Sample records for abundance estimates based

  1. Estimating abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sutherland, Chris; Royle, Andy

    2016-01-01

    This chapter provides a non-technical overview of ‘closed population capture–recapture’ models, a class of well-established models that are widely applied in ecology, such as removal sampling, covariate models, and distance sampling. These methods are regularly adopted for studies of reptiles, in order to estimate abundance from counts of marked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. Thus, the chapter describes some classic closed population models for estimating abundance, with considerations for some recent extensions that provide a spatial context for the estimation of abundance, and therefore density. Finally, the chapter suggests some software for use in data analysis, such as the Windows-based program MARK, and provides an example of estimating abundance and density of reptiles using an artificial cover object survey of Slow Worms (Anguis fragilis).

  2. Estimating abundance: Chapter 27

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    This chapter provides a non-technical overview of ‘closed population capture–recapture’ models, a class of well-established models that are widely applied in ecology, such as removal sampling, covariate models, and distance sampling. These methods are regularly adopted for studies of reptiles, in order to estimate abundance from counts of marked individuals while accounting for imperfect detection. Thus, the chapter describes some classic closed population models for estimating abundance, with considerations for some recent extensions that provide a spatial context for the estimation of abundance, and therefore density. Finally, the chapter suggests some software for use in data analysis, such as the Windows-based program MARK, and provides an example of estimating abundance and density of reptiles using an artificial cover object survey of Slow Worms (Anguis fragilis).

  3. Abundance estimation and conservation biology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; MacKenzie, D.I.

    2004-01-01

    should be focused on relationships between demographic processes such as survival and recruitment, the two quantities responsible for changes in abundance, rather than simply on the magnitudes of these quantities. They describe a type of Jolly–Seber capture–recapture model that permits inference about the underlying relationship between per capita recruitment rates and survival rates (Link & Barker, this volume). Implementation used Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and appeared to work well, yielding inferences about the relationship between recruitment and survival that were robust to selection of prior distribution. We believe that readers will find their arguments compelling, and we expect to see increased use of hierarchical modeling approaches in capture–recapture and related fields. Otto (presentation without paper) also recommended use of hierarchical models in analysis of multiple data sources dealing with population dynamics of North American mallards. He integrated survival inferences from ringing data, abundance information from aerial survey data, and recruitment information based on age ratios from a harvest survey. He used a Leslie matrix population projection model as an integrating framework and obtained estimates of breeding population size using all data.Otto’s approach also permitted inference about biases in estimated quantities. As with the work of Link & Barker (2004), we find Otto’s recommendation to use hierarchical models to integrate data from multiple sources to be very compelling. Alisauskas et al. (2004) report results of an analysis of capture–recapture data for a askatchewan population of white–winged scoters. They used the approach of Pradel (1996) to estimate population growth rate (See the PDF) directly. Estimates for 1975–1985 were quite low, but estimates for the recent period, 2000–2003,increased to values > 1. Parameter estimates for seniority, survival and per capita recruitment (Pradel, 1996) led to the

  4. Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

    2015-05-01

    The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

  5. 2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

  6. Improving removal-based estimates of abundance by sampling a population of spatially distinct subpopulations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

    2005-01-01

     A statistical modeling framework is described for estimating the abundances of spatially distinct subpopulations of animals surveyed using removal sampling. To illustrate this framework, hierarchical models are developed using the Poisson and negative-binomial distributions to model variation in abundance among subpopulations and using the beta distribution to model variation in capture probabilities. These models are fitted to the removal counts observed in a survey of a federally endangered fish species. The resulting estimates of abundance have similar or better precision than those computed using the conventional approach of analyzing the removal counts of each subpopulation separately. Extension of the hierarchical models to include spatial covariates of abundance is straightforward and may be used to identify important features of an animal's habitat or to predict the abundance of animals at unsampled locations.

  7. Lincoln estimates of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance in North America.

    PubMed

    Alisauskas, Ray T; Arnold, Todd W; Leafloor, James O; Otis, David L; Sedinger, James S

    2014-01-01

    Estimates of range-wide abundance, harvest, and harvest rate are fundamental for sound inferences about the role of exploitation in the dynamics of free-ranging wildlife populations, but reliability of existing survey methods for abundance estimation is rarely assessed using alternative approaches. North American mallard populations have been surveyed each spring since 1955 using internationally coordinated aerial surveys, but population size can also be estimated with Lincoln's method using banding and harvest data. We estimated late summer population size of adult and juvenile male and female mallards in western, midcontinent, and eastern North America using Lincoln's method of dividing (i) total estimated harvest, [Formula: see text], by estimated harvest rate, [Formula: see text], calculated as (ii) direct band recovery rate, [Formula: see text], divided by the (iii) band reporting rate, [Formula: see text]. Our goal was to compare estimates based on Lincoln's method with traditional estimates based on aerial surveys. Lincoln estimates of adult males and females alive in the period June-September were 4.0 (range: 2.5-5.9), 1.8 (range: 0.6-3.0), and 1.8 (range: 1.3-2.7) times larger than respective aerial survey estimates for the western, midcontinent, and eastern mallard populations, and the two population estimates were only modestly correlated with each other (western: r = 0.70, 1993-2011; midcontinent: r = 0.54, 1961-2011; eastern: r = 0.50, 1993-2011). Higher Lincoln estimates are predictable given that the geographic scope of inference from Lincoln estimates is the entire population range, whereas sampling frames for aerial surveys are incomplete. Although each estimation method has a number of important potential biases, our review suggests that underestimation of total population size by aerial surveys is the most likely explanation. In addition to providing measures of total abundance, Lincoln's method provides estimates of fecundity and

  8. Palila abundance estimates and trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banko, Paul C.; Brink, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard

    2014-01-01

    The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2014 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2013 population was estimated at 1,492−2,132 birds (point estimate: 1,799) and the 2014 population was estimated at 1,697−2,508 (point estimate: 2,070). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2014, and there was no difference in their detection probability due to count sequence. This suggests that greater precision in population estimates can be achieved if future surveys include repeat visits. No palila were detected outside the core survey area in 2013 or 2014, suggesting that most if not all palila inhabit the western slope during the survey period. Since 2003, the size of the area containing all annual palila detections do not indicate a significant change among years, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.21). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have fluctuated moderately above the 2011 minimum (CV = 0.18). The average rate of decline during 1998−2014 was 167 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 16-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 68% decline in the population.

  9. Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.

    PubMed

    Belant, Jerrold L; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B; Beyer, Dean E

    2016-10-27

    Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.

  10. Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species

    PubMed Central

    Belant, Jerrold L.; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M.; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B.; Beyer, Dean E.

    2016-01-01

    Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170–551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species. PMID:27786283

  11. Estimating abundance in the presence of species uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chambert, Thierry A.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn; Davenport, Jon M.

    2016-01-01

    1.N-mixture models have become a popular method for estimating abundance of free-ranging animals that are not marked or identified individually. These models have been used on count data for single species that can be identified with certainty. However, co-occurring species often look similar during one or more life stages, making it difficult to assign species for all recorded captures. This uncertainty creates problems for estimating species-specific abundance and it can often limit life stages to which we can make inference. 2.We present a new extension of N-mixture models that accounts for species uncertainty. In addition to estimating site-specific abundances and detection probabilities, this model allows estimating probability of correct assignment of species identity. We implement this hierarchical model in a Bayesian framework and provide all code for running the model in BUGS-language programs. 3.We present an application of the model on count data from two sympatric freshwater fishes, the brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) and the ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), ad illustrate implementation of covariate effects (habitat characteristics). In addition, we used a simulation study to validate the model and illustrate potential sample size issues. We also compared, for both real and simulated data, estimates provided by our model to those obtained by a simple N-mixture model when captures of unknown species identification were discarded. In the latter case, abundance estimates appeared highly biased and very imprecise, while our new model provided unbiased estimates with higher precision. 4.This extension of the N-mixture model should be useful for a wide variety of studies and taxa, as species uncertainty is a common issue. It should notably help improve investigation of abundance and vital rate characteristics of organisms’ early life stages, which are sometimes more difficult to identify than adults.

  12. Evaluating abundance estimate precision and the assumptions of a count-based index for small mammals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiewel, A.S.; Adams, A.A.Y.; Rodda, G.H.

    2009-01-01

    Conservation and management of small mammals requires reliable knowledge of population size. We investigated precision of markrecapture and removal abundance estimates generated from live-trapping and snap-trapping data collected at sites on Guam (n 7), Rota (n 4), Saipan (n 5), and Tinian (n 3), in the Mariana Islands. We also evaluated a common index, captures per unit effort (CPUE), as a predictor of abundance. In addition, we evaluated cost and time associated with implementing live-trapping and snap-trapping and compared species-specific capture rates of selected live- and snap-traps. For all species, markrecapture estimates were consistently more precise than removal estimates based on coefficients of variation and 95 confidence intervals. The predictive utility of CPUE was poor but improved with increasing sampling duration. Nonetheless, modeling of sampling data revealed that underlying assumptions critical to application of an index of abundance, such as constant capture probability across space, time, and individuals, were not met. Although snap-trapping was cheaper and faster than live-trapping, the time difference was negligible when site preparation time was considered. Rattus diardii spp. captures were greatest in Haguruma live-traps (Standard Trading Co., Honolulu, HI) and Victor snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation, Lititz, PA), whereas Suncus murinus and Mus musculus captures were greatest in Sherman live-traps (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc., Tallahassee, FL) and Museum Special snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation). Although snap-trapping and CPUE may have utility after validation against more rigorous methods, validation should occur across the full range of study conditions. Resources required for this level of validation would likely be better allocated towards implementing rigorous and robust methods.

  13. Estimates of brown bear abundance on Kodiak Island, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnes, V.G.; Smith, R.B.

    1998-01-01

    During 1987-94 we used capture-mark-resight (CMR) methodology and rates of observation (bears/hour and bears/100 km2) of unmarked brown bears (Ursus arctos middendorffi) during intensive aerial surveys (IAS) to estimate abundance of brown bears on Kodiak Island and to establish a baseline for monitoring population trends. CMR estimates were obtained on 3 study areas; density ranged from 216-234 bears/1,000 km2 for independent animals and 292-342 bears/1,000 km2 including dependent offspring. Rates of observation during IAS ranged from 1.4-5.4 independent bears/hour and 2.9-18.0 independent bears/100 km2. Density estimates for independent bears on each IAS area were obtained by dividing mean number of bears observed during replicate surveys by estimated sightability (based on CMR-derived sightability in areas with similar habitat. Brown bear abundance on 21 geographic units of Kodiak Island and 3 nearby islands was estimated by extrapolation from CMR and IAS data using comparisons of habitat characteristics and sport harvest information. Population estimates for independent and total bears were 1,800 and 2,600. The CMR and IAS procedures offer alternative means, depending on management objective and available resources, of measuring population trend of brown bears on Kodiak Island.

  14. SP_Ace: Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boeche, C.; Grebel, E. K.

    2018-05-01

    SP_Ace (Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator) estimates the stellar parameters Teff, log g, [M/H], and elemental abundances. It employs 1D stellar atmosphere models in Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE). The code is highly automated and suitable for analyzing the spectra of large spectroscopic surveys with low or medium spectral resolution (R = 2000-20 000). A web service for calculating these values with the software is also available.

  15. Estimating sturgeon abundance in the Carolinas using side-scan sonar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flowers, H. Jared; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are one of the most threatened taxa worldwide, including species in North Carolina and South Carolina. Populations of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus in the Carolinas have been significantly reduced from historical levels by a combination of intense fishing and habitat loss. There is a need for estimates of current abundance, to describe status, and for estimates of historical abundance in order to provide realistic recovery goals. In this study we used N-mixture and distance models with data acquired from side-scan sonar surveys to estimate abundance of sturgeon in six major sturgeon rivers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Estimated abundances of sturgeon greater than 1 m TL in the Carolina distinct population segment (DPS) were 2,031 using the count model and 1,912 via the distance model. The Pee Dee River had the highest overall abundance of any river at 1,944 (count model) or 1,823 (distance model). These estimates do not account for sturgeon less than 1 m TL or occurring in riverine reaches not surveyed or in marine waters. Comparing the two models, the N-mixture model produced similar estimates using less data than the distance model with only a slight reduction of estimated precision.

  16. A collaborative approach for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ransom, Jason I.; Kaczensky, Petra; Lubow, Bruce C.; Ganbaatar, Oyunsaikhan; Altansukh, Nanjid

    2012-01-01

    Accurately estimating abundance of wildlife is critical for establishing effective conservation and management strategies. Aerial methodologies for estimating abundance are common in developed countries, but they are often impractical for remote areas of developing countries where many of the world's endangered and threatened fauna exist. The alternative terrestrial methodologies can be constrained by limitations on access, technology, and human resources, and have rarely been comprehensively conducted for large terrestrial mammals at landscape scales. We attempted to overcome these problems by incorporating local peoples into a simultaneous point count of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) across the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Paired observers collected abundance and covariate metrics at 50 observation points and we estimated population sizes using distance sampling theory, but also assessed individual observer error to examine potential bias introduced by the large number of minimally trained observers. We estimated 5671 (95% CI = 3611–8907) wild asses and 5909 (95% CI = 3762–9279) gazelle inhabited the 11,027 km2 study area at the time of our survey and found that the methodology developed was robust at absorbing the logistical challenges and wide range of observer abilities. This initiative serves as a functional model for estimating terrestrial wildlife abundance while integrating local people into scientific and conservation projects. This, in turn, creates vested interest in conservation by the people who are most influential in, and most affected by, the outcomes.

  17. Estimating Animal Abundance in Ground Beef Batches Assayed with Molecular Markers

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Xin-Sheng; Simila, Janika; Platz, Sindey Schueler; Moore, Stephen S.; Plastow, Graham; Meghen, Ciaran N.

    2012-01-01

    Estimating animal abundance in industrial scale batches of ground meat is important for mapping meat products through the manufacturing process and for effectively tracing the finished product during a food safety recall. The processing of ground beef involves a potentially large number of animals from diverse sources in a single product batch, which produces a high heterogeneity in capture probability. In order to estimate animal abundance through DNA profiling of ground beef constituents, two parameter-based statistical models were developed for incidence data. Simulations were applied to evaluate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a joint likelihood function from multiple surveys, showing superiority in the presence of high capture heterogeneity with small sample sizes, or comparable estimation in the presence of low capture heterogeneity with a large sample size when compared to other existing models. Our model employs the full information on the pattern of the capture-recapture frequencies from multiple samples. We applied the proposed models to estimate animal abundance in six manufacturing beef batches, genotyped using 30 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, from a large scale beef grinding facility. Results show that between 411∼1367 animals were present in six manufacturing beef batches. These estimates are informative as a reference for improving recall processes and tracing finished meat products back to source. PMID:22479559

  18. Multiple marker abundance profiling: combining selected reaction monitoring and data-dependent acquisition for rapid estimation of organelle abundance in subcellular samples

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hooper, Cornelia M.; Stevens, Tim J.; Saukkonen, Anna

    Measuring changes in protein or organelle abundance in the cell is an essential, but challenging aspect of cell biology. Frequently-used methods for determining organelle abundance typically rely on detection of a very few marker proteins, so are unsatisfactory. In silico estimates of protein abundances from publicly available protein spectra can provide useful standard abundance values but contain only data from tissue proteomes, and are not coupled to organelle localization data. A new protein abundance score, the normalized protein abundance scale (NPAS), expands on the number of scored proteins and the scoring accuracy of lower-abundance proteins in Arabidopsis. NPAS was combinedmore » with subcellular protein localization data, facilitating quantitative estimations of organelle abundance during routine experimental procedures. A suite of targeted proteomics markers for subcellular compartment markers was developed, enabling independent verification of in silico estimates for relative organelle abundance. Estimation of relative organelle abundance was found to be reproducible and consistent over a range of tissues and growth conditions. In silico abundance estimations and localization data have been combined into an online tool, multiple marker abundance profiling, available in the SUBA4 toolbox (http://suba.live).« less

  19. Multiple marker abundance profiling: combining selected reaction monitoring and data-dependent acquisition for rapid estimation of organelle abundance in subcellular samples

    DOE PAGES

    Hooper, Cornelia M.; Stevens, Tim J.; Saukkonen, Anna; ...

    2017-10-12

    Measuring changes in protein or organelle abundance in the cell is an essential, but challenging aspect of cell biology. Frequently-used methods for determining organelle abundance typically rely on detection of a very few marker proteins, so are unsatisfactory. In silico estimates of protein abundances from publicly available protein spectra can provide useful standard abundance values but contain only data from tissue proteomes, and are not coupled to organelle localization data. A new protein abundance score, the normalized protein abundance scale (NPAS), expands on the number of scored proteins and the scoring accuracy of lower-abundance proteins in Arabidopsis. NPAS was combinedmore » with subcellular protein localization data, facilitating quantitative estimations of organelle abundance during routine experimental procedures. A suite of targeted proteomics markers for subcellular compartment markers was developed, enabling independent verification of in silico estimates for relative organelle abundance. Estimation of relative organelle abundance was found to be reproducible and consistent over a range of tissues and growth conditions. In silico abundance estimations and localization data have been combined into an online tool, multiple marker abundance profiling, available in the SUBA4 toolbox (http://suba.live).« less

  20. Estimating site occupancy and abundance using indirect detection indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2005-01-01

    Knowledge of factors influencing animal distribution and abundance is essential in many areas of ecological research, management, and policy-making. Because common methods for modeling and estimating abundance (e.g., capture-recapture, distance sampling) are sometimes not practical for large areas or elusive species, indices are sometimes used as surrogate measures of abundance. We present an extension of the Royle and Nichols (2003) generalization of the MacKenzie et al. (2002) site-occupancy model that incorporates length of the sampling interval into the, model for detection probability. As a result, we obtain a modeling framework that shows how useful information can be extracted from a class of index methods we call indirect detection indices (IDIs). Examples of IDIs include scent station, tracking tube, snow track, tracking plate, and hair snare surveys. Our model is maximum likelihood, and it can be used to estimate site occupancy and model factors influencing patterns of occupancy and abundance in space. Under certain circumstances, it can also be used to estimate abundance. We evaluated model properties using Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate the method with tracking tube and scent station data. We believe this model will be a useful tool for determining factors that influence animal distribution and abundance.

  1. Mark-resight abundance estimation under incomplete identification of marked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McClintock, Brett T.; Hill, Jason M.; Fritz, Lowell; Chumbley, Kathryn; Luxa, Katie; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2014-01-01

    Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark–recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible.Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments.We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this time-consuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance

  2. Incorporating availability for detection in estimates of bird abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.; Marshall, M.R.; Mattice, J.A.; Brauning, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    Several bird-survey methods have been proposed that provide an estimated detection probability so that bird-count statistics can be used to estimate bird abundance. However, some of these estimators adjust counts of birds observed by the probability that a bird is detected and assume that all birds are available to be detected at the time of the survey. We marked male Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) and Grasshopper Sparrows (A. savannarum) and monitored their behavior during May-July 2002 and 2003 to estimate the proportion of time they were available for detection. We found that the availability of Henslow's Sparrows declined in late June to <10% for 5- or 10-min point counts when a male had to sing and be visible to the observer; but during 20 May-19 June, males were available for detection 39.1% (SD = 27.3) of the time for 5-min point counts and 43.9% (SD = 28.9) of the time for 10-min point counts (n = 54). We detected no temporal changes in availability for Grasshopper Sparrows, but estimated availability to be much lower for 5-min point counts (10.3%, SD = 12.2) than for 10-min point counts (19.2%, SD = 22.3) when males had to be visible and sing during the sampling period (n = 80). For distance sampling, we estimated the availability of Henslow's Sparrows to be 44.2% (SD = 29.0) and the availability of Grasshopper Sparrows to be 20.6% (SD = 23.5). We show how our estimates of availability can be incorporated in the abundance and variance estimators for distance sampling and modify the abundance and variance estimators for the double-observer method. Methods that directly estimate availability from bird counts but also incorporate detection probabilities need further development and will be important for obtaining unbiased estimates of abundance for these species.

  3. Concepts and practices: Estimating abundance of prey species using hierarchical model-based approaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert; Kumar, N. Samba; Royle, Andy; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

    2017-01-01

    Tigers predominantly prey on large ungulate species, such as sambar (Cervus unicolor), red deer (Cervus elaphus), gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), chital (Axis axis), muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak), wild pig (Sus scrofa), and bearded pig (Sus barbatus). The density of a tiger population is strongly correlated with the density of such prey species (Karanth et al. 2004). In the absence of direct hunting of tigers, abundance of prey in an area is the key determinant of the “carrying capacity” of that area for tigers (Chap. 2). Accurate estimates of prey abundance are often needed to assess the potential number of tigers a conservation area can support.

  4. EMSAR: estimation of transcript abundance from RNA-seq data by mappability-based segmentation and reclustering.

    PubMed

    Lee, Soohyun; Seo, Chae Hwa; Alver, Burak Han; Lee, Sanghyuk; Park, Peter J

    2015-09-03

    RNA-seq has been widely used for genome-wide expression profiling. RNA-seq data typically consists of tens of millions of short sequenced reads from different transcripts. However, due to sequence similarity among genes and among isoforms, the source of a given read is often ambiguous. Existing approaches for estimating expression levels from RNA-seq reads tend to compromise between accuracy and computational cost. We introduce a new approach for quantifying transcript abundance from RNA-seq data. EMSAR (Estimation by Mappability-based Segmentation And Reclustering) groups reads according to the set of transcripts to which they are mapped and finds maximum likelihood estimates using a joint Poisson model for each optimal set of segments of transcripts. The method uses nearly all mapped reads, including those mapped to multiple genes. With an efficient transcriptome indexing based on modified suffix arrays, EMSAR minimizes the use of CPU time and memory while achieving accuracy comparable to the best existing methods. EMSAR is a method for quantifying transcripts from RNA-seq data with high accuracy and low computational cost. EMSAR is available at https://github.com/parklab/emsar.

  5. Estimating snow leopard population abundance using photography and capture-recapture techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, R.M.; Roe, J.D.; Wangchuk, R.; Hunter, D.O.

    2006-01-01

    Conservation and management of snow leopards (Uncia uncia) has largely relied on anecdotal evidence and presence-absence data due to their cryptic nature and the difficult terrain they inhabit. These methods generally lack the scientific rigor necessary to accurately estimate population size and monitor trends. We evaluated the use of photography in capture-mark-recapture (CMR) techniques for estimating snow leopard population abundance and density within Hemis National Park, Ladakh, India. We placed infrared camera traps along actively used travel paths, scent-sprayed rocks, and scrape sites within 16- to 30-km2 sampling grids in successive winters during January and March 2003-2004. We used head-on, oblique, and side-view camera configurations to obtain snow leopard photographs at varying body orientations. We calculated snow leopard abundance estimates using the program CAPTURE. We obtained a total of 66 and 49 snow leopard captures resulting in 8.91 and 5.63 individuals per 100 trap-nights during 2003 and 2004, respectively. We identified snow leopards based on the distinct pelage patterns located primarily on the forelimbs, flanks, and dorsal surface of the tail. Capture probabilities ranged from 0.33 to 0.67. Density estimates ranged from 8.49 (SE = 0.22; individuals per 100 km2 in 2003 to 4.45 (SE = 0.16) in 2004. We believe the density disparity between years is attributable to different trap density and placement rather than to an actual decline in population size. Our results suggest that photographic capture-mark-recapture sampling may be a useful tool for monitoring demographic patterns. However, we believe a larger sample size would be necessary for generating a statistically robust estimate of population density and abundance based on CMR models.

  6. Palila abundance estimates and trend

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richad; Banko, Paul C.

    2012-01-01

    The Palila (Loxioides bailleui) is an endangered, seed-eating, finch-billed honeycreeper found only on Hawai`i Island. Once occurring on the islands of Kaua`i and O`ahu and Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes of Hawai`i, Palila are now found only in subalpine, dry-forest habitats on Mauna Kea (Banko et al. 2002). Previous analyses showed that Palila numbers fluctuated throughout the 1980s and 1990s but declined rapidly and steadily since 2003 (Jacobi et al. 1996, Leonard et al. 2008, Banko et al. 2009, Gorresen et al. 2009, Banko et al. in press). The aim of this report is to update abundance estimates for the Palila based on the 2012 surveys. We assess Palila trends over two periods: 1) the long-term trend during 1998–2012 and 2) the short-term trajectory between 2003 and 2012. The first period evaluates the population trend for the entire time series since additional transects were established (Johnson et al. 2006). These additional transects were established to produce a more precise population estimate and provide more complete coverage of the Palila range. The initial year for short-term trajectory was chosen subjectively to coincide with the recent decline in the Palila population. Additionally, stations in the core Palila habitat were surveyed on two occasions in 2012, thus allowing us to address the question of how repeat samples improve estimate precision.

  7. Using counts to simultaneously estimate abundance and detection probabilities in a salamander community

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodd, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.

    2004-01-01

    A critical variable in both ecological and conservation field studies is determining how many individuals of a species are present within a defined sampling area. Labor intensive techniques such as capture-mark-recapture and removal sampling may provide estimates of abundance, but there are many logistical constraints to their widespread application. Many studies on terrestrial and aquatic salamanders use counts as an index of abundance, assuming that detection remains constant while sampling. If this constancy is violated, determination of detection probabilities is critical to the accurate estimation of abundance. Recently, a model was developed that provides a statistical approach that allows abundance and detection to be estimated simultaneously from spatially and temporally replicated counts. We adapted this model to estimate these parameters for salamanders sampled over a six vear period in area-constrained plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Estimates of salamander abundance varied among years, but annual changes in abundance did not vary uniformly among species. Except for one species, abundance estimates were not correlated with site covariates (elevation/soil and water pH, conductivity, air and water temperature). The uncertainty in the estimates was so large as to make correlations ineffectual in predicting which covariates might influence abundance. Detection probabilities also varied among species and sometimes among years for the six species examined. We found such a high degree of variation in our counts and in estimates of detection among species, sites, and years as to cast doubt upon the appropriateness of using count data to monitor population trends using a small number of area-constrained survey plots. Still, the model provided reasonable estimates of abundance that could make it useful in estimating population size from count surveys.

  8. Camera traps and activity signs to estimate wild boar density and derive abundance indices.

    PubMed

    Massei, Giovanna; Coats, Julia; Lambert, Mark Simon; Pietravalle, Stephane; Gill, Robin; Cowan, Dave

    2018-04-01

    Populations of wild boar and feral pigs are increasing worldwide, in parallel with their significant environmental and economic impact. Reliable methods of monitoring trends and estimating abundance are needed to measure the effects of interventions on population size. The main aims of this study, carried out in five English woodlands were: (i) to compare wild boar abundance indices obtained from camera trap surveys and from activity signs; and (ii) to assess the precision of density estimates in relation to different densities of camera traps. For each woodland, we calculated a passive activity index (PAI) based on camera trap surveys, rooting activity and wild boar trails on transects, and estimated absolute densities based on camera trap surveys. PAIs obtained using different methods showed similar patterns. We found significant between-year differences in abundance of wild boar using PAIs based on camera trap surveys and on trails on transects, but not on signs of rooting on transects. The density of wild boar from camera trap surveys varied between 0.7 and 7 animals/km 2 . Increasing the density of camera traps above nine per km 2 did not increase the precision of the estimate of wild boar density. PAIs based on number of wild boar trails and on camera trap data appear to be more sensitive to changes in population size than PAIs based on signs of rooting. For wild boar densities similar to those recorded in this study, nine camera traps per km 2 are sufficient to estimate the mean density of wild boar. © 2017 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. Efficient estimation of abundance for patchily distributed populations via two-phase, adaptive sampling.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conroy, M.J.; Runge, J.P.; Barker, R.J.; Schofield, M.R.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.

    2008-01-01

    Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance for patchily distributed populations. In the first phase, occupancy is estimated by binomial detection samples taken on all selected sites, where selection may be of all sites available, or a random sample of sites. Detection can be by visual surveys, detection of sign, physical captures, or other approach. At the second phase, if a detection threshold is achieved, CMR or other intensive sampling is conducted via standard procedures (grids or webs) to estimate abundance. Detection and CMR data are then used in a joint likelihood to model probability of detection in the occupancy sample via an abundance-detection model. CMR modeling is used to estimate abundance for the abundance-detection relationship, which in turn is used to predict abundance at the remaining sites, where only detection data are collected. We present a full Bayesian modeling treatment of this problem, in which posterior inference on abundance and other parameters (detection, capture probability) is obtained under a variety of assumptions about spatial and individual sources of heterogeneity. We apply the approach to abundance estimation for two species of voles (Microtus spp.) in Montana, USA. We also use a simulation study to evaluate the frequentist properties of our procedure given known patterns in abundance and detection among sites as well as design criteria. For most population characteristics and designs considered, bias and mean-square error (MSE) were low, and coverage of true parameter values by Bayesian credibility intervals was near nominal. Our two-phase, adaptive approach allows efficient estimation of

  10. Generalized estimators of avian abundance from count survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    I consider modeling avian abundance from spatially referenced bird count data collected according to common protocols such as capture?recapture, multiple observer, removal sampling and simple point counts. Small sample sizes and large numbers of parameters have motivated many analyses that disregard the spatial indexing of the data, and thus do not provide an adequate treatment of spatial structure. I describe a general framework for modeling spatially replicated data that regards local abundance as a random process, motivated by the view that the set of spatially referenced local populations (at the sample locations) constitute a metapopulation. Under this view, attention can be focused on developing a model for the variation in local abundance independent of the sampling protocol being considered. The metapopulation model structure, when combined with the data generating model, define a simple hierarchical model that can be analyzed using conventional methods. The proposed modeling framework is completely general in the sense that broad classes of metapopulation models may be considered, site level covariates on detection and abundance may be considered, and estimates of abundance and related quantities may be obtained for sample locations, groups of locations, unsampled locations. Two brief examples are given, the first involving simple point counts, and the second based on temporary removal counts. Extension of these models to open systems is briefly discussed.

  11. Evaluating noninvasive genetic sampling techniques to estimate large carnivore abundance.

    PubMed

    Mumma, Matthew A; Zieminski, Chris; Fuller, Todd K; Mahoney, Shane P; Waits, Lisette P

    2015-09-01

    Monitoring large carnivores is difficult because of intrinsically low densities and can be dangerous if physical capture is required. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) is a safe and cost-effective alternative to physical capture. We evaluated the utility of two NGS methods (scat detection dogs and hair sampling) to obtain genetic samples for abundance estimation of coyotes, black bears and Canada lynx in three areas of Newfoundland, Canada. We calculated abundance estimates using program capwire, compared sampling costs, and the cost/sample for each method relative to species and study site, and performed simulations to determine the sampling intensity necessary to achieve abundance estimates with coefficients of variation (CV) of <10%. Scat sampling was effective for both coyotes and bears and hair snags effectively sampled bears in two of three study sites. Rub pads were ineffective in sampling coyotes and lynx. The precision of abundance estimates was dependent upon the number of captures/individual. Our simulations suggested that ~3.4 captures/individual will result in a < 10% CV for abundance estimates when populations are small (23-39), but fewer captures/individual may be sufficient for larger populations. We found scat sampling was more cost-effective for sampling multiple species, but suggest that hair sampling may be less expensive at study sites with limited road access for bears. Given the dependence of sampling scheme on species and study site, the optimal sampling scheme is likely to be study-specific warranting pilot studies in most circumstances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Accuracy or precision: Implications of sample design and methodology on abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kowalewski, Lucas K.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Powell, Larkin A.; Pope, Kevin L.; Pegg, Mark A.

    2015-01-01

    Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N-mixture models. Many sample units of small area provided estimates that were consistently closer to true abundance than sample scenarios with few sample units of large area. However, sample scenarios with few sample units of large area provided more precise abundance estimates than abundance estimates derived from sample scenarios with many sample units of small area. It is important to consider accuracy and precision of abundance estimates during the sample design process with study goals and objectives fully recognized, although and with consequence, consideration of accuracy and precision of abundance estimates is often an afterthought that occurs during the data analysis process.

  13. Validation of abundance estimates from mark–recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Dunham, Jason B.

    2005-01-01

    Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln - Peterson mark - recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams. For one-, two-, three-, and four-pass sampling effort in closed sites, we evaluated the influences of fish size and habitat characteristics on sampling efficiency and the accuracy of removal abundance estimates. We also examined the use of models to generate unbiased estimates of fish abundance through adjustment of total catch or biased removal estimates. Our results suggested that the assumptions of the mark - recapture model were satisfied and that abundance estimates based on this approach were unbiased. In contrast, the removal model assumptions were not met. Decreasing sampling efficiencies over removal passes resulted in underestimated population sizes and overestimates of sampling efficiency. This bias decreased, but was not eliminated, with increased sampling effort. Biased removal estimates based on different levels of effort were highly correlated with each other but were less correlated with unbiased mark - recapture estimates. Stream size decreased sampling efficiency, and stream size and instream wood increased the negative bias of removal estimates. We found that reliable estimates of population abundance could be obtained from models of sampling efficiency for different levels of effort. Validation of abundance estimates requires extra attention to routine sampling considerations but can help fisheries biologists avoid pitfalls associated with biased data and facilitate standardized comparisons among studies that employ different sampling methods.

  14. An evaluation of multipass electrofishing for estimating the abundance of stream-dwelling salmonids

    Treesearch

    James T. Peterson; Russell F. Thurow; John W. Guzevich

    2004-01-01

    Failure to estimate capture efficiency, defined as the probability of capturing individual fish, can introduce a systematic error or bias into estimates of fish abundance. We evaluated the efficacy of multipass electrofishing removal methods for estimating fish abundance by comparing estimates of capture efficiency from multipass removal estimates to capture...

  15. Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest

    PubMed Central

    Ellison, Aaron M.; Jackson, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m2 and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could

  16. Estimating abundance of adult striped bass in reservoirs using mobile hydroacoustics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hightower, Joseph E.; Taylor, J. Christopher; Degan, Donald J.

    2013-01-01

    Hydroacoustic surveys have proven valuable for estimating reservoir forage fish abundance but are more challenging for adult predators such as striped bass Morone saxatilis. Difficulties in assessing striped bass in reservoirs include their low density and the inability to distinguish species with hydroacoustic data alone. Despite these difficulties, mobile hydroacoustic surveys have potential to provide useful data for management because of the large sample volume compared to traditional methods such as gill netting and the ability to target specific areas where striped bass are aggregated. Hydroacoustic estimates of reservoir striped bass have been made using mobile surveys, with data analysis using a threshold for target strength in order to focus on striped bass-sized targets, and auxiliary sampling with nets to obtain species composition. We provide recommendations regarding survey design, based in part on simulations that provide insight on the level of effort that would be required to achieve reasonable estimates of abundance. Future surveys may be able to incorporate telemetry or other sonar techniques such as side-scan or multibeam in order to focus survey efforts on productive habitats (within lake and vertically). However, species apportionment will likely remain the main source of error, and we see no hydroacoustic system on the horizon that will identify fish by species at the spatial and temporal scale required for most reservoir surveys. In situations where species composition can be reliably assessed using traditional gears, abundance estimates from hydroacoustic methods should be useful to fishery managers interested in developing harvest regulations, assessing survival of stocked juveniles, identifying seasonal aggregations, and examining predator–prey balance.

  17. Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability

  18. Horvitz-Thompson survey sample methods for estimating large-scale animal abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Garton, E.O.

    1994-01-01

    Large-scale surveys to estimate animal abundance can be useful for monitoring population status and trends, for measuring responses to management or environmental alterations, and for testing ecological hypotheses about abundance. However, large-scale surveys may be expensive and logistically complex. To ensure resources are not wasted on unattainable targets, the goals and uses of each survey should be specified carefully and alternative methods for addressing these objectives always should be considered. During survey design, the impoflance of each survey error component (spatial design, propofiion of detected animals, precision in detection) should be considered carefully to produce a complete statistically based survey. Failure to address these three survey components may produce population estimates that are inaccurate (biased low), have unrealistic precision (too precise) and do not satisfactorily meet the survey objectives. Optimum survey design requires trade-offs in these sources of error relative to the costs of sampling plots and detecting animals on plots, considerations that are specific to the spatial logistics and survey methods. The Horvitz-Thompson estimators provide a comprehensive framework for considering all three survey components during the design and analysis of large-scale wildlife surveys. Problems of spatial and temporal (especially survey to survey) heterogeneity in detection probabilities have received little consideration, but failure to account for heterogeneity produces biased population estimates. The goal of producing unbiased population estimates is in conflict with the increased variation from heterogeneous detection in the population estimate. One solution to this conflict is to use an MSE-based approach to achieve a balance between bias reduction and increased variation. Further research is needed to develop methods that address spatial heterogeneity in detection, evaluate the effects of temporal heterogeneity on survey

  19. Efficacy of time-lapse photography and repeated counts abundance estimation for white-tailed deer populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keever, Allison; McGowan, Conor P.; Ditchkoff, Stephen S.; Acker, S.A.; Grand, James B.; Newbolt, Chad H.

    2017-01-01

    Automated cameras have become increasingly common for monitoring wildlife populations and estimating abundance. Most analytical methods, however, fail to account for incomplete and variable detection probabilities, which biases abundance estimates. Methods which do account for detection have not been thoroughly tested, and those that have been tested were compared to other methods of abundance estimation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of the N-mixture method, which explicitly incorporates detection probability, to monitor white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) by using camera surveys and a known, marked population to collect data and estimate abundance. Motion-triggered camera surveys were conducted at Auburn University’s deer research facility in 2010. Abundance estimates were generated using N-mixture models and compared to the known number of marked deer in the population. We compared abundance estimates generated from a decreasing number of survey days used in analysis and by time periods (DAY, NIGHT, SUNRISE, SUNSET, CREPUSCULAR, ALL TIMES). Accurate abundance estimates were generated using 24 h of data and nighttime only data. Accuracy of abundance estimates increased with increasing number of survey days until day 5, and there was no improvement with additional data. This suggests that, for our system, 5-day camera surveys conducted at night were adequate for abundance estimation and population monitoring. Further, our study demonstrates that camera surveys and N-mixture models may be a highly effective method for estimation and monitoring of ungulate populations.

  20. Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance.

    PubMed

    Clement, Matthew J; Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew

    2017-09-01

    If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data

  1. Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clement, Matthew J.; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2017-01-01

    If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data

  2. Estimating the abundance of mouse populations of known size: promises and pitfalls of new methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, P.B.; Arthur, A.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Singleton, G.R.

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of animal abundance is fundamental to many ecological studies. Frequently, researchers cannot determine true abundance, and so must estimate it using a method such as mark-recapture or distance sampling. Recent advances in abundance estimation allow one to model heterogeneity with individual covariates or mixture distributions and to derive multimodel abundance estimators that explicitly address uncertainty about which model parameterization best represents truth. Further, it is possible to borrow information on detection probability across several populations when data are sparse. While promising, these methods have not been evaluated using mark?recapture data from populations of known abundance, and thus far have largely been overlooked by ecologists. In this paper, we explored the utility of newly developed mark?recapture methods for estimating the abundance of 12 captive populations of wild house mice (Mus musculus). We found that mark?recapture methods employing individual covariates yielded satisfactory abundance estimates for most populations. In contrast, model sets with heterogeneity formulations consisting solely of mixture distributions did not perform well for several of the populations. We show through simulation that a higher number of trapping occasions would have been necessary to achieve good estimator performance in this case. Finally, we show that simultaneous analysis of data from low abundance populations can yield viable abundance estimates.

  3. Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

    PubMed

    Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

    2018-04-01

    Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a

  4. New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

  5. Estimating occupancy and abundance using aerial images with imperfect detection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Bower, Michael R.

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution and abundance are critical population characteristics for efficient management, conservation, and ecological insight. Point process models are a powerful tool for modelling distribution and abundance, and can incorporate many data types, including count data, presence-absence data, and presence-only data. Aerial photographic images are a natural tool for collecting data to fit point process models, but aerial images do not always capture all animals that are present at a site. Methods for estimating detection probability for aerial surveys usually include collecting auxiliary data to estimate the proportion of time animals are available to be detected.We developed an approach for fitting point process models using an N-mixture model framework to estimate detection probability for aerial occupancy and abundance surveys. Our method uses multiple aerial images taken of animals at the same spatial location to provide temporal replication of sample sites. The intersection of the images provide multiple counts of individuals at different times. We examined this approach using both simulated and real data of sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) in Glacier Bay National Park, southeastern Alaska.Using our proposed methods, we estimated detection probability of sea otters to be 0.76, the same as visual aerial surveys that have been used in the past. Further, simulations demonstrated that our approach is a promising tool for estimating occupancy, abundance, and detection probability from aerial photographic surveys.Our methods can be readily extended to data collected using unmanned aerial vehicles, as technology and regulations permit. The generality of our methods for other aerial surveys depends on how well surveys can be designed to meet the assumptions of N-mixture models.

  6. Estimating parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron from heterogenous data sources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Young, Robert J.; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Mullett, Katherine M.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

    2003-01-01

    The Great Lakes Fishery Commission uses time series of transformer, parasitic, and spawning population estimates to evaluate the effectiveness of its sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program. This study used an inverse variance weighting method to integrate Lake Huron sea lamprey population estimates derived from two estimation procedures: 1) prediction of the lake-wide spawning population from a regression model based on stream size and, 2) whole-lake mark and recapture estimates. In addition, we used a re-sampling procedure to evaluate the effect of trading off sampling effort between the regression and mark-recapture models. Population estimates derived from the regression model ranged from 132,000 to 377,000 while mark-recapture estimates of marked recently metamorphosed juveniles and parasitic sea lampreys ranged from 536,000 to 634,000 and 484,000 to 1,608,000, respectively. The precision of the estimates varied greatly among estimation procedures and years. The integrated estimate of the mark-recapture and spawner regression procedures ranged from 252,000 to 702,000 transformers. The re-sampling procedure indicated that the regression model is more sensitive to reduction in sampling effort than the mark-recapture model. Reliance on either the regression or mark-recapture model alone could produce misleading estimates of abundance of sea lampreys and the effect of the control program on sea lamprey abundance. These analyses indicate that the precision of the lakewide population estimate can be maximized by re-allocating sampling effort from marking sea lampreys to trapping additional streams.

  7. Occupancy as a surrogate for abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.

    2004-01-01

    In many monitoring programmes it may be prohibitively expensive to estimate the actual abundance of a bird species in a defined area, particularly at large spatial scales, or where birds occur at very low densities. Often it may be appropriate to consider the proportion of area occupied by the species as an alternative state variable. However, as with abundance estimation, issues of detectability must be taken into account in order to make accurate inferences: the non?detection of the species does not imply the species is genuinely absent. Here we review some recent modelling developments that permit unbiased estimation of the proportion of area occupied, colonization and local extinction probabilities. These methods allow for unequal sampling effort and enable covariate information on sampling locations to be incorporated. We also describe how these models could be extended to incorporate information from marked individuals, which would enable finer questions of population dynamics (such as turnover rate of nest sites by specific breeding pairs) to be addressed. We believe these models may be applicable to a wide range of bird species and may be useful for investigating various questions of ecological interest. For example, with respect to habitat quality, we might predict that a species is more likely to have higher local extinction probabilities, or higher turnover rates of specific breeding pairs, in poor quality habitats.

  8. A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

    2015-01-01

    While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

  9. Optimal sampling design for estimating spatial distribution and abundance of a freshwater mussel population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pooler, P.S.; Smith, D.R.

    2005-01-01

    We compared the ability of simple random sampling (SRS) and a variety of systematic sampling (SYS) designs to estimate abundance, quantify spatial clustering, and predict spatial distribution of freshwater mussels. Sampling simulations were conducted using data obtained from a census of freshwater mussels in a 40 X 33 m section of the Cacapon River near Capon Bridge, West Virginia, and from a simulated spatially random population generated to have the same abundance as the real population. Sampling units that were 0.25 m 2 gave more accurate and precise abundance estimates and generally better spatial predictions than 1-m2 sampling units. Systematic sampling with ???2 random starts was more efficient than SRS. Estimates of abundance based on SYS were more accurate when the distance between sampling units across the stream was less than or equal to the distance between sampling units along the stream. Three measures for quantifying spatial clustering were examined: Hopkins Statistic, the Clumping Index, and Morisita's Index. Morisita's Index was the most reliable, and the Hopkins Statistic was prone to false rejection of complete spatial randomness. SYS designs with units spaced equally across and up stream provided the most accurate predictions when estimating the spatial distribution by kriging. Our research indicates that SYS designs with sampling units equally spaced both across and along the stream would be appropriate for sampling freshwater mussels even if no information about the true underlying spatial distribution of the population were available to guide the design choice. ?? 2005 by The North American Benthological Society.

  10. A robust design mark-resight abundance estimator allowing heterogeneity in resighting probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.; Burnham, K.P.

    2006-01-01

    This article introduces the beta-binomial estimator (BBE), a closed-population abundance mark-resight model combining the favorable qualities of maximum likelihood theory and the allowance of individual heterogeneity in sighting probability (p). The model may be parameterized for a robust sampling design consisting of multiple primary sampling occasions where closure need not be met between primary occasions. We applied the model to brown bear data from three study areas in Alaska and compared its performance to the joint hypergeometric estimator (JHE) and Bowden's estimator (BOWE). BBE estimates suggest heterogeneity levels were non-negligible and discourage the use of JHE for these data. Compared to JHE and BOWE, confidence intervals were considerably shorter for the AICc model-averaged BBE. To evaluate the properties of BBE relative to JHE and BOWE when sample sizes are small, simulations were performed with data from three primary occasions generated under both individual heterogeneity and temporal variation in p. All models remained consistent regardless of levels of variation in p. In terms of precision, the AICc model-averaged BBE showed advantages over JHE and BOWE when heterogeneity was present and mean sighting probabilities were similar between primary occasions. Based on the conditions examined, BBE is a reliable alternative to JHE or BOWE and provides a framework for further advances in mark-resight abundance estimation. ?? 2006 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

  11. Using paired visual and passive acoustic surveys to estimate passive acoustic detection parameters for harbor porpoise abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, Eiren K; Forney, Karin A; Barlow, Jay

    2017-01-01

    Passive acoustic monitoring is a promising approach for monitoring long-term trends in harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance. Before passive acoustic monitoring can be implemented to estimate harbor porpoise abundance, information about the detectability of harbor porpoise is needed to convert recorded numbers of echolocation clicks to harbor porpoise densities. In the present study, paired data from a grid of nine passive acoustic click detectors (C-PODs, Chelonia Ltd., United Kingdom) and three days of simultaneous aerial line-transect visual surveys were collected over a 370 km 2 study area. The focus of the study was estimating the effective detection area of the passive acoustic sensors, which was defined as the product of the sound production rate of individual animals and the area within which those sounds are detected by the passive acoustic sensors. Visually estimated porpoise densities were used as informative priors in a Bayesian model to solve for the effective detection area for individual harbor porpoises. This model-based approach resulted in a posterior distribution of the effective detection area of individual harbor porpoises consistent with previously published values. This technique is a viable alternative for estimating the effective detection area of passive acoustic sensors when other experimental approaches are not feasible.

  12. Nonlinear Spectral Mixture Modeling to Estimate Water-Ice Abundance of Martian Regolith

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyalay, Szilard; Chu, Kathryn; Zeev Noe Dobrea, Eldar

    2017-10-01

    We present a novel technique to estimate the abundance of water-ice in the Martian permafrost using Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager multispectral data. In previous work, Cull et al. (2010) estimated the abundance of water-ice in trenches dug by the Mars Phoenix lander by modeling the spectra of the icy regolith using the radiative transfer methods described in Hapke (2008) with optical constants for Mauna Kea palagonite (Clancy et al., 1995) as a substitute for unknown Martian regolith optical constants. Our technique, which uses the radiative transfer methods described in Shkuratov et al. (1999), seeks to eliminate the uncertainty that stems from not knowing the composition of the Martian regolith by using observations of the Martian soil before and after the water-ice has sublimated away. We use observations of the desiccated regolith sample to estimate its complex index of refraction from its spectrum. This removes any a priori assumptions of Martian regolith composition, limiting our free parameters to the estimated real index of refraction of the dry regolith at one specific wavelength, ice grain size, and regolith porosity. We can then model mixtures of regolith and water-ice, fitting to the original icy spectrum to estimate the ice abundance. To constrain the uncertainties in this technique, we performed laboratory measurements of the spectra of known mixtures of water-ice and dry soils as well as those of soils after desiccation with controlled viewing geometries. Finally, we applied the technique to Phoenix Surface Stereo Imager observations and estimated water-ice abundances consistent with pore-fill in the near-surface ice. This abundance is consistent with atmospheric diffusion, which has implications to our understanding of the history of water-ice on Mars and the role of the regolith at high latitudes as a reservoir of atmospheric H2O.

  13. Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

    PubMed

    Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

  14. A new device to estimate abundance of moist-soil plant seeds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Penny, E.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

    2006-01-01

    Methods to sample the abundance of moist-soil seeds efficiently and accurately are critical for evaluating management practices and determining food availability. We adapted a portable, gasoline-powered vacuum to estimate abundance of seeds on the surface of a moist-soil wetland in east-central Mississippi and evaluated the sampler by simulating conditions that researchers and managers may experience when sampling moist-soil areas for seeds. We measured the percent recovery of known masses of seeds by the vacuum sampler in relation to 4 experimentally controlled factors (i.e., seed-size class, sample mass, soil moisture class, and vacuum time) with 2-4 levels per factor. We also measured processing time of samples in the laboratory. Across all experimental factors, seed recovery averaged 88.4% and varied little (CV = 0.68%, n = 474). Overall, mean time to process a sample was 30.3 ? 2.5 min (SE, n = 417). Our estimate of seed recovery rate (88%) may be used to adjust estimates for incomplete seed recovery, or project-specific correction factors may be developed by investigators. Our device was effective for estimating surface abundance of moist-soil plant seeds after dehiscence and before habitats were flooded.

  15. Comparison of methods for estimating bird abundance and trends from historical count data

    Treesearch

    Frank R. Thompson; Frank A. La Sorte

    2008-01-01

    The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches...

  16. Techniques and methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys in Great Lakes tributaries, 1995 to 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Christie, Gavin C.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Fodale, Michael F.; Heinrich, John W.; Quinlan, Henry R.; Weise, Jerry G.; Weisser, John W.; Young, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Before 1995, Great Lakes streams were selected for lampricide treatment based primarily on qualitative measures of the relative abundance of larval sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus. New integrated pest management approaches required standardized quantitative measures of sea lamprey. This paper evaluates historical larval assessment techniques and data and describes how new standardized methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys were developed and implemented. These new methods have been used to estimate larval and metamorphosed sea lamprey abundance in about 100 Great Lakes streams annually and to rank them for lampricide treatment since 1995. Implementation of these methods has provided a quantitative means of selecting streams for treatment based on treatment cost and estimated production of metamorphosed sea lampreys, provided managers with a tool to estimate potential recruitment of sea lampreys to the Great Lakes and the ability to measure the potential consequences of not treating streams, resulting in a more justifiable allocation of resources. The empirical data produced can also be used to simulate the impacts of various control scenarios.

  17. An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Esslinger, George G.; Bower, Michael R.; Hefley, Trevor J.

    2017-01-01

    Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska.

  18. Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total

  19. Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

    2012-01-01

    Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and

  20. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Dorazio, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar - and often identical - inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  1. Google Haul Out: Earth Observation Imagery and Digital Aerial Surveys in Coastal Wildlife Management and Abundance Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Moxley, Jerry H.; Bogomolni, Andrea; Hammill, Mike O.; Moore, Kathleen M. T.; Polito, Michael J.; Sette, Lisa; Sharp, W. Brian; Waring, Gordon T.; Gilbert, James R.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Johnston, David W.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract As the sampling frequency and resolution of Earth observation imagery increase, there are growing opportunities for novel applications in population monitoring. New methods are required to apply established analytical approaches to data collected from new observation platforms (e.g., satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles). Here, we present a method that estimates regional seasonal abundances for an understudied and growing population of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in southeastern Massachusetts, using opportunistic observations in Google Earth imagery. Abundance estimates are derived from digital aerial survey counts by adapting established correction-based analyses with telemetry behavioral observation to quantify survey biases. The result is a first regional understanding of gray seal abundance in the northeast US through opportunistic Earth observation imagery and repurposed animal telemetry data. As species observation data from Earth observation imagery become more ubiquitous, such methods provide a robust, adaptable, and cost-effective solution to monitoring animal colonies and understanding species abundances. PMID:29599542

  2. Google Haul Out: Earth Observation Imagery and Digital Aerial Surveys in Coastal Wildlife Management and Abundance Estimation.

    PubMed

    Moxley, Jerry H; Bogomolni, Andrea; Hammill, Mike O; Moore, Kathleen M T; Polito, Michael J; Sette, Lisa; Sharp, W Brian; Waring, Gordon T; Gilbert, James R; Halpin, Patrick N; Johnston, David W

    2017-08-01

    As the sampling frequency and resolution of Earth observation imagery increase, there are growing opportunities for novel applications in population monitoring. New methods are required to apply established analytical approaches to data collected from new observation platforms (e.g., satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles). Here, we present a method that estimates regional seasonal abundances for an understudied and growing population of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in southeastern Massachusetts, using opportunistic observations in Google Earth imagery. Abundance estimates are derived from digital aerial survey counts by adapting established correction-based analyses with telemetry behavioral observation to quantify survey biases. The result is a first regional understanding of gray seal abundance in the northeast US through opportunistic Earth observation imagery and repurposed animal telemetry data. As species observation data from Earth observation imagery become more ubiquitous, such methods provide a robust, adaptable, and cost-effective solution to monitoring animal colonies and understanding species abundances.

  3. A comparison of abundance estimates from extended batch-marking and Jolly–Seber-type experiments

    PubMed Central

    Cowen, Laura L E; Besbeas, Panagiotis; Morgan, Byron J T; Schwarz, Carl J

    2014-01-01

    Little attention has been paid to the use of multi-sample batch-marking studies, as it is generally assumed that an individual's capture history is necessary for fully efficient estimates. However, recently, Huggins et al. (2010) present a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-sample batch-marking study where they used estimating equations to solve for survival and capture probabilities and then derived abundance estimates using a Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator. We have developed and maximized the likelihood for batch-marking studies. We use data simulated from a Jolly–Seber-type study and convert this to what would have been obtained from an extended batch-marking study. We compare our abundance estimates obtained from the Crosbie–Manly–Arnason–Schwarz (CMAS) model with those of the extended batch-marking model to determine the efficiency of collecting and analyzing batch-marking data. We found that estimates of abundance were similar for all three estimators: CMAS, Huggins, and our likelihood. Gains are made when using unique identifiers and employing the CMAS model in terms of precision; however, the likelihood typically had lower mean square error than the pseudo-likelihood method of Huggins et al. (2010). When faced with designing a batch-marking study, researchers can be confident in obtaining unbiased abundance estimators. Furthermore, they can design studies in order to reduce mean square error by manipulating capture probabilities and sample size. PMID:24558576

  4. An integrated data model to estimate spatiotemporal occupancy, abundance, and colonization dynamics.

    PubMed

    Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B; Womble, Jamie N; Esslinger, George G; Bower, Michael R; Hefley, Trevor J

    2017-02-01

    Ecological invasions and colonizations occur dynamically through space and time. Estimating the distribution and abundance of colonizing species is critical for efficient management or conservation. We describe a statistical framework for simultaneously estimating spatiotemporal occupancy and abundance dynamics of a colonizing species. Our method accounts for several issues that are common when modeling spatiotemporal ecological data including multiple levels of detection probability, multiple data sources, and computational limitations that occur when making fine-scale inference over a large spatiotemporal domain. We apply the model to estimate the colonization dynamics of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay, in southeastern Alaska. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  5. Filling a void: abundance estimation of North American populations of arctic geese using hunter recoveries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alisauskas, R.T.; Drake, K.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    We consider use of recoveries of marked birds harvested by hunters, in conjunction with continental harvest estimates, for drawing inferences about continental abundance of a select number of goose species. We review assumptions of this method, a version of the Lincoln?Petersen approach, and consider its utility as a tool for making decisions about harvest management in comparison to current sources of information. Finally, we compare such estimates with existing count data, photographic estimates, or other abundance estimates. In most cases, Lincoln estimates are far higher than abundances assumed or perhaps accepted by many waterfowl biologists and managers. Nevertheless, depending on the geographic scope of inference, we suggest that this approach for abundance estimation of arctic geese may have usefulness for retrospective purposes or to assist with harvest management decisions for some species. Lincoln?s estimates may be as close or closer to truth than count, index, or photo data, and can be used with marking efforts currently in place for estimation of survival and harvest rates. Although there are bias issues associated with estimates of both harvest and harvest rate, some of the latter can be addressed with proper allocation of marks to spatially structured populations if subpopulations show heterogeneity in harvest rates.

  6. Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar – and often identical – inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

  7. Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

    Treesearch

    Robin E. Russell; J. Andrew Royle; Richard Desimone; Michael K. Schwartz; Victoria L. Edwards; Kristy P. Pilgrim; Kevin S. McKelvey

    2012-01-01

    Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management...

  8. Refined Estimates of Carbon Abundances for Carbon-Enhanced Metal-Poor Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, S.; Placco, V. M.; Beers, T. C.; Marsteller, B.; Kennedy, C. R.; Sivarani, T.; Masseron, T.; Plez, B.

    2008-03-01

    We present results from a refined set of procedures for estimation of the metallicities ([Fe/H]) and carbon abundance ratios ([C/Fe]) based on a much larger sample of calibration objects (on the order of 500 stars) then were available to Rossi et al. (2005), due to a dramatic increase in the number of stars with measurements obtained from high-resolution analyses in the past few years. We compare results obtained from a new calibration of the KP and GP indices with that obtained from a custom set of spectral synthesis based on MOOG. In cases where the GP index approaches saturation, it is clear that only spectral synthesis achieve reliable results.

  9. Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River.

    PubMed

    Friedenberg, Nicholas A; Hoover, Jan Jeffrey; Boysen, Krista; Killgore, K Jack

    2018-04-01

    Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark-recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12-year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model-averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5-15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6-8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0-9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil-recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. Estimating population size with correlated sampling unit estimates

    Treesearch

    David C. Bowden; Gary C. White; Alan B. Franklin; Joseph L. Ganey

    2003-01-01

    Finite population sampling theory is useful in estimating total population size (abundance) from abundance estimates of each sampled unit (quadrat). We develop estimators that allow correlated quadrat abundance estimates, even for quadrats in different sampling strata. Correlated quadrat abundance estimates based on mark–recapture or distance sampling methods occur...

  11. Estimating abundances of interacting species using morphological traits, foraging guilds, and habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Connor, Edward F.

    2014-01-01

    We developed a statistical model to estimate the abundances of potentially interacting species encountered while conducting point-count surveys at a set of ecologically relevant locations - as in a metacommunity of species. In the model we assume that abundances of species with similar traits (e.g., body size) are potentially correlated and that these correlations, when present, may exist among all species or only among functionally related species (such as members of the same foraging guild). We also assume that species-specific abundances vary among locations owing to systematic and stochastic sources of heterogeneity. For example, if abundances differ among locations due to differences in habitat, then measures of habitat may be included in the model as covariates. Naturally, the quantitative effects of these covariates are assumed to differ among species. Our model also accounts for the effects of detectability on the observed counts of each species. This aspect of the model is especially important for rare or uncommon species that may be difficult to detect in community-level surveys. Estimating the detectability of each species requires sampling locations to be surveyed repeatedly using different observers or different visits of a single observer. As an illustration, we fitted models to species-specific counts of birds obtained while sampling an avian community during the breeding season. In the analysis we examined whether species abundances appeared to be correlated due to similarities in morphological measures (body mass, beak length, tarsus length, wing length, tail length) and whether these correlations existed among all species or only among species of the same foraging guild. We also used the model to estimate the effects of forested area on species abundances and the effects of sound power output (as measured by body size) on species detection probabilities.

  12. Consideraciones para la estimacion de abundancia de poblaciones de mamiferos. [Considerations for the estimation of abundance of mammal populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, R.S.; Novare, A.J.; Nichols, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Estimation of abundance of mammal populations is essential for monitoring programs and for many ecological investigations. The first step for any study of variation in mammal abundance over space or time is to define the objectives of the study and how and why abundance data are to be used. The data used to estimate abundance are count statistics in the form of counts of animals or their signs. There are two major sources of uncertainty that must be considered in the design of the study: spatial variation and the relationship between abundance and the count statistic. Spatial variation in the distribution of animals or signs may be taken into account with appropriate spatial sampling. Count statistics may be viewed as random variables, with the expected value of the count statistic equal to the true abundance of the population multiplied by a coefficient p. With direct counts, p represents the probability of detection or capture of individuals, and with indirect counts it represents the rate of production of the signs as well as their probability of detection. Comparisons of abundance using count statistics from different times or places assume that the p are the same for all times or places being compared (p= pi). In spite of considerable evidence that this assumption rarely holds true, it is commonly made in studies of mammal abundance, as when the minimum number alive or indices based on sign counts are used to compare abundance in different habitats or times. Alternatives to relying on this assumption are to calibrate the index used by testing the assumption of p= pi, or to incorporate the estimation of p into the study design.

  13. Repeated count surveys help standardize multi-agency estimates of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetter, Nathan J.; Gardner, Beth; Schweitzer, Sara H.; Boettcher, Ruth; Wilke, Alexandra L.; Addison, Lindsay; Swilling, William R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

    2015-01-01

    The extensive breeding range of many shorebird species can make integration of survey data problematic at regional spatial scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of standardized repeated count surveys coordinated across 8 agencies to estimate the abundance of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) breeding pairs in the southeastern United States. Breeding season surveys were conducted across coastal North Carolina (90 plots) and the Eastern Shore of Virginia (3 plots). Plots were visited on 1–5 occasions during April–June 2013. N-mixture models were used to estimate abundance and detection probability in relation to survey date, tide stage, plot size, and plot location (coastal bay vs. barrier island). The estimated abundance of oystercatchers in the surveyed area was 1,048 individuals (95% credible interval: 851–1,408) and 470 pairs (384–637), substantially higher than estimates that did not account for detection probability (maximum counts of 674 individuals and 316 pairs). Detection probability was influenced by a quadratic function of survey date, and increased from mid-April (~0.60) to mid-May (~0.80), then remained relatively constant through June. Detection probability was also higher during high tide than during low, rising, or falling tides. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were validated at 13 plots by exhaustive productivity studies (2–5 surveys wk−1). Intensive productivity studies identified 78 breeding pairs across 13 productivity plots while the N-mixture model abundance estimate was 74 pairs (62–119) using only 1–5 replicated surveys season−1. Our results indicate that standardized replicated count surveys coordinated across multiple agencies and conducted during a relatively short time window (closure assumption) provide tremendous potential to meet both agency-level (e.g., state) and regional-level (e.g., flyway) objectives in large-scale shorebird monitoring programs.

  14. Estimating abundance and density of Amur tigers along the Sino-Russian border.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Wenhong; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Miquelle, Dale G; Hebblewhite, Mark; Goldberg, Joshua F; Robinson, Hugh S; Zhao, Xiaodan; Zhou, Bo; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-07-01

    As an apex predator the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) could play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystems in Northeast Asia. Due to habitat loss and harvest over the past century, tigers rapidly declined in China and are now restricted to the Russian Far East and bordering habitat in nearby China. To facilitate restoration of the tiger in its historical range, reliable estimates of population size are essential to assess effectiveness of conservation interventions. Here we used camera trap data collected in Hunchun National Nature Reserve from April to June 2013 and 2014 to estimate tiger density and abundance using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods. A minimum of 8 individuals were detected in both sample periods and the documentation of marking behavior and reproduction suggests the presence of a resident population. Using Bayesian SECR modeling within the 11 400 km(2) state space, density estimates were 0.33 and 0.40 individuals/100 km(2) in 2013 and 2014, respectively, corresponding to an estimated abundance of 38 and 45 animals for this transboundary Sino-Russian population. In a maximum likelihood framework, we estimated densities of 0.30 and 0.24 individuals/100 km(2) corresponding to abundances of 34 and 27, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. These density estimates are comparable to other published estimates for resident Amur tiger populations in the Russian Far East. This study reveals promising signs of tiger recovery in Northeast China, and demonstrates the importance of connectivity between the Russian and Chinese populations for recovering tigers in Northeast China. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  15. Abundance of adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polylphemus) in Delaware Bay estimated from a bay-wide mark-recapture study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, D.R.; Millard, M.J.; Eyler, S.

    2006-01-01

    Estimates of the abundance of American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are important to determine egg production and to manage populations for the energetic needs of shorebirds that feed on horseshoe crab eggs. In 2003, over 17,500 horseshoe crabs were tagged and released throughout Delaware Bay, and recaptured crabs came from spawning surveys that were conducted during peak spawning. We used two release cohorts to test for a temporary effect of tagging on spawning behavior and we adjusted the number of releases according to relocation rates from a telemetry study. The abundance estimate was 20 million horseshoe crabs (90% confidence interval: 13-28 million), of which 6.25 million (90% CI: 4.0-8.8 million) were females. The combined harvest rate for Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland in 2003 was 4% (90% CI: 3-6%) of the abundance estimate. Over-wintering of adults in Delaware Bay could explain, in part, differences in estimates from ocean-trawl surveys. Based on fecundity of 88,000 eggs per female, egg production was 5.5??1011 (90% CI: 3.5??1011, 7.7??1011), but egg availability for shorebirds also depended on overlap between horseshoe crab and shorebird migrations, density-dependent bioturbation, and wave-mediated vertical transport.

  16. Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates.

    PubMed

    Dudgeon, Christine L; Pollock, Kenneth H; Braccini, J Matias; Semmens, Jayson M; Barnett, Adam

    2015-07-01

    Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

  17. Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: Limitations and alternatives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, W.L.

    2003-01-01

    Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled stream units. Violations of these assumptions may produce suspect results. To determine possible sources of the assumption violations, I used data on the abundance of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss from Hankin and Reeves' (1988) in a simulation composed of 50,000 repeated, stratified systematic random samples from a spatially clustered distribution. The simulation was used to investigate effects of a range of removal estimates, from 75% to 100% of true fish abundance, on overall stream fish population estimates. The effects of various categories of removal-estimates-to-snorkel-count correlation levels (r = 0.75-1.0) on fish population estimates were also explored. Simulation results indicated that Hankin and Reeves' approach may produce poor results unless removal estimates exceed at least 85% of the true number of fish within sampled units and unless correlations between removal estimates and snorkel counts are at least 0.90. A potential modification to Hankin and Reeves' approach is the inclusion of environmental covariates that affect detection rates of fish into the removal model or other mark-recapture model. A potential alternative approach is to use snorkeling combined with line transect sampling to estimate fish densities within stream units. As with any method of population estimation, a pilot study should be conducted to evaluate its usefulness, which requires a known (or nearly so) population of fish to serve as a benchmark for evaluating bias and precision of estimators.

  18. A multimodal detection model of dolphins to estimate abundance validated by field experiments.

    PubMed

    Akamatsu, Tomonari; Ura, Tamaki; Sugimatsu, Harumi; Bahl, Rajendar; Behera, Sandeep; Panda, Sudarsan; Khan, Muntaz; Kar, S K; Kar, C S; Kimura, Satoko; Sasaki-Yamamoto, Yukiko

    2013-09-01

    Abundance estimation of marine mammals requires matching of detection of an animal or a group of animal by two independent means. A multimodal detection model using visual and acoustic cues (surfacing and phonation) that enables abundance estimation of dolphins is proposed. The method does not require a specific time window to match the cues of both means for applying mark-recapture method. The proposed model was evaluated using data obtained in field observations of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins, as examples of dispersed and condensed distributions of animals, respectively. The acoustic detection probability was approximately 80%, 20% higher than that of visual detection for both species, regardless of the distribution of the animals in present study sites. The abundance estimates of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins fairly agreed with the numbers reported in previous monitoring studies. The single animal detection probability was smaller than that of larger cluster size, as predicted by the model and confirmed by field data. However, dense groups of Irrawaddy dolphins showed difference in cluster sizes observed by visual and acoustic methods. Lower detection probability of single clusters of this species seemed to be caused by the clumped distribution of this species.

  19. Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: limitations and alternatives

    Treesearch

    William L. Thompson

    2003-01-01

    Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled...

  20. Estimating population abundance and mapping distribution of wintering sea ducks in coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koneff, M.D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Forsell, D.J.; Wortham, J.S.; Boomer, G.S.; Perry, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    Survey design for wintering scoters (Melanitta sp.) and other sea ducks that occur in offshore waters is challenging because these species have large ranges, are subject to distributional shifts among years and within a season, and can occur in aggregations. Interest in winter sea duck population abundance surveys has grown in recent years. This interest stems from concern over the population status of some sea ducks, limitations of extant breeding waterfowl survey programs in North America and logistical challenges and costs of conducting surveys in northern breeding regions, high winter area philopatry in some species and potential conservation implications, and increasing concern over offshore development and other threats to sea duck wintering habitats. The efficiency and practicality of statistically-rigorous monitoring strategies for mobile, aggregated wintering sea duck populations have not been sufficiently investigated. This study evaluated a 2-phase adaptive stratified strip transect sampling plan to estimate wintering population size of scoters, long-tailed ducks (Clangua hyemalis), and other sea ducks and provide information on distribution. The sampling plan results in an optimal allocation of a fixed sampling effort among offshore strata in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast region. Phase I transect selection probabilities were based on historic distribution and abundance data, while Phase 2 selection probabilities were based on observations made during Phase 1 flights. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection rates. Environmental variables thought to affect detection rates were recorded during the survey and post-stratification and covariate modeling were investigated to reduce the effect of heterogeneity on detection estimation. We assessed cost-precision tradeoffs under a number of fixed-cost sampling scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. We discuss advantages and limitations of this sampling design for estimating wintering sea duck

  1. Can we estimate molluscan abundance and biomass on the continental shelf?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Eric N.; Mann, Roger; Ashton-Alcox, Kathryn A.; Kuykendall, Kelsey M.; Chase Long, M.

    2017-11-01

    Few empirical studies have focused on the effect of sample density on the estimate of abundance of the dominant carbonate-producing fauna of the continental shelf. Here, we present such a study and consider the implications of suboptimal sampling design on estimates of abundance and size-frequency distribution. We focus on a principal carbonate producer of the U.S. Atlantic continental shelf, the Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima. To evaluate the degree to which the results are typical, we analyze a dataset for the principal carbonate producer of Mid-Atlantic estuaries, the Eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, obtained from Delaware Bay. These two species occupy different habitats and display different lifestyles, yet demonstrate similar challenges to survey design and similar trends with sampling density. The median of a series of simulated survey mean abundances, the central tendency obtained over a large number of surveys of the same area, always underestimated true abundance at low sample densities. More dramatic were the trends in the probability of a biased outcome. As sample density declined, the probability of a survey availability event, defined as a survey yielding indices >125% or <75% of the true population abundance, increased and that increase was disproportionately biased towards underestimates. For these cases where a single sample accessed about 0.001-0.004% of the domain, 8-15 random samples were required to reduce the probability of a survey availability event below 40%. The problem of differential bias, in which the probabilities of a biased-high and a biased-low survey index were distinctly unequal, was resolved with fewer samples than the problem of overall bias. These trends suggest that the influence of sampling density on survey design comes with a series of incremental challenges. At woefully inadequate sampling density, the probability of a biased-low survey index will substantially exceed the probability of a biased-high index. The

  2. Hierarchical models of animal abundance and occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, R.M.

    2006-01-01

    Much of animal ecology is devoted to studies of abundance and occurrence of species, based on surveys of spatially referenced sample units. These surveys frequently yield sparse counts that are contaminated by imperfect detection, making direct inference about abundance or occurrence based on observational data infeasible. This article describes a flexible hierarchical modeling framework for estimation and inference about animal abundance and occurrence from survey data that are subject to imperfect detection. Within this framework, we specify models of abundance and detectability of animals at the level of the local populations defined by the sample units. Information at the level of the local population is aggregated by specifying models that describe variation in abundance and detection among sites. We describe likelihood-based and Bayesian methods for estimation and inference under the resulting hierarchical model. We provide two examples of the application of hierarchical models to animal survey data, the first based on removal counts of stream fish and the second based on avian quadrat counts. For both examples, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the models using the software WinBUGS.

  3. Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

    Treesearch

    Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

    2016-01-01

    Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

  4. ELM: AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE ALPHA ABUNDANCE FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Kumar, Yerra Bharat

    We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSSmore » spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.« less

  5. ELM: an Algorithm to Estimate the Alpha Abundance from Low-resolution Spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bu, Yude; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Jingchang; Bharat Kumar, Yerra

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated a novel methodology using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm to determine the α abundance of stars. Applying two methods based on the ELM algorithm—ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices—to the stellar spectra from the ELODIE database, we measured the α abundance with a precision better than 0.065 dex. By applying these two methods to the spectra with different signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and different resolutions, we found that ELM+spectra is more robust against degraded resolution and ELM+Lick indices is more robust against variation in S/N. To further validate the performance of ELM, we applied ELM+spectra and ELM+Lick indices to SDSS spectra and estimated α abundances with a precision around 0.10 dex, which is comparable to the results given by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. We further applied ELM to the spectra of stars in Galactic globular clusters (M15, M13, M71) and open clusters (NGC 2420, M67, NGC 6791), and results show good agreement with previous studies (within 1σ). A comparison of the ELM with other widely used methods including support vector machine, Gaussian process regression, artificial neural networks, and linear least-squares regression shows that ELM is efficient with computational resources and more accurate than other methods.

  6. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2015-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  7. Linking occupancy surveys with habitat characteristics to estimate abundance and distribution in an endangered cryptic bird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crampton, Lisa H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Pias, Kyle E.; Heindl, Barbara A. P.; Savre, Thomas; Diegmann, Julia S.; Paxton, Eben H.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of endangered species are crucial to determine their status and plan recovery options, but such estimates are often difficult to obtain for species with low detection probabilities or that occur in inaccessible habitats. The Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri) is a cryptic species endemic to Kauaʻi, Hawai‘i, and restricted to high elevation ravines that are largely inaccessible. To improve current population estimates, we developed an approach to model distribution and abundance of Puaiohi across their range by linking occupancy surveys to habitat characteristics, territory density, and landscape attributes. Occupancy per station ranged from 0.17 to 0.82, and was best predicted by the number and vertical extent of cliffs, cliff slope, stream width, and elevation. To link occupancy estimates with abundance, we used territory mapping data to estimate the average number of territories per survey station (0.44 and 0.66 territories per station in low and high occupancy streams, respectively), and the average number of individuals per territory (1.9). We then modeled Puaiohi occupancy as a function of two remote-sensed measures of habitat (stream sinuosity and elevation) to predict occupancy across its entire range. We combined predicted occupancy with estimates of birds per station to produce a global population estimate of 494 (95% CI 414–580) individuals. Our approach is a model for using multiple independent sources of information to accurately track population trends, and we discuss future directions for modeling abundance of this, and other, rare species.

  8. Estimating cetacean density and abundance in the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea through aerial surveys: Implications for management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panigada, Simone; Lauriano, Giancarlo; Donovan, Greg; Pierantonio, Nino; Cañadas, Ana; Vázquez, José Antonio; Burt, Louise

    2017-07-01

    Systematic, effective monitoring of animal population parameters underpins successful conservation strategy and wildlife management, but it is often neglected in many regions, including much of the Mediterranean Sea. Nonetheless, a series of systematic multispecies aerial surveys was carried out in the seas around Italy to gather important baseline information on cetacean occurrence, distribution and abundance. The monitored areas included the Pelagos Sanctuary, the Tyrrhenian Sea, portions of the Seas of Corsica and Sardinia, the Ionian Seas as well as the Gulf of Taranto. Overall, approximately 48,000 km were flown in either spring, summer and winter between 2009-2014, covering an area of 444,621 km2. The most commonly observed species were the striped dolphin and the fin whale, with 975 and 83 recorded sightings, respectively. Other sighted cetacean species were the common bottlenose dolphin, the Risso's dolphin, the sperm whale, the pilot whale and the Cuvier's beaked whale. Uncorrected model- and design-based estimates of density and abundance for striped dolphins and fin whales were produced, resulting in a best estimate (model-based) of around 95,000 striped dolphins (CV=11.6%; 95% CI=92,900-120,300) occurring in the Pelagos Sanctuary, Central Tyrrhenian and Western Seas of Corsica and Sardinia combined area in summer 2010. Estimates were also obtained for each individual study region and year. An initial attempt to estimate perception bias for striped dolphins is also provided. The preferred summer 2010 uncorrected best estimate (design-based) for the same areas for fin whales was around 665 (CV=33.1%; 95% CI=350-1260). Estimates are also provided for the individual study regions and years. The results represent baseline data to develop efficient, long-term, systematic monitoring programmes, essential to evaluate trends, as required by a number of national and international frameworks, and stress the need to ensure that surveys are undertaken regularly and

  9. A double-observer approach for estimating detection probability and abundance from point counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Fallon, F.W.; Fallon, J.E.; Heglund, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    Although point counts are frequently used in ornithological studies, basic assumptions about detection probabilities often are untested. We apply a double-observer approach developed to estimate detection probabilities for aerial surveys (Cook and Jacobson 1979) to avian point counts. At each point count, a designated 'primary' observer indicates to another ('secondary') observer all birds detected. The secondary observer records all detections of the primary observer as well as any birds not detected by the primary observer. Observers alternate primary and secondary roles during the course of the survey. The approach permits estimation of observer-specific detection probabilities and bird abundance. We developed a set of models that incorporate different assumptions about sources of variation (e.g. observer, bird species) in detection probability. Seventeen field trials were conducted, and models were fit to the resulting data using program SURVIV. Single-observer point counts generally miss varying proportions of the birds actually present, and observer and bird species were found to be relevant sources of variation in detection probabilities. Overall detection probabilities (probability of being detected by at least one of the two observers) estimated using the double-observer approach were very high (>0.95), yielding precise estimates of avian abundance. We consider problems with the approach and recommend possible solutions, including restriction of the approach to fixed-radius counts to reduce the effect of variation in the effective radius of detection among various observers and to provide a basis for using spatial sampling to estimate bird abundance on large areas of interest. We believe that most questions meriting the effort required to carry out point counts also merit serious attempts to estimate detection probabilities associated with the counts. The double-observer approach is a method that can be used for this purpose.

  10. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Treesearch

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  11. Oxygen abundance distributions in six late-type galaxies based on SALT spectra of H II regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zinchenko, I. A.; Kniazev, A. Y.; Grebel, E. K.; Pilyugin, L. S.

    2015-10-01

    Spectra of 34 H ii regions in the late-type galaxies NGC 1087, NGC 2967, NGC 3023, NGC 4030, NGC 4123, and NGC 4517A were observed with the South African Large Telescope (SALT). In all 34 H ii regions, oxygen abundances were determined through the "counterpart" method (C method). Additionally, in two H ii regions in which we detected auroral lines, we measured oxygen abundances with the classic Te method. We also estimated the abundances in our H ii regions using the O3N2 and N2 calibrations and compared those with the C-based abundances. With these data, we examined the radial abundance distributions in the disks of our target galaxies. We derived surface-brightness profiles and other characteristics of the disks (the surface brightness at the disk center and the disk scale length) in three photometric bands for each galaxy using publicly available photometric imaging data. The radial distributions of the oxygen abundances predicted by the relation between abundance and disk surface brightness in the W1 band obtained for spiral galaxies in our previous study are close to the radial distributions of the oxygen abundances determined from the analysis of the emission line spectra for four galaxies where this relation is applicable. Hence, when the surface-brightness profile of a late-type galaxy is known, this parametric relation can be used to estimate the likely present-day oxygen abundance in the disk of the galaxy. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope, programs 2012-1-RSA_OTH-001, 2012-2-RSA_OTH-003 and 2013-1-RSA_OTH-005.

  12. Chapter 31: Abundance and Distribution of Marbled Murrelets in Oregon and Washington Based on Aerial Surveys

    Treesearch

    Daniel H. Varoujean II; Wendy A. Williams

    1995-01-01

    To determine the abundance and distribution of Marbled Murrelets, aerial surveys of the Oregon coast, Washington outer coast, and shores of the western Strait of Juan de Fuca were conducted in August/September 1993. Based on these marine surveys, abundance estimates are established for Oregon (6,400-6,800 birds) and the waters surveyed in Washington (3,400-3,600 birds...

  13. Estimating equations estimates of trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

  14. Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Miller, Ryan S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Lewis, Jesse S.; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M.

    2016-01-01

    Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480–19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and

  15. Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions.

    PubMed

    Davis, Amy J; Hooten, Mevin B; Miller, Ryan S; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Lewis, Jesse; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M

    2016-10-01

    Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480-19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and

  16. Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

    2017-01-01

    Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

  17. Modelling community dynamics based on species-level abundance models from detection/nondetection data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Kuboi, Kouji; Tada, Tsuneo; Ikeno, Susumu; Makino, Shun'ichi

    2011-01-01

    1. In large-scale field surveys, a binary recording of each species' detection or nondetection has been increasingly adopted for its simplicity and low cost. Because of the importance of abundance in many studies, it is desirable to obtain inferences about abundance at species-, functional group-, and community-levels from such binary data. 2. We developed a novel hierarchical multi-species abundance model based on species-level detection/nondetection data. The model accounts for the existence of undetected species, and variability in abundance and detectability among species. Species-level detection/nondetection is linked to species- level abundance via a detection model that accommodates the expectation that probability of detection (at least one individuals is detected) increases with local abundance of the species. We applied this model to a 9-year dataset composed of the detection/nondetection of forest birds, at a single post-fire site (from 7 to 15 years after fire) in a montane area of central Japan. The model allocated undetected species into one of the predefined functional groups by assuming a prior distribution on individual group membership. 3. The results suggest that 15–20 species were missed in each year, and that species richness of communities and functional groups did not change with post-fire forest succession. Overall abundance of birds and abundance of functional groups tended to increase over time, although only in the winter, while decreases in detectabilities were observed in several species. 4. Synthesis and applications. Understanding and prediction of large-scale biodiversity dynamics partly hinge on how we can use data effectively. Our hierarchical model for detection/nondetection data estimates abundance in space/time at species-, functional group-, and community-levels while accounting for undetected individuals and species. It also permits comparison of multiple communities by many types of abundance-based diversity and similarity

  18. Mark-recapture and mark-resight methods for estimating abundance with remote cameras: a carnivore case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alanso, Robert S.; McClintock, Brett T.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Crooks, Kevin R.

    2015-01-01

    Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new “hybrid” mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and “hybrid” mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator

  19. Use of Atlantic Forest protected areas by free-ranging dogs: estimating abundance and persistence of use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paschoal, Ana Maria; Massara, Rodrigo; Bailey, Larissa L.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Hirsch, Andre; Chiarello, Adriano; Paglia, Adriano

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) are one of the most common carnivoran species in natural areas and their populations are still increasing. Dogs have been shown to impact wildlife populations negatively, and their occurrence can alter the abundance, behavior, and activity patterns of native species. However, little is known about abundance and density of the free-ranging dogs that use protected areas. Here, we used camera trap data with an open-robust design mark–recapture model to estimate the number of dogs that used protected areas in Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We estimated the time period these dogs used the protected areas, and explored factors that influenced the probability of continued use (e.g., season, mammal richness, proportion of forest), while accounting for variation in detection probability. Dogs in the studied system were categorized as rural free-ranging, and their abundance varied widely across protected areas (0–73 individuals). Dogs used protected areas near human houses for longer periods (e.g., >50% of sampling occasions) compared to more distant areas. We found no evidence that their probability of continued use varied with season or mammal richness. Dog detection probability decreased linearly among occasions, possibly due to the owners confining their dogs after becoming aware of our presence. Comparing our estimates to those for native carnivoran, we found that dogs were three to 85 times more abundant than ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), two to 25 times more abundant than puma (Puma concolor), and approximately five times more abundant than the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous). Combining camera trapping data with modern mark–recapture methods provides important demographic information on free-ranging dogs that can guide management strategies to directly control dogs' abundance and ranging behavior.

  20. Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sillett, Scott T.; Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kéry, Marc; Morrison, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural

  1. RNA-Seq Alignment to Individualized Genomes Improves Transcript Abundance Estimates in Multiparent Populations

    PubMed Central

    Munger, Steven C.; Raghupathy, Narayanan; Choi, Kwangbom; Simons, Allen K.; Gatti, Daniel M.; Hinerfeld, Douglas A.; Svenson, Karen L.; Keller, Mark P.; Attie, Alan D.; Hibbs, Matthew A.; Graber, Joel H.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Churchill, Gary A.

    2014-01-01

    Massively parallel RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) has yielded a wealth of new insights into transcriptional regulation. A first step in the analysis of RNA-seq data is the alignment of short sequence reads to a common reference genome or transcriptome. Genetic variants that distinguish individual genomes from the reference sequence can cause reads to be misaligned, resulting in biased estimates of transcript abundance. Fine-tuning of read alignment algorithms does not correct this problem. We have developed Seqnature software to construct individualized diploid genomes and transcriptomes for multiparent populations and have implemented a complete analysis pipeline that incorporates other existing software tools. We demonstrate in simulated and real data sets that alignment to individualized transcriptomes increases read mapping accuracy, improves estimation of transcript abundance, and enables the direct estimation of allele-specific expression. Moreover, when applied to expression QTL mapping we find that our individualized alignment strategy corrects false-positive linkage signals and unmasks hidden associations. We recommend the use of individualized diploid genomes over reference sequence alignment for all applications of high-throughput sequencing technology in genetically diverse populations. PMID:25236449

  2. Evaluation of methods to estimate lake herring spawner abundance in Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Cholwek, G.A.; Evrard, L.M.; Schram, S.; Seider, M.; Symbal, M.

    2006-01-01

    Historically, commercial fishers harvested Lake Superior lake herring Coregonus artedi for their flesh, but recently operators have targeted lake herring for roe. Because no surveys have estimated spawning female abundance, direct estimates of fishing mortality are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of using acoustic techniques in combination with midwater trawling to estimate spawning female lake herring densities in a Lake Superior statistical grid (i.e., a 10′ latitude × 10′ longitude area over which annual commercial harvest statistics are compiled). Midwater trawling showed that mature female lake herring were largely pelagic during the night in late November, accounting for 94.5% of all fish caught exceeding 250 mm total length. When calculating acoustic estimates of mature female lake herring, we excluded backscattering from smaller pelagic fishes like immature lake herring and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax by applying an empirically derived threshold of −35.6 dB. We estimated the average density of mature females in statistical grid 1409 at 13.3 fish/ha and the total number of spawning females at 227,600 (95% confidence interval = 172,500–282,700). Using information on mature female densities, size structure, and fecundity, we estimate that females deposited 3.027 billion (109) eggs in grid 1409 (95% confidence interval = 2.356–3.778 billion). The relative estimation error of the mature female density estimate derived using a geostatistical model—based approach was low (12.3%), suggesting that the employed method was robust. Fishing mortality rates of all mature females and their eggs were estimated at 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. The techniques described for enumerating spawning female lake herring could be used to develop a more accurate stock–recruitment model for Lake Superior lake herring.

  3. Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dawson, D.K.; Bates, S.

    2004-01-01

    Distance-sampling methods are commonly used in studies of animal populations to estimate population density. A common objective of such studies is to evaluate the relationship between abundance or density and covariates that describe animal habitat or other environmental influences. However, little attention has been focused on methods of modeling abundance covariate effects in conventional distance-sampling models. In this paper we propose a distance-sampling model that accommodates covariate effects on abundance. The model is based on specification of the distance-sampling likelihood at the level of the sample unit in terms of local abundance (for each sampling unit). This model is augmented with a Poisson regression model for local abundance that is parameterized in terms of available covariates. Maximum-likelihood estimation of detection and density parameters is based on the integrated likelihood, wherein local abundance is removed from the likelihood by integration. We provide an example using avian point-transect data of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected using a distance-sampling protocol and two measures of habitat structure (understory cover and basal area of overstory trees). The model yields a sensible description (positive effect of understory cover, negative effect on basal area) of the relationship between habitat and Ovenbird density that can be used to evaluate the effects of habitat management on Ovenbird populations.

  4. A likelihood framework for joint estimation of salmon abundance and migratory timing using telemetric mark-recapture

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Gates, Kenneth S.; Palmer, Douglas E.

    2010-01-01

    Many fisheries for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are actively managed to meet escapement goal objectives. In fisheries where the demand for surplus production is high, an extensive assessment program is needed to achieve the opposing objectives of allowing adequate escapement and fully exploiting the available surplus. Knowledge of abundance is a critical element of such assessment programs. Abundance estimation using mark—recapture experiments in combination with telemetry has become common in recent years, particularly within Alaskan river systems. Fish are typically captured and marked in the lower river while migrating in aggregations of individuals from multiple populations. Recapture data are obtained using telemetry receivers that are co-located with abundance assessment projects near spawning areas, which provide large sample sizes and information on population-specific mark rates. When recapture data are obtained from multiple populations, unequal mark rates may reflect a violation of the assumption of homogeneous capture probabilities. A common analytical strategy is to test the hypothesis that mark rates are homogeneous and combine all recapture data if the test is not significant. However, mark rates are often low, and a test of homogeneity may lack sufficient power to detect meaningful differences among populations. In addition, differences among mark rates may provide information that could be exploited during parameter estimation. We present a temporally stratified mark—recapture model that permits capture probabilities and migratory timing through the capture area to vary among strata. Abundance information obtained from a subset of populations after the populations have segregated for spawning is jointly modeled with telemetry distribution data by use of a likelihood function. Maximization of the likelihood produces estimates of the abundance and timing of individual populations migrating through the capture area, thus yielding

  5. Estimating abundance of Sitka black-tailed deer using DNA from fecal pellets

    Treesearch

    Todd J. Brinkman; David K. Person; F. Stuart Chapin; Winston Smith; Kris J. Hundertmark

    2011-01-01

    Densely vegetated environments have hindered collection of basic population parameters on forest-dwelling ungulates. Our objective was to develop a mark-recapture technique that used DNA from fecal pellets to overcome constraints associated with estimating abundance of ungulates in landscapes where direct observation is difficult. We tested our technique on Sitka black...

  6. Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts.

    PubMed

    Dorazio, Robert M; Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H

    2013-07-01

    The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

  7. Estimating abundance while accounting for rarity, correlated behavior, and other sources of variation in counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Martin, Juulien; Edwards, Holly H.

    2013-01-01

    The class of N-mixture models allows abundance to be estimated from repeated, point count surveys while adjusting for imperfect detection of individuals. We developed an extension of N-mixture models to account for two commonly observed phenomena in point count surveys: rarity and lack of independence induced by unmeasurable sources of variation in the detectability of individuals. Rarity increases the number of locations with zero detections in excess of those expected under simple models of abundance (e.g., Poisson or negative binomial). Correlated behavior of individuals and other phenomena, though difficult to measure, increases the variation in detection probabilities among surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models includes a hurdle model of abundance and a beta-binomial model of detectability that accounts for additional (extra-binomial) sources of variation in detections among surveys. As an illustration, we fit this model to repeated point counts of the West Indian manatee, which was observed in a pilot study using aerial surveys. Our extension of N-mixture models provides increased flexibility. The effects of different sets of covariates may be estimated for the probability of occurrence of a species, for its mean abundance at occupied locations, and for its detectability.

  8. Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2013-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  9. Modeling avian abundance from replicated counts using binomial mixture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans

    2005-01-01

    Abundance estimation in ecology is usually accomplished by capture–recapture, removal, or distance sampling methods. These may be hard to implement at large spatial scales. In contrast, binomial mixture models enable abundance estimation without individual identification, based simply on temporally and spatially replicated counts. Here, we evaluate mixture models using data from the national breeding bird monitoring program in Switzerland, where some 250 1-km2 quadrats are surveyed using the territory mapping method three times during each breeding season. We chose eight species with contrasting distribution (wide–narrow), abundance (high–low), and detectability (easy–difficult). Abundance was modeled as a random effect with a Poisson or negative binomial distribution, with mean affected by forest cover, elevation, and route length. Detectability was a logit-linear function of survey date, survey date-by-elevation, and sampling effort (time per transect unit). Resulting covariate effects and parameter estimates were consistent with expectations. Detectability per territory (for three surveys) ranged from 0.66 to 0.94 (mean 0.84) for easy species, and from 0.16 to 0.83 (mean 0.53) for difficult species, depended on survey effort for two easy and all four difficult species, and changed seasonally for three easy and three difficult species. Abundance was positively related to route length in three high-abundance and one low-abundance (one easy and three difficult) species, and increased with forest cover in five forest species, decreased for two nonforest species, and was unaffected for a generalist species. Abundance estimates under the most parsimonious mixture models were between 1.1 and 8.9 (median 1.8) times greater than estimates based on territory mapping; hence, three surveys were insufficient to detect all territories for each species. We conclude that binomial mixture models are an important new approach for estimating abundance corrected for

  10. Hydroacoustic estimates of abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic prey fishes in western Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mason, Doran M.; Johnson, Timothy B.; Harvey, Chris J.; Kitchell, James F.; Schram, Stephen T.; Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Lozano, Stephen J.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Schreiner, Donald R.; Lamon, E. Conrad; Hrabik, Thomas R.

    2005-01-01

    Lake herring (Coregonus artedi) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are a valuable prey resource for the recovering lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Superior. However, prey biomass may be insufficient to support the current predator demand. In August 1997, we assessed the abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic coregonines and rainbow smelt in western Lake Superior by combining a 120 kHz split beam acoustics system with midwater trawls. Coregonines comprised the majority of the midwater trawl catches and the length distributions for trawl caught fish coincided with estimated sizes of acoustic targets. Overall mean pelagic prey fish biomass was 15.56 kg ha−1 with the greatest fish biomass occurring in the Apostle Islands region (27.98 kg ha−1), followed by the Duluth Minnesota region (20.22 kg ha−1), and with the lowest biomass occurring in the open waters of western Lake Superior (9.46 kg ha−1). Biomass estimates from hydroacoustics were typically 2–134 times greater than estimates derived from spring bottom trawl surveys. Prey fish biomass for Lake Superior is about order of magnitude less than acoustic estimates for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Discrepancies observed between bioenergetics-based estimates of predator consumption of coregonines and earlier coregonine biomass estimates may be accounted for by our hydroacoustic estimates.

  11. Combining counts and incidence data: an efficient approach for estimating the log-normal species abundance distribution and diversity indices.

    PubMed

    Bellier, Edwige; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar; Schartau, Ann Kristin; Diserud, Ola H; Finstad, Anders G

    2012-10-01

    Obtaining accurate estimates of diversity indices is difficult because the number of species encountered in a sample increases with sampling intensity. We introduce a novel method that requires that the presence of species in a sample to be assessed while the counts of the number of individuals per species are only required for just a small part of the sample. To account for species included as incidence data in the species abundance distribution, we modify the likelihood function of the classical Poisson log-normal distribution. Using simulated community assemblages, we contrast diversity estimates based on a community sample, a subsample randomly extracted from the community sample, and a mixture sample where incidence data are added to a subsample. We show that the mixture sampling approach provides more accurate estimates than the subsample and at little extra cost. Diversity indices estimated from a freshwater zooplankton community sampled using the mixture approach show the same pattern of results as the simulation study. Our method efficiently increases the accuracy of diversity estimates and comprehension of the left tail of the species abundance distribution. We show how to choose the scale of sample size needed for a compromise between information gained, accuracy of the estimates and cost expended when assessing biological diversity. The sample size estimates are obtained from key community characteristics, such as the expected number of species in the community, the expected number of individuals in a sample and the evenness of the community.

  12. Reconciling LCROSS and Orbital Neutron Water Abundance Estimates in Cabeus Crater

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elphic, Richard; Teodoro, Luis F.; Eke, Vincent R.; Paige, David A.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Colaprete, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    The Lunar Prospector Neutron Spectrometer (LPNS) first revealed Cabeus crater (84.9 deg S, 35.5degW) as having the highest inferred hydrogen on the Moon. Because of the broad LPNS footprint (approximately 40 km FWHM), the apparent peak water-equivalent hydrogen (WEH) concentration is only approximately 0.25 wt%, but could be much higher in smaller areas than the spectrometer footprint. Earlier image reconstruction work suggested that areas within permanent shadow have abundances approximately 1 wt% WEH. However, the LCROSS impact yielded total water estimates, ice plus vapor, of between 3 and 10 wt%. The large disagreement between LCROSS and apparent orbital values imply that either the ice is buried, by perhaps as much as 50 to 100 cm; or the ice distribution within Cabeus is spatially inhomogeneous, or both. Modeling reveals that the areal extent of a "shallow permafrost zone" is far greater than the area of permanent shadow. Ice can be virtually stable for billions of years within a few tens of centimeters of the surface in these areas. However, the LCROSS impact took place in an area of permanent shadow. If stably-trapped volatiles can be found in locales that receive occasional, oblique sunlight, landed missions may target these sites and eventual resource exploitation may be done more easily. Are orbital neutron data consistent with areally-extensive, volatile-rich cold traps? Orbital epithermal neutron data over the northern half of Cabeus (near the LCROSS impact site) are consistent with 0.2 wt% WEH or less in the "permafrost zone" near the crater. On the other hand, pixon reconstructions that confine the hydrogen enhancements to permanent shadow result in higher abundance estimates -- around 1 wt% if homogeneously mixed. But if the PSR abundance is increased to 10 wt%, consistent with the sum of all H-bearing compounds seen by LCROSS, a much larger-than-observed reduction in neutron count rate would be seen from orbit. It is likely that volatiles are

  13. Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

  14. Robust Abundance Estimation in Animal Abundance Surveys with Imperfect Detection

    EPA Science Inventory

    Surveys of animal abundance are central to the conservation and management of living natural resources. However, detection uncertainty complicates the sampling process of many species. One sampling method employed to deal with this problem is depletion (or removal) surveys in whi...

  15. Breeding chorus indices are weakly related to estimated abundance of boreal chorus frogs

    Treesearch

    Paul Stephen Corn; Erin Muths; Amanda M. Kissel; Rick D. Scherer

    2011-01-01

    Call surveys used to monitor breeding choruses of anuran amphibians generate index values that are frequently used to represent the number of male frogs present, but few studies have quantified this relationship. We compared abundance of male Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata), estimated using capture-recapture methods in two populations in Colorado, to call...

  16. Spectral Unmixing Based Construction of Lunar Mineral Abundance Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernhardt, V.; Grumpe, A.; Wöhler, C.

    2017-07-01

    In this study we apply a nonlinear spectral unmixing algorithm to a nearly global lunar spectral reflectance mosaic derived from hyper-spectral image data acquired by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) instrument. Corrections for topographic effects and for thermal emission were performed. A set of 19 laboratory-based reflectance spectra of lunar samples published by the Lunar Soil Characterization Consortium (LSCC) were used as a catalog of potential endmember spectra. For a given spectrum, the multi-population population-based incremental learning (MPBIL) algorithm was used to determine the subset of endmembers actually contained in it. However, as the MPBIL algorithm is computationally expensive, it cannot be applied to all pixels of the reflectance mosaic. Hence, the reflectance mosaic was clustered into a set of 64 prototype spectra, and the MPBIL algorithm was applied to each prototype spectrum. Each pixel of the mosaic was assigned to the most similar prototype, and the set of endmembers previously determined for that prototype was used for pixel-wise nonlinear spectral unmixing using the Hapke model, implemented as linear unmixing of the single-scattering albedo spectrum. This procedure yields maps of the fractional abundances of the 19 endmembers. Based on the known modal abundances of a variety of mineral species in the LSCC samples, a conversion from endmember abundances to mineral abundances was performed. We present maps of the fractional abundances of plagioclase, pyroxene and olivine and compare our results with previously published lunar mineral abundance maps.

  17. Comparison of visual survey and seining methods for estimating abundance of an endangered, benthic stream fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, F.; Jelks, H.L.; Bortone, S.A.; Dorazio, R.M.

    2008-01-01

    We compared visual survey and seining methods for estimating abundance of endangered Okaloosa darters, Etheostoma okaloosae, in 12 replicate stream reaches during August 2001. For each 20-m stream reach, two divers systematically located and marked the position of darters and then a second crew of three to five people came through with a small-mesh seine and exhaustively sampled the same area. Visual surveys required little extra time to complete. Visual counts (24.2 ?? 12.0; mean ?? one SD) considerably exceeded seine captures (7.4 ?? 4.8), and counts from the two methods were uncorrelated. Visual surveys, but not seines, detected the presence of Okaloosa darters at one site with low population densities. In 2003, we performed a depletion removal study in 10 replicate stream reaches to assess the accuracy of the visual survey method. Visual surveys detected 59% of Okaloosa darters present, and visual counts and removal estimates were positively correlated. Taken together, our comparisons indicate that visual surveys more accurately and precisely estimate abundance of Okaloosa darters than seining and more reliably detect presence at low population densities. We recommend evaluation of visual survey methods when designing programs to monitor abundance of benthic fishes in clear streams, especially for threatened and endangered species that may be sensitive to handling and habitat disturbance. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

  18. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    PubMed

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  19. Estimating Grizzly and Black Bear Population Abundance and Trend in Banff National Park Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Sawaya, Michael A.; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Clevenger, Anthony P.; Gibeau, Michael L.; Kalinowski, Steven T.

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears ( = 73.5, 95% CI = 64–94 in 2006;  = 50.4, 95% CI = 49–59 in 2008) and black bears ( = 62.6, 95% CI = 51–89 in 2006;  = 81.8, 95% CI = 72–102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males ( = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74–1.17) and females ( = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67–1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains. PMID:22567089

  20. Hierarchical spatial models of abundance and occurrence from imperfect survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, M.; Gautier, R.; Schmid, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Many estimation and inference problems arising from large-scale animal surveys are focused on developing an understanding of patterns in abundance or occurrence of a species based on spatially referenced count data. One fundamental challenge, then, is that it is generally not feasible to completely enumerate ('census') all individuals present in each sample unit. This observation bias may consist of several components, including spatial coverage bias (not all individuals in the Population are exposed to sampling) and detection bias (exposed individuals may go undetected). Thus, observations are biased for the state variable (abundance, occupancy) that is the object of inference. Moreover, data are often sparse for most observation locations, requiring consideration of methods for spatially aggregating or otherwise combining sparse data among sample units. The development of methods that unify spatial statistical models with models accommodating non-detection is necessary to resolve important spatial inference problems based on animal survey data. In this paper, we develop a novel hierarchical spatial model for estimation of abundance and occurrence from survey data wherein detection is imperfect. Our application is focused on spatial inference problems in the Swiss Survey of Common Breeding Birds. The observation model for the survey data is specified conditional on the unknown quadrat population size, N(s). We augment the observation model with a spatial process model for N(s), describing the spatial variation in abundance of the species. The model includes explicit sources of variation in habitat structure (forest, elevation) and latent variation in the form of a correlated spatial process. This provides a model-based framework for combining the spatially referenced samples while at the same time yielding a unified treatment of estimation problems involving both abundance and occurrence. We provide a Bayesian framework for analysis and prediction based on the

  1. Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertulli, Chiara G.; Guéry, Loreleï; McGinty, Niall; Suzuki, Ailie; Brannan, Naomi; Marques, Tania; Rasmussen, Marianne H.; Gimenez, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    Knowledge of abundance and survival of humpback whales, white-beaked dolphins and minke whales are essential to manage and conserve these species in Icelandic coastal shelf waters. Our main goal was to test the feasibility of employing inexpensive research methods (data collected by trained-scientist volunteers onboard opportunistic vessels) to assess abundance and apparent survival. No previous studies in Iceland have investigated these two demographic parameters in these three cetacean species using open capture-recapture models accounting for imperfect and possibly heterogeneous detection. A transient effect was accounted for whenever required to estimate the population of resident individuals. Identification photographs were collected by scientist-trained volunteers for 7 years (2006-2013) from onboard commercial whale-watching vessels in the coastal waters of Faxaflói (southwest coast, 4400 km2) and Skjálfandi (northeast coast, 1100 km2), Iceland. We estimated an average abundance of 83 humpback whales (Mn; 95% confidence interval: 54-130) in Skjálfandi; 238 white-beaked dolphins (La; [163-321]) in Faxaflói; and 67 minke whales (Ba; [53-82]) in Faxaflói and 24 (14-31) in Skjálfandi. We also found that apparent survival was constant for all three species (Mn: 0.52 [0.41-0.63], La: 0.79 [0.64-0.88], Ba-Faxaflói: 0.80 [0.67-0.88], Ba-Skjálfandi: 0.96 [0.60-0.99]). Our results showed inter-annual variation in abundance estimates which were small for all species, and the presence of transience for minke whales. A significant increase in abundance during the study period was solely found in minke whale data from Skjálfandi. Humpback whales and white-beaked dolphins showed lower apparent survival rates compared to similar baleen whale and dolphin populations. Our results show data collected by trained-scientist volunteers can produce viable estimates of abundance and survival although bias in the methods we employed exist and need to be addressed. With the

  2. Conservation in a cup of water: estimating biodiversity and population abundance from environmental DNA.

    PubMed

    Lodge, David M; Turner, Cameron R; Jerde, Christopher L; Barnes, Matthew A; Chadderton, Lindsay; Egan, Scott P; Feder, Jeffrey L; Mahon, Andrew R; Pfrender, Michael E

    2012-06-01

    Three mantras often guide species and ecosystem management: (i) for preventing invasions by harmful species, 'early detection and rapid response'; (ii) for conserving imperilled native species, 'protection of biodiversity hotspots'; and (iii) for assessing biosecurity risk, 'an ounce of prevention equals a pound of cure.' However, these and other management goals are elusive when traditional sampling tools (e.g. netting, traps, electrofishing, visual surveys) have poor detection limits, are too slow or are not feasible. One visionary solution is to use an organism's DNA in the environment (eDNA), rather than the organism itself, as the target of detection. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Thomsen et al. (2012) provide new evidence demonstrating the feasibility of this approach, showing that eDNA is an accurate indicator of the presence of an impressively diverse set of six aquatic or amphibious taxa including invertebrates, amphibians, a fish and a mammal in a wide range of freshwater habitats. They are also the first to demonstrate that the abundance of eDNA, as measured by qPCR, correlates positively with population abundance estimated with traditional tools. Finally, Thomsen et al. (2012) demonstrate that next-generation sequencing of eDNA can quantify species richness. Overall, Thomsen et al. (2012) provide a revolutionary roadmap for using eDNA for detection of species, estimates of relative abundance and quantification of biodiversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. The elemental abundances (with uncertainties) of the most Earth-like planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Haiyang S.; Lineweaver, Charles H.; Ireland, Trevor R.

    2018-01-01

    To first order, the Earth as well as other rocky planets in the Solar System and rocky exoplanets orbiting other stars, are refractory pieces of the stellar nebula out of which they formed. To estimate the chemical composition of rocky exoplanets based on their stellar hosts' elemental abundances, we need a better understanding of the devolatilization that produced the Earth. To quantify the chemical relationships between the Earth, the Sun and other bodies in the Solar System, the elemental abundances of the bulk Earth are required. The key to comparing Earth's composition with those of other objects is to have a determination of the bulk composition with an appropriate estimate of uncertainties. Here we present concordance estimates (with uncertainties) of the elemental abundances of the bulk Earth, which can be used in such studies. First we compile, combine and renormalize a large set of heterogeneous literature values of the primitive mantle (PM) and of the core. We then integrate standard radial density profiles of the Earth and renormalize them to the current best estimate for the mass of the Earth. Using estimates of the uncertainties in i) the density profiles, ii) the core-mantle boundary and iii) the inner core boundary, we employ standard error propagation to obtain a core mass fraction of 32.5 ± 0.3 wt%. Our bulk Earth abundances are the weighted sum of our concordance core abundances and concordance PM abundances. Unlike previous efforts, the uncertainty on the core mass fraction is propagated to the uncertainties on the bulk Earth elemental abundances. Our concordance estimates for the abundances of Mg, Sn, Br, B, Cd and Be are significantly lower than previous estimates of the bulk Earth. Our concordance estimates for the abundances of Na, K, Cl, Zn, Sr, F, Ga, Rb, Nb, Gd, Ta, He, Ar, and Kr are significantly higher. The uncertainties on our elemental abundances usefully calibrate the unresolved discrepancies between standard Earth models under

  4. Fishery-independent surface abundance and density estimates of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) from aerial surveys in the Central Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauriano, Giancarlo; Pierantonio, Nino; Kell, Laurence; Cañadas, Ana; Donovan, Gregory; Panigada, Simone

    2017-07-01

    Fishery-independent surface density and abundance estimates for the swordfish were obtained through aerial surveys carried out over a large portion of the Central Mediterranean, implementing distance sampling methodologies. Both design- and model-based abundance and density showed an uneven occurrence of the species throughout the study area, with clusters of higher density occurring near converging fronts, strong thermoclines and/or underwater features. The surface abundance was estimated for the Pelagos Sanctuary for Mediterranean Marine Mammals in the summer of 2009 (n=1152; 95%CI=669.0-1981.0; %CV=27.64), the Sea of Sardinia, the Pelagos Sanctuary and the Central Tyrrhenian Sea for the summer of 2010 (n=3401; 95%CI=2067.0-5596.0; %CV=25.51), and for the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea during the winter months of 2010-2011 (n=1228; 95%CI=578-2605; %CV=38.59). The Mediterranean swordfish stock deserves special attention in light of the heavy fishing pressures. Furthermore, the unreliability of fishery-related data has, to date, hampered our ability to effectively inform long-term conservation in the Mediterranean Region. Considering that the European countries have committed to protect the resources and all the marine-related economic and social dynamics upon which they depend, the information presented here constitute useful data towards the international legal requirements under the Marine Strategy Framework Directory, the Common Fisheries Policy, the Habitats and Species Directive and the Directive on Maritime Spatial Planning, among the others.

  5. Niche modelling of marsh plants based on occurrence and abundance data.

    PubMed

    Lou, Yanjing; Gao, Chuanyu; Pan, Yanwen; Xue, Zhenshan; Liu, Ying; Tang, Zhanhui; Jiang, Ming; Lu, Xianguo; Rydin, Håkan

    2018-03-01

    The information of species' response (optimum or critical limits along environmental gradients) is a key to understanding ecological questions and to design management plans. A large number of plots (762) from 70 transects of 13 wetland sites in Northeast China were sampled along flooding gradient from marsh to wet meadow. Species response (abundance and occurrence) to flooding were modelled with Generalized Additive Models for 21 dominant plant species. We found that 20 of 21 species showed a significant response to flooding for the occurrence and abundance models, and four types of response were found: monotonically increasing, monotonically decreasing, skewed unimodal and symmetric unimodal. The species with monotonically increasing response have the deepest flooding optimum and widest niche width, followed by those with unimodal curve, and the monotonically decreasing ones have the smallest values. The optima and niche width (whether based on occurrence or abundance models) both significantly correlated with the frequency, but not with mean abundance. Abundance models outperformed occurrence models based on goodness of fit. The abundance models predicted a rather sharp shift from dominance of helophytes (Carex pseudo-curaica and C. lasiocarpa) to wet meadow species (Calamagrostis angustifolia and Carex appendiculata) if water levels drop from about 10cm above soil surface to below the surface. The defined optima and niche width based on the abundance models can be applied to better instruct restoration management. Given the time required to collect abundance data, an efficient strategy could be to monitor occurrence in many plots and abundance in a subset of these. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating occupancy and abundance of stream amphibians using environmental DNA from filtered water samples

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pilliod, David S.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Waits, Lisette P.

    2013-01-01

    Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods for detecting aquatic species are advancing rapidly, but with little evaluation of field protocols or precision of resulting estimates. We compared sampling results from traditional field methods with eDNA methods for two amphibians in 13 streams in central Idaho, USA. We also evaluated three water collection protocols and the influence of sampling location, time of day, and distance from animals on eDNA concentration in the water. We found no difference in detection or amount of eDNA among water collection protocols. eDNA methods had slightly higher detection rates than traditional field methods, particularly when species occurred at low densities. eDNA concentration was positively related to field-measured density, biomass, and proportion of transects occupied. Precision of eDNA-based abundance estimates increased with the amount of eDNA in the water and the number of replicate subsamples collected. eDNA concentration did not vary significantly with sample location in the stream, time of day, or distance downstream from animals. Our results further advance the implementation of eDNA methods for monitoring aquatic vertebrates in stream habitats.

  7. Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Relative Abundances of Protein Conformation in a Heterogeneous Mixture from Small Angle X-Ray Scattering Intensity Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Onuk, A. Emre; Akcakaya, Murat; Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Erdogmus, Deniz; Brooks, Dana H.; Makowski, Lee

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we describe a model for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the relative abundances of different conformations of a protein in a heterogeneous mixture from small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) intensities. To consider cases where the solution includes intermediate or unknown conformations, we develop a subset selection method based on k-means clustering and the Cramér-Rao bound on the mixture coefficient estimation error to find a sparse basis set that represents the space spanned by the measured SAXS intensities of the known conformations of a protein. Then, using the selected basis set and the assumptions on the model for the intensity measurements, we show that the MLE model can be expressed as a constrained convex optimization problem. Employing the adenylate kinase (ADK) protein and its known conformations as an example, and using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation scheme. Here, although we use 45 crystallographically determined experimental structures and we could generate many more using, for instance, molecular dynamics calculations, the clustering technique indicates that the data cannot support the determination of relative abundances for more than 5 conformations. The estimation of this maximum number of conformations is intrinsic to the methodology we have used here. PMID:26924916

  8. Monitoring Butterfly Abundance: Beyond Pollard Walks

    PubMed Central

    Pellet, Jérôme; Bried, Jason T.; Parietti, David; Gander, Antoine; Heer, Patrick O.; Cherix, Daniel; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability. PMID:22859980

  9. Fitting statistical distributions to sea duck count data: implications for survey design and abundance estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Leirness, Jeffery B.; Kinlan, Brian P.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Silverman, Emily D.

    2014-01-01

    Determining appropriate statistical distributions for modeling animal count data is important for accurate estimation of abundance, distribution, and trends. In the case of sea ducks along the U.S. Atlantic coast, managers want to estimate local and regional abundance to detect and track population declines, to define areas of high and low use, and to predict the impact of future habitat change on populations. In this paper, we used a modified marked point process to model survey data that recorded flock sizes of Common eiders, Long-tailed ducks, and Black, Surf, and White-winged scoters. The data come from an experimental aerial survey, conducted by the United States Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Division of Migratory Bird Management, during which east-west transects were flown along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida during the winters of 2009–2011. To model the number of flocks per transect (the points), we compared the fit of four statistical distributions (zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated geometric, zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial) to data on the number of species-specific sea duck flocks that were recorded for each transect flown. To model the flock sizes (the marks), we compared the fit of flock size data for each species to seven statistical distributions: positive Poisson, positive negative binomial, positive geometric, logarithmic, discretized lognormal, zeta and Yule–Simon. Akaike’s Information Criterion and Vuong’s closeness tests indicated that the negative binomial and discretized lognormal were the best distributions for all species for the points and marks, respectively. These findings have important implications for estimating sea duck abundances as the discretized lognormal is a more skewed distribution than the Poisson and negative binomial, which are frequently used to model avian counts; the lognormal is also less heavy-tailed than the power law distributions (e.g., zeta and Yule–Simon), which are

  10. [Study of spatial stratified sampling strategy of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey based on plant abundance].

    PubMed

    Xun-Ping, W; An, Z

    2017-07-27

    Objective To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snails in marshland endemic regions of schistosomiasis, so as to improve the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. Methods A snail sampling strategy (Spatial Sampling Scenario of Oncomelania based on Plant Abundance, SOPA) which took the plant abundance as auxiliary variable was explored and an experimental study in a 50 m×50 m plot in a marshland in the Poyang Lake region was performed. Firstly, the push broom surveyed data was stratified into 5 layers by the plant abundance data; then, the required numbers of optimal sampling points of each layer through Hammond McCullagh equation were calculated; thirdly, every sample point in the line with the Multiple Directional Interpolation (MDI) placement scheme was pinpointed; and finally, the comparison study among the outcomes of the spatial random sampling strategy, the traditional systematic sampling method, the spatial stratified sampling method, Sandwich spatial sampling and inference and SOPA was performed. Results The method (SOPA) proposed in this study had the minimal absolute error of 0.213 8; and the traditional systematic sampling method had the largest estimate, and the absolute error was 0.924 4. Conclusion The snail sampling strategy (SOPA) proposed in this study obtains the higher estimation accuracy than the other four methods.

  11. A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, Robert; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2017-01-01

    MotivationSeveral spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.Model and data analysisWe developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.BenefitsOur approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species

  12. Accounting for Subgroup Structure in Line-Transect Abundance Estimates of False Killer Whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in Hawaiian Waters

    PubMed Central

    Bradford, Amanda L.; Forney, Karin A.; Oleson, Erin M.; Barlow, Jay

    2014-01-01

    For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters) of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ): an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5) and NWHI (n = 1) false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000) of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai’i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479–5,030) and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97–3

  13. Accounting for subgroup structure in line-transect abundance estimates of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in Hawaiian waters.

    PubMed

    Bradford, Amanda L; Forney, Karin A; Oleson, Erin M; Barlow, Jay

    2014-01-01

    For biological populations that form aggregations (or clusters) of individuals, cluster size is an important parameter in line-transect abundance estimation and should be accurately measured. Cluster size in cetaceans has traditionally been represented as the total number of individuals in a group, but group size may be underestimated if group members are spatially diffuse. Groups of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) can comprise numerous subgroups that are dispersed over tens of kilometers, leading to a spatial mismatch between a detected group and the theoretical framework of line-transect analysis. Three stocks of false killer whales are found within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone of the Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiian EEZ): an insular main Hawaiian Islands stock, a pelagic stock, and a Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) stock. A ship-based line-transect survey of the Hawaiian EEZ was conducted in the summer and fall of 2010, resulting in six systematic-effort visual sightings of pelagic (n = 5) and NWHI (n = 1) false killer whale groups. The maximum number and spatial extent of subgroups per sighting was 18 subgroups and 35 km, respectively. These sightings were combined with data from similar previous surveys and analyzed within the conventional line-transect estimation framework. The detection function, mean cluster size, and encounter rate were estimated separately to appropriately incorporate data collected using different methods. Unlike previous line-transect analyses of cetaceans, subgroups were treated as the analytical cluster instead of groups because subgroups better conform to the specifications of line-transect theory. Bootstrap values (n = 5,000) of the line-transect parameters were randomly combined to estimate the variance of stock-specific abundance estimates. Hawai'i pelagic and NWHI false killer whales were estimated to number 1,552 (CV = 0.66; 95% CI = 479-5,030) and 552 (CV = 1.09; 95% CI = 97

  14. Can Occupancy–Abundance Models Be Used to Monitor Wolf Abundance?

    PubMed Central

    Latham, M. Cecilia; Latham, A. David M.; Webb, Nathan F.; Mccutchen, Nicole A.; Boutin, Stan

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the abundance of wild carnivores is of foremost importance for conservation and management. However, given their elusive habits, direct observations of these animals are difficult to obtain, so abundance is more commonly estimated from sign surveys or radio-marked individuals. These methods can be costly and difficult, particularly in large areas with heavy forest cover. As an alternative, recent research has suggested that wolf abundance can be estimated from occupancy–abundance curves derived from “virtual” surveys of simulated wolf track networks. Although potentially more cost-effective, the utility of this approach hinges on its robustness to violations of its assumptions. We assessed the sensitivity of the occupancy–abundance approach to four assumptions: variation in wolf movement rates, changes in pack cohesion, presence of lone wolves, and size of survey units. Our simulations showed that occupancy rates and wolf pack abundances were biased high if track surveys were conducted when wolves made long compared to short movements, wolf packs were moving as multiple hunting units as opposed to a cohesive pack, and lone wolves were moving throughout the surveyed landscape. We also found that larger survey units (400 and 576 km2) were more robust to changes in these factors than smaller survey units (36 and 144 km2). However, occupancy rates derived from large survey units rapidly reached an asymptote at 100% occupancy, suggesting that these large units are inappropriate for areas with moderate to high wolf densities (>15 wolves/1,000 km2). Virtually-derived occupancy–abundance relationships can be a useful method for monitoring wolves and other elusive wildlife if applied within certain constraints, in particular biological knowledge of the surveyed species needs to be incorporated into the design of the occupancy surveys. Further, we suggest that the applicability of this method could be extended by directly incorporating some of its

  15. Estimation of marine mineral resources abundance using back-scattering intensity of Deep-tow Side Scan Sonar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, C. M.; Joo, J.; Hyeong, K.; Chi, S. B.

    2016-12-01

    Manganese nodule, also known as polymetallic nodule, contains precious elements in high contents and is regarded as one of the most important future mineral resources. It occurs throughout the world oceans, but economically feasible deposits show limited distribution only in several deepsea basins including Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ) in northeast equatorial Pacific. Estimation of resources potential is one of the key factors prerequisite for economic feasibility study. Nodule abundance is commonly estimated from direct nodule sampling, however it is difficult to obtain statistically robust data because of highly variable spatial distribution and high cost of direct sampling. Variogram analysis indicates 3.5×3.5km sampling resolution to obtain indicated category of resources data, which requires over 1,000 sampling operations to cover the potential exploitation area with mining life of 20-30 years. High-resolution acoustic survey, bathymetry and back-scattered intensity, can provide high-resolution resources data with the definition of obstacles, such as faults and scarps, for operation of nodule collecting robots. We operated 120 kHz deep-tow side scan sonar (DTSSS) with spatial resolution of 1×1m in a representative area. Sea floor images were also taken continuously by deep-tow camera from selected tracks, converted to nodule abundance using image analysis program and conversion equation, and compared with acoustic data. Back-scattering intensity values could be divided into several group and translated into nodule abundance with high confidence level. Our result indicates that high resolution acoustic survey is appropriate tool for reliable assessment of manganese nodule abundance and definition of minable area.

  16. Space-based measurements of elemental abundances and their relation to solar abundances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Bochsler, P.; Geiss, J.

    1990-01-01

    The Ion Composition Instrument (ICI) aboard the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft was in the solar wind continuously from August 1978 to December 1982. The results made it possible to establish long-term average solar wind abundance values for helium, oxygen, neon, silicon, and iron. The Charge-Energy-Mass instrument aboard the CCE spacecraft of the AMPTE mission has measured the abundance of these elements in the magnetosheath and has also added carbon, nitrogen, magnesium, and sulfur to the list. There is strong evidence that these magnetosheath abundances are representative of the solar wind. Other sources of solar wind abundances are Solar Energetic Particle experiments and Apollo lunar foils. When comparing the abundances from all of these sources with photospheric abundances, it is clear that helium is depleted in the solar wind while silicon and iron are enhanced. Solar wind abundances for carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and neon correlate well with the photospheric values. The incorporation of minor ions into the solar wind appears to depend upon both the ionization times for the elements and the Coulomb drag exerted by the outflowing proton flux.

  17. Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

    PubMed

    Givan, Or; Edelist, Dor; Sonin, Oren; Belmaker, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons

  18. Use of miniroutes and Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    1. Information on relative abundance is easily obtained and adds greatly to the value of an atlas project. 2. The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides annual counts (birds per 50 roadside stops) that can be used to: (1) map relative abundance by physiographic region within a state or province, (2) map relative abundance on a more local scale by using results from individual routes, or (3) compute estimates of total state populations of a species. Where BBS coverage is too scanty to permit mapping, extra temporary routes may be established to provide additional information for the atlas. Or, if continuing coverage is anticipated, additional permanent random routes can be assigned by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 3. Miniroutes of 15 or more stops can be established in individual atlas blocks to serve the dual purposes of providing efficient uniform coverage and providing information on relative abundance. Miniroutes can also be extracted from BBS routes to supplement special atlas coverage, or vice versa; but the data from the BBS will not be confined to individual atlas blocks. 4. Advantages of 15- or 20-stop Miniroutes over 25-stop Miniroutes are several: the ability to do two per morning and the lower variability among M1niroute results. Also, many 5-km atlas blocks do not have enough secondary roads to accommodate 25 stops at one-half mile intervals. Disadvantages of 15-stop Miniroutes starting at sunrise are the smaller numbers of birds recorded, missing of the very productive dawn chorus period (Robbins 1981), and missing crepuscular species (rails, woodcock, owls, and goatsuckers). 5. Advantages of recording counts of individuals rather than checking only species presence at Miniroute stops are that: (1) relative abundance can be mapped rather than frequency only (a measure of frequency is already available in the number of blocks recording each species); (2) population change can be measured over a period of years when the next atlas is made; and (3

  19. Estimated Rock Abundance and Thermophysical Parameters in Oppenheimer Crater on the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauch, Karin E.; Hiesinger, Harald; Ivanov, Mikhail; van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Pasckert, Jan-Hendrik; Weinauer, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Oppenheimer crater is located in the north-east of the South Pole-Aitken basin (SPA), the largest impact structure on the Moon [e.g., 1]. The crater is ˜215km in diameter and has an estimated age of ˜4.1 Ga [2]. The floor of Oppenheimer shows evidence of dark mantling deposits and a concentric system of graben structures close to the rim of the crater [3]. Image and topography data show that the floor is flat apart from the graben structures and subsequent impacts on the floor. Oppenheimer-U (˜40km) and -H (˜35km) are floor-fractured craters within the north-west and south-east portions of Oppenheimer crater [3]. Dark mantling deposits on the floor are associated with the graben system. [3] estimated an age between ˜3.98Ga and ˜3.66Ga for the pyroclastic activity, based on crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) WAC and NAC images. In this study we compare the mapping results of [3] with temperature data of the LRO Diviner experiment [4] using a numerical model [5, 6]. Nighttime temperature variations are directly influenced by the surface and subsurface thermophysical properties, namely bulk density, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity [7, 8]. These properties can be summarized to a thermal inertia, which represents the ability to conduct and store heat [8]. Low thermal inertia units, such as dust and other fine grained material, quickly respond to temperature changes, which results in large temperature amplitudes between the lunar day and night. On the other hand, high thermal inertia material, e.g. rocks or bedrock, take more time to heat up during the day and reradiate the heat during the night [8]. Relative rock abundances are derived from temperature measurements of the same location at different wavelengths. Brightness temperatures are a function of wavelength and increase with decreasing wavelength [9, 10]. This nonlinearity of the Planck radiance can be used to determine the amount of

  20. Bacterioplankton in antarctic ocean waters during late austral winter: abundance, frequency of dividing cells, and estimates of production.

    PubMed

    Hanson, R B; Shafer, D; Ryan, T; Pope, D H; Lowery, H K

    1983-05-01

    Bacterioplankton productivity in Antarctic waters of the eastern South Pacific Ocean and Drake Passage was estimated by direct counts and frequency of dividing cells (FDC). Total bacterioplankton assemblages were enumerated by epifluorescent microscopy. The experimentally determined relationship between in situ FDC and the potential instantaneous growth rate constant (mu) is best described by the regression equation ln mu = 0.081 FDC - 3.73. In the eastern South Pacific Ocean, bacterioplankton abundance (2 x 10 to 3.5 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (11%) were highest at the Polar Front (Antarctic Convergence). North of the Subantarctic Front, abundance and FDC were between 1 x 10 to 2 x 10 cells per ml and 3 to 5%, respectively, and were vertically homogeneous to a depth of 600 m. In Drake Passage, abundance (10 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (16%) were highest in waters south of the Polar Front and near the sea ice. Subantarctic waters in Drake Passage contained 4 x 10 cells per ml with 4 to 5% FDC. Instantaneous growth rate constants ranged between 0.029 and 0.088 h. Using estimates of potential mu and measured standing stocks, we estimated productivity to range from 0.62 mug of C per liter . day in the eastern South Pacific Ocean to 17.1 mug of C per liter . day in the Drake Passage near the sea ice.

  1. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  2. Finding a fox: an evaluation of survey methods to estimate abundance of a small desert carnivore.

    PubMed

    Dempsey, Steven J; Gese, Eric M; Kluever, Bryan M

    2014-01-01

    The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore.

  3. Finding a Fox: An Evaluation of Survey Methods to Estimate Abundance of a Small Desert Carnivore

    PubMed Central

    Dempsey, Steven J.; Gese, Eric M.; Kluever, Bryan M.

    2014-01-01

    The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore. PMID:25148102

  4. Accounting for non-independent detection when estimating abundance of organisms with a Bayesian approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Julien; Royle, J. Andrew; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Edwards, Holly H.; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth

    2011-01-01

    Summary 1. Binomial mixture models use repeated count data to estimate abundance. They are becoming increasingly popular because they provide a simple and cost-effective way to account for imperfect detection. However, these models assume that individuals are detected independently of each other. This assumption may often be violated in the field. For instance, manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) may surface in turbid water (i.e. become available for detection during aerial surveys) in a correlated manner (i.e. in groups). However, correlated behaviour, affecting the non-independence of individual detections, may also be relevant in other systems (e.g. correlated patterns of singing in birds and amphibians). 2. We extend binomial mixture models to account for correlated behaviour and therefore to account for non-independent detection of individuals. We simulated correlated behaviour using beta-binomial random variables. Our approach can be used to simultaneously estimate abundance, detection probability and a correlation parameter. 3. Fitting binomial mixture models to data that followed a beta-binomial distribution resulted in an overestimation of abundance even for moderate levels of correlation. In contrast, the beta-binomial mixture model performed considerably better in our simulation scenarios. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure to evaluate the fit of beta-binomial mixture models. 4. We illustrate our approach by fitting both binomial and beta-binomial mixture models to aerial survey data of manatees in Florida. We found that the binomial mixture model did not fit the data, whereas there was no evidence of lack of fit for the beta-binomial mixture model. This example helps illustrate the importance of using simulations and assessing goodness-of-fit when analysing ecological data with N-mixture models. Indeed, both the simulations and the goodness-of-fit procedure highlighted the limitations of the standard binomial mixture model for aerial

  5. Assessment of distribution and abundance estimates for Mariana swiftlets (Aerodramus bartschi) via examination of survey methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Nathan C.; Haig, Susan M.; Mosher, Stephen M.

    2018-01-01

    We described past and present distribution and abundance data to evaluate the status of the endangered Mariana Swiftlet (Aerodramus bartschi), a little-known echolocating cave swiftlet that currently inhabits 3 of 5 formerly occupied islands in the Mariana archipelago. We then evaluated the survey methods used to attain these estimates via fieldwork carried out on an introduced population of Mariana Swiftlets on the island of O'ahu, Hawaiian Islands, to derive better methods for future surveys. We estimate the range-wide population of Mariana Swiftlets to be 5,704 individuals occurring in 15 caves on Saipan, Aguiguan, and Guam in the Marianas; and 142 individuals occupying one tunnel on O'ahu. We further confirm that swiftlets have been extirpated from Rota and Tinian and have declined on Aguiguan. Swiftlets have remained relatively stable on Guam and Saipan in recent years. Our assessment of survey methods used for Mariana Swiftlets suggests overestimates depending on the technique used. We suggest the use of night vision technology and other changes to more accurately reflect their distribution, abundance, and status.

  6. A sampling design and model for estimating abundance of Nile crocodiles while accounting for heterogeneity of detectability of multiple observers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shirley, Matthew H.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Abassery, Ekramy; Elhady, Amr A.; Mekki, Mohammed S.; Asran, Hosni H.

    2012-01-01

    As part of the development of a management program for Nile crocodiles in Lake Nasser, Egypt, we used a dependent double-observer sampling protocol with multiple observers to compute estimates of population size. To analyze the data, we developed a hierarchical model that allowed us to assess variation in detection probabilities among observers and survey dates, as well as account for variation in crocodile abundance among sites and habitats. We conducted surveys from July 2008-June 2009 in 15 areas of Lake Nasser that were representative of 3 main habitat categories. During these surveys, we sampled 1,086 km of lake shore wherein we detected 386 crocodiles. Analysis of the data revealed significant variability in both inter- and intra-observer detection probabilities. Our raw encounter rate was 0.355 crocodiles/km. When we accounted for observer effects and habitat, we estimated a surface population abundance of 2,581 (2,239-2,987, 95% credible intervals) crocodiles in Lake Nasser. Our results underscore the importance of well-trained, experienced monitoring personnel in order to decrease heterogeneity in intra-observer detection probability and to better detect changes in the population based on survey indices. This study will assist the Egyptian government establish a monitoring program as an integral part of future crocodile harvest activities in Lake Nasser

  7. Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile.

    PubMed

    Galletti Vernazzani, Barbara; Jackson, Jennifer A; Cabrera, Elsa; Carlson, Carole A; Brownell, Robert L

    2017-01-01

    Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May). Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004-2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004-2012), open population models estimate that ~570-760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638-933) and 570 (95% CI 475-705) for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small.

  8. Abundance models improve spatial and temporal prioritization of conservation resources.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Alison; Fink, Daniel; Reynolds, Mark D; Hochachka, Wesley M; Sullivan, Brian L; Bruns, Nicholas E; Hallstein, Eric; Merrifield, Matt S; Matsumoto, Sandi; Kelling, Steve

    2015-10-01

    Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display similar patterns and therefore development of robust, scalable, abundance models is critical to ensuring that scarce conservation resources are applied where they can have the greatest benefits. Motivated by a dynamic land conservation program, we develop and assess a general method for modeling relative abundance using citizen science monitoring data. Weekly estimates of relative abundance and occurrence were compared for prioritizing times and locations of conservation actions for migratory waterbird species in California, USA. We found that abundance estimates consistently provided better rankings of observed counts than occurrence estimates. Additionally, the relationship between abundance and occurrence was nonlinear and varied by species and season. Across species, locations prioritized by occurrence models had only 10-58% overlap with locations prioritized by abundance models, highlighting that occurrence models will not typically identify the locations of highest abundance that are vital for conservation of populations.

  9. Using genetic pedigree reconstruction to estimate effective spawner abundance from redd surveys: an example involving Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitlock, S.L.; Schultz, L.D.; Schreck, Carl B.; Hess, J.E.

    2017-01-01

    Redd surveys are a commonly used technique for indexing the abundance of sexually mature fish in streams; however, substantial effort is often required to link redd counts to actual spawner abundance. In this study, we describe how genetic pedigree reconstruction can be used to estimate effective spawner abundance in a stream reach, using Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) as an example. Lamprey embryos were sampled from redds within a 2.5 km reach of the Luckiamute River, Oregon, USA. Embryos were found in only 20 of the 48 redds sampled (suggesting 58% false redds); however, multiple sets of parents were detected in 44% of the true redds. Estimates from pedigree reconstruction suggested that there were 0.48 (95% CI: 0.29–0.88) effective spawners per redd and revealed that individual lamprey contributed gametes to a minimum of between one and six redds, and in one case, spawned in patches that were separated by over 800 m. Our findings demonstrate the utility of pedigree reconstruction techniques for both inferring spawning-ground behaviors and providing useful information for refining lamprey redd survey methodologies.

  10. Estimating modal abundances from the spectra of natural and laboratory pyroxene mixtures using the modified Gaussian model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sunshine, Jessica M.; Pieters, Carle M.

    1993-01-01

    The modified Gaussian model (MGM) is used to explore spectra of samples containing multiple pyroxene components as a function of modal abundance. The MGM allows spectra to be analyzed directly, without the use of actual or assumed end-member spectra and therefore holds great promise for remote applications. A series of mass fraction mixtures created from several different particle size fractions are analyzed with the MGM to quantify the properties of pyroxene mixtures as a function of both modal abundance and grain size. Band centers, band widths, and relative band strengths of absorptions from individual pyroxenes in mixture spectra are found to be largely independent of particle size. Spectral properties of both zoned and exsolved pyroxene components are resolved in exsolved samples using the MGM, and modal abundances are accurately estimated to within 5-10 percent without predetermined knowledge of the end-member spectra.

  11. Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parmenter, R.R.; Yates, Terry L.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Dunnum, J.L.; Franklin, A.B.; Friggens, M.T.; Lubow, B.C.; Miller, M.; Olson, G.S.; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Pollard, J.; Rexstad, E.; Shenk, T.M.; Stanley, T.R.; White, Gary C.

    2003-01-01

    blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models Mb and Mbh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research

  12. Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malakar, Nabin K.; Lary, D. L.; Moore, A.; Gencaga, D.; Roscoe, B.; Albayrak, Arif; Petrenko, Maksym; Wei, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

  13. Estimating forest species abundance through linear unmixing of CHRIS/PROBA imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagakis, Stavros; Vanikiotis, Theofilos; Sykioti, Olga

    2016-09-01

    The advancing technology of hyperspectral remote sensing offers the opportunity of accurate land cover characterization of complex natural environments. In this study, a linear spectral unmixing algorithm that incorporates a novel hierarchical Bayesian approach (BI-ICE) was applied on two spatially and temporally adjacent CHRIS/PROBA images over a forest in North Pindos National Park (Epirus, Greece). The scope is to investigate the potential of this algorithm to discriminate two different forest species (i.e. beech - Fagus sylvatica, pine - Pinus nigra) and produce accurate species-specific abundance maps. The unmixing results were evaluated in uniformly distributed plots across the test site using measured fractions of each species derived by very high resolution aerial orthophotos. Landsat-8 images were also used to produce a conventional discrete-type classification map of the test site. This map was used to define the exact borders of the test site and compare the thematic information of the two mapping approaches (discrete vs abundance mapping). The required ground truth information, regarding training and validation of the applied mapping methodologies, was collected during a field campaign across the study site. Abundance estimates reached very good overall accuracy (R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.06). The most significant source of error in our results was due to the shadowing effects that were very intense in some areas of the test site due to the low solar elevation during CHRIS acquisitions. It is also demonstrated that the two mapping approaches are in accordance across pure and dense forest areas, but the conventional classification map fails to describe the natural spatial gradients of each species and the actual species mixture across the test site. Overall, the BI-ICE algorithm presented increased potential to unmix challenging objects with high spectral similarity, such as different vegetation species, under real and not optimum acquisition conditions. Its

  14. Estimating species - area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling.

    PubMed

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F; Royle, J Andrew; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-07-01

    Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a

  15. Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

    2016-01-01

    Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

  16. Estimates of Abundance and Trend of Chilean Blue Whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile

    PubMed Central

    Cabrera, Elsa; Carlson, Carole A.; Brownell, Robert L.

    2017-01-01

    Since 1970, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have been seen feeding in the waters off southern Chile during the summer and autumn (December to May). Investigation of the genetic, acoustic and morphological characteristics of these blue whales shows that they are a distinct but unnamed subspecies, called the Chilean blue whales. Photo-identification surveys have been conducted in the waters off northwestern Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile from 2004–2012 and Isla Chañaral, central Chile in 2012. Over this time, 1,070 blue whales were encountered yielding, after photo-quality control, 318 and 267 unique photographs of the left and right side of the flank respectively. Using mark-recapture analysis of left and right side photographs collected from Isla Grande de Chiloé (2004–2012), open population models estimate that ~570–760 whales are feeding seasonally in this region. POPAN superpopulation abundance estimates for the same feeding ground in 2012 are 762 (95% confidence intervals, CI = 638–933) and 570 (95% CI 475–705) for left and right side datasets respectively, very similar to results from closed population models. Estimates of trend revealed strong variation in abundance, peaking in 2009 and [suggesting] fluctuating use in the survey area over time, likely related to the density of their prey. High inter-annual return rates suggest a degree of site-fidelity of individuals to Isla Grande de Chiloé and that the number of whales using this feeding ground is relatively small. PMID:28081160

  17. Covariation of Peptide Abundances Accurately Reflects Protein Concentration Differences*

    PubMed Central

    Pirmoradian, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    Most implementations of mass spectrometry-based proteomics involve enzymatic digestion of proteins, expanding the analysis to multiple proteolytic peptides for each protein. Currently, there is no consensus of how to summarize peptides' abundances to protein concentrations, and such efforts are complicated by the fact that error control normally is applied to the identification process, and do not directly control errors linking peptide abundance measures to protein concentration. Peptides resulting from suboptimal digestion or being partially modified are not representative of the protein concentration. Without a mechanism to remove such unrepresentative peptides, their abundance adversely impacts the estimation of their protein's concentration. Here, we present a relative quantification approach, Diffacto, that applies factor analysis to extract the covariation of peptides' abundances. The method enables a weighted geometrical average summarization and automatic elimination of incoherent peptides. We demonstrate, based on a set of controlled label-free experiments using standard mixtures of proteins, that the covariation structure extracted by the factor analysis accurately reflects protein concentrations. In the 1% peptide-spectrum match-level FDR data set, as many as 11% of the peptides have abundance differences incoherent with the other peptides attributed to the same protein. If not controlled, such contradicting peptide abundance have a severe impact on protein quantifications. When adding the quantities of each protein's three most abundant peptides, we note as many as 14% of the proteins being estimated as having a negative correlation with their actual concentration differences between samples. Diffacto reduced the amount of such obviously incorrectly quantified proteins to 1.6%. Furthermore, by analyzing clinical data sets from two breast cancer studies, our method revealed the persistent proteomic signatures linked to three subtypes of breast cancer

  18. Estimating wetland vegetation abundance from Landsat-8 operational land imager imagery: a comparison between linear spectral mixture analysis and multinomial logit modeling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Min; Gong, Zhaoning; Zhao, Wenji; Pu, Ruiliang; Liu, Ke

    2016-01-01

    Mapping vegetation abundance by using remote sensing data is an efficient means for detecting changes of an eco-environment. With Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI) imagery acquired on July 31, 2013, both linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) and multinomial logit model (MNLM) methods were applied to estimate and assess the vegetation abundance in the Wild Duck Lake Wetland in Beijing, China. To improve mapping vegetation abundance and increase the number of endmembers in spectral mixture analysis, normalized difference vegetation index was extracted from OLI imagery along with the seven reflective bands of OLI data for estimating the vegetation abundance. Five endmembers were selected, which include terrestrial plants, aquatic plants, bare soil, high albedo, and low albedo. The vegetation abundance mapping results from Landsat OLI data were finally evaluated by utilizing a WorldView-2 multispectral imagery. Similar spatial patterns of vegetation abundance produced by both fully constrained LSMA algorithm and MNLM methods were observed: higher vegetation abundance levels were distributed in agricultural and riparian areas while lower levels in urban/built-up areas. The experimental results also indicate that the MNLM model outperformed the LSMA algorithm with smaller root mean square error (0.0152 versus 0.0252) and higher coefficient of determination (0.7856 versus 0.7214) as the MNLM model could handle the nonlinear reflection phenomenon better than the LSMA with mixed pixels.

  19. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    PubMed Central

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; Breitbart, Mya; Edwards, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set of publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. We propose adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution. PMID:26005436

  20. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    DOE PAGES

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia; ...

    2015-05-08

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set ofmore » publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. By adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution.« less

  1. Multidimensional metrics for estimating phage abundance, distribution, gene density, and sequence coverage in metagenomes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Aziz, Ramy K.; Dwivedi, Bhakti; Akhter, Sajia

    Phages are the most abundant biological entities on Earth and play major ecological roles, yet the current sequenced phage genomes do not adequately represent their diversity, and little is known about the abundance and distribution of these sequenced genomes in nature. Although the study of phage ecology has benefited tremendously from the emergence of metagenomic sequencing, a systematic survey of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems is still lacking, and fundamental questions about phage biology, lifestyle, and ecology remain unanswered. To address these questions and improve comparative analysis of phages in different metagenomes, we screened a core set ofmore » publicly available metagenomic samples for sequences related to completely sequenced phages using the web tool, Phage Eco-Locator. We then adopted and deployed an array of mathematical and statistical metrics for a multidimensional estimation of the abundance and distribution of phage genes and genomes in various ecosystems. Experiments using those metrics individually showed their usefulness in emphasizing the pervasive, yet uneven, distribution of known phage sequences in environmental metagenomes. Using these metrics in combination allowed us to resolve phage genomes into clusters that correlated with their genotypes and taxonomic classes as well as their ecological properties. By adding this set of metrics to current metaviromic analysis pipelines, where they can provide insight regarding phage mosaicism, habitat specificity, and evolution.« less

  2. Comparison of day snorkeling, night snorkeling, and electrofishing to estimate bull trout abundance and size structure in a second-order Idaho stream

    Treesearch

    Russell F. Thurow; Daniel J. Schill

    1996-01-01

    Biologists lack sufficient information to develop protocols for sampling the abundance and size structure of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. We compared summer estimates of the abundance and size structure of bull trout in a second-order central Idaho stream, derived by day snorkeling, night snorkeling, and electrofishing. We also examined the influence of water...

  3. Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2010-01-01

    Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

  4. Abundance and biomass of herbivorous zooplankton off Kingston, Jamaica, with estimates of their annual production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarke, Cheryl; Roff, John C.

    1990-10-01

    During 1985-1986 weekly collections of zooplankton were made off Lime Cay, Jamaica, which is representative of the cays area off southern Jamaica. The dominant (non-copepod) herbivorous taxa, Larvacea, Thaliacea, Cladocera and Pteropoda, were enumerated, and their daily biomasses were estimated by direct weighing or from length-weight regressions. The dominant taxa, in abundance, were the Oikopleuridae and Fritillaridae (49·8% and 35·8%, respectively), but the dominant taxon in terms of biomass was Thalia democratica-on average 75·2% of the total. These herbivorous taxa generally exhibited pronounced variations in abundance which, with the exception of an inverse relationship between Fritillaria spp. and the picoplankton, were not correlated with any size fraction of the phytoplankton. Calculations suggest that, in total, these "other" herbivorous groups may equal the copepods in terms of annual production, and may on occasions exceed them by nearly three-fold.

  5. Estimation of biological parameters of marine organisms using linear and nonlinear acoustic scattering model-based inversion methods.

    PubMed

    Chu, Dezhang; Lawson, Gareth L; Wiebe, Peter H

    2016-05-01

    The linear inversion commonly used in fisheries and zooplankton acoustics assumes a constant inversion kernel and ignores the uncertainties associated with the shape and behavior of the scattering targets, as well as other relevant animal parameters. Here, errors of the linear inversion due to uncertainty associated with the inversion kernel are quantified. A scattering model-based nonlinear inversion method is presented that takes into account the nonlinearity of the inverse problem and is able to estimate simultaneously animal abundance and the parameters associated with the scattering model inherent to the kernel. It uses sophisticated scattering models to estimate first, the abundance, and second, the relevant shape and behavioral parameters of the target organisms. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the abundance, size, and behavior (tilt angle) parameters of marine animals (fish or zooplankton) can be accurately inferred from the inversion by using multi-frequency acoustic data. The influence of the singularity and uncertainty in the inversion kernel on the inversion results can be mitigated by examining the singular values for linear inverse problems and employing a non-linear inversion involving a scattering model-based kernel.

  6. Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

    PubMed Central

    Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which

  7. Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

    2016-06-17

    Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for

  8. Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Thomas, L.; Conn, P.B.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described and include distance sampling, multiple observers, time of detection, and repeated counts. The detection parameters estimated by these different approaches differ, leading to different interpretations of resulting estimates of density and abundance. Simultaneous use of combinations of these different inference approaches can not only lead to increased precision but also provides the ability to decompose components of the detection process. Recent efforts to test the efficacy of these different approaches using natural systems and a new bird radio test system provide sobering conclusions about the ability of observers to detect and localize birds in auditory surveys. Recent research is reported on efforts to deal with such potential sources of error as bird misclassification, measurement error, and density gradients. Methods for inference about spatial and temporal variation in avian abundance are outlined. Discussion topics include opinions about the need to estimate detection probability when drawing inference about avian abundance, methodological recommendations based on the current state of knowledge and suggestions for future research.

  9. Monitoring waterbird abundance in wetlands: The importance of controlling results for variation in water depth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolduc, F.; Afton, A.D.

    2008-01-01

    Wetland use by waterbirds is highly dependent on water depth, and depth requirements generally vary among species. Furthermore, water depth within wetlands often varies greatly over time due to unpredictable hydrological events, making comparisons of waterbird abundance among wetlands difficult as effects of habitat variables and water depth are confounded. Species-specific relationships between bird abundance and water depth necessarily are non-linear; thus, we developed a methodology to correct waterbird abundance for variation in water depth, based on the non-parametric regression of these two variables. Accordingly, we used the difference between observed and predicted abundances from non-parametric regression (analogous to parametric residuals) as an estimate of bird abundance at equivalent water depths. We scaled this difference to levels of observed and predicted abundances using the formula: ((observed - predicted abundance)/(observed + predicted abundance)) ?? 100. This estimate also corresponds to the observed:predicted abundance ratio, which allows easy interpretation of results. We illustrated this methodology using two hypothetical species that differed in water depth and wetland preferences. Comparisons of wetlands, using both observed and relative corrected abundances, indicated that relative corrected abundance adequately separates the effect of water depth from the effect of wetlands. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  10. Including independent estimates and uncertainty to quantify total abundance of fish migrating in a large river system: walleye (Sander vitreus) in the Maumee River, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Weimer, Eric J.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.

    2013-01-01

    Walleye (Sander vitreus) in Lake Erie is a valuable and migratory species that spawns in tributaries. We used hydroacoustic sampling, gill net sampling, and Bayesian state-space modeling to estimate the spawning stock abundance, characterize size and sex structure, and explore environmental factors cuing migration of walleye in the Maumee River for 2011 and 2012. We estimated the spawning stock abundance to be between 431,000 and 1,446,000 individuals in 2011 and between 386,400 and 857,200 individuals in 2012 (95% Bayesian credible intervals). A back-calculation from a concurrent larval fish study produced an estimate of 78,000 to 237,000 spawners for 2011. The sex ratio was skewed towards males early in the spawning season but approached 1:1 later, and larger individuals entered the river earlier in the season than smaller individuals. Walleye migration was greater during low river discharge and intermediate temperatures. Our approach to estimating absolute abundance and uncertainty as well as characterization of the spawning stock could improve assessment and management of this species, and our methodology is applicable to other diadromous populations.

  11. Spatial patterns of distribution, abundance, and species diversity of small odontocetes estimated using density surface modeling with line transect sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanaji, Yu; Okazaki, Makoto; Miyashita, Tomio

    2017-06-01

    Spatial patterns of distribution, abundance, and species diversity of small odontocetes including species in the Delphinidae and Phocoenidae families were investigated using long-term dedicated sighting survey data collected between 1983 and 2006 in the North Pacific. Species diversity indices were calculated from abundance estimated using density surface modeling of line-transect data. The estimated abundance ranged from 19,521 individuals in killer whale to 1,886,022 in pantropical spotted dolphin. The predicted density maps showed that the habitats of small odontocetes corresponded well with distinct oceanic domains. Species richness was estimated to be highest between 30 and 40°N where warm- and cold-water currents converge. Simpson's Diversity Index showed latitudinal diversity gradients of decreasing species numbers toward the poles. Higher diversity was also estimated in the coastal areas and the zonal areas around 35-42°N. Coastal-offshore gradients and latitudinal gradients are known for many taxa. The zonal areas around 35°N and 40°N coincide with the Kuroshio Current and its extension and the subarctic boundary, respectively. These results suggest that the species diversity of small odontocetes primarily follows general patterns of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients, while the confluence of faunas originating in distinct water masses increases species diversify in frontal waters around 30-40°N. Population densities tended to be higher for the species inhabiting higher latitudes, but were highest for intermediate latitudes at approximately 35-40°N. According to latitudinal gradients in water temperature and biological productivity, the costs for thermoregulation will decrease in warmer low latitudes, while feeding efficiency will increase in colder high latitudes. These trade-offs could optimize population density in intermediate latitudes.

  12. Fluorine Abundances in AGB Carbon Stars: New Results?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abia, C.; de Laverny, P.; Recio-Blanco, A.; Domínguez, I.; Cristallo, S.; Straniero, O.

    2009-09-01

    A recent reanalysis of the fluorine abundance in three Galactic Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) carbon stars (TX Psc, AQ Sgr and R Scl) by Abia et al. (2009) results in estimates of fluorine abundances systematically lower by ~0.8 dex on average, with respect to the sole previous estimates by Jorissen, Smith & Lambert (1992). The new F abundances are in better agreement with the predictions of full-network stellar models of low-mass (<3 Msolar) AGB stars.

  13. Lunar mare TiO2 abundances estimated from UV/Vis reflectance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Hiroyuki; Robinson, Mark S.; Lawrence, Samuel J.; Denevi, Brett W.; Hapke, Bruce; Jolliff, Bradley L.; Hiesinger, Harald

    2017-11-01

    The visible (400-700 nm) and near-infrared (700-2800 nm) reflectance of the lunar regolith is dominantly controlled by variations in the abundance of plagioclase, iron-bearing silicate minerals, opaque minerals (e.g., ilmenite), and maturation products (e.g., agglutinate glass, radiation-produced rims on soil grains, and Fe-metal). The same materials control reflectance into the near-UV (250-400 nm) with varying degrees of importance. A key difference is that while ilmenite is spectrally neutral in the visible to near-infrared, it exhibits a diagnostic upturn in reflectance in the near-UV, at wavelengths shorter than about 450 nm. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide Angle Camera (WAC) filters were specifically designed to take advantage of this spectral feature to enable more accurate mapping of ilmenite within mare soils than previously possible. Using the reflectance measured at 321 and 415 nm during 62 months of repeated near-global WAC observations, first we found a linear correlation between the TiO2 contents of the lunar soil samples and the 321/415 nm ratio of each sample return site. We then used the coefficients from the linear regression and the near-global WAC multispectral mosaic to derive a new TiO2 map. The average TiO2 content is 3.9 wt% for the 17 major maria. The highest TiO2 values were found in Mare Tranquillitatis (∼12.6 wt%) and Oceanus Procellarum (∼11.6 wt%). Regions contaminated by highland ejecta, lunar swirls, and the low-TiO2 maria (e.g., Mare Frigoris, the northeastern units of Mare Imbrium) exhibit very low TiO2 values (<2 wt%). We find that the Clementine visible to near-infrared based TiO2 maps (Lucey et al., 2000) have systematically higher values relative to the WAC estimates. The Lunar Prospector Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) TiO2 map is consistent with the WAC TiO2 map, although there are local offsets possibly due to the different depth sensitivities and large pixel scale of the GRS relative to the WAC. We find a wide

  14. A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

    PubMed

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

    2016-08-01

    The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Estimating Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus) abundance in the Lamoille River, Vermont, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chellman, Isaac C.; Parrish, Donna; Donovan, Therese M.

    2017-01-01

    The Mudpuppy (Necturus maculosus) is classified as a Species of Greatest Conservation Need by the state of Vermont. There is concern regarding status of populations in the Lake Champlain basin because of habitat alteration and potential effects of 3-trifluromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM), a chemical used to control Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). The purpose of our research was to assess Mudpuppy capture methods and abundance in the Lamoille River, Vermont, USA. We sampled Mudpuppies under a mark-recapture framework, using modified, baited minnow traps set during two winter-spring periods. We marked each Mudpuppy with a passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag and released individuals after collecting morphological measurements. We collected 80 individuals during 2,581 trap days in 2008–2009 (year 1), and 81 individuals during 3,072 trap days in 2009–2010 (year 2). We estimated abundance from spring trapping periods in 2009 and 2010, during which capture rates were sufficient for analysis. Capture probability was low (< 0.04), but highest following precipitation events in spring, during periods of higher river flow, when water temperatures were approximately 3 to 6° C. During October 2009, management agencies treated the Lamoille River with TFM. Surveyors recovered more than 500 dead Mudpuppies during the post-treatment assessment. Overall, Mudpuppy captures did not change between sampling periods; however, we captured fewer females during year 2 compared to year 1, and the sex ratio changed from 0.79:1 (M:F) during year 1 to 3:1 (M:F) during year 2. Our data may help wildlife managers assess population status of Mudpuppies in conjunction with fisheries management techniques.

  16. Associations of hypoosmotic swelling test, relative sperm volume shift, aquaporin7 mRNA abundance and bull fertility estimates.

    PubMed

    Kasimanickam, R K; Kasimanickam, V R; Arangasamy, A; Kastelic, J P

    2017-02-01

    Mammalian sperm are exposed to a natural hypoosmotic environment during male-to-female reproductive tract transition; although this activates sperm motility in vivo, excessive swelling can harm sperm structure and function. Aquaporins (AQPs) is a family of membrane-channel proteins implicated in sperm osmoregulation. The objective was to determine associations among relative sperm volume shift, hypoosmotic swelling test (HOST), sperm aquaporin (AQP) 7 mRNA abundances, and sire conception rate (SCR; fertility estimate) in Holstein bulls at a commercial artificial insemination center. Three or four sires for each full point SCR score from -4 to +4 were included. Each SCR estimate for study bulls (N = 30) was based on > 500 services (mean ± SEM) of 725 ± 13 services/sire). Sperm from a single collection day (two ejaculates) from these commercial Holstein bulls were used. Relative mRNA expression of AQP7 in sperm was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Mean relative sperm volume shift and percentage of sperm reacted in a HOST (% HOST) were determined (400 sperm per bull) after incubating in isoosmotic (300 mOsm/kg) and hypoosmotic (100 mOsm/kg) solutions for 30 min. There was no correlation between %HOST and SCR (r = 0.28 P > 0.1). However, there was a positive correlation between relative sperm volume shift and SCR (r = 0.65, P < 0.05). Furthermore, AQP7 mRNA abundance was positively correlated to both relative volume shift (r = 0.73; P < 0.05) and to SCR (r = 0.67; P < 0.05). The mRNA expressions of AQP7 and relative sperm volume shift differed (P < 0.05) among low- (<2 SCR), average- (-2 to +2) and high- (>2) fertility sire groups. In conclusion, bulls with higher SCR had significantly greater AQP7 mRNA abundance in frozen-thawed sperm. This plausibly contributed to greater regulation of sperm volume shift, which apparently conferred protection from detrimental swelling and impaired functions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All

  17. Assessing relative abundance and reproductive success of shrubsteppe raptors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lehman, Robert N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.

    1998-01-01

    From 1991-1994, we quantified relative abundance and reproductive success of the Ferruginous Hawk (Buteo regalis), Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Burrowing Owl (Speotytoc unicularia), and Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) on the shrubsteppe plateaus (benchlands) in and near the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in southwestern Idaho. To assess relative abundance, we searched randomly selected plots using four sampling methods: point counts, line transects, and quadrats of two sizes. On a persampling-effort basis, transects were slightly more effective than point counts and quadrats for locating raptor nests (3.4 pairs detected/100 h of effort vs. 2.2-3.1 pairs). Random sampling using quadrats failed to detect a Short-eared Owl population increase from 1993 to 1994. To evaluate nesting success, we tried to determine reproductive outcome for all nesting attempts located during random, historical, and incidental nest searches. We compared nesting success estimates based on all nesting attempts, on attempts found during incubation, and the Mayfield model. Most pairs used to evaluate success were pairs found incidentally. Visits to historical nesting areas yielded the highest number of pairs per sampling effort (14.6/100 h), but reoccupancy rates for most species decreased through time. Estimates based on all attempts had the highest sample sizes but probably overestimated success for all species except the Ferruginous Hawk. Estimates of success based on nesting attempts found during incubation had the lowest sample sizes. All three methods yielded biased nesting snccess estimates for the Northern Harrier and Short-eared Owl. The estimate based on pairs found during incubation probably provided the least biased estimate for the Burrowing Owl. Assessments of nesting success were hindered by difficulties in confirming egg laying and nesting success for all species except the Ferruginous hawk.

  18. Size-Based Hydroacoustic Measures of Within-Season Fish Abundance in a Boreal Freshwater Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Pollom, Riley A.; Rose, George A.

    2015-01-01

    Eleven sequential size-based hydroacoustic surveys conducted with a 200 kHz split-beam transducer during the summers of 2011 and 2012 were used to quantify seasonal declines in fish abundance in a boreal reservoir in Manitoba, Canada. Fish densities were sufficiently low to enable single target resolution and tracking. Target strengths converted to log2-based size-classes indicated that smaller fish were consistently more abundant than larger fish by a factor of approximately 3 for each halving of length. For all size classes, in both years, abundance (natural log) declined linearly over the summer at rates that varied from -0.067.day-1 for the smallest fish to -0.016.day-1 for the largest (R2 = 0.24–0.97). Inter-annual comparisons of size-based abundance suggested that for larger fish (>16 cm), mean winter decline rates were an order of magnitude lower (-0.001.day-1) and overall survival higher (71%) than in the main summer fishing season (mean loss rate -0.038.day-1; survival 33%). We conclude that size-based acoustic survey methods have the potential to assess within-season fish abundance dynamics, and may prove useful in long-term monitoring of productivity and hence management of boreal aquatic ecosystems. PMID:25875467

  19. Are Antarctic minke whales unusually abundant because of 20th century whaling?

    PubMed

    Ruegg, Kristen C; Anderson, Eric C; Scott Baker, C; Vant, Murdoch; Jackson, Jennifer A; Palumbi, Stephen R

    2010-01-01

    Severe declines in megafauna worldwide illuminate the role of top predators in ecosystem structure. In the Antarctic, the Krill Surplus Hypothesis posits that the killing of more than 2 million large whales led to competitive release for smaller krill-eating species like the Antarctic minke whale. If true, the current size of the Antarctic minke whale population may be unusually high as an indirect result of whaling. Here, we estimate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale prior to whaling by sequencing 11 nuclear genetic markers from 52 modern samples purchased in Japanese meat markets. We use coalescent simulations to explore the potential influence of population substructure and find that even though our samples are drawn from a limited geographic area, our estimate reflects ocean-wide genetic diversity. Using Bayesian estimates of the mutation rate and coalescent-based analyses of genetic diversity across loci, we calculate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale to be 670,000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 374,000-1,150,000). Our estimate of long-term abundance is similar to, or greater than, contemporary abundance estimates, suggesting that managing Antarctic ecosystems under the assumption that Antarctic minke whales are unusually abundant is not warranted.

  20. Data reconstruction can improve abundance index estimation: An example using Taiwanese longline data for Pacific bluefin tuna

    PubMed Central

    Fukuda, Hiromu; Maunder, Mark N.

    2017-01-01

    Catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) is often the main piece of information used in fisheries stock assessment; however, the catch and effort data that are traditionally compiled from commercial logbooks can be incomplete or unreliable due to many reasons. Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF) is a seasonal target species in the Taiwanese longline fishery. Since 2010, detailed catch information for each PBF has been made available through a catch documentation scheme. However, previously, only market landing data with a low coverage of logbooks were available. Therefore, several nontraditional procedures were performed to reconstruct catch and effort data from many alternative data sources not directly obtained from fishers for 2001–2015: (1) Estimating the catch number from the landing weight for 2001–2003, for which the catch number information was incomplete, based on Monte Carlo simulation; (2) deriving fishing days for 2007–2009 from voyage data recorder data, based on a newly developed algorithm; and (3) deriving fishing days for 2001–2006 from vessel trip information, based on linear relationships between fishing and at-sea days. Subsequently, generalized linear mixed models were developed with the delta-lognormal assumption for standardizing the CPUE calculated from the reconstructed data, and three-stage model evaluation was performed using (1) Akaike and Bayesian information criteria to determine the most favorable variable composition of standardization models, (2) overall R2 via cross-validation to compare fitting performance between area-separated and area-combined standardizations, and (3) system-based testing to explore the consistency of the standardized CPUEs with auxiliary data in the PBF stock assessment model. The last stage of evaluation revealed high consistency among the data, thus demonstrating improvements in data reconstruction for estimating the abundance index, and consequently the stock assessment. PMID:28968434

  1. Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

    PubMed

    Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

    2017-01-01

    Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species

  2. Validation of abundance estimates from mark-recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

    Treesearch

    Amanda E. Rosenberger; Jason B. Dunham

    2005-01-01

    Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln–Peterson mark–recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams....

  3. Abundance trends and status of the Little Colorado River population of humpback chub

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Van Haverbeke, D. R.; Ward, D.; Johnstone, H.C.

    2006-01-01

    The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture-recapture-based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid-1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age-2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back-calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  4. Robust Abundance Estimation in Animal Surveys with Imperfect Detection

    EPA Science Inventory

    Surveys of animal abundance are central to the conservation and management of living natural resources. However, detection uncertainty complicates the sampling process of many species. One sampling method employed to deal with this problem is depletion (or removal) surveys in whi...

  5. Genomic Repeat Abundances Contain Phylogenetic Signal

    PubMed Central

    Dodsworth, Steven; Chase, Mark W.; Kelly, Laura J.; Leitch, Ilia J.; Macas, Jiří; Novák, Petr; Piednoël, Mathieu; Weiss-Schneeweiss, Hanna; Leitch, Andrew R.

    2015-01-01

    A large proportion of genomic information, particularly repetitive elements, is usually ignored when researchers are using next-generation sequencing. Here we demonstrate the usefulness of this repetitive fraction in phylogenetic analyses, utilizing comparative graph-based clustering of next-generation sequence reads, which results in abundance estimates of different classes of genomic repeats. Phylogenetic trees are then inferred based on the genome-wide abundance of different repeat types treated as continuously varying characters; such repeats are scattered across chromosomes and in angiosperms can constitute a majority of nuclear genomic DNA. In six diverse examples, five angiosperms and one insect, this method provides generally well-supported relationships at interspecific and intergeneric levels that agree with results from more standard phylogenetic analyses of commonly used markers. We propose that this methodology may prove especially useful in groups where there is little genetic differentiation in standard phylogenetic markers. At the same time as providing data for phylogenetic inference, this method additionally yields a wealth of data for comparative studies of genome evolution. PMID:25261464

  6. An aerial survey method to estimate sea otter abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, James L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Garner, Gerald W.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Laake, Jeffrey L.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Lyman L.; Robertson, Donna G.

    1999-01-01

    Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) occur in shallow coastal habitats and can be highly visible on the sea surface. They generally rest in groups and their detection depends on factors that include sea conditions, viewing platform, observer technique and skill, distance, habitat and group size. While visible on the surface, they are difficult to see while diving and may dive in response to an approaching survey platform. We developed and tested an aerial survey method that uses intensive searches within portions of strip transects to adjust for availability and sightability biases. Correction factors are estimated independently for each survey and observer. In tests of our method using shore-based observers, we estimated detection probabilities of 0.52-0.72 in standard strip-transects and 0.96 in intensive searches. We used the survey method in Prince William Sound, Alaska to estimate a sea otter population size of 9,092 (SE = 1422). The new method represents an improvement over various aspects of previous methods, but additional development and testing will be required prior to its broad application.

  7. A comparison of two collection methods for estimating abundance and parity of Anopheles albimanus in breeding sites and villages of southern Mexico.

    PubMed

    Ulloa, A; Rodríguez, M H; Rodríguez, A D; Roberts, D R

    1997-09-01

    The abundance and age structure of Anopheles albimanus populations were estimated by UV updraft light traps and human landing catches within villages and in nearby breeding sites of southern México. Four villages and 5 breeding sites were selected for the study. Light trap and human landing catches were simultaneously carried out in each breeding site and each village. Anopheles albimanus was the most abundant malaria vector caught in breeding sites and in villages. Significant differences in overall An. albimanus abundance among villages and among breeding sites were detected only by human landing catches. In both villages and breeding sites, more mosquitoes were captured by 1 human bait (34.3 +/- 6.3 and 14.6 +/- 2.9, respectively) than by one light trap (15.9 +/- 3.3 and 2.4 +/- 0.3 respectively) collection. After pooling, no significant differences were detected in the abundance estimated by each method in breeding sites and villages. A significant correlation of numbers of specimens between methods was detected. Age structure was different between samples from breeding sites and villages, with more gravid females collected in breeding sites, whereas more nulipars were collected in villages. By collection method, age structure was also different both in breeding sites and in villages. In breeding sites, the percentage of parous females was significantly higher in human landing catches, whereas the percentage of gravid females was significantly higher in light traps. In villages, only the percentage of gravid females was significantly higher in light traps. Our results suggests that UV light traps could be used to measure several entomological parameters of An. albimanus populations because both abundance variations and parity rates were similarly detected by both methods.

  8. Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis Canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a national park wilderness area

    Treesearch

    Kathryn A. Schoenecker; Mary Kay Watry; Laura E. Ellison; Michael K. Schwartz; Gordon L. Luikart

    2015-01-01

    Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population’s range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test...

  9. Utility and validation of day and night snorkel counts for estimating bull trout abundance in first-to-third order streams

    Treesearch

    Russell F. Thurow; James T. Peterson; John W. Guzevich

    2006-01-01

    Despite the widespread use of underwater observation to census stream-dwelling fishes, the accuracy of snorkeling methods has rarely been validated. We evaluated the efficiency of day and night snorkel counts for estimating the abundance of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in 215 sites within first- to third-order streams. We used a dual-gear...

  10. \\Space: A new code to estimate \\temp, \\logg, and elemental abundances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boeche, C.

    2016-09-01

    \\Space is a FORTRAN95 code that derives stellar parameters and elemental abundances from stellar spectra. To derive these parameters, \\Space does not measure equivalent widths of lines nor it uses templates of synthetic spectra, but it employs a new method based on a library of General Curve-Of-Growths. To date \\Space works on the wavelength range 5212-6860 Å and 8400-8921 Å, and at the spectral resolution R=2000-20000. Extensions of these limits are possible. \\Space is a highly automated code suitable for application to large spectroscopic surveys. A web front end to this service is publicly available at http://dc.g-vo.org/SP_ACE together with the library and the binary code.

  11. Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Firn, Jennifer; Moore, Joslin L.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Seabloom, Eric W.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harpole, W. Stanley; Cleland, Elsa E.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Knops, Johannes M.H.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Pyke, David A.; Farrell, Kelly A.; Bakker, John D.; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Adler, Peter B.; Collins, Scott L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Crawley, Michael J.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Hautier, Yann; Morgan, John W.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Kay, Adam; McCulley, Rebecca; Davies, Kendi F.; Stevens, Carly J.; Chu, Cheng-Jin; Holl, Karen D.; Klein, Julia A.; Fay, Phillip A.; Hagenah, Nicole; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Buckley, Yvonne M.

    2011-01-01

    Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites - grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.

  12. Distribution, abundance, and habitat associations of a large bivalve (Panopea generosa) in a eutrophic, fjord estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mcdonald, P. Sean; Essington, Timothy E.; Davis, Jonathan P.; Galloway, Aaron W.E.; Stevick, Bethany C.; Jensen, Gregory C.; VanBlaricom, Glenn R.; Armstrong, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Marine bivalves are important ecosystem constituents and frequently support valuable fisheries. In many nearshore areas, human disturbance—including declining habitat and water quality—can affect the distribution and abundance of bivalve populations, and complicate ecosystem and fishery management assessments. Infaunal bivalves, in particular, are frequently cryptic and difficult to detect; thus, assessing potential impacts on their populations requires suitable, scalable methods for estimating abundance and distribution. In this study, population size of a common benthic bivalve (the geoduck Panopea generosa) is estimated with a Bayesian habitat-based model fit to scuba and tethered camera data in Hood Canal, a fjord basin in Washington state. Densities declined more than two orders of magnitude along a north—south gradient, concomitant with patterns of deepwater dissolved oxygen, and intensity and duration of seasonal hypoxia. Across the basin, geoducks were most abundant in loose, unconsolidated, sand substrate. The current study demonstrates the utility of using scuba, tethered video, and habitat models to estimate the abundance and distribution of a large infaunal bivalve at a regional (385-km2) scale.

  13. Tungsten Abundances in Hawaiian Picrites: Implications for the Mantle Sources of Hawaiian Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ireland, T. J.; Arevalo, R. D.; Walker, R. J.; McDonough, W. F.

    2008-12-01

    Tungsten abundances have been measured in a suite of Hawaiian picrites (MgO >13 wt.%) from nine Hawaiian shield volcanoes (Mauna Kea, Mauna Loa, Hualalai, Loihi, Koolau, Kilauea, Kohala, Lanai and Molokai). Tungsten concentrations in the parental melts for these volcanoes have been estimated via the intersection of linear W-MgO trends with the putative MgO content of the parental melt (~16 wt.%). Tungsten behaves as a highly incompatible trace element in mafic to ultramafic systems; thus, given an independent assessment of the degree of partial melting for each volcanic center, the W abundances in their mantle sources can be determined. The mantle sources for Hualalai, Kilauea, Kohala and Loihi have non- uniform estimated W abundances of 11, 13, 16 and 27 ng/g, respectively, giving an average source abundance of 17±5 ng/g. This average source abundance is nearly six times more enriched than Depleted MORB Mantle (DMM: 3.0±2.3 ng/g) and slightly elevated relative to the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE: 13±10 ng/g). The relatively high abundances of W in the Hawaiian sources relative to the DMM can potentially be explained as a consequence of crustal recycling. For example, incorporation of 30% oceanic crust (30 ng/g W), including 3% sediment (1500 ng/g W), into a DMM source could create the W enrichment observed in the Loihi source, consistent with estimates from earlier models based on other trace elements and isotope systems. The Hualalai source, however, has also been suggested to contain a substantial recycled component, as implied by similarly radiogenic 187Os/188Os, yet this source has the lowest estimated W abundance among the volcanic centers studied. The conflict between these results may: 1) reflect chemical differences among recycled components, 2) indicate a more complex history for Hualalai samples, e.g. involvement of a melt percolation component, or 3) implicate other sources of W.

  14. Estimation of the Relative Abundance of Different Bacteroides and Prevotella Ribotypes in Gut Samples by Restriction Enzyme Profiling of PCR-Amplified 16S rRNA Gene Sequences

    PubMed Central

    Wood, Jacqueline; Scott, Karen P.; Avguštin, Gorazd; Newbold, C. James; Flint, Harry J.

    1998-01-01

    We describe an approach for determining the genetic composition of Bacteroides and Prevotella populations in gut contents based on selective amplification of 16S rRNA gene sequences (rDNA) followed by cleavage of the amplified material with restriction enzymes. The relative contributions of different ribotypes to total Bacteroides and Prevotella 16S rDNA are estimated after end labelling of one of the PCR primers, and the contribution of Bacteroides and Prevotella sequences to total eubacterial 16S rDNA is estimated by measuring the binding of oligonucleotide probes to amplified DNA. Bacteroides and Prevotella 16S rDNA accounted for between 12 and 62% of total eubacterial 16S rDNA in samples of ruminal contents from six sheep and a cow. Ribotypes 4, 5, 6, and 7, which include most cultivated rumen Prevotella strains, together accounted for between 20 and 86% of the total amplified Bacteroides and Prevotella rDNA in these samples. The most abundant Bacteroides or Prevotella ribotype in four animals, however, was ribotype 8, for which there is only one known cultured isolate, while ribotypes 1 and 2, which include many colonic Bacteroides spp., were the most abundant in two animals. This indicates that some abundant Bacteroides and Prevotella groups in the rumen are underrepresented among cultured rumen Prevotella isolates. The approach described here provides a rapid, convenient, and widely applicable method for comparing the genotypic composition of bacterial populations in gut samples. PMID:9758785

  15. The improvement of precision for estimating the abundance of standing dead trees using auxiliary information under the FIA pot design

    Treesearch

    Hong Su An; David W. MacFarlane; Christopher W. Woodall

    2012-01-01

    Standing dead trees are an important component of forest ecosystems. However, reliable estimates of standing dead tree population parameters can be difficult to obtain due to their low abundance and spatial and temporal variation. After 1999, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program began collecting data for standing dead trees at the Phase 2 stage of sampling....

  16. Estimating the spatial scales of landscape effects on abundance

    Treesearch

    Richard Chandler; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

    2016-01-01

    Spatial variation in abundance is influenced by local- and landscape-level environmental variables, but modeling landscape effects is challenging because the spatial scales of the relationships are unknown. Current approaches involve buffering survey locations with polygons of various sizes and using model selection to identify the best scale. The buffering...

  17. Using Genotype Abundance to Improve Phylogenetic Inference

    PubMed Central

    Mesin, Luka; Victora, Gabriel D; Minin, Vladimir N; Matsen, Frederick A

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Modern biological techniques enable very dense genetic sampling of unfolding evolutionary histories, and thus frequently sample some genotypes multiple times. This motivates strategies to incorporate genotype abundance information in phylogenetic inference. In this article, we synthesize a stochastic process model with standard sequence-based phylogenetic optimality, and show that tree estimation is substantially improved by doing so. Our method is validated with extensive simulations and an experimental single-cell lineage tracing study of germinal center B cell receptor affinity maturation. PMID:29474671

  18. Primordial helium abundance determination using sulphur as metallicity tracer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández, Vital; Terlevich, Elena; Díaz, Angeles I.; Terlevich, Roberto; Rosales-Ortega, F. F.

    2018-05-01

    The primordial helium abundance YP is calculated using sulphur as metallicity tracer in the classical methodology (with YP as an extrapolation of Y to zero metals). The calculated value, YP, S = 0.244 ± 0.006, is in good agreement with the estimate from the Planck experiment, as well as, determinations in the literature using oxygen as the metallicity tracer. The chemical analysis includes the sustraction of the nebular continuum and of the stellar continuum computed from simple stellar population synthesis grids. The S+2 content is measured from the near infrared [SIII]λλ9069Å, 9532Å lines, while an ICF(S3 +) is proposed based on the Ar3 +/Ar2 + fraction. Finally, we apply a multivariable linear regression using simultaneously oxygen, nitrogen and sulphur abundances for the same sample to determine the primordial helium abundance resulting in YP - O, N, S = 0.245 ± 0.007.

  19. One Percent Determination of the Primordial Deuterium Abundance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooke, Ryan J.; Pettini, Max; Steidel, Charles C.

    2018-03-01

    We report a reanalysis of a near-pristine absorption system, located at a redshift {z}abs}=2.52564 toward the quasar Q1243+307, based on the combination of archival and new data obtained with the HIRES echelle spectrograph on the Keck telescope. This absorption system, which has an oxygen abundance [O/H] = ‑2.769 ± 0.028 (≃1/600 of the solar abundance), is among the lowest metallicity systems currently known where a precise measurement of the deuterium abundance is afforded. Our detailed analysis of this system concludes, on the basis of eight D I absorption lines, that the deuterium abundance of this gas cloud is {log}}10({{D}}/{{H}})=-4.622+/- 0.015, which is in very good agreement with the results previously reported by Kirkman et al., but with an improvement on the precision of this single measurement by a factor of ∼3.5. Combining this new estimate with our previous sample of six high precision and homogeneously analyzed D/H measurements, we deduce that the primordial deuterium abundance is {log}}10{({{D}}/{{H}})}{{P}}=-4.5974+/- 0.0052 or, expressed as a linear quantity, {10}5{({{D}}/{{H}})}{{P}}=2.527+/- 0.030; this value corresponds to a one percent determination of the primordial deuterium abundance. Combining our result with a big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) calculation that uses the latest nuclear physics input, we find that the baryon density derived from BBN agrees to within 2σ of the latest results from the Planck cosmic microwave background data. Based on observations collected at the W.M. Keck Observatory which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W.M. Keck Foundation.

  20. Catalysts Based on Earth-Abundant Metals for Visible Light-Driven Water Oxidation Reaction.

    PubMed

    Lin, Junqi; Han, Qing; Ding, Yong

    2018-06-04

    Exploration of water oxidation catalyst (WOC) with excellent performance is the key for the overall water splitting reaction, which is a feasible strategy to convert solar energy to chemical energy. Although some compounds composed of noble metals, mainly Ru and Ir, have been reported to catalyze water oxidation with high efficiency, catalysts based on low-cost and earth-abundant transition metals are essential for realizing economical and large-scale light-driven water splitting. Various WOCs containing earth-abundant metals (mainly Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu) have been utilized for visible light-driven water oxidation in recent years. In this Personal Account, we summarize our recent developments in WOCs based on earth-abundant transition metals including polyoxometalates (POMs), metal oxides or bimetal oxides, and metal complexes containing multidentate ligand scaffolds for visible light-driven water oxidation reaction. © 2018 The Chemical Society of Japan & Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. The Camera-Based Assessment Survey System (C-BASS): A towed camera platform for reef fish abundance surveys and benthic habitat characterization in the Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lembke, Chad; Grasty, Sarah; Silverman, Alex; Broadbent, Heather; Butcher, Steven; Murawski, Steven

    2017-12-01

    An ongoing challenge for fisheries management is to provide cost-effective and timely estimates of habitat stratified fish densities. Traditional approaches use modified commercial fishing gear (such as trawls and baited hooks) that have biases in species selectivity and may also be inappropriate for deployment in some habitat types. Underwater visual and optical approaches offer the promise of more precise and less biased assessments of relative fish abundance, as well as direct estimates of absolute fish abundance. A number of video-based approaches have been developed and the technology for data acquisition, calibration, and synthesis has been developing rapidly. Beginning in 2012, our group of engineers and researchers at the University of South Florida has been working towards the goal of completing large scale, video-based surveys in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This paper discusses design considerations and development of a towed camera system for collection of video-based data on commercially and recreationally important reef fishes and benthic habitat on the West Florida Shelf. Factors considered during development included potential habitat types to be assessed, sea-floor bathymetry, vessel support requirements, personnel requirements, and cost-effectiveness of system components. This regional-specific effort has resulted in a towed platform called the Camera-Based Assessment Survey System, or C-BASS, which has proven capable of surveying tens of kilometers of video transects per day and has the ability to cost-effective population estimates of reef fishes and coincident benthic habitat classification.

  2. Estimating mineral abundances of clay and gypsum mixtures using radiative transfer models applied to visible-near infrared reflectance spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, K. M.; Milliken, R. E.; Li, S.

    2016-10-01

    Quantitative mineral abundances of lab derived clay-gypsum mixtures were estimated using a revised Hapke VIS-NIR and Shkuratov radiative transfer model. Montmorillonite-gypsum mixtures were used to test the effectiveness of the model in distinguishing between subtle differences in minor absorption features that are diagnostic of mineralogy in the presence of strong H2O absorptions that are not always diagnostic of distinct phases or mineral abundance. The optical constants (k-values) for both endmembers were determined from bi-directional reflectance spectra measured in RELAB as well as on an ASD FieldSpec3 in a controlled laboratory setting. Multiple size fractions were measured in order to derive a single k-value from optimization of the optical path length in the radiative transfer models. It is shown that with careful experimental conditions, optical constants can be accurately determined from powdered samples using a field spectrometer, consistent with previous studies. Variability in the montmorillonite hydration level increased the uncertainties in the derived k-values, but estimated modal abundances for the mixtures were still within 5% of the measured values. Results suggest that the Hapke model works well in distinguishing between hydrated phases that have overlapping H2O absorptions and it is able to detect gypsum and montmorillonite in these simple mixtures where they are present at levels of ∼10%. Care must be taken however to derive k-values from a sample with appropriate H2O content relative to the modeled spectra. These initial results are promising for the potential quantitative analysis of orbital remote sensing data of hydrated minerals, including more complex clay and sulfate assemblages such as mudstones examined by the Curiosity rover in Gale crater.

  3. Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Wallingford, Bret D.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.

    2012-01-01

    The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5 yr old) and adult (≥2.5 yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36–0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26–0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates. 

  4. Distribution and abundance of American eels in the White Oak River estuary, North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hightower, J.E.; Nesnow, C.

    2006-01-01

    Apparent widespread declines in abundance of Anguilla rostrata (American eel) have reinforced the need for information regarding its life history and status. We used commercial eel pots and crab (peeler) pots to examine the distribution, condition, and abundance of American eels within the White Oak River estuary, NC, during summers of 2002-2003. Catch of American eels per overnight set was 0.35 (SE = 0.045) in 2002 and 0.49 (SE = 0.044) in 2003. There was not a significant linear relationship between catch per set and depth in 2002 (P = 0.31, depth range 0.9-3.4 m) or 2003 (P = 0.18, depth range 0.6-3.4 m). American eels from the White Oak River were in good condition, based on the slope of a length-weight relationship (3.41) compared to the median slope (3.15) from other systems. Estimates of population density from grid sampling in 2003 (300 mm and larger: 4.0-13.8 per ha) were similar to estimates for the Hudson River estuary, but substantially less than estimates from other (smaller) systems including tidal creeks within estuaries. Density estimates from coastal waters can be used with harvest records to examine whether overfishing has contributed to the recent apparent declines in American eel abundance.

  5. Abundance patterns of evolved stars with Hipparcos parallaxes and ages based on the APOGEE data base

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, Y. P.; Chen, Y. Q.; Zhao, G.; Bari, M. A.; Zhao, J. K.; Tan, K. F.

    2018-01-01

    We investigate the abundance patterns for four groups of stars at evolutionary phases from sub-giant to red clump (RC) and trace the chemical evolution of the disc by taking 21 individual elemental abundances from APOGEE and ages from evolutionary models with the aid of Hipparcos distances. We find that the abundances of six elements (Si, S, K, Ca, Mn and Ni) are similar from the sub-giant phase to the RC phase. In particular, we find that a group of stars with low [C/N] ratios, mainly from the second sequence of RC stars, show that there is a difference in the transfer efficiency of the C-N-O cycle between the main and the secondary RC sequences. We also compare the abundance patterns of C-N, Mg-Al and Na-O with giant stars in globular clusters from APOGEE and find that field stars follow similar patterns as M107, a metal-rich globular cluster with [M/H] ∼- 1.0, which shows that the self-enrichment mechanism represented by strong C-N, Mg-Al and Na-O anti-correlations may not be important as the metallicity reaches [M/H] > -1.0 dex. Based on the abundances of above-mentioned six elements and [Fe/H], we investigate age versus abundance relations and find some old super-metal-rich stars in our sample. Their properties of old age and being rich in metal are evidence for stellar migration. The age versus metallicity relations in low-[α/M] bins show unexpectedly positive slopes. We propose that the fresh metal-poor gas infalling on to the Galactic disc may be the precursor for this unexpected finding.

  6. Upscaling species richness and abundances in tropical forests

    PubMed Central

    Tovo, Anna; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Favretti, Marco; Volkov, Igor; Banavar, Jayanth R.; Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos

    2017-01-01

    The quantification of tropical tree biodiversity worldwide remains an open and challenging problem. More than two-fifths of the number of worldwide trees can be found either in tropical or in subtropical forests, but only ≈0.000067% of species identities are known. We introduce an analytical framework that provides robust and accurate estimates of species richness and abundances in biodiversity-rich ecosystems, as confirmed by tests performed on both in silico–generated and real forests. Our analysis shows that the approach outperforms other methods. In particular, we find that upscaling methods based on the log-series species distribution systematically overestimate the number of species and abundances of the rare species. We finally apply our new framework on 15 empirical tropical forest plots and quantify the minimum percentage cover that should be sampled to achieve a given average confidence interval in the upscaled estimate of biodiversity. Our theoretical framework confirms that the forests studied are comprised of a large number of rare or hyper-rare species. This is a signature of critical-like behavior of species-rich ecosystems and can provide a buffer against extinction. PMID:29057324

  7. Abundances of sulfur in the Milky Way Disk from Peimbert Type II planetary nebulae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milingo, Jacquelynne Brenda

    2000-08-01

    Sulfur abundance gradients and heavy element ratios for the Milky Way Disk are constructed based upon newly acquired spectrophotometry of Type II planetary nebulae (PN). These spectra extend from 3600-9600 angstroms allowing us to use the [SIII] 9069 and 9532 angstrom lines to improve upon earlier sulfur abundance estimates. Considering a significant portion of sulfur in PN exists in the S(+2) ionization stage (and higher) this method should allow us to extrapolate more reliable total element abundance from ionic abundances. Given the progenitor mass and location of Type II PN (close to the Galactic disk), this sample of objects is free of nucleosynthetic self-contamination and thus their S abundances in particular are expected to reflect levels of these elements in the interstellar medium at the time of PN progenitor formation. These sulfur abundances provide constraints for studying various aspects of GCE such as massive star yields and the distribution of S across the Milky Way disk.

  8. Small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of plastic pellets on sandy beaches: Methodological considerations for estimating the input of microplastics.

    PubMed

    Moreira, Fabiana Tavares; Prantoni, Alessandro Lívio; Martini, Bruno; de Abreu, Michelle Alves; Stoiev, Sérgio Biato; Turra, Alexander

    2016-01-15

    Microplastics such as pellets have been reported for many years on sandy beaches around the globe. Nevertheless, high variability is observed in their estimates and distribution patterns across the beach environment are still to be unravelled. Here, we investigate the small-scale temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of pellets in the intertidal zone of a sandy beach and evaluate factors that can increase the variability in data sets. The abundance of pellets was estimated during twelve consecutive tidal cycles, identifying the position of the high tide between cycles and sampling drift-lines across the intertidal zone. We demonstrate that beach dynamic processes such as the overlap of strandlines and artefacts of the methods can increase the small-scale variability. The results obtained are discussed in terms of the methodological considerations needed to understand the distribution of pellets in the beach environment, with special implications for studies focused on patterns of input. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Effect of timing of count events on estimates of sea lice abundance and interpretation of effectiveness following bath treatments.

    PubMed

    Gautam, R; Vanderstichel, R; Boerlage, A S; Revie, C W; Hammell, K L

    2017-03-01

    Effectiveness of sea lice bath treatment is often assessed by comparing pre- and post-treatment counts. However, in practice, the post-treatment counting window varies from the day of treatment to several days after treatment. In this study, we assess the effect of post-treatment lag time on sea lice abundance estimates after chemical bath treatment using data from the sea lice data management program (Fish-iTrends) between 2010 and 2014. Data on two life stages, (i) adult female (AF) and (ii) pre-adult and adult male (PAAM), were aggregated at the cage level and log-transformed. Average sea lice counts by post-treatment lag time were computed for AF and PAAM and compared relative to treatment day, using linear mixed models. There were 720 observations (treatment events) that uniquely matched pre- and post-treatment counts from 53 farms. Lag time had a significant effect on the estimated sea lice abundance, which was influenced by season and pre-treatment sea lice levels. During summer, sea lice were at a minimum when counted 1 day post-treatment irrespective of pre-treatment sea lice levels, whereas in the spring and autumn, low levels were observed for PAAM over a longer interval of time, provided the pre-treatment sea lice levels were >5-10. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Measuring β-diversity with species abundance data.

    PubMed

    Barwell, Louise J; Isaac, Nick J B; Kunin, William E

    2015-07-01

    Baselga R turn , βBaselga B-C turn and βsim measured purely species turnover and were independent of nestedness. Among the other metrics, sensitivity to nestedness varied >4-fold. Our results indicate large amounts of redundancy among existing β-diversity metrics, whilst the estimation of unseen shared and unshared species is lacking and should be addressed in the design of new abundance-based metrics. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  11. Re-examination of the relationship between marine virus and microbial cell abundances.

    PubMed

    Wigington, Charles H; Sonderegger, Derek; Brussaard, Corina P D; Buchan, Alison; Finke, Jan F; Fuhrman, Jed A; Lennon, Jay T; Middelboe, Mathias; Suttle, Curtis A; Stock, Charles; Wilson, William H; Wommack, K Eric; Wilhelm, Steven W; Weitz, Joshua S

    2016-01-25

    Marine viruses are critical drivers of ocean biogeochemistry, and their abundances vary spatiotemporally in the global oceans, with upper estimates exceeding 10(8) per ml. Over many years, a consensus has emerged that virus abundances are typically tenfold higher than microbial cell abundances. However, the true explanatory power of a linear relationship and its robustness across diverse ocean environments is unclear. Here, we compile 5,671 microbial cell and virus abundance estimates from 25 distinct marine surveys and find substantial variation in the virus-to-microbial cell ratio, in which a 10:1 model has either limited or no explanatory power. Instead, virus abundances are better described as nonlinear, power-law functions of microbial cell abundances. The fitted scaling exponents are typically less than 1, implying that the virus-to-microbial cell ratio decreases with microbial cell density, rather than remaining fixed. The observed scaling also implies that viral effect sizes derived from 'representative' abundances require substantial refinement to be extrapolated to regional or global scales.

  12. From pest data to abundance-based risk maps combining eco-physiological knowledge, weather, and habitat variability.

    PubMed

    Lacasella, Federica; Marta, Silvio; Singh, Aditya; Stack Whitney, Kaitlin; Hamilton, Krista; Townsend, Phil; Kucharik, Christopher J; Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio

    2017-03-01

    Noxious species, i.e., crop pest or invasive alien species, are major threats to both natural and managed ecosystems. Invasive pests are of special importance, and knowledge about their distribution and abundance is fundamental to minimize economic losses and prioritize management activities. Occurrence models are a common tool used to identify suitable zones and map priority areas (i.e., risk maps) for noxious species management, although they provide a simplified description of species dynamics (i.e., no indication on species density). An alternative is to use abundance models, but translating abundance data into risk maps is often challenging. Here, we describe a general framework for generating abundance-based risk maps using multi-year pest data. We used an extensive data set of 3968 records collected between 2003 and 2013 in Wisconsin during annual surveys of soybean aphid (SBA), an exotic invasive pest in this region. By using an integrative approach, we modelled SBA responses to weather, seasonal, and habitat variability using generalized additive models (GAMs). Our models showed good to excellent performance in predicting SBA occurrence and abundance (TSS = 0.70, AUC = 0.92; R 2  = 0.63). We found that temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days were the main drivers of SBA trends. In addition, a significant positive relationship between SBA abundance and the availability of overwintering habitats was observed. Our models showed aphid populations were also sensitive to thresholds associated with high and low temperatures, likely related to physiological tolerances of the insects. Finally, the resulting aphid predictions were integrated using a spatial prioritization algorithm ("Zonation") to produce an abundance-based risk map for the state of Wisconsin that emphasized the spatiotemporal consistency and magnitude of past infestation patterns. This abundance-based risk map can provide information on potential foci of pest outbreaks where

  13. Histogrammatic Method for Determining Relative Abundance of Input Gas Pulse

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandrake, Lukas; Bornstein, Benjamin J.; Madzunkov, Stojan; MacAskill, John A.

    2012-01-01

    To satisfy the Major Constituents Analysis (MCA) requirements for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor (VCAM), this software analyzes the relative abundance ratios for N2, O2, Ar, and CO2 as a function of time and constructs their best-estimate mean. A histogram is first built of all abundance ratios for each of the species vs time. The abundance peaks corresponding to the intended measurement and any obfuscating background are then separated via standard peak-finding techniques in histogram space. A voting scheme is then used to include/exclude this particular time sample in the final average based on its membership to the intended measurement or the background population. This results in a robust and reasonable estimate of the abundance of trace components such as CO2 and Ar even in the presence of obfuscating backgrounds internal to the VCAM device. VCAM can provide a means for monitoring the air within the enclosed environments, such as the ISS (International Space Station), Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Lunar Habitat, or another vehicle traveling to Mars. Its miniature pre-concentrator, gas chromatograph (GC), and mass spectrometer can provide unbiased detection of a large number of organic species as well as MCA analysis. VCAM s software can identify the concentration of trace chemicals and whether the chemicals are on a targeted list of hazardous compounds. This innovation s performance and reliability on orbit, along with the ground team s assessment of its raw data and analysis results, will validate its technology for future use and development.

  14. High-resolution mapping of elemental abundances of the lunar regolith

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöhler, Christian; Berezhnoy, Alexey; Evans, Richard

    Many attempts have been made to derive elemental abundances of the lunar surface from mul-tispectral images (cf. e.g. [1]). The gamma ray spectrometer on board the Lunar Prospector spacecraft (LP GRS) provided the first "direct" global measurements of lunar elemental abun-dances including Fe, Th (15 km surface resolution), Ti, K, Sm (60 km), Al, O, Si, Mg, Ca, and U (150 km). In this study we rely on the elemental abundance estimation method intro-duced in [2], which is based on spectral features derived from the Clementine UVVIS+NIR data set and estimates the abundances of Ca, Al, Fe, Mg, Ti, and O by applying a second order polynomial regression model with the corresponding LP GRS abundances as "ground truth". The regarded spectral features are the continuum slope, the FWHM of the ferrous absorption trough near 1000 nm after continuum division, and the absorption wavelengths and relative absorption depths (cf. [2,3] for details). A petrographic analysis is performed based on the abundances of the key elements Al, Fe, and Mg [4]. The relative abundances of the endmem-bers mare basalt, Mg-rich rock, and ferroan anorthosite are estimated using Fe-Mg and Al-Mg diagrams, where the endmember compositions are determined based on the three-endmember plane fitted in Al-Fe-Mg space to the elemental abundances at 150 km resolution obtained with the regression model. The root-mean-square deviation from the three-endmember plane is only 0.3 wt percent. Our petrographic map shows Mg-rich rocks in the Mare Frigoris region, on the edges of large maria, in the South Pole Aitken basin, and in some cryptomaria such as the Schiller-Schickard basin. The presence of Mg-rich rocks in Mare Frigoris explains the Fe and Ti depletion discussed in [5]. Furthermore, our analysis confirms that the basalts of eastern mare Frigoris have an atypically high Al content [6]. The region south of Lichtenberg and around Seleucus and Briggs in northwestern Oceanus Procellarum is characterised by

  15. RVC-CAL library for endmember and abundance estimation in hyperspectral image analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazcano López, R.; Madroñal Quintín, D.; Juárez Martínez, E.; Sanz Álvaro, C.

    2015-10-01

    Hyperspectral imaging (HI) collects information from across the electromagnetic spectrum, covering a wide range of wavelengths. Although this technology was initially developed for remote sensing and earth observation, its multiple advantages - such as high spectral resolution - led to its application in other fields, as cancer detection. However, this new field has shown specific requirements; for instance, it needs to accomplish strong time specifications, since all the potential applications - like surgical guidance or in vivo tumor detection - imply real-time requisites. Achieving this time requirements is a great challenge, as hyperspectral images generate extremely high volumes of data to process. Thus, some new research lines are studying new processing techniques, and the most relevant ones are related to system parallelization. In that line, this paper describes the construction of a new hyperspectral processing library for RVC-CAL language, which is specifically designed for multimedia applications and allows multithreading compilation and system parallelization. This paper presents the development of the required library functions to implement two of the four stages of the hyperspectral imaging processing chain--endmember and abundances estimation. The results obtained show that the library achieves speedups of 30%, approximately, comparing to an existing software of hyperspectral images analysis; concretely, the endmember estimation step reaches an average speedup of 27.6%, which saves almost 8 seconds in the execution time. It also shows the existence of some bottlenecks, as the communication interfaces among the different actors due to the volume of data to transfer. Finally, it is shown that the library considerably simplifies the implementation process. Thus, experimental results show the potential of a RVC-CAL library for analyzing hyperspectral images in real-time, as it provides enough resources to study the system performance.

  16. Abundance and distribution of feral pigs at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, 2010-2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hess, Steven C.; Leopold, Christina R.; Kendall, Steven J.

    2013-01-01

    The Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex has intensively managed feral pigs (Sus scrofa) and monitored feral pig presence with surveys of all managed areas since 1988. Results of all available data regarding pig management activities through 2004 were compiled and analyzed, but no further analyses had been conducted since then. The objective of this report was to analyze recent feral ungulate surveys at the Hakalau Forest Unit to determine current pig abundance and distribution. Activity indices for feral pigs, consisting of the presence of fresh or intermediate sign at 422 stations, each with approximately 20 sample plots, were compiled for years 2010–2013. A calibrated model based on the number of pigs removed from one management unit and concurrent activity surveys was applied to estimate pig abundance in other management units. Although point estimates appeared to decrease from 489.1 (±105.6) in 2010 to 407.6 (±88.0) in 2013, 95% confidence intervals overlapped, indicating no significant change in pig abundance within all management units. Nonetheless, there were significant declines in pig abundance over the four-year period within management units 1, 6, and 7. Areas where pig abundance remained high include the southern portion of Unit 2. Results of these surveys will be useful for directing management actions towards specific management units.

  17. Thresholds in the response of free-floating plant abundance to variation in hydraulic connectivity, nutrients, and macrophyte abundance in a large floodplain river

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Giblin, Shawn M.; Houser, Jeffrey N.; Sullivan, John F.; Langrehr, H.A.; Rogala, James T.; Campbell, Benjamin D.

    2014-01-01

    Duckweed and other free-floating plants (FFP) can form dense surface mats that affect ecosystem condition and processes, and can impair public use of aquatic resources. FFP obtain their nutrients from the water column, and the formation of dense FFP mats can be a consequence and indicator of river eutrophication. We conducted two complementary surveys of diverse aquatic areas of the Upper Mississippi River as an in situ approach for estimating thresholds in the response of FFP abundance to nutrient concentration and physical conditions in a large, floodplain river. Local regression analysis was used to estimate thresholds in the relations between FFP abundance and phosphorus (P) concentration (0.167 mg l−1L), nitrogen (N) concentration (0.808 mg l−1), water velocity (0.095 m s−1), and aquatic macrophyte abundance (65 % cover). FFP tissue concentrations suggested P limitation was more likely in spring, N limitation was more likely in late summer, and N limitation was most likely in backwaters with minimal hydraulic connection to the channel. The thresholds estimated here, along with observed patterns in nutrient limitation, provide river scientists and managers with criteria to consider when attempting to modify FFP abundance in off-channel areas of large river systems.

  18. Indexing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons in an impoundment of the lower Columbia River from highly skewed trawling data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Counihan, T.D.; Miller, Allen I.; Parsley, M.J.

    1999-01-01

    The development of recruitment monitoring programs for age-0 white sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus is complicated by the statistical properties of catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data. We found that age-0 CPUE distributions from bottom trawl surveys violated assumptions of statistical procedures based on normal probability theory. Further, no single data transformation uniformly satisfied these assumptions because CPUE distribution properties varied with the sample mean (??(CPUE)). Given these analytic problems, we propose that an additional index of age-0 white sturgeon relative abundance, the proportion of positive tows (Ep), be used to estimate sample sizes before conducting age-0 recruitment surveys and to evaluate statistical hypothesis tests comparing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons among years. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that Ep was consistently more precise than ??(CPUE), and because Ep is binomially rather than normally distributed, surveys can be planned and analyzed without violating the assumptions of procedures based on normal probability theory. However, we show that Ep may underestimate changes in relative abundance at high levels and confound our ability to quantify responses to management actions if relative abundance is consistently high. If data suggest that most samples will contain age-0 white sturgeons, estimators of relative abundance other than Ep should be considered. Because Ep may also obscure correlations to climatic and hydrologic variables if high abundance levels are present in time series data, we recommend ??(CPUE) be used to describe relations to environmental variables. The use of both Ep and ??(CPUE) will facilitate the evaluation of hypothesis tests comparing relative abundance levels and correlations to variables affecting age-0 recruitment. Estimated sample sizes for surveys should therefore be based on detecting predetermined differences in Ep, but data necessary to calculate ??(CPUE) should also be

  19. Distribution, abundance and habitat use of deep diving cetaceans in the North-East Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogan, Emer; Cañadas, Ana; Macleod, Kelly; Santos, M. Begoña; Mikkelsen, Bjarni; Uriarte, Ainhize; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Vázquez, José Antonio; Hammond, Philip S.

    2017-07-01

    In spite of their oceanic habitat, deep diving cetacean species have been found to be affected by anthropogenic activities, with potential population impacts of high intensity sounds generated by naval research and oil prospecting receiving the most attention. Improving the knowledge of the distribution and abundance of this poorly known group is an essential prerequisite to inform mitigation strategies seeking to minimize their spatial and temporal overlap with human activities. We provide for the first time abundance estimates for five deep diving cetacean species (sperm whale, long-finned pilot whale, northern bottlenose whale, Cuvier's beaked whale and Sowerby's beaked whale) using data from three dedicated cetacean sighting surveys that covered the oceanic and shelf waters of the North-East Atlantic. Density surface modelling was used to obtain model-based estimates of abundance and to explore the physical and biological characteristics of the habitat used by these species. Distribution of all species was found to be significantly related to depth, distance from the 2000m depth contour, the contour index (a measure of variability in the seabed) and sea surface temperature. Predicted distribution maps also suggest that there is little spatial overlap between these species. Our results represent the best abundance estimates for deep-diving whales in the North-East Atlantic, predict areas of high density during summer and constitute important baseline information to guide future risk assessments of human activities on these species, evaluate potential spatial and temporal trends and inform EU Directives and future conservation efforts.

  20. The abundance of HCN in circumstellar envelopes of AGB stars of different chemical type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöier, F. L.; Ramstedt, S.; Olofsson, H.; Lindqvist, M.; Bieging, J. H.; Marvel, K. B.

    2013-02-01

    Aims: A multi-transition survey of HCN (sub-) millimeter line emission from a large sample of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars of different chemical type is presented. The data are analysed and circumstellar HCN abundances are estimated. The sample stars span a large range of properties such as mass-loss rate and photospheric C/O-ratio. The analysis of the new data allows for more accurate estimates of the circumstellar HCN abundances and puts new constraints on chemical models. Methods: In order to constrain the circumstellar HCN abundance distribution a detailed non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) excitation analysis, based on the Monte Carlo method, is performed. Effects of line overlaps and radiative excitation from dust grains are included. Results: The median values for the derived abundances of HCN (with respect to H2) are 3 × 10-5, 7 × 10-7 and 10-7 for carbon stars (25 stars), S-type AGB stars (19 stars) and M-type AGB stars (25 stars), respectively. The estimated sizes of the HCN envelopes are similar to those obtained in the case of SiO for the same sample of sources and agree well with previous results from interferometric observations, when these are available. Conclusions: We find that there is a clear dependence of the derived circumstellar HCN abundance on the C/O-ratio of the star, in that carbon stars have about two orders of magnitude higher abundances than M-type AGB stars, on average. The derived HCN abundances of the S-type AGB stars have a larger spread and typically fall in between those of the two other types, however, slightly closer to the values for the M-type AGB stars. For the M-type stars, the estimated abundances are much higher than what would be expected if HCN is formed in thermal equilibrium. However, the results are also in contrast to predictions from recent non-LTE chemical models, where very little difference is expected in the HCN abundances between the various types of AGB stars. This publication is based on data

  1. "Capture" Me if You Can: Estimating Abundance of Dolphin Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Jessica; Curran, Mary Carla; Cox, Tara

    2016-01-01

    Animal populations are monitored over time to assess the effects of environmental disaster and disease, as well as the efficacy of laws designed to protect them. Determining the abundance of a species within a defined area is one method of monitoring a population. In "Capture" Me if You Can, middle school students will use data collected…

  2. Distribution and abundance of Millicoma Dace in the Coos River Basin, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scheerer, Paul D.; Peterson, James T.; Clements, Shaun

    2017-01-01

    The Millicoma Dace Rhinichthys cataractae is a form of Longnose Dace endemic to the Coos River drainage in southwestern Oregon. Sparse species records in the Oregon State University Ichthyology Collection and database and infrequent recent encounters prompted surveys to assess the current status and distribution of the species. In 2014, we surveyed locations that had historically supported Millicoma Dace using backpack electrofishing to describe their current distribution and abundance at these locations. In 2015, we extended these surveys further upstream in the South Coos River basin, outside of the documented historical range. We used an N-mixture model to estimate abundance and capture probability for Millicoma Dace at each sampling location. We evaluated the effects of habitat covariates on both capture probability and abundance at each sample site. We found Millicoma Dace were widespread throughout their historical range and in the South Coos River sites outside of their documented historical range. We only found Millicoma Dace associated with native fishes; we did not collect any nonnative fish during our surveys. We collected Millicoma Dace exclusively from swift-water habitats, which were relatively uncommon in the basin, and found them typically associated with cobble or boulder substrates. Millicoma Dace were most abundant in the South Fork Coos and West Fork Millicoma River subbasins. We estimated capture probabilities for Millicoma Dace ranging from 9% when substrate was dominated by bedrock to 28% when substrate was dominated by cobble or gravel. Abundance estimates ranged from 1 to 560 dace per sampling location with a total estimated abundance (sum of site estimates) of over 3200 dace for the sites we sampled.

  3. Optical determination of material abundances by using neural networks for the derivation of spectral filters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krippner, Wolfgang; Wagner, Felix; Bauer, Sebastian; Puente León, Fernando

    2017-06-01

    Using appropriately designed spectral filters allows to optically determine material abundances. While an infinite number of possibilities exist for determining spectral filters, we take advantage of using neural networks to derive spectral filters leading to precise estimations. To overcome some drawbacks that regularly influence the determination of material abundances using hyperspectral data, we incorporate the spectral variability of the raw materials into the training of the considered neural networks. As a main result, we successfully classify quantized material abundances optically. Thus, the main part of the high computational load, which belongs to the use of neural networks, is avoided. In addition, the derived material abundances become invariant against spatially varying illumination intensity as a remarkable benefit in comparison with spectral filters based on the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse, for instance.

  4. Can we use ground-based measurements of HCFCs and HFCs to derive their emissions, lifetimes, and the global OH abundance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Q.; Chipperfield, M.; Daniel, J. S.; Burkholder, J. B.; Rigby, M. L.; Velders, G. J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the major oxidant in the atmosphere. Reaction with OH is the primary removal process for many non-CO2greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their replacements, e.g. hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Traditionally, the global OH abundance is inferred using the observed atmospheric rate of change for methyl chloroform (MCF). Due to the Montreal Protocol regulation, the atmospheric abundance of MCF has been decreasing rapidly to near-zero values. It is becoming critical to find an alternative reference compound to continue to provide quantitative information for the global OH abundance. Our model analysis using the NASA 3-D GEOS-5 Chemistry Climate Model suggests that the inter-hemispheric gradients (IHG) of the HCFCs and HFCs show a strong linear correlation with their global emissions. Therefore it is possible to use (i) the observed IHGs of HCFCs and HFCs to estimate their global emissions, and (ii) use the derived emissions and the observed long-term trend to calculate their lifetimes and to infer the global OH abundance. Preliminary analysis using a simple global two-box model (one box for each hemisphere) and information from the global 3-D model suggests that the quantitative relationship between IHG and global emissions varies slightly among individual compounds depending on their lifetime, their emissions history and emission fractions from the two hemispheres. While each compound shows different sensitivity to the above quantities, the combined suite of the HCFCs and HFCs provides a means to derive global OH abundance and the corresponding atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived gases with respect to OH (tOH). The fact that the OH partial lifetimes of these compounds are highly correlated, with the ratio of tOH equal to the reverse ratio of their OH thermal reaction rates at 272K, provides an additional constraint that can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the OH abundance and t

  5. Whale, Whale, Everywhere: Increasing Abundance of Western South Atlantic Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Their Wintering Grounds.

    PubMed

    Bortolotto, Guilherme A; Danilewicz, Daniel; Andriolo, Artur; Secchi, Eduardo R; Zerbini, Alexandre N

    2016-01-01

    The western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whale population inhabits the coast of Brazil during the breeding and calving season in winter and spring. This population was depleted to near extinction by whaling in the mid-twentieth century. Despite recent signs of recovery, increasing coastal and offshore development pose potential threats to these animals. Therefore, continuous monitoring is needed to assess population status and support conservation strategies. The aim of this work was to present ship-based line-transect estimates of abundance for humpback whales in their WSA breeding ground and to investigate potential changes in population size. Two cruises surveyed the coast of Brazil during August-September in 2008 and 2012. The area surveyed in 2008 corresponded to the currently recognized population breeding area; effort in 2012 was limited due to unfavorable weather conditions. WSA humpback whale population size in 2008 was estimated at 16,410 (CV = 0.228, 95% CI = 10,563-25,495) animals. In order to compare abundance between 2008 and 2012, estimates for the area between Salvador and Cabo Frio, which were consistently covered in the two years, were computed at 15,332 (CV = 0.243, 95% CI = 9,595-24,500) and 19,429 (CV = 0.101, 95% CI = 15,958-23,654) whales, respectively. The difference in the two estimates represents an increase of 26.7% in whale numbers in a 4-year period. The estimated abundance for 2008 is considered the most robust for the WSA humpback whale population because the ship survey conducted in that year minimized bias from various sources. Results presented here indicate that in 2008, the WSA humpback whale population was at least around 60% of its estimated pre-modern whaling abundance and that it may recover to its pre-exploitation size sooner than previously estimated.

  6. Whale, Whale, Everywhere: Increasing Abundance of Western South Atlantic Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Their Wintering Grounds

    PubMed Central

    Danilewicz, Daniel; Andriolo, Artur; Secchi, Eduardo R.; Zerbini, Alexandre N.

    2016-01-01

    The western South Atlantic (WSA) humpback whale population inhabits the coast of Brazil during the breeding and calving season in winter and spring. This population was depleted to near extinction by whaling in the mid-twentieth century. Despite recent signs of recovery, increasing coastal and offshore development pose potential threats to these animals. Therefore, continuous monitoring is needed to assess population status and support conservation strategies. The aim of this work was to present ship-based line-transect estimates of abundance for humpback whales in their WSA breeding ground and to investigate potential changes in population size. Two cruises surveyed the coast of Brazil during August-September in 2008 and 2012. The area surveyed in 2008 corresponded to the currently recognized population breeding area; effort in 2012 was limited due to unfavorable weather conditions. WSA humpback whale population size in 2008 was estimated at 16,410 (CV = 0.228, 95% CI = 10,563–25,495) animals. In order to compare abundance between 2008 and 2012, estimates for the area between Salvador and Cabo Frio, which were consistently covered in the two years, were computed at 15,332 (CV = 0.243, 95% CI = 9,595–24,500) and 19,429 (CV = 0.101, 95% CI = 15,958–23,654) whales, respectively. The difference in the two estimates represents an increase of 26.7% in whale numbers in a 4-year period. The estimated abundance for 2008 is considered the most robust for the WSA humpback whale population because the ship survey conducted in that year minimized bias from various sources. Results presented here indicate that in 2008, the WSA humpback whale population was at least around 60% of its estimated pre-modern whaling abundance and that it may recover to its pre-exploitation size sooner than previously estimated. PMID:27736958

  7. Dynamic relationships between body size, species richness, abundance, and energy use in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community

    PubMed Central

    Labra, Fabio A; Hernández-Miranda, Eduardo; Quiñones, Renato A

    2015-01-01

    We study the temporal variation in the empirical relationships among body size (S), species richness (R), and abundance (A) in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community in Coliumo Bay, Chile. We also extend previous analyses by calculating individual energy use (E) and test whether its bivariate and trivariate relationships with S and R are in agreement with expectations derived from the energetic equivalence rule. Carnivorous and scavenger species representing over 95% of sample abundance and biomass were studied. For each individual, body size (g) was measured and E was estimated following published allometric relationships. Data for each sample were tabulated into exponential body size bins, comparing species-averaged values with individual-based estimates which allow species to potentially occupy multiple size classes. For individual-based data, both the number of individuals and species across body size classes are fit by a Weibull function rather than by a power law scaling. Species richness is also a power law of the number of individuals. Energy use shows a piecewise scaling relationship with body size, with energetic equivalence holding true only for size classes above the modal abundance class. Species-based data showed either weak linear or no significant patterns, likely due to the decrease in the number of data points across body size classes. Hence, for individual-based size spectra, the SRA relationship seems to be general despite seasonal forcing and strong disturbances in Coliumo Bay. The unimodal abundance distribution results in a piecewise energy scaling relationship, with small individuals showing a positive scaling and large individuals showing energetic equivalence. Hence, strict energetic equivalence should not be expected for unimodal abundance distributions. On the other hand, while species-based data do not show unimodal SRA relationships, energy use across body size classes did not show significant trends, supporting energetic

  8. Visualization and dissemination of multidimensional proteomics data comparing protein abundance during Caenorhabditis elegans development.

    PubMed

    Riffle, Michael; Merrihew, Gennifer E; Jaschob, Daniel; Sharma, Vagisha; Davis, Trisha N; Noble, William S; MacCoss, Michael J

    2015-11-01

    Regulation of protein abundance is a critical aspect of cellular function, organism development, and aging. Alternative splicing may give rise to multiple possible proteoforms of gene products where the abundance of each proteoform is independently regulated. Understanding how the abundances of these distinct gene products change is essential to understanding the underlying mechanisms of many biological processes. Bottom-up proteomics mass spectrometry techniques may be used to estimate protein abundance indirectly by sequencing and quantifying peptides that are later mapped to proteins based on sequence. However, quantifying the abundance of distinct gene products is routinely confounded by peptides that map to multiple possible proteoforms. In this work, we describe a technique that may be used to help mitigate the effects of confounding ambiguous peptides and multiple proteoforms when quantifying proteins. We have applied this technique to visualize the distribution of distinct gene products for the whole proteome across 11 developmental stages of the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans. The result is a large multidimensional dataset for which web-based tools were developed for visualizing how translated gene products change during development and identifying possible proteoforms. The underlying instrument raw files and tandem mass spectra may also be downloaded. The data resource is freely available on the web at http://www.yeastrc.org/wormpes/ . Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

  9. Visualization and Dissemination of Multidimensional Proteomics Data Comparing Protein Abundance During Caenorhabditis elegans Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riffle, Michael; Merrihew, Gennifer E.; Jaschob, Daniel; Sharma, Vagisha; Davis, Trisha N.; Noble, William S.; MacCoss, Michael J.

    2015-11-01

    Regulation of protein abundance is a critical aspect of cellular function, organism development, and aging. Alternative splicing may give rise to multiple possible proteoforms of gene products where the abundance of each proteoform is independently regulated. Understanding how the abundances of these distinct gene products change is essential to understanding the underlying mechanisms of many biological processes. Bottom-up proteomics mass spectrometry techniques may be used to estimate protein abundance indirectly by sequencing and quantifying peptides that are later mapped to proteins based on sequence. However, quantifying the abundance of distinct gene products is routinely confounded by peptides that map to multiple possible proteoforms. In this work, we describe a technique that may be used to help mitigate the effects of confounding ambiguous peptides and multiple proteoforms when quantifying proteins. We have applied this technique to visualize the distribution of distinct gene products for the whole proteome across 11 developmental stages of the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans. The result is a large multidimensional dataset for which web-based tools were developed for visualizing how translated gene products change during development and identifying possible proteoforms. The underlying instrument raw files and tandem mass spectra may also be downloaded. The data resource is freely available on the web at http://www.yeastrc.org/wormpes/.

  10. Lakewide estimates of alewife biomass and Chinook salmon abundance and consumption in Lake Ontario, 1989–2005: implications for prey fish sustainability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murry, Brent A.; Connerton, Michael J.; O'Gorman, Robert; Stewart, Donald J.; Ringlerd, Neil H.

    2010-01-01

    Stocking levels of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha for Lake Ontario have been highly controversial since the early 1990s, largely because of uncertainties about lakewide abundance and rates of prey consumption. Previous estimates have focused on years before 1995; since then, however, the Lake Ontario ecosystem has undergone substantial changes, and there is new evidence of extensive natural recruitment. Presented here are new abundance estimates of Chinook salmon and alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario and a reevaluation of the potential risk of alewife population collapse. We found that Lake Ontario has been supporting, on average (1989–2005), 1.83 × 106 (range, 1.08 × 106 to 3.24 × 106) Chinook salmon of ages 1–4, amounting to a mean annual biomass of 11.33 × 103 metric tons (range, 5.83 × 103 to 23.04 × 103 metric tons). During the same period (1989–2005), the lake supported an alewife biomass of 173.66 × 103 metric tons (range, 62.37 × 103 to 345.49 × 103 metric tons); Chinook salmon of ages 1–4 consumed, on average, 22% (range, 11–44%) of the alewife biomass annually. Because our estimates probably underestimate total consumption and because Chinook salmon are only one of several salmonine species that depend on alewives, predation pressure on the Lake Ontario alewife population may be high enough to raise concerns about long-term stability of this predator–prey system.

  11. The relationship between entomological indicators of Aedes aegypti abundance and dengue virus infection

    PubMed Central

    Stoddard, Steven T.; Barker, Christopher M.; Van Rie, Annelies; Messer, William B.; Meshnick, Steven R.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2017-01-01

    Routine entomological monitoring data are used to quantify the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The public health utility of these indicators is based on the assumption that greater mosquito abundance increases the risk of human DENV transmission, and therefore reducing exposure to the vector decreases incidence of infection. Entomological survey data from two longitudinal cohort studies in Iquitos, Peru, linked with 8,153 paired serological samples taken approximately six months apart were analyzed. Indicators of Ae. aegypti density were calculated from cross-sectional and longitudinal entomological data collected over a 12-month period for larval, pupal and adult Ae. aegypti. Log binomial models were used to estimate risk ratios (RR) to measure the association between Ae. aegypti abundance and the six-month risk of DENV seroconversion. RRs estimated using cross-sectional entomological data were compared to RRs estimated using longitudinal data. Higher cross-sectional Ae. aegypti densities were not associated with an increased risk of DENV seroconversion. Use of longitudinal entomological data resulted in RRs ranging from 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.46) for adult stage density estimates and RRs ranging from 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.37) to 1.75 (95% CI: 1.23, 2.5) for categorical immature indices. Ae. aegypti densities calculated from longitudinal entomological data were associated with DENV seroconversion, whereas those measured cross-sectionally were not. Ae. aegypti indicators calculated from cross-sectional surveillance, as is common practice, have limited public health utility in detecting areas or populations at high risk of DENV infection. PMID:28333938

  12. A TiO2 abundance map for the northern maria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, T. V.; Saunders, R. S.; Matson, D. L.; Mosher, J. A.

    1977-01-01

    A map of TiO2 abundance for most of the northern maria is presented. The telescopic data base used is the 0.38/0.56-micron ratio mosaic from Johnson et at. (1977). The titanium content has been estimated using the correlation established by Charette et al. (1974). The combination of observational, processing, and calibration errors indicates that the TiO2 map is accurate to + or - 2% (wt% TiO2) for high TiO2 content (more than 5%) and + or - 1% for low values of TiO2. Analysis of the lunar sample and telescopic data suggests strongly that the spectral parameter mapped is sensitive primarily to TiO2 abundance in the range 3-9% and does not correlate directly with iron content. It is suggested, however, that for the low TiO2 mare regions (less than 2-3% TiO2) there may be a relation between the spectral ratio and iron content and that some of the reddest mare areas in the Imbrium region may have low iron contents as well as low titanium abundances.

  13. RE-EXAMINING HIGH ABUNDANCE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY MASS-METALLICITY OUTLIERS: HIGH N/O, EVOLVED WOLF-RAYET GALAXIES?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Berg, Danielle A.; Skillman, Evan D.; Marble, Andrew R., E-mail: berg@astro.umn.edu, E-mail: skillman@astro.umn.edu, E-mail: amarble@nso.edu

    We present new MMT spectroscopic observations of four dwarf galaxies representative of a larger sample observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and identified by Peeples et al. as low-mass, high oxygen abundance outliers from the mass-metallicity relation. Peeples showed that these four objects (with metallicity estimates of 8.5 {<=} 12 + log(O/H) {<=} 8.8) have oxygen abundance offsets of 0.4-0.6 dex from the M{sub B} luminosity-metallicity relation. Our new observations extend the wavelength coverage to include the [O II] {lambda}{lambda}3726, 3729 doublet, which adds leverage in oxygen abundance estimates and allows measurements of N/O ratios. All four spectra aremore » low excitation, with relatively high N/O ratios (N/O {approx}> 0.10), each of which tend to bias estimates based on strong emission lines toward high oxygen abundances. These spectra all fall in a regime where the 'standard' strong-line methods for metallicity determinations are not well calibrated either empirically or by photoionization modeling. By comparing our spectra directly to photoionization models, we estimate oxygen abundances in the range of 7.9 {<=} 12 + log (O/H) {<=} 8.4, consistent with the scatter of the mass-metallicity relation. We discuss the physical nature of these galaxies that leads to their unusual spectra (and previous classification as outliers), finding their low excitation, elevated N/O, and strong Balmer absorption are consistent with the properties expected from galaxies evolving past the 'Wolf-Rayet galaxy' phase. We compare our results to the 'main' sample of Peeples and conclude that they are outliers primarily due to enrichment of nitrogen relative to oxygen and not due to unusually high oxygen abundances for their masses or luminosities.« less

  14. Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.

    PubMed

    Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille; Nemésio, André; Loyola, Rafael

    2018-06-01

    Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance

  15. Oceanic heterotrophic dinoflagellates: distribution, abundance, and role as microzooplankton

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lessard, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    The primary objectives of this thesis were to determine the distribution and abundance of heterotrophic dinoflagellates across the Gulf Stream system off Cape Hatteras and to assess the potential grazing impact of these microheterotrophs in plankton communities. A list of species encountered in this study and their trophic status based on epifluorescence is presented, as well as observations on the presence of external or internal symbionts. The abundance of heterotrophic dinoflagellates across the Gulf Stream region off Cape Hatteras was determined from bimonthly net tow samples over a year and from whole water samples in March. Their average abundance wasmore » twice that of net ciliates in the net plankton and ten times that of ciliates in the nanoplankton. An isotope technique was developed to measure grazing rates of individual dinoflaggellates and other microzooplankton which cannot be separated in natural populations on the basis of size. /sup 3/H-thymidine and /sup 14/C-bicarbonate were used to label natural heterotrophic (bacteria and bacterivores) and autotrophic (phytoplankton and herbivores) food, respectively. Estimates of the grazing impact of heterotrophic kinoflagellates relative to other groups of heterotrophs on phytoplankton and bacteria were made by combining abundance data and clearance rates. Such calculations suggested that heterotrophic dinoflagellates may be an important group of grazers in oceanic waters.« less

  16. A reference estimator based on composite sensor pattern noise for source device identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ruizhe; Li, Chang-Tsun; Guan, Yu

    2014-02-01

    It has been proved that Sensor Pattern Noise (SPN) can serve as an imaging device fingerprint for source camera identification. Reference SPN estimation is a very important procedure within the framework of this application. Most previous works built reference SPN by averaging the SPNs extracted from 50 images of blue sky. However, this method can be problematic. Firstly, in practice we may face the problem of source camera identification in the absence of the imaging cameras and reference SPNs, which means only natural images with scene details are available for reference SPN estimation rather than blue sky images. It is challenging because the reference SPN can be severely contaminated by image content. Secondly, the number of available reference images sometimes is too few for existing methods to estimate a reliable reference SPN. In fact, existing methods lack consideration of the number of available reference images as they were designed for the datasets with abundant images to estimate the reference SPN. In order to deal with the aforementioned problem, in this work, a novel reference estimator is proposed. Experimental results show that our proposed method achieves better performance than the methods based on the averaged reference SPN, especially when few reference images used.

  17. A guide to the use of distance sampling to estimate abundance of Karner blue butterflies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grundel, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    This guide is intended to describe the use of distance sampling as a method for evaluating the abundance of Karner blue butterflies at a location. Other methods for evaluating abundance exist, including mark-release-recapture and index counts derived from Pollard-Yates surveys, for example. Although this guide is not intended to be a detailed comparison of the pros and cons of each type of method, there are important preliminary considerations to think about before selecting any method for evaluating the abundance of Karner blue butterflies.

  18. An evaluation of the efficiency of minnow traps for estimating the abundance of minnows in desert spring systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, James T.; Scheerer, Paul D.; Clements, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Desert springs are sensitive aquatic ecosystems that pose unique challenges to natural resource managers and researchers. Among the most important of these is the need to accurately quantify population parameters for resident fish, particularly when the species are of special conservation concern. We evaluated the efficiency of baited minnow traps for estimating the abundance of two at-risk species, Foskett Speckled Dace Rhinichthys osculus ssp. and Borax Lake Chub Gila boraxobius, in desert spring systems in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated alternative sample designs using simulation and found that capture–recapture designs with four capture occasions would maximize the accuracy of estimates and minimize fish handling. We implemented the design and estimated capture and recapture probabilities using the Huggins closed-capture estimator. Trap capture probabilities averaged 23% and 26% for Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub, respectively, but differed substantially among sample locations, through time, and nonlinearly with fish body size. Recapture probabilities for Foskett Speckled Dace were, on average, 1.6 times greater than (first) capture probabilities, suggesting “trap-happy” behavior. Comparison of population estimates from the Huggins model with the commonly used Lincoln–Petersen estimator indicated that the latter underestimated Foskett Speckled Dace and Borax Lake Chub population size by 48% and by 20%, respectively. These biases were due to variability in capture and recapture probabilities. Simulation of fish monitoring that included the range of capture and recapture probabilities observed indicated that variability in capture and recapture probabilities in time negatively affected the ability to detect annual decreases by up to 20% in fish population size. Failure to account for variability in capture and recapture probabilities can lead to poor quality data and study inferences. Therefore, we recommend that fishery researchers and

  19. Estimating White-tailed Deer abundance at Gettysburg National Military Park and Eisenhower National Historic Site

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stainbrook, David P.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2012-01-01

    The mission at Gettysburg National Military Park and Eisenhower National Historic Site (GNMP-ENHS) is to preserve the historic character of the parks to enable current and future generations to understand and interpret the events that took place at each park. Management objectives include maintaining the landscape as it existed during the historic 1863 Civil War battle (e.g., dense understory in woodlots) in GNMP and as it existed during Eisenhower’s occupancy (e.g., patchwork of cropfields) in ENHS. Browsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) diminished regeneration of native trees in woodlots and prevented crops from reaching maturity. Thus, to increase regeneration in woodlots and reduce crop damage, the National Park Service (NPS) began culling deer in 1995 to reach a density goal of 10 deer/km2 of forest. However, park managers were interested in an accurate population estimate to determine if their management goal has been met and possible methods to monitor future abundance.

  20. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  1. Reexamining Sample Size Requirements for Multivariate, Abundance-Based Community Research: When Resources are Limited, the Research Does Not Have to Be.

    PubMed

    Forcino, Frank L; Leighton, Lindsey R; Twerdy, Pamela; Cahill, James F

    2015-01-01

    Community ecologists commonly perform multivariate techniques (e.g., ordination, cluster analysis) to assess patterns and gradients of taxonomic variation. A critical requirement for a meaningful statistical analysis is accurate information on the taxa found within an ecological sample. However, oversampling (too many individuals counted per sample) also comes at a cost, particularly for ecological systems in which identification and quantification is substantially more resource consuming than the field expedition itself. In such systems, an increasingly larger sample size will eventually result in diminishing returns in improving any pattern or gradient revealed by the data, but will also lead to continually increasing costs. Here, we examine 396 datasets: 44 previously published and 352 created datasets. Using meta-analytic and simulation-based approaches, the research within the present paper seeks (1) to determine minimal sample sizes required to produce robust multivariate statistical results when conducting abundance-based, community ecology research. Furthermore, we seek (2) to determine the dataset parameters (i.e., evenness, number of taxa, number of samples) that require larger sample sizes, regardless of resource availability. We found that in the 44 previously published and the 220 created datasets with randomly chosen abundances, a conservative estimate of a sample size of 58 produced the same multivariate results as all larger sample sizes. However, this minimal number varies as a function of evenness, where increased evenness resulted in increased minimal sample sizes. Sample sizes as small as 58 individuals are sufficient for a broad range of multivariate abundance-based research. In cases when resource availability is the limiting factor for conducting a project (e.g., small university, time to conduct the research project), statistically viable results can still be obtained with less of an investment.

  2. A search for stars of very low metal abundance. VI. Detailed abundances of 313 metal-poor stars

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Roederer, Ian U.; Preston, George W.; Thompson, Ian B.

    2014-06-01

    We present radial velocities, equivalent widths, model atmosphere parameters, and abundances or upper limits for 53 species of 48 elements derived from high resolution optical spectroscopy of 313 metal-poor stars. A majority of these stars were selected from the metal-poor candidates of the HK Survey of Beers, Preston, and Shectman. We derive detailed abundances for 61% of these stars for the first time. Spectra were obtained during a 10 yr observing campaign using the Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle spectrograph on the Magellan Telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory, the Robert G. Tull Coudé Spectrograph on the Harlan J. Smith Telescope atmore » McDonald Observatory, and the High Resolution Spectrograph on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope at McDonald Observatory. We perform a standard LTE abundance analysis using MARCS model atmospheres, and we apply line-by-line statistical corrections to minimize systematic abundance differences arising when different sets of lines are available for analysis. We identify several abundance correlations with effective temperature. A comparison with previous abundance analyses reveals significant differences in stellar parameters, which we investigate in detail. Our metallicities are, on average, lower by ≈0.25 dex for red giants and ≈0.04 dex for subgiants. Our sample contains 19 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–3.5, 84 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–3.0, and 210 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–2.5. Detailed abundances are presented here or elsewhere for 91% of the 209 stars with [Fe/H] ≤–2.5 as estimated from medium resolution spectroscopy by Beers, Preston, and Shectman. We will discuss the interpretation of these abundances in subsequent papers.« less

  3. Estimating number and size of forest patches from FIA plot data

    Treesearch

    Mark D. Nelson; Andrew J. Lister; Mark H. Hansen

    2009-01-01

    Forest inventory and analysis (FIA) annual plot data provide for estimates of forest area, type, volume, growth, and other attributes. Estimates of forest landscape metrics, such as those describing abundance, size, and shape of forest patches, however, typically are not derived from FIA plot data but from satellite image-based land cover maps. Associating image-based...

  4. Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in arctic Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hogrefe, Kyle R.; Patil, Vijay; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Meixell, Brandt W.; Budde, Michael E.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Ward, David H.

    2017-01-01

    Tools that can monitor biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants are needed to understand how arctic herbivores may respond to the rapidly changing environment at high latitudes. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to assess changes in abundance and distribution of terrestrial vegetative communities. However, the efficacy of NDVI to measure seasonal changes in biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants in the Arctic remains largely un-evaluated at landscape and fine-scale levels. We modeled the relationships between NDVI and seasonal changes in aboveground biomass and nitrogen concentration in halophytic graminoids, a key food source for arctic-nesting geese. The model was calibrated based on data collected at one site and validated using data from another site. Effects of spatial scale on model accuracy were determined by comparing model predictions between NDVI derived from moderate resolution (250 × 250 m pixels) satellite data and high resolution (20 cm diameter area) handheld spectrometer data. NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer was a superior estimator (R2 ≥ 0.67) of seasonal changes in aboveground biomass compared to satellite-derived NDVI (R2 ≤ 0.40). The addition of temperature and precipitation variables to the model for biomass improved fit, but provided minor gains in predictive power beyond that of the NDVI-only model. This model, however, was only a moderately accurate estimator of biomass in an ecologically-similar halophytic graminoid wetland located 100 km away, indicating the necessity for site-specific validation. In contrast to assessments of biomass, satellite-derived NDVI was a better estimator for the timing of peak percent of nitrogen than NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer. We confirmed that the date when NDVI reached 50% of its seasonal maximum was a reasonable approximation of the period of peak spring vegetative green-up and peak percent nitrogen. This study

  5. Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Blancher, P.; Niven, D.; Droege, S.

    2008-01-01

    The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

  6. Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, northwestern Washington, 2016

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Baccus, William T.

    2016-11-30

    Executive SummaryWe estimated abundance and trends of non-native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains of northwestern Washington, based on aerial surveys conducted during July 13–24, 2016. The surveys produced the seventh population estimate since the first formal aerial surveys were conducted in 1983. This was the second population estimate since we adjusted survey area boundaries and adopted new estimation procedures in 2011. Before 2011, surveys encompassed all areas free of glacial ice at elevations above 1,520 meters (m), but in 2011 we expanded survey unit boundaries to include suitable mountain goat habitats at elevations between 1,425 and 1,520 m. In 2011, we also began applying a sightability correction model allowing us to estimate undercounting bias associated with aerial surveys and to adjust survey results accordingly. The 2016 surveys were carried out by National Park Service (NPS) personnel in Olympic National Park and by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) biologists in Olympic National Forest and in the southeastern part of Olympic National Park. We surveyed a total of 59 survey units, comprising 55 percent of the 60,218-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 623 ±43 (standard error, SE). Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 561 to 741 mountain goats at the time of the survey.We examined the rate of increase of the mountain goat population by comparing the current population estimate to previous estimates from 2004 and 2011. Because aerial survey boundaries changed between 2004 and 2016, we recomputed population estimates for 2011 and 2016 surveys based on the revised survey boundaries as well as the previously defined boundaries so that estimates were directly comparable across years. Additionally, because the Mount Washington survey unit was not surveyed in 2011, we used results from an independent survey of the Mount

  7. Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Humm, J.; McCown, J. Walter; Scheick, B.K.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2017-01-01

    We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear (Ursus americanus) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

  8. Understanding Aggregation and Estimating Seasonal Abundance of Chrysaora quinquecirrha Medusae from a Fixed-station Time Series in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tay, J.; Hood, R. R.

    2016-02-01

    Although jellyfish exert strong control over marine plankton dynamics (Richardson et al. 2009, Robison et al. 2014) and negatively impact human commercial and recreational activities (Purcell et al. 2007, Purcell 2012), jellyfish biomass is not well quantified due primarily to sampling difficulties with plankton nets or fisheries trawls (Haddock 2004). As a result, some of the longest records of jellyfish are visual shore-based surveys, such as the fixed-station time series of Chrysaora quinquecirrha that began in 1960 in the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay, USA (Cargo and King 1990). Time series counts from fixed-station surveys capture two signals: 1) demographic change at timescales on the order of reproductive processes and 2) spatial patchiness at shorter timescales as different parcels of water move in and out of the survey area by tidal and estuarine advection and turbulent mixing (Lee and McAlice 1979). In this study, our goal was to separate these two signals using a 4-year time series of C. quinquecirrha medusa counts from a fixed-station in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay. Idealized modeling of tidal and estuarine advection was used to conceptualize the sampling scheme. Change point and time series analysis was used to detect demographic changes. Indices of aggregation (Negative Binomial coefficient, Taylor's Power Law coefficient, and Morisita's Index) were calculated to describe the spatial patchiness of the medusae. Abundance estimates revealed a bloom cycle that differed in duration and magnitude for each of the study years. Indices of aggregation indicated that medusae were aggregated and that patches grew in the number of individuals, and likely in size, as abundance increased. Further inference from the conceptual modeling suggested that medusae patch structure was generally homogenous over the tidal extent. This study highlights the benefits of using fixed-station shore-based surveys for understanding the biology and ecology of jellyfish.

  9. Reward abundance interferes with error-based learning in a visuomotor adaptation task

    PubMed Central

    Oostwoud Wijdenes, Leonie; Rigterink, Tessa; Overvliet, Krista E.; Smeets, Joeren B. J.

    2018-01-01

    The brain rapidly adapts reaching movements to changing circumstances by using visual feedback about errors. Providing reward in addition to error feedback facilitates the adaptation but the underlying mechanism is unknown. Here, we investigate whether the proportion of trials rewarded (the ‘reward abundance’) influences how much participants adapt to their errors. We used a 3D multi-target pointing task in which reward alone is insufficient for motor adaptation. Participants (N = 423) performed the pointing task with feedback based on a shifted hand-position. On a proportion of trials we gave them rewarding feedback that their hand hit the target. Half of the participants only received this reward feedback. The other half also received feedback about endpoint errors. In different groups, we varied the proportion of trials that was rewarded. As expected, participants who received feedback about their errors did adapt, but participants who only received reward-feedback did not. Critically, participants who received abundant rewards adapted less to their errors than participants who received less reward. Thus, reward abundance negatively influences how much participants learn from their errors. Probably participants used a mechanism that relied more on the reward feedback when the reward was abundant. Because participants could not adapt to the reward, this interfered with adaptation to errors. PMID:29513681

  10. Sampling scales define occupancy and underlying occupancy-abundance relationships in animals.

    PubMed

    Steenweg, Robin; Hebblewhite, Mark; Whittington, Jesse; Lukacs, Paul; McKelvey, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Occupancy-abundance (OA) relationships are a foundational ecological phenomenon and field of study, and occupancy models are increasingly used to track population trends and understand ecological interactions. However, these two fields of ecological inquiry remain largely isolated, despite growing appreciation of the importance of integration. For example, using occupancy models to infer trends in abundance is predicated on positive OA relationships. Many occupancy studies collect data that violate geographical closure assumptions due to the choice of sampling scales and application to mobile organisms, which may change how occupancy and abundance are related. Little research, however, has explored how different occupancy sampling designs affect OA relationships. We develop a conceptual framework for understanding how sampling scales affect the definition of occupancy for mobile organisms, which drives OA relationships. We explore how spatial and temporal sampling scales, and the choice of sampling unit (areal vs. point sampling), affect OA relationships. We develop predictions using simulations, and test them using empirical occupancy data from remote cameras on 11 medium-large mammals. Surprisingly, our simulations demonstrate that when using point sampling, OA relationships are unaffected by spatial sampling grain (i.e., cell size). In contrast, when using areal sampling (e.g., species atlas data), OA relationships are affected by spatial grain. Furthermore, OA relationships are also affected by temporal sampling scales, where the curvature of the OA relationship increases with temporal sampling duration. Our empirical results support these predictions, showing that at any given abundance, the spatial grain of point sampling does not affect occupancy estimates, but longer surveys do increase occupancy estimates. For rare species (low occupancy), estimates of occupancy will quickly increase with longer surveys, even while abundance remains constant. Our results

  11. A New Method for Estimating Bacterial Abundances in Natural Samples using Sublimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glavin, Daniel P.; Cleaves, H. James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert were heated to a temperature of 500 C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger and the amount of adenine released from the samples then determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approx. l0(exp 5) to l0(exp 9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI staining. The simplicity and robustness of the sublimation technique compared to the DAPI staining method makes this approach particularly attractive for use by spacecraft instrumentation. NASA is currently planning to send a lander to Mars in 2009 in order to assess whether or not organic compounds, especially those that might be associated with life, are present in Martian surface samples. Based on our analyses of the Atacama Desert soil samples, several million bacterial cells per gam of Martian soil should be detectable using this sublimation technique.

  12. Estimating Primary Production of Picophytoplankton Using the Carbon-Based Ocean Productivity Model: A Preliminary Study

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Yantao; Zhang, Yongyu; Wang, Nannan; Luo, Tingwei; Zhang, Yao; Rivkin, Richard B.

    2017-01-01

    Picophytoplankton are acknowledged to contribute significantly to primary production (PP) in the ocean while now the method to measure PP of picophytoplankton (PPPico) at large scales is not yet well established. Although the traditional 14C method and new technologies based on the use of stable isotopes (e.g., 13C) can be employed to accurately measure in situ PPPico, the time-consuming and labor-intensive shortage of these methods constrain their application in a survey on large spatiotemporal scales. To overcome this shortage, a modified carbon-based ocean productivity model (CbPM) is proposed for estimating the PPPico whose principle is based on the group-specific abundance, cellular carbon conversion factor (CCF), and temperature-derived growth rate of picophytoplankton. Comparative analysis showed that the estimated PPPico using CbPM method is significantly and positively related (r2 = 0.53, P < 0.001, n = 171) to the measured 14C uptake. This significant relationship suggests that CbPM has the potential to estimate the PPPico over large spatial and temporal scales. Currently this model application may be limited by the use of invariant cellular CCF and the relatively small data sets to validate the model which may introduce some uncertainties and biases. Model performance will be improved by the use of variable conversion factors and the larger data sets representing diverse growth conditions. Finally, we apply the CbPM-based model on the collected data during four cruises in the Bohai Sea in 2005. Model-estimated PPPico ranged from 0.1 to 11.9, 29.9 to 432.8, 5.5 to 214.9, and 2.4 to 65.8 mg C m-2 d-1 during March, June, September, and December, respectively. This study shed light on the estimation of global PPPico using carbon-based production model. PMID:29051755

  13. Using GIS mapping of the extent of nearshore rocky reefs to estimate the abundance and reproductive output of important fishery species.

    PubMed

    Claisse, Jeremy T; Pondella, Daniel J; Williams, Jonathan P; Sadd, James

    2012-01-01

    Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941 thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized.

  14. Using GIS Mapping of the Extent of Nearshore Rocky Reefs to Estimate the Abundance and Reproductive Output of Important Fishery Species

    PubMed Central

    Claisse, Jeremy T.; Pondella, Daniel J.; Williams, Jonathan P.; Sadd, James

    2012-01-01

    Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized. PMID:22272326

  15. Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a National Park Wilderness Area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Watry, Mary Kay; Ellison, Laura E.; Schwarz, Michael A.; Luikart, Gordon

    2015-01-01

    Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population's range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test whether we could accurately estimate population size by sampling from an area where animals concentrate. We used mark-recapture analysis to derive population estimates, and compared estimates from this smaller spatial sampling to estimates from sampling of the entire bighorn sheep range. We found that estimates were somewhat comparable; in 2009, the mineral lick sample and entire range sample differed by 20 individuals, and in 2010 they differed by only one individual. However, we captured 13 individuals in the entire range sample that were not captured at the mineral lick, and thus violated a model assumption that all individuals had an equal opportunity of being captured. This eliminated the possibility of inferring a total population estimate from just animals visiting the mineral lick, but because estimates were relatively similar, monitoring at the mineral lick can provide a useful index for management and conservation. We compared our results to a radio-collar study conducted in 2003–2004 and confirmed that the population remained stable since 2004. Our population estimates were 78 (CI 62–114) in 2009 and 95 (CI 77–131) in 2010. Between 7 and 11 sampling dates were needed to achieve a CV of 20% for population estimates, assuming a capture probability between 0.09 and 0.13. We relied on citizen science volunteers to maximize data collection and reduce costs; 71% of all fecal samples were collected by volunteers, compared to 29% collected by paid staff. We conclude that our technique provides a useful monitoring tool for managers. The technique could be tested and applied in similar

  16. New insights into ocean sunfish (Mola mola) abundance and seasonal distribution in the northeast Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Breen, Patricia; Cañadas, Ana; Cadhla, Oliver Ó; Mackey, Mick; Scheidat, Meike; Geelhoed, Steve C V; Rogan, Emer; Jessopp, Mark

    2017-05-17

    The ocean sunfish, Mola mola, is the largest teleost fish in the world. Despite being found in all oceans of the world, little is known about its abundance and factors driving its distribution. In this study we provide the first abundance estimates for sunfish in offshore waters in the northeast Atlantic and the first record of extensive sunfish presence in these waters year-round. Abundance estimates and predictive distributions for sunfish in approximately 300,000 km² of the northeast Atlantic were derived from large scale offshore aerial surveys in 2015-2016 using distance sampling techniques. Generalized additive models of sunfish density were fitted to survey data from 17,360 km of line transect effort resulting in minimum abundance estimates of 12,702 (CI: 9,864-16,357) in the summer (Density = 0.043 ind/km²) and 8,223 individuals (CI: 6,178-10,946) (Density = 0.028 ind/km²) in the winter. Density surface models predicted seasonal shifts in distribution and highlighted the importance of the mixed layer depth, possibly related to thermoregulation following deep foraging dives. The abundance estimate and estimated daily consumption of 2,600 tonnes of jellyfish in the northeast Atlantic highlights the need to re-assess the importance of this species in the pelagic ecosystem, and its role in top-down control of jellyfish blooms.

  17. NEUTRON-CAPTURE ELEMENT ABUNDANCES IN MAGELLANIC CLOUD PLANETARY NEBULAE

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mashburn, A. L.; Sterling, N. C.; Madonna, S.

    We present near-infrared spectra of 10 planetary nebulae (PNe) in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC), acquired with the FIRE and GNIRS spectrometers on the 6.5 m Baade and 8.1 m Gemini South Telescopes, respectively. We detect Se and/or Kr emission lines in eight of these objects, the first detections of n -capture elements in Magellanic Cloud PNe. Our abundance analysis shows large s -process enrichments of Kr (0.6–1.3 dex) in the six PNe in which it was detected, and Se is enriched by 0.5–0.9 dex in five objects. We also estimate upper limits to Rb andmore » Cd abundances in these objects. Our abundance results for the LMC are consistent with the hypothesis that PNe with 2–3 M {sub ⊙} progenitors dominate the bright end of the PN luminosity function in young gas-rich galaxies. We find no significant correlations between s -process enrichments and other elemental abundances, central star temperature, or progenitor mass, though this is likely due to our small sample size. We determine S abundances from our spectra and find that [S/H] agrees with [Ar/H] to within 0.2 dex for most objects, but is lower than [O/H] by 0.2–0.4 dex in some PNe, possibly due to O enrichment via third dredge-up. Our results demonstrate that n -capture elements can be detected in PNe belonging to nearby galaxies with ground-based telescopes, allowing s -process enrichments to be studied in PN populations with well-determined distances.« less

  18. Mineral Abundance Estimates and Distribution Derived from Mars Dune Field #2938-497

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charles, H. R.; Titus, T. N.

    2015-05-01

    The goal of this analysis was to determine the presence or absence of feldspar and examine its distribution if present in dune field #2938-497. We deconvolved thermal emissivity data from TES to identify mineral abundances in the dune field.

  19. Validity of abundances derived from spaxel spectra of the MaNGA survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilyugin, L. S.; Grebel, E. K.; Zinchenko, I. A.; Nefedyev, Y. A.; Shulga, V. M.; Wei, H.; Berczik, P. P.

    2018-05-01

    We measured the emission lines in the spaxel spectra of Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) galaxies in order to determine the abundance distributions therein. It has been suggested that the strength of the low-ionization lines, R2, N2, and S2, may be increased (relative to Balmer lines) in (some) spaxel spectra of the MaNGA survey due to a contribution of the radiation of the diffuse ionized gas. Consequently, the abundances derived from the spaxel spectra through strong-line methods may suffer from large errors. We examined this expectation by comparing the behaviour of the line intensities and the abundances estimated through different calibrations for slit spectra of H II regions in nearby galaxies, for fibre spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and for spaxel spectra of the MaNGA survey. We found that the S2 strength is increased significantly in the fibre and spaxel spectra. The mean enhancement changes with metallicity and can be as large as a factor of 2. The mean distortion of R2 and N2 is less than a factor of 1.3. This suggests that Kaufmann et al.'s (2003, MNRAS, 346, 1055) demarcation line between active galactic nuclei and H II regions in the Baldwin, Phillips, & Terlevich (BPT, 1981, PASP, 93, 5) diagram is a useful criterion to reject spectra with significantly distorted strengths of the N2 and R2 lines. We find that the three-dimensional R calibration, which uses the N2 and R2 lines, produces reliable abundances in the MaNGA galaxies. The one-dimensional N2 calibration produces either reliable or wrong abundances depending on whether excitation and N/O abundance ratio in the target region (spaxel) are close to or differ from those parameters in the calibrating points located close to the calibration relation. We then determined abundance distributions within the optical radii in the discs of 47 MaNGA galaxies. The optical radii of the galaxies were estimated from the surface brightness profiles constructed based on the

  20. Observations-based GPP estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joiner, J.; Yoshida, Y.; Jung, M.; Tucker, C. J.; Pinzon, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    We have developed global estimates of gross primary production based on a relatively simple satellite observations-based approach using reflectance data from the MODIS instruments in the form of vegetation indices that provide information about photosynthetic capacity at both high temporal and spatial resolution and combined with information from chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 instrument that is noisier and available only at lower temporal and spatial scales. We compare our gross primary production estimates with those from eddy covariance flux towers and show that they are competitive with more complicated extrapolated machine learning gross primary production products. Our results provide insight into the amount of variance in gross primary production that can be explained with satellite observations data and also show how processing of the satellite reflectance data is key to using it for accurate GPP estimates.

  1. Abundances of carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars as constraints on their formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, C. J.; Nordström, B.; Hansen, T. T.; Kennedy, C. R.; Placco, V. M.; Beers, T. C.; Andersen, J.; Cescutti, G.; Chiappini, C.

    2016-04-01

    Context. An increasing fraction of carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars is found as their iron abundance, [Fe/H], decreases below [Fe/H] =-2.0. The CEMP-s stars have the highest absolute carbon abundances, [C/H], and are thought to owe their enrichment in carbon and the slow neutron-capture (s-process) elements to mass transfer from a former asymptotic giant branch (AGB) binary companion. The most Fe-poor CEMP stars are normally single, exhibit somewhat lower [C/H] than CEMP-s stars, but show no s-process element enhancement (CEMP-no stars). Abundance determinations of CNO offer clues to their formation sites. Aims: Our aim is to use the medium-resolution spectrograph X-Shooter/VLT to determine stellar parameters and abundances for C, N, Sr, and Ba in several classes of CEMP stars in order to further classify and constrain the astrophysical formation sites of these stars. Methods: Atmospheric parameters for our programme stars were estimated from a combination of V-K photometry, model isochrone fits, and estimates from a modified version of the SDSS/SEGUE spectroscopic pipeline. We then used X-Shooter spectra in conjunction with the 1D local thermodynamic equilibrium spectrum synthesis code MOOG, 1D ATLAS9 atmosphere models to derive stellar abundances, and, where possible, isotopic 12C/13C ratios. Results: Abundances (or limits) of C, N, Sr, and Ba are derived for a sample of 27 faint metal-poor stars for which the X-Shooter spectra have sufficient signal-to-noise ratios (S/N). These moderate resolution, low S/N (~10-40) spectra prove sufficient to perform limited chemical tagging and enable assignment of these stars into the CEMP subclasses (CEMP-s and CEMP-no). According to the derived abundances, 17 of our sample stars are CEMP-s and 3 are CEMP-no, while the remaining 7 are carbon-normal. For four CEMP stars, the subclassification remains uncertain, and two of them may be pulsating AGB stars. Conclusions: The derived stellar abundances trace the formation

  2. Observations on abundance of bluntnose sixgill sharks, Hexanchus griseus, in an urban waterway in Puget Sound, 2003-2005.

    PubMed

    Griffing, Denise; Larson, Shawn; Hollander, Joel; Carpenter, Tim; Christiansen, Jeff; Doss, Charles

    2014-01-01

    The bluntnose sixgill shark, Hexanchus griseus, is a widely distributed but poorly understood large, apex predator. Anecdotal reports of diver-shark encounters in the late 1990's and early 2000's in the Pacific Northwest stimulated interest in the normally deep-dwelling shark and its presence in the shallow waters of Puget Sound. Analysis of underwater video documenting sharks at the Seattle Aquarium's sixgill research site in Elliott Bay and mark-resight techniques were used to answer research questions about abundance and seasonality. Seasonal changes in relative abundance in Puget Sound from 2003-2005 are reported here. At the Seattle Aquarium study site, 45 sixgills were tagged with modified Floy visual marker tags, along with an estimated 197 observations of untagged sharks plus 31 returning tagged sharks, for a total of 273 sixgill observations recorded. A mark-resight statistical model based on analysis of underwater video estimated a range of abundance from a high of 98 sharks seen in July of 2004 to a low of 32 sharks seen in March of 2004. Both analyses found sixgills significantly more abundant in the summer months at the Seattle Aquarium's research station.

  3. Observations on Abundance of Bluntnose Sixgill Sharks, Hexanchus griseus, in an Urban Waterway in Puget Sound, 2003-2005

    PubMed Central

    Griffing, Denise; Larson, Shawn; Hollander, Joel; Carpenter, Tim; Christiansen, Jeff; Doss, Charles

    2014-01-01

    The bluntnose sixgill shark, Hexanchus griseus, is a widely distributed but poorly understood large, apex predator. Anecdotal reports of diver-shark encounters in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s in the Pacific Northwest stimulated interest in the normally deep-dwelling shark and its presence in the shallow waters of Puget Sound. Analysis of underwater video documenting sharks at the Seattle Aquarium’s sixgill research site in Elliott Bay and mark-resight techniques were used to answer research questions about abundance and seasonality. Seasonal changes in relative abundance in Puget Sound from 2003–2005 are reported here. At the Seattle Aquarium study site, 45 sixgills were tagged with modified Floy visual marker tags, along with an estimated 197 observations of untagged sharks plus 31 returning tagged sharks, for a total of 273 sixgill observations recorded. A mark-resight statistical model based on analysis of underwater video estimated a range of abundance from a high of 98 sharks seen in July of 2004 to a low of 32 sharks seen in March of 2004. Both analyses found sixgills significantly more abundant in the summer months at the Seattle Aquarium’s research station. PMID:24475229

  4. Acoustic estimates of abundance and distribution of spawning lake trout on Sheboygan Reef in Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warner, D.M.; Claramunt, R.M.; Janssen, J.; Jude, D.J.; Wattrus, N.

    2009-01-01

    Efforts to restore self-sustaining lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes have had widespread success in Lake Superior; but in other Great Lakes, populations of lake trout are maintained by stocking. Recruitment bottlenecks may be present at a number of stages of the reproduction process. To study eggs and fry, it is necessary to identify spawning locations, which is difficult in deep water. Acoustic sampling can be used to rapidly locate aggregations of fish (like spawning lake trout), describe their distribution, and estimate their abundance. To assess these capabilities for application to lake trout, we conducted an acoustic survey covering 22 km2 at Sheboygan Reef, a deep reef (<40 m summit) in southern Lake Michigan during fall 2005. Data collected with remotely operated vehicles (ROV) confirmed that fish were large lake trout, that lake trout were 1–2 m above bottom, and that spawning took place over specific habitat. Lake trout density exhibited a high degree of spatial structure (autocorrelation) up to a range of ~190 m, and highest lake trout and egg densities occurred over rough substrates (rubble and cobble) at the shallowest depths sampled (36–42 m). Mean lake trout density in the area surveyed (~2190 ha) was 5.8 fish/ha and the area surveyed contained an estimated 9500–16,000 large lake trout. Spatial aggregation in lake trout densities, similarity of depths and substrates at which high lake trout and egg densities occurred, and relatively low uncertainty in the lake trout density estimate indicate that acoustic sampling can be a useful complement to other sampling tools used in lake trout restoration research.

  5. Lunar Silicon Abundance determined by Kaguya Gamma-ray Spectrometer and Chandrayaan-1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kyeong; Berezhnoy, Alexey; Wöhler, Christian; Grumpe, Arne; Rodriguez, Alexis; Hasebe, Nobuyuki; Van Gasselt, Stephan

    2016-07-01

    Using Kaguya GRS data, we investigated Si distribution on the Moon, based on study of the 4934 keV Si gamma ray peak caused by interaction between thermal neutrons and lunar Si-28 atoms. A Si peak analysis for a grid of 10 degrees in longitude and latitude was accomplished by the IRAP Aquarius program followed by a correction for altitude and thermal neutron density. A spectral parameter based regression model of the Si distribution was built for latitudes between 60°S and 60°N based on the continuum slopes, band depths, widths and minimum wavelengths of the absorption bands near 1 μμm and 2 μμm. Based on these regression models a nearly global cpm (counts per minute) map of Si with a resolution of 20 pixels per degree was constructed. The construction of a nearly global map of lunar Si abundances has been achieved by a combination of regression-based analysis of KGRS cpm data and M ^{3} spectral reflectance data, it has been calibrated with respect to returned sample-based wt% values. The Si abundances estimated with our method systematically exceed those of the LP GRS Si data set but are consistent with typical Si abundances of lunar basalt samples (in the maria) and feldspathic mineral samples (in the highlands). Our Si map shows that the Si abundance values on the Moon are typically between 17 and 28 wt%. The obtained Si map will provide an important aspect in both understanding the distribution of minerals and the evolution of the lunar surface since its formation.

  6. Mapping of trophic states based on nutrients concentration and phytoplankton abundance in Jatibarang Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudiyanti, Siti; Anggoro, Sutrisno; Rahman, Arif

    2018-02-01

    Jatibarang Reservoir is one of the Indonesian Reservoirs, which used for human activities such as tourism and agriculture. These activities will provide input of organic matter and nutrients into the water. These materials will impact water quality and eutrophication process. Eutrophication is the water enrichment by nutrients, especially nitrogen and phosphorus which can promote the growth of phytoplankton. Some indicators of eutrophication are increasing nutrients, trophic states, and change of phytoplankton composition. The relationship between water quality and phytoplankton community can be used as an indicator of trophic states in Jatibarang Reservoir. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of nutrients concentration and phytoplankton abundance to the trophic states and mapping trophic states based on nutrients concentration and phytoplankton in Jatibarang Reservoir. This study was conducted in June and July 2017 at 9 stations around Jatibarang Reservoir. The results showed that average concentration of nitrate, phosphate, and chlorophyll-a in Jatibarang Reservoir was 0.69 mg/L, 0.27 mg/L, and 1.66 mg/m3, respectively. The phytoplankton abundance ranged 16-62,200 cells/L, consists of 21 genera of four classes, i.e. Chlorophyceae, Cyanophyceae, Bacillariophyceae, and Dinophyceae. Cyanophyceae was a dominant phytoplankton group based on the composition of abundance (>80%). High nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton dominated by Anabaena (Cyanophyceae) which indicated that the waters in Jatibarang Reservoir were eutrophic.

  7. Internal Variations in Empirical Oxygen Abundances for Giant H II Regions in the Galaxy NGC 2403

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Ye-Wei; Lin, Lin; Kong, Xu

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a spectroscopic investigation of 11 {{H}} {{II}} regions in the nearby galaxy NGC 2403. The {{H}} {{II}} regions are observed with a long-slit spectrograph mounted on the 2.16 m telescope at XingLong station of National Astronomical Observatories of China. For each of the {{H}} {{II}} regions, spectra are extracted at different nebular radii along the slit-coverage. Oxygen abundances are empirically estimated from the strong-line indices R23, N2O2, O3N2, and N2 for each spectrophotometric unit, with both observation- and model-based calibrations adopted into the derivation. Radial profiles of these diversely estimated abundances are drawn for each nebula. In the results, the oxygen abundances separately estimated with the prescriptions on the basis of observations and models, albeit from the same spectral index, systematically deviate from each other; at the same time, the spectral indices R23 and N2O2 are distributed with flat profiles, whereas N2 and O3N2 exhibit apparent gradients with the nebular radius. Because our study naturally samples various ionization levels, which inherently decline at larger radii within individual {{H}} {{II}} regions, the radial distributions indicate not only the robustness of R23 and N2O2 against ionization variations but also the sensitivity of N2 and O3N2 to the ionization parameter. The results in this paper provide observational corroboration of the theoretical prediction about the deviation in the empirical abundance diagnostics. Our future work is planned to investigate metal-poor {{H}} {{II}} regions with measurable T e, in an attempt to recalibrate the strong-line indices and consequently disclose the cause of the discrepancies between the empirical oxygen abundances.

  8. Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering Data From 1989-2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coggins,, Lewis G.; Walters, Carl J.

    2009-01-01

    Mark-recapture methods have been used for the past two decades to assess trends in adult abundance and recruitment of the Little Colorado River (LCR) population of humpback chub. These methods indicate that the adult population declined through the 1980s and early 1990s but has been increasing for the past decade. Recruitment appears also to have increased, particularly in the 2003-4 period. Considering a range of assumed natural mortality-rates and magnitude of ageing error, it is unlikely that there are currently less than 6,000 adults or more than 10,000 adults. Our best estimate of the current adult (age 4 years or more) population is approximately 7,650 fish. Recent humpback chub assessments using the Age-Structured Mark-Recapture model (ASMR) and reported in 2006 (Melis and others, 2006) and 2008 (Coggins, 2008a,b) have provided abundance and recruitment trend estimates that have changed progressively over time as more data are considered by the model. The general pattern of change implies a less severe decline in adult abundance during the late 1980s through early 1990s, with attendant changes in recruitment supporting this demographic pattern. We have been concerned that these changes are not indicative of the true population and may be associated with a 'retrospective' bias as additional data are included in the ASMR model. To investigate this possibility, we developed a realistic individual-based simulation model (IBM) to generate replicate artificial data sets with similar characteristics to the true humpback chub data. The artificial data have known abundance trends and we analyzed these data with ASMR. On the basis of these simulations, we believe that errors in assigning age (and therefore brood-year) to fish based on their length are likely to have caused the retrospective bias pattern seen in the assessments and to have caused both less severe trends in the adult abundance estimates and progressively more severe downward bias in estimates of adult

  9. Designing deep sequencing experiments: detecting structural variation and estimating transcript abundance.

    PubMed

    Bashir, Ali; Bansal, Vikas; Bafna, Vineet

    2010-06-18

    Massively parallel DNA sequencing technologies have enabled the sequencing of several individual human genomes. These technologies are also being used in novel ways for mRNA expression profiling, genome-wide discovery of transcription-factor binding sites, small RNA discovery, etc. The multitude of sequencing platforms, each with their unique characteristics, pose a number of design challenges, regarding the technology to be used and the depth of sequencing required for a particular sequencing application. Here we describe a number of analytical and empirical results to address design questions for two applications: detection of structural variations from paired-end sequencing and estimating mRNA transcript abundance. For structural variation, our results provide explicit trade-offs between the detection and resolution of rearrangement breakpoints, and the optimal mix of paired-read insert lengths. Specifically, we prove that optimal detection and resolution of breakpoints is achieved using a mix of exactly two insert library lengths. Furthermore, we derive explicit formulae to determine these insert length combinations, enabling a 15% improvement in breakpoint detection at the same experimental cost. On empirical short read data, these predictions show good concordance with Illumina 200 bp and 2 Kbp insert length libraries. For transcriptome sequencing, we determine the sequencing depth needed to detect rare transcripts from a small pilot study. With only 1 Million reads, we derive corrections that enable almost perfect prediction of the underlying expression probability distribution, and use this to predict the sequencing depth required to detect low expressed genes with greater than 95% probability. Together, our results form a generic framework for many design considerations related to high-throughput sequencing. We provide software tools http://bix.ucsd.edu/projects/NGS-DesignTools to derive platform independent guidelines for designing sequencing experiments

  10. Abundance and Survival Rates of the Hawai’i Island Associated Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Stock

    PubMed Central

    Tyne, Julian A.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Johnston, David W.; Bejder, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai’i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture–recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai’i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture–recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE±0.05. Open and closed capture–recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221±4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631±60.1 SE, (95% CI 524–761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai’i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this

  11. Abundance and survival rates of the Hawai'i Island associated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) stock.

    PubMed

    Tyne, Julian A; Pollock, Kenneth H; Johnston, David W; Bejder, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai'i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture-recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai'i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture-recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE ± 0.05. Open and closed capture-recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221 ± 4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631 ± 60.1 SE, (95% CI 524-761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai'i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this Hawai'i Island

  12. Geostatistical Modeling of Sediment Abundance in a Heterogeneous Basalt Aquifer at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Welhan, John A.; Farabaugh, Renee L.; Merrick, Melissa J.; Anderson, Steven R.

    2007-01-01

    The spatial distribution of sediment in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was evaluated and modeled to improve the parameterization of hydraulic conductivity (K) for a subregional-scale ground-water flow model being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The aquifer is hosted within a layered series of permeable basalts within which intercalated beds of fine-grained sediment constitute local confining units. These sediments have K values as much as six orders of magnitude lower than the most permeable basalt, and previous flow-model calibrations have shown that hydraulic conductivity is sensitive to the proportion of intercalated sediment. Stratigraphic data in the form of sediment thicknesses from 333 boreholes in and around the Idaho National Laboratory were evaluated as grouped subsets of lithologic units (composite units) corresponding to their relative time-stratigraphic position. The results indicate that median sediment abundances of the stratigraphic units below the water table are statistically invariant (stationary) in a spatial sense and provide evidence of stationarity across geologic time, as well. Based on these results, the borehole data were kriged as two-dimensional spatial data sets representing the sediment content of the layers that discretize the ground-water flow model in the uppermost 300 feet of the aquifer. Multiple indicator kriging (mIK) was used to model the geographic distribution of median sediment abundance within each layer by defining the local cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) of sediment via indicator variograms defined at multiple thresholds. The mIK approach is superior to ordinary kriging because it provides a statistically best estimate of sediment abundance (the local median) drawn from the distribution of local borehole data, independent of any assumption of normality. A methodology is proposed for delineating and constraining the assignment of hydraulic conductivity zones for parameter estimation, based on the

  13. Compensating for geographic variation in detection probability with water depth improves abundance estimates of coastal marine megafauna.

    PubMed

    Hagihara, Rie; Jones, Rhondda E; Sobtzick, Susan; Cleguer, Christophe; Garrigue, Claire; Marsh, Helene

    2018-01-01

    The probability of an aquatic animal being available for detection is typically <1. Accounting for covariates that reduce the probability of detection is important for obtaining robust estimates of the population abundance and determining its status and trends. The dugong (Dugong dugon) is a bottom-feeding marine mammal and a seagrass community specialist. We hypothesized that the probability of a dugong being available for detection is dependent on water depth and that dugongs spend more time underwater in deep-water seagrass habitats than in shallow-water seagrass habitats. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying the depth use of 28 wild dugongs fitted with GPS satellite transmitters and time-depth recorders (TDRs) at three sites with distinct seagrass depth distributions: 1) open waters supporting extensive seagrass meadows to 40 m deep (Torres Strait, 6 dugongs, 2015); 2) a protected bay (average water depth 6.8 m) with extensive shallow seagrass beds (Moreton Bay, 13 dugongs, 2011 and 2012); and 3) a mixture of lagoon, coral and seagrass habitats to 60 m deep (New Caledonia, 9 dugongs, 2013). The fitted instruments were used to measure the times the dugongs spent in the experimentally determined detection zones under various environmental conditions. The estimated probability of detection was applied to aerial survey data previously collected at each location. In general, dugongs were least available for detection in Torres Strait, and the population estimates increased 6-7 fold using depth-specific availability correction factors compared with earlier estimates that assumed homogeneous detection probability across water depth and location. Detection probabilities were higher in Moreton Bay and New Caledonia than Torres Strait because the water transparency in these two locations was much greater than in Torres Strait and the effect of correcting for depth-specific detection probability much less. The methodology has application to visual survey of coastal

  14. Accurate abundance determinations in S stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neyskens, P.; Van Eck, S.; Plez, B.; Goriely, S.; Siess, L.; Jorissen, A.

    2011-12-01

    S-type stars are thought to be the first objects, during their evolution on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB), to experience s-process nucleosynthesis and third dredge-ups, and therefore to exhibit s-process signatures in their atmospheres. Until present, the modeling of these processes is subject to large uncertainties. Precise abundance determinations in S stars are of extreme importance for constraining e.g., the depth and the formation of the 13C pocket. In this paper a large grid of MARCS model atmospheres for S stars is used to derive precise abundances of key s-process elements and iron. A first estimation of the atmospheric parameters is obtained using a set of well-chosen photometric and spectroscopic indices for selecting the best model atmosphere of each S star. Abundances are derived from spectral line synthesis, using the selected model atmosphere. Special interest is paid to technetium, an element without stable isotopes. Its detection in stars is considered as the best possible signature that the star effectively populates the thermally-pulsing AGB (TP-AGB) phase of evolution. The derived Tc/Zr abundances are compared, as a function of the derived [Zr/Fe] overabundances, with AGB stellar model predictions. The computed [Zr/Fe] overabundances are in good agreement with the AGB stellar evolution model predictions, while the Tc/Zr abundances are slightly over-predicted. This discrepancy can help to set stronger constraints on nucleosynthesis and mixing mechanisms in AGB stars.

  15. Estimation of phenotypic variability in symbiotic nitrogen fixation ability of common bean under drought stress using 15N natural abundance in grain.

    PubMed

    Polania, Jose; Poschenrieder, Charlotte; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most important food legume, cultivated by small farmers and is usually exposed to unfavorable conditions with minimum use of inputs. Drought and low soil fertility, especially phosphorus and nitrogen (N) deficiencies, are major limitations to bean yield in smallholder systems. Beans can derive part of their required N from the atmosphere through symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF). Drought stress severely limits SNF ability of plants. The main objectives of this study were to: (i) test and validate the use of 15 N natural abundance in grain to quantify phenotypic differences in SNF ability for its implementation in breeding programs of common bean with bush growth habit aiming to improve SNF, and (ii) quantify phenotypic differences in SNF under drought to identify superior genotypes that could serve as parents. Field studies were conducted at CIAT-Palmira, Colombia using a set of 36 bean genotypes belonging to the Middle American gene pool for evaluation in two seasons with two levels of water supply (irrigated and drought stress). We used 15 N natural abundance method to compare SNF ability estimated from shoot tissue sampled at mid-pod filling growth stage vs. grain tissue sampled at harvest. Our results showed positive and significant correlation between nitrogen derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) estimated using shoot tissue at mid-pod filling and %Ndfa estimated using grain tissue at harvest. Both methods showed phenotypic variability in SNF ability under both drought and irrigated conditions and a significant reduction in SNF ability was observed under drought stress. We suggest that the method of estimating Ndfa using grain tissue (Ndfa-G) could be applied in bean breeding programs to improve SNF ability. Using this method of Ndfa-G, we identified four bean lines (RCB 593, SEA 15, NCB 226 and BFS 29) that combine greater SNF ability with greater grain yield under drought stress and these could serve as potential

  16. An abundance of rare functional variants in 202 drug target genes sequenced in 14,002 people

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Matthew R.; Wegmann, Daniel; Ehm, Margaret G.; Kessner, Darren; St. Jean, Pamela; Verzilli, Claudio; Shen, Judong; Tang, Zhengzheng; Bacanu, Silviu-Alin; Fraser, Dana; Warren, Liling; Aponte, Jennifer; Zawistowski, Matthew; Liu, Xiao; Zhang, Hao; Zhang, Yong; Li, Jun; Li, Yun; Li, Li; Woollard, Peter; Topp, Simon; Hall, Matthew D.; Nangle, Keith; Wang, Jun; Abecasis, Gonçalo; Cardon, Lon R.; Zöllner, Sebastian; Whittaker, John C.; Chissoe, Stephanie L.; Novembre, John; Mooser, Vincent

    2015-01-01

    Rare genetic variants contribute to complex disease risk; however, the abundance of rare variants in human populations remains unknown. We explored this spectrum of variation by sequencing 202 genes encoding drug targets in 14,002 individuals. We find rare variants are abundant (one every 17 bases) and geographically localized, such that even with large sample sizes, rare variant catalogs will be largely incomplete. We used the observed patterns of variation to estimate population growth parameters, the proportion of variants in a given frequency class that are putatively deleterious, and mutation rates for each gene. Overall we conclude that, due to rapid population growth and weak purifying selection, human populations harbor an abundance of rare variants, many of which are deleterious and have relevance to understanding disease risk. PMID:22604722

  17. Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Link, W.A.; Hines, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km2. Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km2) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

  18. View Estimation Based on Value System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yasutake; Shimada, Kouki; Asada, Minoru

    Estimation of a caregiver's view is one of the most important capabilities for a child to understand the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver, that is, to infer the intention of behavior and/or to learn the observed behavior efficiently. We hypothesize that the child develops this ability in the same way as behavior learning motivated by an intrinsic reward, that is, he/she updates the model of the estimated view of his/her own during the behavior imitated from the observation of the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver based on minimizing the estimation error of the reward during the behavior. From this view, this paper shows a method for acquiring such a capability based on a value system from which values can be obtained by reinforcement learning. The parameters of the view estimation are updated based on the temporal difference error (hereafter TD error: estimation error of the state value), analogous to the way such that the parameters of the state value of the behavior are updated based on the TD error. Experiments with simple humanoid robots show the validity of the method, and the developmental process parallel to young children's estimation of its own view during the imitation of the observed behavior of the caregiver is discussed.

  19. A new solar carbon abundance based on non-LTE CN molecular spectra

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mount, G. H.; Linsky, J. L.

    1975-01-01

    A detailed non-LTE analysis of solar CN spectra strongly suggest a revised carbon abundance for the sun. We recommend a value of log carbon abundance = 8.35 plus or minus 0.15 which is significantly lower than the presently accepted value of log carbon abundance = 8.55. This revision may have important consequences in astrophysics.

  20. Estimating the effectiveness of further sampling in species inventories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keating, K.A.; Quinn, J.F.; Ivie, M.A.; Ivie, L.L.

    1998-01-01

    Estimators of the number of additional species expected in the next ??n samples offer a potentially important tool for improving cost-effectiveness of species inventories but are largely untested. We used Monte Carlo methods to compare 11 such estimators, across a range of community structures and sampling regimes, and validated our results, where possible, using empirical data from vascular plant and beetle inventories from Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. We found that B. Efron and R. Thisted's 1976 negative binomial estimator was most robust to differences in community structure and that it was among the most accurate estimators when sampling was from model communities with structures resembling the large, heterogeneous communities that are the likely targets of major inventory efforts. Other estimators may be preferred under specific conditions, however. For example, when sampling was from model communities with highly even species-abundance distributions, estimates based on the Michaelis-Menten model were most accurate; when sampling was from moderately even model communities with S=10 species or communities with highly uneven species-abundance distributions, estimates based on Gleason's (1922) species-area model were most accurate. We suggest that use of such methods in species inventories can help improve cost-effectiveness by providing an objective basis for redirecting sampling to more-productive sites, methods, or time periods as the expectation of detecting additional species becomes unacceptably low.

  1. Modeling the relationship between water level, wild rice abundance, and waterfowl abundance at a central North American wetland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aagaard, Kevin; Eash, Josh D.; Ford, Walt; Heglund, Patricia J.; McDowell, Michelle; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

    2018-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests wild rice (Zizania palustris), an important resource for migrating waterfowl, is declining in parts of central North America, providing motivation to rigorously quantify the relationship between waterfowl and wild rice. A hierarchical mixed-effects model was applied to data on waterfowl abundance for 16 species, wild rice stem density, and two measures of water depth (true water depth at vegetation sampling locations and water surface elevation). Results provide evidence for an effect of true water depth (TWD) on wild rice abundance (posterior mean estimate for TWD coefficient, β TWD = 0.92, 95% confidence interval = 0.11—1.74), but not for an effect of wild rice stem density or water surface elevation on local waterfowl abundance (posterior mean values for relevant parameters overlapped 0). Refined protocols for sampling design and more consistent sampling frequency to increase data quality should be pursued to overcome issues that may have obfuscated relationships evaluated here.

  2. Estimation of tiger densities in India using photographic captures and recaptures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, U.; Nichols, J.D.

    1998-01-01

    Previously applied methods for estimating tiger (Panthera tigris) abundance using total counts based on tracks have proved unreliable. In this paper we use a field method proposed by Karanth (1995), combining camera-trap photography to identify individual tigers based on stripe patterns, with capture-recapture estimators. We developed a sampling design for camera-trapping and used the approach to estimate tiger population size and density in four representative tiger habitats in different parts of India. The field method worked well and provided data suitable for analysis using closed capture-recapture models. The results suggest the potential for applying this methodology for estimating abundances, survival rates and other population parameters in tigers and other low density, secretive animal species with distinctive coat patterns or other external markings. Estimated probabilities of photo-capturing tigers present in the study sites ranged from 0.75 - 1.00. The estimated mean tiger densities ranged from 4.1 (SE hat= 1.31) to 11.7 (SE hat= 1.93) tigers/100 km2. The results support the previous suggestions of Karanth and Sunquist (1995) that densities of tigers and other large felids may be primarily determined by prey community structure at a given site.

  3. New method for estimating bacterial cell abundances in natural samples by use of sublimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glavin, Daniel P.; Cleaves, H. James; Schubert, Michael; Aubrey, Andrew; Bada, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples, including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert, were heated to a temperature of 500 degrees C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger, and the amount of adenine released from the samples was then determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approximately 10(5) to 10(9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation-based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI (4,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole) staining.

  4. Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N < 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (≥8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ≥ 0.5 if N ≤ 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ≥ 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates.

  5. Lithium abundances among solar-type pre-main-sequence stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strom, Karen M.; Wilkin, Francis P.; Strom, Stephen E.; Seaman, Robert L.

    1989-01-01

    Measurements of Li I 6707 A line strengths were carried out for two samples of pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars (L 1641 and Taurus-Auriga), and the Li abundances estimated for PMS stars are compared with those deduced from observations of Li line strengths for main-sequence stars in the Alpha Persei cluster. It was found that the maximum Li abundances among the PMS stars with solar mass values greater than 1.0 exceed the maximum abundances for Alpha Per stars by at least 0.3 dex. Some PMS stars, including few apparently young stars, showed large (greater than 1.0 dex) Li depletion, and some apparently old PMS stars showed little or no depletion.

  6. Temporal variability of local abundance, sex ratio and activity in the Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Casula, P.; Nichols, J.D.

    2003-01-01

    When capturing and marking of individuals is possible, the application of newly developed capture-recapture models can remove several sources of bias in the estimation of population parameters such as local abundance and sex ratio. For example, observation of distorted sex ratios in counts or captures can reflect either different abundances of the sexes or different sex-specific capture probabilities, and capture-recapture models can help distinguish between these two possibilities. Robust design models and a model selection procedure based on information-theoretic methods were applied to study the local population structure of the endemic Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly, Polyommatus coridon gennargenti. Seasonal variations of abundance, plus daily and weather-related variations of active populations of males and females were investigated. Evidence was found of protandry and male pioneering of the breeding space. Temporary emigration probability, which describes the proportion of the population not exposed to capture (e.g. absent from the study area) during the sampling process, was estimated, differed between sexes, and was related to temperature, a factor known to influence animal activity. The correlation between temporary emigration and average daily temperature suggested interpreting temporary emigration as inactivity of animals. Robust design models were used successfully to provide a detailed description of the population structure and activity in this butterfly and are recommended for studies of local abundance and animal activity in the field.

  7. Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav

    2014-12-01

    We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X -Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

  8. ESTIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF HARVESTED ESTUARINE BIVALVES WITH NATURAL-HISTORY-BASED HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Habitat suitability models are used to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of interest. The development of habitat suitability models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or anthropog...

  9. Model-based estimators of density and connectivity to inform conservation of spatially structured populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morin, Dana J.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Chris

    2017-01-01

    Conservation and management of spatially structured populations is challenging because solutions must consider where individuals are located, but also differential individual space use as a result of landscape heterogeneity. A recent extension of spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models, the ecological distance model, uses spatial encounter histories of individuals (e.g., a record of where individuals are detected across space, often sequenced over multiple sampling occasions), to estimate the relationship between space use and characteristics of a landscape, allowing simultaneous estimation of both local densities of individuals across space and connectivity at the scale of individual movement. We developed two model-based estimators derived from the SCR ecological distance model to quantify connectivity over a continuous surface: (1) potential connectivity—a metric of the connectivity of areas based on resistance to individual movement; and (2) density-weighted connectivity (DWC)—potential connectivity weighted by estimated density. Estimates of potential connectivity and DWC can provide spatial representations of areas that are most important for the conservation of threatened species, or management of abundant populations (i.e., areas with high density and landscape connectivity), and thus generate predictions that have great potential to inform conservation and management actions. We used a simulation study with a stationary trap design across a range of landscape resistance scenarios to evaluate how well our model estimates resistance, potential connectivity, and DWC. Correlation between true and estimated potential connectivity was high, and there was positive correlation and high spatial accuracy between estimated DWC and true DWC. We applied our approach to data collected from a population of black bears in New York, and found that forested areas represented low levels of resistance for black bears. We demonstrate that formal inference about measures

  10. Developing methods for assessing abundance and distribution of European oysters (Ostrea edulis) using towed video.

    PubMed

    Thorngren, Linnea; Dunér Holthuis, Thomas; Lindegarth, Susanne; Lindegarth, Mats

    2017-01-01

    Due to large-scale habitat losses and increasing pressures, benthic habitats in general, and perhaps oyster beds in particular, are commonly in decline and severely threatened on regional and global scales. Appropriate and cost-efficient methods for mapping and monitoring of the distribution, abundance and quality of remaining oyster populations are fundamental for sustainable management and conservation of these habitats and their associated values. Towed video has emerged as a promising method for surveying benthic communities in a both non-destructive and cost-efficient way. Here we examine its use as a tool for quantification and monitoring of oyster populations by (i) analysing how well abundances can be estimated and how living Ostrea edulis individuals can be distinguished from dead ones, (ii) estimating the variability within and among observers as well as the spatial variability at a number of scales, and finally (iii) evaluating the precision of estimated abundances under different scenarios for monitoring. Overall, the results show that the can be used to quantify abundance and occurrence of Ostrea edulis in heterogeneous environments. There was a strong correlation between abundances determined in the field and abundances estimated by video-analyses (r2 = 0.93), even though video analyses underestimated the total abundance of living oysters by 20%. Additionally, the method was largely repeatable within and among observers and revealed no evident bias in identification of living and dead oysters. We also concluded that the spatial variability was an order of magnitude larger than that due to observer errors. Subsequent modelling of precision showed that the total area sampled was the main determinant of precision and provided general method for determining precision. This study provides a thorough validation of the application of towed video on quantitative estimations of live oysters. The results suggest that the method can indeed be very useful for

  11. Developing methods for assessing abundance and distribution of European oysters (Ostrea edulis) using towed video

    PubMed Central

    Dunér Holthuis, Thomas; Lindegarth, Susanne; Lindegarth, Mats

    2017-01-01

    Due to large-scale habitat losses and increasing pressures, benthic habitats in general, and perhaps oyster beds in particular, are commonly in decline and severely threatened on regional and global scales. Appropriate and cost-efficient methods for mapping and monitoring of the distribution, abundance and quality of remaining oyster populations are fundamental for sustainable management and conservation of these habitats and their associated values. Towed video has emerged as a promising method for surveying benthic communities in a both non-destructive and cost-efficient way. Here we examine its use as a tool for quantification and monitoring of oyster populations by (i) analysing how well abundances can be estimated and how living Ostrea edulis individuals can be distinguished from dead ones, (ii) estimating the variability within and among observers as well as the spatial variability at a number of scales, and finally (iii) evaluating the precision of estimated abundances under different scenarios for monitoring. Overall, the results show that the can be used to quantify abundance and occurrence of Ostrea edulis in heterogeneous environments. There was a strong correlation between abundances determined in the field and abundances estimated by video-analyses (r2 = 0.93), even though video analyses underestimated the total abundance of living oysters by 20%. Additionally, the method was largely repeatable within and among observers and revealed no evident bias in identification of living and dead oysters. We also concluded that the spatial variability was an order of magnitude larger than that due to observer errors. Subsequent modelling of precision showed that the total area sampled was the main determinant of precision and provided general method for determining precision. This study provides a thorough validation of the application of towed video on quantitative estimations of live oysters. The results suggest that the method can indeed be very useful for

  12. Abundance of litter on Condor seamount (Azores, Portugal, Northeast Atlantic)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pham, C. K.; Gomes-Pereira, J. N.; Isidro, E. J.; Santos, R. S.; Morato, T.

    2013-12-01

    Marine litter is an emerging problem for the world's ocean health but little is known on its distribution and abundance on seamounts and how it affects deep-sea ecosystems. The scientific underwater laboratory set up on Condor seamount offered an ideal case study for the first documentation of litter distribution on a shallow seamount with historical fishing. A total of 48 video transects deployed on the summit (n=45) and the northern flank (n=3) covered an area of 0.031 and 0.025km2, respectively, revealing 55 litter items. Litter density on the summit was 1439 litter items km-2, whilst on the deeper northern flank, estimates indicate densities of 397 litter items km-2. Lost fishing line was the dominant litter item encountered on both areas (73% of total litter on the summit and 50% on northern flank), all being entirely or partly entangled in the locally abundant gorgonians Dentomuricea cf. meteor and Viminella flagellum. Other items included lost weights, anchors and glass bottles. The predominance of lost fishing gear identifies the source of litter on Condor seamount as exclusively ocean-based and related to fishing activities. Abundance of litter on the Condor seamount was much lower than that reported from other locations closer to populated areas.

  13. Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi).

    PubMed

    Mali, Ivana; Duarte, Adam; Forstner, Michael R J

    2018-01-01

    Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter ( Pseudemys gorzugi ) while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species. Although baited

  14. High-resolution abundance analysis of the metallic-line star HR 7250

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elmaslı, Aslı; Ünal, Kübraözge; Çalışkan, Şeyma

    2018-07-01

    We estimated the stellar parameters and chemical abundances of the highly neglected A-type star HR 7250. The star's high resolution spectrum, spanning a wavelength range from 3900 to 7900 Å, was obtained at the TÜBİTAK National Observatory. We derived the abundances of 14 elements (O, Na, Mg, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Sr, Y, and Ba) for HR 7250 from the unblended lines of the star's spectrum. Our analysis shows that HR 7250 is a chemically peculiar Am star. We also estimated its age and mass as 400 ± 70 Myr and 3.25 ± 0.17 M⊙ from evolutionary tracks and isochrones.

  15. Physical properties (particle size, rock abundance) from thermal infrared remote observations: Implications for Mars landing sites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christensen, P. R.; Edgett, Kenneth S.

    1994-01-01

    Critical to the assessment of potential sites for the 1997 Pathfinder landing is estimation of general physical properties of the martian surface. Surface properties have been studied using a variety of spacecraft and earth-based remote sensing observations, plus in situ studies at the Viking lander sites. Because of their value in identifying landing hazards and defining scientific objectives, we focus this discussion on thermal inertia and rock abundance derived from middle-infrared (6 to 30 microns) observations. Used in conjunction with other datasets, particularly albedo and Viking orbiter images, thermal inertia and rock abundance provide clues about the properties of potential Mars landing sites.

  16. The Influence of Weather and Lemmings on Spatiotemporal Variation in the Abundance of Multiple Avian Guilds in the Arctic

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, Barry G.; Franke, Alastair; Derocher, Andrew E.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010–2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between weather, spring snow

  17. The influence of weather and lemmings on spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in the arctic.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Barry G; Franke, Alastair; Derocher, Andrew E

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010-2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between weather, spring snow

  18. Estimating the distribution of harvested estuarine bivalves with natural-history-based habitat suitability models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Habitat suitability models are useful to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of concern. In the case of harvested bivalves, those models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or human-...

  19. Moist-soil seed abundance in managed wetlands in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kross, J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.; Penny, E.J.; Pearse, A.T.

    2008-01-01

    Managed moist-soil units support early succession herbaceous vegetation that produces seeds, tubers, and other plant parts used by waterfowl in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV), USA. We conducted a stratified multi-stage sample survey on state and federal lands in the MAV of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri during autumns 2002?2004 to generate a contemporary estimate of combined dry mass of seeds and tubers (herein seed abundance) in managed moist-soil units for use by the Lower Mississippi Valley Joint Venture (LMVJV) of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We also examined variation in mean seed abundance among moist-soil units in 2003 and 2004 in relation to management intensity (active or passive), soil pH and nutrient levels, proportional occurrence of plant life-forms (e.g., grass, flatsedge, and forb; vine; woody plants), and unit area. Estimates of mean seed abundance were similar in 2002 (X over bar = 537.1 kg/ha, SE = 100.1) and 2004 (X over bar = 555.2 kg/ha, SE = 105.2) but 35?40% less in 2003 (X over bar = 396.8 kg/ha, SE = 116.1). Averaged over years, seed abundance was 496.3 kg/ha (SE = 62.0; CV = 12.5%). Multiple regression analysis indicated seed abundance varied among moist-soil units inversely with proportional occurrence of woody vegetation and unit area and was greater in actively than passively managed units (R2adj = 0.37). Species of early succession grasses occurred more frequently in actively than passively managed units (P < 0.09), whereas mid- and late-succession plants occurred more often in passively managed units (P < 0.02). We recommend the LMVJV consider 556 kg/ha as a measure of seed abundance for use in estimating carrying capacity in managed moist-soil units on public lands in the MAV. We recommend active management of moist-soil units to achieve maximum potential seed production and further research to determine recovery rates of seeds of various sizes from core samples and the relationship between

  20. An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances. Ph.D. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiedenbeck, M. E.

    1977-01-01

    An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope was developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei by employing an energy loss - residual energy technique. A detailed analysis was made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument. A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, was developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. It was shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty in the derived source ratios are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances. These results were applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

  1. Estimating cavity tree and snag abundance using negative binomial regression models and nearest neighbor imputation methods

    Treesearch

    Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara M. Barrett

    2009-01-01

    Cavity tree and snag abundance data are highly variable and contain many zero observations. We predict cavity tree and snag abundance from variables that are readily available from forest cover maps or remotely sensed data using negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated NB, and zero-altered NB (ZANB) regression models as well as nearest neighbor (NN) imputation methods....

  2. Activity and the Li abundances in the FGK dwarfs⋆

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishenina, T. V.; Soubiran, C.; Kovtyukh, V. V.; Katsova, M. M.; Livshits, M. A.

    2012-11-01

    Aims: The aim of the present study is to determine the Li abundances for a large set of the FGK dwarfs and to analyse the connections between the Li content, stellar parameters, and activity. Methods: The atmospheric parameters, rotational velocities and the Li abundances were determined from a homogeneous collection of the echelle spectra with high resolution and a high signal-to-noise ratio. The rotational velocities vsini were determined by calibrating the cross-correlation function. The effective temperatures Teff were estimated by the line-depth ratio method. The surface gravities log g were computed by two methods: the iron ionization balance and the parallax. The LTE Li abundances were computed using synthetic spectra method. The behaviour of the Li abundance was examined in correlation with Teff, [Fe/H] , as well as with vsini and the level of activity in three stellar groups of the different temperature range. Results: The stellar parameters and the Li abundances are presented for 150 slow rotating stars of the lower part of the main sequence. The studied stars show a decline in the Li abundance with decreasing temperature Teff and a significant spread, which should be due to the difference of age of stars. The correlations between the Li abundances, rotational velocities vsini, and the level of the chromospheric activity were discovered for the stars with 6000 > Teff > 5700 K, and it is tighter for the stars with 5700 > Teff > 5200 K. The target stars with Teff < 5200 K do not show any correlation between log A(Li) and vsini. The relationship between the chromospheric and coronal fluxes in active with detected Li as well as in less active stars gives a hint that there exist different conditions in the action of the dynamo mechanism in those stars. Conclusions: We found that the Li-activity correlation is evident only in a restricted temperature range and the Li abundance spread seems to be present in a group of low chromospheric activity stars that also

  3. Measuring Housework Participation: The Gap between "Stylised" Questionnaire Estimates and Diary-Based Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kan, Man Yee

    2008-01-01

    This article compares stylised (questionnaire-based) estimates and diary-based estimates of housework time collected from the same respondents. Data come from the Home On-line Study (1999-2001), a British national household survey that contains both types of estimates (sample size = 632 men and 666 women). It shows that the gap between the two…

  4. Declining Abundance of Beaked Whales (Family Ziphiidae) in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Jeffrey E.; Barlow, Jay P.

    2013-01-01

    Beaked whales are among the most diverse yet least understood groups of marine mammals. A diverse set of mostly anthropogenic threats necessitates improvement in our ability to assess population status for this cryptic group. The Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA) conducted six ship line-transect cetacean abundance surveys in the California Current off the contiguous western United States between 1991 and 2008. We used a Bayesian hidden-process modeling approach to estimate abundance and population trends of beaked whales using sightings data from these surveys. We also compiled records of beaked whale stranding events (3 genera, at least 8 species) on adjacent beaches from 1900 to 2012, to help assess population status of beaked whales in the northern part of the California Current. Bayesian posterior summaries for trend parameters provide strong evidence of declining beaked whale abundance in the study area. The probability of negative trend for Cuvier's beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) during 1991–2008 was 0.84, with 1991 and 2008 estimates of 10771 (CV = 0.51) and ≈7550 (CV = 0.55), respectively. The probability of decline for Mesoplodon spp. (pooled across species) was 0.96, with 1991 and 2008 estimates of 2206 (CV = 0.46) and 811 (CV = 0.65). The mean posterior estimates for average rate of decline were 2.9% and 7.0% per year. There was no evidence of abundance trend for Baird's beaked whale (Berardius bairdii), for which annual abundance estimates in the survey area ranged from ≈900 to 1300 (CV≈1.3). Stranding data were consistent with the survey results. Causes of apparent declines are unknown. Direct impacts of fisheries (bycatch) can be ruled out, but impacts of anthropogenic sound (e.g., naval active sonar) and ecosystem change are plausible hypotheses that merit investigation. PMID:23341907

  5. Abundance Analysis of the Helium Weak Star 20-TAURI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mon, M.; Hirata, R.; Sadakane, K.

    An abundance analysis of the helium-weak star 20 Tauri is performed with a fully line-blanketed model atmosphere. The adopted atmospheric parameters are Teff =12600 K and log g=3.2. These values are lower by about 1000 K in Teff and 0.3 in log g than those used in previous investigations, and 20 Tau is the coolest star among the group of helium-weak star. A value of log N(He)/N(H)=-1.7 is found from the average of six He I lines. Mg, Si, Ca, and Ni are underabundant, while P and Mn are overabundant. The abundances of C, Ti, Cr, and Fe coincide with the solar values within ±0.3 dex. Upper limits of the abundances of S, Sc, and Sr are estimated and these elements are not overabundant. The observed abundance pattern in 20 Tau is quite different from those in other helium-weak stars, while it shows a mild characteristic of Mn-Hg stars.

  6. Chemical abundances in the globular clusters NGC6229 and NGC6779

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khamidullina, D. A.; Sharina, M. E.; Shimansky, V. V.; Davoust, E.

    2014-10-01

    Long-slit medium-resolution spectra of the Galactic globular clusters (GCs) NGC6229 and NGC6779, obtained with the CARELEC spectrograph at the 1.93-m telescope of the Haute-Provence observatory, have been used to determine the age, helium abundance (Y), and metallicity [Fe/H] as well as the first estimate of the abundances of C, N, O, Mg, Ca, Ti, and Cr for these objects. We solved this task by comparing the observed spectra and the integrated synthetic spectra, calculated with the use of the stellar atmosphere models with the parameters preset for the stars from these clusters. The model mass estimates, T eff, and log g were derived by comparing the observed "color-magnitude" diagrams and the theoretical isochrones. The summing-up of the synthetic blanketed stellar spectra was conducted according to the Chabrier mass function. To test the accuracy of the results, we estimated the chemical abundances, [Fe/H], log t, and Y for the NGC5904 and NGC6254 clusters, which, according to the literature, are considered to be the closest analogues of the two GCs of our study. Using the medium-resolution spectra from the library of Schiavon et al., we obtained for these two clusters a satisfactory agreement with the reported estimates for all the parameters within the errors. We derived the following cluster parameters. NGC6229: [Fe/H] = -1.65 dex, t = 12.6 Gyr, Y = 0.26, [ α/Fe] = 0.28 dex; NGC6779: [Fe/H] = -1.9 dex, t = 12.6 Gyr, Y = 0.23, [ α/Fe] = 0.08 dex; NGC5904: [Fe/H] = -1.6 dex, t = 12.6 Gyr, Y = 0.30, [ α/Fe] = 0.35 dex; NGC6254: [Fe/H] = -1.52 dex, t = 11.2 Gyr, Y = 0.30, [ α/Fe] = 0.025 dex. The value [ α/Fe] denotes the average of the Ca and Mg abundances.

  7. Viral prevalence increases with regional colony abundance in honey bee drones (Apis mellifera L).

    PubMed

    Forfert, Nadège; Natsopoulou, Myrsini E; Paxton, Robert J; Moritz, Robin F A

    2016-10-01

    Transmission among colonies is a central feature for the epidemiology of honey bee pathogens. High colony abundance may promote transmission among colonies independently of apiary layout, making colony abundance a potentially important parameter determining pathogen prevalence in populations of honey bees. To test this idea, we sampled male honey bees (drones) from seven distinct drone congregation areas (DCA), and used their genotypes to estimate colony abundance at each site. A multiplex ligation dependent probe amplification assay (MLPA) was used to assess the prevalence of ten viruses, using five common viral targets, in individual drones. There was a significant positive association between colony abundance and number of viral infections. This result highlights the potential importance of high colony abundance for pathogen prevalence, possibly because high population density facilitates pathogen transmission. Pathogen prevalence in drones collected from DCAs may be a useful means of estimating the disease status of a population of honey bees during the mating season, especially for localities with a large number of wild or feral colonies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Diatom species abundance and morphologically-based dissolution proxies in coastal Southern Ocean assemblages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warnock, Jonathan P.; Scherer, Reed P.

    2015-07-01

    Taphonomic processes alter diatom assemblages in sediments, thus potentially negatively impacting paleoclimate records at various rates across space, time, and taxa. However, quantitative taphonomic data is rarely included in diatom-based paleoenvironmental reconstructions and no objective standard exists for comparing diatom dissolution in sediments recovered from marine depositional settings, including the Southern Ocean's opal belt. Furthermore, identifying changes to diatom dissolution through time can provide insight into the efficiency of both upper water column nutrient recycling and the biological pump. This is significant in that reactive metal proxies (e.g. Al, Ti) in the sediments only account for post-depositional dissolution, not the water column where the majority of dissolution occurs. In order to assess the range of variability of responses to dissolution in a typical Southern Ocean diatom community and provide a quantitative guideline for assessing taphonomic variability in diatoms recovered from core material, a sediment trap sample was subjected to controlled, serial dissolution. By evaluating dissolution-induced changes to diatom species' relative abundance, three preservational categories of diatoms have been identified: gracile, intermediate, and robust. The relative abundances of these categories can be used to establish a preservation grade for diatom assemblages. However, changes to the relative abundances of diatom species in sediment samples may reflect taphonomic or ecological factors. In order to address this complication, relative abundance changes have been tied to dissolution-induced morphological change to the areolae of Fragilariopsis curta, a significant sea-ice indicator in Southern Ocean sediments. This correlation allows differentiation between gracile species loss to dissolution versus ecological factors or sediment winnowing. These results mirror a similar morphological dissolution index from a parallel study utilizing

  9. Allometric scaling theory applied to FIA biomass estimation

    Treesearch

    David C. Chojnacky

    2002-01-01

    Tree biomass estimates in the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database are derived from numerous methodologies whose abundance and complexity raise questions about consistent results throughout the U.S. A new model based on allometric scaling theory ("WBE") offers simplified methodology and a theoretically sound basis for improving the reliability and...

  10. Entropy-based adaptive attitude estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiani, Maryam; Barzegar, Aylin; Pourtakdoust, Seid H.

    2018-03-01

    Gaussian approximation filters have increasingly been developed to enhance the accuracy of attitude estimation in space missions. The effective employment of these algorithms demands accurate knowledge of system dynamics and measurement models, as well as their noise characteristics, which are usually unavailable or unreliable. An innovation-based adaptive filtering approach has been adopted as a solution to this problem; however, it exhibits two major challenges, namely appropriate window size selection and guaranteed assurance of positive definiteness for the estimated noise covariance matrices. The current work presents two novel techniques based on relative entropy and confidence level concepts in order to address the abovementioned drawbacks. The proposed adaptation techniques are applied to two nonlinear state estimation algorithms of the extended Kalman filter and cubature Kalman filter for attitude estimation of a low earth orbit satellite equipped with three-axis magnetometers and Sun sensors. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptation scheme is demonstrated by means of comprehensive sensitivity analysis on the system and environmental parameters by using extensive independent Monte Carlo simulations.

  11. Chemical Abundances of Planetary Nebulae in the Substructures of M31

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Xuan; García-Benito, Rubén; Guerrero, Martín A.; Liu, Xiaowei; Yuan, Haibo; Zhang, Yong; Zhang, Bing

    2015-12-01

    We present deep spectroscopy of planetary nebulae (PNe) that are associated with the substructures of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31). The spectra were obtained with the Optical System for Imaging and low-intermediate-Resolution Integrated Spectroscopy spectrograph on the 10.4 m Gran Telescopio Canarias. Seven targets were selected for the observations, three in the Northern Spur and four associated with the Giant Stream. The most distant target in our sample, with a rectified galactocentric distance ≥slant 100 kpc, was the first PN discovered in the outer streams of M31. The [O iii] λ4363 auroral line is well detected in the spectra of all targets, enabling electron temperature determination. Ionic abundances are derived based on the [O iii] temperatures, and elemental abundances of helium, nitrogen, oxygen, neon, sulfur, and argon are estimated. The relatively low N/O and He/H ratios, as well as abundance ratios of α-elements, indicate that our target PNe might belong to populations as old as ∼2 Gyr. Our PN sample, including the current seven and the previous three observed by Fang et al., have rather homogeneous oxygen abundances. The study of abundances and the spatial and kinematical properties of our sample leads to the tempting conclusion that their progenitors might belong to the same stellar population, which hints at a possibility that the Northern Spur and the Giant Stream have the same origin. This may be explained by the stellar orbit proposed by Merrett et al. Judging from the position and kinematics, we emphasize that M32 might be responsible for the two substructures. Deep spectroscopy of PNe in M32 will help to assess this hypothesis. Based on observations made with the Gran Telescopio Canarias, installed at the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, in the island of La Palma. These observations are associated with program No. GTC55-14B.

  12. High abundances of cyanomyoviruses in marine ecosystems demonstrate ecological relevance.

    PubMed

    Matteson, Audrey R; Rowe, Janet M; Ponsero, Alise J; Pimentel, Tiana M; Boyd, Philip W; Wilhelm, Steven W

    2013-05-01

    The distribution of cyanomyoviruses was estimated using a quantitative PCR (qPCR) approach that targeted the g20 gene as a proxy for phage. Samples were collected spatially during a > 3000 km transect through the Sargasso Sea and temporally during a gyre-constrained phytoplankton bloom within the southern Pacific Ocean. Cyanomyovirus abundances were lower in the Sargasso Sea than in the southern Pacific Ocean, ranging from 2.75 × 10(3) to 5.15 × 10(4) mL(-1) and correlating with the abundance of their potential hosts (Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus). Cyanomyovirus abundance in the southern Pacific Ocean (east of New Zealand) followed Synechococcus host populations in the system: this included a decrease in g20 gene copies (from 4.3 × 10(5) to 9.6 × 10(3) mL(-1) ) following the demise of a Synechococcus bloom. When compared with direct counts of viruses, observations suggest that the cyanomyoviruses comprised 0.5 to >25% of the total virus community. We estimated daily lysis rates of 0.2-46% of the standing stock of Synechococcus in the Pacific Ocean compared with c. < 1.0% in the Sargasso Sea. In total, our observations confirm this family of viruses is abundant in marine systems and that they are an important source of cyanobacterial mortality. © 2013 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Occupancy and abundance of wintering birds in a dynamic agricultural landscape

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Mark W.; Pearlstine, Elise V.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2011-01-01

    Assessing wildlife management action requires monitoring populations, and abundance often is the parameter monitored. Recent methodological advances have enabled estimation of mean abundance within a habitat using presence–absence or count data obtained via repeated visits to a sample of sites. These methods assume populations are closed and intuitively assume habitats within sites change little during a field season. However, many habitats are highly variable over short periods. We developed a variation of existing occupancy and abundance models that allows for extreme spatio-temporal differences in habitat, and resulting changes in wildlife abundance, among sites and among visits to a site within a field season. We conducted our study in sugarcane habitat within the Everglades Agricultural Area southeast of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. We counted wintering birds, primarily passerines, within 245 sites usually 5 times at each site during December 2006–March 2007. We estimated occupancy and mean abundance of birds in 6 vegetation states during the sugarcane harvest and allowed these parameters to vary temporally or spatially within a vegetation state. Occupancy and mean abundance of the common yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas) was affected by structure of sugarcane and uncultivated edge vegetation (occupancy=1.00 [95%CĪ=0.96–1.00] and mean abundance=7.9 [95%CĪ=3.2–19.5] in tall sugarcane with tall edge vegetation versus 0.20 [95%CĪ=0.04–0.71] and 0.22 [95%CĪ=0.04–1.2], respectively, in short sugarcane with short edge vegetation in one half of the study area). Occupancy and mean abundance of palm warblers (Dendroica palmarum) were constant (occupancy=1.00, 95%CĪ=0.69–1.00; mean abundance=18, 95%CĪ=1–270). Our model may enable wildlife managers to assess rigorously effects of future edge habitat management on avian distribution and abundance within agricultural landscapes during winter or the breeding season. The model may also help

  14. Occupancy and abundance of wintering birds in a dynamic agricultural landscape

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, M.W.; Pearlstine, E.V.; Dorazio, R.M.; Mazzotti, F.J.

    2011-01-01

    Assessing wildlife management action requires monitoring populations, and abundance often is the parameter monitored. Recent methodological advances have enabled estimation of mean abundance within a habitat using presence-absence or count data obtained via repeated visits to a sample of sites. These methods assume populations are closed and intuitively assume habitats within sites change little during a field season. However, many habitats are highly variable over short periods. We developed a variation of existing occupancy and abundance models that allows for extreme spatio-temporal differences in habitat, and resulting changes in wildlife abundance, among sites and among visits to a site within a field season. We conducted our study in sugarcane habitat within the Everglades Agricultural Area southeast of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. We counted wintering birds, primarily passerines, within 245 sites usually 5 times at each site during December 2006-March 2007. We estimated occupancy and mean abundance of birds in 6 vegetation states during the sugarcane harvest and allowed these parameters to vary temporally or spatially within a vegetation state. Occupancy and mean abundance of the common yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas) was affected by structure of sugarcane and uncultivated edge vegetation (occupancy = 1.00 [95%C?? = 0.96-1.00] and mean abundance = 7.9 [95%C?? = 3.2-19.5] in tall sugarcane with tall edge vegetation versus 0.20 [95%C?? = 0.04-0.71] and 0.22 [95%C?? = 0.04-1.2], respectively, in short sugarcane with short edge vegetation in one half of the study area). Occupancy and mean abundance of palm warblers (Dendroica palmarum) were constant (occupancy = 1.00, 95%C?? = 0.69-1.00; mean abundance = 18, 95%C?? = 1-270). Our model may enable wildlife managers to assess rigorously effects of future edge habitat management on avian distribution and abundance within agricultural landscapes during winter or the breeding season. The model may also help

  15. A preliminary assessment of mouflon abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hess, Steven C.; Kawakami, Ben; Okita, David; Medeiros, Keola

    2006-01-01

    Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) recently acquired the 115,653 acre Kahuku Ranch unit adjacent to the existing Mauna Loa section of HAVO. Kahuku contains numerous exceptional natural resources including many federally listed threatened and endangered species. An apparently large and growing population of alien mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), however, threatens sensitive native plants and forest bird habitats. Population composition and abundance estimates were urgently needed to determine the magnitude of resources required to manage this species and justify costs. We surveyed 32,433 acres from helicopter over 2 days in November 2004 during breeding to determine the abundance and population structure. We estimated that there were more than 2,586 ? 705 (90% CI) mouflon at Kahuku. Overall, group sizes averaged 7.8 and the sex ratio was 1:2.4 rams:ewes, but approximately 44% of the population was concentrated in forested areas near ranching operations where group sizes averaged >15 and the sex ratio was 1:3.9 rams:ewes. The remaining 56% of the population occurred widely dispersed in subalpine shrubland and barren lava flows. Abundance estimates are likely to be conservative because they were not adjusted for detection probability. Ground-based surveys of lambs suggest upper biological limit to annual population increase of 33.1% under existing environmental conditions. Historical information used to calculate population trends indicated the apparent rate of population increase to be 21.1%. In the absence of removals, the population increment for 2004-2005, would be more than 546-856, and the population doubling time with these growth rates is 3-4 years.

  16. Abundances in Eight M31 Planetary Nebulae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hensley, Kerry G.; Kwitter, Karen B.; Corradi, Romano; Galera-Rosillo, R.; Balick, Bruce; Henry, Richard B. C.

    2014-06-01

    As part of a continuing project using planetary nebulae (PNe) to study the chemical evolution and formation history of M31 (see accompanying poster by Balick et al.), we obtained spectra of eight PNe in the fall of 2013 with the OSIRIS spectrograph on the GTC. All of these PNe are located outside M31’s inner disk and bulge. Spectral coverage extended from 3700-7800Å with a resolution of ~6 Å. Especially important in abundance determinations is the detection of the weak, temperature-sensitive auroral line of [O III], at 4363Å, which is often contaminated by Hg I 4358Å from streetlights; the remoteness of the GTC eliminated this difficulty. We reduced and measured the spectra using IRAF, and derived nebular diagnostics and abundances with ELSA, our in-house five-level-atom program. Here we report the chemical abundances determined from these spectra. The bottom line is that the oxygen abundances in these PNe are all within a factor of 2-3 of the solar value, (as are all the other M31 PNe our team has previously measured) despite the significant range of galactocentric distance. Future work will use these abundances to constrain models of the central star to estimate progenitor masses and ages. In particular we will use the results to investigate the hypothesis that these PNe might represent a population related to the encounter between M31 and M33 ~3 Gy ago. We gratefully acknowledge support from Williams College.

  17. RELATIVE ABUNDANCE MEASUREMENTS IN PLUMES AND INTERPLUMES

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Guennou, C.; Hahn, M.; Savin, D. W., E-mail: cguennou@iac.es

    2015-07-10

    We present measurements of relative elemental abundances in plumes and interplumes. Plumes are bright, narrow structures in coronal holes that extend along open magnetic field lines far out into the corona. Previous work has found that in some coronal structures the abundances of elements with a low first ionization potential (FIP) <10 eV are enhanced relative to their photospheric abundances. This coronal-to-photospheric abundance ratio, commonly called the FIP bias, is typically 1 for elements with a high-FIP (>10 eV). We have used Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer observations made on 2007 March 13 and 14 over a ≈24 hr period tomore » characterize abundance variations in plumes and interplumes. To assess their elemental composition, we used a differential emission measure analysis, which accounts for the thermal structure of the observed plasma. We used lines from ions of iron, silicon, and sulfur. From these we estimated the ratio of the iron and silicon FIP bias relative to that for sulfur. From the results, we have created FIP-bias-ratio maps. We find that the FIP-bias ratio is sometimes higher in plumes than in interplumes and that this enhancement can be time dependent. These results may help to identify whether plumes or interplumes contribute to the fast solar wind observed in situ and may also provide constraints on the formation and heating mechanisms of plumes.« less

  18. Behavior of Abundances in Chemically Peculiar Dwarf and Subgiant A-Type Stars: HD 23193 and HD 170920

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kılıçoğlu, Tolgahan; Çalışkan, Şeyma; Ünal, Kübraözge

    2018-01-01

    To understand the origin of the abundance peculiarities of non-magnetic A-type stars, we present the first detailed chemical abundance analysis of a metallic line star HD 23193 (A2m) and an A-type subgiant HD 170920 (A5), which could have been a HgMn star on the main sequence. Our analysis is based on medium (R ∼ 14,000) and high (R ∼ 40,000) resolution spectroscopic data of the stars. The abundances of 18 elements are derived: C, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Zn, Sr, Y, and Ba. The masses of HD 23193 and HD 170920 are estimated from evolutionary tracks as 2.3 ± 0.1 M ⊙ and 2.9 ± 0.1 M ⊙. The ages are found to be 635 ± 33 Myr for HD 23193 and 480 ± 50 Myr for HD 170920 using isochrones. The abundance pattern of HD 23193 shows deviations from solar values in the iron-peak elements and indicates remarkable overabundances of Sr (1.16), Y (1.03), and Ba (1.24) with respect to the solar abundances. We compare the derived abundances of this moderately rotating (v\\sin i =37.5 km s‑1) Am star to the theoretical chemical evolution models including rotational mixing. The theoretically predicted abundances resemble our derived abundance pattern, except for a few elements (Si and Cr). For HD 170920, we find nearly solar abundances, except for C (‑0.43), S (0.16), Ti (0.15), Ni (0.16), Zn (0.41), Y (0.57), and Ba (0.97). Its low rotational velocity (v\\sin i=14.5 km s‑1), reduced carbon abundance, and enhanced heavy element abundances suggest that the star is most likely an evolved HgMn star. Based on observations made at the TÜBITAK National Observatory (Program ID 14BRTT150–671), and the Ankara University Observatory, Turkey.

  19. Determination of lunar ilmentite abundances from remotely sensed data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, J. R.; Larson, S. M.; Singer, Robert B.

    1990-01-01

    The mapping of ilmenite on the surface of the moon is a necessary precursor to the investigation of prospective lunar base sites. Telescopic observations of the moon using a variety of narrow bandpass optical interference filters are being performed as a preliminary means of achieving this goal. Specifically, ratios of images obtained using filters centered at 0.40 and 0.56 microns provide quantitative estimates of TiO2 abundances. Analysis of preliminary distribution maps of TiO2 concentrations allows identification of specific high-Ti areas. Investigations of these areas using slit spectra in the range 0.03 to 0.85 microns are underway to search for discrete spectral signatures attributable to ilmenite.

  20. TEA: A Code Calculating Thermochemical Equilibrium Abundances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blecic, Jasmina; Harrington, Joseph; Bowman, M. Oliver

    2016-07-01

    We present an open-source Thermochemical Equilibrium Abundances (TEA) code that calculates the abundances of gaseous molecular species. The code is based on the methodology of White et al. and Eriksson. It applies Gibbs free-energy minimization using an iterative, Lagrangian optimization scheme. Given elemental abundances, TEA calculates molecular abundances for a particular temperature and pressure or a list of temperature-pressure pairs. We tested the code against the method of Burrows & Sharp, the free thermochemical equilibrium code Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA), and the example given by Burrows & Sharp. Using their thermodynamic data, TEA reproduces their final abundances, but with higher precision. We also applied the TEA abundance calculations to models of several hot-Jupiter exoplanets, producing expected results. TEA is written in Python in a modular format. There is a start guide, a user manual, and a code document in addition to this theory paper. TEA is available under a reproducible-research, open-source license via https://github.com/dzesmin/TEA.

  1. Elemental gas-phase abundances of intermediate redshift type Ia supernova star-forming host galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Raya, M. E.; Galbany, L.; López-Sánchez, Á. R.; Mollá, M.; González-Gaitán, S.; Vílchez, J. M.; Carnero, A.

    2018-05-01

    The maximum luminosity of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depends on the oxygen abundance of the regions of the host galaxies, where they explode. This metallicity dependence reduces the dispersion in the Hubble diagram (HD) when included with the traditional two-parameter calibration of SN Ia light-curve parameters and absolute magnitude. In this work, we use empirical calibrations to carefully estimate the oxygen abundance of galaxies hosting SNe Ia from the SDSS-II/SN (Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II Supernova) survey at intermediate redshift by measuring their emission-line intensities. We also derive electronic temperature with the direct method for a small fraction of objects for consistency. We find a trend of decreasing oxygen abundance with increasing redshift for the most massive galaxies. Moreover, we study the dependence of the HD residuals (HR) with galaxy oxygen abundance obtaining a correlation in line with those found in other works. In particular, the HR versus oxygen abundance shows a slope of -0.186 ± 0.123 mag dex-1 (1.52σ) in good agreement with theoretical expectations. This implies smaller distance modulii after corrections for SNe Ia in metal-rich galaxies. Based on our previous results on local SNe Ia, we propose this dependence to be due to the lower luminosity of the SNe Ia produced in more metal-rich environments.

  2. The Roles of Flares and Shocks in determining SEP Abundances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, H. V.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C. M. S.; vonRosenvinge, T. T.

    2007-01-01

    We examine solar energetic particle (SEP) event-averaged abundances of Fe relative to O and intensity versus time profiles at energies above 25 MeV/nucleon using the SIS instrument on ACE. These data are compared with solar wind conditions during each event and with estimates of the strength of the associated shock based on average travel times to 1 AU. We find that the majority of events with an Fe to 0 abundance ratio greater than two times the average 5-12 MeV/nuc value for large SEP events (0.134) occur in the western hemisphere. Furthermore, in most of these Fe-rich events the profiles peak within 12 hours of the associated flare, suggesting that some of the observed interplanetary particles are accelerated in these flares. The vast majority of events with Fe/O below 0.134 are influenced by interplanetary shock acceleration. We suggest that variations in elemental composition in SEP events mainly arise from the combination of flare particles and shock acceleration of these particles and/or the ambient medium.

  3. Study of biological communities subject to imperfect detection: Bias and precision of community N-mixture abundance models in small-sample situations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Kery, Marc; Royle, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Community N-mixture abundance models for replicated counts provide a powerful and novel framework for drawing inferences related to species abundance within communities subject to imperfect detection. To assess the performance of these models, and to compare them to related community occupancy models in situations with marginal information, we used simulation to examine the effects of mean abundance (λ¯: 0.1, 0.5, 1, 5), detection probability (p¯: 0.1, 0.2, 0.5), and number of sampling sites (n site : 10, 20, 40) and visits (n visit : 2, 3, 4) on the bias and precision of species-level parameters (mean abundance and covariate effect) and a community-level parameter (species richness). Bias and imprecision of estimates decreased when any of the four variables (λ¯, p¯, n site , n visit ) increased. Detection probability p¯ was most important for the estimates of mean abundance, while λ¯ was most influential for covariate effect and species richness estimates. For all parameters, increasing n site was more beneficial than increasing n visit . Minimal conditions for obtaining adequate performance of community abundance models were n site  ≥ 20, p¯ ≥ 0.2, and λ¯ ≥ 0.5. At lower abundance, the performance of community abundance and community occupancy models as species richness estimators were comparable. We then used additive partitioning analysis to reveal that raw species counts can overestimate β diversity both of species richness and the Shannon index, while community abundance models yielded better estimates. Community N-mixture abundance models thus have great potential for use with community ecology or conservation applications provided that replicated counts are available.

  4. Variation in abundance of Pacific Blue Mussel (Mytilus trossulus) in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, 2006-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodkin, James L.; Coletti, Heather A.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Monson, Daniel H.; Esler, Daniel; Dean, Thomas A.

    2018-01-01

    Mussels are conspicuous and ecologically important components of nearshore marine communities around the globe. Pacific blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus) are common residents of intertidal habitats in protected waters of the North Pacific, serving as a conduit of primary production to a wide range of nearshore consumers including predatory invertebrates, sea ducks, shorebirds, sea otters, humans, and other terrestrial mammals. We monitored seven metrics of intertidal Pacific blue mussel abundance at five sites in each of three regions across the northern Gulf of Alaska: Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai) (2006-2015), Kenai Fjords National Park (Kenai Fjords) (2008-2015) and western Prince William Sound (WPWS) (2007-2015). Metrics included estimates of: % cover at two tide heights in randomly selected rocky intertidal habitat; and in selected mussel beds estimates of: the density of large mussels (≥ 20 mm); density of all mussels > 2 mm estimated from cores extracted from those mussel beds; bed size; and total abundance of large and all mussels, i.e. the product of density and bed size. We evaluated whether these measures of mussel abundance differed among sites or regions, whether mussel abundance varied over time, and whether temporal patterns in abundance were site specific, or synchronous at regional or Gulf-wide spatial scales. We found that, for all metrics, mussel abundance varied on a site-by-site basis. After accounting for site differences, we found similar temporal patterns in several measures of abundance (both % cover metrics, large mussel density, large mussel abundance, and mussel abundance estimated from cores), in which abundance was initially high, declined significantly over several years, and subsequently recovered. Averaged across all sites, we documented declines of 84% in large mussel abundance through 2013 with recovery to 41% of initial abundance by 2015. These findings suggest that factors operating across the northern Gulf of

  5. Climate and local abundance in freshwater fishes

    PubMed Central

    Knouft, Jason H.; Anthony, Melissa M.

    2016-01-01

    Identifying factors regulating variation in numbers of individuals among populations across a species' distribution is a fundamental goal in ecology. A common prediction, often referred to as the abundant-centre hypothesis, suggests that abundance is highest near the centre of a species' range. However, because of the primary focus on the geographical position of a population, this framework provides little insight into the environmental factors regulating local abundance. While range-wide variation in population abundance associated with environmental conditions has been investigated in terrestrial species, the relationship between climate and local abundance in freshwater taxa across species' distributions is not well understood. We used GIS-based temperature and precipitation data to determine the relationships between climatic conditions and range-wide variation in local abundance for 19 species of North American freshwater fishes. Climate predicted a portion of the variation in local abundance among populations for 18 species. In addition, the relationship between climatic conditions and local abundance varied among species, which is expected as lineages partition the environment across geographical space. The influence of local habitat quality on species persistence is well documented; however, our results also indicate the importance of climate in regulating population sizes across a species geographical range, even in aquatic taxa. PMID:27429769

  6. Spring evolution of Pseudocalanus spp. abundance on Georges Bank based on molecular discrimination of P. moultoni and P. newmani1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucklin, Ann; Guarnieri, Maria; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.; Sean Hill, R.

    The planktonic copepod sibling species Pseudocalanus moultoni and P. newmani (Crustacea, Copepoda) are abundant in waters over Georges Bank from late winter until mid-summer and are thought to reproduce throughout this period. The two species cannot be reliably distinguished using morphological characters, but are readily identified and distinguished by simple, rapid, and inexpensive molecular protocols based on sequence variation of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). DNA sequence variation of a portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) confirmed the presence of P. moultoni and P. newmani on Georges Bank; the mtCOI sequences were used to design species-specific oligonucleotide primers for use in a competitive multiplexed species-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Species-specific PCR was used to determine the relative abundances of the two species in sub-samples of zooplankton collections from US GLOBEC Georges Bank Study Broadscale Surveys from February to June, 1997. Based on monthly visualizations, we inferred the spring evolution of the two species' distributions and abundances on Georges Bank. Both species' overall abundances increased from February to May or June: maximum abundance of P. moultoni was 38,061 m -2 in surface waters on the crest of Georges Bank in June; maximum abundance of P. newmani was 13,854 m -2 in subsurface waters on the Northeast Peak in April. The Peak in distribution of P. moultoni shifted from Georges Basin in April, to the northern edge of the Bank in May, to the center of the Bank in June. In contrast, P. newmani was more abundant to the south and east of the Bank. Beginning in April, P. newmani occurred on the Bank but was less abundant and less widely-distributed than P. moultoni; P. newmani abundance peaked in May and declined somewhat in June. Females of the species differed in their patterns of distribution and abundance, with P. moultoni always the more abundant species on the crest of the Bank. The spring

  7. The Primordial Deuterium Abundance of the Most Metal-poor Damped Lyman-α System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooke, Ryan J.; Pettini, Max; Nollett, Kenneth M.; Jorgenson, Regina

    2016-10-01

    We report the discovery and analysis of the most metal-poor damped Lyα (DLA) system currently known, which also displays the Lyman series absorption lines of neutral deuterium. The average [O/H] abundance of this system is [O/H] = -2.804 ± 0.015, which includes an absorption component with [O/H] = -3.07 ± 0.03. Despite the unfortunate blending of many weak D I absorption lines, we report a precise measurement of the deuterium abundance of this system. Using the six highest-quality and self-consistently analyzed measures of D/H in DLAs, we report tentative evidence for a subtle decrease of D/H with increasing metallicity. This trend must be confirmed with future high-precision D/H measurements spanning a range of metallicity. A weighted mean of these six independent measures provides our best estimate of the primordial abundance of deuterium, 105 (D/H)P = 2.547 ± 0.033 ({{log}}10 {{{(D/H)}}}{{P}}=-4.5940+/- 0.0056). We perform a series of detailed Monte Carlo calculations of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) that incorporate the latest determinations of several key nuclear reaction cross-sections, and propagate their associated uncertainty. Combining our measurement of (D/H)P with these BBN calculations yields an estimate of the cosmic baryon density, 100 ΩB,0 h 2(BBN) = 2.156 ± 0.020, if we adopt the most recent theoretical determination of the d{(p,γ )}3{He} reaction rate. This measure of ΩB,0 h 2 differs by ˜2.3σ from the Standard Model value estimated from the Planck observations of the cosmic microwave background. Using instead a d{(p,γ )}3{He} reaction rate that is based on the best available experimental cross-section data, we estimate 100 ΩB,0 h 2(BBN) = 2.260 ± 0.034, which is in somewhat better agreement with the Planck value. Forthcoming measurements of the crucial d{(p,γ )}3{He} cross-section may shed further light on this discrepancy. Based on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern

  8. A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sauer, John R.; Knutson, Melinda G.

    2004-01-01

    Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response

  9. Nucleosynthesis: Stellar and Solar Abundances and Atomic Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cowan, John J.; Lawler, James E.; Sneden, Christopher; DenHartog, E. A.; Collier, Jason; Dodge, Homer L.

    2006-01-01

    Abundance observations indicate the presence of often surprisingly large amounts of neutron capture (i.e., s- and r-process) elements in old Galactic halo and globular cluster stars. These observations provide insight into the nature of the earliest generations of stars in the Galaxy the progenitors of the halo stars responsible for neutron-capture synthesis. Comparisons of abundance trends can be used to understand the chemical evolution of the Galaxy and the nature of heavy element nucleosynthesis. In addition age determinations, based upon long-lived radioactive nuclei abundances, can now be obtained. These stellar abundance determinations depend critically upon atomic data. Improved laboratory transition probabilities have been recently obtained for a number of elements. These new gf values have been used to greatly refine the abundances of neutron-capture elemental abundances in the solar photosphere and in very metal-poor Galactic halo stars. The newly determined stellar abundances are surprisingly consistent with a (relative) Solar System r-process pattern, and are also consistent with abundance predictions expected from such neutron-capture nucleosynthesis.

  10. Measuring the expressed abundance of the three phases of water with an imaging spectrometer over melting snow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Robert O.; Painter, Thomas H.; Roberts, Dar A.; Dozier, Jeff

    2006-10-01

    From imaging spectrometer data, we simultaneously estimate the abundance of the three phases of water in an environment that includes melting snow, basing the analysis on the spectral shift in the absorption coefficient between water vapor, liquid water, and ice at 940, 980, and 1030 nm respectively. We apply a spectral fitting algorithm that measures the expressed abundance of the three phases of water to a data set acquired by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over Mount Rainier, Washington, on 14 June 1996. Precipitable water vapor varies from 1 mm over the summit of Mount Rainier to 10 mm over the lower valleys to the northwest. Equivalent path absorption of liquid water varies from 0 to 13 mm, with the zero values over rocky areas and high-elevation snow and the high values associated with liquid water held in vegetation canopies and in melting snow. Ice abundance varies from 0 to 30 mm equivalent path absorption in the snow- and glacier-covered portions of Mount Rainier. The water and ice abundances are related to the amount of liquid water and the sizes of the ice grains in the near-surface layer. Precision of the estimates, calculated over locally homogeneous areas, indicates an uncertainty of better than 1.5% for all three phases, except for liquid water in vegetation, where an optimally homogeneous site was not found. The analysis supports new strategies for hydrological research and applications as imaging spectrometers become more available.

  11. TEA: A CODE CALCULATING THERMOCHEMICAL EQUILIBRIUM ABUNDANCES

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Blecic, Jasmina; Harrington, Joseph; Bowman, M. Oliver, E-mail: jasmina@physics.ucf.edu

    2016-07-01

    We present an open-source Thermochemical Equilibrium Abundances (TEA) code that calculates the abundances of gaseous molecular species. The code is based on the methodology of White et al. and Eriksson. It applies Gibbs free-energy minimization using an iterative, Lagrangian optimization scheme. Given elemental abundances, TEA calculates molecular abundances for a particular temperature and pressure or a list of temperature–pressure pairs. We tested the code against the method of Burrows and Sharp, the free thermochemical equilibrium code Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA), and the example given by Burrows and Sharp. Using their thermodynamic data, TEA reproduces their final abundances, but withmore » higher precision. We also applied the TEA abundance calculations to models of several hot-Jupiter exoplanets, producing expected results. TEA is written in Python in a modular format. There is a start guide, a user manual, and a code document in addition to this theory paper. TEA is available under a reproducible-research, open-source license via https://github.com/dzesmin/TEA.« less

  12. Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

    Treesearch

    J. Firn; J.L. Moore; A.S. MacDougall; E.T. Borer; E.W. Seabloom; J. HilleRisLambers; S. Harpole; E.E. Cleland; C.S. Brown; J.M.H. Knops; S.M. Prober; D.A. Pyke; K.A. Farrell; J.D. Bakker; L.R. O’Halloran; P.B. Adler; S.L. Collins; C.M. D’Antonio; M.J. Crawley; E.M. Wolkovich; K.J. La Pierre; B.A. Melbourne; Y. Hautier; J.W. Morgan; A.D.B. Leakey; A.D. Kay; R.L. McCulley; K.F. Davies; C.J. Stevens; C.J. Chu

    2011-01-01

    Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at...

  13. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  14. Relative abundance and size of coastal sharks derived from commercial shark longline catch and effort data.

    PubMed

    Carlson, J K; Hale, L F; Morgan, A; Burgess, G

    2012-04-01

    In the north-west Atlantic Ocean, stock assessments conducted for some commercially harvested coastal sharks indicate declines from 64 to 80% with respect to virgin population levels. While the status of commercially important species is available, abundance trend information for other coastal shark species in the north-west Atlantic Ocean are unavailable. Using a generalized linear modelling (GLM) approach, a relative abundance index was derived from 1994 to 2009 using observer data collected in a commercial bottom longline fishery. Trends in abundance and average size were estimated for bull shark Carcharhinus leucas, spinner shark Carcharhinus brevipinna, tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier and lemon shark Negaprion brevirostris. Increases in relative abundance for all shark species ranged from 14% for C. brevipinna, 12% for C. leucas, 6% for N. brevirostris and 3% for G. cuvier. There was no significant change in the size at capture over the time period considered for all species. While the status of shark populations should not be based exclusively on abundance trend information, but ultimately on stock assessment models, results from this study provide some cause for optimism on the status of these coastal shark species. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  15. Attenuation of species abundance distributions by sampling

    PubMed Central

    Shimadzu, Hideyasu; Darnell, Ross

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying biodiversity aspects such as species presence/ absence, richness and abundance is an important challenge to answer scientific and resource management questions. In practice, biodiversity can only be assessed from biological material taken by surveys, a difficult task given limited time and resources. A type of random sampling, or often called sub-sampling, is a commonly used technique to reduce the amount of time and effort for investigating large quantities of biological samples. However, it is not immediately clear how (sub-)sampling affects the estimate of biodiversity aspects from a quantitative perspective. This paper specifies the effect of (sub-)sampling as attenuation of the species abundance distribution (SAD), and articulates how the sampling bias is induced to the SAD by random sampling. The framework presented also reveals some confusion in previous theoretical studies. PMID:26064626

  16. High chemical abundances in stripped Virgo spiral galaxies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Skillman, E. D.; Kennicutt, R. C.; Shields, G. A.

    1993-01-01

    Based on a comparison of the oxygen abundances in H 2 regions in field and Virgo cluster late type spiral galaxies, Shields, Skillman, & Kennicutt (1991) suggested that the highly stripped spiral galaxies in the Virgo cluster have systematically higher abundances than comparable field galaxies. In April 1991 and May 1992 we used the blue channel spectrograph on the MMT to obtain new observations of 30 H 2 regions in Virgo spiral galaxies. These spectra cover the wavelength range from (O II) lambda 3727 to (S II) lambda 6731. We now have observed at least 4 H II regions in 9 spiral galaxies in the Virgo cluster. Combining (O II) and (O III) line strengths, we calculate the H II region oxygen abundances based on the empirical calibration of Edmunds & Pagel (1984). These observations show: (1) The stripped, low luminosity Virgo spirals (N4689, N4571) truly have abundances characteristic of much more luminous field spirals; (2) Virgo spirals which show no evidence of stripping (N4651, N4713) have abundances comparable to field galaxies; and (3) Evidence for transition galaxies (e.g., N4254, N4321), with marginally stripped disks and marginal abundance enhancements. The new observations presented here confirm the validity of the oxygen over-abundances in the stripped Virgo spirals. Shields et al. (1991) discussed two different mechanisms for producing the higher abundances in the disks of stripped galaxies in Virgo. The first is the supression of infall of near-primordial material, the second is the suppression of radial inflow of metal-poor gas. Distinguishing between the two cases will require more observations of the Virgo cluster spirals and a better understanding of which parameters determine the variation of abundance with radius in field spirals (cf., Garnett & Shields 1987).

  17. A generalized mixed effects model of abundance for mark-resight data when sampling is without replacement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.; Burnham, K.P.; Pryde, M.A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the mark-resight method for estimating abundance when the number of marked individuals is known has become increasingly popular. By using field-readable bands that may be resighted from a distance, these techniques can be applied to many species, and are particularly useful for relatively small, closed populations. However, due to the different assumptions and general rigidity of the available estimators, researchers must often commit to a particular model without rigorous quantitative justification for model selection based on the data. Here we introduce a nonlinear logit-normal mixed effects model addressing this need for a more generalized framework. Similar to models available for mark-recapture studies, the estimator allows a wide variety of sampling conditions to be parameterized efficiently under a robust sampling design. Resighting rates may be modeled simply or with more complexity by including fixed temporal and random individual heterogeneity effects. Using information theory, the model(s) best supported by the data may be selected from the candidate models proposed. Under this generalized framework, we hope the uncertainty associated with mark-resight model selection will be reduced substantially. We compare our model to other mark-resight abundance estimators when applied to mainland New Zealand robin (Petroica australis) data recently collected in Eglinton Valley, Fiordland National Park and summarize its performance in simulation experiments.

  18. Abundance and diversity of microbial inhabitants in European spacecraft-associated clean rooms.

    PubMed

    Stieglmeier, Michaela; Rettberg, Petra; Barczyk, Simon; Bohmeier, Maria; Pukall, Rüdiger; Wirth, Reinhard; Moissl-Eichinger, Christine

    2012-06-01

    The determination of the microbial load of a spacecraft en route to interesting extraterrestrial environments is mandatory and currently based on the culturable, heat-shock-surviving portion of microbial contaminants. Our study compared these classical bioburden measurements as required by NASA's and ESA's guidelines for the microbial examination of flight hardware, with molecular analysis methods (16S rRNA gene cloning and quantitative PCR) to further develop our understanding of the diversity and abundance of the microbial communities of spacecraft-associated clean rooms. Three samplings of the Herschel Space Observatory and its surrounding clean rooms were performed in two different European facilities. Molecular analyses detected a broad diversity of microbes typically found in the human microbiome with three bacterial genera (Staphylococcus, Propionibacterium, and Brevundimonas) common to all three locations. Bioburden measurements revealed a low, but heterogeneous, abundance of spore-forming and other heat-resistant microorganisms. Total cell numbers estimated by quantitative real-time PCR were typically 3 orders of magnitude greater than those determined by viable counts, which indicates a tendency for traditional methods to underestimate the extent of clean room bioburden. Furthermore, the molecular methods allowed the detection of a much broader diversity than traditional culture-based methods.

  19. Estimation of biological nitrogen fixation by black locust in short-rotation forests using natural 15N abundance method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veste, M.; Böhm, C.; Quinckenstein, A.; Freese, D.

    2012-04-01

    The importance of short rotation forests and agroforestry systems for woody biomass production for bioenergy will increase in Central Europe within the next decades. In this context, black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) has a high growth potential especially at marginal, drought-susceptible sites such as occur in Brandenburg State (Eastern Germany). As a pioneer tree species black locust grows under a wide range of site conditions. The native range of black locust in Northern America is classified by a humid to sub-humid climate with a mean annual precipitation of 1020 to 1830 mm. In Central and Eastern Europe, this species is cultivated in a more continental climate with an annual precipitation often below 600 mm. Therefore, black locust is known to be relatively drought tolerant compared to other temperate, deciduous tree species. Because of its N2-fixation ability black locust plays generally an important role for the improvement of soil fertility. This effect is of particular interest at marginal sites in the post-mining landscapes. In order to estimate the N2-fixation potential of black locust at marginal sites leaf samples were taken from black locust trees in short rotation plantations planted between 1995 and 2007 in post-mining sites south of Cottbus (Brandenburg, NE Germany). The variation of the natural 15N abundance was measured to evaluate the biological nitrogen fixation. The nitrogen derived from the atmosphere can be calculated using a two-pool model from the quotient of the natural 15N abundances of the N2-fixing plant and the plant available soil N. Because representatively determining the plant available soil N is difficult, a non-N2-fixing reference plant growing at the same site with a similar root system and temporal N uptake pattern to the N2-fixing plant is often used. In our case we used red oak (Quercus rubra) as a reference. The average nitrogen content in the leaves of black locust ranged from 3.1% (C/N 14.8) in 15 years old trees to 3

  20. Raft and floating radio frequency identification (RFID) antenna systems for detecting and estimating abundance of PIT-tagged fish in rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fetherman, Eric R.; Avila, Brian W.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Portable radio frequency identification (RFID) PIT tag antenna systems are increasingly being used in studies examining aquatic animal movement, survival, and habitat use, and their design flexibility permits application in a wide variety of settings. We describe the construction, use, and performance of two portable floating RFID PIT tag antenna systems designed to detect fish that were unavailable for recapture using stationary antennas or electrofishing. A raft antenna system was designed to detect and locate PIT-tagged fish in relatively long (i.e., ≥10 km) river reaches, and consisted of two antennas: (1) a horizontal antenna (4 × 1.2 m) installed on the bottom of the raft and used to detect fish in shallower river reaches (<1 m), and (2) a vertical antenna (2.7 × 1.2 m) for detecting fish in deeper pools (≥1 m). Detection distances of the horizontal antenna were between 0.7 and 1.0 m, and detection probability was 0.32 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) in a field test using rocks marked with 32-mm PIT tags. Detection probability of PIT-tagged fish in the Cache la Poudre River, Colorado, using the raft antenna system, which covered 21% of the wetted area, was 0.14 ± 0.14. A shore-deployed floating antenna (14.6 × 0.6 m), which covered 100% of the wetted area, was designed for use by two operators for detecting and locating PIT-tagged fish in shorter (i.e., <2 km) river reaches. Detection distances of the shore-deployed floating antenna were between 0.7 and 0.8 m, and detection probabilities during field deployment in the St. Vrain River exceeded 0.52. The shore-deployed floating antenna was also used to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish. Results suggest that the shore-deployed floating antenna could be used as an alternative to estimating abundance using traditional sampling methods such as electrofishing.

  1. Variation in abundance of Pacific Blue Mussel (Mytilus trossulus) in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, 2006–2015

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, James L.; Coletti, Heather A.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Monson, Daniel; Esler, Daniel N.; Dean, Thomas A.

    2017-01-01

    Mussels are conspicuous and ecologically important components of nearshore marine communities around the globe. Pacific blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus) are common residents of intertidal habitats in protected waters of the North Pacific, serving as a conduit of primary production to a wide range of nearshore consumers including predatory invertebrates, sea ducks, shorebirds, sea otters, humans, and other terrestrial mammals. We monitored seven metrics of intertidal Pacific blue mussel abundance at five sites in each of three regions across the northern Gulf of Alaska: Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai) (2006–2015), Kenai Fjords National Park (Kenai Fjords) (2008–2015) and western Prince William Sound (WPWS) (2007–2015). Metrics included estimates of: % cover at two tide heights in randomly selected rocky intertidal habitat; and in selected mussel beds estimates of: the density of large mussels (≥ 20 mm); density of all mussels > 2 mm estimated from cores extracted from those mussel beds; bed size; and total abundance of large and all mussels, i.e. the product of density and bed size. We evaluated whether these measures of mussel abundance differed among sites or regions, whether mussel abundance varied over time, and whether temporal patterns in abundance were site specific, or synchronous at regional or Gulf-wide spatial scales. We found that, for all metrics, mussel abundance varied on a site-by-site basis. After accounting for site differences, we found similar temporal patterns in several measures of abundance (both % cover metrics, large mussel density, large mussel abundance, and mussel abundance estimated from cores), in which abundance was initially high, declined significantly over several years, and subsequently recovered. Averaged across all sites, we documented declines of 84% in large mussel abundance through 2013 with recovery to 41% of initial abundance by 2015. These findings suggest that factors operating across the northern Gulf

  2. Bumble bee nest abundance, foraging distance, and host-plant reproduction: implications for management and conservation.

    PubMed

    Geib, Jennifer C; Strange, James P; Galenj, Candace

    2015-04-01

    Recent reports of global declines in pollinator species imply an urgent need to assess the abundance of native pollinators and density-dependent benefits for linked plants. In this study, we investigated (1) pollinator nest distributions and estimated colony abundances, (2) the relationship between abundances of foraging workers and the number of nests they represent, (3) pollinator foraging ranges, and (4) the relationship between pollinator abundance and plant reproduction. We examined these questions in an alpine ecosystem in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, focusing on four alpine bumble bee species (Bombus balteatus, B. flavifrons, B. bifarius, and B. sylvicola), and two host plants that differ in their degrees of pollinator specialization (Trifolium dasyphyllum and T. parryi). Using microsatellites, we found that estimated colony abundances among Bombus species ranged from ~18 to 78 colonies/0.01 km2. The long-tongued species B. balteatus was most common, especially high above treeline, but the subalpine species B. bifarius was unexpectedly abundant for this elevation range. Nests detected among sampled foragers of each species were correlated with the number of foragers caught. Foraging ranges were smaller than expected for all Bombus species, ranging from 25 to 110 m. Fruit set for the specialized plant, Trifolium parryi, was positively related to the abundance of its Bombus pollinator. In contrast, fruit set for the generalized plant, T. dasyphyllum, was related to abundance of all Bombus species. Because forager abundance was related to nest abundance of each Bombus species and was an equally effective predictor of plant fecundity, forager inventories are probably suitable for assessing the health of outcrossing plant populations. However, nest abundance, rather than forager abundance, better reflects demographic and genetic health in populations of eusocial pollinators such as bumble bees. Development of models incorporating the parameters we have measured

  3. Density and abundance of Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata in winter in the Lower Mississippi Flyway, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carroll, James M.; Krementz, David G.

    2014-01-01

    Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata is one of the least studied North American game birds, and information on snipe populations and abundance is mostly unknown. We conducted roadside surveys stratified at the township level in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV) in Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, as well as the Red River Region, and the Gulf Coastal Plain of Louisiana during winters of 2009 and 2010. We identified observer, vegetation cover, and water cover as important covariates in estimating snipe densities. We detected 2915 snipe along 814 line transects (1450 km) for 2009 and 2010 combined. We estimated snipe densities of 8.05 individuals km-2 (95% CI: 4.57-14.17) in 2009, and 2.13 individuals km-2 (95% CI: 1.47-3.08) in 2010. We used the resulting snipe density estimates within the study area to calculate abundance estimates of 1 026 431 (95% CI: 582 707-1 806 774) in 2009, and 271 590 (95% CI: 187 435-392 722) in 2010 for the LMAV. Our data indicate that a road transect survey method is effective for estimating wintering snipe density and abundance in the lower Mississippi Flyway.

  4. Balancing Score Adjusted Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lendle, Samuel David; Fireman, Bruce; van der Laan, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Adjusting for a balancing score is sufficient for bias reduction when estimating causal effects including the average treatment effect and effect among the treated. Estimators that adjust for the propensity score in a nonparametric way, such as matching on an estimate of the propensity score, can be consistent when the estimated propensity score is not consistent for the true propensity score but converges to some other balancing score. We call this property the balancing score property, and discuss a class of estimators that have this property. We introduce a targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) for a treatment-specific mean with the balancing score property that is additionally locally efficient and doubly robust. We investigate the new estimator’s performance relative to other estimators, including another TMLE, a propensity score matching estimator, an inverse probability of treatment weighted estimator, and a regression-based estimator in simulation studies. PMID:26561539

  5. Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cade, B.S.

    2011-01-01

    Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Nitrogen oxides in the arctic stratosphere: Implications for ozone abundances. Ph.D. Thesis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Slusser, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    In the high latitude winter stratosphere, NO2 sequesters chlorine compounds which are extremely efficient at destroying ozone. During the nighttime, NO2 reacts with ozone to form N2O5 which acts as a reservoir of NO2. Under heavy aerosol loading, N2O5 may react with water on aerosol surfaces to form HNO3, a reservoir more resistant to photolysis. This heterogeneous reaction results in reduced NO2 concentration when the sun returns at the end of the winter. A spectrograph system has been developed to measure scattered zenith skylight and thereby determine stratospheric NO2 slant column abundance. Conversion of the measured slant column abundance tomore » vertical column abundance requires dividing by the air mass. The air mass is the enhancement in the optical path for the scattered twilight as compared to a vertical path. Air mass values determined using a multiple scattering radiative transfer code have been compared to those derived using a Monte Carlo code and were found to agree to within 6% at a 90 deg solar zenith angle for a stratospheric absorber. Six months of NO2 vertical column abundance measured over Fairbanks during the winter 1992-93 exhibited the daylight diminished and increased as the sunlight hours lengthened. The overall seasonal behavior was similar to high-latitude measurements made in the Southern Hemisphere. The ratios of morning to evening column abundance were consistent with predictions based on gas-phase chemistry. The possible heterogeneous reaction of N2O5 on sulfate aerosols was investigated using FTIR Spectrometer measurements of HNO3 column abundance and lidar determinations of the aerosol profile. Using an estimated N2O5 column abundance and aerosol profile as input to a simple model, significant HNO3 production was expected. No increase in HNO3 column abundance was measured. From this set of data, it was not possible to determine whether significant amounts of N2O5 were converted to HNO3 by this heterogeneous reaction.« less

  7. Age group estimation in free-ranging African elephants based on acoustic cues of low-frequency rumbles

    PubMed Central

    Stoeger, Angela S.; Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Baotic, Anton

    2015-01-01

    Animal vocal signals are increasingly used to monitor wildlife populations and to obtain estimates of species occurrence and abundance. In the future, acoustic monitoring should function not only to detect animals, but also to extract detailed information about populations by discriminating sexes, age groups, social or kin groups, and potentially individuals. Here we show that it is possible to estimate age groups of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on acoustic parameters extracted from rumbles recorded under field conditions in a National Park in South Africa. Statistical models reached up to 70 % correct classification to four age groups (infants, calves, juveniles, adults) and 95 % correct classification when categorising into two groups (infants/calves lumped into one group versus adults). The models revealed that parameters representing absolute frequency values have the most discriminative power. Comparable classification results were obtained by fully automated classification of rumbles by high-dimensional features that represent the entire spectral envelope, such as MFCC (75 % correct classification) and GFCC (74 % correct classification). The reported results and methods provide the scientific foundation for a future system that could potentially automatically estimate the demography of an acoustically monitored elephant group or population. PMID:25821348

  8. Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stukes, Sherry A.; Spagnuolo, John N. Jr.

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

  9. Estimated abundance of wild burros surveyed on Bureau of Land Management Lands in 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffin, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) requires accurate estimates of the numbers of wild horses (Equus ferus caballus) and burros (Equus asinus) living on the lands it manages. For over ten years, BLM in Arizona has used the simultaneous double-observer method of recording wild burros during aerial surveys and has reported population estimates for those surveys that come from two formulations of a Lincoln-Petersen type of analysis (Graham and Bell, 1989). In this report, I provide those same two types of burro population analysis for 2014 aerial survey data from six herd management areas (HMAs) in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah. I also provide burro population estimates based on a different form of simultaneous double-observer analysis, now in widespread use for wild horse surveys that takes into account the potential effects on detection probability of sighting covariates including group size, distance, vegetative cover, and other factors (Huggins, 1989, 1991). The true number of burros present in the six areas surveyed was not known, so population estimates made with these three types of analyses cannot be directly tested for accuracy in this report. I discuss theoretical reasons why the Huggins (1989, 1991) type of analysis should provide less biased estimates of population size than the Lincoln-Petersen analyses and why estimates from all forms of double-observer analyses are likely to be lower than the true number of animals present in the surveyed areas. I note reasons why I suggest using burro observations made at all available distances in analyses, not only those within 200 meters of the flight path. For all analytical methods, small sample sizes of observed groups can be problematic, but that sample size can be increased over time for Huggins (1989, 1991) analyses by pooling observations. I note ways by which burro population estimates could be tested for accuracy when there are radio-collared animals in the population or when there are simultaneous

  10. Detecting declines in the abundance of a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) population: Understanding the accuracy, precision, and costs of our efforts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Al-Chokhachy, R.; Budy, P.; Conner, M.

    2009-01-01

    Using empirical field data for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), we evaluated the trade-off between power and sampling effort-cost using Monte Carlo simulations of commonly collected mark-recapture-resight and count data, and we estimated the power to detect changes in abundance across different time intervals. We also evaluated the effects of monitoring different components of a population and stratification methods on the precision of each method. Our results illustrate substantial variability in the relative precision, cost, and information gained from each approach. While grouping estimates by age or stage class substantially increased the precision of estimates, spatial stratification of sampling units resulted in limited increases in precision. Although mark-resight methods allowed for estimates of abundance versus indices of abundance, our results suggest snorkel surveys may be a more affordable monitoring approach across large spatial scales. Detecting a 25% decline in abundance after 5 years was not possible, regardless of technique (power = 0.80), without high sampling effort (48% of study site). Detecting a 25% decline was possible after 15 years, but still required high sampling efforts. Our results suggest detecting moderate changes in abundance of freshwater salmonids requires considerable resource and temporal commitments and highlight the difficulties of using abundance measures for monitoring bull trout populations.

  11. Exploring the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio towards Galactic young stellar objects and HII regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Areal, M. B.; Paron, S.; Celis Peña, M.; Ortega, M. E.

    2018-05-01

    Aims: Determining molecular abundance ratios is important not only for the study of Galactic chemistry, but also because they are useful to estimate physical parameters in a large variety of interstellar medium environments. One of the most important molecules for tracing the molecular gas in the interstellar medium is CO, and the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio is usually used to estimate molecular masses and densities of regions with moderate to high densities. Nowadays isotope ratios are in general indirectly derived from elemental abundances ratios. We present the first 13CO/C18O abundance ratio study performed from CO isotope observations towards a large sample of Galactic sources of different natures at different locations. Methods: To study the 13CO/C18O abundance ratio, we used 12CO J = 3 - 2 data obtained from the CO High-Resolution Survey, 13CO and C18O J = 3 - 2 data from the 13CO/C18O (J = 3 - 2) Heterodyne Inner Milky Way Plane Survey, and some complementary data extracted from the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope database. We analyzed a sample of 198 sources composed of young stellar objects (YSOs), and HII and diffuse HII regions as catalogued in the Red MSX Source Survey in 27.°5 ≤ l ≤ 46.°5 and |b|0.°5. Results: Most of the analyzed sources are located in the galactocentric distance range 4.0-6.5 kpc. We found that YSOs have, on average, lower 13CO/C18O abundance ratios than HII and diffuse HII regions. Taking into account that the gas associated with YSOs should be less affected by the radiation than in the case of the others sources, selective far-UV photodissociation of C18O is confirmed. The 13CO/C18O abundance ratios obtained in this work are systematically lower than those predicted from the known elemental abundance relations. These results will be useful in future studies of molecular gas related to YSOs and HII regions based on the observation of these isotopes.

  12. Comparison of multifrequency acoustic and in situ measurements of zooplankton abundances in Knight Inlet, British Columbia.

    PubMed

    Trevorrow, Mark V; Mackas, David L; Benfield, Mark C

    2005-06-01

    An investigation of midwater zooplankton aggregations in a coastal fjord was conducted in November 2002. This study focused on quantitative comparisons between a calibrated, three-frequency (38, 120, and 200 kHz) vessel-based echo-sounder, a multinet towed zooplankton sampler (BIONESS), and a high-resolution underwater camera (ZOOVIS). Daytime layers of euphausiids and amphipods near 70-90-m depth were observed in lower parts of the inlet, especially concentrated by tidal flows around a sill. Quantitative backscatter measurements of euphausiids and amphipods, combined with in situ size and abundance estimates, and using an assumed tilt-angle distribution, were in agreement with averaged fluid-cylinder scattering models produced by Stanton and Chu [ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 793-807, (2000)]. Acoustic measurements of physonect siphonophores in the upper inlet were found to have a strong 38-kHz scattering strength, in agreement with a damped bubble scattering model using a diameter of 0.4 mm. In relatively dense euphausiid layers, ZOOVIS abundance estimates were found to be a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the acoustic estimates, potentially due to deviations from assumed euphausiid orientation. Nocturnal near-surface euphausiid scattering exhibited a strong (15 dB) and rapid (seconds) sensitivity to vessel lights, interpreted as due to changing animal orientation.

  13. Comparison of multifrequency acoustic and in situ measurements of zooplankton abundances in Knight Inlet, British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trevorrow, Mark V.; Mackas, David L.; Benfield, Mark C.

    2005-06-01

    An investigation of midwater zooplankton aggregations in a coastal fjord was conducted in November 2002. This study focused on quantitative comparisons between a calibrated, three-frequency (38, 120, and 200 kHz) vessel-based echo-sounder, a multinet towed zooplankton sampler (BIONESS), and a high-resolution underwater camera (ZOOVIS). Daytime layers of euphausiids and amphipods near 70-90-m depth were observed in lower parts of the inlet, especially concentrated by tidal flows around a sill. Quantitative backscatter measurements of euphausiids and amphipods, combined with in situ size and abundance estimates, and using an assumed tilt-angle distribution, were in agreement with averaged fluid-cylinder scattering models produced by Stanton and Chu [ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 793-807, (2000)]. Acoustic measurements of physonect siphonophores in the upper inlet were found to have a strong 38-kHz scattering strength, in agreement with a damped bubble scattering model using a diameter of 0.4 mm. In relatively dense euphausiid layers, ZOOVIS abundance estimates were found to be a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the acoustic estimates, potentially due to deviations from assumed euphausiid orientation. Nocturnal near-surface euphausiid scattering exhibited a strong (15 dB) and rapid (seconds) sensitivity to vessel lights, interpreted as due to changing animal orientation. .

  14. Seasonal patterns of aster leafhopper (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) abundance and aster yellows phytoplasma infectivity in Wisconsin carrot fields.

    PubMed

    Frost, K E; Esker, P D; Van Haren, R; Kotolski, L; Groves, R L

    2013-06-01

    In Wisconsin, vegetable crops are threatened annually by the aster yellows phytoplasma (AYp), which is obligately transmitted by the aster leafhopper. Using a multiyear, multilocation data set, seasonal patterns of leafhopper abundance and infectivity were modeled. A seasonal aster yellows index (AYI) was deduced from the model abundance and infectivity predictions to represent the expected seasonal risk of pathogen transmission by infectious aster leafhoppers. The primary goal of this study was to identify periods of time during the growing season when crop protection practices could be targeted to reduce the risk of AYp spread. Based on abundance and infectivity, the annual exposure of the carrot crop to infectious leafhoppers varied by 16- and 70-fold, respectively. Together, this corresponded to an estimated 1,000-fold difference in exposure to infectious leafhoppers. Within a season, exposure of the crop to infectious aster leafhoppers (Macrosteles quadrilineatus Forbes), varied threefold because of abundance and ninefold because of infectivity. Periods of above average aster leafhopper abundance occurred between 11 June and 2 August and above average infectivity occurred between 27 May and 13 July. A more comprehensive description of the temporal trends of aster leafhopper abundance and infectivity provides new information defining when the aster leafhopper moves into susceptible crop fields and when they transmit the pathogen to susceptible crops.

  15. The Abundance and Distribution of Presolar Materials in Cluster IDPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Messenger, Scott; Keller, Lindsay; Nakamura-Messenger, Keiko; Ito, Motoo

    2007-01-01

    Presolar grains and remnants of interstellar organic compounds occur in a wide range of primitive solar system materials, including meteorites, interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), and comet Wild-2 samples. Among the most abundant presolar phases are silicate stardust grains and molecular cloud material. However, these materials have also been susceptible to destruction and alteration during parent body and nebular processing. In addition to their importance as direct samples of remote and ancient astrophysical environments, presolar materials thus provide a measure of how well different primitive bodies have preserved the original solar system starting materials. The matrix normalized abundances of presolar silicate grains in meteorites range from 20 ppm in Semarkona and Bishunpur to 170 ppm for Acfer 094. The lower abundances of presolar silicates in Bishunpur and Semarkona has been ascribed to the destruction of presolar silicates during aqueous processes. Presolar silicates appear to be significantly more abundant in anhydrous IDPs, possibly because these materials did not experience parent body hydrothermal alteration. Among IDPs the estimated abundances of presolar silicates vary by more than an order of magnitude, from 480 to 5500 ppm. The wide disparity in the abundances of presolar silicates of IDPs may be a consequence of the relatively small total area analyzed in those studies and the fine grain sizes of the IDPs. Alternatively, there may be a wide range in presolar silicate abundances between different IDPs. This view is supported by the observation that 15N-rich IDPs have higher presolar silicate abundances than those with isotopically normal N.

  16. ABUNDANCES OF PLANETARY NEBULAE IN THE OUTER DISK OF M31

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kwitter, Karen B.; Lehman, Emma M. M.; Balick, Bruce

    2012-07-01

    We present spectroscopic observations and chemical abundances of 16 planetary nebulae (PNe) in the outer disk of M31. The [O III] {lambda}4363 line is detected in all objects, allowing a direct measurement of the nebular temperature essential for accurate abundance determinations. Our results show that the abundances in these M31 PNe display the same correlations and general behaviors as Type II PNe in the Milky Way. We also calculate photoionization models to derive estimates of central star properties. From these we infer that our sample PNe, all near the bright-end cutoff of the planetary nebula luminosity function, originated from starsmore » near 2 M{sub Sun }. Finally, under the assumption that these PNe are located in M31's disk, we plot the oxygen abundance gradient, which appears shallower than the gradient in the Milky Way.« less

  17. Estimation for sparse vegetation information in desertification region based on Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jun-Jun; Gao, Zhi-Hai; Li, Zeng-Yuan; Wang, Hong-Yan; Pang, Yong; Sun, Bin; Li, Chang-Long; Li, Xu-Zhi; Zhang, Jiu-Xing

    2014-03-01

    In order to estimate the sparse vegetation information accurately in desertification region, taking southeast of Sunite Right Banner, Inner Mongolia, as the test site and Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image as the main data, sparse vegetation coverage and biomass were retrieved based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), combined with the field investigation data. Then the advantages and disadvantages between them were compared. Firstly, the correlation between vegetation indexes and vegetation coverage under different bands combination was analyzed, as well as the biomass. Secondly, the best bands combination was determined when the maximum correlation coefficient turned up between vegetation indexes (VI) and vegetation parameters. It showed that the maximum correlation coefficient between vegetation parameters and NDVI could reach as high as 0.7, while that of SAVI could nearly reach 0.8. The center wavelength of red band in the best bands combination for NDVI was 630nm, and that of the near infrared (NIR) band was 910 nm. Whereas, when the center wavelength was 620 and 920 nm respectively, they were the best combination for SAVI. Finally, the linear regression models were established to retrieve vegetation coverage and biomass based on Tiangong-1 VIs. R2 of all models was more than 0.5, while that of the model based on SAVI was higher than that based on NDVI, especially, the R2 of vegetation coverage retrieve model based on SAVI was as high as 0.59. By intersection validation, the standard errors RMSE based on SAVI models were lower than that of the model based on NDVI. The results showed that the abundant spectral information of Tiangong-1 hyperspectral image can reflect the actual vegetaion condition effectively, and SAVI can estimate the sparse vegetation information more accurately than NDVI in desertification region.

  18. Stellar Oxygen Abundances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Jeremy

    1994-04-01

    . [1989, ARAA, 27, 279], persists despite the addition of more O data and may betray the occurrence of a hiatus in star formation between the end of halo formation and the beginning of star formation in the disk. It is noted that the slope of the [O/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relation for [Fe/H] >/= -1 depends on the statistical regression utilized. Hence, alleged "observed" [O/H] - age relations, which do not use truly observed O abundances (but, rather, adopt O abundances based on Fe abundances), should be regarded with caution. Systematic effects on O abundances derived from the 6300A [O I] and 7774A O I lines are considered next. While our Solar observations confirm the disagreement between the observed 7774A O I equivalent widths and LTE model calculations at low microns, we stress that Solar O abundance determinations made from flux spectra are in very good agreement with the meteoritic value. We find the 6300A [O I] equivalent width value appears to be uncertain for the Sun. Given this uncertainty, the inability of authors to reproduce each others' 6300A O abundances, and the results of recent quasi-two-stream calculations, we do not believe it can be readily claimed (as is usually done) that these abundances are more reliable than those derived from the 7774A O I triplet. In a sample of relatively metal-rich F and G dwarfs, we find no systematic difference between the 6300 and 7774A O abundances for Teff abundances are also determined for 8 open clusters or moving groups. A very clear relation between cluster age and O abundance is seen; this is in stark contrast to the lack of any relation between age and Fe abundance in the same clusters. Hence, despite possible a priori objections, O abundances may prove to be a superior chronometer (as others have suggested) in the study of Galactic chemical evolution. Somewhat surprisingly, our our [O/Fe] ratios appear to be larger for the

  19. Adverse moisture events predict seasonal abundance of Lyme disease vector ticks (Ixodes scapularis)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berger, Kathryn A.; Ginsberg, Howard S.; Dugas, Katherine D.; Hamel, Lutz H.; Mather, Thomas N.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in north temperate regions worldwide, affecting an estimated 300,000 people annually in the United States alone. The incidence of LB is correlated with human exposure to its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis). To date, attempts to model tick encounter risk based on environmental parameters have been equivocal. Previous studies have not considered (1) the differences between relative humidity (RH) in leaf litter and at weather stations, (2) the RH threshold that affects nymphal blacklegged tick survival, and (3) the time required below the threshold to induce mortality. We clarify the association between environmental moisture and tick survival by presenting a significant relationship between the total number of tick adverse moisture events (TAMEs - calculated as microclimatic periods below a RH threshold) and tick abundance each year.Methods: We used a 14-year continuous statewide tick surveillance database and corresponding weather data from Rhode Island (RI), USA, to assess the effects of TAMEs on nymphal populations of I. scapularis. These TAMEs were defined as extended periods of time (>8 h below 82% RH in leaf litter). We fit a sigmoid curve comparing weather station data to those collected by loggers placed in tick habitats to estimate RH experienced by nymphal ticks, and compiled the number of historical TAMEs during the 14-year record.Results: The total number of TAMEs in June of each year was negatively related to total seasonal nymphal tick densities, suggesting that sub-threshold humidity episodes >8 h in duration naturally lowered nymphal blacklegged tick abundance. Furthermore, TAMEs were positively related to the ratio of tick abundance early in the season when compared to late season, suggesting that lower than average tick abundance for a given year resulted from tick mortality and not from other factors.Conclusions: Our results clarify the mechanism

  20. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  1. Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

    1995-01-01

    The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

  2. Predicting the Dynamics of Protein Abundance

    PubMed Central

    Mehdi, Ahmed M.; Patrick, Ralph; Bailey, Timothy L.; Bodén, Mikael

    2014-01-01

    Protein synthesis is finely regulated across all organisms, from bacteria to humans, and its integrity underpins many important processes. Emerging evidence suggests that the dynamic range of protein abundance is greater than that observed at the transcript level. Technological breakthroughs now mean that sequencing-based measurement of mRNA levels is routine, but protocols for measuring protein abundance remain both complex and expensive. This paper introduces a Bayesian network that integrates transcriptomic and proteomic data to predict protein abundance and to model the effects of its determinants. We aim to use this model to follow a molecular response over time, from condition-specific data, in order to understand adaptation during processes such as the cell cycle. With microarray data now available for many conditions, the general utility of a protein abundance predictor is broad. Whereas most quantitative proteomics studies have focused on higher organisms, we developed a predictive model of protein abundance for both Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe to explore the latitude at the protein level. Our predictor primarily relies on mRNA level, mRNA–protein interaction, mRNA folding energy and half-life, and tRNA adaptation. The combination of key features, allowing for the low certainty and uneven coverage of experimental observations, gives comparatively minor but robust prediction accuracy. The model substantially improved the analysis of protein regulation during the cell cycle: predicted protein abundance identified twice as many cell-cycle-associated proteins as experimental mRNA levels. Predicted protein abundance was more dynamic than observed mRNA expression, agreeing with experimental protein abundance from a human cell line. We illustrate how the same model can be used to predict the folding energy of mRNA when protein abundance is available, lending credence to the emerging view that mRNA folding affects translation

  3. Predicting the dynamics of protein abundance.

    PubMed

    Mehdi, Ahmed M; Patrick, Ralph; Bailey, Timothy L; Bodén, Mikael

    2014-05-01

    Protein synthesis is finely regulated across all organisms, from bacteria to humans, and its integrity underpins many important processes. Emerging evidence suggests that the dynamic range of protein abundance is greater than that observed at the transcript level. Technological breakthroughs now mean that sequencing-based measurement of mRNA levels is routine, but protocols for measuring protein abundance remain both complex and expensive. This paper introduces a Bayesian network that integrates transcriptomic and proteomic data to predict protein abundance and to model the effects of its determinants. We aim to use this model to follow a molecular response over time, from condition-specific data, in order to understand adaptation during processes such as the cell cycle. With microarray data now available for many conditions, the general utility of a protein abundance predictor is broad. Whereas most quantitative proteomics studies have focused on higher organisms, we developed a predictive model of protein abundance for both Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe to explore the latitude at the protein level. Our predictor primarily relies on mRNA level, mRNA-protein interaction, mRNA folding energy and half-life, and tRNA adaptation. The combination of key features, allowing for the low certainty and uneven coverage of experimental observations, gives comparatively minor but robust prediction accuracy. The model substantially improved the analysis of protein regulation during the cell cycle: predicted protein abundance identified twice as many cell-cycle-associated proteins as experimental mRNA levels. Predicted protein abundance was more dynamic than observed mRNA expression, agreeing with experimental protein abundance from a human cell line. We illustrate how the same model can be used to predict the folding energy of mRNA when protein abundance is available, lending credence to the emerging view that mRNA folding affects translation efficiency

  4. Possibilities and limitations of 2DE-based analyses for identifying low-abundant tumor markers in human serum and plasma.

    PubMed

    Strohkamp, Sarah; Gemoll, Timo; Habermann, Jens K

    2016-10-01

    Hallmarks of malignancy can be monitored by protein signatures in serum or plasma. The current challenge in cancer research is the identification of clinically reliable protein biomarkers for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. A widely used and powerful technique to screen tumor markers is two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE). This review provides an overview of 2DE functionality with its advantages and drawbacks as well as a current literature overview of gel-based cancer biomarker discovery in serum/plasma. In this context, 11 of the 12 studies reviewed here identified at least one of eight classical serum or high-abundant proteins (HAPs). Expression levels of those proteins are regulated by a vast variety of different physiological, metabolic and immunological stimuli leading to a questionable application as cancer-specific markers. Misinterpretation of HAPs as tumor markers might be caused by either the experimental setup or the technical and analytical potential in gel-based serum or plasma proteomics to detect low-abundant proteins, or a combination thereof. Additionally, based on currently available technology we propose an optimized experimental workflow to allow detecting cancer-specific protein markers of low abundance in future 2DE studies. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Fish wariness is a more sensitive indicator to changes in fishing pressure than abundance, length or biomass.

    PubMed

    Goetze, Jordan S; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A; Claudet, Joachim; Langlois, Tim J; Wilson, Shaun K; Jupiter, Stacy D

    2017-06-01

    Identifying the most sensitive indicators to changes in fishing pressure is important for accurately detecting impacts. Biomass is thought to be more sensitive than abundance and length, while the wariness of fishes is emerging as a new metric. Periodically harvested closures (PHCs) that involve the opening and closing of an area to fishing are the most common form of fisheries management in the western Pacific. The opening of PHCs to fishing provides a unique opportunity to compare the sensitivity of metrics, such as abundance, length, biomass and wariness, to changes in fishing pressure. Diver-operated stereo video (stereo-DOV) provides data on fish behavior (using a proxy for wariness, minimum approach distance) simultaneous to abundance and length estimates. We assessed the impact of PHC protection and harvesting on the abundance, length, biomass, and wariness of target species using stereo-DOVs. This allowed a comparison of the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in fishing pressure across four PHCs in Fiji, where spearfishing and fish drives are common. Before PHCs were opened to fishing they consistently decreased the wariness of targeted species but were less likely to increase abundance, length, or biomass. Pulse harvesting of PHCs resulted in a rapid increase in the wariness of fishes but inconsistent impacts across the other metrics. Our results suggest that fish wariness is the most sensitive indicator of fishing pressure, followed by biomass, length, and abundance. The collection of behavioral data simultaneously with abundance, length, and biomass estimates using stereo-DOVs offers a cost-effective indicator of protection or rapid increases in fishing pressure. Stereo-DOVs can rapidly provide large amounts of behavioral data from monitoring programs historically focused on estimating abundance and length of fishes, which is not feasible with visual methods. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. CNO Abundances in Metal-Rich Environments: Infrared Space Observatory Spectroscopy of Ionized Gas in M51

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garnett, Donald R.; Edmunds, Michael G.; Henry, Richard B. C.; Pagel, Bernard E. J.; Skillman, Evan D.

    2004-12-01

    We present Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) Long Wavelength Spectrograph observations centered on the H II region CCM 10 in the spiral galaxy M51. We detect several emission lines in this spectrum, including [O I] 63 and 145 μm, [C II] 158 μm, [O III] 88 μm, and [N II] 122 μm, with a significant upper limit on [N III] 57 μm. We use these measurements to estimate abundances for C, N, and O in the interstellar medium in M51. We compare our [O III] 88 μm flux with the flux for [O III] λ5007 obtained from narrowband imaging. The derived 5007Å/88μm ratio yields an electron temperature Te=5300+/-300 K. This temperature agrees with estimates of T[O III] based on photoionization models of CCM 10 with logO/H=-3.2, an abundance that is about a factor of 2 smaller than earlier results for this object derived from photoionization modeling of the visible spectrum. A possible cause for the discrepancy is that the older photoionization models based on CLOUDY predict significantly larger optical emission-line strengths than the current version of CLOUDY at the same metallicity; models with the more recent version are more consistent with the observed spectra of M51 H II region with reduced O/H. Assuming N/O=N+2/O+2, the upper limit for [NIII]/[OIII] yields logN/O<-0.5, which is consistent with the trend of N/O versus O/H seen in other spiral galaxies. C/O is estimated from the [CII]/[OI] ratio using photodissociation region models constrained by published CO line ratios, [CI]/CO, and [OI]63μm/145μm. With these various constraints on ne and G0, the observed [CII]/[OI] intensity ratio is in good agreeement with that predicted by photodissociation region models with approximately solar abundances. We infer from this that C/O in M51 is consistent with the solar neighborhood value.

  7. Modeled distribution and abundance of a pelagic seabird reveal trends in relation to fisheries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Renner, Martin; Parrish, Julia K.; Piatt, John F.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Edwards, Ann E.; Hunt, George L.

    2013-01-01

    The northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis is one of the most visible and widespread seabirds in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. However, relatively little is known about its abundance, trends, or the factors that shape its distribution. We used a long-term pelagic dataset to model changes in fulmar at-sea distribution and abundance since the mid-1970s. We used an ensemble model, based on a weighted average of generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and random forest models to estimate the pelagic distribution and density of fulmars in the waters of the Aleutian Archipelago and Bering Sea. The most important predictor variables were colony effect, sea surface temperature, distribution of fisheries, location, and primary productivity. We calculated a time series from the ratio of observed to predicted values and found that fulmar at-sea abundance declined from the 1970s to the 2000s at a rate of 0.83% (± 0.39% SE) per annum. Interpolating fulmar densities on a spatial grid through time, we found that the center of fulmar distribution in the Bering Sea has shifted north, coinciding with a northward shift in fish catches and a warming ocean. Our study shows that fisheries are an important, but not the only factor, shaping fulmar distribution and abundance trends in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

  8. Pressure shifts and abundance gradients in the atmosphere of the DAZ white dwarf GALEX J193156.8+011745

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vennes, S.; Kawka, A.; Németh, P.

    2011-06-01

    We present a detailed model atmosphere analysis of high-dispersion and high signal-to-noise ratio spectra of the heavily polluted DAZ white dwarf GALEX J1931+0117. The spectra obtained with the Very Large Telescope (VLT)-Kueyen/UV-Visual Echelle Spectrograph show several well-resolved Si II spectral lines enabling a study of pressure effects on line profiles. We observed large Stark shifts in silicon lines in agreement with theoretical predictions and laboratory measurements. Taking into account Stark shifts in the calculation of synthetic spectra, we reduced the scatter in individual line radial velocity measurements from ˜3 to ≲1 km s-1. We present revised abundances of O, Mg, Si, Ca and Fe based on a critical review of line-broadening parameters and oscillator strengths. The new measurements are generally in agreement with our previous analysis with the exception of magnesium with a revised abundance of a factor of 2 lower than previously estimated. The magnesium, silicon and iron abundances exceed solar abundances, but the oxygen and calcium abundances are below solar. Also, we compared the observed line profiles to synthetic spectra computed with variable accretion rates and vertical abundance distributions assuming diffusive steady state. The inferred accretion rates vary from ? for calcium to 2 × 109 g s-1 for oxygen. We find that the accretion flow must be oxygen rich while being deficient in calcium relative to solar abundances. The lack of radial velocity variations between two measurement epochs suggests that GALEX J1931+0117 is probably not in a close binary and that the source of the accreted material resides in a debris disc. Based on observations made with European Southern Observatory (ESO) telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme 283.D-5060.

  9. Solar Coronal and photospheric abundances from solar energetic particle measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breneman, H.; Stone, E. C.

    1985-01-01

    Solar energetic particle (SEP) elemental abundance data from the cosmic ray subsystem (CRS) aboard the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are used to derive unfractionated coronal and photospheric abundances for elements with 3 Z or = 30. It is found that the ionic charge-to-mass ratio (Q/M) is the principal organizing parameter for the fractionation of SEPs by acceleration and propagation processes and for flare-to-flare variability, making possible a single-parameter Q/M-dependent correction to the average SEP abundances to obtain unfractionated coronal abundances. A further correction based on first ionization potential allows the determination of unfractionated photospheric abundances.

  10. Solar coronal and photospheric abundances from solar energetic particle measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breneman, H. H.; Stone, E. C.

    1985-01-01

    Solar energetic particle (SEP) elemental abundance data from the cosmic ray subsystem (CRS) aboard the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are used to derive unfractionated coronal and photospheric abundances for elements with Z = 6-30. It is found that the ionic charge-to-mass ratio (Q/M) is the principal organizing parameter for the fractionation of SEPs by acceleration and propagation processes and for flare-to-flare variability, making possible a single-parameter Q/M-dependent correction to the average SEP abundances to obtain unfractionated coronal abundances. A further correction based on first ionization potential allows the determination of unfractionated photospheric abundances.

  11. Solar coronal and photospheric abundances from solar energetic particle measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breneman, H.; Stone, E. C.

    1985-01-01

    Solar energetic particle (SEP) elemental abundance data from the Cosmic Ray Subsystem (CRS) aboard the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are used to derive unfractionated coronal and photospheric abundances for elements with 3 = or Z or = 30. The ionic charge-to-mass ratio (Q/M) is the principal organizing parameter for the fractionation of SEPs by acceleration and propagation processes and for flare-to-flare variability, making possible a single-parameter Q/M-dependent correction to the average SEP abundances to obtain unfractionated coronal abundances. A further correction based on first ionization potential allows the determination of unfractionated photospheric abundances.

  12. Adaptive Window Zero-Crossing-Based Instantaneous Frequency Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekhar, S. Chandra; Sreenivas, TV

    2004-12-01

    We address the problem of estimating instantaneous frequency (IF) of a real-valued constant amplitude time-varying sinusoid. Estimation of polynomial IF is formulated using the zero-crossings of the signal. We propose an algorithm to estimate nonpolynomial IF by local approximation using a low-order polynomial, over a short segment of the signal. This involves the choice of window length to minimize the mean square error (MSE). The optimal window length found by directly minimizing the MSE is a function of the higher-order derivatives of the IF which are not available a priori. However, an optimum solution is formulated using an adaptive window technique based on the concept of intersection of confidence intervals. The adaptive algorithm enables minimum MSE-IF (MMSE-IF) estimation without requiring a priori information about the IF. Simulation results show that the adaptive window zero-crossing-based IF estimation method is superior to fixed window methods and is also better than adaptive spectrogram and adaptive Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD)-based IF estimators for different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

  13. Abundance, distribution, and colony size estimates for Reticulitermes spp. (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) in Southern Mississippi

    Treesearch

    Ralph W. Howard; Susan C. Jones; Joe K. Mauldin; Raymond H. Beal

    1982-01-01

    A census of 24 1-ha plots indicated an average abundance per ha of 4.42 colonies of Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar) and 2.38 colonies of R. virginicus (Banks). Nearest neighbor analysis indicated the mean distance between colonies of R. Flavipes to be 22.48 M, between colonies of R. virginicus...

  14. An MCMC determination of the primordial helium abundance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D.

    2012-04-01

    Spectroscopic observations of the chemical abundances in metal-poor H II regions provide an independent method for estimating the primordial helium abundance. H II regions are described by several physical parameters such as electron density, electron temperature, and reddening, in addition to y, the ratio of helium to hydrogen. It had been customary to estimate or determine self-consistently these parameters to calculate y. Frequentist analyses of the parameter space have been shown to be successful in these parameter determinations, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have proven to be very efficient in sampling this parameter space. Nevertheless, accurate determination of the primordial helium abundance from observations of H II regions is constrained by both systematic and statistical uncertainties. In an attempt to better reduce the latter, and continue to better characterize the former, we apply MCMC methods to the large dataset recently compiled by Izotov, Thuan, & Stasińska (2007). To improve the reliability of the determination, a high quality dataset is needed. In pursuit of this, a variety of cuts are explored. The efficacy of the He I λ4026 emission line as a constraint on the solutions is first examined, revealing the introduction of systematic bias through its absence. As a clear measure of the quality of the physical solution, a χ2 analysis proves instrumental in the selection of data compatible with the theoretical model. Nearly two-thirds of the observations fall outside a standard 95% confidence level cut, which highlights the care necessary in selecting systems and warrants further investigation into potential deficiencies of the model or data. In addition, the method also allows us to exclude systems for which parameter estimations are statistical outliers. As a result, the final selected dataset gains in reliability and exhibits improved consistency. Regression to zero metallicity yields Yp = 0.2534 ± 0.0083, in broad agreement

  15. Effect of atomic parameters on determination of aluminium abundance in atmospheres of late-type stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menzhevitski, V. S.; Shimanskaya, N. N.; Shimansky, V. V.; Kudryavtsev, D. O.

    2014-04-01

    We study the effect of the photoionization cross sections for the ground state of Al I on the inferred aluminium abundance in stellar atmospheres. We match the theoretical and observed line profiles of the resonance λλ 3944.01, 3961.52 Å and subordinate λλ 6696.03, 6698.68 Å doublets in high-resolution spectra of the metal-poor solar-type stars HD22879 and HD201889. We determine the parameters of these stars from their photometric and spectroscopic data. Our computations show that the profiles can be matched and a single aluminium abundance inferred simultaneously from both groups of spectral lines only with low photoionization cross sections (about 10-12 Mb). Larger cross sections (about 58-65 Mb) make such fits impossible. We therefore conclude that small photoionization cross sections should be preferred for the determination of aluminium abundances in metal-poor stars. We redetermine the aluminium abundances in the atmospheres of halo stars. The resulting abundances prove to be lower by 0.1-0.15 dex than our earlier determinations which does not affect the conclusions based on our earlier estimates. In particular, the NLTE [Al/Fe]-[Fe/H] dependence, on the whole, agrees only qualitatively with the results of theoretical predictions. Therefore further refinement of the theory of nuclear synthesis of aluminium in the process of the chemical evolution of the Galaxy remains a task of current importance.

  16. Spatial patterns in the abundance of the coastal horned lizard

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fisher, Robert N.; Suarez, Andrew V.; Case, Ted J.

    2002-01-01

    Coastal horned lizards (   Phrynosoma coronatum) have undergone severe declines in southern California and are a candidate species for state and federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. Quantitative data on their habitat use, abundance, and distribution are lacking, however. We investigated the determinants of abundance for coastal horned lizards at multiple spatial scales throughout southern California. Specifically, we estimated lizard distribution and abundance by establishing 256 pitfall trap arrays clustered within 21 sites across four counties. These arrays were sampled bimonthly for 2–3 years. At each array we measured 26 “local” site descriptors and averaged these values with other “regional” measures to determine site characteristics. Our analyses were successful at identifying factors within and among sites correlated with the presence and abundance of coastal horned lizards. These factors included the absence of the invasive Argentine ant (  Linepithema humile) (and presence of native ant species eaten by the lizards), the presence of chaparral community plants, and the presence of sandy substrates. At a regional scale the relative abundance of Argentine ants was correlated with the relative amount of developed edge around a site. There was no evidence for spatial autocorrelation, even at the scale of the arrays within sites, suggesting that the determinants of the presence or absence and abundance of horned lizard can vary over relatively small spatial scales ( hundreds of meters). Our results suggest that a gap-type approach may miss some of the fine-scale determinants of species abundance in fragmented habitats.

  17. Effects of harvesting flowers from shrubs on the persistence and abundance of wild shrub populations at multiple spatial extents.

    PubMed

    Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Bond, William J; Midgley, Guy F; Rebelo, Anthony G; Thuiller, Wilfried; Schurr, Frank M

    2011-02-01

    Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent

  18. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Treesearch

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  19. Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

    Treesearch

    Jonathan Bart; Kenneth P. Burnham; Erica H. Dunn; Charles M. Francis; C. John Ralph

    2004-01-01

    Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occurring within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also...

  20. Planetary Nebula Abundances and Morphology: Probing the Chemical Evolution of the Milky Way

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanghellini, Letizia; Guerrero, Martín Antonio; Cunha, Katia; Manchado, Arturo; Villaver, Eva

    2006-11-01

    This paper presents a homogeneous study of abundances in a sample of 79 northern Galactic planetary nebulae (PNe) whose morphological classes have been uniformly determined. Ionic abundances and plasma diagnostics were derived from selected optical line strengths in the literature, and elemental abundances were estimated with the ionization correction factor developed by Kingsbourgh & Barlow in 1994. We compare the elemental abundances to the final yields obtained from stellar evolution models of low- and intermediate-mass stars, and we confirm that most bipolar PNe have high nitrogen and helium abundance and are the likely progeny of stars with main-sequence mass greater than 3 Msolar. We derive =0.27 and discuss the implication of such a high ratio in connection with the solar neon abundance. We determine the Galactic gradients of oxygen and neon and found Δlog(O/H)/ΔR=-0.01 dex kpc-1 and Δlog(Ne/H)/ΔR=-0.01 dex kpc-1. These flat PN gradients are irreconcilable with Galactic metallicity gradients flattening with time.

  1. Estimating aboveground biomass of mariola (Parthenium incanum) from plant dimensions

    Treesearch

    Carlos Villalobos

    2007-01-01

    The distribution and abundance of plant biomass in space and time are important properties of rangeland ecosystem. Land managers and researchers require reliable shrub weight estimates to evaluate site productivity, food abundance, treatment effects, and stocking rates. Rapid, nondestructive methods are needed to estimate shrub biomass in semi-arid ecosystems. Shrub...

  2. Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

  3. Spatial abundance models and seasonal distribution for guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Flores, Celina E; Deferrari, Guillermo; Collado, Leonardo; Escobar, Julio; Schiavini, Adrián

    2018-01-01

    Spatially explicit modelling allows to estimate population abundance and predict species' distribution in relation to environmental factors. Abiotic factors are the main determinants of a herbivore´s response to environmental heterogeneity on large spatiotemporal scales. We assessed the influence of elevation, geographic location and distance to the coast on the seasonal abundance and distribution of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, by means of spatially explicit modelling. The estimated abundance was 23,690 individuals for the non-breeding season and 33,928 individuals for the breeding season. The factors influencing distribution and abundance revealed to be the elevation for the non-breeding season, and the distance to the coast and geographic location for the breeding season. The southwest of the study area presented seasonal abundance variation and the southeast and northeast presented high abundance during both seasons. The elevation would be the driving factor of guanaco distribution, as individuals move to lower areas during the non-breeding season and ascend to high areas during the breeding season. Our results confirm that part of the guanaco population performs seasonal migratory movements and that the main valleys present important wintering habitats for guanacos as well as up-hill zones during summer. This type of study would help to avoid problems of scale mismatch and achieve better results in management actions and is an example of how to assess important seasonal habitats from evaluations of abundance and distribution patterns.

  4. Spatial abundance models and seasonal distribution for guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

    PubMed Central

    Deferrari, Guillermo; Collado, Leonardo; Escobar, Julio; Schiavini, Adrián

    2018-01-01

    Spatially explicit modelling allows to estimate population abundance and predict species’ distribution in relation to environmental factors. Abiotic factors are the main determinants of a herbivore´s response to environmental heterogeneity on large spatiotemporal scales. We assessed the influence of elevation, geographic location and distance to the coast on the seasonal abundance and distribution of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in central Tierra del Fuego, by means of spatially explicit modelling. The estimated abundance was 23,690 individuals for the non-breeding season and 33,928 individuals for the breeding season. The factors influencing distribution and abundance revealed to be the elevation for the non-breeding season, and the distance to the coast and geographic location for the breeding season. The southwest of the study area presented seasonal abundance variation and the southeast and northeast presented high abundance during both seasons. The elevation would be the driving factor of guanaco distribution, as individuals move to lower areas during the non-breeding season and ascend to high areas during the breeding season. Our results confirm that part of the guanaco population performs seasonal migratory movements and that the main valleys present important wintering habitats for guanacos as well as up-hill zones during summer. This type of study would help to avoid problems of scale mismatch and achieve better results in management actions and is an example of how to assess important seasonal habitats from evaluations of abundance and distribution patterns. PMID:29782523

  5. Diel variation of larval fish abundance in the Amazon and Rio Negro.

    PubMed

    Araujo-Lima, C A; da Silva, V V; Petry, P; Oliveira, E C; Moura, S M

    2001-08-01

    Many streams and large rivers present higher ichthyoplankton densities at night. However, in some rivers this does not occur and larvae are equally abundant during the day. Larval drift diel variation is an important information for planning sampling programs for evaluating larval distribution and production. The aim of this study was to test whether the abundance of larval fish was different at either period. We tested it by comparing day and night densities of characiform, clupeiform and siluriform larvae during five years in the Amazon and one year in Rio Negro. We found that larvae of three species of characiform and larvae of siluriform were equally abundant during day and night in the Amazon. Conversely, the catch of Pellona spp. larvae was significantly higher during the day. In Rio Negro, however, larval abundance was higher during the night. These results imply that day samplings estimate adequately the abundance of these characiform and siluriform larvae in the Amazon, but not Pellona larvae. Evaluations of larved densities of Rio Negro will have to consider night sampling.

  6. [Hummingbird abundance and flowers use in a template forest from Southeast Mexico].

    PubMed

    Partida Lara, Ruth; Enríquez, Paula L; Rangel-Salazar, José Luis; Lara, Carlos; Martínez Ico, Miguel

    2012-12-01

    Hummingbird abundance varies with plant bloom phenology used for feeding. However, the information on hummingbird-flower interaction is limited for tropical mountain environments. We evaluated hummingbird abundance using mist nest and estimated monthly flowering phenology visited by hummingbirds in three different habitats (oak forest, cloud forest and bush) from January to August 2010 in Huitepec Ecological Reserve. We recorded four hummingbird species (Hylocharis leucotis, Lampornis amethystinus, Lamprolaima rhami and Eugenes fulgens), and their abundance varied among habitats (H3.8=14.8, p=0.001). Seven plant species were visited for hummingbirds and showed the highest number of flower species during dry season. Bush had the highest blossom. Fuchsia paniculata had the highest blossom period but only was visited by H. leucotis. Passiflora membranacea was the only species visited for all hummingbird species. The only positive association was E. fulgens abundance with P.a membranacea bloom (r(S)=0.93, p=0.02). Hummingbird abundance fluctuations in this study are determined for interactions with floral resources and their habitat distribution.

  7. Stellar oxygen abundances. I - A resolution to the 7774 A O I abundance discrepancy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Jeremy R.

    1993-09-01

    We investigate the discrepancy between O/Fe abundance ratios of metal-poor stars derived from the 7774 A O I triplet and O/Fe ratios determined from other oxygen lines. We propose a possible resolution to this discrepancy which also eliminates the correlation of O/Fe and T(eff) found in a recent 7774 A O I analysis. The equivalent widths of Abia & Rebolo (1989) are found to be systematically too high by 25 percent. Arguments are presented that current temperature estimates for halo stars are 150-200 K too low. Using the guidance of both model atmospheres and other empirical color-T(eff) relations, we construct new color temperature relations for metal-poor stars. These relations are tied to the temperature scale of Saxner & Hammarback (1985) for metal-rich stars. We use (b-y) and (V-K) indices to redetermine values of T(eff) for a handful of halo stars. (B-V)-T(eff) relations which do not take into account the effects of metallicity are found to be inadequate. Revised O/Fe ratios are determined using the new temperature scale. The mean abundance ratio of the reanalyzed halo dwarfs is about +0.52. There is no trend of O/Fe with Fe/H or T(eff).

  8. On the Measurement of Elemental Abundance Ratios in Inner Galaxy H II Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simpson, Janet P.; Rubin, Robert H.; Colgan, Sean W. J.; Erickson, Edwin F.; Haas, Michael R.

    2004-01-01

    Although abundance gradients in the Milky Way Galaxy certainly exist, details remain uncertain, particularly in the inner Galaxy, where stars and H II regions in the Galactic plane are obscured optically. In this paper we revisit two previously studied, inner Galaxy H II regions: G333.6-0.2 and W43. We observed three new positions in G333.6-0.2 with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory and reobserved the central position with the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer in far-infrared lines of S++, N++, N+, and O++. We also added the N+ lines at 122 and 205 microns to the suite of lines measured in W43 by Simpson et al.. The measured electron densities range from approx. 40 to over 4000 per cu cm in a single HII region, indicating that abundance analyses must consider density variations, since the critical densities of the observed lines range from 40 to 9000 per cu cm. We propose a method to handle density variations and make new estimates of the S/H and N/H abundance ratios. We find that our sulfur abundance estimates for G333.6-0.2 and W43 agree with the S/H abundance ratios expected for the gradient previously reported by Simpson et al., with the S/H values revised to be smaller owing to changes in collisional excitation cross sections. The estimated N/H, S/H, and N/S ratios are the most reliable because of their small corrections for unseen ionization states (< or approx. 10%). The estimated N/S ratios for the two sources are smaller than what would be calculated from the N/H and S/H ratios in our previous paper. If all low excitation H II regions had similar changes to their N/S ratios as a result of adding measurements of N+ to previous measurements of N++, there would be no or only a very small gradient in N/S. This is interesting because nitrogen is considered to be a secondary element and sulfur is a primary element in galactic chemical evolution calculations. We compute models of the two H II regions to estimate corrections for the other

  9. Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

    PubMed

    Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

  10. Generation, Validation, and Application of Abundance Map Reference Data for Spectral Unmixing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, McKay D.

    Reference data ("ground truth") maps traditionally have been used to assess the accuracy of imaging spectrometer classification algorithms. However, these reference data can be prohibitively expensive to produce, often do not include sub-pixel abundance estimates necessary to assess spectral unmixing algorithms, and lack published validation reports. Our research proposes methodologies to efficiently generate, validate, and apply abundance map reference data (AMRD) to airborne remote sensing scenes. We generated scene-wide AMRD for three different remote sensing scenes using our remotely sensed reference data (RSRD) technique, which spatially aggregates unmixing results from fine scale imagery (e.g., 1-m Ground Sample Distance (GSD)) to co-located coarse scale imagery (e.g., 10-m GSD or larger). We validated the accuracy of this methodology by estimating AMRD in 51 randomly-selected 10 m x 10 m plots, using seven independent methods and observers, including field surveys by two observers, imagery analysis by two observers, and RSRD using three algorithms. Results indicated statistically-significant differences between all versions of AMRD, suggesting that all forms of reference data need to be validated. Given these significant differences between the independent versions of AMRD, we proposed that the mean of all (MOA) versions of reference data for each plot and class were most likely to represent true abundances. We then compared each version of AMRD to MOA. Best case accuracy was achieved by a version of imagery analysis, which had a mean coverage area error of 2.0%, with a standard deviation of 5.6%. One of the RSRD algorithms was nearly as accurate, achieving a mean error of 3.0%, with a standard deviation of 6.3%, showing the potential of RSRD-based AMRD generation. Application of validated AMRD to specific coarse scale imagery involved three main parts: 1) spatial alignment of coarse and fine scale imagery, 2) aggregation of fine scale abundances to produce

  11. At the forefront: evidence of the applicability of using environmental DNA to quantify the abundance of fish populations in natural lentic waters with additional sampling considerations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klobucar, Stephen L.; Rodgers, Torrey W.; Budy, Phaedra

    2017-01-01

    Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has proven to be a valuable tool for detecting species in aquatic ecosystems. Within this rapidly evolving field, a promising application is the ability to obtain quantitative estimates of relative species abundance based on eDNA concentration rather than traditionally labor-intensive methods. We investigated the relationship between eDNA concentration and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) abundance in five well-studied natural lakes; additionally, we examined the effects of different temporal (e.g., season) and spatial (e.g., depth) scales on eDNA concentration. Concentrations of eDNA were linearly correlated with char population estimates ( = 0.78) and exponentially correlated with char densities ( = 0.96 by area; 0.82 by volume). Across lakes, eDNA concentrations were greater and more homogeneous in the water column during mixis; however, when stratified, eDNA concentrations were greater in the hypolimnion. Overall, our findings demonstrate that eDNA techniques can produce effective estimates of relative fish abundance in natural lakes. These findings can guide future studies to improve and expand eDNA methods while informing research and management using rapid and minimally invasive sampling.

  12. Pilot-based parametric channel estimation algorithm for DCO-OFDM-based visual light communications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Xuewen; Deng, Honggui; He, Hailang

    2017-10-01

    Due to wide modulation bandwidth in optical communication, multipath channels may be non-sparse and deteriorate communication performance heavily. Traditional compressive sensing-based channel estimation algorithm cannot be employed in this kind of situation. In this paper, we propose a practical parametric channel estimation algorithm for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM)-based visual light communication (VLC) systems based on modified zero correlation code (ZCC) pair that has the impulse-like correlation property. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm achieves better performances than existing least squares (LS)-based algorithm in both bit error ratio (BER) and frequency response estimation.

  13. Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

    PubMed

    Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2017-08-01

    Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3-month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture-recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km 2 , and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and

  14. Gauging the Helium Abundance of the Galactic Bulge RR Lyrae Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marconi, Marcella; Minniti, Dante

    2018-02-01

    We report the first estimate of the He abundance of the population of RR Lyrae stars in the Galactic bulge. This is done by comparing the recent observational data with the latest models. We use the large samples of ab-type RR Lyrae stars found by OGLE IV in the inner bulge and by the VVV survey in the outer bulge. We present the result from the new models computed by Marconi et al., showing that the minimum period for fundamental RR Lyrae pulsators depends on the He content. By comparing these models with the observations in a period versus effective temperature plane, we find that the bulk of the bulge ab-type RR Lyrae are consistent with primordial He abundance Y = 0.245, ruling out a significant He-enriched population. This work demonstrates that the He content of the bulge RR Lyrae is different from that of the bulk of the bulge population as traced by the red clump giants that appear to be significantly more He-rich. Based on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere under ESO programmes 179.B-2002 and 298.D-5048.

  15. Predicting foundation bunchgrass species abundances: Model-assisted decision-making in protected-area sagebrush steppe

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Sheley, Roger L.; Smith, Brenda S.; Hoh, Shirley; Esposito, Daniel M.; Mata-Gonzalez, Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    Foundation species are structurally dominant members of ecological communities that can stabilize ecological processes and influence resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Being common, they are often overlooked for conservation but are increasingly threatened from land use change, biological invasions, and over-exploitation. The pattern of foundation species abundances over space and time may be used to guide decision-making, particularly in protected areas for which they are iconic. We used ordinal logistic regression to identify the important environmental influences on the abundance patterns of bluebunch wheatgrass (Pseudoroegneria spicata), Thurber's needlegrass (Achnatherum thurberianum), and Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda) in protected-area sagebrush steppe. We then predicted bunchgrass abundances along gradients of topography, disturbance, and invasive annual grass abundance. We used model predictions to prioritize the landscape for implementation of a management and restoration decision-support tool. Models were fit to categorical estimates of grass cover obtained from an extensive ground-based monitoring dataset. We found that remnant stands of abundant wheatgrass and bluegrass were associated with steep north-facing slopes in higher and more remote portions of the landscape outside of recently burned areas where invasive annual grasses were less abundant. These areas represented only 25% of the landscape and were prioritized for protection efforts. Needlegrass was associated with south-facing slopes, but in low abundance and in association with invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum). Abundances of all three species were strongly negatively correlated with occurrence of another invasive annual grass, medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae). The rarity of priority bunchgrass stands underscored the extent of degradation and the need for prioritization. We found no evidence that insularity reduced invasibility; annual grass invasion represents

  16. Understanding Survival And Abundance Of Overwintering Warblers: Does Rainfall Matter?

    Treesearch

    Katie M. Dugger; John G Faaborg; Wayne J. Arendt; Keith A. Hobson

    2004-01-01

    We investigated relationships between warbler abundance and survival rates measured on a Puerto Rican wintering site and rainfall patterns measured on the wintering site and in regions where these warblers breed, as estimated using stable-isotope analysis (δD) of feathers collected from wintering birds. We banded birds using constant-effort mist netting...

  17. Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Qing; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Fleming, Eric L.; Abraham, N. Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Burkholder, James B.; Daniel, John S.; Dhomse, Sandip; Fraser, Paul J.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jackman, Charles H.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krummel, Paul B.; Montzka, Stephen A.; Morgenstern, Olaf; McCulloch, Archie; Mühle, Jens; Newman, Paul A.; Orkin, Vladimir L.; Pitari, Giovanni; Prinn, Ronald G.; Rigby, Matthew; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Tummon, Fiona; Velders, Guus J. M.; Visioni, Daniele; Weiss, Ray F.

    2017-11-01

    An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

  18. SP_Ace: a new code to derive stellar parameters and elemental abundances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boeche, C.; Grebel, E. K.

    2016-03-01

    Context. Ongoing and future massive spectroscopic surveys will collect large numbers (106-107) of stellar spectra that need to be analyzed. Highly automated software is needed to derive stellar parameters and chemical abundances from these spectra. Aims: We developed a new method of estimating the stellar parameters Teff, log g, [M/H], and elemental abundances. This method was implemented in a new code, SP_Ace (Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator). This is a highly automated code suitable for analyzing the spectra of large spectroscopic surveys with low or medium spectral resolution (R = 2000-20 000). Methods: After the astrophysical calibration of the oscillator strengths of 4643 absorption lines covering the wavelength ranges 5212-6860 Å and 8400-8924 Å, we constructed a library that contains the equivalent widths (EW) of these lines for a grid of stellar parameters. The EWs of each line are fit by a polynomial function that describes the EW of the line as a function of the stellar parameters. The coefficients of these polynomial functions are stored in a library called the "GCOG library". SP_Ace, a code written in FORTRAN95, uses the GCOG library to compute the EWs of the lines, constructs models of spectra as a function of the stellar parameters and abundances, and searches for the model that minimizes the χ2 deviation when compared to the observed spectrum. The code has been tested on synthetic and real spectra for a wide range of signal-to-noise and spectral resolutions. Results: SP_Ace derives stellar parameters such as Teff, log g, [M/H], and chemical abundances of up to ten elements for low to medium resolution spectra of FGK-type stars with precision comparable to the one usually obtained with spectra of higher resolution. Systematic errors in stellar parameters and chemical abundances are presented and identified with tests on synthetic and real spectra. Stochastic errors are automatically estimated by the code for all the parameters

  19. Stellar Oxygen Abundances.V.Abundances of Two Hyades Dwarfs Derived from the 6300 Angstroms [OI] Line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Jeremy R.; Hiltgen, Daniel D.

    1996-12-01

    We present observations of the 6300 Å [O I] spectral region in two cool Hyades dwarfs, vB 79 and vB 25. We derive a mean iron abundance, [Fe/H]˜+0.11, in good agreement with recent analyses of F and G Hyades dwarfs. The O abundance derived from spectrum synthesis, [O/H]˜+0.15, is between the values deduced by Garcia Lopez et al. (1993, ApJ, 412, 173; [O/H]=-0.05 to -0.10) and King (1993, Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Hawaii; [O/H]=+0.26), who employed the 7774 Å O I triplet in hotter Hyades dwarfs. An accounting of differences between these two 7774 Å analyses is given. Our [O I]-based determination suggests the Hyades O abundance itself is super-solar, though [O/Fe]˜0.0; however, systematic errors as large as 0.10-0.15 dex cannot be ruled out. The Hyades giants show an unexpected ˜0.23 dex O deficit relative to our dwarf value. While some suggestive evidence for non-standard nuclear processing and mixing in the Hyades giants may exist, we find it unconvincing. Rather, model atmosphere deficiencies or [O I] -region blending features that are still unrecognized by laboratory and theoretical efforts may contribute to the giant-dwarf O discrepancy. Finally, our high O abundance is marginally consistent with values claimed to provide a solution to the Hyades Li problem from standard stellar models. However, it is not clear that these models do in fact reproduce the extant Li data. Our Li abundance upper limit for vB 25 is at least 0.5 dex lower than the abundances of two tidally locked binaries of similar Teff. Standard stellar models of uniform composition and age are not able to reproduce such scatter in Li.

  20. N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

  1. Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

    PubMed

    Che-Castaldo, Christian; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Youngflesh, Casey; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Humphries, Grant; McDowall, Philip; Landrum, Laura; Holland, Marika M; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Lynch, Heather J

    2017-10-10

    Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.

  2. Combining split-beam and dual-frequency identification sonars to estimate abundance of anadromous fishes in the Roanoke River, North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hughes, Jacob B.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Riverine hydroacoustic techniques are an effective method for evaluating abundance of upstream migrating anadromous fishes. To use these methods in the Roanoke River, North Carolina, at a wide site with uneven bottom topography, we used a combination of split-beam sonar and dual-frequency identification sonar (DIDSON) deployments. We aimed a split-beam sonar horizontally to monitor midchannel and near-bottom zones continuously over the 3-month spring monitoring periods in 2010 and 2011. The DIDSON was rotated between seven cross-channel locations (using a vertical aim) and nearshore regions (using horizontal aims). Vertical deployment addressed blind spots in split-beam coverage along the bottom and provided reliable information about the cross-channel and vertical distributions of upstream migrants. Using a Bayesian framework, we modeled sonar counts within four cross-channel strata and apportioned counts by species using species proportions from boat electrofishing and gill netting. Modeled estimates (95% credible intervals [CIs]) of total upstream migrants in 2010 and 2011 were 2.5 million (95% CI, 2.4–2.6 million) and 3.6 million (95% CI, 3.4–3.9 million), respectively. Results indicated that upstream migrants are extremely shore- and bottom-oriented, suggesting nearshore DIDSON monitoring improved the accuracy and precision of our estimates. This monitoring protocol and model may be widely applicable to river systems regardless of their cross-sectional width or profile.

  3. Vapor pressure deficit predicts epiphyte abundance across an elevational gradient in a tropical montane region.

    PubMed

    Gotsch, Sybil G; Davidson, Kenneth; Murray, Jessica G; Duarte, Vanessa J; Draguljić, Danel

    2017-12-01

    Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are important ecosystems to study and preserve because of their high biodiversity and critical roles in local and regional ecosystem processes. TMCFs may be particularly affected by changes in climate because of the narrow bands of microclimate they occupy and the vulnerability of TMCF species to projected increases in cloud base heights and drought. A comprehensive understanding of the structure and function of TMCFs is lacking and difficult to attain because of variation in topography within and across TMCF sites. This causes large differences in microclimate and forest structure at both large and small scales. In this study, we estimated the abundance of the entire epiphyte community in the canopy (bryophytes, herbaceous vascular plants, woody epiphytes, and canopy dead organic matter) in six sites. In each of the sites we installed a complete canopy weather station to link epiphyte abundance to a number of microclimatic parameters. We found significant differences in epiphyte abundance across the sites; epiphyte abundance increased with elevation and leaf wetness, but decreased as vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased. Epiphyte abundance had the strongest relationship with VPD; there were differences in VPD that could not be explained by elevation alone. By measuring this proxy of canopy VPD, TMCF researchers will better understand differences in microclimate and plant community composition across TMCF sites. Incorporating such information in comparative studies will allow for more meaningful comparisons across TMCFs and will further conservation and management efforts in this ecosystem. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  4. An FPGA-Based Real-Time Maximum Likelihood 3D Position Estimation for a Continuous Crystal PET Detector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yonggang; Xiao, Yong; Cheng, Xinyi; Li, Deng; Wang, Liwei

    2016-02-01

    For the continuous crystal-based positron emission tomography (PET) detector built in our lab, a maximum likelihood algorithm adapted for implementation on a field programmable gate array (FPGA) is proposed to estimate the three-dimensional (3D) coordinate of interaction position with the single-end detected scintillation light response. The row-sum and column-sum readout scheme organizes the 64 channels of photomultiplier (PMT) into eight row signals and eight column signals to be readout for X- and Y-coordinates estimation independently. By the reference events irradiated in a known oblique angle, the probability density function (PDF) for each depth-of-interaction (DOI) segment is generated, by which the reference events in perpendicular irradiation are assigned to DOI segments for generating the PDFs for X and Y estimation in each DOI layer. Evaluated by the experimental data, the algorithm achieves an average X resolution of 1.69 mm along the central X-axis, and DOI resolution of 3.70 mm over the whole thickness (0-10 mm) of crystal. The performance improvements from 2D estimation to the 3D algorithm are also presented. Benefiting from abundant resources of FPGA and a hierarchical storage arrangement, the whole algorithm can be implemented into a middle-scale FPGA. By a parallel structure in pipelines, the 3D position estimator on the FPGA can achieve a processing throughput of 15 M events/s, which is sufficient for the requirement of real-time PET imaging.

  5. Evaluation of single and two-stage adaptive sampling designs for estimation of density and abundance of freshwater mussels in a large river

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, D.R.; Rogala, J.T.; Gray, B.R.; Zigler, S.J.; Newton, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Reliable estimates of abundance are needed to assess consequences of proposed habitat restoration and enhancement projects on freshwater mussels in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR). Although there is general guidance on sampling techniques for population assessment of freshwater mussels, the actual performance of sampling designs can depend critically on the population density and spatial distribution at the project site. To evaluate various sampling designs, we simulated sampling of populations, which varied in density and degree of spatial clustering. Because of logistics and costs of large river sampling and spatial clustering of freshwater mussels, we focused on adaptive and non-adaptive versions of single and two-stage sampling. The candidate designs performed similarly in terms of precision (CV) and probability of species detection for fixed sample size. Both CV and species detection were determined largely by density, spatial distribution and sample size. However, designs did differ in the rate that occupied quadrats were encountered. Occupied units had a higher probability of selection using adaptive designs than conventional designs. We used two measures of cost: sample size (i.e. number of quadrats) and distance travelled between the quadrats. Adaptive and two-stage designs tended to reduce distance between sampling units, and thus performed better when distance travelled was considered. Based on the comparisons, we provide general recommendations on the sampling designs for the freshwater mussels in the UMR, and presumably other large rivers.

  6. Localized Dictionaries Based Orientation Field Estimation for Latent Fingerprints.

    PubMed

    Xiao Yang; Jianjiang Feng; Jie Zhou

    2014-05-01

    Dictionary based orientation field estimation approach has shown promising performance for latent fingerprints. In this paper, we seek to exploit stronger prior knowledge of fingerprints in order to further improve the performance. Realizing that ridge orientations at different locations of fingerprints have different characteristics, we propose a localized dictionaries-based orientation field estimation algorithm, in which noisy orientation patch at a location output by a local estimation approach is replaced by real orientation patch in the local dictionary at the same location. The precondition of applying localized dictionaries is that the pose of the latent fingerprint needs to be estimated. We propose a Hough transform-based fingerprint pose estimation algorithm, in which the predictions about fingerprint pose made by all orientation patches in the latent fingerprint are accumulated. Experimental results on challenging latent fingerprint datasets show the proposed method outperforms previous ones markedly.

  7. Proposed Method for Estimating Health-Promoting Glucosinolates and Hydrolysis Products in Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) Using Relative Transcript Abundance.

    PubMed

    Becker, Talon M; Jeffery, Elizabeth H; Juvik, John A

    2017-01-18

    Due to the importance of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products in human nutrition and plant defense, optimizing the content of these compounds is a frequent breeding objective for Brassica crops. Toward this goal, we investigated the feasibility of using models built from relative transcript abundance data for the prediction of glucosinolate and hydrolysis product concentrations in broccoli. We report that predictive models explaining at least 50% of the variation for a number of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products can be built for prediction within the same season, but prediction accuracy decreased when using models built from one season's data for prediction of an opposing season. This method of phytochemical profile prediction could potentially allow for lower phytochemical phenotyping costs and larger breeding populations. This, in turn, could improve selection efficiency for phase II induction potential, a type of chemopreventive bioactivity, by allowing for the quick and relatively cheap content estimation of phytochemicals known to influence the trait.

  8. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    PubMed

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-03-16

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities' fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents.

  9. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-03-01

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities’ fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents.

  10. Chlorine Abundances in Martian Meteorites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bogard, D.D.; Garrison, D.H.; Park, J.

    2009-01-01

    Chlorine measurements made in martian surface rocks by robotic spacecraft typically give Chlorine (Cl) abundances of approximately 0.1-0.8%. In contrast, Cl abundances in martian meteorites appear lower, although data is limited, and martian nakhlites were also subjected to Cl contamination by Mars surface brines. Chlorine abundances reported by one lab for whole rock (WR) samples of Shergotty, ALH77005, and EET79001 range 108-14 ppm, whereas Cl in nakhlites range 73-1900 ppm. Measurements of Cl in various martian weathering phases of nakhlites varied 0.04-4.7% and reveal significant concentration of Cl by martian brines Martian meteorites contain much lower Chlorine than those measured in martian surface rocks and give further confirmation that Cl in these surface rocks was introduced by brines and weathering. It has been argued that Cl is twice as effective as water in lowering the melting point and promoting melting at shallower martian depths, and that significant Cl in the shergottite source region would negate any need for significant water. However, this conclusion was based on experiments that utilized Cl concentrations more analogous to martian surface rocks than to shergottite meteorites, and may not be applicable to shergottites.

  11. Financial development and oil resource abundance-growth relations: evidence from panel data.

    PubMed

    Law, Siong Hook; Moradbeigi, Maryam

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates whether financial development dampens the negative impact of oil resource abundance on economic growth. Because of substantial cross-sectional dependence in our data, which contain a core sample of 63 oil-producing countries from 1980 through 2010, we use the common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimator to account for the high degree of heterogeneity and drop the outlier countries. The empirical results reveal that oil resource abundance affects the growth rate in output contingent on the degree of development in financial markets. More developed financial markets can channel the revenues from oil into more productive activities and thus offset the negative effects of oil resource abundance on economic growth. Thus, better financial development can reverse resource curse or enhance resource blessing in oil-rich economies.

  12. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2011-01-01

    Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

  13. NEON AND CNO ABUNDANCES FOR EXTREME HELIUM STARS-A NON-LTE ANALYSIS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pandey, Gajendra; Lambert, David L., E-mail: pandey@iiap.res.in, E-mail: dll@astro.as.utexas.edu

    A non-LTE (NLTE) abundance analysis was carried out for three extreme helium stars (EHes): BD+10{sup 0} 2179, BD-9{sup 0} 4395, and LS IV+6{sup 0} 002, from their optical spectra with NLTE model atmospheres. NLTE TLUSTY model atmospheres were computed with H, He, C, N, O, and Ne treated in NLTE. Model atmosphere parameters were chosen from consideration of fits to observed He I line profiles and ionization equilibria of C and N ions. The program SYNSPEC was then used to determine the NLTE abundances for Ne as well as H, He, C, N, and O. LTE neon abundances from Nemore » I lines in the EHes: LSE 78, V1920 Cyg, HD 124448, and PV Tel, are derived from published models and an estimate of the NLTE correction applied to obtain the NLTE Ne abundance. We show that the derived abundances of these key elements, including Ne, are well matched with semi-quantitative predictions for the EHe resulting from a cold merger (i.e., no nucleosynthesis during the merger) of an He white dwarf with a C-O white dwarf.« less

  14. Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

    2014-01-01

    Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

  15. Bovine Host Genetic Variation Influences Rumen Microbial Methane Production with Best Selection Criterion for Low Methane Emitting and Efficiently Feed Converting Hosts Based on Metagenomic Gene Abundance

    PubMed Central

    Roehe, Rainer; Dewhurst, Richard J.; Duthie, Carol-Anne; Rooke, John A.; McKain, Nest; Ross, Dave W.; Hyslop, Jimmy J.; Waterhouse, Anthony; Freeman, Tom C.

    2016-01-01

    Methane produced by methanogenic archaea in ruminants contributes significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The host genetic link controlling microbial methane production is unknown and appropriate genetic selection strategies are not developed. We used sire progeny group differences to estimate the host genetic influence on rumen microbial methane production in a factorial experiment consisting of crossbred breed types and diets. Rumen metagenomic profiling was undertaken to investigate links between microbial genes and methane emissions or feed conversion efficiency. Sire progeny groups differed significantly in their methane emissions measured in respiration chambers. Ranking of the sire progeny groups based on methane emissions or relative archaeal abundance was consistent overall and within diet, suggesting that archaeal abundance in ruminal digesta is under host genetic control and can be used to genetically select animals without measuring methane directly. In the metagenomic analysis of rumen contents, we identified 3970 microbial genes of which 20 and 49 genes were significantly associated with methane emissions and feed conversion efficiency respectively. These explained 81% and 86% of the respective variation and were clustered in distinct functional gene networks. Methanogenesis genes (e.g. mcrA and fmdB) were associated with methane emissions, whilst host-microbiome cross talk genes (e.g. TSTA3 and FucI) were associated with feed conversion efficiency. These results strengthen the idea that the host animal controls its own microbiota to a significant extent and open up the implementation of effective breeding strategies using rumen microbial gene abundance as a predictor for difficult-to-measure traits on a large number of hosts. Generally, the results provide a proof of principle to use the relative abundance of microbial genes in the gastrointestinal tract of different species to predict their influence on traits e.g. human metabolism

  16. Bovine Host Genetic Variation Influences Rumen Microbial Methane Production with Best Selection Criterion for Low Methane Emitting and Efficiently Feed Converting Hosts Based on Metagenomic Gene Abundance.

    PubMed

    Roehe, Rainer; Dewhurst, Richard J; Duthie, Carol-Anne; Rooke, John A; McKain, Nest; Ross, Dave W; Hyslop, Jimmy J; Waterhouse, Anthony; Freeman, Tom C; Watson, Mick; Wallace, R John

    2016-02-01

    Methane produced by methanogenic archaea in ruminants contributes significantly to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The host genetic link controlling microbial methane production is unknown and appropriate genetic selection strategies are not developed. We used sire progeny group differences to estimate the host genetic influence on rumen microbial methane production in a factorial experiment consisting of crossbred breed types and diets. Rumen metagenomic profiling was undertaken to investigate links between microbial genes and methane emissions or feed conversion efficiency. Sire progeny groups differed significantly in their methane emissions measured in respiration chambers. Ranking of the sire progeny groups based on methane emissions or relative archaeal abundance was consistent overall and within diet, suggesting that archaeal abundance in ruminal digesta is under host genetic control and can be used to genetically select animals without measuring methane directly. In the metagenomic analysis of rumen contents, we identified 3970 microbial genes of which 20 and 49 genes were significantly associated with methane emissions and feed conversion efficiency respectively. These explained 81% and 86% of the respective variation and were clustered in distinct functional gene networks. Methanogenesis genes (e.g. mcrA and fmdB) were associated with methane emissions, whilst host-microbiome cross talk genes (e.g. TSTA3 and FucI) were associated with feed conversion efficiency. These results strengthen the idea that the host animal controls its own microbiota to a significant extent and open up the implementation of effective breeding strategies using rumen microbial gene abundance as a predictor for difficult-to-measure traits on a large number of hosts. Generally, the results provide a proof of principle to use the relative abundance of microbial genes in the gastrointestinal tract of different species to predict their influence on traits e.g. human metabolism

  17. Elemental abundances and classification of carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, D. M.; Ryan, S. G.; Rossi, S.; Beers, T. C.; Tsangarides, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    We present a detailed study of carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars, based on high-resolution spectroscopic observations of a sample of 18 stars. The stellar spectra for this sample were obtained at the 4.2 m William Herschel Telescope in 2001 and 2002, using the Utrecht Echelle Spectrograph, at a resolving power R ~ 52 000 and S/N ~ 40, covering the wavelength range λλ3700-5700 Å. The atmospheric parameters determined for this sample indicate temperatures ranging from 4750 K to 7100 K, log g from 1.5 to 4.3, and metallicities -3.0 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ -1.7. Elemental abundances for C, Na, Mg, Sc, Ti, Cr, Cu, Zn, Sr, Y, Zr, Ba, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy are determined. Abundances for an additional 109 stars were taken from the literature and combined with the data of our sample. The literature sample reveals a lack of reliable abundance estimates for species that might be associated with the r-process elements for about 67% of CEMP stars, preventing a complete understanding of this class of stars, since [Ba/Eu] ratios are used to classify them. Although eight stars in our observed sample are also found in the literature sample, Eu abundances or limits are determined for four of these stars for the first time. From the observed correlations between C, Ba, and Eu, we argue that the CEMP-r/s class has the same astronomical origin as CEMP-s stars, highlighting the need for a more complete understanding of Eu production. Tables 1, 3, 4, 8-10, A.1, and B.1-B.4 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgFull Tables 2, 5, and 7 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/548/A34

  18. Wildlife Abundance and Diversity as Indicators of Tourism Potential in Northern Botswana.

    PubMed

    Winterbach, Christiaan W; Whitesell, Carolyn; Somers, Michael J

    2015-01-01

    Wildlife tourism can provide economic incentives for conservation. Due to the abundance of wildlife and the presence of charismatic species some areas are better suited to wildlife tourism. Our first objective was to develop criteria based on wildlife abundance and diversity to evaluate tourism potential in the Northern Conservation Zone of Botswana. Secondly we wanted to quantify and compare tourism experiences in areas with high and low tourism potential. We used aerial survey data to estimate wildlife biomass and diversity to determine tourism potential, while data from ground surveys quantified the tourist experience. Areas used for High Paying Low Volume tourism had significantly higher mean wildlife biomass and wildlife diversity than the areas avoided for this type of tourism. Only 22% of the Northern Conservation Zone has intermediate to high tourism potential. The areas with high tourism potential, as determined from the aerial survey data, provided tourists with significantly better wildlife sightings (ground surveys) than the low tourism potential areas. Even Low Paying tourism may not be economically viable in concessions that lack areas with intermediate to high tourism potential. The largest part of the Northern Conservation Zone has low tourism potential, but low tourism potential is not equal to low conservation value. Alternative conservation strategies should be developed to complement the economic incentive provided by wildlife-based tourism in Botswana.

  19. Wildlife Abundance and Diversity as Indicators of Tourism Potential in Northern Botswana

    PubMed Central

    Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Whitesell, Carolyn; Somers, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    Wildlife tourism can provide economic incentives for conservation. Due to the abundance of wildlife and the presence of charismatic species some areas are better suited to wildlife tourism. Our first objective was to develop criteria based on wildlife abundance and diversity to evaluate tourism potential in the Northern Conservation Zone of Botswana. Secondly we wanted to quantify and compare tourism experiences in areas with high and low tourism potential. We used aerial survey data to estimate wildlife biomass and diversity to determine tourism potential, while data from ground surveys quantified the tourist experience. Areas used for High Paying Low Volume tourism had significantly higher mean wildlife biomass and wildlife diversity than the areas avoided for this type of tourism. Only 22% of the Northern Conservation Zone has intermediate to high tourism potential. The areas with high tourism potential, as determined from the aerial survey data, provided tourists with significantly better wildlife sightings (ground surveys) than the low tourism potential areas. Even Low Paying tourism may not be economically viable in concessions that lack areas with intermediate to high tourism potential. The largest part of the Northern Conservation Zone has low tourism potential, but low tourism potential is not equal to low conservation value. Alternative conservation strategies should be developed to complement the economic incentive provided by wildlife-based tourism in Botswana. PMID:26308859

  20. A novel SURE-based criterion for parametric PSF estimation.

    PubMed

    Xue, Feng; Blu, Thierry

    2015-02-01

    We propose an unbiased estimate of a filtered version of the mean squared error--the blur-SURE (Stein's unbiased risk estimate)--as a novel criterion for estimating an unknown point spread function (PSF) from the degraded image only. The PSF is obtained by minimizing this new objective functional over a family of Wiener processings. Based on this estimated blur kernel, we then perform nonblind deconvolution using our recently developed algorithm. The SURE-based framework is exemplified with a number of parametric PSF, involving a scaling factor that controls the blur size. A typical example of such parametrization is the Gaussian kernel. The experimental results demonstrate that minimizing the blur-SURE yields highly accurate estimates of the PSF parameters, which also result in a restoration quality that is very similar to the one obtained with the exact PSF, when plugged into our recent multi-Wiener SURE-LET deconvolution algorithm. The highly competitive results obtained outline the great potential of developing more powerful blind deconvolution algorithms based on SURE-like estimates.

  1. A Systematic Approach for Model-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

    2010-01-01

    A requirement for effective aircraft engine performance estimation is the ability to account for engine degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. This paper presents a linear point design methodology for minimizing the degradation-induced error in model-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications. The technique specifically focuses on the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown health parameters than available sensor measurements. A condition for Kalman filter-based estimation is that the number of health parameters estimated cannot exceed the number of sensed measurements. In this paper, the estimated health parameter vector will be replaced by a reduced order tuner vector whose dimension is equivalent to the sensed measurement vector. The reduced order tuner vector is systematically selected to minimize the theoretical mean squared estimation error of a maximum a posteriori estimator formulation. This paper derives theoretical estimation errors at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the estimation accuracy achieved through conventional maximum a posteriori and Kalman filter estimation approaches. Maximum a posteriori estimation results demonstrate that reduced order tuning parameter vectors can be found that approximate the accuracy of estimating all health parameters directly. Kalman filter estimation results based on the same reduced order tuning parameter vectors demonstrate that significantly improved estimation accuracy can be achieved over the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuner vector. However, additional development is necessary to fully extend the methodology to Kalman filter-based

  2. Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT.

    PubMed

    Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Clinthorne, N H; Fessler, J A; Hero, A O

    1994-01-01

    The authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. They also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, the authors discuss model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy.

  3. Energetic-particle abundances in impulsive solar flares

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reames, D. V.; Cane, H. V.; Von Rosenvinge, T. T.

    1990-01-01

    The abundances of elements and of He-3 in 90 solar electron events have been examined. It is found that the events fall into two distinct groups based upon their F/C ratio. Events in the F-rich group frequently have high He-3/He-4 ratios and are associated with type III and type V radio bursts in the parent flare. The F-poor events are associated with type IV bursts. These results on individual events support the conclusions of earlier work done with daily-averaged abundances.

  4. The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Downing, J.A.; Prairie, Y.T.; Cole, J.J.; Duarte, C.M.; Tranvik, L.J.; Striegl, Robert G.; McDowell, W.H.; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Caraco, N.F.; Melack, J.M.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2006-01-01

    One of the major impediments to the integration of lentic ecosystems into global environmental analyses has been fragmentary data on the extent and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments. We use new data sources, enhanced spatial resolution, and new analytical approaches to provide new estimates of the global abundance of surface-water bodies. A global model based on the Pareto distribution shows that the global extent of natural lakes is twice as large as previously known (304 million lakes; 4.2 million km 2 in area) and is dominated in area by millions of water bodies smaller than 1 km2. Similar analyses of impoundments based on inventories of large, engineered dams show that impounded waters cover approximately 0.26 million km2. However, construction of low-tech farm impoundments is estimated to be between 0.1 % and 6% of farm area worldwide, dependent upon precipitation, and represents >77,000 km 2 globally, at present. Overall, about 4.6 million km2 of the earth's continental "land" surface (>3%) is covered by water. These analyses underscore the importance of explicitly considering lakes, ponds, and impoundments, especially small ones, in global analyses of rates and processes. ?? 2006, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

  5. Water balance-based estimation of groundwater recharge in the Lake Chad Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babamaaji, R. A.; Lee, J.

    2012-12-01

    Lake Chad Basin (LCB) has experienced drastic changes of land cover and poor water management practices during the last 50 years. The successive droughts in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in the shortage of surface water and groundwater resources. This problem of drought and shortage of water has a devastating implication on the natural resources of the Basin with great consequence on food security, poverty reduction and quality of life of the inhabitants in the LCB. Therefore, understanding the change of land use and its characteristics must be a first step to find how such changes disturb the water cycle especially the groundwater in the LCB. The abundance of groundwater is affected by the climate change through the interaction with surface water, such as lakes and rivers, and vertical recharge through an infiltration process. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the groundwater resource requires not only reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables, but also accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Spatial variations in the land use/land cover, soil texture, topographic slope, and meteorological conditions should be accounted for in the recharge estimation. In this study, we employed a spatially distributed water balance model WetSpass to simulate a long-term average change of groundwater recharge in the LCB of Africa. WetSpass is a water balance-based model to estimate seasonal average spatial distribution of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge. The model is especially suitable for studying the effect of land use/land cover change on the water regime in the LCB. The present study describes the concept of the model and its application to the development of recharge map of the LCB.

  6. Determination of lunar ilmenite abundances from remotely sensed data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larson, Stephen M.; Johnson, Jeffrey R.; Singer, Robert B.

    1991-01-01

    The mineral ilmenite (FeTiO3) was found in abundance in lunar mare soils returned during the Apollo project. Lunar ilmenite often contains greater than 50 weight-percent titanium dioxide (TiO2), and is a primary potential resource for oxygen and other raw materials to supply future lunar bases. Chemical and spectroscopic analysis of the returned lunar soils produced an empirical function that relates the spectral reflectance ratio at 400 and 560 nm to the weight percent abundance of TiO2. This allowed mapping of the lunar TiO2 distribution using telescopic vidicon multispectral imaging from the ground; however, the time variant photometric response of the vidicon detectors produced abundance uncertainties of at least 2 to 5 percent. Since that time, solid-state charge-coupled device (CCD) detector technology capable of much improved photometric response has become available. An investigation of the lunar TiO2 distribution was carried out utilizing groundbased telescopic CCD multispectral imagery and spectroscopy. The work was approached in phases to develop optimum technique based upon initial results. The goal is to achieve the best possible TiO2 abundance maps from the ground as a precursor to lunar orbiter and robotic sample return missions, and to produce a better idea of the peak abundances of TiO2 for benefaction studies. These phases and the results are summarized.

  7. Muscle parameters estimation based on biplanar radiography.

    PubMed

    Dubois, G; Rouch, P; Bonneau, D; Gennisson, J L; Skalli, W

    2016-11-01

    The evaluation of muscle and joint forces in vivo is still a challenge. Musculo-Skeletal (musculo-skeletal) models are used to compute forces based on movement analysis. Most of them are built from a scaled-generic model based on cadaver measurements, which provides a low level of personalization, or from Magnetic Resonance Images, which provide a personalized model in lying position. This study proposed an original two steps method to access a subject-specific musculo-skeletal model in 30 min, which is based solely on biplanar X-Rays. First, the subject-specific 3D geometry of bones and skin envelopes were reconstructed from biplanar X-Rays radiography. Then, 2200 corresponding control points were identified between a reference model and the subject-specific X-Rays model. Finally, the shape of 21 lower limb muscles was estimated using a non-linear transformation between the control points in order to fit the muscle shape of the reference model to the X-Rays model. Twelfth musculo-skeletal models were reconstructed and compared to their reference. The muscle volume was not accurately estimated with a standard deviation (SD) ranging from 10 to 68%. However, this method provided an accurate estimation the muscle line of action with a SD of the length difference lower than 2% and a positioning error lower than 20 mm. The moment arm was also well estimated with SD lower than 15% for most muscle, which was significantly better than scaled-generic model for most muscle. This method open the way to a quick modeling method for gait analysis based on biplanar radiography.

  8. Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

    2003-12-01

    The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

  9. Estimating the abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at variable elevations using an aircraft: how high can they fly?

    PubMed Central

    Damialis, Athanasios; Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Konoglou, Maria; Akritidis, Ioannis; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Gioulekas, Dimitrios

    2017-01-01

    Airborne pollen and fungal spores are monitored mainly in highly populated, urban environments, for allergy prevention purposes. However, their sources can frequently be located outside cities’ fringes with more vegetation. So as to shed light to this paradox, we investigated the diversity and abundance of airborne pollen and fungal spores at various environmental regimes. We monitored pollen and spores using an aircraft and a car, at elevations from sea level to 2,000 m above ground, in the region of Thesssaloniki, Greece. We found a total of 24 pollen types and more than 15 spore types. Pollen and spores were detected throughout the elevational transect. Lower elevations exhibited higher pollen concentrations in only half of plant taxa and higher fungal spore concentrations in only Ustilago. Pinaceae and Quercus pollen were the most abundant recorded by airplane (>54% of the total). Poaceae pollen were the most abundant via car measurements (>77% of the total). Cladosporium and Alternaria spores were the most abundant in all cases (aircraft: >69% and >17%, car: >45% and >27%, respectively). We conclude that pollen and fungal spores can be diverse and abundant even outside the main source area, evidently because of long-distance transport incidents. PMID:28300143

  10. Why joints are more abundant than faults. A conceptual model to estimate their ratio in layered carbonate rocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caputo, Riccardo

    2010-09-01

    It is a commonplace field observation that extension fractures are more abundant than shear fractures. The questions of how much more abundant, and why, are posed in this paper and qualitative estimates of their ratio within a rock volume are made on the basis of field observations and mechanical considerations. A conceptual model is also proposed to explain the common range of ratios between extension and shear fractures, here called the j/ f ratio. The model considers three major genetic stress components originated from overburden, pore-fluid pressure and tectonics and assumes that some of the remote genetic stress components vary with time ( i.e. stress-rates are included). Other important assumptions of the numerical model are that: i) the strength of the sub-volumes is randomly attributed following a Weibull probabilistic distribution, ii) all fractures heal after a given time, thus simulating the cementation process, and therefore iii) both extensional jointing and shear fracturing could be recurrent events within the same sub-volume. As a direct consequence of these assumptions, the stress tensor at any point varies continuously in time and these variations are caused by both remote stresses and local stress drops associated with in-situ and neighbouring fracturing events. The conceptual model is implemented in a computer program to simulate layered carbonate rock bodies undergoing brittle deformation. The numerical results are obtained by varying the principal parameters, like depth ( viz. confining pressure), tensile strength, pore-fluid pressure and shape of the Weibull distribution function, in a wide range of values, therefore simulating a broad spectrum of possible mechanical and lithological conditions. The quantitative estimates of the j/ f ratio confirm the general predominance of extensional failure events during brittle deformation in shallow crustal rocks and provide useful insights for better understanding the role played by the different

  11. Estimating monthly temperature using point based interpolation techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saaban, Azizan; Mah Hashim, Noridayu; Murat, Rusdi Indra Zuhdi

    2013-04-01

    This paper discusses the use of point based interpolation to estimate the value of temperature at an unallocated meteorology stations in Peninsular Malaysia using data of year 2010 collected from the Malaysian Meteorology Department. Two point based interpolation methods which are Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) are considered. The accuracy of the methods is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that RBF with thin plate spline model is suitable to be used as temperature estimator for the months of January and December, while RBF with multiquadric model is suitable to estimate the temperature for the rest of the months.

  12. NEON AND OXYGEN ABUNDANCES AND ABUNDANCE RATIO IN THE SOLAR CORONA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Landi, E.; Testa, P., E-mail: elandi@umich.edu

    2015-02-20

    In this work we determine the Ne/O abundance ratio from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiation (SUMER) off-disk observations of quiescent streamers over the 1996-2008 period. We find that the Ne/O ratio is approximately constant over solar cycle 23 from 1996 to 2005, at a value of 0.099 ± 0.017; this value is lower than the transition region determinations from the quiet Sun used to infer the neon photospheric abundance from the oxygen photospheric abundance. Also, the Ne/O ratio we determined from SUMER is in excellent agreement with in situ determinations from ACE/SWICS. In 2005-2008, the Ne/O abundancemore » ratio increased with time and reached 0.25 ± 0.05, following the same trend found in the slowest wind analyzed by ACE/SWICS. Further, we measure the absolute abundance in the corona for both oxygen and neon from the data set of 1996 November 22, obtaining A {sub o} = 8.99 ± 0.04 and A {sub Ne} = 7.92 ± 0.03, and we find that both elements are affected by the first ionization potential (FIP) effect, with oxygen being enhanced by a factor of 1.4-2.1 over its photospheric abundance, and neon being changed by a factor of 0.75-1.20. We conclude that the Ne/O ratio is not constant in the solar atmosphere, both in time and at different heights, and that it cannot be reliably used to infer the neon abundance in the photosphere. Also, we argue that the FIP effect was less effective during the minimum of solar cycle 24, and that the Ne/O = 0.25 ± 0.05 value measured at that time is closer to the true photospheric value, leading to a neon photospheric abundance larger than assumed by ≈40%. We discuss the implications of these results for the solar abundance problem, for the FIP effect, and for the identification of the source regions of the solar wind.« less

  13. Linking N2O emission from biochar-amended composting process to the abundance of denitrify (nirK and nosZ) bacteria community.

    PubMed

    Li, Shuqing; Song, Lina; Jin, Yaguo; Liu, Shuwei; Shen, Qirong; Zou, Jianwen

    2016-12-01

    Manure composting has been recognized as an important anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O) contributing to global warming. However, biochar effect on N2O emissions from manure composting is rarely evaluated, especially by linking it to abundance of denitrifying bacteria community. Results of this study indicated that biochar amendment significantly reduced N2O emissions from manure composting, primarily due to suppression of the nirK gene abundance of denitrifying bacteria. Pearson's correlation analysis showed a significant positive correlation between nirK abundance and N2O fluxes, while a negative correlation between nosZ density and N2O fluxes. Simultaneously, a linear correlation between nirK gene abundance minus nosZ gene abundance with N2O fluxes was also observed. In addition, a statistical model for estimating N2O emissions based on the bacterial denitrifying functional genes was developed and verified to adequately fit the observed emissions. Our results highlighted that biochar amendment would be an alternative strategy for mitigating N2O emissions during manure composting, and the information of related functional bacterial communities could be helpful for understanding the mechanism of N2O emissions.

  14. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  15. Observer variability in estimating numbers: An experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erwin, R.M.

    1982-01-01

    Census estimates of bird populations provide an essential framework for a host of research and management questions. However, with some exceptions, the reliability of numerical estimates and the factors influencing them have received insufficient attention. Independent of the problems associated with habitat type, weather conditions, cryptic coloration, ete., estimates may vary widely due only to intrinsic differences in observers? abilities to estimate numbers. Lessons learned in the field of perceptual psychology may be usefully applied to 'real world' problems in field ornithology. Based largely on dot discrimination tests in the laboratory, it was found that numerical abundance, density of objects, spatial configuration, color, background, and other variables influence individual accuracy in estimating numbers. The primary purpose of the present experiment was to assess the effects of observer, prior experience, and numerical range on accuracy in estimating numbers of waterfowl from black-and-white photographs. By using photographs of animals rather than black dots, I felt the results could be applied more meaningfully to field situations. Further, reinforcement was provided throughout some experiments to examine the influence of training on accuracy.

  16. On the Chemical Abundances of Miras in Clusters: V1 in the Metal-rich Globular NGC 5927

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D’Orazi, V.; Magurno, D.; Bono, G.; Matsunaga, N.; Braga, V. F.; Elgueta, S. S.; Fukue, K.; Hamano, S.; Inno, L.; Kobayashi, N.; Kondo, S.; Monelli, M.; Nonino, M.; Przybilla, N.; Sameshima, H.; Saviane, I.; Taniguchi, D.; Thevenin, F.; Urbaneja-Perez, M.; Watase, A.; Arai, A.; Bergemann, M.; Buonanno, R.; Dall’Ora, M.; Da Silva, R.; Fabrizio, M.; Ferraro, I.; Fiorentino, G.; Francois, P.; Gilmozzi, R.; Iannicola, G.; Ikeda, Y.; Jian, M.; Kawakita, H.; Kudritzki, R. P.; Lemasle, B.; Marengo, M.; Marinoni, S.; Martínez-Vázquez, C. E.; Minniti, D.; Neeley, J.; Otsubo, S.; Prieto, J. L.; Proxauf, B.; Romaniello, M.; Sanna, N.; Sneden, C.; Takenaka, K.; Tsujimoto, T.; Valenti, E.; Yasui, C.; Yoshikawa, T.; Zoccali, M.

    2018-03-01

    We present the first spectroscopic abundance determination of iron, α-elements (Si, Ca, and Ti), and sodium for the Mira variable V1 in the metal-rich globular cluster NGC 5927. We use high-resolution (R ∼ 28,000), high signal-to-noise ratio (∼200) spectra collected with WINERED, a near-infrared (NIR) spectrograph covering simultaneously the wavelength range 0.91–1.35 μm. The effective temperature and the surface gravity at the pulsation phase of the spectroscopic observation were estimated using both optical (V) and NIR time-series photometric data. We found that the Mira is metal-rich ([Fe/H] = ‑0.55 ± 0.15) and moderately α-enhanced ([α/Fe] = 0.15 ± 0.01, σ = 0.2). These values agree quite well with the mean cluster abundances based on high-resolution optical spectra of several cluster red giants available in the literature ([Fe/H] = ‑ 0.47 ± 0.06, [α/Fe] = + 0.24 ± 0.05). We also found a Na abundance of +0.35 ± 0.20 that is higher than the mean cluster abundance based on optical spectra (+0.18 ± 0.13). However, the lack of similar spectra for cluster red giants and that of corrections for departures from local thermodynamical equilibrium prevents us from establishing whether the difference is intrinsic or connected with multiple populations. These findings indicate a strong similarity between optical and NIR metallicity scales in spite of the difference in the experimental equipment, data analysis, and in the adopted spectroscopic diagnostics. Based on spectra collected with the WINERED spectrograph available as a visitor instrument at the ESO New Technology Telescope (NTT), La Silla, Chile (ESO Proposal: 098.D-0878(A), PI: G. Bono).

  17. Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.

    1994-06-01

    In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performancemore » to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed.« less

  18. Abundance and size distribution dynamics of abyssal epibenthic megafauna in the northeast Pacific.

    PubMed

    Ruhl, Henry A

    2007-05-01

    The importance of interannual variation in deep-sea abundances is now becoming recognized. There is, however, relatively little known about what processes dominate the observed fluctuations. The abundance and size distribution of the megabenthos have been examined here using a towed camera system at a deep-sea station in the northeast Pacific (Station M) from 1989 to 2004. This 16-year study included 52 roughly seasonal transects averaging 1.2 km in length with over 35600 photographic frames analyzed. Mobile epibenthic megafauna at 4100 m depth have exhibited interannual scale changes in abundance from one to three orders of magnitude. Increases in abundance have now been significantly linked to decreases in mean body size, suggesting that accruals in abundance probably result from the recruitment of young individuals. Examinations of size-frequency histograms indicate several possible recruitment events. Shifts in size-frequency distributions were also used to make basic estimations of individual growth rates from 1 to 6 mm/month, depending on the taxon. Regional intensification in reproduction followed by recruitment within the study area could explain the majority of observed accruals in abundance. Although some adult migration is certainly probable in accounting for local variation in abundances, the slow movements of benthic life stages restrict regional migrations for most taxa. Negative competitive interactions and survivorship may explain the precipitous declines of some taxa. This and other studies have shown that abundances from protozoans to large benthic invertebrates and fishes all have undergone significant fluctuations in abundance at Station M over periods of weeks to years.

  19. Cost-Effective Large-Scale Occupancy–Abundance Monitoring of Invasive Brushtail Possums (Trichosurus Vulpecula) on New Zealand’s Public Conservation Land

    PubMed Central

    Gormley, Andrew M.; Forsyth, David M.; Wright, Elaine F.; Lyall, John; Elliott, Mike; Martini, Mark; Kappers, Benno; Perry, Mike; McKay, Meredith

    2015-01-01

    There is interest in large-scale and unbiased monitoring of biodiversity status and trend, but there are few published examples of such monitoring being implemented. The New Zealand Department of Conservation is implementing a monitoring program that involves sampling selected biota at the vertices of an 8-km grid superimposed over the 8.6 million hectares of public conservation land that it manages. The introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus Vulpecula) is a major threat to some biota and is one taxon that they wish to monitor and report on. A pilot study revealed that the traditional method of monitoring possums using leg-hold traps set for two nights, termed the Trap Catch Index, was a constraint on the cost and logistical feasibility of the monitoring program. A phased implementation of the monitoring program was therefore conducted to collect data for evaluating the trade-off between possum occupancy–abundance estimates and the costs of sampling for one night rather than two nights. Reducing trapping effort from two nights to one night along four trap-lines reduced the estimated costs of monitoring by 5.8% due to savings in labour, food and allowances; it had a negligible effect on estimated national possum occupancy but resulted in slightly higher and less precise estimates of relative possum abundance. Monitoring possums for one night rather than two nights would provide an annual saving of NZ$72,400, with 271 fewer field days required for sampling. Possums occupied 60% (95% credible interval; 53–68) of sampling locations on New Zealand’s public conservation land, with a mean relative abundance (Trap Catch Index) of 2.7% (2.0–3.5). Possum occupancy and abundance were higher in forest than in non-forest habitats. Our case study illustrates the need to evaluate relationships between sampling design, cost, and occupancy–abundance estimates when designing and implementing large-scale occupancy–abundance monitoring programs. PMID:26029890

  20. Modeling and mapping abundance of American Woodcock across the Midwestern and Northeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thogmartin, W.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Knutson, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    We used an over-dispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, to model population spatial patterns of relative abundance of American woodcock (Scolopax minor) across its breeding range in the United States. We predicted North American woodcock Singing Ground Survey counts with a log-linear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, year effects, and observer effects. The model also included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land-cover composition, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. Woodcock counts were higher in landscapes with more forest, especially aspen (Populus tremuloides) and birch (Betula spp.) forest, and in locations with a high degree of interspersion among forest, shrubs, and grasslands. Woodcock counts were lower in landscapes with a high degree of human development. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach was the ability to map predicted relative abundance. Based on a map of predicted relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we identified major concentrations of woodcock abundance in east-central Minnesota, USA, the intersection of Vermont, USA, New York, USA, and Ontario, Canada, the upper peninsula of Michigan, USA, and St. Lawrence County, New York. The functional relations we elucidated for the American woodcock provide a basis for the development of management programs and the model and map may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat features important to American woodcock.

  1. Apparent Trend of the Iron Abundance in NGC 3201: The Same Outcome with Different Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravtsov, Valery V.

    2017-08-01

    We further study the unusual trend we found at statistically significant levels in some globular clusters, including NGC 3201: a decreasing iron abundance in red giants toward the cluster centers. We first show that recently published new estimates of iron abundance in the cluster reproduce this trend, in spite of the authors’ statement about no metallicity spread due to a low scatter achieved in the [Fe II/H] ratio. The mean of [Fe II/H] within R˜ 2\\prime from the cluster center is lower, by Δ[Fe II/H] = 0.05 ± 0.02 dex, than in the outer region, in agreement with our original estimate for a much larger sample size within R≈ 9\\prime . We found that an older data set traces the trend to a much larger radial distance, comparable with the cluster tidal radius, at Δ[Fe/H] ˜ 0.2 dex, due to higher metallicity of distant stars. We conclude the trend is reproduced by independent data sets and find that it is accompanied by both a notable same-sign trend of oxygen abundance that can vary by up to Δ[O/Fe] ˜ 0.3 dex within R≈ 9\\prime and an opposite-sign trend of sodium abundance.

  2. Actinide abundances in ordinary chondrites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hagee, B.; Bernatowicz, T. J.; Podosek, F. A.; Johnson, M. L.; Burnett, D. S.

    1990-01-01

    Measurements of actinide and light REE (LREE) abundances and of phosphate abundances in equilibrated ordinary chondrites were obtained and were used to define the Pu abundance in the solar system and to determine the degree of variation of actinide and LREE abundances. The results were also used to compare directly the Pu/U ratio with the earlier obtained ratio determined indirectly, as (Pu/Nd)x(Nd/U), assuming that Pu behaves chemically as a LREE. The data, combined with high-accuracy isotope-dilution data from the literature, show that the degree of gram-scale variability of the Th, U, and LREE abundances for equilibrated ordinary chondrites is a factor of 2-3 for absolute abundances and up to 50 percent for relative abundances. The observed variations are interpreted as reflecting the differences in the compositions and/or proportions of solar nebula components accreted to ordinary chondrite parent bodies.

  3. Population Estimation Methods for Free-Ranging Dogs: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Belo, Vinícius Silva; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; da Silva, Eduardo Sérgio; Barbosa, David Soeiro; Struchiner, Claudio José

    2015-01-01

    The understanding of the structure of free-roaming dog populations is of extreme importance for the planning and monitoring of populational control strategies and animal welfare. The methods used to estimate the abundance of this group of dogs are more complex than the ones used with domiciled owned dogs. In this systematic review, we analyze the techniques and the results obtained in studies that seek to estimate the size of free-ranging dog populations. Twenty-six studies were reviewed regarding the quality of execution and their capacity to generate valid estimates. Seven of the eight publications that take a simple count of the animal population did not consider the different probabilities of animal detection; only one study used methods based on distances; twelve relied on capture-recapture models for closed populations without considering heterogeneities in capture probabilities; six studies applied their own methods with different potential and limitations. Potential sources of bias in the studies were related to the inadequate description or implementation of animal capturing or viewing procedures and to inadequacies in the identification and registration of dogs. Thus, there was a predominance of estimates with low validity. Abundance and density estimates carried high variability, and all studies identified a greater number of male dogs. We point to enhancements necessary for the implementation of future studies and to potential updates and revisions to the recommendations of the World Health Organization with respect to the estimation of free-ranging dog populations.

  4. Estimation of density of mongooses with capture-recapture and distance sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Corn, J.L.; Conroy, M.J.

    1998-01-01

    We captured mongooses (Herpestes javanicus) in live traps arranged in trapping webs in Antigua, West Indies, and used capture-recapture and distance sampling to estimate density. Distance estimation and program DISTANCE were used to provide estimates of density from the trapping-web data. Mean density based on trapping webs was 9.5 mongooses/ha (range, 5.9-10.2/ha); estimates had coefficients of variation ranging from 29.82-31.58% (X?? = 30.46%). Mark-recapture models were used to estimate abundance, which was converted to density using estimates of effective trap area. Tests of model assumptions provided by CAPTURE indicated pronounced heterogeneity in capture probabilities and some indication of behavioral response and variation over time. Mean estimated density was 1.80 mongooses/ha (range, 1.37-2.15/ha) with estimated coefficients of variation of 4.68-11.92% (X?? = 7.46%). Estimates of density based on mark-recapture data depended heavily on assumptions about animal home ranges; variances of densities also may be underestimated, leading to unrealistically narrow confidence intervals. Estimates based on trap webs require fewer assumptions, and estimated variances may be a more realistic representation of sampling variation. Because trap webs are established easily and provide adequate data for estimation in a few sample occasions, the method should be efficient and reliable for estimating densities of mongooses.

  5. Density Dependence, Landscape, and Weather Impacts on Aquatic Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Along an Urban Altitudinal Gradient.

    PubMed

    Chaves, Luis Fernando; Moji, Kazuhiko

    2018-02-28

    The Asian Bush Mosquito, Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald) is an important globally invasive mosquito species. In comparison with other major invasive mosquitoes, relatively little is known about Ae. j. japonicus population dynamics in the field. Here, we present results from a 54-biweek long study of Ae. j. japonicus abundance in ovitraps set across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that Ae. j. japonicus fourth instar larvae (Aj4il) were more abundant at the base and top of Mt. Konpira and in ovitraps with more platykurtic water temperature (WT) distributions. In contrast, we found that temporally Aj4il were more abundant when ovitrap WT was more leptokurtic with 2 weeks of lag, and with high relative humidity SD with 2 months of lag. We also found that Aj4il were unlikely present when ovitrap WT was below 12.41°C. Parameter estimates for the Ricker model suggested that Ae. j. japonicus population growth was under density-dependence regulation, with a stable population dynamics whose fluctuations were associated with changes in ovitrap WT kurtosis and demographic stochasticity. Our results suggest that Aj4il abundance is more sensitive to temperature changes in kurtosis than mean values, potentially limiting the predictive ability of Ae. j. japonicus niche models based on the increase of average temperatures with global warming, and suggesting this mosquito species has a relatively coarse-grained response to temperature changes.

  6. Juvenile Chinook Salmon abundance in the northern Bering Sea: Implications for future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, James M.; Howard, Kathrine G.; Gann, Jeanette C.; Cieciel, Kristin C.; Templin, William D.; Guthrie, Charles M.

    2017-01-01

    Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance in the northern Bering Sea is used to provide insight into future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River. The status of Yukon River Chinook Salmon is of concern due to recent production declines and subsequent closures of commercial, sport, and personal use fisheries, and severe restrictions on subsistence fisheries in the Yukon River. Surface trawl catch data, mixed layer depth adjustments, and genetic stock mixtures are used to estimate juvenile abundance for the Canadian-origin stock group from the Yukon River. Abundance ranged from a low of 0.62 million in 2012 to a high of 2.58 million in 2013 with an overall average of 1.5 million from 2003 to 2015. Although abundance estimates indicate that average survival is relatively low (average of 5.2%), juvenile abundance was significantly correlated (r=0.87, p=0.005) with adult returns, indicating that much of the variability in survival occurs during early life-history stages (freshwater and initial marine). Juvenile abundance in the northern Bering Sea has increased since 2013 due to an increase in early life-history survival (average juveniles-per-spawner increased from 29 to 59). The increase in juvenile abundance is projected to produce larger runs and increased subsistence fishing opportunities for Chinook Salmon in the Yukon River as early as 2016.

  7. Seasonal distribution and abundance of cetaceans within French waters- Part I: The North-Western Mediterranean, including the Pelagos sanctuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laran, Sophie; Pettex, Emeline; Authier, Matthieu; Blanck, Aurélie; David, Léa; Dorémus, Ghislain; Falchetto, Hélène; Monestiez, Pascal; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Ridoux, Vincent

    2017-07-01

    The biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea is undergoing important changes. Cetaceans, as top predators, are an important component of marine ecosystems. The seasonal distribution and abundance of several cetacean species were studied with a large aerial survey over the North-Western Mediterranean Sea, including the international Pelagos sanctuary, the largest Marine Protected Area (MPA) designed for marine mammals in the Mediterranean. A total of 8 distinct species of cetaceans were identified, and their occurrence within the sanctuary was investigated. Abundance estimates were obtained for three groups of species: the small delphinids (striped dolphins mainly), the bottlenose dolphin and the fin whale. There was a seasonal variation in striped dolphin abundance between winter (57,300 individuals, 95% CI: 34,500-102,000) and summer (130,000, 95% CI: 76,800-222,100). In contrast, bottlenose dolphin winter abundance was thrice that of summer. It was also the only species to exhibit any preference for the Pelagos sanctuary. Fin whale abundance had the reverse pattern with winter abundance (1000 individuals, 95% CI: 500-2500) and summer (2500 individuals, 95% CI: 1500-4300), without any preference for the sanctuary. Risso's dolphins, pilot whales and sperm whales did not exhibit strong seasonal pattern in their abundance. These results provide baseline estimates which can be used to inform conservation policies and instruments such as the Habitats Directive or the recent European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

  8. Poster 12: Nitrile and Hydrocarbon Spatial Abundance Variations in Titan's Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thelen, Alexander E.; Nixon, Conor A.; Molter, Edward; Serigano, Joseph; Cordiner, Martin A.; Charnley, Steven B.; Teanby, Nick; Chanover, Nancy

    2016-06-01

    Many minor constituents of Titan's atmosphere exhibit latitudinal variations in abundance as a result of atmospheric circulation, photochemical production and subsequent destruction throughout Titan's seasonal cycle [1,2]. Species with observed spatial abundance variations include hydrocarbons - such as CH3CCH - and nitriles - HCN, HC3N, CH3CN, and C2H5CN - as found by Cassini [3,4]. Recent calibration images of Titan taken by the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) allow for measurements of rotational transition lines of these species in spatially resolved regions of Titan's disk [5]. Abundance profiles in Titan's lower/middle atmosphere are retrieved by modeling high resolution ALMA spectra using the Non-linear Optimal Estimator for MultivariatE Spectral analySIS (NEMESIS) radiative transfer code [6]. We present continuous abundance profiles for various species in Titan's atmosphere obtained from ALMA data in 2014. These species show polar abundance enhancements which can be compared to studies using Cassini data [7]. Measurements in the mesosphere will constrain molecular photochemical and dynamical models, while temporal variations inform our knowledge of chemical lifetimes for the large inventory of organic species produced in Titan's atmosphere. The synthesis of the ALMA and Cassini datasets thus allow us to observe the important changes in production and circulation of numerous trace components of Titan's atmosphere, which are attributed to Titan's seasons.

  9. Abundance of adult saugers across the Wind River watershed, Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amadio, C.J.; Hubert, W.A.; Johnson, K.; Oberlie, D.; Dufek, D.

    2006-01-01

    The abundance of adult saugers Sander canadensis was estimated over 179 km of continuous lotic habitat across a watershed on the western periphery of their natural distribution in Wyoming. Three-pass depletions with raft-mounted electrofishing gear were conducted in 283 pools and runs among 19 representative reaches totaling 51 km during the late summer and fall of 2002. From 2 to 239 saugers were estimated to occur among the 19 reaches of 1.6-3.8 km in length. The estimates were extrapolated to a total population estimate (mean ?? 95% confidence interval) of 4,115 ?? 308 adult saugers over 179 km of lotie habitat. Substantial variation in mean density (range = 1.0-32.5 fish/ha) and mean biomass (range = 0.5-16.8 kg/ha) of adult saugers in pools and runs was observed among the study reaches. Mean density and biomass were highest in river reaches with pools and runs that had maximum depths of more than 1 m, mean daily summer water temperatures exceeding 20??C, and alkalinity exceeding 130 mg/L. No saugers were captured in the 39 pools or runs with maximum water depths of 0.6 m or less. Multiple-regression analysis and the information-theoretic approach were used to identify watershed-scale and instream habitat features accounting for the variation in biomass among the 244 pools and runs across the watershed with maximum depths greater than 0.6 m. Sauger biomass was greater in pools than in runs and increased as mean daily summer water temperature, maximum depth, and mean summer alkalinity increased and as dominant substrate size decreased. This study provides an estimate of adult sauger abundance and identifies habitat features associated with variation in their density and biomass across a watershed, factors important to the management of both populations and habitat. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  10. Models of Quantitative Estimations: Rule-Based and Exemplar-Based Processes Compared

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Helversen, Bettina; Rieskamp, Jorg

    2009-01-01

    The cognitive processes underlying quantitative estimations vary. Past research has identified task-contingent changes between rule-based and exemplar-based processes (P. Juslin, L. Karlsson, & H. Olsson, 2008). B. von Helversen and J. Rieskamp (2008), however, proposed a simple rule-based model--the mapping model--that outperformed the…

  11. Standard big bang nucleosynthesis and primordial CNO abundances after Planck

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Coc, Alain; Uzan, Jean-Philippe; Vangioni, Elisabeth, E-mail: coc@csnsm.in2p3.fr, E-mail: uzan@iap.fr, E-mail: vangioni@iap.fr

    Primordial or big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is one of the three historical strong evidences for the big bang model. The recent results by the Planck satellite mission have slightly changed the estimate of the baryonic density compared to the previous WMAP analysis. This article updates the BBN predictions for the light elements using the cosmological parameters determined by Planck, as well as an improvement of the nuclear network and new spectroscopic observations. There is a slight lowering of the primordial Li/H abundance, however, this lithium value still remains typically 3 times larger than its observed spectroscopic abundance in halo starsmore » of the Galaxy. According to the importance of this ''lithium problem{sup ,} we trace the small changes in its BBN calculated abundance following updates of the baryonic density, neutron lifetime and networks. In addition, for the first time, we provide confidence limits for the production of {sup 6}Li, {sup 9}Be, {sup 11}B and CNO, resulting from our extensive Monte Carlo calculation with our extended network. A specific focus is cast on CNO primordial production. Considering uncertainties on the nuclear rates around the CNO formation, we obtain CNO/H ≈ (5-30)×10{sup -15}. We further improve this estimate by analyzing correlations between yields and reaction rates and identified new influential reaction rates. These uncertain rates, if simultaneously varied could lead to a significant increase of CNO production: CNO/H∼10{sup -13}. This result is important for the study of population III star formation during the dark ages.« less

  12. Oxygen abundances in halo stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bessell, Michael S.; Sutherland, Ralph S.; Ruan, Kui

    1991-12-01

    The present study determines the oxygen abundance for a sample of metal-poor G dwarfs by analysis of OH lines between 3080 and 3200 A and the permitted high-excitation far-red O I triple. The oxygen abundances determined from the low-excitation OH lines are up to 0.55 dex lower than those measured from the high-excitation O I lines. The abundances for the far-red O I triplet lines agree with those rederived from Abia and Rebolo (1989), and the abundances from the OH lines in dwarfs and giants are in agreement with the rederived O abundances of Barbuy (1988) and others from the forbidden resonance O I line. Because the chi = 0.1.7 eV OH lines are formed in the same layers as the majority of Fe, Ti, and other neutral metal lines used for abundance analyses, it is argued that the OH lines and the forbidden O I line yield the true oxygen abundances relative to the metals.

  13. Abundance analysis of neodymium in the solar atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdelkawy, Ali G. A.; Shaltout, Abdelrazek M. K.; Beheary, M. M.; Bakry, A.

    2017-10-01

    Based on non-local thermodynamical equilibrium (NLTE) calculations, the solar neodymium (Nd) content was found based on a model atom of singly ionized neodymium (Nd II) containing 153 energy levels and 42 line transitions plus the ground state of Nd III. Here, we re-derive the solar Nd abundance using the model of the solar photosphere of Holweger & Müller.We succeed in selecting a good sample line list, relying on 20 Nd II solar lines together with the most accurate transition probabilities measured experimentally and available observational data. With damping parameters obtained from the literature, we find a mean NLTE solar photospheric Nd abundance of log ɛNd(1D) = 1.43 ± 0.16, which is in excellent agreement with the meteoritic value (log ɛNd = 1.45 ± 0.02). For a set of selected Nd II lines, the NLTE abundance correction is found to be +0.01 dex compared with the standard LTE effect. The influence of collisional interactions with electrons and neutral hydrogen atoms is investigated in detail.

  14. Abundances in very metal-poor stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Jennifer Anne

    We measured the abundances of 35 elements in 22 field red giants and a red giant in the globular cluster M92. We found the [Zn/Fe] ratio increases with decreasing [Fe/H], reaching ~0.3 at [Fe/H] = -3.0. While this is a larger [Zn/Fe] than found by previous investigators, it is not sufficient to account for the [Zn/Fe] observed in the damped Lyα systems. We test different models for the production of the s-process elements by comparing our [Y/Zr] values, which have been produced by the r- process, to predictions of what the s-process does not produce. We find that the models of Arlandini et al. (1999), which calculate s-process production in a model AGB star, agree the best. We then look at the r-process abundances across a wide range in mass. The [Y/Ba] values for most of our stars cluster around -0.30, but there are three outliers with [Y/Ba] values up to 1 dex higher. Thus the heavy element abundances do not show the same pattern from Z = 39 to Z = 56. However, our abundances ratios from Pd (Z = 46) to Yb (Z = 70) are consistent with a scaled solar system r- process pattern, arguing that at least the heavy r- process elements are made in a universal pattern. If we assume that this same pattern hold through thorium, we can determine the ages of our stars from the present abundance of radioactive thorium and an initial thorium abundance based on the abundance of stable heavy elements. Our results for five stars are consistent with those stars being the same age. Our mean age is 10.8 +/- 2 Gyr. However that result depends critically on the assumed Th/stable ratio, which we adopt from models of the r-process. For an average age of 15 Gyrs, the initial Th/Eu ratio we would need is 0.590. Finally, the [element/Fe] ratios for elements in the iron group and lower do not show any dispersion, unlike for the r- process elements such as Y and Ba. Therefore the individual contributions of supernovae have been erased for the lighter elements.

  15. Oxygen abundances in halo giants. I - Giants in the very metal-poor globular clusters M92 and M15 and the metal-poor halo field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sneden, Christopher; Kraft, Robert P.; Prosser, Charles F.; Langer, G. E.

    1991-12-01

    Oxygen, iron, vanadium, and scandium abundances are derived for very metal-poor giants in the globular clusters M92 and M15, and giants of comparable metallicity in the local halo field. The forbidden O I line dublet (6300, 6363) and nearby metallic lines in spectra are analyzed using line analysis and spectral synthesis codes. The Fe/H abundance for M92 is estimated at -2.25 +/-0.02 based on nine giants with a range of 500 K in effective temperature. No evidence for star-to-star variations in the Fe/H abundance was found. O-rich and O-poor stars appear intermixed in the H-R diagram. O - N nuclear synthesis and mixing to the surface are proposed as the best explanation for the low-oxygen giants. The nitrogen abundances obtained earlier for nine of the ten halo field giants in this sample are incompatible with the very large nitrogen abundances expected of the O/Fe abundance of about + 1.2 in halo field subdwarfs, as found by Abia and Rebolo (1989), and not more than 0.6 in halo giants, as found in this and other studies.

  16. Abundance Analysis of 17 Planetary Nebulae from High-Resolution Optical Spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherrard, Cameroun G.; Sterling, Nicholas C.; Dinerstein, Harriet L.; Madonna, Simone; Mashburn, Amanda

    2017-06-01

    We present an abundance analysis of 17 planetary nebulae (PNe) observed with the 2D-coudé echelle spectrograph on the 2.7-m Harlan J. Smith telescope at McDonald Observatory. The spectra cover the wavelength range 3600--10,400 Å at a resolution R = 36,700, and are the first high-resolution optical spectra for many objects in our sample. The number of emission lines detected in individual nebulae range from ~125 to over 600. We derive temperatures, densities, and abundances from collisionally-excited lines using the PyNeb package (Luridiana et al. 2015, A&A, 573, A42) and the ionization correction factor scheme of Delgado-Inglada et al. (2014, MNRAS, 440, 536). The abundances of light elements agree with previous estimates for most of the PNe. Several objects exhibit emission lines of refractory elements such as K and Fe, and neutron-capture elements that can be enriched by the s-process. We find that K and Fe are depleted relative to solar by ~0.3--0.7~dex and 1-2 dex, respectively, and find evidence for s-process enrichments in 10 objects. Several objects in our sample exhibit C, N, and O recombination lines that are useful for abundance determinations. These transitions are used to compute abundance discrepancy factors (ADFs), the ratio of ionic abundances derived from permitted lines to those from collisionally-excited transitions. We explore relations among depletion factors, ADFs, s-process enrichment factors, and other nebular stellar and nebular properties. We acknowledge support from NSF awards AST-901432 and AST-0708429.

  17. A Channelization-Based DOA Estimation Method for Wideband Signals

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Rui; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method for wideband signals with sensor arrays. The proposed method splits the wideband array output into multiple frequency sub-channels and estimates the signal parameters using a digital channelization receiver. Based on the output sub-channels, a channelization-based incoherent signal subspace method (Channelization-ISM) and a channelization-based test of orthogonality of projected subspaces method (Channelization-TOPS) are proposed. Channelization-ISM applies narrowband signal subspace methods on each sub-channel independently. Then the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of the estimated DOAs from each sub-channel gives the final result. Channelization-TOPS measures the orthogonality between the signal and the noise subspaces of the output sub-channels to estimate DOAs. The proposed channelization-based method isolates signals in different bandwidths reasonably and improves the output SNR. It outperforms the conventional ISM and TOPS methods on estimation accuracy and dynamic range, especially in real environments. Besides, the parallel processing architecture makes it easy to implement on hardware. A wideband digital array radar (DAR) using direct wideband radio frequency (RF) digitization is presented. Experiments carried out in a microwave anechoic chamber with the wideband DAR are presented to demonstrate the performance. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:27384566

  18. Fine-tuning satellite-based rainfall estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harsa, Hastuadi; Buono, Agus; Hidayat, Rahmat; Achyar, Jaumil; Noviati, Sri; Kurniawan, Roni; Praja, Alfan S.

    2018-05-01

    Rainfall datasets are available from various sources, including satellite estimates and ground observation. The locations of ground observation scatter sparsely. Therefore, the use of satellite estimates is advantageous, because satellite estimates can provide data on places where the ground observations do not present. However, in general, the satellite estimates data contain bias, since they are product of algorithms that transform the sensors response into rainfall values. Another cause may come from the number of ground observations used by the algorithms as the reference in determining the rainfall values. This paper describe the application of bias correction method to modify the satellite-based dataset by adding a number of ground observation locations that have not been used before by the algorithm. The bias correction was performed by utilizing Quantile Mapping procedure between ground observation data and satellite estimates data. Since Quantile Mapping required mean and standard deviation of both the reference and the being-corrected data, thus the Inverse Distance Weighting scheme was applied beforehand to the mean and standard deviation of the observation data in order to provide a spatial composition of them, which were originally scattered. Therefore, it was possible to provide a reference data point at the same location with that of the satellite estimates. The results show that the new dataset have statistically better representation of the rainfall values recorded by the ground observation than the previous dataset.

  19. Phages Infecting Vibrio vulnificus Are Abundant and Diverse in Oysters (Crassostrea virginica) Collected from the Gulf of Mexico

    PubMed Central

    DePaola, Angelo; Motes, Miles L.; Chan, Amy M.; Suttle, Curtis A.

    1998-01-01

    Phages infecting Vibrio vulnificus were abundant (>104 phages g of oyster tissue−1) throughout the year in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) collected from estuaries adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico (Apalachicola Bay, Fla.; Mobile Bay, Ala.; and Black Bay, La.). Estimates of abundance ranged from 101 to 105 phages g of oyster tissue−1 and were dependent on the bacterial strain used to assay the sample. V. vulnificus was near or below detection limits (<0.3 cell g−1) from January through March and was most abundant (103 to 104 cells g−1) during the summer and fall, when phage abundances also tended to be greatest. The phages isolated were specific to strains of V. vulnificus, except for one isolate that caused lysis in a few strains of V. parahaemolyticus. Based on morphological evidence obtained by transmission electron microscopy, the isolates belonged to the Podoviridae, Styloviridae, and Myoviridae, three families of double-stranded DNA phages. One newly described morphotype belonging to the Podoviridae appears to be ubiquitous in Gulf Coast oysters. Isolates of this morphotype have an elongated capsid (mean, 258 nm; standard deviation, 4 nm; n = 35), with some isolates having a relatively broad host range among strains of V. vulnificus. Results from this study indicate that a morphologically diverse group of phages which infect V. vulnificus is abundant and widely distributed in oysters from estuaries bordering the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. PMID:9435088

  20. Distribution and abundance of red tree voles in Oregon based on occurrence in pellets of northern spotted owls.

    Treesearch

    Eric D. Forsman; Robert G. Anthony; Cynthia J. Zabel

    2004-01-01

    Red tree voles are one of the least understood small mammals in the Pacific Northwest, because they live in the forest canopy and are difficult to sample using conventional trapping methods. We examined the distribution and relative abundance of tree voles in different regions of Oregon based on their occurrence in diets of northern spotted owls. We identified the...

  1. [Ichthyofauna associated to Thalassia testudinum at Lobos reef, Veracruz, Mexico: diversity and abundance].

    PubMed

    González-Gándara, Carlos; Trinidad-Martínez, Silvia del Carmen; Chávez-Morales, Víctor Manuel

    2006-03-01

    The diversity and abundance of ichthyofauna associated with Thalassia testudinum in the Lobos coral reef, Veracruz, Mexico, were studied in September and October 2002. Thirty six visual censuses in four sample sites were made using a 50 x 2 m transect belt. On each census, fish species, abundance and size were recorded. Leaf size and cover of T. testudinum were estimated. The similarity of fish groups was calculated with the Gower coefficient. The most abundant coral reef fishes were: Scarus iseri, Halichoeres bivittatus, Sparisoma radians, Stegastes adustus and Stegastes leucostictus. The highest density (0.04078 ind/m2) and biomass (0.72408 g/m2) of fish species were recorded in site II, where leaf size was greater (30.8 cm). The analysis of variance showed significant differences between sites in leaf size (F = 18.30856; p = 0.00001) and cover (H = 33.8119; p = 0.00001). These differences suggest a relationship between fish diversity and abundance, and T. testudinum leaf size and cover. The Gower similarity index produced two groups of fishes; one of them (site II) showed the highest abundance. In this reef, the fishes associated to sea grasses seem to reflect the characteristics of T. testudinum.

  2. Monitoring Great Ape and Elephant Abundance at Large Spatial Scales: Measuring Effectiveness of a Conservation Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Stokes, Emma J.; Strindberg, Samantha; Bakabana, Parfait C.; Elkan, Paul W.; Iyenguet, Fortuné C.; Madzoké, Bola; Malanda, Guy Aimé F.; Mowawa, Brice S.; Moukoumbou, Calixte; Ouakabadio, Franck K.; Rainey, Hugo J.

    2010-01-01

    forests and human disturbance had a negative influence on chimpanzee abundance, in spite of anti-poaching interventions. We caution against the pitfalls of missing and confounded co-variables in model-based estimation approaches and highlight the importance of spatial scale in the response of different species to landscape processes. We stress the importance of a stratified design-based approach to monitoring species status in response to conservation interventions and advocate a holistic framework for landscape-scale monitoring that includes smaller-scale targeted research and punctual assessment of threats. PMID:20428233

  3. Monitoring great ape and elephant abundance at large spatial scales: measuring effectiveness of a conservation landscape.

    PubMed

    Stokes, Emma J; Strindberg, Samantha; Bakabana, Parfait C; Elkan, Paul W; Iyenguet, Fortuné C; Madzoké, Bola; Malanda, Guy Aimé F; Mowawa, Brice S; Moukoumbou, Calixte; Ouakabadio, Franck K; Rainey, Hugo J

    2010-04-23

    and human disturbance had a negative influence on chimpanzee abundance, in spite of anti-poaching interventions. We caution against the pitfalls of missing and confounded co-variables in model-based estimation approaches and highlight the importance of spatial scale in the response of different species to landscape processes. We stress the importance of a stratified design-based approach to monitoring species status in response to conservation interventions and advocate a holistic framework for landscape-scale monitoring that includes smaller-scale targeted research and punctual assessment of threats.

  4. Noise estimation for hyperspectral imagery using spectral unmixing and synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demirkesen, C.; Leloglu, Ugur M.

    2014-10-01

    Most hyperspectral image (HSI) processing algorithms assume a signal to noise ratio model in their formulation which makes them dependent on accurate noise estimation. Many techniques have been proposed to estimate the noise. A very comprehensive comparative study on the subject is done by Gao et al. [1]. In a nut-shell, most techniques are based on the idea of calculating standard deviation from assumed-to-be homogenous regions in the image. Some of these algorithms work on a regular grid parameterized with a window size w, while others make use of image segmentation in order to obtain homogenous regions. This study focuses not only to the statistics of the noise but to the estimation of the noise itself. A noise estimation technique motivated from a recent HSI de-noising approach [2] is proposed in this study. The denoising algorithm is based on estimation of the end-members and their fractional abundances using non-negative least squares method. The end-members are extracted using the well-known simplex volume optimization technique called NFINDR after manual selection of number of end-members and the image is reconstructed using the estimated endmembers and abundances. Actually, image de-noising and noise estimation are two sides of the same coin: Once we denoise an image, we can estimate the noise by calculating the difference of the de-noised image and the original noisy image. In this study, the noise is estimated as described above. To assess the accuracy of this method, the methodology in [1] is followed, i.e., synthetic images are created by mixing end-member spectra and noise. Since best performing method for noise estimation was spectral and spatial de-correlation (SSDC) originally proposed in [3], the proposed method is compared to SSDC. The results of the experiments conducted with synthetic HSIs suggest that the proposed noise estimation strategy outperforms the existing techniques in terms of mean and standard deviation of absolute error of the

  5. Accurate position estimation methods based on electrical impedance tomography measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Samuel; Sbarbaro, Daniel; Johansen, T. A.

    2017-08-01

    Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a technology that estimates the electrical properties of a body or a cross section. Its main advantages are its non-invasiveness, low cost and operation free of radiation. The estimation of the conductivity field leads to low resolution images compared with other technologies, and high computational cost. However, in many applications the target information lies in a low intrinsic dimensionality of the conductivity field. The estimation of this low-dimensional information is addressed in this work. It proposes optimization-based and data-driven approaches for estimating this low-dimensional information. The accuracy of the results obtained with these approaches depends on modelling and experimental conditions. Optimization approaches are sensitive to model discretization, type of cost function and searching algorithms. Data-driven methods are sensitive to the assumed model structure and the data set used for parameter estimation. The system configuration and experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), also have an impact on the results. In order to illustrate the effects of all these factors, the position estimation of a circular anomaly is addressed. Optimization methods based on weighted error cost functions and derivate-free optimization algorithms provided the best results. Data-driven approaches based on linear models provided, in this case, good estimates, but the use of nonlinear models enhanced the estimation accuracy. The results obtained by optimization-based algorithms were less sensitive to experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and SNR, than data-driven approaches. Position estimation mean squared errors for simulation and experimental conditions were more than twice for the optimization-based approaches compared with the data-driven ones. The experimental position estimation mean squared error of the data-driven models using a 16-electrode setup was less

  6. Improving cluster-based missing value estimation of DNA microarray data.

    PubMed

    Brás, Lígia P; Menezes, José C

    2007-06-01

    We present a modification of the weighted K-nearest neighbours imputation method (KNNimpute) for missing values (MVs) estimation in microarray data based on the reuse of estimated data. The method was called iterative KNN imputation (IKNNimpute) as the estimation is performed iteratively using the recently estimated values. The estimation efficiency of IKNNimpute was assessed under different conditions (data type, fraction and structure of missing data) by the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and the correlation coefficients between estimated and true values, and compared with that of other cluster-based estimation methods (KNNimpute and sequential KNN). We further investigated the influence of imputation on the detection of differentially expressed genes using SAM by examining the differentially expressed genes that are lost after MV estimation. The performance measures give consistent results, indicating that the iterative procedure of IKNNimpute can enhance the prediction ability of cluster-based methods in the presence of high missing rates, in non-time series experiments and in data sets comprising both time series and non-time series data, because the information of the genes having MVs is used more efficiently and the iterative procedure allows refining the MV estimates. More importantly, IKNN has a smaller detrimental effect on the detection of differentially expressed genes.

  7. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-03-23

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one's thermal environment.

  8. Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

    2016-01-01

    Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one’s thermal environment. PMID:27023538

  9. Small mammal abundance in Mediterranean post-fire habitats: a role for predators?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torre, I.; Díaz, M.

    2004-05-01

    We studied patterns of small mammal abundance and species richness in post-fire habitats by sampling 33 plots (225 m 2 each) representing different stages of vegetation recovery after fire. Small mammal abundance was estimated by live trapping during early spring 1999 and vegetation structure was sampled by visual estimation at the same plots. Recently-burnt areas were characterised by shrubby and herbaceous vegetation with low structural variability, and unburnt areas were characterised by well developed forest cover with high structural complexity. Small mammal abundance and species richness decreased with time elapsed since the last fire (from 5 to at least 50 years), and these differences were associated to the decreasing cover of short shrubs as the post-fire succession of plant communities advanced. However, relationships between vegetation structure and small mammals differed among areas burned in different times, with weak or negative relationship in recently burnt areas and positive and stronger relationship in unburnt areas. Furthermore, the abundance of small mammals was larger than expected from vegetation structure in plots burned recently whereas the contrary pattern was found in unburned areas. We hypothesised that the pattern observed could be related to the responses of small mammal predators to changes in vegetation and landscape structure promoted by fire. Fire-related fragmentation could have promoted the isolation of forest predators (owls and carnivores) in unburned forest patches, a fact that could have produced a higher predation pressure for small mammals. Conversely, small mammal populations would have been enhanced in early post-fire stages by lower predator numbers combined with better predator protection in areas covered by resprouting woody vegetation.

  10. Anopheles larval abundance and diversity in three rice agro-village complexes Mwea irrigation scheme, central Kenya.

    PubMed

    Mwangangi, Joseph M; Shililu, Josephat; Muturi, Ephantus J; Muriu, Simon; Jacob, Benjamin; Kabiru, Ephantus W; Mbogo, Charles M; Githure, John; Novak, Robert J

    2010-08-09

    The diversity and abundance of Anopheles larvae has significant influence on the resulting adult mosquito population and hence the dynamics of malaria transmission. Studies were conducted to examine larval habitat dynamics and ecological factors affecting survivorship of aquatic stages of malaria vectors in three agro-ecological settings in Mwea, Kenya. Three villages were selected based on rice husbandry and water management practices. Aquatic habitats in the 3 villages representing planned rice cultivation (Mbui Njeru), unplanned rice cultivation (Kiamachiri) and non-irrigated (Murinduko) agro-ecosystems were sampled every 2 weeks to generate stage-specific estimates of mosquito larval densities, relative abundance and diversity. Records of distance to the nearest homestead, vegetation coverage, surface debris, turbidity, habitat stability, habitat type, rice growth stage, number of rice tillers and percent Azolla cover were taken for each habitat. Captures of early, late instars and pupae accounted for 78.2%, 10.9% and 10.8% of the total Anopheles immatures sampled (n = 29,252), respectively. There were significant differences in larval abundance between 3 agro-ecosystems. The village with 'planned' rice cultivation had relatively lower Anopheles larval densities compared to the villages where 'unplanned' or non-irrigated. Similarly, species composition and richness was higher in the two villages with either 'unplanned' or limited rice cultivation, an indication of the importance of land use patterns on diversity of larval habitat types. Rice fields and associated canals were the most productive habitat types while water pools and puddles were important for short periods during the rainy season. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that presence of other invertebrates, percentage Azolla cover, distance to nearest homestead, depth and water turbidity were the best predictors for Anopheles mosquito larval abundance. These results suggest that agricultural

  11. Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

  12. Estimating Driving Performance Based on EEG Spectrum Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Ruei-Cheng; Jung, Tzyy-Ping; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Huang, Teng-Yi

    2005-12-01

    The growing number of traffic accidents in recent years has become a serious concern to society. Accidents caused by driver's drowsiness behind the steering wheel have a high fatality rate because of the marked decline in the driver's abilities of perception, recognition, and vehicle control abilities while sleepy. Preventing such accidents caused by drowsiness is highly desirable but requires techniques for continuously detecting, estimating, and predicting the level of alertness of drivers and delivering effective feedbacks to maintain their maximum performance. This paper proposes an EEG-based drowsiness estimation system that combines electroencephalogram (EEG) log subband power spectrum, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and linear regression models to indirectly estimate driver's drowsiness level in a virtual-reality-based driving simulator. Our results demonstrated that it is feasible to accurately estimate quantitatively driving performance, expressed as deviation between the center of the vehicle and the center of the cruising lane, in a realistic driving simulator.

  13. Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Roseman, Edward F.; DeBruyne, Robin L.

    2014-01-01

    Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

  14. The effects of He I λ10830 on helium abundance determinations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D., E-mail: aver@gonzaga.edu, E-mail: olive@umn.edu, E-mail: skillman@astro.umn.edu

    2015-07-01

    Observations of helium and hydrogen emission lines from metal-poor extragalactic H II regions, combined with estimates of metallicity, provide an independent method for determining the primordial helium abundance, Y{sub p}. Traditionally, the emission lines employed are in the visible wavelength range, and the number of suitable lines is limited. Furthermore, when using these lines, large systematic uncertainties in helium abundance determinations arise due to the degeneracy of physical parameters, such as temperature and density. Recently, Izotov, Thuan, and Guseva (2014) have pioneered adding the He I λ10830 infrared emission line in helium abundance determinations. The strong electron density dependence ofmore » He I λ10830 makes it ideal for better constraining density, potentially breaking the degeneracy with temperature. We revisit our analysis of the dataset published by Izotov, Thuan, and Stasi and apos;nska (2007) and incorporate the newly available observations of He I λ10830 by scaling them using the observed-to-theoretical Paschen-gamma ratio. The solutions are better constrained, in particular for electron density, temperature, and the neutral hydrogen fraction, improving the model fit to data, with the result that more spectra now pass screening for quality and reliability, in addition to a standard 95% confidence level cut. Furthermore, the addition of He I λ10830 decreases the uncertainty on the helium abundance for all galaxies, with reductions in the uncertainty ranging from 10–80%. Overall, we find a reduction in the uncertainty on Y{sub p} by over 50%. From a regression to zero metallicity, we determine Y{sub p} = 0.2449 ± 0.0040, consistent with the BBN result, Y{sub p} = 0.2470 ± 0.0002, based on the Planck determination of the baryon density. The dramatic improvement in the uncertainty from incorporating He I λ10830 strongly supports the case for simultaneous (thus not requiring scaling) observations of visible and infrared

  15. Predicting the Total Abundance of Resident Salmonids within the Willamette River Basin, Oregon - a Macroecological Modeling Approach

    EPA Science Inventory

    I present a simple, macroecological model of fish abundance that was used to estimate the total number of non-migratory salmonids within the Willamette River Basin (western Oregon). The model begins with empirical point estimates of net primary production (NPP in g C/m2) in fore...

  16. Diversity and abundance of the arsenite oxidase gene aioA in geothermal areas of Tengchong, Yunnan, China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Zhou; Li, Ping; Jiang, Dawei; Wu, Geng; Dong, Hailiang; Wang, Yanhong; Li, Bing; Wang, Yanxin; Guo, Qinghai

    2014-01-01

    A total of 12 samples were collected from the Tengchong geothermal areas of Yunnan, China, with the goal to assess the arsenite (AsIII) oxidation potential of the extant microbial communities as inferred by the abundance and diversity of the AsIII oxidase large subunit gene aioA relative to geochemical context. Arsenic concentrations were higher (on average 251.68 μg/L) in neutral or alkaline springs than in acidic springs (on average 30.88 μg/L). aioA abundance ranged from 1.63 × 10(1) to 7.08 × 10(3) per ng of DNA and positively correlated with sulfide and the ratios of arsenate (AsV):total dissolved arsenic (AsTot). Based on qPCR estimates of bacterial and archaeal 16S rRNA gene abundance, aioA-harboring organisms comprised as much as ~15% of the total community. Phylogenetically, the major aioA sequences (270 total) in the acidic hot springs (pH 3.3-4.4) were affiliated with Aquificales and Rhizobiales, while those in neutral or alkaline springs (pH 6.6-9.1) were inferred to be primarily bacteria related to Thermales and Burkholderiales. Interestingly, aioA abundance at one site greatly exceeded bacterial 16S rRNA gene abundance, suggesting these aioA genes were archaeal even though phylogenetically these aioA sequences were most similar to the Aquificales. In summary, this study described novel aioA sequences in geothermal features geographically far removed from those in the heavily studied Yellowstone geothermal complex.

  17. Manganese Abundances in the Stars with Metallicities -1 <[Fe/H]< +0.3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishenina, T.; Gorbaneva, T.; Pignatari, M.; Thielemann, F.-K.; Korotin, S.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the Mn abundances in the atmospheres of 247 F-G-K-type dwarf stars belonging to the thin and thick disk populations in the metallicity range -1 < [Fe/H] < +0.3. The observations were conducted using the 1.93 m telescope at Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP, France) equipped with the echelle type spectrographs ELODIE and SOPHIE. The abundances were derived under the LTE approximation; the synthetic spectrum for the Mn lines was computed accounting for the hyperfine structure. Starting from the results obtained, we discuss the evolution of the [Mn/Fe] ratio with respect to [Fe/H] in the galactic disk.

  18. Estimating Limit Reference Points for Western Pacific Leatherback Turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the U.S. West Coast EEZ.

    PubMed

    Curtis, K Alexandra; Moore, Jeffrey E; Benson, Scott R

    2015-01-01

    Biological limit reference points (LRPs) for fisheries catch represent upper bounds that avoid undesirable population states. LRPs can support consistent management evaluation among species and regions, and can advance ecosystem-based fisheries management. For transboundary species, LRPs prorated by local abundance can inform local management decisions when international coordination is lacking. We estimated LRPs for western Pacific leatherbacks in the U.S. West Coast Exclusive Economic Zone (WCEEZ) using three approaches with different types of information on local abundance. For the current application, the best-informed LRP used a local abundance estimate derived from nest counts, vital rate information, satellite tag data, and fishery observer data, and was calculated with a Potential Biological Removal estimator. Management strategy evaluation was used to set tuning parameters of the LRP estimators to satisfy risk tolerances for falling below population thresholds, and to evaluate sensitivity of population outcomes to bias in key inputs. We estimated local LRPs consistent with three hypothetical management objectives: allowing the population to rebuild to its maximum net productivity level (4.7 turtles per five years), limiting delay of population rebuilding (0.8 turtles per five years), or only preventing further decline (7.7 turtles per five years). These LRPs pertain to all human-caused removals and represent the WCEEZ contribution to meeting population management objectives within a broader international cooperative framework. We present multi-year estimates, because at low LRP values, annual assessments are prone to substantial error that can lead to volatile and costly management without providing further conservation benefit. The novel approach and the performance criteria used here are not a direct expression of the "jeopardy" standard of the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but they provide useful assessment information and could help guide international

  19. Spatial Variations of Chemical Abundances in Titan's Atmosphere as Revealed by ALMA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thelen, Alexander E.; Nixon, Conor; Chanover, Nancy J.; Molter, Edward; Serigano, Joseph; Cordiner, Martin; Charnley, Steven B.; Teanby, Nicholas A.; Irwin, Patrick

    2016-10-01

    Complex organic molecules in Titan's atmosphere - formed through the dissociation of N2 and CH4 - exhibit latitudinal variations in abundance as observed by Cassini. Chemical species including hydrocarbons - such as CH3CCH - and nitriles - HCN, HC3N, CH3CN, and C2H5CN - may show spatial abundance variations as a result of atmospheric circulation, photochemical production and subsequent destruction throughout Titan's seasonal cycle. Recent calibration images of Titan taken by the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) with beam sizes of ~0.3'' allow for measurements of rotational transition lines of these species in spatially resolved regions of Titan's disk. We present abundance profiles obtained from public ALMA data taken in 2014, as Titan transitioned into northern summer. Abundance profiles in Titan's lower/middle atmosphere were retrieved by modeling high resolution ALMA spectra using the Non-linear Optimal Estimator for MultivariatE Spectral analySIS (NEMESIS) radiative transfer code. These retrievals were performed using spatial temperature profiles obtained by modeling strong CO lines from datasets taken in similar times with comparable resolution. We compare the abundance variations of chemical species to measurements made using Cassini data. Comparisons of chemical species with strong abundance enhancements over the poles will inform our knowledge of chemical lifetimes in Titan's atmosphere, and allow us to observe the important changes in production and circulation of numerous organic molecules which are attributed to Titan's seasons.

  20. Relative Abundance of Carsonella ruddii (Gamma Proteobacterium) in Females and Males of Cacopsylla pyricola (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) and Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae)

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, W. Rodney; Garczynski, Stephen F.; Horton, David R.

    2015-01-01

    Carsonella ruddii (Gamma Proteobacterium) is an obligate bacterial endosymbiont of psyllids that produces essential amino acids that are lacking in the insect’s diet. Accurate estimations of Carsonella populations are important to studies of Carsonella-psyllid interactions and to developing ways to target Carsonella for control of psyllid pests including pear psylla, Cacopsylla pyricola (Förster) (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) and potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Šulc) (Hemiptera: Triozidae). We used two methods, namely fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), to estimate relative abundance of Carsonella in bacteriocytes and whole bodies of psyllids, respectively. Using these two methods, we compared Carsonella populations between female and male insects. Estimations using fluorescence in situ hybridization indicated that Carsonella was more abundant in bacteriocytes of female C. pyricola than in those of males, but Carsonella abundance in bacteriocytes did not differ between sexes of B. cockerelli. Analyses by qPCR using whole-body specimens indicated Carsonella was more abundant in females than in males of both psyllids. Neither fluorescence in situ hybridization nor qPCR indicated that Carsonella populations differed in abundance among adults of different ages (0–3 wk after adult eclosion). Using fluorescence in situ hybridization, Carsonella was observed in ovarioles of newly emerged females and formed an aggregation in the posterior end of mature oocytes. Results of our study indicate that female psyllids harbor greater populations of Carsonella than do males and that sex should be controlled for in studies which require estimations of Carsonella populations. PMID:26056318

  1. Double-survey estimates of bald eagle populations in Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anthony, R.G.; Garrett, Monte G.; Isaacs, F.B.

    1999-01-01

    The literature on abundance of birds of prey is almost devoid of population estimates with statistical rigor. Therefore, we surveyed bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations on the Crooked and lower Columbia rivers of Oregon and used the double-survey method to estimate populations and sighting probabilities for different survey methods (aerial, boat, vehicle) and bald eagle ages (adults vs. subadults). Sighting probabilities were consistently 20%. The results revealed variable and negative bias (percent relative bias = -9 to -70%) of direct counts and emphasized the importance of estimating populations where some measure of precision and ability to conduct inference tests are available. We recommend use of the double-survey method to estimate abundance of bald eagle populations and other raptors in open habitats.

  2. Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces

    PubMed Central

    Tuononen, Ari J.

    2009-01-01

    Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

  3. Estimation of Compaction Parameters Based on Soil Classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubis, A. S.; Muis, Z. A.; Hastuty, I. P.; Siregar, I. M.

    2018-02-01

    Factors that must be considered in compaction of the soil works were the type of soil material, field control, maintenance and availability of funds. Those problems then raised the idea of how to estimate the density of the soil with a proper implementation system, fast, and economical. This study aims to estimate the compaction parameter i.e. the maximum dry unit weight (γ dmax) and optimum water content (Wopt) based on soil classification. Each of 30 samples were being tested for its properties index and compaction test. All of the data’s from the laboratory test results, were used to estimate the compaction parameter values by using linear regression and Goswami Model. From the research result, the soil types were A4, A-6, and A-7 according to AASHTO and SC, SC-SM, and CL based on USCS. By linear regression, the equation for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *)=1,862-0,005*FINES- 0,003*LL and estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *)=- 0,607+0,362*FINES+0,161*LL. By Goswami Model (with equation Y=mLogG+k), for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *) with m=-0,376 and k=2,482, for estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *) with m=21,265 and k=-32,421. For both of these equations a 95% confidence interval was obtained.

  4. OXYGEN ABUNDANCES IN CEPHEIDS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Luck, R. E.; Andrievsky, S. M.; Korotin, S. N.

    2013-07-01

    Oxygen abundances in later-type stars, and intermediate-mass stars in particular, are usually determined from the [O I] line at 630.0 nm, and to a lesser extent, from the O I triplet at 615.7 nm. The near-IR triplets at 777.4 nm and 844.6 nm are strong in these stars and generally do not suffer from severe blending with other species. However, these latter two triplets suffer from strong non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects and thus see limited use in abundance analyses. In this paper, we derive oxygen abundances in a large sample of Cepheids using the near-IR triplets from an NLTEmore » analysis, and compare those abundances to values derived from a local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) analysis of the [O I] 630.0 nm line and the O I 615.7 nm triplet as well as LTE abundances for the 777.4 nm triplet. All of these lines suffer from line strength problems making them sensitive to either measurement complications (weak lines) or to line saturation difficulties (strong lines). Upon this realization, the LTE results for the [O I] lines and the O I 615.7 nm triplet are in adequate agreement with the abundance from the NLTE analysis of the near-IR triplets.« less

  5. Target strengths of two abundant mesopelagic fish species.

    PubMed

    Scoulding, Ben; Chu, Dezhang; Ona, Egil; Fernandes, Paul G

    2015-02-01

    Mesopelagic fish of the Myctophidae and Sternoptychidae families dominate the biomass of the oceanic deep scattering layers and, therefore, have important ecological roles within these ecosystems. Interest in the commercial exploitation of these fish is growing, so the development of techniques for estimating their abundance, distribution and, ultimately, sustainable exploitation are essential. The acoustic backscattering characteristics for two size classes of Maurolicus muelleri and Benthosema glaciale are reported here based on swimbladder morphology derived from digitized soft x-ray images, and empirical (in situ) measurements of target strength (TS) derived from an acoustic survey in a Norwegian Sea. A backscattering model based on a gas-filled prolate spheroid was used to predict the theoretical TS for both species across a frequency range between 0 and 250 kHz. Sensitivity analyses of the TS model to the modeling parameters indicate that TS is rather sensitive to the viscosity, swimbladder volume ratio, and tilt, which can result in substantial changes to the TS. Theoretical TS predictions close to the resonance frequency were in good agreement (±2 dB) with mean in situ TS derived from the areas acoustically surveyed that were spatially and temporally consistent with the trawl information for both species.

  6. The Th and U abundances in chondritic meteorites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, J. H.; Wasserburg, G. J.; Papanastassiou, D. A.

    1993-01-01

    We present new analyses of Th-232/U-238 in CI and CM meteorites. The relative abundance of these nuclides is important in estimates of the age of r-process elements. The cosmochronology based upon the Th-232/U-238 ratio (kappa) depends on the precise determinations of these two different elements in meteorites and on the production ratios. Both parameters are subject to substantial errors. Recent recalculations of this chronology have used selected values from compilations but do not adequately address the errors in terms of a reliable data base. Morgan and Lovering provided extensive neutron activation analyses for ordinary chondrites which yield an average kappa of 3.6 +/- 0.4. Their work on carbonaceous chondrites showed a wide range in kappa from 2 to 6. More recent investigations by isotopic dilution have established the following: (1) highly variable kappa from 2.7 to 11 in Allende Ca-Al-rich inclusions and a value of 3.6 in the Orgueil CI1 chondrite; (2) a range from 2.71 to 6.63 for 7 L-type chondrites and a range from 2.7 to 4.4 for 6 L, H, and LL chondrites. A further investigation of this subject matter is presented.

  7. Optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Gang; Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

    2016-01-01

    We use optimal design theory and construct locally optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator (MqLE), which is derived under less stringent conditions than those required for the MLE method. We show that the proposed locally optimal designs are asymptotically as efficient as those based on the MLE when the error distribution is from an exponential family, and they perform just as well or better than optimal designs based on any other asymptotically linear unbiased estimators such as the least square estimator (LSE). In addition, we show current algorithms for finding optimal designs can be directly used to find optimal designs based on the MqLE. As an illustrative application, we construct a variety of locally optimal designs based on the MqLE for the 4-parameter logistic (4PL) model and study their robustness properties to misspecifications in the model using asymptotic relative efficiency. The results suggest that optimal designs based on the MqLE can be easily generated and they are quite robust to mis-specification in the probability distribution of the responses. PMID:28163359

  8. Carbon and nitrogen abundances in metal-poor dwarfs of the solar neighborhood

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carbon, Duane F.; Barbuy, Beatrice; Kraft, Robert P.; Friel, Eileen D.; Suntzeff, Nicholas B.

    1987-01-01

    Intermediate-resolution C, N, and Fe abundance spectra for 83 subdwarfs in the lowest metallicity range (-1.5 to -3.2), obtained with the Lick Observatory 3.1-m Shane telescope, are analyzed. The effects of subgiants and binaries on the sample are examined. The relation between (B-V) and (V-K) and effective temperature is studied. C/Fe, N/Fe, and Fe/H abundances were determined using the model-atmosphere technique of spectrum synthesis. The derived abundance values are compared with data from previous investigations. It is observed that there is good correlation between the Fe/H abundance values derived from the intermediate-resolution spectra and those based on high-resolution spectra; C/Fe abundance values are constant; and there is an upturn in the C/Fe abundance values at the very lowest metallicities.

  9. Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

  10. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  11. Acoustical Scattering, Propagation, and Attenuation Caused by Two Abundant Pacific Schooling Species: Humboldt Squid and Hake

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    an area important for acoustical testing and tactical exercises, the most abundant species by biomass is Pacific hake, Merluccius productus, a fish...scattering characteristics of the animal especially if the animal has eaten hard- shelled mollusc prey. Figure 7. A dorsal scan (similar to an x-ray) of a...kHz echogram. 11 In order to generate abundance and biomass estimates for organisms using active acoustics, one assumption that can be made is

  12. High viral abundance as a consequence of low viral decay in the Baltic Sea redoxcline

    PubMed Central

    Scharnreitner, Lisa; Jürgens, Klaus; Labrenz, Matthias; Herndl, Gerhard J.; Winter, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the Baltic Sea redoxcline, virus production and the frequency of lytically-infected prokaryotic cells were estimated from parallel incubations of undiluted seawater and seawater that contained prokaryotes with substantially reduced numbers of viruses (virus dilution approach), effectively preventing viral reinfection during the incubation period. Undiluted seawater incubations resulted in much higher estimates of virus production (6–35×104 mL-1 h-1) and the frequency of infected cells (5–84%) than the virus dilution approach (virus production: 1–3×104 mL-1 h-1; frequency of infected cells: 1–11%). Viral production and the frequency of infected cells from both approaches, however, cannot be directly compared, as data obtained from undiluted incubations were biased by viral reinfection and other uncontrollable processes during the incubation period. High in situ viral abundance (1–2×107 mL-1) together with low virus production rates based on the virus dilution approach resulted in some of the longest viral turnover times (24–84 d) ever reported for the epipelagial. Throughout a wide range of environmental conditions, viral turnover time and burst size were negatively correlated. Given that viral decay estimated in ultra-filtered water was below the detection limit and the burst size was low (1–17), we conclude that prokaryotic viruses in the Baltic Sea redoxcline are investing most of their resources into stress defense (strong capsids) rather than proliferation (high burst size). In summary, the Baltic Sea redoxcline constitutes an environment where low virus production is found in combination with low viral decay, resulting in high viral abundance. PMID:28594863

  13. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees ofmore » freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.« less

  14. Seasonal distribution and abundance of cetaceans within French waters- Part II: The Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laran, Sophie; Authier, Matthieu; Blanck, Aurélie; Doremus, Ghislain; Falchetto, Hélène; Monestiez, Pascal; Pettex, Emeline; Stephan, Eric; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Ridoux, Vincent

    2017-07-01

    From the Habitat Directive to the recent Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the conservation status of cetaceans in European water has been of concern for over two decades. In this study, a seasonal comparison of the abundance and distribution of cetaceans was carried out in two contrasted regions of the Eastern North Atlantic, the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel. Estimates were obtained in the two sub-regions (375,000 km²) from large aerial surveys conducted in the winter (November 2011 to February 2012) and in the summer (May to August 2012). The most abundant species encountered in the Channel, the harbour porpoise, displayed strong seasonal variations in its distribution but a stable abundance (18,000 individuals, CV=30%). In the Bay of Biscay, abundance and distribution patterns of common / striped dolphins varied from 285,000 individuals (95% CI: 174,000-481,000) in the winter, preferentially distributed close to the shelf break, to 494,000 individuals (95% CI: 342,000-719,000) distributed beyond the shelf break in summer. Baleen whales also exhibited an increase of their density in summer. Seasonal abundances of bottlenose dolphins were quite stable, with a large number of 'pelagic' encounters offshore in winter. No significant seasonal difference was estimated for pilot whales and sperm whale. These surveys provided baseline estimates to inform policies to be developed, or for existing conservation instruments such as the Habitats Directive. In addition, our results supported the hypothesis of a shift in the summer distributions of some species such as harbour porpoise and minke whale in European waters.

  15. The galaxy clustering crisis in abundance matching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, Duncan; van den Bosch, Frank C.; Padmanabhan, Nikhil; Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Lange, Johannes U.; Jiang, Fangzhou; Villarreal, Antonio

    2018-06-01

    Galaxy clustering on small scales is significantly underpredicted by sub-halo abundance matching (SHAM) models that populate (sub-)haloes with galaxies based on peak halo mass, Mpeak. SHAM models based on the peak maximum circular velocity, Vpeak, have had much better success. The primary reason for Mpeak-based models fail is the relatively low abundance of satellite galaxies produced in these models compared to those based on Vpeak. Despite success in predicting clustering, a simple Vpeak-based SHAM model results in predictions for galaxy growth that are at odds with observations. We evaluate three possible remedies that could `save' mass-based SHAM: (1) SHAM models require a significant population of `orphan' galaxies as a result of artificial disruption/merging of sub-haloes in modern high-resolution dark matter simulations; (2) satellites must grow significantly after their accretion; and (3) stellar mass is significantly affected by halo assembly history. No solution is entirely satisfactory. However, regardless of the particulars, we show that popular SHAM models based on Mpeak cannot be complete physical models as presented. Either Vpeak truly is a better predictor of stellar mass at z ˜ 0 and it remains to be seen how the correlation between stellar mass and Vpeak comes about, or SHAM models are missing vital component(s) that significantly affect galaxy clustering.

  16. Comparative Analysis of Various Single-tone Frequency Estimation Techniques in High-order Instantaneous Moments Based Phase Estimation Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajshekhar, G.; Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

    2010-04-01

    For phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM) based method was recently developed which relies on piecewise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients using the HIM operator. A crucial step in the method is mapping the polynomial coefficient estimation to single-tone frequency determination for which various techniques exist. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of the HIM operator based method in using different single-tone frequency estimation techniques for phase estimation. The analysis is supplemented by simulation results.

  17. A trait based perspective on the biogeography of common and abundant marine bacterioplankton clades.

    PubMed

    Brown, Mark V; Ostrowski, Martin; Grzymski, Joseph J; Lauro, Federico M

    2014-06-01

    Marine microbial communities provide much of the energy upon which all higher trophic levels depend, particularly in open-ocean and oligotrophic systems, and play a pivotal role in biogeochemical cycling. How and why species are distributed in the global oceans, and whether net ecosystem function can be accurately predicted from community composition are fundamental questions for marine scientists. Many of the most abundant clades of marine bacteria, including the Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, SAR11, SAR86 and Roseobacter, have a very broad, if not a cosmopolitan distribution. However this is not reflected in an underlying genetic identity. Rather, widespread distribution in these organisms is achieved by the existence of closely related but discrete ecotypes that display niche adaptations. Closely related ecotypes display specific nutritional or energy generating mechanisms and are adapted to different physical parameters including temperature, salinity, and hydrostatic pressure. Furthermore, biotic phenomena such as selective grazing and viral loss contribute to the success or failure of ecotypes allowing some to compete effectively in particular marine provinces but not in others. An additional layer of complexity is added by ocean currents and hydrodynamic specificity of water body masses that bound microbial dispersal and immigration. These vary in space and time with respect to intensity and direction, making the definition of large biogeographic provinces problematic. A deterministic theory aimed at understanding how all these factors shape microbial life in the oceans can only proceed through analysis of microbial traits, rather than pure phylogenetic assessments. Trait based approaches seek mechanistic explanations for the observed temporal and spatial patterns. This review will present successful recent advances in phylogenetic and trait based biogeographic analyses in some of the most abundant marine taxa. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Absolute quantification of microbial taxon abundances.

    PubMed

    Props, Ruben; Kerckhof, Frederiek-Maarten; Rubbens, Peter; De Vrieze, Jo; Hernandez Sanabria, Emma; Waegeman, Willem; Monsieurs, Pieter; Hammes, Frederik; Boon, Nico

    2017-02-01

    High-throughput amplicon sequencing has become a well-established approach for microbial community profiling. Correlating shifts in the relative abundances of bacterial taxa with environmental gradients is the goal of many microbiome surveys. As the abundances generated by this technology are semi-quantitative by definition, the observed dynamics may not accurately reflect those of the actual taxon densities. We combined the sequencing approach (16S rRNA gene) with robust single-cell enumeration technologies (flow cytometry) to quantify the absolute taxon abundances. A detailed longitudinal analysis of the absolute abundances resulted in distinct abundance profiles that were less ambiguous and expressed in units that can be directly compared across studies. We further provide evidence that the enrichment of taxa (increase in relative abundance) does not necessarily relate to the outgrowth of taxa (increase in absolute abundance). Our results highlight that both relative and absolute abundances should be considered for a comprehensive biological interpretation of microbiome surveys.

  19. Variable disparity-motion estimation based fast three-view video coding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bae, Kyung-Hoon; Kim, Seung-Cheol; Hwang, Yong Seok; Kim, Eun-Soo

    2009-02-01

    In this paper, variable disparity-motion estimation (VDME) based 3-view video coding is proposed. In the encoding, key-frame coding (KFC) based motion estimation and variable disparity estimation (VDE) for effectively fast three-view video encoding are processed. These proposed algorithms enhance the performance of 3-D video encoding/decoding system in terms of accuracy of disparity estimation and computational overhead. From some experiments, stereo sequences of 'Pot Plant' and 'IVO', it is shown that the proposed algorithm's PSNRs is 37.66 and 40.55 dB, and the processing time is 0.139 and 0.124 sec/frame, respectively.

  20. Evaluation of species richness estimators based on quantitative performance measures and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willie, Jacob; Petre, Charles-Albert; Tagg, Nikki; Lens, Luc

    2012-11-01

    Data from forest herbaceous plants in a site of known species richness in Cameroon were used to test the performance of rarefaction and eight species richness estimators (ACE, ICE, Chao1, Chao2, Jack1, Jack2, Bootstrap and MM). Bias, accuracy, precision and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size were the evaluation criteria. An evaluation of the effects of sampling effort and patchiness on diversity estimation is also provided. Stems were identified and counted in linear series of 1-m2 contiguous square plots distributed in six habitat types. Initially, 500 plots were sampled in each habitat type. The sampling process was monitored using rarefaction and a set of richness estimator curves. Curves from the first dataset suggested adequate sampling in riparian forest only. Additional plots ranging from 523 to 2143 were subsequently added in the undersampled habitats until most of the curves stabilized. Jack1 and ICE, the non-parametric richness estimators, performed better, being more accurate and less sensitive to patchiness and sample grain size, and significantly reducing biases that could not be detected by rarefaction and other estimators. This study confirms the usefulness of non-parametric incidence-based estimators, and recommends Jack1 or ICE alongside rarefaction while describing taxon richness and comparing results across areas sampled using similar or different grain sizes. As patchiness varied across habitat types, accurate estimations of diversity did not require the same number of plots. The number of samples needed to fully capture diversity is not necessarily the same across habitats, and can only be known when taxon sampling curves have indicated adequate sampling. Differences in observed species richness between habitats were generally due to differences in patchiness, except between two habitats where they resulted from differences in abundance. We suggest that communities should first be sampled thoroughly using appropriate taxon sampling