A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident has been developed. Processes caused by accident release and which will make an impact on radionuclide concentration in the edible parts of ...

Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction ...

analyzed the Three Mile Island [1984] and Bhopal [1999] cases, among others. Accidents of this type include an. Osprey helicopter crash [Ladkin 2001], ...

Contents: Foreword; Describing the Evolution in the Number of Highway Deaths by Decomposition in Exposure, Accident Risk, and Fatality Risk; Comparison of Two Negative Binomial Regression Techniques in Developing Accident Prediction Models; Use of Propens...

The performance of the Nuclear Facility (NFAC) incident module in modeling a nuclear reactor accident is evaluated. Fallout predictions are compared with air concentration measurements of I-131 in Europe over a five-day period. Two categories of source te...

... model predicting the probability of occurrence of marine accidents and the potential damage resulting from transportation of hazardous cargo. ...

A first version of models has been developed for predicting the number of occurrences of health effects induced by radiation exposure in nuclear reactor accidents. The models are based on the health effects models developed originally by Harvard Universit...

A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal an...

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress mo...

... Descriptors : *MENTAL HEALTH, *MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC, RESPONSE, ACCIDENTS, RECORDS, QUESTIONNAIRES ...

This paper is concerned with the application of severe-accident codes to develop improved accident mitigation strategies for nuclear power plants employing boiling water reactors (BWRs). Specifically, the results of analyses using the APRIL.MOD3X code are presented for typical station blackout accidents. Issues discussed include the ...

Accident prediction models (APMs) have been extensively used in site ranking with the objective of identifying accident hotspots. Previously this has been achieved by using a univariate count data or a multivariate count data model (e.g. multivariate Poisson-lognormal) for ...

The report developes a mathematical model predicting the probability of occurrence of marine accidents and the potential damage resulting from transportation of hazardous cargo.

Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models

... Accession Number : AD0076063. Title : THE PREDICTION OF FLEET ACCIDENTS FROM TRAINING ACCIDENTS. Corporate ...

... 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Can Accidents be Predicted? An Empirical Test of the Cognitive None ... 15. NUMBER OF PAGES accidents! ...

... Accession Number : AD0076068. Title : THE PREDICTION OF AIRCRAFT ACCIDENTS BY INSTRUCTORS: PRELIMINARY FINDINGS. ...

While reliable estimates of expected accidents can be achieved by combining observed accidents and accident model predictions using an empirical Bayes approach, there are a number of obstacles to the widespread adoption of the method. This paper concentrates on problems associated with the ...

Page 1. Naval Health Research Center Intelligence and Accidents: ... Accidents and Intelligence Intelligence and Accidents: A Multilevel Model ...

Using computer analyses, subscale model tests, and selected full scale tests, it is possible to predict the structural behavior of 218 liter (55 gal) drums resulting from accident environments. This was verified by analyzing and testing DOT-17C drum array...

Full scale testing to date has verified that current analytical tools and the use of scale model testing are both accurate methods for predicting shipping cask response to severe accident conditions. The containers tested are capable of surviving severe transportation accidents.

A risk-based logic model is suggested as an appropriate basis for better predicting accident progression and ensuing source terms to the environment from process upset conditions in complex chemical process facilities. Under emergency conditions, decision...

This paper describes the analysis of the Three Mile Island-2 (TMI-2) standard problem that was performed with MELCOR. The MELCOR computer code is being developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the purpose of analyzing severe accident in nuclear power plants. The primary role of MELCOR is to provide realistic ...

A measurement-based method for predicting the response of an LMR core to unprotected accidents has been developed. The method processes plant measurements taken at normal operation to generate a stochastic model for the core dynamics. This model can be used to predict three sigma confidence ...

for closure of the dynamic equations of the ensemble-averaged, single-point, ..... Selection of the ensemble of aircraft accidents was discussed in Ref. 1. ...

This report summarizes the models used for predicting failure pressures and leak rates in unrepaired steam generator tubes with axial and circumferential cracks that developed under normal operation and design-basis accident conditions. A procedure for de...

"Accident Prevention. "Accident Mitigation. "Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling. Accident Prevention is attacking the issue of airplane accidents from ...

A flow stress model was developed for predicting failure of Electrosleeved PWR steam generator tubing under severe accident transients. The Electrosleeve, which is nanocrystalline pure nickel, loses its strength at temperatures greater than 400 C during severe accidents because of grain growth. A grain growth ...

Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees ...

Radiocesium contamination form the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied form 1990-1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit ...

A computer modeling code, CRIT8, was written to allow prediction of the radiological doses to workers and members of the public resulting from these postulated maximum-effect accidents. The code accounts for the relationships of the initial parent radionuclide inventory at the time of the accident to the growth of ...

In this paper, a simple analytical code, QUASAR, is developed to analyze the phenomena related to severe subassembly accidents, such as a total instantaneous blockage event for a subassembly inlet. The code models failed and neighboring subassemblies, focusing mainly on the thermal consequences and the propagation potential of the ...

In order to estimate the potential risks due to carbon fibers (CF) released from aircraft accidents, it was necessary to quantify the probability of an accident or incident at a major hub airport. This probability was contingent upon various conditions surrounding the incident including the phase of operation, aircraft type, and the weather conditions. The ...

A measurement-based method for predicting the response of an LMR core to unprotected accidents has been developed. The method processes plant measurements taken at normal operation to generate a stochastic model for the core dynamics. This model can be us...

A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes. Predicted ...

The increasingly sophisticated computer technology can provide an aid to more detailed insight into important facets of the accident process. Up to now, two major types of models have been acquired: (1) a highly sophisticated model, called VEDYAC, simulat...

This report briefly describes experimental validation of a computer model used to analyze LMFBR type core transients. This model is used to predict coolant, cladding, and fuel temperature distributions during transient overpower accidents. (JDH)

L. Hoffman, J. M. McDowd, P. Atchley, and R. A. Dubinsky (2005) reported that visual and attentional impairment (measured by the Useful Field of View test and DriverScan) and performance in a low-fidelity driving simulator did not predict self-reported accidents in the previous 3 years. The present study applied these data to predict ...

... Accession Number : AD0660122. Title : AN ATTEMPT TO PREDICT AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS AMONG AIR FORCE PERSONNEL,. ...

A preliminary model describing the effects of washout and runoff on the consequences of a nuclear reactor accident is presented. The most important new feature of this stratified model relative to the model in WASH-1400 is the spatial structure of rainstorms and runoff consisting of four levels of rain activity ...

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade ...

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks ...

The primary physical/chemical models that form the basis of the FASTGRASS mechanistic computer model for calculating fission-product release from nuclear fuel are described. Calculated results are compared with test data and the major mechanisms affecting the transport of fission products during steady-state and accident conditions are ...

... PHYSIOLOGY), MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PROTECTION, INSTRUMENTATION, MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS, AVIATION ACCIDENTS ...

The report details a catastrophe theory model of the accident process with empirical validation. According to the cusp model, two distinct levels of risk can be observed for a distribution of group accident rates, one at 0.0 Occupational Safety and Health Association (OSHA)-reportable accidents ...

Work has been performed to develop a Three Mile Island Unit-2 (TMI-2) simulation model for MELPROG/TRAC capable of predicting the observed plant behavior that took place during the accident of March 1979. A description of the TMI-2 plant model is presented and calculation results through 174 min of the ...

Safety levels at highway/rail interfaces continue to be of major concern despite an ever-increasing focus on improved design and appurtenance application practices. Despite the encouraging trend towards improved safety, accident frequencies remain high, many of which result in fatalities. More than half of these accidents occur at public crossings, where ...

Contents - Theoretical analysis and models: What happens as a rule - Communication between designers and road users; A framework for the prediction of user feedback to road safety measures; Driver attitudes and traffic accidents: What is the relationship ...

Accurate predictions for the normal, off-normal or accident conditions are required for the safety analysis to evaluate the plant safety. Safety analysis computer codes such as IANUS, DEMO have been specifically developed for the Fast Flux Test Facility, ...

One-dimensional flame models are often used to predict the pressure transients caused by hydrogen combustion in containments during postulated severe accidents. In the absence of data, these models account for prevailing flame acceleration mechanisms, suc...

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution ...

This paper describes a personal computer-based program (GENSOR) that utilizes a simplified time-dependent approach for predicting the radionuclide releases during postulated reactor accidents. This interactive computer program allows the user to generate simplified source terms based on those severe accident attributes that most ...

We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. ...

The direct Containment Heating (DCH) calculations require that the transient rate at which the melt is ejected from the reactor cavity during hypothetical pressurized melt ejection accident scenarios be calculated. However, at present no models, that are able to predict the available melt dispersal data from small scale reactor cavity ...

This work explores the hypothesis that Service Difficulty Reports (SDR - primarily inspection reports) are related to Accident Incident Data System (AIDS - reports primarily compiled from National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident investigations). This work sought and found relations between equipment operability reported in the SDR and aviation ...

Statistical procedures are developed to estimate accident occurrence rates from historical event records, to predict future rates and trends, and to estimate the accuracy of the rate estimates and predictions. Maximum likelihood estimation is applied to several learning models, and results are compared to earlier ...

Assessment of the environmental consequences of an accident in a fuel cycle facility ultimately involves calculating the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials and estimating the radiation dose to the surrounding population. Some uncertainty lies in the estimate of the nuclear facility source term to be used for atmospheric dispersion calculations. The developed ...

A modelling approach was used to predict doses from a large area deposition of (sup 137)Cs over southern and central Finland. The assumed deposition profile and quantity were both similar to those resulting from the Chernobyl accident. In the study, doses...

The knowledge of the leakage behavior of containments beyond design conditions is required for evaluation of severe accident mitigation strategies, risk studies, emergency preparedness, planning and siting. Strategies for managing these severe accidents will be severely hampered unless a methodology for predicting the timing, mode, and ...

The MELCOR code, developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a fully integrated, relatively fast-running code that models the progression of severe accidents in commercial light water nuclear power plants (NPPs).A specific station blackout (SBO) accident for Kuosheng (BWR-6) NPP is simulated using the MELCOR 1.8.4 code. The MELCOR ...

The chemical thermodynamic properties of the actinide oxides have long been of interest for nuclear fuel design and for predicting fuel behavior under accident conditions. The result of such interest has been the publication of many studies over several d...

TR-1 is a 1 MW pool-type research reactor. A simulation of TR-1 was attempted in order to predict the values and the variations of principal parameters during the normal and accident conditions. A model based on point kinetics was developed and the variat...

The perceptions of risks (e.g., diseases, accidents, natural hazards) is investigated using a multi-task, multi-model approach. We studied the proximities among 18 risks induced by three tasks: judgment of similarity, conditional prediction and dimensiona...

The research includes experiments to simulate the phenomenology of the accident conditions and the development of analytical models, verified by experiment, which can be use to predict reactor and safety systems performance and behavior under abnormal con...

Many self-heating accidents with energetic materials have occurred when operations that have been done safely on a small scale are attempted on a larger scale. They have also occurred when a material is heated for a longer time or to a higher temperature ...

The SIMMER-II calculation of the system kinetic energy developed during a voided core postdisassembly expansion in a hypothetical loss of flow accident sequence gives results which are more than an order of magnitude below that for an ideal expansion. Thi...

The report presents analyses of police accident reports, fire department run reports and other data on motor vehicle collision fires and submergences. Analytical modeling and other analytical techniques are provided for predicting escape times from passen...

Wire connections in a reactor containment generally are made by means of many hundreds of insulating blocks (terminal blocks) which are protected by metal boxes. A model was developed which predicts, within an error factor of 2, the probability of an elec...

During the space shuttle return-to-flight preparations following the Columbia accident, finite element models were needed that could predict the threshold of critical damage to the orbiter's wing leading edge from ice debris impacts. Hence, an experimenta...

We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the mod...

A model has been developed which predicts the radiological consequences of the transportation of radioactive material in and around urban environments. This discussion of the model includes discussion of the following general topics: health effects from radiation exposure, urban area characterization, computation of dose resulting from ...

According to models used to predict health effects of fission products enter the human body, a large number of fatalities, malignancies, thyroid cancer, born (genetic) defects,...etc.. But the actual data after Chernobyl and TMI accidents, and nuclear detonations in USA and Marshal Islands, were not consistent with these ...

... Descriptors : *NAVAL AIRCRAFT, *AVIATION ACCIDENTS, THESES, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, HELICOPTERS, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION ...

... will save approximately 210 lives a year ... In general this standard will be ... ACCIDENT INVESTIGATIONS, STANDARDS, SURVIVAL(PERSONNEL). ...

Modeling, code development, and accident analysis work on the modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems concentrated on predictions of core and other system temperature histories for postulated long-term loss of forced circulation acciden...

We present a new generalized model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data of the accident rate in all Spanish companies over eleven years (7,519,732 accidents), we classified them in a new risk-injury contingency table (19�19). ...

In the thirty-odd years that core-disruptive accidents have been analyzed, great advances have been made both in understanding the physical phenomena involved and in development of computational techniques to deal with them. More realistic modeling has tended to reduce predicted accident consequences. Some safety ...

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early health consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants as a function of the emergency response parameters has been performed using a probabilistic consequence assessment code. The importance of various emergency response parameters in predicting the consequences for a range of ...

From international nuclear industries fair; Basel, Switzerland (16 Oct 1972). The current analytical techniques for the prediction of the plant dynamic behavior during a loss-of-coolant accident in pressurized water reactors are inadequate. More sophisticated approaches, needed for the plant safety evaluation, require prohibitively large amount ...

A synthetic model of scheduled-commercial U.S. aviation fatalities was constructed from linear combinations of the time-spectra of critical systems reporting using 5.5 years of Service Difficulty Reports (SDR){sup 2} and Accident Incident Data System (AIDS) records{sup 3}. This model, used to predict near-future ...

The removal of aerosol particles and iodine in the containment vessel of an HTGR following a loss-of-coolant accident was examined for two hypothetical accidents; the Design Basis Depressurization Accident (DBDA) and the Maximum Hypothetical Fission Product Release (MHFPR). Current containment cleanup system designs and others were ...

Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of ...

Although several studies have used logit or probit models and their variants to fit data of accident severity on roadway segments, few have investigated accident severity at a railroad grade crossing (RGC). Compared to accident risk analysis in terms of accident frequency and severity of a ...

Although several studies have used logit or probit models and their variants to fit data of accident severity on roadway segments, few have investigated accident severity at a railroad grade crossing (RGC). Compared to accident risk analysis in terms of accident frequency and severity of a ...

Prediction of the behavior of LWR fuel rods and fission products under off-normal and accident conditions requires a physically realistic description of fuel swelling and fission-product release that currently does not exist. To satisfy this need, a program was initiated at ANL approximately a year ago with the prime objective of developing a ...