solar flare occurrence are highly correlated with the flux of magnetic quadrupole component. The dynamic pressure of solar wind is strongly correlated with the dipole flux, which is in anti-phase with Solar Cycle (SC). The geomagnetic activity represented by the Ap index is correlated with higher order multipole components, which show relatively a slow time variation with SC. We also found that the unusually low geomagnetic activity during SC 23 is accompanied by the weak open solar fields compared with those in other SCs. It is argued that such dependences of the SIG parameters on the individual multipole components of the open solar magnetic flux may clarify why some SIG parameters vary in phase with SC and others show seemingly delayed responses to SC variation.

  3. Solar/gas Brayton/Rankine cycle heat pump assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, J.; Liu, A. Y.

    1982-05-01

    A 10-ton gas-fired heat pump is currently under development at AiResearch under joint DOE and GRI sponsorship. This heat pump features a highly efficient, recuperated, subatmospheric Brayton-cycle engine which drives the centrifugal compressor of a reversible vapor compression heat pump. The investigations under this program were concerned initially with the integration of this machine with a parabolic dish-type solar collector. Computer models were developed to accurately describe the performance of the heat pump packaged in this fashion. The study determined that (1) only a small portion (20 to 50 percent) of the available solar energy could be used because of a fundamental mismatch between the heating and cooling demand and the availability of solar energy, and (2) the simple pay back period, by comparison to the baseline non-solar gas-fired heat pump, was unacceptable (15 to 36 years).

  4. Helium 10830 Å airglow emission response to solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patel, P. P.; Azeem, S. M.; Sivjee, G. G.

    2007-05-01

    It has been suggested by Gadsden [1967] that the radiance of Helium 10830 Å line can be used to monitor the solar irradiance in the EUV. Conversely, we can use the 10830 Å line to study the response of the upper atmosphere over the course of a solar cycle. In this paper we will examine Helium emission line at 10830 Å to study the correlation between brightness of the emission line with F10.7 solar flux. The Helium data was acquired from Michelson Interferometers located at two stations, South Pole Station (90° S), Antarctica and Resolute Bay (74.68° N, 94.90° W), Canada. The data will be examined to isolate periods with no auroral contamination. Long term HeI data, from 1992 to 2005, will be presented to study correlation between Helium brightness and the F10.7 solar flux.

  5. Solar Sources of 3He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events in Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Nariaki V.; Mason, Glenn M.; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina; Wiedenbeck, Mark E.

    2015-04-01

    We still do not understand the origin of impulsive SEP events enriched in 3He and heavy ions. A major impediment may be the difficulty to observe them in the corona, apart from the common knowledge that 3He-rich SEP events are correlated with longer-than-metric type III radio bursts and <100 keV electron events. This is because their X-ray and EUV signatures tend to be tiny and short-lived. Using high-cadence and high-sensitivity EUV images obtained by SDO/AIA, we investigate the solar sources of 26 3He-rich SEP events during solar cycle 24 that were well-observed by ACE. The source locations are further confirmed in data from STEREO/EUVI, which capture solar activities in the regions inaccessible from the Earth. We confirm that 3He-rich events have a broad longitudinal distribution (including locations well behind the west limb) and that a frequent association with coronal jets and narrow CMEs. Some events were seen in association with eruptions of closed structures and large-scale coronal propagating fronts (LCPFs, aka EUV waves). While these LCPFs may account for the occasional mismatching polarities at the source region and L1 in such a way that the particles are transported to and released at a region that has the opposite polarity, their associated CMEs may not be fast enough to drive shock waves for particle acceleration. Moreover, open field lines from PFSS models may not be correct for the entire Sun although they often look reasonable in discrete locations. We also discuss the apparent lack of correlation between the solar sources and the basic properties of 3He-rich SEP events.

  6. Analytical Study of Geomagnetic and Solar Activities During Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hady, A. A.

    The data of amplitude and phase of most common indicators of geomagnetic activities (especially aa index, A? index) have been analyzed and compared with the solar ac- tivities in the time of solar cycle 23(started from 1996 to 2007). The data taken from NOAA space environment center (SES), USA. during the period starting April 1996 Until Dec. 2001, have been analyzed by power spectrum method. The prediction until year 2007 of geomagnetic activities were studied according to the whole of behavior of solar cycle 23. The results show a good indication of the effects of solar activities on changes of earth climate and weather forecasting. The results are important to various techniques including the operation of low earth orbiting satellites. The climatologi- cal approach makes use of the secular trend since year 1900 until now, by about 15 nanotesla. This indication was recorded too, in solar activity changes during the last century.

  7. The solar dynamo and prediction of sunspot cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2012-07-01

    Much progress has been made in understanding the solar dynamo since Parker first developed the concepts of dynamo waves and magnetic buoyancy around 1955, and the German school first formulated the solar dynamo using the mean-field formalism. The essential ingredients of these mean-field dynamos are turbulent magnetic diffusivity, a source of lifting of flux, or 'alpha-effect', and differential rotation. With the advent of helioseismic and other observations at the Sun's photosphere and interior, as well as theoretical understanding of solar interior dynamics, solar dynamo models have evolved both in the realm of mean-field and beyond mean-field models. After briefly discussing the status of these models, I will focus on a class of mean-field model, called flux-transport dynamos, which include meridional circulation as an essential additional ingredient. Flux-transport dynamos have been successful in simulating many global solar cycle features, and have reached the stage that they can be used for making solar cycle predictions. Meridional circulation works in these models like a conveyor-belt, carrying a memory of the magnetic fields from 5 to 20 years back in past. The lower is the magnetic diffusivity, the longer is the model's memory. In the terrestrial system, the great-ocean conveyor-belt in oceanic models and Hadley, polar and Ferrel circulation cells in the troposphere, carry signatures from the past climatological events and influence the determination of future events. Analogously, the memory provided by the Sun's meridional circulation creates the potential for flux-transport dynamos to predict future solar cycle properties. Various groups in the world have built flux-transport dynamo-based predictive tools, which nudge the Sun's surface magnetic data and integrated forward in time to forecast the amplitude of the currently ascending cycle 24. Due to different initial conditions and different choices of unknown model-ingredients, predictions can vary; so

  8. On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

  9. Solar Wind and Magnetic Storms in 24-th Cycle of Solar Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Val'chuk, T. E.

    2013-01-01

    Slow growth of 24-th solar cycle allows adding of this cycle to the type of low cycles. Geomagnetic activity is not expensive too - strong geomagnetic storms were absent in the beginning of growth branch of this cycle. Very prolonged minimum was lasting about 4 years. We may remember that century minimum of solar activity was proposed after XX century high strong cycles. It may be - we look this situation now in 2012. Our work is connected with sporadic phenomena in 24-th cycle. These more or less intensive variations of solar activity are not predicted, they are caused by flowing up of new magnetic fields of spots, the excitement of flares, intensive plasma flows, coronal mass ejections (CME) and filament eruptions. Now two last versions (CME and filaments) are primary. Geomagnetic activity on a descending phase of solar cycle depends on quality of coronal holes providing the recurrent geomagnetic storms. Sporadic phenomena, which generated geomagnetic storms in Earth magnetosphere if flare flows reached the Earth magnetosphere and transferred it the energy are more interesting for us - they are the valuable characteristics of 24-th cycle. The disturbed period of several geomagnetic storms was generated by solar active region N11429. It is one sample only, this case is difficult and indicative. Replacing each other scenarios describe geomagnetic variations at the beginning of March 2012. Detailed consideration of this interval revealed its communication with sporadic events on the Sun. The structural configuration of plasma in flare flows was defined by means fractal dimension calculations of solar plasma parameters: velocity Vx and density N in flare streams.

  10. Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cable, Samual B.; Sutton, Eric K.; Lin, chin S.; Liou, J.-C.

    2011-01-01

    Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

  11. Different Sun-Earth energy coupling between different solar cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamauchi, Masatoshi

    2015-04-01

    Geoeffect of the extremely low solar (sunspot) activity starting from the last solar minimum is one of major space science issues. This study compared responses of global geomagnetic indices Dst, Kp, and AL to the same solar wind conditions (density, velocity, magnetic field and their products) between the recent decade (2005-2014) and each of the previous four decades (1965-1974, 1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2004) using the NASA OMNI hourly values up to August 2014. It is found that geomagnetic activity for a given solar wind condition, namely the Sun-Earth coupling efficiency, during the last 10 years (from after the declining phase of cycle #23 to the maximum of cycle #24) is quantitatively lower than those during the previous four decades (each decade approximately corresponds to cycles #20--23, respectively). The low Sun-Earth coupling efficiency became obvious from around 2006 and continued until now with a sharp peak at 2009. The speciality after 2006 is more obvious in Dst than in AL. Acknowledgement: Dst, Kp, AL, and sunspot numbers (RI) are official IAGA and IAA endorsed indices that are provided by World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto University, Japan (Dst and AL), GFZ, Adolf-Schmidt-Observatory Niemegk, Germany (Kp), and the Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels (RI). Including these indices, all data in hourly values are obtained from NASA-GSFC/SPDF through OMNIWeb (http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/ow.html).

  12. Nonlinear data assimilation: towards a prediction of the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svedin, Andreas

    The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. Our interest is model-based prediction, and we present a self-consistent procedure for parameter estimation and model state estimation, even when only one of several model variables can be observed. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. We use the 3DVAR methodology, based on the notion of least squares, to present an implementation of a traditional data assimilation. Using the Shadowing Filter — a recently developed method for nonlinear data assimilation — we outline a path towards model based prediction of the solar cycle. To achieve this end we solve a number of methodological challenges related to unobserved variables. We also provide a new framework for interpretation that can guide future predictions of the Sun and other astrophysical objects.

  13. Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nuss, H. E.

    1980-01-01

    For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method.

  14. Central antarctic climate response to the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volobuev, D. M.

    2014-05-01

    Antarctic "Vostok" station works most closely to the center of the ice cap among permanent year-around stations. Climate conditions are exclusively stable: low precipitation level, cloudiness and wind velocity. These conditions can be considered as an ideal model laboratory to study the surface temperature response on solar irradiance variability during 11-year cycle of solar activity. Here we solve an inverse heat conductivity problem: calculate the boundary heat flux density (HFD) from known evolution of temperature. Using meteorological temperature record during (1958-2011) we calculated the HFD variation about 0.2-0.3 W/m2 in phase with solar activity cycle. This HFD variation is derived from 0.5 to 1 °C temperature variation and shows relatively high climate sensitivity per 0.1 % of solar radiation change. This effect can be due to the polar amplification phenomenon, which predicts a similar response 0.3-0.8 °C/0.1 % (Gal-Chen and Schneider in Tellus 28:108-121, 1975). The solar forcing (TSI) is disturbed by volcanic forcing (VF), so that their linear combination TSI + 0.5VF empirically provides higher correlation with HFD (r = 0.63 ± 0.22) than TSI (r = 0.50 ± 0.24) and VF (r = 0.41 ± 0.25) separately. TSI shows higher wavelet coherence and phase agreement with HFD than VF.

  15. Thermal Cycling of Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) Test Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, David J.; Scheiman, David A.

    1997-01-01

    The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) project was a joint US/Russian effort to build a photovoltaic (PV) solar array and deliver it to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA is currently being used to increase the electrical power on Mir and provide PV array performance data in support of Phase 1 of the International Space Station (ISS), which will use arrays based on the same solar cells used in the MCSA. The US supplied the photovoltaic power modules (PPMs) and provided technical and programmatic oversight while Russia provided the array support structures and deployment mechanism and built and tested the array. In order to ensure that there would be no problems with the interface between US and Russian hardware, an accelerated thermal life cycle test was performed at NASA Lewis Research Center on two representative samples of the MCSA. Over an eight-month period (August 1994 - March 1995), two 15-cell MCSA solar array 'mini' panel test articles were simultaneously put through 24,000 thermal cycles (+80 C to -100 C), equivalent to four years on-orbit. The test objectives, facility, procedure and results are described in this paper. Post-test inspection and evaluation revealed no significant degradation in the structural integrity of the test articles and no electrical degradation, not including one cell damaged early as an artifact of the test and removed from consideration. The interesting nature of the performance degradation caused by this one cell, which only occurred at elevated temperatures, is discussed. As a result of this test, changes were made to improve some aspects of the solar cell coupon-to-support frame interface on the flight unit. It was concluded from the results that the integration of the US solar cell modules with the Russian support structure would be able to withstand at least 24,000 thermal cycles (4 years on-orbit).

  16. Study on solar energetic particles in the rising half of solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miteva, Rositsa; Samwel, Susan

    We present a list of 45 solar energetic particle (SEP) events in solar cycle 24 (2007-2013) following the preliminary listing by NOAA GOES and SEPServer SOHO/ERNE. We identified the onset time and peak intensity for the protons from Wind/EPACT and electrons from ACE/EPAM data. We propose flare/coronal mass ejection (CME) identification for each SEP event. We note a slightly higher percentage of eastern events (36 percent) in the first half of the present solar cycle compared to the entire previous one (27 percent). We completed a correlation study between the particle intensities and the flare GOES class and CME projected speed from SOHO/LASCO-C2 catalog. We found a lower correlation between the eastern SEPs peak intensities and the flare class, compared to the CME speed, although the difference is not statistically significant. Finally, we comment on the differences between SEP events and parent solar activity in the solar cycle 23 and rising part of solar cycle 24.

  17. Solar cycle variations in the powers and damping rates of low-degree solar acoustic oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broomhall, A.-M.; Pugh, C. E.; Nakariakov, V. M.

    2015-12-01

    Helioseismology uses the Sun's natural resonant oscillations to study the solar interior. The properties of the solar oscillations are sensitive to the Sun'2019;s magnetic activity cycle. Here we examine variations in the powers, damping rates, and energy supply rates of the most prominent acoustic oscillations in unresolved, Sun-as-a-star data, obtained by the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network (BiSON) during solar cycles 22, 23, and the first half of 24. The variations in the helioseismic parameters are compared to the 10.7 cm flux, a well-known global proxy of solar activity. As expected the oscillations are most heavily damped and the mode powers are at a minimum at solar activity maximum. The 10.7 cm flux was linearly regressed using the fractional variations of damping rates and powers observed during cycle 23. In general, good agreement is found between the damping rates and the 10.7 cm flux. However, the linearly regressed 10.7 cm flux and fractional variation in powers diverge in cycles 22 and 24, indicating that the relationship between the mode powers and the 10.7 cm flux is not consistent from one cycle to the next. The energy supply rate of the oscillations, which is usually approximately constant, also decreases at this time. We have determined that this discrepancy is not because of the first-order bias introduced by an increase in the level of background noise or gaps in the data. Although we cannot categorically rule out an instrumental origin, the divergence observed in cycle 24, when the data were of high quality and the data coverage was over 80%, raises the possibility that the effect may be solar in origin.

  18. Solar Cycle comparison of Nitric Oxide in the lower thermosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carstens, P. L.; Bailey, S. M.; Thurairajah, B.; Yonker, J. D.; Venkataramani, K.; Russell, J. M.; Hervig, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) is a key minor constituent in the lower thermosphere. Of particular importance is its role in the energy balance in that altitude region. NO is produced through the reaction of excited atomic nitrogen with molecular oxygen. Thus, its production is very sensitive to those energy sources able to break the strong molecular nitrogen bond. These include solar soft X-rays and precipitating energetic particles. NO emits efficiently in the infrared and is an important cooling mechanism in the lower thermosphere. The abundance of NO is thus both a direct response to recent energy deposition as well as a key mechanism by which the upper atmosphere releases that energy. The concentration of NO should show a close relation to solar energy input. In this poster, we analyze the NO observations from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument. The SOFIE instrument was launched on-board the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite on April 25, 2007. It is currently in its sixth year of operation. SOFIE is a 16 channel differential absorption radiometer using the solar occultation technique to measure ice and environmental properties at a range of altitudes, and in particular the mesopause region. One of the constituents measured by SOFIE is NO in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere to about 130 km. The AIM orbit and the solar occultation technique confine observations to latitudes of 65 to 85 degrees in each hemisphere and varying with season. Here, we present the SOFIE observations and discuss its relationship with current levels of solar X-ray irradiance. We will further estimate the change in NO concentration (mixing ratios and densities) for the previous and current solar minimum. The statistics for this change will be presented for northern, equatorial and southern latitudes. We take the period of Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 to represent the current solar minimum between the solar cycles 23 and 24 and the period of Jan - Dec 1996 to

  19. Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

    2016-03-01

    Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are

  20. The Venus atmospheric response to solar cycle variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keating, Gerald M.; Hsu, N. Christina

    1993-01-01

    Atmospheric drag measurements from the orbital decay of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Magellan spacecraft have recently been obtained of the Venus dayside and nightside atmosphere between 130 and 210 km during a period of low solar activity. These new measurements, combined with the earlier Pioneer Venus drag measurements (1978-80) obtained near the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle, have allowed the detection of the detailed response of temperature, atomic oxygen and carbon dioxide to solar variations. We have found a weak but detectable temperature response on the dayside which is in accord with the response predicted by Keating and Bougher when they assumed very strong CO2 radiative cooling resulting from atomic oxygen exciting CO2 into 15 micron emission. This same radiative process may cause strong cooling in the Earth's upper atmosphere with the doubling of CO2 in the future. With decreasing solar activity, the O/CO2 ratio in the lower thermosphere is found to decrease, apparently due to decreased photodissociation of CO2 and lower temperatures. The percent decrease in atomic oxygen with decreasing solar activity on the dayside is found to be approximately the same as the percent decreases of atomic oxygen transported to the nightside. A very weak response of nightside temperatures to solar activity variations has also been detected.

  1. The Venus Atmospheric Response to Solar Cycle Variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keating, Gerald M.; Hsu, N. Christina

    1993-01-01

    Atmospheric drag measurements from the orbital decay of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Magellan spacecraft have recently been obtained of the Venus dayside and nightside atmosphere between 130 and 210 km during a period of low solar activity. These new measurements, combined with the earlier Pioneer Venus drag measurements (1978-80) obtained near the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle, have allowed the detection of the detailed response of temperature, atomic oxygen and carbon dioxide to solar variations. We have found a weak but detectable temperature response on the dayside which is in accord with the response predicted by Keating and Bougher when they assumed very strong CO2 radiative cooling resulting from atomic oxygen exciting CO2 into 15 micron emission. This same radiative process may cause strong cooling in the Earth's upper atmosphere with the doubling of CO2 in the future. With decreasing solar activity, the O/CO2 ratio in the lower thermosphere is found to decrease, apparently due to decreased photodissociation of CO2 and lower temperatures. The percent decrease in atomic oxygen with decreasing solar activity on the dayside is found to be approximately the same as the percent decreases of atomic oxygen transported to the nightside. A very weak response of nightside temperatures to solar activity variations has also been detected.

  2. Solar power satellite life-cycle energy recovery consideration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weingartner, S.; Blumenberg, J.

    The construction, in-orbit installation and maintenance of a solar power satellite (SPS) will demand large amounts of energy. As a minimum requirement for an energy effective power satellite it is asked that this amount of energy be recovered. The energy effectiveness in this sense resulting in a positive net energy balance is a prerequisite for cost-effective power satellite. This paper concentrates on life-cycle energy recovery instead on monetary aspects. The trade-offs between various power generation systems (different types of solar cells, solar dynamic), various construction and installation strategies (using terrestrial or extra-terrestrial resources) and the expected/required lifetime of the SPS are reviewed. The presented work is based on a 2-year study performed at the Technical University of Munich. The study showed that the main energy which is needed to make a solar power satellite a reality is required for the production of the solar power components (up to 65%), especially for the solar cell production. Whereas transport into orbit accounts in the order of 20% and the receiving station on earth (rectenna) requires about 15% of the total energy investment. The energetic amortization time, i.e. the time the SPS has to be operational to give back the amount of energy which was needed for its production installation and operation, is about two years.

  3. Solar power satellite—Life-cycle energy recovery considerations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weingartner, S.; Blumenberg, J.

    1995-05-01

    The construction, in-orbit installation and maintenance of a solar power satellite (SPS) will demand large amounts of energy. As a minimum requirement for an energy effective power satellite it is asked that this amount of energy be recovered. The energy effectiveness in this sense resulting in a positive net energy balance is a prerequisite for a cost-effective power satellite. This paper concentrates on life-cycle energy recovery instead of monetary aspects. The trade-offs between various power generation systems (different types of solar cells, solar dynamic), various construction and installation strategies (using terrestrial or extra-terrestrial resources) and the expected/required lifetime of the SPS are reviewed. The presented work is based on a 2-year study performed at the Technical University of Munich. The study showed that the main energy which is needed to make a solar power satellite a reality is required for the production of the solar power plant components (up to 65%), especially for the solar cell production. Whereas transport into orbit accounts in the order of 20% and the receiving station on Earth (rectenna) requires in the order of 15% of the total energy investment. The energetic amortization time, i.e. the time the SPS has to be operational to give back the amount of energy which was needed for its production, installation and operation, is in the order of two years.

  4. SOLAR WIND HEAVY IONS OVER SOLAR CYCLE 23: ACE/SWICS MEASUREMENTS

    SciTech Connect

    Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

    2013-05-01

    Solar wind plasma and compositional properties reflect the physical properties of the corona and its evolution over time. Studies comparing the previous solar minimum with the most recent, unusual solar minimum indicate that significant environmental changes are occurring globally on the Sun. For example, the magnetic field decreased 30% between the last two solar minima, and the ionic charge states of O have been reported to change toward lower values in the fast wind. In this work, we systematically and comprehensively analyze the compositional changes of the solar wind during cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010 while the Sun moved from solar maximum to solar minimum. We find a systematic change of C, O, Si, and Fe ionic charge states toward lower ionization distributions. We also discuss long-term changes in elemental abundances and show that there is a {approx}50% decrease of heavy ion abundances (He, C, O, Si, and Fe) relative to H as the Sun went from solar maximum to solar minimum. During this time, the relative abundances in the slow wind remain organized by their first ionization potential. We discuss these results and their implications for models of the evolution of the solar atmosphere, and for the identification of the fast and slow wind themselves.

  5. Solar cycle variation of gravity waves observed in OH airglow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelinas, L. J.; Hecht, J. H.; Walterscheid, R. L.; Reid, I. M.; Woithe, J.; Vincent, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    Airglow imaging provides a unique means by which to study many wave-related phenomena in the 80 to 100 km altitude regime. Two-dimensional image observations reveal quasi-monochromatic disturbances associated with atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) as well as small-scale instabilities, often called ripples. Image-averaged temperature and intensity measurements can be used to study the response of the airglow layer to tides and planetary waves, as well as monitor longer-term climatological variations. Here we present results of low and mid-latitude OH airglow observations beginning near solar max of solar cycle 23 and continuing through solar max of cycle 24. Aerospace imagers deployed at Alice Springs (23o42'S, 133o53'E) and Adelaide (34o55'S, 138o36'E) have been operating nearly continuously since ~2001. The imagers employ filters measuring OH Meinel (6, 2) and O2 Atmospheric (0, 1) band emission intensities and temperatures, as well as atmospheric gravity wave parameters. The Aerospace Corporation's Infrared Camera deployed at Maui, HI (20.7N,156.3W), collected more than 700 nights of airglow images from 2002-2005. The camera measures the OH Meinel (4,2) emission at 1.6 um using a 1 second exposure at a 3 second cadence, which allows the study of AGW and ripple features over very short temporal and spatial scales. The camera was relocated to Cerro Pachon, Chile (30.1 S, 70.8 W) and has been operating continuously since 2010. Temperature, intensity and gravity wave climatologies derived from the two Australian airglow imagers span a full solar cycle (solar max to solar max). Emission intensities have been calibrated using background stars, and temperatures have been calibrated with respect to TIMED/SABER temperatures, reducing the influence of instrument degradation on the solar cycle climatology. An automated wave detection algorithm is used to identify quasi monochromatic wave features in the airglow data, including wavelength, wave period and propagation

  6. The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Mitzi

    2013-01-01

    Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

  7. Synoptic Solar Cycle 24 in Corona, Chromosphere, and Photosphere Seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benevolenskaya, E.; Slater, G.; Lemen, J.

    2014-09-01

    The Solar Dynamics Observatory provides multiwavelength imagery from extreme ultraviolet (EUV) to visible light as well as magnetic-field measurements. These data enable us to study the nature of solar activity in different regions of the Sun, from the interior to the corona. For solar-cycle studies, synoptic maps provide a useful way to represent global activity and evolution by extracting a central meridian band from sequences of full-disk images over a full solar Carrington rotation (≈ 27.3 days). We present the global evolution during Solar Cycle 24 from 20 May 2010 to 31 August 2013 (CR 2097 - CR 2140), using synoptic maps constructed from full-disk, line-of-sight magnetic-field imagery and EUV imagery (171 Å, 193 Å, 211 Å, 304 Å, and 335 Å). The synoptic maps have a resolution of 0.1 degree in longitude and steps of 0.001 in sine of latitude. We studied the axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric structures of solar activity using these synoptic maps. To visualize the axisymmetric development of Cycle 24, we generated time-latitude (also called butterfly) images of the solar cycle in all of the wavelengths, by averaging each synoptic map over all longitudes, thus compressing it to a single vertical strip, and then assembling these strips in time order. From these time-latitude images we observe that during the ascending phase of Cycle 24 there is a very good relationship between the integrated magnetic flux and the EUV intensity inside the zone of sunspot activities. We observe a North-South asymmetry of the EUV intensity in high-latitudes. The North-South asymmetry of the emerging magnetic flux developed and resulted in a consequential asymmetry in the timing of the polar magnetic-field reversals.

  8. Solar grand and super-grand cycles derived with PCA from the solar background magnetic field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkova, Valentina; Shepherd, Simon; Zharkov, Sergei; Popova, Elena

    2016-04-01

    We present principal components analysis (PCA) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21-24. These PCs reveal two main magnetic waves with close frequencies (covering 40% of data variance) travelling from the opposite hemispheres with an increasing phase shift. Extrapolation of these PCs through their summary curve backward for 2000 years reveals a number of ~350-year grand cycles and about 2000 super-grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past. The summary curve calculated forward for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 25-27 when the two magnetic field waves have a phase shift of 11 years. We explore a role of other independent components derived with PCA and their expected effects on the resulting summary curve, or solar activity curve. We suggest that these grand and super-grand cycles can be produced by two dynamo waves generated in different layers with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects that is discussed in the work by Popova et al (2016) presented here. This approach opens a new era in investigation and prediction of solar activity on long-term timescales.

  9. Drought over Seoul and Its Association with Solar Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Jong-Hyeok; Chang, Heon-Young

    2013-12-01

    We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI). We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period) may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.

  10. Solar cycle variation of large-scale coronal structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Antonucci, E.; Duvall, T. L.

    1974-01-01

    A green line intensity variation is associated with the interplanetary and photospheric magnetic sector structure. This effect depends on the solar cycle and occurs with the same amplitude in the latitude range 60 deg N - 60 deg S. Extended longitudinal coronal structures are suggested, which indicate the existence of closed magnetic field lines over the neutral line, separating adjacent regions of opposite polarities on the photospheric surface.

  11. Design and fabrication of brayton cycle solar heat receiver

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendelson, I.

    1971-01-01

    A detail design and fabrication of a solar heat receiver using lithium fluoride as the heat storage material was completed. A gas flow analysis was performed to achieve uniform flow distribution within overall pressure drop limitations. Structural analyses and allowable design criteria were developed for anticipated environments such as launch, pressure containment, and thermal cycling. A complete heat receiver assembly was fabricated almost entirely from the refractory alloy, niobium-1% zirconium.

  12. Proton activity of the Sun in current solar cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chuan; Miroshnichenko, Leonty I.; Fang, Cheng

    2015-07-01

    We present a study of seven large solar proton events in the current solar cycle 24 (from 2009 January up to the current date). They were recorded by the GOES spacecraft with the highest proton fluxes being over 200 pfu for energies >10 MeV. In situ particle measurements show that: (1) The profiles of the proton fluxes are highly dependent on the locations of their solar sources, namely flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which confirms the “heliolongitude rules” associated with solar energetic particle fluxes; (2) The solar particle release (SPR) times fall in the decay phase of the flare emission, and are in accordance with the times when the CMEs travel to an average height of 7.9 solar radii; and (3) The time differences between the SPR and the flare peak are also dependent on the locations of the solar active regions. The results tend to support the scenario of proton acceleration by the CME-driven shock, even though there exists a possibility of particle acceleration at the flare site, with subsequent perpendicular diffusion of accelerated particles in the interplanetary magnetic field. We derive the integral time-of-maximum spectra of solar protons in two forms: a single power-law distribution and a power law roll-over with an exponential tail. It is found that the unique ground level enhancement that occurred in the event on 2012 May 17 displays the hardest spectrum and the largest roll-over energy which may explain why this event could extend to relativistic energies. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

  13. The floor in the solar wind: status report

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, E. W.

    2012-07-01

    Cliver & Ling (2010) recently suggested that the solar wind had a floor or ground-state magnetic field strength at Earth of ~2.8 nT and that the source of the field was the slow solar wind. This picture has recently been given impetus by the evidence presented by Schrijver et al. (2011) that the Sun has a minimal magnetic state that was approached globally in 2009, a year in which Earth was imbedded in slow solar wind ~70% of the time. A precursor relation between the solar dipole field strength at solar minimum and the peak sunspot number (SSN MAX ) of the subsequent 11-yr cycle suggests that during Maunder-type minima (when SSN MAX was ~0), the solar polar field strength approaches zero - indicating weak or absent polar coronal holes and an increase to nearly ~100% in the time that Earth spends in slow solar wind.

  14. IS SOLAR CYCLE 24 PRODUCING MORE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS THAN CYCLE 23?

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Y.-M.; Colaninno, R. E-mail: robin.colaninno@nrl.navy.mil

    2014-04-01

    Although sunspot numbers are roughly a factor of two lower in the current cycle than in cycle 23, the rate of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appears to be at least as high in 2011-2013 as during the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, according to three catalogs that list events observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). However, the number of CMEs detected is sensitive to such factors as the image cadence and the tendency (especially by human observers) to under-/overcount small or faint ejections during periods of high/low activity. In contrast to the total number, the total mass of CMEs is determined mainly by larger events. Using the mass measurements of 11,000 CMEs given in the manual CDAW catalog, we find that the mass loss rate remains well correlated with the sunspot number during cycle 24. In the case of the automated CACTus and SEEDS catalogs, the large increase in the number of CMEs during cycle 24 is almost certainly an artifact caused by the near-doubling of the LASCO image cadence after mid-2010. We confirm that fast CMEs undergo a much stronger solar-cycle variation than slow ones, and that the relative frequency of slow and less massive CMEs increases with decreasing sunspot number. We conclude that cycle 24 is not only producing fewer CMEs than cycle 23, but that these ejections also tend to be slower and less massive than those observed one cycle earlier.

  15. Is Solar Cycle 24 Producing More Coronal Mass Ejections Than Cycle 23?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.-M.; Colaninno, R.

    2014-04-01

    Although sunspot numbers are roughly a factor of two lower in the current cycle than in cycle 23, the rate of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appears to be at least as high in 2011-2013 as during the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, according to three catalogs that list events observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). However, the number of CMEs detected is sensitive to such factors as the image cadence and the tendency (especially by human observers) to under-/overcount small or faint ejections during periods of high/low activity. In contrast to the total number, the total mass of CMEs is determined mainly by larger events. Using the mass measurements of 11,000 CMEs given in the manual CDAW catalog, we find that the mass loss rate remains well correlated with the sunspot number during cycle 24. In the case of the automated CACTus and SEEDS catalogs, the large increase in the number of CMEs during cycle 24 is almost certainly an artifact caused by the near-doubling of the LASCO image cadence after mid-2010. We confirm that fast CMEs undergo a much stronger solar-cycle variation than slow ones, and that the relative frequency of slow and less massive CMEs increases with decreasing sunspot number. We conclude that cycle 24 is not only producing fewer CMEs than cycle 23, but that these ejections also tend to be slower and less massive than those observed one cycle earlier.

  16. Developing a Solar Magnetic Catalog Spanning Four Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werginz, Zachary; Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Michael D.; Vargas Acosta, Juan Pablo; Vargas Dominguez, Santiago; Zhang, Jie; Longcope, Dana; Martens, Petrus C.

    2016-05-01

    Bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are the cornerstone of solar cycle propagation, the building blocks that give structure to the solar atmosphere, and the origin of the majority of space weather events. However, in spite of their importance, there is no homogeneous BMR catalog spanning the era of systematic solar magnetic field measurements. Here we present the results of an ongoing project to address this deficiency applying the Bipolar Active Region Detection (BARD) code to magnetograms from the 512 Channel of the Kitt Peak Vaccum Telescope, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI.The BARD code automatically identifies BMRs and tracks them as they are rotated by differential rotation. The output of the automatic detection is supervised by a human observer to correct possible mistakes made by the automatic algorithm (like incorrect pairings and tracking mislabels). Extra passes are made to integrate fragmented regions as well as to balance the flux between BMR polarities. At the moment, our BMR database includes 6,885 unique objects (detected and tracked) belonging to four separate solar cycles (21-24).

  17. Polar Coronal Holes during the Past Solar Cycle: Ulysses Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Steiger, R.; Zurbuchen, T.

    2009-12-01

    During its nearly 19 year mission, Ulysses pioneered novel measurements of the three-dimensional heliosphere and particularly provided the first in situ observations of solar wind from polar coronal holes (PCHs). These PCH-associated solar wind streams show long-term variability in both dynamic and also compositional signatures. Between the polar passages in 1994-95 and in 2007-08, the C and O freeze-in temperatures measured in high-latitude solar wind have decreased by ~15 % and are now around 0.86 MK and 1.0 MK, respectively. Si and Fe ionization states also exhibit a substantial cooling with a reduction of 0.4 and 0.5 charge states on average, respectively. On the other hand, there no significant changes of the elemental composition of the solar wind, as exhibited through the First Ionization Potential fractionation effect, which has remained at f = 1.8±0.3 during both sets of polar passages, i.e., enhanced to the photospheric composition (f = 1). Thus, it appears that the PCH of cycle 23 are cooler overall than those of cycle 22, while their elemental composition has remained unchanged, thus confirming their status as the “ground state” of the solar wind. These observations, together with the observed ~15 % reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field (Smith and Balogh, 2008), and the ~17 % and ~14 % reductions in density and temperature, respectively (McComas et al., 2008), provide a unique test for theories of the solar wind and its composition, in particular for the concept of freezing-in of charge states and of the FIP fractionation effect. We will present results from this analysis of SWICS data and also discuss the scientific implications of these novel results.

  18. On the "Extended" Solar Cycle in Coronal Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robbrecht, E.; Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R., Jr.; Rich, N. B.

    2010-06-01

    Butterfly diagrams (latitude-time plots) of coronal emission show a zone of enhanced brightness that appears near the poles just after solar maximum and migrates toward lower latitudes; a bifurcation seems to occur at sunspot minimum, with one branch continuing to migrate equatorward with the sunspots of the new cycle and the other branch heading back to the poles. The resulting patterns have been likened to those seen in torsional oscillations and have been taken as evidence for an extended solar cycle lasting over ~17 yr. In order to clarify the nature of the overlapping bands of coronal emission, we construct butterfly diagrams from green-line simulations covering the period 1967-2009 and from 19.5 nm and 30.4 nm observations taken with the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope during 1996-2009. As anticipated from earlier studies, we find that the high-latitude enhancements mark the footpoint areas of closed loops with one end rooted outside the evolving boundaries of the polar coronal holes. The strong underlying fields were built up over the declining phase of the cycle through the poleward transport of active-region flux by the surface meridional flow. Rather than being a precursor of the new-cycle sunspot activity zone, the high-latitude emission forms a physically distinct, U-shaped band that curves upward again as active-region fields emerge at midlatitudes and reconnect with the receding polar-hole boundaries. We conclude that the so-called extended cycle in coronal emission is a manifestation not of early new-cycle activity, but of the poleward concentration of old-cycle trailing-polarity flux by meridional flow.

  19. ON THE 'EXTENDED' SOLAR CYCLE IN CORONAL EMISSION

    SciTech Connect

    Robbrecht, E.; Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R.; Rich, N. B. E-mail: yi.wang@nrl.navy.mi E-mail: nathan.rich@nrl.navy.mi

    2010-06-10

    Butterfly diagrams (latitude-time plots) of coronal emission show a zone of enhanced brightness that appears near the poles just after solar maximum and migrates toward lower latitudes; a bifurcation seems to occur at sunspot minimum, with one branch continuing to migrate equatorward with the sunspots of the new cycle and the other branch heading back to the poles. The resulting patterns have been likened to those seen in torsional oscillations and have been taken as evidence for an extended solar cycle lasting over {approx}17 yr. In order to clarify the nature of the overlapping bands of coronal emission, we construct butterfly diagrams from green-line simulations covering the period 1967-2009 and from 19.5 nm and 30.4 nm observations taken with the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope during 1996-2009. As anticipated from earlier studies, we find that the high-latitude enhancements mark the footpoint areas of closed loops with one end rooted outside the evolving boundaries of the polar coronal holes. The strong underlying fields were built up over the declining phase of the cycle through the poleward transport of active-region flux by the surface meridional flow. Rather than being a precursor of the new-cycle sunspot activity zone, the high-latitude emission forms a physically distinct, U-shaped band that curves upward again as active-region fields emerge at midlatitudes and reconnect with the receding polar-hole boundaries. We conclude that the so-called extended cycle in coronal emission is a manifestation not of early new-cycle activity, but of the poleward concentration of old-cycle trailing-polarity flux by meridional flow.

  20. Study of intensive solar flares in the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24 and other activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, S. Prasanna; Shanmugaraju, A.

    2016-02-01

    We present a statistical study and comparison on the properties of intensive solar flares (>M5.0 X-ray flare), decameter-hectometric (DH) wavelength [frequency, 1-14 MHz] type II radio bursts and solar energetic particle (SEP) events during the rising phase of solar cycles 23 and 24. The period of study is May 1996-November 2000 for solar cycle 23 and December 2008-June 2013 for solar cycle 24. Apart from reported weakness of solar cycle 24 compared to the cycle 23, we noted the following differences between the two cycles on the properties of these activities associated with intensive flares: (i) The reduction in the number of intensive flares (>M5.0 class) in cycle 24 is ˜34 %, similar to the reduction in sunspot number reported by Gopalswamy et al. (2014a); (ii) The slightly higher mean starting-frequency (4.15 MHz) and lower ending frequency (0.58 MHz) in cycle 24 compared to those of cycle 23 (2.63 and 0.89 MHz, respectively) indicate that the radio emission of this cycle started closer to the Sun and the CME-shock travelled farther away from the Sun in cycle 24; (iv) Cycle 23 produced a nearly equal number of SEP events as cycle 24 during the rising phase. The correlation between SEP intensity and CME speed is more prominent in cycle 23 (CC=0.7) than in cycle 24 (CC=0.3).

  1. Solar UV Spectral Irradiance Measured by SUSIM During Solar Cycle 22 and 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrill, J. S.; Floyd, L. E.; McMullin, D. R.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding the impact of solar variability on terrestrial climate requires detailed knowledge of both solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and total solar irradiance (TSI). Observations of SSI in the ultraviolet (UV) have been made by various space-based missions since 1978. Of these missions, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) included the Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) experiment which measured the UV SSI from 1991 into 2005. In this talk, we present the UV spectral irradiance observations from SUSIM on UARS during solar cycles 22 and 23 along with results of a recent review of the calibration, stability, and in-flight performance. Another more recent mission is the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite which carries the Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Solar Irradiance Monitor (SIM). Together, the SORCE instruments have measured the UV, Visible, and IR SSI over the period of 2003 to the present. This talk will include a comparison between SUSIM and SORCE during the period of overlapping observations as well as comparisons of UV spectra observed at various times, particularly during the last two solar minima. These comparisons show that the UV observations by SORCE are inconsistent with those measured by SUSIM.

  2. SOLAR-CYCLE VARIATION OF SOUND SPEED NEAR THE SOLAR SURFACE

    SciTech Connect

    Rabello-Soares, M. C.

    2012-02-01

    We present evidence that the sound-speed variation with solar activity has a two-layer configuration, similar to the one observed below an active region, which consists of a negative layer near the solar surface and a positive one in the layer immediately below the first one. Frequency differences between the activity minimum and maximum of solar cycle 23, obtained applying global helioseismology to the Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, is used to determine the sound-speed variation from below the base of the convection zone to a few Mm below the solar surface. We find that the sound speed at solar maximum is smaller than at solar minimum at the limit of our determination (5.5 Mm). The min-to-max difference decreases in absolute values until {approx}7 Mm. At larger depths, the sound speed at solar maximum is larger than at solar minimum and the difference increases with depth until {approx}10 Mm. At this depth, the relative difference ({delta}c{sup 2}/c{sup 2}) is less than half of the value observed at the lowest depth determination. At deeper layers, it slowly decreases with depth until there is no difference between maximum and minimum activity.

  3. Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2012-10-01

    Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

  4. Discrepant responses of the global electron content to the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of EUV irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yiding; Liu, Libo; Le, Huijun; Zhang, Hui

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, the responses of the ionosphere to the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance are comparatively investigated using daily mean global electron content (GEC) and 0.1-50 nm EUV daily flux. GEC is well correlated with EUV on both the solar cycle and solar rotation timescales; however, the responses of GEC to the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of EUV are significantly different in terms of the following two aspects: (1) There is a significant time lag between the solar rotation variations of GEC and EUV; the lag is dominated by a 1-day lag and generally presents a decrease trend with solar activity decreasing. For the solar cycle variations of GEC and EUV, however, there are no evident time lags. (2) The GEC versus EUV slopes are different for the solar cycle and solar rotation variations of GEC and EUV; the solar cycle GEC versus EUV slope is higher than the solar rotation GEC versus EUV slope, and this difference occurs in different seasons and latitudinal bands. The results present an aspect of the difference between ionospheric climatology and weather.

  5. Solar cycle variation of the statistical distribution of the solar wind ɛ parameter and its constituent variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

    2016-06-01

    We use 20 years of Wind solar wind observations to investigate the solar cycle variation of the solar wind driving of the magnetosphere. For the first time, we use generalized quantile-quantile plots to compare the statistical distribution of four commonly used solar wind coupling parameters, Poynting flux, B2, the ɛ parameter, and vB, between the maxima and minima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find the distribution is multicomponent and has the same functional form at all solar cycle phases; the change in distribution is captured by a simple transformation of variables for each component. The ɛ parameter is less sensitive than its constituent variables to changes in the distribution of extreme values between successive solar maxima. The quiet minimum of cycle 23 manifests only in lower extreme values, while cycle 24 was less active across the full distribution range.

  6. Towards better constrained models of the solar magnetic cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

    2010-12-01

    The best tools we have for understanding the origin of solar magnetic variability are kinematic dynamo models. During the last decade, this type of models has seen a continuous evolution and has become increasingly successful at reproducing solar cycle characteristics. The basic ingredients of these models are: the solar differential rotation -- which acts as the main source of energy for the system by shearing the magnetic field; the meridional circulation -- which plays a crucial role in magnetic field transport; the turbulent diffusivity -- which attempts to capture the effect of convective turbulence on the large scale magnetic field; and the poloidal field source -- which closes the cycle by regenerating the poloidal magnetic field. However, most of these ingredients remain poorly constrained which allows one to obtain solar-like solutions by "tuning" the input parameters, leading to controversy regarding which parameter set is more appropriate. In this thesis we revisit each of those ingredients in an attempt to constrain them better by using observational data and theoretical considerations, reducing the amount of free parameters in the model. For the meridional flow and differential rotation we use helioseismic data to constrain free parameters and find that the differential rotation is well determined, but the available data can only constrain the latitudinal dependence of the meridional flow. For the turbulent magnetic diffusivity we show that combining mixing-length theory estimates with magnetic quenching allows us to obtain viable magnetic cycles and that the commonly used diffusivity profiles can be understood as a spatiotemporal average of this process. For the poloidal source we introduce a more realistic way of modeling active region emergence and decay and find that this resolves existing discrepancies between kinematic dynamo models and surface flux transport simulations. We also study the physical mechanisms behind the unusually long minimum of

  7. Sun's Polar Magnetic Field Reversals in Solar Cycle 24

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pishkalo, M. I.; Leiko, U. M.

    It is known that polar magnetic field of the Sun changes its sign at the maximum of solar cycle. These changes were called as polar field reversals. We investigated dynamics of high-latitude solar magnetic fields separately in northern and southern hemispheres. Solar polar field strength measurements from the Wilcox Solar Observatory and low-resolution synoptic magnetic maps from the SOLIS project and from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory were used. We analyzed total magnetic flux at near-polar zones, starting from 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80 and 85 degrees of latitude, and found time points when the total magnetic flux changed its sign. It was concluded that total magnetic flux changed its sign at first at lower latitudes and finally near the poles. Single polar magnetic field reversal was found in the southern hemisphere. The northern hemisphere was characterized by three-fold magnetic field reversal. Polar magnetic field reversals finished in northern and southern hemispheres by CR 2150 and CR 2162, respectively.

  8. On the prospect of using butterfly diagrams to predict cycle minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    Features enabling the prediction of the beginning and the length of a solar cycle, in addition to the turning points in the period-growth dichotomy, have been identified based on butterfly diagrams for the period from 1874 to the present. The present results indicate that cycle 21 will be a long-period cycle ending after July 1987. On the assumption that April 1985 was the first occurrence of high latitude new cycle (cycle 22) spots during the decline of cycle 21 (the old cycle), it is suggested that the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots was September 1983 and that the minimum for cycle 22 will be about 1986.7 + or - 1.1 yr.

  9. A new simple dynamo model for solar activity cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Schmitt, Dieter

    2015-04-01

    The solar magnetic activity cycle has been investigated in an elaborated manner with several types of dynamo models [1]. In most of the current mean-field approaches, the inhomogeneity of the large-scale flow is treated as an essential ingredient in the mean magnetic field equation whereas it is completely neglected in the turbulence equation. In this work, a new simple model for the solar activity cycle is proposed. The present model differs from the previous ones mainly in two points. First, in addition to the helicity coefficient α, we consider a term related to the cross helicity, which represents the effect of the inhomogeneous mean flow, in the turbulent electromotive force [2, 3]. Second, this transport coefficient (γ) is not treated as an adjustable parameter, but the evolution equation for γ is simultaneously solved. The basic scenario for the solar activity cycle in this approach is as follows: The toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation in mediation by the turbulent cross helicity. Then due to the α or helicity effect, the poloidal field is generated from the toroidal field. The poloidal field induced by the α effect produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative cross-helicity production). The cross helicity with this opposite sign induces a reversed toroidal field. Results of the eigenvalue analysis of the model equations are shown, which confirm the above scenario. References [1] Charbonneau, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 7, 3 (2010). [2] Yoshizawa, A. Phys. Fluids B 2, 1589 (1990). [3] Yokoi, N. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 107, 114 (2013).

  10. Solar cycle and diurnal dependence of auroral structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partamies, N.; Whiter, D.; Syrjäsuo, M.; Kauristie, K.

    2014-10-01

    In order to facilitate usage of optical data in space climate studies, we have developed an automated algorithm to quantify the complexity of auroral structures as they appear in ground-based all-sky images. The image analysis is based on a computationally determined "arciness" value, which describes how arc like the auroral structures in the image are. With this new automatic method we have analyzed the type of aurora in about 1 million images of green aurora (λ = 557.7nm) captured at five camera stations in Finnish and Swedish Lapland in 1996-2007. We found that highly arc like structures can be observed in any time sector and their portion of the auroral structures varies much less than the fraction of more complex forms. The diurnal distribution of arciness is in agreement with an earlier study with high arc occurrence rate in the evening hours and steadily decreasing toward the late morning hours. The evolution of less arc-like auroral structures is more dependent on the level of geomagnetic activity and solar cycle than the occurrence of arcs. The median arciness is higher during the years close to the solar minimum than during the rest of the solar cycle. Unlike earlier proposed, the occurrence rate of both arcs and more complex auroral structures increases toward the solar maximum and decreases toward the solar minimum. The cyclic behavior of auroral structures seen in our data is much more systematic and clear than previously reported visual studies suggest. The continuous arciness index describing the complexity of auroral structures can improve our understanding on auroral morphology beyond the few commonly accepted structure classes, such as arcs, patches, and omega bands. Arciness can further be used to study the relationship of auroral structures at different complexity levels and magnetospheric dynamics.