Sample records for ability estimation methods

  1. Developing an Efficient Computational Method that Estimates the Ability of Students in a Web-Based Learning Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Young-Jin

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a computational method that can efficiently estimate the ability of students from the log files of a Web-based learning environment capturing their problem solving processes. The computational method developed in this study approximates the posterior distribution of the student's ability obtained from the conventional Bayes…

  2. Effects of Content Balancing and Item Selection Method on Ability Estimation in Computerized Adaptive Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sahin, Alper; Ozbasi, Durmus

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to reveal effects of content balancing and item selection method on ability estimation in computerized adaptive tests by comparing Fisher's maximum information (FMI) and likelihood weighted information (LWI) methods. Research Methods: Four groups of examinees (250, 500, 750, 1000) and a bank of 500 items with 10 different…

  3. An Investigation of the Standard Errors of Expected A Posteriori Ability Estimates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Ayala, R. J.; And Others

    Expected a posteriori has a number of advantages over maximum likelihood estimation or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation methods. These include ability estimates (thetas) for all response patterns, less regression towards the mean than MAP ability estimates, and a lower average squared error. R. D. Bock and R. J. Mislevy (1982) state that the…

  4. Estimating Premorbid Cognitive Abilities in Low-Educated Populations

    PubMed Central

    Apolinario, Daniel; Brucki, Sonia Maria Dozzi; Ferretti, Renata Eloah de Lucena; Farfel, José Marcelo; Magaldi, Regina Miksian; Busse, Alexandre Leopold; Jacob-Filho, Wilson

    2013-01-01

    Objective To develop an informant-based instrument that would provide a valid estimate of premorbid cognitive abilities in low-educated populations. Methods A questionnaire was drafted by focusing on the premorbid period with a 10-year time frame. The initial pool of items was submitted to classical test theory and a factorial analysis. The resulting instrument, named the Premorbid Cognitive Abilities Scale (PCAS), is composed of questions addressing educational attainment, major lifetime occupation, reading abilities, reading habits, writing abilities, calculation abilities, use of widely available technology, and the ability to search for specific information. The validation sample was composed of 132 older Brazilian adults from the following three demographically matched groups: normal cognitive aging (n = 72), mild cognitive impairment (n = 33), and mild dementia (n = 27). The scores of a reading test and a neuropsychological battery were adopted as construct criteria. Post-mortem inter-informant reliability was tested in a sub-study with two relatives from each deceased individual. Results All items presented good discriminative power, with corrected item-total correlation varying from 0.35 to 0.74. The summed score of the instrument presented high correlation coefficients with global cognitive function (r = 0.73) and reading skills (r = 0.82). Cronbach's alpha was 0.90, showing optimal internal consistency without redundancy. The scores did not decrease across the progressive levels of cognitive impairment, suggesting that the goal of evaluating the premorbid state was achieved. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.96, indicating excellent inter-informant reliability. Conclusion The instrument developed in this study has shown good properties and can be used as a valid estimate of premorbid cognitive abilities in low-educated populations. The applicability of the PCAS, both as an estimate of premorbid intelligence and cognitive

  5. Surround-Masking Affects Visual Estimation Ability

    PubMed Central

    Jastrzebski, Nicola R.; Hugrass, Laila E.; Crewther, Sheila G.; Crewther, David P.

    2017-01-01

    Visual estimation of numerosity involves the discrimination of magnitude between two distributions or perceptual sets that vary in number of elements. How performance on such estimation depends on peripheral sensory stimulation is unclear, even in typically developing adults. Here, we varied the central and surround contrast of stimuli that comprised a visual estimation task in order to determine whether mechanisms involved with the removal of unessential visual input functionally contributes toward number acuity. The visual estimation judgments of typically developed adults were significantly impaired for high but not low contrast surround stimulus conditions. The center and surround contrasts of the stimuli also differentially affected the accuracy of numerosity estimation depending on whether fewer or more dots were presented. Remarkably, observers demonstrated the highest mean percentage accuracy across stimulus conditions in the discrimination of more elements when the surround contrast was low and the background luminance of the central region containing the elements was dark (black center). Conversely, accuracy was severely impaired during the discrimination of fewer elements when the surround contrast was high and the background luminance of the central region was mid level (gray center). These findings suggest that estimation ability is functionally related to the quality of low-order filtration of unessential visual information. These surround masking results may help understanding of the poor visual estimation ability commonly observed in developmental dyscalculia. PMID:28360845

  6. Do Self-Efficacy and Ability Self-Estimate Scores Reflect Distinct Facets of Ability Judgments?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, Jo-Ida C.; Bubany, Shawn T.

    2008-01-01

    Vocational psychology has generated a number of concepts and assessment instruments considered to reflect ability self-concept (i.e., one's view of one's own abilities) relevant to career development. These concepts and measures often are categorized as either self efficacy beliefs or self-estimated (i.e., self-rated, self-evaluated) abilities.…

  7. Investigating the Impact of Uncertainty about Item Parameters on Ability Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Jinming; Xie, Minge; Song, Xiaolan; Lu, Ting

    2011-01-01

    Asymptotic expansions of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and weighted likelihood estimator (WLE) of an examinee's ability are derived while item parameter estimators are treated as covariates measured with error. The asymptotic formulae present the amount of bias of the ability estimators due to the uncertainty of item parameter estimators.…

  8. Bias Correction for the Maximum Likelihood Estimate of Ability. Research Report. ETS RR-05-15

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Jinming

    2005-01-01

    Lord's bias function and the weighted likelihood estimation method are effective in reducing the bias of the maximum likelihood estimate of an examinee's ability under the assumption that the true item parameters are known. This paper presents simulation studies to determine the effectiveness of these two methods in reducing the bias when the item…

  9. Item Selection and Ability Estimation Procedures for a Mixed-Format Adaptive Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Tsung-Han; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2012-01-01

    In this study we compared five item selection procedures using three ability estimation methods in the context of a mixed-format adaptive test based on the generalized partial credit model. The item selection procedures used were maximum posterior weighted information, maximum expected information, maximum posterior weighted Kullback-Leibler…

  10. Hierarchical State-Space Estimation of Leatherback Turtle Navigation Ability

    PubMed Central

    Mills Flemming, Joanna; Jonsen, Ian D.; Field, Christopher A.

    2010-01-01

    Remotely sensed tracking technology has revealed remarkable migration patterns that were previously unknown; however, models to optimally use such data have developed more slowly. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayes state-space framework that allows us to combine tracking data from a collection of animals and make inferences at both individual and broader levels. We formulate models that allow the navigation ability of animals to be estimated and demonstrate how information can be combined over many animals to allow improved estimation. We also show how formal hypothesis testing regarding navigation ability can easily be accomplished in this framework. Using Argos satellite tracking data from 14 leatherback turtles, 7 males and 7 females, during their southward migration from Nova Scotia, Canada, we find that the circle of confusion (the radius around an animal's location within which it is unable to determine its location precisely) is approximately 96 km. This estimate suggests that the turtles' navigation does not need to be highly accurate, especially if they are able to use more reliable cues as they near their destination. Moreover, for the 14 turtles examined, there is little evidence to suggest that male and female navigation abilities differ. Because of the minimal assumptions made about the movement process, our approach can be used to estimate and compare navigation ability for many migratory species that are able to carry electronic tracking devices. PMID:21203382

  11. Bootstrap Standard Errors for Maximum Likelihood Ability Estimates When Item Parameters Are Unknown

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patton, Jeffrey M.; Cheng, Ying; Yuan, Ke-Hai; Diao, Qi

    2014-01-01

    When item parameter estimates are used to estimate the ability parameter in item response models, the standard error (SE) of the ability estimate must be corrected to reflect the error carried over from item calibration. For maximum likelihood (ML) ability estimates, a corrected asymptotic SE is available, but it requires a long test and the…

  12. Estimation abilities of large numerosities in Kindergartners

    PubMed Central

    Mejias, Sandrine; Schiltz, Christine

    2013-01-01

    The approximate number system (ANS) is thought to be a building block for the elaboration of formal mathematics. However, little is known about how this core system develops and if it can be influenced by external factors at a young age (before the child enters formal numeracy education). The purpose of this study was to examine numerical magnitude representations of 5–6 year old children at 2 different moments of Kindergarten considering children's early number competence as well as schools' socio-economic index (SEI). This study investigated estimation abilities of large numerosities using symbolic and non-symbolic output formats (8–64). In addition, we assessed symbolic and non-symbolic early number competence (1–12) at the end of the 2nd (N = 42) and the 3rd (N = 32) Kindergarten grade. By letting children freely produce estimates we observed surprising estimation abilities at a very young age (from 5 year on) extending far beyond children's symbolic explicit knowledge. Moreover, the time of testing has an impact on the ANS accuracy since 3rd Kindergarteners were more precise in both estimation tasks. Additionally, children who presented better exact symbolic knowledge were also those with the most refined ANS. However, this was true only for 3rd Kindergarteners who were a few months from receiving math instructions. In a similar vein, higher SEI positively impacted only the oldest children's estimation abilities whereas it played a role for exact early number competences already in 2nd and 3rd graders. Our results support the view that approximate numerical representations are linked to exact number competence in young children before the start of formal math education and might thus serve as building blocks for mathematical knowledge. Since this core number system was also sensitive to external components such as the SEI this implies that it can most probably be targeted and refined through specific educational strategies from preschool on. PMID

  13. Spurious Latent Class Problem in the Mixed Rasch Model: A Comparison of Three Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods under Different Ability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sen, Sedat

    2018-01-01

    Recent research has shown that over-extraction of latent classes can be observed in the Bayesian estimation of the mixed Rasch model when the distribution of ability is non-normal. This study examined the effect of non-normal ability distributions on the number of latent classes in the mixed Rasch model when estimated with maximum likelihood…

  14. Mathematical Ability and Socio-Economic Background: IRT Modeling to Estimate Genotype by Environment Interaction.

    PubMed

    Schwabe, Inga; Boomsma, Dorret I; van den Berg, Stéphanie M

    2017-12-01

    Genotype by environment interaction in behavioral traits may be assessed by estimating the proportion of variance that is explained by genetic and environmental influences conditional on a measured moderating variable, such as a known environmental exposure. Behavioral traits of interest are often measured by questionnaires and analyzed as sum scores on the items. However, statistical results on genotype by environment interaction based on sum scores can be biased due to the properties of a scale. This article presents a method that makes it possible to analyze the actually observed (phenotypic) item data rather than a sum score by simultaneously estimating the genetic model and an item response theory (IRT) model. In the proposed model, the estimation of genotype by environment interaction is based on an alternative parametrization that is uniquely identified and therefore to be preferred over standard parametrizations. A simulation study shows good performance of our method compared to analyzing sum scores in terms of bias. Next, we analyzed data of 2,110 12-year-old Dutch twin pairs on mathematical ability. Genetic models were evaluated and genetic and environmental variance components estimated as a function of a family's socio-economic status (SES). Results suggested that common environmental influences are less important in creating individual differences in mathematical ability in families with a high SES than in creating individual differences in mathematical ability in twin pairs with a low or average SES.

  15. Career Interests and Self-Estimated Abilities of Young Adults with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, Sherri; Unkefer, Lesley Craig; Cichy, Bryan Ervin; Peper, Christine; Juang, Ju-Ping

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to ascertain vocational interests and self-estimated work-relevant abilities of young adults with disabilities. Results showed that young adults with both low incidence and high incidence disabilities have a wide range of interests and self-estimated work-relevant abilities that are comparable to those in the general…

  16. On the asymptotic standard error of a class of robust estimators of ability in dichotomous item response models.

    PubMed

    Magis, David

    2014-11-01

    In item response theory, the classical estimators of ability are highly sensitive to response disturbances and can return strongly biased estimates of the true underlying ability level. Robust methods were introduced to lessen the impact of such aberrant responses on the estimation process. The computation of asymptotic (i.e., large-sample) standard errors (ASE) for these robust estimators, however, has not yet been fully considered. This paper focuses on a broad class of robust ability estimators, defined by an appropriate selection of the weight function and the residual measure, for which the ASE is derived from the theory of estimating equations. The maximum likelihood (ML) and the robust estimators, together with their estimated ASEs, are then compared in a simulation study by generating random guessing disturbances. It is concluded that both the estimators and their ASE perform similarly in the absence of random guessing, while the robust estimator and its estimated ASE are less biased and outperform their ML counterparts in the presence of random guessing with large impact on the item response process. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Ability Self-Estimates and Self-Efficacy: Meaningfully Distinct?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bubany, Shawn T.; Hansen, Jo-Ida C.

    2010-01-01

    Conceptual differences between self-efficacy and ability self-estimate scores, used in vocational psychology and career counseling, were examined with confirmatory factor analysis, discriminate relations, and reliability analysis. Results suggest that empirical differences may be due to measurement error or scale content, rather than due to the…

  18. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

    PubMed Central

    Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

    2013-01-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

  19. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age.

    PubMed

    Royle, Natalie A; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E; Deary, Ian J; Wardlaw, Joanna M

    2013-12-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Three estimates of the association between linear growth failure and cognitive ability.

    PubMed

    Cheung, Y B; Lam, K F

    2009-09-01

    To compare three estimators of association between growth stunting as measured by height-for-age Z-score and cognitive ability in children, and to examine the extent statistical adjustment for covariates is useful for removing confounding due to socio-economic status. Three estimators, namely random-effects, within- and between-cluster estimators, for panel data were used to estimate the association in a survey of 1105 pairs of siblings who were assessed for anthropometry and cognition. Furthermore, a 'combined' model was formulated to simultaneously provide the within- and between-cluster estimates. Random-effects and between-cluster estimators showed strong association between linear growth and cognitive ability, even after adjustment for a range of socio-economic variables. In contrast, the within-cluster estimator showed a much more modest association: For every increase of one Z-score in linear growth, cognitive ability increased by about 0.08 standard deviation (P < 0.001). The combined model verified that the between-cluster estimate was significantly larger than the within-cluster estimate (P = 0.004). Residual confounding by socio-economic situations may explain a substantial proportion of the observed association between linear growth and cognition in studies that attempt to control the confounding by means of multivariable regression analysis. The within-cluster estimator provides more convincing and modest results about the strength of association.

  1. A Note on the Reliability Coefficients for Item Response Model-Based Ability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Seonghoon

    2012-01-01

    Assuming item parameters on a test are known constants, the reliability coefficient for item response theory (IRT) ability estimates is defined for a population of examinees in two different ways: as (a) the product-moment correlation between ability estimates on two parallel forms of a test and (b) the squared correlation between the true…

  2. Comparing Different Approaches of Bias Correction for Ability Estimation in IRT Models. Research Report. ETS RR-08-13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Yi-Hsuan; Zhang, Jinming

    2008-01-01

    The method of maximum-likelihood is typically applied to item response theory (IRT) models when the ability parameter is estimated while conditioning on the true item parameters. In practice, the item parameters are unknown and need to be estimated first from a calibration sample. Lewis (1985) and Zhang and Lu (2007) proposed the expected response…

  3. Estimation of phenotypic variability in symbiotic nitrogen fixation ability of common bean under drought stress using 15N natural abundance in grain.

    PubMed

    Polania, Jose; Poschenrieder, Charlotte; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important food legume, cultivated by small farmers and is usually exposed to unfavorable conditions with minimum use of inputs. Drought and low soil fertility, especially phosphorus and nitrogen (N) deficiencies, are major limitations to bean yield in smallholder systems. Beans can derive part of their required N from the atmosphere through symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF). Drought stress severely limits SNF ability of plants. The main objectives of this study were to: (i) test and validate the use of 15 N natural abundance in grain to quantify phenotypic differences in SNF ability for its implementation in breeding programs of common bean with bush growth habit aiming to improve SNF, and (ii) quantify phenotypic differences in SNF under drought to identify superior genotypes that could serve as parents. Field studies were conducted at CIAT-Palmira, Colombia using a set of 36 bean genotypes belonging to the Middle American gene pool for evaluation in two seasons with two levels of water supply (irrigated and drought stress). We used 15 N natural abundance method to compare SNF ability estimated from shoot tissue sampled at mid-pod filling growth stage vs. grain tissue sampled at harvest. Our results showed positive and significant correlation between nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) estimated using shoot tissue at mid-pod filling and %Ndfa estimated using grain tissue at harvest. Both methods showed phenotypic variability in SNF ability under both drought and irrigated conditions and a significant reduction in SNF ability was observed under drought stress. We suggest that the method of estimating Ndfa using grain tissue (Ndfa-G) could be applied in bean breeding programs to improve SNF ability. Using this method of Ndfa-G, we identified four bean lines (RCB 593, SEA 15, NCB 226 and BFS 29) that combine greater SNF ability with greater grain yield under drought stress and these could serve as potential

  4. Robust Estimation of Latent Ability in Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schuster, Christof; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2011-01-01

    Because of response disturbances such as guessing, cheating, or carelessness, item response models often can only approximate the "true" individual response probabilities. As a consequence, maximum-likelihood estimates of ability will be biased. Typically, the nature and extent to which response disturbances are present is unknown, and, therefore,…

  5. An empirical comparative study on biological age estimation algorithms with an application of Work Ability Index (WAI).

    PubMed

    Cho, Il Haeng; Park, Kyung S; Lim, Chang Joo

    2010-02-01

    In this study, we described the characteristics of five different biological age (BA) estimation algorithms, including (i) multiple linear regression, (ii) principal component analysis, and somewhat unique methods developed by (iii) Hochschild, (iv) Klemera and Doubal, and (v) a variant of Klemera and Doubal's method. The objective of this study is to find the most appropriate method of BA estimation by examining the association between Work Ability Index (WAI) and the differences of each algorithm's estimates from chronological age (CA). The WAI was found to be a measure that reflects an individual's current health status rather than the deterioration caused by a serious dependency with the age. Experiments were conducted on 200 Korean male participants using a BA estimation system developed principally under the concept of non-invasive, simple to operate and human function-based. Using the empirical data, BA estimation as well as various analyses including correlation analysis and discriminant function analysis was performed. As a result, it had been confirmed by the empirical data that Klemera and Doubal's method with uncorrelated variables from principal component analysis produces relatively reliable and acceptable BA estimates. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Clinical validation of the General Ability Index--Estimate (GAI-E): estimating premorbid GAI.

    PubMed

    Schoenberg, Mike R; Lange, Rael T; Iverson, Grant L; Chelune, Gordon J; Scott, James G; Adams, Russell L

    2006-09-01

    The clinical utility of the General Ability Index--Estimate (GAI-E; Lange, Schoenberg, Chelune, Scott, & Adams, 2005) for estimating premorbid GAI scores was investigated using the WAIS-III standardization clinical trials sample (The Psychological Corporation, 1997). The GAI-E algorithms combine Vocabulary, Information, Matrix Reasoning, and Picture Completion subtest raw scores with demographic variables to predict GAI. Ten GAI-E algorithms were developed combining demographic variables with single subtest scaled scores and with two subtests. Estimated GAI are presented for participants diagnosed with dementia (n = 50), traumatic brain injury (n = 20), Huntington's disease (n = 15), Korsakoff's disease (n = 12), chronic alcohol abuse (n = 32), temporal lobectomy (n = 17), and schizophrenia (n = 44). In addition, a small sample of participants without dementia and diagnosed with depression (n = 32) was used as a clinical comparison group. The GAI-E algorithms provided estimates of GAI that closely approximated scores expected for a healthy adult population. The greatest differences between estimated GAI and obtained GAI were observed for the single subtest GAI-E algorithms using the Vocabulary, Information, and Matrix Reasoning subtests. Based on these data, recommendations for the use of the GAI-E algorithms are presented.

  7. Flexible nonlinear estimates of the association between height and mental ability in early life.

    PubMed

    Murasko, Jason E

    2014-01-01

    To estimate associations between early-life mental ability and height/height-growth in contemporary US children. Structured additive regression models are used to flexibly estimate the associations between height and mental ability at approximately 24 months of age. The sample is taken from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort, a national study whose target population was children born in the US during 2001. A nonlinear association is indicated between height and mental ability at approximately 24 months of age. There is an increasing association between height and mental ability below the mean value of height, but a flat association thereafter. Annualized growth shows the same nonlinear association to ability when controlling for baseline length at 9 months. Restricted growth at lower values of the height distribution is associated with lower measured mental ability in contemporary US children during the first years of life. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Transient Stability Output Margin Estimation Based on Energy Function Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miwa, Natsuki; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

    In this paper, a new method of estimating critical generation margin (CGM) in power systems is proposed from the viewpoint of transient stability diagnostic. The proposed method has the capability to directly compute the stability limit output for a given contingency based on transient energy function method (TEF). Since CGM can be directly obtained by the limit output using estimated P-θ curves and is easy to understand, it is more useful rather than conventional critical clearing time (CCT) of energy function method. The proposed method can also estimate CGM as its negative value that means unstable in present load profile, then negative CGM can be directly utilized as generator output restriction. The proposed method is verified its accuracy and fast solution ability by applying to simple 3-machine model and IEEJ EAST10-machine standard model. Furthermore the useful application to severity ranking of transient stability for a lot of contingency cases is discussed by using CGM.

  9. The Asymptotic Distribution of Ability Estimates: Beyond Dichotomous Items and Unidimensional IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2015-01-01

    The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the ability parameter of an item response theory model with known item parameters was proved to be asymptotically normally distributed under a set of regularity conditions for tests involving dichotomous items and a unidimensional ability parameter (Klauer, 1990; Lord, 1983). This article first considers…

  10. Unwed fathers' ability to pay child support: new estimates accounting for multiple-partner fertility.

    PubMed

    Sinkewicz, Marilyn; Garfinkel, Irwin

    2009-05-01

    We present new estimates of unwed fathers' ability to pay child support. Prior research relied on surveys that drastically undercounted nonresident unwed fathers and provided no link to their children who lived in separate households. To overcome these limitations, previous research assumed assortative mating and that each mother partnered with one father who was actually eligible to pay support and had no other child support obligations. Because the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study contains data on couples, multiple-partner fertility, and a rich array of other previously unmeasured characteristics of fathers, it is uniquely suited to address the limitations of previous research. We also use an improved method of dealing with missing data. Our findings suggest that previous research overestimated the aggregate ability of unwed nonresident fathers to pay child support by 33% to 60%.

  11. Unwed Fathers’ Ability to Pay Child Support: New Estimates Accounting for Multiple-Partner Fertility

    PubMed Central

    SINKEWICZ, MARILYN; GARFINKEL, IRWIN

    2009-01-01

    We present new estimates of unwed fathers’ ability to pay child support. Prior research relied on surveys that drastically undercounted nonresident unwed fathers and provided no link to their children who lived in separate households. To overcome these limitations, previous research assumed assortative mating and that each mother partnered with one father who was actually eligible to pay support and had no other child support obligations. Because the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study contains data on couples, multiple-partner fertility, and a rich array of other previously unmeasured characteristics of fathers, it is uniquely suited to address the limitations of previous research. We also use an improved method of dealing with missing data. Our findings suggest that previous research overestimated the aggregate ability of unwed nonresident fathers to pay child support by 33% to 60%. PMID:21305392

  12. The relationship between vertical jump power estimates and weightlifting ability: a field-test approach.

    PubMed

    Carlock, Jon M; Smith, Sarah L; Hartman, Michael J; Morris, Robert T; Ciroslan, Dragomir A; Pierce, Kyle C; Newton, Robert U; Harman, Everett A; Sands, William A; Stone, Michael H

    2004-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the usefulness of the vertical jump and estimated vertical-jump power as a field test for weightlifting. Estimated PP output from the vertical jump was correlated with lifting ability among 64 USA national-level weightlifters (junior and senior men and women). Vertical jump was measured using the Kinematic Measurement System, consisting of a switch mat interfaced with a laptop computer. Vertical jumps were measured using a hands-on-hips method. A counter-movement vertical jump (CMJ) and a static vertical jump (SJ, 90 degrees knee angle) were measured. Two trials were given for each condition. Test-retest reliability for jump height was intra-class correlation (ICC) = 0.98 (CMJ) and ICC = 0.96 (SJ). Athletes warmed up on their own for 2-3 minutes, followed by 2 practice jumps at each condition. Peak power (PP) was estimated using the equations developed by Sayers et al. (24). The athletes' current lifting capabilities were assessed by a questionnaire, and USA national coaches checked the listed values. Differences between groups (i.e., men versus women, juniors versus resident lifters) were determined using t-tests (p < or = 0.05). Correlations were determined using Pearson's r. Results indicate that vertical jumping PP is strongly associated with weightlifting ability. Thus, these results indicate that PP derived from the vertical jump (CMJ or SJ) can be a valuable tool in assessing weightlifting performance.

  13. The Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to the Latent Ability Distribution. Research Report. ETS RR-11-40

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Xueli; Jia, Yue

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of item response model parameters and ability distribution parameters has been, and will remain, an important topic in the educational testing field. Much research has been dedicated to addressing this task. Some studies have focused on item parameter estimation when the latent ability was assumed to follow a normal distribution,…

  14. Refinement of a Bias-Correction Procedure for the Weighted Likelihood Estimator of Ability. Research Report. ETS RR-07-23

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Jinming; Lu, Ting

    2007-01-01

    In practical applications of item response theory (IRT), item parameters are usually estimated first from a calibration sample. After treating these estimates as fixed and known, ability parameters are then estimated. However, the statistical inferences based on the estimated abilities can be misleading if the uncertainty of the item parameter…

  15. Improving the Quality of Ability Estimates through Multidimensional Scoring and Incorporation of Ancillary Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de la Torre, Jimmy

    2009-01-01

    For one reason or another, various sources of information, namely, ancillary variables and correlational structure of the latent abilities, which are usually available in most testing situations, are ignored in ability estimation. A general model that incorporates these sources of information is proposed in this article. The model has a general…

  16. On the Relationships between Jeffreys Modal and Weighted Likelihood Estimation of Ability under Logistic IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on two estimators of ability with logistic item response theory models: the Bayesian modal (BM) estimator and the weighted likelihood (WL) estimator. For the BM estimator, Jeffreys' prior distribution is considered, and the corresponding estimator is referred to as the Jeffreys modal (JM) estimator. It is established that under…

  17. Modified microplate method for rapid and efficient estimation of siderophore produced by bacteria.

    PubMed

    Arora, Naveen Kumar; Verma, Maya

    2017-12-01

    In this study, siderophore production by various bacteria amongst the plant-growth-promoting rhizobacteria was quantified by a rapid and efficient method. In total, 23 siderophore-producing bacterial isolates/strains were taken to estimate their siderophore-producing ability by the standard method (chrome azurol sulphonate assay) as well as 96 well microplate method. Production of siderophore was estimated in percent siderophore unit by both the methods. It was observed that data obtained by both methods correlated positively with each other proving the correctness of microplate method. By the modified microplate method, siderophore production by several bacterial strains can be estimated both qualitatively and quantitatively at one go, saving time, chemicals, making it very less tedious, and also being cheaper in comparison with the method currently in use. The modified microtiter plate method as proposed here makes it far easier to screen the plant-growth-promoting character of plant-associated bacteria.

  18. Estimation of the binding ability of main transport proteins of blood plasma with liver cirrhosis by the fluorescent probe method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korolenko, E. A.; Korolik, E. V.; Korolik, A. K.; Kirkovskii, V. V.

    2007-07-01

    We present results from an investigation of the binding ability of the main transport proteins (albumin, lipoproteins, and α-1-acid glycoprotein) of blood plasma from patients at different stages of liver cirrhosis by the fluorescent probe method. We used the hydrophobic fluorescent probes anionic 8-anilinonaphthalene-1-sulfonate, which interacts in blood plasma mainly with albumin; cationic Quinaldine red, which interacts with α-1-acid glycoprotein; and neutral Nile red, which redistributes between lipoproteins and albumin in whole blood plasma. We show that the binding ability of albumin and α-1-acid glycoprotein to negatively charged and positively charged hydrophobic metabolites, respectively, increases in the compensation stage of liver cirrhosis. As the pathology process deepens and transitions into the decompensation stage, the transport abilities of albumin and α-1-acid glycoprotein decrease whereas the binding ability of lipoproteins remains high.

  19. Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

    2017-07-01

    We estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV’s ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely—from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city’s estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results, we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.

  20. Evaluation of multiple tracer methods to estimate low groundwater flow velocities

    DOE PAGES

    Reimus, Paul W.; Arnold, Bill W.

    2017-02-20

    Here, four different tracer methods were used to estimate groundwater flow velocity at a multiple-well site in the saturated alluvium south of Yucca Mountain, Nevada: (1) two single-well tracer tests with different rest or “shut-in” periods, (2) a cross-hole tracer test with an extended flow interruption, (3) a comparison of two tracer decay curves in an injection borehole with and without pumping of a downgradient well, and (4) a natural-gradient tracer test. Such tracer methods are potentially very useful for estimating groundwater velocities when hydraulic gradients are flat (and hence uncertain) and also when water level and hydraulic conductivity datamore » are sparse, both of which were the case at this test location. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the first three methods for their ability to provide reasonable estimates of relatively low groundwater flow velocities in such low-hydraulic-gradient environments. The natural-gradient method is generally considered to be the most robust and direct method, so it was used to provide a “ground truth” velocity estimate. However, this method usually requires several wells, so it is often not practical in systems with large depths to groundwater and correspondingly high well installation costs. The fact that a successful natural gradient test was conducted at the test location offered a unique opportunity to compare the flow velocity estimates obtained by the more easily deployed and lower risk methods with the ground-truth natural-gradient method. The groundwater flow velocity estimates from the four methods agreed very well with each other, suggesting that the first three methods all provided reasonably good estimates of groundwater flow velocity at the site. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the different methods, as well as some of the uncertainties associated with them.« less

  1. Evaluation of multiple tracer methods to estimate low groundwater flow velocities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Reimus, Paul W.; Arnold, Bill W.

    Here, four different tracer methods were used to estimate groundwater flow velocity at a multiple-well site in the saturated alluvium south of Yucca Mountain, Nevada: (1) two single-well tracer tests with different rest or “shut-in” periods, (2) a cross-hole tracer test with an extended flow interruption, (3) a comparison of two tracer decay curves in an injection borehole with and without pumping of a downgradient well, and (4) a natural-gradient tracer test. Such tracer methods are potentially very useful for estimating groundwater velocities when hydraulic gradients are flat (and hence uncertain) and also when water level and hydraulic conductivity datamore » are sparse, both of which were the case at this test location. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the first three methods for their ability to provide reasonable estimates of relatively low groundwater flow velocities in such low-hydraulic-gradient environments. The natural-gradient method is generally considered to be the most robust and direct method, so it was used to provide a “ground truth” velocity estimate. However, this method usually requires several wells, so it is often not practical in systems with large depths to groundwater and correspondingly high well installation costs. The fact that a successful natural gradient test was conducted at the test location offered a unique opportunity to compare the flow velocity estimates obtained by the more easily deployed and lower risk methods with the ground-truth natural-gradient method. The groundwater flow velocity estimates from the four methods agreed very well with each other, suggesting that the first three methods all provided reasonably good estimates of groundwater flow velocity at the site. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the different methods, as well as some of the uncertainties associated with them.« less

  2. Evaluation of multiple tracer methods to estimate low groundwater flow velocities.

    PubMed

    Reimus, Paul W; Arnold, Bill W

    2017-04-01

    Four different tracer methods were used to estimate groundwater flow velocity at a multiple-well site in the saturated alluvium south of Yucca Mountain, Nevada: (1) two single-well tracer tests with different rest or "shut-in" periods, (2) a cross-hole tracer test with an extended flow interruption, (3) a comparison of two tracer decay curves in an injection borehole with and without pumping of a downgradient well, and (4) a natural-gradient tracer test. Such tracer methods are potentially very useful for estimating groundwater velocities when hydraulic gradients are flat (and hence uncertain) and also when water level and hydraulic conductivity data are sparse, both of which were the case at this test location. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the first three methods for their ability to provide reasonable estimates of relatively low groundwater flow velocities in such low-hydraulic-gradient environments. The natural-gradient method is generally considered to be the most robust and direct method, so it was used to provide a "ground truth" velocity estimate. However, this method usually requires several wells, so it is often not practical in systems with large depths to groundwater and correspondingly high well installation costs. The fact that a successful natural gradient test was conducted at the test location offered a unique opportunity to compare the flow velocity estimates obtained by the more easily deployed and lower risk methods with the ground-truth natural-gradient method. The groundwater flow velocity estimates from the four methods agreed very well with each other, suggesting that the first three methods all provided reasonably good estimates of groundwater flow velocity at the site. The advantages and disadvantages of the different methods, as well as some of the uncertainties associated with them are discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Shared-environmental contributions to high cognitive ability.

    PubMed

    Kirkpatrick, Robert M; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G

    2009-07-01

    Using a combined sample of adolescent twins, biological siblings, and adoptive siblings, we estimated and compared the differential shared-environmentality for high cognitive ability and the shared-environmental variance for the full range of ability during adolescence. Estimates obtained via multiple methods were in the neighborhood of 0.20, and suggest a modest effect of the shared environment on both high and full-range ability. We then examined the association of ability with three measures of the family environment in a subsample of adoptive siblings: parental occupational status, parental education, and disruptive life events. Only parental education showed significant (albeit modest) association with ability in both the biological and adoptive samples. We discuss these results in terms of the need for cognitive-development research to combine genetically sensitive designs and modern statistical methods with broad, thorough environmental measurement.

  4. Temporal parameter change of human postural control ability during upright swing using recursive least square method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goto, Akifumi; Ishida, Mizuri; Sagawa, Koichi

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to derive quantitative assessment indicators of the human postural control ability. An inverted pendulum is applied to standing human body and is controlled by ankle joint torque according to PD control method in sagittal plane. Torque control parameters (KP: proportional gain, KD: derivative gain) and pole placements of postural control system are estimated with time from inclination angle variation using fixed trace method as recursive least square method. Eight young healthy volunteers are participated in the experiment, in which volunteers are asked to incline forward as far as and as fast as possible 10 times over 10 [s] stationary intervals with their neck joint, hip joint and knee joint fixed, and then return to initial upright posture. The inclination angle is measured by an optical motion capture system. Three conditions are introduced to simulate unstable standing posture; 1) eyes-opened posture for healthy condition, 2) eyes-closed posture for visual impaired and 3) one-legged posture for lower-extremity muscle weakness. The estimated parameters Kp, KD and pole placements are applied to multiple comparison test among all stability conditions. The test results indicate that Kp, KD and real pole reflect effect of lower-extremity muscle weakness and KD also represents effect of visual impairment. It is suggested that the proposed method is valid for quantitative assessment of standing postural control ability.

  5. Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

    DOE PAGES

    Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer; ...

    2017-07-06

    Here, we estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV's ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely - from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city's estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results,more » we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.« less

  6. Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer

    Here, we estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV's ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely - from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city's estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results,more » we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.« less

  7. Inertial sensor-based methods in walking speed estimation: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Yang, Shuozhi; Li, Qingguo

    2012-01-01

    Self-selected walking speed is an important measure of ambulation ability used in various clinical gait experiments. Inertial sensors, i.e., accelerometers and gyroscopes, have been gradually introduced to estimate walking speed. This research area has attracted a lot of attention for the past two decades, and the trend is continuing due to the improvement of performance and decrease in cost of the miniature inertial sensors. With the intention of understanding the state of the art of current development in this area, a systematic review on the exiting methods was done in the following electronic engines/databases: PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, SportDiscus and IEEE Xplore. Sixteen journal articles and papers in proceedings focusing on inertial sensor based walking speed estimation were fully reviewed. The existing methods were categorized by sensor specification, sensor attachment location, experimental design, and walking speed estimation algorithm.

  8. Inertial Sensor-Based Methods in Walking Speed Estimation: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Shuozhi; Li, Qingguo

    2012-01-01

    Self-selected walking speed is an important measure of ambulation ability used in various clinical gait experiments. Inertial sensors, i.e., accelerometers and gyroscopes, have been gradually introduced to estimate walking speed. This research area has attracted a lot of attention for the past two decades, and the trend is continuing due to the improvement of performance and decrease in cost of the miniature inertial sensors. With the intention of understanding the state of the art of current development in this area, a systematic review on the exiting methods was done in the following electronic engines/databases: PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, SportDiscus and IEEE Xplore. Sixteen journal articles and papers in proceedings focusing on inertial sensor based walking speed estimation were fully reviewed. The existing methods were categorized by sensor specification, sensor attachment location, experimental design, and walking speed estimation algorithm. PMID:22778632

  9. Method of estimation of scanning system quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larkin, Eugene; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotova, Natalya; Privalov, Alexander

    2018-04-01

    Estimation of scanner parameters is an important part in developing electronic document management system. This paper suggests considering the scanner as a system that contains two main channels: a photoelectric conversion channel and a channel for measuring spatial coordinates of objects. Although both of channels consist of the same elements, the testing of their parameters should be executed separately. The special structure of the two-dimensional reference signal is offered for this purpose. In this structure, the fields for testing various parameters of the scanner are sp atially separated. Characteristics of the scanner are associated with the loss of information when a document is digitized. The methods to test grayscale transmitting ability, resolution and aberrations level are offered.

  10. Focused ultrasound transducer spatial peak intensity estimation: a comparison of methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Civale, John; Rivens, Ian; Shaw, Adam; ter Haar, Gail

    2018-03-01

    Characterisation of the spatial peak intensity at the focus of high intensity focused ultrasound transducers is difficult because of the risk of damage to hydrophone sensors at the high focal pressures generated. Hill et al (1994 Ultrasound Med. Biol. 20 259-69) provided a simple equation for estimating spatial-peak intensity for solid spherical bowl transducers using measured acoustic power and focal beamwidth. This paper demonstrates theoretically and experimentally that this expression is only strictly valid for spherical bowl transducers without a central (imaging) aperture. A hole in the centre of the transducer results in over-estimation of the peak intensity. Improved strategies for determining focal peak intensity from a measurement of total acoustic power are proposed. Four methods are compared: (i) a solid spherical bowl approximation (after Hill et al 1994 Ultrasound Med. Biol. 20 259-69), (ii) a numerical method derived from theory, (iii) a method using measured sidelobe to focal peak pressure ratio, and (iv) a method for measuring the focal power fraction (FPF) experimentally. Spatial-peak intensities were estimated for 8 transducers at three drive powers levels: low (approximately 1 W), moderate (~10 W) and high (20-70 W). The calculated intensities were compared with those derived from focal peak pressure measurements made using a calibrated hydrophone. The FPF measurement method was found to provide focal peak intensity estimates that agreed most closely (within 15%) with the hydrophone measurements, followed by the pressure ratio method (within 20%). The numerical method was found to consistently over-estimate focal peak intensity (+40% on average), however, for transducers with a central hole it was more accurate than using the solid bowl assumption (+70% over-estimation). In conclusion, the ability to make use of an automated beam plotting system, and a hydrophone with good spatial resolution, greatly facilitates characterisation of the FPF, and

  11. Genome-wide estimates of inbreeding in unrelated individuals and their association with cognitive ability.

    PubMed

    Power, Robert A; Nagoshi, Craig; DeFries, John C; Plomin, Robert

    2014-03-01

    The consequence of reduced cognitive ability from inbreeding has long been investigated, mainly restricted to cousin-cousin marriages. Molecular genetic techniques now allow us to test the relationship between increased ancestral inbreeding and cognitive ability in a population of traditionally unrelated individuals. In a representative UK sample of 2329 individuals, we used genome-wide SNP data to estimate the percentage of the genome covered by runs of homozygous SNPs (ROH). This was tested for association with general cognitive ability, as well as measures of verbal and non-verbal ability. Further, association was tested between these traits and specific ROH. Burden of ROH was not associated with cognitive ability after correction for multiple testing, although burden of ROH was nominally associated with increased non-verbal cognitive ability (P=0.03). Moreover, although no individual ROH was significantly associated with cognitive ability, there was a significant bias towards increased cognitive ability in carriers of ROH (P=0.002). A potential explanation for these results is increased positive assortative mating in spouses with higher cognitive ability, although we found no evidence in support of this hypothesis in a separate sample. Reduced minor allele frequency across the genome was associated with higher cognitive ability, which could contribute to an apparent increase in ROH. This may reflect minor alleles being more likely to be deleterious.

  12. Genome-wide estimates of inbreeding in unrelated individuals and their association with cognitive ability

    PubMed Central

    Power, Robert A; Nagoshi, Craig; DeFries, John C; Donnelly, Peter; Barroso, Ines; Blackwell, Jenefer M; Bramon, Elvira; Brown, Matthew A; Casas, Juan P; Corvin, Aiden; Deloukas, Panos; Duncanson, Audrey; Jankowski, Janusz; Markus, Hugh S; Mathew, Christopher G; Palmer, Colin NA; Plomin, Robert; Rautanen, Anna; Sawcer, Stephen J; Trembath, Richard C; Viswanathan, Ananth C; Wood, Nicholas W; Spencer, Chris C A; Band, Gavin; Bellenguez, Céline; Freeman, Colin; Hellenthal, Garrett; Giannoulatou, Eleni; Pirinen, Matti; Pearson, Richard; Strange, Amy; Su, Zhan; Vukcevic, Damjan; Donnelly, Peter; Langford, Cordelia; Hunt, Sarah E; Edkins, Sarah; Gwilliam, Rhian; Blackburn, Hannah; Bumpstead, Suzannah J; Dronov, Serge; Gillman, Matthew; Gray, Emma; Hammond, Naomi; Jayakumar, Alagurevathi; McCann, Owen T; Liddle, Jennifer; Potter, Simon C; Ravindrarajah, Radhi; Ricketts, Michelle; Waller, Matthew; Weston, Paul; Widaa, Sara; Whittaker, Pamela; Barroso, Ines; Deloukas, Panos; Mathew, Christopher G; Blackwell, Jenefer M; Brown, Matthew A; Corvin, Aiden; Spencer, Chris C A; Plomin, Robert

    2014-01-01

    The consequence of reduced cognitive ability from inbreeding has long been investigated, mainly restricted to cousin–cousin marriages. Molecular genetic techniques now allow us to test the relationship between increased ancestral inbreeding and cognitive ability in a population of traditionally unrelated individuals. In a representative UK sample of 2329 individuals, we used genome-wide SNP data to estimate the percentage of the genome covered by runs of homozygous SNPs (ROH). This was tested for association with general cognitive ability, as well as measures of verbal and non-verbal ability. Further, association was tested between these traits and specific ROH. Burden of ROH was not associated with cognitive ability after correction for multiple testing, although burden of ROH was nominally associated with increased non-verbal cognitive ability (P=0.03). Moreover, although no individual ROH was significantly associated with cognitive ability, there was a significant bias towards increased cognitive ability in carriers of ROH (P=0.002). A potential explanation for these results is increased positive assortative mating in spouses with higher cognitive ability, although we found no evidence in support of this hypothesis in a separate sample. Reduced minor allele frequency across the genome was associated with higher cognitive ability, which could contribute to an apparent increase in ROH. This may reflect minor alleles being more likely to be deleterious. PMID:23860046

  13. Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

    2003-01-01

    proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

  14. Estimating Turbulent Surface Fluxes from Small Unmanned Aircraft: Evaluation of Current Abilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer, G.; Lawrence, D.; Elston, J.; Cassano, J. J.; Mack, J.; Wildmann, N.; Nigro, M. A.; Ivey, M.; Wolfe, D. E.; Muschinski, A.

    2014-12-01

    Heat transfer between the atmosphere and Earth's surface represents a key component to understanding Earth energy balance, making it important in understanding and simulating climate. Arguably, the oceanic air-sea interface and Polar sea-ice-air interface are amongst the most challenging in which to measure these fluxes. This difficulty results partially from challenges associated with infrastructure deployment on these surfaces and partially from an inability to obtain spatially representative values over a potentially inhomogeneous surface. Traditionally sensible (temperature) and latent (moisture) fluxes are estimated using one of several techniques. A preferred method involves eddy-correlation where cross-correlation between anomalies in vertical motion (w) and temperature (T) or moisture (q) is used to estimate heat transfer. High-frequency measurements of these quantities can be derived using tower-mounted instrumentation. Such systems have historically been deployed over land surfaces or on ships and buoys to calculate fluxes at the air-land or air-sea interface, but such deployments are expensive and challenging to execute, resulting in a lack of spatially diverse measurements. A second ("bulk") technique involves the observation of horizontal windspeed, temperature and moisture at a given altitude over an extended time period in order to estimate the surface fluxes. Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) represent a unique platform from which to derive these fluxes. These sUAS can be small ( 1 m), lightweight ( 700 g), low cost ( $2000) and relatively easy to deploy to remote locations and over inhomogeneous surfaces. We will give an overview of the ability of sUAS to provide measurements necessary for estimating surface turbulent fluxes. This discussion is based on flights in the vicinity of the 1000 ft. Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) tower, and over the US Department of Energy facility at Oliktok Point, Alaska. We will present initial comparisons

  15. A cross-sectional study of mathematics achievement, estimation skills, and academic self-perception in students of varying ability.

    PubMed

    Montague, Marjorie; van Garderen, Delinda

    2003-01-01

    This study investigated students' mathematics achievement, estimation ability, use of estimation strategies, and academic self-perception. Students with learning disabilities (LD), average achievers, and intellectually gifted students (N = 135) in fourth, sixth, and eighth grade participated in the study. They were assessed to determine their mathematics achievement, ability to estimate discrete quantities, knowledge and use of estimation strategies, and perception of academic competence. The results indicated that the students with LD performed significantly lower than their peers on the math achievement measures, as expected, but viewed themselves to be as academically competent as the average achievers did. Students with LD and average achievers scored significantly lower than gifted students on all estimation measures, but they differed significantly from one another only on the estimation strategy use measure. Interestingly, even gifted students did not seem to have a well-developed understanding of estimation and, like the other students, did poorly on the first estimation measure. The accuracy of their estimates seemed to improve, however, when students were asked open-ended questions about the strategies they used to arrive at their estimates. Although students with LD did not differ from average achievers in their estimation accuracy, they used significantly fewer effective estimation strategies. Implications for instruction are discussed.

  16. Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments

    PubMed Central

    Eisenhauer, Philipp; Heckman, James J.; Mosso, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic discrete choice models. We construct and estimate a simplified dynamic structural model of education that captures some basic features of educational choices in the United States in the 1980s and early 1990s. We use estimates from our model to simulate a synthetic dataset and assess the ability of ML and SMM to recover the model parameters on this sample. We investigate the performance of alternative tuning parameters for SMM. PMID:26494926

  17. Improving the accuracy of burn-surface estimation.

    PubMed

    Nichter, L S; Williams, J; Bryant, C A; Edlich, R F

    1985-09-01

    A user-friendly computer-assisted method of calculating total body surface area burned (TBSAB) has been developed. This method is more accurate, faster, and subject to less error than conventional methods. For comparison, the ability of 30 physicians to estimate TBSAB was tested. Parameters studied included the effect of prior burn care experience, the influence of burn size, the ability to accurately sketch the size of burns on standard burn charts, and the ability to estimate percent TBSAB from the sketches. Despite the ability for physicians of all levels of training to accurately sketch TBSAB, significant burn size over-estimation (p less than 0.01) and large interrater variability of potential consequence was noted. Direct benefits of a computerized system are many. These include the need for minimal user experience and the ability for wound-trend analysis, permanent record storage, calculation of fluid and caloric requirements, hemodynamic parameters, and the ability to compare meaningfully the different treatment protocols.

  18. Self-estimation of physical ability in stepping over an obstacle is not mediated by visual height perception: a comparison between young and older adults.

    PubMed

    Sakurai, Ryota; Fujiwara, Yoshinori; Ishihara, Masami; Yasunaga, Masashi; Ogawa, Susumu; Suzuki, Hiroyuki; Imanaka, Kuniyasu

    2017-07-01

    Older adults tend to overestimate their step-over ability. However, it is unclear as to whether this is caused by inaccurate self-estimation of physical ability or inaccurate perception of height. We, therefore, measured both visual height perception ability and self-estimation of step-over ability among young and older adults. Forty-seven older and 16 young adults performed a height perception test (HPT) and a step-over test (SOT). Participants visually judged the height of vertical bars from distances of 7 and 1 m away in the HPT, then self-estimated and, subsequently, actually performed a step-over action in the SOT. The results showed no significant difference between young and older adults in visual height perception. In the SOT, young adults tended to underestimate their step-over ability, whereas older adults either overestimated their abilities or underestimated them to a lesser extent than did the young adults. Moreover, visual height perception was not correlated with the self-estimation of step-over ability in both young and older adults. These results suggest that the self-overestimation of step-over ability which appeared in some healthy older adults may not be caused by the nature of visual height perception, but by other factor(s), such as the likely age-related nature of self-estimation of physical ability, per se.

  19. Evaluation of a method estimating real-time individual lysine requirements in two lines of growing-finishing pigs.

    PubMed

    Cloutier, L; Pomar, C; Létourneau Montminy, M P; Bernier, J F; Pomar, J

    2015-04-01

    The implementation of precision feeding in growing-finishing facilities requires accurate estimates of the animals' nutrient requirements. The objectives of the current study was to validate a method for estimating the real-time individual standardized ileal digestible (SID) lysine (Lys) requirements of growing-finishing pigs and the ability of this method to estimate the Lys requirements of pigs with different feed intake and growth patterns. Seventy-five pigs from a terminal cross and 72 pigs from a maternal cross were used in two 28-day experimental phases beginning at 25.8 (±2.5) and 73.3 (±5.2) kg BW, respectively. Treatments were randomly assigned to pigs within each experimental phase according to a 2×4 factorial design in which the two genetic lines and four dietary SID Lys levels (70%, 85%, 100% and 115% of the requirements estimated by the factorial method developed for precision feeding) were the main factors. Individual pigs' Lys requirements were estimated daily using a factorial approach based on their feed intake, BW and weight gain patterns. From 25 to 50 kg BW, this method slightly underestimated the pigs' SID Lys requirements, given that maximum protein deposition and weight gain were achieved at 115% of SID Lys requirements. However, the best gain-to-feed ratio (G : F) was obtained at a level of 85% or more of the estimated Lys requirement. From 70 to 100 kg, the method adequately estimated the pigs' individual requirements, given that maximum performance was achieved at 100% of Lys requirements. Terminal line pigs ate more (P=0.04) during the first experimental phase and tended to eat more (P=0.10) during the second phase than the maternal line pigs but both genetic lines had similar ADG and protein deposition rates during the two phases. The factorial method used in this study to estimate individual daily SID Lys requirements was able to accommodate the small genetic differences in feed intake, and it was concluded that this method can be

  20. Boundary methods for mode estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierson, William E., Jr.; Ulug, Batuhan; Ahalt, Stanley C.

    1999-08-01

    This paper investigates the use of Boundary Methods (BMs), a collection of tools used for distribution analysis, as a method for estimating the number of modes associated with a given data set. Model order information of this type is required by several pattern recognition applications. The BM technique provides a novel approach to this parameter estimation problem and is comparable in terms of both accuracy and computations to other popular mode estimation techniques currently found in the literature and automatic target recognition applications. This paper explains the methodology used in the BM approach to mode estimation. Also, this paper quickly reviews other common mode estimation techniques and describes the empirical investigation used to explore the relationship of the BM technique to other mode estimation techniques. Specifically, the accuracy and computational efficiency of the BM technique are compared quantitatively to the a mixture of Gaussian (MOG) approach and a k-means approach to model order estimation. The stopping criteria of the MOG and k-means techniques is the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC).

  1. Brief Report: Use of DQ for Estimating Cognitive Ability in Young Children with Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Delmolino, Lara M.

    2006-01-01

    The utility of Developmental Quotients (DQ) from the Psychoeducational Profile--Revised (PEP-R) to estimate cognitive ability in young children with autism was assessed. DQ scores were compared to scores from the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scales--Fourth Edition (SB-FE) for 27 preschool students with autism. Overall and domain DQ's on the PEP-R…

  2. Evaluation of non-destructive methods for estimating biomass in marshes of the upper Texas, USA coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitbeck, M.; Grace, J.B.

    2006-01-01

    The estimation of aboveground biomass is important in the management of natural resources. Direct measurements by clipping, drying, and weighing of herbaceous vegetation are time-consuming and costly. Therefore, non-destructive methods for efficiently and accurately estimating biomass are of interest. We compared two non-destructive methods, visual obstruction and light penetration, for estimating aboveground biomass in marshes of the upper Texas, USA coast. Visual obstruction was estimated using the Robel pole method, which primarily measures the density and height of the canopy. Light penetration through the canopy was measured using a Decagon light wand, with readings taken above the vegetation and at the ground surface. Clip plots were also taken to provide direct estimates of total aboveground biomass. Regression relationships between estimated and clipped biomass were significant using both methods. However, the light penetration method was much more strongly correlated with clipped biomass under these conditions (R2 value 0.65 compared to 0.35 for the visual obstruction approach). The primary difference between the two methods in this situation was the ability of the light-penetration method to account for variations in plant litter. These results indicate that light-penetration measurements may be better for estimating biomass in marshes when plant litter is an important component. We advise that, in all cases, investigators should calibrate their methods against clip plots to evaluate applicability to their situation. ?? 2006, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  3. Stroke survivors over-estimate their medication self-administration (MSA) ability, predicting memory loss.

    PubMed

    Barrett, A M; Galletta, Elizabeth E; Zhang, Jun; Masmela, Jenny R; Adler, Uri S

    2014-01-01

    Medication self-administration (MSA) may be cognitively challenging after stroke, but guidelines are currently lacking for identifying high-functioning stroke survivors who may have difficulty with this task. Complicating this matter, stroke survivors may not be aware of their cognitive problems (cognitive anosognosia) and may over-estimate their MSA competence. The authors wished to evaluate medication self-administration and MSA self-awareness in 24 consecutive acute stroke survivors undergoing inpatient rehabilitation, to determine if they would over-estimate their medication self-administration and if this predicted memory disorder. Stroke survivors were tested on the Hopkins Medication Schedule and also their memory, naming mood and dexterity were evaluated, comparing their performance to 17 matched controls. The anosognosia ratio indicated MSA over-estimation in stroke survivors compared with controls--no other over-estimation errors were noted relative to controls. A strong correlation was observed between over-estimation of MSA ability and verbal memory deficit, suggesting that formally assessing MSA and MSA self-awareness may help detect cognitive deficits. Assessing medication self-administration and MSA self-awareness may be useful in rehabilitation and successful community-return after stroke.

  4. Estimating verbal fluency and naming ability from the test of premorbid functioning and demographic variables: Regression equations derived from a regional UK sample.

    PubMed

    Jenkinson, Toni-Marie; Muncer, Steven; Wheeler, Miranda; Brechin, Don; Evans, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    Neuropsychological assessment requires accurate estimation of an individual's premorbid cognitive abilities. Oral word reading tests, such as the test of premorbid functioning (TOPF), and demographic variables, such as age, sex, and level of education, provide a reasonable indication of premorbid intelligence, but their ability to predict other related cognitive abilities is less well understood. This study aimed to develop regression equations, based on the TOPF and demographic variables, to predict scores on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. A sample of 119 healthy adults provided demographic information and were tested using the TOPF, FAS, animal naming test (ANT), and graded naming test (GNT). Multiple regression analyses, using the TOPF and demographics as predictor variables, were used to estimate verbal fluency and naming ability test scores. Change scores and cases of significant impairment were calculated for two clinical samples with diagnosed neurological conditions (TBI and meningioma) using the method in Knight, McMahon, Green, and Skeaff (). Demographic variables provided a significant contribution to the prediction of all verbal fluency and naming ability test scores; however, adding TOPF score to the equation considerably improved prediction beyond that afforded by demographic variables alone. The percentage of variance accounted for by demographic variables and/or TOPF score varied from 19 per cent (FAS), 28 per cent (ANT), and 41 per cent (GNT). Change scores revealed significant differences in performance in the clinical groups, particularity the TBI group. Demographic variables, particularly education level, and scores on the TOPF should be taken into consideration when interpreting performance on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Evaluation of Fuzzy-Logic Framework for Spatial Statistics Preserving Methods for Estimation of Missing Precipitation Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El Sharif, H.; Teegavarapu, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Spatial interpolation methods used for estimation of missing precipitation data at a site seldom check for their ability to preserve site and regional statistics. Such statistics are primarily defined by spatial correlations and other site-to-site statistics in a region. Preservation of site and regional statistics represents a means of assessing the validity of missing precipitation estimates at a site. This study evaluates the efficacy of a fuzzy-logic methodology for infilling missing historical daily precipitation data in preserving site and regional statistics. Rain gauge sites in the state of Kentucky, USA, are used as a case study for evaluation of this newly proposed method in comparison to traditional data infilling techniques. Several error and performance measures will be used to evaluate the methods and trade-offs in accuracy of estimation and preservation of site and regional statistics.

  6. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods.

    PubMed

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation.

  7. Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

  8. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods

    PubMed Central

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. Objectives: The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. Conclusion: The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation. PMID:25709325

  9. Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.; Chaikovsky, Anatoli P.; Kucsera, Tom L.; Metelskaya, Natalia S.

    2011-01-01

    Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h

  10. Estimation Methods for One-Parameter Testlet Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jiao, Hong; Wang, Shudong; He, Wei

    2013-01-01

    This study demonstrated the equivalence between the Rasch testlet model and the three-level one-parameter testlet model and explored the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for model parameter estimation in WINBUGS. The estimation accuracy from the MCMC method was compared with those from the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)…

  11. Seismic Methods of Identifying Explosions and Estimating Their Yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.; Pasyanos, M.; Pyle, M. L.; Myers, S. C.; Mellors, R. J.; Pitarka, A.; Rodgers, A. J.; Hauk, T. F.

    2014-12-01

    Seismology plays a key national security role in detecting, locating, identifying and determining the yield of explosions from a variety of causes, including accidents, terrorist attacks and nuclear testing treaty violations (e.g. Koper et al., 2003, 1999; Walter et al. 1995). A collection of mainly empirical forensic techniques has been successfully developed over many years to obtain source information on explosions from their seismic signatures (e.g. Bowers and Selby, 2009). However a lesson from the three DPRK declared nuclear explosions since 2006, is that our historic collection of data may not be representative of future nuclear test signatures (e.g. Selby et al., 2012). To have confidence in identifying future explosions amongst the background of other seismic signals, and accurately estimate their yield, we need to put our empirical methods on a firmer physical footing. Goals of current research are to improve our physical understanding of the mechanisms of explosion generation of S- and surface-waves, and to advance our ability to numerically model and predict them. As part of that process we are re-examining regional seismic data from a variety of nuclear test sites including the DPRK and the former Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS)). Newer relative location and amplitude techniques can be employed to better quantify differences between explosions and used to understand those differences in term of depth, media and other properties. We are also making use of the Source Physics Experiments (SPE) at NNSS. The SPE chemical explosions are explicitly designed to improve our understanding of emplacement and source material effects on the generation of shear and surface waves (e.g. Snelson et al., 2013). Finally we are also exploring the value of combining seismic information with other technologies including acoustic and InSAR techniques to better understand the source characteristics. Our goal is to improve our explosion models

  12. Patient-Specific Pharmacokinetic Parameter Estimation on Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI of Prostate: Preliminary Evaluation of a Novel AIF-Free Estimation Method

    PubMed Central

    Ginsburg, Shoshana B.; Taimen, Pekka; Merisaari, Harri; Vainio, Paula; Boström, Peter J.; Aronen, Hannu J.; Jambor, Ivan; Madabhushi, Anant

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To develop and evaluate a prostate-based method (PBM) for estimating pharmacokinetic parameters on dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by leveraging inherent differences in pharmacokinetic characteristics between the peripheral zone (PZ) and transition zone (TZ). Materials and Methods This retrospective study, approved by the Institutional Review Board, included 40 patients who underwent a multiparametric 3T MRI examination and subsequent radical prostatectomy. A two-step PBM for estimating pharmacokinetic parameters exploited the inherent differences in pharmacokinetic characteristics associated with the TZ and PZ. First, the reference region model was implemented to estimate ratios of Ktrans between normal TZ and PZ. Subsequently, the reference region model was leveraged again to estimate values for Ktrans and ve for every prostate voxel. The parameters of PBM were compared with those estimated using an arterial input function (AIF) derived from the femoral arteries. The ability of the parameters to differentiate prostate cancer (PCa) from benign tissue was evaluated on a voxel and lesion level. Additionally, the effect of temporal downsampling of the DCE MRI data was assessed. Results Significant differences (P < 0.05) in PBM Ktrans between PCa lesions and benign tissue were found in 26/27 patients with TZ lesions and in 33/38 patients with PZ lesions; significant differences in AIF-based Ktrans occurred in 26/27 and 30/38 patients, respectively. The 75th and 100th percentiles of Ktrans and ve estimated using PBM positively correlated with lesion size (P < 0.05). Conclusion Pharmacokinetic parameters estimated via PBM outperformed AIF-based parameters in PCa detection. PMID:27285161

  13. Development of Methods of Evaluating Abilities to Make Plans in New Group Work

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiriyama, Satoshi

    The ability to evaluate something vague which is, for example, originality can be regarded as one of important elements which constitute the ability to make plans. The author has made use of cooperative activities in which every member undertakes each stage of a plan-do-check-cycle in order to develop training methods and evaluating methods of evaluating ability. The members of a CHECK team evaluated activities of a PLAN team and a DO team. The author tried to grasp the abilities of the members of a CHECK team by analyzing results of the evaluation. In addition, the author have made some teachers evaluate a sample in order to study the accuracy of criteria and extracted some challenges.

  14. Methods for estimating dispersal probabilities and related parameters using marked animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennetts, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Pradel, R.; Lebreton, J.D.; Kitchens, W.M.; Clobert, Jean; Danchin, Etienne; Dhondt, Andre A.; Nichols, James D.

    2001-01-01

    Deriving valid inferences about the causes and consequences of dispersal from empirical studies depends largely on our ability reliably to estimate parameters associated with dispersal. Here, we present a review of the methods available for estimating dispersal and related parameters using marked individuals. We emphasize methods that place dispersal in a probabilistic framework. In this context, we define a dispersal event as a movement of a specified distance or from one predefined patch to another, the magnitude of the distance or the definition of a `patch? depending on the ecological or evolutionary question(s) being addressed. We have organized the chapter based on four general classes of data for animals that are captured, marked, and released alive: (1) recovery data, in which animals are recovered dead at a subsequent time, (2) recapture/resighting data, in which animals are either recaptured or resighted alive on subsequent sampling occasions, (3) known-status data, in which marked animals are reobserved alive or dead at specified times with probability 1.0, and (4) combined data, in which data are of more than one type (e.g., live recapture and ring recovery). For each data type, we discuss the data required, the estimation techniques, and the types of questions that might be addressed from studies conducted at single and multiple sites.

  15. Wavelength-dependent ability of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence to estimate GPP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated that solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can offer a new way for directly estimating the terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). In this paper, the wavelength-dependent ability of SIF to estimate GPP was investigated using both simulations by SCOPE model (Soil Canopy Observation, Photochemistry and Energy fluxes) and observations at the canopy level. Firstly, the response of the remotely sensed SIF at the canopy level to the absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR ) was investigated. Both the simulations and observations confirm a linear relationship between canopy SIF and APAR, while it is species-specific and affected by biochemical components and canopy structure. The ratio of SIF to APAR varies greatly for different vegetation types, which is significant larger for canopy with horizontal structure than it with vertical structure. At red band, the ratio also decreases noticeable when chlorophyll content increases. Then, the performance of SIF to estimate GPP was investigated using diurnal observations of winter wheat at different grow stages. The results showed that the diurnal GPP could be robustly estimated from the SIF spectra for winter wheat at each growth stage, while the correlation weakened greatly at red band if all the observations made at different growth stages or all simulations with different LAI values were pooled together - a situation which did not occur at the far-red band. Finally, the SIF-based GPP models derived from the 2016 observations on winter wheat were well validated using the dataset from 2015, which give better performance for SIF at far-red band than that at red band. Therefore, it is very important to correct for reabsorption and scattering of the SIF radiative transfer from the photosystem to the canopy level before the remotely sensed SIF is linked to the GPP, especially at red band.

  16. Effects of Calibration Sample Size and Item Bank Size on Ability Estimation in Computerized Adaptive Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sahin, Alper; Weiss, David J.

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the effects of calibration sample size and item bank size on examinee ability estimation in computerized adaptive testing (CAT). For this purpose, a 500-item bank pre-calibrated using the three-parameter logistic model with 10,000 examinees was simulated. Calibration samples of varying sizes (150, 250, 350, 500,…

  17. Differences in Movement Pattern and Detectability between Males and Females Influence How Common Sampling Methods Estimate Sex Ratio.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, João Fabrício Mota; Coelho, Marco Túlio Pacheco

    2016-01-01

    Sampling the biodiversity is an essential step for conservation, and understanding the efficiency of sampling methods allows us to estimate the quality of our biodiversity data. Sex ratio is an important population characteristic, but until now, no study has evaluated how efficient are the sampling methods commonly used in biodiversity surveys in estimating the sex ratio of populations. We used a virtual ecologist approach to investigate whether active and passive capture methods are able to accurately sample a population's sex ratio and whether differences in movement pattern and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex-ratios when using these methods. Our simulation allowed the recognition of individuals, similar to mark-recapture studies. We found that differences in both movement patterns and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex ratios. However, increasing the sampling effort or the number of sampling days improves the ability of passive or active capture methods to properly sample sex ratio. Thus, prior knowledge regarding movement patterns and detectability for species is important information to guide field studies aiming to understand sex ratio related patterns.

  18. Differences in Movement Pattern and Detectability between Males and Females Influence How Common Sampling Methods Estimate Sex Ratio

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, João Fabrício Mota; Coelho, Marco Túlio Pacheco

    2016-01-01

    Sampling the biodiversity is an essential step for conservation, and understanding the efficiency of sampling methods allows us to estimate the quality of our biodiversity data. Sex ratio is an important population characteristic, but until now, no study has evaluated how efficient are the sampling methods commonly used in biodiversity surveys in estimating the sex ratio of populations. We used a virtual ecologist approach to investigate whether active and passive capture methods are able to accurately sample a population’s sex ratio and whether differences in movement pattern and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex-ratios when using these methods. Our simulation allowed the recognition of individuals, similar to mark-recapture studies. We found that differences in both movement patterns and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex ratios. However, increasing the sampling effort or the number of sampling days improves the ability of passive or active capture methods to properly sample sex ratio. Thus, prior knowledge regarding movement patterns and detectability for species is important information to guide field studies aiming to understand sex ratio related patterns. PMID:27441554

  19. Methods for Cloud Cover Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glackin, D. L.; Huning, J. R.; Smith, J. H.; Logan, T. L.

    1984-01-01

    Several methods for cloud cover estimation are described relevant to assessing the performance of a ground-based network of solar observatories. The methods rely on ground and satellite data sources and provide meteorological or climatological information. One means of acquiring long-term observations of solar oscillations is the establishment of a ground-based network of solar observatories. Criteria for station site selection are: gross cloudiness, accurate transparency information, and seeing. Alternative methods for computing this duty cycle are discussed. The cycle, or alternatively a time history of solar visibility from the network, can then be input to a model to determine the effect of duty cycle on derived solar seismology parameters. Cloudiness from space is studied to examine various means by which the duty cycle might be computed. Cloudiness, and to some extent transparency, can potentially be estimated from satellite data.

  20. New Analysis Methods Estimate a Critical Property of Ethanol Fuel Blends

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    2016-03-01

    To date there have been no adequate methods for measuring the heat of vaporization of complex mixtures. This research developed two separate methods for measuring this key property of ethanol and gasoline blends, including the ability to estimate heat of vaporization at multiple temperatures. Methods for determining heat of vaporization of gasoline-ethanol blends by calculation from a compositional analysis and by direct calorimetric measurement were developed. Direct measurement produced values for pure compounds in good agreement with literature. A range of hydrocarbon gasolines were shown to have heat of vaporization of 325 kJ/kg to 375 kJ/kg. The effect of addingmore » ethanol at 10 vol percent to 50 vol percent was significantly larger than the variation between hydrocarbon gasolines (E50 blends at 650 kJ/kg to 700 kJ/kg). The development of these new and accurate methods allows researchers to begin to both quantify the effect of fuel evaporative cooling on knock resistance, and exploit this effect for combustion of hydrocarbon-ethanol fuel blends in high-efficiency SI engines.« less

  1. A Novel Residual Frequency Estimation Method for GNSS Receivers.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Tu Thi-Thanh; La, Vinh The; Ta, Tung Hai

    2018-01-04

    In Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, residual frequency estimation methods are traditionally applied in the synchronization block to reduce the transient time from acquisition to tracking, or they are used within the frequency estimator to improve its accuracy in open-loop architectures. There are several disadvantages in the current estimation methods, including sensitivity to noise and wide search space size. This paper proposes a new residual frequency estimation method depending on differential processing. Although the complexity of the proposed method is higher than the one of traditional methods, it can lead to more accurate estimates, without increasing the size of the search space.

  2. Coalescent methods for estimating phylogenetic trees.

    PubMed

    Liu, Liang; Yu, Lili; Kubatko, Laura; Pearl, Dennis K; Edwards, Scott V

    2009-10-01

    We review recent models to estimate phylogenetic trees under the multispecies coalescent. Although the distinction between gene trees and species trees has come to the fore of phylogenetics, only recently have methods been developed that explicitly estimate species trees. Of the several factors that can cause gene tree heterogeneity and discordance with the species tree, deep coalescence due to random genetic drift in branches of the species tree has been modeled most thoroughly. Bayesian approaches to estimating species trees utilizes two likelihood functions, one of which has been widely used in traditional phylogenetics and involves the model of nucleotide substitution, and the second of which is less familiar to phylogeneticists and involves the probability distribution of gene trees given a species tree. Other recent parametric and nonparametric methods for estimating species trees involve parsimony criteria, summary statistics, supertree and consensus methods. Species tree approaches are an appropriate goal for systematics, appear to work well in some cases where concatenation can be misleading, and suggest that sampling many independent loci will be paramount. Such methods can also be challenging to implement because of the complexity of the models and computational time. In addition, further elaboration of the simplest of coalescent models will be required to incorporate commonly known issues such as deviation from the molecular clock, gene flow and other genetic forces.

  3. Estimation method for serial dilution experiments.

    PubMed

    Ben-David, Avishai; Davidson, Charles E

    2014-12-01

    Titration of microorganisms in infectious or environmental samples is a corner stone of quantitative microbiology. A simple method is presented to estimate the microbial counts obtained with the serial dilution technique for microorganisms that can grow on bacteriological media and develop into a colony. The number (concentration) of viable microbial organisms is estimated from a single dilution plate (assay) without a need for replicate plates. Our method selects the best agar plate with which to estimate the microbial counts, and takes into account the colony size and plate area that both contribute to the likelihood of miscounting the number of colonies on a plate. The estimate of the optimal count given by our method can be used to narrow the search for the best (optimal) dilution plate and saves time. The required inputs are the plate size, the microbial colony size, and the serial dilution factors. The proposed approach shows relative accuracy well within ±0.1log10 from data produced by computer simulations. The method maintains this accuracy even in the presence of dilution errors of up to 10% (for both the aliquot and diluent volumes), microbial counts between 10(4) and 10(12) colony-forming units, dilution ratios from 2 to 100, and plate size to colony size ratios between 6.25 to 200. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Estimating parameter of Rayleigh distribution by using Maximum Likelihood method and Bayes method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ardianti, Fitri; Sutarman

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we use Maximum Likelihood estimation and Bayes method under some risk function to estimate parameter of Rayleigh distribution to know the best method. The prior knowledge which used in Bayes method is Jeffrey’s non-informative prior. Maximum likelihood estimation and Bayes method under precautionary loss function, entropy loss function, loss function-L 1 will be compared. We compare these methods by bias and MSE value using R program. After that, the result will be displayed in tables to facilitate the comparisons.

  5. Empirical methods in the evaluation of estimators

    Treesearch

    Gerald S. Walton; C.J. DeMars; C.J. DeMars

    1973-01-01

    The authors discuss the problem of selecting estimators of density and survival by making use of data on a forest-defoliating larva, the spruce budworm. Varlous estimators are compared. The results show that, among the estimators considered, ratio-type estimators are superior in terms of bias and variance. The methods used in making comparisons, particularly simulation...

  6. [Theory, method and application of method R on estimation of (co)variance components].

    PubMed

    Liu, Wen-Zhong

    2004-07-01

    Theory, method and application of Method R on estimation of (co)variance components were reviewed in order to make the method be reasonably used. Estimation requires R values,which are regressions of predicted random effects that are calculated using complete dataset on predicted random effects that are calculated using random subsets of the same data. By using multivariate iteration algorithm based on a transformation matrix,and combining with the preconditioned conjugate gradient to solve the mixed model equations, the computation efficiency of Method R is much improved. Method R is computationally inexpensive,and the sampling errors and approximate credible intervals of estimates can be obtained. Disadvantages of Method R include a larger sampling variance than other methods for the same data,and biased estimates in small datasets. As an alternative method, Method R can be used in larger datasets. It is necessary to study its theoretical properties and broaden its application range further.

  7. The Effect of Schooling and Ability on Achievement Test Scores. NBER Working Paper Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, Karsten; Heckman, James J.; Mullen, Kathleen J.

    This study developed two methods for estimating the effect of schooling on achievement test scores that control for the endogeneity of schooling by postulating that both schooling and test scores are generated by a common unobserved latent ability. The methods were applied to data on schooling and test scores. Estimates from the two methods are in…

  8. A method to accurately estimate the muscular torques of human wearing exoskeletons by torque sensors.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Beomsoo; Jeon, Doyoung

    2015-04-09

    In exoskeletal robots, the quantification of the user's muscular effort is important to recognize the user's motion intentions and evaluate motor abilities. In this paper, we attempt to estimate users' muscular efforts accurately using joint torque sensor which contains the measurements of dynamic effect of human body such as the inertial, Coriolis, and gravitational torques as well as torque by active muscular effort. It is important to extract the dynamic effects of the user's limb accurately from the measured torque. The user's limb dynamics are formulated and a convenient method of identifying user-specific parameters is suggested for estimating the user's muscular torque in robotic exoskeletons. Experiments were carried out on a wheelchair-integrated lower limb exoskeleton, EXOwheel, which was equipped with torque sensors in the hip and knee joints. The proposed methods were evaluated by 10 healthy participants during body weight-supported gait training. The experimental results show that the torque sensors are to estimate the muscular torque accurately in cases of relaxed and activated muscle conditions.

  9. A Method to Accurately Estimate the Muscular Torques of Human Wearing Exoskeletons by Torque Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Hwang, Beomsoo; Jeon, Doyoung

    2015-01-01

    In exoskeletal robots, the quantification of the user’s muscular effort is important to recognize the user’s motion intentions and evaluate motor abilities. In this paper, we attempt to estimate users’ muscular efforts accurately using joint torque sensor which contains the measurements of dynamic effect of human body such as the inertial, Coriolis, and gravitational torques as well as torque by active muscular effort. It is important to extract the dynamic effects of the user’s limb accurately from the measured torque. The user’s limb dynamics are formulated and a convenient method of identifying user-specific parameters is suggested for estimating the user’s muscular torque in robotic exoskeletons. Experiments were carried out on a wheelchair-integrated lower limb exoskeleton, EXOwheel, which was equipped with torque sensors in the hip and knee joints. The proposed methods were evaluated by 10 healthy participants during body weight-supported gait training. The experimental results show that the torque sensors are to estimate the muscular torque accurately in cases of relaxed and activated muscle conditions. PMID:25860074

  10. Estimation of dietary nutritional content using an online system with ability to assess the dieticians' accuracy.

    PubMed

    Aoki, Takeshi; Nakai, Shigeru; Yamauchi, Kazunobu

    2006-01-01

    We developed an online system for estimating dietary nutritional content. It also had the function of assessing the accuracy of the participating dieticians and ranking their performance. People who wished to have their meal estimated (i.e. clients) submitted images of their meal taken by digital camera to the server via the Internet, and dieticians estimated the nutritional content (i.e. calorie and protein content). The system assessed the accuracy of the dieticians and if it was satisfactory, the results were sent to the client. Clients received details of the calorie and protein content of their meals within 24 h by email. A total of 93 dieticians (71 students and 22 licensed practitioners) used the system. A two-way analysis of variance showed that there was a significant variation (P=0.004) among dieticians in their ability to estimate both calorie and protein content. There was a significant difference in values of both calorie (P=0.02) and protein (P<0.001) estimation accuracy between student dieticians and licensed dieticians. The estimation accuracy of the licensed nutritionists was 85% (SD 10) for calorie content and 78% (SD 17) for protein content.

  11. Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries

    PubMed Central

    Cunningham, Marc; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

    2015-01-01

    -based model for condoms, models were able to estimate public-sector prevalence rates for each short-acting method to within 2 percentage points in at least 85% of countries. Conclusions: Public-sector contraceptive logistics data are strongly correlated with public-sector prevalence rates for short-acting methods, demonstrating the quality of current logistics data and their ability to provide relatively accurate prevalence estimates. The models provide a starting point for generating interim estimates of contraceptive use when timely survey data are unavailable. All models except the condoms CYP model performed well; the regression models were most accurate but the CYP model offers the simplest calculation method. Future work extending the research to other modern methods, relating subnational logistics data with prevalence rates, and tracking that relationship over time is needed. PMID:26374805

  12. Variance Difference between Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method and Expected A Posteriori Estimation Method Viewed from Number of Test Items

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahmud, Jumailiyah; Sutikno, Muzayanah; Naga, Dali S.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to determine variance difference between maximum likelihood and expected A posteriori estimation methods viewed from number of test items of aptitude test. The variance presents an accuracy generated by both maximum likelihood and Bayes estimation methods. The test consists of three subtests, each with 40 multiple-choice…

  13. Work ability assessment in a worker population: comparison and determinants of Work Ability Index and Work Ability score.

    PubMed

    El Fassi, Mehdi; Bocquet, Valery; Majery, Nicole; Lair, Marie Lise; Couffignal, Sophie; Mairiaux, Philippe

    2013-04-08

    Public authorities in European countries are paying increasing attention to the promotion of work ability throughout working life and the best method to monitor work ability in populations of workers is becoming a significant question. The present study aims to compare the assessment of work ability based on the use of the Work Ability Index (WAI), a 7-item questionnaire, with another one based on the use of WAI's first item, which consists in the worker's self-assessment of his/her current work ability level as opposed to his/her lifetime best, this single question being termed "Work Ability score" (WAS). Using a database created by an occupational health service, the study intends to answer the following questions: could the assessment of work ability be based on a single-item measure and which are the variables significantly associated with self-reported work ability among those systematically recorded by the occupational physician during health examinations? A logistic regression model was used in order to estimate the probability of observing "poor" or "moderate" WAI levels depending on age, gender, body mass index, smoking status, position held, firm size and diseases reported by the worker in a population of workers aged 40 to 65 and examined between January 2006 and June 2010 (n=12389). The convergent validity between WAS and WAI was statistically significant (rs=0.63). In the multivariable model, age (p<0.001), reported diseases (OR=1.13, 95%CI [1.11-1.15]) and holding a position mostly characterized by physical activity (OR=1.67, 95%CI [1.49-1.87]) increased the probability of reporting moderate or poor work ability. A work position characterized by the predominance of mental activity (OR=0.71, 95%CI [0.61-0.84]) had a favourable impact on work ability. These relations were observed regardless of the work ability measurement tool used. The convergent validity and the similarity in results between WAI and WAS observed in a large population of employed

  14. Estimating Tree Height-Diameter Models with the Bayesian Method

    PubMed Central

    Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

    2014-01-01

    Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the “best” model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2. PMID:24711733

  15. Estimating tree height-diameter models with the Bayesian method.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

    2014-01-01

    Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the "best" model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2.

  16. The Flight Optimization System Weights Estimation Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wells, Douglas P.; Horvath, Bryce L.; McCullers, Linwood A.

    2017-01-01

    FLOPS has been the primary aircraft synthesis software used by the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center. It was created for rapid conceptual aircraft design and advanced technology impact assessments. FLOPS is a single computer program that includes weights estimation, aerodynamics estimation, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data scaling and interpolation, detailed mission performance analysis, takeoff and landing performance analysis, noise footprint estimation, and cost analysis. It is well known as a baseline and common denominator for aircraft design studies. FLOPS is capable of calibrating a model to known aircraft data, making it useful for new aircraft and modifications to existing aircraft. The weight estimation method in FLOPS is known to be of high fidelity for conventional tube with wing aircraft and a substantial amount of effort went into its development. This report serves as a comprehensive documentation of the FLOPS weight estimation method. The development process is presented with the weight estimation process.

  17. On the Methods for Estimating the Corneoscleral Limbus.

    PubMed

    Jesus, Danilo A; Iskander, D Robert

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to develop computational methods for estimating limbus position based on the measurements of three-dimensional (3-D) corneoscleral topography and ascertain whether corneoscleral limbus routinely estimated from the frontal image corresponds to that derived from topographical information. Two new computational methods for estimating the limbus position are proposed: One based on approximating the raw anterior eye height data by series of Zernike polynomials and one that combines the 3-D corneoscleral topography with the frontal grayscale image acquired with the digital camera in-built in the profilometer. The proposed methods are contrasted against a previously described image-only-based procedure and to a technique of manual image annotation. The estimates of corneoscleral limbus radius were characterized with a high precision. The group average (mean ± standard deviation) of the maximum difference between estimates derived from all considered methods was 0.27 ± 0.14 mm and reached up to 0.55 mm. The four estimating methods lead to statistically significant differences (nonparametric ANOVA (the Analysis of Variance) test, p 0.05). Precise topographical limbus demarcation is possible either from the frontal digital images of the eye or from the 3-D topographical information of corneoscleral region. However, the results demonstrated that the corneoscleral limbus estimated from the anterior eye topography does not always correspond to that obtained through image-only based techniques. The experimental findings have shown that 3-D topography of anterior eye, in the absence of a gold standard, has the potential to become a new computational methodology for estimating the corneoscleral limbus.

  18. Child mortality estimation 2013: an overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

    PubMed

    Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

  19. Comparing four methods to estimate usual intake distributions.

    PubMed

    Souverein, O W; Dekkers, A L; Geelen, A; Haubrock, J; de Vries, J H; Ocké, M C; Harttig, U; Boeing, H; van 't Veer, P

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this paper was to compare methods to estimate usual intake distributions of nutrients and foods. As 'true' usual intake distributions are not known in practice, the comparison was carried out through a simulation study, as well as empirically, by application to data from the European Food Consumption Validation (EFCOVAL) Study in which two 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDRs) and food frequency data were collected. The methods being compared were the Iowa State University Method (ISU), National Cancer Institute Method (NCI), Multiple Source Method (MSM) and Statistical Program for Age-adjusted Dietary Assessment (SPADE). Simulation data were constructed with varying numbers of subjects (n), different values for the Box-Cox transformation parameter (λ(BC)) and different values for the ratio of the within- and between-person variance (r(var)). All data were analyzed with the four different methods and the estimated usual mean intake and selected percentiles were obtained. Moreover, the 2-day within-person mean was estimated as an additional 'method'. These five methods were compared in terms of the mean bias, which was calculated as the mean of the differences between the estimated value and the known true value. The application of data from the EFCOVAL Project included calculations of nutrients (that is, protein, potassium, protein density) and foods (that is, vegetables, fruit and fish). Overall, the mean bias of the ISU, NCI, MSM and SPADE Methods was small. However, for all methods, the mean bias and the variation of the bias increased with smaller sample size, higher variance ratios and with more pronounced departures from normality. Serious mean bias (especially in the 95th percentile) was seen using the NCI Method when r(var) = 9, λ(BC) = 0 and n = 1000. The ISU Method and MSM showed a somewhat higher s.d. of the bias compared with NCI and SPADE Methods, indicating a larger method uncertainty. Furthermore, whereas the ISU, NCI and SPADE Methods produced

  20. Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Marc; Bock, Ariella; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

    2015-09-01

    were able to estimate public-sector prevalence rates for each short-acting method to within 2 percentage points in at least 85% of countries. Public-sector contraceptive logistics data are strongly correlated with public-sector prevalence rates for short-acting methods, demonstrating the quality of current logistics data and their ability to provide relatively accurate prevalence estimates. The models provide a starting point for generating interim estimates of contraceptive use when timely survey data are unavailable. All models except the condoms CYP model performed well; the regression models were most accurate but the CYP model offers the simplest calculation method. Future work extending the research to other modern methods, relating subnational logistics data with prevalence rates, and tracking that relationship over time is needed. © Cunningham et al.

  1. Comparison of haemoglobin estimates using direct & indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods.

    PubMed

    Bansal, Priyanka Gupta; Toteja, Gurudayal Singh; Bhatia, Neena; Gupta, Sanjeev; Kaur, Manpreet; Adhikari, Tulsi; Garg, Ashok Kumar

    2016-10-01

    Estimation of haemoglobin is the most widely used method to assess anaemia. Although direct cyanmethaemoglobin method is the recommended method for estimation of haemoglobin, but it may not be feasible under field conditions. Hence, the present study was undertaken to compare indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method against the conventional direct method for haemoglobin estimation. Haemoglobin levels were estimated for 888 adolescent girls aged 11-18 yr residing in an urban slum in Delhi by both direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods, and the results were compared. The mean haemoglobin levels for 888 whole blood samples estimated by direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method were 116.1 ± 12.7 and 110.5 ± 12.5 g/l, respectively, with a mean difference of 5.67 g/l (95% confidence interval: 5.45 to 5.90, P<0.001); which is equivalent to 0.567 g%. The prevalence of anaemia was reported as 59.6 and 78.2 per cent by direct and indirect methods, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method were 99.2 and 56.4 per cent, respectively. Using regression analysis, prediction equation was developed for indirect haemoglobin values. The present findings revealed that indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method overestimated the prevalence of anaemia as compared to the direct method. However, if a correction factor is applied, indirect method could be successfully used for estimating true haemoglobin level. More studies should be undertaken to establish agreement and correction factor between direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods.

  2. An evaluation of methods for estimating decadal stream loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Casey J.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Holtschlag, David J.; Preston, Stephen D.; Crawford, Charles G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    2016-11-01

    Effective management of water resources requires accurate information on the mass, or load of water-quality constituents transported from upstream watersheds to downstream receiving waters. Despite this need, no single method has been shown to consistently provide accurate load estimates among different water-quality constituents, sampling sites, and sampling regimes. We evaluate the accuracy of several load estimation methods across a broad range of sampling and environmental conditions. This analysis uses random sub-samples drawn from temporally-dense data sets of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate, and suspended-sediment concentration, and includes measurements of specific conductance which was used as a surrogate for dissolved solids concentration. Methods considered include linear interpolation and ratio estimators, regression-based methods historically employed by the U.S. Geological Survey, and newer flexible techniques including Weighted Regressions on Time, Season, and Discharge (WRTDS) and a generalized non-linear additive model. No single method is identified to have the greatest accuracy across all constituents, sites, and sampling scenarios. Most methods provide accurate estimates of specific conductance (used as a surrogate for total dissolved solids or specific major ions) and total nitrogen - lower accuracy is observed for the estimation of nitrate, total phosphorus and suspended sediment loads. Methods that allow for flexibility in the relation between concentration and flow conditions, specifically Beale's ratio estimator and WRTDS, exhibit greater estimation accuracy and lower bias. Evaluation of methods across simulated sampling scenarios indicate that (1) high-flow sampling is necessary to produce accurate load estimates, (2) extrapolation of sample data through time or across more extreme flow conditions reduces load estimate accuracy, and (3) WRTDS and methods that use a Kalman filter or smoothing to correct for departures between

  3. An evaluation of methods for estimating decadal stream loads

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, Casey; Hirsch, Robert M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Holtschlag, David J.; Preston, Stephen D.; Crawford, Charles G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    2016-01-01

    Effective management of water resources requires accurate information on the mass, or load of water-quality constituents transported from upstream watersheds to downstream receiving waters. Despite this need, no single method has been shown to consistently provide accurate load estimates among different water-quality constituents, sampling sites, and sampling regimes. We evaluate the accuracy of several load estimation methods across a broad range of sampling and environmental conditions. This analysis uses random sub-samples drawn from temporally-dense data sets of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate, and suspended-sediment concentration, and includes measurements of specific conductance which was used as a surrogate for dissolved solids concentration. Methods considered include linear interpolation and ratio estimators, regression-based methods historically employed by the U.S. Geological Survey, and newer flexible techniques including Weighted Regressions on Time, Season, and Discharge (WRTDS) and a generalized non-linear additive model. No single method is identified to have the greatest accuracy across all constituents, sites, and sampling scenarios. Most methods provide accurate estimates of specific conductance (used as a surrogate for total dissolved solids or specific major ions) and total nitrogen – lower accuracy is observed for the estimation of nitrate, total phosphorus and suspended sediment loads. Methods that allow for flexibility in the relation between concentration and flow conditions, specifically Beale’s ratio estimator and WRTDS, exhibit greater estimation accuracy and lower bias. Evaluation of methods across simulated sampling scenarios indicate that (1) high-flow sampling is necessary to produce accurate load estimates, (2) extrapolation of sample data through time or across more extreme flow conditions reduces load estimate accuracy, and (3) WRTDS and methods that use a Kalman filter or smoothing to correct for departures between

  4. Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; McCullough, Dale R.; Barrett, Reginald H.

    2002-01-01

    Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

  5. Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen

    2014-01-01

    Background In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues. PMID:25013954

  6. Comparison of volume estimation methods for pancreatic islet cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvořák, JiřÃ.­; Å vihlík, Jan; Habart, David; Kybic, Jan

    2016-03-01

    In this contribution we study different methods of automatic volume estimation for pancreatic islets which can be used in the quality control step prior to the islet transplantation. The total islet volume is an important criterion in the quality control. Also, the individual islet volume distribution is interesting -- it has been indicated that smaller islets can be more effective. A 2D image of a microscopy slice containing the islets is acquired. The input of the volume estimation methods are segmented images of individual islets. The segmentation step is not discussed here. We consider simple methods of volume estimation assuming that the islets have spherical or ellipsoidal shape. We also consider a local stereological method, namely the nucleator. The nucleator does not rely on any shape assumptions and provides unbiased estimates if isotropic sections through the islets are observed. We present a simulation study comparing the performance of the volume estimation methods in different scenarios and an experimental study comparing the methods on a real dataset.

  7. A Computationally Efficient Method for Polyphonic Pitch Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Ruohua; Reiss, Joshua D.; Mattavelli, Marco; Zoia, Giorgio

    2009-12-01

    This paper presents a computationally efficient method for polyphonic pitch estimation. The method employs the Fast Resonator Time-Frequency Image (RTFI) as the basic time-frequency analysis tool. The approach is composed of two main stages. First, a preliminary pitch estimation is obtained by means of a simple peak-picking procedure in the pitch energy spectrum. Such spectrum is calculated from the original RTFI energy spectrum according to harmonic grouping principles. Then the incorrect estimations are removed according to spectral irregularity and knowledge of the harmonic structures of the music notes played on commonly used music instruments. The new approach is compared with a variety of other frame-based polyphonic pitch estimation methods, and results demonstrate the high performance and computational efficiency of the approach.

  8. Techniques and methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys in Great Lakes tributaries, 1995 to 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Christie, Gavin C.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Fodale, Michael F.; Heinrich, John W.; Quinlan, Henry R.; Weise, Jerry G.; Weisser, John W.; Young, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Before 1995, Great Lakes streams were selected for lampricide treatment based primarily on qualitative measures of the relative abundance of larval sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus. New integrated pest management approaches required standardized quantitative measures of sea lamprey. This paper evaluates historical larval assessment techniques and data and describes how new standardized methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys were developed and implemented. These new methods have been used to estimate larval and metamorphosed sea lamprey abundance in about 100 Great Lakes streams annually and to rank them for lampricide treatment since 1995. Implementation of these methods has provided a quantitative means of selecting streams for treatment based on treatment cost and estimated production of metamorphosed sea lampreys, provided managers with a tool to estimate potential recruitment of sea lampreys to the Great Lakes and the ability to measure the potential consequences of not treating streams, resulting in a more justifiable allocation of resources. The empirical data produced can also be used to simulate the impacts of various control scenarios.

  9. An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

    1989-01-01

    The method proposed for estimating sensitivity derivatives is based on the Recursive Quadratic Programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This method is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RQP algorithm. Initial testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity.

  10. An automated method of tuning an attitude estimator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mason, Paul A. C.; Mook, D. Joseph

    1995-01-01

    Attitude determination is a major element of the operation and maintenance of a spacecraft. There are several existing methods of determining the attitude of a spacecraft. One of the most commonly used methods utilizes the Kalman filter to estimate the attitude of the spacecraft. Given an accurate model of a system and adequate observations, a Kalman filter can produce accurate estimates of the attitude. If the system model, filter parameters, or observations are inaccurate, the attitude estimates may be degraded. Therefore, it is advantageous to develop a method of automatically tuning the Kalman filter to produce the accurate estimates. In this paper, a three-axis attitude determination Kalman filter, which uses only magnetometer measurements, is developed and tested using real data. The appropriate filter parameters are found via the Process Noise Covariance Estimator (PNCE). The PNCE provides an optimal criterion for determining the best filter parameters.

  11. An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

    1988-01-01

    Parameter sensitivity is defined as the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and the design variables due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. There are currently several methods for estimating parameter sensitivities requiring either difficult to obtain second order information, or do not return reliable estimates for the derivatives. Additionally, all the methods assume that the set of active constraints does not change in a neighborhood of the estimation point. If the active set does in fact change, than any extrapolations based on these derivatives may be in error. The objective here is to investigate more efficient new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities when the active set changes. The new method is based on the recursive quadratic programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RPQ algorithm. Inital testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity. To handle changes in the active set, a deflection algorithm is proposed for those cases where the new set of active constraints remains linearly independent. For those cases where dependencies occur, a directional derivative is proposed. A few simple examples are included for the algorithm, but extensive testing has not yet been performed.

  12. A method of estimating log weights.

    Treesearch

    Charles N. Mann; Hilton H. Lysons

    1972-01-01

    This paper presents a practical method of estimating the weights of logs before they are yarded. Knowledge of log weights is required to achieve optimum loading of modern yarding equipment. Truckloads of logs are weighed and measured to obtain a local density index (pounds per cubic foot) for a species of logs. The density index is then used to estimate the weights of...

  13. Demographic estimation methods for plants with unobservable life-states

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.; Schaub, M.

    2005-01-01

    Demographic estimation of vital parameters in plants with an unobservable dormant state is complicated, because time of death is not known. Conventional methods assume that death occurs at a particular time after a plant has last been seen aboveground but the consequences of assuming a particular duration of dormancy have never been tested. Capture-recapture methods do not make assumptions about time of death; however, problems with parameter estimability have not yet been resolved. To date, a critical comparative assessment of these methods is lacking. We analysed data from a 10 year study of Cleistes bifaria, a terrestrial orchid with frequent dormancy, and compared demographic estimates obtained by five varieties of the conventional methods, and two capture-recapture methods. All conventional methods produced spurious unity survival estimates for some years or for some states, and estimates of demographic rates sensitive to the time of death assumption. In contrast, capture-recapture methods are more parsimonious in terms of assumptions, are based on well founded theory and did not produce spurious estimates. In Cleistes, dormant episodes lasted for 1-4 years (mean 1.4, SD 0.74). The capture-recapture models estimated ramet survival rate at 0.86 (SE~ 0.01), ranging from 0.77-0.94 (SEs # 0.1) in anyone year. The average fraction dormant was estimated at 30% (SE 1.5), ranging 16 -47% (SEs # 5.1) in anyone year. Multistate capture-recapture models showed that survival rates were positively related to precipitation in the current year, but transition rates were more strongly related to precipitation in the previous than in the current year, with more ramets going dormant following dry years. Not all capture-recapture models of interest have estimable parameters; for instance, without excavating plants in years when they do not appear aboveground, it is not possible to obtain independent timespecific survival estimates for dormant plants. We introduce rigorous

  14. Kriging and local polynomial methods for blending satellite-derived and gauge precipitation estimates to support hydrologic early warning systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verdin, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William

    2016-01-01

    Robust estimates of precipitation in space and time are important for efficient natural resource management and for mitigating natural hazards. This is particularly true in regions with developing infrastructure and regions that are frequently exposed to extreme events. Gauge observations of rainfall are sparse but capture the precipitation process with high fidelity. Due to its high resolution and complete spatial coverage, satellite-derived rainfall data are an attractive alternative in data-sparse regions and are often used to support hydrometeorological early warning systems. Satellite-derived precipitation data, however, tend to underrepresent extreme precipitation events. Thus, it is often desirable to blend spatially extensive satellite-derived rainfall estimates with high-fidelity rain gauge observations to obtain more accurate precipitation estimates. In this research, we use two different methods, namely, ordinary kriging and κ-nearest neighbor local polynomials, to blend rain gauge observations with the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates in data-sparse Central America and Colombia. The utility of these methods in producing blended precipitation estimates at pentadal (five-day) and monthly time scales is demonstrated. We find that these blending methods significantly improve the satellite-derived estimates and are competitive in their ability to capture extreme precipitation.

  15. A Comparative Study of Distribution System Parameter Estimation Methods

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sun, Yannan; Williams, Tess L.; Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup

    2016-07-17

    In this paper, we compare two parameter estimation methods for distribution systems: residual sensitivity analysis and state-vector augmentation with a Kalman filter. These two methods were originally proposed for transmission systems, and are still the most commonly used methods for parameter estimation. Distribution systems have much lower measurement redundancy than transmission systems. Therefore, estimating parameters is much more difficult. To increase the robustness of parameter estimation, the two methods are applied with combined measurement snapshots (measurement sets taken at different points in time), so that the redundancy for computing the parameter values is increased. The advantages and disadvantages of bothmore » methods are discussed. The results of this paper show that state-vector augmentation is a better approach for parameter estimation in distribution systems. Simulation studies are done on a modified version of IEEE 13-Node Test Feeder with varying levels of measurement noise and non-zero error in the other system model parameters.« less

  16. Evaluation of three paediatric weight estimation methods in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Loo, Pei Ying; Chong, Shu-Ling; Lek, Ngee; Bautista, Dianne; Ng, Kee Chong

    2013-04-01

    Rapid paediatric weight estimation methods in the emergency setting have not been evaluated for South East Asian children. This study aims to assess the accuracy and precision of three such methods in Singapore children: Broselow-Luten (BL) tape, Advanced Paediatric Life Support (APLS) (estimated weight (kg) = 2 (age + 4)) and Luscombe (estimated weight (kg) = 3 (age) + 7) formulae. We recruited 875 patients aged 1-10 years in a Paediatric Emergency Department in Singapore over a 2-month period. For each patient, true weight and height were determined. True height was cross-referenced to the BL tape markings and used to derive estimated weight (virtual BL tape method), while patient's round-down age (in years) was used to derive estimated weights using APLS and Luscombe formulae, respectively. The percentage difference between the true and estimated weights was calculated. For each method, the bias and extent of agreement were quantified using Bland-Altman method (mean percentage difference (MPD) and 95% limits of agreement (LOA)). The proportion of weight estimates within 10% of true weight (p₁₀) was determined. The BL tape method marginally underestimated weights (MPD +0.6%; 95% LOA -26.8% to +28.1%; p₁₀ 58.9%). The APLS formula underestimated weights (MPD +7.6%; 95% LOA -26.5% to +41.7%; p₁₀ 45.7%). The Luscombe formula overestimated weights (MPD -7.4%; 95% LOA -51.0% to +36.2%; p₁₀ 37.7%). Of the three methods we evaluated, the BL tape method provided the most accurate and precise weight estimation for Singapore children. The APLS and Luscombe formulae underestimated and overestimated the children's weights, respectively, and were considerably less precise. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  17. A Channelization-Based DOA Estimation Method for Wideband Signals

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Rui; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method for wideband signals with sensor arrays. The proposed method splits the wideband array output into multiple frequency sub-channels and estimates the signal parameters using a digital channelization receiver. Based on the output sub-channels, a channelization-based incoherent signal subspace method (Channelization-ISM) and a channelization-based test of orthogonality of projected subspaces method (Channelization-TOPS) are proposed. Channelization-ISM applies narrowband signal subspace methods on each sub-channel independently. Then the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of the estimated DOAs from each sub-channel gives the final result. Channelization-TOPS measures the orthogonality between the signal and the noise subspaces of the output sub-channels to estimate DOAs. The proposed channelization-based method isolates signals in different bandwidths reasonably and improves the output SNR. It outperforms the conventional ISM and TOPS methods on estimation accuracy and dynamic range, especially in real environments. Besides, the parallel processing architecture makes it easy to implement on hardware. A wideband digital array radar (DAR) using direct wideband radio frequency (RF) digitization is presented. Experiments carried out in a microwave anechoic chamber with the wideband DAR are presented to demonstrate the performance. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:27384566

  18. Fused methods for visual saliency estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danko, Amanda S.; Lyu, Siwei

    2015-02-01

    In this work, we present a new model of visual saliency by combing results from existing methods, improving upon their performance and accuracy. By fusing pre-attentive and context-aware methods, we highlight the abilities of state-of-the-art models while compensating for their deficiencies. We put this theory to the test in a series of experiments, comparatively evaluating the visual saliency maps and employing them for content-based image retrieval and thumbnail generation. We find that on average our model yields definitive improvements upon recall and f-measure metrics with comparable precisions. In addition, we find that all image searches using our fused method return more correct images and additionally rank them higher than the searches using the original methods alone.

  19. Reference-free error estimation for multiple measurement methods.

    PubMed

    Madan, Hennadii; Pernuš, Franjo; Špiclin, Žiga

    2018-01-01

    We present a computational framework to select the most accurate and precise method of measurement of a certain quantity, when there is no access to the true value of the measurand. A typical use case is when several image analysis methods are applied to measure the value of a particular quantitative imaging biomarker from the same images. The accuracy of each measurement method is characterized by systematic error (bias), which is modeled as a polynomial in true values of measurand, and the precision as random error modeled with a Gaussian random variable. In contrast to previous works, the random errors are modeled jointly across all methods, thereby enabling the framework to analyze measurement methods based on similar principles, which may have correlated random errors. Furthermore, the posterior distribution of the error model parameters is estimated from samples obtained by Markov chain Monte-Carlo and analyzed to estimate the parameter values and the unknown true values of the measurand. The framework was validated on six synthetic and one clinical dataset containing measurements of total lesion load, a biomarker of neurodegenerative diseases, which was obtained with four automatic methods by analyzing brain magnetic resonance images. The estimates of bias and random error were in a good agreement with the corresponding least squares regression estimates against a reference.

  20. Loss of ability to work and ability to live independently in Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Jasinska-Myga, Barbara; Heckman, Michael G; Wider, Christian; Putzke, John D; Wszolek, Zbigniew K; Uitti, Ryan J

    2012-02-01

    Ability to work and live independently is of particular concern for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). We studied a series of PD patients able to work or live independently at baseline, and evaluated potential risk factors for two separate outcomes: loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. The series comprised 495 PD patients followed prospectively. Ability to work and ability to live independently were based on clinical interview and examination. Cox regression models adjusted for age and disease duration were used to evaluate associations of baseline characteristics with loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. Higher UPDRS dyskinesia score, UPDRS instability score, UPDRS total score, Hoehn and Yahr stage, and presence of intellectual impairment at baseline were all associated with increased risk of future loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently (P ≤ 0.0033). Five years after initial visit, for patients ≤70 years of age with a disease duration ≤4 years at initial visit, 88% were still able to work and 90% to live independently. These estimates worsened as age and disease duration at initial visit increased; for patients >70 years of age with a disease duration >4 years, estimates at 5 years were 43% able to work and 57% able to live independently. The information provided in this study can offer useful information for PD patients in preparing for future ability to perform activities of daily living. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. New methods of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Mokeshrayalu, G.; Balasiddamuni, P.

    2017-11-01

    This research paper discusses the method of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative Nonlinear Least Squares (NLLS) estimator. Takeshi Amemiya [1] explained this method. However in the present research paper, a modified Wald test statistic due to Engle, Robert [6] is proposed to test the nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator. An alternative method for testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator based on nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator based on nonlinear studentized residuals has been proposed. In this research article an innovative method of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative restricted NLLS estimator is derived. Pesaran and Deaton [10] explained the methods of testing nonlinear hypothesis. This paper uses asymptotic properties of nonlinear least squares estimator proposed by Jenrich [8]. The main purpose of this paper is to provide very innovative methods of testing nonlinear hypothesis using iterative NLLS estimator, iterative NLLS estimator based on nonlinear studentized residuals and iterative restricted NLLS estimator. Eakambaram et al. [12] discussed least absolute deviation estimations versus nonlinear regression model with heteroscedastic errors and also they studied the problem of heteroscedasticity with reference to nonlinear regression models with suitable illustration. William Grene [13] examined the interaction effect in nonlinear models disused by Ai and Norton [14] and suggested ways to examine the effects that do not involve statistical testing. Peter [15] provided guidelines for identifying composite hypothesis and addressing the probability of false rejection for multiple hypotheses.

  2. [Visual perceptual abilities of children with low motor abilities--a pilot study].

    PubMed

    Werpup-Stüwe, Lina; Petermann, Franz

    2015-01-01

    The results of many studies show visual perceptual deficits in children with low motor abilities. This study aims to indicate the correlation between visual-perceptual and motor abilities. The correlation of visual-perceptual and motor abilities of 41 children is measured by using the German versions of the Developmental Test of Visual Perception--Adolescent and Adult (DTVP-A) and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children--Second Edition (M-ABC-2). The visual-perceptual abilities of children with low motor abilities (n=21) are also compared to the visual-perceptual abilities of children with normal motor abilities (the control group, n=20). High correlations between the visual-perceptual and motor abilities are found. The perceptual abilities of the groups differ significantly. Nearly half of the children with low motor abilities show visual-perceptual deficits. Visual perceptual abilities of children suffering coordination disorders should always be assessed. The DTVP-A is useful, because it provides the possibilities to compare motor-reduced visual-perceptual abilities and visualmotor integration abilities and to estimate the deficit's degree.

  3. Detection of main tidal frequencies using least squares harmonic estimation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mousavian, R.; Hossainali, M. Mashhadi

    2012-11-01

    In this paper the efficiency of the method of Least Squares Harmonic Estimation (LS-HE) for detecting the main tidal frequencies is investigated. Using this method, the tidal spectrum of the sea level data is evaluated at two tidal stations: Bandar Abbas in south of Iran and Workington on the eastern coast of the UK. The amplitudes of the tidal constituents at these two tidal stations are not the same. Moreover, in contrary to the Workington station, the Bandar Abbas tidal record is not an equispaced time series. Therefore, the analysis of the hourly tidal observations in Bandar Abbas and Workington can provide a reasonable insight into the efficiency of this method for analyzing the frequency content of tidal time series. Furthermore, applying the method of Fourier transform to the Workington tidal record provides an independent source of information for evaluating the tidal spectrum proposed by the LS-HE method. According to the obtained results, the spectrums of these two tidal records contain the components with the maximum amplitudes among the expected ones in this time span and some new frequencies in the list of known constituents. In addition, in terms of frequencies with maximum amplitude; the power spectrums derived from two aforementioned methods are the same. These results demonstrate the ability of LS-HE for identifying the frequencies with maximum amplitude in both tidal records.

  4. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Treesearch

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  5. Is Bayesian Estimation Proper for Estimating the Individual's Ability? Research Report 80-3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samejima, Fumiko

    The effect of prior information in Bayesian estimation is considered, mainly from the standpoint of objective testing. In the estimation of a parameter belonging to an individual, the prior information is, in most cases, the density function of the population to which the individual belongs. Bayesian estimation was compared with maximum likelihood…

  6. Comparisons of Four Methods for Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamaker, Ellen L.; Nesselroade, John R.

    2008-01-01

    Four methods for estimating a dynamic factor model, the direct autoregressive factor score (DAFS) model, are evaluated and compared. The first method estimates the DAFS model using a Kalman filter algorithm based on its state space model representation. The second one employs the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the construction of a…

  7. Application of expert-notice dialogue (END) method to assess students’ science communication ability on biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sriyati, S.; Amelia, D. N.; Soniyana, G. T.

    2018-05-01

    Student’s science communication ability can be assessed by the Expert-Notice Dialogue (END) method which focusing on verbal explanations using graphs or images as a tool. This study aims to apply the END method to assess students’ science communication ability. The study was conducted in two high schools with each sample of one class at each school (A and B). The number of experts in class A is 8 students and 7 in class B, the number of notice in class A 24 students and 30 in class B. The material chosen for explanation by expert is Ecosystem in class A and plant classification in class B. Research instruments are rubric of science communication ability, observation rubric, notice concept test and notice questionnaire. The implementation recorded with a video camera and then transcribed based on rubric science communication ability. The results showed that the average of science communication ability in class A and B was 60% and 61.8%, respectively, in enough categories. Mastery of the notice concept is in good category with 79.10 averages in class A and 94.64 in class B. Through the questionnaire notice it is known that the END method generally helps notice in understanding the concept.

  8. Analysis backpropagation methods with neural network for prediction of children's ability in psychomotoric

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izhari, F.; Dhany, H. W.; Zarlis, M.; Sutarman

    2018-03-01

    A good age in optimizing aspects of development is at the age of 4-6 years, namely with psychomotor development. Psychomotor is broader, more difficult to monitor but has a meaningful value for the child's life because it directly affects his behavior and deeds. Therefore, there is a problem to predict the child's ability level based on psychomotor. This analysis uses backpropagation method analysis with artificial neural network to predict the ability of the child on the psychomotor aspect by generating predictions of the child's ability on psychomotor and testing there is a mean squared error (MSE) value at the end of the training of 0.001. There are 30% of children aged 4-6 years have a good level of psychomotor ability, excellent, less good, and good enough.

  9. Comparison of three Bayesian methods to estimate posttest probability in patients undergoing exercise stress testing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Morise, A.P.; Duval, R.D.

    To determine whether recent refinements in Bayesian methods have led to improved diagnostic ability, 3 methods using Bayes' theorem and the independence assumption for estimating posttest probability after exercise stress testing were compared. Each method differed in the number of variables considered in the posttest probability estimate (method A = 5, method B = 6 and method C = 15). Method C is better known as CADENZA. There were 436 patients (250 men and 186 women) who underwent stress testing (135 had concurrent thallium scintigraphy) followed within 2 months by coronary arteriography. Coronary artery disease ((CAD), at least 1 vesselmore » with greater than or equal to 50% diameter narrowing) was seen in 169 (38%). Mean pretest probabilities using each method were not different. However, the mean posttest probabilities for CADENZA were significantly greater than those for method A or B (p less than 0.0001). Each decile of posttest probability was compared to the actual prevalence of CAD in that decile. At posttest probabilities less than or equal to 20%, there was underestimation of CAD. However, at posttest probabilities greater than or equal to 60%, there was overestimation of CAD by all methods, especially CADENZA. Comparison of sensitivity and specificity at every fifth percentile of posttest probability revealed that CADENZA was significantly more sensitive and less specific than methods A and B. Therefore, at lower probability thresholds, CADENZA was a better screening method. However, methods A or B still had merit as a means to confirm higher probabilities generated by CADENZA (especially greater than or equal to 60%).« less

  10. Patient-specific pharmacokinetic parameter estimation on dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI of prostate: Preliminary evaluation of a novel AIF-free estimation method.

    PubMed

    Ginsburg, Shoshana B; Taimen, Pekka; Merisaari, Harri; Vainio, Paula; Boström, Peter J; Aronen, Hannu J; Jambor, Ivan; Madabhushi, Anant

    2016-12-01

    To develop and evaluate a prostate-based method (PBM) for estimating pharmacokinetic parameters on dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by leveraging inherent differences in pharmacokinetic characteristics between the peripheral zone (PZ) and transition zone (TZ). This retrospective study, approved by the Institutional Review Board, included 40 patients who underwent a multiparametric 3T MRI examination and subsequent radical prostatectomy. A two-step PBM for estimating pharmacokinetic parameters exploited the inherent differences in pharmacokinetic characteristics associated with the TZ and PZ. First, the reference region model was implemented to estimate ratios of K trans between normal TZ and PZ. Subsequently, the reference region model was leveraged again to estimate values for K trans and v e for every prostate voxel. The parameters of PBM were compared with those estimated using an arterial input function (AIF) derived from the femoral arteries. The ability of the parameters to differentiate prostate cancer (PCa) from benign tissue was evaluated on a voxel and lesion level. Additionally, the effect of temporal downsampling of the DCE MRI data was assessed. Significant differences (P < 0.05) in PBM K trans between PCa lesions and benign tissue were found in 26/27 patients with TZ lesions and in 33/38 patients with PZ lesions; significant differences in AIF-based K trans occurred in 26/27 and 30/38 patients, respectively. The 75 th and 100 th percentiles of K trans and v e estimated using PBM positively correlated with lesion size (P < 0.05). Pharmacokinetic parameters estimated via PBM outperformed AIF-based parameters in PCa detection. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2016;44:1405-1414. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  11. A TRMM Rainfall Estimation Method Applicable to Land Areas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R.; Weinman, J.; Dalu, G.

    1999-01-01

    Methods developed to estimate rain rate on a footprint scale over land with the satellite-borne multispectral dual-polarization Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) radiometer have met with limited success. Variability of surface emissivity on land and beam filling are commonly cited as the weaknesses of these methods. On the contrary, we contend a more significant reason for this lack of success is that the information content of spectral and polarization measurements of the SSM/I is limited. because of significant redundancy. As a result, the complex nature and vertical distribution C, of frozen and melting ice particles of different densities, sizes, and shapes cannot resolved satisfactorily. Extinction in the microwave region due to these complex particles can mask the extinction due to rain drops. Because of these reasons, theoretical models that attempt to retrieve rain rate do not succeed on a footprint scale. To illustrate the weakness of these models, as an example we can consider the brightness temperature measurement made by the radiometer in the 85 GHz channel (T85). Models indicate that T85 should be inversely related to the rain rate, because of scattering. However, rain rate derived from 15-minute rain gauges on land indicate that this is not true in a majority of footprints. This is also supported by the ship-borne radar observations of rain in the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) region over the ocean. Based on these observations. we infer that theoretical models that attempt to retrieve rain rate do not succeed on a footprint scale. We do not follow the above path of rain retrieval on a footprint scale. Instead, we depend on the limited ability of the microwave radiometer to detect the presence of rain. This capability is useful to determine the rain area in a mesoscale region. We find in a given rain event that this rain area is closely related to the mesoscale-average rain rate

  12. Differential Covariance: A New Class of Methods to Estimate Sparse Connectivity from Neural Recordings

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Tiger W.; Das, Anup; Krishnan, Giri P.; Bazhenov, Maxim; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

    2017-01-01

    With our ability to record more neurons simultaneously, making sense of these data is a challenge. Functional connectivity is one popular way to study the relationship of multiple neural signals. Correlation-based methods are a set of currently well-used techniques for functional connectivity estimation. However, due to explaining away and unobserved common inputs (Stevenson, Rebesco, Miller, & Körding, 2008), they produce spurious connections. The general linear model (GLM), which models spike trains as Poisson processes (Okatan, Wilson, & Brown, 2005; Truccolo, Eden, Fellows, Donoghue, & Brown, 2005; Pillow et al., 2008), avoids these confounds. We develop here a new class of methods by using differential signals based on simulated intracellular voltage recordings. It is equivalent to a regularized AR(2) model. We also expand the method to simulated local field potential recordings and calcium imaging. In all of our simulated data, the differential covariance-based methods achieved performance better than or similar to the GLM method and required fewer data samples. This new class of methods provides alternative ways to analyze neural signals. PMID:28777719

  13. Differential Covariance: A New Class of Methods to Estimate Sparse Connectivity from Neural Recordings.

    PubMed

    Lin, Tiger W; Das, Anup; Krishnan, Giri P; Bazhenov, Maxim; Sejnowski, Terrence J

    2017-10-01

    With our ability to record more neurons simultaneously, making sense of these data is a challenge. Functional connectivity is one popular way to study the relationship of multiple neural signals. Correlation-based methods are a set of currently well-used techniques for functional connectivity estimation. However, due to explaining away and unobserved common inputs (Stevenson, Rebesco, Miller, & Körding, 2008 ), they produce spurious connections. The general linear model (GLM), which models spike trains as Poisson processes (Okatan, Wilson, & Brown, 2005 ; Truccolo, Eden, Fellows, Donoghue, & Brown, 2005 ; Pillow et al., 2008 ), avoids these confounds. We develop here a new class of methods by using differential signals based on simulated intracellular voltage recordings. It is equivalent to a regularized AR(2) model. We also expand the method to simulated local field potential recordings and calcium imaging. In all of our simulated data, the differential covariance-based methods achieved performance better than or similar to the GLM method and required fewer data samples. This new class of methods provides alternative ways to analyze neural signals.

  14. A source number estimation method for single optical fiber sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Junpeng; Huang, Zhiping; Su, Shaojing; Zhang, Yimeng; Liu, Chunwu

    2015-10-01

    The single-channel blind source separation (SCBSS) technique makes great significance in many fields, such as optical fiber communication, sensor detection, image processing and so on. It is a wide range application to realize blind source separation (BSS) from a single optical fiber sensor received data. The performance of many BSS algorithms and signal process methods will be worsened with inaccurate source number estimation. Many excellent algorithms have been proposed to deal with the source number estimation in array signal process which consists of multiple sensors, but they can not be applied directly to the single sensor condition. This paper presents a source number estimation method dealing with the single optical fiber sensor received data. By delay process, this paper converts the single sensor received data to multi-dimension form. And the data covariance matrix is constructed. Then the estimation algorithms used in array signal processing can be utilized. The information theoretic criteria (ITC) based methods, presented by AIC and MDL, Gerschgorin's disk estimation (GDE) are introduced to estimate the source number of the single optical fiber sensor's received signal. To improve the performance of these estimation methods at low signal noise ratio (SNR), this paper make a smooth process to the data covariance matrix. By the smooth process, the fluctuation and uncertainty of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix are reduced. Simulation results prove that ITC base methods can not estimate the source number effectively under colored noise. The GDE method, although gets a poor performance at low SNR, but it is able to accurately estimate the number of sources with colored noise. The experiments also show that the proposed method can be applied to estimate the source number of single sensor received data.

  15. Impedance-estimation methods, modeling methods, articles of manufacture, impedance-modeling devices, and estimated-impedance monitoring systems

    DOEpatents

    Richardson, John G [Idaho Falls, ID

    2009-11-17

    An impedance estimation method includes measuring three or more impedances of an object having a periphery using three or more probes coupled to the periphery. The three or more impedance measurements are made at a first frequency. Three or more additional impedance measurements of the object are made using the three or more probes. The three or more additional impedance measurements are made at a second frequency different from the first frequency. An impedance of the object at a point within the periphery is estimated based on the impedance measurements and the additional impedance measurements.

  16. Rapid-estimation method for assessing scour at highway bridges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holnbeck, Stephen R.

    1998-01-01

    A method was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for rapid estimation of scour at highway bridges using limited site data and analytical procedures to estimate pier, abutment, and contraction scour depths. The basis for the method was a procedure recommended by the Federal Highway Administration for conducting detailed scour investigations, commonly referred to as the Level 2 method. Using pier, abutment, and contraction scour results obtained from Level 2 investigations at 122 sites in 10 States, envelope curves and graphical relations were developed that enable determination of scour-depth estimates at most bridge sites in a matter of a few hours. Rather than using complex hydraulic variables, surrogate variables more easily obtained in the field were related to calculated scour-depth data from Level 2 studies. The method was tested by having several experienced individuals apply the method in the field, and results were compared among the individuals and with previous detailed analyses performed for the sites. Results indicated that the variability in predicted scour depth among individuals applying the method generally was within an acceptable range, and that conservatively greater scour depths generally were obtained by the rapid-estimation method compared to the Level 2 method. The rapid-estimation method is considered most applicable for conducting limited-detail scour assessments and as a screening tool to determine those bridge sites that may require more detailed analysis. The method is designed to be applied only by a qualified professional possessing knowledge and experience in the fields of bridge scour, hydraulics, and flood hydrology, and having specific expertise with the Level 2 method.

  17. Research on evaluation methods for water regulation ability of dams in the Huai River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shan, G. H.; Lv, S. F.; Ma, K.

    2016-08-01

    Water environment protection is a global and urgent problem that requires correct and precise evaluation. Evaluation methods have been studied for many years; however, there is a lack of research on the methods of assessing the water regulation ability of dams. Currently, evaluating the ability of dams has become a practical and significant research orientation because of the global water crisis, and the lack of effective ways to manage a dam's regulation ability has only compounded this. This paper firstly constructs seven evaluation factors and then develops two evaluation approaches to implement the factors according to the features of the problem. Dams of the Yin Shang ecological control section in the Huai He River basin are selected as an example to demonstrate the method. The results show that the evaluation approaches can produce better and more practical suggestions for dam managers.

  18. Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lamaire, Richard Orville

    1987-01-01

    A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

  19. A phase match based frequency estimation method for sinusoidal signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Yan-Lin; Tu, Ya-Qing; Chen, Lin-Jun; Shen, Ting-Ao

    2015-04-01

    Accurate frequency estimation affects the ranging precision of linear frequency modulated continuous wave (LFMCW) radars significantly. To improve the ranging precision of LFMCW radars, a phase match based frequency estimation method is proposed. To obtain frequency estimation, linear prediction property, autocorrelation, and cross correlation of sinusoidal signals are utilized. The analysis of computational complex shows that the computational load of the proposed method is smaller than those of two-stage autocorrelation (TSA) and maximum likelihood. Simulations and field experiments are performed to validate the proposed method, and the results demonstrate the proposed method has better performance in terms of frequency estimation precision than methods of Pisarenko harmonic decomposition, modified covariance, and TSA, which contribute to improving the precision of LFMCW radars effectively.

  20. Estimating age-specific reproductive numbers-A comparison of methods.

    PubMed

    Moser, Carlee B; White, Laura F

    2016-01-01

    Large outbreaks, such as those caused by influenza, put a strain on resources necessary for their control. In particular, children have been shown to play a key role in influenza transmission during recent outbreaks, and targeted interventions, such as school closures, could positively impact the course of emerging epidemics. As an outbreak is unfolding, it is important to be able to estimate reproductive numbers that incorporate this heterogeneity and to use surveillance data that is routinely collected to more effectively target interventions and obtain an accurate understanding of transmission dynamics. There are a growing number of methods that estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers with limited data that build on methods assuming a homogenously mixing population. In this article, we introduce a new approach that is flexible and improves on many aspects of existing methods. We apply this method to influenza data from two outbreaks, the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in South Africa and Japan, to estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers and compare it to three other methods that also use existing data from social mixing surveys to quantify contact rates among different age groups. In this exercise, all estimates of the reproductive numbers for children exceeded the critical threshold of one and in most cases exceeded those of adults. We introduce a flexible new method to estimate reproductive numbers that describe heterogeneity in the population.

  1. A quick on-line state of health estimation method for Li-ion battery with incremental capacity curves processed by Gaussian filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yi; Abdel-Monem, Mohamed; Gopalakrishnan, Rahul; Berecibar, Maitane; Nanini-Maury, Elise; Omar, Noshin; van den Bossche, Peter; Van Mierlo, Joeri

    2018-01-01

    This paper proposes an advanced state of health (SoH) estimation method for high energy NMC lithium-ion batteries based on the incremental capacity (IC) analysis. IC curves are used due to their ability of detect and quantify battery degradation mechanism. A simple and robust smoothing method is proposed based on Gaussian filter to reduce the noise on IC curves, the signatures associated with battery ageing can therefore be accurately identified. A linear regression relationship is found between the battery capacity with the positions of features of interest (FOIs) on IC curves. Results show that the developed SoH estimation function from one single battery cell is able to evaluate the SoH of other batteries cycled under different cycling depth with less than 2.5% maximum errors, which proves the robustness of the proposed method on SoH estimation. With this technique, partial charging voltage curves can be used for SoH estimation and the testing time can be therefore largely reduced. This method shows great potential to be applied in reality, as it only requires static charging curves and can be easily implemented in battery management system (BMS).

  2. Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

    PubMed

    Le Vu, Stéphane; Ratmann, Oliver; Delpech, Valerie; Brown, Alison E; Gill, O Noel; Tostevin, Anna; Fraser, Christophe; Volz, Erik M

    2018-06-01

    Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. The description of a method for accurately estimating creatinine clearance in acute kidney injury.

    PubMed

    Mellas, John

    2016-05-01

    were 96 measurements in six different patients where Ka was compared to Ke. The estimated proportion of Ke within 30% of Ka was 0.907 with 95% exact binomial proportion confidence limits. The predictive accuracy of E/P in the study patients was also reported as a proportion and the associated 95% confidence limits: 0.848 (0.800, 0.896) for E/P<1; 0.939 (0.904, 0.974) for E/P>1 and 0.907 (0.841, 0.973) for 0.95 ml/min accurately predicted the ability to terminate renal replacement therapy in AKI. Include the need to measure urine volume accurately. Furthermore the precision of the method requires accurate estimates of sGFR, while a reasonable measure of P is crucial to estimating Ke. The present study provides the practitioner with a new tool to estimate real time K in AKI with enough precision to predict the severity of the renal injury, including progression, stabilization, or improvement in azotemia. It is the author's belief that this simple method improves on RIFLE, AKIN, and KDIGO for estimating the degree of renal impairment in AKI and allows a more accurate estimate of K in AKI. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Being on sick leave due to heart failure: Encounters with social insurance officers and associations with sociodemographic factors and self-estimated ability to return to work.

    PubMed

    Nordgren, Lena; Söderlund, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Little is known about sick leave and the ability to return to work (RTW) for people with heart failure (HF). Previous research findings raise questions about the significance of encounters with social insurance officers (SIOs) and sociodemographics in people sick-listed due to HF. To investigate how people on sick leave due to HF experience encounters with SIOs and associations between sociodemographic factors, experiences of positive/negative encounters with SIOs, and self-estimated ability to RTW. This was a population-based study with a cross-sectional design. The sample consisted of 590 sick-listed people with HF in Sweden. A register-based investigation supplemented with a postal survey questionnaire was conducted. Bivariate correlations and logistic regression analysis was used to test associations between sociodemographic factors, positive and negative encounters, and self-estimated ability to RTW. People with low income were more likely to receive sickness compensation. A majority of the responders experienced encounters with SIOs as positive. Being married was significantly associated with positive encounters. Having a low income was related to negative encounters. More than a third of the responders agreed that positive encounters with SIOs facilitated self-estimated ability to RTW. High income was strongly associated with the impact of positive encounters on self-estimated ability to RTW. Encounters between SIOs and people on sick leave due to HF need to be characterized by a person-centred approach including confidence and trust. People with low income need special attention. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  5. Bayesian methods for estimating GEBVs of threshold traits

    PubMed Central

    Wang, C-L; Ding, X-D; Wang, J-Y; Liu, J-F; Fu, W-X; Zhang, Z; Yin, Z-J; Zhang, Q

    2013-01-01

    Estimation of genomic breeding values is the key step in genomic selection (GS). Many methods have been proposed for continuous traits, but methods for threshold traits are still scarce. Here we introduced threshold model to the framework of GS, and specifically, we extended the three Bayesian methods BayesA, BayesB and BayesCπ on the basis of threshold model for estimating genomic breeding values of threshold traits, and the extended methods are correspondingly termed BayesTA, BayesTB and BayesTCπ. Computing procedures of the three BayesT methods using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm were derived. A simulation study was performed to investigate the benefit of the presented methods in accuracy with the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for threshold traits. Factors affecting the performance of the three BayesT methods were addressed. As expected, the three BayesT methods generally performed better than the corresponding normal Bayesian methods, in particular when the number of phenotypic categories was small. In the standard scenario (number of categories=2, incidence=30%, number of quantitative trait loci=50, h2=0.3), the accuracies were improved by 30.4%, 2.4%, and 5.7% points, respectively. In most scenarios, BayesTB and BayesTCπ generated similar accuracies and both performed better than BayesTA. In conclusion, our work proved that threshold model fits well for predicting GEBVs of threshold traits, and BayesTCπ is supposed to be the method of choice for GS of threshold traits. PMID:23149458

  6. The Confounding Effects of Ability, Item Difficulty, and Content Balance within Multiple Dimensions on the Estimation of Unidimensional Thetas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matlock, Ki Lynn

    2013-01-01

    When test forms that have equal total test difficulty and number of items vary in difficulty and length within sub-content areas, an examinee's estimated score may vary across equivalent forms, depending on how well his or her true ability in each sub-content area aligns with the difficulty of items and number of items within these areas.…

  7. A comparison of analysis methods to estimate contingency strength.

    PubMed

    Lloyd, Blair P; Staubitz, Johanna L; Tapp, Jon T

    2018-05-09

    To date, several data analysis methods have been used to estimate contingency strength, yet few studies have compared these methods directly. To compare the relative precision and sensitivity of four analysis methods (i.e., exhaustive event-based, nonexhaustive event-based, concurrent interval, concurrent+lag interval), we applied all methods to a simulated data set in which several response-dependent and response-independent schedules of reinforcement were programmed. We evaluated the degree to which contingency strength estimates produced from each method (a) corresponded with expected values for response-dependent schedules and (b) showed sensitivity to parametric manipulations of response-independent reinforcement. Results indicated both event-based methods produced contingency strength estimates that aligned with expected values for response-dependent schedules, but differed in sensitivity to response-independent reinforcement. The precision of interval-based methods varied by analysis method (concurrent vs. concurrent+lag) and schedule type (continuous vs. partial), and showed similar sensitivities to response-independent reinforcement. Recommendations and considerations for measuring contingencies are identified. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  8. Brain mass estimation by head circumference and body mass methods in neonatal glycaemic modelling and control.

    PubMed

    Gunn, Cameron Allan; Dickson, Jennifer L; Pretty, Christopher G; Alsweiler, Jane M; Lynn, Adrienne; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2014-07-01

    Hyperglycaemia is a common complication of stress and prematurity in extremely low-birth-weight infants. Model-based insulin therapy protocols have the ability to safely improve glycaemic control for this group. Estimating non-insulin-mediated brain glucose uptake by the central nervous system in these models is typically done using population-based body weight models, which may not be ideal. A head circumference-based model that separately treats small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) infants is compared to a body weight model in a retrospective analysis of 48 patients with a median birth weight of 750g and median gestational age of 25 weeks. Estimated brain mass, model-based insulin sensitivity (SI) profiles, and projected glycaemic control outcomes are investigated. SGA infants (5) are also analyzed as a separate cohort. Across the entire cohort, estimated brain mass deviated by a median 10% between models, with a per-patient median difference in SI of 3.5%. For the SGA group, brain mass deviation was 42%, and per-patient SI deviation 13.7%. In virtual trials, 87-93% of recommended insulin rates were equal or slightly reduced (Δ<0.16mU/h) under the head circumference method, while glycaemic control outcomes showed little change. The results suggest that body weight methods are not as accurate as head circumference methods. Head circumference-based estimates may offer improved modelling accuracy and a small reduction in insulin administration, particularly for SGA infants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Method for estimating air-drying times of lumber

    Treesearch

    William T. Simpson; C. Arthur Hart

    2001-01-01

    Published information on estimated air-drying times of lumber is of limited usefulness because it is restricted to a specific location or to the time of year the lumber is stacked for drying. At best, these estimates give a wide range of possible times over a broad range of possible locations and stacking dates. In this paper, we describe a method for estimating air-...

  10. A Group Contribution Method for Estimating Cetane and Octane Numbers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kubic, William Louis

    Much of the research on advanced biofuels is devoted to the study of novel chemical pathways for converting nonfood biomass into liquid fuels that can be blended with existing transportation fuels. Many compounds under consideration are not found in the existing fuel supplies. Often, the physical properties needed to assess the viability of a potential biofuel are not available. The only reliable information available may be the molecular structure. Group contribution methods for estimating physical properties from molecular structure have been used for more than 60 years. The most common application is estimation of thermodynamic properties. More recently, group contributionmore » methods have been developed for estimating rate dependent properties including cetane and octane numbers. Often, published group contribution methods are limited in terms of types of function groups and range of applicability. In this study, a new, broadly-applicable group contribution method based on an artificial neural network was developed to estimate cetane number research octane number, and motor octane numbers of hydrocarbons and oxygenated hydrocarbons. The new method is more accurate over a greater range molecular weights and structural complexity than existing group contribution methods for estimating cetane and octane numbers.« less

  11. Motion estimation using point cluster method and Kalman filter.

    PubMed

    Senesh, M; Wolf, A

    2009-05-01

    The most frequently used method in a three dimensional human gait analysis involves placing markers on the skin of the analyzed segment. This introduces a significant artifact, which strongly influences the bone position and orientation and joint kinematic estimates. In this study, we tested and evaluated the effect of adding a Kalman filter procedure to the previously reported point cluster technique (PCT) in the estimation of a rigid body motion. We demonstrated the procedures by motion analysis of a compound planar pendulum from indirect opto-electronic measurements of markers attached to an elastic appendage that is restrained to slide along the rigid body long axis. The elastic frequency is close to the pendulum frequency, as in the biomechanical problem, where the soft tissue frequency content is similar to the actual movement of the bones. Comparison of the real pendulum angle to that obtained by several estimation procedures--PCT, Kalman filter followed by PCT, and low pass filter followed by PCT--enables evaluation of the accuracy of the procedures. When comparing the maximal amplitude, no effect was noted by adding the Kalman filter; however, a closer look at the signal revealed that the estimated angle based only on the PCT method was very noisy with fluctuation, while the estimated angle based on the Kalman filter followed by the PCT was a smooth signal. It was also noted that the instantaneous frequencies obtained from the estimated angle based on the PCT method is more dispersed than those obtained from the estimated angle based on Kalman filter followed by the PCT method. Addition of a Kalman filter to the PCT method in the estimation procedure of rigid body motion results in a smoother signal that better represents the real motion, with less signal distortion than when using a digital low pass filter. Furthermore, it can be concluded that adding a Kalman filter to the PCT procedure substantially reduces the dispersion of the maximal and minimal

  12. A study of methods to estimate debris flow velocity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prochaska, A.B.; Santi, P.M.; Higgins, J.D.; Cannon, S.H.

    2008-01-01

    Debris flow velocities are commonly back-calculated from superelevation events which require subjective estimates of radii of curvature of bends in the debris flow channel or predicted using flow equations that require the selection of appropriate rheological models and material property inputs. This research investigated difficulties associated with the use of these conventional velocity estimation methods. Radii of curvature estimates were found to vary with the extent of the channel investigated and with the scale of the media used, and back-calculated velocities varied among different investigated locations along a channel. Distinct populations of Bingham properties were found to exist between those measured by laboratory tests and those back-calculated from field data; thus, laboratory-obtained values would not be representative of field-scale debris flow behavior. To avoid these difficulties with conventional methods, a new preliminary velocity estimation method is presented that statistically relates flow velocity to the channel slope and the flow depth. This method presents ranges of reasonable velocity predictions based on 30 previously measured velocities. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

  13. The augmented Lagrangian method for parameter estimation in elliptic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ito, Kazufumi; Kunisch, Karl

    1990-01-01

    In this paper a new technique for the estimation of parameters in elliptic partial differential equations is developed. It is a hybrid method combining the output-least-squares and the equation error method. The new method is realized by an augmented Lagrangian formulation, and convergence as well as rate of convergence proofs are provided. Technically the critical step is the verification of a coercivity estimate of an appropriately defined Lagrangian functional. To obtain this coercivity estimate a seminorm regularization technique is used.

  14. Developing the Students’ English Speaking Ability Through Impromptu Speaking Method.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lumettu, A.; Runtuwene, T. L.

    2018-01-01

    Having multi -purposes, English mastery has becomea necessary for us.Of the four language skills, speaking skill should get the first priority in English teaching and speaking skills development cannot be separated from listening.One communicative way of developing speaking skill is impromptu speaking,a method sudden speaking which depends only on experience and insight by applying spontaneity or improvisation. It is delivered based on the need of the moment of speaking using simple language.This research aims to know (1). Why impromptu speaking is necessary in teaching speaking? (2). How can impromptu speaking develop the students’ speaking skills.The method of this research is qualitative method and the techniques of data collection are: observation,interview and documentation. The results of data analysis using Correlation shows a strong relation between the students’ speaking ability and impromptu speaking method (r = 0.80).The research show that by using impromptu speaking method, the students are trained to interact faster naturally and spontaneously and enrich their vocabulary and general science to support speaking development through interview, speech, presentation, discussion and storytelling.

  15. Using Grain-Size Distribution Methods for Estimation of Air Permeability.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tiejun; Huang, Yuanyang; Chen, Xunhong; Chen, Xi

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of air permeability (ka ) at dry conditions is critical for the use of air flow models in porous media; however, it is usually difficult and time consuming to measure ka at dry conditions. It is thus desirable to estimate ka at dry conditions from other readily obtainable properties. In this study, the feasibility of using information derived from grain-size distributions (GSDs) for estimating ka at dry conditions was examined. Fourteen GSD-based equations originally developed for estimating saturated hydraulic conductivity were tested using ka measured at dry conditions in both undisturbed and disturbed river sediment samples. On average, the estimated ka from all the equations, except for the method of Slichter, differed by less than ± 4 times from the measured ka for both undisturbed and disturbed groups. In particular, for the two sediment groups, the results given by the methods of Terzaghi and Hazen-modified were comparable to the measured ka . In addition, two methods (e.g., Barr and Beyer) for the undisturbed samples and one method (e.g., Hazen-original) for the undisturbed samples were also able to produce comparable ka estimates. Moreover, after adjusting the values of the coefficient C in the GSD-based equations, the estimation of ka was significantly improved with the differences between the measured and estimated ka less than ±4% on average (except for the method of Barr). As demonstrated by this study, GSD-based equations may provide a promising and efficient way to estimate ka at dry conditions. © 2015, National Ground Water Association.

  16. Comparison of Methods for Estimating Evapotranspiration using Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beamer, J. P.; Morton, C.; Huntington, J. L.; Pohll, G.

    2010-12-01

    Estimating the annual evapotranspiration (ET) in arid and semi-arid environments is important for managing water resources. In this study we use remote sensing methods to estimate ET from different areas located in western and eastern Nevada. Surface energy balance (SEB) and vegetation indices (VI) are two common methods for estimating ET using satellite data. The purpose of this study is to compare these methods for estimating annual ET and highlight strengths and weaknesses in both methods. The SEB approach used is based on the Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) model, which estimates ET as a residual of the energy balance. METRIC has been shown to produce accurate results in agricultural and riparian settings. The VI approach used is based on statistical relationships between annual ET and various VI’s. The VI approaches have also shown to produce fairly accurate estimates of ET for various vegetation types, however consideration for spatial variations in potential ET and precipitation amount are generally ignored, leading to restrictions in their application. In this work we develop a VI approach that considers the study area potential ET and precipitation amount and compare this approach to METRIC and flux tower estimates of annual ET for several arid phreatophyte shrubs and irrigated agriculture settings.

  17. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  18. Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

    DOE PAGES

    Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.; ...

    2017-08-25

    Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

  19. Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.

    Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

  20. How to apply the optimal estimation method to your lidar measurements for improved retrievals of temperature and composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sica, R. J.; Haefele, A.; Jalali, A.; Gamage, S.; Farhani, G.

    2018-04-01

    The optimal estimation method (OEM) has a long history of use in passive remote sensing, but has only recently been applied to active instruments like lidar. The OEM's advantage over traditional techniques includes obtaining a full systematic and random uncertainty budget plus the ability to work with the raw measurements without first applying instrument corrections. In our meeting presentation we will show you how to use the OEM for temperature and composition retrievals for Rayleigh-scatter, Ramanscatter and DIAL lidars.

  1. Comparative Analysis of Various Single-tone Frequency Estimation Techniques in High-order Instantaneous Moments Based Phase Estimation Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajshekhar, G.; Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

    2010-04-01

    For phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM) based method was recently developed which relies on piecewise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients using the HIM operator. A crucial step in the method is mapping the polynomial coefficient estimation to single-tone frequency determination for which various techniques exist. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of the HIM operator based method in using different single-tone frequency estimation techniques for phase estimation. The analysis is supplemented by simulation results.

  2. Methods for estimating low-flow statistics for Massachusetts streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G.; Friesz, Paul J.

    2000-01-01

    Methods and computer software are described in this report for determining flow duration, low-flow frequency statistics, and August median flows. These low-flow statistics can be estimated for unregulated streams in Massachusetts using different methods depending on whether the location of interest is at a streamgaging station, a low-flow partial-record station, or an ungaged site where no data are available. Low-flow statistics for streamgaging stations can be estimated using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods described in the report. The MOVE.1 mathematical method and a graphical correlation method can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations. The MOVE.1 method is recommended when the relation between measured flows at a partial-record station and daily mean flows at a nearby, hydrologically similar streamgaging station is linear, and the graphical method is recommended when the relation is curved. Equations are presented for computing the variance and equivalent years of record for estimates of low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations when either a single or multiple index stations are used to determine the estimates. The drainage-area ratio method or regression equations can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for ungaged sites where no data are available. The drainage-area ratio method is generally as accurate as or more accurate than regression estimates when the drainage-area ratio for an ungaged site is between 0.3 and 1.5 times the drainage area of the index data-collection site. Regression equations were developed to estimate the natural, long-term 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows; the 7-day, 2-year and the 7-day, 10-year low flows; and the August median flow for ungaged sites in Massachusetts. Streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for 87 to 133 streamgaging stations and low-flow partial-record stations were used to develop the equations. The

  3. Comparing Methods for Estimating Direct Costs of Adverse Drug Events.

    PubMed

    Gyllensten, Hanna; Jönsson, Anna K; Hakkarainen, Katja M; Svensson, Staffan; Hägg, Staffan; Rehnberg, Clas

    2017-12-01

    To estimate how direct health care costs resulting from adverse drug events (ADEs) and cost distribution are affected by methodological decisions regarding identification of ADEs, assigning relevant resource use to ADEs, and estimating costs for the assigned resources. ADEs were identified from medical records and diagnostic codes for a random sample of 4970 Swedish adults during a 3-month study period in 2008 and were assessed for causality. Results were compared for five cost evaluation methods, including different methods for identifying ADEs, assigning resource use to ADEs, and for estimating costs for the assigned resources (resource use method, proportion of registered cost method, unit cost method, diagnostic code method, and main diagnosis method). Different levels of causality for ADEs and ADEs' contribution to health care resource use were considered. Using the five methods, the maximum estimated overall direct health care costs resulting from ADEs ranged from Sk10,000 (Sk = Swedish krona; ~€1,500 in 2016 values) using the diagnostic code method to more than Sk3,000,000 (~€414,000) using the unit cost method in our study population. The most conservative definitions for ADEs' contribution to health care resource use and the causality of ADEs resulted in average costs per patient ranging from Sk0 using the diagnostic code method to Sk4066 (~€500) using the unit cost method. The estimated costs resulting from ADEs varied considerably depending on the methodological choices. The results indicate that costs for ADEs need to be identified through medical record review and by using detailed unit cost data. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A new class of methods for functional connectivity estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Wutu

    Measuring functional connectivity from neural recordings is important in understanding processing in cortical networks. The covariance-based methods are the current golden standard for functional connectivity estimation. However, the link between the pair-wise correlations and the physiological connections inside the neural network is unclear. Therefore, the power of inferring physiological basis from functional connectivity estimation is limited. To build a stronger tie and better understand the relationship between functional connectivity and physiological neural network, we need (1) a realistic model to simulate different types of neural recordings with known ground truth for benchmarking; (2) a new functional connectivity method that produce estimations closely reflecting the physiological basis. In this thesis, (1) I tune a spiking neural network model to match with human sleep EEG data, (2) introduce a new class of methods for estimating connectivity from different kinds of neural signals and provide theory proof for its superiority, (3) apply it to simulated fMRI data as an application.

  5. Simplified Computation for Nonparametric Windows Method of Probability Density Function Estimation.

    PubMed

    Joshi, Niranjan; Kadir, Timor; Brady, Michael

    2011-08-01

    Recently, Kadir and Brady proposed a method for estimating probability density functions (PDFs) for digital signals which they call the Nonparametric (NP) Windows method. The method involves constructing a continuous space representation of the discrete space and sampled signal by using a suitable interpolation method. NP Windows requires only a small number of observed signal samples to estimate the PDF and is completely data driven. In this short paper, we first develop analytical formulae to obtain the NP Windows PDF estimates for 1D, 2D, and 3D signals, for different interpolation methods. We then show that the original procedure to calculate the PDF estimate can be significantly simplified and made computationally more efficient by a judicious choice of the frame of reference. We have also outlined specific algorithmic details of the procedures enabling quick implementation. Our reformulation of the original concept has directly demonstrated a close link between the NP Windows method and the Kernel Density Estimator.

  6. Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, James D.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Talancy, Neil W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Gilbert, Andrew T.; Annand, Elizabeth M.; Husband, Thomas P.; Hines, James E.

    2008-01-01

    Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method.We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site.We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber. For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species.Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be

  7. Theoretical methods for estimating moments of inertia of trees and boles.

    Treesearch

    John A. Sturos

    1973-01-01

    Presents a theoretical method for estimating the mass moments of inertia of full trees and boles about a transverse axis. Estimates from the theoretical model compared closely with experimental data on aspen and red pine trees obtained in the field by the pendulum method. The theoretical method presented may be used to estimate the mass moments of inertia and other...

  8. A Method for Estimating Zero-Flow Pressure and Intracranial Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Caren, Marzban; Paul, Raymond Illian; David, Morison; Anne, Moore; Michel, Kliot; Marek, Czosnyka; Pierre, Mourad

    2012-01-01

    Background It has been hypothesized that critical closing pressure of cerebral circulation, or zero-flow pressure (ZFP), can estimate intracranial pressure (ICP). One ZFP estimation method employs extrapolation of arterial blood pressure versus blood-flow velocity. The aim of this study is to improve ICP predictions. Methods Two revisions are considered: 1) The linear model employed for extrapolation is extended to a nonlinear equation, and 2) the parameters of the model are estimated by an alternative criterion (not least-squares). The method is applied to data on transcranial Doppler measurements of blood-flow velocity, arterial blood pressure, and ICP, from 104 patients suffering from closed traumatic brain injury, sampled across the United States and England. Results The revisions lead to qualitative (e.g., precluding negative ICP) and quantitative improvements in ICP prediction. In going from the original to the revised method, the ±2 standard deviation of error is reduced from 33 to 24 mm Hg; the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) is reduced from 11 to 8.2 mm Hg. The distribution of RMSE is tighter as well; for the revised method the 25th and 75th percentiles are 4.1 and 13.7 mm Hg, respectively, as compared to 5.1 and 18.8 mm Hg for the original method. Conclusions Proposed alterations to a procedure for estimating ZFP lead to more accurate and more precise estimates of ICP, thereby offering improved means of estimating it noninvasively. The quality of the estimates is inadequate for many applications, but further work is proposed which may lead to clinically useful results. PMID:22824923

  9. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    DOE PAGES

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; ...

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulnessmore » of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (σ/E = 7 · 10⁻⁵) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (σ/E = 14 · 10⁻⁵).« less

  10. Time delay estimation using new spectral and adaptive filtering methods with applications to underwater target detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, Mohammed A.

    1997-11-01

    In this dissertation, we present several novel approaches for detection and identification of targets of arbitrary shapes from the acoustic backscattered data and using the incident waveform. This problem is formulated as time- delay estimation and sinusoidal frequency estimation problems which both have applications in many other important areas in signal processing. Solving time-delay estimation problem allows the identification of the specular components in the backscattered signal from elastic and non-elastic targets. Thus, accurate estimation of these time delays would help in determining the existence of certain clues for detecting targets. Several new methods for solving these two problems in the time, frequency and wavelet domains are developed. In the time domain, a new block fast transversal filter (BFTF) is proposed for a fast implementation of the least squares (LS) method. This BFTF algorithm is derived by using data-related constrained block-LS cost function to guarantee global optimality. The new soft-constrained algorithm provides an efficient way of transferring weight information between blocks of data and thus it is computationally very efficient compared with other LS- based schemes. Additionally, the tracking ability of the algorithm can be controlled by varying the block length and/or a soft constrained parameter. The effectiveness of this algorithm is tested on several underwater acoustic backscattered data for elastic targets and non-elastic (cement chunk) objects. In the frequency domain, the time-delay estimation problem is converted to a sinusoidal frequency estimation problem by using the discrete Fourier transform. Then, the lagged sample covariance matrices of the resulting signal are computed and studied in terms of their eigen- structure. These matrices are shown to be robust and effective in extracting bases for the signal and noise subspaces. New MUSIC and matrix pencil-based methods are derived these subspaces. The effectiveness

  11. A rotor-aerodynamics-based wind estimation method using a quadrotor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Yao; Luo, Bing; Meng, Qing-Hao

    2018-02-01

    Attempts to estimate horizontal wind by the quadrotor are reviewed. Wind estimations are realized by utilizing the quadrotor’s thrust change, which is caused by the wind’s effect on the rotors. The basis of the wind estimation method is the aerodynamic formula for the rotor’s thrust, which is verified and calibrated by experiments. A hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) system was built as a testbed; its dynamic model and control structure are demonstrated. Verification experiments on the HILS system proved that the wind estimation method was effective.

  12. Stock price estimation using ensemble Kalman Filter square root method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karya, D. F.; Katias, P.; Herlambang, T.

    2018-04-01

    Shares are securities as the possession or equity evidence of an individual or corporation over an enterprise, especially public companies whose activity is stock trading. Investment in stocks trading is most likely to be the option of investors as stocks trading offers attractive profits. In determining a choice of safe investment in the stocks, the investors require a way of assessing the stock prices to buy so as to help optimize their profits. An effective method of analysis which will reduce the risk the investors may bear is by predicting or estimating the stock price. Estimation is carried out as a problem sometimes can be solved by using previous information or data related or relevant to the problem. The contribution of this paper is that the estimates of stock prices in high, low, and close categorycan be utilized as investors’ consideration for decision making in investment. In this paper, stock price estimation was made by using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Square Root method (EnKF-SR) and Ensemble Kalman Filter method (EnKF). The simulation results showed that the resulted estimation by applying EnKF method was more accurate than that by the EnKF-SR, with an estimation error of about 0.2 % by EnKF and an estimation error of 2.6 % by EnKF-SR.

  13. Generalized shrunken type-GM estimator and its application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, C. Z.; Du, Y. L.

    2014-03-01

    The parameter estimation problem in linear model is considered when multicollinearity and outliers exist simultaneously. A class of new robust biased estimator, Generalized Shrunken Type-GM Estimation, with their calculated methods are established by combination of GM estimator and biased estimator include Ridge estimate, Principal components estimate and Liu estimate and so on. A numerical example shows that the most attractive advantage of these new estimators is that they can not only overcome the multicollinearity of coefficient matrix and outliers but also have the ability to control the influence of leverage points.

  14. An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the un-certainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

  15. Optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume in humans using the indocyanine green dilution method.

    PubMed

    Polidori, David; Rowley, Clarence

    2014-07-22

    The indocyanine green dilution method is one of the methods available to estimate plasma volume, although some researchers have questioned the accuracy of this method. We developed a new, physiologically based mathematical model of indocyanine green kinetics that more accurately represents indocyanine green kinetics during the first few minutes postinjection than what is assumed when using the traditional mono-exponential back-extrapolation method. The mathematical model is used to develop an optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume based on simulated indocyanine green kinetics obtained from the physiological model. Results from a clinical study using the indocyanine green dilution method in 36 subjects with type 2 diabetes indicate that the estimated plasma volumes are considerably lower when using the traditional back-extrapolation method than when using the proposed back-extrapolation method (mean (standard deviation) plasma volume = 26.8 (5.4) mL/kg for the traditional method vs 35.1 (7.0) mL/kg for the proposed method). The results obtained using the proposed method are more consistent with previously reported plasma volume values. Based on the more physiological representation of indocyanine green kinetics and greater consistency with previously reported plasma volume values, the new back-extrapolation method is proposed for use when estimating plasma volume using the indocyanine green dilution method.

  16. Improvement of Accuracy for Background Noise Estimation Method Based on TPE-AE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itai, Akitoshi; Yasukawa, Hiroshi

    This paper proposes a method of a background noise estimation based on the tensor product expansion with a median and a Monte carlo simulation. We have shown that a tensor product expansion with absolute error method is effective to estimate a background noise, however, a background noise might not be estimated by using conventional method properly. In this paper, it is shown that the estimate accuracy can be improved by using proposed methods.

  17. A bootstrap method for estimating uncertainty of water quality trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hirsch, Robert M.; Archfield, Stacey A.; DeCicco, Laura

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of the direction and magnitude of trends in surface water quality remains a problem of great scientific and practical interest. The Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method was recently introduced as an exploratory data analysis tool to provide flexible and robust estimates of water quality trends. This paper enhances the WRTDS method through the introduction of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT), an extension of WRTDS that quantifies the uncertainty in WRTDS-estimates of water quality trends and offers various ways to visualize and communicate these uncertainties. Monte Carlo experiments are applied to estimate the Type I error probabilities for this method. WBT is compared to other water-quality trend-testing methods appropriate for data sets of one to three decades in length with sampling frequencies of 6–24 observations per year. The software to conduct the test is in the EGRETci R-package.

  18. Estimating seat belt effectiveness using matched-pair cohort methods.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Peter; Wells, James D; Rivara, Frederick P

    2003-01-01

    Using US data for 1986-1998 fatal crashes, we employed matched-pair analysis methods to estimate that the relative risk of death among belted compared with unbelted occupants was 0.39 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-0.41). This differs from relative risk estimates of about 0.55 in studies that used crash data collected prior to 1986. Using 1975-1998 data, we examined and rejected three theories that might explain the difference between our estimate and older estimates: (1) differences in the analysis methods; (2) changes related to car model year; (3) changes in crash characteristics over time. A fourth theory, that the introduction of seat belt laws would induce some survivors to claim belt use when they were not restrained, could explain part of the difference in our estimate and older estimates; but even in states without seat belt laws, from 1986 through 1998, the relative risk estimate was 0.45 (95% CI 0.39-0.52). All of the difference between our estimate and older estimates could be explained by some misclassification of seat belt use. Relative risk estimates would move away from 1, toward their true value, if misclassification of both the belted and unbelted decreased over time, or if the degree of misclassification remained constant, as the prevalence of belt use increased. We conclude that estimates of seat belt effects based upon data prior to 1986 may be biased toward 1 by misclassification.

  19. Snijders's correction of Infit and Outfit indexes with estimated ability level: an analysis with the Rasch model.

    PubMed

    Magis, David; Beland, Sebastien; Raiche, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    The Infit mean square W and the Outfit mean square U are commonly used person fit indexes under Rasch measurement. However, they suffer from two major weaknesses. First, their asymptotic distribution is usually derived by assuming that the true ability levels are known. Second, such distributions are even not clearly stated for indexes U and W. Both issues can seriously affect the selection of an appropriate cut-score for person fit identification. Snijders (2001) proposed a general approach to correct some person fit indexes when specific ability estimators are used. The purpose of this paper is to adapt this approach to U and W indexes. First, a brief sketch of the methodology and its application to U and W is proposed. Then, the corrected indexes are compared to their classical versions through a simulation study. The suggested correction yields controlled Type I errors against both conservatism and inflation, while the power to detect specific misfitting response patterns gets significantly increased.

  20. Modeling an exhumed basin: A method for estimating eroded overburden

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poelchau, H.S.

    2001-01-01

    The Alberta Deep Basin in western Canada has undergone a large amount of erosion following deep burial in the Eocene. Basin modeling and simulation of burial and temperature history require estimates of maximum overburden for each gridpoint in the basin model. Erosion can be estimated using shale compaction trends. For instance, the widely used Magara method attempts to establish a sonic log gradient for shales and uses the extrapolation to a theoretical uncompacted shale value as a first indication of overcompaction and estimation of the amount of erosion. Because such gradients are difficult to establish in many wells, an extension of this method was devised to help map erosion over a large area. Sonic A; values of one suitable shale formation are calibrated with maximum depth of burial estimates from sonic log extrapolation for several wells. This resulting regression equation then can be used to estimate and map maximum depth of burial or amount of erosion for all wells in which this formation has been logged. The example from the Alberta Deep Basin shows that the magnitude of erosion calculated by this method is conservative and comparable to independent estimates using vitrinite reflectance gradient methods. ?? 2001 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  1. Study on Comparison of Bidding and Pricing Behavior Distinction between Estimate Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morimoto, Emi; Namerikawa, Susumu

    The most characteristic trend on bidding and pricing behavior distinction in recent years is the increasing number of bidders just above the criteria for low-price bidding investigations. The contractor's markup is the difference between the bidding price and the execution price. Therefore, the contractor's markup is the difference between criteria for low-price bidding investigations price and the execution price in the public works bid in Japan. Virtually, bidder's strategies and behavior have been controlled by public engineer's budgets. Estimation and bid are inseparably linked in the Japanese public works procurement system. The trial of the unit price-type estimation method begins in 2004. On another front, accumulated estimation method is one of the general methods in public works. So, there are two types of standard estimation methods in Japan. In this study, we did a statistical analysis on the bid information of civil engineering works for the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation in 2008. It presents several issues that bidding and pricing behavior is related to an estimation method (several estimation methods) for public works bid in Japan. The two types of standard estimation methods produce different results that number of bidders (decide on bid-no bid strategy) and distribution of bid price (decide on mark-up strategy).The comparison on the distribution of bid prices showed that the percentage of the bid concentrated on the criteria for low-price bidding investigations have had a tendency to get higher in the large-sized public works by the unit price-type estimation method, comparing with the accumulated estimation method. On one hand, the number of bidders who bids for public works estimated unit-price tends to increase significantly Public works estimated unit-price is likely to have been one of the factors for the construction companies to decide if they participate in the biddings.

  2. A different approach to estimate nonlinear regression model using numerical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Mokeshrayalu, G.; Balasiddamuni, P.

    2017-11-01

    This research paper concerns with the computational methods namely the Gauss-Newton method, Gradient algorithm methods (Newton-Raphson method, Steepest Descent or Steepest Ascent algorithm method, the Method of Scoring, the Method of Quadratic Hill-Climbing) based on numerical analysis to estimate parameters of nonlinear regression model in a very different way. Principles of matrix calculus have been used to discuss the Gradient-Algorithm methods. Yonathan Bard [1] discussed a comparison of gradient methods for the solution of nonlinear parameter estimation problems. However this article discusses an analytical approach to the gradient algorithm methods in a different way. This paper describes a new iterative technique namely Gauss-Newton method which differs from the iterative technique proposed by Gorden K. Smyth [2]. Hans Georg Bock et.al [10] proposed numerical methods for parameter estimation in DAE’s (Differential algebraic equation). Isabel Reis Dos Santos et al [11], Introduced weighted least squares procedure for estimating the unknown parameters of a nonlinear regression metamodel. For large-scale non smooth convex minimization the Hager and Zhang (HZ) conjugate gradient Method and the modified HZ (MHZ) method were presented by Gonglin Yuan et al [12].

  3. A new method for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Liu; He, Wen-Ping; Liao, Le-Jian; Wan, Shi-Quan; He, Tao

    2015-01-01

    Parameter estimation is an important scientific problem in various fields such as chaos control, chaos synchronization and other mathematical models. In this paper, a new method for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical equations is proposed based on evolutionary modelling (EM). This will be achieved by utilizing the following characteristics of EM which includes self-organizing, adaptive and self-learning features which are inspired by biological natural selection, and mutation and genetic inheritance. The performance of the new method is demonstrated by using various numerical tests on the classic chaos model—Lorenz equation (Lorenz 1963). The results indicate that the new method can be used for fast and effective parameter estimation irrespective of whether partial parameters or all parameters are unknown in the Lorenz equation. Moreover, the new method has a good convergence rate. Noises are inevitable in observational data. The influence of observational noises on the performance of the presented method has been investigated. The results indicate that the strong noises, such as signal noise ratio (SNR) of 10 dB, have a larger influence on parameter estimation than the relatively weak noises. However, it is found that the precision of the parameter estimation remains acceptable for the relatively weak noises, e.g. SNR is 20 or 30 dB. It indicates that the presented method also has some anti-noise performance.

  4. Proposal for a method to estimate nutrient shock effects in bacteria

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Plating methods are still the golden standard in microbiology; however, some studies have shown that these techniques can underestimate the microbial concentrations and diversity. A nutrient shock is one of the mechanisms proposed to explain this phenomenon. In this study, a tentative method to assess nutrient shock effects was tested. Findings To estimate the extent of nutrient shock effects, two strains isolated from tap water (Sphingomonas capsulata and Methylobacterium sp.) and two culture collection strains (E. coli CECT 434 and Pseudomonas fluorescens ATCC 13525) were exposed both to low and high nutrient conditions for different times and then placed in low nutrient medium (R2A) and rich nutrient medium (TSA). The average improvement (A.I.) of recovery between R2A and TSA for the different times was calculated to more simply assess the difference obtained in culturability between each medium. As expected, A.I. was higher when cells were plated after the exposition to water than when they were recovered from high-nutrient medium showing the existence of a nutrient shock for the diverse bacteria used. S. capsulata was the species most affected by this phenomenon. Conclusions This work provides a method to consistently determine the extent of nutrient shock effects on different microorganisms and hence quantify the ability of each species to deal with sudden increases in substrate concentration. PMID:22873690

  5. An aerial survey method to estimate sea otter abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, James L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Garner, Gerald W.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Laake, Jeffrey L.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Lyman L.; Robertson, Donna G.

    1999-01-01

    Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) occur in shallow coastal habitats and can be highly visible on the sea surface. They generally rest in groups and their detection depends on factors that include sea conditions, viewing platform, observer technique and skill, distance, habitat and group size. While visible on the surface, they are difficult to see while diving and may dive in response to an approaching survey platform. We developed and tested an aerial survey method that uses intensive searches within portions of strip transects to adjust for availability and sightability biases. Correction factors are estimated independently for each survey and observer. In tests of our method using shore-based observers, we estimated detection probabilities of 0.52-0.72 in standard strip-transects and 0.96 in intensive searches. We used the survey method in Prince William Sound, Alaska to estimate a sea otter population size of 9,092 (SE = 1422). The new method represents an improvement over various aspects of previous methods, but additional development and testing will be required prior to its broad application.

  6. Variational estimate method for solving autonomous ordinary differential equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mungkasi, Sudi

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a method for solving first-order autonomous ordinary differential equation problems using a variational estimate formulation. The variational estimate is constructed with a Lagrange multiplier which is chosen optimally, so that the formulation leads to an accurate solution to the problem. The variational estimate is an integral form, which can be computed using a computer software. As the variational estimate is an explicit formula, the solution is easy to compute. This is a great advantage of the variational estimate formulation.

  7. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

    PubMed

    Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

    2013-12-01

    Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume in humans using the indocyanine green dilution method

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The indocyanine green dilution method is one of the methods available to estimate plasma volume, although some researchers have questioned the accuracy of this method. Methods We developed a new, physiologically based mathematical model of indocyanine green kinetics that more accurately represents indocyanine green kinetics during the first few minutes postinjection than what is assumed when using the traditional mono-exponential back-extrapolation method. The mathematical model is used to develop an optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume based on simulated indocyanine green kinetics obtained from the physiological model. Results Results from a clinical study using the indocyanine green dilution method in 36 subjects with type 2 diabetes indicate that the estimated plasma volumes are considerably lower when using the traditional back-extrapolation method than when using the proposed back-extrapolation method (mean (standard deviation) plasma volume = 26.8 (5.4) mL/kg for the traditional method vs 35.1 (7.0) mL/kg for the proposed method). The results obtained using the proposed method are more consistent with previously reported plasma volume values. Conclusions Based on the more physiological representation of indocyanine green kinetics and greater consistency with previously reported plasma volume values, the new back-extrapolation method is proposed for use when estimating plasma volume using the indocyanine green dilution method. PMID:25052018

  9. Dual ant colony operational modal analysis parameter estimation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitarz, Piotr; Powałka, Bartosz

    2018-01-01

    Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) is a common technique used to examine the dynamic properties of a system. Contrary to experimental modal analysis, the input signal is generated in object ambient environment. Operational modal analysis mainly aims at determining the number of pole pairs and at estimating modal parameters. Many methods are used for parameter identification. Some methods operate in time while others in frequency domain. The former use correlation functions, the latter - spectral density functions. However, while some methods require the user to select poles from a stabilisation diagram, others try to automate the selection process. Dual ant colony operational modal analysis parameter estimation method (DAC-OMA) presents a new approach to the problem, avoiding issues involved in the stabilisation diagram. The presented algorithm is fully automated. It uses deterministic methods to define the interval of estimated parameters, thus reducing the problem to optimisation task which is conducted with dedicated software based on ant colony optimisation algorithm. The combination of deterministic methods restricting parameter intervals and artificial intelligence yields very good results, also for closely spaced modes and significantly varied mode shapes within one measurement point.

  10. A Comparison between Different Methods of Estimating Anaerobic Energy Production

    PubMed Central

    Andersson, Erik P.; McGawley, Kerry

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The present study aimed to compare four methods of estimating anaerobic energy production during supramaximal exercise. Methods: Twenty-one junior cross-country skiers competing at a national and/or international level were tested on a treadmill during uphill (7°) diagonal-stride (DS) roller-skiing. After a 4-minute warm-up, a 4 × 4-min continuous submaximal protocol was performed followed by a 600-m time trial (TT). For the maximal accumulated O2 deficit (MAOD) method the V.O2-speed regression relationship was used to estimate the V.O2 demand during the TT, either including (4+Y, method 1) or excluding (4-Y, method 2) a fixed Y-intercept for baseline V.O2. The gross efficiency (GE) method (method 3) involved calculating metabolic rate during the TT by dividing power output by submaximal GE, which was then converted to a V.O2 demand. An alternative method based on submaximal energy cost (EC, method 4) was also used to estimate V.O2 demand during the TT. Results: The GE/EC remained constant across the submaximal stages and the supramaximal TT was performed in 185 ± 24 s. The GE and EC methods produced identical V.O2 demands and O2 deficits. The V.O2 demand was ~3% lower for the 4+Y method compared with the 4-Y and GE/EC methods, with corresponding O2 deficits of 56 ± 10, 62 ± 10, and 63 ± 10 mL·kg−1, respectively (P < 0.05 for 4+Y vs. 4-Y and GE/EC). The mean differences between the estimated O2 deficits were −6 ± 5 mL·kg−1 (4+Y vs. 4-Y, P < 0.05), −7 ± 1 mL·kg−1 (4+Y vs. GE/EC, P < 0.05) and −1 ± 5 mL·kg−1 (4-Y vs. GE/EC), with respective typical errors of 5.3, 1.9, and 6.0%. The mean difference between the O2 deficit estimated with GE/EC based on the average of four submaximal stages compared with the last stage was 1 ± 2 mL·kg−1, with a typical error of 3.2%. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate a disagreement in the O2 deficits estimated using current methods. In addition, the findings suggest that a valid estimate of

  11. Comparison of mode estimation methods and application in molecular clock analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hedges, S. Blair; Shah, Prachi

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Distributions of time estimates in molecular clock studies are sometimes skewed or contain outliers. In those cases, the mode is a better estimator of the overall time of divergence than the mean or median. However, different methods are available for estimating the mode. We compared these methods in simulations to determine their strengths and weaknesses and further assessed their performance when applied to real data sets from a molecular clock study. RESULTS: We found that the half-range mode and robust parametric mode methods have a lower bias than other mode methods under a diversity of conditions. However, the half-range mode suffers from a relatively high variance and the robust parametric mode is more susceptible to bias by outliers. We determined that bootstrapping reduces the variance of both mode estimators. Application of the different methods to real data sets yielded results that were concordant with the simulations. CONCLUSION: Because the half-range mode is a simple and fast method, and produced less bias overall in our simulations, we recommend the bootstrapped version of it as a general-purpose mode estimator and suggest a bootstrap method for obtaining the standard error and 95% confidence interval of the mode.

  12. Estimating uncertainty in respondent-driven sampling using a tree bootstrap method.

    PubMed

    Baraff, Aaron J; McCormick, Tyler H; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-12-20

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a network-based form of chain-referral sampling used to estimate attributes of populations that are difficult to access using standard survey tools. Although it has grown quickly in popularity since its introduction, the statistical properties of RDS estimates remain elusive. In particular, the sampling variability of these estimates has been shown to be much higher than previously acknowledged, and even methods designed to account for RDS result in misleadingly narrow confidence intervals. In this paper, we introduce a tree bootstrap method for estimating uncertainty in RDS estimates based on resampling recruitment trees. We use simulations from known social networks to show that the tree bootstrap method not only outperforms existing methods but also captures the high variability of RDS, even in extreme cases with high design effects. We also apply the method to data from injecting drug users in Ukraine. Unlike other methods, the tree bootstrap depends only on the structure of the sampled recruitment trees, not on the attributes being measured on the respondents, so correlations between attributes can be estimated as well as variability. Our results suggest that it is possible to accurately assess the high level of uncertainty inherent in RDS.

  13. Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

    PubMed

    Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

    2015-08-01

    • Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  14. Improving Junior High School Students' Mathematical Analogical Ability Using Discovery Learning Method

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maarif, Samsul

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the influence of discovery learning method towards the mathematical analogical ability of junior high school's students. This is a research using factorial design 2x2 with ANOVA-Two ways. The population of this research included the entire students of SMPN 13 Jakarta (State Junior High School 13 of Jakarta)…

  15. Comparison of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors.

    PubMed

    Schommer, J C; Sullivan, D L; Wiederholt, J B

    1994-01-01

    To compare the rates reported for provision of types of information conveyed by pharmacists among studies for which different methods of estimation were used and different dispensing situations were studied. Empiric studies conducted in the US, reported from 1982 through 1992, were selected from International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, and noncomputerized sources. Empiric studies were selected for review if they reported the provision of at least three types of counseling information. Four components of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors were extracted and summarized in a table: (1) sample type and area, (2) sampling unit, (3) sample size, and (4) data collection method. In addition, situations that were investigated in each study were compiled. Twelve studies met our inclusion criteria. Patients were interviewed via telephone in four studies and were surveyed via mail in two studies. Pharmacists were interviewed via telephone in one study and surveyed via mail in two studies. For three studies, researchers visited pharmacy sites for data collection using the shopper method or observation method. Studies with similar methods and situations provided similar results. Data collected by using patient surveys, pharmacist surveys, and observation methods can provide useful estimations of pharmacist counseling behaviors if researchers measure counseling for specific, well-defined dispensing situations.

  16. Estimating Agricultural Water Use using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Evapotranspiration Estimation Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbes, B. T.

    2015-12-01

    Due to the predominantly arid climate in Arizona, access to adequate water supply is vital to the economic development and livelihood of the State. Water supply has become increasingly important during periods of prolonged drought, which has strained reservoir water levels in the Desert Southwest over past years. Arizona's water use is dominated by agriculture, consuming about seventy-five percent of the total annual water demand. Tracking current agricultural water use is important for managers and policy makers so that current water demand can be assessed and current information can be used to forecast future demands. However, many croplands in Arizona are irrigated outside of areas where water use reporting is mandatory. To estimate irrigation withdrawals on these lands, we use a combination of field verification, evapotranspiration (ET) estimation, and irrigation system qualification. ET is typically estimated in Arizona using the Modified Blaney-Criddle method which uses meteorological data to estimate annual crop water requirements. The Modified Blaney-Criddle method assumes crops are irrigated to their full potential over the entire growing season, which may or may not be realistic. We now use the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) ET data in a remote-sensing and energy-balance framework to estimate cropland ET. SSEBop data are of sufficient resolution (30m by 30m) for estimation of field-scale cropland water use. We evaluate our SSEBop-based estimates using ground-truth information and irrigation system qualification obtained in the field. Our approach gives the end user an estimate of crop consumptive use as well as inefficiencies in irrigation system performance—both of which are needed by water managers for tracking irrigated water use in Arizona.

  17. Shear wave speed estimation by adaptive random sample consensus method.

    PubMed

    Lin, Haoming; Wang, Tianfu; Chen, Siping

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a new method for shear wave velocity estimation that is capable of extruding outliers automatically without preset threshold. The proposed method is an adaptive random sample consensus (ARANDSAC) and the metric used here is finding the certain percentage of inliers according to the closest distance criterion. To evaluate the method, the simulation and phantom experiment results were compared using linear regression with all points (LRWAP) and radon sum transform (RS) method. The assessment reveals that the relative biases of mean estimation are 20.00%, 4.67% and 5.33% for LRWAP, ARANDSAC and RS respectively for simulation, 23.53%, 4.08% and 1.08% for phantom experiment. The results suggested that the proposed ARANDSAC algorithm is accurate in shear wave speed estimation.

  18. Methods for estimating missing human skeletal element osteometric dimensions employed in the revised fully technique for estimating stature.

    PubMed

    Auerbach, Benjamin M

    2011-05-01

    One of the greatest limitations to the application of the revised Fully anatomical stature estimation method is the inability to measure some of the skeletal elements required in its calculation. These element dimensions cannot be obtained due to taphonomic factors, incomplete excavation, or disease processes, and result in missing data. This study examines methods of imputing these missing dimensions using observable Fully measurements from the skeleton and the accuracy of incorporating these missing element estimations into anatomical stature reconstruction. These are further assessed against stature estimations obtained from mathematical regression formulae for the lower limb bones (femur and tibia). Two thousand seven hundred and seventeen North and South American indigenous skeletons were measured, and subsets of these with observable Fully dimensions were used to simulate missing elements and create estimation methods and equations. Comparisons were made directly between anatomically reconstructed statures and mathematically derived statures, as well as with anatomically derived statures with imputed missing dimensions. These analyses demonstrate that, while mathematical stature estimations are more accurate, anatomical statures incorporating missing dimensions are not appreciably less accurate and are more precise. The anatomical stature estimation method using imputed missing dimensions is supported. Missing element estimation, however, is limited to the vertebral column (only when lumbar vertebrae are present) and to talocalcaneal height (only when femora and tibiae are present). Crania, entire vertebral columns, and femoral or tibial lengths cannot be reliably estimated. Further discussion of the applicability of these methods is discussed. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  19. Haptic control with environment force estimation for telesurgery.

    PubMed

    Bhattacharjee, Tapomayukh; Son, Hyoung Il; Lee, Doo Yong

    2008-01-01

    Success of telesurgical operations depends on better position tracking ability of the slave device. Improved position tracking of the slave device can lead to safer and less strenuous telesurgical operations. The two-channel force-position control architecture is widely used for better position tracking ability. This architecture requires force sensors for direct force feedback. Force sensors may not be a good choice in the telesurgical environment because of the inherent noise, and limitation in the deployable place and space. Hence, environment force estimation is developed using the concept of the robot function parameter matrix and a recursive least squares method. Simulation results show efficacy of the proposed method. The slave device successfully tracks the position of the master device, and the estimation error quickly becomes negligible.

  20. A Monte Carlo Simulation Investigating the Validity and Reliability of Ability Estimation in Item Response Theory with Speeded Computer Adaptive Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmitt, T. A.; Sass, D. A.; Sullivan, J. R.; Walker, C. M.

    2010-01-01

    Imposed time limits on computer adaptive tests (CATs) can result in examinees having difficulty completing all items, thus compromising the validity and reliability of ability estimates. In this study, the effects of speededness were explored in a simulated CAT environment by varying examinee response patterns to end-of-test items. Expectedly,…

  1. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1988-01-01

    Parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase are developed. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance, and time. The relationship between weight and cost is examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested statistically against a historical data base of major research and development programs. It is concluded that the technique presented is sound, but that it must be refined in order to produce acceptable cost estimates.

  2. Stability and error estimation for Component Adaptive Grid methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oliger, Joseph; Zhu, Xiaolei

    1994-01-01

    Component adaptive grid (CAG) methods for solving hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDE's) are discussed in this paper. Applying recent stability results for a class of numerical methods on uniform grids. The convergence of these methods for linear problems on component adaptive grids is established here. Furthermore, the computational error can be estimated on CAG's using the stability results. Using these estimates, the error can be controlled on CAG's. Thus, the solution can be computed efficiently on CAG's within a given error tolerance. Computational results for time dependent linear problems in one and two space dimensions are presented.

  3. Guidebook on Methods to Estimate Non-Motorized Travel : Overview of Methods

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-07-01

    This guidebook provides a means for practitioner to better understand and estimate bicycle and pedestrian travel and to address transportation planning needs. The guidebook describes and compares the various methods that can be used to forecast non-m...

  4. Methods for estimating expected blood alcohol concentration

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1980-08-01

    Estimates of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) typically are based on the amount of alcohol consumed per pound bodyweight. This method fails to consider either food intake or body composition, factors which significantly affect BAC. A laboratory expe...

  5. The Equivalence of Two Methods of Parameter Estimation for the Rasch Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackwood, Larry G.; Bradley, Edwin L.

    1989-01-01

    Two methods of estimating parameters in the Rasch model are compared. The equivalence of likelihood estimations from the model of G. J. Mellenbergh and P. Vijn (1981) and from usual unconditional maximum likelihood (UML) estimation is demonstrated. Mellenbergh and Vijn's model is a convenient method of calculating UML estimates. (SLD)

  6. Methods for estimating expected blood alcohol concentration.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1980-12-01

    Estimates of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) typically are based on the amount of alcohol consumed per pound body weight. This method fails to consider food intake and body composition, which significantly affect BAC. A laboratory experiment was co...

  7. Estimation of railroad capacity using parametric methods.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-12-01

    This paper reviews different methodologies used for railroad capacity estimation and presents a user-friendly method to measure capacity. The objective of this paper is to use multivariate regression analysis to develop a continuous relation of the d...

  8. Estimation Of Rheological Law By Inverse Method From Flow And Temperature Measurements With An Extrusion Die

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pujos, Cyril; Regnier, Nicolas; Mousseau, Pierre; Defaye, Guy; Jarny, Yvon

    2007-05-01

    Simulation quality is determined by the knowledge of the parameters of the model. Yet the rheological models for polymer are often not very accurate, since the viscosity measurements are made under approximations as homogeneous temperature and empirical corrections as Bagley one. Furthermore rheological behaviors are often traduced by mathematical laws as the Cross or the Carreau-Yasuda ones, whose parameters are fitted from viscosity values, obtained with corrected experimental data, and not appropriate for each polymer. To correct these defaults, a table-like rheological model is proposed. This choice makes easier the estimation of model parameters, since each parameter has the same order of magnitude. As the mathematical shape of the model is not imposed, the estimation process is appropriate for each polymer. The proposed method consists in minimizing the quadratic norm of the difference between calculated variables and measured data. In this study an extrusion die is simulated, in order to provide us temperature along the extrusion channel, pressure and flow references. These data allow to characterize thermal transfers and flow phenomena, in which the viscosity is implied. Furthermore the different natures of data allow to estimate viscosity for a large range of shear rates. The estimated rheological model improves the agreement between measurements and simulation: for numerical cases, the error on the flow becomes less than 0.1% for non-Newtonian rheology. This method couples measurements and simulation, constitutes a very accurate mean of rheology determination, and allows to improve the prediction abilities of the model.

  9. Testing an automated method to estimate ground-water recharge from streamflow records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rutledge, A.T.; Daniel, C.C.

    1994-01-01

    The computer program, RORA, allows automated analysis of streamflow hydrographs to estimate ground-water recharge. Output from the program, which is based on the recession-curve-displacement method (often referred to as the Rorabaugh method, for whom the program is named), was compared to estimates of recharge obtained from a manual analysis of 156 years of streamflow record from 15 streamflow-gaging stations in the eastern United States. Statistical tests showed that there was no significant difference between paired estimates of annual recharge by the two methods. Tests of results produced by the four workers who performed the manual method showed that results can differ significantly between workers. Twenty-two percent of the variation between manual and automated estimates could be attributed to having different workers perform the manual method. The program RORA will produce estimates of recharge equivalent to estimates produced manually, greatly increase the speed od analysis, and reduce the subjectivity inherent in manual analysis.

  10. The effectiveness of module based on guided inquiry method to improve students’ logical thinking ability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ash-Shiddieqy, M. H.; Suparmi, A.; Sunarno, W.

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this research is to understand the effectiveness of module based on guided inquiry method to improve students’ logical thinking ability. This research only evaluate the students’ logical ability after follows the learning activities that used developed physics module based on guided inquiry method. After the learning activities, students This research method uses a test instrument that adapts TOLT instrument. There are samples of 68 students of grade XI taken from SMA Negeri 4 Surakarta.Based on the results of the research can be seen that in the experimental class and control class, the posttest value aspect of probabilistic reasoning has the highest value than other aspects, whereas the posttest value of the proportional reasoning aspect has the lowest value. The average value of N-gain in the experimental class is 0.39, while in the control class is 0.30. Nevertheless, the N-gain values obtained in the experimental class are larger than the control class, so the guided inquiry-based module is considered more effective for improving students’ logical thinking. Based on the data obtained from the research shows the modules available to help teachers and students in learning activities. The developed Physics module is integrated with every syntax present in guided inquiry method, so it can be used to improve students’ logical thinking ability.

  11. Benchmarking Foot Trajectory Estimation Methods for Mobile Gait Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ollenschläger, Malte; Roth, Nils; Klucken, Jochen

    2017-01-01

    Mobile gait analysis systems based on inertial sensing on the shoe are applied in a wide range of applications. Especially for medical applications, they can give new insights into motor impairment in, e.g., neurodegenerative disease and help objectify patient assessment. One key component in these systems is the reconstruction of the foot trajectories from inertial data. In literature, various methods for this task have been proposed. However, performance is evaluated on a variety of datasets due to the lack of large, generally accepted benchmark datasets. This hinders a fair comparison of methods. In this work, we implement three orientation estimation and three double integration schemes for use in a foot trajectory estimation pipeline. All methods are drawn from literature and evaluated against a marker-based motion capture reference. We provide a fair comparison on the same dataset consisting of 735 strides from 16 healthy subjects. As a result, the implemented methods are ranked and we identify the most suitable processing pipeline for foot trajectory estimation in the context of mobile gait analysis. PMID:28832511

  12. A comparison study of size-specific dose estimate calculation methods.

    PubMed

    Parikh, Roshni A; Wien, Michael A; Novak, Ronald D; Jordan, David W; Klahr, Paul; Soriano, Stephanie; Ciancibello, Leslie; Berlin, Sheila C

    2018-01-01

    The size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) has emerged as an improved metric for use by medical physicists and radiologists for estimating individual patient dose. Several methods of calculating SSDE have been described, ranging from patient thickness or attenuation-based (automated and manual) measurements to weight-based techniques. To compare the accuracy of thickness vs. weight measurement of body size to allow for the calculation of the size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) in pediatric body CT. We retrospectively identified 109 pediatric body CT examinations for SSDE calculation. We examined two automated methods measuring a series of level-specific diameters of the patient's body: method A used the effective diameter and method B used the water-equivalent diameter. Two manual methods measured patient diameter at two predetermined levels: the superior endplate of L2, where body width is typically most thin, and the superior femoral head or iliac crest (for scans that did not include the pelvis), where body width is typically most thick; method C averaged lateral measurements at these two levels from the CT projection scan, and method D averaged lateral and anteroposterior measurements at the same two levels from the axial CT images. Finally, we used body weight to characterize patient size, method E, and compared this with the various other measurement methods. Methods were compared across the entire population as well as by subgroup based on body width. Concordance correlation (ρ c ) between each of the SSDE calculation methods (methods A-E) was greater than 0.92 across the entire population, although the range was wider when analyzed by subgroup (0.42-0.99). When we compared each SSDE measurement method with CTDI vol, there was poor correlation, ρ c <0.77, with percentage differences between 20.8% and 51.0%. Automated computer algorithms are accurate and efficient in the calculation of SSDE. Manual methods based on patient thickness provide acceptable dose

  13. Nonparametric methods for drought severity estimation at ungauged sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadri, S.; Burn, D. H.

    2012-12-01

    The objective in frequency analysis is, given extreme events such as drought severity or duration, to estimate the relationship between that event and the associated return periods at a catchment. Neural networks and other artificial intelligence approaches in function estimation and regression analysis are relatively new techniques in engineering, providing an attractive alternative to traditional statistical models. There are, however, few applications of neural networks and support vector machines in the area of severity quantile estimation for drought frequency analysis. In this paper, we compare three methods for this task: multiple linear regression, radial basis function neural networks, and least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR). The area selected for this study includes 32 catchments in the Canadian Prairies. From each catchment drought severities are extracted and fitted to a Pearson type III distribution, which act as observed values. For each method-duration pair, we use a jackknife algorithm to produce estimated values at each site. The results from these three approaches are compared and analyzed, and it is found that LS-SVR provides the best quantile estimates and extrapolating capacity.

  14. Comprehensive vulnerability assessment method for nodes considering anti-interference ability and influence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; FENG, Hao; LIU, Meijun

    2018-03-01

    The vulnerability assessment of power grid is of great significance in the current research. Power system faces many kinds of uncertainty factors, and the disturbance caused by them has become one of the main factors which restrict the safe operation of power grid. To solve this problem, considering the anti-interference ability of the system when the system is disturbed and the effect of the system when the node is out of operation, a set of index to reflect the anti-interference ability and the influence of nodes are set up. On this basis, a new comprehensive vulnerability assessment method of nodes is put forward by using super efficiency data envelopment analysis to scientific integration. Finally, the simulative results of IEEE30-bus system indicated that the proposed model is rational and valid.

  15. Optical Method for Estimating the Chlorophyll Contents in Plant Leaves.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Patricio, Madaín; Camas-Anzueto, Jorge Luis; Sanchez-Alegría, Avisaí; Aguilar-González, Abiel; Gutiérrez-Miceli, Federico; Escobar-Gómez, Elías; Voisin, Yvon; Rios-Rojas, Carlos; Grajales-Coutiño, Ruben

    2018-02-22

    This work introduces a new vision-based approach for estimating chlorophyll contents in a plant leaf using reflectance and transmittance as base parameters. Images of the top and underside of the leaf are captured. To estimate the base parameters (reflectance/transmittance), a novel optical arrangement is proposed. The chlorophyll content is then estimated by using linear regression where the inputs are the reflectance and transmittance of the leaf. Performance of the proposed method for chlorophyll content estimation was compared with a spectrophotometer and a Soil Plant Analysis Development (SPAD) meter. Chlorophyll content estimation was realized for Lactuca sativa L., Azadirachta indica , Canavalia ensiforme , and Lycopersicon esculentum . Experimental results showed that-in terms of accuracy and processing speed-the proposed algorithm outperformed many of the previous vision-based approach methods that have used SPAD as a reference device. On the other hand, the accuracy reached is 91% for crops such as Azadirachta indica , where the chlorophyll value was obtained using the spectrophotometer. Additionally, it was possible to achieve an estimation of the chlorophyll content in the leaf every 200 ms with a low-cost camera and a simple optical arrangement. This non-destructive method increased accuracy in the chlorophyll content estimation by using an optical arrangement that yielded both the reflectance and transmittance information, while the required hardware is cheap.

  16. Application of the Combination Approach for Estimating Evapotranspiration in Puerto Rico

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmsen, Eric; Luvall, Jeffrey; Gonzalez, Jorge

    2005-01-01

    The ability to estimate short-term fluxes of water vapor from the land surface is important for validating latent heat flux estimates from high resolution remote sensing techniques. A new, relatively inexpensive method is presented for estimating t h e ground-based values of the surface latent heat flux or evapotranspiration.

  17. Dual respiratory and cardiac motion estimation in PET imaging: Methods design and quantitative evaluation.

    PubMed

    Feng, Tao; Wang, Jizhe; Tsui, Benjamin M W

    2018-04-01

    The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate four post-reconstruction respiratory and cardiac (R&C) motion vector field (MVF) estimation methods for cardiac 4D PET data. In Method 1, the dual R&C motions were estimated directly from the dual R&C gated images. In Method 2, respiratory motion (RM) and cardiac motion (CM) were separately estimated from the respiratory gated only and cardiac gated only images. The effects of RM on CM estimation were modeled in Method 3 by applying an image-based RM correction on the cardiac gated images before CM estimation, the effects of CM on RM estimation were neglected. Method 4 iteratively models the mutual effects of RM and CM during dual R&C motion estimations. Realistic simulation data were generated for quantitative evaluation of four methods. Almost noise-free PET projection data were generated from the 4D XCAT phantom with realistic R&C MVF using Monte Carlo simulation. Poisson noise was added to the scaled projection data to generate additional datasets of two more different noise levels. All the projection data were reconstructed using a 4D image reconstruction method to obtain dual R&C gated images. The four dual R&C MVF estimation methods were applied to the dual R&C gated images and the accuracy of motion estimation was quantitatively evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimated MVFs. Results show that among the four estimation methods, Methods 2 performed the worst for noise-free case while Method 1 performed the worst for noisy cases in terms of quantitative accuracy of the estimated MVF. Methods 4 and 3 showed comparable results and achieved RMSE lower by up to 35% than that in Method 1 for noisy cases. In conclusion, we have developed and evaluated 4 different post-reconstruction R&C MVF estimation methods for use in 4D PET imaging. Comparison of the performance of four methods on simulated data indicates separate R&C estimation with modeling of RM before CM estimation (Method 3) to be

  18. Vegetation index methods for estimating evapotranspiration by remote sensing

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glenn, Edward P.; Nagler, Pamela L.; Huete, Alfredo R.

    2010-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest term after precipitation in terrestrial water budgets. Accurate estimates of ET are needed for numerous agricultural and natural resource management tasks and to project changes in hydrological cycles due to potential climate change. We explore recent methods that combine vegetation indices (VI) from satellites with ground measurements of actual ET (ETa) and meteorological data to project ETa over a wide range of biome types and scales of measurement, from local to global estimates. The majority of these use time-series imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on the Terra satellite to project ET over seasons and years. The review explores the theoretical basis for the methods, the types of ancillary data needed, and their accuracy and limitations. Coefficients of determination between modeled ETa and measured ETa are in the range of 0.45–0.95, and root mean square errors are in the range of 10–30% of mean ETa values across biomes, similar to methods that use thermal infrared bands to estimate ETa and within the range of accuracy of the ground measurements by which they are calibrated or validated. The advent of frequent-return satellites such as Terra and planed replacement platforms, and the increasing number of moisture and carbon flux tower sites over the globe, have made these methods feasible. Examples of operational algorithms for ET in agricultural and natural ecosystems are presented. The goal of the review is to enable potential end-users from different disciplines to adapt these methods to new applications that require spatially-distributed ET estimates.

  19. Simple method for quick estimation of aquifer hydrogeological parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, C.; Li, Y. Y.

    2017-08-01

    Development of simple and accurate methods to determine the aquifer hydrogeological parameters was of importance for groundwater resources assessment and management. Aiming at the present issue of estimating aquifer parameters based on some data of the unsteady pumping test, a fitting function of Theis well function was proposed using fitting optimization method and then a unitary linear regression equation was established. The aquifer parameters could be obtained by solving coefficients of the regression equation. The application of the proposed method was illustrated, using two published data sets. By the error statistics and analysis on the pumping drawdown, it showed that the method proposed in this paper yielded quick and accurate estimates of the aquifer parameters. The proposed method could reliably identify the aquifer parameters from long distance observed drawdowns and early drawdowns. It was hoped that the proposed method in this paper would be helpful for practicing hydrogeologists and hydrologists.

  20. Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Miller, Eric; Konan, Arnaud; Duran, Adam

    2017-03-28

    Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the currentmore » state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.« less

  1. A Reconstruction Method for the Estimation of Temperatures of Multiple Sources Applied for Nanoparticle-Mediated Hyperthermia.

    PubMed

    Steinberg, Idan; Tamir, Gil; Gannot, Israel

    2018-03-16

    Solid malignant tumors are one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Many times complete removal is not possible and alternative methods such as focused hyperthermia are used. Precise control of the hyperthermia process is imperative for the successful application of such treatment. To that end, this research presents a fast method that enables the estimation of deep tissue heat distribution by capturing and processing the transient temperature at the boundary based on a bio-heat transfer model. The theoretical model is rigorously developed and thoroughly validated by a series of experiments. A 10-fold improvement is demonstrated in resolution and visibility on tissue mimicking phantoms. The inverse problem is demonstrated as well with a successful application of the model for imaging deep-tissue embedded heat sources. Thereby, allowing the physician then ability to dynamically evaluate the hyperthermia treatment efficiency in real time.

  2. [Comparison of three stand-level biomass estimation methods].

    PubMed

    Dong, Li Hu; Li, Feng Ri

    2016-12-01

    At present, the forest biomass methods of regional scale attract most of attention of the researchers, and developing the stand-level biomass model is popular. Based on the forestry inventory data of larch plantation (Larix olgensis) in Jilin Province, we used non-linear seemly unrelated regression (NSUR) to estimate the parameters in two additive system of stand-level biomass equations, i.e., stand-level biomass equations including the stand variables and stand biomass equations including the biomass expansion factor (i.e., Model system 1 and Model system 2), listed the constant biomass expansion factor for larch plantation and compared the prediction accuracy of three stand-level biomass estimation methods. The results indicated that for two additive system of biomass equations, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) of the total and stem equations was more than 0.95, the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean prediction error (MPE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were smaller. The branch and foliage biomass equations were worse than total and stem biomass equations, and the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) was less than 0.95. The prediction accuracy of a constant biomass expansion factor was relatively lower than the prediction accuracy of Model system 1 and Model system 2. Overall, although stand-level biomass equation including the biomass expansion factor belonged to the volume-derived biomass estimation method, and was different from the stand biomass equations including stand variables in essence, but the obtained prediction accuracy of the two methods was similar. The constant biomass expansion factor had the lower prediction accuracy, and was inappropriate. In addition, in order to make the model parameter estimation more effective, the established stand-level biomass equations should consider the additivity in a system of all tree component biomass and total biomass equations.

  3. Comparison of GPS receiver DCB estimation methods using a GPS network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Byung-Kyu; Park, Jong-Uk; Min Roh, Kyoung; Lee, Sang-Jeong

    2013-07-01

    Two approaches for receiver differential code biases (DCB) estimation using the GPS data obtained from the Korean GPS network (KGN) in South Korea are suggested: the relative and single (absolute) methods. The relative method uses a GPS network, while the single method determines DCBs from a single station only. Their performance was assessed by comparing the receiver DCB values obtained from the relative method with those estimated by the single method. The daily averaged receiver DCBs obtained from the two different approaches showed good agreement for 7 days. The root mean square (RMS) value of those differences is 0.83 nanoseconds (ns). The standard deviation of the receiver DCBs estimated by the relative method was smaller than that of the single method. From these results, it is clear that the relative method can obtain more stable receiver DCBs compared with the single method over a short-term period. Additionally, the comparison between the receiver DCBs obtained by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) and those of the IGS Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) showed a good agreement at 0.3 ns. As the accuracy of DCB values significantly affects the accuracy of ionospheric total electron content (TEC), more studies are needed to ensure the reliability and stability of the estimated receiver DCBs.

  4. Measuring landscape esthetics: the scenic beauty estimation method

    Treesearch

    Terry C. Daniel; Ron S. Boster

    1976-01-01

    The Scenic Beauty Estimation Method (SBE) provides quantitative measures of esthetic preferences for alternative wildland management systems. Extensive experimentation and testing with user, interest, and professional groups validated the method. SBE shows promise as an efficient and objective means for assessing the scenic beauty of public forests and wildlands, and...

  5. Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Sudhir; Hedges, S Blair

    2016-04-01

    Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data

  6. Improving the S-Shape Solar Radiation Estimation Method for Supporting Crop Models

    PubMed Central

    Fodor, Nándor

    2012-01-01

    In line with the critical comments formulated in relation to the S-shape global solar radiation estimation method, the original formula was improved via a 5-step procedure. The improved method was compared to four-reference methods on a large North-American database. According to the investigated error indicators, the final 7-parameter S-shape method has the same or even better estimation efficiency than the original formula. The improved formula is able to provide radiation estimates with a particularly low error pattern index (PIdoy) which is especially important concerning the usability of the estimated radiation values in crop models. Using site-specific calibration, the radiation estimates of the improved S-shape method caused an average of 2.72 ± 1.02 (α = 0.05) relative error in the calculated biomass. Using only readily available site specific metadata the radiation estimates caused less than 5% relative error in the crop model calculations when they were used for locations in the middle, plain territories of the USA. PMID:22645451

  7. Efficient Methods of Estimating Switchgrass Biomass Supplies

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is being developed as a biofuel feedstock for the United States. Efficient and accurate methods to estimate switchgrass biomass feedstock supply within a production area will be required by biorefineries. Our main objective was to determine the effectiveness of in...

  8. Methods of albumin estimation in clinical biochemistry: Past, present, and future.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Deepak; Banerjee, Dibyajyoti

    2017-06-01

    Estimation of serum and urinary albumin is routinely performed in clinical biochemistry laboratories. In the past, precipitation-based methods were popular for estimation of human serum albumin (HSA). Currently, dye-binding or immunochemical methods are widely practiced. Each of these methods has its limitations. Research endeavors to overcome such limitations are on-going. The current trends in methodological aspects of albumin estimation guiding the field have not been reviewed. Therefore, it is the need of the hour to review several aspects of albumin estimation. The present review focuses on the modern trends of research from a conceptual point of view and gives an overview of recent developments to offer the readers a comprehensive understanding of the subject. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimation of work capacity and work ability among plantation workers in South India.

    PubMed

    Anbazhagan, Suguna; Ramesh, Naveen; Surekha, A; Fathima, Farah N; Melina; Anjali

    2016-01-01

    Work capacity is the ability to perform real physical work, and work ability is a result of interaction of worker to his or her work that is how good a worker is at present, in near future, and how able is he or she to do his or her work with respect to work demands and health and mental resources. To assess the work capacity and work ability and to study the factors associated with work capacity and work ability of workers at a tea plantation in South India. A cross-sectional study was conducted at a tea plantation in Annamalai, South India, from March to May 2015. Data were collected using a structured interview schedule comprising of three parts as follows: sociodemographic data, work ability questionnaire, and work capacity assessment. Of the 199 subjects participated in the study, majority [90 (45.3%)] were in the age group of 46-55 years, and 128 (64.3%) were females. Of the 199 workers, 12.6% had poor aerobic capacity (by Harvard Step test), 88.4% had an endurance of more than 1 h, 70.9% had better work productivity and energetic efficiency, and the voluntary activity workers spent most time on household chores. Of the 199 workers assessed, only 9.6% had good work ability. There is negative correlation between work ability and body mass index (BMI). Our study found 12.6% workers with poor aerobic capacity and 9.6% of workers with good work ability. Periodic health examinations and other screening procedures should be made as routine in workplace to improve work ability and capacity.

  10. Estimating basin scale evapotranspiration (ET) by water balance and remote sensing methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Senay, G.B.; Leake, S.; Nagler, P.L.; Artan, G.; Dickinson, J.; Cordova, J.T.; Glenn, E.P.

    2011-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important hydrological process that can be studied and estimated at multiple spatial scales ranging from a leaf to a river basin. We present a review of methods in estimating basin scale ET and its applications in understanding basin water balance dynamics. The review focuses on two aspects of ET: (i) how the basin scale water balance approach is used to estimate ET; and (ii) how ‘direct’ measurement and modelling approaches are used to estimate basin scale ET. Obviously, the basin water balance-based ET requires the availability of good precipitation and discharge data to calculate ET as a residual on longer time scales (annual) where net storage changes are assumed to be negligible. ET estimated from such a basin water balance principle is generally used for validating the performance of ET models. On the other hand, many of the direct estimation methods involve the use of remotely sensed data to estimate spatially explicit ET and use basin-wide averaging to estimate basin scale ET. The direct methods can be grouped into soil moisture balance modelling, satellite-based vegetation index methods, and methods based on satellite land surface temperature measurements that convert potential ET into actual ET using a proportionality relationship. The review also includes the use of complementary ET estimation principles for large area applications. The review identifies the need to compare and evaluate the different ET approaches using standard data sets in basins covering different hydro-climatic regions of the world.

  11. Evapotranspiration: Mass balance measurements compared with flux estimation methods

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Evapotranspiration (ET) may be measured by mass balance methods and estimated by flux sensing methods. The mass balance methods are typically restricted in terms of the area that can be represented (e.g., surface area of weighing lysimeter (LYS) or equivalent representative area of neutron probe (NP...

  12. Comparison of several methods for estimating low speed stability derivatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fletcher, H. S.

    1971-01-01

    Methods presented in five different publications have been used to estimate the low-speed stability derivatives of two unpowered airplane configurations. One configuration had unswept lifting surfaces, the other configuration was the D-558-II swept-wing research airplane. The results of the computations were compared with each other, with existing wind-tunnel data, and with flight-test data for the D-558-II configuration to assess the relative merits of the methods for estimating derivatives. The results of the study indicated that, in general, for low subsonic speeds, no one text appeared consistently better for estimating all derivatives.

  13. The contribution of general cognitive abilities and number abilities to different aspects of mathematics in children.

    PubMed

    Träff, Ulf

    2013-10-01

    This study examined the relative contributions of general cognitive abilities and number abilities to word problem solving, calculation, and arithmetic fact retrieval in a sample of 134 children aged 10 to 13 years. The following tasks were administered: listening span, visual matrix span, verbal fluency, color naming, Raven's Progressive Matrices, enumeration, number line estimation, and digit comparison. Hierarchical multiple regressions demonstrated that number abilities provided an independent contribution to fact retrieval and word problem solving. General cognitive abilities contributed to problem solving and calculation. All three number tasks accounted for a similar amount of variance in fact retrieval, whereas only the number line estimation task contributed unique variance in word problem solving. Verbal fluency and Raven's matrices accounted for an equal amount of variance in problem solving and calculation. The current findings demonstrate, in accordance with Fuchs and colleagues' developmental model of mathematical learning (Developmental Psychology, 2010, Vol. 46, pp. 1731-1746), that both number abilities and general cognitive abilities underlie 10- to 13-year-olds' proficiency in problem solving, whereas only number abilities underlie arithmetic fact retrieval. Thus, the amount and type of cognitive contribution to arithmetic proficiency varies between the different aspects of arithmetic. Furthermore, how closely linked a specific aspect of arithmetic is to the whole number representation systems is not the only factor determining the amount and type of cognitive contribution in 10- to 13-year-olds. In addition, the mathematical complexity of the task appears to influence the amount and type of cognitive support. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1994-01-01

    NASA is responsible for developing much of the nation's future space technology. Cost estimates for new programs are required early in the planning process so that decisions can be made accurately. Because of the long lead times required to develop space hardware, the cost estimates are frequently required 10 to 15 years before the program delivers hardware. The system design in conceptual phases of a program is usually only vaguely defined and the technology used is so often state-of-the-art or beyond. These factors combine to make cost estimating for conceptual programs very challenging. This paper describes an effort to develop parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance and time. The nature of the relationships between the driver variables and cost will be discussed. In particular, the relationship between weight and cost will be examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost will be developed and tested statistically against a historical database of major research and development projects.

  15. Quantifying Accurate Calorie Estimation Using the "Think Aloud" Method

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holmstrup, Michael E.; Stearns-Bruening, Kay; Rozelle, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Clients often have limited time in a nutrition education setting. An improved understanding of the strategies used to accurately estimate calories may help to identify areas of focused instruction to improve nutrition knowledge. Methods: A "Think Aloud" exercise was recorded during the estimation of calories in a standard dinner meal…

  16. Five Methods for Estimating Angoff Cut Scores with IRT

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyse, Adam E.

    2017-01-01

    This article illustrates five different methods for estimating Angoff cut scores using item response theory (IRT) models. These include maximum likelihood (ML), expected a priori (EAP), modal a priori (MAP), and weighted maximum likelihood (WML) estimators, as well as the most commonly used approach based on translating ratings through the test…

  17. The estimation of the measurement results with using statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velychko, O.; Gordiyenko, T.

    2015-02-01

    The row of international standards and guides describe various statistical methods that apply for a management, control and improvement of processes with the purpose of realization of analysis of the technical measurement results. The analysis of international standards and guides on statistical methods estimation of the measurement results recommendations for those applications in laboratories is described. For realization of analysis of standards and guides the cause-and-effect Ishikawa diagrams concerting to application of statistical methods for estimation of the measurement results are constructed.

  18. Estimating the remaining useful life of bearings using a neuro-local linear estimator-based method.

    PubMed

    Ahmad, Wasim; Ali Khan, Sheraz; Kim, Jong-Myon

    2017-05-01

    Estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a bearing is required for maintenance scheduling. While the degradation behavior of a bearing changes during its lifetime, it is usually assumed to follow a single model. In this letter, bearing degradation is modeled by a monotonically increasing function that is globally non-linear and locally linearized. The model is generated using historical data that is smoothed with a local linear estimator. A neural network learns this model and then predicts future levels of vibration acceleration to estimate the RUL of a bearing. The proposed method yields reasonably accurate estimates of the RUL of a bearing at different points during its operational life.

  19. Power system frequency estimation based on an orthogonal decomposition method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Chih-Hung; Tsai, Men-Shen

    2018-06-01

    In recent years, several frequency estimation techniques have been proposed by which to estimate the frequency variations in power systems. In order to properly identify power quality issues under asynchronously-sampled signals that are contaminated with noise, flicker, and harmonic and inter-harmonic components, a good frequency estimator that is able to estimate the frequency as well as the rate of frequency changes precisely is needed. However, accurately estimating the fundamental frequency becomes a very difficult task without a priori information about the sampling frequency. In this paper, a better frequency evaluation scheme for power systems is proposed. This method employs a reconstruction technique in combination with orthogonal filters, which may maintain the required frequency characteristics of the orthogonal filters and improve the overall efficiency of power system monitoring through two-stage sliding discrete Fourier transforms. The results showed that this method can accurately estimate the power system frequency under different conditions, including asynchronously sampled signals contaminated by noise, flicker, and harmonic and inter-harmonic components. The proposed approach also provides high computational efficiency.

  20. The legacy of disadvantage: multigenerational neighborhood effects on cognitive ability.

    PubMed

    Sharkey, Patrick; Elwert, Felix

    2011-05-01

    This study examines how the neighborhood environments experienced over multiple generations of a family influence children's cognitive ability. Building on recent research showing strong continuity in neighborhood environments across generations of family members, the authors argue for a revised perspective on "neighborhood effects" that considers the ways in which the neighborhood environment in one generation may have a lingering impact on the next generation. To analyze multigenerational effects, the authors use newly developed methods designed to estimate unbiased treatment effects when treatments and confounders vary over time. The results confirm a powerful link between neighborhoods and cognitive ability that extends across generations. A family's exposure to neighborhood poverty across two consecutive generations reduces child cognitive ability by more than half a standard deviation. A formal sensitivity analysis suggests that results are robust to unobserved selection bias.

  1. Real-Time Parameter Estimation Method Applied to a MIMO Process and its Comparison with an Offline Identification Method

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kaplanoglu, Erkan; Safak, Koray K.; Varol, H. Selcuk

    2009-01-12

    An experiment based method is proposed for parameter estimation of a class of linear multivariable systems. The method was applied to a pressure-level control process. Experimental time domain input/output data was utilized in a gray-box modeling approach. Prior knowledge of the form of the system transfer function matrix elements is assumed to be known. Continuous-time system transfer function matrix parameters were estimated in real-time by the least-squares method. Simulation results of experimentally determined system transfer function matrix compare very well with the experimental results. For comparison and as an alternative to the proposed real-time estimation method, we also implemented anmore » offline identification method using artificial neural networks and obtained fairly good results. The proposed methods can be implemented conveniently on a desktop PC equipped with a data acquisition board for parameter estimation of moderately complex linear multivariable systems.« less

  2. Children with developmental coordination disorder demonstrate a spatial mismatch when estimating coincident-timing ability with tools.

    PubMed

    Caçola, Priscila; Ibana, Melvin; Ricard, Mark; Gabbard, Carl

    2016-01-01

    Coincident timing or interception ability can be defined as the capacity to precisely time sensory input and motor output. This study compared accuracy of typically developing (TD) children and those with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) on a task involving estimation of coincident timing with their arm and various tool lengths. Forty-eight (48) participants performed two experiments where they imagined intercepting a target moving toward (Experiment 1) and target moving away (Experiment 2) from them in 5 conditions with their arm and tool lengths: arm, 10, 20, 30, and 40 cm. In Experiment 1, the DCD group overestimated interception points approximately twice as much as the TD group, and both groups overestimated consistently regardless of the tool used. Results for Experiment 2 revealed that those with DCD underestimated about three times as much as the TD group, with the exception of when no tool was used. Overall, these results indicate that children with DCD are less accurate with estimation of coincident-timing; which might in part explain their difficulties with common motor activities such as catching a ball or striking a baseball pitch. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

    PubMed

    Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

    2011-05-01

    Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

  4. Improving stochastic estimates with inference methods: calculating matrix diagonals.

    PubMed

    Selig, Marco; Oppermann, Niels; Ensslin, Torsten A

    2012-02-01

    Estimating the diagonal entries of a matrix, that is not directly accessible but only available as a linear operator in the form of a computer routine, is a common necessity in many computational applications, especially in image reconstruction and statistical inference. Here, methods of statistical inference are used to improve the accuracy or the computational costs of matrix probing methods to estimate matrix diagonals. In particular, the generalized Wiener filter methodology, as developed within information field theory, is shown to significantly improve estimates based on only a few sampling probes, in cases in which some form of continuity of the solution can be assumed. The strength, length scale, and precise functional form of the exploited autocorrelation function of the matrix diagonal is determined from the probes themselves. The developed algorithm is successfully applied to mock and real world problems. These performance tests show that, in situations where a matrix diagonal has to be calculated from only a small number of computationally expensive probes, a speedup by a factor of 2 to 10 is possible with the proposed method. © 2012 American Physical Society

  5. Step Test: a method for evaluating maximum oxygen consumption to determine the ability kind of work among students of medical emergencies

    PubMed Central

    Heydari, Payam; Varmazyar, Sakineh; Nikpey, Ahmad; Variani, Ali Safari; Jafarvand, Mojtaba

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Maximum oxygen consumption shows the maximum oxygen rate of muscle oxygenation that is acceptable in many cases, to measure the fitness between person and the desired job. Given that medical emergencies are important, and difficult jobs in emergency situations require people with high physical ability and readiness for the job, the aim of this study was to evaluate the maximum oxygen consumption, to determine the ability of work type among students of medical emergencies in Qazvin in 2016. Methods This study was a descriptive – analytical, and in cross-sectional type conducted among 36 volunteer students of medical emergencies in Qazvin in 2016. After necessary coordination for the implementation of the study, participants completed health questionnaires and demographic characteristics and then the participants were evaluated with step tests of American College of Sport Medicine (ACSM). Data analysis was done by SPSS version 18 and U-Mann-Whitney tests, Kruskal-Wallis and Pearson correlation coefficient. Results Average of maximum oxygen consumption of the participants was estimated 3.15±0.50 liters per minute. 91.7% of medical emergencies students were selected as appropriate in terms of maximum oxygen consumption and thus had the ability to do heavy and too heavy work. Average of maximum oxygen consumption evaluated by the U-Mann-Whitney test and Kruskal-Wallis, had significant relationship with age (p<0.05) and weight groups (p<0.001). There was a significant positive correlation between maximum oxygen consumption with weight and body mass index (p<0.001). Conclusion The results of this study showed that demographic variables of weight and body mass index are the factors influencing the determination of maximum oxygen consumption, as most of the students had the ability to do heavy, and too heavy work. Therefore, people with ability to do average work are not suitable for medical emergency tasks. PMID:28461880

  6. Genetic Algorithm-Based Motion Estimation Method using Orientations and EMGs for Robot Controls

    PubMed Central

    Chae, Jeongsook; Jin, Yong; Sung, Yunsick

    2018-01-01

    Demand for interactive wearable devices is rapidly increasing with the development of smart devices. To accurately utilize wearable devices for remote robot controls, limited data should be analyzed and utilized efficiently. For example, the motions by a wearable device, called Myo device, can be estimated by measuring its orientation, and calculating a Bayesian probability based on these orientation data. Given that Myo device can measure various types of data, the accuracy of its motion estimation can be increased by utilizing these additional types of data. This paper proposes a motion estimation method based on weighted Bayesian probability and concurrently measured data, orientations and electromyograms (EMG). The most probable motion among estimated is treated as a final estimated motion. Thus, recognition accuracy can be improved when compared to the traditional methods that employ only a single type of data. In our experiments, seven subjects perform five predefined motions. When orientation is measured by the traditional methods, the sum of the motion estimation errors is 37.3%; likewise, when only EMG data are used, the error in motion estimation by the proposed method was also 37.3%. The proposed combined method has an error of 25%. Therefore, the proposed method reduces motion estimation errors by 12%. PMID:29324641

  7. Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong

    This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

  8. Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

    DOE PAGES

    Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong; ...

    2016-12-22

    This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

  9. Double-survey estimates of bald eagle populations in Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anthony, R.G.; Garrett, Monte G.; Isaacs, F.B.

    1999-01-01

    The literature on abundance of birds of prey is almost devoid of population estimates with statistical rigor. Therefore, we surveyed bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations on the Crooked and lower Columbia rivers of Oregon and used the double-survey method to estimate populations and sighting probabilities for different survey methods (aerial, boat, vehicle) and bald eagle ages (adults vs. subadults). Sighting probabilities were consistently 20%. The results revealed variable and negative bias (percent relative bias = -9 to -70%) of direct counts and emphasized the importance of estimating populations where some measure of precision and ability to conduct inference tests are available. We recommend use of the double-survey method to estimate abundance of bald eagle populations and other raptors in open habitats.

  10. Hexographic Method of Complex Town-Planning Terrain Estimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khudyakov, A. Ju

    2017-11-01

    The article deals with the vital problem of a complex town-planning analysis based on the “hexographic” graphic analytic method, makes a comparison with conventional terrain estimate methods and contains the method application examples. It discloses a procedure of the author’s estimate of restrictions and building of a mathematical model which reflects not only conventional town-planning restrictions, but also social and aesthetic aspects of the analyzed territory. The method allows one to quickly get an idea of the territory potential. It is possible to use an unlimited number of estimated factors. The method can be used for the integrated assessment of urban areas. In addition, it is possible to use the methods of preliminary evaluation of the territory commercial attractiveness in the preparation of investment projects. The technique application results in simple informative graphics. Graphical interpretation is straightforward from the experts. A definite advantage is the free perception of the subject results as they are not prepared professionally. Thus, it is possible to build a dialogue between professionals and the public on a new level allowing to take into account the interests of various parties. At the moment, the method is used as a tool for the preparation of integrated urban development projects at the Department of Architecture in Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “South Ural State University (National Research University)”, FSAEIHE SUSU (NRU). The methodology is included in a course of lectures as the material on architectural and urban design for architecture students. The same methodology was successfully tested in the preparation of business strategies for the development of some territories in the Chelyabinsk region. This publication is the first in a series of planned activities developing and describing the methodology of hexographical analysis in urban and architectural practice. It is also

  11. Tree Biomass Estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) Based on Bayesian Method

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jianguo

    2013-01-01

    Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass. PMID:24278198

  12. Tree biomass estimation of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) based on Bayesian method.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo

    2013-01-01

    Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Accurate estimation of biomass is required for accounting and monitoring Chinese forest carbon stocking. In the study, allometric equation W = a(D2H)b was used to analyze tree biomass of Chinese fir. The common methods for estimating allometric model have taken the classical approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability. However, many different biotic and abiotic factors introduce variability in Chinese fir biomass model, suggesting that parameters of biomass model are better represented by probability distributions rather than fixed values as classical method. To deal with the problem, Bayesian method was used for estimating Chinese fir biomass model. In the Bayesian framework, two priors were introduced: non-informative priors and informative priors. For informative priors, 32 biomass equations of Chinese fir were collected from published literature in the paper. The parameter distributions from published literature were regarded as prior distributions in Bayesian model for estimating Chinese fir biomass. Therefore, the Bayesian method with informative priors was better than non-informative priors and classical method, which provides a reasonable method for estimating Chinese fir biomass.

  13. Position Estimation Method of Medical Implanted Devices Using Estimation of Propagation Velocity inside Human Body

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawasaki, Makoto; Kohno, Ryuji

    Wireless communication devices in the field of medical implant, such as cardiac pacemakers and capsule endoscopes, have been studied and developed to improve healthcare systems. Especially it is very important to know the range and position of each device because it will contribute to an optimization of the transmission power. We adopt the time-based approach of position estimation using ultra wideband signals. However, the propagation velocity inside the human body differs in each tissue and each frequency. Furthermore, the human body is formed of various tissues with complex structures. For this reason, propagation velocity is different at a different point inside human body and the received signal so distorted through the channel inside human body. In this paper, we apply an adaptive template synthesis method in multipath channel for calculate the propagation time accurately based on the output of the correlator between the transmitter and the receiver. Furthermore, we propose a position estimation method using an estimation of the propagation velocity inside the human body. In addition, we show by computer simulation that the proposal method can perform accurate positioning with a size of medical implanted devices such as a medicine capsule.

  14. New method for estimating low-earth-orbit collision probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vedder, John D.; Tabor, Jill L.

    1991-01-01

    An unconventional but general method is described for estimating the probability of collision between an earth-orbiting spacecraft and orbital debris. This method uses a Monte Caralo simulation of the orbital motion of the target spacecraft and each discrete debris object to generate an empirical set of distances, each distance representing the separation between the spacecraft and the nearest debris object at random times. Using concepts from the asymptotic theory of extreme order statistics, an analytical density function is fitted to this set of minimum distances. From this function, it is possible to generate realistic collision estimates for the spacecraft.

  15. Age-related self-overestimation of step-over ability in healthy older adults and its relationship to fall risk

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Older adults could not safely step over an obstacle unless they correctly estimated their physical ability to be capable of a successful step over action. Thus, incorrect estimation (overestimation) of ability to step over an obstacle could result in severe accident such as falls in older adults. We investigated whether older adults tended to overestimate step-over ability compared with young adults and whether such overestimation in stepping over obstacles was associated with falls. Methods Three groups of adults, young-old (age, 60–74 years; n, 343), old-old (age, >74 years; n, 151), and young (age, 18–35 years; n, 71), performed our original step-over test (SOT). In the SOT, participants observed a horizontal bar at a 7-m distance and estimated the maximum height (EH) that they could step over. After estimation, they performed real SOT trials to measure the actual maximum height (AH). We also identified participants who had experienced falls in the 1 year period before the study. Results Thirty-nine young-old adults (11.4%) and 49 old-old adults (32.5%) failed to step over the bar at EH (overestimation), whereas all young adults succeeded (underestimation). There was a significant negative correlation between actual performance (AH) and self-estimation error (difference between EH and AH) in the older adults, indicating that older adults with lower AH (SOT ability) tended to overestimate actual ability (EH > AH) and vice versa. Furthermore, the percentage of participants who overestimated SOT ability in the fallers (28%) was almost double larger than that in the non-fallers (16%), with the fallers showing significantly lower SOT ability than the non-fallers. Conclusions Older adults appear unaware of age-related physical decline and tended to overestimate step-over ability. Both age-related decline in step-over ability, and more importantly, overestimation or decreased underestimation of this ability may raise potential risk of falls. PMID

  16. Estimation of phase derivatives using discrete chirp-Fourier-transform-based method.

    PubMed

    Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

    2009-08-15

    Estimation of phase derivatives is an important task in many interferometric measurements in optical metrology. This Letter introduces a method based on discrete chirp-Fourier transform for accurate and direct estimation of phase derivatives, even in the presence of noise. The method is introduced in the context of the analysis of reconstructed interference fields in digital holographic interferometry. We present simulation and experimental results demonstrating the utility of the proposed method.

  17. Estimation of brood and nest survival: Comparative methods in the presence of heterogeneity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manly, Bryan F.J.; Schmutz, Joel A.

    2001-01-01

    The Mayfield method has been widely used for estimating survival of nests and young animals, especially when data are collected at irregular observation intervals. However, this method assumes survival is constant throughout the study period, which often ignores biologically relevant variation and may lead to biased survival estimates. We examined the bias and accuracy of 1 modification to the Mayfield method that allows for temporal variation in survival, and we developed and similarly tested 2 additional methods. One of these 2 new methods is simply an iterative extension of Klett and Johnson's method, which we refer to as the Iterative Mayfield method and bears similarity to Kaplan-Meier methods. The other method uses maximum likelihood techniques for estimation and is best applied to survival of animals in groups or families, rather than as independent individuals. We also examined how robust these estimators are to heterogeneity in the data, which can arise from such sources as dependent survival probabilities among siblings, inherent differences among families, and adoption. Testing of estimator performance with respect to bias, accuracy, and heterogeneity was done using simulations that mimicked a study of survival of emperor goose (Chen canagica) goslings. Assuming constant survival for inappropriately long periods of time or use of Klett and Johnson's methods resulted in large bias or poor accuracy (often >5% bias or root mean square error) compared to our Iterative Mayfield or maximum likelihood methods. Overall, estimator performance was slightly better with our Iterative Mayfield than our maximum likelihood method, but the maximum likelihood method provides a more rigorous framework for testing covariates and explicity models a heterogeneity factor. We demonstrated use of all estimators with data from emperor goose goslings. We advocate that future studies use the new methods outlined here rather than the traditional Mayfield method or its previous

  18. Blind estimation of reverberation time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratnam, Rama; Jones, Douglas L.; Wheeler, Bruce C.; O'Brien, William D.; Lansing, Charissa R.; Feng, Albert S.

    2003-11-01

    The reverberation time (RT) is an important parameter for characterizing the quality of an auditory space. Sounds in reverberant environments are subject to coloration. This affects speech intelligibility and sound localization. Many state-of-the-art audio signal processing algorithms, for example in hearing-aids and telephony, are expected to have the ability to characterize the listening environment, and turn on an appropriate processing strategy accordingly. Thus, a method for characterization of room RT based on passively received microphone signals represents an important enabling technology. Current RT estimators, such as Schroeder's method, depend on a controlled sound source, and thus cannot produce an online, blind RT estimate. Here, a method for estimating RT without prior knowledge of sound sources or room geometry is presented. The diffusive tail of reverberation was modeled as an exponentially damped Gaussian white noise process. The time-constant of the decay, which provided a measure of the RT, was estimated using a maximum-likelihood procedure. The estimates were obtained continuously, and an order-statistics filter was used to extract the most likely RT from the accumulated estimates. The procedure was illustrated for connected speech. Results obtained for simulated and real room data are in good agreement with the real RT values.

  19. Population Estimation Methods for Free-Ranging Dogs: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Belo, Vinícius Silva; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Struchiner, Claudio José

    2015-01-01

    The understanding of the structure of free-roaming dog populations is of extreme importance for the planning and monitoring of populational control strategies and animal welfare. The methods used to estimate the abundance of this group of dogs are more complex than the ones used with domiciled owned dogs. In this systematic review, we analyze the techniques and the results obtained in studies that seek to estimate the size of free-ranging dog populations. Twenty-six studies were reviewed regarding the quality of execution and their capacity to generate valid estimates. Seven of the eight publications that take a simple count of the animal population did not consider the different probabilities of animal detection; only one study used methods based on distances; twelve relied on capture-recapture models for closed populations without considering heterogeneities in capture probabilities; six studies applied their own methods with different potential and limitations. Potential sources of bias in the studies were related to the inadequate description or implementation of animal capturing or viewing procedures and to inadequacies in the identification and registration of dogs. Thus, there was a predominance of estimates with low validity. Abundance and density estimates carried high variability, and all studies identified a greater number of male dogs. We point to enhancements necessary for the implementation of future studies and to potential updates and revisions to the recommendations of the World Health Organization with respect to the estimation of free-ranging dog populations.

  20. Performance comparison of first-order conditional estimation with interaction and Bayesian estimation methods for estimating the population parameters and its distribution from data sets with a low number of subjects.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, Sudeep; Song, Byungjeong; Lee, Jaeyeon; Chae, Jung-Woo; Kim, Kyung Im; Back, Hyun-Moon; Han, Nayoung; Kwon, Kwang-Il; Yun, Hwi-Yeol

    2017-12-01

    Exploratory preclinical, as well as clinical trials, may involve a small number of patients, making it difficult to calculate and analyze the pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters, especially if the PK parameters show very high inter-individual variability (IIV). In this study, the performance of a classical first-order conditional estimation with interaction (FOCE-I) and expectation maximization (EM)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian (BAYES) estimation methods were compared for estimating the population parameters and its distribution from data sets having a low number of subjects. In this study, 100 data sets were simulated with eight sampling points for each subject and with six different levels of IIV (5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 50%, and 80%) in their PK parameter distribution. A stochastic simulation and estimation (SSE) study was performed to simultaneously simulate data sets and estimate the parameters using four different methods: FOCE-I only, BAYES(C) (FOCE-I and BAYES composite method), BAYES(F) (BAYES with all true initial parameters and fixed ω 2 ), and BAYES only. Relative root mean squared error (rRMSE) and relative estimation error (REE) were used to analyze the differences between true and estimated values. A case study was performed with a clinical data of theophylline available in NONMEM distribution media. NONMEM software assisted by Pirana, PsN, and Xpose was used to estimate population PK parameters, and R program was used to analyze and plot the results. The rRMSE and REE values of all parameter (fixed effect and random effect) estimates showed that all four methods performed equally at the lower IIV levels, while the FOCE-I method performed better than other EM-based methods at higher IIV levels (greater than 30%). In general, estimates of random-effect parameters showed significant bias and imprecision, irrespective of the estimation method used and the level of IIV. Similar performance of the estimation methods was observed with theophylline

  1. An improved method to estimate reflectance parameters for high dynamic range imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shiying; Deguchi, Koichiro; Li, Renfa; Manabe, Yoshitsugu; Chihara, Kunihiro

    2008-01-01

    Two methods are described to accurately estimate diffuse and specular reflectance parameters for colors, gloss intensity and surface roughness, over the dynamic range of the camera used to capture input images. Neither method needs to segment color areas on an image, or to reconstruct a high dynamic range (HDR) image. The second method improves on the first, bypassing the requirement for specific separation of diffuse and specular reflection components. For the latter method, diffuse and specular reflectance parameters are estimated separately, using the least squares method. Reflection values are initially assumed to be diffuse-only reflection components, and are subjected to the least squares method to estimate diffuse reflectance parameters. Specular reflection components, obtained by subtracting the computed diffuse reflection components from reflection values, are then subjected to a logarithmically transformed equation of the Torrance-Sparrow reflection model, and specular reflectance parameters for gloss intensity and surface roughness are finally estimated using the least squares method. Experiments were carried out using both methods, with simulation data at different saturation levels, generated according to the Lambert and Torrance-Sparrow reflection models, and the second method, with spectral images captured by an imaging spectrograph and a moving light source. Our results show that the second method can estimate the diffuse and specular reflectance parameters for colors, gloss intensity and surface roughness more accurately and faster than the first one, so that colors and gloss can be reproduced more efficiently for HDR imaging.

  2. Competitive Abilities in Experimental Microcosms Are Accurately Predicted by a Demographic Index for R*

    PubMed Central

    Murrell, Ebony G.; Juliano, Steven A.

    2012-01-01

    Resource competition theory predicts that R*, the equilibrium resource amount yielding zero growth of a consumer population, should predict species' competitive abilities for that resource. This concept has been supported for unicellular organisms, but has not been well-tested for metazoans, probably due to the difficulty of raising experimental populations to equilibrium and measuring population growth rates for species with long or complex life cycles. We developed an index (Rindex) of R* based on demography of one insect cohort, growing from egg to adult in a non-equilibrium setting, and tested whether Rindex yielded accurate predictions of competitive abilities using mosquitoes as a model system. We estimated finite rate of increase (λ′) from demographic data for cohorts of three mosquito species raised with different detritus amounts, and estimated each species' Rindex using nonlinear regressions of λ′ vs. initial detritus amount. All three species' Rindex differed significantly, and accurately predicted competitive hierarchy of the species determined in simultaneous pairwise competition experiments. Our Rindex could provide estimates and rigorous statistical comparisons of competitive ability for organisms for which typical chemostat methods and equilibrium population conditions are impractical. PMID:22970128

  3. Probability estimation with machine learning methods for dichotomous and multicategory outcome: theory.

    PubMed

    Kruppa, Jochen; Liu, Yufeng; Biau, Gérard; Kohler, Michael; König, Inke R; Malley, James D; Ziegler, Andreas

    2014-07-01

    Probability estimation for binary and multicategory outcome using logistic and multinomial logistic regression has a long-standing tradition in biostatistics. However, biases may occur if the model is misspecified. In contrast, outcome probabilities for individuals can be estimated consistently with machine learning approaches, including k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), bagged nearest neighbors (b-NN), random forests (RF), and support vector machines (SVM). Because machine learning methods are rarely used by applied biostatisticians, the primary goal of this paper is to explain the concept of probability estimation with these methods and to summarize recent theoretical findings. Probability estimation in k-NN, b-NN, and RF can be embedded into the class of nonparametric regression learning machines; therefore, we start with the construction of nonparametric regression estimates and review results on consistency and rates of convergence. In SVMs, outcome probabilities for individuals are estimated consistently by repeatedly solving classification problems. For SVMs we review classification problem and then dichotomous probability estimation. Next we extend the algorithms for estimating probabilities using k-NN, b-NN, and RF to multicategory outcomes and discuss approaches for the multicategory probability estimation problem using SVM. In simulation studies for dichotomous and multicategory dependent variables we demonstrate the general validity of the machine learning methods and compare it with logistic regression. However, each method fails in at least one simulation scenario. We conclude with a discussion of the failures and give recommendations for selecting and tuning the methods. Applications to real data and example code are provided in a companion article (doi:10.1002/bimj.201300077). © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  4. Efficient parameter estimation in longitudinal data analysis using a hybrid GEE method.

    PubMed

    Leung, Denis H Y; Wang, You-Gan; Zhu, Min

    2009-07-01

    The method of generalized estimating equations (GEEs) provides consistent estimates of the regression parameters in a marginal regression model for longitudinal data, even when the working correlation model is misspecified (Liang and Zeger, 1986). However, the efficiency of a GEE estimate can be seriously affected by the choice of the working correlation model. This study addresses this problem by proposing a hybrid method that combines multiple GEEs based on different working correlation models, using the empirical likelihood method (Qin and Lawless, 1994). Analyses show that this hybrid method is more efficient than a GEE using a misspecified working correlation model. Furthermore, if one of the working correlation structures correctly models the within-subject correlations, then this hybrid method provides the most efficient parameter estimates. In simulations, the hybrid method's finite-sample performance is superior to a GEE under any of the commonly used working correlation models and is almost fully efficient in all scenarios studied. The hybrid method is illustrated using data from a longitudinal study of the respiratory infection rates in 275 Indonesian children.

  5. An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

    2016-04-01

    This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the

  6. A comparison of sap flux-based evapotranspiration estimates with catchment-scale water balance

    Treesearch

    Chelcy R. Ford; Robert M. Hubbard; Brian D. Kloeppel; James M. Vose

    2007-01-01

    Many researchers are using sap flux to estimate tree-level transpiration, and to scale to stand- and catchment-level transpiration; yet studies evaluating the comparability of sap flux-based estimates of transpiration (E) with alternative methods for estimating Et at this spatial scale are rare. Our ability to...

  7. Methods to estimate the between‐study variance and its uncertainty in meta‐analysis†

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Dan; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Bender, Ralf; Bowden, Jack; Knapp, Guido; Kuss, Oliver; Higgins, Julian PT; Langan, Dean; Salanti, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Meta‐analyses are typically used to estimate the overall/mean of an outcome of interest. However, inference about between‐study variability, which is typically modelled using a between‐study variance parameter, is usually an additional aim. The DerSimonian and Laird method, currently widely used by default to estimate the between‐study variance, has been long challenged. Our aim is to identify known methods for estimation of the between‐study variance and its corresponding uncertainty, and to summarise the simulation and empirical evidence that compares them. We identified 16 estimators for the between‐study variance, seven methods to calculate confidence intervals, and several comparative studies. Simulation studies suggest that for both dichotomous and continuous data the estimator proposed by Paule and Mandel and for continuous data the restricted maximum likelihood estimator are better alternatives to estimate the between‐study variance. Based on the scenarios and results presented in the published studies, we recommend the Q‐profile method and the alternative approach based on a ‘generalised Cochran between‐study variance statistic’ to compute corresponding confidence intervals around the resulting estimates. Our recommendations are based on a qualitative evaluation of the existing literature and expert consensus. Evidence‐based recommendations require an extensive simulation study where all methods would be compared under the same scenarios. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26332144

  8. Mixed-norm estimates for the M/EEG inverse problem using accelerated gradient methods.

    PubMed

    Gramfort, Alexandre; Kowalski, Matthieu; Hämäläinen, Matti

    2012-04-07

    Magneto- and electroencephalography (M/EEG) measure the electromagnetic fields produced by the neural electrical currents. Given a conductor model for the head, and the distribution of source currents in the brain, Maxwell's equations allow one to compute the ensuing M/EEG signals. Given the actual M/EEG measurements and the solution of this forward problem, one can localize, in space and in time, the brain regions that have produced the recorded data. However, due to the physics of the problem, the limited number of sensors compared to the number of possible source locations, and measurement noise, this inverse problem is ill-posed. Consequently, additional constraints are needed. Classical inverse solvers, often called minimum norm estimates (MNE), promote source estimates with a small ℓ₂ norm. Here, we consider a more general class of priors based on mixed norms. Such norms have the ability to structure the prior in order to incorporate some additional assumptions about the sources. We refer to such solvers as mixed-norm estimates (MxNE). In the context of M/EEG, MxNE can promote spatially focal sources with smooth temporal estimates with a two-level ℓ₁/ℓ₂ mixed-norm, while a three-level mixed-norm can be used to promote spatially non-overlapping sources between different experimental conditions. In order to efficiently solve the optimization problems of MxNE, we introduce fast first-order iterative schemes that for the ℓ₁/ℓ₂ norm give solutions in a few seconds making such a prior as convenient as the simple MNE. Furthermore, thanks to the convexity of the optimization problem, we can provide optimality conditions that guarantee global convergence. The utility of the methods is demonstrated both with simulations and experimental MEG data.

  9. Mixed-norm estimates for the M/EEG inverse problem using accelerated gradient methods

    PubMed Central

    Gramfort, Alexandre; Kowalski, Matthieu; Hämäläinen, Matti

    2012-01-01

    Magneto- and electroencephalography (M/EEG) measure the electromagnetic fields produced by the neural electrical currents. Given a conductor model for the head, and the distribution of source currents in the brain, Maxwell’s equations allow one to compute the ensuing M/EEG signals. Given the actual M/EEG measurements and the solution of this forward problem, one can localize, in space and in time, the brain regions than have produced the recorded data. However, due to the physics of the problem, the limited number of sensors compared to the number of possible source locations, and measurement noise, this inverse problem is ill-posed. Consequently, additional constraints are needed. Classical inverse solvers, often called Minimum Norm Estimates (MNE), promote source estimates with a small ℓ2 norm. Here, we consider a more general class of priors based on mixed-norms. Such norms have the ability to structure the prior in order to incorporate some additional assumptions about the sources. We refer to such solvers as Mixed-Norm Estimates (MxNE). In the context of M/EEG, MxNE can promote spatially focal sources with smooth temporal estimates with a two-level ℓ1/ℓ2 mixed-norm, while a three-level mixed-norm can be used to promote spatially non-overlapping sources between different experimental conditions. In order to efficiently solve the optimization problems of MxNE, we introduce fast first-order iterative schemes that for the ℓ1/ℓ2 norm give solutions in a few seconds making such a prior as convenient as the simple MNE. Furhermore, thanks to the convexity of the optimization problem, we can provide optimality conditions that guarantee global convergence. The utility of the methods is demonstrated both with simulations and experimental MEG data. PMID:22421459

  10. Radiance and atmosphere propagation-based method for the target range estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Hoonkyung; Chun, Joohwan

    2012-06-01

    Target range estimation is traditionally based on radar and active sonar systems in modern combat system. However, the performance of such active sensor devices is degraded tremendously by jamming signal from the enemy. This paper proposes a simple range estimation method between the target and the sensor. Passive IR sensors measures infrared (IR) light radiance radiating from objects in dierent wavelength and this method shows robustness against electromagnetic jamming. The measured target radiance of each wavelength at the IR sensor depends on the emissive properties of target material and is attenuated by various factors, in particular the distance between the sensor and the target and atmosphere environment. MODTRAN is a tool that models atmospheric propagation of electromagnetic radiation. Based on the result from MODTRAN and measured radiance, the target range is estimated. To statistically analyze the performance of proposed method, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and evaluate the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) via the probability density function of measured radiance. And we also compare CRLB and the variance of and ML estimation using Monte-Carlo.

  11. A pose estimation method for unmanned ground vehicles in GPS denied environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamjidi, Amirhossein; Ye, Cang

    2012-06-01

    This paper presents a pose estimation method based on the 1-Point RANSAC EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) framework. The method fuses the depth data from a LIDAR and the visual data from a monocular camera to estimate the pose of a Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) in a GPS denied environment. Its estimation framework continuy updates the vehicle's 6D pose state and temporary estimates of the extracted visual features' 3D positions. In contrast to the conventional EKF-SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping) frameworks, the proposed method discards feature estimates from the extended state vector once they are no longer observed for several steps. As a result, the extended state vector always maintains a reasonable size that is suitable for online calculation. The fusion of laser and visual data is performed both in the feature initialization part of the EKF-SLAM process and in the motion prediction stage. A RANSAC pose calculation procedure is devised to produce pose estimate for the motion model. The proposed method has been successfully tested on the Ford campus's LIDAR-Vision dataset. The results are compared with the ground truth data of the dataset and the estimation error is ~1.9% of the path length.

  12. Methods for Estimation of Market Power in Electric Power Industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turcik, M.; Oleinikova, I.; Junghans, G.; Kolcun, M.

    2012-01-01

    The article is related to a topical issue of the newly-arisen market power phenomenon in the electric power industry. The authors point out to the importance of effective instruments and methods for credible estimation of the market power on liberalized electricity market as well as the forms and consequences of market power abuse. The fundamental principles and methods of the market power estimation are given along with the most common relevant indicators. Furthermore, in the work a proposal for determination of the relevant market place taking into account the specific features of power system and a theoretical example of estimating the residual supply index (RSI) in the electricity market are given.

  13. Parameter estimation problems for distributed systems using a multigrid method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ta'asan, Shlomo; Dutt, Pravir

    1990-01-01

    The problem of estimating spatially varying coefficients of partial differential equations is considered from observation of the solution and of the right hand side of the equation. It is assumed that the observations are distributed in the domain and that enough observations are given. A method of discretization and an efficient multigrid method for solving the resulting discrete systems are described. Numerical results are presented for estimation of coefficients in an elliptic and a parabolic partial differential equation.

  14. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  15. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1988-01-01

    The development of parametric cost estimating methods for advanced space systems in the conceptual design phase is discussed. The process of identifying variables which drive cost and the relationship between weight and cost are discussed. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested using a historical data base of research and development projects.

  16. Resampling methods in Microsoft Excel® for estimating reference intervals

    PubMed Central

    Theodorsson, Elvar

    2015-01-01

    Computer- intensive resampling/bootstrap methods are feasible when calculating reference intervals from non-Gaussian or small reference samples. Microsoft Excel® in version 2010 or later includes natural functions, which lend themselves well to this purpose including recommended interpolation procedures for estimating 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles.
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the reader to resampling estimation techniques in general and in using Microsoft Excel® 2010 for the purpose of estimating reference intervals in particular.
Parametric methods are preferable to resampling methods when the distributions of observations in the reference samples is Gaussian or can transformed to that distribution even when the number of reference samples is less than 120. Resampling methods are appropriate when the distribution of data from the reference samples is non-Gaussian and in case the number of reference individuals and corresponding samples are in the order of 40. At least 500-1000 random samples with replacement should be taken from the results of measurement of the reference samples. PMID:26527366

  17. Resampling methods in Microsoft Excel® for estimating reference intervals.

    PubMed

    Theodorsson, Elvar

    2015-01-01

    Computer-intensive resampling/bootstrap methods are feasible when calculating reference intervals from non-Gaussian or small reference samples. Microsoft Excel® in version 2010 or later includes natural functions, which lend themselves well to this purpose including recommended interpolation procedures for estimating 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles. 
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the reader to resampling estimation techniques in general and in using Microsoft Excel® 2010 for the purpose of estimating reference intervals in particular.
 Parametric methods are preferable to resampling methods when the distributions of observations in the reference samples is Gaussian or can transformed to that distribution even when the number of reference samples is less than 120. Resampling methods are appropriate when the distribution of data from the reference samples is non-Gaussian and in case the number of reference individuals and corresponding samples are in the order of 40. At least 500-1000 random samples with replacement should be taken from the results of measurement of the reference samples.

  18. New method for estimating arterial pulse wave velocity at single site.

    PubMed

    Abdessalem, Khaled Ben; Flaud, Patrice; Zobaidi, Samir

    2018-01-01

    The clinical importance of measuring local pulse wave velocity (PWV), has encouraged researchers to develop several local methods to estimate it. In this work, we proposed a new method, the sum-of-squares method [Formula: see text], that allows the estimations of PWV by using simultaneous measurements of blood pressure (P) and arterial diameter (D) at single-location. Pulse waveforms generated by: (1) two-dimensional (2D) fluid-structure interaction simulation (FSI) in a compliant tube, (2) one-dimensional (1D) model of 55 larger human systemic arteries and (3) experimental data were used to validate the new formula and evaluate several classical methods. The performance of the proposed method was assessed by comparing its results to theoretical PWV calculated from the parameters of the model and/or to PWV estimated by several classical methods. It was found that values of PWV obtained by the developed method [Formula: see text] are in good agreement with theoretical ones and with those calculated by PA-loop and D 2 P-loop. The difference between the PWV calculated by [Formula: see text] and PA-loop does not exceed 1% when data from simulations are used, 3% when in vitro data are used and 5% when in vivo data are used. In addition, this study suggests that estimated PWV from arterial pressure and diameter waveforms provide correct values while methods that require flow rate (Q) and velocity (U) overestimate or underestimate PWV.

  19. Empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of "unsafety": the multivariate regression method.

    PubMed

    Hauer, E

    1992-10-01

    There are two kinds of clues to the unsafety of an entity: its traits (such as traffic, geometry, age, or gender) and its historical accident record. The Empirical Bayes approach to unsafety estimation makes use of both kinds of clues. It requires information about the mean and the variance of the unsafety in a "reference population" of similar entities. The method now in use for this purpose suffers from several shortcomings. First, a very large reference population is required. Second, the choice of reference population is to some extent arbitrary. Third, entities in the reference population usually cannot match the traits of the entity the unsafety of which is estimated. To alleviate these shortcomings the multivariate regression method for estimating the mean and variance of unsafety in reference populations is offered. Its logical foundations are described and its soundness is demonstrated. The use of the multivariate method makes the Empirical Bayes approach to unsafety estimation applicable to a wider range of circumstances and yields better estimates of unsafety. The application of the method to the tasks of identifying deviant entities and of estimating the effect of interventions on unsafety are discussed and illustrated by numerical examples.

  20. Methods to estimate historical daily streamflow for ungaged stream locations in Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lorenz, David L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2016-03-14

    Effective and responsible management of water resources relies on a thorough understanding of the quantity and quality of available water; however, streamgages cannot be installed at every location where streamflow information is needed. Therefore, methods for estimating streamflow at ungaged stream locations need to be developed. This report presents a statewide study to develop methods to estimate the structure of historical daily streamflow at ungaged stream locations in Minnesota. Historical daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in Minnesota can be estimated by transferring streamflow data at streamgages to the ungaged location using the QPPQ method. The QPPQ method uses flow-duration curves at an index streamgage, relying on the assumption that exceedance probabilities are equivalent between the index streamgage and the ungaged location, and estimates the flow at the ungaged location using the estimated flow-duration curve. Flow-duration curves at ungaged locations can be estimated using recently developed regression equations that have been incorporated into StreamStats (http://streamstats.usgs.gov/), which is a U.S. Geological Survey Web-based interactive mapping tool that can be used to obtain streamflow statistics, drainage-basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected locations on streams.

  1. Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding.

    PubMed

    Ould Estaghvirou, Sidi Boubacar; Ogutu, Joseph O; Schulz-Streeck, Torben; Knaak, Carsten; Ouzunova, Milena; Gordillo, Andres; Piepho, Hans-Peter

    2013-12-06

    In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least

  2. Use of Multiple Imputation Method to Improve Estimation of Missing Baseline Serum Creatinine in Acute Kidney Injury Research

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, Josh F.; Eden, Svetlana K.; Moons, Karel G.; Ikizler, T. Alp; Matheny, Michael E.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives Baseline creatinine (BCr) is frequently missing in AKI studies. Common surrogate estimates can misclassify AKI and adversely affect the study of related outcomes. This study examined whether multiple imputation improved accuracy of estimating missing BCr beyond current recommendations to apply assumed estimated GFR (eGFR) of 75 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (eGFR 75). Design, setting, participants, & measurements From 41,114 unique adult admissions (13,003 with and 28,111 without BCr data) at Vanderbilt University Hospital between 2006 and 2008, a propensity score model was developed to predict likelihood of missing BCr. Propensity scoring identified 6502 patients with highest likelihood of missing BCr among 13,003 patients with known BCr to simulate a “missing” data scenario while preserving actual reference BCr. Within this cohort (n=6502), the ability of various multiple-imputation approaches to estimate BCr and classify AKI were compared with that of eGFR 75. Results All multiple-imputation methods except the basic one more closely approximated actual BCr than did eGFR 75. Total AKI misclassification was lower with multiple imputation (full multiple imputation + serum creatinine) (9.0%) than with eGFR 75 (12.3%; P<0.001). Improvements in misclassification were greater in patients with impaired kidney function (full multiple imputation + serum creatinine) (15.3%) versus eGFR 75 (40.5%; P<0.001). Multiple imputation improved specificity and positive predictive value for detecting AKI at the expense of modestly decreasing sensitivity relative to eGFR 75. Conclusions Multiple imputation can improve accuracy in estimating missing BCr and reduce misclassification of AKI beyond currently proposed methods. PMID:23037980

  3. Estimation of Lithological Classification in Taipei Basin: A Bayesian Maximum Entropy Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Meng-Ting; Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2015-04-01

    In environmental or other scientific applications, we must have a certain understanding of geological lithological composition. Because of restrictions of real conditions, only limited amount of data can be acquired. To find out the lithological distribution in the study area, many spatial statistical methods used to estimate the lithological composition on unsampled points or grids. This study applied the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method), which is an emerging method of the geological spatiotemporal statistics field. The BME method can identify the spatiotemporal correlation of the data, and combine not only the hard data but the soft data to improve estimation. The data of lithological classification is discrete categorical data. Therefore, this research applied Categorical BME to establish a complete three-dimensional Lithological estimation model. Apply the limited hard data from the cores and the soft data generated from the geological dating data and the virtual wells to estimate the three-dimensional lithological classification in Taipei Basin. Keywords: Categorical Bayesian Maximum Entropy method, Lithological Classification, Hydrogeological Setting

  4. Comparison of methods used to estimate numbers of walruses on sea ice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gilbert, James R.; Fedoseev, Gennadii A.

    2001-01-01

    The US and former USSR conducted joint surveys of Pacific walruses on sea ice and at land haul-outs in 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. One of the difficulties in interpreting results of these surveys has been that, except for the 1990 survey, the Americans and Soviets used different methods for estimating population size from their respective portions of the sea ice data. We used data exchanged between Soviet and American scientists to compare and evaluate the two estimation procedures and to derive a set of alternative estimates from the 1975, 1980, and 1985 surveys based on a single consistent procedure. Estimation method had only a small effect on total population estimates because most walruses were found at land haul-outs. However, the Soviet method is subject to bias that depends on the distribution of the population on the sea ice and this has important implications for interpreting the ice portions of previously reported surveys for walruses and other pinniped species. We recommend that the American method be used in future surveys. Future research on survey methods for walruses should focus on other potential sources of bias and variation.

  5. A machine learning method to estimate PM2.5 concentrations across China with remote sensing, meteorological and land use information.

    PubMed

    Chen, Gongbo; Li, Shanshan; Knibbs, Luke D; Hamm, N A S; Cao, Wei; Li, Tiantian; Guo, Jianping; Ren, Hongyan; Abramson, Michael J; Guo, Yuming

    2018-09-15

    Machine learning algorithms have very high predictive ability. However, no study has used machine learning to estimate historical concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) at daily time scale in China at a national level. To estimate daily concentrations of PM 2.5 across China during 2005-2016. Daily ground-level PM 2.5 data were obtained from 1479 stations across China during 2014-2016. Data on aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological conditions and other predictors were downloaded. A random forests model (non-parametric machine learning algorithms) and two traditional regression models were developed to estimate ground-level PM 2.5 concentrations. The best-fit model was then utilized to estimate the daily concentrations of PM 2.5 across China with a resolution of 0.1° (≈10 km) during 2005-2016. The daily random forests model showed much higher predictive accuracy than the other two traditional regression models, explaining the majority of spatial variability in daily PM 2.5 [10-fold cross-validation (CV) R 2  = 83%, root mean squared prediction error (RMSE) = 28.1 μg/m 3 ]. At the monthly and annual time-scale, the explained variability of average PM 2.5 increased up to 86% (RMSE = 10.7 μg/m 3 and 6.9 μg/m 3 , respectively). Taking advantage of a novel application of modeling framework and the most recent ground-level PM 2.5 observations, the machine learning method showed higher predictive ability than previous studies. Random forests approach can be used to estimate historical exposure to PM 2.5 in China with high accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Methods for Estimating Uncertainty in Factor Analytic Solutions

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA PMF (Environmental Protection Agency positive matrix factorization) version 5.0 and the underlying multilinear engine-executable ME-2 contain three methods for estimating uncertainty in factor analytic models: classical bootstrap (BS), displacement of factor elements (DI...

  7. A weight modification sequential method for VSC-MTDC power system state estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xiaonan; Zhang, Hao; Li, Qiang; Guo, Ziming; Zhao, Kun; Li, Xinpeng; Han, Feng

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents an effective sequential approach based on weight modification for VSC-MTDC power system state estimation, called weight modification sequential method. The proposed approach simplifies the AC/DC system state estimation algorithm through modifying the weight of state quantity to keep the matrix dimension constant. The weight modification sequential method can also make the VSC-MTDC system state estimation calculation results more ccurate and increase the speed of calculation. The effectiveness of the proposed weight modification sequential method is demonstrated and validated in modified IEEE 14 bus system.

  8. Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Silva, Anisha

    This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

  9. The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating marginal hazard ratios.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2013-07-20

    Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to reduce or minimize the effects of confounding when estimating the effects of treatments, exposures, or interventions when using observational or non-randomized data. Under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, previous research has shown that propensity score methods allow for unbiased estimation of linear treatment effects (e.g., differences in means or proportions). However, in biomedical research, time-to-event outcomes occur frequently. There is a paucity of research into the performance of different propensity score methods for estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Furthermore, propensity score methods allow for the estimation of marginal or population-average treatment effects. We conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of propensity score matching (1:1 greedy nearest-neighbor matching within propensity score calipers), stratification on the propensity score, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score, and covariate adjustment using the propensity score to estimate marginal hazard ratios. We found that both propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score allow for the estimation of marginal hazard ratios with minimal bias. Of these two approaches, IPTW using the propensity score resulted in estimates with lower mean squared error when estimating the effect of treatment in the treated. Stratification on the propensity score and covariate adjustment using the propensity score result in biased estimation of both marginal and conditional hazard ratios. Applied researchers are encouraged to use propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score when estimating the relative effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. The improvement of autism spectrum disorders on children communication ability with PECS method Multimedia Augmented Reality-Based

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taryadi; Kurniawan, I.

    2018-01-01

    This research was done to examine the usage of PECS method (Picture Exchange Communication System) multimedia augmented reality based as a learning alternative in training the communication of autism childen. The aim of this research were developing an approach to improve the communication ability before and after an intervension with PECS multimedia augmented reality method. The subject of this research were 12 autism children in Inclusion school in Pekalongan region. The experiment method was used with the single subject research approach. The research resulted that the average ability level in communication before and after the treatment has shown 47% while during the treatment the average level is 65%. Whereas there is an improvement after intervension stage with the average of 76%..

  11. Task-oriented comparison of power spectral density estimation methods for quantifying acoustic attenuation in diagnostic ultrasound using a reference phantom method.

    PubMed

    Rosado-Mendez, Ivan M; Nam, Kibo; Hall, Timothy J; Zagzebski, James A

    2013-07-01

    Reported here is a phantom-based comparison of methods for determining the power spectral density (PSD) of ultrasound backscattered signals. Those power spectral density values are then used to estimate parameters describing α(f), the frequency dependence of the acoustic attenuation coefficient. Phantoms were scanned with a clinical system equipped with a research interface to obtain radiofrequency echo data. Attenuation, modeled as a power law α(f)= α0 f (β), was estimated using a reference phantom method. The power spectral density was estimated using the short-time Fourier transform (STFT), Welch's periodogram, and Thomson's multitaper technique, and performance was analyzed when limiting the size of the parameter-estimation region. Errors were quantified by the bias and standard deviation of the α0 and β estimates, and by the overall power-law fit error (FE). For parameter estimation regions larger than ~34 pulse lengths (~1 cm for this experiment), an overall power-law FE of 4% was achieved with all spectral estimation methods. With smaller parameter estimation regions as in parametric image formation, the bias and standard deviation of the α0 and β estimates depended on the size of the parameter estimation region. Here, the multitaper method reduced the standard deviation of the α0 and β estimates compared with those using the other techniques. The results provide guidance for choosing methods for estimating the power spectral density in quantitative ultrasound methods.

  12. A nondestructive method to estimate the chlorophyll content of Arabidopsis seedlings

    DOE PAGES

    Liang, Ying; Urano, Daisuke; Liao, Kang-Ling; ...

    2017-04-14

    Chlorophyll content decreases in plants under stress conditions, therefore it is used commonly as an indicator of plant health. Arabidopsis thaliana offers a convenient and fast way to test physiological phenotypes of mutations and treatments. But, chlorophyll measurements with conventional solvent extraction are not applicable to Arabidopsis leaves due to their small size, especially when grown on culture dishes. We provide a nondestructive method for chlorophyll measurement whereby the red, green and blue (RGB) values of a color leaf image is used to estimate the chlorophyll content from Arabidopsis leaves. The method accommodates different profiles of digital cameras by incorporatingmore » the ColorChecker chart to make the digital negative profiles, to adjust the white balance, and to calibrate the exposure rate differences caused by the environment so that this method is applicable in any environment. We chose an exponential function model to estimate chlorophyll content from the RGB values, and fitted the model parameters with physical measurements of chlorophyll contents. As further proof of utility, this method was used to estimate chlorophyll content of G protein mutants grown on different sugar to nitrogen ratios. Our method is a simple, fast, inexpensive, and nondestructive estimation of chlorophyll content of Arabidopsis seedlings. This method lead to the discovery that G proteins are important in sensing the C/N balance to control chlorophyll content in Arabidopsis.« less

  13. Stress estimation in reservoirs using an integrated inverse method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazuyer, Antoine; Cupillard, Paul; Giot, Richard; Conin, Marianne; Leroy, Yves; Thore, Pierre

    2018-05-01

    Estimating the stress in reservoirs and their surroundings prior to the production is a key issue for reservoir management planning. In this study, we propose an integrated inverse method to estimate such initial stress state. The 3D stress state is constructed with the displacement-based finite element method assuming linear isotropic elasticity and small perturbations in the current geometry of the geological structures. The Neumann boundary conditions are defined as piecewise linear functions of depth. The discontinuous functions are determined with the CMA-ES (Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy) optimization algorithm to fit wellbore stress data deduced from leak-off tests and breakouts. The disregard of the geological history and the simplified rheological assumptions mean that only the stress field, statically admissible and matching the wellbore data should be exploited. The spatial domain of validity of this statement is assessed by comparing the stress estimations for a synthetic folded structure of finite amplitude with a history constructed assuming a viscous response.

  14. Regional and longitudinal estimation of product lifespan distribution: a case study for automobiles and a simplified estimation method.

    PubMed

    Oguchi, Masahiro; Fuse, Masaaki

    2015-02-03

    Product lifespan estimates are important information for understanding progress toward sustainable consumption and estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products. Publications reported actual lifespan of products; however, quantitative data are still limited for many countries and years. This study presents regional and longitudinal estimation of lifespan distribution of consumer durables, taking passenger cars as an example, and proposes a simplified method for estimating product lifespan distribution. We estimated lifespan distribution parameters for 17 countries based on the age profile of in-use cars. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the shape parameter of the lifespan distribution can be replaced by a constant value for all the countries and years. This enabled a simplified estimation that does not require detailed data on the age profile. Applying the simplified method, we estimated the trend in average lifespans of passenger cars from 2000 to 2009 for 20 countries. Average lifespan differed greatly between countries (9-23 years) and was increasing in many countries. This suggests consumer behavior differs greatly among countries and has changed over time, even in developed countries. The results suggest that inappropriate assumptions of average lifespan may cause significant inaccuracy in estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products.

  15. Adaptive error covariances estimation methods for ensemble Kalman filters

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhen, Yicun, E-mail: zhen@math.psu.edu; Harlim, John, E-mail: jharlim@psu.edu

    2015-08-01

    This paper presents a computationally fast algorithm for estimating, both, the system and observation noise covariances of nonlinear dynamics, that can be used in an ensemble Kalman filtering framework. The new method is a modification of Belanger's recursive method, to avoid an expensive computational cost in inverting error covariance matrices of product of innovation processes of different lags when the number of observations becomes large. When we use only product of innovation processes up to one-lag, the computational cost is indeed comparable to a recently proposed method by Berry–Sauer's. However, our method is more flexible since it allows for usingmore » information from product of innovation processes of more than one-lag. Extensive numerical comparisons between the proposed method and both the original Belanger's and Berry–Sauer's schemes are shown in various examples, ranging from low-dimensional linear and nonlinear systems of SDEs and 40-dimensional stochastically forced Lorenz-96 model. Our numerical results suggest that the proposed scheme is as accurate as the original Belanger's scheme on low-dimensional problems and has a wider range of more accurate estimates compared to Berry–Sauer's method on L-96 example.« less

  16. Objectivity and validity of EMG method in estimating anaerobic threshold.

    PubMed

    Kang, S-K; Kim, J; Kwon, M; Eom, H

    2014-08-01

    The purposes of this study were to verify and compare the performances of anaerobic threshold (AT) point estimates among different filtering intervals (9, 15, 20, 25, 30 s) and to investigate the interrelationships of AT point estimates obtained by ventilatory threshold (VT) and muscle fatigue thresholds using electromyographic (EMG) activity during incremental exercise on a cycle ergometer. 69 untrained male university students, yet pursuing regular exercise voluntarily participated in this study. The incremental exercise protocol was applied with a consistent stepwise increase in power output of 20 watts per minute until exhaustion. AT point was also estimated in the same manner using V-slope program with gas exchange parameters. In general, the estimated values of AT point-time computed by EMG method were more consistent across 5 filtering intervals and demonstrated higher correlations among themselves when compared with those values obtained by VT method. The results found in the present study suggest that the EMG signals could be used as an alternative or a new option in estimating AT point. Also the proposed computing procedure implemented in Matlab for the analysis of EMG signals appeared to be valid and reliable as it produced nearly identical values and high correlations with VT estimates. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  17. Comparison of two parametric methods to estimate pesticide mass loads in California's Central Valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Saleh, Dina K.; Lorenz, David L.; Domagalski, Joseph L.

    2011-01-01

    Mass loadings were calculated for four pesticides in two watersheds with different land uses in the Central Valley, California, by using two parametric models: (1) the Seasonal Wave model (SeaWave), in which a pulse signal is used to describe the annual cycle of pesticide occurrence in a stream, and (2) the Sine Wave model, in which first-order Fourier series sine and cosine terms are used to simulate seasonal mass loading patterns. The models were applied to data collected during water years 1997 through 2005. The pesticides modeled were carbaryl, diazinon, metolachlor, and molinate. Results from the two models show that the ability to capture seasonal variations in pesticide concentrations was affected by pesticide use patterns and the methods by which pesticides are transported to streams. Estimated seasonal loads compared well with results from previous studies for both models. Loads estimated by the two models did not differ significantly from each other, with the exceptions of carbaryl and molinate during the precipitation season, where loads were affected by application patterns and rainfall. However, in watersheds with variable and intermittent pesticide applications, the SeaWave model is more suitable for use on the basis of its robust capability of describing seasonal variation of pesticide concentrations.

  18. Fiber estimation and tractography in diffusion MRI: Development of simulated brain images and comparison of multi-fiber analysis methods at clinical b-values

    PubMed Central

    Wilkins, Bryce; Lee, Namgyun; Gajawelli, Niharika; Law, Meng; Leporé, Natasha

    2015-01-01

    Advances in diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) have led to many alternative diffusion sampling strategies and analysis methodologies. A common objective among methods is estimation of white matter fiber orientations within each voxel, as doing so permits in-vivo fiber-tracking and the ability to study brain connectivity and networks. Knowledge of how DW-MRI sampling schemes affect fiber estimation accuracy, and consequently tractography and the ability to recover complex white-matter pathways, as well as differences between results due to choice of analysis method and which method(s) perform optimally for specific data sets, all remain important problems, especially as tractography-based studies become common. In this work we begin to address these concerns by developing sets of simulated diffusion-weighted brain images which we then use to quantitatively evaluate the performance of six DW-MRI analysis methods in terms of estimated fiber orientation accuracy, false-positive (spurious) and false-negative (missing) fiber rates, and fiber-tracking. The analysis methods studied are: 1) a two-compartment “ball and stick” model (BSM) (Behrens et al., 2003); 2) a non-negativity constrained spherical deconvolution (CSD) approach (Tournier et al., 2007); 3) analytical q-ball imaging (QBI) (Descoteaux et al., 2007); 4) q-ball imaging with Funk-Radon and Cosine Transform (FRACT) (Haldar and Leahy, 2013); 5) q-ball imaging within constant solid angle (CSA) (Aganj et al., 2010); and 6) a generalized Fourier transform approach known as generalized q-sampling imaging (GQI) (Yeh et al., 2010). We investigate these methods using 20, 30, 40, 60, 90 and 120 evenly distributed q-space samples of a single shell, and focus on a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR = 18) and diffusion-weighting (b = 1000 s/mm2) common to clinical studies. We found the BSM and CSD methods consistently yielded the least fiber orientation error and simultaneously greatest detection rate of

  19. Fiber estimation and tractography in diffusion MRI: development of simulated brain images and comparison of multi-fiber analysis methods at clinical b-values.

    PubMed

    Wilkins, Bryce; Lee, Namgyun; Gajawelli, Niharika; Law, Meng; Leporé, Natasha

    2015-04-01

    Advances in diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) have led to many alternative diffusion sampling strategies and analysis methodologies. A common objective among methods is estimation of white matter fiber orientations within each voxel, as doing so permits in-vivo fiber-tracking and the ability to study brain connectivity and networks. Knowledge of how DW-MRI sampling schemes affect fiber estimation accuracy, tractography and the ability to recover complex white-matter pathways, differences between results due to choice of analysis method, and which method(s) perform optimally for specific data sets, all remain important problems, especially as tractography-based studies become common. In this work, we begin to address these concerns by developing sets of simulated diffusion-weighted brain images which we then use to quantitatively evaluate the performance of six DW-MRI analysis methods in terms of estimated fiber orientation accuracy, false-positive (spurious) and false-negative (missing) fiber rates, and fiber-tracking. The analysis methods studied are: 1) a two-compartment "ball and stick" model (BSM) (Behrens et al., 2003); 2) a non-negativity constrained spherical deconvolution (CSD) approach (Tournier et al., 2007); 3) analytical q-ball imaging (QBI) (Descoteaux et al., 2007); 4) q-ball imaging with Funk-Radon and Cosine Transform (FRACT) (Haldar and Leahy, 2013); 5) q-ball imaging within constant solid angle (CSA) (Aganj et al., 2010); and 6) a generalized Fourier transform approach known as generalized q-sampling imaging (GQI) (Yeh et al., 2010). We investigate these methods using 20, 30, 40, 60, 90 and 120 evenly distributed q-space samples of a single shell, and focus on a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR = 18) and diffusion-weighting (b = 1000 s/mm(2)) common to clinical studies. We found that the BSM and CSD methods consistently yielded the least fiber orientation error and simultaneously greatest detection rate of fibers. Fiber detection

  20. A comparison of groundwater recharge estimation methods in a semi-arid, coastal avocado and citrus orchard (Ventura County, California)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grismer, Mark E.; Bachman, S.; Powers, T.

    2000-10-01

    We assess the relative merits of application of the most commonly used field methods (soil-water balance (SWB), chloride mass balance (CMB) and soil moisture monitoring (NP)) to determine recharge rates in micro-irrigated and non-irrigated areas of a semi-arid coastal orchard located in a relatively complex geological environment.Application of the CMB method to estimate recharge rates was difficult owing to the unusually high, variable soil-water chloride concentrations. In addition, contrary to that expected, the chloride concentration distribution at depths below the root zone in the non-irrigated soil profiles was greater than that in the irrigated profiles. The CMB method severely underestimated recharge rates in the non-irrigated areas when compared with the other methods, although the CMB method estimated recharge rates for the irrigated areas, that were similar to those from the other methods, ranging from 42 to 141 mm/year.The SWB method, constructed for a 15-year period, provided insight into the recharge process being driven by winter rains rather than summer irrigation and indicated an average rate of 75 mm/year and 164 mm/year for the 1984 - 98 and 1996 - 98 periods, respectively. Assuming similar soil-water holding capacity, these recharge rates applied to both irrigated and non-irrigated areas. Use of the long period of record was important because it encompassed both drought and heavy rainfall years. Successful application of the SWB method, however, required considerable additional field measurements of orchard ETc, soil-water holding capacity and estimation of rainfall interception - runoff losses.Continuous soil moisture monitoring (NP) was necessary to identify both daily and seasonal seepage processes to corroborate the other recharge estimates. Measured recharge rates during the 1996 - 1998 period in both the orchards and non-irrigated site averaged 180 mm/year. The pattern of soil profile drying during the summer irrigation season, followed

  1. Is Approximate Number Precision a Stable Predictor of Math Ability?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Libertus, Melissa E.; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

    2013-01-01

    Previous research shows that children's ability to estimate numbers of items using their Approximate Number System (ANS) predicts later math ability. To more closely examine the predictive role of early ANS acuity on later abilities, we assessed the ANS acuity, math ability, and expressive vocabulary of preschoolers twice, six months apart. We…

  2. Estimation of Two-Parameter Logistic Item Response Curves. Research Report 83-1. Mathematical Sciences Technical Report No. 130.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsutakawa, Robert K.

    This paper presents a method for estimating certain characteristics of test items which are designed to measure ability, or knowledge, in a particular area. Under the assumption that ability parameters are sampled from a normal distribution, the EM algorithm is used to derive maximum likelihood estimates to item parameters of the two-parameter…

  3. Causal inference with measurement error in outcomes: Bias analysis and estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Shu, Di; Yi, Grace Y

    2017-01-01

    Inverse probability weighting estimation has been popularly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect. Its validity, however, is challenged by the presence of error-prone variables. In this paper, we explore the inverse probability weighting estimation with mismeasured outcome variables. We study the impact of measurement error for both continuous and discrete outcome variables and reveal interesting consequences of the naive analysis which ignores measurement error. When a continuous outcome variable is mismeasured under an additive measurement error model, the naive analysis may still yield a consistent estimator; when the outcome is binary, we derive the asymptotic bias in a closed-form. Furthermore, we develop consistent estimation procedures for practical scenarios where either validation data or replicates are available. With validation data, we propose an efficient method for estimation of average treatment effect; the efficiency gain is substantial relative to usual methods of using validation data. To provide protection against model misspecification, we further propose a doubly robust estimator which is consistent even when either the treatment model or the outcome model is misspecified. Simulation studies are reported to assess the performance of the proposed methods. An application to a smoking cessation dataset is presented.

  4. A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations

    PubMed Central

    He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

    2015-01-01

    Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. PMID:26463656

  5. Accurate motion parameter estimation for colonoscopy tracking using a regression method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jianfei; Subramanian, Kalpathi R.; Yoo, Terry S.

    2010-03-01

    Co-located optical and virtual colonoscopy images have the potential to provide important clinical information during routine colonoscopy procedures. In our earlier work, we presented an optical flow based algorithm to compute egomotion from live colonoscopy video, permitting navigation and visualization of the corresponding patient anatomy. In the original algorithm, motion parameters were estimated using the traditional Least Sum of squares(LS) procedure which can be unstable in the context of optical flow vectors with large errors. In the improved algorithm, we use the Least Median of Squares (LMS) method, a robust regression method for motion parameter estimation. Using the LMS method, we iteratively analyze and converge toward the main distribution of the flow vectors, while disregarding outliers. We show through three experiments the improvement in tracking results obtained using the LMS method, in comparison to the LS estimator. The first experiment demonstrates better spatial accuracy in positioning the virtual camera in the sigmoid colon. The second and third experiments demonstrate the robustness of this estimator, resulting in longer tracked sequences: from 300 to 1310 in the ascending colon, and 410 to 1316 in the transverse colon.

  6. A review of models and micrometeorological methods used to estimate wetland evapotranspiration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Drexler, J.Z.; Snyder, R.L.; Spano, D.; Paw, U.K.T.

    2004-01-01

    Within the past decade or so, the accuracy of evapotranspiration (ET) estimates has improved due to new and increasingly sophisticated methods. Yet despite a plethora of choices concerning methods, estimation of wetland ET remains insufficiently characterized due to the complexity of surface characteristics and the diversity of wetland types. In this review, we present models and micrometeorological methods that have been used to estimate wetland ET and discuss their suitability for particular wetland types. Hydrological, soil monitoring and lysimetric methods to determine ET are not discussed. Our review shows that, due to the variability and complexity of wetlands, there is no single approach that is the best for estimating wetland ET. Furthermore, there is no single foolproof method to obtain an accurate, independent measure of wetland ET. Because all of the methods reviewed, with the exception of eddy covariance and LIDAR, require measurements of net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G), highly accurate measurements of these energy components are key to improving measurements of wetland ET. Many of the major methods used to determine ET can be applied successfully to wetlands of uniform vegetation and adequate fetch, however, certain caveats apply. For example, with accurate Rn and G data and small Bowen ratio (??) values, the Bowen ratio energy balance method can give accurate estimates of wetland ET. However, large errors in latent heat flux density can occur near sunrise and sunset when the Bowen ratio ?? ??? - 1??0. The eddy covariance method provides a direct measurement of latent heat flux density (??E) and sensible heat flux density (II), yet this method requires considerable expertise and expensive instrumentation to implement. A clear advantage of using the eddy covariance method is that ??E can be compared with Rn-G H, thereby allowing for an independent test of accuracy. The surface renewal method is inexpensive to replicate and, therefore, shows

  7. Investigating the Stability of Four Methods for Estimating Item Bias.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perlman, Carole L.; And Others

    The reliability of item bias estimates was studied for four methods: (1) the transformed delta method; (2) Shepard's modified delta method; (3) Rasch's one-parameter residual analysis; and (4) the Mantel-Haenszel procedure. Bias statistics were computed for each sample using all methods. Data were from administration of multiple-choice items from…

  8. Estimating the circuit delay of FPGA with a transfer learning method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Xiuhai; Liu, Datong; Peng, Yu; Peng, Xiyuan

    2017-10-01

    With the increase of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array, FPGA) functionality, FPGA has become an on-chip system platform. Due to increase the complexity of FPGA, estimating the delay of FPGA is a very challenge work. To solve the problems, we propose a transfer learning estimation delay (TLED) method to simplify the delay estimation of different speed grade FPGA. In fact, the same style different speed grade FPGA comes from the same process and layout. The delay has some correlation among different speed grade FPGA. Therefore, one kind of speed grade FPGA is chosen as a basic training sample in this paper. Other training samples of different speed grade can get from the basic training samples through of transfer learning. At the same time, we also select a few target FPGA samples as training samples. A general predictive model is trained by these samples. Thus one kind of estimation model is used to estimate different speed grade FPGA circuit delay. The framework of TRED includes three phases: 1) Building a basic circuit delay library which includes multipliers, adders, shifters, and so on. These circuits are used to train and build the predictive model. 2) By contrasting experiments among different algorithms, the forest random algorithm is selected to train predictive model. 3) The target circuit delay is predicted by the predictive model. The Artix-7, Kintex-7, and Virtex-7 are selected to do experiments. Each of them includes -1, -2, -2l, and -3 different speed grade. The experiments show the delay estimation accuracy score is more than 92% with the TLED method. This result shows that the TLED method is a feasible delay assessment method, especially in the high-level synthesis stage of FPGA tool, which is an efficient and effective delay assessment method.

  9. Novel Method for Quantitative Estimation of Biofilms.

    PubMed

    Syal, Kirtimaan

    2017-10-01

    Biofilm protects bacteria from stress and hostile environment. Crystal violet (CV) assay is the most popular method for biofilm determination adopted by different laboratories so far. However, biofilm layer formed at the liquid-air interphase known as pellicle is extremely sensitive to its washing and staining steps. Early phase biofilms are also prone to damage by the latter steps. In bacteria like mycobacteria, biofilm formation occurs largely at the liquid-air interphase which is susceptible to loss. In the proposed protocol, loss of such biofilm layer was prevented. In place of inverting and discarding the media which can lead to the loss of the aerobic biofilm layer in CV assay, media was removed from the formed biofilm with the help of a syringe and biofilm layer was allowed to dry. The staining and washing steps were avoided, and an organic solvent-tetrahydrofuran (THF) was deployed to dissolve the biofilm, and the absorbance was recorded at 595 nm. The protocol was tested for biofilm estimation of E. coli, B. subtilis and M. smegmatis, and compared with the traditional CV assays. Isoniazid drug molecule, a known inhibitor of M. smegmatis biofilm, was tested and its inhibitory effects were quantified by the proposed protocol. For ease in referring, this method has been described as the Syal method for biofilm quantification. This new method was found to be useful for the estimation of early phase biofilm and aerobic biofilm layer formed at the liquid-air interphase. The biofilms formed by all three tested bacteria-B. subtilis, E. coli and M. smegmatis, were precisely quantified.

  10. An estimation of distribution method for infrared target detection based on Copulas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shuo; Zhang, Yiqun

    2015-10-01

    Track-before-detect (TBD) based target detection involves a hypothesis test of merit functions which measure each track as a possible target track. Its accuracy depends on the precision of the distribution of merit functions, which determines the threshold for a test. Generally, merit functions are regarded Gaussian, and on this basis the distribution is estimated, which is true for most methods such as the multiple hypothesis tracking (MHT). However, merit functions for some other methods such as the dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) are non-Guassian and cross-correlated. Since existing methods cannot reasonably measure the correlation, the exact distribution can hardly be estimated. If merit functions are assumed Guassian and independent, the error between an actual distribution and its approximation may occasionally over 30 percent, and is divergent by propagation. Hence, in this paper, we propose a novel estimation of distribution method based on Copulas, by which the distribution can be estimated precisely, where the error is less than 1 percent without propagation. Moreover, the estimation merely depends on the form of merit functions and the structure of a tracking algorithm, and is invariant to measurements. Thus, the distribution can be estimated in advance, greatly reducing the demand for real-time calculation of distribution functions.

  11. Revised motion estimation algorithm for PROPELLER MRI.

    PubMed

    Pipe, James G; Gibbs, Wende N; Li, Zhiqiang; Karis, John P; Schar, Michael; Zwart, Nicholas R

    2014-08-01

    To introduce a new algorithm for estimating data shifts (used for both rotation and translation estimates) for motion-corrected PROPELLER MRI. The method estimates shifts for all blades jointly, emphasizing blade-pair correlations that are both strong and more robust to noise. The heads of three volunteers were scanned using a PROPELLER acquisition while they exhibited various amounts of motion. All data were reconstructed twice, using motion estimates from the original and new algorithm. Two radiologists independently and blindly compared 216 image pairs from these scans, ranking the left image as substantially better or worse than, slightly better or worse than, or equivalent to the right image. In the aggregate of 432 scores, the new method was judged substantially better than the old method 11 times, and was never judged substantially worse. The new algorithm compared favorably with the old in its ability to estimate bulk motion in a limited study of volunteer motion. A larger study of patients is planned for future work. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Estimating Rooftop Suitability for PV: A Review of Methods, Patents, and Validation Techniques

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Melius, J.; Margolis, R.; Ong, S.

    2013-12-01

    A number of methods have been developed using remote sensing data to estimate rooftop area suitable for the installation of photovoltaics (PV) at various geospatial resolutions. This report reviews the literature and patents on methods for estimating rooftop-area appropriate for PV, including constant-value methods, manual selection methods, and GIS-based methods. This report also presents NREL's proposed method for estimating suitable rooftop area for PV using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in conjunction with a GIS model to predict areas with appropriate slope, orientation, and sunlight. NREL's method is validated against solar installation data from New Jersey, Colorado, and Californiamore » to compare modeled results to actual on-the-ground measurements.« less

  13. Improved atmospheric effect elimination method for the roughness estimation of painted surfaces.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ying; Xuan, Jiabin; Zhao, Huijie; Song, Ping; Zhang, Yi; Xu, Wujian

    2018-03-01

    We propose a method for eliminating the atmospheric effect in polarimetric imaging remote sensing by using polarimetric imagers to simultaneously detect ground targets and skylight, which does not need calibrated targets. In addition, calculation efficiencies are improved by the skylight division method without losing estimation accuracy. Outdoor experiments are performed to obtain the polarimetric bidirectional reflectance distribution functions of painted surfaces and skylight under different weather conditions. Finally, the roughness of the painted surfaces is estimated. We find that the estimation accuracy with the proposed method is 6% on cloudy weather, while it is 30.72% without atmospheric effect elimination.

  14. Prediction of distribution coefficient from structure. 1. Estimation method.

    PubMed

    Csizmadia, F; Tsantili-Kakoulidou, A; Panderi, I; Darvas, F

    1997-07-01

    A method has been developed for the estimation of the distribution coefficient (D), which considers the microspecies of a compound. D is calculated from the microscopic dissociation constants (microconstants), the partition coefficients of the microspecies, and the counterion concentration. A general equation for the calculation of D at a given pH is presented. The microconstants are calculated from the structure using Hammett and Taft equations. The partition coefficients of the ionic microspecies are predicted by empirical equations using the dissociation constants and the partition coefficient of the uncharged species, which are estimated from the structure by a Linear Free Energy Relationship method. The algorithm is implemented in a program module called PrologD.

  15. Ring profiler: a new method for estimating tree-ring density for improved estimates of carbon storage

    Treesearch

    David W. Vahey; C. Tim Scott; J.Y. Zhu; Kenneth E. Skog

    2012-01-01

    Methods for estimating present and future carbon storage in trees and forests rely on measurements or estimates of tree volume or volume growth multiplied by specific gravity. Wood density can vary by tree ring and height in a tree. If data on density by tree ring could be obtained and linked to tree size and stand characteristics, it would be possible to more...

  16. A Normalized Direct Approach for Estimating the Parameters of the Normal Ogive Three-Parameter Model for Ability Tests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gugel, John F.

    A new method for estimating the parameters of the normal ogive three-parameter model for multiple-choice test items--the normalized direct (NDIR) procedure--is examined. The procedure is compared to a more commonly used estimation procedure, Lord's LOGIST, using computer simulations. The NDIR procedure uses the normalized (mid-percentile)…

  17. A biphasic parameter estimation method for quantitative analysis of dynamic renal scintigraphic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, T. S.; Zhang, Jeff L.; Ong, C. K.; Shuter, B.

    2006-06-01

    Dynamic renal scintigraphy is an established method in nuclear medicine, commonly used for the assessment of renal function. In this paper, a biphasic model fitting method is proposed for simultaneous estimation of both vascular and parenchymal parameters from renal scintigraphic data. These parameters include the renal plasma flow, vascular and parenchymal mean transit times, and the glomerular extraction rate. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the stability and confidence of the parameter estimates obtained by the proposed biphasic method, before applying the method on actual patient study cases to compare with the conventional fitting approach and other established renal indices. The various parameter estimates obtained using the proposed method were found to be consistent with the respective pathologies of the study cases. The renal plasma flow and extraction rate estimated by the proposed method were in good agreement with those previously obtained using dynamic computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging.

  18. Quantitative Genetics in the Era of Molecular Genetics: Learning Abilities and Disabilities as an Example

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haworth, Claire M. A.; Plomin, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To consider recent findings from quantitative genetic research in the context of molecular genetic research, especially genome-wide association studies. We focus on findings that go beyond merely estimating heritability. We use learning abilities and disabilities as examples. Method: Recent twin research in the area of learning…

  19. Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, M.; Liu, P.; Beerli, P.; Lu, D.; Hill, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used to evaluate model probability for quantifying model uncertainty. In a general procedure, MCMC simulations are first conducted for each individual model, and MCMC parameter samples are then used to approximate marginal likelihood of the model by calculating the geometric mean of the joint likelihood of the model and its parameters. It has been found the method of evaluating geometric mean suffers from the numerical problem of low convergence rate. A simple test case shows that even millions of MCMC samples are insufficient to yield accurate estimation of the marginal likelihood. To resolve this problem, a thermodynamic method is used to have multiple MCMC runs with different values of a heating coefficient between zero and one. When the heating coefficient is zero, the MCMC run is equivalent to a random walk MC in the prior parameter space; when the heating coefficient is one, the MCMC run is the conventional one. For a simple case with analytical form of the marginal likelihood, the thermodynamic method yields more accurate estimate than the method of using geometric mean. This is also demonstrated for a case of groundwater modeling with consideration of four alternative models postulated based on different conceptualization of a confining layer. This groundwater example shows that model probabilities estimated using the thermodynamic method are more reasonable than those obtained using the geometric method. The thermodynamic method is general, and can be used for a wide range of environmental problem for model uncertainty quantification.

  20. Effect of patient selection method on provider group performance estimates.

    PubMed

    Thorpe, Carolyn T; Flood, Grace E; Kraft, Sally A; Everett, Christine M; Smith, Maureen A

    2011-08-01

    Performance measurement at the provider group level is increasingly advocated, but different methods for selecting patients when calculating provider group performance have received little evaluation. We compared 2 currently used methods according to characteristics of the patients selected and impact on performance estimates. We analyzed Medicare claims data for fee-for-service beneficiaries with diabetes ever seen at an academic multispeciality physician group in 2003 to 2004. We examined sample size, sociodemographics, clinical characteristics, and receipt of recommended diabetes monitoring in 2004 for the groups of patients selected using 2 methods implemented in large-scale performance initiatives: the Plurality Provider Algorithm and the Diabetes Care Home method. We examined differences among discordantly assigned patients to determine evidence for differential selection regarding these measures. Fewer patients were selected under the Diabetes Care Home method (n=3558) than the Plurality Provider Algorithm (n=4859). Compared with the Plurality Provider Algorithm, the Diabetes Care Home method preferentially selected patients who were female, not entitled because of disability, older, more likely to have hypertension, and less likely to have kidney disease and peripheral vascular disease, and had lower levels of predicted utilization. Diabetes performance was higher under Diabetes Care Home method, with 67% versus 58% receiving >1 A1c tests, 70% versus 65% receiving ≥1 low-density lipoprotein (LDL) test, and 38% versus 37% receiving an eye examination. The method used to select patients when calculating provider group performance may affect patient case mix and estimated performance levels, and warrants careful consideration when comparing performance estimates.

  1. Source signature estimation from multimode surface waves via mode-separated virtual real source method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Lingli; Pan, Yudi

    2018-05-01

    The correct estimation of the seismic source signature is crucial to exploration geophysics. Based on seismic interferometry, the virtual real source (VRS) method provides a model-independent way for source signature estimation. However, when encountering multimode surface waves, which are commonly seen in the shallow seismic survey, strong spurious events appear in seismic interferometric results. These spurious events introduce errors in the virtual-source recordings and reduce the accuracy of the source signature estimated by the VRS method. In order to estimate a correct source signature from multimode surface waves, we propose a mode-separated VRS method. In this method, multimode surface waves are mode separated before seismic interferometry. Virtual-source recordings are then obtained by applying seismic interferometry to each mode individually. Therefore, artefacts caused by cross-mode correlation are excluded in the virtual-source recordings and the estimated source signatures. A synthetic example showed that a correct source signature can be estimated with the proposed method, while strong spurious oscillation occurs in the estimated source signature if we do not apply mode separation first. We also applied the proposed method to a field example, which verified its validity and effectiveness in estimating seismic source signature from shallow seismic shot gathers containing multimode surface waves.

  2. A method to estimate stellar ages from kinematical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almeida-Fernandes, F.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.

    2018-05-01

    We present a method to build a probability density function (PDF) for the age of a star based on its peculiar velocities U, V, and W and its orbital eccentricity. The sample used in this work comes from the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) that contains the spatial velocities, orbital eccentricities, and isochronal ages for about 14 000 stars. Using the GCS stars, we fitted the parameters that describe the relations between the distributions of kinematical properties and age. This parametrization allows us to obtain an age probability from the kinematical data. From this age PDF, we estimate an individual average age for the star using the most likely age and the expected age. We have obtained the stellar age PDF for the age of 9102 stars from the GCS and have shown that the distribution of individual ages derived from our method is in good agreement with the distribution of isochronal ages. We also observe a decline in the mean metallicity with our ages for stars younger than 7 Gyr, similar to the one observed for isochronal ages. This method can be useful for the estimation of rough stellar ages for those stars that fall in areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where isochrones are tightly crowded. As an example of this method, we estimate the age of Trappist-1, which is a M8V star, obtaining the age of t(UVW) = 12.50(+0.29 - 6.23) Gyr.

  3. Parameter estimation of kinetic models from metabolic profiles: two-phase dynamic decoupling method.

    PubMed

    Jia, Gengjie; Stephanopoulos, Gregory N; Gunawan, Rudiyanto

    2011-07-15

    Time-series measurements of metabolite concentration have become increasingly more common, providing data for building kinetic models of metabolic networks using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In practice, however, such time-course data are usually incomplete and noisy, and the estimation of kinetic parameters from these data is challenging. Practical limitations due to data and computational aspects, such as solving stiff ODEs and finding global optimal solution to the estimation problem, give motivations to develop a new estimation procedure that can circumvent some of these constraints. In this work, an incremental and iterative parameter estimation method is proposed that combines and iterates between two estimation phases. One phase involves a decoupling method, in which a subset of model parameters that are associated with measured metabolites, are estimated using the minimization of slope errors. Another phase follows, in which the ODE model is solved one equation at a time and the remaining model parameters are obtained by minimizing concentration errors. The performance of this two-phase method was tested on a generic branched metabolic pathway and the glycolytic pathway of Lactococcus lactis. The results showed that the method is efficient in getting accurate parameter estimates, even when some information is missing.

  4. Loss Factor Estimation Using the Impulse Response Decay Method on a Stiffened Structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cabell, Randolph; Schiller, Noah; Allen, Albert; Moeller, Mark

    2009-01-01

    High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.

  5. Estimating Spectra from Photometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalmbach, J. Bryce; Connolly, Andrew J.

    2017-12-01

    Measuring the physical properties of galaxies such as redshift frequently requires the use of spectral energy distributions (SEDs). SED template sets are, however, often small in number and cover limited portions of photometric color space. Here we present a new method to estimate SEDs as a function of color from a small training set of template SEDs. We first cover the mathematical background behind the technique before demonstrating our ability to reconstruct spectra based upon colors and then compare our results to other common interpolation and extrapolation methods. When the photometric filters and spectra overlap, we show that the error in the estimated spectra is reduced by more than 65% compared to the more commonly used techniques. We also show an expansion of the method to wavelengths beyond the range of the photometric filters. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our technique by generating 50 additional SED templates from an original set of 10 and by applying the new set to photometric redshift estimation. We are able to reduce the photometric redshifts standard deviation by at least 22.0% and the outlier rejected bias by over 86.2% compared to original set for z ≤ 3.

  6. Online estimation of room reverberation time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratnam, Rama; Jones, Douglas L.; Wheeler, Bruce C.; Feng, Albert S.

    2003-04-01

    The reverberation time (RT) is an important parameter for characterizing the quality of an auditory space. Sounds in reverberant environments are subject to coloration. This affects speech intelligibility and sound localization. State-of-the-art signal processing algorithms for hearing aids are expected to have the ability to evaluate the characteristics of the listening environment and turn on an appropriate processing strategy accordingly. Thus, a method for the characterization of room RT based on passively received microphone signals represents an important enabling technology. Current RT estimators, such as Schroeder's method or regression, depend on a controlled sound source, and thus cannot produce an online, blind RT estimate. Here, we describe a method for estimating RT without prior knowledge of sound sources or room geometry. The diffusive tail of reverberation was modeled as an exponentially damped Gaussian white noise process. The time constant of the decay, which provided a measure of the RT, was estimated using a maximum-likelihood procedure. The estimates were obtained continuously, and an order-statistics filter was used to extract the most likely RT from the accumulated estimates. The procedure was illustrated for connected speech. Results obtained for simulated and real room data are in good agreement with the real RT values.

  7. Comparison of Experimental Methods for Estimating Matrix Diffusion Coefficients for Contaminant Transport Modeling

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Telfeyan, Katherine Christina; Ware, Stuart Douglas; Reimus, Paul William

    Diffusion cell and diffusion wafer experiments were conducted to compare methods for estimating matrix diffusion coefficients in rock core samples from Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS). A diffusion wafer method, in which a solute diffuses out of a rock matrix that is pre-saturated with water containing the solute, is presented as a simpler alternative to the traditional through-diffusion (diffusion cell) method. Both methods yielded estimates of matrix diffusion coefficients that were within the range of values previously reported for NNSS volcanic rocks. The difference between the estimates of the two methods ranged from 14 to 30%,more » and there was no systematic high or low bias of one method relative to the other. From a transport modeling perspective, these differences are relatively minor when one considers that other variables (e.g., fracture apertures, fracture spacings) influence matrix diffusion to a greater degree and tend to have greater uncertainty than diffusion coefficients. For the same relative random errors in concentration measurements, the diffusion cell method yields diffusion coefficient estimates that have less uncertainty than the wafer method. However, the wafer method is easier and less costly to implement and yields estimates more quickly, thus allowing a greater number of samples to be analyzed for the same cost and time. Given the relatively good agreement between the methods, and the lack of any apparent bias between the methods, the diffusion wafer method appears to offer advantages over the diffusion cell method if better statistical representation of a given set of rock samples is desired.« less

  8. Comparison of experimental methods for estimating matrix diffusion coefficients for contaminant transport modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telfeyan, Katherine; Ware, S. Doug; Reimus, Paul W.; Birdsell, Kay H.

    2018-02-01

    Diffusion cell and diffusion wafer experiments were conducted to compare methods for estimating effective matrix diffusion coefficients in rock core samples from Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS). A diffusion wafer method, in which a solute diffuses out of a rock matrix that is pre-saturated with water containing the solute, is presented as a simpler alternative to the traditional through-diffusion (diffusion cell) method. Both methods yielded estimates of effective matrix diffusion coefficients that were within the range of values previously reported for NNSS volcanic rocks. The difference between the estimates of the two methods ranged from 14 to 30%, and there was no systematic high or low bias of one method relative to the other. From a transport modeling perspective, these differences are relatively minor when one considers that other variables (e.g., fracture apertures, fracture spacings) influence matrix diffusion to a greater degree and tend to have greater uncertainty than effective matrix diffusion coefficients. For the same relative random errors in concentration measurements, the diffusion cell method yields effective matrix diffusion coefficient estimates that have less uncertainty than the wafer method. However, the wafer method is easier and less costly to implement and yields estimates more quickly, thus allowing a greater number of samples to be analyzed for the same cost and time. Given the relatively good agreement between the methods, and the lack of any apparent bias between the methods, the diffusion wafer method appears to offer advantages over the diffusion cell method if better statistical representation of a given set of rock samples is desired.

  9. Performance of sampling methods to estimate log characteristics for wildlife.

    Treesearch

    Lisa J. Bate; Torolf R. Torgersen; Michael J. Wisdom; Edward O. Garton

    2004-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the characteristics of log resources, or coarse woody debris (CWD), is critical to effective management of wildlife and other forest resources. Despite the importance of logs as wildlife habitat, methods for sampling logs have traditionally focused on silvicultural and fire applications. These applications have emphasized estimates of log volume...

  10. Socioeconomic Position Across the Life Course and Cognitive Ability Later in Life: The Importance of Considering Early Cognitive Ability.

    PubMed

    Foverskov, Else; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Holm, Anders; Pedersen, Jolene Lee Masters; Osler, Merete; Lund, Rikke

    2017-11-01

    Investigate direct and indirect associations between markers of socioeconomic position (SEP) across the life course and midlife cognitive ability while addressing methodological limitations in prior work. Longitudinal data from the Danish Metropolit cohort of men born in 1953 ( N = 2,479) who completed ability tests at age 12, 18, and 56-58 linked to register-based information on paternal occupational class, educational attainment, and occupational level. Associations were assessed using structural equation models, and different models were estimated to examine the importance of accounting for childhood ability and measurement error. Associations between adult SEP measures and midlife ability decreased significantly when adjusting for childhood ability and measurement error. The association between childhood and midlife ability was by far the strongest. The impact of adult SEP on later life ability may be exaggerated when not accounting for the stability of individual differences in cognitive ability and measurement error in test scores.

  11. A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations.

    PubMed

    He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

    2015-12-01

    Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. © 2015 He et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

  12. A subagging regression method for estimating the qualitative and quantitative state of groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, J.; Park, E.; Choi, J.; Han, W. S.; Yun, S. T.

    2016-12-01

    A subagging regression (SBR) method for the analysis of groundwater data pertaining to the estimation of trend and the associated uncertainty is proposed. The SBR method is validated against synthetic data competitively with other conventional robust and non-robust methods. From the results, it is verified that the estimation accuracies of the SBR method are consistent and superior to those of the other methods and the uncertainties are reasonably estimated where the others have no uncertainty analysis option. To validate further, real quantitative and qualitative data are employed and analyzed comparatively with Gaussian process regression (GPR). For all cases, the trend and the associated uncertainties are reasonably estimated by SBR, whereas the GPR has limitations in representing the variability of non-Gaussian skewed data. From the implementations, it is determined that the SBR method has potential to be further developed as an effective tool of anomaly detection or outlier identification in groundwater state data.

  13. Deterministic absorbed dose estimation in computed tomography using a discrete ordinates method

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Norris, Edward T.; Liu, Xin, E-mail: xinliu@mst.edu; Hsieh, Jiang

    Purpose: Organ dose estimation for a patient undergoing computed tomography (CT) scanning is very important. Although Monte Carlo methods are considered gold-standard in patient dose estimation, the computation time required is formidable for routine clinical calculations. Here, the authors instigate a deterministic method for estimating an absorbed dose more efficiently. Methods: Compared with current Monte Carlo methods, a more efficient approach to estimating the absorbed dose is to solve the linear Boltzmann equation numerically. In this study, an axial CT scan was modeled with a software package, Denovo, which solved the linear Boltzmann equation using the discrete ordinates method. Themore » CT scanning configuration included 16 x-ray source positions, beam collimators, flat filters, and bowtie filters. The phantom was the standard 32 cm CT dose index (CTDI) phantom. Four different Denovo simulations were performed with different simulation parameters, including the number of quadrature sets and the order of Legendre polynomial expansions. A Monte Carlo simulation was also performed for benchmarking the Denovo simulations. A quantitative comparison was made of the simulation results obtained by the Denovo and the Monte Carlo methods. Results: The difference in the simulation results of the discrete ordinates method and those of the Monte Carlo methods was found to be small, with a root-mean-square difference of around 2.4%. It was found that the discrete ordinates method, with a higher order of Legendre polynomial expansions, underestimated the absorbed dose near the center of the phantom (i.e., low dose region). Simulations of the quadrature set 8 and the first order of the Legendre polynomial expansions proved to be the most efficient computation method in the authors’ study. The single-thread computation time of the deterministic simulation of the quadrature set 8 and the first order of the Legendre polynomial expansions was 21 min on a personal

  14. Estimating watershed level nonagricultural pesticide use from golf courses using geospatial methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fox, G.A.; Thelin, G.P.; Sabbagh, G.J.; Fuchs, J.W.; Kelly, I.D.

    2008-01-01

    Limited information exists on pesticide use for nonagricultural purposes, making it difficult to estimate pesticide loadings from nonagricultural sources to surface water and to conduct environmental risk assessments. A method was developed to estimate the amount of pesticide use on recreational turf grasses, specifically golf course turf grasses, for watersheds located throughout the conterminous United States (U.S.). The approach estimates pesticide use: (1) based on the area of recreational turf grasses (used as a surrogate for turf associated with golf courses) within the watershed, which was derived from maps of land cover, and (2) from data on the location and average treatable area of golf courses. The area of golf course turf grasses determined from these two methods was used to calculate the percentage of each watershed planted in golf course turf grass (percent crop area, or PCA). Turf-grass PCAs derived from the two methods were used with recommended application rates provided on pesticide labels to estimate total pesticide use on recreational turf within 1,606 watersheds associated with surface-water sources of drinking water. These pesticide use estimates made from label rates and PCAs were compared to use estimates from industry sales data on the amount of each pesticide sold for use within the watershed. The PCAs derived from the land-cover data had an average value of 0.4% of a watershed with minimum of 0.01% and a maximum of 9.8%, whereas the PCA values that are based on the number of golf courses in a watershed had an average of 0.3% of a watershed with a minimum of <0.01% and a maximum of 14.2%. Both the land-cover method and the number of golf courses method produced similar PCA distributions, suggesting that either technique may be used to provide a PCA estimate for recreational turf. The average and maximum PCAs generally correlated to watershed size, with the highest PCAs estimated for small watersheds. Using watershed specific PCAs, combined

  15. Human body mass estimation: a comparison of "morphometric" and "mechanical" methods.

    PubMed

    Auerbach, Benjamin M; Ruff, Christopher B

    2004-12-01

    In the past, body mass was reconstructed from hominin skeletal remains using both "mechanical" methods which rely on the support of body mass by weight-bearing skeletal elements, and "morphometric" methods which reconstruct body mass through direct assessment of body size and shape. A previous comparison of two such techniques, using femoral head breadth (mechanical) and stature and bi-iliac breadth (morphometric), indicated a good general correspondence between them (Ruff et al. [1997] Nature 387:173-176). However, the two techniques were never systematically compared across a large group of modern humans of diverse body form. This study incorporates skeletal measures taken from 1,173 Holocene adult individuals, representing diverse geographic origins, body sizes, and body shapes. Femoral head breadth, bi-iliac breadth (after pelvic rearticulation), and long bone lengths were measured on each individual. Statures were estimated from long bone lengths using appropriate reference samples. Body masses were calculated using three available femoral head breadth (FH) formulae and the stature/bi-iliac breadth (STBIB) formula, and compared. All methods yielded similar results. Correlations between FH estimates and STBIB estimates are 0.74-0.81. Slight differences in results between the three FH estimates can be attributed to sampling differences in the original reference samples, and in particular, the body-size ranges included in those samples. There is no evidence for systematic differences in results due to differences in body proportions. Since the STBIB method was validated on other samples, and the FH methods produced similar estimates, this argues that either may be applied to skeletal remains with some confidence. 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  16. Availability of new drugs and Americans' ability to work.

    PubMed

    Lichtenberg, Frank R

    2005-04-01

    The objective of this work was the investigation of the extent to which the introduction of new drugs has increased society's ability to produce goods and services by increasing the number of hours worked per member of the working-age population. Econometric models of ability-to-work measures from data on approximately 200,000 individuals with 47 major chronic conditions observed throughout a 15-year period (1982-1996) were estimated. Under very conservative assumptions, the estimates indicate that the value of the increase in ability to work attributable to new drugs is 2.5 times as great as expenditure on new drugs. The potential of drugs to increase employee productivity should be considered in the design of drug-reimbursement policies. Conversely, policies that broadly reduce the development and utilization of new drugs may ultimately reduce our ability to produce other goods and services.

  17. Weibull Modulus Estimated by the Non-linear Least Squares Method: A Solution to Deviation Occurring in Traditional Weibull Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, T.; Griffiths, W. D.; Chen, J.

    2017-11-01

    The Maximum Likelihood method and the Linear Least Squares (LLS) method have been widely used to estimate Weibull parameters for reliability of brittle and metal materials. In the last 30 years, many researchers focused on the bias of Weibull modulus estimation, and some improvements have been achieved, especially in the case of the LLS method. However, there is a shortcoming in these methods for a specific type of data, where the lower tail deviates dramatically from the well-known linear fit in a classic LLS Weibull analysis. This deviation can be commonly found from the measured properties of materials, and previous applications of the LLS method on this kind of dataset present an unreliable linear regression. This deviation was previously thought to be due to physical flaws ( i.e., defects) contained in materials. However, this paper demonstrates that this deviation can also be caused by the linear transformation of the Weibull function, occurring in the traditional LLS method. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to carry out a Weibull analysis according to the linearized Weibull function, and the Non-linear Least Squares method (Non-LS) is instead recommended for the Weibull modulus estimation of casting properties.

  18. A variable circular-plot method for estimating bird numbers

    Treesearch

    R. T. Reynolds; J. M. Scott; R. A. Nussbaum

    1980-01-01

    A bird census method is presented that is designed for tall, structurally complex vegetation types, and rugged terrain. With this method the observer counts all birds seen or heard around a station, and estimates the horizontal distance from the station to each bird. Count periods at stations vary according to the avian community and structural complexity of the...

  19. A Survey of Methods for Computing Best Estimates of Endoatmospheric and Exoatmospheric Trajectories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bernard, William P.

    2018-01-01

    Beginning with the mathematical prediction of planetary orbits in the early seventeenth century up through the most recent developments in sensor fusion methods, many techniques have emerged that can be employed on the problem of endo and exoatmospheric trajectory estimation. Although early methods were ad hoc, the twentieth century saw the emergence of many systematic approaches to estimation theory that produced a wealth of useful techniques. The broad genesis of estimation theory has resulted in an equally broad array of mathematical principles, methods and vocabulary. Among the fundamental ideas and methods that are briefly touched on are batch and sequential processing, smoothing, estimation, and prediction, sensor fusion, sensor fusion architectures, data association, Bayesian and non Bayesian filtering, the family of Kalman filters, models of the dynamics of the phases of a rocket's flight, and asynchronous, delayed, and asequent data. Along the way, a few trajectory estimation issues are addressed and much of the vocabulary is defined.

  20. An optical flow-based method for velocity field of fluid flow estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Głomb, Grzegorz; Świrniak, Grzegorz; Mroczka, Janusz

    2017-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a method for estimating flow-velocity vector fields using the Lucas-Kanade algorithm. The optical flow measurements are based on the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique, which is commonly used in fluid mechanics laboratories in both research institutes and industry. Common approaches for an optical characterization of velocity fields base on computation of partial derivatives of the image intensity using finite differences. Nevertheless, the accuracy of velocity field computations is low due to the fact that an exact estimation of spatial derivatives is very difficult in presence of rapid intensity changes in the PIV images, caused by particles having small diameters. The method discussed in this paper solves this problem by interpolating the PIV images using Gaussian radial basis functions. This provides a significant improvement in the accuracy of the velocity estimation but, more importantly, allows for the evaluation of the derivatives in intermediate points between pixels. Numerical analysis proves that the method is able to estimate even a separate vector for each particle with a 5× 5 px2 window, whereas a classical correlation-based method needs at least 4 particle images. With the use of a specialized multi-step hybrid approach to data analysis the method improves the estimation of the particle displacement far above 1 px.

  1. A Study on the Spatial Abilities of Prospective Social Studies Teachers: A Mixed Method Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yurt, Eyüp; Tünkler, Vural

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated prospective social studies teachers' spatial abilities. It was conducted with 234 prospective teachers attending Social Studies Teaching departments at Education Faculties of two universities in Central and Southern Anatolia. This study, designed according to the explanatory-sequential design, is a mixed research method,…

  2. Comparison of method using phase-sensitive motion estimator with speckle tracking method and application to measurement of arterial wall motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyajo, Akira; Hasegawa, Hideyuki

    2018-07-01

    At present, the speckle tracking method is widely used as a two- or three-dimensional (2D or 3D) motion estimator for the measurement of cardiovascular dynamics. However, this method requires high-level interpolation of a function, which evaluates the similarity between ultrasonic echo signals in two frames, to estimate a subsample small displacement in high-frame-rate ultrasound, which results in a high computational cost. To overcome this problem, a 2D motion estimator using the 2D Fourier transform, which does not require any interpolation process, was proposed by our group. In this study, we compared the accuracies of the speckle tracking method and our method using a 2D motion estimator, and applied the proposed method to the measurement of motion of a human carotid arterial wall. The bias error and standard deviation in the lateral velocity estimates obtained by the proposed method were 0.048 and 0.282 mm/s, respectively, which were significantly better than those (‑0.366 and 1.169 mm/s) obtained by the speckle tracking method. The calculation time of the proposed phase-sensitive method was 97% shorter than the speckle tracking method. Furthermore, the in vivo experimental results showed that a characteristic change in velocity around the carotid bifurcation could be detected by the proposed method.

  3. An anti-disturbing real time pose estimation method and system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Jian; Zhang, Xiao-hu

    2011-08-01

    Pose estimation relating two-dimensional (2D) images to three-dimensional (3D) rigid object need some known features to track. In practice, there are many algorithms which perform this task in high accuracy, but all of these algorithms suffer from features lost. This paper investigated the pose estimation when numbers of known features or even all of them were invisible. Firstly, known features were tracked to calculate pose in the current and the next image. Secondly, some unknown but good features to track were automatically detected in the current and the next image. Thirdly, those unknown features which were on the rigid and could match each other in the two images were retained. Because of the motion characteristic of the rigid object, the 3D information of those unknown features on the rigid could be solved by the rigid object's pose at the two moment and their 2D information in the two images except only two case: the first one was that both camera and object have no relative motion and camera parameter such as focus length, principle point, and etc. have no change at the two moment; the second one was that there was no shared scene or no matched feature in the two image. Finally, because those unknown features at the first time were known now, pose estimation could go on in the followed images in spite of the missing of known features in the beginning by repeating the process mentioned above. The robustness of pose estimation by different features detection algorithms such as Kanade-Lucas-Tomasi (KLT) feature, Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) and Speed Up Robust Feature (SURF) were compared and the compact of the different relative motion between camera and the rigid object were discussed in this paper. Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) parallel computing was also used to extract and to match hundreds of features for real time pose estimation which was hard to work on Central Processing Unit (CPU). Compared with other pose estimation methods, this new

  4. The estimation method on diffusion spot energy concentration of the detection system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Wei; Song, Zongxi; Liu, Feng; Dan, Lijun; Sun, Zhonghan; Du, Yunfei

    2016-09-01

    We propose a method to estimate the diffusion spot energy of the detection system. We do outdoor observation experiments in Xinglong Observatory, by using a detection system which diffusion spot energy concentration is estimated (the correlation coefficient is approximate 0.9926).The aperture of system is 300mm and limiting magnitude of system is 14.15Mv. Observation experiments show that the highest detecting magnitude of estimated system is 13.96Mv, and the average detecting magnitude of estimated system is about 13.5Mv. The results indicate that this method can be used to evaluate the energy diffusion spot concentration level of detection system efficiently.

  5. Comparison of different methods for estimating snowcover in forested, mountainous basins using LANDSAT (ERTS) images. [Washington and Santiam River, Oregon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meier, M. J.; Evans, W. E.

    1975-01-01

    Snow-covered areas on LANDSAT (ERTS) images of the Santiam River basin, Oregon, and other basins in Washington were measured using several operators and methods. Seven methods were used: (1) Snowline tracing followed by measurement with planimeter, (2) mean snowline altitudes determined from many locations, (3) estimates in 2.5 x 2.5 km boxes of snow-covered area with reference to snow-free images, (4) single radiance-threshold level for entire basin, (5) radiance-threshold setting locally edited by reference to altitude contours and other images, (6) two-band color-sensitive extraction locally edited as in (5), and (7) digital (spectral) pattern recognition techniques. The seven methods are compared in regard to speed of measurement, precision, the ability to recognize snow in deep shadow or in trees, relative cost, and whether useful supplemental data are produced.

  6. Shielding and activity estimator for template-based nuclide identification methods

    DOEpatents

    Nelson, Karl Einar

    2013-04-09

    According to one embodiment, a method for estimating an activity of one or more radio-nuclides includes receiving one or more templates, the one or more templates corresponding to one or more radio-nuclides which contribute to a probable solution, receiving one or more weighting factors, each weighting factor representing a contribution of one radio-nuclide to the probable solution, computing an effective areal density for each of the one more radio-nuclides, computing an effective atomic number (Z) for each of the one more radio-nuclides, computing an effective metric for each of the one or more radio-nuclides, and computing an estimated activity for each of the one or more radio-nuclides. In other embodiments, computer program products, systems, and other methods are presented for estimating an activity of one or more radio-nuclides.

  7. A new method of hybrid frequency hopping signals selection and blind parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Xiaoyu; Jiao, Wencheng; Sun, Huixian

    2018-04-01

    Frequency hopping communication is widely used in military communications at home and abroad. In the case of single-channel reception, it is scarce to process multiple frequency hopping signals both effectively and simultaneously. A method of hybrid FH signals selection and blind parameter estimation is proposed. The method makes use of spectral transformation, spectral entropy calculation and PRI transformation basic theory to realize the sorting and parameter estimation of the components in the hybrid frequency hopping signal. The simulation results show that this method can correctly classify the frequency hopping component signal, and the estimated error of the frequency hopping period is about 5% and the estimated error of the frequency hopping frequency is less than 1% when the SNR is 10dB. However, the performance of this method deteriorates seriously at low SNR.

  8. Non-destructive lichen biomass estimation in northwestern Alaska: a comparison of methods.

    PubMed

    Rosso, Abbey; Neitlich, Peter; Smith, Robert J

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial lichen biomass is an important indicator of forage availability for caribou in northern regions, and can indicate vegetation shifts due to climate change, air pollution or changes in vascular plant community structure. Techniques for estimating lichen biomass have traditionally required destructive harvesting that is painstaking and impractical, so we developed models to estimate biomass from relatively simple cover and height measurements. We measured cover and height of forage lichens (including single-taxon and multi-taxa "community" samples, n = 144) at 73 sites on the Seward Peninsula of northwestern Alaska, and harvested lichen biomass from the same plots. We assessed biomass-to-volume relationships using zero-intercept regressions, and compared differences among two non-destructive cover estimation methods (ocular vs. point count), among four landcover types in two ecoregions, and among single-taxon vs. multi-taxa samples. Additionally, we explored the feasibility of using lichen height (instead of volume) as a predictor of stand-level biomass. Although lichen taxa exhibited unique biomass and bulk density responses that varied significantly by growth form, we found that single-taxon sampling consistently under-estimated true biomass and was constrained by the need for taxonomic experts. We also found that the point count method provided little to no improvement over ocular methods, despite increased effort. Estimated biomass of lichen-dominated communities (mean lichen cover: 84.9±1.4%) using multi-taxa, ocular methods differed only nominally among landcover types within ecoregions (range: 822 to 1418 g m-2). Height alone was a poor predictor of lichen biomass and should always be weighted by cover abundance. We conclude that the multi-taxa (whole-community) approach, when paired with ocular estimates, is the most reasonable and practical method for estimating lichen biomass at landscape scales in northwest Alaska.

  9. Non-Destructive Lichen Biomass Estimation in Northwestern Alaska: A Comparison of Methods

    PubMed Central

    Rosso, Abbey; Neitlich, Peter; Smith, Robert J.

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial lichen biomass is an important indicator of forage availability for caribou in northern regions, and can indicate vegetation shifts due to climate change, air pollution or changes in vascular plant community structure. Techniques for estimating lichen biomass have traditionally required destructive harvesting that is painstaking and impractical, so we developed models to estimate biomass from relatively simple cover and height measurements. We measured cover and height of forage lichens (including single-taxon and multi-taxa “community” samples, n = 144) at 73 sites on the Seward Peninsula of northwestern Alaska, and harvested lichen biomass from the same plots. We assessed biomass-to-volume relationships using zero-intercept regressions, and compared differences among two non-destructive cover estimation methods (ocular vs. point count), among four landcover types in two ecoregions, and among single-taxon vs. multi-taxa samples. Additionally, we explored the feasibility of using lichen height (instead of volume) as a predictor of stand-level biomass. Although lichen taxa exhibited unique biomass and bulk density responses that varied significantly by growth form, we found that single-taxon sampling consistently under-estimated true biomass and was constrained by the need for taxonomic experts. We also found that the point count method provided little to no improvement over ocular methods, despite increased effort. Estimated biomass of lichen-dominated communities (mean lichen cover: 84.9±1.4%) using multi-taxa, ocular methods differed only nominally among landcover types within ecoregions (range: 822 to 1418 g m−2). Height alone was a poor predictor of lichen biomass and should always be weighted by cover abundance. We conclude that the multi-taxa (whole-community) approach, when paired with ocular estimates, is the most reasonable and practical method for estimating lichen biomass at landscape scales in northwest Alaska. PMID:25079228

  10. An analytical method of estimating turbine performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kochendorfer, Fred D; Nettles, J Cary

    1949-01-01

    A method is developed by which the performance of a turbine over a range of operating conditions can be analytically estimated from the blade angles and flow areas. In order to use the method, certain coefficients that determine the weight flow and the friction losses must be approximated. The method is used to calculate the performance of the single-stage turbine of a commercial aircraft gas-turbine engine and the calculated performance is compared with the performance indicated by experimental data. For the turbine of the typical example, the assumed pressure losses and the tuning angles give a calculated performance that represents the trends of the experimental performance with reasonable accuracy. The exact agreement between analytical performance and experimental performance is contingent upon the proper selection of a blading-loss parameter.

  11. Improved vertical streambed flux estimation using multiple diurnal temperature methods in series

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irvine, Dylan J.; Briggs, Martin A.; Cartwright, Ian; Scruggs, Courtney; Lautz, Laura K.

    2017-01-01

    Analytical solutions that use diurnal temperature signals to estimate vertical fluxes between groundwater and surface water based on either amplitude ratios (Ar) or phase shifts (Δϕ) produce results that rarely agree. Analytical solutions that simultaneously utilize Ar and Δϕ within a single solution have more recently been derived, decreasing uncertainty in flux estimates in some applications. Benefits of combined (ArΔϕ) methods also include that thermal diffusivity and sensor spacing can be calculated. However, poor identification of either Ar or Δϕ from raw temperature signals can lead to erratic parameter estimates from ArΔϕ methods. An add-on program for VFLUX 2 is presented to address this issue. Using thermal diffusivity selected from an ArΔϕ method during a reliable time period, fluxes are recalculated using an Ar method. This approach maximizes the benefits of the Ar and ArΔϕ methods. Additionally, sensor spacing calculations can be used to identify periods with unreliable flux estimates, or to assess streambed scour. Using synthetic and field examples, the use of these solutions in series was particularly useful for gaining conditions where fluxes exceeded 1 m/d.

  12. A method to estimate weight and dimensions of aircraft gas turbine engines. Volume 1: Method of analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pera, R. J.; Onat, E.; Klees, G. W.; Tjonneland, E.

    1977-01-01

    Weight and envelope dimensions of aircraft gas turbine engines are estimated within plus or minus 5% to 10% using a computer method based on correlations of component weight and design features of 29 data base engines. Rotating components are estimated by a preliminary design procedure where blade geometry, operating conditions, material properties, shaft speed, hub-tip ratio, etc., are the primary independent variables used. The development and justification of the method selected, the various methods of analysis, the use of the program, and a description of the input/output data are discussed.

  13. Comparison of experimental methods for estimating matrix diffusion coefficients for contaminant transport modeling

    DOE PAGES

    Telfeyan, Katherine Christina; Ware, Stuart Doug; Reimus, Paul William; ...

    2018-01-31

    Here, diffusion cell and diffusion wafer experiments were conducted to compare methods for estimating effective matrix diffusion coefficients in rock core samples from Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS). A diffusion wafer method, in which a solute diffuses out of a rock matrix that is pre-saturated with water containing the solute, is presented as a simpler alternative to the traditional through-diffusion (diffusion cell) method. Both methods yielded estimates of effective matrix diffusion coefficients that were within the range of values previously reported for NNSS volcanic rocks. The difference between the estimates of the two methods ranged frommore » 14 to 30%, and there was no systematic high or low bias of one method relative to the other. From a transport modeling perspective, these differences are relatively minor when one considers that other variables (e.g., fracture apertures, fracture spacings) influence matrix diffusion to a greater degree and tend to have greater uncertainty than effective matrix diffusion coefficients. For the same relative random errors in concentration measurements, the diffusion cell method yields effective matrix diffusion coefficient estimates that have less uncertainty than the wafer method. However, the wafer method is easier and less costly to implement and yields estimates more quickly, thus allowing a greater number of samples to be analyzed for the same cost and time. Given the relatively good agreement between the methods, and the lack of any apparent bias between the methods, the diffusion wafer method appears to offer advantages over the diffusion cell method if better statistical representation of a given set of rock samples is desired.« less

  14. Comparison of experimental methods for estimating matrix diffusion coefficients for contaminant transport modeling

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Telfeyan, Katherine Christina; Ware, Stuart Doug; Reimus, Paul William

    Here, diffusion cell and diffusion wafer experiments were conducted to compare methods for estimating effective matrix diffusion coefficients in rock core samples from Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS). A diffusion wafer method, in which a solute diffuses out of a rock matrix that is pre-saturated with water containing the solute, is presented as a simpler alternative to the traditional through-diffusion (diffusion cell) method. Both methods yielded estimates of effective matrix diffusion coefficients that were within the range of values previously reported for NNSS volcanic rocks. The difference between the estimates of the two methods ranged frommore » 14 to 30%, and there was no systematic high or low bias of one method relative to the other. From a transport modeling perspective, these differences are relatively minor when one considers that other variables (e.g., fracture apertures, fracture spacings) influence matrix diffusion to a greater degree and tend to have greater uncertainty than effective matrix diffusion coefficients. For the same relative random errors in concentration measurements, the diffusion cell method yields effective matrix diffusion coefficient estimates that have less uncertainty than the wafer method. However, the wafer method is easier and less costly to implement and yields estimates more quickly, thus allowing a greater number of samples to be analyzed for the same cost and time. Given the relatively good agreement between the methods, and the lack of any apparent bias between the methods, the diffusion wafer method appears to offer advantages over the diffusion cell method if better statistical representation of a given set of rock samples is desired.« less

  15. Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

    2018-01-01

    Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  16. Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. Results The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. Conclusions The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the

  17. Large-scale dark diversity estimates: new perspectives with combined methods.

    PubMed

    Ronk, Argo; de Bello, Francesco; Fibich, Pavel; Pärtel, Meelis

    2016-09-01

    Large-scale biodiversity studies can be more informative if observed diversity in a study site is accompanied by dark diversity, the set of absent although ecologically suitable species. Dark diversity methodology is still being developed and a comparison of different approaches is needed. We used plant data at two different scales (European and seven large regions) and compared dark diversity estimates from two mathematical methods: species co-occurrence (SCO) and species distribution modeling (SDM). We used plant distribution data from the Atlas Florae Europaeae (50 × 50 km grid cells) and seven different European regions (10 × 10 km grid cells). Dark diversity was estimated by SCO and SDM for both datasets. We examined the relationship between the dark diversity sizes (type II regression) and the overlap in species composition (overlap coefficient). We tested the overlap probability according to the hypergeometric distribution. We combined the estimates of the two methods to determine consensus dark diversity and composite dark diversity. We tested whether dark diversity and completeness of site diversity (log ratio of observed and dark diversity) are related to various natural and anthropogenic factors differently than simple observed diversity. Both methods provided similar dark diversity sizes and distribution patterns; dark diversity is greater in southern Europe. The regression line, however, deviated from a 1:1 relationship. The species composition overlap of two methods was about 75%, which is much greater than expected by chance. Both consensus and composite dark diversity estimates showed similar distribution patterns. Both dark diversity and completeness measures exhibit relationships to natural and anthropogenic factors different than those exhibited by observed richness. In summary, dark diversity revealed new biodiversity patterns which were not evident when only observed diversity was examined. A new perspective in dark diversity studies

  18. Two methods for parameter estimation using multiple-trait models and beef cattle field data.

    PubMed

    Bertrand, J K; Kriese, L A

    1990-08-01

    Two methods are presented for estimating variances and covariances from beef cattle field data using multiple-trait sire models. Both methods require that the first trait have no missing records and that the contemporary groups for the second trait be subsets of the contemporary groups for the first trait; however, the second trait may have missing records. One method uses pseudo expectations involving quadratics composed of the solutions and the right-hand sides of the mixed model equations. The other method is an extension of Henderson's Simple Method to the multiple trait case. Neither of these methods requires any inversions of large matrices in the computation of the parameters; therefore, both methods can handle very large sets of data. Four simulated data sets were generated to evaluate the methods. In general, both methods estimated genetic correlations and heritabilities that were close to the Restricted Maximum Likelihood estimates and the true data set values, even when selection within contemporary groups was practiced. The estimates of residual correlations by both methods, however, were biased by selection. These two methods can be useful in estimating variances and covariances from multiple-trait models in large populations that have undergone a minimal amount of selection within contemporary groups.

  19. A fast and objective multidimensional kernel density estimation method: fastKDE

    DOE PAGES

    O'Brien, Travis A.; Kashinath, Karthik; Cavanaugh, Nicholas R.; ...

    2016-03-07

    Numerous facets of scientific research implicitly or explicitly call for the estimation of probability densities. Histograms and kernel density estimates (KDEs) are two commonly used techniques for estimating such information, with the KDE generally providing a higher fidelity representation of the probability density function (PDF). Both methods require specification of either a bin width or a kernel bandwidth. While techniques exist for choosing the kernel bandwidth optimally and objectively, they are computationally intensive, since they require repeated calculation of the KDE. A solution for objectively and optimally choosing both the kernel shape and width has recently been developed by Bernacchiamore » and Pigolotti (2011). While this solution theoretically applies to multidimensional KDEs, it has not been clear how to practically do so. A method for practically extending the Bernacchia-Pigolotti KDE to multidimensions is introduced. This multidimensional extension is combined with a recently-developed computational improvement to their method that makes it computationally efficient: a 2D KDE on 10 5 samples only takes 1 s on a modern workstation. This fast and objective KDE method, called the fastKDE method, retains the excellent statistical convergence properties that have been demonstrated for univariate samples. The fastKDE method exhibits statistical accuracy that is comparable to state-of-the-science KDE methods publicly available in R, and it produces kernel density estimates several orders of magnitude faster. The fastKDE method does an excellent job of encoding covariance information for bivariate samples. This property allows for direct calculation of conditional PDFs with fastKDE. It is demonstrated how this capability might be leveraged for detecting non-trivial relationships between quantities in physical systems, such as transitional behavior.« less

  20. An Estimation Method of Waiting Time for Health Service at Hospital by Using a Portable RFID and Robust Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishigaki, Tsukasa; Yamamoto, Yoshinobu; Nakamura, Yoshiyuki; Akamatsu, Motoyuki

    Patients that have an health service by doctor have to wait long time at many hospitals. The long waiting time is the worst factor of patient's dissatisfaction for hospital service according to questionnaire for patients. The present paper describes an estimation method of the waiting time for each patient without an electronic medical chart system. The method applies a portable RFID system to data acquisition and robust estimation of probability distribution of the health service and test time by doctor for high-accurate waiting time estimation. We carried out an health service of data acquisition at a real hospital and verified the efficiency of the proposed method. The proposed system widely can be used as data acquisition system in various fields such as marketing service, entertainment or human behavior measurement.

  1. Carbon storage in China's forest ecosystems: estimation by different integrative methods.

    PubMed

    Peng, Shunlei; Wen, Ding; He, Nianpeng; Yu, Guirui; Ma, Anna; Wang, Qiufeng

    2016-05-01

    Carbon (C) storage for all the components, especially dead mass and soil organic carbon, was rarely reported and remained uncertainty in China's forest ecosystems. This study used field-measured data published between 2004 and 2014 to estimate C storage by three forest type classifications and three spatial interpolations and assessed the uncertainty in C storage resulting from different integrative methods in China's forest ecosystems. The results showed that C storage in China's forest ecosystems ranged from 30.99 to 34.96 Pg C by the six integrative methods. We detected 5.0% variation (coefficient of variation, CV, %) among the six methods, which was influenced mainly by soil C estimates. Soil C density and storage in the 0-100 cm soil layer were estimated to be 136.11-153.16 Mg C·ha(-1) and 20.63-23.21 Pg C, respectively. Dead mass C density and storage were estimated to be 3.66-5.41 Mg C·ha(-1) and 0.68-0.82 Pg C, respectively. Mean C storage in China's forest ecosystems estimated by the six integrative methods was 8.557 Pg C (25.8%) for aboveground biomass, 1.950 Pg C (5.9%) for belowground biomass, 0.697 Pg C (2.1%) for dead mass, and 21.958 Pg C (66.2%) for soil organic C in the 0-100 cm soil layer. The R:S ratio was 0.23, and C storage in the soil was 2.1 times greater than in the vegetation. Carbon storage estimates with respect to forest type classification (38 forest subtypes) were closer to the average value than those calculated using the spatial interpolation methods. Variance among different methods and data sources may partially explain the high uncertainty of C storage detected by different studies. This study demonstrates the importance of using multimethodological approaches to estimate C storage accurately in the large-scale forest ecosystems.

  2. Utility of the General Ability Index (GAI) and Cognitive Proficiency Index (CPI) with Survivors of Pediatric Brain Tumors: Comparison to Full Scale IQ and Premorbid IQ Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Kahalley, Lisa S.; Winter-Greenberg, Amanda; Stancel, Heather; Ris, M. Douglas; Gragert, Marsha

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Pediatric brain tumor survivors are at risk for working memory and processing speed impairment. The General Ability Index (GAI) provides an estimate of intellectual functioning that is less influenced by working memory and processing speed than a Full Scale IQ (FSIQ). The Cognitive Proficiency Index (CPI) provides a measure of efficient information processing derived from working memory and processing speed tasks. We examined the utility of the GAI and CPI to quantify neurocognitive outcomes in a sample of pediatric brain tumor survivors. Methods GAI, CPI, and FSIQ scores from the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) were examined for 57 pediatric brain tumor survivors (ages 6–16) treated with cranial radiation therapy (RT). Results GAI scores were higher than FSIQ and CPI scores, both p < .001. Lower CPI scores were associated with history of craniospinal irradiation and time since RT. Lower FSIQ and GAI scores were associated with higher RT dose and time since RT. The rate of clinically significant GAI-FSIQ discrepancies in our sample was greater than observed in the WISC-IV standardization sample, p < .001. Estimated premorbid IQ scores were higher than GAI, p < .01, and FSIQ scores, p < .001. Conclusions Pediatric brain tumor survivors exhibit weaker cognitive proficiency than expected for age, while general reasoning ability remains relatively spared. The GAI may be useful to quantify the intellectual potential of a survivor when appropriate accommodations are in place for relative cognitive proficiency weaknesses. The CPI may be a particularly sensitive outcome measure of treatment-related cognitive change in this population. PMID:27295192

  3. Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation.

    PubMed

    Maiti, Tapabrata; Sinha, Samiran; Zhong, Ping-Shou

    2016-09-01

    Functional data analysis has become an important area of research due to its ability of handling high dimensional and complex data structures. However, the development is limited in the context of linear mixed effect models, and in particular, for small area estimation. The linear mixed effect models are the backbone of small area estimation. In this article, we consider area level data, and fit a varying coefficient linear mixed effect model where the varying coefficients are semi-parametrically modeled via B-splines. We propose a method of estimating the fixed effect parameters and consider prediction of random effects that can be implemented using a standard software. For measuring prediction uncertainties, we derive an analytical expression for the mean squared errors, and propose a method of estimating the mean squared errors. The procedure is illustrated via a real data example, and operating characteristics of the method are judged using finite sample simulation studies.

  4. Comparison of least squares and exponential sine sweep methods for Parallel Hammerstein Models estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebillat, Marc; Schoukens, Maarten

    2018-05-01

    Linearity is a common assumption for many real-life systems, but in many cases the nonlinear behavior of systems cannot be ignored and must be modeled and estimated. Among the various existing classes of nonlinear models, Parallel Hammerstein Models (PHM) are interesting as they are at the same time easy to interpret as well as to estimate. One way to estimate PHM relies on the fact that the estimation problem is linear in the parameters and thus that classical least squares (LS) estimation algorithms can be used. In that area, this article introduces a regularized LS estimation algorithm inspired on some of the recently developed regularized impulse response estimation techniques. Another mean to estimate PHM consists in using parametric or non-parametric exponential sine sweeps (ESS) based methods. These methods (LS and ESS) are founded on radically different mathematical backgrounds but are expected to tackle the same issue. A methodology is proposed here to compare them with respect to (i) their accuracy, (ii) their computational cost, and (iii) their robustness to noise. Tests are performed on simulated systems for several values of methods respective parameters and of signal to noise ratio. Results show that, for a given set of data points, the ESS method is less demanding in computational resources than the LS method but that it is also less accurate. Furthermore, the LS method needs parameters to be set in advance whereas the ESS method is not subject to conditioning issues and can be fully non-parametric. In summary, for a given set of data points, ESS method can provide a first, automatic, and quick overview of a nonlinear system than can guide more computationally demanding and precise methods, such as the regularized LS one proposed here.

  5. Improved method for retinotopy constrained source estimation of visual evoked responses

    PubMed Central

    Hagler, Donald J.; Dale, Anders M.

    2011-01-01

    Retinotopy constrained source estimation (RCSE) is a method for non-invasively measuring the time courses of activation in early visual areas using magnetoencephalography (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). Unlike conventional equivalent current dipole or distributed source models, the use of multiple, retinotopically-mapped stimulus locations to simultaneously constrain the solutions allows for the estimation of independent waveforms for visual areas V1, V2, and V3, despite their close proximity to each other. We describe modifications that improve the reliability and efficiency of this method. First, we find that increasing the number and size of visual stimuli results in source estimates that are less susceptible to noise. Second, to create a more accurate forward solution, we have explicitly modeled the cortical point spread of individual visual stimuli. Dipoles are represented as extended patches on the cortical surface, which take into account the estimated receptive field size at each location in V1, V2, and V3 as well as the contributions from contralateral, ipsilateral, dorsal, and ventral portions of the visual areas. Third, we implemented a map fitting procedure to deform a template to match individual subject retinotopic maps derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This improves the efficiency of the overall method by allowing automated dipole selection, and it makes the results less sensitive to physiological noise in fMRI retinotopy data. Finally, the iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) method was used to reduce the contribution from stimulus locations with high residual error for robust estimation of visual evoked responses. PMID:22102418

  6. A method for estimating both the solubility parameters and molar volumes of liquids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fedors, R. F.

    1974-01-01

    Development of an indirect method of estimating the solubility parameter of high molecular weight polymers. The proposed method of estimating the solubility parameter, like Small's method, is based on group additive constants, but is believed to be superior to Small's method for two reasons: (1) the contribution of a much larger number of functional groups have been evaluated, and (2) the method requires only a knowledge of structural formula of the compound.

  7. Simulation methods to estimate design power: an overview for applied research

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Estimating the required sample size and statistical power for a study is an integral part of study design. For standard designs, power equations provide an efficient solution to the problem, but they are unavailable for many complex study designs that arise in practice. For such complex study designs, computer simulation is a useful alternative for estimating study power. Although this approach is well known among statisticians, in our experience many epidemiologists and social scientists are unfamiliar with the technique. This article aims to address this knowledge gap. Methods We review an approach to estimate study power for individual- or cluster-randomized designs using computer simulation. This flexible approach arises naturally from the model used to derive conventional power equations, but extends those methods to accommodate arbitrarily complex designs. The method is universally applicable to a broad range of designs and outcomes, and we present the material in a way that is approachable for quantitative, applied researchers. We illustrate the method using two examples (one simple, one complex) based on sanitation and nutritional interventions to improve child growth. Results We first show how simulation reproduces conventional power estimates for simple randomized designs over a broad range of sample scenarios to familiarize the reader with the approach. We then demonstrate how to extend the simulation approach to more complex designs. Finally, we discuss extensions to the examples in the article, and provide computer code to efficiently run the example simulations in both R and Stata. Conclusions Simulation methods offer a flexible option to estimate statistical power for standard and non-traditional study designs and parameters of interest. The approach we have described is universally applicable for evaluating study designs used in epidemiologic and social science research. PMID:21689447

  8. Assessment of the mobile bag method for estimation of in vivo starch digestibility.

    PubMed

    Ghoorchi, T; Lund, P; Larsen, M; Hvelplund, T; Hansen-Møller, J; Weisbjerg, M R

    2013-02-01

    The objective was to assess the ability of the in situ mobile nylon bag method for predicting small intestinal and total tract starch digestibility. Starch disappearance was measured for 18 samples of different cereals and legumes subjected to different physical and chemical processing methods and compared with coherent in vivo digestibility. Starch disappearance was measured both with and without initial ruminal pre-incubation during 4 h. Bags were retrieved from either the ileal cannula or faeces. Two dry Danish Holstein cows fitted with rumen cannulas were used for rumen pre-incubations and two lactating Danish Holstein cows fitted with duodenal and ileal cannulas were used for intestinal incubations. Rumen pre-incubation had no significant effect on disappearance from bags recovered in faeces. The disappearance of legume starch was lower, both in the rumen and small intestine, compared with starch from barley, wheat, oats, ear maize and maize. Transit times of the mobile bags from duodenum to ileum were not significantly different between feeds. A weak positive correlation was found between in vivo small intestinal and total tract digestibility of starch and disappearance obtained using the mobile bag technique across a broad range of starch sources. Omitting two less conventional starch sources (NaOH wheat and xylose-treated barley) resulted in a high (0.87) correlation between total tract in vivo digestibility and mobile bag disappearance. The use of the mobile bag method for estimation of in vivo starch digestibility will therefore depend on the starch type.

  9. Methods for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Aquaculture in the United States, 2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lovelace, John K.

    2009-01-01

    Aquaculture water use is associated with raising organisms that live in water - such as finfish and shellfish - for food, restoration, conservation, or sport. Aquaculture production occurs under controlled feeding, sanitation, and harvesting procedures primarily in ponds, flow-through raceways, and, to a lesser extent, cages, net pens, and tanks. Aquaculture ponds, raceways, and tanks usually require the withdrawal or diversion of water from a ground or surface source. Most water withdrawn or diverted for aquaculture production is used to maintain pond levels and/or water quality. Water typically is added for maintenance of levels, oxygenation, temperature control, and flushing of wastes. This report documents methods used to estimate withdrawals of fresh ground water and surface water for aqua-culture in 2005 for each county and county-equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands by using aquaculture statistics and estimated water-use coefficients and water-replacement rates. County-level data for commercial and noncommercial operations compiled for the 2005 Census of Aquaculture were obtained from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Withdrawals of water used at commercial and noncommercial operations for aquaculture ponds, raceways, tanks, egg incubators, and pens and cages for alligators were estimated and totaled by ground-water or surface-water source for each county and county equivalent. Use of the methods described in this report, when measured or reported data are unavailable, could result in more consistent water-withdrawal estimates for aquaculture that can be used by water managers and planners to determine water needs and trends across the United States. The results of this study were distributed to U.S. Geological Survey water-use personnel in each State during 2007. Water-use personnel are required to submit estimated withdrawals for all categories of use in their State to the U.S. Geological Survey National

  10. A subagging regression method for estimating the qualitative and quantitative state of groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young

    2017-08-01

    A subsample aggregating (subagging) regression (SBR) method for the analysis of groundwater data pertaining to trend-estimation-associated uncertainty is proposed. The SBR method is validated against synthetic data competitively with other conventional robust and non-robust methods. From the results, it is verified that the estimation accuracies of the SBR method are consistent and superior to those of other methods, and the uncertainties are reasonably estimated; the others have no uncertainty analysis option. To validate further, actual groundwater data are employed and analyzed comparatively with Gaussian process regression (GPR). For all cases, the trend and the associated uncertainties are reasonably estimated by both SBR and GPR regardless of Gaussian or non-Gaussian skewed data. However, it is expected that GPR has a limitation in applications to severely corrupted data by outliers owing to its non-robustness. From the implementations, it is determined that the SBR method has the potential to be further developed as an effective tool of anomaly detection or outlier identification in groundwater state data such as the groundwater level and contaminant concentration.

  11. Comparison of methods for estimating the attributable risk in the context of survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Gassama, Malamine; Bénichou, Jacques; Dartois, Laureen; Thiébaut, Anne C M

    2017-01-23

    The attributable risk (AR) measures the proportion of disease cases that can be attributed to an exposure in the population. Several definitions and estimation methods have been proposed for survival data. Using simulations, we compared four methods for estimating AR defined in terms of survival functions: two nonparametric methods based on Kaplan-Meier's estimator, one semiparametric based on Cox's model, and one parametric based on the piecewise constant hazards model, as well as one simpler method based on estimated exposure prevalence at baseline and Cox's model hazard ratio. We considered a fixed binary exposure with varying exposure probabilities and strengths of association, and generated event times from a proportional hazards model with constant or monotonic (decreasing or increasing) Weibull baseline hazard, as well as from a nonproportional hazards model. We simulated 1,000 independent samples of size 1,000 or 10,000. The methods were compared in terms of mean bias, mean estimated standard error, empirical standard deviation and 95% confidence interval coverage probability at four equally spaced time points. Under proportional hazards, all five methods yielded unbiased results regardless of sample size. Nonparametric methods displayed greater variability than other approaches. All methods showed satisfactory coverage except for nonparametric methods at the end of follow-up for a sample size of 1,000 especially. With nonproportional hazards, nonparametric methods yielded similar results to those under proportional hazards, whereas semiparametric and parametric approaches that both relied on the proportional hazards assumption performed poorly. These methods were applied to estimate the AR of breast cancer due to menopausal hormone therapy in 38,359 women of the E3N cohort. In practice, our study suggests to use the semiparametric or parametric approaches to estimate AR as a function of time in cohort studies if the proportional hazards assumption appears

  12. Analytic study of the Tadoma method: language abilities of three deaf-blind subjects.

    PubMed

    Chomsky, C

    1986-09-01

    This study reports on the linguistic abilities of 3 adult deaf-blind subjects. The subjects perceive spoken language through touch, placing a hand on the face of the speaker and monitoring the speaker's articulatory motions, a method of speechreading known as Tadoma. Two of the subjects, deaf-blind since infancy, acquired language and learned to speak through this tactile system; the third subject has used Tadoma since becoming deaf-blind at age 7. Linguistic knowledge and productive language are analyzed, using standardized tests and several tests constructed for this study. The subjects' language abilities prove to be extensive, comparing favorably in many areas with hearing individuals. The results illustrate a relatively minor effect of limited language exposure on eventual language achievement. The results also demonstrate the adequacy of the tactile sense, in these highly trained Tadoma users, for transmitting information about spoken language sufficient to support the development of language and learning to produce speech.

  13. Estimation of selection intensity under overdominance by Bayesian methods.

    PubMed

    Buzbas, Erkan Ozge; Joyce, Paul; Abdo, Zaid

    2009-01-01

    A balanced pattern in the allele frequencies of polymorphic loci is a potential sign of selection, particularly of overdominance. Although this type of selection is of some interest in population genetics, there exists no likelihood based approaches specifically tailored to make inference on selection intensity. To fill this gap, we present Bayesian methods to estimate selection intensity under k-allele models with overdominance. Our model allows for an arbitrary number of loci and alleles within a locus. The neutral and selected variability within each locus are modeled with corresponding k-allele models. To estimate the posterior distribution of the mean selection intensity in a multilocus region, a hierarchical setup between loci is used. The methods are demonstrated with data at the Human Leukocyte Antigen loci from world-wide populations.

  14. Developing of method for primary frequency control droop and deadband actual values estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikiforov, A. A.; Chaplin, A. G.

    2017-11-01

    Operation of thermal power plant generation equipment, which participates in standardized primary frequency control (SPFC), must meet specific requirements. These requirements are formalized as nine algorithmic criteria, which are used for automatic monitoring of power plant participation in SPFC. One of these criteria - primary frequency control droop and deadband actual values estimation is considered in detail in this report. Experience shows that existing estimation method sometimes doesn’t work properly. Author offers alternative method, which allows estimating droop and deadband actual values more accurately. This method was implemented as a software application.

  15. Estimating surface acoustic impedance with the inverse method.

    PubMed

    Piechowicz, Janusz

    2011-01-01

    Sound field parameters are predicted with numerical methods in sound control systems, in acoustic designs of building and in sound field simulations. Those methods define the acoustic properties of surfaces, such as sound absorption coefficients or acoustic impedance, to determine boundary conditions. Several in situ measurement techniques were developed; one of them uses 2 microphones to measure direct and reflected sound over a planar test surface. Another approach is used in the inverse boundary elements method, in which estimating acoustic impedance of a surface is expressed as an inverse boundary problem. The boundary values can be found from multipoint sound pressure measurements in the interior of a room. This method can be applied to arbitrarily-shaped surfaces. This investigation is part of a research programme on using inverse methods in industrial room acoustics.

  16. A Practical Torque Estimation Method for Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine in Electric Vehicles.

    PubMed

    Wu, Zhihong; Lu, Ke; Zhu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    The torque output accuracy of the IPMSM in electric vehicles using a state of the art MTPA strategy highly depends on the accuracy of machine parameters, thus, a torque estimation method is necessary for the safety of the vehicle. In this paper, a torque estimation method based on flux estimator with a modified low pass filter is presented. Moreover, by taking into account the non-ideal characteristic of the inverter, the torque estimation accuracy is improved significantly. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through MATLAB/Simulink simulation and experiment.

  17. A Practical Torque Estimation Method for Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine in Electric Vehicles

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    The torque output accuracy of the IPMSM in electric vehicles using a state of the art MTPA strategy highly depends on the accuracy of machine parameters, thus, a torque estimation method is necessary for the safety of the vehicle. In this paper, a torque estimation method based on flux estimator with a modified low pass filter is presented. Moreover, by taking into account the non-ideal characteristic of the inverter, the torque estimation accuracy is improved significantly. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through MATLAB/Simulink simulation and experiment. PMID:26114557

  18. A method for estimating cost savings for population health management programs.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Shannon M E; McGready, John; Griswold, Michael E; Sylvia, Martha L

    2013-04-01

    To develop a quasi-experimental method for estimating Population Health Management (PHM) program savings that mitigates common sources of confounding, supports regular updates for continued program monitoring, and estimates model precision. Administrative, program, and claims records from January 2005 through June 2009. Data are aggregated by member and month. Study participants include chronically ill adult commercial health plan members. The intervention group consists of members currently enrolled in PHM, stratified by intensity level. Comparison groups include (1) members never enrolled, and (2) PHM participants not currently enrolled. Mixed model smoothing is employed to regress monthly medical costs on time (in months), a history of PHM enrollment, and monthly program enrollment by intensity level. Comparison group trends are used to estimate expected costs for intervention members. Savings are realized when PHM participants' costs are lower than expected. This method mitigates many of the limitations faced using traditional pre-post models for estimating PHM savings in an observational setting, supports replication for ongoing monitoring, and performs basic statistical inference. This method provides payers with a confident basis for making investment decisions. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  19. The Effect of Virtual Language Learning Method on Writing Ability of Iranian Intermediate EFL Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khoshsima, Hooshang; Sayadi, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed at investigating the effect of virtual language learning method on Iranian intermediate EFL learners writing ability. The study was conducted with 20 English Translation students at Chabahar Maritime University who were assigned into two groups, control and experimental, after ensuring of their homogeneity by administering a TOEFL…

  20. Sine Rotation Vector Method for Attitude Estimation of an Underwater Robot

    PubMed Central

    Ko, Nak Yong; Jeong, Seokki; Bae, Youngchul

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a method for estimating the attitude of an underwater robot. The method employs a new concept of sine rotation vector and uses both an attitude heading and reference system (AHRS) and a Doppler velocity log (DVL) for the purpose of measurement. First, the acceleration and magnetic-field measurements are transformed into sine rotation vectors and combined. The combined sine rotation vector is then transformed into the differences between the Euler angles of the measured attitude and the predicted attitude; the differences are used to correct the predicted attitude. The method was evaluated according to field-test data and simulation data and compared to existing methods that calculate angular differences directly without a preceding sine rotation vector transformation. The comparison verifies that the proposed method improves the attitude estimation performance. PMID:27490549

  1. On methods of estimating cosmological bulk flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nusser, Adi

    2016-01-01

    We explore similarities and differences between several estimators of the cosmological bulk flow, B, from the observed radial peculiar velocities of galaxies. A distinction is made between two theoretical definitions of B as a dipole moment of the velocity field weighted by a radial window function. One definition involves the three-dimensional (3D) peculiar velocity, while the other is based on its radial component alone. Different methods attempt at inferring B for either of these definitions which coincide only for the case of a velocity field which is constant in space. We focus on the Wiener Filtering (WF) and the Constrained Minimum Variance (CMV) methodologies. Both methodologies require a prior expressed in terms of the radial velocity correlation function. Hoffman et al. compute B in Top-Hat windows from a WF realization of the 3D peculiar velocity field. Feldman et al. infer B directly from the observed velocities for the second definition of B. The WF methodology could easily be adapted to the second definition, in which case it will be equivalent to the CMV with the exception of the imposed constraint. For a prior with vanishing correlations or very noisy data, CMV reproduces the standard Maximum Likelihood estimation for B of the entire sample independent of the radial weighting function. Therefore, this estimator is likely more susceptible to observational biases that could be present in measurements of distant galaxies. Finally, two additional estimators are proposed.

  2. Numerosity but Not Texture-Density Discrimination Correlates with Math Ability in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anobile, Giovanni; Castaldi, Elisa; Turi, Marco; Tinelli, Francesca; Burr, David C.

    2016-01-01

    Considerable recent work suggests that mathematical abilities in children correlate with the ability to estimate numerosity. Does math correlate only with numerosity estimation, or also with other similar tasks? We measured discrimination thresholds of school-age (6- to 12.5-years-old) children in 3 tasks: numerosity of patterns of relatively…

  3. The Lyapunov dimension and its estimation via the Leonov method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsov, N. V.

    2016-06-01

    Along with widely used numerical methods for estimating and computing the Lyapunov dimension there is an effective analytical approach, proposed by G.A. Leonov in 1991. The Leonov method is based on the direct Lyapunov method with special Lyapunov-like functions. The advantage of the method is that it allows one to estimate the Lyapunov dimension of invariant sets without localization of the set in the phase space and, in many cases, to get effectively an exact Lyapunov dimension formula. In this work the invariance of the Lyapunov dimension with respect to diffeomorphisms and its connection with the Leonov method are discussed. For discrete-time dynamical systems an analog of Leonov method is suggested. In a simple but rigorous way, here it is presented the connection between the Leonov method and the key related works: Kaplan and Yorke (the concept of the Lyapunov dimension, 1979), Douady and Oesterlé (upper bounds of the Hausdorff dimension via the Lyapunov dimension of maps, 1980), Constantin, Eden, Foiaş, and Temam (upper bounds of the Hausdorff dimension via the Lyapunov exponents and Lyapunov dimension of dynamical systems, 1985-90), and the numerical calculation of the Lyapunov exponents and dimension.

  4. A dual estimate method for aeromagnetic compensation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Ming; Zhou, Zhijian; Cheng, Defu

    2017-11-01

    Scalar aeromagnetic surveys have played a vital role in prospecting. However, before analysis of the surveys’ aeromagnetic data is possible, the aircraft’s magnetic interference should be removed. The extensively adopted linear model for aeromagnetic compensation is computationally efficient but faces an underfitting problem. On the other hand, the neural model proposed by Williams is more powerful at fitting but always suffers from an overfitting problem. This paper starts off with an analysis of these two models and then proposes a dual estimate method to combine them together to improve accuracy. This method is based on an unscented Kalman filter, but a gradient descent method is implemented over the iteration so that the parameters of the linear model are adjustable during flight. The noise caused by the neural model’s overfitting problem is suppressed by introducing an observation noise.

  5. Comparison of Two Parametric Methods to Estimate Pesticide Mass Loads in California's Central Valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Saleh, D.K.; Lorenz, D.L.; Domagalski, Joseph L.

    2011-01-01

    Mass loadings were calculated for four pesticides in two watersheds with different land uses in the Central Valley, California, by using two parametric models: (1) the Seasonal Wave model (SeaWave), in which a pulse signal is used to describe the annual cycle of pesticide occurrence in a stream, and (2) the Sine Wave model, in which first-order Fourier series sine and cosine terms are used to simulate seasonal mass loading patterns. The models were applied to data collected during water years 1997 through 2005. The pesticides modeled were carbaryl, diazinon, metolachlor, and molinate. Results from the two models show that the ability to capture seasonal variations in pesticide concentrations was affected by pesticide use patterns and the methods by which pesticides are transported to streams. Estimated seasonal loads compared well with results from previous studies for both models. Loads estimated by the two models did not differ significantly from each other, with the exceptions of carbaryl and molinate during the precipitation season, where loads were affected by application patterns and rainfall. However, in watersheds with variable and intermittent pesticide applications, the SeaWave model is more suitable for use on the basis of its robust capability of describing seasonal variation of pesticide concentrations. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  6. Validity of the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) for estimating energy and nutrient intake in near real-time.

    PubMed

    Martin, Corby K; Correa, John B; Han, Hongmei; Allen, H Raymond; Rood, Jennifer C; Champagne, Catherine M; Gunturk, Bahadir K; Bray, George A

    2012-04-01

    Two studies are reported; a pilot study to demonstrate feasibility followed by a larger validity study. Study 1's objective was to test the effect of two ecological momentary assessment (EMA) approaches that varied in intensity on the validity/accuracy of estimating energy intake (EI) with the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) over 6 days in free-living conditions. When using the RFPM, Smartphones are used to capture images of food selection and plate waste and to send the images to a server for food intake estimation. Consistent with EMA, prompts are sent to the Smartphones reminding participants to capture food images. During Study 1, EI estimated with the RFPM and the gold standard, doubly labeled water (DLW), were compared. Participants were assigned to receive Standard EMA Prompts (n = 24) or Customized Prompts (n = 16) (the latter received more reminders delivered at personalized meal times). The RFPM differed significantly from DLW at estimating EI when Standard (mean ± s.d. = -895 ± 770 kcal/day, P < 0.0001), but not Customized Prompts (-270 ± 748 kcal/day, P = 0.22) were used. Error (EI from the RFPM minus that from DLW) was significantly smaller with Customized vs. Standard Prompts. The objectives of Study 2 included testing the RFPM's ability to accurately estimate EI in free-living adults (N = 50) over 6 days, and energy and nutrient intake in laboratory-based meals. The RFPM did not differ significantly from DLW at estimating free-living EI (-152 ± 694 kcal/day, P = 0.16). During laboratory-based meals, estimating energy and macronutrient intake with the RFPM did not differ significantly compared to directly weighed intake.

  7. An Efficient Acoustic Density Estimation Method with Human Detectors Applied to Gibbons in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Kidney, Darren; Rawson, Benjamin M; Borchers, David L; Stevenson, Ben C; Marques, Tiago A; Thomas, Len

    2016-01-01

    Some animal species are hard to see but easy to hear. Standard visual methods for estimating population density for such species are often ineffective or inefficient, but methods based on passive acoustics show more promise. We develop spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods for territorial vocalising species, in which humans act as an acoustic detector array. We use SECR and estimated bearing data from a single-occasion acoustic survey of a gibbon population in northeastern Cambodia to estimate the density of calling groups. The properties of the estimator are assessed using a simulation study, in which a variety of survey designs are also investigated. We then present a new form of the SECR likelihood for multi-occasion data which accounts for the stochastic availability of animals. In the context of gibbon surveys this allows model-based estimation of the proportion of groups that produce territorial vocalisations on a given day, thereby enabling the density of groups, instead of the density of calling groups, to be estimated. We illustrate the performance of this new estimator by simulation. We show that it is possible to estimate density reliably from human acoustic detections of visually cryptic species using SECR methods. For gibbon surveys we also show that incorporating observers' estimates of bearings to detected groups substantially improves estimator performance. Using the new form of the SECR likelihood we demonstrate that estimates of availability, in addition to population density and detection function parameters, can be obtained from multi-occasion data, and that the detection function parameters are not confounded with the availability parameter. This acoustic SECR method provides a means of obtaining reliable density estimates for territorial vocalising species. It is also efficient in terms of data requirements since since it only requires routine survey data. We anticipate that the low-tech field requirements will make this method

  8. Methods for estimating heterocyclic amine concentrations in cooked meats in the US diet.

    PubMed

    Keating, G A; Bogen, K T

    2001-01-01

    Heterocyclic amines (HAs) are formed in numerous cooked foods commonly consumed in the diet. A method was developed to estimate dietary HA levels using HA concentrations in experimentally cooked meats reported in the literature and meat consumption data obtained from a national dietary survey. Cooking variables (meat internal temperature and weight loss, surface temperature and time) were used to develop relationships for estimating total HA concentrations in six meat types. Concentrations of five individual HAs were estimated for specific meat type/cooking method combinations based on linear regression of total and individual HA values obtained from the literature. Using these relationships, total and individual HA concentrations were estimated for 21 meat type/cooking method combinations at four meat doneness levels. Reported consumption of the 21 meat type/cooking method combinations was obtained from a national dietary survey and the age-specific daily HA intake calculated using the estimated HA concentrations (ng/g) and reported meat intakes. Estimated mean daily total HA intakes for children (to age 15 years) and adults (30+ years) were 11 and 7.0 ng/kg/day, respectively, with 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP) estimated to comprise approximately 65% of each intake. Pan-fried meats were the largest source of HA in the diet and chicken the largest source of HAs among the different meat types.

  9. Method to Estimate the Dissolved Air Content in Hydraulic Fluid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hauser, Daniel M.

    2011-01-01

    In order to verify the air content in hydraulic fluid, an instrument was needed to measure the dissolved air content before the fluid was loaded into the system. The instrument also needed to measure the dissolved air content in situ and in real time during the de-aeration process. The current methods used to measure the dissolved air content require the fluid to be drawn from the hydraulic system, and additional offline laboratory processing time is involved. During laboratory processing, there is a potential for contamination to occur, especially when subsaturated fluid is to be analyzed. A new method measures the amount of dissolved air in hydraulic fluid through the use of a dissolved oxygen meter. The device measures the dissolved air content through an in situ, real-time process that requires no additional offline laboratory processing time. The method utilizes an instrument that measures the partial pressure of oxygen in the hydraulic fluid. By using a standardized calculation procedure that relates the oxygen partial pressure to the volume of dissolved air in solution, the dissolved air content is estimated. The technique employs luminescent quenching technology to determine the partial pressure of oxygen in the hydraulic fluid. An estimated Henry s law coefficient for oxygen and nitrogen in hydraulic fluid is calculated using a standard method to estimate the solubility of gases in lubricants. The amount of dissolved oxygen in the hydraulic fluid is estimated using the Henry s solubility coefficient and the measured partial pressure of oxygen in solution. The amount of dissolved nitrogen that is in solution is estimated by assuming that the ratio of dissolved nitrogen to dissolved oxygen is equal to the ratio of the gas solubility of nitrogen to oxygen at atmospheric pressure and temperature. The technique was performed at atmospheric pressure and room temperature. The technique could be theoretically carried out at higher pressures and elevated

  10. Method for Estimating Patronage of Demand Responsive Transportation Systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-12-01

    This study has developed a method for estimating patronage of demand responsive transportation (DRT) systems. This procedure requires as inputs a description of the intended service area, current work trip patterns, characteristics of the served popu...

  11. Comparison of HPLC & spectrophotometric methods for estimation of antiretroviral drug content in pharmaceutical products.

    PubMed

    Hemanth Kumar, A K; Sudha, V; Swaminathan, Soumya; Ramachandran, Geetha

    2010-10-01

    Simple and reliable methods to estimate drugs in pharmaceutical products are needed. In most cases, antiretroviral drug estimations are performed using a HPLC method, requiring expensive equipment and trained technicians. A relatively simple and accurate method to estimate antiretroviral drugs in pharmaceutical preparations is by spectrophotometric method, which is cheap and simple to use as compared to HPLC. We undertook this study to standardise methods for estimation of nevirapine (NVP), lamivudine (3TC) and stavudine (d4T) in single tablets/capsules by HPLC and spectrophotometry and to compare the content of these drugs determined by both these methods. Twenty tablets/capsules of NVP, 3TC and d4T each were analysed for their drug content by HPLC and spectrophotometric methods. Suitably diluted drug solutions were run on HPLC fitted with a C18 column using UV detection at ambient temperature. The absorbance of the diluted drug solutions were read in a spectrophotometer at 300, 285 and 270 nm for NVP, 3TC and d4T respectively. Pure powders of the drugs were used to prepare calibration standards of known drug concentrations, which was set up with each assay. The inter-day variation (%) of standards for NVP, 3TC and d4T ranged from 2.5 to 6.7, 2.1 to 7.7 and 6.2 to 7.7, respectively by HPLC. The corresponding values by spectrophotometric method were 2.7 to 4.7, 4.2 to 7.2 and 3.8 to 6.0. The per cent variation between the HPLC and spectrophotometric methods ranged from 0.45 to 4.49 per cent, 0 to 4.98 per cent and 0.35 to 8.73 per cent for NVP, 3TC and d4T,respectively. The contents of NVP, 3TC and d4T in the tablets estimated by HPLC and spectrophotometric methods were similar, and the variation in the amount of these drugs estimated by HPLC and spectrophotometric methods was below 10 per cent. This suggests that the spectrophotometric method is as accurate as the HPLC method for estimation of NVP, 3TC and d4T in tablet/capsule. Hence laboratories that do not have

  12. Index cost estimate based BIM method - Computational example for sports fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zima, Krzysztof

    2017-07-01

    The paper presents an example ofcost estimation in the early phase of the project. The fragment of relative database containing solution, descriptions, geometry of construction object and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The Index Cost Estimate Based BIM method calculationswith use of Case Based Reasoning were presented, too. The article presentslocal and global similarity measurement and example of BIM based quantity takeoff process. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a final result of calculations.

  13. Parameters estimation using the first passage times method in a jump-diffusion model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Khaldi, K., E-mail: kkhaldi@umbb.dz; LIMOSE Laboratory, Boumerdes University, 35000; Meddahi, S., E-mail: samia.meddahi@gmail.com

    2016-06-02

    The main purposes of this paper are two contributions: (1) it presents a new method, which is the first passage time (FPT method) generalized for all passage times (GPT method), in order to estimate the parameters of stochastic Jump-Diffusion process. (2) it compares in a time series model, share price of gold, the empirical results of the estimation and forecasts obtained with the GPT method and those obtained by the moments method and the FPT method applied to the Merton Jump-Diffusion (MJD) model.

  14. A Projection and Density Estimation Method for Knowledge Discovery

    PubMed Central

    Stanski, Adam; Hellwich, Olaf

    2012-01-01

    A key ingredient to modern data analysis is probability density estimation. However, it is well known that the curse of dimensionality prevents a proper estimation of densities in high dimensions. The problem is typically circumvented by using a fixed set of assumptions about the data, e.g., by assuming partial independence of features, data on a manifold or a customized kernel. These fixed assumptions limit the applicability of a method. In this paper we propose a framework that uses a flexible set of assumptions instead. It allows to tailor a model to various problems by means of 1d-decompositions. The approach achieves a fast runtime and is not limited by the curse of dimensionality as all estimations are performed in 1d-space. The wide range of applications is demonstrated at two very different real world examples. The first is a data mining software that allows the fully automatic discovery of patterns. The software is publicly available for evaluation. As a second example an image segmentation method is realized. It achieves state of the art performance on a benchmark dataset although it uses only a fraction of the training data and very simple features. PMID:23049675

  15. SCoPE: an efficient method of Cosmological Parameter Estimation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Das, Santanu; Souradeep, Tarun, E-mail: santanud@iucaa.ernet.in, E-mail: tarun@iucaa.ernet.in

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is widely used for cosmological parameter estimation from CMB and other data. However, due to the intrinsic serial nature of the MCMC sampler, convergence is often very slow. Here we present a fast and independently written Monte Carlo method for cosmological parameter estimation named as Slick Cosmological Parameter Estimator (SCoPE), that employs delayed rejection to increase the acceptance rate of a chain, and pre-fetching that helps an individual chain to run on parallel CPUs. An inter-chain covariance update is also incorporated to prevent clustering of the chains allowing faster and better mixing of themore » chains. We use an adaptive method for covariance calculation to calculate and update the covariance automatically as the chains progress. Our analysis shows that the acceptance probability of each step in SCoPE is more than 95% and the convergence of the chains are faster. Using SCoPE, we carry out some cosmological parameter estimations with different cosmological models using WMAP-9 and Planck results. One of the current research interests in cosmology is quantifying the nature of dark energy. We analyze the cosmological parameters from two illustrative commonly used parameterisations of dark energy models. We also asses primordial helium fraction in the universe can be constrained by the present CMB data from WMAP-9 and Planck. The results from our MCMC analysis on the one hand helps us to understand the workability of the SCoPE better, on the other hand it provides a completely independent estimation of cosmological parameters from WMAP-9 and Planck data.« less

  16. Comparison of methods for estimating density of forest songbirds from point counts

    Treesearch

    Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R. Thompson; J. Wesley. Bailey

    2011-01-01

    New analytical methods have been promoted for estimating the probability of detection and density of birds from count data but few studies have compared these methods using real data. We compared estimates of detection probability and density from distance and time-removal models and survey protocols based on 5- or 10-min counts and outer radii of 50 or 100 m. We...

  17. Individual differences in non-symbolic numerical abilities predict mathematical achievements but contradict ATOM.

    PubMed

    Agrillo, Christian; Piffer, Laura; Adriano, Andrea

    2013-07-01

    A significant debate surrounds the nature of the cognitive mechanisms involved in non-symbolic number estimation. Several studies have suggested the existence of the same cognitive system for estimation of time, space, and number, called "a theory of magnitude" (ATOM). In addition, researchers have proposed the theory that non-symbolic number abilities might support our mathematical skills. Despite the large number of studies carried out, no firm conclusions can be drawn on either topic. In the present study, we correlated the performance of adults on non-symbolic magnitude estimations and symbolic numerical tasks. Non-symbolic magnitude abilities were assessed by asking participants to estimate which auditory tone lasted longer (time), which line was longer (space), and which group of dots was more numerous (number). To assess symbolic numerical abilities, participants were required to perform mental calculations and mathematical reasoning. We found a positive correlation between non-symbolic and symbolic numerical abilities. On the other hand, no correlation was found among non-symbolic estimations of time, space, and number. Our study supports the idea that mathematical abilities rely on rudimentary numerical skills that predate verbal language. By contrast, the lack of correlation among non-symbolic estimations of time, space, and number is incompatible with the idea that these magnitudes are entirely processed by the same cognitive system.

  18. Accurate position estimation methods based on electrical impedance tomography measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Samuel; Sbarbaro, Daniel; Johansen, T. A.

    2017-08-01

    Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a technology that estimates the electrical properties of a body or a cross section. Its main advantages are its non-invasiveness, low cost and operation free of radiation. The estimation of the conductivity field leads to low resolution images compared with other technologies, and high computational cost. However, in many applications the target information lies in a low intrinsic dimensionality of the conductivity field. The estimation of this low-dimensional information is addressed in this work. It proposes optimization-based and data-driven approaches for estimating this low-dimensional information. The accuracy of the results obtained with these approaches depends on modelling and experimental conditions. Optimization approaches are sensitive to model discretization, type of cost function and searching algorithms. Data-driven methods are sensitive to the assumed model structure and the data set used for parameter estimation. The system configuration and experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), also have an impact on the results. In order to illustrate the effects of all these factors, the position estimation of a circular anomaly is addressed. Optimization methods based on weighted error cost functions and derivate-free optimization algorithms provided the best results. Data-driven approaches based on linear models provided, in this case, good estimates, but the use of nonlinear models enhanced the estimation accuracy. The results obtained by optimization-based algorithms were less sensitive to experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and SNR, than data-driven approaches. Position estimation mean squared errors for simulation and experimental conditions were more than twice for the optimization-based approaches compared with the data-driven ones. The experimental position estimation mean squared error of the data-driven models using a 16-electrode setup was less

  19. A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

    2015-01-01

    While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

  20. Estimating evolutionary rates using time-structured data: a general comparison of phylogenetic methods.

    PubMed

    Duchêne, Sebastián; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holmes, Edward C; Ho, Simon Y W

    2016-11-15

    In rapidly evolving pathogens, including viruses and some bacteria, genetic change can accumulate over short time-frames. Accordingly, their sampling times can be used to calibrate molecular clocks, allowing estimation of evolutionary rates. Methods for estimating rates from time-structured data vary in how they treat phylogenetic uncertainty and rate variation among lineages. We compiled 81 virus data sets and estimated nucleotide substitution rates using root-to-tip regression, least-squares dating and Bayesian inference. Although estimates from these three methods were often congruent, this largely relied on the choice of clock model. In particular, relaxed-clock models tended to produce higher rate estimates than methods that assume constant rates. Discrepancies in rate estimates were also associated with high among-lineage rate variation, and phylogenetic and temporal clustering. These results provide insights into the factors that affect the reliability of rate estimates from time-structured sequence data, emphasizing the importance of clock-model testing. sduchene@unimelb.edu.au or garzonsebastian@hotmail.comSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Finding and estimating chemical property data for environmental assessment.

    PubMed

    Boethling, Robert S; Howard, Philip H; Meylan, William M

    2004-10-01

    The ability to predict the behavior of a chemical substance in a biological or environmental system largely depends on knowledge of the physicochemical properties and reactivity of that substance. We focus here on properties, with the objective of providing practical guidance for finding measured values and using estimation methods when necessary. Because currently available computer software often makes it more convenient to estimate than to retrieve measured values, we try to discourage irrational exuberance for these tools by including comprehensive lists of Internet and hard-copy data resources. Guidance for assessors is presented in the form of a process to obtain data that includes establishment of chemical identity, identification of data sources, assessment of accuracy and reliability, substructure searching for analogs when experimental data are unavailable, and estimation from chemical structure. Regarding property estimation, we cover estimation from close structural analogs in addition to broadly applicable methods requiring only the chemical structure. For the latter, we list and briefly discuss the most widely used methods. Concluding thoughts are offered concerning appropriate directions for future work on estimation methods, again with an emphasis on practical applications.

  2. Errors in the estimation method for the rejection of vibrations in adaptive optics systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kania, Dariusz

    2017-06-01

    In recent years the problem of the mechanical vibrations impact in adaptive optics (AO) systems has been renewed. These signals are damped sinusoidal signals and have deleterious effect on the system. One of software solutions to reject the vibrations is an adaptive method called AVC (Adaptive Vibration Cancellation) where the procedure has three steps: estimation of perturbation parameters, estimation of the frequency response of the plant, update the reference signal to reject/minimalize the vibration. In the first step a very important problem is the estimation method. A very accurate and fast (below 10 ms) estimation method of these three parameters has been presented in several publications in recent years. The method is based on using the spectrum interpolation and MSD time windows and it can be used to estimate multifrequency signals. In this paper the estimation method is used in the AVC method to increase the system performance. There are several parameters that affect the accuracy of obtained results, e.g. CiR - number of signal periods in a measurement window, N - number of samples in the FFT procedure, H - time window order, SNR, b - number of ADC bits, γ - damping ratio of the tested signal. Systematic errors increase when N, CiR, H decrease and when γ increases. The value for systematic error is approximately 10^-10 Hz/Hz for N = 2048 and CiR = 0.1. This paper presents equations that can used to estimate maximum systematic errors for given values of H, CiR and N before the start of the estimation process.

  3. An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes. Results By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa. Conclusions The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support. PMID:24992937

  4. A novel method for blood volume estimation using trivalent chromium in rabbit models.

    PubMed

    Baby, Prathap Moothamadathil; Kumar, Pramod; Kumar, Rajesh; Jacob, Sanu S; Rawat, Dinesh; Binu, V S; Karun, Kalesh M

    2014-05-01

    Blood volume measurement though important in management of critically ill-patients is not routinely estimated in clinical practice owing to labour intensive, intricate and time consuming nature of existing methods. The aim was to compare blood volume estimations using trivalent chromium [(51)Cr(III)] and standard Evans blue dye (EBD) method in New Zealand white rabbit models and establish correction-factor (CF). Blood volume estimation in 33 rabbits was carried out using EBD method and concentration determined using spectrophotometric assay followed by blood volume estimation using direct injection of (51)Cr(III). Twenty out of 33 rabbits were used to find CF by dividing blood volume estimation using EBD with blood volume estimation using (51)Cr(III). CF is validated in 13 rabbits by multiplying it with blood volume estimation values obtained using (51)Cr(III). The mean circulating blood volume of 33 rabbits using EBD was 142.02 ± 22.77 ml or 65.76 ± 9.31 ml/kg and using (51)Cr(III) was estimated to be 195.66 ± 47.30 ml or 89.81 ± 17.88 ml/kg. The CF was found to be 0.77. The mean blood volume of 13 rabbits measured using EBD was 139.54 ± 27.19 ml or 66.33 ± 8.26 ml/kg and using (51)Cr(III) with CF was 152.73 ± 46.25 ml or 71.87 ± 13.81 ml/kg (P = 0.11). The estimation of blood volume using (51)Cr(III) was comparable to standard EBD method using CF. With further research in this direction, we envisage human blood volume estimation using (51)Cr(III) to find its application in acute clinical settings.

  5. Chaos synchronization and Nelder-Mead search for parameter estimation in nonlinear pharmacological systems: Estimating tumor antigenicity in a model of immunotherapy.

    PubMed

    Pillai, Nikhil; Craig, Morgan; Dokoumetzidis, Aristeidis; Schwartz, Sorell L; Bies, Robert; Freedman, Immanuel

    2018-06-19

    In mathematical pharmacology, models are constructed to confer a robust method for optimizing treatment. The predictive capability of pharmacological models depends heavily on the ability to track the system and to accurately determine parameters with reference to the sensitivity in projected outcomes. To closely track chaotic systems, one may choose to apply chaos synchronization. An advantageous byproduct of this methodology is the ability to quantify model parameters. In this paper, we illustrate the use of chaos synchronization combined with Nelder-Mead search to estimate parameters of the well-known Kirschner-Panetta model of IL-2 immunotherapy from noisy data. Chaos synchronization with Nelder-Mead search is shown to provide more accurate and reliable estimates than Nelder-Mead search based on an extended least squares (ELS) objective function. Our results underline the strength of this approach to parameter estimation and provide a broader framework of parameter identification for nonlinear models in pharmacology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Methods for cost estimation in software project management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

  7. Estimation of evaporation from open water - A review of selected studies, summary of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data collection and methods, and evaluation of two methods for estimation of evaporation from five reservoirs in Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harwell, Glenn R.

    2012-01-01

    Organizations responsible for the management of water resources, such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), are tasked with estimation of evaporation for water-budgeting and planning purposes. The USACE has historically used Class A pan evaporation data (pan data) to estimate evaporation from reservoirs but many USACE Districts have been experimenting with other techniques for an alternative to collecting pan data. The energy-budget method generally is considered the preferred method for accurate estimation of open-water evaporation from lakes and reservoirs. Complex equations to estimate evaporation, such as the Penman, DeBruin-Keijman, and Priestley-Taylor, perform well when compared with energy-budget method estimates when all of the important energy terms are included in the equations and ideal data are collected. However, sometimes nonideal data are collected and energy terms, such as the change in the amount of stored energy and advected energy, are not included in the equations. When this is done, the corresponding errors in evaporation estimates are not quantifiable. Much simpler methods, such as the Hamon method and a method developed by the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) (renamed the National Weather Service in 1970), have been shown to provide reasonable estimates of evaporation when compared to energy-budget method estimates. Data requirements for the Hamon and USWB methods are minimal and sometimes perform well with remotely collected data. The Hamon method requires average daily air temperature, and the USWB method requires daily averages of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. Estimates of annual lake evaporation from pan data are frequently within 20 percent of energy-budget method estimates. Results of evaporation estimates from the Hamon method and the USWB method were compared against historical pan data at five selected reservoirs in Texas (Benbrook Lake, Canyon Lake, Granger Lake, Hords Creek Lake, and Sam

  8. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    PubMed

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

  9. Methods for estimating aboveground biomass and its components for five Pacific Northwest tree species

    Treesearch

    Krishna P. Poudel; Temesgen. Hailemariam

    2015-01-01

    Performance of three groups of methods to estimate total and/or component aboveground biomass was evaluated using the data collected from destructively sampled trees in different parts of Oregon. First group of methods used analytical approach to estimate total and component biomass using existing equations, and produced biased estimates for our dataset. The second...

  10. Using Ensemble-Based Methods for Directly Estimating Causal Effects: An Investigation of Tree-Based G-Computation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Austin, Peter C.

    2012-01-01

    Researchers are increasingly using observational or nonrandomized data to estimate causal treatment effects. Essential to the production of high-quality evidence is the ability to reduce or minimize the confounding that frequently occurs in observational studies. When using the potential outcome framework to define causal treatment effects, one…

  11. The ABCs of Math: A Genetic Analysis of Mathematics and Its Links With Reading Ability and General Cognitive Ability

    PubMed Central

    Hart, Sara A.; Petrill, Stephen A.; Thompson, Lee A.; Plomin, Robert

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this first major report from the Western Reserve Reading Project Math component is to explore the etiology of the relationship among tester-administered measures of mathematics ability, reading ability, and general cognitive ability. Data are available on 314 pairs of monozygotic and same-sex dizygotic twins analyzed across 5 waves of assessment. Univariate analyses provide a range of estimates of genetic (h2 = .00 –.63) and shared (c2 = .15–.52) environmental influences across math calculation, fluency, and problem solving measures. Multivariate analyses indicate genetic overlap between math problem solving with general cognitive ability and reading decoding, whereas math fluency shares significant genetic overlap with reading fluency and general cognitive ability. Further, math fluency has unique genetic influences. In general, math ability has shared environmental overlap with general cognitive ability and decoding. These results indicate that aspects of math that include problem solving have different genetic and environmental influences than math calculation. Moreover, math fluency, a timed measure of calculation, is the only measured math ability with unique genetic influences. PMID:20157630

  12. Multiple-Parameter Estimation Method Based on Spatio-Temporal 2-D Processing for Bistatic MIMO Radar

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Shouguo; Li, Yong; Zhang, Kunhui; Tang, Weiping

    2015-01-01

    A novel spatio-temporal 2-dimensional (2-D) processing method that can jointly estimate the transmitting-receiving azimuth and Doppler frequency for bistatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar in the presence of spatial colored noise and an unknown number of targets is proposed. In the temporal domain, the cross-correlation of the matched filters’ outputs for different time-delay sampling is used to eliminate the spatial colored noise. In the spatial domain, the proposed method uses a diagonal loading method and subspace theory to estimate the direction of departure (DOD) and direction of arrival (DOA), and the Doppler frequency can then be accurately estimated through the estimation of the DOD and DOA. By skipping target number estimation and the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) of the data covariance matrix estimation and only requiring a one-dimensional search, the proposed method achieves low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed method is suitable for bistatic MIMO radar with an arbitrary transmitted and received geometrical configuration. The correction and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by computer simulation results. PMID:26694385

  13. Multiple-Parameter Estimation Method Based on Spatio-Temporal 2-D Processing for Bistatic MIMO Radar.

    PubMed

    Yang, Shouguo; Li, Yong; Zhang, Kunhui; Tang, Weiping

    2015-12-14

    A novel spatio-temporal 2-dimensional (2-D) processing method that can jointly estimate the transmitting-receiving azimuth and Doppler frequency for bistatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radar in the presence of spatial colored noise and an unknown number of targets is proposed. In the temporal domain, the cross-correlation of the matched filters' outputs for different time-delay sampling is used to eliminate the spatial colored noise. In the spatial domain, the proposed method uses a diagonal loading method and subspace theory to estimate the direction of departure (DOD) and direction of arrival (DOA), and the Doppler frequency can then be accurately estimated through the estimation of the DOD and DOA. By skipping target number estimation and the eigenvalue decomposition (EVD) of the data covariance matrix estimation and only requiring a one-dimensional search, the proposed method achieves low computational complexity. Furthermore, the proposed method is suitable for bistatic MIMO radar with an arbitrary transmitted and received geometrical configuration. The correction and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by computer simulation results.

  14. Method for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Livestock in the United States, 2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lovelace, John K.

    2009-01-01

    Livestock water use includes ground water and surface water associated with livestock watering, feedlots, dairy operations, and other on-farm needs. The water may be used for drinking, cooling, sanitation, waste disposal, and other needs related to the animals. Estimates of water withdrawals for livestock are needed for water planning and management. This report documents a method used to estimate withdrawals of fresh ground water and surface water for livestock in 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Categories of livestock included dairy cattle, beef and other cattle, hogs and pigs, laying hens, broilers and other chickens, turkeys, sheep and lambs, all goats, and horses (including ponies, mules, burros, and donkeys). Use of the method described in this report could result in more consistent water-withdrawal estimates for livestock that can be used by water managers and planners to determine water needs and trends across the United States. Water withdrawals for livestock in 2005 were estimated by using water-use coefficients, in gallons per head per day for each animal type, and livestock-population data. Coefficients for various livestock for most States were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey water-use program personnel or U.S. Geological Survey water-use publications. When no coefficient was available for an animal type in a State, the median value of reported coefficients for that animal was used. Livestock-population data were provided by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. County estimates were further divided into ground-water and surface-water withdrawals for each county and county equivalent. County totals from 2005 were compared to county totals from 1995 and 2000. Large deviations from 1995 or 2000 livestock withdrawal estimates were investigated and generally were due to comparison with reported withdrawals, differences in estimation techniques, differences in livestock

  15. Three Different Methods of Estimating LAI in a Small Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Speckman, H. N.; Ewers, B. E.; Beverly, D.

    2015-12-01

    Leaf area index (LAI) is a critical input of models that improve predictive understanding of ecology, hydrology, and climate change. Multiple techniques exist to quantify LAI, most of which are labor intensive, and all often fail to converge on similar estimates. . Recent large-scale bark beetle induced mortality greatly altered LAI, which is now dominated by younger and more metabolically active trees compared to the pre-beetle forest. Tree mortality increases error in optical LAI estimates due to the lack of differentiation between live and dead branches in dense canopy. Our study aims to quantify LAI using three different LAI methods, and then to compare the techniques to each other and topographic drivers to develop an effective predictive model of LAI. This study focuses on quantifying LAI within a small (~120 ha) beetle infested watershed in Wyoming's Snowy Range Mountains. The first technique estimated LAI using in-situ hemispherical canopy photographs that were then analyzed with Hemisfer software. The second LAI estimation technique was use of the Kaufmann 1982 allometrerics from forest inventories conducted throughout the watershed, accounting for stand basal area, species composition, and the extent of bark beetle driven mortality. The final technique used airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) first DMS returns, which were used to estimating canopy heights and crown area. LIDAR final returns provided topographical information and were then ground-truthed during forest inventories. Once data was collected, a fractural analysis was conducted comparing the three methods. Species composition was driven by slope position and elevation Ultimately the three different techniques provided very different estimations of LAI, but each had their advantage: estimates from hemisphere photos were well correlated with SWE and snow depth measurements, forest inventories provided insight into stand health and composition, and LIDAR were able to quickly and

  16. Comparison of Past, Present, and Future Volume Estimation Methods for Tennessee

    Treesearch

    Stanley J. Zarnoch; Alexander Clark; Ray A. Souter

    2003-01-01

    Forest Inventory and Analysis 1999 survey data for Tennessee were used to compare stem-volume estimates obtained using a previous method, the current method, and newly developed taper models that will be used in the future. Compared to the current method, individual tree volumes were consistently underestimated with the previous method, especially for the hardwoods....

  17. Application of Density Estimation Methods to Datasets from a Glider

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    sperm whales as well as different dolphin species. OBJECTIVES The objective of this research is to extend existing methods for cetacean...Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions...a cue counting approach, where a cue has been defined as a clicking event (Küsel et al., 2011), to density estimation from data recorded by single

  18. Methods for accurate estimation of net discharge in a tidal channel

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, M.R.; Bland, R.

    2000-01-01

    Accurate estimates of net residual discharge in tidally affected rivers and estuaries are possible because of recently developed ultrasonic discharge measurement techniques. Previous discharge estimates using conventional mechanical current meters and methods based on stage/discharge relations or water slope measurements often yielded errors that were as great as or greater than the computed residual discharge. Ultrasonic measurement methods consist of: 1) the use of ultrasonic instruments for the measurement of a representative 'index' velocity used for in situ estimation of mean water velocity and 2) the use of the acoustic Doppler current discharge measurement system to calibrate the index velocity measurement data. Methods used to calibrate (rate) the index velocity to the channel velocity measured using the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler are the most critical factors affecting the accuracy of net discharge estimation. The index velocity first must be related to mean channel velocity and then used to calculate instantaneous channel discharge. Finally, discharge is low-pass filtered to remove the effects of the tides. An ultrasonic velocity meter discharge-measurement site in a tidally affected region of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers was used to study the accuracy of the index velocity calibration procedure. Calibration data consisting of ultrasonic velocity meter index velocity and concurrent acoustic Doppler discharge measurement data were collected during three time periods. Two sets of data were collected during a spring tide (monthly maximum tidal current) and one of data collected during a neap tide (monthly minimum tidal current). The relative magnitude of instrumental errors, acoustic Doppler discharge measurement errors, and calibration errors were evaluated. Calibration error was found to be the most significant source of error in estimating net discharge. Using a comprehensive calibration method, net discharge estimates developed from the three

  19. The problem of the second wind turbine - a note on a common but flawed wind power estimation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gans, F.; Miller, L. M.; Kleidon, A.

    2010-06-01

    Several recent wind power estimates suggest how this renewable resource can meet all of the current and future global energy demand with little impact on the atmosphere. These estimates are calculated using observed wind speeds in combination with specifications of wind turbine size and density to quantify the extractable wind power. Here we show that this common methodology is flawed because it does not account for energy removal by the turbines that is necessary to ensure the conservation of energy. We will first illustrate the common but flawed methodology using parameters from a recent global quantification of wind power in a simple experimental setup. For a small number of turbines at small scales, the conservation of energy hardly results in a difference when compared to the common method. However, when applied at large to global scales, the ability of radiative gradients to generate a finite amount of kinetic energy needs to be taken into account. Using the same experimental setup, we use the simplest method to ensure the conservation of energy to show a non-negligble decrease in wind velocity after the first turbine that will successively result in lower extraction of the downwind turbines. We then show how the conservation of energy inevitably results in substantially lower estimates of wind power at the global scale. Because conservation of energy is fundamental, we conclude that ultimately environmental constraints set the upper limit for wind power availability at the larger scale rather than detailed engineering specifications of the wind turbine design and placement.

  20. Monitoring the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programmes: methods to estimate coverage.

    PubMed Central

    Boerma, J. Ties; Stanecki, Karen A.; Newell, Marie-Louise; Luo, Chewe; Beusenberg, Michel; Garnett, Geoff P.; Little, Kirsty; Calleja, Jesus Garcia; Crowley, Siobhan; Kim, Jim Yong; Zaniewski, Elizabeth; Walker, Neff; Stover, John; Ghys, Peter D.

    2006-01-01

    This paper reviews the data sources and methods used to estimate the number of people on, and coverage of, antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in low- and middle-income countries and to monitor the progress towards the "3 by 5" target set by WHO and UNAIDS. We include a review of the data sources used to estimate the coverage of ART programmes as well as the efforts made to avoid double counting and over-reporting. The methods used to estimate the number of people in need of ART are described and expanded with estimates of treatment needs for children, both for ART and for cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. An estimated 6.5 million people were in need of treatment in low- and middle-income countries by the end of 2004, including 660,000 children under age 15 years. The mid-2005 estimate of 970,000 people receiving ART in low- and middle-income countries (with an uncertainty range 840,000-1,100,000) corresponds to a coverage of 15% of people in need of treatment. PMID:16501733

  1. A method to estimate spatiotemporal air quality in an urban traffic corridor.

    PubMed

    Singh, Nongthombam Premananda; Gokhale, Sharad

    2015-12-15

    Air quality exposure assessment using personal exposure sampling or direct measurement of spatiotemporal air pollutant concentrations has difficulty and limitations. Most statistical methods used for estimating spatiotemporal air quality do not account for the source characteristics (e.g. emissions). In this study, a prediction method, based on the lognormal probability distribution of hourly-average-spatial concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) obtained by a CALINE4 model, has been developed and validated in an urban traffic corridor. The data on CO concentrations were collected at three locations and traffic and meteorology within the urban traffic corridor.(1) The method has been developed with the data of one location and validated at other two locations. The method estimated the CO concentrations reasonably well (correlation coefficient, r≥0.96). Later, the method has been applied to estimate the probability of occurrence [P(C≥Cstd] of the spatial CO concentrations in the corridor. The results have been promising and, therefore, may be useful to quantifying spatiotemporal air quality within an urban area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Improving cluster-based missing value estimation of DNA microarray data.

    PubMed

    Brás, Lígia P; Menezes, José C

    2007-06-01

    We present a modification of the weighted K-nearest neighbours imputation method (KNNimpute) for missing values (MVs) estimation in microarray data based on the reuse of estimated data. The method was called iterative KNN imputation (IKNNimpute) as the estimation is performed iteratively using the recently estimated values. The estimation efficiency of IKNNimpute was assessed under different conditions (data type, fraction and structure of missing data) by the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and the correlation coefficients between estimated and true values, and compared with that of other cluster-based estimation methods (KNNimpute and sequential KNN). We further investigated the influence of imputation on the detection of differentially expressed genes using SAM by examining the differentially expressed genes that are lost after MV estimation. The performance measures give consistent results, indicating that the iterative procedure of IKNNimpute can enhance the prediction ability of cluster-based methods in the presence of high missing rates, in non-time series experiments and in data sets comprising both time series and non-time series data, because the information of the genes having MVs is used more efficiently and the iterative procedure allows refining the MV estimates. More importantly, IKNN has a smaller detrimental effect on the detection of differentially expressed genes.

  3. A comparison of methods for estimating the weight of preterm infants.

    PubMed

    Elser, A S; Vessey, J A

    1995-09-01

    Four methods of predicting a preterm infant's weight (upper mid-arm circumference, gestational age, tape measure nomogram, and guessing) were investigated to see which was the most accurate. The weights of 37 preterm neonates were initially guessed by an experienced clinician, then estimated by the other three approaches applied in a random order, and then confirmed through actual weighing. The correlations between the four estimated weights and the actual weights were .96, .84, .97, and .98, respectively. The tape measure nomogram method was the best overall approach for clinical use.

  4. Career Adapt-Abilities Scale--Netherlands Form: Psychometric Properties and Relationships to Ability, Personality, and Regulatory Focus

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Vianen, Annelies E. M.; Klehe, Ute-Christine; Koen, Jessie; Dries, Nicky

    2012-01-01

    The Career Adapt-Abilities Scale (CAAS)--Netherlands Form consists of four scales, each with six items, which measure concern, control, curiosity, and confidence as psychosocial resources for managing occupational transitions, developmental tasks, and work traumas. Internal consistency estimates for the subscale and total scores ranged from…

  5. SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fan, J; Fan, J; Hu, W

    Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditionalmore » probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.« less

  6. Estimation of regionalized compositions: A comparison of three methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pawlowsky, V.; Olea, R.A.; Davis, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    A regionalized composition is a random vector function whose components are positive and sum to a constant at every point of the sampling region. Consequently, the components of a regionalized composition are necessarily spatially correlated. This spatial dependence-induced by the constant sum constraint-is a spurious spatial correlation and may lead to misinterpretations of statistical analyses. Furthermore, the cross-covariance matrices of the regionalized composition are singular, as is the coefficient matrix of the cokriging system of equations. Three methods of performing estimation or prediction of a regionalized composition at unsampled points are discussed: (1) the direct approach of estimating each variable separately; (2) the basis method, which is applicable only when a random function is available that can he regarded as the size of the regionalized composition under study; (3) the logratio approach, using the additive-log-ratio transformation proposed by J. Aitchison, which allows statistical analysis of compositional data. We present a brief theoretical review of these three methods and compare them using compositional data from the Lyons West Oil Field in Kansas (USA). It is shown that, although there are no important numerical differences, the direct approach leads to invalid results, whereas the basis method and the additive-log-ratio approach are comparable. ?? 1995 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  7. Joint state and parameter estimation of the hemodynamic model by particle smoother expectation maximization method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aslan, Serdar; Taylan Cemgil, Ali; Akın, Ata

    2016-08-01

    Objective. In this paper, we aimed for the robust estimation of the parameters and states of the hemodynamic model by using blood oxygen level dependent signal. Approach. In the fMRI literature, there are only a few successful methods that are able to make a joint estimation of the states and parameters of the hemodynamic model. In this paper, we implemented a maximum likelihood based method called the particle smoother expectation maximization (PSEM) algorithm for the joint state and parameter estimation. Main results. Former sequential Monte Carlo methods were only reliable in the hemodynamic state estimates. They were claimed to outperform the local linearization (LL) filter and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The PSEM algorithm is compared with the most successful method called square-root cubature Kalman smoother (SCKS) for both state and parameter estimation. SCKS was found to be better than the dynamic expectation maximization (DEM) algorithm, which was shown to be a better estimator than EKF, LL and particle filters. Significance. PSEM was more accurate than SCKS for both the state and the parameter estimation. Hence, PSEM seems to be the most accurate method for the system identification and state estimation for the hemodynamic model inversion literature. This paper do not compare its results with Tikhonov-regularized Newton—CKF (TNF-CKF), a recent robust method which works in filtering sense.

  8. Simulation methods to estimate design power: an overview for applied research.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Benjamin F; Hogan, Daniel R; Colford, John M; Hubbard, Alan E

    2011-06-20

    Estimating the required sample size and statistical power for a study is an integral part of study design. For standard designs, power equations provide an efficient solution to the problem, but they are unavailable for many complex study designs that arise in practice. For such complex study designs, computer simulation is a useful alternative for estimating study power. Although this approach is well known among statisticians, in our experience many epidemiologists and social scientists are unfamiliar with the technique. This article aims to address this knowledge gap. We review an approach to estimate study power for individual- or cluster-randomized designs using computer simulation. This flexible approach arises naturally from the model used to derive conventional power equations, but extends those methods to accommodate arbitrarily complex designs. The method is universally applicable to a broad range of designs and outcomes, and we present the material in a way that is approachable for quantitative, applied researchers. We illustrate the method using two examples (one simple, one complex) based on sanitation and nutritional interventions to improve child growth. We first show how simulation reproduces conventional power estimates for simple randomized designs over a broad range of sample scenarios to familiarize the reader with the approach. We then demonstrate how to extend the simulation approach to more complex designs. Finally, we discuss extensions to the examples in the article, and provide computer code to efficiently run the example simulations in both R and Stata. Simulation methods offer a flexible option to estimate statistical power for standard and non-traditional study designs and parameters of interest. The approach we have described is universally applicable for evaluating study designs used in epidemiologic and social science research.

  9. Transport, biodegradation and isotopic fractionation of chlorinated ethenes: modeling and parameter estimation methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Béranger, Sandra C.; Sleep, Brent E.; Lollar, Barbara Sherwood; Monteagudo, Fernando Perez

    2005-01-01

    An analytical, one-dimensional, multi-species, reactive transport model for simulating the concentrations and isotopic signatures of tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and its daughter products was developed. The simulation model was coupled to a genetic algorithm (GA) combined with a gradient-based (GB) method to estimate the first order decay coefficients and enrichment factors. In testing with synthetic data, the hybrid GA-GB method reduced the computational requirements for parameter estimation by a factor as great as 300. The isotopic signature profiles were observed to be more sensitive than the concentration profiles to estimates of both the first order decay constants and enrichment factors. Including isotopic data for parameter estimation significantly increased the GA convergence rate and slightly improved the accuracy of estimation of first order decay constants.

  10. Sport fishing: a comparison of three indirect methods for estimating benefits.

    Treesearch

    Darrell L. Hueth; Elizabeth J. Strong; Roger D. Fight

    1988-01-01

    Three market-based methods for estimating values of sport fishing were compared by using a common data base. The three approaches were the travel-cost method, the hedonic travel-cost method, and the household-production method. A theoretical comparison of the resulting values showed that the results were not fully comparable in several ways. The comparison of empirical...

  11. Statistical study of generalized nonlinear phase step estimation methods in phase-shifting interferometry.

    PubMed

    Langoju, Rajesh; Patil, Abhijit; Rastogi, Pramod

    2007-11-20

    Signal processing methods based on maximum-likelihood theory, discrete chirp Fourier transform, and spectral estimation methods have enabled accurate measurement of phase in phase-shifting interferometry in the presence of nonlinear response of the piezoelectric transducer to the applied voltage. We present the statistical study of these generalized nonlinear phase step estimation methods to identify the best method by deriving the Cramér-Rao bound. We also address important aspects of these methods for implementation in practical applications and compare the performance of the best-identified method with other bench marking algorithms in the presence of harmonics and noise.

  12. Using Lego robots to estimate cognitive ability in children who have severe physical disabilities.

    PubMed

    Cook, Albert M; Adams, Kim; Volden, Joanne; Harbottle, Norma; Harbottle, Cheryl

    2011-01-01

    To determine whether low-cost robots provide a means by which children with severe disabilities can demonstrate understanding of cognitive concepts. Ten children, ages 4 to 10, diagnosed with cerebral palsy and related motor conditions, participated. Participants had widely variable motor, cognitive and receptive language skills, but all were non-speaking. A Lego Invention 'roverbot' was used to carry out a range of functional tasks from single-switch replay of pre-stored movements to total control of the movement in two dimensions. The level of sophistication achieved on hierarchically arranged play tasks was used to estimate cognitive skills. The 10 children performed at one of the six hierarchically arranged levels from 'no interaction' through 'simple cause and effect' to 'development and execution of a plan'. Teacher interviews revealed that children were interested in the robot, enjoyed interacting with it and demonstrated changes in behaviour and social and language skills following interaction. Children with severe physical disabilities can control a Lego robot to perform un-structured play tasks. In some cases, they were able to display more sophisticated cognitive skills through manipulating the robot than in traditional standardised tests. Success with the robot could be a proxy measure for children who have cognitive abilities but cannot demonstrate them in standard testing.

  13. A method for estimating the performance of photovoltaic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, D. R.; Klein, S. A.; Beckman, W. A.

    A method is presented for predicting the long-term average performance of photovoltaic systems having storage batteries and subject to any diurnal load profile. The monthly-average fraction of the load met by the system is estimated from array parameters and monthly-average meteorological data. The method is based on radiation statistics, and utilizability, and can account for variability in the electrical demand as well as for the variability in solar radiation.

  14. Validity of the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) for estimating energy and nutrient intake in near real-time

    PubMed Central

    Martin, C. K.; Correa, J. B.; Han, H.; Allen, H. R.; Rood, J.; Champagne, C. M.; Gunturk, B. K.; Bray, G. A.

    2014-01-01

    Two studies are reported; a pilot study to demonstrate feasibility followed by a larger validity study. Study 1’s objective was to test the effect of two ecological momentary assessment (EMA) approaches that varied in intensity on the validity/accuracy of estimating energy intake with the Remote Food Photography Method (RFPM) over six days in free-living conditions. When using the RFPM, Smartphones are used to capture images of food selection and plate waste and to send the images to a server for food intake estimation. Consistent with EMA, prompts are sent to the Smartphones reminding participants to capture food images. During Study 1, energy intake estimated with the RFPM and the gold standard, doubly labeled water (DLW), were compared. Participants were assigned to receive Standard EMA Prompts (n=24) or Customized Prompts (n=16) (the latter received more reminders delivered at personalized meal times). The RFPM differed significantly from DLW at estimating energy intake when Standard (mean±SD = −895±770 kcal/day, p<.0001), but not Customized Prompts (−270±748 kcal/day, p=.22) were used. Error (energy intake from the RFPM minus that from DLW) was significantly smaller with Customized vs. Standard Prompts. The objectives of Study 2 included testing the RFPM’s ability to accurately estimate energy intake in free-living adults (N=50) over six days, and energy and nutrient intake in laboratory-based meals. The RFPM did not differ significantly from DLW at estimating free-living energy intake (−152±694 kcal/day, p=0.16). During laboratory-based meals, estimating energy and macronutrient intake with the RFPM did not differ significantly compared to directly weighed intake. PMID:22134199

  15. Effectiveness of Item Response Theory (IRT) Proficiency Estimation Methods under Adaptive Multistage Testing. Research Report. ETS RR-15-11

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sooyeon; Moses, Tim; Yoo, Hanwook Henry

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this inquiry was to investigate the effectiveness of item response theory (IRT) proficiency estimators in terms of estimation bias and error under multistage testing (MST). We chose a 2-stage MST design in which 1 adaptation to the examinees' ability levels takes place. It includes 4 modules (1 at Stage 1, 3 at Stage 2) and 3 paths…

  16. Methods of adjusting the stable estimates of fertility for the effects of mortality decline.

    PubMed

    Abou-Gamrah, H

    1976-03-01

    Summary The paper shows how stable population methods, based on the age structure and the rate of increase, may be used to estimate the demographic measures of a quasi-stable population. After a discussion of known methods for adjusting the stable estimates to allow for the effects of mortality decline two new methods are presented, the application of which requires less information. The first method does not need any supplementary information, and the second method requires an estimate of the difference between the last two five-year intercensal rates of increase, i.e. five times the annual change of the rate of increase during the last ten years. For these new methods we do not need to know the onset year of mortality decline as in the Coale-Demeny method, or a long series of rates of increase as in Zachariah's method.

  17. Determination of stability and control parameters of a light airplane from flight data using two estimation methods. [equation error and maximum likelihood methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, V.

    1979-01-01

    Two identification methods, the equation error method and the output error method, are used to estimate stability and control parameter values from flight data for a low-wing, single-engine, general aviation airplane. The estimated parameters from both methods are in very good agreement primarily because of sufficient accuracy of measured data. The estimated static parameters also agree with the results from steady flights. The effect of power different input forms are demonstrated. Examination of all results available gives the best values of estimated parameters and specifies their accuracies.

  18. Sparse Method for Direction of Arrival Estimation Using Denoised Fourth-Order Cumulants Vector.

    PubMed

    Fan, Yangyu; Wang, Jianshu; Du, Rui; Lv, Guoyun

    2018-06-04

    Fourth-order cumulants (FOCs) vector-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation methods of non-Gaussian sources may suffer from poor performance for limited snapshots or difficulty in setting parameters. In this paper, a novel FOCs vector-based sparse DOA estimation method is proposed. Firstly, by utilizing the concept of a fourth-order difference co-array (FODCA), an advanced FOCs vector denoising or dimension reduction procedure is presented for arbitrary array geometries. Then, a novel single measurement vector (SMV) model is established by the denoised FOCs vector, and efficiently solved by an off-grid sparse Bayesian inference (OGSBI) method. The estimation errors of FOCs are integrated in the SMV model, and are approximately estimated in a simple way. A necessary condition regarding the number of identifiable sources of our method is presented that, in order to uniquely identify all sources, the number of sources K must fulfill K ≤ ( M 4 - 2 M 3 + 7 M 2 - 6 M ) / 8 . The proposed method suits any geometry, does not need prior knowledge of the number of sources, is insensitive to associated parameters, and has maximum identifiability O ( M 4 ) , where M is the number of sensors in the array. Numerical simulations illustrate the superior performance of the proposed method.

  19. Lidar method to estimate emission rates from extended sources

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Currently, point measurements, often combined with models, are the primary means by which atmospheric emission rates are estimated from extended sources. However, these methods often fall short in their spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. In recent years, lidar has emerged as a suitable to...

  20. Simulated maximum likelihood method for estimating kinetic rates in gene expression.

    PubMed

    Tian, Tianhai; Xu, Songlin; Gao, Junbin; Burrage, Kevin

    2007-01-01

    Kinetic rate in gene expression is a key measurement of the stability of gene products and gives important information for the reconstruction of genetic regulatory networks. Recent developments in experimental technologies have made it possible to measure the numbers of transcripts and protein molecules in single cells. Although estimation methods based on deterministic models have been proposed aimed at evaluating kinetic rates from experimental observations, these methods cannot tackle noise in gene expression that may arise from discrete processes of gene expression, small numbers of mRNA transcript, fluctuations in the activity of transcriptional factors and variability in the experimental environment. In this paper, we develop effective methods for estimating kinetic rates in genetic regulatory networks. The simulated maximum likelihood method is used to evaluate parameters in stochastic models described by either stochastic differential equations or discrete biochemical reactions. Different types of non-parametric density functions are used to measure the transitional probability of experimental observations. For stochastic models described by biochemical reactions, we propose to use the simulated frequency distribution to evaluate the transitional density based on the discrete nature of stochastic simulations. The genetic optimization algorithm is used as an efficient tool to search for optimal reaction rates. Numerical results indicate that the proposed methods can give robust estimations of kinetic rates with good accuracy.

  1. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods

    PubMed Central

    Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2014-01-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture–recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture–recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998–3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916–2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture–recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture–recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. PMID:25336306

  2. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

    PubMed

    Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2015-10-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. View Estimation Based on Value System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yasutake; Shimada, Kouki; Asada, Minoru

    Estimation of a caregiver's view is one of the most important capabilities for a child to understand the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver, that is, to infer the intention of behavior and/or to learn the observed behavior efficiently. We hypothesize that the child develops this ability in the same way as behavior learning motivated by an intrinsic reward, that is, he/she updates the model of the estimated view of his/her own during the behavior imitated from the observation of the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver based on minimizing the estimation error of the reward during the behavior. From this view, this paper shows a method for acquiring such a capability based on a value system from which values can be obtained by reinforcement learning. The parameters of the view estimation are updated based on the temporal difference error (hereafter TD error: estimation error of the state value), analogous to the way such that the parameters of the state value of the behavior are updated based on the TD error. Experiments with simple humanoid robots show the validity of the method, and the developmental process parallel to young children's estimation of its own view during the imitation of the observed behavior of the caregiver is discussed.

  4. A Comparison of Item Selection Procedures Using Different Ability Estimation Methods in Computerized Adaptive Testing Based on the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Tsung-Han

    2010-01-01

    Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a highly efficient alternative to the paper-and-pencil test. By selecting items that match examinees' ability levels, CAT not only can shorten test length and administration time but it can also increase measurement precision and reduce measurement error. In CAT, maximum information (MI) is the most…

  5. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, andmore » a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.« less

  6. The Effects of Presentation Method and Information Density on Visual Search Ability and Working Memory Load

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Ting-Wen; Kinshuk; Chen, Nian-Shing; Yu, Pao-Ta

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the effects of successive and simultaneous information presentation methods on learner's visual search ability and working memory load for different information densities. Since the processing of information in the brain depends on the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM), the limited information processing capacity…

  7. Probabilistic seismic loss estimation via endurance time method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tafakori, Ehsan; Pourzeynali, Saeid; Estekanchi, Homayoon E.

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation is a methodology used as a quantitative and explicit expression of the performance of buildings using terms that address the interests of both owners and insurance companies. Applying the ATC 58 approach for seismic loss assessment of buildings requires using Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA), which needs hundreds of time-consuming analyses, which in turn hinders its wide application. The Endurance Time Method (ETM) is proposed herein as part of a demand propagation prediction procedure and is shown to be an economical alternative to IDA. Various scenarios were considered to achieve this purpose and their appropriateness has been evaluated using statistical methods. The most precise and efficient scenario was validated through comparison against IDA driven response predictions of 34 code conforming benchmark structures and was proven to be sufficiently precise while offering a great deal of efficiency. The loss values were estimated by replacing IDA with the proposed ETM-based procedure in the ATC 58 procedure and it was found that these values suffer from varying inaccuracies, which were attributed to the discretized nature of damage and loss prediction functions provided by ATC 58.

  8. Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

    2009-02-01

    Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

  9. Sub-pixel Area Calculation Methods for Estimating Irrigated Areas.

    PubMed

    Thenkabailc, Prasad S; Biradar, Chandrashekar M; Noojipady, Praveen; Cai, Xueliang; Dheeravath, Venkateswarlu; Li, Yuanjie; Velpuri, Manohar; Gumma, Muralikrishna; Pandey, Suraj

    2007-10-31

    The goal of this paper was to develop and demonstrate practical methods forcomputing sub-pixel areas (SPAs) from coarse-resolution satellite sensor data. Themethods were tested and verified using: (a) global irrigated area map (GIAM) at 10-kmresolution based, primarily, on AVHRR data, and (b) irrigated area map for India at 500-mbased, primarily, on MODIS data. The sub-pixel irrigated areas (SPIAs) from coarse-resolution satellite sensor data were estimated by multiplying the full pixel irrigated areas(FPIAs) with irrigated area fractions (IAFs). Three methods were presented for IAFcomputation: (a) Google Earth Estimate (IAF-GEE); (b) High resolution imagery (IAF-HRI); and (c) Sub-pixel de-composition technique (IAF-SPDT). The IAF-GEE involvedthe use of "zoom-in-views" of sub-meter to 4-meter very high resolution imagery (VHRI)from Google Earth and helped determine total area available for irrigation (TAAI) or netirrigated areas that does not consider intensity or seasonality of irrigation. The IAF-HRI isa well known method that uses finer-resolution data to determine SPAs of the coarser-resolution imagery. The IAF-SPDT is a unique and innovative method wherein SPAs aredetermined based on the precise location of every pixel of a class in 2-dimensionalbrightness-greenness-wetness (BGW) feature-space plot of red band versus near-infraredband spectral reflectivity. The SPIAs computed using IAF-SPDT for the GIAM was within2 % of the SPIA computed using well known IAF-HRI. Further the fractions from the 2 methods were significantly correlated. The IAF-HRI and IAF-SPDT help to determine annualized or gross irrigated areas (AIA) that does consider intensity or seasonality (e.g., sum of areas from season 1, season 2, and continuous year-round crops). The national census based irrigated areas for the top 40 irrigated nations (which covers about 90% of global irrigation) was significantly better related (and had lesser uncertainties and errors) when compared to SPIAs than

  10. Efficient, adaptive estimation of two-dimensional firing rate surfaces via Gaussian process methods.

    PubMed

    Rad, Kamiar Rahnama; Paninski, Liam

    2010-01-01

    Estimating two-dimensional firing rate maps is a common problem, arising in a number of contexts: the estimation of place fields in hippocampus, the analysis of temporally nonstationary tuning curves in sensory and motor areas, the estimation of firing rates following spike-triggered covariance analyses, etc. Here we introduce methods based on Gaussian process nonparametric Bayesian techniques for estimating these two-dimensional rate maps. These techniques offer a number of advantages: the estimates may be computed efficiently, come equipped with natural errorbars, adapt their smoothness automatically to the local density and informativeness of the observed data, and permit direct fitting of the model hyperparameters (e.g., the prior smoothness of the rate map) via maximum marginal likelihood. We illustrate the method's flexibility and performance on a variety of simulated and real data.

  11. Methods to estimate irrigated reference crop evapotranspiration - a review.

    PubMed

    Kumar, R; Jat, M K; Shankar, V

    2012-01-01

    Efficient water management of crops requires accurate irrigation scheduling which, in turn, requires the accurate measurement of crop water requirement. Irrigation is applied to replenish depleted moisture for optimum plant growth. Reference evapotranspiration plays an important role for the determination of water requirements for crops and irrigation scheduling. Various models/approaches varying from empirical to physically base distributed are available for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration. Mathematical models are useful tools to estimate the evapotranspiration and water requirement of crops, which is essential information required to design or choose best water management practices. In this paper the most commonly used models/approaches, which are suitable for the estimation of daily water requirement for agricultural crops grown in different agro-climatic regions, are reviewed. Further, an effort has been made to compare the accuracy of various widely used methods under different climatic conditions.

  12. [Estimation with the capture-recapture method of the number of economic immigrants in Mallorca].

    PubMed

    Ramos Monserrat, M; March Cerdá, J C

    2002-05-15

    estimate the number of irregular economic immigrants in Mallorca. We used the capture-recapture method, an indirect method based on contrasts of data from two or more sources. Data were obtained from the Delegación de Gobierno (police and immigration authority), Comisiones Obreras (labor union), and institutions that provide health-related services to immigrants. Individuals were identified by birth date and country of origin. The total number of economic immigrants estimated with this method was 39 392. According to the Delegación de Gobierno data, the number of regular immigrants on the date of our inquiry was 9000. With the capture-recapture method, the number of irregular immigrants in Mallorca was therefore estimated at 30 000. The capture-recapture method can be useful to estimate the population of irregular immigrants in a given area at a given time, if sufficiently precise information on the identity of each individual can be obtained.

  13. A New Formulation of the Filter-Error Method for Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation in Turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Morelli, Eugene A.

    2015-01-01

    A new formulation of the filter-error method for estimating aerodynamic parameters in nonlinear aircraft dynamic models during turbulence was developed and demonstrated. The approach uses an estimate of the measurement noise covariance to identify the model parameters, their uncertainties, and the process noise covariance, in a relaxation method analogous to the output-error method. Prior information on the model parameters and uncertainties can be supplied, and a post-estimation correction to the uncertainty was included to account for colored residuals not considered in the theory. No tuning parameters, needing adjustment by the analyst, are used in the estimation. The method was demonstrated in simulation using the NASA Generic Transport Model, then applied to the subscale T-2 jet-engine transport aircraft flight. Modeling results in different levels of turbulence were compared with results from time-domain output error and frequency- domain equation error methods to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

  14. Clinical attachment loss: estimation by direct and indirect methods.

    PubMed

    Barbosa, Viviane Leal; Angst, Patricia D Melchiors; Finger Stadler, Amanda; Oppermann, Rui V; Gomes, Sabrina Carvalho

    2016-06-01

    This observational study aimed to compare the estimation of clinical attachment loss (CAL) as measured by direct (CALD ) and indirect (CALI ) methods. Periodontitis patients (n = 75; mean age: 50.9 ± 8.02 years; 72.2% women; 50.6% smokers) received a periodontal examination (six sites/tooth) to determine the presence of visible plaque and calculus, the gingival bleeding index (GBI), periodontal probing depth (PPD), bleeding on probing (BOP), CALD and gingival recession (GR). CALI values resulted from the sum of PPD and GR values. Statistical analysis considered only data from sites with visible GR (e.g. the gingival margin apical to the cemento-enamel junction; n = 4,757 sites) and determined the mean difference between CALI and CALD measurements. Based on the mean difference, univariate and multivariate analyses were also performed. Mean CALD and CALI values were 3.96 ± 2.07 mm and 4.47 ± 2.03 mm, respectively. The indirect method overestimated CAL compared with the direct method (mean difference: 0.51 ± 1.23 mm; P < 0.001). On uni- and multivariate analyses, absence of GBI and BOP, PPD and proximal site location had significant influences on the overestimation of CAL by the indirect method (all P ≤ 0.01). The indirect method increased the CAL value by 0.38 mm for each additional 1 mm in PPD. To decrease the number of probing errors in daily practice it is suggested that direct examination is more appropriate than the indirect method for estimating CAL. © 2016 FDI World Dental Federation.

  15. Assessing Professional Decision-Making Abilities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNergney, Robert; Hinson, Stephanie

    1985-01-01

    Describes Teacher Development Decision Exercises, a computer-based method of diagnosing abilities of elementary and secondary school supervisors (principals, staff developers, curriculum coordinators) to make professional preactive or planning decisions. This approval simulates assessment of supervisors' abilities to use professional knowledge to…

  16. Glacier volume estimation of Cascade Volcanoes—an analysis and comparison with other methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Driedger, Carolyn L.; Kennard, P.M.

    1986-01-01

    During the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, the occurrence of floods and mudflows made apparent a need to assess mudflow hazards on other Cascade volcanoes. A basic requirement for such analysis is information about the volume and distribution of snow and ice on these volcanoes. An analysis was made of the volume-estimation methods developed by previous authors and a volume estimation method was developed for use in the Cascade Range. A radio echo-sounder, carried in a backpack, was used to make point measurements of ice thickness on major glaciers of four Cascade volcanoes (Mount Rainier, Washington; Mount Hood and the Three Sisters, Oregon; and Mount Shasta, California). These data were used to generate ice-thickness maps and bedrock topographic maps for developing and testing volume-estimation methods. Subsequently, the methods were applied to the unmeasured glaciers on those mountains and, as a test of the geographical extent of applicability, to glaciers beyond the Cascades having measured volumes. Two empirical relationships were required in order to predict volumes for all the glaciers. Generally, for glaciers less than 2.6 km in length, volume was found to be estimated best by using glacier area, raised to a power. For longer glaciers, volume was found to be estimated best by using a power law relationship, including slope and shear stress. The necessary variables can be estimated from topographic maps and aerial photographs.

  17. Demographic estimation methods for plants with dormancy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.

    2004-01-01

    Demographic studies in plants appear simple because unlike animals, plants do not run away. Plant individuals can be marked with, e.g., plastic tags, but often the coordinates of an individual may be sufficient to identify it. Vascular plants in temperate latitudes have a pronounced seasonal life–cycle, so most plant demographers survey their study plots once a year often during or shortly after flowering. Life–states are pervasive in plants, hence the results of a demographic study for an individual can be summarized in a familiar encounter history, such as 0VFVVF000. A zero means that an individual was not seen in a year and a letter denotes its state for years when it was seen aboveground. V and F here stand for vegetative and flowering states, respectively. Probabilities of survival and state transitions can then be obtained by mere counting.Problems arise when there is an unobservable dormant state, i.e., when plants may stay belowground for one or more growing seasons. Encounter histories such as 0VF00F000 may then occur where the meaning of zeroes becomes ambiguous. A zero can either mean a dead or a dormant plant. Various ad hoc methods in wide use among plant ecologists have made strong assumptions about when a zero should be equated to a dormant individual. These methods have never been compared among each other. In our talk and in Kéry et al. (submitted), we show that these ad hoc estimators provide spurious estimates of survival and should not be used.In contrast, if detection probabilities for aboveground plants are known or can be estimated, capturerecapture (CR) models can be used to estimate probabilities of survival and state–transitions and the fraction of the population that is dormant. We have used this approach in two studies of terrestrial orchids, Cleistes bifaria (Kéry et al., submitted) and Cypripedium reginae(Kéry & Gregg, submitted) in West Virginia, U.S.A. For Cleistes, our data comprised one population with a total of 620

  18. Evaluation of estimation methods for organic carbon normalized sorption coefficients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baker, James R.; Mihelcic, James R.; Luehrs, Dean C.; Hickey, James P.

    1997-01-01

    A critically evaluated set of 94 soil water partition coefficients normalized to soil organic carbon content (Koc) is presented for 11 classes of organic chemicals. This data set is used to develop and evaluate Koc estimation methods using three different descriptors. The three types of descriptors used in predicting Koc were octanol/water partition coefficient (Kow), molecular connectivity (mXt) and linear solvation energy relationships (LSERs). The best results were obtained estimating Koc from Kow, though a slight improvement in the correlation coefficient was obtained by using a two-parameter regression with Kow and the third order difference term from mXt. Molecular connectivity correlations seemed to be best suited for use with specific chemical classes. The LSER provided a better fit than mXt but not as good as the correlation with Koc. The correlation to predict Koc from Kow was developed for 72 chemicals; log Koc = 0.903* log Kow + 0.094. This correlation accounts for 91% of the variability in the data for chemicals with log Kow ranging from 1.7 to 7.0. The expression to determine the 95% confidence interval on the estimated Koc is provided along with an example for two chemicals of different hydrophobicity showing the confidence interval of the retardation factor determined from the estimated Koc. The data showed that Koc is not likely to be applicable for chemicals with log Kow < 1.7. Finally, the Koc correlation developed using Kow as a descriptor was compared with three nonclass-specific correlations and two 'commonly used' class-specific correlations to determine which method(s) are most suitable.

  19. Satellite-derived methane hotspot emission estimates using a fast data-driven method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buchwitz, Michael; Schneising, Oliver; Reuter, Maximilian; Heymann, Jens; Krautwurst, Sven; Bovensmann, Heinrich; Burrows, John P.; Boesch, Hartmut; Parker, Robert J.; Somkuti, Peter; Detmers, Rob G.; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Aben, Ilse; Butz, André; Frankenberg, Christian; Turner, Alexander J.

    2017-05-01

    Methane is an important atmospheric greenhouse gas and an adequate understanding of its emission sources is needed for climate change assessments, predictions, and the development and verification of emission mitigation strategies. Satellite retrievals of near-surface-sensitive column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of atmospheric methane, i.e. XCH4, can be used to quantify methane emissions. Maps of time-averaged satellite-derived XCH4 show regionally elevated methane over several methane source regions. In order to obtain methane emissions of these source regions we use a simple and fast data-driven method to estimate annual methane emissions and corresponding 1σ uncertainties directly from maps of annually averaged satellite XCH4. From theoretical considerations we expect that our method tends to underestimate emissions. When applying our method to high-resolution atmospheric methane simulations, we typically find agreement within the uncertainty range of our method (often 100 %) but also find that our method tends to underestimate emissions by typically about 40 %. To what extent these findings are model dependent needs to be assessed. We apply our method to an ensemble of satellite XCH4 data products consisting of two products from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and two products from TANSO-FTS/GOSAT covering the time period 2003-2014. We obtain annual emissions of four source areas: Four Corners in the south-western USA, the southern part of Central Valley, California, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. We find that our estimated emissions are in good agreement with independently derived estimates for Four Corners and Azerbaijan. For the Central Valley and Turkmenistan our estimated annual emissions are higher compared to the EDGAR v4.2 anthropogenic emission inventory. For Turkmenistan we find on average about 50 % higher emissions with our annual emission uncertainty estimates overlapping with the EDGAR emissions. For the region around Bakersfield in the Central Valley we

  20. Inventory-based estimates of forest biomass carbon stocks in China: A comparison of three methods

    Treesearch

    Zhaodi Guo; Jingyun Fang; Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey

    2010-01-01

    Several studies have reported different estimates for forest biomass carbon (C) stocks in China. The discrepancy among these estimates may be largely attributed to the methods used. In this study, we used three methods [mean biomass density method (MBM), mean ratio method (MRM), and continuous biomass expansion factor (BEF) method (abbreviated as CBM)] applied to...

  1. Reading Ability as an Estimator of Premorbid Intelligence: Does It Remain Stable Among Ethnically Diverse HIV+ Adults?

    PubMed Central

    Olsen, J. Pat; Fellows, Robert P.; Rivera-Mindt, Monica; Morgello, Susan; Byrd, Desiree A.

    2015-01-01

    The Wide Range Achievement Test, 3rd edition, Reading-Recognition subtest (WRAT-3 RR) is an established measure of premorbid ability. Furthermore, its long-term reliability is not well documented, particularly in diverse populations with CNS-relevant disease. Objective: We examined test-retest reliability of the WRAT-3 RR over time in an HIV+ sample of predominantly racial/ethnic minority adults. Method: Participants (N = 88) completed a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, including the WRAT-3 RR, on at least two separate study visits. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were computed using scores from baseline and follow-up assessments to determine the test-retest reliability of the WRAT-3 RR across racial/ethnic groups and changes in medical (immunological) and clinical (neurocognitive) factors. Additionally, Fisher’s Z tests were used to determine the significance of the differences between ICCs. Results: The average test-retest interval was 58.7 months (SD=36.4). The overall WRAT-3 RR test-retest reliability was high (r = .97, p < .001), and remained robust across all demographic, medical, and clinical variables (all r’s > .92). Intraclass correlation coefficients did not differ significantly between the subgroups tested (all Fisher’s Z p’s > .05). Conclusions: Overall, this study supports the appropriateness of word-reading tests, such as the WRAT-3 RR, for use as stable premorbid IQ estimates among ethnically diverse groups. Moreover, this study supports the reliability of this measure in the context of change in health and neurocognitive status, and in lengthy inter-test intervals. These findings offer strong rationale for reading as a “hold” test, even in the presence of a chronic, variable disease such as HIV. PMID:26689235

  2. Estimates of general combining ability in Hevea breeding at the Rubber Research Institute of Malaysia : I. Phases II and III A.

    PubMed

    Tan, H

    1977-01-01

    Estimates of general combining ability of parents for yield and girth obtained separately from seedlings and their corresponding clonal families in Phases II and IIIA of the RRIM breeding programme are compared. A highly significant positive correlation (r = 0.71***) is found between GCA estimates from seedling and clonal families for yield in Phase IIIA, but not in Phase II (r = -0.03(NS)) nor for girth (r= -0.27(NS)) in Phase IIIA. The correlations for Phase II yield and Phase IIIA girth, however, improve when the GCA estimates based on small sample size or reversed rankings are excluded.When the best selections (based on present clonal and seedling information) are compared, all five of the parents top-ranking for yield are common in Phase IIIA but only two parents are common for yield and girth in Phases II and IIIA respectively. However, only one parent for yield in Phase II and two parents for girth in Phase IIIA would, if selected on clonal performance, have been omitted from the top ranking selections made by previous workers using seedling information.These findings, therefore, justify the choice of parents based on GCA estimates for yield obtained from seedling performance. Similar justification cannot be offered for girth, for which analysis is confounded by uninterpretable site and seasonal effects.

  3. Recollection, not familiarity, decreases in healthy aging: Converging evidence from four estimation methods

    PubMed Central

    Koen, Joshua D.; Yonelinas, Andrew P.

    2014-01-01

    Although it is generally accepted that aging is associated with recollection impairments, there is considerable disagreement surrounding how healthy aging influences familiarity-based recognition. One factor that might contribute to the mixed findings regarding age differences in familiarity is the estimation method used to quantify the two mnemonic processes. Here, this issue is examined by having a group of older adults (N = 39) between 40 and 81 years of age complete Remember/Know (RK), receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and process dissociation (PD) recognition tests. Estimates of recollection, but not familiarity, showed a significant negative correlation with chronological age. Inconsistent with previous findings, the estimation method did not moderate the relationship between age and estimations of recollection and familiarity. In a final analysis, recollection and familiarity were estimated as latent factors in a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) that modeled the covariance between measures of free recall and recognition, and the results converged with the results from the RK, PD, and ROC tasks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that episodic memory declines in older adults are primary driven by recollection deficits, and also suggest that the estimation method plays little to no role in age-related decreases in familiarity. PMID:25485974

  4. A Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Determinant of High-Dimensional Covariance Matrix.

    PubMed

    Hu, Zongliang; Dong, Kai; Dai, Wenlin; Tong, Tiejun

    2017-09-21

    The determinant of the covariance matrix for high-dimensional data plays an important role in statistical inference and decision. It has many real applications including statistical tests and information theory. Due to the statistical and computational challenges with high dimensionality, little work has been proposed in the literature for estimating the determinant of high-dimensional covariance matrix. In this paper, we estimate the determinant of the covariance matrix using some recent proposals for estimating high-dimensional covariance matrix. Specifically, we consider a total of eight covariance matrix estimation methods for comparison. Through extensive simulation studies, we explore and summarize some interesting comparison results among all compared methods. We also provide practical guidelines based on the sample size, the dimension, and the correlation of the data set for estimating the determinant of high-dimensional covariance matrix. Finally, from a perspective of the loss function, the comparison study in this paper may also serve as a proxy to assess the performance of the covariance matrix estimation.

  5. A nuclear scanning method for estimating wear level nonuniformities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, E. A.; Pascovici, G.; Racolta, P. M.

    1993-09-01

    The residual radioactivity measuring method has been upgraded to estimate wear level nonuniformities in the circumference of a piston ring after a certain working time in the combustion engine testing bench. The piston ring was irradiated by the thin layer activation (TLA) technique and its radioactivity was continuously monitored.

  6. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  7. Feasibility of an estimated method using graduated utensils to estimate food portion size in infants aged 4 to 18 months.

    PubMed

    Bradley, Jennifer; West-Sadler, Sarah; Foster, Emma; Sommerville, Jill; Allen, Rachel; Stephen, Alison M; Adamson, Ashley J

    2018-01-01

    The Diet and Nutrition Survey of Infants and Young Children (DNSIYC) was carried out in 2011 to assess the nutrient intakes of 4 to 18 month old infants in the UK. Prior to the main stage of DNSIYC, pilot work was undertaken to determine the impact of using graduated utensils to estimate portion sizes. The aims were to assess whether the provision of graduated utensils altered either the foods given to infants or the amount consumed by comparing estimated intakes to weighed intakes. Parents completed two 4-day food diaries over a two week period; an estimated diary using graduated utensils and a weighed diary. Two estimated diary formats were tested; half the participants completed estimated diaries in which they recorded the amount of food/drink served and the amount left over, and the other half recorded the amount of food/drink consumed only. Median daily food intake for the estimated and the weighed method were similar; 980g and 928g respectively. There was a small (6.6%) but statistically significant difference in energy intake reported by the estimated and the weighed method; 3189kJ and 2978kJ respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between estimated intakes from the served and left over diaries and weighed intakes (p>0.05). Estimated intakes from the amount consumed diaries were significantly different to weighed intakes (food weight (g) p = 0.02; energy (kJ) p = 0.01). There were no differences in intakes of amorphous (foods which take the shape of the container, e.g. pureed foods, porridge) and discrete food items (individual pieces of food e.g. biscuits, rice cakes) between the two methods. The results suggest that the household measures approach to reporting portion size, with the combined use of the graduated utensils, and recording the amount served and the amount left over in the food diaries, may provide a feasible alternative to weighed intakes.

  8. Feasibility of an estimated method using graduated utensils to estimate food portion size in infants aged 4 to 18 months

    PubMed Central

    West-Sadler, Sarah; Foster, Emma; Sommerville, Jill; Allen, Rachel; Stephen, Alison M.; Adamson, Ashley J.

    2018-01-01

    The Diet and Nutrition Survey of Infants and Young Children (DNSIYC) was carried out in 2011 to assess the nutrient intakes of 4 to 18 month old infants in the UK. Prior to the main stage of DNSIYC, pilot work was undertaken to determine the impact of using graduated utensils to estimate portion sizes. The aims were to assess whether the provision of graduated utensils altered either the foods given to infants or the amount consumed by comparing estimated intakes to weighed intakes. Parents completed two 4-day food diaries over a two week period; an estimated diary using graduated utensils and a weighed diary. Two estimated diary formats were tested; half the participants completed estimated diaries in which they recorded the amount of food/drink served and the amount left over, and the other half recorded the amount of food/drink consumed only. Median daily food intake for the estimated and the weighed method were similar; 980g and 928g respectively. There was a small (6.6%) but statistically significant difference in energy intake reported by the estimated and the weighed method; 3189kJ and 2978kJ respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between estimated intakes from the served and left over diaries and weighed intakes (p>0.05). Estimated intakes from the amount consumed diaries were significantly different to weighed intakes (food weight (g) p = 0.02; energy (kJ) p = 0.01). There were no differences in intakes of amorphous (foods which take the shape of the container, e.g. pureed foods, porridge) and discrete food items (individual pieces of food e.g. biscuits, rice cakes) between the two methods. The results suggest that the household measures approach to reporting portion size, with the combined use of the graduated utensils, and recording the amount served and the amount left over in the food diaries, may provide a feasible alternative to weighed intakes. PMID:29879140

  9. Improving the Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Piland, William M.; Pine, David J.; Wilson, Delano M.

    2000-01-01

    The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning man), program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility.

  10. An applicable method for efficiency estimation of operating tray distillation columns and its comparison with the methods utilized in HYSYS and Aspen Plus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadeghifar, Hamidreza

    2015-10-01

    Developing general methods that rely on column data for the efficiency estimation of operating (existing) distillation columns has been overlooked in the literature. Most of the available methods are based on empirical mass transfer and hydraulic relations correlated to laboratory data. Therefore, these methods may not be sufficiently accurate when applied to industrial columns. In this paper, an applicable and accurate method was developed for the efficiency estimation of distillation columns filled with trays. This method can calculate efficiency as well as mass and heat transfer coefficients without using any empirical mass transfer or hydraulic correlations and without the need to estimate operational or hydraulic parameters of the column. E.g., the method does not need to estimate tray interfacial area, which can be its most important advantage over all the available methods. The method can be used for the efficiency prediction of any trays in distillation columns. For the efficiency calculation, the method employs the column data and uses the true rates of the mass and heat transfers occurring inside the operating column. It is highly emphasized that estimating efficiency of an operating column has to be distinguished from that of a column being designed.

  11. Method for rapid estimation of scour at highway bridges based on limited site data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holnbeck, S.R.; Parrett, Charles

    1997-01-01

    Limited site data were used to develop a method for rapid estimation of scour at highway bridges. The estimates can be obtained in a matter of hours rather than several days as required by more-detailed methods. Such a method is important because scour assessments are needed to identify scour-critical bridges throughout the United States. Using detailed scour-analysis methods and scour-prediction equations recommended by the Federal Highway Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation, obtained contraction, pier, and abutment scour-depth data for sites from 10 States.The data were used to develop relations between scour depth and hydraulic variables that can be rapidly measured in the field. Relations between scour depth and hydraulic variables, in the form of envelope curves, were based on simpler forms of detailed scour-prediction equations. To apply the rapid-estimation method, a 100-year recurrence interval peak discharge is determined, and bridge- length data are used in the field with graphs relating unit discharge to velocity and velocity to bridge backwater as a basis for estimating flow depths and other hydraulic variables that can then be applied using the envelope curves. The method was tested in the field. Results showed good agreement among individuals involved and with results from more-detailed methods. Although useful for identifying potentially scour-critical bridges, themethod does not replace more-detailed methods used for design purposes. Use of the rapid- estimation method should be limited to individuals having experience in bridge scour, hydraulics, and flood hydrology, and some training in use of the method.

  12. Are rapid population estimates accurate? A field trial of two different assessment methods.

    PubMed

    Grais, Rebecca F; Coulombier, Denis; Ampuero, Julia; Lucas, Marcelino E S; Barretto, Avertino T; Jacquier, Guy; Diaz, Francisco; Balandine, Serge; Mahoudeau, Claude; Brown, Vincent

    2006-09-01

    Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning.

  13. Comprehensive tire-road friction coefficient estimation based on signal fusion method under complex maneuvering operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, L.; Yang, K.; Jia, G.; Ran, X.; Song, J.; Han, Z.-Q.

    2015-05-01

    The accurate estimation of the tire-road friction coefficient plays a significant role in the vehicle dynamics control. The estimation method should be timely and reliable for the controlling requirements, which means the contact friction characteristics between the tire and the road should be recognized before the interference to ensure the safety of the driver and passengers from drifting and losing control. In addition, the estimation method should be stable and feasible for complex maneuvering operations to guarantee the control performance as well. A signal fusion method combining the available signals to estimate the road friction is suggested in this paper on the basis of the estimated ones of braking, driving and steering conditions individually. Through the input characteristics and the states of the vehicle and tires from sensors the maneuvering condition may be recognized, by which the certainty factors of the friction of the three conditions mentioned above may be obtained correspondingly, and then the comprehensive road friction may be calculated. Experimental vehicle tests validate the effectiveness of the proposed method through complex maneuvering operations; the estimated road friction coefficient based on the signal fusion method is relatively timely and accurate to satisfy the control demands.

  14. A sparse reconstruction method for the estimation of multiresolution emission fields via atmospheric inversion

    DOE PAGES

    Ray, J.; Lee, J.; Yadav, V.; ...

    2014-08-20

    We present a sparse reconstruction scheme that can also be used to ensure non-negativity when fitting wavelet-based random field models to limited observations in non-rectangular geometries. The method is relevant when multiresolution fields are estimated using linear inverse problems. Examples include the estimation of emission fields for many anthropogenic pollutants using atmospheric inversion or hydraulic conductivity in aquifers from flow measurements. The scheme is based on three new developments. Firstly, we extend an existing sparse reconstruction method, Stagewise Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (StOMP), to incorporate prior information on the target field. Secondly, we develop an iterative method that uses StOMP tomore » impose non-negativity on the estimated field. Finally, we devise a method, based on compressive sensing, to limit the estimated field within an irregularly shaped domain. We demonstrate the method on the estimation of fossil-fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2) emissions in the lower 48 states of the US. The application uses a recently developed multiresolution random field model and synthetic observations of ffCO 2 concentrations from a limited set of measurement sites. We find that our method for limiting the estimated field within an irregularly shaped region is about a factor of 10 faster than conventional approaches. It also reduces the overall computational cost by a factor of two. Further, the sparse reconstruction scheme imposes non-negativity without introducing strong nonlinearities, such as those introduced by employing log-transformed fields, and thus reaps the benefits of simplicity and computational speed that are characteristic of linear inverse problems.« less

  15. Evaluation and comparison of methods to estimate irrigation withdrawal for the National Water Census Focus Area Study of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in southwestern Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Painter, Jaime A.; Torak, Lynn J.; Jones, John W.

    2015-09-30

    Methods to estimate irrigation withdrawal using nationally available datasets and techniques that are transferable to other agricultural regions were evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin focus area study of the National Water Census (ACF–FAS). These methods investigated the spatial, temporal, and quantitative distributions of water withdrawal for irrigation in the southwestern Georgia region of the ACF–FAS, filling a vital need to inform science-based decisions regarding resource management and conservation. The crop– demand method assumed that only enough water is pumped onto a crop to satisfy the deficit between evapotranspiration and precipitation. A second method applied a geostatistical regimen of variography and conditional simulation to monthly metered irrigation withdrawal to estimate irrigation withdrawal where data do not exist. A third method analyzed Landsat satellite imagery using an automated approach to generate monthly estimates of irrigated lands. These methods were evaluated independently and compared collectively with measured water withdrawal information available in the Georgia part of the ACF–FAS, principally in the Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. An assessment of each method’s contribution to the National Water Census program was also made to identify transfer value of the methods to the national program and other water census studies. None of the three methods evaluated represent a turnkey process to estimate irrigation withdrawal on any spatial (local or regional) or temporal (monthly or annual) extent. Each method requires additional information on agricultural practices during the growing season to complete the withdrawal estimation process. Spatial and temporal limitations inherent in identifying irrigated acres during the growing season, and in designing spatially and temporally representative monitor (meter) networks, can belie the ability of the methods to

  16. Methods to Estimate the Variance of Some Indices of the Signal Detection Theory: A Simulation Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suero, Manuel; Privado, Jesús; Botella, Juan

    2017-01-01

    A simulation study is presented to evaluate and compare three methods to estimate the variance of the estimates of the parameters d and "C" of the signal detection theory (SDT). Several methods have been proposed to calculate the variance of their estimators, "d'" and "c." Those methods have been mostly assessed by…

  17. Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

    PubMed

    Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

    2017-09-14

    While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

  18. Tumor response estimation in radar-based microwave breast cancer detection.

    PubMed

    Kurrant, Douglas J; Fear, Elise C; Westwick, David T

    2008-12-01

    Radar-based microwave imaging techniques have been proposed for early stage breast cancer detection. A considerable challenge for the successful implementation of these techniques is the reduction of clutter, or components of the signal originating from objects other than the tumor. In particular, the reduction of clutter from the late-time scattered fields is required in order to detect small (subcentimeter diameter) tumors. In this paper, a method to estimate the tumor response contained in the late-time scattered fields is presented. The method uses a parametric function to model the tumor response. A maximum a posteriori estimation approach is used to evaluate the optimal values for the estimates of the parameters. A pattern classification technique is then used to validate the estimation. The ability of the algorithm to estimate a tumor response is demonstrated by using both experimental and simulated data obtained with a tissue sensing adaptive radar system.

  19. Comparison of Recharge Estimation Methods During a Wet Period in a Karst Aquifer.

    PubMed

    Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Martos-Rosillo, Sergio; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Durán Valsero, Juan José; Pedrera, Antonio; Jiménez-Gavilán, Pablo; Liñán Baena, Cristina

    2015-01-01

    Management of water resources, implying their appropriate protection, calls for a sound evaluation of recharge. Such assessment is very complex in karst aquifers. Most methods are developed for application to detrital aquifers, without taking into account the extraordinary heterogeneity of porosity and permeability of karst systems. It is commonly recommended to estimate recharge using multiple methods; however, differences inherent to the diverse methods make it difficult to clarify the accuracy of each result. In this study, recharge was estimated in a karst aquifer working in a natural regime, in a Mediterranean-type climate, in the western part of the Sierra de las Nieves (southern Spain). Mediterranean climate regions are characterized by high inter-annual rainfall variability featuring long dry periods and short intense wet periods, the latter constituting the most important contribution to aquifer water input. This paper aims to identify the methods that provide the most plausible range of recharge rate during wet periods. Six methods were tested: the classical method of Thornthwaite-Mather, the Visual Balan code, the chloride balance method, and spatially distributed methods such as APLIS, a novel spatiotemporal estimation of recharge, and ZOODRM. The results help determine valid methods for application in the rest of the unit of study and in similar karst aquifers. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

  20. A new method of SC image processing for confluence estimation.

    PubMed

    Soleimani, Sajjad; Mirzaei, Mohsen; Toncu, Dana-Cristina

    2017-10-01

    Stem cells images are a strong instrument in the estimation of confluency during their culturing for therapeutic processes. Various laboratory conditions, such as lighting, cell container support and image acquisition equipment, effect on the image quality, subsequently on the estimation efficiency. This paper describes an efficient image processing method for cell pattern recognition and morphological analysis of images that were affected by uneven background. The proposed algorithm for enhancing the image is based on coupling a novel image denoising method through BM3D filter with an adaptive thresholding technique for improving the uneven background. This algorithm works well to provide a faster, easier, and more reliable method than manual measurement for the confluency assessment of stem cell cultures. The present scheme proves to be valid for the prediction of the confluency and growth of stem cells at early stages for tissue engineering in reparatory clinical surgery. The method used in this paper is capable of processing the image of the cells, which have already contained various defects due to either personnel mishandling or microscope limitations. Therefore, it provides proper information even out of the worst original images available. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A simple method for estimating gross carbon budgets for vegetation in forest ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Ryan, Michael G.

    1991-01-01

    Gross carbon budgets for vegetation in forest ecosystems are difficult to construct because of problems in scaling flux measurements made on small samples over short periods of time and in determining belowground carbon allocation. Recently, empirical relationships have been developed to estimate total belowground carbon allocation from litterfall, and maintenance respiration from tissue nitrogen content. I outline a method for estimating gross carbon budgets using these empirical relationships together with data readily available from ecosystem studies (aboveground wood and canopy production, aboveground wood and canopy biomass, litterfall, and tissue nitrogen contents). Estimates generated with this method are compared with annual carbon fixation estimates from the Forest-BGC model for a lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) and a Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis Dougl.) chronosequence.

  2. On the Estimation of Standard Errors in Cognitive Diagnosis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Philipp, Michel; Strobl, Carolin; de la Torre, Jimmy; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are an increasingly popular method to assess mastery or nonmastery of a set of fine-grained abilities in educational or psychological assessments. Several inference techniques are available to quantify the uncertainty of model parameter estimates, to compare different versions of CDMs, or to check model…

  3. A modified micrometeorological gradient method for estimating O3 dry depositions over a forest canopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Z. Y.; Zhang, L.; Wang, X. M.; Munger, J. W.

    2015-07-01

    Small pollutant concentration gradients between levels above a plant canopy result in large uncertainties in estimated air-surface exchange fluxes when using existing micrometeorological gradient methods, including the aerodynamic gradient method (AGM) and the modified Bowen ratio method (MBR). A modified micrometeorological gradient method (MGM) is proposed in this study for estimating O3 dry deposition fluxes over a forest canopy using concentration gradients between a level above and a level below the canopy top, taking advantage of relatively large gradients between these levels due to significant pollutant uptake in the top layers of the canopy. The new method is compared with the AGM and MBR methods and is also evaluated using eddy-covariance (EC) flux measurements collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site, Massachusetts, during 1993-2000. All three gradient methods (AGM, MBR, and MGM) produced similar diurnal cycles of O3 dry deposition velocity (Vd(O3)) to the EC measurements, with the MGM method being the closest in magnitude to the EC measurements. The multi-year average Vd(O3) differed significantly between these methods, with the AGM, MBR, and MGM method being 2.28, 1.45, and 1.18 times that of the EC, respectively. Sensitivity experiments identified several input parameters for the MGM method as first-order parameters that affect the estimated Vd(O3). A 10% uncertainty in the wind speed attenuation coefficient or canopy displacement height can cause about 10% uncertainty in the estimated Vd(O3). An unrealistic leaf area density vertical profile can cause an uncertainty of a factor of 2.0 in the estimated Vd(O3). Other input parameters or formulas for stability functions only caused an uncertainly of a few percent. The new method provides an alternative approach to monitoring/estimating long-term deposition fluxes of similar pollutants over tall canopies.

  4. The precision of mapping between number words and the approximate number system predicts children's formal math abilities.

    PubMed

    Libertus, Melissa E; Odic, Darko; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

    2016-10-01

    Children can represent number in at least two ways: by using their non-verbal, intuitive approximate number system (ANS) and by using words and symbols to count and represent numbers exactly. Furthermore, by the time they are 5years old, children can map between the ANS and number words, as evidenced by their ability to verbally estimate numbers of items without counting. How does the quality of the mapping between approximate and exact numbers relate to children's math abilities? The role of the ANS-number word mapping in math competence remains controversial for at least two reasons. First, previous work has not examined the relation between verbal estimation and distinct subtypes of math abilities. Second, previous work has not addressed how distinct components of verbal estimation-mapping accuracy and variability-might each relate to math performance. Here, we addressed these gaps by measuring individual differences in ANS precision, verbal number estimation, and formal and informal math abilities in 5- to 7-year-old children. We found that verbal estimation variability, but not estimation accuracy, predicted formal math abilities, even when controlling for age, expressive vocabulary, and ANS precision, and that it mediated the link between ANS precision and overall math ability. These findings suggest that variability in the ANS-number word mapping may be especially important for formal math abilities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. An improved principal component analysis based region matching method for fringe direction estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, A.; Quan, C.

    2018-04-01

    The principal component analysis (PCA) and region matching combined method is effective for fringe direction estimation. However, its mask construction algorithm for region matching fails in some circumstances, and the algorithm for conversion of orientation to direction in mask areas is computationally-heavy and non-optimized. We propose an improved PCA based region matching method for the fringe direction estimation, which includes an improved and robust mask construction scheme, and a fast and optimized orientation-direction conversion algorithm for the mask areas. Along with the estimated fringe direction map, filtered fringe pattern by automatic selective reconstruction modification and enhanced fast empirical mode decomposition (ASRm-EFEMD) is used for Hilbert spiral transform (HST) to demodulate the phase. Subsequently, windowed Fourier ridge (WFR) method is used for the refinement of the phase. The robustness and effectiveness of proposed method are demonstrated by both simulated and experimental fringe patterns.

  6. Scanning linear estimation: improvements over region of interest (ROI) methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kupinski, Meredith K.; Clarkson, Eric W.; Barrett, Harrison H.

    2013-03-01

    In tomographic medical imaging, a signal activity is typically estimated by summing voxels from a reconstructed image. We introduce an alternative estimation scheme that operates on the raw projection data and offers a substantial improvement, as measured by the ensemble mean-square error (EMSE), when compared to using voxel values from a maximum-likelihood expectation-maximization (MLEM) reconstruction. The scanning-linear (SL) estimator operates on the raw projection data and is derived as a special case of maximum-likelihood estimation with a series of approximations to make the calculation tractable. The approximated likelihood accounts for background randomness, measurement noise and variability in the parameters to be estimated. When signal size and location are known, the SL estimate of signal activity is unbiased, i.e. the average estimate equals the true value. By contrast, unpredictable bias arising from the null functions of the imaging system affect standard algorithms that operate on reconstructed data. The SL method is demonstrated for two different tasks: (1) simultaneously estimating a signal’s size, location and activity; (2) for a fixed signal size and location, estimating activity. Noisy projection data are realistically simulated using measured calibration data from the multi-module multi-resolution small-animal SPECT imaging system. For both tasks, the same set of images is reconstructed using the MLEM algorithm (80 iterations), and the average and maximum values within the region of interest (ROI) are calculated for comparison. This comparison shows dramatic improvements in EMSE for the SL estimates. To show that the bias in ROI estimates affects not only absolute values but also relative differences, such as those used to monitor the response to therapy, the activity estimation task is repeated for three different signal sizes.

  7. [Measurement and estimation methods and research progress of snow evaporation in forests].

    PubMed

    Li, Hui-Dong; Guan, De-Xin; Jin, Chang-Jie; Wang, An-Zhi; Yuan, Feng-Hui; Wu, Jia-Bing

    2013-12-01

    Accurate measurement and estimation of snow evaporation (sublimation) in forests is one of the important issues to the understanding of snow surface energy and water balance, and it is also an essential part of regional hydrological and climate models. This paper summarized the measurement and estimation methods of snow evaporation in forests, and made a comprehensive applicability evaluation, including mass-balance methods (snow water equivalent method, comparative measurements of snowfall and through-snowfall, snow evaporation pan, lysimeter, weighing of cut tree, weighing interception on crown, and gamma-ray attenuation technique) and micrometeorological methods (Bowen-ratio energy-balance method, Penman combination equation, aerodynamics method, surface temperature technique and eddy covariance method). Also this paper reviewed the progress of snow evaporation in different forests and its influencal factors. At last, combining the deficiency of past research, an outlook for snow evaporation rearch in forests was presented, hoping to provide a reference for related research in the future.

  8. Methods for Estimating Kidney Disease Stage Transition Probabilities Using Electronic Medical Records

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Lola; Small, Dylan; Stewart, Walter F.; Roy, Jason A.

    2013-01-01

    Chronic diseases are often described by stages of severity. Clinical decisions about what to do are influenced by the stage, whether a patient is progressing, and the rate of progression. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), relatively little is known about the transition rates between stages. To address this, we used electronic health records (EHR) data on a large primary care population, which should have the advantage of having both sufficient follow-up time and sample size to reliably estimate transition rates for CKD. However, EHR data have some features that threaten the validity of any analysis. In particular, the timing and frequency of laboratory values and clinical measurements are not determined a priori by research investigators, but rather, depend on many factors, including the current health of the patient. We developed an approach for estimating CKD stage transition rates using hidden Markov models (HMMs), when the level of information and observation time vary among individuals. To estimate the HMMs in a computationally manageable way, we used a “discretization” method to transform daily data into intervals of 30 days, 90 days, or 180 days. We assessed the accuracy and computation time of this method via simulation studies. We also used simulations to study the effect of informative observation times on the estimated transition rates. Our simulation results showed good performance of the method, even when missing data are non-ignorable. We applied the methods to EHR data from over 60,000 primary care patients who have chronic kidney disease (stage 2 and above). We estimated transition rates between six underlying disease states. The results were similar for men and women. PMID:25848580

  9. Comparison of Methods for Estimating Low Flow Characteristics of Streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tasker, Gary D.

    1987-01-01

    Four methods for estimating the 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 20-year low flows for streams are compared by the bootstrap method. The bootstrap method is a Monte Carlo technique in which random samples are drawn from an unspecified sampling distribution defined from observed data. The nonparametric nature of the bootstrap makes it suitable for comparing methods based on a flow series for which the true distribution is unknown. Results show that the two methods based on hypothetical distribution (Log-Pearson III and Weibull) had lower mean square errors than did the G. E. P. Box-D. R. Cox transformation method or the Log-W. C. Boughton method which is based on a fit of plotting positions.

  10. iGLASS: An Improvement to the GLASS Method for Estimating Species Trees from Gene Trees

    PubMed Central

    Rosenberg, Noah A.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Several methods have been designed to infer species trees from gene trees while taking into account gene tree/species tree discordance. Although some of these methods provide consistent species tree topology estimates under a standard model, most either do not estimate branch lengths or are computationally slow. An exception, the GLASS method of Mossel and Roch, is consistent for the species tree topology, estimates branch lengths, and is computationally fast. However, GLASS systematically overestimates divergence times, leading to biased estimates of species tree branch lengths. By assuming a multispecies coalescent model in which multiple lineages are sampled from each of two taxa at L independent loci, we derive the distribution of the waiting time until the first interspecific coalescence occurs between the two taxa, considering all loci and measuring from the divergence time. We then use the mean of this distribution to derive a correction to the GLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times. We show that our improved estimator, which we call iGLASS, consistently estimates the divergence time between a pair of taxa as the number of loci approaches infinity, and that it is an unbiased estimator of divergence times when one lineage is sampled per taxon. We also show that many commonly used clustering methods can be combined with the iGLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times to produce a consistent estimator of the species tree topology. Through simulations, we show that iGLASS can greatly reduce the bias and mean squared error in obtaining estimates of divergence times in a species tree. PMID:22216756

  11. A Comparison of Normal and Elliptical Estimation Methods in Structural Equation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schumacker, Randall E.; Cheevatanarak, Suchittra

    Monte Carlo simulation compared chi-square statistics, parameter estimates, and root mean square error of approximation values using normal and elliptical estimation methods. Three research conditions were imposed on the simulated data: sample size, population contamination percent, and kurtosis. A Bentler-Weeks structural model established the…

  12. Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Analysis Using Global Positioning System Based Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Komjathy, Attila (Inventor); Mannucci, Anthony J. (Inventor); Sparks, Lawrence C. (Inventor)

    2017-01-01

    A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.

  13. Comparative Evaluation of Two Methods to Estimate Natural Gas Production in Texas

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This report describes an evaluation conducted by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in August 2003 of two methods that estimate natural gas production in Texas. The first method (parametric method) was used by EIA from February through August 2003 and the second method (multinomial method) replaced it starting in September 2003, based on the results of this evaluation.

  14. DRAINWAT--Based Methods For Estimating Nitrogen Transport in Poorly Drained Watersheds

    Treesearch

    Devendra M. Amatya; George M. Chescheir; Glenn P. Fernandez; R. Wayne Skaggs; J.W. Gilliam

    2004-01-01

    Methods are needed to quantify effects of land use and management practices on nutrient and sediment loads at the watershed scale. Two methods were used to apply a DRAINMOD-based watershed-scale model (DRAINWAT) to estimate total nitrogen (N) transport from a poorly drained, forested watershed. In both methods, in-stream retention or losses of N were calculated with a...

  15. Implementing the measurement interval midpoint method for change estimation

    Treesearch

    James A. Westfall; Thomas Frieswyk; Douglas M. Griffith

    2009-01-01

    The adoption of nationally consistent estimation procedures for the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program mandates changes in the methods used to develop resource trend information. Particularly, it is prescribed that changes in tree status occur at the midpoint of the measurement interval to minimize potential bias. The individual-tree characteristics requiring...

  16. A new radial strain and strain rate estimation method using autocorrelation for carotid artery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Jihui; Kim, Hoonmin; Park, Jongho; Yeo, Sunmi; Shim, Hwan; Lim, Hyungjoon; Yoo, Yangmo

    2014-03-01

    Atherosclerosis is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease. The early diagnosis of atherosclerosis is of clinical interest since it can prevent any adverse effects of atherosclerotic vascular diseases. In this paper, a new carotid artery radial strain estimation method based on autocorrelation is presented. In the proposed method, the strain is first estimated by the autocorrelation of two complex signals from the consecutive frames. Then, the angular phase from autocorrelation is converted to strain and strain rate and they are analyzed over time. In addition, a 2D strain image over region of interest in a carotid artery can be displayed. To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed radial strain estimation method, radiofrequency (RF) data of 408 frames in the carotid artery of a volunteer were acquired by a commercial ultrasound system equipped with a research package (V10, Samsung Medison, Korea) by using a L5-13IS linear array transducer. From in vivo carotid artery data, the mean strain estimate was -0.1372 while its minimum and maximum values were -2.961 and 0.909, respectively. Moreover, the overall strain estimates are highly correlated with the reconstructed M-mode trace. Similar results were obtained from the estimation of the strain rate change over time. These results indicate that the proposed carotid artery radial strain estimation method is useful for assessing the arterial wall's stiffness noninvasively without increasing the computational complexity.

  17. Using Finite Element Method to Estimate the Material Properties of a Bearing Cage

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2018-02-01

    UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED AD-E403 988 Technical Report ARMET-TR-17035 USING FINITE ELEMENT METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE MATERIAL...TITLE AND SUBTITLE USING FINITE ELEMENT METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE MATERIAL PROPERTIES OF A BEARING CAGE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT...specifications of non-metallic bearing cages are typically not supplied by the manufacturer. In order to setup a finite element analysis of a

  18. Parameters Estimation For A Patellofemoral Joint Of A Human Knee Using A Vector Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciszkiewicz, A.; Knapczyk, J.

    2015-08-01

    Position and displacement analysis of a spherical model of a human knee joint using the vector method was presented. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation were performed using the evolutionary algorithm method. Computer simulations for the mechanism with estimated parameters proved the effectiveness of the prepared software. The method itself can be useful when solving problems concerning the displacement and loads analysis in the knee joint.

  19. Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2018-03-01

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

  20. Comparison of anatomical, functional and regression methods for estimating the rotation axes of the forearm.

    PubMed

    Fraysse, François; Thewlis, Dominic

    2014-11-07

    Numerous methods exist to estimate the pose of the axes of rotation of the forearm. These include anatomical definitions, such as the conventions proposed by the ISB, and functional methods based on instantaneous helical axes, which are commonly accepted as the modelling gold standard for non-invasive, in-vivo studies. We investigated the validity of a third method, based on regression equations, to estimate the rotation axes of the forearm. We also assessed the accuracy of both ISB methods. Axes obtained from a functional method were considered as the reference. Results indicate a large inter-subject variability in the axes positions, in accordance with previous studies. Both ISB methods gave the same level of accuracy in axes position estimations. Regression equations seem to improve estimation of the flexion-extension axis but not the pronation-supination axis. Overall, given the large inter-subject variability, the use of regression equations cannot be recommended. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.