Sample records for abnormal stock returns

  1. Which stocks are profitable? A network method to investigate the effects of network structure on stock returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kun; Luo, Peng; Sun, Bianxia; Wang, Huaiqing

    2015-10-01

    According to asset pricing theory, a stock's expected returns are determined by its exposure to systematic risk. In this paper, we propose a new method for analyzing the interaction effects among industries and stocks on stock returns. We construct a complex network based on correlations of abnormal stock returns and use centrality and modularity, two popular measures in social science, to determine the effect of interconnections on industry and stock returns. Supported by previous studies, our findings indicate that a relationship exists between inter-industry closeness and industry returns and between stock centrality and stock returns. The theoretical and practical contributions of these findings are discussed.

  2. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

    PubMed Central

    Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known “event study” from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the “event study” methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1–2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events. PMID:26390434

  3. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.

    PubMed

    Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events.

  4. Stock market returns and clinical trial results of investigational compounds: an event study analysis of large biopharmaceutical companies.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Thomas J

    2013-01-01

    For biopharmaceutical companies, investments in research and development are risky, and the results from clinical trials are key inflection points in the process. Few studies have explored how and to what extent the public equity market values clinical trial results. Our study dataset matched announcements of clinical trial results for investigational compounds from January 2011 to May 2013 with daily stock market returns of large United States-listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Event study methodology was used to examine the relationship between clinical research events and changes in stock returns. We identified public announcements for clinical trials of 24 investigational compounds, including 16 (67%) positive and 8 (33%) negative events. The majority of announcements were for Phase 3 clinical trials (N = 13, 54%), and for oncologic (N = 7, 29%) and neurologic (N = 6, 24%) indications. The median cumulative abnormal returns on the day of the announcement were 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.3, 13.4%; P = 0.02) for positive events and -2.0% (95% CI: -9.1, 0.7%; P = 0.04) for negative events, with statistically significant differences from zero. In the day immediately following the announcement, firms with positive events were associated with stock price corrections, with median cumulative abnormal returns falling to 0.4% (95% CI: -3.8, 12.3%; P = 0.33). For firms with negative announcements, the median cumulative abnormal returns were -1.7% (95% CI: -9.5, 1.0%; P = 0.03), and remained significantly negative over the two day event window. The magnitude of abnormal returns did not differ statistically by indication, by trial phase, or between biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms. The release of clinical trial results is an economically significant event and has meaningful effects on market value for large biopharmaceutical companies. Stock return underperformance due to negative events is greater in magnitude and persists longer than

  5. Stock Market Returns and Clinical Trial Results of Investigational Compounds: An Event Study Analysis of Large Biopharmaceutical Companies

    PubMed Central

    Hwang, Thomas J.

    2013-01-01

    Background For biopharmaceutical companies, investments in research and development are risky, and the results from clinical trials are key inflection points in the process. Few studies have explored how and to what extent the public equity market values clinical trial results. Methods Our study dataset matched announcements of clinical trial results for investigational compounds from January 2011 to May 2013 with daily stock market returns of large United States-listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Event study methodology was used to examine the relationship between clinical research events and changes in stock returns. Results We identified public announcements for clinical trials of 24 investigational compounds, including 16 (67%) positive and 8 (33%) negative events. The majority of announcements were for Phase 3 clinical trials (N = 13, 54%), and for oncologic (N = 7, 29%) and neurologic (N = 6, 24%) indications. The median cumulative abnormal returns on the day of the announcement were 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: –2.3, 13.4%; P = 0.02) for positive events and –2.0% (95% CI: –9.1, 0.7%; P = 0.04) for negative events, with statistically significant differences from zero. In the day immediately following the announcement, firms with positive events were associated with stock price corrections, with median cumulative abnormal returns falling to 0.4% (95% CI: –3.8, 12.3%; P = 0.33). For firms with negative announcements, the median cumulative abnormal returns were –1.7% (95% CI: –9.5, 1.0%; P = 0.03), and remained significantly negative over the two day event window. The magnitude of abnormal returns did not differ statistically by indication, by trial phase, or between biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms. Conclusions The release of clinical trial results is an economically significant event and has meaningful effects on market value for large biopharmaceutical companies. Stock return

  6. Model for non-Gaussian intraday stock returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerig, Austin; Vicente, Javier; Fuentes, Miguel A.

    2009-12-01

    Stock prices are known to exhibit non-Gaussian dynamics, and there is much interest in understanding the origin of this behavior. Here, we present a model that explains the shape and scaling of the distribution of intraday stock price fluctuations (called intraday returns) and verify the model using a large database for several stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange. We provide evidence that the return distribution for these stocks is non-Gaussian and similar in shape and that the distribution appears stable over intraday time scales. We explain these results by assuming the volatility of returns is constant intraday but varies over longer periods such that its inverse square follows a gamma distribution. This produces returns that are Student distributed for intraday time scales. The predicted results show excellent agreement with the data for all stocks in our study and over all regions of the return distribution.

  7. The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns.

    PubMed

    Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Rowland, Racquel

    2016-01-01

    During the latest episode of general election held in Malaysia, it is observed that the FBMKLCI index was lifted 62.52 points in a day soon after the announcement of election outcome. Moreover, the index registered a highest gain of 96.29 points in the middle of the intra-day trade. This suggests that investors who had got the right direction could make profitable intra-day trading the next trading day of the general election date. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant before-election-effect and after-election-effect from the most recent general elections held in Malaysia. Different subsets of macroeconomic variables are found to have significant role on stock market return depending on the market situation. Remarkably, when there was close fight between the two major political parties during the 2008 and 2013 election years, political uncertainty showed up its negative and significant role in influencing the stock market return. The major implication of these findings is that while investors may seek abnormal returns before and after the next general election, which is around the corner, they will have to pay attention on the influence of macroeconomic variables and political uncertainty on stock market return during the election year.

  8. Capital Structure and Stock Returns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welch, Ivo

    2004-01-01

    U.S. corporations do not issue and repurchase debt and equity to counteract the mechanistic effects of stock returns on their debt-equity ratios. Thus over one- to five-year horizons, stock returns can explain about 40 percent of debt ratio dynamics. Although corporate net issuing activity is lively and although it can explain 60 percent of debt…

  9. The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2013-03-01

    The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

  10. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter’s variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market. PMID:28672026

  11. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  12. Multifractal analysis of Moroccan family business stock returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, long-range temporal correlations at different scales in Moroccan family business stock returns are investigated. For comparison purpose, presence of multifractality is also investigated in Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) major indices: MASI which is the all shares index and MADEX which is the index of most liquid shares. It is found that return series of both family business companies and major stock market indices show strong evidence of multifractality. In particular, empirical results reveal that short (long) fluctuations in family business stock returns are less (more) persistent (anti-persistent) than short fluctuations in market indices. In addition, both serial correlation and distribution characteristics significantly influence the strength of the multifractal spectrums of CSE and family business stocks returns. Furthermore, results from multifractal spectrum analysis suggest that family business stocks are less risky. Thus, such differences in price dynamics could be exploited by investors and forecasters in active portfolio management.

  13. Tick size and stock returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Töyli, Juuso; Kaski, Kimmo

    2009-02-01

    Tick size is an important aspect of the micro-structural level organization of financial markets. It is the smallest institutionally allowed price increment, has a direct bearing on the bid-ask spread, influences the strategy of trading order placement in electronic markets, affects the price formation mechanism, and appears to be related to the long-term memory of volatility clustering. In this paper we investigate the impact of tick size on stock returns. We start with a simple simulation to demonstrate how continuous returns become distorted after confining the price to a discrete grid governed by the tick size. We then move on to a novel experimental set-up that combines decimalization pilot programs and cross-listed stocks in New York and Toronto. This allows us to observe a set of stocks traded simultaneously under two different ticks while holding all security-specific characteristics fixed. We then study the normality of the return distributions and carry out fits to the chosen distribution models. Our empirical findings are somewhat mixed and in some cases appear to challenge the simulation results.

  14. What stock market returns to expect for the future?

    PubMed

    Diamond, P A

    2000-01-01

    In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant

  15. Daily happiness and stock returns: Some international evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wei; Li, Xiao; Shen, Dehua; Teglio, Andrea

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we examine the relations between the daily happiness sentiment extracted from Twitter and the stock market performance in 11 international stock markets. By partitioning this happiness sentiment into quintiles from the least to the happiest days, we first show that the contemporary correlation coefficients between happiness sentiment and index return in the 4 and most-happiness subgroups are higher than that in least, 2 and 3-happiness subgroups. Secondly, the happiness sentiment can provide additional explanatory power for index return in the most-happiness subgroup. Thirdly, the daily happiness can granger-cause the changes in index return for the majority of stock markets. Fourthly, we find that the index return and the range-based volatility of the most-happiness subgroup are larger than those of other subgroups. These results highlight the important role of social media in stock market.

  16. A wave function for stock market returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ataullah, Ali; Davidson, Ian; Tippett, Mark

    2009-02-01

    The instantaneous return on the Financial Times-Stock Exchange (FTSE) All Share Index is viewed as a frictionless particle moving in a one-dimensional square well but where there is a non-trivial probability of the particle tunneling into the well’s retaining walls. Our analysis demonstrates how the complementarity principle from quantum mechanics applies to stock market prices and of how the wave function presented by it leads to a probability density which exhibits strong compatibility with returns earned on the FTSE All Share Index. In particular, our analysis shows that the probability density for stock market returns is highly leptokurtic with slight (though not significant) negative skewness. Moreover, the moments of the probability density determined under the complementarity principle employed here are all convergent - in contrast to many of the probability density functions on which the received theory of finance is based.

  17. The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

    2017-03-01

    The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

  18. Dynamic structure of stock communities: a comparative study between stock returns and turnover rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Li-Ling; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhong, Li-Xin; Ren, Fei

    2017-07-01

    The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the aspects of both price returns and turnover rates, by using a combination of the PMFG and infomap methods based on a distance matrix. An empirical study using the overall data set shows that for both returns and turnover rates the largest communities are composed of specific industrial or conceptional sectors and the correlation inside a sector is generally larger than the correlation between different sectors. However, the community structure for turnover rates is more complex than that for returns, which indicates that the interactions between stocks revealed by turnover rates may contain more information. This conclusion is further confirmed by the analysis of the changes in the dynamics of community structures over five sub-periods. Sectors like banks, real estate, health care and New Shanghai take turns to comprise a few of the largest communities in different sub-periods, and more interestingly several specific sectors appear in the communities with different rank orders for returns and turnover rates even in the same sub-period. To better understand their differences, a comparison between the evolution of the returns and turnover rates of the stocks from these sectors is conducted. We find that stock prices only had large changes around important events while turnover rates surged after each of these events relevant to specific sectors, which shows strong evidence that the turnover rates are more susceptible to exogenous shocks than returns and its measurement for community detection may contain more useful information about market structure.

  19. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics. PMID:29190652

  20. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly.

    PubMed

    Blau, Benjamin M; Whitby, Ryan J

    2017-01-01

    One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics.

  1. Revisiting the investor sentiment-stock returns relationship: A multi-scale perspective using wavelets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lao, Jiashun; Nie, He; Jiang, Yonghong

    2018-06-01

    This paper employs SBW proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) to investigate the nonlinear asymmetric Granger causality between investor sentiment and stock returns for US economy while considering different time-scales. The wavelet method is utilized to decompose time series of investor sentiment and stock returns at different time-scales to focus on the local analysis of different time horizons of investors. The linear and nonlinear asymmetric Granger methods are employed to examine the Granger causal relationship on similar time-scales. We find evidence of strong bilateral linear and nonlinear asymmetric Granger causality between longer-term investor sentiment and stock returns. Furthermore, we observe the positive nonlinear causal relationship from stock returns to investor sentiment and the negative nonlinear causal relationship from investor sentiment to stock returns.

  2. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  3. On fractality and chaos in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine existence of fractality and chaos in returns and volatilities of family business companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco, and also in returns and volatility of the CSE market index. Detrended fluctuation analysis based Hurst exponent and fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model are used to quantify fractality in returns and volatility time series respectively. Besides, the largest Lyapunov exponent is employed to quantify chaos in both time series. The empirical results from sixteen family business companies follow. For return series, fractality analysis show that most of family business returns listed on CSE exhibit anti-persistent dynamics, whilst market returns have persistent dynamics. Besides, chaos tests show that business family stock returns are not chaotic while market returns exhibit evidence of chaotic behaviour. For volatility series, fractality analysis shows that most of family business stocks and market index exhibit long memory in volatility. Furthermore, results from chaos tests show that volatility of family business returns is not chaotic, whilst volatility of market index is chaotic. These results may help understanding irregularities patterns in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility, and how they are different from market dynamics.

  4. Can Network Linkage Effects Determine Return? Evidence from Chinese Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Haishu; Xia, Yue; Li, Ying

    2016-01-01

    This study used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) method to identify the linkage effects of Chinese stock market, and further detected the influence of network linkage effects on magnitude of security returns across different industries. Applying two physics-derived techniques, the minimum spanning tree and the hierarchical tree, we analyzed the stock interdependence within the network of the China Securities Index (CSI) industry index basket. We observed that that obvious linkage effects existed among stock networks. CII and CCE, CAG and ITH as well as COU, CHA and REI were confirmed as the core nodes in the three different networks respectively. We also investigated the stability of linkage effects by estimating the mean correlations and mean distances, as well as the normalized tree length of these indices. In addition, using the GMM model approach, we found inter-node influence within the stock network had a pronounced effect on stock returns. Our results generally suggested that there appeared to be greater clustering effect among the indexes belonging to related industrial sectors than those of diverse sectors, and network comovement was significantly affected by impactive financial events in the reality. Besides, stocks that were more central within the network of stock market usually had higher returns for compensation because they endured greater exposure to correlation risk.

  5. The Tail Exponent for Stock Returns in Bursa Malaysia for 2003-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusli, N. H.; Gopir, G.; Usang, M. D.

    2010-07-01

    A developed discipline of econophysics that has been introduced is exhibiting the application of mathematical tools that are usually applied to the physical models for the study of financial models. In this study, an analysis of the time series behavior of several blue chip and penny stock companies in Main Market of Bursa Malaysia has been performed. Generally, the basic quantity being used is the relative price changes or is called the stock price returns, contains daily-sampled data from the beginning of 2003 until the end of 2008, containing 1555 trading days recorded. The aim of this paper is to investigate the tail exponent in tails of the distribution for blue chip stocks and penny stocks financial returns in six years period. By using a standard regression method, it is found that the distribution performed double scaling on the log-log plot of the cumulative probability of the normalized returns. Thus we calculate α for a small scale return as well as large scale return. Based on the result obtained, it is found that the power-law behavior for the probability density functions of the stock price absolute returns P(z)˜z-α with values lying inside and outside the Lévy stable regime with values α>2. All the results were discussed in detail.

  6. Sign realized jump risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China's stock market.

    PubMed

    Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun

    2017-01-01

    Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk.

  7. Essays on the effects of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alsalman, Zeina N.

    This research investigates the effect of changes in oil prices and oil price volatility on the U.S. stock returns. The first essay tests whether the sign and the size of oil price shocks matter for the U.S. stock returns. The results suggest a linear model provides a good approximation to the response of real stock returns to real oil price innovations. However, this is not the case when the model is specified in terms of the nominal price of crude oil. Using a modified structural VAR to accommodate GARCH-in-Mean errors, the second essay studies the direct effects of oil price uncertainty on the U.S. stock returns at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We also simulate the response of U.S. stock returns to positive and negative oil price shocks, to examine whether the responses to positive and negative shocks are symmetric. Estimation results suggest that there is no statistically significant effect of oil price volatility on the U.S. stock returns. Moreover, the impulse responses indicate that oil price increases and decreases have symmetric effects on the U.S. stock returns. Using high frequency data, the third essay addresses the issue of uncertainty in oil prices and its effect on U.S. stock returns, taking into account the day of the week effect. The results suggest that the-day-of-the-week effect is present in both the mean and volatility equations. The results also show that the U.S. stock market is sensitive to oil price variations not only at the aggregate level but also across some industries, such as chemicals, entertainment, and retail, where uncertainty in oil prices proves to have positive and statistically significant effect.

  8. The time-varying correlation between policy uncertainty and stock returns: Evidence from China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Xiong; Bian, Yuxiang; Shen, Dehua

    2018-06-01

    In this paper, we use a new policy uncertainty index to investigate the time-varying correlation between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and Chinese stock market returns. The correlation is examined in the period from January 1995 to December 2016. We show that absolute changes in EPU have a significant impact on stock market returns. Specifically, empirical results based on the DCC-GARCH model reveal that the correlation between EPU and stock returns has large fluctuations, especially during a financial crisis; in addition, the impact of EPU on the Shanghai stock market is greater than on the Shenzhen stock market. Robustness results reveal that the impact of EPU on state-owned enterprises is larger than on non-state enterprises. All of these results highlight the important role of EPU in the Chinese stock market, and shed light on such issues for future research.

  9. Rational GARCH model: An empirical test for stock returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2017-05-01

    We propose a new ARCH-type model that uses a rational function to capture the asymmetric response of volatility to returns, known as the "leverage effect". Using 10 individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and two stock indices, we compare the new model with several other asymmetric ARCH-type models. We find that according to the deviance information criterion, the new model ranks first for several stocks. Results show that the proposed new model can be used as an alternative asymmetric ARCH-type model in empirical applications.

  10. Can Network Linkage Effects Determine Return? Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Qiao, Haishu; Xia, Yue; Li, Ying

    2016-01-01

    This study used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) method to identify the linkage effects of Chinese stock market, and further detected the influence of network linkage effects on magnitude of security returns across different industries. Applying two physics-derived techniques, the minimum spanning tree and the hierarchical tree, we analyzed the stock interdependence within the network of the China Securities Index (CSI) industry index basket. We observed that that obvious linkage effects existed among stock networks. CII and CCE, CAG and ITH as well as COU, CHA and REI were confirmed as the core nodes in the three different networks respectively. We also investigated the stability of linkage effects by estimating the mean correlations and mean distances, as well as the normalized tree length of these indices. In addition, using the GMM model approach, we found inter-node influence within the stock network had a pronounced effect on stock returns. Our results generally suggested that there appeared to be greater clustering effect among the indexes belonging to related industrial sectors than those of diverse sectors, and network comovement was significantly affected by impactive financial events in the reality. Besides, stocks that were more central within the network of stock market usually had higher returns for compensation because they endured greater exposure to correlation risk. PMID:27257816

  11. Sign realized jump risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China's stock market

    PubMed Central

    Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun

    2017-01-01

    Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk. PMID:28771514

  12. Modeling stock return distributions with a quantum harmonic oscillator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, K.; Choi, M. Y.; Dai, B.; Sohn, S.; Yang, B.

    2017-11-01

    We propose a quantum harmonic oscillator as a model for the market force which draws a stock return from short-run fluctuations to the long-run equilibrium. The stochastic equation governing our model is transformed into a Schrödinger equation, the solution of which features “quantized” eigenfunctions. Consequently, stock returns follow a mixed χ distribution, which describes Gaussian and non-Gaussian features. Analyzing the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) All Share Index, we demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional stochastic process models, e.g., the geometric Brownian motion and the Heston model, with smaller fitting errors and better goodness-of-fit statistics. In addition, making use of analogy, we provide an economic rationale of the physics concepts such as the eigenstate, eigenenergy, and angular frequency, which sheds light on the relationship between finance and econophysics literature.

  13. Tests of nonuniversality of the stock return distributions in an emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, Guo-Hua; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-12-01

    There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets in the sense that they do not depend on stock market, industry sector, and market capitalization. We investigate the distributions of intraday returns at different time scales ( Δt=1 , 5, 15, and 30 min) of all the A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock market, which is the largest emerging market in the world. We find that the returns can be well fitted by the q -Gaussian distribution and the tails have power-law relaxations with the exponents increasing with Δt and being well outside the Lévy stable regime for individual stocks. We provide statistically significant evidence showing that, at small time scales Δt<15min , the exponents logarithmically decrease with the turnover rate and increase with the market capitalization. When Δt>15min , no conclusive evidence is found for a possible dependence of the tail exponent on the turnover rate or the market capitalization. Our findings indicate that the intraday return distributions at small time scales are not universal in emerging stock markets but might be universal at large time scales.

  14. Is Log Ratio a Good Value for Measuring Return in Stock Investments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ultsch, Alfred

    Measuring the rate of return is an important issue for theory and practice of investments in the stock market. A common measure for rate of return is the logarithm of the ratio of successive prices (LogRatio). In this paper it is shown that LogRatio as well as arithmetic return rate (Ratio) have several disadvantages. As an alternative relative differences (RelDiff) are proposed to measure return. The stability against numerical and rounding errors of RelDiff is much better than for LogRatios and Ratio). RelDiff values are identical to LogRatios and Return for small absolutes. The usage of RelDiff maps returns to a finite range. For most subsequent analyses this is a big advantage. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on daily return rates of a large set of actual stocks. It is shown that returns can be modeled with a very simple mixture of distributions in great precision using Relative differences.

  15. Dynamics of bid-ask spread return and volatility of the Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Tian; Chen, Guang; Zhong, Li-Xin; Wu, Xiao-Run

    2012-04-01

    The bid-ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation function and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), we find that the spread return is the lack of long-range memory, while the spread volatility is long-range time correlated. Besides, the spread volatilities of different stocks present long-range cross-correlations. Moreover, by applying the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA), the spread return is observed to possess a strong multifractality, which is similar to the dynamics of a variety of financial quantities. Different from the spread return, the spread volatility exhibits a weak multifractal nature.

  16. Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

    PubMed

    Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

  17. Randomness in denoised stock returns: The case of Moroccan family business companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we scrutinize entropy in family business stocks listed on Casablanca stock exchange and market index to assess randomness in their returns. For this purpose, we adopt a novel approach based on combination of stationary wavelet transform and Tsallis entropy for empirical analysis of the return series. The obtained empirical results show strong evidence that their respective entropy functions are characterized by opposite dynamics. Indeed, the information contents of their respective dynamics are statistically and significantly different. Obviously, information on regular events carried by family business returns is more certain, whilst that carried by market returns is uncertain. Such results are definitively useful to understand the nonlinear dynamics on returns on family business companies and those of the market. Without a doubt, they could be helpful for quantitative portfolio managers and investors.

  18. Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets

    PubMed Central

    Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales. PMID:26327593

  19. The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2016-11-01

    The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

  20. Investor sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from provincial TV audience rating in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongjie; Zhang, Yuzhao; Shen, Dehua; Zhang, Wei

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we advocate the provincial TV audience rating as the novel proxy for the provincial investor sentiment (PIS) and investigate its relation with stock returns. The empirical results firstly show that the PIS is positively related to stock returns. Secondly, we provide direct evidence on the existence of home bias in China by observing that the provincial correlation coefficient is significantly larger than the cross-provincial correlation coefficient. Finally, the PIS can explain a large proportion of provincial comovement. To sum up, all these findings support the role of the non-traditional information sources in understanding the ;anomalies; in stock market.

  1. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  2. Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

    2006-05-01

    In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

  3. Sector Identification in a Set of Stock Return Time Series Traded at the London Stock Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coronnello, C.; Tumminello, M.; Lillo, F.; Micciche, S.; Mantegna, R. N.

    2005-09-01

    We compare some methods recently used in the literature to detect the existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to a portfolio of stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange. The investigated time series are recorded both at a daily time horizon and at a 5-minute time horizon. The correlation coefficient matrix is very different at different time horizons confirming that more structured correlation coefficient matrices are observed for long time horizons. All the considered methods are able to detect economic information and the presence of clusters characterized by the economic sector of stocks. However, different methods present a different degree of sensitivity with respect to different sectors. Our comparative analysis suggests that the application of just a single method could not be able to extract all the economic information present in the correlation coefficient matrix of a stock portfolio.

  4. Statistical properties of short-selling and margin-trading activities and their impacts on returns in the Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yan; Gao, Yao

    2015-11-01

    We investigate the collective behaviors of short-selling and margin-trading between Chinese stocks and their impacts on the co-movements of stock returns by cross-correlation and partial correlation analyses. We find that the collective behaviors of margin-trading are largely attributed to the index cohesive force, while those of short-selling are mainly due to some direct interactions between stocks. Interestingly, the dominant role the finance industry plays in the collective behaviors of short-selling could make it more important in affecting the co-movement structure of stock returns by strengthening its relationship with the market index. By detecting the volume-return and volume-volatility relationships, we find that the investors of the two leverage activities are positively triggered by individual stock volatility first, and next, at the return level, margin-buyers show trend-following properties, while short-sellers are probably informative traders who trade on the information impulse of specific firms. However, the return predictability of the two leverage trading activities and their impacts on stock volatility are not significant. Moreover, both tails of the cumulative distributions of the two leverage trading activities are found following the stretched exponential law better than the power-law.

  5. Distribution, stock composition and timing, and tagging response of wild Chinook Salmon returning to a large, free-flowing river basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eiler, John H.; Masuda, Michele; Spencer, Ted R.; Driscoll, Richard J.; Schreck, Carl B.

    2014-01-01

    Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returns to the Yukon River basin have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and detailed information on the spawning distribution, stock structure, and stock timing is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio-tagged in the lower basin during 2002–2004 and tracked upriver. Fish traveled to spawning areas throughout the basin, ranging from several hundred to over 3,000 km from the tagging site. Similar distribution patterns were observed across years, suggesting that the major components of the run were identified. Daily and seasonal composition estimates were calculated for the component stocks. The run was dominated by two regional components comprising over 70% of the return. Substantially fewer fish returned to other areas, ranging from 2% to 9% of the return, but their collective contribution was appreciable. Most regional components consisted of several principal stocks and a number of small, spatially isolated populations. Regional and stock composition estimates were similar across years even though differences in run abundance were reported, suggesting that the differences in abundance were not related to regional or stock-specific variability. Run timing was relatively compressed compared with that in rivers in the southern portion of the species’ range. Most stocks passed through the lower river over a 6-week period, ranging in duration from 16 to 38 d. Run timing was similar for middle- and upper-basin stocks, limiting the use of timing information for management. The lower-basin stocks were primarily later-run fish. Although differences were observed, there was general agreement between our composition and timing estimates and those from other assessment projects within the basin, suggesting that the telemetry-based estimates provided a plausible approximation of the return. However, the short duration of the run, complex stock structure, and

  6. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  7. Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

    Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

  8. Bivariate sub-Gaussian model for stock index returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jabłońska-Sabuka, Matylda; Teuerle, Marek; Wyłomańska, Agnieszka

    2017-11-01

    Financial time series are commonly modeled with methods assuming data normality. However, the real distribution can be nontrivial, also not having an explicitly formulated probability density function. In this work we introduce novel parameter estimation and high-powered distribution testing methods which do not rely on closed form densities, but use the characteristic functions for comparison. The approach applied to a pair of stock index returns demonstrates that such a bivariate vector can be a sample coming from a bivariate sub-Gaussian distribution. The methods presented here can be applied to any nontrivially distributed financial data, among others.

  9. Illiquidity premium and expected stock returns in the UK: A new approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jiaqi; Sherif, Mohamed

    2016-09-01

    This study examines the relative importance of liquidity risk for the time-series and cross-section of stock returns in the UK. We propose a simple way to capture the multidimensionality of illiquidity. Our analysis indicates that existing illiquidity measures have considerable asset specific components, which justifies our new approach. Further, we use an alternative test of the Amihud (2002) measure and parametric and non-parametric methods to investigate whether liquidity risk is priced in the UK. We find that the inclusion of the illiquidity factor in the capital asset pricing model plays a significant role in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns, in particular with the Fama-French three-factor model. Further, using Hansen-Jagannathan non-parametric bounds, we find that the illiquidity-augmented capital asset pricing models yield a small distance error, other non-liquidity based models fail to yield economically plausible distance values. Our findings have important implications for managing the liquidity risk of equity portfolios.

  10. The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan

    2015-06-01

    The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.

  11. Stylized facts in internal rates of return on stock index and its derivative transactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pichl, Lukáš; Kaizoji, Taisei; Yamano, Takuya

    2007-08-01

    Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in normalized log returns, the probability distributions for such single asset encounters incorporate the time factor by means of the internal rate of return, defined as the continuous compound interest. Resulting stylized facts are shown in the probability distributions derived from the daily series of TOPIX, S & P 500 and FTSE 100 index close values. The application of the above analysis to minute-tick data of NIKKEI 225 and its futures market, respectively, reveals an interesting difference in the behavior of the two probability distributions, in case a threshold on the minimal duration of the long position is imposed. It is therefore suggested that the probability distributions of the internal rates of return could be used for causality mining between the underlying and derivative stock markets. The highly specific discrete spectrum, which results from noise trader strategies as opposed to the smooth distributions observed for fundamentalist strategies in single encounter transactions may be useful in deducing the type of investment strategy from trading revenues of small portfolio investors.

  12. A multiscale analysis of stock return co-movements and spillovers: Evidence from Pacific developed markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Debojyoti; Bhowmik, Puja; Jana, R. K.

    2018-07-01

    In this paper we examine the stock market co-movement and volatility spillover dynamics in the Pacific developed markets for a period spanning over January 05, 2001 to January 09, 2018. We employ wavelet-based techniques to study the multiscale co-movement dynamics of stock returns. Additionally, we also study the subtleties of volatility spillover of returns among the sample countries. We find that: (a) diversification benefits in these markets are limited due to higher degrees of integration, (b) Pacific developed markets co-move strongly during the periods of financial crisis (i.e. the contagion hypothesis) and (c) higher degree of volatility spills during financial crisis. We believe our study holds significance in the perspective of international portfolio diversification.

  13. Black-Litterman model on non-normal stock return (Case study four banks at LQ-45 stock index)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahrivandi, Rizki; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot Riwi

    2017-03-01

    The formation of the optimal portfolio is a method that can help investors to minimize risks and optimize profitability. One model for the optimal portfolio is a Black-Litterman (BL) model. BL model can incorporate an element of historical data and the views of investors to form a new prediction about the return of the portfolio as a basis for preparing the asset weighting models. BL model has two fundamental problems, the assumption of normality and estimation parameters on the market Bayesian prior framework that does not from a normal distribution. This study provides an alternative solution where the modelling of the BL model stock returns and investor views from non-normal distribution.

  14. Quantifying the cross-sectional relationship between online sentiment and the skewness of stock returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Dehua; Liu, Lanbiao; Zhang, Yongjie

    2018-01-01

    The constantly increasing utilization of social media as the alternative information channel, e.g., Twitter, provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. In this paper, we employ the daily happiness sentiment extracted from Twitter as the proxy for the online sentiment dynamics and investigate its association with the skewness of stock returns of 26 international stock market index returns. The empirical results show that: (1) by dividing the daily happiness sentiment into quintiles from the least to the most happiness days, the skewness of the Most-happiness subgroup is significantly larger than that of the Least-happiness subgroup. Besides, there exist significant differences in any pair of subgroups; (2) in an event study methodology, we further show that the skewness around the highest happiness days is significantly larger than the skewness around the lowest happiness days.

  15. A first application of independent component analysis to extracting structure from stock returns.

    PubMed

    Back, A D; Weigend, A S

    1997-08-01

    This paper explores the application of a signal processing technique known as independent component analysis (ICA) or blind source separation to multivariate financial time series such as a portfolio of stocks. The key idea of ICA is to linearly map the observed multivariate time series into a new space of statistically independent components (ICs). We apply ICA to three years of daily returns of the 28 largest Japanese stocks and compare the results with those obtained using principal component analysis. The results indicate that the estimated ICs fall into two categories, (i) infrequent large shocks (responsible for the major changes in the stock prices), and (ii) frequent smaller fluctuations (contributing little to the overall level of the stocks). We show that the overall stock price can be reconstructed surprisingly well by using a small number of thresholded weighted ICs. In contrast, when using shocks derived from principal components instead of independent components, the reconstructed price is less similar to the original one. ICA is shown to be a potentially powerful method of analyzing and understanding driving mechanisms in financial time series. The application to portfolio optimization is described in Chin and Weigend (1998).

  16. Indication of multiscaling in the volatility return intervals of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2008-01-01

    The distribution of the return intervals τ between price volatilities above a threshold height q for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined nonlinear mechanism, we investigate intraday data sets of 500 stocks which consist of Standard & Poor’s 500 index. We show that the cumulative distribution of return intervals has systematic deviations from scaling. We support this finding by studying the m -th moment μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , which show a certain trend with the mean interval ⟨τ⟩ . We generate surrogate records using the Schreiber method, and find that their cumulative distributions almost collapse to a single curve and moments are almost constant for most ranges of ⟨τ⟩ . Those substantial differences suggest that nonlinear correlations in the original volatility sequence account for the deviations from a single scaling law. We also find that the original and surrogate records exhibit slight tendencies for short and long ⟨τ⟩ , due to the discreteness and finite size effects of the records, respectively. To avoid as possible those effects for testing the multiscaling behavior, we investigate the moments in the range 10<⟨τ⟩≤100 , and find that the exponent α from the power law fitting μm˜⟨τ⟩α has a narrow distribution around α≠0 which depends on m for the 500 stocks. The distribution of α for the surrogate records are very narrow and centered around α=0 . This suggests that the return interval distribution exhibits multiscaling behavior due to the nonlinear correlations in the original volatility.

  17. Detrended cross-correlations between returns, volatility, trading activity, and volume traded for the stock market companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rak, Rafał; Drożdż, Stanisław; Kwapień, Jarosław; Oświȩcimka, Paweł

    2015-11-01

    We consider a few quantities that characterize trading on a stock market in a fixed time interval: logarithmic returns, volatility, trading activity (i.e., the number of transactions), and volume traded. We search for the power-law cross-correlations among these quantities aggregated over different time units from 1 min to 10 min. Our study is based on empirical data from the American stock market consisting of tick-by-tick recordings of 31 stocks listed in Dow Jones Industrial Average during the years 2008-2011. Since all the considered quantities except the returns show strong daily patterns related to the variable trading activity in different parts of a day, which are the most evident in the autocorrelation function, we remove these patterns by detrending before we proceed further with our study. We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis with sign preserving (MFCCA) and show that the strongest power-law cross-correlations exist between trading activity and volume traded, while the weakest ones exist (or even do not exist) between the returns and the remaining quantities. We also show that the strongest cross-correlations are carried by those parts of the signals that are characterized by large and medium variance. Our observation that the most convincing power-law cross-correlations occur between trading activity and volume traded reveals the existence of strong fractal-like coupling between these quantities.

  18. Return volatility interval analysis of stock indexes during a financial crash

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei-Shen; Liaw, Sy-Sang

    2015-09-01

    We investigate the interval between return volatilities above a certain threshold q for 10 countries data sets during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, and divide these data into several stages according to stock price tendencies: plunging stage (stage 1), fluctuating or rebounding stage (stage 2) and soaring stage (stage 3). For different thresholds q, the cumulative distribution function always satisfies a power law tail distribution. We find the absolute value of the power-law exponent is lowest in stage 1 for various types of markets, and increases monotonically from stage 1 to stage 3 in emerging markets. The fractal dimension properties of the return volatility interval series provide some surprising results. We find that developed markets have strong persistence and transform to weaker correlation in the plunging and soaring stages. In contrast, emerging markets fail to exhibit such a transformation, but rather show a constant-correlation behavior with the recurrence of extreme return volatility in corresponding stages during a crash. We believe this long-memory property found in recurrence-interval series, especially for developed markets, plays an important role in volatility clustering.

  19. Risk Perceptions on Hurricanes: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Feria-Domínguez, José Manuel; Paneque, Pilar; Gil-Hurtado, María

    2017-01-01

    This article examines the market reaction of the main Property and Casualty (P & C) insurance companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to seven most recent hurricanes that hit the East Coast of the United States from 2005 to 2012. For this purpose, we run a standard short horizon event study in order to test the existence of abnormal returns around the landfalls. P & C companies are one of the most affected sectors by such events because of the huge losses to rebuild, help and compensate the inhabitants of the affected areas. From the financial investors’ perception, this kind of events implies severe losses, which could influence the expected returns. Our research highlights the existence of significant cumulative abnormal returns around the landfall event window in most of the hurricanes analyzed, except for the Katrina and Sandy Hurricanes. PMID:28587237

  20. Risk Perceptions on Hurricanes: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Feria-Domínguez, José Manuel; Paneque, Pilar; Gil-Hurtado, María

    2017-06-05

    This article examines the market reaction of the main Property and Casualty (P & C) insurance companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to seven most recent hurricanes that hit the East Coast of the United States from 2005 to 2012. For this purpose, we run a standard short horizon event study in order to test the existence of abnormal returns around the landfalls. P & C companies are one of the most affected sectors by such events because of the huge losses to rebuild, help and compensate the inhabitants of the affected areas. From the financial investors' perception, this kind of events implies severe losses, which could influence the expected returns. Our research highlights the existence of significant cumulative abnormal returns around the landfall event window in most of the hurricanes analyzed, except for the Katrina and Sandy Hurricanes.

  1. How long is the memory of the US stock market?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Paulo; Dionísio, Andreia

    2016-06-01

    The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), one of the most important hypothesis in financial economics, argues that return rates have no memory (correlation) which implies that agents cannot make abnormal profits in financial markets, due to the possibility of arbitrage operations. With return rates for the US stock market, we corroborate the fact that with a linear approach, return rates do not show evidence of correlation. However, linear approaches might not be complete or global, since return rates could suffer from nonlinearities. Using detrended cross-correlation analysis and its correlation coefficient, a methodology which analyzes long-range behavior between series, we show that the long-range correlation of return rates only ends in the 149th lag, which corresponds to about seven months. Does this result undermine the EMH?

  2. The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Cathy W. S.; Yang, Ming Jing; Gerlach, Richard; Jim Lo, H.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns in five major markets to their own local news and the US information via linear and nonlinear models. We introduce a four-regime Double-Threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model, which allows asymmetry in both the conditional mean and variance equations simultaneously by employing two threshold variables, to analyze the stock markets’ reactions to different types of information (good/bad news) generated from the domestic markets and the US stock market. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this study finds that the interaction between the information of domestic and US stock markets leads to the asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their variability. In addition, this research also finds that the positive autocorrelation reported in the previous studies of financial markets may in fact be mis-specified, and actually due to the local market's positive response to the US stock market.

  3. Market Reactions to Publicly Announced Privacy and Security Breaches Suffered by Companies Listed on the United States Stock Exchanges: A Comparative Empirical Investigation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coronado, Adolfo S.

    2012-01-01

    Using a sample of security and privacy breaches the present research examines the comparative announcement impact between the two types of events. The first part of the dissertation analyzes the impact of publicly announced security and privacy breaches on abnormal stock returns, the change in firm risk, and abnormal trading volume are measured.…

  4. Analysis of Realized Volatility for Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Watanabe, Toshiaki

    2016-04-01

    We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate realized volatility separately in the two trading sessions, i.e. morning and afternoon, of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and find that the microstructure noise decreases the realized volatility at small sampling frequency. Using realized volatility as a proxy of the integrated volatility we standardize returns in the morning and afternoon sessions and investigate the normality of the standardized returns by calculating variance, kurtosis and 6th moment. We find that variance, kurtosis and 6th moment are consistent with those of the standard normal distribution, which indicates that the return dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average are well described by a Gaussian random process with time-varying volatility.

  5. The overnight effect on the Taiwan stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Kuo-Ting; Lih, Jiann-Shing; Ko, Jing-Yuan

    2012-12-01

    This study examines statistical regularities among three components of stocks and indices: daytime (trading hour) return, overnight (off-hour session) return, and total (close-to-close) return. Owing to the fact that the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) has the longest non-trading periods among major markets, the TWSE is selected to explore the correlation among the three components and compare it with major markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ). Analysis results indicate a negative cross correlation between the sign of daytime return and the sign of overnight return; possibly explaining why most stocks feature a negative cross correlation between daytime return and overnight return [F. Wang, S.-J. Shieh, S. Havlin, H.E. Stanley, Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return, Phys. Rev. E 79 (2009) 056109]. Additionally, the cross correlation between the magnitude of returns is analyzed. According to those results, a larger magnitude of overnight return implies a higher probability that the sign of the following daytime return is the opposite of the sign of overnight return. Namely, the predictability of daytime return might be improved when a stock undergoes a large magnitude of overnight return. Furthermore, the cross correlations of 29 indices of worldwide markets are discussed.

  6. An analysis of security price risk and return among publicly traded pharmacy corporations.

    PubMed

    Gilligan, Adrienne M; Skrepnek, Grant H

    2013-01-01

    Community pharmacies have been subject to intense and increasing competition in the past several decades. To determine the security price risk and rate of return of publicly traded pharmacy corporations present on the major U.S. stock exchanges from 1930 to 2009. The Center of Research in Security Prices (CRSP) database was used to examine monthly security-level stock market prices in this observational retrospective study. The primary outcome of interest was the equity risk premium, with analyses focusing upon financial metrics associated with risk and return based upon modern portfolio theory (MPT) including: abnormal returns (i.e., alpha), volatility (i.e., beta), and percentage of returns explained (i.e., adjusted R(2)). Three equilibrium models were estimated using random-effects generalized least squares (GLS): 1) the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); 2) Fama-French Three-Factor Model; and 3) Carhart Four-Factor Model. Seventy-five companies were examined from 1930 to 2009, with overall adjusted R(2) values ranging from 0.13 with the CAPM to 0.16 with the Four-Factor model. Alpha was not significant within any of the equilibrium models across the entire 80-year time period, though was found from 1999 to 2009 in the Three- and Four-Factor models to be associated with a large, significant, and negative risk-adjusted abnormal returns of -33.84%. Volatility varied across specific time periods based upon the financial model employed. This investigation of risk and return within publicly listed pharmacy corporations from 1930 to 2009 found that substantial losses were incurred particularly from 1999 to 2009, with risk-adjusted security valuations decreasing by one-third. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk-Adjusted Returns and Stock Market Games.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kagan, Gary; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that stock market games are designed to provide students with a background for investing in securities, especially stocks. Reviews two games used with secondary students, analyzes statistical data from these experiences, and considers weaknesses in the games. (CFR)

  8. Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

    2017-09-01

    We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

  9. Multifractal in Volatility of Family Business Stocks Listed on Casablanca STOCK Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, we check for existence of multifractal in volatility of Moroccan family business stock returns and in volatility of Casablanca market index returns based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) technique. Empirical results show strong evidence of multifractal characteristics in volatility series of both family business stocks and market index. In addition, it is found that small variations in volatility of family business stocks are persistent, whilst small variations in volatility of market index are anti-persistent. However, large variations in family business volatility and market index volatility are both anti-persistent. Furthermore, multifractal spectral analysis based results show strong evidence that volatility in Moroccan family business companies exhibits more multifractality than volatility in the main stock market. These results may provide insightful information for risk managers concerned with family business stocks.

  10. Analysis of cyclical behavior in time series of stock market returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stratimirović, Djordje; Sarvan, Darko; Miljković, Vladimir; Blesić, Suzana

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: the wavelet transform (WT) spectral analysis to identify cycles in the SMI returns data, and the time-dependent detrended moving average (tdDMA) analysis to investigate local behavior around market cycles and trends. We found cyclical behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. Moreover, the positions and the boundaries of cyclical intervals that we found seam to be common for all markets in our dataset. We list and illustrate the presence of nine such periods in our SMI data. We report on the possibilities to differentiate between the level of growth of the analyzed markets by way of statistical analysis of the properties of wavelet spectra that characterize particular peak behaviors. Our results show that measures like the relative WT energy content and the relative WT amplitude of the peaks in the small scales region could be used to partially differentiate between market economies. Finally, we propose a way to quantify the level of development of a stock market based on estimation of local complexity of market's SMI series. From the local scaling exponents calculated for our nine peak regions we have defined what we named the Development Index, which proved, at least in the case of our dataset, to be suitable to rank the SMI series that we have analyzed in three distinct groups.

  11. Statistical analysis of bankrupting and non-bankrupting stocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qian; Wang, Fengzhong; Wei, Jianrong; Liang, Yuan; Huang, Jiping; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2012-04-01

    The recent financial crisis has caused extensive world-wide economic damage, affecting in particular those who invested in companies that eventually filed for bankruptcy. A better understanding of stocks that become bankrupt would be helpful in reducing risk in future investments. Economists have conducted extensive research on this topic, and here we ask whether statistical physics concepts and approaches may offer insights into pre-bankruptcy stock behavior. To this end, we study all 20092 stocks listed in US stock markets for the 20-year period 1989-2008, including 4223 (21 percent) that became bankrupt during that period. We find that, surprisingly, the distributions of the daily returns of those stocks that become bankrupt differ significantly from those that do not. Moreover, these differences are consistent for the entire period studied. We further study the relation between the distribution of returns and the length of time until bankruptcy, and observe that larger differences of the distribution of returns correlate with shorter time periods preceding bankruptcy. This behavior suggests that sharper fluctuations in the stock price occur when the stock is closer to bankruptcy. We also analyze the cross-correlations between the return and the trading volume, and find that stocks approaching bankruptcy tend to have larger return-volume cross-correlations than stocks that are not. Furthermore, the difference increases as bankruptcy approaches. We conclude that before a firm becomes bankrupt its stock exhibits unusual behavior that is statistically quantifiable.

  12. Comparable Stocks, Boundedly Rational Stock Markets and IPO Entry Rates

    PubMed Central

    Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses. PMID:23690924

  13. Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

    PubMed

    Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO) entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

  14. 27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

  15. 27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

  16. 27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

  17. 27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

  18. 27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette....28T09, 2009 Floor Stocks Tax Return—Tobacco Products and Cigarette Papers and Tubes, is available for...

  19. Network analysis of returns and volume trading in stock markets: The Euro Stoxx case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brida, Juan Gabriel; Matesanz, David; Seijas, Maria Nela

    2016-02-01

    This study applies network analysis to analyze the structure of the Euro Stoxx market during the long period from 2002 up to 2014. The paper generalizes previous research on stock market networks by including asset returns and volume trading as the main variables to study the financial market. A multidimensional generalization of the minimal spanning tree (MST) concept is introduced, by adding the role of trading volume to the traditional approach which only includes price returns. Additionally, we use symbolization methods to the raw data to study the behavior of the market structure in different, normal and critical, situations. The hierarchical organization of the network is derived, and the MST for different sub-periods of 2002-2014 is created to illustrate how the structure of the market evolves over time. From the structural topologies of these trees, different clusters of companies are identified and analyzed according to their geographical and economic links. Two important results are achieved. Firstly, as other studies have highlighted, at the time of the financial crisis after 2008 the network becomes a more centralized one. Secondly and most important, during our second period of analysis, 2008-2014, we observe that hierarchy becomes more country-specific where different sub-clusters of stocks belonging to France, Germany, Spain or Italy are found apart from their business sector group. This result may suggest that during this period of time financial investors seem to be worried most about country specific economic circumstances.

  20. Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns

    PubMed Central

    Perotti, Pietro; Wagenhofer, Alfred

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines how commonly used earnings quality measures fulfill a key objective of financial reporting, i.e., improving decision usefulness for investors. We propose a stock-price-based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. We predict that firms with higher earnings quality will be less mispriced than other firms. Mispricing is measured by the difference of the mean absolute excess returns of portfolios formed on high and low values of a measure. We examine persistence, predictability, two measures of smoothness, abnormal accruals, accruals quality, earnings response coefficient and value relevance. For a large sample of US non-financial firms over the period 1988–2007, we show that all measures except for smoothness are negatively associated with absolute excess returns, suggesting that smoothness is generally a favorable attribute of earnings. Accruals measures generate the largest spread in absolute excess returns, followed by smoothness and market-based measures. These results lend support to the widespread use of accruals measures as overall measures of earnings quality in the literature. PMID:26300582

  1. Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns.

    PubMed

    Perotti, Pietro; Wagenhofer, Alfred

    2014-06-01

    This paper examines how commonly used earnings quality measures fulfill a key objective of financial reporting, i.e., improving decision usefulness for investors. We propose a stock-price-based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. We predict that firms with higher earnings quality will be less mispriced than other firms. Mispricing is measured by the difference of the mean absolute excess returns of portfolios formed on high and low values of a measure. We examine persistence, predictability, two measures of smoothness, abnormal accruals, accruals quality, earnings response coefficient and value relevance. For a large sample of US non-financial firms over the period 1988-2007, we show that all measures except for smoothness are negatively associated with absolute excess returns, suggesting that smoothness is generally a favorable attribute of earnings. Accruals measures generate the largest spread in absolute excess returns, followed by smoothness and market-based measures. These results lend support to the widespread use of accruals measures as overall measures of earnings quality in the literature.

  2. On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2009-02-01

    Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x < 0 and the right part R(x) for x > 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

  3. The Index cohesive effect on stock market correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapira, Y.; Kenett, D. Y.; Ben-Jacob, E.

    2009-12-01

    We present empirical examination and reassessment of the functional role of the market Index, using datasets of stock returns for eight years, by analyzing and comparing the results for two very different markets: 1) the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), representing a large, mature market, and 2) the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), representing a small, young market. Our method includes special collective (holographic) analysis of stock-Index correlations, of nested stock correlations (including the Index as an additional ghost stock) and of bare stock correlations (after subtraction of the Index return from the stocks returns). Our findings verify and strongly substantiate the assumed functional role of the index in the financial system as a cohesive force between stocks, i.e., the correlations between stocks are largely due to the strong correlation between each stock and the Index (the adhesive effect), rather than inter-stock dependencies. The Index adhesive and cohesive effects on the market correlations in the two markets are presented and compared in a reduced 3-D principal component space of the correlation matrices (holographic presentation). The results provide new insights into the interplay between an index and its constituent stocks in TASE-like versus NYSE-like markets.

  4. Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

    2016-01-01

    In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks' price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds.

  5. Daily stock index return for the Canadian, UK, and US equity markets, compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International, obtained from Datastream.

    PubMed

    Li, Leon

    2018-02-01

    The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "Testing and comparing the performance of dynamic variance and correlation models in value-at-risk estimation. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 40, 116-135. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2017.02.006 (Li, 2017) [1]. Data on daily stock index return for the Canadian, UK, and US equity markets, as compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International, are provided in this paper. The country indices comprise at least 80% of the stock market capitalization of each country. The data cover the period from January 1, 1990, through September 8, 2016, and include 6963 observations. All stock prices are stated in dollars.

  6. 41 CFR 101-27.501 - Eligibility for return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Eligibility for return. 101-27.501 Section 101-27.501 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property Management...-Return of GSA Stock Items § 101-27.501 Eligibility for return. GSA stock items for which no current or...

  7. Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

    PubMed

    Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar

    2010-04-01

    The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

  8. Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

    2016-01-01

    In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks’ price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds. PMID:27893780

  9. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  10. Asymmetric conditional volatility in international stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Nuno B.; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.

    2007-08-01

    Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.

  11. The synchronicity between the stock and the stock index via information in market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Hai-Ling; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Guo, Wei; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2018-02-01

    The synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index in a market system is investigated. The results show that: (i) the synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index increases with the rising degree of market information capitalized into stock prices in certain range; (ii) the synchronicity decreases for large firm-specific information; (iii) the stock return synchronicity is small compared to the big noise trading, however the variance noise facilitates the synchronization within the tailored realms. These findings may be helpful in understanding the effect of market information on synchronicity, especially for the response of firm-specific information and noise trading to synchronicity.

  12. Herd behaviour experimental testing in laboratory artificial stock market settings. Behavioural foundations of stylised facts of financial returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manahov, Viktor; Hudson, Robert

    2013-10-01

    Many scholars express concerns that herding behaviour causes excess volatility, destabilises financial markets, and increases the likelihood of systemic risk. We use a special form of the Strongly Typed Genetic Programming (STGP) technique to evolve a stock market divided into two groups-a small subset of artificial agents called ‘Best Agents’ and a main cohort of agents named ‘All Agents’. The ‘Best Agents’ perform best in term of the trailing return of a wealth moving average. We then investigate whether herding behaviour can arise when agents trade Dow Jones, General Electric, and IBM financial instruments in four different artificial stock markets. This paper uses real historical quotes of the three financial instruments to analyse the behavioural foundations of stylised facts such as leptokurtosis, non-IIDness, and volatility clustering. We found evidence of more herding in a group of stocks than in individual stocks, but the magnitude of herding does not contribute to the mispricing of assets in the long run. Our findings suggest that the price formation process caused by the collective behaviour of the entire market exhibit less herding and is more efficient than the segmented market populated by a small subset of agents. Hence, greater genetic diversity leads to greater consistency with fundamental values and market efficiency.

  13. Price returns efficiency of the Shanghai A-Shares

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Wang Jiang; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Samsudin, Humaida Banu

    2014-06-01

    Beta measured from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is the most widely used risk to estimate expected return. In this paper factors that influence Shanghai A-share stock return based on CAPM are explored and investigated. Price data of 312 companies listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from the year 2000 to 2011 are investigated. This study employed the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional method to avoid weakness of traditional CAPM. In addition, this study improves the model by adjusting missing data. Findings of this study justifies that systematic risk can explain the portfolios' returns of China SSE stock market.

  14. A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

    2017-02-01

    A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

  15. What distinguishes individual stocks from the index?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, F.; Milaković, M.; Alfarano, S.

    2010-01-01

    Stochastic volatility models decompose the time series of financial returns into the product of a volatility factor and an iid noise factor. Assuming a slow dynamic for the volatility factor, we show via nonparametric tests that both the index as well as its individual stocks share a common volatility factor. While the noise component is Gaussian for the index, individual stock returns turn out to require a leptokurtic noise. Thus we propose a two-component model for stocks, given by the sum of Gaussian noise, which reflects market-wide fluctuations, and Laplacian noise, which incorporates firm-specific factors such as firm profitability or growth performance, both of which are known to be Laplacian distributed. In the case of purely Gaussian noise, the chi-squared probability for the density of individual stock returns is typically on the order of 10-20, while it increases to values of O(1) by adding the Laplace component.

  16. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  17. Return Intervals Approach to Financial Fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    Financial fluctuations play a key role for financial markets studies. A new approach focusing on properties of return intervals can help to get better understanding of the fluctuations. A return interval is defined as the time between two successive volatilities above a given threshold. We review recent studies and analyze the 1000 most traded stocks in the US stock markets. We find that the distribution of the return intervals has a well approximated scaling over a wide range of thresholds. The scaling is also valid for various time windows from one minute up to one trading day. Moreover, these results are universal for stocks of different countries, commodities, interest rates as well as currencies. Further analysis shows some systematic deviations from a scaling law, which are due to the nonlinear correlations in the volatility sequence. We also examine the memory in return intervals for different time scales, which are related to the long-term correlations in the volatility. Furthermore, we test two popular models, FIGARCH and fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Both models can catch the memory effect but only fBm shows a good scaling in the return interval distribution.

  18. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan. PMID:26197482

  19. Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.

  20. Clustering stocks using partial correlation coefficients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Sean S.; Chang, Woojin

    2016-11-01

    A partial correlation analysis is performed on the Korean stock market (KOSPI). The difference between Pearson correlation and the partial correlation is analyzed and it is found that when conditioned on the market return, Pearson correlation coefficients are generally greater than those of the partial correlation, which implies that the market return tends to drive up the correlation between stock returns. A clustering analysis is then performed to study the market structure given by the partial correlation analysis and the members of the clusters are compared with the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The initial hypothesis is that the firms in the same GICS sector are clustered together since they are in a similar business and environment. However, the result is inconsistent with the hypothesis and most clusters are a mix of multiple sectors suggesting that the traditional approach of using sectors to determine the proximity between stocks may not be sufficient enough to diversify a portfolio.

  1. Association between Stock Market Gains and Losses and Google Searches

    PubMed Central

    Arditi, Eli; Yechiam, Eldad; Zahavi, Gal

    2015-01-01

    Experimental studies in the area of Psychology and Behavioral Economics have suggested that people change their search pattern in response to positive and negative events. Using Internet search data provided by Google, we investigated the relationship between stock-specific events and related Google searches. We studied daily data from 13 stocks from the Dow-Jones and NASDAQ100 indices, over a period of 4 trading years. Focusing on periods in which stocks were extensively searched (Intensive Search Periods), we found a correlation between the magnitude of stock returns at the beginning of the period and the volume, peak, and duration of search generated during the period. This relation between magnitudes of stock returns and subsequent searches was considerably magnified in periods following negative stock returns. Yet, we did not find that intensive search periods following losses were associated with more Google searches than periods following gains. Thus, rather than increasing search, losses improved the fit between people’s search behavior and the extent of real-world events triggering the search. The findings demonstrate the robustness of the attentional effect of losses. PMID:26513371

  2. Coupling detrended fluctuation analysis of Asian stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qizhen; Zhu, Yingming; Yang, Liansheng; Mul, Remco A. H.

    2017-04-01

    This paper uses the coupling detrended fluctuation analysis (CDFA) method to investigate the multifractal characteristics of four Asian stock markets using three stock indices: stock price returns, trading volumes and the composite index. The results show that coupled correlations exist among the four stock markets and the coupled correlations have multifractal characteristics. We then use the chi square (χ2) test to identify the sources of multifractality. For the different stock indices, the contributions of a single series to multifractality are different. In other words, the contributions of each country to coupled correlations are different. The comparative analysis shows that the research on the combine effect of stock price returns and trading volumes may be more comprehensive than on an individual index. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data with the residual errors of the vector autoregression (VAR) model, we find that the VAR model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the coupled correlations among four financial time series.

  3. Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners. PMID:26368537

  4. What Does Stock Ownership Breadth Measure?*

    PubMed Central

    Choi, James J.; Jin, Li; Yan, Hongjun

    2013-01-01

    Using holdings data on a representative sample of all Shanghai Stock Exchange investors, we show that increases in ownership breadth (the fraction of market participants who own a stock) predict low returns: highest change quintile stocks underperform lowest quintile stocks by 23% per year. Small retail investors drive this result. Retail ownership breadth increases appear to be correlated with overpricing. Among institutional investors, however, the opposite holds: Stocks in the top decile of wealth-weighted institutional breadth change outperform the bottom decile by 8% per year, consistent with prior work that interprets breadth as a measure of short-sales constraints. PMID:24764801

  5. Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

    2014-09-01

    The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

  6. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households

    PubMed Central

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2013-01-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses. PMID:23997423

  7. Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

    2012-06-01

    An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

  8. Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

    2014-09-01

    Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

  9. Crossover behavior of stock returns and mean square displacements of particles governed by the Langevin equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Wen-Jong; Wang, Shih-Chieh; Chen, Chi-Ning; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2013-06-01

    It is found that the mean square log-returns calculated from the high-frequency one-day moving average of US and Taiwan stocks with the time internal τ show ballistic behavior \\theta \\tau^{\\alpha_1} with the exponent \\alpha_1 \\approx 2 for small τ and show diffusion-like behavior D \\tau^{\\alpha_2} with the exponent \\alpha_2 \\approx 1 for large τ. Such a crossover behavior can be well described by the mean square displacements of particles governed by the Langevin equation of motion. Thus, θ and D can be considered, respectively, as the temperature-like and diffusivity-like kinetic parameters of the market, and they can be used to characterize the behavior of the market.

  10. Risk assessment and stock market volatility in the Eurozone: 1986-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, Rui; Oliveira, Álvaro

    2015-04-01

    This paper studies the stock market return's volatility in the Eurozone as an input for evaluating the market risk. Stock market returns are endogenously determined by long-term interest rate changes and so is the return's conditional variance. The conditional variance is the time-dependent variance of the underlying variable. In other words, it is the variance of the returns measured at each moment t, so it changes through time depending on the specific market structure at each time observation. Thus, a multivariate EGARCH model is proposed to capture the complex nature of this network. By network, in this context, we mean the chain of stock exchanges that co-move and interact in such a way that a shock in one of them propagates up to the other ones (contagion). Previous studies provide evidence that the Eurozone stock exchanges are deeply integrated. The results indicate that asymmetry and leverage effects exist along with fat tails and endogeneity. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests provide clear evidence that the multivariate EGARCH model performs better than the univariate counterpart to predict the behavior of returns both before and after the 2008 crisis.

  11. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

  12. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Rego, Henio H A; Silva, Jonathas N; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.

  13. Evolutionary model of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaldasch, Joachim

    2014-12-01

    The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks.

  14. Performing an Event Study: An Exercise for Finance Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reese, William A., Jr.; Robins, Russell P.

    2017-01-01

    This exercise helps instructors teach students how to perform a simple event study. The study tests to see if stocks earn abnormal returns when added to the S&P 500. Students select a random sample of stocks that were added to the index between January 2000 and July 2015. The accompanying spreadsheet calculates cumulative abnormal returns and…

  15. Modeling Markov switching ARMA-GARCH neural networks models and an application to forecasting stock returns.

    PubMed

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür

    2014-01-01

    The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100). Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray's MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray's MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  16. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    PubMed Central

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür

    2014-01-01

    The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100). Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray's MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray's MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications. PMID:24977200

  17. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  18. Quantized expected returns in terms of dividend yield at the money

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieng, Lamine

    2011-03-01

    We use the Bachelier (additive model) and the Black-Scholes (multiplicative model) as our models for the stock price movement for an investor who has entered into an America call option contract. We assume the investor to pay certain dividend yield on the expected rate of returns from buying stocks. In this work, we also assume the stock price to be initially in the out of the money state and eventually will move up through at the money state to the deep in the money state where the expected future payoffs and returns are positive for the stock holder. We call a singularity point at the money because the expected payoff vanishes at this point. Then, using martingale, supermartingale and Markov theories we obtain the Bachelier-type of the Black-Scholes and the Black-Scholes equations which we hedge in the limit where the change of the expected payoff of the call option is extremely small. Hence, by comparison we obtain the time-independent Schroedinger equation in Quantum Mechanics. We solve completely the time independent Schroedinger equation for both models to obtain the expected rate of returns and the expected payoffs for the stock holder at the money. We find the expected rate of returns to be quantized in terms of the dividend yield.

  19. A causality between fund performance and stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Ho-Yong; Kwon, Okyu; Oh, Gabjin

    2016-02-01

    We investigate whether the characteristic fund performance indicators (FPI), such as the fund return, the Net asset value (NAV) and the cash flow, are correlated with the asset price movement using information flows estimated by the Granger causality test. First, we find that the information flow of FPI is most sensitive to extreme events of the Korean stock market, which include negative events such as the sub-prime crisis and the impact of QE (quantitative easing) by the US subprime and Europe financial crisis as well as the positive events of the golden period of Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), except for the fund cash flow. Second, both the fund return and the NAV exhibit significant correlations with the KOSPI, whereas the cash flow is not correlated with the stock market. This result suggests that the information resulting from the ability of the fund manager should influence stock market. Finally, during market crisis period, information flows between FPI and the Korean stock market are significantly positively correlated with the market volatility.

  20. Arbitrage and Volatility in Chinese Stock's Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Shu Quan; Ito, Takao; Zhang, Jianbo

    From the point of view of no-arbitrage pricing, what matters is how much volatility the stock has, for volatility measures the amount of profit that can be made from shorting stocks and purchasing options. With the short-sales constraints or in the absence of options, however, high volatility is likely to mean arbitrage from stock market. As emerging stock markets for China, investors are increasingly concerned about volatilities of Chinese two stock markets. We estimate volatility's models for Chinese stock markets' indexes using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and GARCH. We find that estimated values of volatility parameters are very high for all data frequencies. It suggests that stock returns are extremely volatile even at long term intervals in Chinese markets. Furthermore, this result could be considered that there seems to be arbitrage opportunities in Chinese stock markets.

  1. HMO behavior and stock market valuation: what does Wall Street reward and punish?

    PubMed

    Pauly, M V; Hillman, A L; Furukawa, M F; McCullough, J S

    2001-01-01

    This article analyzes the variation in returns to owning stock in investor-owned health maintenance organizations (IOHMOs) for the period 1994-1997. The average return (measured by the change in the market value of the stock plus dividends) was close to zero, but returns were positive and high for firms operating in local markets that were and remained less competitive, with large nationwide scope, and with less rapidly growing panels of contracted physicians. Indicators of a firm's strategic direction were abstracted from their annual reports; firms pursuing a merger or acquisition strategy, and those emphasizing a utilization review strategy, showed lower returns than those that did not. Other strategy and market variables were not related to stock market returns over this period, and were also generally not related to price-earnings ratios. This analysis supports the view that competitive HMO markets best constrain profits to investor-owned firms.

  2. Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

    2015-03-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

  3. Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

    2016-04-01

    It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

  4. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

    PubMed Central

    HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

  5. Cross-Correlation Asymmetries and Causal Relationships between Stock and Market Risk

    PubMed Central

    Borysov, Stanislav S.; Balatsky, Alexander V.

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994–2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa. PMID:25162697

  6. Cross-correlation asymmetries and causal relationships between stock and market risk.

    PubMed

    Borysov, Stanislav S; Balatsky, Alexander V

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.

  7. Analysis of Realized Volatility in Two Trading Sessionsof the Japanese Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaishi, T.; Chen, T. T.; Zheng, Z.

    We analyze realized volatilities constructedusing high-frequency stock data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In order to avoid non-trading hours issue in volatility calculations we define two realized volatilities calculated separately in the two trading sessions of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, i.e. morning and afternoon sessions. After calculating the realized volatilities at various sampling frequencies we evaluate the bias from the microstructure noise as a function of sampling frequency. Taking account of the bias to realized volatility we examine returns standardized by realized volatilities and confirm that price returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange are described approximately by Gaussian time series with time-varying volatility, i.e. consistent with a mixture of distributions hypothesis.

  8. Long memory of abnormal investor attention and the cross-correlations between abnormal investor attention and trading volume, volatility respectively

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Xiaoqian; Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xintian; Jin, Xiu

    2017-03-01

    Taking Baidu Index as a proxy for abnormal investor attention (AIA), the long memory property in the AIA of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) 50 Index component stocks was empirically investigated using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The results show that abnormal investor attention is power-law correlated with Hurst exponents between 0.64 and 0.98. Furthermore, the cross-correlations between abnormal investor attention and trading volume, volatility respectively are studied using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and the DCCA cross-correlation coefficient (ρDCCA). The results suggest that there are positive correlations between AIA and trading volume, volatility respectively. In addition, the correlations for trading volume are in general higher than the ones for volatility. By carrying on rescaled range analysis (R/S) and rolling windows analysis, we find that the results mentioned above are effective and significant.

  9. Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals.

    PubMed

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

    2009-01-01

    We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals tau , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of tau , P_(q)(tau) , assuming a stretched exponential function, P_(q)(tau) approximately e;(-tau;(gamma)) . We find that the exponent gamma depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how gamma depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that gamma depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that gamma relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of tau , mu_(m) identical with(tautau);(m);(1m) , in the range of 10return but not on the number of trades, and its tendency is opposite to that of gamma . Moreover, we show that delta decreases with increasing gamma approximately by a linear relation. The return intervals demonstrate the temporal structure of volatilities and our findings suggest that their multiscaling features may be helpful for portfolio optimization.

  10. Analysis of aggregated tick returns: Evidence for anomalous diffusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Philipp

    2007-01-01

    In order to investigate the origin of large price fluctuations, we analyze stock price changes of ten frequently traded NASDAQ stocks in the year 2002. Though the influence of the trading frequency on the aggregate return in a certain time interval is important, it cannot alone explain the heavy-tailed distribution of stock price changes. For this reason, we analyze intervals with a fixed number of trades in order to eliminate the influence of the trading frequency and investigate the relevance of other factors for the aggregate return. We show that in tick time the price follows a discrete diffusion process with a variable step width while the difference between the number of steps in positive and negative direction in an interval is Gaussian distributed. The step width is given by the return due to a single trade and is long-term correlated in tick time. Hence, its mean value can well characterize an interval of many trades and turns out to be an important determinant for large aggregate returns. We also present a statistical model reproducing the cumulative distribution of aggregate returns. For an accurate agreement with the empirical distribution, we also take into account asymmetries of the step widths in different directions together with cross correlations between these asymmetries and the mean step width as well as the signs of the steps.

  11. A multi-assets artificial stock market with zero-intelligence traders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponta, L.; Raberto, M.; Cincotti, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a multi-assets artificial financial market populated by zero-intelligence traders with finite financial resources is presented. The market is characterized by different types of stocks representing firms operating in different sectors of the economy. Zero-intelligence traders follow a random allocation strategy which is constrained by finite resources, past market volatility and allocation universe. Within this framework, stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering, fat-tailed distribution of returns and reversion to the mean. Moreover, the cross-correlations between returns of different stocks are studied using methods of random matrix theory. The probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix shows the presence of outliers, similar to those recently observed on real data for business sectors. It is worth noting that business sectors have been recovered in our framework without dividends as only consequence of random restrictions on the allocation universe of zero-intelligence traders. Furthermore, in the presence of dividend-paying stocks and in the case of cash inflow added to the market, the artificial stock market points out the same structural results obtained in the simulation without dividends. These results suggest a significative structural influence on statistical properties of multi-assets stock market.

  12. Multifractals in Western Major STOCK Markets Historical Volatilities in Times of Financial Crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.

  13. Static and dynamic factors in an information-based multi-asset artificial stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano

    2018-02-01

    An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.

  14. A spring-block analogy for the dynamics of stock indexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sándor, Bulcsú; Néda, Zoltán

    2015-06-01

    A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving belt corresponds to the expected economic growth. The spring-block system produces collective behavior and avalanche like phenomena, similar to the ones observed in stock markets. An artificial index is defined for the spring-block chain, and its dynamics is compared with the one measured for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For certain parameter regions the model reproduces qualitatively well the dynamics of the logarithmic index, the logarithmic returns, the distribution of the logarithmic returns, the avalanche-size distribution and the distribution of the investment horizons. A noticeable success of the model is that it is able to account for the gain-loss asymmetry observed in the inverse statistics. Our approach has mainly a pedagogical value, bridging between a complex socio-economic phenomena and a basic (mechanical) model in physics.

  15. Increasing market efficiency in the stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jae-Suk; Kwak, Wooseop; Kaizoji, Taisei; Kim, In-Mook

    2008-01-01

    We study the temporal evolutions of three stock markets; Standard and Poor's 500 index, Nikkei 225 Stock Average, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index. We observe that the probability density function of the log-return has a fat tail but the tail index has been increasing continuously in recent years. We have also found that the variance of the autocorrelation function, the scaling exponent of the standard deviation, and the statistical complexity decrease, but that the entropy density increases as time goes over time. We introduce a modified microscopic spin model and simulate the model to confirm such increasing and decreasing tendencies in statistical quantities. These findings indicate that these three stock markets are becoming more efficient.

  16. Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2009-01-01

    We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals τ , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of τ , Pq(τ) , assuming a stretched exponential function, Pq(τ)˜e-τγ . We find that the exponent γ depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how γ depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that γ depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that γ relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of τ , μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , in the range of 10<⟨τ⟩⩽100 by a power law, μm˜⟨τ⟩δ . The exponent δ is found also to depend on the capitalization, risk, and return but not on the number of trades, and its tendency is opposite to that of γ . Moreover, we show that δ decreases with increasing γ approximately by a linear relation. The return intervals demonstrate the temporal structure of volatilities and our findings suggest that their multiscaling features may be helpful for portfolio optimization.

  17. Empirical study of recent Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, J.; Li, W.; Cai, X.; Wang, Qiuping A.

    2009-05-01

    We investigate the statistical properties of the empirical data taken from the Chinese stock market during the time period from January, 2006 to July, 2007. By using the methods of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and calculating correlation coefficients, we acquire the evidence of strong correlations among different stock types, stock index, stock volume turnover, A share (B share) seat number, and GDP per capita. In addition, we study the behavior of “volatility”, which is now defined as the difference between the new account numbers for two consecutive days. It is shown that the empirical power-law of the number of aftershock events exceeding the selected threshold is analogous to the Omori law originally observed in geophysics. Furthermore, we find that the cumulative distributions of stock return, trade volume and trade number are all exponential-like, which does not belong to the universality class of such distributions found by Xavier Gabaix et al. [Xavier Gabaix, Parameswaran Gopikrishnan, Vasiliki Plerou, H. Eugene Stanley, Nature, 423 (2003)] for major western markets. Through the comparison, we draw a conclusion that regardless of developed stock markets or emerging ones, “cubic law of returns” is valid only in the long-term absolute return, and in the short-term one, the distributions are exponential-like. Specifically, the distributions of both trade volume and trade number display distinct decaying behaviors in two separate regimes. Lastly, the scaling behavior of the relation is analyzed between dispersion and the mean monthly trade value for each administrative area in China.

  18. Distinguishing manipulated stocks via trading network analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Shen, Hua-Wei; Wang, Zhao-Yang

    2011-10-01

    Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. For the study of manipulation, it is critical to analyze investor behavior in the stock market. In this paper, an analysis of the full transaction records of over a hundred stocks in a one-year period is conducted. For each stock, a trading network is constructed to characterize the relations among its investors. In trading networks, nodes represent investors and a directed link connects a stock seller to a buyer with the total trade size as the weight of the link, and the node strength is the sum of all edge weights of a node. For all these trading networks, we find that the node degree and node strength both have tails following a power-law distribution. Compared with non-manipulated stocks, manipulated stocks have a high lower bound of the power-law tail, a high average degree of the trading network and a low correlation between the price return and the seller-buyer ratio. These findings may help us to detect manipulated stocks.

  19. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  20. 27 CFR 46.232 - Preparation of floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.232 Preparation of...

  1. 27 CFR 46.232 - Preparation of floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.232 Preparation of...

  2. 27 CFR 46.232 - Preparation of floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.232 Preparation of...

  3. 27 CFR 46.232 - Preparation of floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.232 Preparation of...

  4. 27 CFR 46.232 - Preparation of floor stocks tax return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.232 Preparation of...

  5. Variety of Behavior of Equity Returns in Financial Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonanno, Giovanni; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2001-03-01

    The price dynamics of a set of equities traded in an efficient market is pretty complex. It consists of almost not redundant time series which have (i) long-range correlated volatility and (ii) cross-correlation between each pair of equities. We perform a study of the statistical properties of an ensemble of equities returns which is fruitful to elucidate the nature and role of time and ensemble correlation. Specifically, we investigate a statistical ensemble of daily returns of n equities traded in United States financial markets. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days [1] with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days following to these extreme events [2]. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We call the second moment of the ensemble return distribution the variety of the market. We choose this term because high variety implies a variated behavior of the equities returns in the considered day. We observe that the mean return and the variety are fluctuating in time and are stochastic processes themselves. The variety is a long-range correlated stochastic process. Customary time-averaged statistical properties of time series of stock returns are also considered. In general, time-averaged and portfolio-averaged returns have different statistical properties [1]. We infer from these differences information about the relative strength of correlation between equities and between different trading days. We also compare our empirical results with those predicted by the single-index model and we conclude that this simple model is unable to explain the statistical properties of the second moment of the ensemble return distribution. Correlation between pairs of equities are continuously present in the dynamics of a stock portfolio. Hence, it is relevant to investigate pair correlation

  6. 26 CFR 1.338-8 - Asset and stock consistency.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... election under section 338 is deemed made or required with respect to target or any target affiliate... target during the target consistency period and target is a subsidiary in a consolidated group. In such a... consolidated return regulations in the basis of target stock and may reduce gain from the sale of the stock...

  7. 26 CFR 1.338-8 - Asset and stock consistency.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... election under section 338 is deemed made or required with respect to target or any target affiliate... target during the target consistency period and target is a subsidiary in a consolidated group. In such a... consolidated return regulations in the basis of target stock and may reduce gain from the sale of the stock...

  8. Analysis of portfolio optimization with lot of stocks amount constraint: case study index LQ45

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chin, Liem; Chendra, Erwinna; Sukmana, Agus

    2018-01-01

    To form an optimum portfolio (in the sense of minimizing risk and / or maximizing return), the commonly used model is the mean-variance model of Markowitz. However, there is no amount of lots of stocks constraint. And, retail investors in Indonesia cannot do short selling. So, in this study we will develop an existing model by adding an amount of lot of stocks and short-selling constraints to get the minimum risk of portfolio with and without any target return. We will analyse the stocks listed in the LQ45 index based on the stock market capitalization. To perform this analysis, we will use Solver that available in Microsoft Excel.

  9. Has microblogging changed stock market behavior? Evidence from China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xi; Shen, Dehua; Zhang, Wei

    2016-06-01

    This paper examines the stock market behavior for a long-lived subset of firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (CSI 300 Index) both before and after the establishment of firms' Microblogging in Sina Weibo. The empirical results show a significant increase in the relative trading volume as well as the decreases in the daily expected stock return and firm-level volatility in the post-Sina Weibo period. These findings suggest that Sina Weibo as an alternative information interaction channel has changed the information environment for individual stock, enhanced the speed of information diffusion and therefore changed the overall stock market behavior.

  10. Multifractal structures for the Russian stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ikeda, Taro

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we apply the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to the Russian stock price returns. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to reveal the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market by financial crises. The contributions of the paper are twofold. (i) Finding the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market. The generalized Hurst exponents estimated become highly-nonlinear to the order of the fluctuation functions. (ii) Computing the multifractality degree according to Zunino et al. (2008). We find that the multifractality degree of the Russian stock market can be categorized within emerging markets, however, the Russian 1998 crisis and the global financial crisis dampen the degree when we consider the order of the polynomial trends in the MFDFA.

  11. Understanding the multifractality in portfolio excess returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Cheng; Wang, Yudong

    2017-01-01

    The multifractality in stock returns have been investigated extensively. However, whether the autocorrelations in portfolio returns are multifractal have not been considered in the literature. In this paper, we detect multifractal behavior of returns of portfolios constructed based on two popular trading rules, size and book-to-market (BM) ratio. Using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, we find that the portfolio returns are significantly multifractal and the multifractality is mainly attributed to long-range dependence. We also investigate the multifractal cross-correlation between portfolio return and market average return using the detrended cross-correlation analysis. Our results show that the cross-correlations of small fluctuations are persistent, while those of large fluctuations are anti-persistent.

  12. Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tastan, Hüseyin

    2006-02-01

    This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.

  13. Impact of uncertainty in expected return estimation on stock price volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostanjcar, Zvonko; Jeren, Branko; Juretic, Zeljan

    2012-11-01

    We investigate the origin of volatility in financial markets by defining an analytical model for time evolution of stock share prices. The defined model is similar to the GARCH class of models, but can additionally exhibit bimodal behaviour in the supply-demand structure of the market. Moreover, it differs from existing Ising-type models. It turns out that the constructed model is a solution of a thermodynamic limit of a Gibbs probability measure when the number of traders and the number of stock shares approaches infinity. The energy functional of the Gibbs probability measure is derived from the Nash equilibrium of the underlying game.

  14. Temporal structure and gain-loss asymmetry for real and artificial stock indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siven, Johannes Vitalis; Lins, Jeffrey Todd

    2009-11-01

    Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We demonstrate that this so-called gain-loss asymmetry vanishes if the temporal dependence structure is destroyed by scrambling the time series. We also show that an artificial index constructed by a simple average of a number of individual stocks display gain-loss asymmetry—this allows us to explicitly analyze the dependence between the index constituents. We consider mutual information and correlation-based measures and show that the stock returns indeed have a higher degree of dependence in times of market downturns than upturns.

  15. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  16. Risk of portfolio with simulated returns based on copula model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

    2015-02-01

    The commonly used tool for measuring risk of a portfolio with equally weighted stocks is variance-covariance method. Under extreme circumstances, this method leads to significant underestimation of actual risk due to its multivariate normality assumption of the joint distribution of stocks. The purpose of this research is to compare the actual risk of portfolio with the simulated risk of portfolio in which the joint distribution of two return series is predetermined. The data used is daily stock prices from the ASEAN market for the period January 2000 to December 2012. The copula approach is applied to capture the time varying dependence among the return series. The results shows that the chosen copula families are not suitable to present the dependence structures of each bivariate returns. Exception for the Philippines-Thailand pair where by t copula distribution appears to be the appropriate choice to depict its dependence. Assuming that the t copula distribution is the joint distribution of each paired series, simulated returns is generated and value-at-risk (VaR) is then applied to evaluate the risk of each portfolio consisting of two simulated return series. The VaR estimates was found to be symmetrical due to the simulation of returns via elliptical copula-GARCH approach. By comparison, it is found that the actual risks are underestimated for all pairs of portfolios except for Philippines-Thailand. This study was able to show that disregard of the non-normal dependence structure of two series will result underestimation of actual risk of the portfolio.

  17. Research on the fractal structure in the Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Xin-tian; Huang, Xiao-yuan; Sha, Yan-li

    2004-02-01

    Applying fractal theory, this paper probes and discusses self-similarity and scale invariance of the Chinese stock market. It analyses three kinds of scale indexes, i.e., autocorrelation index, Hurst index and the scale index on the basis of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithm and promotes DFA into a recursive algorithm. Using the three kinds of scale indexes, we conduct empirical research on the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The results indicate that the rate of returns of the two stock markets does not obey the normal distribution. A correlation exists between the stock price indexes over time scales. The stock price indexes exhibit fractal time series. It indicates that the policy guide hidden at the back influences the characteristic of the Chinese stock market.

  18. Time-independent models of asset returns revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillemot, L.; Töyli, J.; Kertesz, J.; Kaski, K.

    2000-07-01

    In this study we investigate various well-known time-independent models of asset returns being simple normal distribution, Student t-distribution, Lévy, truncated Lévy, general stable distribution, mixed diffusion jump, and compound normal distribution. For this we use Standard and Poor's 500 index data of the New York Stock Exchange, Helsinki Stock Exchange index data describing a small volatile market, and artificial data. The results indicate that all models, excluding the simple normal distribution, are, at least, quite reasonable descriptions of the data. Furthermore, the use of differences instead of logarithmic returns tends to make the data looking visually more Lévy-type distributed than it is. This phenomenon is especially evident in the artificial data that has been generated by an inflated random walk process.

  19. Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2018-01-01

    An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

  20. Short-term market reaction after trading halts in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Hai-Chuan; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Yi-Fang

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday halts, one-day halts and inter-day halts, of 203 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange from August 2009 to 2011. We find that absolute return, trading volume, and in case of bid-ask spread around intraday halts share the same pattern with a sharp peak and a power law relaxation after that. While for different types of trading halts, the peaks’ height and the relaxation exponents are different. From the perspective of halt reasons or halt durations, the relaxation exponents of absolute return after inter-day halts are larger than those after intraday halts and one-day halts, which implies that inter-day halts are most effective. From the perspective of price trends, the relaxation exponents of excess absolute return and excess volume for positive events are larger than those for negative events in case of intraday halts and one-day halts, implying that positive events are more effective than negative events for intraday halts and one-day halts. In contrast, negative events are more effective than positive events for inter-day halts.

  1. Profitability of simple technical trading rules of Chinese stock exchange indexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Hong; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-12-01

    Although technical trading rules have been widely used by practitioners in financial markets, their profitability still remains controversial. We here investigate the profitability of moving average (MA) and trading range break (TRB) rules by using the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCI) from May 21, 1992 through December 31, 2013 and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index (SZCI) from April 3, 1991 through December 31, 2013. The t-test is adopted to check whether the mean returns which are conditioned on the trading signals are significantly different from unconditioned returns and whether the mean returns conditioned on the buy signals are significantly different from the mean returns conditioned on the sell signals. We find that TRB rules outperform MA rules and short-term variable moving average (VMA) rules outperform long-term VMA rules. By applying White's Reality Check test and accounting for the data snooping effects, we find that the best trading rule outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy when transaction costs are not taken into consideration. Once transaction costs are included, trading profits will be eliminated completely. Our analysis suggests that simple trading rules like MA and TRB cannot beat the standard buy-and-hold strategy for the Chinese stock exchange indexes.

  2. Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adkison, Milo D.; Peterson, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    Historically, forecast error for returns of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka to Bristol Bay, Alaska, has been large. Using cross-validation forecast error as our criterion, we selected forecast models for each of the nine principal Bristol Bay drainages. Competing forecast models included stock-recruitment relationships, environmental variables, prior returns of siblings, or combinations of these predictors. For most stocks, we found prior returns of siblings to be the best single predictor of returns; however, forecast accuracy was low even when multiple predictors were considered. For a typical drainage, an 80% confidence interval ranged from one half to double the point forecast. These confidence intervals appeared to be appropriately wide.

  3. Multiscale multifractal DCCA and complexity behaviors of return intervals for Potts price model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2018-02-01

    To investigate the characteristics of extreme events in financial markets and the corresponding return intervals among these events, we use a Potts dynamic system to construct a random financial time series model of the attitudes of market traders. We use multiscale multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MM-DCCA) and Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) perform numerical research of the return intervals for two significant China's stock market indices and for the proposed model. The new MM-DCCA method is based on the Hurst surface and provides more interpretable cross-correlations of the dynamic mechanism between different return interval series. We scale the LZC method with different exponents to illustrate the complexity of return intervals in different scales. Empirical studies indicate that the proposed return intervals from the Potts system and the real stock market indices hold similar statistical properties.

  4. Stock-specific migration timing of adult spring-summer Chinook salmon in the Columbia River basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, M.L.; Peery, C.A.; Jepson, M.A.; Tolotti, K.R.; Bjornn, T.C.; Stuehrenberg, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    An understanding of the migration timing patterns of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead O. mykiss is important for managing complex mixed-stock fisheries and preserving genetic and life history diversity. We examined adult return timing for 3,317 radio-tagged fish from 38 stocks of Columbia River basin spring-summer Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha over 5 years. Stock composition varied widely within and between years depending on the strength of influential populations. Most individual stocks migrated at similar times each year relative to overall runs, supporting the hypotheses that run timing is predictable, is at least partially due to genetic adaptation, and can be used to differentiate between some conspecific populations. Arrival timing of both aggregated radio-tagged stocks and annual runs was strongly correlated with river discharge; stocks arrived earlier at Bonneville Dam and at upstream dams in years with low discharge. Migration timing analyses identified many between-stock and between-year differences in anadromous salmonid return behavior and should and managers interested in protection and recovery of evolutionary significant populations.

  5. Is there any overtrading in stock markets? The moderating role of big five personality traits and gender in a unilateral trend stock market.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jian; Wang, Haocheng; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shuyi

    2014-01-01

    Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1) Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2) The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3) The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed.

  6. Financial factor influence on scaling and memory of trading volume in stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wei; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2011-10-01

    We study the daily trading volume volatility of 17 197 stocks in the US stock markets during the period 1989-2008 and analyze the time return intervals τ between volume volatilities above a given threshold q. For different thresholds q, the probability density function Pq(τ) scales with mean interval <τ> as Pq(τ)=<τ>-1f(τ/<τ>), and the tails of the scaling function can be well approximated by a power law f(x)˜x-γ. We also study the relation between the form of the distribution function Pq(τ) and several financial factors: stock lifetime, market capitalization, volume, and trading value. We find a systematic tendency of Pq(τ) associated with these factors, suggesting a multiscaling feature in the volume return intervals. We analyze the conditional probability Pq(τ|τ0) for τ following a certain interval τ0, and find that Pq(τ|τ0) depends on τ0 such that immediately following a short (long) return interval a second short (long) return interval tends to occur. We also find indications that there is a long-term correlation in the daily volume volatility. We compare our results to those found earlier for price volatility.

  7. How Random is the Walk: Efficiency of Indian Stock and Futures Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basu, Udayan Kumar

    Time series of prices of stock and its rates of return has been one of the major areas of study in Econophysics. The price of a stock depends on a number of factors as well as information related thereto, and how quickly and effectively the price of a stock assimilates all such information decides the efficiency of the stock market. Instead of individual stocks, people often study the behaviour of stock indices to get a feel of the market as a whole, and the outcomes of such studies for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the Nasdaq Index and the S & P 500 Index have been listed in a number of articles. In this context, it has also been argued that for a market to be considered sufficiently liquid, correlation between successive price movements and rates of return should be insignificant, because any significant correlation would lead to an arbitrage opportunity that is expected to be rapidly exploited and thus washed out. The residual correlations are those little enough not to be profitable for strategies due to imperfect market conditions. Unless transaction costs or slippages or any other impediment exists, leading to some transactional inefficiency, arbitrages would take place to bring back the markets to a stage of insignifficant correlations [1, 2].

  8. Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

    2013-02-01

    According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

  9. Multifractal characterization of energy stocks in China: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we investigate the impacts of oil price changes on energy stocks in Chinese stock market from the multifractal perspective. The well-known multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is applied to detect the multifractality. We find that both returns and volatilities of energy industry index display apparent multifractal behavior. Oil market activity is an important source of multifractality in energy stocks index in addition to long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions.

  10. Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

    2016-01-01

    This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

  11. Scaling and memory in volatility return intervals in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamasaki, Kazuko; Muchnik, Lev; Havlin, Shlomo; Bunde, Armin; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2005-06-01

    For both stock and currency markets, we study the return intervals τ between the daily volatilities of the price changes that are above a certain threshold q. We find that the distribution function Pq(τ) scales with the mean return interval [Formula] as [Formula]. The scaling function f(x) is similar in form for all seven stocks and for all seven currency databases analyzed, and f(x) is consistent with a power-law form, f(x) ˜ x-γ with γ ≈ 2. We also quantify how the conditional distribution Pq(τ|τ0) depends on the previous return interval τ0 and find that small (or large) return intervals are more likely to be followed by small (or large) return intervals. This “clustering” of the volatility return intervals is a previously unrecognized phenomenon that we relate to the long-term correlations known to be present in the volatility. Author contributions: S.H. and H.E.S. designed research; K.Y., L.M., S.H., and H.E.S. performed research; A.B. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; A.B. analyzed data; and S.H. wrote the paper.Abbreviations: pdf, probability density function; S&P 500, Standard and Poor's 500 Index; USD, U.S. dollar; JPY, Japanese yen; SEK, Swedish krona.

  12. Random matrix approach to the dynamics of stock inventory variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing; Mu, Guo-Hua; Kertész, János

    2012-09-01

    It is well accepted that investors can be classified into groups owing to distinct trading strategies, which forms the basic assumption of many agent-based models for financial markets when agents are not zero-intelligent. However, empirical tests of these assumptions are still very rare due to the lack of order flow data. Here we adopt the order flow data of Chinese stocks to tackle this problem by investigating the dynamics of inventory variations for individual and institutional investors that contain rich information about the trading behavior of investors and have a crucial influence on price fluctuations. We find that the distributions of cross-correlation coefficient Cij have power-law forms in the bulk that are followed by exponential tails, and there are more positive coefficients than negative ones. In addition, it is more likely that two individuals or two institutions have a stronger inventory variation correlation than one individual and one institution. We find that the largest and the second largest eigenvalues (λ1 and λ2) of the correlation matrix cannot be explained by random matrix theory and the projections of investors' inventory variations on the first eigenvector u(λ1) are linearly correlated with stock returns, where individual investors play a dominating role. The investors are classified into three categories based on the cross-correlation coefficients CV R between inventory variations and stock returns. A strong Granger causality is unveiled from stock returns to inventory variations, which means that a large proportion of individuals hold the reversing trading strategy and a small part of individuals hold the trending strategy. Our empirical findings have scientific significance in the understanding of investors' trading behavior and in the construction of agent-based models for emerging stock markets.

  13. Is There Any Overtrading in Stock Markets? The Moderating Role of Big Five Personality Traits and Gender in a Unilateral Trend Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jian; Wang, Haocheng; Wang, Limin; Liu, Shuyi

    2014-01-01

    Overtrading is a common anomaly among stock investors. This study examines the relationship between overtrading and investment returns and the impact of the Big Five traits and gender on overtrading in a unilateral trend stock market using a simulated stock investment system. The data were derived from a sample of undergraduates from six universities who performed in a simulated stock investment situation and had their personality traits measured by the Big Five Personality Questionnaire. The results indicate that: (1) Overtrading was significant in rising stock markets, but not significant in falling markets. (2) The degree of female investors who overtraded was significant in rising markets. (3) The degree of overtrading investors who were high in extroversion or agreeableness was significant in rising markets. The implications of these results for more effective investment strategies are discussed. PMID:24475235

  14. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  15. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  16. Aftermarket Performance of Health Care and Biopharmaceutical IPOs: Evidence From ASEAN Countries

    PubMed Central

    Komenkul, Kulabutr; Kiranand, Santi

    2017-01-01

    We examine the evidence from the long-run abnormal returns using data for 76 health care and biopharmaceutical initial public offerings (IPOs) listed in a 29-year period between 1986 and 2014 in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Laos. Based on the event-time approach, the 3-year stock returns of the IPOs are investigated using cumulative abnormal return (CAR) and buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). As a robustness check, the calendar-time approach, related to the market model as well as Fama-French and Carhart models, was applied for verifying long-run abnormal returns. We found evidence that the health care IPOs overperform in the long-run, irrespective of the alternative benchmarks and methods. In addition, when we divide our sample into 5 groups by listing countries, our results show that the health care stock prices of the Singaporean firms behaved differently from those of most of the other firms in ASEAN. The Singaporean IPOs are characterized by a worse post-offering performance, whereas the IPOs of Malaysian and Thai health care companies performed better in the long-run. PMID:28853306

  17. Aftermarket Performance of Health Care and Biopharmaceutical IPOs: Evidence From ASEAN Countries.

    PubMed

    Komenkul, Kulabutr; Kiranand, Santi

    2017-01-01

    We examine the evidence from the long-run abnormal returns using data for 76 health care and biopharmaceutical initial public offerings (IPOs) listed in a 29-year period between 1986 and 2014 in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Laos. Based on the event-time approach, the 3-year stock returns of the IPOs are investigated using cumulative abnormal return (CAR) and buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). As a robustness check, the calendar-time approach, related to the market model as well as Fama-French and Carhart models, was applied for verifying long-run abnormal returns. We found evidence that the health care IPOs overperform in the long-run, irrespective of the alternative benchmarks and methods. In addition, when we divide our sample into 5 groups by listing countries, our results show that the health care stock prices of the Singaporean firms behaved differently from those of most of the other firms in ASEAN. The Singaporean IPOs are characterized by a worse post-offering performance, whereas the IPOs of Malaysian and Thai health care companies performed better in the long-run.

  18. Modeling stock price dynamics by continuum percolation system and relevant complex systems analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Di; Wang, Jun

    2012-10-01

    The continuum percolation system is developed to model a random stock price process in this work. Recent empirical research has demonstrated various statistical features of stock price changes, the financial model aiming at understanding price fluctuations needs to define a mechanism for the formation of the price, in an attempt to reproduce and explain this set of empirical facts. The continuum percolation model is usually referred to as a random coverage process or a Boolean model, the local interaction or influence among traders is constructed by the continuum percolation, and a cluster of continuum percolation is applied to define the cluster of traders sharing the same opinion about the market. We investigate and analyze the statistical behaviors of normalized returns of the price model by some analysis methods, including power-law tail distribution analysis, chaotic behavior analysis and Zipf analysis. Moreover, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from January 1997 to July 2011, and the comparisons of return behaviors between the actual data and the simulation data are exhibited.

  19. Dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market.

    PubMed

    Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.

  20. Dynamic Evolution of Cross-Correlations in the Chinese Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management. PMID:24867071

  1. Graded Compression Stockings Prevent Post-spaceflight Orthostatic Hypotension

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Platts, S. H.; Brown, A. K.; Locke, J.; Stenger, M. B.

    2008-01-01

    Post-spaceflight orthostatic intolerance is characterized by hypotension and presyncope in 20-30% of returning astronauts. Previous data from our laboratory suggests that this is largely a result of decreased venous return. Currently, NASA astronauts wear an anti-gravity suit (AGS) which consists of inflatable air bladders over the calves, thighs and abdomen, which are typically pressurized from 0.5 to 1.5 PSI (27 to 78 mmHg). ISS crew members sometimes wear Russian Kentavr suits which consist of laced compression shorts and gaiters, providing 30 mmHg nominally. While these garments are effective during reentry, there are a number of drawbacks that make them impractical for postflight use. We studied the ability of commercially available, custom fit, graded compression stockings (Jobst, 55 mmHg at ankle to 6 mmHg at top of thigh, 25 mmHg mean compression) to prevent postflight orthostatic intolerance, hypothesizing that these garments would prevent orthostatic intolerance following short duration space flight. Crew members from a single Space Shuttle flight were tilted to 80 degrees for 10 min while wearing the stockings (n=5 males) upon arrival at the clinic (2 hrs after landing). Hemodynamic data were compared to data from all crewmembers tilted (without countermeasures) since return to flight (n=9). Two-way, repeated measures ANOVA, using the entire tilt time curve (0-10 min) show that systolic blood pressure (SBP, group effect p=0.008), stroke volume (SV, group effect p=0.003), and cardiac output (CO, group effect p=0.004) were higher in crewmembers who wore the Jobst stockings. A one-way ANOVA comparing the last minute standing also showed that SV (p=0.001) and CO (p less than 0.001) were higher and SBP tended to be higher (p=0.06) in Jobst subjects compared to controls. Control subjects had a higher rate of presyncope than Jobst subjects (3/9 vs 0/5) during the tilt on landing day. Orthostatic hypotension continues to present following spaceflight, despite

  2. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  3. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    PubMed Central

    Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  4. Scaling and memory in volatility return intervals in financial markets

    PubMed Central

    Yamasaki, Kazuko; Muchnik, Lev; Havlin, Shlomo; Bunde, Armin; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2005-01-01

    For both stock and currency markets, we study the return intervals τ between the daily volatilities of the price changes that are above a certain threshold q. We find that the distribution function Pq(τ) scales with the mean return interval \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} \\begin{equation*}{\\bar {{\\tau}}}\\end{equation*}\\end{document} as \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} \\begin{equation*}P_{q}({\\tau})={\\bar {{\\tau}}}^{-1}f({\\tau}/{\\bar {{\\tau}}})\\end{equation*}\\end{document}. The scaling function f(x) is similar in form for all seven stocks and for all seven currency databases analyzed, and f(x) is consistent with a power-law form, f(x) ∼ x-γ with γ ≈ 2. We also quantify how the conditional distribution Pq(τ|τ0) depends on the previous return interval τ0 and find that small (or large) return intervals are more likely to be followed by small (or large) return intervals. This “clustering” of the volatility return intervals is a previously unrecognized phenomenon that we relate to the long-term correlations known to be present in the volatility. PMID:15980152

  5. Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

    2008-03-01

    We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean <τ>. We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

  6. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuen, Ainslie; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

    2005-08-01

    The NYSE and NASDAQ stock markets have very different structures and there is continuing controversy over whether differences in stock price behaviour are due to market structure or company characteristics. As the influence of market structure on stock prices may be obscured by exogenous factors such as demand and supply, we hypothesize that modulation of the flow of transactions due to market operations may carry a stronger imprint of the internal market mechanism. We analyse times between consecutive transactions (ITT) for NYSE and NASDAQ stocks, and we relate the dynamical properties of the ITT with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We find a robust scale-invariant temporal organisation in the ITT of stocks which is independent of individual company characteristics and industry sector, but which depends on market structure. We find that stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit stronger correlations in their transaction timing within a trading day, compared with NYSE stocks. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing within a trading day, after the move, suggesting influences of market structure. Surprisingly, we also observe that stronger power-law correlations in the ITT are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of ITT and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ, we demonstrate that the higher correlations we find in ITT for NASDAQ stocks are matched by higher correlations in absolute price returns and by higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behaviour through information contained in transaction timing.

  7. Atlantic salmon brood stock management and breeding handbook

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kincaid, Harold L.; Stanley, Jon G.

    1989-01-01

    Anadromus runs of Atlantic salmon have been restored to the Connecticut, Merrimack, Pawcatuck, Penobscot, and St. Croix rivers in New England by the stocking of more than 8 million smolts since 1948. Fish-breeding methods have been developed that minimize inbreeding and domestication and enhance natural selection. Methods are available to advance the maturation of brood stock, control the sex of production lots and store gametes. Current hatchery practices emphasize the use of sea-run brood stock trapped upon return to the rivers and a limited number of captive brood stock and rejuvenated kelts. Fish are allowed to mature naturally, after which they are spawned and incubated artificially. Generally, 1-year smolts are produced, and excess fish are stocked as fry in headwater streams. Smolts are stocked during periods of rising water in spring. Self-release pools are planned that enable smolts to choose the emigration time. Culturists keep good records that permit evaluation of the performance of strains and the effects of breeding practices. As Atlantic salmon populations expand, culturists must use sound breeding methods that enhance biotic potential while maintaining genetic diversity and protecting unique gene pools.

  8. Quantifying the effect of investors' attention on stock market.

    PubMed

    Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yu, Chang-Rui; Han, Jing-Ti

    2017-01-01

    The investors' attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors' attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI), we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors' attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS) from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors' attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100) show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors' attention.

  9. Quantifying the effect of investors’ attention on stock market

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yu, Chang-Rui; Han, Jing-Ti

    2017-01-01

    The investors’ attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors’ attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI), we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors’ attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS) from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors’ attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100) show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors’ attention. PMID:28542216

  10. STOCK Market Differences in Correlation-Based Weighted Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Youn, Janghyuk; Lee, Junghoon; Chang, Woojin

    We examined the sector dynamics of Korean stock market in relation to the market volatility. The daily price data of 360 stocks for 5019 trading days (from January, 1990 to August, 2008) in Korean stock market are used. We performed the weighted network analysis and employed four measures: the average, the variance, the intensity, and the coherence of network weights (absolute values of stock return correlations) to investigate the network structure of Korean stock market. We performed regression analysis using the four measures in the seven major industry sectors and the market (seven sectors combined). We found that the average, the intensity, and the coherence of sector (subnetwork) weights increase as market becomes volatile. Except for the "Financials" sector, the variance of sector weights also grows as market volatility increases. Based on the four measures, we can categorize "Financials," "Information Technology" and "Industrials" sectors into one group, and "Materials" and "Consumer Discretionary" sectors into another group. We investigated the distributions of intrasector and intersector weights for each sector and found the differences in "Financials" sector are most distinct.

  11. Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation.

    PubMed

    Poterba, J M

    1998-10-01

    "This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation." excerpt

  12. Stock price analysis of sustainable foreign investment companies in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fachrudin, Khaira Amalia

    2018-03-01

    The stock price is determined by demand and supply in the stock market. Stock price reacts to information. Sustainable investment is an investment that considers environmental sustainability and human rights. This study aims to predict the probability of above average stock price by including the sustainability index as one of its variables. The population is all foreign investment companies in Indonesia. The target population is companies that distribute dividends – also as a sample. The analysis tool is a logistic regression. At 5% alpha, it was found that sustainability index did not have the probability to increase stock price average. The significant effects are free cash flow and cost of debt. However, sustainability index can increase the Negelkarke R square. The implication is that the awareness of sustainability is still necesary to be improved because from the research result it can be seen that investors only consider the risk and return.

  13. Single stock dynamics on high-frequency data: from a compressed coding perspective.

    PubMed

    Fushing, Hsieh; Chen, Shu-Chun; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

    2014-01-01

    High-frequency return, trading volume and transaction number are digitally coded via a nonparametric computing algorithm, called hierarchical factor segmentation (HFS), and then are coupled together to reveal a single stock dynamics without global state-space structural assumptions. The base-8 digital coding sequence, which is capable of revealing contrasting aggregation against sparsity of extreme events, is further compressed into a shortened sequence of state transitions. This compressed digital code sequence vividly demonstrates that the aggregation of large absolute returns is the primary driving force for stimulating both the aggregations of large trading volumes and transaction numbers. The state of system-wise synchrony is manifested with very frequent recurrence in the stock dynamics. And this data-driven dynamic mechanism is seen to correspondingly vary as the global market transiting in and out of contraction-expansion cycles. These results not only elaborate the stock dynamics of interest to a fuller extent, but also contradict some classical theories in finance. Overall this version of stock dynamics is potentially more coherent and realistic, especially when the current financial market is increasingly powered by high-frequency trading via computer algorithms, rather than by individual investors.

  14. Single Stock Dynamics on High-Frequency Data: From a Compressed Coding Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Fushing, Hsieh; Chen, Shu-Chun; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

    2014-01-01

    High-frequency return, trading volume and transaction number are digitally coded via a nonparametric computing algorithm, called hierarchical factor segmentation (HFS), and then are coupled together to reveal a single stock dynamics without global state-space structural assumptions. The base-8 digital coding sequence, which is capable of revealing contrasting aggregation against sparsity of extreme events, is further compressed into a shortened sequence of state transitions. This compressed digital code sequence vividly demonstrates that the aggregation of large absolute returns is the primary driving force for stimulating both the aggregations of large trading volumes and transaction numbers. The state of system-wise synchrony is manifested with very frequent recurrence in the stock dynamics. And this data-driven dynamic mechanism is seen to correspondingly vary as the global market transiting in and out of contraction-expansion cycles. These results not only elaborate the stock dynamics of interest to a fuller extent, but also contradict some classical theories in finance. Overall this version of stock dynamics is potentially more coherent and realistic, especially when the current financial market is increasingly powered by high-frequency trading via computer algorithms, rather than by individual investors. PMID:24586235

  15. Fractal Profit Landscape of the Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Grönlund, Andreas; Yi, Il Gu; Kim, Beom Jun

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than –q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. PMID:22558079

  16. Fractal profit landscape of the stock market.

    PubMed

    Grönlund, Andreas; Yi, Il Gu; Kim, Beom Jun

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

  17. Complex network analysis of conventional and Islamic stock market in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmadhani, Andri; Purqon, Acep; Kim, Sehyun; Kim, Soo Yong

    2015-09-01

    The rising popularity of Islamic financial products in Indonesia has become a new interesting topic to be analyzed recently. We introduce a complex network analysis to compare conventional and Islamic stock market in Indonesia. Additionally, Random Matrix Theory (RMT) has been added as a part of reference to expand the analysis of the result. Both of them are based on the cross correlation matrix of logarithmic price returns. Closing price data, which is taken from June 2011 to July 2012, is used to construct logarithmic price returns. We also introduce the threshold value using winner-take-all approach to obtain scale-free property of the network. This means that the nodes of the network that has a cross correlation coefficient below the threshold value should not be connected with an edge. As a result, we obtain 0.5 as the threshold value for all of the stock market. From the RMT analysis, we found that there is only market wide effect on both stock market and no clustering effect has been found yet. From the network analysis, both of stock market networks are dominated by the mining sector. The length of time series of closing price data must be expanded to get more valuable results, even different behaviors of the system.

  18. Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from Southeast Asian stock markets.

    PubMed

    Tharavanij, Piyapas; Siraprapasiri, Vasan; Rajchamaha, Kittichai

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the profitability of technical trading rules in the five Southeast Asian stock markets. The data cover a period of 14 years from January 2000 to December 2013. The instruments investigated are five Southeast Asian stock market indices: SET index (Thailand), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLC index (Malaysia), FTSE Straits Times index (Singapore), JSX Composite index (Indonesia), and PSE composite index (the Philippines). Trading strategies investigated include Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Directional Movement Indicator and On Balance Volume. Performances are compared to a simple Buy-and-Hold. Statistical tests are also performed. Our empirical results show a strong performance of technical trading rules in an emerging stock market of Thailand but not in a more mature stock market of Singapore. The technical trading rules also generate statistical significant returns in the Malaysian, Indonesian and the Philippine markets. However, after taking transaction costs into account, most technical trading rules do not generate net returns. This fact suggests different levels of market efficiency among Southeast Asian stock markets. This paper finds three new insights. Firstly, technical indicators does not help much in terms of market timing. Basically, traders cannot expect to buy at a relative low price and sell at a relative high price by just using technical trading rules. Secondly, technical trading rules can be beneficial to individual investors as they help them to counter the behavioral bias called disposition effects which is the tendency to sell winning stocks too soon and holding on to losing stocks too long. Thirdly, even profitable strategies could not reliably predict subsequent market directions. They make money from having a higher average profit from profitable trades than an average loss from unprofitable ones.

  19. Correlation based networks of equity returns sampled at different time horizons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tumminello, M.; di Matteo, T.; Aste, T.; Mantegna, R. N.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the planar maximally filtered graphs of the portfolio of the 300 most capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange during the time period 2001 2003. Topological properties such as the average length of shortest paths, the betweenness and the degree are computed on different planar maximally filtered graphs generated by sampling the returns at different time horizons ranging from 5 min up to one trading day. This analysis confirms that the selected stocks compose a hierarchical system progressively structuring as the sampling time horizon increases. Finally, a cluster formation, associated to economic sectors, is quantitatively investigated.

  20. Foraging under conditions of short-term exploitative competition: the case of stock traders.

    PubMed

    Saavedra, Serguei; Malmgren, R Dean; Switanek, Nicholas; Uzzi, Brian

    2013-03-22

    Theory purports that animal foraging choices evolve to maximize returns, such as net energy intake. Empirical research in both human and non-human animals reveals that individuals often attend to the foraging choices of their competitors while making their own foraging choices. Owing to the complications of gathering field data or constructing experiments, however, broad facts relating theoretically optimal and empirically realized foraging choices are only now emerging. Here, we analyse foraging choices of a cohort of professional day traders who must choose between trading the same stock multiple times in a row--patch exploitation--or switching to a different stock--patch exploration--with potentially higher returns. We measure the difference between a trader's resource intake and the competitors' expected intake within a short period of time--a difference we call short-term comparative returns. We find that traders' choices can be explained by foraging heuristics that maximize their daily short-term comparative returns. However, we find no one-best relationship between different trading choices and net income intake. This suggests that traders' choices can be short-term win oriented and, paradoxically, maybe maladaptive for absolute market returns.

  1. Soccer and stock market risk: empirical evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange.

    PubMed

    Berument, M Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak

    2013-06-01

    There is an emerging but important literature on the effects of sport events such as soccer on stock market returns. After a soccer team's win, agents discount future events more favorably and increase risk tolerance. Similarly, after a loss, risk tolerance decreases. This paper directly assesses risk tolerance after a sports event by using daily data from the three major soccer teams in Turkey (Beşiktaşç Fenerbahge and Galatasaray). Results provide evidence that risk tolerance increases after a win, but similar patterns were not found after a loss.

  2. Evidence of increment of efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market through the analysis of its variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Huerta-Quintanilla, R.; Rodríguez-Achach, M.

    2007-07-01

    It is well known that there exist statistical and structural differences between the stock markets of developed and emerging countries. In this work, and in order to find out if the efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market has been changing over time, we have performed and compared several analyses of the variations of the Mexican Stock Market index (IPC) and Dow Jones industrial average index (DJIA) for different periods of their historical daily data. We have analyzed the returns autocorrelation function (ACF) and used detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study returns variations. We also analyze the volatility, mean value and standard deviation of both markets and compare their evolution. We conclude from the overall result of these studies, that they show compelling evidence of the increment of efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market over time. The data samples analyzed here, correspond to daily values of the IPC and DJIA for the period 10/30/1978-02/28/2006.

  3. Fractality of profit landscapes and validation of time series models for stock prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, Il Gu; Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Beom Jun

    2013-08-01

    We apply a simple trading strategy for various time series of real and artificial stock prices to understand the origin of fractality observed in the resulting profit landscapes. The strategy contains only two parameters p and q, and the sell (buy) decision is made when the log return is larger (smaller) than p (-q). We discretize the unit square (p,q) ∈ [0,1] × [0,1] into the N × N square grid and the profit Π(p,q) is calculated at the center of each cell. We confirm the previous finding that local maxima in profit landscapes are scattered in a fractal-like fashion: the number M of local maxima follows the power-law form M ˜ Na, but the scaling exponent a is found to differ for different time series. From comparisons of real and artificial stock prices, we find that the fat-tailed return distribution is closely related to the exponent a ≈ 1.6 observed for real stock markets. We suggest that the fractality of profit landscape characterized by a ≈ 1.6 can be a useful measure to validate time series model for stock prices.

  4. What the 2008 stock market crash means for retirement security.

    PubMed

    Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

  5. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    PubMed

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

  6. 27 CFR 46.252 - Claim based on error on return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Claims § 46.252 Claim based on error on return. If the dealer...

  7. 27 CFR 46.252 - Claim based on error on return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Claims § 46.252 Claim based on error on return. If the dealer...

  8. 27 CFR 46.252 - Claim based on error on return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Claims § 46.252 Claim based on error on return. If the dealer...

  9. 27 CFR 46.252 - Claim based on error on return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Claims § 46.252 Claim based on error on return. If the dealer...

  10. 27 CFR 46.252 - Claim based on error on return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... PRODUCTS AND CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Claims § 46.252 Claim based on error on return. If the dealer...

  11. Movement of reservoir-stocked riverine fish between tailwaters and rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spoelstra, J.A.; Stein, R.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Marschall, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    The movement of fish from onstream impoundments into connected streams and rivers has traditionally been overlooked in fish stocking decisions but is critical to the ultimate impact of stocking riverine species into reservoirs. Hybrid saugeyes (female walleye Sander vitreus x male sauger S. canadensis) stocked into Deer Creek Reservoir, Ohio, readily move from the reservoir to the tailwater below. Downstream movement of these saugeyes from the tailwater may have consequences for native prey species and parental stocks downstream. We used fixed-station radiotelemetry to quantify the temporal movement patterns of 203 reservoir-stocked saugeyes from the tailwater of the reservoir, the stream flowing from the tailwater, and the river into which the stream flowed. From October 1998 through July 2000, most (75%) saugeyes never left the tailwater, and those that left returned 75% of the time. Overall, saugeyes spent 90% of their time in the tailwater, 7-8% of their time downstream in small streams, and 2-3% of their time farther downstream in the Scioto River (45 km downstream). No radio-tagged saugeyes moved to the Ohio River (155 km downstream). The probability of downstream movement generally increased with increasing flow and when dissolved oxygen dropped to lethal levels in summer. The probability of movement was highest in winter and spring, when it was probably related to spawning, and low in summer (except when dissolved oxygen was low) and fall. The patterns of movement seemed to reflect the relative suitability of tailwater over stream habitat. The predominant use of and return to tailwater habitat after downstream movement limited overall stream and river residence time. Although the daily movement probability for an individual was low, when we apply these rates to all of the stocked saugeyes in the Ohio River drainage, we cannot safely conclude that only small numbers move from reservoir tailwaters to downstream river systems. We recommend that managers

  12. The effects of common risk factors on stock returns: A detrended cross-correlation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Yang, Bingchan

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we investigate the cross-correlations between Fama and French three factors and the return of American industries on the basis of cross-correlation statistic test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). Qualitatively, we find that the return series of Fama and French three factors and American industries were overall significantly cross-correlated based on the analysis of a statistic. Quantitatively, we find that the cross-correlations between three factors and the return of American industries were strongly multifractal, and applying MF-DCCA we also investigate the cross-correlation of industry returns and residuals. We find that there exists multifractality of industry returns and residuals. The result of correlation coefficients we can verify that there exist other factors which influence the industry returns except Fama three factors.

  13. Measuring multifractality of stock price fluctuation using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Jin, Xiu

    2009-06-01

    Analyzing the Shanghai stock price index daily returns using MF-DFA method, it is found that there are two different types of sources for multifractality in time series, namely, fat-tailed probability distributions and non-linear temporal correlations. Based on that, a sliding window of 240 frequency data in 5 trading days was used to study stock price index fluctuation. It is found that when the stock price index fluctuates sharply, a strong variability is clearly characterized by the generalized Hurst exponents h(q). Therefore, two measures, Δh and σ, based on generalized Hurst exponents were proposed to compare financial risks before and after Price Limits and Reform of Non-tradable Shares. The empirical results verify the validity of the measures, and this has led to a better understanding of complex stock markets.

  14. High-frequency stock linkage and multi-dimensional stationary processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xi; Bao, Si; Chen, Jingchao

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, China's stock market has experienced dramatic fluctuations; in particular, in the second half of 2014 and 2015, the market rose sharply and fell quickly. Many classical financial phenomena, such as stock plate linkage, appeared repeatedly during this period. In general, these phenomena have usually been studied using daily-level data or minute-level data. Our paper focuses on the linkage phenomenon in Chinese stock 5-second-level data during this extremely volatile period. The method used to select the linkage points and the arbitrage strategy are both based on multi-dimensional stationary processes. A new program method for testing the multi-dimensional stationary process is proposed in our paper, and the detailed program is presented in the paper's appendix. Because of the existence of the stationary process, the strategy's logarithmic cumulative average return will converge under the condition of the strong ergodic theorem, and this ensures the effectiveness of the stocks' linkage points and the more stable statistical arbitrage strategy.

  15. Network formation in a multi-asset artificial stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei; Wang, Chao

    2018-04-01

    A multi-asset artificial stock market is developed. In the market, stocks are assigned to a number of sectors and traded by heterogeneous investors. The mechanism of continuous double auction is employed to clear order book and form daily closed prices. Simulation results of prices at the sector level show an intra-sector similarity and inter-sector distinctiveness, and returns of individual stocks have stylized facts that are ubiquitous in the real-world stock market. We find that the market risk factor has critical impact on both network topology transition and connection formation, and that sector risk factors account for the formation of intra-sector links and sector-based local interaction. In addition, the number of community in threshold-based networks is correlated negatively and positively with the value of correlation coefficients and the ratio of intra-sector links, which are respectively determined by intensity of sector risk factors and the number of sectors.

  16. Geographical distributions of lake trout strains stocked in Lake Ontario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Elrod, Joseph H.; O'Gorman, Robert; Schneider, Clifford P.; Schaner, Ted

    1996-01-01

    Geographical distributions of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) stocked at seven locations in U.S. waters and at four locations in Canadian waters of Lake Ontario were determined from fish caught with gill nets in September in 17 areas of U.S. waters and at 10 fixed locations in Canadian waters in 1986-95. For fish of a given strain stocked at a given location, geographical distributions were not different for immature males and immature females or for mature males and mature females. The proportion of total catch at the three locations nearest the stocking location was higher for mature fish than for immature fish in all 24 available comparisons (sexes combined) and was greater for fish stocked as yearlings than for those stocked as fingerlings in all eight comparisons. Mature fish were relatively widely dispersed from stocking locations indicating that their tendency to return to stocking locations for spawning was weak, and there was no appreciable difference in this tendency among strains. Mature lake trout were uniformly distributed among sampling locations, and the strain composition at stocking locations generally reflected the stocking history 5 to 6 years earlier. Few lake trout moved across Lake Ontario between the north and south shores or between the eastern outlet basin and the main lake basin. Limited dispersal from stocking sites supports the concept of stocking different genetic strains in various parts of the lake with the attributes of each strain selected to match environmental conditions in the portion of the lake where it is stocked.

  17. Comparing minimum spanning trees of the Italian stock market using returns and volumes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coletti, Paolo

    2016-12-01

    We have built the network of the top 100 Italian quoted companies in the decade 2001-2011 using four different methods, comparing the resulting minimum spanning trees for methods and industry sectors. Our starting method is based on Person's correlation of log-returns used by several other authors in the last decade. The second one is based on the correlation of symbolized log-returns, the third of log-returns and traded money and the fourth one uses a combination of log-returns with traded money. We show that some sectors correspond to the network's clusters while others are scattered, in particular the trading and apparel sectors. We analyze the different graph's measures for the four methods showing that the introduction of volumes induces larger distances and more homogeneous trees without big clusters.

  18. Impact of global financial crisis on stylized facts between energy markets and stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leng, Tan Kim; Cheong, Chin Wen; Hooi, Tan Siow

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the stylized facts is extremely important and has becomes a hot issue nowadays. However, recent global financial crisis that started from United States had spread all over the world and adversely affected the commodities and financial sectors of both developed and developing countries. This paper tends to examine the impact of crisis on stylized facts between energy and stock markets using ARCH-family models based on the experience over 2008 global financial crisis. Empirical results denote that there is long lasting, persists and positively significant the autocorrelation function of absolute returns and their squares in both markets for before and during crisis. Besides that, leverage effects are found in stock markets whereby bad news has a greater impact on volatility than good news for both before and during crisis. However, crisis does not indicate any impact on risk-return tradeoff for both energy and stock markets. For forecasting evaluations, GARCH model and FIAPARCH model indicate superior out of sample forecasts for before and during crisis respectively.

  19. Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Yong; Luo, Yong; Xiong, Jie; Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2013-10-01

    The impact of monetary policy changes on the monetary market and stock market in China is investigated in this study. The changes of two major monetary policies, the interest rate and required reserve ratio, are analyzed in a study period covering seven years on the interbank monetary market and Shanghai stock market. We find that the monetary market is related to the macro economy trend and we also find that the monetary change surprises both of lowering and raising bring significant impacts to the two markets and the two markets respond to the changes differently. The results suggest that the impact of fluctuations is much larger for raising policy changes than lowering changes in the monetary market on policy announcing and effective dates. This is consistent with the “sign effect”, i.e. bad news brings a greater impact than good news. By studying the event window of each policy change, we also find that the “sign effect” still exists before and after each change in the monetary market. A relatively larger fluctuation is observed before the event date, which indicates that the monetary market might have a certain ability to predict a potential monetary change, while it is kept secret by the central bank before official announcement. In the stock market, we investigate how the returns and spreads of the Shanghai stock market index respond to the monetary changes. Evidences suggest the stock market is influenced but in a different way than the monetary market. The climbing of returns after the event dates for the lowering policy agrees with the theory that lowering changes can provide a monetary supply to boost the market and drive the stock returns higher but with a delay of 2 to 3 trading days on average. While in the bear market, the lowering policy brings larger volatility to the market on average than the raising ones. These empirical findings are useful for policymakers to understand how monetary policy changes impact the monetary and stock markets

  20. Market impact and structure dynamics of the Chinese stock market based on partial correlation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xing; Qiu, Tian; Chen, Guang; Zhong, Li-Xin; Wu, Xiao-Run

    2017-04-01

    Partial correlation analysis is employed to study the market impact on the Chinese stock market from both the native and external markets. Whereas the native market index is observed to have a great impact on the market correlations for both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, some external stock indices of the United States, European and Asian stock markets show a slight influence on the Chinese market. The individual stock can be affected by different economic sectors, but the dominant influence is from the sector the stock itself belongs to or closely related to, and the finance and insurance sector shows a weaker correlation with other economic sectors. Moreover, the market structure similarity exhibits a negative correlation with the price return in most time, and the structure similarity decays with the time interval.

  1. Growth and smolting in lower-mode Atlantic Salmon stocked into the Penobscot River, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zydlewski, Joseph D.; O'Malley, Andrew; Cox, Oliver; Ruksznis, Peter; Trial, Joan G.

    2014-01-01

    Restoration of Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar in Maine has relied on hatchery-produced fry and smolts for critical stocking strategies. Stocking fry minimizes domestication selection, but these fish have poor survival. Conversely, stocked smolts have little freshwater experience but provide higher adult returns. Lower-mode (LM) fish, those not growing fast enough to ensure smolting by the time of stocking, are a by-product of the smolt program and are an intermediate hatchery product. From 2002 to 2009, between 70,000 and 170,000 marked LM Atlantic Salmon were stocked into the Pleasant River (a tributary in the Penobscot River drainage, Maine) in late September to early October. These fish were recaptured as actively migrating smolts (screw trapping), as nonmigrants (electrofishing), and as returning adults to the Penobscot River (Veazie Dam trap). Fork length (FL) was measured and a scale sample was taken to retrospectively estimate FL at winter annulus one (FW1) using the intercept-corrected direct proportion model. The LM fish were observed to migrate as age-1, age-2, and infrequently as age-3 smolts. Those migrating as age-1 smolts had a distinctly larger estimated FL at FW1 (>112 mm) than those that remained in the river for at least one additional year. At the time of migration, age-2 and age-3 smolts were substantially larger than age-1 smolts. Returning adult Atlantic Salmon of LM origin had estimated FLs at FW1 that corresponded to smolt age (greater FL for age 1 than age 2). The LM product produces both age-1 and age-2 smolts that have greater freshwater experience than hatchery smolts and may have growth and fitness advantages. The data from this study will allow managers to better assess the probability of smolting age and manipulate hatchery growth rates to produce a targeted-size LM product.

  2. Empirical behavior of a world stock index from intra-day to monthly time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breymann, W.; Lüthi, D. R.; Platen, E.

    2009-10-01

    Most of the papers that study the distributional and fractal properties of financial instruments focus on stock prices or foreign exchange rates. This typically leads to mixed results concerning the distributions of log-returns and some multi-fractal properties of exchange rates, stock prices, and regional indices. This paper uses a well diversified world stock index as the central object of analysis. Such index approximates the growth optimal portfolio, which is demonstrated under the benchmark approach, it is the ideal reference unit for studying basic securities. When denominating this world index in units of a given currency, one measures the movements of the currency against the entire market. This provides a least disturbed observation of the currency dynamics. In this manner, one can expect to disentangle, e.g., the superposition of the two currencies involved in an exchange rate. This benchmark approach to the empirical analysis of financial data allows us to establish remarkable stylized facts. Most important is the observation that the repeatedly documented multi-fractal appearance of financial time series is very weak and much less pronounced than the deviation of the mono-scaling properties from Brownian-motion type scaling. The generalized Hurst exponent H(2) assumes typical values between 0.55 and 0.6. Accordingly, autocorrelations of log-returns decay according to a power law, and the quadratic variation vanishes when going to vanishing observation time step size. Furthermore, one can identify the Student t distribution as the log-return distribution of a well-diversified world stock index for long time horizons when a long enough data series is used for estimation. The study of dependence properties, finally, reveals that jumps at daily horizon originate primarily in the stock market while at 5min horizon they originate in the foreign exchange market. The principal message of the empirical analysis is that there is evidence that a diffusion model

  3. 26 CFR 1.338-8 - Asset and stock consistency.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... section, no election under section 338 is deemed made or required with respect to target or any target... from target during the target consistency period and target is a subsidiary in a consolidated group. In... the consolidated return regulations in the basis of target stock and may reduce gain from the sale of...

  4. 26 CFR 1.338-8 - Asset and stock consistency.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... section, no election under section 338 is deemed made or required with respect to target or any target... from target during the target consistency period and target is a subsidiary in a consolidated group. In... the consolidated return regulations in the basis of target stock and may reduce gain from the sale of...

  5. 26 CFR 1.338-8 - Asset and stock consistency.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... section, no election under section 338 is deemed made or required with respect to target or any target... from target during the target consistency period and target is a subsidiary in a consolidated group. In... the consolidated return regulations in the basis of target stock and may reduce gain from the sale of...

  6. Probability distribution of financial returns in a model of multiplicative Brownian motion with stochastic diffusion coefficient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Antonio

    2005-03-01

    It is well-known that the mathematical theory of Brownian motion was first developed in the Ph. D. thesis of Louis Bachelier for the French stock market before Einstein [1]. In Ref. [2] we studied the so-called Heston model, where the stock-price dynamics is governed by multiplicative Brownian motion with stochastic diffusion coefficient. We solved the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation exactly and found an analytic formula for the time-dependent probability distribution of stock price changes (returns). The formula interpolates between the exponential (tent-shaped) distribution for short time lags and the Gaussian (parabolic) distribution for long time lags. The theoretical formula agrees very well with the actual stock-market data ranging from the Dow-Jones index [2] to individual companies [3], such as Microsoft, Intel, etc. [] [1] Louis Bachelier, ``Th'eorie de la sp'eculation,'' Annales Scientifiques de l''Ecole Normale Sup'erieure, III-17:21-86 (1900).[] [2] A. A. Dragulescu and V. M. Yakovenko, ``Probability distribution of returns in the Heston model with stochastic volatility,'' Quantitative Finance 2, 443--453 (2002); Erratum 3, C15 (2003). [cond-mat/0203046] [] [3] A. C. Silva, R. E. Prange, and V. M. Yakovenko, ``Exponential distribution of financial returns at mesoscopic time lags: a new stylized fact,'' Physica A 344, 227--235 (2004). [cond-mat/0401225

  7. Dynamical Stochastic Processes of Returns in Financial Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kyungsik; Kim, Soo Yong; Lim, Gyuchang; Zhou, Junyuan; Yoon, Seung-Min

    2006-03-01

    We show how the evolution of probability distribution functions of the returns from the tick data of the Korean treasury bond futures (KTB) and the S&P 500 stock index can be described by means of the Fokker-Planck equation. We derive the Fokker- Planck equation from the estimated Kramers-Moyal coefficients estimated directly from the empirical data. By analyzing the statistics of the returns, we present the quantitative deterministic and random influences on both financial time series, for which we can give a simple physical interpretation. Finally, we remark that the diffusion coefficient should be significantly considered to make a portfolio.

  8. Migratory Patterns of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-flowing River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eiler, John H.; Evans, Allison N.; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002–2004. Most (97.5%) of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28–40 km d-1) compared to upper basin stocks (52–62 km d-1). Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between “hares” (faster fish becoming slower) and “tortoises” (slow but steady fish) explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation

  9. The use of the Hurst exponent to predict changes in trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domino, Krzysztof

    2011-01-01

    The local properties of the time series of the evolution of share prices of 126 significant companies traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the period between 1991-2008 have been investigated. The analysis was applied to daily financial returns. I have used the local DFA to obtain the Hurst exponent (diffusion coefficient) while searching for negative correlations by which changes of long-term trends would be effected. A certain evidence, proving that after the signature of anti-correlation-the drop in the Hurst exponent-the change in the trend and in the return rate of an investment is probable, was pointed out. Hence after further investigation this method may be useful as a part of an investment strategy. As the Warsaw Stock Exchange is relatively smaller and younger than other significant world Stock Exchanges-and as the developing market is less efficient-the generalization for others markets needs further investigation.

  10. Identifying the critical financial ratios for stocks evaluation: A fuzzy delphi approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhtar, Mazura; Shuib, Adibah; Mohamad, Daud

    2014-12-01

    Stocks evaluation has always been an interesting and challenging problem for both researchers and practitioners. Generally, the evaluation can be made based on a set of financial ratios. Nevertheless, there are a variety of financial ratios that can be considered and if all ratios in the set are placed into the evaluation process, data collection would be more difficult and time consuming. Thus, the objective of this paper is to identify the most important financial ratios upon which to focus in order to evaluate the stock's performance. For this purpose, a survey was carried out using an approach which is based on an expert judgement, namely the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM). The results of this study indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share and debt to equity are the most important ratios.

  11. Asymmetry of price returns-Analysis and perspectives from a non-extensive statistical physics point of view.

    PubMed

    Bil, Łukasz; Grech, Dariusz; Zienowicz, Magdalena

    2017-01-01

    We study how the approach grounded on non-extensive statistical physics can be applied to describe and distinguish different stages of the stock and money market development. A particular attention is given to asymmetric behavior of fat tailed distributions of positive and negative returns. A new method to measure this asymmetry is proposed. It is based on the value of the non-extensive Tsallis parameter q. The new quantifier of the relative asymmetry level between tails in terms of the Tsallis parameters q± is provided to analyze the effect of memory in data caused by nonlinear autocorrelations. The presented analysis takes into account data of separate stocks from the main developing stock market in Europe, i.e., the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) in Poland and-for comparison-data from the most mature money market (Forex). It is argued that the proposed new quantifier is able to describe the stage of market development and its robustness to speculation. The main strength is put on a description and interpretation of the asymmetry between statistical properties of positive and negative returns for various stocks and for diversified time-lags Δt of data counting. The particular caution in this context is addressed to the difference between intraday and interday returns. Our search is extended to study memory effects and their dependence on the quotation frequency for similar large companies-owners of food-industrial retail supermarkets acting on both Polish and European markets (Eurocash, Jeronimo-Martins, Carrefour, Tesco)-but traded on various European stock markets of diversified economical maturity (respectively in Warsaw, Lisbon, Paris and London). The latter analysis seems to indicate quantitatively that stocks from the same economic sector traded on different markets within European Union (EU) may be a target of diversified level of speculations involved in trading independently on the true economic situation of the company. Our work thus gives indications

  12. On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pipień, M.

    2008-09-01

    We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

  13. Equation-based model for the stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  14. 18 CFR 2.15 - Specified reasonable rate of return.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... average cost of long-term debt and preferred stock for the year, and the cost of common equity shall be... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Specified reasonable rate of return. 2.15 Section 2.15 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY...

  15. Migratory Patterns of Wild Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-Flowing River Basin

    PubMed Central

    Eiler, John H.; Evans, Allison N.; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002–2004. Most (97.5%) of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28–40 km d-1) compared to upper basin stocks (52–62 km d-1). Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between “hares” (faster fish becoming slower) and “tortoises” (slow but steady fish) explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation

  16. Complexity and multifractal behaviors of multiscale-continuum percolation financial system for Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yayun; Wang, Jun; Xu, Kaixuan

    2017-04-01

    A new financial agent-based time series model is developed and investigated by multiscale-continuum percolation system, which can be viewed as an extended version of continuum percolation system. In this financial model, for different parameters of proportion and density, two Poisson point processes (where the radii of points represent the ability of receiving or transmitting information among investors) are applied to model a random stock price process, in an attempt to investigate the fluctuation dynamics of the financial market. To validate its effectiveness and rationality, we compare the statistical behaviors and the multifractal behaviors of the simulated data derived from the proposed model with those of the real stock markets. Further, the multiscale sample entropy analysis is employed to study the complexity of the returns, and the cross-sample entropy analysis is applied to measure the degree of asynchrony of return autocorrelation time series. The empirical results indicate that the proposed financial model can simulate and reproduce some significant characteristics of the real stock markets to a certain extent.

  17. On The Value at Risk Using Bayesian Mixture Laplace Autoregressive Approach for Modelling the Islamic Stock Risk Investment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miftahurrohmah, Brina; Iriawan, Nur; Fithriasari, Kartika

    2017-06-01

    Stocks are known as the financial instruments traded in the capital market which have a high level of risk. Their risks are indicated by their uncertainty of their return which have to be accepted by investors in the future. The higher the risk to be faced, the higher the return would be gained. Therefore, the measurements need to be made against the risk. Value at Risk (VaR) as the most popular risk measurement method, is frequently ignore when the pattern of return is not uni-modal Normal. The calculation of the risks using VaR method with the Normal Mixture Autoregressive (MNAR) approach has been considered. This paper proposes VaR method couple with the Mixture Laplace Autoregressive (MLAR) that would be implemented for analysing the first three biggest capitalization Islamic stock return in JII, namely PT. Astra International Tbk (ASII), PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLMK), and PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR). Parameter estimation is performed by employing Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches.

  18. Analysis of stock investment selection based on CAPM using covariance and genetic algorithm approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukono; Susanti, D.; Najmia, M.; Lesmana, E.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.; Putra, A. S.

    2018-03-01

    Investment is one of the economic growth factors of countries, especially in Indonesia. Stocks is a form of investment, which is liquid. In determining the stock investment decisions which need to be considered by investors is to choose stocks that can generate maximum returns with a minimum risk level. Therefore, we need to know how to allocate the capital which may give the optimal benefit. This study discusses the issue of stock investment based on CAPM which is estimated using covariance and Genetic Algorithm approach. It is assumed that the stocks analyzed follow the CAPM model. To do the estimation of beta parameter on CAPM equation is done by two approach, first is to be represented by covariance approach, and second with genetic algorithm optimization. As a numerical illustration, in this paper analyzed ten stocks traded on the capital market in Indonesia. The results of the analysis show that estimation of beta parameters using covariance and genetic algorithm approach, give the same decision, that is, six underpriced stocks with buying decision, and four overpriced stocks with a sales decision. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that the results can be used as a consideration for investors buying six under-priced stocks, and selling four overpriced stocks.

  19. To stock or not to stock? Assessing restoration potential of a remnant American shad spawning run with hatchery supplementation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, Michael M.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    Hatchery supplementation has been widely used as a restoration technique for American Shad Alosa sapidissima on the East Coast of the USA, but results have been equivocal. In the Penobscot River, Maine, dam removals and other improvements to fish passage will likely reestablish access to the majority of this species’ historic spawning habitat. Additional efforts being considered include the stocking of larval American Shad. The decision about whether to stock a river system undergoing restoration should be made after evaluating the probability of natural recolonization and examining the costs and benefits of potentially accelerating recovery using a stocking program. However, appropriate evaluation can be confounded by a dearth of information about the starting population size and age structure of the remnant American Shad spawning run in the river. We used the Penobscot River as a case study to assess the theoretical sensitivity of recovery time to either scenario (stocking or not) by building a deterministic model of an American Shad population. This model is based on the best available estimates of size at age, fecundity, rate of iteroparity, and recruitment. Density dependence was imposed, such that the population reached a plateau at an arbitrary recovery goal of 633,000 spawning adults. Stocking had a strong accelerating effect on the time to modeled recovery (as measured by the time to reach 50% of the recovery goal) in the base model, but stocking had diminishing effects with larger population sizes. There is a diminishing return to stocking when the starting population is modestly increased. With a low starting population (a spawning run of 1,000), supplementation with 12 million larvae annually accelerated modeled recovery by 12 years. Only a 2-year acceleration was observed if the starting population was 15,000. Such a heuristic model may aid managers in assessing the costs and benefits of stocking by incorporating a structured decision framework.

  20. Heterogeneous information-based artificial stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pastore, S.; Ponta, L.; Cincotti, S.

    2010-05-01

    In this paper, an information-based artificial stock market is considered. The market is populated by heterogeneous agents that are seen as nodes of a sparsely connected graph. Agents trade a risky asset in exchange for cash. Besides the amount of cash and assets owned, each agent is characterized by a sentiment. Moreover, agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are identified by the graph. Interactions are unidirectional and are supplied with heterogeneous weights. The agent's trading decision is based on sentiment and, consequently, the stock price process depends on the propagation of information among the interacting agents, on budget constraints and on market feedback. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price process at the intersection of the demand and supply curves. Both closed- and open-market conditions are considered. The results point out the validity of the proposed model of information exchange among agents and are helpful for understanding the role of information in real markets. Under closed market conditions, the interaction among agents' sentiments yields a price process that reproduces the main stylized facts of real markets, e.g. the fat tails of the returns distributions and the clustering of volatility. Within open-market conditions, i.e. with an external cash inflow that results in asset price inflation, also the unitary root stylized fact is reproduced by the artificial stock market. Finally, the effects of model parameters on the properties of the artificial stock market are also addressed.

  1. The Dow is Killing Me: Risky Health Behaviors and the Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Cotti, Chad; Dunn, Richard A; Tefft, Nathan

    2015-07-01

    We investigate how risky health behaviors and self-reported health vary with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and during stock market crashes. Because stock market indices are leading indicators of economic performance, this research contributes to our understanding of the macroeconomic determinants of health. Existing studies typically rely on the unemployment rate to proxy for economic performance, but this measure captures only one of many channels through which the economic environment may influence individual health decisions. We find that large, negative monthly DJIA returns, decreases in the level of the DJIA, and stock market crashes are widely associated with worsening self-reported mental health and more cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and fatal car accidents involving alcohol. These results are consistent with predictions from rational addiction models and have implications for research on the association between consumption and stock prices. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Cross-sectional fluctuation scaling in the high-frequency illiquidity of Chinese stocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Qing; Gao, Xing-Lu; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2018-03-01

    Taylor's law of temporal and ensemble fluctuation scaling has been ubiquitously observed in diverse complex systems including financial markets. Stock illiquidity is an important nonadditive financial quantity, which is found to comply with Taylor's temporal fluctuation scaling law. In this paper, we perform the cross-sectional analysis of the 1 min high-frequency illiquidity time series of Chinese stocks and unveil the presence of Taylor's law of ensemble fluctuation scaling. The estimated daily Taylor scaling exponent fluctuates around 1.442. We find that Taylor's scaling exponents of stock illiquidity do not relate to the ensemble mean and ensemble variety of returns. Our analysis uncovers a new scaling law of financial markets and might stimulate further investigations for a better understanding of financial markets' dynamics.

  3. Emergence and temporal structure of Lead-Lag correlations in collective stock dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Lisi; You, Daming; Jiang, Xin; Chen, Wei

    2018-07-01

    Understanding the correlations among stock returns is crucial for reducing the risk of investment in stock markets. As an important stylized correlation, lead-lag effect plays a major role in analyzing market volatility and deriving trading strategies. Here, we explore historical lead-lag relationships among stocks in the Chinese stock market. Strongly positive lagged correlations can be empirically observed. We demonstrate this lead-lag phenomenon is not constant but temporally emerges during certain periods. By introducing moving time window method, we transform the lead-lag dynamics into a series of asymmetric lagged correlation matrices. Dynamic lead-lag structures are uncovered in the form of temporal network structures. We find that the size of lead-lag group experienced a rapid drop during the year 2012, which signaled a re-balance of the stock market. On the daily timescale, we find the lead-lag structure exhibits several persistent patterns, which can be characterized by the Jaccard matrix. We show significant market events can be distinguished in the Jaccard matrix diagram. Taken together, we study an integration of all the temporal networks and identify several leading stock sectors, which are in accordance with the common Chinese economic fundamentals.

  4. Correlation and volatility in an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulkarni, Varsha; Deo, Nivedita

    2007-11-01

    We examine the volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of correlation of stocks and quantify the volatility using the random matrix approach. First we discuss trends observed in the pattern of stock prices in the Bombay Stock Exchange for the three-year period 2000 2002. Random matrix analysis is then applied to study the relationship between the coupling of stocks and volatility. The study uses daily returns of 70 stocks for successive time windows of length 85 days for the year 2001. We compare the properties of matrix C of correlations between price fluctuations in time regimes characterized by different volatilities. Our analyses reveal that (i) the largest (deviating) eigenvalue of C correlates highly with the volatility of the index, (ii) there is a shift in the distribution of the components of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue across regimes of different volatilities, (iii) the inverse participation ratio for this eigenvector anti-correlates significantly with the market fluctuations and finally, (iv) this eigenvector of C can be used to set up a Correlation Index, CI whose temporal evolution is significantly correlated with the volatility of the overall market index.

  5. Quantifying the Behavior of Stock Correlations Under Market Stress

    PubMed Central

    Preis, Tobias; Kenett, Dror Y.; Stanley, H. Eugene; Helbing, Dirk; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2012-01-01

    Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios. PMID:23082242

  6. 26 CFR 1.6045-1T - Returns of information of brokers and barter exchanges (temporary).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... paragraph (g)(1)(i) of this section. Therefore, unless X is an FFI (as defined in § 1.1471-1(b)(47)) that is... (B) A sale with respect to which a return is not required by applying the rules of § 1.6049-4(c)(4... a stock transfer agent (as described in § 1.6045-1(b)(iv)) with respect to a redemption of stock of...

  7. Statistical analysis on multifractal detrended cross-correlation coefficient for return interval by oriented percolation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Wei; Wang, Jun

    2015-06-01

    We investigate and quantify the multifractal detrended cross-correlation of return interval series for Chinese stock markets and a proposed price model, the price model is established by oriented percolation. The return interval describes the waiting time between two successive price volatilities which are above some threshold, the present work is an attempt to quantify the level of multifractal detrended cross-correlation for the return intervals. Further, the concept of MF-DCCA coefficient of return intervals is introduced, and the corresponding empirical research is performed. The empirical results show that the return intervals of SSE and SZSE are weakly positive multifractal power-law cross-correlated, and exhibit the fluctuation patterns of MF-DCCA coefficients. The similar behaviors of return intervals for the price model is also demonstrated.

  8. Intelligent Ensemble Forecasting System of Stock Market Fluctuations Based on Symetric and Asymetric Wavelet Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim; Boukadoum, Mounir

    2015-08-01

    We present a new ensemble system for stock market returns prediction where continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is used to analyze return series and backpropagation neural networks (BPNNs) for processing CWT-based coefficients, determining the optimal ensemble weights, and providing final forecasts. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used for finding optimal weights and biases for each BPNN. To capture symmetry/asymmetry in the underlying data, three wavelet functions with different shapes are adopted. The proposed ensemble system was tested on three Asian stock markets: The Hang Seng, KOSPI, and Taiwan stock market data. Three statistical metrics were used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy; including, mean of absolute errors (MAE), root mean of squared errors (RMSE), and mean of absolute deviations (MADs). Experimental results showed that our proposed ensemble system outperformed the individual CWT-ANN models each with different wavelet function. In addition, the proposed ensemble system outperformed the conventional autoregressive moving average process. As a result, the proposed ensemble system is suitable to capture symmetry/asymmetry in financial data fluctuations for better prediction accuracy.

  9. Finding hidden periodic signals in time series - an application to stock prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Shea, Michael

    2014-03-01

    Data in the form of time series appear in many areas of science. In cases where the periodicity is apparent and the only other contribution to the time series is stochastic in origin, the data can be `folded' to improve signal to noise and this has been done for light curves of variable stars with the folding resulting in a cleaner light curve signal. Stock index prices versus time are classic examples of time series. Repeating patterns have been claimed by many workers and include unusually large returns on small-cap stocks during the month of January, and small returns on the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJIA) in the months June through September compared to the rest of the year. Such observations imply that these prices have a periodic component. We investigate this for the DJIA. If such a component exists it is hidden in a large non-periodic variation and a large stochastic variation. We show how to extract this periodic component and for the first time reveal its yearly (averaged) shape. This periodic component leads directly to the `Sell in May and buy at Halloween' adage. We also drill down and show that this yearly variation emerges from approximately half of the underlying stocks making up the DJIA index.

  10. Dynamical Analysis of Stock Market Instability by Cross-correlation Matrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2016-08-01

    We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the cross-correlations, crosscorrelation matrices are calculated with a rolling window of 400 days. To quantify the volatile market stages where the potential risk is high, we apply the principal components analysis and measure the cumulative risk fraction (CRF), which is the system variance associated with the first few principal components. From the CRF, we detected three volatile market stages corresponding to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 Tohoku Region Pacific Coast Earthquake, and the FRB QE3 reduction observation in the study period. We further apply the random matrix theory for the risk analysis and find that the first eigenvector is more equally de-localized when the market is volatile.

  11. Invariance in the recurrence of large returns and the validation of models of price dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Lo-Bin; Geman, Stuart; Hsieh, Fushing; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

    2013-08-01

    Starting from a robust, nonparametric definition of large returns (“excursions”), we study the statistics of their occurrences, focusing on the recurrence process. The empirical waiting-time distribution between excursions is remarkably invariant to year, stock, and scale (return interval). This invariance is related to self-similarity of the marginal distributions of returns, but the excursion waiting-time distribution is a function of the entire return process and not just its univariate probabilities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, market-time transformations based on volume or trades, and generalized (Lévy) random-walk models all fail to fit the statistical structure of excursions.

  12. U.S. stock market interaction network as learned by the Boltzmann machine

    DOE PAGES

    Borysov, Stanislav S.; Roudi, Yasser; Balatsky, Alexander V.

    2015-12-07

    Here, we study historical dynamics of joint equilibrium distribution of stock returns in the U.S. stock market using the Boltzmann distribution model being parametrized by external fields and pairwise couplings. Within Boltzmann learning framework for statistical inference, we analyze historical behavior of the parameters inferred using exact and approximate learning algorithms. Since the model and inference methods require use of binary variables, effect of this mapping of continuous returns to the discrete domain is studied. The presented results show that binarization preserves the correlation structure of the market. Properties of distributions of external fields and couplings as well as themore » market interaction network and industry sector clustering structure are studied for different historical dates and moving window sizes. We demonstrate that the observed positive heavy tail in distribution of couplings is related to the sparse clustering structure of the market. We also show that discrepancies between the model’s parameters might be used as a precursor of financial instabilities.« less

  13. The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

  14. The stability of portfolio investment in stock crashes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Tang, Nian-Sheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2016-08-01

    The stability of portfolio investment in stock market crashes with Markowitz portfolio is investigated by the method of theoretical and empirical simulation. From numerical simulation of the mean escape time (MET), we conclude that: (i) The increasing number (Np) of stocks in Markowitz portfolio induces a maximum in the curve of MET versus the initial position; (ii) A critical value of Np in the behavior of MET versus the long-run variance or amplitude of volatility fluctuations maximumlly enhances the stability of portfolio investment. When Np takes value below the critical value, the increasing Np enhances the stability of portfolio investment, but restrains it when Np takes value above the critical value. In addition, a good agreement of both the MET and probability density functions of returns is found between real data and theoretical results.

  15. Dynamical stochastic processes of returns in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Yoon, Seong-Min; Jung, Jae-Won; Kim, Kyungsik

    2007-03-01

    We study the evolution of probability distribution functions of returns, from the tick data of the Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures and the S&P 500 stock index, which can be described by means of the Fokker-Planck equation. We show that the Fokker-Planck equation and the Langevin equation from the estimated Kramers-Moyal coefficients can be estimated directly from the empirical data. By analyzing the statistics of the returns, we present quantitatively the deterministic and random influences on financial time series for both markets, for which we can give a simple physical interpretation. We particularly focus on the diffusion coefficient, which may be important for the creation of a portfolio.

  16. The foreign exchange market: return distributions, multifractality, anomalous multifractality and the Epps effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drożdż, Stanisław; Kwapień, Jarosław; Oświȩcimka, Paweł; Rak, Rafał

    2010-10-01

    We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that the exchange rate return fluctuations for all of the pairs considered are well described by the non-extensive statistics in terms of q-Gaussians. There exist some small quantitative variations in the non-extensivity q-parameter values for different exchange rates (which depend also on the time scales studied), and this can be related to the importance of a given exchange rate in the world's currency trade. Temporal correlations organize the series of returns such that they develop the multifractal characteristics for all of the exchange rates, with a varying degree of symmetry of the singularity spectrum f(α), however. The most symmetric spectrum is identified for the GBP/USD. We also form time series of triangular residual returns and find that the distributions of their fluctuations develop disproportionately heavier tails as compared to small fluctuations, which excludes description in terms of q-Gaussians. The multifractal characteristics of these residual returns reveal such anomalous properties as negative singularity exponents and even negative singularity spectra. Such anomalous multifractal measures have so far been considered in the literature in connection with diffusion-limited aggregation and with turbulence. Studying the cross-correlations among different exchange rates, we found that market inefficiency on short time scales leads to the occurrence of the Epps effect on much longer time scales, but comparable to the ones for the stock market. Although the currency market is much more liquid than the stock markets and has a much greater transaction frequency, the building up of correlations takes up to several hours—a duration that does not differ much from what is observed in the stock markets. This may suggest

  17. Statistical regularities in the return intervals of volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, F.; Weber, P.; Yamasaki, K.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2007-01-01

    We discuss recent results concerning statistical regularities in the return intervals of volatility in financial markets. In particular, we show how the analysis of volatility return intervals, defined as the time between two volatilities larger than a given threshold, can help to get a better understanding of the behavior of financial time series. We find scaling in the distribution of return intervals for thresholds ranging over a factor of 25, from 0.6 to 15 standard deviations, and also for various time windows from one minute up to 390 min (an entire trading day). Moreover, these results are universal for different stocks, commodities, interest rates as well as currencies. We also analyze the memory in the return intervals which relates to the memory in the volatility and find two scaling regimes, ℓ<ℓ* with α1=0.64±0.02 and ℓ> ℓ* with α2=0.92±0.04; these exponent values are similar to results of Liu et al. for the volatility. As an application, we use the scaling and memory properties of the return intervals to suggest a possibly useful method for estimating risk.

  18. Herd behaviors in the stock and foreign exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kyungsik; Yoon, Seong-Min; Kim, Yup

    2004-10-01

    The herd behavior of returns for the won-dollar exchange rate and the Korean stock price index (KOSPI) is analyzed in Korean financial markets. It is reported that the probability distribution P( R) of returns R for three types of herding parameter satisfies the power-law behavior P( R)≃ R- β with the exponents β=2.2 (the won-dollar exchange rate) and 2.4 (the KOSPI). When the herding parameter h satisfies h⩾2.33, the crash regime in which P( R) increases with the increasing R appears. The active state of the transaction exists to decrease for h>2.33. Especially, we find that the distribution of normalized returns shows a crossover to a Gaussian distribution when the time step Δ t=252 is used. Our results will also be compared to the other well-known analyses.

  19. Canonical Sectors and Evolution of Firms in the US Stock Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayden, Lorien; Chachra, Ricky; Alemi, Alexander; Ginsparg, Paul; Sethna, James

    2015-03-01

    In this work, we show how unsupervised machine learning can provide a more objective and comprehensive broad-level sector decomposition of stocks. Classification of companies into sectors of the economy is important for macroeconomic analysis, and for investments into the sector-specific financial indices and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Historically, these major industrial classification systems and financial indices have been based on expert opinion and developed manually. Our method, in contrast, produces an emergent low-dimensional structure in the space of historical stock price returns. This emergent structure automatically identifies ``canonical sectors'' in the market, and assigns every stock a participation weight into these sectors. Furthermore, by analyzing data from different periods, we show how these weights for listed firms have evolved over time. This work was partially supported by NSF Grants DMR 1312160, OCI 0926550 and DGE-1144153 (LXH).

  20. Targeted stock identification using multilocus genotype 'familyprinting'

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Letcher, B.H.; King, T.L.

    1999-01-01

    We present an approach to stock identification of small, targeted populations that uses multilocus microsatellite genotypes of individual mating adults to uniquely identify first- and second-generation offspring in a mixture. We call the approach 'familyprinting'; unlike DNA fingerprinting where tissue samples of individuals are matched, offspring from various families are assigned to pairs of parents or sets of four grandparents with known genotypes. The basic unit of identification is the family, but families can be nested within a variety of stock units ranging from naturally reproducing groups of fish in a small tributary or pond from which mating adults can be sampled to large or small collections of families produced in hatcheries and stocked in specific locations. We show that, with as few as seven alleles per locus using four loci without error, first-generation offspring can be uniquely assigned to the correct family. For second-generation applications in a hatchery more alleles per locus (10) and loci (10) are required for correct assignment of all offspring to the correct set of grandparents. Using microsatellite DNA variation from an Atlantic salmon (Salmo solar) restoration river (Connecticut River, USA), we also show that this population contains sufficient genetic diversity in sea-run returns for 100% correct first, generation assignment and 97% correct second-generation assignment using 14 loci. We are currently using first- and second-generation familyprinting in this population with the ultimate goal of identifying stocking tributary. In addition to within-river familyprinting, there also appears to be sufficient genetic diversity within and between Atlantic salmon populations for identification of 'familyprinted' fish in a mixture of multiple populations. We also suggest that second-generation familyprinting with multiple populations may also provide a tool for examining stock structure. Familyprinting with microsatellite DNA markers is a viable

  1. 26 CFR 1.6037-1 - Return of electing small business corporation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Return of electing small business corporation... small business corporation. (a) In general. Every small business corporation (as defined in section 1371... corporation: (1) The names and addresses of all persons owning stock in the corporation at any time during the...

  2. The effects of behavioral and structural assumptions in artificial stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xinghua; Gregor, Shirley; Yang, Jianmei

    2008-04-01

    Recent literature has developed the conjecture that important statistical features of stock price series, such as the fat tails phenomenon, may depend mainly on the market microstructure. This conjecture motivated us to investigate the roles of both the market microstructure and agent behavior with respect to high-frequency returns and daily returns. We developed two simple models to investigate this issue. The first one is a stochastic model with a clearing house microstructure and a population of zero-intelligence agents. The second one has more behavioral assumptions based on Minority Game and also has a clearing house microstructure. With the first model we found that a characteristic of the clearing house microstructure, namely the clearing frequency, can explain fat tail, excess volatility and autocorrelation phenomena of high-frequency returns. However, this feature does not cause the same phenomena in daily returns. So the Stylized Facts of daily returns depend mainly on the agents’ behavior. With the second model we investigated the effects of behavioral assumptions on daily returns. Our study implicates that the aspects which are responsible for generating the stylized facts of high-frequency returns and daily returns are different.

  3. Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Silva, Roberto; Zembrzuski, Marcelo; Correa, Fabio C.; Lamb, Luis C.

    2010-12-01

    We show that the current economic crisis has led the market to exhibit a non-critical behavior. We do so by analyzing the quantitative parameters of time series from the main assets of the Brazilian Stock Market BOVESPA. By monitoring global persistence we show a deviation of power law behavior during the crisis in a strong analogy with spin systems (from where this concept was originally conceived). Such behavior is corroborated by an emergent heavy tail of absolute return distribution and also by the magnitude autocorrelation exponent. Comparisons with universal exponents obtained in the international stock markets are also performed. This suggests how a thorough analysis of suitable exponents can bring a possible way of forecasting market crises characterized by non-criticality.

  4. Bias correction in the realized stochastic volatility model for daily volatility on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2018-06-01

    The realized stochastic volatility model has been introduced to estimate more accurate volatility by using both daily returns and realized volatility. The main advantage of the model is that no special bias-correction factor for the realized volatility is required a priori. Instead, the model introduces a bias-correction parameter responsible for the bias hidden in realized volatility. We empirically investigate the bias-correction parameter for realized volatilities calculated at various sampling frequencies for six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and then show that the dynamic behavior of the bias-correction parameter as a function of sampling frequency is qualitatively similar to that of the Hansen-Lunde bias-correction factor although their values are substantially different. Under the stochastic diffusion assumption of the return dynamics, we investigate the accuracy of estimated volatilities by examining the standardized returns. We find that while the moments of the standardized returns from low-frequency realized volatilities are consistent with the expectation from the Gaussian variables, the deviation from the expectation becomes considerably large at high frequencies. This indicates that the realized stochastic volatility model itself cannot completely remove bias at high frequencies.

  5. Volatility measurement with directional change in Chinese stock market: Statistical property and investment strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Junjun; Xiong, Xiong; He, Feng; Zhang, Wei

    2017-04-01

    The stock price fluctuation is studied in this paper with intrinsic time perspective. The event, directional change (DC) or overshoot, are considered as time scale of price time series. With this directional change law, its corresponding statistical properties and parameter estimation is tested in Chinese stock market. Furthermore, a directional change trading strategy is proposed for invest in the market portfolio in Chinese stock market, and both in-sample and out-of-sample performance are compared among the different method of model parameter estimation. We conclude that DC method can capture important fluctuations in Chinese stock market and gain profit due to the statistical property that average upturn overshoot size is bigger than average downturn directional change size. The optimal parameter of DC method is not fixed and we obtained 1.8% annual excess return with this DC-based trading strategy.

  6. Evaluation of offshore stocking of Lake Trout in Lake Ontario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lantry, B.F.; O'Gorman, R.; Strang, T.G.; Lantry, J.R.; Connerton, M.J.; Schanger, T.

    2011-01-01

    Restoration stocking of hatchery-reared lake trout Salvelinus namaycush has occurred in Lake Ontario since 1973. In U.S. waters, fish stocked through 1990 survived well and built a large adult population. Survival of yearlings stocked from shore declined during 1990–1995, and adult numbers fell during 1998–2005. Offshore stocking of lake trout was initiated in the late 1990s in response to its successful mitigation of predation losses to double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus and the results of earlier studies that suggested it would enhance survival in some cases. The current study was designed to test the relative effectiveness of three stocking methods at a time when poststocking survival for lake trout was quite low and losses due to fish predators was a suspected factor. The stocking methods tested during 2000–2002 included May offshore, May onshore, and June onshore. Visual observations during nearshore stockings and hydroacoustic observations of offshore stockings indicated that release methods were not a direct cause of fish mortality. Experimental stockings were replicated for 3 years at one site in the southwest and for 2 years at one site in the southeast. Offshore releases used a landing craft to transport hatchery trucks from 3 to 6 km offshore out to 55–60-m-deep water. For the southwest site, offshore stocking significantly enhanced poststocking survival. Among the three methods, survival ratios were 1.74 : 1.00 : 1.02 (May offshore : May onshore : June onshore). Although not statistically significant owing to the small samples, the trends were similar for the southeast site, with survival ratios of 1.67 : 1.00 : 0.72. Consistent trends across years and sites indicated that offshore stocking of yearling lake trout during 2000–2002 provided nearly a twofold enhancement in survival; however, this increase does not appear to be great enough to achieve the 12-fold enhancement necessary to return population abundance to restoration

  7. Time-bound product returns and optimal order quantities for mass merchandisers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Min-Chun; Goh, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The return guidelines for a mass merchandiser usually entail a grace period, a markdown on the original price and the condition of the returned items. This research utilises eight scenarios formed from the variation of possible return guidelines to model the cost functions of single-product categories for a typical mass merchandiser. Models for the eight scenarios are developed and solved with the objective of maximising the expected profit so as to obtain closed form solutions for the associated optimal order quantity. An illustrative example and sensitivity analysis are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Our results show that merchandisers who allow for returns within a time window, albeit with a penalty cost imposed and the returned products being recoverable, should plan for larger order amounts as such products do not affect the business. Similarly, the merchandisers who allow for returns beyond a grace period and without any penalty charges, but where the returned products are irrecoverable, should manage their stocks in this category more judiciously by ordering as little as possible so as to limit the number of returns and carefully consider the effects of their customer satisfaction-guaranteed policies, if any.

  8. The Effect of Subjective Risk Attitudes and Overconfidence on Risk Taking Behaviors: A Experimental Study Based on Traders of the Chinese Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Qi-An; Xiao, Yinghong; Chen, Hui; Chen, Liang

    Our research analyzes the effect of the traders’ subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence on their risk taking behaviors on the Chinese Stock Market by experimental study method. We find that investors’ risk taking behavior is significantly affected by their subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence. Our results also argue that the objective return and volatility of stock are not as good predictors of risk taking behavior as subjective risk and return measures. Moreover, we illustrate that overconfidence and optimism have an significant impact on risk taking behavior In line with theoretical models.

  9. Relative persistence and dispersal of age-0 and age-1 largemouth bass stocked into two Ohio River embayments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hartman, K.J.; Janney, E.C.

    2006-01-01

    In October of 1998 the West Virginia Division of Natural Resources stocked age-0 [mean total length (MTL) = 178 mm] and age-1 (MTL = 273 mm) hatchery-reared largemouth bass into two embayments of the Ohio River. Stocked fish were fitted with both an anchor tag and a visible implant elastomer mark. A multifaceted sampling approach was undertaken to (1) evaluate the persistence of stocked largemouth bass, (2) estimate fidelity of stocked largemouth bass to release sites, and (3) compare return rates of the two age classes. Although stocked largemouth bass comprised the majority (81%) of all bass captured in electrofishing surveys of the stocked embayments during fall 1998, catches declined rapidly during winter 1998, and by spring and summer 1999 stocked largemouth bass were virtually absent from electrofishing surveys. Creel surveys indicated no catch of stocked largemouth bass in the release sites after winter 1998. Electrofishing surveys, creel surveys, and angler call-ins all suggested stocked fish did not persist and either moved out of the stocked embayments or died. The results suggest that stocking advanced-size largemouth bass into these embayments only provided a limited and short-term enhancement of the fishery in those areas.

  10. Trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and harvests in a steady state - A multi-criteria analysis.

    PubMed

    Pingoud, Kim; Ekholm, Tommi; Sievänen, Risto; Huuskonen, Saija; Hynynen, Jari

    2018-03-15

    This paper provides a perspective for comparing trade-offs between harvested wood flows and forest carbon stocks with different forest management regimes. A constant management regime applied to a forest area with an even age-class distribution leads to a steady state, in which the annual harvest and carbon stocks remain constant over time. As both are desirable - carbon stocks for mitigating climate change and harvests for the economic use of wood and displacing fossil fuels - an ideal strategy should be chosen from a set of management regimes that are Pareto-optimal in the sense of multi-criteria decision-making. When choosing between Pareto-optimal alternatives, the trade-off between carbon stock and harvests is unavoidable. This trade-off can be described e.g. in terms of carbon payback times or carbon returns. As numerical examples, we present steady-state harvest levels and carbon stocks in a Finnish boreal forest region for different rotation periods, thinning intensities and collection patterns for harvest residues. In the set of simulated management practices, harvest residue collection presents the most favorable trade-off with payback times around 30-40 years; while Pareto-optimal changes in rotation or thinnings exhibited payback times over 100 years, or alternatively carbon returns below 1%. By extending the rotation period and using less-intensive thinnings compared to current practices, the steady-state carbon stocks could be increased by half while maintaining current harvest levels. Additional cases with longer rotation periods should be also considered, but were here excluded due to the lack of reliable data on older forest stands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Multifractal property of Chinese stock market in the CSI 800 index based on MF-DFA approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Huijian; Zhang, Weiguo

    2018-01-01

    CSI 800 index consists of CSI 500 index and CSI 300 index, aiming to reflect the performance of stocks with large, mid and small size of China A share market. In this paper we analyze the multifractal structure of Chinese stock market in the CSI 800 index based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. We find that the fluctuation of the closing logarithmic returns have multifractal properties, the shape and width of multifractal spectrum are depended on the weighing order q. More interestingly, we observe a bigger market crash in June-August 2015 than the one in 2008 based on the local Hurst exponents. The result provides important information for further study on dynamic mechanism of return fluctuation and whether it would trigger a new financial crisis.

  12. Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

    2014-09-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

  13. A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Fernández-Macho, J.; Neumann, M. B.; Faria, S. H.

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of EU peripheral (so-called PIIGS) stock market indices and the S&P Europe 350 index (SPEURO), as a European benchmark market, over the pre-crisis (2004-2007) and crisis (2008-2011) periods. We computed a rolling-window wavelet correlation for the market returns and applied a non-linear Granger causality test to the wavelet decomposition coefficients of these stock market returns. Our results show that the correlation is stronger for the crisis than for the pre-crisis period. The stock market indices from Portugal, Italy and Spain were more interconnected among themselves during the crisis than with the SPEURO. The stock market from Portugal is the most sensitive and vulnerable PIIGS member, whereas the stock market from Greece tends to move away from the European benchmark market since the 2008 financial crisis till 2011. The non-linear causality test indicates that in the first three wavelet scales (intraweek, weekly and fortnightly) the number of uni-directional and bi-directional causalities is greater during the crisis than in the pre-crisis period, because of financial contagion. Furthermore, the causality analysis shows that the direction of the Granger cause-effect for the pre-crisis and crisis periods is not invariant in the considered time-scales, and that the causality directions among the studied stock markets do not seem to have a preferential direction. These results are relevant to better understand the behaviour of vulnerable stock markets, especially for investors and policymakers.

  14. Stock and option portfolio using fuzzy logic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumarti, Novriana; Wahyudi, Nanang

    2014-03-01

    Fuzzy Logic in decision-making process has been widely implemented in various problems in industries. It is the theory of imprecision and uncertainty that was not based on probability theory. Fuzzy Logic adds values of degree between absolute true and absolute false. It starts with and builds on a set of human language rules supplied by the user. The fuzzy systems convert these rules to their mathematical equivalents. This could simplify the job of the system designer and the computer, and results in much more accurate representations of the way systems behave in the real world. In this paper we examine the decision making process of stock and option trading by the usage of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) technical analysis and Option Pricing with Fuzzy Logic approach. MACD technical analysis is for the prediction of the trends of underlying stock prices, such as bearish (going downward), bullish (going upward), and sideways. By using Fuzzy C-Means technique and Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System, we define the decision output where the value of MACD is high then decision is "Strong Sell", and the value of MACD is Low then the decision is "Strong Buy". We also implement the fuzzification of the Black-Scholes option-pricing formula. The stock and options methods are implemented on a portfolio of one stock and its options. Even though the values of input data, such as interest rates, stock price and its volatility, cannot be obtain accurately, these fuzzy methods can give a belief degree of the calculated the Black-Scholes formula so we can make the decision on option trading. The results show the good capability of the methods in the prediction of stock price trends. The performance of the simulated portfolio for a particular period of time also shows good return.

  15. Extraction of phase information in daily stock prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujiwara, Yoshi; Maekawa, Satoshi

    2000-06-01

    It is known that, in an intermediate time-scale such as days, stock market fluctuations possess several statistical properties that are common to different markets. Namely, logarithmic returns of an asset price have (i) truncated Pareto-Lévy distribution, (ii) vanishing linear correlation, (iii) volatility clustering and its power-law autocorrelation. The fact (ii) is a consequence of nonexistence of arbitragers with simple strategies, but this does not mean statistical independence of market fluctuations. Little attention has been paid to temporal structure of higher-order statistics, although it contains some important information on market dynamics. We applied a signal separation technique, called Independent Component Analysis (ICA), to actual data of daily stock prices in Tokyo and New York Stock Exchange (TSE/NYSE). ICA does a linear transformation of lag vectors from time-series to find independent components by a nonlinear algorithm. We obtained a similar impulse response for these dataset. If it were a Martingale process, it can be shown that impulse response should be a delta-function under a few conditions that could be numerically checked and as was verified by surrogate data. This result would provide information on the market dynamics including speculative bubbles and arbitrating processes. .

  16. Dominating clasp of the financial sector revealed by partial correlation analysis of the stock market.

    PubMed

    Kenett, Dror Y; Tumminello, Michele; Madi, Asaf; Gur-Gershgoren, Gitit; Mantegna, Rosario N; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2010-12-20

    What are the dominant stocks which drive the correlations present among stocks traded in a stock market? Can a correlation analysis provide an answer to this question? In the past, correlation based networks have been proposed as a tool to uncover the underlying backbone of the market. Correlation based networks represent the stocks and their relationships, which are then investigated using different network theory methodologies. Here we introduce a new concept to tackle the above question--the partial correlation network. Partial correlation is a measure of how the correlation between two variables, e.g., stock returns, is affected by a third variable. By using it we define a proxy of stock influence, which is then used to construct partial correlation networks. The empirical part of this study is performed on a specific financial system, namely the set of 300 highly capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, in the time period 2001-2003. By constructing the partial correlation network, unlike the case of standard correlation based networks, we find that stocks belonging to the financial sector and, in particular, to the investment services sub-sector, are the most influential stocks affecting the correlation profile of the system. Using a moving window analysis, we find that the strong influence of the financial stocks is conserved across time for the investigated trading period. Our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces controlling the correlation profile observed in a financial market.

  17. The pricing effect of the common pattern in firm-level idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from A-Share stocks of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Zhi; Shu, Tengjia; Yin, Libo

    2018-05-01

    Inspired by Herskovic et al. (2016), we investigate the pricing effect of the firm-level common idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) in China's A-Share market. Return tests indicate that lower CIV risk loadings bring higher returns significantly, while the pricing function of market volatility (MV) is inconsistent. Strategy that goes long the highest CIV-beta quintile and short the lowest CIV-beta quintile brings an annualized average return of 5%-7%. Our findings supplement Herskovic et al. (2016) by confirming a significantly negative relationship between CIV and stock returns in a developing market.

  18. Time-scale effects on the gain-loss asymmetry in stock indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sándor, Bulcsú; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zsolt; Néda, Zoltán

    2016-08-01

    The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over 2 % , and it is the result of the non-Pearson-type autocorrelations in the index. These non-Pearson-type correlations can be viewed also as functionally dependent daily volatilities, extending for a finite time interval. A generalized time-window shuffling method is used to show the existence of such autocorrelations. Their characteristic time scale proves to be smaller (less than 25 trading days) than what was previously believed. It is also found that this characteristic time scale has decreased with the appearance of program trading in the stock market transactions. Connections with the leverage effect are also established.

  19. Measuring information interactions on the ordinal pattern of stock time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Xiaojun; Shang, Pengjian; Wang, Jing

    2013-02-01

    The interactions among time series as individual components of complex systems can be quantified by measuring to what extent they exchange information among each other. In many applications, one focuses not on the original series but on its ordinal pattern. In such cases, trivial noises appear more likely to be filtered and the abrupt influence of extreme values can be weakened. Cross-sample entropy and inner composition alignment have been introduced as prominent methods to estimate the information interactions of complex systems. In this paper, we modify both methods to detect the interactions among the ordinal pattern of stock return and volatility series, and we try to uncover the information exchanges across sectors in Chinese stock markets.

  20. Leverage effect and its causality in the Korea composite stock price index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Chang-Yong

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the leverage effect and its causality in the time series of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index from November of 1997 to September of 2010. The leverage effect, which can be quantitatively expressed as a negative correlation between past return and future volatility, is measured by using the cross-correlation coefficient of different time lags between the two time series of the return and the volatility. We find that past return and future volatility are negatively correlated and that the cross correlation is moderate and decays over 60 trading days. We also carry out a partial correlation analysis in order to confirm that the negative correlation between past return and future volatility is neither an artifact nor influenced by the traded volume. To determine the causality of the leverage effect within the decay time, we additionally estimate the cross correlation between past volatility and future return. With the estimate, we perform a statistical hypothesis test to demonstrate that the causal relation is in favor of the return influencing the volatility rather than the other way around.

  1. Interannual Variability of Fisheries Economic Returns and Energy Ratios Is Mostly Explained by Gear Type

    PubMed Central

    Trenkel, Verena M.; Daurès, Fabienne; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Lorance, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    According to portfolio theory applied to fisheries management, economic returns are stabilised by harvesting in a portfolio stocks of species whose returns are negatively correlated and for which the portfolio economic return variance is smaller than the sum of stock specific return variances. Also, variability is expected to decrease with portfolio width. Using a range of indicators, these predictions were tested for the French fishing fleets in the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) during the period 2001–2009. For this, vessels were grouped into eight fishing fleets based on the gears used and exploited species were grouped into five functional groups. The portfolio width of fleets ranged from 1–3 functional groups, or 4–19 species. Economic fleet returns (sale revenues minus fishing costs) varied strongly between years; the interannual variability was independent of portfolio width (species or functional groups). Energy ratio expressed by the ratio between fuel energy used for fishing and energy contained in landings varied from 0.3 for purse seines to 9.7 for trawlers using bottom trawls alone or in combination with pelagic trawls independent of portfolio width. Interannual variability in total sale revenues was larger than the sum of species specific sales revenue variability, except for fleets using hooks and pelagic trawlers; it increased with the number of species exploited. In conclusion, the interannual variability of economic returns or energy ratios of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay did not decrease with the number of species or functional groups exploited, though it varied between fleets. PMID:23922951

  2. Implications of deregulation in natural gas industry on utility risks and returns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addepalli, Rajendra P.

    This thesis examines the changes in risk and required return on capital for local distribution utility companies in the increasingly competitive natural gas industry. The deregulation in the industry impacts the LDCs in several ways. First, with the introduction of competition consumers have been given choices among suppliers besides the traditional monopoly, the local utility, for purchasing their natural gas supply needs. Second, with the introduction of competition, some of the interstate pipelines were stuck with 'Take Or Pay' contracts and other costs that resulted in 'stranded costs', which have been passed on to customers of the pipeline including the LDCs. Third, the new obligation for the LDCs to purchase gas from the market, as opposed to buying it from pipelines and passing on the costs to its customers, brought opportunities and risks as well. Finally, with the introduction of competition, in some states LDCs have been allowed to enter into unregulated ventures to increase their profits. In the thesis we first develop a multifactor model (MFM) to explain historical common stock returns of individual utilities and of utility portfolios. We use 'rolling regression' analysis to analyze how different variables explain the variation in stock returns over time. Second, we conduct event studies to analyze the events in the deregulation process that had significant impacts on the LDC returns. Finally we assess the changes in risk and required return on capital for the LDCs over a 15 year time frame, covering the deregulation period. We employ four aspects in the examination of risk and return profile of the utilities: measuring (a) changes in required return on common equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (b) changes in risk premium (WACC less an interest rate proxy), (c) changes in utility bond ratings, and (d) changes in dividend payments, new debt and equity issuances. We perform regression analysis to explain the changes in the required WACC using

  3. Compression stockings

    MedlinePlus

    ... medical supply store or online. Wash Your Stockings Every Day Keep the stockings clean: Wash the stockings each ... can, have two pairs. Wear one pair each day. Wash and dry the other pair. Replace your stockings every 3 to 6 months so that they maintain ...

  4. Returning forests analyzed with the forest identity.

    PubMed

    Kauppi, Pekka E; Ausubel, Jesse H; Fang, Jingyun; Mather, Alexander S; Sedjo, Roger A; Waggoner, Paul E

    2006-11-14

    Amid widespread reports of deforestation, some nations have nevertheless experienced transitions from deforestation to reforestation. In a causal relationship, the Forest Identity relates the carbon sequestered in forests to the changing variables of national or regional forest area, growing stock density per area, biomass per growing stock volume, and carbon concentration in the biomass. It quantifies the sources of change of a nation's forests. The Identity also logically relates the quantitative impact on forest expanse of shifting timber harvest to regions and plantations where density grows faster. Among 50 nations with extensive forests reported in the Food and Agriculture Organization's comprehensive Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005, no nation where annual per capita gross domestic product exceeded 4,600 dollars had a negative rate of growing stock change. Using the Forest Identity and national data from the Assessment report, a single synoptic chart arrays the 50 nations with coordinates of the rates of change of basic variables, reveals both clusters of nations and outliers, and suggests trends in returning forests and their attributes. The Forest Identity also could serve as a tool for setting forest goals and illuminating how national policies accelerate or retard the forest transitions that are diffusing among nations.

  5. Influence of the Investor's Behavior on the Complexity of the Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atman, A. P. F.; Gonçalves, Bruna Amin

    2012-04-01

    One of the pillars of the finance theory is the efficient-market hypothesis, which is used to analyze the stock market. However, in recent years, this hypothesis has been questioned by a number of studies showing evidence of unusual behaviors in the returns of financial assets ("anomalies") caused by behavioral aspects of the economic agents. Therefore, it is time to initiate a debate about the efficient-market hypothesis and the "behavioral finances." We here introduce a cellular automaton model to study the stock market complexity, considering different behaviors of the economical agents. From the analysis of the stationary standard of investment observed in the simulations and the Hurst exponents obtained for the term series of stock index, we draw conclusions concerning the complexity of the model compared to real markets. We also investigate which conditions of the investors are able to influence the efficient market hypothesis statements.

  6. Evolution and anti-evolution in a minimal stock market model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rothenstein, R.; Pawelzik, K.

    2003-08-01

    We present a novel microscopic stock market model consisting of a large number of random agents modeling traders in a market. Each agent is characterized by a set of parameters that serve to make iterated predictions of two successive returns. The future price is determined according to the offer and the demand of all agents. The system evolves by redistributing the capital among the agents in each trading cycle. Without noise the dynamics of this system is nearly regular and thereby fails to reproduce the stochastic return fluctuations observed in real markets. However, when in each cycle a small amount of noise is introduced we find the typical features of real financial time series like fat-tails of the return distribution and large temporal correlations in the volatility without significant correlations in the price returns. Introducing the noise by an evolutionary process leads to different scalings of the return distributions that depend on the definition of fitness. Because our realistic model has only very few parameters, and the results appear to be robust with respect to the noise level and the number of agents we expect that our framework may serve as new paradigm for modeling self-generated return fluctuations in markets.

  7. Obesity, Gynecological Factors, and Abnormal Mammography Follow-Up in Minority and Medically Underserved Women

    PubMed Central

    Wujcik, Debra; Lin, Jin-Mann S.; Grau, Ana; Wilson, Veronica; Champion, Victoria; Zheng, Wei; Egan, Kathleen M.

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background The relationship between obesity and screening mammography adherence has been examined previously, yet few studies have investigated obesity as a potential mediator of timely follow-up of abnormal (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BIRADS-0]) mammography results in minority and medically underserved patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 35 women who did not return for follow-up >6 months from index abnormal mammography and 41 who returned for follow-up ≤6 months in Nashville, Tennessee. Patients with a BIRADS-0 mammography event in 2003–2004 were identified by chart review. Breast cancer risk factors were collected by telephone interview. Multivariate logistic regression was performed on selected factors with return for diagnostic follow-up. Results Obesity and gynecological history were significant predictors of abnormal mammography resolution. A significantly higher frequency of obese women delayed return for mammography resolution compared with nonobese women (64.7% vs. 35.3%). A greater number of hysterectomized women returned for diagnostic follow-up compared with their counterparts without a hysterectomy (77.8% vs. 22.2%). Obese patients were more likely to delay follow-up >6 months (adjusted OR 4.09, p = 0.02). Conversely, hysterectomized women were significantly more likely to return for timely mammography follow-up ≤6 months (adjusted OR 7.95, p = 0.007). Conclusions Study results suggest that weight status and gynecological history influence patients' decisions to participate in mammography follow-up studies. Strategies are necessary to reduce weight-related barriers to mammography follow-up in the healthcare system including provider training related to mammography screening of obese women. PMID:19558307

  8. A new look at red pine financial returns in the Lake States.

    Treesearch

    David C. Lothner; Dennis P. Bradley

    1984-01-01

    Describes the financial performance of red pine on site index 60, 70, and 80 lands by using new yield evidence and up-to-date cost and revenue assumptions. Best combinations of initial stocking, residual basal area after thinning, an rotation age are identified for two different financial criteria: soil expectation value and internal rate of return.

  9. Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh; Ali, Sajid; Ameer, Saba

    2016-09-01

    The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country's Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.

  10. Post-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2017-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are useful to cool off traders short-term trading mania on individual stocks. The price dynamics approaching the limit boards are known as the magnet effect. However, the price dynamics after opening price limit hits are not well investigated. Here, we provide a detailed analysis on the price dynamics after the hits of up-limit or down-limit is open based on all A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock markets. A "W" shape is found in the expected return, which reveals high probability of a continuous price limit hit on the following day. We also find that price dynamics after opening limit hits are dependent on the market trends. The time span of continuously hitting the price limit is found to an influence factor of the expected profit after the limit hit is open. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics around the limit boards and contributes potential practical values for investors.

  11. Preliminary work of mangrove ecosystem carbon stock mapping in small island using remote sensing: above and below ground carbon stock mapping on medium resolution satellite image

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wicaksono, Pramaditya; Danoedoro, Projo; Hartono, Hartono; Nehren, Udo; Ribbe, Lars

    2011-11-01

    Mangrove forest is an important ecosystem located in coastal area that provides various important ecological and economical services. One of the services provided by mangrove forest is the ability to act as carbon sink by sequestering CO2 from atmosphere through photosynthesis and carbon burial on the sediment. The carbon buried on mangrove sediment may persist for millennia before return to the atmosphere, and thus act as an effective long-term carbon sink. Therefore, it is important to understand the distribution of carbon stored within mangrove forest in a spatial and temporal context. In this paper, an effort to map carbon stocks in mangrove forest is presented using remote sensing technology to overcome the handicap encountered by field survey. In mangrove carbon stock mapping, the use of medium spatial resolution Landsat 7 ETM+ is emphasized. Landsat 7 ETM+ images are relatively cheap, widely available and have large area coverage, and thus provide a cost and time effective way of mapping mangrove carbon stocks. Using field data, two image processing techniques namely Vegetation Index and Linear Spectral Unmixing (LSU) were evaluated to find the best method to explain the variation in mangrove carbon stocks using remote sensing data. In addition, we also tried to estimate mangrove carbon sequestration rate via multitemporal analysis. Finally, the technique which produces significantly better result was used to produce a map of mangrove forest carbon stocks, which is spatially extensive and temporally repetitive.

  12. The real economic effects of cross-delisting from the United States: Evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk =

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Sonia Maria da Silva Faria Nogueira da

    In this study we examine the economic consequences for firms that cross-delisted from a U.S. stock exchange. Using a sample of foreign firms that cross-delisted from U.S. exchange markets from 2000 to 2012, we investigate the long-term performance, the level of financial constraints, and the likelihood of stock price crashes after the cross-delisting event. We document several new findings as follows: i) cross-delisted firms have less growth opportunities, in the long-run, than their cross-listed peers; ii) after the adoption of Rule 12h-6 of 2007, cross-delisted firms exhibit a significant decline in operating performance; iii) cross-delisted firms underperform their cross-listed peers as they experience negative average abnormal returns, especially in the post-cross-delisting period; iv) cross-delisted firms face higher financial constraints post-delisting than their cross-listed counterparts, and also tend to save more cash out of cash flows; v) the increase in financial constraints post-cross-delisting seems to be primarily driven by informational frictions that constrain access to external financing, which are stronger for firms from countries with weaker investor protection and less developed capital markets; vi) cross-delisted firms experience a significant increase in crash risk associated with earnings management in the post-delisting period relative to a control sample of cross-listed firms, and this effect is more pronounced for delisted firms from countries with weaker investor protection and poor quality of their information environment; vii) cross-delisted firms that engage in earnings management to inflate reported earnings prior to a seasoned equity offering are more likely to a subsequent stock price crash.

  13. Variable diffusion in stock market fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hua, Jia-Chen; Chen, Lijian; Falcon, Liberty; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

    2015-02-01

    We analyze intraday fluctuations in several stock indices to investigate the underlying stochastic processes using techniques appropriate for processes with nonstationary increments. The five most actively traded stocks each contains two time intervals during the day where the variance of increments can be fit by power law scaling in time. The fluctuations in return within these intervals follow asymptotic bi-exponential distributions. The autocorrelation function for increments vanishes rapidly, but decays slowly for absolute and squared increments. Based on these results, we propose an intraday stochastic model with linear variable diffusion coefficient as a lowest order approximation to the real dynamics of financial markets, and to test the effects of time averaging techniques typically used for financial time series analysis. We find that our model replicates major stylized facts associated with empirical financial time series. We also find that ensemble averaging techniques can be used to identify the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas time averages fail in this task. Our work indicates that ensemble average approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets' dynamics. Our proposed model also provides new insight into the modeling of financial markets dynamics in microscopic time scales.

  14. Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

    2014-09-01

    Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

  15. Who wins? Study of long-run trader survival in an artificial stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cincotti, Silvano; M. Focardi, Sergio; Marchesi, Michele; Raberto, Marco

    2003-06-01

    We introduce a multi-asset artificial financial market with finite amount of cash and number of stocks. The background trading is characterized by a random trading strategy constrained by the finiteness of resources and by market volatility. Stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering, fat-tailed distribution of returns and reversion to the mean. Three active trading strategies have been introduced and studied in two different market conditions: steady market and growing market with asset inflation. We show that the profitability of each strategy depends both on the periodicity of portfolio reallocation and on the market condition. The best performing strategy is the one that exploits the mean reversion characteristic of asset price processes.

  16. Estimating the Value-at-Risk for some stocks at the capital market in Indonesia based on ARMA-FIGARCH models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukono; Lesmana, E.; Susanti, D.; Napitupulu, H.; Hidayat, Y.

    2017-11-01

    Value-at-Risk has already become a standard measurement that must be carried out by the financial institution for both internal interest and regulatory. In this paper, the estimation of Value-at-Risk of some stocks with econometric models approach is analyzed. In this research, we assume that the stock return follows the time series model. To do the estimation of mean value we are using ARMA models, while to estimate the variance value we are using FIGARCH models. Furthermore, the mean value estimator and the variance are used to estimate the Value-at-Risk. The result of the analysis shows that from five stock PRUF, BBRI, MPPA, BMRI, and INDF, the Value-at-Risk obtained are 0.01791, 0.06037, 0.02550, 0.06030, and 0.02585 respectively. Since Value-at-Risk represents the maximum risk size of each stock at a 95% level of significance, then it can be taken into consideration in determining the investment policy on stocks.

  17. Changes of hierarchical network in local and world stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patwary, Enayet Ullah; Lee, Jong Youl; Nobi, Ashadun; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo

    2017-10-01

    We consider the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns in the local and global stock markets. We generate the minimal spanning tree (MST) using the correlation matrix. We observe that the MSTs change their structure from chain-like networks to star-like networks during periods of market uncertainty. We quantify the measure of the hierarchical network utilizing the value of the hierarchy measured by the hierarchical path. The hierarchy and betweenness centrality characterize the state of the market regarding the impact of crises. During crises, the non-financial company is established as the central node of the MST. However, before the crisis and during stable periods, the financial company is occupying the central node of the MST in the Korean and the U.S. stock markets. The changes in the network structure and the central node are good indicators of an upcoming crisis.

  18. Graphic analysis and multifractal on percolation-based return interval series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pei, A. Q.; Wang, J.

    2015-05-01

    A financial time series model is developed and investigated by the oriented percolation system (one of the statistical physics systems). The nonlinear and statistical behaviors of the return interval time series are studied for the proposed model and the real stock market by applying visibility graph (VG) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We investigate the fluctuation behaviors of return intervals of the model for different parameter settings, and also comparatively study these fluctuation patterns with those of the real financial data for different threshold values. The empirical research of this work exhibits the multifractal features for the corresponding financial time series. Further, the VGs deviated from both of the simulated data and the real data show the behaviors of small-world, hierarchy, high clustering and power-law tail for the degree distributions.

  19. Spend Less and Get More: How to Stock Up Your Classroom without Breaking the Bank

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McWilliams-Abendroth, Christie

    2012-01-01

    The author's classroom is bare, and the school supplies she received are long gone. After realizing how much money she was spending on her classroom each year, she decided to find other resources besides her credit card to stock up her classroom. In this article, the author shares some strategies that provided more return with a lower investment.

  20. High quality topic extraction from business news explains abnormal financial market volatility.

    PubMed

    Hisano, Ryohei; Sornette, Didier; Mizuno, Takayuki; Ohnishi, Takaaki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affects trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affects stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their "thematic" features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized facts in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be "abnormally large," can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no "excess trading," when restricting to times when news is genuinely novel and provides relevant financial information.

  1. High Quality Topic Extraction from Business News Explains Abnormal Financial Market Volatility

    PubMed Central

    Hisano, Ryohei; Sornette, Didier; Mizuno, Takayuki; Ohnishi, Takaaki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affects trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affects stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their “thematic” features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized facts in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be “abnormally large,” can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no “excess trading,” when restricting to times when news is genuinely novel and provides relevant financial information. PMID:23762258

  2. Quantitative relations between risk, return and firm size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Petersen, A. M.; Stanley, H. E.

    2009-03-01

    We analyze —for a large set of stocks comprising four financial indices— the annual logarithmic growth rate R and the firm size, quantified by the market capitalization MC. For the Nasdaq Composite and the New York Stock Exchange Composite we find that the probability density functions of growth rates are Laplace ones in the broad central region, where the standard deviation σ(R), as a measure of risk, decreases with the MC as a power law σ(R)~(MC)- β. For both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, we find that the average growth rate langRrang decreases faster than σ(R) with MC, implying that the return-to-risk ratio langRrang/σ(R) also decreases with MC. For the S&P 500, langRrang and langRrang/σ(R) also follow power laws. For a 20-year time horizon, for the Nasdaq Composite we find that σ(R) vs. MC exhibits a functional form called a volatility smile, while for the NYSE Composite, we find power law stability between σ(r) and MC.

  3. Foraging under conditions of short-term exploitative competition: the case of stock traders

    PubMed Central

    Saavedra, Serguei; Malmgren, R. Dean; Switanek, Nicholas; Uzzi, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Theory purports that animal foraging choices evolve to maximize returns, such as net energy intake. Empirical research in both human and non-human animals reveals that individuals often attend to the foraging choices of their competitors while making their own foraging choices. Owing to the complications of gathering field data or constructing experiments, however, broad facts relating theoretically optimal and empirically realized foraging choices are only now emerging. Here, we analyse foraging choices of a cohort of professional day traders who must choose between trading the same stock multiple times in a row—patch exploitation—or switching to a different stock—patch exploration—with potentially higher returns. We measure the difference between a trader's resource intake and the competitors' expected intake within a short period of time—a difference we call short-term comparative returns. We find that traders' choices can be explained by foraging heuristics that maximize their daily short-term comparative returns. However, we find no one-best relationship between different trading choices and net income intake. This suggests that traders' choices can be short-term win oriented and, paradoxically, maybe maladaptive for absolute market returns. PMID:23363635

  4. Stock or cash? The trade-offs for buyers and sellers in mergers and acquisitions.

    PubMed

    Rappaport, A; Sirower, M L

    1999-01-01

    In 1988, less than 2% of large deals were paid for entirely in stock; by 1998, that number had risen to 50%. The shift has profound ramifications for shareholders of both the acquiring and acquired companies. In this article, the authors provide a framework and two simple tools to guide boards of both companies through the issues they need to consider when making decisions about how to pay for--and whether to accept--a deal. First an acquirer has to decide whether to finance the deal using stock or pay cash. Second, if the acquirer decides to issue stock, it then must decide whether to offer a fixed value of shares or a fixed number of them. Offering cash places all the potential risks and rewards with the acquirer--and sends a strong signal to the markets that it has confidence in the value not only of the deal but in its own stock. By issuing shares, however, an acquirer in essence offers to share the newly merged company with the stockholders of the acquired company--a signal the market often interprets as a lack of confidence in the value of the acquirer's stock. Offering a fixed number of shares reinforces that impression because it requires the selling stockholders to share the risk that the value of the acquirer's stock will decline before the deal goes through. Offering a fixed value of shares sends a more confident signal to the markets, as the acquirer assumes all of that risk. The choice between cash and stock should never be made without full and careful consideration of the potential consequences. The all-too-frequent disappointing returns from stock transactions underscore how important the method of payment truly is.

  5. [Pulsatile total cavopulmonary shunt for hypoplastic right heart syndrome with abnormal systemic venous return--a case report].

    PubMed

    Oiwa, H; Kawauchi, M; Chikada, M; Yagyu, K; Kotsuka, Y; Furuse, A

    1995-01-01

    A pulsatile total cavopulmonary shunt was successfully performed on a 5-year-old girl with hypoplastic right heart syndrome associated with abnormal systemic venous return; at the same time, modified mitral valve replacement was performed for mitral regurgitation. The right atrium, tricuspid valve and right ventricle were all extremely dimunitive. The diameter of the tricuspid valve was 50% of normal and the volume of the right ventricle was 8.6% of normal. In addition, there were severe subpumonary stenosis, a restrictive ventricular septal defect (VSD) and an atrial septal defect (ASD). The bilateral superior venae cavae (SVCs) and the hepatic vein drained to the left atrium, and the inferior vena cava was infrahepatically interrupted with a hemiazygos connection to the left superior vena cava. At the operation, each SVC was anastomosed end-to-side to each branch of the pulmonary artery (PA). The restrictive ventricular septal defect and stenotic subpulmonary lesion were left. The diameter of the ASD was reduced from 12 mm to 7 mm. The main PA was neither divided nor banded. The pulsatile blood flow from the left heart to the PA was regurated by a native restrictive VSD and stenotic subpulmonary lesion, and that from the right heart via the ASD was limited by reducing the size of the ASD. These described anatomic arrangements produced adequate antegrade pulsatile flow in the PA, which might prevent the development of pulmonary arteriovenous fistulae and, besides permit transfer of drainage of the hepatic vein from the left to the right atrium via the ASD in future.

  6. The behaviour of share returns of football clubs: An econophysics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Paulo; Loures, Luís; Nunes, José Rato; Dionísio, Andreia

    2017-04-01

    Football is a sport that moves thousands of people and millions of euros. Since 1983, several clubs entered the stock markets with shares, and now twenty two clubs are listed in the Stoxx Football Index. In this study, we analyse the behaviour of the return rates of such shares, with Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (and its correlation coefficient). With Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are able to observe that the shares of several clubs are far from the behaviour of a random walk, which is expected by the theory. Using Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis, we calculate the cross correlations of clubs' returns with national indexes and then with the Stoxx Football Index. Although almost all of them are positive, they do not seem to be strong.

  7. Stock optimizing in choice when a token deposit is the operant.

    PubMed

    Widholm, J J; Silberberg, A; Hursh, S R; Imam, A A; Warren-Boulton, F R

    2001-11-01

    Each of 2 monkeys typically earned their daily food ration by depositing tokens in one of two slots. Tokens deposited in one slot dropped into a bin where they were kept (token kept). Deposits to a second slot dropped into a bin where they could be obtained again (token returned). In Experiment 1, a fixed-ratio (FR) 5 schedule that provided two food pellets was associated with each slot. Both monkeys preferred the token-returned slot. In Experiment 2, both subjects chose between unequal FR schedules with the token-returned slot always associated with the leaner schedule. When the FRs were 2 versus 3 and 2 versus 6, preferences were maintained for the token-returned slot; however, when the ratios were 2 versus 12, preference shifted to the token-kept slot. In Experiment 3, both monkeys chose between equal-valued concurrent variable-interval variable-interval schedules. Both monkeys preferred the slot that returned tokens. In Experiment 4, both monkeys chose between FRs that typically differed in size by a factor of 10. Both monkeys preferred the FR schedule that provided more food per trial. These data show that monkeys will choose so as to increase the number of reinforcers earned (stock optimizing) even when this preference reduces the rate of reinforcement (all reinforcers divided by session time).

  8. Market Correlation Structure Changes Around the Great Crash: A Random Matrix Theory Analysis of the Chinese Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Rui-Qi; Xie, Wen-Jie; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    The correlation structure of a stock market contains important financial contents, which may change remarkably due to the occurrence of financial crisis. We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 Chinese stocks. Both raw correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix with respect to the market index in two time periods of one year are investigated. We find that the Chinese stocks have stronger average correlation and partial correlation in 2008 than in 2007 and the average partial correlation is significantly weaker than the average correlation in each period. Accordingly, the largest eigenvalue of the correlation matrix is remarkably greater than that of the partial correlation matrix in each period. Moreover, each largest eigenvalue and its eigenvector reflect an evident market effect, while other deviating eigenvalues do not. We find no evidence that deviating eigenvalues contain industrial sectorial information. Surprisingly, the eigenvectors of the second largest eigenvalues in 2007 and of the third largest eigenvalues in 2008 are able to distinguish the stocks from the two exchanges. We also find that the component magnitudes of the some largest eigenvectors are proportional to the stocks’ capitalizations.

  9. Stock or stroke? Stock market movement and stroke incidence in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chun-Chih; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Lin, Ying-Tzu

    2012-12-01

    This paper investigates the impact of stock market movement on incidences of stroke utilizing population-based aggregate data in Taiwan. Using the daily data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and from the National Health Insurance Research Database during 2001/1/1-2007/12/31, which consist of 2556 observations, we examine the effects of stock market on stroke incidence - the level effect and the daily change effects. In general, we find that both a low stock index level and a daily fall in the stock index are associated with greater incidences of stroke. We further partition the data on sex and age. The level effect is found to be significant for either gender, in the 45-64 and 65 ≥ age groups. In addition, two daily change effects are found to be significant for males and the elderly. Although stockholdings can increase wealth, they can also increase stroke incidence, thereby representing a cost to health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A quantum mechanical model for the relationship between stock price and stock ownership

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cotfas, Liviu-Adrian

    2012-11-01

    The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is unknown. We show that the stock price can be better described by a function indicating at any moment of time the probabilities for the possible values of price if a transaction takes place. This more general description contains partial information on the stock price, but it also contains partial information on the stock owner.more » By following the analogy with quantum mechanics, we assume that the time evolution of the function describing the stock price can be described by a Schroedinger type equation.« less

  11. Current concepts of metabolic abnormalities in HIV patients: focus on lipodystrophy.

    PubMed

    Kolter, Donald P

    2003-12-01

    HIV infection is associated with a number of metabolic abnormalities, including lipodystrophy, a difficult-to-define disorder whose characteristics include hyperlipidemia, insulin resistance, and fat redistribution. Current data suggest that lipodystrophy is caused by multiple factors. Dual-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor therapy combined with protease inhibitor therapy has been shown to increase the risk of metabolic abnormalities, but susceptibility independent of drug effects has also been shown. While many of the treatments for the broad range of signs and symptoms of lipodystrophy bring about improvements in patient status, none have been demonstrated to bring about a return to baseline levels.

  12. Trading network predicts stock price.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  13. Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices. PMID:24429767

  14. Effects of fundamentals acquisition and strategy switch on stock price dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

    2018-02-01

    An agent-based artificial stock market is developed to simulate trading behavior of investors. In the market, acquisition and employment of information about fundamentals and strategy switch are investigated to explain stock price dynamics. Investors could obtain the information from both market and neighbors resided on their social networks. Depending on information status and performances of different strategies, an informed investor may switch to the strategy of fundamentalist. This in turn affects the information acquisition process, since fundamentalists are more inclined to search and spread the information than chartists. Further investigation into price dynamics generated from three typical networks, i.e. regular lattice, small-world network and random graph, are conducted after general relation between network structures and price dynamics is revealed. In each network, integrated effects of different combinations of information efficiency and switch intensity are investigated. Results have shown that, along with increasing switch intensity, market and social information efficiency play different roles in the formation of price distortion, standard deviation and kurtosis of returns.

  15. Effect of intravaginal clindamycin cream on pregnancy outcome and on abnormal vaginal microbial flora of pregnant women.

    PubMed Central

    Rosenstein, I J; Morgan, D J; Lamont, R F; Sheehan, M; Doré, C J; Hay, P E; Taylor-Robinson, D

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine whether intravaginal clindamycin cream reduces the incidence of abnormal pregnancy outcome in women with abnormal vaginal microbial flora graded as intermediate or BV and to investigate the effect of the antibiotic on vaginal microbial flora. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of pregnant women in an antenatal clinic of a district general hospital. The subjects were 268 women who had abnormal vaginal microbial flora at first clinic visit by examination of a Gram-stained vaginal smear and 34 women with a normal vaginal flora. Two hundred and thirty-seven women were evaluable. Women with abnormal Gram-stained smears (graded as II or III) on clinic recall were randomised to receive treatment (intravaginal clindamycin cream) or placebo and followed to assess outcome of pregnancy, vaginal flora, and detection of Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum after treatment. RESULTS: Abnormal outcomes of pregnancy were not significantly different in treated and placebo groups by Chi square (P = 0.2). However, women with grade III flora responded better to clindamycin than women with grade II flora by numbers of abnormal outcomes (P = 0.03) and return to normal vaginal flora (P = 0.01) (logistic regression analysis model). This may be due to differences in vaginal bacterial species in these grades. Women whose abnormal vaginal flora had spontaneously returned to normal on follow-up and were therefore not treated (revertants) had as many abnormal outcomes as placebos suggesting that damage by abnormal bacterial species occurred early in pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Gram-stain screening distinguishing grade II from grade III flora may be helpful in prescribing treatment other than clindamycin for women with grade II flora. Earlier diagnosis and treatment may be more effective in preventing an abnormal outcome, possibly as soon as pregnancy is diagnosed or even offered as a pre-conception screen. PMID:10968599

  16. Effect of intravaginal clindamycin cream on pregnancy outcome and on abnormal vaginal microbial flora of pregnant women.

    PubMed

    Rosenstein, I J; Morgan, D J; Lamont, R F; Sheehan, M; Doré, C J; Hay, P E; Taylor-Robinson, D

    2000-01-01

    To determine whether intravaginal clindamycin cream reduces the incidence of abnormal pregnancy outcome in women with abnormal vaginal microbial flora graded as intermediate or BV and to investigate the effect of the antibiotic on vaginal microbial flora. A prospective cohort study of pregnant women in an antenatal clinic of a district general hospital. The subjects were 268 women who had abnormal vaginal microbial flora at first clinic visit by examination of a Gram-stained vaginal smear and 34 women with a normal vaginal flora. Two hundred and thirty-seven women were evaluable. Women with abnormal Gram-stained smears (graded as II or III) on clinic recall were randomised to receive treatment (intravaginal clindamycin cream) or placebo and followed to assess outcome of pregnancy, vaginal flora, and detection of Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum after treatment. Abnormal outcomes of pregnancy were not significantly different in treated and placebo groups by Chi square (P = 0.2). However, women with grade III flora responded better to clindamycin than women with grade II flora by numbers of abnormal outcomes (P = 0.03) and return to normal vaginal flora (P = 0.01) (logistic regression analysis model). This may be due to differences in vaginal bacterial species in these grades. Women whose abnormal vaginal flora had spontaneously returned to normal on follow-up and were therefore not treated (revertants) had as many abnormal outcomes as placebos suggesting that damage by abnormal bacterial species occurred early in pregnancy. Gram-stain screening distinguishing grade II from grade III flora may be helpful in prescribing treatment other than clindamycin for women with grade II flora. Earlier diagnosis and treatment may be more effective in preventing an abnormal outcome, possibly as soon as pregnancy is diagnosed or even offered as a pre-conception screen.

  17. C-Lines of Stocking for Southern Bottomland Hardwoods: A Guide to Identifying Insuffiecient Stocking

    Treesearch

    J.C.G. Goelz

    1997-01-01

    A B-line on a stocking chart represents suggested residual stocking after thinning, or minimum full stocking. A stand at the C-line on a stocking chart will achieve the B-line after a period of growth usually specified as 10 years. Four C-lines that reflect insufficient stocking of southern bottomland hardwoods are presented. These C-lines represent 10,15,20, and 25...

  18. Understanding the complex dynamics of stock markets through cellular automata

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, G.; Kandhai, D.; Sloot, P. M. A.

    2007-04-01

    We present a cellular automaton (CA) model for simulating the complex dynamics of stock markets. Within this model, a stock market is represented by a two-dimensional lattice, of which each vertex stands for a trader. According to typical trading behavior in real stock markets, agents of only two types are adopted: fundamentalists and imitators. Our CA model is based on local interactions, adopting simple rules for representing the behavior of traders and a simple rule for price updating. This model can reproduce, in a simple and robust manner, the main characteristics observed in empirical financial time series. Heavy-tailed return distributions due to large price variations can be generated through the imitating behavior of agents. In contrast to other microscopic simulation (MS) models, our results suggest that it is not necessary to assume a certain network topology in which agents group together, e.g., a random graph or a percolation network. That is, long-range interactions can emerge from local interactions. Volatility clustering, which also leads to heavy tails, seems to be related to the combined effect of a fast and a slow process: the evolution of the influence of news and the evolution of agents’ activity, respectively. In a general sense, these causes of heavy tails and volatility clustering appear to be common among some notable MS models that can confirm the main characteristics of financial markets.

  19. Stock Market Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  20. Greed, fear and stock market dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerhoff, Frank H.

    2004-11-01

    We present a behavioral stock market model in which traders are driven by greed and fear. In general, the agents optimistically believe in rising markets and thus buy stocks. But if stock prices change too abruptly, they panic and sell stocks. Our model mimics some stylized facts of stock market dynamics: (1) stock prices increase over time, (2) stock markets sometimes crash, (3) stock prices show little pair correlation between successive daily changes, and (4) periods of low volatility alternate with periods of high volatility. A strong feature of the model is that stock prices completely evolve according to a deterministic low-dimensional nonlinear law of motion.

  1. Assessing the stock market volatility for different sectors in Malaysia by using standard deviation and EWMA methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saad, Shakila; Ahmad, Noryati; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-11-01

    Nowadays, the study on volatility concept especially in stock market has gained so much attention from a group of people engaged in financial and economic sectors. The applications of volatility concept in financial economics can be seen in valuation of option pricing, estimation of financial derivatives, hedging the investment risk and etc. There are various ways to measure the volatility value. However for this study, two methods are used; the simple standard deviation and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). The focus of this study is to measure the volatility on three different sectors of business in Malaysia, called primary, secondary and tertiary by using both methods. The daily and annual volatilities of different business sector based on stock prices for the period of 1 January 2014 to December 2014 have been calculated in this study. Result shows that different patterns of the closing stock prices and return give different volatility values when calculating using simple method and EWMA method.

  2. Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

    2018-03-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

  3. The influence of jumping risk and volatility risk on TAIEX option return

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Wei-Long; Hsieh, Ching-Tang; Huang, Jui-Chan; Wu, Tzu-Jung

    2017-06-01

    Due to the low profits in recent years environmental, as well as the development of financial engineering that promote the derivatives trading Volume increased. Moreover, the fastest-growing of selected right and the lack of research about option risk. This study aim to explore the relationship between the risk and reward of selected right in Taiwan index. This study focus on the pricing the jump risk of selected right in Taiwan index. Using cross-sectional data as a 12-month study period, using the iteration method to research the effects of abnormal returns, the result shows that different risk factors of fluctuations affected the abnormal returns obviously will cause risk premium as well as the jump risk which consistent with the theory of behavioral finance. However, according to traditional finance theory, contrary to the results of this study consider that higher risks should generate higher-paying as well. According this study, the investors in behavioral finance in modern financial theory is not rational, and the trading behavior is non-random, moreover, the financial market is non-efficiency. Instead, the high risk low reward.

  4. Distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Jiawen; Chen, Langnan; Liu, Hao

    2013-12-01

    We examine the distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity by employing the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model and three-minute frequency data from Chinese stock markets. We find that the BCPE distribution within the GAMLSS framework fits the distributions of stock market liquidity well with the diagnosis test. We also find that the stock market index exhibits a significant impact on the distributions of stock market liquidity. The stock market liquidity usually exhibits a positive skewness, but a normal distribution at a low level of stock market index and a high-peak and fat-tail shape at a high level of stock market index.

  5. For the last time: stock options are an expense.

    PubMed

    Bodie, Zvi; Kaplan, Robert S; Merton, Robert C

    2003-03-01

    Should stock options be recorded as an expense on a company's income statement and balance sheet, or should they remain where they are, relegated to footnotes? The extraordinary boom in share prices during the Internet bubble made critics of option expensing look like spoilsports. But since the crash, the debate has returned with a vengeance. And no wonder: The authors believe the case for expensing options is overwhelming. In this article, Nobel Iaureate Robert Merton, one of the inventors of the Black-Scholes option-pricing model; his coauthor on the classic textbook Finance, Zvi Bodie; and Robert Kaplan, creator of the Balanced Scorecard, examine and dismiss the principal claims put forward by those who continue to oppose options expensing. They demonstrate that stock-option grants do indeed have real cash-flow implications that need to be reported. They show that effective ways certainly exist to quantify those implications. They detail the distortions that relegating stock-option accounting to footnotes creates. And they show why reporting option costs should in no way hamper young companies in their efforts to provide incentives. Options are indeed a powerful incentive, the authors agree, and failing to record a transaction that creates such powerful effects is economically indefensible. Worse, it encourages companies to favor options over alternative incentive systems. It is not the proper role of accounting standards, the authors argue, to distort executive and employee compensation by subsidizing one particular form of compensation and no other. Companies should choose compensation methods according to their economic benefits--not the way they are reported.

  6. Duck Valley Resident Fish Stocking Program, 2000 Final Annual Report.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dodson, Guy; Pero, Vincent

    The Shoshone-Paiute Tribes fish-stocking program was begun in 1988 and is intended to provide a subsistence fishery for the tribal members. The program stocks catchable and fingerling size trout in Mt. View and Sheep Creek Reservoirs. Rainbow trout are purchased from only certified disease-free facilities to be stocked in our reservoirs. This project will help restore a fishery for tribal members that historically depended on wild salmon and steelhead in the Owyhee and Bruneau Rivers and their tributaries for their culture as well as for subsistence. This project is partial substitution for loss of anadromous fish production due to constructionmore » and operation of hydroelectric dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. Until anadromous fish can be returned to the Owyhee and Bruneau Rivers this project will continue indefinitely. As part of this project the Shoshone-Paiute Tribes will also receive income in the form of fees from non-tribal members who come to fish these reservoirs. Regular monitoring and evaluation of the fishery will include sampling for length/weight/condition and for signs of disease. A detailed Monitoring and evaluation plan has been put in place for this project. However due to budget limitations on this project only the fishery surveys and limited water quality work can be completed. A creel survey was initiated in 1998 and we are following the monitoring and evaluation schedule for this program (as budget allows) as well as managing the budget and personnel. This program has been very successful in the past decade and has provided enjoyment and sustenance for both tribal and non-tribal members. All biological data and stocking rates will be including in the Annual reports to Bonneville Power Administration (BPA).« less

  7. The Interactive Influence of Perceived Ownership and Perceived Choosership of Stocks on Brain Response to Stock Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Shang, Zhe; Wang, Lei; Wu, Han

    2017-01-01

    The present research examined the influence of perceived ownership (self/other) and perceived chooser (self/other) of stocks on brain activity, and investigated whether differential brain responses to stock outcomes as a result of perceived differences in ownership of stock would be modulated by perceived chooser of stock. We used a 2 (stock chooser: self, other) × 2 (stock owner: self, other) within-subject design to represent four types of chooser-owner relationships. Brain potentials were recorded while participants observed increasing and decreasing stock prices. Results showed that observations of stock outcomes among four types of chooser-owner relationships elicited differentiated feedback-related negativity (d-FRN: differences in FRN waves between losses and gains, reflecting violations of expectancy to stock outcomes): (1) Self-chosen-other-owned stocks evoked significantly larger d-FRN discrepancies than self-chosen-self-owned stocks, indicating a greater expectancy violation to others' losses than to one's own, demonstrating a reversed ownership effect. Moreover, people high in conscientiousness showed an increase in this trend, suggesting a stronger other-consideration; (2) Self-chosen-self-owned stocks and other-chosen-self-owned stocks revealed no significant d-FRN discrepancy, showing no choosership effect beyond the ownership effect; (3) Other-chosen-self-owned stocks evoked a significantly stronger d-FRN discrepancy than other-chosen-other-owned stocks, demonstrating an ownership effect; (4) Self-chosen-other-owned stocks evoked a significantly stronger d-FRN discrepancy than other-chosen-other-owned stocks, revealing a choosership effect. These findings suggest that the ownership effect could be reversed by conscientiousness induced by perceived choosership in the agency relationship, while the choosership effect is attenuated and even disappears under the influence of perceived ownership. PMID:28194118

  8. Early physiological abnormalities after simian immunodeficiency virus infection.

    PubMed

    Horn, T F; Huitron-Resendiz, S; Weed, M R; Henriksen, S J; Fox, H S

    1998-12-08

    Central nervous system (CNS) damage and dysfunction are devastating consequences of HIV infection. Although the CNS is one of the initial targets for HIV infection, little is known about early viral-induced abnormalities that can affect CNS function. Here we report the detection of early physiological abnormalities in simian immunodeficiency virus-infected monkeys. The acute infection caused a disruption of the circadian rhythm manifested by rises in body temperature, observed in all five individuals between 1 and 2 weeks postinoculation (p.i.), accompanied by a reduction in daily motor activity to 50% of control levels. Animals remained hyperthermic at 1 and 2 months p.i. and returned to preinoculation temperatures at 3 months after viral inoculation. Although motor activity recovered to baseline values at 1 month p.i., activity levels then decreased to approximately 50% of preinoculation values over the next 2 months. Analysis of sensory-evoked responses 1 month p.i. revealed distinct infection-induced changes in auditory-evoked potential peak latencies that persisted at 3 months after viral inoculation. These early physiological abnormalities may precede the development of observable cognitive or motor deficiencies and can provide an assay to evaluate agents to prevent or alleviate neuronal dysfunction.

  9. Critical comparison of several order-book models for stock-market fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slanina, F.

    2008-01-01

    Far-from-equilibrium models of interacting particles in one dimension are used as a basis for modelling the stock-market fluctuations. Particle types and their positions are interpreted as buy and sel orders placed on a price axis in the order book. We revisit some modifications of well-known models, starting with the Bak-Paczuski-Shubik model. We look at the four decades old Stigler model and investigate its variants. One of them is the simplified version of the Genoa artificial market. The list of studied models is completed by the models of Maslov and Daniels et al. Generically, in all cases we compare the return distribution, absolute return autocorrelation and the value of the Hurst exponent. It turns out that none of the models reproduces satisfactorily all the empirical data, but the most promising candidates for further development are the Genoa artificial market and the Maslov model with moderate order evaporation.

  10. Microscopic Spin Model for the STOCK Market with Attractor Bubbling on Regular and Small-World Lattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krawiecki, A.

    A multi-agent spin model for changes of prices in the stock market based on the Ising-like cellular automaton with interactions between traders randomly varying in time is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The structure of interactions has topology of a small-world network obtained from regular two-dimensional square lattices with various coordination numbers by randomly cutting and rewiring edges. Simulations of the model on regular lattices do not yield time series of logarithmic price returns with statistical properties comparable with the empirical ones. In contrast, in the case of networks with a certain degree of randomness for a wide range of parameters the time series of the logarithmic price returns exhibit intermittent bursting typical of volatility clustering. Also the tails of distributions of returns obey a power scaling law with exponents comparable to those obtained from the empirical data.

  11. 26 CFR 1.1081-3 - Exchanges of stock or securities solely for stock or securities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Exchanges of stock or securities solely for stock or securities. 1.1081-3 Section 1.1081-3 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF... § 1.1081-3 Exchanges of stock or securities solely for stock or securities. The exchange, without the...

  12. The Stock Market Game: A Simulation of Stock Market Trading. Grades 5-8.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Draze, Dianne

    This guide to a unit on a simulation game about the stock market contains an instructional text and two separate simulations. Through directed lessons and reproducible worksheets, the unit teaches students about business ownership, stock exchanges, benchmarks, commissions, why prices change, the logistics of buying and selling stocks, and how to…

  13. Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

  14. Femoroacetabular Impingement in Professional Football Players: Return to Play and Predictors of Career Length After Hip Arthroscopy.

    PubMed

    Menge, Travis J; Bhatia, Sanjeev; McNamara, Shannen C; Briggs, Karen K; Philippon, Marc J

    2017-07-01

    Previous studies have shown hip arthroscopy to be a highly effective treatment for symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) in a wide range of athletes; however, the rate of return to play and length of career after hip arthroscopy in professional football players are unknown. To determine how many athletes returned to professional football and the number of seasons they played after surgery. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Fifty-one professional football players (60 hips) underwent hip arthroscopy for FAI between 2000 and 2014 by a single surgeon. Return to play was defined as competing in a preseason or regular season professional football game after surgery. Data were retrospectively obtained for each player from NFL.com , ESPN.com , individual team websites, and/or CFL.ca . We found that 87% (52/60) of the arthroscopic procedures allowed professional football players to return to play in a preseason or regular season game. Athletes who returned played an average of 38 games during 3.2 seasons after arthroscopy, with an average total career length of 7.4 seasons. Ninety-two percent (48/52) of players who returned had a minimum total career length of 3 years. When participants were analyzed by position, linemen were less likely to return after hip arthroscopy compared with other players (odds ratio 5.6; 95% CI, 1.1-35; P = .04). All quarterbacks and tight ends returned to play after surgery. No significant difference in return to play rate was found between athletes who underwent microfracture and those who did not (25% vs 38%, P = .698). Hip arthroscopy for treatment of FAI and associated pathologic abnormalities in professional football players resulted in a high rate of return to play. The study's findings demonstrate that 87% of the arthroscopic procedures allowed professional football players to return to play, linemen were less likely to return compared with other positions, and the presence of microfracture did not significantly affect the return

  15. 12 CFR 925.20 - Stock purchase.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Stock purchase. 925.20 Section 925.20 Banks and... BANKS Stock Requirements § 925.20 Stock purchase. (a) Minimum stock purchase. Each member shall purchase... outstanding advances. (b) Timing of minimum stock purchase. (1) Within 60 calendar days after an institution...

  16. Persistent collective trend in stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

    2010-12-01

    Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

  17. 12 CFR 925.23 - Excess stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... the form of additional shares of Bank stock or otherwise issue any excess stock. A Bank shall not issue excess stock, as a dividend or otherwise, if after the issuance, the outstanding excess stock at...

  18. Converting partially-stocked aspen stands to fully-stocked stands in the Lake States: an economic analysis.

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey T. Olson; Allen L. Lundgren

    1978-01-01

    The 1968 Wisconsin Forest Survey showed large areas of aspen type that are not considered fully stocked. The economic feasibility of converting partially-stocked stands to full stocking is examined, and a rule presented for determining when a partially-stocked stand should be harvested to maximize its present value.

  19. An evaluation of restoration efforts in fishless lakes stocked with exotic trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Drake, D.C.; Naiman, R.J.

    2000-01-01

    Detrimental effects of introduced fishes on native amphibian populations have prompted removal of introduced cutthroat (Oncorhynchus clarki), rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from naturally fishless lakes at Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington (U.S.A.). Using paleolimnological indicators (diatoms, invertebrates, and sediment characteristics) in eight 480-year-old sediment cores from eight lakes, we (1) derived estimates of baseline environmental conditions and natural variation, (2) assessed the effects of stocking naturally fishless lakes, and (3) determined whether lakes returned to predisturbance conditions after fish removal (restoration). Diatom floras were relatively stable between 315 and 90 years before present in all lakes; we used this time period to define lake-specific "baseline" conditions. Dissimilarity analyses of diatoms revealed sustained, dramatic changes in diatom floras that occurred approximately 80 years ago (when fish were introduced) in four of five stocked lakes, whereas the diatom floras in two unstocked lakes had not changed significantly in the last 315 years. Diatoms were not preserved in an eighth lake. State changes also occurred in two lakes over 200 years before European settlement of the Pacific Northwest. Preserved invertebrate densities fluctuated dramatically over time in all cores, providing a poor reference for assessing the effects of fishes. Nevertheless, fish-invertebrate interactions have been demonstrated in other paleolimnological studies and may be useful for lower-elevation or more productive lakes. Because diatom communities have not returned to predisturbance assemblages in restored lakes, even 20-30 years after fish removal, we conclude that Mt. Rainier lakes were not successfully restored by the removal of fishes.

  20. Annual Coded Wire Tag Program; Oregon Stock Assessment, 2000 Annual Report.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lewis, Mark; Mallette, Christine; Murray, William

    2002-03-01

    distribution of coho stocks released above Bonneville Dam was similar to the other coho groups. However, they had a higher percent catch in gillnet fisheries above Bonneville Dam than coho released below the dam. Survival rates of salmon and steelhead are influenced, not only by factors in the hatchery (disease, density, diet, size and time of release) but also by environmental factors in the river and ocean. These environmental factors are influenced by large scale oceanic and weather patterns such as El Nino. Changes in rearing conditions in the hatchery do impact survival, however, these can be offset by impacts caused by environmental factors. Coho salmon released in the Columbia River generally experience better survival rates when released later in the spring. However, for the 1990 brood year June releases of Columbia River coho had much lower survival than May releases, for all ODFW hatcheries. In general survival of ODFW Columbia River hatchery coho has declined to low levels in recent years. Preliminary results from the evaluation of Visual Implant Elastomer (VIE) tags showed tagging rate and pre-release tag retention improved from the first to second years of tagging. Tagging rate remained identical from 1999 to 2000 while pre-release tag retention dropped to 95%. Returning jack and adult salmon were sampled for CWT and VIE tags in the fall of 2000. Of 606 adults recovered at Sandy Fish Hatchery in 2000, only 1 or 0.2%, retained their VIE tag. Of 36 jacks recovered in 2000, 13 or 36.1% retained their VIE tag.« less

  1. Comparison between global financial crisis and local stock disaster on top of Chinese stock network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Lisi; You, Daming; Jiang, Xin; Guo, Quantong

    2018-01-01

    The science of complex network theory can be usefully applied in many important fields, one of which is the finance. In these practical cases, a massive dataset can be represented as a very large network with certain attributes associated with its nodes and edges. As one of the most important components of financial market, stock market has been attracting more and more attention. In this paper, we propose a threshold model to build Chinese stock market networks and study the topological properties of these networks. To be specific, we compare the effects of different crises, namely the 2008 global crisis and the stock market disaster in 2015, on the threshold networks. Prices of the stocks belonging to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index are considered for three periods: the global crisis, common period and the stock market disaster. We find the probability distribution of the cross-correlations of the stocks during the stock market disaster is fatter than that of others. Besides, the thresholds of cross-correlations are assigned to obtain the threshold networks and the power-law of degree distribution in these networks are observed in a certain range of threshold values. The networks during the stock market disaster also appear to have larger mean degree and modularity, which reveals the strong correlations among these stock prices. Our findings to some extent crosscheck the liquidity shortage reason which is believed to result in the outbreak of the stock market disaster. Moreover, we hope that this paper could give us a deeper understanding of the market's behavior and also lead to interesting future research about the problems of modern finance theory.

  2. Forecasting the realized volatility of the Chinese stock market: Do the G7 stock markets help?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Huan; Chen, Ruoxun; Mei, Dexiang; Diao, Xiaohua

    2018-07-01

    In this paper, we use a comprehensive look to investigate whether the G7 stock markets can contain predictive information to help in forecasting the Chinese stock market volatility. Our out-of-sample empirical results indicate the kitchen sink (HAR-RV-SK) model is able to attain better performance than the benchmark model (HAR-RV) and other models, implying that the G7 stock markets can help in predicting the one-day volatility of the Chinese stock market. Moreover, the kitchen sink strategy can beat the strategy of the simple combination forecasts. Finally, the G7 stock markets can indeed contain useful information, which can increase the accuracy forecasts of the Chinese stock market.

  3. 17 CFR 240.15g-2 - Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Section 15(d) of the Act § 240.15g-2 Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market...

  4. 17 CFR 240.15g-2 - Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Section 15(d) of the Act § 240.15g-2 Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market...

  5. 17 CFR 240.15g-2 - Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Section 15(d) of the Act § 240.15g-2 Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market...

  6. 17 CFR 240.15g-2 - Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Section 15(d) of the Act § 240.15g-2 Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market...

  7. Early physiological abnormalities after simian immunodeficiency virus infection

    PubMed Central

    Horn, Thomas F. W.; Huitron-Resendiz, Salvador; Weed, Michael R.; Henriksen, Steven J.; Fox, Howard S.

    1998-01-01

    Central nervous system (CNS) damage and dysfunction are devastating consequences of HIV infection. Although the CNS is one of the initial targets for HIV infection, little is known about early viral-induced abnormalities that can affect CNS function. Here we report the detection of early physiological abnormalities in simian immunodeficiency virus-infected monkeys. The acute infection caused a disruption of the circadian rhythm manifested by rises in body temperature, observed in all five individuals between 1 and 2 weeks postinoculation (p.i.), accompanied by a reduction in daily motor activity to 50% of control levels. Animals remained hyperthermic at 1 and 2 months p.i. and returned to preinoculation temperatures at 3 months after viral inoculation. Although motor activity recovered to baseline values at 1 month p.i., activity levels then decreased to approximately 50% of preinoculation values over the next 2 months. Analysis of sensory-evoked responses 1 month p.i. revealed distinct infection-induced changes in auditory-evoked potential peak latencies that persisted at 3 months after viral inoculation. These early physiological abnormalities may precede the development of observable cognitive or motor deficiencies and can provide an assay to evaluate agents to prevent or alleviate neuronal dysfunction. PMID:9844017

  8. Long-term effects of fire and harvest on carbon stocks of boreal forests in northeastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, C.; He, H. S.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Zhu, Z.; Liang, Y.; Gong, P.

    2017-12-01

    Fire, harvest and their interactions have strong effects on boreal forests carbon stocks. Repeated disturbances associated with relatively short fire return intervals and harvest rotations, and their interactions caused their effects to increase over simulation time.Boreal forests in the northeastern of China cover 8.46×105 km2, store about 350 Tg aboveground carbon, and play an important role in maintaining China's carbon balance. Boreal forests in this region are facing pressures from repeated fires and timber harvesting activities.The objectives of our study were to evaluate the effects of fire, harvest and their interactions on boreal forest carbon stocks of northeastern China.We used the LANDIS PRO-LINKAGES model-coupling framework to simulate the landscape-level effects of fire and harvest and their interactions over 150 years. Our simulation results suggested that aboveground and soil organic carbon are significantly reduced by fire and harvest over 150 years. The long-term effects of fire and harvest on carbon stocks were greater than the short-term effects in the Great Xing' an Mountains. The total effects of fire-harvest interactions on boreal forests are less than the sum of separate effects of fire and harvest. The response of carbon stocks among ecoregions diverged and was due to the spatial variability of fire and harvest regimes.These results emphasize that fire, harvest, and their interactions play an important role in regulating boreal forest carbon stocks, the extent of fire and harvest effects depended on the intensity of these disturbances.

  9. The Forsyth County Cervical Cancer Prevention Project--II. Compliance with screening follow-up of abnormal cervical smears.

    PubMed

    Michielutte, R; Dignan, M; Bahnson, J; Wells, H B

    1994-12-01

    The Forsyth County Cervical Cancer Prevention Project was a community-wide cancer education program to address the problem of cervical cancer incidence and mortality among minority women in Forsyth County, North Carolina. This paper reports program results with regard to increasing compliance with follow-up for abnormal cervical smears. An analysis of trends prior to and after implementation of the educational program was conducted in one private and two public health primary care clinics to provide an assessment of impact of the project in improving compliance with follow-up among black women. A similar analysis also was conducted for white women. The results of medical record reviews of follow-up procedures for 878 abnormal cervical smears suggested a modest program effect among black women. The percentage of black women who returned for follow-up and treatment of an abnormal cervical smear significantly increased during the time the program was in effect. The trend analysis further indicated that the decline did not begin prior to the intervention period and was maintained throughout the duration of the intervention. No significant change in the percentage who returned for follow-up was found for white women.

  10. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  11. 12 CFR 225.103 - Bank holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. 225.103 Section 225.103 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE... holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. (a) The Board of... bank stock splits without the Board's prior approval, and whether such a company may exercise, without...

  12. 12 CFR 225.103 - Bank holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. 225.103 Section 225.103 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE... holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. (a) The Board of... bank stock splits without the Board's prior approval, and whether such a company may exercise, without...

  13. 12 CFR 225.103 - Bank holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. 225.103 Section 225.103 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE... holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. (a) The Board of... bank stock splits without the Board's prior approval, and whether such a company may exercise, without...

  14. Do stock prices drive people crazy?

    PubMed

    Lin, Chung-Liang; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching

    2015-03-01

    This is the first research to examine a potential relation between stock market volatility and mental disorders. Using data on daily incidences of mental disorders in Taiwan over 4000 days from 1998 through 2009 to assess the time-series relation between stock price movements and mental disorders, we observe that stock price fluctuation clearly affects the hospitalization of mental disorders. We find that during a 12-year follow-up period, a low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock price index and consecutive daily falls in the stock price index are all associated with greater of mental disorders hospitalizations. A 1000-point fall in the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) increases the number of daily mental disorders hospitalizations by 4.71%. A 1% fall in the TAIEX in one single day increases daily hospitalizations for mental disorders by 0.36%. When the stock price index falls one consecutive day, it causes a daily increase of approximately 0.32% hospitalizations due to mental disorders on that day. Stock price index is found to be significant for both gender and all age groups. In addition, daily change is significant for both gender and middle-age groups, whereas accumulated change is significant for males and people aged 45-64. Stockholdings can help people accumulate wealth, but they can also increase mental disorders hospitalizations. In other words, stock price fluctuations do drive people crazy. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

  15. Growth and contribution of stocked channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus (Rafinesque, 1818): the importance of measuring post-stocking performance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, David R.; Long, James M.

    2015-01-01

    In this study it was sought to quantify post-stocking growth, survival, and contribution of advanced size (178 mm total length [TL]) channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus fingerlings, something rarely done. Channel catfish populations were evaluated before (May 2010) and after (May to August 2011 and 2012) stocking. Relative abundance, stocking contribution, and growth were different (P < 0.05) in the two study impoundments (lakes Lone Chimney and Greenleaf, Oklahoma). For fish stocked in Lake Lone Chimney, stocking contribution was lower (3–35%), and average length and weight of stocked fish by age-2 reached 230 mm TL and 85 g, whereas the stocking contribution (84–98%) and growth in length (340 mm TL) and weight (280 g) were higher by age-2 in Lake Greenleaf. Given these unambiguous differences of post-stocking performance, benchmark metrics that represent population-level information such as relative abundance and average length and weight of the sample masked these significant differences, highlighting the importance of marking hatchery-fish and then following them through time to determine the effectiveness of stocking. These results suggest that stock enhancement programmes would benefit from studies that quantify post-stocking performance of hatchery fish.

  16. Scaling analysis of stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bu, Luping; Shang, Pengjian

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we apply the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), local scaling detrended fluctuation analysis (LSDFA), and detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to investigate correlations of several stock markets. DFA method is for the detection of long-range correlations used in time series. LSDFA method is to show more local properties by using local scale exponents. DCCA method is a developed method to quantify the cross-correlation of two non-stationary time series. We report the results of auto-correlation and cross-correlation behaviors in three western countries and three Chinese stock markets in periods 2004-2006 (before the global financial crisis), 2007-2009 (during the global financial crisis), and 2010-2012 (after the global financial crisis) by using DFA, LSDFA, and DCCA method. The findings are that correlations of stocks are influenced by the economic systems of different countries and the financial crisis. The results indicate that there are stronger auto-correlations in Chinese stocks than western stocks in any period and stronger auto-correlations after the global financial crisis for every stock except Shen Cheng; The LSDFA shows more comprehensive and detailed features than traditional DFA method and the integration of China and the world in economy after the global financial crisis; When it turns to cross-correlations, it shows different properties for six stock markets, while for three Chinese stocks, it reaches the weakest cross-correlations during the global financial crisis.

  17. 41 CFR 109-27.5003 - Stock control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Stock control. 109-27... control. (a) Stock control shall be maintained on the basis of stock record accounts of inventories on... property under stock control for greater than 90 days shall be maintained in stock record accounts. ...

  18. 41 CFR 109-27.5003 - Stock control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Stock control. 109-27... control. (a) Stock control shall be maintained on the basis of stock record accounts of inventories on... property under stock control for greater than 90 days shall be maintained in stock record accounts. ...

  19. 41 CFR 109-27.5003 - Stock control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Stock control. 109-27... control. (a) Stock control shall be maintained on the basis of stock record accounts of inventories on... property under stock control for greater than 90 days shall be maintained in stock record accounts. ...

  20. 41 CFR 109-27.5003 - Stock control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Stock control. 109-27... control. (a) Stock control shall be maintained on the basis of stock record accounts of inventories on... property under stock control for greater than 90 days shall be maintained in stock record accounts. ...

  1. 12 CFR 225.103 - Bank holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. 225.103 Section 225.103 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE... § 225.103 Bank holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. (a) The... participate in bank stock splits without the Board's prior approval, and whether such a company may exercise...

  2. 12 CFR 225.103 - Bank holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. 225.103 Section 225.103 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE... § 225.103 Bank holding company acquiring stock by dividends, stock splits or exercise of rights. (a) The... participate in bank stock splits without the Board's prior approval, and whether such a company may exercise...

  3. 12 CFR 221.121 - Extension of credit in certain stock option and stock purchase plans.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extension of credit in certain stock option and stock purchase plans. 221.121 Section 221.121 Banks and Banking FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM (CONTINUED) BOARD... FOR THE PURPOSE OF PURCHASING OR CARRYING MARGIN STOCK (REGULATION U) Interpretations § 221.121...

  4. Feasibility of dsRNA treatment for post-clearing SPF shrimp stocks of newly discovered viral infections using Laem Singh virus (LSNV) as a model.

    PubMed

    Saksmerprome, Vanvimon; Charoonnart, Patai; Flegel, Timothy W

    2017-05-02

    Using post-larvae derived from specific pathogen free (SPF) stocks in penaeid shrimp farming has led to a dramatic increase in production. At the same time, new pathogens of farmed shrimp are continually being discovered. Sometimes these pathogens are carried by shrimp and other crustaceans as persistent infections without gross signs of disease. Thus it is that a 5-generation stock of Penaeus monodon SPF for several pathogens was found, post-stock-development, to be persistently-infected with newly-discovered Laem Singh virus (LSNV). In this situation, the stock developers were faced with destroying their existing stock (developed over a long period at considerable cost) and starting the whole stock development process anew in order to add LSNV to its SPF list. As an alternative, it was hypothesized that injection of complementary dsRNA into viral-infected broodstock prior to mating might inhibit replication of the target virus sufficiently to reduce or eliminate its transmission to their offspring. Subsequent selection of uninfected offspring would allow for post-clearing of LSNV from the existing stock and for conversion of the stock to LSNV-free status. Testing this hypothesis using the LSNV-infected stock described above, we found that transmission was substantially reduced in several treated broodstock compared to much higher transmission in buffer-injected broodstock. Based on these results, the model is proposed for post-clearing of SPF stocks using dsRNA treatment. The model may also be applicable to post-clearing of exceptional, individual performers from grow-out ponds for return to a nucleus breeding center. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. 12 CFR 221.119 - Applicability of plan-lender provisions to financing of stock options and stock purchase rights...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... experience that in some nonqualified plans, particularly stock purchase plans, the credit arrangement is... financing of stock options and stock purchase rights qualified or restricted under Internal Revenue Code... PURCHASING OR CARRYING MARGIN STOCK (REGULATION U) Interpretations § 221.119 Applicability of plan-lender...

  6. 78 FR 17066 - Indirect Stock Transfers and Coordination Rule Exceptions; Transfers of Stock or Securities in...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-03-19

    ... Indirect Stock Transfers and Coordination Rule Exceptions; Transfers of Stock or Securities in Outbound... issue of the Federal Register, the IRS and the Treasury Department are issuing temporary regulations... stock transfers for certain outbound asset reorganizations. The temporary regulations also modify the...

  7. Dissecting cross-impact on stock markets: an empirical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benzaquen, M.; Mastromatteo, I.; Eisler, Z.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    2017-02-01

    The vast majority of market impact studies assess each product individually, and the interactions between the different order flows are disregarded. This strong approximation may lead to an underestimation of trading costs and possible contagion effects. Transactions in fact mediate a significant part of the correlation between different instruments. In turn, liquidity shares the sectorial structure of market correlations, which can be encoded as a set of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. We introduce a multivariate linear propagator model that successfully describes such a structure, and accounts for a significant fraction of the covariance of stock returns. We dissect the various dynamical mechanisms that contribute to the joint dynamics of assets. We also define two simplified models with substantially less parameters in order to reduce overfitting, and show that they have superior out-of-sample performance.

  8. Does the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect significantly affect the A-H premium of the stocks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Eddie C. M.; Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin

    2018-02-01

    Since the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect ("the Connect") was launched in late 2014, more and more Mainland investors have invested in Hong Kong listed shares, and vice versa, increasing the transaction volume of the stock market on both sides. However, only a few studies investigated how the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect affected the pricing dynamics of stocks listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong. Applying linear regression, this study investigates how the Connect affects the H-share discounts of 12 stocks cross-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong. A new feature of our model is that we add a dummy variable so as to be the first study to examine the effect of the China financial crisis on the A-H premium of the stocks. We find that the A-H premium of all stocks widens significantly after the Connect is launched, implying immatureness or even inefficiency of China's financial market. Furthermore, the result shows that trading activities in the mainland market affects the A-H premium more significantly than trading activities in the Hong Kong market do. This implies that China's financial market plays a dominant role in the Connect.

  9. Material Stock Demographics: Cars in Great Britain.

    PubMed

    Cabrera Serrenho, André; Allwood, Julian M

    2016-03-15

    Recent literature on material flow analysis has been focused on quantitative characterization of past material flows. Fewer analyses exist on past and prospective quantification of stocks of materials in-use. Some of these analyses explore the composition of products' stocks, but a focus on the characterization of material stocks and its relation with service delivery is often neglected. We propose the use of the methods of human demography to characterize material stocks, defined herein as stock demographics, exploring the insights that this approach could provide for the sustainable management of materials. We exemplify an application of stock demographics by characterizing the composition and service delivery of iron, steel, and aluminum stocks of cars in Great Britain, 2002-2012. The results show that in this period the stock has become heavier, it is traveling less, and it is idle for more time. The visualization of material stocks' dynamics demonstrates the pace of product replacement as a function of its usefulness and enables the formulation of policy interventions and the exploration of future trends.

  10. 12 CFR 950.11 - Capital stock requirements; unilateral redemption of excess stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Capital stock requirements; unilateral redemption of excess stock. 950.11 Section 950.11 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL... affairs of the Bank shall be administered fairly and impartially and without discrimination in favor of or...

  11. Financial liberalization and stock market cross-correlation: MF-DCCA analysis based on Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Zhang, Shuhua; Lv, Dayong; Lu, Xinsheng

    2018-02-01

    Based on the implementation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in China, this paper examines the effects of financial liberalization on stock market comovement using both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) methods. Results based on MF-DFA confirm the multifractality of Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, and the market efficiency of Shanghai stock market increased after the implementation of this connect program. Besides, analysis based on MF-DCCA has verified the existence of persistent cross-correlation between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, and the cross-correlation gets stronger after the launch of this liberalization program. Finally, we find that fat-tail distribution is the main source of multifractality in the cross-correlations before the stock connect program, while long-range correlation contributes to the multifractality after this program.

  12. Effect of External Economic-Field Cycle and Market Temperature on Stock-Price Hysteresis: Monte Carlo Simulation on the Ising Spin Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Punya Jaroenjittichai, Atchara; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut

    2017-09-01

    In this work, the stock-price versus economic-field hysteresis was investigated. The Ising spin Hamiltonian was utilized as the level of ‘disagreement’ in describing investors’ behaviour. The Ising spin directions were referred to an investor’s intention to perform his action on trading his stock. The periodic economic variation was also considered via the external economic-field in the Ising model. The stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was performed on Ising spins, where the steady-state excess demand and supply as well as the stock-price were extracted via the magnetization. From the results, the economic-field parameters and market temperature were found to have significant effect on the dynamic magnetization and stock-price behaviour. Specifically, the hysteresis changes from asymmetric to symmetric loops with increasing market temperature and economic-field strength. However, the hysteresis changes from symmetric to asymmetric loops with increasing the economic-field frequency, when either temperature or economic-field strength is large enough, and returns to symmetric shape at very high frequencies. This suggests competitive effects among field and temperature factors on the hysteresis characteristic, implying multi-dimensional complicated non-trivial relationship among inputs-outputs. As is seen, the results reported (over extensive range) can be used as basis/guideline for further analysis/quantifying how economic-field and market-temperature affect the stock-price distribution on the course of economic cycle.

  13. Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

    In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

  14. The past and future of food stocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Human societies rely on food reserves and the importation of agricultural goods as means to cope with crop failures and associated food shortage. While food trade has been the subject of intensive investigations in recent years, food reserves remain poorly quantified. It is unclear how food stocks are changing and whether they are declining. In this study we use food stock records for 92 products to reconstruct 50 years of aggregated food reserves, expressed in caloric equivalent (kcal), at the regional and global scales. A detailed statistical analysis demonstrates that the overall regional and global per-capita food stocks are stationary, challenging a widespread impression that food reserves are shrinking. We develop a statistically-sound stochastic representation of stock dynamics and take the stock-halving probability as a measure of the natural variability of the process. We find that there is a 20% probability that the global per-capita stocks will be halved by 2050. There are, however, some strong regional differences: Western Europe and the region encompassing North Africa and the Middle East have smaller halving probabilities and smaller per-capita stocks, while North America and Oceania have greater halving probabilities and greater per-capita stocks than the global average. Africa exhibits low per-capita stocks and relatively high probability of stock halving by 2050, which reflects a state of higher food insecurity in this continent.

  15. A combination SMS and transportation reimbursement intervention to improve HIV care following abnormal CD4 test results in rural Uganda: a prospective observational cohort study.

    PubMed

    Siedner, Mark J; Santorino, Data; Lankowski, Alexander J; Kanyesigye, Michael; Bwana, Mwebesa B; Haberer, Jessica E; Bangsberg, David R

    2015-07-06

    Up to 50 % of HIV-infected persons in sub-Saharan Africa are lost from care between HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Structural barriers, including cost of transportation to clinic and poor communication systems, are major contributors. We conducted a prospective, pragmatic, before-and-after clinical trial to evaluate a combination mobile health and transportation reimbursement intervention to improve care at a publicly operated HIV clinic in Uganda. Patients undergoing CD4 count testing were enrolled, and clinicians selected a result threshold that would prompt early return for ART initiation or further care. Participants enrolled in the pre-intervention period (January - August 2012) served as a control group. Participants in the intervention period (September 2012 - November 2013) were randomized to receive daily short message service (SMS) messages for up to seven days in one of three formats: 1) messages reporting an abnormal result directly, 2) personal identification number-protected messages reporting an abnormal result, or 3) messages reading "ABCDEFG" to confidentially convey an abnormal result. Participants returning within seven days of their first message received transportation reimbursements (about $6USD). Our primary outcomes of interest were time to return to clinic and time to ART initiation. There were 45 participants in the pre-intervention period and 138 participants in the intervention period (46, 49, and 43 in the direct, PIN, and coded groups, respectively) with low CD4 count results. Median time to clinic return was 33 days (IQR 11-49) in the pre-intervention period and 6 days (IQR 3-16) in the intervention period (P < 0.001); and median time to ART initiation was 47 days (IQR 11-75) versus 12 days (IQR 5-19), (P < 0.001). In multivariable models, participants in the intervention period had earlier return to clinic (AHR 2.32, 95 %CI 1.53 to 3.51) and earlier time to ART initiation (AHR 2.27, 95 %CI 1.38 to 3

  16. Obituary: Jürgen Stock 1923-2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenzen, D. H.

    2004-09-01

    On April 19, 2004 Jürgen Stock passed away at the age of 80. Jürgen Stock was never on the payroll of ESO, but he had tremendous impact on the early years of the organisation. In 1951 Stock did his PhD in Hamburg - his supervisor was Otto Heckmann, who later became the first Director General of ESO. After some years in Cleveland - and with a one year interval at Boyden Observatory, South Africa - Stock was asked by Gerard Kuiper to do a site test in Chile. The University of Chicago looked for a mountain in the Santiago area to put up a 1.5-m-telescope in the southern hemisphere. Stock accepted and took off for Chile within days. The trip, that was supposed to last a few weeks, lasted more than three years. "As a result, the world's largest collection of astronomical instruments is now in Chile", recalled Jürgen Stock four decades later.

  17. Comparative study on DuPont analysis and DEA models for measuring stock performance using financial ratio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arsad, Roslah; Shaari, Siti Nabilah Mohd; Isa, Zaidi

    2017-11-01

    Determining stock performance using financial ratio is challenging for many investors and researchers. Financial ratio can indicate the strengths and weaknesses of a company's stock performance. There are five categories of financial ratios namely liquidity, efficiency, leverage, profitability and market ratios. It is important to interpret the ratio correctly for proper financial decision making. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and DuPont analysis Models. The study is conducted in 2015 involving 116 consumer products companies listed in Bursa Malaysia. The estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis computes the efficiency scores and ranks the companies accordingly. The Alirezaee and Afsharian's method of analysis based Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) where Constant Return to Scale (CRS) is employed. The DuPont analysis is a traditional tool for measuring the operating performance of companies. In this study, DuPont analysis is used to evaluate three different aspects such as profitability, efficiency of assets utilization and financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is also calculated in DuPont analysis. This study finds that both analysis models provide different rankings of the selected samples. Hypothesis testing based on Pearson's correlation, indicates that there is no correlation between rankings produced by DEA and DuPont analysis. The DEA ranking model proposed by Alirezaee and Asharian is unstable. The method cannot provide complete ranking because the values of Balance Index is equal and zero.

  18. 26 CFR 1.305-1 - Stock dividends.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... exchange for its convertible preferred class B stock. Under the terms of the class B stock, its conversion... 26 Internal Revenue 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Stock dividends. 1.305-1 Section 1.305-1...) INCOME TAXES Effects on Recipients § 1.305-1 Stock dividends. (a) In general. Under section 305, a...

  19. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  20. 12 CFR 725.5 - Capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Capital stock. 725.5 Section 725.5 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION CENTRAL LIQUIDITY FACILITY § 725.5 Capital stock. (a) The capital stock of the Facility is divided...

  1. Transfer of risk: "right to sue" legislation and managed care organization stock performance.

    PubMed

    Weeks, W B; Nells, T; Wallace, A E

    2001-01-01

    We examined whether Congress's consideration of legislation that gave consumers the right to sue managed care organizations impacted the performance of these companies' stocks relative to that of the market. For each company examined, the total return related to such legislation was negative and substantially lower than that expected from the market model; losses in market value were from 17 percent to 48 percent for individual companies and 22 percent for a capitalization-weighted portfolio. The study suggests that equity markets responded to the proposed legislation quickly and that the impact of proposed legislation is felt through loss of market value and increased corporate risk.

  2. The alarming decline of Mediterranean fish stocks.

    PubMed

    Vasilakopoulos, Paraskevas; Maravelias, Christos D; Tserpes, George

    2014-07-21

    In recent years, fisheries management has succeeded in stabilizing and even improving the state of many global fisheries resources [1-5]. This is particularly evident in areas where stocks are exploited in compliance with scientific advice and strong institutional structures are in place [1, 5]. In Europe, the well-managed northeast (NE) Atlantic fish stocks have been recovering in response to decreasing fishing pressure over the past decade [3-6], albeit with a long way to go for a universal stock rebuild [3, 7]. Meanwhile, little is known about the temporal development of the European Mediterranean stocks, whose management relies on input controls that are often poorly enforced. Here, we perform a meta-analysis of 42 European Mediterranean stocks of nine species in 1990-2010, showing that exploitation rate has been steadily increasing, selectivity (proportional exploitation of juveniles) has been deteriorating, and stocks have been shrinking. We implement species-specific simulation models to quantify changes in exploitation rate and selectivity that would maximize long-term yields and halt stock depletion. We show that stocks would be more resilient to fishing and produce higher long-term yields if harvested a few years after maturation because current selectivity is far from optimal, especially for demersal stocks. The European Common Fisheries Policy that has assisted in improving the state of NE Atlantic fish stocks in the past 10 years has failed to deliver similar results for Mediterranean stocks managed under the same policy. Limiting juvenile exploitation, advancing management plans, and strengthening compliance, control, and enforcement could promote fisheries sustainability in the Mediterranean. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  4. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  5. Plunges in the Bombay stock exchange: Characteristics and indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Kinjal; Sharma, Chandradew; Bittu, N.

    2017-09-01

    We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of eight years from January 2006-March 2014. Using the data of the daily returns of a period of eight years we investigate the financial cross-correlation co-efficients among the sectors of BSE and Price by Earning (PE) ratio of BSE Sensex. We show that the behavior of these quantities during normal periods and during crisis is very different. We show that the PE ratio shows a particular distinctive trend in the approach to a crash of the financial market and can therefore be used as an indicator of an impending catastrophe. We propose that a model of analysis of crashes in a financial market can be built using two parameters: (i) the PE ratio and (ii) the largest eigenvalue of the cross-correlation matrix.

  6. Analysing News for Stock Market Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramalingam, V. V.; Pandian, A.; Dwivedi, shivam; Bhatt, Jigar P.

    2018-04-01

    Stock market means the aggregation of all sellers and buyers of stocks representing their ownership claims on the business. To be completely absolute about the investment on these stocks, proper knowledge about them as well as their pricing, for both present and future is very essential. Large amount of data is collected and parsed to obtain this essential information regarding the fluctuations in the stock market. This data can be any news or public opinions in general. Recently, many methods have been used, especially big unstructured data methods to predict the stock market values. We introduce another method of focusing on deriving the best statistical learning model for predicting the future values. The data set used is very large unstructured data collected from an online social platform, commonly known as Quindl. The data from this platform is then linked to a csv fie and cleaned to obtain the essential information for stock market prediction. The method consists of carrying out the NLP (Natural Language Processing) of the data and then making it easier for the system to understand, finds and identifies the correlation in between this data and the stock market fluctuations. The model is implemented using Python Programming Language throughout the entire project to obtain flexibility and convenience of the system.

  7. 25 CFR 700.717 - Stocking rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Stocking rate. 700.717 Section 700.717 Indians THE OFFICE... Grazing § 700.717 Stocking rate. The Commissioner will determine livestock carrying capacity for each range unit and set the stocking rate and adjust that rate as conditions warrant. The Commissioner may...

  8. 25 CFR 700.717 - Stocking rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Stocking rate. 700.717 Section 700.717 Indians THE OFFICE... Grazing § 700.717 Stocking rate. The Commissioner will determine livestock carrying capacity for each range unit and set the stocking rate and adjust that rate as conditions warrant. The Commissioner may...

  9. 25 CFR 700.717 - Stocking rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Stocking rate. 700.717 Section 700.717 Indians THE OFFICE... Grazing § 700.717 Stocking rate. The Commissioner will determine livestock carrying capacity for each range unit and set the stocking rate and adjust that rate as conditions warrant. The Commissioner may...

  10. 25 CFR 700.717 - Stocking rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Stocking rate. 700.717 Section 700.717 Indians THE OFFICE... Grazing § 700.717 Stocking rate. The Commissioner will determine livestock carrying capacity for each range unit and set the stocking rate and adjust that rate as conditions warrant. The Commissioner may...

  11. 27 CFR 24.217 - Vinegar stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Vinegar stock. 24.217... OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS WINE Production of Other Than Standard Wine § 24.217 Vinegar stock. Vinegar... commercial standards for the production of vinegar. Vinegar stock may be made only by the addition of water...

  12. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  13. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  14. Abdominal musculature abnormalities as a cause of groin pain in athletes. Inguinal hernias and pubalgia.

    PubMed

    Taylor, D C; Meyers, W C; Moylan, J A; Lohnes, J; Bassett, F H; Garrett, W E

    1991-01-01

    There has been increasing interest within the European sports medicine community regarding the etiology and treatment of groin pain in the athlete. Groin pain is most commonly caused by musculotendinous strains of the adductors and other muscles crossing the hip joint, but may also be related to abdominal wall abnormalities. Cases may be termed "pubalgia" if physical examination does not reveal inguinal hernia and there is an absence of other etiology for groin pain. We present nine cases of patients who underwent herniorrhaphies for groin pain. Two patients had groin pain without evidence of a hernia preoperatively (pubalgia). In the remaining seven patients we determined the presence of a hernia by physical examination. At operation, eight patients were found to have inguinal hernias. One patient had no hernia but had partial avulsion of the internal oblique fibers from their insertion at the public tubercle. The average interval from operation to return to full activity was 11 weeks. All patients returned to full activity within 3 months of surgery. One patient had persistent symptoms of mild incisional tenderness, but otherwise there were no recurrences, complications, or persistence of symptoms. Abnormalities of the abdominal wall, including inguinal hernias and microscopic tears or avulsions of the internal oblique muscle, can be an overlooked source of groin pain in the athlete. Operative treatment of this condition with herniorrhaphy can return the athlete to his sport within 3 months.

  15. Stocking chart for upland central hardwoods

    Treesearch

    Martin E. Dale; Donald E. Hilt

    1989-01-01

    The upland hardwoods stocking chart, introduced by Gingrich in 1967, has become one of the forest manager's most useful tools. The chart allows you to determine the condition of the present stand in relation to a stocking standard. The stocking of a stand is extremely helpful in prescribing various silvicultural treatments such as intermediate thinnings,...

  16. Salient features of dependence in daily US stock market indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Cunado, Juncal; de Gracia, Fernando Perez

    2013-08-01

    This paper deals with the analysis of long range dependence in the US stock market. We focus first on the log-values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard and Poors 500 and Nasdaq indices, daily from February, 1971 to February, 2007. The volatility processes are examined based on the squared and the absolute values of the returns series, and the stability of the parameters across time is also investigated in both the level and the volatility processes. A method that permits us to estimate fractional differencing parameters in the context of structural breaks is conducted in this paper. Finally, the “day of the week” effect is examined by looking at the order of integration for each day of the week, providing also a new modeling approach to describe the dependence in this context.

  17. Horizontal/Vertical Stock Fund Cost Comparison

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1974-08-01

    units. Installation Supply Division account and other instal- lation operated activities: Self -Service Supply Store, Clothing Initial...installation supply operations are the Self -Service Supply Center, Clothing Sales Store, Central Issue Facility, and Clothing Initial Issue Point. Stock- age...stocks, stocks for installation operated supply activities such as the Self Service Supply Store, Clothing Sales Store and

  18. Structural changes in the minimal spanning tree and the hierarchical network in the Korean stock market around the global financial crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobi, Ashadun; Maeng, Seong Eun; Ha, Gyeong Gyun; Lee, Jae Woo

    2015-04-01

    This paper considers stock prices in the Korean stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis by focusing on three time periods: before, during, and after the crisis. Complex networks are extracted from cross-correlation coefficients between the normalized logarithmic return of the stock price time series of firms. The minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and the hierarchical network (HN) are generated from cross-correlation coefficients. Before and after the crisis, securities firms are located at the center of the MST. During the crisis, however, the center of the MST changes to a firm in heavy industry and construction. During the crisis, the MST shrinks in comparison to that before and that after the crisis. This topological change in the MST during the crisis reflects a distinct effect of the global financial crisis. The cophenetic correlation coefficient increases during the crisis, indicating an increase in the hierarchical structure during in this period. When crisis hits the market, firms behave synchronously, and their correlations are higher than those during a normal period.

  19. Stock Issues in Aristotle's Rhetoric

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harpine, Bill

    1977-01-01

    Defines "stock issue" by the manner in which they function in Aristotle's theory, reviews examples of modern theories of stock issues, examines previous investigations of the "Rhetoric," and analyzes Aristotle's approach to this aspect of argumentation. (MH)

  20. Healthcare stocks expected to remain strong.

    PubMed

    Pallarito, K

    1991-05-27

    While healthcare stocks are likely to remain at the top of Wall Street's list of favorites, healthcare analysts and money managers say they don't expect to see the same quality of healthcare companies issuing stock the rest of the year. They say that in the coming months, more companies of lesser quality will sell stock at inflated prices, compared with their earnings.

  1. Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

    2018-06-01

    Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

  2. Stock markets are not what we think they are: the key roles of cross-ownership and corporate treasury stock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2005-03-01

    We describe, document and statistically test three mechanisms by which corporations can influence or even control stock prices: (i) Parent and holding companies wield control over other publicly traded companies. (ii) Through clever management of treasury stock based on buyback programs and stock issuance, stock price fluctuations can be amplified or curbed. The shock of September 11, 2001 is used to test this effect. (iii) Finally, historical evidence shows that there is a close interdependence between the level of stock prices on the one hand and merger and acquisition activity on the other hand: on average, a 10% increase in the number of mergers brings about a 3% increase in the overall level of stock prices. If one adds up buybacks, initial public offerings and takeover transactions, all of which depend upon strategic decisions taken by corporate management, they represent on average 7.2% of the trade on the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1987-2003 (as much as 12% in specific years such as 1988). This perspective, in which the Boards of Directors of major companies “shepherd” the market, offers a natural interpretation of the so-called “herd behavior” observed in stock markets. The traditional view holds that, by driving profit expectations, corporations have an indirect role in shaping the market. In this paper, we suggest that over the last decades they became more and more the direct moving force of stock markets.

  3. Stocking of Offsite Waters for Hungry Horse Dam Mitigation; Creston National Fish Hatchery, 2002-2003 Annual Report.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service Staff,

    2004-02-01

    Mitigation Objective 1: Produce Native Westslope Cutthroat Trout at Creston NFH--Task: Acquire eggs and rear up to 100,000 Westslope Cutthroat trout annually for offsite mitigation stocking. Accomplishments: A total of 141,000 westslope cutthroat eggs (M012 strain) was acquired from the State of Montana Washoe Park State Fish Hatchery in May 2002 for this objective. We also received an additional 22,000 westslope cutthroat eggs, MO12 strain naturalized, from feral fish at Rogers Lake, Flathead County, Montana. The fish were reared using approved fish culture techniques as defined in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Fish Hatchery Management guidelines. Survival from themore » swim up fry stage to stocking was 95.6%. We achieved a 0.80 feed conversion this year on a new diet, Skretting ''Nutra Plus''. Post release survival and angler success is monitored annually by Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) and the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribe (CSKT). Stocking numbers and locations vary yearly based on results of biological monitoring and adaptive management. Mitigation Objective 2: Produce Rainbow Trout at Creston NFH--Task: Acquire and rear up to 100,000 Rainbow trout annually for offsite mitigation in closed basin waters. Accomplishments: A total of 54,000 rainbow trout eggs (Arlee strain) was acquired from the Ennis National Fish Hatchery in December 2002 for this objective. The fish were reared using approved fish culture techniques as defined in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Fish Hatchery Management guidelines. Survival from the swim up fry stage to stocking was 99.9%. We achieved a 0.79 feed conversion this year on a new diet, Skretting ''Nutra Plus''. Arlee rainbow trout are being used for this objective because the stocking locations are terminal basin reservoirs and habitat conditions and returns to the creel are unsuitable for native cutthroat. Post release survival and angler success is monitored annually by the Confederated Salish and

  4. Effects of Successive Rotation Regimes on Carbon Stocks in Eucalyptus Plantations in Subtropical China Measured over a Full Rotation.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaoqiong; Ye, Duo; Liang, Hongwen; Zhu, Hongguang; Qin, Lin; Zhu, Yuling; Wen, Yuanguang

    2015-01-01

    Plantations play an important role in carbon sequestration and the global carbon cycle. However, there is a dilemma in that most plantations are managed on short rotations, and the carbon sequestration capacities of these short-rotation plantations remain understudied. Eucalyptus has been widely planted in the tropics and subtropics due to its rapid growth, high adaptability, and large economic return. Eucalyptus plantations are primarily planted in successive rotations with a short rotation length of 6~8 years. In order to estimate the carbon-stock potential of eucalyptus plantations over successive rotations, we chose a first rotation (FR) and a second rotation (SR) stand and monitored the carbon stock dynamics over a full rotation from 1998 to 2005. Our results showed that carbon stock in eucalyptus trees (TC) did not significantly differ between rotations, while understory vegetation (UC) and soil organic matter (SOC) stored less carbon in the SR (1.01 vs. 2.76 Mg.ha(-1) and 70.68 vs. 81.08 Mg. ha(-1), respectively) and forest floor carbon (FFC) conversely stored more (2.80 vs. 2.34 Mg. ha(-1)). The lower UC and SOC stocks in the SR stand resulted in 1.13 times lower overall ecosystem carbon stock. Mineral soils and overstory trees were the two dominant carbon pools in eucalyptus plantations, accounting for 73.77%~75.06% and 20.50%~22.39%, respectively, of the ecosystem carbon pool. However, the relative contribution (to the ecosystem pool) of FFC stocks increased 1.38 times and that of UC decreased 2.30 times in the SR versus FR stand. These carbon pool changes over successive rotations were attributed to intensive successive rotation regimes of eucalyptus plantations. Our eight year study suggests that for the sustainable development of short-rotation plantations, a sound silvicultural strategy is required to achieve the best combination of high wood yield and carbon stock potential.

  5. Effects of Successive Rotation Regimes on Carbon Stocks in Eucalyptus Plantations in Subtropical China Measured over a Full Rotation

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xiaoqiong; Ye, Duo; Liang, Hongwen; Zhu, Hongguang; Qin, Lin; Zhu, Yuling; Wen, Yuanguang

    2015-01-01

    Plantations play an important role in carbon sequestration and the global carbon cycle. However, there is a dilemma in that most plantations are managed on short rotations, and the carbon sequestration capacities of these short-rotation plantations remain understudied. Eucalyptus has been widely planted in the tropics and subtropics due to its rapid growth, high adaptability, and large economic return. Eucalyptus plantations are primarily planted in successive rotations with a short rotation length of 6~8 years. In order to estimate the carbon-stock potential of eucalyptus plantations over successive rotations, we chose a first rotation (FR) and a second rotation (SR) stand and monitored the carbon stock dynamics over a full rotation from 1998 to 2005. Our results showed that carbon stock in eucalyptus trees (TC) did not significantly differ between rotations, while understory vegetation (UC) and soil organic matter (SOC) stored less carbon in the SR (1.01 vs. 2.76 Mg.ha-1 and 70.68 vs. 81.08 Mg. ha-1, respectively) and forest floor carbon (FFC) conversely stored more (2.80 vs. 2.34 Mg. ha-1). The lower UC and SOC stocks in the SR stand resulted in 1.13 times lower overall ecosystem carbon stock. Mineral soils and overstory trees were the two dominant carbon pools in eucalyptus plantations, accounting for 73.77%~75.06% and 20.50%~22.39%, respectively, of the ecosystem carbon pool. However, the relative contribution (to the ecosystem pool) of FFC stocks increased 1.38 times and that of UC decreased 2.30 times in the SR versus FR stand. These carbon pool changes over successive rotations were attributed to intensive successive rotation regimes of eucalyptus plantations. Our eight year study suggests that for the sustainable development of short-rotation plantations, a sound silvicultural strategy is required to achieve the best combination of high wood yield and carbon stock potential. PMID:26186367

  6. A stocking guide for eastern white pine

    Treesearch

    James S. Philbrook; James P. Barrett; William B. Leak

    1973-01-01

    A stocking chart for eastern white pine is presented and described. The chart shows basal areas and numbers of trees by mean stand diameter, representing the upper limit in stocking for practical management (A curve) and minimum stocking for full site utilization (B curve).

  7. 26 CFR 1.422-2 - Incentive stock options defined.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Incentive stock options defined. 1.422-2 Section... (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Certain Stock Options § 1.422-2 Incentive stock options defined. (a) Incentive stock option defined—(1) In general. The term incentive stock option means an option that meets the...

  8. Femoroacetabular impingement in 45 professional athletes: associated pathologies and return to sport following arthroscopic decompression

    PubMed Central

    Schenker, Mara; Briggs, Karen; Kuppersmith, David

    2007-01-01

    Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) occurs when an osseous abnormality of the proximal femur (cam) or acetabulum (pincer) triggers damage to the acetabular labrum and articular cartilage in the hip. Although the precise etiology of FAI is not well understood, both types of FAI are common in athletes presenting with hip pain, loss of range-of-motion, and disability in athletics. An open surgical approach to decompressing FAI has shown good clinical outcomes; however, this highly invasive approach inherently may delay or preclude a high level athlete’s return to play. The purpose of this study was to define associated pathologies and determine if an arthroscopic approach to treating FAI can allow professional athletes to return to high-level sport. Hip arthroscopy for the treatment of FAI allows professional athletes to return to professional sport. Between October 2000 and September 2005, 45 professional athletes underwent hip arthroscopy for the decompression of FAI. Operative and return-to-play data were obtained from patient records. Average time to follow-up was 1.6 years (range: 6 months to 5.5 years). Forty two (93%) athletes returned to professional competition following arthroscopic decompression of FAI. Three athletes did not return to play; however, all had diffuse osteoarthritis at the time of arthroscopy. Thirty-five athletes (78%) remain active in professional sport at an average follow-up of 1.6 years. Arthroscopic treatment of FAI allows professional athletes to return to professional sport. PMID:17479250

  9. The volatility of stock market prices.

    PubMed

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-02

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

  10. Congenital hypothyroidism in a kitten resulting in decreased IGF-I concentration and abnormal liver function tests.

    PubMed

    Quante, Saskia; Fracassi, Federico; Gorgas, Daniela; Kircher, Patrick R; Boretti, Felicitas S; Ohlerth, Stefanie; Reusch, Claudia E

    2010-06-01

    A 7-month-old male kitten was presented with chronic constipation and retarded growth. Clinical examination revealed disproportional dwarfism with mild skeletal abnormalities and a palpable thyroid gland. The presumptive diagnosis of congenital hypothyroidism was confirmed by low serum total thyroxine (tT(4)) concentration prior to and after the administration of thyroid stimulation hormone (TSH), increased endogenous TSH concentration and abnormal thyroid scintigraphic scan. The kitten had abnormal liver function tests and decreased insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) concentration, both of which returned to normal in correspondence with an improvement of the clinical signs after 6 weeks of thyroxine therapy. Congenital hypothyroidism is a rare disease that may present with considerable variation in clinical manifestation. In cases in which clinical signs are ambiguous, disorders such as portosystemic shunt and hyposomatotropism have to be taken into account as differential diagnosis. As hypothyroidism may be associated with abnormal liver function tests and low IGF-1 concentrations, test results have to be interpreted carefully. Copyright 2010 ISFM and AAFP. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. 12 CFR 7.2023 - Reverse stock splits.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Corporate Practices § 7.2023 Reverse stock splits. (a) Authority to engage in reverse stock splits. A national bank may engage in a reverse stock split if the transaction serves a legitimate corporate purpose and provides adequate dissenting shareholders' rights. (b) Legitimate corporate purpose. Examples of...

  12. Juvenile Chinook Salmon abundance in the northern Bering Sea: Implications for future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, James M.; Howard, Kathrine G.; Gann, Jeanette C.; Cieciel, Kristin C.; Templin, William D.; Guthrie, Charles M.

    2017-01-01

    Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance in the northern Bering Sea is used to provide insight into future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River. The status of Yukon River Chinook Salmon is of concern due to recent production declines and subsequent closures of commercial, sport, and personal use fisheries, and severe restrictions on subsistence fisheries in the Yukon River. Surface trawl catch data, mixed layer depth adjustments, and genetic stock mixtures are used to estimate juvenile abundance for the Canadian-origin stock group from the Yukon River. Abundance ranged from a low of 0.62 million in 2012 to a high of 2.58 million in 2013 with an overall average of 1.5 million from 2003 to 2015. Although abundance estimates indicate that average survival is relatively low (average of 5.2%), juvenile abundance was significantly correlated (r=0.87, p=0.005) with adult returns, indicating that much of the variability in survival occurs during early life-history stages (freshwater and initial marine). Juvenile abundance in the northern Bering Sea has increased since 2013 due to an increase in early life-history survival (average juveniles-per-spawner increased from 29 to 59). The increase in juvenile abundance is projected to produce larger runs and increased subsistence fishing opportunities for Chinook Salmon in the Yukon River as early as 2016.

  13. Economy with the time delay of information flow—The stock market case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miśkiewicz, Janusz

    2012-02-01

    Any decision process requires information about the past and present state of the system, but in an economy acquiring data and processing it is an expensive and time-consuming task. Therefore, the state of the system is often measured over some legal interval, analysed after the end of well defined time periods and the results announced much later before any strategic decision is envisaged. The various time delay roles have to be crucially examined. Here, a model of stock market coupled with an economy is investigated to emphasise the role of the time delay span on the information flow. It is shown that the larger the time delay the more important the collective behaviour of agents since one observes time oscillations in the absolute log-return autocorrelations.

  14. 21 CFR 880.5780 - Medical support stocking.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Devices § 880.5780 Medical support stocking. (a) Medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs—(1) Identification. A medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs is a device that is constructed of elastic material and designed to apply controlled pressure to...

  15. 21 CFR 880.5780 - Medical support stocking.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... Devices § 880.5780 Medical support stocking. (a) Medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs—(1) Identification. A medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs is a device that is constructed of elastic material and designed to apply controlled pressure to...

  16. 21 CFR 880.5780 - Medical support stocking.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Devices § 880.5780 Medical support stocking. (a) Medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs—(1) Identification. A medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs is a device that is constructed of elastic material and designed to apply controlled pressure to...

  17. 21 CFR 880.5780 - Medical support stocking.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... Devices § 880.5780 Medical support stocking. (a) Medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs—(1) Identification. A medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs is a device that is constructed of elastic material and designed to apply controlled pressure to...

  18. 21 CFR 880.5780 - Medical support stocking.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Devices § 880.5780 Medical support stocking. (a) Medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs—(1) Identification. A medical support stocking to prevent the pooling of blood in the legs is a device that is constructed of elastic material and designed to apply controlled pressure to...

  19. Another Look at the Volatility of Stock Prices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Investors are interested in the volatility of a stock for various reasons. One investor may desire to purchase a low volatility stock for peace of mind. Another may be interested in a high volatility stock in order to have the opportunity to buy low and sell high as the price of the stock oscillates. This author had the fortunate timing of reading…

  20. Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes.

    PubMed

    Rocchi, Jacopo; Tsui, Enoch Yan Lok; Saad, David

    2017-01-01

    To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the information flow across stock values to identify several different regimes. While small information flows is detected in most of the period, a dramatically different situation occurs in the proximity of global financial crises, where stock values exhibit strong and substantial interdependence for a prolonged period. This behavior is consistent with what one would generally expect from a complex system near criticality in physical systems, showing the long lasting effects of crashes on stock markets.

  1. Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes

    PubMed Central

    Tsui, Enoch Yan Lok; Saad, David

    2017-01-01

    To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the information flow across stock values to identify several different regimes. While small information flows is detected in most of the period, a dramatically different situation occurs in the proximity of global financial crises, where stock values exhibit strong and substantial interdependence for a prolonged period. This behavior is consistent with what one would generally expect from a complex system near criticality in physical systems, showing the long lasting effects of crashes on stock markets. PMID:28542278

  2. The dependence of Islamic and conventional stocks: A copula approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have found that Islamic stocks are dependent on conventional stocks and they appear to be more risky. In Asia, particularly in Islamic countries, research on dependence involving Islamic and non-Islamic stock markets is limited. The objective of this study is to investigate the dependence between financial times stock exchange Hijrah Shariah index and conventional stocks (EMAS and KLCI indices). Using the copula approach and a time series model for each marginal distribution function, the copula parameters were estimated. The Elliptical copula was selected to present the dependence structure of each pairing of the Islamic stock and conventional stock. Specifically, the Islamic versus conventional stocks (Shariah-EMAS and Shariah-KLCI) had lower dependence compared to conventional versus conventional stocks (EMAS-KLCI). These findings suggest that the occurrence of shocks in a conventional stock will not have strong impact on the Islamic stock.

  3. The trading time risks of stock investment in stock price drop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Tang, Nian-Sheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng; Li, Yun-Xian; Zhang, Wan

    2016-11-01

    This article investigates the trading time risk (TTR) of stock investment in the case of stock price drop of Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI) and Hushen300 data (CSI300), respectively. The escape time of stock price from the maximum to minimum in a data window length (DWL) is employed to measure the absolute TTR, the ratio of the escape time to data window length is defined as the relative TTR. Empirical probability density functions of the absolute and relative TTRs for the ˆDJI and CSI300 data evidence that (i) whenever the DWL increases, the absolute TTR increases, the relative TTR decreases otherwise; (ii) there is the monotonicity (or non-monotonicity) for the stability of the absolute (or relative) TTR; (iii) there is a peak distribution for shorter trading days and a two-peak distribution for longer trading days for the PDF of ratio; (iv) the trading days play an opposite role on the absolute (or relative) TTR and its stability between ˆDJI and CSI300 data.

  4. Online Stock Market Games for High Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lopus, Jane; Placone, Dennis

    2002-01-01

    Identifies a Web site providing information about stock market simulations for high school economics courses. Divides the information into two tables: (1) the structure of online stock market games; and (2) the determination of portfolio values of online stock market games. States that changes and updates are available at Web sites. (JEH)

  5. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  6. Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge

    2011-04-01

    This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.

  7. Statistical properties of trading activity in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xiaoqian; Cheng, Xueqi; Shen, Huawei; Wang, Zhaoyang

    2010-08-01

    We investigate the statistical properties of traders' trading behavior using cumulative distribution function(CDF). We analyze exchange data of 52 stocks for one-year period which contains non-manipulated stocks and manipulated stocks published by China Securities Regulatory Commission(CSRC). By analyzing the total number of transactions and the trading volume of each trader over a year, we find the cumulative distributions have power-law tails and the distributions between non-manipulated stocks and manipulated stocks are different. These findings can help us to detect the manipulated stocks.

  8. Feeling Abnormal: Simulation of Deviancy in Abnormal and Exceptionality Courses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernald, Charles D.

    1980-01-01

    Describes activity in which student in abnormal psychology and psychology of exceptional children classes personally experience being judged abnormal. The experience allows the students to remember relevant research, become sensitized to the feelings of individuals classified as deviant, and use caution in classifying individuals as abnormal.…

  9. Abnormal Uterine Bleeding

    MedlinePlus

    ... abnormal uterine bleeding? Abnormal uterine bleeding is any heavy or unusual bleeding from the uterus (through your ... one symptom of abnormal uterine bleeding. Having extremely heavy bleeding during your period can also be considered ...

  10. Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lestang, Thibault; Ragone, Francesco; Bréhier, Charles-Edouard; Herbert, Corentin; Bouchet, Freddy

    2018-04-01

    The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agencies may be interested by the return time of a 10 m flood of the Seine river in Paris. However, due to their scarcity, reliably estimating return times for rare events is very difficult using either observational data or direct numerical simulations. For rare events, an estimator for return times can be built from the extrema of the observable on trajectory blocks. Here, we show that this estimator can be improved to remain accurate for return times of the order of the block size. More importantly, we show that this approach can be generalised to estimate return times from numerical algorithms specifically designed to sample rare events. So far those algorithms often compute probabilities, rather than return times. The approach we propose provides a computationally extremely efficient way to estimate numerically the return times of rare events for a dynamical system, gaining several orders of magnitude of computational costs. We illustrate the method on two kinds of observables, instantaneous and time-averaged, using two different rare event algorithms, for a simple stochastic process, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As an example of realistic applications to complex systems, we finally discuss extreme values of the drag on an object in a turbulent flow.

  11. Stock structure of sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorbics, C.S.; Bodkin, James L.

    2001-01-01

    Sea otters in Alaska are recognized as a single subspecies (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) and currently managed as a single, interbreeding population. However, geographic and behavioral mechanisms undoubtably constrain sea otter movements on much smaller scales. This paper applies the phylogeographic method (Dizon et al. 1992) and considers distribution, population response, phenotype and genotype data to identify stocks of sea otters within Alaska. The evidence for separate stock identity is genotypic (all stocks), phenotypic (Southcentral and Southwest stocks), and geographic distribution (Southeast stock), whereas population response data are equivocal (all stocks). Differences in genotype frequencies and the presence of unique genotypes among areas indicate restricted gene flow. Genetic exchange may be limited by little or no movement across proposed stock boundaries and discontinuities in distribution at proposed stock boundaries. Skull size differences (phenotypic) between Southwest and Southcentral Alaska populations further support stock separation. Population response information was equivocal in either supporting or refuting stock identity. On the basis of this review, we suggest the following: (1) a Southeast stock extending from Dixon Entrance to Cape Yakataga; (2) a Southcentral stock extending from Cape Yakataga to Cape Douglas including Prince William Sound and Kenai peninsula coast; and (3) a Southwest stock including Alaska Peninsula coast, the Aleutians to Attu Island, Barren, Kodiak, Pribilof Islands, and Bristol Bay.

  12. 26 CFR 1.1032-3 - Disposition of stock or stock options in certain transactions not qualifying under any other...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... issuing corporation's stock from the issuing corporation for fair market value with cash contributed to... difference between the fair market value of the issuing corporation stock and the amount of money or the fair... market value of $100. To effectuate Y's agreement with C, X transfers to Y the X stock in a transaction...

  13. 26 CFR 1.1042-1T - Questions and answers relating to the sales of stock to employee stock ownership plans or certain...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... stock to employee stock ownership plans or certain cooperatives (temporary). 1.1042-1T Section 1.1042-1T...) INCOME TAXES Common Nontaxable Exchanges § 1.1042-1T Questions and answers relating to the sales of stock to employee stock ownership plans or certain cooperatives (temporary). Q-1: What does section 1042...

  14. Rapid diagnostic test supply chain and consumption study in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique: estimating stock shortages and identifying drivers of stock-outs.

    PubMed

    Hasselback, Leah; Crawford, Jessica; Chaluco, Timoteo; Rajagopal, Sharanya; Prosser, Wendy; Watson, Noel

    2014-08-02

    Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are particularly useful in low-resource settings where follow-through on traditional laboratory diagnosis is challenging or lacking. The availability of these tests depends on supply chain processes within the distribution system. In Mozambique, stock-outs of malaria RDTs are fairly common at health facilities. A longitudinal cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate drivers of stock shortages in the Cabo Delgado province. Data were collected from purposively sampled health facilities, using monthly cross-sectional surveys between October 2011 and May 2012. Estimates of lost consumption (consumption not met due to stock-outs) served as the primary quantitative indicator of stock shortages. This is a better measure of the magnitude of stock-outs than binary indicators that only measure frequency of stock-outs at a given facility. Using a case study based methodology, distribution system characteristics were qualitatively analysed to examine causes of stock-outs at the provincial, district and health centre levels. 15 health facilities were surveyed over 120 time points. Stock-out patterns varied by data source; average monthly proportions of 59%, 17% and 17% of health centres reported a stock-out on stock cards, laboratory and pharmacy forms, respectively. Estimates of lost consumption percentage were significantly high; ranging from 0% to 149%; with a weighted average of 78%. Each ten-unit increase in monthly-observed consumption was associated with a nine-unit increase in lost consumption percentage indicating that higher rates of stock-outs occurred at higher levels of observed consumption. Causes of stock-outs included inaccurate tracking of lost consumption, insufficient sophistication in inventory management and replenishment, and poor process compliance by facility workers, all arguably stemming from inadequate attention to the design and implementation of the distribution system. Substantially high levels of RDT

  15. Rapid diagnostic test supply chain and consumption study in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique: estimating stock shortages and identifying drivers of stock-outs

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are particularly useful in low-resource settings where follow-through on traditional laboratory diagnosis is challenging or lacking. The availability of these tests depends on supply chain processes within the distribution system. In Mozambique, stock-outs of malaria RDTs are fairly common at health facilities. A longitudinal cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate drivers of stock shortages in the Cabo Delgado province. Methods Data were collected from purposively sampled health facilities, using monthly cross-sectional surveys between October 2011 and May 2012. Estimates of lost consumption (consumption not met due to stock-outs) served as the primary quantitative indicator of stock shortages. This is a better measure of the magnitude of stock-outs than binary indicators that only measure frequency of stock-outs at a given facility. Using a case study based methodology, distribution system characteristics were qualitatively analysed to examine causes of stock-outs at the provincial, district and health centre levels. Results 15 health facilities were surveyed over 120 time points. Stock-out patterns varied by data source; average monthly proportions of 59%, 17% and 17% of health centres reported a stock-out on stock cards, laboratory and pharmacy forms, respectively. Estimates of lost consumption percentage were significantly high; ranging from 0% to 149%; with a weighted average of 78%. Each ten-unit increase in monthly-observed consumption was associated with a nine-unit increase in lost consumption percentage indicating that higher rates of stock-outs occurred at higher levels of observed consumption. Causes of stock-outs included inaccurate tracking of lost consumption, insufficient sophistication in inventory management and replenishment, and poor process compliance by facility workers, all arguably stemming from inadequate attention to the design and implementation of the distribution system

  16. Antiviral treatment normalizes neurophysiological but not movement abnormalities in simian immunodeficiency virus–infected monkeys

    PubMed Central

    Fox, Howard S.; Weed, Michael R.; Huitron-Resendiz, Salvador; Baig, Jamal; Horn, Thomas F.W.; Dailey, Peter J.; Bischofberger, Norbert; Henriksen, Steven J.

    2000-01-01

    Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection of rhesus monkeys provides an excellent model of the central nervous system (CNS) consequences of HIV infection. To discern the relationship between viral load and abnormalities induced in the CNS by the virus, we infected animals with SIV and later instituted antiviral treatment to lower peripheral viral load. Measurement of sensory-evoked potentials, assessing CNS neuronal circuitry, revealed delayed latencies after infection that could be reversed by lowering viral load. Cessation of treatment led to the reappearance of these abnormalities. In contrast, the decline in general motor activity induced by SIV infection was unaffected by antiviral treatment. An acute increase in the level of the chemokine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) was found in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) relative to plasma in the infected animals at the peak of acute viremia, likely contributing to an early influx of immune cells into the CNS. Examination of the brains of the infected animals after return of the electrophysiological abnormalities revealed diverse viral and inflammatory findings. Although some of the physiological abnormalities resulting from SIV infection can be at least temporarily reversed by lowering viral load, the viral-host interactions initiated by infection may result in long-lasting changes in CNS-mediated functions. PMID:10880046

  17. Antiviral treatment normalizes neurophysiological but not movement abnormalities in simian immunodeficiency virus-infected monkeys.

    PubMed

    Fox, H S; Weed, M R; Huitron-Resendiz, S; Baig, J; Horn, T F; Dailey, P J; Bischofberger, N; Henriksen, S J

    2000-07-01

    Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection of rhesus monkeys provides an excellent model of the central nervous system (CNS) consequences of HIV infection. To discern the relationship between viral load and abnormalities induced in the CNS by the virus, we infected animals with SIV and later instituted antiviral treatment to lower peripheral viral load. Measurement of sensory-evoked potentials, assessing CNS neuronal circuitry, revealed delayed latencies after infection that could be reversed by lowering viral load. Cessation of treatment led to the reappearance of these abnormalities. In contrast, the decline in general motor activity induced by SIV infection was unaffected by antiviral treatment. An acute increase in the level of the chemokine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) was found in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) relative to plasma in the infected animals at the peak of acute viremia, likely contributing to an early influx of immune cells into the CNS. Examination of the brains of the infected animals after return of the electrophysiological abnormalities revealed diverse viral and inflammatory findings. Although some of the physiological abnormalities resulting from SIV infection can be at least temporarily reversed by lowering viral load, the viral-host interactions initiated by infection may result in long-lasting changes in CNS-mediated functions.

  18. Stocking, growth, and yield of oak stands

    Treesearch

    Samuel F. Gingrich

    1971-01-01

    An appraisal of stocking in even-aged upland oak stands is a prerequisite for determining the cultural needs of a given stand. Most oak stands have sufficient stocking to utilize the site, but are deficient in high-quality trees. Thinning such stands offers a good opportunity to upgrade the relative quality of the growing stock and enhance the growth and yield...

  19. Factors influencing donor return.

    PubMed

    Schlumpf, Karen S; Glynn, Simone A; Schreiber, George B; Wright, David J; Randolph Steele, Whitney; Tu, Yongling; Hermansen, Sigurd; Higgins, Martha J; Garratty, George; Murphy, Edward L

    2008-02-01

    To predict future blood donation behavior and improve donor retention, it is important to understand the determinants of donor return. A self-administered questionnaire was completed in 2003 by 7905 current donors. With data mining methods, all factors measured by the survey were ranked as possible predictors of actual return within 12 months. Significant factors were analyzed with logistic regression to determine predictors of intention and of actual return. Younger and minority donors were less likely to return in 12 months. Predictors of donor return were higher prior donation frequency, higher intention to return, a convenient place to donate, and having a good donation experience. Most factors associated with actual donor return were also associated with a high intention to return. Although not significant for actual return, feeling a responsibility to help others, higher empathetic concern, and a feeling that being a blood donor means more than just donating blood were related to high intention to return. Prior donation frequency, intention to return, donation experience, and having a convenient location appear to significantly predict donor return. Clearly, donor behavior is dependent on more than one factor alone. Altruistic behavior, empathy, and social responsibility items did not enter our model to predict actual return. A donor's stated intention to give again is positively related to actual return and, while not a perfect measure, might be a useful proxy when donor return cannot be determined.

  20. Impacts of Northern Pike on stocked Rainbow Trout in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scheibel, Natalie C.; Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Davis, Jacob L.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Establishment of nonnative Northern Pike Esox lucius in Pactola Reservoir, South Dakota, has prompted concern among biologists about the influence of this species on the lake’s intensively managed salmonid fisheries. Ancedotal information suggests that catch rates of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have declined while mean size and abundance of Northern Pike has increased, although quantitative information on diet and growth of the Northern Pike population is lacking. To address potential interactions between Northern Pike and Rainbow Trout, we assessed size-dependent predation by Northern Pike on Rainbow Trout and determined the relative energetic contribution of stocked Rainbow Trout to Northern Pike growth using bioenergetics modeling. Stable isotopes combined with traditional diet analyses revealed that smaller Northern Pike (<600 mm TL) consumed primarily centrarchids and Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax, and Rainbow Trout contributed less than 10% to their annual energy consumption. In contrast, larger Northern Pike (≥600 mm TL) consumed primarily Rainbow Trout, which accounted for 56% of their annual energy consumption. Combining estimates of Northern Pike predation with production costs of catchable-size Rainbow Trout revealed that annual economic losses ranged from US$15,259 to $24,801 per year. Over its lifespan, an age-10 Northern Pike was estimated to consume ~117 Rainbow Trout worth approximately $340. Thus, Northern Pike predation substantially influences salmonid management initiatives and is likely a primary factor contributing to reduced Rainbow Trout abundance and return to anglers in Pactola Reservoir. Strategies for reducing Northern Pike predation on Rainbow Trout include increasing the size of stocked fish or altering the timing and spatial distribution of stocking events.

  1. 24 CFR 1000.314 - What is formula current assisted stock?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... recipient and are under management as indicated in the Formula Response Form. Formula current assisted stock... stock? 1000.314 Section 1000.314 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban... current assisted stock? Formula current assisted stock is current assisted stock as described in § 1000...

  2. Fractal patterns in Stock Intertrading Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, Ainslie; Lee, Youngki; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

    2003-03-01

    We study intertrades times (ITT) of stock trades of a range of companies included in the New York Stock Exchange's Trades and Quotes (TAQ) database. The time between transactions is an indicator of the dynamics of the market, and in the field of econometrics, intertrade durations play a key role in the understanding of the market activity and microstructure. Previous work has mainly focused on the properties of price changes of individual company stocks as well as global financial indices (e.g. SP500, DJ etc.). We hypothesize that there is a relation between the dynamics of price change and the trading activity. To investigate this relation we first study the statistical features of ITT data. The TAQ database covers all transactions on the NSE, AMEX, NASDAQ and the US regional exchanges. We have performed a preliminary analysis of 100 company stocks from a range of industries of the US economy selecting predominantly those companies which have large market capitalisations (MC). We focus on companies with large MC, since the dynamics of the price change and trading activity of stocks of such companies has a considerable impact on the market behaviour.

  3. 26 CFR 1.1296-2 - Definition of marketable stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Definition of marketable stock. 1.1296-2 Section... Definition of marketable stock. (a) General rule. For purposes of section 1296, the term marketable stock means— (1) Passive foreign investment company (PFIC) stock that is regularly traded, as defined in...

  4. 76 FR 35084 - Mutual to Stock Conversion Application

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-15

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Mutual to Stock Conversion Application... invite comments on the following information collection. Title of Proposal: Mutual to Stock Conversion... and soundness of the proposed stock conversion. The purpose of the information collection is to...

  5. In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wei-Qiang; Graedel, T E

    2015-05-19

    In-use stock of a product is the amount of the product in active use. In-use product stocks provide various functions or services on which we rely in our daily work and lives, and the concept of in-use product stock for industrial ecologists is similar to the concept of net manufactured capital stock for economists. This study estimates historical physical in-use stocks of 91 products and 9 product groups and uses monetary data on net capital stocks of 56 products to either approximate or compare with in-use stocks of the corresponding products in the United States. Findings include the following: (i) The development of new products and the buildup of their in-use stocks result in the increase in variety of in-use product stocks and of manufactured capital; (ii) substitution among products providing similar or identical functions reflects the improvement in quality of in-use product stocks and of manufactured capital; and (iii) the historical evolution of stocks of the 156 products or product groups in absolute, per capita, or per-household terms shows that stocks of most products have reached or are approaching an upper limit. Because the buildup, renewal, renovation, maintenance, and operation of in-use product stocks drive the anthropogenic cycles of materials that are used to produce products and that originate from natural capital, the determination of in-use product stocks together with modeling of anthropogenic material cycles provides an analytic perspective on the material linkage between manufactured capital and natural capital.

  6. In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Wei-Qiang; Graedel, T. E.

    2015-01-01

    In-use stock of a product is the amount of the product in active use. In-use product stocks provide various functions or services on which we rely in our daily work and lives, and the concept of in-use product stock for industrial ecologists is similar to the concept of net manufactured capital stock for economists. This study estimates historical physical in-use stocks of 91 products and 9 product groups and uses monetary data on net capital stocks of 56 products to either approximate or compare with in-use stocks of the corresponding products in the United States. Findings include the following: (i) The development of new products and the buildup of their in-use stocks result in the increase in variety of in-use product stocks and of manufactured capital; (ii) substitution among products providing similar or identical functions reflects the improvement in quality of in-use product stocks and of manufactured capital; and (iii) the historical evolution of stocks of the 156 products or product groups in absolute, per capita, or per-household terms shows that stocks of most products have reached or are approaching an upper limit. Because the buildup, renewal, renovation, maintenance, and operation of in-use product stocks drive the anthropogenic cycles of materials that are used to produce products and that originate from natural capital, the determination of in-use product stocks together with modeling of anthropogenic material cycles provides an analytic perspective on the material linkage between manufactured capital and natural capital. PMID:25733904

  7. Influence of stocking rate and steroidal implants on growth rate of steers grazing toxic tall fescue and subsequent physiological responses.

    PubMed

    Aiken, G E; Looper, M L; Tabler, S F; Brauer, D K; Strickland, J R; Schrick, F N

    2006-06-01

    An 84-d grazing experiment was conducted in 2 growing seasons to evaluate interactions of stocking rate and steroidal implants with BW gain and symptoms of toxicosis in yearling steers grazing endemic endophyte-infected (E+) tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.). A 4 x 2 factoral design was used to evaluate 4 stocking rates (3.0, 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0 steers/ ha) with or without steroidal implants (200 mg of progesterone + 20 mg of estradiol benzoate). Treatment combinations were randomly assigned to eight 1-ha pastures of E+ Kentucky-31 tall fescue (i.e., treatments were not replicated). Treatment effects were analyzed for ADG, total BW gain per hectare, forage availability, and hair coat ratings. At the conclusion of grazing in the second year (22 June), steers were placed on a bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] pasture, and rectal temperatures and serum prolactin concentrations were monitored for 10 d to assess carryover effects of stocking rate and steroidal implants on recovery from toxicosis-related heat stress. Forage availability differed (P < 0.001) between years, but there were no year x treatment interactions (P > 0.10). There was an implant x stocking rate interaction (P < 0.05) on ADG. Differences between the slopes in the regression equations indicated that ADG responded to implantation when stocking rates were low, but the response diminished as stocking rate increased. Stocking rate did not influence (P = 0.89) postgraze rectal temperature, but the regression intercept for implanted steers was 0.4 degrees C greater (P < 0.05) than for nonimplanted steers, and the difference was consistent across the entire 10-d fescue-free grazing period. Concentrations of prolactin increased during the 10-d fescue-free grazing period, but trends differed due to an implantation x stocking rate interaction (P < 0.05). Results indicate that implantation with progesterone + estradiol benzoate increases ADG with lower stocking rates, but the effect diminishes

  8. 76 FR 20459 - Mutual to Stock Conversion Application

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Mutual to Stock Conversion Application... collection. Title of Proposal: Mutual to Stock Conversion Application. OMB Number: 1550-0014. Form Numbers... furnished in the application in order to determine the safety and soundness of the proposed stock conversion...

  9. Is hardwood nursery stock available?

    Treesearch

    Herschel G. Abbott; Frank E. Cunningham

    1957-01-01

    The amount of hardwood planting stock used in forest tree plantations in the United States is very small indeed. The great bulk of planting stock used is softwood. Wallihan (4) points out that there are several good reasons for this. First of all is the greater demand for softwood forest products. Another is the fact, often demonstrated in the past, that softwoods are...

  10. 26 CFR 1.306-3 - Section 306 stock defined.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... stock, if a distribution of money by the distributing corporation in lieu of such stock would have been... distribution of money by the distributing corporation in lieu of such stock would have been a dividend, the... distribution would have been a dividend if money had been distributed in lieu of the rights. When stock is...

  11. 26 CFR 1.306-3 - Section 306 stock defined.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... stock, if a distribution of money by the distributing corporation in lieu of such stock would have been... distribution of money by the distributing corporation in lieu of such stock would have been a dividend, the... distribution would have been a dividend if money had been distributed in lieu of the rights. When stock is...

  12. Migratory urge and gll Na+,K+-ATPase activity of hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon smolts from the Dennys and Penobscot River stocks, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spencer, Randall C.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Zydlewski, Gayle B.

    2010-01-01

    Hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts produced from captive-reared Dennys River and sea-run Penobscot River broodstock are released into their source rivers in Maine. The adult return rate of Dennys smolts is comparatively low, and disparity in smolt quality between stocks resulting from genetic or broodstock rearing effects is plausible. Smolt behavior and physiology were assessed during sequential 14-d trials conducted in seminatural annular tanks with circular flow. “Migratory urge” (downstream movement) was monitored remotely using passive integrated transponder tags, and gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity was measured at the beginning and end of the trials to provide an index of smolt development. The migratory urge of both stocks was low in early April, increased 20-fold through late May, and declined by the end of June. The frequency and seasonal distribution of downstream movement were independent of stock. In March and April, initial gill Na+,K+-ATPase activities of Penobscot River smolts were lower than those of Dennys River smolts. For these trials, however, Penobscot River smolts increased enzyme activity after exposure to the tank, whereas Dennys River smolts did not, resulting in similar activities between stocks at the end of all trials. There was no clear relationship between migratory urge and gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity. Gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity of both stocks increased in advance of migratory urge and then declined while migratory urge was increasing. Maximum movement was observed from 2 h after sunset through 1 h after sunrise but varied seasonally. Dennys River smolts were slightly more nocturnal than Penobscot River smolts. These data suggest that Dennys and Penobscot River stocks are not markedly different in either physiological or behavioral expression of smolting.

  13. On the Feed-back Mechanism of Chinese Stock Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Shu Quan; Ito, Takao; Zhang, Jianbo

    Feed-back models in the stock markets research imply an adjustment process toward investors' expectation for current information and past experiences. Error-correction and cointegration are often used to evaluate the long-run relation. The Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis, which had ignored the effect of the accumulation of information, cannot explain some anomalies such as bubbles and partial predictability in the stock markets. In order to investigate the feed-back mechanism and to determine an effective model, we use daily data of the stock index of two Chinese stock markets with the expectational model, which is one kind of geometric lag models. Tests and estimations of error-correction show that long-run equilibrium seems to be seldom achieved in Chinese stock markets. Our result clearly shows the common coefficient of expectations and fourth-order autoregressive disturbance exist in the two Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, we find the same coefficient of expectations has an autoregressive effect on disturbances in the two Chinese stock markets. Therefore the presence of such feed-back is also supported in Chinese stock markets.

  14. A study of correlations in the stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Chandradew; Banerjee, Kinjal

    2015-08-01

    We study the various sectors of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for a period of 8 years from April 2006 to March 2014. Using the data of daily returns of a period of eight years we make a direct model free analysis of the pattern of the sectorial indices movement and the correlations among them. Our analysis shows significant auto correlation among the individual sectors and also strong cross-correlation among sectors. We also find that auto correlations in some of the sectors persist in time. This is a very significant result and has not been reported so far in Indian context. These findings will be very useful in model building for prediction of price movement of equities, derivatives and portfolio management. We show that the Random Walk Hypothesis is not applicable in modeling the Indian market and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis based portfolio optimization might be required. We also find that almost all sectors are highly correlated during large fluctuation periods and have only moderate correlation during normal periods.

  15. 47 CFR 32.4530 - Treasury stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Treasury stock. 32.4530 Section 32.4530 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES UNIFORM SYSTEM OF ACCOUNTS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES Instructions for Balance Sheet Accounts § 32.4530 Treasury stock...

  16. 47 CFR 32.4510 - Capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Capital stock. 32.4510 Section 32.4510 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES UNIFORM SYSTEM OF ACCOUNTS FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES Instructions for Balance Sheet Accounts § 32.4510 Capital stock. (a...

  17. 12 CFR 925.21 - Issuance and form of stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Issuance and form of stock. 925.21 Section 925... ASSOCIATES MEMBERS OF THE BANKS Stock Requirements § 925.21 Issuance and form of stock. (a) A Bank shall... stock shall be issued in installments with the appropriate number of shares issued after each payment is...

  18. Enhanced index tracking modeling in portfolio optimization with mixed-integer programming z approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Ismail, Hamizun bin

    2014-09-01

    Enhanced index tracking is a popular form of portfolio management in stock market investment. Enhanced index tracking aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate excess return over the return achieved by the stock market index without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using mixed-integer programming model which adopts regression approach in order to generate higher portfolio mean return than stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of 24 component stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2012. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio of mixed-integer programming model is able to generate higher mean return than FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index return with only selecting 30% out of the total stock market index components.

  19. Boosting Learning Algorithm for Stock Price Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chengzhang; Bai, Xiaoming

    2018-03-01

    To tackle complexity and uncertainty of stock market behavior, more studies have introduced machine learning algorithms to forecast stock price. ANN (artificial neural network) is one of the most successful and promising applications. We propose a boosting-ANN model in this paper to predict the stock close price. On the basis of boosting theory, multiple weak predicting machines, i.e. ANNs, are assembled to build a stronger predictor, i.e. boosting-ANN model. New error criteria of the weak studying machine and rules of weights updating are adopted in this study. We select technical factors from financial markets as forecasting input variables. Final results demonstrate the boosting-ANN model works better than other ones for stock price forecasting.

  20. 17 CFR 240.15g-2 - Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (CONTINUED) GENERAL RULES AND REGULATIONS, SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934...

  1. Combinatorial Algorithms for Portfolio Optimization Problems - Case of Risk Moderate Investor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juarna, A.

    2017-03-01

    Portfolio optimization problem is a problem of finding optimal combination of n stocks from N ≥ n available stocks that gives maximal aggregate return and minimal aggregate risk. In this paper given N = 43 from the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) group of the 45 most-traded stocks, known as the LQ45, with p = 24 data of monthly returns for each stock, spanned over interval 2013-2014. This problem actually is a combinatorial one where its algorithm is constructed based on two considerations: risk moderate type of investor and maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks. The main outputs resulted from implementation of the algorithms is a multiple curve of three portfolio’s attributes, e.g. the size, the ratio of return to risk, and the percentage of negative correlation coefficient for every two chosen stocks, as function of maximum allowed correlation coefficient between each two stocks. The output curve shows that the portfolio contains three stocks with ratio of return to risk at 14.57 if the maximum allowed correlation coefficient between every two eligible stocks is negative and contains 19 stocks with maximum allowed correlation coefficient 0.17 to get maximum ratio of return to risk at 25.48.

  2. Modeling stock prices in a portfolio using multidimensional geometric brownian motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maruddani, Di Asih I.; Trimono

    2018-05-01

    Modeling and forecasting stock prices of public corporates are important studies in financial analysis, due to their stock price characteristics. Stocks investments give a wide variety of risks. Taking a portfolio of several stocks is one way to minimize risk. Stochastic process of single stock price movements model can be formulated in Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model. But for a portfolio that consist more than one corporate stock, we need an expansion of GBM Model. In this paper, we use multidimensional Geometric Brownian Motion model. This paper aims to model and forecast two stock prices in a portfolio. These are PT. Matahari Department Store Tbk and PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk on period January 4, 2016 until April 21, 2017. The goodness of stock price forecast value is based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). As the results, we conclude that forecast two stock prices in a portfolio using multidimensional GBM give less MAPE than using GBM for single stock price respectively. We conclude that multidimensional GBM is more appropriate for modeling stock prices, because the price of each stock affects each other.

  3. Meiotic abnormalities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    1993-12-31

    Chapter 19, describes meiotic abnormalities. These include nondisjunction of autosomes and sex chromosomes, genetic and environmental causes of nondisjunction, misdivision of the centromere, chromosomally abnormal human sperm, male infertility, parental age, and origin of diploid gametes. 57 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  4. 26 CFR 1.552-3 - Stock ownership requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... more than 50 percent in value of the outstanding stock of the foreign corporation be owned, directly or... with respect to stock ownership are present at any time during the taxable year. (c) In determining whether the statutory conditions with respect to stock ownership are present at any time during the...

  5. 26 CFR 1.552-3 - Stock ownership requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... more than 50 percent in value of the outstanding stock of the foreign corporation be owned, directly or... with respect to stock ownership are present at any time during the taxable year. (c) In determining whether the statutory conditions with respect to stock ownership are present at any time during the...

  6. 26 CFR 1.552-3 - Stock ownership requirement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... more than 50 percent in value of the outstanding stock of the foreign corporation be owned, directly or... with respect to stock ownership are present at any time during the taxable year. (c) In determining whether the statutory conditions with respect to stock ownership are present at any time during the...

  7. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yun-Xian; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Yang, Ai-Jun; Tang, Nian-Sheng

    2017-05-01

    In this article we investigate the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. Bayesian approach, Heston model and statistical-physical method are considered. Specifically, Heston model and an effective potential are employed to address the dynamic changes of stock price. Bayesian approach has been utilized to estimate the Heston model's unknown parameters. Statistical physical method is used to investigate the occurrence of stock market crash by calculating the mean time-limited crash rate. The real financial data from the Shanghai Composite Index is analyzed with the proposed methods. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price is used to describe the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. The monotonous and nonmonotonous behaviors are observed in the behavior of the mean time-limited crash rate versus volatility of stock for various cross correlation coefficient between volatility and price. Also a minimum occurrence of stock market crash matching an optimal volatility is discovered.

  8. Hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Debashish; Safa Sadiq, Ali; Mirjalili, Seyedali; Noraziah, A.

    2017-09-01

    Prediction of stock price is one of the most challenging tasks due to nonlinear nature of the stock data. Though numerous attempts have been made to predict the stock price by applying various techniques, yet the predicted price is not always accurate and even the error rate is high to some extent. Consequently, this paper endeavours to determine an efficient stock prediction strategy by implementing a combinatorial method of Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Clustering and Non Linear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Technique. The study uses stock data from prominent stock market i.e. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and emerging stock market i.e. Malaysian Stock Market (Bursa Malaysia), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). It applies K-means clustering algorithm to determine the most promising cluster, then MGWO is used to determine the classification rate and finally the stock price is predicted by applying NARX neural network algorithm. The prediction performance gained through experimentation is compared and assessed to guide the investors in making investment decision. The result through this technique is indeed promising as it has shown almost precise prediction and improved error rate. We have applied the hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price. We intend to work with the effect of various factors in stock price movement and selection of parameters. We will further investigate the influence of company news either positive or negative in stock price movement. We would be also interested to predict the Stock indices.

  9. [Measurement of airborne asbestos fibers on railroad rolling stock].

    PubMed

    Camilucci, L; Catasta, P F; Chiappino, G; Governa, M; Munafò, E; Verduchi, P; Paba, G

    2000-01-01

    In February 1995 the Italian Railways Health Department set up a special study group in order to assess the effectiveness of the measures adopted against hazards due to the presence of asbestos in rolling stock currently in use on the rail network. The group set up specific procedures for sampling and analysis, on the basis of the criteria fixed for civil buildings in Ministerial Decree of 6/9/94, which was subsequently applied to rolling stock by Ministerial Decree of 26/10/95. In accordance with these procedures the study group carried out environmental studies via test runs programmed by the Railways Technical Departments, on trains made up of different types of vehicles. Insulated, completely or partially deinsulated and originally non-insulated vehicles were studied. Samples were analysed via scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with elementary dispersion X spectroscopy (EDXS) carried out by highly qualified public laboratories (ISPESL--National Institute for Prevention and Work Safety, ARPA--Regional Environmental Protection Agency, CRA--Veneto Region, University Departments). Altogether, from the start of the programme up to September 1998, 1464 samples in 170 test runs on 619 rolling stock vehicles were examined. These involved 83 locomotives, 83 electric rail-cars and 453 carriages. The results showed that in over 99% of the samples the fibre concentrations were below 2 fibres/litre, which is the value fixed by law for buildings and rail vehicles in order to qualify for effective decontamination status. Values exceeding 2 fibres/litre were found in only 4 vehicles, which were withdrawn or blocked for further checks. As a precaution, 18 vehicles where concentrations over 1 but less than 2 fibres/litre were found, were also blocked and their return to service has been postponed for further checks and analyses until the results show concentrations below 1 fibre/litre. Environmental analyses carried out up to the present indicate an overall situation comparable

  10. Antiherding in Financial Decision Increases Valuation of Return on Investment: An Event-Related Potential Study

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Cuicui; Jin, Jia; Vieito, João Paulo

    2017-01-01

    Using event-related potentials, this study investigated how financial herding or antiherding affected the valuation of subsequent outcomes. For each trial, subjects decided whether to buy the stock according to its net money flow information which could be used to reflect the strength of buying power or selling power of the stock. The return on investment (ROI) as feedback included the increase or decrease percentage after subjects' responses. Results showed that, compared with herding, antiherding induced larger discrepancies of FRN and P300 amplitude between positive ROI and negative ROI, indicating that individuals under antiherding condition had stronger motivation and paid more attention in the evaluation process of ROI. Moreover, only for positive ROI, the amplitudes of FRN and P300 were modulated by two kinds of behaviors. We suggested that individuals making antiherd decisions were more confident with their own ability and choices, which reduced the positive outcome prediction error and gave more mental resources to evaluate positive outcome. However, negative outcomes evoked no different motivational meaning and negative emotion for individuals between herding and antiherding. The study may provide new insights into neurocognitive processes of herding and antiherding in financial market. PMID:28634488

  11. Antiherding in Financial Decision Increases Valuation of Return on Investment: An Event-Related Potential Study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Cuicui; Jin, Jia; Vieito, João Paulo; Ma, Qingguo

    2017-01-01

    Using event-related potentials, this study investigated how financial herding or antiherding affected the valuation of subsequent outcomes. For each trial, subjects decided whether to buy the stock according to its net money flow information which could be used to reflect the strength of buying power or selling power of the stock. The return on investment (ROI) as feedback included the increase or decrease percentage after subjects' responses. Results showed that, compared with herding, antiherding induced larger discrepancies of FRN and P300 amplitude between positive ROI and negative ROI, indicating that individuals under antiherding condition had stronger motivation and paid more attention in the evaluation process of ROI. Moreover, only for positive ROI, the amplitudes of FRN and P300 were modulated by two kinds of behaviors. We suggested that individuals making antiherd decisions were more confident with their own ability and choices, which reduced the positive outcome prediction error and gave more mental resources to evaluate positive outcome. However, negative outcomes evoked no different motivational meaning and negative emotion for individuals between herding and antiherding. The study may provide new insights into neurocognitive processes of herding and antiherding in financial market.

  12. An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.

    PubMed

    Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.

  13. 12 CFR 931.1 - Classes of capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Classes of capital stock. 931.1 Section 931.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL STOCK § 931.1 Classes of capital stock. The authorized capital...

  14. Chapter 29. Production and use of planting stock

    Treesearch

    Nancy L. Shaw

    2004-01-01

    Vegetation can be rapidly established on disturbed sites by planting stock alone or in combination with direct seedings. Types of planting stock commonly used range from bareroot or containerized seedlings to pads of native vegetation. Inclusion of planting stock in rehabilitation or restoration projects requires careful scheduling, selection of adapted plant species,...

  15. 12 CFR 931.1 - Classes of capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Classes of capital stock. 931.1 Section 931.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL STOCK § 931.1 Classes of capital stock. The authorized capital...

  16. Equity prices as a simple harmonic oscillator with noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ataullah, Ali; Tippett, Mark

    2007-08-01

    The centred return on the London Stock Exchange's FTSE All Share Index is modelled as a simple harmonic oscillator with noise over the period from 1 January, 1994 until 30 June 2006. Our empirical results are compatible with the hypothesis that there is a period in the FTSE All Share Index of between two and two and one half years. This means the centred return will on average continue to increase for about a year after reaching the minimum in its oscillatory cycle; alternatively, it will continue on average to decline for about a year after reaching a maximum. Our analysis also shows that there is potential to exploit the harmonic nature of the returns process to earn abnormal profits. Extending our analysis to the low energy states of a quantum harmonic oscillator is also suggested.

  17. The price momentum of stock in distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Haijun; Wang, Longfei

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a new momentum of stock in distribution is proposed and applied in real investment. Firstly, assuming that a stock behaves as a multi-particle system, its share-exchange distribution and cost distribution are introduced. Secondly, an estimation of the share-exchange distribution is given with daily transaction data by 3 σ rule from the normal distribution. Meanwhile, an iterative method is given to estimate the cost distribution. Based on the cost distribution, a new momentum is proposed for stock system. Thirdly, an empirical test is given to compare the new momentum with others by contrarian strategy. The result shows that the new one outperforms others in many places. Furthermore, entropy of stock is introduced according to its cost distribution.

  18. Twitter sentiment around the Earnings Announcement events

    PubMed Central

    Grčar, Miha

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the relationship between social media, Twitter in particular, and stock market. We provide an in-depth analysis of the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, over a period of three years. We focus on Earnings Announcements and show that there is a considerable difference with respect to when the announcements are made: before the market opens or after the market closes. The two different timings of the Earnings Announcements were already investigated in the financial literature, but not yet in the social media. We analyze the differences in terms of the Twitter volumes, cumulative abnormal returns, trade returns, and earnings surprises. We report mixed results. On the one hand, we show that the Twitter sentiment (the collective opinion of the users) on the day of the announcement very well reflects the stock moves on the same day. We demonstrate this by applying the event study methodology, where the polarity of the Earnings Announcements is computed from the Twitter sentiment. Cumulative abnormal returns are high (2–4%) and statistically significant. On the other hand, we find only weak predictive power of the Twitter sentiment one day in advance. It turns out that it is important how to account for the announcements made after the market closes. These after-hours announcements draw high Twitter activity immediately, but volume and price changes in trading are observed only on the next day. On the day before the announcements, the Twitter volume is low, and the sentiment has very weak predictive power. A useful lesson learned is the importance of the proper alignment between the announcements, trading and Twitter data. PMID:28235103

  19. Twitter sentiment around the Earnings Announcement events.

    PubMed

    Gabrovšek, Peter; Aleksovski, Darko; Mozetič, Igor; Grčar, Miha

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the relationship between social media, Twitter in particular, and stock market. We provide an in-depth analysis of the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, over a period of three years. We focus on Earnings Announcements and show that there is a considerable difference with respect to when the announcements are made: before the market opens or after the market closes. The two different timings of the Earnings Announcements were already investigated in the financial literature, but not yet in the social media. We analyze the differences in terms of the Twitter volumes, cumulative abnormal returns, trade returns, and earnings surprises. We report mixed results. On the one hand, we show that the Twitter sentiment (the collective opinion of the users) on the day of the announcement very well reflects the stock moves on the same day. We demonstrate this by applying the event study methodology, where the polarity of the Earnings Announcements is computed from the Twitter sentiment. Cumulative abnormal returns are high (2-4%) and statistically significant. On the other hand, we find only weak predictive power of the Twitter sentiment one day in advance. It turns out that it is important how to account for the announcements made after the market closes. These after-hours announcements draw high Twitter activity immediately, but volume and price changes in trading are observed only on the next day. On the day before the announcements, the Twitter volume is low, and the sentiment has very weak predictive power. A useful lesson learned is the importance of the proper alignment between the announcements, trading and Twitter data.

  20. Fire recurrence effects on aboveground plant and soil carbon stocks in Mediterranean shrublands with Aleppo pine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, J.; den Ouden, J.; Mohren, G. M. J.; Retana, J.; Serrasolses, I.

    2009-04-01

    greatest impact on aboveground plant carbon stocks. Aboveground plants in control plots amounted to 8652 g m-2C, of which 93 % was stored in trees, while carbon storage in the most frequently burned sites was only 509 g m-2C. Shrub carbon varied barely between fire frequencies, corroborating the high resilience of resprouting shrub species to fire recurrence. The most striking result was the immense decrease in Aleppo pine carbon stock which varied between 7770 g m-2in control plots and 25.6 g m-2in 3-fires plots. Differences between control and burned plots are principally explained by the age of the plots. The decrease in Aleppo pine carbon stock within burned plots was not associated with a growth reduction, but was due to a decrease in stem density. The results indeed indicate that the recruitment of Aleppo pine on more frequently burned plots is obstructed due to cumulative effects of short fire return-intervals (

  1. Abnormal branching and regression of the notochord and its relationship to foregut abnormalities.

    PubMed

    Vleesch Dubois, V N; Quan Qi, B; Beasley, S W; Williams, A

    2002-04-01

    An abnormally positioned notochord has been reported in embryos that develop foregut abnormalities, vertebral defects and other abnormalities of the VATER association. This study examines the patterns of regression of the abnormal notochord in the rat model of the VATER association and investigates the relationship between developmental abnormalities of the notochord and those of the vertebra and foregut. Timed-pregnant Sprague-Dawley rats were given daily intraperitoneal injections of 1.75 mg/kg adriamycin on gestational days 6 - 9 inclusive. Rats were sacrificed between days 14 and 20 and their embryos harvested, histologically sectioned and stained and examined serially. The location and appearance of the degenerating notochord and its relationship to regional structural defects were analysed. All 26 embryos exposed to adriamycin developed foregut abnormalities and had an abnormal notochord. The notochord disappeared by a process of apoptotic degeneration that lagged behind that of the normal embryo: the notochord persisted in the abnormal embryo beyond day 17, whereas in the normal rat it had already disappeared. Similarly, formation of the nucleus pulposus was delayed. Vertebral abnormalities occurred when the notochord was ventrally-positioned. The notochord disappears during day 16 in the normal embryo whereas abnormal branches of the notochord persist until day 19 in the adriamycin-treated embryo. Degeneration of the notochord is dominated by apoptosis. An excessively ventrally-placed notochord is closely associated with abnormalities of the vertebral column, especially hemivertebrae.

  2. Comparison of advanced genetic loblolly pine planting stock

    Treesearch

    R.J. Rousseau; S.D. Roberts; B.L. Herrin

    2012-01-01

    Forest landowners have several options when it comes to selecting planting stock for loblolly pine plantations. The majority of plantations established over the past two decades have been planted with 2nd-Generation open-pollinated (2nd-Gen) seedling stock. Today, landowners can increase their yields using more sophisticated planting stock such as Mass Control...

  3. 47 CFR 32.4510 - Capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Capital stock. 32.4510 Section 32.4510 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES UNIFORM SYSTEM OF ACCOUNTS...) This account shall include the par value, stated amount, or in the case of no-par stock, the amount...

  4. 47 CFR 32.4510 - Capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Capital stock. 32.4510 Section 32.4510 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES UNIFORM SYSTEM OF ACCOUNTS...) This account shall include the par value, stated amount, or in the case of no-par stock, the amount...

  5. 47 CFR 32.4510 - Capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Capital stock. 32.4510 Section 32.4510 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES UNIFORM SYSTEM OF ACCOUNTS...) This account shall include the par value, stated amount, or in the case of no-par stock, the amount...

  6. 47 CFR 32.4510 - Capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Capital stock. 32.4510 Section 32.4510 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES UNIFORM SYSTEM OF ACCOUNTS...) This account shall include the par value, stated amount, or in the case of no-par stock, the amount...

  7. Root Pruning of Mahogany Nursery Stock

    Treesearch

    R. W. Nobles; C. B. Briscoe

    1966-01-01

    Root pruning had no effect on growth or survival of either young or held-over mahogany nursery stock. Potted mahogany seedlings may be held in the nursery an extra year or more without reducing-either growth or survival following outplanting. Growth may be slightly better for the older stock.

  8. Production and assessment of red alder planting stock.

    Treesearch

    M.A. Radwan; Y. Tanaka; A. Dobkowskl; W. Fangen

    1992-01-01

    A series of experiments was conducted over 4 years to test and develop methods to produce acceptable red alder planting stock and to assess quality and outplanting performance of resulting stock. Results indicated that red alder planting stock can be produced as containerized seedlings (plugs) or as bare-root nontransplant and transplant trees. In general, bare-root...

  9. 12 CFR 931.6 - Transfer of capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Transfer of capital stock. 931.6 Section 931.6 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL STOCK § 931.6 Transfer of capital stock. A Bank in its capital plan...

  10. 12 CFR 931.2 - Issuance of capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Issuance of capital stock. 931.2 Section 931.2 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL STOCK § 931.2 Issuance of capital stock. (a) In general. A Bank may...

  11. Stocking equations for regeneration in mixed oak stands

    Treesearch

    Songlin Fei; Kim C. Steiner; James C. Finley

    2007-01-01

    Regeneration stocking equations for mixed-oak stands were developed based on data collected from nearly 14,000 plots in the central Appalachians. Maximum stand density was identified by plotting aggregate height against number of seedlings per plot, and was used as the reference level of the average maximum stand density (100 percent stocking or A-level stocking)....

  12. 12 CFR 931.2 - Issuance of capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Issuance of capital stock. 931.2 Section 931.2 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL STOCK § 931.2 Issuance of capital stock. (a) In general. A Bank may...

  13. 12 CFR 931.6 - Transfer of capital stock.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Transfer of capital stock. 931.6 Section 931.6 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL STOCK § 931.6 Transfer of capital stock. A Bank in its capital plan...

  14. Stocking of Offsite Waters for Hungry Horse Dam Mitigation; Creston National Fish Hatchery, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Maskill, Mark

    2003-03-01

    Mitigation Objective 1: Produce Native Westslope Cutthroat Trout at Creston NFH--Task: Acquire eggs and rear up to 100,000 Westslope Cutthroat trout annually for offsite mitigation stocking. Accomplishments: A total of 150,000 westslope cutthroat eggs (M012 strain) were acquired from the State of Montana Washoe Park State Fish Hatchery in July 2001 for this objective. Another 120,000 westslope cutthroat eggs were taken from feral fish at Rogers Lake in May of 2001 by the Creston Hatchery crew. The fish were reared using approved fish culture techniques as defined in the U.S. Department of the Interior Fish Hatchery Management guidelines. Post releasemore » survival and angler success is monitored annually by Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) and the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribe (CSKT). Stocking numbers and locations may vary yearly based on results of biological monitoring. Mitigation Objective 2: Produce Rainbow Trout at Creston NFH--Task: Acquire and rear up to 100,000 Rainbow trout annually for offsite mitigation in closed basin waters. Accomplishments: A total of 50,500 rainbow trout eggs (Arlee strain) were acquired from the State of Montana Arlee State Fish Hatchery in December 2001 for this objective. The fish were reared using approved fish culture techniques as defined in the U.S. Department of the Interior Fish Hatchery Management guidelines. Arlee rainbow trout are being used for this objective because the stocking locations are terminal basin reservoirs and habitat conditions and returns to creel are unsuitable for native cutthroat. Post release survival and angler success is monitored annually by the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribe (CSKT). Stocking numbers and locations may vary yearly based on results of biological monitoring.« less

  15. Relative contribution of stocked walleyes in Tennessee reservoirs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bettoli, P.W.

    2003-01-01

    Since the mid-1950s, fisheries biologists with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency have stocked walleyes Stizostedion vitreum in several tributary reservoirs of the Cumberland and Tennessee rivers to augment declining native stocks; however, the efficacy of these management actions has never been formally evaluated. The contribution of stocked walleyes in four Tennessee reservoirs was evaluated during 1999 and 2000 by marking fry and fingerlings through oxytetracycline (OTC) immersion. Stocking densities were 13-48 fingerlings/ha, and marking efficacy was high for fish marked as fry (mean = 98%; SE = 1.7%) and fingerlings (mean = 99%; SE = 0.6%). Nearly all (94-100%; N = 509) of the age-1 and age-2 walleyes collected in the four reservoirs were OTC-marked. Based on these findings, fingerling walleyes must be stocked annually to sustain the walleye populations in these tributary impoundments.

  16. 78 FR 66681 - Draft 2013 Marine Mammal Stock Assessment Reports

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-06

    ... may be publicly accessible. Do not submit Confidential Business Information or otherwise sensitive or... completed in 1995. The MMPA requires NMFS and FWS to review the SARs at least annually for strategic stocks... non-strategic stocks. The term ``strategic stock'' means a marine mammal stock: (A) For which the...

  17. Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Lei; Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Ouyang, Fang-Yan

    2016-01-01

    A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective. PMID:26900948

  18. Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale.

    PubMed

    Tan, Lei; Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Ouyang, Fang-Yan

    2016-01-01

    A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.

  19. Return-to-Work Program for Injured Workers: Factors of Successful Return to Employment.

    PubMed

    Awang, Halimah; Shahabudin, Sharifah Muhairah; Mansor, Norma

    2016-11-01

    This study examined the factors of successful return to employment among participants in the return to work program (RTW) following work-related injury. Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization database containing 9850 injured workers who underwent RTW in 2010 to 2013. About 65% had successfully returned to employment. Significant factors of successful return include gender, employer interest, motivation, age, intervention duration, and type of injury. Male and motivated employees were more likely to return to employment compared with female and unmotivated employees, respectively. Participants from interested employers were 23.22 times more likely to return to work than those from uninterested employers, whereas participants whose intervention period exceeded 5 months were 41% less likely to return to work compared with those whose intervention period was within 3 months. Appropriate strategy and enhanced collaboration between the stakeholders would improve the proportion of successful return to employment. © 2016 APJPH.

  20. A Tale of Two Stock Markets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Piercey, Victor I.; Greene-Hunley, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    This article describes two different projects using the stock market as a context for learning. For both projects, students "bought" shares in individual companies, tracked stock prices for a period of time, and then "sold" their shares at a gain or loss. The projects are adaptable for students in late elementary school through…