... Pagination or Media Count : 158. Abstract : This report documents the development of the Expected Accident Aggregation Model. ...

The report studies the use of quantitative methods as an aid to the policymaker concerned with automobile accident involvement. To illustrate the usefulness of such analysis, the paper develops probabilistic models for evaluating several alternative drive...

... modeling, data base development, vehicle and aircraft crashworthiness, dummy and human modeling, and accident reconstruction applications. ...

A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident has been developed. Processes caused by accident release and which will make an impact on radionuclide concentration in the edible parts of ...

A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the ...

A first version of models has been developed for predicting the number of occurrences of health effects induced by radiation exposure in nuclear reactor accidents. The models are based on the health effects models developed originally by Harvard Universit...

... MODEL OF THE HUMAN BODY AND EXTREMITY DYNAMICS CO ... to study human body dynamics associated with automobile accidents. ...

Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately ...

Mathematical models are developed to relate the accidents on interstate systems to the geometric and traffic characteristics of the systems. Models were developed for highway elements such as ramps, speed change lanes, etc., and for interchanges such as d...

Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models

The report describes a human factors research project performed to: (1) support the Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA) program and (2) develop a descriptive model of operator response in accident management. The first goal was accomplished by workin...

Page 1. Naval Health Research Center Intelligence and Accidents: ... Accidents and Intelligence Intelligence and Accidents: A Multilevel Model ...

The paper discusses work conducted to: (1) support the severe accident sequence analysis of a nuclear power plant transient based on an assessment of operator actions, and (2) develop a descriptive model of operator severe accident management. Operator actions during the transient are assessed using qualitative and ...

Analysing i* System Models for Dependability Properties: The Uberlingen Accident Neil Maiden1 to analyse the Uberlingen air accident of 2002. Models were developed to describe the air traffic control and analysed to derive system properties that could be linked with some reported causes of the ...

The Federal Highway Administration is developing an Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM) to assist highway geometric design engineers in considering the safety consequences of their design decisions. One element of the IHSDM will be an accident...

The MELPROG computer code is being developed to provide mechanistic treatment of Light Water Reactor (LWR) accidents from accident initiation through vessel failure. This paper describes a two-dimensional (r-z) debris meltdown model that is being develope...

This paper is concerned with the application of severe-accident codes to develop improved accident mitigation strategies for nuclear power plants employing boiling water reactors (BWRs). Specifically, the results of analyses using the APRIL.MOD3X code are presented for typical station blackout accidents. Issues ...

The objective of the research was to develop statistical models of the relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric elements for at-grade intersections. These models also incorporated the effect of traffic control features and traffic volu...

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines ...

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines ...

... deficient, whether by OSHA, ABC Shipyard, or through accident or illness. ... EMR) - A rate developed by worker's compensation insurance carriers to ...

"Accident Prevention. "Accident Mitigation. "Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling. Accident Prevention is attacking the issue of airplane accidents from ...

Immediately after the accident in the fourth power unit of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant many computational and analytical investigations of the development of the accident and the values of separate factors in this situation were performed at the NIKIET and other research centers. Foreign research centers, where, in particular, ...

The Accident Analysis in the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the Savannah River Site (SRS) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) has recently undergone an upgrade. Non-reactor SARs at SRS (and other Department of Energy (DOE) sites) use probabilistic techniques to assess the frequency of accidents at their facilities. This paper describes the ...

It is important to understand and model the chemical and physical behavior of vapor iodine species in containment environments for the following reasons: This behavior can contribute significantly to severe accident source terms; the development of accident mitigation or management strategies (e.g., an effective ...

Contents: Foreword; Describing the Evolution in the Number of Highway Deaths by Decomposition in Exposure, Accident Risk, and Fatality Risk; Comparison of Two Negative Binomial Regression Techniques in Developing Accident Prediction Models; Use of Propens...

A mathematical model for the purpose of assessing potential accidents and safety implications of the Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR) has been developed. The model considers relevant physical phenomena that govern the core such as reactor kinetics,...

A personal computer-based model, SMART, has been developed that uses an integral approach for calculating early offsite consequences from nuclear reactor accidents. The solution procedure uses simplified meteorology and involves direct analytic integratio...

An Accident Recovery Model (ARM) for recreational boating accidents is presented. Its development and application are described. The model is used to estimate the benefits of regulatory programs in four recovery problem areas. Methods and problems in bene...

A fuel dispersal model for C-141 transport accidents was developed for the Defense Nuclear Agency's Fuel Fire Technology Base Program to support Weapon System Safety Assessments. The spectrum of accidents resulting from aircraft impact on a runway was div...

Models were developed for analyses of economic risks from unanticipated events which occur, or could occur, during US LWR plant operation. The models estimate the economic consequences of LWR forced outages and accidents and can be used together with esti...

The report describes a computer-based model for estimating the tangible costs of injuries and deaths from work-related accidents in underground coal mines. The study undertook to identify and quantify the elements of accident costs, including field visits to coal mines, insurance carriers, and public agencies. The mathematical ...

A number of important developments have occurred recently in the area of nucler reactor accident offsite consequence analysis, including improvements in modeling capabilities, model evaluation studies, and application of existing models to provide guidance for planning and decision making. A ...

The regulatory requirement to measure the gamma radiation levels during accident conditions inside a reactor containment building is discussed. The development of a mineral-insulated cable and connector system to accurately transmit this measurement is described and a model of the response is developed.

The objective of the study is to develop a reconstruction procedure for pole accidents in which the struck pole was partially or completely fractured. Alternative reconstruction approaches were evaluated and an analytical model based on a three-phase coll...

To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis ...

Behavioral accidents are a particular type of accident. They are caused by inappropriate individual behaviors and faulty reactions. Catastrophe theory is a means for mathematically modeling the dynamic processes that underlie behavioral accidents. Based on a comprehensive data base of mining ...

The report developes a mathematical model predicting the probability of occurrence of marine accidents and the potential damage resulting from transportation of hazardous cargo.

The thesis presents an interpretation of the theory of biorhythms and develops a combined statistical model for a statistical calidation of the theory. The model is then used to investigate a set of intellectual data and a set of accident data. The intell...

A preliminary mathematical model has been developed to simulate the dynamic mechanical response of a large spent fuel shipping cask to the impact experienced in a hypothetical rail accident. The report was written to record the status of the development of the mechanical response model and to ...

While reliable estimates of expected accidents can be achieved by combining observed accidents and accident model predictions using an empirical Bayes approach, there are a number of obstacles to the widespread adoption of the method. This paper concentrates on problems associated with the available predictive ...

Due to accident severity and the extent of claim payments commuting accidents are a significant expense factor in the German industry. Therefore the aim of the present study was the identification of risk factors for commuting accidents in a German chemical company. A retrospective analysis of commuting accidents ...

A computer model was developed and utilized for calculating the benefits of passenger protective breathing devices and other fire safety improvements based on an analysis of accidents involving fire occurring from 1966 to 1986. The results of exercising t...

Detailed analysis of massive water ingress accidents in high temperature reactors supposes a numerical simulation of the whole facility behaviour. For the AVR-reactor such a model was developed to describe both the graphite corrosion processes and the acc...

The report presents the final results of a four-year project to evaluate the safety impact of FMVSS 121. The study focuses on the experience of 1974-1977 model year vehicles. National estimates of fatal and injury accident involvement rates are developed ...

Continuing research to develop and verify computer models of CANDU-PHW reactor process and safety systems is described. It is focussed on loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) because they are the precursors of more serious accidents. Research topics include:...

In support of the Accident Sequence Precursor Program (ASP), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in conjunction with the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), in 1994 developed the Accident Sequence Precursor Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Model (A...

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage o...

The RELAP5 code has been developed for best-estimate transient simulation of light water reactor coolant systems during a severe accident. The code models the coupled behavior of the reactor coolant system and the core during a severe accident transient, ...

In the development of the Severe Accident Analysis Program for the Savannah River production reactors, it was recognized that certain accidents have -the potential for causing damaging steam explosions. Steam explosions can occur when metals, such as the ...

The paper will discuss work being conducted during this human factors review including: (1) support of the Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA) Program based on an assessment of operator actions, and (2) development of a descriptive model of operator ...

The purpose of the work to be described was to develop an accurate and efficient numerical method to model melting attack on reactor structures following a hypothetical accident. To this end, the isotherm migration method (IMM) has been investigated. In t...

The objective of this report is to establish the radiological consequence analysis methodology for the postulated accidents which result in the radioactivity release to the ambient air. For this, reviewing were the methodology described in the Final Safet...

... or a medical accident or an act of terrorism, internalization of radionuclides poses a challenge for assessment ... wounds. Although seemingly intended primarily for radiological accident victims (work wa...

The rate of release of radioactive materials from a containment during a severe accident has a significant impact on the consequences of the accident. One hypothesis for a containment leakage model states that the containment will develop a controlled, re...

on discrete failure events that do not adequately handle software intensive systems or system accidents where a hazard analysis based on the STAMP accident model is performed together with the system development process to design for safety in a complex system. Unlike traditional hazard analyses

For many years, study of whole-core transients and accidents in fast reactors has been a major element of safety research and development programs in the US. Numerous models and computer codes have been developed and validated for use in these studies. Historically, emphasis has been placed on describing the core ...

... PHYSIOLOGY), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PROTECTION, INSTRUMENTATION, MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS, AVIATION ACCIDENTS ...

In this paper, a simple analytical code, QUASAR, is developed to analyze the phenomena related to severe subassembly accidents, such as a total instantaneous blockage event for a subassembly inlet. The code models failed and neighboring subassemblies, focusing mainly on the thermal consequences and the propagation potential of the ...

In order to estimate the potential risks due to carbon fibers (CF) released from aircraft accidents, it was necessary to quantify the probability of an accident or incident at a major hub airport. This probability was contingent upon various conditions surrounding the incident including the phase of operation, aircraft type, and the weather conditions. The ...

A Simplified Risk Model (SRM) is being developed to support environmental restoration and waste management (EM) planning activities. The SRM is designed to be able to quantitatively estimate risk for various EM alternatives within hours or days, given limited information about the processes covered within the alternative. The risk ...

Bes,M. Johnson,C.W. The Second Workshop on Human Error, Safety and Systems Development pp 45

these and other analyses we developed a modeling framework for ... accident was some confusion, on part of the flight crew, about the status of the autoflight ...

The purpose of this project was to combine presently available advanced computer modeling techniques for reconstructing a crash sequence to the development of methods for determining occupant contact velocities, impact forces and occupant responses in pas...

The purpose of this paper is to describe recent developments in computer simulation of hypothetical criticality accidents in aqueous fissile solutions of uranium and plutonium such as might be encountered in fuel fabrication and reprocessing operations. Models for reactivity shutdown mechanisms and equations of state have been combined ...

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these ...

One of the most important uses of dose assessment models in response to accidents at nuclear facilities is to help provide guidance to emergency response managers for identifying, and mitigating, the consequences of an accident once the accident has been terminated. By combining results from assessment ...

A flow stress model was developed for predicting failure of Electrosleeved PWR steam generator tubing under severe accident transients. The Electrosleeve, which is nanocrystalline pure nickel, loses its strength at temperatures greater than 400 C during severe accidents because of grain growth. A grain growth ...

... Page 18. The accident data analyses developed by computer and submitted previously and separately to the monitoring agency showed accident ...

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade ...

This paper concerns applicability of drywell cooler (DWC) heat removal under severe accident condition in BWR plants. Newly developed heat removal models based on DWC heat removal experiments were built into the MAAP3 code. And then, two types of Japanese BWR were selected to evaluate DWC heat removal performance under typical severe ...

This paper develops a concrete situation witch is the search for an evacuation distance in case of a road accident implying a chlorine tank. The methodological aspect is how implementing uncertainty analysis in deterministic models with random parameters....

Recently a new pressurizer model was developed for the DSNP simulation language. The model was connected to a simulation of the Trojan pressurized water reactor (PWR) and tested by simulating a loss-of-off-site power (LOSP) anticipated transient without scram. The results compare well to a similar study performed using the RELAP code. ...

This paper describes the analysis of the Three Mile Island-2 (TMI-2) standard problem that was performed with MELCOR. The MELCOR computer code is being developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the purpose of analyzing severe accident in nuclear power plants. The primary role of MELCOR is to provide realistic ...

The aim of this work was to estimate absorbed doses received by a victim of the radiation accident with a 60Co source in Henan province, China. With a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method, an estimation method for doses to the radiation accident victim was made. It utilised a mathematical model of adult man (MIRD) and a relative ...

A TRACE/PARCS input model has been developed in order to be able to analyze anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) in a boiling water reactor. The model is based on one developed previously for the Browns Ferry reactor for doing loss-of-coolant accid...

The Chernobyl accident initiated a wide international interest in developing long range transport models for assessment of radiological consequences due to airborne releases. The Finnish TRADOS computer model had been developed to calculate long range atm...

The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953-2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration ...

A computational model has been developed that calculates the thermal degradation of the reactor core of the production reactors at the Savannah River Site (SRS) under postulated severe accident conditions. This model addresses heatup and degradation of th...

The EXPRESS and ADPIC models have been designed to assist emergency personnel in their response to radiological accidents. Closure on the development of an operational version of the HADPIC Modeling System (HMS), a multi-faceted application that supports ...

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages...

The increasingly sophisticated computer technology can provide an aid to more detailed insight into important facets of the accident process. Up to now, two major types of models have been acquired: (1) a highly sophisticated model, called VEDYAC, simulat...

The report details a catastrophe theory model of the accident process with empirical validation. According to the cusp model, two distinct levels of risk can be observed for a distribution of group accident rates, one at 0.0 Occupational Safety and Health Association (OSHA)-reportable accidents ...

This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report 2, Volume 2. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical ...

An atmospheric dispersion and consequence model called RADIS has been developed by the University of Hong Kong for nuclear accident consequence analysis. The model uses a two-dimensional plume trajectory derived from wind data for Hong Kong. Dose, health effects, and demographic models are also ...

This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical ...

Two of the primary goals of this study were (i) to check the structural and thermal performance of the GA-4 cask in a broad range of accidents and (ii) to carry out a severe-accidents analysis as had been addressed in the Modal Study but now using a specific recent cask design and using current-generation computer models and ...

Modeling and code development work on the modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) continued with the development and testing of a thermal model of the upper reflector. The longer-term heatup accident scenario in which cavity wall cooling is los...

The Negative Binomial modeling technique was used to model the frequency of accident occurrence and involvement. Accident data over a period of 3 years, accounting for 1,606 accidents on a principal arterial in Central Florida, were used to estimate the model. The ...

The guidelines were prepared to assist the Consumer Product Safety Commission in the development of generic safety standards. This development is based on conceptual models of product hazard interactions and analyses of accident sequences, product cluster...

This study was performed in an experimental porcine model of acute local irradiation chosen to simulate human accidents. It enabled the researchers to determine the development and the physiopathological characteristics of the fibrous tissue which develop...

Although numerous models have been developed for occupational and medical internal dosimetry, they may not be applicable to an accident situation. Published dose coefficients relate effective dose to intake, but if acute deterministic effects are possible, effective dose is not a useful parameter. Consequently, dose rates to the organs ...

Four accidents are postulated and analyzed for interim storage of high-level, liquid radioactive wastes at a fuel reprocessing facility. Normal waste storage operation is based on wastes stored in steel drums, partially buried in concrete canyons, and equipped with heat exchangers for cooling and ventilation systems for removal of explosive gases and vapors. The ...

APRIL is a fast-running and user-friendly system code for interactive simulations of severe accidents in boiling water reactors (BWRs). The component models in the most recent version, APRIL.MOD3X, include the reactor core and pressure vessel, as well as the primary and secondary containments. Whereas APRIL.MOD3X is a fast-running code, the ...

To conduct risk assessments in routing studies for the highway transportation of hazardous materials (Hazmat), estimates of accident and release rates are essential. Published literature underscores the importance of these rates in risk assessment, and the significant shortcomings of the available data. Truck accident rates are ...

While it would be very difficult to predetermine all of the actions required to mitigate the consequences of every potential severe accident for a nuclear power plant, development of additional guidance and training could improve the likelihood that the operating crew would implement effective sever-accident management measures. The US ...

The MELCOR code, developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a fully integrated, relatively fast-running code that models the progression of severe accidents in commercial light water nuclear power plants (NPPs).A specific station blackout (SBO) accident for Kuosheng (BWR-6) NPP is simulated using the MELCOR ...

The statistics previously published on the development of accidents were completed. It is the purpose of this accident report: 1) to present a survey of the development of the number of accidents (no radiation accidents) for the years 1960 - 1976, 2) to b...