Science.gov

Sample records for 1996-2004 amtslig karkirurgisk

  1. Time-dependent seismic tomography of the Coso geothermal area, 1996-2004

    SciTech Connect

    Julian, B.R.; G.R. Foulger; K. Richards-Dinger; F. Monastero

    2006-04-01

    Local-earthquake tomographic images were calculated for each of the years 1996 - 2004 using arrival times from the U.S. Navy’s permanent seismometer network at the Coso geothermal area, California. The results show irregular strengthening with time of the wave-speed ratio VP/VS at shallow depths. These changes result predominately from progressive relative increase in VS with respect to VP, and could result from processes associated with geothermal operations such as decrease in fluid pressure and the drying of argillaceous minerals such as illite.

  2. Titan's 2 micron Surface Albedo and Haze Optical Depth in 1996-2004

    SciTech Connect

    Gibbard, S; de Pater, I; Macintosh, B; Roe, H; Max, C; Young, E; McKay, C

    2004-05-04

    We observed Titan in 1996-2004 with high-resolution 2 {micro}m speckle and adaptive optics imaging at the W.M. Keck Observatory. By observing in a 2 {micro}m broadband filter we obtain images that have contributions from both Titan's surface and atmosphere. We have modeled Titan's atmosphere using a plane-parallel radiative transfer code that has been corrected to agree with 3-D Monte Carlo predictions. We find that Titan's surface albedo ranges from {le} 0:02 in the darkest equatorial region of the trailing hemisphere to {approx_equal} 0:1 in the brightest areas of the leading hemisphere. Over the past quarter of a Saturnian year haze optical depth in Titan's Southern hemisphere has decreased substantially from a value of 0.48 in 1996 down to 0.18 in 2004, while the northern haze has been increasing over the past few years. As a result of these changes, in 2004 the North/South haze asymmetry at K' band has disappeared.

  3. The Impact of Increased Tax Subsidies on the Insurance Coverage of Self-Employed Families: Evidence from the 1996-2004 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Selden, Thomas M.

    2009-01-01

    The share of health insurance premiums that self-employed workers can deduct when computing federal income taxes rose from 30 percent in 1996 to 100 percent in 2003. Data from the 1996-2004 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey are used to show that the increased tax subsidy was associated with substantial increases in private coverage among…

  4. The asymmetry in sunspot area and magnetic flux variations in 1996-2004 extracted from the Solar Feature Catalogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharkov, S. I.; Zharkova, V. V.

    2004-12-01

    This research utilizes a searchable Solar Feature Catalogue (SFC) for sunspots created from the SOHO/MDI full disk whitelight images and magnetograms in 1996-2004 using the automated pattern recognition techniques http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/. A comparison of sunspot areas from the SFC with the averaged sunspot numbers published in the Sunspot Index Data Centre (SIDC) verified the detected sunspots with their correlation with sunspots areas on agiven day that revealed a very good detection accuracy of 86% for the whole period 1996-2003. The latitudinal (N-S) and longitudinal variations of sunspot areas, a total and resulting, or excess, magnetic flux are presented for the whole period of observations. The total sunspot areas measured from a single solar image have shown to have a strong Northern-Southern asymmetry that reveals the similar trend in the cumulative sunspot areas. At the start of the cycle from 1996 until 1999 the Northern hemisphere area trails the Southern one then followed by a bigger increase of the areas in the Northern hemisphere. The excess magnetic flux confined in sunspots also shows a significant N-S asymmetry being mostly negative in the Southern hemisphere and positive in the Northern one. However, towards the solar minimum in 1996 and in 2003-4 the excess flux becomes positive in the Southern and negative in the Northern hemispheres. These variations of total and excess magnetic fluxes during the solar cycle are compared with a few solar dynamo models.

  5. 1996-2004 Trends in the Single-Family Housing Market: Spatial Analysis of the Residential Sector

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Dave M.; Elliott, Douglas B.

    2006-09-05

    This report provides a detailed geographic analysis of two specific topics affecting the residential sector. First, we performed an analysis of new construction market trends using annual building permit data. We report summarized tables and national maps to help illustrate market conditions. Second, we performed a detailed geographic analysis of the housing finance market. We analyzed mortgage application data to provide citable statistics and detailed geographic summarization of the residential housing picture in the US for each year in the 1996-2004 period. The databases were linked to geographic information system tools to provide various map series detailing the results geographically. Looking at these results geographically may suggest potential new markets for TD programs addressing the residential sector that have not been considered previously. For example, we show which lenders affect which regions and which income or mortgage product classes. These results also highlight the issue of housing affordability. Energy efficiency R&D programs focused on developing new technology for the residential sector must be conscious of the costs of products resulting from research that will eventually impact the home owner or new home buyer. Results indicate that home values as a proportion of median family income in Building America communities are closely aligned with the national average of home value as a proportion of median income. Other key findings: • The share of home building and home buying activity continues to rise steadily in the Hot-Dry and Hot-Humid climate zones, while the Mixed-Humid and Cold climate zone shares continue to decline. Other zones remain relatively stable in terms of share of housing activity. • The proportion of home buyers having three times the median family income for their geography has been steadily increasing during the study period. • Growth in the Hispanic/Latino population and to a lesser degree in the Asian population has

  6. Time-dependent seismic tomography of the Coso geothermal area, 1996-2004

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Foulger, G.R.

    2005-01-01

    The permanent 18-station network of three-component digital seismometers at the seismically active Coso geothermal area, California, provides high-quality microearthquake (MEQ) data that are well suited to investigating temporal variations in structure related to processes within the geothermal reservoir. A preliminary study [Julian, et al., 2003; Julian, et al., 2004] comparing data from 1996 and 2003 found significant variations in the ratio of the seismic wave-speeds, Vp/Vs, at shallow depths over this time interval. This report describes results of a more detailed study of each year from 1996 through 2004.

  7. Knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and practices in Lebanon concerning HIV/AIDS, 1996-2004.

    PubMed

    Kahhaleh, J G; El Nakib, M; Jurjus, A R

    2009-01-01

    This cross-sectional study, aimed at evaluating the impact of HIV prevention interventions in Lebanon since 1996, was performed between January 2004 and July 2004 on 3200 Lebanese aged 15-49 years. Of the sexually active respondents, 13.0% of men and 2.6% of women had regular partners other than the spouse but only 25.0% used a condom in their last sexual intercourse. However, 16.8% had sex with casual partners and 71.7% of those used a condom. Knowledge about preventive practices against HIV/AIDS has regressed since 1996, 85.7% compared to 94.9%. Self reports of symptoms suggestive of sexually transmitted disease were 9.1% compared to 5.6% in 1996. PMID:20187544

  8. Discourses on menopause--Part I: Menopause described in texts addressed to Danish women 1996-2004.

    PubMed

    Hvas, Lotte; Gannik, Dorte Effersøe

    2008-04-01

    To understand Danish women's very different ways of interpreting menopausal experiences and the way they construct meaning relating to menopause, it is necessary to include the context in which meaning is constructed as well as the background of cultural attitudes to menopause existing in the Danish society. Using documentary material, the aim of this article was to describe different discourses on menopause in Denmark that present themselves to menopausal women, and to discuss how these discourses may affect women's identity and constitute their scope of action. One hundred and thirty-two pieces of text under the heading or subject of 'menopause' or 'becoming a middle-aged woman', published from 1996 to 2004, were included. All material was addressed to Danish women, and consisted of booklets and informational material, articles from newspapers and magazines and popular science books. Seven different discourses on menopause were identified: the biomedical discourse; the 'eternal youth' discourse; the health-promotion discourse; the consumer discourse; the alternative discourse; the feminist/critical discourse; and the existential discourse. The biomedical discourse on menopause was found to be dominant, but was expanded or challenged by other discourses by offering different scopes of action and/or resting on different fundamental values. The discourses constructed and positioned individual women differently; thus, the women's position varied noticeably from one discourse to another. Depending on the discourse drawn upon, the woman's position could be that of a passive patient or that of an empowered woman, capable of making her own choices in relation to her health. PMID:18400827

  9. Volcano-tectonic deformation at Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes, northern California, from GPS: 1996-2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lisowski, M.; Poland, M.; Dzurisin, D.; Owen, S.

    2004-12-01

    Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes are two of the three Cascade volcanoes targeted for dense GPS and strainmeter deployments by the magmatic systems component of Earthscope's Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO). Leveling surveys indicate an average subsidence rate of ˜9 mm/yr at Medicine Lake volcano since at least 1954, which could result from draining of a magma reservoir, cooling/crystallization of a subsurface body of magma or hot rock, loading by the volcano and dense intrusions, crustal thinning due to regional extension, or some combination of these mechanisms. Displacements from GPS surveys in 1996 and 1999 revealed regional block rotation and contraction across the summit of the volcano, but the time interval was too short to distinguish between possible mechanisms. On Mount Shasta, a 21-line, 12-km aperture EDM network was measured in 1981, 1982, and 1984 with no significant deformation detected, nor was there significant length change in three EDM lines recovered with GPS in 2000. We present results from GPS surveys completed in June and July 2004 of the region surrounding both Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes. We find regional deformation to be dominated by a block rotation about a pole in southeast Oregon, similar to but generally south of poles determined by other workers using GPS in western Oregon and Washington. No significant residual deformation remains in the four GPS stations located on Mount Shasta, which were previously measured in 2000. In contrast, GPS results from six stations on the upper flanks of Medicine Lake volcano confirm the known subsidence and are consistent with elastic half-space models of volume loss that fit the leveling data. No significant residual regional strain was detected. As a result, we believe that subsidence at Medicine Lake does not likely result from crustal thinning due to regional extension. A more detailed examination of Medicine Lake subsidence sources, Mount Shasta edifice deformation, and possible local and regional temporal deformation changes will be available after installation of continuous GPS stations and strainmeters by the Plate Boundary Observatory. In addition, we have begun annual microgravity measurements that in the future should help to distinguish between possible deformation mechanisms for Medicine Lake volcano.

  10. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVIII: Survival and Transportation Effects of Migrating Snake River Wild Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates From 1996-2004 and Comparison to Hatchery Results. Draft.

    SciTech Connect

    Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Skalski, John R.; Broms, Kristin

    2008-12-03

    The combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged wild salmonids migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) were analyzed using the ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine) statistical release-recapture model. This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER, was used to estimate survival on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged wild spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam from 1996 to 2004. In addition, annual results from wild salmonids were compared with results from hatchery salmonids, which were presented in a previous report in this series (Buchanan, R. A., Skalski, J. R., Lady, J. L., Westhagen, P., Griswold, J., and Smith, S. 2007, 'Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003', Technical report, Bonneville Power Administration, Project 1991-051-00). These results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite to Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on a dam-specific basis for release years with sufficient numbers of wild PIT-tagged smolts transported. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 1,000 tagged wild smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few wild Chinook salmon and steelhead tagged upstream of Lower Granite Dam were transported before the 2003 release year, T/I and D were estimated only for the 2003 and 2004 release years. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Spring and summer Chinook salmon release groups were pooled across the entire Snake River Basin upstream of Lower Granite Dam for this report. Annual estimates of SAR from Lower Granite back to Lower Granite averaged 0.92% with an estimated standard error (dSE) of 0.25% for wild spring and summer Chinook salmon for tagged groups released from 1996 through 2004, omitting age-1-ocean (jack) returns. Only for the 1999 and 2000 release years did the wild Chinook SAR approach the target value of 2%, identified by the NPCC as the minimum SAR necessary for recovery. Annual estimates of SAR for wild steelhead from the Snake River Basin averaged 0.63% (dSE = 0.15%), including age-1-ocean returns, for release years 1996 through 2004. For release years when the ocean return probability from Bonneville back to Bonneville could be estimated (i.e., 1999 through 2004), it was estimated that on average approximately 83% of the total integrated mortality for nontransported, tagged wild spring and summer Chinook, and 78% for steelhead (omitting the 2001 release year), occurred during the ocean life stage (i.e., from Bonneville to Bonneville). This suggests that additional monitoring and research efforts should include the ocean and estuary environment. Annual estimates of the dam-specific T/I for Lower Granite Dam were available for the 2003 and 2004 release years for both wild Chinook salmon and wild steelhead. The estimated T/I for Lower Granite was significantly > 1.0 for Chinook in 2004 (P < 0.0001) and for steelhead in both 2003 (P < 0.0001) and 2004 (P < 0.0001), indicating that for these release years, wild fish transported at Lower Granite returned there in higher proportions than fish that were returned to the river at Lower Granite, or that passed Lower Granite without detection as juveniles. Annual estimates of the dam-specific T/I for Little Goose Dam were available for wild Chinook salmon for both 2003 and 2004. The estimated T/I for Little Goose was significantly > 1.0 for wild Chinook in 2004 (P = 0.0024), but not in 2003 (P = 0.1554). Differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) is the ratio of pos

  11. Death of Reference or Birth of a New Marketing Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henry, Jo

    2011-01-01

    Reference transactions in academic libraries have been on the decline since mid-1990. The Academic Library Survey from the National Center for Education Statistics shows an average drop of 25% in reference use from 1996-2004 with higher numbers at some institutions such as the University of Maryland which plummeted 47% (Martell, 2008). The…

  12. A Population-Based Study of Juvenile Perpetrators of Homicide in England and Wales

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodway, Cathryn; Norrington-Moore, Victoria; While, David; Hunt, Isabelle M.; Flynn, Sandra; Swinson, Nicola; Roscoe, Alison; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to describe the social, behavioural and offence characteristics of all convicted perpetrators of homicide aged 17 and under; to examine their previous contact with mental health services, and to discuss strategies for homicide prevention. An eight-year (1996-2004) sample of 363 juvenile homicide perpetrators in England and Wales…

  13. Editorial: Looking to the Future of Hydrologic Engineering

    EPA Science Inventory

    Being one of the more recent journals of the American Society of Civil Engineers, the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (JHE) has made significant strides under the forward-thinking leadership of previous editors (M. Levent Kavvas 1996-2004, and V. P. Singh, 2004-2012) si...

  14. Charged Particles in Earth's Magnetosphere during Storm and Quiet time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forster, D. R.; Grande, M.; Perry, C. H.; Davies, J. A.

    2009-04-01

    Ionic number density, taken by the Magnetospheric Ion Composition Spectrometer (MICS) instrument on the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES), are used to investigate the behaviour of singly charged Oxygen and Helium ions, and also Alpha Particles, while under both quiet and storm-time conditions during a Solar Maximum Period. Number density data are plotted against Invariant Latitude and Local time. The results of this investigation show clearly an enhancement of all species during periods of highly negative DST, and are in agreement with previous work (Grande et al, 1996, 2004).

  15. The Impact of Race and Ethnicity, Immigration, and Political Context on Participation in American Electoral Politics

    PubMed Central

    Logan, John R.; Darrah, Jennifer; Oh, Sookhee

    2013-01-01

    This study uses national survey data in federal election years during 1996-2004 to examine voter registration and voting. It shows that racial/ethnic disparities in socio-economic resources and rootedness in the community do not explain overall group differences in electoral participation. It contradicts the expectation from an assimilation perspective that low levels of Latino participation are partly attributable to the large share of immigrants among Latinos. In fact net differences show higher average Latino participation than previously reported. The study focuses especially on contextual factors that could affect collective responses of group members. Moving beyond past research, significant effects are found for the group's representation among office holders, voting regulations, and state policies related to treatment of immigrants. PMID:24339453

  16. [Changes of reproduction habitat quality of red-crowned crane in Zhalong wetlands].

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhi-qiang; Fu, Jian-chun; Quan, Bin; Zhang, Dong-shui; Wang, Fang

    2010-11-01

    Based on the maps of habitat factors in Zhalong wetlands in 1996 and 2004, two models called habitat suitability index model and nearest neighbor analysis model were established to quantitatively analyze the changes of reproduction habitat quality of red-crowned crane in Zhalong wetlands. The results showed that in 1996-2004, the suitable reproduction habitats of red-crowned crane in the wetlands experienced both area loss and functional loss. By the end of 2004, the suitable habitats in the study area lost greatly, and those in core area undergone serious fragmentation. Consequently, the habitat-selection behaviors of red-crowned crane responded in two ways: one was the centralization of nests towards core area, and the other was the spatial distribution pattern changed from uniform to aggregative. PMID:21361012

  17. The Impact of Race and Ethnicity, Immigration, and Political Context on Participation in American Electoral Politics.

    PubMed

    Logan, John R; Darrah, Jennifer; Oh, Sookhee

    2012-01-01

    This study uses national survey data in federal election years during 1996-2004 to examine voter registration and voting. It shows that racial/ethnic disparities in socio-economic resources and rootedness in the community do not explain overall group differences in electoral participation. It contradicts the expectation from an assimilation perspective that low levels of Latino participation are partly attributable to the large share of immigrants among Latinos. In fact net differences show higher average Latino participation than previously reported. The study focuses especially on contextual factors that could affect collective responses of group members. Moving beyond past research, significant effects are found for the group's representation among office holders, voting regulations, and state policies related to treatment of immigrants. PMID:24339453

  18. Response of sulfate concentration and isotope composition in Icelandic rivers to the decline in global atmospheric SO{sub 2} emissions into the North Atlantic region

    SciTech Connect

    Sigurdur Reynir Gislason; Peter Torssander

    2006-02-01

    This study presents the changes in dissolved sulfate concentration and isotope composition of Icelandic river waters between the peak of SO{sub 2} emissions in the United States and Europe and the present. Chloride concentration in Icelandic rivers has not changed much since 1972. The overall average change from 1972-1973 to 1996-2004 was -3%, indicating insignificant sea-salt contribution changes. More than 99% of the river-dissolved sulfur was in the form of sulfate. There are three main sources for dissolved sulfate in the rivers: rocks, sea-salts, and anthropogenic. Total dissolved sulfate, {sub td}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, and non-sea-salt sulfate, {sub nss}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, decreased in all of the rivers from the early 1970s to 1996-2004. The percentage decrease varies from 13% to 65%. The decrease is smallest in rivers were there is considerable rock-derived dissolved SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}. The overall average decrease was 39% for {sub td}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} and 46% for {sub nss}SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}. The anthropogenic sulfate fraction has declined making most of the river waters {delta}{sup 34}S values of sulfate higher through time. The overall decline in river sulfate and increase in {delta}{sup 34}S, while SO{sub 2} emissions from Iceland has been increasing, demonstrates the response of river chemistry in the remote North Atlantic to the decline in man-made emissions of SO{sub 2} in North America and Europe. 43 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Analysis of UV Satellite and Ground Observed data for Sardinia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cervone, Guido; Manca, Germana; Johnson, Kathleen

    Ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the 280 to 400 nanometers range has been found to be one of the primary cause for skin cancer. The correlation between UV radiation and skin cancer prevention is of global concern. Satellite observations from Nimbus7 (1978-1993), EarthProbe (1996-2004) and OMI/AURA (2004-present) provide long term UV time-series that can be used to study and compute the risk associated with exposure to harmful radiation. Additionally, several ground installations exist to acquire UV radiation data that can be paired with satellite observations. The current work presents the data mining analysis of UV time series from 1978 to present for the Italian region of Sardinia. Satellite observations are paired with ground measurements to provide historical averages of UV radiation, and daily maps of current exposure. A Geographical Information System (GIS) is used to fuse UV data with ground characteristics. The use of GIS is fundamental to calculate the real value of UV on the ground. It is known that the incidence of solar radiation, and consequently of UV, is modified by topography and surface features. Topography plays a important rule, because it is a major factor that determines the spatial variability of insulation and UV being a part of direct insulation. variation in elevation orientation (slope and aspect), and shadow cast by topographical features, determine the UV insulation in a given area or point.

  20. Meat consumption, animal products, and the risk of bladder cancer: a case-control study in Uruguayan men.

    PubMed

    Ronco, Alvaro Luis; Mendilaharsu, Maria; Boffetta, Paolo; Deneo-Pellegrini, Hugo; De Stefani, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    In the time period 1996-2004, all incident cases of bladder cancer were included in a case-control study in order to study the role of meat consumption and product animals in the etiology of urothelial cancer. The study included 225 cases and 1,510 hospitalized controls with non-neoplastic conditions, not related to smoking and alcohol drinking. Relative risks, approximated by the odds ratios, were calculated in order to clarify the effect of meat consumption in the etiology of urothelial cancer. Total meat consumption (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.02-2.11), total processed meat (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.08-2.27), frankfurters (hot dogs) (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.28-3.21), ham (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.21-2.67) and salted meat (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.78-4.18) were positively associated with risk of bladder cancer. Animal products, like cheese, whole milk, and total eggs were also associated with bladder cancer risk (OR for eggs 4.05, 95% CI 2.68-6.12). In conclusion, total meat, processed meat, and eggs could play an important role in the etiology of bladder cancer in Uruguay. PMID:25081704

  1. Integrating enhanced hepatitis C testing and counselling in research.

    PubMed

    Winter, Rebecca; Nguyen, Oanh; Higgs, Peter; Armstrong, Stuart; Duong, Duyen; Thach, My Li; Aitken, Campbell; Hellard, Margaret

    2008-02-01

    The hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects over 170 million people worldwide. In Australia, over 225,000 people have been diagnosed with HCV infection with 13,000 infections reported annually; 90% are attributed to injecting drug use. Burnet Institute (BI) researchers have been studying the HCV epidemic since the virus was identified in 1989 including community based cohort studies (1990-1995), numerous studies involving Vietnamese-Australian people who inject drugs (PWID) (1996-2004) and social network studies (2000-2002, 2005-2007). Through this work the BI has developed a model of research practice for HCV and PWID, developed in recognition that much research relating to BBV infections - and HCV in particular - could be improved in terms of provision of test results to study participants. Our model endeavours to provide all participants with the highest quality HCV test results, delivered in accordance with best practice for pre- and post-test counselling by engaging participants in environments in which they are comfortable, building trust and rapport and being available throughout and beyond the research study. This paper will discuss the benefits and lessons learned over numerous studies in providing pre- and post-test counselling to PWID in an outreach capacity. PMID:18312821

  2. Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, Row Crops and their Relationship to Nitrate in Eastern Iowa Rivers

    PubMed Central

    Weldon, Mark B.; Hornbuckle, Keri C.

    2009-01-01

    Concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFO) and fertilizer application to row crops may contribute to poor water quality in surface waters. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated nutrient concentrations and fluxes in four Eastern Iowa watersheds sampled between 1996-2004. We found that these watersheds contribute nearly 10% of annual nitrate flux entering the Gulf of Mexico, while representing only 1.5% of the contributing drainage basin. Mass budget analysis shows stream flow to be a major loss of nitrogen (18% of total N output), second only to crop harvest (63%). The major watershed inputs of nitrogen include applied fertilizer for corn (54% of total N input) and nitrogen fixation by soybeans (26%). Despite the relatively small input from animal manure (~5%), the results of spatial analysis indicate that row crop and CAFO densities are significantly and independently correlated to higher nitrate concentration in streams. Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.59 and 0.89 were found between nitrate concentration and row crop and CAFO density, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis produced a correlation for nitrate concentration with an R2 value of 85%. High spatial density of row crops and CAFOs are linked to the highest river nitrate concentrations (up to 15 mg/l normalized over five years). PMID:16749677

  3. The influence of preoperative use of ventricular assist devices on survival after heart transplantation: propensity score matched analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hur, Kwan; Gibbons, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine the influence of the preoperative placement of a left ventricular assist device on survival after heart transplantation. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Organ sharing database with patient level data on heart transplants in the United States. Participants 2786 adults aged 18 or older in status 1A or 1B (highest priority for heart transplantation with either some form of ventricular assist device, intravenous inotrope, or life expectancy of less than seven days), based on the United Network for Organ Sharing Registry, 1996-2004. Main outcome measure Survival after heart transplantation in patients who did and did not receive a left ventricular assist device. Results The left ventricular assist device was not associated with decreased survival, even after the data were stratified by propensity score (the odds of being a treated patient). Inspection of the strata showed no difference in survival between patients who received the device and those who did not. The hazard ratios in strata 1 to 5 were 0.69, 1.37, 1.55, 0.75, and 1.19, respectively, and none was statistically significant. Conclusion Overall, survival after heart transplantation in patients who received a left ventricular assist device before transplantation was comparable to those who did not receive the device. PMID:20147346

  4. Increase in tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over China observed from space.

    PubMed

    Richter, Andreas; Burrows, John P; Nüss, Hendrik; Granier, Claire; Niemeier, Ulrike

    2005-09-01

    Emissions from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning reduce local air quality and affect global tropospheric chemistry. Nitrogen oxides are emitted by all combustion processes and play a key part in the photochemically induced catalytic production of ozone, which results in summer smog and has increased levels of tropospheric ozone globally. Release of nitrogen oxide also results in nitric acid deposition, and--at least locally--increases radiative forcing effects due to the absorption of downward propagating visible light. Nitrogen oxide concentrations in many industrialized countries are expected to decrease, but rapid economic development has the potential to increase significantly the emissions of nitrogen oxides in parts of Asia. Here we present the tropospheric column amounts of nitrogen dioxide retrieved from two satellite instruments GOME and SCIAMACHY over the years 1996-2004. We find substantial reductions in nitrogen dioxide concentrations over some areas of Europe and the USA, but a highly significant increase of about 50 per cent-with an accelerating trend in annual growth rate-over the industrial areas of China, more than recent bottom-up inventories suggest. PMID:16136141

  5. Dietary benzo[a]pyrene, alcohol drinking, and risk of breast cancer: a case-control study in Uruguay.

    PubMed

    Ronco, Alvaro L; De Stefani, Eduardo; Correa, Pelayo; Deneo-Pellegrini, Hugo; Boffetta, Paolo; Acosta, Gisele; Mendilaharsu, Maria

    2011-01-01

    In order to determine to the effect of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) on breast cancer risk we conducted a case-control study in the time period 1996-2004. The study included 1,098 participants (460 cases and 638 controls). All the patients were drawn from the four major hospitals in Montevideo, Uruguay. Statistical analysis was performed using unconditional multiple logistic regression and the models included age, residence, urban/rural status, education, monthly income, body mass index, menopausal status, age at menarche, parity, smoking index, alcohol drinking, mate consumption, total energy, total vegetables and fruits, and BaP intake. The highest vs. the lowest quartile of BaP intake (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.3) was significantly associated with breast cancer risk. Alcohol drinking was also directly associated with breast cancer risk (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.19-2.23) and the joint effect of BaP and alcohol drinking showed an elevated risk of the disease (OR 3.32, 95% CI 2.17-5.06). The present study suggests that elevated consumption of BaP could play an important role in the etiology of breast cancer. This effect is enhanced by the intake of alcohol. PMID:22126482

  6. Riparian vegetation, Colorado River, and climate: Five decades of spatiotemporal dynamics in the Grand Canyon with river regulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sankey, Joel B.; Ralston, Barbara E.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Cagney, Laura E.

    2015-08-01

    Documentation of the interacting effects of river regulation and climate on riparian vegetation has typically been limited to small segments of rivers or focused on individual plant species. We examine spatiotemporal variability in riparian vegetation for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon relative to river regulation and climate, over the five decades since completion of the upstream Glen Canyon Dam in 1963. Long-term changes along this highly modified, large segment of the river provide insights for management of similar riparian ecosystems around the world. We analyze vegetation extent based on maps and imagery from eight dates between 1965 and 2009, coupled with the instantaneous hydrograph for the entire period. Analysis confirms a net increase in vegetated area since completion of the dam. Magnitude and timing of such vegetation changes are river stage-dependent. Vegetation expansion is coincident with inundation frequency changes and is unlikely to occur for time periods when inundation frequency exceeds approximately 5%. Vegetation expansion at lower zones of the riparian area is greater during the periods with lower peak and higher base flows, while vegetation at higher zones couples with precipitation patterns and decreases during drought. Short pulses of high flow, such as the controlled floods of the Colorado River in 1996, 2004, and 2008, do not keep vegetation from expanding onto bare sand habitat. Management intended to promote resilience of riparian vegetation must contend with communities that are sensitive to the interacting effects of altered flood regimes and water availability from river and precipitation.

  7. Comparative hepatitis A seroepidemiology in 10 European countries.

    PubMed

    Kurkela, S; Pebody, R; Kafatos, G; Andrews, N; Barbara, C; Bruzzone, B; Butur, D; Caplinskas, S; Davidkin, I; Hatzakis, A; Hellenbrand, W; Hesketh, L M; Nardone, A; Nemecek, V; Pistol, A; Sobotová, Z; Vranckx, R; Anastassopoulou, C G

    2012-12-01

    The WHO recommends hepatitis A virus (HAV) immunization according to level of transmission and disease burden. We aimed to identify susceptible age groups by standardized serosurveys to inform HAV vaccination policy in participating countries: Belgium, Czech Republic, England, Finland, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, Romania, and Slovakia. Each country tested national serum banks (n = 1854-6748), collected during 1996-2004, for anti-HAV antibodies. Local laboratory results were standardized to common units. Forty-one per cent of those aged <30 years and 6% of those aged ≥30 years were susceptible to HAV in Romania; compared to 70-94% and 26-71%, respectively, elsewhere. Romania reported high HAV incidence in children and young adults. Other countries reported HAV disease primarily in older risk groups. The results suggest low level of HAV transmission in most of Europe. Romania, however, appeared as an area with intermediate transmission. Vaccination of risk groups in countries with high susceptibility of young and middle-aged adults needs to be continued. PMID:22273572

  8. [Principles and criteria used by the National Evaluation Committee of Research Activity (CNEAI-Spain) for the assessment of scientific publications: 1989-2009].

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Pérez, Rafael; Delgado López-Cózar, Emilio; Jiménez-Contreras, Evaristo

    2010-11-01

    Study of the origins, philosophy and history of the criteria used to assess research activities in Spain by the CNEAI. The assessment criteria and quality evidence of publications is discussed. Results are presented on the temporal development of the criteria used, grouped by publication type (articles and books) and fields of knowledge. Between 1989-1996, assessment was based on the definition and goals set by the Spanish scientific framework and on general criteria. Between 1996-2004, the formulation of indicators began to be almost exclusively based on Journal Citation Reports (JCR). Success rates up to 2004 indicate that the evaluation criteria and publishing behaviour matched the "hard sciences", but not the Social Sciences and Economics. In 2005, the criteria used were further developed and reoriented with an eye to softening the preceding JCR-centrism by taking into consideration other databases and defining the quality criteria to be met by journals, books and conferences not included in JCR. Correspondingly, the success rates for 2007 indicate a dramatic recovery in Economics. In the last 4 years, Humanities and Social Sciences have consolidated the further opening of the criteria used with the addition of new benchmarks and the full integration of books. PMID:21044530

  9. Black carbon particles in the urban atmosphere in Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gengchen; Bai, Jianhui; Kong, Qinxin; Emilenko, Alexander

    2005-09-01

    A study of the concentration of black carbon particles and its variation in the urban atmosphere has been carried out since 1996 in the Beijing area. The measurements were done in the late autumn and early winter each year, the period before and after domestic heating activities begin. The results show the presence of black carbon particles at the high level that vary over a large range in the urban atmosphere in Beijing. The mean value of daily average concentration for the whole observation period of 1996 2004 is 20.0 μg m-3. An evident decrease of black carbon particle concentration in the Beijing area is observed after 2000, and the daily average concentration of black carbon particles is estimated to be 16.0 μg m-3 with a variation range of 2.10 50.50 μg m-3 for the period of 2000 2004. The observation method and main variation behavior characteristics of black carbon particles in the urban atmosphere in the Beijing area are given and discussed.

  10. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, J.; Sargsyan, K.; Huang, M.; Hou, Z.

    2012-12-01

    We present results from a calibration effort of the Community Land Model (CLM) using surrogates. Three parameters, governing subsurface runoff and groundwater dynamics, were targeted and calibrated to observations from the Missouri Ozark Ameriflux tower site (US-Moz) spanning 1996-2004. We adopt a Bayesian approach for calibration where the parameters were estimated as probability distributions to account for the uncertainty due to modelling and observation errors. The model fitting was performed using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Since the sampling-based calibration of CLM could be computationally expensive, we first developed surrogates as alternatives to the CLM. The three-dimensional parameter space was sampled and CLM was used to produce monthly averaged predictions of runoff and latent/sensible heat fluxes. Multiple polynomial "trend" models were proposed, fitted to the CLM simulations via regression, and tested for over-fitting. A quadratic model was ultimately selected and bias-corrected using the universal kriging approach, to produce surrogates with errors less than 10% at any arbitrary point in the parameter-space. This "trend+kriged" model was then used as an inexpensive CLM surrogate, in an MCMC sampler, to solve the calibration problem. Joint densities were developed for the parameters, along with an estimate of the structural error of the surrogates.

  11. Geomorphic response of sandbars to the March 2008 high-flow experiment on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grams, Paul E.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Schmidt, John C.; Kaplinski, Matt; Wright, Scott A.; Topping, David J.; Melis, Theodore S.

    2010-01-01

    The completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 drastically altered the downstream flow regime and resulted in more than a 90 percent reduction of sand supply to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Sandbars that were maintained by annual floods and a large sediment supply are now fewer in number and smaller in area and volume. Efforts to maintain sandbars in the current era of dam management utilize controlled floods timed to occur during brief periods of sediment enrichment that result from tributary floods. Repeat surveys of 22 sandbars made before and after controlled floods conducted in 1996, 2004, and 2008 document changes in sandbar volume; and repeat surveys at more than 100 sites document changes in sandbar elevation and morphology for the 2008 event. Each of the controlled floods resulted in sandbar deposition that was followed by erosion in the 6-month post-flood period. Erosion rates are positively correlated with post-flood dam release volumes and negatively correlated with post-flood tributary sediment supply volume. October 2008 sandbar volume was similar or larger than sandbar volume in February 1996, before the first of the three controlled floods. Deposition during the 2008 controlled flood was also associated with increases in the quantity of backwater habitat, which is used by native and non-native fish.

  12. Riparian vegetation, Colorado River, and climate: five decades of spatiotemporal dynamics in the Grand Canyon with river regulation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sankey, Joel B.; Ralston, Barbara; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Cagney, Laura E.

    2015-01-01

    Documentation of the interacting effects of river regulation and climate on riparian vegetation has typically been limited to small segments of rivers or focused on individual plant species. We examine spatiotemporal variability in riparian vegetation for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon relative to river regulation and climate, over the five decades since completion of the upstream Glen Canyon Dam in 1963. Long-term changes along this highly modified, large segment of the river provide insights for management of similar riparian ecosystems around the world. We analyze vegetation extent based on maps and imagery from eight dates between 1965 and 2009, coupled with the instantaneous hydrograph for the entire period. Analysis confirms a net increase in vegetated area since completion of the dam. Magnitude and timing of such vegetation changes are river stage-dependent. Vegetation expansion is coincident with inundation frequency changes and is unlikely to occur for time periods when inundation frequency exceeds approximately 5%. Vegetation expansion at lower zones of the riparian area is greater during the periods with lower peak and higher base flows, while vegetation at higher zones couples with precipitation patterns and decreases during drought. Short pulses of high flow, such as the controlled floods of the Colorado River in 1996, 2004, and 2008, do not keep vegetation from expanding onto bare sand habitat. Management intended to promote resilience of riparian vegetation must contend with communities that are sensitive to the interacting effects of altered flood regimes and water availability from river and precipitation.

  13. Evidence for an Evolving Cyclotron Line Energy in 4U 1538-522

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britton Hemphill, Paul; Rothschild, Richard E.; Fuerst, Felix; Grinberg, Victoria; Klochkov, Dmitry; Kretschmar, Peter; Pottschmidt, Katja; Staubert, Rüdiger; Wilms, Joern

    2016-04-01

    In this talk, I present results from a comprehensive analysis of the existing RXTE, INTEGRAL, and Suzaku data for the high-mass X-ray binary 4U 1538-522. This persistent X-ray pulsar has a clearly-detected cyclotron resonance scattering feature (CRSF), which appears to have increased in energy over the past decade, from approximately 20-21 keV as measured by RXTE in 1996-2004 to ~22-23 keV as found in the 2012 Suzaku observation. This spectral feature is the only direct measurement of the neutron star's magnetic field strength, and its behavior can be used to track the conditions in the accretion mound near the neutron star surface. Our analysis finds that the increased CRSF energy is especially prominent in spectra from the peak of the main pulse, which suggests that the physical origin of this shift in energy may be restricted to a single magnetic pole, possibly indicating some reconfiguration of the structure of the accretion mound not reflected in the other spectral parameters. I will discuss the analysis and some implications of this result, especially in the context of work by Staubert et al. (2015, A&A 572, 119), which unveiled a secular trend in the CRSF energy of the prototypical CRSF source, Hercules X-1.

  14. Fall Chinook Salmon Spawning Ground Surveys in the Snake River Basin Upriver of Lower Granite Dam, 2004 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, A.P.; Bradbury, S.; Arnsberg, B.D.; Rocklage, S.J.; Groves, P.A.

    2005-10-01

    Redd counts were used to document the spawning distribution of fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Snake River basin upriver of Lower Granite Dam. The first reported redd counts were from aerial searches conducted intermittently between 1959 and 1978 (Irving and Bjornn 1981, Witty 1988; Groves and Chandler 1996)(Appendix 1). In 1986, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife began an annual monitoring program that, in addition to the Snake River, included aerial searches of the Grande Ronde River the first year (Seidel and Bugert 1987), and the Imnaha River in subsequent years (Seidel et al. 1988; Bugert et al. 1989-1991; Mendel et al. 1992). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Idaho Power Company began contributing to this effort in 1991 by increasing the number of aerial searches conducted each year and adding underwater searches in areas of the Snake River that were too deep to be searched from the air (Connor et al. 1993; Garcia et al. 1994a, 1994b, 1996-2004; Groves 1993; Groves and Chandler 1996). The Nez Perce Tribe added aerial searches in the Clearwater River basin beginning in 1988 (Arnsberg et. al 1992), and the Salmon River beginning in 1992. Currently searches are conducted cooperatively by the Nez Perce Tribe, Idaho Power Company, and U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Our objective for this report was to consolidate the findings from annual redd searches into a single document, containing detailed information about the searches from the most recent spawning season, and summary information from previous years. The work conducted in 2004 was funded by the Bonneville Power Administration, Idaho Power Company, and Bureau of Land Management.

  15. A Bayesian back-calculation method to estimate the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada during the period 1996-2011.

    PubMed

    Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Oraby, Tamer; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Seventeen typical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) were detected in Canada the period of 2003-2011. The clinical incidence of BSE was censored by early slaughter, death, or exportation of infected cattle due to the long incubation period of BSE disease. The aim of this study was to estimate the infection incidence of BSE in birth cohorts during 1996-2004 and project infection frequency through to 2007. An estimate of the number of asymptomatic infected cattle slaughtered for human consumption is also provided. The number of incident, asymptomatic cases was assumed to follow a Poisson process. A Bayesian back-calculation approach was used to project the risk of contracting BSE in those birth cohorts. Model parameters and inputs were taken from scientific literature and governmental data sources. The projected number of infected cattle in birth cohorts spanning the period 1996-2007 was 492, with median 95% credible interval 258-830. If the requirement to remove specified risk material (SRM) from cattle prior to entering the food chain was not in place, the predicted number of slaughtered infected in the human food chain from 1996-2010 was 298, with a 95% credible interval 156-500. The magnitude of the BSE epidemic in Canada for 1996-2007 birth cohorts was estimated to be approximately 28-fold higher than the number of clinical cases detected through to October 2011. Although some of those cattle were slaughtered for human consumption, the requirement of SRM removal may have prevented most of the infectious material from entering the food chain. PMID:27556564

  16. Occupational lyssavirus risks and post-vaccination monitoring.

    PubMed

    Brookes, S M; Fooks, A R

    2006-01-01

    In the UK, rabies pre-exposure vaccination involves a 3-dose course (DO, 7 & 28) and reinforcing doses at a 2-3 year intervals. This booster schedule had been implemented following scientific evidence indicating that a reduction in the previous regime interval of 3-5 years was warranted. The regime changes were particularly relevant to high risk groups that may encounter rabies virus. Those at known high risk of exposure to rabies and other Lyssaviruses include laboratory staff and a diverse group of animal handlers. Since the detection of EBLV-2 in the UK in four Daubenton's bats between 1996-2004 and a human case in 2002, those who now come into contact with bats are also considered at risk. Prior to 2002, data indicated that less than 50 % (n = 193) of all bat handlers had been vaccinated against rabies and 25 % of this group had exceeded the recommended booster interval. Following the human fatality, the vaccine became free to all UK bat handlers and all licensed and the majority of unlicensed bat handlers were vaccinated. Vaccinated laboratory workers are serologically monitored and boosted following a blood test of < 1.0 IU/ml of neutralising antibodies (FAVN-CVS). An analysis of laboratory staff (n = 25) indicated that 28 % (n = 7) maintained a suitable antibody level for greater than 5 years after their final boost, but 16 % (n = 4) had a titre of 1.0 IU/ml for < 12 months. Of the 25 individuals, 70 % required a booster in 2.5 years. In 2002, internal VLA policy was amended to increase antibody monitoring from 2 to 4 times per annum and to insist that all laboratory workers maintained a RABV titre of > 5.0 IU/ml for those in contact with non-RABV lyssaviruses in order to ensure that all individuals had antibody levels capable of neutralising the phylogroup I lyssaviruses. PMID:16878474

  17. Using drift nets to capture early life stages and monitor spawning of the yangtze river chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wei, Q.W.; Kynard, B.; Yang, D.G.; Chen, X.H.; Du, H.; Shen, L.; Zhang, H.

    2009-01-01

    A sampling system for capturing sturgeon eggs using a D-shaped bottom anchored drift net was used to capture early life stages (ELS) of Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis, and monitor annual spawning success at Yichang on the Yangtze River, 1996-2004, before and just after the Three Gorges Dam began operation. Captured were 96 875 ELS (early life stages: eggs, yolk-sac larvae = eleuthero embryos, and larvae); most were eggs and only 2477 were yolk-sac larvae. Most ELS were captured in the main river channel and inside the bend at the Yichang spawning reach. Yolk-sac larvae were captured for a maximum of 3 days after hatching began, indicating quick dispersal downstream. The back-calculated day of egg fertilization over the eight years indicated a maximum spawning window of 23 days (20 October-10 November). Spawning in all years was restricted temporally, occurred mostly at night and during one or two spawning periods, each lasting several days. The brief temporal spawning window may reduce egg predation by opportunistic predators by flooding the river bottom with millions of eggs. During 1996-2002, the percentage of fertilized eggs in an annual 20-egg sample was between 63.5 to 94.1%; however, in 2003 the percentage fertilized was only 23.8%. This sudden decline may be related to the altered environmental conditions at Yichang caused by operation of the Three Gorges Dam. Further studies are needed to monitor spawning and changes in egg fertilization in this threatened population. ?? 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  18. Models of the Jovian Ring and Comparisions With Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juhasz, A.; Horanyi, M.

    2008-12-01

    A number of in situ and remote sensing observations of the Jovian ring system exist so we can now combine observations from Voyager, Pioneer, Galileo and Cassini, as well as ground based and HST measurements. In this presentation we will compare this large body of observations to available theoretical models of the dust dynamics in the Jovian ring. Common to all models (Burns et al., 1985, 2001 ; Horanyi et al.,1996, 2004) is the basic idea that dust is being continuously produced due to micro-meteoroid bombardment of the moons in this region. Also, the spatial distribution of dust in the halo region inward of the main ring is generally accepted to be a consequence of electrodynamic perturbations acting on small charged dust particles. However, in the suggested theoretical models the time scale for orbital evolution is drastically differ. Burns et al. argues, that in the main ring, dust particles evolve inward very slowly due to Poynting-Robertson drag. A typical micron sized grain is predicted to orbit Jupiter for 104 years before crashing into the atmosphere of Jupiter. Horanyi et al. argues that the radial transport is due to resonant charge variations, dictated by the plasma density distribution. In this model grains are transported on a time scale that is orders of magnitude shorter than predicted by PR drag. Here we use both of these models to generate brightness distributions and predict optical depth distributions for same geometries and wavelengths as that of the observations. Quantitative comparisons of the modeled and the real observations lead us to the conclusion that the dust transport in ring/halo region at Jupiter is mainly due to resonant charge variation.

  19. The influence of solar wind variability on magnetospheric ULF wave power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pokhotelov, D.; Rae, I. J.; Murphy, K. R.; Mann, I. R.

    2015-06-01

    Magnetospheric ultra-low frequency (ULF) oscillations in the Pc 4-5 frequency range play an important role in the dynamics of Earth's radiation belts, both by enhancing the radial diffusion through incoherent interactions and through the coherent drift-resonant interactions with trapped radiation belt electrons. The statistical distributions of magnetospheric ULF wave power are known to be strongly dependent on solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation. Statistical characterisation of ULF wave power in the magnetosphere traditionally relies on average solar wind-IMF conditions over a specific time period. In this brief report, we perform an alternative characterisation of the solar wind influence on magnetospheric ULF wave activity through the characterisation of the solar wind driver by its variability using the standard deviation of solar wind parameters rather than a simple time average. We present a statistical study of nearly one solar cycle (1996-2004) of geosynchronous observations of magnetic ULF wave power and find that there is significant variation in ULF wave powers as a function of the dynamic properties of the solar wind. In particular, we find that the variability in IMF vector, rather than variabilities in other parameters (solar wind density, bulk velocity and ion temperature), plays the strongest role in controlling geosynchronous ULF power. We conclude that, although time-averaged bulk properties of the solar wind are a key factor in driving ULF powers in the magnetosphere, the solar wind variability can be an important contributor as well. This highlights the potential importance of including solar wind variability especially in studies of ULF wave dynamics in order to assess the efficiency of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling.

  20. Temporal trend and source apportionment of water pollution in different functional zones of Qiantang River, China.

    PubMed

    Su, Shiliang; Li, Dan; Zhang, Qi; Xiao, Rui; Huang, Fang; Wu, Jiaping

    2011-02-01

    The increasingly serious river water pollution in developing countries poses great threat to environmental health and human welfare. The assignment of river function to specific uses, known as zoning, is a useful tool to reveal variations of water environmental adaptability to human impact. Therefore, characterizing the temporal trend and identifying responsible pollution sources in different functional zones could greatly improve our knowledge about human impacts on the river water environment. The aim of this study is to obtain a deeper understanding of temporal trends and sources of water pollution in different functional zones with a case study of the Qiantang River, China. Measurement data were obtained and pretreated for 13 variables from 41 monitoring sites in four categories of functional zones during the period 1996-2004. An exploratory approach, which combines smoothing and non-parametric statistical tests, was applied to characterize trends of four significant parameters (permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, total cadmium and fluoride) accounting for differences among different functional zones identified by discriminant analysis. Aided by GIS, yearly pollution index (PI) for each monitoring site was further mapped to compare the within-group variations in temporal dynamics for different functional zones. Rotated principal component analysis and receptor model (absolute principle component score-multiple linear regression, APCS-MLR) revealed that potential pollution sources and their corresponding contributions varied among the four functional zones. Variations of APCS values for each site of one functional zone as well as their annual average values highlighted the uncertainties associated with cross space-time effects in source apportionment. All these results reinforce the notion that the concept of zoning should be taken seriously in water pollution control. Being applicable to other rivers, the framework of management-oriented source apportionment

  1. ROSSI X-RAY TIMING EXPLORER OBSERVATIONS OF THE LOW-MASS X-RAY BINARY 4U 1608-522 IN THE UPPER-BANANA STATE

    SciTech Connect

    Takahashi, Hiromitsu; Sakurai, Soki; Makishima, Kazuo

    2011-09-01

    To investigate the physics of mass accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars (NSs), 95 archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer data sets of an atoll source 4U 1608-522, acquired over 1996-2004 in the so-called upper-banana state, were analyzed. The object meantime exhibited 3-30 keV luminosity in the range of {approx}< 10{sup 35}-4 x 10{sup 37} erg s{sup -1}, assuming a distance of 3.6 kpc. The 3-30 keV Proportional Counter Array spectra, produced one from each data set, were represented successfully with a combination of a soft and a hard component, the presence of which was revealed in a model-independent manner by studying spectral variations among the observations. The soft component is expressed by the so-called multi-color disk model with a temperature of {approx}1.8 keV, and is attributed to the emission from an optically thick standard accretion disk. The hard component is a blackbody (BB) emission with a temperature of {approx}2.7 keV, thought to be emitted from the NS surface. As the total luminosity increases, a continuous decrease is observed in the ratio of the BB luminosity to that of the disk component. This property suggests that it gradually becomes difficult for the matter flowing through the accretion disk to reach the NS surface, presumably forming outflows driven by the increased radiation pressure. On timescales of hours to days, the overall source variability was found to be controlled by two independent variables: the mass accretion rate and the innermost disk radius, which changes both physically and artificially.

  2. On the turnaround of stratospheric ozone trends deduced from the reevaluated Umkehr record of Arosa, Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanis, P.; Maillard, E.; Staehelin, J.; Zerefos, C.; Kosmidis, E.; Tourpali, K.; Wohltmann, I.

    2006-11-01

    In this work, we investigate the issue of the turnaround in ozone trends of the recently homogenized Umkehr ozone record of Arosa, Switzerland, which is the longest Umkehr data set, extending from 1956 to date, using different statistical methods. All methods show statistically significant negative ozone trends from 1970 to 1995 in the upper stratosphere (above 32.6 km) throughout the course of the year as well as in the lower stratosphere (below 23.5 km) mainly during winter to spring, which can be partially attributed to dynamical changes. Over the recent period (1996-2004) the year-round trends in the lower stratosphere become positive and are more positive during the winter to spring period. The results also show changes in upper stratospheric ozone trends after 1996, which are, however, not statistically significant at 95% if aerosol correction is applied on the retrieved data. This lack of significant trend changes during the recent period in the upper stratosphere is regionally coherent with recent results derived from upper stratospheric ozone data recorded by lidars, microwave radiometers, and satellite instruments at an adjacent location. Although the positive change in trends after 1996 both for upper and lower stratospheric ozone is in line with the reduction of the emissions of ozone-depleting substances from the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, we recommend, because of lack of significance for the upper stratospheric trends, repeating this analysis in a few years in order to overcome ambiguous results for documentation of the turnaround of upper stratospheric ozone.

  3. GARS O'Higgins as a core station for geodesy in Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klügel, Thomas; Diedrich, Erhard; Falk, Reinhard; Hessels, Uwe; Höppner, Kathrin; Kühmstedt, Elke; Metzig, Robert; Plötz, Christian; Reinhold, Andreas; Schüler, Torben; Wojdziak, Reiner

    2014-05-01

    The German Antarctic Receiving Station GARS O'Higgins at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula is a dual purpose facility for Earth observation since more than 20 years. It serves as a satellite ground station for payload data downlink and telecommanding of remote sensing satellites as well as a geodetic observatory for global reference frames and global change. Both applications use the same 9m diameter radio telescope. For space geodesy and astrometry the radio telescope significantly improves the coverage on the southern hemisphere and plays an essential role within the global Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) network. In particular the determination of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) and the sky coverage of the International Celectial Reference Frame (ICRF) benefit from the location at high southern latitude. Further geodetic instrumentation includes different permanent GNSS receivers (since 1995), two SAR corner reflectors (since 2013) and in the past a PRARE system (1996 - 2004). In addition absolute gravity measurements were performed in 1997 and 2011. All geodetic reference points are tied together by a local survey network. The various geodetic instrumentation and the long time series at O'Higgins allow a reliable determination of crustal motions. VLBI station velocities, continuous GNSS time series and absolute gravity measurements consistently document an uplift rate of about 5 mm/a. A pressure gauge and a radar tide gauge being refererenced to space by a GNSS antenna on top allow the measurement of sea level changes independently from crustal motions, and the determination of the ellipsoidal height of the sea surface, which is, the geoid height plus the mean dynamic topography. The outstanding location on the Antarctic continent makes GARS O'Higgins also in future attractive for polar orbiting satellite missions and an essential station for the global VLBI network. Future plans envisage a development towards an observatory for

  4. Strategies for Monitoring Outcomes in HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children in the United Kingdom.

    PubMed

    Thorne, Claire; Tookey, Pat

    2016-01-01

    Surveillance of pregnancies in women living with HIV is carried out on a national basis in the United Kingdom (UK) through the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood. There are currently around 1100-1200 HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants born every year in the UK, where vertical transmission of HIV now occurs in fewer than 5 in every 1000 pregnancies. By the end of 2014, there was a cumulative total of more than 15,000 HEU children with any combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) exposure and more than 5000 with cART exposure from conception in the UK. HEU infants are increasingly being exposed to newer antiretroviral drugs for which less is known regarding both short- and long-term safety. In this commentary, we describe the approaches that have been taken to explore health outcomes in HEU children born in the UK. This includes the Children exposed to AntiRetroviral Therapy (CHART) Study, which was a consented follow-up study carried out in 2002-2005 of HEU children born in 1996-2004. The CHART Study showed that 4% of HEU children enrolled had a major health or development problem in early childhood; this was within expected UK norms, but the study was limited by small numbers and short-term follow-up. However, the problems with recruitment and retention that were encountered within the CHART Study demonstrated that comprehensive, clinic-based follow-up was not a feasible approach for long-term assessment of HEU children in the UK. We describe an alternative approach developed to monitor some aspects of their long-term health, involving the "flagging" of HEU infants for death and cancer registration with the UK Office for National Statistics. Some of the ethical concerns regarding investigation of long-term outcomes of in utero and perinatal exposure to antiretrovirals, including those relating to consent and confidentiality, are also discussed. PMID:27242792

  5. Observation and modeling of the impact of forestry and CO2 fertilization on the carbon cycle in the Upper Midwest, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desai, A. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Bolstad, P. V.; Davis, K. J.

    2006-05-01

    Forest management is known to be a significant factor in explaining the observed land carbon sink, but improvement is needed in modeling and evaluating its effect on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). We applied the Ecosystem Demography (ED) dynamic vegetation model in a forested landscape to test the roles of forestry and CO2 on NEE. The model has multiple plant types, multi-layer canopy structure, stand age variability, disturbance, land use change and management. ED was tuned to observations from the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study including ecological measurements, forest inventory and records of land cover and use, meteorology and CO2. Model NEE was highly correlated on monthly and annual timescales to 7 yrs of NEE observed at a 396-m tall eddy covariance (EC) tower and to 2 yrs of growing season NEE from 13 stand-scale EC sites of varying cover and age. Jun-Aug NEE was biased high for the tall tower and mature hardwood sites, and correlation to ecosystem respiration at some sites was poor. Exclusion of forestry led to overestimation of plant biomass accumulation by 109% between two inventory cycles (1996-2004), an error smaller than exclusion of natural disturbance and reproduction (171%), but larger than neglecting interannual climate variability (38%). On the long-term (200 yrs), forestry significantly altered ecosystem cover and age and increased NEE by 32%. The increase was due to a shift toward rapidly growing species in younger stands and export of biomass leading to lower respiration and soil carbon input. CO2 fertilization increased NEE by 93% due to a doubling of plant density. While harvest and afforestation had smaller impacts on NEE than CO2 increase, they were still significant and cannot be neglected when making future NEE predictions. Lack of decision-based management, forest product lifecycle tracking and downregulation of CO2 assimilation in ED and other models require further investigation and future refinement.

  6. MCMC-Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model for the US-ARM site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Z.; Ray, J.; Huang, M.

    2013-12-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model (CLM) for the US-ARM site. After parameter screening, three most identifiable parameters governing subsurface runoff and groundwater dynamics were chosen for calibration using observations from 1996-2004. The parameters were estimated as probability density functions, which can quantify the uncertainty in the parameter estimates due to limited observations, non-unique relationships between unknown parameters and observable variables, and short-comings of CLM itself. The probability density function for the three parameters was developed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, driving surrogates of the CLM. The three-dimensional parameter space was sampled and CLM numerical simulator was used to simulate runoff and latent/sensible heat fluxes for each of the parameter combinations. Surrogate models were then constructed for each month by fitting polynomial trend models to the CLM simulations as a function of the three parameters. The polynomial trend is not sufficiently accurate and the discrepancy between the trend and CLM predictions was spanned by a multivariate Gaussian field. Thus the surrogates are regression-kriged models with a polynomial trend. The surrogates are then used as forward models and integrated with an adaptive MCMC-Bayesian inversion method to estimate the parameters. The monthly errors (combination of measurement and CLM's structural errors) were modeled as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Gaussians with an unknown variance, which was also estimated in the calibration process. Calibrations are done at the US-ARM site, and compared to results at another flux tower site, US-MOz. This also demonstrates the applicability of the calibration approach for different field conditions. The calibrated parameters can significantly improve the CLM predictions during the testing periods. Reduced parameter dimensionality and use of surrogates help make the

  7. Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer Observations of the Low-mass X-ray Binary 4U 1608-522 in the Upper-banana State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Hiromitsu; Sakurai, Soki; Makishima, Kazuo

    2011-09-01

    To investigate the physics of mass accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars (NSs), 95 archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer data sets of an atoll source 4U 1608-522, acquired over 1996-2004 in the so-called upper-banana state, were analyzed. The object meantime exhibited 3-30 keV luminosity in the range of <~ 1035-4 × 1037 erg s-1, assuming a distance of 3.6 kpc. The 3-30 keV Proportional Counter Array spectra, produced one from each data set, were represented successfully with a combination of a soft and a hard component, the presence of which was revealed in a model-independent manner by studying spectral variations among the observations. The soft component is expressed by the so-called multi-color disk model with a temperature of ~1.8 keV, and is attributed to the emission from an optically thick standard accretion disk. The hard component is a blackbody (BB) emission with a temperature of ~2.7 keV, thought to be emitted from the NS surface. As the total luminosity increases, a continuous decrease is observed in the ratio of the BB luminosity to that of the disk component. This property suggests that it gradually becomes difficult for the matter flowing through the accretion disk to reach the NS surface, presumably forming outflows driven by the increased radiation pressure. On timescales of hours to days, the overall source variability was found to be controlled by two independent variables: the mass accretion rate and the innermost disk radius, which changes both physically and artificially.

  8. Understanding epidemiological transition in India

    PubMed Central

    Yadav, Suryakant; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam

    2014-01-01

    Background Omran's theory explains changing disease patterns over time predominantly from infectious to chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). India's epidemiological transition is characterized by dual burden of diseases. Kumar addressed low mortality and high morbidity in Kerala, which seems also to be true for India as a country in the current demographic scenario. Methods NSS data (1986–1987, 1995–1996, 2004) and aggregated data on causes of death provided by Registrar General India (RGI) were used to examine the structural changes in morbidity and causes of death. A zero-inflated poisson (ZIP) regression model and a beta-binomial model were used to corroborate the mounting age pattern of morbidity. Measures, namely the 25th and 75th percentiles of age-at-death and modal age-at-death, were used to examine the advances in mortality transition. Objective This study addressed the advances in epidemiological transition via exploring the structural changes in pattern of diseases and progress in mortality transition. Results The burden of NCDs has been increasing in old age without replacing the burden of communicable diseases. The manifold rise of chronic diseases in recent decades justifies the death toll and is responsible for transformation in the age pattern of morbidity. Over time, deaths have been concentrated near the modal age-at-death. Modal age-at-death increased linearly by 5 years for females (r2=0.9515) and males (r2=0.9020). Significant increase in modal age-at-death ascertained the dominance of old age mortality over the childhood/adult age mortality. Conclusions India experiences a dual burden of diseases associated with a remarkable transformation in the age pattern of morbidity and mortality, contemporaneous with structural changes in disease patterns. Continued progress in the pattern of diseases and mortality transition, accompanied by a linear rise in ex, unravels a compelling variation in advances found so far in epidemiological

  9. Unnatural deaths among children in the Transkei region of South Africa.

    PubMed

    Meel, B L

    2008-07-01

    Nearly 99% of the 10.9 million children worldwide under the age of five years who died in 2000 were from developing countries. This amounts to at least 29,000 deaths per day (UNICEF, 2005). This study aims to trace the pattern of unnatural deaths in the Transkei region of South Africa. It is a records review of the medico-legal autopsies carried out between 1996 and 2004 at Umtata General Hospital (UGH). All subjects aged 18 years or below were considered as children. Between 1996-2004, 7,303 unnatural deaths were recorded. Of these, 1,449 (19.8%) were children. Trauma accounted for 1,028 (70.9%) child deaths and 421 (29.1%) were deaths related to other causes such as hanging, burns, lightning strike, drowning, gas suffocation, falls from a height and poisoning. Motor vehicle accidents accounted for 469 (45.6%) deaths and homicides for 553 (54.4%) deaths. The homicides were firearms injuries, 196 (19%), stab wounds, 185 (18%), and blunt trauma, 178 (17.3%). Non-traumatic deaths were hanging, 81 (19.2%), drowning, 166 (39.4%), lightning strike, 38 (9%), burns, 51 (12.1%), gas suffocation, 24 (5.7%), poisoning, 33 (8.4%) and falls from a height 28 (6.7%). There is a high risk of unnatural death among children in the area of Mthatha. It threatens the survival of young children in this region of South Africa. Poverty is an underlying cause for these preventable deaths. PMID:18754210

  10. Postdam evolution of aeolian landscapes in the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Draut, A. E.; Collins, B. D.; Fairley, H. C.; Rubin, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    floods” (1160 m3/s), which occurred in 1996, 2004, and 2008. Dune fields downwind and within 100 m of controlled-flood sandbars tend to have higher sand-transport rates, more open sand, and less biologic soil crust than relict dune fields. They also generally have less vegetation, although vegetation has increased in some dune fields of each type over the study interval (2003 to present). We anticipate that, if current dam operations (with occasional sediment-rich 1160 m3/s flows) continue, greater differences in sand mobility, open sand area, biologic soil crust, and vegetation will develop between modern- and relict-sediment-sourced aeolian landscapes.

  11. Use of the AGNPS model to assess impacts of development and best management practices in an urban watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    A Geographical Information System (GIS) is an invaluable tool in the estimation of land use changes and spatial variability in urban areas. (Non-Point Source (NPS) models provide hypothetical opportunities to assess impacts which storm water management strategies and land use changes have on watersheds by predicting loadings on a watershed scale. This study establishes a methodology for analyzing land use changes and management associated with them by utilizing a GIS analysis of impervious surfaces and AGricultural Non- Point Source (AGNPS) modeling. The GIS analysis of Total Impervious Area (TIA) was used to quantify increases in development and provided land use data for use in AGNPS modeling in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. AGNPS modeling was executed in several different scenarios to predict changes in NPS loadings associated with increases in TIA and its subsequent management in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. Data editing, creation and extracting was completed using ArcView (3.2) GeoMedia (6) GIS systems. The GIS analysis quantified the increase in urbanization via TIA within the Bluebonnet Swamp Watershed (BSW) in East Baton Rouge Parish (EBRP), Louisiana. The BSW had significant increases in urbanization in the 8 year time span of 1996 2004 causing and increase in quantity and decrease in quality of subsequent runoff. Datasets made available from the GIS analysis included TIA and the change in percentage from 1996 to 2004. This information is fundamental for the AGNPS model because it was used to calculate TIA percentages within each AGNPS cell. A 30 year daily climate file was used to execute AGNPS in different land use and storm water management scenarios within the 1100 acre BSW. Runoff qualities and quantities were then compared for different periods of 1996 and 2004. Predictions of sediment, erosion and runoff were compared according by scenario year. Management practices were also simulated by changing the Runoff

  12. Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) Generated by Corotating Interaction Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, I. G.; Webb, D. F.; Zhang, J.; Berdichevsky, B. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Kasper, J. C.; Kataoka, R.; Steinberg, J. T.; Thompson, B. J.; Wu, C.-C.; Zhukov, A. N.

    2006-01-01

    Seventy-nine major geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) observed in 1996 to 2004 were the focus of a Living with a Star Coordinated Data-Analysis Workshop (CDAW) in March, 2005. In 9 cases, the storm driver appears to have been purely a corotating interaction region (CIR) without any contribution from coronal mass ejection-related material (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs). These storms were generated by structures within CIRs located both before and/or after the stream interface that included persistently southward magnetic fields for intervals of several hours. We compare their geomagnetic effects with those of 159 CIRs observed during 1996 - 2005. The major storms form the extreme tail of a continuous distribution of CIR geoeffectiveness which peaks at Dst approx. -40 nT but is subject to a prominent seasonal variation of - 40 nT which is ordered by the spring and fall equinoxes and the solar wind magnetic field direction towards or away from the Sun. The O'Brien and McPherron [2000] equations, which estimate Dst by integrating the incident solar wind electric field and incorporating a ring current loss term, largely account for the variation in storm size. They tend to underestimate the size of the larger CIR-associated storms by Dst approx. 20 nT. This suggests that injection into the ring current may be more efficient than expected in such storms. Four of the nine major storms in 1996 - 2004 occurred during a period of less than three solar rotations in September - November, 2002, also the time of maximum mean IMF and solar magnetic field intensity during the current solar cycle. The maximum CIR-storm strength found in our sample of events, plus additional 23 probable CIR-associated Dst less than or equal to -100 nT storms in 1972 - 1995, is (Dst = -161 nT). This is consistent with the maximum storm strength (Dst approx. -180 nT) expected from the O'Brien and McPherron equations for the typical range of solar wind

  13. Fire history and fire-climate relationships in upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margolis, Ellis Quinn

    Fire history and fire-climate relationships of upper elevation forests of the southwestern United States are imperative for informing management decisions in the face of increased crown fire occurrence and climate change. I used dendroecological techniques to reconstruct fires and stand-replacing fire patch size in the Madrean Sky Islands and Mogollon Plateau. Reconstructed patch size (1685-1904) was compared with contemporary patch size (1996-2004). Reconstructed fires at three sites had stand-replacing patches totaling > 500 ha. No historical stand-replacing fire patches were evident in the mixed conifer/aspen forests of the Sky Islands. Maximum stand-replacing fire patch size of modern fires (1129 ha) was greater than that reconstructed from aspen (286 ha) and spruce-fir (521 ha). Undated spruce-fir patches may be evidence of larger (>2000ha) stand-replacing fire patches. To provide climatological context for fire history I used correlation and regionalization analyses to document spatial and temporal variability in climate regions, and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) teleconnections using 273 tree-ring chronologies (1732-1979). Four regions were determined by common variability in annual ring width. The component score time series replicate spatial variability in 20th century droughts (e.g., 1950's) and pluvials (e.g., 1910's). Two regions were significantly correlated with instrumental SOI and AMO, and three with PDO. Sub-regions within the southwestern U.S. varied geographically between the instrumental (1900-1979) and the pre-instrumental periods (1732-1899). Mapped correlations between ENSO, PDO and AMO, and tree-ring indices illustrate detailed sub-regional variability in the teleconnections. I analyzed climate teleconnections, and fire-climate relationships of historical upper elevation fires from 16 sites in 8 mountain ranges. I tested for links between Palmer

  14. Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Falconer, David; Moore, Ron; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

  15. The effects of national and international HIV/AIDS funding and governance mechanisms on the development of civil-society responses to HIV/AIDS in East and Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Kevin J; Birdsall, Karen

    2010-01-01

    The study takes stock of the exponential growth in the number of new civil-society organisations (CSOs) working in the HIV/AIDS field in East and Southern Africa during the period 1996-2004. We researched this development through a survey of 439 CSOs in six countries and case studies focused on the evolution of community responses to HIV/AIDS in specific communities in eight countries. We describe the types of CSOs that emerged, their relationships with governments and donors, and their activities, organisational characteristics and funding requirements. The data presented show that the vision of social mobilisation of HIV/AIDS responses through community-level organisations has faced strong external challenges. Evidence from survey data, national HIV/AIDS spending assessments and case studies shows that in some respects the changing international aid environment undermines the prospects for development of the civil-society sector's contributions in HIV/AIDS responses. Of particular interest is to understand how the "Three Ones" and the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness have reshaped international funding for HIV/AIDS responses. There has been relatively little attention paid to the impact of the new management and funding modalities--including national performance frameworks, general budget support, joint funding arrangements and basket funds--on civil-society agencies at the forefront of community HIV/AIDS responses. Evidence is presented to show that in important respects the new modalities limit the unique contribution that CSOs can make to national HIV/AIDS responses. It is also shown that the drive to rapidly intensify the scale of HIV/AIDS responses has involved using community organisations as service providers for externally formulated programmes. We discuss this as a strong threat to the development of sustainable civil-society economies as well as to CSOs' diversity and responsiveness. The ways in which CSOs are responding to these challenges are

  16. Recombinant adeno-associated virus-mediated gene transfer for the potential therapy of adenosine deaminase-deficient severe combined immune deficiency.

    PubMed

    Silver, Jared N; Elder, Melissa; Conlon, Thomas; Cruz, Pedro; Wright, Amy J; Srivastava, Arun; Flotte, Terence R

    2011-08-01

    ). Currently, rAAV vectors are being utilized in phase I/II clinical trials for cystic fibrosis, α-1 antitrypsin deficiency, Canavan's disease, Parkinson's disease, hemophilia, limb-girdle muscular dystrophy, arthritis, Batten's disease, and Leber's congenital amaurosis (Flotte et al., 1996 , 2004 ; Kay et al., 2000 ; Aitken et al., 2001 ; Wagner et al., 2002 ; Manno et al., 2003 ; Snyder and Francis, 2005 ; Maguire et al., 2008 ; Cideciyan et al., 2009 ). In this study, we present preclinical data to support the viability of an rAAV-based gene transfer strategy for cure of ADA-SCID. We report efficient transduction of a variety of postmitotic target tissues in vivo, subsequent human ADA (hADA) expression, and enhanced hADA secretion in tissues and blood, with increasing peripheral lymphocyte populations over time. PMID:21142972

  17. Non-bridging Oxygens in Calcium Aluminosilicate Glass From Per-calcic to Peraluminous Compositions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, L.; Stebbins, J.

    2008-12-01

    The role of non-bridging oxygen (NBO) and its effects on the thermodynamic and transport properties of aluminosilicate melts are not fully understood, although this species clearly must have a major influence on configurational entropy, viscosity, etc. Its existence along metaluminous joins in alkali- and alkaline-earth aluminosilicates was first postulated from viscosity measurements (Toplis et al., 1996, 2004) and then directly observed in several metaluminous calcium aluminosilicates by 17O nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Much of the recent work has concentrated on glasses with an M+n/(M+nAl) ratio greater than or equal to 0.5 (metaluminous to peralkaline or per-alkaline earth); however, the observed viscosity maxima in several ternary systems occur when this ratio is less than 0.5 (peraluminous). Using NMR spectroscopy, this study investigates the effects of the Ca/Al ratio on the amount of NBO present in calcium aluminosilicate (CAS) glasses. 17O MAS NMR spectra of glasses with 60 mol% SiO2 show a decrease in NBO as the ratio R=Ca+2/(Ca+2Al) decreases, from 6.9% at R=0.56 to 1.0% at R=0.44. Measurable amounts of NBO thus persist well into the peraluminous region of the CAS system, but the species becomes undetectable (<0.5%) when R reaches 0.38 and 0.33. 27Al MAS NMR spectra of these glasses show an increase in the amount of five-coordinated aluminum as compositions become more peraluminous, as is well-known from previous studies (Neuville et al. 2006). Comparison with published viscosity measurements measured at both higher and lower mol % SiO2 (Toplis et al. 2004) suggests that the viscosity maximum does not correspond exactly with the disappearance of NBO from the glasses, but effects of temperature on speciation will need to be taken into account to accurately link glass structure with melt properties: recent work has shown, for example, that NBO content increases with temperature in CaAl2Si2O8 melt (Stebbins et al. 2008).

  18. Sediment Transport During Three Controlled-Flood Experiments on the Colorado River Downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, with Implications for Eddy-Sandbar Deposition in Grand Canyon National Park

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Grams, Paul E.; Griffiths, Ronald E.; Sabol, Thomas A.; Voichick, Nicholas; Tusso, Robert B.; Vanaman, Karen M.; McDonald, Richard R.

    2010-01-01

    Three large-scale field experiments were conducted on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in 1996, 2004, and 2008 to evaluate whether artificial (that is, controlled) floods released from the dam could be used in conjunction with the sand supplied by downstream tributaries to rebuild and sustainably maintain eddy sandbars in the river in Grand Canyon National Park. Higher suspended-sand concentrations during a controlled flood will lead to greater eddy-sandbar deposition rates. During each controlled flood experiment, sediment-transport and bed-sediment data were collected to evaluate sediment-supply effects on sandbar deposition. Data collection substantially increased in spatial and temporal density with each subsequent experiment. The suspended- and bed-sediment data collected during all three controlled-flood experiments are presented and analyzed in this report. Analysis of these data indicate that in designing the hydrograph of a controlled flood that is optimized for sandbar deposition in a given reach of the Colorado River, both the magnitude and the grain size of the sand supply must be considered. Because of the opposing physical effects of bed-sand area and bed-sand grain size in regulating suspended-sand concentration, larger amounts of coarser sand on the bed can lead to lower suspended-sand concentrations, and thus lower rates of sandbar deposition, during a controlled flood than can lesser amounts of finer sand on the bed. Although suspended-sand concentrations were higher at all study sites during the 2008 controlled-flood experiment (CFE) than during either the 1996 or 2004 CFEs, these higher concentrations were likely associated with more sand on the bed of the Colorado River in only lower Glen Canyon. More sand was likely present on the bed of the river in Grand Canyon during the 1996 CFE than during either the 2004 or 2008 CFEs. The question still remains as to whether sandbars can be sustained in the Colorado River in Grand

  19. Effects of River Regulation on Aeolian Landscapes, Grand Canyon National Park, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Draut, A. E.

    2010-12-01

    Sediment deposits in the Colorado River corridor include fluvial sandbars and aeolian dune fields, and the fluvial deposits are the primary sediment source for sand in the aeolian dunes. This 7-year study examined the effects of river regulation at Glen Canyon Dam (alteration of flow regime, sediment-supply reduction, and consequent loss of fluvial sandbars) on aeolian landscapes downstream in Grand Canyon National Park. A comparative study was developed between aeolian landscapes in Grand Canyon, Arizona, and Cataract Canyon, Utah, upstream of Glen Canyon Dam and its reservoir (Lake Powell), where hydrology and sediment supply of the Colorado River are affected substantially less by artificial river regulation than occurs in Grand Canyon. Before closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, sediment-rich floods (mean annual peak 2400 m3/s) formed sandbars from which wind moved sand inland to form aeolian dunes. After dam operations reduced the amplitude and frequency of high flows, and eliminated the mainstream fluvial sediment supply, Grand Canyon’s fluvial sandbars lost open sand area owing to erosion by river flows and the spread of riparian vegetation. Two types of aeolian landscapes now occur in Grand Canyon: (1) modern fluvial sourced, those downwind of post-dam sandbars; and (2) relict fluvial sourced, whose primary sediment source was deposits from pre-dam floods that were larger than any post-dam flows have been. Sediment supply has been reduced to type (1) dune fields because post-dam sandbars are smaller than in the pre-dam era; new sediment supply to type (2) dune fields essentially has been eliminated. Type 1 aeolian landscapes can receive new windblown sand from sandbars formed by controlled floods (1160 m3/s), which occurred in 1996, 2004, and 2008. Type 1 dune fields, being downwind and within 100 m of controlled-flood sandbars, have significantly higher aeolian sand-transport rates, more open sand, and less biologic soil crust than relict type 2 dune

  20. Effects of Experimental High Flow Releases and Increased Fluctuations in Flow from Glen Canyon Dam on Abundance, Growth, and Survival Rates of Early Life Stages of Rainbow Trout in the Lee's Ferry Reach of the Colorado River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korman, Josh

    2010-05-01

    The abundance of adult fish populations is controlled by the growth and survival rates of early life stages. Evaluating the effects of flow regimes on early life stages is therefore critical to determine how these regimes affect the abundance of adult populations. Experimental high flow releases from Glen Canyon Dam, primarily intended to conserve fine sediment and improve habitat conditions for native fish in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, AZ, have been conducted in 1996, 2004, and 2008. These flows potentially affect the Lee's Ferry reach rainbow trout population, located immediately downstream of the dam, which supports a highly valued fishery and likely influences the abundance of rainbow trout in Grand Canyon. Due to concerns about negative effects of high trout abundance on endangered native fish, hourly variation in flow from Glen Canyon Dam was experimentally increased between 2003 and 2005 to reduce trout abundance. This study reports on the effects of experimental high flow releases and fluctuating flows on early life stages of rainbow trout in the Lee's Ferry reach based on monthly sampling of redds (egg nests) and the abundance and growth of age-0 trout between 2003 and 2009. Data on spawn timing, spawning elevations, and intergravel temperatures were integrated in a model to estimate the magnitude and seasonal trend in incubation mortality resulting from redd dewatering due to fluctuations in flow. Experimental fluctuations from January through March promoted spawning at higher elevations where the duration of dewatering was longer and intergravel temperatures exceeded lethal thresholds. Flow-dependent incubation mortality rates were 24% (2003) and 50% (2004) in years with higher flow fluctuations, compared to 5-11% under normal operations (2006-2009). Spatial and temporal predictions of mortality were consistent with direct observations of egg mortality determined from the excavation of 125 redds. The amount of variation in backcalculated hatch

  1. Design and Build of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway considering the Impacts of Warming Climate and Permafrost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, W.; Jin, H.; Cheng, G.; Wu, Q.; Lai, Y.

    2005-12-01

    During the period from 1960 to 2000, an 1°C increase of air temperature has been observed along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (QTR) traversing 632 km of warm and ice-rich permafrost through the interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Correspondingly, mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs) of warm (>-1 °C) permafrost on average increased about 0.3 to 0.5°C during 1970s-1990, while that of colder permafrost had increased by 0.1 to 0.3°C. During 1996-2004, ground temperatures at the permafrost table were increasing at the rates of 0.01-0.08°C a-1, and the permafrost table was lowering at the rates of 2.6 to 6.6 cm a-1; and the ground temperatures at depths of 6 to 8 m were warming at the rates of 0.02 to 0.05°C a-1. Consequently, the strengths of permafrost as the foundation of the QTR would be weakened if proper engineering measures were not taken. Based on the experiences and lessons learned from the road construction in permafrost regions from Alaska, Canada and Russia, and northeastern China, and taking into consideration of possible climatic warming along the QTR during the next 100 years, the design and construction of the QTR adopted the principle of``cooling the roadbed'' because most of the permafrost along the route is too deep to be thawed, too thermally sensitive to climatic warming and too critical to have appreciable thaw settlements. About 550 km of QTR is in continuous permafrost zone, 82 km is in discontinuous permafrost zone; 275 km is in warm permafrost areas, and 110 km of permafrost is ice-rich. The QTR is designed for safe operations during the next 100 years during which a warming of 2.2 to 2.6°C by 2050 is projected. Without engineering measures to keep ground frozen or maintain the settlement within the acceptable limits, thaw settlement in the foundation soils, and induced environmental instability would threaten the integrity and safety of QTR operation. However, only increasing therma resistance, such as increasing fill thickness or

  2. Integrated Geoscience Studies in the Greater Yellowstone Area - Volcanic, Tectonic, and Hydrothermal Processes in the Yellowstone Geoecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morgan, Lisa A., (Edited By)

    2007-01-01

    Yellowstone ecosystem as influenced by the Yellowstone hotspot. Another paper by Paul Carrara describes the recent movement of a large landslide block dated by tree-ring analyses in the Tower Falls area. The section under Yellowstone Lake studies begins with a classic paper by J. David Love and others on ancestral Lake Yellowstone. Other papers in this section include results and interpretation of the high-resolution bathymetric, seismic reflection, and submersible studies by Lisa Morgan and others. Ken Pierce and others describe results from their studies of shorelines along Yellowstone Lake and their interpretation of inflation-deflation cycles, tilting, and faulting in the Yellowstone caldera. The influence of sublacustrine hydrothermal vent fluids on the geochemistry of Yellowstone Lake is described by Laurie Balistrieri and others. In Pat Shanks and others' chapter, hydrothermal reactions, stable-isotope systematics, sinter deposition, and spire formation are related to the geochemistry of sublacustrine hydrothermal deposits in Yellowstone Lake. The geochemical studies section considers park-wide geochemical systems in Yellowstone National Park. In Bob Rye and Alfred Truesdell's paper, the question of recharge to the deep thermal reservoir underlying the geysers and hot springs of Yellowstone National Park is discussed. Irving Friedman and Dan Norton report on the chloride flux emissions from Yellowstone in their paper questioning whether Yellowstone is losing its steam. Wildlife issues as addressed by examining trace-element and stable-isotope geochemistry are discussed in a chapter by Maurice Chaffee and others. In another chapter by Chaffee and others, natural and anthropogenic anomalies and their potential impact on the environment using geochemistry is reported. Pam Gemery-Hill and others present geochemical data for selected rivers, lake waters, hydrothermal vents, and subaerial geysers for the time interval of 1996-2004. The life cycle of gold deposits near th

  3. The same teacher, the same curriculum materials, different schools: What is the enacted curriculum?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisenmann, Tammy

    This research examines how the same teacher implements the same curriculum material in two different schools. The aim of the study is to examine how the enacted algebra curriculum may change when the same teacher enacts the same written curriculum materials in different classes. This research comprises two case studies. Each case examines one teacher who taught the beginning of the mathematical topic "equivalent algebraic expressions", to two 7th grade classes from different schools. The same textbook was used in all four classes. The data collected includes: 1. Observations: 25930 lessons throughout the school year in each of the participating classes; Other mathematics classes in each of the schools; Other non9mathematics classes in the participating classes. A total of 130 lessons were observed. The observations included continuous observations of the teaching of "equivalent algebraic expressions" (15919 lessons) in each class. These observations are the main data source of this research; 2. Interviews with the teachers; 3. Informal conversations; and 4. Field notes. The data was analyzed both through quantitative and qualitative analysis. The research focuses on the following two aspects of the enacted curriculum: implementation of the recommendation that appeared in the curriculum materials and the types of algebraic activity that the students were exposed to during the teaching of the mathematical topic. Kieran's framework (Kieran, 1996, 2004), which distinguishes between three types of algebraic activities 9 generational, transformational and global/meta9level 9 was employed for the examination of the algebraic activities. Comparisons were made for two aspects of the research: between the enacted curriculum in each of the classes and the curriculum materials; and between each of the classes taught by same teacher. It was found that in case study 1, that examined teacher Sara and schools Carmel and Tavor -- most of the recommendations for instruction that

  4. Short-Term Effects of the 2008 High-Flow Experiment on Macroinvertebrates in Colorado River Below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosi-Marshall, Emma J.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Kincaid, Dustin W.; Cross, Wyatt F.; Kelly, Holly A.W.; Behn, Kathrine A.; White, Tyler; Hall, Robert O., Jr.; Baxter, Colden V.

    2010-01-01

    Glen Canyon Dam has dramatically altered the physical environment (especially discharge regime, water temperatures, and sediment inputs) of the Colorado River. High-flow experiments (HFE) that mimic one aspect of the natural hydrograph (floods) were implemented in 1996, 2004, and 2008. The primary goal of these experiments was to increase the size and total area of sandbar habitats that provide both camping sites for recreational users and create backwaters (areas of stagnant flow in the lee of return-current eddies) that may be important as rearing habitat for native fish. Experimental flows might also positively or negatively alter the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) sport fishery in the clear tailwater reach below Glen Canyon Dam, Ariz., and native fish populations in downstream reaches (for example, endangered humpback chub, Gila cypha) through changes in available food resources. We examined the short-term response of benthic macroinvertebrates to the March 2008 HFE at three sites [river mile 0 (RM 0, 15.7 miles downriver from the dam), RM 62, and RM 225] along the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam by sampling immediately before and then 1, 7, 14, and 30 days after the HFE. We selected these sites because of their importance to management; RM 0 has a valuable trout fishery, and RM 62 is the location of the largest population of the endangered humpback chub in the Grand Canyon. In addition to the short-term collection of samples, as part of parallel investigations, we collected 3 years of monthly (quarterly for RM 62) benthic macroinvertebrate samples that included 15 months of post-HFE data for all three sites, but processing of the samples is only complete for one site (RM 0). At RM 0, the HFE caused an immediate 1.75 g AFDM/m2 (expressed as grams ash-free dry mass, or AFDM) reduction of macroinvertebrate biomass that was driven by significant reductions in the biomass of the two dominant taxa in this reach-Potamopyrgus antipodarum (New