Sample records for abrupt warming events

  1. North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Praetorius, Summer K; Mix, Alan C.; Davies, Maureen H.; Wolhowe, Matthew D; Addison, Jason A.; Prahl, Frederick G

    2015-01-01

    Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition1, 2, 3, 4. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4–5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals12, 13, and enhanced 15N/14N ratio of organic matter13, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in 18O/16O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming.

  2. Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

  3. Abrupt climate warming in East Antarctica during the early Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cremer, Holger; Heiri, Oliver; Wagner, Bernd; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

    2007-08-01

    We report a centennial-scale warming event between 8600 and 8400 cal BP from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, that is documented by the geochemical record in a lacustrine sediment sequence. The organic carbon content, the C/S ratio, and the sedimentation rate in this core have distinctly elevated values around 8500 y ago reflecting relatively warm and ice-free conditions that led to well-ventilated conditions in the lake and considerable sedimentation of both autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter on the lake bottom. This abrupt warming event occurred concurrently with reported warm climatic conditions in the Southern Ocean while the climate in central East Antarctic remained cold. The comparison of the spatial and temporal variability of warm climatic periods documented in various terrestrial, marine, and glacial archives from East Antarctica elucidates the uniqueness of the centennial-scale warming event in the Amery Oasis. We also discuss a possible correlation of the Amery warming event with the abrupt climatic deterioration around 8200 cal BP on the Northern Hemisphere.

  4. Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.

    PubMed

    Petrenko, Vasilii V; Smith, Andrew M; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P

    2017-08-23

    Methane (CH 4 ) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ( 14 CH 4 ) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

  5. Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Smith, Andrew M.; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    2017-08-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane (14CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today’s natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

  6. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

    2011-07-01

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  7. Repetitive mammalian dwarfing during ancient greenhouse warming events

    PubMed Central

    D’Ambrosia, Abigail R.; Clyde, William C.; Fricke, Henry C.; Gingerich, Philip D.; Abels, Hemmo A.

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt perturbations of the global carbon cycle during the early Eocene are associated with rapid global warming events, which are analogous in many ways to present greenhouse warming. Mammal dwarfing has been observed, along with other changes in community structure, during the largest of these ancient global warming events, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM; ~56 million years ago (Ma)]. We show that mammalian dwarfing accompanied the subsequent, smaller-magnitude warming event known as Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 [ETM2 (~53 Ma)]. Statistically significant decrease in body size during ETM2 is observed in two of four taxonomic groups analyzed in this study and is most clearly observed in early equids (horses). During ETM2, the best-sampled lineage of equids decreased in size by ~14%, as opposed to ~30% during the PETM. Thus, dwarfing appears to be a common evolutionary response of some mammals during past global warming events, and the extent of dwarfing seems related to the magnitude of the event. PMID:28345031

  8. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    PubMed

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-03

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  9. Paradox of the peak-PCIM (Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maxima; ~57.8Ma) and Abrupt Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, D. T.; Hoenisch, B.; Zachos, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maxima (PCIM; ~57.8Ma) represents a major transition in global δ13C during the late Paleocene, when the long-term positive trend in δ13C reversed from positive to negative. The peak-PCIM (~57.7Ma) has been tightly resolved in new high-resolution, astronomically-tuned benthic isotope records from IODP Sites 1209 (Pacific) and 1262 (Atlantic), which show the final phase of δ13C enrichment as abrupt (~1‰ in <100kyrs) and coinciding with a 0.5‰ decline in benthic δ18O indicative of 2-3ºC of bottom water warming, effectively marking the onset of a gradual 8Myr long warming trend [Littler et al., EPSL 2014]. Typically, during the Paleogene on orbital time scales, warming is observed during intervals of δ13C depletion, consistent with release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere. This event, which has the appearance of a bifurcation in the long-term coupling of climate system and the carbon cycle, poses an interesting paradox as any rapid carbon release to the atmosphere should, in theory, create a negative excursion because all of the major carbon sources are isotopically light, whether volcanic outgassing, weathering/oxidation of organic carbon, or methane release [Dunkley-Jones et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010]. If global, there are several testable mechanisms that may explain the shift including increase in burial flux of light carbon, a reduction in heavy carbon burial flux, or a large-scale circulation change perhaps associated with the transition of a major oceanic gateway. Using trace metal (B/Ca and Mg/Ca) and stable isotope (δ11B, δ18O, and δ13C) geochemistry, here we establish the nature of the peak-PCIM at sites from 3 different ocean basins (IODP Sites 690, 1209, and 1262) and begin to test several of the possible mechanisms for change. Mg/Ca in mixed-layer planktonic foraminifera show 2-3°C of sea surface warming coinciding with, and abrupt as, the benthic carbon isotope enrichment at all sites. Bottom

  10. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  11. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

  12. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  13. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-27

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

  14. Eocene Hyperthermal Event Offers Insight Into Greenhouse Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Gabriel J.; Bralower, Timothy J.; Delaney, Margaret L.; Dickens, Gerald R.; Kelly, Daniel C.; Koch, Paul L.; Kump, Lee R.; Meng, Jin; Sloan, Lisa C.; Thomas, Ellen; Wing, Scott L.; Zachos, James C.

    2006-04-01

    What happens to the Earth's climate, environment, and biota when thousands of gigatons of greenhouse gases are rapidly added to the atmosphere? Modern anthropogenic forcing of atmospheric chemistry promises to provide an experiment in such change that has not been matched since the early Paleogene, more than 50 million years ago (Ma),when catastrophic release of carbon to the atmosphere drove abrupt, transient, hyperthermal events. Research on the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)-the best documented of these events, which occurred about 55 Ma-has advanced significantly since its discovery 15 years ago. During the PETM, carbon addition to the oceans and atmosphere was of a magnitude similar to that which is anticipated through the 21st century. This event initiated global warming, biotic extinction and migration, and fundamental changes in the carbon and hydrological cycles that transformed the early Paleogene world.

  15. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  16. Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Lonnie G; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Brecher, Henry; Davis, Mary; León, Blanca; Les, Don; Lin, Ping-Nan; Mashiotta, Tracy; Mountain, Keith

    2006-07-11

    Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.

  17. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

    PubMed

    2015-04-30

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

  18. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  19. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

  20. Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Rasch, Philip J.

    2017-04-01

    In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as documented in previous studies. The analysis indicates a recent and seemingly accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. The shorter duration and more rapid transition of tropospheric warming events may connect to the documented increase in midlatitude weather extremes, more so than the route of stratospheric warming type. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated remarkable strengthening of the cold Siberian high manifest in 2016.

  1. High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years.

    PubMed

    Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Andersen, Katrine K; Bigler, Matthias; Clausen, Henrik B; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Fischer, Hubertus; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Hansson, Margareta; Johnsen, Sigfús J; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Popp, Trevor; Rasmussen, Sune O; Röthlisberger, Regine; Ruth, Urs; Stauffer, Bernhard; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Arny E; Svensson, Anders; White, James W C

    2008-08-01

    The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition, reflecting the wetting of Asian deserts. A northern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the trigger of these abrupt shifts of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes of 2 to 4 kelvin in Greenland moisture source temperature from one year to the next.

  2. Accelerated Increase in the Arctic Tropospheric Warming Events Surpassing StratosphericWarming Events During Winter

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

    2017-04-22

    In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

  3. Ice core measurements of 14CH4 show no evidence of methane release to atmosphere from methane hydrates during a large warming event 11,600 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrenko, V. V.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Smith, A.; Riedel, K.; Brook, E.; Schaefer, H.; Baggenstos, D.; Harth, C. M.; Hua, Q.; Buizert, C.; Schilt, A.; Fain, X.; Mitchell, L.; Bauska, T. K.; Orsi, A. J.; Weiss, R. F.

    2016-12-01

    Marine methane hydrate destabilization has been proposed as a potentially large source of methane to the atmosphere in response to both past and future warming. We present new measurements of 14C of paleoatmospheric methane (CH4) over the Younger Dryas - Preboreal (YD - PB) abrupt warming event (≈11,600 years ago) from ancient ice outcropping at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. The YD - PB abrupt warming was centered in the North Atlantic, occurred partway through the global warming of last deglaciation and was associated with a ≈ 50% increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations. 14C can unambiguously identify CH4 emissions from "old carbon" sources, such as CH4 hydrates. All samples from before, during and after the abrupt warming and associated CH4 increase yielded 14CH4 values that are consistent with 14C of atmospheric CO2 at that time, indicating a purely contemporaneous methane source. Our results show that neither the abrupt regional warming nor the gradual global warming that preceded it resulted in detectable CH4 release to the atmosphere from CH4 hydrates during the YD - PB transition. Our results are thus consistent with the hypothesis that the vast majority of CH4 that is released from dissociating hydrates or other old-carbon seafloor CH4 sources is oxidized prior to reaching the atmosphere.

  4. Climate Stability: Pathway to understand abrupt glacial climate shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Knorr, G.; Barker, S.; Lohmann, G.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial climate is marked by abrupt, millennial-scale climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles that have been linked to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The most pronounced stadial coolings, Heinrich Stadials (HSs), are associated with massive iceberg discharges to the North Atlantic. This motivates scientists to consider that the North Atlantic freshwater perturbations is a common trigger of the associated abrupt transitions between weak and strong AMOC states. However, recent studies suggest that the Heinrich ice-surging events are triggered by ocean subsurface warming associated with an AMOC slow-down. Furthermore, the duration of ice-rafting events does not systematically coincide with the beginning and end of the pronounced cold conditions during HSs. In this context, we show that both, changes in atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet configuration can provide important control on the stability of the AMOC, using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Our simulations reveal that gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet height and atmospheric CO2 can act as a trigger of abrupt glacial/deglacial climate changes. The simulated global climate responses—including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rain belts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw—are generally consistent with empirical evidence. We further find that under a delicate configuration of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet height the AMOC can be characterized by a self-oscillation (resonance) feature (Hopf Bifucation) with a 1000-year cycle that is comparable with observed small DO events during the MIS 3. This provides an alternative explanation for millennial-scale DO variability during glacial periods.

  5. Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

    In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

  6. Abrupt change of Antarctic moisture origin at the end of Termination II

    PubMed Central

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Stenni, B.; Blunier, T.; Cattani, O.; Chappellaz, J.; Cheng, H.; Dreyfus, G.; Edwards, R. L.; Falourd, S.; Govin, A.; Kawamura, K.; Johnsen, S. J.; Jouzel, J.; Landais, A.; Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Lourantou, A.; Marshall, G.; Minster, B.; Mudelsee, M.; Pol, K.; Röthlisberger, R.; Selmo, E.; Waelbroeck, C.

    2010-01-01

    The deuterium excess of polar ice cores documents past changes in evaporation conditions and moisture origin. New data obtained from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C East Antarctic ice core provide new insights on the sequence of events involved in Termination II, the transition between the penultimate glacial and interglacial periods. This termination is marked by a north–south seesaw behavior, with first a slow methane concentration rise associated with a strong Antarctic temperature warming and a slow deuterium excess rise. This first step is followed by an abrupt north Atlantic warming, an abrupt resumption of the East Asian summer monsoon, a sharp methane rise, and a CO2 overshoot, which coincide within dating uncertainties with the end of Antarctic optimum. Here, we show that this second phase is marked by a very sharp Dome C centennial deuterium excess rise, revealing abrupt reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the southern Indian Ocean sector. PMID:20566887

  7. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  8. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  9. Abrupt climatic events recorded by the Ili loess during the last glaciation in Central Asia: Evidence from grain-size and minerals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Yougui; Zeng, Mengxiu; Chen, Xiuling; Li, Yue; Chang, Hong; An, Zhisheng; Guo, Xiaohua

    2018-04-01

    The loess record of Central Asia provides an important archive of regional climate and environmental changes. In contrast to the widely investigated loess deposits in the Chinese Loess Plateau, Central Asian loess-paleosol sequences remain poorly understood. Here, we present an aeolian loess section in the southern Ili Basin. Based on granularity and mineralogical analyses, we reconstruct climatic changes during the last glaciation. The results indicated that most of the abrupt climatic events (such as Dansgaard-Oeschger events and Heinrich events) were imprinted in this loess section, although their amplitudes and ages showed some differences. Compared with the millennial oscillations recoded in loess and stalagmites in East Asia, the arid Central Asia responded more sensitively to the warming events than to the cooling events. The shifting trajectory of westerlies across Central Asia played an important role in dust deposition during the stadials. The North Atlantic climatic signals may have been transmitted from Central Asia to the East Asian monsoon regions via the westerlies.

  10. Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

    PubMed

    Foreman, Brady Z; Heller, Paul L; Clementz, Mark T

    2012-11-01

    Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface.

  11. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

    PubMed

    Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

    2015-09-02

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  12. Tropical North Atlantic subsurface warming events as a fingerprint for AMOC variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, Andrew O.; Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping

    2015-11-01

    The role of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as the driver of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) variability that characterized Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) has long been hypothesized. Although there is ample proxy evidence suggesting that DO events were robust features of glacial climate, there is little data supporting a link with AMOC. Recently, modeling studies and subsurface temperature reconstructions have suggested that subsurface warming across the tropical North Atlantic can be used to fingerprint a weakened AMOC during the deglacial because a reduction in the strength of the western boundary current allows warm salinity maximum water of the subtropical gyre to enter the deep tropics. To determine if AMOC variability played a role during the DO cycles of MIS 3, we present new, high-resolution Mg/Ca and δ18O records spanning 24-52 kyr from the near-surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber and the lower thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globorotalia truncatulinoides in Southern Caribbean core VM12-107 (11.33°N, 66.63°W, 1079 m depth). Our subsurface Mg/Ca record reveals abrupt increases in Mg/Ca ratios (the largest equal to a 4°C warming) during the interstadial-stadial transition of most DO events during this period. This change is consistent with reconstructions of subsurface warming events associated with cold events across the deglacial using the same core. Additionally, our data support the conclusion reached by a recently published study from the Florida Straits that AMOC did not undergo significant reductions during Heinrich events 2 and 3. This record presents some of the first high-resolution marine sediment derived evidence for variable AMOC during MIS 3.

  13. Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

    PubMed Central

    Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier; Drijfhout, Sybren; Mary, Yannick; Bennabi, Amine

    2017-01-01

    Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. PMID:28198383

  14. Abrupt Atmospheric Methane Increases Associated With Hudson Strait Heinrich Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, R.; Brook, E.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Blunier, T.; Maselli, O. J.; McConnell, J. R.; Romanini, D.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The drivers of abrupt climate change during the Last Glacial Period are not well understood. While Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles are thought to be linked to variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), it is not clear how or if Heinrich Events—extensive influxes of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean that impacted global climate and biogeochemistry—are related. An enduring problem is the difficultly in dating iceberg rafted debris deposits that typically lack foraminifera. Here we present an ultra-high resolution record of methane from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core at unprecedented, continuous temporal resolution from 67.2-9.8 ka BP, which we propose constrains the timing of Heinrich events. Our methane record essentially mirrors Greenland ice core stable isotope variability across D-O events, except during Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4 and 5. Partway through these stadials only, methane increases abruptly and rapidly, as at the onset of a D-O event but Greenland temperature exhibits no equivalent response. Speleothem records exhibit signatures of drought in the Northern extra-tropics and intensified monsoonal activity over South America at these times. We use a simple heuristic model to propose that cold air temperatures and extensive sea ice in the North, resulting from Heinrich events, caused extreme reorganization of tropical hydroclimate. This involved curtailment of the seasonal northerly migration of tropical rain belts, leading to intensification of rainfall over Southern Hemisphere tropical wetlands, thus allowing production of excess methane relative to a 'normal' Greenland stadial. We note that this mechanism can operate if AMOC is already in a slowed state when a Heinrich event occurs, as paleo-evidence suggests it was. Heinrich events and associated sea ice cover would therefore act to prolong the duration of this AMOC state. Our findings place the big four Heinrich events of Hudson Strait origin

  15. Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, R. M.; Cohen, L.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Rinke, A.; Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Record low Arctic sea ice extents were observed during the last three winter seasons (March). During each of these winters, near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed, in situ, over sea ice in the central Arctic. Recent media reports and scientific studies suggest that such winter warming events were unprecedented for the Arctic. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. The earliest record we find of a winter warming event was in March 1896, where a temperature of -3.7˚C was observed at 84˚N during the Fram expedition. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Despite a limited observational network, temperatures exceeding -5°C were measured in situ during more than 30% of winters from 1954 to 2010, by either North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Correlation coefficients between the atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, and these in-situ temperature records are shown to be on the order of 0.90. This suggests that ERA-Interim is a suitable tool for studying Arctic winter warming events. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). We find a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.

  16. Voluminous Icelandic Basaltic Eruptions Appear To Cause Abrupt Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. L.

    2011-12-01

    Beginning on June 21, 1783, Laki volcano in southern Iceland erupted 14.7 km3 basalt, ejecting 24 Mt SO_{2} into the stratosphere where it was blown eastward and northward and 98 Mt into the troposphere where the jet stream transported it southeastward to Europe. The "dry fog" observed in Europe with an estimated mean concentration of 60 ppbv SO2, raised daytime temperatures as much as 3.3^{o}C, causing the warmest July in England from 1659 when measurements began until 1983. SO2, tropospheric O_{3}, NO2, and fine ash absorb ultraviolet energy from the sun that causes the bonds between and within their atoms to oscillate at 47 times higher frequency than the bonds in CO_{2} absorbing infrared radiation. Temperature is proportional to the kinetic energy of these oscillations, i.e. the frequency squared. Thus these gases are raised to much higher temperatures than greenhouse gases. The Stefan-Boltzmann law says that radiation from these molecules is a constant times temperature raised to the fourth power. As a result, SO2 and ash radiate far more energy back to earth than CO_{2}, causing warming. Another way to look at the energy involved shows that 15 ppbv SO2 in the 0.3-0.42 μm wavelength band absorbs as much solar energy per unit volume as 388,000 ppbv CO_{2} absorbs infrared energy in the 12.7-17.5 μm band. Basaltic volcanoes such as Laki emit 10 to 100 times more SO2 than more evolved magmas and are less explosive, leaving most of the SO_{2} in the troposphere. All 14 Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) sudden warmings between 46 and 11 ka are contemporaneous with the highest levels of sulfate in the GISP2 drill hole near Summit Greenland. These DO events typically warmed the northern hemisphere out of the ice age within decades, but as volcanism waned, ocean temperatures cooled the world back into an ice age within centuries. The world finally exited the ice age when voluminous volcanism continued from 11.6 to 9.6 ka. Basaltic table mountains or tuyas in Iceland document

  17. The nature of abrupt climate change during the last glacial period from detailed isotopic records from the NGRIP ice core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, T. J.; Svensson, A.; Steffensen, J. P.; Johnsen, S. J.; White, J. W. C.

    2009-04-01

    Isotopic and chemical impurity records from Greenland ice cores with sub-annual resolution across three fast climate transitions of the last deglacial termination reveal complex patterns of environmental change for the onset of Greenland Interstadial 1 (GI-1 or Bølling), the onset of Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1 or Younger Dryas), and the onset of the Holocene. In the NGRIP ice core each of these transitions is initiated by a 1-3 year mode shift in deuterium excess, which is a proxy for the Greenland precipitation moisture source. These mode shifts in deuterium excess are decoupled in time from the isotopic (deuterium and oxygen-18) transitions from which they are derived. In general the abrupt isotopic transitions follow the corresponding deuterium excess shifts and span decades rather than years. Similar data from GISP2 confirms the clear deuterium excess mode shifts for transitions from cold states to warm states; however the abrupt deuterium excess transition at the onset of GS-1 is not expressed in a similar way at GISP2. Ironically, it appears that this cooling at the beginning of the Younger Dryas, for which we have theories of the triggering event, is less clearly recorded than warming events, the triggering of which is still poorly understood. Along with other available paleo-data, these results indicate that the sum of an abrupt climate change is composed of multiple responses from different parts of the climate system. These responses can be separated by as little as a single year to a few decades and the collection of these responses result in a variety of abrupt transitions giving each a unique anatomy. Here we expand this type of analysis with new isotope, deuterium excess, and accumulation rate time series from NGRIP across the abrupt transitions associated with several interstadial events of the Last Glacial period (Dansgaard-Oeschger events). Indeed the temporal phasing of deuterium excess and the isotopic content of the ice can vary from one event

  18. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-21

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

  19. Lead-Lag relationships? Asynchrounous and Abrupt Shifts in Atmospheric Circulation, Temperature, and Vegetation during the 8.2 ka Event in the Eastern Mediterranean at Tenaghi Philippon, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niedermeyer, E. M.; Mulch, A.; Pross, J.

    2017-12-01

    The "8.2 ka event" has been an abrupt and prominent climate perturbation during the Holocene, and is characterized by an episode of generally colder and dryer conditions in the Northern Hemisphere realm. However, evidence to what extent this event has had an impact on climate in the Mediterranean region is ambiguous, in particular with respect to rainfall, temperature and vegetation change on land. Here we present a new, high-resolution record (ø 15 years during the event) of paleotemperatures from the Tenaghi Philippon peat deposit, Eastern Macedonia, Greece, using the MBT'/CBT index based on brGDGTs (branched Glycerol-Dialkyl-Glycerol-Tetraethers). Our data show fairly stable temperatures before the event, which is initiated at 8.1 ka by an abrupt and continuous cooling during the first 35 years of the event. After a short, 10-year episode of minimum temperatures, the event is ended by a similarly abrupt and continuous warming within 38 years. Comparison of our record with a previous study of the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of higher-plant waxes (δDwax) on the same core1 shows that changes in temperature occurred simultaneously with shifts in atmospherics moisture sources (Mediterranean vs Atlantic). Interestingly, further comparison of our data with a previous palynological study of the same core2 reveals that changes in vegetation associated with the 8.2 ka event precede shifts in hydrology and temperature by 100 years. This suggests either pronounced changes in seasonality of temperature and rainfall after the onset of the 8.2 ka event, i.e. at the peak of the event, or that changes in local atmospheric circulation (moisture sources) and temperature where not the initial trigger of changes in vegetation. References: Pross, J., Kotthoff, U., Müller, U.C., Peyron, O., Dormoy, I., Schmiedl, G., Kalaitzidis, S. and Smith, A.M. (2009): Massive perturbation in terrestrial ecosystems of the Eastern Mediterranean region associated with the 8.2 kyr B

  20. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2017-04-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  1. An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different

  2. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    PubMed

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical

  3. Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gatzen, Christoph

    2013-04-01

    A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

  4. Continuous methane record of abrupt climate change 10-68 ka: sighting Heinrich events in the ice core record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, Rachael; Brook, Edward; Chiang, John; Blunier, Thomas; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia; McConnell, Joseph; Romanini, Daniele; Severinghaus, Jeffrey; Sowers, Todd; Stowasser, Christopher

    2014-05-01

    The Last Glacial period was punctuated by millennial scale abrupt climate changes - Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events. Controls on the magnitude and frequency of these climate perturbations, and how they may be inter-related, remain unclear. Specific problems include the difficulty of dating Heinrich sediment layers and local bias of key paleoclimate archives. We present a highly detailed and precise record of ice core methane (CH4), a globally integrated signal, which resolves climatic features in unprecedented resolution. Abrupt CH4 increases are resolved in Heinrich Stadials (HS) 1, 2, 4 and 5 where, in contrast to all D-O cycles, there are no concurrent abrupt changes in Greenland temperature. Using modern-day tropical rainfall variability as an analog, we propose that strong cooling in the North Atlantic severely restricted the northerly range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), leading to an enhanced wet season over Southern Hemisphere tropical land areas, and consequently driving production of excess CH4 in tropical wetlands. Our findings place four Heinrich events firmly within ice core chronologies and suggest maximum durations of 778 to 1606 yr. CH4 anomalies are only associated with Heinrich events of Hudson Strait provenance, indicating that the tropical impacts of Heinrich events were not uniform.

  5. Decadal-scale progression of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events - Are warmings at the end of Heinrich-Stadials different from others?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erhardt, T.; Capron, E.; Rasmussen, S.; Schuepbach, S.; Bigler, M.; Fischer, H.

    2017-12-01

    During the last glacial period proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere document a succession of rapid millennial-scale warming events, called Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) events. Marine proxy records from the Atlantic also reveal, that some of the warming events where preceded by large ice rafting events, referred to as Heinrich events. Different mechanisms have been proposed, that can produce DO-like warming in model experiments, however the progression and plausible trigger of the events and their possible interplay with the Heinrich events is still unknown. Because of their fast nature, the progression is challenging to reconstruct from paleoclimate data due to the temporal resolution achievable in many archives and cross-dating uncertainties between records. We use new high-resolution multi-proxy records of sea-salt and terrestrial aerosol concentrations over the period 10-60 ka from two Greenland deep ice cores in conjunction with local precipitation and temperature proxy records from one of the cores to investigate the progression of environmental changes at the onset of the individual warming events. The timing differences are then used to explore whether the DO warming events that terminate Heinrich-Stadials progressed differently in comparison to those after Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Our analysis indicates no difference in the progression of the warming terminating Heinrich-Stadials and Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Combining the evidence from all warming events in the period, our analysis shows a consistent lead of the changes in both local precipitation and terrestrial dust aerosol concentrations over the change in sea-salt aerosol concentrations and local temperature by approximately one decade. This implies that both the moisture transport to Greenland and the intensity of the Asian winter monsoon changed before the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic was reduced, rendering a collapse of the sea-ice cover as a trigger for the DO events unlikely.

  6. Major cause of unprecedented Arctic warming in January 2016: Critical role of an Atlantic windstorm

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Baek-Min; Hong, Ja-Young; Jun, Sang-Yoon; Zhang, Xiangdong; Kwon, Hataek; Kim, Seong-Joong; Kim, Joo-Hong; Kim, Sang-Woo; Kim, Hyun-Kyung

    2017-01-01

    In January 2016, the Arctic experienced an extremely anomalous warming event after an extraordinary increase in air temperature at the end of 2015. During this event, a strong intrusion of warm and moist air and an increase in downward longwave radiation, as well as a loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, were observed. Observational analyses revealed that the abrupt warming was triggered by the entry of a strong Atlantic windstorm into the Arctic in late December 2015, which brought enormous moist and warm air masses to the Arctic. Although the storm terminated at the eastern coast of Greenland in late December, it was followed by a prolonged blocking period in early 2016 that sustained the extreme Arctic warming. Numerical experiments indicate that the warming effect of sea ice loss and associated upward turbulent heat fluxes are relatively minor in this event. This result suggests the importance of the synoptically driven warm and moist air intrusion into the Arctic as a primary contributing factor of this extreme Arctic warming event. PMID:28051170

  7. Continental warming preceding the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum.

    PubMed

    Secord, Ross; Gingerich, Philip D; Lohmann, Kyger C; Macleod, Kenneth G

    2010-10-21

    Marine and continental records show an abrupt negative shift in carbon isotope values at ∼55.8 Myr ago. This carbon isotope excursion (CIE) is consistent with the release of a massive amount of isotopically light carbon into the atmosphere and was associated with a dramatic rise in global temperatures termed the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). Greenhouse gases released during the CIE, probably including methane, have often been considered the main cause of PETM warming. However, some evidence from the marine record suggests that warming directly preceded the CIE, raising the possibility that the CIE and PETM may have been linked to earlier warming with different origins. Yet pre-CIE warming is still uncertain. Disentangling the sequence of events before and during the CIE and PETM is important for understanding the causes of, and Earth system responses to, abrupt climate change. Here we show that continental warming of about 5 °C preceded the CIE in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming. Our evidence, based on oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth (which reflect temperature-sensitive fractionation processes) and other proxies, reveals a marked temperature increase directly below the CIE, and again in the CIE. Pre-CIE warming is also supported by a negative amplification of δ(13)C values in soil carbonates below the CIE. Our results suggest that at least two sources of warming-the earlier of which is unlikely to have been methane-contributed to the PETM.

  8. Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattyn, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher

  9. Heat and pregnancy-related emergencies: Risk of placental abruption during hot weather.

    PubMed

    He, Siyi; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

    2018-02-01

    Outdoor heat increases the risk of preterm birth and stillbirth, but the association with placental abruption has not been studied. Placental abruption is a medical emergency associated with major morbidity and mortality in pregnancy. We determined the relationship between ambient temperature and risk of placental abruption in warm seasons. We performed a case-crossover analysis of 17,172 women whose pregnancies were complicated by placental abruption in Quebec, Canada from May to October 1989-2012. The main exposure measure was the maximum temperature reached during the week before abruption. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of temperature with placental abruption, adjusted for humidity and public holidays. We assessed whether associations were stronger preterm or at term, or varied with maternal age, parity, comorbidity and socioeconomic status. Compared with 15°C, a maximum weekly temperature of 30°C was associated with 1.07 times the odds of abruption (95% CI 0.99-1.16). When the timing of abruption was examined, the associations were significantly stronger at term (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.24) than preterm (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.83-1.10). Relationships were more prominent at term for women who were younger than 35years old, nulliparous or socioeconomically disadvantaged, but did not vary with comorbidity. Associations were stronger within 1 and 5days of abruption. Temperature was not associated with preterm abruption regardless of maternal characteristics. Elevated temperatures in warm seasons may increase the risk of abruption in women whose pregnancies are near or at term. Pregnant women may be more sensitive to heat and should consider preventive measures such as air conditioning and hydration during hot weather. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.

    PubMed

    Zachos, J C; Lohmann, K C; Walker, J C; Wise, S W

    1993-03-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  11. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  12. Subsurface North Atlantic warming as a trigger of rapid cooling events: evidences from the Early Pleistocene (MIS 31-19)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández-Almeida, I.; Sierro, F.-J.; Cacho, I.; Flores, J.-A.

    2014-10-01

    Subsurface water column dynamics in the subpolar North Atlantic were reconstructed in order to improve the understanding of the cause of abrupt IRD events during cold periods of the Early Pleistocene. We used Mg / Ca-based temperatures of deep-dwelling (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral) planktonic foraminifera and paired Mg / Ca-δ18O measurements to estimate the subsurface temperatures and δ18O of seawater at Site U1314. Carbon isotopes on benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the same site provide information about the ventilation and water column nutrient gradient. Mg / Ca-based temperatures and δ18O of seawater suggest increased temperatures and salinities during ice-rafting, likely due to enhanced northward subsurface transport of subtropical waters during periods of AMOC reduction. Planktonic carbon isotopes support this suggestion, showing coincident increased subsurface ventilation during deposition of ice-rafted detritus (IRD). Warm waters accumulated at subsurface would result in basal warming and break-up of ice-shelves, leading to massive iceberg discharges in the North Atlantic. Release of heat and salt stored at subsurface would help to restart the AMOC. This mechanism is in agreement with modelling and proxy studies that observe a subsurface warming in the North Atlantic in response to AMOC slowdown during the MIS3.

  13. Subsurface warming in the subpolar North Atlantic during rapid climate events in the Early and Mid-Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Sierro, Francisco; Cacho, Isabel; Abel Flores, José

    2014-05-01

    A new high-resolution reconstruction of the temperature and salinity of the subsurface waters using paired Mg/Ca-δ18O measurements on the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistrorsa (sin.) was conducted on a deep-sea sediment core in the subpolar North Atlantic (Site U1314). This study aims to reconstruct millennial-scale subsurface hydrography variations during the Early and Mid-Pleistocene (MIS 31-19). These rapid climate events are characterized by abrupt shifts between warm/cold conditions, and ice-sheet oscillations, as evidenced by major ice rafting events recorded in the North Atlantic sediments (Hernández-Almeida et al., 2012), similar to those found during the Last Glacial period (Marcott et al, 2011). The Mg/Ca derived paleotemperature and salinity oscillations prior and during IRD discharges at Site U1314 are related to changes in intermediate circulation. The increases in Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and salinities during the IRD event are preceded by short episodes of cooling and freshening of subsurface waters. The response of the AMOC to this perturbation is an increased of warm and salty water coming from the south, transported to high latitudes in the North Atlantic beneath the thermocline. This process is accompanied by a southward shift in the convection cell from the Nordic Seas to the subpolar North Atlantic and better ventilation of the North Atlantic at mid-depths. Poleward transport of warm and salty subsurface subtropical waters causes intense basal melting and thinning of marine ice-shelves, that culminates in large-scale instability of the ice sheets, retreat of the grounding line and iceberg discharge. The mechanism proposed involves the coupling of the AMOC with ice-sheet dynamics, and would explain the presence of these fluctuations before the establishment of high-amplitude 100-kyr glacial cycles. Hernández-Almeida, I., Sierro, F.J., Cacho, I., Flores, J.A., 2012. Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North

  14. Subsurface North Atlantic warming as a trigger of rapid cooling events: evidence from the early Pleistocene (MIS 31-19)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández-Almeida, I.; Sierro, F.-J.; Cacho, I.; Flores, J.-A.

    2015-04-01

    Subsurface water column dynamics in the subpolar North Atlantic were reconstructed in order to improve the understanding of the cause of abrupt ice-rafted detritus (IRD) events during cold periods of the early Pleistocene. We used paired Mg / Ca and δ18O measurements of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral - sin.), deep-dwelling planktonic foraminifera, to estimate the subsurface temperatures and seawater δ18O from a sediment core from Gardar Drift, in the subpolar North Atlantic. Carbon isotopes of benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the same site provide information about the ventilation and water column nutrient gradient. Mg / Ca-based temperatures and seawater δ18O suggest increased subsurface temperatures and salinities during ice-rafting, likely due to northward subsurface transport of subtropical waters during periods of weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Planktonic carbon isotopes support this suggestion, showing coincident increased subsurface ventilation during deposition of IRD. Subsurface accumulation of warm waters would have resulted in basal warming and break-up of ice-shelves, leading to massive iceberg discharges in the North Atlantic. The release of heat stored at the subsurface to the atmosphere would have helped to restart the AMOC. This mechanism is in agreement with modelling and proxy studies that observe a subsurface warming in the North Atlantic in response to AMOC slowdown during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3.

  15. The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events

    PubMed Central

    Moore, G. W. K.

    2016-01-01

    In late December 2015, widespread media interest revolved around forecasts that the surface air temperature at the North Pole would rise above freezing. Although there has been significant interest in the enhanced warming that is occurring at high northern latitudes, a process known as arctic amplification, remarkably little is known about these midwinter warming events at the pole including their frequency, duration and magnitude as well as the environmental conditions responsible for their occurrence. Here we use buoy and radiosonde data along with operational weather forecasts and atmospheric reanalyses to show that such events are associated with surface cyclones near the pole as well as a highly perturbed polar vortex. They occur once or twice each decade with the earliest identified event taking place in 1959. In addition, the warmest midwinter temperatures at the North Pole have been increasing at a rate that is twice as large as that for mean midwinter temperatures at the pole. It is argued that this enhanced trend is consistent with the loss of winter sea ice from the Nordic Seas that moves the reservoir of warm air over this region northwards making it easier for weather systems to transport this heat polewards. PMID:27976745

  16. Synchronous centennial abrupt events in the ocean and atmosphere during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tianyu; Robinson, Laura F; Burke, Andrea; Southon, John; Spooner, Peter; Morris, Paul J; Ng, Hong Chin

    2015-09-25

    Antarctic ice-core data reveal that the atmosphere experienced abrupt centennial increases in CO2 concentration during the last deglaciation (~18 thousand to 11 thousand years ago). Establishing the role of ocean circulation in these changes requires high-resolution, accurately dated marine records. Here, we report radiocarbon data from uranium-thorium-dated deep-sea corals in the Equatorial Atlantic and Drake Passage over the past 25,000 years. Two major deglacial radiocarbon shifts occurred in phase with centennial atmospheric CO2 rises at 14.8 thousand and 11.7 thousand years ago. We interpret these radiocarbon-enriched signals to represent two short-lived (less than 500 years) "overshoot" events, with Atlantic meridional overturning stronger than that of the modern era. These results provide compelling evidence for a close coupling of ocean circulation and centennial climate events during the last deglaciation. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. Coupled greenhouse warming and deep-sea acidification in the middle Eocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohaty, Steven M.; Zachos, James C.; Florindo, Fabio; Delaney, Margaret L.

    2009-06-01

    The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is an enigmatic warming event that represents an abrupt reversal in long-term cooling through the Eocene. In order to further assess the timing and nature of this event, we have assembled stable isotope and calcium carbonate concentration records from multiple Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program sites for the time interval between ˜43 and 38 Ma. Revised stratigraphy at several sites and compilation of δ18O records place peak warming during the MECO event at 40.0 Ma (Chron C18n.2n). The identification of the δ18O excursion at sites in different geographic regions indicates that the climatic effects of this event were globally extensive. The total duration of the MECO event is estimated at ˜500 ka, with peak warming lasting <100 ka. Assuming minimal glaciation in the late middle Eocene, ˜4°-6°C total warming of both surface and deep waters is estimated during the MECO at the study sites. The interval of peak warming at ˜40.0 Ma also coincided with a worldwide decline in carbonate accumulation at sites below 3000 m depth, reflecting a temporary shoaling of the calcite compensation depth. The synchroneity of deep-water acidification and globally extensive warming makes a persuasive argument that the MECO event was linked to a transient increase in atmospheric pCO2. The results of this study confirm previous reports of significant climatic instability during the middle Eocene. Furthermore, the direct link between warming and changes in the carbonate chemistry of the deep ocean provides strong evidence that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations exerted a primary control on short-term climate variability during this critical period of Eocene climate evolution.

  18. Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2010-10-01

    Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more

  19. Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.

    Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

  20. Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

    DOE PAGES

    Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.; ...

    2016-08-23

    Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

  1. Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

    PubMed

    Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

    2017-09-01

    Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Abrupt termination of Marine Isotope Stage 16 (Termination VII) at 631.5 ka in Santa Barbara Basin, Californi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dean, Walter E.; Kennett, James P.; Behl, Richard J.; Nicholson, Craig; Sorlien, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    The Marine Isotope Stage 16–15 boundary (Termination VII) is the first deglacial warming step of the late Quaternary following the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), when 41 kyr climatic cycles shifted to strong 100 kyr cycles. The detailed structure of this important climatic event has remained unknown until now. Core MV0508-19JPC from Santa Barbara Basin, California, contains a decadal-scale climatic and geochemical sediment record of 4000 years duration that includes the early part of this deglacial episode. This record reveals that the climatic shift during the early deglacial occurred rapidly (<700 years), in a progression of three abrupt warming steps. The onset of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15 was remarkably abrupt with 4–5°C sea surface warming in ~50 years. The deglacial sequence contains the well-dated Lava Creek tephra (631.3 ± 4 ka) from Yellowstone Caldera used to date the onset of Termination VII at 631.5 ka. The late MIS 16 and early MIS 15 interval exhibits multiple decadal-scale negative excursions in δ13C of planktic foraminifera, likely the result of repeated discharges of methane from methane hydrates associated with both ocean warming and low sea level. A warm interstadial that interrupts late MIS 16 is marked by elevated concentrations of redox-sensitive elements indicating sulfidic, oxygen-deficient bottom and pore-waters, and elevated concentrations of total organic carbon and Cd, reflecting increased surface productivity. Unlike younger sediments on the California margin, these indicators of increased productivity and low dissolved oxygen do not consistently correspond with each other or with preserved laminations, possibly reflecting instability of a still evolving ocean-atmosphere system following the MPT.

  3. Sea Surface Warming and Increased Aridity at Mid-latitudes during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, D. T.; Zeebe, R. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Schrader, C.; Lourens, L. J.; Zachos, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Early Eocene hyperthermals, i.e. abrupt global warming events characterized by the release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere, can provide insight into the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system and hydrologic cycle to carbon emissions. Indeed, the largest Eocene hyperthermal, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), has provided one case study of extreme and abrupt global warming, with a mass of carbon release roughly equivalent to total modern fossil fuel reserves and a release rate 1/10 that of modern. Global sea surface temperatures (SST) increased by 5-8°C during the PETM and extensive evidence from marine and terrestrial records indicates significant shifts in the hydrologic cycle consistent with an increase in poleward moisture transport in response to surface warming. The second largest Eocene hyperthermal, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2) provides an additional calibration point for determining the sensitivity of climate and the hydrologic cycle to massive carbon release. Marine carbon isotope excursions (CIE) and warming at the ETM-2 were roughly half as large as at the PETM, but reliable evidence for shifts in temperature and the hydrologic cycle are sparse for the ETM-2. Here, we utilize coupled planktic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca to determine ΔSST and ΔSSS (changes in sea surface temperature and salinity) for ETM-2 at ODP Sites 1209 (28°N paleolatitude in the Pacific) and 1265 (42°S paleolatitude in the S. Atlantic), accounting for potential pH influence on the two proxies by using LOSCAR climate-carbon cycle simulated ΔpH. Our results indicate a warming of 2-4°C at both mid-latitude sites and an increase in SSS of 1-3ppt, consistent with simulations of early Paleogene hydroclimate that suggest an increase in low- to mid-latitude aridity due to an intensification of moisture transport to high-latitudes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the CIE and warming for ETM-2 scales with the CIE and warming for the PETM, suggesting that

  4. Ecosystem resilience to abrupt late Quaternary change in continental southern Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harding, Poppy; Mackay, Anson; Bezrukova, Elena; Shchetnikov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Quaternary climate variability is dominated by long term orbital forcing along with abrupt sub-Milankovitch events on the scales of millennia to centuries, driven by internal feedback mechanisms, volcanic forcing and fluctuating solar activity. Although these are well documented in the North Atlantic region, their expression is poorly understood in Siberia, particularly in relation to abrupt climatic events. Siberia has the world's highest level of continentality offering an opportunity to study changes remote from oceanic influences and improving understanding of interactions between the Siberian High and other atmospheric systems including the Aleutian Low, Arctic oscillation and Icelandic Low1 and ENSO2. Understanding of palaeoenvironmental change in Siberia is essential due to the region's high sensitivity to climatic change, with warming rates considerably higher than the global average over the past 50 years3, triggering significant environmental changes, including permafrost degradation, shifts in the forest-steppe biome, increases in forest fires and warming of seasonally ice-covered lakes. Additionally, the region provides essential palaeoenvironmental context for early hominins, for example at globally important sites such as Denisova cave4, and megafauna extinctions5. This presentation outlines ongoing work at Lake Baunt, SE Siberia including: key quaternary climate forcings, the site and its regional context, the key methods and preliminary results. These include a dated record back to ˜30ka BP (based on multiple 14C dates and Bayesian age modelling), multiproxy indicators of palaeoproductivity (e.g. biogenic silica and diatom analyses) and lake mixing regimes (inferred from diatom analyses). Together these highlight several key Quaternary fluctuations potentially correlated to events recorded in Greenland Ice Cores (GS2, GS2.1, GI1, GS1), and these are considered against key Quaternary records including those from nearby Lake Baikal and Hulu Cave in

  5. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    PubMed Central

    Springer, Kathleen B.; Manker, Craig R.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  6. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Springer, Kathleen; Manker, Craig; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  7. Atmospheric CO2 and abrupt climate change on submillennial timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Jinho; Brook, Edward

    2010-05-01

    How atmospheric CO2 varies and is controlled on various time scales and under various boundary conditions is important for understanding how the carbon cycle and climate change are linked. Ancient air preserved in ice cores provides important information on past variations in atmospheric CO2. In particular, concentration records for intervals of abrupt climate change may improve understanding of mechanisms that govern atmospheric CO2. We present new multi-decadal CO2 records that cover Greenland stadial 9 (between Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events 8 and 9) and the abrupt cooling event at 8.2 ka. The CO2 records come from Antarctic ice cores but are well synchronized with Greenland ice core records using new high-resolution CH4 records,precisely defining the timing of CO2 change with respect to abrupt climate events in Greenland. Previous work showed that during stadial 9 (40~38 ka), CO2 rose by about 15~20 ppm over around 2,000 years, and at the same time temperatures in Antarctica increased. Dust proxies indicate a decrease in dust flux over the same period. With more detailed data and better age controls we now find that approximately half of the CO2 increase during stadial 9 occurred abruptly, over the course of decades to a century at ~39.6 ka. The step increase of CO2 is synchronous with a similar step increase of Antarctic isotopic temperature and a small abrupt change in CH4, and lags after the onset of decrease in dust flux by ~400 years. New atmospheric CO2 records at the well-known ~8.2 ka cooling event were obtained from Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica. Our preliminary CO2 data span 900 years and include 19 data points within the 8.2 ka cooling event, which persisted for ~160 years (Thomas et al., Quarternary Sci. Rev., 2007). We find that CO2 increased by 2~4 ppm during that cooling event. Further analyses will improve the resolution and better constrain the CO2 variability during other times in the early Holocene to determine if the variations observed

  8. Abrupt and unexpected stressful life events are followed with increased disease activity in spondyloarthritis: a two years web-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Luo, Guanguan; Boelle, Pierre Yves; Turbelin, Clément; Costantino, Félicie; Kerneis, Solen; Nahal, Roula Said; Breban, Maxime; Hanslik, Thomas

    2018-06-05

    The contribution of environmental factors to spondyloarthritis (SpA) course remains poorly characterized. We previously reported a possible triggering of disease flares by stressful life events and vaccination. The objective of the present study was to specify the types of vaccine and life event that may influence disease activity. A prospective cohort of adult SpA was followed for two years. Patients logged on to a secured website every month to complete a standardized auto-questionnaire. They reported whether they had been exposed to stressful life events, vaccinations or other environmental factors. Patients were asked to rate the distress resulting from exposure to life events on a numerical rating scale (NRS: 0-10). Primary outcome variable was the variation of Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) measured on two consecutive connections. Months where an event occurred were compared to months without events. The cutoff value of 1 is defined as the minimal clinically important variation for the BASDAI. The 272 enrolled SpA patients returned 3,388 questionnaires. Months where an abrupt and unexpected traumatic event occurred were associated with a significant increase of BASDAI of 0.57 [95%CI: 0.29; 0.85] (p<0.001). The higher the rating of distress, the larger the impact on BASDAI, reaching a clinically meaningful increase of 0.99 [0.17; 1.82] for a VNS ≥9. The effect of stressful events on BASDAI persisted during a median of 3 months. No other environmental factor was significantly associated with BASDAI variations. Among stressful life events, abrupt and unexpected events were associated with transient worsening of disease activity in SpA, which reached a clinically meaningful increase for the highest rating of distress. Association between vaccines and disease flare was not confirmed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  9. An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915-1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, P.; Song, Y.; Yu, Y.; Liu, H.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model - Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905-1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50-70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice-albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid-high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.

  10. Abrupt Climatic Change during the Latest Maastrichtian: Establishing Robust Temporal Links with the Onset of Deccan Volcanism and K/Pg Mass Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnet, J.; Littler, K.; Kroon, D.; Leng, M. J.; Westerhold, T.; Roehl, U.; Zachos, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    A transient period of climate change, characterized by a global warming of 2.5-5°C followed by a cooling to pre-excursion conditions, occurred during the last 300 kyr of the Maastrichtian ( 66.34-66.02 Ma). This instability may have played a role in destabilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems, priming the system for abrupt extinction at the K-Pg boundary, likely triggered by a large bolide impact. This pre-K-Pg warming event has often been linked to the main phase of Deccan Trap volcanism, however large uncertainties associated with radio-isotopic dating methods of basalts, along with low sedimentation rates and hiatuses in many studied sedimentary sequences, have long hampered a definitive correlation. To complement recent advances in dating of the traps, we have generated the first complete and highest resolution (2.5-4 kyr) benthic stable δ13C and δ18O record for the final million years of the Maastrichtian using the epifaunal foraminifera species Nuttallides truempyi from ODP Site 1262, Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic, calibrated to an updated orbitally-tuned age model. We then compare our data to other previously published geochemical data from other sites in the high, middle, and low latitudes. Our data confirms that the onset of the warming event coincides with the onset of the main phase of Deccan volcanism, strongly suggesting a causal link. Furthermore, spectral analysis of our extended late Maastrichtian-Early Eocene record suggests that the onset of the warming event corresponds to a 405-kyr eccentricity minima, in contrast to many transient warming events (hyperthermals) of the Paleogene, suggesting a control by orbital forcing alone is unlikely. A peculiar feature of the event, compared to other hyperthermals, is a muted carbon cycle response during warming, which may be related to the comparatively heavier δ13C signature of volcanogenic CO2 (-7‰), compared to other sources of light carbon invoked to explain Paleogene hyperthermals. The warming

  11. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

    2017-01-03

    Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.

  12. Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Randel, William J.

    1993-01-01

    Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.

  13. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  14. Modeling geologically abrupt climate changes in the Miocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, B. J.; Seidov, D.

    2010-12-01

    The gradual cooling of the Cenozoic, including the Miocene epoch, was punctuated by many geologically abrupt warming and cooling episodes - strong deviations from the cooling trend with time span of ten to hundred thousands of years. Our working hypothesis is that some of those warming episodes at least partially might have been caused by dynamics of the emerging Antarctic Ice Sheet, which, in turn, might have caused strong changes of sea surface salinity in the Miocene Southern Ocean. Feasibility of this hypothesis is explored in a series of coupled ocean-atmosphere computer experiments. The results suggest that relatively small and geologically short-lived changes in freshwater balance in the Southern Ocean could have significantly contributed to at least two prominent warming episodes in the Miocene. Importantly, the experiments also suggest that the Southern Ocean was more sensitive to the salinity changes in the Miocene than today, which can attributed to the opening of the Central American Isthmus as a major difference between the Miocene and the present-day ocean-sea geometry.

  15. Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

    PubMed

    Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

    2010-05-28

    The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

  16. Tropical North Atlantic subsurface temperature anomalies: evidence for AMOC variability across Dansgaard-Oscheger events?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, A. O.; Schmidt, M. W.; Chang, P.

    2013-12-01

    A common mechanism often proposed to explain the abrupt climate events of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), known as Dansgaard-Oscheger (D-O) cycles, invokes variability in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Although proxy evidence shows that D-O cycles resulted in large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns around the planet, an understanding of how the AMOC varied across these events remains unclear. Coupled ocean-atmosphere models demonstrate that AMOC variability is linked to abrupt change in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) through both oceanic and atmospheric processes. A reduction in AMOC causes a subsurface oceanic warming in the TNA as the western boundary current slows, allowing the warm salinity maximum waters to enter the deep tropics. Recently, Schmidt et al. (2012) identified an abrupt subsurface warming at the onset of AMOC slow down during both Heinrich 1 and the Younger Dryas, suggesting this signal may be a robust feature of AMOC variability in the TNA. In order to determine if AMOC variability was the driver of D-O cycles during MIS 3, we present new, high-resolution Mg/Ca and δ18O records from the near-surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera G. ruber and the lower-thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera G. crassaformis from 22 - 52 ka BP in southern Caribbean core VM12-107 (11.33oN, 66.63oW, 1079m depth). Sedimentation rates in VM12-107 average 24cm/kyr, providing high temporal resolution able to resolve millennial-scale events. The G. ruber δ18O record shows abrupt oscillations up to 1‰ as well as Mg/Ca-based SST changes of 1.5 - 2oC that are synchronous with some D-O cycles recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Given our ability to resolve D-O cycles in the planktonic record, we find that Mg/Ca ratios from G. crassaformis were, on average, 0.13 × 0.04 mmol/mol higher during stadials. This equates to a temperature increase during stadials of up to 1.5oC. These results imply that AMOC

  17. Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric

    2011-01-01

    A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

  18. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-01-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005

  19. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    PubMed

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  20. Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; hide

    2017-01-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  1. The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, In-Sun; Frith, Stacey M.

    2011-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.

  2. Impacts of abrupt climate changes in the Levant from Last Glacial Dead Sea levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torfstein, Adi; Goldstein, Steven L.; Stein, Mordechai; Enzel, Yehouda

    2013-06-01

    A new, detailed lake level curve for Lake Lisan (the Last Glacial Dead Sea) reveals a high frequency of abrupt fluctuations during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) compared to the relatively high stand characterizing MIS2, and the significantly lower Holocene lake. The lake level fluctuations reflect the hydrological conditions in the large watershed of the lake, which in turn reflects the hydro-climatic conditions in the central Levant region. The new curve shows that the fluctuations coincide on millennial timescales with temperature variations recorded in Greenland. Four patterns of correlation are observed through the last ice age: (1) maximum lake elevations were reached during MIS2, the coldest interval; (2) abrupt lake level drops to the lowest elevations coincided with the occurrence of Heinrich (H) events; (3) the lake returned to higher-stand conditions along with warming in Greenland that followed H-events; (4) significant lake level fluctuations coincided with virtually every Greenland stadial-interstadial cycle. Over glacial-interglacial time-scales, Northern Hemisphere glacial cooling induces extreme wetness in the Levant, with high lake levels reaching ˜160 m below mean sea level (mbmsl), approximately 240 m above typical Holocene levels of ˜400 mbmsl. These orbital time-scale shifts are driven by expansions of the European ice sheet, which deflect westerly storm tracks southward to the Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in increased sea-air temperature gradients that invoke increased cyclogenesis, and enhanced moisture delivery to the Levant. The millennial-scale lake level drops associated with Greenland stadials are most extreme during Heinrich stadials and reflect abrupt cooling of the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere and sea-surface, which weaken the cyclogenic rain engine and cause extreme Levant droughts. During the recovery from the effect of Heinrich stadials, the regional climate configuration resumed typical glacial conditions, with enhanced

  3. Work More? The 8.2 kaBP Abrupt Climate Change Event and the Origins of Irrigation Agriculture and Surplus Agro-Production in Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, H.

    2003-12-01

    The West Asian archaeological record is of sufficient transparency and resolution to permit observation of the social responses to the major Holocene abrupt climate change events at 8.2, 5.2 and 4.2 kaBP. The 8.2kaBP abrupt climate change event in West Asia was a three hundred year aridification and cooling episode. During this period rain-fed agriculture, established for over a millennium in northern Mesopotamia, suddenly collapsed. Irrigation agriculture, pastoral nomadism, or migration were the only subsistence alternatives for populations previously supported by cereal dry-farming. Irrigation agriculture was not, however, possible along the northern alluvial plains of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, where incised riverbeds were several meters below plain level. Exploitable plain-level levees were only accessible in southern-most alluvial plain, at the head of the present-day Persian Gulf. The archaeological data from this region documents the first irrigation agriculture settlement of the plain during the 8.2 kaBP event. Irrigation agriculture provides about twice the yield of dry-farming in Mesopotamia, but at considerable labor costs relative to dry-farming. With irrigation agriculture surplus production was now available for deployment. But why work more? The 8.2 kaBP event provided the natural force for Mesopotamian irrigation agriculture and surplus production that were essential for the earliest class-formation and urban life.

  4. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  5. The resilience of postglacial hunter-gatherers to abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Blockley, Simon; Candy, Ian; Matthews, Ian; Langdon, Pete; Langdon, Cath; Palmer, Adrian; Lincoln, Paul; Abrook, Ashley; Taylor, Barry; Conneller, Chantal; Bayliss, Alex; MacLeod, Alison; Deeprose, Laura; Darvill, Chris; Kearney, Rebecca; Beavan, Nancy; Staff, Richard; Bamforth, Michael; Taylor, Maisie; Milner, Nicky

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the resilience of early societies to climate change is an essential part of exploring the environmental sensitivity of human populations. There is significant interest in the role of abrupt climate events as a driver of early Holocene human activity, but there are very few well-dated records directly compared with local climate archives. Here, we present evidence from the internationally important Mesolithic site of Star Carr showing occupation during the early Holocene, which is directly compared with a high-resolution palaeoclimate record from neighbouring lake beds. We show that-once established-there was intensive human activity at the site for several hundred years when the community was subject to multiple, severe, abrupt climate events that impacted air temperatures, the landscape and the ecosystem of the region. However, these results show that occupation and activity at the site persisted regardless of the environmental stresses experienced by this society. The Star Carr population displayed a high level of resilience to climate change, suggesting that postglacial populations were not necessarily held hostage to the flickering switch of climate change. Instead, we show that local, intrinsic changes in the wetland environment were more significant in determining human activity than the large-scale abrupt early Holocene climate events.

  6. Mechanism for the recent ocean warming events on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brickman, D.; Hebert, D.; Wang, Z.

    2018-03-01

    In 2012, 2014, and 2015 anomalous warm events were observed in the subsurface waters in the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. Monthly output from a high resolution numerical ocean model simulation of the North Atlantic ocean for the period 1990-2015 is used to investigate this phenomenon. It is found that the model shows skill in simulating the anomaly fields derived from various sources of data, and the observed warming trend over the last decade. From analysis of the model run it is found that the anomalies originate from the interaction between the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current at the tail of the Grand Banks (south of Newfoundland). This interaction results in the creation of anomalous warm/salty (or cold/fresh) eddies that travel east-to-west along the shelfbreak. These anomalies penetrate into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, onto the Scotian Shelf, and into the Gulf of Maine via deep channels along the shelfbreak. The observed warming trend can be attributed to an increase in the frequency of creation of warm anomalies during the last decade. Strong anomalous events are commonly observed in the data and model, and thus should be considered as part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.

  7. Diatoms as Proxies for Abrupt Events in the Hudson River Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skorski, W.; Abbott, D. H.; Recasens, C.; Breger, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    The Hudson River estuary has been subject to many abrupt events throughout its history including hurricanes, droughts and pluvials. Hurricanes in particular are rare, discrete events that if fingerprinted can be used to develop better age models for Hudson River sediments. Proxies use observed physical characteristics or biological assemblages (e.g. diatom and foraminiferal assemblages) as tools to reconstruct past conditions prior to the modern instrumental record. Using a sediment core taken from the Hudson River (CDO2-29A), in New York City, drought and pluvial layers were selected based on Cs-137 dating while hurricane layers were determined from occurrences of tropical to subtropical foraminifera. Contrary to previous studies (Weaver, 1970, Weiss et al, 1978), more than sixty different diatom species have been identified using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Cosmopolitan, hurricane and drought assemblages have begun to be identified after observing multiple layers (Table 1). Tropical foraminifera dominated by Globigerinoides ruber pink were also found in a hurricane layer that we infer was deposited during Hurricane Belle in 1976. More diatom abundance analyses and cataloged SEM pictures will provide further insight into these proxies. Table 1 Diatom Genera and Species Environment Clarification Cyclotella caspia Planktonic, marine-brackish Cosmopolitan Karayevia clevei Freshwater Cosmopolitan Melosira sp Planktonic, marine Cosmopolitan Thalassiosira sp Marine, brackish Cosmopolitan Staurosirella leptostauron Benthic, freshwater Cosmopolitan Actinoptychus senarius Planktonic or benthic, freshwater to brackish Hurricane and pluvial layers Amphora aff. sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Nitzschia sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Gomphonema sp Freshwater Hurricane layers only Surirella sp Marine-brackish Drought layer only Triceratium sp Marine Drought layer only Other Genera and species Environment Clarification

  8. Abrupt drying events in the Caribbean related to large Laurentide meltwater pulses during the glacial-to-Holocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieten, Rolf; Warken, Sophie; Winter, Amos; Scholz, Denis; Black, David; Zanchettin, Davide; Miller, Thomas E.

    2017-04-01

    At the end of the last deglaciation North Atlantic meltwater pulses from the retreating Laurentide ice sheet triggered a chain of oceanic and atmospheric responses including temporary slow-down of the thermohaline circulation and hemispheric-scale alterations of the atmospheric circulation. The 8.2 ka event (occurring about 8.2 ka BP) is the most pronounced meltwater pulse during the Holocene and serves as an analogue to understand how North Atlantic fresh water influxes can affect the ocean-atmosphere coupled system on a basin, hemispheric or global scale. This event left strong regional climate imprints, such as abrupt cooling reconstructed over the North Atlantic and Europe lasting 100 to 150 years and drying in the northern hemispheric tropics. However, there is a lack of high resolution proxies to learn about the event's temporal structure especially in the tropics. We present geochemical evidence from a stalagmite indicating sudden climate fluctuations towards drier conditions in the northeastern Caribbean possibly related to rapid cooling in the high northern latitudes and a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Stalagmite PR-PA-1 was collected in Palco cave, Puerto Rico, and it is a remarkable record of the 8.2 ka event because 15 MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dates produce a precise chronology of its Holocene period growing solely between 9.0 ka BP to 7.5 ka BP. Based on 240 trace element and stable isotope ratio measurement we reconstructed hydrological changes with sub-decadal resolution. Our proxy data show large and rapid climate variations before 8.0 ka. Pronounced peaks in the Mg/Ca and δ13C records indicate three major events of abrupt drying. These fluctuations towards drier conditions took place in less than 10 years and the climate remained drier than the natural range for 10 to 20 years, before it returned to pre-fluctuation conditions again. Our observations confirm previous studies suggesting that repeated meltwater pulses

  9. Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

    2017-07-01

    Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

  10. Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

  11. Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H; Brovkin, Victor; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

    2008-09-23

    In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change. Because tipping points in ecosystems and other complex systems are notoriously hard to predict in other ways, this is a promising perspective.

  12. Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Brovkin, Victor; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

    2008-01-01

    In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state. One explanation for such events of abrupt change is that they happened when the earth system reached a critical tipping point. However, this remains hard to prove for events in the remote past, and it is even more difficult to predict if and when we might reach a tipping point for abrupt climate change in the future. Here, we analyze eight ancient abrupt climate shifts and show that they were all preceded by a characteristic slowing down of the fluctuations starting well before the actual shift. Such slowing down, measured as increased autocorrelation, can be mathematically shown to be a hallmark of tipping points. Therefore, our results imply independent empirical evidence for the idea that past abrupt shifts were associated with the passing of critical thresholds. Because the mechanism causing slowing down is fundamentally inherent to tipping points, it follows that our way to detect slowing down might be used as a universal early warning signal for upcoming catastrophic change. Because tipping points in ecosystems and other complex systems are notoriously hard to predict in other ways, this is a promising perspective. PMID:18787119

  13. Can Geoengineering Effectively Reduce the Land Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, W.; MacMartin, D.; Moore, J. C.; Ji, D.

    2017-12-01

    Permafrost, defined as ground that remains at or below 0 C for two or more consecutive years, underlies 24% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere. Under recent climate warming, permafrost has begun to thaw, causing changes in ecosystems and impacting northern communities. Using the multiple land model output from the Permafrost Carbon Network and applying 5 commonly used permafrost diagnostic methods, we assess the projected Northern Hemisphere permafrost area under RCP 8.5 scenario. Both the air and soil relative warming change is compared to highlight the soil warming pattern and intensity. Using the multiple Earth System Models output under abrupt 4×CO2, G1, PI-control, G3, G4, and RCP4.5 experiments, a preliminary attempt is also performed to examine the effectiveness of geoengineering schemes on reducing the land warming. Although there is uncertainty in the projected results due to model and method difference, the soil temperature based methods derived permafrost all present an intense decrease by 48% - 68% until 2100. The projected soil temperature by the more physically complicated model shows a different warming pattern compared with the air, which indicates that some potential land process intervene with the land response to atmospheric change. The simulated soil temperature can be effectively cooled down by 2 - 9 degree under G1 compared with abrupt 4×CO2, and by less than 4 degree under G3 and G4 compared with RCP4.5.

  14. Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for B lling-Aller d Warming

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Erickson, David J

    2009-01-01

    We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Boelling-Alleroed (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition ismore » caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient CO{sub 2} forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.« less

  15. Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.

    PubMed

    Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio

    2014-06-12

    The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

  16. Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward

    The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less

  17. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-10-06

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

  18. Coherent Sea Ice Variations in the Nordic Seas and Abrupt Greenland Climate Changes over Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadatzki, H.; Berben, S.; Dokken, T.; Stein, R.; Fahl, K.; Jansen, E.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid changes in sea ice extent in the Nordic Seas may have played a crucial role in controlling the abruptness of ocean circulation and climate changes associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial (Li et al., 2010; Dokken et al., 2013). To investigate the role of sea ice for abrupt climate changes, we produced a sea ice record from the Norwegian Sea Core MD99-2284 at a temporal resolution approaching that of ice core records, covering four D-O cycles at ca. 32-41 ka. This record is based on the sea ice diatom biomarker IP25, open-water phytoplankton biomarker dinosterol and semi-quantitative phytoplankton-IP25 (PIP25) estimates. A detailed tephrochronology of MD99-2284 corroborates the tuning-based age model and independently constrains the GS9/GIS8 transition, allowing for direct comparison between our sediment and ice core records. For cold stadials we find extremely low fluxes of total organic carbon, dinosterol and IP25, which points to a general absence of open-water phytoplankton and ice algae production under a near-permanent sea ice cover. For the interstadials, in turn, all biomarker fluxes are strongly enhanced, reflecting a highly productive sea ice edge situation and implying largely open ocean conditions for the eastern Nordic Seas. As constrained by three tephra layers, we observe that the stadial-interstadial sea ice decline was rapid and may have induced a coeval abrupt northward shift in the Greenland precipitation moisture source as recorded in ice cores. The sea ice retreat also facilitated a massive heat release through deep convection in the previously stratified Nordic Seas, generating atmospheric warming of the D-O events. We thus conclude that rapid changes in sea ice extent in the Nordic Seas amplified oceanic reorganizations and were a key factor in controlling abrupt Greenland climate changes over D-O cycles. Dokken, T.M. et al., 2013. Paleoceanography 28, 491-502 Li, C. et al., 2010. Journ. Clim. 23, 5457-5475

  19. Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing.

    PubMed

    2013-08-22

    The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes.

  20. Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    WAIS Divide Project Members,; Fudge, T. J.; Steig, Eric J.; Markle, Bradley R.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Ding, Qinghua; Taylor, Kendrick C.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Brook, Edward J.; Sowers, Todd; White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Cheng, Hai; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Edwards, Jon S.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Edwards, Ross; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, David; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Johnson, Jay; Hargreaves, Geoffrey; Lee, James E.; Maselli, Olivia J.; Mason, William; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter; Orsi, Anais J.; Popp, Trevor J.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Sigl, Michael; Spencer, Matthew K.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Wang, Xianfeng; Wong, Gifford J.

    2013-01-01

    The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes.

  1. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Beaugrand, Grégory; Edwards, Martin; Brander, Keith; Luczak, Christophe; Ibanez, Frederic

    2008-11-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

  2. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Cronin, T. M.; Demenocal, P.B.; Okahashi, H.; Linsley, B.K.

    2008-01-01

    We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Aller??d Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until ???8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  3. Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

    2011-01-01

    Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

  4. Not Just the 8.2 event: Dynamic Early Holocene Climate in Arctic Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Axford, Y.; Briner, J. P.; Miller, G. H.; Francis, D. R.

    2006-12-01

    Temperature reconstructions from a lake in the eastern Canadian Arctic indicate that peak warmth in the early Holocene was interrupted by two abrupt, short-lived temperature reversals at ~9.l and ~8.5 ka. Summer temperatures at Lake CF8, Baffin Island (~500 km west of Greenland) are inferred from subfossil midge (Chironomidae) assemblages. Our results indicate that the site, like others on Baffin Island, experienced exceptionally warm summers (almost 5°C warmer than present) through much of the early Holocene, presumably in response to enhanced summer insolation. After 1000 years of very warm, stable climate, warmth was interrupted by two discrete cold reversals at ~9.1 and ~8.5 ka, during which multiple cold-stenothermous midge taxa appeared in the lake and summer temperatures dropped more than 3°C. These two clearly-defined reversals, well beyond the range of background variability, were of similar amplitude and duration, and were separated by several centuries of near-peak warmth. The only Holocene events of comparable amplitude at this site are the rapid onset of Holocene warmth, and the more gradual Neoglacial cooling after 8 ka. Abrupt cooling events over the Baffin region are consistent with model simulations of the impacts of freshwater outbursts into the Labrador Sea, such as the Lake Agassiz outburst flood that occurred ~8.4 ka. That there are two discrete events recorded at this site indicates that the "8.2 event" was not uniquely significant in this region; rather, the period between approximately ~9.2 and 8 ka was characterized by repeated climate fluctuations forced by multiple outburst floods or other mechanisms. Thus global correlations among paleoclimate records need not assume that climate perturbations during this time period necessarily correlate with the draining of Lake Agassiz or the 8.2 ka cooling in central Greenland.

  5. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

    PubMed Central

    Semenchuk, Philipp R; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often

  6. Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, G. T.

    2006-12-01

    The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of

  7. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-01-01

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

  8. Response of the tropical Pacific to abrupt climate change 8,200 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D.; Bitz, C. M.; Sachs, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    The relatively stable climate of the Holocene epoch was punctuated by a period of large and abrupt climate change ca. 8,200 yr BP, when an outburst of glacial meltwater into the Labrador Sea drove large and abrupt climate changes across the globe. However, little is known about the response of the tropical Pacific to this event. We present the first evidence for large perturbations to the eastern tropical Pacific climate, based on sedimentary biomarker and hydrogen isotopic records from a freshwater lake in the Galápagos Islands. We inform these reconstructions with freshwater forcing simulations performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Together, the biomarker records and model simulations provide evidence for a mechanistic link between (1) a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern equatorial Pacific and (2) decreased frequency and/or intensity of Eastern Pacific El Niño events during the 8,200 BP event. While climate theory and modeling studies support a southward shift of the ITCZ in response to a weakened AMOC, the dynamical drivers for the observed change in ENSO variability are less well developed. To explore these linkages, we perform simulations with an intermediate complexity model of the tropical Pacific. These results provide valuable insight into the controls of tropical Pacific climate variability and the mechanisms behind the global response to abrupt climate change.

  9. Response of a Habitat-Forming Marine Plant to a Simulated Warming Event Is Delayed, Genotype Specific, and Varies with Phenology

    PubMed Central

    Reynolds, Laura K.; DuBois, Katherine; Abbott, Jessica M.; Williams, Susan L.; Stachowicz, John J.

    2016-01-01

    Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass). We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14–15°C, but extended warming periods of 17–18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes’ production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control) were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species’ thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient frequency of

  10. Response of a Habitat-Forming Marine Plant to a Simulated Warming Event Is Delayed, Genotype Specific, and Varies with Phenology.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Laura K; DuBois, Katherine; Abbott, Jessica M; Williams, Susan L; Stachowicz, John J

    2016-01-01

    Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass). We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14-15°C, but extended warming periods of 17-18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes' production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control) were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species' thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient frequency of warming

  11. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

    2017-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

  12. Abrupt transitions to a cold North Atlantic in the late Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford; Larsen, Darren; Florian, Christopher; Pendleton, Simon

    2015-04-01

    The Holocene provides a time interval with boundary conditions similar to present, except for greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent high-resolution Northern Hemisphere records show general cooling related to orbital terms through the late Holocene, but also highly non-linear abrupt departures of centennial scale summer cold periods. These abrupt departures are evident within the last two millennia (the transitions between the Roman Warm Period (RWP, ~2,000 yr BP), the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP, ~500-900 years AD), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 1000-1200 years AD) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, ~1300-1900 AD). A series of new, high-resolution and securely dated lake records from Iceland also show abrupt climate departures over the past 2 ka, characterized by shifts to persistent cold summers and an expanded cryosphere. Despite substantial differences in catchment-specific processes that dominate the lake records, the multi-proxy reconstructions are remarkably similar. After nearly a millennium with little evidence of significant climate shifts, the beginning of the first millennium AD is characterized by renewed summer cooling that leads to an expanding cryosphere. Slow summer cooling over the first five centuries is succeeded by widespread substantial cooling, with evidence for substantial expansion of glaciers and ice caps throughout our field areas between 530 and 900 AD, and an accompanying reduction in vegetation cover across much of Iceland that led to widespread landscape instability. These data suggest that the North Atlantic system began a transition into a new cold state early in the first millennium AD, which was amplified after 500 AD, until it was interrupted by warmer Medieval times between ~1000 and 1250 AD. Although severe soil erosion in Iceland is frequently associated with human settlement dated to 871 ±2 AD our reconstructions indicate that soil erosion began several centuries before settlement, during the DACP, whereas for several centuries

  13. Observation and analysis of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, R. N.; Belcher, J. W.; Lazarus, A. J.

    1973-01-01

    This paper presents a limited study of the physical nature of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field based on 19 day's data from the Pioneer 6 spacecraft. The period was chosen to include a high-velocity solar wind stream and low-velocity wind. Abrupt events were accepted for study if the sum of the energy density in the magnetic field and velocity changes was above a specified minimum. A statistical analysis of the events in the high-velocity solar wind stream shows that Alfvenic changes predominate. This conclusion is independent of whether steady state requirements are imposed on conditions before and after the event. Alfvenic changes do not dominate in the lower-speed wind. This study extends the plasma field evidence for outwardly propagating Alfvenic changes to time scales as small as 1 min (scale lengths on the order of 20,000 km).

  14. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  15. Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

    2018-02-01

    Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

  16. A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.; Bigler, Matthias; Blockley, Simon P.; Blunier, Thomas; Buchardt, Susanne L.; Clausen, Henrik B.; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Johnsen, Sigfus J.; Fischer, Hubertus; Gkinis, Vasileios; Guillevic, Myriam; Hoek, Wim Z.; Lowe, J. John; Pedro, Joel B.; Popp, Trevor; Seierstad, Inger K.; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Svensson, Anders M.; Vallelonga, Paul; Vinther, Bo M.; Walker, Mike J. C.; Wheatley, Joe J.; Winstrup, Mai

    2014-12-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial-Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a

  17. Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events

    PubMed Central

    Marcott, Shaun A.; Clark, Peter U.; Padman, Laurie; Klinkhammer, Gary P.; Springer, Scott R.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ungerer, Andy; Padman, June; He, Feng; Cheng, Jun; Schmittner, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Episodic iceberg-discharge events from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream (HSIS) of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, referred to as Heinrich events, are commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instabilities, but their systematic occurrence at the culmination of a large reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) indicates a climate control. We report Mg/Ca data on benthic foraminifera from an intermediate-depth site in the northwest Atlantic and results from a climate-model simulation that reveal basin-wide subsurface warming at the same time as large reductions in the AMOC, with temperature increasing by approximately 2 °C over a 1–2 kyr interval prior to a Heinrich event. In simulations with an ocean model coupled to a thermodynamically active ice shelf, the increase in subsurface temperature increases basal melt rate under an ice shelf fronting the HSIS by a factor of approximately 6. By analogy with recent observations in Antarctica, the resulting ice-shelf loss and attendant HSIS acceleration would produce a Heinrich event. PMID:21808034

  18. Imminent onset and abrupt increase in duration of low aragonite and calcite saturation state events in the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, T.; Hauri, C.; Timmermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid progression of ocean acidification is a threat to key organisms of the Southern Ocean ecosystem. While the severity of ocean acidification impacts is mainly determined by the duration, intensity, and spatial extent of low aragonite or calcite saturation state events, little is known about the nature of these events, their evolving attributes, and the timing of their onset. Using output of historical and RCP 8.5 simulations from ten Earth System Models from CMIP5, we found that aragonite undersaturation, which decreases the calcification rate of pteropods and causes dissolution of their aragonitic shell, will spread rapidly after 2035, covering 70 % of the Southern Ocean surface waters by 2095. Surface aragonite undersaturation events will last for about 5 months in areas south of 60°S by 2055, and for more than 8 months by the end of the century. Overall, the duration of these events increases from 1 month to more than 6 months within fewer than 20 years in >75 % of the affected area. This abrupt change in exposure duration to unfavorable conditions may be too fast for pteropods to adapt, as these chemical changes will occur within just a few generations. As a result of two month-long calcite undersaturation events projected for the end of this century, even organisms built of the more stable calcium carbonate mineral calcite will face prolonged chemical dissolution. The threat of ocean acidification to the Southern Ocean ecosystem may be more imminent than previously thought, and may spread quickly to the southern tips of New Zealand, South America, and South Africa, with potentially far-reaching consequences to fisheries, local economies, and livelihoods.

  19. Abrupt shifts in ecosystem function and intensification of global biogeochemical cycle driven by hydroclimatic extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Zhang, Yongguang; Xie, Zunyi; Giovannini, Leandro; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

    2016-04-01

    Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is increasing the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme climate events globally. The potential influences resulting from amplification of the hydro-climatic cycle, coupled with an accelerating warming trend, pose great concerns on the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, maintain biodiversity, provide ecosystem services, food security, and support human livelihood. Despite the great implications, the magnitude, direction, and carry-over effect of these extreme climate events on ecosystem function, remain largely uncertain. To address these pressing issues, we conducted an observational, interdisciplinary study using satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis (chlorophyll fluorescence), and in-situ flux tower measures of ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, to reveal the shifts in ecosystem function across extreme drought and wet periods. We further determine the factors that govern ecosystem sensitivity to hydroclimatic extremes. We focus on Australia but extended our analyses to other global dryland regions due to their significant role in global biogeochemical cycles. Our results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet hydroclimatic extremes on ecosystem function, with abrupt changes in vegetation productivity, carbon uptake, and water-use-efficiency between years. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of vegetation growth seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during extreme drought years. We further identified a significant increasing trend (p < 0.001) in extreme wet year precipitation amounts over Australia and many other global regions, resulting in an increasing trend in magnitude of the episodic carbon sink pulses coupled to each La Niña-induced wet years. This finding is of global biogeochemical significance, with the consequence of amplifying

  20. Percolation Features on Climate Network under Attacks of El Niño Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Percolation theory under different attacks is one of the main research areas in complex networks but never be applied to investigate climate network. In this study, for the first time we construct a climate network of surface air temperature field to analyze its percolation features. Here, we regard El Niño event as a kind of naturally attacks generated from Pacific Ocean to attack its upper climate network. We find that El Niño event leads an abrupt percolation phase transition to the climate network which makes it splitting and unstable suddenly. Comparing the results of the climate network under three different forms of attacks, including most connected attack (MA), localized attack (LA) and random attack (RA) respectively, it is found that both MA and LA lead first-order transition and RA leads second-order transition to the climate network. Furthermore, we find that most real attacks consist of all these three forms of attacks. With El Niño event emerging, the ratios of LA and MA increase and dominate the style of attack while RA decreasing. It means the percolation phase transition due to El Niño events is close to first-order transition mostly affected by LA and MA. Our research may help us further understand two questions from perspective of percolation on network: (1) Why not all warming in Pacific Ocean but El Niño events could affect the climate. (2) Why the climate affected by El Niño events changes abruptly.

  1. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  2. Volcanic Forcing of Global Warming during the Pleistocene?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ericson, J. E.

    2002-12-01

    The volcanic forcing hypothesis is a new model of global climatic change that may have significance for the history of the Earth and palaeoclimate. The rapid injection of CO2 into the atmosphere during volcanic eruption through underlying massive carbonate appears to trigger global warming through the emission of this greenhouse gas. The record of eruptions (10-20 Kya) of 6 volcanoes overlying 900-10,000 meters of carbonate of the Cordillerian geosyncline in the American Southwest is synchronous with the Late Pleistocene marine transgression record. The record of volcanic eruptions through massive carbonates (20-71 Kya) in Italy, Indonesia and the American Southwest appears to be synchronous with the Wisconsin interstadial events. The extension of the volcanic eruption and climatic records to 71 Kya and inclusion of other volcanic regions represents additional supporting of evidence of the volcanic forcing hypothesis. As an example of these processes, the thermal dissociation of carbonate by magma forming a volcanic conduit (0.4 km high, 0.5 km radius) and subsequent release of carbon dioxide would increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide by 25%. The emitted CO2 would trigger a series of other processes, ocean-atmospheric CO2 exchange, increased photosynthesis and changes with terrestrial biome and global warming. [Recent field reconnaissance of Sunset Crater (erupted 1064-65 AD) indicates the evidence for thermal dissolution of limestone during basaltic extrusion.] Carbon dioxide emitted from volcanic-carbonate sources meets several observed conditions: a rapid increase (<20 years) in atmospheric carbon dioxide, abrupt increases of marine (isotopic) carbon, dilution of atmospheric radiocarbon activity independent of fluctuations of the geomagnetic field and cosmic ray fluxes, temporal covariation of sulfate, Ca+2, and CO2 in ice core records and random, interstadial events during glaciation. Volcanic forcing hypothesis represents a new model and synthesis of

  3. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  4. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

  5. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

    2016-02-01

    In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days

  6. Rapid sea level rise and ice sheet response to 8,200-year climate event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Vogt, P.R.; Willard, D.A.; Thunell, R.; Halka, J.; Berke, M.; Pohlman, J.

    2007-01-01

    The largest abrupt climatic reversal of the Holocene interglacial, the cooling event 8.6–8.2 thousand years ago (ka), was probably caused by catastrophic release of glacial Lake Agassiz-Ojibway, which slowed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and cooled global climate. Geophysical surveys and sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay reveal the pattern of sea level rise during this event. Sea level rose ∼14 m between 9.5 to 7.5 ka, a pattern consistent with coral records and the ICE-5G glacio-isostatic adjustment model. There were two distinct periods at ∼8.9–8.8 and ∼8.2–7.6 ka when Chesapeake marshes were drown as sea level rose rapidly at least ∼12 mm yr−1. The latter event occurred after the 8.6–8.2 ka cooling event, coincided with extreme warming and vigorous AMOC centered on 7.9 ka, and may have been due to Antarctic Ice Sheet decay.

  7. Vertical Wave Coupling associated with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events analyzed in an Isentropic-Coordinate NWP Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.

  8. Deglacial Tropical Atlantic subsurface warming links ocean circulation variability to the West African Monsoon.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Parker, Andrew O; Ji, Link; He, Feng

    2017-11-13

    Multiple lines of evidence show that cold stadials in the North Atlantic were accompanied by both reductions in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and collapses of the West African Monsoon (WAM). Although records of terrestrial change identify abrupt WAM variability across the deglaciation, few studies show how ocean temperatures evolved across the deglaciation. To identify the mechanism linking AMOC to the WAM, we generated a new record of subsurface temperature variability over the last 21 kyr based on Mg/Ca ratios in a sub-thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera in an Eastern Equatorial Atlantic (EEA) sediment core from the Niger Delta. Our subsurface temperature record shows abrupt subsurface warming during both the Younger Dryas (YD) and Heinrich Event 1. We also conducted a new transient coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation across the YD that better resolves the western boundary current dynamics and find a strong negative correlation between AMOC strength and EEA subsurface temperatures caused by changes in ocean circulation and rainfall responses that are consistent with the observed WAM change. Our combined proxy and modeling results provide the first evidence that an oceanic teleconnection between AMOC strength and subsurface temperature in the EEA impacted the intensity of the WAM on millennial time scales.

  9. Spatial and Temporal Changes in Coral Community Responses to Ocean Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barkley, H.; Cohen, A. L.

    2016-02-01

    Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature is projected to rise 2-3°C by the end of this century, fueling efforts to identify thermally-tolerant reef communities that have the best chance of surviving future climate change. We used skeletal indicators of thermal stress in massive Porites corals collected across the Palau archipelago to document spatial and temporal changes in community-scale tolerance to anomalous warm events associated with the 1998 and 2010 Pacific ENSOs. Within communities where bleaching was documented by visual surveys, we find a strong correlation between percent bleaching and the proportion of surviving Porites colonies exhibiting skeletal density anomalies or "stress bands". Using this relationship, we reconstructed the intensity and spatial patterns of bleaching during the 1998 ENSO event when survey data are limited. On exposed barrier reefs and inshore fringing reefs, the proportion of corals with 1998 stress bands (60% and 40% respectively) was consistent with that expected from DHW predictions and post-bleaching surveys. Conversely, in the Rock Island bays, where ambient temperatures were highest, no 1998 stress bands were recorded. However, these corals did respond to the 2010 thermal anomaly with the appearance of stress bands and an abrupt decline in calcification. The reasons for this apparent shift in thermal tolerance in response to the relatively weak 2010 warming are not yet clear. While the interplay of temperature with other environmental variables including light and flow cannot yet be ruled out, stressors associated with an increase in human activities, including tourism, on Palau are also considered.

  10. Coupling between strong warm ENSO events and the phase of the stratospheric QBO.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christiansen, Bo

    2017-04-01

    Although there in general are no significant long-term correlations between the QBO and the ENSO in observations we find that the QBO and the ENSO were aligned in the 3 to 4 years after the three strong warm ENSO events in 1982, 1997, and 2015. We study this possible connection between the QBO and the ENSO with a new version of the EC-Earth model which includes non-orographic gravity waves and a well modeled QBO. We analyze the modeled QBO in ensembles consisting of 10 AMIP-type experiments with climatological SSTs and 10 experiments with observed daily SSTs. The model experiments cover the period 1982-2013. For the ENSO we use the multivariate index (MEI). As expected the coherence is strong and statistically significant in the equatorial troposphere in the ensemble with observed SSTs. Here the coherence is a measure of the alignment of the ensemble members. In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can directly influence the phase of the QBO. An open and maybe related question is what caused the anomalous QBO in 2016. This behaviour, which is unprecedented in the 50-60 years with data, has been described as a hiccup or a death-spiral. At least it is clear that in the last 18 months the QBO has been stuck in the same corner of the phase-space spanned by its two leading principal components. The possible connection to the ENSO will be investigated.

  11. Millennial-scale precipitation variability over Easter Island (South Pacific) during MIS 3: inter-hemispheric teleconnections with North Atlantic abrupt cold events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margalef, O.; Cacho, I.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Cañellas-Boltà, N.; Pueyo, J. J.; Sáez, A.; Pena, L. D.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Rull, V.; Giralt, S.

    2015-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 59.4-27.8 kyr BP) is characterized by the occurrence of rapid millennial-scale climate oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (DO) and by abrupt cooling events in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich events. Although both the timing and dynamics of these events have been broadly explored in North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes to these rapid climatic excursions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains unclear. The Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, 27° S) provides a unique opportunity to understand atmospheric and oceanic changes in the South Pacific during these DO cycles because of its singular location, which is influenced by the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), the Southern Westerlies (SW), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) linked to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Rano Aroi sequence records 6 major events of enhanced precipitation between 38 and 65 kyr BP. These events are compared with other hydrological records from the tropical and subtropical band supporting a coherent regional picture, with the dominance of humid conditions in Southern Hemisphere tropical band during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 5, 5a and 6 and other Stadials while dry conditions prevailed in the Northern tropics. This antiphased hydrological pattern between hemispheres has been attributed to ITCZ migration, which in turn might be associated with an eastward expansion of the SPCZ storm track, leading to an increased intensity of cyclogenic storms reaching Easter Island. Low Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients across the Equator were coincident with the here-defined Rano Aroi humid events and consistent with a reorganization of Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulation also at higher latitudes during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials.

  12. Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

    PubMed

    Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

    2016-09-01

    Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Abrupt Change in Ecological Systems: Inference and Diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Ratajczak, Zak; Carpenter, Stephen R; Ives, Anthony R; Kucharik, Christopher J; Ramiadantsoa, Tanjona; Stegner, M Allison; Williams, John W; Zhang, Jien; Turner, Monica G

    2018-05-18

    Abrupt ecological changes are, by definition, those that occur over short periods of time relative to typical rates of change for a given ecosystem. The potential for such changes is growing due to anthropogenic pressures, which challenges the resilience of societies and ecosystems. Abrupt ecological changes are difficult to diagnose because they can arise from a variety of circumstances, including rapid changes in external drivers (e.g., climate, or resource extraction), nonlinear responses to gradual changes in drivers, and interactions among multiple drivers and disturbances. We synthesize strategies for identifying causes of abrupt ecological change and highlight instances where abrupt changes are likely. Diagnosing abrupt changes and inferring causation are increasingly important as society seek to adapt to rapid, multifaceted environmental changes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2010-01-01

    "Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

  15. Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2011-01-01

    "Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

  16. Revealing Abrupt and Spontaneous Ruptures of Protein Native Structure under picoNewton Compressive Force Manipulation.

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, S Roy; Cao, Jin; He, Yufan; Lu, H Peter

    2018-03-27

    Manipulating protein conformations for exploring protein structure-function relationship has shown great promise. Although protein conformational changes under pulling force manipulation have been extensively studied, protein conformation changes under a compressive force have not been explored quantitatively. The latter is even more biologically significant and relevant in revealing protein functions in living cells associated with protein crowdedness, distribution fluctuations, and cell osmotic stress. Here we report our experimental observations on abrupt ruptures of protein native structures under compressive force, demonstrated and studied by single-molecule AFM-FRET spectroscopic nanoscopy. Our results show that the protein ruptures are abrupt and spontaneous events occurred when the compressive force reaches a threshold of 12-75 pN, a force amplitude accessible from thermal fluctuations in a living cell. The abrupt ruptures are sensitive to local environment, likely a general and important pathway of protein unfolding in living cells.

  17. Conclusive evidence of abrupt coagulation inside the void during cyclic nanoparticle formation in reactive plasma

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wetering, F. M. J. H. van de; Nijdam, S.; Beckers, J.

    2016-07-25

    In this letter, we present scanning electron microscopy (SEM) results that confirm in a direct way our earlier explanation of an abrupt coagulation event as the cause for the void hiccup. In a recent paper, we reported on the fast and interrupted expansion of voids in a reactive dusty argon–acetylene plasma. The voids appeared one after the other, each showing a peculiar, though reproducible, behavior of successive periods of fast expansion, abrupt contraction, and continued expansion. The abrupt contraction was termed “hiccup” and was related to collective coagulation of a new generation of nanoparticles growing in the void using relativelymore » indirect methods: electron density measurements and optical emission spectroscopy. In this letter, we present conclusive evidence using SEM of particles collected at different moments in time spanning several growth cycles, which enables us to follow the nanoparticle formation process in great detail.« less

  18. Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal.

    PubMed

    Schenk, Frederik; Väliranta, Minna; Muschitiello, Francesco; Tarasov, Lev; Heikkilä, Maija; Björck, Svante; Brandefelt, Jenny; Johansson, Arne V; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2018-04-24

    The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

  19. Postglacial Human resilience and susceptibility to abrupt climate change new insights from Star Carr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon; Abrook, Ashley; Bayliss, Alex; Candy, Ian; Conneller, Chantal; Darvill, Chris; Deeprose, Laura; Kearney, Rebecca; Langdon, Pete; Langdon Langdon, Cath; Lincoln, Paul; Macleod, Alison; Matthews, Ian; Palmer, Adrian; Schreve, Danielle; Taylor, Barry; Milner, Nicky

    2017-04-01

    We know little about the lives of the early humans who lived during the early Postglacial period (the Lateglacial and Early Holocene), a time characterised by abrupt climate change after 16,000, which includes a series of abrupt climatic transitions linked to the reorganisation of the global environment after the glacial maximum and the last major global warming event at the onset of the Holocene. The hunter-gatherers who lived during the early Postglacial have been characterised as highly mobile, dispersed and living within small groups, and there is much debate as to how they adapted to climatic and environmental change: did they move in response to climatic transitions (and if so what was the climatic threshold), or instead adapt their lifeways to the new environmental conditions? A key area for examining these ideas is the British Isles as it sits on the Atlantic fringe of Northwest Europe with a climate that is highly responsive to the wider climate forcing experienced in the northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, in this period, Britain is directly linked to continental Europe due to lowered global sea levels allowing for the ease of human migration in and out of this region. In general the British record has been seen as being dominated by abandonment and reoccupation in the Postglacial during periods of climatic transition with hunter-gatherer mobility being closely linked to the prevailing environment. Recent discoveries at the Early Mesolithic site of Star Carr and surrounding area, linked to local and regional climate records, based on isotopic, chironomid and pollen proxy data and dated at high chronological resolution, offer a new picture. Postglacial human occupation of the area commences at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition but is short lived and appears to end close to the Pre-Boreal Oscillation, However, this is followed by a period where hunter-gatherers occupy Star Carr and settle and invest time and effort into building huts and large scale wooden

  20. Analysis of warm convective rain events in Catalonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballart, D.; Figuerola, F.; Aran, M.; Rigo, T.

    2009-09-01

    steep slopes. These factors increase the number of flash floods and the risk indexes. In the present study it is showed the general characteristics of the warm rain events observed in Catalonia, using meteorological, pluviometric, thermodynamic, and remote sensing data. Beside this, other heavy rain events with different features have been analyzed with the purpose of identify the main differences and to improve the knowledge in order to provide enough information for surveillance tasks

  1. Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silverio, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nobrega, Caroline C.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, longterm experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW x m(exp -1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with less than 1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

  2. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions.

    PubMed

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K; Nepstad, Daniel C; Morton, Douglas C; Putz, Francis E; Coe, Michael T; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N; Davidson, Eric A; Nóbrega, Caroline C; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2014-04-29

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW ⋅ m(-1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

  3. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

    PubMed Central

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

  4. State survey of medical boards regarding abrupt loss of a prescriber of controlled substances.

    PubMed

    Sera, Leah; Brown, Micke; McPherson, Mary Lynn; Walker, Kathryn A; Klein-Schwartz, Wendy

    The purpose of the study was to evaluate states' experiences with abrupt changes in controlled substances (CS) prescribing, to determine whether states have action plans in place to manage such situations, and describe the components of any such plans. A survey of executive directors of 51 medical boards was conducted to evaluate states' experiences with abrupt changes in CS prescribing, the extent of consumer complaints attributed to these events, and the types of plans in place to manage these situations. Forty-six executive directors of medical boards responded. Twenty boards (43.5 percent) confirmed that their state had experienced abrupt loss of CS providers and 11 (55 percent) of these executive directors indicated that the loss resulted in increased consumer complaints. The majority of executive directors (86 percent) had no action plan. Six executive directors reported some type of action plan or process consisting of regulatory action, patient-provider connection, professional education, patient education, or public notice. Most states do not have operational plans in place. However, a few have key strategies that may be useful in addressing potential problems following abrupt loss of a CS prescriber. State medical boards can play a significant role in the development of comprehensive preparedness plans to mitigate damage from the loss of CS prescribers in the community.

  5. [Smoking abstinence rate and its associated factors between abrupt and gradual smoking cessation].

    PubMed

    Hao, R; Zhou, J P; Ni, L; Li, Q Y; Shi, G C

    2017-12-12

    Objective: To analyze and compare the abstinence rate of smoking quitting methods and its associated factors between abrupt and gradual smoking cessation in smokers with drug-based therapy. Methods: A prospective clinical study was conducted in patients undergoing quitting smoking intervention in Ruijin Hospital smoking cessation clinic between June 2013 and May 2016. All the subjects were randomized in a 1∶1 ratio into the abrupt smoking cessation group (smoking as usual over 3 weeks before a planned quit day, and then stopping smoking abruptly) and the gradual smoking cessation group (gradually reducing tobacco use over 3 weeks before a planned quit day, and then stopping smoking totally). The primary outcome was the complete abstinence rate, and the secondary outcomes included 1-month, 3-month and 6 month 7-day point prevalence of abstinence rates and 3 month sustained abstinence rates. Changes of body weight and drug adverse events were also compared. Results: A total of 314 moderate to severe nicotine-dependent patients were admitted in the study, including 157 patients in the abrupt smoking cessation and 157 patients in the gradual smoking cessation group. Fourteen patients fell off during the follow-up. For the complete abstinence rate, the gradual smoking cessation group was higher than the abrupt smoking cessation group(55.0% vs . 36.9%, χ(2)=9.841, P =0.002) .For 7-d smoking abstinence rate in the 1st, 3rd, 6th month, there was no significant difference between the 2 groups (all P >0.05). As for the 3-month sustained abstinence rate, a higher smoking quitting rate was seen in the gradual smoking cessation group compared to the abrupt smoking cessation group in the 6-month follow-up (17.9% vs .8.7%, χ(2)=5.441, P =0.020). The adverse drug reaction incidence was higher in the abrupt smoking cessation group than the gradual smoking cessation group (Gastrointestinal discomfort: 39.2% vs . 17.7%, χ(2)=12.336, P =0.000; Dreaminess: 40.2% vs . 13.3%, χ(2

  6. Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The occurrence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states are of great concern and the likelihood of such transitions is increasing for many ecological systems. General understanding of abrupt transitions has been advanced by theory, but hindered by the l...

  7. Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming.

    PubMed

    Post, Eric S; Pedersen, Christian; Wilmers, Christopher C; Forchhammer, Mads C

    2008-02-01

    Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.

  8. Controls on the abruptness of gravel-sand transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venditti, J. G.; Church, M. A.; Lamb, M. P.; Domarad, N.; Rennie, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    As gravel-bedded rivers fine downstream, they characteristically exhibit an abrupt transition from gravel- to sand-bed. This is the only abrupt transition in grain-size that occurs in the fluvial system and has attracted considerable attention. A number of competing theories have been proposed to account for the abruptness of the transition, including base-level control, attrition of ~10mm gravel to produce sand, and sediment sorting processes. The prevailing theory for the emergence of abrupt transitions is size selective sorting of bimodal sediment wherein gravel deposits due to downstream declining shear stress, fining the bedload until a sand-bed emerges. We explored this hypothesis by examining grain-size, shear stress, gravel mobility and sand suspension thresholds through the gravel-sand transition (GST) of the Fraser River, British Columbia. The Fraser GST is an arrested gravel wedge with patches of gravel downstream of the wedge forming a diffuse extension. There is an abrupt change in bed slope through the transition that leads to an abrupt change in shear stress. The GST, bed-slope change and backwater caused by the ocean are all coincident spatially, which enhances the sharpness of the GST. Interestingly, the bimodal reach of the river occurs downstream of the GST and exhibits no downstream gradients in shear stress, suspended sediment flux, gravel mobility or sand suspension thresholds. This calls into question the prevailing theory for the emergence of an abrupt GST by size selective sorting. We provide evidence, both empirical and theoretical, that suggests the emergence of an abrupt GST is caused by rapid deposition of sand when fine gravel deposits. We argue that the emergence of gravel-sand transitions is a consequence of gravel-bedded rivers adopting a steeper slope than sand-bedded rivers. The abruptness arises because the bed slope required to convey the gravel load fixes the distal location of a terminal gravel wedge, and once the river has

  9. Paleoclimate of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period Reconstructed from Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Limpet Shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, T.; Surge, D. M.; Mithen, S.

    2010-12-01

    Paleoclimate reconstructions from different regions have reported abrupt climate change around 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. The timing of this abrupt climate change is close to the boundary between the Neoglacial (3300-2500 cal yr B.P.) and Roman Warm Period (2500-1600 cal yr B.P.). However, temporal and spatial variability observed in this climate change event raises controversies about the forcing factors driving it and why it has regional variability. Scotland lies in the North Atlantic Ocean, which responds sensitively to climate change. Therefore, even in the case of subtle climate change, the climate variability of Scotland should be able to capture such change. In this study, we expect that paleoclimate reconstructions of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period in Scotland will help improve our knowledge of abrupt climate change at 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. Archaeological shell deposits provide a rich source of climate proxy data preserved as oxygen isotope ratios in shell carbonate. Croig Cave on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, contains a nearly continuous accumulation of shells ranging from 800 BC-500 AD and possibly older. This range represents a broad chronology of human use from the late Bronze to Iron Ages and spans the Neoglacial through Roman Warm Period climate episodes. Here, we present seasonal temperature variability of the two climate episodes based on oxygen isotope ratios of ten limpet shells (Patella vulgata) from Croig Cave. Based on AMS dating (2 sigma calibration), the oldest shell was from 3480-3330 cal yr B.P. and the youngest shell was from 2060-1870 cal yr B.P. Our results indicated that estimated temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets average 6.44±0.56°C for coldest winters and 15.06±0.67°C for warmest summers. For the Roman Warm Period limpets, the average is 5.68±0.36°C for coldest winters and 14.14±0.81°C for warmest summers. We compared our estimated temperatures to the present sea surface temperature (SST) from 1961 to 1990 near our

  10. Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

    2018-05-01

    The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

  11. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2014-05-01

    Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.

  12. A preliminary look at the impact of warming Mediterranean Sea temperatures on some aspects of extreme thunderstorm events in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallus, William; Parodi, Antonio; Miglietta, Marcello; Maugeri, Maurizio

    2017-04-01

    As the global climate has warmed in recent decades, interest has grown in the impacts on extreme events associated with thunderstorms such as tornadoes and intense rainfall that can cause flash flooding. Because warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to contain larger values of water vapor, it is generally accepted that short-term rainfall may become more intense in a future warmer climate. Regarding tornadoes, it is more difficult to say what might happen since although increased temperatures and humidity in the lowest part of the troposphere should increase thermodynamic instability, allowing for stronger thunderstorm updrafts, vertical wind shear necessary for storm-scale rotation may decrease as the pole to equator temperature gradient weakens. The Mediterranean Sea is an important source for moisture that fuels thunderstorms in Italy, and it has been warming faster than most water bodies in recent decades. The present study uses three methods to gain preliminary insight into the role that the warming Mediterranean may have on tornadoes and thunderstorms with intense rainfall in Italy. First, a historical archive of Italian tornadoes has been updated for the 1990s, and it will be used along with other data from the European Severe Weather Database to discuss possible trends in tornado occurrence. Second, convection-allowing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been performed for three extreme events to examine sensitivity to both the sea surface temperatures and other model parameters. These events include a flash flood-producing storm event near Milan, a non-tornadic severe hail event in far northeastern Italy, and the Mira EF-4 tornado of July 2015. Sensitivities in rainfall amount, radar reflectivity and storm structure, and storm rotation will be discussed. Finally, changes in the frequency of intense mesoscale convective system events in and near the Ligurian Sea, inferred from the presence of strong convergence lines in EXPRESS

  13. Response of the auroral electrojet indices to abrupt southward IMF turnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gjerloev, J. W.; Hoffman, R. A.; Ohtani, S.; Weygand, J.; Barnes, R.

    2010-05-01

    We present results from a study of the behavior of the auroral electrojet indices following abrupt southward turnings of the IMF Bz. The auroral electrojet indices are calculated from observations made by more than 100 ground based stations provided by the SuperMAG collaborators. Based on three simple criteria we selected 73 events. In each event the interval of analysis started at the time of the IMF Bz southward turning and ended 45 minutes later or at the onset of any abrupt energy unloading event in the magnetosphere, regardless of size. We refer to this period as the "pre-unloading phase". To isolate the dependence of the auroral electrojets on the solar induced ionospheric conductivity during this phase we separated the standard AU/AL indices into two new sets of indices defined by the upper and lower envelope of the north-south component for all sunlit stations (AUs/ALs) and for all stations in darkness (AUd/ALd). Based on events and statistical analyses we can conclude that following a southward turning of the IMF Bz the AUd/ALd indices show no measurable response while the AUs/ALs indices clearly intensify. The intensifications of AUs/ALs are dependent on the intensity of the solar wind driver (as measured by IMF Bz or the Akasofu ɛ parameter). The lack of AUd/ALd response does not depend on the intensity of any subsequent substorm. We find that during these isolated events the ionospheric current system is primarily confined to the sunlit ionosphere. This truncated version of the classical global DP-2 current system suggests that auroral electrojet continuity is not maintained across the terminator. Because of its conductivity dependence on the solar zenith angle, this truncated global current pattern is expected to be highly dependent on UT and season and thus can be asymmetric between hemispheres. Thus we argue that the global two-cell DP-2 current system is not a consequence only of a southward turning of the IMF but requires also the reduction of the

  14. Abrupt Climate Change in the Southern Great Plains during the Last Glacial Interval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Housson, A. L.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, B.; Shen, C. C.; Baykara, O.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; McChesney, C. L.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding how the climate of the North American Great Plains may change in the future is of tremendous socioeconomic importance, yet the regional response to previous abrupt global climate events, such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the last glacial interval, are poorly known. Here we present two absolutely dated (U/Th), partially replicated oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from calcite speleothems in central Texas (30° N, 98° W) that grew during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3) (31 to 49 ky BP). The study site experiences boreal spring and fall maxima in precipitation with rainfall moisture sourced almost exclusively from the Gulf of Mexico. The two samples exhibit reproducible δ18O means and variability during overlapping growth intervals. Weak correlations between paired oxygen and carbon isotopic values coupled with reproducible δ18O strongly suggest that dripwater δ18O and calcite formation temperatures are the primary drivers of speleothem δ18O variations through time. We interpret more depleted (enriched) δ18O values to reconstruct warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on observations of modern rainfall stable isotope variations at the study site. We find that warmer and wetter conditions in the Southern Plains are contemporaneous with MIS 3 DO interstadials, while cooler and more arid conditions prevail during stadials and Heinrich Events 4 and 5. Our results show a response opposite that of hydrologic reconstructions from the American Southwest, where wetter conditions occur with stadial conditions. Future work includes exploration of paleoclimate model results to examine potential mechanisms responsible for this opposite phasing. Our speleothem data indicate that further intensification of rainy seasons in the Southern Plains should not be ruled out as a response to anthropogenic global warming.

  15. Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

    PubMed

    Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P

    2009-10-01

    Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

  16. High resolution water stable isotope profiles of abrupt climate transitions in Greenland ice with new observations from NEEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, T. J.; White, J. W. C.; Gkinis, V.; Vinther, B. M.; Johnsen, S. J.

    2012-04-01

    In 1989 Willi Dansgaard and others, using the DYE3 ice core, showed that the abrupt termination of the Younger Dryas expressed in water stable isotope ratios and deuterium excess was completed in less than 50 years. A few years later, using the GISP2 ice core, Richard Alley and others proposed that snow accumulation at the site doubled in as little as 1-3 years across the same climate transition at the end of the Younger Dryas. Over the next two decades, in large part due to such observations from Greenland ice cores, a paradigm of linked, abrupt changes in the North Atlantic region has been developed around North Atlantic deep water formation, North Atlantic sea ice extent, and widespread atmospheric circulation changes occurring repeatedly during the last glacial period in response to changing freshwater fluxes to the region, or perhaps other causes. More recently, with the NGRIP ice core, using a suite of high resolution proxy data, and in particular deuterium excess, it was observed again that certain features in the climate system can switch modes from one year to the next, while other proxies can take from decades to centuries to completely switch modes. Thus, an event seen in the proxy records such as the abrupt end of the Younger Dryas (or other interstadial events) may comprise multiple climatic or oceanic responses with different relative timing and duration which potentially follow a predictable sequence of events, in some cases separated by only a few years. Today, the search continues for these emerging patterns through isotopic and other highly resolvable proxy data series from ice cores. With the recent completion of the drilling at NEEM, many abrupt transitions have now been measured in detail over a geographic transect with drilling sites spanning from DYE3 in Southern Greenland, GISP2 in the central summit region, and up to NGRIP and NEEM in the far north. The anatomy of abrupt climate transitions can therefore be examined both spatially and

  17. Numerical Study of the Role of Microphysical Latent Heating and Surface Heat Fluxes in a Severe Precipitation Event in the Warm Sector over Southern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong

    2018-02-01

    Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation

  18. The economics of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Perrings, Charles

    2003-09-15

    The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

  19. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-04

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.

  20. Oceanic link between abrupt changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the African monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Ping; Zhang, Rong; Hazeleger, Wilco; Wen, Caihong; Wan, Xiuquan; Ji, Link; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Breugem, Wim-Paul; Seidel, Howard

    2008-07-01

    Abrupt changes in the African monsoon can have pronounced socioeconomic impacts on many West African countries. Evidence for both prolonged humid periods and monsoon failures have been identified throughout the late Pleistocene and early Holocene epochs. In particular, drought conditions in West Africa have occurred during periods of reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, such as the Younger Dryas cold event. Here, we use an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to examine the link between oceanographic changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and changes in the strength of the African monsoon. Our simulations show that when North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is substantially weakened, the flow of the subsurface North Brazil Current reverses. This leads to decreased upper tropical ocean stratification and warmer sea surface temperatures in the equatorial South Atlantic Ocean, and consequently reduces African summer monsoonal winds and rainfall over West Africa. This mechanism is in agreement with reconstructions of past climate. We therefore suggest that the interaction between thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean and wind-driven currents in the tropical Atlantic Ocean contributes to the rapidity of African monsoon transitions during abrupt climate change events.

  1. Dynamics of the exceptional warming events during the Arctic winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2008/09

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuttippurath, Jayanarayanan; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Lefèvre, Franck; Nikulin, Grigory

    2010-05-01

    Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) are common features of the Arctic meteorology. During a major SSW, polar temperature rises and the zonal mean flow weakens dramatically over a short period of time. This situation causes displacement, distortion or split of the polar vortex. The Arctic winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2008/09 were characterized by major midwinter warming of different proportions. The major warming occurred in early January in 2003/04 and in mid-January in the other winters in the lower stratosphere. The winter 2003/04 was remarkable in that a stable vortex formed again in March 2004 after two months of severe disturbance. No vortex was evident in other winters after the mid-January major warming. The planetary waves 1 and 2 play a key role in warming events and in vortex distortions as they control the stratospheric circulation. The dominating presence and amplitude of these waves were also different in each winter. In this presentation, we characterize the winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2008/09 in terms of chemical and dynamical situation during the winters. In order to illustrate, we exploit the heat flux, zonal wind characteristics, Eliassen-Palm vectors and planetary wave analyzes for the winters in a comparative perspective. The dynamical parameters are derived from ECMWF analyzes and the chemical realm are discussed in terms of the measurements from MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) and POAM (Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement) as well as simulations from the Mimosa-Chim global three-dimensional chemical transport model.

  2. Comparisons of planetary wave propagation to the upper atmosphere during stratospheric warming events at different QBO phases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koval, Andrey V.; Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.; Savenkova, Elena N.

    2018-06-01

    The dynamical coupling of the lower and upper atmosphere by planetary waves (PWs) is studied. Numerical simulations of planetary wave (PW) amplitudes during composite sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in January-February are made using a model of general circulation of the middle and upper atmosphere with initial and boundary conditions typical for the westerly and easterly phases of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The changes in PW amplitudes in the middle atmosphere before, during and after SSW event for the different QBO phases are considered. Near the North Pole, the increase in the mean temperature during SSW reaches 10-30 K at altitudes 30-50 km for four pairs of the model runs with the eQBO and wQBO, which is characteristic for the sudden stratospheric warming event. Amplitudes of stationary PWs in the middle atmosphere of the Northern hemisphere may differ up to 30% during wQBO and eQBO before and during the SSW. After the SSW event SPW amplitudes are substantially larger during wQBO phase. PW refractivity indices and Eliassen-Palm flux vectors are calculated. The largest EP-fluxes in the middle atmosphere correspond to PWs with zonal wavenumber m=1. Simulated changes in PW amplitudes correspond to inhomogeneities of the global circulation, refractivity index and EP-flux produced by the changes in QBO phases. Comparisons of differences in PW characteristics and circulation between the wQBO and eQBO show that PWs could provide effective coupling mechanism and transport dynamical changes from local regions of the lower atmosphere to distant regions of the upper atmosphere of both hemispheres.

  3. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Vegetation responses to abrupt climatic changes during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage 5) at Tenaghi Philippon, NE Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, A. M.; Roucoux, K. H.; Collier, R. E. L.; Müller, U. C.; Pross, J.; Tzedakis, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The discovery that climate variability during the Last Glacial shifted rapidly between climate states has intensified efforts to understand the distribution, timing and impact of abrupt climate change under a wide range of boundary conditions. In contribution to this, we investigate the nature of abrupt environmental changes in terrestrial settings of the Mediterranean region during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5) and explore the relationships of these changes to high-latitude climate events. We present a new, temporally highly resolved (mean: 170 years) pollen record for the Last Interglacial Complex from Tenaghi Philippon, north-east Greece. The new pollen record, which spans the interval from 130,000 to 65,000 years ago, forms part of an exceptionally long polleniferous sediment archive covering the last 1.35 million years. The pollen data reveal an interglacial followed by alternating forest and steppe phases representing the interstadials and stadials of the Early Glacial. Superimposed on these millennial-scale changes is evidence of persistent sub-millennial-scale variability. We identify ten high-amplitude abrupt events in the pollen record, characterised by rapid contractions of closed forest to open steppe environment and interpreted to indicate major changes in moisture availability and temperature. The contractions in forest cover on millennial timescales appear associated with cooling events in the Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic and Greenland regions, linked to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the Early Glacial. On sub-millennial timescales, the pattern of changes in forest cover at Tenaghi Philippon display a structure similar to the pattern of short-lived precursor and rebound-type events detected in the Greenland ice-core record. Our findings indicate that persistent, high-amplitude environmental variability occurred throughout the Early Glacial, on both millennial and submillennial timescales. Furthermore, the

  5. Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe

    PubMed Central

    Pérez-Mejías, Carlos; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Bartolomé, Miguel; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence

    2017-01-01

    The Late Quaternary glacial–interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium–thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I). PMID:28874530

  6. Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Mejías, Carlos; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Bartolomé, Miguel; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence

    2017-09-19

    The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ 13 C, δ 18 O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

  7. Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Mejías, Carlos; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Bartolomé, Miguel; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence

    2017-09-01

    The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

  8. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-06-10

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050-4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400-4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions.

  9. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  10. Equatorial middle atmospheric chemical composition changes during sudden stratospheric warming events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nath, O.; Sridharan, S.

    2015-09-01

    Chemical composition data obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instruments onboard EOS-Aura and ENVISAT satellites are used to investigate the variation of ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O) and methane (CH4) volume mixing ratios (VMRs) in the height range 20-60 km over the equatorial region during the sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) of 2004, 2009 and 2012, the occurrence of which are identified using the ERA (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis) Interim temperature and zonal wind data sets. It is found that the O3 VMR shows increment whereas H2O VMR shows decrement during the SSW event and the possible reasons for these changes in the VMRs are investigated. In the upper stratosphere, the source of water vapor is oxidation of CH4 which takes place either by hydroxyl (OH) or by atomic oxygen (O). However, the OH VMR available for the year 2009 SSW event does not show any significant variation. The decrease of zonal mean MLS temperature over the equator during the SSW suggests that the rate of the reaction of ozone production (O + O2 ⟶ O3 + M), which increases with decreasing temperature, shifts the O/O3 ratio towards O3, resulting in the decrease of CH4 oxidation and consequent decrease in water vapor.

  11. A comparison of the momentum budget in reanalysis datasets during sudden stratospheric warming events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martineau, Patrick; Son, Seok-Woo; Taguchi, Masakazu; Butler, Amy H.

    2018-05-01

    The agreement between reanalysis datasets, in terms of the zonal-mean momentum budget, is evaluated during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. It is revealed that there is a good agreement among datasets in the lower stratosphere and troposphere concerning zonal-mean zonal wind, but less so in the upper stratosphere. Forcing terms of the momentum equation are also relatively similar in the lower atmosphere, but their uncertainties are typically larger than uncertainties of the zonal-wind tendency. Similar to zonal-wind tendency, the agreement among forcing terms is degraded in the upper stratosphere. Discrepancies among reanalyses increase during the onset of SSW events, a period characterized by unusually large fluxes of planetary-scale waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and decrease substantially after the onset. While the largest uncertainties in the resolved terms of the momentum budget are found in the Coriolis torque, momentum flux convergence also presents a non-negligible spread among the reanalyses. Such a spread is reduced in the latest reanalysis products, decreasing the uncertainty of the momentum budget. It is also found that the uncertainties in the Coriolis torque depend on the strength of SSW events: the SSW events that exhibit the most intense deceleration of zonal-mean zonal wind are subject to larger discrepancies among reanalyses. These uncertainties in stratospheric circulation, however, are not communicated to the troposphere.

  12. Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides at catchment scale: Threshold mechanics-based modeling for abruptness and localization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Ruette, J.; Lehmann, P.; Or, D.

    2013-10-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow landslides may occur abruptly without distinct precursors and could span a wide range of soil mass released during a triggering event. We present a rainfall-induced landslide-triggering model for steep catchments with surfaces represented as an assembly of hydrologically and mechanically interconnected soil columns. The abruptness of failure was captured by defining local strength thresholds for mechanical bonds linking soil and bedrock and adjacent columns, whereby a failure of a single bond may initiate a chain reaction of subsequent failures, culminating in local mass release (a landslide). The catchment-scale hydromechanical landslide-triggering model (CHLT) was applied to results from two event-based landslide inventories triggered by two rainfall events in 2002 and 2005 in two nearby catchments located in the Prealps in Switzerland. Rainfall radar data, surface elevation and vegetation maps, and a soil production model for soil depth distribution were used for hydromechanical modeling of failure patterns for the two rainfall events at spatial and temporal resolutions of 2.5 m and 0.02 h, respectively. The CHLT model enabled systematic evaluation of the effects of soil type, mechanical reinforcement (soil cohesion and lateral root strength), and initial soil water content on landslide characteristics. We compared various landslide metrics and spatial distribution of simulated landslides in subcatchments with observed inventory data. Model parameters were optimized for the short but intense rainfall event in 2002, and the calibrated model was then applied for the 2005 rainfall, yielding reasonable predictions of landslide events and volumes and statistically reproducing localized landslide patterns similar to inventory data. The model provides a means for identifying local hot spots and offers insights into the dynamics of locally resolved landslide hazards in mountainous regions.

  13. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

  14. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  15. Antiphasing Between Rainfall in Africa's Rift Valley and North America's Great Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broecker, Wallace S.; Pettet, Dorothy; Hajdas, Irena; Lin, Jo; Clark, Elizabeth

    1998-01-01

    The beginning of the Bolling-Allerod warm period is marked in Greenland ice by an abrupt rise in (Delta)O-18, an abrupt drop in dust rain, and an abrupt increase in atmospheric methane content. The surface waters in the Norwegian Sea underwent a simultaneous abrupt warming. At about this time, a major change in the pattern of global rainfall occurred. Lake Victoria (latitude 0deg), which prior to this time was dry, was rejuvenated. The Red Sea, which prior to this time was hypersaline, freshened. Lake Lahontan, which prior to this time had achieved its largest size, desiccated. Whereas the chronologic support for the abruptness of the hydrologic changes is firm only for the Red Sea, in keeping with evidence obtained well away from the nor-them Atlantic in the Santa Barbara basin and the Cariaco Trench, the onset and end of the millennial-duration climate events were globally abrupt. If so, the proposed linkage between the size of African closed basin lakes and insolation cycles must be reexamined.

  16. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

    PubMed

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-12-08

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

  17. Climate Events and Cycles During the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Eun Hee; Lee, Dae-Young; Park, Mi-Young

    2017-09-01

    During the last glacial-interglacial transition, there were multiple intense climatic events such as the Bølling-Allerød warming and Younger Dryas cooling. These events show abrupt and rapid climatic changes. In this study, the climate events and cycles during this interval are examined through wavelet analysis of Arctic and Antarctic ice-core 18O and tropical marine 14C records. The results show that periods of 1383-1402, 1029-1043, 726-736, 441-497 and 202-247 years are dominant in the Arctic region, whereas periods of 1480, 765, 518, 311, and 207 years are prominent in the Antarctic TALDICE. In addition, cycles of 1019, 515, and 209 years are distinct in the tropical region. Among these variations, the de Vries cycle of 202-209 years, correlated with variations in solar activity, was detected globally. In particular, this cycle shows a strong signal in the Antarctic between about 13,000 and 10,500 yr before present (BP). In contrast, the Eddy cycle of 1019-1043 years was prominent in Greenland and the tropical region, but was not detected in the Antarctic TALDICE records. Instead, these records showed that the Heinrich cycle of 1480 year was very strong and significant throughout the last glacial-interglacial interval.

  18. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  19. Supercritical flow characteristics at abrupt expansion structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Jia Jun; Puay, How Tion; Zakaria, Nor Azazi

    2017-10-01

    When dealing with the design of a hydraulic structure, lateral expansion is often necessary for flow emerging at high velocity served as a cross-sectional transition. If the abrupt expansion structure is made to diverge rapidly, it will cause the major part of the flow fail to follow the boundaries. If the transition is too gradual, it will result in a waste of structural material. A preliminary study on the flow structure near the expansion and its relationship with flow parameter is carried out in this study. A two-dimensional depth-averaged model is developed to simulate the supercritical flow at the abrupt expansion structure. Constrained Interpolation Profile (CIP) scheme (which is of third order accuracy) is adopted in the numerical model. Results show that the flow structure and flow characteristics at the abrupt expansion can be reproduced numerically. The validation of numerical result is done against analytical studies. The result from numerical simulation showed good agreement with the analytical solution.

  20. Ionospheric reaction on sudden stratospheric warming events in Russiás Asia region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya; Chernigovskaya, Marina

    2015-12-01

    The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was

  1. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework. © 2014 John Wiley

  2. Globally synchronous ice core volcanic tracers and abrupt cooling during the last glacial period

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bay, R.C.; Bramall, N.E.; Price, P.B.; Clow, G.D.; Hawley, R.L.; Udisti, R.; Castellano, E.

    2006-01-01

    We perform a Monte Carlo pattern recognition analysis of the coincidence between three regional volcanic histories from ice coring of Greenland and Antarctica over the period 2 to 45 ka, using SO4 anomalies in Greenland and East Antarctica determined by continuous core chemistry, together with West Antarctic volcanic ash layers determined by remote optical borehole logging and core assays. We find that the Antarctic record of volcanism correlates with Glacial abrupt climate change at a 95% to >99.8% (???3??) significance level and that volcanic depositions at the three locations match at levels exceeding 3??, likely indicating that many common horizons represent single eruptive events which dispersed material world wide. These globally coincident volcanics were associated with abrupt cooling, often simultaneous with onsets or sudden intensifications of millennial cold periods. The striking agreement between sites implies that the consistency of current timescales obtained by isotopic and glaciological dating methods is better than estimated. Copyright 2006 by the American Geogphysical Union.

  3. How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.

    2017-07-01

    The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

  4. Constraining the sources of CH4 emissions during past abrupt climate change using CH4 triple isotopes mass balance from the ice core records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyonisius, M.; Petrenko, V. V.; Smith, A. W.; Hmiel, B.; Beck, J.; Seth, B.; Bock, M.; Hua, Q.; Yang, B.; Harth, C. M.; Beaudette, R.; Lee, J.; Erhardt, T.; Schmitt, J.; Brook, E.; Weiss, R. F.; Fischer, H.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Methane (CH4) is the third most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after water vapor and CO2. Understanding how the natural CH4 budget has changed in response to changing climate in the past can provide insights on the sensitivity of the natural CH4 emissions to the current anthropogenic warming. CH4 isotopes (Δ14CH4, δ13C-CH4, and δD-CH4) from ice cores can be used to fingerprint the sources of CH4 increases in the past. We have successfully extracted 6 large volume (>1000kg) ice core samples from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica spanning the Oldest Dryas-Bølling transition ( 14.7ka) - the first abrupt warming and CH4 rise since the Last Glacial Maximum. Among the CH4 isotopes, our Δ 14CH4 data are unique in their ability to unambiguously distinguish between "old" CH4 sources (e.g. marine clathrate, geologic sources, old permafrost) and "modern" CH4 sources (e.g. tropical and boreal wetlands). Our Δ14CH4 data unambiguously rule out marine clathrate and old permafrost as the sources of the abrupt CH4 rise. Preliminary CH4 stable isotopes box modeling combined with interpolar CH4 concentration gradient from existing ice core records suggest that tropical wetlands were the dominant driver for the Oldest Dryas-Bølling CH4 rise.

  5. Lower-Stratospheric Control of the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martineau, Patrick; Chen, Gang; Son, Seok-Woo; Kim, Joowan

    2018-03-01

    The sensitivity of stratospheric polar vortex variability to the basic-state stratospheric temperature profile is investigated by performing a parameter sweep experiment with a dry dynamical core general circulation model where the equilibrium temperature profiles in the polar lower and upper stratosphere are systematically varied. It is found that stratospheric variability is more sensitive to the temperature distribution in the lower stratosphere than in the upper stratosphere. In particular, a cold lower stratosphere favors a strong time-mean polar vortex with a large daily variability, promoting frequent sudden stratospheric warming events in the model runs forced with both wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 topographies. This sensitivity is explained by the control exerted by the lower-stratospheric basic state onto fluxes of planetary-scale wave activity from the troposphere to the stratosphere, confirming that the lower stratosphere can act like a valve for the upward propagation of wave activity. It is further shown that with optimal model parameters, stratospheric polar vortex climatology and variability mimicking Southern and Northern Hemisphere conditions are obtained with both wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 topographies.

  6. Going, Going, Gone: Localizing Abrupt Offsets of Moving Objects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maus, Gerrit W.; Nijhawan, Romi

    2009-01-01

    When a moving object abruptly disappears, this profoundly influences its localization by the visual system. In Experiment 1, 2 aligned objects moved across the screen, and 1 of them abruptly disappeared. Observers reported seeing the objects misaligned at the time of the offset, with the continuing object leading. Experiment 2 showed that the…

  7. Altered cropping pattern and cultural continuation with declined prosperity following abrupt and extreme arid event at ~4,200 yrs BP: Evidence from an Indus archaeological site Khirsara, Gujarat, western India.

    PubMed

    Pokharia, Anil K; Agnihotri, Rajesh; Sharma, Shalini; Bajpai, Sunil; Nath, Jitendra; Kumaran, R N; Negi, Bipin Chandra

    2017-01-01

    Archaeological sites hold important clues to complex climate-human relationships of the past. Human settlements in the peripheral zone of Indus culture (Gujarat, western India) are of considerable importance in the assessment of past monsoon-human-subsistence-culture relationships and their survival thresholds against climatic stress exerted by abrupt changes. During the mature phase of Harappan culture between ~4,600-3,900yrsBP, the ~4,100±100yrsBP time slice is widely recognized as one of the major, abrupt arid-events imprinted innumerous well-dated palaeo records. However, the veracity of this dry event has not been established from any archaeological site representing the Indus (Harappan) culture, and issues concerning timing, changes in subsistence pattern, and the likely causes of eventual abandonment (collapse) continue to be debated. Here we show a significant change in crop-pattern (from barley-wheat based agriculture to 'drought-resistant' millet-based crops) at ~4,200 yrs BP, based on abundant macrobotanical remains and C isotopes of soil organic matter (δ13CSOM) in an archaeological site at Khirsara, in the Gujarat state of western India. The crop-change appears to be intentional and was likely used as an adaptation measure in response to deteriorated monsoonal conditions. The ceramic and architectural remains of the site indicate that habitation survived and continued after the ~4,200yrsBP dry climatic phase, but with declined economic prosperity. Switching to millet-based crops initially helped inhabitants to avoid immediate collapse due to climatic stresses, but continued aridity and altered cropping pattern led to a decline in prosperity levels of inhabitants and eventual abandonment of the site at the end of the mature Harappan phase.

  8. Thyroperoxidase and thyroglobulin antibodies in early pregnancy and placental abruption.

    PubMed

    Haddow, James E; McClain, Monica R; Palomaki, Glenn E; Neveux, Louis M; Lambert-Messerlian, Geralyn; Canick, Jacob A; Malone, Fergal D; Porter, T Flint; Nyberg, David A; Bernstein, Peter S; D'Alton, Mary E

    2011-02-01

    To estimate the relationship between thyroid antibodies and placental abruption. This cohort study assesses thyroperoxidase and thyroglobulin antibodies in relation to placental abruption among 10,062 women with singleton viable pregnancies (from the First and Second Trimester Risk of Aneuploidy [FaSTER] trial). A thyroperoxidase antibody cutoff of 50 international units/mL is used for comparison with published data from another cohort. Women with elevated thyroperoxidase antibody levels in the first and second trimesters have a higher rate of placental abruption than antibody-negative women. This relationship is less strong in the first trimester (1.51% compared with 0.83%; odds ratio [OR], 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-3.37) than in the second trimester (1.78% compared with 0.82%; OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.21-3.99). A similar, but weaker, relationship is present for thyroglobulin antibodies. Sixty-four of 782 thyroperoxidase antibody-positive pregnancies without abruption become negative by the second trimester; one pregnancy with abruption becomes antibody-positive. Odds ratios for pregnancies with both thyroperoxidase and thyroglobulin antibody elevations are also higher (first trimester: OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 0.91-4.86; second trimester: OR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.17-6.33). The present data confirm an association between thyroid antibody elevations and placental abruption described in a recent report. These findings, however, do not provide support for recommending routine testing for thyroid antibodies during pregnancy. II.

  9. Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

    2017-12-01

    Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

  10. Foreword: The dynamics of change in Alaska’s boreal forests: Resilience and vulnerability in response to climate warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F. Stuart; Ruess, Roger W.

    2016-01-01

    Long-term research by the Bonanza Creek (BNZ) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has documented natural patterns of interannual and successional variability of the boreal forest in interior Alaska against which we can detect changes in system behavior. Between 2004 and 2010 the BNZ LTER program focused on understanding the dynamics of change through studying the resilience and vulnerability of Alaska's boreal forest in response to climate warming. The overarching question in this endeavor has been “How are boreal ecosystems responding, both gradually and abruptly, to climate warming, and what new landscape patterns are emerging?”

  11. Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Ping; Wu, Ziyi; Sang, Yan-Fang; Gu, Haiting; Zhao, Yuxi; Singh, Vijay P.

    2018-05-01

    Abrupt changes are an important manifestation of hydrological variability. How to accurately detect the abrupt changes in hydrological time series and evaluate their significance is an important issue, but methods for dealing with them effectively are lacking. In this study, we propose an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic. The approach was based on an index of correlation coefficient calculated for the original time series and its abrupt change component. A bigger value of correlation coefficient reflects a higher significance level of abrupt change. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments verified the reliability of the proposed approach, and also indicated the great influence of statistical characteristics of time series on the significance level of abrupt change. The approach was derived from the relationship between correlation coefficient index and abrupt change, and can estimate and grade the significance levels of abrupt changes in hydrological time series. Application of the proposed approach to ten major watersheds in China showed that abrupt changes mainly occurred in five watersheds in northern China, which have arid or semi-arid climate and severe shortages of water resources. Runoff processes in northern China were more sensitive to precipitation change than those in southern China. Although annual precipitation and surface water resources amount (SWRA) exhibited a harmonious relationship in most watersheds, abrupt changes in the latter were more significant. Compared with abrupt changes in annual precipitation, human activities contributed much more to the abrupt changes in the corresponding SWRA, except for the Northwest Inland River watershed.

  12. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-01-01

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

  13. Pseudo-global warming controls on the intensity and morphology of extreme convective storm events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trapp, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day extreme convective storm events might be represented under future anthropogenic climate change. We adapt the "pseudo-global warming" (PGW) methodology employed by Lackmann (2013, 2015) and others, who have investigated flooding and tropical cyclone events under climate change. Here, we exploit coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM data contributed to the CMIP5 archive, and take the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990-1999 and subtract it from that simulated during May 2090-2099. Such 3D changes in temperature, humidity, geopotential height, and winds are added to synoptic/meso-scale analyses (NAM-ANL) of specific events, and this modified atmospheric state is then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control (CTRL) simulations facilitates assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in our CTRL simulations, the combined effects of increased CIN and decreased forcing under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of our ensemble members. Those members that had sufficient matching between the CIN and forcing tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than in the CTRL simulations, because of the relatively higher CAPE under PGW. And, the members with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such mesocyclonic rotation and attendant supercellular morphology were even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear.

  14. The effects of the Indo-Pacific warm pool on the stratosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Yanjie; Zhao, Sen; Zhang, Jiankai; Li, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays a key role in influencing East Asian climate, and even affects global-scale climate change. This study defines IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña events to represent the warm and cold phases of IPWP SST anomalies, respectively, and investigates the effects of these events on stratospheric circulation and temperature. Results from simulations forced by observed SST anomalies during IPWP Niño and Niña events show that the tropical lower stratosphere tends to cool during IPWP Niño events and warm during IPWP Niña events. The responses of the northern and southern polar vortices to IPWP Niño events are fairly symmetric, as both vortices are significantly warmed and weakened. However, the responses of the two polar vortices to IPWP Niña events are of opposite sign: the northern polar vortex is warmed and weakened, but the southern polar vortex is cooled and strengthened. These features are further confirmed by composite analysis using reanalysis data. A possible dynamical mechanism connecting IPWP SST to the stratosphere is suggested, in which IPWP Niño and Niña events excite teleconnections, one similar to the Pacific-North America pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a Rossby wave train in the Southern Hemisphere, which project onto the climatological wave in the mid-high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, affecting the polar vortex.

  15. The association between maternal smoking and placenta abruption: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Shobeiri, Fatemeh; Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra; Jenabi, Ensiyeh

    2017-08-01

    Several epidemiological studies have determined that maternal smoking can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, only a meta-analysis has been performed for assessing the relationship between smoking and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between smoking and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted in major databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to April 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed using Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were reported using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random effects model. The literature search yielded 1167 publications until April 2016 with 4 309 610 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was a significant association between smoking and placenta abruption (1.80; 95% CI: 1.75, 1.85). Based on the results of cohort studies, smoking and placenta abruption had a significant association (relative risk ratio: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.51, 1.80). Based on reports in epidemiological studies, we showed that smoking is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

  16. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Bryden, H L; Borghini, M; Ben Ismail, S

    2016-03-11

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected.

  17. Acute Effect of Whole-Body Vibration Warm-up on Footspeed Quickness.

    PubMed

    Donahue, Ryan B; Vingren, Jakob L; Duplanty, Anthony A; Levitt, Danielle E; Luk, Hui-Ying; Kraemer, William J

    2016-08-01

    Donahue, RB, Vingren, JL, Duplanty, AA, Levitt, DE, Luk, H-Y, and Kraemer, WJ. Acute effect of whole-body vibration warm-up on footspeed quickness. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2286-2291, 2016-The warm-up routine preceding a training or athletic event can affect the performance during that event. Whole-body vibration (WBV) can increase muscle performance, and thus the inclusion of WBV to the warm-up routine might provide additional performance improvements. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the acute effect of a WBV warm-up, using a vertical oscillating platform and a more traditional warm-up protocol on feet quickness in physically active men. Twenty healthy and physically active men (18-25 years, 22 ± 3 years, 176.8 ± 6.4 cm, 84.4 ± 11.5 kg, 10.8 ± 1.4% body fat) volunteered for this study. A 2 × 2 factorial design was used to examine the effect of 4 warm-up scenarios (no warm-up, traditional warm-up only, WBV warm-up only, and combined traditional and WBV warm-up) on subsequent 3-second Quick feet count test (QFT) performance. The traditional warm-up consisted of static and dynamic exercises and stretches. The WBV warm-up consisted of 60 seconds of vertical sinusoidal vibration at a frequency of 35 Hz and amplitude of 4 mm on a vibration platform. The WBV protocol significantly (p ≤ 0.0005, η = 0.581) augmented QFT performance (WBV: 37.1 ± 3.4 touches; no-WBV: 35.7 ± 3.4 touches). The results demonstrate that WBV can enhance the performance score on the QFT. The findings of this study suggest that WBV warm-up should be included in warm-up routines preceding training and athletic events which include very fast foot movements.

  18. Abrupt variations of Indian and East Asian summer monsoons during the last deglacial stadial and interstadial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Bing; Hong, Yetang; Uchida, Masao; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Cai, Cheng; Peng, Haijun; Zhu, Yongxuan; Wang, Yu; Yuan, Linggui

    2014-08-01

    The phase relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the last deglaciation remains controversial. Here, we reconstruct a 15,000-year plant cellulose δ13C proxy record for the ISM from the Yuexi peat bog in southwestern China. The record shows that the ISM abruptly decreases during the Younger Dryas (YD) stadial and abruptly increases during the Bølling-Allerød (BA) interstadial. A comparison of the Yuexi record with other related proxy climate records reveals two types of phenomena. First, the strengths of the two Asian monsoons are inversely related during the YD stadial, i.e., the ISM strength decreases and the EASM increases. During this period, the southern Chinese mainland consisted of a wide arid zone while the northern Chinese mainland was much wetter. The arid zone in southern China resulted from two different types of monsoon processes: the abnormal northward extension of the EASM rain belt, leading to less rainfall in southeast China, or an illusion that the EASM weakened. The other process is a real weakening of the ISM. Second, during the BA interstadial, the strengths of both the ISM and EASM clearly increased. However, the maximum strengths appear to have occurred in the Allerød period. During this period, the entire Chinese mainland, both northern and southern, experienced wet conditions. The abnormal climate pattern of wet in the north and dry in the south during the YD stadial occurs because of the combined effects of the strengthened EASM, intensified westerlies, and weakened ISM, which could be attributed to the response to the abrupt cooling in the high northern latitudes and to the El Niño-like activity in the equatorial Pacific. The widespread wet climate during the BA interstadial may be related to an abrupt increase in the greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations in the atmosphere and to the La Niña-like activity in the equatorial Pacific. These results contribute to a better

  19. Bayesian comparison of conceptual models of abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boers, Niklas; Ghil, Michael; Rousseau, Denis-Didier

    2017-04-01

    Records of oxygen isotope ratios and dust concentrations from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) provide accurate proxies for the evolution of Arctic temperature and atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period (12ka to 100ka b2k) [1]. The most distinctive feature of these records are sudden transitions, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, during which Arctic temperatures increased by up to 10 K within a few decades. These warming events are consistently followed by more gradual cooling in Antarctica [2]. The physical mechanisms responsible for these transitions and their out-of-phase relationship between the northern and southern hemisphere remain unclear. Substantial evidence hints at variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as a key mechanism [2,3], but also other mechanisms, such as variations of sea ice extent [4] or ice shelf coverage [5] may play an important role. Here, we intend to shed more light on the relevance of the different mechanisms suggested to explain the abrupt climate changes and their inter-hemispheric coupling. For this purpose, several conceptual differential equation models are developed that represent the suggested physical mechanisms. Optimal parameters for each model candidate are then determined via maximum likelihood estimation with respect to the observed paleoclimatic data. Our approach is thus semi-empirical: While a model's general form is deduced from physical arguments about relevant climatic mechanisms — oceanic and atmospheric — its specific parameters are obtained by training the model on observed data. The distinct model candidates are evaluated by comparing statistical properties of time series simulated with these models to the observed statistics. In particular, Bayesian model selection criteria like Maximum Likelihood Ratio tests are used to obtain a hierarchy of the different candidates in terms of their likelihood, given the observed oxygen isotope and dust time series

  20. Atmospheric pCO2 reconstructed across five early Eocene global warming events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Ying; Schubert, Brian A.

    2017-11-01

    Multiple short-lived global warming events, known as hyperthermals, occurred during the early Eocene (56-52 Ma). Five of these events - the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM or ETM1), H1 (or ETM2), H2, I1, and I2 - are marked by a carbon isotope excursion (CIE) within both marine and terrestrial sediments. The magnitude of CIE, which is a function of the amount and isotopic composition of carbon added to the ocean-atmosphere system, varies significantly between marine versus terrestrial substrates. Here we use the increase in carbon isotope fractionation by C3 land plants in response to increased pCO2 to reconcile this difference and reconstruct a range of background pCO2 and peak pCO2 for each CIE, provided two potential carbon sources: methane hydrate destabilization and permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation. Although the uncertainty on each pCO2 estimate using this approach is low (e.g., median uncertainty = + 23% / - 18%), this work highlights the potential for significant systematic bias in the pCO2 estimate resulting from sampling resolution, substrate type, diagenesis, and environmental change. Careful consideration of each of these factors is required especially when applying this approach to a single marine-terrestrial CIE pair. Given these limitations, we provide an upper estimate for background early Eocene pCO2 of 463 +248/-131 ppmv (methane hydrate scenario) to 806 +127/-104 ppmv (permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation scenario). These results, which represent the first pCO2 proxy estimates directly tied to the Eocene hyperthermals, demonstrate that early Eocene warmth was supported by background pCO2 less than ∼3.5× preindustrial levels and that pCO2 > 1000 ppmv may have occurred only briefly, during hyperthermal events.

  1. Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960 2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oguz, Temel; Gilbert, Denis

    2007-02-01

    Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960-2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic-anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events. The first shift, in 1973-1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the "cold climate regime" following its ˜20-year persistence in the "warm climate regime". The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the "high production" regime of phytoplankton to its background "low production" regime. The Black Sea regime

  2. Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

    2010-05-01

    Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

  3. The association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Ebrahimzadeh Zagami, Samira

    2017-11-01

    Some epidemiological studies have found that uterine leiomyoma can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, the meta-analysis has not been performed for assessing the relationship between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between uterine leiomyoma and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted out in major databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to October 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were showed using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. The literature search included 953 articles until October 2016 with 232,024 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was significant association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption (2.63; 95% CI: 1.38, 3.88). We showed based on reports in observational studies that uterine leiomyoma is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

  4. On the composite response of the MLT to major sudden stratospheric warming events with elevated stratopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limpasuvan, Varavut; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Chandran, Amal; Garcia, Rolando R.; Smith, Anne K.

    2016-05-01

    Based on a climate-chemistry model (constrained by reanalyses below ~50 km), the zonal-mean composite response of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to major sudden stratospheric warming events with elevated stratopauses demonstrates the role of planetary waves (PWs) in driving the mean circulation in the presence of gravity waves (GWs), helping the polar vortex recover and communicating the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) impact across the equator. With the SSW onset, strong westward PW drag appears above 80 km primarily from the dissipation of wave number 1 perturbations with westward period of 5-12 days, generated from below by the unstable westward polar stratospheric jet that develops as a result of the SSW. The filtering effect of this jet also allows eastward propagating GWs to saturate in the winter MLT, providing eastward drag that promotes winter polar mesospheric cooling. The dominant PW forcing translates to a net westward drag above the eastward mesospheric jet, which initiates downwelling over the winter pole. As the eastward polar stratospheric jet returns, this westward PW drag persists above 80 km and acts synergistically with the return of westward GW drag to drive a stronger polar downwelling that warms the pole adiabatically and helps reform the stratopause at an elevated altitude. With the polar wind reversal during the SSW onset, the westward drag by the quasi-stationary PW in the winter stratosphere drives an anomalous equatorial upwelling and cooling that enhance tropical stratospheric ozone. Along with equatorial wind anomalies, this ozone enhancement subsequently amplifies the migrating semidiurnal tide amplitude in the winter midlatitudes.

  5. An abrupt weakening of the subpolar gyre as trigger of Little Ice Age-type episodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Zanchettin, Davide; Lohmann, Katja; Jungclaus, Johann H.

    2017-02-01

    We investigate the mechanism of a decadal-scale weakening shift in the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) that is found in one among three last millennium simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth system model. The SPG shift triggers multicentennial anomalies in the North Atlantic climate driven by long-lasting internal feedbacks relating anomalous oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea ice extent, and upper-ocean salinity in the Labrador Sea. Yet changes throughout or after the shift are not associated with a persistent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The anomalous climate state of the North Atlantic simulated after the shift agrees well with climate reconstructions from within the area, which describe a transition between a stronger and weaker SPG during the relatively warm medieval climate and the cold Little Ice Age respectively. However, model and data differ in the timing of the onset. The simulated SPG shift is caused by a rapid increase in the freshwater export from the Arctic and associated freshening in the upper Labrador Sea. Such freshwater anomaly relates to prominent thickening of the Arctic sea ice, following the cluster of relatively small-magnitude volcanic eruptions by 1600 CE. Sensitivity experiments without volcanic forcing can nonetheless produce similar abrupt events; a necessary causal link between the volcanic cluster and the SPG shift can therefore be excluded. Instead, preconditioning by internal variability explains discrepancies in the timing between the simulated SPG shift and the reconstructed estimates for the Little Ice Age onset.

  6. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  7. An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

    PubMed

    Ananth, Cande V; Keyes, Katherine M; Hamilton, Ava; Gissler, Mika; Wu, Chunsen; Liu, Shiliang; Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Skjærven, Rolv; Williams, Michelle A; Tikkanen, Minna; Cnattingius, Sven

    2015-01-01

    Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries. Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10), Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11), Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10), Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08), Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09), Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10), and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12) were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries. Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000), Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01) and Sweden (P<0.01). There is a strong maternal age effect on abruption. While the abruption rate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

  8. Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands.

    PubMed

    Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Sardans, Jordi; Bartrons, Mireia; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D; Leblans, Niki I W; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-08-23

    Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris , a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris , a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2-8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region.

  9. Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris, a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris, a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2–8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region. PMID:28832555

  10. Altered cropping pattern and cultural continuation with declined prosperity following abrupt and extreme arid event at ~4,200 yrs BP: Evidence from an Indus archaeological site Khirsara, Gujarat, western India

    PubMed Central

    Pokharia, Anil K.; Sharma, Shalini; Bajpai, Sunil; Nath, Jitendra; Kumaran, R. N.; Negi, Bipin Chandra

    2017-01-01

    Archaeological sites hold important clues to complex climate-human relationships of the past. Human settlements in the peripheral zone of Indus culture (Gujarat, western India) are of considerable importance in the assessment of past monsoon-human-subsistence-culture relationships and their survival thresholds against climatic stress exerted by abrupt changes. During the mature phase of Harappan culture between ~4,600–3,900yrsBP, the ~4,100±100yrsBP time slice is widely recognized as one of the major, abrupt arid-events imprinted innumerous well-dated palaeo records. However, the veracity of this dry event has not been established from any archaeological site representing the Indus (Harappan) culture, and issues concerning timing, changes in subsistence pattern, and the likely causes of eventual abandonment (collapse) continue to be debated. Here we show a significant change in crop-pattern (from barley-wheat based agriculture to ‘drought-resistant’ millet-based crops) at ~4,200 yrs BP, based on abundant macrobotanical remains and C isotopes of soil organic matter (δ13CSOM) in an archaeological site at Khirsara, in the Gujarat state of western India. The crop-change appears to be intentional and was likely used as an adaptation measure in response to deteriorated monsoonal conditions. The ceramic and architectural remains of the site indicate that habitation survived and continued after the ~4,200yrsBP dry climatic phase, but with declined economic prosperity. Switching to millet-based crops initially helped inhabitants to avoid immediate collapse due to climatic stresses, but continued aridity and altered cropping pattern led to a decline in prosperity levels of inhabitants and eventual abandonment of the site at the end of the mature Harappan phase. PMID:28985232

  11. Phase Memory Preserving Harmonics from Abruptly Autofocusing Beams.

    PubMed

    Koulouklidis, Anastasios D; Papazoglou, Dimitris G; Fedorov, Vladimir Yu; Tzortzakis, Stelios

    2017-12-01

    We demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the harmonics from abruptly autofocusing ring-Airy beams present a surprising property: They preserve the phase distribution of the fundamental beam. Consequently, this "phase memory" imparts to the harmonics the abrupt autofocusing behavior, while, under certain conditions, their foci coincide in space with the one of the fundamental. Experiments agree well with our theoretical estimates and detailed numerical calculations. Our findings open the way for the use of such beams and their harmonics in strong field science.

  12. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  13. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

    2017-10-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

  14. First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

    2010-09-01

    Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

  15. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  16. The effect of abrupt climate changes and climate background conditions in Southern Europe during the last glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, Gregor; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Brauer, Achim; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2015-04-01

    The last glacial period is characterized by abrupt and large temperature shifts in Greenland and the North Atlantic realm. Pollen and sediment data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) have demonstrated a clear imprint of these fluctuations operating at millennial time-scales. Interestingly, basic mean environmental condition changes with respect to temperature and precipitation occurred during MIS4, separating warm and dry conditions during MIS5 from relatively cold and humid conditions within MIS3. This general climate background shift is superposed by distinct millennial-scale variability at MON. Using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model applying boundary conditions at 32 ka BP and pre-industrial conditions as a surrogate for MIS3 and MIS5, we have simulated and analysed characteristic changes in Southern Europe during the last glacial. We find that changes in the mean state at MON are mainly related to a partial shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) convection sites from the Nordic Seas to South of Iceland, the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and lower greenhouse gas concentrations. These background characteristics provide the basis for enhanced zonal moisture transport from the eastern North Atlantic to Middle and Southern Europe. Furthermore, simulations of abrupt climate change scenarios show that a deactivation of the convection sites South of Iceland during MIS3 leads to cooler and dryer conditions at MON. Such temperature and precipitation changes are thought to provide a counter-acting effect on woody vegetation and associated pollen signals at MON. This is in contrast to the impact of abrupt climate perturbation scenarios during MIS5, where no significant precipitation changes are detected. Hence, the simulated changes and underlying mechanisms are largely consistent with the recorded proxy evidence with respect to both, mean state and millennial-scale changes.

  17. Pink marine sediments reveal rapid ice melt and Arctic meltwater discharge during Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, Tine L; Thomsen, Erik

    2013-01-01

    The climate of the last glaciation was interrupted by numerous abrupt temperature fluctuations, referred to as Greenland interstadials and stadials. During warm interstadials the meridional overturning circulation was active transferring heat to the north, whereas during cold stadials the Nordic Seas were ice-covered and the overturning circulation was disrupted. Meltwater discharge, from ice sheets surrounding the Nordic Seas, is implicated as a cause of this ocean instability, yet very little is known regarding this proposed discharge during warmings. Here we show that, during warmings, pink clay from Devonian Red Beds is transported in suspension by meltwater from the surrounding ice sheet and replaces the greenish silt that is normally deposited on the north-western slope of Svalbard during interstadials. The magnitude of the outpourings is comparable to the size of the outbursts during the deglaciation. Decreasing concentrations of ice-rafted debris during the interstadials signify that the ice sheet retreats as the meltwater production increases.

  18. Correspondence between North Pacific Ocean ventilation, Cordilleran Ice Sheet variations, and North Atlantic Heinrich Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walczak, M. H.; Mix, A.; Fallon, S.; Praetorius, S. K.; Cowan, E. A.; Du, J.; Hobern, T.; Padman, J.; Fifield, L. K.; Stoner, J. S.; Haley, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Much remains unresolved concerning the origin and global implications of the episodes of rapid glacial failure in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich Events. Thought to occur during or at the termination of the coldest of the abrupt stadial climate events known as Dansgaard-Oschger cycles, various trigger mechanisms have been theorized, including external forcing in the form of oceanic or atmospheric warming, internal dynamics of the large Laurentide ice sheet, or the episodic failure of another (presumably European) ice sheet. Heinrich events may also be associated with a decrease in North Atlantic deep-water formation. New results from Gulf of Alaska IODP Expedition 341 reveal events of Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat (based on ice-rafted detritus and sedimentation rates) synchronous with reorganization of ocean circulation (based on benthic-planktic 14C pairs) spanning the past 45,000 years on an independent high-resolution radiocarbon-based chronology. We document the relationship between these Pacific records and the North Atlantic Heinrich events, and find the data show an early Pacific expression of ice sheet instability in the form of pulses of Cordilleran glacial discharge. The benthic radiocarbon anomalies in the Northeast Pacific contemporaneous with Cordilleran discharge events indicate a close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics throughout Marine Isotope Stage 2. These data are hard to reconcile with triggering in the North Atlantic or internal to the Laurentide ice sheet, requiring us to re-think both the mechanisms that generate Heinrich events and their far-field impacts.

  19. Tropical Intraseasonal Air-Sea Exchanges during the 1997 Pacific Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Chou, S.-H.; Wang, Zihou

    1999-01-01

    The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and associated westerly wind (WW) events account for much of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV). The TISV has been suggested as an important stochastic forcing that may be one of the underlying causes for the observed irregularities of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent observational studies and theories of interannual to interdecadal-scale variability suggest that ENSO may arise from different mechanisms depending on the basic states. The Pacific warming event of 1997, being associated with a period of strong MJO and WW events, serves as a natural experiment for studying the possible role of TISV in triggering an ENSO event. We have performed a combined statistical and composite analysis of surface WW events based on the assimilated surface wind and sea level pressure for the period of 1980-1993, the SSM/I wind for the period of 1988-1997, and OLR. Results indicates that extratropical forcing contribute significantly to the evolution of MJO and establishment of WW events over the Pacific warm pool. Following the major WW events, there appeared an eastward extension of equatorial warm SST anomalies from the western Pacific warm pool. Such tropical-extratropical interaction is particularly clear in the winter of 96-97 that leads to the recent warming event in 1997/98. From the above discussion, our current study on this subject is based on the hypothesis that 1) there is an enhanced air-sea interaction associated with TISV and the northerly surges from the extratropics in the initial phase of the 97/98 warming event, and 2) the relevant mechanisms are functions of the basic state of the coupled system (in terms of SST distribution and atmospheric mean circulation) that varies at the interannual and interdecadal time scale. We are analyzing the space-time structure of the northerly surges, their association with air-sea fluxes and upper ocean responses during the period of September 1996 to June 1997. The

  20. Heinrich Events as an integral part of glacial-interglacial climate dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barker, S.; Knorr, G.; Zhang, X.; Gong, X.; Lohmann, G.; Bazin, L.

    2017-12-01

    Since their discovery in the 1980s Heinrich Events have provided a playground for climate scientists trying to understand the interactions between ice sheets and the ocean. Subsequently it has become clear that these interactions extend to almost all parts of the global climate system, from temperature, winds and rainfall to deep ocean currents and atmospheric CO2. Furthermore it remains unclear as to whether these dramatic events are a cause or consequence (or both) of regional to global perturbations in a range of parameters, including meridional overturning circulation within the Atlantic. Here we will discuss some of these aspects to highlight ongoing and future research related to Heinrich events and abrupt change more generally. We will discuss some of the possible triggers for H-events, including abrupt versus more gradual forcing mechanisms and conversely the potential influence of such events on the wider climate system, including deglacial climate change.

  1. Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

    2017-10-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation

  2. Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2016-12-01

    The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

  3. Self-reported smoking habits and serum cotinine levels in women with placental abruption.

    PubMed

    Tikkanen, Minna; Surcel, Heljä-Marja; Bloigu, Aini; Nuutila, Mika; Ylikorkala, Olavi; Hiilesmaa, Vilho; Paavonen, Jorma

    2010-12-01

    smoking is an important risk factor for placental abruption with strong dose-dependency. Pregnant smokers often underreport tobacco use which can be objectively assessed by measuring serum cotinine levels. We examined the accuracy between self-reported smoking habits and early pregnancy serum cotinine levels in women with or without placental abruption. retrospective case-control study. university Hospital. a total of 175 women with placental abruption and 370 control women. serum samples collected during the first trimester were analyzed for serum cotinine levels. Cotinine concentration over 15 ng/ml was considered as the cutoff indicating active smoking. Smoking habits of the women and their partners were recorded at the same visit. placental abruption. of the cases of women with placental abruption, 27.4% reported smoking compared with 14.3% of the controls (p < 0.001). Based on serum cotinine levels, 30.3% of the case women and 17.6% of the control women were considered smokers (p = 0.003). Serum cotinine levels among smokers were higher in the abruption group than in the control group (median 229.5 ng/ml (interquartile range 169.8-418.1) vs. 153.5 ng/ml (56.6-241.4), p = 0.002). Self-reported number of cigarettes smoked daily correlated well with the cotinine levels (r = 0.68, p < 0.001). Of the women reporting as nonsmokers, approximately 7% were considered smokers based on cotinine testing. pregnant women with subsequent placental abruption are heavier smokers than pregnant control women. Self-reported smoking habits correlate well with serum cotinine levels in Finland. Therefore, self-reported smoking can be considered as a risk marker for placental abruption.

  4. A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and

  5. Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

    PubMed

    Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

    2016-11-01

    Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Finding Intervals of Abrupt Change in Earth Science Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, X.; Shekhar, S.; Liess, S.

    2011-12-01

    In earth science data (e.g., climate data), it is often observed that a persistently abrupt change in value occurs in a certain time-period or spatial interval. For example, abrupt climate change is defined as an unusually large shift of precipitation, temperature, etc, that occurs during a relatively short time period. A similar pattern can also be found in geographical space, representing a sharp transition of the environment (e.g., vegetation between different ecological zones). Identifying such intervals of change from earth science datasets is a crucial step for understanding and attributing the underlying phenomenon. However, inconsistencies in these noisy datasets can obstruct the major change trend, and more importantly can complicate the search of the beginning and end points of the interval of change. Also, the large volume of data makes it challenging to process the dataset reasonably fast. In earth science data (e.g., climate data), it is often observed that a persistently abrupt change in value occurs in a certain time-period or spatial interval. For example, abrupt climate change is defined as an unusually large shift of precipitation, temperature, etc, that occurs during a relatively short time period. A similar change pattern can also be found in geographical space, representing a sharp transition of the environment (e.g., vegetation between different ecological zones). Identifying such intervals of change from earth science datasets is a crucial step for understanding and attributing the underlying phenomenon. However, inconsistencies in these noisy datasets can obstruct the major change trend, and more importantly can complicate the search of the beginning and end points of the interval of change. Also, the large volume of data makes it challenging to process the dataset fast. In this work, we analyze earth science data using a novel, automated data mining approach to identify spatial/temporal intervals of persistent, abrupt change. We first

  7. Western Pacific Warm Pool expansion event during 2.0-1.5 Ma and its implications to global climate dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo, L.; Chuang, C. K.; Wei, K. Y.; Shen, C. C.; Mii, H. S.; Chang, Y. P.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we reconstruct surface and upper thermocline seawater temperatures by using planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina deutertrei in the southern Western Pacific Warm Pool (S-WPWP, ODP Site 1115B, 9o11'S, 151o34'E, water depth 1149 m) during past 2.2-1.1 million years (Ma). Significant S-WPWP surface warming in both glacial and interglacial periods during 1.86-1.55 Ma is accompanied with gradual upper thermocline cooling. S-WPWP sea surface temperature dropped 2.1oC from 1.50-1.21 Ma but upper thermocline temperature further decreased 1.1oC at this time period. WPWP expansion event is also supported by vertical foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived temperature profile records in the central WPWP (ODP Site 806, Ford et al. 2015). Although foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived temperature records from Eastern Equatorial Pacific suggests long-term cooling trend (Wara et al. 2005), alkenone undersaturation index (UK'37)-inferred surface temperature records suggest 1oC warming during 2.0-1.5 Ma (Fedorov et al. 2013). We argue that seasonal expansion of WPWP may be attributable to the meridional thermocline gradient increasing (Martinez-Garcia et al. 2010) during 2.0-1.5 Ma. Long-term extent variability of WPWP could have impact on cross-equatorial energy transportation and meridional precipitation belt movements (Lo et al., 2014).

  8. Evaluation of the tropospheric flows to a major Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming event using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with a PSU/NCAR nudging MM5V3 model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, K.

    2008-04-01

    Previous studies of the exceptional 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming event lead to some uncertainty, namely the question of whether excessive heat fluxes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are a symptom or cause of the 2002 SH warming event. In this work, we use a hemispheric version of the MM5 model with nudging capability and we devised a novel approach to separately test the significance of the stratosphere and troposphere for this year. We paired the flow conditions from 2002 in the stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, against the conditions in 1998 (a year with displaced polar vortex) and in 1948 (a year with strong polar vortex that coincided with the geographical South Pole). Our experiments show that the flow conditions from below determine the stratospheric flow features over the polar region. Regardless of the initial stratospheric conditions in 1998 or 1948, when we simulated these past stratospheres with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conditions constrained to 2002 levels, the simulated middle stratospheres resemble those observed in 2002 stratosphere over the polar region. On the other hand, when the 2002 stratosphere was integrated with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conductions constrained to 1948 and 1998, respectively, the simulated middle stratospheric conditions over the polar region shift toward those of 1948 and 1998. Thus, our experiments further support the wave-forcing theory as the cause of the 2002 SH warming event.

  9. Ionospheric response to the 2006 sudden stratospheric warming event over the equatorial and low latitudes in the Brazilian sector using GPS observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Jesus, R.; Batista, I. S.; Fagundes, P. R.; Venkatesh, K.; de Abreu, A. J.

    2017-02-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to study the response of the ionospheric F-region using GPS-TEC measurements at equatorial and low latitude regions over the Brazilian sector during an sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in the year 2006. In this work, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations derived from GPS network in Brazil. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was employed to check the periodicities of the ΔVTEC during the SSW event. The results show a strong decrease in VTEC and ΔVTEC values in the afternoon over low latitudes from DOY 05-39 (during the SSW event) mainly after the second SSW temperature peak. The ionospheric ΔVTEC pattern over Brazilian sector shows diurnal and semidiurnal oscillations during the 2006 SSW event. In addition, for the first time, variations in ΔVTEC (low latitude stations) with periods of about 02-08 day have been reported during an SSW event. Using GPS stations located in the Brazilian sector, it is reported for the first time that equatorial ionospheric irregularities were not suppressed by the SSW event.

  10. A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

    2014-05-01

    An important example of abrupt climate change occurred 8200 years ago in the North Atlantic and is generally known as the 8.2kyr event. This abrupt ~160 year cooling appears to coincide with the final drainage of the ice-dammed Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The resultant influx of meltwater to the North Atlantic is assumed to have perturbed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, reducing northward heat transport and causing widespread cooling. Numerous lines of evidence support this theory, with reconstructions showing changes in deep water formation, reductions in salinity and evidence of sea-level rise. Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations driven with realistic estimates of the meltwater flux show a regional cooling but fail to replicate the duration or the magnitude of this event in comparison with proxy archives. Meltwater injection was not the only rapid climate forcing in operation at this time. Drainage of the pro-glacial lakes would have had a profound effect on the boundary layer heat fluxes over North America, with potential teleconnections further afield. In this work we use an isotope-enabled version of the coupled GCM HadCM3 with boundary conditions appropriate for the time period of 9kyr (including ice sheets, greenhouse gases and orbital parameters). This model tracks oxygen isotopes throughout the hydrological cycle allowing more robust comparison with proxy archives. We analyse the impact of the removal of a lake area corresponding to Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at this time and present sensitivity tests designed to analyse the contributions from lake removal, orographic change and the assumed isotopic content of the pro-glacial lakes. The results show a distinct pattern of cooling across North America (in the annual mean) with an apparent teleconnection to the Barents Sea, where there is warming associated with sea-ice reduction. The isotopic implications depend on the initial isotopic content of the pro-glacial lake. Assuming

  11. Nighttime warming enhances drought resistance of plant communities in a temperate steppe

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Zhongling; Jiang, Lin; Su, Fanglong; Zhang, Qian; Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

    2016-01-01

    Drought events could have profound influence on plant community structure and ecosystem function, and have subsequent impacts on community stability, but we know little about how different climate warming scenarios affect community resistance and resilience to drought. Combining a daytime and nighttime warming experiment in the temperate steppe of north China with a natural drought event during the study period, we tested how daytime and nighttime warming influences drought resistance and resilience. Our results showed that the semi-arid steppe in north China was resistant to both daytime and nighttime warming, but vulnerable to drought. Nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, enhanced community resistance to drought via stimulating carbon sequestration, whereas neither daytime nor nighttime warming affected community resilience to drought. Large decline in plant community cover, primarily caused by the reduction in the cover of dominant and rare species rather than subordinate species during drought, did not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. These findings suggest that nighttime warming may facilitate ecosystem sustainability and highlight the need to assess the effects of climate extremes on ecosystem functions at finer temporal resolutions than based on diurnal mean temperature. PMID:26987482

  12. Nighttime warming enhances drought resistance of plant communities in a temperate steppe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Zhongling; Jiang, Lin; Su, Fanglong; Zhang, Qian; Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

    2016-03-01

    Drought events could have profound influence on plant community structure and ecosystem function, and have subsequent impacts on community stability, but we know little about how different climate warming scenarios affect community resistance and resilience to drought. Combining a daytime and nighttime warming experiment in the temperate steppe of north China with a natural drought event during the study period, we tested how daytime and nighttime warming influences drought resistance and resilience. Our results showed that the semi-arid steppe in north China was resistant to both daytime and nighttime warming, but vulnerable to drought. Nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, enhanced community resistance to drought via stimulating carbon sequestration, whereas neither daytime nor nighttime warming affected community resilience to drought. Large decline in plant community cover, primarily caused by the reduction in the cover of dominant and rare species rather than subordinate species during drought, did not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. These findings suggest that nighttime warming may facilitate ecosystem sustainability and highlight the need to assess the effects of climate extremes on ecosystem functions at finer temporal resolutions than based on diurnal mean temperature.

  13. Ultra-wideband horn antenna with abrupt radiator

    DOEpatents

    McEwan, Thomas E.

    1998-01-01

    An ultra-wideband horn antenna transmits and receives impulse waveforms for short-range radars and impulse time-of flight systems. The antenna reduces or eliminates various sources of close-in radar clutter, including pulse dispersion and ringing, sidelobe clutter, and feedline coupling into the antenna. Dispersion is minimized with an abrupt launch point radiator element; sidelobe and feedline coupling are minimized by recessing the radiator into a metallic horn. Low frequency cut-off associated with a horn is extended by configuring the radiator drive impedance to approach a short circuit at low frequencies. A tapered feed plate connects at one end to a feedline, and at the other end to a launcher plate which is mounted to an inside wall of the horn. The launcher plate and feed plate join at an abrupt edge which forms the single launch point of the antenna.

  14. Risk of fetal death associated with maternal drug dependence and placental abruption: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Sarah D; Vermeulen, Marian J; Ray, Joel G

    2007-07-01

    Substance use in pregnancy is associated with placental abruption, but the risk of fetal death independent of abruption remains undetermined. Our objective was to examine the effect of maternal drug dependence on placental abruption and on fetal death in association with abruption and independent of it. To examine placental abruption and fetal death, we performed a retrospective population-based study of 1 854 463 consecutive deliveries of liveborn and stillborn infants occurring between January 1, 1995 and March 31, 2001, using the Canadian Institute for Health Information Discharge Abstract Database. Maternal drug dependence was associated with a tripling of the risk of placental abruption in singleton pregnancies (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.6-3.7), but not in multiple gestations (adjusted OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.12-6.4). Maternal drug dependence was associated with an increased risk of fetal death independent of abruption (adjusted OR 1.6: 95% CI 1.1-2.2) in singleton pregnancies, but not in multiples. Risk of fetal death was increased with placental abruption in both singleton and multiple gestations, even after controlling for drug dependence (adjusted OR 11.4 in singleton pregnancy; 95% CI 10.6-12.2, and 3.4 in multiple pregnancy; 95% CI 2.4-4.9). Maternal drug use is associated with an increased risk of intrauterine fetal death independent of placental abruption. In singleton pregnancies, maternal drug dependence is associated with an increased risk of placental abruption.

  15. Anticipatory adjustments to abrupt changes of opposing forces.

    PubMed

    Rapp, Katrin; Heuer, Herbert

    2015-01-01

    Anticipatory adjustments to abrupt load changes are based on task-specific predictive information. The authors asked whether anticipatory adjustments to abrupt offsets of horizontal forces are related to expectancy. In two experiments participants held a position against an opposing force or moved against it. At force offset they had to stop rapidly. Duration of the opposing force or distance moved against it varied between blocks of trials and was constant within each block, or it varied from trial to trial. These two variations resulted in opposite changes of the expectancy of force offset with the passage of time or distance. With constant force durations or distances in each block of trials, anticipatory adjustments tended to be poorest with the longest duration or distance, but with variable force durations or distances they tended to be best with the longest duration or distance. Thus anticipatory adjustments were related to expectancy rather than time or distance per se. Anticipatory adjustments resulted in shorter peak amplitudes of the involuntary movements, accompanied by longer movement times in Experiment 1 and faster movement times in Experiment 2. Thus, for different states of the limb at abrupt dynamic changes anticipatory adjustments involve different mechanisms that modulate different mechanical characteristics.

  16. Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

    2015-12-01

    Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

  17. The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez Goñi, María Fernanda; Desprat, Stéphanie; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bassinot, Frank C.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, R. Scott; Behling, Hermann; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Burjachs, Francesc; Carrión, José S.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Clark, James S.; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Mustaphi, Colin. J. Courtney; Debusk, Georg H.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Finch, Jemma M.; Fletcher, William J.; Giardini, Marco; González, Catalina; Gosling, William D.; Grigg, Laurie D.; Grimm, Eric C.; Hayashi, Ryoma; Helmens, Karin; Heusser, Linda E.; Hill, Trevor; Hope, Geoffrey; Huntley, Brian; Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Jacobs, Bonnie; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kawai, Sayuri; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kumon, Fujio; Lawson, Ian T.; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liew, Ping Mei; Magri, Donatella; Marchant, Robert; Margari, Vasiliki; Mayle, Francis E.; Merna McKenzie, G.; Moss, Patrick; Müller, Stefanie; Müller, Ulrich C.; Naughton, Filipa; Newnham, Rewi M.; Oba, Tadamichi; Pérez-Obiol, Ramón; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Roucoux, Katy H.; Rucina, Stephen M.; Scott, Louis; Takahara, Hikaru; Tzedakis, Polichronis C.; Urrego, Dunia H.; van Geel, Bas; Valencia, B. Guido; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Vincens, Annie; Whitlock, Cathy L.; Willard, Debra A.; Yamamoto, Masanobu

    2017-09-01

    Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

  18. Abrupt release of terrigenous organic carbon to the Laptev Sea at termination of the Younger Dryas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesi, T.; Muschitiello, F.; Smittenberg, R.; Jakobsson, M.; Vonk, J.; Hill, P.; Dudarev, O.; Semiletov, I. P.; Kirchner, N.; Noormets, R.; Andersson, A.; Gustafsson, O.

    2015-12-01

    Based on analysis of a piston core collected in 2014 from the Lena River paleo delta, now Laptev Sea, we show that rapid and massive organic carbon (OC) deposition took place into the marine system at the termination of the Younger Dryas when the Arctic region experienced a large and extremely fast climate change. The highly laminated strata with absence of bioturbation further confirm the rapid event-driven emplacement of this deposit which was largely dominated by terrigenous OC as indicated by depleted δ13C values and high concentrations of terrestrial fossil biomarkers (lignin phenols and cutin-derived products). Moreover, the hydrogen isotopic composition (δ2H) of HMW n-alkanes indicates that this terrestrially-derived translocated OC was produced in the watershed during a relatively cold period. The OC appears to be a few thousand years old at time of deposition (ca. 4-5000 radiocarbon years; reservoir age corrected), consistent with the radiocarbon age of pre-aged OC currently supplied by the Lena river. Altogether our results indicate that fast climate warming exerts first-order control on large-scale carbon redistribution. Because the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition occurred within a few decades, we infer that the abrupt and large release of terrigenous OC was essentially driven by rapid changes in the permafrost stability (i.e., thermal collapse/thawing) and increase in precipitation over the Siberian watershed. Interestingly, only surface and sub-surface carbon pools (i.e., active layer) were remobilized while deep and old sources (radiocarbon dead) did not seem to have substantially contributed to the total land-to-ocean flux during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition.

  19. Species selection under long-term experimental warming and drought explained by climatic distributions.

    PubMed

    Liu, Daijun; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Estiarte, Marc; Tielbörger, Katja; Slowik, Fabian; Yang, Xiaohong; Bilton, Mark C

    2018-03-01

    Global warming and reduced precipitation may trigger large-scale species losses and vegetation shifts in ecosystems around the world. However, currently lacking are practical ways to quantify the sensitivity of species and community composition to these often-confounded climatic forces. Here we conducted long-term (16 yr) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and reduced precipitation (-20% soil moisture) experiments in a Mediterranean shrubland. Climatic niche groups (CNGs) - species ranked or classified by similar temperature or precipitation distributions - informatively described community responses under experimental manipulations. Under warming, CNGs revealed that only those species distributed in cooler regions decreased. Correspondingly, under reduced precipitation, a U-shaped treatment effect observed in the total community was the result of an abrupt decrease in wet-distributed species, followed by a delayed increase in dry-distributed species. Notably, while partially correlated, CNG explanations of community response were stronger for their respective climate parameter, suggesting some species possess specific adaptations to either warming or drought that may lead to independent selection to the two climatic variables. Our findings indicate that when climatic distributions are combined with experiments, the resulting incorporation of local plant evolutionary strategies and their changing dynamics over time leads to predictable and informative shifts in community structure under independent climate change scenarios. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  20. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

  1. Ultra-wideband horn antenna with abrupt radiator

    DOEpatents

    McEwan, T.E.

    1998-05-19

    An ultra-wideband horn antenna transmits and receives impulse waveforms for short-range radars and impulse time-of flight systems. The antenna reduces or eliminates various sources of close-in radar clutter, including pulse dispersion and ringing, sidelobe clutter, and feedline coupling into the antenna. Dispersion is minimized with an abrupt launch point radiator element; sidelobe and feedline coupling are minimized by recessing the radiator into a metallic horn. Low frequency cut-off associated with a horn is extended by configuring the radiator drive impedance to approach a short circuit at low frequencies. A tapered feed plate connects at one end to a feedline, and at the other end to a launcher plate which is mounted to an inside wall of the horn. The launcher plate and feed plate join at an abrupt edge which forms the single launch point of the antenna. 8 figs.

  2. Abruptness of Cascade Failures in Power Grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into ``super-grids''.

  3. Abruptness of cascade failures in power grids.

    PubMed

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-15

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into "super-grids".

  4. Warm Arctic-cold Siberia: comparing the recent and the early 20th-century Arctic warmings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Zolina, Olga

    2018-02-01

    The Warm Arctic-cold Siberia surface temperature pattern during recent boreal winter is suggested to be triggered by the ongoing decrease of Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and has been observed together with an increase in mid-latitude extreme events and a meridionalization of tropospheric circulation. However, the exact mechanism behind this dipole temperature pattern is still under debate, since model experiments with reduced sea ice show conflicting results. We use the early twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) as a case study to investigate the link between September sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) and the Siberian temperature evolution. Analyzing a variety of long-term climate reanalyses, we find that the overall winter temperature and heat flux trend occurs with the reduction of September BKS sea ice. Tropospheric conditions show a strengthened atmospheric blocking over the BKS, strengthening the advection of cold air from the Arctic to central Siberia on its eastern flank, together with a reduction of warm air advection by the westerlies. This setup is valid for both the ETCAW and the current Arctic warming period.

  5. [Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China during 1960-2014].

    PubMed

    Ma, Qi Yun; Zhang, Ji Quan; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Feng; Dong, Zhen Hua; A, Lu Si

    2017-06-18

    Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy-sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P) and warm spell duration (WSDI) representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Meanwhile, frost days (FD0), cold days (TX10P), cold nights (TN10P) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI) were clearly greater than those of warm indices (SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI), and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RX5D, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial difference between the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

  6. Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.

    PubMed

    Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A

    2014-03-01

    Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).

  7. Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic

    1992-01-01

    Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

  8. Abrupt Change of the Transboundary Runoff and Its Influence on Water Security of Lanstang-Mekong River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sang, Y. F.; Xie, P.; Ziyi, W.; Jiangyan, Z.; Qianjin, D.; Xu, L.

    2017-12-01

    As a significant manifestation of hydrological variability, abrupt change will obviously impact on the water security. To analyze what does the variation bring under changing environment, abrupt change detection should be a basic task, as well as variation level evaluation and hydrological frequency analysis. However, there lacks an effective method to reach those purposes systematically. Here we derived correlation coefficient between the original series and the jump-component series which is related to the difference degree of mean value before and after the abrupt change. Based on it, we proposed the moving-correlation-coefficient-based detection method and evaluated the significance of abrupt change as different levels related to the value of correlation coefficient. Then, with the obtained results, we calculated hydrological frequency in different situation (before and after the abrupt change). The approach above was employed to investigate the transboundary runoff of Lanstang-Mekong River at some kinds of time scale. We obtained the abrupt changes from runoff series of year, flood season and dry season which are almost the same. All the abrupt changes were significant which could reach to the moderate level. Compared with the past situation (before the abrupt change), the hydrological frequency in the current situation (after the abrupt change) indicated the water security of the water supply and flood control in the lower reaches of Lanstang-Mekong River could be guaranteed better, which is owed to the construction and operation of the water conservancy projects on the upper Lanstang-Mekong River.

  9. Morphology of ionospheric F2 region variability associated with sudden stratospheric warmings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Sumedha; Upadhayaya, A. K.

    2017-07-01

    The effect of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on the F2 region ionosphere has been extensively analyzed for the major event of year 2009, apart from a few reports on other major and minor events. Morphology of ionospheric responses during SSW can be better comprehended by analyzing such warming events under different solar, geomagnetic, and meteorological conditions. We investigate the features of F2 region variability following the SSW events of 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, using ionosonde data from the Asian region covering a broad latitudinal range from 26.6°N to 45.1°N. We find perceptible ionospheric variations in electron densities during these warming events which is accompanied by a large variation of 117% within enhancements, as compared to a meagre variation of 11% within depressions, during these events. We also examine 6 months data at these latitudes and longitudes and find that the maximum and minimum variations in F2 layer critical frequency are observed during each SSW period. The influence of quasi-stationary 16 day planetary waves is seen during these SSW events. Further, a recently proposed parameter "SSW integrated strength" by Vieira et al. (2017) to characterize SSW event with respect to ionosphere is also examined. It is seen that it does not fit well for these seven SSW events at these latitudes and longitudes.

  10. The nummulithoclast event within the Lower Eocene in the Southern Tethyan margin: Mechanisms involved, analogy with the filament event and climate implication (Kairouan, Central Tunisia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mardassi, Besma

    2017-10-01

    Early Eocene deposits in Tunisia are marked by clear variations in terms of facies and thickness. Each facies corresponds to an appropriate depositional environment. Shallow water deposits pass gradually offshore into deeper carbonates along a homoclinal ramp. In Central Tunisia, detailed investigation of carbonate facies under transmitted light shows a particular richness of the middle part of Early Eocene deposits in nummulithoclasts. These facies are often frequent within corrugated banks. They are overlaying Globigerina rich well-bedded limestones and overlain by nummulites and Discocyclina rich massively-bedded carbonates. Nummulithoclasts occurrence is recorded on field by an abrupt vertical change from autochthonous thinly-bedded limestones to massively-bedded fossiliferous carbonates. Change concerns structures, textures and limestones' composition. Nummulithoclasts are associated either to planktonic micro-organisms or to benthic fauna and phosphates grains. The middle and the upper parts of the Early Eocene deposits, particularly, fossilize hummocky cross-stratifications and megaripples. Their presence advocates the role of energetic currents in sweeping nummulites from lower circatidal to upper bathyal environments. The absence of a slope break helped the settling of reworked nummulites within deeper environments. The abrupt change, nummulithoclast associations and current structures arouse reflection and make them not reliable to characterize depositional environments. However, their preferential occurrence within the middle part of Early Eocene deposits and the tight linkage with storm activity lead them to be considered as event. The large scale hummocks recorded on field suggests that nummulite fragmentation was triggered by tropical cyclones rather than humble storms. The frequent occurrence of cyclones which correspond to low pressure atmospheric systems seems in relation with a global warming enhancing the sea surface temperature.

  11. Global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-06-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

  12. The INTIMATE event stratigraphy of the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olander Rasmussen, Sune; Svensson, Anders

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic INTIMATE (INtegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) group has previously recommended an Event Stratigraphy approach for the synchronisation of records of the Last Termination using the Greenland ice core records as the regional stratotypes. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition of numbered Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the past glacial period as the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. Using a recent synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice cores that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale, we here present an extension of the GS/GI stratigraphic template to the entire glacial period. In addition to the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice core records more than two decades ago, a number of short-lived climatic oscillations have been identified in the three synchronized records. Some of these events have been observed in other studies, but we here propose a consistent scheme for discriminating and naming all the significant climatic events of the last glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice cores. In addition to presenting the updated event stratigraphy, we make a series of recommendations on how to refer to these periods in a way that promotes unambiguous comparison and correlation between different proxy records, providing a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations. The work presented is a part of a newly published paper in an INTIMATE special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews: Rasmussen et al., 'A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event

  13. Abruptness of Cascade Failures in Power Grids

    PubMed Central

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into “super-grids”. PMID:24424239

  14. Is cold or warm blood cardioplegia superior for myocardial protection?

    PubMed Central

    Abah, Udo; Roberts, Patrick Garfjeld; Ishaq, Muhammad; De Silva, Ravi

    2012-01-01

    A best evidence topic in cardiac surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was whether the use of warm or cold blood cardioplegia has superior myocardial protection. More than 192 papers were found using the reported search, of which 20 represented the best evidence to answer the clinical question. The authors, journal, date, country of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes and results of these papers are tabulated. A good breadth of high-level evidence addressing this clinical dilemma is available, including a recent meta-analysis and multiple large randomized clinical trials. Yet despite this level of evidence, no clear significant clinical benefit has been demonstrated by warm or cold blood cardioplegia. This suggests that neither method is significantly superior and that both provide similar efficacy of myocardial protection. The meta-analysis, including 41 randomized control trials (5879 patients in total), concluded that although a lower cardiac enzyme release and improved postoperative cardiac index was demonstrated in the warm cardioplegia group, this benefit was not reflected in clinical outcomes, which were similar in both groups. This theme of benefit in biochemical markers, physiological metrics and non-fatal postoperative events in the warm cardioplegia group ran throughout the literature, in particular the ‘Warm Heart investigators’ who conducted a randomized trial of 1732 patients, demonstrated a reduction in postoperative low output syndrome (6.1 versus 9.3%, P = 0.01) in the warm cardioplegia group, but no significant drop in 30-day all-cause mortality (1.4 versus 2.5%, P = 0.12). However, their later follow-up indicates non-fatal postoperative events predict reduced late survival, independent of cardioplegia. A minority of studies suggested a benefit of cold cardioplegia over warm in particular patient subgroups: One group conducted a retrospective study of 520 patients who

  15. The impact of economic austerity and prosperity events on suicide in Greece: a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis

    PubMed Central

    Branas, Charles C; Kastanaki, Anastasia E; Michalodimitrakis, Manolis; Tzougas, John; Kranioti, Elena F; Theodorakis, Pavlos N; Carr, Brendan G; Wiebe, Douglas J

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To complete a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis of the impact of austerity-related and prosperity-related events on the occurrence of suicide across Greece. Setting Greece from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 2012. Participants A total of 11 505 suicides, 9079 by men and 2426 by women, occurring in Greece over the study period. Primary and secondary outcomes National data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority assembled as 360 monthly counts of: all suicides, male suicides, female suicides and all suicides plus potentially misclassified suicides. Results In 30 years, the highest months of suicide in Greece occurred in 2012. The passage of new austerity measures in June 2011 marked the beginning of significant, abrupt and sustained increases in total suicides (+35.7%, p<0.001) and male suicides (+18.5%, p<0.01). Sensitivity analyses that figured in undercounting of suicides also found a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in June 2011 (+20.5%, p<0.001). Suicides by men in Greece also underwent a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in October 2008 when the Greek recession began (+13.1%, p<0.01), and an abrupt but temporary increase in April 2012 following a public suicide committed in response to austerity conditions (+29.7%, p<0.05). Suicides by women in Greece also underwent an abrupt and sustained increase in May 2011 following austerity-related events (+35.8%, p<0.05). One prosperity-related event, the January 2002 launch of the Euro in Greece, marked an abrupt but temporary decrease in male suicides (−27.1%, p<0.05). Conclusions This is the first multidecade, national analysis of suicide in Greece using monthly data. Select austerity-related events in Greece corresponded to statistically significant increases for suicides overall, as well as for suicides among men and women. The consideration of future austerity measures should give greater weight to the unintended mental health consequences that may follow and the public

  16. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  17. Maternal sleep duration and complaints of vital exhaustion during pregnancy is associated with placental abruption.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Chunfang; Sanchez, Sixto E; Gelaye, Bizu; Enquobahrie, Daniel A; Ananth, Cande V; Williams, Michelle A

    2015-02-01

    Sleep disorders are associated with cardiovascular complications and preterm delivery (PTD). Insufficient sleep results in metabolic alterations and increased inflammation, both known to contribute to placental abruption (abruption), a determinant of PTD. We examined associations of abruption with sleep duration and complaints of vital exhaustion. The study included 164 abruption cases and 160 controls in a multicenter study in Peru. Data on habitual sleep duration and vital exhaustion during the first 6 months of pregnancy were elicited during interviews conducted following delivery. Women were categorized according to short, normal and long sleep duration (≤6, 7-8 and ≥9 h); and frequency of feeling exhausted. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Short and long sleep durations were associated with increased odds of abruption. The ORs of abruption in relation to short (≤6 h) and long (≥9 h) sleep duration were 2.0 (95% CI 1.1-3.7) and 2.1 (95% CI 1.1-4.1), compared with normal sleep duration (7-8 h). Complaints of vital exhaustion were also associated with abruption (OR = 2.37; 95% CI 1.46-3.85), and were independent of sleep duration. We extend the existing literature and support the thesis that maternal sleep habits and disorders should be assessed among pregnant women.

  18. Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.

    2013-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

  19. Response of equatorial and low latitude mesosphere lower thermospheric dynamics to the northern hemispheric sudden stratospheric warming events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koushik, N.; Kumar, Karanam Kishore; Ramkumar, Geetha; Subrahmanyam, K. V.

    2018-04-01

    The changes in zonal mean circulation and meridional temperature gradient brought about by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events in polar middle atmosphere are found to significantly affect the low latitude counterparts. Several studies have revealed the signatures of SSW events in the low latitude Mesosphere- Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region. Using meteor wind radar observations, the present study investigates the response of semidiurnal oscillations and quasi 2-day waves in the MLT region, simultaneously over low latitude and equatorial stations Thumba (8.5oN, 76.5oE) and Kototabang (0.2oS, 100oE). Unlike many case studies, the present analysis examines the response of low and equatorial latitude MLT region to typical polar stratospheric conditions viz., Quiet winter, Major SSW winter and Minor SSW winter. The present results show that (i) the amplitudes of semidiurnal oscillations and quasi 2-day waves in the equatorial and low latitude MLT region enhance in association with major SSW events, (ii) the semidiurnal oscillations show significant enhancement selectively in the zonal and meridional components over the Northern Hemispheric low latitude and the equatorial stations, respectively (iii) The minor SSW event of January 2012 resulted in anomalously large amplitudes of quasi 2- day waves without any notable increase in the amplitude of semidiurnal oscillations. The significance of the present study lies in comprehensively bringing out the signatures of SSW events in the semidiurnal oscillations and quasi 2-day waves in low latitude and equatorial MLT region, simultaneously for the first time over these latitudes.

  20. Chromium Isotope Anomaly Scaling with Past Warming Episodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remmelzwaal, S.; O'Connor, L.; Preston, W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Schmidt, D. N.

    2017-12-01

    The recent expansion of oxygen minimum zones caused by anthropogenic global warming raises questions about the scale of this expansion with different emission scenarios. Ocean deoxygenation will impact marine ecosystems and fisheries demanding an assessment of the possible extent and intensity of deoxygenation. Here, we used past climate warming events to quantify a potential link between warming and the spread of oxygen minimum zones: including Ocean Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, OAE 2 in the Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. We applied the emerging proxy of chromium isotopes in planktic foraminifera to assess redox changes during the PETM, ETM2, and Pleistocene and bulk carbonate for the OAEs. Both δ53Cr and chromium concentrations respond markedly during the PETM indicative of a reduction in dissolved oxygen concentrations caused by changes in ocean ventilation and associated warming [1]. A strong correlation between Δδ53Cr and benthic Δδ18O, a measure of the excursion size in both oxygen and chromium isotopes, suggest temperatures to be one of the main drivers of ocean deoxygenation in the past [1]. Chromium concentrations decrease during ETM2 and OAE1a, and, increase by 4.5 ppm over the Plenus Cold Event during OAE2, which suggests enhanced seafloor ventilation. [1] Remmelzwaal, S.R.C., Dixon, S., Parkinson, I.J., Schmidt, D.N., Monteiro, F.M., Sexton, P., Fehr, M., Peacock, C., Donnadieu, Y., James, R.H., in review. Ocean deoxygenation during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. EPSL.

  1. Identification of unusual events in multi-channel bridge monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omenzetter, Piotr; Brownjohn, James Mark William; Moyo, Pilate

    2004-03-01

    Continuously operating instrumented structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are becoming a practical alternative to replace visual inspection for assessment of condition and soundness of civil infrastructure such as bridges. However, converting large amounts of data from an SHM system into usable information is a great challenge to which special signal processing techniques must be applied. This study is devoted to identification of abrupt, anomalous and potentially onerous events in the time histories of static, hourly sampled strains recorded by a multi-sensor SHM system installed in a major bridge structure and operating continuously for a long time. Such events may result, among other causes, from sudden settlement of foundation, ground movement, excessive traffic load or failure of post-tensioning cables. A method of outlier detection in multivariate data has been applied to the problem of finding and localising sudden events in the strain data. For sharp discrimination of abrupt strain changes from slowly varying ones wavelet transform has been used. The proposed method has been successfully tested using known events recorded during construction of the bridge, and later effectively used for detection of anomalous post-construction events.

  2. Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, A.; Dobson, A.; McElduff, P.; Salomaa, V.; Kuulasmaa, K.; Sans, S.; t for

    2005-01-01

    Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35–64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days. PMID:15965137

  3. [Reversible catatonia after the abrupt discontinuation of clozapine: Case report].

    PubMed

    Jaafari, M; Bout, A; Rammouz, I; Aalouane, R

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we report the case of a patient, aged 26, with schizophrenia who was admitted to psychiatric emergencies for catatonia, one week after abrupt discontinuation of clozapine. An improvement was seen after only two days of the reintroduction of clozapine alone. This catatonia is reversible and it responds magnificently to the reintroduction of clozapine. And we conclude that patients and their caregivers need to be educated about the effects of abrupt cessation of clozapine administration. Copyright © 2016 L’Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

    2017-06-01

    To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

  5. Constraining the trigger for an ancient warming episode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-08-01

    The Paleocene epoch (˜66-56 million years ago) was sandwiched between sudden climate shifts and mass extinctions. The boundary between the end of the Paleocene and the beginning of the Eocene (the P-E boundary) saw the global average temperature soar by 5°C over a few thousand years, leading to a pronounced reorganization of both terrestrial and oceanic plant and animal communities. The P-E boundary warming was triggered by an influx of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the influx's ultimate trigger is still being debated. Other prominent warming events within the Paleogene (˜66-23 million years ago), the broad time span that encompasses the Paleocene and Eocene, have been linked to regularly recurring changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit that take place on 100,000- and 405,000-year cycles. Proponents of this view suggest that an alignment of the two cycles could lead to the warming of deep ocean waters, melting frozen methane and triggering an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, some studies have suggested that the P-E boundary warming was instead the product of geological processes, where carbon-rich rocks were baked by injected magma, which eventually liberated the carbon to the atmosphere. Deciding between proposed explanations for the cause of the P-E warming, whether they are astronomical or geological, depends on accurately pinning the event in time. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, doi:10.1029/2010GC003426, 2011)

  6. Behavioral buffering of global warming in a cold-adapted lizard.

    PubMed

    Ortega, Zaida; Mencía, Abraham; Pérez-Mellado, Valentín

    2016-07-01

    Alpine lizards living in restricted areas might be particularly sensitive to climate change. We studied thermal biology of Iberolacerta cyreni in high mountains of central Spain. Our results suggest that I. cyreni is a cold-adapted thermal specialist and an effective thermoregulator. Among ectotherms, thermal specialists are more threatened by global warming than generalists. Alpine lizards have no chance to disperse to new suitable habitats. In addition, physiological plasticity is unlikely to keep pace with the expected rates of environmental warming. Thus, lizards might rely on their behavior in order to deal with ongoing climate warming. Plasticity of thermoregulatory behavior has been proposed to buffer the rise of environmental temperatures. Therefore, we studied the change in body and environmental temperatures, as well as their relationships, for I. cyreni between the 1980s and 2012. Air temperatures have increased more than 3.5°C and substrate temperatures have increased by 6°C in the habitat of I. cyreni over the last 25 years. However, body temperatures of lizards have increased less than 2°C in the same period, and the linear relationship between body and environmental temperatures remains similar. These results show that alpine lizards are buffering the potential impact of the increase in their environmental temperatures, most probably by means of their behavior. Body temperatures of I. cyreni are still cold enough to avoid any drop in fitness. Nonetheless, if warming continues, behavioral buffering might eventually become useless, as it would imply spending too much time in shelter, losing feeding, and mating opportunities. Eventually, if body temperature exceeds the thermal optimum in the near future, fitness would decrease abruptly.

  7. Abrupt aridities in the Levant-Sahel linked with solar activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, M.; Kushnir, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Observations of 19th and 20th century precipitation in the Dead Sea watershed region display a multidecadal, anti-phase relationship to North Atlantic (NAtl) sea surface temperature (SST) variability, such that when the NAtl is relatively cold, Jerusalem experiences higher than normal precipitation and vice versa. This association is underlined by a negative correlation to precipitation in the sub-Saharan Sahel and a positive correlation to precipitation in western North America, areas that are also affected by multidecadal NAtl SST variability. These observations are consistent with broad range of Holocene hydroclimatic fluctuations from the epochal, to the millennial and centennial time scales, as displayed by the Dead Sea and Sahelian lake levels and by direct and indirect proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. On the epochal time scale, the gradual cooling of NAtl SSTs throughout the Holocene in response to precession-driven reduction of summer insolation is associated with previously well-studied wet-to-dry transition in the Sahel and with a general increase in Dead Sea lake levels from low stands after the Younger Dryas to higher stands in the mid- to late-Holocene. On the millennial and centennial time scales there is also evidence for an antiphase relationship between Holocene variations in the Dead Sea and Sahelian lake levels and with proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. However, the records are punctuated by abrupt lake-level drops and extensive expansion of the desert belt at ~8.1, 5.7, 3.3 and 1.4 ka cal BP, which appear to be in-phase and which occur during previously documented abrupt major cooling events in the Northern Hemisphere. We link these cooling to solar activity variations that were identified in the North Atlantic IRD and cosmogenic isotopes records.

  8. Global Warming And Meltwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bratu, S.

    2012-04-01

    glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Meltwater is the water released by the melting of snow or ice, including glacial ice and ice shelves in the oceans. Meltwater is often found in the ablation zone of glaciers, where the rate of snow cover is reduced. In a report published in June 2007, the United Nations Environment Program estimated that global warming could lead to 40% of the world's population being affected by the loss of glaciers, snow and the associated meltwater in Asia. This is one of many activities of the physics laboratory that the students of our high school are involved in.

  9. Surviving Coral Bleaching Events: Porites Growth Anomalies on the Great Barrier Reef

    PubMed Central

    Cantin, Neal E.; Lough, Janice M.

    2014-01-01

    Mass coral bleaching affected large parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in 1998 and 2002. In this study, we assessed if signatures of these major thermal stress events were recorded in the growth characteristics of massive Porites colonies. In 2005 a suite of short (<50 cm) cores were collected from apparently healthy, surviving Porites colonies, from reefs in the central GBR (18–19°S) that have documented observations of widespread bleaching. Sites included inshore (Nelly Bay, Pandora Reef), annually affected by freshwater flood events, midshelf (Rib Reef), only occasionally affected by freshwater floods and offshore (Myrmidon Reef) locations primarily exposed to open ocean conditions. Annual growth characteristics (extension, density and calcification) were measured in 144 cores from 79 coral colonies and analysed over the common 24-year period, 1980–2003. Visual examination of the annual density bands revealed growth hiatuses associated with the bleaching years in the form of abrupt decreases in annual linear extension rates, high density stress bands and partial mortality. The 1998 mass-bleaching event reduced Porites calcification by 13 and 18% on the two inshore locations for 4 years, followed by recovery to baseline calcification rates in 2002. Evidence of partial mortality was apparent in 10% of the offshore colonies in 2002; however no significant effects of the bleaching events were evident in the calcification rates at the mid shelf and offshore sites. These results highlight the spatial variation of mass bleaching events and that all reef locations within the GBR were not equally stressed by the 1998 and 2002 mass bleaching events, as some models tend to suggest, which enabled recovery of calcification on the GBR within 4 years. The dynamics in annual calcification rates and recovery displayed here should be used to improve model outputs that project how coral calcification will respond to ongoing warming of the tropical oceans. PMID:24586377

  10. Surviving coral bleaching events: porites growth anomalies on the Great Barrier Reef.

    PubMed

    Cantin, Neal E; Lough, Janice M

    2014-01-01

    Mass coral bleaching affected large parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in 1998 and 2002. In this study, we assessed if signatures of these major thermal stress events were recorded in the growth characteristics of massive Porites colonies. In 2005 a suite of short (<50 cm) cores were collected from apparently healthy, surviving Porites colonies, from reefs in the central GBR (18-19°S) that have documented observations of widespread bleaching. Sites included inshore (Nelly Bay, Pandora Reef), annually affected by freshwater flood events, midshelf (Rib Reef), only occasionally affected by freshwater floods and offshore (Myrmidon Reef) locations primarily exposed to open ocean conditions. Annual growth characteristics (extension, density and calcification) were measured in 144 cores from 79 coral colonies and analysed over the common 24-year period, 1980-2003. Visual examination of the annual density bands revealed growth hiatuses associated with the bleaching years in the form of abrupt decreases in annual linear extension rates, high density stress bands and partial mortality. The 1998 mass-bleaching event reduced Porites calcification by 13 and 18% on the two inshore locations for 4 years, followed by recovery to baseline calcification rates in 2002. Evidence of partial mortality was apparent in 10% of the offshore colonies in 2002; however no significant effects of the bleaching events were evident in the calcification rates at the mid shelf and offshore sites. These results highlight the spatial variation of mass bleaching events and that all reef locations within the GBR were not equally stressed by the 1998 and 2002 mass bleaching events, as some models tend to suggest, which enabled recovery of calcification on the GBR within 4 years. The dynamics in annual calcification rates and recovery displayed here should be used to improve model outputs that project how coral calcification will respond to ongoing warming of the tropical oceans.

  11. Placental abruption possibly due to parvovirus B19 infection.

    PubMed

    Kawabe, Ayaka; Takai, Yasushi; Tamaru, Jun-Ichi; Samejima, Kouki; Seki, Hiroyuki

    2016-01-01

    There is concern about the development of anemia-associated fetal hydrops associated with maternal parvovirus B19 infection. Parvovirus B19 infection occurs via the globoside (P antigen) receptor, the main glycolipid of erythroid cells, which induces apoptosis. Similar findings have been reported for the P antigen of globoside-containing placental trophoblast cells. A 32-year-old woman was infected with human parvovirus B19 at week 32 of pregnancy, and had severe anemia at week 34. At week 37, an emergency cesarean section was performed because of sudden abdominal pain and fetal bradycardia; placental abruption was found. A live male infant was delivered with no sign of fetal hydrops or fetal infection. Placental tissue was positive for parvovirus B19 according to polymerase chain reaction. Immunohistochemical analysis using caspase-related M30 CytoDEATH monoclonal antibody revealed M30 staining of the placental villous trophoblasts. Placental trophoblasts and erythroid precursor cells have been reported to express globoside (P antigen), which is necessary for parvovirus B19 infectivity, and to show apoptotic activity as a result of infection. Placentas from three other pregnancies with documented abruption showed no M30 staining. The present case strongly suggests an association between placental abruption and apoptosis resulting from parvovirus B19 infection.

  12. Polar UVI observations of dayside auroral transient events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vorobjev, V. G.; Yagodkina, O. I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Liou, K.; Meng, C.-I.

    2001-12-01

    We analyze Polar Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) observations of auroral transient events (ATEs) in the dayside Northern Hemisphere. During 5 winter months in 1996 and 1997, we found 31 prenoon ATEs but only 13 afternoon events. Prenoon and afternoon event characteristics differ. Prenoon ATEs generally appear as bright spots of auroral luminosity in the area from 0800 to 1000 magnetic local time (MLT) and 74.5° and 76.5° corrected geomagnetic latitude (CGL). Bright aurorae then quickly expand westward and poleward, accompanied by high-latitude magnetic impulsive events (MIE) and traveling convection vortices (TCV). Afternoon ATEs usually appear as a sudden intensification of aurorae in the area from 1400 to 1600 MLT and 75.5° to 78.5° CGL. Within 15-20 min the bright band of luminosity extends eastward to reach 2000-2100 MLT at 70°-72° CGL. Although midlatitude and low-latitude ground magnetograms in the evening sector record increases in the horizontal component of the magnetic field, no corresponding features occur at stations in the morning sector. Afternoon ATEs correspond to abrupt changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation, but not to significant variations of the solar wind dynamic pressure, indicating that the auroral transient events occur as part of the magnetospheric response to abrupt changes in the foreshock geometry.

  13. Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

    2016-03-01

    Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

  14. Is Europa's Subsurface Water Ocean Warm?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melosh, H. J.; Ekholm, A. G.; Showman, A. P.; Lorenz, R. D.

    2002-01-01

    Europa's subsurface water ocean may be warm: that is, at the temperature of water's maximum density. This provides a natural explanation of chaos melt-through events and leads to a correct estimate of the age of its surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  15. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection

    PubMed Central

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

    2016-01-01

    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013. PMID:27051997

  16. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

    PubMed

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

    2016-04-07

    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

  17. Exploring the Human Ecology of the Younger Dryas Extraterrestrial Impact Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennett, D. J.; Erlandson, J. M.; Braje, T. J.; Culleton, B. J.

    2007-05-01

    Several lines of evidence now exist for a major extraterrestrial impact event in North America at 12.9 ka (the YDB). This impact partially destabilized the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets, triggered abrupt Younger Dryas cooling and extensive wildfires, and contributed to megafaunal extinction. This event also occurred soon after the well established colonization of the Americas by anatomically modern humans. Confirmation of this event would represent the first near-time extraterrestrial impact with significant effects on human populations. These likely included widespread, abrupt human mortality, population displacement, migration into less effected or newly established habitats, loss of cultural traditions, and resource diversification in the face of the massive megafaunal extinction and population reductions in surviving animal populations. Ultimately, these transformations established the context for the special character of plant and animal domestication and the emergence of agricultural economies in North America. We explore the Late Pleistocene archaeological record in North America within the context of documented major biotic changes associated with the YDB in North America and of the massive ecological affects hypothesized for this event.

  18. Abrupt global events in the Earth's history: a physics perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryskin, Gregory

    2010-12-01

    The timeline of the Earth's history reveals quasi-periodicity of the geological record over the last 542 Myr, on timescales close, in the order of magnitude, to 1 Myr. What is the origin of this quasi-periodicity? What is the nature of the global events that define the boundaries of the geological time scale? I propose that a single mechanism is responsible for all three types of such events: mass extinctions, geomagnetic polarity reversals, and sea-level fluctuations. The mechanism is fast, and involves a significant energy release. The mechanism is unlikely to have astronomical causes, both because of the energies involved and because it acts quasi-periodically. It must then be sought within the Earth itself. And it must be capable of reversing the Earth's magnetic field. The last requirement makes it incompatible with the consensus model of the origin of the geomagnetic field—the hydromagnetic dynamo operating in the Earth's fluid core. In the second part of the paper, I show that a vast amount of seemingly unconnected geophysical and geological data can be understood in a unified way if the source of the Earth's main magnetic field is a ~200 km thick lithosphere, repeatedly magnetized as a result of methane-driven oceanic eruptions, which produce ocean flow capable of dynamo action. The eruptions are driven by the interplay of buoyancy forces and exsolution of dissolved gas, which accumulates in the oceanic water masses prone to stagnation and anoxia. Polarity reversals, mass extinctions and sequence boundaries are consequences of these eruptions. Unlike the consensus model of geomagnetism, this scenario is consistent with the paleomagnetic data showing that 'directional changes during a reversal can be astonishingly fast, possibly occurring as a nearly instantaneous jump from one inclined dipolar state to another in the opposite hemisphere'.

  19. Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

    DOE PAGES

    Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong; ...

    2017-07-10

    Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

  20. Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong

    Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

  1. Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates.

    PubMed

    Wiederholt, Ruscena; Post, Eric

    2010-04-23

    Many primate species are severely threatened, but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Niño events on primate populations. Here, we document the influences of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical, large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Niño events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore, frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics, and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates.

  2. Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot.

    PubMed

    Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani

    2016-06-01

    An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone ( Haliotis roei ) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops ( Amusium balloti ), king ( Penaeus latisulcatus ) and tiger ( P. esculentus ) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.

  3. Towards Greenland Glaciation: Cumulative or Abrupt Transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, N.; Ramstein, G.; Contoux, C.; Ladant, J. B.; Dumas, C.; Donnadieu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The insolation evolution [Laskar 2004] from 4 to 2.5 Ma depicts a series of three summer solstice insolation minima between 2.7 and 2.6 Ma, but there are other more important summer solstice minima notably around 3.82 and 3.05 Ma. On such a time span of more than 1 Ma, data shows that there are variations in the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration with a local maximum around 3 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011], before a decrease between 3 and 2.6 Ma. The latter, suggesting an abrupt ice sheet inception around 2.7 Ma, has been shown to be a major culprit for the full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2014, in review] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, with surviving ice during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process in the first place, which could further lead to full glaciation at 2.7 Ma. Through a new tri-dimensional interpolation method implemented within the asynchronous coupling between an atmosphere ocean general circulation model (IPSL-CM5A) and an ice sheet model (GRISLI), we investigate the transient evolution of Greenland ice sheet during the Pliocene to diagnose whether the ice sheet inception is an abrupt event or rather a cumulative process, involving waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. ReferencesBartoli, G., Hönisch, B., & Zeebe, R. E. (2011). Atmospheric CO2 decline during the Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations. Paleoceanography, 26(4). Contoux C, Dumas C, Ramstein G, Jost A, Dolan A. M. (2014) Modelling Greenland Ice sheet inception and sustainability during the late Pliocene. (in review for Earth and Planetary Science Letters.).Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., & Levrard, B. (2004). A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 428

  4. Detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willsky, A. S.

    1984-01-01

    Some of the basic ideas associated with the detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems are presented. Multiple filter-based techniques and residual-based method and the multiple model and generalized likelihood ratio methods are considered. Issues such as the effect of unknown onset time on algorithm complexity and structure and robustness to model uncertainty are discussed.

  5. Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Johannes; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

    2018-05-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.

  6. Fall season atypically warm weather event leads to substantial CH4 loss in Arctic ecosystems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zona, Donatella; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Losacco, Salvatore; Murphy, Patrick; Oechel, Walter

    2014-05-01

    In the last century (during 1875-2008) high-latitudes are warming at a rate of 1.360C century-1, almost 2 times faster than the Northern Hemisphere trend (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This warming has been more intense outside of the summer season, with anomalies of 1.09, 1.59, 1.730C in the fall, winter, and spring season respectively (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This substantial temperature anomalies have the potential to increase the emission of greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems. In particular, CH4 emissions, which are primarily controlled by temperature (in addition to water table), can steeply increase with warming. Despite the potential relevance of CH4 emissions, very few measurements have been performed outside of the growing season across the entire Arctic, due to logistic constrains. Importantly, no flux measurements achieved a temporal and spatial data coverage sufficient to estimate with confidence an annual CH4 emissions from tundra ecosystem in Alaska, and its sensitivity to warming. Fall 2013 was unusually warm in central and northern Alaska. Following a relatively warm summer with dramatically above-average rainfall, the October mean monthly temperatures was the 4th and top warmest in Barrow (1949-2013) and Ivotuk (1998-2013), respectively. As we just upgraded several eddy covariance towers to measure CO2 and CH4 fluxes year-round, the atypical weather conditions of fall 2013 represented a unique chance for testing the sensitivity of CH4 loss to these atypically warm temperatures. All our sites across a latitudinal gradient (from the northern site, Barrow, to the southern site, Ivotuk), presented substantial CH4 loss in the fall. Importantly, in two of these sites (Barrow, Ivotuk) where the fall weather was substantially warmer than the long term trend, fall CH4 emission represented between 44-63% of the June-November cumulative emission. Surprisingly, in the southernmost site (Ivotuk), when the temperature anomaly was the

  7. Abrupt Changes in Bottom Water Benthic Foraminiferal Assemblages during Heinrich Events 1-4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazar, K.; Rashid, H.; Vermooten, M.; Mingqiu, D.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which Heinrich iceberg-rafting events modify bottom water ecology resulting in changes in benthic foraminifera is poorly known. Here, we report centennial to millennial scale changes in the benthic foraminiferal assemblages from sediment core Pa96018-06 (47.75oN; 46.21oW). It was collected on the northern slope of the Flemish Pass of southern Labrador Sea and is bathed by Labrador Sea Water, one of the major components of the meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages were determined and numerous species identified. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) on the bulk sediments and iceberg-rafted detritus (IRD) in addition to oxygen isotopes on polar planktonic foraminiferal Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) were used to identify the detrital carbonate-rich Heinrich iceberg-rafting events 1 to 4. Changes in the total numbers of Elphidium excavatum subsp. clavatum typically mirror changes in the total benthic population, yet the percentage of E. e. clavatum as part of the total sample increases through time. E. e. clavatum comprises approximately 60% of the benthic assemblage in H4, and steadily increases to 80% of the assemblage in H1 and H2. Total benthic foraminiferal numbers increase at the onset of each Heinrich event, with the two largest peaks in the entire record characterizing H2 and H3. In addition, the fine-scale feature in H1 suggests an initial decrease in the % E. e. clavatum (and total benthics) which then increased to 85% of the assemblage during the latter part of H1. Our data suggest that harsh living conditions prevailed during the initial phases of Heinrich events when the availability of meltwater and the deposition of fine-grained carbonate sediments were dominant. However, it appears that the ecology was favorable for E. e. clavatum during the latter phase of Heinrich events when the deposition of fine-grained sediments dissipated and the supply of meltwater was limited. These latter stages

  8. The impact of economic austerity and prosperity events on suicide in Greece: a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis.

    PubMed

    Branas, Charles C; Kastanaki, Anastasia E; Michalodimitrakis, Manolis; Tzougas, John; Kranioti, Elena F; Theodorakis, Pavlos N; Carr, Brendan G; Wiebe, Douglas J

    2015-02-02

    To complete a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis of the impact of austerity-related and prosperity-related events on the occurrence of suicide across Greece. Greece from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 2012. A total of 11 505 suicides, 9079 by men and 2426 by women, occurring in Greece over the study period. National data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority assembled as 360 monthly counts of: all suicides, male suicides, female suicides and all suicides plus potentially misclassified suicides. In 30 years, the highest months of suicide in Greece occurred in 2012. The passage of new austerity measures in June 2011 marked the beginning of significant, abrupt and sustained increases in total suicides (+35.7%, p<0.001) and male suicides (+18.5%, p<0.01). Sensitivity analyses that figured in undercounting of suicides also found a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in June 2011 (+20.5%, p<0.001). Suicides by men in Greece also underwent a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in October 2008 when the Greek recession began (+13.1%, p<0.01), and an abrupt but temporary increase in April 2012 following a public suicide committed in response to austerity conditions (+29.7%, p<0.05). Suicides by women in Greece also underwent an abrupt and sustained increase in May 2011 following austerity-related events (+35.8%, p<0.05). One prosperity-related event, the January 2002 launch of the Euro in Greece, marked an abrupt but temporary decrease in male suicides (-27.1%, p<0.05). This is the first multidecade, national analysis of suicide in Greece using monthly data. Select austerity-related events in Greece corresponded to statistically significant increases for suicides overall, as well as for suicides among men and women. The consideration of future austerity measures should give greater weight to the unintended mental health consequences that may follow and the public messaging of these policies and related events. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group

  9. Acute diabetes insipidus mediated by vasopressinase after placental abruption.

    PubMed

    Wallia, Amisha; Bizhanova, Aigerim; Huang, Wenyu; Goldsmith, Susan L; Gossett, Dana R; Kopp, Peter

    2013-03-01

    Postpartum, diabetes insipidus (DI) can be part of Sheehan's syndrome or lymphocytic hypophysitis in combination with anterior pituitary hormone deficiencies. In contrast, acute onset of isolated DI in the postpartum period is unusual. This patient presented at 33 weeks gestation with placental abruption, prompting a cesarean delivery of twins. Immediately after delivery, she developed severe DI. The DI could be controlled with the vasopressinase-resistant 1-deamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin (DDAVP), but not with arginine vasopressin (AVP), and it resolved within a few weeks. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that the postpartum DI in this patient was caused by the release of placental vasopressinase into the maternal bloodstream. Cells were transiently transfected with the AVP receptor 2 (AVPR2) and treated with either AVP or DDAVP in the presence of the patient's serum collected postpartum or 10 weeks after delivery. The response to the different treatments was evaluated by measuring the activity of a cAMP-responsive firefly luciferase reporter construct. The in vitro studies demonstrate that the patient's postpartum serum disrupts activation of the AVPR2 by AVP, but not by the vasopressinase-resistant DDAVP. Placental abruption can rarely be associated with acute postpartum DI caused by release of placental vasopressinase into the bloodstream. This clinical entity must be considered in patients with placental abruption and when evaluating patients presenting with DI after delivery.

  10. Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Q.

    2016-12-01

    Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

  11. Attributing extreme precipitation in the Black Sea region to sea surface warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun; Chernokulsky, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warm and moisten the overlying atmosphere, increasing the low-level atmospheric instability, the moisture available to precipitating systems and, hence, the potential for intense convective systems. Both the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions have seen a steady increase in summertime SSTs since the early 1980s, by over 2 K in places. This raises the question of how this SST increase has affected convective precipitation extremes in the region, and through which mechanisms any effects are manifested. In particular, the Black Sea town of Krymsk suffered an unprecedented precipitation extreme in July 2012, which may have been influenced by Black Sea warming, causing over 170 deaths. To address this question, we adopt two distinct modelling approaches to event attribution and compare their relative merits. In the first, we use the traditional probabilistic event attribution approach involving global climate model ensembles representative of the present and a counterfactual past climate where regional SSTs have not increased. In the second, we use the conditional event attribution approach, taking the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme as a showcase example. Under the second approach, we carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments of the Krymsk event at convection-permitting resolution with the WRF regional model, and test the sensitivity of the event to a range of SST forcings. Both experiments show the crucial role of recent Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme. In the conditional event attribution approach, though, the explicit simulation of convective processes provides detailed insight into the physical mechanisms behind the extremeness of the event, revealing the dominant role of dynamical (i.e. static stability and vertical motions) over thermodynamical (i.e. increased atmospheric moisture) changes. Additionally, the wide range of SST states tested in the regional setup, which would be

  12. Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change.

    PubMed

    Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon

    2016-12-13

    The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

  13. Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon

    2016-12-01

    The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

  14. Warm season heavy rainfall events over the Huaihe River Valley and their linkage with wintertime thermal condition of the tropical oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Pengfei; Liu, Yimin

    2016-01-01

    Warm season heavy rainfall events over the Huaihe River Valley (HRV) of China are amongst the top causes of agriculture and economic loss in this region. Thus, there is a pressing need for accurate seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall events. This study improves the seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall by implementing a novel rainfall framework, which overcomes the limitation of traditional probability models and advances the statistical inference on HRV heavy rainfall events. The framework is built on a three-cluster Normal mixture model, whose distribution parameters are sampled using Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The three rainfall clusters reflect probability behaviors of light, moderate, and heavy rainfall, respectively. Our analysis indicates that heavy rainfall events make the largest contribution to the total amount of seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, the interannual variation of summer precipitation is attributable to the variation of heavy rainfall frequency over the HRV. The heavy rainfall frequency, in turn, is influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the north Indian Ocean, equatorial western Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic. The tropical SSTAs modulate the HRV heavy rainfall events by influencing atmospheric circulation favorable for the onset and maintenance of heavy rainfall events. Occurring 5 months prior to the summer season, these tropical SSTAs provide potential sources of prediction skill for heavy rainfall events over the HRV. Using these preceding SSTA signals, we show that the support vector machine algorithm can predict HRV heavy rainfall satisfactorily. The improved prediction skill has important implication for the nation's disaster early warning system.

  15. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  16. Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor's law

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Zhang, B.; Cohen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    Taylor's power law describes an empirical relationship between the mean and variance of population densities in field data, in which the variance varies as a power, b, of the mean. Most studies report values of b varying between 1 and 2. However, Cohen (2014a) showed recently that smooth changes in environmental conditions in a model can lead to an abrupt, infinite change in b. To understand what factors can influence the occurrence of an abrupt change in b, we used both mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo samples from a model in which populations of the same species settled on patches, and each population followed independently a stochastic linear birth-and-death process. We investigated how the power relationship responds to a smooth change of population growth rate, under different sampling strategies, initial population density, and population age. We showed analytically that, if the initial populations differ only in density, and samples are taken from all patches after the same time period following a major invasion event, Taylor's law holds with exponent b=1, regardless of the population growth rate. If samples are taken at different times from patches that have the same initial population densities, we calculate an abrupt shift of b, as predicted by Cohen (2014a). The loss of linearity between log variance and log mean is a leading indicator of the abrupt shift. If both initial population densities and population ages vary among patches, estimates of b lie between 1 and 2, as in most empirical studies. But the value of b declines to ~1 as the system approaches a critical point. Our results can inform empirical studies that might be designed to demonstrate an abrupt shift in Taylor's law.

  17. Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet

    PubMed Central

    Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.

    2017-01-01

    The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827

  18. Recommended Experimental Procedures for Evaluation of Abrupt Wing Stall Characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Capone, F. J.; Hall, R. M.; Owens, D. B.; Lamar, J. E.; McMillin, S. N.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the experimental program under the Abrupt Wing Stall (AWS) Program. Candidate figures of merit from conventional static tunnel tests are summarized and correlated with data obtained in unique free-to-roll tests. Where possible, free-to-roll results are also correlated with flight data. Based on extensive studies of static experimental figures of merit in the Abrupt Wing Stall Program for four different aircraft configurations, no one specific figure of merit consistently flagged a warning of potential lateral activity when actual activity was seen to occur in the free-to-roll experiments. However, these studies pointed out the importance of measuring and recording the root mean square signals of the force balance.

  19. Collaborative Project: Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu, Zhengyu

    One of the most important validations for a state-of-art Earth System Model (ESM) with respect to climate changes is the simulation of the climate evolution and abrupt climate change events in the Earth’s history of the last 21,000 years. However, one great challenge for model validation is that ESMs usually do not directly simulate geochemical variables that can be compared directly with past proxy records. In this proposal, we have met this challenge by developing the simulation capability of major isotopes in a state-of-art ESM, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling us to make direct model-data comparison by comparingmore » the model directly against proxy climate records. Our isotope-enabled ESM incorporates the capability of simulating key isotopes and geotracers, notably δ 18O, δD, δ 14C, and δ 13C, Nd and Pa/Th. The isotope-enabled ESM have been used to perform some simulations for the last 21000 years. The direct comparison of these simulations with proxy records has shed light on the mechanisms of important climate change events.« less

  20. Acquisition of an Underway CTD System for the Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography DRI

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    Acquisition of an Underway CTD System for the Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography DRI T. M. Shaun Johnston Scripps Institution of Oceanography...westward flow in the North Equatorial Current (NEC) encounters tall, steep, submarine topography and islands. During the Flow Encountering Abrupt... Topography (FLEAT) DRI, investigators will determine: • Whether appreciable energy/momentum is lost from the large-scale NEC flow to smaller scales and

  1. Abrupt stop of deep water turnover with lake warming: Drastic consequences for algal primary producers.

    PubMed

    Yankova, Yana; Neuenschwander, Stefan; Köster, Oliver; Posch, Thomas

    2017-10-23

    After strong fertilization in the 20 th century, many deep lakes in Central Europe are again nutrient poor due to long-lasting restoration (re-oligotrophication). In line with reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loadings, total organismic productivity decreased and lakes have now historically low nutrient and biomass concentrations. This caused speculations that restoration was overdone and intended fertilizations are needed to ensure ecological functionality. Here we show that recent re-oligotrophication processes indeed accelerated, however caused by lake warming. Rising air temperatures strengthen thermal stabilization of water columns which prevents thorough turnover (holomixis). Reduced mixis impedes down-welling of oxygen rich epilimnetic (surface) and up-welling of phosphorus and nitrogen rich hypolimnetic (deep) water. However, nutrient inputs are essential for algal spring blooms acting as boost for annual food web successions. We show that repeated lack (since 1977) and complete stop (since 2013) of holomixis caused drastic epilimnetic phosphorus depletions and an absence of phytoplankton spring blooms in Lake Zurich (Switzerland). By simulating holomixis in experiments, we could induce significant vernal algal blooms, confirming that there would be sufficient hypolimnetic phosphorus which presently accumulates due to reduced export. Thus, intended fertilizations are highly questionable, as hypolimnetic nutrients will become available during future natural or artificial turnovers.

  2. Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

    2016-12-01

    The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

  3. Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

    2018-05-01

    Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

  4. Recent climate extremes associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Chris; Hoell, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Here we analyze empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of observations and a 30 member ensemble of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, and suggest that precipitation declines in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and the northern Middle East/Southwestern Asia (NME/SWE: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, Saudi Arabia north of 25°N, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon) may be interpreted as an interaction between La Niña-like decadal variability and the West Pacific Warming Mode (WPWM). While they exhibit different SST patterns, warming of the Pacific cold tongue (ENSO) and warming of the western Pacific (WPWM) produce similar warm pool diabatic forcing, Walker circulation anomalies, and terrestrial teleconnections. CESM1 SST EOFs indicate that both La Niña-like WPWM warming and El Niño-like east Pacific warming will be produced by climate change. The temporal frequency of these changes, however, are distinct. WPWM varies decadally, while ENSO is dominated by interannual variability. Future WPWM and ENSO warming may manifest as a tendency toward warm West Pacific SST, punctuated by extreme warm East Pacific events. WPWM EOFs from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation also identify dramatic WPWM-related declines in the Greater Horn of Africa and NME/SWE.

  5. Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

    2016-07-01

    River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Abrupt Climate Change: the View from the Past, the Present and the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, J. W. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate is changing as humans put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With CO2 levels today around 400ppm, we are clearly committed to far more climate change, both in the near term, and well beyond our children's future. A key question is how that change will occur. Abrupt climate changes are those that exceed our expectations, preparedness, and ability to adapt. Such changes challenge us economically, physically, and socially. This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what is may be coming in the future.

  7. Western Arctic Temperature Sensitivity Varies under Different Mean States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.; Longo, W. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Hu, A.; Huang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere on earth. Predictions of future change, however, are hindered by uncertainty in the mechanisms that underpin Arctic amplification. Data from Beringia (Alaska and Eastern Siberia) are particularly inconclusive with regards to both glacial-interglacial climate change as well as the presence or absence of abrupt climate change events such as the Younger Dryas. Here we investigate temperature change in Beringia from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to present using a unique 30 kyr lacustrine record of leaf wax hydrogen isotope ratios (δDwax) from Northern Alaska. We evaluate our results in the context of PMIP3 climate simulations as well as sensitivity tests of the effects of sea level and Bering Strait closure on Arctic Alaskan climate. The amplitude of LGM cooling in Alaska (-3.2 °C relative to pre-industrial) is smaller than other parts of North America and areas proximal to LGM ice sheets, but similar to Arctic Asia and Europe. This suggests that the local feedbacks (vegetation, etc.) had limited impacts on regional temperatures during the last ice-age, and suggests most of the Arctic exhibited similar responses to global climate boundary conditions. Deglacial warming was superimposed by a series of rapid warming events that encompass most of the temperature increase. These events are largely synchronous with abrupt events in the North Atlantic, but are amplified, muted, or even reversed in comparison depending on the mean climate state. For example, we observe warming during Heinrich 1 and during the submergence of the Bering Land Bridge, which are associated with cooling in the North Atlantic. Climate modeling suggests that opening of the Bering Strait controlled the amplitude and sign of millennial-scale temperature changes across the glacial termination.

  8. Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.

    PubMed

    Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa

    2015-07-13

    The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification--the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming--in only the last 10-20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming-and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient-is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

  9. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    PubMed

    Magris, Rafael A; Heron, Scott F; Pressey, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  10. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Magris, Rafael A.; Heron, Scott F.; Pressey, Robert L.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586

  11. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

    PubMed

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-04-20

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

  12. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China

    PubMed Central

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents. PMID:28425956

  13. An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Tuya, Fernando; Thomsen, Mads S.; Langlois, Timothy J.; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia--a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism--experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4°C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.

  14. Deglacial Warming and Wetting of Northern Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Longo, W. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Morrill, C.; Huang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Aeolian sand dunes swept across northern Alaska during the last glacial maximum. Today, summer temperatures are moderate and soils can remain waterlogged all summer long. How did the transition from a cold and dry glacial to a warm and wet interglacial take place? To answer this question we reconstructed temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation using biomarker hydrogen isotopes from a new 28,000 year-long sediment core from Lake E5, located in the central Brooks Range of Alaska. We use terrestrial leaf waxes (dDterr, C28-acid), informed by dD measurements of modern vegetation, to infer dD of precipitation, an indicator of relative temperature change. Biomarkers from aquatic organisms (dDaq, C18-acid) are used as a proxy for lake water isotopes. The offset between the two (eterr-aq) is used to infer relative changes in evaporative enrichment of lake water, and by extension, moisture balance. dDterr during the last glacial period was -282‰ compared to -258‰ during the Holocene, suggesting a 5.6 ± 2.7 °C increase in summer temperature using the modern local temperature-dD relationship. Gradual warming began at ~18.5 ka, and temperature increased abruptly at 11.5 ka, at the end of the Younger Dryas. Warming peaked in the early Holocene from 11.5 to 9.1 ka, indicating a Holocene thermal maximum associated with peak summer insolation. The eterr-aq supports a dry LGM and moist Holocene. Other sediment proxies (TIC, TOC, redox-sensitive elements) support the eterr-aq, and reveal a shift to more positive P-E beginning around 17 ka, suggesting rising temperature led increases in precipitation during the last deglaciation. Moreover, differing patterns of dDterr and eterr-aq during the deglaciation suggest that the relationship between temperature and precipitation changed through time. Such decoupling, likely due to regional atmospheric reorganization as the Laurentide ice sheet waned, illustrates the importance of atmospheric dynamics in

  15. Classical and quantum cosmology of the little rip abrupt event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albarran, Imanol; Bouhmadi-López, Mariam; Kiefer, Claus; Marto, João; Vargas Moniz, Paulo

    2016-09-01

    We analyze from a classical and quantum point of view the behavior of the Universe close to a little rip, which can be interpreted as a big rip sent towards the infinite future. Like a big rip singularity, a little rip implies the destruction of all bounded structures in the Universe and is thus an event where quantum effects could be important. We present here a new phantom scalar field model for the little rip. The quantum analysis is performed in quantum geometrodynamics, with the Wheeler-DeWitt equation as its central equation. We find that the little rip can be avoided in the sense of the DeWitt criterion, that is, by having a vanishing wave function at the place of the little rip. Therefore our analysis completes the answer to the question: can quantum cosmology smoothen or avoid the divergent behavior genuinely caused by phantom matter? We show that this can indeed happen for the little rip, similar to the avoidance of a big rip and a little sibling of the big rip.

  16. Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Regional Climate: Extreme Events, Stagnation, and the United States Warming Hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascioli, Nora R.

    Extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, drought, and extreme air pollution events have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, agriculture and economies. The frequency, magnitude and duration of these events are expected to change in the future in response to increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosols, but future climate projections are uncertain. A significant portion of this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the effects of aerosol forcing: to what extent were the effects from greenhouse gases masked by aerosol forcing over the historical observational period, and how much will decreases in aerosol forcing influence regional and global climate over the remainder of the 21st century? The observed frequency and intensity of extreme heat and precipitation events have increased in the U.S. over the latter half of the 20th century. Using aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, I parse apart the competing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on these extreme events. I find that small changes in extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the U.S., while in GHG high temperature extremes increase over most of the U.S. The spatial response patterns in AER and GHG are significantly anti-correlated, suggesting a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern U.S. decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central U.S. in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the 21 st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation change associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate. The

  17. Warm-Up Strategies for Sport and Exercise: Mechanisms and Applications.

    PubMed

    McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben

    2015-11-01

    It is widely accepted that warming-up prior to exercise is vital for the attainment of optimum performance. Both passive and active warm-up can evoke temperature, metabolic, neural and psychology-related effects, including increased anaerobic metabolism, elevated oxygen uptake kinetics and post-activation potentiation. Passive warm-up can increase body temperature without depleting energy substrate stores, as occurs during the physical activity associated with active warm-up. While the use of passive warm-up alone is not commonplace, the idea of utilizing passive warming techniques to maintain elevated core and muscle temperature throughout the transition phase (the period between completion of the warm-up and the start of the event) is gaining in popularity. Active warm-up induces greater metabolic changes, leading to increased preparedness for a subsequent exercise task. Until recently, only modest scientific evidence was available supporting the effectiveness of pre-competition warm-ups, with early studies often containing relatively few participants and focusing mostly on physiological rather than performance-related changes. External issues faced by athletes pre-competition, including access to equipment and the length of the transition/marshalling phase, have also frequently been overlooked. Consequently, warm-up strategies have continued to develop largely on a trial-and-error basis, utilizing coach and athlete experiences rather than scientific evidence. However, over the past decade or so, new research has emerged, providing greater insight into how and why warm-up influences subsequent performance. This review identifies potential physiological mechanisms underpinning warm-ups and how they can affect subsequent exercise performance, and provides recommendations for warm-up strategy design for specific individual and team sports.

  18. The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.

    2016-08-01

    The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

  19. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  20. Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

    2016-04-01

    A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions <50 years. The timing of regional culture demises, such as the Hittite Kingdom, Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

  1. Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Nino Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Oman, L. D.; Molod, A. M.

    2010-01-01

    This study is the first to identify a robust El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Nino events are classified as either conventional "cold tongue" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 3 region) or "warm pool" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region). The ERA-40, NCEP and MERRA meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Nino events. Consistent with previous studies, "cold tongue" events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During "warm pool" El Nino events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during the SON season. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to "warm pool" El Nino events: the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.

  2. Hemispheric asymmetry of ERPs and MMNs evoked by slow, fast and abrupt auditory motion.

    PubMed

    Shestopalova, L B; Petropavlovskaia, E A; Vaitulevich, S Ph; Nikitin, N I

    2016-10-01

    The current MMN study investigates whether brain lateralization during automatic discrimination of sound stimuli moving at different velocities is consistent with one of the three models of asymmetry: the right-hemispheric dominance model, the contralateral dominance model, or the neglect model. Auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded for three patterns of sound motion produced by linear or abrupt changes of interaural time differences. The slow motion (450deg/s) was used as standard, and the fast motion (620deg/s) and the abrupt sound shift served as deviants in the oddball blocks. All stimuli had the same onset/offset spatial positions. We compared the effects of the recording side (left, right) and of the direction of sound displacement (ipsi- or contralateral with reference to the side of recording) on the ERPs and mismatch negativity (MMN). Our results indicated different patterns of asymmetry for the ERPs and MMN responses. The ERPs showed a velocity-independent right-hemispheric dominance that emerged at the descending limb of N1 wave (at around 120-160ms) and could be related to overall context of the preattentive spatial perception. The MMNs elicited in the left hemisphere (at around 230-270ms) exhibited a contralateral dominance, whereas the right-hemispheric MMNs were insensitive to the direction of sound displacement. These differences in contralaterality between MMN responses produced by the left and the right hemisphere favour the neglect model of the preattentive motion processing indexed by MMN. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Climate warming promotes species diversity, but with greater taxonomic redundancy, in complex environments

    PubMed Central

    Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Purschke, Oliver; Ciobanu, Marcel; Cowles, Jane; Isbell, Forest; Wragg, Peter D.; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is predicted to alter species interactions, which could potentially lead to extinction events. However, there is an ongoing debate whether the effects of warming on biodiversity may be moderated by biodiversity itself. We tested warming effects on soil nematodes, one of the most diverse and abundant metazoans in terrestrial ecosystems, along a gradient of environmental complexity created by a gradient of plant species richness. Warming increased nematode species diversity in complex (16-species mixtures) plant communities (by ~36%) but decreased it in simple (monocultures) plant communities (by ~39%) compared to ambient temperature. Further, warming led to higher levels of taxonomic relatedness in nematode communities across all levels of plant species richness. Our results highlight both the need for maintaining species-rich plant communities to help offset detrimental warming effects and the inability of species-rich plant communities to maintain nematode taxonomic distinctness when warming occur. PMID:28740868

  4. Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability.

    PubMed

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A; Han, Weiqing; Timmermann, Axel; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Liu, Zhengyu; Washington, Warren M; Large, William; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kimoto, Masahide; Lambeck, Kurt; Wu, Bingyi

    2012-04-24

    Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open.

  5. The regional forcing of Northern hemisphere drought during recent warm tropical west Pacific Ocean La Niña events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,

    2014-01-01

    Northern Hemisphere circulations differ considerably between individual El Niño-Southern Oscillation events due to internal atmospheric variability and variation in the zonal location of sea surface temperature forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study examines the similarities between recent Northern Hemisphere droughts associated with La Niña events and anomalously warm tropical west Pacific sea surface temperatures during 1988–1989, 1998–2000, 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 in terms of the hemispheric-scale circulations and the regional forcing of precipitation over North America and Asia during the cold season of November through April. The continental precipitation reductions associated with recent central Pacific La Niña events were most severe over North America, eastern Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. High pressure dominated the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and weakened and displaced storm tracks northward over North America into central Canada. Regionally over North America and Asia, the position of anomalous circulations within the zonal band of mid-latitude high pressure varied between each La Niña event. Over the northwestern and southeastern United States and southern Asia, the interactions of anomalous circulations resulted in consistent regional temperature advection, which was subsequently balanced by similar precipitation-modifying vertical motions. Over the central and northeastern United States, the spatial variation of anomalous circulations resulted in modest inter-seasonal temperature advection variations, which were balanced by varying vertical motion and precipitation patterns. Over the Middle East and eastern Africa, the divergence of moisture and the advection of dry air due to anomalous circulations enhanced each of the droughts.

  6. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    PubMed Central

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  7. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-02-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  8. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

  9. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    PubMed

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  10. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    DOE PAGES

    Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; ...

    2017-01-23

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

  11. Factor V Leiden, Prothrombin and MTHFR Mutation in Patients with Preeclamsia, Intrauterine Growth Restriction and Placental Abruption.

    PubMed

    Livrinova, Vesna; Lega, Marija Hadzi; Dimcheva, Anita Hristova; Samardziski, Igor; Isjanovska, Rozalinda

    2015-12-15

    Factor V Leiden, Prothrombin and MTHFR gene mutation, could have an influence in pregnancy with adverse outcome Preeclamsia, IUGR and Placental abruption. The aim of this study is to investigate the presence of above mentioned inherited thrombophilias and its statistical significance, distribution among the complicated and normal pregnancy, and relative risk for carrier of mutation to develop preeclampsia, IUGR and placental abruption. Prospective cohort study is implemented at University Clinic for Obstetric and Gynecology in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. The study included 109 delivered patients: 40 with preeclapmsia, 22 with IUGR, 17 with placental abruption and 30 as control group with normal pregnancy. The amount of 3 ml venous blood has been used for detection of these point mutations using ThromboStrip -Opegen, QIAGEN kit manufactured for thrombotic risk. The highest frequency was found: in the group with preeclampsia 35% were MTHFR homozygous, IUGR -MTHFR heterozygous 45%, Placental abruption- 52.9% MTHFR heterozygous, and in the control group without thrombophilia 56.7%. There were combined thrombophilia in 3 patients. There aren`t statistical significance in presence of thrombophilia among groups (p > 0.05). Statistical significance (p < 0.05) was found between carriers of MTHFR homozygous in preeclampsia and group with placental abruption and control group. Relative risk in IUGR group for MTHFR homozygous was 5.54 (1.37abruption for Factor V Leiden heterozygous was 4.50 (0.47abruption. Further investigations with more patients are warranted.

  12. Factor V Leiden, Prothrombin and MTHFR Mutation in Patients with Preeclamsia, Intrauterine Growth Restriction and Placental Abruption

    PubMed Central

    Livrinova, Vesna; Lega, Marija Hadzi; Dimcheva, Anita Hristova; Samardziski, Igor; Isjanovska, Rozalinda

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Factor V Leiden, Prothrombin and MTHFR gene mutation, could have an influence in pregnancy with adverse outcome Preeclamsia, IUGR and Placental abruption. AIM: The aim of this study is to investigate the presence of above mentioned inherited thrombophilias and its statistical significance, distribution among the complicated and normal pregnancy, and relative risk for carrier of mutation to develop preeclampsia, IUGR and placental abruption. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study is implemented at University Clinic for Obstetric and Gynecology in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. The study included 109 delivered patients: 40 with preeclapmsia, 22 with IUGR, 17 with placental abruption and 30 as control group with normal pregnancy. The amount of 3 ml venous blood has been used for detection of these point mutations using ThromboStrip -Opegen, QIAGEN kit manufactured for thrombotic risk. RESULTS: The highest frequency was found: in the group with preeclampsia 35% were MTHFR homozygous, IUGR -MTHFR heterozygous 45%, Placental abruption- 52.9% MTHFR heterozygous, and in the control group without thrombophilia 56.7%. There were combined thrombophilia in 3 patients. There aren`t statistical significance in presence of thrombophilia among groups (p > 0.05). Statistical significance (p < 0.05) was found between carriers of MTHFR homozygous in preeclampsia and group with placental abruption and control group. Relative risk in IUGR group for MTHFR homozygous was 5.54 (1.37abruption for Factor V Leiden heterozygous was 4.50 (0.47abruption. Further investigations with more patients are warranted. PMID:27275292

  13. Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Linying; Yuan, Xing; Xie, Zhenghui; Wu, Peili; Li, Yaohui

    2016-01-01

    The recent global warming slowdown or hiatus after the big El Niño event in 1997/98 raises the questions of whether terrestrial hydrological cycle is being decelerated and how do the hydrological extremes respond to the hiatus. However, the rapidly developing drought events that are termed as “flash droughts” accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. Here, we investigate the long-term trend and variability of flash droughts over China. Flash droughts are most likely to occur over humid and semi-humid regions, such as southern and northeastern China. Flash drought averaged over China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, and the increase was mainly due to a long term warming of temperature (50%), followed by the contributions from decreasing soil moisture and increasing ET. There was a slight drop in temperature after 1997, but the increasing trend of flash droughts was tripled. Further results indicate that the decreasing temperature was compensated by the accelerated drying trends of soil moisture and enhanced ET, leading to an acceleration of flash droughts during the warming hiatus. The anthropogenic warming in the next few decades may exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China. PMID:27513724

  14. The Big Chills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, G. C.; Dwyer, G. S.; Bauch, H. A.

    2002-12-01

    At the end of the last glacial, the Earth's climate system abruptly shifted into the Younger Dryas, a 1500-year long cold snap known in the popular media as the Big Chill. Following an abrupt warming ending the Younger Dryas about 11,600 years ago, the climate system has remained in an interglacial state, thought to have been relatively stable and devoid, with possibly one or two exceptions, of abrupt climate change. A growing amount of evidence suggests that this benign view of interglacial climate is incorrect. High resolution records of North Atlantic ice rafted sediment, now regarded as evidence of extreme multiyear sea ice drift, reveal abrupt shifts on centennial and millennial time scales. These have been traced from the end of the Younger Dryas to the present, revealing evidence of significant climate variability through all of the last two millennia. Correlatives of these events have been found in drift ice records from the Arctic's Laptev Sea, in the isotopic composition of North Grip ice, and in dissolved K from the GISP2 ice core, attesting to their regional extent and imprint in proxies of very different origins. Measurements of Mg/Ca ratios in planktic foraminifera over the last two millennia in the eastern North Atlantic demonstrate that increases in drifting multiyear sea ice were accompanied by abrupt decreases in sea surface temperatures, especially during the Little Ice Age. Estimated rates of temperature change are on the order of two degrees centigrade, more than thirty percent of the regional glacial to interglacial change, within a few decades. When compared at the same resolution, these interglacial variations are as abrupt as the last glacial's Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. The interglacial abrupt changes are especially striking because they occurred within the core of the warm North Atlantic Current. The changes may have been triggered by variations in solar irradiance, but if so their large magnitude and regional extent requires amplifying

  15. The Holocene warm-humid phases in the North China Plain as recorded by multi-proxy records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Jianxin; Zhou, Shangzhe; Chang, Hong

    2009-02-01

    The grain size and palinology of sediment and the frequency of 14C dada provide an integrated reconstruction of the Holocene warm-humid phases of the North China Plain. Two clear intense and long-lasting warm-humid phases were identified by comprehensive research in this region. The first phase was dated back to the early Holocene (9 000-7 000 a BP), and the second was centered at 5 000-3 000 a BP. The warm-humid episode between 9 000 and 7 000 a BP was also recognized at other sites showing global climatic trends rather than local events. Compared with the concern to the warm-humid phase of the early Holocene, the second one was not paid enough attention in the last few decades. The compilation of the Holocene paleoclimate data suggests that perhaps the second warm-humid phase was pervasive in monsoon region of China. In perspective of environmental archaeology, much attention should be devoted to it, because the flourish and adaptation of the Neolithic cultures and the building up of the first state seem to corresponding to the general warm-humid climatic conditions of this period. In addition, a warm-humid interval at 7 200-6 500 a BP was recognized by the grain size data from three sites. However, this warm-humid event was not shown in pollen assemblage and temporal distribution of 14C data. Perhaps, the resolution for climatic reconstruction from pollen and temporal distribution of 14C data cited here is relatively low and small-amplitude and short-period climatic events cannot be well reflected by the data. Due to the difference in locality and elevation of sampling site, as well as in resolution of proxy records, it is difficult to make precise correlation. Further work is needed in the future.

  16. Simulating planetary wave propagation to the upper atmosphere during stratospheric warming events at different mountain wave scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Koval, Andrey V.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.; Savenkova, Elena N.

    2018-04-01

    Parameterization schemes of atmospheric normal modes (NMs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) have been implemented into the mechanistic Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model (MUAM) simulating atmospheric general circulation. Based on the 12-members ensemble of runs with the MUAM, a composite of the stratospheric warming (SW) has been constructed using the UK Met Office data as the lower boundary conditions. The simulation results show that OGW amplitudes increase at altitudes above 30 km in the Northern Hemisphere after the SW event. At altitudes of about 50 km, OGWs have largest amplitudes over North American and European mountain systems before and during the composite SW, and over Himalayas after the SW. Simulations demonstrate substantial (up to 50-70%) variations of amplitudes of stationary planetary waves (PWs) during and after the SW in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. Westward travelling NMs have amplitude maxima not only in the Northern, but also in the Southern Hemisphere, where these modes have waveguides in the middle and upper atmosphere. Simulated variations of PW and NM amplitudes correspond to changes in the mean zonal wind, EP-fluxes and wave refractive index at different phases of the composite SW events. Inclusion of the parameterization of OGW effects leads to decreases in amplitudes (up to 15%) of almost all SPWs before and after the SW event and their increase (up to 40-60%) after the SW in the stratosphere and mesosphere at middle and high northern latitudes. It is suggested that observed changes in NM amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere during SW could be caused by divergence of increased southward EP-flux. This EP-flux increases due to OGW drag before SW and extends into the Southern Hemisphere.

  17. Decadal Variation's Offset of Global Warming in Recent Tropical Pacific Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeo, S. R.; Yeh, S. W.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, W.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the increasing greenhouse gas concentration, there is no significant warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific since about 2000. This counterintuitive observation has generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variation over the Pacific Ocean such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming from SST records. Here we present three primary modes of global SST as a secular warming trend, a low-frequency variability, and a biennial oscillation through the use of novel statistical method. By analyzing temporal behavior of the three-mode, it is found that the opposite contributions of secular warming trend and cold phase of low-frequency variability since 1999 account for the warming hiatus in the tropical eastern Pacific. This result implies that the low-frequency variability modulates the manifestation of global warming signal in the tropical Pacific SST. Furthermore, if the low-frequency variability turns to a positive phase, warming in the tropical eastern Pacific will be amplified and also strong El Niño events will occur more frequently in the near future.

  18. Identification of unusual events in multichannel bridge monitoring data using wavelet transform and outlier analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omenzetter, Piotr; Brownjohn, James M. W.; Moyo, Pilate

    2003-08-01

    Continuously operating instrumented structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are becoming a practical alternative to replace visual inspection for assessment of condition and soundness of civil infrastructure. However, converting large amount of data from an SHM system into usable information is a great challenge to which special signal processing techniques must be applied. This study is devoted to identification of abrupt, anomalous and potentially onerous events in the time histories of static, hourly sampled strains recorded by a multi-sensor SHM system installed in a major bridge structure in Singapore and operating continuously for a long time. Such events may result, among other causes, from sudden settlement of foundation, ground movement, excessive traffic load or failure of post-tensioning cables. A method of outlier detection in multivariate data has been applied to the problem of finding and localizing sudden events in the strain data. For sharp discrimination of abrupt strain changes from slowly varying ones wavelet transform has been used. The proposed method has been successfully tested using known events recorded during construction of the bridge, and later effectively used for detection of anomalous post-construction events.

  19. Synchronous change of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during the last deglacial warming.

    PubMed

    Parrenin, F; Masson-Delmotte, V; Köhler, P; Raynaud, D; Paillard, D; Schwander, J; Barbante, C; Landais, A; Wegner, A; Jouzel, J

    2013-03-01

    Understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 during past climate changes requires clear knowledge of how it varies in time relative to temperature. Antarctic ice cores preserve highly resolved records of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the past 800,000 years. Here we propose a revised relative age scale for the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the last deglacial warming, using data from five Antarctic ice cores. We infer the phasing between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature at four times when their trends change abruptly. We find no significant asynchrony between them, indicating that Antarctic temperature did not begin to rise hundreds of years before the concentration of atmospheric CO2, as has been suggested by earlier studies.

  20. The Necessity of Awareness of Early Symptoms of Placental Abruption Among Pregnant Japanese Women

    PubMed Central

    Suzuki, Shunji; Shinmura, Hiroki

    2016-01-01

    Background In 2012, the recommendation for immediate contact and visit to obstetric institutions by pregnant women was emphasized by The Japan Obstetric Compensation System for Cerebral Palsy (JOCSC). In this study, we examined whether or not the increased awareness has led to the improvement of perinatal outcomes of placental abruption managed at private clinics. Methods We reviewed the obstetric records of 38 singleton pregnant women complicated by placental abruption that developed at home, and were managed at private clinics from April 2008 through April 2016. Results The perinatal outcomes, specifically the rate of cases with ≥ 1 hour time interval between symptom onset and clinic visit, have not changed significantly after the intervention. Conclusion The provision of information regarding the early clinical symptoms associated with placental abruption in pregnant women has not been well documented in Japan. PMID:27540442

  1. Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

    2016-10-01

    The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

  2. Abrupt Depletion Layer Approximation for the Metal Insulator Semiconductor Diode.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Kenneth

    1979-01-01

    Determines the excess surface change carrier density, surface potential, and relative capacitance of a metal insulator semiconductor diode as a function of the gate voltage, using the precise questions and the equations derived with the abrupt depletion layer approximation. (Author/GA)

  3. Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saha, R.

    2012-12-01

    During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

  4. Solar Eclipse Engagement and Outreach in Madras and Warm Springs, Oregon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirk, M. S.; Pesnell, W. D.; Ahern, S.; Boyle, M.; Gonzales, T.; Leone, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Central Oregon towns of Madras and Warm Springs were in an ideal location to observe the total solar eclipse of 2017. In anticipation of this event, we embarked on a yearlong partnership to engage and excite these communities. We developed educational events for all students in the school district, grades K-12, as well as two evening keynote addresses during an eclipse week in May. This eclipse week provided resources, learning opportunities, and safety information for all students and families prior to the end of the school year. With the collaboration of graphic design students at Oregon State University, we produced static educational displays as an introduction to the Museum at Warm Springs' exhibit featuring eclipse art. The weekend before the eclipse, we gave away 15,000 pairs of solar viewing glasses to the local community and manned a science booth at the Oregon Solarfest to engage the arriving eclipse tourists. These efforts culminated on Monday, August 21st with tens of thousands of people viewing eclipse totality in Madras and Warm Springs.

  5. Excess warming in Central Europe after the 8.2 ka cold event: evidence from a varve-dated ostracod δ18O record from Mondsee (Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauterbach, Stefan; Andersen, Nils; Erlenkeuser, Helmut; Danielopol, Dan L.; Namiotko, Tadeusz; Hüls, Matthias; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Nantke, Carla; Meyer, Hanno; Chapligin, Bernhard; von Grafenstein, Uli; Brauer, Achim

    2017-04-01

    As evidenced by numerous palaeoclimate records worldwide, the Holocene warm period has been punctuated by several short, low-amplitude cold episodes. Among these, the so-called 8.2 ka cold event represents a particularly prominent climate anomaly. Accordingly, several proxy-based and modeling studies have addressed its causal mechanisms, absolute dating, duration, amplitude, spatio-temporal characteristics and environmental consequences so far. However, knowledge about the dynamics and causes of subsequent climate recovery is still limited although this is essential for understanding rapid climate change. Here we present a new sub-decadally resolved and precisely dated oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for the interval 7.7-8.7 ka BP derived from benthic ostracods preserved in the varved lake sediments of pre-Alpine Mondsee (Austria), providing new insights into climate development around the 8.2 ka cold event in Central Europe. The high-resolution Mondsee δ18O record reveals the occurrence of a pronounced cold spell around 8.2 ka BP, whose amplitude (˜1.0 ‰ , equivalent to a 1.5-2.0 ˚ C cooling), total duration (151 years) and absolute dating (8231-8080 varve years BP, i.e. calendar years before AD 1950) agrees well with results from other Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives, e.g. the Greenland ice cores. In addition, the Mondsee data set provides evidence for a 75-year-long δ18O overshoot directly following the 8.2 ka event (between 8080 and 8005 varve years BP), which is interpreted as a period of excess warming (about 0.5-0.6 ˚ C above the pre-8.2 ka event level) in Central Europe. Though so far not been explicitly described elsewhere, this observation is consistent with evidence from other proxy records in the North Atlantic realm, therefore likely reflecting a hemispheric-scale signal rather than a local phenomenon. As a possible trigger we suggest an enhanced resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), supporting

  6. On statistical irregularity of stratospheric warming occurrence during northern winters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenkova, Elena N.; Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.

    2017-10-01

    Statistical analysis of dates of warming events observed during the years 1981-2016 at different stratospheric altitudes reveals their non-uniform distributions during northern winter months with maxima at the beginning of January, at the end of January - beginning of February and at the end of February. Climatology of zonal-mean zonal wind, deviations of temperature from its winter-averaged values, and planetary wave (PW) characteristics at high and middle northern latitudes in the altitude range from the ground up to 60 km is studied using the database of meteorological reanalysis MERRA. Climatological temperature deviations averaged over the 60-90°N latitudinal bands reveal cooler and warmer layers descending due to seasonal changes during the polar night. PW amplitudes and upward Eliassen-Palm fluxes averaged over 36 years have periodical maxima with the main maximum at the beginning of January at altitudes 40-50 km. During the above-mentioned intervals of more frequent occurrence of stratospheric warming events, maxima of PW amplitudes and Eliassen-Palm fluxes, also minima of eastward winds in the high-latitude northern stratosphere have been found. Climatological intra-seasonal irregularities of stratospheric warming dates could indicate reiterating phases of stratospheric vacillations in different years.

  7. Investigating Flow Features Near Abrupt Topography in the Mariana Basin

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Investigating Flow Features Near Abrupt Topography in...waves generated by flow over topography and mesoscale eddies generated by flow past islands. Having identified the prime locations in the region for such

  8. El Nino-like events during Miocene

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Casey, R.E.; Nelson, C.O.; Weinheimer, A.L.

    El Nino-like events have been recorded from the Miocene laminated siliceous facies of the Monterey Formation. These El Nino-like Miocene events are compared to El Nino events recorded from Holocene varved sediments deposited within the anoxic Santa Barbara basin. Strong El Nino events can be recognized from Holocene Santa Barbara basin sediments by increases in radiolarian flux to the sea floor during those events. For the last 100-plus years, frequency of strong El Ninos has been on the order of one extremely strong event about every 100 years, and one easily recognizable event about every 18 years. Frequencies in themore » laminated (varved) Miocene range from about every 4-5 years to over 20 years. The higher frequencies occur within generally warm intervals and the lower frequencies within generally cold intervals. Perhaps the frequencies of these events may, in fact, be an important indicator in determining whether the intervals were cold or warm. Reconstructions of the paleo-California Current system during El Nino-like periods have been made for the west coast from the Gulf of California to northern California. Strong El Nino-like events occurred 5.5 and 8 Ma, and a strong anti-El Nino-like event occurred at about 6.5 Ma. Evidence from the 5.5 and 8 Ma events combined with other evidence suggests that modern El Ninos, similar to today's, were initiated at 5.5 Ma or earlier.« less

  9. Short-term thermal stratification and partial overturning events in a warm polymictic reservoir: effects on distribution of phytoplankton community.

    PubMed

    Santos, R M; Saggio, A A; Silva, T L R; Negreiros, N F; Rocha, O

    2015-01-01

    In lentic freshwater ecosystems, patterns of thermal stratification play a considerable part in determining the population dynamics of phytoplankton. In this study we investigated how these thermal patterns and the associated hydrodynamic processes affect the vertical distribution of phytoplankton during two consecutive diel cycles in a warm polymictic urban reservoir in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil. Water samples were taken and physical, chemical and biological data collected at half-meter intervals of depth along a water column at a fixed site, every 3 hours throughout the 48-hour period. Two events of stratification, followed by deepening of the thermocline occurred during the study period and led to changes in the vertical distribution of phytoplankton populations. Aphanocapsa delicatissima Nägeli was the single dominant species throughout the 48-hour period. In the second diel cycle, the density gradient induced by temperature differences avoided the sedimentation of Mougeotia sp. C. Agardh to the deepest layers. On the other hand, Pseudanabaena galeata Böcher remained in the 4.0-5.5 m deep layer. The thermal structure of the water was directly affected by two meteorological factors: air temperature and wind speed. Changes in the cell density and vertical distribution of the phytoplankton were controlled by the thermal and hydrodynamic events.

  10. Abrupt GaP/Si hetero-interface using bistepped Si buffer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ping Wang, Y., E-mail: yanping.wang@insa-rennes.fr; Kuyyalil, J.; Nguyen Thanh, T.

    We evidence the influence of the quality of the starting Si surface on the III-V/Si interface abruptness and on the formation of defects during the growth of III-V/Si heterogeneous crystal, using high resolution transmission electron microscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy. GaP layers were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on vicinal Si (001). The strong effect of the Si substrate chemical preparation is first demonstrated by studying structural properties of both Si homoepitaxial layer and GaP/Si heterostructure. It is then shown that choosing adequate chemical preparation conditions and subsequent III-V regrowth conditions enables the quasi-suppression of micro-twins in the epilayer.more » Finally, the abruptness of GaP/Si interface is found to be very sensitive to the Si chemical preparation and is improved by the use of a bistepped Si buffer prior to III-V overgrowth.« less

  11. Self-assembly of electronically abrupt borophene/organic lateral heterostructures

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiaolong; Wei, Zonghui; Balla, Itamar; Mannix, Andrew J.; Guisinger, Nathan P.; Luijten, Erik; Hersam, Mark C.

    2017-01-01

    Two-dimensional boron sheets (that is, borophene) have recently been realized experimentally and found to have promising electronic properties. Because electronic devices and systems require the integration of multiple materials with well-defined interfaces, it is of high interest to identify chemical methods for forming atomically abrupt heterostructures between borophene and electronically distinct materials. Toward this end, we demonstrate the self-assembly of lateral heterostructures between borophene and perylene-3,4,9,10-tetracarboxylic dianhydride (PTCDA). These lateral heterostructures spontaneously form upon deposition of PTCDA onto submonolayer borophene on Ag(111) substrates as a result of the higher adsorption enthalpy of PTCDA on Ag(111) and lateral hydrogen bonding among PTCDA molecules, as demonstrated by molecular dynamics simulations. In situ x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy confirms the weak chemical interaction between borophene and PTCDA, while molecular-resolution ultrahigh-vacuum scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy reveal an electronically abrupt interface at the borophene/PTCDA lateral heterostructure interface. As the first demonstration of a borophene-based heterostructure, this work will inform emerging efforts to integrate borophene into nanoelectronic applications. PMID:28261662

  12. Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimm, Alice M.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.; Gomes, Júlio

    1998-11-01

    The impact of El Niño and La Niña events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events.The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral

  13. Periodic Variations in Low-Latitudinal Ionosphere during Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in 2016/2017 Winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Zhang, D.

    2017-12-01

    With datasets of electron density, neutral wind, ionosonde, neutral temperature, and geomagnetism, we studied the low-latitudinal ionosphere in East-Asia sector during Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) Event in 2016/2017 winter, and some periodic variations in several parameters were revealed. A notable quasi-14.5-day (Q14.5D) period was detected in the strength and location of the northern equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) crest shown with total electron content (TEC). As comparison, northern EIA crest in the American sector had similar characters. With data from Wuhan meteor radar and Yunnan MF radar, we found that, within altitude ranging from 80-100 km, wind field also showed above-mentioned periodic variation, which varied in different heights and stations. The Q14.5D period was also revealed in critical frequency (foF2) and peak altitude (hmF2) of F2 layer from two ionosonde stations in southern China. From electron density of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and TEC of Metop-A, it was shown that this period component is also noticeable in the topside ionosphere above 800 km. However, this character is different in EEJ, of which the Morlet wavelet showed higher strength in quasi-7.5-day period compared to its Q14.5D component.

  14. Impact of warming events on reef-scale temperature variability as captured in two Little Cayman coral Sr/Ca records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Reumont, J.; Hetzinger, S.; Garbe-Schönberg, D.; Manfrino, C.; Dullo, W.-Chr.

    2016-03-01

    The rising temperature of the world's oceans is affecting coral reef ecosystems by increasing the frequency and severity of bleaching and mortality events. The susceptibility of corals to temperature stress varies on local and regional scales. Insights into potential controlling parameters are hampered by a lack of long term in situ data in most coral reef environments and sea surface temperature (SST) products often do not resolve reef-scale variations. Here we use 42 years (1970-2012) of coral Sr/Ca data to reconstruct seasonal- to decadal-scale SST variations in two adjacent but distinct reef environments at Little Cayman, Cayman Islands. Our results indicate that two massive Diploria strigosa corals growing in the lagoon and in the fore reef responded differently to past warming events. Coral Sr/Ca data from the shallow lagoon successfully record high summer temperatures confirmed by in situ observations (>33°C). Surprisingly, coral Sr/Ca from the deeper fore reef is strongly affected by thermal stress events, although seasonal temperature extremes and mean SSTs at this site are reduced compared to the lagoon. The shallow lagoon coral showed decadal variations in Sr/Ca, supposedly related to the modulation of lagoonal temperature through varying tidal water exchange, influenced by the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. Our results show that reef-scale SST variability can be much larger than suggested by satellite SST measurements. Thus, using coral SST proxy records from different reef zones combined with in situ observations will improve conservation programs that are developed to monitor and predict potential thermal stress on coral reefs.

  15. Trends in Seawater Boron-based Proxies during the Late Paleocene and Early Eocene Associated with Long-term Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, D. T.; Penman, D. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Zachos, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Boron isotopes (δ11B) and boron/calcium ratios (B/Ca) in tests of planktic foraminifera are controlled by equilibrium reactions between boron and carbon species in seawater, and thus represent important proxies of past marine carbonate chemistry. Indeed, the recent application of these boron-based proxies to fossil shells of planktic foraminifera from cores spanning the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56Ma, an abrupt global warming and ocean acidification event) reveal a decline of ~0.3 in the pH of the mixed-layer [1], an anomaly that is well within the range of estimates based on the observed shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) [2, and references therein]. The PETM occurred superimposed on a long-term warming trend that initiated in the Late Paleocene and continued into the Early Eocene (LPEE; 53-59Ma). The magnitude of warming [3] and deepening of the CCD [4] indicate that the LPEE was driven by a rise in pCO2 nearly equivalent to that of the PETM [5]. Here we extend the PETM record of boron-based proxies at IODP Site 1209 across the LPEE, in conjunction with stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in planktic foraminifera, in order to better constrain the long-term changes in pH and carbonate chemistry that accompanied the suggested rise in atmospheric CO2. The 20kyr resolution B/Ca record shows a long-term decline of ~25% during the LPEE, as well as subtle 400kyr cycles associated with eccentricity that mirror those observed in δ13C, and thus might reflect on changes in pH. The lower resolution δ11B record exhibits little change during the Late Paleocene before decreasing step-wise to lower values following the PETM, indicating that either pH in the upper ocean did not change significantly prior to the PETM, despite warming and inferred pCO2 increase, or changes in δ11Bseawater compensated for pH driven changes. As verification of these observations at Site 1209, complementary B/Ca and δ11B records are being generated for Atlantic IODP

  16. Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2016-01-01

    The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

  17. Effects of the major sudden stratospheric warming event of 2009 on the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency radio signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pal, S.; Hobara, Y.; Chakrabarti, S. K.; Schnoor, P. W.

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents effects of the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event of 2009 on the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) radio signals propagating in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Signal amplitudes from four transmitters received by VLF/LF radio networks of Germany and Japan corresponding to the major SSW event are investigated for possible anomalies and atmospheric influence on the high- to middle-latitude ionosphere. Significant anomalous increase or decrease of nighttime and daytime amplitudes of VLF/LF signals by ˜3-5 dB during the SSW event have been found for all propagation paths associated with stratospheric temperature rise at 10 hPa level. Increase or decrease in VLF/LF amplitudes during daytime and nighttime is actually due to the modification of the lower ionospheric boundary conditions in terms of electron density and electron-neutral collision frequency profiles and associated modal interference effects between the different propagating waveguide modes during the SSW period. TIMED/SABER mission data are also used to investigate the upper mesospheric conditions over the VLF/LF propagation path during the same time period. We observe a decrease in neutral temperature and an increase in pressure at the height of 75-80 km around the peak time of the event. VLF/LF anomalies are correlated and in phase with the stratospheric temperature and mesospheric pressure variation, while minimum of mesospheric cooling shows a 2-3 day delay with maximum VLF/LF anomalies. Simulations of VLF/LF diurnal variation are performed using the well-known Long Wave Propagating Capability (LWPC) code within the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to explain the VLF/LF anomalies qualitatively.

  18. Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buermann, Wolfgang; Beaulieu, Claudie; Parida, Bikash; Medvigy, David; Collatz, George J.; Sheffield, Justin; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2016-03-01

    The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ˜ 1 PgC yr-1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ˜ 30 % larger than observed (or ˜ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

  19. Ge-on-insulator tunneling FET with abrupt source junction formed by utilizing snowplow effect of NiGe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumura, Ryo; Katoh, Takumi; Takaguchi, Ryotaro; Takenaka, Mitsuru; Takagi, Shinichi

    2018-04-01

    Tunneling field-effect transistors (TFETs) attract much attention for use in realizing next-generation low-power processors. In particular, Ge-on-insulator (GOI) TFETs are expected to realize low power operation with a high on-current/off-current (I on/I off) ratio, owing to their narrow bandgap. Here, to improve the performance of GOI-TFETs, a source junction with a high doping concentration and an abrupt impurity profile is essential. In this study, a snowplow effect of NiGe combined with low-energy BF2 + implantation has been investigated to realize an abrupt p+/n Ge junction for GOI n-channel TFETs. By optimizing the Ni thickness to form NiGe (thickness: 4 nm), an abrupt junction with a B profile abruptness of ˜5 nm/dec has been realized with a high doping concentration of around 1021 cm-3. The operation of GOI n-TFETs with this source junction having the abrupt B profile has been demonstrated, and the improvement of TFET properties such as the I on/I off ratio from 311 to 743 and the subthreshold slope from 368 to 239 mV/dec has been observed. This junction formation technology is attractive for enhancing the TFET performance.

  20. Involvement of human decidual cell-expressed tissue factor in uterine hemostasis and abruption.

    PubMed

    Lockwood, C J; Paidas, M; Murk, W K; Kayisli, U A; Gopinath, A; Huang, S J; Krikun, G; Schatz, F

    2009-11-01

    Vascular injury increases access and binding of plasma-derived factor VII to perivascular cell membrane-bound tissue factor (TF). The resulting TF/VIIa complex promotes hemostasis by cleaving pro-thrombin to thrombin leading to the fibrin clot. In human pregnancy, decidual cell-expressed TF prevents decidual hemorrhage (abruption). During placentation, trophoblasts remodel decidual spiral arteries into high conductance vessels. Shallow trophoblast invasion impedes decidual vascular conversion, producing an inadequate uteroplacental blood flow that elicits abruption-related placental ischemia. Thrombin induces several biological effects via cell surface protease activated receptors. In first trimester human DCs thrombin increases synthesis of sFlt-1, which elicits placental ischemia by impeding angiogenesis-related decidual vascular remodeling. During pregnacy, the fibrillar collagen-rich amnion and choriodecidua extracellular matrix (ECM) provides greater than additive tensile strength and structural integrity. Thrombin acts as an autocrine/paracrine mediator that degrades these ECMs by augmenting decidual cell expression of: 1) matrix metalloproteinases and 2) interleukin-8, a key mediator of abruption-associated decidual infiltration of neutrophils, which express several ECM degrading proteases. Among the cell types at the maternal fetal interface at term, TF expression is highest in decidual cells indicating that this TF meets the hemostatic demands of labor and delivery. TF expression in cultured term decidual cells is enhanced by progestin and thrombin suggesting that the maintenance of elevated circulating progesterone provides hemostatic protection and that abruption-generated thrombin acts in an autocrine/paracrine fashion on decidual cells to promote hemostasis via enhanced TF expression.

  1. Involvement of human decidual cell-expressed tissue factor in uterine hemostasis and abruption

    PubMed Central

    Lockwood, C.J.; Paidas, M.; Murk, W.K.; Kayisli, U.A.; Gopinath, A.; Krikun, G.; Huang, S.J.; Schatz, F.

    2009-01-01

    Vascular injury increases access and binding of plasma-derived factor VII to perivascular cell membrane-bound tissue factor (TF). The resulting TF/VIIa complex promotes hemostasis by cleaving pro-thrombin to thrombin leading to the fibrin clot. In human pregnancy, decidual cell-expressed TF prevents decidual hemorrhage (abruption). During placentation, trophoblasts remodel decidual spiral arteries into high conductance vessels. Shallow trophoblast invasion impedes decidual vascular conversion, producing an inadequate uteroplacental blood flow that elicits abruption-related placental ischemia. Thrombin induces several biological effects via cell surface protease activated receptors. In first trimester human DCs thrombin increases synthesis of sFlt-1, which elicits placental ischemia by impeding angiogenesis-related decidual vascular remodeling. During pregnacy, the fibrillar collagen-rich amnion and choriodecidua extracellular matrix (ECM) provides greater than additive tensile strength and structural integrity. Thrombin acts as an autocrine/paracrine mediator that degrades these ECMs by augmenting decidual cell expression of: 1) matrix metalloproteinases and 2) interleukin-8, a key mediator of abruption-associated decidual infiltration of neutrophils, which express several ECM degrading proteases. Our recent observations that: 1) among the cell types at the maternal fetal interface at term TF expression is highest in decidual cells indicates that this TF meets the hemostatic demands of labor and delivery; 2) TF expression in cultured term decidual cells is enhanced by progestin and thrombin suggest that maintenance of elevated circulating progesterone at term provides hemostatic protection, whereas abruption-generated thrombin can act in autocrine/paracrine fashion on DCs to promote hemostasis via enhanced TF expression. PMID:19720393

  2. Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M

    2015-09-15

    Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.

  3. Palaeoclimate: ocean tides and Heinrich events.

    PubMed

    Arbic, Brian K; Macayeal, Douglas R; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Milne, Glenn A

    2004-11-25

    Climate varied enormously over the most recent ice age--for example, large pulses of ice-rafted debris, originating mainly from the Labrador Sea, were deposited into the North Atlantic at roughly 7,000-year intervals, with global climatic implications. Here we show that ocean tides within the Labrador Sea were exceptionally large over the period spanning these huge, abrupt ice movements, which are known as Heinrich events. We propose that tides played a catalytic role in liberating iceberg armadas during that time.

  4. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    PubMed

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  5. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

    PubMed Central

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-01-01

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

  6. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds.

    PubMed

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D; Swart, Peter K; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M; Blättler, Clara L; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M; Pratiwi, Santi D; Reijmer, John J G; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L; Sloss, Craig R; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R

    2016-07-20

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of particulate organic matter. A weaker 'proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

  7. Additivity of abrupt onset effects supports nonspatial distraction, not the capture of spatial attention.

    PubMed

    Folk, Charles L; Remington, Roger W; Wu, Shu-Chieh

    2009-02-01

    In a recent article, Schreij, Owens, and Theeuwes (2008) reported that abruptly onsetting distractors produce costs in performance even when spatial-cuing effects confirm the presence of a top-down set for color. The authors argued that these results show that abruptly onsetting new objects capture attention independent of a top-down set and, thus, provide conclusive evidence against the theory that attentional capture is contingent on top-down attentional control settings (Folk, Remington, & Johnston, 1992). In the following article, we argue that, contrary to the conclusion drawn by Schreij et al., their own data (1) disconfirm the claim that their abrupt onsets captured spatial attention and (2) are consistent with nonspatial interference accounts of singleton-distractor effects. In support of the nonspatial account, we show that in a paradigm similar to Schreij et al.'s, distractors that do not capture attention can nonetheless influence responses to a target. We conclude that the results of Schreij et al. do not represent a challenge to contingent capture theory.

  8. Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Santoso, Agus; Lin, Xiaopei; Chen, Zhaohui; McPhaden, Michael J.

    2017-08-01

    The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events--which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies--is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. ) under a most likely emission scenario, we demonstrate that extreme El Niño frequency increases linearly with the GMT towards a doubling at 1.5 °C warming. This increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events continues for up to a century after GMT has stabilized, underpinned by an oceanic thermocline deepening that sustains faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the off-equatorial region. Ultimately, this implies a higher risk of extreme El Niño to future generations after GMT rise has halted. On the other hand, whereas previous research suggests extreme La Niña events may double in frequency under the 4.5 °C warming scenario, the results presented here indicate little to no change under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming.

  9. Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

    1997-12-31

    The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

  10. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Middle East coastal ecosystem response to middle-to-late Holocene abrupt climate changes.

    PubMed

    Kaniewski, D; Paulissen, E; Van Campo, E; Al-Maqdissi, M; Bretschneider, J; Van Lerberghe, K

    2008-09-16

    The Holocene vegetation history of the northern coastal Arabian Peninsula is of long-standing interest, as this Mediterranean/semiarid/arid region is known to be particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Detailed palynological data from an 800-cm alluvial sequence cored in the Jableh plain in northwest Syria have been used to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the coastal lowlands and the nearby Jabal an Nuşayriyah mountains for the period 2150 to 550 B.C. Corresponding with the 4.2 to 3.9 and 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP abrupt climate changes (ACCs), two large-scale shifts to a more arid climate have been recorded. These two ACCs had different impacts on the vegetation assemblages in coastal Syria. The 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC is drier and lasted longer than the 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC, and is characterized by the development of a warm steppe pollen-derived biome (1100-800 B.C.) and a peak of hot desert pollen-derived biome at 900 B.C. The 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC is characterized by a xerophytic woods and shrubs pollen-derived biome ca. 2050 B.C. The impact of the 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC on human occupation and cultural development is important along the Syrian coast with the destruction of Ugarit and the collapse of the Ugarit kingdom at ca. 1190 to 1185 B.C.

  12. Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harvell, C.D.; Mitchell, C.E.; Ward, J.R.; Altizer, S.; Dobson, A.P.; Ostfeld, R.S.; Samuel, M.D.

    2002-01-01

    Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

  13. Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvell, C. Drew; Mitchell, Charles E.; Ward, Jessica R.; Altizer, Sonia; Dobson, Andrew P.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2002-06-01

    Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

  14. Relative sea-level data from southwest Scotland constrain meltwater-driven sea-level jumps prior to the 8.2 kyr BP event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, Thomas; Long, Antony J.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Jackson, Luke P.; Smith, David E.

    2016-11-01

    The most significant climate cooling of the Holocene is centred on 8.2 kyr BP (the '8.2 event'). Its cause is widely attributed to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) associated with the sudden drainage of Laurentide proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, but model simulations have difficulty reproducing the event with a single-pulse scenario of freshwater input. Several lines of evidence point to multiple episodes of freshwater release from the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) between ∼8900 and ∼8200 cal yr BP, yet the precise number, timing and magnitude of these events - critical constraints for AMOC simulations - are far from resolved. Here we present a high-resolution relative sea level (RSL) record for the period 8800 to 7800 cal yr BP developed from estuarine and salt-marsh deposits in SW Scotland. We find that RSL rose abruptly in three steps by 0.35 m, 0.7 m and 0.4 m (mean) at 8760-8640, 8595-8465, 8323-8218 cal yr BP respectively. The timing of these RSL steps correlate closely with short-lived events expressed in North Atlantic proxy climate and oceanographic records, providing evidence of at least three distinct episodes of enhanced meltwater discharge from the decaying LIS prior to the 8.2 event. Our observations can be used to test the fidelity of both climate and ice-sheet models in simulating abrupt change during the early Holocene.

  15. Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele M.; Borovikov, Anna; Schopf, Paul S.

    1999-01-01

    Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

  16. Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present

    PubMed Central

    Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L.; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M.; Fahl, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean. PMID:27456826

  17. Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present.

    PubMed

    Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M; Fahl, Kirsten

    2016-07-26

    In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean.

  18. Extensive wildfires, climate change, and an abrupt state change in subalpine ribbon forests, Colorado.

    PubMed

    Calder, W John; Shuman, Bryan

    2017-10-01

    Ecosystems may shift abruptly when the effects of climate change and disturbance interact, and landscapes with regularly patterned vegetation may be especially vulnerable to abrupt shifts. Here we use a fossil pollen record from a regularly patterned ribbon forest (alternating bands of forests and meadows) in Colorado to examine whether past changes in wildfire and climate produced abrupt vegetation shifts. Comparing the percentages of conifer pollen with sedimentary δ 18 O data (interpreted as an indicator of temperature or snow accumulation) indicates a first-order linear relationship between vegetation composition and climate change with no detectable lags over the past 2,500 yr (r = 0.55, P < 0.001). Additionally, however, we find that the vegetation changed abruptly within a century of extensive wildfires, which were recognized in a previous study to have burned approximately 80% of the surrounding 1,000 km 2 landscape 1,000 yr ago when temperatures rose ~0.5°C. The vegetation change was larger than expected from the effects of climate change alone. Pollen assemblages changed from a composition associated with closed subalpine forests to one similar to modern ribbon forests. Fossil pollen assemblages then remained like those from modern ribbon forests for the following ~1,000 yr, providing a clear example of how extensive disturbances can trigger persistent new vegetation states and alter how vegetation responds to climate. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Global Warming.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hileman, Bette

    1989-01-01

    States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

  20. Multiple Glass Transitions and Freezing Events of Aqueous Citric Acid

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Calorimetric and optical cryo-microscope measurements of 10–64 wt % citric acid (CA) solutions subjected to moderate (3 K/min) and slow (0.5 and 0.1 K/min) cooling/warming rates and also to quenching/moderate warming between 320 and 133 K are presented. Depending on solution concentration and cooling rate, the obtained thermograms show one freezing event and from one to three liquid–glass transitions upon cooling and from one to six liquid–glass and reverse glass–liquid transitions, one or two freezing events, and one melting event upon warming of frozen/glassy CA/H2O. The multiple freezing events and glass transitions pertain to the mother CA/H2O solution itself and two freeze-concentrated solution regions, FCS1 and FCS2, of different concentrations. The FCS1 and FCS2 (or FCS22) are formed during the freezing of CA/H2O upon cooling and/or during the freezing upon warming of partly glassy or entirely glassy mother CA/H2O. The formation of two FCS1 and FCS22 regions during the freezing upon warming to our best knowledge has never been reported before. Using an optical cryo-microscope, we are able to observe the formation of a continuous ice framework (IF) and its morphology and reciprocal distribution of IF/(FCS1 + FCS2). Our results provide a new look at the freezing and glass transition behavior of aqueous solutions and can be used for the optimization of lyophilization and freezing of foods and biopharmaceutical formulations, among many other applications where freezing plays a crucial role. PMID:25482069

  1. The problem of latent attentional capture: Easy visual search conceals capture by task-irrelevant abrupt onsets.

    PubMed

    Gaspelin, Nicholas; Ruthruff, Eric; Lien, Mei-Ching

    2016-08-01

    Researchers are sharply divided regarding whether irrelevant abrupt onsets capture spatial attention. Numerous studies report that they do and a roughly equal number report that they do not. This puzzle has inspired numerous attempts at reconciliation, none gaining general acceptance. The authors propose that abrupt onsets routinely capture attention, but the size of observed capture effects depends critically on how long attention dwells on distractor items which, in turn, depends critically on search difficulty. In a series of spatial cuing experiments, the authors show that irrelevant abrupt onsets produce robust capture effects when visual search is difficult, but not when search is easy. Critically, this effect occurs even when search difficulty varies randomly across trials, preventing any strategic adjustments of the attentional set that could modulate probability of capture by the onset cue. The authors argue that easy visual search provides an insensitive test for stimulus-driven capture by abrupt onsets: even though onsets truly capture attention, the effects of capture can be latent. This observation helps to explain previous failures to find capture by onsets, nearly all of which used an easy visual search. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. The Problem of Latent Attentional Capture: Easy Visual Search Conceals Capture by Task-Irrelevant Abrupt Onsets

    PubMed Central

    Gaspelin, Nicholas; Ruthruff, Eric; Lien, Mei-Ching

    2016-01-01

    Researchers are sharply divided regarding whether irrelevant abrupt onsets capture spatial attention. Numerous studies report that they do and a roughly equal number report that they do not. This puzzle has inspired numerous attempts at reconciliation, none gaining general acceptance. We propose that abrupt onsets routinely capture attention, but the size of observed capture effects depends critically on how long attention dwells on distractor items which, in turn, depends critically on search difficulty. In a series of spatial cuing experiments, we show that irrelevant abrupt onsets produce robust capture effects when visual search is difficult, but not when search is easy. Critically, this effect occurs even when search difficulty varies randomly across trials, preventing any strategic adjustments of the attentional set that could modulate probability of capture by the onset cue. We argue that easy visual search provides an insensitive test for stimulus-driven capture by abrupt onsets: even though onsets truly capture attention, the effects of capture can be latent. This observation helps to explain previous failures to find capture by onsets, nearly all of which employed an easy visual search. PMID:26854530

  3. Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?

    PubMed

    Zell, Roland; Krumbholz, Andi; Wutzler, Peter

    2008-12-01

    Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking--at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and 'global change' that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.

  4. A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006-2007

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin

    2018-06-01

    Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006-2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10-20 and ≥20 mm h-1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.

  5. Changes in "hotter and wetter" events across China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, C.; Deng, H.; Lu, Y.; Qiu, X.; Wang, D.

    2017-12-01

    As global warming intensifies, efforts to understand the changes in extreme climate events have increased in recent years. A combined analysis of the changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events is presented in this paper. Using observational data from 1961 to 2015, a set of hotter and wetter (HW) events is defined, and we examine the changes in these events across China. The results show that more HW events occur in Central and Eastern China than in other subregions, especially in South China (SC). The rate of increase in HW events is 2.7 and 1.9 per decade in SC and East China (EC), respectively. In China, most HW events occurred in the last 20 years of the study period, indicating that China entered a period of high-frequency HW events. Indeed, the range in anomalies in the torrential rain days is greater than that of the high-temperature days in Northwest China (NWC), Central China (CC), and EC after the mid- to late 1990s. The opposite pattern is found in Northeast China (NEC), Southwest China-region 1 (SWC1), Southwest China-region 2 (SWC2), and SC. Finally, the increase in HW events in most regions of China is closely associated with warming.

  6. Abrupt strategy change underlies gradual performance change: Bayesian hierarchical models of component and aggregate strategy use.

    PubMed

    Wynton, Sarah K A; Anglim, Jeromy

    2017-10-01

    While researchers have often sought to understand the learning curve in terms of multiple component processes, few studies have measured and mathematically modeled these processes on a complex task. In particular, there remains a need to reconcile how abrupt changes in strategy use can co-occur with gradual changes in task completion time. Thus, the current study aimed to assess the degree to which strategy change was abrupt or gradual, and whether strategy aggregation could partially explain gradual performance change. It also aimed to show how Bayesian methods could be used to model the effect of practice on strategy use. To achieve these aims, 162 participants completed 15 blocks of practice on a complex computer-based task-the Wynton-Anglim booking (WAB) task. The task allowed for multiple component strategies (i.e., memory retrieval, information reduction, and insight) that could also be aggregated to a global measure of strategy use. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to compare abrupt and gradual functions of component and aggregate strategy use. Task completion time was well-modeled by a power function, and global strategy use explained substantial variance in performance. Change in component strategy use tended to be abrupt, whereas change in global strategy use was gradual and well-modeled by a power function. Thus, differential timing of component strategy shifts leads to gradual changes in overall strategy efficiency, and this provides one reason for why smooth learning curves can co-occur with abrupt changes in strategy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Consecutive record-breaking high temperatures marked the handover from hiatus to accelerated warming

    PubMed Central

    Su, Jingzhi; Zhang, Renhe; Wang, Huijun

    2017-01-01

    Closely following the hiatus warming period, two astonishing high temperature records reached in 2014 and 2015 consecutively. To investigate the occurrence features of record-breaking high temperatures in recent years, a new index focusing the frequency of the top 10 high annual mean temperatures was defined in this study. Analyses based on this index shown that record-breaking high temperatures occurred over most regions of the globe with a salient increasing trend after 1960 s, even during the so-called hiatus period. Overlapped on the ongoing background warming trend and the interdecadal climate variabilities, the El Niño events, particularly the strong ones, can make a significant contribution to the occurrence of high temperatures on interannual timescale. High temperatures associated with El Niño events mainly occurred during the winter annual period. As the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) struggled back to its positive phase since 2014, the global warming returned back to a new accelerated warming period, marked by the record-breaking high temperatures in 2014. Intensified by the super strong El Niño, successive high records occurred in 2015 and 2016. Higher frequencies of record high temperatures would occur in the near future because the PDO tends to maintain a continuously positive phase. PMID:28256561

  8. Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community

    PubMed Central

    Alatalo, Juha M.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity PMID:26888225

  9. The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2016-09-01

    Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

  10. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  11. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  12. A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horton, Radley M.; Mankin, Justin S.; Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; Raymond, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

  13. Efficient Warm-ups: Creating a Warm-up That Works.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lauffenburger, Sandra Kay

    1992-01-01

    Proper warm-up is important for any activity, but designing an effective warm-up can be time consuming. An alternative approach is to take a cue from Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) and consider movement design from the perspective of space and planes of motion. Efficient warm-up exercises using LMA are described. (SM)

  14. Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

    2017-02-01

    Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

  15. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

    PubMed

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-07

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  16. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

    PubMed

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-20

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  17. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

  18. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  19. Mesospheric signatures observed during 2010 minor stratospheric warming at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Hong, Junseok; Kim, Jeong-Han; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Chandran, A.; Rao, S. V. B.; Riggin, Dennis

    2016-03-01

    A minor stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. Among the three warming events, the signature of mesosphere response was detected only for the September event in the mesospheric wind dataset from both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W) and Rothera (68°S, 68°W), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW event, as has been observed in the 2002 major SSW. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with stratospheric warmings are found in temperatures measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Simulations of specified dynamics version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) are able to reproduce these observed features. The mesospheric wind field was found to differ significantly from that of normal years probably due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSW. From the wavelet analysis of wind data of both stations, we find that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere. Our study provides evidence that minor SSWs in SH can result in significant effects on the mesospheric dynamics as in the northern hemisphere.

  20. Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der

    2016-09-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

  1. Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015-2016.

    PubMed

    Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A; Schrier, Gerard van der

    2016-09-08

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.

  2. Global Implications of late Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinctions in the Holarctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, Alan; Turney, Chris

    2017-04-01

    Improved resolution data from radiocarbon, climate and ancient DNA studies of megafauna and humans is providing the first ability to disentangle the roles of climate change and human impact in the Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions. In the Holarctic we find that megafaunal populations underwent repeated local or global extinctions apparently associated with abrupt, centennial to millennial duration warming events (Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials). Importantly, the extinction events took place both before and after the arrival of modern humans in the landscape. Here we look at the possible role of human activity in Holarctic and suggest it may be through the disruption of metapopulation processes which stabilize ecosystems and may have evolved to provide resilience to rapid and frequent climate shifts in the past. The observed relationship between climate and humans on megafaunal populations may provide a model for global extinction. Fortunately in this regard, the rapid movement of the first Native Americans throughout both American continents during the Last Deglaciation provides a powerful and unique model system for testing the competing roles on extinction because the opposing climate trends in each hemisphere at the time. Here we show that while megafaunal extinctions were associated with warming trends in both cases, the out-of-phase climate patterns caused the sequence and timing of events to be mirrored, providing a unique high-resolution view of the interactions of human colonization and rapid climate change on megafaunal ecosystems, with implications for future warming scenarios. References: Cooper, A., Turney, C., Hughen, K.A., Brook, B.W., McDonald, H.G., Bradshaw, C.J.A., 2015. Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover. Science 349, 602-606. Metcalf, J.L., Turney, C., Barnett, R., Martin, F., Bray, S.C., Vilstrup, J.T., Orlando, L., Salas-Gismondi, R., Loponte, D., Medina, M., De Nigris, M., Civalero, T., Fern

  3. Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

  4. The Role of African Dust in Atlantic Climate During Heinrich Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, L. N.; Goes, M.; Clement, A. C.

    2017-11-01

    Increased ice discharge in the North Atlantic is thought to cause a weakening, or collapse, of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during Heinrich events. Paleoclimate records indicate that these periods were marked by severe tropical aridity and dustiness. Although the driver of these events is still under debate, large freshwater input is necessary for climate models to simulate the magnitude, geographical extent, and abruptness of these events, indicating that they may be missing feedbacks. We hypothesize that the dust-climate feedback is one such feedback that has not been previously considered. Here we analyze the role of dust-climate feedbacks on the AMOC by parameterizing the dust radiative effects in an intermediate complexity model and consider uncertainties due to wind stress forcing and the magnitude of both atmospheric dust loading and freshwater hosing. We simulate both stable and unstable AMOC regimes by changing the prescribed wind stress forcing. In the unstable regime, additional dust loading during Heinrich events cools and freshens the North Atlantic and abruptly reduces the AMOC by 20% relative to a control simulation. In the stable regime, however, additional dust forcing alone does not alter the AMOC strength. Including both freshwater and dust forcing results in a cooling of the subtropical North Atlantic more comparable to proxy records than with freshwater forcing alone. We conclude that dust-climate feedbacks may provide amplification to Heinrich cooling by further weakening AMOC and increasing North Atlantic sea ice coverage.

  5. Solar Forced Dansgaard/Oeschger Events?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muscheler, R.; Beer, J.

    2006-01-01

    Climate records for the last ice age (which ended 11,500 years ago) show enormous climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic region - the so-called Dansgaard/Oeschger events. During these events air temperatures in Greenland changed on the order of 10 degrees Celsius within a few decades. These changes were attributed to shifts in ocean circulation which influences the warm water supply from lower latitudes to the North Atlantic region. Interestingly, the rapid warmings tend to recur approximately every 1500 years or multiples thereof. This has led researchers to speculate about an external cause for these changes with the variable Sun being one possible candidate. Support for this hypothesis came from climate reconstructions, which suggested that the Sun influenced the climate in the North Atlantic region on these time scales during the last approximately 12,000 years of relatively stable Holocene climate. However, Be-10 measurements in ice cores do not indicate that the Sun caused or triggered the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Depending on the solar magnetic shielding more or less Be-10 is produced in the Earth's atmosphere. Therefore, 10Be can be used as a proxy for solar activity changes. Since Be-10 can be measured in ice cores, it is possible to compare the variable solar forcing directly with the climate record from the same ice core. This removes any uncertainties in the relative dating, and the solar-climate link can be reliably studied. Notwithstanding that some Dansgaard/Oeschger warmings could be related to increased solar activity, there is no indication that this is the case for all of the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Therefore, during the last ice age the Be-10 and ice core climate data do not indicate a persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate.

  6. Stratospheric Sudden Warming Effects on the Upper Thermosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamazaki, Y.; Kosch, M. J.; Emmert, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    It has been controversial whether a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event has any measurable impact on the upper thermosphere. In this study, we use long-term records of the global average thermospheric total mass density derived from satellite orbital decay data during 1967-2013. This enables, for the first time, a statistical investigation of the thermospheric density response to SSW events. A superposed epoch analysis of 37 SSW events reveals a density reduction of 3-7% at 250-575 km around the time of polar vortex weakening. The temperature perturbation is estimated to be -7.0 K at 400 km. We suggest enhanced wave forcing from the lower atmosphere as a possible cause for the density reduction observed during SSWs.

  7. Subtropical tropospheric wave forcing of planetary wave 2 in the prephase of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in January 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, D. H. W.; Schneidereit, A.; Grams, C. M.; Quinting, J. F.; Keller, J. H.; Wolf, G. A.; Teubler, F.; Riemer, M.; Romppainen-Martius, O.

    2017-12-01

    Tropospheric forcing of planetary wavenumber 2 is examined in the prephase of the major stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009 (MSSW 2009). Because of a huge increase in Eliassen-Palm fluxes induced mainly by wavenumber 2, easterly angular momentum is transported into the Arctic stratosphere, deposited, and then decelerates the polar night jet. In agreement with earlier studies, the results reveal that the strongest eddy heat fluxes, associated with wavenumber 2, occur at 100hPa during the prephase of MSSW 2009 in ERA-Interim. In addition, moderate conditions of the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña) contribute to the eddy heat flux anomaly. It is shown that enhanced tropospheric wave forcing over Alaska and Scandinavia is caused by tropical processes in two ways. First, in a climatological sense, La Niña contributes to an enhanced anticyclonic flow over both regions. Second, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has an indirect influence on the Alaskan ridge by enhancing eddy activity over the North Pacific. This is manifested in an increase in cyclone frequency and associated warm conveyor belt outflow, which contribute to the maintenance and amplification of the Alaskan anticyclone. The Scandinavian ridge is maintained by wave trains emanating from the Alaskan ridge propagating eastward, including an enhanced transport of eddy kinetic energy. The MSSW2009 is an extraordinary case of how a beneficial phasing of La Niña and MJO conditions together with multi scale interactions enhances tropospheric forcing for wavenumber 2-induced zonal mean eddy heat flux in the lower stratosphere.

  8. Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.

    2010-01-01

    Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.

  9. Warm partner contact is related to lower cardiovascular reactivity.

    PubMed

    Grewen, Karen M; Anderson, Bobbi J; Girdler, Susan S; Light, Kathleen C

    2003-01-01

    The authors investigated the relationship between brief warm social and physical contact among cohabitating couples and blood pressure (BP) reactivity to stress in a sample of healthy adults (66 African American, 117 Caucasian; 74 women, 109 men). Prior to stress, the warm contact group underwent a 10-minute period of handholding while viewing a romantic video. Followed by a 20-second hug with their partner, while the no contact group rested quietly for 10 minutes and 20 seconds. In response to a public speaking task, individuals receiving prestress partner contact demonstrated lower systolic BP diastolic BP, and heart rate increases compared with the no contact group. The effects of warm contact were comparable for men and women and were greater for African Americans compared with Caucasians. These findings suggest that affectionate relationships with a supportive partner may contribute to lower reactivity to stressful life events and may partially mediate the benefit of marital support on better cardiovascular health.

  10. The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. The origins of the anomalous warming in the California coastal ocean and San Francisco Bay during 2014-2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chao, Yi; Farrara, John D.; Bjorkstedt, Eric; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco; Rudnick, Daniel L.; Enright, Wendy; Fisher, Jennifer L.; Peterson, William T.; Welch, Gregory F.; Davis, Curtiss O.; Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.; Zhang, Hongchun; Zhang, Yinglong; Ateljevich, Eli

    2017-09-01

    During 2014 exceptionally warm water temperatures developed across a wide area off the California coast and within San Francisco Bay (SFB) and persisted into 2016. Observations and numerical model output are used to document this warming and determine its origins. The coastal warming was mostly confined to the upper 100 m of the ocean and was manifested strongly in the two leading modes of upper ocean (0-100 m) temperature variability in the extratropical eastern Pacific. Observations suggest that the coastal warming in 2014 propagated into nearshore regions from the west while later indicating a warming influence that propagated from south to north into the region associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event. An analysis of the upper ocean (0-100 m) heat budget in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulation confirmed this scenario. The results from a set of sensitivity runs with the model in which the lateral boundary conditions varied supported the conclusions drawn from the heat budget analysis. Concerning the warming in the SFB, an examination of the observations and the heat budget in an unstructured-grid numerical model simulation suggested that the warming during the second half of 2014 and early 2016 originated in the adjacent California coastal ocean and propagated through the Golden Gate into the Bay. The finding that the coastal and Bay warming are due to the relatively slow propagation of signals from remote sources raises the possibility that such warming events may be predictable many months or even several seasons in advance.

  12. Elevated CO2 further lengthens growing season under warming conditions.

    PubMed

    Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; Trlica, M J; McMaster, Gregory S; Andales, Allan A; LeCain, Dan R; Morgan, Jack A

    2014-06-12

    Observations of a longer growing season through earlier plant growth in temperate to polar regions have been thought to be a response to climate warming. However, data from experimental warming studies indicate that many species that initiate leaf growth and flowering earlier also reach seed maturation and senesce earlier, shortening their active and reproductive periods. A conceptual model to explain this apparent contradiction, and an analysis of the effect of elevated CO2--which can delay annual life cycle events--on changing season length, have not been tested. Here we show that experimental warming in a temperate grassland led to a longer growing season through earlier leaf emergence by the first species to leaf, often a grass, and constant or delayed senescence by other species that were the last to senesce, supporting the conceptual model. Elevated CO2 further extended growing, but not reproductive, season length in the warmed grassland by conserving water, which enabled most species to remain active longer. Our results suggest that a longer growing season, especially in years or biomes where water is a limiting factor, is not due to warming alone, but also to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations that extend the active period of plant annual life cycles.

  13. Tunable thulium-doped fiber laser based on an abrupt-tapered in-fiber interferometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández-Arriaga, M. V.; Durán-Sánchez, M.; Ibarra-Escamilla, B.; Álvarez-Tamayo, R. I.; Santiago-Hernández, H.; Bello-Jiménez, M.; Kuzin, E. A.

    2017-11-01

    An experimental study of an all-fiber tunable thulium-doped fiber laser based on an abrupt-tapered in-fiber interferometer is presented. A microfiber filter with length of 6 mm and diameter of 20 μm is used to achieve single laser wavelength tuning in a range of 19.4 nm and dual-wavelength laser operation at 1761.8 and 1793.4 nm with a channel spacing of 31.6 nm. The abrupt-tapered structure allows multi-modal interference at the air-cladding interface. The proposed in-fiber interferometer exhibits characteristics of low cost and simple fabrication, making it suitable for practical applications in wavelength filtering and wavelength selection in all-fiber lasers.

  14. Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-05-09

    using observational and reanalysis products , respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to...warming and cooling in these studies . SST is observed to maximize just ahead of MJO convection. After convection begins, SST rapidly cools and reaches a...minimum ~5 days later. However, several studies have observed a certain class of MJO events that deviate from the previously observed relationship of

  15. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  16. Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

  17. Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

    PubMed

    Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

    2015-06-01

    Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    PubMed

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-03-11

    Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

  19. Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World's Coral Reefs 1985-2012.

    PubMed

    Heron, Scott F; Maynard, Jeffrey A; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C Mark

    2016-12-06

    Coral reefs across the world's oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world's reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the 'winter' reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.

  20. Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

  1. Phytoplankton Community Structure in 2011-2013 Compared to the Extratropical Warming Event of 2014-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, X.; Peterson, W. T.

    2018-02-01

    Coastal waters of the Northern California Current experienced "normal" ocean conditions in 2011-2012, weak upwelling in 2013-2014, then suddenly warmed in September 2014. The response of phytoplankton community structure to contrasting ocean conditions was determined from samples collected off Newport, Oregon. Cluster analysis identified three prominent phytoplankton community types: one that occurred during the upwelling season characterized by the highest abundance and diversity of diatoms, a preupwelling/relaxation community characterized by lower abundance, lowest diversity of diatoms and dinoflagellates, and another one associated with the warm anomalies from September 2014 through 2015 with reduced diatom abundance and diversity but the highest dinoflagellate diversity. The changes of diatom and dinoflagellate community were correlated with local factors (silicate, silicate: nitrate ratios, temperature, and salinity), and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  2. Examining the contribution of the observed global warming trend to the California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Daithi Stone,

    2014-01-01

    While the SST trend mode has resulted in large SST increases that appear associated with an equatorial precipitation dipole response contrasting increases over the western Pacific and decreases over the central Pacific, the location of most of this warming is to the west of the key sensitivity areas identified in our CMIP5 composite. Removing this warming did not increase the CAM5 precipitation over California in a statistically significant manner, thus there appears to be little evidence that this long term warming trend contributed substantially to the 2013 and 2014 drought events. This result appears consistent with the lack of a long term downward trend in California precipitation. California precipitation does appear to be sensitive to north Pacific SST, and climate change models indicate substantial warming. If SST events like the unprecedented 2014 north Pacific SST anomaly become more common, California could also experience more frequent droughts. In addition, given the strong thermal control on evaporation, snowmelt, and water resources in California, the long-term warming is continuing to exert a growing stress on water availability.

  3. Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016

    PubMed Central

    Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard van der

    2016-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events. PMID:27604976

  4. Middle East coastal ecosystem response to middle-to-late Holocene abrupt climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Kaniewski, D.; Paulissen, E.; Van Campo, E.; Al-Maqdissi, M.; Bretschneider, J.; Van Lerberghe, K.

    2008-01-01

    The Holocene vegetation history of the northern coastal Arabian Peninsula is of long-standing interest, as this Mediterranean/semiarid/arid region is known to be particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Detailed palynological data from an 800-cm alluvial sequence cored in the Jableh plain in northwest Syria have been used to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the coastal lowlands and the nearby Jabal an Nuşayriyah mountains for the period 2150 to 550 B.C. Corresponding with the 4.2 to 3.9 and 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP abrupt climate changes (ACCs), two large-scale shifts to a more arid climate have been recorded. These two ACCs had different impacts on the vegetation assemblages in coastal Syria. The 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC is drier and lasted longer than the 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC, and is characterized by the development of a warm steppe pollen-derived biome (1100–800 B.C.) and a peak of hot desert pollen-derived biome at 900 B.C. The 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC is characterized by a xerophytic woods and shrubs pollen-derived biome ca. 2050 B.C. The impact of the 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC on human occupation and cultural development is important along the Syrian coast with the destruction of Ugarit and the collapse of the Ugarit kingdom at ca. 1190 to 1185 B.C. PMID:18772385

  5. King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.

    PubMed

    Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

    2008-02-19

    Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

  6. Dissociating the capture of attention from saccade activation by subliminal abrupt onsets.

    PubMed

    Schoeberl, Tobias; Ansorge, Ulrich

    2017-10-01

    Attentional capture and effects on saccade metrics by subliminal abrupt onset cues have been studied with peripheral cues at one out of several (two to four) display locations, swiftly followed by additional onsets at the other display locations. The lead time of the cue was too short to be seen. Here, we were interested in whether such subliminal onset cues influenced saccades primarily by way of attention or by way of direct saccade activation. In separate blocks, participants made speeded pro-saccades towards a black target or anti-saccades away from the target. Prior to the targets, an abrupt onset cue was presented either at the same side as the target (valid condition) or at the opposite side (invalid condition). If cues influenced performance by way of attentional capture, we expected facilitation of target processing in valid compared to invalid conditions (cueing effect) in the pro- as well as in the anti-saccade task. If the cues activated saccades in their direction, we expected the cueing effect to drop in the anti-saccade task compared to the pro-saccade task because in the anti-saccade task the invalid cue would activate the finally required response, whereas the valid cue would activate the alternative response, leading to interference. Results were in line with the former of these possibilities suggesting that subliminal abrupt onsets influenced saccades by way of attention with no or little direct activation of saccades.

  7. Paleoecological evidence for abrupt cold reversals during peak Holocene warmth on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Axford, Yarrow; Briner, Jason P.; Miller, Gifford H.; Francis, Donna R.

    2009-03-01

    A continuous record of insect (Chironomidae) remains preserved in lake sediments is used to infer temperature changes at a small lake in Arctic Canada through the Holocene. Early Holocene summers at the study site were characterized by more thermophilous assemblages and warmer inferred temperatures than today, presumably in response to the positive anomaly in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Peak early Holocene warmth was interrupted by two cold reversals between 9.5 and 8 cal ka BP, during which multiple cold-stenothermous chironomid taxa appeared in the lake. The earlier reversal appears to correlate with widespread climate anomalies around 9.2 cal ka BP; the age of the younger reversal is equivocal but it may correlate with the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event documented elsewhere. Widespread, abrupt climate shifts in the early Holocene illustrate the susceptibility of the climate system to perturbations, even during periods of enhanced warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.

  8. Differential response of corals to regional mass-warming events as evident from skeletal Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, Harry; D'Olivo, Juan Pablo; Falter, James; Zinke, Jens; Lowe, Ryan; McCulloch, Malcolm

    2017-05-01

    During the summer of 2010/2011, a regional marine heat wave resulted in coral bleaching of variable severity along much of the western coastline of Australia. At Ningaloo Reef, a 300 km long fringing reef system and World Heritage site, highly contrasting coral bleaching was observed between two morphologically distinct nearshore reef communities located on either side of the Ningaloo Peninsula: Tantabiddi (˜20% bleaching) and Bundegi (˜90% bleaching). For this study, we collected coral cores (Porites sp.) from Tantabiddi and Bundegi reef sites to assess the response of the Sr/Ca temperature proxy and Mg/Ca ratios to the variable levels of thermal stress imposed at these two sites during the 2010/2011 warming event. We found that there was an anomalous increase in Sr/Ca and decrease in Mg/Ca ratios in the Bundegi record that was coincident with the timing of severe coral bleaching at the site, while no significant changes were observed in the Tantabiddi record. We show that the change in the relationship of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios with temperature at Bundegi during the 2010/2011 event reflects changes in related coral "vital" processes during periods of environmental stress. These changes were found to be consistent with a reduction in active transport of Ca2+ to the site of calcification leading to a reduction in calcification rates and reduced Rayleigh fractionation of incorporated trace elements.

  9. Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

    2018-02-01

    We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

  10. Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.

    The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

  11. Warm tropical ocean surface and global anoxia during the mid-Cretaceous period.

    PubMed

    Wilson, P A; Norris, R D

    2001-07-26

    The middle of the Cretaceous period (about 120 to 80 Myr ago) was a time of unusually warm polar temperatures, repeated reef-drowning in the tropics and a series of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) that promoted both the widespread deposition of organic-carbon-rich marine sediments and high biological turnover. The cause of the warm temperatures is unproven but widely attributed to high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. In contrast, there is no consensus on the climatic causes and effects of the OAEs, with both high biological productivity and ocean 'stagnation' being invoked as the cause of ocean anoxia. Here we show, using stable isotope records from multiple species of well-preserved foraminifera, that the thermal structure of surface waters in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean underwent pronounced variability about 100 Myr ago, with maximum sea surface temperatures 3-5 degrees C warmer than today. This variability culminated in a collapse of upper-ocean stratification during OAE-1d (the 'Breistroffer' event), a globally significant period of organic-carbon burial that we show to have fundamental, stratigraphically valuable, geochemical similarities to the main OAEs of the Mesozoic era. Our records are consistent with greenhouse forcing being responsible for the warm temperatures, but are inconsistent both with explanations for OAEs based on ocean stagnation, and with the traditional view (reviewed in ref. 12) that past warm periods were more stable than today's climate.

  12. Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F; Fisher, Joshua B; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Desai, Ankur R; Richardson, Andrew D; Scott, Russell L; Law, Beverly E; Litvak, Marcy E; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Peters, Wouter; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T

    2016-05-24

    The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.

  13. Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

    PubMed Central

    Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Scott, Russell L.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Peters, Wouter

    2016-01-01

    The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. PMID:27114518

  14. Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

    DOE PAGES

    Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; ...

    2016-04-25

    The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

  15. Prolonged warm ischemia time is associated with graft failure and mortality after kidney transplantation.

    PubMed

    Tennankore, Karthik K; Kim, S Joseph; Alwayn, Ian P J; Kiberd, Bryce A

    2016-03-01

    Warm ischemia time is a potentially modifiable insult to transplanted kidneys, but little is known about its effect on long-term outcomes. Here we conducted a study of United States kidney transplant recipients (years 2000-2013) to determine the association between warm ischemia time (the time from organ removal from cold storage to reperfusion with warm blood) and death/graft failure. Times under 10 minutes were potentially attributed to coding error. Therefore, the 10-to-under-20-minute interval was chosen as the reference group. The primary outcome was mortality and graft failure (return to chronic dialysis or preemptive retransplantation) adjusted for recipient, donor, immunologic, and surgical factors. The study included 131,677 patients with 35,901 events. Relative to the reference patients, times of 10 to under 20, 20 to under 30, 30 to under 40, 40 to under 50, 50 to under 60, and 60 and more minutes were associated with hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.15), 1.13 (1.06-1.22), 1.17 (1.09-1.26), 1.20 (1.12-1.30), and 1.23 (1.15-1.33) for the composite event, respectively. Association between prolonged warm ischemia time and death/graft failure persisted after stratification by donor type (living vs. deceased donor) and delayed graft function status. Thus, warm ischemia time is associated with adverse long-term patient and graft survival after kidney transplantation. Identifying strategies to reduce warm ischemia time is an important consideration for future study. Copyright © 2015 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Could gradual changes in Holocene Saharan landscape have caused the observed abrupt shift in North Atlantic dust deposition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Egerer, Sabine; Claussen, Martin; Reick, Christian; Stanelle, Tanja

    2017-09-01

    The abrupt change in North Atlantic dust deposition found in sediment records has been associated with a rapid large scale transition of Holocene Saharan landscape. We hypothesize that gradual changes in the landscape may have caused this abrupt shift in dust deposition either because of the non-linearity in dust activation or because of the heterogeneous distribution of major dust sources. To test this hypothesis, we investigate the response of North Atlantic dust deposition to a prescribed 1) gradual and spatially homogeneous decrease and 2) gradual southward retreat of North African vegetation and lakes during the Holocene using the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. In our simulations, we do not find evidence of an abrupt increase in dust deposition as observed in marine sediment records along the Northwest African margin. We conclude that such gradual changes in landscape are not sufficient to explain the observed abrupt changes in dust accumulation in marine sediment records. Instead, our results point to a rapid large-scale retreat of vegetation and lakes in the area of significant dust sources.

  17. Climate warming, euxinia and carbon isotope perturbations during the Carnian (Triassic) Crisis in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Y. D.; Wignall, P. B.; Joachimski, M. M.; Bond, D. P. G.; Grasby, S. E.; Lai, X. L.; Wang, L. N.; Zhang, Z. T.; Sun, S.

    2016-06-01

    The Carnian Humid Episode (CHE), also known as the Carnian Pluvial Event, and associated biotic changes are major enigmas of the Mesozoic record in western Tethys. We show that the CHE also occurred in eastern Tethys (South China), suggestive of a much more widespread and probably global climate perturbation. Oxygen isotope records from conodont apatite indicate a double-pulse warming event. The CHE coincided with an initial warming of 4 °C. This was followed by a transient cooling period and then a prolonged ∼7 °C warming in the later Carnian (Tuvalian 2). Carbon isotope perturbations associated with the CHE of western Tethys occurred contemporaneously in South China, and mark the start of a prolonged period of carbon cycle instability that persisted until the late Carnian. The dry-wet transition during the CHE coincides with the negative carbon isotope excursion and the temperature rise, pointing to an intensification of hydrologic cycle activities due to climatic warming. While carbonate platform shutdown in western Tethys is associated with an influx of siliciclastic sediment, the eastern Tethyan carbonate platforms are overlain by deep-water anoxic facies. The transition from oxygenated to euxinic facies was via a condensed, manganiferous carbonate (MnO content up to 15.1 wt%), that records an intense Mn shuttle operating in the basin. Significant siliciclastic influx in South China only occurred after the CHE climatic changes and was probably due to foreland basin development at the onset of the Indosinian Orogeny. The mid-Carnian biotic crisis thus coincided with several phenomena associated with major extinction events: a carbonate production crisis, climate warming, δ13 C oscillations, marine anoxia, biotic turnover and flood basalt eruptions (of the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province).

  18. Warming of intravenous and irrigation fluids for preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Gillian; Alderson, Phil; Smith, Andrew F; Warttig, Sheryl

    2015-04-13

    Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia (a drop in core temperature to below 36°C) occurs because of interference with normal temperature regulation by anaesthetic drugs, exposure of skin for prolonged periods and receipt of large volumes of intravenous and irrigation fluids. If the temperature of these fluids is below core body temperature, they can cause significant heat loss. Warming intravenous and irrigation fluids to core body temperature or above might prevent some of this heat loss and subsequent hypothermia. To estimate the effectiveness of preoperative or intraoperative warming, or both, of intravenous and irrigation fluids in preventing perioperative hypothermia and its complications during surgery in adults. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2014, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid SP (1956 to 4 February 2014), EMBASE Ovid SP (1982 to 4 February 2014), the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (1950 to 4 February 2014), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) EBSCOhost (1980 to 4 February 2014) and reference lists of identified articles. We also searched the Current Controlled Trials website and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials or quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing fluid warming methods versus standard care or versus other warming methods used to maintain normothermia. Two review authors independently extracted data from eligible trials and settled disputes with a third review author. We contacted study authors to ask for additional details when needed. We collected data on adverse events only if they were reported in the trials. We included in this review 24 studies with a total of 1250 participants. The trials included various numbers and types of participants. Investigators used a range of methods to warm fluids to temperatures between 37°C and 41°C. We found that evidence was of moderate quality because descriptions of trial design were

  19. Characterizing the Disk of a Recent Massive Collisional Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Inseok

    2015-10-01

    Debris disks play a key role in the formation and evolution of planetary systems. On rare occasions, circumstellar material appears as strictly warm infrared excess in regions of expected terrestrial planet formation and so present an interesting opportunity for the study of terrestrial planetary regions. There are only a few known cases of extreme, warm, dusty disks which lack any colder outer component including BD+20 307, HD 172555, EF Cha, and HD 23514. We have recently found a new system TYC 8830-410-1 belonging to this rare group. Warm dust grains are extremely short-lived, and the extraordinary amount of warm dust near these stars can only be plausibly explainable by a recent (or on-going) massive transient event such as the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) or plantary collisions. LHB-like events are seen generally in a system with a dominant cold disk, however, warm dust only systems show no hint of a massive cold disk. Planetary collisions leave a telltale sign of strange mid-IR spectral feature such as silica and we want to fully characterize the spectral shape of the newly found system with SOFIA/FORCAST. With SOFIA/FORCAST, we propose to obtain two narrow band photometric measurements between 6 and 9 microns. These FORCAST photometric measurements will constrain the amount and temperature of the warm disk in the system. There are less than a handful systems with a strong hint of recent planetary collisions. With the firmly constrained warm disk around TYC 8830-410-1, we will publish the discovery in a leading astronomical journal accompanied with a potential press release through SOFIA.

  20. Warm-Up Exercises May Not Be So Important for Enhancing Submaximal Running Performance.

    PubMed

    Takizawa, Kazuki; Yamaguchi, Taichi; Shibata, Keisuke

    2018-05-01

    Takizawa, K, Yamaguchi, T, and Shibata, K. Warm-up exercises may not be so important for enhancing submaximal running performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(5): 1383-1390, 2018-The purpose of this study was to determine an appropriate warm-up intensity for enhancing performance in submaximal running at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max (it assumes 3,000-5,000 m in track events). Seven trained male university athletes took part in this study (age: 21.3 ± 2.1 years, height: 169.3 ± 4.7 cm, body mass: 58.4 ± 5.6 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 73.33 ± 5.46 ml·kg·min). Each subject ran on a treadmill at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max until exhaustion after 1 of 4 warm-up treatments. The 4 warm-up treatments were no warm-up, 15 minutes running at 60% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, at 70% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, and at 80% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max. The running performance was evaluated by time to exhaustion (TTE). V[Combining Dot Above]O2, and vastus lateralis muscle temperature were also measured. There were no significant differences in TTE among the warm-up exercises (p > 0.05). V[Combining Dot Above]O2 in no warm-up showed slower reaction than the other warm-up exercises. Regarding, the vastus lateralis muscle temperature immediately after warm-up, no warm-up was significantly (p < 0.01) lower compared with the other warm-up exercises. Our results suggested that submaximal running performance was not affected by the presence or absence of a warm-up or by warm-up intensity, although physiological changes occurred.

  1. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  2. Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

    PubMed

    Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2013-02-01

    Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important

  3. Eastern Tropical Pacific Precipitation Response to Zonal SPCZ events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durán-Quesada, A. M.; Lintner, B. R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme El Niño events and warming conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific have been linked to pronounced spatial displacements of the South Pacific Convergence Zone known as "zonal SPCZ" events.. Using a global dataset of Lagrangian back trajectories computed with the FLEXPART model for the period 1980-2013, comprehensive analysis of the 3D circulation characteristics associated with the SPCZ is undertaken. Ten days history of along-trajectory specific humidity, potential vorticity and temperature are reconstructed for zonal SPCZ events as well as other states,, with differences related to El Niño intensity and development stage as well as the state of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool. How zonal events influence precipitation over the Eastern Tropical Pacific is examined using back trajectories, reanalysis, TRMM precipitation, and additional satellite derived cloud information. It is found that SPCZ displacements are associated with enhanced convection over the Eastern Tropical Pacific in good agreement with prior work. The connection between intensification of precipitation over the eastern Tropical Pacific during zonal events and suppression of rainfall over the Maritime continent is also described.

  4. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

    2018-04-01

    Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

  5. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2014-01-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions

  6. Elucidating Dynamical Processes Relevant to Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT) Bo Qiu Dept of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa 1000 Pope Rd. Honolulu, HI 96822 phone: (808) 956...c) to explore relevant dynamics by using both simplified models and OGCM output with realistic topography and surface boundary conditions...scale abyssal circulation, we propose to use the Hallberg Isopycnal Model (HIM). The HIM allows sloping isopycnals to interact with bottom topography

  7. Influence of January 2009 stratospheric warming on HF radio wave propagation in the low-latitude ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotova, Darya; Klimenko, Maksim; Klimenko, Vladimir; Zaharov, Veniamin; Bessarab, Fedor; Korenkov, Yuriy

    2016-12-01

    We have considered the influence of the January 23-27, 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event on HF radio wave propagation in the equatorial ionosphere. This event took place during extremely low solar and geomagnetic activity. We use the simulation results obtained with the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) for simulating environmental changes during the SSW event. We both qualitatively and quantitatively reproduced total electron content disturbances obtained from global ground network receiver observations of GPS navigation satellite signals, by setting an additional electric potential and TIME-GCM model output at a height of 80 km. In order to study the influence of this SSW event on HF radio wave propagation and attenuation, we used the numerical model of radio wave propagation based on geometrical optics approximation. It is shown that the sudden stratospheric warming leads to radio signal attenuation and deterioration of radio communication in the daytime equatorial ionosphere.

  8. Bend-imitating models of abruptly bent electron waveguides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vakhnenko, Oleksiy O.

    2011-07-01

    The fundamentals of bend-imitating approach regarding the one-electron quantum mechanics in abruptly bent ideal electron waveguides are given. In general, the theory allows to model each particular circularlike bend of a continuous quantum wire as some effective multichannel scatterer being pointlike in longitudinal direction. Its scattering ability is determined by the bending angle, mean bending radius, lateral coordinate (or coordinates) in wire cross section, time (or electronic energy), and possibly by the applied magnetic field. In an equivalent formulation, the theory gives rise to rather simple matching rules for the electron wave function and its longitudinal derivative affecting only the straight parts of a wire and thereby permitting to bypass a detailed quantum mechanical consideration of elbow domains. The proposed technique is applicable for the analytical investigation of spectral and transport electronic properties related to the ideal abruptly bent 3D wirelike structures of fixed cross section and is adaptable to the 2D wirelike structures as well as to the wirelike structures subjected to the magnetic field perpendicular to the plane of wire bending. In the framework of bend-imitating approach, the investigation of electron scattering in a singly bent 2D quantum wire and a doubly bent 2D quantum wire with S-like bend has been made and the explicit dependences of transmission and reflection coefficients on geometrical parameters of respective structure as well as on electron energy have been obtained. The total suppression of mixing between the scattering channels of S-like bent quantum wire is predicted.

  9. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  10. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    PubMed

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-16

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  11. Salinity changes and anoxia resulting from enhanced run-off during the late Permian global warming and mass extinction event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Soelen, Elsbeth E.; Twitchett, Richard J.; Kürschner, Wolfram M.

    2018-04-01

    explained by increased run-off. High amounts of both terrestrial and marine organic fragments in the first anoxic layers suggest that high run-off, increased nutrient availability, possibly in combination with soil erosion, are responsible for the development of anoxia in the basin. Enhanced run-off could result from changes in the hydrological cycle during the late Permian extinction event, which is a likely consequence of global warming. In addition, vegetation destruction and soil erosion may also have resulted in enhanced run-off. Salinity stratification could potentially explain the development of anoxia in other shallow marine sites. The input of freshwater and related changes in coastal salinity could also have implications for the interpretation of oxygen isotope records and seawater temperature reconstructions at some sites.

  12. Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark

    2016-12-01

    Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.

  13. Direct generation of abruptly focusing vortex beams using a 3/2 radial phase-only pattern.

    PubMed

    Davis, Jeffrey A; Cottrell, Don M; Zinn, Jonathan M

    2013-03-20

    Abruptly focusing Airy beams have previously been generated using a radial cubic phase pattern that represents the Fourier transform of the Airy beam. The Fourier transform of this pattern is formed using a system length of 2f, where f is the focal length of the Fourier transform lens. In this work, we directly generate these abruptly focusing Airy beams using a 3/2 radial phase pattern encoded onto a liquid crystal display. The resulting optical system is much shorter. In addition, we can easily produce vortex patterns at the focal point of these beams. Experimental results match theoretical predictions.

  14. Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

    2015-09-23

    The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a "climate hiatus" of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1-100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101-300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301-700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701-1500 m has experienced significant warming.

  15. West African monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad

    PubMed Central

    Armitage, Simon J.; Bristow, Charlie S.; Drake, Nick A.

    2015-01-01

    From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world’s greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent. PMID:26124133

  16. Placenta previa and placental abruption after assisted reproductive technology in patients with endometriosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Gasparri, Maria Luisa; Nirgianakis, Konstantinos; Taghavi, Katayoun; Papadia, Andrea; Mueller, Michael D

    2018-07-01

    Recent evidence suggests that assisted reproductive technology (ART) increases the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including placental disorders. Similarly, endometriosis resulted detrimental on placenta previa. However, up to 50% of women with endometriosis suffer from infertility, thus requiring ART. The aim of our metanalysis is to compare women with and without endometriosis undergoing ART in terms of placenta disorders events, to establish if ART itself or endometriosis, as an indication to ART, increases the risk of placenta previa. Literature searches were conducted in January 2018 using electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, Scopus, Embase, Science Direct, and the Cochrane Library Scopus). Series comparing pregnancy outcome after ART in women with and without endometriosis were screened and data on placenta previa and placental abruption were extracted. Five retrospective case-control studies met the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis revealed that endometriosis is associated with an increased risk of placenta previa in pregnancies achieved through ART (OR 2.96 (95% CI 1.25-7.03); p = 0.01, I 2  =69%, random-effect model). No differences in placental abruption incidence were found (OR 0.44 (95% CI 0.10-1.87); p = 0.26, I 2  = 0%, fixed-effect model). Patients with endometriosis undergoing ART may have additional risk of placenta previa. Despite the inability to determine if endometriosis alone or endometriosis plus ART increase the risk, physicians should be aware of the potential additional risk that endometriosis patients undergoing ART harbor.

  17. Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musselman, Keith N.; Molotch, Noah P.; Margulis, Steven A.

    2017-12-01

    In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 °C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (-10 % °C-1) consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles) to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

  18. Persistence of carbon release events through the peak of early Eocene global warmth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirtland Turner, Sandra; Sexton, Philip F.; Charles, Christopher D.; Norris, Richard D.

    2014-10-01

    The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (53-50 million years ago) was preceded by approximately six million years of progressive global warming. This warming was punctuated by a series of rapid hyperthermal warming events triggered by the release of greenhouse gases. Over these six million years, the carbon isotope record suggests that the events became more frequent but smaller in magnitude. This pattern has been suggested to reflect a thermodynamic threshold for carbon release that was more easily crossed as global temperature rose, combined with a decrease in the size of carbon reservoirs during extremely warm conditions. Here we present a continuous, 4.25-million-year-long record of the stable isotope composition of carbonate sediments from the equatorial Atlantic, spanning the peak of early Eocene global warmth. A composite of this and pre-existing records shows that the carbon isotope excursions that identify the hyperthermals exhibit continuity in magnitude and frequency throughout the approximately 10-million-year period covering the onset, peak and termination of the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. We suggest that the carbon cycle processes behind these events, excluding the largest event, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 56 million years ago), were not exceptional. Instead, we argue that the hyperthermals may reflect orbital forcing of the carbon cycle analogous to the mechanisms proposed to operate in the cooler Oligocene and Miocene.

  19. ENSO events in the northern Gulf of Alaska, and effects on selected marine fisheries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, K.M.; Macklin, S.A.; Reed, R.K.; Brodeur, R.D.; Ingraham, W.J.; Piatt, John F.; Shima, M.; Francis, R.C.; Anderson, P.J.; Royer, T.C.; Hollowed, A.; Somerton, D.A.; Wooster, W.S.

    1995-01-01

    The 1991-93 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event first appeared in the northern Gulf of Alaska in autumn 1991 with warm sea-surface temperatures. In winter 1992, there were pulses of increased sea level and anomalous circulation. El Nino conditions persisted at least through summer 1993. The effects of this ENSO event on major groundfish species and Pacific herring in the northern Gulf of Alaska were examined and compared with the effects of previous ENSO events. There is little evidence that the 1991-93 or 1982-83 ENSO events affected landings of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, Pacific halibut, or arrowtooth flounder. Some changes in distribution of groundfish species were observed in 1993, but the effect was similar to changes observed in non-ENSO warm years. In general, warm ocean conditions have a positive effect on recruitment of northern stocks, but ENSO events appear to have an inconsistent effect on year-class strength within species and among different species. For example, strong year classes of halibut and arrowtooth flounder sometimes, but not always, coincide with ENSO events; ENSO events are associated with moderate to weak year classes of cod and pollock. However, post-ENSO warm years often are associated with strong recruitment of many groundfish species. Major changes have occurred in the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem since 1977. The influence of the 1976 ENSO event in precipitating these changes and the role of the frequency or strength of subsequent El Nino events is presently unknown. Herring and other stocks of small pelagic fishes may be more affected by ENSO events. In particular, decreased catches, recruitment, and weight-at-age of herring are sometimes associated with ENSO events. Furthermore, a variety of seabirds which feed mostly on pelagic forage fishes or the pelagic juvenile stages of groundfish suffered widespread mortalities and breeding failures in the Gulf of Alaska during the ENSO years of 1983 and 1993. These effects on seabirds

  20. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    PubMed

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  1. Intensification of the Northeast Pacific oxygen minimum zone during the Bölling-Alleröd warm period

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zheng, Yen; van Geen, Alexander; Anderson, Robert F.; Gardner, James V.; Dean, Walter E.

    2000-01-01

    Although climate records from several locations around the world show nearly synchronous and abrupt changes, the nature of the inferred teleconnection is still poorly understood. On the basis of preserved laminations and molybdenum enrichments in open margin sediments we demonstrate that the oxygen content of northeast Pacific waters at 800 m depth during the Bölling-Alleröd warm period (15–13 kyr) was greatly reduced. Existing oxygen isotopic records of benthic and planktonic foraminifera suggest that this was probably due to suppressed ventilation at higher latitudes of the North Pacific. Comparison with ventilation records for the North Atlantic indicates an antiphased pattern of convection relative to the North Pacific over the past 22 kyr, perhaps due to variations in water vapor transport across Central America.

  2. The Arctic Grand Challenge: Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkniss, P. E.

    2003-12-01

    Trouble in polar paradise (Science, 08/30/02), significant changes in the Arctic environment are scientifically documented (R.E. Moritz et al. ibid.). More trouble, lots more, "abrupt climate change," (R. B. Alley, et al. Science 03/28/03). R. Corell, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team (ACIA), "If you want to see what will happen in the rest of the world 25 years from now just look what's happening in the Arctic," (Arctic Council meeting, Iceland, 08/03). What to do? Make abrupt Arctic climate change a grand challenge for the IPY-4 and beyond! Scientifically:Describe the "state" of the Arctic climate system as succinctly as possible and accept it as the point of departure.Develop a hypothesis and criteria what constitutes "abrupt climate change," in the Arctic that can be tested with observations. Observations: Bring to bear existing observations and coordinate new investments in observations through an IPY-4 scientific management committee. Make the new Barrow, Alaska, Global Climate Change Research Facility a major U.S. contribution and focal point for the IPY-4 in the U.S Arctic. Arctic populations, Native peoples: The people of the North are living already, daily, with wrenching change, encroaching on their habitats and cultures. For them "the earth is faster now," (I. Krupnik and D. Jolly, ARCUS, 2002). From a political, economic, social and entirely realistic perspective, an Arctic grand challenge without the total integration of the Native peoples in this effort cannot succeed. Therefore: Communications must be established, and the respective Native entities must be approached with the determination to create well founded, well functioning, enduring partnerships. In the U.S. Arctic, Barrow with its long history of involvement and active support of science and with the new global climate change research facility should be the focal point of choice Private industry: Resource extraction in the Arctic followed by oil and gas consumption, return the combustion

  3. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

  4. The effects of warmed intravenous fluids, combined warming (warmed intravenous fluids with humid-warm oxygen), and pethidine on the severity of shivering in general anesthesia patients in the recovery room

    PubMed Central

    Nasiri, Ahmad; Akbari, Ayob; Sharifzade, GholamReza; Derakhshan, Pooya

    2015-01-01

    Background: Shivering is a common complication of general and epidural anesthesia. Warming methods and many drugs are used for control of shivering in the recovery room. The present study is a randomized clinical trial aimed to investigate the effects of two interventions in comparison with pethidine which is the routine treatment on shivering in patients undergoing abdominal surgery with general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: Eighty-seven patients undergoing abdominal surgery by general anesthesia were randomly assigned to three groups (two intervention groups in comparison with pethidine as routine). Patients in warmed intravenous fluids group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C), patients in combined warming group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C) accompanied by humid-warm oxygen, and patients in pethidine group received intravenous pethidine routinely. The elapsed time of shivering and some hemodynamic parameters of the participants were assessed for 20 min postoperatively in the recovery room. Then the collected data were analyzed by software SPSS (v. 16) with the significance level being P < 0.05. Results: The mean of elapsed time in the warmed intravenous serum group, the combined warming group, and the pethidine group were 7 (1.5) min, 6 (1.5) min, and 2.8 (0.7) min, respectively, which was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The body temperatures in both combined warming and pethidine groups were increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Combined warming can be effective in controlling postoperative shivering and body temperature increase. PMID:26793258

  5. Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

  6. The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly in the Southern California Current - Physical and Biological Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ralf, G.

    2016-02-01

    The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly (WarmA) off Southern California manifested itself in the summer of 2014 as an anomalously warm surface layer in the Southern Calif. Bight with low concentrations of Chl a. This layer intensified in spatial extent, covering the entire CalCOFI surface area by the winter of 2015 with temperature anomalies 3 StDev larger than long-term averages. Concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and rates of primary production were extremely low during the WarmA. The evolution of the WarmA as well as the 2015/16 El Niño with time will be compared to the evolution of the weak and strong El Niño's observed over the last 60 years. These events provide unique insights in the controls of phytoplankton biomass and production in the southern California Current System. Preliminary analyses suggest that the response of the phytoplankton community to the WarmA was consistent with responses to similar forcing during the prior decade. This presentation is based on data collected during the quarterly CalCOFI cruises by the CalCOFI and the CCE-LTER groups.

  7. Increased frequency of ENSO-related hydroclimate extremes in a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Q.; Miao, C.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Global warming will likely alter surface warming in tropical Pacific regions, leading to changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics and an incresed frequency of extreme ENSO events. The ENSO-related climatic variation and associated impacts will likely be modified in a warmer climatic state. However, little is known about the effect of changes in ENSO teleconnections with regard to future dry and wet conditions over land around the globe, especially outside tropical regions. We used the model simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for different twenty-first-century emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to investigate the changes in the ENSO' teleconnection on dry/wet condition over global land. Our results show that 64.64% and 38.12% of 181 river basins studied are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of unusually wet/dry events forced by both ENSO phases under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The anomalous precipitation variability forced by ENSO events will be intensified through a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" mechanism over west North America, South America, central Asia, and west Asia. More than 850 million people are at risk of exposure to unusually dry/wet events. There is a potential increased risk of high-intensity dry/wet events, with an increase/decrease in the 50-year return level of SPI value for drying/wetting regions. These results have important implications for disaster evaluation and related policies and for appropriate engineering design.

  8. Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zoback, M.L.; Jachens, R.C.; Olson, J.A.

    1999-01-01

    Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the Mw = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ???470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate "fault-normal" compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (???10??) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ???15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a ML = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudo-gravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ???3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San

  9. An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lupo, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

  10. Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita

    2017-04-01

    Ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon (C), resulting in a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. The current generation of models assume that the temperature sensitivities of microbial processes do not respond to warming. However, recent studies have suggested that the ability of microbial communities to adapt to warming can lead both strengthened and weakened feedbacks. A further complication is that the balance between microbial C used for growth to that used for respiration - the microbial carbon-use efficiency (CUE) - also has been shown through both modelling and empirical study to respond to warming. In our study, we set out to assess how chronic warming (+5°C over ambient during 9 years) of a temperate hardwood forest floor (Harvard Forest LTER, USA) affected temperature sensitivities of microbial processes in soil. To do this, we first determined the temperature relationships for bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in plots exposed to warmed or ambient conditions. Secondly, we parametrised the established temperature functions microbial growth and respiration with plot-specific measured soil temperature data at a hourly time-resolution over the course of 3 years to estimate the real-time variation of in situ microbial C production and respiration. To estimate the microbial CUE, we also divided the microbial C production with the sum of microbial C production and respiration as a proxy for substrate use. We found that warm-adapted bacterial and fungal communities both shifted their temperature relationships to grow at higher rates in warm conditions which coincided with reduced rates at cool conditions. As such, their optimal temperature (Topt), minimum temperature (Tmin) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were all increased. The temperature relationship for temperature, in contrast, was only marginally shifted in the same direction, but at a much smaller effect size, with

  11. Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G.S.; Farmer, J.; Bauch, H.A.; Spielhagen, R.F.; Jakobsson, M.; Nilsson, J.; Briggs, W.M.; Stepanova, A.

    2012-01-01

    In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. The stability of the halocline through past climate variations is unclear. Here we estimate intermediate water temperatures over the past 50,000 years from the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca values of ostracods from 31 Arctic sediment cores. From about 50 to 11 kyr ago, the central Arctic Basin from 1,000 to 2,500 m was occupied by a water mass we call Glacial Arctic Intermediate Water. This water mass was 1–2 °C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water, with temperatures peaking during or just before millennial-scale Heinrich cold events and the Younger Dryas cold interval. We use numerical modelling to show that the intermediate depth warming could result from the expected decrease in the flux of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean during glacial conditions, which would cause the halocline to deepen and push the warm Atlantic Layer into intermediate depths. Although not modelled, the reduced formation of cold, deep waters due to the exposure of the Arctic continental shelf could also contribute to the intermediate depth warming.

  12. Abrupt lake-level changes in the Rocky Mountains and surrounding regions since the Last Glacial Maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shuman, B. N.; Serravezza, M.

    2016-12-01

    The paleohydrologic record of western North America since the last glacial maximum reveals a wide range of hydroclimatic variability and distinctive patterns associated with abrupt climate changes. To evaluate the sequence of abrupt hydroclimatic shifts and centennial-to-millennial hydrologic variability in western North America over the past 17 ka, we reconstruct lake-level histories from two high-elevation lakes in the Beartooth and Bighorn Mountains. The lakes represent the headwaters of the Missouri River drainage in northern Wyoming, but also have the potential to capture regional hydroclimate variability that links the northern Rocky Mountains to the mid-continent, Pacific Northwest, and the Great Basin. We first discuss the stratigraphic record of lake-level changes in small mid-latitude lakes and then use ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and sediment cores to track the elevations of shoreline sediments within the lakes through time. We compare the stratigraphies to the records from four other lakes in Wyoming and Colorado, and find widespread evidence for a Terminal Pleistocene Drought from 15-11 ka, an early Holocene humid period from 11-8 ka, and a period of severe mid-Holocene aridity from 8-5.7 ka. The northern Wyoming lakes also provide evidence of high levels before ca. 15 ka, including rapid hydroclimatic changes at ca. 16.8 ka during Heinrich Event 1. We place the changes in a broad context by summarizing and mapping water-level changes from 107 additional, previously studied lakes. Important patterns include 1) extensive drying across the western U.S. after 15 ka; 2) coherent sub-regional differences during the Younger Dryas and Pleistocene-Holocene transition; 3) a north-south contrast from 9-6 ka consistent with a northward shift in storm tracks as the influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet diminished; and 4) rapid increases in effective moisture across much of western North America from 6-4 ka.

  13. Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records.

    PubMed

    Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong

    2013-02-05

    The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07-0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend.

  14. Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records

    PubMed Central

    Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong

    2013-01-01

    The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07–0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend. PMID:23345448

  15. An Event-Based Approach to Distributed Diagnosis of Continuous Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhurry, Indranil; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon

    2010-01-01

    Distributed fault diagnosis solutions are becoming necessary due to the complexity of modern engineering systems, and the advent of smart sensors and computing elements. This paper presents a novel event-based approach for distributed diagnosis of abrupt parametric faults in continuous systems, based on a qualitative abstraction of measurement deviations from the nominal behavior. We systematically derive dynamic fault signatures expressed as event-based fault models. We develop a distributed diagnoser design algorithm that uses these models for designing local event-based diagnosers based on global diagnosability analysis. The local diagnosers each generate globally correct diagnosis results locally, without a centralized coordinator, and by communicating a minimal number of measurements between themselves. The proposed approach is applied to a multi-tank system, and results demonstrate a marked improvement in scalability compared to a centralized approach.

  16. Ice dynamics of Heinrich events: Insights and implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.

    2017-12-01

    Physical understanding of ice flow provides important constraints on Heinrich (H) events, which in turn provide lessons for ice dynamics and future sea-level change. Iceberg-rafted debris (IRD), the defining feature of H events, is a complex indicator; however, in cold climates with extensive marine-ending ice, increased IRD flux records ice-shelf loss. Ice shelves fed primarily by inflow from grounded ice experience net basal melting, giving sub-ice-sedimentation rather than open-ocean IRD. Ice-shelf loss has been observed recently in response to atmospheric warming increasing surface meltwater that wedged open crevasses (Larsen B), but also by break-off following thinning from warming of waters reaching the grounding line (Jakobshavn). The H events consistently occurred during cold times resulting from reduced North Atlantic overturning circulation ("conveyor"), but as argued by Marcott et al. (PNAS 2011), this was accompanied by delayed warming at grounding-line depths of the Hudson Strait ice stream, the source of the Heinrich layers, implicating oceanic control. As shown in a rich literature, additional considerations involving thermal state of the ice-stream bed, isostasy and probably other processes influenced why some reduced-conveyor events triggered H-events while others did not. Ice shelves, including the inferred Hudson Strait ice shelf, typically exist in high-salinity, cold waters produced by brine rejection from sea-ice formation, which are the coldest abundant waters in the world ocean. Thus, almost any change in air or ocean temperature, winds or currents can remove ice shelves, because "replacement" water masses are typically warmer. And, because ice shelves almost invariably slow flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, climatic perturbations to regions with ice shelves typically lead to sea-level rise, with important implications.

  17. Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stein, K.; McGregor, S.; Schneider, N.; England, M. H.; Lengaigne, M.; Cai, W.

    2012-12-01

    The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to Southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modeling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. A multi-model ensemble average of 21st century climate change projections from the current-generation of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) suggests a slightly wetter Southwest Pacific; however, inter-model uncertainty is greater than projected rainfall changes in the SPCZ region. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in the Southwest Pacific can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall while weaker SST gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward (see illustration) and promote summer drying in areas of the Southwest Pacific, similar to the response to strong El Niño events. Based on a multi-model ensemble of 55 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 2-3°C we estimate a 5% decrease of SPCZ rainfall, although uncertainty exceeds ±30% among CGCMs. For stronger tropical warming, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.; Illustration of the "warmest gets wetter" response to projected 21st century greenhouse warming. Green shading depicts observed (1982-2009) rainfall during DJF (contour interval: 2 mm/day; starting at 1 mm/day). Blue (red) contours depict warming less (more) than the tropical mean (42.5°N/S) 21st century multi-model trend (contour interval: 0.2°C; starting at ±0.1°C).

  18. Observations of Pronounced Greenland Ice Sheet Firn Warming and Implications for Runoff Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Polashenski, Chris; Courville, Zoe; Benson, Carl; Wagner, Anna; Chen, Justin; Wong, Gifford; Hawley, Robert; Hall, Dorothy

    2014-01-01

    Field measurements of shallow borehole temperatures in firn across the northern Greenland ice sheet are collected during May 2013. Sites first measured in 19521955 are revisited, showing long-term trends in firn temperature. Results indicate a pattern of substantial firn warming (up to +5.7C) at midlevel elevations (1400-2500 m) and little temperature change at high elevations (2500 m). We find that latent heat transport into the firn due to meltwater percolation drives the observed warming. Modeling shows that heat is stored at depth for several years, and energy delivered from consecutive melt events accumulates in the firn. The observed warming is likely not yet in equilibrium with recent melt production rates but captures the progression of sites in the percolation facies toward net runoff production.

  19. Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.

    PubMed

    Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S

    2012-02-28

    Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

  20. Climate variability and dengue fever in warm and humid Mexico.

    PubMed

    Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Bentham, Graham

    2011-05-01

    Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.

  1. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

    2014-11-01

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

  2. Warm up I: potential mechanisms and the effects of passive warm up on exercise performance.

    PubMed

    Bishop, David

    2003-01-01

    Despite limited scientific evidence supporting their effectiveness, warm-up routines prior to exercise are a well-accepted practice. The majority of the effects of warm up have been attributed to temperature-related mechanisms (e.g. decreased stiffness, increased nerve-conduction rate, altered force-velocity relationship, increased anaerobic energy provision and increased thermoregulatory strain), although non-temperature-related mechanisms have also been proposed (e.g. effects of acidaemia, elevation of baseline oxygen consumption (.VO(2)) and increased postactivation potentiation). It has also been hypothesised that warm up may have a number of psychological effects (e.g. increased preparedness). Warm-up techniques can be broadly classified into two major categories: passive warm up or active warm up. Passive warm up involves raising muscle or core temperature by some external means, while active warm up utilises exercise. Passive heating allows one to obtain the increase in muscle or core temperature achieved by active warm up without depleting energy substrates. Passive warm up, although not practical for most athletes, also allows one to test the hypothesis that many of the performance changes associated with active warm up can be largely attributed to temperature-related mechanisms.

  3. Contrasting Heat Budget Dynamics During Two La Niña Marine Heat Wave Events Along Northwestern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jiangtao; Lowe, Ryan J.; Ivey, Gregory N.; Jones, Nicole L.; Zhang, Zhenling

    2018-02-01

    Two marine heat wave events along Western Australia (WA) during the alternate austral summer periods of 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, both linked to La Niña conditions, severely impacted marine ecosystems over more than 12° of latitude, which included the unprecedented bleaching of many coral reefs. Although these two heat waves were forced by similar large-scale climate drivers, the warming patterns differed substantially between events. The central coast of WA (south of 22°S) experienced greater warming in 2010/2011, whereas the northwestern coast of WA experienced greater warming in 2012/2013. To investigate how oceanic and atmospheric heat exchange processes drove these different spatial patterns, an analysis of the ocean heat budget was conducted by integrating remote sensing observations, in situ mooring data, and a high-resolution (˜1 km) ocean circulation model (Regional Ocean Modeling System). The results revealed substantial spatial differences in the relative contributions made by heat advection and air-sea heat exchange between the two heat wave events. During 2010/2011, anomalous warming driven by heat advection was present throughout the region but was much stronger south of 22°S where the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current strengthens. During 2012/2013, air-sea heat exchange had a much more positive (warming) influence on sea surface temperatures (especially in the northwest), and when combined with a more positive contribution of heat advection in the north, this can explain the regional differences in warming between these two La Niña-associated marine heat wave events.

  4. Aerodynamic and acoustic effects of abrupt frequency changes in excised larynges.

    PubMed

    Alipour, Fariborz; Finnegan, Eileen M; Scherer, Ronald C

    2009-04-01

    To determine the aerodynamic and acoustic effects due to a sudden change from chest to falsetto register or vice versa. It was hypothesized that the continuous change in subglottal pressure and flow rate alone (pressure-flow sweep [PFS]) can trigger a mode change in the canine larynx. Ten canine larynges were each mounted over a tapered tube that supplied pressurized, heated, and humidified air. Glottographic signals were recorded during each PFS experiment, during which airflow was increased in a gradual manner for a period of 20-30 s. Abrupt changes in fundamental frequency (F(0)) and mode of vibration occurred during the PFS in the passive larynx without any change in adduction or elongation. The lower frequency mode of oscillation of the vocal folds, perceptually identified as the chest register, had relatively large amplitude oscillation, significant vocal fold contact, a rich spectral content, and a relatively loud audio signal. The higher frequency mode of oscillation, perceptually identified as falsetto, had little or no vocal fold contact and a dominant first partial. Relatively abrupt F(0) changes also occurred for gradual adduction changes, with the chest register corresponding to greater adduction, falsetto to less adduction.

  5. Warming shifts 'worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America.

    PubMed

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B

    2014-11-03

    Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

  6. More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming.

    PubMed

    Cai, Wenju; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Borlace, Simon; Collins, Matthew; Cowan, Tim; McPhaden, Michael J; Timmermann, Axel; Power, Scott; Brown, Josephine; Menkes, Christophe; Ngari, Arona; Vincent, Emmanuel M; Widlansky, Matthew J

    2012-08-16

    The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events--such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones--experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Niño events and southward during La Niña events. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing--by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator--and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.

  7. Abrupt Decline in Kidney Function Before Initiating Hemodialysis and All-Cause Mortality: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Raymond K; Chai, Boyang; Roy, Jason A; Anderson, Amanda H; Bansal, Nisha; Feldman, Harold I; Go, Alan S; He, Jiang; Horwitz, Edward J; Kusek, John W; Lash, James P; Ojo, Akinlolu; Sondheimer, James H; Townsend, Raymond R; Zhan, Min; Hsu, Chi-Yuan

    2016-08-01

    It is not clear whether the pattern of kidney function decline in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may relate to outcomes after reaching end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We hypothesize that an abrupt decline in kidney function prior to ESRD predicts early death after initiating maintenance hemodialysis therapy. Prospective cohort study. The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study enrolled men and women with mild to moderate CKD. For this study, we studied 661 individuals who developed chronic kidney failure that required hemodialysis therapy initiation. The primary predictor was the presence of an abrupt decline in kidney function prior to ESRD. We incorporated annual estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) into a mixed-effects model to estimate patient-specific eGFRs at 3 months prior to initiation of hemodialysis therapy. Abrupt decline was defined as having an extrapolated eGFR≥30mL/min/1.73m(2) at that time point. All-cause mortality within 1 year after initiating hemodialysis therapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards. Among 661 patients with CKD initiating hemodialysis therapy, 56 (8.5%) had an abrupt predialysis decline in kidney function and 69 died within 1 year after initiating hemodialysis therapy. After adjustment for demographics, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer, abrupt decline in kidney function was associated with a 3-fold higher risk for death within the first year of ESRD (adjusted HR, 3.09; 95% CI, 1.65-5.76). Relatively small number of outcomes; infrequent (yearly) eGFR determinations; lack of more granular clinical data. Abrupt decline in kidney function prior to ESRD occurred in a significant minority of incident hemodialysis patients and predicted early death in ESRD. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

    2015-01-01

    The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a “climate hiatus” of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1–100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101–300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301–700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701–1500 m has experienced significant warming. PMID:26394551

  9. The BTB-zinc Finger Transcription Factor Abrupt Acts as an Epithelial Oncogene in Drosophila melanogaster through Maintaining a Progenitor-like Cell State

    PubMed Central

    Turkel, Nezaket; Sahota, Virender K.; Bolden, Jessica E.; Goulding, Karen R.; Doggett, Karen; Willoughby, Lee F.; Blanco, Enrique; Martin-Blanco, Enrique; Corominas, Montserrat; Ellul, Jason; Aigaki, Toshiro; Richardson, Helena E.; Brumby, Anthony M.

    2013-01-01

    The capacity of tumour cells to maintain continual overgrowth potential has been linked to the commandeering of normal self-renewal pathways. Using an epithelial cancer model in Drosophila melanogaster, we carried out an overexpression screen for oncogenes capable of cooperating with the loss of the epithelial apico-basal cell polarity regulator, scribbled (scrib), and identified the cell fate regulator, Abrupt, a BTB-zinc finger protein. Abrupt overexpression alone is insufficient to transform cells, but in cooperation with scrib loss of function, Abrupt promotes the formation of massive tumours in the eye/antennal disc. The steroid hormone receptor coactivator, Taiman (a homologue of SRC3/AIB1), is known to associate with Abrupt, and Taiman overexpression also drives tumour formation in cooperation with the loss of Scrib. Expression arrays and ChIP-Seq indicates that Abrupt overexpression represses a large number of genes, including steroid hormone-response genes and multiple cell fate regulators, thereby maintaining cells within an epithelial progenitor-like state. The progenitor-like state is characterised by the failure to express the conserved Eyes absent/Dachshund regulatory complex in the eye disc, and in the antennal disc by the failure to express cell fate regulators that define the temporal elaboration of the appendage along the proximo-distal axis downstream of Distalless. Loss of scrib promotes cooperation with Abrupt through impaired Hippo signalling, which is required and sufficient for cooperative overgrowth with Abrupt, and JNK (Jun kinase) signalling, which is required for tumour cell migration/invasion but not overgrowth. These results thus identify a novel cooperating oncogene, identify mammalian family members of which are also known oncogenes, and demonstrate that epithelial tumours in Drosophila can be characterised by the maintenance of a progenitor-like state. PMID:23874226

  10. Abrupt treatments of hysteria during World War I, 1914-18.

    PubMed

    Macleod, Ad Sandy

    2018-06-01

    Case reports of the abrupt recovery of hysterical disorders during World War I (1914-18), though undoubtedly subject to publication bias, raise both aetiological and treatment issues regarding pseudo-neurological conversion symptoms. Published clinical anecdotes report circumstantial, psychotherapeutic, hypnotic, persuasive (and coercive) methods seemingly inducing recovery, and also responses to fright and alterations of consciousness. The ethics of modern medical practice would not allow many of these techniques, which were reported to be effective, even in the chronic cases.

  11. Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

  12. Effects on the equine colon ecosystem of grass silage and haylage diets after an abrupt change from hay.

    PubMed

    Muhonen, S; Julliand, V; Lindberg, J E; Bertilsson, J; Jansson, A

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of an abrupt change from grass hay (81% DM) to grass silage (36% DM) or grass haylage (55% DM), fed at similar DM intakes, and to compare the effects of silage and haylage on the composition and activities of the colon microflora. The forages were from the same swath harvested on the same day. Four adult colon-fistulated geldings were randomly assigned to diets in a crossover design. The study started with a preperiod when all 4 horses received the hay diet, followed by an abrupt feed change to the haylage diet for 2 horses and the silage diet for 2 horses. All 4 horses then had a new second preperiod of hay, followed by an abrupt feed change to the opposite haylage and silage diet. The periods were 21 d long, and the forage-only diets were supplemented with minerals and salt. The abrupt feed changes were made at 0800 h. Colon samples were taken before the abrupt feed change, 4 and 28 h after the feed change, and 8, 15, and 21 d after the feed change, all at 1200 h. Colon bacterial counts, VFA, pH, and DM concentrations were unchanged throughout the first 28 h after the abrupt feed change from hay to haylage and silage. Also, fecal pH and DM concentrations were unchanged during the first 28 h. During the weekly observations, colon lactobacilli counts increased (P = 0.023) in horses receiving the silage diet and were greater than on the haylage diet at 21 d. Streptococci counts decreased (P = 0.046) in horses receiving the haylage diet and were less than on the silage diet at 15 and 21 d. Total VFA concentrations and colon and fecal pH did not differ between diets and were unchanged throughout the weekly observations. The DM concentration of colon digesta and feces decreased (P = 0.030 and 0.049, respectively) on both diets during the weekly observations. The results suggest that in horses fed at the maintenance level of energy intake, an abrupt feed change from grass hay to grass silage or grass haylage from

  13. Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chiang, John C. H.; Wehner, Michael F.

    2012-10-29

    This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the linkmore » between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic

  14. Current Warm-Up Practices and Contemporary Issues Faced by Elite Swimming Coaches.

    PubMed

    McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Raglin, John S; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben

    2016-12-01

    McGowan, CJ, Pyne, DB, Raglin, JS, Thompson, KG, and Rattray, B. Current warm-up practices and contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches. J Strength Cond Res 30(12): 3471-3480, 2016-A better understanding of current swimming warm-up strategies is needed to improve their effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to describe current precompetition warm-up practices and identify contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches during competition. Forty-six state-international level swimming coaches provided information through a questionnaire on their prescription of volume, intensity, and recovery within their pool and dryland-based competition warm-ups, and challenges faced during the final stages of event preparation. Coaches identified four key objectives of the precompetition warm-up: physiological (elevate body temperature and increase muscle activation), kinesthetic (tactile preparation, increase "feel" of the water), tactical (race-pace rehearsal), and mental (improve focus, reduce anxiety). Pool warm-up volume ranged from ∼1300 to 2100 m, beginning with 400-1000 m of continuous, low-intensity (∼50-70% of perceived maximal exertion) swimming, followed by 200-600 m of stroke drills and 1-2 sets (100-400 m in length) of increasing intensity (∼60-90%) swimming, concluding with 3-4 race or near race-pace efforts (25-100 m; ∼90-100%) and 100-400 m easy swimming. Dryland-based warm-up exercises, involving stretch cords and skipping, were also commonly prescribed. Coaches preferred swimmers complete their warm-up 20-30 minutes before race start. Lengthy marshalling periods (15-20+ minutes) and the time required to don racing suits (>10 minutes) were identified as complicating issues. Coaches believed that the pool warm-up affords athletes the opportunity to gain a tactile feel for the water and surrounding pool environment. The combination of dryland-based activation exercises followed by pool-based warm-up routines seems to be the preferred

  15. Did Heinrich Events Impact Climate in the Southwest Pacific? - Evidence From New Zealand Speleothems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, T. E.; Hendy, C. H.; Hellstrom, J.

    2008-12-01

    Speleothems, layered calcium-carbonate cave deposits such as stalagmites, stalactites and flowstones, have been shown to offer much potential as paleoclimate archives. We present a new, high-resolution, independently-dated, paleoclimate record from a stalagmite which formed in Hollywood Cave (42.0°S, 171.5°E) on South Island, New Zealand. Over 700 stable oxygen and carbon isotope measurement pairs are supported by a chronology from 18 sequential 230Th dates. The stalagmite grew between 73 and 11 kyr B.P. Growth rates varied from ~1-54 mm/kyr and data resolution yields one sample per 10- 320 years. Weak covariance between δ13C and δ18O in the speleothem calcite suggests that recorded climate signals are primarily driven by mean annual precipitation amount and source. Both stable isotope proxies indicate relatively cold and dry conditions prevailed for much of the period 73-11 kyr B.P. However, abrupt-onset, millennial-scale shifts to wet and cool climate interrupt the dry conditions at 67.7-61, 56-55, 50.5-47.5, 40-39, 30.5-29, 25.5-24.3, 16.1-15, and 12.2-11.8 kyr B.P. Significantly, these eight abrupt climate changes occur synchronously with widely accepted ages for Heinrich events H6-H0 (including H5a). Many of these abrupt events can also be matched to known periods of glacier advance in the Southern Alps, New Zealand, which, arguably, were driven by increased mean annual precipitation and reduced potential for summer melting. In addition, preliminary stable isotope data (> 550 δ13C and δ18O pairs) from two North Island, New Zealand (~38°S), stalagmites will be shown that also displays abrupt shifts from relatively dry to wet climate during the period 60-6 kyr B.P. In combination, these results argue stongly for coeval climate changes in antipodean locations, and therefore provide compelling evidence for globally synchronous climate variability during the last glacial period.

  16. Evaluation of NASA GEOS-ADAS Modeled Diurnal Warming Through Comparisons to SEVIRI and AMSR2 SST Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.

    2018-02-01

    An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.

  17. Abrupt skin lesion border cutoff measurement for malignancy detection in dermoscopy images.

    PubMed

    Kaya, Sertan; Bayraktar, Mustafa; Kockara, Sinan; Mete, Mutlu; Halic, Tansel; Field, Halle E; Wong, Henry K

    2016-10-06

    Automated skin lesion border examination and analysis techniques have become an important field of research for distinguishing malignant pigmented lesions from benign lesions. An abrupt pigment pattern cutoff at the periphery of a skin lesion is one of the most important dermoscopic features for detection of neoplastic behavior. In current clinical setting, the lesion is divided into a virtual pie with eight sections. Each section is examined by a dermatologist for abrupt cutoff and scored accordingly, which can be tedious and subjective. This study introduces a novel approach to objectively quantify abruptness of pigment patterns along the lesion periphery. In the proposed approach, first, the skin lesion border is detected by the density based lesion border detection method. Second, the detected border is gradually scaled through vector operations. Then, along gradually scaled borders, pigment pattern homogeneities are calculated at different scales. Through this process, statistical texture features are extracted. Moreover, different color spaces are examined for the efficacy of texture analysis. The proposed method has been tested and validated on 100 (31 melanoma, 69 benign) dermoscopy images. Analyzed results indicate that proposed method is efficient on malignancy detection. More specifically, we obtained specificity of 0.96 and sensitivity of 0.86 for malignancy detection in a certain color space. The F-measure, harmonic mean of recall and precision, of the framework is reported as 0.87. The use of texture homogeneity along the periphery of the lesion border is an effective method to detect malignancy of the skin lesion in dermoscopy images. Among different color spaces tested, RGB color space's blue color channel is the most informative color channel to detect malignancy for skin lesions. That is followed by YCbCr color spaces Cr channel, and Cr is closely followed by the green color channel of RGB color space.

  18. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

    2018-01-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow melt equivalent decreases flood events in this region. Neglecting uncertainties originating from internal climate variability, downscaling technique, and hydrologic model parameters, the contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  19. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

    2017-12-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  20. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.