Sample records for absolute risk estimates

  1. Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

    2011-07-01

    We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

  2. Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

    PubMed Central

    Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

    2011-01-01

    We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

  3. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    PubMed Central

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  4. Anthropometric measures and absolute cardiovascular risk estimates in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Lei; Peeters, Anna; Magliano, Dianna J; Shaw, Jonathan E; Welborn, Timothy A; Wolfe, Rory; Zimmet, Paul Z; Tonkin, Andrew M

    2007-12-01

    Framingham risk functions are widely used for prediction of future cardiovascular disease events. They do not, however, include anthropometric measures of overweight or obesity, now considered a major cardiovascular disease risk factor. We aimed to establish the most appropriate anthropometric index and its optimal cutoff point for use as an ancillary measure in clinical practice when identifying people with increased absolute cardiovascular risk estimates. Analysis of a population-based, cross-sectional survey was carried out. The 1991 Framingham prediction equations were used to compute 5 and 10-year risks of cardiovascular or coronary heart disease in 7191 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (1999-2000). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare measures of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio in identifying participants estimated to be at 'high', or at 'intermediate or high' absolute risk. After adjustment for BMI and age, waist-to-hip ratio showed stronger correlation with absolute risk estimates than waist circumference. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for waist-to-hip ratio (0.67-0.70 in men, 0.64-0.74 in women) were greater than those for waist circumference (0.60-0.65, 0.59-0.71) or BMI (0.52-0.59, 0.53-0.66). The optimal cutoff points of BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio to predict people at 'high', or at 'intermediate or high' absolute risk estimates were 26 kg/m2, 95 cm and 0.90 in men, and 25-26 kg/m2, 80-85 cm and 0.80 in women, respectively. Measurement of waist-to-hip ratio is more useful than BMI or waist circumference in the identification of individuals estimated to be at increased risk for future primary cardiovascular events.

  5. Consistently estimating absolute risk difference when translating evidence to jurisdictions of interest.

    PubMed

    Eckermann, Simon; Coory, Michael; Willan, Andrew R

    2011-02-01

    Economic analysis and assessment of net clinical benefit often requires estimation of absolute risk difference (ARD) for binary outcomes (e.g. survival, response, disease progression) given baseline epidemiological risk in a jurisdiction of interest and trial evidence of treatment effects. Typically, the assumption is made that relative treatment effects are constant across baseline risk, in which case relative risk (RR) or odds ratios (OR) could be applied to estimate ARD. The objective of this article is to establish whether such use of RR or OR allows consistent estimates of ARD. ARD is calculated from alternative framing of effects (e.g. mortality vs survival) applying standard methods for translating evidence with RR and OR. For RR, the RR is applied to baseline risk in the jurisdiction to estimate treatment risk; for OR, the baseline risk is converted to odds, the OR applied and the resulting treatment odds converted back to risk. ARD is shown to be consistently estimated with OR but changes with framing of effects using RR wherever there is a treatment effect and epidemiological risk differs from trial risk. Additionally, in indirect comparisons, ARD is shown to be consistently estimated with OR, while calculation with RR allows inconsistency, with alternative framing of effects in the direction, let alone the extent, of ARD. OR ensures consistent calculation of ARD in translating evidence from trial settings and across trials in direct and indirect comparisons, avoiding inconsistencies from RR with alternative outcome framing and associated biases. These findings are critical for consistently translating evidence to inform economic analysis and assessment of net clinical benefit, as translation of evidence is proposed precisely where the advantages of OR over RR arise.

  6. Estimating the absolute wealth of households.

    PubMed

    Hruschka, Daniel J; Gerkey, Drew; Hadley, Craig

    2015-07-01

    To estimate the absolute wealth of households using data from demographic and health surveys. We developed a new metric, the absolute wealth estimate, based on the rank of each surveyed household according to its material assets and the assumed shape of the distribution of wealth among surveyed households. Using data from 156 demographic and health surveys in 66 countries, we calculated absolute wealth estimates for households. We validated the method by comparing the proportion of households defined as poor using our estimates with published World Bank poverty headcounts. We also compared the accuracy of absolute versus relative wealth estimates for the prediction of anthropometric measures. The median absolute wealth estimates of 1,403,186 households were 2056 international dollars per capita (interquartile range: 723-6103). The proportion of poor households based on absolute wealth estimates were strongly correlated with World Bank estimates of populations living on less than 2.00 United States dollars per capita per day (R(2)  = 0.84). Absolute wealth estimates were better predictors of anthropometric measures than relative wealth indexes. Absolute wealth estimates provide new opportunities for comparative research to assess the effects of economic resources on health and human capital, as well as the long-term health consequences of economic change and inequality.

  7. Estimating the absolute wealth of households

    PubMed Central

    Gerkey, Drew; Hadley, Craig

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective To estimate the absolute wealth of households using data from demographic and health surveys. Methods We developed a new metric, the absolute wealth estimate, based on the rank of each surveyed household according to its material assets and the assumed shape of the distribution of wealth among surveyed households. Using data from 156 demographic and health surveys in 66 countries, we calculated absolute wealth estimates for households. We validated the method by comparing the proportion of households defined as poor using our estimates with published World Bank poverty headcounts. We also compared the accuracy of absolute versus relative wealth estimates for the prediction of anthropometric measures. Findings The median absolute wealth estimates of 1 403 186 households were 2056 international dollars per capita (interquartile range: 723–6103). The proportion of poor households based on absolute wealth estimates were strongly correlated with World Bank estimates of populations living on less than 2.00 United States dollars per capita per day (R2 = 0.84). Absolute wealth estimates were better predictors of anthropometric measures than relative wealth indexes. Conclusion Absolute wealth estimates provide new opportunities for comparative research to assess the effects of economic resources on health and human capital, as well as the long-term health consequences of economic change and inequality. PMID:26170506

  8. The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Luai A; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjørnerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

    2009-01-01

    Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.

  9. Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

    1996-01-01

    Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

  10. Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women.

    PubMed

    Banegas, Matthew P; John, Esther M; Slattery, Martha L; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Hines, Lisa M; Thompson, Cynthia A; Gail, Mitchell H

    2017-02-01

    There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute's Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women's Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the

  11. Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women

    PubMed Central

    John, Esther M.; Slattery, Martha L.; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hines, Lisa M.; Thompson, Cynthia A.; Gail, Mitchell H.

    2017-01-01

    Background: There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. Methods: The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. Results: The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women’s Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. Conclusions: The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. PMID:28003316

  12. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDougall, T. J.; Jackett, D. R.; Millero, F. J.; Pawlowicz, R.; Barker, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater - 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density) than does Practical Salinity. When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic), Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg-1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p) in the world ocean. To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811). In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally).

  13. Absolute Risk Aversion and the Returns to Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brunello, Giorgio

    2002-01-01

    Uses 1995 Italian household income and wealth survey to measure individual absolute risk aversion of 1,583 married Italian male household heads. Uses this measure as an instrument for attained education in a standard-log earnings equation. Finds that the IV estimate of the marginal return to schooling is much higher than the ordinary least squares…

  14. Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

    PubMed

    Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2014-05-29

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

  15. Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners’ use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs’ descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. Results GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: ‘positive’, ‘scare tactic’, and ‘indirect’. A ‘positive’ strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A ‘scare tactic’ strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to ‘scare’ them into taking action. An ‘indirect’ strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. Conclusions This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment

  16. The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

    PubMed

    van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

    2014-02-01

    There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, p<0.0001) at group level. However, only 8.9% of those who sustained a fracture had an estimated fracture risk ≥20% using FRAX(®) compared with 53.3% using GARVAN-FRC. Although both underestimated the observed fracture risk, the GARVAN-FRC performed significantly better for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Carotid intima-media thickness and plaque in apparently healthy Japanese individuals with an estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD death according to the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines 2012: the Shiga Epidemiological Study of Subclinical Atherosclerosis (SESSA).

    PubMed

    Kadota, Aya; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okamura, Tomonori; Fujiyoshi, Akira; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Kadowaki, Takashi; Takashima, Naoyuki; Hisamatsu, Takashi; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Kashiwagi, Atsunori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2013-01-01

    To examine whether subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the categories in the 2012 atherosclerosis prevention guidelines proposed by the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS guidelines 2012), which adopted the estimated 10-year absolute risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) death in the NIPPON DATA80 Risk Assessment Chart. Between 2006 and 2008, 868 Japanese men 40 to 74 years of age without a history of cardiovascular disease were randomly selected from Kusatsu City, Japan. The intima media thickness (IMT) and plaque number from the common to internal carotid arteries were investigated using ultrasonography. The absolute risk of CAD death was estimated based on the individual risk factor data, and the mean IMT and plaque number in Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ of the guidelines were examined. The estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD was directly related to the IMT (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for a 10-year absolute risk of ≥ 2.0% and ≥ 5.0%: 0.88 ± 0.18 and 0.95 ± 0.19, respectively) and the plaque number. These results are compatible with the categories described by the guidelines (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ: 0.70 ± 0.11, 0.81 ± 0.16 and 0.88 ± 0.18, respectively; mean plaque number: 0.9, 2.1 and 3, respectively). These findings were similar for Category Ⅲ participants with or without DM and CKD. Subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the 10-year absolute risk of CAD and the categories in the JAS guidelines 2012.

  18. Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, R E; Weng, P S

    1987-08-01

    Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

  19. Reader variability in breast density estimation from full-field digital mammograms: the effect of image postprocessing on relative and absolute measures.

    PubMed

    Keller, Brad M; Nathan, Diane L; Gavenonis, Sara C; Chen, Jinbo; Conant, Emily F; Kontos, Despina

    2013-05-01

    Mammographic breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer, may be measured as either a relative percentage of dense (ie, radiopaque) breast tissue or as an absolute area from either raw (ie, "for processing") or vendor postprocessed (ie, "for presentation") digital mammograms. Given the increasing interest in the incorporation of mammographic density in breast cancer risk assessment, the purpose of this study is to determine the inherent reader variability in breast density assessment from raw and vendor-processed digital mammograms, because inconsistent estimates could to lead to misclassification of an individual woman's risk for breast cancer. Bilateral, mediolateral-oblique view, raw, and processed digital mammograms of 81 women were retrospectively collected for this study (N = 324 images). Mammographic percent density and absolute dense tissue area estimates for each image were obtained from two radiologists using a validated, interactive software tool. The variability of interreader agreement was not found to be affected by the image presentation style (ie, raw or processed, F-test: P > .5). Interreader estimates of relative and absolute breast density are strongly correlated (Pearson r > 0.84, P < .001) but systematically different (t-test, P < .001) between the two readers. Our results show that mammographic density may be assessed with equal reliability from either raw or vendor postprocessed images. Furthermore, our results suggest that the primary source of density variability comes from the subjectivity of the individual reader in assessing the absolute amount of dense tissue present in the breast, indicating the need to use standardized tools to mitigate this effect. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Ratio measures in leading medical journals: structured review of accessibility of underlying absolute risks

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Lisa M; Dvorin, Evan L; Welch, H Gilbert

    2006-01-01

    Objective To examine the accessibility of absolute risk in articles reporting ratio measures in leading medical journals. Design Structured review of abstracts presenting ratio measures. Setting Articles published between 1 June 2003 and 1 May 2004 in Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine. Participants 222 articles based on study designs in which absolute risks were directly calculable (61 randomised trials, 161 cohort studies). Main outcome measure Accessibility of the absolute risks underlying the first ratio measure in the abstract. Results 68% of articles (150/222) failed to report the underlying absolute risks for the first ratio measure in the abstract (range 55−81% across the journals). Among these articles, about half did report the underlying absolute risks elsewhere in the article (text, table, or figure) but half did not report them anywhere. Absolute risks were more likely to be reported in the abstract for randomised trials compared with cohort studies (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.1 to 4.2) and for studies reporting crude compared with adjusted ratio measures (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 2.1 to 4.3). Conclusion Absolute risks are often not easily accessible in articles reporting ratio measures and sometimes are missing altogether—this lack of accessibility can easily exaggerate readers' perceptions of benefit or harm. PMID:17060338

  1. Debiased estimates for NEO orbits, absolute magnitudes, and source regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granvik, Mikael; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jedicke, Robert; Bolin, Bryce T.; Bottke, William; Beshore, Edward C.; Vokrouhlicky, David; Nesvorny, David; Michel, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies on individual NEOs as well as on more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis (a), eccentricity (e), inclination (i), and absolute magnitude (H). We calibrate the model using NEO detections by the 703 and G96 stations of the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) during 2005-2012 corresponding to objects with 17absolute sense using the biases computed for CSS (Jedicke et al. 2016, Icarus 266, 173). The model makes use of six source regions or escape routes from the main asteroid belt as identified by Granvik et al. (2017, A&A 598, A52) in addition to Jupiter-family comets: Hungaria and Phocaea asteroids, and main-belt asteroids escaping through the ν6, 3:1J, 5:2J and 2:1J resonance complexes. We account for the destruction of asteroids with small perihelion distances (Granvik et al. 2016, Nature 530, 303) by fitting a penalty function in perihelion distance. Our model accurately reproduces the observed distribution of NEOs and the predicted numbers, particularly for the larger NEOs, are in agreement with other contemporary estimates. Our model also provides updated estimates for the likelihood of the various source regions and escape routes as a function of NEO (a,e,i,H) parameters. We present the model and its predictions, and discuss them in the context of other contemporary estimates.

  2. Perceived risk of tamoxifen side effects: a study of the use of absolute frequencies or frequency bands, with or without verbal descriptors.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Peter; Gardner, Peter H; Raynor, David K; Woolf, Elizabeth; McMillan, Brian

    2010-05-01

    To investigate the effectiveness of presenting medicine side effect risk information in different forms, including that proposed by UK guidelines [[1] Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Always read the leaflet-Getting the best information with every medicine. (Report of the Committee on Safety of Medicines Working Group on Patient Information). London: The Stationery Office, 2005.]. 134 Cancer Research UK (CRUK) website users were recruited via a 'pop-up'. Using a 2x2 factorial design, participants were randomly allocated to one of four conditions and asked to: imagine they had to take tamoxifen, estimate the risks of 4 side effects, and indicate a presentation mode preference. Those presented with absolute frequencies demonstrated greater accuracy in estimating 2 of 4 side effects, and of any side effect occurring, than those presented with frequency bands. Those presented with combined descriptors were more accurate at estimating the risk of pulmonary embolism than those presented with numeric descriptors only. Absolute frequencies outperform frequency bands when presenting side effect risk information. However, presenting such exact frequencies for every side effect may be much less digestible than all side effects listed under 5 frequency bands. Combined numerical and verbal descriptors may be better than numeric only descriptors when describing infrequent side effects. Information about side effects should be presented in ways that patients prefer, and which result in most accurate risk estimates. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Integrated Navigation System Design for Micro Planetary Rovers: Comparison of Absolute Heading Estimation Algorithms and Nonlinear Filtering

    PubMed Central

    Ilyas, Muhammad; Hong, Beomjin; Cho, Kuk; Baeg, Seung-Ho; Park, Sangdeok

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides algorithms to fuse relative and absolute microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) navigation sensors, suitable for micro planetary rovers, to provide a more accurate estimation of navigation information, specifically, attitude and position. Planetary rovers have extremely slow speed (~1 cm/s) and lack conventional navigation sensors/systems, hence the general methods of terrestrial navigation may not be applicable to these applications. While relative attitude and position can be tracked in a way similar to those for ground robots, absolute navigation information is hard to achieve on a remote celestial body, like Moon or Mars, in contrast to terrestrial applications. In this study, two absolute attitude estimation algorithms were developed and compared for accuracy and robustness. The estimated absolute attitude was fused with the relative attitude sensors in a framework of nonlinear filters. The nonlinear Extended Kalman filter (EKF) and Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) were compared in pursuit of better accuracy and reliability in this nonlinear estimation problem, using only on-board low cost MEMS sensors. Experimental results confirmed the viability of the proposed algorithms and the sensor suite, for low cost and low weight micro planetary rovers. It is demonstrated that integrating the relative and absolute navigation MEMS sensors reduces the navigation errors to the desired level. PMID:27223293

  4. Integrated Navigation System Design for Micro Planetary Rovers: Comparison of Absolute Heading Estimation Algorithms and Nonlinear Filtering.

    PubMed

    Ilyas, Muhammad; Hong, Beomjin; Cho, Kuk; Baeg, Seung-Ho; Park, Sangdeok

    2016-05-23

    This paper provides algorithms to fuse relative and absolute microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) navigation sensors, suitable for micro planetary rovers, to provide a more accurate estimation of navigation information, specifically, attitude and position. Planetary rovers have extremely slow speed (~1 cm/s) and lack conventional navigation sensors/systems, hence the general methods of terrestrial navigation may not be applicable to these applications. While relative attitude and position can be tracked in a way similar to those for ground robots, absolute navigation information is hard to achieve on a remote celestial body, like Moon or Mars, in contrast to terrestrial applications. In this study, two absolute attitude estimation algorithms were developed and compared for accuracy and robustness. The estimated absolute attitude was fused with the relative attitude sensors in a framework of nonlinear filters. The nonlinear Extended Kalman filter (EKF) and Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) were compared in pursuit of better accuracy and reliability in this nonlinear estimation problem, using only on-board low cost MEMS sensors. Experimental results confirmed the viability of the proposed algorithms and the sensor suite, for low cost and low weight micro planetary rovers. It is demonstrated that integrating the relative and absolute navigation MEMS sensors reduces the navigation errors to the desired level.

  5. Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

    PubMed

    van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

    2012-10-01

    Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

  6. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    PubMed Central

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  7. Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

    PubMed

    Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

    2016-11-01

    Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  8. Relative and absolute risks of all-cause and cause-specific deaths attributable to atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers.

    PubMed

    Ohsawa, Masaki; Okamura, Tomonori; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ogawa, Akira; Fujioka, Tomoaki; Tanno, Kozo; Yonekura, Yuki; Omama, Shinichi; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Morino, Yoshihiro; Itoh, Tomonori; Miyamatsu, Naomi; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Kuribayashi, Toru; Makita, Shinji; Yoshida, Yuki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Ohta, Mutsuko; Sakata, Kiyomi; Okayama, Akira

    2015-04-01

    The relative and absolute risks of outcomes other than all-cause death (ACD) attributable to atrial fibrillation (AF) stratified age have not been sufficiently investigated. A prospective study of 23,634 community dwellers aged 40 years or older without organic cardiovascular disease (AF=335, non-AF=23,299) was conducted. Multivariate-adjusted rates, rate ratios (RRs) and excess deaths (EDs) for ACD, cardiovascular death (CVD) and non-cardiovascular death (non-CVD), and sex- and age-adjusted RR and ED in middle-aged (40 to 69) and elderly (70 years or older) for ACD, CVD, non-CVD, sudden cardiac death (SCD), stroke-related death (Str-D), neoplasm-related death (NPD), and infection-related death (IFD) attributable to AF were estimated using Poisson regression. Multivariate-adjusted analysis revealed that AF significantly increased the risk of ACD (RR [95% confidence interval]:1.70 [1.23-2.95]) and CVD (3.86 [2.38-6.27]), but not non-CVD. Age-stratified analysis revealed that AF increased the risk of Str-D in middle-aged (14.5 [4.77-44.3]) and elderly individuals (4.92 [1.91-12.7]), SCD in elderly individuals (3.21 [1.37-7.51]), and might increase the risk of IFD in elderly individuals (2.02 [0.80-4.65], p=0.098). The RR of CVD was higher in middle-aged versus elderly individuals (RRs, 6.19 vs. 3.57) but the absolute risk difference was larger in elderly individuals (EDs: 7.6 vs. 3.0 per 1000 person-years). Larger absolute risk differences for ACD and CVD attributable to AF among elderly people indicate that the absolute burden of AF is higher in elderly versus middle-aged people despite the relatively small RR. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

    2016-10-01

    Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

    PubMed

    Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

    2015-09-19

    Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes

  11. Manifold absolute pressure estimation using neural network with hybrid training algorithm

    PubMed Central

    Selamat, Hazlina; Alimin, Ahmad Jais; Haniff, Mohamad Fadzli

    2017-01-01

    In a modern small gasoline engine fuel injection system, the load of the engine is estimated based on the measurement of the manifold absolute pressure (MAP) sensor, which took place in the intake manifold. This paper present a more economical approach on estimating the MAP by using only the measurements of the throttle position and engine speed, resulting in lower implementation cost. The estimation was done via two-stage multilayer feed-forward neural network by combining Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm, Bayesian Regularization (BR) algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Based on the results found in 20 runs, the second variant of the hybrid algorithm yields a better network performance than the first variant of hybrid algorithm, LM, LM with BR and PSO by estimating the MAP closely to the simulated MAP values. By using a valid experimental training data, the estimator network that trained with the second variant of the hybrid algorithm showed the best performance among other algorithms when used in an actual retrofit fuel injection system (RFIS). The performance of the estimator was also validated in steady-state and transient condition by showing a closer MAP estimation to the actual value. PMID:29190779

  12. Greater absolute risk for all subtypes of breast cancer in the US than Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Horne, Hisani N; Beena Devi, C R; Sung, Hyuna; Tang, Tieng Swee; Rosenberg, Philip S; Hewitt, Stephen M; Sherman, Mark E; Anderson, William F; Yang, Xiaohong R

    2015-01-01

    Hormone receptor (HR) negative breast cancers are relatively more common in low-risk than high-risk countries and/or populations. However, the absolute variations between these different populations are not well established given the limited number of cancer registries with incidence rate data by breast cancer subtype. We, therefore, used two unique population-based resources with molecular data to compare incidence rates for the 'intrinsic' breast cancer subtypes between a low-risk Asian population in Malaysia and high-risk non-Hispanic white population in the National Cancer Institute's surveillance, epidemiology, and end results 18 registries database (SEER 18). The intrinsic breast cancer subtypes were recapitulated with the joint expression of the HRs (estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2). Invasive breast cancer incidence rates overall were fivefold greater in SEER 18 than in Malaysia. The majority of breast cancers were HR-positive in SEER 18 and HR-negative in Malaysia. Notwithstanding the greater relative distribution for HR-negative cancers in Malaysia, there was a greater absolute risk for all subtypes in SEER 18; incidence rates were nearly 7-fold higher for HR-positive and 2-fold higher for HR-negative cancers in SEER 18. Despite the well-established relative breast cancer differences between low-risk and high-risk countries and/or populations, there was a greater absolute risk for HR-positive and HR-negative subtypes in the US than Malaysia. Additional analytical studies are sorely needed to determine the factors responsible for the elevated risk of all subtypes of breast cancer in high-risk countries like the United States.

  13. Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors - Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Little, Mark P; McElvenny, Damien M

    2017-02-01

    There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors - differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health

  14. Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

    2014-01-01

    Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

  15. Realized Volatility and Absolute Return Volatility: A Comparison Indicating Market Risk

    PubMed Central

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H. Eugene; Li, Baowen

    2014-01-01

    Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods. PMID:25054439

  16. Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women.

    PubMed

    Si, Lei; Winzenberg, Tania M; Chen, Mingsheng; Jiang, Qicheng; Palmer, Andrew J

    2015-06-01

    To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women. A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including fracture incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime fracture risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year fracture risks. We estimated the risk of only the first osteoporotic fracture during the simulation time horizon. The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) fracture for Chinese women aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3-44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For men, the residual lifetime and 10 year fracture risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5-9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime fracture risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year fracture risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the fracture risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical vertebral fracture risks were higher than those of hip and wrist fractures in both sexes. More than one third of the Chinese women and approximately one tenth of the Chinese men aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased fracture risks and a rapidly ageing population, osteoporosis will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidence rates were used, wrist fracture rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other fracture sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these

  17. Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

    PubMed

    Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

    2018-04-30

    The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors – Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. Objectives: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. Results: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. Conclusions: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and

  19. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  20. Self-Referenced Method for Estimating Refractive Index and Absolute Absorption of Loose Semiconductor Powders

    DOE PAGES

    Huang, Huafeng; Colabello, Diane M.; Sklute, Elizabeth C.; ...

    2017-04-23

    The absolute absorption coefficient, α(E), is a critical design parameter for devices using semiconductors for light harvesting associated with renewable energy production, both for classic technologies such as photovoltaics and for emerging technologies such as direct solar fuel production. While α(E) is well-known for many classic simple semiconductors used in photovoltaic applications, the absolute values of α(E) are typically unknown for the complex semiconductors being explored for solar fuel production due to the absence of single crystals or crystalline epitaxial films that are needed for conventional methods of determining α(E). In this work, a simple self-referenced method for estimating bothmore » the refractive indices, n(E), and absolute absorption coefficients, α(E), for loose powder samples using diffuse reflectance data is demonstrated. In this method, the sample refractive index can be deduced by refining n to maximize the agreement between the relative absorption spectrum calculated from bidirectional reflectance data (calculated through a Hapke transform which depends on n) and integrating sphere diffuse reflectance data (calculated through a Kubleka–Munk transform which does not depend on n). This new method can be quickly used to screen the suitability of emerging semiconductor systems for light-harvesting applications. The effectiveness of this approach is tested using the simple classic semiconductors Ge and Fe 2O 3 as well as the complex semiconductors La 2MoO 5 and La 4Mo 2O 11. The method is shown to work well for powders with a narrow size distribution (exemplified by Fe 2O 3) and to be ineffective for semiconductors with a broad size distribution (exemplified by Ge). As such, it provides a means for rapidly estimating the absolute optical properties of complex solids which are only available as loose powders.« less

  1. Absolute colorimetric characterization of a DSLR camera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guarnera, Giuseppe Claudio; Bianco, Simone; Schettini, Raimondo

    2014-03-01

    A simple but effective technique for absolute colorimetric camera characterization is proposed. It offers a large dynamic range requiring just a single, off-the-shelf target and a commonly available controllable light source for the characterization. The characterization task is broken down in two modules, respectively devoted to absolute luminance estimation and to colorimetric characterization matrix estimation. The characterized camera can be effectively used as a tele-colorimeter, giving an absolute estimation of the XYZ data in cd=m2. The user is only required to vary the f - number of the camera lens or the exposure time t, to better exploit the sensor dynamic range. The estimated absolute tristimulus values closely match the values measured by a professional spectro-radiometer.

  2. Practical calculation method to estimate the absolute boron concentration in tissues using 18F-FBPA PET.

    PubMed

    Watabe, Tadashi; Hanaoka, Kohei; Naka, Sadahiro; Kanai, Yasukazu; Ikeda, Hayato; Aoki, Masanao; Shimosegawa, Eku; Kirihata, Mitsunori; Hatazawa, Jun

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to establish a practical method to estimate the absolute boron concentrations in the tissues based on the standardized uptake values (SUVs) after administration of 4-borono-phenylalanine (BPA) using 4-borono-2- 18 F-fluoro-phenylalanine ( 18 F-FBPA) PET. Rat xenograft models of C6 glioma (n = 7, body weight 241 ± 28.0 g) were used for the study. PET was performed 60 min after intravenous injection of 18 F-FBPA (30.5 ± 0.7 MBq). After the PET scanning, BPA-fructose (167.3 ± 18.65 mg/kg) was administered by slow intravenous injection to the same subjects. The rats were killed 60 min after the BPA injection and tissue samples were collected from the major organs and tumors. The absolute boron concentrations (unit: ppm) in the samples were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The boron concentrations in the tissues/tumors were also estimated from the 18 F-FBPA PET images using the following formula: estimated absolute boron concentration (ppm) = 0.0478 × [BPA dose (mg/kg)] × SUV. The measured absolute boron concentrations (mBC) by ICP-OES and the estimated boron concentrations (eBC) from the PET images were compared. The percent difference between the mBC and eBC calculated based on the SUV max was -5.2 ± 21.1% for the blood, -9.4 ± 22.3% for the brain, 1.6 ± 21.3% for the liver, -14.3 ± 16.8% for the spleen, -9.5 ± 27.5% for the pancreas, and 3.4 ± 43.2% for the tumor. Relatively large underestimation was observed for the lung (-48.4 ± 16.2%), small intestine (-37.8 ± 19.3%) and large intestine (-33.9 ± 11.0%), due to the partial volume effect arising from the air or feces contained in these organs. In contrast, relatively large overestimation was observed for the kidney (34.3 ± 29.3%), due to the influence of the high uptake in urine. The absolute boron concentrations in tissues/tumors can be estimated from the SUVs on 18 F-FBPA PET using a

  3. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

    DOE PAGES

    Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

    2016-06-10

    There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

  4. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

    There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

  5. External validation of the Garvan nomograms for predicting absolute fracture risk: the Tromsø study.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Luai A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Joakimsen, Ragnar M; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Bliuc, Dana; Center, Jacqueline R; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V; Emaus, Nina

    2014-01-01

    Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort. The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance. The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture. The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction.

  6. External Validation of the Garvan Nomograms for Predicting Absolute Fracture Risk: The Tromsø Study

    PubMed Central

    Ahmed, Luai A.; Nguyen, Nguyen D.; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Joakimsen, Ragnar M.; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Bliuc, Dana; Center, Jacqueline R.; Eisman, John A.; Nguyen, Tuan V.; Emaus, Nina

    2014-01-01

    Background Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort. Methods The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance. Results The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture. Conclusions The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction. PMID:25255221

  7. Absolute and estimated values of macular pigment optical density in young and aged Asian participants with or without age-related macular degeneration.

    PubMed

    Ozawa, Yoko; Shigeno, Yuta; Nagai, Norihiro; Suzuki, Misa; Kurihara, Toshihide; Minami, Sakiko; Hirano, Eri; Shinoda, Hajime; Kobayashi, Saori; Tsubota, Kazuo

    2017-08-29

    Lutein and zeaxanthin are suggested micronutrient supplements to prevent the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness worldwide. To monitor the levels of lutein/zeaxanthin in the macula, macular pigment optical density (MPOD) is measured. A commercially available device (MPSII®, Elektron Technology, Switzerland), using technology based on heterochromatic flicker photometry, can measure both absolute and estimated values of MPOD. However, whether the estimated value is applicable to Asian individuals and/or AMD patients remains to be determined. The absolute and estimated values of MPOD were measured using the MPSII® device in 77 participants with a best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) > 0.099 (logMAR score). The studied eyes included 17 young (20-29 years) healthy, 26 aged (>50 years) healthy, 18 aged and AMD-fellow, and 16 aged AMD eyes. The mean BCVA among the groups were not significantly different. Both absolute and estimated values were measurable in all eyes of young healthy group. However, absolute values were measurable in only 57.7%, 66.7%, and 43.8%, of the aged healthy, AMD-fellow, and AMD groups, respectively, and 56.7% of the eyes included in the 3 aged groups. In contrast, the estimated value was measurable in 84.6%, 88.9% and 93.8% of the groups, respectively, and 88.3% of eyes in the pooled aged group. The estimated value was correlated with absolute value in individuals from all groups by Spearman's correlation coefficient analyses (young healthy: R 2  = 0.885, P = 0.0001; aged healthy: R 2  = 0.765, P = 0.001; AMD-fellow: R 2  = 0.851, P = 0.0001; and AMD: R 2  = 0.860, P = 0.013). Using the estimated value, significantly lower MPOD values were found in aged AMD-related eyes, which included both AMD-fellow and AMD eyes, compared with aged healthy eyes by Student's t-test (P = 0.02). Absolute, in contrast to estimated, value was measurable in a limited number of aged participants

  8. Absolute cardiovascular risk in a Fiji medical zone.

    PubMed

    Gyaneshwar, Rajat; Naidu, Swaran; Raban, Magdalena Z; Naidu, Sheetal; Linhart, Christine; Morrell, Stephen; Tukana, Isimeli; Taylor, Richard

    2016-02-09

    The population of Fiji has experienced emergence of non-communicable disease (NCD) and a plateau in life expectancy over the past 20 years. A mini-STEPS survey (n = 2765) was conducted in Viseisei in Western Fiji to assess NCD risk factors (RFs) in i-Taukei (Melanesians) and those of Indian descent aged 25-64 years (response 73 %). Hypertension (HT) was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or on medication for HT; type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or on medication for T2DM; and obesity as a body mass index (kilograms/height(metres)(2)) ≥30. Data were age-adjusted to 2007 Fiji Census. Associations between RFs and ethnicity/education were investigated. Comparisons with Fiji STEPS surveys were undertaken, and the absolute risk of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event/death in 10 years was estimated from multiple RF charts. NCD/RFs increased with age except excessive alcohol intake and daily smoking (women) which declined. Daily smoking was higher in men 33 % (95 % confidence interval: 31-36) than women 14 % (12-116); women were more obese 40 % (37-43) than men 23 % (20-26); HT was similar in men 37 % (34-40) and women 34 % (31-36), as was T2DM in men 15 % (13-17) and women 17 % (15-19). i-Taukei men had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.41 (0.28-0.58) for T2DM compared to Indians (1.00); and i-Taukei (both sexes) had a higher OR for obesity and low fruit/vegetable intake, daily smoking, excessive alcohol intake and HT in females. Increasing education correlated with lesser smoking, but with higher obesity and lower fruit/vegetable intake. Compared to the 2011 Fiji STEPS survey, no significant differences were evident in obesity, HT or T2DM prevalences. The proportion (40-64 years) classified at high or very high risk (≥20 %) of a CVD event/death (over 10 years) based on multiple RFs was 8.3 % for men (8.1 % i-Taukei, 8.5 % Indian), and 6.7 % for women (7.9 % i-Taukei, 6.0 % Indian). The results

  9. The Impact of Strategy Instruction and Timing of Estimates on Low and High Working-Memory Capacity Readers' Absolute Monitoring Accuracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linderholm, Tracy; Zhao, Qin

    2008-01-01

    Working-memory capacity, strategy instruction, and timing of estimates were investigated for their effects on absolute monitoring accuracy, which is the difference between estimated and actual reading comprehension test performance. Participants read two expository texts under one of two randomly assigned reading strategy instruction conditions…

  10. Estimating high-risk cannabis and opiate use in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir.

    PubMed

    Kraus, Ludwig; Hay, Gordon; Richardson, Clive; Yargic, Ilhan; Ilhan, Mustafa Necmi; Ay, Pinar; Karasahin, Füsun; Pinarci, Mustafa; Tuncoglu, Tolga; Piontek, Daniela; Schulte, Bernd

    2017-09-01

    Information on high-risk drug use in Turkey, particularly at the regional level, is lacking. The present analysis aims at estimating high-risk cannabis use (HRCU) and high-risk opiate use (HROU) in the cities of Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir. Capture-recapture and multiplier methods were applied based on treatment and police data stratified by age and gender in the years 2009 and 2010. Case definitions refer to ICD-10 cannabis (F.12) and opiate (F.11) disorder diagnoses from outpatient and inpatient treatment records and illegal possession of these drugs as recorded by the police. High-risk cannabis use was estimated at 28 500 (8.5 per 1000; 95% confidence interval 7.3-10.3) and 33 400 (11.9 per 1000; 95% confidence interval 10.7-13.5) in Ankara and Izmir, respectively. Using multipliers based on capture-recapture estimates for Izmir, HRCU in Istanbul was estimated up to 166 000 (18.0 per 1000; range: 2.8-18.0). Capture-recapture estimates of HROU resulted in 4800 (1.4 per 1000; 95% confidence interval 0.9-1.9) in Ankara and multipliers based on these gave estimates up to 20 000 (2.2 per 1000; range: 0.9-2.2) in Istanbul. HROU in Izmir was not estimated due to the low absolute numbers of opiate users. While HRCU prevalence in both Ankara and Izmir was considerably lower in comparison to an estimate for Berlin, the rate for Istanbul was only slightly lower. Compared with the majority of European cities, HROU in these three Turkish cities may be considered rather low. [Kraus L, Hay G, Richardson C, Yargic I, Ilhan N M, Ay P, Karasahin F, Pinarci M, Tuncoglu T, Piontek D, Schulte B Estimating high-risk cannabis and opiate use in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;00:000-000]. © 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  11. Absolute phase estimation: adaptive local denoising and global unwrapping.

    PubMed

    Bioucas-Dias, Jose; Katkovnik, Vladimir; Astola, Jaakko; Egiazarian, Karen

    2008-10-10

    The paper attacks absolute phase estimation with a two-step approach: the first step applies an adaptive local denoising scheme to the modulo-2 pi noisy phase; the second step applies a robust phase unwrapping algorithm to the denoised modulo-2 pi phase obtained in the first step. The adaptive local modulo-2 pi phase denoising is a new algorithm based on local polynomial approximations. The zero-order and the first-order approximations of the phase are calculated in sliding windows of varying size. The zero-order approximation is used for pointwise adaptive window size selection, whereas the first-order approximation is used to filter the phase in the obtained windows. For phase unwrapping, we apply the recently introduced robust (in the sense of discontinuity preserving) PUMA unwrapping algorithm [IEEE Trans. Image Process.16, 698 (2007)] to the denoised wrapped phase. Simulations give evidence that the proposed algorithm yields state-of-the-art performance, enabling strong noise attenuation while preserving image details. (c) 2008 Optical Society of America

  12. Estimation of the Standardized Risk Difference and Ratio in a Competing Risks Framework: Application to Injection Drug Use and Progression to AIDS After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Cole, Stephen R.; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.; Cole, Stephen R.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. PMID:24966220

  13. Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of

  14. Joint Estimation of Cardiac Toxicity and Recurrence Risks After Comprehensive Nodal Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Breast Cancer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stick, Line B., E-mail: line.bjerregaard.stick@regionh.dk; Niels Bohr Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen; Yu, Jen

    Purpose: The study aims to perform joint estimation of the risk of recurrence caused by inadequate radiation dose coverage of lymph node targets and the risk of cardiac toxicity caused by radiation exposure to the heart. Delivered photon plans are compared with realistic proton plans, thereby providing evidence-based estimates of the heterogeneity of treatment effects in consecutive cases for the 2 radiation treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Forty-one patients referred for postlumpectomy comprehensive nodal photon irradiation for left-sided breast cancer were included. Comparative proton plans were optimized by a spot scanning technique with single-field optimization from 2 en face beams.more » Cardiotoxicity risk was estimated with the model of Darby et al, and risk of recurrence following a compromise of lymph node coverage was estimated by a linear dose-response model fitted to the recurrence data from the recently published EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) 22922/10925 and NCIC-CTG (National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group) MA.20 randomized controlled trials. Results: Excess absolute risk of cardiac morbidity was small with photon therapy at an attained age of 80 years, with median values of 1.0% (range, 0.2%-2.9%) and 0.5% (range, 0.03%-1.0%) with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively, but even lower with proton therapy (0.13% [range, 0.02%-0.5%] and 0.06% [range, 0.004%-0.3%], respectively). The median estimated excess absolute risk of breast cancer recurrence after 10 years was 0.10% (range, 0.0%-0.9%) with photons and 0.02% (range, 0.0%-0.07%) with protons. The association between age of the patient and benefit from proton therapy was weak, almost non-existing (Spearman rank correlations of −0.15 and −0.30 with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively). Conclusions: Modern photon therapy yields limited risk of cardiac toxicity in most patients, but proton therapy can reduce

  15. Risk communication methods in hip fracture prevention: a randomised trial in primary care.

    PubMed

    Hudson, Ben; Toop, Les; Mangin, Dee; Pearson, John

    2011-08-01

    Treatment acceptance by patients is influenced by the way treatment effects are presented. Presentation of benefits using relative risk increases treatment acceptance compared to the use of absolute risk. It is not known whether this effect is modified by prior presentation of a patient's individualised risk estimate or how presentation of treatment harms by relative or absolute risk affects acceptance. To compare acceptance of a hypothetical treatment to prevent hip fracture after presentation of the treatment's benefit in relative or absolute terms in the context of a personal fracture risk estimate, and to reassess acceptance following subsequent presentation of harm in relative or absolute terms. Randomised controlled trial of patients recruited from 10 GPs' lists in Christchurch, New Zealand. Women aged ≥ 50 years were invited to participate. Participants were given a personal 10-year hip fracture risk estimate and randomised to receive information on a hypothetical treatment's benefit and harm in relative or absolute terms. Of the 1140 women invited to participate 393 (34%) took part. Treatment acceptance was greater following presentation of benefit using absolute terms than relative terms after adjustment forage, education, previous osteoporosis diagnosis, and self-reported risk (OR 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10 to 2.73, P = 0.018). Presentation of the treatment's harmful effect in relative terms led to a greater proportion of participants declining treatment than did presentation in absolute terms (OR 4.89, 95% CI = 2.3 to 11.0, P<0.001). Presentation of treatment benefit and harm using absolute risk estimates led to greater treatment acceptance than presentation of the same information in relative terms.

  16. Estimated cardiovascular relative risk reduction from fixed-dose combination pill (polypill) treatment in a wide range of patients with a moderate risk of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Lafeber, Melvin; Webster, Ruth; Visseren, Frank Lj; Bots, Michiel L; Grobbee, Diederick E; Spiering, W; Rodgers, Anthony

    2016-08-01

    Recent data indicate that fixed-dose combination (FDC) pills, polypills, can produce sizeable risk factor reductions. There are very few published data on the consistency of the effects of a polypill in different patient populations. It is unclear for example whether the effects of the polypill are mainly driven by the individuals with high individual risk factor levels. The aim of the present study is to examine whether baseline risk factor levels modify the effect of polypill treatment on low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, blood pressure (BP), calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. This paper describes a post-hoc analysis of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial of a polypill (containing aspirin 75 mg, simvastatin 20 mg, lisinopril 10 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg) in 378 individuals without an indication for any component of the polypill, but who had an estimated five-year risk for cardiovascular disease ≥7.5%. The outcomes considered were effect modification by baseline risk factor levels on change in LDL-cholesterol, systolic BP, calculated cardiovascular relative risk reduction and adverse events. The mean LDL-cholesterol in the polypill group was 0.9 mmol/l (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8-1.0) lower compared with the placebo group during follow-up. Those with a baseline LDL-cholesterol >3.6 mmol/l achieved a greater absolute LDL-cholesterol reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than patients with an LDL-cholesterol ≤3.6 mmol/l (-1.1 versus -0.6 mmol/l, respectively). The mean systolic BP was 10 mm Hg (95% CI: 8-12) lower in the polypill group. In participants with a baseline systolic BP >135 mm Hg the polypill resulted in a greater absolute systolic BP reduction with the polypill compared with placebo, than participants with a systolic BP ≤ 135 mm Hg (-12 versus -7 mm Hg, respectively). Calculated from individual risk factor reductions, the mean cardiovascular

  17. Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Reed, Duncan W

    2002-07-15

    Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

  18. The Absolute Magnitude of the Sun in Several Filters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willmer, Christopher N. A.

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a table with estimates of the absolute magnitude of the Sun and the conversions from vegamag to the AB and ST systems for several wide-band filters used in ground-based and space-based observatories. These estimates use the dustless spectral energy distribution (SED) of Vega, calibrated absolutely using the SED of Sirius, to set the vegamag zero-points and a composite spectrum of the Sun that coadds space-based observations from the ultraviolet to the near-infrared with models of the Solar atmosphere. The uncertainty of the absolute magnitudes is estimated by comparing the synthetic colors with photometric measurements of solar analogs and is found to be ∼0.02 mag. Combined with the uncertainty of ∼2% in the calibration of the Vega SED, the errors of these absolute magnitudes are ∼3%–4%. Using these SEDs, for three of the most utilized filters in extragalactic work the estimated absolute magnitudes of the Sun are M B = 5.44, M V = 4.81, and M K = 3.27 mag in the vegamag system and M B = 5.31, M V = 4.80, and M K = 5.08 mag in AB.

  19. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Updated Absolute Age Estimates for the Tolstoj and Caloris Basins, Mercury

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ernst, C. M.; Denevi, B. W.; Ostrach, L. R.

    2016-12-01

    Time-stratigraphic systems are developed to provide a framework to derive the relative ages of terrains across a given planet, estimate their absolute ages, and aid cross-planet comparisons. Mercury's time-stratigraphic system was modeled after that of the Moon, with five systems defined on the basis of geologic mapping using Mariner 10 images. From oldest to youngest, Mercury's time-stratigraphic system contains the pre-Tolstojan, Tolstojan, Calorian, Mansurian, and Kuiperian systems. The formations of the Tolstoj and Caloris basins mark the start of the Tolstojan and Calorian systems, respectively. The Mansurian and Kuiperian systems are defined by the type craters for which they are named. The completion of MESSENGER's global image dataset marks an appropriate time to re-assess the time-stratigraphic system of the innermost planet. Recent work suggests the Mansurian and Kuiperian systems may have begun as recently as 1.7 Ga and 280 Ma, respectively (Banks et al., 2016). We used MESSENGER data to re-evaluate the relative and absolute ages of the Tolstoj and Caloris basins in to complete the reassessment of Mercury's time-stratigraphic system. We redefine basin rim units for Tolstoj and Caloris determine the crater size-frequency distribution for craters larger than 10 km in diameter. Two models for crater production are used to derive absolute ages from the crater counts: Marchi et al., 2009 (M) using a main belt asteroid-like impactor size-frequency distribution, hard rock crater scaling relations, target strength of 2e7 dyne/cm2, and target and projectile densities of 3.4 g/cm3 and 2.6 g/cm3; and Le Feuvre and Wieczorek 2011 (L&W) using non-porous scaling relations. We find N(20) values (the number of craters ≥ 20 km in diameter per million square km) for the Caloris rim of 37 ± 7 and for the Tolstoj rim of 93 ± 15. We derived model ages of 3.9 Ga (M) and 3.7 Ga (L&W) for Tolstoj and 3.7 Ga (M) and 3.1 Ga (L&W) for Caloris. Analysis to refine the ages using

  1. The Ethics of Information: Absolute Risk Reduction and Patient Understanding of Screening

    PubMed Central

    Meslin, Eric M.

    2008-01-01

    Some experts have argued that patients should routinely be told the specific magnitude and absolute probability of potential risks and benefits of screening tests. This position is motivated by the idea that framing risk information in ways that are less precise violates the ethical principle of respect for autonomy and its application in informed consent or shared decision-making. In this Perspective, we consider a number of problems with this view that have not been adequately addressed. The most important challenges stem from the danger that patients will misunderstand the information or have irrational responses to it. Any initiative in this area should take such factors into account and should consider carefully how to apply the ethical principles of respect for autonomy and beneficence. PMID:18421509

  2. Flux and permanence of risk perceptions: Tourists' perception of the relative and absolute risk for various destinations.

    PubMed

    Wolff, Katharina; Larsen, Svein

    2016-12-01

    The present investigation is a cross-sectional, multi-national, quantitative, and quasi-experimental comparison of tourists' risk perceptions regarding different destinations throughout the past decade. Over 10,000 tourists to Norway from 89 different countries filled in a questionnaire rating the perceived risk for various destinations. Data were collected during 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and allow for a comparison of perceived risk across time, place and nationality. Results show that while absolute risk judgments for different destinations fluctuate somewhat over the years, relative risk judgments remain constant. Findings also reveal a "home-is-safer-then-abroad-bias" with tourists consistently perceiving their home country among the safest destinations. The current investigation is rare because it looks at more than one destination at a time. Insights gained from the present findings diverge from what would have been concluded from employing case studies, that is, looking at one destination at a time. © 2016 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology published by Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Absolute rather than relative income is a better socioeconomic predictor of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Swedish adults.

    PubMed

    Axelsson Fisk, Sten; Merlo, Juan

    2017-05-04

    While psychosocial theory claims that socioeconomic status (SES), acting through social comparisons, has an important influence on susceptibility to disease, materialistic theory says that socioeconomic position (SEP) and related access to material resources matter more. However, the relative role of SEP versus SES in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk has still not been examined. We investigated the association between SES/SEP and COPD risk among 667 094 older adults, aged 55 to 60, residing in Sweden between 2006 and 2011. Absolute income in five groups by population quintiles depicted SEP and relative income expressed as quintile groups within each absolute income group represented SES. We performed sex-stratified logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios and the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) to compare the discriminatory accuracy of SES and SEP in relation to COPD. Even though both absolute (SEP) and relative income (SES) were associated with COPD risk, only absolute income (SEP) presented a clear gradient, so the poorest had a three-fold higher COPD risk than the richest individuals. While the AUC for a model including only age was 0.54 and 0.55 when including relative income (SES), it increased to 0.65 when accounting for absolute income (SEP). SEP rather than SES demonstrated a consistent association with COPD. Our study supports the materialistic theory. Access to material resources seems more relevant to COPD risk than the consequences of low relative income.

  4. Improving absolute gravity estimates by the L p -norm approximation of the ballistic trajectory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagornyi, V. D.; Svitlov, S.; Araya, A.

    2016-04-01

    Iteratively re-weighted least squares (IRLS) were used to simulate the L p -norm approximation of the ballistic trajectory in absolute gravimeters. Two iterations of the IRLS delivered sufficient accuracy of the approximation without a significant bias. The simulations were performed on different samplings and perturbations of the trajectory. For the platykurtic distributions of the perturbations, the L p -approximation with 3  <  p  <  4 was found to yield several times more precise gravity estimates compared to the standard least-squares. The simulation results were confirmed by processing real gravity observations performed at the excessive noise conditions.

  5. Assessment of the agreement between the Framingham and DAD risk equations for estimating cardiovascular risk in adult Africans living with HIV infection: a cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Noumegni, Steve Raoul; Ama, Vicky Jocelyne Moor; Assah, Felix K; Bigna, Jean Joel; Nansseu, Jobert Richie; Kameni, Jenny Arielle M; Katte, Jean-Claude; Dehayem, Mesmin Y; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Sobngwi, Eugene

    2017-01-01

    The Absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk evaluation using multivariable CVD risk models is increasingly advocated in people with HIV, in whom existing models remain largely untested. We assessed the agreement between the general population derived Framingham CVD risk equation and the HIV-specific Data collection on Adverse effects of anti-HIV Drugs (DAD) CVD risk equation in HIV-infected adult Cameroonians. This cross-sectional study involved 452 HIV infected adults recruited at the HIV day-care unit of the Yaoundé Central Hospital, Cameroon. The 5-year projected CVD risk was estimated for each participant using the DAD and Framingham CVD risk equations. Agreement between estimates from these equations was assessed using the spearman correlation and Cohen's kappa coefficient. The mean age of participants (80% females) was 44.4 ± 9.8 years. Most participants (88.5%) were on antiretroviral treatment with 93.3% of them receiving first-line regimen. The most frequent cardiovascular risk factors were abdominal obesity (43.1%) and dyslipidemia (33.8%). The median estimated 5-year CVD risk was 0.6% (25th-75th percentiles: 0.3-1.3) using the DAD equation and 0.7% (0.2-2.0) with the Framingham equation. The Spearman correlation between the two estimates was 0.93 ( p  < 0.001). The kappa statistic was 0.61 (95% confident interval: 0.54-0.67) for the agreement between the two equations in classifying participants across risk categories defined as low, moderate, high and very high. Most participants had a low-to-moderate estimated CVD risk, with acceptable level of agreement between the general and HIV-specific equations in ranking CVD risk.

  6. The absolute dynamic ocean topography (ADOT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bosch, Wolfgang; Savcenko, Roman

    The sea surface slopes relative to the geoid (an equipotential surface) basically carry the in-formation on the absolute velocity field of the surface circulation. Pure oceanographic models may remain unspecific with respect to the absolute level of the ocean topography. In contrast, the geodetic approach to estimate the ocean topography as difference between sea level and the geoid gives by definition an absolute dynamic ocean topography (ADOT). This approach requires, however, a consistent treatment of geoid and sea surface heights, the first being usually derived from a band limited spherical harmonic series of the Earth gravity field and the second observed with much higher spectral resolution by satellite altimetry. The present contribution shows a procedure for estimating the ADOT along the altimeter profiles, preserving as much sea surface height details as the consistency w.r.t. the geoid heights will allow. The consistent treatment at data gaps and the coast is particular demanding and solved by a filter correction. The ADOT profiles are inspected for their innocent properties towards the coast and compared to external estimates of the ocean topography or the velocity field of the surface circulation as derived, for example, by ARGO floats.

  7. Usefulness of cancer-free survival in estimating the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence from radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dal Nim; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Won Jin; Park, Sunhoo

    2018-05-11

    Risk projection models estimating the lifetime cancer risk from radiation exposure are generally based on exposure dose, age at exposure, attained age, gender and study-population-specific factors such as baseline cancer risks and survival rates. Because such models have mostly been based on the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, the baseline risks and survival rates in the target population should be considered when applying the cancer risk. The survival function used in the risk projection models that are commonly used in the radiological protection field to estimate the cancer risk from medical or occupational exposure is based on all-cause mortality. Thus, it may not be accurate for estimating the lifetime risk of high-incidence but not life-threatening cancer with a long-term survival rate. Herein, we present the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) estimates of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, thyroid cancer, and leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia in South Korea for lifetime exposure to 1 mGy per year using the cancer-free survival function, as recently applied in the Fukushima health risk assessment by the World Health Organization. Compared with the estimates of LARs using an overall survival function solely based on all-cause mortality, the LARs of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer evaluated using the cancer-free survival function, decreased by approximately 13% and 1% for men and 9% and 5% for women, respectively. The LAR of leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia barely changed for either gender owing to the small absolute difference between its incidence and mortality. Given that many cancers have a high curative rate and low mortality rate, using a survival function solely based on all-cause mortality may cause an overestimation of the lifetime risk of cancer incidence. The lifetime fractional risk was robust against the choice of survival function.

  8. Environmental risk assessment of selected organic chemicals based on TOC test and QSAR estimation models.

    PubMed

    Chi, Yulang; Zhang, Huanteng; Huang, Qiansheng; Lin, Yi; Ye, Guozhu; Zhu, Huimin; Dong, Sijun

    2018-02-01

    Environmental risks of organic chemicals have been greatly determined by their persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (PBT) and physicochemical properties. Major regulations in different countries and regions identify chemicals according to their bioconcentration factor (BCF) and octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), which frequently displays a substantial correlation with the sediment sorption coefficient (Koc). Half-life or degradability is crucial for the persistence evaluation of chemicals. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) estimation models are indispensable for predicting environmental fate and health effects in the absence of field- or laboratory-based data. In this study, 39 chemicals of high concern were chosen for half-life testing based on total organic carbon (TOC) degradation, and two widely accepted and highly used QSAR estimation models (i.e., EPI Suite and PBT Profiler) were adopted for environmental risk evaluation. The experimental results and estimated data, as well as the two model-based results were compared, based on the water solubility, Kow, Koc, BCF and half-life. Environmental risk assessment of the selected compounds was achieved by combining experimental data and estimation models. It was concluded that both EPI Suite and PBT Profiler were fairly accurate in measuring the physicochemical properties and degradation half-lives for water, soil, and sediment. However, the half-lives between the experimental and the estimated results were still not absolutely consistent. This suggests deficiencies of the prediction models in some ways, and the necessity to combine the experimental data and predicted results for the evaluation of environmental fate and risks of pollutants. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials

    PubMed Central

    Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Anderson, Stewart J.; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I.; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence

  10. Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K; Aznar, Marianne C; Anderson, Stewart J; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

    2017-05-20

    Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence

  11. Bridging the etiologic and prognostic outlooks in individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness: application in lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Karp, Igor; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Leffondré, Karen; Siemiatycki, Jack

    2016-11-01

    Assessment of individual risk of illness is an important activity in preventive medicine. Development of risk-assessment models has heretofore relied predominantly on studies involving follow-up of cohort-type populations, while case-control studies have generally been considered unfit for this purpose. To present a method for individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness (as illustrated by lung cancer) based on data from a 'non-nested' case-control study. We used data from a case-control study conducted in Montreal, Canada in 1996-2001. Individuals diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 920) and age- and sex-matched lung-cancer-free subjects (n = 1288) completed questionnaires documenting life-time cigarette-smoking history and occupational, medical, and family history. Unweighted and weighted logistic models were fitted. Model overfitting was assessed using bootstrap-based cross-validation and 'shrinkage.' The discriminating ability was assessed by the c-statistic, and the risk-stratifying performance was assessed by examination of the variability in risk estimates over hypothetical risk-profiles. In the logistic models, the logarithm of incidence-density of lung cancer was expressed as a function of age, sex, cigarette-smoking history, history of respiratory conditions and exposure to occupational carcinogens, and family history of lung cancer. The models entailed a minimal degree of overfitting ('shrinkage' factor: 0.97 for both unweighted and weighted models) and moderately high discriminating ability (c-statistic: 0.82 for the unweighted model and 0.66 for the weighted model). The method's risk-stratifying performance was quite high. The presented method allows for individualized assessment of risk of lung cancer and can be used for development of risk-assessment models for other illnesses.

  12. Absolute Paleointensity Estimates using Combined Shaw and Pseudo-Thellier Experimental Protocols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foucher, M. S.; Smirnov, A. V.

    2016-12-01

    Data on the long-term evolution of Earth's magnetic field intensity have a great potential to advance our understanding of many aspects of the Earth's evolution. However, paleointensity determination is one of the most challenging aspects of paleomagnetic research so the quantity and quality of existing paleointensity data remain limited, especially for older epochs. While the Thellier double-heating method remains to be the most commonly used paleointensity technique, its applicability is limited for many rocks that undergo magneto-mineralogical alteration during the successive heating steps required by the method. In order to reduce the probability of alteration, several alternative methods that involve a limited number of or no heating steps have been proposed. However, continued efforts are needed to better understand the physical foundations and relative efficiency of reduced/non-heating methods in recovering the true paleofield strength and to better constrain their calibration factors. We will present the results of our investigation of synthetic and natural magnetite-bearing samples using a combination of the LTD-DHT Shaw and pseudo-Thellier experimental protocols for absolute paleointensity estimation.

  13. A Concurrent Mixed Methods Approach to Examining the Quantitative and Qualitative Meaningfulness of Absolute Magnitude Estimation Scales in Survey Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koskey, Kristin L. K.; Stewart, Victoria C.

    2014-01-01

    This small "n" observational study used a concurrent mixed methods approach to address a void in the literature with regard to the qualitative meaningfulness of the data yielded by absolute magnitude estimation scaling (MES) used to rate subjective stimuli. We investigated whether respondents' scales progressed from less to more and…

  14. Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

    PubMed Central

    Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

  15. Waist circumference values equivalent to body mass index points for predicting absolute cardiovascular disease risks among adults in an Aboriginal community: a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Adegbija, Odewumi; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

    2015-11-13

    There have been suggestions that currently recommended waist circumference (WC) cut-off points for Australians of European origin may not be applicable to Aboriginal people who have different body habitus profiles. We aimed to generate equivalent WC values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) points for identifying absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. Prospective cohort study. An Aboriginal community in Australia's Northern Territory. From 1992 to 1998, 920 adults without CVD, with age, WC and BMI measurements were followed-up for up to 20 years. Incident CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF) events during the follow-up period ascertained from hospitalisation data. We generated WC values with 10-year absolute risks equivalent for the development of CVD as BMI values (20-34 kg/m(2)) using the Weibull accelerated time-failure model. There were 211 incident cases of CVD over 13,669 person-years of follow-up. At the average age of 35 years, WC values with absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks equivalent to BMI of 25 kg/m(2) were 91.5, 91.8 and 91.7 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding WC values were 92.5, 92.7 and 93 cm for females. WC values with equal absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) were 101.7, 103.1 and 102.6 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding values were 99.2, 101.6 and 101.5 cm for females. Association between WC and CVD did not depend on gender (p=0.54). WC ranging from 91 to 93 cm was equivalent to BMI 25 kg/m(2) for overweight, and 99 to 103 cm was equivalent to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) for obesity in terms of predicting 10-year absolute CVD risk. Replicating the absolute risk method in other Aboriginal communities will further validate the WC values generated for future development of WC cut-off points for Aboriginal people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  16. Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. Methods We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). Conclusions The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and

  17. Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort.

    PubMed

    Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Moons, Philip; De Geest, Sabina; Fridlund, Bengt; Heikkilä, Johanna; Jaarsma, Tiny; Lenzen, Mattie; Martensson, Jan; Norekvål, Tone M; Smith, Karen; Stewart, Simon; Strömberg, Anna; Thompson, David R

    2006-12-01

    Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (kappa(w)). Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (> or =5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of <1%, while 13% reported having a risk > or =5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was <1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a > or =5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (kappa(w)=0.27). Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic

  18. Regional biases in absolute sea-level estimates from tide gauge data due to residual unmodeled vertical land movement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Matt A.; Keshin, Maxim; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Thomas, Ian D.; Milne, Glenn; Riva, Riccardo E. M.

    2012-07-01

    The only vertical land movement signal routinely corrected for when estimating absolute sea-level change from tide gauge data is that due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We compare modeled GIA uplift (ICE-5G + VM2) with vertical land movement at ˜300 GPS stations located near to a global set of tide gauges, and find regionally coherent differences of commonly ±0.5-2 mm/yr. Reference frame differences and signal due to present-day mass trends cannot reconcile these differences. We examine sensitivity to the GIA Earth model by fitting to a subset of the GPS velocities and find substantial regional sensitivity, but no single Earth model is able to reduce the disagreement in all regions. We suggest errors in ice history and neglected lateral Earth structure dominate model-data differences, and urge caution in the use of modeled GIA uplift alone when interpreting regional- and global- scale absolute (geocentric) sea level from tide gauge data.

  19. Absolute magnitude calibration using trigonometric parallax - Incomplete, spectroscopic samples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ratnatunga, Kavan U.; Casertano, Stefano

    1991-01-01

    A new numerical algorithm is used to calibrate the absolute magnitude of spectroscopically selected stars from their observed trigonometric parallax. This procedure, based on maximum-likelihood estimation, can retrieve unbiased estimates of the intrinsic absolute magnitude and its dispersion even from incomplete samples suffering from selection biases in apparent magnitude and color. It can also make full use of low accuracy and negative parallaxes and incorporate censorship on reported parallax values. Accurate error estimates are derived for each of the fitted parameters. The algorithm allows an a posteriori check of whether the fitted model gives a good representation of the observations. The procedure is described in general and applied to both real and simulated data.

  20. Estimation of the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to modifiable risk factors and cost-effectiveness analysis of preventative interventions to reduce this burden in Argentina

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the primary cause of mortality and morbidity in Argentina representing 34.2% of deaths and 12.6% of potential years of life lost (PYLL). The aim of the study was to estimate the burden of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke and the cost-effectiveness of preventative population-based and clinical interventions. Methods An epidemiological model was built incorporating prevalence and distribution of high blood pressure, high cholesterol, hyperglycemia, overweight and obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, obtained from the Argentine Survey of Risk Factors dataset. Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of each risk factor was estimated using relative risks from international sources. Total fatal and non-fatal events, PYLL and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) were estimated. Costs of event were calculated from local utilization databases and expressed in international dollars (I$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were estimated for six interventions: reducing salt in bread, mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation, pharmacological therapy of high blood pressure, pharmacological therapy of high cholesterol, tobacco cessation therapy with bupropion, and a multidrug strategy for people with an estimated absolute risk > 20% in 10 years. Results An estimated total of 611,635 DALY was lost due to acute CHD and stroke for 2005. Modifiable risk factors explained 71.1% of DALY and more than 80% of events. Two interventions were cost-saving: lowering salt intake in the population through reducing salt in bread and multidrug therapy targeted to persons with an absolute risk above 20% in 10 years; three interventions had very acceptable ICERs: drug therapy for high blood pressure in hypertensive patients not yet undergoing treatment (I$ 2,908 per DALY saved), mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation amongst smokers (I$ 3,186 per DALY saved), and lowering cholesterol with statin drug therapy

  1. Estimates of the absolute error and a scheme for an approximate solution to scheduling problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazarev, A. A.

    2009-02-01

    An approach is proposed for estimating absolute errors and finding approximate solutions to classical NP-hard scheduling problems of minimizing the maximum lateness for one or many machines and makespan is minimized. The concept of a metric (distance) between instances of the problem is introduced. The idea behind the approach is, given the problem instance, to construct another instance for which an optimal or approximate solution can be found at the minimum distance from the initial instance in the metric introduced. Instead of solving the original problem (instance), a set of approximating polynomially/pseudopolynomially solvable problems (instances) are considered, an instance at the minimum distance from the given one is chosen, and the resulting schedule is then applied to the original instance.

  2. Prediction of absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population: validation of the WHO FRAX ™ tool in Spain

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Age-related bone loss is asymptomatic, and the morbidity of osteoporosis is secondary to the fractures that occur. Common sites of fracture include the spine, hip, forearm and proximal humerus. Fractures at the hip incur the greatest morbidity and mortality and give rise to the highest direct costs for health services. Their incidence increases exponentially with age. Independently changes in population demography, the age - and sex- specific incidence of osteoporotic fractures appears to be increasing in developing and developed countries. This could mean more than double the expected burden of osteoporotic fractures in the next 50 years. Methods/Design To assess the predictive power of the WHO FRAX™ tool to identify the subjects with the highest absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population, a predictive validation study of the tool will be carried out. For this purpose, the participants recruited by 1999 will be assessed. These were referred to scan-DXA Department from primary healthcare centres, non hospital and hospital consultations. Study population: Patients attended in the national health services integrated into a FRIDEX cohort with at least one Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement and one extensive questionnaire related to fracture risk factors. Measurements: At baseline bone mineral density measurement using DXA, clinical fracture risk factors questionnaire, dietary calcium intake assessment, history of previous fractures, and related drugs. Follow up by telephone interview to know fragility fractures in the 10 years with verification in electronic medical records and also to know the number of falls in the last year. The absolute risk of fracture will be estimated using the FRAX™ tool from the official web site. Discussion Since more than 10 years ago numerous publications have recognised the importance of other risk factors for new osteoporotic fractures in addition to low BMD. The extension of a

  3. Modelling second malignancy risks from low dose rate and high dose rate brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Murray, Louise; Mason, Joshua; Henry, Ann M; Hoskin, Peter; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Venselaar, Jack; Bownes, Peter

    2016-08-01

    To estimate the risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancers following low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer and compare to external beam radiotherapy techniques. LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy plans were generated for three prostate CT datasets. Second cancer risks were assessed using Schneider's concept of organ equivalent dose. LDR risks were assessed according to a mechanistic model and a bell-shaped model. HDR risks were assessed according to a bell-shaped model. Relative risks and excess absolute risks were estimated and compared to external beam techniques. Excess absolute risks of second rectal or bladder cancer were low for both LDR (irrespective of the model used for calculation) and HDR techniques. Average excess absolute risks of rectal cancer for LDR brachytherapy according to the mechanistic model were 0.71 per 10,000 person-years (PY) and 0.84 per 10,000 PY respectively, and according to the bell-shaped model, were 0.47 and 0.78 per 10,000 PY respectively. For HDR, the average excess absolute risks for second rectal and bladder cancers were 0.74 and 1.62 per 10,000 PY respectively. The absolute differences between techniques were very low and clinically irrelevant. Compared to external beam prostate radiotherapy techniques, LDR and HDR brachytherapy resulted in the lowest risks of second rectal and bladder cancer. This study shows both LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy result in low estimated risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancer. LDR resulted in lower bladder cancer risks than HDR, and lower or similar risks of rectal cancer. In absolute terms these differences between techniques were very small. Compared to external beam techniques, second rectal and bladder cancer risks were lowest for brachytherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The 10-year Absolute Risk of Cardiovascular (CV) Events in Northern Iran: a Population Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Motamed, Nima; Mardanshahi, Alireza; Saravi, Benyamin Mohseni; Siamian, Hasan; Maadi, Mansooreh; Zamani, Farhad

    2015-01-01

    Background: The present study was conducted to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease events (CVD) risk using three instruments in northern Iran. Material and methods: Baseline data of 3201 participants 40-79 of a population based cohort which was conducted in Northern Iran were analyzed. Framingham risk score (FRS), World Health Organization (WHO) risk prediction charts and American college of cardiovascular / American heart association (ACC/AHA) tool were applied to assess 10-year CVD events risk. The agreement values between the risk assessment instruments were determined using the kappa statistics. Results: Our study estimated 53.5%of male population aged 40-79 had a 10 –year risk of CVD events≥10% based on ACC/AHA approach, 48.9% based on FRS and 11.8% based on WHO risk charts. A 10 –year risk≥10% was estimated among 20.1% of women using the ACC/AHA approach, 11.9%using FRS and 5.7%using WHO tool. ACC/AHA and Framingham tools had closest agreement in the estimation of 10-year risk≥10% (κ=0.7757) in meanwhile ACC/AHA and WHO approaches displayed highest agreement (κ=0.6123) in women. Conclusion: Different estimations of 10-year risk of CVD event were provided by ACC/AHA, FRS and WHO approaches. PMID:26236160

  5. Cost-effectiveness of medical primary prevention strategies to reduce absolute risk of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania: a Markov modelling study.

    PubMed

    Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ruhago, George M; Mori, Amani T; Robberstad, Bjarne; Norheim, Ole F

    2016-05-17

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a growing cause of mortality and morbidity in Tanzania, but contextualized evidence on cost-effective medical strategies to prevent it is scarce. We aim to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of medical interventions for primary prevention of CVD using the World Health Organization's (WHO) absolute risk approach for four risk levels. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a societal perspective using two Markov decision models: CVD risk without diabetes and CVD risk with diabetes. Primary provider and patient costs were estimated using the ingredients approach and step-down methodologies. Epidemiological data and efficacy inputs were derived from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. We used disability- adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as the outcome measure. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the model results. For CVD low-risk patients without diabetes, medical management is not cost-effective unless willingness to pay (WTP) is higher than US$1327 per DALY averted. For moderate-risk patients, WTP must exceed US$164 per DALY before a combination of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and diuretic (Diu) becomes cost-effective, while for high-risk and very high-risk patients the thresholds are US$349 (ACEI, calcium channel blocker (CCB) and Diu) and US$498 per DALY (ACEI, CCB, Diu and Aspirin (ASA)) respectively. For patients with CVD risk with diabetes, a combination of sulfonylureas (Sulf), ACEI and CCB for low and moderate risk (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) US$608 and US$115 per DALY respectively), is the most cost-effective, while adding biguanide (Big) to this combination yielded the most favourable ICERs of US$309 and US$350 per DALY for high and very high risk respectively. For the latter, ASA is also part of the combination. Medical preventive cardiology is very cost-effective for all risk levels except low CVD risk. Budget impact analyses and

  6. Hydraulic head estimation at unobserved locations: Approximating the distribution of the absolute error based on geologic interpretations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios; Xeygeni, Vagia; Magkou, Foteini

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the availability of groundwater reserves at a regional level, requires accurate and robust hydraulic head estimation at multiple locations of an aquifer. To that extent, one needs groundwater observation networks that can provide sufficient information to estimate the hydraulic head at unobserved locations. The density of such networks is largely influenced by the spatial distribution of the hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer, and it is usually determined through trial-and-error, by solving the groundwater flow based on a properly selected set of alternative but physically plausible geologic structures. In this work, we use: 1) dimensional analysis, and b) a pulse-based stochastic model for simulation of synthetic aquifer structures, to calculate the distribution of the absolute error in hydraulic head estimation as a function of the standardized distance from the nearest measuring locations. The resulting distributions are proved to encompass all possible small-scale structural dependencies, exhibiting characteristics (bounds, multi-modal features etc.) that can be explained using simple geometric arguments. The obtained results are promising, pointing towards the direction of establishing design criteria based on large-scale geologic maps.

  7. Estimation of the Long-term Cardiovascular Events Using UKPDS Risk Engine in Metabolic Syndrome Patients.

    PubMed

    Shivakumar, V; Kandhare, A D; Rajmane, A R; Adil, M; Ghosh, P; Badgujar, L B; Saraf, M N; Bodhankar, S L

    2014-03-01

    Long-term cardiovascular complications in metabolic syndrome are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in India and forecasted estimates in this domain of research are scarcely reported in the literature. The aim of present investigation is to estimate the cardiovascular events associated with a representative Indian population of patients suffering from metabolic syndrome using United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Patient level data was collated from 567 patients suffering from metabolic syndrome through structured interviews and physician records regarding the input variables, which were entered into the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. The patients of metabolic syndrome were selected according to guidelines of National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III, modified National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III and International Diabetes Federation criteria. A projection for 10 simulated years was run on the engine and output was determined. The data for each patient was processed using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine to calculate an estimate of the forecasted value for the cardiovascular complications after a period of 10 years. The absolute risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke for 10 years was 3.79 (1.5-3.2), 9.6 (6.8-10.7), 7.91 (6.5-9.9) and 3.57 (2.3-4.5), respectively. The relative risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke was 17.8 (12.98-19.99), 7 (6.7-7.2), 5.9 (4.0-6.6) and 4.7 (3.2-5.7), respectively. Simulated projections of metabolic syndrome patients predict serious life-threatening cardiovascular consequences in the representative cohort of patients in western India.

  8. Absolute or relative? A comparative analysis of the relationship between poverty and mortality.

    PubMed

    Fritzell, Johan; Rehnberg, Johan; Bacchus Hertzman, Jennie; Blomgren, Jenni

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to examine the cross-national and cross-temporal association between poverty and mortality, in particular differentiating the impact of absolute and relative poverty. We employed pooled cross-sectional time series analysis. Our measure of relative poverty was based upon the standard 60% of median income. The measure of absolute, or fixed, poverty was based upon the US poverty threshold. Our analyses were conducted on data for 30 countries between 1978 and 2010, a total of 149 data points. We separately studied infant, child, and adult mortality. Our findings highlight the importance of relative poverty for mortality. Especially for infant and child mortality, we found that our estimates of fixed poverty is close to zero either in the crude models, or when adjusting for gross domestic product. Conversely, the relative poverty estimates increased when adjusting for confounders. Our results seemed robust to a number of sensitivity tests. If we agree that risk of death is important, the public policy implication of our findings is that relative poverty, which has close associations to overall inequality, should be a major concern also among rich countries.

  9. Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

    2018-04-01

    The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

  10. The absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel: a cohort study of 8,755 employees of international organisations.

    PubMed

    Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Middeldorp, Saskia; Robyn, Luc; Büller, Harry R; Rosendaal, Frits R

    2007-09-01

    The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY). The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8-5.6). This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups.

  11. Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: Rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives

    PubMed Central

    Sparks, Jeffrey A.; Iversen, Maura D.; Kroouze, Rachel Miller; Mahmoud, Taysir G.; Triedman, Nellie A.; Kalia, Sarah S.; Atkinson, Michael L.; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D.; Costenbader, Karen H.; Green, Robert C.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.

    2014-01-01

    We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. PMID:25151341

  12. Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives.

    PubMed

    Sparks, Jeffrey A; Iversen, Maura D; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Mahmoud, Taysir G; Triedman, Nellie A; Kalia, Sarah S; Atkinson, Michael L; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D; Costenbader, Karen H; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W

    2014-09-01

    We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics, and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and the execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Impact of UKPDS risk estimation added to a first subjective risk estimation on management of coronary disease risk in type 2 diabetes - An observational study.

    PubMed

    Wind, Anne E; Gorter, Kees J; van den Donk, Maureen; Rutten, Guy E H M

    2016-02-01

    To investigate the impact of the UKPDS risk engine on management of CHD risk in T2DM patients. Observational study among 139 GPs. Data from 933 consecutive patients treated with a maximum of two oral glucose lowering drugs, collected at baseline and after twelve months. GPs estimated the CHD risk themselves and afterwards they calculated this with the UKPDS risk engine. Under- and overestimation were defined as a difference >5 percentage points difference between both calculations. The impact of the UKPDS risk engine was assessed by measuring differences in medication adjustments between the over-, under- and accurately estimated group. In 42.0% the GP accurately estimated the CHD risk, in 32.4% the risk was underestimated and in 25.6% overestimated. Mean difference between the estimated (18.7%) and calculated (19.1%) 10 years CHD risk was -0.36% (95% CI -1.24 to 0.52). Male gender, current smoking and total cholesterol level were associated with underestimation. Patients with an subjectively underestimated CHD risk received significantly more medication adjustments. Their UKPDS 10 year CHD risk did not increase during the follow-up period, contrary to the other two groups of patients. The UKPDS risk engine may be of added value for risk management in T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

    PubMed

    Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2018-06-01

    Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Global Kalman filter approaches to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments.

    PubMed

    Nogueira, Samuel L; Lambrecht, Stefan; Inoue, Roberto S; Bortole, Magdo; Montagnoli, Arlindo N; Moreno, Juan C; Rocon, Eduardo; Terra, Marco H; Siqueira, Adriano A G; Pons, Jose L

    2017-05-16

    In this paper we propose the use of global Kalman filters (KFs) to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments. Standard approaches adopt KFs to improve the performance of inertial sensors based on individual link configurations. In consequence, for a multi-body system like a lower limb exoskeleton, the inertial measurements of one link (e.g., the shank) are not taken into account in other link angle estimations (e.g., foot). Global KF approaches, on the other hand, correlate the collective contribution of all signals from lower limb segments observed in the state-space model through the filtering process. We present a novel global KF (matricial global KF) relying only on inertial sensor data, and validate both this KF and a previously presented global KF (Markov Jump Linear Systems, MJLS-based KF), which fuses data from inertial sensors and encoders from an exoskeleton. We furthermore compare both methods to the commonly used local KF. The results indicate that the global KFs performed significantly better than the local KF, with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of respectively 0.942° for the MJLS-based KF, 1.167° for the matrical global KF, and 1.202° for the local KFs. Including the data from the exoskeleton encoders also resulted in a significant increase in performance. The results indicate that the current practice of using KFs based on local models is suboptimal. Both the presented KF based on inertial sensor data, as well our previously presented global approach fusing inertial sensor data with data from exoskeleton encoders, were superior to local KFs. We therefore recommend to use global KFs for gait analysis and exoskeleton control.

  16. Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Lum, K.

    2002-01-01

    In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

  17. A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Schneider, Uwe

    2013-03-01

    Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

  18. Estimating Radiogenic Cancer Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document presents a revised methodology for EPA's estimation of cancer risks due to low-LET radiation exposures developed in light of information that has become available, especially new information on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

  19. [Estimation of individual breast cancer risk: relevance and limits of risk estimation models].

    PubMed

    De Pauw, A; Stoppa-Lyonnet, D; Andrieu, N; Asselain, B

    2009-10-01

    Several risk estimation models for breast or ovarian cancers have been developed these last decades. All these models take into account the family history, with different levels of sophistication. Gail model was developed in 1989 taking into account the family history (0, 1 or > or = 2 affected relatives) and several environmental factors. In 1990, Claus model was the first to integrate explicit assumptions about genetic effects, assuming a single gene dominantly inherited occurring with a low frequency in the population. BRCAPRO model, posterior to the identification of BRCA1 and BRCA2, assumes a restricted transmission with only these two dominantly inherited genes. BOADICEA model adds the effect of a polygenic component to the effect of BRCA1 and BRCA2 to explain the residual clustering of breast cancer. At last, IBIS model assumes a third dominantly inherited gene to explain this residual clustering. Moreover, this model incorporates environmental factors. We applied the Claus, BRCAPRO, BOADICEA and IBIS models to four clinical situations, corresponding to more or less heavy family histories, in order to study the consistency of the risk estimates. The three more recent models (BRCAPRO, BOADICEA and IBIS) gave the closer estimations. These estimates could be useful in clinical practice in front of complex analysis of breast and/or ovarian cancers family history.

  20. UPPER BOUND RISK ESTIMATES FOR MIXTURES OF CARCINOGENS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The excess cancer risk that might result from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens usually is estimated with data from experiments conducted on individual chemicals. An upper bound on the total excess risk is estimated commonly by summing individual upper bound risk esti...

  1. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate future risk of blindness and lower limb amputation in patients with diabetes: cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Coupland, Carol

    2015-01-01

    Study question Is it possible to develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate the 10 year risk of blindness and lower limb amputation in patients with diabetes aged 25-84 years? Methods This was a prospective cohort study using routinely collected data from general practices in England contributing to the QResearch and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) databases during the study period 1998-2014. The equations were developed using 763 QResearch practices (n=454 575 patients with diabetes) and validated in 254 different QResearch practices (n=142 419) and 357 CPRD practices (n=206 050). Cox proportional hazards models were used to derive separate risk equations for blindness and amputation in men and women that could be evaluated at 10 years. Measures of calibration and discrimination were calculated in the two validation cohorts. Study answer and limitations Risk prediction equations to quantify absolute risk of blindness and amputation in men and women with diabetes have been developed and externally validated. In the QResearch derivation cohort, 4822 new cases of lower limb amputation and 8063 new cases of blindness occurred during follow-up. The risk equations were well calibrated in both validation cohorts. Discrimination was good in men in the external CPRD cohort for amputation (D statistic 1.69, Harrell’s C statistic 0.77) and blindness (D statistic 1.40, Harrell’s C statistic 0.73), with similar results in women and in the QResearch validation cohort. The algorithms are based on variables that patients are likely to know or that are routinely recorded in general practice computer systems. They can be used to identify patients at high risk for prevention or further assessment. Limitations include lack of formally adjudicated outcomes, information bias, and missing data. What this study adds Patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes are at increased risk of blindness and amputation but generally do not have accurate

  2. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate future risk of blindness and lower limb amputation in patients with diabetes: cohort study.

    PubMed

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2015-11-11

    Is it possible to develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate the 10 year risk of blindness and lower limb amputation in patients with diabetes aged 25-84 years? This was a prospective cohort study using routinely collected data from general practices in England contributing to the QResearch and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) databases during the study period 1998-2014. The equations were developed using 763 QResearch practices (n=454,575 patients with diabetes) and validated in 254 different QResearch practices (n=142,419) and 357 CPRD practices (n=206,050). Cox proportional hazards models were used to derive separate risk equations for blindness and amputation in men and women that could be evaluated at 10 years. Measures of calibration and discrimination were calculated in the two validation cohorts. Risk prediction equations to quantify absolute risk of blindness and amputation in men and women with diabetes have been developed and externally validated. In the QResearch derivation cohort, 4822 new cases of lower limb amputation and 8063 new cases of blindness occurred during follow-up. The risk equations were well calibrated in both validation cohorts. Discrimination was good in men in the external CPRD cohort for amputation (D statistic 1.69, Harrell's C statistic 0.77) and blindness (D statistic 1.40, Harrell's C statistic 0.73), with similar results in women and in the QResearch validation cohort. The algorithms are based on variables that patients are likely to know or that are routinely recorded in general practice computer systems. They can be used to identify patients at high risk for prevention or further assessment. Limitations include lack of formally adjudicated outcomes, information bias, and missing data. Patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes are at increased risk of blindness and amputation but generally do not have accurate assessments of the magnitude of their individual risks. The new algorithms calculate

  3. Surveying implicit solvent models for estimating small molecule absolute hydration free energies

    PubMed Central

    Knight, Jennifer L.

    2011-01-01

    Implicit solvent models are powerful tools in accounting for the aqueous environment at a fraction of the computational expense of explicit solvent representations. Here, we compare the ability of common implicit solvent models (TC, OBC, OBC2, GBMV, GBMV2, GBSW, GBSW/MS, GBSW/MS2 and FACTS) to reproduce experimental absolute hydration free energies for a series of 499 small neutral molecules that are modeled using AMBER/GAFF parameters and AM1-BCC charges. Given optimized surface tension coefficients for scaling the surface area term in the nonpolar contribution, most implicit solvent models demonstrate reasonable agreement with extensive explicit solvent simulations (average difference 1.0-1.7 kcal/mol and R2=0.81-0.91) and with experimental hydration free energies (average unsigned errors=1.1-1.4 kcal/mol and R2=0.66-0.81). Chemical classes of compounds are identified that need further optimization of their ligand force field parameters and others that require improvement in the physical parameters of the implicit solvent models themselves. More sophisticated nonpolar models are also likely necessary to more effectively represent the underlying physics of solvation and take the quality of hydration free energies estimated from implicit solvent models to the next level. PMID:21735452

  4. Risk estimation using probability machines

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  5. Risk estimation using probability machines.

    PubMed

    Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

    2014-03-01

    Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

  6. Absolute marine gravimetry with matter-wave interferometry.

    PubMed

    Bidel, Y; Zahzam, N; Blanchard, C; Bonnin, A; Cadoret, M; Bresson, A; Rouxel, D; Lequentrec-Lalancette, M F

    2018-02-12

    Measuring gravity from an aircraft or a ship is essential in geodesy, geophysics, mineral and hydrocarbon exploration, and navigation. Today, only relative sensors are available for onboard gravimetry. This is a major drawback because of the calibration and drift estimation procedures which lead to important operational constraints. Atom interferometry is a promising technology to obtain onboard absolute gravimeter. But, despite high performances obtained in static condition, no precise measurements were reported in dynamic. Here, we present absolute gravity measurements from a ship with a sensor based on atom interferometry. Despite rough sea conditions, we obtained precision below 10 -5  m s -2 . The atom gravimeter was also compared with a commercial spring gravimeter and showed better performances. This demonstration opens the way to the next generation of inertial sensors (accelerometer, gyroscope) based on atom interferometry which should provide high-precision absolute measurements from a moving platform.

  7. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    PubMed

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  8. Improved Strategies and Optimization of Calibration Models for Real-time PCR Absolute Quantification

    EPA Science Inventory

    Real-time PCR absolute quantification applications rely on the use of standard curves to make estimates of DNA target concentrations in unknown samples. Traditional absolute quantification approaches dictate that a standard curve must accompany each experimental run. However, t...

  9. The Absolute Risk of Venous Thrombosis after Air Travel: A Cohort Study of 8,755 Employees of International Organisations

    PubMed Central

    Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Middeldorp, Saskia; Robyn, Luc; Büller, Harry R; Rosendaal, Frits R

    2007-01-01

    Background The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. Methods and Findings We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY). The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8–5.6). This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. Conclusions The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups. PMID:17896862

  10. Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

    PubMed

    Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

    2012-10-01

    Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

  11. Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

    PubMed

    Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

  12. A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

    PubMed

    Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

    2015-05-15

    Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

  13. [Prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia].

    PubMed

    Szerafin, László; Jakó, János; Riskó, Ferenc

    2015-04-01

    The low peripheral absolute lymphocyte and high monocyte count have been reported to correlate with poor clinical outcome in various lymphomas and other cancers. However, a few data known about the prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The aim of the authors was to investigate the impact of absolute monocyte count measured at the time of diagnosis in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia on the time to treatment and overal survival. Between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012, 223 patients with newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia were included. The rate of patients needing treatment, time to treatment, overal survival and causes of mortality based on Rai stages, CD38, ZAP-70 positivity and absolute monocyte count were analyzed. Therapy was necessary in 21.1%, 57.4%, 88.9%, 88.9% and 100% of patients in Rai stage 0, I, II, III an IV, respectively; in 61.9% and 60.8% of patients exhibiting CD38 and ZAP-70 positivity, respectively; and in 76.9%, 21.2% and 66.2% of patients if the absolute monocyte count was <0.25 G/l, between 0.25-0.75 G/l and >0.75 G/l, respectively. The median time to treatment and the median overal survival were 19.5, 65, and 35.5 months; and 41.5, 65, and 49.5 months according to the three groups of monocyte counts. The relative risk of beginning the therapy was 1.62 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count <0.25 G/l or >0.75 G/l, as compared to those with 0.25-0.75 G/l, and the risk of overal survival was 2.41 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count lower than 0.25 G/l as compared to those with higher than 0.25 G/l. The relative risks remained significant in Rai 0 patients, too. The leading causes of mortality were infections (41.7%) and the chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (58.3%) in patients with low monocyte count, while tumours (25.9-35.3%) and other events (48.1 and 11.8%) occurred in patients with medium or high monocyte counts. Patients with low and high monocyte

  14. Genetic polymorphisms for estimating risk of atrial fibrillation: a literature-based meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Smith, J. Gustav; Almgren, Peter; Engström, Gunnar; Hedblad, Bo; Platonov, Pyotr G.; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Melander, Olle

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Genome-wide association studies have recently identified genetic polymorphisms associated with common, etiologically complex diseases, for which direct-to-consumer genetic testing with provision of absolute genetic risk estimates is marketed by commercial companies. Polymorphisms associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) have shown relatively large risk estimates but the robustness of such estimates across populations and study designs has not been studied. Design A systematic literature review with meta-analysis and assessment of between-study heterogeneity was performed for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the six genetic regions associated with AF in genome-wide or candidate gene studies. Results Data from 18 samples of European ancestry (n=12,100 cases; 115,702 controls) were identified for the SNP on chromosome 4q25 (rs220733), 16 samples (n=12,694 cases; 132,602 controls) for the SNP on 16q22 (rs2106261) and 4 samples (n=5,272 cases; 59,725 controls) for the SNP in KCNH2 (rs1805123). Only the discovery studies were identified for SNPs on 1q21 and in GJA5 and IL6R, why no meta-analyses were performed for those SNPs. In overall random-effects meta-analyses, association with AF was observed for both SNPs from genome-wide studies on 4q25 (OR 1.67, 95% CI=1.50–1.86, p=2×10−21) and 16q22 (OR 1.21, 95% CI=1.13–1.29, p=1×10−8), but not the SNP in KCNH2 from candidate gene studies (p=0.15). There was substantial effect heterogeneity across case-control and cross-sectional studies for both polymorphisms (I2=0.50–0.78, p<0.05), but not across prospective cohort studies (I2=0.39, p=0.15). Both polymorphisms were robustly associated with AF for each study design individually (p<0.05). Conclusions In meta-analyses including up to 150,000 individuals, polymorphisms in two genetic regions were robustly associated with AF across all study designs but with substantial context-dependency of risk estimates. PMID:22690879

  15. Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses

    PubMed Central

    Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747

  16. A comparative study of volumetric breast density estimation in digital mammography and magnetic resonance imaging: results from a high-risk population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontos, Despina; Xing, Ye; Bakic, Predrag R.; Conant, Emily F.; Maidment, Andrew D. A.

    2010-03-01

    We performed a study to compare methods for volumetric breast density estimation in digital mammography (DM) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for a high-risk population of women. DM and MRI images of the unaffected breast from 32 women with recently detected abnormalities and/or previously diagnosed breast cancer (age range 31-78 yrs, mean 50.3 yrs) were retrospectively analyzed. DM images were analyzed using QuantraTM (Hologic Inc). The MRI images were analyzed using a fuzzy-C-means segmentation algorithm on the T1 map. Both methods were compared to Cumulus (Univ. Toronto). Volumetric breast density estimates from DM and MRI are highly correlated (r=0.90, p<=0.001). The correlation between the volumetric and the area-based density measures is lower and depends on the training background of the Cumulus software user (r=0.73-84, p<=0.001). In terms of absolute values, MRI provides the lowest volumetric estimates (mean=14.63%), followed by the DM volumetric (mean=22.72%) and area-based measures (mean=29.35%). The MRI estimates of the fibroglandular volume are statistically significantly lower than the DM estimates for women with very low-density breasts (p<=0.001). We attribute these differences to potential partial volume effects in MRI and differences in the computational aspects of the image analysis methods in MRI and DM. The good correlation between the volumetric and the area-based measures, shown to correlate with breast cancer risk, suggests that both DM and MRI volumetric breast density measures can aid in breast cancer risk assessment. Further work is underway to fully-investigate the association between volumetric breast density measures and breast cancer risk.

  17. Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

    PubMed

    Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

    2017-08-01

    Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Absolute fracture risk assessment using lumbar spine and femoral neck bone density measurements: derivation and validation of a hybrid system.

    PubMed

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M

    2011-03-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) computes 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture from multiple risk factors, including femoral neck (FN) T-scores. Lumbar spine (LS) measurements are not currently part of the FRAX formulation but are used widely in clinical practice, and this creates confusion when there is spine-hip discordance. Our objective was to develop a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system in which nonvertebral (NV) fracture risk was assessed from the FN and clinical vertebral (V) fracture risk was assessed from the LS. We identified 37,032 women age 45 years and older undergoing baseline FN and LS dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; 1990-2005) from a population database that contains all clinical DXA results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Results were linked to longitudinal health service records for physician billings and hospitalizations to identify nontrauma vertebral and nonvertebral fracture codes after bone mineral density (BMD) testing. The population was randomly divided into equal-sized derivation and validation cohorts. Using the derivation cohort, three fracture risk prediction systems were created from Cox proportional hazards models (adjusted for age and multiple FRAX risk factors): FN to predict combined all fractures, FN to predict nonvertebral fractures, and LS to predict vertebral (without nonvertebral) fractures. The hybrid system was the sum of nonvertebral risk from the FN model and vertebral risk from the LS model. The FN and hybrid systems were both strongly predictive of overall fracture risk (p < .001). In the validation cohort, ROC analysis showed marginally better performance of the hybrid system versus the FN system for overall fracture prediction (p = .24) and significantly better performance for vertebral fracture prediction (p < .001). In a discordance subgroup with FN and LS T-score differences greater than 1 SD, there was a significant

  19. [The concept of risk and its estimation].

    PubMed

    Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

    1996-01-01

    The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

  20. Estimate of the risk of radiation-induced cancers after linear-accelerator-based breast-cancer radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, Eui Kwan; Seo, Jungju; Baek, Tae Seong; Chung, Eun Ji; Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyun-ho

    2013-07-01

    The aim of this study is to assess and compare the excess absolute risks (EARs) of radiation-induced cancers following conformal (3D-CRT), fixed-field intensity-modulated (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc (RapidArc) radiation therapy in patients with breast cancer. 3D-CRT, IMRT and RapidArc were planned for 10 breast cancer patients. The organ-specific EAR for cancer induction was estimated using the organ equivalent dose (OED) based on computed dose volume histograms (DVHs) and the secondary doses measured at various points from the field edge. The average secondary dose per Gy treatment dose from 3D-CRT, measured 10 to 50 cm from the field edge, ranged from 8.27 to 1.04 mGy. The secondary doses per Gy from IMRT and RapidArc, however, ranged between 5.86 and 0.54 mGy, indicating that IMRT and RapidArc are associated with smaller doses of secondary radiation than 3D-CRT. The organ specific EARs for out-of-field organs, such as the thyroid, liver and colon, were higher with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. In contrast, EARs for in-field organs were much lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. The overall estimate of EAR indicated that the radiation-induced cancer risk was 1.8-2.0 times lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. Comparisons of EARs during breast irradiation suggested that the predicted risk of secondary cancers was lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc.

  1. Teaching Absolute Value Meaningfully

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wade, Angela

    2012-01-01

    What is the meaning of absolute value? And why do teachers teach students how to solve absolute value equations? Absolute value is a concept introduced in first-year algebra and then reinforced in later courses. Various authors have suggested instructional methods for teaching absolute value to high school students (Wei 2005; Stallings-Roberts…

  2. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    PubMed Central

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  3. An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hwang, J.S.; Chen, J.J.

    1999-12-01

    The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on anmore » underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. IN this paper the authors evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some of all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.« less

  4. Procedure for estimating orbital debris risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crafts, J. L.; Lindberg, J. P.

    1985-01-01

    A procedure for estimating the potential orbital debris risk to the world's populace from payloads or spent stages left in orbit on future missions is presented. This approach provides a consistent, but simple, procedure to assess the risk due to random reentry with an adequate accuracy level for making programmatic decisions on planned low Earth orbit missions.

  5. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  6. Mammographic Density Phenotypes and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Graff, Rebecca E.; Ursin, Giske; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; McCormack, Valerie; Baglietto, Laura; Vachon, Celine; Bakker, Marije F.; Giles, Graham G.; Chia, Kee Seng; Czene, Kamila; Eriksson, Louise; Hall, Per; Hartman, Mikael; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Hislop, Greg; Chiarelli, Anna M.; Hopper, John L.; Krishnan, Kavitha; Li, Jingmei; Li, Qing; Pagano, Ian; Rosner, Bernard A.; Wong, Chia Siong; Scott, Christopher; Stone, Jennifer; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Boyd, Norman F.; van Gils, Carla H.

    2014-01-01

    Background Fibroglandular breast tissue appears dense on mammogram, whereas fat appears nondense. It is unclear whether absolute or percentage dense area more strongly predicts breast cancer risk and whether absolute nondense area is independently associated with risk. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of 13 case–control studies providing results from logistic regressions for associations between one standard deviation (SD) increments in mammographic density phenotypes and breast cancer risk. We used random-effects models to calculate pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All tests were two-sided with P less than .05 considered to be statistically significant. Results Among premenopausal women (n = 1776 case patients; n = 2834 control subjects), summary odds ratios were 1.37 (95% CI = 1.29 to 1.47) for absolute dense area, 0.78 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.86) for absolute nondense area, and 1.52 (95% CI = 1.39 to 1.66) for percentage dense area when pooling estimates adjusted for age, body mass index, and parity. Corresponding odds ratios among postmenopausal women (n = 6643 case patients; n = 11187 control subjects) were 1.38 (95% CI = 1.31 to 1.44), 0.79 (95% CI = 0.73 to 0.85), and 1.53 (95% CI = 1.44 to 1.64). After additional adjustment for absolute dense area, associations between absolute nondense area and breast cancer became attenuated or null in several studies and summary odds ratios became 0.82 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.94; P heterogeneity = .02) for premenopausal and 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75 to 0.96; P heterogeneity < .01) for postmenopausal women. Conclusions The results suggest that percentage dense area is a stronger breast cancer risk factor than absolute dense area. Absolute nondense area was inversely associated with breast cancer risk, but it is unclear whether the association is independent of absolute dense area. PMID:24816206

  7. Absolute change in fasting plasma glucose over 12 months is associated with 2-year and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with drug-eluting stent implants.

    PubMed

    Kang, Dong Oh; Seo, Hong Seog; Choi, Byung Geol; Lee, Eunmi; Kim, Ji Park; Lee, Sun Ki; Im, Sung Il; Na, Jin Oh; Choi, Cheol Ung; Lim, Hong Euy; Kim, Jin Won; Kim, Eung Ju; Rha, Seung-Woon; Park, Chang Gyu; Oh, Dong Joo

    2015-01-20

    Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with or without cardiovascular disease (CVD) are greatly affected by various factors associated with metabolism and inflammation. To determine which clinical parameters at treatment are associated with the development of 2-year and 5-year MACEs in high-risk patients with CVD who have undergone drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. The present study involved a total of 432 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention with DES. Variables representing the average and absolute amount of change in clinical parameters over the 12-month follow-up were assessed for association with 2-year and 5-year development of MACE. The study population was divided into quartiles for the variable showing the highest correlation to MACE development. Estimated incidence of 2-year and 5-year MACEs for each of the quartiles was determined by survival curve analysis, and subgroup analysis was performed for patients with diabetes and statin users. Absolute change in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) over 12 months showed the highest correlation with 2-year and 5-year MACE development. The estimated incidence of MACE increased with increasing quartiles for absolute change in FPG. The association between absolute change in FPG and MACE development exhibited a stronger relationship for the specific subgroups of patients with diabetes and statin users. Increases and decreases in FPG had a comparable contribution to MACE development. A greater absolute change in FPG over 12 months post-PCI is an independent risk factor for 2-year and 5-year MACE development in DES-implanted patients, especially in the diabetes and statin users. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Validating the absolute reliability of a fat free mass estimate equation in hemodialysis patients using near-infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Kono, Kenichi; Nishida, Yusuke; Moriyama, Yoshihumi; Taoka, Masahiro; Sato, Takashi

    2015-06-01

    The assessment of nutritional states using fat free mass (FFM) measured with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is clinically useful. This measurement should incorporate the patient's post-dialysis weight ("dry weight"), in order to exclude the effects of any change in water mass. We therefore used NIRS to investigate the regression, independent variables, and absolute reliability of FFM in dry weight. The study included 47 outpatients from the hemodialysis unit. Body weight was measured before dialysis, and FFM was measured using NIRS before and after dialysis treatment. Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the FFM in dry weight as the dependent variable. The measured FFM before dialysis treatment (Mw-FFM), and the difference between measured and dry weight (Mw-Dw) were independent variables. We performed Bland-Altman analysis to detect errors between the statistically estimated FFM and the measured FFM after dialysis treatment. The multiple regression equation to estimate the FFM in dry weight was: Dw-FFM = 0.038 + (0.984 × Mw-FFM) + (-0.571 × [Mw-Dw]); R(2)  = 0.99). There was no systematic bias between the estimated and the measured values of FFM in dry weight. Using NIRS, FFM in dry weight can be calculated by an equation including FFM in measured weight and the difference between the measured weight and the dry weight. © 2015 The Authors. Therapeutic Apheresis and Dialysis © 2015 International Society for Apheresis.

  9. Effects of communicating DNA-based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing behaviours.

    PubMed

    Marteau, Theresa M; French, David P; Griffin, Simon J; Prevost, A T; Sutton, Stephen; Watkinson, Clare; Attwood, Sophie; Hollands, Gareth J

    2010-10-06

    There are high expectations regarding the potential for the communication of DNA-based disease risk estimates to motivate behaviour change. To assess the effects of communicating DNA-based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing behaviours and motivation to undertake such behaviours. We searched the following databases using keywords and medical subject headings: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 4 2010), MEDLINE (1950 to April 2010), EMBASE (1980 to April 2010), PsycINFO (1985 to April 2010) using OVID SP, and CINAHL (EBSCO) (1982 to April 2010). We also searched reference lists, conducted forward citation searches of potentially eligible articles and contacted authors of relevant studies for suggestions. There were no language restrictions. Unpublished or in press articles were eligible for inclusion. Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials involving adults (aged 18 years and over) in which one group received actual (clinical studies) or imagined (analogue studies) personalised DNA-based disease risk estimates for diseases for which the risk could plausibly be reduced by behavioural change. Eligible studies had to include a primary outcome measure of risk-reducing behaviour or motivation (e.g. intention) to alter such behaviour. Two review authors searched for studies and independently extracted data. We assessed risk of bias according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. For continuous outcome measures, we report effect sizes as standardised mean differences (SMDs). For dichotomous outcome measures, we report effect sizes as odds ratios (ORs). We obtained pooled effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the random effects model applied on the scale of standardised differences and log odds ratios. We examined 5384 abstracts and identified 21 studies as potentially eligible. Following a full text analysis, we included 14 papers reporting results of 7 clinical

  10. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for...

  11. Possible association between ocular chloramphenicol and aplastic anaemia—the absolute risk is very low

    PubMed Central

    Laporte, Joan-Ramon; Vidal, Xavier; Ballarín, Elena; Ibáñez, Luisa

    1998-01-01

    Aims To determine whether topical ocular chloramphenicol increases the risk of aplastic anaemia and to estimate the magnitude of this risk, if any. Methods Population-based prospective case-control surveillance of aplastic anaemia in a community of 4.2 million inhabitants from 1980 to 1995 (67.2 million person-years) plus case-population estimate of the risk, based on sales figures of ocular chloramphenicol in the study area during the study period. Results One hundred and forty-five patients with aplastic anaemia and 1,226 controls were included in the analysis. Three cases (2.1%) and 5 controls (0.4%) had been exposed to ocular chloramphenicol during the relevant etiological period. The adjusted odds ratio was 3.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–16.90). Two cases had also been exposed to other known causes of aplastic anaemia. The incidence of aplastic anaemia among users of ocular chloramphenicol was 0.36 cases per million weeks of treatment. The incidence among non users was 0.04 cases per million weeks. Conclusions An association between ocular chloramphenicol and aplastic anaemia cannot be excluded. However, the risk is less than one per million treatment courses. PMID:9723830

  12. Absolute and relative educational inequalities in depression in Europe.

    PubMed

    Dudal, Pieter; Bracke, Piet

    2016-09-01

    To investigate (1) the size of absolute and relative educational inequalities in depression, (2) their variation between European countries, and (3) their relationship with underlying prevalence rates. Analyses are based on the European Social Survey, rounds three and six (N = 57,419). Depression is measured using the shortened Centre of Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Education is coded by use of the International Standard Classification of Education. Country-specific logistic regressions are applied. Results point to an elevated risk of depressive symptoms among the lower educated. The cross-national patterns differ between absolute and relative measurements. For men, large relative inequalities are found for countries including Denmark and Sweden, but are accompanied by small absolute inequalities. For women, large relative and absolute inequalities are found in Belgium, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Results point to an empirical association between inequalities and the underlying prevalence rates. However, the strength of the association is only moderate. This research stresses the importance of including both measurements for comparative research and suggests the inclusion of the level of population health in research into inequalities in health.

  13. Easy Absolute Values? Absolutely

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Sharon E.; Mittag, Kathleen Cage

    2015-01-01

    The authors teach a problem-solving course for preservice middle-grades education majors that includes concepts dealing with absolute-value computations, equations, and inequalities. Many of these students like mathematics and plan to teach it, so they are adept at symbolic manipulations. Getting them to think differently about a concept that they…

  14. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks.

    PubMed

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-08-15

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. CubeSat mission design software tool for risk estimating relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gamble, Katharine Brumbaugh; Lightsey, E. Glenn

    2014-09-01

    In an effort to make the CubeSat risk estimation and management process more scientific, a software tool has been created that enables mission designers to estimate mission risks. CubeSat mission designers are able to input mission characteristics, such as form factor, mass, development cycle, and launch information, in order to determine the mission risk root causes which historically present the highest risk for their mission. Historical data was collected from the CubeSat community and analyzed to provide a statistical background to characterize these Risk Estimating Relationships (RERs). This paper develops and validates the mathematical model based on the same cost estimating relationship methodology used by the Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model (USCM) and the Small Satellite Cost Model (SSCM). The RER development uses general error regression models to determine the best fit relationship between root cause consequence and likelihood values and the input factors of interest. These root causes are combined into seven overall CubeSat mission risks which are then graphed on the industry-standard 5×5 Likelihood-Consequence (L-C) chart to help mission designers quickly identify areas of concern within their mission. This paper is the first to document not only the creation of a historical database of CubeSat mission risks, but, more importantly, the scientific representation of Risk Estimating Relationships.

  16. Absolutely relative or relatively absolute: violations of value invariance in human decision making.

    PubMed

    Teodorescu, Andrei R; Moran, Rani; Usher, Marius

    2016-02-01

    Making decisions based on relative rather than absolute information processing is tied to choice optimality via the accumulation of evidence differences and to canonical neural processing via accumulation of evidence ratios. These theoretical frameworks predict invariance of decision latencies to absolute intensities that maintain differences and ratios, respectively. While information about the absolute values of the choice alternatives is not necessary for choosing the best alternative, it may nevertheless hold valuable information about the context of the decision. To test the sensitivity of human decision making to absolute values, we manipulated the intensities of brightness stimuli pairs while preserving either their differences or their ratios. Although asked to choose the brighter alternative relative to the other, participants responded faster to higher absolute values. Thus, our results provide empirical evidence for human sensitivity to task irrelevant absolute values indicating a hard-wired mechanism that precedes executive control. Computational investigations of several modelling architectures reveal two alternative accounts for this phenomenon, which combine absolute and relative processing. One account involves accumulation of differences with activation dependent processing noise and the other emerges from accumulation of absolute values subject to the temporal dynamics of lateral inhibition. The potential adaptive role of such choice mechanisms is discussed.

  17. The fading American dream: Trends in absolute income mobility since 1940.

    PubMed

    Chetty, Raj; Grusky, David; Hell, Maximilian; Hendren, Nathaniel; Manduca, Robert; Narang, Jimmy

    2017-04-28

    We estimated rates of "absolute income mobility"-the fraction of children who earn more than their parents-by combining data from U.S. Census and Current Population Survey cross sections with panel data from de-identified tax records. We found that rates of absolute mobility have fallen from approximately 90% for children born in 1940 to 50% for children born in the 1980s. Increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates alone cannot restore absolute mobility to the rates experienced by children born in the 1940s. However, distributing current GDP growth more equally across income groups as in the 1940 birth cohort would reverse more than 70% of the decline in mobility. These results imply that reviving the "American dream" of high rates of absolute mobility would require economic growth that is shared more broadly across the income distribution. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. Cancer incidence and mortality risks in a large US Barrett's oesophagus cohort.

    PubMed

    Cook, Michael B; Coburn, Sally B; Lam, Jameson R; Taylor, Philip R; Schneider, Jennifer L; Corley, Douglas A

    2018-03-01

    Barrett's oesophagus (BE) increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 10-55 times that of the general population, but no community-based cancer-specific incidence and cause-specific mortality risk estimates exist for large cohorts in the USA. Within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we identified patients with BE diagnosed during 1995-2012. KPNC cancer registry and mortality files were used to estimate standardised incidence ratios (SIR), standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and excess absolute risks. There were 8929 patients with BE providing 50 147 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the greater KPNC population, patients with BE had increased risks of any cancer (SIR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.49), which slightly decreased after excluding oesophageal cancer. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was increased 24 times, which translated into an excess absolute risk of 24 cases per 10 000 person-years. Although oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk decreased with time since BE diagnosis, oesophageal cancer mortality did not, indicating that the true risk is stable and persistent with time. Relative risks of cardia and stomach cancers were increased, but excess absolute risks were modest. Risks of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers were unaltered. All-cause mortality was slightly increased after excluding oesophageal cancer (SMR=1.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.31), but time-stratified analyses indicated that this was likely attributable to diagnostic bias. Cause-specific SMRs were elevated for ischaemic heart disease (SMR=1.39, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.63), respiratory system diseases (SMR=1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.75) and digestive system diseases (SMR=2.20 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75). Patients with BE had a persistent excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma over time, although their absolute excess risks for this cancer, any cancer and overall mortality were modest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a

  19. Absolute risk representation in cardiovascular disease prevention: comprehension and preferences of health care consumers and general practitioners involved in a focus group study.

    PubMed

    Hill, Sophie; Spink, Janet; Cadilhac, Dominique; Edwards, Adrian; Kaufman, Caroline; Rogers, Sophie; Ryan, Rebecca; Tonkin, Andrew

    2010-03-04

    Communicating risk is part of primary prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke, collectively referred to as cardiovascular disease (CVD). In Australia, health organisations have promoted an absolute risk approach, thereby raising the question of suitable standardised formats for risk communication. Sixteen formats of risk representation were prepared including statements, icons, graphical formats, alone or in combination, and with variable use of colours. All presented the same risk, i.e., the absolute risk for a 55 year old woman, 16% risk of CVD in five years. Preferences for a five or ten-year timeframe were explored. Australian GPs and consumers were recruited for participation in focus groups, with the data analysed thematically and preferred formats tallied. Three focus groups with health consumers and three with GPs were held, involving 19 consumers and 18 GPs. Consumers and GPs had similar views on which formats were more easily comprehended and which conveyed 16% risk as a high risk. A simple summation of preferences resulted in three graphical formats (thermometers, vertical bar chart) and one statement format as the top choices. The use of colour to distinguish risk (red, yellow, green) and comparative information (age, sex, smoking status) were important ingredients. Consumers found formats which combined information helpful, such as colour, effect of changing behaviour on risk, or comparison with a healthy older person. GPs preferred formats that helped them relate the information about risk of CVD to their patients, and could be used to motivate patients to change behaviour.Several formats were reported as confusing, such as a percentage risk with no contextual information, line graphs, and icons, particularly those with larger numbers. Whilst consumers and GPs shared preferences, the use of one format for all situations was not recommended. Overall, people across groups felt that risk expressed over five years was preferable to a ten-year risk

  20. Absolute and relative risk of cardiovascular disease in men with prostate cancer: results from the Population-Based PCBaSe Sweden.

    PubMed

    Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Holmberg, Lars; Ingelsson, Erik; Bratt, Ola; Bill-Axelson, Anna; Lambe, Mats; Stattin, Pär; Adolfsson, Jan

    2010-07-20

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a potential adverse effect of endocrine treatment (ET) for prostate cancer (PC). We investigated absolute and relative CVD risk in 76,600 patients with PC undergoing ET, curative treatment, or surveillance. PCBaSe Sweden is based on the National Prostate Cancer Register, which covers more than 96% of PC cases. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, heart failure, and stroke were calculated to compare observed and expected (using total Swedish population) numbers of CVD, taking into account age, calendar time, and previous CVD. Between 1997 and 2007, 30,642 patients with PC received primary ET, 26,432 curative treatment, and 19,527 surveillance. SIRs for CVD were elevated in all men with the highest for those undergoing ET, independent of circulatory disease history (SIR MI for men without circulatory disease history: 1.40 [95% CI, 1.31 to 1.49], 1.15 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.31], and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.11 to 1.30] for men undergoing ET, curative treatment, and surveillance, respectively). Absolute risk differences (ARD) showed that two (arrhythmia) to eight (IHD) extra cases of CVD would occur per 1,000 person-years. SMRs showed similar patterns, with ARD of zero (arrhythmia) to three (IHD) per 1,000 person-years. Increased relative risks of nonfatal and fatal CVD were found among all men with PC, especially those treated with ET. Because ET is currently the only effective treatment for metastatic disease and the ARDs were rather small, our findings indicate that CVD risk should be considered when prescribing ET but should not constitute a contraindication when the expected gain is tangible.

  1. Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Maas, Paige; Barrdahl, Myrto; Joshi, Amit D.; Auer, Paul L.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Milne, Roger L.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Anderson, William F.; Check, David; Chattopadhyay, Subham; Baglietto, Laura; Berg, Christine D.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Cox, David G.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hoover, Robert N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, I-Min; Lindström, Sara; Overvad, Kim; Romieu, Isabelle; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Tumino, Rosario; VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Willett, Walter C.; Zhang, Shumin; Buring, Julie E.; Canzian, Federico; Gapstur, Susan M.; Henderson, Brian E.; Hunter, David J.; Giles, Graham G; Prentice, Ross L.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Kraft, Peter; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

    2017-01-01

    IMPORTANCE An improved model for risk stratification can be useful for guiding public health strategies of breast cancer prevention. OBJECTIVE To evaluate combined risk stratification utility of common low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and epidemiologic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a total of 17 171 cases and 19 862 controls sampled from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) and 5879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer was developed combining information on individual level data on epidemiologic risk factors and 24 genotyped SNPs from prospective cohort studies, published estimate of odds ratios for 68 additional SNPs, population incidence rate from the National Cancer Institute-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry and data on risk factor distribution from nationally representative health survey. The model is used to project the distribution of absolute risk for the population of white women in the United States after adjustment for competing cause of mortality. EXPOSURES Single nucleotide polymorphisms, family history, anthropometric factors, menstrual and/or reproductive factors, and lifestyle factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Degree of stratification of absolute risk owing to nonmodifiable (SNPs, family history, height, and some components of menstrual and/or reproductive history) and modifiable factors (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], menopausal hormone therapy [MHT], alcohol, and smoking). RESULTS The average absolute risk for a 30-year-old white woman in the United States developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%. A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively. For women who

  2. Comparison of elicitation potential of chloroatranol and atranol--2 allergens in oak moss absolute.

    PubMed

    Johansen, Jeanne D; Bernard, Guillaume; Giménez-Arnau, Elena; Lepoittevin, Jean-Pierre; Bruze, Magnus; Andersen, Klaus E

    2006-04-01

    Chloroatranol and atranol are degradation products of chloroatranorin and atranorin, respectively, and have recently been identified as important contact allergens in the natural fragrance extract, oak moss absolute. Oak moss absolute is widely used in perfumery and is the cause of many cases of fragrance allergic contact dermatitis. Chloroatranol elicits reactions at very low levels of exposure. In oak moss absolute, chloroatranol and atranol are present together and both may contribute to the allergenicity and eliciting capacity of the natural extract. In this study, 10 eczema patients with known sensitization to chloroatranol and oak moss absolute were tested simultaneously to a serial dilution of chloroatranol and atranol in ethanol, in equimolar concentrations (0.0034-1072 microM). Dose-response curves were estimated and analysed by logistic regression. The estimated difference in elicitation potency of chloroatranol relative to atranol based on testing with equimolar concentrations was 217% (95% confidence interval 116-409%). Both substances elicited reactions at very low levels of exposure. It is concluded that the differences in elicitation capacity between the 2 substances are counterbalanced by exposure being greater to atranol than to chloroatranol and that both substances contribute to the clinical problems seen in oak moss absolute-sensitized individuals.

  3. On cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution.

    PubMed Central

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1994-01-01

    The usefulness of data from various sources for a cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution is discussed. Considering the irreversibility of initiations, a multiplicative model is preferred for solid tumors. As has been concluded for exposure to ionizing radiation, the multiplicative model, in comparison with the additive model, predicts a relatively larger number of cases at high ages, with enhanced underestimation of risks by short follow-up times in disease-epidemiological studies. For related reasons, the extrapolation of risk from animal tests on the basis of daily absorbed dose per kilogram body weight or per square meter surface area without considering differences in life span may lead to an underestimation, and agreements with epidemiologically determined values may be fortuitous. Considering these possibilities, the most likely lifetime risks of cancer death at the average exposure levels in Sweden were estimated for certain pollution fractions or indicator compounds in urban air. The risks amount to approximately 50 deaths per 100,000 for inhaled particulate organic material (POM), with a contribution from ingested POM about three times larger, and alkenes, and butadiene cause 20 deaths, respectively, per 100,000 individuals. Also, benzene and formaldehyde are expected to be associated with considerable risk increments. Comparative potency methods were applied for POM and alkenes. Due to incompleteness of the list of compounds considered and the uncertainties of the above estimates, the total risk calculation from urban air has not been attempted here. PMID:7821292

  4. Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Nick; Selak, Vanessa; Blakely, Tony; Leung, William; Clarke, Philip; Jackson, Rod; Knight, Josh; Nghiem, Nhung

    2016-03-11

    Based on new systematic reviews of the evidence, the US Preventive Services Task Force has drafted updated guidelines on the use of low-dose aspirin for the primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The Task Force generally recommends consideration of aspirin in adults aged 50-69 years with 10-year CVD risk of at least 10%, in who absolute health gain (reduction of CVD and cancer) is estimated to exceed absolute health loss (increase in bleeds). With the ongoing decline in CVD, current risk calculators for New Zealand are probably outdated, so it is difficult to be precise about what proportion of the population is in this risk category (roughly equivalent to 5-year CVD risk ≥5%). Nevertheless, we suspect that most smokers aged 50-69 years, and some non-smokers, would probably meet the new threshold for taking low-dose aspirin. The country therefore needs updated guidelines and risk calculators that are ideally informed by estimates of absolute net health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per person) and cost-effectiveness. Other improvements to risk calculators include: epidemiological rigour (eg, by addressing competing mortality); providing enhanced graphical display of risk to enhance risk communication; and possibly capturing the issues of medication disutility and comparison with lifestyle changes.

  5. On the calculation of the absolute grand potential of confined smectic-A phases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chien-Cheng; Baus, Marc; Ryckaert, Jean-Paul

    2015-09-01

    We determine the absolute grand potential Λ along a confined smectic-A branch of a calamitic liquid crystal system enclosed in a slit pore of transverse area A and width L, using the rod-rod Gay-Berne potential and a rod-wall potential favouring perpendicular orientation at the walls. For a confined phase with an integer number of smectic layers sandwiched between the opposite walls, we obtain the excess properties (excess grand potential Λexc, solvation force fs and adsorption Γ) with respect to the bulk phase at the same μ (chemical potential) and T (temperature) state point. While usual thermodynamic integration methods are used along the confined smectic branch to estimate the grand potential difference as μ is varied at fixed L, T, the absolute grand potential at one reference state point is obtained via the evaluation of the absolute Helmholtz free energy in the (N, L, A, T) canonical ensemble. It proceeds via a sequence of free energy difference estimations involving successively the cost of localising rods on layers and the switching on of a one-dimensional harmonic field to keep layers integrity coupled to the elimination of inter-layers and wall interactions. The absolute free energy of the resulting set of fully independent layers of interacting rods is finally estimated via the existing procedures. This work opens the way to the computer simulation study of phase transitions implying confined layered phases.

  6. Regions of absolute ultimate boundedness for discrete-time systems.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siljak, D. D.; Weissenberger, S.

    1972-01-01

    This paper considers discrete-time systems of the Lur'e-Postnikov class where the linear part is not asymptotically stable and the nonlinear characteristic satisfies only partially the usual sector condition. Estimates of the resulting finite regions of absolute ultimate boundedness are calculated by means of a quadratic Liapunov function.

  7. Absolute biological needs.

    PubMed

    McLeod, Stephen

    2014-07-01

    Absolute needs (as against instrumental needs) are independent of the ends, goals and purposes of personal agents. Against the view that the only needs are instrumental needs, David Wiggins and Garrett Thomson have defended absolute needs on the grounds that the verb 'need' has instrumental and absolute senses. While remaining neutral about it, this article does not adopt that approach. Instead, it suggests that there are absolute biological needs. The absolute nature of these needs is defended by appeal to: their objectivity (as against mind-dependence); the universality of the phenomenon of needing across the plant and animal kingdoms; the impossibility that biological needs depend wholly upon the exercise of the abilities characteristic of personal agency; the contention that the possession of biological needs is prior to the possession of the abilities characteristic of personal agency. Finally, three philosophical usages of 'normative' are distinguished. On two of these, to describe a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' is to describe it as value-dependent. A description of a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' in the third sense does not entail such value-dependency, though it leaves open the possibility that value depends upon the phenomenon or upon the truth of the claim. It is argued that while survival needs (or claims about them) may well be normative in this third sense, they are normative in neither of the first two. Thus, the idea of absolute need is not inherently normative in either of the first two senses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Estimating the lifetime risk of cancer associated with multiple CT scans.

    PubMed

    Ivanov, V K; Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Menyaylo, A N; Pryakhin, E A; Tsyb, A F; Mettler, F A

    2014-12-01

    Multiple CT scans are often done on the same patient resulting in an increased risk of cancer. Prior publications have estimated risks on a population basis and often using an effective dose. Simply adding up the risks from single scans does not correctly account for the survival function. A methodology for estimating personal radiation risks attributed to multiple CT imaging using organ doses is presented in this article. The estimated magnitude of the attributable risk fraction for the possible development of radiation-induced cancer indicates the necessity for strong clinical justification when ordering multiple CT scans.

  9. Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction

    PubMed Central

    Vachon, Celine M; van Gils, Carla H; Sellers, Thomas A; Ghosh, Karthik; Pruthi, Sandhya; Brandt, Kathleen R; Pankratz, V Shane

    2007-01-01

    In this review, we examine the evidence for mammographic density as an independent risk factor for breast cancer, describe the risk prediction models that have incorporated density, and discuss the current and future implications of using mammographic density in clinical practice. Mammographic density is a consistent and strong risk factor for breast cancer in several populations and across age at mammogram. Recently, this risk factor has been added to existing breast cancer risk prediction models, increasing the discriminatory accuracy with its inclusion, albeit slightly. With validation, these models may replace the existing Gail model for clinical risk assessment. However, absolute risk estimates resulting from these improved models are still limited in their ability to characterize an individual's probability of developing cancer. Promising new measures of mammographic density, including volumetric density, which can be standardized using full-field digital mammography, will likely result in a stronger risk factor and improve accuracy of risk prediction models. PMID:18190724

  10. Chemical composition of French mimosa absolute oil.

    PubMed

    Perriot, Rodolphe; Breme, Katharina; Meierhenrich, Uwe J; Carenini, Elise; Ferrando, Georges; Baldovini, Nicolas

    2010-02-10

    Since decades mimosa (Acacia dealbata) absolute oil has been used in the flavor and perfume industry. Today, it finds an application in over 80 perfumes, and its worldwide industrial production is estimated five tons per year. Here we report on the chemical composition of French mimosa absolute oil. Straight-chain analogues from C6 to C26 with different functional groups (hydrocarbons, esters, aldehydes, diethyl acetals, alcohols, and ketones) were identified in the volatile fraction. Most of them are long-chain molecules: (Z)-heptadec-8-ene, heptadecane, nonadecane, and palmitic acid are the most abundant, and constituents such as 2-phenethyl alcohol, methyl anisate, and ethyl palmitate are present in smaller amounts. The heavier constituents were mainly triterpenoids such as lupenone and lupeol, which were identified as two of the main components. (Z)-Heptadec-8-ene, lupenone, and lupeol were quantified by GC-MS in SIM mode using external standards and represents 6%, 20%, and 7.8% (w/w) of the absolute oil. Moreover, odorant compounds were extracted by SPME and analyzed by GC-sniffing leading to the perception of 57 odorant zones, of which 37 compounds were identified by their odorant description, mass spectrum, retention index, and injection of the reference compound.

  11. What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing? The effect of context and numeracy.

    PubMed

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Miron-Shatz, Talya

    2012-07-01

    Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

  12. Trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors: repeated cross-sectional surveys from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) 1984–2008

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background There has been an overall decrease in incident ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but the reduction in IHD risk factors has been greater among those with higher social position. Increased social inequalities in IHD mortality in Scandinavian countries is often referred to as the Scandinavian “public health puzzle”. The objective of this study was to examine trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension and high total cholesterol) over the last three decades among Norwegian middle-aged women and men. Methods Population-based, cross-sectional data from The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT): HUNT 1 (1984–1986), HUNT 2 (1995–1997) and HUNT 3 (2006–2008), women and men 40–59 years old. Educational inequalities were assessed using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and The Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results Smoking prevalence increased for all education groups among women and decreased in men. Relative and absolute educational inequalities in smoking widened in both genders, with significantly higher absolute inequalities among women than men in the two last surveys. Diabetes prevalence increased in all groups. Relative inequalities in diabetes were stable, while absolute inequalities increased both among women (p = 0.05) and among men (p = 0.01). Hypertension prevalence decreased in all groups. Relative inequalities in hypertension widened over time in both genders. However, absolute inequalities in hypertension decreased among women (p = 0.05) and were stable among men (p = 0.33). For high total cholesterol relative and absolute inequalities remained stable in both genders. Conclusion Widening absolute educational inequalities in smoking and diabetes over the last three decades gives rise to concern. The mechanisms behind these results are less clear, and future studies are needed to assess if educational inequalities in

  13. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    PubMed

    Simarro, Pere P; Cecchi, Giuliano; Franco, José R; Paone, Massimo; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Ruiz-Postigo, José Antonio; Fèvre, Eric M; Mattioli, Raffaele C; Jannin, Jean G

    2012-01-01

    Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population. Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2) are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported. Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  14. The introduction of the absolute risk for the detection of fetal aneuploidies in the first-trimester screening.

    PubMed

    Padula, Francesco; Laganà, Antonio Simone; Vitale, Salvatore Giovanni; D'Emidio, Laura; Coco, Claudio; Giannarelli, Diana; Cariola, Maria; Favilli, Alessandro; Giorlandino, Claudio

    2017-05-01

    Maternal age is a crucial factor in fetal aneuploidy screening, resulting in an increased rate of false-positive cases in older women and false-negative cases in younger women. The absolute risk (AR) is the simplest way to eliminate the background maternal age risk, as it represents the amount of improvement of the combined risk from the maternal background risk. The aim of this work is to assess the performance of the AR in the combined first-trimester screening for aneuploidies. A retrospective validation of the AR in the combined first-trimester screening for fetal aneuploidies, in an unselected population at Altamedica Fetal-Maternal Medical Center in Rome, between March 2007 and December 2008. Of 3845 women included in the study, we had a complete follow-up on 2984. We evaluated that an AR < 3 would individuate 22 of 23 cases of aneuploidy with a detection rate of 95.7% (95%CI 87.3-100), a false-positive rate of 8.7% (95%CI 7.7-9.7) and a false-negative rate of 4.3% (95%CI 0-12.7). In our study, the AR ameliorates the detection rate for aneuploidy. Further research and a prospective study on a larger population would help us to improve the AR in detecting most cases of aneuploidy.

  15. Aspirin and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Approach Based on Individualized, Integrated Estimation of Risk.

    PubMed

    Volpe, Massimo; Battistoni, Allegra; Gallo, Giovanna; Coluccia, Roberta; De Caterina, Raffaele

    2017-09-01

    While the use of aspirin in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) is well established, aspirin in primary prevention is not systematically recommended because the absolute CV event reduction is similar to the absolute excess in major bleedings. Recently, emerging evidence suggests the possibility that the assumption of aspirin, may also be effective in the prevention of cancer. By adding to the CV prevention benefits the potential beneficial effect of aspirin in reducing the incidence of mortality and cancer could tip the balance between risks and benefits of aspirin therapy in the primary prevention in favour of the latter and broaden the indication for treatment with in populations at average risk. While prospective and randomized study are currently investigating the effect of aspirin in prevention of both cancer and CVD, clinical efforts at the individual level to promote the use of aspirin in global (or total) primary prevention could be already based on a balanced evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio.

  16. Minimum Expected Risk Estimation for Near-neighbor Classification

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-04-01

    We consider the problems of class probability estimation and classification when using near-neighbor classifiers, such as k-nearest neighbors ( kNN ...estimate for weighted kNN classifiers with different prior information, for a broad class of risk functions. Theory and simulations show how significant...the difference is compared to the standard maximum likelihood weighted kNN estimates. Comparisons are made with uniform weights, symmetric weights

  17. Jasminum flexile flower absolute from India--a detailed comparison with three other jasmine absolutes.

    PubMed

    Braun, Norbert A; Kohlenberg, Birgit; Sim, Sherina; Meier, Manfred; Hammerschmidt, Franz-Josef

    2009-09-01

    Jasminum flexile flower absolute from the south of India and the corresponding vacuum headspace (VHS) sample of the absolute were analyzed using GC and GC-MS. Three other commercially available Indian jasmine absolutes from the species: J. sambac, J. officinale subsp. grandiflorum, and J. auriculatum and the respective VHS samples were used for comparison purposes. One hundred and twenty-one compounds were characterized in J. flexile flower absolute, with methyl linolate, benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate, (2E,6E)-farnesol, and benzyl acetate as the main constituents. A detailed olfactory evaluation was also performed.

  18. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2011-12-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

  19. Screening Mammography: Patient Perceptions and Preferences Regarding Communication of Estimated Breast Cancer Risk.

    PubMed

    Amornsiripanitch, Nita; Mangano, Mark; Niell, Bethany L

    2017-05-01

    Many models exist to estimate a woman's risk of development of breast cancer. At screening mammography, many imaging centers collect data required for these models to identify women who may benefit from supplemental screening and referral for cancer risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to discern perceptions and preferences of screening mammography patients regarding communication of estimated breast cancer risk. An anonymous survey was distributed to screening and surveillance mammography patients between April and June 2015. Survey questions were designed to assess patient preferences regarding the receipt and complexity of risk estimate communication, including hypothetical scenarios with and without > 20% estimated risk of breast cancer. The McNemar test and the Wilcoxon signed rank test were used with p ≤ 0.05 considered statistically significant. The survey was distributed to 1061 screening and surveillance mammography patients, and 503 patients responded (response rate, 47%). Although 86% (431/503) of patients expressed interest in learning their estimated risk, only 8% (38/503) had undergone formal risk assessment. The preferred method (241 respondents [26%]) of communication of risk < 20% was a mailed letter accompanying annual mammogram results. For risk > 20%, patients preferred oral communication and were 10-fold as likely to choose only oral communication (p < 0.000001). For risk < 20% and > 20%, patients preferred to learn their estimated risk in great detail (69% and 85%), although women were significantly more likely to choose greater detail for risk > 20% (p < 0.00001). Screening mammography patients expressed interest in learning their estimated risk of breast cancer regardless of their level of hypothetical risk.

  20. Absolute plate motions relative to deep mantle plumes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shimin; Yu, Hongzheng; Zhang, Qiong; Zhao, Yonghong

    2018-05-01

    Advances in whole waveform seismic tomography have revealed the presence of broad mantle plumes rooted at the base of the Earth's mantle beneath major hotspots. Hotspot tracks associated with these deep mantle plumes provide ideal constraints for inverting absolute plate motions as well as testing the fixed hotspot hypothesis. In this paper, 27 observed hotspot trends associated with 24 deep mantle plumes are used together with the MORVEL model for relative plate motions to determine an absolute plate motion model, in terms of a maximum likelihood optimization for angular data fitting, combined with an outlier data detection procedure based on statistical tests. The obtained T25M model fits 25 observed trends of globally distributed hotspot tracks to the statistically required level, while the other two hotspot trend data (Comores on Somalia and Iceland on Eurasia) are identified as outliers, which are significantly incompatible with other data. For most hotspots with rate data available, T25M predicts plate velocities significantly lower than the observed rates of hotspot volcanic migration, which cannot be fully explained by biased errors in observed rate data. Instead, the apparent hotspot motions derived by subtracting the observed hotspot migration velocities from the T25M plate velocities exhibit a combined pattern of being opposite to plate velocities and moving towards mid-ocean ridges. The newly estimated net rotation of the lithosphere is statistically compatible with three recent estimates, but differs significantly from 30 of 33 prior estimates.

  1. Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Piegorsch, Walter W.; Xiong, Hui; Bhattacharya, Rabi N.; Lin, Lizhen

    2013-01-01

    Summary An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits’ small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations. PMID:23914133

  2. Remote ultrasound palpation for robotic interventions using absolute elastography.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Caitlin; Baghani, Ali; Rohling, Robert; Salcudean, Septimiu

    2012-01-01

    Although robotic surgery has addressed many of the challenges presented by minimally invasive surgery, haptic feedback and the lack of knowledge of tissue stiffness is an unsolved problem. This paper presents a system for finding the absolute elastic properties of tissue using a freehand ultrasound scanning technique, which utilizes the da Vinci Surgical robot and a custom 2D ultrasound transducer for intraoperative use. An external exciter creates shear waves in the tissue, and a local frequency estimation method computes the shear modulus. Results are reported for both phantom and in vivo models. This system can be extended to any 6 degree-of-freedom tracking method and any 2D transducer to provide real-time absolute elastic properties of tissue.

  3. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  4. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  5. Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

    PubMed

    Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

    2014-02-01

    Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p < 0.0001) for each outcome category. When surgeons perceived patient risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

    2017-09-06

    Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its

  7. Numerical model estimating the capabilities and limitations of the fast Fourier transform technique in absolute interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talamonti, James J.; Kay, Richard B.; Krebs, Danny J.

    1996-05-01

    A numerical model was developed to emulate the capabilities of systems performing noncontact absolute distance measurements. The model incorporates known methods to minimize signal processing and digital sampling errors and evaluates the accuracy limitations imposed by spectral peak isolation by using Hanning, Blackman, and Gaussian windows in the fast Fourier transform technique. We applied this model to the specific case of measuring the relative lengths of a compound Michelson interferometer. By processing computer-simulated data through our model, we project the ultimate precision for ideal data, and data containing AM-FM noise. The precision is shown to be limited by nonlinearities in the laser scan. absolute distance, interferometer.

  8. Risk of lung cancer associated with domestic use of coal in Xuanwei, China: retrospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Robert S; Silverman, Debra T; He, Xinghzhou; Hu, Wei; Vermeulen, Roel; Ning, Bofu; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

    2012-01-01

    Objective To estimate the risk of lung cancer associated with the use of different types of coal for household cooking and heating. Setting Xuanwei County, Yunnan Province, China. Design Retrospective cohort study (follow-up 1976-96) comparing mortality from lung cancer between lifelong users of “smoky coal” (bituminous) and “smokeless coal” (anthracite). Participants 27 310 individuals using smoky coal and 9962 individuals using smokeless coal during their entire life. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes were absolute and relative risk of death from lung cancer among users of different types of coal. Unadjusted survival analysis was used to estimate the absolute risk of lung cancer, while Cox regression models compared mortality hazards for lung cancer between smoky and smokeless coal users. Results Lung cancer mortality was substantially higher among users of smoky coal than users of smokeless coal. The absolute risks of lung cancer death before 70 years of age for men and women using smoky coal were 18% and 20%, respectively, compared with less than 0.5% among smokeless coal users of both sexes. Lung cancer alone accounted for about 40% of all deaths before age 60 among individuals using smoky coal. Compared with smokeless coal, use of smoky coal was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer death (for men, hazard ratio 36 (95% confidence interval 20 to 65); for women, 99 (37 to 266)). Conclusions In Xuanwei, the domestic use of smoky coal is associated with a substantial increase in the absolute lifetime risk of developing lung cancer and is likely to represent one of the strongest effects of environmental pollution reported for cancer risk. Use of less carcinogenic types of coal could translate to a substantial reduction of lung cancer risk. PMID:22936785

  9. Comparing risk estimates following diagnostic CT radiation exposures employing different methodological approaches.

    PubMed

    Kashcheev, Valery V; Pryakhin, Evgeny A; Menyaylo, Alexander N; Chekin, Sergey Yu; Ivanov, Viktor K

    2014-06-01

    The current study has two aims: the first is to quantify the difference between radiation risks estimated with the use of organ or effective doses, particularly when planning pediatric and adult computed tomography (CT) examinations. The second aim is to determine the method of calculating organ doses and cancer risk using dose-length product (DLP) for typical routine CT examinations. In both cases, the radiation-induced cancer risks from medical CT examinations were evaluated as a function of gender and age. Lifetime attributable risk values from CT scanning were estimated with the use of ICRP (Publication 103) risk models and Russian national medical statistics data. For populations under the age of 50 y, the risk estimates based on organ doses usually are 30% higher than estimates based on effective doses. In older populations, the difference can be up to a factor of 2.5. The typical distributions of organ doses were defined for Chest Routine, Abdominal Routine, and Head Routine examinations. The distributions of organ doses were dependent on the anatomical region of scanning. The most exposed organs/tissues were thyroid, breast, esophagus, and lungs in cases of Chest Routine examination; liver, stomach, colon, ovaries, and bladder in cases of Abdominal Routine examination; and brain for Head Routine examinations. The conversion factors for calculation of typical organ doses or tissues at risk using DLP were determined. Lifetime attributable risk of cancer estimated with organ doses calculated from DLP was compared with the risk estimated on the basis of organ doses measured with the use of silicon photodiode dosimeters. The estimated difference in LAR is less than 29%.

  10. Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

  11. Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

    PubMed

    Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Mobile Applications for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Estimation: a Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Fijacko, Nino; Brzan, Petra Povalej; Stiglic, Gregor

    2015-10-01

    Screening for chronical diseases like type 2 diabetes can be done using different methods and various risk tests. This study present a review of type 2 diabetes risk estimation mobile applications focusing on their functionality and availability of information on the underlying risk calculators. Only 9 out of 31 reviewed mobile applications, featured in three major mobile application stores, disclosed the name of risk calculator used for assessing the risk of type 2 diabetes. Even more concerning, none of the reviewed applications mentioned that they are collecting the data from users to improve the performance of their risk estimation calculators or offer users the descriptive statistics of the results from users that already used the application. For that purpose the questionnaires used for calculation of risk should be upgraded by including the information on the most recent blood sugar level measurements from users. Although mobile applications represent a great future potential for health applications, developers still do not put enough emphasis on informing the user of the underlying methods used to estimate the risk for a specific clinical condition.

  13. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  14. A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

    PubMed

    Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

    2012-06-01

    To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Use of screening tests to assess cancer risk and to estimate the risk of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.

    PubMed Central

    Yanagawa, T; Tokudome, S

    1990-01-01

    We developed methods to assess the cancer risks by screening tests. These methods estimate the size of the high risk group adjusted for the characteristics of screening tests and estimate the incidence rates of cancer among the high risk group adjusted for the characteristics of the tests. A method was also developed for selecting the cut-off point of a screening test. Finally, the methods were applied to estimate the risk of the adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. PMID:2269244

  16. Development and validation of risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of common cancers in men and women: prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2015-01-01

    Objective To derive and validate a set of clinical risk prediction algorithm to estimate the 10-year risk of 11 common cancers. Design Prospective open cohort study using routinely collected data from 753 QResearch general practices in England. We used 565 practices to develop the scores and 188 for validation. Subjects 4.96 million patients aged 25–84 years in the derivation cohort; 1.64 million in the validation cohort. Patients were free of the relevant cancer at baseline. Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive 10-year risk algorithms. Risk factors considered included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, alcohol, previous cancer diagnoses, family history of cancer, relevant comorbidities and medication. Measures of calibration and discrimination in the validation cohort. Outcomes Incident cases of blood, breast, bowel, gastro-oesophageal, lung, oral, ovarian, pancreas, prostate, renal tract and uterine cancers. Cancers were recorded on any one of four linked data sources (general practitioner (GP), mortality, hospital or cancer records). Results We identified 228 241 incident cases during follow-up of the 11 types of cancer. Of these 25 444 were blood; 41 315 breast; 32 626 bowel, 12 808 gastro-oesophageal; 32 187 lung; 4811 oral; 6635 ovarian; 7119 pancreatic; 35 256 prostate; 23 091 renal tract; 6949 uterine cancers. The lung cancer algorithm had the best performance with an R2 of 64.2%; D statistic of 2.74; receiver operating characteristic curve statistic of 0.91 in women. The sensitivity for the top 10% of women at highest risk of lung cancer was 67%. Performance of the algorithms in men was very similar to that for women. Conclusions We have developed and validated a prediction models to quantify absolute risk of 11 common cancers. They can be used to identify patients at high risk of cancers for prevention or further assessment. The algorithms could be integrated into clinical

  17. Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death.

    PubMed

    Merrill, R M; Kessler, L G; Udler, J M; Rasband, G C; Feuer, E J

    1999-02-01

    Lifetime risk estimates of disease are limited by long-term data extrapolations and are less relevant to individuals who have already lived a period of time without the disease, but are approaching the age at which the disease risk becomes common. In contrast, short-term age-conditional risk estimates, such as the risk of developing a disease in the next 10 years among those alive and free of the disease at a given age, are less restricted by long-term extrapolation of current rates and can present patients with risk information tailored to their age. This study focuses on short-term age-conditional risk estimates for a broad set of important chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death among white and black men and women. The Feuer et al. (1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute) [15] method was applied to data from a variety of sources to obtain risk estimates for select cancers, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and death from motor vehicle accidents, homicide or legal intervention, and suicide. Acute deaths from suicide, homicide or legal intervention, and fatal motor vehicle accidents dominate the risk picture for persons in their 20s, with only diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease therapy (for blacks only) having similar levels of risk in this age range. Late in life, cancer, acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer's, and stroke become most common. The chronic diseases affecting the population later in life present the most likely diseases someone will face. Several interesting differences in disease and death risks were derived and reported among age-specific race and gender subgroups of the population. Presentation of risk estimates for a broad set of chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death within short-term age ranges among population subgroups provides tailored information that may lead to better educated prevention, screening, and control behaviors and more efficient allocation of health

  18. Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

    PubMed

    Citrome, Leslie

    2009-09-01

    Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be

  19. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  20. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  1. Optimizing hidden layer node number of BP network to estimate fetal weight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Juan; Zou, Yuanwen; Lin, Jiangli; Wang, Tianfu; Li, Deyu; Xie, Tao

    2007-12-01

    The ultrasonic estimation of fetal weigh before delivery is of most significance for obstetrical clinic. Estimating fetal weight more accurately is crucial for prenatal care, obstetrical treatment, choosing appropriate delivery methods, monitoring fetal growth and reducing the risk of newborn complications. In this paper, we introduce a method which combines golden section and artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate the fetal weight. The golden section is employed to optimize the hidden layer node number of the back propagation (BP) neural network. The method greatly improves the accuracy of fetal weight estimation, and simultaneously avoids choosing the hidden layer node number with subjective experience. The estimation coincidence rate achieves 74.19%, and the mean absolute error is 185.83g.

  2. A fast signal subspace approach for the determination of absolute levels from phased microphone array measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarradj, Ennes

    2010-04-01

    Phased microphone arrays are used in a variety of applications for the estimation of acoustic source location and spectra. The popular conventional delay-and-sum beamforming methods used with such arrays suffer from inaccurate estimations of absolute source levels and in some cases also from low resolution. Deconvolution approaches such as DAMAS have better performance, but require high computational effort. A fast beamforming method is proposed that can be used in conjunction with a phased microphone array in applications with focus on the correct quantitative estimation of acoustic source spectra. This method bases on an eigenvalue decomposition of the cross spectral matrix of microphone signals and uses the eigenvalues from the signal subspace to estimate absolute source levels. The theoretical basis of the method is discussed together with an assessment of the quality of the estimation. Experimental tests using a loudspeaker setup and an airfoil trailing edge noise setup in an aeroacoustic wind tunnel show that the proposed method is robust and leads to reliable quantitative results.

  3. Estimating Risk from Ambient Concentrations of Acrolein across the United States

    PubMed Central

    Woodruff, Tracey J.; Wells, Ellen M.; Holt, Elizabeth W.; Burgin, Deborah E.; Axelrad, Daniel A.

    2007-01-01

    Background Estimated ambient concentrations of acrolein, a hazardous air pollutant, are greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reference concentration throughout the United States, making it a concern for human health. However, there is no method for assessing the extent of risk under the U.S. EPA noncancer risk assessment framework. Objectives We estimated excess risks from ambient concentrations of acrolein based on dose–response modeling of a study in rats with a relationship between acrolein and residual volume/total lung capacity ratio (RV/TLC) and specific compliance (sCL), markers for altered lung function. Methods Based on existing literature, we defined values above the 90th percentile for controls as “adverse.” We estimated the increase over baseline response that would occur in the human population from estimated ambient concentrations of acrolein, taken from the U.S. EPA’s National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment for 1999, after standard animal-to-human conversions and extrapolating to doses below the experimental data. Results The estimated median additional number of adverse sCL outcomes across the United States was approximately 2.5 cases per 1,000 people. The estimated range of additional outcomes from the 5th to the 95th percentile of acrolein concentration levels across census tracts was 0.28–14 cases per 1,000. For RV/TLC, the median additional outcome was 0.002 per 1,000, and the additional outcome at the 95th percentile was 0.13 per 1,000. Conclusions Although there are uncertainties in estimating human risks from animal data, this analysis demonstrates a method for estimating health risks for noncancer effects and suggests that acrolein could be associated with decreased respiratory function in the United States. PMID:17431491

  4. Left-sided breast cancer and risks of secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease : Effects of modern radiotherapy techniques.

    PubMed

    Corradini, Stefanie; Ballhausen, Hendrik; Weingandt, Helmut; Freislederer, Philipp; Schönecker, Stephan; Niyazi, Maximilian; Simonetto, Cristoforo; Eidemüller, Markus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus

    2018-03-01

    Modern breast cancer radiotherapy techniques, such as respiratory-gated radiotherapy in deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) or volumetric-modulated arc radiotherapy (VMAT) have been shown to reduce the high dose exposure of the heart in left-sided breast cancer. The aim of the present study was to comparatively estimate the excess relative and absolute risks of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease for different modern radiotherapy techniques. Four different treatment plans were generated for ten computed tomography data sets of patients with left-sided breast cancer, using either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) or VMAT, in free-breathing (FB) or DIBH. Dose-volume histograms were used for organ equivalent dose (OED) calculations using linear, linear-exponential, and plateau models for the lung. A linear model was applied to estimate the long-term risk of ischemic heart disease as motivated by epidemiologic data. Excess relative risk (ERR) and 10-year excess absolute risk (EAR) for radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease were estimated for different representative baseline risks. The DIBH maneuver resulted in a significant reduction of the ERR and estimated 10-year excess absolute risk for major coronary events compared to FB in 3D-CRT plans (p = 0.04). In VMAT plans, the mean predicted risk reduction through DIBH was less pronounced and not statistically significant (p = 0.44). The risk of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer was mainly influenced by the radiotherapy technique, with no beneficial effect through DIBH. VMAT plans correlated with an increase in 10-year EAR for radiation-induced lung cancer as compared to 3D-CRT plans (DIBH p = 0.007; FB p = 0.005, respectively). However, the EARs were affected more strongly by nonradiation-associated risk factors, such as smoking, as compared to the choice of treatment technique. The results indicate that 3D-CRT plans in DIBH pose the

  5. Breast Implants and the Risk of Anaplastic Large-Cell Lymphoma in the Breast.

    PubMed

    de Boer, Mintsje; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Hauptmann, Michael; Overbeek, Lucy I H; de Boer, Jan Paul; Hijmering, Nathalie J; Sernee, Arthur; Klazen, Caroline A H; Lobbes, Marc B I; van der Hulst, René R W J; Rakhorst, Hinne A; de Jong, Daphne

    2018-03-01

    Breast implants are among the most commonly used medical devices. Since 2008, the number of women with breast implants diagnosed with anaplastic large-cell lymphoma in the breast (breast-ALCL) has increased, and several reports have suggested an association between breast implants and risk of breast-ALCL. However, relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants are still unknown, precluding evidence-based counseling about implants. To determine relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Through the population-based nationwide Dutch pathology registry we identified all patients diagnosed with primary non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the breast between 1990 and 2016 and retrieved clinical data, including breast implant status, from the treating physicians. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) of ALCL associated with breast implants in a case-control design, comparing implant prevalence between women with breast-ALCL and women with other types of breast lymphoma. Cumulative risk of breast-ALCL was derived from the age-specific prevalence of breast implants in Dutch women, estimated from an examination of 3000 chest x-rays and time trends from implant sales. Relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Among 43 patients with breast-ALCL (median age, 59 years), 32 had ipsilateral breast implants, compared with 1 among 146 women with other primary breast lymphomas (OR, 421.8; 95% CI, 52.6-3385.2). Implants among breast-ALCL cases were more often macrotextured (23 macrotextured of 28 total implants of known type, 82%) than expected (49 193 sold macrotextured implants of total sold 109 449 between 2010 and 2015, 45%) based on sales data (P < .001). The estimated prevalence of breast implants in women aged 20 to 70 years was 3.3%. Cumulative risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants were 29 per million at 50 years and 82 per million at 70 years. The number of women with implants needed to cause 1

  6. Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

    Treesearch

    Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

    2004-01-01

    We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

  7. Novel Associations between Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Variants and Risk-Predicting Mammographic Density Measures

    PubMed Central

    Stone, Jennifer; Thompson, Deborah J.; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Scott, Christopher; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Lindstrom, Sara; Kraft, Peter; Hazra, Aditi; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Louise; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Jensen, Matt; Cunningham, Julie; Olson, Janet E.; Purrington, Kristen; Couch, Fergus J.; Brown, Judith; Leyland, Jean; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Luben, Robert N.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Smith, Paula; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Jud, Sebastian M.; Heusinger, Katharina; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Douglas, Julie A.; Shah, Kaanan P.; Chan, Heang-Ping; Helvie, Mark A.; Le Marchand, Loic; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Woolcott, Christy; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Haiman, Christopher; Giles, Graham G.; Baglietto, Laura; Krishnan, Kavitha; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Ursin, Giske; Grenaker Alnaes, Grethe I.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Gram, Inger Torhild; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Simard, Jacques; Paroah, Paul; Dunning, Alison M.; Easton, Douglas F.; Fasching, Peter A.; Pankratz, V. Shane; Hopper, John; Vachon, Celine M.

    2015-01-01

    Mammographic density measures adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) are heritable predictors of breast cancer risk but few mammographic density-associated genetic variants have been identified. Using data for 10,727 women from two international consortia, we estimated associations between 77 common breast cancer susceptibility variants and absolute dense area, percent dense area and absolute non-dense area adjusted for study, age and BMI using mixed linear modeling. We found strong support for established associations between rs10995190 (in the region of ZNF365), rs2046210 (ESR1) and rs3817198 (LSP1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas (all p <10−5). Of 41 recently discovered breast cancer susceptibility variants, associations were found between rs1432679 (EBF1), rs17817449 (MIR1972-2: FTO), rs12710696 (2p24.1), and rs3757318 (ESR1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas, respectively. There were associations between rs6001930 (MKL1) and both adjusted absolute dense and non-dense areas, and between rs17356907 (NTN4) and adjusted absolute non-dense area. Trends in all but two associations were consistent with those for breast cancer risk. Results suggested that 18% of breast cancer susceptibility variants were associated with at least one mammographic density measure. Genetic variants at multiple loci were associated with both breast cancer risk and the mammographic density measures. Further understanding of the underlying mechanisms at these loci could help identify etiological pathways implicated in how mammographic density predicts breast cancer risk. PMID:25862352

  8. Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

    2018-03-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

  9. Communication of uncertainty regarding individualized cancer risk estimates: effects and influential factors.

    PubMed

    Han, Paul K J; Klein, William M P; Lehman, Tom; Killam, Bill; Massett, Holly; Freedman, Andrew N

    2011-01-01

    To examine the effects of communicating uncertainty regarding individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates and to identify factors that influence these effects. Two Web-based experiments were conducted, in which adults aged 40 years and older were provided with hypothetical individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates differing in the extent and representation of expressed uncertainty. The uncertainty consisted of imprecision (otherwise known as "ambiguity") of the risk estimates and was communicated using different representations of confidence intervals. Experiment 1 (n = 240) tested the effects of ambiguity (confidence interval v. point estimate) and representational format (textual v. visual) on cancer risk perceptions and worry. Potential effect modifiers, including personality type (optimism), numeracy, and the information's perceived credibility, were examined, along with the influence of communicating uncertainty on responses to comparative risk information. Experiment 2 (n = 135) tested enhanced representations of ambiguity that incorporated supplemental textual and visual depictions. Communicating uncertainty led to heightened cancer-related worry in participants, exemplifying the phenomenon of "ambiguity aversion." This effect was moderated by representational format and dispositional optimism; textual (v. visual) format and low (v. high) optimism were associated with greater ambiguity aversion. However, when enhanced representations were used to communicate uncertainty, textual and visual formats showed similar effects. Both the communication of uncertainty and use of the visual format diminished the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. The communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates has complex effects, which include heightening cancer-related worry-consistent with ambiguity aversion-and diminishing the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. These responses are influenced by

  10. Estimating relative risks for common outcome using PROC NLP.

    PubMed

    Yu, Binbing; Wang, Zhuoqiao

    2008-05-01

    In cross-sectional or cohort studies with binary outcomes, it is biologically interpretable and of interest to estimate the relative risk or prevalence ratio, especially when the response rates are not rare. Several methods have been used to estimate the relative risk, among which the log-binomial models yield the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the parameters. Because of restrictions on the parameter space, the log-binomial models often run into convergence problems. Some remedies, e.g., the Poisson and Cox regressions, have been proposed. However, these methods may give out-of-bound predicted response probabilities. In this paper, a new computation method using the SAS Nonlinear Programming (NLP) procedure is proposed to find the MLEs. The proposed NLP method was compared to the COPY method, a modified method to fit the log-binomial model. Issues in the implementation are discussed. For illustration, both methods were applied to data on the prevalence of microalbuminuria (micro-protein leakage into urine) for kidney disease patients from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. The sample SAS macro for calculating relative risk is provided in the appendix.

  11. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    PubMed

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  12. R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of Pollution, Prevention & Toxics (OPPT)'s Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators model (RSEI). The model uses the reported quantities of TRI releases of chemicals to estimate the impacts associated with each type of air release or transfer by every TRI facility.The RSEI was run to generate the estimate risk for each TRI facility in the region. The result from the model is joined to the TRI spatial data. Estimate risk values for each census block group were calculated based on the inverse distance of all the facilities which are within a 50 km radius of the census block group centroid. The estimate risk value for each census block group thus is an aggregated value that takes into account the estimate potential risk of all the facilities within the searching radius (50km).

  13. Cancer risk communication in mainstream and ethnic newspapers.

    PubMed

    Stryker, Jo Ellen; Fishman, Jessica; Emmons, Karen M; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

    2009-01-01

    We wanted to understand how cancer risks are communicated in mainstream and ethnic newspapers, to determine whether the 2 kinds of newspapers differ and to examine features of news stories and sources that might predict optimal risk communication. Optimal risk communication was defined as presenting the combination of absolute risk, relative risk, and prevention response efficacy information. We collected data by conducting a content analysis of cancer news coverage from 2003 (5,327 stories in major newspapers, 565 stories in ethnic newspapers). Comparisons of mainstream and ethnic newspapers were conducted by using cross-tabulations and Pearson chi2 tests for significance. Logistic regression equations were computed to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for optimal risk communication. In both kinds of newspapers, cancer risks were rarely communicated numerically. When numeric presentations of cancer risks were used, only 26.2% of mainstream and 29.5% of ethnic newspaper stories provided estimates of both absolute and relative risk. For both kinds of papers, only 19% of news stories presented risk communication optimally. Cancer risks were more likely to be communicated optimally if they focused on prostate cancer, were reports of new research, or discussed medical or demographic risks. Research is needed to understand how these nonnumeric and decontextualized presentations of risk might contribute to inaccurate risk perceptions among news consumers.

  14. Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

    PubMed Central

    Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

  15. Timing of repeat BMD measurements: development of an absolute risk-based prognostic model.

    PubMed

    Frost, Steven A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Center, Jacqueline R; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V

    2009-11-01

    This study attempted to address the following questions: for an individual who is at present nonosteoporotic, given their current age and BMD level, what is the individual's risk of fracture and when is the ideal time to repeat a BMD measurement? Nonosteoporotic women (n = 1008) and men (n = 750) over the age of 60 in 1989 from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study were monitored until one of the following outcomes occurred: (1) BMD reached "osteoporosis" level (i.e., T-scores < or = -2.5) or (2) an incident fragility fracture. During the follow-up period (average, 7 yr), 346 women (34%) and 160 men (21%) developed osteoporosis or sustained a low-trauma fracture. The risk of osteoporosis or fracture increased with advancing age (women: RR/10 yr, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6; men: RR/10 yr, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-2.9) and lower BMD levels (women: RR per -0.12 g/cm(2), 3.2; 95% CI, 2.6-4.1; RR per -0.12 g/cm(2), 2.6; 95% CI, 2.0-3.3). Using the predicted risk (of osteoporosis or fracture) of 10% as a cut-off level for repeating BMD measurement, the estimated time to reach the cut-off level varied from 1.5 (for an 80-yr-old woman with a T-score of -2.2) to 10.6 yr (for a 60-yr-old man with a T-score of 0). These results suggest that, based on an individual's current age and BMD T-score, it is possible to estimate the optimal time to repeat BMD testing for the individual. The prognostic model and approach presented in this study may help improve the individualization and management of osteoporosis.

  16. Measurement of OEF and absolute CMRO2: MRI-based methods using interleaved and combined hypercapnia and hyperoxia

    PubMed Central

    Wise, Richard G.; Harris, Ashley D.; Stone, Alan; Murphy, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    Blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) is most commonly used in a semi-quantitative manner to infer changes in brain activity. Despite the basis of the image contrast lying in the cerebral venous blood oxygenation level, quantification of absolute cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen consumption (CMRO2) has only recently been demonstrated. Here we examine two approaches to the calibration of FMRI signal to measure absolute CMRO2 using hypercapnic and hyperoxic respiratory challenges. The first approach is to apply hypercapnia and hyperoxia separately but interleaved in time and the second is a combined approach in which we apply hyperoxic challenges simultaneously with different levels of hypercapnia. Eleven healthy volunteers were studied at 3T using a dual gradient-echo spiral readout pulsed arterial spin labelling (ASL) imaging sequence. Respiratory challenges were conducted using an automated system of dynamic end-tidal forcing. A generalised BOLD signal model was applied, within a Bayesian estimation framework, that aims to explain the effects of modulation of CBF and arterial oxygen content to estimate venous deoxyhaemoglobin concentration ([dHb]0). Using CBF measurements combined with the estimated oxygen extraction fraction (OEF), absolute CMRO2 was calculated. The interleaved approach to hypercapnia and hyperoxia, as well as yielding estimates of CMRO2 and OEF demonstrated a significant increase in regional CBF, venous oxygen saturation (SvO2) (a decrease in OEF) and absolute CMRO2 in visual cortex in response to a continuous (20 minute) visual task, demonstrating the potential for the method in measuring long term changes in CMRO2. The combined approach to oxygen and carbon dioxide modulation, as well as taking less time to acquire data, yielded whole brain grey matter estimates of CMRO2 and OEF of 184±45 μmol/100g/min and 0.42±0.12 respectively, along with additional estimates of the vascular parameters

  17. Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, Kerry A.; Rhone, J.; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2011-01-01

    To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space

  18. Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

  19. Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.

    PubMed

    Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong

    2013-11-01

    To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.

  20. Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

    PubMed

    van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

    2016-01-01

    Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Involved Node, Site, Field and Residual Volume Radiotherapy for Lymphoma: A Comparison of Organ at Risk Dosimetry and Second Malignancy Risks.

    PubMed

    Murray, L; Sethugavalar, B; Robertshaw, H; Bayman, E; Thomas, E; Gilson, D; Prestwich, R J D

    2015-07-01

    Recent radiotherapy guidelines for lymphoma have included involved site radiotherapy (ISRT), involved node radiotherapy (INRT) and irradiation of residual volume after full-course chemotherapy. In the absence of late toxicity data, we aim to compare organ at risk (OAR) dose-metrics and calculated second malignancy risks. Fifteen consecutive patients who had received mediastinal radiotherapy were included. Four radiotherapy plans were generated for each patient using a parallel pair photon technique: (i) involved field radiotherapy (IFRT), (ii) ISRT, (iii) INRT, (iv) residual post-chemotherapy volume. The radiotherapy dose was 30 Gy in 15 fractions. The OARs evaluated were: breasts, lungs, thyroid, heart, oesophagus. Relative and absolute second malignancy rates were estimated using the concept of organ equivalent dose. Significance was defined as P < 0.005. Compared with ISRT, IFRT significantly increased doses to lung, thyroid, heart and oesophagus, whereas INRT and residual volume techniques significantly reduced doses to all OARs. The relative risks of second cancers were significantly higher with IFRT compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid; INRT and residual volume resulted in significantly lower relative risks compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid. The median excess absolute risks of second cancers were consistently lowest for the residual technique and highest for IFRT in terms of thyroid, lung and breast cancers. The risk of oesophageal cancer was similar for all four techniques. Overall, the absolute risk of second cancers was very similar for ISRT and INRT. Decreasing treatment volumes from IFRT to ISRT, INRT or residual volume reduces radiation exposure to OARs. Second malignancy modelling suggests that this reduction in treatment volumes will lead to a reduction in absolute excess second malignancy. Little difference was observed in second malignancy risks between ISRT and INRT, supporting the use of ISRT in the absence of a pre

  2. The Berg Balance Scale has high intra- and inter-rater reliability but absolute reliability varies across the scale: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Downs, Stephen; Marquez, Jodie; Chiarelli, Pauline

    2013-06-01

    What is the intra-rater and inter-rater relative reliability of the Berg Balance Scale? What is the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale? Does the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale vary across the scale? Systematic review with meta-analysis of reliability studies. Any clinical population that has undergone assessment with the Berg Balance Scale. Relative intra-rater reliability, relative inter-rater reliability, and absolute reliability. Eleven studies involving 668 participants were included in the review. The relative intrarater reliability of the Berg Balance Scale was high, with a pooled estimate of 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 0.99). Relative inter-rater reliability was also high, with a pooled estimate of 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.98). A ceiling effect of the Berg Balance Scale was evident for some participants. In the analysis of absolute reliability, all of the relevant studies had an average score of 20 or above on the 0 to 56 point Berg Balance Scale. The absolute reliability across this part of the scale, as measured by the minimal detectable change with 95% confidence, varied between 2.8 points and 6.6 points. The Berg Balance Scale has a higher absolute reliability when close to 56 points due to the ceiling effect. We identified no data that estimated the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale among participants with a mean score below 20 out of 56. The Berg Balance Scale has acceptable reliability, although it might not detect modest, clinically important changes in balance in individual subjects. The review was only able to comment on the absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale among people with moderately poor to normal balance. Copyright © 2013 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by .. All rights reserved.

  3. Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities in incidence of acute myocardial infarction: a cohort study quantifying age- and gender-specific differences in relative and absolute terms.

    PubMed

    Koopman, Carla; van Oeffelen, Aloysia A M; Bots, Michiel L; Engelfriet, Peter M; Verschuren, W M Monique; van Rossem, Lenie; van Dis, Ineke; Capewell, Simon; Vaartjes, Ilonca

    2012-08-07

    Socioeconomic status has a profound effect on the risk of having a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Information on socioeconomic inequalities in AMI incidence across age-gender-groups is lacking. Our objective was to examine socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of AMI considering both relative and absolute measures of risk differences, with a particular focus on age and gender. We identified all patients with a first AMI from 1997 to 2007 through linked hospital discharge and death records covering the Dutch population. Relative risks (RR) of AMI incidence were estimated by mean equivalent household income at neighbourhood-level for strata of age and gender using Poisson regression models. Socioeconomic inequalities were also shown within the stratified age-gender groups by calculating the total number of events attributable to socioeconomic disadvantage. Between 1997 and 2007, 317,564 people had a first AMI. When comparing the most deprived socioeconomic quintile with the most affluent quintile, the overall RR for AMI was 1.34 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.36) in men and 1.44 (95 % CI: 1.42-1.47) in women. The socioeconomic gradient decreased with age. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were most apparent in men under 35 years and in women under 65 years. The largest number of events attributable to socioeconomic inequalities was found in men aged 45-74 years and in women aged 65-84 years. The total proportion of AMIs that was attributable to socioeconomic inequalities in the Dutch population of 1997 to 2007 was 14 % in men and 18 % in women. Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities were observed in AMI incidence in the Netherlands, but the magnitude across age-gender groups depended on whether inequality was expressed in relative or absolute terms. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were high in young persons and women, where the absolute burden of AMI was low. Absolute socioeconomic inequalities in AMI were highest in

  4. 20 CFR 404.1205 - Absolute coverage groups.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Absolute coverage groups. 404.1205 Section... Covered § 404.1205 Absolute coverage groups. (a) General. An absolute coverage group is a permanent... are not under a retirement system. An absolute coverage group may include positions which were...

  5. Using thresholds based on risk of cardiovascular disease to target treatment for hypertension: modelling events averted and number treated

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Simon; Priest, Patricia; Jackson, Rod

    2000-01-01

    Objective To estimate the impact of using thresholds based on absolute risk of cardiovascular disease to target drug treatment to lower blood pressure in the community. Design Modelling of three thresholds of treatment for hypertension based on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease. 5 year risk of disease was estimated for each participant using an equation to predict risk. Net predicted impact of the thresholds on the number of people treated and the number of disease events averted over 5 years was calculated assuming a relative treatment benefit of one quarter. Setting Auckland, New Zealand. Participants 2158 men and women aged 35-79 years randomly sampled from the general electoral rolls. Main outcome measures Predicted 5 year risk of cardiovascular disease event, estimated number of people for whom treatment would be recommended, and disease events averted over 5 years at different treatment thresholds. Results 46 374 (12%) Auckland residents aged 35-79 receive drug treatment to lower their blood pressure, averting an estimated 1689 disease events over 5 years. Restricting treatment to individuals with blood pressure ⩾170/100 mm Hg and those with blood pressure between 150/90-169/99 mm Hg who have a predicted 5 year risk of disease ⩾10% would increase the net number for whom treatment would be recommended by 19 401. This 42% relative increase is predicted to avert 1139/1689 (68%) additional disease events overall over 5 years compared with current treatment. If the threshold for 5 year risk of disease is set at 15% the number recommended for treatment increases by <10% but about 620/1689 (37%) additional events can be averted. A 20% threshold decreases the net number of patients recommended for treatment by about 10% but averts 204/1689 (12%) more disease events than current treatment. Conclusions Implementing treatment guidelines that use treatment thresholds based on absolute risk could significantly improve the efficiency of drug treatment to

  6. Delusion proneness and 'jumping to conclusions': relative and absolute effects.

    PubMed

    van der Leer, L; Hartig, B; Goldmanis, M; McKay, R

    2015-04-01

    That delusional and delusion-prone individuals 'jump to conclusions' is one of the most robust and important findings in the literature on delusions. However, although the notion of 'jumping to conclusions' (JTC) implies gathering insufficient evidence and reaching premature decisions, previous studies have not investigated whether the evidence gathering of delusion-prone individuals is, in fact, suboptimal. The standard JTC effect is a relative effect but using relative comparisons to substantiate absolute claims is problematic. In this study we investigated whether delusion-prone participants jump to conclusions in both a relative and an absolute sense. Healthy participants (n = 112) completed an incentivized probabilistic reasoning task in which correct decisions were rewarded and additional information could be requested for a small price. This combination of rewards and costs generated optimal decision points. Participants also completed measures of delusion proneness, intelligence and risk aversion. Replicating the standard relative finding, we found that delusion proneness significantly predicted task decisions, such that the more delusion prone the participants were, the earlier they decided. This finding was robust when accounting for the effects of risk aversion and intelligence. Importantly, high-delusion-prone participants also decided in advance of an objective rational optimum, gathering fewer data than would have maximized their expected payoff. Surprisingly, we found that even low-delusion-prone participants jumped to conclusions in this absolute sense. Our findings support and clarify the claim that delusion formation is associated with a tendency to 'jump to conclusions'. In short, most people jump to conclusions, but more delusion-prone individuals 'jump further'.

  7. Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation.

    PubMed

    Preston, R Julian; Boice, John D; Brill, A Bertrand; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Conolly, Rory; Hoffman, F Owen; Hornung, Richard W; Kocher, David C; Land, Charles E; Shore, Roy E; Woloschak, Gayle E

    2013-09-01

    The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No. 171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g. the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose

  8. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  9. Benefit and harm of intensive blood pressure treatment: Derivation and validation of risk models using data from the SPRINT and ACCORD trials

    PubMed Central

    Denton, Brian T.; Hayward, Rodney A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. We sought to develop and validate risk models for predicting absolute risk difference (increased risk or decreased risk) for CVD events and serious adverse events from intensive BP therapy. A secondary aim was to test if the statistical method of elastic net regularization would improve the estimation of risk models for predicting absolute risk difference, as compared to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Methods and findings Cox models were derived from SPRINT trial data and validated on ACCORD-BP trial data to estimate risk of CVD events and serious adverse events; the models included terms for intensive BP treatment and heterogeneous response to intensive treatment. The Cox models were then used to estimate the absolute reduction in probability of CVD events (benefit) and absolute increase in probability of serious adverse events (harm) for each individual from intensive treatment. We compared the method of elastic net regularization, which uses repeated internal cross-validation to select variables and estimate coefficients in the presence of collinearity, to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Data from 9,069 SPRINT participants with complete data on covariates were utilized for model development, and data from 4,498 ACCORD-BP participants with complete data were utilized for model validation. Participants were exposed to intensive (goal systolic pressure < 120 mm Hg) versus standard (<140 mm Hg) treatment. Two composite primary outcome measures were evaluated: (i) CVD events/deaths (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, congestive heart failure, or CVD death), and (ii) serious adverse events (hypotension, syncope, electrolyte abnormalities, bradycardia, or acute kidney injury/failure). The model for CVD chosen through elastic net regularization included interaction

  10. Estimating risk reduction required to break even in a health promotion program.

    PubMed

    Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Goetzel, Ron Z; Santoro, Jan; Saenz, Betty-Jo; Eley, Christine; Gorsky, Bob

    2004-01-01

    To illustrate a formula to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on a corporate health promotion program. A case study design was implemented. Base year (2001) health risk and medical expenditure data from the company, along with published information on the relationships between employee demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures, were used to forecast demographics, risks, and expenditures for 2002 through 2011 and estimate the required amount of risk reduction. Motorola. 52,124 domestic employees. Demographics included age, gender, race, and job type. Health risks for 2001 were measured via health risk appraisal. Risks were noted as either high or low and related to exercise/eating habits, body weight, blood pressure, blood sugar levels, cholesterol levels, depression, stress, smoking/drinking habits, and seat belt use. Medical claims for 2001 were used to calculate medical expenditures per employee. Assuming a dollar 282 per employee program cost, Motorola employees would need to reduce their lifestyle-related health risks by 1.08% to 1.42% per year to break even on health promotion programming, depending upon the discount rate. Higher or lower program investments would change the risk reduction percentages. Employers can use information from published studies, along with their own data, to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on their health promotion programs.

  11. Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid.

    PubMed

    Sneyd, Mary Jane; Cameron, Claire; Cox, Brian

    2014-05-22

    New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. A population-based case-control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20-79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand.

  12. Estimation of absolute water surface temperature based on atmospherically corrected thermal infrared multispectral scanner digital data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, James E.

    1986-01-01

    Airborne remote sensing systems, as well as those on board Earth orbiting satellites, sample electromagnetic energy in discrete wavelength regions and convert the total energy sampled into data suitable for processing by digital computers. In general, however, the total amount of energy reaching a sensor system located at some distance from the target is composed not only of target related energy, but, in addition, contains a contribution originating from the atmosphere itself. Thus, some method must be devised for removing or at least minimizing the effects of the atmosphere. The LOWTRAN-6 Program was designed to estimate atmospheric transmittance and radiance for a given atmospheric path at moderate spectral resolution over an operational wavelength region from 0.25 to 28.5 microns. In order to compute the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) digital values which were recorded in the absence of the atmosphere, the parameters derived from LOWTRAN-6 are used in a correction equation. The TIMS data were collected at 1:00 a.m. local time on November 21, 1983, over a recirculating cooling pond for a power plant in southeastern Mississippi. The TIMS data were analyzed before and after atmospheric corrections were applied using a band ratioing model to compute the absolute surface temperature of various points on the power plant cooling pond. The summarized results clearly demonstrate the desirability of applying atmospheric corrections.

  13. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2016-10-01

    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Methods to Develop Inhalation Cancer Risk Estimates for ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document summarizes the approaches and rationale for the technical and scientific considerations used to derive inhalation cancer risks for emissions of chromium and nickel compounds from electric utility steam generating units. The purpose of this document is to discuss the methods used to develop inhalation cancer risk estimates associated with emissions of chromium and nickel compounds from coal- and oil-fired electric utility steam generating units (EGUs) in support of EPA's recently proposed Air Toxics Rule.

  15. Gender disparities in the assessment and management of cardiovascular risk in primary care: the AusHEART study.

    PubMed

    Turnbull, Fiona; Arima, Hisatomi; Heeley, Emma; Cass, Alan; Chalmers, John; Morgan, Claire; Patel, Anushka; Peiris, David; Weekes, Andrew; Anderson, Craig

    2011-06-01

    Studies indicate ongoing gender-based differences in the prevention, detection and management of cardiovascular disease. The aims of this study were to determine whether there are differences in general practitioners' (GPs') perceptions of a patient's cardiovascular risk compared with the patient's estimated risk and in the patient's subsequent medical management according to patient sex. The Australian Hypertension and Absolute Risk Study (AusHEART) was a nationally representative, cluster-stratified, cross-sectional survey among 322 GPs. Each GP was asked to collect data on cardiovascular disease risk factors and their management in 15-20 consecutive patients (age ≥55 years) who presented between April and June, 2008. They were also asked to estimate each patient's absolute risk of a cardiovascular event in the next five years. The main outcomes were the Adjusted Framingham risk, GP estimated risk and proportion of patients receiving blood pressure-lowering, statin and antiplatelet therapy. A total of 5293 patients were recruited to the study, of whom 2968 (56%) were women. Among patients without established cardiovascular disease, the level of agreement between the GP estimated risk and the Adjusted Framingham risk was poor (<50%) and was similarly so for men (kappa coefficient 0.18; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14-0.21) and women (0.19; 95% CI 0.16-0.22; P homogeneity = 0.57). For patients with established cardiovascular disease, however, women were more likely to be assigned by the GP to a lower risk category (66% vs. 54%, P < 0.001) and less likely to be prescribed combination (blood pressure-lowering, statin and antiplatelet) (44% vs. 56%, P < 0.001) therapy compared with men, even after adjusting for patient age. Cardiovascular risk is underrecognized and undertreated in Australian primary care patients, with women apparently disproportionately affected. These findings underscore the importance of initiatives to raise awareness of

  16. Bleeding injuries in professional football: estimating the risk for HIV transmission.

    PubMed

    Brown, L S; Drotman, D P; Chu, A; Brown, C L; Knowlan, D

    1995-02-15

    To determine the risk for bleeding injuries in professional football and to estimate the risk for transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) through such injuries. A prospective, observational study. Professional football players from 11 teams of the National Football League were observed during 155 regular season games from September through December 1992. The frequencies of bleeding injuries were calculated in association with environmental and athletic factors. Using this information, HIV prevalence, and data on transmission of HIV in other circumstances, the risk for transmission of HIV during football games was estimated. 575 bleeding injuries (average, 3.7 per game for each team) involving 538 players (average, 3.5 players on each team per game) were observed. Approximately 88% of the bleeding injuries were abrasions; the remainder were lacerations. Bleeding injuries were markedly more frequent during games played on artificial surfaces, during games played in domed stadiums, and on teams with a final win/loss percentage of 0.500 or lower. Using data on the prevalence of HIV among college men and rates of HIV transmission in the health care setting, the risk for HIV transmission to each player was estimated to be less than 1 per 85 million game contacts. Although injuries occur in professional football competitions, bleeding injuries, especially lacerations, occur infrequently. We estimate that the risk for HIV transmission during such competition is extremely remote. The role of artificial playing surfaces on the incidence or severity of bleeding injuries should be investigated.

  17. The 2006 William Feinberg lecture: shifting the paradigm from stroke to global vascular risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Sacco, Ralph L

    2007-06-01

    By the year 2010, it is estimated that 18.1 million people worldwide will die annually because of cardiovascular diseases and stroke. "Global vascular risk" more broadly includes the multiple overlapping disease silos of stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and vascular death. Estimation of global vascular risk requires consideration of a variety of variables including demographics, environmental behaviors, and risk factors. Data from multiple studies suggest continuous linear relationships between the physiological vascular risk modulators of blood pressure, lipids, and blood glucose rather than treating these conditions as categorical risk factors. Constellations of risk factors may be more relevant than individual categorical components. Exciting work with novel risk factors may also have predictive value in estimates of global vascular risk. Advances in imaging have led to the measurement of subclinical conditions such as carotid intima-media thickness and subclinical brain conditions such as white matter hyperintensities and silent infarcts. These subclinical measurements may be intermediate stages in the transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic vascular events, appear to be associated with the fundamental vascular risk factors, and represent opportunities to more precisely quantitate disease progression. The expansion of studies in molecular epidemiology and detection of genetic markers underlying vascular risks also promises to extend our precision of global vascular risk estimation. Global vascular risk estimation will require quantitative methods that bundle these multi-dimensional data into more precise estimates of future risk. The power of genetic information coupled with data on demographics, risk-inducing behaviors, vascular risk modulators, biomarkers, and measures of subclinical conditions should provide the most realistic approximation of an individual's future global vascular risk. The ultimate public health benefit

  18. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  19. The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Kempf, K; Martin, S; Döhring, C; Dugi, K; Haastert, B; Schneider, M

    2016-10-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Bedside risk estimation of morbidly adherent placenta using simple calculator.

    PubMed

    Maymon, R; Melcer, Y; Pekar-Zlotin, M; Shaked, O; Cuckle, H; Tovbin, J

    2018-03-01

    To construct a calculator for 'bedside' estimation of morbidly adherent placenta (MAP) risk based on ultrasound (US) findings. This retrospective study included all pregnant women with at least one previous cesarean delivery attending in our US unit between December 2013 and January 2017. The examination was based on a scoring system which determines the probability for MAP. The study population included 471 pregnant women, and 41 of whom (8.7%) were diagnosed with MAP. Based on ROC curve, the most effective US criteria for detection of MAP were the presence of the placental lacunae, obliteration of the utero-placental demarcation, and placenta previa. On the multivariate logistic regression analysis, US findings of placental lacunae (OR = 3.5; 95% CI, 1.2-9.5; P = 0.01), obliteration of the utero-placental demarcation (OR = 12.4; 95% CI, 3.7-41.6; P < 0.0001), and placenta previa (OR = 10.5; 95% CI, 3.5-31.3; P < 0.0001) were associated with MAP. By combining these three parameters, the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated, yielding an area under the curve of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.87-0.97). Accordingly, we have constructed a simple calculator for 'bedside' estimation of MAP risk. The calculator is mounted on the hospital's internet website ( http://www.assafh.org/Pages/PPCalc/index.html ). The risk estimation of MAP varies between 1.5 and 87%. The present calculator enables a simple 'bedside' MAP estimation, facilitating accurate and adequate antenatal risk assessment.

  1. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    PubMed Central

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools. PMID:28257103

  2. Patterns and determinants of functional and absolute iron deficiency in patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation following heart surgery.

    PubMed

    Tramarin, Roberto; Pistuddi, Valeria; Maresca, Luigi; Pavesi, Marco; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; de Vincentiis, Carlo; Ranucci, Marco

    2017-05-01

    Background Anaemia and iron deficiency are frequent following major surgery. The present study aims to identify the iron deficiency patterns in cardiac surgery patients at their admission to a cardiac rehabilitation programme, and to determine which perioperative risk factor(s) may be associated with functional and absolute iron deficiency. Design This was a retrospective study on prospectively collected data. Methods The patient population included 339 patients. Functional iron deficiency was defined in the presence of transferrin saturation <20% and serum ferritin ≥100 µg/l. Absolute iron deficiency was defined in the presence of serum ferritin values <100 µg/l. Results Functional iron deficiency was found in 62.9% of patients and absolute iron deficiency in 10% of the patients. At a multivariable analysis, absolute iron deficiency was significantly ( p = 0.001) associated with mechanical prosthesis mitral valve replacement (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.9-15) and tissue valve aortic valve replacement (odds ratio 4.5, 95% confidence interval 1.9-11). In mitral valve surgery, mitral repair carried a significant ( p = 0.013) lower risk of absolute iron deficiency (4.4%) than mitral valve replacement with tissue valves (8.3%) or mechanical prostheses (22.5%). Postoperative outcome did not differ between patients with functional iron deficiency and patients without iron deficiency; patients with absolute iron deficiency had a significantly ( p = 0.017) longer postoperative hospital stay (median 11 days) than patients without iron deficiency (median nine days) or with functional iron deficiency (median eight days). Conclusions Absolute iron deficiency following cardiac surgery is more frequent in heart valve surgery and is associated with a prolonged hospital stay. Routine screening for iron deficiency at admission in the cardiac rehabilitation unit is suggested.

  3. Absolute Standard Hydrogen Electrode Potential Measured by Reduction of Aqueous Nanodrops in the Gas Phase

    PubMed Central

    Donald, William A.; Leib, Ryan D.; O'Brien, Jeremy T.; Bush, Matthew F.; Williams, Evan R.

    2008-01-01

    In solution, half-cell potentials are measured relative to those of other half cells, thereby establishing a ladder of thermochemical values that are referenced to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is arbitrarily assigned a value of exactly 0 V. Although there has been considerable interest in, and efforts toward, establishing an absolute electrochemical half-cell potential in solution, there is no general consensus regarding the best approach to obtain this value. Here, ion-electron recombination energies resulting from electron capture by gas-phase nanodrops containing individual [M(NH3)6]3+, M = Ru, Co, Os, Cr, and Ir, and Cu2+ ions are obtained from the number of water molecules that are lost from the reduced precursors. These experimental data combined with nanodrop solvation energies estimated from Born theory and solution-phase entropies estimated from limited experimental data provide absolute reduction energies for these redox couples in bulk aqueous solution. A key advantage of this approach is that solvent effects well past two solvent shells, that are difficult to model accurately, are included in these experimental measurements. By evaluating these data relative to known solution-phase reduction potentials, an absolute value for the SHE of 4.2 ± 0.4 V versus a free electron is obtained. Although not achieved here, the uncertainty of this method could potentially be reduced to below 0.1 V, making this an attractive method for establishing an absolute electrochemical scale that bridges solution and gas-phase redox chemistry. PMID:18288835

  4. Psychological impact of providing women with personalised 10-year breast cancer risk estimates.

    PubMed

    French, David P; Southworth, Jake; Howell, Anthony; Harvie, Michelle; Stavrinos, Paula; Watterson, Donna; Sampson, Sarah; Evans, D Gareth; Donnelly, Louise S

    2018-05-08

    The Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening (PROCAS) study estimated 10-year breast cancer risk for 53,596 women attending NHS Breast Screening Programme. The present study, nested within the PROCAS study, aimed to assess the psychological impact of receiving breast cancer risk estimates, based on: (a) the Tyrer-Cuzick (T-C) algorithm including breast density or (b) T-C including breast density plus single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), versus (c) comparison women awaiting results. A sample of 2138 women from the PROCAS study was stratified by testing groups: T-C only, T-C(+SNPs) and comparison women; and by 10-year risk estimates received: 'moderate' (5-7.99%), 'average' (2-4.99%) or 'below average' (<1.99%) risk. Postal questionnaires were returned by 765 (36%) women. Overall state anxiety and cancer worry were low, and similar for women in T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups. Women in both T-C only and T-C(+SNPs) groups showed lower-state anxiety but slightly higher cancer worry than comparison women awaiting results. Risk information had no consistent effects on intentions to change behaviour. Most women were satisfied with information provided. There was considerable variation in understanding. No major harms of providing women with 10-year breast cancer risk estimates were detected. Research to establish the feasibility of risk-stratified breast screening is warranted.

  5. No Absolutism Here: Harm Predicts Moral Judgment 30× Better Than Disgust-Commentary on Scott, Inbar, & Rozin (2016).

    PubMed

    Gray, Kurt; Schein, Chelsea

    2016-05-01

    Moral absolutism is the idea that people's moral judgments are insensitive to considerations of harm. Scott, Inbar, and Rozin (2016, this issue) claim that most moral opponents to genetically modified organisms are absolutely opposed-motivated by disgust and not harm. Yet there is no evidence for moral absolutism in their data. Perceived risk/harm is the most significant predictor of moral judgments for "absolutists," accounting for 30 times more variance than disgust. Reanalyses suggest that disgust is not even a significant predictor of the moral judgments of absolutists once accounting for perceived harm and anger. Instead of revealing actual moral absolutism, Scott et al. find only empty absolutism: hypothetical, forecasted, self-reported moral absolutism. Strikingly, the moral judgments of so-called absolutists are somewhat more sensitive to consequentialist concerns than those of nonabsolutists. Mediation reanalyses reveal that moral judgments are most proximally predicted by harm and not disgust, consistent with dyadic morality. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. Validation of the technique for absolute total electron content and differential code biases estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mylnikova, Anna; Yasyukevich, Yury; Yasyukevich, Anna

    2017-04-01

    We have developed a technique for vertical total electron content (TEC) and differential code biases (DCBs) estimation using data from a single GPS/GLONASS station. The algorithm is based on TEC expansion into Taylor series in space and time (TayAbsTEC). We perform the validation of the technique using Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) computed by Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). We compared differences between absolute vertical TEC (VTEC) from GIM and VTEC evaluated by TayAbsTEC for 2009 year (solar activity minimum - sunspot number about 0), and for 2014 year (solar activity maximum - sunspot number 110). Since there is difference between VTEC from CODE and VTEC from JPL, we compare TayAbsTEC VTEC with both of them. We found that TayAbsTEC VTEC is closer to CODE VTEC than to JPL VTEC. The difference between TayAbsTEC VTEC and GIM VTEC is more noticeable for solar activity maximum (2014) than for solar activity minimum (2009) for both CODE and JPL. The distribution of VTEC differences is close to Gaussian distribution, so we conclude that results of TayAbsTEC are in the agreement with GIM VTEC. We also compared DCBs evaluated by TayAbsTEC and DCBs from GIM, computed by CODE. The TayAbsTEC DCBs are in good agreement with CODE DCBs for GPS satellites, but differ noticeable for GLONASS. We used DCBs to correct slant TEC to find out which DCBs give better results. Slant TEC correction with CODE DCBs produces negative and nonphysical TEC values. Slant TEC correction with TayAbsTEC DCBs doesn't produce such artifacts. The technique we developed is used for VTEC and DCBs calculation given only local GPS/GLONASS networks data. The evaluated VTEC data are in GIM framework which is handy when various data analyses are made.

  7. Estimation model of life insurance claims risk for cancer patients by using Bayesian method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukono; Suyudi, M.; Islamiyati, F.; Supian, S.

    2017-01-01

    This paper discussed the estimation model of the risk of life insurance claims for cancer patients using Bayesian method. To estimate the risk of the claim, the insurance participant data is grouped into two: the number of policies issued and the number of claims incurred. Model estimation is done using a Bayesian approach method. Further, the estimator model was used to estimate the risk value of life insurance claims each age group for each sex. The estimation results indicate that a large risk premium for insured males aged less than 30 years is 0.85; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:58; for ages 41 to 50 years is 1.71; for ages 51 to 60 years is 2.96; and for those aged over 60 years is 7.82. Meanwhile, for insured women aged less than 30 years was 0:56; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:21; for ages 41 to 50 years is 0.65; for ages 51 to 60 years is 3:12; and for those aged over 60 years is 9.99. This study is useful in determining the risk premium in homogeneous groups based on gender and age.

  8. Forecasting Error Calculation with Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khair, Ummul; Fahmi, Hasanul; Hakim, Sarudin Al; Rahim, Robbi

    2017-12-01

    Prediction using a forecasting method is one of the most important things for an organization, the selection of appropriate forecasting methods is also important but the percentage error of a method is more important in order for decision makers to adopt the right culture, the use of the Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error to calculate the percentage of mistakes in the least square method resulted in a percentage of 9.77% and it was decided that the least square method be worked for time series and trend data.

  9. Temperature-dependent Absolute Refractive Index Measurements of Synthetic Fused Silica

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leviton, Douglas B.; Frey, Bradley J.

    2006-01-01

    Using the Cryogenic, High-Accuracy Refraction Measuring System (CHARMS) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, we have measured the absolute refractive index of five specimens taken from a very large boule of Corning 7980 fused silica from temperatures ranging from 30 to 310 K at wavelengths from 0.4 to 2.6 microns with an absolute uncertainty of plus or minus 1 x 10 (exp -5). Statistical variations in derived values of the thermo-optic coefficient (dn/dT) are at the plus or minus 2 x 10 (exp -8)/K level. Graphical and tabulated data for absolute refractive index, dispersion, and thermo-optic coefficient are presented for selected wavelengths and temperatures along with estimates of uncertainty in index. Coefficients for temperature-dependent Sellmeier fits of measured refractive index are also presented to allow accurate interpolation of index to other wavelengths and temperatures. We compare our results to those from an independent investigation (which used an interferometric technique for measuring index changes as a function of temperature) whose samples were prepared from the same slugs of material from which our prisms were prepared in support of the Kepler mission. We also compare our results with sparse cryogenic index data from measurements of this material from the literature.

  10. Background risk of breast cancer and the association between physical activity and mammographic density.

    PubMed

    Trinh, Thang; Eriksson, Mikael; Darabi, Hatef; Bonn, Stephanie E; Brand, Judith S; Cuzick, Jack; Czene, Kamila; Sjölander, Arvid; Bälter, Katarina; Hall, Per

    2015-04-02

    High physical activity has been shown to decrease the risk of breast cancer, potentially by a mechanism that also reduces mammographic density. We tested the hypothesis that the risk of developing breast cancer in the next 10 years according to the Tyrer-Cuzick prediction model influences the association between physical activity and mammographic density. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of 38,913 Swedish women aged 40-74 years. Physical activity was assessed using the validated web-questionnaire Active-Q and mammographic density was measured by the fully automated volumetric Volpara method. The 10-year risk of breast cancer was estimated using the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) prediction model. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between physical activity and volumetric mammographic density and the potential interaction with the TC breast cancer risk. Overall, high physical activity was associated with lower absolute dense volume. As compared to women with the lowest total activity level (<40 metabolic equivalent hours [MET-h] per day), women with the highest total activity level (≥50 MET-h/day) had an estimated 3.4 cm(3) (95% confidence interval, 2.3-4.7) lower absolute dense volume. The inverse association was seen for any type of physical activity among women with <3.0% TC 10-year risk, but only for total and vigorous activities among women with 3.0-4.9% TC risk, and only for vigorous activity among women with ≥5.0% TC risk. The association between total activity and absolute dense volume was modified by the TC breast cancer risk (P interaction = 0.05). As anticipated, high physical activity was also associated with lower non-dense volume. No consistent association was found between physical activity and percent dense volume. Our results suggest that physical activity may decrease breast cancer risk through reducing mammographic density, and that the physical activity needed to reduce mammographic density may depend

  11. Fertility treatment and risk of childhood and adolescent mental disorders: register based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Kesmodel, Ulrik Schiøler

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess the mental health of children born after fertility treatment by comparing their risk of mental disorders with that of spontaneously conceived children. Design Prospective register based cohort study. Setting Nationwide register based information from Danish National Health Registers cross linked by a unique personal identification number assigned to all citizens in Denmark. Participants All children born in Denmark in 1995-2003 with follow-up in 2012 when the children were aged 8-17; 33 139 children were conceived after fertility treatment and 555 828 children were born after spontaneous conception. Main outcome measures Absolute risks and hazard ratios for overall and specific mental disorders estimated with adjustment for potential confounding variables. Estimated association between the risk of mental disorders and subtypes of procedures, hormone treatments, gamete types, and cause of infertility. Results The risk of mental disorders in children born after in vitro fertilisation or intracytoplasmic sperm injection was low, and was no higher than in spontaneously conceived children, except for a borderline significant increased risk of tic disorders (hazard ratio 1.40, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.95; absolute risk 0.3%). In contrast, children born after ovulation induction with or without insemination had low but significantly increased risks of any mental disorder (1.20, 1.11 to 1.31; absolute risk 4.1%), autism spectrum disorders (1.20, 1.05 to 1.37; 1.5%), hyperkinetic disorders (1.23, 1.08 to 1.40; 1.7%), conduct, emotional, or social disorder (1.21, 1.02 to 1.45; 0.8%), and tic disorders (1.51, 1.16 to 1.96; 0.4%). There was no risk systematically related to any specific type of hormone drug treatment. Conclusions There was a small increase in the incidence of mental disorders in children born after ovulation induction/intrauterine insemination. Children born after in vitro fertilisation/intracytoplasmic sperm injection were

  12. Moving closer to understanding the risks of living kidney donation.

    PubMed

    Steiner, Robert W

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies from the United States and Norway have suggested an unexpected 8- to 11-fold relative risk of ESRD after kidney donation, but a low long-term absolute risk. Abundant renal epidemiologic data predict that these studies have underestimated long-term risk. The 1% lifetime post-donation risk in the US study requires medical screening to predict ESRD in 96 of 100 candidates. This is particularly unlikely in the 30-35% of candidates under age 35, half of whose lifetime ESRD will occur after age 64. Many experts have attributed the increased relative risks in these studies to loss of GFR at donation, which ultimately means that high-normal pre-donation GFRs will reduce absolute post-donation risks. The 8- to 11-fold relative risks predict implausible risks of uninephrectomy in the general population, but lower estimates still result in very high risks for black donors. Young vs. older age, low vs. high-normal pre-donation GFRs, black race, and an increased relative risk of donation all predict highly variable individual risks, not a single "low" or "1%" risk as these studies suggest. A uniform, ethically defensible donor selection protocol would accept older donors with many minor medical abnormalities but protect from donation many currently acceptable younger, black, and/or low GFR candidates. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. An absolute scale for measuring the utility of money

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, P. J.

    2010-07-01

    Measurement of the utility of money is essential in the insurance industry, for prioritising public spending schemes and for the evaluation of decisions on protection systems in high-hazard industries. Up to this time, however, there has been no universally agreed measure for the utility of money, with many utility functions being in common use. In this paper, we shall derive a single family of utility functions, which have risk-aversion as the only free parameter. The fact that they return a utility of zero at their low, reference datum, either the utility of no money or of one unit of money, irrespective of the value of risk-aversion used, qualifies them to be regarded as absolute scales for the utility of money. Evidence of validation for the concept will be offered based on inferential measurements of risk-aversion, using diverse measurement data.

  14. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing.

    PubMed

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C; Chien, Tsair-Wei

    2016-01-22

    Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk.

  15. Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

    2004-01-01

    Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

  16. Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

    2004-01-01

    Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.

  17. Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

    1995-01-01

    Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

  18. 20 CFR 404.1205 - Absolute coverage groups.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Absolute coverage groups. 404.1205 Section... INSURANCE (1950- ) Coverage of Employees of State and Local Governments What Groups of Employees May Be Covered § 404.1205 Absolute coverage groups. (a) General. An absolute coverage group is a permanent...

  19. 20 CFR 404.1205 - Absolute coverage groups.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Absolute coverage groups. 404.1205 Section... INSURANCE (1950- ) Coverage of Employees of State and Local Governments What Groups of Employees May Be Covered § 404.1205 Absolute coverage groups. (a) General. An absolute coverage group is a permanent...

  20. 20 CFR 404.1205 - Absolute coverage groups.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Absolute coverage groups. 404.1205 Section... INSURANCE (1950- ) Coverage of Employees of State and Local Governments What Groups of Employees May Be Covered § 404.1205 Absolute coverage groups. (a) General. An absolute coverage group is a permanent...

  1. Explaining Behavior Change after Genetic Testing: The Problem of Collinearity between Test Results and Risk Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Fanshawe, Thomas R.; Prevost, A. Toby; Roberts, J. Scott; Green, Robert C.; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed ε4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in ε4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving ε4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and ε4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an ε4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates. PMID:18666860

  2. Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

    2008-09-01

    This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

  3. Risk Estimation and Sexual Behaviour: A Longitudinal Study of 16- 21-year olds.

    PubMed

    Breakwell, G M; Breakwell, G M

    1996-01-01

    The relationships among risk estimation, impulsivity and patterns of sexual risk-taking in 16-21-year-olds are examined. A sample of 236 males and 340 females completed a postal questionnaire on three occasions at annual intervals. They reported their assessment of their own risk of HIV infection, the risk of HIV infection associated with six types of sexual activity, their likelihood of engaging in each of these activities, and whether they had participated in these activities between the first and second data collections. Impulsivity was indexed using a standard test. The data support the conclusion that strong social representations of sexual risks exist which do not markedly change during late adolescence. These risk estimates predict behavioural expectations, primarily for the riskiest behaviours, and for females (actual participation in vaginal sex); but for males, risk estimates fail to predict behaviour. Evidence here for a rational model of individual decision- making in relation to sexual risk- taking is sparse. Impulsivity was not a good predictor of expected or actual patterns of sexual behaviour, though higher impulsivity was associated with having more sexual partners and, in females, with starting to have sex younger.

  4. Simulation study of the effect of influenza and influenza vaccination on risk of acquiring Guillain-Barré syndrome.

    PubMed

    Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Deeks, Shelley L; Crowcroft, Natasha S; McGeer, Allison J; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A; Coyle, Doug; Wilson, Kumanan

    2015-02-01

    It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was -0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval -1.22% to 0.28) and -0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, -3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients.

  5. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  6. Measured and modelled absolute gravity in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, E.; Forsberg, R.; Strykowski, G.

    2012-12-01

    Present day changes in the ice volume in glaciated areas like Greenland will change the load on the Earth and to this change the lithosphere will respond elastically. The Earth also responds to changes in the ice volume over a millennial time scale. This response is due to the viscous properties of the mantle and is known as Glaical Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Both signals are present in GPS and absolute gravity (AG) measurements and they will give an uncertainty in mass balance estimates calculated from these data types. It is possible to separate the two signals if both gravity and Global Positioning System (GPS) time series are available. DTU Space acquired an A10 absolute gravimeter in 2008. One purpose of this instrument is to establish AG time series in Greenland and the first measurements were conducted in 2009. Since then are 18 different Greenland GPS Network (GNET) stations visited and six of these are visited more then once. The gravity signal consists of three signals; the elastic signal, the viscous signal and the direct attraction from the ice masses. All of these signals can be modelled using various techniques. The viscous signal is modelled by solving the Sea Level Equation with an appropriate ice history and Earth model. The free code SELEN is used for this. The elastic signal is modelled as a convolution of the elastic Greens function for gravity and a model of present day ice mass changes. The direct attraction is the same as the Newtonian attraction and is calculated as this. Here we will present the preliminary results of the AG measurements in Greenland. We will also present modelled estimates of the direct attraction, the elastic and the viscous signals.

  7. Absolute Sea-level Changes Derived from Integrated Geodetic Datasets (1955-2016) in the Caribbean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, L.; Wang, G.; Liu, H.

    2017-12-01

    Rising sea level has important direct impacts on coastal and island regions such as the Caribbean where the influence of sea-level rise is becoming more apparent. The Caribbean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea adjacent to the landmasses of South and Central America to the south and west, and the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles separate it from the Atlantic Ocean to the north and east. The work focus on studying the relative and absolute sea-level changes by integrating tide gauge, GPS, and satellite altimetry datasets (1955-2016) within the Caribbean Sea. Further, the two main components of absolute sea-level change, ocean mass and steric sea-level changes, are respectively studied using GRACE, temperature, and salinity datasets (1955-2016). According to the analysis conducted, the sea-level change rates have considerable temporal and spatial variations, and estimates may be subject to the techniques used and observation periods. The average absolute sea-level rise rate is 1.8±0.3 mm/year for the period from 1955 to 2015 according to the integrated tide gauge and GPS observations; the average absolute sea-level rise rate is 3.5±0.6 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2016 according to the satellite altimetry observations. This study shows that the absolute sea-level change budget in the Caribbean Sea is closed in the periods from 1955 to 2016, in which ocean mass change dominates the absolute sea-level rise. The absolute sea-level change budget is also closed in the periods from 2004 to 2016, in which steric sea-level rise dominates the absolute sea-level rise.

  8. Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

    2002-01-01

    The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

  9. Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

    2013-06-01

    The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

  10. A novel tool for user-friendly estimation of natural, diagnostic and professional radiation risk: Radio-Risk software.

    PubMed

    Carpeggiani, Clara; Paterni, Marco; Caramella, Davide; Vano, Eliseo; Semelka, Richard C; Picano, Eugenio

    2012-11-01

    Awareness of radiological risk is low among doctors and patients. An educational/decision tool that considers each patient' s cumulative lifetime radiation exposure would facilitate provider-patient communication. The purpose of this work was to develop user-friendly software for simple estimation and communication of radiological risk to patients and doctors as a part of the SUIT-Heart (Stop Useless Imaging Testing in Heart disease) Project of the Tuscany Region. We developed a novel software program (PC-platform, Windows OS fully downloadable at http://suit-heart.ifc.cnr.it) considering reference dose estimates from American Heart Association Radiological Imaging 2009 guidelines and UK Royal College of Radiology 2007 guidelines. Cancer age and gender-weighted risk were derived from Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII Committee, 2006. With simple input functions (demographics, age, gender) the user selects from a predetermined menu variables relating to natural (e.g., airplane flights and geo-tracked background exposure), professional (e.g., cath lab workers) and medical (e.g., CT, cardiac scintigraphy, coronary stenting) sources. The program provides a simple numeric (cumulative effective dose in milliSievert, mSv, and equivalent number of chest X-rays) and graphic (cumulative temporal trends of exposure, cancer cases out of 100 exposed persons) display. A simple software program allows straightforward estimation of cumulative dose (in multiples of chest X-rays) and risk (in extra % lifetime cancer risk), with simple numbers quantifying lifetime extra cancer risk. Pictorial display of radiation risk may be valuable for increasing radiological awareness in cardiologists. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities in incidence of acute myocardial infarction: a cohort study quantifying age- and gender-specific differences in relative and absolute terms

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Socioeconomic status has a profound effect on the risk of having a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Information on socioeconomic inequalities in AMI incidence across age- gender-groups is lacking. Our objective was to examine socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of AMI considering both relative and absolute measures of risk differences, with a particular focus on age and gender. Methods We identified all patients with a first AMI from 1997 to 2007 through linked hospital discharge and death records covering the Dutch population. Relative risks (RR) of AMI incidence were estimated by mean equivalent household income at neighbourhood-level for strata of age and gender using Poisson regression models. Socioeconomic inequalities were also shown within the stratified age-gender groups by calculating the total number of events attributable to socioeconomic disadvantage. Results Between 1997 and 2007, 317,564 people had a first AMI. When comparing the most deprived socioeconomic quintile with the most affluent quintile, the overall RR for AMI was 1.34 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.32 – 1.36) in men and 1.44 (95 % CI: 1.42 – 1.47) in women. The socioeconomic gradient decreased with age. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were most apparent in men under 35 years and in women under 65 years. The largest number of events attributable to socioeconomic inequalities was found in men aged 45–74 years and in women aged 65–84 years. The total proportion of AMIs that was attributable to socioeconomic inequalities in the Dutch population of 1997 to 2007 was 14 % in men and 18 % in women. Conclusions Neighbourhood socioeconomic inequalities were observed in AMI incidence in the Netherlands, but the magnitude across age-gender groups depended on whether inequality was expressed in relative or absolute terms. Relative socioeconomic inequalities were high in young persons and women, where the absolute burden of AMI was low. Absolute

  12. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  13. Absolute, SI-traceable lunar irradiance tie-points for the USGS Lunar Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Steven W.; Eplee, Robert E.; Xiong, Xiaoxiong J.

    2017-10-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an empirical model, known as the Robotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) Model, that predicts the reflectance of the Moon for any Sun-sensor-Moon configuration over the spectral range from 350 nm to 2500 nm. The lunar irradiance can be predicted from the modeled lunar reflectance using a spectrum of the incident solar irradiance. While extremely successful as a relative exo-atmospheric calibration target, the ROLO Model is not SI-traceable and has estimated uncertainties too large for the Moon to be used as an absolute celestial calibration target. In this work, two recent absolute, low uncertainty, SI-traceable top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) lunar irradiances, measured over the spectral range from 380 nm to 1040 nm, at lunar phase angles of 6.6° and 16.9° , are used as tie-points to the output of the ROLO Model. Combined with empirically derived phase and libration corrections to the output of the ROLO Model and uncertainty estimates in those corrections, the measurements enable development of a corrected TOA lunar irradiance model and its uncertainty budget for phase angles between +/-80° and libration angles from 7° to 51° . The uncertainties in the empirically corrected output from the ROLO model are approximately 1 % from 440 nm to 865 nm and increase to almost 3 % at 412 nm. The dominant components in the uncertainty budget are the uncertainty in the absolute TOA lunar irradiance and the uncertainty in the fit to the phase correction from the output of the ROLO model.

  14. Dynamically consistent hydrography and absolute velocity in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wunsch, Carl

    1994-01-01

    The problem of mapping a dynamically consistent hydrographic field and associated absolute geostrophic flow in the eastern North Atlantic between 24 deg and 36 deg N is related directly to the solution of the so-called thermocline equations. A nonlinear optimization problem involving Needler's P equation is solved to find the hydrography and resulting flow that minimizes the vertical mixing above about 1500 m in the ocean and is simultaneously consistent with the observations. A sharp minimum (at least in some dimensions) is found, apparently corresponding to a solution nearly conserving potential vorticity and with vertical eddy coefficient less than about 10(exp -5) sq m/s. Estimates of `residual' quantities such as eddy coefficients are extremely sensitive to slight modifications to the observed fields. Boundary conditions, vertical velocities, etc., are a product of the optimization and produce estimates differing quantitatively from prior ones relying directly upon observed hydrography. The results are generally insensitive to particular elements of the solution methodology, but many questions remain concerning the extent to which different synoptic sections can be asserted to represent the same ocean. The method can be regarded as a practical generalization of the beta spiral and geostrophic balance inverses for the estimate of absolute geostrophic flows. Numerous improvements to the methodology used in this preliminary attempt are possible.

  15. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  16. Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

  17. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    PubMed

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  18. Absolute Parameters for the F-type Eclipsing Binary BW Aquarii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxted, P. F. L.

    2018-05-01

    BW Aqr is a bright eclipsing binary star containing a pair of F7V stars. The absolute parameters of this binary (masses, radii, etc.) are known to good precision so they are often used to test stellar models, particularly in studies of convective overshooting. ... Maxted & Hutcheon (2018) analysed the Kepler K2 data for BW Aqr and noted that it shows variability between the eclipses that may be caused by tidally induced pulsations. ... Table 1 shows the absolute parameters for BW Aqr derived from an improved analysis of the Kepler K2 light curve plus the RV measurements from both Imbert (1979) and Lester & Gies (2018). ... The values in Table 1 with their robust error estimates from the standard deviation of the mean are consistent with the values and errors from Maxted & Hutcheon (2018) based on the PPD calculated using emcee for a fit to the entire K2 light curve.

  19. Impact of the Absolute Difference in Diastolic Blood Pressure Between Arms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Hitaka, Yuka; Miura, Shin-ichiro; Koyoshi, Rie; Shiga, Yuhei; Miyase, Yuiko; Norimatsu, Kenji; Nakamura, Ayumi; Adachi, Sen; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

    2015-01-01

    Background We investigated the relationship between the severity and presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and a difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) between arms or between lower limbs. Methods We enrolled 277 patients who underwent coronary angiography. We calculated the absolute (|right BP (rt. BP) - left BP (lt. BP)|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP or DBP between arms or between lower limbs, and assessed the severity of CAD in terms of the Gensini score. Results The absolute difference in DBP between arms in the CAD group was significantly lower than that in the non-CAD group, whereas the absolute difference in DBP between lower limbs in the CAD group was significantly higher. There were no differences in the absolute or relative difference in SBP between arms or lower limbs between the groups. The absolute difference in DBP between arms decreased as the Gensini score increased. In a logistic regression analysis, the presence of CAD was independently associated with the absolute difference in DBP between arms, in addition to male, family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Conclusion The absolute difference in DBP between arms in addition to traditional factors may be a critical risk factor for the presence of CAD. PMID:26491500

  20. Impact of the Absolute Difference in Diastolic Blood Pressure Between Arms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

    PubMed

    Hitaka, Yuka; Miura, Shin-Ichiro; Koyoshi, Rie; Shiga, Yuhei; Miyase, Yuiko; Norimatsu, Kenji; Nakamura, Ayumi; Adachi, Sen; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

    2015-11-01

    We investigated the relationship between the severity and presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and a difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) between arms or between lower limbs. We enrolled 277 patients who underwent coronary angiography. We calculated the absolute (|right BP (rt. BP) - left BP (lt. BP)|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP or DBP between arms or between lower limbs, and assessed the severity of CAD in terms of the Gensini score. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in the CAD group was significantly lower than that in the non-CAD group, whereas the absolute difference in DBP between lower limbs in the CAD group was significantly higher. There were no differences in the absolute or relative difference in SBP between arms or lower limbs between the groups. The absolute difference in DBP between arms decreased as the Gensini score increased. In a logistic regression analysis, the presence of CAD was independently associated with the absolute difference in DBP between arms, in addition to male, family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in addition to traditional factors may be a critical risk factor for the presence of CAD.

  1. Auditory risk estimates for youth target shooting

    PubMed Central

    Meinke, Deanna K.; Murphy, William J.; Finan, Donald S.; Lankford, James E.; Flamme, Gregory A.; Stewart, Michael; Soendergaard, Jacob; Jerome, Trevor W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To characterize the impulse noise exposure and auditory risk for youth recreational firearm users engaged in outdoor target shooting events. The youth shooting positions are typically standing or sitting at a table, which places the firearm closer to the ground or reflective surface when compared to adult shooters. Design Acoustic characteristics were examined and the auditory risk estimates were evaluated using contemporary damage-risk criteria for unprotected adult listeners and the 120-dB peak limit suggested by the World Health Organization (1999) for children. Study sample Impulses were generated by 26 firearm/ammunition configurations representing rifles, shotguns, and pistols used by youth. Measurements were obtained relative to a youth shooter’s left ear. Results All firearms generated peak levels that exceeded the 120 dB peak limit suggested by the WHO for children. In general, shooting from the seated position over a tabletop increases the peak levels, LAeq8 and reduces the unprotected maximum permissible exposures (MPEs) for both rifles and pistols. Pistols pose the greatest auditory risk when fired over a tabletop. Conclusion Youth should utilize smaller caliber weapons, preferably from the standing position, and always wear hearing protection whenever engaging in shooting activities to reduce the risk for auditory damage. PMID:24564688

  2. Exposure to prescription opioid analgesics in utero and risk of neonatal abstinence syndrome: population based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Desai, Rishi J; Huybrechts, Krista F; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Mogun, Helen; Patorno, Elisabetta; Kaltenbach, Karol; Kerzner, Leslie S; Bateman, Brian T

    2015-05-14

    To provide absolute and relative risk estimates of neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) based on duration and timing of prescription opioid use during pregnancy in the presence or absence of additional NAS risk factors of history of opioid misuse or dependence, misuse of other substances, non-opioid psychotropic drug use, and smoking. Observational cohort study. Medicaid data from 46 US states. Pregnant women filling at least one prescription for an opioid analgesic at any time during pregnancy for whom opioid exposure characteristics including duration of therapy: short term (<30 days) or long term (≥ 30 days); timing of use: early use (only in the first two trimesters) or late use (extending into the third trimester); and cumulative dose (in morphine equivalent milligrams) were assessed. Diagnosis of NAS in liveborn infants. 1705 cases of NAS were identified among 290,605 pregnant women filling opioid prescriptions, corresponding to an absolute risk of 5.9 per 1000 deliveries (95% confidence interval 5.6 to 6.2). Long term opioid use during pregnancy resulted in higher absolute risk of NAS per 1000 deliveries in the presence of additional risk factors of known opioid misuse (220.2 (200.8 to 241.0)), alcohol or other drug misuse (30.8 (26.1 to 36.0)), exposure to other psychotropic medications (13.1 (10.6 to 16.1)), and smoking (6.6 (4.3 to 9.6)) than in the absence of any of these risk factors (4.2 (3.3 to 5.4)). The corresponding risk estimates for short term use were 192.0 (175.8 to 209.3), 7.0 (6.0 to 8.2), 2.0 (1.5 to 2.6), 1.5 (1.0 to 2.0), and 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) per 1000 deliveries, respectively. In propensity score matched analyses, long term prescription opioid use compared with short term use and late use compared with early use in pregnancy demonstrated greater risk of NAS (risk ratios 2.05 (95% confidence interval 1.81 to 2.33) and 1.24 (1.12 to 1.38), respectively). Use of prescription opioids during pregnancy is associated with a low absolute risk of

  3. Absolute Effect of Prostate Cancer Screening: Balance of benefits and harms by center within the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening

    PubMed Central

    Auvinen, Anssi; Moss, Sue M; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Taari, Kimmo; Roobol, Monique J; Schröder, Fritz H; Bangma, Chris H; Carlsson, Sigrid; Aus, Gunnar; Zappa, Marco; Puliti, Donella; Denis, Louis J; Nelen, Vera; Kwiatkowski, Maciej; Randazzo, Marco; Paez, Alvaro; Lujan, Marcos; Hugosson, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The balance of benefits and harms in prostate cancer screening has not been sufficiently characterized. We related indicators of mortality reduction and overdetection by center within the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening. Experimental Design We analyzed the absolute mortality reduction expressed as number needed to invite (NNI=1/absolute risk reduction; indicating how many men had to be randomized to screening arm to avert a prostate cancer death) for screening and the absolute excess of prostate cancer detection as number needed for overdetection (NNO=1/absolute excess incidence; indicating the number of men invited per additional prostate cancer case), and compared their relationship across the seven ERSPC centers. Results Both absolute mortality reduction (NNI) and absolute overdetection (NNO) varied widely between the centers: NNI 200-7000 and NNO 16-69. Extent of overdiagnosis and mortality reduction were closely associated (correlation coefficient r=0.76, weighted linear regression coefficient β=33, 95% 5-62, R2=0.72). For an averted prostate cancer death at 13 years of follow-up, 12-36 excess cases had to be detected in various centers. Conclusions The differences between the ERSPC centers likely reflect variations in prostate cancer incidence and mortality, as well as in screening protocol and performance. The strong interrelation between the benefits and harms suggests that efforts to maximize the mortality effect are bound to increase overdiagnosis, and might be improved by focusing on high-risk populations. The optimal balance between screening intensity and risk of overdiagnosis remains unclear. PMID:26289069

  4. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  5. Estimating Toxicity Pathway Activating Doses for High Throughput Chemical Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estimating a Toxicity Pathway Activating Dose (TPAD) from in vitro assays as an analog to a reference dose (RfD) derived from in vivo toxicity tests would facilitate high throughput risk assessments of thousands of data-poor environmental chemicals. Estimating a TPAD requires def...

  6. Absolute Summ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  7. GeneCount: genome-wide calculation of absolute tumor DNA copy numbers from array comparative genomic hybridization data

    PubMed Central

    Lyng, Heidi; Lando, Malin; Brøvig, Runar S; Svendsrud, Debbie H; Johansen, Morten; Galteland, Eivind; Brustugun, Odd T; Meza-Zepeda, Leonardo A; Myklebost, Ola; Kristensen, Gunnar B; Hovig, Eivind; Stokke, Trond

    2008-01-01

    Absolute tumor DNA copy numbers can currently be achieved only on a single gene basis by using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). We present GeneCount, a method for genome-wide calculation of absolute copy numbers from clinical array comparative genomic hybridization data. The tumor cell fraction is reliably estimated in the model. Data consistent with FISH results are achieved. We demonstrate significant improvements over existing methods for exploring gene dosages and intratumor copy number heterogeneity in cancers. PMID:18500990

  8. Debris flow risk mapping on medium scale and estimation of prospective economic losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blahut, Jan; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Delimitation of potential zones affected by debris flow hazard, mapping of areas at risk, and estimation of future economic damage provides important information for spatial planners and local administrators in all countries endangered by this type of phenomena. This study presents a medium scale (1:25 000 - 1: 50 000) analysis applied in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Italian Alps, Lombardy Region). In this area a debris flow hazard map was coupled with the information about the elements at risk to obtain monetary values of prospective damage. Two available hazard maps were obtained from GIS medium scale modelling. Probability estimations of debris flow occurrence were calculated using existing susceptibility maps and two sets of aerial images. Value to the elements at risk was assigned according to the official information on housing costs and land value from the Territorial Agency of Lombardy Region. In the first risk map vulnerability values were assumed to be 1. The second risk map uses three classes of vulnerability values qualitatively estimated according to the debris flow possible propagation. Risk curves summarizing the possible economic losses were calculated. Finally these maps of economic risk were compared to maps derived from qualitative evaluation of the values of the elements at risk.

  9. Self-attraction effect and correction on the T-1 absolute gravimeter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Z.; Hu, H.; Wu, K.; Li, G.; Wang, G.; Wang, L. J.

    2015-12-01

    The self-attraction effect (SAE) in an absolute gravimeter is a kind of systematic error due to the gravitation of the instrument to the falling object. This effect depends on the mass distribution of the gravimeter, and is estimated to be a few microgals (1 μGal  =  10-8 m s-2) for the FG5 gravimeter. In this paper, the SAE of a home-made T-1 absolute gravimeter is analyzed and calculated. Most of the stationary components, including the dropping chamber, the laser interferometer, the vibration isolation device and two tripods, are finely modelled, and the related SAEs are computed. In addition, the SAE of the co-falling carriage inside the dropping chamber is carefully calculated because the distance between the falling object and the co-falling carriage varies during the measurement. In order to get the correction of the SAE, two different methods are compared. One is to linearize the SAE curve, the other one is to calculate the perturbed trajectory. The results from these two methods agree with each other within 0.01 μGal. With an uncertainty analysis, the correction of the SAE of the T-1 gravimeter is estimated to be (-1.9  ±  0.1) μGal.

  10. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  11. Estimating the impact of grouping misclassification on risk ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Environmental health risk assessments of chemical mixtures that rely on component approaches often begin by grouping the chemicals of concern according to toxicological similarity. Approaches that assume dose addition typically are used for groups of similarly-acting chemicals and those that assume response addition are used for groups of independently acting chemicals. Grouping criteria for similarity can include a common adverse outcome pathway (AOP) and similarly shaped dose-response curves, with the latter used in the relative potency factor (RPF) method for estimating mixture response. Independence of toxic action is generally assumed if there is evidence that the chemicals act by different mechanisms. Several questions arise about the potential for misclassification error in the mixture risk prediction. If a common AOP has been established, how much error could there be if the same dose-response curve shape is assumed for all chemicals, when the shapes truly differ and, conversely, what is the error potential if different shapes are assumed when they are not? In particular, how do those concerns impact the choice of index chemical and uncertainty of the RPF-estimated mixture response? What is the quantitative impact if dose additivity is assumed when complete or partial independence actually holds and vice versa? These concepts and implications will be presented with numerical examples in the context of uncertainty of the RPF-estimated mixture response,

  12. A-BOMB SURVIVOR SITE-SPECIFIC RADIOGENIC CANCER RISKS ESTIMATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    A draft manuscript is being prepared that describes ways to improve estimates of risk from radiation that have been derived from A-bomb survivors. The work has been published in the journal Radiation Research volume 169, pages 87-98.

  13. Absolute backscatter coefficient estimates of tissue-mimicking phantoms in the 5–50 MHz frequency range

    PubMed Central

    McCormick, Matthew M.; Madsen, Ernest L.; Deaner, Meagan E.; Varghese, Tomy

    2011-01-01

    Absolute backscatter coefficients in tissue-mimicking phantoms were experimentally determined in the 5–50 MHz frequency range using a broadband technique. A focused broadband transducer from a commercial research system, the VisualSonics Vevo 770, was used with two tissue-mimicking phantoms. The phantoms differed regarding the thin layers covering their surfaces to prevent desiccation and regarding glass bead concentrations and diameter distributions. Ultrasound scanning of these phantoms was performed through the thin layer. To avoid signal saturation, the power spectra obtained from the backscattered radio frequency signals were calibrated by using the signal from a liquid planar reflector, a water-brominated hydrocarbon interface with acoustic impedance close to that of water. Experimental values of absolute backscatter coefficients were compared with those predicted by the Faran scattering model over the frequency range 5–50 MHz. The mean percent difference and standard deviation was 54% ± 45% for the phantom with a mean glass bead diameter of 5.40 μm and was 47% ± 28% for the phantom with 5.16 μm mean diameter beads. PMID:21877789

  14. A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

    PubMed

    Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

    2014-02-15

    Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load

  15. Absolute optical metrology : nanometers to kilometers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubovitsky, Serge; Lay, O. P.; Peters, R. D.; Liebe, C. C.

    2005-01-01

    We provide and overview of the developments in the field of high-accuracy absolute optical metrology with emphasis on space-based applications. Specific work on the Modulation Sideband Technology for Absolute Ranging (MSTAR) sensor is described along with novel applications of the sensor.

  16. Absolute parameters and chemical composition of the binary star OU Gem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glazunova, L. V.; Mishenina, T. V.; Soubiran, C.; Kovtyukh, V. V.

    2014-10-01

    The absolute parameters and chemical composition of the BY Dra-type spectroscopic binary OU Gem (HD 45088) were determined on the basis of 10 high-resolution spectra. A new orbital solution of the binary system was determined, the binary ephemerides were specified, and the main physical and atmospheric parameters of the binary components were obtained. The chemical composition of both components was estimated for the first time for the stars of such type.

  17. Relative risk estimates from spatial and space-time scan statistics: Are they biased?

    PubMed Central

    Prates, Marcos O.; Kulldorff, Martin; Assunção, Renato M.

    2014-01-01

    The purely spatial and space-time scan statistics have been successfully used by many scientists to detect and evaluate geographical disease clusters. Although the scan statistic has high power in correctly identifying a cluster, no study has considered the estimates of the cluster relative risk in the detected cluster. In this paper we evaluate whether there is any bias on these estimated relative risks. Intuitively, one may expect that the estimated relative risks has upward bias, since the scan statistic cherry picks high rate areas to include in the cluster. We show that this intuition is correct for clusters with low statistical power, but with medium to high power the bias becomes negligible. The same behaviour is not observed for the prospective space-time scan statistic, where there is an increasing conservative downward bias of the relative risk as the power to detect the cluster increases. PMID:24639031

  18. Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

  19. Corsica: A Multi-Mission Absolute Calibration Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonnefond, P.; Exertier, P.; Laurain, O.; Guinle, T.; Femenias, P.

    2013-09-01

    In collaboration with the CNES and NASA oceanographic projects (TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason), the OCA (Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur) developed a verification site in Corsica since 1996, operational since 1998. CALibration/VALidation embraces a wide variety of activities, ranging from the interpretation of information from internal-calibration modes of the sensors to validation of the fully corrected estimates of the reflector heights using in situ data. Now, Corsica is, like the Harvest platform (NASA side) [14], an operating calibration site able to support a continuous monitoring with a high level of accuracy: a 'point calibration' which yields instantaneous bias estimates with a 10-day repeatability of 30 mm (standard deviation) and mean errors of 4 mm (standard error). For a 35-day repeatability (ERS, Envisat), due to a smaller time series, the standard error is about the double ( 7 mm).In this paper, we will present updated results of the absolute Sea Surface Height (SSH) biases for TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), Jason-1, Jason-2, ERS-2 and Envisat.

  20. Risk profile of breast cancer following atypical hyperplasia detected through organized screening.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Elizabeth; Sullivan, Tom; Farshid, Gelareh; Hiller, Janet; Roder, David

    2015-06-01

    Few population-based data are available indicating the breast cancer risk following detection of atypia within a breast screening program. Prospectively collected data from the South Australian screening program were linked with the state cancer registry. Absolute and relative breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for ADH and ALH separately, and by age at diagnosis and time since diagnosis. Post-hoc analysis was undertaken of the effect of family history on breast cancer risk. Women with ADH and ALH had an increase in relative risk for malignancy (ADH HR 2.81 [95% CI 1.72, 4.59] and (ALH HR 4.14 [95% CI 1.97, 8.69], respectively. Differences in risk profile according to time since diagnosis and age at diagnosis were not statistically significant. Estimates of the relative risk of breast cancer are necessary to inform decisions regarding clinical management and/or treatment of women with ADH and ALH. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. An Evidenced-Based Approach for Estimating Decompression Sickness Risk in Aircraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ronald R.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Conkin, Johnny

    1999-01-01

    Estimating the risk of decompression Sickness (DCS) in aircraft operations remains a challenge, making the reduction of this risk through the development of operationally acceptable denitrogenation schedules difficult. In addition, the medical recommendations which are promulgated are often not supported by rigorous evaluation of the available data, but are instead arrived at by negotiation with the aircraft operations community, are adapted from other similar aircraft operations, or are based upon the opinion of the local medical community. We present a systematic approach for defining DCS risk in aircraft operations by analyzing the data available for a specific aircraft, flight profile, and aviator population. Once the risk of DCS in a particular aircraft operation is known, appropriate steps can be taken to reduce this risk to a level acceptable to the applicable aviation community. Using this technique will allow any aviation medical community to arrive at the best estimate of DCS risk for its specific mission and aviator population and will allow systematic reevaluation of the decisions regarding DCS risk reduction when additional data are available.

  2. Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

    2017-05-01

    Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

  3. Absolute instability of the Gaussian wake profile

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hultgren, Lennart S.; Aggarwal, Arun K.

    1987-01-01

    Linear parallel-flow stability theory has been used to investigate the effect of viscosity on the local absolute instability of a family of wake profiles with a Gaussian velocity distribution. The type of local instability, i.e., convective or absolute, is determined by the location of a branch-point singularity with zero group velocity of the complex dispersion relation for the instability waves. The effects of viscosity were found to be weak for values of the wake Reynolds number, based on the center-line velocity defect and the wake half-width, larger than about 400. Absolute instability occurs only for sufficiently large values of the center-line wake defect. The critical value of this parameter increases with decreasing wake Reynolds number, thereby indicating a shrinking region of absolute instability with decreasing wake Reynolds number. If backflow is not allowed, absolute instability does not occur for wake Reynolds numbers smaller than about 38.

  4. On the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crane, R. K.

    1992-01-01

    Viewgraphs from a presentation on the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction is presented. Topics covered include: link failure - attenuation exceeding a specified threshold for a specified time interval or intervals; risk - the probability of one or more failures during the lifetime of the link or during a specified accounting interval; the problem - modeling the probability of attenuation by rainfall to provide a prediction of the attenuation threshold for a specified risk; and an accounting for the inadequacy of a model or models.

  5. 49 CFR 236.709 - Block, absolute.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Block, absolute. 236.709 Section 236.709 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION... Block, absolute. A block in which no train is permitted to enter while it is occupied by another train. ...

  6. 49 CFR 236.709 - Block, absolute.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Block, absolute. 236.709 Section 236.709 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION... Block, absolute. A block in which no train is permitted to enter while it is occupied by another train. ...

  7. A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR CALCULATING REAL-TIME QUANTITATIVE PCR CALIBRATION CURVES USING ABSOLUTE PLASMID DNA STANDARDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    In real-time quantitative PCR studies using absolute plasmid DNA standards, a calibration curve is developed to estimate an unknown DNA concentration. However, potential differences in the amplification performance of plasmid DNA compared to genomic DNA standards are often ignore...

  8. Absolute quantification of microbial taxon abundances.

    PubMed

    Props, Ruben; Kerckhof, Frederiek-Maarten; Rubbens, Peter; De Vrieze, Jo; Hernandez Sanabria, Emma; Waegeman, Willem; Monsieurs, Pieter; Hammes, Frederik; Boon, Nico

    2017-02-01

    High-throughput amplicon sequencing has become a well-established approach for microbial community profiling. Correlating shifts in the relative abundances of bacterial taxa with environmental gradients is the goal of many microbiome surveys. As the abundances generated by this technology are semi-quantitative by definition, the observed dynamics may not accurately reflect those of the actual taxon densities. We combined the sequencing approach (16S rRNA gene) with robust single-cell enumeration technologies (flow cytometry) to quantify the absolute taxon abundances. A detailed longitudinal analysis of the absolute abundances resulted in distinct abundance profiles that were less ambiguous and expressed in units that can be directly compared across studies. We further provide evidence that the enrichment of taxa (increase in relative abundance) does not necessarily relate to the outgrowth of taxa (increase in absolute abundance). Our results highlight that both relative and absolute abundances should be considered for a comprehensive biological interpretation of microbiome surveys.

  9. Geostatistical risk estimation at waste disposal sites in the presence of hot spots.

    PubMed

    Komnitsas, Kostas; Modis, Kostas

    2009-05-30

    The present paper aims to estimate risk by using geostatistics at the wider coal mining/waste disposal site of Belkovskaya, Tula region, in Russia. In this area the presence of hot spots causes a spatial trend in the mean value of the random field and a non-Gaussian data distribution. Prior to application of geostatistics, subtraction of trend and appropriate smoothing and transformation of the data into a Gaussian form were carried out; risk maps were then generated for the wider study area in order to assess the probability of exceeding risk thresholds. Finally, the present paper discusses the need for homogenization of soil risk thresholds regarding hazardous elements that will enhance reliability of risk estimation and enable application of appropriate rehabilitation actions in contaminated areas.

  10. Estimation of radiation cancer risk in CT-KUB

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karim, M. K. A.; Hashim, S.; Bakar, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.; Ang, W. C.; Bahrudin, N. A.; Mhareb, M. H. A.

    2017-08-01

    The increased demand for computed tomography (CT) in radiological scanning examinations raises the question of a potential health impact from the associated radiation exposures. Focusing on CT kidney-ureter-bladder (CT-KUB) procedures, this work was aimed at determining organ equivalent dose using a commercial CT dose calculator and providing an estimate of cancer risks. The study, which included 64 patients (32 males and 32 females, mean age 55.5 years and age range 30-80 years), involved use of a calibrated CT scanner (Siemens-Somatom Emotion 16-slice). The CT exposures parameter including tube potential, pitch factor, tube current, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded and analyzed using CT-EXPO (Version 2.3.1, Germany). Patient organ doses, including for stomach, liver, colon, bladder, red bone marrow, prostate and ovaries were calculated and converted into cancer risks using age- and sex-specific data published in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report. With a median value scan range of 36.1 cm, the CTDIvol, DLP, and effective dose were found to be 10.7 mGy, 390.3 mGy cm and 6.2 mSv, respectively. The mean cancer risks for males and females were estimated to be respectively 25 and 46 out of 100,000 procedures with effective doses between 4.2 mSv and 10.1 mSv. Given the increased cancer risks from current CT-KUB procedures compared to conventional examinations, we propose that the low dose protocols for unenhanced CT procedures be taken into consideration before establishing imaging protocols for CT-KUB.

  11. Mother's education and offspring asthma risk in 10 European cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Kate Marie; Ruiz, Milagros; Goldblatt, Peter; Morrison, Joana; Porta, Daniela; Forastiere, Francesco; Hryhorczuk, Daniel; Zvinchuk, Oleksandr; Saurel-Cubizolles, Marie-Josephe; Lioret, Sandrine; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Vrijheid, Martine; Torrent, Maties; Iniguez, Carmen; Larranaga, Isabel; Harskamp-van Ginkel, Margreet W; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Klanova, Jana; Svancara, Jan; Barross, Henrique; Correia, Sofia; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Taanila, Anja; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Faresjo, Tomas; Marmot, Michael; Pikhart, Hynek

    2017-09-01

    Highly prevalent and typically beginning in childhood, asthma is a burdensome disease, yet the risk factors for this condition are not clarified. To enhance understanding, this study assessed the cohort-specific and pooled risk of maternal education on asthma in children aged 3-8 across 10 European countries. Data on 47,099 children were obtained from prospective birth cohort studies across 10 European countries. We calculated cohort-specific prevalence difference in asthma outcomes using the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII). Results from all countries were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis procedures to obtain mean RII and SII scores at the European level. Final models were adjusted for child sex, smoking during pregnancy, parity, mother's age and ethnicity. The higher the score the greater the magnitude of relative (RII, reference 1) and absolute (SII, reference 0) inequity. The pooled RII estimate for asthma risk across all cohorts was 1.46 (95% CI 1.26, 1.71) and the pooled SII estimate was 1.90 (95% CI 0.26, 3.54). Of the countries examined, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands had the highest prevalence's of childhood asthma and the largest inequity in asthma risk. Smaller inverse associations were noted for all other countries except Italy, which presented contradictory scores, but with small effect sizes. Tests for heterogeneity yielded significant results for SII scores. Overall, offspring of mothers with a low level of education had an increased relative and absolute risk of asthma compared to offspring of high-educated mothers.

  12. Absolute Humidity and the Seasonality of Influenza (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.; Pitzer, V.; Viboud, C.; Grenfell, B.; Goldstein, E.; Lipsitch, M.

    2010-12-01

    Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent re-analysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here we show that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions. In addition, we show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in absolute humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions. Indeed, absolute humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of absolute humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility and changes in population mixing and contact rates.

  13. Estimating Longitudinal Risks and Benefits From Cardiovascular Preventive Therapies Among Medicare Patients: The Million Hearts Longitudinal ASCVD Risk Assessment Tool

    PubMed Central

    Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Huffman, Mark D.; Karmali, Kunal N.; Sanghavi, Darshak M.; Wright, Janet S.; Pelser, Colleen; Gulati, Martha; Masoudi, Frederick A.; Goff, David C.

    2016-01-01

    The Million Hearts Initiative has a goal of preventing 1 million heart attacks and strokes—the leading causes of mortality—through several public health and healthcare strategies by 2017. The American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology support the program. The Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model was developed by Million Hearts and the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services as a strategy to asses a value-based payment approach toward reduction in 10-year predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by implementing cardiovascular preventive strategies to manage the “ABCS” (aspirin therapy in appropriate patients, blood pressure control, cholesterol management, and smoking cessation). The purpose of this special report is to describe the development and intended use of the Million Hearts Longitudinal ASCVD Risk Assessment Tool. The Million Hearts Tool reinforces and builds on the “2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk” by allowing clinicians to estimate baseline and updated 10-year ASCVD risk estimates for primary prevention patients adhering to the appropriate ABCS over time, alone or in combination. The tool provides updated risk estimates based on evidence from high-quality systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the ABCS therapies. This novel approach to personalized estimation of benefits from risk-reducing therapies in primary prevention may help target therapies to those in whom they will provide the greatest benefit, and serves as the basis for a Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services program designed to evaluate the Million Hearts Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model. PMID:27825770

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

  15. Absolute versus relative measures of plasma fatty acids and health outcomes: example of phospholipid omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids and all-cause mortality in women.

    PubMed

    Miura, Kyoko; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Ungerer, Jacobus P J; Smith, David D; Green, Adèle C

    2018-03-01

    In a well-characterised community-based prospective study, we aimed to systematically assess the differences in associations of plasma omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acid (FA) status with all-cause mortality when plasma FA status is expressed in absolute concentrations versus relative levels. In a community sample of 564 women aged 25-75 years in Queensland, Australia, baseline plasma phospholipid FA levels were measured using gas chromatography. Specific FAs analysed were eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, total long-chain omega-3 FAs, linoleic acid, arachidonic acid, and total omega-6 FAs. Levels of each FA were expressed in absolute amounts (µg/mL) and relative levels (% of total FAs) and divided into thirds. Deaths were monitored for 17 years and hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals calculated to assess risk of death according to absolute versus relative plasma FA levels. In total 81 (14%) women died during follow-up. Agreement between absolute and relative measures of plasma FAs was higher in omega-3 than omega-6 FAs. The results of multivariate analyses for risk of all-cause mortality were generally similar with risk tending to inverse associations with plasma phospholipid omega-3 FAs and no association with omega-6 FAs. Sensitivity analyses examining effects of age and presence of serious medical conditions on risk of mortality did not alter findings. The directions and magnitude of associations with mortality of absolute versus relative FA levels were comparable. However, plasma FA expressed as absolute concentrations may be preferred for ease of comparison and since relative units can be deduced from absolute units.

  16. Coronary calcium predicts events better with absolute calcium scores than age-sex-race/ethnicity percentiles: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

    PubMed

    Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram; McClelland, Robyn L; Detrano, Robert; Wong, Nathan; Blumenthal, Roger S; Kondos, George; Kronmal, Richard A

    2009-01-27

    In this study, we aimed to establish whether age-sex-specific percentiles of coronary artery calcium (CAC) predict cardiovascular outcomes better than the actual (absolute) CAC score. The presence and extent of CAC correlates with the overall magnitude of coronary atherosclerotic plaque burden and with the development of subsequent coronary events. MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 asymptomatic participants followed for coronary heart disease (CHD) events including myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death. Time to incident CHD was modeled with Cox regression, and we compared models with percentiles based on age, sex, and/or race/ethnicity to categories commonly used (0, 1 to 100, 101 to 400, 400+ Agatston units). There were 163 (2.4%) incident CHD events (median follow-up 3.75 years). Expressing CAC in terms of age- and sex-specific percentiles had significantly lower area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than when using absolute scores (women: AUC 0.73 versus 0.76, p = 0.044; men: AUC 0.73 versus 0.77, p < 0.001). Akaike's information criterion indicated better model fit with the overall score. Both methods robustly predicted events (>90th percentile associated with a hazard ratio [HR] of 16.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.30 to 28.9, and score >400 associated with HR of 20.6, 95% CI: 11.8 to 36.0). Within groups based on age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles there remains a clear trend of increasing risk across levels of the absolute CAC groups. In contrast, once absolute CAC category is fixed, there is no increasing trend across levels of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific categories. Patients with low absolute scores are low-risk, regardless of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentile rank. Persons with an absolute CAC score of >400 are high risk, regardless of percentile rank. Using absolute CAC in standard groups performed

  17. Estimating the risk of a scuba diving fatality in Australia.

    PubMed

    Lippmann, John; Stevenson, Christopher; McD Taylor, David; Williams, Jo

    2016-12-01

    There are few data available on which to estimate the risk of death for Australian divers. This report estimates the risk of a scuba diving fatality for Australian residents, international tourists diving in Queensland, and clients of a large Victorian dive operator. Numerators for the estimates were obtained from the Divers Alert Network Asia-Pacific dive fatality database. Denominators were derived from three sources: Participation in Exercise, Recreation and Sport Surveys, 2001-2010 (Australian resident diving activity data); Tourism Research Australia surveys of international visitors to Queensland 2006-2014 and a dive operator in Victoria 2007-2014. Annual fatality rates (AFR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using an exact binomial test. Estimated AFRs were: 0.48 (0.37-0.59) deaths per 100,000 dives, or 8.73 (6.85-10.96) deaths per 100,000 divers for Australian residents; 0.12 (0.05-0.25) deaths per 100,000 dives, or 0.46 (0.20-0.91) deaths per 100,000 divers for international visitors to Queensland; and 1.64 (0.20-5.93) deaths per 100,000 dives for the dive operator in Victoria. On a per diver basis, Australian residents are estimated to be almost twenty times more likely to die whilst scuba diving than are international visitors to Queensland, or to lower than fourfold on a per dive basis. On a per dive basis, divers in Victoria are fourteen times more likely to die than are Queensland international tourists. Although some of the estimates are based on potentially unreliable denominator data extrapolated from surveys, the diving fatality rates in Australia appear to vary by State, being considerably lower in Queensland than in Victoria. These estimates are similar to or lower than comparable overseas estimates, although reliability of all such measurements varies with study size and accuracy of the data available.

  18. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  19. A technique for estimating the absolute gain of a photomultiplier tube

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, M.; Inome, Y.; Yoshii, S.; Bamba, A.; Gunji, S.; Hadasch, D.; Hayashida, M.; Katagiri, H.; Konno, Y.; Kubo, H.; Kushida, J.; Nakajima, D.; Nakamori, T.; Nagayoshi, T.; Nishijima, K.; Nozaki, S.; Mazin, D.; Mashuda, S.; Mirzoyan, R.; Ohoka, H.; Orito, R.; Saito, T.; Sakurai, S.; Takeda, J.; Teshima, M.; Terada, Y.; Tokanai, F.; Yamamoto, T.; Yoshida, T.

    2018-06-01

    Detection of low-intensity light relies on the conversion of photons to photoelectrons, which are then multiplied and detected as an electrical signal. To measure the actual intensity of the light, one must know the factor by which the photoelectrons have been multiplied. To obtain this amplification factor, we have developed a procedure for estimating precisely the signal caused by a single photoelectron. The method utilizes the fact that the photoelectrons conform to a Poisson distribution. The average signal produced by a single photoelectron can then be estimated from the number of noise events, without requiring analysis of the distribution of the signal produced by a single photoelectron. The signal produced by one or more photoelectrons can be estimated experimentally without any assumptions. This technique, and an example of the analysis of a signal from a photomultiplier tube, are described in this study.

  20. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

    PubMed

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  1. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels. PMID:26351652

  2. Association between subjective risk perception and objective risk estimation in patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Zweiker, David; Zweiker, Robert; Winkler, Elisabeth; Roesch, Konstantina; Schumacher, Martin; Stepan, Vinzenz; Krippl, Peter; Bauer, Norbert; Heine, Martin; Reicht, Gerhard; Zweiker, Gudrun; Sprenger, Martin; Watzinger, Norbert

    2017-09-25

    Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is state-of-the-art therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia worldwide. However, little is known about the perception of patients with AF and how it correlates with risk scores used by their physicians. Therefore, we correlated patients' estimates of their own stroke and bleeding risk with the objectively predicted individual risk using CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores. Cross-sectional prevalence study using convenience sampling and telephone follow-up. Eight hospital departments and one general practitioner in Austria. Patients' perception of stroke and bleeding risk was opposed to commonly used risk scoring. Patients with newly diagnosed AF and indication for anticoagulation. Comparison of subjective risk perception with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores showing possible discrepancies between subjective and objective risk estimation. Patients' judgement of their own knowledge on AF and education were also correlated with accuracy of subjective risk appraisal. Ninety-one patients (age 73±11 years, 45% female) were included in this study. Subjective stroke and bleeding risk estimation did not correlate with risk scores (ρ=0.08 and ρ=0.17). The majority of patients (57%) underestimated the individual stroke risk. Patients feared stroke more than bleeding (67% vs 10%). There was no relationship between accurate perception of stroke and bleeding risks and education level. However, we found a correlation between the patients' judgement of their own knowledge of AF and correct assessment of individual stroke risk (ρ=0.24, p=0.02). During follow-up, patients experienced the following events: death (n=5), stroke (n=2), bleeding (n=1). OAC discontinuation rate despite indication was 3%. In this cross-sectional analysis of OAC-naive patients with AF, we found major differences between patients' perceptions and physicians' assessments of risks and benefits of OAC. To ensure shared decision-making and informed

  3. Estimates of auditory risk from outdoor impulse noise. II: Civilian firearms.

    PubMed

    Flamme, Gregory A; Wong, Adam; Liebe, Kevin; Lynd, James

    2009-01-01

    Firearm impulses are common noise exposures in the United States. This study records, describes and analyzes impulses produced outdoors by civilian firearms with respect to the amount of auditory risk they pose to the unprotected listener under various listening conditions. Risk estimates were obtained using three contemporary damage risk criteria (DRC) including a waveform parameter-based approach (peak SPL and B-duration), an energy-based criterion (A-weighted SEL and equivalent continuous level) and a physiological model (AHAAH). Results from these DRC were converted into a number of maximum permissible unprotected exposures to facilitate interpretation. Acoustic characteristics of firearm impulses differed substantially across guns, ammunition, and microphone location. The type of gun, ammunition and the microphone location all significantly affected estimates of auditory risk from firearms. Vast differences in maximum permissible exposures were observed; the rank order of the differences varied with the source of the impulse. Unprotected exposure to firearm noise is not recommended, but people electing to fire a gun without hearing protection should be advised to minimize auditory risk through careful selection of ammunition and shooting environment. Small-caliber guns with long barrels and guns loaded with the least powerful ammunition tend to be associated with the least auditory risk.

  4. Low absolute neutrophil counts in African infants.

    PubMed

    Kourtis, Athena P; Bramson, Brian; van der Horst, Charles; Kazembe, Peter; Ahmed, Yusuf; Chasela, Charles; Hosseinipour, Mina; Knight, Rodney; Lugalia, Lebah; Tegha, Gerald; Joaki, George; Jafali, Robert; Jamieson, Denise J

    2005-07-01

    Infants of African origin have a lower normal range of absolute neutrophil counts than white infants; this fact, however, remains under appreciated by clinical researchers in the United States. During the initial stages of a clinical trial in Malawi, the authors noted an unexpectedly high number of infants with absolute neutrophil counts that would be classifiable as neutropenic using the National Institutes of Health's Division of AIDS toxicity tables. The authors argue that the relevant Division of AIDS table does not take into account the available evidence of low absolute neutrophil counts in African infants and that a systematic collection of data from many African settings might help establish the absolute neutrophil count cutpoints to be used for defining neutropenia in African populations.

  5. Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

    PubMed

    Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Absolute bioavailability and pharmacokinetics of avosentan in man.

    PubMed

    Dieterle, W; Hengelage, T

    2009-09-01

    Avosentan is a potent, selective endothelin A receptor blocker. The pharmacokinetics of avosentan were investigated in healthy male and female volunteers, following oral and i.v. administration of single doses of avosentan and its absolute bioavailability was determined. In a randomized, balanced open-label, three-period oral crossover study, 26 healthy subjects (19 males and 7 females) received Treatments A, B and C. Treatment A consisted of a single dose of a 25 mg film-coated tablet of avosentan, Treatment B of a single dose of a 50 mg film-coated tablet of avosentan and Treatment C of 10 mg avosentan in 20 ml solution for infusion for 20 minutes (10 mg avosentan in 20 ml phosphate buffer pH 9.0 containing 1% polysorbate 20). Plasma concentrations of avosentan and its hydroxymethyl metabolite Ro 68-5925 were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The absolute bioavailability values (compared with i.v. infusion) for the 25 and 50 mg film-coated tablets were 81% and 72%, respectively. The extent of absorption, as measured by partial and total AUC, increased almost proportionally with the dose. The estimated proportionality coefficient for AUC0- yen was 1.12 (90% CI 1.06, 1.18). For the rate of absorption (Cmax) strict dose-proportionality was not demonstrated (proportionality coefficient 1.13 (90% CI 1.0, 1.28)). No relevant gender differences in the pharmacokinetic characteristics were evident after a single i.v. dose and at an oral dose of 25 mg, whereas after oral administration of 50 mg of avosentan differences were seen in Cmax and t1/2. The absolute bioavailability of avosentan film-coated tablets is high, i.e. 70 - 80%.

  7. Globular Clusters: Absolute Proper Motions and Galactic Orbits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chemel, A. A.; Glushkova, E. V.; Dambis, A. K.; Rastorguev, A. S.; Yalyalieva, L. N.; Klinichev, A. D.

    2018-04-01

    We cross-match objects from several different astronomical catalogs to determine the absolute proper motions of stars within the 30-arcmin radius fields of 115 Milky-Way globular clusters with the accuracy of 1-2 mas yr-1. The proper motions are based on positional data recovered from the USNO-B1, 2MASS, URAT1, ALLWISE, UCAC5, and Gaia DR1 surveys with up to ten positions spanning an epoch difference of up to about 65 years, and reduced to Gaia DR1 TGAS frame using UCAC5 as the reference catalog. Cluster members are photometrically identified by selecting horizontal- and red-giant branch stars on color-magnitude diagrams, and the mean absolute proper motions of the clusters with a typical formal error of about 0.4 mas yr-1 are computed by averaging the proper motions of selected members. The inferred absolute proper motions of clusters are combined with available radial-velocity data and heliocentric distance estimates to compute the cluster orbits in terms of the Galactic potential models based on Miyamoto and Nagai disk, Hernquist spheroid, and modified isothermal dark-matter halo (axisymmetric model without a bar) and the same model + rotating Ferre's bar (non-axisymmetric). Five distant clusters have higher-than-escape velocities, most likely due to large errors of computed transversal velocities, whereas the computed orbits of all other clusters remain bound to the Galaxy. Unlike previously published results, we find the bar to affect substantially the orbits of most of the clusters, even those at large Galactocentric distances, bringing appreciable chaotization, especially in the portions of the orbits close to the Galactic center, and stretching out the orbits of some of the thick-disk clusters.

  8. Simulation Study of the Effect of Influenza and Influenza Vaccination on Risk of Acquiring Guillain-Barré Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Deeks, Shelley L.; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; McGeer, Allison J.; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A.; Coyle, Doug

    2015-01-01

    It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was −0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval −1.22 to 0.28) and −0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, –3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients. PMID:25625590

  9. Familial Risk and Heritability of Cancer Among Twins in Nordic Countries

    PubMed Central

    Mucci, Lorelei A.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.; Harris, Jennifer R.; Czene, Kamila; Havelick, David J.; Scheike, Thomas; Graff, Rebecca E.; Holst, Klaus; Möller, Sören; Unger, Robert H.; McIntosh, Christina; Nuttall, Elizabeth; Brandt, Ingunn; Penney, Kathryn L.; Hartman, Mikael; Kraft, Peter; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Christensen, Kaare; Koskenvuo, Markku; Holm, Niels V.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Pukkala, Eero; Skytthe, Axel; Adami, Hans-Olov; Kaprio, Jaakko

    2017-01-01

    Importance Estimates of familial cancer risk from population-based studies are essential components of cancer risk prediction. Objective To estimate familial risk and heritability of cancer types in a large twin cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective study of 80 309 monozygotic and 123 382 same-sex dizygotic twin individuals (N = 203 691) within the population-based registers of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Twins were followed up a median of 32 years between 1943 and 2010. There were 50 990 individuals who died of any cause, and 3804 who emigrated and were lost to follow-up. Exposures Shared environmental and heritable risk factors among pairs of twins. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome was incident cancer. Time-to-event analyses were used to estimate familial risk (risk of cancer in an individual given a twin's development of cancer) and heritability (proportion of variance in cancer risk due to interindividual genetic differences) with follow-up via cancer registries. Statistical models adjusted for age and follow-up time, and accounted for censoring and competing risk of death. Results A total of 27 156 incident cancers were diagnosed in 23 980 individuals, translating to a cumulative incidence of 32%. Cancer was diagnosed in both twins among 1383 monozygotic (2766 individuals) and 1933 dizygotic (2866 individuals) pairs. Of these, 38% of monozygotic and 26% of dizygotic pairs were diagnosed with the same cancer type. There was an excess cancer risk in twins whose co-twin was diagnosed with cancer, with estimated cumulative risks that were an absolute 5% (95% CI, 4%-6%) higher in dizygotic (37%; 95% CI, 36%-38%) and an absolute 14% (95% CI, 12%-16%) higher in monozygotic twins (46%; 95% CI, 44%-48%) whose twin also developed cancer compared with the cumulative risk in the overall cohort (32%). For most cancer types, there were significant familial risks and the cumulative risks were higher in monozygotic than dizygotic twins

  10. Estimating Children's Soil/Dust Ingestion Rates through ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Background: Soil/dust ingestion rates are important variables in assessing children’s health risks in contaminated environments. Current estimates are based largely on soil tracer methodology, which is limited by analytical uncertainty, small sample size, and short study duration. Objectives: The objective was to estimate site-specific soil/dust ingestion rates through reevaluation of the lead absorption dose–response relationship using new bioavailability data from the Bunker Hill Mining and Metallurgical Complex Superfund Site (BHSS) in Idaho, USA. Methods: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in vitro bioavailability methodology was applied to archived BHSS soil and dust samples. Using age-specific biokinetic slope factors, we related bioavailable lead from these sources to children’s blood lead levels (BLLs) monitored during cleanup from 1988 through 2002. Quantitative regression analyses and exposure assessment guidance were used to develop candidate soil/dust source partition scenarios estimating lead intake, allowing estimation of age-specific soil/dust ingestion rates. These ingestion rate and bioavailability estimates were simultaneously applied to the U.S. EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children to determine those combinations best approximating observed BLLs. Results: Absolute soil and house dust bioavailability averaged 33% (SD ± 4%) and 28% (SD ± 6%), respectively. Estimated BHSS age-specific soil/du

  11. Parenchymal Texture Analysis in Digital Breast Tomosynthesis for Breast Cancer Risk Estimation: A Preliminary Study

    PubMed Central

    Kontos, Despina; Bakic, Predrag R.; Carton, Ann-Katherine; Troxel, Andrea B.; Conant, Emily F.; Maidment, Andrew D.A.

    2009-01-01

    Rationale and Objectives Studies have demonstrated a relationship between mammographic parenchymal texture and breast cancer risk. Although promising, texture analysis in mammograms is limited by tissue superimposition. Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a novel tomographic x-ray breast imaging modality that alleviates the effect of tissue superimposition, offering superior parenchymal texture visualization compared to mammography. Our study investigates the potential advantages of DBT parenchymal texture analysis for breast cancer risk estimation. Materials and Methods DBT and digital mammography (DM) images of 39 women were analyzed. Texture features, shown in studies with mammograms to correlate with cancer risk, were computed from the retroareolar breast region. We compared the relative performance of DBT and DM texture features in correlating with two measures of breast cancer risk: (i) the Gail and Claus risk estimates, and (ii) mammographic breast density. Linear regression was performed to model the association between texture features and increasing levels of risk. Results No significant correlation was detected between parenchymal texture and the Gail and Claus risk estimates. Significant correlations were observed between texture features and breast density. Overall, the DBT texture features demonstrated stronger correlations with breast percent density (PD) than DM (p ≤0.05). When dividing our study population in groups of increasing breast PD, the DBT texture features appeared to be more discriminative, having regression lines with overall lower p-values, steeper slopes, and higher R2 estimates. Conclusion Although preliminary, our results suggest that DBT parenchymal texture analysis could provide more accurate characterization of breast density patterns, which could ultimately improve breast cancer risk estimation. PMID:19201357

  12. Estimating the risk of dengue transmission from Dutch blood donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean.

    PubMed

    Oei, W; Lieshout-Krikke, R W; Kretzschmar, M E; Zaaijer, H L; Coutinho, R A; Eersel, M; Jubithana, B; Halabi, Y; Gerstenbluth, I; Maduro, E; Tromp, M; Janssen, M P

    2016-05-01

    The risk of dengue transmitted by travellers is known. Methods to estimate the transmission by transfusion (TT) risk from blood donors travelling to risk areas are available, for instance, the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT). This study aimed to validate the estimated risk from travelling donors obtained from EUFRAT. Surveillance data on notified dengue cases in Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands (Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba) in 2001-2011 was used to calculate local incidence rates. Information on travel and donation behaviour of Dutch donors was collected. With the EUFRAT model, the TT risks from Dutch travelling donors were calculated. Model estimates were compared with the number of infections in Dutch travellers found by laboratory tests in the Netherlands. The expected cumulative number of donors becoming infected during travels to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean from 2001 to 2011 was estimated at 5 (95% CI, 2-11) and 86 (45-179), respectively. The infection risk inferred from the laboratory-based study was 19 (9-61) and 28 (14-92). Given the independence of the data sources, these estimates are remarkably close. The model estimated that 0·02 (0·001-0·06) and 0·40 (0·01-1·4) recipients would have been infected by these travelling donors. The EUFRAT model provided an estimate close to actual observed number of dengue infections. The dengue TT risk among Dutch travelling donors can be estimated using basic transmission, travel and donation information. The TT risk from Dutch donors travelling to Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean is small. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  13. Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture to Estimate Fire Risk in Tropical Peatlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dadap, N.; Cobb, A.; Hoyt, A.; Harvey, C. F.; Konings, A. G.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical peatlands in Equatorial Asia have become more vulnerable to fire due to deforestation and peatland drainage over the last 30 years. In these regions, water table depth has been shown to play an important role in mediating fire risk as it serves as a proxy for peat moisture content. However, water table depth observations are sparse and expensive. Soil moisture could provide a more direct indicator of fire risk than water table depth. In this study, we use new soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to demonstrate that - contrary to popular wisdom - remotely sensed soil moisture observations are possible over most Southeast Asian peatlands. Soil moisture estimation in this region was previously thought to be impossible over tropical peatlands because of dense vegetation cover. We show that vegetation density is sufficiently low across most Equatorial Asian peatlands to allow soil moisture estimation, and hypothesize that deforestation and other anthropogenic changes in land cover have combined to reduce overall vegetation density sufficient to allow soil moisture estimation. We further combine burned area estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database and SMAP soil moisture retrievals to show that soil moisture provides a strong signal for fire risk in peatlands, with fires occurring at a much greater rate over drier soils. We will also develop an explicit fire risk model incorporating soil moisture with additional climatic, land cover, and anthropogenic predictor variables.

  14. Crossover effect of spouse weekly working hours on estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Kang, Mo-Yeol; Hong, Yun-Chul

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the association between spouse weekly working hours (SWWH) and the estimated 10-years risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This cross-sectional study was based on the data obtained from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012. Data of 16,917 participants (8,330 husbands, 8,587 wives) were used for this analysis. The participants' clinical data were collected to estimate the 10-years risk of CVD, as well as weekly working hours. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to investigate the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD. We also performed a stratified analysis according to each participant's and their spouse's employment status. Compared to those whose spouses worked 30 hours per week, estimated 10-years risk of CVD was significantly higher as SWWH increase among those whose spouses worked >30 hours per week. After adjusting for covariates, the odds ratio for high CVD risk was found to increase as SWWH increased, up to 2.52 among husbands and 2.43 among wives. We also found that the association between SWWH and the estimated 10-years risk of CVD varied according to the employment status. Analysis of each component included in the CVD appraisal model showed that SWWH had close relationship with diabetes in men, and smoking habits in women. Spouse's long working hours are associated with individual's risk of CVD in future, especially among husbands.

  15. Cryogenic, Absolute, High Pressure Sensor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chapman, John J. (Inventor); Shams. Qamar A. (Inventor); Powers, William T. (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A pressure sensor is provided for cryogenic, high pressure applications. A highly doped silicon piezoresistive pressure sensor is bonded to a silicon substrate in an absolute pressure sensing configuration. The absolute pressure sensor is bonded to an aluminum nitride substrate. Aluminum nitride has appropriate coefficient of thermal expansion for use with highly doped silicon at cryogenic temperatures. A group of sensors, either two sensors on two substrates or four sensors on a single substrate are packaged in a pressure vessel.

  16. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  17. Absolute Income, Relative Income, and Happiness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ball, Richard; Chernova, Kateryna

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses data from the World Values Survey to investigate how an individual's self-reported happiness is related to (i) the level of her income in absolute terms, and (ii) the level of her income relative to other people in her country. The main findings are that (i) both absolute and relative income are positively and significantly…

  18. Estimating cancer risk from 99mTc pyrophosphate imaging for transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis.

    PubMed

    Einstein, Andrew J; Shuryak, Igor; Castaño, Adam; Mintz, Akiva; Maurer, Mathew S; Bokhari, Sabahat

    2018-05-30

    Increasing recognition that transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CA) is much more common than previously appreciated and the emergence of novel disease-modifying therapeutic agents have led to a paradigm shift in which ATTR-CA screening is considered in high-risk populations, such as patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) or aortic stenosis. Radiation risk from 99m Tc-pyrophosphate ( 99m Tc-PYP) scintigraphy, a test with very high sensitivity and specificity for ATTR-CA, has not been previously determined. Radiation doses to individual organs from 99m Tc-PYP were estimated using models developed by the Medical Internal Radiation Dose Committee and the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Excess future cancer risks were estimated from organ doses, using risk projection models developed by the National Academies and extended by the National Cancer Institute. Excess future risks were estimated for men and women aged 40-80 and compared to total (excess plus baseline) future risks. All-organ excess cancer risks (90% uncertainty intervals) ranged from 5.88 (2.45,11.4) to 12.2 (4.11,26.0) cases per 100,000 patients undergoing 99m Tc-PYP testing, were similar for men and women, and decreased with increasing age at testing. Cancer risks were highest to the urinary bladder, and bladder risk varied nearly twofold depending on which model was used. Excess 99m Tc-PYP-related cancers constituted < 1% of total future cancers to the critical organs. Very low cancer risks associated with 99m Tc-PYP testing suggest a favorable benefit-risk profile for 99m Tc-PYP as a screening test for ATTR-CA in high-risk populations, such as such as patients with HFpEF or aortic stenosis.

  19. An absolute cavity pyrgeometer to measure the absolute outdoor longwave irradiance with traceability to international system of units, SI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reda, Ibrahim; Zeng, Jinan; Scheuch, Jonathan; Hanssen, Leonard; Wilthan, Boris; Myers, Daryl; Stoffel, Tom

    2012-03-01

    This article describes a method of measuring the absolute outdoor longwave irradiance using an absolute cavity pyrgeometer (ACP), U.S. Patent application no. 13/049, 275. The ACP consists of domeless thermopile pyrgeometer, gold-plated concentrator, temperature controller, and data acquisition. The dome was removed from the pyrgeometer to remove errors associated with dome transmittance and the dome correction factor. To avoid thermal convection and wind effect errors resulting from using a domeless thermopile, the gold-plated concentrator was placed above the thermopile. The concentrator is a dual compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) with 180° view angle to measure the outdoor incoming longwave irradiance from the atmosphere. The incoming irradiance is reflected from the specular gold surface of the CPC and concentrated on the 11 mm diameter of the pyrgeometer's blackened thermopile. The CPC's interior surface design and the resulting cavitation result in a throughput value that was characterized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. The ACP was installed horizontally outdoor on an aluminum plate connected to the temperature controller to control the pyrgeometer's case temperature. The responsivity of the pyrgeometer's thermopile detector was determined by lowering the case temperature and calculating the rate of change of the thermopile output voltage versus the changing net irradiance. The responsivity is then used to calculate the absolute atmospheric longwave irradiance with an uncertainty estimate (U95) of ±3.96 W m-2 with traceability to the International System of Units, SI. The measured irradiance was compared with the irradiance measured by two pyrgeometers calibrated by the World Radiation Center with traceability to the Interim World Infrared Standard Group, WISG. A total of 408 readings were collected over three different nights. The calculated irradiance measured by the ACP was 1.5 W/m2 lower than that measured by the two

  20. Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

    PubMed

    Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

    2017-07-01

    Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  1. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

    PubMed

    Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

    2010-08-01

    *Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

  2. Universal Cosmic Absolute and Modern Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostro, Ludwik

    The official Sciences, especially all natural sciences, respect in their researches the principle of methodic naturalism i.e. they consider all phenomena as entirely natural and therefore in their scientific explanations they do never adduce or cite supernatural entities and forces. The purpose of this paper is to show that Modern Science has its own self-existent, self-acting, and self-sufficient Natural All-in Being or Omni-Being i.e. the entire Nature as a Whole that justifies the scientific methodic naturalism. Since this Natural All-in Being is one and only It should be considered as the own scientifically justified Natural Absolute of Science and should be called, in my opinion, the Universal Cosmic Absolute of Modern Science. It will be also shown that the Universal Cosmic Absolute is ontologically enormously stratified and is in its ultimate i.e. in its most fundamental stratum trans-reistic and trans-personal. It means that in its basic stratum. It is neither a Thing or a Person although It contains in Itself all things and persons with all other sentient and conscious individuals as well, On the turn of the 20th century the Science has begun to look for a theory of everything, for a final theory, for a master theory. In my opinion the natural Universal Cosmic Absolute will constitute in such a theory the radical all penetrating Ultimate Basic Reality and will substitute step by step the traditional supernatural personal Absolute.

  3. Jasminum sambac flower absolutes from India and China--geographic variations.

    PubMed

    Braun, Norbert A; Sim, Sherina

    2012-05-01

    Seven Jasminum sambac flower absolutes from different locations in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu were analyzed using GC and GC-MS. Focus was placed on 41 key ingredients to investigate geographic variations in this species. These seven absolutes were compared with an Indian bud absolute and commercially available J. sambac flower absolutes from India and China. All absolutes showed broad variations for the 10 main ingredients between 8% and 96%. In addition, the odor of Indian and Chinese J. sambac flower absolutes were assessed.

  4. Independent coding of absolute duration and distance magnitudes in the prefrontal cortex

    PubMed Central

    Marcos, Encarni; Tsujimoto, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    The estimation of space and time can interfere with each other, and neuroimaging studies have shown overlapping activation in the parietal and prefrontal cortical areas. We used duration and distance discrimination tasks to determine whether space and time share resources in prefrontal cortex (PF) neurons. Monkeys were required to report which of two stimuli, a red circle or blue square, presented sequentially, were longer and farther, respectively, in the duration and distance tasks. In a previous study, we showed that relative duration and distance are coded by different populations of neurons and that the only common representation is related to goal coding. Here, we examined the coding of absolute duration and distance. Our results support a model of independent coding of absolute duration and distance metrics by demonstrating that not only relative magnitude but also absolute magnitude are independently coded in the PF. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Human behavioral studies have shown that spatial and duration judgments can interfere with each other. We investigated the neural representation of such magnitudes in the prefrontal cortex. We found that the two magnitudes are independently coded by prefrontal neurons. We suggest that the interference among magnitude judgments might depend on the goal rather than the perceptual resource sharing. PMID:27760814

  5. Advancing Absolute Calibration for JWST and Other Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieke, George; Bohlin, Ralph; Boyajian, Tabetha; Carey, Sean; Casagrande, Luca; Deustua, Susana; Gordon, Karl; Kraemer, Kathleen; Marengo, Massimo; Schlawin, Everett; Su, Kate; Sloan, Greg; Volk, Kevin

    2017-10-01

    We propose to exploit the unique optical stability of the Spitzer telescope, along with that of IRAC, to (1) transfer the accurate absolute calibration obtained with MSX on very bright stars directly to two reference stars within the dynamic range of the JWST imagers (and of other modern instrumentation); (2) establish a second accurate absolute calibration based on the absolutely calibrated spectrum of the sun, transferred onto the astronomical system via alpha Cen A; and (3) provide accurate infrared measurements for the 11 (of 15) highest priority stars with no such data but with accurate interferometrically measured diameters, allowing us to optimize determinations of effective temperatures using the infrared flux method and thus to extend the accurate absolute calibration spectrally. This program is integral to plans for an accurate absolute calibration of JWST and will also provide a valuable Spitzer legacy.

  6. Absolute radiometric calibration of advanced remote sensing systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slater, P. N.

    1982-01-01

    The distinction between the uses of relative and absolute spectroradiometric calibration of remote sensing systems is discussed. The advantages of detector-based absolute calibration are described, and the categories of relative and absolute system calibrations are listed. The limitations and problems associated with three common methods used for the absolute calibration of remote sensing systems are addressed. Two methods are proposed for the in-flight absolute calibration of advanced multispectral linear array systems. One makes use of a sun-illuminated panel in front of the sensor, the radiance of which is monitored by a spectrally flat pyroelectric radiometer. The other uses a large, uniform, high-radiance reference ground surface. The ground and atmospheric measurements required as input to a radiative transfer program to predict the radiance level at the entrance pupil of the orbital sensor are discussed, and the ground instrumentation is described.

  7. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2013-03-01

    This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

  8. Direct estimates of low-level radiation risks of lung cancer at two NRC-compliant nuclear installations: why are the new risk estimates 20 to 200 times the old official estimates?

    PubMed

    Bross, I D; Driscoll, D L

    1981-01-01

    An official report on the health hazards to nuclear submarine workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS), who were exposed to low-level ionizing radiation, was based on a casual inspection of the data and not on statistical analyses of the dosage-response relationships. When these analyses are done, serious hazards from lung cancer and other causes of death are shown. As a result of the recent studies on nuclear workers, the new risk estimates have been found to be much higher than the official estimates currently used in setting NRC permissible levels. The official BEIR estimates are about one lung cancer death per year per million persons per rem[s]. The PNS data show 189 lung cancer deaths per year per million persons per rem.

  9. Debiased orbit and absolute-magnitude distributions for near-Earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granvik, Mikael; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jedicke, Robert; Bolin, Bryce; Bottke, William F.; Beshore, Edward; Vokrouhlický, David; Nesvorný, David; Michel, Patrick

    2018-09-01

    The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies of individual NEOs and more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and absolute magnitude H in the range 17 < H < 25. The modeling approach improves upon the methodology originally developed by Bottke et al. (2000, Science 288, 2190-2194) in that it is, for example, based on more realistic orbit distributions and uses source-specific absolute-magnitude distributions that allow for a power-law slope that varies with H. We divide the main asteroid belt into six different entrance routes or regions (ER) to the NEO region: the ν6, 3:1J, 5:2J and 2:1J resonance complexes as well as Hungarias and Phocaeas. In addition we include the Jupiter-family comets as the primary cometary source of NEOs. We calibrate the model against NEO detections by Catalina Sky Surveys' stations 703 and G96 during 2005-2012, and utilize the complementary nature of these two systems to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated to the resulting model. We find that the (fitted) H distributions have significant differences, although most of them show a minimum power-law slope at H ∼ 20. As a consequence of the differences between the ER-specific H distributions we find significant variations in, for example, the NEO orbit distribution, average lifetime, and the relative contribution of different ERs as a function of H. The most important ERs are the ν6 and 3:1J resonance complexes with JFCs contributing a few percent of NEOs on average. A significant contribution from the Hungaria group leads to notable changes compared to the predictions by Bottke et al. in, for example, the orbit distribution and average lifetime of NEOs. We predict that there are 962-56+52 (802-42+48

  10. [Effects of gastric bypass on estimated cardiovascular risk in morbidly obese patients with metabolic syndrome].

    PubMed

    Corcelles, Ricard; Vidal, Josep; Delgado, Salvadora; Ibarzabal, Ainitze; Bravo, Raquel; Momblan, Dulce; Espert, Juanjo; Morales, Xavi; Almenara, Raúl; Lacy, Antonio M

    2014-01-01

    The major goal of surgical treatment in morbid obesity is to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with excess weight. In this sense, the main factors of death are cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of gastric bypass on cardiovascular risk estimation in patients after bariatric surgery. We retrospectively evaluated pre and postoperative cardiovascular risk estimation of 402 morbidly obese patients who underwent laparoscopic gastric bypass. The major variable studied is the cardiovascular risk estimation that is calculated preoperatively and after 12 months. Cardiovascular risk estimation analysis has been performed with the REGICOR Equation. REGICOR formulation allows calculating a 10 year risk of cardiovascular events adapted to the Spanish population and is expressed in percentages. We reported an overall 4.1±3.0 mean basal REGICOR score. One year after the operation, cardiovascular risk estimation significantly decreased to 2,2±1,6 (P<.001). In patients with metabolic syndrome according to ATP-III criteria, basal REGICOR score was 4.8±3.1 whereas in no metabolic syndrome patients 2.2±1.8. Evaluation 12 months after surgery, determined a significant reduction in both groups (metabolic syndrome and non metabolic syndrome) with a mean REGICOR score of 2.3±1.6 and 1.6±1.0 respectively. The results of our study demonstrate favorable effects of gastric bypass on the cardiovascular risk factors included in the REGICOR equation. Copyright © 2013 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  11. A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model of preterm birth risk among US Hispanic subgroups in relation to maternal nativity and education

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Previous research has documented heterogeneity in the effects of maternal education on adverse birth outcomes by nativity and Hispanic subgroup in the United States. In this article, we considered the risk of preterm birth (PTB) using 9 years of vital statistics birth data from New York City. We employed finer categorizations of exposure than used previously and estimated the risk dose-response across the range of education by nativity and ethnicity. Methods Using Bayesian random effects logistic regression models with restricted quadratic spline terms for years of completed maternal education, we calculated and plotted the estimated posterior probabilities of PTB (gestational age < 37 weeks) for each year of education by ethnic and nativity subgroups adjusted for only maternal age, as well as with more extensive covariate adjustments. We then estimated the posterior risk difference between native and foreign born mothers by ethnicity over the continuous range of education exposures. Results The risk of PTB varied substantially by education, nativity and ethnicity. Native born groups showed higher absolute risk of PTB and declining risk associated with higher levels of education beyond about 10 years, as did foreign-born Puerto Ricans. For most other foreign born groups, however, risk of PTB was flatter across the education range. For Mexicans, Central Americans, Dominicans, South Americans and "Others", the protective effect of foreign birth diminished progressively across the educational range. Only for Puerto Ricans was there no nativity advantage for the foreign born, although small numbers of foreign born Cubans limited precision of estimates for that group. Conclusions Using flexible Bayesian regression models with random effects allowed us to estimate absolute risks without strong modeling assumptions. Risk comparisons for any sub-groups at any exposure level were simple to calculate. Shrinkage of posterior estimates through the use of random

  12. A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model of preterm birth risk among US Hispanic subgroups in relation to maternal nativity and education.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, Jay S; MacLehose, Richard F; Torrone, Elizabeth A; Savitz, David A

    2011-04-19

    Previous research has documented heterogeneity in the effects of maternal education on adverse birth outcomes by nativity and Hispanic subgroup in the United States. In this article, we considered the risk of preterm birth (PTB) using 9 years of vital statistics birth data from New York City. We employed finer categorizations of exposure than used previously and estimated the risk dose-response across the range of education by nativity and ethnicity. Using Bayesian random effects logistic regression models with restricted quadratic spline terms for years of completed maternal education, we calculated and plotted the estimated posterior probabilities of PTB (gestational age < 37 weeks) for each year of education by ethnic and nativity subgroups adjusted for only maternal age, as well as with more extensive covariate adjustments. We then estimated the posterior risk difference between native and foreign born mothers by ethnicity over the continuous range of education exposures. The risk of PTB varied substantially by education, nativity and ethnicity. Native born groups showed higher absolute risk of PTB and declining risk associated with higher levels of education beyond about 10 years, as did foreign-born Puerto Ricans. For most other foreign born groups, however, risk of PTB was flatter across the education range. For Mexicans, Central Americans, Dominicans, South Americans and "Others", the protective effect of foreign birth diminished progressively across the educational range. Only for Puerto Ricans was there no nativity advantage for the foreign born, although small numbers of foreign born Cubans limited precision of estimates for that group. Using flexible Bayesian regression models with random effects allowed us to estimate absolute risks without strong modeling assumptions. Risk comparisons for any sub-groups at any exposure level were simple to calculate. Shrinkage of posterior estimates through the use of random effects allowed for finer categorization of

  13. Validation of the absolute renal risk of dialysis/death in adults with IgA nephropathy secondary to Henoch-Schönlein purpura: a monocentric cohort study.

    PubMed

    Mohey, Hesham; Laurent, Blandine; Mariat, Christophe; Berthoux, Francois

    2013-08-01

    We established earlier the absolute renal risk (ARR) of dialysis/death (D/D) in primary IgA nephropathy (IgAN) which permitted accurate prospective prediction of final prognosis. This ARR was based on the potential presence at initial diagnosis of three major, independent, and equipotent risk factors such as hypertension, quantitative proteinuria≥1 g per day, and severe pathological lesions appreciated by our local classification scoring≥8 (range 0-20). We studied the validity of this ARR concept in secondary IgAN to predict future outcome and focused on Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP) nephritis. Our cohort of adults IgAN concerned 1064 patients with 101 secondary IgAN and was focused on 74 HSP (59 men) with a mean age of 38.6 at initial diagnosis and a mean follow-up of 11.8 years. Three major risk factors: hypertension, proteinuria≥1 g/d, and severe pathological lesions appreciated by our global optical score≥8 (GOS integrated all elementary histological lesions), were studied at biopsy-proven diagnosis and their presence defined the ARR scoring: 0 for none present, 3 for all present, 1 or 2 for the presence of any 1 or 2 risk factors. The primary end-point was composite with occurrence of dialysis or death before (D/D). We used classical statistics and both time-dependent Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival curve methods. The cumulative rate of D/D at 10 and 20 years post-onset was respectively 0 and 14% for ARR=0 (23 patients); 10 and 23% for ARR=1 (N=19); 27 and 33% for ARR=2 (N=24); and 81 and 100% (before 20 y) in the 8 patients with ARR=3 (P=0.0007). Prediction at time of diagnosis (time zero) of 10y cumulative rate of D/D event was 0% for ARR=0, 10% for ARR=1, 33% for ARR=2, and 100% by 8.5y for ARR=3 (P=0.0003) in this adequately treated cohort. This study clearly validates the Absolute Renal Risk of Dialysis/Death concept in a new cohort of HSP-IgAN with utility to individual management and in future clinical trials.

  14. A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

    PubMed

    Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

    2018-01-01

    Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

  16. Methods for estimation of radiation risk in epidemiological studies accounting for classical and Berkson errors in doses.

    PubMed

    Kukush, Alexander; Shklyar, Sergiy; Masiuk, Sergii; Likhtarov, Illya; Kovgan, Lina; Carroll, Raymond J; Bouville, Andre

    2011-02-16

    With a binary response Y, the dose-response model under consideration is logistic in flavor with pr(Y=1 | D) = R (1+R)(-1), R = λ(0) + EAR D, where λ(0) is the baseline incidence rate and EAR is the excess absolute risk per gray. The calculated thyroid dose of a person i is expressed as Dimes=fiQi(mes)/Mi(mes). Here, Qi(mes) is the measured content of radioiodine in the thyroid gland of person i at time t(mes), Mi(mes) is the estimate of the thyroid mass, and f(i) is the normalizing multiplier. The Q(i) and M(i) are measured with multiplicative errors Vi(Q) and ViM, so that Qi(mes)=Qi(tr)Vi(Q) (this is classical measurement error model) and Mi(tr)=Mi(mes)Vi(M) (this is Berkson measurement error model). Here, Qi(tr) is the true content of radioactivity in the thyroid gland, and Mi(tr) is the true value of the thyroid mass. The error in f(i) is much smaller than the errors in ( Qi(mes), Mi(mes)) and ignored in the analysis. By means of Parametric Full Maximum Likelihood and Regression Calibration (under the assumption that the data set of true doses has lognormal distribution), Nonparametric Full Maximum Likelihood, Nonparametric Regression Calibration, and by properly tuned SIMEX method we study the influence of measurement errors in thyroid dose on the estimates of λ(0) and EAR. The simulation study is presented based on a real sample from the epidemiological studies. The doses were reconstructed in the framework of the Ukrainian-American project on the investigation of Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine, and the underlying subpolulation was artificially enlarged in order to increase the statistical power. The true risk parameters were given by the values to earlier epidemiological studies, and then the binary response was simulated according to the dose-response model.

  17. Assessing and Refining Myocardial Infarction Risk Estimation among Patients with Human Immunodeficiency Virus

    PubMed Central

    Feinstein, Matthew J.; Nance, Robin M.; Drozd, Daniel R.; Ning, Hongyan; Delaney, Joseph A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Budoff, Matthew J.; Mathews, William C.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Saag, Michael S.; Eron, Joseph J.; Moore, Richard D.; Achenbach, Chad J.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Crane, Heidi M.

    2017-01-01

    Importance Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) have improved longevity but are at elevated risk for myocardial infarction (MI) due to common MI risk factors and HIV-specific factors. Despite these elevated MI rates, optimal methods to predict MI risks for HIV-infected persons remain unclear. Objective To determine the extent to which existing and de novo estimation tools predict MI in a multi-center HIV cohort with rigorous MI adjudication. Design We evaluated the performance of standard-of-care and two new data-derived MI risk estimation models in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) multi-center prospective clinical cohort. The new risk estimation models were validated in a cohort separate from the derivation cohort. Setting Clinical sites across the U.S. where HIV-infected adults receive medical care in inpatient and outpatient settings. Participants HIV-infected adults receiving care anytime since 1995 at 5 CNICS sites where MIs were adjudicated (N=19829). Exposures Common cardiovascular risk factors, HIV viral load, CD4 count, and medication use were used to calculate predicted event rates. Main Outcome and Measures Observed MI rates over the course of follow-up, scaled to 10 years using an observed prime approach to account for dropout and loss to follow-up prior to 10 years. Results MI rates were higher among blacks, older participants, and participants who were not virally suppressed. The 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), which predict composite rates of MI and stroke, adequately discriminated MI risk (Harrell’s C Statistic = 0.75). Two data-derived models incorporating HIV-specific covariates exhibited weak calibration in a validation sample and did not discriminate risk any better (Harrell’s C Statistic = 0.72 and 0.73) than the PCEs. The PCEs were moderately calibrated in CNICS but predicted consistently lower than observed prime rates of MI. The PCEs

  18. Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

    PubMed

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

    2010-10-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

  19. Ionizing radiation and genetic risks. XIII. Summary and synthesis of papers VI to XII and estimates of genetic risks in the year 2000.

    PubMed

    Sankaranarayanan, K; Chakraborty, R

    2000-10-16

    This paper recapitulates the advances in the field of genetic risk estimation that have occurred during the past decade and using them as a basis, presents revised estimates of genetic risks of exposure to radiation. The advances include: (i) an upward revision of the estimates of incidence for Mendelian diseases (2.4% now versus 1.25% in 1993); (ii) the introduction of a conceptual change for calculating doubling doses; (iii) the elaboration of methods to estimate the mutation component (i.e. the relative increase in disease frequency per unit relative increase in mutation rate) and the use of the estimates obtained through these methods for assessing the impact of induced mutations on the incidence of Mendelian and chronic multifactorial diseases; (iv) the introduction of an additional factor called the "potential recoverability correction factor" in the risk equation to bridge the gap between radiation-induced mutations that have been recovered in mice and the risk of radiation-inducible genetic disease in human live births and (v) the introduction of the concept that the adverse effects of radiation-induced genetic damage are likely to be manifest predominantly as multi-system developmental abnormalities in the progeny. For all classes of genetic disease (except congenital abnormalities), the estimates of risk have been obtained using a doubling dose of 1 Gy. For a population exposed to low LET, chronic/ low dose irradiation, the current estimates for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates per million live born progeny per Gy of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and X-linked diseases, approximately 750-1500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero and chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250-1200 cases. For congenital abnormalities, the estimate is approximately 2000 cases and is based on mouse data on developmental abnormalities. The total risk per Gy is of the order of approximately 3000-4700 cases which represent

  20. Childhood CT scans and cancer risk: impact of predisposing factors for cancer on the risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Journy, N; Roué, T; Cardis, E; Le Pointe, H Ducou; Brisse, H; Chateil, J-F; Laurier, D; Bernier, M-O

    2016-03-01

    To investigate the role of cancer predisposing factors (PFs) on the associations between paediatric computed tomography (CT) scan exposures and subsequent risk of central nervous system (CNS) tumours and leukaemia. A cohort of children who underwent a CT scan in 2000-2010 in 23 French radiology departments was linked with the national childhood cancers registry and national vital status registry; information on PFs was retrieved through hospital discharge databases. In children without PF, hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% CI 0.99-1.10) for CNS tumours (15 cases) and 1.16 (95% CI 0.77-1.27) for leukaemia (12 cases) were estimated for each 10 mGy increment in CT x-rays organ doses. These estimates were similar to those obtained in the whole cohort. In children with PFs, no positive dose-risk association was observed, possibly related to earlier non-cancer mortality in this group. Our results suggest a modifying effect of PFs on CT-related cancer risks, but need to be confirmed by longer follow-up and other studies.

  1. Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine and the Framingham Risk Equations in Estimating Cardiovascular Disease in the EPIC- Norfolk Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Simmons, Rebecca K.; Coleman, Ruth L.; Price, Hermione C.; Holman, Rury R.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Griffin, Simon J.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine (version 3) and the Framingham risk equations (2008) in estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in three populations: 1) individuals with known diabetes; 2) individuals with nondiabetic hyperglycemia, defined as A1C ≥6.0%; and 3) individuals with normoglycemia defined as A1C <6.0%. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This was a population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40–79 years recruited from U.K. general practices attended a health examination (1993–1998) and were followed for CVD events/death until April 2007. CVD risk estimates were calculated for 10,137 individuals. RESULTS Over 10.1 years, there were 69 CVD events in the diabetes group (25.4%), 160 in the hyperglycemia group (17.7%), and 732 in the normoglycemia group (8.2%). Estimated CVD 10-year risk in the diabetes group was 33 and 37% using the UKPDS and Framingham equations, respectively. In the hyperglycemia group, estimated CVD risks were 31 and 22%, respectively, and for the normoglycemia group risks were 20 and 14%, respectively. There were no significant differences in the ability of the risk equations to discriminate between individuals at different risk of CVD events in each subgroup; both equations overestimated CVD risk. The Framingham equations performed better in the hyperglycemia and normoglycemia groups as they did not overestimate risk as much as the UKPDS Risk Engine, and they classified more participants correctly. CONCLUSIONS Both the UKPDS Risk Engine and Framingham risk equations were moderately effective at ranking individuals and are therefore suitable for resource prioritization. However, both overestimated true risk, which is important when one is using scores to communicate prognostic information to individuals. PMID:19114615

  2. Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Schonberg, Mara A; Li, Vicky W; Eliassen, A Heather; Davis, Roger B; LaCroix, Andrea Z; McCarthy, Ellen P; Rosner, Bernard A; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Hankinson, Susan E; Marcantonio, Edward R; Ngo, Long H

    2016-12-01

    Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses' Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors) and 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency) and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women's Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Within 5 years, 1.8 % of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0 % in WHI-ES, p = 0.02), and 6.6 % experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2 % in WHI-ES, p < 0.001). Using a model selection procedure which incorporated the Akaike Information Criterion, c-statistic, statistical significance, and clinical judgement, our final model included 9 breast cancer risk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model's c-statistic was 0.61 (95 % CI [0.60-0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55-0.58) in WHI-ES. On average, our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88-0.97]). We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women's individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk.

  3. Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, p<0.001). Using a model selection procedure which incorporated the Akaike Information Criterion, c-statistic, statistical significance, and clinical judgement, our final model included 9 breast cancer risk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

  4. Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ostrom, Chris L.

    2017-01-01

    A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

  5. Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ostrom, C.

    2017-01-01

    A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

  6. Relationship between estimated cardiovascular disease risk and insulin resistance in a black African population living with HIV: a cross-sectional study from Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Noumegni, Steve Raoul; Bigna, Jean Joel; Ama Moor Epse Nkegoum, Vicky Jocelyne; Nansseu, Jobert Richie; Assah, Felix K; Jingi, Ahmadou Musa; Guewo-Fokeng, Magellan; Leumi, Steve; Katte, Jean-Claude; Dehayem, Mesmin Y; Mfeukeu Kuate, Liliane; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Sobngwi, Eugene

    2017-08-11

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and metabolic diseases are growing concerns among patients with HIV infection as a consequence of the improving survival of this population. We aimed to assess the relationship between CVD risk and insulin resistance in a group of black African individuals with HIV infection. This cross-sectional study involved patients with HIV infection aged 30-74 years and followed up at the Yaoundé Central Hospital, Cameroon. Absolute CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham and the DAD CVD risk equations while the HOMA-IR index was used to assess insulin resistance (index ≥2.1). A total of 452 patients (361 women; 80%) were screened. The mean age was 44.4 years and most of the respondents were on antiretroviral therapy (88.5%). The median 5-year cardiovascular risk was 0.7% (25th-75th percentiles: 0.2-2.0) and 0.6% (0.3-1.3) according to the Framingham and DAD equations respectively. Of all participants, 47.3% were insulin resistant. The Framingham equation derived absolute CVD risk was significantly associated with insulin resistance; while no linear association was found using the DAD equation. The relationship between cardiovascular risk and insulin resistance in black African patients with HIV infection seems to depend on the cardiovascular risk equation used. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Estimation and Selection via Absolute Penalized Convex Minimization And Its Multistage Adaptive Applications

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Jian; Zhang, Cun-Hui

    2013-01-01

    The ℓ1-penalized method, or the Lasso, has emerged as an important tool for the analysis of large data sets. Many important results have been obtained for the Lasso in linear regression which have led to a deeper understanding of high-dimensional statistical problems. In this article, we consider a class of weighted ℓ1-penalized estimators for convex loss functions of a general form, including the generalized linear models. We study the estimation, prediction, selection and sparsity properties of the weighted ℓ1-penalized estimator in sparse, high-dimensional settings where the number of predictors p can be much larger than the sample size n. Adaptive Lasso is considered as a special case. A multistage method is developed to approximate concave regularized estimation by applying an adaptive Lasso recursively. We provide prediction and estimation oracle inequalities for single- and multi-stage estimators, a general selection consistency theorem, and an upper bound for the dimension of the Lasso estimator. Important models including the linear regression, logistic regression and log-linear models are used throughout to illustrate the applications of the general results. PMID:24348100

  8. [Ionizing and non-ionizing radiation (comparative risk estimations)].

    PubMed

    Grigor'ev, Iu G

    2012-01-01

    The population has widely used mobile communication for already more than 15 years. It is important to note that the use of mobile communication has sharply changed the conditions of daily exposure of the population to EME We expose our brain daily for the first time in the entire civilization. The mobile phone is an open and uncontrollable source of electromagnetic radiation. The comparative risk estimation for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation was carried out taking into account the real conditions of influence. Comparison of risks for the population of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation leads us to a conclusion that EMF RF exposure in conditions of wide use of mobile communication is potentially more harmful than ionizing radiation influence.

  9. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based onmore » this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.« less

  10. Effect of Arrangement of Stick Figures on Estimates of Proportion in Risk Graphics

    PubMed Central

    Ancker, Jessica S.; Weber, Elke U.; Kukafka, Rita

    2017-01-01

    Background Health risks are sometimes illustrated with stick figures, with a certain proportion colored to indicate they are affected by the disease. Perception of these graphics may be affected by whether the affected stick figures are scattered randomly throughout the group or arranged in a block. Objective To assess the effects of stick-figure arrangement on first impressions of estimates of proportion, under a 10-s deadline. Design Questionnaire. Participants and Setting Respondents recruited online (n = 100) or in waiting rooms at an urban hospital (n = 65). Intervention Participants were asked to estimate the proportion represented in 6 unlabeled graphics, half randomly arranged and half sequentially arranged. Measurements Estimated proportions. Results Although average estimates were fairly good, the variability of estimates was high. Overestimates of random graphics were larger than overestimates of sequential ones, except when the proportion was near 50%; variability was also higher with random graphics. Although the average inaccuracy was modest, it was large enough that more than one quarter of respondents confused 2 graphics depicting proportions that differed by 11 percentage points. Low numeracy and educational level were associated with inaccuracy. Limitations Participants estimated proportions but did not report perceived risk. Conclusions Randomly arranged arrays of stick figures should be used with care because viewers’ ability to estimate the proportion in these graphics is so poor that moderate differences between risks may not be visible. In addition, random arrangements may create an initial impression that proportions, especially large ones, are larger than they are. PMID:20671209

  11. Wheat productivity estimates using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nalepka, R. F.; Colwell, J. E. (Principal Investigator); Rice, D. P.; Bresnahan, P. A.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Large area LANDSAT yield estimates were generated. These results were compared with estimates computed using a meteorological yield model (CCEA). Both of these estimates were compared with Kansas Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (KCLRS) estimates of yield, in an attempt to assess the relative and absolute accuracy of the LANDSAT and CCEA estimates. Results were inconclusive. A large area direct wheat prediction procedure was implemented. Initial results have produced a wheat production estimate comparable with the KCLRS estimate.

  12. Estimating the asbestos-related lung cancer burden from mesothelioma mortality

    PubMed Central

    McCormack, V; Peto, J; Byrnes, G; Straif, K; Boffetta, P

    2012-01-01

    Background: Quantifying the asbestos-related lung cancer burden is difficult in the presence of this disease's multiple causes. We explore two methods to estimate this burden using mesothelioma deaths as a proxy for asbestos exposure. Methods: From the follow-up of 55 asbestos cohorts, we estimated ratios of (i) absolute number of asbestos-related lung cancers to mesothelioma deaths; (ii) excess lung cancer relative risk (%) to mesothelioma mortality per 1000 non-asbestos-related deaths. Results: Ratios varied by asbestos type; there were a mean 0.7 (95% confidence interval 0.5, 1.0) asbestos-related lung cancers per mesothelioma death in crocidolite cohorts (n=6 estimates), 6.1 (3.6, 10.5) in chrysotile (n=16), 4.0 (2.8, 5.9) in amosite (n=4) and 1.9 (1.4, 2.6) in mixed asbestos fibre cohorts (n=31). In a population with 2 mesothelioma deaths per 1000 deaths at ages 40–84 years (e.g., US men), the estimated lung cancer population attributable fraction due to mixed asbestos was estimated to be 4.0%. Conclusion: All types of asbestos fibres kill at least twice as many people through lung cancer than through mesothelioma, except for crocidolite. For chrysotile, widely consumed today, asbestos-related lung cancers cannot be robustly estimated from few mesothelioma deaths and the latter cannot be used to infer no excess risk of lung or other cancers. PMID:22233924

  13. Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Monsalve Torra, Ana; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Marín-Alonso, Oscar; Triana Palencia, Eddy

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Using hypothetical data to assess the effect of numerical format and context on the perception of coronary heart disease risk.

    PubMed

    Fair, Anna K I; Murray, Peter G; Thomas, Anna; Cobain, Mark R

    2008-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that responses to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk estimates are heightened by use of ratio formats, peer group risk information, and long time frames. Cross-sectional, experimental, between-factors design. Three regions in England. A total of 740 men and women ages 30 to 70 years. Risk perception, "emotional" response, intention to change lifestyle. Logistic regression was used to investigate the impact of numerical format (ratio vs. percentage), peer group risk (personal vs. peer group), and time frame (10-year vs. 30-year) on risk perception. Analysis of variance was used to investigate the impact of these factors on emotional response and intention to change lifestyle questions. Higher perceived risk was observed when risk was presented as a ratio (p < .001) and when it was supplemented with peer group risk estimates (p = .006). Emotional responses to risk information were heightened when risk was presented as a ratio (p = .0004) and supplemented with peer group risk estimates (p = .002). Presentation with ratios also increased intention to make lifestyle changes (p = .047). Perception of CHD risk information is affected by the presentation format. Where absolute risks may appear low, use of ratios and supplementation of personal risk estimates with peer group risk may increase risk perception.

  15. Linking Comparisons of Absolute Gravimeters: A Proof of Concept for a new Global Absolute Gravity Reference System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wziontek, H.; Palinkas, V.; Falk, R.; Vaľko, M.

    2016-12-01

    Since decades, absolute gravimeters are compared on a regular basis on an international level, starting at the International Bureau for Weights and Measures (BIPM) in 1981. Usually, these comparisons are based on constant reference values deduced from all accepted measurements acquired during the comparison period. Temporal changes between comparison epochs are usually not considered. Resolution No. 2, adopted by IAG during the IUGG General Assembly in Prague 2015, initiates the establishment of a Global Absolute Gravity Reference System based on key comparisons of absolute gravimeters (AG) under the International Committee for Weights and Measures (CIPM) in order to establish a common level in the microGal range. A stable and unique reference frame can only be achieved, if different AG are taking part in different kind of comparisons. Systematic deviations between the respective comparison reference values can be detected, if the AG can be considered stable over time. The continuous operation of superconducting gravimeters (SG) on selected stations further supports the temporal link of comparison reference values by establishing a reference function over time. By a homogenous reprocessing of different comparison epochs and including AG and SG time series at selected stations, links between several comparisons will be established and temporal comparison reference functions will be derived. By this, comparisons on a regional level can be traced to back to the level of key comparisons, providing a reference for other absolute gravimeters. It will be proved and discussed, how such a concept can be used to support the future absolute gravity reference system.

  16. Estimation of absolute solvent and solvation shell entropies via permutation reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhard, Friedemann; Grubmüller, Helmut

    2007-01-01

    Despite its prominent contribution to the free energy of solvated macromolecules such as proteins or DNA, and although principally contained within molecular dynamics simulations, the entropy of the solvation shell is inaccessible to straightforward application of established entropy estimation methods. The complication is twofold. First, the configurational space density of such systems is too complex for a sufficiently accurate fit. Second, and in contrast to the internal macromolecular dynamics, the configurational space volume explored by the diffusive motion of the solvent molecules is too large to be exhaustively sampled by current simulation techniques. Here, we develop a method to overcome the second problem and to significantly alleviate the first one. We propose to exploit the permutation symmetry of the solvent by transforming the trajectory in a way that renders established estimation methods applicable, such as the quasiharmonic approximation or principal component analysis. Our permutation-reduced approach involves a combinatorial problem, which is solved through its equivalence with the linear assignment problem, for which O(N3) methods exist. From test simulations of dense Lennard-Jones gases, enhanced convergence and improved entropy estimates are obtained. Moreover, our approach renders diffusive systems accessible to improved fit functions.

  17. Estimation of hepatitis C virus infections resulting from vertical transmission in Egypt.

    PubMed

    Benova, Lenka; Awad, Susanne F; Miller, F DeWolfe; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

    2015-03-01

    Despite having the highest hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence in the world, the ongoing level of HCV incidence in Egypt and its drivers are poorly understood. Whereas HCV mother-to-child infection is a well-established transmission route, there are no estimates of HCV infections resulting from vertical transmission for any country, including Egypt. The aim of this study was to estimate the absolute number of new HCV infections resulting from vertical transmission in Egypt. We developed a conceptual framework of HCV vertical transmission, expressed in terms of a mathematical model and based on maternal HCV antibody and viremia. The mathematical model estimated the number of HCV vertical infections nationally and for six subnational areas. Applying two vertical transmission risk estimates to the 2008 Egyptian birth cohort, we estimated that between 3,080 and 5,167 HCV infections resulted from vertical transmission among children born in 2008. HCV vertical transmission may account for half of incident cases in the <5-year age group. Disproportionately higher proportions of vertical infections were estimated in Lower Rural and Upper Rural subnational areas. This geographical clustering was a result of higher-area-level HCV prevalence among women and higher fertility rates. Vertical transmission is one of the primary HCV infection routes among children<5 years in Egypt. The absolute number of vertical transmissions and the young age at infection highlight a public health concern. These findings also emphasize the need to quantify the relative contributions of other transmission routes to HCV incidence in Egypt. © 2014 The Authors. Hepatology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  18. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottledmore » mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.« less

  19. Cumulative impact of common genetic variants and other risk factors on colorectal cancer risk in 42,103 individuals

    PubMed Central

    Dunlop, Malcolm G.; Tenesa, Albert; Farrington, Susan M.; Ballereau, Stephane; Brewster, David H.; Pharoah, Paul DP.; Schafmayer, Clemens; Hampe, Jochen; Völzke, Henry; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael; Brenner, Hermann; von Holst, Susanna; Picelli, Simone; Lindblom, Annika; Jenkins, Mark A.; Hopper, John L.; Casey, Graham; Duggan, David; Newcomb, Polly; Abulí, Anna; Bessa, Xavier; Ruiz-Ponte, Clara; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Niittymäki, Iina; Tuupanen, Sari; Karhu, Auli; Aaltonen, Lauri; Zanke, Brent W.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Gallinger, Steven; Barclay, Ella; Martin, Lynn; Gorman, Maggie; Carvajal-Carmona, Luis; Walther, Axel; Kerr, David; Lubbe, Steven; Broderick, Peter; Chandler, Ian; Pittman, Alan; Penegar, Steven; Campbell, Harry; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data. Design Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks. Results Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk. Conclusion We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it

  20. A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

    PubMed

    Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

    2011-01-01

    Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

  1. Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates: a validation study of an integrated-actuarial risk assessment instrument.

    PubMed

    Mills, Jeremy F; Gray, Andrew L

    2013-11-01

    This study is an initial validation study of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates instrument (TTV), a violence risk appraisal instrument designed to support an integrated-actuarial approach to violence risk assessment. The TTV was scored retrospectively from file information on a sample of violent offenders. Construct validity was examined by comparing the TTV with instruments that have shown utility to predict violence that were prospectively scored: The Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form (LCSF). Predictive validity was examined through a long-term follow-up of 12.4 years with a sample of 78 incarcerated offenders. Results show the TTV to be highly correlated with the HCR-20 and LCSF. The base rate for violence over the follow-up period was 47.4%, and the TTV was equally predictive of violent recidivism relative to the HCR-20 and LCSF. Discussion centers on the advantages of an integrated-actuarial approach to the assessment of violence risk.

  2. Initial Characterization of Unequal-Length, Low-Background Proportional Counters for Absolute Gas-Counting Applications

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mace, Emily K.; Aalseth, Craig E.; Bonicalzi, Ricco

    Abstract. Characterization of two sets of custom unequal length proportional counters is underway at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These detectors will be used in measurements to determine the absolute activity concentration of gaseous radionuclides (e.g., 37Ar). A set of three detectors has been fabricated based on previous PNNL ultra-low-background proportional counters (ULBPC) designs and now operate in PNNL’s shallow underground counting laboratory. A second set of four counters has also been fabricated using clean assembly of OFHC copper components for use in an above-ground counting laboratory. Characterization of both sets of detectors is underway with measurements of background rates,more » gas gain, energy resolution, and shielding considerations. These results will be presented along with uncertainty estimates of future absolute gas counting measurements.« less

  3. Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Johnson, K.; Fargione, J.; Morefield, P.

    2017-12-01

    Past attempts to estimate flood risk across the USA either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30m resolution model of the entire conterminous US (CONUS) with realistic flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. Socio-economic data of commensurate resolution are combined with these flood depths to estimate current and future flood risk. Future population and land-use projections from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are employed to indicate how flood risk might change through the 21st Century, while present-day estimates utilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Structure Inventory and a USEPA map of population distribution. Our data show that the total CONUS population currently exposed to serious flooding is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher than previous estimates; with nearly 41 million Americans living within the so-called 1 in 100-year (1% annual probability) floodplain, compared to only 13 million according to FEMA flood maps. Moreover, socio-economic change alone leads to significant future increases in flood exposure and risk, even before climate change impacts are accounted for. The share of the population living on the 1 in 100-year floodplain is projected to increase from 13.3% in the present-day to 15.6 - 15.8% in 2050 and 16.4 - 16.8% in 2100. The area of developed land within this floodplain, currently at 150,000 km2, is likely to increase by 37 - 72% in 2100 based on the scenarios selected. 5.5 trillion worth of assets currently lie on the 1% floodplain; we project that by 2100 this number will exceed 10 trillion. With this detailed spatial information on present-day flood risk, federal and state agencies can take appropriate action to mitigate losses. Use of USEPA population and land-use projections mean that particular attention can be

  4. Investigating Absolute Value: A Real World Application

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kidd, Margaret; Pagni, David

    2009-01-01

    Making connections between various representations is important in mathematics. In this article, the authors discuss the numeric, algebraic, and graphical representations of sums of absolute values of linear functions. The initial explanations are accessible to all students who have experience graphing and who understand that absolute value simply…

  5. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  6. Stimulus probability effects in absolute identification.

    PubMed

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-05-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of presentation probability on both proportion correct and response times. The effects were moderated by the ubiquitous stimulus position effect. The accuracy and response time data were predicted by an exemplar-based model of perceptual cognition (Kent & Lamberts, 2005). The bow in discriminability was also attenuated when presentation probability for middle items was relatively high, an effect that will constrain future model development. The study provides evidence for item-specific learning in absolute identification. Implications for other theories of absolute identification are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probabi...

  8. Absolute Bioavailability of Osimertinib in Healthy Adults.

    PubMed

    Vishwanathan, Karthick; So, Karen; Thomas, Karen; Bramley, Alex; English, Stephen; Collier, Jo

    2018-04-23

    Osimertinib is a third-generation, central nervous system-active, epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) selective for EGFR-TKI sensitizing and T790M resistance mutations. This phase 1, open-label study (NCT02491944) investigated absolute bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) of oral and intravenous (IV) osimertinib. Ten healthy subjects (21-61 years) received a single oral 80-mg dose concomitantly with a 100 μg (containing 1 μCi) IV microtracer dose of [ 14 C]osimertinib. Oral and IV PK were determined simultaneously for osimertinib and its active metabolites, AZ5104 and AZ7550. High-performance liquid chromatography and accelerator mass spectrometry were used to characterize IV dose PK. Geometric mean absolute oral bioavailability of osimertinib was 69.8% (90% confidence interval, 66.7, 72.9). Oral osimertinib was slowly absorbed (median time to maximum plasma concentration [t max ] 7.0 hours). Following t max , plasma concentrations fell in an apparent monophasic manner. IV clearance and volume of distribution were 16.8 L/h and 1285 L, respectively. Arithmetic mean elimination half-life estimates were 59.7, 52.6, and 72.6 hours for osimertinib, AZ5104, and AZ7550, respectively (oral dosing), and 54.9, 68.4, and 99.7 hours for [ 14 C]osimertinib, [ 14 C]AZ5104, and [ 14 C]AZ7550, respectively (IV dosing). Oral osimertinib was well absorbed. Simultaneous IV and oral PK analysis proved useful for complete understanding of osimertinib PK and showed that the first-pass effect was minimal for osimertinib. © 2018, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

  9. Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk.

    PubMed

    Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2006-07-01

    An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.

  10. Challenges in Obtaining Estimates of the Risk of Tuberculosis Infection During Overseas Deployment.

    PubMed

    Mancuso, James D; Geurts, Mia

    2015-12-01

    Estimates of the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection resulting from overseas deployment among U.S. military service members have varied widely, and have been plagued by methodological problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of TB infection in the U.S. military resulting from deployment. Three populations were examined: 1) a unit of 2,228 soldiers redeploying from Iraq in 2008, 2) a cohort of 1,978 soldiers followed up over 5 years after basic training at Fort Jackson in 2009, and 3) 6,062 participants in the 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The risk of TB infection in the deployed population was low-0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-2.3%)-and was similar to the non-deployed population. The prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in the U.S. population was not significantly different among deployed and non-deployed veterans and those with no military service. The limitations of these retrospective studies highlight the challenge in obtaining valid estimates of risk using retrospective data and the need for a more definitive study. Similar to civilian long-term travelers, risks for TB infection during deployment are focal in nature, and testing should be targeted to only those at increased risk. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  11. Absolute Plate Velocities from Seismic Anisotropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreemer, Corné; Zheng, Lin; Gordon, Richard

    2015-04-01

    The orientation of seismic anisotropy inferred beneath plate interiors may provide a means to estimate the motions of the plate relative to the sub-asthenospheric mantle. Here we analyze two global sets of shear-wave splitting data, that of Kreemer [2009] and an updated and expanded data set, to estimate plate motions and to better understand the dispersion of the data, correlations in the errors, and their relation to plate speed. We also explore the effect of using geologically current plate velocities (i.e., the MORVEL set of angular velocities [DeMets et al. 2010]) compared with geodetically current plate velocities (i.e., the GSRM v1.2 angular velocities [Kreemer et al. 2014]). We demonstrate that the errors in plate motion azimuths inferred from shear-wave splitting beneath any one tectonic plate are correlated with the errors of other azimuths from the same plate. To account for these correlations, we adopt a two-tier analysis: First, find the pole of rotation and confidence limits for each plate individually. Second, solve for the best fit to these poles while constraining relative plate angular velocities to consistency with the MORVEL relative plate angular velocities. The SKS-MORVEL absolute plate angular velocities (based on the Kreemer [2009] data set) are determined from the poles from eight plates weighted proportionally to the root-mean-square velocity of each plate. SKS-MORVEL indicates that eight plates (Amur, Antarctica, Caribbean, Eurasia, Lwandle, Somalia, Sundaland, and Yangtze) have angular velocities that differ insignificantly from zero. The net rotation of the lithosphere is 0.25±0.11° Ma-1 (95% confidence limits) right-handed about 57.1°S, 68.6°E. The within-plate dispersion of seismic anisotropy for oceanic lithosphere (σ=19.2° ) differs insignificantly from that for continental lithosphere (σ=21.6° ). The between-plate dispersion, however, is significantly smaller for oceanic lithosphere (σ=7.4° ) than for continental

  12. A Conceptual Approach to Absolute Value Equations and Inequalities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ellis, Mark W.; Bryson, Janet L.

    2011-01-01

    The absolute value learning objective in high school mathematics requires students to solve far more complex absolute value equations and inequalities. When absolute value problems become more complex, students often do not have sufficient conceptual understanding to make any sense of what is happening mathematically. The authors suggest that the…

  13. Prenatal Valproate Exposure and Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders and Childhood Autism

    PubMed Central

    Christensen, Jakob; Grønborg, Therese Koops; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Schendel, Diana; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    Importance Valproate is used for the treatment of epilepsy and other neuropsychological disorders and may be the only treatment option for women of childbearing potential. However, prenatal exposure to valproate may increase the risk of autism. Objective To determine whether prenatal exposure to valproate is associated with an increased risk of autism in offspring. Design, Setting, and Participants Population-based study of all children born alive in Denmark from 1996 to 2006. National registers were used to identify children exposed to valproate during pregnancy and diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (childhood autism [autistic disorder], Asperger syndrome, atypical autism, and other or unspecified pervasive developmental disorders). We analyzed the risks associated with all autism spectrum disorders as well as childhood autism. Data were analyzed by Cox regression adjusting for potential confounders (maternal age at conception, paternal age at conception, parental psychiatric history, gestational age, birth weight, sex, congenital malformations, and parity). Children were followed up from birth until the day of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2010, whichever came first. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute risk (cumulative incidence) and the hazard ratio (HR) of autism spectrum disorder and childhood autism in children after exposure to valproate in pregnancy. Results Of 655 615 children born from 1996 through 2006, 5437 were identified with autism spectrum disorder, including 2067 with childhood autism. The mean age of the children at end of follow-up was 8.84 years (range, 4-14; median, 8.85). The estimated absolute risk after 14 years of follow-up was 1.53% (95% CI, 1.47%- 1.58%) for autism spectrum disorder and 0.48% (95% CI, 0.46%-0.51%) for childhood autism. Overall, the 508 children exposed to valproate had an absolute risk of 4.42% (95% CI, 2.59%-7.46%) for autism spectrum disorder (adjusted HR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1

  14. Absolute pitch in a four-year-old boy with autism.

    PubMed

    Brenton, James N; Devries, Seth P; Barton, Christine; Minnich, Heike; Sokol, Deborah K

    2008-08-01

    Absolute pitch is the ability to identify the pitch of an isolated tone. We report on a 4-year-old boy with autism and absolute pitch, one of the youngest reported in the literature. Absolute pitch is thought to be attributable to a single gene, transmitted in an autosomal-dominant fashion. The association of absolute pitch with autism raises the speculation that this talent could be linked to a genetically distinct subset of children with autism. Further, the identification of absolute pitch in even young children with autism may lead to a lifelong skill.

  15. Cumulative radiation exposure and cancer risk estimation in children with heart disease.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Jason N; Hornik, Christoph P; Li, Jennifer S; Benjamin, Daniel K; Yoshizumi, Terry T; Reiman, Robert E; Frush, Donald P; Hill, Kevin D

    2014-07-08

    Children with heart disease are frequently exposed to imaging examinations that use ionizing radiation. Although radiation exposure is potentially carcinogenic, there are limited data on cumulative exposure and the associated cancer risk. We evaluated the cumulative effective dose of radiation from all radiation examinations to estimate the lifetime attributable risk of cancer in children with heart disease. Children ≤6 years of age who had previously undergone 1 of 7 primary surgical procedures for heart disease at a single institution between 2005 and 2010 were eligible for the study. Exposure to radiation-producing examinations was tabulated, and cumulative effective dose was calculated in millisieverts. These data were used to estimate lifetime attributable risk of cancer above baseline using the approach of the Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII. The cohort included 337 children exposed to 13 932 radiation examinations. Conventional radiographs represented 92% of examinations, whereas cardiac catheterization and computed tomography accounted for 81% of cumulative exposure. Overall median cumulative effective dose was 2.7 mSv (range, 0.1-76.9 mSv), and the associated lifetime attributable risk of cancer was 0.07% (range, 0.001%-6.5%). Median lifetime attributable risk of cancer ranged widely depending on surgical complexity (0.006%-1.6% for the 7 surgical cohorts) and was twice as high in females per unit exposure (0.04% versus 0.02% per 1-mSv effective dose for females versus males, respectively; P<0.001). Overall radiation exposures in children with heart disease are relatively low; however, select cohorts receive significant exposure. Cancer risk estimation highlights the need to limit radiation dose, particularly for high-exposure modalities. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  16. Absolute GPS Positioning Using Genetic Algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramillien, G.

    A new inverse approach for restoring the absolute coordinates of a ground -based station from three or four observed GPS pseudo-ranges is proposed. This stochastic method is based on simulations of natural evolution named genetic algorithms (GA). These iterative procedures provide fairly good and robust estimates of the absolute positions in the Earth's geocentric reference system. For comparison/validation, GA results are compared to the ones obtained using the classical linearized least-square scheme for the determination of the XYZ location proposed by Bancroft (1985) which is strongly limited by the number of available observations (i.e. here, the number of input pseudo-ranges must be four). The r.m.s. accuracy of the non -linear cost function reached by this latter method is typically ~10-4 m2 corresponding to ~300-500-m accuracies for each geocentric coordinate. However, GA can provide more acceptable solutions (r.m.s. errors < 10-5 m2), even when only three instantaneous pseudo-ranges are used, such as a lost of lock during a GPS survey. Tuned GA parameters used in different simulations are N=1000 starting individuals, as well as Pc=60-70% and Pm=30-40% for the crossover probability and mutation rate, respectively. Statistical tests on the ability of GA to recover acceptable coordinates in presence of important levels of noise are made simulating nearly 3000 random samples of erroneous pseudo-ranges. Here, two main sources of measurement errors are considered in the inversion: (1) typical satellite-clock errors and/or 300-metre variance atmospheric delays, and (2) Geometrical Dilution of Precision (GDOP) due to the particular GPS satellite configuration at the time of acquisition. Extracting valuable information and even from low-quality starting range observations, GA offer an interesting alternative for high -precision GPS positioning.

  17. Radiation-Induced Second Cancer Risk Estimates From Radionuclide Therapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarz, Bryan; Besemer, Abigail

    2017-09-01

    The use of radionuclide therapy in the clinical setting is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. There is an important need to understand the radiation-induced second cancer risk associated with these procedures. In this study the radiation-induced cancer risk in five radionuclide therapy patients was investigated. These patients underwent serial SPECT imaging scans following injection as part of a clinical trial testing the efficacy of a 131Iodine-labeled radiopharmaceutical. Using these datasets the committed absorbed doses to multiple sensitive structures were calculated using RAPID, which is a novel Monte Carlo-based 3D dosimetry platform developed for personalized dosimetry. The excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced cancer in these structures was then derived from these dose estimates following the recommendations set forth in the BEIR VII report. The radiation-induced leukemia ERR was highest among all sites considered reaching a maximum value of approximately 4.5. The radiation-induced cancer risk in the kidneys, liver and spleen ranged between 0.3 and 1.3. The lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were also calculated, which ranged from 30 to 1700 cancers per 100,000 persons and were highest for leukemia and the liver for both males and females followed by radiation-induced spleen and kidney cancer. The risks associated with radionuclide therapy are similar to the risk associated with external beam radiation therapy.

  18. Impact of a financial risk-sharing scheme on budget-impact estimations: a game-theoretic approach.

    PubMed

    Gavious, Arieh; Greenberg, Dan; Hammerman, Ariel; Segev, Ella

    2014-06-01

    As part of the process of updating the National List of Health Services in Israel, health plans (the 'payers') and manufacturers each provide estimates on the expected number of patients that will utilize a new drug. Currently, payers face major financial consequences when actual utilization is higher than the allocated budget. We suggest a risk-sharing model between the two stakeholders; if the actual number of patients exceeds the manufacturer's prediction, the manufacturer will reimburse the payers by a rebate rate of α from the deficit. In case of under-utilization, payers will refund the government at a rate of γ from the surplus budget. Our study objective was to identify the optimal early estimations of both 'players' prior to and after implementation of the risk-sharing scheme. Using a game-theoretic approach, in which both players' statements are considered simultaneously, we examined the impact of risk-sharing within a given range of rebate proportions, on players' early budget estimations. When increasing manufacturer's rebate α to be over 50 %, then manufacturers will announce a larger number, and health plans will announce a lower number of patients than they would without risk sharing, thus substantially decreasing the gap between their estimates. Increasing γ changes players' estimates only slightly. In reaction to applying a substantial risk-sharing rebate α on the manufacturer, both players are expected to adjust their budget estimates toward an optimal equilibrium. Increasing α is a better vehicle for reaching the desired equilibrium rather than increasing γ, as the manufacturer's rebate α substantially influences both players, whereas γ has little effect on the players behavior.

  19. Examining the effects of air pollution composition on within region differences in PM2.5 mortality risk estimates

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multi-city population-based epidemiological studies have observed significant heterogeneity in both the magnitude and direction of city-specific risk estimates, but tended to focus on regional differences in PM2.5 mortality risk estimates. Interpreting differences in risk estimat...

  20. The Absolute Spectrum Polarimeter (ASP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kogut, A. J.

    2010-01-01

    The Absolute Spectrum Polarimeter (ASP) is an Explorer-class mission to map the absolute intensity and linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background and diffuse astrophysical foregrounds over the full sky from 30 GHz to 5 THz. The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r much greater than 1O(raised to the power of { -3}) and Compton distortion y < 10 (raised to the power of{-6}). We describe the ASP instrument and mission architecture needed to detect the signature of an inflationary epoch in the early universe using only 4 semiconductor bolometers.

  1. The absolute disparity anomaly and the mechanism of relative disparities.

    PubMed

    Chopin, Adrien; Levi, Dennis; Knill, David; Bavelier, Daphne

    2016-06-01

    There has been a long-standing debate about the mechanisms underlying the perception of stereoscopic depth and the computation of the relative disparities that it relies on. Relative disparities between visual objects could be computed in two ways: (a) using the difference in the object's absolute disparities (Hypothesis 1) or (b) using relative disparities based on the differences in the monocular separations between objects (Hypothesis 2). To differentiate between these hypotheses, we measured stereoscopic discrimination thresholds for lines with different absolute and relative disparities. Participants were asked to judge the depth of two lines presented at the same distance from the fixation plane (absolute disparity) or the depth between two lines presented at different distances (relative disparity). We used a single stimulus method involving a unique memory component for both conditions, and no extraneous references were available. We also measured vergence noise using Nonius lines. Stereo thresholds were substantially worse for absolute disparities than for relative disparities, and the difference could not be explained by vergence noise. We attribute this difference to an absence of conscious readout of absolute disparities, termed the absolute disparity anomaly. We further show that the pattern of correlations between vergence noise and absolute and relative disparity acuities can be explained jointly by the existence of the absolute disparity anomaly and by the assumption that relative disparity information is computed from absolute disparities (Hypothesis 1).

  2. The absolute disparity anomaly and the mechanism of relative disparities

    PubMed Central

    Chopin, Adrien; Levi, Dennis; Knill, David; Bavelier, Daphne

    2016-01-01

    There has been a long-standing debate about the mechanisms underlying the perception of stereoscopic depth and the computation of the relative disparities that it relies on. Relative disparities between visual objects could be computed in two ways: (a) using the difference in the object's absolute disparities (Hypothesis 1) or (b) using relative disparities based on the differences in the monocular separations between objects (Hypothesis 2). To differentiate between these hypotheses, we measured stereoscopic discrimination thresholds for lines with different absolute and relative disparities. Participants were asked to judge the depth of two lines presented at the same distance from the fixation plane (absolute disparity) or the depth between two lines presented at different distances (relative disparity). We used a single stimulus method involving a unique memory component for both conditions, and no extraneous references were available. We also measured vergence noise using Nonius lines. Stereo thresholds were substantially worse for absolute disparities than for relative disparities, and the difference could not be explained by vergence noise. We attribute this difference to an absence of conscious readout of absolute disparities, termed the absolute disparity anomaly. We further show that the pattern of correlations between vergence noise and absolute and relative disparity acuities can be explained jointly by the existence of the absolute disparity anomaly and by the assumption that relative disparity information is computed from absolute disparities (Hypothesis 1). PMID:27248566

  3. Estimating the Health Risk Associated with the Use of Ecological Sanitation Toilets in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Kumwenda, Save; Msefula, Chisomo; Kadewa, Wilfred; Ngwira, Bagrey; Morse, Tracy

    2017-01-01

    Use of Ecological Sanitation (EcoSan) sludge is becoming popular due to increasing price of organic fertilizers in Malawi; however, there is little evidence on the associated risks. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was done to determine health risks associated with use of EcoSan. Pathogens considered included Escherichia coli (E. coli) , Salmonella, and soil transmitted helminths (STHs). Exponential and Beta Poisson models were used to estimate the risk from helminthic and bacterial pathogens, respectively. Main exposure pathways were through poor storage of sludge, contamination of foods during drying, walking barefoot on the ground contaminated with sludge, pit emptying without protection, and application of sludge in the fields. Estimated annual risk for Ascaris lumbricoides, Taenia, and hookworms was approximately over 5.6 × 10 -1 for both Fossa Alternas (FAs) and Urine Diverting Dry Toilet (UDDTs). Risk from E. coli and Salmonella was 8.9 × 10 -2 and above. The risks were higher than WHO acceptable risk for use of faecal sludge in crops of 10 -4 infections per year. Promoters and users of EcoSan latrines need to consider advocating for strict guidelines to reduce the risk.

  4. Estimating the Health Risk Associated with the Use of Ecological Sanitation Toilets in Malawi

    PubMed Central

    Msefula, Chisomo; Kadewa, Wilfred; Ngwira, Bagrey; Morse, Tracy

    2017-01-01

    Use of Ecological Sanitation (EcoSan) sludge is becoming popular due to increasing price of organic fertilizers in Malawi; however, there is little evidence on the associated risks. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was done to determine health risks associated with use of EcoSan. Pathogens considered included Escherichia coli (E. coli), Salmonella, and soil transmitted helminths (STHs). Exponential and Beta Poisson models were used to estimate the risk from helminthic and bacterial pathogens, respectively. Main exposure pathways were through poor storage of sludge, contamination of foods during drying, walking barefoot on the ground contaminated with sludge, pit emptying without protection, and application of sludge in the fields. Estimated annual risk for Ascaris lumbricoides, Taenia, and hookworms was approximately over 5.6 × 10−1 for both Fossa Alternas (FAs) and Urine Diverting Dry Toilet (UDDTs). Risk from E. coli and Salmonella was 8.9 × 10−2 and above. The risks were higher than WHO acceptable risk for use of faecal sludge in crops of 10−4 infections per year. Promoters and users of EcoSan latrines need to consider advocating for strict guidelines to reduce the risk. PMID:29250122

  5. Introducing the Mean Absolute Deviation "Effect" Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the use of effect sizes in the analysis of experimental and similar results, and reminds readers of the relative advantages of the mean absolute deviation as a measure of variation, as opposed to the more complex standard deviation. The mean absolute deviation is easier to use and understand, and more tolerant of extreme…

  6. Monolithically integrated absolute frequency comb laser system

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wanke, Michael C.

    2016-07-12

    Rather than down-convert optical frequencies, a QCL laser system directly generates a THz frequency comb in a compact monolithically integrated chip that can be locked to an absolute frequency without the need of a frequency-comb synthesizer. The monolithic, absolute frequency comb can provide a THz frequency reference and tool for high-resolution broad band spectroscopy.

  7. Prevalence of past-year dental visit among US adults, 1999-2010: comparison of trends and estimates between the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and three national surveys.

    PubMed

    Lin, Mei; Li, Chien-Hsun; Wei, Liang; Naavaal, Shillpa; Kolavic Gray, Shellie; Manz, Michael C; Barker, Laurie

    2017-03-01

    To compare estimated prevalence of past-year dental visit (PPYDV) among US adults aged ≥18 years from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to estimates from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We estimated PPYDV adjusted for covariates (age, race/ethnicity, education level, poverty status, edentulism) using BRFSS, MEPS, and NHIS 1999-2010, and NHANES 1999-2004. We tested trend in overall PPYDV for BRFSS, MEPS, and NHIS from 1999-2010. For 2002 and 2010, we calculated absolute differences (AD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in PPYDV between BRFSS and each of the other surveys overall and among subpopulations defined by covariates. We pooled NHANES 1999-2004 data for comparison with BRFSS 2002. From 1999 to 2010, BRFSS (68.5% vs. 67.5%), MEPS (43.5% vs. 39.7%), and NHIS (63.3% vs. 59.7%) showed small but significant decreases in overall PPYDV. In 2002, estimates for overall PPYDV were highest for BRFSS (70.0%) and lowest for MEPS (43.9%) with estimates for NHIS (61.5%) and NHANES (1999-2004: 58.1%) in between; the largest AD (26.2%, 95% CI: 25.0%-27.3%) was between BRFSS and MEPS. ADs were consistent in 2002 and 2010, overall and by covariates, except among edentate persons, where PPYDV estimates from BRFSS and NHIS were similar. Estimates of PPYDV from BRFSS were notably higher than estimates from MEPS, NHIS, or NHANES except among the edentate. Trends in PPYDV over time, however, were consistent across all surveys. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  8. Egomotion estimation with optic flow and air velocity sensors.

    PubMed

    Rutkowski, Adam J; Miller, Mikel M; Quinn, Roger D; Willis, Mark A

    2011-06-01

    We develop a method that allows a flyer to estimate its own motion (egomotion), the wind velocity, ground slope, and flight height using only inputs from onboard optic flow and air velocity sensors. Our artificial algorithm demonstrates how it could be possible for flying insects to determine their absolute egomotion using their available sensors, namely their eyes and wind sensitive hairs and antennae. Although many behaviors can be performed by only knowing the direction of travel, behavioral experiments indicate that odor tracking insects are able to estimate the wind direction and control their absolute egomotion (i.e., groundspeed). The egomotion estimation method that we have developed, which we call the opto-aeronautic algorithm, is tested in a variety of wind and ground slope conditions using a video recorded flight of a moth tracking a pheromone plume. Over all test cases that we examined, the algorithm achieved a mean absolute error in height of 7% or less. Furthermore, our algorithm is suitable for the navigation of aerial vehicles in environments where signals from the Global Positioning System are unavailable.

  9. Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

    PubMed

    Williams, Kirk R; Stansfield, Richard

    2017-08-01

    To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Electronic Absolute Cartesian Autocollimator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leviton, Douglas B.

    2006-01-01

    An electronic absolute Cartesian autocollimator performs the same basic optical function as does a conventional all-optical or a conventional electronic autocollimator but differs in the nature of its optical target and the manner in which the position of the image of the target is measured. The term absolute in the name of this apparatus reflects the nature of the position measurement, which, unlike in a conventional electronic autocollimator, is based absolutely on the position of the image rather than on an assumed proportionality between the position and the levels of processed analog electronic signals. The term Cartesian in the name of this apparatus reflects the nature of its optical target. Figure 1 depicts the electronic functional blocks of an electronic absolute Cartesian autocollimator along with its basic optical layout, which is the same as that of a conventional autocollimator. Referring first to the optical layout and functions only, this or any autocollimator is used to measure the compound angular deviation of a flat datum mirror with respect to the optical axis of the autocollimator itself. The optical components include an illuminated target, a beam splitter, an objective or collimating lens, and a viewer or detector (described in more detail below) at a viewing plane. The target and the viewing planes are focal planes of the lens. Target light reflected by the datum mirror is imaged on the viewing plane at unit magnification by the collimating lens. If the normal to the datum mirror is parallel to the optical axis of the autocollimator, then the target image is centered on the viewing plane. Any angular deviation of the normal from the optical axis manifests itself as a lateral displacement of the target image from the center. The magnitude of the displacement is proportional to the focal length and to the magnitude (assumed to be small) of the angular deviation. The direction of the displacement is perpendicular to the axis about which the

  11. Contribution of trochanteric soft tissues to fall force estimates, the factor of risk, and prediction of hip fracture risk.

    PubMed

    Bouxsein, Mary L; Szulc, Pawel; Munoz, Fracoise; Thrall, Erica; Sornay-Rendu, Elizabeth; Delmas, Pierre D

    2007-06-01

    We compared trochanteric soft tissue thickness, femoral aBMD, and the ratio of fall force to femoral strength (i.e., factor of risk) in 21 postmenopausal women with incident hip fracture and 42 age-matched controls. Reduced trochanteric soft tissue thickness, low femoral aBMD, and increased ratio of fall force to femoral strength (i.e., factor of risk) were associated with increased risk of hip fracture. The contribution of trochanteric soft tissue thickness to hip fracture risk is incompletely understood. A biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk that compares forces applied to the hip during a sideways fall to femoral strength may by improved by incorporating the force-attenuating effects of trochanteric soft tissues. We determined the relationship between femoral areal BMD (aBMD) and femoral failure load in 49 human cadaveric specimens, 53-99 yr of age. We compared femoral aBMD, trochanteric soft tissue thickness, and the ratio of fall forces to bone strength (i.e., the factor of risk for hip fracture, phi), before and after accounting for the force-attenuating properties of trochanteric soft tissue in 21 postmenopausal women with incident hip fracture and 42 age-matched controls. Femoral aBMD correlated strongly with femoral failure load (r2 = 0.73-0.83). Age, height, and weight did not differ; however, women with hip fracture had lower total femur aBMD (OR = 2.06; 95% CI, 1.19-3.56) and trochanteric soft tissue thickness (OR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.01, 3.31). Incorporation of trochanteric soft tissue thickness measurements reduced the estimates of fall forces by approximately 50%. After accounting for force-attenuating properties of trochanteric soft tissue, the ratio of fall forces to femoral strength was 50% higher in cases than controls (0.92 +/- 0.44 versus 0.65 +/- 0.50, respectively; p = 0.04). It is possible to compute a biomechanically based estimate of hip fracture risk by combining estimates of femoral strength based on an empirical

  12. Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kris A.; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip

    2018-03-01

    Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6-3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.

  13. 49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

  14. 49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

  15. 49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

  16. 49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

  17. 49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

  18. Epidemiology of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) in Germany from 2003 to 2009: a risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Schönberger, Katharina; Ludwig, Maria-Sabine; Wildner, Manfred; Weissbrich, Benedikt

    2013-01-01

    Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a fatal long-term complication of measles infection. We performed an estimation of the total number of SSPE cases in Germany for the period 2003 to 2009 and calculated the risk of SSPE after an acute measles infection. SSPE cases were collected from the Surveillance Unit for Rare Paediatric Diseases in Germany and the Institute of Virology and Immunobiology at the University of Würzburg. The total number of SSPE cases was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. For the period 2003 to 2009, 31 children with SSPE who were treated at German hospitals were identified. The capture-recapture estimate was 39 cases (95% confidence interval: 29.2-48.0). The risk of developing SSPE for children contracting measles infection below 5 years of age was calculated as 1∶1700 to 1∶3300. This risk is in the same order of magnitude as the risk of a fatal acute measles infection.

  19. Epidemiology of Subacute Sclerosing Panencephalitis (SSPE) in Germany from 2003 to 2009: A Risk Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Schönberger, Katharina; Ludwig, Maria-Sabine; Wildner, Manfred; Weissbrich, Benedikt

    2013-01-01

    Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a fatal long-term complication of measles infection. We performed an estimation of the total number of SSPE cases in Germany for the period 2003 to 2009 and calculated the risk of SSPE after an acute measles infection. SSPE cases were collected from the Surveillance Unit for Rare Paediatric Diseases in Germany and the Institute of Virology and Immunobiology at the University of Würzburg. The total number of SSPE cases was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. For the period 2003 to 2009, 31 children with SSPE who were treated at German hospitals were identified. The capture-recapture estimate was 39 cases (95% confidence interval: 29.2–48.0). The risk of developing SSPE for children contracting measles infection below 5 years of age was calculated as 1∶1700 to 1∶3300. This risk is in the same order of magnitude as the risk of a fatal acute measles infection. PMID:23874807

  20. Estimating the Value-at-Risk for some stocks at the capital market in Indonesia based on ARMA-FIGARCH models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukono; Lesmana, E.; Susanti, D.; Napitupulu, H.; Hidayat, Y.

    2017-11-01

    Value-at-Risk has already become a standard measurement that must be carried out by the financial institution for both internal interest and regulatory. In this paper, the estimation of Value-at-Risk of some stocks with econometric models approach is analyzed. In this research, we assume that the stock return follows the time series model. To do the estimation of mean value we are using ARMA models, while to estimate the variance value we are using FIGARCH models. Furthermore, the mean value estimator and the variance are used to estimate the Value-at-Risk. The result of the analysis shows that from five stock PRUF, BBRI, MPPA, BMRI, and INDF, the Value-at-Risk obtained are 0.01791, 0.06037, 0.02550, 0.06030, and 0.02585 respectively. Since Value-at-Risk represents the maximum risk size of each stock at a 95% level of significance, then it can be taken into consideration in determining the investment policy on stocks.

  1. Comparison of evidence on harms of medical interventions in randomized and nonrandomized studies

    PubMed Central

    Papanikolaou, Panagiotis N.; Christidi, Georgia D.; Ioannidis, John P.A.

    2006-01-01

    Background Information on major harms of medical interventions comes primarily from epidemiologic studies performed after licensing and marketing. Comparison with data from large-scale randomized trials is occasionally feasible. We compared evidence from randomized trials with that from epidemiologic studies to determine whether they give different estimates of risk for important harms of medical interventions. Methods We targeted well-defined, specific harms of various medical interventions for which data were already available from large-scale randomized trials (> 4000 subjects). Nonrandomized studies involving at least 4000 subjects addressing these same harms were retrieved through a search of MEDLINE. We compared the relative risks and absolute risk differences for specific harms in the randomized and nonrandomized studies. Results Eligible nonrandomized studies were found for 15 harms for which data were available from randomized trials addressing the same harms. Comparisons of relative risks between the study types were feasible for 13 of the 15 topics, and of absolute risk differences for 8 topics. The estimated increase in relative risk differed more than 2-fold between the randomized and nonrandomized studies for 7 (54%) of the 13 topics; the estimated increase in absolute risk differed more than 2-fold for 5 (62%) of the 8 topics. There was no clear predilection for randomized or nonrandomized studies to estimate greater relative risks, but usually (75% [6/8]) the randomized trials estimated larger absolute excess risks of harm than the nonrandomized studies did. Interpretation Nonrandomized studies are often conservative in estimating absolute risks of harms. It would be useful to compare and scrutinize the evidence on harms obtained from both randomized and nonrandomized studies. PMID:16505459

  2. Selection of comparison crash types for quasi-induced exposure risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Keall, Michael; Newstead, Stuart

    2009-03-01

    The objective of this study was to find a comparison crash type that best represented exposure on the road and to identify situations where the induced exposure risk estimates were likely to be biased. Counts of crash involvements were compared with distance driven estimates derived from a register of licensed motor vehicles to identify the most appropriate comparison crash type for induced exposure estimation, which is the crash type whose counts are best correlated with vehicle distance driven. The best sets of comparison crashes for disaggregations by driver age and gender and vehicle type were found to be multi-vehicle crashes in which the vehicle was damaged in the rear or multi-vehicle crashes in which the driver was adjudged to be not at fault. Likely bias of induced exposure risk estimates was identified, even for these best sets of comparison crashes, according to vehicle size (with large vehicles underrepresented) and owner age and gender (with young owners and female owners overrepresented). This research identified some important features of crash occurrence useful for making choices of comparison crash types when controlling for exposure. None of the crash types considered as comparison crashes performed perfectly. Even the crash types that seemed to best reflect exposure on the road still appeared to over- or underestimate distance driven according to owner age group, gender, and vehicle size.

  3. [WebSurvCa: web-based estimation of death and survival probabilities in a cohort].

    PubMed

    Clèries, Ramon; Ameijide, Alberto; Buxó, Maria; Vilardell, Mireia; Martínez, José Miguel; Alarcón, Francisco; Cordero, David; Díez-Villanueva, Ana; Yasui, Yutaka; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Vilardell, Maria Loreto; Carulla, Marià; Galceran, Jaume; Izquierdo, Ángel; Moreno, Víctor; Borràs, Josep M

    2018-01-19

    Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population). Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

    PubMed Central

    Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

    2016-01-01

    Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

  5. Usefulness of an Online Risk Estimator for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Predicting Corticosteroid Treatment in Infants Born Preterm.

    PubMed

    Cuna, Alain; Liu, Cynthia; Govindarajan, Shree; Queen, Margaret; Dai, Hongying; Truog, William E

    2018-06-01

    To assess the usefulness of a bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) outcome estimator developed by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) in identifying high-risk preterm infants treated with steroids. This was a single-center retrospective study of infants born ≤30 weeks of gestational age. The NICHD BPD outcome estimator was used to retrospectively calculate BPD risk at various postnatal ages. The best combination of risk estimates for identifying steroid treatment was identified using stepwise model selection. A cut-off value with the best combination of sensitivity and specificity was identified using receiver operating characteristic analysis. A total of 165 infants born preterm (mean gestational age 26 ± 1.6 weeks, mean birth weight 837 ± 171 g) were included. Of these, 61 were treated with steroids for BPD and 104 were not. Risk estimates for BPD or death were significantly greater in infants treated with steroids compared with controls. Both combined risk for severe BPD or death and single risk of no BPD were identified as factors with the best predictive power for identifying treatment with steroids, with accurate prediction possible as early as the second week of life. A greater than 37% risk for severe BPD or death or a less than 3% risk of no BPD on day of life 14 had 84%-92% sensitivity and 77%-80% specificity for predicting steroid treatment. The NICHD BPD outcome estimator can be a useful objective tool for identifying infants at high risk for BPD who may benefit from postnatal steroids. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in pediatric chest CT: a study in 30 patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

    2010-04-01

    Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dosereporting system that provides radiation dose and cancer risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. Recently, we reported a method for estimating patientspecific dose from pediatric chest CT. The purpose of this study is to extend that effort to patient-specific risk estimation and to a population of pediatric CT patients. Our study included thirty pediatric CT patients (16 males and 14 females; 0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created based on the patients' clinical CT data. Using a validated Monte Carlo program, organ dose received by the thirty patients from a chest scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT, 120 kVp, 1.375 pitch, 40-mm collimation, pediatric body scan field-of-view) was simulated and used to estimate patient-specific effective dose. Risks of cancer incidence were calculated for radiosensitive organs using gender-, age-, and tissue-specific risk coefficients and were used to derive patientspecific effective risk. The thirty patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-10.4 mSv/100 mAs and normalized effective risk of 0.5-5.8 cases/1000 exposed persons/100 mAs. Normalized lung dose and risk of lung cancer correlated strongly with average chest diameter (correlation coefficient: r = -0.98 to -0.99). Normalized effective risk also correlated strongly with average chest diameter (r = -0.97 to -0.98). These strong correlations can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk prior to or after an imaging study to potentially guide healthcare providers in justifying CT examinations and to guide individualized protocol design and optimization.

  7. Evaluation of the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, D. T.

    2012-01-01

    The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28degS, 28degS-28degN, 28-60degN and 60-90degN) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within +/-20%of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28degS and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the +/-20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45% and 9-39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model.

  8. Gravitational acceleration as a cue for absolute size and distance?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hecht, H.; Kaiser, M. K.; Banks, M. S.

    1996-01-01

    When an object's motion is influenced by gravity, as in the rise and fall of a thrown ball, the vertical component of acceleration is roughly constant at 9.8 m/sec2. In principle, an observer could use this information to estimate the absolute size and distance of the object (Saxberg, 1987a; Watson, Banks, von Hofsten, & Royden, 1992). In five experiments, we examined people's ability to utilize the size and distance information provided by gravitational acceleration. Observers viewed computer simulations of an object rising and falling on a trajectory aligned with the gravitational vector. The simulated objects were balls of different diameters presented across a wide range of simulated distances. Observers were asked to identify the ball that was presented and to estimate its distance. The results showed that observers were much more sensitive to average velocity than to the gravitational acceleration pattern. Likewise, verticality of the motion and visibility of the trajectory's apex had negligible effects on the accuracy of size and distance judgments.

  9. Combining clinical and angiographic variables for estimating risk of target lesion revascularization after drug eluting stent placement.

    PubMed

    Stolker, Joshua M; Cohen, David J; Kennedy, Kevin F; Pencina, Michael J; Arnold, Suzanne V; Kleiman, Neal S; Spertus, John A

    Drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce restenosis but require prolonged antiplatelet therapy, when compared with bare metal stents. Ideally, the patient should be involved in this risk:benefit assessment prior to selecting DES, to maximize the benefits and cost-effectiveness of care, and to improve medication adherence. However, accurate estimation of restenosis risk may require angiographic factors identified at cardiac catheterization. In a large PCI registry, we used logistic regression to identify clinical and angiographic predictors of clinically-driven target lesion revascularization (TLR) over the first year after stent placement. Discrimination c-statistic and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to calculate the incremental utility of angiographic variables when added to clinical predictors. Of 8501 PCI patients, TLR occurred in 4.5%. After adjusting for DES use, clinical TLR predictors were younger age, female sex, diabetes, prior PCI, and prior bypass surgery (model c-statistic 0.630). Angiographic predictors were vein graft PCI, in-stent restenosis lesion, longer stent length, and smaller stent diameter (c-statistic 0.650). After adding angiographic factors to the clinical model, c-statistic improved to 0.680 and the average separation in TLR risk among patients with and without TLR improved by 1% (IDI=0.010, 95% CI 0.009-0.014), primarily driven by those experiencing TLR (from 5.9% to 6.9% absolute risk). Among unselected PCI patients, the incidence of clinically-indicated TLR is <5% at 1-year, and standard clinical variables only moderately discriminate who will and will not experience TLR. Angiographic variables significantly improve TLR risk assessment, suggesting that stent selection may be best performed after coronary anatomy has been delineated. Although several recent studies have challenged traditional expectations regarding the duration of dual antiplatelet therapy, current guidelines recommend at least 6 to 12months of treatment

  10. Evidence for Absolute Moral Opposition to Genetically Modified Food in the United States.

    PubMed

    Scott, Sydney E; Inbar, Yoel; Rozin, Paul

    2016-05-01

    Public opposition to genetic modification (GM) technology in the food domain is widespread (Frewer et al., 2013). In a survey of U.S. residents representative of the population on gender, age, and income, 64% opposed GM, and 71% of GM opponents (45% of the entire sample) were "absolutely" opposed-that is, they agreed that GM should be prohibited no matter the risks and benefits. "Absolutist" opponents were more disgust sensitive in general and more disgusted by the consumption of genetically modified food than were non-absolutist opponents or supporters. Furthermore, disgust predicted support for legal restrictions on genetically modified foods, even after controlling for explicit risk-benefit assessments. This research suggests that many opponents are evidence insensitive and will not be influenced by arguments about risks and benefits. © The Author(s) 2016.

  11. Absolute measures of the completeness of the fossil record

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foote, M.; Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Measuring the completeness of the fossil record is essential to understanding evolution over long timescales, particularly when comparing evolutionary patterns among biological groups with different preservational properties. Completeness measures have been presented for various groups based on gaps in the stratigraphic ranges of fossil taxa and on hypothetical lineages implied by estimated evolutionary trees. Here we present and compare quantitative, widely applicable absolute measures of completeness at two taxonomic levels for a broader sample of higher taxa of marine animals than has previously been available. We provide an estimate of the probability of genus preservation per stratigraphic interval, and determine the proportion of living families with some fossil record. The two completeness measures use very different data and calculations. The probability of genus preservation depends almost entirely on the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic records, whereas the proportion of living families with a fossil record is influenced largely by Cenozoic data. These measurements are nonetheless highly correlated, with outliers quite explicable, and we find that completeness is rather high for many animal groups.

  12. Using absolute gravimeter data to determine vertical gravity gradients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, D.S.

    2001-01-01

    The position versus time data from a free-fall absolute gravimeter can be used to estimate the vertical gravity gradient in addition to the gravity value itself. Hipkin has reported success in estimating the vertical gradient value using a data set of unusually good quality. This paper explores techniques that may be applicable to a broader class of data that may be contaminated with "system response" errors of larger magnitude than were evident in the data used by Hipkin. This system response function is usually modelled as a sum of exponentially decaying sinusoidal components. The technique employed here involves combining the x0, v0 and g parameters from all the drops made during a site occupation into a single least-squares solution, and including the value of the vertical gradient and the coefficients of system response function in the same solution. The resulting non-linear equations must be solved iteratively and convergence presents some difficulties. Sparse matrix techniques are used to make the least-squares problem computationally tractable.

  13. A practical approach to risk-benefit estimation in pediatric drug research.

    PubMed

    Koren, Gideon

    2015-02-01

    One of the most difficult challenges in pediatric drug research is in exposing children to risk, often without a balanced chance of benefits. While the concept of risk is similar in adult research, the adult patient can decide for himself/herself on an acceptable level of risk, whereas children have to accept the decisions of their guardians. This paper attempts to put the complexities of estimating risk in pediatric drug research into their practical perspective, and to familiarize the reader with the way such processes are conducted in different parts of the world. Although there are regional differences, all authorities typically quantify risks of pediatric research in general, and drug research in particular, in three levels: those experienced in day-to-day life; risks slightly above this 'baseline' risk; and risks substantially above 'baseline risk'. Proportionally, the diligence of the ethics process depends on these levels, as well as on the potential benefits (or lack of) to the child involved in the research. Importantly, risk is context dependent, and a particular intervention may be effective or safe in one setting but not in another, based on local experience, staffing levels, and similar variabilities.

  14. Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori J.; Wang, Minli; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s

  15. Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine.

    PubMed

    Petry, Karl-Ulrich; Bollaerts, Kaatje; Bonanni, Paolo; Stanley, Margaret; Drury, Rosybel; Joura, Elmar; Kjaer, Susanne K; Meijer, Chris J L M; Riethmuller, Didier; Soubeyrand, Benoit; Van Damme, Pierre; Bosch, Xavier

    2018-03-19

    The nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine is indicated for active immunisation of individuals from the age of 9 years against cervical, vulvar, vaginal and anal premalignant lesions and cancers causally related to vaccine HPV high risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58, and to the HPV low risk types 6 and 11, causing genital warts. To estimate the lifetime risk (up to the age of 75 years) for developing cervical cancer after vaccinating a HPV naïve girl (e.g. 9 to 12 years old) with the 9vHPV vaccine in the hypothetical absence of cervical cancer screening. We built Monte Carlo simulation models using historical pre-screening age-specific cancer incidence data and current mortality data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Estimates of genotype contribution fractions and vaccine efficacy were used to estimate the residual lifetime risk after vaccination assuming lifelong protection. We estimated that, in the hypothetical absence of cervical screening and assuming lifelong protection, 9vHPV vaccination reduced the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks 7-fold with a residual lifetime cancer risks ranging from 1/572 (UK) to 1/238 (Denmark) and mortality risks ranging from 1/1488 (UK) to 1/851 (Denmark). After decades of repetitive cervical screenings, the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks was reduced between 2- and 4-fold depending on the country. Our simulations demonstrate how evidence can be generated to support decision-making by individual healthcare seekers regarding cervical cancer prevention.

  16. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For covered debt positions that are derivatives, a bank must... (including derivatives) in identical debt issues or indices. (iii) A bank must multiply the absolute value of... multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or short covered equity position...

  17. Radiotherapy for glioma during pregnancy: fetal dose estimates, risk assessment and clinical management.

    PubMed

    Haba, Y; Twyman, N; Thomas, S J; Overton, C; Dendy, P; Burnet, N G

    2004-05-01

    Cancer in pregnancy is relatively uncommon, but constitutes a major problem. We report the measurement of scatter dose to the fetus and the estimated fetal risk from that exposure in an illustrative case of a patient, 20 weeks pregnant, with a grade 3 anaplastic astrocytoma. A clinical decision was made to withhold radiotherapy, if possible, until after delivery. Sequential magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed no progression during the pregnancy. In the event, she was managed conservatively until the successful completion of her pregnancy. In case radiotherapy was required, an estimation of the fetal risk was made. Phantom measurements were undertaken to assess the likely fetal dose. Film badges were used to estimate the scattered radiation energy. Measurements were made on a Varian 600C at 6 MV and Asea Brown Boveri (ABB) accelerator at 8 and 16 MV. Doses were measured at 30, 45 and 60 cm from the isocentre; the fetus was assumed to lie at about 60 cm and not closer than 45 cm from the isocentre. Estimated doses to the position of the fetus were lowest with the 6 MV Varian accelerator. Using this machine without additional abdominal shielding, the estimated dose on the surface at 45 cm from the tumour volume was 2.2 cGy for a tumour dose of 54 Gy; using the ABB accelerator, the dose varied between 49-59 cGy. The energy of scattered radiation was in the range 208-688 keV, so that additional shielding would be practical to further reduce the fetal dose. The risk of cancer up to the age of 15 years attributable to radiation is 1 in 1700 per cGy, of which half will be fatal (i.e. 1 in 3300 per cGy). A dose of 2.2 cGy adds a risk of fatal cancer by the age 15 years of only 1 in 1500. Because the addition of shielding might halve the fetal dose, this risk should be reduced to 1 in 3000. For comparison, the overall UK risk of cancer up to the age 15 years is 1 in 650. In conclusion, careful choice of linear accelerator for the treatment of a pregnant woman and the use

  18. A new technique for fire risk estimation in the wildland urban interface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dasgupta, S.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

    A novel technique based on the physical variable of pre-ignition energy is proposed for assessing fire risk in the Grassland-Urban-Interface The physical basis lends meaning a site and season independent applicability possibilities for computing spread rates and ignition probabilities features contemporary fire risk indices usually lack The method requires estimates of grass moisture content and temperature A constrained radiative-transfer inversion scheme on MODIS NIR-SWIR reflectances which reduces solution ambiguity is used for grass moisture retrieval while MODIS land surface temperature emissivity products are used for retrieving grass temperature Subpixel urban contamination of the MODIS reflective and thermal signals over a Grassland-Urban-Interface pixel is corrected using periodic estimates of urban influence from high spatial resolution ASTER

  19. Absolute Paleointensity Study of Miocene Tiva Canyon Tuff, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patiman, A.; Bowles, J.

    2014-12-01

    Unoriented samples from the ~12.7 Ma Tiva Canyon (TC) tuff from Yucca Mountain, Nevada are studied in terms of magnetic properties and geomagnetic paleointensity. The magnetic mineralogy and magnetic properties of the TC tuff have previously been well documented, and the remanence-carrier in ~15-m thick zones at the top and bottom of the unit is dominantly is single domain (SD) to superparamagnetic (SP) magnetite, which may be considered ideal for absolute paleointensity studies. Among one of the several episodic volcanic eruptions of the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field (SWNVF), the welded TC tuff belongs to the Paintbrush Group. Here we present magnetic properties from two previously unreported sections of the TC tuff, as well as Thellier-type absolute paleointensity estimates. Samples were collected from the lower ~7 m at the base of the flow. Magnetic properties studied include hysteresis, bulk magnetic susceptibility, frequency-dependent susceptibility, and anhysteretic remanent magnetization acquisition. Magnetic property results are consistent with earlier work, showing that the main magnetic mineral is magnetite. SP samples are dominant from the lower ~1 m to ~3.6 m basal unit while the middle unit of ~3.7 m to 7.0 m mainly consists of SD samples. The paleointensity results are closely tied to the stratigraphic height and magnetic properties linked to domain state. The SD samples have consistent absolute paleointensity values 32.40±0.22 uT, VADM 5.74*1022 A.m2 and behaved ideally during paleointensity experiments. The SP samples have consistently higher paleointensity and less ideal behavior, but would likely pass many traditional quality-control tests. Since the magnetite has been interpreted to form by precipitation out of the glass post-emplacement, but at temperatures higher than the Curie temperature, we tentatively interpret the SD remanence to be a primary thermal remanent magnetization and the paleointensity result to be a valid estimate of

  20. Assessing uncertainty in published risk estimates using ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Introduction: The National Research Council recommended quantitative evaluation of uncertainty in effect estimates for risk assessment. This analysis considers uncertainty across model forms and model parameterizations with hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] and lung cancer mortality as an example. The objective is to characterize model uncertainty by evaluating estimates across published epidemiologic studies of the same cohort.Methods: This analysis was based on 5 studies analyzing a cohort of 2,357 workers employed from 1950-74 in a chromate production plant in Maryland. Cox and Poisson models were the only model forms considered by study authors to assess the effect of Cr(VI) on lung cancer mortality. All models adjusted for smoking and included a 5-year exposure lag, however other latency periods and model covariates such as age and race were considered. Published effect estimates were standardized to the same units and normalized by their variances to produce a standardized metric to compare variability within and between model forms. A total of 5 similarly parameterized analyses were considered across model form, and 16 analyses with alternative parameterizations were considered within model form (10 Cox; 6 Poisson). Results: Across Cox and Poisson model forms, adjusted cumulative exposure coefficients (betas) for 5 similar analyses ranged from 2.47 to 4.33 (mean=2.97, σ2=0.63). Within the 10 Cox models, coefficients ranged from 2.53 to 4.42 (mean=3.29, σ2=0.

  1. Using the Lorenz Curve to Characterize Risk Predictiveness and Etiologic Heterogeneity

    PubMed Central

    Mauguen, Audrey; Begg, Colin B.

    2017-01-01

    The Lorenz curve is a graphical tool that is used widely in econometrics. It represents the spread of a probability distribution, and its traditional use has been to characterize population distributions of wealth or income, or more specifically, inequalities in wealth or income. However, its utility in public health research has not been broadly established. The purpose of this article is to explain its special usefulness for characterizing the population distribution of disease risks, and in particular for identifying the precise disease burden that can be predicted to occur in segments of the population that are known to have especially high (or low) risks, a feature that is important for evaluating the yield of screening or other disease prevention initiatives. We demonstrate that, although the Lorenz curve represents the distribution of predicted risks in a population at risk for the disease, in fact it can be estimated from a case–control study conducted in the population without the need for information on absolute risks. We explore two different estimation strategies and compare their statistical properties using simulations. The Lorenz curve is a statistical tool that deserves wider use in public health research. PMID:27096256

  2. Maximizing Information Yield From Pheromone-Baited Monitoring Traps: Estimating Plume Reach, Trapping Radius, and Absolute Density of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Michigan Apple

    PubMed Central

    Adams, C. G.; Schenker, J. H.; McGhee, P. S.; Gut, L. J.; Brunner, J. F.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Novel methods of data analysis were used to interpret codling moth (Cydia pomonella) catch data from central-trap, multiple-release experiments using a standard codlemone-baited monitoring trap in commercial apple orchards not under mating disruption. The main objectives were to determine consistency and reliability for measures of: 1) the trapping radius, composed of the trap’s behaviorally effective plume reach and the maximum dispersive distance of a responder population; and 2) the proportion of the population present in the trapping area that is caught. Two moth release designs were used: 1) moth releases at regular intervals in the four cardinal directions, and 2) evenly distributed moth releases across entire approximately 18-ha orchard blocks using both high and low codling moth populations. For both release designs, at high populations, the mean proportion catch was 0.01, and for the even release of low populations, that value was approximately 0.02. Mean maximum dispersive distance for released codling moth males was approximately 260 m. Behaviorally effective plume reach for the standard codling moth trap was < 5 m, and total trapping area for a single trap was approximately 21 ha. These estimates were consistent across three growing seasons and are supported by extraordinarily high replication for this type of field experiment. Knowing the trapping area and mean proportion caught, catch number per single monitoring trap can be translated into absolute pest density using the equation: males per trapping area = catch per trapping area/proportion caught. Thus, catches of 1, 3, 10, and 30 codling moth males per trap translate to approximately 5, 14, 48, and 143 males/ha, respectively, and reflect equal densities of females, because the codling moth sex ratio is 1:1. Combined with life-table data on codling moth fecundity and mortality, along with data on crop yield per trapping area, this fundamental knowledge of how to interpret catch

  3. Influence of graphic format on comprehension of risk information among American Indians.

    PubMed

    Sprague, Debra; LaVallie, Donna L; Wolf, Fredric M; Jacobsen, Clemma; Sayson, Kirsten; Buchwald, Dedra

    2011-01-01

    Presentation of risk information influences patients' ability to interpret health care options. Little is known about this relationship between risk presentation and interpretation among American Indians. Three hundred American Indian employees on a western American Indian reservation were invited to complete an anonymous written survey. All surveys included a vignette presenting baseline risk information about a hypothetical cancer and possible benefits of 2 prevention plans. Risk interpretation was assessed by correct answers to 3 questions evaluating the risk reduction associated with the plans. Numeric information was the same in all surveys, but framing varied; half expressed prevention benefits in terms of relative risk reduction and half in terms of absolute risk reduction. All surveys used text to describe the benefits of the 2 plans, but half included a graphic image. Surveys were distributed randomly. Responses were analyzed using binary logistic regression with the robust variance estimator to account for clustering of outcomes within participant. Use of a graphic image was associated with higher odds of correctly answering 3 risk interpretation questions (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval = 1.5-4.0, P < 0.001) compared to the text-only format. These findings were similar to those of previous studies carried out in the general population. Neither framing information as relative compared to absolute risk nor the interaction between graphic image and relative risk presentation was associated with risk interpretation. One type of graphic image was associated with increased understanding of risk in a small sample of American Indian adults. The authors recommend further investigation of the effectiveness of other types of graphic displays for conveying health risk information to this population.

  4. Estimate of Space Radiation-Induced Cancer Risks for International Space Station Orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Honglu; Atwell, William; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Yang, Chui-hsu

    1996-01-01

    Excess cancer risks from exposures to space radiation are estimated for various orbits of the International Space Station (ISS). Organ exposures are computed with the transport codes, BRYNTRN and HZETRN, and the computerized anatomical male and computerized anatomical female models. Cancer risk coefficients in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements report No. 98 are used to generate lifetime excess cancer incidence and cancer mortality after a one-month mission to ISS. The generated data are tabulated to serve as a quick reference for assessment of radiation risk to astronauts on ISS missions.

  5. Space Radiation Cancer Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2007-01-01

    Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation

  6. Effect of induction chemotherapy on estimated risk of radiation pneumonitis in bulky non–small cell lung cancer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Amin, Neha P., E-mail: npamin@gmail.com; Miften, Moyed; Thornton, Dale

    2013-10-01

    Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were createdmore » for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.« less

  7. AN INFORMATIC APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ECOLOGICAL RISKS POSED BY PHARMACEUTICAL USE

    EPA Science Inventory

    A new method for estimating risks of human prescription pharmaceuticals based on information found in regulatory filings as well as scientific and trade literature is described in a presentation at the Pharmaceuticals in the Environment Workshop in Las Vegas, NV, August 23-25, 20...

  8. The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

    2011-08-01

    The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

  9. Model estimation of claim risk and premium for motor vehicle insurance by using Bayesian method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukono; Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Wulandari, R.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

    2018-01-01

    Risk models need to be estimated by the insurance company in order to predict the magnitude of the claim and determine the premiums charged to the insured. This is intended to prevent losses in the future. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of risk model claims and motor vehicle insurance premiums using Bayesian methods approach. It is assumed that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution, while a number of claims assumed to follow a Gamma distribution. The estimation of parameters of the distribution of the frequency and amount of claims are made by using Bayesian methods. Furthermore, the estimator distribution of frequency and amount of claims are used to estimate the aggregate risk models as well as the value of the mean and variance. The mean and variance estimator that aggregate risk, was used to predict the premium eligible to be charged to the insured. Based on the analysis results, it is shown that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution with parameter values λ is 5.827. While a number of claims follow the Gamma distribution with parameter values p is 7.922 and θ is 1.414. Therefore, the obtained values of the mean and variance of the aggregate claims respectively are IDR 32,667,489.88 and IDR 38,453,900,000,000.00. In this paper the prediction of the pure premium eligible charged to the insured is obtained, which amounting to IDR 2,722,290.82. The prediction of the claims and premiums aggregate can be used as a reference for the insurance company’s decision-making in management of reserves and premiums of motor vehicle insurance.

  10. Using, Seeing, Feeling, and Doing Absolute Value for Deeper Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ponce, Gregorio A.

    2008-01-01

    Using sticky notes and number lines, a hands-on activity is shared that anchors initial student thinking about absolute value. The initial point of reference should help students successfully evaluate numeric problems involving absolute value. They should also be able to solve absolute value equations and inequalities that are typically found in…

  11. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Prasad, Mano K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  12. Planck absolute entropy of a rotating BTZ black hole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riaz, S. M. Jawwad

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, the Planck absolute entropy and the Bekenstein-Smarr formula of the rotating Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli (BTZ) black hole are presented via a complex thermodynamical system contributed by its inner and outer horizons. The redefined entropy approaches zero as the temperature of the rotating BTZ black hole tends to absolute zero, satisfying the Nernst formulation of a black hole. Hence, it can be regarded as the Planck absolute entropy of the rotating BTZ black hole.

  13. Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2012-06-05

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  14. The effect of giving global coronary risk information to adults: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Sheridan, Stacey L; Viera, Anthony J; Krantz, Mori J; Ice, Christa L; Steinman, Lesley E; Peters, Karen E; Kopin, Laurie A; Lungelow, Danielle

    2010-02-08

    Global coronary heart disease (CHD) risk estimation (ie, a quantitative estimate of a patient's chances of CHD calculated by combining risk factors in an empirical equation) is recommended as a starting point for primary prevention efforts in all US adults. Whether it improves outcomes is currently unknown. To assess the effect of providing global CHD risk information to adults, we performed a systematic evidence review. We searched MEDLINE for the years 1980 to 2008, Psych Info, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database and included English-language articles that met prespecified inclusion criteria. Two reviewers independently reviewed titles, abstracts, and articles for inclusion and assessed study quality. We identified 20 articles, reporting on 18 unique fair or good quality studies (including 14 randomized controlled studies). These showed that global CHD risk information alone or with accompanying education increased the accuracy of perceived risk and probably increased intent to start therapy. Studies with repeated risk information or risk information and repeated doses of counseling showed small significant reductions in predicted CHD risk (absolute differences, -0.2% to -2% over 10 years in studies using risk estimates derived from Framingham equations). Studies providing global risk information at only 1 point in time seemed ineffective. Global CHD risk information seems to improve the accuracy of risk perception and may increase intent to initiate CHD prevention among individuals at moderate to high risk. The effect of global risk presentation on more distal outcomes is less clear and seems to be related to the intensity of accompanying interventions.

  15. Development and validation of QDiabetes-2018 risk prediction algorithm to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes: cohort study.

    PubMed

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-11-20

    Objectives  To derive and validate updated QDiabetes-2018 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of type 2 diabetes in men and women, taking account of potential new risk factors, and to compare their performance with current approaches. Design  Prospective open cohort study. Setting  Routinely collected data from 1457 general practices in England contributing to the QResearch database: 1094 were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 363 were used to validate the scores. Participants  11.5 million people aged 25-84 and free of diabetes at baseline: 8.87 million in the derivation cohort and 2.63 million in the validation cohort. Methods  Cox proportional hazards models were used in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QDiabetes (age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, family history of diabetes in a first degree relative, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, and regular use of corticosteroids) and new risk factors: atypical antipsychotics, statins, schizophrenia or bipolar affective disorder, learning disability, gestational diabetes, and polycystic ovary syndrome. Additional models included fasting blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HBA1c). Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measure  Incident type 2 diabetes recorded on the general practice record. Results  In the derivation cohort, 178 314 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified during follow-up arising from 42.72 million person years of observation. In the validation cohort, 62 326 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified from 14.32 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met our model inclusion criteria. Model A included

  16. Emergency Physician Risk Estimates and Admission Decisions for Chest Pain: A Web-Based Scenario Study.

    PubMed

    Schriger, David L; Menchine, Michael; Wiechmann, Warren; Carmelli, Guy

    2018-04-20

    We conducted this study to better understand how emergency physicians estimate risk and make admission decisions for patients with low-risk chest pain. We created a Web-based survey consisting of 5 chest pain scenarios that included history, physical examination, ECG findings, and basic laboratory studies, including a negative initial troponin-level result. We administered the scenarios in random order to emergency medicine residents and faculty at 11 US emergency medicine residency programs. We randomized respondents to receive questions about 1 of 2 endpoints, acute coronary syndrome or serious complication (death, dysrhythmia, or congestive heart failure within 30 days). For each scenario, the respondent provided a quantitative estimate of the probability of the endpoint, a qualitative estimate of the risk of the endpoint (very low, low, moderate, high, or very high), and an admission decision. Respondents also provided demographic information and completed a 3-item Fear of Malpractice scale. Two hundred eight (65%) of 320 eligible physicians completed the survey, 73% of whom were residents. Ninety-five percent of respondents were wholly consistent (no admitted patient was assigned a lower probability than a discharged patient). For individual scenarios, probability estimates covered at least 4 orders of magnitude; admission rates for scenarios varied from 16% to 99%. The majority of respondents (>72%) had admission thresholds at or below a 1% probability of acute coronary syndrome. Respondents did not fully differentiate the probability of acute coronary syndrome and serious outcome; for each scenario, estimates for the two were quite similar despite a serious outcome being far less likely. Raters used the terms "very low risk" and "low risk" only when their probability estimates were less than 1%. The majority of respondents considered any probability greater than 1% for acute coronary syndrome or serious outcome to be at least moderate risk and warranting

  17. Overview of entry risk predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrozinski, R.; Mendeck, G.; Cutri-Kohart, R.

    Risk to people on the ground from uncontrolled entries of spacecraft is a primary concern when analyzing end-of-life disposal options for satellites. Countries must balance this risk with the need to mitigate an exponentially growing space debris population. Currently the United States does this via guidelines that call for a satellite to be disposed of in a controlled manner if an uncontrolled entry would be too risky to people on the ground. This risk is measured by a quantity called "casualty expectation", or E , where casualty expectation is defined as the expectedc number of people suffering death or injury due to a spacecraft entry event. If Ec exceeds 1 in 10,000, U. S. guidelines state that the entry should be controlled rather than uncontrolled. Since this guideline can have serious impacts on the cost, lifetime, and even the mission and functionality of a satellite, it is critical that this quantity be estimated well, and decision makers understand all assumptions and limitations inherent in the resulting value. This paper discusses several issues regarding estimates of casualty expectation, beginning with an overview of relevant United States policies and guidelines. The equation the space industry typically uses to estimate casualty expectation is presented, along with a look at the sensitivity of the results to the typical assumptions, models, and initial condition uncertainties. Differences in these modeling issues with respect to launch failure Ec estimates are included in the discussion. An alternate quantity to assess risks due to spacecraft entries is introduced. "Probability of casualty", or Pc , is defined as the probability of one or more instances of people suffering death or injury due to a spacecraft entry event. The equation to estimate Pc is derived, where the same assumptions, modeling, and initial condition issues for Ec apply. Several examples are then given of both Ec and Pc estimate calculations. Due to the difficult issues in

  18. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

    PubMed Central

    Pletcher, Mark J; Tice, Jeffrey A; Pignone, Michael; McCulloch, Charles; Callister, Tracy Q; Browner, Warren S

    2004-01-01

    Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female), we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham) to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance), her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years). In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy. PMID:15327691

  19. Perceived Preparedness of Health Care Students for Providing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Management

    PubMed Central

    Zolezzi, Monica; Abdallah, Oraib; Aden, Suad; Major, Stella; White, Diana; El-Awaisi, Alla

    2017-01-01

    Early assessment and management of risk factors is known to have significant impact in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its associated burden. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management (CVDRAM) is best approached by teamwork across health care professionals. This study aimed at assessing health care students’ (HCSs) knowledge about the parameters needed for estimating CVD risk, their self-assessed preparedness/confidence and perceived barriers for the provision of CVDRAM services through a survey administered to third and fourth year pharmacy, medical, and nursing students in Qatar. Although all student cohorts achieved similar knowledge scores, less than half (n = 38, 47%) were able to identify all of the six main risk factors necessary to estimate absolute CVD risk, and a third (32%) were unable to identify total cholesterol as an independent risk factor necessary to estimate CVD risk. Training on the use of CVD risk assessment tools differed among the three student cohorts. All student cohorts also perceived similar levels of preparedness in CVDRAM. However, pharmacy students reported the highest preparedness/confidence with the use of the latest CVDRAM guidelines. The majority of statements listed under the barriers scale were perceived by the students as being moderate (median score = 3). Poor public acceptance or unawareness of importance of estimating CVD risk was the only barrier perceived as a major by nursing students. Future integration of interprofessional educational (IPE) activities in the CVDRAM curricula of HCSs may be a suitable strategy to minimize barriers and foster collaborative practice for the provision of CVDRAM services in Qatar. PMID:28970420

  20. Risk of breast cancer following low-dose radiation exposure

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Boice, J.D. Jr.; Land, C.E.; Shore, R.E.

    1979-06-01

    Risk of breast cancer following radiation exposure was studied, based on surveys of tuberculosis patients who had multiple fluoroscopic examinations of the chest, mastitis patients given radiotherapy, and atomic bomb survivors. Analysis suggests that the risk is greatest for persons exposed as adolescents, although exposure at all ages carries some risk. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity in all studies. Direct evidence of radiation risk at doses under 0.5 Gy (50 rad) is apparent among A-bomb survivors. Fractionation does not appear to diminish risk, nor does time since exposure (even after 45 years of observation). The interval between exposuremore » and the clinical appearance of radiogenic breast cancer may be mediated by hormonal or other age-related factors but is unrelated to dose. Age-specific absolute risk estimtes for all studies are remarkably similar. The best estimate of risk among American women exposed after age 20 is 6.6 excess cancers/10/sup 4/ WY-Gy (10/sup 6/ WY-rad).« less

  1. Estimated dietary dioxin exposure and breast cancer risk among women from the French E3N prospective cohort.

    PubMed

    Danjou, Aurélie M N; Fervers, Béatrice; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Philip, Thierry; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Dossus, Laure

    2015-03-17

    Dioxins are environmental and persistent pollutants mostly emitted from combustion facilities (e.g. waste incinerators, metal and cement industries). Known to be endocrine disrupting chemicals, dioxins are suspected to increase breast cancer (BC) risk. Although diet is considered the primary source of dioxin exposure, no previous study has been published on dietary dioxin exposure in relation to BC risk. We aimed to assess dietary dioxin exposure among women from the E3N cohort and estimate BC risk associated with this exposure. The study included 63,830 women from the E3N cohort who completed a diet history questionnaire (DHQ) in 1993 and were followed until 2008. Dietary dioxin exposure was estimated by combining consumption data from the E3N DHQ and food dioxin contamination data from a French national monitoring program. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox models adjusted for BC risk factors. Mean dietary dioxin exposure was estimated at 1.3 ± 0.4 pg/kg body weight (BW)/day. A 0.4 pg/kg BW/d increase in dioxin intake was not associated with overall BC risk (HR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.05). A significant decrease in risk of estrogen receptor negative (ER-)/progesterone receptor negative (PR-) tumors was observed among post-menopausal women in the upper quartile of estimated dioxin intake (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.96; P for trend across quartiles = 0.0463). Overall, no association between estimated dietary dioxin exposure and BC risk was found among E3N women. Further studies should include both dietary and environmental exposures to determine whether low-dose dioxin exposure is associated with BC risk.

  2. Determination of the absolute carrier-envelope phase by angle-resolved photoelectron spectra of Ar by intense circularly polarized few-cycle pulses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukahori, Shinichi; Ando, Toshiaki; Miura, Shun; Kanya, Reika; Yamanouchi, Kaoru; Rathje, Tim; Paulus, Gerhard G.

    2017-05-01

    The angle-resolved photoelectron spectra of Ar are recorded using intense circularly polarized near-infrared few-cycle laser pulses, and the effect of the depletion of Ar atoms by the ionization and the effect of the Coulombic potential are examined by the classical trajectory Monte Carlo simulations. On the basis of the comparison between the experimental and theoretical photoelectron spectra, a procedure for estimating the absolute carrier-envelope phase (CEP) of the few-cycle laser pulses interacting with atoms and molecules is proposed. It is confirmed that the absolute CEP can securely be estimated without any numerical calculations once the angular distribution of the yield of photoelectrons having the kinetic energy larger than 30 eV is measured with the peak laser intensity in the range between 1 ×1014 and 5 ×1014W /c m2 .

  3. COMMUNITY-RANDOMIZED INTERVENTION TRIAL WITH UV DISINFECTION FOR ESTIMATING THE RISK OF PEDIATRIC ILLNESS FROM MUNICIPAL GROUNDWATER CONSUMPTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of this study is to estimate the risk of childhood febrile and gastrointestinal illnesses associated with drinking municipal water from a groundwater source. The risk estimate will be partitioned into two separate components— illness attributable to contaminated...

  4. Impact of pesticide exposure misclassification on estimates of relative risks in the Agricultural Health Study.

    PubMed

    Blair, Aaron; Thomas, Kent; Coble, Joseph; Sandler, Dale P; Hines, Cynthia J; Lynch, Charles F; Knott, Charles; Purdue, Mark P; Zahm, Shelia Hoar; Alavanja, Michael C R; Dosemeci, Mustafa; Kamel, Freya; Hoppin, Jane A; Freeman, Laura Beane; Lubin, Jay H

    2011-07-01

    The Agricultural Health Study (AHS) is a prospective study of licensed pesticide applicators and their spouses in Iowa and North Carolina. We evaluate the impact of occupational pesticide exposure misclassification on relative risks using data from the cohort and the AHS Pesticide Exposure Study (AHS/PES). We assessed the impact of exposure misclassification on relative risks using the range of correlation coefficients observed between measured post-application urinary levels of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and a chlorpyrifos metabolite and exposure estimates based on an algorithm from 83 AHS pesticide applications. Correlations between urinary levels of 2,4-D and a chlorpyrifos metabolite and algorithm estimated intensity scores were about 0.4 for 2,4-D (n=64), 0.8 for liquid chlorpyrifos (n=4) and 0.6 for granular chlorpyrifos (n=12). Correlations of urinary levels with kilograms of active ingredient used, duration of application, or number of acres treated were lower and ranged from -0.36 to 0.19. These findings indicate that a priori expert-derived algorithm scores were more closely related to measured urinary levels than individual exposure determinants evaluated here. Estimates of potential bias in relative risks based on the correlations from the AHS/PES indicate that non-differential misclassification of exposure using the algorithm would bias estimates towards the null, but less than that from individual exposure determinants. Although correlations between algorithm scores and urinary levels were quite good (ie, correlations between 0.4 and 0.8), exposure misclassification would still bias relative risk estimates in the AHS towards the null and diminish study power.

  5. Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

    2006-09-20

    To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and the cardiovascular risk is low.

  6. Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications

    PubMed Central

    Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

    2006-01-01

    Background To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. Methods To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Results Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. Conclusion In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and

  7. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas.

    PubMed

    Coghlan, A; Hoad, V C; Seed, C R; Flower, R Lp; Harley, R J; Herbert, D; Faddy, H M

    2018-01-01

    International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases. We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV). We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to <1 in one billion and the risk of severe consequences ranging from 1 in 130 million to <1 in one billion. The predicted unmitigated likelihood of infection in blood components manufactured from donors travelling to the above-mentioned areas was very low, with the possibility of severe consequences in a transfusion recipient even smaller. Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from select infectious disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  8. Novalis' Poetic Uncertainty: A "Bildung" with the Absolute

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mika, Carl

    2016-01-01

    Novalis, the Early German Romantic poet and philosopher, had at the core of his work a mysterious depiction of the "absolute." The absolute is Novalis' name for a substance that defies precise knowledge yet calls for a tentative and sensitive speculation. How one asserts a truth, represents an object, and sets about encountering things…

  9. Interpretation of the Arcade 2 Absolute Sky Brightness Measurement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seiffert, M.; Fixsen, D. J.; Kogut, A.; Levin, S. M.; Limon, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Mirel, P.; Singal, J.; Villela, T.; Wollack, E.; hide

    2011-01-01

    We use absolutely calibrated data between 3 and 90 GHz from the 2006 balloon flight of the ARCADE 2 instrument, along with previous measurements at other frequencies to constrain models of extragalactic emission. Such emission is a combination of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) monopole, Galactic foreground emission, the integrated contribution of radio emission from external galaxies, any spectral distortions present in the CMB, and any other extragalactic source. After removal of estimates of foreground emission from our own Galaxy, and an estimated contribution of external galaxies, we present fits to a combination of the flat-spectrum CMB and potential spectral distortions in the CMB. We find 217 upper limits to CMB spectral distortions of u < 6x10(exp -4) and [Y(sub ff)] < 1x10(exp -4). We also find a significant detection of a residual signal beyond that, which can be explained by the CMB plus the integrated radio emission from galaxies estimated from existing surveys. This residual signal may be due to an underestimated galactic foreground contribution, an unaccounted for contribution of a background of radio sources, or some combination of both. The residual signal is consistent with emission in the form of a power law with amplitUde 18.4 +/- 2.1 K at 0.31 GHz and a spectral index of -2.57 +/- 0.05.

  10. Estimating the Economic Benefits of Eliminating Job Strain as a Risk Factor for Depression.

    PubMed

    Cocker, Fiona; Sanderson, Kristy; LaMontagne, Anthony D

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify the economic benefits of eliminating job strain as a risk factor for depression, using published population-attributable risk estimates of depression attributable to job strain (13.2% for men, 17.2% for women). Cohort simulation using state-transition Markov modeling estimated costs and health outcomes for employed persons who met criteria for lifetime DSM-IV major depression. A societal perspective over 1-year and lifetime time horizons was used. Among employed Australians, $890 million (5.8%) of the annual societal cost of depression was attributable to job strain. Employers bore the brunt of these costs, as they arose from lost productive time and increased risk of job turnover among employees experiencing depression. Proven, practicable means exist to reduce job strain. The findings demonstrate likely financial benefits to employers for expanding psychosocial risk management, providing a financial incentive to complement and reinforce legal and ethical directives.

  11. Radiation dose and cancer risk estimates in helical CT for pulmonary tuberculosis infections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeleye, Bamise; Chetty, Naven

    2017-12-01

    The preference for computed tomography (CT) for the clinical assessment of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) infections has increased the concern about the potential risk of cancer in exposed patients. In this study, we investigated the correlation between cancer risk and radiation doses from different CT scanners, assuming an equivalent scan protocol. Radiation doses from three 16-slice units were estimated using the CT-Expo dosimetry software version 2.4 and standard CT scan protocol for patients with suspected PTB infections. The lifetime risk of cancer for each scanner was determined using the methodology outlined in the BEIR VII report. Organ doses were significantly different (P < 0.05) between the scanners. The calculated effective dose for scanner H2 is 34% and 37% higher than scanners H3 and H1 respectively. A high and statistically significant correlation was observed between estimated lifetime cancer risk for both male (r2 = 0.943, P < 0.05) and female patients (r2 = 0.989, P < 0.05). The risk variation between the scanners was slightly higher than 2% for all ages but was much smaller for specific ages for male and female patients (0.2% and 0.7%, respectively). These variations provide an indication that the use of a scanner optimizing protocol is imperative.

  12. Automatic segmentation of triaxial accelerometry signals for falls risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Redmond, Stephen J; Scalzi, Maria Elena; Narayanan, Michael R; Lord, Stephen R; Cerutti, Sergio; Lovell, Nigel H

    2010-01-01

    Falls-related injuries in the elderly population represent one of the most significant contributors to rising health care expense in developed countries. In recent years, falls detection technologies have become more common. However, very few have adopted a preferable falls prevention strategy through unsupervised monitoring in the free-living environment. The basis of the monitoring described herein was a self-administered directed-routine (DR) comprising three separate tests measured by way of a waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. Using features extracted from the manually segmented signals, a reasonable estimate of falls risk can be achieved. We describe here a series of algorithms for automatically segmenting these recordings, enabling the use of the DR assessment in the unsupervised and home environments. The accelerometry signals, from 68 subjects performing the DR, were manually annotated by an observer. Using the proposed signal segmentation routines, an good agreement was observed between the manually annotated markers and the automatically estimated values. However, a decrease in the correlation with falls risk to 0.73 was observed using the automatic segmentation, compared to 0.81 when using markers manually placed by an observer.

  13. Calibration-free quantification of absolute oxygen saturation based on the dynamics of photoacoustic signals

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Jun; Danielli, Amos; Liu, Yan; Wang, Lidai; Maslov, Konstantin; Wang, Lihong V.

    2014-01-01

    Photoacoustic tomography (PAT) is a hybrid imaging technique that has broad preclinical and clinical applications. Based on the photoacoustic effect, PAT directly measures specific optical absorption, which is the product of the tissue-intrinsic optical absorption coefficient and the local optical fluence. Therefore, quantitative PAT, such as absolute oxygen saturation (sO2) quantification, requires knowledge of the local optical fluence, which can be estimated only through invasive measurements or sophisticated modeling of light transportation. In this work, we circumvent this requirement by taking advantage of the dynamics in sO2. The new method works when the sO2 transition can be simultaneously monitored with multiple wavelengths. For each wavelength, the ratio of photoacoustic amplitudes measured at different sO2 states is utilized. Using the ratio cancels the contribution from optical fluence and allows calibration-free quantification of absolute sO2. The new method was validated through both phantom and in vivo experiments. PMID:23903146

  14. The absolute magnitudes of RR Lyraes from HIPPARCOS parallaxes and proper motions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernley, J.; Barnes, T. G.; Skillen, I.; Hawley, S. L.; Hanley, C. J.; Evans, D. W.; Solano, E.; Garrido, R.

    1998-02-01

    We have used HIPPARCOS proper motions and the method of Statistical Parallax to estimate the absolute magnitude of RR Lyrae stars. In addition we used the HIPPARCOS parallax of RR Lyrae itself to determine it's absolute magnitude. These two results are in excellent agreement with each other and give a zero-point for the RR Lyrae M_v,[Fe/H] relation of 0.77+/-0.15 at [Fe/H]=-1.53. This zero-point is in good agreement with that obtained recently by several groups using Baade-Wesselink methods which, averaged over the results from the different groups, gives M_v = 0.73+/-0.14 at [Fe/H]=-1.53. Taking the HIPPARCOS based zero-point and a value of 0.18+/-0.03 for the slope of the M_v,[Fe/H] relation from the literature we find firstly, the distance modulus of the LMC is 18.26+/-0.15 and secondly, the mean age of the Globular Clusters is 17.4+/-3.0 GYrs. These values are compared with recent estimates based on other "standard candles" that have also been calibrated with HIPPARCOS data. It is clear that, in addition to astrophysical problems, there are also problems in the application of HIPPARCOS data that are not yet fully understood. Table 1, which contains the basic data for the RR Lyraes, is available only at CDS. It may be retrieved via anonymous FTP at cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via the Web at http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/Abstract.html

  15. Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.

    PubMed

    Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S

    2014-06-25

    The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2

  16. Estimated injury risk for specific injuries and body regions in frontal motor vehicle crashes.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Schoell, Samantha L; Swett, Katrina R; Stitzel, Joel D

    2015-01-01

    Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data. Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15-105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate. Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4-4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4

  17. Absolute configuration of a chiral CHD group via neutron diffraction: confirmation of the absolute stereochemistry of the enzymatic formation of malic acid

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bau, R.; Brewer, I.; Chiang, M.Y.

    Neutron diffraction has been used to monitor the absolute stereochemistry of an enzymatic reaction. (-)(2S)malic-3-d acid was prepared by the action of fumarase on fumaric acid in D/sub 2/O. After a large number of cations were screened, it was found that (+)(R)..cap alpha..-phenylethylamine forms the large crystals necessary for a neutron diffraction analysis. The subsequent structure determination showed that (+)(R)..cap alpha..-phenylethylammonium (-)(2S)malate-3-d has an absolute configuration of R at the CHD site. This result confirms the absolute stereochemistry of fumarate-to-malate transformation as catalyzed by the enzyme fumarase.

  18. Absolute Radiometric Calibration of the GÖKTÜRK-2 Satellite Sensor Using Tuz GÖLÜ (landnet Site) from Ndvi Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakarya, Ufuk; Hakkı Demirhan, İsmail; Seda Deveci, Hüsne; Teke, Mustafa; Demirkesen, Can; Küpçü, Ramazan; Feray Öztoprak, A.; Efendioğlu, Mehmet; Fehmi Şimşek, F.; Berke, Erdinç; Zübeyde Gürbüz, Sevgi

    2016-06-01

    TÜBİTAK UZAY has conducted a research study on the use of space-based satellite resources for several aspects of agriculture. Especially, there are two precision agriculture related projects: HASSAS (Widespread application of sustainable precision agriculture practices in Southeastern Anatolia Project Region (GAP) Project) and AKTAR (Smart Agriculture Feasibility Project). The HASSAS project aims to study development of precision agriculture practice in GAP region. Multi-spectral satellite imagery and aerial hyperspectral data along with ground measurements was collected to analyze data in an information system. AKTAR aims to develop models for irrigation, fertilization and spectral signatures of crops in Inner Anatolia. By the end of the project precision agriculture practices to control irrigation, fertilization, pesticide and estimation of crop yield will be developed. Analyzing the phenology of crops using NDVI is critical for the projects. For this reason, absolute radiometric calibration of the Red and NIR bands in space-based satellite sensors is an important issue. The Göktürk-2 satellite is an earth observation satellite which was designed and built in Turkey and was launched in 2012. The Göktürk-2 satellite sensor has a resolution 2.5 meters in panchromatic and 5 meters in R/G/B/NIR bands. The absolute radiometric calibration of the Göktürk-2 satellite sensor was performed via the ground-based measurements - spectra-radiometer, sun photometer, and meteorological station- in Tuz Gölü cal/val site in 2015. In this paper, the first ground-based absolute radiometric calibration results of the Göktürk-2 satellite sensor using Tuz Gölü is demonstrated. The absolute radiometric calibration results of this paper are compared with the published cross-calibration results of the Göktürk-2 satellite sensor utilizing Landsat 8 imagery. According to the experimental comparison results, the Göktürk-2 satellite sensor coefficients for red and NIR bands

  19. Estimation of Second Primary Cancer Risk After Treatment with Radioactive Iodine for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Corrêa, Nilton Lavatori; de Sá, Lidia Vasconcellos; de Mello, Rossana Corbo Ramalho

    2017-02-01

    An increase in the incidence of second primary cancers is the late effect of greatest concern that could occur in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients treated with radioactive iodine (RAI). The decision to treat a patient with RAI should therefore incorporate a careful risk-benefit analysis. The objective of this work was to adapt the risk-estimation models developed by the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee to local epidemiological characteristics in order to assess the carcinogenesis risk from radiation in a population of Brazilian DTC patients treated with RAI. Absorbed radiation doses in critical organs were also estimated to determine whether they exceeded the thresholds for deterministic effects. A total of 416 DTC patients treated with RAI were retrospectively studied. Four organs were selected for absorbed dose estimation and subsequent calculation of carcinogenic risk: the kidney, stomach, salivary glands, and bone marrow. Absorbed doses were calculated by dose factors (absorbed dose per unit activity administered) previously established and based on standard human models. The lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of incidence of cancer as a function of age, sex, and organ-specific dose was estimated, relating it to the activity of RAI administered in the initial treatment. The salivary glands received the greatest absorbed doses of radiation, followed by the stomach, kidney, and bone marrow. None of these, however, surpassed the threshold for deterministic effects for a single administration of RAI. Younger patients received the same level of absorbed dose in the critical organs as older patients did. The lifetime attributable risk for stomach cancer incidence was by far the highest, followed in descending order by salivary-gland cancer, leukemia, and kidney cancer. RAI in a single administration is safe in terms of deterministic effects because even high-administered activities do not result in absorbed doses that exceed the

  20. Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Norman, Rosana; Bradshaw, Debbie; Lewin, Simon; Cairncross, Eugene; Nannan, Nadine; Vos, Theo

    2010-01-01

    The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence

  1. A revised estimate of the risk of carcinogenesis from x-rays to scoliosis patients

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rao, P.S.; Gregg, E.C.

    A considerable amount of concern has been felt recently for the risk of carcinogenesis from x-rays to scoliosis patients. This paper re-evaluates risk in quantitative terms by using some data measured by us and other data recently published in the literature. The risks are considerably smaller than had been estimated earlier. Compared with the natural incidence of cancer in the general population, the cumulative additional risk for scoliosis patients varies from 0.2% for breast carcinoma to 5% for leukemia.

  2. Absolute calibration of sniffer probes on Wendelstein 7-X

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moseev, D.; Laqua, H. P.; Marsen, S.; Stange, T.; Braune, H.; Erckmann, V.; Gellert, F.; Oosterbeek, J. W.

    2016-08-01

    Here we report the first measurements of the power levels of stray radiation in the vacuum vessel of Wendelstein 7-X using absolutely calibrated sniffer probes. The absolute calibration is achieved by using calibrated sources of stray radiation and the implicit measurement of the quality factor of the Wendelstein 7-X empty vacuum vessel. Normalized absolute calibration coefficients agree with the cross-calibration coefficients that are obtained by the direct measurements, indicating that the measured absolute calibration coefficients and stray radiation levels in the vessel are valid. Close to the launcher, the stray radiation in the empty vessel reaches power levels up to 340 kW/m2 per MW injected beam power. Furthest away from the launcher, i.e., half a toroidal turn, still 90 kW/m2 per MW injected beam power is measured.

  3. Absolute calibration of sniffer probes on Wendelstein 7-X.

    PubMed

    Moseev, D; Laqua, H P; Marsen, S; Stange, T; Braune, H; Erckmann, V; Gellert, F; Oosterbeek, J W

    2016-08-01

    Here we report the first measurements of the power levels of stray radiation in the vacuum vessel of Wendelstein 7-X using absolutely calibrated sniffer probes. The absolute calibration is achieved by using calibrated sources of stray radiation and the implicit measurement of the quality factor of the Wendelstein 7-X empty vacuum vessel. Normalized absolute calibration coefficients agree with the cross-calibration coefficients that are obtained by the direct measurements, indicating that the measured absolute calibration coefficients and stray radiation levels in the vessel are valid. Close to the launcher, the stray radiation in the empty vessel reaches power levels up to 340 kW/m(2) per MW injected beam power. Furthest away from the launcher, i.e., half a toroidal turn, still 90 kW/m(2) per MW injected beam power is measured.

  4. Preparation of an oakmoss absolute with reduced allergenic potential.

    PubMed

    Ehret, C; Maupetit, P; Petrzilka, M; Klecak, G

    1992-06-01

    Synopsis Oakmoss absolute, an extract of the lichen Evernia prunastri, is known to cause allergenic skin reactions due to the presence of certain aromatic aldehydes such as atranorin, chloratranorin, ethyl hematommate and ethyl chlorohematommate. In this paper it is shown that treatment of Oakmoss absolute with amino acids such as lysine and/or leucine, lowers considerably the content of these allergenic constituents including atranol and chloratranol. The resulting Oakmoss absolute, which exhibits an excellent olfactive quality, was tested extensively in comparative studies on guinea pigs and on man. The results of the Guinea Pig Maximization Test (GPMT) and Human Repeated Insult Patch Test (HRIPT) indicate that, in comparison with the commercial test sample, the allergenicity of this new quality of Oakmoss absolute was considerably reduced, and consequently better skin tolerance of this fragrance for man was achieved.

  5. The Distinct Role of Comparative Risk Perceptions in a Breast Cancer Prevention Program

    PubMed Central

    Dillard, Amanda J.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Nair, Vijay; Derry, Holly A.; Zhang, Aijun; Pitsch, Rosemarie K.; Alford, Sharon Hensley; McClure, Jennifer B.; Fagerlin, Angela

    2013-01-01

    Background Comparative risk perceptions may rival other types of information in terms of effects on health behavior decisions. Purpose We examined associations between comparative risk perceptions, affect, and behavior while controlling for absolute risk perceptions and actual risk. Methods Women at an increased risk of breast cancer participated in a program to learn about tamoxifen which can reduce the risk of breast cancer. Women reported comparative risk perceptions of breast cancer and completed measures of anxiety, knowledge, and tamoxifen-related behavior intentions. Three months later, women reported their behavior. Results Comparative risk perceptions were positively correlated with anxiety, knowledge, intentions, and behavior three months later. After controlling for participants’ actual risk of breast cancer and absolute risk perceptions, comparative risk perceptions predicted anxiety and knowledge, but not intentions or behavior. Conclusions Comparative risk perceptions can affect patient outcomes like anxiety and knowledge independently of absolute risk perceptions and actual risk information. PMID:21698518

  6. A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

  7. Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study.

    PubMed

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R; Sever, Peter S; Colhoun, Helen M; Livingstone, Shona J; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L; Davis, Barry R; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L J

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Lipid Lowering Arm of the Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT-LLA) study (atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) were used for model derivation. The model was based on 8 clinical predictors including treatment allocation (statin/placebo). Ten-year individualized ARR on major cardiovascular events by statin therapy were calculated for each patient by subtracting the estimated on-treatment risk from the estimated off-treatment risk. Predicted 10-year ARR by statin therapy was <2% for 13% of the patients. About 30% had an ARR of >4% (median ARR, 3.2%; interquartile range, 2.5%-4.3%; 95% confidence interval for 3.2% ARR, -1.4% to 6.8%). Addition of treatment interactions did not improve model performance. Therefore, the wide distribution in ARR was a consequence of the underlying distribution in cardiovascular risk enrolled in these trials. External validation of the model was performed in data from the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT-LLT; pravastatin 40 mg versus usual care) and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS; atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) of 3878 and 2838 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Model calibration was adequate in both external data sets, discrimination was moderate (ALLHAT-LLT: c-statistics, 0.64 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.67] and CARDS: 0.68 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.72]). ARRs of major cardiovascular events by statin therapy can be accurately estimated for individual patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using a model based on routinely available patient characteristics. There is a wide distribution in ARR that

  8. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012

    PubMed Central

    Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

    2016-01-01

    Objectives In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. Methods We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Results Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. Conclusion The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed. PMID:26957669

  9. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012.

    PubMed

    Goldberg, Howard; Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

    2016-01-01

    In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed.

  10. Physics of negative absolute temperatures.

    PubMed

    Abraham, Eitan; Penrose, Oliver

    2017-01-01

    Negative absolute temperatures were introduced into experimental physics by Purcell and Pound, who successfully applied this concept to nuclear spins; nevertheless, the concept has proved controversial: a recent article aroused considerable interest by its claim, based on a classical entropy formula (the "volume entropy") due to Gibbs, that negative temperatures violated basic principles of statistical thermodynamics. Here we give a thermodynamic analysis that confirms the negative-temperature interpretation of the Purcell-Pound experiments. We also examine the principal arguments that have been advanced against the negative temperature concept; we find that these arguments are not logically compelling, and moreover that the underlying "volume" entropy formula leads to predictions inconsistent with existing experimental results on nuclear spins. We conclude that, despite the counterarguments, negative absolute temperatures make good theoretical sense and did occur in the experiments designed to produce them.

  11. Absolute detector-based spectrally tunable radiant source using digital micromirror device and supercontinuum fiber laser.

    PubMed

    Li, Zhigang; Wang, Xiaoxu; Zheng, Yuquan; Li, Futian

    2017-06-10

    High-accuracy absolute detector-based spectroradiometric calibration techniques traceable to cryogenic absolute radiometers have made progress rapidly in recent decades under the impetus of atmospheric quantitative spectral remote sensing. A high brightness spectrally tunable radiant source using a supercontinuum fiber laser and a digital micromirror device (DMD) has been developed to meet demands of spectroradiometric calibrations for ground-based, aeronautics-based, and aerospace-based remote sensing instruments and spectral simulations of natural scenes such as the sun and atmosphere. Using a supercontinuum fiber laser as a radiant source, the spectral radiance of the spectrally tunable radiant source is 20 times higher than the spectrally tunable radiant source using conventional radiant sources such as tungsten halogen lamps, xenon lamps, or LED lamps, and the stability is better than ±0.3%/h. Using a DMD, the spectrally tunable radiant source possesses two working modes. In narrow-band modes, it is calibrated by an absolute detector, and in broad-band modes, it can calibrate for remote sensing instrument. The uncertainty of the spectral radiance of the spectrally tunable radiant source is estimated at less than 1.87% at 350 nm to 0.85% at 750 nm, and compared to only standard lamp-based calibration, a greater improvement is gained.

  12. [Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

    PubMed

    López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

    2006-01-14

    To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

  13. Estimating intercellular surface tension by laser-induced cell fusion.

    PubMed

    Fujita, Masashi; Onami, Shuichi

    2011-12-01

    Intercellular surface tension is a key variable in understanding cellular mechanics. However, conventional methods are not well suited for measuring the absolute magnitude of intercellular surface tension because these methods require determination of the effective viscosity of the whole cell, a quantity that is difficult to measure. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating the intercellular surface tension at single-cell resolution. This method exploits the cytoplasmic flow that accompanies laser-induced cell fusion when the pressure difference between cells is large. Because the cytoplasmic viscosity can be measured using well-established technology, this method can be used to estimate the absolute magnitudes of tension. We applied this method to two-cell-stage embryos of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans and estimated the intercellular surface tension to be in the 30-90 µN m(-1) range. Our estimate was in close agreement with cell-medium surface tensions measured at single-cell resolution.

  14. Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

    PubMed Central

    Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

    2008-01-01

    Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

  15. Predictors of indoor absolute humidity and estimated effects on influenza virus survival in grade schools

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Low absolute humidity (AH) has been associated with increased influenza virus survival and transmissibility and the onset of seasonal influenza outbreaks. Humidification of indoor environments may mitigate viral transmission and may be an important control strategy, particularly in schools where viral transmission is common and contributes to the spread of influenza in communities. However, the variability and predictors of AH in the indoor school environment and the feasibility of classroom humidification to levels that could decrease viral survival have not been studied. Methods Automated sensors were used to measure temperature, humidity and CO2 levels in two Minnesota grade schools without central humidification during two successive winters. Outdoor AH measurements were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Variability in indoor AH within classrooms, between classrooms in the same school, and between schools was assessed using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). Predictors of indoor AH were examined using time-series Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models. Classroom humidifiers were used when school was not in session to assess the feasibility of increasing indoor AH to levels associated with decreased influenza virus survival, as projected from previously published animal experiments. Results AH varied little within classrooms (CCC >0.90) but was more variable between classrooms in the same school (CCC 0.81 for School 1, 0.88 for School 2) and between schools (CCC 0.81). Indoor AH varied widely during the winter (range 2.60 to 10.34 millibars [mb]) and was strongly associated with changes in outdoor AH (p < 0.001). Changes in indoor AH on school weekdays were strongly associated with CO2 levels (p < 0.001). Over 4 hours, classroom humidifiers increased indoor AH by 4 mb, an increase sufficient to decrease projected 1-hour virus survival by an absolute value of 30% during winter months

  16. Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Laurent, Olivier; Ancelet, Sophie; Richardson, David B; Hémon, Denis; Ielsch, Géraldine; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline; Laurier, Dominique

    2013-05-01

    Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards.

  17. Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H., E-mail: hpaganetti@mgh.harvard.edu

    2015-01-15

    ratio of absolute risks between two modalities is less sensitive to the uncertainties in the risk model and can provide statistically significant estimates.« less

  18. [Tobacco and plastic surgery: An absolute contraindication?

    PubMed

    Matusiak, C; De Runz, A; Maschino, H; Brix, M; Simon, E; Claudot, F

    2017-08-01

    Smoking increases perioperative risk regarding wound healing, infection rate and failure of microsurgical procedures. There is no present consensus about plastic and aesthetic surgical indications concerning smoking patients. The aim of our study is to analyze French plastic surgeons practices concerning smokers. A questionnaire was send by e-mail to French plastic surgeons in order to evaluate their own operative indications: patient information about smoking dangers, pre- and postoperative delay of smoking cessation, type of intervention carried out, smoking cessation supports, use of screening test and smoking limit associated to surgery refusing were studied. Statistical tests were used to compare results according to practitioner activity (liberal or public), own smoking habits and time of installation. In 148 questionnaires, only one surgeon did not explain smoking risk. Of the surgeons, 49.3% proposed smoking-cessation supports, more frequently with public practice (P=0.019). In total, 85.4% of surgeons did not use screening tests. Years of installation affected operative indication with smoking patients (P=0.02). Pre- and postoperative smoking cessation delay were on average respectively 4 and 3 weeks in accordance with literature. Potential improvements could be proposed to smoking patients' care: smoking cessation assistance, screening tests, absolute contraindication of some procedures or level of consumption to determine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  19. Preoperative Recipient Parameters Allow Early Estimation of Postoperative Outcome and Intraoperative Transfusion Requirements in Liver Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Schumacher, Carsten; Eismann, Hendrik; Sieg, Lion; Friedrich, Lars; Scheinichen, Dirk; Vondran, Florian W R; Johanning, Kai

    2018-01-01

    Liver transplantation is a complex intervention, and early anticipation of personnel and logistic requirements is of great importance. Early identification of high-risk patients could prove useful. We therefore evaluated prognostic values of recipient parameters commonly available in the early preoperative stage regarding postoperative 30- and 90-day outcomes and intraoperative transfusion requirements in liver transplantation. All adult patients undergoing first liver transplantation at Hannover Medical School between January 2005 and December 2010 were included in this retrospective study. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data as well as clinical courses were recorded. Prognostic values regarding 30- and 90-day outcomes were evaluated by uni- and multivariate statistical tests. Identified risk parameters were used to calculate risk scores. There were 426 patients (40.4% female) included with a mean age of 48.6 (11.9) years. Absolute 30-day mortality rate was 9.9%, and absolute 90-day mortality rate was 13.4%. Preoperative leukocyte count >5200/μL, platelet count <91 000/μL, and creatinine values ≥77 μmol/L were relevant risk factors for both observation periods ( P < .05, respectively). A score based on these factors significantly differentiated between groups of varying postoperative outcomes and intraoperative transfusion requirements ( P < .05, respectively). A score based on preoperative creatinine, leukocyte, and platelet values allowed early estimation of postoperative 30- and 90-day outcomes and intraoperative transfusion requirements in liver transplantation. Results might help to improve timely logistic and personal strategies.

  20. Galileo FOC Satellite Group Delay Estimation based on Raw Method and published IOV Metadata

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reckeweg, Florian; Schönemann, Erik; Springer, Tim; Enderle, Werner

    2017-04-01

    In December 2016, the European GNSS Agency (GSA) published the Galileo In-Orbit Validation (IOV) satellite metadata. These metadata include among others the so-called Galileo satellite group delays, which were measured in an absolute sense by the satellite manufacturer on-ground for all three Galileo frequency bands E1, E5 and E6. Therewith Galileo is the first Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) for which absolute calibration values for satellite on-board group delays have been published. The different satellite group delays for the three frequency bands lead to the fact that the signals will not be transmitted at exactly the same epoch. Up to now, due to the lack of absolute group delays, it is common practice in GNSS analyses to estimate and apply the differences of these satellite group delays, commonly known as differential code biases (DCBs). However, this has the drawback that the determination of the "raw" clock and the absolute ionosphere is not possible. The use of absolute bias calibrations for satellites and receivers is a major step into the direction of more realistic (in a physical sense) clock and atmosphere estimates. The Navigation Support Office at the European Space Operation Centre (ESOC) was from the beginning involved in the validation process of the Galileo metadata. For the work presented in this presentation we will use the absolute bias calibrations of the Galileo IOV satellites to estimate and validate the absolute receiver group delays of the ESOC GNSS network and vice versa. The receiver group delays have exemplarily been calibrated in a calibration campaign with an IFEN GNSS Signal-Simulator at ESOC. Based on the calibrated network, making use of the ionosphere constraints given by the IOV satellites, GNSS raw observations are processed to estimate satellite group delays for the operational Galileo (Full Operational Capability) FOC satellites. In addition, "raw" satellite clock offsets are estimated, which are free of the

  1. Absolute gravimetry for monitoring geodynamics in Greenland.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, E.; Strykowski, G.; Forsberg, R.

    2015-12-01

    Here are presented the preliminary results of the absolute gravity measurements done in Greenland by DTU Space with their A10 absolute gravimeter (the A10-019). The purpose, besides establishing and maintaining a national gravity network, is to study geodynamics.The absolute gravity measurements are juxtaposed with the permanent GNET GNSS stations. The first measurements were conducted in 2009 and a few sites have been re-visited. As of present is there a gravity value at 18 GNET sites.There are challenges in interpreting the measurements from Greenland and several signals has to be taken into account, besides the geodynamical signals originating from the changing load of the ice, there is also a clear signal of direct attraction from different masses. Here are presented the preliminary results of our measurements in Greenland and attempts explain them through modelling of the geodynamical signals and the direct attraction from the ocean and ice.

  2. Strongly nonlinear theory of rapid solidification near absolute stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kowal, Katarzyna N.; Altieri, Anthony L.; Davis, Stephen H.

    2017-10-01

    We investigate the nonlinear evolution of the morphological deformation of a solid-liquid interface of a binary melt under rapid solidification conditions near two absolute stability limits. The first of these involves the complete stabilization of the system to cellular instabilities as a result of large enough surface energy. We derive nonlinear evolution equations in several limits in this scenario and investigate the effect of interfacial disequilibrium on the nonlinear deformations that arise. In contrast to the morphological stability problem in equilibrium, in which only cellular instabilities appear and only one absolute stability boundary exists, in disequilibrium the system is prone to oscillatory instabilities and a second absolute stability boundary involving attachment kinetics arises. Large enough attachment kinetics stabilize the oscillatory instabilities. We derive a nonlinear evolution equation to describe the nonlinear development of the solid-liquid interface near this oscillatory absolute stability limit. We find that strong asymmetries develop with time. For uniform oscillations, the evolution equation for the interface reduces to the simple form f''+(βf')2+f =0 , where β is the disequilibrium parameter. Lastly, we investigate a distinguished limit near both absolute stability limits in which the system is prone to both cellular and oscillatory instabilities and derive a nonlinear evolution equation that captures the nonlinear deformations in this limit. Common to all these scenarios is the emergence of larger asymmetries in the resulting shapes of the solid-liquid interface with greater departures from equilibrium and larger morphological numbers. The disturbances additionally sharpen near the oscillatory absolute stability boundary, where the interface becomes deep-rooted. The oscillations are time-periodic only for small-enough initial amplitudes and their frequency depends on a single combination of physical parameters, including the

  3. Estimating risk and rate levels, ratios and differences in case-control studies.

    PubMed

    King, Gary; Zeng, Langche

    2002-05-30

    Classic (or 'cumulative') case-control sampling designs do not admit inferences about quantities of interest other than risk ratios, and then only by making the rare events assumption. Probabilities, risk differences and other quantities cannot be computed without knowledge of the population incidence fraction. Similarly, density (or 'risk set') case-control sampling designs do not allow inferences about quantities other than the rate ratio. Rates, rate differences, cumulative rates, risks, and other quantities cannot be estimated unless auxiliary information about the underlying cohort such as the number of controls in each full risk set is available. Most scholars who have considered the issue recommend reporting more than just risk and rate ratios, but auxiliary population information needed to do this is not usually available. We address this problem by developing methods that allow valid inferences about all relevant quantities of interest from either type of case-control study when completely ignorant of or only partially knowledgeable about relevant auxiliary population information.

  4. Absolute far-ultraviolet spectrophotometry of hot subluminous stars from Voyager

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holberg, J. B.; Ali, B.; Carone, T. E.; Polidan, R. S.

    1991-01-01

    Observations, obtained with the Voyager ultraviolet spectrometers, are presented of absolute fluxes for two well-known hot subluminous stars: BD + 28 deg 4211, an sdO, and G191 - B2B, a hot DA white dwarf. Complete absolute energy distributions for these two stars, from the Lyman limit at 912 A to 1 micron, are given. For BD + 28 deg 4211, a single power law closely represents the entire observed energy distribution. For G191 - B2B, a pure hydrogen model atmosphere provides an excellent match to the entire absolute energy distribution. Voyager absolute fluxes are discussed in relation to those reported from various sounding rocket experiments, including a recent rocket observation of BD + 28 deg 4211.

  5. Cryptosporidium and Giardia in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with domestic sewage: estimation of bathing-associated disease risks.

    PubMed

    Betancourt, Walter Q; Duarte, Diana C; Vásquez, Rosa C; Gurian, Patrick L

    2014-08-15

    Sewage is a major contributor to pollution problems involving human pathogens in tropical coastal areas. This study investigated the occurrence of intestinal protozoan parasites (Giardia and Cryptosporidium) in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with sewage. The potential risks of Cryptosporidium and Giardia infection from recreational water exposure were estimated from the levels of viable (oo) cysts (DIC+, DAPI+, PI-) found in near-shore swimming areas using an exponential dose response model. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was performed in order to determine the probability distribution of risks. Microbial indicators of recreational water quality (enterococci, Clostridium perfringens) and genetic markers of sewage pollution (human-specific Bacteroidales marker [HF183] and Clostridium coccoides) were simultaneously evaluated in order to estimate the extent of water quality deterioration associated with human wastes. The study revealed the potential risk of parasite infections via primary contact with tropical marine waters contaminated with sewage; higher risk estimates for Giardia than for Cryptosporidium were found. Mean risks estimated by Monte Carlo were below the U.S. EPA upper bound on recreational risk of 0.036 for cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis for both children and adults. However, 95th percentile estimates for giardiasis for children exceeded the 0.036 level. Environmental surveillance of microbial pathogens is crucial in order to control and eradicate the effects that increasing anthropogenic impacts have on marine ecosystems and human health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The use of absolute gravity data for the validation of Global Geopotential Models and for improving quasigeoid heights determined from satellite-only Global Geopotential Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godah, Walyeldeen; Krynski, Jan; Szelachowska, Malgorzata

    2018-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of absolute gravity data for the validation of Global Geopotential Models (GGMs). It is also aimed at improving quasigeoid heights determined from satellite-only GGMs using absolute gravity data. The area of Poland, as a unique one, covered with a homogeneously distributed set of absolute gravity data, has been selected as a study area. The gravity anomalies obtained from GGMs were validated using the corresponding ones determined from absolute gravity data. The spectral enhancement method was implemented to overcome the spectral inconsistency in data being validated. The quasigeoid heights obtained from the satellite-only GGM as well as from the satellite-only GGM in combination with absolute gravity data were evaluated with high accuracy GNSS/levelling data. Estimated accuracy of gravity anomalies obtained from GGMs investigated is of 1.7 mGal. Considering omitted gravity signal, e.g. from degree and order 101 to 2190, satellite-only GGMs can be validated at the accuracy level of 1 mGal using absolute gravity data. An improvement up to 59% in the accuracy of quasigeoid heights obtained from the satellite-only GGM can be observed when combining the satellite-only GGM with absolute gravity data.

  7. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  8. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Cancer.gov

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  9. The estimated risk for coronary heart disease and prevalence of dyslipidemia among workers of information technology industries in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Yang, Shao-Chi; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Tsai, Wei-I; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Chen, Ming-Fong

    2011-03-18

    Individuals working in information technology (IT) industries suffer from high work stress, possibly causing adverse impacts on their health. However, studies of cardiovascular risk factors among these workers are lacking. The aims of this study were to evaluate the estimated risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and prevalence of dyslipidemia among IT workers. A total of 941 employees from 11 IT companies were enrolled and the anthropometrics and serum lipid profiles were measured. The 10-year risk for CHD was calculated based on the Framingham risk score. Compared with lipid profiles in a representative sample (n=6589), IT workers had a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low level of HDL-C, and high level of LDL-C in each age group. Their overall estimated 10-year risk for CHD was higher than the average risk of an age- and gender-matched population (2.91% vs. 2.79%, p=0.027). Working for more than 10h/day was associated with a higher estimated CHD risk (3.62% vs. 2.54%, p<0.01). A higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia was noted among IT workers. Their estimated 10-year CHD risk was also higher than average. More aggressive interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in this population are needed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. From Hubble's NGSL to Absolute Fluxes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heap, Sara R.; Lindler, Don

    2012-01-01

    Hubble's Next Generation Spectral Library (NGSL) consists of R-l000 spectra of 374 stars of assorted temperature, gravity, and metallicity. Each spectrum covers the wavelength range, 0.18-1.00 microns. The library can be viewed and/or downloaded from the website, http://archive.stsci.edu/prepds/stisngsll. Stars in the NGSL are now being used as absolute flux standards at ground-based observatories. However, the uncertainty in the absolute flux is about 2%, which does not meet the requirements of dark-energy surveys. We are therefore developing an observing procedure that should yield fluxes with uncertainties less than 1 % and will take part in an HST proposal to observe up to 15 stars using this new procedure.

  11. Absolute calibration of optical flats

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    2005-04-05

    The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of absolute flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the absolute phase error of the optical flat is obtained.

  12. Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, M.; Schneider, U.

    2014-03-01

    Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

  13. Estimating pediatric general anesthesia exposure: Quantifying duration and risk.

    PubMed

    Bartels, Devan Darby; McCann, Mary Ellen; Davidson, Andrew J; Polaner, David M; Whitlock, Elizabeth L; Bateman, Brian T

    2018-05-02

    Understanding the duration of pediatric general anesthesia exposure in contemporary practice is important for identifying groups at risk for long general anesthesia exposures and designing trials examining associations between general anesthesia exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort analysis to estimate pediatric general anesthesia exposure duration during 2010-2015 using the National Anesthesia Clinical Outcomes Registry. A total of 1 548 021 pediatric general anesthetics were included. Median general anesthesia duration was 57 minutes (IQR: 28-86) with 90th percentile 145 minutes. Children aged <1 year had the longest median exposure duration (79 minutes, IQR: 39-119) with 90th percentile 210 minutes, and 13.7% of this very young cohort was exposed for >3 hours. High ASA physical status and care at a university hospital were associated with longer exposure times. While the vast majority (94%) of children undergoing general anesthesia are exposed for <3 hours, certain groups may be at increased risk for longer exposures. These findings may help guide the design of future trials aimed at understanding neurodevelopmental impact of prolonged exposure in these high-risk groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Blood pressure-lowering treatment based on cardiovascular risk: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

    PubMed

    2014-08-16

    We aimed to investigate whether the benefits of blood pressure-lowering drugs are proportional to baseline cardiovascular risk, to establish whether absolute risk could be used to inform treatment decisions for blood pressure-lowering therapy, as is recommended for lipid-lowering therapy. This meta-analysis included individual participant data from trials that randomly assigned patients to either blood pressure-lowering drugs or placebo, or to more intensive or less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. The primary outcome was total major cardiovascular events, consisting of stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. Participants were separated into four categories of baseline 5-year major cardiovascular risk using a risk prediction equation developed from the placebo groups of the included trials (<11%, 11-15%, 15-21%, >21%). 11 trials and 26 randomised groups met the inclusion criteria, and included 67,475 individuals, of whom 51,917 had available data for the calculation of the risk equations. 4167 (8%) had a cardiovascular event during a median of 4·0 years (IQR 3·4-4·4) of follow-up. The mean estimated baseline levels of 5-year cardiovascular risk for each of the four risk groups were 6·0% (SD 2·0), 12·1% (1·5), 17·7% (1·7), and 26·8% (5·4). In each consecutive higher risk group, blood pressure-lowering treatment reduced the risk of cardiovascular events relatively by 18% (95% CI 7-27), 15% (4-25), 13% (2-22), and 15% (5-24), respectively (p=0·30 for trend). However, in absolute terms, treating 1000 patients in each group with blood pressure-lowering treatment for 5 years would prevent 14 (95% CI 8-21), 20 (8-31), 24 (8-40), and 38 (16-61) cardiovascular events, respectively (p=0·04 for trend). Lowering blood pressure provides similar relative protection at all levels of baseline cardiovascular risk, but progressively greater absolute risk reductions as baseline risk increases. These results support the use of predicted

  15. Assessing the effect of public health information by incentivised risk estimation: An example on Swedish snus.

    PubMed

    Bergsvik, Daniel; Rogeberg, Ole

    2018-04-01

    The provision of accurate information on health damaging behaviours and products is a widely accepted and widespread governmental task. It is easily mismanaged. This study demonstrates a simple method which can help to evaluate whether such information corrects recipient risk beliefs. Participants assess risks numerically, before and after being exposed to a relevant risk communication. Accuracy is incentivised by awarding financial prizes to answers closest to a pursued risk belief. To illustrate this method, 228 students from the University of Oslo, Norway, were asked to estimate the mortality risk of Swedish snus and cigarettes twice, before and after being exposed to one of three risk communications with information on the health dangers of snus. The data allow us to measure how participants updated their risk beliefs after being exposed to different risk communications. Risk information from the government strongly distorted risk perceptions for snus. A newspaper article discussing the relative risks of cigarettes and snus reduced belief errors regarding snus risks, but increased belief errors regarding smoking. The perceived quality of the risk communication was not associated with decreased belief errors. Public health information can potentially make the public less informed on risks about harmful products or behaviours. This risk can be reduced by targeting identified, measurable belief errors and empirically assessing how alternative communications affect these. The proposed method of incentivised risk estimation might be helpful in future assessments of risk communications. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Probative value of absolute and relative judgments in eyewitness identification.

    PubMed

    Clark, Steven E; Erickson, Michael A; Breneman, Jesse

    2011-10-01

    It is well-accepted that eyewitness identification decisions based on relative judgments are less accurate than identification decisions based on absolute judgments. However, the theoretical foundation for this view has not been established. In this study relative and absolute judgments were compared through simulations of the WITNESS model (Clark, Appl Cogn Psychol 17:629-654, 2003) to address the question: Do suspect identifications based on absolute judgments have higher probative value than suspect identifications based on relative judgments? Simulations of the WITNESS model showed a consistent advantage for absolute judgments over relative judgments for suspect-matched lineups. However, simulations of same-foils lineups showed a complex interaction based on the accuracy of memory and the similarity relationships among lineup members.

  17. Lunar Cratering Chronology: Calibrating Degree of Freshness of Craters to Absolute Ages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trang, D.; Gillis-Davis, J.; Boyce, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    The use of impact craters to age-date surfaces of and/or geomorphological features on planetary bodies is a decades old practice. Various dating techniques use different aspects of impact craters in order to determine ages. One approach is based on the degree of freshness of primary-impact craters. This method examines the degradation state of craters through visual inspection of seven criteria: polygonality, crater ray, continuous ejecta, rim crest sharpness, satellite craters, radial channels, and terraces. These criteria are used to rank craters in order of age from 0.0 (oldest) to 7.0 (youngest). However, the relative decimal scale used in this technique has not been tied to a classification of absolute ages. In this work, we calibrate the degree of freshness to absolute ages through crater counting. We link the degree of freshness to absolute ages through crater counting of fifteen craters with diameters ranging from 5-22 km and degree of freshness from 6.3 to 2.5. We use the Terrain Camera data set on Kaguya to count craters on the continuous ejecta of each crater in our sample suite. Specifically, we divide the crater's ejecta blanket into quarters and count craters between the rim of the main crater out to one crater radii from the rim for two of the four sections. From these crater counts, we are able to estimate the absolute model age of each main crater using the Craterstats2 tool in ArcGIS. Next, we compare the degree of freshness for the crater count-derived age of our main craters to obtain a linear inverse relation that links these two metrics. So far, for craters with degree of freshness from 6.3 to 5.0, the linear regression has an R2 value of 0.7, which corresponds to a relative uncertainty of ×230 million years. At this point, this tool that links degree of freshness to absolute ages cannot be used with craters <8km because this class of crater degrades quicker than larger craters. A graphical solution exists for correcting the degree of

  18. Measurement of absolute lung volumes by imaging techniques.

    PubMed

    Clausen, J

    1997-10-01

    In this paper, the techniques available for estimating total lung capacities from standard chest radiographs in children and infants as well as adults are reviewed. These techniques include manual measurements using ellipsoid and planimetry techniques as well as computerized systems. Techniques are also available for making radiographic lung volume measurements from portable chest radiographs. There are inadequate data in the literature to support recommending one specific technique over another. Though measurements of lung volumes by radiographic, plethysmographic, gas dilution or washout techniques result in remarkably similar mean results when groups of normal subjects are tested, in patients with disease, the results of these different basic measurement techniques can differ significantly. Computed tomographic and magnetic resonance techniques can also be used to measure absolute lung volumes and offer the theoretical advantages that the results in individual subjects are less affected by variances of thoracic shape than are measurements made using conventional chest radiographs.

  19. REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

  20. Determination of Absolute Zero Using a Computer-Based Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Amrani, D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a simple computer-based laboratory experiment for evaluating absolute zero in degrees Celsius, which can be performed in college and undergraduate physical sciences laboratory courses. With a computer, absolute zero apparatus can help demonstrators or students to observe the relationship between temperature and pressure and use…