Sample records for accident causal factors

  1. A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, C. W.; Holloway, C, M.

    2007-01-01

    Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

  2. Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

    PubMed

    Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

    2012-09-01

    Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

    PubMed

    Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

    2015-05-01

    The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  4. Aircraft Loss of Control Causal Factors and Mitigation Challenges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, Steven R.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control is the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding a large number of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified the causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. This report describes the study approach, the key causal factors for aircraft loss of control, and recommended mitigation strategies to make near-term impacts, mid-term impacts, and Next Generation Air Transportation System impacts on the loss of control accident statistics

  5. Correlation of causal factors that influence construction safety performance: A model.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, F; Coutinho, A; Cardoso, C

    2015-01-01

    The construction sector has presented positive development regarding the decrease in occupational accident rates in recent years. Regardless, the construction sector stands out systematically from other industries due to its high number of fatalities. The aim of this paper is to deeply understand the causality of construction accidents from the early design phase through a model. This study reviewed several research papers presenting various analytical models that correlate the contributing factors to occupational accidents in this sector. This study also analysed different construction projects and conducted a survey of design and site supervision teams. This paper proposes a model developed from the analysis of existing ones, which correlates the causal factors through all the construction phases. It was concluded that effective risk prevention can only be achieved by a global correlation of causal factors including not only production ones but also client requirements, financial climate, design team competence, project and risk management, financial capacity, health and safety policy and early planning. Accordingly, a model is proposed.

  6. Causal Factors and Adverse Conditions of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Sandifer, Carl E.; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2010-01-01

    The causal factors of accidents from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database and incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) database associated with loss of control (LOC) were examined for four types of operations (i.e., Federal Aviation Regulation Part 121, Part 135 Scheduled, Part 135 Nonscheduled, and Part 91) for the years 1988 to 2004. In-flight LOC is a serious aviation problem. Well over half of the LOC accidents included at least one fatality (80 percent in Part 121), and roughly half of all aviation fatalities in the studied time period occurred in conjunction with LOC. An adverse events table was updated to provide focus to the technology validation strategy of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project. The table contains three types of adverse conditions: failure, damage, and upset. Thirteen different adverse condition subtypes were gleaned from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), the FAA Accident and Incident database, and the NTSB database. The severity and frequency of the damage conditions, initial test conditions, and milestones references are also provided.

  7. Causal Factors and Adverse Events of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Jones, Sharon M.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Leone, Karen M.; Sandifer, Carl E.

    2011-01-01

    Causal factors in aviation accidents and incidents related to system/component failure/malfunction (SCFM) were examined for Federal Aviation Regulation Parts 121 and 135 operations to establish future requirements for the NASA Aviation Safety Program s Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project. Data analyzed includes National Transportation Safety Board (NSTB) accident data (1988 to 2003), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident data (1988 to 2003), and Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident data (1993 to 2008). Failure modes and effects analyses were examined to identify possible modes of SCFM. A table of potential adverse conditions was developed to help evaluate IVHM research technologies. Tables present details of specific SCFM for the incidents and accidents. Of the 370 NTSB accidents affected by SCFM, 48 percent involved the engine or fuel system, and 31 percent involved landing gear or hydraulic failure and malfunctions. A total of 35 percent of all SCFM accidents were caused by improper maintenance. Of the 7732 FAA database incidents affected by SCFM, 33 percent involved landing gear or hydraulics, and 33 percent involved the engine and fuel system. The most frequent SCFM found in ASRS were turbine engine, pressurization system, hydraulic main system, flight management system/flight management computer, and engine. Because the IVHM Project does not address maintenance issues, and landing gear and hydraulic systems accidents are usually not fatal, the focus of research should be those SCFMs that occur in the engine/fuel and flight control/structures systems as well as power systems.

  8. Contributing factors in construction accidents.

    PubMed

    Haslam, R A; Hide, S A; Gibb, A G F; Gyi, D E; Pavitt, T; Atkinson, S; Duff, A R

    2005-07-01

    This overview paper draws together findings from previous focus group research and studies of 100 individual construction accidents. Pursuing issues raised by the focus groups, the accident studies collected qualitative information on the circumstances of each incident and the causal influences involved. Site based data collection entailed interviews with accident-involved personnel and their supervisor or manager, inspection of the accident location, and review of appropriate documentation. Relevant issues from the site investigations were then followed up with off-site stakeholders, including designers, manufacturers and suppliers. Levels of involvement of key factors in the accidents were: problems arising from workers or the work team (70% of accidents), workplace issues (49%), shortcomings with equipment (including PPE) (56%), problems with suitability and condition of materials (27%), and deficiencies with risk management (84%). Employing an ergonomics systems approach, a model is proposed, indicating the manner in which originating managerial, design and cultural factors shape the circumstances found in the work place, giving rise to the acts and conditions which, in turn, lead to accidents. It is argued that attention to the originating influences will be necessary for sustained improvement in construction safety to be achieved.

  9. Human error and commercial aviation accidents: an analysis using the human factors analysis and classification system.

    PubMed

    Shappell, Scott; Detwiler, Cristy; Holcomb, Kali; Hackworth, Carla; Boquet, Albert; Wiegmann, Douglas A

    2007-04-01

    The aim of this study was to extend previous examinations of aviation accidents to include specific aircrew, environmental, supervisory, and organizational factors associated with two types of commercial aviation (air carrier and commuter/ on-demand) accidents using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). HFACS is a theoretically based tool for investigating and analyzing human error associated with accidents and incidents. Previous research has shown that HFACS can be reliably used to identify human factors trends associated with military and general aviation accidents. Using data obtained from both the National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration, 6 pilot-raters classified aircrew, supervisory, organizational, and environmental causal factors associated with 1020 commercial aviation accidents that occurred over a 13-year period. The majority of accident causal factors were attributed to aircrew and the environment, with decidedly fewer associated with supervisory and organizational causes. Comparisons were made between HFACS causal categories and traditional situational variables such as visual conditions, injury severity, and regional differences. These data will provide support for the continuation, modification, and/or development of interventions aimed at commercial aviation safety. HFACS provides a tool for assessing human factors associated with accidents and incidents.

  10. The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

  11. An assessment of predominant causal factors of pilot deviations that contribute to runway incursions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, Denado M.

    The aim of this study was to identify predominant causal factors of pilot deviations in runway incursions over a two-year period. Runway incursion reports were obtained from NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), and a qualitative method was used by classifying and coding each report to a specific causal factor(s). The causal factors that were used were substantiated by research from the Aircraft Owner's and Pilot's Association that found that these causal factors were the most common in runway incursion incidents and accidents. An additional causal factor was also utilized to determine the significance of pilot training in relation to runway incursions. From the reports examined, it was found that miscommunication and situational awareness have the greatest impact on pilots and are most often the major causes of runway incursions. This data can be used to assist airports, airlines, and the FAA to understand trends in pilot deviations, and to find solutions for specific problem areas in runway incursion incidents.

  12. Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

  13. Causal effects of informal care and health on falls and other accidents among the elderly population in China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Hong; Lu, Naiji; Wang, Chenguang; Tu, Xinming

    2018-03-01

    This article analyzes the causal effects of informal care, mental health, and physical health on falls and other accidents (e.g., traffic accidents) among elderly people. We also examine if there are heterogeneous impacts on elderly of different gender, urban status, and past accident history. To purge potential reversal causal effects, e.g., past accidents induce more future informal care, we use two-stage least squares to identify the impacts. We use longitudinal data from a representative national China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study of people aged 45 and older in China. A total of 3935 respondents with two-wave data are included in our study. Each respondent is interviewed to measure health status and report their accident history. Mental health is assessed using CES-D questions. Our findings indicate that while informal care decreased the occurrence of accidents, poor health conditions increase the occurrence of accidents. We also find heterogeneous impacts on the occurrence of accidents, varying by gender, urban status, and past accident history. Our findings suggest the following three policy implications. First, policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care of elders into account. Second, ease of birth policy and postponed retirement policy are urgently needed to meet the demands of informal care. Third, medical policies should attach great importance not only to physical health but also mental health of elderly parents especially for older people with accident history.

  14. Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown Tehran city.

    PubMed

    Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zeini, Salahdien

    2017-01-01

    In most countries, occurrence of traffic causalities is high in pedestrians. The aim of this study is to geographically analyze the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown Tehran city. The study population consisted of traffic injury accidents in pedestrians occurred during 2015 in Tehran city. Data were extracted from offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, ordinary least square regression models and geographically weighted regression were used. Fitness and performance of models were checked using the Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, deviance, and adjusted R 2 . Totally, 514 accidents were included in this study. Of them, site of accidents was arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%), and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with a number of bus stations, number of crossroads, and recreational areas. Distribution of injury traffic accidents in pedestrians is different in downtown Tehran city. Neighborhoods close to markets are considered as most dangerous neighborhoods for injury traffic accidents. Different environmental factors are involved in determining the distribution of these accidents. The health of pedestrians in Tehran city can be improved by proper traffic management, control of environmental factors, and educational programs.

  15. Development of a methodology for accident causation research

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1983-06-01

    The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...

  16. Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown Tehran city

    PubMed Central

    Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zeini, Salahdien

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: In most countries, occurrence of traffic causalities is high in pedestrians. The aim of this study is to geographically analyze the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown Tehran city. Methods: The study population consisted of traffic injury accidents in pedestrians occurred during 2015 in Tehran city. Data were extracted from offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, ordinary least square regression models and geographically weighted regression were used. Fitness and performance of models were checked using the Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, deviance, and adjusted R2. Results: Totally, 514 accidents were included in this study. Of them, site of accidents was arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%), and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with a number of bus stations, number of crossroads, and recreational areas. Conclusion: Distribution of injury traffic accidents in pedestrians is different in downtown Tehran city. Neighborhoods close to markets are considered as most dangerous neighborhoods for injury traffic accidents. Different environmental factors are involved in determining the distribution of these accidents. The health of pedestrians in Tehran city can be improved by proper traffic management, control of environmental factors, and educational programs. PMID:28660163

  17. Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bentler, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

  18. Traffic Accidents Involving Cyclists Identifying Causal Factors Using Questionnaire Survey, Traffic Accident Data, and Real-World Observation.

    PubMed

    Oikawa, Shoko; Hirose, Toshiya; Aomura, Shigeru; Matsui, Yasuhiro

    2016-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to clarify the mechanism of traffic accidents involving cyclists. The focus is on the characteristics of cyclist accidents and scenarios, because the number of traffic accidents involving cyclists in Tokyo is the highest in Japan. First, dangerous situations in traffic incidents were investigated by collecting data from 304 cyclists in one city in Tokyo using a questionnaire survey. The survey indicated that cyclists used their bicycles generally while commuting to work or school in the morning. Second, the study investigated the characteristics of 250 accident situations involving cyclists that happened in the city using real-world bicycle accident data. The results revealed that the traffic accidents occurred at intersections of local streets, where cyclists collided most often with vehicles during commute time in the morning. Third, cyclists' behavior was observed at a local street intersection in the morning in the city using video pictures. In one hour during the morning commute period, 250 bicycles passed through the intersection. The results indicated that one of the reasons for traffic accidents involving cyclists might be the combined effect of low visibility, caused by the presence of box-like building structures close to the intersections, and the cyclists' behavior in terms of their velocity and no confirming safety. It was observed that, on average, bicycle velocity was 3.1 m/s at the initial line of an intersection. The findings from this study could be useful in developing new technologies to improve cyclist safety, such as alert devices for cyclists and vehicle drivers, wireless communication systems between cyclists and vehicle drivers, or advanced vehicles with bicycle detection and collision mitigation systems.

  19. Do claim factors predict health care utilization after transport accidents?

    PubMed

    Elbers, Nieke A; Cuijpers, Pim; Akkermans, Arno J; Collie, Alex; Ruseckaite, Rasa; Bruinvels, David J

    2013-04-01

    Injured people who are involved in compensation processes have less recovery and less well-being compared to those not involved in claims settlement procedures. This study investigated whether claim factors, such as no-fault versus common law claims, the number of independent medical assessments, and legal disputes, predict health care utilization after transport accidents. The sample consisted of 68,911 claimants who lodged a compensation claim at the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) in Victoria, Australia, between 2000 and 2005. The main outcome measure was health care utilization, which was defined as the number of visits to health care providers (e.g. general practitioners, physiotherapists, psychologists) during the 5 year period post-accident. After correction for gender, age, role in accident, injury type, and severity of injury, it was found that independent medical assessments were associated with greater health care utilization (β=.36, p<.001). Involvement in common law claims and legal disputes were both significantly related to health care utilization (respectively β=.05, p<.001 and β=-.02, p<.001), however, the standardized betas were negligible, therefore the effect is not clinically relevant. A model including claim factors predicted the number of health care visits significantly better (ΔR(2)=.08, p<.001) than a model including only gender, age, role in accident, injury type, and severity of injury. The positive association between the number of independent medical assessments and health care utilization after transport accidents may imply that numerous medical assessments have a negative effect on claimants' health. However, further research is needed to determine a causal relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Development of a bespoke human factors taxonomy for gliding accident analysis and its revelations about highly inexperienced UK glider pilots.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

    2009-08-01

    Low-hours solo glider pilots have a high risk of accidents compared to more experienced pilots. Numerous taxonomies for causal accident analysis have been produced for powered aviation but none of these is suitable for gliding, so a new taxonomy was required. A human factors taxonomy specifically for glider operations was developed and used to analyse all UK gliding accidents from 2002 to 2006 for their overall causes as well as factors specific to low hours pilots. Fifty-nine categories of pilot-related accident causation emerged, which were formed into progressively larger categories until four overall human factors groups were arrived at: 'judgement'; 'handling'; 'strategy'; 'attention'. 'Handling' accounted for a significantly higher proportion of injuries than other categories. Inexperienced pilots had considerably more accidents in all categories except 'strategy'. Approach control (path judgement, airbrake and speed handling) as well as landing flare misjudgement were chiefly responsible for the high accident rate in early solo glider pilots.

  1. Development of a bespoke human factors taxonomy for gliding accident analysis and its revelations about highly inexperienced UK glider pilots.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

    2010-02-01

    Low-hours solo glider pilots have a high risk of accidents compared to more experienced pilots. Numerous taxonomies for causal accident analysis have been produced for powered aviation but none of these is suitable for gliding, so a new taxonomy was required. A human factors taxonomy specifically for glider operations was developed and used to analyse all UK gliding accidents from 2002 to 2006 for their overall causes as well as factors specific to low hours pilots. Fifty-nine categories of pilot-related accident causation emerged, which were formed into progressively larger categories until four overall human factors groups were arrived at: 'judgement'; 'handling'; 'strategy'; 'attention'. 'Handling' accounted for a significantly higher proportion of injuries than other categories. Inexperienced pilots had considerably more accidents in all categories except 'strategy'. Approach control (path judgement, airbrake and speed handling) as well as landing flare misjudgement were chiefly responsible for the high accident rate in early solo glider pilots. Statement of Relevance: This paper uses extant accident data to produce a taxonomy of underlying human factors causes to analyse gliding accidents and identify the specific causes associated with low hours pilots. From this specific, well-targeted remedial measures can be identified.

  2. The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

    2015-01-01

    The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

  3. The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

    2016-01-01

    The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilot's taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that, rather than events following the pilot's switch to direct control, it was the events preceding the switch that led to the accident. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

  4. Occupational safety management: the role of causal attribution.

    PubMed

    Gyekye, Seth Ayim

    2010-12-01

    The paper addresses the causal attribution theory, an old and well-established theme in social psychology which denotes the everyday, commonsense explanations that people use to explain events and the world around them. The attribution paradigm is considered one of the most appropriate analytical tools for exploratory and descriptive studies in social psychology and organizational literature. It affords the possibility of describing accident processes as objectively as possible and with as much detail as possible. Causal explanations are vital to the formal analysis of workplace hazards and accidents, as they determine how organizations act to prevent accident recurrence. Accordingly, they are regarded as fundamental and prerequisite elements for safety management policies. The paper focuses primarily on the role of causal attributions in occupational and industrial accident analyses and implementation of safety interventions. It thus serves as a review of the contribution of attribution theory to occupational and industrial accidents. It comprises six sections. The first section presents an introduction to the classic attribution theories, and the second an account of the various ways in which the attribution paradigm has been applied in organizational settings. The third and fourth sections review the literature on causal attributions and demographic and organizational variables respectively. The sources of attributional biases in social psychology and how they manifest and are identified in the causal explanations for industrial and occupational accidents are treated in the fifth section. Finally, conclusion and recommendations are presented. The recommendations are particularly important for the reduction of workplace accidents and associated costs. The paper touches on the need for unbiased causal analyses, belief in the preventability of accidents, and the imperative role of management in occupational safety management.

  5. Human Factors in Cabin Accident Investigations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chute, Rebecca D.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Human factors has become an integral part of the accident investigation protocol. However, much of the investigative process remains focussed on the flight deck, airframe, and power plant systems. As a consequence, little data has been collected regarding the human factors issues within and involving the cabin during an accident. Therefore, the possibility exists that contributing factors that lie within that domain may be overlooked. The FAA Office of Accident Investigation is sponsoring a two-day workshop on cabin safety accident investigation. This course, within the workshop, will be of two hours duration and will explore relevant areas of human factors research. Specifically, the three areas of discussion are: Information transfer and resource management, fatigue and other physical stressors, and the human/machine interface. Integration of these areas will be accomplished by providing a suggested checklist of specific cabin-related human factors questions for investigators to probe following an accident.

  6. Future Integrated Systems Concept for Preventing Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Jacobson, Steven r.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to aircraft fatal accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are highly complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper presents future system concepts and research directions for preventing aircraft loss-of-control accidents.

  7. Inadequate Self-Discipline as a Causal Factor in Human Error Accidents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-03-01

    reasons for the effectiveness of the stimuli or incentives used are unknown. Moreover, Gebers and Peck (1987) conclude on the basis of a random sample...Research. 13, 141-156. 234 Gebers , M. A., & Peck, R. C. (1987). Basic California traffic conviction and accident record facts. (Report No. CAL-DMV- RSS

  8. [Multi-causality in nursing work accidents with biological material].

    PubMed

    Soares, Leticia Gramazio; Sarquis, Leila Maria Mansano; Kirchhof, Ana Lúcia Cardoso; Felli, Vanda Elisa Andres

    2013-12-01

    In order to analyze the multiple causes of occupational accidents with biological exposure among nursing staff was carried out a descriptive and exploratory research in a medium-sized hospital in the State of Paraná, in the period between January 2008 and January 2009. The population was 26 nursing staff of the medical clinic. Data collection was performed by semi-structured interviews with five of the eight injured in the period and its contents were analyzed by Causes and Effects Diagram. The categories of causes material, organizational, institutional and worker's behavior, showed the inappropriate disposal of sharps, work overload, no use of bio-security standards and poor supervision and training of workers, as factors for the occurrence of these accidents. The adoption of the tool of Causes and Effects Diagram provided an analysis of accidents in its multiple causes, showing the interaction between them.

  9. A Technique for Showing Causal Arguments in Accident Reports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2005-01-01

    In the prototypical accident report, specific findings, particularly those related to causes and contributing factors, are usually written out explicitly and clearly. Also, the evidence upon which these findings are based is typically explained in detail. Often lacking, however, is any explicit discussion, description, or depiction of the arguments that connect the findings and the evidence. That is, the reports do not make clear why the investigators believe that the specific evidence they found necessarily leads to the particular findings they enumerated. This paper shows how graphical techniques can be used to depict relevant arguments supporting alternate positions on the causes of a complex road-traffic accident.

  10. The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Nakamura, Asako J; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M; Fukumoto, Manabu

    2017-05-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocytofluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident.

  11. Summary of 1968-1970 multidisciplinary accident investigation reports. Volume 2

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1972-08-01

    In June 1971, Volume 1 of a two-volume series summarizing the causal factors, conclusions and recommendations which emanated from various in-depth accident reports was published. This first volume contained a listing of these factors according to tea...

  12. The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Nakamura, Asako J.; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E.; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M.; Fukumoto, Manabu

    2017-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocyto-fluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident. PMID:28240558

  13. Studying work practices: a key factor in understanding accidents on the level triggered by a balance disturbance.

    PubMed

    Derosier, C; Leclercq, S; Rabardel, P; Langa, P

    2008-12-01

    Accidents on the level (AOL) rank second amongst the most numerous and serious occupational accidents with days lost in France and are a major health and safety problem in every sector of activity. The case study described in this paper was conducted at a metallurgical company with 300 employees. The aims of this work were dual: 1) to extend the general knowledge required for preventing these accidents; 2) to propose prevention measures to this company. Existing data on company occupational accidents were gathered and analysed to identify a work situation that appeared likely to cause AOL. This work situation was analysed in detail. Several risk factors were identified within this work situation, by way of interviews with 12 operators. These risk factors concerned various dimensions of the work situation, particularly its physical dimension (e.g. templates structure) and organisational dimension (e.g. parts availability). Interviews were conducted, focusing on risk factors perceived by operators and involving allo-confrontations based on accounts of four AOL occurring in this situation. Allo-confrontations were interviews confronting operators with a risk occupational situation that was accidental for one of their colleagues, the latter being absent from the interview. Results highlighted the fact that the work practices implemented are key factors in understanding these accidents. This study underlines the role of work practices in AOL causality and prevention. It also provides explanations associated with various work situation dimensions involving adoption of more or less safe work practices. AOL are serious and frequent in occupational situations. Injury claims analysis and interviews in an industrial company emphasise the specific characteristics of an occupational situation and of prevention actions forming the basis of an intervention. The need for a better understanding of factors affecting work practice is highlighted in relation to research.

  14. Human error analysis of commercial aviation accidents: application of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification system (HFACS).

    PubMed

    Wiegmann, D A; Shappell, S A

    2001-11-01

    The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is a general human error framework originally developed and tested within the U.S. military as a tool for investigating and analyzing the human causes of aviation accidents. Based on Reason's (1990) model of latent and active failures, HFACS addresses human error at all levels of the system, including the condition of aircrew and organizational factors. The purpose of the present study was to assess the utility of the HFACS framework as an error analysis and classification tool outside the military. The HFACS framework was used to analyze human error data associated with aircrew-related commercial aviation accidents that occurred between January 1990 and December 1996 using database records maintained by the NTSB and the FAA. Investigators were able to reliably accommodate all the human causal factors associated with the commercial aviation accidents examined in this study using the HFACS system. In addition, the classification of data using HFACS highlighted several critical safety issues in need of intervention research. These results demonstrate that the HFACS framework can be a viable tool for use within the civil aviation arena. However, additional research is needed to examine its applicability to areas outside the flight deck, such as aircraft maintenance and air traffic control domains.

  15. A Qualitative Study on Organizational Factors Affecting Occupational Accidents.

    PubMed

    Eskandari, Davood; Jafari, Mohammad Javad; Mehrabi, Yadollah; Kian, Mostafa Pouya; Charkhand, Hossein; Mirghotbi, Mostafa

    2017-03-01

    Technical, human, operational and organizational factors have been influencing the sequence of occupational accidents. Among them, organizational factors play a major role in causing occupational accidents. The aim of this research was to understand the Iranian safety experts' experiences and perception of organizational factors. This qualitative study was conducted in 2015 by using the content analysis technique. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 17 safety experts working in Iranian universities and industries and analyzed with a conventional qualitative content analysis method using the MAXQDA software. Eleven organizational factors' sub-themes were identified: management commitment, management participation, employee involvement, communication, blame culture, education and training, job satisfaction, interpersonal relationship, supervision, continuous improvement, and reward system. The participants considered these factors as effective on occupational accidents. The mentioned 11 organizational factors are probably involved in occupational accidents in Iran. Naturally, improving organizational factors can increase the safety performance and reduce occupational accidents.

  16. Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

    2017-07-01

    Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

  17. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark.

    PubMed

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-02-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Nevertheless, research on the behaviour and accident involvement of young moped riders remains sparse. Based on analysis of 128 accident protocols, the purpose of this study was to increase knowledge about moped accidents. The study was performed in Denmark involving riders aged 16 or 17. A distinction was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved, attention error (52%) was the most frequently assigned accident factor. The majority (78%) of the accidents involved road rule breaching on the part of the moped rider. The results indicate that preventive measures should aim to eliminate violations and increase anticipatory skills among moped riders and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Qualitative Study on Organizational Factors Affecting Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    ESKANDARI, Davood; JAFARI, Mohammad Javad; MEHRABI, Yadollah; KIAN, Mostafa Pouya; CHARKHAND, Hossein; MIRGHOTBI, Mostafa

    2017-01-01

    Background: Technical, human, operational and organizational factors have been influencing the sequence of occupational accidents. Among them, organizational factors play a major role in causing occupational accidents. The aim of this research was to understand the Iranian safety experts’ experiences and perception of organizational factors. Methods: This qualitative study was conducted in 2015 by using the content analysis technique. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 17 safety experts working in Iranian universities and industries and analyzed with a conventional qualitative content analysis method using the MAXQDA software. Results: Eleven organizational factors’ sub-themes were identified: management commitment, management participation, employee involvement, communication, blame culture, education and training, job satisfaction, interpersonal relationship, supervision, continuous improvement, and reward system. The participants considered these factors as effective on occupational accidents. Conclusion: The mentioned 11 organizational factors are probably involved in occupational accidents in Iran. Naturally, improving organizational factors can increase the safety performance and reduce occupational accidents. PMID:28435824

  19. FACTORS AFFECTING ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN BENGHAZI, LIBYA

    PubMed Central

    Al-Ghaweel, Ibrahim; Mursi, Saleh A.; Jack, Joel P.; Joel, Irene

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate the factors responsible for road traffic accidents in Benghazi. Material and Methods: Retrospective and descriptive studies were done in the years 2006-2007. The data was collected from Traffic and License Department, Benghazi. The data were analyzed, based on fatalities, the severely handicapped, hit and run victims and were correlated with age, sex, time, environmental factors, type of roads, etc. Results: One-Thousand-Two-Hundred-Sixty-Five accidents occurred between the years 2006-2007 within the Benghazi city limits; 11.14% of the injuries were fatal; 67.35% of the victims had severe injuries and 21.51% escaped with minor injuries. Table 1 shows that 73.04% lost their lives within the city limits, 13.47% on the fly-over, and 2.12% on minor roads connected to main roads within the city limits. The mean of the accidents and its standard deviation were 16.66± 25.67 with a variance of fatality of 1.54. Conclusion: It is concluded from the studies that major road traffic accidents occur because of environmental stress factors. In addition, fatalities and the seriousness of the accidents depend on a number of factors such as the age of the vehicle, safety measures, human error and time and place of accident. PMID:23012183

  20. Medical and toxicological factors in aircraft accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1980-04-01

    A number of factors operating within pilots may impair their ability to operate aircraft in a safe manner, thus accounting for some of the 83 to 87 percent of pilot 'causes' of general aviation accidents. Aircraft accident investigators should be att...

  1. Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

  2. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold

  3. Indonesian railway accidents--utilizing Human Factors Analysis and Classification System in determining potential contributing factors.

    PubMed

    Iridiastadi, Hardianto; Ikatrinasari, Zulfa Fitri

    2012-01-01

    The prevalence of Indonesian railway accidents has not been declining, with hundreds of fatalities reported in the past decade. As an effort to help the National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC), this study was conducted that aimed at understanding factors that might have contributed to the accidents. Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) was utilized for this purpose. A total of nine accident reports (provided by the Indonesian NTSC) involving fatalities were studied using the technique. Results of this study indicated 72 factors that were closely related to the accidents. Of these, roughly 22% were considered as operator acts while about 39% were related to preconditions for operator acts. Supervisory represented 14% of the factors, and the remaining (about 25%) were associated with organizational factors. It was concluded that, while train drivers indeed played an important role in the accidents, interventions solely directed toward train drivers may not be adequate. A more comprehensive approach in minimizing the accidents should be conducted that addresses all the four aspects of HFACS.

  4. Risk factors for injury accidents among moped and motorcycle riders.

    PubMed

    Moskal, Aurélie; Martin, Jean-Louis; Laumon, Bernard

    2012-11-01

    To study and quantify the effect of factors related to the riders of powered two-wheelers on the risk of injury accident involvement. Based on national data held by the police from 1996 to 2005, we conducted a case-control study with responsibility for the accident as the event of interest. We estimated the odds ratios for accident responsibility. Making the hypothesis that the non-responsible riders in the study are representative of all the riders on the road, we thus identified risk factors for being responsible for injury accidents. The studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, validity of the subject's driving licence and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Moped and motorcycle riders are analyzed separately, adjusting for the main characteristics of the accident. For both moped and motorcycle riders, being male, not wearing a helmet, exceeding the legal limit for alcohol and travelling for leisure purposes increased the risk of accident involvement. The youngest and oldest users had a greater risk of accident involvement. The largest risk factor was alcohol, and we identified a dose-effect relationship between alcohol consumption and accident risk, with an estimated odds ratio of over 10 for motorcycle and moped riders with a BAC of 2 g/l or over. Among motorcycle users, riders without a licence had twice the risk of being involved in an accident than those holding a valid licence. However, the number of years the rider had held a licence reduced the risk of accident involvement. One difference between moped and motorcycle riders involved the presence of a passenger on the vehicle: while carrying a passenger increased the risk of being responsible for the accident among moped riders, it protected against this risk among motorcycle riders. This analysis of responsibility has identified the major factors contributing to excess risk of injury accidents, some of which could be

  5. Factors associated with the severity of fatal accidents in construction workers

    PubMed Central

    Khodabandeh, Farideh; Kabir-Mokamelkhah, Elaheh; Kahani, Mahsa

    2016-01-01

    Background: Construction work (building houses, roads, workplaces, and repairing and maintaining infrastructures) is a dangerous land-based job. This includes many hazardous tasks and conditions such as working at the following conditions: Height, excavation, noise, dust, power tools and equipment. Construction work has been increased in developed and underdeveloped countries over the past few years. Occupational fatalities have increased with an increase in this type of work. Occupational fatalities refer to individuals who pass way while on the job or performing work related tasks. In the present study, to identify the factors, personal characteristics and work-related factors associated with fatal occupational mortality were assessed using data for Tehran, Iran, 2014-2016. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study, using 967 postmortem reports from fatal occupational injuries collected through postmortem investigations during 2014-2016. A sampling frame of 967 postmortem reports from fatal occupational injuries was used to draw a total sample of 714 fatal construction accidents for this cross-sectional study. Pearson χ2 test and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: Based on the results of this study, male gender (n=714; 100%), age range of 30-39 years (n=183; 25.6%), secondary educational level (n=273; 38.2%), being married (317; 44.4%), causal employee (n=389; 54.5%), unskilled performance (389; 54.5%), no insurance coverage (472; 66.1%), and daytime duty work (287; 40.2%) were identified as risk factors for fatality in the event of construction fatal injury. A significant relationship was found between the type of injury and sociodemographic and work related variables. Conclusion: Workers’ characteristics such as age, gender, experience, and educational background, and work related variables such as skill training, safety measurement, and close monitoring could be used to discriminate among different severity levels of

  6. Factors associated with the severity of fatal accidents in construction workers.

    PubMed

    Khodabandeh, Farideh; Kabir-Mokamelkhah, Elaheh; Kahani, Mahsa

    2016-01-01

    Background: Construction work (building houses, roads, workplaces, and repairing and maintaining infrastructures) is a dangerous land-based job. This includes many hazardous tasks and conditions such as working at the following conditions: Height, excavation, noise, dust, power tools and equipment. Construction work has been increased in developed and underdeveloped countries over the past few years. Occupational fatalities have increased with an increase in this type of work. Occupational fatalities refer to individuals who pass way while on the job or performing work related tasks. In the present study, to identify the factors, personal characteristics and work-related factors associated with fatal occupational mortality were assessed using data for Tehran, Iran, 2014-2016. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study, using 967 postmortem reports from fatal occupational injuries collected through postmortem investigations during 2014-2016. A sampling frame of 967 postmortem reports from fatal occupational injuries was used to draw a total sample of 714 fatal construction accidents for this cross-sectional study. Pearson χ2 test and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: Based on the results of this study, male gender (n=714; 100%), age range of 30-39 years (n=183; 25.6%), secondary educational level (n=273; 38.2%), being married (317; 44.4%), causal employee (n=389; 54.5%), unskilled performance (389; 54.5%), no insurance coverage (472; 66.1%), and daytime duty work (287; 40.2%) were identified as risk factors for fatality in the event of construction fatal injury. A significant relationship was found between the type of injury and sociodemographic and work related variables. Conclusion: Workers' characteristics such as age, gender, experience, and educational background, and work related variables such as skill training, safety measurement, and close monitoring could be used to discriminate among different severity levels of

  7. Type A Accident Investigation Board report on the January 17, 1996, electrical accident with injury in Technical Area 21 Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    1996-04-01

    An electrical accident was investigated in which a crafts person received serious injuries as a result of coming into contact with a 13.2 kilovolt (kV) electrical cable in the basement of Building 209 in Technical Area 21 (TA-21-209) in the Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility (TSFF) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In conducting its investigation, the Accident Investigation Board used various analytical techniques, including events and causal factor analysis, barrier analysis, change analysis, fault tree analysis, materials analysis, and root cause analysis. The board inspected the accident site, reviewed events surrounding the accident, conducted extensive interviews and document reviews,more » and performed causation analyses to determine the factors that contributed to the accident, including any management system deficiencies. Relevant management systems and factors that could have contributed to the accident were evaluated in accordance with the guiding principles of safety management identified by the Secretary of Energy in an October 1994 letter to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board and subsequently to Congress.« less

  8. Stable Causal Relationships Are Better Causal Relationships.

    PubMed

    Vasilyeva, Nadya; Blanchard, Thomas; Lombrozo, Tania

    2018-05-01

    We report three experiments investigating whether people's judgments about causal relationships are sensitive to the robustness or stability of such relationships across a range of background circumstances. In Experiment 1, we demonstrate that people are more willing to endorse causal and explanatory claims based on stable (as opposed to unstable) relationships, even when the overall causal strength of the relationship is held constant. In Experiment 2, we show that this effect is not driven by a causal generalization's actual scope of application. In Experiment 3, we offer evidence that stable causal relationships may be seen as better guides to action. Collectively, these experiments document a previously underappreciated factor that shapes people's causal reasoning: the stability of the causal relationship. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  9. Distribution of Causes in Selected US Aviation Accident Reports Between 1996 and 2003

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

  10. Risk factors of fatal occupational accidents in Iran.

    PubMed

    Asady, Hadi; Yaseri, Mehdi; Hosseini, Mostafa; Zarif-Yeganeh, Morvarid; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Haghshenas, Mahin; Hajizadeh-Moghadam, Parisa

    2018-01-01

    Occupational accidents are of most important consequences of globalization in developing countries. Therefore, investigating the causes of occupational accidents for improving the job situation and making operational policy is necessary. So the aim of this study was to investigate factors affecting the fatal occupational accidents and also calculate the years of life lost for dead workers. This cross-sectional study was conducted on data related to the 6052 injured workers that was registered in the 2013 registry system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran. Variables including sex, education, age, job tenure, injury cause, referred location of injured workers, occupation, shift work, season, accident day, damaged part of the body were chosen as independent variables. The Chi-squared and Fisher exact tests were used for univariate analysis and then exact multiple logistic regression was carried out to identify independent risk factors of fatal occupational accidents. Finally, for dead workers, years of life lost, according to the injury causes was calculated. Among the 6052 accidents reported, 33 deaths were recorded. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests showed that factors including: current job tenure ( p  = 0.01), damaged parts of the body ( p  < 0.001) and injury cause ( p  < 0.001) are associated with the fatal accidents. Also exact multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between electric shocks as a cause of injury (OR = 7.04; 95% CI: 1.01-43.74; p  = 0.02) and current job tenure more than 1 year (OR = 0.21; 95% CI: 0.05-0.70; p  = 0.005) with the fatal accidents. The total amount of years of life lost based on causes of injuries was estimated 1289.12 years. In Iran, fatal accident odds in workers with job tenure more than 1 year was less in comparing to the workers with job tenure less and equal to 1 year. Also odd of death for electrical shock was more than other causes of injuries. So it seems

  11. Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

  12. [Factors associated with road accidents in the city of Lubumbashi].

    PubMed

    Kandolo, Simon Ilunga; Matungulu, Charles Matungulu; Mukanya, Pascal Kimba; Umba, Irène Kabange; Kabamba, Julie Ndayi; Numbi, Oscar Luboya; Ilunga, Benjamin Kabyla; Kaj, Françoise Malonga; Lubaba, Célestin Banza; Ngongo, Ghislain Mashini

    2014-01-01

    We conducted a retrospective non-comparative cross-sectional study in Lubumbashi on factors associated with road accidents. To contribute to the reduction of morbidity and mortality related to road accidents based on a better understanding of this phenomenon in the city of Lubumbashi, to assess the frequency and the growth of road accidents in the city of Lubumbashi and to determine the factors predisposing to these accidents. This non-controlled retrospective cross-sectional descriptive study covered the period from 1st January to 31st December 2008, and included all cases of vehicles registered by the police department after an accident. A total of 1,915 road traffic were reported, mostly caused by public transport vehicles (59%) driven by young adult males (89% of cases) with a mean age of 28 years. The main cause was speeding combined with other factors (34% of cases). The majority of these accidents occurred in the city of Lubumbashi (52.9% of cases) between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. (74% of cases). Transit vehicles were exposed to a greater risk of road accidents (59%). There is an urgent need for accurate information on the rules of the road for drivers and road users to reduce the mortality and morbidity due to road accidents.

  13. Factors Associated with Road Accidents among Brazilian Motorcycle Couriers

    PubMed Central

    da Silva, Daniela Wosiack; de Andrade, Selma Maffei; Soares, Dorotéia Fátima Pelissari de Paula; Mathias, Thais Aidar de Freitas; Matsuo, Tiemi; de Souza, Regina Kazue Tanno

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the study was to identify factors associated with reports of road accidents, among motorcycle couriers in two medium-sized municipalities in southern Brazil. A self-administered questionnaire was answered by motorcycle couriers that had worked for at least 12 months in this profession. The outcomes analyzed were reports on accidents and serious accidents over the 12 months prior to the survey. Bivariate and multivariate analyses by means of logistic regression were carried out to investigate factors that were independently associated with the outcomes. Seven hundred and fifty motorcycle couriers, of mean age 29.5 years (standard deviation = 8.1 ), were included in the study. Young age (18 to 24 years compared to ≥25 years, odds ratio [OR] = 1.77) speeding (OR = 1.48), and use of cell phones while driving (OR = 1.43) were factors independently associated with reports of accidents. For serious accidents, there was an association with alternation of work shifts (OR = 1.91) and speeding (OR = 1.67). The characteristics associated with accidents—personal (young age), behavioral (use of cell phones while driving and speeding), and professional (speeding and alternation of work shifts)—reveal the need to adopt wide-ranging strategies to reduce these accidents, including better work conditions for these motorcyclists. PMID:22629158

  14. Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H.M.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P.; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S.; de Bruijn, Renée F.A.G.; Willems, Sara M.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G.; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S.; Moreno, Luis A.; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W.G.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H.; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Franco, Oscar H.; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S.; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Whitfield, John B.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D.; Magnusson, Patrik K.; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Nilsson, Peter M.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P.; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I.

    2015-01-01

    Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10−107) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10−30). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:25712996

  15. What are the factors that contribute to road accidents? An assessment of law enforcement views, ordinary drivers' opinions, and road accident records.

    PubMed

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Regev, Shirley; Moutari, Salissou; Feeney, Aidan

    2018-06-01

    What are the main contributing factors to road accidents? Factors such as inexperience, lack of skill, and risk-taking behaviors have been associated with the collisions of young drivers. In contrast, visual, cognitive, and mobility impairment have been associated with the collisions of older drivers. We investigated the main causes of road accidents by drawing on multiple sources: expert views of police officers, lay views of the driving public, and official road accident records. In Studies 1 and 2, police officers and the public were asked about the typical causes of road traffic collisions using hypothetical accident scenarios. In Study 3, we investigated whether the views of police officers and the public about accident causation influence their recall accuracy for factors reported to contribute to hypothetical road accidents. The results show that both expert views of police officers and lay views of the driving public closely approximated the typical factors associated with the collisions of young and older drivers, as determined from official accident records. The results also reveal potential underreporting of factors in existing accident records, identifying possible inadequacies in law enforcement practices for investigating driver distraction, drug and alcohol impairment, and uncorrected or defective eyesight. Our investigation also highlights a need for accident report forms to be continuously reviewed and updated to ensure that contributing factor lists reflect the full range of factors that contribute to road accidents. Finally, the views held by police officers and the public on accident causation influenced their memory recall of factors involved in hypothetical scenarios. These findings indicate that delay in completing accident report forms should be minimised, possibly by use of mobile reporting devices at the accident scene. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Anthropotechnological analysis of industrial accidents in Brazil.

    PubMed Central

    Binder, M. C.; de Almeida, I. M.; Monteau, M.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Ministry of Labour has been attempting to modify the norms used to analyse industrial accidents in the country. For this purpose, in 1994 it tried to make compulsory use of the causal tree approach to accident analysis, an approach developed in France during the 1970s, without having previously determined whether it is suitable for use under the industrial safety conditions that prevail in most Brazilian firms. In addition, opposition from Brazilian employers has blocked the proposed changes to the norms. The present study employed anthropotechnology to analyse experimental application of the causal tree method to work-related accidents in industrial firms in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo. Three work-related accidents were examined in three industrial firms representative of local, national and multinational companies. On the basis of the accidents analysed in this study, the rationale for the use of the causal tree method in Brazil can be summarized for each type of firm as follows: the method is redundant if there is a predominance of the type of risk whose elimination or neutralization requires adoption of conventional industrial safety measures (firm representative of local enterprises); the method is worth while if the company's specific technical risks have already largely been eliminated (firm representative of national enterprises); and the method is particularly appropriate if the firm has a good safety record and the causes of accidents are primarily related to industrial organization and management (multinational enterprise). PMID:10680249

  17. Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Chris W.; Oltedal, H. A.; Holloway, C. M.

    2012-01-01

    Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

  18. Zagreb and Tenerife: Airline Accidents Involving Linguistic Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cookson, Simon

    2009-01-01

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is currently implementing a program to improve the language proficiency of pilots and air traffic controllers worldwide. In justifying the program, ICAO has cited a number of airline accidents that were at least partly caused by language factors. Two accidents cited by ICAO are analysed in this…

  19. Factors Affecting Road Traffic Accident in Batu Pahat, Johor, Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Che-Him, Norziha; Roslan, Rozaini; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Khalid, Kamil; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Azbi Arobi, Farquis; Mohamad, Nazeera

    2018-04-01

    A road traffic accident resulted from the combination of factors related to the few components of the system involving environment, roads, road users, vehicles and the interaction between those systems. Road traffic accident (RTA) in Malaysia recorded as the highest fatality rate (per 100,000 population) among the ASEAN countries. In 2016, more than half of million cases accident recorded with more than 7,000 people were killed. Therefore, the RTA is one of the most critical issue in Malaysia even become the worldwide burden to authority. Generally, driving is a complex process which involves movement of a vehicle by either a computer or human controller. However, failure to control and coordinate will contribute to an accident. The objective of this study is to identify the pattern of accident in Johor Malaysia and to examine the relationship between the number of accident and the types of vehicles and roads. The results could help the government to recognise the different patterns, types of vehicles and roads that show major factors in the increasing of road traffic accident in Malaysia.

  20. General aviation accidents, 1983-1994 : identification of factors related to controlled-flight-into-terrain (CFIT) accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-07-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the characteristics of general aviation (GA) accidents and to identify factors : related to the occurrence of controlled-flight-into-terrain (CFIT) accidents in GA. : This study used the National Transportati...

  1. Alcohol is the main factor in excess traffic accident fatalities in France.

    PubMed

    Reynaud, Michel; Le Breton, Patrick; Gilot, Bertrand; Vervialle, Françoise; Falissard, Bruno

    2002-12-01

    The aim of this study was to better evaluate the role of alcohol drinking in fatalities linked to road traffic accidents. The data of accidents were collected by a French official agency from police records, including many variables, among which was a blood alcohol test. They were analyzed in a descriptive way and toward a logistic regression. This exhaustive database comprised all of the 500,961 accidents with casualties that involved less than three vehicles (28,506 fatal accidents) recorded in France during a 52 month period (September 1995 to December 1999). The results of the alcohol tests were known in 78.7 of the drivers. The blood alcohol concentration was over the legal limit (0.50 g/L in France) in 9.8% of the accidents with casualties overall. Considering only fatal accidents, the rate of positive alcohol test in drivers was approximately 31.5%. This rate varied depending on the period and the type of accident, raising up to 71.2% in single-vehicle accidents (loss of control) at night during the weekend. The percentage of positive alcohol tests also dramatically increased following the number of fatalities per accident (87.5% in single-vehicle accidents during weekend nights involving three or more killed). The logistic regression in single-vehicle accident shows that the higher odds ratios concern the positive blood alcohol test (OR = 4.19), clearly overwhelming the other precipitating factors of accidents (age of driver, meteorological conditions, time of day, and other factors). Drinking alcohol before driving is a well known factor of accidents. We clearly demonstrate here that it is the main factor leading to deaths linked to road traffic accidents in France. The results are strengthened, and some analyses are allowed, by the exceptional features of our database. The authors emphasize the need for prevention measures.

  2. Evaluation of near-miss and adverse events in radiation oncology using a comprehensive causal factor taxonomy.

    PubMed

    Spraker, Matthew B; Fain, Robert; Gopan, Olga; Zeng, Jing; Nyflot, Matthew; Jordan, Loucille; Kane, Gabrielle; Ford, Eric

    Incident learning systems (ILSs) are a popular strategy for improving safety in radiation oncology (RO) clinics, but few reports focus on the causes of errors in RO. The goal of this study was to test a causal factor taxonomy developed in 2012 by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine and adopted for use in the RO: Incident Learning System (RO-ILS). Three hundred event reports were randomly selected from an institutional ILS database and Safety in Radiation Oncology (SAFRON), an international ILS. The reports were split into 3 groups of 100 events each: low-risk institutional, high-risk institutional, and SAFRON. Three raters retrospectively analyzed each event for contributing factors using the American Association of Physicists in Medicine taxonomy. No events were described by a single causal factor (median, 7). The causal factor taxonomy was found to be applicable for all events, but 4 causal factors were not described in the taxonomy: linear accelerator failure (n = 3), hardware/equipment failure (n = 2), failure to follow through with a quality improvement intervention (n = 1), and workflow documentation was misleading (n = 1). The most common causal factor categories contributing to events were similar in all event types. The most common specific causal factor to contribute to events was a "slip causing physical error." Poor human factors engineering was the only causal factor found to contribute more frequently to high-risk institutional versus low-risk institutional events. The taxonomy in the study was found to be applicable for all events and may be useful in root cause analyses and future studies. Communication and human behaviors were the most common errors affecting all types of events. Poor human factors engineering was found to specifically contribute to high-risk more than low-risk institutional events, and may represent a strategy for reducing errors in all types of events. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Radiation Oncology

  3. An Examination of Commercial Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Thomas, Megan A.; Evans, Joni K.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2011-01-01

    The Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project is one of the four projects within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSafe). The IVHM Project conducts research to develop validated tools and technologies for automated detection, diagnosis, and prognosis that enable mitigation of adverse events during flight. Adverse events include those that arise from system, subsystem, or component failure, faults, and malfunctions due to damage, degradation, or environmental hazards that occur during flight. Determining the causal factors and adverse events related to IVHM technologies will help in the formulation of research requirements and establish a list of example adverse conditions against which IVHM technologies can be evaluated. This paper documents the results of an examination of the most recent statistical/prognostic accident and incident data that is available from the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) System to determine the causal factors of system/component failures and/or malfunctions in U.S. commercial aviation accidents and incidents.

  4. Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor (AMF): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-08-01

    AD Award Number: DAMD17-02-1-0586 TITLE: Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor ( AMF ): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia PRINCIPAL...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor ( AMF ): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia 5b. GRANT NUMBER DAM D1 7-02-1-0586 5c...quality of life and postpone mortality. We proposed that autocrine motility factor ( AMF ) is released into the bloodstream from cancer sites and

  5. Age- and sex-specific causal effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors.

    PubMed

    Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H M; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S; de Bruijn, Renée F A G; Willems, Sara M; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S; Moreno, Luis A; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W G; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Ikram, M Arfan; Franco, Oscar H; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D; Penninx, Brenda W; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J; Montgomery, Grant W; Whitfield, John B; Martin, Nicholas G; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D; Magnusson, Patrik K; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I; Nilsson, Peter M; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I; Ingelsson, Erik

    2015-05-01

    Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  6. New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

    2005-01-01

    Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

  7. Tri-level study of the causes of traffic accidents. Volume 1, Causal factor tabulations and assessments

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-03-31

    This is the Final Report of the "Tri-Level Study of the Causes of Traffic Accidents," performed by the Indiana University Institute for Research in Public Safety (IRPS), under contract to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (Contract N...

  8. A summary of unmanned aircraft accident/incident data : human factors implications

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2004-12-01

    A review and analysis of unmanned aircraft (UA) accident data was conducted to identify important human factors issues related to their use. UA accident data were collected from the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force. Classification of the accident data ...

  9. [Factors associated with work-related accidents in the informal commercial sector].

    PubMed

    Rios, Marcela Andrade; Nery, Adriana Alves; Rios, Polianna Alves Andrade; Casotti, Cezar Augusto; Cardoso, Jefferson Paixão

    2015-06-01

    This study aimed to estimate the incidence of non-fatal work-related accidents in the informal commercial sector and analyze associated socio-demographic, occupational, workplace, and health factors, in a cross-sectional survey of 434 workers in the business district of Jequié, Bahia State, Brazil, in 2013. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with accidents. Incidence of accidents in the previous 12 months was estimated at 32.3%, and multivariate analysis showed higher odds of accidents in male sex workers (OR = 1.61), young individuals (OR = 4.62), meat or poultry workers (OR = 9.55), and workers performing heavy physical work (OR = 1.71). The results show the need for public policies to prevent accidents in the informal commercial sector.

  10. Understanding factors associated with misclassification of fatigue-related accidents in police record.

    PubMed

    Li, Yanyan; Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Zhang, Guangnan

    2018-02-01

    Fatigue is one of the riskiest causes of traffic accidents threatening road safety. Due to lack of proper criteria, the identification of fatigue-related accidents by police officers largely depends on inferential evidence and their own experience. As a result, many fatigue-related accidents are misclassified and the harmfulness of fatigue on road safety is misestimated. In this paper, a joint model framework is introduced to analyze factors contributing to misclassification of a fatigue-related accident in police reports. Association rule data mining technique is employed to identify the potential interactions of factors, and logistic regression models are applied to analyze factors that hinder police officers' identification of fatigue-related accidents. Using the fatigue-related crash records from Guangdong Province during 2005-2014, factors contributing to the false positive and false negative detection of the fatigue-related accident have been identified and compared. Some variables and interactions were identified to have significant impacts on fatigue-related accident detection. Based on the results, it can be inferred that the stereotype of certain groups of drivers, crash types, and roadway conditions affects police officers' judgment on fatigue-related accidents. This finding can provide useful information for training police officers and build better criteria for fatigue identification. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Stephen; Scott, Robert A; Timpson, Nicholas J; Davey Smith, George; Thompson, Simon G

    2015-07-01

    Finding individual-level data for adequately-powered Mendelian randomization analyses may be problematic. As publicly-available summarized data on genetic associations with disease outcomes from large consortia are becoming more abundant, use of published data is an attractive analysis strategy for obtaining precise estimates of the causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. We detail the necessary steps for conducting Mendelian randomization investigations using published data, and present novel statistical methods for combining data on the associations of multiple (correlated or uncorrelated) genetic variants with the risk factor and outcome into a single causal effect estimate. A two-sample analysis strategy may be employed, in which evidence on the gene-risk factor and gene-outcome associations are taken from different data sources. These approaches allow the efficient identification of risk factors that are suitable targets for clinical intervention from published data, although the ability to assess the assumptions necessary for causal inference is diminished. Methods and guidance are illustrated using the example of the causal effect of serum calcium levels on fasting glucose concentrations. The estimated causal effect of a 1 standard deviation (0.13 mmol/L) increase in calcium levels on fasting glucose (mM) using a single lead variant from the CASR gene region is 0.044 (95 % credible interval -0.002, 0.100). In contrast, using our method to account for the correlation between variants, the corresponding estimate using 17 genetic variants is 0.022 (95 % credible interval 0.009, 0.035), a more clearly positive causal effect.

  12. Organisational Factors of Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) and Prevention

    PubMed Central

    LECLERCQ, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Workplace design and upkeep, or human factors, are frequently advanced for explaining so-called Occupational Slip, Trip and Fall Accidents (OSTFAs). Despite scientific progress, these accidents, and more broadly Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMDs), are also commonly considered to be “simple”. This paper aims to stimulate changes in such perceptions by focusing on organisational factors that often combine with other accident factors to cause movement disturbance and injury in work situations. These factors frequently lead to arbitration between production and safety, which involves implementation of controls by workers. These controls can lead to greater worker exposure to OAMD risk. We propose a model that focuses on such controls to account specifically for the need to confront production and safety logics within a company and to enhance the potential for appropriate prevention action. These are then integrated into the set of controls highlighted by work organisation model developed by the NIOSH. PMID:25345425

  13. The Host-Agent-Environment Concept of Accidents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Don

    Background information is presented to indicate that accidents are an environmental health problem. While accidents are seldom thought to be a disease process, in many ways there are remarkable similarities--not only in terms of causal relationships, but also in preventive aspects. These parallels are described in terms of host-agent-environment…

  14. Truck Drivers' Experiences and Perspectives Regarding Factors Influencing Traffic Accidents: A Qualitative Study.

    PubMed

    Karimi Moonaghi, Hossein; Ranjbar, Hossein; Heydari, Abbas; Scurlock-Evans, Laura

    2015-08-01

    Traffic accidents are a major public health problem, leading to death and disability. Although pertinent studies have been conducted, little data are available in Iran. This study explored the experiences of truck drivers and their perspectives regarding factors contributing to traffic accidents. Eighteen truck drivers, purposively sampled, participated in semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. A main theme, lack of ability to control stress, emerged as a factor influencing the incidence of traffic accidents. This main theme was found to have three subthemes: poor organization of the job, lack of workplace facilities and proper equipment, and unsupportive environment. Although several factors were found to contribute to traffic accidents, their effects were not independent, and all were considered significant. Identifying factors that contribute to traffic accidents requires a systematic and holistic approach. Findings could be used by the transportation industry and community health centers to prevent traffic accidents. © 2015 The Author(s).

  15. Factors associated with urban non-fatal road-accident severity.

    PubMed

    Potoglou, Dimitris; Carlucci, Fabio; Cirà, Andrea; Restaino, Marialuisa

    2018-02-05

    This paper reports on the factors associated with non-fatal urban-road accident severity. Data on accidents were gathered from the local traffic police in the City of Palermo, one of the six most populated cities in Italy. Findings from a mixed-effects logistic-regression model suggest that accident severity increases when two young drivers are involved, road traffic conditions are light/normal and when vehicles crash on a two-way road or carriageway. Speeding is more likely to cause slight or serious injury even when compared to a vehicle moving towards the opposite direction of traffic. An accident during the summer is more likely to result in a slight or serious injury than an accident during the winter, which is in line with evidence from Southern Europe and the Middle East. Finally, the severity of non-fatal accident injuries in an urban area of Southern Europe was significantly associated with speeding, the age of the driver and seasonality.

  16. Human factors analysis and classification system applied to civil aircraft accidents in India.

    PubMed

    Gaur, Deepak

    2005-05-01

    The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) has gained wide acceptance as a tool to classify human factors in aircraft accidents and incidents. This study on application of HFACS to civil aircraft accident reports at Directorate General Civil of Aviation (DGCA), India, was conducted to ascertain the practicability of applying HFACS to existing investigation reports and to analyze the trends of human factor causes of civil aircraft accidents. Accident investigation reports held at DGCA, New Delhi, for the period 1990--99 were scrutinized. In all, 83 accidents occurred during this period, of which 48 accident reports were evaluated in this study. One or more human factors contributed to 37 of the 48 (77.1%) accidents. The commonest unsafe act was 'skill based errors' followed by 'decision errors.' Violations of laid down rules were contributory in 16 cases (33.3%). 'Preconditions for unsafe acts' were seen in 23 of the 48 cases (47.9%). A fairly large number (52.1%) had 'organizational influences' contributing to the accident. These results are in consonance with larger studies of accidents in the U.S. Navy and general aviation. Such a high percentage of 'organizational influences' has not been reported in other studies. This is a healthy sign for Indian civil aviation, provided effective remedial action for the same is undertaken.

  17. A methodology to model causal relationships on offshore safety assessment focusing on human and organizational factors.

    PubMed

    Ren, J; Jenkinson, I; Wang, J; Xu, D L; Yang, J B

    2008-01-01

    Focusing on people and organizations, this paper aims to contribute to offshore safety assessment by proposing a methodology to model causal relationships. The methodology is proposed in a general sense that it will be capable of accommodating modeling of multiple risk factors considered in offshore operations and will have the ability to deal with different types of data that may come from different resources. Reason's "Swiss cheese" model is used to form a generic offshore safety assessment framework, and Bayesian Network (BN) is tailored to fit into the framework to construct a causal relationship model. The proposed framework uses a five-level-structure model to address latent failures within the causal sequence of events. The five levels include Root causes level, Trigger events level, Incidents level, Accidents level, and Consequences level. To analyze and model a specified offshore installation safety, a BN model was established following the guideline of the proposed five-level framework. A range of events was specified, and the related prior and conditional probabilities regarding the BN model were assigned based on the inherent characteristics of each event. This paper shows that Reason's "Swiss cheese" model and BN can be jointly used in offshore safety assessment. On the one hand, the five-level conceptual model is enhanced by BNs that are capable of providing graphical demonstration of inter-relationships as well as calculating numerical values of occurrence likelihood for each failure event. Bayesian inference mechanism also makes it possible to monitor how a safety situation changes when information flow travel forwards and backwards within the networks. On the other hand, BN modeling relies heavily on experts' personal experiences and is therefore highly domain specific. "Swiss cheese" model is such a theoretic framework that it is based on solid behavioral theory and therefore can be used to provide industry with a roadmap for BN modeling and

  18. Human Factors in Accidents Involving Remotely Piloted Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merlin, Peter William

    2013-01-01

    This presentation examines human factors that contribute to RPA mishaps and provides analysis of lessons learned. RPA accident data from U.S. military and government agencies were reviewed and analyzed to identify human factors issues. Common contributors to RPA mishaps fell into several major categories: cognitive factors (pilot workload), physiological factors (fatigue and stress), environmental factors (situational awareness), staffing factors (training and crew coordination), and design factors (human machine interface).

  19. Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

    2015-01-01

    Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

  20. Multivariate Granger causality: an estimation framework based on factorization of the spectral density matrix

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Xiaotong; Rangarajan, Govindan; Ding, Mingzhou

    2013-01-01

    Granger causality is increasingly being applied to multi-electrode neurophysiological and functional imaging data to characterize directional interactions between neurons and brain regions. For a multivariate dataset, one might be interested in different subsets of the recorded neurons or brain regions. According to the current estimation framework, for each subset, one conducts a separate autoregressive model fitting process, introducing the potential for unwanted variability and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a multivariate framework for estimating Granger causality. It is based on spectral density matrix factorization and offers the advantage that the estimation of such a matrix needs to be done only once for the entire multivariate dataset. For any subset of recorded data, Granger causality can be calculated through factorizing the appropriate submatrix of the overall spectral density matrix. PMID:23858479

  1. Validity and consistency assessment of accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry.

    PubMed

    Ahmadi, Omran; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Khavanin, Ali; Mokarami, Hamidreza

    2017-11-17

    Accident analysis is the main aspect of accident investigation. It includes the method of connecting different causes in a procedural way. Therefore, it is important to use valid and reliable methods for the investigation of different causal factors of accidents, especially the noteworthy ones. This study aimed to prominently assess the accuracy (sensitivity index [SI]) and consistency of the six most commonly used accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry. In order to evaluate the methods of accident analysis, two real case studies (process safety and personal accident) from the petroleum industry were analyzed by 10 assessors. The accuracy and consistency of these methods were then evaluated. The assessors were trained in the workshop of accident analysis methods. The systematic cause analysis technique and bowtie methods gained the greatest SI scores for both personal and process safety accidents, respectively. The best average results of the consistency in a single method (based on 10 independent assessors) were in the region of 70%. This study confirmed that the application of methods with pre-defined causes and a logic tree could enhance the sensitivity and consistency of accident analysis.

  2. Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

    PubMed

    Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

    2010-08-01

    During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

  3. Development of South Dakota accident reduction factors

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-08-01

    This report offers the methodology and findings of the first project to develop Accident Reduction Factors (ARFs) and Severity Reduction Ratios (SRRs) for the state of South Dakota. The ARFs and SRRs of this project focused on Hazard Elimination and ...

  4. Study of Psycho-Social Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Among Young Boys in Tehran.

    PubMed

    Javadi, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein; Fekr Azad, Hossein; Tahmasebi, Siyamak; Rafiei, Hassan; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Tajlili, Alireza

    2015-07-01

    Unprecedented growth of fatalities due to traffic accidents in the recent years has raised great concerns and efforts of authorities in order to identify and control the causes of these accidents. In the present study, the contribution of psychological, social, demographic, environmental and behavioral factors on traffic accidents was studied for young boys in Tehran, emphasizing the importance of psychosocial factors. The design of the present study was quantitative (correlational) in which a sample population including 253 boys from Tehran (Iran) with an age range of 18 to 24 who had been referred to insurance institutions, hospitals, correctional facilities as well as prisons, were selected using stratified cluster sampling during the year 2013.The subjects completed the following questionnaires: demographic, general health, lifestyle, Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire (MDBQ), young parenting, and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). For data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, and inferential statistics including simultaneous regression, stepwise regression, and structural equations modeling were used. The findings indicated that in the psychosocial model of driving behavior (including lapses, mistakes, and intentional violations) and accidents, psychological factors, depression (P < 0.02), personality trait of conscientiousness (P < 0.02), failure schema due to the parenting style of mother (P = 0.001), and perception of police commands (P < 0.002), played an important role in predicting driving behavior. Among social factors, perception of police regulations (P = 0.003), had an important effect on violations and mistakes. Among environmental and behavioral factors, major factors such as driving age (P = 0.001), drug and alcohol use (P = 0.001), having driver's license (P = 0.013), records of imprisonment or committing a crime (P = 0.012) were also able to predict occurrence of accidents. As the results of this study show

  5. [Accidents and violence in childhood and adolescence: risk and protective factors].

    PubMed

    Martins, Christine Baccarat de Godoy

    2013-01-01

    Singled out by statistics as the third leading cause of mortality in our country, external causes (accidents and violence) entail a great impact with economic, social and emotional rebound. Knowing the factors related to the event is essential, because it allows identifying and breaking the web that determines morbidity and mortality from external causes. The study aims to analyze the existing publications on the factors associated with accidents and violence, in order to provide theoretical support for professionals in their practices. This is a bibliographical study of the Liliacs, Medline and Scielo databanks. The knowledge of the risk and protection factors discussed in the present study enables subsidize the practice of social actors engaged in transforming the conditions that lead to accidents and violence.

  6. Causal factors of corporate crime in Taiwan: qualitative and quantitative findings.

    PubMed

    Mon, Wei-Teh

    2002-04-01

    Street crimes are a primary concern of most criminologists in Taiwan. In recent years, however, crimes committed by corporations have increased greatly in this country. Employing the empirical approach to collect data about causal factors of corporate crime, the research presented in this article is the first systematic empirical study concerning corporate crime in Taiwan. The research sample was selected from a corporation with a criminal record of pollution caused by the release of toxic chemicals into the environment and a corporation with no criminal record. Questionnaire survey and interviews of corporate employees and managers were conducted, and secondary data were collected from official agencies. This research indicated the causal factors of corporate crime as follows: the failure of government regulation, lack of corporate self-regulation, lack of public concern about corporate crime, corporate mechanistic structure, and the low self-control tendency of corporate managers.

  7. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-07-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

  8. Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Chen, Guanghan

    2013-10-01

    With the recent economic boom in China, vehicle volume and the number of traffic accident fatalities have become the highest in the world. Meanwhile, traffic accidents have become the leading cause of death in China. Systematically analyzing road safety data from different perspectives and applying empirical methods/implementing proper measures to reduce the fatality rate will be an urgent and challenging task for China in the coming years. In this study, we analyze the traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report, are the only officially available and reliable source of traffic accident data (with a sample size>7000 per year). In particular, we focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity. Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered. First, the results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. An immediate implication is: if the traffic violation rate could be reduced or controlled successfully, then the rate of serious injuries and fatalities would be reduced accordingly. Second, specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined. Accordingly, to reduce traffic accident incidence and fatality rates, measures such as traffic regulations and legislation-targeting different vehicle types/driver groups with respect to the various human, vehicle and environment risk factors-are needed. Such measures could include road safety programs for targeted driver groups, focused enforcement of traffic regulations and road/transport facility improvements. Data analysis results arising from this study will shed lights on the development of similar (adjusted) measures to reduce traffic violations and/or accident fatalities and injuries, and to promote road safety in other regions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All

  9. Determination of influence factors and accident rates for the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Phillips, J.S.; Clauss, D.B.; Blower, D.F.

    1994-04-01

    Operating environments, such as road type, road location, and time of day, play an important role in the observed accident rates of heavy trucks used in general commerce. These same factors influence the accident rate of the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer (AT/SST) used by the Department of Energy to transport hazardous cargos within the continental United States. This report discusses the development of accident rate influence factors. These factors, based on heavy trucks used in general commerce, are used to modify the observed overall AT/SST accident rate to account for the different operating environments.

  10. Fatigue failure of metal components as a factor in civil aircraft accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holshouser, W. L.; Mayner, R. D.

    1972-01-01

    A review of records maintained by the National Transportation Safety Board showed that 16,054 civil aviation accidents occurred in the United States during the 3-year period ending December 31, 1969. Material failure was an important factor in the cause of 942 of these accidents. Fatigue was identified as the mode of the material failures associated with the cause of 155 accidents and in many other accidents the records indicated that fatigue failures might have been involved. There were 27 fatal accidents and 157 fatalities in accidents in which fatigue failures of metal components were definitely identified. Fatigue failures associated with accidents occurred most frequently in landing-gear components, followed in order by powerplant, propeller, and structural components in fixed-wing aircraft and tail-rotor and main-rotor components in rotorcraft. In a study of 230 laboratory reports on failed components associated with the cause of accidents, fatigue was identified as the mode of failure in more than 60 percent of the failed components. The most frequently identified cause of fatigue, as well as most other types of material failures, was improper maintenance (including inadequate inspection). Fabrication defects, design deficiencies, defective material, and abnormal service damage also caused many fatigue failures. Four case histories of major accidents are included in the paper as illustrations of some of the factors invovled in fatigue failures of aircraft components.

  11. Study of Psycho-Social Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents Among Young Boys in Tehran

    PubMed Central

    Javadi, Seyyed Mohammad Hossein; Fekr Azad, Hossein; Tahmasebi, Siyamak; Rafiei, Hassan; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Tajlili, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Background: Unprecedented growth of fatalities due to traffic accidents in the recent years has raised great concerns and efforts of authorities in order to identify and control the causes of these accidents. Objectives: In the present study, the contribution of psychological, social, demographic, environmental and behavioral factors on traffic accidents was studied for young boys in Tehran, emphasizing the importance of psychosocial factors. Patients and Methods: The design of the present study was quantitative (correlational) in which a sample population including 253 boys from Tehran (Iran) with an age range of 18 to 24 who had been referred to insurance institutions, hospitals, correctional facilities as well as prisons, were selected using stratified cluster sampling during the year 2013.The subjects completed the following questionnaires: demographic, general health, lifestyle, Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire (MDBQ), young parenting, and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). For data analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient, and inferential statistics including simultaneous regression, stepwise regression, and structural equations modeling were used. Results: The findings indicated that in the psychosocial model of driving behavior (including lapses, mistakes, and intentional violations) and accidents, psychological factors, depression (P < 0.02), personality trait of conscientiousness (P < 0.02), failure schema due to the parenting style of mother (P = 0.001), and perception of police commands (P < 0.002), played an important role in predicting driving behavior. Among social factors, perception of police regulations (P = 0.003), had an important effect on violations and mistakes. Among environmental and behavioral factors, major factors such as driving age (P = 0.001), drug and alcohol use (P = 0.001), having driver’s license (P = 0.013), records of imprisonment or committing a crime (P = 0.012) were also able to predict

  12. How perceptions of experience-based analysis influence explanations of work accidents.

    PubMed

    Mbaye, Safiétou; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2013-12-01

    This article looks into how perceptions of experience-based analysis (EBA) influence causal explanations of accidents given by managers and workers in the chemical industry (n=409) and in the nuclear industry (n=222). The approach is based on the model of naive explanations of accidents (Kouabenan, 1999, 2006, 2009), which recommends taking into account explanations of accidents spontaneously given by individuals, including laypersons, not only to better understand why accidents occur but also to design and implement the most appropriate prevention measures. The study reported here describes the impact of perceptions about EBA (perceived effectiveness, personal commitment, and the feeling of being involved in EBA practices) on managers' and workers' explanations of accidents likely to occur at the workplace. The results indicated that both managers and workers made more internal explanations than external ones when they perceived EBA positively. Moreover, the more the participants felt involved in EBA, were committed to it, and judged it effective, the more they explained accidents in terms of factors internal to the workers. Recommendations are proposed for reducing defensive reactions, increasing personal commitment to EBA, and improving EBA effectiveness. © 2013.

  13. The influence of linguistic and cognitive factors on the time course of verb-based implicit causality.

    PubMed

    Koornneef, Arnout; Dotlačil, Jakub; van den Broek, Paul; Sanders, Ted

    2016-01-01

    In three eye-tracking experiments the influence of the Dutch causal connective "want" (because) and the working memory capacity of readers on the usage of verb-based implicit causality was examined. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that although a causal connective is not required to activate implicit causality information during reading, effects of implicit causality surfaced more rapidly and were more pronounced when a connective was present in the discourse than when it was absent. In addition, Experiment 3 revealed that-in contrast to previous claims-the activation of implicit causality is not a resource-consuming mental operation. Moreover, readers with higher and lower working memory capacities behaved differently in a dual-task situation. Higher span readers were more likely to use implicit causality when they had all their working memory resources at their disposal. Lower span readers showed the opposite pattern as they were more likely to use the implicit causality cue in the case of an additional working memory load. The results emphasize that both linguistic and cognitive factors mediate the impact of implicit causality on text comprehension. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of the ongoing controversies in the literature-that is, the focusing-integration debate and the debates on the source of implicit causality.

  14. Medical factors in U.S. general aviation accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1969-01-01

    About ninety percent of fatal U. S. general aviation accidents involve factors other than the aircraft or outside circumstances. This necessarily brings the flight surgeon into the mainstream of aviation safety activities. The paper describes some re...

  15. Exploring the factors affecting motorway accident severity in England using the generalised ordered logistic regression model.

    PubMed

    Michalaki, Paraskevi; Quddus, Mohammed A; Pitfield, David; Huetson, Andrew

    2015-12-01

    The severity of motorway accidents that occurred on the hard shoulder (HS) is higher than for the main carriageway (MC). This paper compares and contrasts the most important factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways in England. Using police reported accident data, the accidents that occurred on motorways in England are grouped into two categories (i.e., HS and MC) according to the location. A generalized ordered logistic regression model is then applied to identify the factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways. The factors examined include accident and vehicle characteristics, traffic and environment conditions, as well as other behavioral factors. Results suggest that the factors positively affecting the severity include: number of vehicles involved in the accident, peak-hour traffic time, and low visibility. Differences between HS and MC accidents are identified, with the most important being the involvement of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and driver fatigue, which are found to be more crucial in increasing the severity of HS accidents. Measures to increase awareness of HGV drivers regarding the risk of fatigue when driving on motorways, and especially the nearside lane, should be taken by the stakeholders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

    PubMed Central

    Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors

  17. Factors correlated with traffic accidents as a basis for evaluating Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

    PubMed

    Staubach, Maria

    2009-09-01

    This study aims to identify factors which influence and cause errors in traffic accidents and to use these as a basis for information to guide the application and design of driver assistance systems. A total of 474 accidents were examined in depth for this study by means of a psychological survey, data from accident reports, and technical reconstruction information. An error analysis was subsequently carried out, taking into account the driver, environment, and vehicle sub-systems. Results showed that all accidents were influenced by errors as a consequence of distraction and reduced activity. For crossroad accidents, there were further errors resulting from sight obstruction, masked stimuli, focus errors, and law infringements. Lane departure crashes were additionally caused by errors as a result of masked stimuli, law infringements, expectation errors as well as objective and action slips, while same direction accidents occurred additionally because of focus errors, expectation errors, and objective and action slips. Most accidents were influenced by multiple factors. There is a safety potential for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), which support the driver in information assimilation and help to avoid distraction and reduced activity. The design of the ADAS is dependent on the specific influencing factors of the accident type.

  18. National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

    PubMed

    Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

    2013-01-01

    In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).

  19. Bayes classifiers for imbalanced traffic accidents datasets.

    PubMed

    Mujalli, Randa Oqab; López, Griselda; Garach, Laura

    2016-03-01

    Traffic accidents data sets are usually imbalanced, where the number of instances classified under the killed or severe injuries class (minority) is much lower than those classified under the slight injuries class (majority). This, however, supposes a challenging problem for classification algorithms and may cause obtaining a model that well cover the slight injuries instances whereas the killed or severe injuries instances are misclassified frequently. Based on traffic accidents data collected on urban and suburban roads in Jordan for three years (2009-2011); three different data balancing techniques were used: under-sampling which removes some instances of the majority class, oversampling which creates new instances of the minority class and a mix technique that combines both. In addition, different Bayes classifiers were compared for the different imbalanced and balanced data sets: Averaged One-Dependence Estimators, Weightily Average One-Dependence Estimators, and Bayesian networks in order to identify factors that affect the severity of an accident. The results indicated that using the balanced data sets, especially those created using oversampling techniques, with Bayesian networks improved classifying a traffic accident according to its severity and reduced the misclassification of killed and severe injuries instances. On the other hand, the following variables were found to contribute to the occurrence of a killed causality or a severe injury in a traffic accident: number of vehicles involved, accident pattern, number of directions, accident type, lighting, surface condition, and speed limit. This work, to the knowledge of the authors, is the first that aims at analyzing historical data records for traffic accidents occurring in Jordan and the first to apply balancing techniques to analyze injury severity of traffic accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

    2013-08-01

    To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on

  1. Description of Various Factors Contributing to Traffic Accidents in Youth and Measures Proposed to Alleviate Recurrence.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Ludovic; Ordonneau, Pauline; Blot, Emilie; Toillon, Charlotte; Ingrand, Pierre; Romo, Lucia

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the leading cause of hospitalization in adolescence, with the 18-24-year-old age group accounting for 23% of deaths by traffic accidents. Recurrence rate is also high. One in four teenagers will have a relapse within the year following the first accident. Cognitive impairments known in adolescence could cause risky behaviors, defined as repetitive engagement in dangerous situations such as road accidents. Two categories of factors seem to be associated with traffic accidents: (1) factors specific to the traffic environment and (2) "human" factors, which seem to be the most influential. Moreover, the establishment of a stronger relation to high speed driving increases traffic accident risks and can also be intensified by sensation seeking. Other factors such as substance use (alcohol, drugs, and "binge drinking") are also identified as risk factors. Furthermore, cell phone use while driving and attention deficit disorder with or without hyperactivity also seem to be important risk factors for car accidents. The family environment strongly influences a young person's driving behavior. Some interventional driving strategies and preventive measures have reduced the risk of traffic accidents among young people, such as the graduated driver licensing program and advertising campaigns. So far, few therapeutic approaches have been implemented. Reason why, we decided to set up an innovative strategy consisting of a therapeutic postaccident group intervention, entitled the ECARR2 protocol, to prevent recurrence among adolescents and young adults identified at risk, taking into account the multiple risk factors.

  2. Granger causality revisited

    PubMed Central

    Friston, Karl J.; Bastos, André M.; Oswal, Ashwini; van Wijk, Bernadette; Richter, Craig; Litvak, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. PMID:25003817

  3. Occupational accidents in the Netherlands: incidence, mental harm, and their relationship with psychosocial factors at work.

    PubMed

    van der Klauw, Marloes; Hengel, Karen Oude; Roozeboom, Maartje Bakhuys; Koppes, Lando L; Venema, Anita

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the incidence of mental harm due to occupational accidents and the relation between psychosocial factors at work and the occurrence of occupational accidents in the Netherlands for the construction industry and health and welfare sector. Analyses revealed that occupational accidents in the construction industry more often involved physical harm, whereas accidents in the health and welfare sector relatively more often resulted in mental harm, in comparison to other sectors. Results showed that psychosocial factors were associated with occupational accidents in both sectors. For the construction industry, high time pressure and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors were associated with occupational accidents. For the health and welfare sector, low autonomy and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors or by people outside the organization were associated with occupational accidents. The present paper stresses the importance of also taking psychological consequences and psychosocial factors at work into account in assessing the occurrence of occupational accidents.

  4. Description of Various Factors Contributing to Traffic Accidents in Youth and Measures Proposed to Alleviate Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Gicquel, Ludovic; Ordonneau, Pauline; Blot, Emilie; Toillon, Charlotte; Ingrand, Pierre; Romo, Lucia

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the leading cause of hospitalization in adolescence, with the 18–24-year-old age group accounting for 23% of deaths by traffic accidents. Recurrence rate is also high. One in four teenagers will have a relapse within the year following the first accident. Cognitive impairments known in adolescence could cause risky behaviors, defined as repetitive engagement in dangerous situations such as road accidents. Two categories of factors seem to be associated with traffic accidents: (1) factors specific to the traffic environment and (2) “human” factors, which seem to be the most influential. Moreover, the establishment of a stronger relation to high speed driving increases traffic accident risks and can also be intensified by sensation seeking. Other factors such as substance use (alcohol, drugs, and “binge drinking”) are also identified as risk factors. Furthermore, cell phone use while driving and attention deficit disorder with or without hyperactivity also seem to be important risk factors for car accidents. The family environment strongly influences a young person’s driving behavior. Some interventional driving strategies and preventive measures have reduced the risk of traffic accidents among young people, such as the graduated driver licensing program and advertising campaigns. So far, few therapeutic approaches have been implemented. Reason why, we decided to set up an innovative strategy consisting of a therapeutic postaccident group intervention, entitled the ECARR2 protocol, to prevent recurrence among adolescents and young adults identified at risk, taking into account the multiple risk factors. PMID:28620324

  5. Comprehensive Analysis of Two Downburst-Related Aircraft Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, J.; Parks, E. K.; Bach, R. E.

    1996-01-01

    Although downbursts have been identified as the major cause of a number of aircraft takeoff and landing accidents, only the 1985 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) and the more recent (July 1994) Charlotte, North Carolina, landing accidents provided sufficient onboard recorded data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the downburst phenomenon. The first step in the present analysis was the determination of the downburst wind components. Once the wind components and their gradients were determined, the degrading effect of the wind environment on the airplane's performance was calculated. This wind-shear-induced aircraft performance degradation, sometimes called the F-factor, was broken down into two components F(sub 1) and F(sub 2), representing the effect of the horizontal wind gradient and the vertical wind velocity, respectively. In both the DFW and Charlotte cases, F(sub 1) was found to be the dominant causal factor of the accident. Next, the aircraft in the two cases were mathematically modeled using the longitudinal equations of motion and the appropriate aerodynamic parameters. Based on the aircraft model and the determined winds, the aircraft response to the recorded pilot inputs showed good agreement with the onboard recordings. Finally, various landing abort strategies were studied. It was concluded that the most acceptable landing abort strategy from both an analytical and pilot's standpoint was to hold constant nose-up pitch attitude while operating at maximum engine thrust.

  6. Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005.

    PubMed

    Laursen, Lise H; Hansen, Henrik L; Jensen, Olaf C

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures.

  7. Causal and causally separable processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-09-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  8. Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

    2006-09-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

  9. Arabian, Asian, western: a cross-cultural comparison of aircraft accidents from human factor perspectives.

    PubMed

    Al-Wardi, Yousuf

    2017-09-01

    Rates of aviation accident differ in different regions; and national culture has been implicated as a factor. This invites a discussion about the role of national culture in aviation accidents. This study makes a cross-cultural comparison between Oman, Taiwan and the USA. A cross-cultural comparison was acquired using data from three studies, including this study, by applying the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework. The Taiwan study presented 523 mishaps with 1762 occurrences of human error obtained from the Republic of China Air Force. The study from the USA carried out for commercial aviation had 119 accidents with 245 instances of human error. This study carried out in Oman had a total of 40 aircraft accidents with 129 incidences. Variations were found between Oman, Taiwan and the USA at the levels of organisational influence and unsafe supervision. Seven HFACS categories showed significant differences between the three countries (p < 0.05). Although not given much consideration, national culture can have an impact on aviation safety. This study revealed that national culture plays a role in aircraft accidents related to human factors that cannot be disregarded.

  10. Causes of accidents in terrain parks: an exploratory factor analysis of recreational freestylers' views.

    PubMed

    Carús, Luis

    2014-03-01

    This study examines ski and snowboard terrain park users' views on aspects associated with accidents by identifying and assessing variables that may influence the occurrence of accidents and the resulting injuries. The research was conducted in a major resort in the Spanish Pyrenees, using information gathered from freestyle skiers and snowboarders aged 6 or older. To identify interrelationships among variables and to group the variables belonging to unified concepts, an exploratory factor analysis was performed using varimax rotation. The results revealed 5 factors that grouped the measured variables that may influence the occurrence of accidents while freestyling in terrain parks. The park features, conditions of the activity, and the user's personal conditions were found to have the most substantial influence on the freestylers' perceptions. Variables identified as components of the main factors of accident risk in terrain parks should be incorporated into resort management communication and policies. © 2013 Wilderness Medical Society Published by Wilderness Medical Society All rights reserved.

  11. Blaming Leaders for Organizational Accidents: Proxy Logic in Collective- versus Individual-Agency Cultures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemba, Yuriko; Young, Maia J.; Morris, Michael W.

    2006-01-01

    The current research investigates whether observers blame leaders for organizational accidents even when these managers are known to be causally uninvolved. Past research finds that the public blames managers for organizational harm if the managers are perceived to have personally played a causal role. The present research argues that East Asian…

  12. An epidemiologic survey of road traffic accidents in Iran: analysis of driver-related factors.

    PubMed

    Moafian, Ghasem; Aghabeigi, Mohammad-Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Hoseinzadeh, Amin; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri; Sarikhani, Yaser

    2013-01-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) and its related injuries contribute to a significant portion of the burden of diseases in Iran. This paper explores the association between driver-related factors and RTA in the country. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Iran and all data regarding RTAs from March 20, 2010 to June 10, 2010 were obtained from the Traffic Police Department. We included 538 588 RTA records, which were classified to control for the main confounders: accident type, final cause of accident, time of accident and driver-related factors. Driver-related factors included sex, educational level, license type, type of injury, duration between accident and getting the driving license and driver's error type. A total of 538 588 drivers (91.83% male, sex ratio of almost 13:1) were involved in the RTAs. Among them 423 932 (78.71%) were uninjured; 224 818 (41.74%) had a diploma degree. Grade 2 driving license represented the highest proportion of all driving licenses (290 811, 54.00%). The greatest number of accidents took place at 12:00-13:59 (75 024, 13.93%). The proportion of drivers involved in RTAs decreased from 15.90% in the first year of getting a driving license to 3.13% after 10 years'of driving experience. Neglect of regulations was the commonest cause of traffic crashes (345 589, 64.17%). Non-observance of priority and inattention to the front were the most frequent final causes of death (138 175, 25.66% and 129 352, 24.02%, respectively). We found significant association between type of accident and sex, education, license type, time of accident, final cause of accident, driver's error as well as duration between accident and getting the driving license (all P less than 0.001). Our results will improve the traffic law enforcement measures, which will change inappropriate behavior of drivers and protect the least experienced road users.

  13. Accident/Mishap Investigation System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, Richard; Wolfe, Shawn; Gawdiak, Yuri; Carvalho, Robert; Panontin, Tina; Williams, James; Sturken, Ian

    2007-01-01

    InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

  14. Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry.

    PubMed

    Bourassa, Dominic; Gauthier, François; Abdul-Nour, Georges

    2016-01-01

    Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.

  15. Effective Factors in Severity of Traffic Accident-Related Traumas; an Epidemiologic Study Based on the Haddon Matrix

    PubMed Central

    Masoumi, Kambiz; Forouzan, Arash; Barzegari, Hassan; Asgari Darian, Ali; Rahim, Fakher; Zohrevandi, Behzad; Nabi, Somayeh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Traffic accidents are the 8th cause of mortality in different countries and are expected to rise to the 3rd rank by 2020. Based on the Haddon matrix numerous factors such as environment, host, and agent can affect the severity of traffic-related traumas. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the effective factors in severity of these traumas based on Haddon matrix. Methods: In the present 1-month cross-sectional study, all the patients injured in traffic accidents, who were referred to the ED of Imam Khomeini and Golestan Hospitals, Ahvaz, Iran, during March 2013 were evaluated. Based on the Haddon matrix, effective factors in accident occurrence were defined in 3 groups of host, agent, and environment. Demographic data of the patients and data regarding Haddon risk factors were extracted and analyzed using SPSS version 20. Results: 700 injured people with the mean age of 29.66 ± 12.64 years (3-82) were evaluated (92.4% male). Trauma mechanism was car-pedestrian in 308 (44%) of the cases and car-motorcycle in 175 (25%). 610 (87.1%) cases were traffic accidents and 371 (53%) occurred in the time between 2 pm and 8 pm. Violation of speed limit was the most common violation with 570 (81.4%) cases, followed by violation of right-of-way in 57 (8.1%) patients. 59.9% of the severe and critical injuries had occurred on road accidents, while 61.3% of the injuries caused by traffic accidents were mild to moderate (p < 0.001). The most common mechanisms of trauma for critical injuries were rollover (72.5%), motorcycle-pedestrian (23.8%), and car-motorcycle (13.14%) accidents (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Based on the results of the present study, the most important effective factors in severity of traffic accident-related traumas were age over 50, not using safety tools, and undertaking among host-related factors; insufficient environment safety, road accidents and time between 2 pm and 8 pm among environmental factors; and finally, rollover, car

  16. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

    PubMed Central

    Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

    2007-01-01

    Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and

  17. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

    PubMed

    Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

    2007-07-24

    People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different

  18. A cascading failure model for analyzing railway accident causation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jin-Tao; Li, Ke-Ping

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a new cascading failure model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing the railway accident causation. In the model, the loads of nodes are redistributed according to the strength of the causal relationships between the nodes. By analyzing the actual situation of the existing prevention measures, a critical threshold of the load parameter in the model is obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed cascading model, simulation experiments of a train collision accident are performed. The results show that the cascading failure model can describe the cascading process of the railway accident more accurately than the previous models, and can quantitatively analyze the sensitivities and the influence of the causes. In conclusion, this model can assist us to reveal the latent rules of accident causation to reduce the occurrence of railway accidents.

  19. The multidimensional causal factors of 'wet litter' in chicken-meat production.

    PubMed

    Dunlop, Mark W; Moss, Amy F; Groves, Peter J; Wilkinson, Stuart J; Stuetz, Richard M; Selle, Peter H

    2016-08-15

    The problem of 'wet litter', which occurs primarily in grow-out sheds for meat chickens (broilers), has been recognised for nearly a century. Nevertheless, it is an increasingly important problem in contemporary chicken-meat production as wet litter and associated conditions, especially footpad dermatitis, have developed into tangible welfare issues. This is only compounded by the market demand for chicken paws and compromised bird performance. This review considers the multidimensional causal factors of wet litter. While many causal factors can be listed it is evident that the critical ones could be described as micro-environmental factors and chief amongst them is proper management of drinking systems and adequate shed ventilation. Thus, this review focuses on these environmental factors and pays less attention to issues stemming from health and nutrition. Clearly, there are times when related avian health issues of coccidiosis and necrotic enteritis cannot be overlooked and the development of efficacious vaccines for the latter disease would be advantageous. Presently, the inclusion of phytate-degrading enzymes in meat chicken diets is routine and, therefore, the implication that exogenous phytases may contribute to wet litter is given consideration. Opinion is somewhat divided as how best to counter the problem of wet litter as some see education and extension as being more beneficial than furthering research efforts. However, it may prove instructive to assess the practice of whole grain feeding in relation to litter quality and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. Additional research could investigate the relationships between dietary concentrations of key minerals and the application of exogenous enzymes with litter quality. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Causal Factors Influencing Adversity Quotient of Twelfth Grade and Third-Year Vocational Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pangma, Rachapoom; Tayraukham, Sombat; Nuangchalerm, Prasart

    2009-01-01

    Problem statement: The aim of this research was to study the causal factors influencing students' adversity between twelfth grade and third-year vocational students in Sisaket province, Thailand. Six hundred and seventy two of twelfth grade and 376 third-year vocational students were selected by multi-stage random sampling techniques. Approach:…

  1. [Drugs and occupational accident].

    PubMed

    Bratzke, H; Albers, C

    1996-02-01

    In a case of a fatal occupational accident (construction worker, fall from roof, urine test positive for cocaine and THC, e.g. cannabis) the question arised to what extent those drug-related occupational accidents occur. In the literature only few cases, mainly dealing with cannabis influence, have been reported, however, a higher number is suspected. Cocaine and other stimulating drugs (amphetamine) are more often used to increase physical fitness. By direct or indirect interference with vigilance these compounds may provoke accidents. Due to the lack of a legal basis proving of the influence of drugs at the working place is still very limited, although highly sensitive chemical-toxicological assay procedures are available to detect even the chronic abuse (in hair). In the general conditions of accident insurances a compensation is excluded when alcohol is involved, but drugs are not mentioned. It is indeed difficult to establish a concentration limit for drugs like that existing for alcohol (1.1%). In each case the assay of the drug involved and exact knowledge of its specific effects is in an essential prerequisite to prove the causal relationship.

  2. Investigation of life changes as a contributing factor in aircraft accidents: a prospectus.

    PubMed

    Haakonson, N H

    1980-09-01

    The author presents a personal perspective on attempts to reduce aircraft accidents resulting from human failure in the cockpit. The premise is that accidents result from an imbalance between performance ability and performance demand. Advances in decreasing pilot-induced accidents must come from methods that will prevent the stresses that diminish performance ability. It is suggested that the investigation of life change as a contributing factor in aircraft accidents will be fruitful because of the tremendous amount of research that has already been done in this field. A review of previous work leads to three recommendations: the Recent Life Change Questionnaire (RLCQ) should be developed as a tool for management and individual aircrew; a character assurance program should be adopted; and a technique to remove accident-prone individuals should be developed.

  3. Causal Factors of Corruption in Construction Project Management: An Overview.

    PubMed

    Owusu, Emmanuel Kingsford; Chan, Albert P C; Shan, Ming

    2017-11-11

    The development of efficient and strategic anti-corruption measures can be better achieved if a deeper understanding and identification of the causes of corruption are established. Over the past years, many studies have been devoted to the research of corruption in construction management (CM). This has resulted in a significant increase in the body of knowledge on the subject matter, including the causative factors triggering these corrupt practices. However, an apropos systematic assessment of both past and current studies on the subject matter which is needful for the future endeavor is lacking. Moreover, there is an absence of unified view of the causative factors of corruption identified in construction project management (CPM). This paper, therefore, presents a comprehensive review of the causes of corruption from selected articles in recognized construction management journals to address the mentioned gaps. A total number of 44 causes of corruption were identified from 37 publications and analyzed in terms of existing causal factors of corruption, annual trend of publications and the thematic categorization of the identified variables. The most identifiable causes were over close relationships, poor professional ethical standards, negative industrial and working conditions, negative role models and inadequate sanctions. A conceptual framework of causes of corruption was established, after categorizing the 44 variables into five unique categories. In descending order, the five constructs are Psychosocial-Specific Causes, Organizational-Specific Causes, Regulatory-Specific Causes, Project-Specific Causes and Statutory-Specific Causes. This study extends the current literature of corruption research in construction management and contributes to a deepened understanding of the causal instigators of corruption identified in CPM. The findings from this study provide valuable information and extended knowledge to industry practitioners and policymakers as well as

  4. A human factors analysis of fatal and serious injury accidents in Alaska, 2004-2009.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-12-01

    "This report summarizes the analysis of 97 general aviation accidents in Alaska that resulted in a fatality or serious : injury to one or more aircraft occupants for the years 2004-2009. The accidents were analyzed using the Human : Factors Analysis ...

  5. Reducing Aviation Weather-Related Accidents Through High-Fidelity Weather Information Distribution and Presentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Shafer, Daniel B.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.

    2000-01-01

    In February 1997, the US President announced a national goal to reduce the fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% within ten years. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration established the Aviation Safety Program to develop technologies needed to meet this aggressive goal. Because weather has been identified (is a causal factor in approximately 30% of all aviation accidents, a project was established for the development of technologies that will provide accurate, time and intuitive information to pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers to enable the detection and avoidance of atmospheric hazards. This project addresses the weather information needs of general, corporate, regional, and transport aircraft operators. An overview and status of research and development efforts for high-fidelity weather information distribution and presentation is discussed with emphasis on weather information in the cockpit.

  6. Demographic factors, fatigue, and driving accidents: An examination of the published literature.

    PubMed

    Di Milia, Lee; Smolensky, Michael H; Costa, Giovanni; Howarth, Heidi D; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre

    2011-03-01

    This article reviews the literature pertaining to the association between demographic variables (e.g., age, sex, race, socio-economic status) with fatigue, and when feasible, accident risk. It also explores their potential influence and interaction with some working arrangements, commute time, personality characteristics, and circadian chronotype. Fatigue has been implicated in a range of impairments that can have detrimental effects on individuals, and it is differentially associated with conventional demographic variables. However, several major methodological limitations prevent clear conclusions. First, there is absence of a shared definition both within and across disciplines. Second, although fatigue has been investigated using a variety of diverse designs, they have either been too weak to substantiate causality or lacked ecological validity. Third, while both subjective and objective measures have been used as dependent variables, fatigue has been more often found to be more strongly linked with the former. Fourth, with the exception of age and sex, the influence of other demographic variables is unknown, since they have not yet been concomitantly assessed. In instances when they have been assessed and included in statistical analyses, they are considered as covariates or confounders; thus, their contribution to the outcome variable is controlled for, rather than being a planned aspect of investigation. Because the interaction of demographic factors with fatigue is largely a neglected area of study, we recommend greater interdisciplinary collaborations, incorporation of multiple demographic variables as independent factors, and use of within-participant analyses. These recommendations would provide meaningful results that may be used to inform public policy and preventive strategies. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. [Human risk factors and injuries due to road accidents: analysis of current data].

    PubMed

    Marchetti, Pierpaolo; Morandi, Anna; Lombardo, Carlo; Gigli Berzolari, Francesca; Bruno, Vincenzo; Marinoni, Alessandra

    2009-01-01

    several studies have shown that most road accidents are due to human factors, and that these are strongly linked to a drive's age and sex. The aim of this study is to test the role that some human factors play in road accidents by analysing current road accident data in the Province of Pavia, in Northern Italy. road accidents that occurred in 2004 were analysed by integrating the paper database of the vehicle licensing office, properly computerised, with the 911 database of the Province of Pavia. This study has been carried out by analysing 1.347 road accidents and the associated 2.908 drivers of motorised vehicles. Northern Italy, the Province of Pavia. the death rate of drivers of 2-wheeled vehicles is almost nine times higher than that of 4-wheeled vehicles. Analysis shows that females are twice as exposed to road accidents than males; it also shows the benefits of extensive road education training and of being aged 30-64 and older. Drivers who have already been punished and have had their driving license scores reduced are likely to respond rapidly when in a dangerous situation and also to be without blame after an accident. Motorcycle riders are 25 times more likely to suffer serious injury than drivers of cars. Additionally, the risk of a woman being seriously injured is higher than for a man. females, young drivers and motorcycle riders who have not previously been penalised for a previous traffic violation have a higher risk of being seriously injured; females and motorcycle riders are also at greater risk of being seriously injured. We hope that this analysis will be used to improve preventative interventions for road accidents.r.

  8. Infant acetylcholine, dopamine, and melatonin dysregulation: Neonatal biomarkers and causal factors for ASD and ADHD phenotypes.

    PubMed

    Hellmer, Kahl; Nyström, Pär

    2017-03-01

    Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and ADHD are common neurodevelopmental disorders that benefit from early intervention but currently suffer from late detection and diagnosis: neurochemical dysregulations are extant already at birth but clinical phenotypes are not distinguishable until preschool age or later. The vast heterogeneity between subjects' phenotypes relates to interaction between multiple unknown factors, making research on factor causality insurmountable. To unlock this situation we pose the hypothesis that atypical pupillary light responses from rods, cones, and the recently discovered ipRGC system reflect early acetylcholine, melatonin, and dopamine dysregulation that are sufficient but not necessary factors for developing ASD and/or ADHD disorders. Current technology allows non-invasive cost-efficient assessment already from the first postnatal month. The benefits of the current proposal are: identification of clinical subgroups based on cause rather than phenotypes; facilitation of research on other causal factors; neonatal prediction of later diagnoses; and guidance for targeted therapeutical intervention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Mapping historical information for better understanding the causality factors of past disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

    2015-04-01

    The Flood Directive of 2007 promotes the use of historical information in order to mitigate the impact of future extreme events. According to this text, the study of past events offers new insights for better understanding the causality factors of a disaster, from hydrometeorological keys to socio-political repercussions of the flood. In this presentation we decided to focus on the study of factors leading to the exceptionality of a hydrological flood event. This aspect is regularly pointed out by the feedbacks carried out after a catastrophic event and remains a subject of debate for risk managers. The role of antecedent meteorological conditions is especially underestimated by local authorities. These factors can however be considered as a key issue to appreciate the exceptional character of a hydrological disaster. For example the 2013 June floods in France that affected the region of Pyrenees revealed the significant contribution of snow melting to the discharges recorded. In an article of 2014, Schröter et al. showed that the soil moisture can be considered as a key driver of the generalised flood hazard intensity that affected Germany over the same month of June 2013. With regard to these assessments, some considerations emerge. Does a diachronic appraisal of past disasters point out the main issues responsible for an exceptional flood hazard level? Is there common causality issues involved into these extreme hydrological events? In order to answer these questions this presentation proposes a comparative analysis of nine major floods that impacted the French territory during the XXth century (from 1910 to 2010). The set is composed by different flood typologies (from torrential events to floods resulting from groundwater level rising) so as to get a complete view of flood risk in France. The methodology proposed relies on a cartographic approach to highlight the causality factors of these past hydrological disasters. For instance, mapping the rainfall data

  10. Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jian John; Xing, Yingying; Wang, Chen; Cai, Xiaonan

    2016-01-01

    With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011-2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50-79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient. This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.

  11. Evaluating the impact of implementation factors on family-based prevention programming: methods for strengthening causal inference.

    PubMed

    Crowley, D Max; Coffman, Donna L; Feinberg, Mark E; Greenberg, Mark T; Spoth, Richard L

    2014-04-01

    Despite growing recognition of the important role implementation plays in successful prevention efforts, relatively little work has sought to demonstrate a causal relationship between implementation factors and participant outcomes. In turn, failure to explore the implementation-to-outcome link limits our understanding of the mechanisms essential to successful programming. This gap is partially due to the inability of current methodological procedures within prevention science to account for the multitude of confounders responsible for variation in implementation factors (i.e., selection bias). The current paper illustrates how propensity and marginal structural models can be used to improve causal inferences involving implementation factors not easily randomized (e.g., participant attendance). We first present analytic steps for simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple implementation factors on prevention program outcome. Then, we demonstrate this approach for evaluating the impact of enrollment and attendance in a family program, over and above the impact of a school-based program, within PROSPER, a large-scale real-world prevention trial. Findings illustrate the capacity of this approach to successfully account for confounders that influence enrollment and attendance, thereby more accurately representing true causal relations. For instance, after accounting for selection bias, we observed a 5% reduction in the prevalence of 11th grade underage drinking for those who chose to receive a family program and school program compared to those who received only the school program. Further, we detected a 7% reduction in underage drinking for those with high attendance in the family program.

  12. British army air corps accidents, 1991-2010: a review of contrasting decades.

    PubMed

    Adams, Mark S; Curry, Ian P; Gaydos, Steven J

    2014-08-01

    Accident investigation and review are important not only to attribute failure modes, but also mitigate risk, improve safety, and enhance capability. It was hypothesized that an interesting perspective on British Army Air Corps (AAC) rotary-wing (RW) accidents may be garnered by contrasting data from the previous two decades with a general operational (OP) shift from European theaters of conflict to operations in Southwest Asia. AAC mishaps for the period from January 1991 through December 2010 were reviewed within an air safety management system. Accidents, defined by category 4 or 5 aircraft damage or death or major injury of personnel, were selected. Analysis was conducted jointly by a minimum of two specialists in aviation medicine. There were 37 accidents that occurred in 6 differing airframes at an average rate of 2.5 per 100,000 flying hours. From 1991-2000, 25 accidents (9 OP) occurred with a rate of 2.8 per 100,000 flying hours. From 2001-2010, 12 accidents (5 OP) occurred with a rate of 2.1 per 100,000 flying hours. Aircrew human factors (HF) errors represented 84% of attributable causation for both decades. Spatial disorientation (SD) represented a higher proportion of HF-related accidents for OP flying. Despite the perception of a more difficult OP theater for the latter decade, the overall rate and the proportion of OP accidents did not differ appreciably. Rather than theater-specific threats or challenges, it has been the longstanding and prominent player of HF error and specifically SD in OP flying that has remained entrenched in the causal chain.

  13. Individual factors explain neighbourhood variations in accidents to children under 5 years of age.

    PubMed

    Reading, Richard; Jones, Andrew; Haynes, Robin; Daras, Konstantinos; Emond, Alan

    2008-09-01

    Previous studies have identified possible neighbourhood-level influences on the risk of injuries to preschool children, but none have had sufficient data at both household and area level to explain these neighbourhood effects. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, which recruited over 14,062 children at birth in the former county of Avon, UK, and collected information about accidents, as well as extensive social, health and developmental data throughout the first 5 years of life. This information was combined with census and geographical data in order to identify neighbourhood influences on accident risks and then attempt to explain these using multilevel regression modelling. A small but statistically significant amount of between-neighbourhood variance in accident risk was found, with neighbourhood intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.82% for any accident, and 0.84% for accidents resulting in injury requiring medical attention. This was entirely accounted for by a variety of child, parental and household level variables. Independent risk factors for both outcomes were children who were developmentally more advanced or displayed greater conduct and behavioural problems, mothers who were of younger age, who were without work, who were smokers, whose partners were unemployed or drank alcohol excessively, and households in which there had recently been adverse life events, or which were under financial stress. The mother's perceptions of neighbourhood quality also explained some of the risks for any accident, but not for medically attended accidents, and this was a variable that operated at the level of individual households rather than at the level of neighbourhoods. The implications of this study are that differences in accident risk between neighbourhoods are explained by geographical clustering of similar types of children, families and households. Interventions should focus more on parental factors and household social

  14. [A large-scale accident in Alpine terrain].

    PubMed

    Wildner, M; Paal, P

    2015-02-01

    Due to the geographical conditions, large-scale accidents amounting to mass casualty incidents (MCI) in Alpine terrain regularly present rescue teams with huge challenges. Using an example incident, specific conditions and typical problems associated with such a situation are presented. The first rescue team members to arrive have the elementary tasks of qualified triage and communication to the control room, which is required to dispatch the necessary additional support. Only with a clear "concept", to which all have to adhere, can the subsequent chaos phase be limited. In this respect, a time factor confounded by adverse weather conditions or darkness represents enormous pressure. Additional hazards are frostbite and hypothermia. If priorities can be established in terms of urgency, then treatment and procedure algorithms have proven successful. For evacuation of causalities, a helicopter should be strived for. Due to the low density of hospitals in Alpine regions, it is often necessary to distribute the patients over a wide area. Rescue operations in Alpine terrain have to be performed according to the particular conditions and require rescue teams to have specific knowledge and expertise. The possibility of a large-scale accident should be considered when planning events. With respect to optimization of rescue measures, regular training and exercises are rational, as is the analysis of previous large-scale Alpine accidents.

  15. Associations between task, training and social environmental factors and error types involved in rail incidents and accidents.

    PubMed

    Read, Gemma J M; Lenné, Michael G; Moss, Simon A

    2012-09-01

    Rail accidents can be understood in terms of the systemic and individual contributions to their causation. The current study was undertaken to determine whether errors and violations are more often associated with different local and organisational factors that contribute to rail accidents. The Contributing Factors Framework (CFF), a tool developed for the collection and codification of data regarding rail accidents and incidents, was applied to a sample of investigation reports. In addition, a more detailed categorisation of errors was undertaken. Ninety-six investigation reports into Australian accidents and incidents occurring between 1999 and 2008 were analysed. Each report was coded independently by two experienced coders. Task demand factors were significantly more often associated with skill-based errors, knowledge and training deficiencies significantly associated with mistakes, and violations significantly linked to social environmental factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Noise as an explanatory factor in work-related fatality reports

    PubMed Central

    Deshaies, Pierre; Martin, Richard; Belzile, Danny; Fortier, Pauline; Laroche, Chantal; Leroux, Tony; Nélisse, Hugues; Girard, Serge-André; Arcand, Robert; Poulin, Maurice; Picard, Michel

    2015-01-01

    Noise exposure in the workplace is a common reality in Québec, Canada as it is elsewhere. However, the extent to which noise acts as a causal or contributive factor in industrial work-related accidents has not been studied thoroughly despite its plausibility. This article aims to describe the importance or potential importance, during investigations looking into the specific causes of each work-related fatal accident, of noise as an explanatory factor. The written information contained in the accident reports pertaining to contextual and technical elements were used. The study used multiple case qualitative content analysis. This descriptive study was based on the content analysis of the 788 reports from the Commission de la santé et de la sécurité du travail du Québec [Workers’ Compensation Board (WCB)] investigating the fatal work-related accidents between 1990 and 2005. The study was descriptive (number and percentages). Noise was explicitly stated as one of the explanatory factors for the fatal outcome in 2.2% (17/788) of the fatal accidents, particularly when the work involved vehicular movement or the need to communicate between workers. Noise was not typically considered a unique cause in the accident, notably because the investigators considered that the accident would have probably occurred due to other risk factors (for example, disregard of safety rules, shortcomings in work methods, and inadequate training). Noise is an important risk factor when communication is involved in work. Since noise is ubiquitous and may also interfere with vigilance and other risk factors for accidents, it may be a much more important contributing factor to accidents than is currently recognized. PMID:26356371

  17. Noise as an explanatory factor in work-related fatality reports.

    PubMed

    Deshaies, Pierre; Martin, Richard; Belzile, Danny; Fortier, Pauline; Laroche, Chantal; Leroux, Tony; Nélisse, Hugues; Girard, Serge-André; Arcand, Robert; Poulin, Maurice; Picard, Michel

    2015-01-01

    Noise exposure in the workplace is a common reality in Québec, Canada as it is elsewhere. However, the extent to which noise acts as a causal or contributive factor in industrial work-related accidents has not been studied thoroughly despite its plausibility. This article aims to describe the importance or potential importance, during investigations looking into the specific causes of each work-related fatal accident, of noise as an explanatory factor. The written information contained in the accident reports pertaining to contextual and technical elements were used. The study used multiple case qualitative content analysis. This descriptive study was based on the content analysis of the 788 reports from the Commission de la santé et de la sécurité du travail du Québec [Workers' Compensation Board (WCB)] investigating the fatal work-related accidents between 1990 and 2005. The study was descriptive (number and percentages). Noise was explicitly stated as one of the explanatory factors for the fatal outcome in 2.2% (17/788) of the fatal accidents, particularly when the work involved vehicular movement or the need to communicate between workers. Noise was not typically considered a unique cause in the accident, notably because the investigators considered that the accident would have probably occurred due to other risk factors (for example, disregard of safety rules, shortcomings in work methods, and inadequate training). Noise is an important risk factor when communication is involved in work. Since noise is ubiquitous and may also interfere with vigilance and other risk factors for accidents, it may be a much more important contributing factor to accidents than is currently recognized.

  18. Analyzing injury severity factors at highway railway grade crossing accidents involving vulnerable road users: A comparative study.

    PubMed

    Ghomi, Haniyeh; Bagheri, Morteza; Fu, Liping; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

    2016-11-16

    The main objective of this study is to identify the main factors associated with injury severity of vulnerable road users (VRUs) involved in accidents at highway railroad grade crossings (HRGCs) using data mining techniques. This article applies an ordered probit model, association rules, and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms to the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) HRGC accident database for the period 2007-2013 to identify VRU injury severity factors at HRGCs. The results show that train speed is a key factor influencing injury severity. Further analysis illustrated that the presence of illumination does not reduce the severity of accidents for high-speed trains. In addition, there is a greater propensity toward fatal accidents for elderly road users compared to younger individuals. Interestingly, at night, injury accidents involving female road users are more severe compared to those involving males. The ordered probit model was the primary technique, and CART and association rules act as the supporter and identifier of interactions between variables. All 3 algorithms' results consistently show that the most influential accident factors are train speed, VRU age, and gender. The findings of this research could be applied for identifying high-risk hotspots and developing cost-effective countermeasures targeting VRUs at HRGCs.

  19. Causal inference in public health.

    PubMed

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  20. Psychophysiological and other factors affecting human performance in accident prevention and investigation. [Comparison of aviation with other industries

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Klinestiver, L.R.

    Psychophysiological factors are not uncommon terms in the aviation incident/accident investigation sequence where human error is involved. It is highly suspect that the same psychophysiological factors may also exist in the industrial arena where operator personnel function; but, there is little evidence in literature indicating how management and subordinates cope with these factors to prevent or reduce accidents. It is apparent that human factors psychophysological training is quite evident in the aviation industry. However, while the industrial arena appears to analyze psychophysiological factors in accident investigations, there is little evidence that established training programs exist for supervisors and operator personnel.

  1. Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, E. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

  2. Rates and causes of accidents for general aviation aircraft operating in a mountainous and high elevation terrain environment.

    PubMed

    Aguiar, Marisa; Stolzer, Alan; Boyd, Douglas D

    2017-10-01

    Flying over mountainous and/or high elevation terrain is challenging due to rapidly changeable visibility, gusty/rotor winds and downdrafts and the necessity of terrain avoidance. Herein, general aviation accident rates and mishap cause/factors were determined (2001-2014) for a geographical region characterized by such terrain. Accidents in single piston engine-powered aircraft for states west of the US continental divide characterized by mountainous terrain and/or high elevation (MEHET) were identified from the NTSB database. MEHET-related-mishaps were defined as satisfying any one, or more, criteria (controlled flight into terrain/obstacles (CFIT), downdrafts, mountain obscuration, wind-shear, gusting winds, whiteout, instrument meteorological conditions; density altitude, dust-devil) cited as factors/causal in the NTSB report. Statistics employed Poisson distribution and contingency tables. Although the MEHET-related accident rate declined (p<0.001) 57% across the study period, the high proportion of fatal accidents showed little (40-43%) diminution (χ 2 =0.935). CFIT and wind gusts/shear were the most frequent accident cause/factor categories. For CFIT accidents, half occurred in degraded visibility with only 9% operating under instrument flight rules (IFR) and the majority (85%) involving non-turbo-charged engine-powered aircraft. For wind-gust/shear-related accidents, 44% occurred with a cross-wind exceeding the maximum demonstrated aircraft component. Accidents which should have been survivable but which nevertheless resulted in a fatal outcome were characterized by poor accessibility (60%) and shoulder harness under-utilization (41%). Despite a declining MEHET-related accident rate, these mishaps still carry an elevated risk of a fatal outcome. Airmen should be encouraged to operate in this environment utilizing turbo-charged-powered airplanes and flying under IFR to assure terrain clearance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. [FROM STATISTICAL ASSOCIATIONS TO SCIENTIFIC CAUSALITY].

    PubMed

    Golan, Daniel; Linn, Shay

    2015-06-01

    The pathogenesis of most chronic diseases is complex and probably involves the interaction of multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. One way to learn about disease triggers is from statistically significant associations in epidemiological studies. However, associations do not necessarily prove causation. Associations can commonly result from bias, confounding and reverse causation. Several paradigms for causality inference have been developed. Henle-Koch postulates are mainly applied for infectious diseases. Austin Bradford Hill's criteria may serve as a practical tool to weigh the evidence regarding the probability that a single new risk factor for a given disease is indeed causal. These criteria are irrelevant for estimating the causal relationship between exposure to a risk factor and disease whenever biological causality has been previously established. Thus, it is highly probable that past exposure of an individual to definite carcinogens is related to his cancer, even without proving an association between this exposure and cancer in his group. For multifactorial diseases, Rothman's model of interacting sets of component causes can be applied.

  4. Incidence and related factors of traffic accidents among the older population in a rapidly aging society.

    PubMed

    Hong, Kimyong; Lee, Kyoung-Mu; Jang, Soong-nang

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the incidence of traffic accidents and find related factors among the older population. We used the cross-sectional data from the Korean Community Health Survey (KCHS), which was conducted between 2008 and 2010 and completed by 680,202 adults aged 19 years or more. And we used individuals aged 60 years or above (n=210,914). The incidence of traffic accidents was estimated as number of traffic accidents experienced per thousand per year by a number of factors including age, sex, residential area, education, employment status, and diagnosis with chronic diseases. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each potential risk factor adjusted for the others. Incidence of traffic accidents was estimated as 11.74/1,000 per year for men, and 7.65/1,000 per year for women. It tended to decline as age increased among women; compared to the youngest old age group (60-64), the older old groups (70-74 and 80+) were at lower risk for traffic accidents. Depressive symptom was the strongest predictor for both men (OR=1.83, 95% CI=1.28-2.61) and women (1.70, 1.23-2.35). Risk of traffic accident was greater in employed men (1.76, 1.40-2.22) and women diagnosis with arthritis (1.36, 1.06-1.75). Given that the incidence of and factors associated with traffic accidents differ between men and women, preventive strategies, such as driver education and traffic safety counseling for older adults, should be modified in accordance with these differences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Evaluating the Impact of Implementation Factors on Family-Based Prevention Programming: Methods for Strengthening Causal Inference

    PubMed Central

    Crowley, D. Max; Coffman, Donna L.; Feinberg, Mark; Greenberg, Mark; Spoth, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the important role implementation plays in successful prevention efforts, relatively little work has sought to demonstrate a causal relationship between implementation factors and participant outcomes. In turn, failure to explore the implementation-to-outcome link limits our understanding of the mechanisms essential to successful programming. This gap is partially due to the inability of current methodological procedures within prevention science to account for the multitude of confounders responsible for variation in implementation factors (i.e., selection bias). The current paper illustrates how propensity and marginal structural models can be used to improve causal inferences involving implementation factors not easily randomized (e.g., participant attendance). We first present analytic steps for simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple implementation factors on prevention program outcome. Then we demonstrate this approach for evaluating the impact of enrollment and attendance in a family program, over and above the impact of a school-based program, within PROSPER, a large scale real-world prevention trial. Findings illustrate the capacity of this approach to successfully account for confounders that influence enrollment and attendance, thereby more accurately representing true causal relations. For instance, after accounting for selection bias, we observed a 5% reduction in the prevalence of 11th grade underage drinking for those who chose to receive a family program and school program compared to those who received only the school program. Further, we detected a 7% reduction in underage drinking for those with high attendance in the family program. PMID:23430578

  6. The impact of environmental factors on traffic accidents in Iran.

    PubMed

    Lankarani, Kamran B; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Aghabeigi, Mohammad Reza; Moafian, Ghasem; Hoseinzadeh, Amin; Vossoughi, Mehrdad

    2014-07-01

    Road traffic crashes are the third highest cause of mortality in Iran. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of roadway environmental factors on traffic crash. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Iran between March 21, 2010 and December 30, 2010. The data on road traffic crashes were obtained from the Traffic Police Department records. These records were classified to control for the main confounders related to the type of crash and roadway environmental factors. Roadway environmental factors included crash scene light, weather, place of accident, the defects and geometrics of roadway and road surface. The study included 542,863 traffic crashes. The proportions of road traffic crash which led to injury were 24.44% at sunrise and 27.16% at sunset compared with 5.43% and 1.43% deaths at sunrise and sunset respectively. In regard to day time accidents, the proportions were 20.50% injuries and 0.55% deaths. The statistical analysis of the results showed that the ratio of injuries and deaths were significantly higher at sunrise and sunset than those occurring during daytime (P less than 0.001). The highest rate of death (5.07%) was due to dusty weather compared to 5.07% for other weather conditions (P less than 0.001). The highest mortality rate (3.45%) occurred on oily surfaces (P less than 0.001). The defective traffic signs were responsible for 30,046 injuries and 5.58% deaths, and road narrowing accounted for 22,775 injuries and, 4.23% deaths which indicated that the roadway defects inflict most frequent injuries and deaths. The lowest (0.74 %) and highest (3.09%) proportion of traffic crash- related deaths were due to flat straight and winding uphill/downhill roads respectively (P less than 0.001). Sunrise, sunset, dusty weather, oily road surfaces and winding uphill/downhill road were hazardous environmental factors. This study provides an insight into the potential impacts of environmental factors on road traffic accidents and underlines the

  7. [Keys to preventing accidents in children in the school context].

    PubMed

    Gabari Gambarte, M Inés; Sáenz Mendía, Raquel

    2016-11-02

    To learn about children's perception of the causes and prevention strategies involved in school accidents. The sample included 584 school children aged 8-9 years from Navarra. A mixed design was chosen by questionnaire with three open-response questions and one multiple-choice assessment. Analysis was performed in two phases: 1) qualitative development of categories and dimensions of the responses of narrative content, and 2) quantitative variables for recoding correlational analysis. 22 categories emerged, which make up three perceptual dimensions: 1) attribution of causality (5), 2) identification of mechanisms of avoidance (11), and 3) development of coping strategies (6). The correlation intra-variables portray varying degrees: on the one hand, moderate positive numbers (r>0.5) in allocating and identifying causality avoidance mechanisms and, on the other hand, high positive correlation values (r>0.7) referred to developing coping strategies. Children are able to identify accidents as a health problem. They question the multiplicity of elements involved and relate the origin and kind of accident to prevention and support mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown of Tehran City.

    PubMed

    Moradi, Ali; Rahmani, Khaled; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zainni, Slahedyn; Soori, Hamid

    2018-02-20

    The aim of this study was to geographically analyse the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown of Tehran City. Study population consisted of pedestrians who had traffic injury accidents from April 2014 to March 2015 in Tehran City. Data were extracted from the offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were used. All pedestrian accidents including 514 accidents were assessed in this study in which the site of accidents included arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%) and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with the number of bus stations, number of crossroads and recreational areas. Neighbourhoods close to markets are considered as the most dangerous places for injury in traffic accidents.

  9. A review of human factors causations in commercial air transport accidents and incidents: From to 2000-2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kharoufah, Husam; Murray, John; Baxter, Glenn; Wild, Graham

    2018-05-01

    Human factors have been defined by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as "about people in their living and working situations; about their relationship with machines, with procedures and with the environment about them; and about their relationships with other people (at work)". Human factors contribute to approximately 75% of aircraft accidents and incidents. As such, understanding their influence is essential to improve safety in the aviation industry. This study examined the different human factors causations in a random sample of over 200 commercial air transport accidents and incidents from 2000 to 2016. The main objective of this study was to identify the principal human factor contributions to aviation accidents and incidents. An exploratory research design was utilised. The qualitative data were recorded in a database, and were coded into categories about the flights (including date, manufacturer, carrier, state of occurrence, etc). These categories were then analysed using Chi-Squared tests to determine which were statistically significant in terms of having an influence on the accidents/incidents. The most significant human factor was found to be situational awareness followed by non-adherence to procedures. In addition, charter operations proved to have a significantly higher rate of human factor related occurrence as compared to other type of operations. A significant finding was that Africa has a high rate of accidents/incidents relative to the amount of traffic and aircraft movements. These findings reflect some of the more noteworthy incidents that have received significant media attention, including Air Asia 8501 on the 28th of December 2014, TransAsia Airways 235 on the 4th of February 2015, and Air France 447 on the 1st of June 2009; these accidents resulted in a significant loss of lives where situational awareness and non-adherence to procedures were significant contributing factors.

  10. Key factors contributing to accident severity rate in construction industry in Iran: a regression modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Soltanzadeh, Ahmad; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Ghiasvand, Reza

    2016-03-01

    Construction industry involves the highest risk of occupational accidents and bodily injuries, which range from mild to very severe. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify the factors associated with accident severity rate (ASR) in the largest Iranian construction companies based on data about 500 occupational accidents recorded from 2009 to 2013. We also gathered data on safety and health risk management and training systems. Data were analysed using Pearson's chi-squared coefficient and multiple regression analysis. Median ASR (and the interquartile range) was 107.50 (57.24- 381.25). Fourteen of the 24 studied factors stood out as most affecting construction accident severity (p<0.05). These findings can be applied in the design and implementation of a comprehensive safety and health risk management system to reduce ASR.

  11. Dance partner or dance floor?: exogenous factors resulting in accidents in professional dancers.

    PubMed

    Wanke, Eileen M; Mill, Helmgard; Wanke, Alice; Davenport, Jaqueline; Checcetti, Fistd; Koch, Franziska; Groneberg, David A

    2013-09-01

    Injury prevention in professional dancers is very important due to the high risk for acute injuries posing a threat to dancers' careers. Causative factors of acute injuries in professional dance can be divided into exogenous and endogenous factors. Although both are known in professional dance, there is still a lack of data to have a differentiated view. The aim of this study is to analyze exogenous factors resulting in work accidents of professional dancers. The data for the evaluation were obtained from work accident reports (n = 1,438, female 722, male 716) from six Berlin Theatres. Evaluation and descriptive statistics were conducted by SPSS 18 and Excel 2007. About half (48.5%, n = 698) of all work accidents are caused by exogenous factors. The "dance partner" is the most common exogenous factor (39.9%), followed by the dance floor (28.24%) and props (13.6%). The lower extremity is the most frequent structure injured in either sex (male 47.3%, female 61.3%), followed by the upper extremity in females (14.6%) and spine in male dancers (19.8%). The stage is the most common injury location in both genders (males 63.9%, females 56.8%). Acute injuries caused by exogenous factors were particularly sustained during performances (males 58.8%, females 50.5%) and during rehearsals (males 33%, females 39.9%). This study shows the key significance of exogenous factors in acute injuries in professional dance. Preserving the dancers' health and preventing injuries takes top priority, and therefore, interventions in the artistic work cannot be ruled out when preventive measures are implemented.

  12. Workshop on Flight Crew Accident and Incident Human Factors Proceedings (MS Word file)

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1995-06-01

    On June 21 - 23, 1995, the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Office of : System Safety, as part of its Human Factors Data Project, convened the Workshop : on Flight Crew Accident and Incident Human Factors at The MITRE Corporation in : McLean...

  13. Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Samuel G. B.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge--an interconnected causal "network," where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms--causal "islands"--such that events in different…

  14. Factors associated with prehospital death among traffic accident patients in Osaka City, Japan: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Katayama, Yusuke; Kitamura, Tetsuhisa; Kiyohara, Kosuke; Iwami, Taku; Kawamura, Takashi; Hayashida, Sumito; Ogura, Hiroshi; Shimazu, Takeshi

    2018-01-02

    Although it is important to assess the factors associated with traffic accident fatalities to decrease them as a matter of public health, such factors have not been fully identified. Using a large-scale data set of ambulance records in Osaka City, Japan, we retrospectively analyzed all traffic accident patients transported to hospitals by emergency medical service personnel from 2013 to 2014. In this study, prehospital death was defined as that occurring at the scene or in the emergency department immediately after hospital arrival. We assessed prehospital factors associated with prehospital death due to traffic accidents by logistic regression models. This study enrolled 28,903 emergency patients involved in traffic accidents, of whom 68 died prehospital. In a multivariate model, elderly patients aged ≥75 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.29-8.23), nighttime (AOR = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.65-4.70), and type of injured person compared to bicyclists such as pedestrians (AOR = 9.58; 95% CI, 5.07-17.99), motorcyclists (AOR = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.21-6.24), and car occupants (AOR = 2.98; 95% CI, 1.39-6.40) were significantly associated with prehospital death due to traffic accidents. In addition, the AOR for automobile versus nonautomobile as the collision opponent was 4.76 (95% CI, 2.30-9.88). In this population, the factors associated with prehospital death due to traffic accidents were elderly people, nighttime, and pedestrian as the type of patient. The proportion of prehospital deaths due to traffic accidents was also high when the collision component was an automobile.

  15. [Risk factors associated with work-related accidents in the construction industry in the Valley of Mexico].

    PubMed

    Sarmiento-Salinas, Rodrigo; López-Rojas, Pablo; Marín-Cotoñieto, Irma Araceli; Godínez-Rocha, Arturo; Haro-García, Luis; Salinas-Tovar, Santiago

    2004-01-01

    Our aim was to describe construction-industry, work-related accident prevalence in, associated factors in, and potential impact on affiliated workers of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, IMSS) in the Valley of Mexico. Prevalent cases in a retrospective case-control design. These include 385 construction-industry workers who were found to have construction work-related accidents in 2001. Controls comprised 385 active construction-industry workers without work-related accident background paired by gender, workplace, and worksite. Work-related accident prevalence in construction workers was 5.5%; most important risk factors and etiology fraction (Ef) included the following: age 16-20 years odds ratio, OR = 1.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.40-10.7, p = 0.001, Ef 0.36; eventual insurance, OR = 3.7, 95% CI, 2.16-26.45, p = 0.001), Ef, 0.72, and no training for job, OR = 5.3, 95% CI, 4.9-69.2, p = 0.01), Ef: 0.81. Variables not showing significance were included salary, work shift, and workday. Work-related accident prevalence maintains its preponderance in the Valley of Mexico construction industry; identified risk factors are potentially modifiable, among which job training acquires unquestionable relevance.

  16. Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Samuel G B; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2015-09-01

    Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge—an interconnected causal network, where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms—causal islands—such that events in different mechanisms are not thought to be related even when they belong to the same causal chain. To distinguish these possibilities, we tested whether people make transitive judgments about causal chains by inferring, given A causes B and B causes C, that A causes C. Specifically, causal chains schematized as one chunk or mechanism in semantic memory (e.g., exercising, becoming thirsty, drinking water) led to transitive causal judgments. On the other hand, chains schematized as multiple chunks (e.g., having sex, becoming pregnant, becoming nauseous) led to intransitive judgments despite strong intermediate links ((Experiments 1-3). Normative accounts of causal intransitivity could not explain these intransitive judgments (Experiments 4 and 5). Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  17. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

  18. Analysis of factors associated with traffic accidents of cyclists attended in Brazilian state capitals.

    PubMed

    Sousa, Carlos Augusto Moreira de; Bahia, Camila Alves; Constantino, Patrícia

    2016-12-01

    Brazil has the sixth largest bicycles fleet in the world and bicycle is the most used individual transport vehicle in the country. Few studies address the issue of cyclists' accidents and factors that contribute to or prevent this event. VIVA is a cross-sectional survey and is part of the Violence and Accidents Surveillance System, Brazilian Ministry of Health. We used complex sampling and subsequent data review through multivariate logistic regression and calculation of the respective odds ratios. Odds ratios showed greater likelihood of cyclists' accidents in males, people with less schooling and living in urban and periurban areas. People who were not using the bike to go to work were more likely to suffer an accident. The profile found in this study corroborates findings of other studies. They claim that the coexistence of cyclists and other means of transportation in the same urban space increases the likelihood of accidents. The construction of bicycle-exclusive spaces and educational campaigns are required.

  19. Aviation occupant survival factors: an empirical study of the SQ006 accident.

    PubMed

    Chang, Yu-Hern; Yang, Hui-Hua

    2010-03-01

    We present an empirical study of Singapore Airline (SIA) flight SQ006 to illustrate the critical factors that influence airplane occupant survivability. The Fuzzy Delphi Method was used to identify and rank the survival factors that may reduce injury and fatality in potentially survivable accidents. This is the first attempt by a group from both the public and private sectors in Taiwan to focus on cabin-safety issues related to survival factors. We designed a comprehensive survey based on our discussions with aviation safety experts. We next designed an array of important cabin-safety dimensions and then investigated and selected the critical survival factors for each dimension. Our findings reveal important cabin safety and survivability information that should provide a valuable reference for developing and evaluating aviation safety programs. We also believe that the results will be practical for designing cabin-safety education material for air travelers. Finally, the major contribution of this research is that it has identified 47 critical factors that influence accident survivability; therefore, it may encourage improvements that will promote more successful cabin-safety management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  1. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. Themore » research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.« less

  2. Factors associated with nurses' intention to leave their jobs after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Sato, Yoshinobu; Hayashida, Naomi; Orita, Makiko; Urata, Hideko; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Nakashima, Yumiko; Kudo, Takashi; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a survey among nurses who were working at the Fukushima Medical University Hospital at the time of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident to clarify the factors associated with their intention to leave their jobs during the radiation emergency. We asked 345 nurses (17 men and 328 women) about their intention to leave their jobs after the accident. We also asked about relevant factors including the participants' demographic factors, living situation, working status, and knowledge of radiation health effects. We found that living with preschoolers (OR = 1.87, 95%CI: 1.02-3.44, p = 0.042), anxiety about life in Fukushima City after the accident (OR = 5.55, 95%CI: 1.18-26.13, p = 0.030), consideration of evacuation from Fukushima after the accident (OR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.45-4.06, p = 0.001), consideration of the possible radiation health effects in children (OR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.02-3.44, p = 0.042), and anxiety about relationships with colleagues in the hospital after the accident (OR = 3.23, p = 0.001) were independently associated with the nurses' intention to leave their jobs after the accident. On the other hand, the percentage of nurses with knowledge on radiation health effects was relatively low among those who had the intention to leave the job and among those who did not have the intention to leave the job after the accident, with no significant differences between the two groups. Our results suggest the need for an education program for nurses regarding radiation health effects.

  3. Prevalence of facial trauma and associated factors in victims of road traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Nóbrega, Lorena Marques; Cavalcante, Gigliana M S; Lima, Monalyza M S M; Madruga, Renata C R; Ramos-Jorge, Maria Letícia; d'Avila, Sérgio

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of facial trauma among victims of road traffic accidents and investigate factors associated with it. A cross-sectional study was carried out using the medical and dental charts of 2570 victims of road traffic accidents with bodily and/or facial injuries between 2008 and 2011. Sociodemographic variables of the victims and characteristics of the accidents and injuries were evaluated. Statistical analyses included the χ(2) test as well as the Poisson univariate and multivariate regression analyses for the determination of the final hierarchical model. The prevalence of facial injuries was 16.4%. Most of the victims were male. Among the victims with facial injuries, 44.3% had polytrauma to the face. The prevalence of facial injuries was high among accidents that occurred at night (Prevalence Ratio (PR), 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.84; P = .007) and victims up to 9 years of age (PR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.03-5.17; P = .041). Moreover, the prevalence of facial injuries was lower among victims of motorcycle accidents than victims of automobile accidents (PR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44-0.89; P = .001). The prevalence of facial injuries was high in this study and was significantly associated with the place of residence, time of day, age group, and type of accident. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Factors influencing unsafe behaviors and accidents on construction sites: a review.

    PubMed

    Khosravi, Yahya; Asilian-Mahabadi, Hassan; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Hassanzadeh-Rangi, Narmin; Bastani, Hamid; Behzadan, Amir H

    2014-01-01

    Construction is a hazardous occupation due to the unique nature of activities involved and the repetitiveness of several field behaviors. The aim of this methodological and theoretical review is to explore the empirical factors influencing unsafe behaviors and accidents on construction sites. In this work, results and findings from 56 related previous studies were investigated. These studies were categorized based on their design, type, methods of data collection, analytical methods, variables, and key findings. A qualitative content analysis procedure was used to extract variables, themes, and factors. In addition, all studies were reviewed to determine the quality rating and to evaluate the strength of provided evidence. The content analysis identified 8 main categories: (a) society, (b) organization, (c) project management, (d) supervision, (e) contractor, (f) site condition, (g) work group, and (h) individual characteristics. The review highlighted the importance of more distal factors, e.g., society and organization, and project management, that may contribute to reducing the likelihood of unsafe behaviors and accidents through the promotion of site condition and individual features (as proximal factors). Further research is necessary to provide a better understanding of the links between unsafe behavior theories and empirical findings, challenge theoretical assumptions, develop new applied theories, and make stronger recommendations.

  5. A classification on human factor accident/incident of China civil aviation in recent twelve years.

    PubMed

    Luo, Xiao-li

    2004-10-01

    To study human factor accident/incident occurred during 1990-2001 using new classification standard. The human factor accident/incident classification standard is developed on the basis of Reason's Model, combining with CAAC's traditional classifying method, and applied to the classified statistical analysis for 361 flying incidents and 35 flight accidents of China civil aviation, which is induced by human factors and occurred from 1990 to 2001. 1) the incident percentage of taxi and cruise is higher than that of takeoff, climb and descent. 2) The dominating type of flight incidents is diverging of runway, overrunning, near-miss, tail/wingtip/engine strike and ground obstacle impacting. 3) The top three accidents are out of control caused by crew, mountain collision and over runway. 4) Crew's basic operating skill is lower than what we imagined, the mostly representation is poor correcting ability when flight error happened. 5) Crew errors can be represented by incorrect control, regulation and procedure violation, disorientation and diverging percentage of correct flight level. The poor CRM skill is the dominant factor impacting China civil aviation safety, this result has a coincidence with previous study, but there is much difference and distinct characteristic in top incident phase, the type of crew error and behavior performance compared with that of advanced countries. We should strengthen CRM training for all of pilots aiming at the Chinese pilot behavior characteristic in order to improve the safety level of China civil aviation.

  6. Causal imprinting in causal structure learning.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Eric G; Ahn, Woo-Kyoung

    2012-11-01

    Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures "causal imprinting." Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Causal Imprinting in Causal Structure Learning

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Eric G.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2012-01-01

    Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures “causal imprinting.” Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. PMID:22859019

  8. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    PubMed

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Longitudinal relationship between economic development and occupational accidents in China.

    PubMed

    Song, Li; He, Xueqiu; Li, Chengwu

    2011-01-01

    The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953-2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953-1978. Fatality rate per 10(5) workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979-2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979-2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Organizational factors related to occupational accidents in construction.

    PubMed

    Filho, J M Jackson; Fonseca, E D; Lima, F P A; Duarte, F J C M

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to understand the influence of organizational factors on occupational accident causation. A field study was undertaken and focused on the phase of concreting the floors of a residential block in a building project in Brazil. The methodological approach was based on the analysis of carpenters' work practices and of the workers' accounts of minor falls. Observations were noted on work practices over this stage. Furthermore, interviews were conducted with the workers hired by the subcontractors and with professionals working for the main contractor. The results show that falls were related to the introduction of new building technology and its use by the workforce. The production planning and organization of activities by the subcontracted firms also led to temporary demands that were additional determining factors for falls on site. The work analysis reveals the need to consider organizational factors in prevention practices.

  11. A review of civil aviation fatal accidents in which "lost/disoriented" was a cause/factor : 1981-1990.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1995-01-01

    The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) analyzes circumstances and data from civil aviation accidents and ascribes one or more causes and/or related factors to help explain each accident. Among the formally accepted NTSB categories of acciden...

  12. Rough set approach for accident chains exploration.

    PubMed

    Wong, Jinn-Tsai; Chung, Yi-Shih

    2007-05-01

    This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.

  13. The current role of alcohol as a factor in civil aircraft accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1980-05-01

    Ethyl alcohol continues as a serious adverse factor in general aviation flight safety. According to FAA figures, the level of alcohol-associated general aviation fatal accidents has remained relatively static at a 16% general level since 1969. A rece...

  14. Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

    2010-01-01

    Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

  15. Traumatic injury may be a predisposing factor for cerebrovascular accident.

    PubMed

    Wojcik, Jodi B; Benns, Matthew V; Franklin, Glen A; Harbrecht, Brian G; Broughton-Miller, Kimberly D; Frisbie, Michelle C; Smith, Jason W; Pentecost, Karina M; Bozeman, Matthew C

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess whether trauma may be an independent risk factor for stroke. Evidence has shown that trauma patients experience a hypercoagulable state postinjury, increasing the risk of thrombotic events. A case-controlled, retrospective analysis was performed on admitted trauma patients over a 2-year period. Results revealed that trauma patients are 1.6 times more likely to have a cerebrovascular accident (CVA) during their hospital admission, when compared with nontrauma patients with similar CVA risk factors. Several statistically significant differences between the groups were identified. On the basis of these results, trauma appears to be an independent, nonmodifiable risk factor for CVA.

  16. Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D

    2015-04-01

    Accidents in twin-engine aircraft carry a higher risk of fatality compared with single engine aircraft and constitute 9% of all general aviation accidents. The different flight profile (higher airspeed, service ceiling, increased fuel load, and aircraft yaw in engine failure) may make comparable studies on single-engine aircraft accident causes less relevant. The objective of this study was to identify the accident causes for non-commercial operations in twin engine aircraft. A NTSB accident database query for accidents in twin piston engine airplanes of 4-8 seat capacity with a maximum certified weight of 3000-8000lbs. operating under 14CFR Part 91 for the period spanning 2002 and 2012 returned 376 accidents. Accident causes and contributing factors were as per the NTSB final report categories. Total annual flight hour data for the twin engine piston aircraft fleet were obtained from the FAA. Statistical analyses employed Chi Square, Fisher's Exact and logistic regression analysis. Neither the combined fatal/non-fatal accident nor the fatal accident rate declined over the period spanning 2002-2012. Under visual weather conditions, the largest number, n=27, (27%) of fatal accidents was attributed to malfunction with a failure to follow single engine procedures representing the most common contributing factor. In degraded visibility, poor instrument approach procedures resulted in the greatest proportion of fatal crashes. Encountering thunderstorms was the most lethal of all accident causes with all occupants sustaining fatal injuries. At night, a failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance was the most common accident cause leading to 36% of fatal crashes. The results of logistic regression showed that operations at night (OR 3.7), off airport landings (OR 14.8) and post-impact fire (OR 7.2) all carried an excess risk of a fatal flight. This study indicates training areas that should receive increased emphasis for twin-engine training/recency. First, increased

  17. Factors Associated with Nurses’ Intention to Leave Their Jobs after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Sato, Yoshinobu; Hayashida, Naomi; Orita, Makiko; Urata, Hideko; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Nakashima, Yumiko; Kudo, Takashi; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a survey among nurses who were working at the Fukushima Medical University Hospital at the time of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident to clarify the factors associated with their intention to leave their jobs during the radiation emergency. We asked 345 nurses (17 men and 328 women) about their intention to leave their jobs after the accident. We also asked about relevant factors including the participants’ demographic factors, living situation, working status, and knowledge of radiation health effects. We found that living with preschoolers (OR = 1.87, 95%CI: 1.02–3.44, p = 0.042), anxiety about life in Fukushima City after the accident (OR = 5.55, 95%CI: 1.18–26.13, p = 0.030), consideration of evacuation from Fukushima after the accident (OR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.45–4.06, p = 0.001), consideration of the possible radiation health effects in children (OR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.02–3.44, p = 0.042), and anxiety about relationships with colleagues in the hospital after the accident (OR = 3.23, p = 0.001) were independently associated with the nurses’ intention to leave their jobs after the accident. On the other hand, the percentage of nurses with knowledge on radiation health effects was relatively low among those who had the intention to leave the job and among those who did not have the intention to leave the job after the accident, with no significant differences between the two groups. Our results suggest the need for an education program for nurses regarding radiation health effects. PMID:25816345

  18. A synthesis of studies of access point density as a risk factor for road accidents.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2017-10-01

    Studies of the relationship between access point density (number of access points, or driveways, per kilometre of road) and accident frequency or rate (number of accidents per unit of exposure) have consistently found that accident rate increases when access point density increases. This paper presents a formal synthesis of the findings of these studies. It was found that the addition of one access point per kilometre of road is associated with an increase of 4% in the expected number of accidents, controlling for traffic volume. Although studies consistently indicate an increase in accident rate as access point density increases, the size of the increase varies substantially between studies. In addition to reviewing studies of access point density as a risk factor, the paper discusses some issues related to formally synthesising regression coefficients by applying the inverse-variance method of meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Accident investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laynor, William G. Bud

    1987-01-01

    The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has attributed wind shear as a cause or contributing factor in 15 accidents involving transport-categroy airplanes since 1970. Nine of these were nonfatal; but the other six accounted for 440 lives. Five of the fatal accidents and seven of the nonfatal accidents involved encounters with convective downbursts or microbursts. Of other accidents, two which were nonfatal were encounters with a frontal system shear, and one which was fatal was the result of a terrain induced wind shear. These accidents are discussed with reference to helping the aircraft to avoid the wind shear or if impossible to help the pilot to get through the wind shear.

  20. Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

    PubMed

    Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

    2010-02-01

    Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

  1. Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

    PubMed

    Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P; Ellison, Christopher J

    2010-09-01

    We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding--a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

  2. Drug-disease association and drug-repositioning predictions in complex diseases using causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jihong; Li, Zheng; Fan, Xiaohui; Cheng, Yiyu

    2014-09-22

    The high incidence of complex diseases has become a worldwide threat to human health. Multiple targets and pathways are perturbed during the pathological process of complex diseases. Systematic investigation of complex relationship between drugs and diseases is necessary for new association discovery and drug repurposing. For this purpose, three causal networks were constructed herein for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms, respectively. A causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization (CI-PMF) approach was proposed to predict and classify drug-disease associations, and further used for drug-repositioning predictions. First, multilevel systematic relations between drugs and diseases were integrated from heterogeneous databases to construct causal networks connecting drug-target-pathway-gene-disease. Then, the association scores between drugs and diseases were assessed by evaluating a drug's effects on multiple targets and pathways. Furthermore, PMF models were learned based on known interactions, and associations were then classified into three types by trained models. Finally, therapeutic associations were predicted based upon the ranking of association scores and predicted association types. In terms of drug-disease association prediction, modified causal inference included in CI-PMF outperformed existing causal inference with a higher AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) score and greater precision. Moreover, CI-PMF performed better than single modified causal inference in predicting therapeutic drug-disease associations. In the top 30% of predicted associations, 58.6% (136/232), 50.8% (31/61), and 39.8% (140/352) hit known therapeutic associations, while precisions obtained by the latter were only 10.2% (231/2264), 8.8% (36/411), and 9.7% (189/1948). Clinical verifications were further conducted for the top 100 newly predicted therapeutic associations. As a result, 21, 12, and 32 associations have been studied and

  3. [Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the prostate of coalminers of Donbas--liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

    2013-12-01

    Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in prostate of Donbas's coalminer-non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a prostatic gland changes.

  4. Causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pearl, Judea

    2000-03-01

    Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

  5. An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

  6. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  7. Critical factors and paths influencing construction workers' safety risk tolerances.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jiayuan; Zou, Patrick X W; Li, Penny P

    2016-08-01

    While workers' safety risk tolerances have been regarded as a main reason for their unsafe behaviors, little is known about why different people have different risk tolerances even when confronting the same situation. The aim of this research is to identify the critical factors and paths that influence workers' safety risk tolerance and to explore how they contribute to accident causal model from a system thinking perceptive. A number of methods were carried out to analyze the data collected through interviews and questionnaire surveys. In the first and second steps of the research, factor identification, factor ranking and factor analysis were carried out, and the results show that workers' safety risk tolerance can be influenced by four groups of factors, namely: (1) personal subjective perception; (2) work knowledge and experiences; (3) work characteristics; and (4) safety management. In the third step of the research, hypothetical influencing path model was developed and tested by using structural equation modeling (SEM). It is found that the effects of external factors (safety management and work characteristics) on risk tolerance are larger than that of internal factors (personal subjective perception and work knowledge & experiences). Specifically, safety management contributes the most to workers' safety risk tolerance through its direct effect and indirect effect; while personal subjective perception comes the second and can act as an intermedia for work characteristics. This research provides an in-depth insight of workers' unsafe behaviors by depicting the contributing factors as shown in the accident causal model developed in this research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The relationship between safety climate and recent accidents: behavioral learning and cognitive attributions.

    PubMed

    Desai, Vinit M; Roberts, Karlene H; Ciavarelli, Anthony P

    2006-01-01

    The association between accidents and subsequent work unit safety perceptions was assessed to address cognitive and behavioral changes following accidents. Many studies attempt to predict accident rates using measures of work unit safety, but effects vary considerably. Conversely, this study examined whether recent accidents may be positively associated with work unit safety perceptions, as suggested by behavioral learning mechanisms (increases in safety investments following accidents) or cognitive mechanisms (defensive attributions regarding accident causality). Lagged squadron-level accident experience was correlated with work unit safety perceptions obtained through a 61-question safety climate survey administered to 6,361 individuals in U.S. Navy flight squadrons. Positive associations between minor or intermediately severe accidents and future safety climate scores were found, although no effect was found for major accidents. We suggest that accident history should be considered when examining work unit safety perceptions because recent accidents may be associated with higher safety climate scores. We did not find that this varies systematically with accident severity, and longitudinal research on additional samples is needed to further test this possibility. This research may be used to refine measurement of work unit safety and to examine impacts of accidents or safety violations on workers' cognitive processes and group behavioral changes.

  9. Quantum Common Causes and Quantum Causal Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, John-Mark A.; Barrett, Jonathan; Horsman, Dominic C.; Lee, Ciarán M.; Spekkens, Robert W.

    2017-07-01

    Reichenbach's principle asserts that if two observed variables are found to be correlated, then there should be a causal explanation of these correlations. Furthermore, if the explanation is in terms of a common cause, then the conditional probability distribution over the variables given the complete common cause should factorize. The principle is generalized by the formalism of causal models, in which the causal relationships among variables constrain the form of their joint probability distribution. In the quantum case, however, the observed correlations in Bell experiments cannot be explained in the manner Reichenbach's principle would seem to demand. Motivated by this, we introduce a quantum counterpart to the principle. We demonstrate that under the assumption that quantum dynamics is fundamentally unitary, if a quantum channel with input A and outputs B and C is compatible with A being a complete common cause of B and C , then it must factorize in a particular way. Finally, we show how to generalize our quantum version of Reichenbach's principle to a formalism for quantum causal models and provide examples of how the formalism works.

  10. Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Moradi, Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5-15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (<5 m: OR = 8.4, 95% CI: 3.3-21.5; 5-8 m: OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.8-12.2), distance from home to school((<100 m: OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0-2.8), existence of parking lot (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0-2.3), traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6-6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.

  11. Retrospective self-reports of childhood accidents causing unconsciousness in phallometrically diagnosed pedophiles.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Ray; Christensen, Bruce K; Strong, Scott M; Cantor, James M; Kuban, Michael E; Klassen, Philip; Dickey, Robert; Blak, Thomas

    2002-12-01

    The present study investigated whetherhead injuries in childhood might increase the risk of pedophilia in males. The subjects were 1206 patients referred to a clinical sexology service for assessment of their erotic preferences. These were classified, on the basis of phallometric test results, as pedophilic (n = 413) or nonpedophilic (n = 793). Information regarding early head injuries, other signs of possible neurodevelopmental problems, and parental histories of psychiatric treatment were collected with self-administered questionnaires. The results showed that childhood accidents that resulted in unconsciousness were associated with pedophilia and with lower levels of intelligence and education. These associations were statistically significant for accidents that occurred before the age of 6, but not for accidents that occurred between the ages of 6 and 12. These results are compatible with the hypothesis that neurodevelopmental perturbations in early childhood may increase the risk of pedophilia. They are also, however, compatible with the alternative explanation that prior neurodevelopmental problems lead to accident-proneness and head injury, on the one hand, and to pedophilia, on the other, and that head injury has no causal influence on pedophilia. A secondary finding was that the pedophiles were more likely to report that their mothers had undergone psychiatric treatment. This finding suggests that pedophilia may be influenced by genetic factors, which are manifested in women as an increased risk of psychiatric problems, and in their sons, as an increased risk of erotic interest in children.

  12. Personality, Driving Behavior and Mental Disorders Factors as Predictors of Road Traffic Accidents Based on Logistic Regression.

    PubMed

    Alavi, Seyyed Salman; Mohammadi, Mohammad Reza; Souri, Hamid; Mohammadi Kalhori, Soroush; Jannatifard, Fereshteh; Sepahbodi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of variables such as personality traits, driving behavior and mental illness on road traffic accidents among the drivers with accidents and those without road crash. In this cohort study, 800 bus and truck drivers were recruited. Participants were selected among drivers who referred to Imam Sajjad Hospital (Tehran, Iran) during 2013-2015. The Manchester driving behavior questionnaire (MDBQ), big five personality test (NEO personality inventory) and semi-structured interview (schizophrenia and affective disorders scale) were used. After two years, we surveyed all accidents due to human factors that involved the recruited drivers. The data were analyzed using the SPSS software by performing the descriptive statistics, t-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis methods. P values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. In terms of controlling the effective and demographic variables, the findings revealed significant differences between the two groups of drivers that were and were not involved in road accidents. In addition, it was found that depression and anxiety could increase the odds ratio (OR) of road accidents by 2.4- and 2.7-folds, respectively (P=0.04, P=0.004). It is noteworthy to mention that neuroticism alone can increase the odds of road accidents by 1.1-fold (P=0.009), but other personality factors did not have a significant effect on the equation. The results revealed that some mental disorders affect the incidence of road collisions. Considering the importance and sensitivity of driving behavior, it is necessary to evaluate multiple psychological factors influencing drivers before and after receiving or renewing their driver's license.

  13. Personality, Driving Behavior and Mental Disorders Factors as Predictors of Road Traffic Accidents Based on Logistic Regression

    PubMed Central

    Alavi, Seyyed Salman; Mohammadi, Mohammad Reza; Souri, Hamid; Mohammadi Kalhori, Soroush; Jannatifard, Fereshteh; Sepahbodi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of variables such as personality traits, driving behavior and mental illness on road traffic accidents among the drivers with accidents and those without road crash. Methods: In this cohort study, 800 bus and truck drivers were recruited. Participants were selected among drivers who referred to Imam Sajjad Hospital (Tehran, Iran) during 2013-2015. The Manchester driving behavior questionnaire (MDBQ), big five personality test (NEO personality inventory) and semi-structured interview (schizophrenia and affective disorders scale) were used. After two years, we surveyed all accidents due to human factors that involved the recruited drivers. The data were analyzed using the SPSS software by performing the descriptive statistics, t-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis methods. P values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: In terms of controlling the effective and demographic variables, the findings revealed significant differences between the two groups of drivers that were and were not involved in road accidents. In addition, it was found that depression and anxiety could increase the odds ratio (OR) of road accidents by 2.4- and 2.7-folds, respectively (P=0.04, P=0.004). It is noteworthy to mention that neuroticism alone can increase the odds of road accidents by 1.1-fold (P=0.009), but other personality factors did not have a significant effect on the equation. Conclusion: The results revealed that some mental disorders affect the incidence of road collisions. Considering the importance and sensitivity of driving behavior, it is necessary to evaluate multiple psychological factors influencing drivers before and after receiving or renewing their driver’s license. PMID:28293047

  14. Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach.

    PubMed

    Fountas, Grigorios; Sarwar, Md Tawfiq; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Blatt, Alan; Majka, Kevin

    2018-04-01

    Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Gyroplane accidents 1985-2005: epidemiological analysis and pilot factors in 223 events.

    PubMed

    Pagán, Brian J; de Voogt, Alex

    2008-10-01

    Gyroplanes (autogyros) are regarded as a relatively safe and stable type of general-aviation aircraft. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration categorizes them as sport pilot/light sport aircraft, and reports of gyroplane accidents are included in a publicly available database. We hypothesized that issues related to pilot experience and aircraft maintenance would affect the severity of accidents as indicated by aircraft damage and fatalities. A search of the National Transportation Safety Board database for the period 1985-2005 yielded 223 reports of gyroplane accidents. Information from those reports was compiled and cross-referenced with pilot performance breakdowns and contextual information. The data was then analyzed using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System. There was a strong effect of pilot experience on crash outcomes; compared to more experienced pilots, crashes involving pilots with less than 40 flight hours in the same make/model gyroplane were five times more likely to involve loss of control, twice as likely to destroy the aircraft, and four times more likely to involve fatalities. On the other hand, crashes involving pilots with more than 40 make/model hours were more likely to be related to perception-based performance breakdown. Maintenance issues were not found to play a significant role in this sample of crashes. The results support the hypothesis that pilot experience is a significant predictor of accident fatality in gyroplanes. Training that is adapted to the experience level of pilots as implemented in new FAA regulations for sport pilot and light sport aircraft (2004) may help to reduce the frequency and seriousness of gyroplane accidents.

  16. Age-related risk factors with nonfatal traffic accidents in urban areas in Maringá, Paraná, Brazil.

    PubMed

    de Melo, Willian Augusto; Alarcão, Ana Carolina Jacinto; de Oliveira, Analice Paula Rocha; Pelloso, Sandra Marisa; Carvalho, Maria Dalva de Barros

    2017-02-17

    The present study aimed to analyze the factors associated with the occurrence of nonfatal traffic accidents regarding age. A retrospective, transversal, and analytical study was carried out in the municipality of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, based on data from Boletins de Ocorrência de Acidente de Trânsito ("Police Occurrence Bulletins"; BOATs). Following probability sampling, the sociodemographic aspects, logistics, environmental conditions, and time of occurrence of 418 cases of accidents were analyzed. The age of the victims was considered to be the dependent variable. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and bivariate, multivariate, and variance analysis, considering a confidence interval of 95% and a significance level of 5% (P <.05). Results revealed that young people (15-29 years) were twice as likely to be hospitalized due to severe injuries. Young motorcyclists had a 2.5 times greater chance of suffering accidents (P <.001); the use of other vehicles such as cars, bicycles, buses, and trucks represented a protective factor for this group (P <.05). Multiple logistic regression revealed that the main predictors for the occurrence of accidents were being single, having over 8 years of education, having had a driver's license for less than 3 years, roads with low luminosity, and driving at night. Demographic, environmental, and logistical factors were associated with morbidity due to traffic accidents among young people. These results challenge society and policy makers to create more effective strategies to minimize this serious public health problem.

  17. [Morphological verification problems of Chernobyl factor influence on the testis of coal miners of Donbas-liquidators of Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Danylov, Iu V; Motkov, K V; Shevchenko, T I

    2013-01-01

    Problem of a diagnostic of Chernobyl factor influences on different organs and systems of Chernobyl accident liquidators are remain actually until now. Though morbidly background which development at unfavorable work conditions in underground coalminers prevents from objective identification features of Chernobyl factor influences. The qualitative and quantitative histological and immunohistochemical law of morphogenesis changes in testis of Donbas's coalminer - non-liquidators Chernobyl accident in comparison with the group of Donbas's coalminers-liquidators Chernobyl accident, which we were stationed non determined problem. This reason stipulates to development and practical use of mathematical model of morphogenesis of a testis changes.

  18. Causative factors and countermeasures for rural and suburban pedestrian accidents : accident data collection and analysis

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-03-01

    The objectives of the study were to collect and analyze data on rural pedestrian accidents and to identify potential countermeasures. Data on a stratified random sample of over 1,500 rural and suburban accidents from six states was collected during i...

  19. Evaluating WAIS-IV structure through a different psychometric lens: structural causal model discovery as an alternative to confirmatory factor analysis.

    PubMed

    van Dijk, Marjolein J A M; Claassen, Tom; Suwartono, Christiany; van der Veld, William M; van der Heijden, Paul T; Hendriks, Marc P H

    Since the publication of the WAIS-IV in the U.S. in 2008, efforts have been made to explore the structural validity by applying factor analysis to various samples. This study aims to achieve a more fine-grained understanding of the structure of the Dutch language version of the WAIS-IV (WAIS-IV-NL) by applying an alternative analysis based on causal modeling in addition to confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The Bayesian Constraint-based Causal Discovery (BCCD) algorithm learns underlying network structures directly from data and assesses more complex structures than is possible with factor analysis. WAIS-IV-NL profiles of two clinical samples of 202 patients (i.e. patients with temporal lobe epilepsy and a mixed psychiatric outpatient group) were analyzed and contrasted with a matched control group (N = 202) selected from the Dutch standardization sample of the WAIS-IV-NL to investigate internal structure by means of CFA and BCCD. With CFA, the four-factor structure as proposed by Wechsler demonstrates acceptable fit in all three subsamples. However, BCCD revealed three consistent clusters (verbal comprehension, visual processing, and processing speed) in all three subsamples. The combination of Arithmetic and Digit Span as a coherent working memory factor could not be verified, and Matrix Reasoning appeared to be isolated. With BCCD, some discrepancies from the proposed four-factor structure are exemplified. Furthermore, these results fit CHC theory of intelligence more clearly. Consistent clustering patterns indicate these results are robust. The structural causal discovery approach may be helpful in better interpreting existing tests, the development of new tests, and aid in diagnostic instruments.

  20. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement..., AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.12 Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail Equipment...

  1. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement..., AND INVESTIGATIONS § 225.12 Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail Equipment...

  2. Exploring Work-Related Causal Attributions of Common Mental Disorders.

    PubMed

    Olsen, Ingrid Blø; Øverland, Simon; Reme, Silje Endresen; Løvvik, Camilla

    2015-09-01

    Common mental disorders (CMDs) are major causes of sickness absence and disability. Prevention requires knowledge of how individuals perceive causal mechanisms, and in this study we sought to examine work-related factors as causal attribution of CMDs. A trial sample of n = 1,193, recruited because they struggled with work participation due to CMDs, answered an open-ended questionnaire item about what they believed were the most important causes of their CMDs. The population included participants at risk of sickness absence, and participants with reduced work participation due to sickness absence, disability or unemployment. We used thematic content analysis and categorized responses from 487 participants who reported work-related factors as causal attributions of their CMDs. Gender differences in work-related causal attributions were also examined. The participants attributed their CMDs to the following work-related factors; work stress, leadership, reduced work participation, job dissatisfaction, work conflict, social work environment, job insecurity and change, workplace bullying, and physical strain. Women tended to attribute CMDs to social factors at work. Findings from this study suggest several work-related risk factors for CMDs. Both factors at the workplace, and reduced work participation, were perceived by study participants as contributing causes of CMDs. Thus, there is a need to promote work participation whilst at the same time targeting aversive workplace factors. Further, our findings indicate that work-related factors may affect women and men differently. This illustrates that the association between work participation and CMDs is complex, and needs to be explored further.

  3. Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

    2003-06-01

    Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

  4. Willingness to use safety belt and levels of injury in car accidents.

    PubMed

    de Lapparent, Matthieu

    2008-05-01

    In this article, we develop a bivariate ordered Probit model to analyze the decision to fasten the safety belt in a car and the resulting severity of accidents if it happens. The approach takes into account the fact that the decision to fasten the safety belt has a direct causal effect on the category of injury if an accident happens. Our application to a sample drawn from the database of French accident reports in 2003 for three populations of car users (drivers, front passengers, rear passengers) shows that fastening the safety belt is significantly related to a decrease in severe injuries but it shows also that these car users compensate partly for this safety benefit. Furthermore, it is observed that demographic characteristics of car users, as well as transport facilities, play important roles in decisions to fasten safety belts and in the eventual resulting accident injuries.

  5. A retrospective study on the unseen epidemic of road traffic injuries and deaths due to accidents in Mwanza City - Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Ngallaba, S E; Majinge, C; Gilyoma, J; Makerere, D J; Charles, E

    2013-06-01

    Sixty percent of the global deaths and injuries occur in the developing world and mostly are due to Road traffic accidents (RTAs. looking at the etiological related factors which include, carelessness of the driver, condition of the vehicle or motorcycle, poor condition of roads, risky behavior of the driver, most of these factors can be prevented to some extent. This study therefore, determined the pattern of cases and deaths due to traffic road accidents in Mwanza City Tanzania. In this retrospective study, records, registers and case notes In the surgical ward and causality, medical records and central police station from 2008 to 2011 were used. The study focused on the two referral hospitals (Sekouture regional hospital and Bugando Medical Center). There were 3450 cases due to accidents reported at both centers (Sekouture regional hospital and Bugando Medical Center of which 3224 (93.4%) had complete information for analysis.2225 (69%) were male and 999 (31%) were female, and the most affected group were male. Among the RTAs2809 cases (87%) were due to motor cycle accidents which were the leading cause of RTAs with case fatality rate of 5% while motor vehicle has case fatality rate of 24% which is 5 times that of motor cycle. Among all RTAs the leading cause of injuries is Motor cycle traffic accidents followed by motor vehicle. RTAs are on increase particularly the motor cycle traffic accidents and has claimed a good number of innocent people's lives however most of them are preventable, therefore driving course to be introduced to motor cycle drivers with emphasize on the road posters signal, rules and regular checkup of their motor cycles especially commercial motor cycle.

  6. Obesity and infection: reciprocal causality.

    PubMed

    Hainer, V; Zamrazilová, H; Kunešová, M; Bendlová, B; Aldhoon-Hainerová, I

    2015-01-01

    Associations between different infectious agents and obesity have been reported in humans for over thirty years. In many cases, as in nosocomial infections, this relationship reflects the greater susceptibility of obese individuals to infection due to impaired immunity. In such cases, the infection is not related to obesity as a causal factor but represents a complication of obesity. In contrast, several infections have been suggested as potential causal factors in human obesity. However, evidence of a causal linkage to human obesity has only been provided for adenovirus 36 (Adv36). This virus activates lipogenic and proinflammatory pathways in adipose tissue, improves insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and hepatic steatosis. The E4orf1 gene of Adv36 exerts insulin senzitizing effects, but is devoid of its pro-inflammatory modalities. The development of a vaccine to prevent Adv36-induced obesity or the use of E4orf1 as a ligand for novel antidiabetic drugs could open new horizons in the prophylaxis and treatment of obesity and diabetes. More experimental and clinical studies are needed to elucidate the mutual relations between infection and obesity, identify additional infectious agents causing human obesity, as well as define the conditions that predispose obese individuals to specific infections.

  7. How Can Historical Understanding Best be Assessed? Use of Prediction Tasks To Assess How Students Understand the Role of Causal Factors that Produce Historical Events.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alonso-Tapia, Jesus; Villa, Jose Luis

    1999-01-01

    Examines the viability of using hypothetical problems that need the application of causal models for their solution as a method to assessing understanding in the social sciences. Explains that this method was used to describe how seventh-grade students understand causal factors affecting the "discovery and colonization of America." (CMK)

  8. Causal reasoning with forces

    PubMed Central

    Wolff, Phillip; Barbey, Aron K.

    2015-01-01

    Causal composition allows people to generate new causal relations by combining existing causal knowledge. We introduce a new computational model of such reasoning, the force theory, which holds that people compose causal relations by simulating the processes that join forces in the world, and compare this theory with the mental model theory (Khemlani et al., 2014) and the causal model theory (Sloman et al., 2009), which explain causal composition on the basis of mental models and structural equations, respectively. In one experiment, the force theory was uniquely able to account for people's ability to compose causal relationships from complex animations of real-world events. In three additional experiments, the force theory did as well as or better than the other two theories in explaining the causal compositions people generated from linguistically presented causal relations. Implications for causal learning and the hierarchical structure of causal knowledge are discussed. PMID:25653611

  9. Predictive factors for acute stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder after motor vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Yaşan, Aziz; Guzel, Aslan; Tamam, Yusuf; Ozkan, Mustafa

    2009-01-01

    Since traffic accidents are more common in developing countries than in developed countries, we aimed to investigate the association of several factors with the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after traffic accidents. In the study,95 participants with injuries from traffic accidents were evaluated at 4 different times: in the beginning, and after 3, 6 and 12 months. During the first evaluation, 41.1% (39) of our participants had acute stress disorder (ASD). It was found that lower perceived social support (OR = 0.0908, 95% CI = 0.834-0.989, p = 0.027) and higher peritraumatic dissociative experience scores (OR = 1.332, 95% CI = 1.170-1.516, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of ASD. In the evaluations after 3, 6 and 12 months after the accident, we found PTSD affected 29.8, 23.1 and 17.9% of the participants, respectively. Although limitations at work and in social life after a traffic accident were not related to PTSD at 3 months (OR = 122.43, 95% CI = 0.000, p = 0.999) or at 6 months (OR = 63.438, 95% CI = 0.529-76.059, p = 0.089), limitations at work and in social life were predictors of PTSD at 12 months (OR = 155.514, 95% CI = 2.321-104.22, p = 0.019). The persistence of PTSD at the 12-month evaluation is related to ASD, limitations in work and social life, and lower social support scores. In developing countries like Turkey, long-term PTSD is commonly seen after traffic accidents. 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Factors associated with non-return to work in the severely injured victims 3 years after a road accident: A prospective study.

    PubMed

    Pélissier, C; Fort, E; Fontana, L; Charbotel, B; Hours, M

    2017-09-01

    Road accidents may impact victims' physical and/or mental health and socio-occupational life, particularly the capacity to return to work. The purpose of our study is to assess modifiable medical and socio-occupational factors of non-return to work in the severely injured 3 years after a road accident. Among1,168 road accidents casualties in the Rhône administrative Département of France followed for five years, 141 of the 222 severely injured (Maximal Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3) aged more than 16 years who were in work at the time of the accident, reported whether they had returned to work in the 3 years following the accident. The subgroups of those who had (n=113) and had not returned to work (n=28) were compared for socio-occupational (gender, age, educational level, marital status, socio-occupational group) accident-related medical factors (type of road user, type of journey, responsibility in the accident, initial care) and post-accident medical factors (pain intensity, post-traumatic stress disorder, physical sequelae, quality of life) by using standardized tools. Severity of initial head, face and lower-limb injury, intense persistent pain, post-traumatic stress disorder, poor self-assessed quality of life and health status at 3 years were associated with non-return to work on univariate analysis. On multivariate analysis, severity of initial head and lower-limb injury, intense persistent pain at 3 years and post-traumatic stress disorder were significantly associated with non-return to work 3 years following severe road-accident injury. Post-traumatic stress disorder and chronic pain were essential modifiable medical determinants of non-return to work in the severely injured after a road accident: early adapted management could promote return to work in the severely injured. Improve early adapted treatment of pain and PTSD in the rehabilitation team should help the severely injured return to work following a road accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  11. Pilot Human Factors in Stall/Spin Accidents of Supersonic Fighter Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, S. B.; Enevoldson, E. K.; Nguyen, L. T.

    1983-01-01

    A study has been made of pilot human factors related to stall/spin accidents of supersonic fighter aircraft. The military specifications for flight at high angles of attack are examined. Several pilot human factors problems related to stall/spin are discussed. These problems include (1) unsatisfactory nonvisual warning cues; (2) the inability of the pilot to quickly determine if the aircraft is spinning out of control, or to recognize the type of spin; (3) the inability of the pilot to decide on and implement the correct spin recovery technique; (4) the inability of the pilot to move, caused by high angular rotation; and (5) the tendency of pilots to wait too long in deciding to abandon the irrecoverable aircraft. Psycho-physiological phenomena influencing pilot's behavior in stall/spin situations include (1) channelization of sensory inputs, (2) limitations in precisely controlling several muscular inputs, (3) inaccurate judgment of elapsed time, and (4) disorientation of vestibulo-ocular inputs. Results are given of pilot responses to all these problems in the F14A, F16/AB, and F/A-18A aircraft. The use of departure spin resistance and automatic spin prevention systems incorporated on recent supersonic fighters are discussed. These systems should help to improve the stall/spin accident record with some compromise in maneuverability.

  12. Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Groff, Loren; Newman, Richard L.; Foster, John V.; Crider, Dennis H.; Klyde, David H.; Huston, A. McCall

    2014-01-01

    Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

  13. Research misconduct and data fraud in clinical trials: prevalence and causal factors.

    PubMed

    George, Stephen L

    2016-02-01

    The disclosure of cases of research misconduct in clinical trials, conventionally defined as fabrication, falsification or plagiarism, has been a disturbingly common phenomenon in recent years. Such cases can potentially harm patients enrolled on the trials in question or patients treated based on the results of those trials and can seriously undermine the scientific and public trust in the validity of clinical trial results. Here, I review what is known about the prevalence of research misconduct in general and the contributing or causal factors leading to the misconduct. The evidence on prevalence is unreliable and fraught with definitional problems and with study design issues. Nevertheless, the evidence taken as a whole seems to suggest that cases of the most serious types of misconduct, fabrication and falsification (i.e., data fraud), are relatively rare but that other types of questionable research practices are quite common. There have been many individual, institutional and scientific factors proposed for misconduct but, as is the case with estimates of prevalence, reliable empirical evidence on the strength and relative importance of these factors is lacking. However, it seems clear that the view of misconduct as being simply the result of aberrant or self-delusional personalities likely underestimates the effect of other important factors and inhibits the development of effective prevention strategies.

  14. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement... cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail Equipment... Attachment. If, in reporting a rail equipment accident/incident to FRA, a railroad cites an employee human...

  15. 49 CFR 225.12 - Rail Equipment Accident/Incident Reports alleging employee human factor as cause; Employee Human...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... employee human factor as cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement... cause; Employee Human Factor Attachment; notice to employee; employee supplement. (a) Rail Equipment... Attachment. If, in reporting a rail equipment accident/incident to FRA, a railroad cites an employee human...

  16. Causative factors and countermeasures for rural and suburban pedestrian accidents : accident data collection and analysis--appendices

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-06-01

    The objectives of the study were to collect and analyze data on rural pedestrian accidents and to identify potential countermeasures. Data on a stratified random sample of over 1,500 rural and suburban accidents from six states was collected during i...

  17. Eastern minds in western cockpits: meta-analysis of human factors in mishaps from three nations.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Chin; Harris, Don; Chen, Aurora

    2007-04-01

    Aviation accident rates vary in different regions; Asia and Africa have higher rates than Europe and America. There has been a great deal of discussion about the role of culture in aviation mishaps; however, culture is rarely mentioned as a contributory factor in accidents. It is hypothesized that different cultures will show different patterns in the underlying causal factors in aircraft accidents. Using a meta-analysis of previously published results, this research examined statistical differences in the 18 categories of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) across accidents in the Republic of China (Taiwan), India, and the United States. Seven HFACS categories exhibited significant differences between these three regions. These were mostly concerned with contributory factors at the higher organizational levels. The differences were related to organizational processes, organizational climate, resource management, inadequate supervision, physical/mental limitations, adverse mental states, and decision errors. Overall, the evidence from this research supports the observation that national cultures have an impact on aviation safety and adds further explanatory power with regards to why this should be so. The majority of the cultural issues identified seem to be associated with the style of management of the organizations rather than the operation of the aircraft per se.

  18. Determining the direction of causality between psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance.

    PubMed

    Kroesen, Maarten; Molin, Eric J E; van Wee, Bert

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an attempt is made to establish the direction of causality between a range of psychological factors and aircraft noise annoyance. For this purpose, a panel model was estimated within a structural equation modeling approach. Data were gathered from two surveys conducted in April 2006 and April 2008, respectively, among the same residents living within the 45 Level day-evening-night contour of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the largest airport in the Netherlands (n=250). A surprising result is that none of the paths from the psychological factors to aircraft noise annoyance were found to be significant. Yet 2 effects were significant the other way around: (1) from 'aircraft noise annoyance' to 'concern about the negative health effects of noise' and (2) from 'aircraft noise annoyance' to 'belief that noise can be prevented.' Hence aircraft noise annoyance measured at time 1 contained information that can effectively explain changes in these 2 variables at time 2, while controlling for their previous values. Secondary results show that (1) aircraft noise annoyance is very stable through time and (2) that changes in aircraft noise annoyance and the identified psychological factors are correlated.

  19. Evaluation of crash rates and causal factors for high-risk locations on rural and urban two-lane highways in Virginia.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-01-01

    Considerable efforts have been made in recent years to make highway travel safer. Traffic engineers continue to emphasize the identification of causal factors for crashes on individual sections and on different functional classes of highways as an ar...

  20. The cradle of causal reasoning: newborns' preference for physical causality.

    PubMed

    Mascalzoni, Elena; Regolin, Lucia; Vallortigara, Giorgio; Simion, Francesca

    2013-05-01

    Perception of mechanical (i.e. physical) causality, in terms of a cause-effect relationship between two motion events, appears to be a powerful mechanism in our daily experience. In spite of a growing interest in the earliest causal representations, the role of experience in the origin of this sensitivity is still a matter of dispute. Here, we asked the question about the innate origin of causal perception, never tested before at birth. Three experiments were carried out to investigate sensitivity at birth to some visual spatiotemporal cues present in a launching event. Newborn babies, only a few hours old, showed that they significantly preferred a physical causality event (i.e. Michotte's Launching effect) when matched to a delay event (i.e. a delayed launching; Experiment 1) or to a non-causal event completely identical to the causal one except for the order of the displacements of the two objects involved which was swapped temporally (Experiment 3). This preference for the launching event, moreover, also depended on the continuity of the trajectory between the objects involved in the event (Experiment 2). These results support the hypothesis that the human system possesses an early available, possibly innate basic mechanism to compute causality, such a mechanism being sensitive to the additive effect of certain well-defined spatiotemporal cues present in the causal event independently of any prior visual experience. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

    2010-01-01

    Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

  2. What causes breast cancer? A systematic review of causal attributions among breast cancer survivors and how these compare to expert-endorsed risk factors.

    PubMed

    Dumalaon-Canaria, Jo Anne; Hutchinson, Amanda D; Prichard, Ivanka; Wilson, Carlene

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this paper was to review published research that analyzed causal attributions for breast cancer among women previously diagnosed with breast cancer. These attributions were compared with risk factors identified by published scientific evidence in order to determine the level of agreement between cancer survivors' attributions and expert opinion. A comprehensive search for articles, published between 1982 and 2012, reporting studies on causal attributions for breast cancer among patients and survivors was undertaken. Of 5,135 potentially relevant articles, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Two additional articles were sourced from reference lists of included studies. Results indicated a consistent belief among survivors that their own breast cancer could be attributed to family history, environmental factors, stress, fate, or chance. Lifestyle factors were less frequently identified, despite expert health information highlighting the importance of these factors in controlling and modifying cancer risk. This review demonstrated that misperceptions about the contribution of modifiable lifestyle factors to the risk of breast cancer have remained largely unchanged over the past 30 years. The findings of this review indicate that beliefs about the causes of breast cancer among affected women are not always consistent with the judgement of experts. Breast cancer survivors did not regularly identify causal factors supported by expert consensus such as age, physical inactivity, breast density, alcohol consumption, and reproductive history. Further research examining psychological predictors of attributions and the impact of cancer prevention messages on adjustment and well-being of cancer survivors is warranted.

  3. Cognition and asynchronous distribution between human and machine building accidents.

    PubMed

    Martins, Edgard; Soares, Marcelo; Augusto, Lia; Laura, Laura

    2012-01-01

    The creation of meaning in communication is a trading activity, resulting from the construction that is born of the interaction between subjects. That is, the meaning is not inherent to the relationship between words, signs and symbols that arise from negotiating a necessary and unavoidable. As the concepts of sense as discrete and static representations imply a notion of classical computing and design of a cognitive system corresponding conceptions of meaning construction as located and shared among agents implies notions of different computing and cognition. Several efforts have been developed to meet these demands. Among them are the Connectionism (also known as neural networks. Records on aspects of mental health and stress of flight professionals are present in the official reports of the organs of investigation of aviation accidents worldwide since its inception. Problems related to health physical and mental health of pilots (fatigue, stress, physiological and psychosocial problems) account for 19% of causal factors in aircraft accidents. The training seems a paradox when we know that these professionals receive regular training, have high education and technical training of high level. However, problems arise related to the implementation of learning that can be influenced to reduce their cognitive capacity, making it in practice, relatively unable to exercise its functions effectively and safely.

  4. Human factors in general aviation accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1966-07-01

    During the twelve months ending October 31, 1965, there were 122 fatal general aviation accidents in the Western Region in which the Regional Flight Surgeon's office was notified and the wreckage was located within one week. Autopsies were obtained i...

  5. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

    PubMed

    Sagberg, F

    1999-11-01

    About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately

  6. A Hierarchical Causal Taxonomy of Psychopathology across the Life Span

    PubMed Central

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Krueger, Robert F.; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Zald, David H.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences. Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the three levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. PMID:28004947

  7. Predictive factors for cerebrovascular accidents after thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

    PubMed

    Mariscalco, Giovanni; Piffaretti, Gabriele; Tozzi, Matteo; Bacuzzi, Alessandro; Carrafiello, Giampaolo; Sala, Andrea; Castelli, Patrizio

    2009-12-01

    Cerebrovascular accidents are devastating and worrisome complications after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. The aim of this study was to determine cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. Between January 2001 and June 2008, 76 patients treated with thoracic endovascular aortic repair were prospectively enrolled. The study cohort included 61 men; mean age was 65.4 +/- 16.8 years. All patients underwent a specific neurologic assessment on an hourly basis postoperatively to detect neurologic deficits. Cerebrovascular accidents were diagnosed on the basis of physical examination, tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging, or autopsy. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred in 8 (10.5%) patients, including 4 transient ischemic attack and 4 major strokes. Four cases were observed within the first 24-hours. Multivariable analysis revealed that anatomic incompleteness of the Willis circle (odds ratio [OR] 17.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.10 to 140.66), as well as the presence of coronary artery disease (OR 6.86, 95 CI% 1.18 to 40.05), were independently associated with postoperative cerebrovascular accident development. Overall hospital mortality was 9.2%, with no significant difference for patients hit by cerebrovascular accidents (25.0% vs 7.3%, p = 0.102). Preexisting coronary artery disease, reflecting a severe diseased aorta and anomalies of Willis circle are independent cerebrovascular accident predictors after thoracic endovascular aortic repair procedures. A careful evaluation of the arch vessels and cerebral vascularization should be mandatory for patients suitable for thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

  8. Factors Impacting Mortality in the Pre-Hospital Period After Road Traffic Accidents in Urban India.

    PubMed

    Chandrasekharan, Ananthnarayan; Nanavati, Aditya J; Prabhakar, Sandhya; Prabhakar, Subramaniam

    2016-07-01

    India currently has the dubious distinction of experiencing the highest number of road traffic accidents in the world. We believe that this study on road traffic accidents may help to identify factors in the pre-hospital setting that may influence mortality rates. A prospective observational study was carried out in a metro area in India over a period of one year. The study included consecutive patients admitted to the trauma service after road traffic accidents. Demographic information, time and place of accident, and details regarding the vehicle and the events leading up to the hospital admission were recorded. Injury severity, management in the hospital, and final outcomes in terms of mortality were noted. The data were analyzed with SPSS software. A total of 773 patients were enrolled. Of these, there were 197 deaths and 576 survivors. The majority of patients were aged 15 - 40 years (67%) and were male (87.84%). More accidents occurred at night (58.2%) than during the day (41.8%). Mortality was not significantly associated with age, sex, or time of accident. City roads (38.9%) saw more accidents than highways (26.13%), but highway accidents were more likely to be fatal. Two-wheeler riders (37.65%) and pedestrians (35.75%) formed the majority of our study population. Mortality was significantly associated with crossing the road on foot (P = 0.004). Pillion riders on two-wheeler vehicles were more likely to experience poor outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 1.9, P = 0.001). Front-seat occupants in four-wheeler vehicles were at an increased risk of not surviving the accident (61.98%; RR=2.56, P = 0.01). Lack of safety gear, such as helmets, seat belts, and airbags, was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.05). Delays in transfers of patients to the hospital and a lack of pre-hospital emergency services was significantly associated with increased mortality (P = 0.000). A lack of respect for the law, weak legislation and law enforcement, disregard for

  9. A new approach to modeling aviation accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Arjun Harsha

    General Aviation (GA) is a catchall term for all aircraft operations in the US that are not categorized as commercial operations or military flights. GA aircraft account for almost 97% of the US civil aviation fleet. Unfortunately, GA flights have a much higher fatal accident rate than commercial operations. Recent estimates by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) showed that the GA fatal accident rate has remained relatively unchanged between 2010 and 2015, with 1566 fatal accidents accounting for 2650 fatalities. Several research efforts have been directed towards betters understanding the causes of GA accidents. Many of these efforts use National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident reports and data. Unfortunately, while these studies easily identify the top types of accidents (e.g., inflight loss of control (LOC)), they usually cannot identify why these accidents are happening. Most NTSB narrative reports for GA accidents are very short (many are only one paragraph long), and do not contain much information on the causes (likely because the causes were not fully identified). NTSB investigators also code each accident using an event-based coding system, which should facilitate identification of patterns and trends in causation, given the high number of GA accidents each year. However, this system is susceptible to investigator interpretation and error, meaning that two investigators may code the same accident differently, or omit applicable codes. To facilitate a potentially better understanding of GA accident causation, this research develops a state-based approach to check for logical gaps or omissions in NTSB accident records, and potentially fills-in the omissions. The state-based approach offers more flexibility as it moves away from the conventional event-based representation of accidents, which classifies events in accidents into several categories such as causes, contributing factors, findings, occurrences, and phase of flight. The method

  10. Nightmares in the general population: identifying potential causal factors.

    PubMed

    Rek, Stephanie; Sheaves, Bryony; Freeman, Daniel

    2017-09-01

    Nightmares are inherently distressing, prevent restorative sleep, and are associated with a number of psychiatric problems, but have rarely been the subject of empirical study. Negative affect, linked to stressful events, is generally considered the key trigger of nightmares; hence nightmares have most often been considered in the context of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, many individuals with heightened negative affect do not have nightmares. The objective of this study was to identify mechanistically plausible factors, beyond negative affect, that may explain why individuals experience nightmares. 846 participants from the UK general population completed an online survey about nightmare occurrence and severity (pre-occupation, distress, and impairment), negative affect, worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, paranoia, alcohol use, sleep duration, physical activity levels, PTSD symptoms, and stressful life events. Associations of nightmares with the putative predictive factors were tested controlling for levels of negative affect. Analyses were also repeated controlling for levels of PTSD and the recent occurrence of stressful life events. Nightmare occurrence, adjusting for negative affect, was associated with higher levels of worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, paranoia, and sleep duration (odds ratios 1.25-1.45). Nightmare severity, controlling for negative affect, was associated with higher levels of worry, depersonalisation, hallucinatory experiences, and paranoia (R 2 s: 0.33-0.39). Alcohol use and physical activity levels were not associated with nightmares. The study identifies a number of potential predictors of the occurrence and severity of nightmares. Causal roles require testing in future longitudinal, experimental, and treatment studies.

  11. Repeated causal decision making.

    PubMed

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

    2018-05-01

    Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Occurrence and countermeasures of urban power grid accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Wang; Tao, Zhang

    2018-03-01

    With the advance of technology, the development of network communication and the extensive use of power grids, people can get to know power grid accidents around the world through the network timely. Power grid accidents occur frequently. Large-scale power system blackout and casualty accidents caused by electric shock are also fairly commonplace. All of those accidents have seriously endangered the property and personal safety of the country and people, and the development of society and economy is severely affected by power grid accidents. Through the researches on several typical cases of power grid accidents at home and abroad in recent years and taking these accident cases as the research object, this paper will analyze the three major factors that cause power grid accidents at present. At the same time, combining with various factors and impacts caused by power grid accidents, the paper will put forward corresponding solutions and suggestions to prevent the occurrence of the accident and lower the impact of the accident.

  14. Workplace Accident Prevalence and Associated Factors among Tobacco Farm in São Lourenço do Sul-RS, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Zago, Adriana Marchon; Meucci, Rodrigo Dalke; Fiori, Nadia; Carret, Maria Laura Vidal; Faria, Neice Muller Xavier; Fassa, Anaclaudia Gastal

    2018-05-01

    Agriculture has the highest risk of accidents. In Brazil the reality of this situation is unknown owing to scarcity of studies and underreporting of workplace accidents in rural areas. This article aims to evaluate workplace accident prevalence and associated factors among tobacco farm in Sao Lourenco do Sul-RS, Brazil. Cross-sectional study with 488 tobacco farmers, assessing sociodemographic, behavioural, labour characteristics and association with workplace accidents occurring in their lifetime. The injury prevalence was 24%. Being male (PR 1.62; 95%CI 1.04-2.52), and tenant farmer (PR 1.87; 95%CI 1.29-2.72), bundling tobacco leaves (PR 2.00; 95%CI 1.14-3.52) and having minor psychiatric disorders (PR 1.58; 95%CI 1.06-2.35) were positively associated with accidents. 46% of serious injuries caused superficial lesions and 26% caused fractures. Rural workplace accident prevention policies need to be established, particularly for tobacco farming. Larger studies are needed to understand work process-related aspects that increase the risk of accidents.

  15. Evaluating a Computational Model of Social Causality and Responsibility

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    Evaluating a Computational Model of Social Causality and Responsibility Wenji Mao University of Southern California Institute for Creative...empirically evaluate a computa- tional model of social causality and responsibility against human social judgments. Results from our experimental...developed a general computational model of social cau- sality and responsibility [10, 11] that formalizes the factors people use in reasoning about

  16. "Head take you": causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica.

    PubMed

    Arthur, Carlotta M; Whitley, Rob

    2015-02-01

    Causal attributions are a key factor in explanatory models of illness; however, little research on causal attributions of mental illness has been conducted in developing nations in the Caribbean, including Jamaica. Explanatory models of mental illness may be important in understanding illness experience and be a crucial factor in mental health service seeking and utilization. We explored causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica by conducting 20 focus groups, including 16 community samples, 2 patient samples, and 2 samples of caregivers of patients, with a total of 159 participants. The 5 most commonly endorsed causal attributions of mental illness are discussed: (a) drug-related causes, including ganja (marijuana); (b) biological causes, such as chemical imbalance, familial transmission, and "blood"; (c) psychological causes, including stress and thinking too much; (d) social causes, such as relationship problems and job loss; and (e) spiritual or religious causes, including Obeah. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  17. Triglyceride-rich lipoproteins as a causal factor for cardiovascular disease

    PubMed Central

    Toth, Peter P

    2016-01-01

    Approximately 25% of US adults are estimated to have hypertriglyceridemia (triglyceride [TG] level ≥150 mg/dL [≥1.7 mmol/L]). Elevated TG levels are associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, and severe hypertriglyceridemia (TG levels ≥500 mg/dL [≥5.6 mmol/L]) is a well-established risk factor for acute pancreatitis. Plasma TG levels correspond to the sum of the TG content in TG-rich lipoproteins (TRLs; ie, very low-density lipoproteins plus chylomicrons) and their remnants. There remains some uncertainty regarding the direct causal role of TRLs in the progression of atherosclerosis and CVD, with cardiovascular outcome studies of TG-lowering agents, to date, having produced inconsistent results. Although low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) remains the primary treatment target to reduce CVD risk, a number of large-scale epidemiological studies have shown that elevated TG levels are independently associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular events, even in patients treated effectively with statins. Genetic studies have further clarified the causal association between TRLs and CVD. Variants in several key genes involved in TRL metabolism are strongly associated with CVD risk, with the strength of a variant’s effect on TG levels correlating with the magnitude of the variant’s effect on CVD. TRLs are thought to contribute to the progression of atherosclerosis and CVD via a number of direct and indirect mechanisms. They directly contribute to intimal cholesterol deposition and are also involved in the activation and enhancement of several proinflammatory, proapoptotic, and procoagulant pathways. Evidence suggests that non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the sum of the total cholesterol carried by atherogenic lipoproteins (including LDL, TRL, and TRL remnants), provides a better indication of CVD risk than LDL-C, particularly in patients with hypertriglyceridemia. This article aims to provide an overview of the

  18. A hierarchical causal taxonomy of psychopathology across the life span.

    PubMed

    Lahey, Benjamin B; Krueger, Robert F; Rathouz, Paul J; Waldman, Irwin D; Zald, David H

    2017-02-01

    We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences . Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the 3 levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights

  19. Road accidents and business cycles in Spain.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-López, Jesús; Marrero, Gustavo A; González, Rosa Marina; Leal-Linares, Teresa

    2016-11-01

    This paper explores the causes behind the downturn in road accidents in Spain across the last decade. Possible causes are grouped into three categories: Institutional factors (a Penalty Point System, PPS, dating from 2006), technological factors (active safety and passive safety of vehicles), and macroeconomic factors (the Great recession starting in 2008, and an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008). The PPS has been blessed by incumbent authorities as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate, the fuel price, the PPS, and technological items embedded in motor vehicles appear to be statistically significantly related with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing fatal accidents. However, PPS is not significant for non-fatal accidents. In view of these results, we conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensitive to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the severity (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain. Importantly, technological items help explain a sizable fraction in accidents downturn, their effects dating back from the end of the nineties. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Relativistic causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valente, Giovanni; Owen Weatherall, James

    2014-11-01

    Relativity theory is often taken to include, or to imply, a prohibition on superluminal propagation of causal processes. Yet, what exactly the prohibition on superluminal propagation amounts to and how one should deal with its possible violation have remained open philosophical problems, both in the context of the metaphysics of causation and the foundations of physics. In particular, recent work in philosophy of physics has focused on the causal structure of spacetime in relativity theory and on how this causal structure manifests itself in our most fundamental theories of matter. These topics were the subject of a workshop on "Relativistic Causality in Quantum Field Theory and General Relativity" that we organized (along with John Earman) at the Center for Philosophy of Science in Pittsburgh on April 5-7, 2013. The present Special Issue comprises contributions by speakers in that workshop as well as several other experts exploring different aspects of relativistic causality. We are grateful to the journal for hosting this Special Issue, to the journal's managing editor, Femke Kuiling, for her help and support in putting the issue together, and to the authors and the referees for their excellent work.

  1. What Women Think: Cancer Causal Attributions in a Diverse Sample of Women

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez, Vivian M.; Gyure, Maria E.; Corona, Rosalie; Bodurtha, Joann N.; Bowen, Deborah J.; Quillin, John M.

    2014-01-01

    Women hold diverse beliefs about cancer etiology, potentially affecting their use of cancer preventive behaviors. To date, research has greatly focused on the causal attributions cancer patients and survivors hold about cancer, and studies have been conducted primarily with White participants. Less is known about causal attributions held by women with and without a family history of cancer from a diverse community sample. This study sought to identify cancer causal attributions of women with and without a family history of cancer, and explore its relation to socio-cultural factors. Diverse women (60% African-American) recruited at an urban, safety-net women's health clinic (N=471) reported factors they believed cause cancer. Responses were coded into nine attributions and analyzed using chi-squares and logistic regressions. Lifestyle-choices (63%), genetics/heredity (34%), and environmental-exposures (19%) were the top causal attributions identified. Women without a family history of cancer were more likely to identify genetics/heredity as an attribution for cancer than women with a history of cancer in their families. Women who identified as White, who had a higher educational attainment, and had commercial insurance were more likely to report genetics/heredity as a causal attribution for cancer. These findings suggest that socio-cultural factors may play a role in the causal attributions individuals make about cancer, which can, in turn, inform cancer awareness and prevention messages. PMID:25398057

  2. Anatomy of an Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    1984-01-01

    The findings of industrial safety engineers in the areas of accident causation and prevention are wholly applicable to adventure programs. Adventure education instructors can use safety engineering concepts to assess the risk in a particular activity, understand factors that cause accidents, and intervene to minimize injuries and damages if…

  3. Cost effective safety improvements for two-lane rural roads

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-02-01

    Traffic accidents cause loss of life and property. Proper identification of accident causal factors is essential for composing countermeasures against traffic accidents and reducing related costs. However, two-lane rural roads have distinctive roadwa...

  4. Causality re-established.

    PubMed

    D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

    2018-07-13

    Causality has never gained the status of a 'law' or 'principle' in physics. Some recent literature has even popularized the false idea that causality is a notion that should be banned from theory. Such misconception relies on an alleged universality of the reversibility of the laws of physics, based either on the determinism of classical theory, or on the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory, in both cases motivated by mere interpretational requirements for realism of the theory. Here, I will show that a properly defined unambiguous notion of causality is a theorem of quantum theory, which is also a falsifiable proposition of the theory. Such a notion of causality appeared in the literature within the framework of operational probabilistic theories. It is a genuinely theoretical notion, corresponding to establishing a definite partial order among events, in the same way as we do by using the future causal cone on Minkowski space. The notion of causality is logically completely independent of the misidentified concept of 'determinism', and, being a consequence of quantum theory, is ubiquitous in physics. In addition, as classical theory can be regarded as a restriction of quantum theory, causality holds also in the classical case, although the determinism of the theory trivializes it. I then conclude by arguing that causality naturally establishes an arrow of time. This implies that the scenario of the 'block Universe' and the connected 'past hypothesis' are incompatible with causality, and thus with quantum theory: they are both doomed to remain mere interpretations and, as such, are not falsifiable, similar to the hypothesis of 'super-determinism'.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  5. Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

  6. Learning to learn causal models.

    PubMed

    Kemp, Charles; Goodman, Noah D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2010-09-01

    Learning to understand a single causal system can be an achievement, but humans must learn about multiple causal systems over the course of a lifetime. We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework that helps to explain how learning about several causal systems can accelerate learning about systems that are subsequently encountered. Given experience with a set of objects, our framework learns a causal model for each object and a causal schema that captures commonalities among these causal models. The schema organizes the objects into categories and specifies the causal powers and characteristic features of these categories and the characteristic causal interactions between categories. A schema of this kind allows causal models for subsequent objects to be rapidly learned, and we explore this accelerated learning in four experiments. Our results confirm that humans learn rapidly about the causal powers of novel objects, and we show that our framework accounts better for our data than alternative models of causal learning. Copyright © 2010 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  7. How shift scheduling practices contribute to fatigue amongst freight rail operating employees: Findings from Canadian accident investigations.

    PubMed

    Rudin-Brown, Christina M; Harris, Sarah; Rosberg, Ari

    2018-02-01

    Canada's freight rail system moves 70% of the country's surface goods and almost half of all exports (RAC, 2016). These include dangerous goods. Anonymous survey of freight rail operating employees conducted by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC, 2014) revealed that many do not report getting enough sleep because of their work schedules, and that fatigue may be affecting their performance at work. Besides general impairments in attention and cognitive functioning, fatigue in railway operating employees slows reaction time to safety alarms and impairs conformance to train operating requirements. Shift scheduling practices can contribute to sleep-related fatigue by restricting sleep opportunities, requiring extended periods of wakefulness and by disrupting daily (circadian) rhythms. The primary goal of accident investigation is to identify causal and contributing factors so that similar occurrences can be prevented. A database search of Transportation Safety Board (TSB) rail investigation reports published in the 21-year period from 1995 to 2015 identified 18 that cited sleep-related fatigue of freight rail operating employees as a causal, contributing, or risk finding. This number represents about 20% of TSB rail investigations from the same period in which a human factors aspect of freight train activities was a primary cause. Exploration of accident themes suggests that management of fatigue and shift scheduling in the freight rail industry is a complex issue that is often not conducive to employee circadian rhythms and sleep requirements. It also suggests that current shift scheduling and fatigue management practices may be insufficient to mitigate the associated safety risk. Railway fatigue management systems that are based on the principles of modern sleep science are needed to improve scheduling practices and mitigate the ongoing safety risk. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Molecular epidemiology of acute leukemia in children: causal model, interaction of three factors-susceptibility, environmental exposure and vulnerability period.

    PubMed

    Mejía-Aranguré, Juan Manuel

    Acute leukemias have a huge morphological, cytogenetic and molecular heterogeneity and genetic polymorphisms associated with susceptibility. Every leukemia presents causal factors associated with the development of the disease. Particularly, when three factors are present, they result in the development of acute leukemia. These phenomena are susceptibility, environmental exposure and a period that, for this model, has been called the period of vulnerability. This framework shows how the concepts of molecular epidemiology have established a reference from which it is more feasible to identify the environmental factors associated with the development of leukemia in children. Subsequently, the arguments show that only susceptible children are likely to develop leukemia once exposed to an environmental factor. For additional exposure, if the child is not susceptible to leukemia, the disease does not develop. In addition, this exposure should occur during a time window when hematopoietic cells and their environment are more vulnerable to such interaction, causing the development of leukemia. This model seeks to predict the time when the leukemia develops and attempts to give a context in which the causality of childhood leukemia should be studied. This information can influence and reduce the risk of a child developing leukemia. Copyright © 2016 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  9. Influencing factors for early acute cerebrovascular accidents in patients with stroke history following off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bin; Jia, Ming; Jia, Shijie; Wan, Jiuhe; Zhou, Xiao; Luo, Zhimin; Zhou, Ye; Zhang, Jianqun

    2014-06-01

    To analyse risk factors for early acute cerebrovascular accidents following off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB) in patients with stroke history, and to propose preventive measures to reduce the incidence of these events. A total of 468 patients with a history of stroke underwent OPCAB surgery in Beijing Anzhen Hospital of China from January 2010 to September 2012. They were retrospectively divided into two groups according to the occurrence of early acute cerebrovascular accidents within 48 hours following OPCAB. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to find risk or protective factors for early acute cerebrovascular accidents following the OPCAB. Fifty-two patients (11.1%) suffered from early acute cerebrovascular accidents in 468 patients, including 39 cases of cerebral infarction, two cases of cerebral haemorrhage, 11 cases of transient ischaemic attack (TIA). There were significant differences between the two groups in preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35%, severe bilateral carotid artery stenosis, poorly controlled hypertension, intraoperative application of Enclose® II proximal anastomotic device, postoperative acute myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, hypotension, ventilation time > 48h, ICU duration >48h and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative severe bilateral carotid stenosis (OR=6.378, 95%CI: 2.278-20.987) and preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35% (OR=2.737, 95%CI: 1.267-6.389), postoperative acute myocardial infarction (OR=3.644, 95%CI: 1.928-6.876), postoperative atrial fibrillation (OR=3.104, 95%CI:1.135∼8.016) and postoperative hypotension (OR=4.173, 95%CI: 1.836∼9.701) were independent risk factors for early acute cerebrovascular accidents in patients with a history of stroke following OPCAB procedures, while intraoperative application of Enclose® II proximal anastomotic device was protective factor (OR=0.556, 95%CI: 0.337-0.925). This

  10. Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

    PubMed

    Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

    2011-11-01

    Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Study on the Accident-causing of Foundation Pit Engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shuicheng, Tian; Xinyue, Zhang; Pengfei, Yang; Longgang, Chen

    2018-05-01

    With the development of high-rise buildings and underground space, a large number of foundation pit projects have occurred. Frequent accidents of it cause great losses to the society, how to reduce the frequency of pit accidents has become one of the most urgent problems to be solved. Therefore, analysing the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents and studying the causes of foundation pit accidents, which of great significance for improving the safety management level of foundation pit engineering and reducing the incidence of foundation pit accidents. Firstly, based on literature review and questionnaires, this paper selected construction management, survey, design, construction, supervision and monitoring as research factors, we used the AHP method and the Dematel method to analyze the weights of various influencing factors to screen indicators to determine the ultimate system of accidents caused by foundation pit accidents; Secondly, SPSS 21.0 software was used to test the reliability and validity of the recovered questionnaire data. AMOS 7.0 software was used to fit, evaluate, and explain the set model; Finally, this paper analysed the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents, corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.

  12. Statistical Evaluation of Causal Factors Associated with Astronaut Shoulder Injury in Space Suits.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Allison P; Newman, Dava J; Welsch, Roy E

    2015-07-01

    Shoulder injuries due to working inside the space suit are some of the most serious and debilitating injuries astronauts encounter. Space suit injuries occur primarily in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) underwater training facility due to accumulated musculoskeletal stress. We quantitatively explored the underlying causal mechanisms of injury. Logistic regression was used to identify relevant space suit components, training environment variables, and anthropometric dimensions related to an increased propensity for space-suited injury. Two groups of subjects were analyzed: those whose reported shoulder incident is attributable to the NBL or working in the space suit, and those whose shoulder incidence began in active duty, meaning working in the suit could be a contributing factor. For both groups, percent of training performed in the space suit planar hard upper torso (HUT) was the most important predictor variable for injury. Frequency of training and recovery between training were also significant metrics. The most relevant anthropometric dimensions were bideltoid breadth, expanded chest depth, and shoulder circumference. Finally, record of previous injury was found to be a relevant predictor for subsequent injury. The first statistical model correctly identifies 39% of injured subjects, while the second model correctly identifies 68% of injured subjects. A review of the literature suggests this is the first work to quantitatively evaluate the hypothesized causal mechanisms of all space-suited shoulder injuries. Although limited in predictive capability, each of the identified variables can be monitored and modified operationally to reduce future impacts on an astronaut's health.

  13. When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

    PubMed

    Verbeek, Jos

    2012-06-01

    Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely.

  14. A quantum causal discovery algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giarmatzi, Christina; Costa, Fabio

    2018-03-01

    Finding a causal model for a set of classical variables is now a well-established task—but what about the quantum equivalent? Even the notion of a quantum causal model is controversial. Here, we present a causal discovery algorithm for quantum systems. The input to the algorithm is a process matrix describing correlations between quantum events. Its output consists of different levels of information about the underlying causal model. Our algorithm determines whether the process is causally ordered by grouping the events into causally ordered non-signaling sets. It detects if all relevant common causes are included in the process, which we label Markovian, or alternatively if some causal relations are mediated through some external memory. For a Markovian process, it outputs a causal model, namely the causal relations and the corresponding mechanisms, represented as quantum states and channels. Our algorithm opens the route to more general quantum causal discovery methods.

  15. Epidemiological causality.

    PubMed

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

  16. Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

    PubMed

    Rickard, Laura N

    2014-03-01

    Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. A cluster analysis on road traffic accidents using genetic algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saharan, Sabariah; Baragona, Roberto

    2017-04-01

    The analysis of traffic road accidents is increasingly important because of the accidents cost and public road safety. The availability or large data sets makes the study of factors that affect the frequency and severity accidents are viable. However, the data are often highly unbalanced and overlapped. We deal with the data set of the road traffic accidents recorded in Christchurch, New Zealand, from 2000-2009 with a total of 26440 accidents. The data is in a binary set and there are 50 factors road traffic accidents with four level of severity. We used genetic algorithm for the analysis because we are in the presence of a large unbalanced data set and standard clustering like k-means algorithm may not be suitable for the task. The genetic algorithm based on clustering for unknown K, (GCUK) has been used to identify the factors associated with accidents of different levels of severity. The results provided us with an interesting insight into the relationship between factors and accidents severity level and suggest that the two main factors that contributes to fatal accidents are "Speed greater than 60 km h" and "Did not see other people until it was too late". A comparison with the k-means algorithm and the independent component analysis is performed to validate the results.

  18. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition.

    PubMed

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie-Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.

  19. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition

    PubMed Central

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Results: Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. Conclusion: The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.    PMID:28507999

  20. Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

    2018-06-01

    Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

  1. Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions.

    PubMed

    Mohanty, Malaya; Gupta, Ankit

    2016-09-01

    The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were - the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15-18 and 18-21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents.

  2. Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

    PubMed Central

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

  3. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Human error analysis of commercial aviation accidents using the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS)

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-02-01

    The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is a general human error framework : originally developed and tested within the U.S. military as a tool for investigating and analyzing the human : causes of aviation accidents. Based upon ...

  5. Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

    PubMed

    Walters, Glenn D

    2018-01-01

    This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Motorcycle accident cause factors and identification of countermeasures. Volume 1 : technical report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1981-01-01

    This report presents the data and find~ings from the on-scene, in-depth : investigations of 900 motorcycle accidents and the analysis of 3600 traffic : accident reports of motorcycle accidents in the same study area. : Comprehensive data were collect...

  7. Acute stress reactions after submarine accidents.

    PubMed

    Eid, Jarle; Johnsen, Bjørn Helge

    2002-05-01

    The aim of the present study was to explore contextual and individual factors associated with acute stress reactions in three Norwegian submarine crews exposed to different significant peacetime maneuver accidents. Approximately 2 to 3 weeks after the accidents, crew members completed the Coping Style Questionnaire, the General Health Questionnaire, the Impact of Event Scale, and the Post-Traumatic Symptom Scale. Although exposed subjects (N = 47) revealed more posttraumatic stress symptoms than nonexposed crew members on shore leave (N = 7), they showed less acute stress reactions than survivors from a surface ship accident in the Norwegian Navy. Inspection of individual cases revealed that 4% of the exposed submariners showed high loads of acute stress symptoms. Unit cohesion and habitual coping styles emerged as resilience factors, whereas previous exposure to critical incidents and personal experience of not coping in the accident situation emerged as vulnerability factors, explaining 32% of the acute stress reactions reported by submarine crew members.

  8. The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association".

    PubMed

    Ward, Andrew C

    2009-06-17

    As noted by Wesley Salmon and many others, causal concepts are ubiquitous in every branch of theoretical science, in the practical disciplines and in everyday life. In the theoretical and practical sciences especially, people often base claims about causal relations on applications of statistical methods to data. However, the source and type of data place important constraints on the choice of statistical methods as well as on the warrant attributed to the causal claims based on the use of such methods. For example, much of the data used by people interested in making causal claims come from non-experimental, observational studies in which random allocations to treatment and control groups are not present. Thus, one of the most important problems in the social and health sciences concerns making justified causal inferences using non-experimental, observational data. In this paper, I examine one method of justifying such inferences that is especially widespread in epidemiology and the health sciences generally - the use of causal criteria. I argue that while the use of causal criteria is not appropriate for either deductive or inductive inferences, they do have an important role to play in inferences to the best explanation. As such, causal criteria, exemplified by what Bradford Hill referred to as "aspects of [statistical] associations", have an indispensible part to play in the goal of making justified causal claims.

  9. The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association"

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Andrew C

    2009-01-01

    As noted by Wesley Salmon and many others, causal concepts are ubiquitous in every branch of theoretical science, in the practical disciplines and in everyday life. In the theoretical and practical sciences especially, people often base claims about causal relations on applications of statistical methods to data. However, the source and type of data place important constraints on the choice of statistical methods as well as on the warrant attributed to the causal claims based on the use of such methods. For example, much of the data used by people interested in making causal claims come from non-experimental, observational studies in which random allocations to treatment and control groups are not present. Thus, one of the most important problems in the social and health sciences concerns making justified causal inferences using non-experimental, observational data. In this paper, I examine one method of justifying such inferences that is especially widespread in epidemiology and the health sciences generally – the use of causal criteria. I argue that while the use of causal criteria is not appropriate for either deductive or inductive inferences, they do have an important role to play in inferences to the best explanation. As such, causal criteria, exemplified by what Bradford Hill referred to as "aspects of [statistical] associations", have an indispensible part to play in the goal of making justified causal claims. PMID:19534788

  10. NASA-ONERA Collaboration on Human Factors in Aviation Accidents and Incidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srivastava, Ashok N.; Fabiani, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    This is the first annual report jointly prepared by NASA and ONERA on the work performed under the agreement to collaborate on a study of the human factors entailed in aviation accidents and incidents, particularly focused on the consequences of decreases in human performance associated with fatigue. The objective of this agreement is to generate reliable, automated procedures that improve understanding of the levels and characteristics of flight-crew fatigue factors whose confluence will likely result in unacceptable crew performance. This study entails the analyses of numerical and textual data collected during operational flights. NASA and ONERA are collaborating on the development and assessment of automated capabilities for extracting operationally significant information from very large, diverse (textual and numerical) databases; much larger than can be handled practically by human experts.

  11. When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely. PMID:22993715

  12. A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M.; Schulz, Laura E.; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously…

  13. Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2014-12-01

    Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  14. Conjectures on the relations of linking and causality in causally simple spacetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernov, Vladimir

    2018-05-01

    We formulate the generalization of the Legendrian Low conjecture of Natario and Tod (proved by Nemirovski and myself before) to the case of causally simple spacetimes. We prove a weakened version of the corresponding statement. In all known examples, a causally simple spacetime can be conformally embedded as an open subset into some globally hyperbolic and the space of light rays in is an open submanifold of the space of light rays in . If this is always the case, this provides an approach to solving the conjectures relating causality and linking in causally simple spacetimes.

  15. A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Saxe, Glenn N; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C; Aliferis, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach--the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method-designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a 'gold standard' dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry.

  16. Causal Systems Categories: Differences in Novice and Expert Categorization of Causal Phenomena

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rottman, Benjamin M.; Gentner, Dedre; Goldwater, Micah B.

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the understanding of causal systems categories--categories defined by common causal structure rather than by common domain content--among college students. We asked students who were either novices or experts in the physical sciences to sort descriptions of real-world phenomena that varied in their causal structure (e.g., negative…

  17. How propeller suction is the dominant factor for ship accidents at shallow water conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acar, Dursun; Alpar, Bedri; Ozeren, Sinan

    2017-04-01

    The laminar flow comes to the fore with the disappearance of the several other directions in the internal displacements in the water current. Due to the dominant speed direction during the straightforward motion of the ship, the underwater hull is associated with the continuous flow of laminar currents. The open marine environment acts as a compressible liquid medium because of the presence of many variables about water volume overflow boundaries where the ship is associated. Layers of water rising over the sea surface due to ship's body and the propeller's water push provides loss of liquid lifting force for the ship. These situations change the well-known sea-floor morphology and reliable depth limits, and lead to probable accidents. If the ship block coefficient for the front side is 0.7 or higher, the "squat" will be more on the bow, because the associated factor "displacement volume" causes to the low-pressure environment due to large and rapid turbulence. Thus, the bow sinks further, which faced with liquid's weaker lift force. The vessels Gerardus Mercator, Queen Elizabeth and Costa Concordia had accidents because of unified reasons of squat, fast water mass displacement by hull push and propeller suction interaction. In the case of water mass displacement from the bow side away, that accident occurred in 2005 by the vessel Gerardus Mercator with excessive longitudinal trim angularity in the shallow water. The vessel Costa Concordia (2012), voluminous water displaced from the rear left side was an important factor because of the sharp manoeuvre of that the captain made before the accident. Observations before the accident indicate that full-speed sharp turn provided listed position for the ship from left (port side) in the direction of travel before colliding and then strike a rock on the sloping side of the seabed. The reason why the ship drifted to the left depends mainly the water discharge occurred at the left side of the hull during left-hand rudder

  18. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    PubMed

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Comorbidity and radiation: methodological aspects of health assessment of persons exposed to the Chornobyl accident factors.

    PubMed

    Nosach, O V

    2013-01-01

    Comorbidity is one of the most challenging problems of a modern medicine. In a population exposed to the factors of the Chornobyl accident there is an obvious increase in the number of diseases occurring simultaneously against the background of rising prevalence of different classes of chronic medical nosology. The scientific data analysis are presented on the methodological approaches that can be used to create a specialized system for integrated assessment of the health of patients with comorbid disorders. Developing such a system it should be taken into account the trends of changes in the incidence, prevalence and structure of chronic disease, factors and regularities of comorbid disease in the cohorts of Chornobyl accident clean-up workers, evacuees and dwellers of contaminated territories. The system should provide a non-random selection of combinations (clusters) of the most common diseases with serious consequences for the survivors. Nosach O. V., 2013.

  20. A review of causal inference for biomedical informatics

    PubMed Central

    Kleinberg, Samantha; Hripcsak, George

    2011-01-01

    Causality is an important concept throughout the health sciences and is particularly vital for informatics work such as finding adverse drug events or risk factors for disease using electronic health records. While philosophers and scientists working for centuries on formalizing what makes something a cause have not reached a consensus, new methods for inference show that we can make progress in this area in many practical cases. This article reviews core concepts in understanding and identifying causality and then reviews current computational methods for inference and explanation, focusing on inference from large-scale observational data. While the problem is not fully solved, we show that graphical models and Granger causality provide useful frameworks for inference and that a more recent approach based on temporal logic addresses some of the limitations of these methods. PMID:21782035

  1. Does Causal Action Facilitate Causal Perception in Infants Younger than 6 Months of Age?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rakison, David H.; Krogh, Lauren

    2012-01-01

    Previous research has established that infants are unable to perceive causality until 6 1/4 months of age. The current experiments examined whether infants' ability to engage in causal action could facilitate causal perception prior to this age. In Experiment 1, 4 1/2-month-olds were randomly assigned to engage in causal action experience via…

  2. A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

    PubMed

    Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

    2014-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims

  3. Credible investigation of air accidents.

    PubMed

    Smart, K

    2004-07-26

    Within the United Kingdom the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has been used as a model for the other transport modes accident investigation bodies. Government Ministers considered that the AAIB's approach had established the trust of the public and the aviation industry in its ability to conduct independent and objective investigations. The paper will examine the factors that are involved in establishing this trust. They include: the investigation framework; the actual and perceived independence of the accident investigating body; the aviation industry's safety culture; the qualities of the investigators and the quality of their liaison with bereaved families those directly affected by the accidents they investigate.

  4. Agency, time, and causality

    PubMed Central

    Widlok, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-Western Educational Industrial Rich Democratic people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition. PMID:25414683

  5. Causal attribution for success and failure in mathematics among MDAB pre-diploma students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maidinsah, Hamidah; Embong, Rokiah; Wahab, Zubaidah Abd

    2014-07-01

    The Program Mengubah Destini Anak Bangsa (MDAB) is a pre-diploma programme catering to SPM school leavers who do not meet the minimum requirement to enter any of UiTM diploma programmes. The study aims to evaluate the perceptions of MDAB students toward the main causal attribution factors underlying students' success and failure in mathematics. Research sample comprised of 482 students from five UiTM branch campuses. Research instrument used was a set of GALUS questionnaire consisting of 36 items based on the Weiner Attribution Theory. Four causal attributions factors for success and failures evaluated are ability, effort, question difficulty and environment. GALUS reliability index was 0.93. The research found that effort appears to be the main causal attribution factor in students' success and failure in mathematics, followed by environment, question difficulty and ability. High achiever students strongly agree that the ability factor influenced their success while low achiever students strongly agree that all attributing factors influenced their failures in mathematics.

  6. Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Markus, Keith A.

    2010-01-01

    One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

  7. The development of causal reasoning.

    PubMed

    Kuhn, Deanna

    2012-05-01

    How do inference rules for causal learning themselves change developmentally? A model of the development of causal reasoning must address this question, as well as specify the inference rules. Here, the evidence for developmental changes in processes of causal reasoning is reviewed, with the distinction made between diagnostic causal inference and causal prediction. Also addressed is the paradox of a causal reasoning literature that highlights the competencies of young children and the proneness to error among adults. WIREs Cogn Sci 2012, 3:327-335. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1160 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Causal reports: Context-dependent contributions of intuitive physics and visual impressions of launching.

    PubMed

    Vicovaro, Michele

    2018-05-01

    Everyday causal reports appear to be based on a blend of perceptual and cognitive processes. Causality can sometimes be perceived automatically through low-level visual processing of stimuli, but it can also be inferred on the basis of an intuitive understanding of the physical mechanism that underlies an observable event. We investigated how visual impressions of launching and the intuitive physics of collisions contribute to the formation of explicit causal responses. In Experiment 1, participants observed collisions between realistic objects differing in apparent material and hence implied mass, whereas in Experiment 2, participants observed collisions between abstract, non-material objects. The results of Experiment 1 showed that ratings of causality were mainly driven by the intuitive physics of collisions, whereas the results of Experiment 2 provide some support to the hypothesis that ratings of causality were mainly driven by visual impressions of launching. These results suggest that stimulus factors and experimental design factors - such as the realism of the stimuli and the variation in the implied mass of the colliding objects - may determine the relative contributions of perceptual and post-perceptual cognitive processes to explicit causal responses. A revised version of the impetus transmission heuristic provides a satisfactory explanation for these results, whereas the hypothesis that causal responses and intuitive physics are based on the internalization of physical laws does not. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Learning a theory of causality.

    PubMed

    Goodman, Noah D; Ullman, Tomer D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2011-01-01

    The very early appearance of abstract knowledge is often taken as evidence for innateness. We explore the relative learning speeds of abstract and specific knowledge within a Bayesian framework and the role for innate structure. We focus on knowledge about causality, seen as a domain-general intuitive theory, and ask whether this knowledge can be learned from co-occurrence of events. We begin by phrasing the causal Bayes nets theory of causality and a range of alternatives in a logical language for relational theories. This allows us to explore simultaneous inductive learning of an abstract theory of causality and a causal model for each of several causal systems. We find that the correct theory of causality can be learned relatively quickly, often becoming available before specific causal theories have been learned--an effect we term the blessing of abstraction. We then explore the effect of providing a variety of auxiliary evidence and find that a collection of simple perceptual input analyzers can help to bootstrap abstract knowledge. Together, these results suggest that the most efficient route to causal knowledge may be to build in not an abstract notion of causality but a powerful inductive learning mechanism and a variety of perceptual supports. While these results are purely computational, they have implications for cognitive development, which we explore in the conclusion.

  10. Quantification method analysis of the relationship between occupant injury and environmental factors in traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Ju, Yong Han; Sohn, So Young

    2011-01-01

    Injury analysis following a vehicle crash is one of the most important research areas. However, most injury analyses have focused on one-dimensional injury variables, such as the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale) or the IIS (Injury Impairment Scale), at a time in relation to various traffic accident factors. However, these studies cannot reflect the various injury phenomena that appear simultaneously. In this paper, we apply quantification method II to the NASS (National Automotive Sampling System) CDS (Crashworthiness Data System) to find the relationship between the categorical injury phenomena, such as the injury scale, injury position, and injury type, and the various traffic accident condition factors, such as speed, collision direction, vehicle type, and seat position. Our empirical analysis indicated the importance of safety devices, such as restraint equipment and airbags. In addition, we found that narrow impact, ejection, air bag deployment, and higher speed are associated with more severe than minor injury to the thigh, ankle, and leg in terms of dislocation, abrasion, or laceration. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Injury protection and accident causation parameters for vulnerable road users based on German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS.

    PubMed

    Otte, Dietmar; Jänsch, Michael; Haasper, Carl

    2012-01-01

    Within a study of accident data from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), vulnerable road users are investigated regarding injury risk in traffic accidents. GIDAS is the largest in-depth accident study in Germany. Due to a well-defined sampling plan, representativeness with respect to the federal statistics is also guaranteed. A hierarchical system ACASS (Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps) was developed in GIDAS, describing the human causation factors in a chronological sequence. The accordingly classified causation factors - derived from the systematic of the analysis of human accident causes ("7 steps") - can be used to describe the influence of accident causes on the injury outcome. The bases of the study are accident documentations over ten years from 1999 to 2008 with 8204 vulnerable road users (VRU), of which 3 different groups were selected as pedestrians n=2041, motorcyclists n=2199 and bicyclists n=3964, and analyzed on collisions with cars and trucks as well as vulnerable road users alone. The paper will give a description of the injury pattern and injury mechanisms of accidents. The injury frequencies and severities are pointed out considering different types of VRU and protective measures of helmet and clothes of the human body. The impact points are demonstrated on the car, following to conclusion of protective measures on the vehicle. Existing standards of protection devices as well as interdisciplinary research, including accident and injury statistics, are described. With this paper, a summarization of the existing possibilities on protective measures for pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists is given and discussed by comparison of all three groups of vulnerable road users. Also the relevance of special impact situations and accident causes mainly responsible for severe injuries are pointed out, given the new orientation of research for the avoidance and reduction of accident patterns. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Property transmission: an explanatory account of the role of similarity information in causal inference.

    PubMed

    White, Peter A

    2009-09-01

    Many kinds of common and easily observed causal relations exhibit property transmission, which is a tendency for the causal object to impose its own properties on the effect object. It is proposed that property transmission becomes a general and readily available hypothesis used to make interpretations and judgments about causal questions under conditions of uncertainty, in which property transmission functions as a heuristic. The property transmission hypothesis explains why and when similarity information is used in causal inference. It can account for magical contagion beliefs, some cases of illusory correlation, the correspondence bias, overestimation of cross-situational consistency in behavior, nonregressive tendencies in prediction, the belief that acts of will are causes of behavior, and a range of other phenomena. People learn that property transmission is often moderated by other factors, but under conditions of uncertainty in which the operation of relevant other factors is unknown, it tends to exhibit a pervasive influence on thinking about causality. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Statistical analyses of commercial vehicle accident factors. Volume 1 Part 1

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1978-02-01

    Procedures for conducting statistical analyses of commercial vehicle accidents have been established and initially applied. A file of some 3,000 California Highway Patrol accident reports from two areas of California during a period of about one year...

  14. Causality discovery technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

    2012-11-01

    Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

  15. Reasoning with Causal Cycles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rehder, Bob

    2017-01-01

    This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models (CGMs) have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new…

  16. Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

    PubMed

    Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

    2008-03-01

    There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

  17. Normal Accident at Three Mile Island.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perrow, Charles

    1981-01-01

    Discusses some aspects of the accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. Explains a number of factors involved including the type of accident, warnings, design and equipment failure, operator error, and negative synergy. Presents alternatives to systems with catastrophic potential. (MK)

  18. Identification of causal genes for complex traits

    PubMed Central

    Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kichaev, Gleb; Yang, Wen-Yun; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants associated with common diseases and complex traits, only a handful of these variants are validated to be causal. We consider ‘causal variants’ as variants which are responsible for the association signal at a locus. As opposed to association studies that benefit from linkage disequilibrium (LD), the main challenge in identifying causal variants at associated loci lies in distinguishing among the many closely correlated variants due to LD. This is particularly important for model organisms such as inbred mice, where LD extends much further than in human populations, resulting in large stretches of the genome with significantly associated variants. Furthermore, these model organisms are highly structured and require correction for population structure to remove potential spurious associations. Results: In this work, we propose CAVIAR-Gene (CAusal Variants Identification in Associated Regions), a novel method that is able to operate across large LD regions of the genome while also correcting for population structure. A key feature of our approach is that it provides as output a minimally sized set of genes that captures the genes which harbor causal variants with probability ρ. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method not only speeds up computation, but also have an average of 10% higher recall rate compared with the existing approaches. We validate our method using a real mouse high-density lipoprotein data (HDL) and show that CAVIAR-Gene is able to identify Apoa2 (a gene known to harbor causal variants for HDL), while reducing the number of genes that need to be tested for functionality by a factor of 2. Availability and implementation: Software is freely available for download at genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar. Contact: eeskin@cs.ucla.edu PMID:26072484

  19. Identification of causal genes for complex traits.

    PubMed

    Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kichaev, Gleb; Yang, Wen-Yun; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

    2015-06-15

    Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants associated with common diseases and complex traits, only a handful of these variants are validated to be causal. We consider 'causal variants' as variants which are responsible for the association signal at a locus. As opposed to association studies that benefit from linkage disequilibrium (LD), the main challenge in identifying causal variants at associated loci lies in distinguishing among the many closely correlated variants due to LD. This is particularly important for model organisms such as inbred mice, where LD extends much further than in human populations, resulting in large stretches of the genome with significantly associated variants. Furthermore, these model organisms are highly structured and require correction for population structure to remove potential spurious associations. In this work, we propose CAVIAR-Gene (CAusal Variants Identification in Associated Regions), a novel method that is able to operate across large LD regions of the genome while also correcting for population structure. A key feature of our approach is that it provides as output a minimally sized set of genes that captures the genes which harbor causal variants with probability ρ. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method not only speeds up computation, but also have an average of 10% higher recall rate compared with the existing approaches. We validate our method using a real mouse high-density lipoprotein data (HDL) and show that CAVIAR-Gene is able to identify Apoa2 (a gene known to harbor causal variants for HDL), while reducing the number of genes that need to be tested for functionality by a factor of 2. Software is freely available for download at genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  20. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    PubMed

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Causal-explanatory pluralism: How intentions, functions, and mechanisms influence causal ascriptions.

    PubMed

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2010-12-01

    Both philosophers and psychologists have argued for the existence of distinct kinds of explanations, including teleological explanations that cite functions or goals, and mechanistic explanations that cite causal mechanisms. Theories of causation, in contrast, have generally been unitary, with dominant theories focusing either on counterfactual dependence or on physical connections. This paper argues that both approaches to causation are psychologically real, with different modes of explanation promoting judgments more or less consistent with each approach. Two sets of experiments isolate the contributions of counterfactual dependence and physical connections in causal ascriptions involving events with people, artifacts, or biological traits, and manipulate whether the events are construed teleologically or mechanistically. The findings suggest that when events are construed teleologically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to counterfactual dependence and relatively insensitive to the presence of physical connections, but when events are construed mechanistically, causal ascriptions are sensitive to both counterfactual dependence and physical connections. The conclusion introduces an account of causation, an "exportable dependence theory," that provides a way to understand the contributions of physical connections and teleology in terms of the functions of causal ascriptions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Knowing Who Dunnit: Infants Identify the Causal Agent in an Unseen Causal Interaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saxe, Rebecca; Tzelnic, Tania; Carey, Susan

    2007-01-01

    Preverbal infants can represent the causal structure of events, including distinguishing the agentive and receptive roles and categorizing entities according to stable causal dispositions. This study investigated how infants combine these 2 kinds of causal inference. In Experiments 1 and 2, 9.5-month-olds used the position of a human hand or a…

  3. Motorcycle accident cause factors and identification of countermeasures. Volume 2 : appendix/supplemental data

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1981-01-01

    This report presents the data and findings from the on-scene, in-depth : investigations of 900 motorcycle accidents and the analysis of 3600 traffic : accident reports of motorcycle accidents in the same study area. : Comprehensive data were collecte...

  4. Inroads into Equestrian Safety: Rider-Reported Factors Contributing to Horse-Related Accidents and Near Misses on Australian Roads

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Kirrilly; Matthews, Chelsea

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary Riding horses on roads can be dangerous, but little is known about accidents and near misses. To explore road safety issues amongst Australian equestrians, we conducted an online survey. More than half of all riders (52%) reported having experienced at least one accident or near miss in the 12 months prior to the survey, mostly attributed to speed. Whilst our findings confirmed factors identified overseas, we also identified issues around road rules, hand signals and road rage. This paper suggests strategies for improving the safety of horses, riders and other road users. Abstract Horse riding and horse-related interactions are inherently dangerous. When they occur on public roads, the risk profile of equestrian activities is complicated by interactions with other road users. Research has identified speed, proximity, visibility, conspicuity and mutual misunderstanding as factors contributing to accidents and near misses. However, little is known about their significance or incidence in Australia. To explore road safety issues amongst Australian equestrians, we conducted an online survey. More than half of all riders (52%) reported having experienced at least one accident or near miss in the 12 months prior to the survey. Whilst our findings confirm the factors identified overseas, we also identified issues around rider misunderstanding of road rules and driver misunderstanding of rider hand signals. Of particular concern, we also found reports of potentially dangerous rider-directed road rage. We identify several areas for potential safety intervention including (1) identifying equestrians as vulnerable road users and horses as sentient decision-making vehicles; (2) harmonising laws regarding passing horses; (3) mandating personal protective equipment; (4) improving road signage; (5) comprehensive data collection; (6) developing mutual understanding amongst road-users; (7) safer road design and alternative riding spaces; and (8) increasing investment

  5. Estimating the causal effects of smoking.

    PubMed

    Rubin, D B

    An important application of statistics in recent years has been to address the causal effects of smoking. There is little doubt that there are health risks associated with smoking. However, more general issues concern the causal effects due to the alleged misconduct of the tobacco industry or due to programmes designed to curtail tobacco use. To address any such causal question, assumptions must be made. Although some of the issues are well known in the statistical and epidemiological literature, there does not appear to be a unified treatment that provides prescriptive guidance on the estimation of these causal effects with explication of the needed assumptions. A 'conduct attributable fraction' is derived, which allows for arbitrary changes in smoking and non-smoking health care expenditure related factors in a counterfactual world without the alleged misconduct, and therefore generalizes the traditional 'smoking attributable fraction'. The formulation presented here, although described for the problem of estimating excess health care expenditures due to the alleged misconduct of the tobacco industry, is more general. It can be applied to any outcome, such as mortality, morbidity, or income from excise taxes, as well as to any situation in which consequences due to alleged misconduct (for example, of two entities, such as the tobacco and the asbestos industries) or due to hypothetical programmes (for example, extra smoking reduction initiatives) are to be estimated. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Structure and Strength in Causal Induction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2005-01-01

    We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

  7. Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

    PubMed

    Hänninen, Maria

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. [Determinant factors and conduct in post-accident with biological material among pre-hospital professionals].

    PubMed

    Paiva, Maria Henriqueta Rocha Siqueira; Oliveira, Adriana Cristina

    2011-01-01

    This transversal study was carried out with a multiprofessional team in the pre-hospital care in Minas Gerais, Brazil. It aimed to estimate the incidence of occupational accidents by exposure to biological material and post-accidents conductsta. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used. Incidence of accidents was 19.8%: 39,1% perforating-cutting materials and 56.5% body fluids. Doctors (33.3%) and drivers (24.0%) were most involved. Inadequate subsequent measures were highly prevalent: no medical assessment (69.6%), no work accident communication issued (91.3%), no measures (52.2%) and no serological follow-up (52.2%). Variables associated with accidents were: age >31 years old (OR = 3,02; IC95%: 1,25 - 7,33; p = 0,014) and working in basic support units (OR = 5,36; IC95%: 1,51 19,08; p = 0,010). The implementation of post-accidents protocols is suggested in order to reduce accidents and under-notification, and increase post-accident follow-up.

  9. Diagnostic nomenclature for foetal alcohol spectrum disorders: the continuing challenge of causality.

    PubMed

    Miller, A R

    2013-11-01

    Prenatal alcohol exposure is a risk factor for neurologically based cognitive and adaptive disability. Diagnostic nomenclature for prenatally exposed children with cognitive and adaptive disability who lack features for foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) or partial FAS includes the terms alcohol-related neurodevelopmental disorder (ARND) and foetal alcohol spectrum disorder(s) (FASD). Although these terms are now widely used, this paper argues that both are problematic. ARND is flawed by unjustifiably turning a risk factor into a causal factor and shrouding the result in terminological ambiguity, while FASD is not appropriate as a clinical label, and its use as a proxy for ARND deflects critical attention from the causal inferencing that is integral to diagnosing children with an alcohol-related teratogenic condition. Existing nomenclature is at odds with logical and evidence-based diagnosing and also has implications for interpretation of epidemiological data. Diagnostic nomenclature that is not tightly linked to causal inference is preferable at the present stage of this field's development. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

    PubMed Central

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

  11. Computed tomographic assessment of the causal factors of unsuccessful medialization thyroplasty.

    PubMed

    Iwahashi, Toshihiko; Ogawa, Makoto; Hosokawa, Kiyohito; Mochizuki, Ryuichi; Inohara, Hidenori

    2015-03-01

    The present results demonstrate that a small implant size, undercorrection of the vocal fold, antero-posterior implant malposition, and the use of expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE) are the primary factors that cause a poor outcome of medialization thyroplasty (MT). To assess the postoperative laryngeal condition using computed tomography (CT) in patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis who underwent MT alone, and to identify the primary causal factors in terms of the surgical procedures that affect the outcomes of MT. Twenty-two patients who underwent MT alone were divided into two groups based on either the maximal phonation time or the perceived vocal breathiness. Two laryngologists assessed the postoperative laryngeal CT images during sustained vowel phonation and judged whether there were abnormalities of the arytenoid cartilage position, window position, implant size, and implant position, as well as the degree of correction of the vocal fold. As implant material, a silicone block, ePTFE, and hydroxyapatite had been inserted in 2, 9, and 11 patients, respectively. Comparisons of the prevalence of abnormalities in the abovementioned factors between the different outcomes and between the types of material used for the implant were performed. Twelve patients with a poor outcome and 10 with a good outcome showed 36 and 18 abnormal findings identified by either of the two laryngologists, respectively. In the poor outcome group, a smaller implant size and undercorrection of the vocal fold showed both high kappa values and a significantly higher prevalence than those in the good outcome group (p < 0.001 and p < 0.05), respectively. The comparison between material types demonstrated that the sheet-like material (ePTFE) group exhibited a significantly higher prevalence of undercorrection than the block-like material group (p < 0.05).

  12. Causality and headache triggers

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

  13. Risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

    PubMed

    Arita, Aki; Sasanabe, Ryujiro; Hasegawa, Rika; Nomura, Atsuhiko; Hori, Reiko; Mano, Mamiko; Konishi, Noriyuki; Shiomi, Toshiaki

    2015-12-01

    We examined the risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in subjects with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). We asked licensed drivers with history of snoring and excessive daytime sleepiness who had undergone polysomnography (PSG) at the Department of Sleep Medicine/Sleep Disorders Center at Aichi Medical University Hospital to complete the questionnaires on accidents caused by falling asleep while driving. As a subjective measure of sleepiness, we used the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS). Based on PSG results, 2387 subjects diagnosed with OSAS were divided into three groups according to apnea-hypopnea index (AHI): mild-to-moderate (5 ≤ AHI < 30), severe (30 ≤ AHI < 60), and very severe (AHI ≥ 60). We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression on variables that might explain falling asleep at the wheel. We compared results between each group and simple snorers (394 subjects with AHI < 5) and found the group with very severe OSAS reported significantly higher rates of driving when drowsy and having accidents in the past 5 years due to falling asleep. Our multivariate analysis suggests that scores on the ESS and patient-reported frequency of feeling drowsy while regular driving and working are related to automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving.

  14. Reasoning about Causal Relationships: Inferences on Causal Networks

    PubMed Central

    Rottman, Benjamin Margolin; Hastie, Reid

    2013-01-01

    Over the last decade, a normative framework for making causal inferences, Bayesian Probabilistic Causal Networks, has come to dominate psychological studies of inference based on causal relationships. The following causal networks—[X→Y→Z, X←Y→Z, X→Y←Z]—supply answers for questions like, “Suppose both X and Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” or “Suppose you intervene and make Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” In this review, we provide a tutorial for how normatively to calculate these inferences. Then, we systematically detail the results of behavioral studies comparing human qualitative and quantitative judgments to the normative calculations for many network structures and for several types of inferences on those networks. Overall, when the normative calculations imply that an inference should increase, judgments usually go up; when calculations imply a decrease, judgments usually go down. However, two systematic deviations appear. First, people’s inferences violate the Markov assumption. For example, when inferring Z from the structure X→Y→Z, people think that X is relevant even when Y completely mediates the relationship between X and Z. Second, even when people’s inferences are directionally consistent with the normative calculations, they are often not as sensitive to the parameters and the structure of the network as they should be. We conclude with a discussion of productive directions for future research. PMID:23544658

  15. Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro-Ruiz, Esteban; Giacomini, Flaminia; Brukner, Časlav

    2018-01-01

    It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B ). Here, we develop a framework for "dynamics of causal structures," i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B , via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A . We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

  16. Causality and causal inference in epidemiology: the need for a pluralistic approach

    PubMed Central

    Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Broadbent, Alex; Pearce, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Causal inference based on a restricted version of the potential outcomes approach reasoning is assuming an increasingly prominent place in the teaching and practice of epidemiology. The proposed concepts and methods are useful for particular problems, but it would be of concern if the theory and practice of the complete field of epidemiology were to become restricted to this single approach to causal inference. Our concerns are that this theory restricts the questions that epidemiologists may ask and the study designs that they may consider. It also restricts the evidence that may be considered acceptable to assess causality, and thereby the evidence that may be considered acceptable for scientific and public health decision making. These restrictions are based on a particular conceptual framework for thinking about causality. In Section 1, we describe the characteristics of the restricted potential outcomes approach (RPOA) and show that there is a methodological movement which advocates these principles, not just for solving particular problems, but as ideals for which epidemiology as a whole should strive. In Section 2, we seek to show that the limitation of epidemiology to one particular view of the nature of causality is problematic. In Section 3, we argue that the RPOA is also problematic with regard to the assessment of causality. We argue that it threatens to restrict study design choice, to wrongly discredit the results of types of observational studies that have been very useful in the past and to damage the teaching of epidemiological reasoning. Finally, in Section 4 we set out what we regard as a more reasonable ‘working hypothesis’ as to the nature of causality and its assessment: pragmatic pluralism. PMID:26800751

  17. Redundant variables and Granger causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angelini, L.; de Tommaso, M.; Marinazzo, D.; Nitti, L.; Pellicoro, M.; Stramaglia, S.

    2010-03-01

    We discuss the use of multivariate Granger causality in presence of redundant variables: the application of the standard analysis, in this case, leads to under estimation of causalities. Using the un-normalized version of the causality index, we quantitatively develop the notions of redundancy and synergy in the frame of causality and propose two approaches to group redundant variables: (i) for a given target, the remaining variables are grouped so as to maximize the total causality and (ii) the whole set of variables is partitioned to maximize the sum of the causalities between subsets. We show the application to a real neurological experiment, aiming to a deeper understanding of the physiological basis of abnormal neuronal oscillations in the migraine brain. The outcome by our approach reveals the change in the informational pattern due to repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulations.

  18. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  19. Mortality from accidents, disease, suicide and homicide in the British fishing industry from 1900 to 2010.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Stephen E; Carter, Tim

    2015-01-01

    To establish the causes of mortality in the British fishing industry from 1900 up to 2010, to investigate long term trends in mortality and to identify causal factors in the mortality patterns and rates. A longitudinal study, based on examinations of official death inquiry files, marine accident investigation files and reports, death registers and annual death returns. Mortality rates from accidents while working at sea remain high in the British fishing industry. Over the twentieth century there has been a progressive fall in the numbers of deaths, much of this relates to changes in fishing methods and in the types of vessels used. However in recent years, and with a fleet of smaller vessels, the mortality rates from accidents have shown little change and a larger proportion of deaths than in the past have arisen from personal injuries and drowning as compared to vessel losses. Disease makes a relatively small contribution to mortality at sea and this has dwindled with the decline in distant water fishing. Suicide and homicide both feature in a small way, but rates cannot readily be compared with those ashore. The pattern of change in vessels, fisheries and fishing techniques over the study period are complex. However, improved injury and drowning prevention is the most important way to reduce deaths, coupled with attention to vessel stability and maintenance. The social, economic and organisational features of the fishing industry mean that securing improvements in these areas is a major challenge.

  20. Urinary saturation: casual or causal risk factor in urolithiasis?

    PubMed

    Rodgers, Allen L

    2014-07-01

    To assess (i) the extent to which urinary supersaturation (SS) has successfully discriminated between stone formers and healthy individuals (N), (ii) whether absolute SS has diagnostic worth and (iii) whether high SS is the fundamental cause of stone formation per se. Google Scholar was used to identify studies in which urinary compositional data had been determined. In those cases where SS values were not given, or where other risk indices had been reported, they were (re-)calculated. Collected data were termed 'global' but were then 'filtered' according to stone type and protocols used for SS calculations. SS distribution plots for calcium oxalate, brushite and uric acid were constructed. Data were statistically analysed using the unpaired t-test and Mann-Whitney test. In all, 47 studies yielded 123 SS values for healthy individuals and 122 values for stone formers. The mean and median SS values were significantly greater in stone formers compared with healthy individuals in all but one of the comparisons. Wide variations in SS occurred for healthy individuals and stone formers. The two groups could not be separated. Absolute SS has no diagnostic worth. It is impossible to quantify the meaning of a 'high' SS value. Urines cannot be identified as originating from healthy individuals or stone formers based on their SS. SS should be determined in clinical and research settings for relative comparisons during the assessment of treatment efficacies. This study provides a compelling argument for SS being a casual factor rather than a causal one. © 2013 The Author. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

  1. Experimental test of nonlocal causality.

    PubMed

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell's local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect.

  2. A causal examination of the effects of confounding factors on multimetric indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoolmaster, Donald R.; Grace, James B.; Schweiger, E. William; Mitchell, Brian R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2013-01-01

    The development of multimetric indices (MMIs) as a means of providing integrative measures of ecosystem condition is becoming widespread. An increasingly recognized problem for the interpretability of MMIs is controlling for the potentially confounding influences of environmental covariates. Most common approaches to handling covariates are based on simple notions of statistical control, leaving the causal implications of covariates and their adjustment unstated. In this paper, we use graphical models to examine some of the potential impacts of environmental covariates on the observed signals between human disturbance and potential response metrics. Using simulations based on various causal networks, we show how environmental covariates can both obscure and exaggerate the effects of human disturbance on individual metrics. We then examine from a causal interpretation standpoint the common practice of adjusting ecological metrics for environmental influences using only the set of sites deemed to be in reference condition. We present and examine the performance of an alternative approach to metric adjustment that uses the whole set of sites and models both environmental and human disturbance effects simultaneously. The findings from our analyses indicate that failing to model and adjust metrics can result in a systematic bias towards those metrics in which environmental covariates function to artificially strengthen the metric–disturbance relationship resulting in MMIs that do not accurately measure impacts of human disturbance. We also find that a “whole-set modeling approach” requires fewer assumptions and is more efficient with the given information than the more commonly applied “reference-set” approach.

  3. Indonesian Sea Accident Analysis (Case Study From 2003 – 2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arya Dewanto, Y.; Faturachman, D.

    2018-03-01

    There are so many accidents in sea transportation in Indonesia. Most of the accidents happen because of low concern aspects of the safety and security of the crew. In sailing, a man as transport users to interact with the ship and the surrounding environment (including other ships, cruise lines, ports, and the situation of local conditions). These interactions are sometimes very complex and related to various aspects of. Aware of the multiplicity of aspects related to the third of these factors, seeking the safety of cruise through a reduction in the number of accidents and the risk of death and serious injuries due to accidents and goods transported is certainly not enough attempted through mono-sector approach, but rather takes a multi-sector approach to the efforts. In this paper, we described the Indonesian Sea Transportation accident analysis for eleven years divided into four items: total of ship accident type, ship accident factor, total of casualties, region of ship accidents. All data founded from Marine Court (Mahkamah Pelayaran). From that 4 items we can find Indonesia Sea Accident Analysis from 2003-2013.

  4. Causality and causal inference in epidemiology: the need for a pluralistic approach.

    PubMed

    Vandenbroucke, Jan P; Broadbent, Alex; Pearce, Neil

    2016-12-01

    Causal inference based on a restricted version of the potential outcomes approach reasoning is assuming an increasingly prominent place in the teaching and practice of epidemiology. The proposed concepts and methods are useful for particular problems, but it would be of concern if the theory and practice of the complete field of epidemiology were to become restricted to this single approach to causal inference. Our concerns are that this theory restricts the questions that epidemiologists may ask and the study designs that they may consider. It also restricts the evidence that may be considered acceptable to assess causality, and thereby the evidence that may be considered acceptable for scientific and public health decision making. These restrictions are based on a particular conceptual framework for thinking about causality. In Section 1, we describe the characteristics of the restricted potential outcomes approach (RPOA) and show that there is a methodological movement which advocates these principles, not just for solving particular problems, but as ideals for which epidemiology as a whole should strive. In Section 2, we seek to show that the limitation of epidemiology to one particular view of the nature of causality is problematic. In Section 3, we argue that the RPOA is also problematic with regard to the assessment of causality. We argue that it threatens to restrict study design choice, to wrongly discredit the results of types of observational studies that have been very useful in the past and to damage the teaching of epidemiological reasoning. Finally, in Section 4 we set out what we regard as a more reasonable 'working hypothesis' as to the nature of causality and its assessment: pragmatic pluralism. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  5. Analysis on Dangerous Source of Large Safety Accident in Storage Tank Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tong; Li, Ying; Xie, Tiansheng; Liu, Yu; Zhu, Xueyuan

    2018-01-01

    The difference between a large safety accident and a general accident is that the consequences of a large safety accident are particularly serious. To study the tank area which factors directly or indirectly lead to the occurrence of large-sized safety accidents. According to the three kinds of hazard source theory and the consequence cause analysis of the super safety accident, this paper analyzes the dangerous source of the super safety accident in the tank area from four aspects, such as energy source, large-sized safety accident reason, management missing, environmental impact Based on the analysis of three kinds of hazard sources and environmental analysis to derive the main risk factors and the AHP evaluation model is established, and after rigorous and scientific calculation, the weights of the related factors in four kinds of risk factors and each type of risk factors are obtained. The result of analytic hierarchy process shows that management reasons is the most important one, and then the environmental factors and the direct cause and Energy source. It should be noted that although the direct cause is relatively low overall importance, the direct cause of Failure of emergency measures and Failure of prevention and control facilities in greater weight.

  6. Research on injury compensation and health outcomes: ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion.

    PubMed

    Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B; Nghiem, Hong S; Pobereskin, Louis

    2012-11-01

    This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims--a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Bayes and blickets: Effects of knowledge on causal induction in children and adults

    PubMed Central

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Sobel, David M.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Gopnik, Alison

    2011-01-01

    People are adept at inferring novel causal relations, even from only a few observations. Prior knowledge about the probability of encountering causal relations of various types and the nature of the mechanisms relating causes and effects plays a crucial role in these inferences. We test a formal account of how this knowledge can be used and acquired, based on analyzing causal induction as Bayesian inference. Five studies explored the predictions of this account with adults and 4-year-olds, using tasks in which participants learned about the causal properties of a set of objects. The studies varied the two factors that our Bayesian approach predicted should be relevant to causal induction: the prior probability with which causal relations exist, and the assumption of a deterministic or a probabilistic relation between cause and effect. Adults’ judgments (Experiments 1, 2, and 4) were in close correspondence with the quantitative predictions of the model, and children’s judgments (Experiments 3 and 5) agreed qualitatively with this account. PMID:21972897

  8. Experimental test of nonlocal causality

    PubMed Central

    Ringbauer, Martin; Giarmatzi, Christina; Chaves, Rafael; Costa, Fabio; White, Andrew G.; Fedrizzi, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Explaining observations in terms of causes and effects is central to empirical science. However, correlations between entangled quantum particles seem to defy such an explanation. This implies that some of the fundamental assumptions of causal explanations have to give way. We consider a relaxation of one of these assumptions, Bell’s local causality, by allowing outcome dependence: a direct causal influence between the outcomes of measurements of remote parties. We use interventional data from a photonic experiment to bound the strength of this causal influence in a two-party Bell scenario, and observational data from a Bell-type inequality test for the considered models. Our results demonstrate the incompatibility of quantum mechanics with a broad class of nonlocal causal models, which includes Bell-local models as a special case. Recovering a classical causal picture of quantum correlations thus requires an even more radical modification of our classical notion of cause and effect. PMID:27532045

  9. Causality in cancer epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Lagiou, Pagona; Adami, Hans-Olov; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios

    2005-01-01

    In this review, issues of causality in epidemiologic research with emphasis on the aetiology of human cancer are considered. Principles of assessing causation in epidemiological studies of cancer are distinguished into those concerning an individual study, several studies and a particular person. Strengths and weaknesses of various approaches of documenting carcinogenicity in humans are examined and lists of major established causes of human cancer are presented. The review concludes with estimates of mortality from cancer around the world that can be attributed to specific factors under the light of the current scientific knowledge.

  10. Causal conditionals and counterfactuals

    PubMed Central

    Frosch, Caren A.; Byrne, Ruth M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Causal counterfactuals e.g., ‘if the ignition key had been turned then the car would have started’ and causal conditionals e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ are understood by thinking about multiple possibilities of different sorts, as shown in six experiments using converging evidence from three different types of measures. Experiments 1a and 1b showed that conditionals that comprise enabling causes, e.g., ‘if the ignition key was turned then the car started’ primed people to read quickly conjunctions referring to the possibility of the enabler occurring without the outcome, e.g., ‘the ignition key was turned and the car did not start’. Experiments 2a and 2b showed that people paraphrased causal conditionals by using causal or temporal connectives (because, when), whereas they paraphrased causal counterfactuals by using subjunctive constructions (had…would have). Experiments 3a and 3b showed that people made different inferences from counterfactuals presented with enabling conditions compared to none. The implications of the results for alternative theories of conditionals are discussed. PMID:22858874

  11. Causal Discovery of Dynamic Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Voortman, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Recently, several philosophical and computational approaches to causality have used an interventionist framework to clarify the concept of causality [Spirtes et al., 2000, Pearl, 2000, Woodward, 2005]. The characteristic feature of the interventionist approach is that causal models are potentially useful in predicting the effects of manipulations.…

  12. Glider accidents: an analysis of 143 cases, 2001-2005.

    PubMed

    van Doorn, Robert R A; de Voogt, Alexander J

    2007-01-01

    The majority of aviation crashes and casualties take place in general and sport aviation. Although gliding has gained popularity in recent decades, we could find no systematic analysis of glider accidents. This study determined factors associated with both non-fatal and fatal glider accidents to document their position within sport and general aviation accidents, and to suggest preventive measures and improvements. We performed a retrospective review of glider accidents for the period 2001-2005 in the database maintained by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). A total of 117 non-fatal and 26 fatal glider accidents were reported for the 5-yr period. Adverse weather was the cause in 20% of all non-fatal accidents, 60% of which occurred in the cruise phase. Logistic regression revealed that fatal accidents were predicted by pilot error, flight phase, and home-built aircraft. Factors contributing to glider crashes are specific to this type of sport aviation. Owners of home-built gliders should pay particular attention to the aircraft's specifications and design limits.

  13. Preliminary analysis of the National Crash Severity Study : factors in fatal accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-06-01

    This study investigates the fatalities on the National Crash Severity Study (NCSS) of towaway, passenger car accidents. The analysis is in three stages. First, NCSS fatalities are compared to the fatally-injured occupants reported on the Fatal Accide...

  14. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review

    PubMed Central

    Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables. PMID:29077045

  15. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review.

    PubMed

    Takebayashi, Yoshitake; Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-10-27

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables.

  16. Experimental verification of an indefinite causal order

    PubMed Central

    Rubino, Giulia; Rozema, Lee A.; Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Zeuner, Jonas M.; Procopio, Lorenzo M.; Brukner, Časlav; Walther, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Investigating the role of causal order in quantum mechanics has recently revealed that the causal relations of events may not be a priori well defined in quantum theory. Although this has triggered a growing interest on the theoretical side, creating processes without a causal order is an experimental task. We report the first decisive demonstration of a process with an indefinite causal order. To do this, we quantify how incompatible our setup is with a definite causal order by measuring a “causal witness.” This mathematical object incorporates a series of measurements that are designed to yield a certain outcome only if the process under examination is not consistent with any well-defined causal order. In our experiment, we perform a measurement in a superposition of causal orders—without destroying the coherence—to acquire information both inside and outside of a “causally nonordered process.” Using this information, we experimentally determine a causal witness, demonstrating by almost 7 SDs that the experimentally implemented process does not have a definite causal order. PMID:28378018

  17. Causal illusions in children when the outcome is frequent

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Causal illusions occur when people perceive a causal relation between two events that are actually unrelated. One factor that has been shown to promote these mistaken beliefs is the outcome probability. Thus, people tend to overestimate the strength of a causal relation when the potential consequence (i.e. the outcome) occurs with a high probability (outcome-density bias). Given that children and adults differ in several important features involved in causal judgment, including prior knowledge and basic cognitive skills, developmental studies can be considered an outstanding approach to detect and further explore the psychological processes and mechanisms underlying this bias. However, the outcome density bias has been mainly explored in adulthood, and no previous evidence for this bias has been reported in children. Thus, the purpose of this study was to extend outcome-density bias research to childhood. In two experiments, children between 6 and 8 years old were exposed to two similar setups, both showing a non-contingent relation between the potential cause and the outcome. These two scenarios differed only in the probability of the outcome, which could either be high or low. Children judged the relation between the two events to be stronger in the high probability of the outcome setting, revealing that, like adults, they develop causal illusions when the outcome is frequent. PMID:28898294

  18. Helicopter sling load accident/incident survey: 1968 - 1974

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaughnessy, J. D.; Pardue, M. D.

    1977-01-01

    During the period considered a mean of eleven accidents per year occurred and a mean of eleven persons were killed or seriously injured per year. Forty-one percent of the accidents occurred during hover, and 63 percent of the accidents had pilot error listed as a cause/factor. Many accidents involved pilots losing control of the helicopter or allowing a collision with obstructions to occur. There was a mean of 58 incidents each year and 51 percent of these occurred during cruise.

  19. Quad City Intersection Traffic Accident Study: 1993 Data

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1996-03-01

    Accident information is an important factor from which to work towards the : regional Transportation System Management (TSM) objective of improving the : safety of the local transportation system. The 1993 Quad City Intersection : Traffic Accident Re...

  20. Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

    2018-05-01

    The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

  1. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric andmore » biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.« less

  2. A Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) Examination of Commercial Vessel Accidents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    Naval Operations before the Congress on FY2013 Department of Navy posture. Heinrich , H . W. (1941). Industrial accident prevention : A scientific...Theory The core of the Domino Theory, developed by Herbert W. Heinrich who studied industrial safety in the early 1900s, is that accidents are a result...chain of events resulting in an accident . Heinrich likened the dominos to unsafe conditions or unsafe acts, where their subsequent removal prevents a

  3. Quantum correlations with no causal order

    PubMed Central

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Costa, Fabio; Brukner, Časlav

    2012-01-01

    The idea that events obey a definite causal order is deeply rooted in our understanding of the world and at the basis of the very notion of time. But where does causal order come from, and is it a necessary property of nature? Here, we address these questions from the standpoint of quantum mechanics in a new framework for multipartite correlations that does not assume a pre-defined global causal structure but only the validity of quantum mechanics locally. All known situations that respect causal order, including space-like and time-like separated experiments, are captured by this framework in a unified way. Surprisingly, we find correlations that cannot be understood in terms of definite causal order. These correlations violate a 'causal inequality' that is satisfied by all space-like and time-like correlations. We further show that in a classical limit causal order always arises, which suggests that space-time may emerge from a more fundamental structure in a quantum-to-classical transition. PMID:23033068

  4. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  5. A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

    2017-01-01

    A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

  6. Does sufficient evidence exist to support a causal association between vitamin D status and cardiovascular disease risk? An assessment using Hill's criteria for causality.

    PubMed

    Weyland, Patricia G; Grant, William B; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

    2014-09-02

    Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor.

  7. How accurate is accident data in road safety research? An application of vehicle black box data regarding pedestrian-to-taxi accidents in Korea.

    PubMed

    Chung, Younshik; Chang, IlJoon

    2015-11-01

    Recently, the introduction of vehicle black box systems or in-vehicle video event data recorders enables the driver to use the system to collect more accurate crash information such as location, time, and situation at the pre-crash and crash moment, which can be analyzed to find the crash causal factors more accurately. This study presents the vehicle black box system in brief and its application status in Korea. Based on the crash data obtained from the vehicle black box system, this study analyzes the accuracy of the crash data collected from existing road crash data recording method, which has been recorded by police officers based on accident parties' statements or eyewitness's account. The analysis results show that the crash data observed by the existing method have an average of 84.48m of spatial difference and standard deviation of 157.75m as well as average 29.05min of temporal error and standard deviation of 19.24min. Additionally, the average and standard deviation of crash speed errors were found to be 9.03km/h and 7.21km/h, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Traffic accidents involving fatigue driving and their extent of casualties.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Zhang, Xun; Li, Yanyan

    2016-02-01

    The rapid progress of motorization has increased the number of traffic-related casualties. Although fatigue driving is a major cause of traffic accidents, the public remains not rather aware of its potential harmfulness. Fatigue driving has been termed as a "silent killer." Thus, a thorough study of traffic accidents and the risk factors associated with fatigue-related casualties is of utmost importance. In this study, we analyze traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. The study data were extracted from the traffic accident database of China's Public Security Department. A logistic regression model is used to assess the effect of driver characteristics, type of vehicles, road conditions, and environmental factors on fatigue-related traffic accident occurrence and severity. On the one hand, male drivers, trucks, driving during midnight to dawn, and morning rush hours are identified as risk factors of fatigue-related crashes but do not necessarily result in severe casualties. Driving at night without street-lights contributes to fatigue-related crashes and severe casualties. On the other hand, while factors such as less experienced drivers, unsafe vehicle status, slippery roads, driving at night with street-lights, and weekends do not have significant effect on fatigue-related crashes, yet accidents associated with these factors are likely to have severe casualties. The empirical results of the present study have important policy implications on the reduction of fatigue-related crashes as well as their severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Causal capture effects in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

    PubMed

    Matsuno, Toyomi; Tomonaga, Masaki

    2017-01-01

    Extracting a cause-and-effect structure from the physical world is an important demand for animals living in dynamically changing environments. Human perceptual and cognitive mechanisms are known to be sensitive and tuned to detect and interpret such causal structures. In contrast to rigorous investigations of human causal perception, the phylogenetic roots of this perception are not well understood. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the susceptibility of nonhuman animals to mechanical causality by testing whether chimpanzees perceived an illusion called causal capture (Scholl & Nakayama, 2002). Causal capture is a phenomenon in which a type of bistable visual motion of objects is perceived as causal collision due to a bias from a co-occurring causal event. In our experiments, we assessed the susceptibility of perception of a bistable stream/bounce motion event to a co-occurring causal event in chimpanzees. The results show that, similar to in humans, causal "bounce" percepts were significantly increased in chimpanzees with the addition of a task-irrelevant causal bounce event that was synchronously presented. These outcomes suggest that the perceptual mechanisms behind the visual interpretation of causal structures in the environment are evolutionarily shared between human and nonhuman animals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Medical and Toxicological Factors in Aircraft Accidents,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-04-01

    Aviation Administration LOffice of Aviation Medicine Washington, D.C. 20591 COP 80 8 8 010’ NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship...No. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73125 13. Type of rt and Perod Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address -- Office of Aviation Medicine I /I I Federal...are routinely screened for in accident victims, but positive results are unusual. marihuana is a drug of more widespread use, but it has been

  11. Serum homocysteine levels in cerebrovascular accidents.

    PubMed

    Zongte, Zolianthanga; Shaini, L; Debbarma, Asis; Singh, Th Bhimo; Devi, S Bilasini; Singh, W Gyaneshwar

    2008-04-01

    Hyperhomocysteinemia has been considered an independent risk factor in the development of stroke. The present study was undertaken to evaluate serum homocysteine levels in patients with cerebrovascular accidents among the Manipuri population and to compare with the normal cases. Ninety-three cerebrovascular accident cases admitted in the hospital were enrolled for the study and twenty-seven age and sex matched individuals free from cerebrovascular diseases were taken as control group. Serum homocysteine levels were estimated by ELISA method using Axis homocysteine EIA kit manufactured by Ranbaxy Diagnostic Ltd. India. The finding suggests that hyperhomocysteinemia is associated with cerebrovascular accident with male preponderance, which increases with advancing age. However, whether hyperhomocysteinemia is the cause or the result of cerebrovascular accidents needs further investigations.

  12. How contrast situations affect the assignment of causality in symmetric physical settings.

    PubMed

    Beller, Sieghard; Bender, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    In determining the prime cause of a physical event, people often weight one of two entities in a symmetric physical relation as more important for bringing about the causal effect than the other. In a broad survey (Bender and Beller, 2011), we documented such weighting effects for different kinds of physical events and found that their direction and strength depended on a variety of factors. Here, we focus on one of those: adding a contrast situation that-while being formally irrelevant-foregrounds one of the factors and thus frames the task in a specific way. In two experiments, we generalize and validate our previous findings by using different stimulus material (in Experiment 1), by applying a different response format to elicit causal assignments, an analog rating scale instead of a forced-choice decision (in Experiment 2), and by eliciting explanations for the physical events in question (in both Experiments). The results generally confirm the contrast effects for both response formats; however, the effects were more pronounced with the force-choice format than with the rating format. People tended to refer to the given contrast in their explanations, which validates our manipulation. Finally, people's causal assignments are reflected in the type of explanation given in that contrast and property explanations were associated with biased causal assignments, whereas relational explanations were associated with unbiased assignments. In the discussion, we pick up the normative questions of whether or not these contrast effects constitute a bias in causal reasoning.

  13. Secondary school accident reporting in one education authority.

    PubMed

    Williams, W R; Latif, A H A; Sibert, J

    2002-01-01

    Secondary schools appear to have very different accident rates when they are compared on the basis of accident report returns. The variation may be as a result of real differences in accident rates or different reporting procedures. This study investigates accident reporting from secondary schools and, in particular, the role of the school nurse. Accident form returns covering a 2-year period were collected for statistical analysis from 13 comprehensive schools in one local education authority in Wales. School sites were visited in the following school year to obtain information about accident records held on site and accident reporting procedures. The main factors determining the number of school accident reports submitted to the education authority relate to differences in recording and reporting procedures, such as the employment of a nurse and the policy of the head teacher/safety officer on submitting accident returns. Accident and emergency department referrals from similar schools may show significant differences in specific injuries and their causes. The level of school accident activity cannot be gauged from reports submitted to the education authority. Lack of incentives for collecting good accident data, in conjunction with the degree of complacency in the current system, suggest that future accident rates and reporting activity are unlikely to change.

  14. A study of carburetor/induction system icing in general aviation accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Obermayer, R. W.; Roe, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the frequency and severity of carburetor/induction icing in general-aviation accidents was performed. The available literature and accident data from the National Transportation Safety Board were collected. A computer analysis of the accident data was performed. Between 65 and 90 accidents each year involve carburetor/induction system icing as a probable cause/factor. Under conditions conducive to carburetor/induction icing, between 50 and 70 percent of engine malfunction/failure accidents (exclusive of those due to fuel exhaustion) are due to carburetor/induction system icing. Since the evidence of such icing may not remain long after an accident, it is probable that the frequency of occurrence of such accidents is underestimated; therefore, some extrapolation of the data was conducted. The problem of carburetor/induction system icing is particularly acute for pilots with less than 1000 hours of total flying time. The severity of such accidents is about the same as any accident resulting from a forced landing or precautionary landing. About 144 persons, on the average, are exposed to death and injury each year in accidents involving carburetor/induction icing as a probable cause/factor.

  15. Do cultural factors affect causal beliefs? Rational and magical thinking in Britain and Mexico.

    PubMed

    Subbotsky, Eugene; Quinteros, Graciela

    2002-11-01

    In two experiments, unusual phenomena (spontaneous destruction of objects in an empty wooden box) were demonstrated to adult participants living in rural communities in Mexico. These were accompanied by actions which had no physical link to the destroyed object but could suggest either scientifically based (the effect of an unknown physical device) or non-scientifically based (the effect of a 'magic spell') causal explanations of the event. The results were compared to the results of the matching two experiments from the earlier study made in Britain. The expectation that scientifically based explanations would prevail in British participants' judgments and behaviours, whereas Mexican participants would be more tolerant toward magical explanations, received only partial support. The prevalence of scientific explanations over magical explanations was evident in British participants' verbal judgments but not in Mexican participants' judgments. In their behavioural responses under the low-risk condition, British participants rejected magical explanations more frequently than did Mexican participants. However, when the risk of disregarding the possible causal effect of magic was increased, participants in both samples showed an equal degree of credulity in the possible effect of magic. The data are interpreted in terms of the relationships between scientific and 'folk' representations of causality and object permanence.

  16. Measuring causal perception: connections to representational momentum?

    PubMed

    Choi, Hoon; Scholl, Brian J

    2006-01-01

    In a collision between two objects, we can perceive not only low-level properties, such as color and motion, but also the seemingly high-level property of causality. It has proven difficult, however, to measure causal perception in a quantitatively rigorous way which goes beyond perceptual reports. Here we focus on the possibility of measuring perceived causality using the phenomenon of representational momentum (RM). Recent studies suggest a relationship between causal perception and RM, based on the fact that RM appears to be attenuated for causally 'launched' objects. This is explained by appeal to the visual expectation that a 'launched' object is inert and thus should eventually cease its movement after a collision, without a source of self-propulsion. We first replicated these demonstrations, and then evaluated this alleged connection by exploring RM for different types of displays, including the contrast between causal launching and non-causal 'passing'. These experiments suggest that the RM-attenuation effect is not a pure measure of causal perception, but rather may reflect lower-level spatiotemporal correlates of only some causal displays. We conclude by discussing the strengths and pitfalls of various methods of measuring causal perception.

  17. The fuzzy cube and causal efficacy: representation of concomitant mechanisms in stroke.

    PubMed

    Jobe, Thomas H.; Helgason, Cathy M.

    1998-04-01

    Twentieth century medical science has embraced nineteenth century Boolean probability theory based upon two-valued Aristotelian logic. With the later addition of bit-based, von Neumann structured computational architectures, an epistemology based on randomness has led to a bivalent epidemiological methodology that dominates medical decision making. In contrast, fuzzy logic, based on twentieth century multi-valued logic, and computational structures that are content addressed and adaptively modified, has advanced a new scientific paradigm for the twenty-first century. Diseases such as stroke involve multiple concomitant causal factors that are difficult to represent using conventional statistical methods. We tested which paradigm best represented this complex multi-causal clinical phenomenon-stroke. We show that the fuzzy logic paradigm better represented clinical complexity in cerebrovascular disease than current probability theory based methodology. We believe this finding is generalizable to all of clinical science since multiple concomitant causal factors are involved in nearly all known pathological processes.

  18. Towards graphical causal structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paulsson, K. Johan

    2012-12-01

    Folowing recent work by R. Spekkens, M. Leifer and B. Coecke we investigate causal settings in a limited categorical version of the conditional density operator formalism. We particularly show how the compact structure for causal and acausal settings apply on the measurements of stabiliser theory.

  19. Re-Ranking Sequencing Variants in the Post-GWAS Era for Accurate Causal Variant Identification

    PubMed Central

    Faye, Laura L.; Machiela, Mitchell J.; Kraft, Peter; Bull, Shelley B.; Sun, Lei

    2013-01-01

    Next generation sequencing has dramatically increased our ability to localize disease-causing variants by providing base-pair level information at costs increasingly feasible for the large sample sizes required to detect complex-trait associations. Yet, identification of causal variants within an established region of association remains a challenge. Counter-intuitively, certain factors that increase power to detect an associated region can decrease power to localize the causal variant. First, combining GWAS with imputation or low coverage sequencing to achieve the large sample sizes required for high power can have the unintended effect of producing differential genotyping error among SNPs. This tends to bias the relative evidence for association toward better genotyped SNPs. Second, re-use of GWAS data for fine-mapping exploits previous findings to ensure genome-wide significance in GWAS-associated regions. However, using GWAS findings to inform fine-mapping analysis can bias evidence away from the causal SNP toward the tag SNP and SNPs in high LD with the tag. Together these factors can reduce power to localize the causal SNP by more than half. Other strategies commonly employed to increase power to detect association, namely increasing sample size and using higher density genotyping arrays, can, in certain common scenarios, actually exacerbate these effects and further decrease power to localize causal variants. We develop a re-ranking procedure that accounts for these adverse effects and substantially improves the accuracy of causal SNP identification, often doubling the probability that the causal SNP is top-ranked. Application to the NCI BPC3 aggressive prostate cancer GWAS with imputation meta-analysis identified a new top SNP at 2 of 3 associated loci and several additional possible causal SNPs at these loci that may have otherwise been overlooked. This method is simple to implement using R scripts provided on the author's website. PMID:23950724

  20. A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

    2011-07-01

    conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    PubMed

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

  2. Children's Counterfactual Reasoning About Causally Overdetermined Events.

    PubMed

    Nyhout, Angela; Henke, Lena; Ganea, Patricia A

    2017-08-07

    In two experiments, one hundred and sixty-two 6- to 8-year-olds were asked to reason counterfactually about events with different causal structures. All events involved overdetermined outcomes in which two different causal events led to the same outcome. In Experiment 1, children heard stories with either an ambiguous causal relation between events or causally unrelated events. Children in the causally unrelated version performed better than chance and better than those in the ambiguous condition. In Experiment 2, children heard stories in which antecedent events were causally connected or causally disconnected. Eight-year-olds performed above chance in both conditions, whereas 6-year-olds performed above chance only in the connected condition. This work provides the first evidence that children can reason counterfactually in causally overdetermined contexts by age 8. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  3. Human factors in aircraft incidents - Results of a 7-year study (Andre Allard Memorial Lecture)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billings, C. E.; Reynard, W. D.

    1984-01-01

    It is pointed out that nearly all fatal aircraft accidents are preventable, and that most such accidents are due to human error. The present discussion is concerned with the results of a seven-year study of the data collected by the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The Aviation Safety Reporting System was designed to stimulate as large a flow as possible of information regarding errors and operational problems in the conduct of air operations. It was implemented in April, 1976. In the following 7.5 years, 35,000 reports have been received from pilots, controllers, and the armed forces. Human errors are found in more than 80 percent of these reports. Attention is given to the types of events reported, possible causal factors in incidents, the relationship of incidents and accidents, and sources of error in the data. ASRS reports include sufficient detail to permit authorities to institute changes in the national aviation system designed to minimize the likelihood of human error, and to insulate the system against the effects of errors.

  4. [Reaction time of drivers who caused road traffic accidents].

    PubMed

    Durić, Predrag; Filipović, Danka

    2009-01-01

    Human factor is the single cause of road traffic injuries in 57%, and together with other factors in more than 90% of all road traffic accidents. Human factor includes many aspects, where reaction time is very important. Thirty healthy drivers 28-40 y.o. with 50-500 km passed per week, having caused at least one road traffic accident in the last ten years were selected, provided they were not under the influence of alcohol and drugs during traffic accident. The same number of control were selected. Both cases and controls were tested to reaction time. We found statistically significant difference between car drivers who caused car accidents and those who did not in both simple and choice reaction times. Car drivers who caused road traffic accidents have longer reaction time (both simple and choice reaction time), but as the tasks were more complex, that difference was less visible. Since drivers involved in this study had introductory phase before measuring their reaction times, they faced with unpleasant sound when they made mistake, which forced them to be aware not to make a mistake in further tasks, so they showed longer reaction times. Measuring of reaction time seems to be important, and as we have showed they are different in drivers who have caused road traffic accidents and those who have do not.

  5. The causality between smoking and lung cancer among groups and individuals: addressing issues in tobacco litigation in South Korea

    PubMed Central

    Khang, Young-Ho

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses issues on the causality between smoking and lung cancer, which have been raised during the tobacco litigation in South Korea. It should be recognized that the explanatory ability of risk factor(s) for inter-individual variations in disease occurrence is different from the causal contribution of the risk factor(s) to disease occurrence. The affected subjects of the tobacco litigation in South Korea are lung cancer patients with a history of cigarette smoking. Thus, the attributable fraction of the exposed rather than the population attributable fraction should be used in the tobacco litigation regarding the causal contribution of smoking to lung cancer. Scientific evidence for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer is based on studies of individuals and groups, studies in animals and humans, studies that are observational or experimental, studies in laboratories and communities, and studies in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The scientific evidence collected is applicable to both groups and individuals. The probability of causation, which is calculated based on the attributable fraction for the association between smoking and lung cancer, could be utilized as evidence to prove causality in individuals. PMID:26137845

  6. The causality between smoking and lung cancer among groups and individuals: addressing issues in tobacco litigation in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Khang, Young-Ho

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses issues on the causality between smoking and lung cancer, which have been raised during the tobacco litigation in South Korea. It should be recognized that the explanatory ability of risk factor(s) for inter-individual variations in disease occurrence is different from the causal contribution of the risk factor(s) to disease occurrence. The affected subjects of the tobacco litigation in South Korea are lung cancer patients with a history of cigarette smoking. Thus, the attributable fraction of the exposed rather than the population attributable fraction should be used in the tobacco litigation regarding the causal contribution of smoking to lung cancer. Scientific evidence for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer is based on studies of individuals and groups, studies in animals and humans, studies that are observational or experimental, studies in laboratories and communities, and studies in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The scientific evidence collected is applicable to both groups and individuals. The probability of causation, which is calculated based on the attributable fraction for the association between smoking and lung cancer, could be utilized as evidence to prove causality in individuals.

  7. Single pilot IFR accident data analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, D. F.; Morrisete, J. A.

    1982-01-01

    The aircraft accident data recorded and maintained by the National Transportation Safety Board for 1964 to 1979 were analyzed to determine what problems exist in the general aviation single pilot instrument flight rules environment. A previous study conducted in 1978 for the years 1964 to 1975 provided a basis for comparison. The purpose was to determine what changes, if any, have occurred in trends and cause-effect relationships reported in the earlier study. The increasing numbers have been tied to measures of activity to produce accident rates which in turn were analyzed in terms of change. Where anomalies or unusually high accident rates were encountered, further analysis was conducted to isolate pertinent patterns of cause factors and/or experience levels of involved pilots. The bulk of the effort addresses accidents in the landing phase of operations. A detailed analysis was performed on controlled/uncontrolled collisions and their unique attributes delineated. Estimates of day vs. night general aviation activity and accident rates were obtained.

  8. Driving behaviors and on-duty road accidents: a French case-control study.

    PubMed

    Fort, Emmanuel; Chiron, Mireille; Davezies, Philippe; Bergeret, Alain; Charbotel, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    A case-control study was carried out to identify driving behaviors associated with the risk of on-duty road accident and to compare driving behaviors according to the type of journey (on duty, commuting, and private) for on-duty road accident victims. Cases were recruited from the Rhône Road Trauma Registry between January 2004 and October 2005 and were on duty at the time of the accident. Control subjects were recruited from the electoral rolls of the case subjects' constituencies of residence. Cases' and controls' driving behavior data were collected by self-administered questionnaire. A logistic regression was performed to identify behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents, taking into account age, sex, place of residence, road accident risk exposure, socio-occupational category, and type of road user. A second analysis focused specifically on the case subjects, comparing their self-assessed usual behaviors according to the type of journey. Significant factors for multivariate analysis of on-duty road accidents were female gender, history of on-duty road accidents during the previous 10 years, severe time pressure at work, and driving a vehicle not belonging to the driver. On-duty road accident victims reported behavioral risk factors more frequently in relation to driving for work than driving for private reasons or commuting: nonsystematic seat belt use, cell phone use at least once daily while driving, and history of accidents with injury during the previous 10 years. This study provides knowledge on behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents and differences in behavior according to the type of journey for subjects who have been on-duty road accident victims. These results will be useful for the design of on-duty road risk prevention.

  9. Content analysis of 100 consecutive media reports of amusement ride accidents.

    PubMed

    Woodcock, Kathryn

    2008-01-01

    Accident investigations influence public perceptions and safety management strategies by determining the amount and type of information learned about the accident. To examine the factors considered in investigations, this study used a content analysis of 100 consecutive media reports of amusement ride accidents from an online media archive. Fatalities were overrepresented in the media dataset compared with U.S. national estimates. For analysis of reports, a modified "Haddon matrix" was developed using human-factors categories. This approach was useful to show differences between the proportions and types of factors considered in the different accident stages and between employee and rider accidents. Employee injury accounts primarily referred to the employee's task and to the employee. Rider injury reports were primarily related to the ride device itself and rarely referred to the rider's "task", social influences, or the rider's own actions, and only some reference to their characteristics. Qualitatively, it was evident that more human factors analysis is required to augment scant pre-failure information about the task, social environment, and the person, to make that information available for prevention of amusement ride accidents. By design, this study reflected information reported by the media. Future work will use the same techniques with official reports.

  10. Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

    PubMed Central

    Weyland, Patricia G.; Grant, William B.; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor. PMID:25184368

  11. Emotional reactivity: Beware its involvement in traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    M'bailara, Katia; Atzeni, Thierry; Contrand, Benjamin; Derguy, Cyrielle; Bouvard, Manuel-Pierre; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Galéra, Cédric

    2018-04-01

    Reducing risk attributable to traffic accidents is a public health challenge. Research into risk factors in the area is now moving towards identification of the psychological factors involved, particularly emotional states. The aim of this study was to evaluate the link between emotional reactivity and responsibility in road traffic accidents. We hypothesized that the more one's emotional reactivity is disturbed, the greater the likelihood of being responsible for a traffic accident. This case-control study was based on a sample of 955 drivers injured in a motor vehicle crash. Responsibility levels were determined with a standardized method adapted from the quantitative Robertson and Drummer crash responsibility instrument. Emotional reactivity was assessed with the MATHYS. Hierarchical cluster analysis discriminated four distinctive driver's emotional reactivity profiles: basic emotional reactivity (54%), mild emotional hyper-reactivity (29%), emotional hyper-reactivity (11%) and emotional hypo-reactivity (6%). Drivers who demonstrated emotional hypo-reactivity had a 2.3-fold greater risk of being responsible for a traffic accident than those with basic emotional reactivity. Drivers' responsibility in traffic accidents depends on their emotional status. The latter can change the ability of drivers, modifying their behavior and thus increasing their propensity to exhibit risk behavior and to cause traffic accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Exploring individual differences in preschoolers' causal stance.

    PubMed

    Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E

    2016-03-01

    Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In this study, we explored the coherence and short-term stability of individual differences in children's causal stance. We also began to investigate the origins of this variability, focusing particularly on the potential role of mothers' explanatory talk in shaping the causal stance of their children. Two measures of causal stance correlated with each other, as well as themselves across time. Both also revealed internal consistency of response. The strength of children's causal stance also correlated with mother's responses on the same tasks and the frequency with which mothers emphasized causality during naturalistic joint activities with their children. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Worker safety and injury severity analysis of earthmoving equipment accidents.

    PubMed

    Kazan, Emrah; Usmen, Mumtaz A

    2018-06-01

    Research on construction worker safety associated with construction equipment has mostly focused on accident type rather than injury severity and the embedded factor relationships. Significant variables and their effects on the degree of injury are examined for earthmoving equipment using data from OSHA. Four types of equipment, backhoe, bulldozer, excavator, and scraper are included in the study. Accidents involving on-foot workers and equipment operators are investigated collectively, as well as separately. Cross tabulation analysis was conducted to establish the associations between selected categorical variables, using degree of injury as a dichotomous dependent variable (fatal vs. nonfatal) and a number of independent variables having different values. Odds ratios were calculated to determine how much a certain variable/factor increases the odds of fatality in an accident, and the odds ratios were ranked to determine the relative impact of a given factor. It was found that twelve variables were significantly associated with injury severity. Rankings based on odds ratios showed that inadequate safety training (2.54), missing equipment protective system (2.38), being a non-union worker (2.26), being an equipment operator (1.93), and being on or around inadequately maintained equipment (1.58) produced higher odds for fatality. A majority of the earthmoving equipment accidents resulted in fatality. Backhoes were the most common equipment involved in accidents and fatalities. Struck-by accidents were the most prevalent and most fatal. Non-OSHA compliant safety training, missing seatbelt, operator not using seatbelt, malfunctioning back-up alarms, and poorly maintained equipment were factors contributing to accidents and fatalities. On-foot workers experienced a higher number of accidents than operators, while fatality odds were higher for the operators. Practical applications: Safety professionals should benefit from our findings in planning and delivering training

  14. Granger causality for state-space models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K.

    2015-04-01

    Granger causality has long been a prominent method for inferring causal interactions between stochastic variables for a broad range of complex physical systems. However, it has been recognized that a moving average (MA) component in the data presents a serious confound to Granger causal analysis, as routinely performed via autoregressive (AR) modeling. We solve this problem by demonstrating that Granger causality may be calculated simply and efficiently from the parameters of a state-space (SS) model. Since SS models are equivalent to autoregressive moving average models, Granger causality estimated in this fashion is not degraded by the presence of a MA component. This is of particular significance when the data has been filtered, downsampled, observed with noise, or is a subprocess of a higher dimensional process, since all of these operations—commonplace in application domains as diverse as climate science, econometrics, and the neurosciences—induce a MA component. We show how Granger causality, conditional and unconditional, in both time and frequency domains, may be calculated directly from SS model parameters via solution of a discrete algebraic Riccati equation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that Granger causality estimators thus derived have greater statistical power and smaller bias than AR estimators. We also discuss how the SS approach facilitates relaxation of the assumptions of linearity, stationarity, and homoscedasticity underlying current AR methods, thus opening up potentially significant new areas of research in Granger causal analysis.

  15. Effectiveness of electronic stability control on single-vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Hels, Tove; Bernhoft, Inger Marie

    2015-01-01

    This study aims at evaluating the effectiveness of electronic stability control (ESC) on single-vehicle injury accidents while controlling for a number of confounders influencing the accident risk. Using police-registered injury accidents from 2004 to 2011 in Denmark with cars manufactured in the period 1998 to 2011 and the principle of induced exposure, 2 measures of the effectiveness of ESC were calculated: The crude odds ratio and the adjusted odds ratio, the latter by means of logistic regression. The logistic regression controlled for a number of confounding factors, of which the following were significant. For the driver: Age, gender, driving experience, valid driving license, and seat belt use. For the vehicle: Year of registration, weight, and ESC. For the accident surroundings: Visibility, light, and location. Finally, for the road: Speed limit, surface, and section characteristics. The present study calculated the crude odds ratio for ESC-equipped cars of getting in a single-vehicle injury accident as 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.47) and the adjusted odds ratio as 0.69 (95% CI, 0.54-0.88). No difference was found in the effectiveness of ESC across the injury severity categories (slight, severe, and fatal). In line with previous results, this study concludes that ESC reduces the risk for single-vehicle injury accidents by 31% when controlling for various confounding factors related to the driver, the car, and the accident surroundings. Furthermore, it is concluded that it is important to control for human factors (at a minimum age and gender) in analyses where evaluations of this type are performed.

  16. Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning.

    PubMed

    Bright, Aimée K; Feeney, Aidan

    2014-06-01

    We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children's inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey→predator) or diagnostic (predator→prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children's inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessment of driver inexperience with an automobile as a factor which contributes to highway accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1984-12-01

    This study addresses the statistical relationship between driver familiarity with : vehicles and accident frequency. In 1981, 8.9 percent of all drivers in NASS-reported : automobile accidents had less than 150 miles driving experience with the accid...

  18. Causal attributions in Brazilian children's reasoning about health and illness.

    PubMed

    Boruchovitch, E; Mednick, B R

    2000-10-01

    At a time when a great number of diseases can be prevented by changing one's habits and life style, investigations have focused on understanding what adults and children believe to be desirable health practices and uncovering the factors associated with successful adherence to such practices. For these, causal attributions for health and illness were investigated among 96 Brazilian elementary school students. Ninety six subjects, aged 6 to 14, were interviewed individually and their causal attributions were assessed through 14 true-false items (e.g. people stay well [healthy] because they are lucky). The relationship between the children's causal attributions and demographic characteristics were also examined. Overall, the results were consistent with previous researches. "Taking care of oneself" was considered the most important cause of good health. "Viruses and germs" and "lack of self-care" were the most selected causes of illness. Analyses revealed significant relationship between subjects' causal attribution and their age, school grade level, socioeconomic status and gender. The study findings suggest that there may be more cross-cultural similarities than differences in children's causal attributions for health and illness. Finding ways to help individuals engage in appropriate preventive-maintenance health practices without developing an exaggerated notion that the individuals can control their own health and illness is a challenge which remains to be addressed by further research.

  19. Theory-Based Causal Induction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2009-01-01

    Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in scientific inference, statistics, and machine learning. It is also a central part of human learning, and a task that people perform remarkably well given its notorious difficulties. People can learn causal structure in various settings, from diverse forms of data: observations…

  20. Causal Attributions for Success and Failure at University Examinations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, J. G.; Feather, N. T.

    1973-01-01

    Male and female undergraduates rated their ability, amount of preparation, task difficulty, and their initial confidence (expectation) before they began an important examination. Subsequently they attributed causality for the examination outcome by rating the importance of factors involving ability, preparation, task difficulty, and luck as…

  1. Designing Effective Supports for Causal Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; Ionas, Ioan Gelu

    2008-01-01

    Causal reasoning represents one of the most basic and important cognitive processes that underpin all higher-order activities, such as conceptual understanding and problem solving. Hume called causality the "cement of the universe" [Hume (1739/2000). Causal reasoning is required for making predictions, drawing implications and…

  2. The selective power of causality on memory errors.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Jessecae K; Kulkofsky, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    We tested the influence of causal links on the production of memory errors in a misinformation paradigm. Participants studied a set of statements about a person, which were presented as either individual statements or pairs of causally linked statements. Participants were then provided with causally plausible and causally implausible misinformation. We hypothesised that studying information connected with causal links would promote representing information in a more abstract manner. As such, we predicted that causal information would not provide an overall protection against memory errors, but rather would preferentially help in the rejection of misinformation that was causally implausible, given the learned causal links. In two experiments, we measured whether the causal linkage of information would be generally protective against all memory errors or only selectively protective against certain types of memory errors. Causal links helped participants reject implausible memory lures, but did not protect against plausible lures. Our results suggest that causal information may promote an abstract storage of information that helps prevent only specific types of memory errors.

  3. A review of protective factors and causal mechanisms that enhance the mental health of Indigenous Circumpolar youth.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Joanna Petrasek; Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Ross, Nancy A

    2013-12-09

    To review the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. A systematic literature review of peer-reviewed English-language research was conducted to systematically examine the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with elements of a realist review. From 160 records identified in the initial search of 3 databases, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were retained for full review. Data were extracted using a codebook to organize and synthesize relevant information from the articles. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social environment, which interacts with factors at the individual level to enhance resilience. An emphasis on the roles of cultural and land-based activities, history, and language, as well as on the importance of social and family supports, also emerged throughout the literature. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social

  4. A review of protective factors and causal mechanisms that enhance the mental health of Indigenous Circumpolar youth

    PubMed Central

    MacDonald, Joanna Petrasek; Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Ross, Nancy A.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To review the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Study design A systematic literature review of peer-reviewed English-language research was conducted to systematically examine the protective factors and causal mechanisms which promote and enhance Indigenous youth mental health in the Circumpolar North. Methods This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with elements of a realist review. From 160 records identified in the initial search of 3 databases, 15 met the inclusion criteria and were retained for full review. Data were extracted using a codebook to organize and synthesize relevant information from the articles. Results More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively creating and impacting one's social environment, which interacts with factors at the individual level to enhance resilience. An emphasis on the roles of cultural and land-based activities, history, and language, as well as on the importance of social and family supports, also emerged throughout the literature. More than 40 protective factors at the individual, family, and community levels were identified as enhancing Indigenous youth mental health. These included practicing and holding traditional knowledge and skills, the desire to be useful and to contribute meaningfully to one's community, having positive role models, and believing in one's self. Broadly, protective factors at the family and community levels were identified as positively

  5. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2016-10-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  6. Bilirubin as a potential causal factor in type 2 diabetes risk: a Mendelian randomization study

    PubMed Central

    Abbasi, Ali; Deetman, Petronella E.; Corpeleijn, Eva; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Gans, Rijk O.B.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Stolk, Ronald P.; Navis, Gerjan; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z.; Bakker, Stephan J.L.

    2014-01-01

    Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the nature of the relationship remains unknown. We performed Mendelian randomization in a prospective cohort of 3,381 participants free of diabetes at baseline (aged 28-75 years; women, 52.6%). We used rs6742078 located in UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT1A1) locus as instrumental variable (IV) to study a potential causal effect of serum total bilirubin on T2D risk. T2D developed in a total of 210 (6.2%) participants during a median follow-up of 7.8 years. In adjusted analyses, rs6742078, which explained 19.5% of bilirubin variation, was strongly associated with total bilirubin (a 0.68-SD increase in bilirubin levels per T allele; P<1×10−122) and was also associated with T2D risk (OR 0.69 [95%CI, 0.54-0.90]; P=0.006). Per 1-SD increase in log-transformed bilirubin levels, we observed a 25% (OR 0.75 [95%CI, 0.62-0.92]; P=0.004) lower risk of T2D. In Mendelian randomization analysis, the causal risk reduction for T2D was estimated to be 42% (causal ORIVestimation per 1-SD increase in log-transformed bilirubin 0.58 [95%CI, 0.39-0.84]; P=0.005), which was comparable to the observational estimate (Durbin-Wu-Hausman chi-square test Pfor difference =0.19). These novel results provide evidence that elevated bilirubin is causally associated with risk of T2D and support its role as a protective determinant. PMID:25368098

  7. Exploratory Causal Analysis in Bivariate Time Series Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCracken, James M.

    Many scientific disciplines rely on observational data of systems for which it is difficult (or impossible) to implement controlled experiments and data analysis techniques are required for identifying causal information and relationships directly from observational data. This need has lead to the development of many different time series causality approaches and tools including transfer entropy, convergent cross-mapping (CCM), and Granger causality statistics. In this thesis, the existing time series causality method of CCM is extended by introducing a new method called pairwise asymmetric inference (PAI). It is found that CCM may provide counter-intuitive causal inferences for simple dynamics with strong intuitive notions of causality, and the CCM causal inference can be a function of physical parameters that are seemingly unrelated to the existence of a driving relationship in the system. For example, a CCM causal inference might alternate between ''voltage drives current'' and ''current drives voltage'' as the frequency of the voltage signal is changed in a series circuit with a single resistor and inductor. PAI is introduced to address both of these limitations. Many of the current approaches in the times series causality literature are not computationally straightforward to apply, do not follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, depend on assumed models for the time series generating process, or rely on embedding procedures. A new approach, called causal leaning, is introduced in this work to avoid these issues. The leaning is found to provide causal inferences that agree with intuition for both simple systems and more complicated empirical examples, including space weather data sets. The leaning may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. A practicing analyst can explore the literature to find many proposals for identifying drivers and causal connections in times series data

  8. Crew Communication as a Factor in Aviation Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goguen, J. A.; Linde, C.; Murphy, M.

    1984-01-01

    The incidence of air transport accidents caused by problems in crew communication and coordination was investigated. Communication patterns which are most effective in specific situations were determined. Methods to assess the effectiveness of crew communication patterns were developed. The results lead to the development of new methods training crews in effective communication and provide guidelines for the design of aviation procedures and equipment.

  9. Different Kinds of Causality in Event Cognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radvansky, Gabriel A.; Tamplin, Andrea K.; Armendarez, Joseph; Thompson, Alexis N.

    2014-01-01

    Narrative memory is better for information that is more causally connected and occurs at event boundaries, such as a causal break. However, it is unclear whether there are common or distinct influences of causality. For the event boundaries that arise as a result of causal breaks, the events that follow may subsequently become more causally…

  10. Road accidents caused by sleepy drivers: Update of a Norwegian survey.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Ross Owen; Sagberg, Fridulv

    2013-01-01

    The current study tests, updates and expands a model of factors associated with sleepy driving, originally based on a 1997 survey of accident-involved Norwegian drivers (Sagberg, F., 1999. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep. Accident Analysis & Prevention 31, 639-649). The aim is to establish a robust model to inform measures to tackle sleepy driving. The original questions on (i) tiredness-related accidents and (ii) incidents of sleep behind the wheel in the last 12 months were again posed in 2003 and 2008, in independent surveys of Norwegian drivers involved in accidents reported to a large insurance company. According to those drivers at-fault for the accident, tiredness or sleepiness behind the wheel contributed to between 1.9 and 3.9 per cent of all types of accident reported to the insurance company across these years. Accident-involved drivers not at fault for the accident reported a reduction in the incidence of sleep behind the wheel for the preceding year, decreasing from 8.3 per cent in 1997 to 2.9 per cent in 2008. The reasons for this are not clear. According to logistic regression analysis of survey responses, the following factors were robustly associated with road accidents involving sleepy driving: driving off the road; good road conditions; longer distance driven since the start of the trip; and fewer years with a driving licence. The following factors are consistently associated with reports of sleep behind the wheel, whether or not it leads to an accident: being male; driving further per year; being younger; and having sleep-related health problems. Taken together these findings suggest that young, inexperienced male drivers who drive long distances may be a suitable target for road safety campaigns aimed at tackling sleepy driving. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Causal essentialism in kinds.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Woo-kyoung; Taylor, Eric G; Kato, Daniel; Marsh, Jessecae K; Bloom, Paul

    2013-06-01

    The current study examines causal essentialism, derived from psychological essentialism of concepts. We examine whether people believe that members of a category share some underlying essence that is both necessary and sufficient for category membership and that also causes surface features. The main claim is that causal essentialism is restricted to categories that correspond to our intuitive notions of existing kinds and hence is more attenuated for categories that are based on arbitrary criteria. Experiments 1 and 3 found that people overtly endorse causal essences in nonarbitrary kinds but are less likely to do so for arbitrary categories. Experiments 2 and 4 found that people were more willing to generalize a member's known causal relations (or lack thereof) when dealing with a kind than when dealing with an arbitrary category. These differences between kinds and arbitrary categories were found across various domains-not only for categories of living things, but also for artefacts. These findings have certain real-world implications, including how people make sense of mental disorders that are treated as real kinds.

  12. Defining a common set of indicators to monitor road accidents in the European Union.

    PubMed

    Farchi, Sara; Molino, Nunzio; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Borgia, Piero; Krzyzanowski, Michael; Dalbokova, Dafina; Kim, Rokho

    2006-07-11

    currently road accidents are mostly monitored through mortality and injury rates. This paper reports the methodology and the results of a project set forth by the European Union (EU) and coordinated by the WHO aimed at identifying and evaluating a core set of indicators to monitor the causal chain of road accident health effects. The project is part of the ECOEHIS (Development of Environment and Health Indicators for European Union Countries). a group of experts (WG), identified 14 indicators after a review of the information collected at the EU level, each of them representing a specific aspect of the DPSEEA (Driving, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action) model applied and adapted to the road accidents. Each indicator was scored according to a list of 16 criteria chosen by the WG. Those found to have a high score were analysed to determine if they were compatible with EU legislation and then tested in the feasibility study. 11 of the 14 indicators found to be relevant and compatible with the criteria of selection were proposed for the feasibility study. Mortality, injury, road accident rate, age of vehicle fleet, and distance travelled are the indicators recommended for immediate implementation. after overcoming the limitations that emerged (absence of a common definition of death by road accident and injury severity, underestimation of injuries, differences in information quality) this core set of indicators will allow Member States to carry out effective internal/external comparisons over time.

  13. Defining a common set of indicators to monitor road accidents in the European Union

    PubMed Central

    Farchi, Sara; Molino, Nunzio; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Borgia, Piero; Krzyzanowski, Michael; Dalbokova, Dafina; Kim, Rokho

    2006-01-01

    Background currently road accidents are mostly monitored through mortality and injury rates. This paper reports the methodology and the results of a project set forth by the European Union (EU) and coordinated by the WHO aimed at identifying and evaluating a core set of indicators to monitor the causal chain of road accident health effects. The project is part of the ECOEHIS (Development of Environment and Health Indicators for European Union Countries). Methods a group of experts (WG), identified 14 indicators after a review of the information collected at the EU level, each of them representing a specific aspect of the DPSEEA (Driving, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action) model applied and adapted to the road accidents. Each indicator was scored according to a list of 16 criteria chosen by the WG. Those found to have a high score were analysed to determine if they were compatible with EU legislation and then tested in the feasibility study. Results 11 of the 14 indicators found to be relevant and compatible with the criteria of selection were proposed for the feasibility study. Mortality, injury, road accident rate, age of vehicle fleet, and distance travelled are the indicators recommended for immediate implementation. Conclusion after overcoming the limitations that emerged (absence of a common definition of death by road accident and injury severity, underestimation of injuries, differences in information quality) this core set of indicators will allow Member States to carry out effective internal/external comparisons over time. PMID:16834780

  14. Amodal causal capture in the tunnel effect.

    PubMed

    Bae, Gi Yeul; Flombaum, Jonathan I

    2011-01-01

    In addition to identifying individual objects in the world, the visual system must also characterize the relationships between objects, for instance when objects occlude one another or cause one another to move. Here we explored the relationship between perceived causality and occlusion. Can one perceive causality in an occluded location? In several experiments, observers judged whether a centrally presented event involved a single object passing behind an occluder, or one object causally launching another (out of view and behind the occluder). With no additional context, the centrally presented event was typically judged as a non-causal pass, even when the occluding and disoccluding objects were different colors--an illusion known as the 'tunnel effect' that results from spatiotemporal continuity. However, when a synchronized context event involved an unambiguous causal launch, participants perceived a causal launch behind the occluder. This percept of an occluded causal interaction could also be driven by grouping and synchrony cues in the absence of any explicitly causal interaction. These results reinforce the hypothesis that causality is an aspect of perception. It is among the interpretations of the world that are independently available to vision when resolving ambiguity, and that the visual system can 'fill in' amodally.

  15. Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors.

    PubMed

    Tropf, Felix C; Mandemakers, Jornt J

    2017-02-01

    A large body of literature has demonstrated a positive relationship between education and age at first birth. However, this relationship may be partly spurious because of family background factors that cannot be controlled for in most research designs. We investigate the extent to which education is causally related to later age at first birth in a large sample of female twins from the United Kingdom (N = 2,752). We present novel estimates using within-identical twin and biometric models. Our findings show that one year of additional schooling is associated with about one-half year later age at first birth in ordinary least squares (OLS) models. This estimate reduced to only a 1.5-month later age at first birth for the within-identical twin model controlling for all shared family background factors (genetic and family environmental). Biometric analyses reveal that it is mainly influences of the family environment-not genetic factors-that cause spurious associations between education and age at first birth. Last, using data from the Office for National Statistics, we demonstrate that only 1.9 months of the 2.74 years of fertility postponement for birth cohorts 1944-1967 could be attributed to educational expansion based on these estimates. We conclude that the rise in educational attainment alone cannot explain differences in fertility timing between cohorts.

  16. Causality in medicine: the case of tumours and viruses.

    PubMed Central

    Vonka, V

    2000-01-01

    Clarification of the aetiology of chronic human diseases such as atherosclerosis or cancer is one of the dominant topics in contemporary medical research. It is believed that identification of the causal factors will enable more efficient prevention and diagnosis of these diseases and, in some instances, also permit more effective therapy. The task is difficult because of the multistep and multifactorial origin of these diseases. A special case in contemporary aetiological studies is definition of the role of viruses in the pathogenesis of human cancer. Virus-associated cancer develops only in a small minority of infected subjects, which implies that, if the virus does play a role in the pathogenesis of the malignancy, other factors must also be involved. In this paper the author attempts to review the present methodological approaches to aetiological studies of chronic diseases, discusses the role of criteria for identifying causal relationships and proposes guidelines that might help to determine the role of viruses in human cancer. PMID:11205344

  17. Expectations and Interpretations during Causal Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luhmann, Christian C.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

    2011-01-01

    In existing models of causal induction, 4 types of covariation information (i.e., presence/absence of an event followed by presence/absence of another event) always exert identical influences on causal strength judgments (e.g., joint presence of events always suggests a generative causal relationship). In contrast, we suggest that, due to…

  18. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  19. [Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

    PubMed

    Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

    2014-02-01

    Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

  20. The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

    PubMed

    Caird, J K; Kline, T J

    2004-12-01

    Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

  1. Aircraft Loss of Control Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, Steven R.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control has become the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding large numbers of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, NASA's Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. For each causal factor that was linked to loss of control, the team solicited ideas about what solutions are required and future research efforts that could potentially help avoid their occurrence or mitigate their consequences when they occurred in flight.

  2. Applying crash data to injury claims - an investigation of determinant factors in severe motor vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Shannon, Darren; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Eggert, Julian

    2018-04-01

    An extensive number of research studies have attempted to capture the factors that influence the severity of vehicle impacts. The high number of risks facing all traffic participants has led to a gradual increase in sophisticated data collection schemes linking crash characteristics to subsequent severity measures. This study serves as a departure from previous research by relating injuries suffered in road traffic accidents to expected trauma compensation payouts and deriving a quantitative cost function. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Crash Injury Research (CIREN) database for the years 2005-2014 is combined with the Book of Quantum, an Irish governmental document that offers guidelines on the appropriate compensation to be awarded for injuries sustained in accidents. A multiple linear regression is carried out to identify the crash factors that significantly influence expected compensation costs and compared to ordered and multinomial logit models. The model offers encouraging results given the inherent variation expected in vehicular incidents and the subjectivity influencing compensation payout judgments, attaining an adjusted-R 2 fit of 20.6% when uninfluential factors are removed. It is found that relative speed at time of impact and dark conditions increase the expected costs, while rear-end incidents, incident sustained in van-based trucks and incidents sustained while turning result in lower expected compensations. The number of airbags available in the vehicle is also a significant factor. The scalar-outcome approach used in this research offers an alternative methodology to the discrete-outcome models that dominate traffic safety analyses. The results also raise queries on the future development of claims reserving (capital allocations earmarked for future expected claims payments) as advanced driver assistant systems (ADASs) seek to eradicate the most frequent types of crash factors upon which insurance

  3. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  4. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  5. Industrial accidents are related to relative body weight: the Israeli CORDIS study.

    PubMed Central

    Froom, P; Melamed, S; Kristal-Boneh, E; Gofer, D; Ribak, J

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The accident rate might be influenced by intrinsic characteristics of the workers, by risks inherent in the work environment, or a combination of these factors. As increased weight may be associated with sleep disturbances and fatigue, a high body mass index (BMI) might be an independent risk factor for accidents in industrial workers. METHODS: 3801 men were examined and followed up for two years for the occurrence of accidents. The objective environmental conditions were recorded and translated into a single score of ergonomic stress levels. Height and weight were recorded, as were possible confounding factors including measures of fatigue, type A personality, total night time sleep, job satisfaction, somatic complaints, smoking, and education levels. RESULTS: Both BMI and ergonomic stress levels independently predicted involvement in accidents (two or more) with those in the highest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with high ergonomic stress levels having a 4-6 times increased risk of accidents compared with those in the lowest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with low ergonomic stress levels (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.4-9.0, P < 0.001). Although increasing somatic complaints and a low educational level also were predictors of accidents, they did not mediate the effect of the BMI on the accident rate. Increasing age, less smoking, and decreased sleep hours were significantly associated with an increased BMI, but the association of BMI and involvement in accidents also could not be explained by those factors or the other confounders. CONCLUSIONS: BMI independently influences the accident rate. Further studies warranted to confirm these findings and to explore mechanisms supporting biological plausibility. PMID:9004929

  6. Kant on causal laws and powers.

    PubMed

    Henschen, Tobias

    2014-12-01

    The aim of the paper is threefold. Its first aim is to defend Eric Watkins's claim that for Kant, a cause is not an event but a causal power: a power that is borne by a substance, and that, when active, brings about its effect, i.e. a change of the states of another substance, by generating a continuous flow of intermediate states of that substance. The second aim of the paper is to argue against Watkins that the Kantian concept of causal power is not the pre-critical concept of real ground but the category of causality, and that Kant holds with Hume that causal laws cannot be inferred non-inductively (that he accordingly has no intention to show in the Second analogy or elsewhere that events fall under causal laws). The third aim of the paper is to compare the Kantian position on causality with central tenets of contemporary powers ontology: it argues that unlike the variants endorsed by contemporary powers theorists, the Kantian variants of these tenets are resistant to objections that neo-Humeans raise to these tenets.

  7. Causal Relationships between the Psychological Acceptance Process of Athletic Injury and Athletic Rehabilitation Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Tatsumi, Tomonori; Takenouchi, Takashi

    2014-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to examine the causal relationships between the psychological acceptance process of athletic injury and athletic-rehabilitation behavior. [Subjects] One hundred forty-four athletes who had injury experiences participated in this study, and 133 (mean age = 20.21 years, SD = 1.07; mean weeks without playing sports = 7.97 weeks, SD = 11.26) of them provided valid questionnaire responses which were subjected to analysis. [Methods] The subjects were asked to answer our originally designed questionnaire, the Psychosocial Recovery Factor Scale (PSRF-S), and two other pre-existing scales, the Athletic Injury Psychological Acceptance Scale and the Athletic-Rehabilitation Dedication Scale. [Results] The results of factor analysis indicate “emotional stability”, “social competence in the team”, “temporal perspective”, and “communication with the teammates” are factors of the PSRF-S. Lastly, the causal model in which psychosocial recovery factors are mediated by psychological acceptance of athletic injury, and influence on rehabilitation behaviors, was examined using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of SEM indicate that the factors of emotional stability and temporal perspective are mediated by the psychological acceptance of the injury, which positively influences athletic-rehabilitation dedication. [Conclusion] The causal model was confirmed to be valid. PMID:25202190

  8. Systematic strategies for the third industrial accident prevention plan in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kang, Young-sig; Yang, Sung-hwan; Kim, Tae-gu; Kim, Day-sung

    2012-01-01

    To minimize industrial accidents, it's critical to evaluate a firm's priorities for prevention factors and strategies since such evaluation provides decisive information for preventing industrial accidents and maintaining safety management. Therefore, this paper proposes the evaluation of priorities through statistical testing of prevention factors with a cause analysis in a cause and effect model. A priority matrix criterion is proposed to apply the ranking and for the objectivity of questionnaire results. This paper used regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) to analyze trends of accident data that will lead to an accurate prediction. This paper standardized the questionnaire results of workers and managers in manufacturing and construction companies with less than 300 employees, located in the central Korean metropolitan areas where fatal accidents have occurred. Finally, a strategy was provided to construct safety management for the third industrial accident prevention plan and a forecasting method for occupational accident rates and fatality rates for occupational accidents per 10,000 people.

  9. Reduction factors for wooden houses due to external γ-radiation based on in situ measurements after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Yoshida-Ohuchi, Hiroko; Hosoda, Masahiro; Kanagami, Takashi; Uegaki, Masaki; Tashima, Hideo

    2014-12-18

    For estimation of residents' exposure dose after a nuclear accident, the reduction factor, which is the ratio of the indoor dose to the outdoor dose is essential, as most individuals spend a large portion of their time indoors. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, we evaluated the median reduction factor with an interquartile range of 0.43 (0.34-0.53) based on 522 survey results for 69 detached wooden houses in two evacuation zones, Iitate village and Odaka district. The results indicated no statistically significant difference in the median reduction factor to the representative value of 0.4 given in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-TECDOC-225 and 1162. However, with regard to the representative range of the reduction factor, we recommend the wider range of 0.2 to 0.7 or at least 0.2 to 0.6, which covered 87.7% and 80.7% of the data, respectively, rather than 0.2 to 0.5 given in the IAEA document, which covered only 66.5% of the data. We found that the location of the room within the house and area topography, and the use of cement roof tiles had the greatest influence on the reduction factor.

  10. Fusobacterium and colorectal cancer: causal factor or passenger? Results from a large colorectal cancer screening study.

    PubMed

    Amitay, Efrat L; Werner, Simone; Vital, Marius; Pieper, Dietmar H; Höfler, Daniela; Gierse, Indra-Jasmin; Butt, Julia; Balavarca, Yesilda; Cuk, Katarina; Brenner, Hermann

    2017-08-01

    Colorectal cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide in both men and women. The gut microbiome is increasingly recognized as having an important role in human health and disease. Fusobacterium has been identified in former studies as a leading gut bacterium associated with colorectal cancer, but it is still not clear if it plays an oncogenic role. In the current study, fecal samples were collected prior to bowel preparation from participants of screening colonoscopy in the German BliTz study. Using 16S rRNA gene analysis, we examined the presence and relative abundance of Fusobacterium in fecal samples from 500 participants, including 46, 113, 110 and 231 individuals with colorectal cancer, advanced adenomas, non-advanced adenomas and without any neoplasms, respectively. We found that the abundance of Fusobacterium in feces was strongly associated with the presence of colorectal cancer (P-value < 0.0001). This was confirmed by PCR at the species level for Fusobacterium nucleatum. However, no association was seen with the presence of advanced adenomas (P-value = 0.80) or non-advanced adenomas (P-value = 0.80), nor were there any associations observed with dietary or lifestyle habits. Although a causal role cannot be ruled out, our observations, based on fecal microbiome, support the hypothesis that Fusobacterium is a passenger that multiplies in the more favorable conditions caused by the malignant tumor rather than a causal factor in colorectal cancer development. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. [A study of relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in school-aged children].

    PubMed

    Sakurai, S

    1989-12-01

    This study was conducted to investigate the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in Japanese school-aged children. In Study 1, the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale for children developed by Kazdin, French, Unis, Esveldt-Dawsan, and Sherick (1983) was constructed. Seventeen original items were translated into Japanese and they were administrated to 405 fifth- and sixth-graders. All of the items could be included to the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale. The reliability and validity was examined. In Study 2, the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in children were investigated. The causal attribution questionnaire developed by Higuchi, Kambare, and Otsuka (1983) and the hopelessness scale developed by Study 1 were administered to 188 sixth-graders. Children with high scores in hopelessness scale significantly attributed negative events to much more effort factor than children with low scores. It supports neither the reformulated learned helplessness model nor the causal attribution theory of achievement motivation. It was explained mainly from points of self-serving attribution, cultural difference, and social desirability. Some questions were discussed for developing studies on depression and causal attribution in Japan.

  12. A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees.

    PubMed

    Kaewanuchit, Chonticha; Muntaner, Carles; Isha, Nizam

    2015-07-01

    Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level.

  13. A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees

    PubMed Central

    KAEWANUCHIT, Chonticha; MUNTANER, Carles; ISHA, Nizam

    2015-01-01

    Background: Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. Methods: This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Results: Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Conclusion: Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level. PMID:26576371

  14. Causality and Causal Inference in Social Work: Quantitative and Qualitative Perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Palinkas, Lawrence A.

    2015-01-01

    Achieving the goals of social work requires matching a specific solution to a specific problem. Understanding why the problem exists and why the solution should work requires a consideration of cause and effect. However, it is unclear whether it is desirable for social workers to identify cause and effect, whether it is possible for social workers to identify cause and effect, and, if so, what is the best means for doing so. These questions are central to determining the possibility of developing a science of social work and how we go about doing it. This article has four aims: (1) provide an overview of the nature of causality; (2) examine how causality is treated in social work research and practice; (3) highlight the role of quantitative and qualitative methods in the search for causality; and (4) demonstrate how both methods can be employed to support a “science” of social work. PMID:25821393

  15. [Frequently accidents and injury at school].

    PubMed

    Gautier Vargas, María; Martínez González, Vanesa

    2011-01-01

    During the time we have been in a private company that provide schools with medical care, we were surprised by the frequent and constant phone calls received to ask for our services. This fact made us take the decision to carry out a survey to find out the accidents and the most frequent injuries. According to the retrospective study we realized throughout two different academic courses in several schools in Cantabria, the 3.23% of the students have any accidents or injuries. We found out children between 11 and 15 have the highest accident rate, being 10.8 % higher when boys (rather than girls) are involved. The most common injuries are contusions 42.85%, followed by sprains 23.45%, being blows the reason in 42% of the cases, and surprisingly acts of aggression in 1%. It was also unexpected to learn that gyms, where children are taught in physical education, have the highest percent on accident rate. All these inquiries lead us to think that age, play and sports are determinant factors in the accidents happened in the school area.

  16. Stressful life events and occupational accidents.

    PubMed

    Cordeiro, Ricardo; Dias, Adriano

    2005-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the association between stressful life events and occupational accidents. This was a population-based case-control study, carried out in the city of Botucatu, in southeast Brazil. The cases consisted of 108 workers who had recently experienced occupational accidents. Each case was matched with three controls. The cases and controls answered a questionnaire about recent exposure to stressful life events. Reporting of "environmental problems", "being a victim of assault", "not having enough food at home" and "nonoccupational fatigue" were found to be risk factors for work-related accidents with estimated incidence rate ratios of 1.4 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-1.7], 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.7), 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.6), and 1.4 (95% CI 1.2-1.7) respectively. The findings of the study suggested that nonwork variables contribute to occupational accidents, thus broadening the understanding of these phenomena, which can support new approaches to the prevention of occupational accidents.

  17. Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn.

    PubMed

    Manner, Hans; Wünsch-Ziegler, Laura

    2013-08-01

    We study the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia using data for the years 2009 until 2011. We use a multinomial logit model to identify statistically relevant factors explaining the severity of the most severe injury, which is classified into the four classes fatal, severe injury, light injury and property damage. Furthermore, to account for unobserved heterogeneity we use a random parameter model. We study the effect of a number of factors including traffic information, road conditions, type of accidents, speed limits, presence of intelligent traffic control systems, age and gender of the driver and location of the accident. Our findings are in line with studies in different settings and indicate that accidents during daylight and at interchanges or construction sites are less severe in general. Accidents caused by the collision with roadside objects, involving pedestrians and motorcycles, or caused by bad sight conditions tend to be more severe. We discuss the measures of the 2011 German traffic safety programm in the light of our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [The role of "competent physician" for prevention of accidents at work].

    PubMed

    Ramistella, E; Bergamaschi, A; Mosconi, G; Rossi, O; Sallese, D

    2008-01-01

    Using at best the professional and legal tools at his/her disposal, the "competent physician" can have a relevant role in reducing accidents in the workplace. In assessing the worker's suitability to specific tasks, the competent physician checks the presence of pathologies or functional impairments of organs or apparatuses that can be an additional risk for the occurrence of accidents at work. The activity aimed to preventing accidents at work translates also in taking part in the planning and implementation of information activities and workers' training within the company. The various risk factors inherent in the workplace and so-called "human factors" can interact in a negative way to the point of becoming a cause of accidents. The human variables of accident risk at the industrial, occupational and even individual level, may be numerous. In this paper we shall review these important aspects and attempt to clarify the role that can be played by the competent physician in the prevention of accidents at work.

  19. CADDIS Volume 1. Stressor Identification: About Causal Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    An introduction to the history of our approach to causal assessment, A chronology of causal history and philosophy, An introduction to causal history and philosophy, References for the Causal Assessment Background section of Stressor Identification

  20. The Effects of Injury and Accidents on Self-rated Depression in Male Municipal Firefighters

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Yun Kyung

    2011-01-01

    Objectives The present study aims to determine the causal relationship between self-rated depression and experiences of injury and accidents in municipal firefighters. Methods A panel survey of 186 municipal firefighters measured with depressive symptoms according to the Beck's depression index (BDI) was conducted. The effects of job-related injuries and accidents were evaluated using self-administered questionnaires that were taken once in a 12-month period from 2005 to 2006. Firefighters were classified into the Depression Group or Control Group based on follow-up BDI results with a cutoff level that was set to having "over mild depression." Results The depression Group was comprised of 17 (9.1%) workers, including 9 firefighters who met had sufficient BDI scores twice in the 2-year test period and newly sufficient BDI scores in the follow-up test. A significantly higher number of subjects in the Depression Group experienced injuries and accidents in the 2-year test period as compared to the Control Group (15.4% vs. 1.5%, p=0.04). Firefighters who experienced injuries and accidents in the 2-year test period had a 7.4 times higher risk of being in the Depression Group than those who had not. As compared to accidents, near-miss accidents revealed stronger risks related to being classified as in the Depression group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 4.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15-18.18 vs. Adjusted OR = 4.22, 95% CI = 1.08-16.58). Conclusion The above results suggest that we should establish an effective program to promote mental health for groups at high risk for self-rated depression, including persons who have experienced consecutive injuries and accidents as well as near-miss injuries. PMID:22953198

  1. MIIC online: a web server to reconstruct causal or non-causal networks from non-perturbative data.

    PubMed

    Sella, Nadir; Verny, Louis; Uguzzoni, Guido; Affeldt, Séverine; Isambert, Hervé

    2018-07-01

    We present a web server running the MIIC algorithm, a network learning method combining constraint-based and information-theoretic frameworks to reconstruct causal, non-causal or mixed networks from non-perturbative data, without the need for an a priori choice on the class of reconstructed network. Starting from a fully connected network, the algorithm first removes dispensable edges by iteratively subtracting the most significant information contributions from indirect paths between each pair of variables. The remaining edges are then filtered based on their confidence assessment or oriented based on the signature of causality in observational data. MIIC online server can be used for a broad range of biological data, including possible unobserved (latent) variables, from single-cell gene expression data to protein sequence evolution and outperforms or matches state-of-the-art methods for either causal or non-causal network reconstruction. MIIC online can be freely accessed at https://miic.curie.fr. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  2. What Can Causal Networks Tell Us about Metabolic Pathways?

    PubMed Central

    Blair, Rachael Hageman; Kliebenstein, Daniel J.; Churchill, Gary A.

    2012-01-01

    Graphical models describe the linear correlation structure of data and have been used to establish causal relationships among phenotypes in genetic mapping populations. Data are typically collected at a single point in time. Biological processes on the other hand are often non-linear and display time varying dynamics. The extent to which graphical models can recapitulate the architecture of an underlying biological processes is not well understood. We consider metabolic networks with known stoichiometry to address the fundamental question: “What can causal networks tell us about metabolic pathways?”. Using data from an Arabidopsis BaySha population and simulated data from dynamic models of pathway motifs, we assess our ability to reconstruct metabolic pathways using graphical models. Our results highlight the necessity of non-genetic residual biological variation for reliable inference. Recovery of the ordering within a pathway is possible, but should not be expected. Causal inference is sensitive to subtle patterns in the correlation structure that may be driven by a variety of factors, which may not emphasize the substrate-product relationship. We illustrate the effects of metabolic pathway architecture, epistasis and stochastic variation on correlation structure and graphical model-derived networks. We conclude that graphical models should be interpreted cautiously, especially if the implied causal relationships are to be used in the design of intervention strategies. PMID:22496633

  3. Therapists' causal attributions of clients' problems and selection of intervention strategies.

    PubMed

    Royce, W S; Muehlke, C V

    1991-04-01

    Therapists' choices of intervention strategies are influenced by many factors, including judgments about the bases of clients' problems. To assess the relationships between such causal attributions and the selection of intervention strategies, 196 counselors, psychologists, and social workers responded to the written transcript of a client's interview by answering two questionnaires, a 1982 scale (Causal Dimension Scale by Russell) which measured causal attribution of the client's problem, and another which measured preference for emotional, rational, and active intervention strategies in dealing with the client, based on the 1979 E-R-A taxonomy of Frey and Raming. A significant relationship was found between the two sets of variables, with internal attributions linked to rational intervention strategies and stable attributions linked to active strategies. The results support Halleck's 1978 hypothesis that theories of psychotherapy tie interventions to etiological considerations.

  4. Universal behavior of generalized causal set d’Alembertians in curved spacetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belenchia, Alessio

    2016-07-01

    Causal set non-local wave operators allow both for the definition of an action for causal set theory and the study of deviations from local physics that may have interesting phenomenological consequences. It was previously shown that, in all dimensions, the (unique) minimal discrete operators give averaged continuum non-local operators that reduce to \\square -R/2 in the local limit. Recently, dropping the constraint of minimality, it was shown that there exist an infinite number of discrete operators satisfying basic physical requirements and with the right local limit in flat spacetime. In this work, we consider this entire class of generalized causal set d’Alembertins in curved spacetimes and extend to them the result about the universality of the -R/2 factor. Finally, we comment on the relation of this result to the Einstein equivalence principle.

  5. Poor sleep as a potential causal factor in aggression and violence.

    PubMed

    Kamphuis, Jeanine; Meerlo, Peter; Koolhaas, Jaap M; Lancel, Marike

    2012-04-01

    Clinical observations suggest that sleep problems may be a causal factor in the development of reactive aggression and violence. In this review we give an overview of existing literature on the relation between poor sleep and aggression, irritability, and hostility. Correlational studies are supporting such a relationship. Although limited in number, some studies suggest that treatment of sleep disturbances reduces aggressiveness and problematic behavior. In line with this is the finding that sleep deprivation actually increases aggressive behavior in animals and angriness, short-temperedness, and the outward expression of aggressive impulses in humans. In most people poor sleep will not evoke actual physical aggression, but certain individuals, such as forensic psychiatric patients, may be particularly vulnerable to the emotional dysregulating effects of sleep disturbances. The relation between sleep problems and aggression may be mediated by the negative effect of sleep loss on prefrontal cortical functioning. This most likely contributes to loss of control over emotions, including loss of the regulation of aggressive impulses to context-appropriate behavior. Other potential contributing mechanisms connecting sleep problems to aggression and violence are most likely found within the central serotonergic and the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis. Individual variation within these neurobiological systems may be responsible for amplified aggressive responses induced by sleep loss in certain individuals. It is of great importance to identify the individuals at risk, since recognition and adequate treatment of their sleep problems may reduce aggressive and violent incidents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    PubMed

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  7. Laterality, spatial abilities, and accident proneness.

    PubMed

    Voyer, Susan D; Voyer, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Although handedness as a measure of cerebral specialization has been linked to accident proneness, more direct measures of laterality are rarely considered. The present study aimed to fill that gap in the existing research. In addition, individual difference factors in accident proneness were further examined with the inclusion of mental rotation and navigation abilities measures. One hundred and forty participants were asked to complete the Mental Rotations Test, the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction scale, the Greyscales task, the Fused Dichotic Word Test, the Waterloo Handedness Questionnaire, and a grip strength task before answering questions related to number of accidents in five areas. Results indicated that handedness scores, absolute visual laterality score, absolute response time on the auditory laterality index, and navigation ability were significant predictors of the total number of accidents. Results are discussed with respect to cerebral hemispheric specialization and risk-taking attitudes and behavior.

  8. Causal explanations for class inequality in health--an empirical analysis.

    PubMed

    Lundberg, O

    1991-01-01

    One of the most important issues for research on social class inequalities in health are the causes behind such differences. So far, the debate on class inequalities in health has mainly been centred around hypotheses on artefactual and selectional processes. Although most contributors to this branch of research have argued in favour of causal explanations, these have gained very little systematic scrutiny. In this article, several possible causal factors are singled out for empirical testing. The effect of these factors on class differences in physical and mental illness is studied by means of logit regressions. On the basis of these analyses, it is shown that physical working conditions are the prime source of class inequality in physical illness, although economic hardship during upbringing and health related behaviours also contribute. For class inequality in mental illness these three factors plus weak social network are important. In sum, a large part of the class differences in physical as well as mental illness can be understood as a result of systematic differences between classes in living conditions, primarily differences in working conditions.

  9. A causal viscous cosmology without singularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laciana, Carlos E.

    2017-05-01

    An isotropic and homogeneous cosmological model with a source of dark energy is studied. That source is simulated with a viscous relativistic fluid with minimal causal correction. In this model the restrictions on the parameters coming from the following conditions are analized: (a) energy density without singularities along time, (b) scale factor increasing with time, (c) universe accelerated at present time, (d) state equation for dark energy with " w" bounded and close to -1. It is found that those conditions are satisfied for the following two cases. (i) When the transport coefficient (τ _{Π}), associated to the causal correction, is negative, with the additional restriction ζ | τ _{Π}| >2/3, where ζ is the relativistic bulk viscosity coefficient. The state equation is in the "phantom" energy sector. (ii) For τ _{Π} positive, in the "k-essence" sector. It is performed an exact calculation for the case where the equation of state is constant, finding that option (ii) is favored in relation to (i), because in (ii) the entropy is always increasing, while this does no happen in (i).

  10. Interactions of information transfer along separable causal paths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Peishi; Kumar, Praveen

    2018-04-01

    Complex systems arise as a result of interdependences between multiple variables, whose causal interactions can be visualized in a time-series graph. Transfer entropy and information partitioning approaches have been used to characterize such dependences. However, these approaches capture net information transfer occurring through a multitude of pathways involved in the interaction and as a result mask our ability to discern the causal interaction within a subgraph of interest through specific pathways. We build on recent developments of momentary information transfer along causal paths proposed by Runge [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062829 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062829] to develop a framework for quantifying information partitioning along separable causal paths. Momentary information transfer along causal paths captures the amount of information transfer between any two variables lagged at two specific points in time. Our approach expands this concept to characterize the causal interaction in terms of synergistic, unique, and redundant information transfer through separable causal paths. Through a graphical model, we analyze the impact of the separable and nonseparable causal paths and the causality structure embedded in the graph as well as the noise effect on information partitioning by using synthetic data generated from two coupled logistic equation models. Our approach can provide a valuable reference for an autonomous information partitioning along separable causal paths which form a causal subgraph influencing a target.

  11. Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

    PubMed

    Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

    2016-05-01

    The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. The work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust.

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, R H; Cooper, S; Hayes, H R

    1988-01-01

    In 1983 an article was published in this Journal describing the work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Since that time many developments have taken place in the field of child accident prevention. There has been an increased recognition of the role of accidents and injuries in child health and the importance of accident prevention at an international, national, and local level. This has, in part, been a result of work undertaken by the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Much remains to be done, however, and doctors and other health workers involved with children must recognise the part that they can play in reducing this epidemic. Mortality and morbidity from accidents is the largest single problem in the health of children after the first year of life. The aim of this article is to stimulate interest in the problem of accidents in childhood especially among community paediatricians and clinical medical officers. Hospital doctors and general practitioners also have a particular part to play in drawing the attention of appropriate authorities to factors which have led to accidents that may have been preventable (see Annotation in this issue). PMID:3355217

  13. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    PubMed

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  14. Generalized Causal Quantum Theories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parmeggiani, Claudio

    2007-12-01

    We shall show that is always possible to construct causal Quantum Theories fully equivalent (as predictive tools) to acausal, standard Quantum Theory, relativistic or not relativistic; we re-obtain, as a particular case, the usual Quantum Bohmian Theory. Then we consider the measurement process, in causal theories, and we conclude that the state of affairs is not really improved, with respect to standard theories.

  15. "It Can Bust at Any Seam": Lessons for Deep Space Flight from Mawson's 1911-1914 Australasian Antarctic Expedition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Phillip Scott

    2010-09-01

    Lessons useful for manned space flight can be gained by looking at exploring expeditions of the past. An aviation-accident style investigation was conducted on two fatalities that occurred on an Antarctic expedition in 1912-13. The causal factors of the accidents were determined; and lessons for future missions beyond LEO gleaned from both the causal factors and from looking at the expedition as a whole. The investigation highlighted, among other things, that probabilistic hazards can eventually take a life and that factors of terrain can and will damage equipment and kill men; that consumables should be segregated such that one mishap does not reduce margins to below those needed for survival, and that manned missions need to be able to jury-rig equipment in the field.

  16. Causal inference in economics and marketing

    PubMed Central

    Varian, Hal R.

    2016-01-01

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144

  17. Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, X. S.

    2017-12-01

    Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

  18. Causal learning with local computations.

    PubMed

    Fernbach, Philip M; Sloman, Steven A

    2009-05-01

    The authors proposed and tested a psychological theory of causal structure learning based on local computations. Local computations simplify complex learning problems via cues available on individual trials to update a single causal structure hypothesis. Structural inferences from local computations make minimal demands on memory, require relatively small amounts of data, and need not respect normative prescriptions as inferences that are principled locally may violate those principles when combined. Over a series of 3 experiments, the authors found (a) systematic inferences from small amounts of data; (b) systematic inference of extraneous causal links; (c) influence of data presentation order on inferences; and (d) error reduction through pretraining. Without pretraining, a model based on local computations fitted data better than a Bayesian structural inference model. The data suggest that local computations serve as a heuristic for learning causal structure. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Castrigiano, Domenico P. L., E-mail: castrig@ma.tum.de; Leiseifer, Andreas D., E-mail: andreas.leiseifer@tum.de

    2015-07-15

    Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a meremore » consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac’s localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.« less

  20. Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castrigiano, Domenico P. L.; Leiseifer, Andreas D.

    2015-07-01

    Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac's localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

  1. Causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izumi, Keisuke

    2014-08-01

    We analyze causal structures in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. It is known that Gauss-Bonnet gravity potentially has superluminal propagation of gravitons due to its noncanonical kinetic terms. In a theory with superluminal modes, an analysis of causality based on null curves makes no sense, and thus, we need to analyze them in a different way. In this paper, using the method of the characteristics, we analyze the causal structure in Gauss-Bonnet gravity. We have the result that, on a Killing horizon, gravitons can propagate in the null direction tangent to the Killing horizon. Therefore, a Killing horizon can be a causal edge as in the case of general relativity; i.e. a Killing horizon is the "event horizon" in the sense of causality. We also analyze causal structures on nonstationary solutions with (D-2)-dimensional maximal symmetry, including spherically symmetric and flat spaces. If the geometrical null energy condition, RABNANB≥0 for any null vector NA, is satisfied, the radial velocity of gravitons must be less than or equal to that of light. However, if the geometrical null energy condition is violated, gravitons can propagate faster than light. Hence, on an evaporating black hole where the geometrical null energy condition is expected not to hold, classical gravitons can escape from the "black hole" defined with null curves. That is, the causal structures become nontrivial. It may be one of the possible solutions for the information loss paradox of evaporating black holes.

  2. Routes to failure: analysis of 41 civil aviation accidents from the Republic of China using the human factors analysis and classification system.

    PubMed

    Li, Wen-Chin; Harris, Don; Yu, Chung-San

    2008-03-01

    The human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) is based upon Reason's organizational model of human error. HFACS was developed as an analytical framework for the investigation of the role of human error in aviation accidents, however, there is little empirical work formally describing the relationship between the components in the model. This research analyses 41 civil aviation accidents occurring to aircraft registered in the Republic of China (ROC) between 1999 and 2006 using the HFACS framework. The results show statistically significant relationships between errors at the operational level and organizational inadequacies at both the immediately adjacent level (preconditions for unsafe acts) and higher levels in the organization (unsafe supervision and organizational influences). The pattern of the 'routes to failure' observed in the data from this analysis of civil aircraft accidents show great similarities to that observed in the analysis of military accidents. This research lends further support to Reason's model that suggests that active failures are promoted by latent conditions in the organization. Statistical relationships linking fallible decisions in upper management levels were found to directly affect supervisory practices, thereby creating the psychological preconditions for unsafe acts and hence indirectly impairing the performance of pilots, ultimately leading to accidents.

  3. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    PubMed

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Causal beliefs about depression in different cultural groups—what do cognitive psychological theories of causal learning and reasoning predict?

    PubMed Central

    Hagmayer, York; Engelmann, Neele

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive psychological research focuses on causal learning and reasoning while cognitive anthropological and social science research tend to focus on systems of beliefs. Our aim was to explore how these two types of research can inform each other. Cognitive psychological theories (causal model theory and causal Bayes nets) were used to derive predictions for systems of causal beliefs. These predictions were then applied to lay theories of depression as a specific test case. A systematic literature review on causal beliefs about depression was conducted, including original, quantitative research. Thirty-six studies investigating 13 non-Western and 32 Western cultural groups were analyzed by classifying assumed causes and preferred forms of treatment into common categories. Relations between beliefs and treatment preferences were assessed. Substantial agreement between cultural groups was found with respect to the impact of observable causes. Stress was generally rated as most important. Less agreement resulted for hidden, especially supernatural causes. Causal beliefs were clearly related to treatment preferences in Western groups, while evidence was mostly lacking for non-Western groups. Overall predictions were supported, but there were considerable methodological limitations. Pointers to future research, which may combine studies on causal beliefs with experimental paradigms on causal reasoning, are given. PMID:25505432

  5. Do material, psychosocial and behavioural factors mediate the relationship between disability acquisition and mental health? A sequential causal mediation analysis.

    PubMed

    Aitken, Zoe; Simpson, Julie Anne; Gurrin, Lyle; Bentley, Rebecca; Kavanagh, Anne Marie

    2018-01-29

    There is evidence of a causal relationship between disability acquisition and poor mental health; however, the mechanism by which disability affects mental health is poorly understood. This gap in understanding limits the development of effective interventions to improve the mental health of people with disabilities. We used four waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (2011-14) to compare self-reported mental health between individuals who acquired any disability (n=387) and those who remained disability-free (n=7936). We tested three possible pathways from disability acquisition to mental health, examining the effect of material, psychosocial and behavioural mediators. The effect was partitioned into natural direct and indirect effects through the mediators using a sequential causal mediation analysis approach. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to assess the impact of missing data. Disability acquisition was estimated to cause a five-point decline in mental health [estimated mean difference: -5.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) -6.8, -3.7]. The indirect effect through material factors was estimated to be a 1.7-point difference (-1.7, 95% CI -2.8, -0.6), explaining 32% of the total effect, with a negligible proportion of the effect explained by the addition of psychosocial characteristics (material and psychosocial: -1.7, 95% CI -3.0, -0.5) and a further 5% by behavioural factors (material-psychosocial-behavioural: -2.0, 95% CI -3.4, -0.6). The finding that the effect of disability acquisition on mental health operates predominantly through material rather than psychosocial and behavioural factors has important implications. The results highlight the need for better social protection, including income support, employment and education opportunities, and affordable housing for people who acquire a disability. © The Author(s) 2018; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the

  6. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  7. Quantum-coherent mixtures of causal relations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maclean, Jean-Philippe W.; Ried, Katja; Spekkens, Robert W.; Resch, Kevin J.

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the causal influences that hold among parts of a system is critical both to explaining that system's natural behaviour and to controlling it through targeted interventions. In a quantum world, understanding causal relations is equally important, but the set of possibilities is far richer. The two basic ways in which a pair of time-ordered quantum systems may be causally related are by a cause-effect mechanism or by a common-cause acting on both. Here we show a coherent mixture of these two possibilities. We realize this nonclassical causal relation in a quantum optics experiment and derive a set of criteria for witnessing the coherence based on a quantum version of Berkson's effect, whereby two independent causes can become correlated on observation of their common effect. The interplay of causality and quantum theory lies at the heart of challenging foundational puzzles, including Bell's theorem and the search for quantum gravity.

  8. Quantum-coherent mixtures of causal relations

    PubMed Central

    MacLean, Jean-Philippe W.; Ried, Katja; Spekkens, Robert W.; Resch, Kevin J.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the causal influences that hold among parts of a system is critical both to explaining that system's natural behaviour and to controlling it through targeted interventions. In a quantum world, understanding causal relations is equally important, but the set of possibilities is far richer. The two basic ways in which a pair of time-ordered quantum systems may be causally related are by a cause-effect mechanism or by a common-cause acting on both. Here we show a coherent mixture of these two possibilities. We realize this nonclassical causal relation in a quantum optics experiment and derive a set of criteria for witnessing the coherence based on a quantum version of Berkson's effect, whereby two independent causes can become correlated on observation of their common effect. The interplay of causality and quantum theory lies at the heart of challenging foundational puzzles, including Bell's theorem and the search for quantum gravity. PMID:28485394

  9. Quantum-coherent mixtures of causal relations.

    PubMed

    MacLean, Jean-Philippe W; Ried, Katja; Spekkens, Robert W; Resch, Kevin J

    2017-05-09

    Understanding the causal influences that hold among parts of a system is critical both to explaining that system's natural behaviour and to controlling it through targeted interventions. In a quantum world, understanding causal relations is equally important, but the set of possibilities is far richer. The two basic ways in which a pair of time-ordered quantum systems may be causally related are by a cause-effect mechanism or by a common-cause acting on both. Here we show a coherent mixture of these two possibilities. We realize this nonclassical causal relation in a quantum optics experiment and derive a set of criteria for witnessing the coherence based on a quantum version of Berkson's effect, whereby two independent causes can become correlated on observation of their common effect. The interplay of causality and quantum theory lies at the heart of challenging foundational puzzles, including Bell's theorem and the search for quantum gravity.

  10. Domain-specific perceptual causality in children depends on the spatio-temporal configuration, not motion onset

    PubMed Central

    Schlottmann, Anne; Cole, Katy; Watts, Rhianna; White, Marina

    2013-01-01

    Humans, even babies, perceive causality when one shape moves briefly and linearly after another. Motion timing is crucial in this and causal impressions disappear with short delays between motions. However, the role of temporal information is more complex: it is both a cue to causality and a factor that constrains processing. It affects ability to distinguish causality from non-causality, and social from mechanical causality. Here we study both issues with 3- to 7-year-olds and adults who saw two computer-animated squares and chose if a picture of mechanical, social or non-causality fit each event best. Prior work fit with the standard view that early in development, the distinction between the social and physical domains depends mainly on whether or not the agents make contact, and that this reflects concern with domain-specific motion onset, in particular, whether the motion is self-initiated or not. The present experiments challenge both parts of this position. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that not just spatial, but also animacy and temporal information affect how children distinguish between physical and social causality. In Experiments 3 and 4 we showed that children do not seem to use spatio-temporal information in perceptual causality to make inferences about self- or other-initiated motion onset. Overall, spatial contact may be developmentally primary in domain-specific perceptual causality in that it is processed easily and is dominant over competing cues, but it is not the only cue used early on and it is not used to infer motion onset. Instead, domain-specific causal impressions may be automatic reactions to specific perceptual configurations, with a complex role for temporal information. PMID:23874308

  11. Analysis of Occupational Accident Fatalities and Injuries Among Male Group in Iran Between 2008 and 2012

    PubMed Central

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2015-01-01

    Background: Because of occupational accidents, permanent disabilities and deaths occur and economic and workday losses emerge. Objectives: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the factors responsible for occupational accidents occurred in Iran. Patients and Methods: The current study analyzed 1464 occupational accidents recorded by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs’ offices in Iran during 2008 - 2012. At first, general understanding of accidents was obtained using descriptive statistics. Afterwards, the chi-square test and Cramer’s V statistic (Vc) were used to determine the association between factors influencing the type of injury as occupational accident outcomes. Results: There was no significant association between marital status and time of day with the type of injury. However, activity sector, cause of accident, victim’s education, age of victim and victim’s experience were significantly associated with the type of injury. Conclusions: Successful accident prevention relies largely on knowledge about the causes of accidents. In any accident control activity, particularly in occupational accidents, correctly identifying high-risk groups and factors influencing accidents is the key to successful interventions. Results of this study can cause to increase accident awareness and enable workplace’s management to select and prioritize problem areas and safety system weakness in workplaces. PMID:26568848

  12. Prenatal nutrition, epigenetics and schizophrenia risk: can we test causal effects?

    PubMed

    Kirkbride, James B; Susser, Ezra; Kundakovic, Marija; Kresovich, Jacob K; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

    2012-06-01

    We posit that maternal prenatal nutrition can influence offspring schizophrenia risk via epigenetic effects. In this article, we consider evidence that prenatal nutrition is linked to epigenetic outcomes in offspring and schizophrenia in offspring, and that schizophrenia is associated with epigenetic changes. We focus upon one-carbon metabolism as a mediator of the pathway between perturbed prenatal nutrition and the subsequent risk of schizophrenia. Although post-mortem human studies demonstrate DNA methylation changes in brains of people with schizophrenia, such studies cannot establish causality. We suggest a testable hypothesis that utilizes a novel two-step Mendelian randomization approach, to test the component parts of the proposed causal pathway leading from prenatal nutritional exposure to schizophrenia. Applied here to a specific example, such an approach is applicable for wider use to strengthen causal inference of the mediating role of epigenetic factors linking exposures to health outcomes in population-based studies.

  13. Unveiling causal activity of complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams-García, Rashid V.; Beggs, John M.; Ortiz, Gerardo

    2017-07-01

    We introduce a novel tool for analyzing complex network dynamics, allowing for cascades of causally-related events, which we call causal webs (c-webs), to be separated from other non-causally-related events. This tool shows that traditionally-conceived avalanches may contain mixtures of spatially-distinct but temporally-overlapping cascades of events, and dynamical disorder or noise. In contrast, c-webs separate these components, unveiling previously hidden features of the network and dynamics. We apply our method to mouse cortical data with resulting statistics which demonstrate for the first time that neuronal avalanches are not merely composed of causally-related events. The original version of this article was uploaded to the arXiv on March 17th, 2016 [1].

  14. Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuipers, Benjamin

    The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

  15. Causal Inference in Retrospective Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holland, Paul W.; Rubin, Donald B.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of drawing causal inferences from retrospective case-controlled studies is considered. A model for causal inference in prospective studies is applied to retrospective studies. Limitations of case-controlled studies are formulated concerning relevant parameters that can be estimated in such studies. A coffee-drinking/myocardial…

  16. Causal Learning with Local Computations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernbach, Philip M.; Sloman, Steven A.

    2009-01-01

    The authors proposed and tested a psychological theory of causal structure learning based on local computations. Local computations simplify complex learning problems via cues available on individual trials to update a single causal structure hypothesis. Structural inferences from local computations make minimal demands on memory, require…

  17. Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

    PubMed

    Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

    2017-11-30

    Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Non-Gaussian Methods for Causal Structure Learning.

    PubMed

    Shimizu, Shohei

    2018-05-22

    Causal structure learning is one of the most exciting new topics in the fields of machine learning and statistics. In many empirical sciences including prevention science, the causal mechanisms underlying various phenomena need to be studied. Nevertheless, in many cases, classical methods for causal structure learning are not capable of estimating the causal structure of variables. This is because it explicitly or implicitly assumes Gaussianity of data and typically utilizes only the covariance structure. In many applications, however, non-Gaussian data are often obtained, which means that more information may be contained in the data distribution than the covariance matrix is capable of containing. Thus, many new methods have recently been proposed for using the non-Gaussian structure of data and inferring the causal structure of variables. This paper introduces prevention scientists to such causal structure learning methods, particularly those based on the linear, non-Gaussian, acyclic model known as LiNGAM. These non-Gaussian data analysis tools can fully estimate the underlying causal structures of variables under assumptions even in the presence of unobserved common causes. This feature is in contrast to other approaches. A simulated example is also provided.

  19. Sleep loss and accidents--work hours, life style, and sleep pathology.

    PubMed

    Akerstedt, Torbjörn; Philip, Pierre; Capelli, Aurore; Kecklund, Göran

    2011-01-01

    A very important outcome of reduced sleep is accidents. The present chapter will attempt to bring together some of the present knowledge in this area. We will focus on the driving situation, for which the evidence of the link between sleep loss and accidents is quite well established, but we will also bring up working life in general where evidence is more sparse. It should be emphasized that reduced sleep as a cause of accidents implies that the mediating factor is sleepiness (or fatigue). This link is discussed elsewhere in this volume, but here we will bring in sleepiness (subjective or physiological) as an explanatory factor of accidents. Another central observation is that many real life accident studies do not link accidents to reduced sleep, but infer reduced sleep and/or sleepiness from the context, like, for example, from work schedules, life styles, or sleep pathology. Reduced sleep is mainly due to suboptimal work schedules (or to a suboptimal life style) or to sleep pathology. We have divided the present chapter into two areas. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Review of hydrogen accidents and incidents in NASA operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ordin, P. M.

    1974-01-01

    A number of the accidents/incidents with hydrogen in NASA operations are reviewed. The cause factors for the mishaps are reviewed and show that although few accidents occurred, the number could have been further reduced if the established NASA rules and regulations had been followed. Requirements for effective safety codes and areas of study for hydrogen safety information are included. The report concludes with a compilation of 96 hydrogen mishaps; a description of the accidents and their causes.

  1. Causal Relation Analysis Tool of the Case Study in the Engineer Ethics Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Yoshio; Morita, Keisuke; Yasui, Mitsukuni; Tanada, Ichirou; Fujiki, Hiroyuki; Aoyagi, Manabu

    In engineering ethics education, the virtual experiencing of dilemmas is essential. Learning through the case study method is a particularly effective means. Many case studies are, however, difficult to deal with because they often include many complex causal relationships and social factors. It would thus be convenient if there were a tool that could analyze the factors of a case example and organize them into a hierarchical structure to get a better understanding of the whole picture. The tool that was developed applies a cause-and-effect matrix and simple graph theory. It analyzes the causal relationship between facts in a hierarchical structure and organizes complex phenomena. The effectiveness of this tool is shown by presenting an actual example.

  2. Lifestyle and accidents among young drivers.

    PubMed

    Gregersen, N P; Berg, H Y

    1994-06-01

    This study covers the lifestyle component of the problems related to young drivers' accident risk. The purpose of the study is to measure the relationship between lifestyle and accident risk, and to identify specific high-risk and low-risk groups. Lifestyle is measured through a questionnaire, where 20-year-olds describe themselves and how often they deal with a large number of different activities, like sports, music, movies, reading, cars and driving, political engagement, etc. They also report their involvement in traffic accidents. With a principal component analysis followed by a cluster analysis, lifestyle profiles are defined. These profiles are finally correlated to accidents, which makes it possible to define high-risk and low-risk groups. The cluster analysis defined 15 clusters including four high-risk groups with an average overrisk of 150% and two low-risk groups with an average underrisk of 75%. The results are discussed from two perspectives. The first is the importance of theoretical understanding of the contribution of lifestyle factors to young drivers' high accident risk. The second is how the findings could be used in practical road safety measures, like education, campaigns, etc.

  3. Supporting inquiry learning by promoting normative understanding of multivariable causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keselman, Alla

    2003-11-01

    Early adolescents may lack the cognitive and metacognitive skills necessary for effective inquiry learning. In particular, they are likely to have a nonnormative mental model of multivariable causality in which effects of individual variables are neither additive nor consistent. Described here is a software-based intervention designed to facilitate students' metalevel and performance-level inquiry skills by enhancing their understanding of multivariable causality. Relative to an exploration-only group, sixth graders who practiced predicting an outcome (earthquake risk) based on multiple factors demonstrated increased attention to evidence, improved metalevel appreciation of effective strategies, and a trend toward consistent use of a controlled comparison strategy. Sixth graders who also received explicit instruction in making predictions based on multiple factors showed additional improvement in their ability to compare multiple instances as a basis for inferences and constructed the most accurate knowledge of the system. Gains were maintained in transfer tasks. The cognitive skills and metalevel understanding examined here are essential to inquiry learning.

  4. Causal discovery and inference: concepts and recent methodological advances.

    PubMed

    Spirtes, Peter; Zhang, Kun

    This paper aims to give a broad coverage of central concepts and principles involved in automated causal inference and emerging approaches to causal discovery from i.i.d data and from time series. After reviewing concepts including manipulations, causal models, sample predictive modeling, causal predictive modeling, and structural equation models, we present the constraint-based approach to causal discovery, which relies on the conditional independence relationships in the data, and discuss the assumptions underlying its validity. We then focus on causal discovery based on structural equations models, in which a key issue is the identifiability of the causal structure implied by appropriately defined structural equation models: in the two-variable case, under what conditions (and why) is the causal direction between the two variables identifiable? We show that the independence between the error term and causes, together with appropriate structural constraints on the structural equation, makes it possible. Next, we report some recent advances in causal discovery from time series. Assuming that the causal relations are linear with nonGaussian noise, we mention two problems which are traditionally difficult to solve, namely causal discovery from subsampled data and that in the presence of confounding time series. Finally, we list a number of open questions in the field of causal discovery and inference.

  5. Traffic crash accidents in Tehran, Iran: Its relation with circadian rhythm of sleepiness.

    PubMed

    Sadeghniiat-Haghighi, Khosro; Yazdi, Zohreh; Moradinia, Mohsen; Aminian, Omid; Esmaili, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are one of main problems in Iran. Multiple factors cause traffic accidents and the most important one is sleepiness. This factor, however, is given less attention in our country. Road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness are studied. In this cross-sectional study, all road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness, which were reported by police, were studied in Tehran province in 2009. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was increased by more than sevenfold (odds ratio = 7.33) in low alertness hours (0:00-6:00) compared to other time of day. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was decreased by 0.15-fold (odds ratio = 0.15) in hours with maximum of alertness (18:00-22:00) of circadian rhythm compared to other time of day. The occurrence of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness has significant statistical relations with driving during lowest point of alertness of circadian rhythm.

  6. Sufficiency and Necessity Assumptions in Causal Structure Induction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R.

    2016-01-01

    Research on human causal induction has shown that people have general prior assumptions about causal strength and about how causes interact with the background. We propose that these prior assumptions about the parameters of causal systems do not only manifest themselves in estimations of causal strength or the selection of causes but also when…

  7. Exploring Individual Differences in Preschoolers' Causal Stance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E.

    2016-01-01

    Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In…

  8. Constraints on Children's Judgments of Magical Causality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woolley, Jacqueline D.; Browne, Cheryl A.; Boerger, Elizabeth A.

    2006-01-01

    In 3 studies we addressed the operation of constraints on children's causal judgments. Our primary focus was whether children's beliefs about magical causality, specifically wishing, are constrained by features that govern the attribution of ordinary causality. In Experiment 1, children witnessed situations in which a confederate's wish appeared…

  9. Research requirements to improve safety of civil helicopters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Waters, K. T.

    1977-01-01

    Helicopter and fixed-wing accident data were reviewed and major accident causal factors were established. The impact of accidents on insurance rates was examined and the differences in fixed-wing and helicopter accident costs discussed. The state of the art in civil helicopter safety was compared to military helicopters. Goals were established based on incorporation of known technology and achievable improvements that require development, as well as administrative-type changes such as the impact of improved operational planning, training, and human factors effects. Specific R and D recommendations are provided with an estimation of the payoffs, timing, and development costs.

  10. Exploring the relationship between alcohol and the driver characteristics in motor vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Abdel-Aty, M A; Abdelwahab, H T

    2000-07-01

    This study examines the differences in alcohol-related accident involvement among different driver groups in the state of Florida. The driver characteristics considered in this study are: age, gender, race, and residency of the driver of a motor vehicle involved in an accident while under the influence of alcohol, drugs, or alcohol and drugs. The main objective of this study is to test whether there are associations between the different driver characteristics and alcohol involvement in traffic accidents, and to identify the high-risk group within each driver factor. This would improve our understanding of the relationship between alcohol involvement, accidents, and the four aforementioned driver factors. It would also enable us to better design educational and awareness programs targeting specific groups in the population to reduce drinking and driving in the state. The relationship between alcohol-related accident involvement and the driver factors are investigated using general descriptive statistics, conditional probabilities and log-linear models. The results showed that the 25-34 age group experience the highest rate of alcohol/drug involvement in accidents. The rates decline with the increase in the age of the drivers. The results also indicated that there are significant relationships between the driver characteristics and alcohol/drug involvement in accidents. Male, white, and in-state drivers were also more involved in alcohol/drugs-related traffic accidents.

  11. Pilot error in air carrier accidents: does age matter?

    PubMed

    Li, Guohua; Grabowski, Jurek G; Baker, Susan P; Rebok, George W

    2006-07-01

    The relationship between pilot age and safety performance has been the subject of research and controversy since the "Age 60 Rule" became effective in 1960. This study aimed to examine age-related differences in the prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air carrier accidents. Investigation reports from the National Transportation Safety Board for accidents involving Part 121 operations in the United States between 1983 and 2002 were reviewed to identify pilot error and other contributing factors. Accident circumstances and the presence and type of pilot error were analyzed in relation to pilot age using Chi-square tests. Of the 558 air carrier accidents studied, 25% resulted from turbulence, 21% from mechanical failure, 16% from taxiing events, 13% from loss of control at landing or takeoff, and 25% from other causes. Accidents involving older pilots were more likely to be caused by turbulence, whereas accidents involving younger pilots were more likely to be taxiing events. Pilot error was a contributing factor in 34%, 38%, 35%, and 34% of the accidents involving pilots ages 25-34 yr, 35-44 yr, 45-54 yr, and 55-59 yr, respectively (p = 0.87). The patterns of pilot error were similar across age groups. Overall, 26% of the pilot errors identified were inattentiveness, 22% flawed decisions, 22% mishandled aircraft kinetics, and 11% poor crew interactions. The prevalence and patterns of pilot error in air carrier accidents do not seem to change with pilot age. The lack of association between pilot age and error may be due to the "safe worker effect" resulting from the rigorous selection processes and certification standards for professional pilots.

  12. Physiologic, demographic and mechanistic factors predicting New Injury Severity Score (NISS) in motor vehicle accident victims.

    PubMed

    Staff, T; Eken, T; Wik, L; Røislien, J; Søvik, S

    2014-01-01

    Current literature on motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) has few reports regarding field factors that predict the degree of injury. Also, studies of mechanistic factors rarely consider concurrent predictive effects of on-scene patient physiology. The New Injury Severity Score (NISS) has previously been found to correlate with mortality, need for ICU admission, length of hospital stay, and functional recovery after trauma. To potentially increase future precision of trauma triage, we assessed how the NISS is associated with physiologic, demographic and mechanistic variables from the accident site. Using mixed-model linear regression analyses, we explored the association between NISS and pre-hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Revised Trauma Score (RTS) categories of respiratory rate (RR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP), gender, age, subject position in the vehicle, seatbelt use, airbag deployment, and the estimated squared change in vehicle velocity on impact ((Δv)(2)). Missing values were handled with multiple imputation. We included 190 accidents with 353 dead or injured subjects (mean NISS 17, median NISS 8, IQR 1-27). For the 307 subjects in front-impact MVAs, the mean increase in NISS was -2.58 per GCS point, -2.52 per RR category level, -2.77 per SBP category level, -1.08 for male gender, 0.18 per year of age, 4.98 for driver vs. rear passengers, 4.83 for no seatbelt use, 13.52 for indeterminable seatbelt use, 5.07 for no airbag deployment, and 0.0003 per (km/h)(2) velocity change (all p<0.002). This study in victims of MVAs demonstrated that injury severity (NISS) was concurrently and independently predicted by poor pre-hospital physiologic status, increasing age and female gender, and several mechanistic measures of localised and generalised trauma energy. Our findings underscore the need for precise information from the site of trauma, to reduce undertriage, target diagnostic efforts, and anticipate need for high-level care and rehabilitative resources

  13. The Development of Causal Categorization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, Brett K.; Rehder, Bob

    2012-01-01

    Two experiments examined the impact of causal relations between features on categorization in 5- to 6-year-old children and adults. Participants learned artificial categories containing instances with causally related features and noncausal features. They then selected the most likely category member from a series of novel test pairs.…

  14. Establishing causal coherence across sentences: an ERP study

    PubMed Central

    Kuperberg, Gina R.; Paczynski, Martin; Ditman, Tali

    2011-01-01

    This study examined neural activity associated with establishing causal relationships across sentences during online comprehension. ERPs were measured while participants read and judged the relatedness of three-sentence scenarios in which the final sentence was highly causally related, intermediately related and causally unrelated to its context. Lexico-semantic co-occurrence was matched across the three conditions using a Latent Semantic Analysis. Critical words in causally unrelated scenarios evoked a larger N400 than words in both highly causally related and intermediately related scenarios, regardless of whether they appeared before or at the sentence-final position. At midline sites, the N400 to intermediately related sentence-final words was attenuated to the same degree as to highly causally related words, but otherwise the N400 to intermediately related words fell in between that evoked by highly causally related and intermediately related words. No modulation of the Late Positivity/P600 component was observed across conditions. These results indicate that both simple and complex causal inferences can influence the earliest stages of semantically processing an incoming word. Further, they suggest that causal coherence, at the situation level, can influence incremental word-by-word discourse comprehension, even when semantic relationships between individual words are matched. PMID:20175676

  15. 10-year evaluation of train accidents.

    PubMed

    Akkaş, Meltem; Ay, Didem; Metin Aksu, Nalan; Günalp, Müge

    2011-09-01

    Although less frequent than automobile accidents, train accidents have a major impact on victims' lives. Records of patients older than 16 years of age admitted to the Adult Emergency Department of Hacettepe University Medical Center due to train accidents were retrospectively evaluated. 44 patients (30 males, 14 females) with a mean age of 31.8±11.4 years were included in the study. The majority of the accidents occurred during commuting hours. 37 patients were discharged, 22 of them from the emergency department. The mortality rate was 7/44 (16%). Overall mean Revised Trauma Score (RTS) was 10.5 (3 in deaths and 11.9 in survivors). In 5 patients, the cause of death was pelvic trauma leading to major vascular injury and lower limb amputation. In 1 patient, thorax and abdomen trauma and in 1 patient head injury were the causes of mortality. Primary risk factors for mortality were alcohol intoxication (100%), cardiopulmonary resuscitation on admittance (100%), recurrent suicide attempt (75%), presence of psychiatric illness (60%), and low RTS. In this study, most train accidents causing minor injuries were due to falling from the train prior to acceleration. Nevertheless, train accidents led to a mortality rate of 16% and morbidity rate of 37%. These findings draw attention to the importance of developing preventive strategies.

  16. Granger-causality maps of diffusion processes.

    PubMed

    Wahl, Benjamin; Feudel, Ulrike; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, Matthias; Peinke, Joachim; Freund, Jan A

    2016-02-01

    Granger causality is a statistical concept devised to reconstruct and quantify predictive information flow between stochastic processes. Although the general concept can be formulated model-free it is often considered in the framework of linear stochastic processes. Here we show how local linear model descriptions can be employed to extend Granger causality into the realm of nonlinear systems. This novel treatment results in maps that resolve Granger causality in regions of state space. Through examples we provide a proof of concept and illustrate the utility of these maps. Moreover, by integration we convert the local Granger causality into a global measure that yields a consistent picture for a global Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Finally, we recover invariance transformations known from the theory of autoregressive processes.

  17. Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: Using the children-of-twins design to test causal hypotheses

    PubMed Central

    Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D’Onofrio, Brian M

    2013-01-01

    Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behaviour. It is not clear if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children-of-siblings and children-of-twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant MZ twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association. PMID:23398750

  18. Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: using the children of twins design to test causal hypotheses.

    PubMed

    Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M

    2013-02-01

    Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behavior. It is not clear, however, if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children of siblings and children of twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant monozygotic twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association.

  19. Temporal Information of Directed Causal Connectivity in Multi-Trial ERP Data using Partial Granger Causality.

    PubMed

    Youssofzadeh, Vahab; Prasad, Girijesh; Naeem, Muhammad; Wong-Lin, KongFatt

    2016-01-01

    Partial Granger causality (PGC) has been applied to analyse causal functional neural connectivity after effectively mitigating confounding influences caused by endogenous latent variables and exogenous environmental inputs. However, it is not known how this connectivity obtained from PGC evolves over time. Furthermore, PGC has yet to be tested on realistic nonlinear neural circuit models and multi-trial event-related potentials (ERPs) data. In this work, we first applied a time-domain PGC technique to evaluate simulated neural circuit models, and demonstrated that the PGC measure is more accurate and robust in detecting connectivity patterns as compared to conditional Granger causality and partial directed coherence, especially when the circuit is intrinsically nonlinear. Moreover, the connectivity in PGC settles faster into a stable and correct configuration over time. After method verification, we applied PGC to reveal the causal connections of ERP trials of a mismatch negativity auditory oddball paradigm. The PGC analysis revealed a significant bilateral but asymmetrical localised activity in the temporal lobe close to the auditory cortex, and causal influences in the frontal, parietal and cingulate cortical areas, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the time to reach a stable connectivity configuration (~250–300 ms) coincides with the deviation of ensemble ERPs of oddball from standard tones. Finally, using a sliding time window, we showed higher resolution dynamics of causal connectivity within an ERP trial. In summary, time-domain PGC is promising in deciphering directed functional connectivity in nonlinear and ERP trials accurately, and at a sufficiently early stage. This data-driven approach can reduce computational time, and determine the key architecture for neural circuit modeling.

  20. Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.

    2011-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

  1. Drug Induced Liver Injury: Can Biomarkers Assist RUCAM in Causality Assessment?

    PubMed Central

    Teschke, Rolf; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel; Danan, Gaby

    2017-01-01

    Drug induced liver injury (DILI) is a potentially serious adverse reaction in a few susceptible individuals under therapy by various drugs. Health care professionals facing DILI are confronted with a wealth of drug-unrelated liver diseases with high incidence and prevalence rates, which can confound the DILI diagnosis. Searching for alternative causes is a key element of RUCAM (Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method) to assess rigorously causality in suspected DILI cases. Diagnostic biomarkers as blood tests would be a great help to clinicians, regulators, and pharmaceutical industry would be more comfortable if, in addition to RUCAM, causality of DILI can be confirmed. High specificity and sensitivity are required for any diagnostic biomarker. Although some risk factors are available to evaluate liver safety of drugs in patients, no valid diagnostic or prognostic biomarker exists currently for idiosyncratic DILI when a liver injury occurred. Identifying a biomarker in idiosyncratic DILI requires detailed knowledge of cellular and biochemical disturbances leading to apoptosis or cell necrosis and causing leakage of specific products in blood. As idiosyncratic DILI is typically a human disease and hardly reproducible in animals, pathogenetic events and resulting possible biomarkers remain largely undisclosed. Potential new diagnostic biomarkers should be evaluated in patients with DILI and RUCAM-based established causality. In conclusion, causality assessment in cases of suspected idiosyncratic DILI is still best achieved using RUCAM since specific biomarkers as diagnostic blood tests that could enhance RUCAM results are not yet available. PMID:28398242

  2. Insomnia and accidents: cross-sectional study (EQUINOX) on sleep-related home, work and car accidents in 5293 subjects with insomnia from 10 countries.

    PubMed

    Léger, Damien; Bayon, Virginie; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre; Ement, Philippe; Metlaine, Arnaud; Chennaoui, Mounir; Faraut, Brice

    2014-04-01

    The link between sleepiness and the risk of motor vehicle accidents is well known, but little is understood regarding the risk of home, work and car accidents of subjects with insomnia. An international cross-sectional survey was conducted across 10 countries in a population of subjects with sleep disturbances. Primary care physicians administered a questionnaire that included assessment of sociodemographic characteristics, sleep disturbance and accidents (motor vehicle, work and home) related to sleep problems to each subject. Insomnia was defined using the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD-10) criteria. A total of 5293 subjects were included in the study, of whom 20.9% reported having had at least one home accident within the past 12 months, 10.1% at least one work accident, 9% reported having fallen asleep while driving at least once and 4.1% reported having had at least one car accident related to their sleepiness. All types of accident were reported more commonly by subjects living in urban compared to other residential areas. Car accidents were reported more commonly by employed subjects, whereas home injuries were reported more frequently by the unemployed. Car accidents were reported more frequently by males than by females, whereas home accidents were reported more commonly by females. Patients with insomnia have high rates of home accidents, car accidents and work accidents related to sleep disturbances independently of any adverse effects of hypnotic treatments. Reduced total sleep time may be one factor explaining the high risk of accidents in individuals who complain of insomnia. © 2013 European Sleep Research Society.

  3. Causal Factors of Weld Porosity in Gas Tungsten Arc Welding of Powder-Metallurgy-Produced Titanium Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muth, T. R.; Yamamoto, Y.; Frederick, D. A.; Contescu, C. I.; Chen, W.; Lim, Y. C.; Peter, W. H.; Feng, Z.

    2013-05-01

    An investigation was undertaken using gas tungsten arc (GTA) welding on consolidated powder metallurgy (PM) titanium (Ti) plate to identify the causal factors behind observed porosity in fusion welding. Tramp element compounds of sodium and magnesium, residual from the metallothermic reduction of titanium chloride used to produce the titanium, were remnant in the starting powder and were identified as gas-forming species. PM-titanium made from revert scrap, where sodium and magnesium were absent, showed fusion weld porosity, although to a lesser degree. We show that porosity was attributable to hydrogen from adsorbed water on the surface of the powders prior to consolidation. The removal and minimization of both adsorbed water on the surface of titanium powder and the residues from the reduction process prior to consolidation of titanium powders are critical for achieving equivalent fusion welding success similar to that seen in wrought titanium produced via the Kroll process.

  4. Developing Causal Understanding with Causal Maps: The Impact of Total Links, Temporal Flow, and Lateral Position of Outcome Nodes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeong, Allan; Lee, Woon Jee

    2012-01-01

    This study examined some of the methodological approaches used by students to construct causal maps in order to determine which approaches help students understand the underlying causes and causal mechanisms in a complex system. This study tested the relationship between causal understanding (ratio of root causes correctly/incorrectly identified,…

  5. Multiple Causality: Consequences for Medical Practice

    PubMed Central

    Nydegger, Corinne N.

    1983-01-01

    When a scientifically trained health professional is called upon to deal with patients holding differing causal views of illness, the resulting lack of communication is frustrating to both. This discussion traces some implications for medical practice of significant cultural differences in two aspects of causal paradigms of illness: (1) terms accepted and (2) dimension or level of causality typically sought. The second is the more pervasive and intractable problem, having distinctive consequences for the role of curer, symptomatology, diagnosis and treatment. PMID:6858133

  6. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occurmore » in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.« less

  7. Identity, causality, and pronoun ambiguity.

    PubMed

    Sagi, Eyal; Rips, Lance J

    2014-10-01

    This article looks at the way people determine the antecedent of a pronoun in sentence pairs, such as: Albert invited Ron to dinner. He spent hours cleaning the house. The experiment reported here is motivated by the idea that such judgments depend on reasoning about identity (e.g., the identity of the he who cleaned the house). Because the identity of an individual over time depends on the causal-historical path connecting the stages of the individual, the correct antecedent will also depend on causal connections. The experiment varied how likely it is that the event of the first sentence (e.g., the invitation) would cause the event of the second (the house cleaning) for each of the two individuals (the likelihood that if Albert invited Ron to dinner, this would cause Albert to clean the house, versus cause Ron to clean the house). Decisions about the antecedent followed causal likelihood. A mathematical model of causal identity accounted for most of the key aspects of the data from the individual sentence pairs. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  8. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Causal reasoning with mental models

    PubMed Central

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  10. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    PubMed

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  11. Wormholes, baby universes, and causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Visser, Matt

    1990-02-01

    In this paper wormholes defined on a Minkowski signature manifold are considered, both at the classical and quantum levels. It is argued that causality in quantum gravity may best be imposed by restricting the functional integral to include only causal Lorentzian spacetimes. Subject to this assumption, one can put very tight constraints on the quantum behavior of wormholes, their cousins the baby universes, and topology-changing processes in general. Even though topology-changing processes are tightly constrained, this still allows very interesting geometrical (rather than topological) effects. In particular, the laboratory construction of baby universes is not prohibited provided that the ``umbilical cord'' is never cut. Methods for relaxing these causality constraints are also discussed.

  12. Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

    PubMed

    Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

    2010-11-15

    The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Foundational perspectives on causality in large-scale brain networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannino, Michael; Bressler, Steven L.

    2015-12-01

    A profusion of recent work in cognitive neuroscience has been concerned with the endeavor to uncover causal influences in large-scale brain networks. However, despite the fact that many papers give a nod to the important theoretical challenges posed by the concept of causality, this explosion of research has generally not been accompanied by a rigorous conceptual analysis of the nature of causality in the brain. This review provides both a descriptive and prescriptive account of the nature of causality as found within and between large-scale brain networks. In short, it seeks to clarify the concept of causality in large-scale brain networks both philosophically and scientifically. This is accomplished by briefly reviewing the rich philosophical history of work on causality, especially focusing on contributions by David Hume, Immanuel Kant, Bertrand Russell, and Christopher Hitchcock. We go on to discuss the impact that various interpretations of modern physics have had on our understanding of causality. Throughout all this, a central focus is the distinction between theories of deterministic causality (DC), whereby causes uniquely determine their effects, and probabilistic causality (PC), whereby causes change the probability of occurrence of their effects. We argue that, given the topological complexity of its large-scale connectivity, the brain should be considered as a complex system and its causal influences treated as probabilistic in nature. We conclude that PC is well suited for explaining causality in the brain for three reasons: (1) brain causality is often mutual; (2) connectional convergence dictates that only rarely is the activity of one neuronal population uniquely determined by another one; and (3) the causal influences exerted between neuronal populations may not have observable effects. A number of different techniques are currently available to characterize causal influence in the brain. Typically, these techniques quantify the statistical

  14. Postoperative cerebrovascular accidents in general surgery.

    PubMed

    Larsen, S F; Zaric, D; Boysen, G

    1988-11-01

    In a prospective study of postoperative complications, strokes occurred in 6 out of 2463 patients (0.2%) who underwent non-cardiac, non-carotid artery surgery. The patients who experienced cerebrovascular accidents, including three cases of transient ischemic attack, were significantly older than the rest of the group (mean age 79 years versus 65 years) and had manifestations of atherosclerosis in at least one organ preoperatively. Significant predictors of risk for postoperative cerebrovascular accidents were previous cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and hypertension. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred late in the postoperative period, 5-26 days after surgery, and were not directly related to surgery and anesthesia. They were more frequent after acute than after elective operations. Precipitating factors for some of the stroke incidents were rapid atrial fibrillation and postoperative dehydration.

  15. The impact of vessel speed reduction on port accidents.

    PubMed

    Chang, Young-Tae; Park, Hyosoo

    2016-03-19

    Reduced-speed zones (RSZs) have been designated across the world to control emissions from ships and prevent mammal strikes. While some studies have examined the effectiveness of speed reduction on emissions and mammal preservation, few have analyzed the effects of reduced ship speed on vessel safety. Those few studies have not yet measured the relationship between vessel speed and accidents by using real accident data. To fill this gap in the literature, this study estimates the impact of vessel speed reduction on vessel damages, casualties and frequency of vessel accidents. Accidents in RSZ ports were compared to non-RSZ ports by using U.S. Coast Guard data to capture the speed reduction effects. The results show that speed reduction influenced accident frequency as a result of two factors, the fuel price and the RSZ designation. Every $10 increase in the fuel price led to a 10.3% decrease in the number of accidents, and the RSZ designation reduced vessel accidents by 47.9%. However, the results do not clarify the exact impact of speed reduction on accident casualty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Factors associated with access to physical rehabilitation for victims of traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Sousa, Kelienny de Meneses; Oliveira, Wagner Ivan Fonsêca de; Alves, Emanuel Augusto; Gama, Zenewton André da Silva

    2017-06-22

    Evaluate the level of access to physical rehabilitation for survivors of traffic accidents and the associated factors. A cross-sectional study performed in Natal, Northeastern Brazil, through a telephone survey of 155 victims of traffic accidents admitted to an emergency hospital between January and August of 2013, with a diagnosis of fracture, traumatic brain injury or amputation. Participants were identified in the database of the reference hospital for care of traffic accident victims. We calculated point estimates and confidence interval (95%CI) for the frequency of subjects who had access, in addition to multivariate analysis (logistic regression) between access (dependent variable) and sociodemographic, clinical, and assistance variables. Among the 155 respondents, the majority were adolescents and adults between 15-29 years of age (47.7%), men (82.6%), education up to high school (92.3%), income of up to two minimum wages (78.0%) and bikers (75.5%). Although 85.8% of traffic accident survivors reported the need for physical rehabilitation, there was little access (51.6%; 95%CI 43.7-59.4) and a delay to start the physical rehabilitation (average = 67 days). We classified factors associated with access to physical rehabilitation as: (i) unmodifiable individuals in the short term - family income greater than two minimum wages (OR = 3.7), informal worker (OR = 0.11) or unemployed (OR = 0.15) and possession of a private health care plan (OR = 0.07); and (ii) assistance modifiable by service management - written referral for physical rehabilitation (OR = 27.5) and perceived need of physical rehabilitation (OR = 10). This study found a low and slow access to physical rehabilitation for individuals potentially in need. The associated factors were the organizational processes of health care (health information and referral) and social determinants (income, occupation and private health care plan). Avaliar o nível de acesso à reabilitação física para

  17. Causality in cancer research: a journey through models in molecular epidemiology and their philosophical interpretation.

    PubMed

    Vineis, Paolo; Illari, Phyllis; Russo, Federica

    2017-01-01

    In the last decades, Systems Biology (including cancer research) has been driven by technology, statistical modelling and bioinformatics. In this paper we try to bring biological and philosophical thinking back. We thus aim at making different traditions of thought compatible: (a) causality in epidemiology and in philosophical theorizing-notably, the "sufficient-component-cause framework" and the "mark transmission" approach; (b) new acquisitions about disease pathogenesis, e.g. the "branched model" in cancer, and the role of biomarkers in this process; (c) the burgeoning of omics research, with a large number of "signals" and of associations that need to be interpreted. In the paper we summarize first the current views on carcinogenesis, and then explore the relevance of current philosophical interpretations of "cancer causes". We try to offer a unifying framework to incorporate biomarkers and omic data into causal models, referring to a position called "evidential pluralism". According to this view, causal reasoning is based on both "evidence of difference-making" (e.g. associations) and on "evidence of underlying biological mechanisms". We conceptualize the way scientists detect and trace signals in terms of information transmission , which is a generalization of the mark transmission theory developed by philosopher Wesley Salmon. Our approach is capable of helping us conceptualize how heterogeneous factors such as micro and macro-biological and psycho-social-are causally linked. This is important not only to understand cancer etiology, but also to design public health policies that target the right causal factors at the macro-level.

  18. A self-agency bias in preschoolers' causal inferences

    PubMed Central

    Kushnir, Tamar; Wellman, Henry M.; Gelman, Susan A.

    2013-01-01

    Preschoolers' causal learning from intentional actions – causal interventions – is subject to a self-agency bias. We propose that this bias is evidence-based; it is responsive to causal uncertainty. In the current studies, two causes (one child-controlled, one experimenter-controlled) were associated with one or two effects, first independently, then simultaneously. When initial independent effects were probabilistic, and thus subsequent simultaneous actions were causally ambiguous, children showed a self-agency bias. Children showed no bias when initial effects were deterministic. Further controls establish that children's self-agency bias is not a wholesale preference but rather is influenced by uncertainty in causal evidence. These results demonstrate that children's own experience of action influences their causal learning, and suggest possible benefits in uncertain and ambiguous everyday learning contexts. PMID:19271843

  19. Detecting the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration in the Jing-Jin-Ji region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ziyue; Cai, Jun; Gao, Bingbo; Xu, Bing; Dai, Shuang; He, Bin; Xie, Xiaoming

    2017-01-01

    Due to complicated interactions in the atmospheric environment, quantifying the influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration remains challenging. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (short for Jing-Jin-Ji) region is infamous for its serious air pollution. To improve regional air quality, characteristics and meteorological driving forces for PM2.5 concentration should be better understood. This research examined seasonal variations of PM2.5 concentration within the Jing-Jin-Ji region and extracted meteorological factors strongly correlated with local PM2.5 concentration. Following this, a convergent cross mapping (CCM) method was employed to quantify the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. The results proved that the CCM method was more likely to detect mirage correlations and reveal quantitative influences of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. For the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the higher PM2.5 concentration, the stronger influences meteorological factors exert on PM2.5 concentration. Furthermore, this research suggests that individual meteorological factors can influence local PM2.5 concentration indirectly by interacting with other meteorological factors. Due to the significant influence of local meteorology on PM2.5 concentration, more emphasis should be given on employing meteorological means for improving local air quality.

  20. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of