Sample records for a1b emission scenario

  1. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  2. Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Tang, Jianping; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Gao, Xuejie; Wu, Jia; Hong, Songyou; Gutowski, William J.; McGregor, John

    2015-10-01

    As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

  3. Bleaching and mortality of a photosymbiotic bioeroding sponge under future carbon dioxide emission scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fang, James K H; Schönberg, Christine H L; Mello-Athayde, Matheus A; Achlatis, Michelle; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

    2018-05-01

    The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis is photosymbiotic with dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium and is pervasive on the Great Barrier Reef. We investigated how C. orientalis responded to past and future ocean conditions in a simulated community setting. The experiment lasted over an Austral summer under four carbon dioxide emission scenarios: a pre-industrial scenario (PI), a present-day scenario (PD; control), and two future scenarios of combined ocean acidification and ocean warming, i.e., B1 (intermediate) and A1FI (extreme). The four scenarios also simulated natural variability of carbon dioxide partial pressure and temperature in seawater. Responses of C. orientalis generally remained similar between the PI and PD treatments. C. orientalis under B1 displayed a dramatic increase in lateral tissue extension, but bleached and displayed reduced rates of respiration and photosynthesis. Some B1 sponge replicates died by the end of the experiment. Under A1FI, strong bleaching and subsequent mortality of all C. orientalis replicates occurred at an early stage of the experiment. Mortality arrested bioerosion by C. orientalis under B1 and A1FI. Overall, the absolute amount of calcium carbonate eroded by C. orientalis under B1 or A1FI was similar to that under PI or PD at the end of the experiment. Although bioerosion rates were raised by short-term experimental acidification in previous studies, our findings from the photosymbiotic C. orientalis imply that the effects of bioerosion on reef carbonate budgets may only be temporary if the bioeroders cannot survive long-term in the future oceans.

  4. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  5. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    PubMed

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  6. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher

  7. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  8. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  9. Past, present, and future emissions of HCFC-141b in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ziyuan; Yan, Huanghuang; Fang, Xuekun; Gao, Lingyun; Zhai, Zihan; Hu, Jianxin; Zhang, Boya; Zhang, Jianbo

    2015-05-01

    According to the Montreal Protocol, China is required to phase-out hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by 2030. Compound 1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane (CH3CCl2F, HCFC-141b) has an ozone depleting potential (ODP, 0.11) and global warming potential (GWP, 782), and is widely used in the polyurethane foam and solvent sectors in China. This study compiles a comprehensive emission inventory of HCFC-141b during 2000-2013 and makes a projection to 2050. Our results showed that HCFC-141b emissions in China increased from 0.8 Gg/yr (0.6 CO2-eq Tg/yr) in 2000 to 15.8 Gg/yr (12.4 CO2-eq Tg/yr) in 2013 with an accelerated growth rate. The provincial emission distribution showed that Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are key emission areas in China. A large amount of stock was retained in installed equipment, which may have an impact in the future. For future phasing-out, it was estimated that under the Montreal Planned Phase-out scenario (MPP), the accumulative reduction of HCFC-141b emissions during 2014-2050 would be 3071.0 Gg (2401.5 CO2-eq Tg) compared to that under the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. This study reviewed and predicted HCFC-141b emissions and their environmental impacts in China.

  10. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  11. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

  12. Development of reduction scenarios for criteria air pollutants emission in Tehran Traffic Sector, Iran.

    PubMed

    Mohammadiha, Amir; Malakooti, Hossein; Esfahanian, Vahid

    2018-05-01

    Transport-related pollution as the main source of air pollution must be reduced in Tehran mega-city. The performance of various developed scenarios including BAU (Business As Usual) as baseline scenario, ECV (Elimination of carburetor equipped Vehicle), NEM (New Energy Motorcycles), HES (Higher Emission Standard), VCR (Vehicle Catalyst Replacement), FQE (Fuel Quality Enhancement), DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) and TSA (Total Scenarios Aggregation) are evaluated by International Vehicle Model up to 2028. In the short term, the ECV, VCR, and FQE scenarios provided high performance in CO, VOCs and NOx emissions control. Also FQE has an excellent effect on SOx emission reduction (86%) and DPF on PM emissions (20%). In the mid-term, the VCR, ECV, and FQE scenarios were presented desirable mean emission reduction on CO, VOCs, and NOx. Moreover, NOx emission reduction of DPF scenario is the most common (14%). Again FQE scenario proves to have great effect on SOx emission reduction in mid-term (86%), DPF and HES scenarios on PM (DPF: 49% and HES: 17%). Finally for the long term, VCR, ECV, FQE, and NEM scenarios were shown good performance in emission control on CO, VOCs and NOx. For SOx only FQE has a good effect in all time periods (FQE: 86%) and DPF and HES scenarios have the best effect on PM emission reduction respectively (DPF: 51% and HES: 27%) compared with BAU scenario. However, DPF scenario increases 12% SOx emission in long-term (2028). It can be generally concluded that VCR and ECV scenarios would achieve a significant reduction on gaseous pollutants emission except for SOx in general and FQE scenarios have desirable performance for all gaseous pollutants in the short term and also for SOx and VOCs in long term. In addition, the DPF and HES would be desirable scenario for emission control on PM in Tehran Traffic Sector. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-04-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  14. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  15. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  16. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

  17. Year 2015 Aircraft Emission Scenario for Scheduled Air Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Sutkus, Donald J.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  18. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  19. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  20. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  1. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Treesearch

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  2. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

    2016-05-17

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

  3. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  5. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

  6. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    DOE PAGES

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; ...

    2016-04-14

    Here in this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO 2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010-2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic costmore » of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO 2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO 2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO 2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts a 11.3% reduction under the ‘high’ carbon tax. The main reasons for this difference are differences in assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO 2 storage capacity, and the ability to

  7. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

    PubMed

    Matsuno, Taroh; Maruyama, Koki; Tsutsui, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

  8. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  9. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  10. Global production, use, and emission volumes of short-chain chlorinated paraffins - A minimum scenario.

    PubMed

    Glüge, Juliane; Wang, Zhanyun; Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2016-12-15

    Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) show high persistence, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity (PBT properties). Consequently, restrictions on production and use have been enforced in several countries/regions. The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants recognized the PBT properties and long-range transport potential of SCCPs in 2015 and is now evaluating a possible global phase-out or restrictions. In this context, it is relevant to know which countries are producing/using SCCPs and in which amounts, and which applications contribute most to their environmental emissions. To provide a first comprehensive overview, we review and integrate all publicly available data on the global production and use of both chlorinated paraffins (CPs) as a whole and specifically SCCPs. Considerable amount of data on production/use of CPs and SCCPs are missing. Based on the available data and reported emission factors, we estimate the past and current worldwide SCCP emissions from individual applications. Using the available data as a minimum scenario, we conclude: (i) SCCP production and use is increasing, with the current worldwide production volume being 165,000t/year at least, whereas the global production of total CPs exceeds 1milliont/year. (ii) The worldwide release of SCCPs from their production and use to air, surface water, and soil between 1935 and 2012 has been in the range of 1690-41,400t, 1660-105,000t, and 9460-81,000t, respectively. (iii) The SCCP manufacture and use in PVC, the use in metal working applications and sealants/adhesives, and the use in plastics and rubber contribute most to the emissions to air, surface water, and soil. Thus, the decrease in the environmental emissions of SCCPs requires reduction of SCCP use in (almost) all applications. (iv) Emissions due to the disposal of waste SCCPs cannot be accurately estimated, because relevant information is missing. Instead, we conduct a scenario analysis to provide some insights into

  11. Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

    PubMed

    Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

    2018-06-01

    Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  13. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  14. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  15. Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2011-12-01

    In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

  16. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  17. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-01-01

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  18. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  19. Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

    2016-12-01

    As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

  20. Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C earth system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falloon, P. D.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R. A.; Jones, C. D.; Booth, B. B. B.; Lambert, F. H.

    2012-06-01

    The aim of our study was to use the coupled climate-carbon cycle model HadCM3C to quantify climate impact of ecosystem changes over recent decades and under future scenarios, due to changes in both atmospheric CO2 and surface albedo. We use two future scenarios - the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, and a climate stabilisation scenario (2C20), allowing us to assess the impact of climate mitigation on results. We performed a pair of simulations under each scenario - one in which vegetation was fixed at the initial state and one in which vegetation changes dynamically in response to climate change, as determined by the interactive vegetation model within HadCM3C. In our simulations with interactive vegetation, relatively small changes in global vegetation coverage were found, mainly dominated by increases in scrub and needleleaf trees at high latitudes and losses of broadleaf trees and grasses across the Amazon. Globally this led to a loss of terrestrial carbon, mainly from the soil. Global changes in carbon storage were related to the regional losses from the Amazon and gains at high latitude. Regional differences in carbon storage between the two scenarios were largely driven by the balance between warming-enhanced decomposition and altered vegetation growth. Globally, interactive vegetation reduced albedo acting to enhance albedo changes due to climate change. This was mainly related to the darker land surface over high latitudes (due to vegetation expansion, particularly during winter and spring); small increases in albedo occurred over the Amazon. As a result, there was a relatively small impact of vegetation change on most global annual mean climate variables, which was generally greater under A1B than 2C20, with markedly stronger local-to-regional and seasonal impacts. Globally, vegetation change amplified future annual temperature increases by 0.24 and 0.15 K (under A1B and 2C20, respectively) and increased global precipitation, with reductions in precipitation over

  1. Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C Earth system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falloon, P. D.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R. A.; Jones, C. D.; Booth, B. B. B.; Lambert, F. H.

    2012-11-01

    The aim of our study was to use the coupled climate-carbon cycle model HadCM3C to quantify climate impact of ecosystem changes over recent decades and under future scenarios, due to changes in both atmospheric CO2 and surface albedo. We use two future scenarios - the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, and a climate stabilisation scenario (2C20), allowing us to assess the impact of climate mitigation on results. We performed a pair of simulations under each scenario - one in which vegetation was fixed at the initial state and one in which vegetation changes dynamically in response to climate change, as determined by the interactive vegetation model within HadCM3C. In our simulations with interactive vegetation, relatively small changes in global vegetation coverage were found, mainly dominated by increases in shrub and needleleaf trees at high latitudes and losses of broadleaf trees and grasses across the Amazon. Globally this led to a loss of terrestrial carbon, mainly from the soil. Global changes in carbon storage were related to the regional losses from the Amazon and gains at high latitude. Regional differences in carbon storage between the two scenarios were largely driven by the balance between warming-enhanced decomposition and altered vegetation growth. Globally, interactive vegetation reduced albedo acting to enhance albedo changes due to climate change. This was mainly related to the darker land surface over high latitudes (due to vegetation expansion, particularly during December-January and March-May); small increases in albedo occurred over the Amazon. As a result, there was a relatively small impact of vegetation change on most global annual mean climate variables, which was generally greater under A1B than 2C20, with markedly stronger local-to-regional and seasonal impacts. Globally, vegetation change amplified future annual temperature increases by 0.24 and 0.15 K (under A1B and 2C20, respectively) and increased global precipitation, with reductions in

  2. Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study.

    PubMed

    Tainio, Marko; Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas Rv; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

    2017-02-22

    To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1-5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Working age population for England. Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO 2 e/year for the diet scenarios. Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  3. Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

    2013-11-01

    This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  4. Temperature - Emissivity Separation Assessment in a Sub-Urban Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moscadelli, M.; Diani, M.; Corsini, G.

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, a methodology that aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different TES strategies is presented. The methodology takes into account the specific material of interest in the monitored scenario, sensor characteristics, and errors in the atmospheric compensation step. The methodology is proposed in order to predict and analyse algorithms performances during the planning of a remote sensing mission, aimed to discover specific materials of interest in the monitored scenario. As case study, the proposed methodology is applied to a real airborne data set of a suburban scenario. In order to perform the TES problem, three state-of-the-art algorithms, and a recently proposed one, are investigated: Temperature-Emissivity Separation '98 (TES-98) algorithm, Stepwise Refining TES (SRTES) algorithm, Linear piecewise TES (LTES) algorithm, and Optimized Smoothing TES (OSTES) algorithm. At the end, the accuracy obtained with real data, and the ones predicted by means of the proposed methodology are compared and discussed.

  5. A search for cyanopolyynes in L1157-B1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendoza, Edgar; Lefloch, B.; Ceccarelli, C.; Kahane, C.; Jaber, A. A.; Podio, L.; Benedettini, M.; Codella, C.; Viti, S.; Jimenez-Serra, I.; Lepine, J. R. D.; Boechat-Roberty, H. M.; Bachiller, R.

    2018-04-01

    We present here a systematic search for cyanopolyynes in the shock region L1157-B1 and its associated protostar L1157-mm in the framework of the Large Program`Astrochemical Surveys At IRAM' (ASAI), dedicated to chemical surveys of solar-type star-forming regions with the IRAM 30-m telescope. Observations of the millimeter windows between 72 and 272 GHz permitted the detection of HC3N and its 13C isotopologues, and HC5N (for the first time in a protostellar shock region). In the shock, the analysis of the line profiles shows that the emission arises from the outflow cavities associated with L1157-B1 and L1157-B2. Molecular abundances and excitation conditions were obtained from the analysis of the Spectral Line Energy Distributions under the assumption of Local Thermodynamical Equilibrium or using a radiative transfer code in the Large Velocity Gradient approximation. Towards L1157 mm, the HC3N emission arises from the cold envelope (T_rot=10K) and a higher-excitation region (Trot = 31K) of smaller extent around the protostar. We did not find any evidence of 13C or D fractionation enrichment towards L1157-B1. We obtain a relative abundance ratio HC3N/HC5N of 3.3 in the shocked gas. We find an increase by a factor of 30 of the HC3N abundance between the envelope of L1157-mm and the shock region itself. Altogether, these results are consistent with a scenario in which the bulk of HC3N was produced by means of gas phase reactions in the passage of the shock. This scenario is supported by the predictions of a parametric shock code coupled with the chemical model UCL_CHEM.

  6. Testing the Young Neutron Star Scenario with Persistent Radio Emission Associated with FRB 121102

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kashiyama, Kazumi; Murase, Kohta

    Recently a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 has been confirmed to be an extragalactic event and a persistent radio counterpart has been identified. While other possibilities are not ruled out, the emission properties are broadly consistent with Murase et al. that theoretically proposed quasi-steady radio emission as a counterpart of both FRBs and pulsar-driven supernovae. Here, we constrain the model parameters of such a young neutron star scenario for FRB 121102. If the associated supernova has a conventional ejecta mass of M {sub ej} ≳ a few M {sub ⊙}, a neutron star with an age of t {submore » age} ∼ 10–100 years, an initial spin period of P{sub i} ≲ a few ms, and a dipole magnetic field of B {sub dip} ≲ a few × 10{sup 13} G can be compatible with the observations. However, in this case, the magnetically powered scenario may be favored as an FRB energy source because of the efficiency problem in the rotation-powered scenario. On the other hand, if the associated supernova is an ultra-stripped one or the neutron star is born by the accretion-induced collapse with M {sub ej} ∼ 0.1 M {sub ⊙}, a younger neutron star with t {sub age} ∼ 1–10 years can be the persistent radio source and might produce FRBs with the spin-down power. These possibilities can be distinguished by the decline rate of the quasi-steady radio counterpart.« less

  7. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  8. Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study

    PubMed Central

    Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas RV; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

    2017-01-01

    Objective To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. Design For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1–5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Setting Working age population for England. Participants Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Primary outcomes measured Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Results Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO2e/year for the diet scenarios. Conclusions Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. PMID:28399514

  9. Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

    2016-01-01

    Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

  10. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  11. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  12. Modeling the impact of crop rotation with legume on nitrous oxide emissions from rain-fed agricultural systems in Australia under alternative future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ma, Yuchun; Schwenke, Graeme; Sun, Liying; Liu, De Li; Wang, Bin; Yang, Bo

    2018-07-15

    Limited information exists on potential impacts of climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions by including N 2 -fixing legumes in crop rotations from rain-fed cropping systems. Data from two 3-yr crop rotations in northern NSW, Australia, viz. chickpea-wheat-barley (CpWB) and canola-wheat-barley (CaWB), were used to gain an insight on the role of legumes in mitigation of N 2 O emissions. High-frequency N 2 O fluxes measured with an automated system of static chambers were utilized to test the applicability of Denitrification and Decomposition model. The DNDC model was run using the on-site observed weather, soil and farming management conditions as well as the representative concentration pathways adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fifth Assessment Report. The DNDC model captured the cumulative N 2 O emissions with variations falling within the deviation ranges of observations (0.88±0.31kgNha -1 rotation -1 for CpWB, 1.44±0.02kgNha -1 rotation -1 for CaWB). The DNDC model can be used to predict between modeled and measured N 2 O flux values for CpWB (n=390, RSR=0.45) and CaWB (n=390, RSR=0.51). Long-term (80-yr) simulations were conducted with RCP 4.5 representing a global greenhouse gas stabilization scenario, as well RCP 8.5 representing a very high greenhouse gas emission scenario based on RCP scenarios. Compared with the baseline scenarios for CpWB and CaWB, the long-term simulation results under RCP scenarios showed that, (1) N 2 O emissions would increase by 35-44% for CpWB and 72-76% for CaWB under two climate scenarios; (2) grain yields would increase by 9% and 18% under RCP 4.5, and 2% and 14% under RCP 8.5 for CpWB and CaWB, respectively; and (3) yield-scaled N 2 O-N emission would increase by 24-42% for CpWB and 46-54% for CaWB under climate scenarios, respectively. Our results suggest that 25% of the yield-scaled N 2 O-N emission would be saved by switching to a legume rotation under climate change conditions. Crown

  13. Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory

    This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees.more » Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.« less

  14. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  15. High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

  16. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  17. Non-variable TeV emission from the extended jet of a blazar in the stochastic acceleration scenario: the case of the hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Dahai; Zeng, Houdun; Zhang, Li

    2012-08-01

    The detections of X-ray emission from the kiloparsec-scale jets of blazars and radio galaxies could imply the existence of high-energy electrons in these extended jets, and these electrons could produce high-energy emission through the inverse Compton (IC) process. In this paper, we study the non-variable hard TeV emission from a blazar. The multiband emission consists of two components: (i) the traditional synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) emission from the inner jet; (ii) the emission produced via SSC and IC scattering of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons (IC/CMB) and extragalactic background light (EBL) photons by relativistic electrons in the extended jet under the stochastic acceleration scenario. Such a model is applied to 1ES 1101-232. The results indicate the following. (i) The non-variable hard TeV emission of 1ES 1101-232, which is dominated by IC/CMB emission from the extended jet, can be reproduced well by using three characteristic values of the Doppler factor (δD = 5, 10 and 15) for the TeV-emitting region in the extended jet. (ii) In the cases of δD = 15 and 10, the physical parameters can achieve equipartition (or quasi-equipartition) between the relativistic electrons and the magnetic field. In contrast, the physical parameters largely deviate from equipartition for the case of δD = 5. Therefore, we conclude that the TeV emission region of 1ES 1101-232 in the extended jet should be moderately or highly beamed.

  18. A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grubler, Arnulf; Wilson, Charlie; Bento, Nuno; Boza-Kiss, Benigna; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David L.; Rao, Narasimha D.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; De Stercke, Simon; Cullen, Jonathan; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Guo, Fei; Gidden, Matt; Havlík, Petr; Huppmann, Daniel; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Rafaj, Peter; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Valin, Hugo

    2018-06-01

    Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

  19. Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

    2007-03-26

    We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than themore » difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.« less

  20. How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marty, Christoph; Schlögl, Sebastian; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

    2017-02-01

    This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).

  1. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  2. Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

    2009-12-01

    Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

  3. Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zapata, Christina B.; Yang, Chris; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors) increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG-Step scenario vs

  4. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    A comprehensive regional assessment of emission sources is a major hindrance for a complete understanding of the air quality and for designing appropriate mitigation solutions in Nepal, a landlocked country in foothills of the Himalaya. This study attempts, for the first time, to develop a fine resolution (1km × 1km) present day emission inventory of Nepal with a higher tier approach using our understanding of the currently used technologies, energy consumption used in various energy sectors and its resultant emissions. We estimate present-day emissions of aerosols (BC, OC and PM2.5), trace gases (SO2, CO, NOX and VOC) and greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) from non-open burning sources (residential, industry, transport, commercial) and open-burning sources (agriculture and municipal solid waste burning) for the base year 2013. We used methodologies published in literatures, and both primary and secondary data to estimate energy production and consumption in each sector and its sub-sector and associated emissions. Local practices and activity rates are explicitly accounted for energy consumption and dispersed often under-documented emission sources like brick manufacturing, diesel generator sets, mining, stone crushing, solid waste burning and diesel use in farms are considered. Apart from pyrogenic source of CH4 emissions, methanogenic and enteric fermentation sources are also accounted. Region-specific and newly measured country-specific emission factors are used for emission estimates. Activity based proxies are used for spatial and temporal distribution of emissions. Preliminary results suggest that 80% of national energy consumption is in residential sector followed by industry (8%) and transport (7%). More than 90% of the residential energy is supplied by biofuel which needs immediate attention to reduce emissions. Further, the emissions would be compared with other contemporary studies, regional and global datasets and used in the model simulations to

  5. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    DOE PAGES

    Grandey, Benjamin S.; Cheng, Haiwen; Wang, Chien

    2016-04-06

    Fuel usage is an important driver of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In Asia, it is possible that aerosol emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly as a result of the widespread adoption of cleaner technologies or a shift toward noncoal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of two aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) control, which projects a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and a scenario with enhanced anthropogenic aerosolmore » emissions from Asia. A coupled atmosphere–ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is used. Three sets of initial conditions are used to produce a three-member ensemble for each scenario. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to exert a large cooling effect across the Northern Hemisphere, partially offsetting greenhouse gas–induced warming. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world. Over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced, an effect associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, driven by the aerosol-induced cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. Over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed, likely via a weakening of the West African westerly jet. These results indicate that fuel usage in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.« less

  6. Resolving the Optical Emission Lines of Lyα Blob "B1" at z = 2.38: Another Hidden Quasar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overzier, R. A.; Nesvadba, N. P. H.; Dijkstra, M.; Hatch, N. A.; Lehnert, M. D.; Villar-Martín, M.; Wilman, R. J.; Zirm, A. W.

    2013-07-01

    We have used the SINFONI near-infrared integral field unit on the Very Large Telescope to resolve the optical emission line structure of one of the brightest (L Lyα ≈ 1044 erg s-1) and nearest (z ≈ 2.38) of all Lyα blobs (LABs). The target, known in the literature as object "B1", lies at a redshift where the main optical emission lines are accessible in the observed near-infrared. We detect luminous [O III] λλ4959, 5007 and Hα emission with a spatial extent of at least 32 × 40 kpc (4'' × 5''). The dominant optical emission line component shows relatively broad lines (600-800 km s-1, FWHM) and line ratios consistent with active galactic nucleus (AGN) photoionization. The new evidence for AGN photoionization, combined with previously detected C IV and luminous, warm infrared emission, suggest that B1 is the site of a hidden quasar. This is confirmed by the fact that [O II] is relatively weak compared with [O III] (extinction-corrected [O III]/[O II] of about 3.8), which is indicative of a high, Seyfert-like ionization parameter. From the extinction-corrected [O III] luminosity we infer a bolometric AGN luminosity of ~3 × 1046 erg s-1, and further conclude that the obscured AGN may be Compton-thick given existing X-ray limits. The large line widths observed are consistent with clouds moving within the narrow-line region of a luminous QSO. The AGN scenario is capable of producing sufficient ionizing photons to power the Lyα, even in the presence of dust. By performing a census of similar objects in the literature, we find that virtually all luminous LABs harbor obscured quasars. Based on simple duty-cycle arguments, we conclude that AGNs are the main drivers of the Lyα in LABs rather than the gravitational heating and subsequent cooling suggested by cold stream models. We also conclude that the empirical relation between LABs and overdense environments at high redshift must be due to a more fundamental correlation between AGNs (or massive galaxies) and

  7. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    Though much work has been done to develop accurate chemical emission inventories, few publicly available inventories are appropriate for realistic policy analysis. Emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors, in particular, respond in complex ways to policy, technology, and energy use change. Many widely used inventories, such as the EPA National Emissions Inventory, are well-suited for modeling current air quality, but do not have the specificity needed to address "what if?" questions. Changes in electricity demand, fuel prices, new power sources, and emission controls all influence the emissions from regional power production, requiring a plant-by-plant assessment to capture the spatially explicit impacts. Similarly, land use, freight distribution, or driving behavior will yield differentiated transportation emissions for urban areas, suburbs, and rural highways. We here present results from three recent research projects at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, where bottom-up emission inventories for electricity, freight transport, and urban vehicle use were constructed to support policy-relevant air quality research. These three studies include: 1) Using the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and air quality impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards and other carbon-management strategies; 2) Using advanced vehicle and commodity flow data from the Federal Highway Administration to evaluate the potential to shift commodities from truck to rail (assuming expanded infrastructure), and assess a range of alternative fuel suggestions; and 3) Working with urban planners to connect urban density with vehicle use to evaluate the air quality impacts of smart-growth in major Midwest cities. Drawing on the results of these three studies, and on challenges overcome in their execution, we discuss the current state of policy-relevant emission dataset generation, as well as techniques and attributes that need to be further refined in order

  8. A probabilistic approach to emissions from transportation sector in the coming decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

    2010-12-01

    Future emission estimates are necessary for understanding climate change, designing national and international strategies for air quality control and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so. Most current emission projection models are deterministic; in other words, there is only single answer for each scenario. As a result, uncertainties have not been included in the estimation of climate forcing or other environmental effects, but it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. We explore uncertainties of emission projections from transportation sector in the coming decades by sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. These projections are based on a technology driven model: the Speciated Pollutants Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend, which responds to socioeconomic conditions in different economic and mitigation scenarios. The model contains detail about technology stock, including consumption growth rates, retirement rates, timing of emission standards, deterioration rates and transition rates from normal vehicles to vehicles with extremely high emission factors (termed “superemitters”). However, understanding of these parameters, as well as relationships with socioeconomic conditions, is uncertain. We project emissions from transportation sectors under four different IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). Due to the later implementation of advanced emission standards, Africa has the highest annual growth rate (1.2-3.1%) from 2010 to 2050. Superemitters begin producing more than 50% of global emissions around year 2020. We estimate uncertainties from the relationships between technological change and socioeconomic conditions and examine their impact on future emissions. Sensitivities to parameters governing retirement rates are highest, causing changes in global emissions from-26% to +55% on average from 2010 to 2050. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to examine

  9. Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

    PubMed Central

    MATSUNO, Taroh; MARUYAMA, Koki; TSUTSUI, Junichi

    2012-01-01

    Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. PMID:22850728

  10. On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Streets, D. G.; Bond, T. C.; Lee, T.; Jang, C.

    2004-12-01

    This paper presents the first model-based forecasts of future emissions of the primary carbonaceous aerosols, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The forecasts build on a recent 1996 inventory of emissions that contains detailed fuel, technology, sector, and world-region specifications. The forecasts are driven by four IPCC scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, and B2, out to 2030 and 2050, incorporating not only changing patterns of fuel use but also technology development. Emissions from both energy generation and open biomass burning are included. We project that global BC emissions will decline from 8.0 Tg in 1996 to 5.3-7.3 Tg by 2030 and to 4.3-6.1 Tg by 2050, across the range of scenarios. We project that OC emissions will decline from 34 Tg in 1996 to 24-30 Tg by 2030 and to 21-28 Tg by 2050. The introduction of advanced technology with lower emission rates, as well as a shift away from the use of traditional solid fuels in the residential sector, more than offsets the increased combustion of fossil fuels worldwide. Environmental pressures and a diminishing demand for new agricultural land lead to a slow decline in the amount of open biomass burning. Although emissions of BC and OC are generally expected to decline around the world, some regions, particularly South America, northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania, show increasing emissions in several scenarios. Particularly difficult to control are BC emissions from the transport sector, which increase under most scenarios. We expect that the BC/OC emission ratio for energy sources will rise from 0.5 to as much as 0.8, signifying a shift toward net warming of the climate system due to carbonaceous aerosols. When biomass burning is included, however, the BC/OC emission ratios are for the most part invariant across scenarios at about 0.2.

  11. Temperature Rise and Allowable Carbon Emissions for the RCP2.6 Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Huntingford, C.; Kawamiya, M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate research centres are running Earth System Models (ESMs) forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. While these GCM studies increase process based knowledge, the number of simulations is small, making it difficult to interpret the resulting distribution of responses in a probabilistic way. We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the range of future temperature change and allowable emissions for a low mitigation CO2 concentration pathway RCP 2.6. Uncertainty is initially estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then further constrained by extensive use of contemporary measurements. Despite this, the resulting range of temperatures for RCP 2.6 remains large. The predicted peak global temperature increase, reached around 2100, from pre-industrial is 0.8 - 1.9 K and 1.0 - 1.9 K (95% range) for the unconstrained and the constrained cases, respectively. Allowable emissions at the time of peak emission period is projected as 6.0 - 10.8 PgC yr-1 and 7.4 - 10.2 PgC yr-1 for each case. After year 2100, negative net emissions are required with a probability of some 84 %, and related uncertainty in cumulative emissions is large.

  12. Study of Infrared Emission Spectroscopy for the B1Δg-A1Πu and B'1Σg+-A1Πu Systems of C2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jian; Chen, Wang; Kawaguchi, Kentarou; Bernath, Peter F.

    2016-06-01

    Recently, we carried out the perturbation analysis of C_2 spectra and identified forbidden singlet-triplet intersystem transitions, which aroused further interest in other C_2 spectra for the many low-lying electronic states of this fundamental molecule. In 1988, the B1Δg-A1Πu and B'1Σg+-A1Πu band systems were discovered by Douay et al., who observed eight bands of the B1Δg-A1Πu system with v up to 5 for the B1Δg state and six bands of the B'1Σg+-A1Πu system with v up to 3 for the B'1Σg+ state in the Fourier transform infrared emission spectra of hydrocarbon discharges. In the work presented here, we identified twenty-four bands of the two systems, among which the B'1Σg+ v = 4 and the B1Δg v = 6, 7 and 8 vibrational levels involved in nine bands were studied for the first time. A direct global analysis with Dunham parameters was carried out satisfactorily for the B1Δg-A1Πu system except for a small perturbation in the B1Δg v = 6 level. The calculated rovibrational term energies up to B1Δg v = 12 showed that the level crossing between the B1Δg and d3Πg states is responsible for many of the prominent perturbations in the Swan system observed previously. Nineteen lines of the B1Δg-a3Πu forbidden transitions were identified and the off-diagonal spin-orbit interaction constant AdB between d3Πg and B1Δg was derived as 8.3(1) wn. For the B'1Σg+-A1Πu system, only individual band analyses for each vibrational level in the B'1Σg+ state could be done satisfactorily and Dunham parameters obtained from these effective parameters showed that the anharmonic vibrational constant ω_e x_e is anomalously small (nearly zero). Inspection of the RKR potential curves for the B'1Σg+ and X1Σg+ states revealed that an avoided crossing may occur around 30000 wn, which is responsible for the anomalous molecular constants in these two states. W. Chen, K. Kawaguchi, P. F. Bernath, and J. Tang, J. Chem. Phys., 141, 064317 (2015) M. Douay, R. Nietmann and P. F. Bernath

  13. Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

  14. Effects of elevated nutrients and CO2 emission scenarios on three coral reef macroalgae.

    PubMed

    Bender-Champ, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

    2017-05-01

    Coral reef macroalgae are expected to thrive in the future under conditions that are deleterious to the health of reef-building corals. Here we examined how macroalgae would be affected by exposure to future CO 2 emission scenarios (pCO 2 and temperature), enriched nutrients and combinations of both. The species tested, Laurencia intricata (Rhodophyta), Turbinaria ornata and Chnoospora implexa (both Phaeophyceae), have active carbon-concentrating mechanisms but responded differently to the treatments. L. intricata showed high mortality under nutrient enriched RCP4.5 ("reduced" CO 2 emission) and RCP8.5 ("business-as-usual" CO 2 emission) and grew best under pre-industrial (PI) conditions, where it could take up carbon using external carbonic anhydrase combined, potentially, with proton extrusion. T. ornata's growth rate showed a trend for reduction under RCP8.5 but was unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In C. implexa, highest growth was observed under PI conditions, but highest net photosynthesis occurred under RCP8.5, suggesting that under RCP8.5, carbon is stored and respired at greater rates while it is directed to growth under PI conditions. None of the species showed growth enhancement under future scenarios, nutrient enrichment or combinations of both. This leads to the conclusion that under such conditions these species are unlikely to pose an increasing threat to coral reefs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluating EDGARv4.tox2 speciated mercury emissions ex-post scenarios and their impacts on modelled global and regional wet deposition patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Giang, Amanda; Selin, Noelle E.; Zhong, Hui; Zhao, Yu; Olivier, Jos G. J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Crippa, Monica; Schaaf, Edwin; Dentener, Frank

    2018-07-01

    Speciated mercury gridded emissions inventories together with chemical transport models and concentration measurements are essential when investigating both the effectiveness of mitigation measures and the mercury cycle in the environment. Since different mercury species have contrasting behaviour in the atmosphere, their proportion in anthropogenic emissions could determine the spatial impacts. In this study, the time series from 1970 to 2012 of the EDGARv4.tox2 global mercury emissions inventory are described; the total global mercury emission in 2010 is 1772 tonnes. Global grid-maps with geospatial distribution of mercury emissions at a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution are provided for each year. Compared to the previous tox1 version, tox2 provides updates for more recent years and improved emissions in particular for agricultural waste burning, power generation and artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sectors. We have also developed three retrospective emissions scenarios based on different hypotheses related to the proportion of mercury species in the total mercury emissions for each activity sector; improvements in emissions speciation are seen when using information primarily from field measurements. We evaluated them using the GEOS-Chem 3-D mercury model in order to explore the influence of speciation shifts, to reactive mercury forms in particular, on regional wet deposition patterns. The reference scenario S1 (EDGARv4.tox2_S1) uses speciation factors from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); scenario S2 ("EPA_power") uses factors from EPA's Information Collection Request (ICR); and scenario S3 ("Asia_filedM") factors from recent scientific publications. In the reference scenario, the sum of reactive mercury emissions (Hg-P and Hg2+) accounted for 25.3% of the total global emissions; the regions/countries that have shares of reactive mercury emissions higher than 6% in total global reactive mercury are China+ (30.9%), India+ (12.5%) and

  16. Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Zhining; Williams, Allen; Huang, Ho-Chun; Caughey, Michael; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2007-04-01

    The relative contributions of projected future emissions and climate changes to U.S. surface ozone concentrations are investigated focusing on California, the Midwest, the Northeast, and Texas. By 2050 regional average ozone concentrations increase by 2-15% under the IPCC SRES A1Fi (``dirty'') scenario, and decrease by 4-12% under the B1 (relatively ``clean'') scenario. However, the magnitudes of ozone changes differ significantly between major metropolitan and rural areas. These ozone changes are dominated by the emissions changes in 61% area of the contiguous U.S. under the B1 scenario, but are largely determined by the projected climate changes in 46% area under the A1Fi scenario. In the ozone responses to climate changes, the biogenic emissions changes contribute strongly over the Northeast, moderately in the Midwest, and negligibly in other regions.

  17. B Stars with and without emission lines, parts 1 and 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Underhill, A. (Editor); Doazan, V. (Editor)

    1982-01-01

    The spectra for B stars for which emission lines occur not on the main sequence, but only among the supergiants, and those B stars for which the presence of emission in H ahlpa is considered to be a significant factor in delineating atmospheric structure are examined. The development of models that are compatible with all known facts about a star and with the laws of physics is also discussed.

  18. Thermal characteristics of multi-wavelength emission during a B8.3 flare occurred on July 04, 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awasthi, Arun Kumar; Sylwester, Barbara; Sylwester, Janusz; Jain, Rajmal

    2015-08-01

    We explore the temporal evolution of flare plasma parameters including temperature (T) - differential emission measure (DEM) relationship by analyzing high spectral and temporal cadence X-ray emission in 1.2-20 keV energy band, recorded by SphinX (Polish) and Solar X-ray Spectrometer (SOXS; Indian) instruments, during a B8.3 flare which occurred on July 04, 2009. SphinX records X-ray emission in 1.2-15 keV energy band with the temporal and spectral cadence as good as 6µs and 0.4 keV, respectively. On the other hand, SOXS provides X-ray observations in 4-25 keV energy band with the temporal and spectral resolution of 3s and 0.7 keV, respectively. In addition, we integrate co-temporal EUV line emission in 171, 194 and 284 angstrom obtained from STEREO mission in order to explore low-temperature response to the flare emission. In order to fit observed evolution of multi-wavelength emission during the flare, we incorporate multi-Gaussian and well-established Withbroe - Sylwester maximum likelihood DEM inversion algorithms. Thermal energetics are also estimated using geometrically corrected flaring loop structure obtained through EUV images of the active region from STEREO twin satellites. In addition, we also study the trigger and energy release scenario of this low-intensity class flare in terms of magnetic field as well as multi-wavelength emission.

  19. Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

    PubMed Central

    Takeshita, Takayuki

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them. PMID:21845172

  20. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

  1. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shaojian

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

  2. Carbon-11-Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography imaging of amyloid deposition in presenilin 1 mutation carriers.

    PubMed

    Knight, William D; Okello, Aren A; Ryan, Natalie S; Turkheimer, Federico E; Rodríguez Martinez de Llano, Sofia; Edison, Paul; Douglas, Jane; Fox, Nick C; Brooks, David J; Rossor, Martin N

    2011-01-01

    (11)Carbon-Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography studies have suggested early and prominent amyloid deposition in the striatum in presenilin 1 mutation carriers. This cross-sectional study examines the (11)Carbon-Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography imaging profiles of presymptomatic and mildly affected (mini-mental state examination ≥ 20) carriers of seven presenilin 1 mutations, comparing them with groups of controls and symptomatic sporadic Alzheimer's disease cases. Parametric ratio images representing (11)Carbon-Pittsburgh compound B retention from 60 to 90 min were created using the pons as a reference region and nine regions of interest were studied. We confirmed that increased amyloid load may be detected in presymptomatic presenilin 1 mutation carriers with (11)Carbon-Pittsburgh compound B positron emission tomography and that the pattern of retention is heterogeneous. Comparison of presenilin 1 and sporadic Alzheimer's disease groups revealed significantly greater thalamic retention in the presenilin 1 group and significantly greater frontotemporal retention in the sporadic Alzheimer's disease group. A few individuals with presenilin 1 mutations showed increased cerebellar (11)Carbon-Pittsburgh compound B retention suggesting that this region may not be as suitable a reference region in familial Alzheimer's disease.

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Santalla, Estela; Córdoba, Verónica; Blanco, Gabriel

    2013-08-01

    The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios--business as usual (BAU), and mitigation--and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of

  4. Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

    2016-04-01

    In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A

  5. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  6. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, Etsushi; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2014-09-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socioeconomic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above preindustrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high-fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full postprocess combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high-fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required; however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise, a conflict of land use with food production is inevitable.

  7. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    PubMed

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-12-01

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

  8. Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

  9. Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

    PubMed

    Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

    2014-12-16

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

  10. HCFC-142b emissions in China: An inventory for 2000 to 2050 basing on bottom-up and top-down methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Jiarui; Li, Li; Su, Shenshen; Hu, Jianxin; Wu, Jing; Wu, Yusheng; Fang, Xuekun

    2014-05-01

    1-Chloro-1,1-difluoroethane (HCFC-142b) is both ozone depleting substance included in the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) and potent greenhouse gas with high global warming potential. As one of the major HCFC-142b consumption and production countries in the world, China's control action will contribute to both mitigating climate change and protecting ozone layer. Estimating China's HCFC-142b emission is a crucial step for understanding its emission status, drawing up phasing-out plan and evaluating mitigation effect. Both the bottom-up and top-down method were adopted in this research to estimate HCFC-142b emissions from China. Results basing on different methods were compared to test the effectiveness of two methods and validate inventory's reliability. Firstly, a national bottom-up emission inventory of HCFC-142b for China during 2000-2012 was established based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the Montreal Protocol, showing that in contrast to the downward trend revealed by existing results, HCFC-142b emissions kept increasing from 0.1 kt/yr in 2000 to the peak of 14.4 kt/yr in 2012. Meanwhile a top-down emission estimation was also developed using interspecies correlation method. By correlating atmospheric mixing ratio data of HCFC-142b and reference substance HCFC-22 sampled from four representative cities (Beijing, Hangzhou, Lanzhou and Guangzhou, for northern, eastern, western and southern China, respectively), China's HCFC-142b emission in 2012 was calculated. It was 16.24(13.90-18.58) kt, equivalent to 1.06 kt ODP and 37 Tg CO2-eq, taking up 9.78% (ODP) of total HCFCs emission in China or 30.5% of global HCFC-142b emission. This result was 12.7% higher than that in bottom-up inventory. Possible explanations were discussed. The consistency of two results lend credit to methods effectiveness and results reliability. Finally, future HCFC-142b emission was projected to 2050

  11. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  12. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  13. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

    PubMed

    Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

    2009-02-01

    We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

  14. Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2018-04-01

    Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

  15. Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Amann, Markus; Cofala, Janusz; Streets, David G.

    2006-06-01

    We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies composition-climate model to an assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4, and sulfate at 2030. We compare four different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The projections encompass a wide range of possible man-made emissions changes. The A1B, B1, and CLE forecasts all suggest large increases in surface O3 and sulfate baseline pollution at tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially over the Indian subcontinent, where the pollution increases may be as large as 100%. The ranges of annual mean regional ground level O3 and sulfate changes across all scenarios are -10 to +30 ppbv and -1200 to +3000 pptv, respectively. Physical climate changes reduce future surface O3, but tend to increase ground level sulfate locally over North Africa because of an enhancement of aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. For all examined future scenarios the combined sum of the CH4, O3, and sulfate radiative forcings is positive, even for the MFR scenario, because of the large reduction in sulfate. For A1B the forcings are as much as half of that of the preindustrial to present-day forcing for each species. For MFR the sign of the forcing for each species is reversed with respect to the other scenarios. At 2030, global changes in climate-sensitive natural emissions of CH4 from wetlands, NOx from lightning, and dimethyl sulfide from the ocean appear to be small (<5%).

  16. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  17. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  18. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

  19. Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2010-12-01

    For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

  20. Induction of cytochromes P450 1A1 and 1B1 in human lung adenocarcinoma CL5 cells by frying-meat emission particulate.

    PubMed

    Wang, H-W; Chen, T-L; Yang, P-C; Ma, Y-C; Yu, C-C; Ueng, T-H

    2002-05-01

    The effect of airborne frying-meat emission particulate (FMEP) on cytochrome P450 (P450)-dependent monooxygenase was determined using human lung adenocarcinoma cell line CL5 treated with organic extract of FMEP prepared from beef, fish or pork. Treatment with fish FMEP extract caused greater increases of intracellular peroxide production and glutathione content than did beef and pork FMEP extracts. Treatment with 200 microg/ml beef, fish or pork FMEP extract for 6 h increased benzo[a]pyrene hydroxylase, 7-ethoxyresorufin and methoxyresorufin O-dealkylases activities in S9. Immunoblot analysis of S9 proteins from control cells and cells treated with FMEP extracts revealed that the airborne particulates increased proteins immunorelated to CYP1A1 and CYP1B1. Northern blot analysis of total cellular RNA from controls and cells treated with FMEP extracts showed that the cooking by-products increased the levels of CYP1A1 and CYP1B1 mRNA. Treatment with 1 microM dibenzo[a,h]anthracene for 6 h increased monooxygenase activities, CYP1A1 and CYP1B1 protein and mRNA levels in CL5 cells. Beef FMEP extract and dibenzo[a,h]anthracene also induced CYP1A1 and CYP1B1 in human lung carcinoma NCI-H322 cells. The present finding demonstrates that airborne particulates generated during the frying of beef, fish and pork can induce carcinogen-metabolizing CYP1A1 and CYP1B1 in the human lung-derived cell line CL5.

  1. Changes in atmospheric sulfur burdens and concentrations and resulting radiative forcings under IPCC SRES emission scenarios for 1990-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pham, M.; Boucher, O.; Hauglustaine, D.

    2005-03-01

    Simulations of the global sulfur cycle under the IPCC SRES scenarios have been performed. Sulfur dioxide and sulfate burdens, as well as the direct and first indirect radiative forcing (RF) by sulfate aerosols only, are presented for the period 1990 to 2100. By 2100, global sulfur emission rates decline everywhere in all scenarios. At that time, the anthropogenic sulfate burden ranges from 0.34 to 1.03 times the 1990 value of 0.47 Tg S. Direct and indirect global and annually mean RFs relative to the year 1990 are near 0 or positive (range of -0.07 to 0.28 Wm-2 and 0.01 to 0.38 Wm-2 for the direct and indirect effects, respectively). For reference these forcings amount respectively to -0.42 and -0.79 Wm-2 in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions (around 1750). Sulfur aerosols will therefore induce a smaller cooling effect in 2100 than in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions. For the period 1990 to 2100, the forcing efficiencies (computed relatively to 1990) are fairly constant for the direct effect (around -160 W (g sulfate)-1). The forcing efficiencies for the indirect effect are around -200 and -100 W (g sulfate)-1 for negative and positive burden differences, respectively. This is due to a shift in regional patterns of emissions and a saturation in the indirect effect. The simulated annually averaged SO2 concentrations for A1B scenario in 2020 are close to air quality objectives for public health in some parts of Africa and exceed these objectives in some parts of China and Korea. Moreover, sulfate deposition rates are estimated to increase by 200% from the present level in East and Southeast Asia. This shows that Asia may experience in the future sulfur-related environmental and human health problems as important as Europe and the United States did in the 1970s.

  2. Simulating emissions of 1,3-dichloropropene after soil fumigation under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Yates, S R; Ashworth, D J

    2018-04-15

    Soil fumigation is an important agricultural practice used to produce many vegetable and fruit crops. However, fumigating soil can lead to atmospheric emissions which can increase risks to human and environmental health. A complete understanding of the transport, fate, and emissions of fumigants as impacted by soil and environmental processes is needed to mitigate atmospheric emissions. Five large-scale field experiments were conducted to measure emission rates for 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-D), a soil fumigant commonly used in California. Numerical simulations of these experiments were conducted in predictive mode (i.e., no calibration) to determine if simulation could be used as a substitute for field experimentation to obtain information needed by regulators. The results show that the magnitude of the volatilization rate and the total emissions could be adequately predicted for these experiments, with the exception of a scenario where the field was periodically irrigated after fumigation. In addition, the timing of the daily peak 1,3-D emissions was not accurately predicted for these experiments due to the peak emission rates occurring during the night or early-morning hours. This study revealed that more comprehensive mathematical models (or adjustments to existing models) are needed to fully describe emissions of soil fumigants from field soils under typical agronomic conditions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Possible detection of an emission feature near 584 A in the direction of G191-B2B

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, James; Bowyer, Stuart; Jelinsky, Patrick

    1990-01-01

    A possible spectral emission feature is reported in the direction of the nearby hot white dwarf G191-B2B at 581.5 + or - 6 A with a significance of 3.8 sigma. This emission has been identified as He I 584.3 A. The emission cannot be due to local geocoronal emission or interplanetary backscatter of solar He I 584 A emission because the feature is not detected in a nearby sky exposure. Possible sources for this emission are examined, including the photosphere of G191-B2B, the comparison star G191-B2A, and a possible nebulosity near or around G191-B2B. The parameters required to explain the emission are derived for each case. All of these explanations require unexpected physical conditions; hence we believe this result must receive confirming verification despite the statistical likelihood of the detection.

  4. Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, T.

    2015-12-01

    A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

  5. The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

  6. Alternate-Fueled Combustor-Sector Performance. Parts A and B; (A) Combustor Performance; (B) Combustor Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shouse, D. T.; Hendricks, R. C.; Lynch, A.; Frayne, C. W.; Stutrud, J. S.; Corporan, E.; Hankins, T.

    2012-01-01

    Alternate aviation fuels for military or commercial use are required to satisfy MIL-DTL-83133F(2008) or ASTM D 7566 (2010) standards, respectively, and are classified as "drop-in" fuel replacements. To satisfy legacy issues, blends to 50% alternate fuel with petroleum fuels are certified individually on the basis of processing and assumed to be feedstock agnostic. Adherence to alternate fuels and fuel blends requires "smart fueling systems" or advanced fuel-flexible systems, including combustors and engines, without significant sacrifice in performance or emissions requirements. This paper provides preliminary performance (Part A) and emissions and particulates (Part B) combustor sector data. The data are for nominal inlet conditions at 225 psia and 800 F (1.551 MPa and 700 K), for synthetic-paraffinic-kerosene- (SPK-) type (Fisher-Tropsch (FT)) fuel and blends with JP-8+100 relative to JP-8+100 as baseline fueling. Assessments are made of the change in combustor efficiency, wall temperatures, emissions, and luminosity with SPK of 0%, 50%, and 100% fueling composition at 3% combustor pressure drop. The performance results (Part A) indicate no quantifiable differences in combustor efficiency, a general trend to lower liner and higher core flow temperatures with increased FT fuel blends. In general, emissions data (Part B) show little differences, but with percent increase in FT-SPK-type fueling, particulate emissions and wall temperatures are less than with baseline JP-8. High-speed photography illustrates both luminosity and combustor dynamic flame characteristics.

  7. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  8. Detection of very high energy gamma-ray emission from the gravitationally lensed blazar QSO B0218+357 with the MAGIC telescopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahnen, M. L.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.; Antoranz, P.; Arcaro, C.; Babic, A.; Banerjee, B.; Bangale, P.; Barres de Almeida, U.; Barrio, J. A.; Becerra González, J.; Bednarek, W.; Bernardini, E.; Berti, A.; Biasuzzi, B.; Biland, A.; Blanch, O.; Bonnefoy, S.; Bonnoli, G.; Borracci, F.; Bretz, T.; Buson, S.; Carosi, A.; Chatterjee, A.; Clavero, R.; Colin, P.; Colombo, E.; Contreras, J. L.; Cortina, J.; Covino, S.; Da Vela, P.; Dazzi, F.; De Angelis, A.; De Lotto, B.; de Oña Wilhelmi, E.; Di Pierro, F.; Doert, M.; Domínguez, A.; Dominis Prester, D.; Dorner, D.; Doro, M.; Einecke, S.; Eisenacher Glawion, D.; Elsaesser, D.; Engelkemeier, M.; Fallah Ramazani, V.; Fernández-Barral, A.; Fidalgo, D.; Fonseca, M. V.; Font, L.; Frantzen, K.; Fruck, C.; Galindo, D.; García López, R. J.; Garczarczyk, M.; Garrido Terrats, D.; Gaug, M.; Giammaria, P.; Godinović, N.; Gora, D.; Guberman, D.; Hadasch, D.; Hahn, A.; Hayashida, M.; Herrera, J.; Hose, J.; Hrupec, D.; Hughes, G.; Idec, W.; Kodani, K.; Konno, Y.; Kubo, H.; Kushida, J.; La Barbera, A.; Lelas, D.; Lindfors, E.; Lombardi, S.; Longo, F.; López, M.; López-Coto, R.; Majumdar, P.; Makariev, M.; Mallot, K.; Maneva, G.; Manganaro, M.; Mannheim, K.; Maraschi, L.; Marcote, B.; Mariotti, M.; Martínez, M.; Mazin, D.; Menzel, U.; Miranda, J. M.; Mirzoyan, R.; Moralejo, A.; Moretti, E.; Nakajima, D.; Neustroev, V.; Niedzwiecki, A.; Nievas Rosillo, M.; Nilsson, K.; Nishijima, K.; Noda, K.; Nogués, L.; Paiano, S.; Palacio, J.; Palatiello, M.; Paneque, D.; Paoletti, R.; Paredes, J. M.; Paredes-Fortuny, X.; Pedaletti, G.; Peresano, M.; Perri, L.; Persic, M.; Poutanen, J.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Prandini, E.; Puljak, I.; Garcia, J. R.; Reichardt, I.; Rhode, W.; Ribó, M.; Rico, J.; Saito, T.; Satalecka, K.; Schroeder, S.; Schweizer, T.; Shore, S. N.; Sillanpää, A.; Sitarek, J.; Snidaric, I.; Sobczynska, D.; Stamerra, A.; Strzys, M.; Surić, T.; Takalo, L.; Tavecchio, F.; Temnikov, P.; Terzić, T.; Tescaro, D.; Teshima, M.; Torres, D. F.; Toyama, T.; Treves, A.; Vanzo, G.; Verguilov, V.; Vovk, I.; Ward, J. E.; Will, M.; Wu, M. H.; Zanin, R.; Desiante, R.

    2016-11-01

    Context. QSO B0218+357 is a gravitationally lensed blazar located at a redshift of 0.944. The gravitational lensing splits the emitted radiation into two components that are spatially indistinguishable by gamma-ray instruments, but separated by a 10-12 day delay. In July 2014, QSO B0218+357 experienced a violent flare observed by the Fermi-LAT and followed by the MAGIC telescopes. Aims: The spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 can give information on the energetics of z 1 very high energy gamma-ray sources. Moreover the gamma-ray emission can also be used as a probe of the extragalactic background light at z 1. Methods: MAGIC performed observations of QSO B0218+357 during the expected arrival time of the delayed component of the emission. The MAGIC and Fermi-LAT observations were accompanied by quasi-simultaneous optical data from the KVA telescope and X-ray observations by Swift-XRT. We construct a multiwavelength spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 and use it to model the source. The GeV and sub-TeV data obtained by Fermi-LAT and MAGIC are used to set constraints on the extragalactic background light. Results: Very high energy gamma-ray emission was detected from the direction of QSO B0218+357 by the MAGIC telescopes during the expected time of arrival of the trailing component of the flare, making it the farthest very high energy gamma-ray source detected to date. The observed emission spans the energy range from 65 to 175 GeV. The combined MAGIC and Fermi-LAT spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 is consistent with current extragalactic background light models. The broadband emission can be modeled in the framework of a two-zone external Compton scenario, where the GeV emission comes from an emission region in the jet, located outside the broad line region.

  9. Detection of very high energy gamma-ray emission from the gravitationally lensed blazar QSO B0218+357 with the MAGIC telescopes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ahnen, M. L.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.

    QSO B0218+357 is a gravitationally lensed blazar located at a redshift of 0.944. The gravitational lensing splits the emitted radiation into two components that are spatially indistinguishable by gamma-ray instruments, but separated by a 10–12 day delay. In July 2014, QSO B0218+357 experienced a violent flare observed by the Fermi-LAT and followed by the MAGIC telescopes. The spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 can give information on the energetics of z ~ 1 very high energy gamma-ray sources. Furthermore, the gamma-ray emission can also be used as a probe of the extragalactic background light at z ~ 1. MAGIC performedmore » observations of QSO B0218+357 during the expected arrival time of the delayed component of the emission. The MAGIC and Fermi-LAT observations were accompanied by quasi-simultaneous optical data from the KVA telescope and X-ray observations by Swift-XRT. We construct a multiwavelength spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 and use it to model the source. The GeV and sub-TeV data obtained by Fermi-LAT and MAGIC are used to set constraints on the extragalactic background light. We detected very high energy gamma-ray emission from the direction of QSO B0218+357 by the MAGIC telescopes during the expected time of arrival of the trailing component of the flare, making it the farthest very high energy gamma-ray source detected to date. We also observed emission spans the energy range from 65 to 175 GeV. The combined MAGIC and Fermi-LAT spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 is consistent with current extragalactic background light models. The broadband emission can be modeled in the framework of a two-zone external Compton scenario, where the GeV emission comes from an emission region in the jet, located outside the broad line region.« less

  10. Detection of very high energy gamma-ray emission from the gravitationally lensed blazar QSO B0218+357 with the MAGIC telescopes

    DOE PAGES

    Ahnen, M. L.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.; ...

    2016-11-04

    QSO B0218+357 is a gravitationally lensed blazar located at a redshift of 0.944. The gravitational lensing splits the emitted radiation into two components that are spatially indistinguishable by gamma-ray instruments, but separated by a 10–12 day delay. In July 2014, QSO B0218+357 experienced a violent flare observed by the Fermi-LAT and followed by the MAGIC telescopes. The spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 can give information on the energetics of z ~ 1 very high energy gamma-ray sources. Furthermore, the gamma-ray emission can also be used as a probe of the extragalactic background light at z ~ 1. MAGIC performedmore » observations of QSO B0218+357 during the expected arrival time of the delayed component of the emission. The MAGIC and Fermi-LAT observations were accompanied by quasi-simultaneous optical data from the KVA telescope and X-ray observations by Swift-XRT. We construct a multiwavelength spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 and use it to model the source. The GeV and sub-TeV data obtained by Fermi-LAT and MAGIC are used to set constraints on the extragalactic background light. We detected very high energy gamma-ray emission from the direction of QSO B0218+357 by the MAGIC telescopes during the expected time of arrival of the trailing component of the flare, making it the farthest very high energy gamma-ray source detected to date. We also observed emission spans the energy range from 65 to 175 GeV. The combined MAGIC and Fermi-LAT spectral energy distribution of QSO B0218+357 is consistent with current extragalactic background light models. The broadband emission can be modeled in the framework of a two-zone external Compton scenario, where the GeV emission comes from an emission region in the jet, located outside the broad line region.« less

  11. Use of Radon for Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models: Sensitivity to Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gupta, Mohan L.; Douglass, Anne R.; Kawa, S. Randolph; Pawson, Steven

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents comparative analyses of atmospheric radon (Rn) distributions simulated using different emission scenarios and the observations. Results indicate that the model generally reproduces observed distributions of Rn but there are some biases in the model related to differences in large-scale and convective transport. Simulations presented here use an off-line three-dimensional chemical transport model driven by assimilated winds and two scenarios of Rn fluxes (atom/cm s) from ice-free land surfaces: (A) globally uniform flux of 1.0, and (B) uniform flux of 1.0 between 60 deg. S and 30 deg. N followed by a sharp linear decrease to 0.2 at 70 deg. N. We considered an additional scenario (C) where Rn emissions for case A were uniformly reduced by 28%. Results show that case A overpredicts observed Rn distributions in both hemispheres. Simulated northern hemispheric (NH) Rn distributions from cases B and C compare better with the observations, but are not discernible from each other. In the southern hemisphere, surface Rn distributions from case C compare better with the observations. We performed a synoptic scale source-receptor analysis for surface Rn to locate regions with ratios B/A and B/C less than 0.5. Considering an uncertainty in regional Rn emissions of a factor of two, our analysis indicates that additional measurements of surface Rn particularly during April-October and north of 50 deg. N over the Pacific as well as Atlantic regions would make it possible to determine if the proposed latitude gradient in Rn emissions is superior to a uniform flux scenario.

  12. The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

  13. Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  14. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  15. Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    Thomason, Study Co-Lead Zachary S. Rabold, Sub-Task Lead Ylli Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario... Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual iii Preface This document reports the...vii Appendices A. Identifying Scenario Components...........................................................A-1 B . Acronyms

  16. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  17. Improving HJ-1B IRS land surface temperature product using ASTER global emissivity database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, H.; Hu, T.; Meng, X.; Yongming, D.; Cao, B.; Liu, Q.

    2015-12-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is a key parameter for hydrological, meteorological, climatological and environmental studies. Currently many operational LST products have been generated using European and American satellite data, i.e., the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). However, few LST product has been produced using Chinese satellite data. Thus, the objective of this study is to generate reliable LST product using Chinese HJ-1B satellite data. The HJ-1B satellite of China, were launched on September 6, 2008, which are used for disaster and environment monitoring. IRS (Infrared Scanner) is one of the key instruments onboard HJ-1B satellite, it can scan the earth every four days, has four spectral bands ranging from the near-infrared to thermal infrared bands (band 1 0.75 - 1.10μm, band 2 1.55-1.75μm, MIR band 3 3.50 - 3.90μm, band 4 10.5-12.5μm) with 720 km swath. It scans ±29° from nadir and the spatial resolution for band1-3 is 150m and 300m for band4. In this study, a single-channel parametric model (SC-PM) algorithm were used to produce 300m LST product from HJ-1B IRS data. The NCEP atmospheric profiles and a parametric model were used for atmospheric correction. In order to improve the accuracy of the land surface emissivity (LSE), the 1km ASTER Global Emissivity Database (GED) and self-developed 5-day 1km vegetation cover product were used for estimating the LSE based on the Vegetation Cover Method. Two years of HJ-1B IRS LST product in Heihe River basin (Gansu province, China) from June 2012 to June 2014 were generated. The LST products were evaluated against ground observations in an arid area of northwest China during the Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (HiWATER) experiment. Four barren surface sites and ten vegetated sites were chosen for the evaluation. The results show that the developed HJ-1B IRS

  18. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  20. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  1. Projection of global terrestrial nitrous oxide emission using future scenarios of climate and land-use management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inatomi, M. I.; Ito, A.

    2016-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O), with a centennial mean residence time in the atmosphere, is one of the most remarkable greenhouse gases. Because natural and anthropogenic emissions make comparable contributions, we need to take account of different sources of N2O such as natural soils and fertilizer in croplands to predict the future emission change and to discuss its mitigation. In this study, we conduct a series of simulations of future change in nitrous oxide emission from terrestrial ecosystems using a process-based model, VISIT. We assume a couple of scenarios of future climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, fertilizer input, and land-use change. In particular, we develop a new scenario of cropland fertilizer input on the basis of changes in crop productivity and fertilizer production cost. Expansion of biofuel crop production is considered but in a simplified manner (e.g., a specific fraction of pasture conversion to biofuel cultivation). Regional and temporal aspects of N2O emission are investigated and compared with previous studies. Finally, we make discussions, on the basis of simulated results, about the high-end of N2O emission, mitigation options, and impact of fertilizer input.

  2. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  3. Future emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millar, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Grubb, M.; Rogelj, J.; Skeie, R. B.; Friedlingstein, P.; Forster, P.; Frame, D. J.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    The stated aim of the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement is `holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C'. We show that emissions reductions proportional to those achieved in an ambitious mitigation scenario, RCP2.6, but beginning in 2017, give a median estimated peak warming of 1.5°C, with a likely (66% probability) range of uncertainty of 1.2-2.0°C. Such a scenario would be approximately consistent with the most ambitious interpretation of the 2030 emissions pledges, but requires reduction rates exceeding 0.3GtC/yr/yr after 2030. A steady reduction at less than half this rate would achieve the same temperature outcome if initiated in 2020. Limiting total CO2 emissions after 2015 to 200GtC would limit future warming to likely less than 0.6°C above present, consistent with 1.5°C above pre-industrial, based on the distribution of responses of the CMIP5 Earth System, but the CMIP5 simulations do not correspond to scenarios that aim to limit warming to such low levels. If future CO2 emissions are successfully adapted to the emerging climate response so as to limit warming in 2100 to 0.6°C above present, and non-CO2 emissions follow the ambitious RCP2.6 scenario, then we estimate that resulting CO2 emissions will unlikely be restricted to less than 250GtC given current uncertainties in climate system response, although still-poorly-modelled carbon cycle feedbacks, such as release from permafrost, may encroach on this budget. Even under a perfectly successful adaptive mitigation regime, emissions consistent with limiting warming to 0.6°C above present are unlikely to be greater than 500GtC.These estimates suggest the 1.5°C goal may not yet be geophysically insurmountable but will nevertheless require, at minimum, the full implementation of the most ambitious interpretation of the Paris pledges followed by accelerated and more fundamental changes in our

  4. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

    2016-04-01

    Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of

  5. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  6. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    PubMed Central

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

  7. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

  8. Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

    PubMed Central

    Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

    2017-01-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

  9. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    PubMed

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  10. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Early UV emission from disc-originated matter (DOM) in Type Ia supernovae in the double-degenerate scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levanon, Naveh; Soker, Noam

    2017-09-01

    We show that the blue and UV excess emission in the first few days of some Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be accounted in the double-degenerate (DD) scenario by the collision of the SN ejecta with circumstellar matter that was blown by the accretion disc formed during the merger process of the two white dwarfs (WDs). We assume that in cases of excess early light, the disc blows the circumstellar matter, that we term disc-originated matter (DOM), hours to days before explosion. To perform our analysis, we first provide a model-based definition for early excess light, replacing the definition of excess light relative to a power-law fit to the rising luminosity. We then examine the light curves of the SNe Ia iPTF14atg and SN 2012cg, and find that the collision of the ejecta with a DOM in the frame of the DD scenario can account for their early excess emission. Thus, early excess light does not necessarily imply the presence of a stellar companion in the frame of the single-degenerate scenario. Our findings further increase the variety of phenomena that the DD scenario can account for, and emphasize the need to consider all different SN Ia scenarios when interpreting observations.

  12. OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

    2015-07-03

    The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  13. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  14. Study of infrared emission spectroscopy for the B{sup 1}Δ{sub g}–A{sup 1}Π{sub u} and B{sup ′1}Σ{sub g}{sup +}–A{sup 1}Π{sub u} systems of C{sub 2}

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chen, Wang, E-mail: sc19321@s.okayama-u.ac.jp, E-mail: okakent@okayama-u.ac.jp, E-mail: pbernath@odu.edu; Kawaguchi, Kentarou, E-mail: sc19321@s.okayama-u.ac.jp, E-mail: okakent@okayama-u.ac.jp, E-mail: pbernath@odu.edu; Tang, Jian, E-mail: jtang@okayama-u.ac.jp

    Thirteen bands for the B{sup 1}Δ{sub g}–A{sup 1}Π{sub u} system and eleven bands for the B{sup ′1}Σ{sub g}{sup +}–A{sup 1}Π{sub u} system of C{sub 2} were identified in the Fourier transform infrared emission spectra of hydrocarbon discharges. The B{sup ′1}Σ{sub g}{sup +} v = 4 and the B{sup 1}Δ{sub g} v = 6, 7, and 8 vibrational levels involved in nine bands were studied for the first time. A direct global analysis with Dunham parameters was carried out satisfactorily for the B{sup 1}Δ{sub g}–A{sup 1}Π{sub u} system except for a small perturbation in the B{sup 1}Δ{sub g} v = 6more » level. The calculated rovibrational term energies up to B{sup 1}Δ{sub g} v = 12 showed that the level crossing between the B{sup 1}Δ{sub g} and d{sup 3}Π{sub g} states is responsible for many of the prominent perturbations in the Swan system observed previously. Nineteen forbidden transitions of the B{sup 1}Δ{sub g}–a{sup 3}Π{sub u} transition were identified and the off-diagonal spin-orbit interaction constant A{sub dB} between d{sup 3}Π{sub g} and B{sup 1}Δ{sub g} was derived as 8.3(1) cm{sup −1}. For the B{sup ′1}Σ{sub g}{sup +}–A{sup 1}Π{sub u} system, only individual band analyses for each vibrational level in the B′{sup 1}Σ{sub g}{sup +} state could be done satisfactorily and Dunham parameters obtained from these effective parameters showed that the anharmonic vibrational constant ω{sub e}x{sub e} is anomalously small (nearly zero). Inspection of the RKR (Rydberg-Klein-Rees) potential curves for the B{sup ′1}Σ{sub g}{sup +} and X{sup 1}Σ{sub g}{sup +} states revealed that an avoided crossing or nearly avoided crossing may occur around 30 000 cm{sup −1}, which is responsible for the anomalous molecular constants in these two states.« less

  15. Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320

  16. Broad N2H+ Emission toward the Protostellar Shock L1157-B1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Codella, C.; Viti, S.; Ceccarelli, C.; Lefloch, B.; Benedettini, M.; Busquet, G.; Caselli, P.; Fontani, F.; Gómez-Ruiz, A.; Podio, L.; Vasta, M.

    2013-10-01

    We present the first detection of N2H+ toward a low-mass protostellar outflow, namely, the L1157-B1 shock, at ~0.1 pc from the protostellar cocoon. The detection was obtained with the IRAM 30 m antenna. We observed emission at 93 GHz due to the J = 1-0 hyperfine lines. Analysis of this emission coupled with HIFI CHESS multiline CO observations leads to the conclusion that the observed N2H+(1-0) line originated from the dense (>=105 cm-3) gas associated with the large (20''-25'') cavities opened by the protostellar wind. We find an N2H+ column density of a few 1012 cm-2 corresponding to an abundance of (2-8) × 10-9. The N2H+ abundance can be matched by a model of quiescent gas evolved for more than 104 yr, i.e., for more than the shock kinematical age (sime2000 yr). Modeling of C-shocks confirms that the abundance of N2H+ is not increased by the passage of the shock. In summary, N2H+ is a fossil record of the pre-shock gas, formed when the density of the gas was around 104 cm-3, and then further compressed and accelerated by the shock.

  17. Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios on Hydrology in the Mekong Basins and their Effects on Irrigation and Hydropower

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeo, L. K.; Wang, C.

    2016-12-01

    Water distribution is closely linked to food and energy security. Aerosol emissions affect cloud properties, as well as atmospheric stability, changing the distribution of precipitation. These changes in precipitation causes changes in water availability, affecting food production and energy generation. These impacts are especially important in Southeast Asia, which uses up to 90% of their water supply for irrigation. In addition, the Mekong river, the largest inland fishery in the world, has 30,000MW of hydropower potential in its lower reaches alone. Modelling the impacts of these anthropogenic emission scenarios will allow us to better understand their downstream effects on hydrology, and any potential feedbacks it may have on future aerosol emissions. In the first step, we run the WRF model using FNL reanlaysis data from 2014 and 2015 to generate the WRF-hydro model forcing inputs. We then run the WRF-hydro model and compare the output with current measurements of soil moisture, river flow, and precipitation. Secondly, we run the WRF-Chem model with various anthropogenic emission scenarios and put the results through the WRF-hydro model to determine the impact of these emission scenarios on soil moisture and river flow. The scenarios include enhanced anthropogenic emissions in Asia, anologous to widespread adoption of coal burning as an energy source in Asia. Anthropogenic emissions have the potential to affect energy policy in countries affected by these emissions. When hydropower generation is affected by changes in precipitation, the affected countries will have to switch to alternative sources of fuel to meet their energy needs. These sources typically result in changes in anthropogenic aerosol emisssions, especially if coal is used as an alternative source of energy.

  18. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  19. The impact of aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hienola, Anca; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O’Donnell, Declan; Korhonen, Hannele; Damon Matthews, H.; Laaksonen, Ari

    2018-04-01

    To assess the impact of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction on limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, two climate modeling approaches have been used (MAGICC6, and a combination of ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the UVic ESCM), with two aerosol control pathways under two greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction scenarios. We found that aerosol emission reductions associated with CO2 co-emissions had a significant warming effect during the first half of the century and that the near-term warming is dependent on the pace of aerosol emission reduction. The modeling results show that these aerosol emission reductions account for about 0.5 °C warming relative to 2015, on top of the 1 °C above pre-industrial levels that were already reached in 2015. We found also that the decreases in aerosol emissions lead to different decreases in the magnitude of the aerosol radiative forcing in the two models. By 2100, the aerosol forcing is projected by ECHAM–UVic to diminish in magnitude by 0.96 W m‑2 and by MAGICC6 by 0.76 W m‑2 relative to 2000. Despite this discrepancy, the climate responses in terms of temperature are similar. Aggressive aerosol control due to air quality legislation affects the peak temperature, which is 0.2 °C–0.3 °C above the 1.5 °C limit even within the most ambitious CO2/GHG reduction scenario. At the end of the century, the temperature differences between aerosol reduction scenarios in the context of ambitious CO2 mitigation are negligible.

  20. Evolution of the US energy system and related emissions under varying social and technological development paradigms: Plausible scenarios for use in robust decision making.

    PubMed

    Brown, Kristen E; Hottle, Troy Alan; Bandyopadhyay, Rubenka; Babaee, Samaneh; Dodder, Rebecca Susanne; Kaplan, Pervin Ozge; Lenox, Carol; Loughlin, Dan

    2018-06-21

    The energy system is the primary source of air pollution. Thus, evolution of the energy system into the future will affect society's ability to maintain air quality. Anticipating this evolution is difficult because of inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply Scenario Planning to address this uncertainty, developing four very different visions of the future. Stakeholder engagement suggested technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are critical and uncertain factors for determining future emissions. Combining transformative and static assumptions about these factors yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. EPA MARKAL model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to present, even without additional policies. Emission caps, such as the Cross State Air Pollution Rule, are most effective at protecting against future emission increases. An important outcome of this work is the scenario implementation approach, which uses technology-specific discount rates to encourage scenario-specific technology and fuel choices. End-use energy demands are modified to approximate societal changes. This implementation allows the model to respond to perturbations in manners consistent with each scenario.

  1. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE PAGES

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  2. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  3. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2013-09-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to

  4. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to

  5. 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Langholtz, Matthew H.

    With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report:more » Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other

  6. Hadronic decays of Ba1(1260 )b1(1235 ) in the perturbative QCD approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jing, Hao-Yang; Liu, Xin; Xiao, Zhen-Jun

    2017-12-01

    We calculate the branching ratios and polarization fractions of the Ba1b1 decays in the perturbative QCD(pQCD) approach at leading order, where a1(b1) stands for the axial-vector a1(1260 )[b1(1235 )] state. By combining the phenomenological analyses with the perturbative calculations, we find the following results: (a) the large decay rates around 10-5 to 10-6 of the Ba1b1 decays dominated by the longitudinal polarization(except for the B+→b1+a10 mode) are predicted and basically consistent with those in the QCD factorization(QCDF) within errors, which are expected to be tested by the Large Hadron Collider and Belle-II experiments. The large B0→a10b10 branching ratio could provide hints to help explore the mechanism of the color-suppressed decays. (b) the rather different QCD behaviors between the a1 and b1 mesons result in the destructive(constructive) contributions in the nonfactorizable spectator diagrams with a1(b1) emission. Therefore, an interesting pattern of the branching ratios appears for the color-suppressed B0→a10a10,a10b10, and b10b10 modes in the pQCD approach, BR (B0→b10b10)>BR (B0→a10b10)≳BR (B0→a10a10), which is different from BR (B0→b10b10)˜BR (B0→a10b10)≳BR (B0→a10a10) in the QCDF and would be verified at future experiments. (c) the large naive factorization breaking effects are observed in these Ba1b1 decays. Specifically, the large nonfactorizable spectator(weak annihilation) amplitudes contribute to the B0→b1+a1-(B+→a1+b10andB+→b1+a10) mode(s), which demand confirmations via the precise measurements. Furthermore, the different phenomenologies shown among Ba1b1, Ba1a1, and Bb1b1 decays are also expected to be tested stringently, which could shed light on the typical QCD dynamics involved in these modes, even further distinguish those two popular pQCD and QCDF approaches.

  7. Possible Mg II emission in B stars observed from Copernicus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kondo, Y.; Whaley, R. S.; Modisette, J. L.; Dufour, R. J.

    1976-01-01

    Four B stars, Alpha Vir, Beta Cen, Alpha Gru, and Beta Lib, were observed with the Copernicus spectrometer at a resolution of 0.1 A in order to investigate the presence of chromospheric emission. Emission was observed in Beta Cen and Alpha Gru, while the results for Alpha Vir and Beta Lib were inconclusive.

  8. Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local

  9. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  10. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  11. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

  12. Methane emission estimation from landfills in Korea (1978-2004): quantitative assessment of a new approach.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyun-Sun; Yi, Seung-Muk

    2009-01-01

    Quantifying methane emission from landfills is important to evaluating measures for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To quantify GHG emissions and identify sensitive parameters for their measurement, a new assessment approach consisting of six different scenarios was developed using Tier 1 (mass balance method) and Tier 2 (the first-order decay method) methodologies for GHG estimation from landfills, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Methane emissions using Tier 1 correspond to trends in disposed waste amount, whereas emissions from Tier 2 gradually increase as disposed waste decomposes over time. The results indicate that the amount of disposed waste and the decay rate for anaerobic decomposition were decisive parameters for emission estimation using Tier 1 and Tier 2. As for the different scenarios, methane emissions were highest under Scope 1 (scenarios I and II), in which all landfills in Korea were regarded as one landfill. Methane emissions under scenarios III, IV, and V, which separated the dissimilated fraction of degradable organic carbon (DOC(F)) by waste type and/or revised the methane correction factor (MCF) by waste layer, were underestimated compared with scenarios II and III. This indicates that the methodology of scenario I, which has been used in most previous studies, may lead to an overestimation of methane emissions. Additionally, separate DOC(F) and revised MCF were shown to be important parameters for methane emission estimation from landfills, and revised MCF by waste layer played an important role in emission variations. Therefore, more precise information on each landfill and careful determination of parameter values and characteristics of disposed waste in Korea should be used to accurately estimate methane emissions from landfills.

  13. Developing a dynamic life cycle greenhouse gas emission inventory for wood construction for two different end-of-life scenarios

    Treesearch

    Richard D. Bergman; James Salazar; Scott Bowe

    2012-01-01

    Static life cycle assessment does not fully describe the carbon footprint of construction wood because of carbon changes in the forest and product pools over time. This study developed a dynamic greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory approach using US Forest Service and life-cycle data to estimate GHG emissions on construction wood for two different end-of-life scenarios....

  14. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  15. Possible Mg ii emission in B stars observed from Copernicus

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kondo, Y.; Modisette, J.L.; Dufour, R.J.

    1976-05-15

    Four B stars, ..cap alpha.. Vir, ..beta.. Cen, ..cap alpha.. Gru, and ..beta.. Lib, were observed with the Copernicus Princeton Telescope Spectrometer at a resolution of 0.1 A in order to investigate the presence of chromospheric emission. Emission was observed in ..beta.. Cen and ..cap alpha.. Gru, while the results for ..cap alpha.. Vir and ..beta.. Lib were inconclusive. (AIP)

  16. PULMONARY AND SYSTEMIC EFFECTS OF ZINC-CONTAINING EMISSION PARTICLES IN THREE RAT STRAINS: MULTIPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract
    Pulmonary and Systemic Effects of Zinc-Containing Emission Particles in Three Rat Strains: Multiple Exposure Scenarios. Kodavanti, U. P., Schladweiler, M. C. J., Ledbetter, A. D., Hauser, R.*, Christiani, D. C.*, McGee, J., Richards, J. R., and Costa, D. L. (2002)....

  17. The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

    2008-09-01

    This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  18. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land

    PubMed Central

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-01-01

    Abstract The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land‐use change (LUC). Land‐based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI‐Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land‐use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI‐Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low‐emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  19. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-03-01

    The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  20. Scenarios reducing greenhouse gas emission from motor vehicles in State University of Malang

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustin, I. W.; Meidiana, C.

    2018-04-01

    State University of Malang (UM) is one of the universities in Malang city. It has the second largest number of student after Brawijaya University (UB) with the growing number of students each year, resulting in increase the amount of motorized vehicle usage on campus. The State University of Malang condition shows the number of motorcycles in the provided parking area exceeded the capacity, causing the emergence of the improperly parking area. The condition causes the increase of mileage for vehicles that do not get a parking space. They must find and move to another parking area were still empty. The movement to another parking area resulted in the increase of exhaust emissions from motorized vehicles into the air. The main purpose of the research was to create alternative scenario of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the State University of Malang. Alternative emission reduction based on strategies of Avoid-Shift-Improve (A-S-I), and the importance level of alternative determined with Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA). The result showed that selected alternative in emission reduction with the highest score of 40 per cent was centralized parking management.

  1. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to includemore » alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.« less

  2. A combined plant and reaction chamber setup to investigate the effect of pollution and UV-B radiation on biogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timkovsky, J.; Gankema, P.; Pierik, R.; Holzinger, R.

    2012-12-01

    Biogenic emissions account for almost 90% of total non-methane organic carbon emissions in the atmosphere. The goal of this project is to study the effect of pollution (ozone, NOx) and UV radiation on the emission of real plants. We have designed and built a setup where we combine plant chambers with a reaction chamber (75L volume) allowing the addition of pollutants at different locations. The main analytical tool is a PTR-TOF-MS instrument that can be optionally coupled with a GC system for improved compound identification. The setup is operational since March 2012 and first measurements indicate interesting results, three types of experiments will be presented: 1. Ozonolysis of b-pinene. In this experiment the reaction chamber was flushed with air containing b-pinene at approximate levels of 50 nmol/mol. After ~40 min b-pinene levels reached equilibrium in the reaction chamber and a constant supply of ozone was provided. Within 30 minutes this resulted in a 10 nmol/mol decrease of b-pinene levels in accordance with a reaction rate constant of 1.5*10-17 cm3molec-1s-1 and a residence time of 10 minutes in the reaction chamber. In addition we observed known oxidation products such as formaldehyde, acetone, and nopinone the molar yields of which were also in accordance with reported values. 2. Ozonolysis of biogenic emissions from tomato plants. The air containing the emissions from tomato plants was supplied to the reaction chamber. After adding ozone we observed the decrease of monoterpene concentrations inside the reaction chamber. The observed decrease is consistent for online PTR-MS and GC/PTR-MS measurements. Several ozonolysis products have been observed in the chamber. 3. The effect of UV-B radiation on biogenic emissions of tomato plants. Tomato plants were exposed to UV-B radiation and their emissions measured during and after the treatment. We observed significant changes in the emissions of volatile organic compounds, with specific compounds increasing

  3. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P. G.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

    2012-11-01

    Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C). We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950-2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is

  4. Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; Lei, H.; Wuebbles, D. J.

    2014-10-01

    A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6-10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20-50% in A1B and positive 20-40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15-50% and 10-30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from -10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.

  5. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  6. Ratcheting ambition to limit warming to 1.5 °C–trade-offs between emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Christian; Siegel, Lori S.; Johnston, Eleanor; Jones, Andrew P.; Sterman, John

    2018-06-01

    Mitigation scenarios to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or less in 2100 often rely on large amounts of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which carry significant potential social, environmental, political and economic risks. A precautionary approach to scenario creation is therefore indicated. This letter presents the results of such a precautionary modelling exercise in which the models C-ROADS and En-ROADS were used to generate a series of 1.5 °C mitigation scenarios that apply increasingly stringent constraints on the scale and type of CDR available. This allows us to explore the trade-offs between near-term stringency of emission reductions and assumptions about future availability of CDR. In particular, we find that regardless of CDR assumptions, near-term ambition increase (‘ratcheting’) is required for any 1.5 °C pathway, making this letter timely for the facilitative, or Talanoa, dialogue to be conducted by the UNFCCC in 2018. By highlighting the difference between net and gross reduction rates, often obscured in scenarios, we find that mid-term gross CO2 emission reduction rates in scenarios with CDR constraints increase to levels without historical precedence. This in turn highlights, in addition to the need to substantially increase CO2 reduction rates, the need to improve emission reductions for non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Further, scenarios in which all or part of the CDR is implemented as non-permanent storage exhibit storage loss emissions, which partly offset CDR, highlighting the importance of differentiating between net and gross CDR in scenarios. We find in some scenarios storage loss trending to similar values as gross CDR, indicating that gross CDR would have to be maintained simply to offset the storage losses of CO2 sequestered earlier, without any additional net climate benefit.

  7. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

  8. Microscale traffic simulation and emission estimation in a heavily trafficked roundabout in Madrid (Spain).

    PubMed

    Quaassdorff, Christina; Borge, Rafael; Pérez, Javier; Lumbreras, Julio; de la Paz, David; de Andrés, Juan Manuel

    2016-10-01

    This paper presents the evaluation of emissions from vehicle operations in a domain of 300m×300m covering a complex urban roundabout with high traffic density in Madrid. Micro-level simulation was successfully applied to estimate the emissions on a scale of meters. Two programs were used: i) VISSIM to simulate the traffic on the square and to compute velocity-time profiles; and ii) VERSIT+micro through ENVIVER that uses VISSIM outputs to compute the related emissions at vehicle level. Data collection was achieved by a measurement campaign obtaining empirical data of vehicle flows and traffic intensities. Twelve simulations of different traffic situations (scenarios) were conducted, representing different hours from several days in a week and the corresponding NOX and PM10 emissions were estimated. The results show a general reduction on average speeds for higher intensities due to braking-acceleration patterns that contribute to increase the average emission factor and, therefore, the total emissions in the domain, especially on weekdays. The emissions are clearly related to traffic volume, although maximum emission scenario does not correspond to the highest traffic intensity due to congestion and variations in fleet composition throughout the day. These results evidence the potential that local measures aimed at alleviating congestion may have in urban areas to reduce emissions. In general, scenario-averaged emission factors estimated with the VISSIM-VERSIT+micro modelling system fitted well those from the average-speed model COPERT, used as a preliminary validation of the results. The largest deviations between these two models occur in those scenarios with more congestion. The design and resolution of the microscale modelling system allow to reflect the impact of actual traffic conditions on driving patterns and related emissions, making it useful for the design of mitigation measures for specific traffic hot-spots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  9. A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wozniak, Matthew C.; Steiner, Allison L.

    2017-11-01

    We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1) a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2) a plant functional type (PFT) land cover, phenology, and emission potential. The simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions model for the

  10. Modeling nitrous oxide emission from rivers: a global assessment.

    PubMed

    Hu, Minpeng; Chen, Dingjiang; Dahlgren, Randy A

    2016-11-01

    Estimates of global riverine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions contain great uncertainty. We conducted a meta-analysis incorporating 169 observations from published literature to estimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates and emission factors. Riverine N 2 O flux was significantly correlated with NH 4 , NO 3 and DIN (NH 4  + NO 3 ) concentrations, loads and yields. The emission factors EF(a) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O emission rate and DIN load) and EF(b) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O and DIN concentrations) values were comparable and showed negative correlations with nitrogen concentration, load and yield and water discharge, but positive correlations with the dissolved organic carbon : DIN ratio. After individually evaluating 82 potential regression models based on EF(a) or EF(b) for global, temperate zone and subtropical zone datasets, a power function of DIN yield multiplied by watershed area was determined to provide the best fit between modeled and observed riverine N 2 O emission rates (EF(a): R 2  = 0.92 for both global and climatic zone models, n = 70; EF(b): R 2  = 0.91 for global model and R 2  = 0.90 for climatic zone models, n = 70). Using recent estimates of DIN loads for 6400 rivers, models estimated global riverine N 2 O emission rates of 29.6-35.3 (mean = 32.2) Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 and emission factors of 0.16-0.19% (mean = 0.17%). Global riverine N 2 O emission rates are forecasted to increase by 35%, 25%, 18% and 3% in 2050 compared to the 2000s under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Technogarden, and Adapting Mosaic scenarios, respectively. Previous studies may overestimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates (300-2100 Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 ) because they ignore declining emission factor values with increasing nitrogen levels and channel size, as well as neglect differences in emission factors corresponding to different nitrogen forms. Riverine N 2 O emission estimates will be further

  11. Military, Charter, Unreported Domestic Traffic and General Aviation 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2015 Emission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mortlock, Alan; VanAlstyne, Richard

    1998-01-01

    The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.

  12. Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

  13. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m-3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m-3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m-2 and 2.0 W m-2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m-2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  14. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  15. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-20

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  16. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  17. 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Langholtz, Matthew H.; Johnson, Kristen

    With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report:more » Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO 2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or

  18. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  19. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  20. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  1. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  2. European emissions of HFC-365mfc, a chlorine-free substitute for the foam blowing agents HCFC-141b and CFC-11.

    PubMed

    Stemmler, Konrad; Folini, Doris; Ubl, Sandy; Vollmer, Martin K; Reimann, Stefan; O'Doherty, Simon; Greally, Brian R; Simmonds, Peter G; Manning, Alistair J

    2007-02-15

    HFC-365mfc (1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane) is an industrial chemical used for polyurethane foam blowing. From early 2003, HFC-365mfc has been commercially produced as a substitute for HCFC-141b, whose use in Europe has been banned since January 2004. We describe the first detection of HFC-365mfc in the atmosphere and report on a 2 year long record at the high Alpine station of Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) and the Atlantic coast station of Mace Head (Ireland). The measurements at Jungfraujoch are used to estimate the central European emissions of HFC-365mfc, HCFC-141b, and CFC-11. For HFC-365mfc, we estimate the central European emissions (Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) in 2003 and 2004 as 400-500 tonnes year(-1). These emissions are about one-third lower on a per capita basis than what we estimate from the Mace Head measurements for the total of Europe. The estimated emissions of HCFC-141b for central Europe are higher (i.e., 7.2-3.5 ktonnes year(-1)) with a decreasing trend in the period from 2000 to 2004. Residual emissions of CFC-11 are estimated at 2.4-4.7 ktonnes year(-1) in the same time period. The Po Valley (northern Italy) appears to be a main source region for HFC-365mfc and for the former blowing agents HCFC-141b and CFC-11. In 2004, the emissions of HFC-365mfc arose from a wider region of Europe, which we attribute to an increased penetration of HFC-365mfc into the European market.

  3. Intrinsic fluorescence spectra characteristics of vitamin B1, B2, and B6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Hui; Xiao, Xue; Zhao, Xuesong; Hu, Lan; Lv, Caofang; Yin, Zhangkun

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents the intrinsic fluorescence characteristics of vitamin B1, B2 and B6 measured with 3D fluorescence Spectrophotometer. Three strong fluorescence areas of vitamin B2 locate at λex/λem=270/525nm, 370/525nm and 450/525nm, one fluorescence areas of vitamin B1 locates at λex/λem=370/460nm, two fluorescence areas of vitamin B6 locates at λex/λem=250/370nm and 325/370nm were found. The influence of pH of solution to the fluorescence profile was also discussed. Using the PARAFAC algorithm, 10 vitamin B1, B2 and B6 mixed solutions were successfully decomposed, and the emission profiles, excitation profiles, central wavelengths and the concentration of the three components were retrieved precisely through about 5 iteration times.

  4. Tracer transport for realistic aircraft emission scenarios calculated using a three-dimensional model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weaver, Clark J.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.

    1995-01-01

    A three-dimensional transport model, which uses winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system, is used to study the transport of supersonic aircraft exhaust in the lower stratosphere. A passive tracer is continuously injected into the transport model. The tracer source distribution is based on realistic scenarios for the daily emission rate of reactive nitrogen species for all forecasted flight routes. Winds are from northern hemisphere winter/spring months for 1979 and 1989; there are minimal differences between the tracer integrations for the 2 years. During the integration, peak tracer mixing ratios in the flight corridors are compared with the zonal mean and found to be greater by a factor of 2 or less. This implies that the zonal mean assumption used in two dimensional models is reasonable during winter and spring. There is a preference for pollutant buildup in the heavily traveled North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. Pollutant concentration in the corridors depends on the position of the Aleutian anticyclone and the northern hemisphere polar vortex edge.

  5. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-01-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

  6. Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

    2017-04-01

    Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the Had

  7. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  8. Air Pollutant Emissions Projections for the Cement and Steel Industry in China and the Impact of Emissions Control Technologies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hasanbeigi, Ali; Khanna, Nina; Price, Lynn

    China’s cement and steel industry accounts for approximately half of the world’s total cement and steel production. These two industries are two of the most energy-intensive and highest carbon dioxide (CO 2)-emitting industries and two of the key industrial contributors to air pollution in China. For example, the cement industry is the largest source of particulate matter (PM) emissions in China, accounting for 40 percent of its industrial PM emissions and 27 percent of its total national PM emissions. The Chinese steel industry contributed to approximately 20 percent of sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions and 27 percent of PM emissionsmore » for all key manufacturing industries in China in 2013. In this study, we analyzed and projected the total PM and SO2 emissions from the Chinese cement and steel industry from 2010–2050 under three different scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Advanced scenario, and an Advanced EOP (end-of-pipe) scenario. We used bottom-up emissions control technologies data and assumptions to project the emissions. In addition, we conducted an economic analysis to estimate the cost for PM emissions reductions in the Chinese cement industry using EOP control technologies, energy efficiency measures, and product change measures. The results of the emissions projection showed that there is not a substantial difference in PM emissions between the Base Case and Advanced scenarios, for both the cement and steel industries. This is mainly because PM emissions in the cement industry caused mainly by production process and not the fuel use. Since our forecast for the cement production in the Base Case and Advanced scenarios are not too different from each other, this results in only a slight difference in PM emissions forecast for these two scenarios. Also, we assumed a similar share and penetration rate of control technologies from 2010 up to 2050 for these two scenarios for the cement and steel industry. However, the Advanced EOP scenario showed

  9. Global assessment of the effect of climate change on ammonia emissions from seabirds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riddick, Stuart N.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Blackall, Trevor D.; Tomlinson, Sam J.; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Hallsworth, Stephen; Braban, Christine F.; Tang, Y. Sim; Sutton, Mark A.

    2018-07-01

    Seabird colonies alter the biogeochemistry of nearby ecosystems, while the associated emissions of ammonia (NH3) may cause acidification and eutrophication of finely balanced biomes. To examine the possible effects of future climate change on the magnitude and distribution of seabird NH3 emissions globally, a global seabird database was used as input to the GUANO model, a dynamic mass-flow process-based model that simulates NH3 losses from seabird colonies at an hourly resolution in relation to environmental conditions. Ammonia emissions calculated by the GUANO model were in close agreement with measured NH3 emissions across a wide range of climates. For the year 2010, the total global seabird NH3 emission is estimated at 82 [37-127] Gg year-1. This is less than previously estimated using a simple temperature-dependent empirical model, mainly due to inclusion of nitrogen wash-off from colonies during precipitation events in the GUANO model. High precipitation, especially between 40° and 60° S, results in total emissions for the penguin species that are 82% smaller than previously estimated, while for species found in dry tropical areas, emissions are 83-133% larger. Application of temperature anomalies for several IPCC scenarios for 2099 in the GUANO model indicated a predicted net increase in global seabird NH3 emissions of 27% (B1 scenario) and 39% (A2 scenario), compared with the 2010 estimates. At individual colonies, the net change was the result of influences of temperature, precipitation and relative humidity change, with smaller effects of wind-speed changes. The largest increases in NH3 emissions (mean: 60% [486 to -50] increase; A2 scenario for 2099 compared with 2010) were found for colonies 40°S to 65°N, and may lead to increased plant growth and decreased biodiversity by eliminating nitrogen sensitive plant species. Only 7% of the seabird colonies assessed globally (mainly limited to the sub-polar Southern Ocean) were estimated to experience a

  10. Field emission investigations of single crystal LaB6 FEA fabricated by femtosecond laser direct writing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hongliang; Zhang, Xin; Li, Yuancheng; Xiao, Yixin; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Jiu-Xing

    2018-04-01

    The femtosecond laser direct writing method has been used to fabricate the single crystal lanthanum hexaboride (LaB6) field-emission tip arrays (FEAs). The morphologies, structure phase, and field emission of the single crystal LaB6 FEAs are systematically studied. The nanostructures on the surface of tips with the LaB6 phase were formed, resulting in favor of improving field emission, particularly for samples with the nanohill shaped bulges having the size of about 100 nm. The produced single crystal LaB6 FEAs have a uniform structure and a controllable curvature radius of about 0.5-3.0 μm. The FEAs with a curvature radius of about 0.5 μm as field emitters have the best field emission performance, which the field emission turns on and the threshold electric fields are as low as 2.2 and 3.8 V/μm with an emission current of 1.0 A/cm2 at 8.0 V/μm, and the emission current exhibits high stability. These indicate that the processed LaB6 FEAs have a good prospect applied in vacuum microelectronic devices and the simple femtosecond laser direct writing method could lead to an approach for the development of electron sources.

  11. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

    2017-03-28

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

  12. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  13. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

  14. A few scenarios still do not fit all

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa

    2018-05-01

    For integrated climate change research, the Scenario Matrix Architecture provides a tractable menu of possible emissions trajectories, socio-economic futures and policy environments. However, the future of decision support may lie in searchable databases.

  15. HFC-134a emissions from mobile air conditioning in China from 1995 to 2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Shenshen; Fang, Xuekun; Li, Li; Wu, Jing; Zhang, Jianbo; Xu, Weiguang; Hu, Jianxin

    2015-02-01

    Since 1995, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (CH2FCF3, HFC-134a) has become the most important substitute of CFC-12 in mobile air conditioning (MAC) in China and MAC sector has dominated all the emissions of HFC-134a. In this study, we developed an accurate, updated and county-level inventory of the HFC-134a emissions from MAC in China for the period of 1995-2030 with an improved bottom-up method. Our estimation indicated that the total HFC-134a emissions kept growing at increase rates of ∼100% per year for 1995-2000 and ∼34% per year for 2001-2010. In 2010, HFC-134a emissions from MAC in China reached 16.7 Gg (10.5-22.7 Gg at 95% confidential interval), equivalent to 21.7 Tg CO2 (CO2-eq). Furthermore, the emissions in China estimated in this study accounted for 9.8% of global HFC-134a emissions and 29.0% of total emissions from Non-Annex_I countries in 2010. Due to the more advanced social-economic conditions and more intensive ownership of automobiles, greater HFC-134a were observed to come from big cities in East China. Under a Business-as-usual (BAU) Scenario, projected emissions will grow to 89.4 (57.9-123.9) Gg (about 75.3-161.1 Tg CO2-eq) in 2030, but under an Alternative Scenario, 88.6% of the projected emissions under BAU scenario could be curbed. Our estimation demonstrates huge emission mitigation potential of HFC-134a in China's MAC sector.

  16. Quantitative assessment of industrial VOC emissions in China: Historical trend, spatial distribution, uncertainties, and projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Chenghang; Shen, Jiali; Zhang, Yongxin; Huang, Weiwei; Zhu, Xinbo; Wu, Xuecheng; Chen, Linghong; Gao, Xiang; Cen, Kefa

    2017-02-01

    The temporal trends of industrial volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions was comprehensively summarized for the 2011 to 2013 period, and the projections for 2020 to 2050 for China were set. The results demonstrate that industrial VOC emissions in China increased from 15.3 Tg in 2011 to 29.4 Tg in 2013 at an annual average growth rate of 38.3%. Guangdong (3.45 Tg), Shandong (2.85 Tg), and Jiangsu (2.62 Tg) were the three largest contributors collectively accounting for 30.4% of the national total emissions in 2013. The top three average industrial VOC emissions per square kilometer were Shanghai (247.2 ton/km2), Tianjin (62.8 ton/km2), and Beijing (38.4 ton/km2), which were 12-80 times of the average level in China. The data from the inventory indicate that the use of VOC-containing products, as well as the production and use of VOCs as raw materials, as well as for storage and transportation contributed 75.4%, 10.3%, 9.1%, and 5.2% of the total emissions, respectively. ArcGIS was used to display the remarkable spatial distribution variation by allocating the emission into 1 km × 1 km grid cells with a population as surrogate indexes. Combined with future economic development and population change, as well as implementation of policy and upgrade of control technologies, three scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) were set to project industrial VOC emissions for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050, which present the industrial VOC emissions in different scenarios and the potential of reducing emissions. Finally, the result shows that the collaborative control policies considerably influenced industrial VOC emissions.

  17. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  18. The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that,more » as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.« less

  19. Detection of H-alpha emission in the hot white dwarf G191-B2B

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, Neill; Wegner, Gary

    1988-12-01

    High-resolution spectra of G191-B2B, the hottest known DA white dwarf were obtained which reveal emission in the core of the H-alpha line. The observations show little variation in the line profile over a period of four days, ruling out line-doubling in a close binary as an explanation. The observed emission cannot be due to a nearby red dwarf companion, while the absence of any spatially extended emission argues against either a planetary nebula remnant or local ionization of the interstellar medium. The determination of the systemic velocity, using the companion red dwarf G191-B2A, is 5 + or - 2 km/s and shows that both the H-alpha emission and the high-excitation species observed in the ultraviolet are redshifted by 19 + or - 3 km/s, suggesting a photospheric origin. The low redshift implies a mass of 0.45 solar mass for this hot white dwarf, although the uncertainties in the effective temperature and parallax permit masses in the range 0.29 to 0.60 solar mass.

  20. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  1. Regional climate change over South Korea projected by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Joong-Bae; Im, Eun-Soon; Jo, Sera

    2017-04-01

    This study assesses the regional climate projection newly projected within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. The fine-scale climate information (12.5 km) is produced by dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041-2070 vs. 2071-2100). The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods. Acknowledgement : This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-2081

  2. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  3. Global Source-Receptor Relationships for Mercury Deposition Under Present-Day and 2050 Emissions Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Corbitt, Elizabeth S.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Holmes, Christopher D.; Streets, David G.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

    2011-01-01

    Global policies regulating anthropogenic mercury require an understanding of the relationship between emitted and deposited mercury on intercontinental scales. Here we examine source-receptor relationships for present-day conditions and for four 2050 IPCC scenarios encompassing a range of economic development and environmental regulation projections. We use the GEOS-Chem global model to track mercury from its point of emission through rapid cycling in surface ocean and land reservoirs to its accumulation in longer-lived ocean and soil pools. Deposited mercury has a local component (emitted HgII, lifetime of 3.7 days against deposition) and a global component (emitted Hg0, lifetime of 6 months against deposition). Fast recycling of deposited mercury through photoreduction of HgII and re-emission of Hg0 from surface reservoirs (ice, land, surface ocean) increases the effective lifetime of anthropogenic mercury to 9 months against loss to legacy reservoirs (soil pools and the subsurface ocean). This lifetime is still sufficiently short that source-receptor relationships have a strong hemispheric signature. Asian emissions are the largest source of anthropogenic deposition to all ocean basins, though there is also regional source influence from upwind continents. Current anthropogenic emissions account for only about one-third of mercury deposition to the global ocean with the remainder from natural and legacy sources. However, controls on anthropogenic emissions would have the added benefit of reducing the legacy mercury re-emitted to the atmosphere. Better understanding is needed of the timescales for transfer of mercury from active pools to stable geochemical reservoirs. PMID:22050654

  4. What strategy is needed for attaining the EU air quality regulations under future climate change scenarios? A sensitivity analysis over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Baró, R.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; García-Valero, J. A.; Hernández, Z.; Montávez, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    A wide number of studies show that several areas over Europe exceed some of the air quality thresholds established in the legislation. These exceedances will become more frequent under future climate change scenarios, since the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone will influence the future concentrations of atmospheric pollutants through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. In this sense, chemistry transport models (CTMs) play a key role in assessing and understanding the emissions abatement plans through the use of sensitivity analysis strategies. These sensitivity analyses characterize the change in model output due to variations in model input parameters. Since the management strategies of air pollutant emission is one of the predominant factors for controlling urban air quality, this work assesses the impact of various emission reduction scenarios in air pollution levels over Europe under two climate change scenarios. The methodology includes the use of a climate version of the meteorological model MM5 coupled with the CHIMERE chemistry transport model. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as two future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have an horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 hPa, and are driven by the global climate model ECHO-G . In order to represent the sensitivity of the chemistry and transport of aerosols, tropospheric ozone and other photochemical species, several hypothetical scenarios of emission control have been implemented to quantify the influence of diverse emission sources in the area, such as on-road traffic, port and industrial emissions, among others. The modeling strategy lies on a sensitivity analysis to determine the emission reduction and strategy needed in the target area in

  5. Future trends of global atmospheric antimony emissions from anthropogenic activities until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Junrui; Tian, Hezhong; Zhu, Chuanyong; Hao, Jiming; Gao, Jiajia; Wang, Yong; Xue, Yifeng; Hua, Shenbin; Wang, Kun

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents the scenario forecast of global atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from anthropogenic activities till 2050. The projection scenarios are built based on the comprehensive global antimony emission inventory for the period 1995-2010 which is reported in our previous study. Three scenarios are set up to investigate the future changes of global antimony emissions as well as their source and region contribution characteristics. Trends of activity levels specified as 5 primary source categories are projected by combining the historical trend extrapolation with EIA International energy outlook 2013, while the source-specific dynamic emission factors are determined by applying transformed normal distribution functions. If no major changes in the efficiency of emission control are introduced and keep current air quality legislations (Current Legislation scenario), global antimony emissions will increase by a factor of 2 between 2010 and 2050. The largest increase in Sb emissions is projected from Asia due to large volume of nonferrous metals production and waste incineration. In case of enforcing the pollutant emission standards (Strengthened Control scenario), global antimony emissions in 2050 will stabilize with that of 2010. Moreover, we can anticipate further declines in Sb emissions for all continents with the best emission control performances (Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction scenario). Future antimony emissions from the top 10 largest emitting countries have also been calculated and source category contributions of increasing emissions of these countries present significant diversity. Furthermore, global emission projections in 2050 are distributed within a 1° × 1°latitude/longitude grid. East Asia, Western Europe and North America present remarkable differences in emission intensity under the three scenarios, which implies that source-and-country specific control measures are necessary to be implemented for abating Sb emissions from

  6. Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

    2016-05-01

    Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

  7. Subpart B: National Emission Standards for Radon Emissions From Underground Uranium Mines

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Subpart B sets a limit on the emission of radon-222 that ensures that no member of the public in any year receives an effective dose equivalent of more than 10 mrem/year from an underground uranium mine.

  8. Identification and properties of the photospheric emission in GRB090902B

    DOE PAGES

    Ryde, F.; Axelsson, M.; Zhang, B. B.; ...

    2010-01-14

    We observed the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope using the bright and long GRB090902B, lying at a redshift of z = 1.822. Together the Large Area Telescope (LAT) and the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) cover the spectral range from 8 keV to >300 GeV. Here we show that the prompt burst spectrum is consistent with emission from the jet photosphere combined with nonthermal emission described by a single power law with photon index –1.9. The photosphere gives rise to a strong quasi-blackbody spectrum which is somewhat broader than a single Planck function and has a characteristic temperature of ~290 keV. Wemore » model the photospheric emission with a multicolor blackbody, and its shape indicates that the photospheric radius increases at higher latitudes. We derive the averaged photospheric radius R ph = (1.1 ± 0.3) × 10 12 Y 1/4 cm and the bulk Lorentz factor of the flow, which is found to vary by a factor of 2 and has a maximal value of Γ = 750 Y 1/4. Here, Y is the ratio between the total fireball energy and the energy emitted in the gamma rays. Here, we find that during the first quarter of the prompt phase the photospheric emission dominates, which explains the delayed onset of the observed flux in the LAT compared to the GBM. We also interpret the broadband emission as synchrotron emission at R ~ 4 × 10 15 cm. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of having high temporal resolution when performing spectral analysis on gamma-ray bursts, since there is strong spectral evolution.« less

  9. The Detectability of Radio Auroral Emission from Proxima b

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Burkhart, Blakesley; Loeb, Abraham

    Magnetically active stars possess stellar winds whose interactions with planetary magnetic fields produce radio auroral emission. We examine the detectability of radio auroral emission from Proxima b, the closest known exosolar planet orbiting our nearest neighboring star, Proxima Centauri. Using the radiometric Bode’s law, we estimate the radio flux produced by the interaction of Proxima Centauri’s stellar wind and Proxima b’s magnetosphere for different planetary magnetic field strengths. For plausible planetary masses, Proxima b could produce radio fluxes of 100 mJy or more in a frequency range of 0.02–3 MHz for planetary magnetic field strengths of 0.007–1 G. According tomore » recent MHD models that vary the orbital parameters of the system, this emission is expected to be highly variable. This variability is due to large fluctuations in the size of Proxima b’s magnetosphere as it crosses the equatorial streamer regions of dense stellar wind and high dynamic pressure. Using the MHD model of Garraffo et al. for the variation of the magnetosphere radius during the orbit, we estimate that the observed radio flux can vary nearly by an order of magnitude over the 11.2-day period of Proxima b. The detailed amplitude variation depends on the stellar wind, orbital, and planetary magnetic field parameters. We discuss observing strategies for proposed future space-based observatories to reach frequencies below the ionospheric cutoff (∼10 MHz), which would be required to detect the signal we investigate.« less

  10. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  11. Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

    2016-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

  12. Global climate simulations with the A1F1 scenario for 2000-2100: Meltwater, temperature and river flow impacts in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, D. J.; Branstetter, M. L.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Ganguly, A. R.; Hoffman, F. M.; King, A. W.; Buja, L.; Panwar, T. S.

    2008-05-01

    Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the SRES A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. We find temperature increases of 3-9oC over Northern India by the end of this century. We will discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as the climate evolves from 2000-2100. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will compare our new insights with the existing literature. Climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover have indicated increased cloud cover and precipitation, resulting in decreased incident radiation and higher latent heat fluxes, in India during June, July and August by 2050 (Feddema et al., 2005). Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events (Krishna Kumar et al., 2006), studied the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming (Kripalini et al., 2003) on IMR, as well as demonstrated an increasing trend of extreme rain events in a warming environment (Goswami et al., 2006). In addition, the vulnerability of the Indian agriculture sector to climate change was analyzed and mapped at district-levels by combining with multiple global stressors (O'Brien et al., 2004). [[References::: (1) Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E., Meehl, G.A., and W.M. Washington (2005): The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates, Science, 310 (5754): 1674-1678, 9 December

  13. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    PubMed

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Processing TES Level-1B Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeBaca, Richard C.; Sarkissian, Edwin; Madatyan, Mariyetta; Shepard, Douglas; Gluck, Scott; Apolinski, Mark; McDuffie, James; Tremblay, Dennis

    2006-01-01

    TES L1B Subsystem is a computer program that performs several functions for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). The term "L1B" (an abbreviation of "level 1B"), refers to data, specific to the TES, on radiometric calibrated spectral radiances and their corresponding noise equivalent spectral radiances (NESRs), plus ancillary geolocation, quality, and engineering data. The functions performed by TES L1B Subsystem include shear analysis, monitoring of signal levels, detection of ice build-up, and phase correction and radiometric and spectral calibration of TES target data. Also, the program computes NESRs for target spectra, writes scientific TES level-1B data to hierarchical- data-format (HDF) files for public distribution, computes brightness temperatures, and quantifies interpixel signal variability for the purpose of first-order cloud and heterogeneous land screening by the level-2 software summarized in the immediately following article. This program uses an in-house-developed algorithm, called "NUSRT," to correct instrument line-shape factors.

  15. GRB 090423 IN the Fireshell Scenario: a Canonical GRB at Redshift 8.2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izzo, Luca; Bernardini, Maria Grazia; Bianco, Carlo Luciano; Caito, Letizia; Patricelli, Barbara; Ruffini, Remo

    GRB 090423 is the farthest GRB up to date, with a redshift of about 8.1. We present within the Fireshell scenario a complete analysis of this GRB in the γ-ray band and a detailed analysis also in the X-rays, where we note the existence of a second component. We obtain that the FireShell model gives a good indication for the energetic emitted in the burst, Etot = 1:2x1053 ergs. Moreover we note that GRB 090423 is a long GRB with a relatively high bulk Lorentz Gamma factor at the transparency of the Fireshell. Finally we present a study of this extra component in the context of the synchrotron emission scenario, delineated in.8

  16. Mapping the Lyα Emission around a z ˜ 6.6 QSO with MUSE: Extended Emission and a Companion at a Close Separation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farina, Emanuele P.; Venemans, Bram P.; Decarli, Roberto; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Walter, Fabian; Bañados, Eduardo; Mazzucchelli, Chiara; Cantalupo, Sebastiano; Arrigoni-Battaia, Fabrizio; McGreer, Ian D.

    2017-10-01

    We utilize the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) on the Very Large Telescope to search for extended Lyα emission around the z ˜ 6.6 QSO J0305-3150. After carefully subtracting the point spread function, we reach a nominal 5σ surface-brightness limit of SB5σ = 1.9 × 10-18 erg s-1 cm-2 arcsec-2 over a 1 arcsec2 aperture, collapsing five wavelength slices centered at the expected location of the redshifted Lyα emission (I.e., at 9256 Å). Current data suggest the presence (5σ accounting for systematics) of a Lyα nebula that extends for 9 kpc around the QSO. This emission is displaced and redshifted by 155 km s-1 with respect to the location of the QSO host galaxy traced by the [{{C}} {{II}}] 158 μm emission line. The total luminosity is L({Ly}α ) = (3.0 ± 0.4) × 1042 erg s-1. Our analysis suggests that this emission is unlikely to rise from optically thick clouds illuminated by the ionizing radiation of the QSO. It is more plausible that the Lyα emission is due to the fluorescence of the highly ionized optically thin gas. This scenario implies a high hydrogen volume density of {n}{{H}}˜ 6 cm-3. In addition, we detect a Lyα emitter (LAE) in the immediate vicinity of the QSO, I.e., with a projected separation of ˜12.5 kpc and a line-of-sight velocity difference of 560 km s-1. The luminosity of the LAE is L({Ly}α ) = (2.1 ± 0.2) × 1042 erg s-1 and its inferred star-formation rate is SFR ˜ 1.3 M ⊙ yr-1. The probability of finding such a close LAE is one order of magnitude above the expectations based on the QSO-galaxy cross-correlation function. This discovery is in agreement with a scenario where dissipative interactions favor the rapid build-up of supermassive black holes at early cosmic times.

  17. Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

    PubMed

    Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

  18. Emission properties and back-bombardment for CeB{sub 6} compared to LaB{sub 6}

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bakr, Mahmoud, E-mail: m-a-bakr@iae.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Kawai, M.; Kii, T.

    The emission properties of CeB{sub 6} compared to LaB{sub 6} thermionic cathodes have been measured using an electrostatic DC gun. Obtaining knowledge of the emission properties is the first step in understanding the back-bombardment effect that limits wide usage of thermionic radio-frequency electron guns. The effect of back-bombardment electrons on CeB{sub 6} compared to LaB{sub 6} was studied using a numerical simulation model. The results show that for 6 μs pulse duration with input radio-frequency power of 8 MW, CeB{sub 6} should experience 14% lower temperature increase and 21% lower current density rise compared to LaB{sub 6}. We conclude that CeB{submore » 6} has the potential to become the future replacement for LaB{sub 6} thermionic cathodes in radio-frequency electron guns.« less

  19. 40 CFR 60.34b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... combustor operating practices. 60.34b Section 60.34b Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... September 20, 1994 § 60.34b Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices. (a) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for carbon monoxide at least as protective as the...

  20. 40 CFR 60.34b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... combustor operating practices. 60.34b Section 60.34b Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... September 20, 1994 § 60.34b Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices. (a) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for carbon monoxide at least as protective as the...

  1. 40 CFR 60.34b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... combustor operating practices. 60.34b Section 60.34b Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... September 20, 1994 § 60.34b Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices. (a) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for carbon monoxide at least as protective as the...

  2. 40 CFR 60.34b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... combustor operating practices. 60.34b Section 60.34b Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... September 20, 1994 § 60.34b Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices. (a) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for carbon monoxide at least as protective as the...

  3. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sicard, Pierre; Anav, Alessandro; De Marco, Alessandra; Paoletti, Elena

    2017-10-01

    The impact of ground-level ozone (O3) on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4-5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2-10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  4. Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

    2017-04-01

    In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

  5. O2(b1Σg+, v = 0, 1) Relative Yield in O(1D) + O2 Energy Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostko, O.; Raj, S.; Campbell, K. M.; Pejakovic, D. A.; Slanger, T. G.; Kalogerakis, K. S.

    2012-04-01

    Energy transfer from excited O(1D) atoms to ground-state O2(X3Σg-) leads to production of O2 in the first two vibrational levels of the O2(b1Σg+) state: O(1D) + O2 → O(3P ) + O2(b1Σg+, v = 0, 1). Subsequent radiative decay of O2(b1Σg+, v = 0, 1) to the ground state results in the Atmospheric Band emission, a prominent feature of the terrestrial airglow. The relative yield for production of O2(b1Σg+, v = 0, 1) in the above process, k1/k0, is an important parameter in modeling of the observed O2 Atmospheric Band emission intensities. In the laboratory experiments, the output of a pulsed fluorine laser at 157 nm is used to photodissociate molecular oxygen in an O2/N2 mixture flowing through a heated gas cell. Photodissociation of O2 produces a ground-state O(3P ) atom and an excited O(1D) atom. O(1D) rapidly transfers energy to the remaining O2 to produce O2(b1Σg+, v = 0, 1). The populations of O2(b1Σg+, v = 0, 1) are monitored by observing emissions in the O2(b-X) 0-0 and 1-0 bands at 762 and 688 nm, respectively. The value of k1/k0 is extracted from the time-dependent O2(b1Σg+, v = 0, 1) fluorescence signals using computer simulations. We find that production of v = 1 is substantially larger than that of v = 0. We will present measurements on k1/k0 and its temperature dependence, and discuss the significance of these and other relevant laboratory measurements on the interpretation of the O2 Atmospheric Band emission. This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Aeronomy Program under grant AGS-0937317. The fluorine laser was purchased under grant ATM-0216583 from the NSF Major Research Instrumentation Program. The participation of Sumana Raj and Kendrick M. Campbell was supported by a Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) site, co-funded by the Division of Physics of the NSF and the Department of Defense in partnership with the NSF REU program (PHY-1002892).

  6. A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duveiller, G.; Donatelli, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Zucchini, A.; Nelson, R.; Baruth, B.

    2017-02-01

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure

  7. Excitation of O 2(a 1Δ g, b 1Σ g+) and I( 2P 1/2) by energy transfer from I 2(A, A' 3Π 1,2u) in solid rare gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böhling, R.; Becker, A. C.; Minaev, B. F.; Seranski, K.; Schurath, U.

    1990-04-01

    O 2a 1Δ g, b 1Σ g+ → X 3Σ g- and I 2P 1/2→ 2P 3/4 fluorescence occurs in I 2/O 2-doped rare gas matrices when I 2 is excited with visible laser light. O 2(a 1Δ g) and I( 2P 1/2) are populated independently by near-resonant energy transfer from the metastable triplet states of I 2. The doublet splitting of the O 2a→X band, which peaks at 7879 and 7863 cm -1 in argon, is interpreted as sensitized emission from O 2 trapped in distinct nearest neighbour positions of the donor 3I 2. Annealing reverses the intensity of the doublet, showing that the sites can be interconverted. It is suggested that the a→X emission rate is enhanced by the sensitizer, causing a lifetime reduction of the a 1Δ g state from 79 s in pure argon to 21 and 3±1 s next to I 2. The long-lived O 2(a 1Δ g) state is the precursor of I 2-sensitized emission from O 2(b 1Σ g+). The lifetime of O 2(b 1Σ g+) is reduced from 24.5 ms in pure argon to 17±1 ms in the presence of I 2.

  8. NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Liu, H.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

    2013-10-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

  9. Benzo[a]pyrene exposure under future ocean acidification scenarios weakens the immune responses of blood clam, Tegillarca granosa.

    PubMed

    Su, Wenhao; Zha, Shanjie; Wang, Yichen; Shi, Wei; Xiao, Guoqiang; Chai, Xueliang; Wu, Hongxi; Liu, Guangxu

    2017-04-01

    Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are known to converge into the ocean and accumulate in the sediment, posing great threats to marine organisms such as the sessile bottom burrowing bivalves. However, the immune toxicity of POPs, such as B[a]P, under future ocean acidification scenarios remains poorly understood to date. Therefore, in the present study, the impacts of B[a]P exposure on the immune responses of a bivalve species, Tegillarca granosa, under present and future ocean acidification scenarios were investigated. Results obtained revealed an increased immune toxicity of B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios in terms of reduced THC, altered haemocyte composition, and hampered phagocytosis, which may attribute to the synergetic effects of B[a]P and ocean acidification. In addition, the gene expressions of pathogen pattern recognition receptors (TLR1, TLR2, TLR4, TLR6), pathway mediators (TRAF6, TAK1, TAB2, IKKα and Myd88), and effectors (NF-ĸB) of the important immune related pathways were significantly down-regulated upon exposure to B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios. Results of the present study suggested an increased immune toxicity of B[a]P under future ocean acidification scenarios, which will significantly hamper the immune responses of T. granosa and subsequently render individuals more susceptible to pathogens challenges. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  11. X-ray emission from an Ap star /Phi Herculis/ and a late B star /Pi Ceti/

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cash, W.; Snow, T. P., Jr.; Charles, P.

    1979-01-01

    Using the HEAO 1 soft X-ray sky survey, a search was conducted for X-ray emission from 18 stars in the spectral range B5-A7. The detection of 0.25 keV X-ray sources consistent with the positions of Pi Ceti, a normal B7 V star, and Phi Herculis, a classic Ap star was reported. The detection of these stars argues for large mass motions in the upper layers of stars in this spectral range, and argues against radiative diffusion as the source of abundance anomalies in Ap stars.

  12. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustian Permadi, Didin; Oanh, Nguyen Thi Kim; Vautard, Robert

    2018-03-01

    Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF-CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF-CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m-2, which would increase to 2.0 W m-2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m-2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop

  13. Thermal emission property of solid solution Gd{sub 1-x}Nd{sub x}B{sub 6} (x=0, 0.6, 0.8)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Xing Zhang, Jiu; Hong Bao, Li; Lin Zhou, Shen, E-mail: zjiuxing@bjut.edu.cn, E-mail: Baolihong_10@yahoo.com.cn, E-mail: zhoushenlin@emails.bjut.edu.cn

    2011-07-01

    In this paper, to further explore the excellent emission properties of rare earth boride cathode, herein we present the synthesis, characterization and properties of polycrystalline Nd{sub 1-x}Gd{sub x}B{sub 6} (x = 0, 0.6, 0.8) bulk via arc plasma and reactive SPS. (author)

  14. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  15. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Treesearch

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  16. Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

    2018-03-01

    The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

  17. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2016-03-01

    A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

  18. Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

    PubMed

    Babel, Sandhya; Vilaysouk, Xaysackda

    2016-01-01

    Municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the major environmental problems throughout the world including in Lao PDR. In Vientiane, due to the lack of a collection service, open burning and illegal dumping are commonly practised. This study aims to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the current situation of MSW management (MSWM) in Vientiane and proposes an alternative solution to reduce the GHG emission and environmental impacts. The 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006 model) are used for the estimation of GHG emission from landfill and composting. For the estimation of GHG emission from open burning, the Atmospheric Brown Clouds Emission Inventory Manual (ABC EIM) is used. In Vientiane, a total of 232, 505 tonnes year(-1) of MSW was generated in 2011. Waste generation in Vientiane is 0.69 kg per capita per day, and about 31% of the total MSW generated was directly sent to landfill (71,162 tonnes year(-1)). The total potential GHG emission from the baseline scenario in 2011 was 110,182 tonnes year(-1) CO2-eq, which is 0.15 tonne year(-1) CO2-eq per capita. From the three MSWM scenarios proposed, scenario S3, which includes recycling, composting and landfilling, seems to be an effective solution for dealing with MSW in Vientiane with less air pollution, and is environmentally friendly. The total GHG emission in scenario S3 is reduced to 91,920 tonnes year(-1) CO2-eq (47% reduction), compared with the S1 scenario where all uncollected waste is diverted to landfill. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Smith, Steven J.; Pitcher, Hugh M.; Wigley, Tom M.

    2005-12-01

    The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latestmore » version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for IA modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In all cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.« less

  20. 40 CFR 60.47b - Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... Industrial-Commercial-Institutional Steam Generating Units § 60.47b Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... generating unit and analyzing them for sulfur and heat content according to Method 19 of appendix A of this...

  1. 40 CFR 60.47b - Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... Industrial-Commercial-Institutional Steam Generating Units § 60.47b Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... generating unit and analyzing them for sulfur and heat content according to Method 19 of appendix A of this...

  2. 40 CFR 60.47b - Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 7 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... Industrial-Commercial-Institutional Steam Generating Units § 60.47b Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... generating unit and analyzing them for sulfur and heat content according to Method 19 of appendix A of this...

  3. 40 CFR 60.47b - Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 7 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... Industrial-Commercial-Institutional Steam Generating Units § 60.47b Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... generating unit and analyzing them for sulfur and heat content according to Method 19 of appendix A of this...

  4. 40 CFR 60.47b - Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 7 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... Industrial-Commercial-Institutional Steam Generating Units § 60.47b Emission monitoring for sulfur dioxide... generating unit and analyzing them for sulfur and heat content according to Method 19 of appendix A of this...

  5. Assessing the greenhouse gas emissions of Brazilian soybean biodiesel production.

    PubMed

    Cerri, Carlos Eduardo Pellegrino; You, Xin; Cherubin, Maurício Roberto; Moreira, Cindy Silva; Raucci, Guilherme Silva; Castigioni, Bruno de Almeida; Alves, Priscila Aparecida; Cerri, Domingos Guilherme Pellegrino; Mello, Francisco Fujita de Castro; Cerri, Carlos Clemente

    2017-01-01

    Soybean biodiesel (B100) has been playing an important role in Brazilian energy matrix towards the national bio-based economy. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is the most widely used indicator for assessing the environmental sustainability of biodiesels and received particular attention among decision makers in business and politics, as well as consumers. Former studies have been mainly focused on the GHG emissions from the soybean cultivation, excluding other stages of the biodiesel production. Here, we present a holistic view of the total GHG emissions in four life cycle stages for soybean biodiesel. The aim of this study was to assess the GHG emissions of Brazilian soybean biodiesel production system with an integrated life cycle approach of four stages: agriculture, extraction, production and distribution. Allocation of mass and energy was applied and special attention was paid to the integrated and non-integrated industrial production chain. The results indicated that the largest source of GHG emissions, among four life cycle stages, is the agricultural stage (42-51%) for B100 produced in integrated systems and the production stage (46-52%) for B100 produced in non-integrated systems. Integration of industrial units resulted in significant reduction in life cycle GHG emissions. Without the consideration of LUC and assuming biogenic CO2 emissions is carbon neutral in our study, the calculated life cycle GHG emissions for domestic soybean biodiesel varied from 23.1 to 25.8 gCO2eq. MJ-1 B100 and those for soybean biodiesel exported to EU ranged from 26.5 to 29.2 gCO2eq. MJ-1 B100, which represent reductions by 65% up to 72% (depending on the delivery route) of GHG emissions compared with the EU benchmark for diesel fuel. Our findings from a life cycle perspective contributed to identify the major GHG sources in Brazilian soybean biodiesel production system and they can be used to guide mitigation priority for policy and decision-making. Projected scenarios in this

  6. Assessing the greenhouse gas emissions of Brazilian soybean biodiesel production

    PubMed Central

    You, Xin; Cherubin, Maurício Roberto; Moreira, Cindy Silva; Raucci, Guilherme Silva; Castigioni, Bruno de Almeida; Alves, Priscila Aparecida; Cerri, Domingos Guilherme Pellegrino; Mello, Francisco Fujita de Castro; Cerri, Carlos Clemente

    2017-01-01

    Soybean biodiesel (B100) has been playing an important role in Brazilian energy matrix towards the national bio-based economy. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is the most widely used indicator for assessing the environmental sustainability of biodiesels and received particular attention among decision makers in business and politics, as well as consumers. Former studies have been mainly focused on the GHG emissions from the soybean cultivation, excluding other stages of the biodiesel production. Here, we present a holistic view of the total GHG emissions in four life cycle stages for soybean biodiesel. The aim of this study was to assess the GHG emissions of Brazilian soybean biodiesel production system with an integrated life cycle approach of four stages: agriculture, extraction, production and distribution. Allocation of mass and energy was applied and special attention was paid to the integrated and non-integrated industrial production chain. The results indicated that the largest source of GHG emissions, among four life cycle stages, is the agricultural stage (42–51%) for B100 produced in integrated systems and the production stage (46–52%) for B100 produced in non-integrated systems. Integration of industrial units resulted in significant reduction in life cycle GHG emissions. Without the consideration of LUC and assuming biogenic CO2 emissions is carbon neutral in our study, the calculated life cycle GHG emissions for domestic soybean biodiesel varied from 23.1 to 25.8 gCO2eq. MJ-1 B100 and those for soybean biodiesel exported to EU ranged from 26.5 to 29.2 gCO2eq. MJ-1 B100, which represent reductions by 65% up to 72% (depending on the delivery route) of GHG emissions compared with the EU benchmark for diesel fuel. Our findings from a life cycle perspective contributed to identify the major GHG sources in Brazilian soybean biodiesel production system and they can be used to guide mitigation priority for policy and decision-making. Projected scenarios in

  7. Modules: A New Tool in the Emissions Modeling Framework

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-08-14

    The Emissions Modeling Framework (EMF) is used by various organizations, including the US Environmental Protection Agency, to manage their emissions inventories, projections, and emissions modeling scenarios. Modules are a new tool under develo...

  8. Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

    PubMed

    Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

    2016-12-15

    Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Comparison of models used for national agricultural ammonia emission inventories in Europe: Litter-based manure systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidy, B.; Webb, J.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Menzi, H.; Luesink, H. H.; Hutchings, N. J.; Eurich-Menden, B.; Döhler, H.; Dämmgen, U.

    Six N-flow models, used to calculate national ammonia (NH 3) emissions from agriculture in different European countries, were compared using standard data sets. Scenarios for litter-based systems were run separately for beef cattle and for broilers, with three different levels of model standardisation: (a) standardized inputs to all models (FF scenario); (b) standard N excretion, but national values for emission factors (EFs) (FN scenario); (c) national values for N excretion and EFs (NN scenario). Results of the FF scenario for beef cattle produced very similar estimates of total losses of total ammoniacal-N (TAN) (±6% of the mean total), but large differences in NH 3 emissions (±24% of the mean). These differences arose from the different approaches to TAN immobilization in litter, other N losses and mineralization in the models. As a result of those differences estimates of TAN available at spreading differed by a factor of almost 3. Results of the FF scenario for broilers produced a range of estimates of total changes in TAN (±9% of the mean total), and larger differences in the estimate of NH 3 emissions (±17% of the mean). The different approaches among the models to TAN immobilization, other N losses and mineralization, produced estimates of TAN available at spreading which differed by a factor of almost 1.7. The differences in estimates of NH 3 emissions decreased as estimates of immobilization and other N losses increased. Since immobilization and denitrification depend also on the C:N ratio in manure, there would be advantages to include C flows in mass-flow models. This would also provide an integrated model for the estimation of emissions of methane, non-methane VOCs and carbon dioxide. Estimation of these would also enable an estimate of mass loss, calculation of the N and TAN concentrations in litter-based manures and further validation of model outputs.

  10. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  11. Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Lindvall, Jenny; Ekman, Annica M. L.; Svensson, Gunilla

    2016-11-01

    Here, we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model to investigate the plume development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war between emerging third-world nuclear powers. We simulate a standard scenario where 5 Tg of black carbon (BC) is emitted over 1 day in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. However, it is likely that the emissions from the fires ignited by bomb detonations include a substantial amount of particulate organic matter (POM) and that they last more than 1 day. We therefore test the sensitivity of the aerosol plume and climate system to the BC/POM ratio (1:3, 1:9) and to the emission length (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). We find that in general, an emission length of 1 month substantially reduces the cooling compared to the 1-day case, whereas taking into account POM emissions notably increases the cooling and the reduction of precipitation associated with the nuclear war during the first year following the detonation. Accounting for POM emissions increases the particle size in the short-emission-length scenarios (1 day/1 week), reducing the residence time of the injected particle. While the initial cooling is more intense when including POM emission, the long-lasting effects, while still large, may be less extreme compared to the BC-only case. Our study highlights that the emission altitude reached by the plume is sensitive to both the particle type emitted by the fires and the emission duration. Consequently, the climate effects of a nuclear war are strongly dependent on these parameters.

  12. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir.

    PubMed

    Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2017-04-15

    The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  14. A scenario elicitation methodology to identify the drivers of electricity infrastructure cost in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moksnes, Nandi; Taliotis, Constantinos; Broad, Oliver; de Moura, Gustavo; Howells, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Developing a set of scenarios to assess a proposed policy or future development pathways requires a certain level of information, as well as establishing the socio-economic context. As the future is difficult to predict, great care in defining the selected scenarios is needed. Even so it can be difficult to assess if the selected scenario is covering the possible solution space. Instead, this paper's methodology develops a large set of scenarios (324) in OSeMOSYS using the SAMBA 2.0 (South America Model Base) model to assess long-term electricity supply scenarios and applies a scenario-discovery statistical data mining algorithm, Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). By creating a multidimensional space, regions related to high and low cost can be identified as well as their key driver. The six key drivers are defined a priori in three (high, medium, low) or two levers (high, low): 1) Demand projected from GDP, population, urbanization and transport, 2) Fossil fuel price, 3) Climate change impact on hydropower, 4) Renewable technology learning rate, 5) Discount rate, 6) CO2 emission targets.

  15. Impact of forecasted changes in Polish economy (2015 and 2020) on nutrient emission into the river basins.

    PubMed

    Pastuszak, Marianna; Kowalkowski, Tomasz; Kopiński, Jerzy; Stalenga, Jarosław; Panasiuk, Damian

    2014-09-15

    Poland, with its large drainage area, with 50% contribution of agricultural land and 45% contribution of population to overall agricultural land area and population number in the Baltic catchment, is the largest exporter of riverine nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the sea. The economic transition has resulted in substantial, statistically significant decline in N, P export from Polish territory to the Baltic Sea. Following the obligations arising from the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) declarations, in the coming years, Poland is expected to reduce riverine N loads by ca. 25% and P loads by ca. 60% as referred to the average flow normalized loads recorded in 1997-2003. The aim of this paper is to estimate annual source apportioned N and P emissions into these river basins in 2015 and 2020 with application of modeling studies (MONERIS). Twelve scenarios, encompassing changes in anthropogenic (diffuse, point source) and natural pressure (precipitation, water outflow due to climate change), have been applied. Modeling outcome for the period 2003-2008 served as our reference material. In applied scenarios, N emission into the Oder basin in 2015 and 2020 shows an increase from 4.2% up to 9.1% as compared with the reference period. N emission into the Vistula basin is more variable and shows an increase by max. 17.8% or a decrease by max. 4.7%, depending on the scenario. The difference between N emission into the Oder and Vistula basins is related to the catchment peculiarities and handling of point sources emission. P emission into both basins shows identical scenario patters and a maximum decrease reaches 17.8% in the Oder and 16.7% in the Vistula basin. Despite a declining tendency in P loads in both rivers in all the scenarios, HELCOM targeted P load reduction is not feasible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  17. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

    PubMed Central

    Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

  18. Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

    2011-12-01

    The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

  19. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    PubMed

    Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  20. Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100. PMID:24391717

  1. Three dimensional inventories of aircraft emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.; Hertel, Peter S.

    1994-01-01

    Three dimensional inventories of fuel burned and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) have been developed on a 1 deg latitude by 1 deg longitude by 1 km altitude grid for scheduled commercial air traffic (passenger jet, cargo, and turboprop aircraft) for 1990 and projected to the year 2015. Emission scenarios have also been calculated for projected fleets of Mach 2 and Mach 2.4 high speed civil transports. The methodology and results are discussed. These emission inventories are now in use in the assessment of aircraft emissions impact by NASA.

  2. On-road vehicle emissions and their control in China: A review and outlook.

    PubMed

    Wu, Ye; Zhang, Shaojun; Hao, Jiming; Liu, Huan; Wu, Xiaomeng; Hu, Jingnan; Walsh, Michael P; Wallington, Timothy J; Zhang, K Max; Stevanovic, Svetlana

    2017-01-01

    The large (26-fold over the past 25years) increase in the on-road vehicle fleet in China has raised sustainability concerns regarding air pollution prevention, energy conservation, and climate change mitigation. China has established integrated emission control policies and measures since the 1990s, including implementation of emission standards for new vehicles, inspection and maintenance programs for in-use vehicles, improvement in fuel quality, promotion of sustainable transportation and alternative fuel vehicles, and traffic management programs. As a result, emissions of major air pollutants from on-road vehicles in China have peaked and are now declining despite increasing vehicle population. As might be expected, progress in addressing vehicle emissions has not always been smooth and challenges such as the lack of low sulfur fuels, frauds over production conformity and in-use inspection tests, and unreliable retrofit programs have been encountered. Considering the high emission density from vehicles in East China, enhanced vehicle, fuel and transportation strategies will be required to address vehicle emissions in China. We project the total vehicle population in China to reach 400-500 million by 2030. Serious air pollution problems in many cities of China, in particular high ambient PM 2.5 concentration, have led to pressure to accelerate the progress on vehicle emission reduction. A notable example is the draft China 6 emission standard released in May 2016, which contains more stringent emission limits than those in the Euro 6 regulations, and adds a real world emission testing protocol and a 48-h evaporation testing procedure including diurnal and hot soak emissions. A scenario (PC[1]) considered in this study suggests that increasingly stringent standards for vehicle emissions could mitigate total vehicle emissions of HC, CO, NO X and PM 2.5 in 2030 by approximately 39%, 57%, 59% and 79%, respectively, compared with 2013 levels. With additional actions

  3. HFC-134a Emissions in China: An Inventory for 1995-2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Shenshen; Fang, Xuekun; Wu, Jing; Li, Li; Hu, Jianxin; Han, Jiarui

    2014-05-01

    HFC-134a is the most important substitute of CFC-12 used in the mobile air-conditioner in China since 1995. The bottom-up method was used to estimate HFC-134a emissions in China, from 1995 to 2030, basing on updated automobile industry data and latest emission characters. From 1995, total HFC-134a emission has kept a high growth rate of nearly 60% per year, and reached 16,414.3 Mg (11,959.4-20,834.5 Mg) in 2010, which was equivalent to 23.5 Mt CO2-eq emissions. Furthermore, the emissions in China accounted for nearly half of total emissions of Non-AnnexI countries in 2008. As for provincial emissions in 2010, provinces with emission greater than 1,000 Mg are Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu and Beijing. Quantitative relationship between provincial HFC-134a emissions and GRP of the Tertiary Industry was used to estimate HFC-134a emissions at county level, and Hangzhou municipal district held the maximum emission intensity (4,605 Mg/10,000 km2). For HFC-134a, emissions calculated from the observations within 46 cities through Euler box model are in good agreement with the corresponding emissions estimated from the bottom-up method, verifying that the emission inventory at county level adequately describes the emission spatial pattern. For the future emissions of HFC-134a, projected emissions will reach 89,370.4 Mg (65,959.7- 114,068.2 Mg) in 2030 under the Business-as-usual (BAU) Scenario, but under the Alternative Scenario, a emission reduction potential of 88.6% of the projected BAU emissions would be obtained.

  4. Historical and projected emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-410A from China's room air conditioning sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ziyuan; Fang, Xuekun; Li, Li; Bie, Pengju; Li, Zhifang; Hu, Jianxin; Zhang, Boya; Zhang, Jianbo

    2016-05-01

    Recent decades witnessed the increase in production and uses of HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane, CHClF2) and its alternative, HFC-410A (a blend of difluoromethane and pentafluoroethane), in China in response to the booming of room air conditioners (RACs) for both domestic use and exports. HCFC-22 is an ozone-depleting substance under the Montreal Protocol, while both HCFC-22 and HFC-410A are greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study provides a most comprehensive consumption and emission inventory of refrigerants emissions (HCFC-22 and HFC-410A) from RAC sector during 1995-2014, for the first time. Our estimates show that HCFC-22 emissions increased from 0.7 Gg/yr in 1995 to 48.2 Gg/yr in 2014. The accumulative emissions contributed to global total HCFCs emissions by 4.4% (3.3%-6.1%) CFC-11-equivalent (CFC-11-eq) and 5.4% (4.1%-7.5%) CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq) during 1995-2012. If left uncontrolled, accumulative emissions of HFC-410A will be12.4 (7.1-20.2) CO2-eq Pg during 2015-2050, which can offset the global climate benefits achieved by the Montreal Protocol. The HFC-410A emissions from China's RAC sector are estimated to be of importance to both global HFCs emissions and China's GHG emissions. Further, we probed the emission mitigation performances of the current 2014 North American Proposal scenario and a modified more ambitious scenario. The emissions of two mitigation scenarios are only 28% and 22% of the emissions without mitigation actions, respectively. This study is the first effort to map the transition of eliminated substance HCFC-22 and its alternative HFC-410A in RAC sector. Therefore, alternative chemicals should be scrutinized with cautions before they are promoted and applied.

  5. Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

    DOE Data Explorer

    Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

  6. Suppressing 1.06- μm spontaneous emission of neodymium ions using a novel tellurite all-solid photonic bandgap fiber

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tong, Hoang Tuan; Demichi, Daisuke; Nagasaka, Kenshiro; Suzuki, Takenobu; Ohishi, Yasutake

    2018-05-01

    In order to take advantage of the 1.3- μm emission of neodymium (Nd3+) ions for many practical applications, we propose a tellurite all-solid photonic bandgap fiber (ASPBGF) to filter out the competing emission at 1.06 μm which is most prominent in the emission spectrum of Nd3+ ion. A novel Nd3+-doped tellurite ASPBGF is fabricated by using our developed tellurite glasses which have high compatibility of thermal properties and their refractive index difference is 0.096 at 1320 nm. The fiber is designed with 4 layers of high-index rods to have low confinement loss. The measured transmission spectrum of a 2.2-cm-long section of the fabricated fiber exhibits high transmission bands near 0.75 and 1.33 μm (about -20 dB and -19 dB) and a low transmission band in the vicinity of 1.06 μm which is about -27 dB. By using our fabricated Nd3+-doped tellurite ASPBGF, it is demonstrated for the first time that the 1.06- μm emission peak due to the 4F3/2→4I11/2 transition of Nd3+ ions is greatly suppressed about 12 times as compared to that obtained by using a bulk samples with the same doping concentration.

  7. New land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazonia: how to reach a sustainable future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguiar, A. P. D.; Vieira, I.; Toledo, P.; Araujo, R.; Coelho, A.; Pinho, P.; Assis, T.; Dalla-Nora, E. L.; Kawakami Savaget, E.; Batistella, M.

    2014-12-01

    Following an intense deforestation process initiated in the 1960s, clear-cut deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring and control systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Although regional social indicators have also slightly improved, society remains unequal and violent, both in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the combined results of the fall of deforestation and the increased economic importance of the agribusiness sector have led to the political weakening of the so-called socio-environmental model. Thus, the current situation indicates a future of low (clear-cut) carbon emissions and low social conditions. On the other hand, other threats remain, including forest degradation derived from illegal logging and forest fires. There is also considerable uncertainty about the fate of the remaining forest areas as multiple forces can contribute to the return of high deforestation, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We present the results of a participatory scenario process, in which we discussed the future of the region until 2050 combining normative and exploratory approaches. We include an ideal "Sustainability" scenario (Scenario A) in which we envision major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental achievements. Scenario B stays in the "Middle of the road", in which the society maintains some of the positive environmental trends of the last decade, but not reversing the structural situation of social inequities. Scenario C is a pessimistic vision, named "Fragmentation" with high deforestation rates and low social development. The goal of the work was twofold: (a) to propose a method to enrich the discussion among different private and governmental stakeholders

  8. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  9. Expected ozone benefits of reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units in the eastern United States.

    PubMed

    Vinciguerra, Timothy; Bull, Emily; Canty, Timothy; He, Hao; Zalewsky, Eric; Woodman, Michael; Aburn, George; Ehrman, Sheryl; Dickerson, Russell R

    2017-03-01

    On hot summer days in the eastern United States, electricity demand rises, mainly because of increased use of air conditioning. Power plants must provide this additional energy, emitting additional pollutants when meteorological conditions are primed for poor air quality. To evaluate the impact of summertime NO x emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units (EGUs) on surface ozone formation, we performed a series of sensitivity modeling forecast scenarios utilizing EPA 2018 version 6.0 emissions (2011 base year) and CMAQ v5.0.2. Coal-fired EGU NO x emissions were adjusted to match the lowest NO x rates observed during the ozone seasons (April 1-October 31) of 2005-2012 (Scenario A), where ozone decreased by 3-4 ppb in affected areas. When compared to the highest emissions rates during the same time period (Scenario B), ozone increased ∼4-7 ppb. NO x emission rates adjusted to match the observed rates from 2011 (Scenario C) increased ozone by ∼4-5 ppb. Finally in Scenario D, the impact of additional NO x reductions was determined by assuming installation of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) controls on all units lacking postcombustion controls; this decreased ozone by an additional 2-4 ppb relative to Scenario A. Following the announcement of a stricter 8-hour ozone standard, this analysis outlines a strategy that would help bring coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region closer to attainment, and would also provide profound benefits for upwind states where most of the regional EGU NO x originates, even if additional capital investments are not made (Scenario A). With the 8-hr maximum ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) decreasing from 75 to 70 ppb, modeling results indicate that use of postcombustion controls on coal-fired power plants in 2018 could help keep regions in attainment. By operating already existing nitrogen oxide (NO x ) removal devices to their full potential, ozone could be significantly curtailed, achieving ozone

  10. The Effect of Converting to a U.S. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Fleet on Emissions and Energy Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colella, W. G.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Golden, D. M.

    2004-12-01

    This study analyzes the potential change in emissions and energy use from replacing fossil-fuel based vehicles with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. This study examines three different hydrogen production scenarios to determine their resultant emissions and energy usage: hydrogen produced via 1) steam reforming of methane, 2) coal gasification, or 3) wind electrolysis. The atmospheric model simulations require two primary sets of data: the actual emissions associated with hydrogen fuel production and use, and the corresponding reduction in emissions associated with reducing fossil fuel use. The net change in emissions is derived using 1) the U.S. EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI) that incorporates several hundred categories of on-road vehicles and 2) a Process Chain Analysis (PCA) for the different hydrogen production scenarios. NEI: The quantity of hydrogen-related emission is ultimately a function of the projected hydrogen consumption in on-road vehicles. Data for hydrogen consumption from on-road vehicles was derived from the number of miles driven in each U.S. county based on 1999 NEI data, the average fleet mileage of all on-road vehicles, the average gasoline vehicle efficiency, and the efficiency of advanced 2004 fuel cell vehicles. PCA: PCA involves energy and mass balance calculations around the fuel extraction, production, transport, storage, and delivery processes. PCA was used to examine three different hydrogen production scenarios: In the first scenario, hydrogen is derived from natural gas, which is extracted from gas fields, stored, chemically processed, and transmitted through pipelines to distributed fuel processing units. The fuel processing units, situated in similar locations as gasoline refueling stations, convert natural gas to hydrogen via a combination of steam reforming and fuel oxidation. Purified hydrogen is compressed for use onboard fuel cell vehicles. In the second scenario, hydrogen is derived from coal, which is extracted from

  11. ICLUS v1.3 Population Projections

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Climate and land-use change are major components of global environmental change with feedbacks between these components. The consequences of these interactions show that land use may exacerbate or alleviate climate change effects. Based on these findings it is important to use land-use scenarios that are consistent with the specific assumptions underlying climate-change scenarios. The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project developed land-use outputs that are based on a downscaled version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines. ICLUS outputs are derived from a pair of models. A demographic model generates county-level population estimates that are distributed by a spatial allocation model (SERGoM v3) as housing density across the landscape. Land-use outputs were developed for the four main SRES storylines and a baseline (base case). The model is run for the conterminous USA and output is available for each scenario by decade to 2100. In addition to housing density at a 1 hectare spatial resolution, this project also generated estimates of impervious surface at a resolution of 1 square kilometer. This shapefile holds population data for all counties of the conterminous USA for all decades (2010-2100) and SRES population growth scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2), as well as a 'base case' (BC) scenario, for use in the Integrated Climate and Land Use

  12. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  13. Optical Spectroscopy of SDSS J004054.65-0915268: Three Possible Scenarios for the Classification. A z ˜ 5 BL Lacertae, a Blue FSRQ, or a Weak Emission Line Quasar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.; Tavecchio, F.; Bonnoli, G.; Ghisellini, G.

    2016-02-01

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ˜ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C IV broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed, building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk.

  14. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    facing environmental change processes that are emerging as some of the most pressing challenges of our time. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and the US Environmental Protection Agency for financially supporting publication of this focus issue. Focus on Global Environmental Scenarios Contents Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios? Mike Hulme and Suraje Dessai Learning from global emissions scenarios Brian C O'Neill and Nebojsa Nakicenovic Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling Yaakov Garb, Simone Pulver and Stacy D VanDeveer Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges E A Parson Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow Notes Note1 The workshop was held in March 2007, jointly sponsored by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, and the US National Intelligence Council. See http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/ for more information.

  15. MODELING THE HARD TeV SPECTRA OF BLAZARS 1ES 0229+200 AND 3C 66A WITH AN INTERNAL ABSORPTION SCENARIO

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zacharopoulou, O.; Aharonian, F. A.; Khangulyan, D.

    2011-09-10

    We study the applicability of the idea of internal absorption of {gamma}-rays produced through synchrotron radiation of ultrarelativistic protons in highly magnetized blobs to 1ES 0229+200 and 3C 66A, the two TeV blazars which show unusually hard intrinsic {gamma}-ray spectra after being corrected for the intergalactic absorption. We show that for certain combinations of reasonable model parameters, even with quite modest energy requirements, the scenario allows a self-consistent explanation of the non-thermal emission of these objects in the keV, GeV, and TeV energy bands.

  16. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  17. Impact of antioxidant additives on the performance and emission characteristics of C.I engine fuelled with B20 blend of rice bran biodiesel.

    PubMed

    Alagu, Karthikeyan; Nagappan, Beemkumar; Jayaraman, Jayaprabakar; Arul GnanaDhas, Anderson

    2018-04-17

    This manuscript presents the impact of addition of antioxidant additives to rice bran biodiesel blend on the performance and emission characteristics of compression ignition (C.I) engine. Rice bran methyl ester (RBME) was produced from rice bran oil by transesterification using sodium hydroxide as catalyst. An experimental investigation was conducted on a single-cylinder four-stroke C.I engine to analyze the performance and emission characteristics of rice bran methyl ester (RBME) blended with diesel at 20% by volume (B20) with and without addition of 1000 ppm of two monophenolic antioxidant additives, butylated hydroxyanisole (BHA) and butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT). The results showed that the BHA- and BHT-treated B20 blend decreased the brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC) by 2.1 and 1.2% and increased the brake thermal efficiency (BTE) by 1.04 and 0.5% compared to B20. The BHA- and BHT-treated B20 blend produced mean reductions in NOx emission of 12.2 and 9.6%, respectively, compared to B20. The carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions of BHA- and BHT-treated B20 were increased by 14.8-16.6% and 10.6-11.2%, respectively, compared to B20. However the emission levels were lower than those of diesel.

  18. Confronting GRB prompt emission with a model for subphotospheric dissipation

    DOE PAGES

    Ahlgren, Björn; Larsson, Josefin; Nymark, Tanja; ...

    2015-09-16

    The origin of the prompt emission in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is still an unsolved problem and several different mechanisms have been suggested. We fit Fermi GRB data with a photospheric emission model which includes dissipation of the jet kinetic energy below the photosphere. The resulting spectra are dominated by Comptonization and contain no significant contribution from synchrotron radiation. In order to fit to the data, we span a physically motivated part of the model's parameter space and create DREAM (Dissipation with Radiative Emission as A table Model), a table model for XSPEC. Here, we show that this model can describemore » different kinds of GRB spectra, including GRB 090618, representing a typical Band function spectrum, and GRB 100724B, illustrating a double peaked spectrum, previously fitted with a Band+blackbody model, suggesting they originate from a similar scenario. We also suggest that the main difference between these two types of bursts is the optical depth at the dissipation site.« less

  19. Emissions of indoor air pollutants from six user scenarios in a model room

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höllbacher, Eva; Ters, Thomas; Rieder-Gradinger, Cornelia; Srebotnik, Ewald

    2017-02-01

    In this study six common user scenarios putatively influencing indoor air quality were performed in a model room constructed according to the specifications of the European Reference Room given in the new horizontal prestandard prEN 16516 to gain further information about the influence of user activities on indoor air quality. These scenarios included the use of cleaning agent, an electric air freshener, an ethanol fireplace and cosmetics as well as cigarette smoking and peeling of oranges. Four common indoor air pollutants were monitored: volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter (PM), carbonyl compounds and CO2. The development of all pollutants was determined during and after the test performance. For each measured pollutant, well-defined maximum values could be assigned to one or more of the individual user scenarios. The highest VOC concentration was measured during orange-peeling reaching a maximum value of 3547 μg m-3. Carbonyl compounds and PM were strongly elevated while cigarette smoking. Here, a maximum formaldehyde concentration of 76 μg m-3 and PM concentration of 378 μg m-3 were measured. CO2 was only slightly affected by most of the tests except the use of the ethanol fireplace where a maximum concentration of 1612 ppm was reached. Generally, the user scenarios resulted in a distinct increase of several indoor pollutants that usually decreased rapidly after the removal of the source.

  20. R modes and neutron star recycling scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chugunov, A. I.; Gusakov, M. E.; Kantor, E. M.

    2017-06-01

    To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse the formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of MSPs and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at the redshifted internal temperatures T ∞ ˜ 108 K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here, we argue that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures.). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b), combined with the theory of internal heating and NS cooling, provides evidence of enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, T ∞ ˜ 2 × 107 K. Observational set (c) allows us to set an upper limit on the internal temperatures of MSPs, T ∞ < 2 × 107 K (assuming a canonical NS with the accreted crust). Recycling scenario can produce MSPs at these temperatures only if r-mode instability is suppressed in the whole MSP spin frequency range (ν ≲ 750 Hz) at temperatures 2 × 107 ≲ T ∞ ≲ 3 × 107 K, providing thus a new constraint on the r-mode instability window. These observational constraints are analysed in more details in application to the resonance uplift scenario of Gusakov et al.

  1. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic withinmore » each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm –2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.« less

  2. The physical and chemical structure of Sagittarius B2. II. Continuum millimeter emission of Sgr B2(M) and Sgr B2(N) with ALMA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez-Monge, Á.; Schilke, P.; Schmiedeke, A.; Ginsburg, A.; Cesaroni, R.; Lis, D. C.; Qin, S.-L.; Müller, H. S. P.; Bergin, E.; Comito, C.; Möller, Th.

    2017-07-01

    Context. The two hot molecular cores Sgr B2(M) and Sgr B2(N), which are located at the center of the giant molecular cloud complex Sagittarius B2, have been the targets of numerous spectral line surveys, revealing a rich and complex chemistry. Aims: We seek to characterize the physical and chemical structure of the two high-mass star-forming sites Sgr B2(M) and Sgr B2(N) using high-angular resolution observations at millimeter wavelengths, reaching spatial scales of about 4000 au. Methods: We used the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) to perform an unbiased spectral line survey of both regions in the ALMA band 6 with a frequency coverage from 211 GHz to 275 GHz. The achieved angular resolution is 0.̋4, which probes spatial scales of about 4000 au, I.e., able to resolve different cores and fragments. In order to determine the continuum emission in these line-rich sources, we used a new statistical method, STATCONT, which has been applied successfully to this and other ALMA datasets and to synthetic observations. Results: We detect 27 continuum sources in Sgr B2(M) and 20 sources in Sgr B2(N). We study the continuum emission variation across the ALMA band 6 (I.e., spectral index) and compare the ALMA 1.3 mm continuum emission with previous SMA 345 GHz and VLA 40 GHz observations to study the nature of the sources detected. The brightest sources are dominated by (partially optically thick) dust emission, while there is an important degree of contamination from ionized gas free-free emission in weaker sources. While the total mass in Sgr B2(M) is distributed in many fragments, most of the mass in Sgr B2(N) arises from a single object, with filamentary-like structures converging toward the center. There seems to be a lack of low-mass dense cores in both regions. We determine H2 volume densities for the cores of about 107-109 cm-3 (or 105-107 M⊙ pc-3), I.e., one to two orders of magnitude higher than the stellar densities of super star clusters. We

  3. Permafrost thaw strongly reduces allowable CO2 emissions for 1.5°C and 2°C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kechiar, M.; Gasser, T.; Kleinen, T.; Ciais, P.; Huang, Y.; Burke, E.; Obersteiner, M.

    2017-12-01

    We quantify how the inclusion of carbon emission from permafrost thaw impacts the budgets of allowable anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 which we expand with a permafrost module calibrated to emulate the behavior of the complex models JSBACH, ORCHIDEE and JULES. When using the "exceedance" method and with permafrost thaw turned off, we find budgets very close to the CMIP5 models' estimates reported by IPCC. With permafrost thaw turned on, the total budgets are reduced by 3-4%. This corresponds to a 33-45% reduction of the remaining budget for 1.5°C, and a 9-13% reduction for 2°C. When using the "avoidance" method, however, permafrost thaw reduces the total budget by 3-7%, which corresponds to reductions by 33-56% and 56-79% of the remaining budget for 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively. The avoidance method relies on many scenarios that actually peak below the target whereas the exceedance method overlooks the carbon emitted by thawed permafrost after the temperature target is reached, which explains the difference. If we use only the subset of scenarios in which there is no net negative emissions, the permafrost-induced reduction in total budgets rises to 6-15%. Permafrost thaw therefore makes the emission budgets strongly path-dependent. We also estimate budgets of needed carbon capture in scenarios overshooting the temperature targets. Permafrost thaw strongly increases these capture budgets: in the case of a 1.5°C target overshot by 0.5°C, which is in line with the Paris agreement, about 30% more carbon must be captured. Our conclusions are threefold. First, inclusion of permafrost thaw systematically reduces the emission budgets, and very strongly so if the temperature target is overshot. Second, the exceedance method, that is the only one that complex models can follow, only partially accounts for the effect of slow non-linear processes such as permafrost thaw, leading to overestimated budgets. Third, the newfound

  4. Greenhouse gas emissions during MSW landfilling in China: influence of waste characteristics and LFG treatment measures.

    PubMed

    Yang, Na; Zhang, Hua; Shao, Li-Ming; Lü, Fan; He, Pin-Jing

    2013-11-15

    Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment can be highly cost-effective in terms of GHG mitigation. This study investigated GHG emissions during MSW landfilling in China under four existing scenarios and in terms of seven different categories: waste collection and transportation, landfill management, leachate treatment, fugitive CH4 (FM) emissions, substitution of electricity production, carbon sequestration and N2O and CO emissions. GHG emissions from simple sanitary landfilling technology where no landfill gas (LFG) extraction took place (Scenario 1) were higher (641-998 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww) than those from open dump (Scenario 0, 480-734 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww). This was due to the strictly anaerobic conditions in Scenario 1. LFG collection and treatment reduced GHG emissions to 448-684 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 2 (with LFG flare) and 214-277 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 3 (using LFG for electricity production). Amongst the seven categories, FM was the predominant contributor to GHG emissions. Global sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the parameters associated with waste characteristics (i.e. CH4 potential and carbon sequestered faction) and LFG management (i.e. LFG collection efficiency and CH4 oxidation efficiency) were of great importance. A further learning on the MSW in China indicated that water content and dry matter content of food waste were the basic factors affecting GHG emissions. Source separation of food waste, as well as increasing the incineration ratio of mixed collected MSW, could effectively mitigate the overall GHG emissions from landfilling in a specific city. To increase the LFG collection and CH4 oxidation efficiencies could considerably reduce GHG emissions on the landfill site level. While, the improvement in the LFG utilization measures had an insignificant impact as long as the LFG is recovered for energy generation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Impacts of the Minamata Convention for Mercury Emissions from Coal-fired Power Generation in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giang, A.; Stokes, L. C.; Streets, D. G.; Corbitt, E. S.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We explore the potential implications of the recently signed United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from coal-fired power generation in Asia, and the impacts of these emissions changes on deposition of mercury worldwide by 2050. We use qualitative interviews, document analysis, and engineering analysis to create plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention, taking into account both technological and political factors. We translate these scenarios into possible emissions inventories for 2050, based on IPCC development scenarios, and then use the GEOS-Chem global transport model to evaluate the effect of these different technology choices on mercury deposition over geographic regions and oceans. We find that China is most likely to address mercury control through co-benefits from technologies for SO2, NOx, and particulate matter (PM) capture that will be required to attain its existing air quality goals. In contrast, India is likely to focus on improvements to plant efficiency such as upgrading boilers, and coal washing. Compared to current technologies, we project that these changes will result in emissions decreases of approximately 140 and 190 Mg/yr for China and India respectively in 2050, under an A1B development scenario. With these emissions reductions, simulated average gross deposition over India and China are reduced by approximately 10 and 3 μg/m2/yr respectively, and the global average concentration of total gaseous mercury (TGM) is reduced by approximately 10% in the Northern hemisphere. Stricter, but technologically feasible, requirements for mercury control in both countries could lead to an additional 200 Mg/yr of emissions reductions. Modeled differences in concentration and deposition patterns between technology suites are due to differences in both the mercury removal efficiency of technologies and their resulting stack speciation.

  6. Future anthropogenic pollutant emissions in a Mediterranean port city with emphasis on the maritime sector emissions - Study of the impact on the city air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Markakis, Konstantinos; Giannaros, Theodoros; Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Melas, Dimitrios

    2013-04-01

    traffic changes as foreseen for the year 2020 by the Port Authority Investment Plan and by the reduction of the sulfur content in fuels used by ships in cruising mode to 0.5% m/m according to a revision of the MARPOL Annex VI. Based on the above, an approximately 60% increase in the future maritime sector PM10 emissions is expected due to the high increase of the traffic of vessels. The impact of future emissions on the air quality of Thessaloniki is examined with the use of the modelling system WRF-CAMx applied with 2km spatial resolution over the study area. Simulations of the modelling system are performed for a summertime (July 2011) and a wintertime (15 November to 15 December 2011) period accounting for present time (scenario A) and future time (scenario B) pollutant emissions. The differences in pollutant levels (mainly PM) between the scenarios examined are presented and discussed.

  7. Allocation and simulation study of carbon emission quotas among China's provinces in 2020.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xing; Guan, Xueling; Zhang, Ming; Zhou, Yao; Zhou, Meihua

    2017-03-01

    China will form its carbon market in 2017 to focus on the allocation of regional carbon emission quota in order to cope with global warming. The rationality of the regional allocation has become an important consideration for the government in ensuring stable growth in different regions that are experiencing disparity in resource endowment and economic status. Based on constructing the quota allocation indicator system for carbon emission, the emission quota for each province in different scenarios and schemes in 2020 is simulated by the multifactor hybrid weighted Shannon entropy allocation model. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The top 5 secondary-level indicators that influence provincial quota allocation in weight are as follows: per capita energy consumption, openness, per capita carbon emission, per capita disposable income, and energy intensity. (2) The ratio of carbon emission in 2020 is different from that in 2013 in many scenarios, and the variation is scenario 2 > scenario 1 > scenario 3, with Hubei and Guangdong the provinces with the largest increase and decrease ratios, respectively. (3) In the same scenario, the quota allocation varies in different reduction criteria emphases; if the government emphasizes reduction efficiency, scheme 1 will show obvious adjustment, that is, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, and Yunnan will have the largest decrease. The amounts are 4.28, 8.31, 4.04, and 5.97 million tons, respectively.

  8. Investigating GHGs and VOCs emissions from a shale gas industry in Germany and the UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cremonese, L.; Weger, L.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Bartels, M. P.; Butler, T. M.

    2017-12-01

    The shale gas and shale oil production boom experienced in the US led the country to a significant reduction of foreign fuel imports and an increase in domestic energy security. Several European countries are considering to extract domestic shale gas reserves that might serve as a bridge in the transition to renewables. Nevertheless, the generation of shale gas leads to emissions of CH4 and pollutants such as PM, NOx and VOCs, which in turn impact local and regional air quality and climate. Results from numerous studies investigating greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions from shale oil and shale gas extraction in North America can help in estimating the impact of such industrial activity elsewhere, when local regulations are taken into consideration. In order to investigate the extent of emissions and their distribution from a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom, we develop three drilling scenarios compatible with desired national gas outputs based on available geological information on potential productivity ranges of the reservoirs. Subsequently we assign activity data and emissions factors to wells under development, as well as to producing wells (from activities at the well site up until processing plants) to enable emissions quantification. We then define emissions scenarios to explore different shale gas development pathways: 1) implementation of "high-technology" devices and recovery practices (low emissions); 2) implementation of "low-technology" devices and recovery practices (high emissions), and 3) intermediate scenarios reflecting assumptions on local and national settings, or extremely high emission events (e.g. super-emitters); all with high and low boundaries of confidence driven by uncertainties. A comparison of these unconventional gas production scenarios to conventional natural gas production in Germany and the United Kingdom is also planned. The aim of this work is to highlight important variables and their ranges, to

  9. Impact of passenger car NOx emissions and NO2 fractions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for the city of Antwerp, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

    2016-02-01

    The annual NO2 concentrations in many European cities exceed the established air quality standard. This situation is mainly caused by Diesel cars whose NOx emissions are higher on the road than during type approval in the laboratory. Moreover, the fraction of NO2 in the NOx emissions of modern diesel cars appears to have increased as compared to previous models. In this paper, we assess 1) to which level the distance-specific NOx emissions of Diesel cars should be reduced to meet established air quality standards and 2) if it would be useful to introduce a complementary NO2 emissions limit. We develop a NO2 pollution model that accounts in an analysis of 9 emission scenarios for changes in both, the urban background NO2 concentrations and the local NO2 emissions at street level. We apply this model to the city of Antwerp, Belgium. The results suggest that a reduction in NOx emissions decreases the regional and urban NO2 background concentration; high NO2 fractions increase the ambient NO2 concentrations only in close spatial proximity to the emission source. In a busy access road to the city centre, the average NO2 concentration can be reduced by 23% if Diesel cars emitted 0.35 g NOx/km instead of the current 0.62 g NOx/km. Reductions of 45% are possible if the NOX emissions of Diesel cars decreased to the level of gasoline cars (0.03 g NOx/km). Our findings suggest that the Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) test procedure can solve the problem of NO2 exceedances in cities if it reduced the on-road NOx emissions of diesel cars to the permissible limit of 0.08 g/km. The implementation of a complementary NO2 emissions limit may then become superfluous. If Diesel cars continue to exceed by several factors their NOx emissions limit on the road, a shift of the vehicle fleet to gasoline cars may be necessary to solve persisting air quality problems.

  10. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  11. Greenhouse gas emissions of waste management processes and options: A case study.

    PubMed

    de la Barrera, Belen; Hooda, Peter S

    2016-07-01

    Increasing concern about climate change is prompting organisations to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions. Waste management activities also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. In the waste management sector, there has been an increasing diversion of waste sent to landfill, with much emphasis on recycling and reuse to prevent emissions. This study evaluates the carbon footprint of the different processes involved in waste management systems, considering the entire waste management stream. Waste management data from the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames, London (UK), was used to estimate the carbon footprint for its (Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames) current source segregation system. Second, modelled full and partial co-mingling scenarios were used to estimate carbon emissions from these proposed waste management approaches. The greenhouse gas emissions from the entire waste management system at Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames were 12,347 t CO2e for the source-segregated scenario, and 11,907 t CO2e for the partial co-mingled model. These emissions amount to 203.26 kg CO2e t(-1) and 196.02 kg CO2e t(-1) municipal solid waste for source-segregated and partial co-mingled, respectively. The change from a source segregation fleet to a partial co-mingling fleet reduced the emissions, at least partly owing to a change in the number and type of vehicles. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. 40 CFR 60.34b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor operating practices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for carbon monoxide at least as protective as the emission limits for carbon monoxide listed in table 3 of this subpart. table 3 provides emission limits for the carbon monoxide concentration level for each type of designated facility. (b) For approval, a...

  13. Characterization of particle emission from laser printers.

    PubMed

    Scungio, Mauro; Vitanza, Tania; Stabile, Luca; Buonanno, Giorgio; Morawska, Lidia

    2017-05-15

    Emission of particles from laser printers in office environments is claimed to have impact on human health due to likelihood of exposure to high particle concentrations in such indoor environments. In the present paper, particle emission characteristics of 110 laser printers from different manufacturers were analyzed, and estimations of their emission rates were made on the basis of measurements of total concentrations of particles emitted by the printers placed in a chamber, as well as particle size distributions. The emission rates in terms of number, surface area and mass were found to be within the ranges from 3.39×10 8 partmin -1 to 1.61×10 12 partmin -1 , 1.06×10 0 mm 2 min -1 to 1.46×10 3 mm 2 min -1 and 1.32×10 -1 μgmin -1 to 1.23×10 2 μgmin -1 , respectively, while the median mode value of the emitted particles was found equal to 34nm. In addition, the effect of laser printing emissions in terms of employees' exposure in offices was evaluated on the basis of the emission rates, by calculating the daily surface area doses (as sum of alveolar and tracheobronchial deposition fraction) received assuming a typical printing scenario. In such typical printing conditions, a relatively low total surface area dose (2.7mm 2 ) was estimated for office employees with respect to other indoor microenvironments including both workplaces and homes. Nonetheless, for severe exposure conditions, characterized by operating parameters falling beyond the typical values (i.e. smaller office, lower ventilation, printer located on the desk, closer to the person, higher printing frequency etc.), significantly higher doses are expected. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Urinary 1-hydroxypyrene concentration as an exposure biomarker to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Mexican women from different hot spot scenarios and health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pruneda-Álvarez, Lucia G; Pérez-Vázquez, Francisco J; Ruíz-Vera, Tania; Ochoa-Martínez, Ángeles C; Orta-García, Sandra T; Jiménez-Avalos, Jorge A; Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N

    2016-04-01

    Recently, in developing countries, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been considered contaminants of grave concern for women and children. Therefore, the aim of this study was twofold: (1) evaluate exposure assessment to PAHs using urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) as an exposure biomarker and (2) perform a health risk assessment in women from four different high risk scenarios in Mexico. From 2012 to 2013, in a cross-sectional study, we evaluated a total of 184 healthy women from the following scenarios: (A) indoor biomass combustion site (n = 50); (B) brick manufacturing site using different materials such as fuel sources (n = 70); (C) industrial site (n = 44); and (D) high vehicular traffic site (n = 20). 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) was quantified using a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) technique. Afterward, a probabilistic health risk assessment was performed (Monte Carlo analysis). Mean urinary 1-OHP levels found were 0.92 ± 0.92; 0.91 ± 0.83; 0.22 ± 0.19; and 0.14 ± 0.17 μg/L for scenario A, B, C, and D, respectively. Then, based on the measured urinary 1-OHP levels, the estimated median daily intake doses of pyrene were calculated: 659, 623, 162, and 77.4 ng/kg/day for the women participating in the study living in areas A, B, C, and D, respectively, and finally, the hazard quotient (HQ) was calculated (22 ± 21, 21 ± 20, 5.5 ± 5.5, and 2.6 ± 3.5; for areas A, B, C, and D, respectively), high health risk was noted for the women living in the studied communities. The data shown in this study (exposure levels to PAHs and health risk assessment) made it reasonable to conclude that the exposure levels found have a significant potential for generating adverse effects on human health in the studied scenarios.

  15. [Prediction of heat-related mortality impacts under climate change scenarios in Shanghai].

    PubMed

    Guo, Ya-fei; Li, Tian-tian; Cheng, Yan-li; Ge, Tan-xi; Chen, Chen; Liu, Fan

    2012-11-01

    To project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in shanghai. The statistical downscaling techniques were applied to simulate the daily mean temperatures of Shanghai in the middle and farther future under the changing climate. Based on the published exposure-reaction relationship of temperature and mortality in Shanghai, we projected the heat-related mortality in the middle and farther future under the circumstance of high speed increase of carbon e mission (A2) and low speed increase of carbon emission (B2). The data of 1961 to 1990 was used to establish the model, and the data of 1991 - 2001 was used to testify the model, and then the daily mean temperature from 2030 to 2059 and from 2070 to 2099 were simulated and the heat-related mortality was projected. The data resources were from U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis Data in SDSM Website and UK Hadley Centre Coupled Model Data in SDSM Website. The explained variance and the standard error of the established model was separately 98.1% and 1.24°C. The R(2) value of the simulated trend line equaled to 0.978 in Shanghai, as testified by the model. Therefore, the temperature prediction model simulated daily mean temperatures well. Under A2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.9°C and 20.4°C, respectively, increasing by 1.1°C and 3.6°C when compared to baseline period (16.8°C). Under B2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.8°C and 19.1°C, respectively, increasing by 1.0°C and 2.3°C when compared to baseline period (16.8°C). Under A2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were projected to be 516 cases and 1191 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 53.6% and 254.5% when compared with baseline period (336 cases). Under B2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were

  16. Impact of passenger car NOX emissions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for 8 European cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

    2017-12-01

    Residents of large European cities are exposed to NO2 concentrations that often exceed the established air quality standards. Diesel cars have been identified as a major contributor to this situation; yet, it remains unclear to which levels the NOX emissions of diesel cars have to decrease to effectively mitigate urban NO2 pollution across Europe. Here, we take a continental perspective and model urban NO2 pollution in a generic street canyon of 8 major European cities for various NOX emission scenarios. We find that a reduction in the on-road NOX emissions of diesel cars to the Euro 6 level can in general decrease the regional and urban NO2 concentrations and thereby the frequency of exceedances of the NO2 air quality standard. High NO2 fractions in the NOX emissions of diesel cars tend to increase the urban NO2 concentrations only in proximity of intense road traffic typically found on artery roads in large cities like Paris and London. In cities with a low share of diesel cars in the vehicle fleet such as Athens or a high contribution from the NO2 background to the urban NO2 pollution such as Krakow, measures addressing heavy-duty vehicles, and the manufacturing, energy, and mining industry are necessary to decrease urban air pollution. We regard our model results as robust albeit subject to uncertainty resulting from the application of a generic street layout. With small modifications in the input parameters, our model could be used to assess the impact of NOX emissions from road transport on NO2 air pollution in any European city.

  17. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  18. Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

  19. Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

    Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

  20. A study of emissions from passenger cars in six cities. Volume B. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1979-01-01

    This is the second of two volumes presenting results from a series of exhaust emission and fuel economy tests performed on a representative sample of vehicles in six U.S. cities. Data presented in the following sections are generated in appendix form as part of a contract with the EPA to perform work for the FY 77 Passenger Car Emission Factor Program. Volume B includes the balance of individual vehicle data derived from the Two Speed Idle and Federal Three Mode tests. It also includes the results of Vehicle Driveability Evaluations, Maladjustment and Disablement Inspections, tire inspections and a listing ofmore » comparative mileage data. Information presented in Volume B should not be interpreted without the benefit of additional descriptive data presented in Volume A as both volumes comprise the results of a single work effort and are not intended to be considered separately.« less

  1. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page; ...

    2017-02-27

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that applymore » a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

  2. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that applymore » a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

  3. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K; Kheshgi, Haroon S

    2017-03-21

    The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

  4. A spatial modeling framework to evaluate domestic biofuel-induced potential land use changed and emissions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Elliot, Joshua; Sharma, Bhavna; Best, Neil; Glotter, Michael; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Foster, Ian; Miguez, Fernando; Mueller, Steffen; Wang, Michael

    2014-01-01

    We present a novel bottom-up approach to estimate biofuel-induced land-use change (LUC) and resulting CO2 emissions in the U.S. from 2010 to 2022, based on a consistent methodology across four essential components: land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making, and induced CO2 emissions. Using highresolution geospatial data and modeling, we construct probabilistic assessments of county-, state-, and national-level LUC and emissions for macroeconomic scenarios. We use the Cropland Data Layer and the Protected Areas Database to characterize availability of land for biofuel crop cultivation, and the CERES-Maize and BioCro biophysical crop growth models to estimate the suitability (yield potential) of available lands for biofuel crops. For LUC decisionmaking, we use a county-level stochastic partial-equilibrium modeling framework and consider five scenarios involving annual ethanol production scaling to 15, 22, and 29 BG, respectively, in 2022, with corn providing feedstock for the first 15 BG and the remainder coming from one of two dedicated energy crops. Finally, we derive high-resolution above-ground carbon factors from the National Biomass and Carbon Data set to estimate emissions from each LUC pathway. Based on these inputs, we obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0, 2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 Billion gallons (BG), Miscanthus × giganteus (MxG)-7 BG, Switchgrass (SG)-7 BG, MxG-14 BG, and SG-14 BG scenarios, respectively.

  5. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    PubMed

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  6. Revealing the X-Ray Emission Processes of Old Rotation-Powered Pulsars: XMM-Newton Observations of PSR B0950+08, PSR B0823+26 and PSR J2043+2740

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Becker, Werner; Weisskopf, Martin C.; Tenant, Allyn F.; Jessmer, Axel; Zhang, Shiang N.

    2004-01-01

    We have completed part of a program to study the X-ray emission properties of old rotation-powered pulsars with XMM-Newton in order to probe and identify the origin of their X radiation. The X-ray emission from these old pulsars is largely dominated by non-thermal processes. None of the observed spectra required adding a thermal component consisting of either a hot polar cap or surface cooling emission to model the data. The energy spectrum of PSR B0950+08 is best described by a single power law of photon-index alpha = 1.93(sup +0.14)(sub -0.12). Three-sigma temperature upper limits for possible contributions from a heated polar cap or the whole neutron star surface are T(sup infinity)(sub pc) < 0.87 x 10(exp 6) K and T(sup infinity)(sub s) < 0.48 x 10(exp 6) K, respectively. We also find that the X-ray emission from PSR B0950+08 is pulsed with two peaks per rotation period. The phase separation between the two X-ray peaks is approx. 144 deg (maximum to maximum) which is similar to the pulse peak separation observed in the radio band at 1.4 GHz. The fraction of X-ray pulsed photons is approx. 30%. A phase resolved spectral analysis confirms the nonthermal nature of the pulsed emission and finds power law slopes of alpha = 2.4(sup +0.52)(sub -0.42) and alpha = 1.93(sup +0.29)(sub -0.24) for the pulse peaks P1 and P2, respectively. The spectral emission properties observed for PSR B0823+26 are similar to those of PSR B0950+08. Its energy spectrum is very well described by a single power law with photon-index alpha = 2.5(sup +0.52)(sub -0.24. Three-sigma temperature upper limits for thermal contributions from a hot polar cap or from the entire neutron star surface are T(sup infinity)(sub pc) < 1.17 x 10(exp 6) K and T(sup infinity)(sub s) < 0.5 x 10(exp 6) K, respectively. There is evidence for pulsed X-ray emission at the - 97% confidence level with a pulsed fraction of 49 +/- 22%. For PSR 52043+2740 we report the first detection of X-ray emission. A power law

  7. OPTICAL SPECTROSCOPY OF SDSS J004054.65-0915268: THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE CLASSIFICATION. A z ∼ 5 BL LACERTAE, A BLUE FSRQ, OR A WEAK EMISSION LINE QUASAR

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.

    2016-02-15

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ∼ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C iv broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed,more » building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk.« less

  8. Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

    2016-04-01

    The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature

  9. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  10. Atmospheric dayglow diagnostics involving the O2(b-X) Atmospheric band emission: Global Oxygen and Temperature (GOAT) mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slanger, T. G.; Pejaković, D. A.; Kostko, O.; Matsiev, D.; Kalogerakis, K. S.

    2017-03-01

    The terrestrial dayglow displays prominent emission features from the 0-0 and 1-1 bands of the O2 Atmospheric band system in the 760-780 nm region. We present an analysis of observations in this wavelength region recorded by the Space Shuttle during the Arizona Airglow Experiment. A major conclusion is that the dominant product of O(1D) + O2 energy transfer is O2(b, v = 1), a result that corroborates our previous laboratory studies. Moreover, critical to the interpretation of dayglow is the possible interference by N2 and N2+ bands in the 760-780 nm region, where the single-most important component is the N2 1PG 3-1 band that overlaps with the O2(b-X) 0-0 band. When present, this background must be accounted for to reveal the O2(b-X) 0-0 and 1-1 bands for altitudes at which the O2 and N2/N2+ emissions coincide. Finally, we exploit the very different collisional behavior of the two lowest O2(b) vibrational levels to outline a remote sensing technique that provides information on Atmospheric composition and temperature from space-based observations of the 0-0 and 1-1 O2 atmospheric bands.

  11. Estimation of vehicular emissions using dynamic emission factors: A case study of Delhi, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Dhirendra; Goyal, P.

    2014-12-01

    The estimation of vehicular emissions depends mainly on the values of emission factors, which are used for the development of a comprehensive emission inventory of vehicles. In this study the variations of emission factors as well as the emission rates have been studied in Delhi. The implementation of compressed natural gas (CNG), in the diesel and petrol, public vehicles in the year 2001 has changed the complete air quality scenario of Delhi. The dynamic emission factors of criteria pollutants viz. carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter (PM10) for all types of vehicles have been developed after, which are based on the several factors such as regulated emission limits, number of vehicle deterioration, vehicle increment, vehicle age etc. These emission factors are found to be decreased continuously throughout the study years 2003-2012. The International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model is used to estimate the emissions of criteria pollutants by utilizing a dataset available from field observations at different traffic intersections in Delhi. Thus the vehicular emissions, based on dynamic emission factors have been estimated for the years 2003-2012, which are found to be comparable with the monitored concentrations at different locations in Delhi. It is noticed that the total emissions of CO, NOx, and PM10 are increased by 45.63%, 68.88% and 17.92%, respectively up to the year 2012 and the emissions of NOx and PM10 are grown continuously with an annual average growth rate of 5.4% and 1.7% respectively.

  12. Superradiant laser emission from rhodamine 6G and rhodamine B using a coaxial flashpump.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mumola, P. B.

    1972-01-01

    Superradiant laser emission has been observed from ethanol solutions of rhodamine 6G and rhodamine B using a coaxial flashlamp pump. The dependence of input threshold energy on dye concentration is examined. The possibility of exciting other dyes to superradiance is discussed.

  13. Pomace waste management scenarios in Québec--impact on greenhouse gas emissions.

    PubMed

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S K; Pelletier, F; Verma, M; Godbout, S; Tyagi, R D

    2011-09-15

    Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, "pomace" contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO(2) eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO(2) eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to consideration of some assumptions in order to calculate GHG emissions. Hence, supplementary experimental studies will be very important to calculate the GHG emissions coefficients during agro-industrial waste management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P. G.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

    2012-07-01

    Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. We analyze strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in strengthening of hydrological cycle in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B, we considered a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than SRES A1B till around 2070. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves larger increase of global precipitation in the last

  15. Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

    2013-07-01

    Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H2) has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuels in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here, we evaluate the impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H2 fuel cell and H2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem). Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H2-based road transportation sector; however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that the adoption of H2 fuel cells would decrease tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%), CO (14%), NOx (16%), soot (17%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12%) in the A1FI scenario, and would decrease those of ozone (5%), CO (4%), NOx (11%), soot (7%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9%) in the B1 scenario

  16. [Cii] emission from L1630 in the Orion B molecular cloud.

    PubMed

    Pabst, C H M; Goicoechea, J R; Teyssier, D; Berné, O; Ochsendorf, B B; Wolfire, M G; Higgins, R D; Riquelme, D; Risacher, C; Pety, J; Le Petit, F; Roueff, E; Bron, E; Tielens, A G G M

    2017-10-01

    L1630 in the Orion B molecular cloud, which includes the iconic Horsehead Nebula, illuminated by the star system σ Ori, is an example of a photodissociation region (PDR). In PDRs, stellar radiation impinges on the surface of dense material, often a molecular cloud, thereby inducing a complex network of chemical reactions and physical processes. Observations toward L1630 allow us to study the interplay between stellar radiation and a molecular cloud under relatively benign conditions, that is, intermediate densities and an intermediate UV radiation field. Contrary to the well-studied Orion Molecular Cloud 1 (OMC1), which hosts much harsher conditions, L1630 has little star formation. Our goal is to relate the [Cii] fine-structure line emission to the physical conditions predominant in L1630 and compare it to studies of OMC1. The [Cii] 158 μ m line emission of L1630 around the Horsehead Nebula, an area of 12' × 17', was observed using the upgraded German Receiver for Astronomy at Terahertz Frequencies (upGREAT) onboard the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). Of the [Cii] emission from the mapped area 95%, 13 L ⊙ , originates from the molecular cloud; the adjacent Hii region contributes only 5%, that is, 1 L ⊙ . From comparison with other data (CO(1-0)-line emission, far-infrared (FIR) continuum studies, emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)), we infer a gas density of the molecular cloud of n H ∼ 3 · 10 3 cm -3 , with surface layers, including the Horsehead Nebula, having a density of up to n H ∼ 4 · 10 4 cm -3 . The temperature of the surface gas is T ∼ 100 K. The average [Cii] cooling efficiency within the molecular cloud is 1.3 · 10 -2 . The fraction of the mass of the molecular cloud within the studied area that is traced by [Cii] is only 8%. Our PDR models are able to reproduce the FIR-[Cii] correlations and also the CO(1-0)-[Cii] correlations. Finally, we compare our results on the heating efficiency of the

  17. [Cii] emission from L1630 in the Orion B molecular cloud

    PubMed Central

    Pabst, C. H. M.; Goicoechea, J. R.; Teyssier, D.; Berné, O.; Ochsendorf, B. B.; Wolfire, M. G.; Higgins, R. D.; Riquelme, D.; Risacher, C.; Pety, J.; Le Petit, F.; Roueff, E.; Bron, E.; Tielens, A. G. G. M.

    2017-01-01

    Context L1630 in the Orion B molecular cloud, which includes the iconic Horsehead Nebula, illuminated by the star system σ Ori, is an example of a photodissociation region (PDR). In PDRs, stellar radiation impinges on the surface of dense material, often a molecular cloud, thereby inducing a complex network of chemical reactions and physical processes. Aims Observations toward L1630 allow us to study the interplay between stellar radiation and a molecular cloud under relatively benign conditions, that is, intermediate densities and an intermediate UV radiation field. Contrary to the well-studied Orion Molecular Cloud 1 (OMC1), which hosts much harsher conditions, L1630 has little star formation. Our goal is to relate the [Cii] fine-structure line emission to the physical conditions predominant in L1630 and compare it to studies of OMC1. Methods The [Cii] 158 μm line emission of L1630 around the Horsehead Nebula, an area of 12′ × 17′, was observed using the upgraded German Receiver for Astronomy at Terahertz Frequencies (upGREAT) onboard the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). Results Of the [Cii] emission from the mapped area 95%, 13 L⊙, originates from the molecular cloud; the adjacent Hii region contributes only 5%, that is, 1 L⊙. From comparison with other data (CO(1-0)-line emission, far-infrared (FIR) continuum studies, emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)), we infer a gas density of the molecular cloud of nH ∼ 3 · 103 cm−3, with surface layers, including the Horsehead Nebula, having a density of up to nH ∼ 4 · 104 cm−3. The temperature of the surface gas is T ∼ 100 K. The average [Cii] cooling efficiency within the molecular cloud is 1.3 · 10−2. The fraction of the mass of the molecular cloud within the studied area that is traced by [Cii] is only 8%. Our PDR models are able to reproduce the FIR-[Cii] correlations and also the CO(1-0)-[Cii] correlations. Finally, we compare our results on the

  18. Negative emissions: Part 1—research landscape and synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minx, Jan C.; Lamb, William F.; Callaghan, Max W.; Fuss, Sabine; Hilaire, Jérôme; Creutzig, Felix; Amann, Thorben; Beringer, Tim; de Oliveira Garcia, Wagner; Hartmann, Jens; Khanna, Tarun; Lenzi, Dominic; Luderer, Gunnar; Nemet, Gregory F.; Rogelj, Joeri; Smith, Pete; Vicente, Jose Luis Vicente; Wilcox, Jennifer; del Mar Zamora Dominguez, Maria

    2018-06-01

    With the Paris Agreement’s ambition of limiting climate change to well below 2 °C, negative emission technologies (NETs) have moved into the limelight of discussions in climate science and policy. Despite several assessments, the current knowledge on NETs is still diffuse and incomplete, but also growing fast. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive body of NETs literature, using scientometric tools and performing an in-depth assessment of the quantitative and qualitative evidence therein. We clarify the role of NETs in climate change mitigation scenarios, their ethical implications, as well as the challenges involved in bringing the various NETs to the market and scaling them up in time. There are six major findings arising from our assessment: first, keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires the large-scale deployment of NETs, but this dependency can still be kept to a minimum for the 2 °C warming limit. Second, accounting for economic and biophysical limits, we identify relevant potentials for all NETs except ocean fertilization. Third, any single NET is unlikely to sustainably achieve the large NETs deployment observed in many 1.5 °C and 2 °C mitigation scenarios. Yet, portfolios of multiple NETs, each deployed at modest scales, could be invaluable for reaching the climate goals. Fourth, a substantial gap exists between the upscaling and rapid diffusion of NETs implied in scenarios and progress in actual innovation and deployment. If NETs are required at the scales currently discussed, the resulting urgency of implementation is currently neither reflected in science nor policy. Fifth, NETs face severe barriers to implementation and are only weakly incentivized so far. Finally, we identify distinct ethical discourses relevant for NETs, but highlight the need to root them firmly in the available evidence in order to render such discussions relevant in practice.

  19. Fourier transform emission spectroscopy of the B 1Π-X 1Sigma + , C 1Sigma + -X 1Sigma + , and G 1Π-X 1Sigma + systems of ScH and ScD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ram, R. S.; Bernath, P. F.

    1996-08-01

    The emission spectra of ScH and ScD have been observed in the 380 nm-2.5 μm spectral region using a Fourier transform spectrometer. The molecules were excited in a scandium hollow cathode lamp operated with neon gas and a trace of hydrogen or deuterium. Three transitions with a common lower state, assigned as the ground X 1Σ+ state, have been observed in the near infrared and visible regions. The ScH bands with 0-0 band origins at 5404, 13 574, and 20 547 cm-1 have been assigned as the B 1Π-X 1Σ+, C 1Σ+-X 1Σ+, and G 1Π-X 1Σ+ transitions, respectively. A rotational analysis of the 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 bands of the B 1Π-X 1Σ+ system, the 0-0 and 1-1 bands of the C 1Σ+-X 1Σ+ system and the 0-0 band of the G 1Π-X 1Σ+ system has been obtained. The principal molecular constants for the X 1Σ+ state of ScH are ΔG(1/2)=1546.9730(14) cm-1, Be=5.425 432(48) cm-1, αe=0.124 802(84) cm-1 and re=1.775 427(8) Å. The corresponding band systems of ScD have also been analyzed. A rotational analysis of the 0-0, 1-1, and 1-0 bands of the B 1Π-X 1Σ+ system, the 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, and 1-2 bands of the C 1Σ+-X 1Σ+ system and the 0-0 band of the G 1Π-X 1Σ+ system has been obtained. The equilibrium molecular constants determined for the ground state of ScD are ωe=1141.2650(31) cm-1, ωexe=12.3799(15) cm-1, Be=2.787 432(41) cm-1, αe=0.045 321(73) cm-1, and re=1.771 219(13) Å. The ScH assignments are supported by recent theoretical predictions made by Anglada et al. [Mol. Phys. 66, 541 (1989)] as well as the experimental results available for ScF and the isovalent YH and LaH molecules. Although some unassigned bands have been attributed to ScH and ScD by previous workers, there have been no previous analyses of ScH or ScD spectra.

  20. Patterns in CH4 and CO2 concentrations across boreal rivers: Major drivers and implications for fluvial greenhouse emissions under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Campeau, Audrey; Del Giorgio, Paul A

    2014-04-01

    It is now widely accepted that boreal rivers and streams are regionally significant sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), yet their role as methane (CH4) emitters, as well as the sensitivity of these greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to climate change, are still largely undefined. In this study, we explore the large-scale patterns of fluvial CO2 and CH4 partial pressure (pCO2 , pCH4) and gas exchange (k) relative to a set of key, climate-sensitive river variables across 46 streams and rivers in two distinct boreal landscapes of Northern Québec. We use the resulting models to determine the direction and magnitude of C-gas emissions from these boreal fluvial networks under scenarios of climate change. River pCO2 and pCH4 were positively correlated, although the latter was two orders of magnitude more variable. We provide evidence that in-stream metabolism strongly influences the dynamics of surface water pCO2 and pCH4 , but whereas pCO2 is not influenced by temperature in the surveyed streams and rivers, pCH4 appears to be strongly temperature-dependent. The major predictors of ambient gas concentrations and exchange were water temperature, velocity, and DOC, and the resulting models indicate that total GHG emissions (C-CO2 equivalent) from the entire network may increase between by 13 to 68% under plausible scenarios of climate change over the next 50 years. These predicted increases in fluvial GHG emissions are mostly driven by a steep increase in the contribution of CH4 (from 36 to over 50% of total CO2 -equivalents). The current role of boreal fluvial networks as major landscape sources of C is thus likely to expand, mainly driven by large increases in fluvial CH4 emissions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Assessment of regional air quality resulting from emission control in the Pearl River Delta region, southern China.

    PubMed

    Wang, N; Lyu, X P; Deng, X J; Guo, H; Deng, T; Li, Y; Yin, C Q; Li, F; Wang, S Q

    2016-12-15

    To evaluate the impact of emission control measures on the air quality in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of South China, statistic data including atmospheric observations, emissions and energy consumptions during 2006-2014 were analyzed, and a Weather Research and Forecasting - Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model was used for various scenario simulations. Although energy consumption doubled from 2004 to 2014 and vehicle number significantly increased from 2006 to 2014, ambient SO 2 , NO 2 and PM 10 were reduced by 66%, 20% and 24%, respectively, mainly due to emissions control efforts. In contrast, O 3 increased by 19%. Model simulations of three emission control scenarios, including a baseline (a case in 2010), a CAP (a case in 2020 assuming control strength followed past control tendency) and a REF (a case in 2020 referring to the strict control measures based on recent policy/plans) were conducted to investigate the variations of air pollutants to the changes in NO x , VOCs and NH 3 emissions. Although the area mean concentrations of NO x , nitrate and PM 2.5 decreased under both NO x CAP (reduced by 1.8%, 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively) and NO x REF (reduced by 7.2%, 1.8% and 0.3%, respectively), a rising of PM 2.5 was found in certain areas as reducing NO x emissions elevated the atmospheric oxidizability. Furthermore, scenarios with NH 3 emission reductions showed that nitrate was sensitive to NH 3 emissions, with decreasing percentages of 0-10.6% and 0-48% under CAP and REF, respectively. Controlling emissions of VOCs reduced PM 2.5 in the southwestern PRD where severe photochemical pollution frequently occurred. It was also found that O 3 formation in PRD was generally VOCs-limited while turned to be NO x -limited in the afternoon (13:00-17:00), suggesting that cutting VOCs emissions would reduce the overall O 3 concentrations while mitigating NO x emissions in the afternoon could reduce the peak O 3 levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B

  2. Integral cross sections for the direct excitation of the A 3 (sigma) u +, B 3 (pi) g, W 3 (delta) u, B' 3 (sigma) u -, a' 1 (sigma) u -, a 1 (pi) g, w 1 (delta) u, and C 3 (pi) u electronic states in

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, P. V.; Malone, C. P.; Kanik, I.

    2005-01-01

    Integral cross sections for electron impact excitation out of the ground state (X 1(sigma)g +) to the A 3(sigma)u +, B 3(pi)g, W 3(delta)u, B' 3(sigma)u -, a' 1(sigma)u -, a 1(pi)g, w 1(delta)u, and states in N2 are reported at incident energies ranging between 10 and 100 eV. These data have been derived by integrating differential cross sections previously reported by this group. New differential cross section measurements for the a 1(pi)g state at 200 eV are also presented to extend the range of the reported integral cross sections for this state, which is responsible for the emissions of the Lyman-Birge-Hopfield band system (a 1(pi)g (rightwards arrow) X 1(sigma)g +). The present results are compared and critically evaluated against existing cross sec In general, the present cross sections are smaller than previous results at low impact energies from threshold through the excitation function peak regions. These lower cross sections have potentially significant implications on our understanding of UV emissions in the atmospheres of Earth and Titan.

  3. Viscosity-active D-π-A chromophores derived from benzo[b]thiophen-3(2H)-one 1,1-dioxide (BTD): Synthesis, photophysical, and NLO properties.

    PubMed

    Bhagwat, Archana A; Mohbiya, Dhanraj R; Avhad, Kiran C; Sekar, Nagaiyan

    2018-10-05

    Donor-π-Acceptor (D-π-A) compounds comprising of benzo[b]thiophen-3(2H)-one 1,1-dioxide (BTD) as acceptor with dibenzofuran, carbazole, triphenylamine, and N-methyl diphenylamine moieties as donors were synthesized for aggregation, viscosity induced emission enhancement and nonlinear optical studies. Compounds 3a-3d exhibited solid state emission. The compounds 3a-3d are viscosity sensitive in a solution of MeOH: PEG-400 and showed 10, 23, 14, and 25 fold viscosity induced enhanced emission. The compounds 3a, 3c, and 3d are aggregation-induced emission enhancement (AIEE) active while 3b quenches the fluorescence on aggregation. The quantum yield of 3a, 3c, and 3d in acetonitrile are 0.041, 0.002 and 0.002 which are enhanced in the aggregate state to 0.31, 0.009, and 0.22 respectively. Solvent-dependent parameters like dipole moment (μ), static polarizability (α), and hyperpolarizability (β and γ) were determined spectroscopically and using Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations. First and second order hyperpolarizability increase as donor strength increases and the trend is found as 3a < 3b < 3c < 3d. Two-photon absorption (2PA) cross sections were calculated by the spectroscopic method, and large 2PA was observed 484.39 GM for compound 3c. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Health risk assessment of PCDD/F emissions from a hazardous and medical waste incinerator in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Karademir, Aykan

    2004-10-01

    A multimedia risk assessment procedure was conducted to determine the fate and transport of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) emissions from the Izmit Hazardous and Medical Waste Incinerator (IZAYDAS) in Turkey and their potential health risks. Congener concentrations in ambient air and their deposition rates were determined by an air dispersion model (ISCST3). Their transfer to some plant groups and animal tissues was predicted by food chain modeling. Exposure scenarios were produced based on three receptor groups (urban, semiurban, and rural) and five subgroups determined according to ages. Daily intakes of PCDD/Fs via exposure pathways were determined based on three different emission scenarios for each group and subgroup. Estimated incremental PCDD/F doses caused by the incinerator emissions in central-tendency scenario were computed as between 2.31 x 10(-6) and 0.008 pg TEQ kg(-1) bodyweight (bw) day(-1) on average for all the receptors other than infants in all the settings, while the range was 3.01 x 10(-5)-0.081 pg TEQ kg(-1) bw day(-1) for infants. Sensitivity analysis showed that the consumption of vegetal products and their locally grown fractions are the most significant parameters in the exposure to PCDD/Fs in the area.

  5. Infrared Emission from Kilonovae: The Case of the Nearby Short Hard Burst GRB 160821B

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Lau, Ryan M.; Korobkin, Oleg

    We present constraints on Ks-band emission from one of the nearest short hard gamma-ray bursts, GRB 160821B, at z = 0.16, at three epochs. We detect a red relativistic afterglow from the jetted emission in the first epoch but do not detect any excess kilonova emission in the second two epochs. We compare upper limits obtained with Keck I/MOSFIRE to multi-dimensional radiative transfer models of kilonovae, that employ composition-dependent nuclear heating and LTE opacities of heavy elements. We discuss eight models that combine toroidal dynamical ejecta and two types of wind and one model with dynamical ejecta only. We alsomore » discuss simple, empirical scaling laws of predicted emission as a function of ejecta mass and ejecta velocity. Our limits for GRB 160821B constrain the ejecta mass to be lower than 0.03 M {sub ⊙} for velocities greater than 0.1 c. At the distance sensitivity range of advanced LIGO, similar ground-based observations would be sufficiently sensitive to the full range of predicted model emission including models with only dynamical ejecta. The color evolution of these models shows that I – K color spans 7–16 mag, which suggests that even relatively shallow infrared searches for kilonovae could be as constraining as optical searches.« less

  6. Infrared Emission from Kilonovae: The Case of the Nearby Short Hard Burst GRB 160821B

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Korobkin, Oleg; Lau, Ryan M.

    In this paper, we present constraints on Ks-band emission from one of the nearest short hard gamma-ray bursts, GRB 160821B, at z = 0.16, at three epochs. We detect a red relativistic afterglow from the jetted emission in the first epoch but do not detect any excess kilonova emission in the second two epochs. We compare upper limits obtained with Keck I/MOSFIRE to multi-dimensional radiative transfer models of kilonovae, that employ composition-dependent nuclear heating and LTE opacities of heavy elements. We discuss eight models that combine toroidal dynamical ejecta and two types of wind and one model with dynamical ejectamore » only. We also discuss simple, empirical scaling laws of predicted emission as a function of ejecta mass and ejecta velocity. Our limits for GRB 160821B constrain the ejecta mass to be lower than 0.03 M ⊙ for velocities greater than 0.1 c. At the distance sensitivity range of advanced LIGO, similar ground-based observations would be sufficiently sensitive to the full range of predicted model emission including models with only dynamical ejecta. Finally, the color evolution of these models shows that I–K color spans 7–16 mag, which suggests that even relatively shallow infrared searches for kilonovae could be as constraining as optical searches.« less

  7. Infrared Emission from Kilonovae: The Case of the Nearby Short Hard Burst GRB 160821B

    DOE PAGES

    Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Korobkin, Oleg; Lau, Ryan M.; ...

    2017-07-12

    In this paper, we present constraints on Ks-band emission from one of the nearest short hard gamma-ray bursts, GRB 160821B, at z = 0.16, at three epochs. We detect a red relativistic afterglow from the jetted emission in the first epoch but do not detect any excess kilonova emission in the second two epochs. We compare upper limits obtained with Keck I/MOSFIRE to multi-dimensional radiative transfer models of kilonovae, that employ composition-dependent nuclear heating and LTE opacities of heavy elements. We discuss eight models that combine toroidal dynamical ejecta and two types of wind and one model with dynamical ejectamore » only. We also discuss simple, empirical scaling laws of predicted emission as a function of ejecta mass and ejecta velocity. Our limits for GRB 160821B constrain the ejecta mass to be lower than 0.03 M ⊙ for velocities greater than 0.1 c. At the distance sensitivity range of advanced LIGO, similar ground-based observations would be sufficiently sensitive to the full range of predicted model emission including models with only dynamical ejecta. Finally, the color evolution of these models shows that I–K color spans 7–16 mag, which suggests that even relatively shallow infrared searches for kilonovae could be as constraining as optical searches.« less

  8. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Two extreme young objects in Barnard 1-b

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hirano, Naomi; Liu, Fang-chun, E-mail: hirano@asiaa.sinica.edu.tw

    2014-07-01

    Two submillimeter/millimeter sources in the Barnard 1b (B1-b) core, B1-bN and B1-bS, have been studied in dust continuum, H{sup 13}CO{sup +} J = 1-0, CO J = 2-1, {sup 13}CO J = 2-1, and C{sup 18}O J = 2-1. The spectral energy distributions of these sources from the mid-IR to 7 mm are characterized by very cold temperatures of T {sub dust} < 20 K and low bolometric luminosities of 0.15-0.31 L {sub ☉}. The internal luminosities of B1-bN and B1-bS are estimated to be <0.01-0.03 L {sub ☉} and ∼0.1-0.2 L {sub ☉}, respectively. Millimeter interferometric observations have shownmore » that these sources have already formed central compact objects of ∼100 AU sizes. Both B1-bN and B1-bS are driving the CO outflows with low characteristic velocities of ∼2-4 km s{sup –1}. The fractional abundance of H{sup 13}CO{sup +} at the positions of B1-bN and B1-bS is lower than the canonical value by a factor of four to eight. This implies that a significant fraction of CO is depleted onto dust grains in the dense gas surrounding these sources. The observed physical and chemical properties suggest that B1-bN and B1-bS are in an earlier evolutionary stage than most of the known class 0 protostars. In particular, the properties of B1-bN agree with those of the first hydrostatic core predicted by the MHD simulations. The CO outflow was also detected in the mid-IR source located at ∼15'' from B1-bS. Since the dust continuum emission was not detected in this source, the circumstellar material surrounding this source is less than 0.01 M {sub ☉}. It is likely that the envelope of this source was dissipated by the outflow from the protostar that is located to the southwest of B1-b.« less

  10. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD-WRF Model.

    PubMed

    Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

    2017-01-01

    The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth's surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD-WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario.

  11. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD–WRF Model

    PubMed Central

    Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

    2017-01-01

    The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth’s surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)–Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD–WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario. PMID:28141866

  12. The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

    2012-08-01

    Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H2) has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuel in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here we evaluate the impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H2 fuel cell and H2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem). Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H2-based road transportation sector, however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that with the adoption of H2 fuel cells decreases tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%), CO (14%), NOx (16%), soot (17%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12%) in the A1FI scenario, and decreases those of ozone (5%), CO (4%), NOx (11%), soot (7%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9 %) in the B1 scenario. The

  13. Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

    PubMed

    Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

    2018-09-01

    To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

    2018-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

  15. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  16. Alternate-Fueled Combustor-Sector Performance: Part A: Combustor Performance Part B: Combustor Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shouse, D. T.; Neuroth, C.; Henricks, R. C.; Lynch, A.; Frayne, C.; Stutrud, J. S.; Corporan, E.; Hankins, T.

    2010-01-01

    Alternate aviation fuels for military or commercial use are required to satisfy MIL-DTL-83133F(2008) or ASTM D 7566 (2010) standards, respectively, and are classified as drop-in fuel replacements. To satisfy legacy issues, blends to 50% alternate fuel with petroleum fuels are certified individually on the basis of feedstock. Adherence to alternate fuels and fuel blends requires smart fueling systems or advanced fuel-flexible systems, including combustors and engines without significant sacrifice in performance or emissions requirements. This paper provides preliminary performance (Part A) and emissions and particulates (Part B) combustor sector data for synthetic-parafinic-kerosene- (SPK-) type fuel and blends with JP-8+100 relative to JP-8+100 as baseline fueling.

  17. An ensemble approach to simulate CO2 emissions from natural fires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents ensemble simulations with the global climate model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). These simulations were forced by historical reconstruction of external forcings for 850-2005 AD and by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios till year 2300. Different ensemble members were constructed by varying the governing parameters of the IAP RAS CM module to simulate natural fires. These members are constrained by the GFED-3.1 observational data set and further subjected to Bayesian averaging. This approach allows to select only changes in fire characteristics which are robust within the constrained ensemble. In our simulations, the present-day (1998-2011 AD) global area burnt due to natural fires is (2.1 ± 0.4) × 106 km2 yr-1 (ensemble means and intra-ensemble standard deviations are presented), and the respective CO2 emissions in the atmosphere are (1.4 ± 0.2) PgC yr-1. The latter value is in agreement with the corresponding observational estimates. Regionally, the model underestimates CO2 emissions in the tropics; in the extra-tropics, it underestimates these emissions in north-east Eurasia and overestimates them in Europe. In the 21st century, the ensemble mean global burnt area is increased by 13% (28%, 36%, 51%) under scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). The corresponding global emissions increase is 14% (29%, 37%, 42%). In the 22nd-23rd centuries, under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 the ensemble mean global burnt area and respective CO2 emissions slightly decrease, both by 5% relative to their values in year 2100. Under other RCP scenarios, these variables continue to increase. Under scenario RCP 8.5 (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5) the ensemble mean burnt area in year 2300 is higher by 83% (44%, 15%) than its value in year 2100, and the ensemble mean CO2 emissions are correspondingly higher by 31% (19%, 9%). All changes of natural fire characteristics in

  18. Impacts of the Minamata Conventionon on Mercury Emissions and Global Deposition from Coal-Fired Power Generation in Asia

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Giang, Amanda; Stokes, Leah C.; Streets, David G.

    We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project similar to 90 and 150 Mg.y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India,more » respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India similar to 2 and 13 mu g.m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg.y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.« less

  19. Impacts of the Minamata convention on mercury emissions and global deposition from coal-fired power generation in Asia.

    PubMed

    Giang, Amanda; Stokes, Leah C; Streets, David G; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Selin, Noelle E

    2015-05-05

    We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 μg·m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg·y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

  20. [Determination of fumonisins B1 and B2 in corn by high performance liquid chromatography with post-column derivatization method].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaoxu; Xiao, Zhiyong; Zhang, Hongyan; Yang, Lili; Ma, Liyan

    2012-08-01

    A high performance liquid chromatography-fluorescence detection with post-column derivatization method was developed to detect fumonisin B1 (FB1) and fumonisin B2 (FB2) in corn. Several factors, such as the pH of derivatization buffer, concentration and flow rate of derivatization reagents, excitation wavelength, emission wavelength, which affected the detection of fumonisins were optimized. The separation was performed on a ZORBAX SB C18 column operated at 40 degrees C with the gradient elution by two mobile phases of 0.1 mol/L sodium dihydrogen phosphate solution (pH 3.3) and methanol at a flow rate of 0.8 mL/min. The derivatization was performed at ambient temperature. The o-phthalaldehyde (OPA) flow rate was 0.4 mL/min. The results showed that the optimum conditions were pH 10.5 of the derivatization reagent, OPA concentration at 2 g/L, and excitation wavelength of 335 nm, emission wavelength of 440 nm. The linear plots of FB1 and FB2 were obtained between 0.2 to 20 mg/L, with the correlation coefficients above 0.999 for both FB1 and FB2. The limits of detection of fumonisins B1 and B2 were 0.02 mg/kg. The mean recoveries at the three spiked levels of 0.1 - 4.0 mg/kg were 82.5% - 89.8%. This method is accurate, simple, rapid and suitable for the determination of fumonisins B1 and B2 in corn.

  1. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  2. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segnalini, M.; Bernabucci, U.; Vitali, A.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N.

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  3. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin.

    PubMed

    Segnalini, M; Bernabucci, U; Vitali, A; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  4. Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cueto, Rafael O. García; Martínez, Adalberto Tejeda; Ostos, Ernesto Jáuregui

    2010-07-01

    The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.

  5. Heat waves and heat days in an arid city in the northwest of México: current trends and in climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Cueto, Rafael O García; Martínez, Adalberto Tejeda; Ostos, Ernesto Jáuregui

    2010-07-01

    The aim of this work is to study heat waves (HWs) in Mexicali, Mexico, because numerous deaths have been reported in this city, caused by heatstroke. This research acquires relevancy because several studies have projected that the health impacts of HWs could increase under various climate change scenarios, especially in countries with low adaptive capacity, as is our case. This paper has three objectives: first, to analyze the observed change in the summer (1 June to 15 September) daily maximum temperature during the period from 1951 to 2006; secondly, to characterize the annual and monthly evolution of frequency, duration and intensity of HWs; and finally, to generate scenarios of heat days (HDs) by means of a statistical downscaling model, in combination with a global climate model (HadCM3), for the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s. The results show summer maximum temperatures featured warming and cooling periods from 1951 until the mid-1980s and, later, a rising tendency, which prevailed until 2006. The duration and intensity of HWs have increased for all summer months, which is an indicator of the severity of the problem; in fact, there are 2.3 times more HWs now than in the decade of the 1970s. The most appropriate distribution for modeling the occurrence of HDs was the Weibull, with the maximum temperature as co-variable. For the 2020 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, HDs under a medium-high emissions scenario (A2) could increase relative to 1961-1990, by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively, whereas under a medium-low emissions scenario (B2), HDs could increase by 2.4, 3.4, and 4.0, for the same projections of time.

  6. On the origin of the system PSR B 1757-24/SNR G 5.4-1.2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gvaramadze, V. V.

    2004-03-01

    A scenario for the origin of the system PSR B 1757-24/supernova remnant (SNR) G 5.4-1.2 is proposed. It is suggested that both objects are the remnants of a supernova (SN) that exploded within a pre-existing bubble blown-up by a runaway massive star (the SN progenitor) during the final (Wolf-Rayet) phase of its evolution. This suggestion implies that (a) the SN blast centre was significantly offset from the geometric centre of the wind-blown bubble (i.e. from the centre of the future SNR), (b) the bubble was surrounded by a massive wind-driven shell, and (c) the SN blast wave was drastically decelerated by the interaction with the shell. Therefore, one can understand how the relatively young and low-velocity pulsar PSR B 1757-24 was able to escape from the associated SNR G 5.4-1.2 and why the inferred vector of pulsar transverse velocity does not point away from the geometric centre of the SNR. A possible origin of the radio source G 5.27-0.9 (located between PSR B 1757-24 and the SNR G 5.4-1.2) is proposed. It is suggested that G 5.27-0.9 is a lobe of a low Mach number (≃1.7) jet of gas outflowing from the interior of G 5.4-1.2 through the hole bored in the SNR's shell by the escaping pulsar. It is also suggested that the non-thermal emission of the comet-shaped pulsar wind nebula originates in the vicinity of the termination shock and in the cylindric region of subsonically moving shocked pulsar wind. The role of magnetized wind-driven shells (swept-up during the Wolf-Rayet phase from the ambient interstellar medium with the regular magnetic field) in formation of elongated axisymmetric SNRs is discussed.

  7. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

  8. FERMI Observations of GRB 090902B: A Distinct Spectral Component in the Prompt and Delayed Emission

    DOE PAGES

    Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; ...

    2009-11-03

    Here, we report on the observation of the bright, long gamma-ray burst (GRB), GRB 090902B, by the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and Large Area Telescope (LAT) instruments on-board the Fermi observatory. This was one of the brightest GRBs to have been observed by the LAT, which detected several hundred photons during the prompt phase. With a redshift of z = 1.822, this burst is among the most luminous detected by Fermi. Time-resolved spectral analysis reveals a significant power-law component in the LAT data that is distinct from the usual Band model emission that is seen in the sub-MeV energy range.more » This power-law component appears to extrapolate from the GeV range to the lowest energies and is more intense than the Band component, both below ~50 keV and above 100 MeV. The Band component undergoes substantial spectral evolution over the entire course of the burst, while the photon index of the power-law component remains constant for most of the prompt phase, then hardens significantly toward the end. After the prompt phase, power-law emission persists in the LAT data as late as 1 ks post-trigger, with its flux declining as t –1.5. The LAT detected a photon with the highest energy so far measured from a GRB, 33.4 +2.7 –3.5 GeV. This event arrived 82 s after the GBM trigger and ~50 s after the prompt phase emission had ended in the GBM band. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these results for models of GRB emission and for constraints on models of the extragalactic background light.« less

  9. Validation of a screening method for the simultaneous identification of fat-soluble and water-soluble vitamins (A, E, B1, B2 and B6) in an aqueous micellar medium of hexadecyltrimethylammonium chloride.

    PubMed

    León-Ruiz, V; Vera, S; San Andrés, M P

    2005-04-01

    Simultaneous determination of the fat-soluble vitamins A and E and the water-soluble vitamins B1, B2 and B6 has been carried using a screening method from fluorescence contour graphs. These graphs show different colour zones in relation to the fluorescence intensity measured for the pair of excitation/emission wavelengths. The identification of the corresponding excitation/emission wavelength zones allows the detection of different vitamins in an aqueous medium regardless of the fat or water solubility of each vitamin, owing to the presence of a surfactant which forms micelles in water at the used concentration (over the critical micelle concentration). The micelles dissolve very water insoluble compounds, such as fat-soluble vitamins, inside the aggregates. This approach avoids the use of organic solvents in determining these vitamins and offers the possibility of analysing fat- and water-soluble vitamins simultaneously. The method has been validated in terms of detection limit, cut-off limit, sensitivity, number of false positives, number of false negatives and uncertainty range. The detection limit is about microg L(-1). The screening method was applied to different samples such as pharmaceuticals, juices and isotonic drinks.

  10. Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Jacob, Daniela

    2013-02-01

    SummaryAn assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security.

  11. A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

  12. Parameters to Maximize 2f2-f1 Distortion Product Otoacoustic Emission Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horn, Jennifer H.; Pratt, Shiela R.; Durrant, John D.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Past research has established parameters for the 2f1-f2 distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) that enhance response levels (e.g., L1 - L2 = 10 dB; f2/f1 = 1.22; L1, L2 = 65, 55 dB SPL). These same parameters do not optimize 2f2-f1 DPOAEs. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate more completely those parameters that…

  13. 40 CFR Table 1 to Subpart Cccc of... - Emission Limitations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Manufacturing of Nutritional Yeast Pt. 63, Subpt... comply with the emission limitations in the following table: For each fed-batch fermenter producing yeast... duration of a batch.b. The emission limitation does not apply during the production of specialty yeast. ...

  14. 40 CFR Table 1 to Subpart Cccc of... - Emission Limitations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Manufacturing of Nutritional Yeast Pt. 63, Subpt... comply with the emission limitations in the following table: For each fed-batch fermenter producing yeast... duration of a batch.b. The emission limitation does not apply during the production of specialty yeast. ...

  15. 40 CFR Table 1 to Subpart Cccc of... - Emission Limitations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Manufacturing of Nutritional Yeast Pt. 63, Subpt... comply with the emission limitations in the following table: For each fed-batch fermenter producing yeast... duration of a batch.b. The emission limitation does not apply during the production of specialty yeast. ...

  16. Expert Elicitations of 2100 Emission of CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Emily; Bosetti, Valentina; Budescu, David; Keller, Klaus; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2017-04-01

    Emission scenarios such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used intensively for climate research (e.g. climate change projections) and policy analysis. While the range of these scenarios provides an indication of uncertainty, these scenarios are typically not associated with probability values. Some studies (e.g. Vuuren et al, 2007; Gillingham et al., 2015) took a different approach associating baseline emission pathways (conditionally) with probability distributions. This paper summarizes three studies where climate change experts were asked to conduct pair-wise comparisons of possible ranges of 2100 greenhouse gas emissions and rate the relative likelihood of the ranges. The elicitation was performed under two sets of assumptions: 1) a situation where no climate policies are introduced beyond the ones already in place (baseline scenario), and 2) a situation in which countries have ratified the voluntary policies in line with the long term target embedded in the 2015 Paris Agreement. These indirect relative judgments were used to construct subjective cumulative distribution functions. We show that by using a ratio scaling method that invokes relative likelihoods of scenarios, a subjective probability distribution can be derived for each expert that expresses their beliefs in the projected greenhouse gas emissions range in 2100. This method is shown to elicit stable estimates that require minimal adjustment and is relatively invariant to the partition of the domain of interest. Experts also rated the method as being easy and intuitive to use. We also report results of a study that allowed participants to choose their own ranges of greenhouse gas emissions to remove potential anchoring bias. We discuss the implications of the use of this method for facilitating comparison and communication of beliefs among diverse users of climate science research.

  17. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

    Treesearch

    Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

    2008-01-01

    We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable...

  19. On black widow evolutionary scenarios for binary neutron stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eichler, David; Levinson, Amir

    1988-01-01

    The scenario whereby the pulsar 1957 + 20 ablates its companion by soft gamma-ray synchrotron emission (Ruderman et al., 1988) is critically examined, with particular regard to how the outflowing material, beginning at photospheric temperatures, is heated through the cooling barrier to coronal temperatures. Assuming the conductivity to be at most the Spitzer value, this consideration is found to constrain the mass flux more than two orders of magnitude more severely than merely considering cooling near the sonic point. This would imply that the ablation scenario fails by a large margin, even if the emission from the pulsar is beamed along the orbital plane.

  20. Photophysical and Photochemical Properties of Some Fluorescent Derivatives of Vitamin B1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marciniak, B.

    1987-05-01

    Absorption and emission spectra, depopulation kinetics of the lowest excited singlet and triplet states and acid-base equilibria of two fluorescent vitamin B, derivatives, the products I and II of the reaction of N-methylated vitamine B, with cytidine and adenosine, respectively, were investigated. Analysis of the lifetime and quantum yield data indicate that at 77 K emissions are the main processes of deactivation of the S1 and T1 states for the free ion and protonated forms. The pKa values indicate a much higher acidity in the excited singlet and triplet states than in the ground state. I and II undergo very slow photochemical reactions in solution in the presence of oxygen (Φ ~ 10-4).

  1. Temperature Dependence of O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0 and 1) Relative Yield in O(1D) + O2 Energy Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostko, O.; Raj, S.; Campbell, K.; Pejakovic, D. A.; Kalogerakis, K.

    2011-12-01

    Energy transfer from excited O(1D) atoms to ground-state O2(X3Σ ^-g) leads to production of O2 in the first two vibrational levels of the O2 (b1Σ ^+g) state: O(1D) + O2 -> O(3P) + O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0, 1). Subsequent radiative decay of O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0, 1) to the ground state results in the Atmospheric Band emission, a prominent feature of the terrestrial airglow. The relative yield for production of O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0 and 1) in the above process, k1/k0, is an important parameter in modeling of the observed Atmospheric Band emission intensities. Recent measurements at room temperature have shown that production of O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 1) dominates that of O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0), with k1/k0 having a value of approximately 3.5 [1]. In the laboratory experiments, the output of a pulsed fluorine laser at 157 nm is used to photodissociate molecular oxygen in an O2/N2 mixture flowing through a heated gas cell. Photodissociation of O2 produces a ground-state O(3P) atom and an excited O(1D) atom. O(1D) rapidly transfers energy to the remaining O2 to produce O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0, 1). The populations of O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0 and 1) are monitored by observing emissions in the O2(b--X) 0--0 and 1--0 bands at 762 and 688 nm, respectively. The value of k1/k0 is extracted from the time-dependent O2(b1Σ ^+g, v = 0 and 1) fluorescence signals using computer simulations. We will present measurements on the temperature dependence of k1/k0 and discuss their atmospheric significance. This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Aeronomy Program under grant AGS-0937317. The fluorine laser was purchased under grant ATM-0216583 from the NSF Major Research Instrumentation Program. S. Raj and K. M. Campbell participated in a Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) site, co-funded by the Division of Physics of the NSF and the Department of Defense in partnership with the NSF REU program under grant PHY-1002892. [1] K. S. Kalogerakis, D. A. Pejaković, R. A. Copeland, T. G

  2. A multiwavelength study of Swift GRB 060111B constraining the origin of its prompt optical emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stratta, G.; Pozanenko, A.; Atteia, J.-L.; Klotz, A.; Basa, S.; Gendre, B.; Verrecchia, F.; Boër, M.; Cutini, S.; Henze, M.; Holland, S.; Ibrahimov, M.; Ienna, F.; Khamitov, I.; Klose, S.; Rumyantsev, V.; Biryukov, V.; Sharapov, D.; Vachier, F.; Arnouts, S.; Perley, D. A.

    2009-09-01

    Context: The detection of bright optical emission measured with good temporal resolution during the prompt phase of GRB 060111Bmakes this GRB a rare event that is especially useful for constraining theories of the prompt emission. Aims: For this reason an extended multi-wavelength campaign was performed to further constrain the physical interpretation of the observations. Methods: In this work, we present the results obtained from our multi-wavelength campaign, as well as from the public Swift/BAT, XRT, and UVOT data. Results: We identified the host galaxy at R˜25 mag from deep R-band exposures taken 5 months after the trigger. Its featureless spectrum and brightness, as well as the non-detection of any associated supernova 16 days after the trigger, enabled us to constrain the distance scale of GRB 060111B11 within 0.4≤ z ≤3 in the most conservative case. The host galaxy spectral continuum is best fit with a redshift of z˜2, and other independent estimates converge to z˜1-2. From the analysis of the early afterglow SED, we find that non-negligible host galaxy dust extinction, in addition to the Galactic one, affects the observed flux in the optical regime. The extinction-corrected optical-to-gamma-ray SED during the prompt emission shows a flux density ratio Fγ/F_opt=10-2-10-4 with spectral index βγ,opt > βγ, strongly suggesting a separate origin of the optical and gamma-ray components. This result is supported by the lack of correlated behavior in the prompt emission light curves observed in the two energy domains. The temporal properties of the prompt optical emission observed during GRB 060111B11 and their similarities to other rapidly-observed events favor interpretation of this optical light as radiation from the reverse shock. Observations are in good agreement with theoretical expectations for a thick shell limit in slow cooling regime. The expected peak flux is consistent with the observed one corrected for the host extinction, likely

  3. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  4. Wildlife Scenario Builder and User's Guide (Version 1.0, Beta Test)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the Wildlife <span class=Scenario Builder User's Manual" vspace = "5" hspace="5" align="right" border="1" /> The Wildlife Scenario Builder (WSB) was developed to improve the quality of wildlif...

  5. Emissions of halocarbons from mobile vehicle air conditioning system in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Yan, H H; Guo, H; Ou, J M

    2014-08-15

    During the implementation of Montreal Protocol, emission inventories of halocarbons in different sectors at regional scale are fundamental to the formulation of relevant management strategy and inspection of the implementation efficiency. This study investigated the emission profile of halocarbons used in the mobile vehicle air conditioning system, the leading sector of refrigeration industry in terms of the refrigerant bank, market and emission, in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, using a bottom-up approach developed by 2006 IPCC Good Practice Guidance. The results showed that emissions of CFC-12 peaked at 53 tons ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) in 1992 and then gradually diminished, whereas HFC-134a presented an increasing emission trend since 1990s and the emissions of HFC-134a reached 65,000 tons CO2-equivelant (CO2-eq) by the end of 2011. Uncertainty analysis revealed relatively high levels of uncertainties for special-purpose vehicles and government vehicles. Moreover, greenhouse gas (GHG) abatements under different scenarios indicated that potential emission reduction of HFC-134a ranged from 4.1 to 8.4 × 10(5)tons CO2-eq. The findings in this study advance our knowledge of halocarbon emissions from mobile vehicle air conditioning system in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Considerations in linking energy scenario modeling and Life Cycle Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has been exploring approaches for estimating U.S. anthropogenic air pollutant emissions through the mid-21st century. As a result, we have developed the Emission Scenario Projection methodology, or ESP. In this document, we pr...

  7. 40 CFR Table 1b to Subpart Ec of... - Emissions Limits for Small, Medium, and Large HMIWI at Affected Facilities as Defined in § 60.50c...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Waste Incinerators for Which Construction is Commenced After June 20, 1996 Pt. 60, Subpt. Ec, Table 1B... Facilities as Defined in § 60.50c(a)(3) and (4) Pollutant Units (7 percent oxygen, dry basis) Emissions... matter Milligrams per dry standard cubic meter (grains per dry standard cubic foot) 66 (0.029) 22 (0.0095...

  8. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

    Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate

  9. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  10. The Structure of Dark Molecular Gas in the Galaxy - I First Results from a GBT Pilot Survey for 18-cm OH emission towards L~105, B~1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Ronald J.; Hogg, David E.; Engelke, Philip D.

    2015-01-01

    We report the first results from a ``blind'' survey for 1665, 1667, and 1720 MHz OH emission over a small region of the Outer Galaxy centered at L = 105.0, B = +1.0. This sparse, high-sensitivity survey (Delta Ta= 3 mK rms in 0.55 km/s channels), was carried out as a pilot project with the Green Bank Telescope (FWHM 7.6') on a 3 X 9 grid at 0.5 deg spacing. The pointings were chosen to correspond with those of the CO(1-0) CfA survey of the Galaxy carried out earlier with substantially the same angular resolution (8.4'). Using 2-hr integrations, 1667 MHz OH emission was detected with the GBT at more than 21 of the 27 survey positions, confirming the ubiquity of molecular gas in the ISM as traced by this spectral line. With very few exceptions the 1665/1667 line ratios are in the LTE ratio of 5:9, and the few exceptions are familiar examples of anomalous OH emission. No OH absorption features are recorded in the area of the present survey, in agreement with the low levels of continuum background emission in this direction. With very few exceptions, peaks in the OH profiles coincide with peaks in the HI spectra (obtained concurrently with the GBT, FWHM 8.9'), although not every HI peak has associated OH emission. At each pointing the OH appears in several components extending over a wide range of radial velocity and coinciding with well-known features of Galactic structure such as the Local Arm and the Perseus Arm. In contrast, little CO emission is seen in the survey area; less than half of the 53 identified OH spectral features show detectable CO counterparts at the CfA sensitivity levels, and these are generally relatively faint. While higher-sensitivity CO data would undoubtedly turn many of the CO upper limits into measurements, such data is not likely to recover the missing CO profile line strengths. The 18-cm main lines of OH therefore appear to be a new tracer for the ``CO-Dark'' molecular gas in the Galactic ISM. Quantitative estimates for this dark molecular

  11. [C II] emission from L1630 in the Orion B molecular cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pabst, C. H. M.; Goicoechea, J. R.; Teyssier, D.; Berné, O.; Ochsendorf, B. B.; Wolfire, M. G.; Higgins, R. D.; Riquelme, D.; Risacher, C.; Pety, J.; Le Petit, F.; Roueff, E.; Bron, E.; Tielens, A. G. G. M.

    2017-10-01

    Context. L1630 in the Orion B molecular cloud, which includes the iconic Horsehead Nebula, illuminated by the star system σ Ori, is an example of a photodissociation region (PDR). In PDRs, stellar radiation impinges on the surface of dense material, often a molecular cloud, thereby inducing a complex network of chemical reactions and physical processes. Aims: Observations toward L1630 allow us to study the interplay between stellar radiation and a molecular cloud under relatively benign conditions, that is, intermediate densities and an intermediate UV radiation field. Contrary to the well-studied Orion Molecular Cloud 1 (OMC1), which hosts much harsher conditions, L1630 has little star formation. Our goal is to relate the [C II] fine-structure line emission to the physical conditions predominant in L1630 and compare it to studies of OMC1. Methods: The [C II] 158 μm line emission of L1630 around the Horsehead Nebula, an area of 12' × 17', was observed using the upgraded German Receiver for Astronomy at Terahertz Frequencies (upGREAT) onboard the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). Results: Of the [C II] emission from the mapped area 95%, 13 L⊙, originates from the molecular cloud; the adjacent H II region contributes only 5%, that is, 1 L⊙. From comparison with other data (CO (1 - 0)-line emission, far-infrared (FIR) continuum studies, emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)), we infer a gas density of the molecular cloud of nH 3 × 103 cm-3, with surface layers, including the Horsehead Nebula, having a density of up to nH 4 × 104 cm-3. The temperature of the surface gas is T 100 K. The average [C II] cooling efficiency within the molecular cloud is 1.3 × 10-2. The fraction of the mass of the molecular cloud within the studied area that is traced by [C II] is only 8%. Our PDR models are able to reproduce the FIR-[C II] correlations and also the CO (1 - 0)-[C II] correlations. Finally, we compare our results on the

  12. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  13. 40 CFR Appendix B to Part 72 - Methodology for Conversion of Emissions Limits

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Methodology for Conversion of Emissions Limits B Appendix B to Part 72 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) PERMITS REGULATION Pt. 72, App. B Appendix B to Part 72—Methodology for...

  14. 40 CFR Appendix B to Part 72 - Methodology for Conversion of Emissions Limits

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Methodology for Conversion of Emissions Limits B Appendix B to Part 72 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) PERMITS REGULATION Pt. 72, App. B Appendix B to Part 72—Methodology for...

  15. Detection of boron nitride radicals by emission spectroscopy in a laser-induced plasma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutouquet, C.; Acquaviva, S.; Hermann, J.

    2001-06-01

    Several vibrational bands of boron nitride radicals have been observed in a plasma produced by pulsed-laser ablation of a boron nitride target in low-pressure nitrogen or argon atmospheres. Using time- and space-resolved emission spectroscopic measurements with a high dynamic range, the most abundant isotopic species B 11N have been detected. The emission bands in the spectral range from 340 to 380 nm belong to the Δυ =-1, 0, +1 sequences of the triplet system (transition A 3Π-X 3Π). For positive identification, the molecular emission bands have been compared with synthetic spectra obtained by computer simulations. Furthermore, B 10N emission bands have been reproduced by computer simulation using molecular constants which have been deduced from the B 11N constants. Nevertheless, the presence of the lower abundant isotopic radical B 10N was not proved due the noise level which masked the low emission intensity of the B 10N band heads.

  16. Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olander, Lydia P.; Gibbs, Holly K.; Steininger, Marc; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Murray, Brian C.

    2008-04-01

    Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data sources

  17. Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy.

    PubMed

    Ono, Kyoko

    2013-11-15

    Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.3 1t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

    2015-01-01

    We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

  19. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  20. Emission Impacts of Electric Vehicles in the US Transportation Sector Following Optimistic Cost and Efficiency Projections.

    PubMed

    Keshavarzmohammadian, Azadeh; Henze, Daven K; Milford, Jana B

    2017-06-20

    This study investigates emission impacts of introducing inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Scenarios are explored using the ANSWER-MARKAL model with a modified version of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) 9-region database. Modified cost and performance projections for LDV technologies are adapted from the National Research Council (2013) optimistic case. Under our optimistic scenario (OPT) we find 15% and 47% adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030 and 2050, respectively. In contrast, gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) remain dominant through 2050 in the EPA reference case (BAU). Compared to BAU, OPT gives 16% and 36% reductions in LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2030 and 2050, respectively, corresponding to 5% and 9% reductions in economy-wide emissions. Total nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and SO 2 emissions are similar in the two scenarios due to intersectoral shifts. Moderate, economy-wide GHG fees have little effect on GHG emissions from the LDV sector but are more effective in the electricity sector. In the OPT scenario, estimated well-to-wheels GHG emissions from full-size BEVs with 100-mile range are 62 gCO 2 -e mi -1 in 2050, while those from full-size ICEVs are 121 gCO 2 -e mi -1 .

  1. The impact of municipal solid waste treatment methods on greenhouse gas emissions in Lahore, Pakistan

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Batool, Syeda Adila; Chuadhry, Muhammad Nawaz

    2009-01-15

    The contribution of existing municipal solid waste management to emission of greenhouse gases and the alternative scenarios to reduce emissions were analyzed for Data Ganj Bukhsh Town (DGBT) in Lahore, Pakistan using the life cycle assessment methodology. DGBT has a population of 1,624,169 people living in 232,024 dwellings. Total waste generated is 500,000 tons per year with an average per capita rate of 0.84 kg per day. Alternative scenarios were developed and evaluated according to the environmental, economic, and social atmosphere of the study area. Solid waste management options considered include the collection and transportation of waste, collection of recyclablesmore » with single and mixed material bank container systems (SMBCS, MMBCS), material recovery facilities (MRF), composting, biogasification and landfilling. A life cycle inventory (LCI) of the six scenarios along with the baseline scenario was completed; this helped to quantify the CO{sub 2} equivalents, emitted and avoided, for energy consumption, production, fuel consumption, and methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions. LCI results showed that the contribution of the baseline scenario to the global warming potential as CO{sub 2} equivalents was a maximum of 838,116 tons. The sixth scenario had a maximum reduction of GHG emissions in terms of CO{sub 2} equivalents of -33,773 tons, but the most workable scenario for the current situation in the study area is scenario 5. It saves 25% in CO{sub 2} equivalents compared to the baseline scenario.« less

  2. A long XMM-Newton campaign on the mode-switching radio pulsar PSR B0943+10

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereghetti, S.

    2017-10-01

    Observations obtained in the last years challenged the widespread notion that rotation-powered neutron stars are steady X-ray emitters. Besides the few pulsars showing "magnetar-like" activity, in at least one remarkable object, PSR B0943+10, significant variations, correlated to radio-mode switching have been discovered. Their study opens a new window to investigate the processes responsible for the pulsar radio and high-energy emission. An XMM-Newton Large Program, with simultaneous radio observations with LOFAR, LWA and Arecibo, allowed us to detect X-ray pulsations also during the fainter state and to better constrain the spectral and variability properties of PSR B0943+10. In both radio states the pulsed emission can be described by a thermal blackbody with temperature of a few 10^6 K and the unpulsed emission by a power-law. We discuss a scenario in which both unpulsed non-thermal emission, likely of magnetospheric origin, and pulsed thermal emission from a small polar cap (˜1500 m^2) with a strong non-dipolar field (˜10^{14} G), are present during both modes and vary in intensity in a correlated way. This is broadly consistent with the predictions of the partially screened gap model and does not necessarily imply global magnetospheric rearrangements to explain the mode switching.

  3. A Categorification of the Crystal Isomorphism B 1,1 B + B(Lambda i) = B(Lambdasigma (i) and a Graphical Calculus for the Shifted Symmetric Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kvinge, Henry

    We prove two results at the intersection of Lie theory and the representation theory of symmetric groups, Hecke algebras, and their generalizations. The first is a categorification of the crystal isomorphism B. (1,1) tensor B1,1B(Lambdai ) ≅ B(Lambdasigma (i)). Here B(Lambdai and B(Lambda sigma(i)) are two affine type highest weight crystals of weight Lambdai and Lambdasigma (i) respectively, sigma is a specific map from the Dynkin indexing set I to itself, and B1,1 is a Kirillov-Reshetikhin crystal. We show that this crystal isomorphism is in fact the shadow of a richer module-theoretic phenomenon in the representation theory of Khovanov-Lauda-Rouquier algebras of classical affine type. Our second result identifies the center EndH'( 1) of Khovanov's Heisenberg category H', as the algebra of shifted symmetric functions Lambda* of Okounkov and Olshanski, i.e. End H'(1) ≅ Lambda*. This isomorphism provides us with a graphical calculus for Lambda*. It also allows us to describe EndH'(1) in terms of the transition and co-transition measure of Kerov and the noncommutative probability spaces of Biane.

  4. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parson, E. A.

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  5. Impacts of population growth, urbanisation and sanitation changes on global human Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water.

    PubMed

    Hofstra, Nynke; Vermeulen, Lucie C

    2016-10-01

    Cryptosporidium is a pathogenic protozoan parasite and is a leading cause of diarrhoea worldwide. The concentration of Cryptosporidium in the surface water is a determinant for probability of exposure and the risk of disease. Surface water concentrations are expected to change with population growth, urbanisation and changes in sanitation. The objective of this paper is to assess the importance of future changes in population, urbanisation and sanitation on global human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface water. The GloWPa-Crypto H1 (the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for Human Cryptosporidium emissions version 1) model is presented and run for 2010 and with scenarios for 2050. The new scenarios are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) developed for the climate community. The scenarios comprise assumptions on sanitation changes in line with the storylines and population and urbanisation changes from the SSPs. In SSP1 population growth is limited, urbanisation large and sanitation and waste water treatment strongly improve. SSP1* is the same as SSP1, but waste water treatment does not improve. SSP3 sees large population growth, moderate urbanisation and sanitation and waste water treatment fractions that are the same as in 2010. Total global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water for 2010 are estimated to be 1.6×10 17 oocysts per year, with hotspots in the most urbanised parts of the world. In 2050 emissions are expected to decrease by 24% or increase by 52% and 70% for SSP1, SSP3 and SSP1* respectively. The emissions increase in all scenarios for countries in the Middle East and Africa (MAF) region, while emissions in large parts in Europe decrease in scenarios SSP1 and SSP3. Improving sanitation by connecting the population to sewers, should be combined with waste water treatment, otherwise (SSP1*) emissions in 2050 are expected to be much larger than in a situation with strong population growth and slow development of safe water and

  6. Scenario-Based Training at the F.B.I.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitcomb, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The 16-week training program offered by the FBI Academy for all new agents is a scenario-based curriculum that includes a range of subjects from the rules of evidence to defensive tactics and provides agents with a clear understanding of how to conduct a full investigation from start to finish. (JOW)

  7. The structure of the distant Kuiper belt in a Nice model scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pike, Rosemary E.; Lawler, Samantha; Brasser, Ramon; Shankman, Cory; Alexandersen, Mike; Kavelaars, J. J.

    2016-10-01

    By utilizing a well-sampled migration model and characterized survey detections, we demonstrate that the Nice-model scenario results in consistent populations of scattering trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and several resonant TNO populations, but fails to reproduce the large population of 5:1 resonators discovered in surveys. We examine in detail the TNO populations implanted by the Nice model simulation from Brasser and Morbidelli (2013, B&M). This analysis focuses on the region from 25-155 AU, probing the classical, scattering, detached, and major resonant populations. Additional integrations were necessary to classify the test particles and determine population sizes and characteristics. The classified simulation objects are compared to the real TNOs from the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS), CFEPS high latitude fields, and the Alexandersen (2016) survey. These surveys all include a detailed characterization of survey depth, pointing, and tracking efficiency, which allows detailed testing of this independently produced model of TNO populations. In the B&M model, the regions of the outer Solar System populated via capture of scattering objects are consistent with survey constraints. The scattering TNOs and most n:1 resonant populations have consistent orbital distributions and population sizes with the real detections, as well as a starting disk mass consistent with expectations. The B&M 5:1 resonators have a consistent orbital distribution with the real detections and previous models. However, the B&M 5:1 Neptune resonance is underpopulated by a factor of ~100 and would require a starting proto-planetesimal disk with a mass of ~100 Earth masses. The large population in the 5:1 Neptune resonance is unexplained by scattering capture in a Nice-model scenario, however this model accurately produces the TNO subpopulations that result from scattering object capture and provides additional insight into sub-population orbital distributions.

  8. Biohydrogen production from microalgal biomass: energy requirement, CO2 emissions and scale-up scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Ana F; Ortigueira, Joana; Alves, Luís; Gouveia, Luísa; Moura, Patrícia; Silva, Carla

    2013-09-01

    This paper presents a life cycle inventory of biohydrogen production by Clostridium butyricum through the fermentation of the whole Scenedesmus obliquus biomass. The main purpose of this work was to determine the energy consumption and CO2 emissions during the production of hydrogen. This was accomplished through the fermentation of the microalgal biomass cultivated in an outdoor raceway pond and the preparation of the inoculum and culture media. The scale-up scenarios are discussed aiming for a potential application to a fuel cell hybrid taxi fleet. The H2 yield obtained was 7.3 g H2/kg of S. obliquus dried biomass. The results show that the production of biohydrogen required 71-100 MJ/MJ(H2) and emitted about 5-6 kg CO2/MJ(H2). Other studies and production technologies were taken into account to discuss an eventual process scale-up. Increased production rates of microalgal biomass and biohydrogen are necessary for bioH2 to become competitive with conventional production pathways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Impact of emission control on regional air quality in the Pearl Delta River region, southern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, N.; Xuejiao, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China has been suffering from air quality issues and the government has implemented a series of strategies in controlling emissions. In an attempt to provide scientific support for improving air quality, the paper investigates the concerning past-to-present air quality data and assesses air quality resulting from emission control. Statistical data revealed that energy consumption doubled from 2004 to 20014 and vehicle usage increased significantly from 2006 to 2014. Due to the effect of control efforts, primary emission of SO2, NOx and PM2.5 decreased resulting in ambient concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10 decreased by 66%, 20% and 24%, respectively. However, O3 increased 19% because of the increase of VOC emission. A chemical transport model, the Community Multi-scale Air Quality, was employed to evaluate the responses of nitrate, ammonium, SOA, PM2.5 and O3 to changes in NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions. Three scenarios, a baseline scenario, a CAP scenario (control strength followed as past tendency), and a REF scenario (strict control referred to latest policy and plans), were conducted to investigate the responses and mechanisms. NOx controlling scenarios showed that NOx, nitrate and PM2.5 reduced by 1.8%, 0.7% and 0.2% under CAP and reduced by 7.2%, 1.8% and 0.3% under REF, respectively. The results indicated that reducing NOx emission caused the increase of atmospheric oxidizability, which might result in a compensation of PM2.5 due to the increase of nitrate or sulfate. NH3 controlling scenarios showed that nitrate was sensitive to NH3 emission in PRD, with nitrate decreased by 0 - 10.6% and 0 - 48% under CAP and REF, respectively. Since controlling NH3 emissions not only reduced ammonium but also significantly reduced nitrate, the implement of NH3 controlling strategy was highly suggested. The VOC scenarios revealed that though SOA was not the major component of PM2.5, controlling VOC emission might take effect in southwestern PRD

  10. Energy balance and emissions associated with biochar sequestration and pyrolysis bioenergy production.

    PubMed

    Gaunt, John L; Lehmann, Johannes

    2008-06-01

    The implications for greenhouse gas emissions of optimizing a slow pyrolysis-based bioenergy system for biochar and energy production rather than solely for energy production were assessed. Scenarios for feedstock production were examined using a life-cycle approach. We considered both purpose grown bioenergy crops (BEC) and the use of crop wastes (CW) as feedstocks. The BEC scenarios involved a change from growing winter wheat to purpose grown miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn as bioenergy crops. The CW scenarios consider both corn stover and winter wheat straw as feedstocks. Our findings show that the avoided emissions are between 2 and 5 times greater when biochar is applied to agricultural land (2--19 Mg CO2 ha(-1) y(-1)) than used solely for fossil energy offsets. 41--64% of these emission reductions are related to the retention of C in biochar, the rest to offsetting fossil fuel use for energy, fertilizer savings, and avoided soil emissions other than CO2. Despite a reduction in energy output of approximately 30% where the slow pyrolysis technology is optimized to produce biochar for land application, the energy produced per unit energy input at 2--7 MJ/MJ is greater than that of comparable technologies such as ethanol from corn. The C emissions per MWh of electricity production range from 91-360 kg CO2 MWh(-1), before accounting for C offset due to the use of biochar are considerably below the lifecycle emissions associated with fossil fuel use for electricity generation (600-900 kg CO2 MWh(-1)). Low-temperature slow pyrolysis offers an energetically efficient strategy for bioenergy production, and the land application of biochar reduces greenhouse emissions to a greater extent than when the biochar is used to offset fossil fuel emissions.

  11. Air quality impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Texas: evaluating three battery charging scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Tammy M.; King, Carey W.; Allen, David T.; Webber, Michael E.

    2011-04-01

    The air quality impacts of replacing approximately 20% of the gasoline-powered light duty vehicle miles traveled (VMT) with electric VMT by the year 2018 were examined for four major cities in Texas: Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) charging was assumed to occur on the electric grid controlled by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and three charging scenarios were examined: nighttime charging, charging to maximize battery life, and charging to maximize driver convenience. A subset of electricity generating units (EGUs) in Texas that were found to contribute the majority of the electricity generation needed to charge PHEVs at the times of day associated with each scenario was modeled using a regional photochemical model (CAMx). The net impacts of the PHEVs on the emissions of precursors to the formation of ozone included an increase in NOx emissions from EGUs during times of day when the vehicle is charging, and a decrease in NOx from mobile emissions. The changes in maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations and average exposure potential at twelve air quality monitors in Texas were predicted on the basis of these changes in NOx emissions. For all scenarios, at all monitors, the impact of changes in vehicular emissions, rather than EGU emissions, dominated the ozone impact. In general, PHEVs lead to an increase in ozone during nighttime hours (due to decreased scavenging from both vehicles and EGU stacks) and a decrease in ozone during daytime hours. A few monitors showed a larger increase in ozone for the convenience charging scenario versus the other two scenarios. Additionally, cumulative ozone exposure results indicate that nighttime charging is most likely to reduce a measure of ozone exposure potential versus the other two scenarios.

  12. C III] Emission in Star-forming Galaxies at z ∼ 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Xinnan; Shapley, Alice E.; Martin, Crystal L.; Coil, Alison L.

    2017-03-01

    The C III]λλ1907, 1909 rest-frame UV emission doublet has recently been detected in galaxies during the epoch of reionization (z > 6), with a high equivalent width (EW; 10 Å, rest frame). Currently, it is possible to obtain much more detailed information for star-forming galaxies at significantly lower redshift. Accordingly, studies of their far-UV spectra are useful for understanding the factors modulating the strength of C III] emission. We present the first statistical sample of C III] emission measurements in star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1. Our sample is drawn from the DEEP2 survey and spans the redshifts 0.64 ≤slant z ≤slant 1.35 (< z> =1.08). We find that the median EW of individual C III] detections in our sample (1.30 Å) is much smaller than the typical value observed thus far at z > 6. Furthermore, out of 184 galaxies with coverage of C III], only 40 have significant detections. Galaxies with individual C III] detections have bluer colors and lower luminosities on average than those without, implying that strong C III] emitters are in general young and low-mass galaxies without significant dust extinction. Using stacked spectra, we further investigate how C III] strength correlates with multiple galaxy properties (M B , U ‑ B, M *, star formation rate, specific star formation rate) and rest-frame near-UV (Fe II* and Mg II) and optical ([O III] and Hβ) emission line strengths. These results provide a detailed picture of the physical environment in star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1, and motivate future observations of strong C III] emitters at similar redshifts.

  13. 40 CFR Table 1a to Subpart Zzzz of... - Emission Limitations for Existing, New, and Reconstructed Spark Ignition, 4SRB Stationary RICE...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... following emission limitation, except during periods of startup . . . During periods of startup you must... the engine's startup time at startup to a period needed for appropriate and safe loading of the engine, not to exceed 30 minutes, after which time the non-startup emission limitations apply.1 b. Limit the...

  14. 40 CFR Table 1a to Subpart Zzzz of... - Emission Limitations for Existing, New, and Reconstructed Spark Ignition, 4SRB Stationary RICE...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... following emission limitation, except during periods of startup . . . During periods of startup you must... the engine's startup time at startup to a period needed for appropriate and safe loading of the engine, not to exceed 30 minutes, after which time the non-startup emission limitations apply.1 b. Limit the...

  15. 40 CFR Table 1a to Subpart Zzzz of... - Emission Limitations for Existing, New, and Reconstructed Spark Ignition, 4SRB Stationary RICE...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... following emission limitation, except during periods of startup . . . During periods of startup you must... the engine's startup time at startup to a period needed for appropriate and safe loading of the engine, not to exceed 30 minutes, after which time the non-startup emission limitations apply.1 b. Limit the...

  16. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

  17. A global wetland methane emissions and uncertainty dataset for atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloom, A. Anthony; Bowman, Kevin W.; Lee, Meemong; Turner, Alexander J.; Schroeder, Ronny; Worden, John R.; Weidner, Richard; McDonald, Kyle C.; Jacob, Daniel J.

    2017-06-01

    Wetland emissions remain one of the principal sources of uncertainty in the global atmospheric methane (CH4) budget, largely due to poorly constrained process controls on CH4 production in waterlogged soils. Process-based estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions and their associated uncertainties can provide crucial prior information for model-based top-down CH4 emission estimates. Here we construct a global wetland CH4 emission model ensemble for use in atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0). Our 0.5° × 0.5° resolution model ensemble is based on satellite-derived surface water extent and precipitation reanalyses, nine heterotrophic respiration simulations (eight carbon cycle models and a data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis) and three temperature dependence parameterizations for the period 2009-2010; an extended ensemble subset based solely on precipitation and the data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis is derived for the period 2001-2015. We incorporate the mean of the full and extended model ensembles into GEOS-Chem and compare the model against surface measurements of atmospheric CH4; the model performance (site-level and zonal mean anomaly residuals) compares favourably against published wetland CH4 emissions scenarios. We find that uncertainties in carbon decomposition rates and the wetland extent together account for more than 80 % of the dominant uncertainty in the timing, magnitude and seasonal variability in wetland CH4 emissions, although uncertainty in the temperature CH4 : C dependence is a significant contributor to seasonal variations in mid-latitude wetland CH4 emissions. The combination of satellite, carbon cycle models and temperature dependence parameterizations provides a physically informed structural a priori uncertainty that is critical for top-down estimates of wetland CH4 fluxes. Specifically, our ensemble can provide enhanced information on the prior CH4 emission uncertainty and the

  18. Future land-use change emissions: CO2, BVOC and wildfire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arneth, A.; Knorr, W.; Hantson, S.; Anthoni, P.; Szogs, S.

    2015-12-01

    Historical land-use (LUC) change is known to have been a large source of CO2 emissions, mostly from deforestation: the equivalent of around 1/3 of today's CO2 in the atmosphere arises from LUC. And LUC will continue into the future, although the expected area change, the type of LUC (deforestation vs. afforestation/reforestation) and regions where the LUC will take place will differ greatly, depending on the future scenario. But LUC is not only of importance for projecting emissions of CO2. It also affects greatly emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon, and from wildfires - all of which are important for the quantification of precursor substances relevant to air quality, and interactions with climate change. We show here that accounting for future socio-economic developments and LUC scenarios has the potential to override climate change and effects of CO2 fertilisation on fire and BVOC emission, regionally and in some cases also globally. Simulation experiments with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS will be performed, covering the 20th and 21st century, and assessing a rage of future population growth, LUC and climate change scenarios. For wildfire emissions, we find that burned area and emissions depend greatly on the type of population growth scenario, and on the distribution of urban vs rural population. BVOC emissions depend greatly on the amount and location of deforestation vs the region and magnitude of forest expansion in response to warming, such as through expansion of vegetation in the northern hemisphere, and via reforestation/afforestation. LUC so far has not been given sufficient attention for simulations of future air quality-climate interactions. In terms of terrestrial precursor emissions of atmospherically reactive substances our simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of including LUC in combination with vegetation that responds dynamically to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 levels.

  19. Collapse scenarios in magnetized star-forming regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juarez, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    -forming regions. During the project we studied the magnetic field from the polarized emission of the dust and also the kinematics of the gas from the molecular line emission of the different tracers of dense gas. From the molecular emission of the gas tracing the envelope of the dense core, we see two different velocity structures separated by 2 km/s and converging towards the potential well in the region. In addition, the magnetic field also presents a bimodal pattern following the distribution of the two velocity structures. Finally, we compared the observational results with 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of star-forming regions dominated by gravity. The last project is the study of a lower-mass star-forming region, L1287. From the data obtained with the SMA, the dust continuum structure shows six main dense cores with masses between 0.4 and 4 solar masses. The dense gas tracer DCN(3- 2) shows two velocity structures separated by 2-3 km/s, converging towards the highest-density region, the young stellar object IRAS 00338+6312, in a similar scenario to the one observed in the higher-mass case of NGC6334V. Finally, the studies of the pre-stellar core FeSt1-457 and the massive region NGC6334V, show how the magnetic field has been overcome by gravity and is not enough to avoid the gravitational collapse. In addition, NGC6334V and the lower- mass region L1287 present very similar scenarios with the material converging from large scales ( 0.1 pc) to the potential wells of both regions at smaller scales ( 0.02 pc) through two dense gas flows separated by 2-3 km/s. In a similar scenario, FeSt1-457 is located just in the region where two dense gas structures separated by 3 km/s appear to converge.

  20. Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.

    2018-04-01

    The Paris Agreement1 commits ratifying parties to pursue efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Carbon budgets2-5 consistent with remaining below 1.5 °C warming, reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)2,6,8, are directly based on Earth system model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)7 responses, which, on average, warm more than observations in response to historical CO2 emissions and other forcings8,9. These models indicate a median remaining budget of 55 PgC (ref. 10, base period: year 1870) left to emit from January 2016, the equivalent to approximately five years of emissions at the 2015 rate11,12. Here we calculate warming and carbon budgets relative to the decade 2006-2015, which eliminates model-observation differences in the climate-carbon response over the historical period9, and increases the median remaining carbon budget to 208 PgC (33-66% range of 130-255 PgC) from January 2016 (with mean warming of 0.89 °C for 2006-2015 relative to 1861-188013-18). There is little sensitivity to the observational data set used to infer warming that has occurred, and no significant dependence on the choice of emissions scenario. Thus, although limiting median projected global warming to below 1.5 °C is undoubtedly challenging19-21, our results indicate it is not impossible, as might be inferred from the IPCC AR5 carbon budgets2,8.

  1. Atmospheric modeling to assess wind dependence in tracer dilution method measurements of landfill methane emissions.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Diane M; Chow, Fotini K; Delkash, Madjid; Imhoff, Paul T

    2018-03-01

    The short-term temporal variability of landfill methane emissions is not well understood due to uncertainty in measurement methods. Significant variability is seen over short-term measurement campaigns with the tracer dilution method (TDM), but this variability may be due in part to measurement error rather than fluctuations in the actual landfill emissions. In this study, landfill methane emissions and TDM-measured emissions are simulated over a real landfill in Delaware, USA using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) for two emissions scenarios. In the steady emissions scenario, a constant landfill emissions rate is prescribed at each model grid point on the surface of the landfill. In the unsteady emissions scenario, emissions are calculated at each time step as a function of the local surface wind speed, resulting in variable emissions over each 1.5-h measurement period. The simulation output is used to assess the standard deviation and percent error of the TDM-measured emissions. Eight measurement periods are simulated over two different days to look at different conditions. Results show that standard deviation of the TDM- measured emissions does not increase significantly from the steady emissions simulations to the unsteady emissions scenarios, indicating that the TDM may have inherent errors in its prediction of emissions fluctuations. Results also show that TDM error does not increase significantly from the steady to the unsteady emissions simulations. This indicates that introducing variability to the landfill emissions does not increase errors in the TDM at this site. Across all simulations, TDM errors range from -15% to 43%, consistent with the range of errors seen in previous TDM studies. Simulations indicate diurnal variations of methane emissions when wind effects are significant, which may be important when developing daily and annual emissions estimates from limited field data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Comparing the greenhouse gas emissions from three alternative waste combustion concepts.

    PubMed

    Vainikka, Pasi; Tsupari, Eemeli; Sipilä, Kai; Hupa, Mikko

    2012-03-01

    Three alternative condensing mode power and combined heat and power (CHP) waste-to-energy concepts were compared in terms of their impacts on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a heat and power generation system. The concepts included (i) grate, (ii) bubbling fluidised bed (BFB) and (iii) circulating fluidised bed (CFB) combustion of waste. The BFB and CFB take advantage of advanced combustion technology which enabled them to reach electric efficiency up to 35% and 41% in condensing mode, respectively, whereas 28% (based on the lower heating value) was applied for the grate fired unit. A simple energy system model was applied in calculating the GHG emissions in different scenarios where coal or natural gas was substituted in power generation and mix of fuel oil and natural gas in heat generation by waste combustion. Landfilling and waste transportation were not considered in the model. GHG emissions were reduced significantly in all of the considered scenarios where the waste combustion concepts substituted coal based power generation. With the exception of condensing mode grate incinerator the different waste combustion scenarios resulted approximately in 1 Mton of fossil CO(2)-eq. emission reduction per 1 Mton of municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerated. When natural gas based power generation was substituted by electricity from the waste combustion significant GHG emission reductions were not achieved. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

  4. Development of Probabilistic Socio-Economic Emissions Scenarios (2012)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The purpose of this analysis is to help overcome these limitations through the development of a publically available library of socio-economic-emissions projections derived from a systematic examination of uncertainty in key underlying model parameters, w

  5. Liquid chromatography/fluorescence method for emamectin B1a and desmethylamino-emamectin B1a residues in lobster tissue.

    PubMed

    Tauber, Ronald; Gillan, Niall; Crouch, Louis; Greenhalgh, Roy

    2006-01-01

    A liquid chromatography (LC)/fluorescence procedure was validated for emamectin (EM B1a) and desmethylamino-emamectin (DMAEM B1a) residues in lobster tissue. They were extracted by shaking and sonicating with 1% ammonium acetate-methanol in the presence of sand. The extract was concentrated, partitioned with ethyl acetate, and cleaned up on a propylsulfonic cation exchange cartridge. The analytes were eluted from the cartridge with 5% ammonium hydroxide-methyl acetate, the eluate was concentrated, and the solvent was changed to dry 20% ethyl acetate-acetonitrile before derivatization with trifluoroacetic anhydride-N-methylimidizole. The products were analyzed by LC-fluorescence, and no interference [>limit of detection (LOD)] was detected in the control samples. Lobster tissues fortified with EM B1a and DMAEM B1a at 0.5, 5, 10, 25, and 50 ng/g gave overall mean recoveries of 96.7 +/- 12.4%, relative standard deviation (RSD) = 12.8% for EM B1 and 83.6 +/- 12.1%, RSD = 14.5% for DMAEM B1a. Regression analysis of the calibration data gave slopes of 0.90 (EM B1a) and 0.71 (DMAEM B1a) with an r2 = 0.99 for both compounds. The calculated LOD and limit of quantification (LOQ) for EM B1a were 1.10 and 3.32 ng/g, respectively, and for DMAEM B1a were 0.762 and 2.31 ng/g, respectively. Residues of EM B1a and DMAEM B1a in fortified lobster tissues stored at -20 degrees C showed that residues were stable for 10-12 months. No loss of EM B1a and DMAEM B1a residues was observed after 3 freeze/thaw cycles of fortified tissue in a 5-day period.

  6. Rosat detections of X-ray emission from young B-type stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Zinnecker, H.; Cruddace, R.; Harnden, F. R., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    We present first results of a series of pointings of the Rosat HRI at visual binaries consisting of a B-star with a later-type companion. The binaries selected for this study are very likely physical pairs. Dating of the B-type stars with respect to the zero-age main sequence, as well as spectroscopic observations of the late-type stars, provides evidence for the extreme youth of these systems with ages typically near or below 10 exp 8 yr. Surprisingly, the late-B component was in many cases detected as an X-ray source, in contrast to previous findings that X-ray emission among late-B field stars is rather uncommon.

  7. Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

    PubMed

    Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

    2018-09-01

    To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. <5 years (immature), 5-20 and >21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and the resulting CO 2 -eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N 2 O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO 2 -eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  9. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-07-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

  10. A Lagrangian Simulation of Subsonic Aircraft Exhaust Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, M. R.; Morris, G. A.

    1999-01-01

    To estimate the effect of subsonic and supersonic aircraft exhaust on the stratospheric concentration of NO(y), we employ a trajectory model initialized with air parcels based on the standard release scenarios. The supersonic exhaust simulations are in good agreement with 2D and 3D model results and show a perturbation of about 1-2 ppbv of NO(y) in the stratosphere. The subsonic simulations show that subsonic emissions are almost entirely trapped below the 380 K potential temperature surface. Our subsonic results contradict results from most other models, which show exhaust products penetrating above 380 K, as summarized. The disagreement can likely be attributed to an excessive vertical diffusion in most models of the strong vertical gradient in NO(y) that forms at the boundary between the emission zone and the stratosphere above 380 K. Our results suggest that previous assessments of the impact of subsonic exhaust emission on the stratospheric region above 380 K should be considered to be an upper bound.

  11. Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    West, Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel

    2013-10-01

    Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions also influences air quality. We simulate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health via two mechanisms: a) reducing co-emitted air pollutants, and b) slowing climate change and its effect on air quality. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG mitigation in the RCP4.5 scenario avoids 0.5±0.2, 1.3±0.6, and 2.2±1.6 million premature deaths in 2030, 2050, and 2100, from changes in fine particulate matter and ozone. Global average marginal co-benefits of avoided mortality are $40-400 (ton CO2)-1, exceeding marginal abatement costs in 2030 and 2050, and within the low range ofmore » costs in 2100. East Asian co-benefits are 10-80 times the marginal cost in 2030. These results indicate that transitioning to a low-carbon future might be justified by air quality and health co-benefits.« less

  12. Bu-2470, a new peptide antibiotic complex. II. Structure determination of Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a and B2b.

    PubMed

    Sugawara, K; Yonemoto, T; Konishi, M; Matsumoto, K; Miyaki, T; Kawaguchi, H

    1983-06-01

    The structures of Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a, and B2b have been determined. Bu-2470 A is a simple octapeptide having no fatty acid moiety, while Bu-2470 B1, B2a and B2b are octapeptides that have been acylated with a beta-hydroxy C11 or C10 fatty acid. The octapeptide structure of Bu-2470 components was found identical with that of octapeptin C1, hence generic names of octapeptin C0, C2, C3 and C4 are proposed for Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a and B2b, respectively.

  13. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  14. Design scenarios for renovation of sports complex: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nižetić, S.

    2018-02-01

    This paper elaborates design scenarios for a sports complex in Croatia from a technical and economic aspect. Different energy options are analysed and two are additionally addressed and discussed as the most viable ones. The possibilities of sports complex renovation are shown by properly choosing the appropriate energy concept and thus reducing the overall cost for produced thermal energy by around 33% and reducing the carbon dioxide emission by a factor of 1.8 in comparison with its present state. Finally, this study presents an example of good practice, where renewable energy solutions can be proposed and where it is possible to cover around 70-80% of overall yearly costs from achieved energy savings for the novel plant that is assumed to be financed through a bank loan.

  15. HST/STIS Transmission Spectral Survey: Probing the Atmospheres of HAT-P-1b and WASP-6b

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolov, N.; Sing, D. K.; Pont, F.; Burrows, A. S.; Fortney, J. J.; Ballester, G. E.; Evans, T. M.; Huitson, C. M.; Wakeford, H. R.; Wilson, P. A.; A. D., S.; Gibson, N. P.; Henry, G. W.; Knutson, H.; Etangs, A. L. d.; Showman, A. P.; Vidal-Madjar, A.; Zahnle, K.

    2014-03-01

    We present optical to near-infrared transmission spectra of HAT-P-1b and WASP-6b, part of a Large HST/STIS hot Jupiter transmission spectral survey (P.I. David Sing). The spectra for each target cover the regimes 2900-5700Å and 5240-10270Å, with resolving power of R = 500. The HAT-P-1b data is coupled with a recent HST/WFC3 transit, spanning the wavelength range 1.087-1.687microns (R=130), acquired in spatial scan mode. The WASP-6b data is complemented with Spritzer/IRAC 3.6 and 4.5 micron transit observations, part of a comparative exoplanetology program (P.I. Jean-Michel Desert). The transmission spectrum of HAT-P-1b shows a strong absorption signature shortward of 5500Å, with a strong blueward slope into the near-UV. We detect atmospheric sodium absorption at a 3.3s significance level, but see no evidence for the potassium feature. The red data implies a marginally flat spectrum with a tentative absorption enhancement at wavelength longer than ~8500Å. The combined STIS and WFC3 optical to NIR spectra differ significantly in absolute radius level (4.3+/-1.6 pressure scale heights), implying strong optical absorption in the atmosphere of HAT-P-1b. The optical to nearinfrared difference cannot be explained by stellar activity, as simultaneous stellar activity monitoring of the G0V HAT-P-1b host star and its identical companion show no significant activity that could explain the result. The red transmission spectrum of WASP-6b is flat with tentative detection of sodium and potassium. We compare both spectra with theoretical atmospheric models, which include haze, sodium and an extra optical absorber in the case of HAT-P-1b. We find that both an optical absorber and a super-solar sodium to water abundance ratio might be a scenario explaining the HAT-P-1b observations.

  16. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T.; Dick Cameron,

    2015-01-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource

  17. A Deep Narrowband Imaging Search for C IV and He II Emission from Lyα Blobs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigoni Battaia, Fabrizio; Yang, Yujin; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Prochaska, J. Xavier; Matsuda, Yuichi; Yamada, Toru; Hayashino, Tomoki

    2015-05-01

    We conduct a deep narrowband imaging survey of 13 Lyα blobs (LABs) located in the SSA22 proto-cluster at z ˜ 3.1 in the C iv and He ii emission lines in an effort to constrain the physical process powering the Lyα emission in LABs. Our observations probe down to unprecedented surface brightness (SB) limits of (2.1-3.4) × 10-18 erg s-1 cm-2 arcsec-2 per 1 arcsec2 aperture (5σ) for the He ii λ1640 and C iv λ1549 lines, respectively. We do not detect extended He ii and C iv emission in any of the LABs, placing strong upper limits on the He ii/Lyα and C iv/Lyα line ratios, of 0.11 and 0.16, for the brightest two LABs in the field. We conduct detailed photoionization modeling of the expected line ratios and find that, although our data constitute the deepest ever observations of these lines, they are still not deep enough to rule out a scenario where the Lyα emission is powered by the ionizing radiation from an obscured active galactic nucleus. Our models can accommodate He ii/Lyα and C iv/Lyα ratios as low as ≃0.05 and ≃0.07, respectively, implying that one needs to reach SB as low as (1-1.5) × 10-18 erg s-1 cm-2 arcsec-2 (at 5σ) in order to rule out a photoionization scenario. These depths will be achievable with the new generation of image-slicing integral field units such as the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) on VLT and the Keck Cosmic Web Imager (KCWI). We also model the expected He ii/Lyα and C iv/Lyα in a different scenario, where Lyα emission is powered by shocks generated in a large-scale superwind, but find that our observational constraints can only be met for shock velocities vs ≳ 250 km s-1, which appear to be in conflict with recent observations of quiescent kinematics in LABs. .

  18. IRTF/SpeX NIR Emission Spectra of WASP-1b

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloemhard, Heather; Creech-Eakman, M.; Deroo, P. D.; Zhao, M.

    2011-05-01

    Of the more than 500 known exoplanets, the detailed chemical composition of only a handful of exoplanet atmospheres is known. We endeavor to remedy this imbalance by using ground-based spectroscopy, which has been demonstrated to reliably reproduce space-based results (Swain et al., Nature 463, 2010) while obtaining new and unexpected information. Our IRTF/SpeX SXD (0.8-2.4 micron cross-dispersed) observations of two secondary eclipses of the exoplanet WASP-1b, obtained September and October 2010, will be used to accomplish two main goals: first, to extend the application of exoplanet ground-based spectroscopy to a wider range of targets than are presently characterized; and second, to probe the temperature structure and begin to characterize the composition of the dayside of the atmosphere. We will show our data reduction steps and initial results based on the reduction method introduced by the Exospec team (Swain et al., Nature 463, 2010) WASP-1b is a 1.44±0.04 RJ, 0.89±0.11 MJ exoplanet in a 2.52 day orbit around its parent star (Cameron et al., MNRAS 375, 2007; Charbonneau et al., ApJ 638, 2007). It has a very low density, which puts it in a group of highly irradiated hot-Jupiters with overly inflated radii known as pM class exoplanets. Theory predicts that we should expect to find a thermal inversion, as well as evidence of H2O and CO (Fortney et al., ApJ, 678, 2008). However, the reason for the inflated radii of these exoplanets is still a matter of great debate (Miller et al., ApJ 702, 2009; Spiegel et al., ApJ 699, 2009; Madhusudhan & Seager, ApJ 725, 2010; Guillot, A&A 520, 2010); determining the structure and composition of the atmospheres of this class of exoplanets may help us sort among competing theories as to the structure and source of the inflated radius.

  19. Aged particles derived from emissions of coal-fired power plants: The TERESA field results

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Choong-Min; Gupta, Tarun; Ruiz, Pablo A.; Wolfson, Jack M.; Ferguson, Stephen T.; Lawrence, Joy E.; Rohr, Annette C.; Godleski, John; Koutrakis, Petros

    2013-01-01

    The Toxicological Evaluation of Realistic Emissions Source Aerosols (TERESA) study was carried out at three US coal-fired power plants to investigate the potential toxicological effects of primary and photochemically aged (secondary) particles using in situ stack emissions. The exposure system designed successfully simulated chemical reactions that power plant emissions undergo in a plume during transport from the stack to receptor areas (e.g., urban areas). Test atmospheres developed for toxicological experiments included scenarios to simulate a sequence of atmospheric reactions that can occur in a plume: (1) primary emissions only; (2) H2SO4 aerosol from oxidation of SO2; (3) H2SO4 aerosol neutralized by gas-phase NH3; (4) neutralized H2SO4 with secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed by the reaction of α-pinene with O3; and (5) three control scenarios excluding primary particles. The aged particle mass concentrations varied significantly from 43.8 to 257.1 μg/m3 with respect to scenario and power plant. The highest was found when oxidized aerosols were neutralized by gas-phase NH3 with added SOA. The mass concentration depended primarily on the ratio of SO2 to NOx (particularly NO) emissions, which was determined mainly by coal composition and emissions controls. Particulate sulfate (H2SO4 + neutralized sulfate) and organic carbon (OC) were major components of the aged particles with added SOA, whereas trace elements were present at very low concentrations. Physical and chemical properties of aged particles appear to be influenced by coal type, emissions controls and the particular atmospheric scenarios employed. PMID:20462390

  20. GPER is involved in the regulation of the estrogen-metabolizing CYP1B1 enzyme in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cirillo, Francesca; Pellegrino, Michele; Malivindi, Rocco; Rago, Vittoria; Avino, Silvia; Muto, Luigina; Dolce, Vincenza; Vivacqua, Adele; Rigiracciolo, Damiano Cosimo; De Marco, Paola; Sebastiani, Anna; Abonante, Sergio; Nakajima, Miki; Lappano, Rosamaria; Maggiolini, Marcello

    2017-01-01

    The cytochrome P450 1B1 (CYP1B1) is a heme-thiolate monooxygenase involved in both estrogen biosynthesis and metabolism. For instance, CYP1B1 catalyzes the hydroxylation of E2 leading to the production of 4-hydroxyestradiol that may act as a potent carcinogenic agent. In addition, CYP1B1 is overexpressed in different tumors including breast cancer. In this scenario, it is worth mentioning that CYP1B1 expression is triggered by estrogens through the estrogen receptor (ER)α in breast cancer cells. In the present study, we evaluated whether the G protein estrogen receptor namely GPER may provide an alternate route toward the expression and function of CYP1B1 in ER-negative breast cancer cells, in main players of the tumor microenvironment as cancer associated fibroblasts (CAFs) that were obtained from breast cancer patients, in CAFs derived from a cutaneous metastasis of an invasive mammary ductal carcinoma and in breast tumor xenografts. Our results show that GPER along with the EGFR/ERK/c-Fos transduction pathway can lead to CYP1B1 regulation through the involvement of a half-ERE sequence located within the CYP1B1 promoter region. As a biological counterpart, we found that both GPER and CYP1B1 mediate growth effects in vitro and in vivo. Altogether, our data suggest that estrogens in ER-negative cell contexts may engage the alternate GPER signaling toward CYP1B1 regulation. Estrogen-CYP1B1 landscape via GPER should be taken into account in setting novel pharmacological approaches targeting breast cancer development. PMID:29290975

  1. GPER is involved in the regulation of the estrogen-metabolizing CYP1B1 enzyme in breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cirillo, Francesca; Pellegrino, Michele; Malivindi, Rocco; Rago, Vittoria; Avino, Silvia; Muto, Luigina; Dolce, Vincenza; Vivacqua, Adele; Rigiracciolo, Damiano Cosimo; De Marco, Paola; Sebastiani, Anna; Abonante, Sergio; Nakajima, Miki; Lappano, Rosamaria; Maggiolini, Marcello

    2017-12-05

    The cytochrome P450 1B1 (CYP1B1) is a heme-thiolate monooxygenase involved in both estrogen biosynthesis and metabolism. For instance, CYP1B1 catalyzes the hydroxylation of E2 leading to the production of 4-hydroxyestradiol that may act as a potent carcinogenic agent. In addition, CYP1B1 is overexpressed in different tumors including breast cancer. In this scenario, it is worth mentioning that CYP1B1 expression is triggered by estrogens through the estrogen receptor (ER)α in breast cancer cells. In the present study, we evaluated whether the G protein estrogen receptor namely GPER may provide an alternate route toward the expression and function of CYP1B1 in ER-negative breast cancer cells, in main players of the tumor microenvironment as cancer associated fibroblasts (CAFs) that were obtained from breast cancer patients, in CAFs derived from a cutaneous metastasis of an invasive mammary ductal carcinoma and in breast tumor xenografts. Our results show that GPER along with the EGFR/ERK/c-Fos transduction pathway can lead to CYP1B1 regulation through the involvement of a half-ERE sequence located within the CYP1B1 promoter region. As a biological counterpart, we found that both GPER and CYP1B1 mediate growth effects in vitro and in vivo . Altogether, our data suggest that estrogens in ER-negative cell contexts may engage the alternate GPER signaling toward CYP1B1 regulation. Estrogen-CYP1B1 landscape via GPER should be taken into account in setting novel pharmacological approaches targeting breast cancer development.

  2. General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

    2008-12-01

    The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

  3. The Effect of Emissions Trading And Carbon Sequestration on The Cost Of CO2 Emissions Mitigation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mahasenan, Natesan; Scott, Michael J.; Smith, Steven J.

    2002-08-05

    The deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CC&S) technologies is greatly affected by the marginal cost of controlling carbon emissions (also the value of carbon, when emissions permits are traded). Emissions limits that are more stringent in the near term imply higher near-term carbon values and therefore encourage the local development and deployment of CC&S technologies. In addition, trade in emissions obligations lowers the cost of meeting any regional or global emissions limit and so affects the rate of penetration of CC&S technologies. We examine the effects of the availability of sequestration opportunities and emissions trading (either within select regionsmore » or globally) on the cost of emissions mitigation and compliance with different emissions reduction targets for the IPCC SRES scenarios. For each base scenario and emissions target, we examine the issues outlined above and present quantitative estimates for the impacts of trade and the availability of sequestration opportunities in meeting emissions limitation obligations.« less

  4. Isoprene emission aids recovery of photosynthetic performance in transgenic Nicotiana tabacum following high intensity acute UV-B exposure.

    PubMed

    Centritto, Mauro; Haworth, Matthew; Marino, Giovanni; Pallozzi, Emanuele; Tsonev, Tsonko; Velikova, Violeta; Nogues, Isabel; Loreto, Francesco

    2014-09-01

    Isoprene emission by terrestrial plants is believed to play a role in mitigating the effects of abiotic stress on photosynthesis. Ultraviolet-B light (UV-B) induces damage to the photosynthetic apparatus of plants, but the role of isoprene in UV-B tolerance is poorly understood. To investigate this putative protective role, we exposed non-emitting (NE) control and transgenic isoprene emitting (IE) Nicotiana tabacum (tobacco) plants to high intensity UV-B exposure. Methanol emissions increased with UV-B intensity, indicating oxidative damage. However, isoprene emission was unaffected during exposure to UV-B radiation, but declined in the 48 h following UV-B treatment at the highest UV-B intensities of 9 and 15 Wm(-2). Photosynthesis and the performance of photosystem II (PSII) declined to similar extents in IE and NE plants following UV-B exposure, suggesting that isoprene emission did not ameliorate the immediate impact of UV-B on photosynthesis. However, after the stress, photosynthesis and PSII recovered in IE plants, which maintained isoprene formation, but not in NE plants. Recovery of IE plants was also associated with elevated antioxidant levels and cycling; suggesting that both isoprene formation and antioxidant systems contributed to reinstating the integrity and functionality of cellular membranes and photosynthesis following exposure to excessive levels of UV-B radiation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Scenarios over the past 3 decades: air quality impact of European legislation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G. G. A.; Guizzardi, D.; Schaaf, E.; Muntean, M.; Dentener, F. J.; Sindelarova, K.; Granier, C.

    2014-12-01

    The impacts of air pollution span from local to global, affecting human health, climate, visibility and ecosystems. Several actions at national, regional and global scale have been adopted to reduce pollutant emission levels. In our work we make use of the EDGAR_ v4.3 emission database to compare today's pollutant levels with ex-post scenarios developed to assess the impact and effectiveness of legislation over the last 3 decades on air quality and climate. Differently from most of literature works addressing future air quality, here we focus on historical global anthropogenic emissions (years 1970-2010) of several gaseous and particulate air pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC) and past emission scenarios to demonstrate the role that policy has played in improving air quality. Three scenarios have been developed and compared to today's situation (year 2010), assuming the lack of abatement measures, the complete stagnation of technology (no reduction measures applied and constant emission factors from 1970), and a constant fuel mixture (with a more prominent role for coal in the 1970s). Special focus is dedicated to the power generation sector, manufacturing industry and road transport activities since these were mostly influenced by official regulations in the EU. Global SO2 emissions from transport dropped down by 8.5 times due to the deployment of low S content fuels; NOx and CO emissions are indeed a function of combustion efficiency and therefore decreased with the introduction of new technologies, while NH3 emitted by road transport increased in Europe by 18% due to the introduction of catalyzers. Finally, particulate matter emissions are mainly abated by the installation of End-of-Pipe measures (e.g. filters) especially in the energy and transport sectors.

  6. TOXICOLOGICAL EVALUATION OF REALISTIC EMISSIONS OF SOURCE AEROSOLS (TERESA): APPLICATION TO POWER PLANT-DERIVED PM2.5

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Annette Rohr

    2005-09-30

    This report documents progress made on the subject project during the period of March 1, 2005 through August 31, 2005. The TERESA Study is designed to investigate the role played by specific emissions sources and components in the induction of adverse health effects by examining the relative toxicity of coal combustion and mobile source (gasoline and/or diesel engine) emissions and their oxidative products. The study involves on-site sampling, dilution, and aging of coal combustion emissions at three coal-fired power plants, as well as mobile source emissions, followed by animal exposures incorporating a number of toxicological endpoints. The DOE-EPRI Cooperative Agreementmore » (henceforth referred to as ''the Agreement'') for which this technical progress report has been prepared covers the performance and analysis of field experiments at the first TERESA plant, located in the Upper Midwest and henceforth referred to as Plant 0, and at two additional coal-fired power plants (Plants 1 and 2) utilizing different coal types and with different plant configurations. During this reporting period, fieldwork was completed at Plant 1, located in the Southeast. Stage I toxicological assessments were carried out in normal Sprague-Dawley rats, and Stage II assessments were carried out in a compromised model (myocardial infarction-MI-model). Normal rats were exposed to the following atmospheric scenarios: (1) primary particles; (2) oxidized emissions; (3) oxidized emissions + secondary organic aerosol (SOA)--this scenario was repeated; and (4) oxidized emissions + ammonia + SOA. Compromised animals were exposed to oxidized emissions + SOA (this scenario was also conducted in replicate). Stage I assessment endpoints included breathing pattern/pulmonary function; in vivo chemiluminescence (an indicator of oxidative stress); blood cytology; bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid analysis; and histopathology. Stage II assessments included continuous ECG monitoring via implanted

  7. Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

    Treesearch

    Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews

    2008-01-01

    We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and...

  8. Air Quality Improvements of Increased Integration of Renewables: Solar Photovoltaics Penetration Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duran, P.; Holloway, T.; Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.; Littlefield, C. M.

    2011-12-01

    Solar photovoltaics (PV) are an attractive technology because they can be locally deployed and tend to yield high production during periods of peak electric demand. These characteristics can reduce the need for conventional large-scale electricity generation, thereby reducing emissions of criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and improving ambient air quality with regard to such pollutants as nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides and fine particulates. Such effects depend on the local climate, time-of-day emissions, available solar resources, the structure of the electric grid, and existing electricity production among other factors. This study examines the air quality impacts of distributed PV across the United States Eastern Interconnection. In order to accurately model the air quality impact of distributed PV in space and time, we used the National Renewable Energy Lab's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to form three unique PV penetration scenarios in which new PV construction is distributed spatially based upon economic drivers and natural solar resources. Those scenarios are 2006 Eastern Interconnection business as usual, 10% PV penetration, and 20% PV penetration. With the GridView (ABB, Inc) dispatch model, we used historical load data from 2006 to model electricity production and distribution for each of the three scenarios. Solar PV electric output was estimated using historical weather data from 2006. To bridge the gap between dispatch and air quality modeling, we will create emission profiles for electricity generating units (EGUs) in the Eastern Interconnection from historical Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) data. Via those emissions profiles, we will create hourly emission data for EGUs in the Eastern Interconnect for each scenario during 2006. Those data will be incorporated in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. Initial results indicate that PV

  9. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment wasmore » ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.« less

  10. Photochemical modeling of emissions trading of highly reactive volatile organic compounds in Houston, Texas. 1. Reactivity based trading and potential for ozone hot spot formation.

    PubMed

    Wang, Linlin; Thompson, Tammy; McDonald-Buller, Elena C; Webb, Alba; Allen, David T

    2007-04-01

    As part of the State Implementation Plan for attaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone, the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality has created a Highly Reactive Volatile Organic Compounds (HRVOC) Emissions Cap and Trade Program for industrial point sources in the Houston/Galveston/Brazoria area. This program has a number of unique features, including its focus on a limited group of ozone precursors and its provisions for trading emissions based on atmospheric reactivity. This series of papers examines the potential air quality impacts of this new emission trading program through photochemical modeling of potential trading scenarios; this first paper in the series describes the air quality modeling methods used to assess potential trades, the potential for localized increases in ozone concentrations (ozone "hot spots") due to HRVOC emission trading, and the use of reactivity scales in the trading. When HRVOC emissions are traded on a mass basis, the simulations indicate that trading of HRVOC allowances between facilities resulted in less than 0.15 ppb (<0.13%) and 0.06 ppb (<0.06%) increases in predicted maximum, area-wide 1-h averaged and 8-h averaged ozone concentrations, respectively. Maximum decreases in ozone concentrations associated with trading, as opposed to across-the-board reductions, were larger than the increases. All of these changes are small compared to the maximum changes in ozone concentrations due to the VOC emissions from these sources (up to 5-10 ppb for 8 h averages; up to 30 ppb for 1-h averages). When emissions of HRVOCs are traded for other, less reactive emissions, on a reactivity weighted basis, air quality simulations indicate that daily maximum ozone concentrations increased by less than 0.3%. Because these relatively small changes (< 1%) are for unlikely trading scenarios designed to produce a maximum change in ozone concentrations (all emissions traded into localized regions), the simulations indicate that the

  11. Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

  12. Aldo-keto Reductase 1B15 (AKR1B15)

    PubMed Central

    Weber, Susanne; Salabei, Joshua K.; Möller, Gabriele; Kremmer, Elisabeth; Bhatnagar, Aruni; Adamski, Jerzy; Barski, Oleg A.

    2015-01-01

    Aldo-keto reductases (AKRs) comprise a superfamily of proteins involved in the reduction and oxidation of biogenic and xenobiotic carbonyls. In humans, at least 15 AKR superfamily members have been identified so far. One of these is a newly identified gene locus, AKR1B15, which clusters on chromosome 7 with the other human AKR1B subfamily members (i.e. AKR1B1 and AKR1B10). We show that alternative splicing of the AKR1B15 gene transcript gives rise to two protein isoforms with different N termini: AKR1B15.1 is a 316-amino acid protein with 91% amino acid identity to AKR1B10; AKR1B15.2 has a prolonged N terminus and consists of 344 amino acid residues. The two gene products differ in their expression level, subcellular localization, and activity. In contrast with other AKR enzymes, which are mostly cytosolic, AKR1B15.1 co-localizes with the mitochondria. Kinetic studies show that AKR1B15.1 is predominantly a reductive enzyme that catalyzes the reduction of androgens and estrogens with high positional selectivity (17β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase activity) as well as 3-keto-acyl-CoA conjugates and exhibits strong cofactor selectivity toward NADP(H). In accordance with its substrate spectrum, the enzyme is expressed at the highest levels in steroid-sensitive tissues, namely placenta, testis, and adipose tissue. Placental and adipose expression could be reproduced in the BeWo and SGBS cell lines, respectively. In contrast, AKR1B15.2 localizes to the cytosol and displays no enzymatic activity with the substrates tested. Collectively, these results demonstrate the existence of a novel catalytically active AKR, which is associated with mitochondria and expressed mainly in steroid-sensitive tissues. PMID:25577493

  13. Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scown, Corinne D.; Nazaroff, William W.; Mishra, Umakant; Strogen, Bret; Lobscheid, Agnes B.; Masanet, Eric; Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad; McKone, Thomas E.

    2012-03-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11-13 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80-90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel.

  14. Scenario Decomposition for 0-1 Stochastic Programs: Improvements and Asynchronous Implementation

    DOE PAGES

    Ryan, Kevin; Rajan, Deepak; Ahmed, Shabbir

    2016-05-01

    We recently proposed scenario decomposition algorithm for stochastic 0-1 programs finds an optimal solution by evaluating and removing individual solutions that are discovered by solving scenario subproblems. In our work, we develop an asynchronous, distributed implementation of the algorithm which has computational advantages over existing synchronous implementations of the algorithm. Improvements to both the synchronous and asynchronous algorithm are proposed. We also test the results on well known stochastic 0-1 programs from the SIPLIB test library and is able to solve one previously unsolved instance from the test set.

  15. The effect of victim information on causality judgments in a rape trial scenario.

    PubMed

    Rempala, Daniel M; Geers, Andrew L

    2009-08-01

    D. M. Rempala and F. B. Bernieri (2005) showed that in a date-rape trial scenario, increasing the amount of neutral, nondiagnostic information (i.e., information unrelated to the case) about the rape victim decreases the percentage of guilt verdicts. The authors attempted to determine the causal mechanism for this phenomenon. Participants read 1 of 4 rape trial scenarios (which differed only in the amount of non diagnostic information about the defendant and victim), then provided a verdict and rated the targets on several dimensions. The authors replicated pattern of guilt verdicts in the Rempala and Bernieri study (p < .05), and a path analysis indicated that increased victim information altered causality judgments, which then affected guilt verdicts.

  16. BP reactivity to public speaking in stage 1 hypertension: influence of different task scenarios.

    PubMed

    Palatini, Paolo; Bratti, Paolo; Palomba, Daniela; Bonso, Elisa; Saladini, Francesca; Benetti, Elisabetta; Casiglia, Edoardo

    2011-10-01

    To investigate the blood pressure (BP) reaction to public speaking performed according to different emotionally distressing scenarios in stage 1 hypertension. METHODS. We assessed 64 hypertensive and 30 normotensive subjects. They performed three speech tasks with neutral, anger and anxiety scenarios. BP was assessed with the Finometer beat-to-beat non-invasive recording system throughout the test procedure. For all types of speech, the systolic BP response was greater in the hypertensive than the normotensive subjects (all p < 0.001). At repeated-measures analysis of covariate (R-M ANCOVA), a significant group-by-time interaction was found for all scenarios (p ≤ 0.001). For the diastolic BP response, the between-group difference was significant for the task with anxiety scenario (p < 0.05). At R-M ANCOVA, a group-by-time interaction of borderline statistical significance was found for the speech with anxiety content (p = 0.053) but not for the speeches with neutral or anger content. Within the hypertensive group, the diastolic BP increments during the speeches with anxiety and anger scenarios were greater than those during the speech with neutral scenario (both p < 0.001). These data indicate that reactivity to public speaking is increased in stage 1 hypertension. A speech with anxiety or anger scenario elicits a greater diastolic BP reaction than tasks with neutral content.

  17. Effect of B20 and Low Aromatic Diesel on Transit Bus NOx Emissions Over Driving Cycles with a Range of Kinetic Intensity

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lammert, M. P.; McCormick, R. L.; Sindler, P.

    2012-10-01

    Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions for transit buses for up to five different fuels and three standard transit duty cycles were compared to establish whether there is a real-world biodiesel NOx increase for transit bus duty cycles and engine calibrations. Six buses representing the majority of the current national transit fleet and including hybrid and selective catalyst reduction systems were tested on a heavy-duty chassis dynamometer with certification diesel, certification B20 blend, low aromatic (California Air Resources Board) diesel, low aromatic B20 blend, and B100 fuels over the Manhattan, Orange County and UDDS test cycles. Engine emissions certification level hadmore » the dominant effect on NOx; kinetic intensity was the secondary driving factor. The biodiesel effect on NOx emissions was not statistically significant for most buses and duty cycles for blends with certification diesel, except for a 2008 model year bus. CARB fuel had many more instances of a statistically significant effect of reducing NOx. SCR systems proved effective at reducing NOx to near the detection limit on all duty cycles and fuels, including B100. While offering a fuel economy benefit, a hybrid system significantly increased NOx emissions over a same year bus with a conventional drivetrain and the same engine.« less

  18. Structure investigation of maltacine B1a, B1b, B2a and B2b: cyclic peptide lactones of the maltacine complex from Bacillus subtilis.

    PubMed

    Hagelin, Gunnar

    2005-04-01

    A new complex of cyclic peptide lactone antibiotics from Bacillus subtilis, which we named maltacines, has recently been described. The structure elucidation of four of them is reported in this paper. The amino acid sequences and structures of the peptides were found by MSn of the ring-opened linear peptides that gave uninterrupted sequences of Bn and Y''n ions. The identities of three unknown residues in the sequences were solved by a combination of derivatization with phenyl isothiocyanate (PITC), high-resolution mass spectrometry and H/D exchange. The nature and position of the cyclic structure were revealed by a chemoselective ring opening with Na18OH and was found to be a lactone formed between a hydroxyl of residue number 4 and the C-terminal amino acid number 12. For verification of the structure of the B2+ ion, peptides with different combinations of P/Q and P/K at the N-terminus were synthesized. The structures of the four peptides were found to be as follows: B1a/B2a, cyclo-4,12(P-Q-Y-HNLeu-A-E-T-Y-Orn-103-Y-I-OH); and B1b/B2b, cyclo-4,12(P-Q-Y-HNLeu-A-E-T-Y-K-103-Y-I-OH). Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. 40 CFR 60.33b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. 60.33b Section 60.33b Protection of Environment..., acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. (a) The emission limits for municipal waste combustor metals... oxygen. (d) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for nitrogen oxides at least as...

  20. 40 CFR 60.33b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. 60.33b Section 60.33b Protection of Environment..., acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. (a) The emission limits for municipal waste combustor metals... oxygen. (d) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for nitrogen oxides at least as...

  1. 40 CFR 60.33b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. 60.33b Section 60.33b Protection of Environment..., acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. (a) The emission limits for municipal waste combustor metals... oxygen. (d) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for nitrogen oxides at least as...

  2. 40 CFR 60.33b - Emission guidelines for municipal waste combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... combustor metals, acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. 60.33b Section 60.33b Protection of Environment..., acid gases, organics, and nitrogen oxides. (a) The emission limits for municipal waste combustor metals... oxygen. (d) For approval, a State plan shall include emission limits for nitrogen oxides at least as...

  3. Prompt Neutrino Emission of Gamma-ray Bursts in the Dissipative Photospheric Scenario Revisited: Possible Contributions from Cocoons

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Xiao, Di; Dai, Zi-Gao; Mészáros, Peter, E-mail: dzg@nju.edu.cn

    2017-07-01

    High-energy neutrinos are expected to originate from different stages in a gamma-ray burst (GRB) event. In this work, we revisit the dissipative photospheric scenario, in which the GRB prompt emission is produced around the photospheric radius. Meanwhile, possible dissipation mechanisms (e.g., internal shocks or magnetic reconnection) could accelerate cosmic-rays (CRs) to ultra-high energies and then produce neutrinos via hadronuclear and photohadronic processes, which are referred to as prompt neutrinos . In this paper, we obtain the prompt neutrino spectrum of a single GRB within a self-consistent analytical framework, in which the jet-cocoon structure and possible collimation effects are included. Wemore » investigate a possible neutrino signal from the cocoon, which has been ignored in the previous studies. We show that if a GRB event happens at a distance of the order of Mpc, there is a great chance to observe the neutrino emission from the cocoon by IceCube, which is even more promising than jet neutrinos, as the opening angle of the cocoon is much larger. We also determine the diffuse neutrino flux of GRB cocoons and find that it could be comparable with that of the jets. Our results are consistent with the latest result reported by the IceCube collaboration that no significant correlation between neutrino events and observed GRBs is seen in the new data.« less

  4. Capital requirements and fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of potential PNGV fuels.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Johnson, L.; Mintz, M.; Singh, M.

    1999-03-11

    Our study reveals that supplying gasoline-equivalent demand for the low-market-share scenario requires a capital investment of less thanmore » $$40 billion for all fuels except H{sub 2}, which will require a total cumulative investment of $$150 billion. By contrast, cumulative capital investments under the high-market-share scenario are $50 billion for LNG, $90 billion for ethanol, $100 billion for methanol, $160 billion for CNG and DME, and $560 billion for H{sub 2}. Although these substantial capital requirements are spread over many years, their magnitude could pose a challenge to the widespread introduction of 3X vehicles. Fossil fuel use by US light-duty vehicles declines significantly with introduction of 3X vehicles because of fuel-efficiency improvements for 3X vehicles and because of fuel substitution (which applies to the nonpetroleum-fueled alternatives). Petroleum use for light-duty vehicles in 2030 is reduced by as much as 45% relative to the reference scenario. GHG emissions follow a similar pattern. Total GHG emissions decline by 25-30% with most of the propulsion system/fuel alternatives. For those using renewable fuels (i.e., ethanol and H{sub 2} from solar energy), GHG emissions drop by 33% (H{sub 2}) and 45% (ethanol). Among urban air pollutants, urban NOX emissions decline slightly for 3X vehicles using CIDI and SIDI engines and drop substantially for fuel-cell vehicles. Urban CO emissions decline for CIDI and FCV alternatives, while VOC emissions drop significantly for all alternatives except RFG-, methanol-, and ethanol-fueled SIDI engines. With the exception of CIDI engines fueled by RFD, FT50, or B20 (which increase urban PM{sub 10} emissions by over 30%), all propulsion system/fuel alternatives reduce urban PM{sub 10} emissions. Reductions are approximately 15-20% for fuel cells and for methanol-, ethanol-, CNG-, or LPG-fueled SIDI engines. Table 3 qualitatively summarizes impacts of the 13 alternatives on capital requirements and on

  5. Global EDGAR v4.1 emissions of air pollutants: analysis of impacts of emissions abatement in industry and road transport on regional and global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Olivier, J. G.; Doering, U. M.; van Aardenne, J.; Monni, S.; Pagliari, V.; Peters, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    The new version v4.1 of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) compiled by JRC and PBL provides independent estimates of the global anthropogenic emissions and emission trends of precursors of tropospheric ozone (CO, NMVOC, NOx) and acidifying substances (NOx, NH3, SO2) for the period 1970-2005. All emissions are detailed at country level consistently using the same technology-based methodology, combining activity data (international statistics) from publicly available sources and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook. By using high resolution global grid maps per source category of area sources and point sources, we also compiled datasets with annual emissions on a 0.1x0.1 degree grid, as input for atmospheric models. We provide full and up-to-date inventories per country, also for developing countries. Moreover, the time series back in time to 1970 provides for the trends in official national inventories a historic perspective. As part of our objective to contribute to more reliable inventories by providing a reference emissions database for emission scenarios, inventory comparisons and for atmospheric modellers, we strive to transparently document all data sources used and assumptions made where data was missing, in particular for assumptions made on the shares of technologies where relevant. Technology mixes per country or region were taken from other data sources (such as the Platts database) or estimated using other sources or countries as proxy. The evolution in the adoption of technologies world-wide over the 35 years covered by EDGAR v4.1 will be illustrated for the power industry and the road transport sectors, in particular for Europe and the US. Similarly the regional and global impacts of implemented control measures and end-of pipe abatements will be illustrated by the examples of - NOx and SO2 end-of pipe abatements being implemented since the late

  6. Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

  7. China action of "Cleanup Plan for Polychlorinated Biphenyls Burial Sites": emissions during excavation and thermal desorption of a capacitor-burial site.

    PubMed

    Yang, Bing; Zhou, Lingli; Xue, Nandong; Li, Fasheng; Wu, Guanglong; Ding, Qiong; Yan, Yunzhong; Liu, Bo

    2013-10-01

    Scarce data are available so far on emissions in a given scenario for excavation and thermal desorption, a common practice, of soils contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). As part of China action of "Cleanup Plan for PCBs Burial Sites", this study roughly estimated PCBs emissions in the scenario for a capacitor-burial site. The concentrations of total PCBs (22 congeners) in soils were in the range of 2.1-16,000μg/g with a mean of 2300μg/g, among the same order of magnitude as the highest values obtained in various PCBs-contaminated sites. Only six congeners belonging to Di-, Tri-, and Tetra-CBs were observed above limits of detection in air samples in the scenario, partially which can be estimated by the USEPA air emission model. Comparing concentrations and composition profiles of PCBs in the soil and air samples further indicated a leaked source of commercial PCBs formulations of trichlorobiphenyl (China PCB no. 1). The measures taken if any to mitigate the volatilization and movement of PCBs and to minimize worker exposure were discussed for improvements of the excavation practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses of a bLS inverse-dispersion technique for measuring gas emissions from livestock operations

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) inverse-dispersion technique has been used to measure fugitive gas emissions from livestock operations. The accuracy of the bLS technique, as indicated by the percentages of gas recovery in various tracer-release experiments, has generally been within ± 10% o...

  9. Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

    2010-05-01

    The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance

  10. A comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants from iron and steel industry in China: Temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics.

    PubMed

    Wang, Kun; Tian, Hezhong; Hua, Shenbing; Zhu, Chuanyong; Gao, Jiajia; Xue, Yifeng; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yong; Zhou, Junrui

    2016-07-15

    China has become the largest producer of iron and steel throughout the world since 1996. However, as an energy-and-pollution intensive manufacturing sector, a detailed comprehensive emission inventory of air pollutants for iron and steel industry of China is still not available. To obtain and better understand the temporal trends and spatial variation characteristics of typical hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emissions from iron and steel production in China, a comprehensive emission inventory of multiple air pollutants, including size segregated particulate matter (TSP/PM10/PM2.5), gaseous pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO), heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni etc.), as well as the more dangerous PCDD/Fs, is established with the unit-based annual activity, specific dynamic emission factors for the historical period of 1978-2011, and the future potential trends till to 2050 are forecasted by using scenario analysis. Our results show that emissions of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter have experienced a gradual increase tendency since 2000, while emissions of priority-controlled heavy metals (Hg, Pb, As, Cd, Cr, and Ni) have exhibited a short-term fluctuation during the period of 1990 to 2005. With regard to the spatial distribution of HAPs emissions in base year 2011, Bohai economic circle is identified as the top emission intensity region where iron and steel smelting plants are densely built; within iron and steel industry, blast furnaces contribute the majority of PM emissions, sinter plants account for most of gaseous pollutants and the majority of PCDD/Fs, whereas steel making processes are responsible for the majority of heavy metal emissions. Moreover, comparisons of future emission trends under three scenarios indicate that advanced technologies and integrated whole process management strategies are in great need to further diminish various hazardous air pollutants from iron and steel industry in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  11. The emission in the region E>0.1MeV during disk and limb faint solar flares

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irene, Arkhangelskaja; Andrew, Arkhangelskiy; Yury, Kotov; Alexandr, Glyanenko; Maria, Kolchina; Alexey, Kirichenko

    2013-06-01

    Hard X-ray and gamma-ray emission in energy band E>50 keV was first observed by AVS-F apparatus onboard CORONAS-F satellite (detector SONG-D) during some solar flares with classes B and C by GOES classification. Such component registered in flares with duration less than 30 min. However γ-emission up to several tens of MeV was observed during some classes B and C events, which temporal profiles were not corresponded to Neupert effect. For example, during class B2.3 limb solar flare January 7, 2005 maximum observed energy was Emax˜36 MeV and during class B4.6 disk solar event January 12, 2005 maximum observed energy was Emax˜7 MeV. Properties of temporal profiles and energy spectra of faint solar flares, during which emission in the energy band of E>0.1 MeV were registered are discussed in the presented work. There is not any strong correlation between presence or absence of hard X-ray and γ-ray emission and the intensity of soft X-ray emission during solar flares. The one of illustration of this fact is the absence of any observed statistically significant count rate exceed above background level during some class M flares in the energy band E>0.1 MeV. The typical example of such flares is event November 8, 2001 (class M4.2, lasts from 14:59 UT up to 16:00 UT, maximum of soft X-ray emission was at 15:35 UT on GOES data).

  12. The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

  13. An outburst scenario for the X-ray spectral variability in 3C 111

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tombesi, F.; Reeves, J. N.; Reynolds, C. S.; García, J.; Lohfink, A.

    2013-09-01

    We present a combined Suzaku and Swift BAT broad-band E = 0.6-200 keV spectral analysis of three 3C 111 observations obtained in 2010. The data are well described with an absorbed power-law continuum and a weak (R ≃ 0.2) cold reflection component from distant material. We constrain the continuum cutoff at EC ≃ 150-200 keV, which is in accordance with X-ray Comptonization corona models and supports claims that the jet emission is only dominant at much higher energies. Fe XXVI Lyα emission and absorption lines are also present in the first and second observations, respectively. The modelling and interpretation of the emission line is complex and we explore three possibilities. If originating from ionized-disc reflection, this should be emitted at rin ≥ 50 rg or, in the lamp-post configuration, the illuminating source should be at a height of h ≥ 30 rg above the black hole. Alternatively, the line could be modelled with a hot collisionally ionized plasma with temperature kT = 22.0^{+6.1}_{-3.2} keV or a photoionized plasma with log ξ = 4.52^{+0.10}_{-0.16} erg s-1 cm and column density NH > 3 × 1023 cm-2. However, the first and second scenarios are less favoured on statistical and physical grounds, respectively. The blueshifted absorption line in the second observation can be modelled as an ultrafast outflow (UFO) with ionization parameter log ξ = 4.47^{+0.76}_{-0.04} erg s-1 cm, column density N_H = (5.3^{+1.8}_{-1.3})× 10^{22} cm-2 and outflow velocity vout = 0.104 ± 0.006c. Interestingly, the parameters of the photoionized emission model remarkably match those of the absorbing UFO, supporting the possibility that the same material could be responsible for both emission and absorption. We suggest an outburst scenario in which an accretion disc wind, initially lying out of the line of sight and observed in emission, then crosses our view to the source and it is observed in absorption as a mildly relativistic UFO.

  14. Aerosol reductions could dominate regional climate responses in low GHG emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S.; Forster, P.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S. M.; Schleussner, C. F.

    2017-12-01

    Limiting global warming to current political goals requires strong, rapid mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline sharply, due to co-emission with greenhouse gases, and future measures to improve air quality. As the net climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained, predicting the impact of strong aerosol emission reductions remains challenging. Here we investigate the isolated and compound climate impacts from removing present day anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and SO2, and moderate, near term GHG dominated global warming, using four coupled climate models. As the dominating effect of aerosol emission reduction is a removal of cooling from sulphur, the resulting climate impacts amplify those of GHG induced warming. BC emissions contribute little to reducing surface warming, but have stronger regional impacts. For the major aerosol emission regions, extreme weather indices are more sensitive to aerosol removal than to GHG increases, per degree of surface warming. East Asia in particular stands out, mainly due to the high present regional aerosol emissions. We show how present climate models indicate that future regional climate change will depend strongly on changes in loading and distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, in addition to surface temperature change.

  15. The Subarcsecond Mid-infrared View of Local Active Galactic Nuclei. III. Polar Dust Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmus, D.; Hönig, S. F.; Gandhi, P.

    2016-05-01

    Recent mid-infrared (MIR) interferometric observations have shown that in a few active galactic nuclei (AGNs) the bulk of the infrared emission originates from the polar region above the putative torus, where only a little dust should be present. Here, we investigate whether such strong polar dust emission is common in AGNs. Out of 149 Seyferts in the MIR atlas of local AGNs, 21 show extended MIR emission on single-dish images. In 18 objects, the extended MIR emission aligns with the position angle (PA) of the system axis, established by [O III], radio, polarization, and maser-based PA measurements. The relative amount of resolved MIR emission is at least 40% and scales with the [O IV] fluxes, implying a strong connection between the extended continuum and [O IV] emitters. These results together with the radio-quiet nature of the Seyferts support the scenario that the bulk of MIR emission is emitted by dust in the polar region and not by the torus, which would demand a new paradigm for the infrared emission structure in AGNs. The current low detection rate of polar dust in the AGNs of the MIR atlas is explained by the lack of sufficient high-quality MIR data and the requirements on the orientation, strength of narrow-line region, and distance of the AGNs. The James Webb Space Telescope will enable much deeper nuclear MIR studies with comparable angular resolution, allowing us to resolve the polar emission and surroundings in most of the nearby AGNs. Based on European Southern Observatory (ESO) observing programmes 60.A-9242, 074.A-9016, 075.B-0182, 075.B-0621, 075.B-0631, 075.B-0727, 075.B-0791, 075.B-0844, 076.B-0194, 076.B-0468, 076.B-0599, 076.B-0621, 076.B-0656, 076.B-0696, 076.B-0743, 077.B-0060, 077.B-0135, 077.B-0137, 077.B-0728, 078.B-0020, 078.B-0173, 078.B-0255, 078.B-0303, 080.B-0240, 080.B-0860, 081.B-0182, 082.B-0299, 083.B-0239, 083.B-0452, 083.B-0536, 083.B-0592, 084.B-0366, 084.B-0606, 084.B-0974, 085.B-0251, 085.B-0639, 086.B-0242, 086.B-0257, 086

  16. [Effects of silicon supply on rice growth and methane emission from paddy soil under elevated UV-B radiation].

    PubMed

    Meng, Yan; Lou, Yun-sheng; Wu, Lei; Cui, He-yang; Wang, Wei-qing

    2015-01-01

    A pot experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of silicon supply on rice growth and methane (CH4) emission in paddy field under elevated UV-B radiation. The experiment was designed with two UV-B radiation levels, i.e. ambient UV-B (ambient, A) and elevated UV-B radiation (elevated by 20%, E) ; with four silicon supply levels, i.e., Si0 (control, without silicon), Si2 (as sodium silicate, 100 kg SiO2 . hm-2), Si2 (as sodium silicate, 200 kg SiO2 hm-2) and Si3 (as slag fertilizer, 200 kg SiO2 . hm-2). The results indicated that, silicon supply obviously alleviated the depressive effect of elevated UV-B radiation on rice growth, and increased the tiller numbers, chlorophyll content, and shoot and root dry masses. Silicon supply promoted rice growth, which increased with the silicon supply level (sodium silicate). Slag fertilizer was better than*sodium silicate in promoting rice growth. CH4 flux and accumulated CH4emission were obviously increased by elevated UV-B radiation, but significantly decreased by silicon application. CH4 emission was reduced with increasing the silicon supply level. Under the same silicon supply level, slag fertilizer was better than sodium silicate in inhibiting CH4 flux and accumulated CH4 emission. This research suggested that fertilizing slag in rice production was helpful not only in utilizing industrial wastes, but also in significantly mitigating CH4 emissions in rice paddy under elevated UV-B radiation.

  17. Detailed investigation of the gamma-ray emission in the vicinity of SNR W28 with Fermi-LAT

    DOE PAGES

    Hanabata, Y.; Katagiri, H.; Hewitt, J. W.; ...

    2014-04-25

    Here, we present a detailed investigation of the γ-ray emission in the vicinity of the supernova remnant (SNR) W28 (G6.4–0.1) observed by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. We detected significant γ-ray emission spatially coincident with TeV sources HESS J1800–240A, B, and C, located outside the radio boundary of the SNR. Their spectra in the 2-100 GeV band are consistent with the extrapolation of the power-law spectra of the TeV sources. We also identified a new source of GeV emission, dubbed Source W, which lies outside the boundary of TeV sources and coincides withmore » radio emission from the western part of W28. All of the GeV γ-ray sources overlap with molecular clouds in the velocity range from 0 to 20 km s –1. Under the assumption that the γ-ray emission toward HESS J1800–240A, B, and C comes from π 0 decay due to the interaction between the molecular clouds and cosmic rays (CRs) escaping from W28, they can be naturally explained by a single model in which the CR diffusion coefficient is smaller than the theoretical expectation in the interstellar space. Furthermore, we constrain the total energy of the CRs escaping from W28 through the same modeling to be larger than ~2 × 10 49 erg. The emission from Source W can also be explained with the same CR escape scenario.« less

  18. Detailed Investigation of the Gamma-Ray Emission in the Vicinity of SNR W28 with FERMI-LAT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanabata, Y.; Katagiri, H.; Hewitt, J. W.; Ballet, J.; Fukazawa, Y.; Fukui, Y.; Hayakawa, T.; Lemoine-Goumard, M.; Pedaletti, G.; Strong, A. W.; Torres, D. F.; Yamazaki, R.

    2014-05-01

    We present a detailed investigation of the γ-ray emission in the vicinity of the supernova remnant (SNR) W28 (G6.4-0.1) observed by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. We detected significant γ-ray emission spatially coincident with TeV sources HESS J1800-240A, B, and C, located outside the radio boundary of the SNR. Their spectra in the 2-100 GeV band are consistent with the extrapolation of the power-law spectra of the TeV sources. We also identified a new source of GeV emission, dubbed Source W, which lies outside the boundary of TeV sources and coincides with radio emission from the western part of W28. All of the GeV γ-ray sources overlap with molecular clouds in the velocity range from 0 to 20 km s-1. Under the assumption that the γ-ray emission toward HESS J1800-240A, B, and C comes from π0 decay due to the interaction between the molecular clouds and cosmic rays (CRs) escaping from W28, they can be naturally explained by a single model in which the CR diffusion coefficient is smaller than the theoretical expectation in the interstellar space. The total energy of the CRs escaping from W28 is constrained through the same modeling to be larger than ~2 × 1049 erg. The emission from Source W can also be explained with the same CR escape scenario.

  19. Detailed Investigation of the Gamma-Ray Emission in the Vicinity of SNR W28 with FERMI-LAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanabata, Y.; Katagiri, H.; Hewitt, John William; Ballet, J.; Fukazawa, Y.; Fukui, Y.; Hayakawa, T.; Lemoine-Goumard, M.; Pedaletti, G.; Strong, A. W.; hide

    2014-01-01

    We present a detailed investigation of the Gamma-ray emission in the vicinity of the supernova remnant (SNR) W28 (G6.4-0.1) observed by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. We detected significant ? -ray emission spatially coincident with TeV sources HESS J1800-240A, B, and C, located outside the radio boundary of the SNR. Their spectra in the 2-100 GeV band are consistent with the extrapolation of the power-law spectra of the TeV sources. We also identified a new source of GeV emission, dubbed Source W, which lies outside the boundary of TeV sources and coincides with radio emission from the western part of W28. All of the GeV Gamma-ray sources overlap with molecular clouds in the velocity range from 0 to 20 km s (exp-1). Under the assumption that the Gamma-ray emission toward HESS J1800-240A, B, and C comes from 3.14(exp0) decay due to the interaction between the molecular clouds and cosmic rays (CRs) escaping from W28, they can be naturally explained by a single model in which the CR diffusion coefficient is smaller than the theoretical expectation in the interstellar space. The total energy of the CRs escaping from W28 is constrained through the same modeling to be larger than is approximately 2 × 10(exp49) erg. The emission from Source W can also be explained with the same CR escape scenario.

  20. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    PubMed

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  1. Agriculture, Land Use, Energy and Carbon Emission Impacts of Global Biofuel Mandates to Mid-Century

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Luckow, Patrick

    2014-02-01

    Three potential future scenarios of expanded global biofuel production are presented here utilizing the GCAM integrated assessment model. These scenarios span a range that encompasses on the low end a continuation of existing biofuel production policies to two scenarios that would require an expansion of current targets as well as an extension of biofuels targets to other regions of the world. Conventional oil use is reduced by 4-8% in the expanded biofuel scenarios, which results in a decrease of in CO2 emissions on the order of 1-2 GtCO2/year by mid-century from the global transportation sector. The regional distribution of cropmore » production is relatively unaffected, but the biofuels targets do result in a marked increase in the production of conventional crops used for energy. Producer prices of sugar and corn reach levels about 12% and 7% above year 2005 levels, while the increased competition for land causes the price of food crops such as wheat, although not used for bioenergy in this study, to increase by 1 to 2%. The amount of land devoted to growing all food crops and dedicated bioenergy crops is increased by about 10% by 2050 in the High biofuel case, with concurrent decreases in other uses of land such as forest and pasture. In both of the expanded biofuels cases studied, there is an increase in net cumulative carbon emissions for the first couple of decades due to these induced land use changes. However, the difference in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels expansion decline by about 2035 as the reductions in energy system emissions exceed further increases in emissions from land use change. Even in the absence of a policy that would limit emissions from land use change, the differences in net cumulative emissions from the biofuels scenarios reach zero by 2050, and are decreasing further over time in both cases.« less

  2. Integrated control of emission reductions, energy-saving, and cost-benefit using a multi-objective optimization technique in the pulp and paper industry.

    PubMed

    Wen, Zongguo; Xu, Chang; Zhang, Xueying

    2015-03-17

    Reduction of water pollutant emissions and energy consumption is regarded as a key environmental objective for the pulp and paper industry. The paper develops a bottom-up model called the Industrial Water Pollutant Control and Technology Policy (IWPCTP) based on an industrial technology simulation system and multiconstraint technological optimization. Five policy scenarios covering the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the structural adjustment (SA) scenario, the cleaner technology promotion (CT) scenario, the end-treatment of pollutants (EOP) scenario, and the coupling measures (CM) scenario have been set to describe future policy measures related to the development of the pulp and paper industry from 2010-2020. The outcome of this study indicates that the energy saving amount under the CT scenario is the largest, while that under the SA scenario is the smallest. Under the CT scenario, savings by 2020 include 70 kt/year of chemical oxygen demand (COD) emission reductions and savings of 7443 kt of standard coal, 539.7 ton/year of ammonia nitrogen (NH4-N) emission reductions, and savings of 7444 kt of standard coal. Taking emission reductions, energy savings, and cost-benefit into consideration, cleaner technologies like highly efficient pulp washing, dry and wet feedstock preparation, and horizontal continuous cooking, medium and high consistency pulping and wood dry feedstock preparation are recommended.

  3. The phase-in and phase-out of European emissions of HCFC-141b and HCFC-142b under the Montreal Protocol: Evidence from observations at Mace Head, Ireland and Jungfraujoch, Switzerland from 1994 to 2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derwent, R. G.; Simmonds, P. G.; Greally, B. R.; O'doherty, S.; McCulloch, A.; Manning, A.; Reimann, S.; Folini, D.; Vollmer, M. K.

    The mixing ratios of HCFC-141b (1,1-dichlorofluoroethane) and HCFC-142b (1-chloro-1,1-difluoroethane) have been rising steadily in baseline air at Mace Head, Ireland over the 10-year period from 1994 to 2004. These HCFCs are widely used replacements for the chlorofluorocarbons phased out under the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments. Analysis of the HCFC content of regionally-polluted air arriving at Mace Head from the European continent shows that European emissions reached a peak during 2000-2001 and have declined subsequently, following the phase-out in their usage. European emissions of HCFC-141b have been further constrained by observations at the High-Alpine Jungfraujoch site. The reductions are consistent with the phase-out of HCFC production and use from the year 2001 onwards mandated by European regulations designed to exceed the requirements of the Montreal Protocol.

  4. Effects of engine emissions from high-speed civil transport aircraft: A two-dimensional modeling study, part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Sze, Nein Dak; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Heisey, Curtis

    1991-01-01

    The AER two-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to study the effect on stratospheric ozone (O3) from operations of supersonic and subsonic aircraft. The study is based on six emission scenarios provided to AER. The study showed that: (1) the O3 response is dominated by the portion of the emitted nitrogen compounds that is entrained in the stratosphere; (2) the entrainment is a sensitive function of the altitude at which the material is injected; (3) the O3 removal efficiency of the emitted material depends on the concentrations of trace gases in the background atmosphere; and (4) evaluation of the impact of fleet operations in the future atmosphere must take into account the expected changes in trace gas concentrations from other activities. Areas for model improvements in future studies are also discussed.

  5. MISR Level 1A CCD, 1B1, 1B2, and Browse Products

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-01

    ... ESDT Product File Name Prefix Current Quality Designations MI1B2E MISR_AM1_GRP_ELLIPSOID_GM, ... should be used. All calibration files for the life of the mission have been reprocessed using the best available calibration. ...

  6. Health risk impacts analysis of fugitive aromatic compounds emissions from the working face of a municipal solid waste landfill in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yanjun; Liu, Yanting; Li, Hao; Fu, Xindi; Guo, Hanwen; Meng, Ruihong; Lu, Wenjing; Zhao, Ming; Wang, Hongtao

    2016-12-01

    Aromatic compounds (ACs) emitted from landfills have attracted a lot of attention of the public due to their adverse impacts on the environment and human health. This study assessed the health risk impacts of the fugitive ACs emitted from the working face of a municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill in China. The emission data was acquired by long-term in-situ samplings using a modified wind tunnel system. The uncertainty of aromatic emissions is determined by means of statistics and the emission factors were thus developed. Two scenarios, i.e. 'normal-case' and 'worst-case', were presented to evaluate the potential health risk in different weather conditions. For this typical large anaerobic landfill, toluene was the dominant species owing to its highest releasing rate (3.40±3.79g·m -2 ·d -1 ). Despite being of negligible non-carcinogenic risk, the ACs might bring carcinogenic risks to human in the nearby area. Ethylbenzene was the major health threat substance. The cumulative carcinogenic risk impact area is as far as ~1.5km at downwind direction for the normal-case scenario, and even nearly 4km for the worst-case scenario. Health risks of fugitive ACs emissions from active landfills should be concerned, especially for landfills which still receiving mixed MSW. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Mitigating the environmental impacts of milk production via anaerobic digestion of manure: case study of a dairy farm in the Po Valley.

    PubMed

    Battini, F; Agostini, A; Boulamanti, A K; Giuntoli, J; Amaducci, S

    2014-05-15

    This work analyzes the environmental impacts of milk production in an intensive dairy farm situated in the Northern Italy region of the Po Valley. Three manure management scenarios are compared: in Scenario 1 the animal slurry is stored in an open tank and then used as fertilizer. In scenario 2 the manure is processed in an anaerobic digestion plant and the biogas produced is combusted in an internal combustion engine to produce heat (required by the digester) and electricity (exported). Scenario 3 is similar to scenario 2 but the digestate is stored in a gas-tight tank. In scenario 1 the GHG emissions are estimated to be equal to 1.21 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) Fat and Protein Corrected Milk (FPCM) without allocation of the environmental burden to the by-product meat. With mass allocation, the GHG emissions associated to the milk are reduced to 1.18 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. Using an economic allocation approach the GHG emissions allocated to the milk are 1.13 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. In scenarios 2 and 3, without allocation, the GHG emissions are reduced respectively to 0.92 (-23.7%) and 0.77 (-36.5%) kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. If land use change due to soybean production is accounted for, an additional emission of 0.53 kg CO2 eq. should be added, raising the GHG emissions to 1.74, 1.45 and 1.30 kg CO2 eq kg(-1) FPCM in scenarios 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Primary energy from non-renewable resources decreases by 36.2% and 40.6% in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, with the valorization of the manure in the biogas plant. The other environmental impact mitigated is marine eutrophication that decreases by 8.1% in both scenarios 2 and 3, mostly because of the lower field emissions. There is, however, a trade-off between non-renewable energy and GHG savings and other environmental impacts: acidification (+6.1% and +5.5% in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively), particulate matter emissions (+1.4% and +0.7%) and photochemical ozone formation potential (+41.6% and +42.3%) increase with the

  8. Building the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) Smoke Emissions Inventory Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellison, Luke; Ichoku, Charles; Zhang, Feng; Wang, Jun

    2014-01-01

    The Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) group's new coefficient of emission global gridded product at 1x1 resolution that directly relates fire readiative energy (FRE) to smoke aerosol release, FEERv1.0 Ce, made its public debut in August 2013. Since then, steps have been taken to generate corresponding maps and totals of total particulate matter (PM) emissions using different sources of FRE, and subsequently to simulate the resulting PM(sub 2.5) in the WRF-Chem 3.5 model using emission rates from FEERv1.0 as well as other standard biomass burning emission inventories. An flowchart of the FEER algorithm to calculate Ce is outlined here along with a display of the resulting emissions of total PM globally and also regionally. The modeling results from the WRF-Chem3.5 simulations are also shown.

  9. Impact of maximum levels in European legislation on exposure of mycotoxins in dried products: case of aflatoxin B1 and ochratoxin A in nuts and dried fruits.

    PubMed

    Van de Perre, Evelien; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Lachat, Carl; El Tahan, Fouad; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    In this study the impact of setting European criteria on exposure to aflatoxin B1 via nuts and figs and ochratoxin A via dried fruits is evaluated for the Belgian population, as an example of the European population. Two different scenarios were evaluated. In scenario 1 all collected literature data are considered, assuming that there is no border control nor legal limits in Europe. In the second scenario, contamination levels above the maximum limits are excluded. The results from scenario 1 demonstrated that if no regulation is in place, AFB1 and OTA concentrations reported in the analysed food can have potential health risk to the population. The estimated exposure of OTA for scenario 2 is below the TDI of 5 ng/kg BW⋅day, indicating that OTA concentrations accepted by EU legislation pose a low risk to the Belgian population. For AFB1, the MOE values of scenario 2 are above 10,000 and can be considered to be of low health concern, based on BDML10 for humans, except for figs (MOE = 5782). This means that for all matrices, with exception of figs, the maximum values of AFB1 in the European legislation are sufficient to be of a low health concern for consumers. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Emissions from prescribed fire in temperate forest in south-east Australia: implications for carbon accounting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Possell, M.; Jenkins, M.; Bell, T. L.; Adams, M. A.

    2014-09-01

    We estimated of emissions of carbon, as CO2-equivalents, from planned fire in four sites in a south-eastern Australian forest. Emission estimates were calculated using measurements of fuel load and carbon content of different fuel types, before and after burning, and determination of fuel-specific emission factors. Median estimates of emissions for the four sites ranged from 20 to 139 T CO2-e ha-1. Variability in estimates was a consequence of different burning efficiencies of each fuel type from the four sites. Higher emissions resulted from more fine fuel (twigs, decomposing matter, near-surface live and leaf litter) or coarse woody debris (CWD; > 25 mm diameter) being consumed. In order to assess the effect of estimating emissions when only a few fuel variables are known, Monte-Carlo simulations were used to create seven scenarios where input parameters values were replaced by probability density functions. Calculation methods were: (1) all measured data were constrained between measured maximum and minimum values for each variable, (2) as for (1) except the proportion of carbon within a fuel type was constrained between 0 and 1, (3) as for (2) but losses of mass caused by fire were replaced with burning efficiency factors constrained between 0 and 1; and (4) emissions were calculated using default values in the Australian National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA), National Inventory Report 2011, as appropriate for our sites. Effects of including CWD in calculations were assessed for calculation Method 1, 2 and 3 but not for Method 4 as the NGA does not consider this fuel type. Simulations demonstrate that the probability of estimating true median emissions declines strongly as the amount of information available declines. Including CWD in scenarios increased uncertainty in calculations because CWD is the most variable contributor to fuel load. Inclusion of CWD in scenarios generally increased the amount of carbon lost. We discuss implications of these simulations and

  11. Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oikonomakis, Emmanouil; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry

    2018-02-01

    High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone-temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10-20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (< 40 ppb) by 5-15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone-temperature regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations. To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested: (i) increased volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii) increased nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by a factor of 2, (iii) a combination of the first two scenarios and (iv) increased traffic-only NOx emissions by a factor of 4. For southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area) Europe, doubling NOx emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone-temperature correlation is also better when NOx emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario (where both NOx and VOC emissions are

  12. Ammonia emissions in Europe, part II: How ammonia emission abatement strategies affect secondary aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Backes, Anna M.; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus

    2016-02-01

    In central Europe, ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate make up a large fraction of fine particles which pose a threat to human health. Most studies on air pollution through particulate matter investigate the influence of emission reductions of sulphur- and nitrogen oxides on aerosol concentration. Here, we focus on the influence of ammonia (NH3) emissions. Emission scenarios have been created on the basis of the improved ammonia emission parameterization implemented in the SMOKE for Europe and CMAQ model systems described in part I of this study. This includes emissions based on future European legislation (the National Emission Ceilings) as well as a dynamic evaluation of the influence of different agricultural sectors (e.g. animal husbandry) on particle formation. The study compares the concentrations of NH3, NH4+, NO3 -, sulphur compounds and the total concentration of particles in winter and summer for a political-, technical- and behavioural scenario. It was found that a reduction of ammonia emissions by 50% lead to a 24% reduction of the total PM2.5 concentrations in northwest Europe. The observed reduction was mainly driven by reduced formation of ammonium nitrate. Moreover, emission reductions during winter had a larger impact than during the rest of the year. This leads to the conclusion that a reduction of the ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector related to animal husbandry could be more efficient than the reduction from other sectors due to its larger share in winter ammonia emissions.

  13. Radio emission from embryonic superluminous supernova remnants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omand, Conor M. B.; Kashiyama, Kazumi; Murase, Kohta

    2018-02-01

    It has been widely argued that Type-I superluminous supernovae (SLSNe-I) are driven by powerful central engines with a long-lasting energy injection after the core-collapse of massive progenitors. One of the popular hypotheses is that the hidden engines are fast-rotating pulsars with a magnetic field of B ˜ 1013-1015 G. Murase, Kashiyama & Mészáros proposed that quasi-steady radio/submm emission from non-thermal electron-positron pairs in nascent pulsar wind nebulae can be used as a relevant counterpart of such pulsar-driven supernovae (SNe). In this work, focusing on the nascent SLSN-I remnants, we examine constraints that can be placed by radio emission. We show that the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimetre Array can detect the radio nebula from SNe at DL ˜ 1 Gpc in a few years after the explosion, while the Jansky Very Large Array can also detect the counterpart in a few decades. The proposed radio follow-up observation could solve the parameter degeneracy in the pulsar-driven SN model for optical/UV light curves, and could also give us clues to young neutron star scenarios for SLSNe-I and fast radio bursts.

  14. B-1 phagocytes: the myeloid face of B-1 cells.

    PubMed

    Popi, Ana Flavia

    2015-12-01

    The relationship between malignant B cells and macrophages has long been established. Furthermore, evolutionary studies have demonstrated that B cells from early vertebrates have both phagocytic and antibody production capabilities. In addition to their lymphoid nature, B-1 cells retain several myeloid characteristics. Various reports have demonstrated that B-1 cells can differentiate into phagocytes. However, descriptions of B-1 cells as a novel phagocyte cell member are rarely found in the literature. This review aims to present the available data regarding B-1 cell-derived phagocytes and also discusses how their existence might be relevant to hematopoiesis and immune responses. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

  15. Emissions from prescribed fires in temperate forest in south-east Australia: implications for carbon accounting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Possell, M.; Jenkins, M.; Bell, T. L.; Adams, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    We estimated emissions of carbon, as equivalent CO2 (CO2e), from planned fires in four sites in a south-eastern Australian forest. Emission estimates were calculated using measurements of fuel load and carbon content of different fuel types, before and after burning, and determination of fuel-specific emission factors. Median estimates of emissions for the four sites ranged from 20 to 139 Mg CO2e ha-1. Variability in estimates was a consequence of different burning efficiencies of each fuel type from the four sites. Higher emissions resulted from more fine fuel (twigs, decomposing matter, near-surface live and leaf litter) or coarse woody debris (CWD; > 25 mm diameter) being consumed. In order to assess the effect of declining information quantity and the inclusion of coarse woody debris when estimating emissions, Monte Carlo simulations were used to create seven scenarios where input parameters values were replaced by probability density functions. Calculation methods were (1) all measured data were constrained between measured maximum and minimum values for each variable; (2) as in (1) except the proportion of carbon within a fuel type was constrained between 0 and 1; (3) as in (2) but losses of mass caused by fire were replaced with burning efficiency factors constrained between 0 and 1; and (4) emissions were calculated using default values in the Australian National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA), National Inventory Report 2011, as appropriate for our sites. Effects of including CWD in calculations were assessed for calculation Method 1, 2 and 3 but not for Method 4 as the NGA does not consider this fuel type. Simulations demonstrate that the probability of estimating true median emissions declines strongly as the amount of information available declines. Including CWD in scenarios increased uncertainty in calculations because CWD is the most variable contributor to fuel load. Inclusion of CWD in scenarios generally increased the amount of carbon lost. We discuss

  16. A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

    2012-12-01

    There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

  17. Evaluation of costs associated with atmospheric mercury emission reductions from coal combustion in China in 2010 and projections for 2020.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yue; Ye, Xuejie; Yang, Tianjun; Li, Jinling; Chen, Long; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2018-01-01

    Coal combustion is the most significant anthropogenic mercury emission source in China. In 2013, China signed the Minamata Convention affirming that mercury emissions should be controlled more strictly. Therefore, an evaluation of the costs associated with atmospheric mercury emission reductions from China's coal combustion is essential. In this study, we estimated mercury abatement costs for coal combustion in China for 2010, based on a provincial technology-based mercury emission inventory. In addition, four scenarios were used to project abatement costs for 2020. Our results indicate that actual mercury emission related to coal combustion in 2010 was 300.8Mg, indicating a reduction amount of 174.7Mg. Under a policy-controlled scenario for 2020, approximately 49% of this mercury could be removed using air pollution control devices, making mercury emissions in 2020 equal to or lower than in 2010. The total abatement cost associated with mercury emissions in 2010 was 50.2×10 9 RMB. In contrast, the total abatement costs for 2020 under baseline versus policy-controlled scenarios, having high-energy and low-energy consumption, would be 32.0×10 9 versus 51.2×10 9 , and 27.4×10 9 versus 43.9×10 9 RMB, respectively. The main expense is associated with flue gas desulfurization. The unit abatement cost of mercury emissions in 2010 was 288×10 3 RMB/(kgHg). The unit abatement costs projected for 2020 under a baseline, a policy-controlled, and an United Nations Environmental Programme scenario would be 143×10 3 , 172×10 3 and 1066×10 3 RMB/(kgHg), respectively. These results are much lower than other international ones. However, the relative costs to China in terms of GPD are higher than in most developed countries. We calculated that abatement costs related to mercury emissions accounted for about 0.14% of the GDP of China in 2010, but would be between 0.03% and 0.06% in 2020. This decrease in abatement costs in terms of GDP suggests that various policy

  18. Light-curve analysis of KOI 2700b: the second extrasolar planet with a comet-like tail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garai, Z.

    2018-03-01

    Context. The Kepler object KOI 2700b (KIC 8639908b) was discovered recently as the second exoplanet with a comet-like tail. It exhibits a distinctly asymmetric transit profile, likely indicative of the emission of dusty effluents and reminiscent of KIC 12557548b, the first exoplanet with a comet-like tail. Aim. The scientific goal of this work is to verify the disintegrating-planet scenario of KOI 2700b by modeling its light curve and to put constraints on various tail and planet properties, as was done in the case of KIC 12557548b. Methods: We obtained the phase-folded and binned transit light curve of KOI 2700b, which we subsequently iteratively modeled using the radiative-transfer code SHELLSPEC. We modeled the comet-like tail as part of a ring around the parent star and we also included the solid body of the planet in the model. During the modeling we applied selected species and dust particle sizes. Results: We confirmed the disintegrating-planet scenario of KOI 2700b. Furthermore, via modeling, we derived some interesting features of KOI 2700b and its comet-like tail. It turns out that the orbital plane of the planet and its tail are not edge-on, but the orbital inclination angle is from the interval [85.1, 88.6] deg. In comparison with KIC 12557548b, KOI 2700b exhibits a relatively low dust density decreasing in its tail. We also derived the dust density at the beginning of the ring and the highest optical depth through the tail in front of the star, based on a tail-model with a cross-section of 0.05 × 0.05 R⊙ at the beginning and 0.09 × 0.09 R⊙ at its end. Our results show that the dimension of the planet is Rp/Rs ≤ 0.014 (Rp ≤ 0.871 R⊕, or ≤5551 km). We also estimated the mass-loss rate from KOI 2700b, and we obtained Ṁ values from the interval [5.05 × 107, 4.41 × 1015] g s-1. On the other hand, we could not draw any satisfactory conclusions about the typical grain size in the dust tail.

  19. Carbonyl emissions in diesel and biodiesel exhaust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado Corrêa, Sérgio; Arbilla, Graciela

    With the use of biodiesel in clear growth, it is important to quantify any potential emission benefits or liabilities of this fuel. Several researches are available concerning the regulated emissions of biodiesel/diesel blends, but there is a lack of information about non-regulated emissions. In a previous paper [Corrêa, S.M., Arbilla, G., 2006. Emissões de formaldeído e acetaldeído de misturas biodiesel/diesel. Periódico Tchê Química, 3, 54-68], the emissions of aromatic hydrocarbons were reported. In this work, seven carbonyl emissions (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, acetone, propionaldehyde, butyraldehyde, and benzaldehyde) were evaluated by a heavy-duty diesel engine fueled with pure diesel (D) and biodiesel blends (v/v) of 2% (B2), 5% (B5), 10% (B10), and 20% (B20). The tests were conducted using a six cylinder heavy-duty engine, typical of the Brazilian fleet of urban buses, in a steady-state condition under 1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm. The exhaust gases were diluted nearly 20 times and the carbonyls were sampled with SiO 2-C18 cartridges, impregnated with acid solution of 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine. The chemical analyses were performed by high performance liquid chromatography using UV detection. Using average values for the three modes of operation (1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm) benzaldehyde showed a reduction on the emission (-3.4% for B2, -5.3% for B5, -5.7% for B10, and -6.9% for B20) and all other carbonyls showed a significative increase: 2.6, 7.3, 17.6, and 35.5% for formaldehyde; 1.4, 2.5, 5.4, and 15.8% for acetaldehyde; 2.1, 5.4, 11.1, and 22.0% for acrolein+acetone; 0.8, 2.7, 4.6, and 10.0% for propionaldehyde; 3.3, 7.8, 16.0, and 26.0% for butyraldehyde.

  20. Fermi LAT discovery of GeV gamma-ray emission from the young supernova remnan Cassiopeia A

    DOE PAGES

    Abdo, A. A.

    2010-01-27

    Here, we report on the first detection of GeV high-energy gamma-ray emission from a young supernova remnant (SNR) with the Large Area Telescope aboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Our observations reveal a source with no discernible spatial extension detected at a significance level of 12.2σ above 500 MeV at a location that is consistent with the position of the remnant of the supernova explosion that occurred around 1680 in the Cassiopeia constellation—Cassiopeia A (Cas A). The gamma-ray flux and spectral shape of the source are consistent with a scenario in which the gamma-ray emission originates from relativistic particles acceleratedmore » in the shell of this remnant. The total content of cosmic rays (electrons and protons) accelerated in Cas A can be estimated as W CR sime (1-4) × 1049 erg thanks to the well-known density in the remnant assuming that the observed gamma ray originates in the SNR shell(s). Finally, the magnetic field in the radio-emitting plasma can be robustly constrained as B ≥ 0.1 mG, providing new evidence of the magnetic field amplification at the forward shock and the strong field in the shocked ejecta.« less

  1. Assessing oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils under worst-case scenarios by automated in-line dynamic extraction as a front end to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Rosende, María; Magalhães, Luis M; Segundo, Marcela A; Miró, Manuel

    2014-09-09

    A novel biomimetic extraction procedure that allows for the in-line handing of ≥400 mg solid substrates is herein proposed for automatic ascertainment of trace element (TE) bioaccessibility in soils under worst-case conditions as per recommendations of ISO norms. A unified bioaccessibility/BARGE method (UBM)-like physiological-based extraction test is evaluated for the first time in a dynamic format for accurate assessment of in-vitro bioaccessibility of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in forest and residential-garden soils by on-line coupling of a hybrid flow set-up to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. Three biologically relevant operational extraction modes mimicking: (i) gastric juice extraction alone; (ii) saliva and gastric juice composite in unidirectional flow extraction format and (iii) saliva and gastric juice composite in a recirculation mode were thoroughly investigated. The extraction profiles of the three configurations using digestive fluids were proven to fit a first order reaction kinetic model for estimating the maximum TE bioaccessibility, that is, the actual worst-case scenario in human risk assessment protocols. A full factorial design, in which the sample amount (400-800 mg), the extractant flow rate (0.5-1.5 mL min(-1)) and the extraction temperature (27-37°C) were selected as variables for the multivariate optimization studies in order to obtain the maximum TE extractability. Two soils of varied physicochemical properties were analysed and no significant differences were found at the 0.05 significance level between the summation of leached concentrations of TE in gastric juice plus the residual fraction and the total concentration of the overall assayed metals determined by microwave digestion. These results showed the reliability and lack of bias (trueness) of the automatic biomimetic extraction approach using digestive juices. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    PubMed

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  3. Emissions of EC, OC, and PAHs from cottonseed oil biodiesel in a heavy-duty diesel engine.

    PubMed

    Song, Wei W; He, Ke B; Wang, Jian X; Wang, Xin T; Shi, Xiao Y; Yu, Chao; Chen, Wen M; Zheng, Liang

    2011-08-01

    Biodiesel fuels, made from renewable resources, have emerged as viable alternatives to conventional diesel fuel, but their impact on emissions is not fully understood. This study examines elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions from cottonseed oil biodiesel (CSO-B100). Relative to normal diesel fuel, CSO-B100 reduced EC emissions by 64% (±16%). The bulk of EC emitted from CSO-B100 was in the fine particle mode (<1.4 μm), which is similar to normal diesel. OC was found in all size ranges, whereas emissions of OC(1.4-2.5) were proportionately higher in OC(2.5) from CSO-B100 than from diesel. The CSO-B100 emission factors derived from this study are significantly lower, even without aftertreatment, than the China-4 emission standards established in Beijing and Euro-IV diesel engine standards. The toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for CSO-B100 was half the TEFs of diesel, which suggests that PAHs emitted from CSO-B100 may be less toxic.

  4. Relativistic Iron K Emission and Absorption in the Seyfert 1.9 Galaxy MCG-05-23-16

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braito, V.; Reeves, J. N.; Dewangan, G. C.; George, I.; Griffiths, R.; Markowitz, A.; Nandra, K.; Porquet, D.; Ptak, A.; Turner, T. J.; hide

    2007-01-01

    We present the results of the simultaneous deep XMM-Newton and Chandra observations of the bright Seyfert 1.9 galaxy MCG-5-23-16, which is thought to have one of the best known examples of a relativistically broadened iron Kalpha line. We detected a narrow sporadic absorption line at 7.7 keV which appears to be variable on a time-scale of 20 ksec. If associated with FeXXVI this absorption is indicative of a possible variable high ionization, high velocity outflow. The time averaged spectral analysis shows that the iron K-shell complex is best modeled with an unresolved narrow emission component (FWHM less than 5000 kilometers per second, EW approx. 60 eV) plus a broad component. This latter component has FWHM approx. 44000 kilometers per second, an EW approx. 50 eV and its profile is well described with an emission line originating from the accretion disk viewed with an inclination angle approx. 40 deg. and with the emission arising from within a few tens of gravitational radii of the central black hole. The time-resolved spectral analysis of the XMM-Newton EPIC-pn spectrum shows that both the narrow and broad components of the Fe K emission line appear to be constant within the errors. The analysis of the XMM-Newton/RGS spectrum reveals that the soft X-ray emission of MCG-5-23-16 is likely dominated by several emission lines superimposed on an unabsorbed scattered power-law continuum. The lack of strong Fe L shell emission together with the detection of a strong forbidden line in the O VII triplet supports a scenario where the soft X ray emission lines are produced in a plasma photoionized by the nuclear emission.

  5. Impact of subclinical mastitis on greenhouse gas emissions intensity and profitability of dairy cows in Norway.

    PubMed

    Özkan Gülzari, Şeyda; Vosough Ahmadi, Bouda; Stott, Alistair W

    2018-02-01

    Impaired animal health causes both productivity and profitability losses on dairy farms, resulting in inefficient use of inputs and increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced per unit of product (i.e. emissions intensity). Here, we used subclinical mastitis as an exemplar to benchmark alternative scenarios against an economic optimum and adjusted herd structure to estimate the GHG emissions intensity associated with varying levels of disease. Five levels of somatic cell count (SCC) classes were considered namely 50,000 (i.e. SCC50), 200,000, 400,000, 600,000 and 800,000cells/mL (milliliter) of milk. The effects of varying levels of SCC on milk yield reduction and consequential milk price penalties were used in a dynamic programming (DP) model that maximizes the profit per cow, represented as expected net present value, by choosing optimal animal replacement rates. The GHG emissions intensities associated with different levels of SCC were then computed using a farm-scale model (HolosNor). The total culling rates of both primiparous (PP) and multiparous (MP) cows for the five levels of SCC scenarios estimated by the model varied from a minimum of 30.9% to a maximum of 43.7%. The expected profit was the highest for cows with SCC200 due to declining margin over feed, which influenced the DP model to cull and replace more animals and generate higher profit under this scenario compared to SCC50. The GHG emission intensities for the PP and MP cows with SCC50 were 1.01kg (kilogram) and 0.95kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2 e) per kg fat and protein corrected milk (FPCM), respectively, with the lowest emissions being achieved in SCC50. Our results show that there is a potential to reduce the farm GHG emissions intensity by 3.7% if the milk production was improved through reducing the level of SCC to 50,000cells/mL in relation to SCC level 800,000cells/mL. It was concluded that preventing and/or controlling subclinical mastitis consequently reduces the GHG

  6. 40 CFR 61.52 - Emission standard.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... EMISSION STANDARDS FOR HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS National Emission Standard for Mercury § 61.52 Emission standard. (a) Emissions to the atmosphere from mercury ore processing facilities and mercury cell chlor-alkali plants shall not exceed 2.3 kg (5.1 lb) of mercury per 24-hour period. (b) Emissions to the...

  7. The Metastasis Efficiency Modifier Ribosomal RNA Processing 1 Homolog B (RRP1B) Is a Chromatin-associated Factor*

    PubMed Central

    Crawford, Nigel P. S.; Yang, Hailiu; Mattaini, Katherine R.; Hunter, Kent W.

    2009-01-01

    There is accumulating evidence for a role of germ line variation in breast cancer metastasis. We have recently identified a novel metastasis susceptibility gene, Rrp1b (ribosomal RNA processing 1 homolog B). Overexpression of Rrp1b in a mouse mammary tumor cell line induces a gene expression signature that predicts survival in breast cancer. Here we extend the analysis of RRP1B function by demonstrating that the Rrp1b activation gene expression signature accurately predicted the outcome in three of four publicly available breast carcinoma gene expression data sets. In addition, we provide insights into the mechanism of RRP1B. Tandem affinity purification demonstrated that RRP1B physically interacts with many nucleosome binding factors, including histone H1X, poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase 1, TRIM28 (tripartite motif-containing 28), and CSDA (cold shock domain protein A). Co-immunofluorescence and co-immunoprecipitation confirmed these interactions and also interactions with heterochromatin protein-1α and acetyl-histone H4 lysine 5. Finally, we investigated the effects of ectopic expression of an RRP1B allelic variant previously associated with improved survival in breast cancer. Gene expression analyses demonstrate that, compared with ectopic expression of wild type RRP1B in HeLa cells, the variant RRP1B differentially modulates various transcription factors controlled by TRIM28 and CSDA. These data suggest that RRP1B, a tumor progression and metastasis susceptibility candidate gene, is potentially a dynamic modulator of transcription and chromatin structure. PMID:19710015

  8. The emission spectroscopy of the B2Σ- -X2 Π system of CD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szajna, W.; Zachwieja, M.; Hakalla, R.

    2016-06-01

    The visible spectrum of CD has been investigated at high resolution between 24,500 and 27,500 cm-1 using a high accuracy dispersive optical spectroscopy technique. The CD molecules were produced and excited in a stainless steel hollow-cathode lamp with two anodes and filled with a mixture of He buffer gas and CD4. The emission from the discharge was observed with a plane grating spectrograph and recorded by a photomultiplier tube. The 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 bands of the B2Σ- -X2 Π transition have been registered and measured, while 2-0 and 2-1 absorption bands (Herzberg and Johns, 1969) have been reanalyzed. The current data were elaborated with help of recent X2 Π ground state parameters reported by Zachwieja et al. (2012) from investigation of the A2 Δ -X2 Π transition. This way, the improved spectroscopic constants for the B2Σ- state of CD have been provided as follows: νe = 26,050.787 (11) cm-1, ωe = 1653.019 (25) cm-1, ωexe = 123.899 (12) cm-1, Be = 7.08296 (32) cm-1, αe = 0.30741 (84) cm-1, and γe = - 0.10727 (42) cm-1.

  9. (π−1) → (π−1), (π−1) emission spectra of chlorofluorobenzene cations in the gaseous phase and their lifetimes in the (0o) states

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Maier, John Paul; Marthaler, O.; Mohraz, Manijeh; Shiley, R.H.

    1980-01-01

    The radiative decay of seventeen electronically excited chlorofluorobenzene cations in the gaseous phase has been detected. The reported emission spectra, which have been obtained using low energy electron beam excitation, are assigned to the B(??-1 ??? X(??-1 electronic transitions of these cations on the basis of their Ne(I) photoelectron spectra. In another sixteen chloroflourobenzene cations, the B ??? X radiative decay could not be detected, from which is inferred that the B states are now associated with Cl 3p(??-1 ionisation processes. The lifetimes of the studied cations in the lowest vibrational levels of the B(??-1 state have been measured. ?? 1980.

  10. The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius

    PubMed Central

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Petrone, Pierpaolo; Pappalardo, Lucia; Sheridan, Michael F.

    2006-01-01

    A volcanic catastrophe even more devastating than the famous anno Domini 79 Pompeii eruption occurred during the Old Bronze Age at Vesuvius. The 3780-yr-B.P. Avellino plinian eruption produced an early violent pumice fallout and a late pyroclastic surge sequence that covered the volcano surroundings as far as 25 km away, burying land and villages. Here we present the reconstruction of this prehistoric catastrophe and its impact on the Bronze Age culture in Campania, drawn from an interdisciplinary volcanological and archaeoanthropological study. Evidence shows that a sudden, en masse evacuation of thousands of people occurred at the beginning of the eruption, before the last destructive plinian column collapse. Most of the fugitives likely survived, but the desertification of the total habitat due to the huge eruption size caused a social–demographic collapse and the abandonment of the entire area for centuries. Because an event of this scale is capable of devastating a broad territory that includes the present metropolitan district of Naples, it should be considered as a reference for the worst eruptive scenario at Vesuvius. PMID:16537390

  11. Switching to a U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet: The resultant change in emissions, energy use, and greenhouse gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colella, W. G.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Golden, D. M.

    This study examines the potential change in primary emissions and energy use from replacing the current U.S. fleet of fossil-fuel on-road vehicles (FFOV) with hybrid electric fossil fuel vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCV). Emissions and energy usage are analyzed for three different HFCV scenarios, with hydrogen produced from: (1) steam reforming of natural gas, (2) electrolysis powered by wind energy, and (3) coal gasification. With the U.S. EPA's National Emission Inventory as the baseline, other emission inventories are created using a life cycle assessment (LCA) of alternative fuel supply chains. For a range of reasonable HFCV efficiencies and methods of producing hydrogen, we find that the replacement of FFOV with HFCV significantly reduces emission associated with air pollution, compared even with a switch to hybrids. All HFCV scenarios decrease net air pollution emission, including nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, ammonia, and carbon monoxide. These reductions are achieved with hydrogen production from either a fossil fuel source such as natural gas or a renewable source such as wind. Furthermore, replacing FFOV with hybrids or HFCV with hydrogen derived from natural gas, wind or coal may reduce the global warming impact of greenhouse gases and particles (measured in carbon dioxide equivalent emission) by 6, 14, 23, and 1%, respectively. Finally, even if HFCV are fueled by a fossil fuel such as natural gas, if no carbon is sequestered during hydrogen production, and 1% of methane in the feedstock gas is leaked to the environment, natural gas HFCV still may achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas and air pollution emission over FFOV.

  12. Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase 1B (PTP1B): A Potential Target for Alzheimer's Therapy?

    PubMed

    Vieira, Marcelo N N; Lyra E Silva, Natalia M; Ferreira, Sergio T; De Felice, Fernanda G

    2017-01-01

    Despite significant advances in current understanding of mechanisms of pathogenesis in Alzheimer's disease (AD), attempts at drug development based on those discoveries have failed to translate into effective, disease-modifying therapies. AD is a complex and multifactorial disease comprising a range of aberrant cellular/molecular processes taking part in different cell types and brain regions. As a consequence, therapeutics for AD should be able to block or compensate multiple abnormal pathological events. Here, we examine recent evidence that inhibition of protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) may represent a promising strategy to combat a variety of AD-related detrimental processes. Besides its well described role as a negative regulator of insulin and leptin signaling, PTB1B recently emerged as a modulator of various other processes in the central nervous system (CNS) that are also implicated in AD. These include signaling pathways germane to learning and memory, regulation of synapse dynamics, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and microglia-mediated neuroinflammation. We propose that PTP1B inhibition may represent an attractive and yet unexplored therapeutic approach to correct aberrant signaling pathways linked to AD.

  13. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

    2015-01-01

    As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

  14. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

    2015-01-01

    As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

  15. Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Implications for public health, soil acidification, and global temperature.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yu; McElroy, Michael B; Xing, Jia; Duan, Lei; Nielsen, Chris P; Lei, Yu; Hao, Jiming

    2011-11-15

    Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1-7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2. Copyright

  16. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  17. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-12-31

    The application uses predictions of future annual precipitation from five climate models and two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and provides results that are averaged over three future periods—2025 to 2049, 2050 to 2074, and 2075 to 2099. Results are presented in ensemble form as the mean, median, maximum, and minimum values among the five climate models for each greenhouse gas emissions scenario and period. These predictions of future annual precipitation are substituted into either the precipitation variable or a water balance equation for runoff to calculate potential future peak flows. This application is intended to be used only as an exploratory tool because (1) the regression equations on which the application is based have not been adequately tested outside the range of the current climate and (2) forecasting future precipitation with climate models and downscaling these results to a fine spatial resolution have a high degree of uncertainty. This report includes a discussion of the assumptions, uncertainties, and appropriate use of this exploratory application.

  18. Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2017-12-01

    Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

  19. Development of a life-cycle fugitive methane emissions model utilizing device level emissions and activity factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Englander, J.; Brandt, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    There has been numerous studies in quantifying the scale of fugitive emissions from across the natural gas value chain. These studies have typically focused on either specific types of equipment (such as valves) or on a single part of the life-cycle of natural gas production (such as gathering stations).1,2 However it has been demonstrated that average emissions factors are not sufficient for representing leaks in the natural gas system.3 In this work, we develop a robust estimate of fugitive emissions rates by incorporating all publicly available studies done at the component up to the process level. From these known studies, we create a database of leaks with normalized nomenclature from which leak estimates can be drawn from actual leak observations. From this database, and parameterized by meta-data such as location, scale of study, or placement in the life-cycle, we construct stochastic emissions factors specific for each process unit. This will be an integrated tool as part of the Oil production greenhouse gas estimator (OPGEE) as well as the Fugitive Emissions Abatement Simulation Toolkit (FEAST) models to enhances their treatment of venting and fugitive emissions, and will be flexible to include user provided data and input parameters.4,51. Thoma, ED et al. Assessment of Uinta Basin Oil and Natural Gas Well Pad Pneumatic Controller Emissions. J. Environ. Prot. 2017. 2. Marchese, AJ et al. Methane Emissions from United States Natural Gas Gathering and Processing. ES&T 2015. doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b02275 3. Brandt, AR et al. Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions. ES&T 2016. doi:10.1021/acs.est.6b04303 4. El-Houjeiri, HM et al. An open-source LCA tool estimating greenhouse gas emissions from crude oil production using field characteristics. ES&T 2013. doi: 10.1021/es304570m 5. Kemp, CE et al. Comparing Natural Gas Leakage Detection Technologies Using an Open-Source `Virtual Gas Field' Simulator. ES&T 2016. doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b

  20. Improved rice residue burning emissions estimates: Accounting for practice-specific emission factors in air pollution assessments of Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Lasko, Kristofer; Vadrevu, Krishna

    2018-05-01

    In Southeast Asia and Vietnam, rice residues are routinely burned after the harvest to prepare fields for the next season. Specific to Vietnam, the two prevalent burning practices include: a). piling the residues after hand harvesting; b). burning the residues without piling, after machine harvesting. In this study, we synthesized field and laboratory studies from the literature on rice residue burning emission factors for PM 2.5 . We found significant differences in the resulting burning-practice specific emission factors, with 16.9 g kg -2 (±6.9) for pile burning and 8.8 g kg -2 (±3.5) for non-pile burning. We calculated burning-practice specific emissions based on rice area data, region-specific fuel-loading factors, combined emission factors, and estimates of burning from the literature. Our results for year 2015 estimate 180 Gg of PM 2.5 result from the pile burning method and 130 Gg result from non-pile burning method, with the most-likely current emission scenario of 150 Gg PM 2.5 emissions for Vietnam. For comparison purposes, we calculated emissions using generalized agricultural emission factors employed in global biomass burning studies. These results estimate 80 Gg PM 2.5 , which is only 44% of the pile burning-based estimates, suggesting underestimation in previous studies. We compare our emissions to an existing all-combustion sources inventory, results show emissions account for 14-18% of Vietnam's total PM 2.5 depending on burning practice. Within the highly-urbanized and cloud-covered Hanoi Capital region (HCR), we use rice area from Sentinel-1A to derive spatially-explicit emissions and indirectly estimate residue burning dates. Results from HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis stratified by season show autumn has most emission trajectories originating in the North, while spring has most originating in the South, suggesting the latter may have bigger impact on air quality. From these results, we highlight locations where emission