Sample records for accident risk forecasting

  1. A novel grey-fuzzy-Markov and pattern recognition model for industrial accident forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edem, Inyeneobong Ekoi; Oke, Sunday Ayoola; Adebiyi, Kazeem Adekunle

    2017-10-01

    Industrial forecasting is a top-echelon research domain, which has over the past several years experienced highly provocative research discussions. The scope of this research domain continues to expand due to the continuous knowledge ignition motivated by scholars in the area. So, more intelligent and intellectual contributions on current research issues in the accident domain will potentially spark more lively academic, value-added discussions that will be of practical significance to members of the safety community. In this communication, a new grey-fuzzy-Markov time series model, developed from nondifferential grey interval analytical framework has been presented for the first time. This instrument forecasts future accident occurrences under time-invariance assumption. The actual contribution made in the article is to recognise accident occurrence patterns and decompose them into grey state principal pattern components. The architectural framework of the developed grey-fuzzy-Markov pattern recognition (GFMAPR) model has four stages: fuzzification, smoothening, defuzzification and whitenisation. The results of application of the developed novel model signify that forecasting could be effectively carried out under uncertain conditions and hence, positions the model as a distinctly superior tool for accident forecasting investigations. The novelty of the work lies in the capability of the model in making highly accurate predictions and forecasts based on the availability of small or incomplete accident data.

  2. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    PubMed

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  3. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  4. Avalanche risk in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2014-08-01

    In Switzerland, the vast majority of avalanche accidents occurs during recreational activities. Risk analysis studies mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e. how many and where people are recreating. We compared the accident data (backcountry touring) with reports from two social media mountaineering networks - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. On these websites, users reported more than 15 000 backcountry tours during the five winters 2009/2010 to 2013/2014. We noted similar patterns in avalanche accident data and user data like demographics of recreationists, distribution of the day of the week (weekday vs. weekend) or weather conditions (fine vs. poor weather). However, we also found differences such as the avalanche danger conditions on days with activities and accidents, but also the geographic distribution. While backcountry activities are concentrated in proximity to the main population centres in the West and North of the Swiss Alps, a large proportion of the severe avalanche accidents occurred in the inner-alpine, more continental regions with frequently unfavorably snowpack structure. This suggests that even greater emphasis should be put on the type of avalanche problem in avalanche education and avalanche forecasting to increase the safety of backcountry recreationists.

  5. Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

    2017-11-01

    The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

  6. A Novel Multilevel-SVD Method to Improve Multistep Ahead Forecasting in Traffic Accidents Domain.

    PubMed

    Barba, Lida; Rodríguez, Nibaldo

    2017-01-01

    Here is proposed a novel method for decomposing a nonstationary time series in components of low and high frequency. The method is based on Multilevel Singular Value Decomposition (MSVD) of a Hankel matrix. The decomposition is used to improve the forecasting accuracy of Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) linear and nonlinear models. Three time series coming from traffic accidents domain are used. They represent the number of persons with injuries in traffic accidents of Santiago, Chile. The data were continuously collected by the Chilean Police and were weekly sampled from 2000:1 to 2014:12. The performance of MSVD is compared with the decomposition in components of low and high frequency of a commonly accepted method based on Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT). SWT in conjunction with the Autoregressive model (SWT + MIMO-AR) and SWT in conjunction with an Autoregressive Neural Network (SWT + MIMO-ANN) were evaluated. The empirical results have shown that the best accuracy was achieved by the forecasting model based on the proposed decomposition method MSVD, in comparison with the forecasting models based on SWT.

  7. A Novel Multilevel-SVD Method to Improve Multistep Ahead Forecasting in Traffic Accidents Domain

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez, Nibaldo

    2017-01-01

    Here is proposed a novel method for decomposing a nonstationary time series in components of low and high frequency. The method is based on Multilevel Singular Value Decomposition (MSVD) of a Hankel matrix. The decomposition is used to improve the forecasting accuracy of Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) linear and nonlinear models. Three time series coming from traffic accidents domain are used. They represent the number of persons with injuries in traffic accidents of Santiago, Chile. The data were continuously collected by the Chilean Police and were weekly sampled from 2000:1 to 2014:12. The performance of MSVD is compared with the decomposition in components of low and high frequency of a commonly accepted method based on Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT). SWT in conjunction with the Autoregressive model (SWT + MIMO-AR) and SWT in conjunction with an Autoregressive Neural Network (SWT + MIMO-ANN) were evaluated. The empirical results have shown that the best accuracy was achieved by the forecasting model based on the proposed decomposition method MSVD, in comparison with the forecasting models based on SWT. PMID:28261267

  8. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  9. Forecasting the Risks of Pollution from Ships along the Portuguese Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, Rodrigo; Neves, Ramiro; Lourenço, Filipe; Braunschweig, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Pollution risks in coastal and marine environments are in general based in a static approach, considering historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. This approach is quite important in a planning stage. However, an alternative approach can be studied, due to the latest implementation of several different real-time monitoring tools as well as faster performances in the generation of numerical forecasts for metocean properties and trajectories of pollutants spilt at sea or costal zones. These developments provide the possibility of developing an integrated support system for better decision-making in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks. An innovative methodology to dynamically produce quantified risks in real-time, integrating best available information from numerical forecasts and the existing monitoring tools, has been developed and applied to the Portuguese Coast. The developed system provides coastal pollution risk levels associated to potential (or real) oil spill incidents from ship collision, grounding or foundering, taking into account regional statistic information on vessel accidents and coastal sensitivity indexes, real-time vessel information (positioning, cargo type, speed and vessel type) obtained from AIS, best-available metocean numerical forecasts (hydrodynamics, meteorology - including visibility, wave conditions) and simulated scenarios by the oil spill fate and behaviour component of MOHID Water Modelling System. Different spill fate and behaviour simulations are continuously generated and processed in background (assuming hypothetical spills from vessels), based on variable vessel information and metocean conditions. Results from these simulations are used in the quantification of consequences of potential spills. All historic information is continuously stored in a database (for risk analysis at a later stage). This dynamic approach improves the accuracy in quantification of consequences to the shoreline

  10. Risk of accidents in drivers with epilepsy.

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, J; Chadwick, D; Johnson, T

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To estimate the risks of road traffic accidents over a period of three years in drivers with a history of single seizures or epilepsy, and to compare them with a cohort of drivers followed up by the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL). DESIGN--A retrospective survey of driving and accident experience by self-completion questionnaire. SUBJECTS--16,958 drivers with a previous history of epilepsy responding to the survey and 8888 non-epileptic drivers responding to a TRL survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The risk of any accident, any accident producing an injury, and any accident producing a serious injury, over a three year period. RESULTS--After adjustment for differences in age, sex, driving experience, and mileage between the two populations there was no evidence of any overall increase in risk of accidents in the population of drivers with a history of epilepsy. However, there was evidence of an increased risk of more severe accidents in the population with epilepsy. The risk was increased by about 40% for serious injuries and there was evidence of a twofold risk of increase in non-driver fatalities. These increases seem largely explicable by the occurrence of seizures in this population during the three years of driving that the survey covered. CONCLUSIONS--The acceptability of driving for people with a history of epilepsy should be determined by an acceptable risk of accidents resulting in injury or serious injury rather than overall accident rates. As people with epilepsy can now drive after a 12 month seizure free period rather than the required two year period when this survey was undertaken, it is important to ascertain whether there is any increased risk of injury associated accidents with this policy. PMID:8648327

  11. Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood

  12. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  13. Risk factors for injury accidents among moped and motorcycle riders.

    PubMed

    Moskal, Aurélie; Martin, Jean-Louis; Laumon, Bernard

    2012-11-01

    To study and quantify the effect of factors related to the riders of powered two-wheelers on the risk of injury accident involvement. Based on national data held by the police from 1996 to 2005, we conducted a case-control study with responsibility for the accident as the event of interest. We estimated the odds ratios for accident responsibility. Making the hypothesis that the non-responsible riders in the study are representative of all the riders on the road, we thus identified risk factors for being responsible for injury accidents. The studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, validity of the subject's driving licence and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Moped and motorcycle riders are analyzed separately, adjusting for the main characteristics of the accident. For both moped and motorcycle riders, being male, not wearing a helmet, exceeding the legal limit for alcohol and travelling for leisure purposes increased the risk of accident involvement. The youngest and oldest users had a greater risk of accident involvement. The largest risk factor was alcohol, and we identified a dose-effect relationship between alcohol consumption and accident risk, with an estimated odds ratio of over 10 for motorcycle and moped riders with a BAC of 2 g/l or over. Among motorcycle users, riders without a licence had twice the risk of being involved in an accident than those holding a valid licence. However, the number of years the rider had held a licence reduced the risk of accident involvement. One difference between moped and motorcycle riders involved the presence of a passenger on the vehicle: while carrying a passenger increased the risk of being responsible for the accident among moped riders, it protected against this risk among motorcycle riders. This analysis of responsibility has identified the major factors contributing to excess risk of injury accidents, some of which could be

  14. Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

    2004-07-01

    This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

  15. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

    PubMed

    Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2017-09-01

    This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

  16. Smoothing strategies combined with ARIMA and neural networks to improve the forecasting of traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Barba, Lida; Rodríguez, Nibaldo; Montt, Cecilia

    2014-01-01

    Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs) models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD). In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO) learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP) learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0:26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1:12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15:51%.

  17. Marine ecological risk assessment methods for radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Ye, Sufen; Zhang, Luoping; Feng, Huan

    2017-12-01

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool that can be used to analyze potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts. With the rapid development of nuclear power plants in coastal areas around the world, the establishment of approaches and methodologies for marine ERA with a focus on radiation accidents is an urgent requirement for marine environmental management. In this study, the approaches and methodologies for ERA pertaining to marine radiation accidents (MRA) are discussed and summarized with applications in case studies, such as the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, and a hypothetical accident in Daya Bay, China. The concepts of ERA and Risk Degree of ERA on MRA are defined for the first time to optimize the ERA system. The results of case studies show that the ERA approach and methodology for MRA are scientifically sound and effective in both the early and late stage of MRAs along with classic ERA Approach and the ERICA Integrated Approach. The results can be useful in the decision-making processes and the risk management at the beginning of accident as well as the ecological restoration after the accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Accident frequency and unrealistic optimism: Children's assessment of risk.

    PubMed

    Joshi, Mary Sissons; Maclean, Morag; Stevens, Claire

    2018-02-01

    Accidental injury is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among children, warranting research on their risk perceptions. Three hundred and seven children aged 10-11 years assessed the frequency, danger and personal risk likelihood of 8 accidents. Two social-cognitive biases were manifested. The frequency of rare accidents (e.g. drowning) was overestimated, and the frequency of common accidents (e.g. bike accidents) underestimated; and the majority of children showed unrealistic optimism tending to see themselves as less likely to suffer these accidents in comparison to their peers, offering superior skills or parental control of the environment as an explanation. In the case of pedestrian accidents, children recognised their seriousness, underestimated the frequency of this risk and regarded their own road crossing skill as protection. These findings highlight the challenging task facing safety educators who, when teaching conventional safety knowledge and routines, also need to alert children to the danger of over-confidence without disabling them though fear. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

    2016-12-01

    Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

  20. Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

    PubMed

    Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

    2018-08-01

    Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Forecasting risk of bankruptcy for machine-building plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telipenko, E.; Zakharova, A.; Sopova, Svetlana

    2015-09-01

    The paper presents an overview of well-known bankruptcy risk forecasting models, elaborated as by Russian so by foreign authors, on the basis of the data about financial and business activities of the biggest machine-building Russian plants. The authors substantiate and confirm appropriateness of a fuzzy set model to the problem of bankruptcy risk forecasting. This model is worked out on the basis of 10 most important factors, which have the greatest influence on sales proceeds as the main financial source for a production plant.

  2. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  3. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  4. Smoothing Strategies Combined with ARIMA and Neural Networks to Improve the Forecasting of Traffic Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez, Nibaldo

    2014-01-01

    Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs) models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD). In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO) learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP) learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0 : 26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1 : 12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15 : 51%. PMID:25243200

  5. Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2014-12-01

    Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  6. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  7. Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

  8. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2013-01-01

    [1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  9. Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

    PubMed

    Rickard, Laura N

    2014-03-01

    Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. A new method for assessing the risk of accident associated with darkness.

    PubMed

    Johansson, Osten; Wanvik, Per Ole; Elvik, Rune

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a new method for assessing the risk of accidents associated with darkness. The method estimates the risk of accident associated with darkness in terms of an odds ratio, which is defined as follows: [(number of accidents in darkness in a given hour of the day)/(number of accidents in daylight in the same hour of the day)]/[(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is dark)/(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is in daylight)]. This estimate of the risk of accident associated with darkness does not require data on exposure, but relies on the count of accidents in the same pair of hours throughout the year. One of the hours is dark part of the year, but has daylight the rest of the year. The comparison hour, which has daylight the whole year, is used to control for seasonal variations. The aim of relying on the same pair of hours throughout the year is to minimise the influence of potentially confounding factors. Estimates of the risk of injury accidents associated with darkness are developed on the basis of accident data for Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands. It is found that the risk of an injury accident increases by nearly 30% in darkness in urban areas, by nearly 50% in rural areas, and by about 40% for urban and rural areas combined (adjusted estimate).

  11. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  12. Aftereffect Calculation and Prediction of Methanol Tank Leak’s Environmental Risk Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lang, Yueting; Zheng, Lina; Chen, Henan; Wang, Qiushi; Jiang, Hui; Pan, Yiwen

    2018-01-01

    With the increasing frequency of environmental risk accidents, more emphasis was placed on environmental risk assessment. In this article, the aftermath of an Environmental Risk Accident on Methanol Tank Leakage occurred on a cryogenic unit area in a certain oilfield processing plant have been mainly calculated and predicted. Major hazards were identified through the major hazards identification on dangerous chemicals, which could afterwards analyze maximum credible accident and confirm source item and the source intensity. In the end, the consequence of the accident has been calculated so that the impact on surrounding environment can be predicted after the accident.

  13. Effects of driver nationality and road characteristics on accident fault risk.

    PubMed

    Yannis, George; Golias, John; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

    2007-09-01

    This paper investigates the combined effect of driver nationality and several road characteristics (area type, at or not at junction, lighting conditions) on accident fault risk. Data from the national accident database of Greece are used to calculate accident relative fault risk rates under induced exposure assumptions. A log-linear analysis is then used to examine first- and higher-order effects within three or more variable groups. The examination of the second-order interaction among the accident fault risks of various driver nationalities at or not at junction was found to be significant. On the contrary, the respective combined effects of area type and lighting conditions were found to be non-significant. It was also shown that roadway features do not affect accident fault risk in a combined way. Results clearly indicate that foreign drivers in Greece are at increased risk. Moreover, foreign nationalities corresponding to permanent residents (i.e. Greeks and Albanians) appear to be at lower fault risk compared to foreign nationalities corresponding to tourists and visitors (e.g. EU Nationals). The effects of the various road characteristics do not modify these general trends.

  14. Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

    PubMed Central

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

  15. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

  16. Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

    PubMed

    Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric andmore » biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.« less

  18. Benzodiazepine-like hypnotics and the associated risk of road traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Orriols, L; Philip, P; Moore, N; Castot, A; Gadegbeku, B; Delorme, B; Mallaret, M; Lagarde, E

    2011-04-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the association between the use of benzodiazepine or benzodiazepine-like hypnotics and the risk of road traffic accidents. Data from three French national databases were matched: the health-care insurance database, police reports, and the police database of injury-related traffic accidents. A total of 72,685 drivers involved in injury-related road traffic accidents in France, from 2005 to 2008, were included in the study. The risk of being responsible for a traffic accident was higher in users of benzodiazepine hypnotics (odds ratio (OR) = 1.39 (1.08-1.79)) and in the 155 drivers to whom a dosage of more than one pill of zolpidem a day had been dispensed during the 5 months before the collision (OR = 2.46 (1.70-3.56)). No association was found between the use of zopiclone and risk of traffic accidents. Although this study did not find any association between the use of zolpidem as recommended and causation of traffic accidents, the potential risk related to possible abuse of the drug and risky driving behaviors should be further investigated. The results related to benzodiazepine hypnotics are consistent with those of previous studies.

  19. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  20. Sleep Apnea Related Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents is Reduced by Continuous Positive Airway Pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry Data

    PubMed Central

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. Design: MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Setting: Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). Patients: There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. Interventions: CPAP. Measurements and Results: The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P < 0.001). Estimated excess accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65–80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤ 5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). Conclusions: The motor vehicle accident risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. Citation: Karimi M, Hedner J, Häbel H, Nerman O, Grote L. Sleep apnea related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish traffic accident registry data. SLEEP 2015;38(3):341–349. PMID

  1. Sleepy driver near-misses may predict accident risks.

    PubMed

    Powell, Nelson B; Schechtman, Kenneth B; Riley, Robert W; Guilleminault, Christian; Chiang, Rayleigh Ping-ying; Weaver, Edward M

    2007-03-01

    To quantify the prevalence of self-reported near-miss sleepy driving accidents and their association with self-reported actual driving accidents. A prospective cross-sectional internet-linked survey on driving behaviors. Dateline NBC News website. Results are given on 35,217 (88% of sample) individuals with a mean age of 37.2 +/- 13 years, 54.8% women, and 87% white. The risk of at least one accident increased monotonically from 23.2% if there were no near-miss sleepy accidents to 44.5% if there were > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). After covariate adjustments, subjects who reported at least one near-miss sleepy accident were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.16) times as likely to have reported at least one actual accident as subjects reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). The odds of reporting at least one actual accident in those reporting > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents as compared to those reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents was 1.87 (95% CI, 1.64 to 2.14). Furthermore, after adjustments, the summary Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score had an independent association with having a near-miss or actual accident. An increase of 1 unit of ESS was associated with a covariate adjusted 4.4% increase of having at least one accident (P < 0.0001). A statistically significant dose-response was seen between the numbers of self-reported sleepy near-miss accidents and an actual accident. These findings suggest that sleepy near-misses may be dangerous precursors to an actual accident.

  2. Risk Communication as a Tool for Training Apprentice Welders: A Study about Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Severo, Luana de Oliveira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Turik, Claudia

    2012-01-01

    The present study has aimed to identify the perceptions of apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed; identify types of occupational accidents involving apprentice welders; and report the development of a socioenvironmental education intervention as a tool for risk communication for apprentice welders. A quantitative study was performed with 161 apprentice welders in Southern Brazil in 2011. Data collection was performed via structured interviews with the apprentice welders about risk perception, occupational accidents, and time experienced in welding. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.9%), chemical (95%), physiological (86.3%), and biological (51.5%). In this sample, 39.7% of apprentice welders reported occupational accidents and 27.3% reported burning. The inferential analysis showed that the frequency of risk perception factors increases with the length of experience, and apprentice welders who have experienced accidents during welding activity perceive a higher amount of risk factors than those who have never experienced them. It is concluded that apprentice welders perceive risks and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their activity. PMID:23326211

  3. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models.

    PubMed

    Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

    2006-02-01

    Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic

  5. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  6. Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

    PubMed

    Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

    2010-10-01

    In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe

  7. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    PubMed

    Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  8. Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Myers, M. F.; Rogers, D. J.; Cox, J.; Flahault, A.; Hay, S. I.

    2000-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

  9. Forecasting Disease Risk for Increased Epidemic Preparedness in Public Health

    PubMed Central

    Myers, M.F.; Rogers, D.J.; Cox, J.; Flahault, A.; Hay, S.I.

    2011-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world’s epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector–environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development. PMID:10997211

  10. Spatial forecasting of disease risk and uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    De Cola, L.

    2002-01-01

    Because maps typically represent the value of a single variable over 2-dimensional space, cartographers must simplify the display of multiscale complexity, temporal dynamics, and underlying uncertainty. A choropleth disease risk map based on data for polygonal regions might depict incidence (cases per 100,000 people) within each polygon for a year but ignore the uncertainty that results from finer-scale variation, generalization, misreporting, small numbers, and future unknowns. In response to such limitations, this paper reports on the bivariate mapping of data "quantity" and "quality" of Lyme disease forecasts for states of the United States. Historical state data for 1990-2000 are used in an autoregressive model to forecast 2001-2010 disease incidence and a probability index of confidence, each of which is then kriged to provide two spatial grids representing continuous values over the nation. A single bivariate map is produced from the combination of the incidence grid (using a blue-to-red hue spectrum), and a probabilistic confidence grid (used to control the saturation of the hue at each grid cell). The resultant maps are easily interpretable, and the approach may be applied to such problems as detecting unusual disease occurences, visualizing past and future incidence, and assembling a consistent regional disease atlas showing patterns of forecasted risks in light of probabilistic confidence.

  11. Public awareness of home accident risks--some implications for health promotion.

    PubMed Central

    Bryce, G; Fakher, N

    1992-01-01

    Through daily contact with injured people there was a feeling that most people are sufficiently aware of the dangers in specific risk factor activities, but were not fully aware that they could do a lot to prevent harm coming upon themselves. This paper describes the results of a self-administered questionnaire about the accidents people suffered at home, their level of awareness of the risk they were undertaking, whether they had had a similar accident before, what they think the recovery period from their injury is likely to be and knowledge of, and accidents involving, 17 generally known risk activities. The results confirm that most people are indeed aware of dangers yet a large number still have accidents in spite of that. The results also indicate that campaigns advising people how to avoid these dangers could be successful. PMID:1388501

  12. A Case-Control Study Estimating Accident Risk for Alcohol, Medicines and Illegal Drugs

    PubMed Central

    Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

    2012-01-01

    Background The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. Methods A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Results Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. Conclusion The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope. PMID:22952694

  13. Helmet use and risk compensation in motorcycle accidents.

    PubMed

    Ouellet, James V

    2011-02-01

    The "risk compensation" hypothesis suggests that individuals offset perceived gains in safety by increasing their risk-taking behavior to maintain a stable or "homeostatic" level of risk. If this is true for motorcyclists, then helmet use, which reduces the risk of brain injury and death, may lead helmet users to take more risks when they ride. Thus, increased risk-taking by helmet users should show up as overrepresentation in crashes, and accident reconstruction should reveal risky behaviors in the seconds just before the crash. This article examines data from two separate studies involving the on-scene, in-depth investigation and reconstruction of motorcycle crashes: 900 in Los Angeles (1976-1977) and another 1082 in Thailand (1999-2000). Each crash was investigated on scene within minutes of its occurrence by teams of specially trained researchers and later reconstructed in order to identify precrash and crash events, verify helmet use/nonuse, etc. "Exposure" data on helmet use and other readily visible factors were also collected for the population-at-risk by observing riders who passed by each accident scene some time after a crash that had been investigated by the team. In this article, helmeted and unhelmeted accident-involved riders are compared to each other as well as to the population-at-risk. In Thailand, helmeted riders did not differ significantly from unhelmeted riders in alcohol use, precrash speed, being the primary or sole cause of the crash, or unsafe speed or lane positioning for the traffic conditions; they were no more likely to be in a single-vehicle accident, to crash by running off the road, or to lose control. In Los Angeles, drinking riders were half as likely to wear a helmet as nondrinkers. However, when drinkers and nondrinkers were segregated, helmeted riders were no more likely to cause their crash, run stop signs or red lights, commit other traffic code violations, or run off the road. They did not differ in speed or single

  14. Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

    2017-12-01

    During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for

  15. Sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing in truck drivers : risk analysis of road accidents.

    PubMed

    Catarino, Rosa; Spratley, Jorge; Catarino, Isabel; Lunet, Nuno; Pais-Clemente, Manuel

    2014-03-01

    Portugal has one of the highest road traffic fatality rates in Europe. A clear association between sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and traffic accidents has been previously demonstrated. This study aimed to determine prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and other sleep disorder symptoms among truck drivers and to identify which individual traits and work habits are associated to increased sleepiness and accident risk. We evaluated a sample of 714 truck drivers using a questionnaire (244 face-to-face interviews, 470 self-administered) that included sociodemographic data, personal habits, previous accidents, Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and the Berlin questionnaire (BQ). Twenty percent of drivers had EDS and 29 % were at high risk for having obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Two hundred sixty-one drivers (36.6 %) reported near-miss accidents (42.5 % sleep related) and 264 (37.0 %), a driving accident (16.3 % sleep related). ESS score ≥ 11 was a risk factor for both near-miss accidents (odds ratio (OR)=3.84, p<0.01) and accidents (OR=2.25, p<0.01). Antidepressant use was related to accidents (OR=3.30, p=0.03). We found an association between high Mallampati score (III-IV) and near misses (OR=1.89, p=0.04). In this sample of Portuguese truck drivers, we observed a high prevalence of EDS and other sleep disorder symptoms. Accident risk was related to sleepiness and antidepressant use. Identifying drivers at risk for OSAS should be a major priority of medical assessment centers, as a public safety policy.

  16. Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Chen, Guanghan

    2013-10-01

    With the recent economic boom in China, vehicle volume and the number of traffic accident fatalities have become the highest in the world. Meanwhile, traffic accidents have become the leading cause of death in China. Systematically analyzing road safety data from different perspectives and applying empirical methods/implementing proper measures to reduce the fatality rate will be an urgent and challenging task for China in the coming years. In this study, we analyze the traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report, are the only officially available and reliable source of traffic accident data (with a sample size>7000 per year). In particular, we focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity. Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered. First, the results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. An immediate implication is: if the traffic violation rate could be reduced or controlled successfully, then the rate of serious injuries and fatalities would be reduced accordingly. Second, specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined. Accordingly, to reduce traffic accident incidence and fatality rates, measures such as traffic regulations and legislation-targeting different vehicle types/driver groups with respect to the various human, vehicle and environment risk factors-are needed. Such measures could include road safety programs for targeted driver groups, focused enforcement of traffic regulations and road/transport facility improvements. Data analysis results arising from this study will shed lights on the development of similar (adjusted) measures to reduce traffic violations and/or accident fatalities and injuries, and to promote road safety in other regions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All

  17. Managing major chemical accidents in China: towards effective risk information.

    PubMed

    He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong; Mol, Arthur P J

    2011-03-15

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major contributor to environmental and health risks in China. This calls for the establishment of an effective chemical risk management system, which requires reliable, accurate and comprehensive data in the first place. However, the current chemical accident-related data system is highly fragmented and incomplete, as different responsible authorities adopt different data collection standards and procedures for different purposes. In building a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, this article: (i) reviews and assesses the existing data sources and data management, (ii) analyzes data on 976 recorded major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 years, and (iii) identifies the improvements required for developing integrated risk management in China. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. [Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

    2000-09-09

    A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

  19. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  20. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  1. Evaluation of Traffic Accident Risk in In-City Bus Drivers: The Use of Berlin Questionnaire

    PubMed Central

    Ekren, Pervin Korkmaz; Uysal, Funda Elmas; Başoğlu, Özen K.

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Traffic accidents associated with high mortality rate may produce serious problems especially in highways. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with a high risk for traffic accidents due to excessive daytime sleepiness even in in-city drivers. In the present study, it was aimed to evaluate the rate of OSA symptoms and to identify risk factors associated with traffic accidents in in-city bus drivers. MATERIAL AND METHODS A self-administered questionnaire including demographic and anthropometric features, sleep and work schedules, Berlin questionnaire, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), and history of traffic accidents was used. RESULTS The questionnaire was conducted for 1400 male bus drivers (mean age, 38.0±6.4 y, body mass index, 27.8±3.9 kg/m2). A total of 1058 (75.6%) drivers had one or more accidents while driving bus. According to the Berlin questionnaire, 176 (12.6%) drivers were found to have high OSA risk and the accident rate was 83.0% in high-risk group, whereas 74.5% of low-risk drivers had accidents (p=0.043). The drivers with a history of traffic accident were older (p=0.030), had higher ESS (p=0.019), and were more in the high-risk OSA group according to the Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). In multivariate linear regression analysis, traffic accident was associated with only Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). CONCLUSION The present results support that city bus drivers with high OSA risk according to Berlin questionnaire have increased accident rates. Therefore, we suggest using Berlin questionnaire for screening sleep apnea not only in highway drivers but also in in-city bus drivers. PMID:29755810

  2. Evaluation of Traffic Accident Risk in In-City Bus Drivers: The Use of Berlin Questionnaire.

    PubMed

    Taşbakan, Mehmet Sezai; Ekren, Pervin Korkmaz; Uysal, Funda Elmas; Başoğlu, Özen K

    2018-04-01

    Traffic accidents associated with high mortality rate may produce serious problems especially in highways. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with a high risk for traffic accidents due to excessive daytime sleepiness even in in-city drivers. In the present study, it was aimed to evaluate the rate of OSA symptoms and to identify risk factors associated with traffic accidents in in-city bus drivers. A self-administered questionnaire including demographic and anthropometric features, sleep and work schedules, Berlin questionnaire, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), and history of traffic accidents was used. The questionnaire was conducted for 1400 male bus drivers (mean age, 38.0±6.4 y, body mass index, 27.8±3.9 kg/m 2 ). A total of 1058 (75.6%) drivers had one or more accidents while driving bus. According to the Berlin questionnaire, 176 (12.6%) drivers were found to have high OSA risk and the accident rate was 83.0% in high-risk group, whereas 74.5% of low-risk drivers had accidents (p=0.043). The drivers with a history of traffic accident were older (p=0.030), had higher ESS (p=0.019), and were more in the high-risk OSA group according to the Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). In multivariate linear regression analysis, traffic accident was associated with only Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). The present results support that city bus drivers with high OSA risk according to Berlin questionnaire have increased accident rates. Therefore, we suggest using Berlin questionnaire for screening sleep apnea not only in highway drivers but also in in-city bus drivers.

  3. Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

    PubMed

    Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

    2007-11-01

    Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

  4. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2011-11-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  5. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, D.; Lelieveld, J.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90 % of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50 % beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  6. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  7. Exchangeability, extreme returns and Value-at-Risk forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chun-Kai; North, Delia; Zewotir, Temesgen

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to extreme value modelling for the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR). In particular, the block maxima and the peaks-over-threshold methods are generalised to exchangeable random sequences. This caters for the dependencies, such as serial autocorrelation, of financial returns observed empirically. In addition, this approach allows for parameter variations within each VaR estimation window. Empirical prior distributions of the extreme value parameters are attained by using resampling procedures. We compare the results of our VaR forecasts to that of the unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach and the conditional GARCH-EVT model for robust conclusions.

  8. Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

  9. Sleep apnea-related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry data.

    PubMed

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-03-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. CPAP. The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P < 0.001). Estimated excess accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65-80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). The MVA risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with OSA suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  10. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  11. [Medium-term forecast of solar cosmic rays radiation risk during a manned Mars mission].

    PubMed

    Petrov, V M; Vlasov, A G

    2006-01-01

    Medium-term forecasting radiation hazard from solar cosmic rays will be vital in a manned Mars mission. Modern methods of space physics lack acceptable reliability in medium-term forecasting the SCR onset and parameters. The proposed estimation of average radiation risk from SCR during the manned Mars mission is made with the use of existing SCR fluence and spectrum models and correlation of solar particle event frequency with predicted Wolf number. Radiation risk is considered an additional death probability from acute radiation reactions (ergonomic component) or acute radial disease in flight. The algorithm for radiation risk calculation is described and resulted risk levels for various periods of the 23-th solar cycle are presented. Applicability of this method to advance forecasting and possible improvements are being investigated. Recommendations to the crew based on risk estimation are exemplified.

  12. A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, P.

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

  13. Web-Based Real Time Earthquake Forecasting and Personal Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries and economies world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. One example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities that has been responsible for the official California earthquake forecast since 1988. However, in a time of increasingly severe global financial constraints, we are now moving inexorably towards personal risk management, wherein mitigating risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Under these circumstances, open access to a variety of web-based tools, utilities and information is a necessity. Here we describe a web-based system that has been operational since 2009 at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. Models for earthquake physics and forecasting require input data, along with model parameters. The models we consider are the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) model for regional earthquake forecasting, together with models for activation and quiescence. These models use small earthquakes ('seismicity-based models") to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, either through varying rates of small earthquake activity, or via an accumulation of this activity over time. These approaches use data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. The basic idea is to compute large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Each of these approaches has computational challenges associated with computing forecast information in real time. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we show that real-time forecasting is possible at a grid scale of 0.1o. We have analyzed the performance of these models using Reliability/Attributes and standard Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. We show how the Reliability and

  14. Latent class analysis of accident risks in usage-based insurance: Evidence from Beijing.

    PubMed

    Jin, Wen; Deng, Yinglu; Jiang, Hai; Xie, Qianyan; Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian

    2018-06-01

    Car insurance is quickly becoming a big data industry, with usage-based insurance (UBI) poised to potentially change the business of insurance. Telematics data, which are transmitted from wireless devices in car, are widely used in UBI to obtain individual-level travel and driving characteristics. While most existing studies have introduced telematics data into car insurance pricing, the telematics-related characteristics are directly obtained from the raw data. In this study, we propose to quantify drivers' familiarity with their driving routes and develop models to quantify drivers' accident risks using the telematics data. In addition, we build a latent class model to study the heterogeneity in travel and driving styles based on the telematics data, which has not been investigated in literature. Our main results include: (1) the improvement to the model fit is statistically significant by adding telematics-related characteristics; (2) drivers' familiarity with their driving trips is critical to identify high risk drivers, and the relationship between drivers' familiarity and accident risks is non-linear; (3) the drivers can be classified into two classes, where the first class is the low risk class with 0.54% of its drivers reporting accidents, and the second class is the high risk class with 20.66% of its drivers reporting accidents; and (4) for the low risk class, drivers with high probability of reporting accidents can be identified by travel-behavior-related characteristics, while for the high risk class, they can be identified by driving-behavior-related characteristics. The driver's familiarity will affect the probability of reporting accidents for both classes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Effect of consecutive driving on accident risk: a comparison between passenger and freight train driving.

    PubMed

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Ju, Lai-Shun

    2008-11-01

    This study combined driver-responsible accidents with on-board driving hours to examine the effect of consecutive driving on the accident risk of train operations. The data collected from the Taiwan Railway Administration for the period 1996-2006 was used to compute accident rates for varied accumulated driving hours for passenger and freight trains. The results showed that accident risk grew with increased consecutive driving hours for both passenger and freight trains, and doubled that of the first hour after four consecutive hours of driving. Additional accident risk was found for freight trains during the first hour due to required shunting in the marshalling yards where there are complex track layouts and semi-automatic traffic controls. Also, accident risk for train driving increased more quickly over consecutive driving hours than for automobile driving, and accumulated fatigue caused by high working pressure and monotony of the working environment are considered to be the part of the reason. To prevent human errors accidents, enhancing safety equipment, driver training programs, and establishing a sound auditing system are suggested and discussed.

  16. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  17. Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

    PubMed

    Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

    2017-03-15

    As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  19. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

    PubMed

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-04-20

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

  20. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China

    PubMed Central

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents. PMID:28425956

  1. Risk factors of fatal occupational accidents in Iran.

    PubMed

    Asady, Hadi; Yaseri, Mehdi; Hosseini, Mostafa; Zarif-Yeganeh, Morvarid; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Haghshenas, Mahin; Hajizadeh-Moghadam, Parisa

    2018-01-01

    Occupational accidents are of most important consequences of globalization in developing countries. Therefore, investigating the causes of occupational accidents for improving the job situation and making operational policy is necessary. So the aim of this study was to investigate factors affecting the fatal occupational accidents and also calculate the years of life lost for dead workers. This cross-sectional study was conducted on data related to the 6052 injured workers that was registered in the 2013 registry system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran. Variables including sex, education, age, job tenure, injury cause, referred location of injured workers, occupation, shift work, season, accident day, damaged part of the body were chosen as independent variables. The Chi-squared and Fisher exact tests were used for univariate analysis and then exact multiple logistic regression was carried out to identify independent risk factors of fatal occupational accidents. Finally, for dead workers, years of life lost, according to the injury causes was calculated. Among the 6052 accidents reported, 33 deaths were recorded. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests showed that factors including: current job tenure ( p  = 0.01), damaged parts of the body ( p  < 0.001) and injury cause ( p  < 0.001) are associated with the fatal accidents. Also exact multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between electric shocks as a cause of injury (OR = 7.04; 95% CI: 1.01-43.74; p  = 0.02) and current job tenure more than 1 year (OR = 0.21; 95% CI: 0.05-0.70; p  = 0.005) with the fatal accidents. The total amount of years of life lost based on causes of injuries was estimated 1289.12 years. In Iran, fatal accident odds in workers with job tenure more than 1 year was less in comparing to the workers with job tenure less and equal to 1 year. Also odd of death for electrical shock was more than other causes of injuries. So it seems

  2. Patients' Risk of Causing Traffic Violations and Traffic Accidents while Driving.

    PubMed

    Šestan, Nevenka; Dodič Fikfak, Metoda; Balantič, Zvone

    2017-09-01

    This study examines whether drivers suffering from epilepsy, chronic alcoholism and/or hazardous drinking, psychoactive substance abuse, other diseases of the nervous system, mental and behavioural disorders, cardiovascular diseases, severe diabetes, and severe eye diseases are at a greater risk of causing traffic accidents and traffic violations than drivers that cause accidents and violations without these diagnoses. A case control study was carried out. The cases were drivers checked by a special medical committee in the period observed suffering from the diseases listed above. Matched controls were taken from the cohort of those that caused accidents and violations during the same period observed. The descriptive statistics were followed by calculation of correlations, t-tests and χ 2 , and the odds ratio. Drivers with referrals for diseases of the nervous system are five times more likely to cause a traffic accident compared to controls (OR=5.18; 95% CI=2.59-10.34); in addition, a high risk is associated with drivers with mental and behavioural disorders (OR=3.64; 95% CI=1.91-6.94), drivers with epilepsy (OR=1.99; 95% CI=1.01-3.92), and drivers addicted to alcohol (OR=1.71; 95% CI=1.01-2.89). Drivers suffering from addiction, a disease of the nervous system, or epilepsy are more likely to cause a traffic accident, which is a contribution to the inconclusive findings of previous studies. The multiple reasons for risks of patients suffering from mental and behavioural disorders need to be further investigated. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  3. The impact of young drivers' lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area.

    PubMed

    Chliaoutakis, J E; Darviri, C; Demakakos, P T

    1999-11-01

    Young drivers (18-24) both in Greece and elsewhere appear to have high rates of road traffic accidents. Many factors contribute to the creation of these high road traffic accidents rates. It has been suggested that lifestyle is an important one. The main objective of this study is to find out and clarify the (potential) relationship between young drivers' lifestyle and the road traffic accident risk they face. Moreover, to examine if all the youngsters have the same elevated risk on the road or not. The sample consisted of 241 young Greek drivers of both sexes. The statistical analysis included factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. Through the principal component analysis a ten factor scale was created which included the basic lifestyle traits of young Greek drivers. The logistic regression analysis showed that the young drivers whose dominant lifestyle trait is alcohol consumption or drive without destination have high accident risk, while these whose dominant lifestyle trait is culture, face low accident risk. Furthermore, young drivers who are religious in one way or another seem to have low accident risk. Finally, some preliminary observations on how health promotion should be put into practice are discussed.

  4. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Evans, K. M.; Evett, S.

    2016-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation or flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. Previous research and modeling for flood control reservoirs has shown that FIRO can reduce flood risk and increase water supply for many reservoirs. The risk-based method of FIRO presents a unique approach that incorporates flow forecasts made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) to model and assess risk of meeting or exceeding identified management targets or thresholds. Forecasted risk is evaluated against set risk tolerances to set reservoir flood releases. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 116,500 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United State Army Corps of Engineers and is operated by the Sonoma County Water Agency for water supply. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has been plagued with water supply reliability issues since 2007. FIRO is applied to Lake Mendocino by simulating daily hydrologic conditions from 1985 to 2010 in the Upper Russian River from Lake Mendocino to the City of Healdsburg approximately 50 miles downstream. The risk-based method is simulated using a 15-day, 61 member streamflow hindcast by the CNRFC. Model simulation results of risk-based flood operations demonstrate a 23% increase in average end of water year (September 30) storage levels over current operations. Model results show no increase in occurrence of flood damages for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that FIRO may be a viable flood control operations approach for Lake Mendocino and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

  5. Second-generation antipsychotics and risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Percudani, Mauro; Barbui, Corrado; Fortino, Ida; Tansella, Michele; Petrovich, Lorenzo

    2005-10-01

    Concern has been recently raised for risperidone and olanzapine, possibly associated with cerebrovascular events in placebo-controlled trials conducted in elderly subjects with dementia. We investigated the relationship between exposure to second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) and occurrence of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly. From the regional database of hospital admissions of Lombardy, Italy, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older with cerebrovascular-related outcomes for the year 2002. From the regional database of prescriptions reimbursed by the National Health Service, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older who received antipsychotic prescriptions during 2001. The 2 databases were linked anonymously using the individual patient code. The proportions of cerebrovascular accidents were 3.31% (95% confidence interval, 2.95-3.69) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to SGAs and 2.37% (95% confidence interval, 2.19-2.57) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to first-generation antipsychotics. After background group differences were controlled for, exposure to SGAs significantly increased the risk of accidents. The analysis of cerebrovascular events in elderly subjects exposed to each individual SGA, in comparison with exposure to haloperidol, showed a significantly increased risk for risperidone only (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.93). These data provide preliminary epidemiological evidence that exposure to SGAs, in comparison with exposure to first-generation antipsychotics, significantly increased the risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

  6. [Human risk factors and injuries due to road accidents: analysis of current data].

    PubMed

    Marchetti, Pierpaolo; Morandi, Anna; Lombardo, Carlo; Gigli Berzolari, Francesca; Bruno, Vincenzo; Marinoni, Alessandra

    2009-01-01

    several studies have shown that most road accidents are due to human factors, and that these are strongly linked to a drive's age and sex. The aim of this study is to test the role that some human factors play in road accidents by analysing current road accident data in the Province of Pavia, in Northern Italy. road accidents that occurred in 2004 were analysed by integrating the paper database of the vehicle licensing office, properly computerised, with the 911 database of the Province of Pavia. This study has been carried out by analysing 1.347 road accidents and the associated 2.908 drivers of motorised vehicles. Northern Italy, the Province of Pavia. the death rate of drivers of 2-wheeled vehicles is almost nine times higher than that of 4-wheeled vehicles. Analysis shows that females are twice as exposed to road accidents than males; it also shows the benefits of extensive road education training and of being aged 30-64 and older. Drivers who have already been punished and have had their driving license scores reduced are likely to respond rapidly when in a dangerous situation and also to be without blame after an accident. Motorcycle riders are 25 times more likely to suffer serious injury than drivers of cars. Additionally, the risk of a woman being seriously injured is higher than for a man. females, young drivers and motorcycle riders who have not previously been penalised for a previous traffic violation have a higher risk of being seriously injured; females and motorcycle riders are also at greater risk of being seriously injured. We hope that this analysis will be used to improve preventative interventions for road accidents.r.

  7. Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Sohanur

    2017-12-01

    Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

  8. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    PubMed

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Synthesis of national risk profile

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The methodology used and results obtained in computing the national risk profile for carbon fibers (CF) released after an aircraft accident (fire or explosion) are presented. The computation was performed by use of twenty-six individual conditional risk profiles, together with the extrapolation of these profiles to other U.S. airports. The risk profile was obtained using 1993 CF utilization forecasts, but numbers of facilities were taken from 1972 and 1975 census data, while losses were expressed in 1977 dollars.

  10. Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh

    2017-11-01

    A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

  11. Guidelines for exposure assessment in health risk studies following a nuclear reactor accident.

    PubMed

    Bouville, André; Linet, Martha S; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Simon, Steven L

    2014-01-01

    Worldwide concerns regarding health effects after the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents indicate a clear need to identify short- and long-term health impacts that might result from accidents in the future. Fundamental to addressing this problem are reliable and accurate radiation dose estimates for the affected populations. The available guidance for activities following nuclear accidents is limited with regard to strategies for dose assessment in health risk studies. Here we propose a comprehensive systematic approach to estimating radiation doses for the evaluation of health risks resulting from a nuclear power plant accident, reflected in a set of seven guidelines. Four major nuclear reactor accidents have occurred during the history of nuclear power production. The circumstances leading to these accidents were varied, as were the magnitude of the releases of radioactive materials, the pathways by which persons were exposed, the data collected afterward, and the lifestyle factors and dietary consumption that played an important role in the associated radiation exposure of the affected populations. Accidents involving nuclear reactors may occur in the future under a variety of conditions. The guidelines we recommend here are intended to facilitate obtaining reliable dose estimations for a range of different exposure conditions. We recognize that full implementation of the proposed approach may not always be feasible because of other priorities during the nuclear accident emergency and because of limited resources in manpower and equipment. The proposed approach can serve as a basis to optimize the value of radiation dose reconstruction following a nuclear reactor accident.

  12. Forecasting the onset of an allergic risk to poaceae in Nancy and Strasbourg (France) with different methods.

    PubMed

    Cassagne, E; Caillaud, P D; Besancenot, J P; Thibaudon, M

    2007-10-01

    Pollen of Poaceae is among the most allergenic pollen in Europe with pollen of birch. It is therefore useful to elaborate models to help pollen allergy sufferers. The objective of this study was to construct forecast models that could predict the first day characterized by a certain level of allergic risk called here the Starting Date of the Allergic Risk (SDAR). Models result from four forecast methods (three summing and one multiple regression analysis) used in the literature. They were applied on Nancy and Strasbourg from 1988 to 2005 and were tested on 2006. Mean Absolute Error and Actual forecast ability test are the parameters used to choose best models, assess and compare their accuracy. It was found, on the whole, that all the models presented a good forecast accuracy which was equivalent. They were all reliable and were used in order to forecast the SDAR in 2006 with contrasting results in forecasting precision.

  13. The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

    PubMed

    Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  16. Analysis of Incident and Accident Reports and Risk Management in Spine Surgery.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Kazuyoshi; Imagama, Shiro; Ando, Kei; Hida, Tetsuro; Ito, Kenyu; Tsushima, Mikito; Ishikawa, Yoshimoto; Matsumoto, Akiyuki; Morozumi, Masayoshi; Nishida, Yoshihiro; Nagao, Yoshimasa; Ishiguro, Naoki

    2017-08-01

    A review of accident and incident reports. To analyze prevalence, characteristics, and details of perioperative incidents and accidents in patients receiving spine surgery. In our institution, a clinical error that potentially results in an adverse event is usually submitted as an incident or accident report through a web database, to ensure anonymous and blame-free reporting. All reports are analyzed by a medical safety management group. These reports contain valuable data for management of medical safety, but there have been no studies evaluating such data for spine surgery. A total of 320 incidents and accidents that occurred perioperatively in 172 of 415 spine surgeries were included in the study. Incidents were defined as events that were "problematic, but with no damage to the patient," and accidents as events "with damage to the patient." The details of these events were analyzed. There were 278 incidents in 137 surgeries and 42 accidents in 35 surgeries, giving prevalence of 33% (137/415) and 8% (35/415), respectively. The proportion of accidents among all events was significantly higher for doctors than non-doctors [68.0% (17/25) vs. 8.5% (25/295), P < 0.01] and in the operating room compared with outside the operating room [40.5% (15/37) vs. 9.5% (27/283), P < 0.01]. There was no significant difference in years of experience among personnel involved in all events. The major types of events were medication-related, line and tube problems, and falls and slips. Accidents also occurred because of a long-term prone position, with complications such as laryngeal edema, ulnar nerve palsy, and tooth damage. Surgery and procedures in the operating room always have a risk of complications. Therefore, a particular effort is needed to establish safe management of this environment and to provide advice on risk to the doctor and medical care team. 4.

  17. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

  18. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  19. Young drivers' optimism bias for accident risk and driving skill: Accountability and insight experience manipulations.

    PubMed

    White, Melanie J; Cunningham, Lauren C; Titchener, Kirsteen

    2011-07-01

    This study aimed to determine whether two brief, low cost interventions would reduce young drivers' optimism bias for their driving skills and accident risk perceptions. This tendency for such drivers to perceive themselves as more skillful and less prone to driving accidents than their peers may lead to less engagement in precautionary driving behaviours and a greater engagement in more dangerous driving behaviour. 243 young drivers (aged 17-25 years) were randomly allocated to one of three groups: accountability, insight or control. All participants provided both overall and specific situation ratings of their driving skills and accident risk relative to a typical young driver. Prior to completing the questionnaire, those in the accountability condition were first advised that their driving skills and accident risk would be later assessed via a driving simulator. Those in the insight condition first underwent a difficult computer-based hazard perception task designed to provide participants with insight into their potential limitations when responding to hazards in difficult and unpredictable driving situations. Participants in the control condition completed only the questionnaire. Results showed that the accountability manipulation was effective in reducing optimism bias in terms of participants' comparative ratings of their accident risk in specific situations, though only for less experienced drivers. In contrast, among more experienced males, participants in the insight condition showed greater optimism bias for overall accident risk than their counterparts in the accountability or control groups. There were no effects of the manipulations on drivers' skills ratings. The differential effects of the two types of manipulations on optimism bias relating to one's accident risk in different subgroups of the young driver sample highlight the importance of targeting interventions for different levels of experience. Accountability interventions may be beneficial for

  20. [Labor accidents involving the eyes: assessment of occupational risks involving nursing workers].

    PubMed

    de Almeida, Cristiana Brasil; Pagliuca, Lorita Marlena Freitag; Leite, Ana Lourdes Almeida e Silva

    2005-01-01

    The study aimed at identifying nursing workers who were victims of eye accidents and the type of accident; describing the measures taken and proposing Health Education methods. A descriptive and exploratory study was carried out at a public maternity hospital from September 2002 to January 2003. Data were collected through direct observation of the environment and interviews with workers. Subjects were ten professionals (one nurse, two technicians and seven nursing auxiliaries) who were victims of work accidents involving the eye. The accidents were grouped according to the type of material that caused the trauma: chemical substances (4), medication (3), mechanical trauma (1), scalp (1) and urine (1). The results reveal that hospital workers are vulnerable to labor accidents because the environment presents biological, chemical and physical risks. An important step to prevent the occurrence of new accidents would be the prevention of human mistakes through permanent training and the use of protection glasses.

  1. Balancing Flood Risk and Water Supply in California: Policy Search Combining Short-Term Forecast Ensembles and Groundwater Recharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, J. D.; Steinschneider, S.; Nayak, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Short-term weather forecasts are not codified into the operating policies of federal, multi-purpose reservoirs, despite their potential to improve service provision. This is particularly true for facilities that provide flood protection and water supply, since the potential flood damages are often too severe to accept the risk of inaccurate forecasts. Instead, operators must maintain empty storage capacity to mitigate flood risk, even if the system is currently in drought, as occurred in California from 2012-2016. This study investigates the potential for forecast-informed operating rules to improve water supply efficiency while maintaining flood protection, combining state-of-the-art weather hindcasts with a novel tree-based policy optimization framework. We hypothesize that forecasts need only accurately predict the occurrence of a storm, rather than its intensity, to be effective in regions like California where wintertime, synoptic-scale storms dominate the flood regime. We also investigate the potential for downstream groundwater injection to improve the utility of forecasts. These hypotheses are tested in a case study of Folsom Reservoir on the American River. Because available weather hindcasts are relatively short (10-20 years), we propose a new statistical framework to develop synthetic forecasts to assess the risk associated with inaccurate forecasts. The efficiency of operating policies is tested across a range of scenarios that include varying forecast skill and additional groundwater pumping capacity. Results suggest that the combined use of groundwater storage and short-term weather forecasts can substantially improve the tradeoff between water supply and flood control objectives in large, multi-purpose reservoirs in California.

  2. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. MRI-related magnetic field exposures and risk of commuting accidents - A cross-sectional survey among Dutch imaging technicians.

    PubMed

    Huss, Anke; Schaap, Kristel; Kromhout, Hans

    2017-07-01

    Imaging technicians working with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may experience acute effects such as vertigo or dizziness when being exposed. A previous study also reported an increased risk of accidents in MRI exposed staff. We aimed at evaluating commuting accident risk in Dutch imaging technicians. Of invited imaging technicians, 490 (29%) filled in a questionnaire pertaining to (near) accidents when driving or riding a bike, health, lifestyle and work practices. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between exposure to MRI-related electromagnetic fields and risk of commuting (near) accidents in the year prior to the survey, adjusted for a range of potential confounders. Our cross-sectional study indicated an increased risk of (near) accidents if imaging technicians had worked with MRI in the year prior to the survey (odds ratio OR 2.13, 95%CI 1.23-3.69). Risks were higher in persons who worked with MRI more often (OR 2.32, 95%CI 1.25-4.31) compared to persons who worked sometimes with MRI (OR 1.91, 95%CI 0.98-3.72), and higher in those who had likely experienced higher peak exposures to static and time-varying magnetic fields (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.06-4.48). The effect was seen on commuting accidents that had occurred on the commute from home to work as well as accidents from work to home or elsewhere. Imaging technicians working with MRI scanners may be at an increased risk of commuting (near) accidents. This result needs confirmation and potential risks for other groups (volunteers, patients) should be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

    2013-07-01

    The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

  5. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

  6. Assessment of medium-term cardiovascular disease risk after Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: a retrospective analysis

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Shuhei; Gilmour, Stuart; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Lee, Kiwon; Kiyabu, Grace Y; Shibuya, Kenji

    2017-01-01

    Objective To assess the medium-term indirect impact of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks and to identify whether risk factors for CVD changed after the accident. Participants Residents aged 40 years and over participating in annual public health check-ups from 2009 to 2012, administered by Minamisoma city, located about 10 to 40 km from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Methods The sex-specific Framingham CVD risk score was considered as the outcome measure and was compared before (2009–2010) and after the accident (2011–2012). A multivariate regression analysis was employed to evaluate risk factors for CVD. Results Data from 563 individuals (60.2% women) aged 40 to 74 years who participated in the check-ups throughout the study period was analysed. After adjusting for covariates, no statistically significant change was identified in the CVD risk score postaccident in both sexes, which may suggest no obvious medium-term health impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on CVD risk. The risk factors for CVD and their magnitude and direction (positive/negative) did not change after the accident. Conclusions There was no obvious increase in CVD risks in Minamisoma city, which may indicate successful management of health risks associated with CVD in the study sample. PMID:29275343

  7. Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; Bonow, Clarice Alves; da Silva, Mara Regina Santos; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Cardoso, Letícia Silveira

    2012-01-01

    The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%), physical (88.2%), physiological (64.3%) and biological (62.4%). In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p < 0.05). It is concluded that workers perceive risks, and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment. PMID:22851948

  8. The potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Gohardehi, Shaban; Sharif, Mehdi; Sarvi, Shahabeddin; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Hosseini, Seyed Abdollah; Amouei, Afsaneh; Pagheh, Abdolsattar; Sadeghi, Mitra; Daryani, Ahmad

    2018-06-12

    Toxoplasmosis is a prevalent infectious disease. Although most people infected by Toxoplasma gondii are asymptomatic, evidence has suggested that this disease might affect some aspects of a host's behavior and associate with schizophrenia, suicide attempt, changes in various aspects of personality, and poor neurocognitive performance. These associations may play roles in increasing the risk of a number of incidents, such as traffic accidents, among infected people. In this regard, this study aimed to provide summary estimates for the available data on the potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents. To this end, using a number of search terms, i.e. toxoplasmosis, Toxoplasma gondii, traffic accident, road accident, car accident, crash, and prevalence, literature searches (up to October 1, 2017) were carried out via 6 databases. The meta-analysis was conducted using the StatsDirect statistical software and a P-value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant in all statistical analyses. Out of 1841 identified studies, 9 studies were finally considered eligible for carrying out this systematic review. Reviewing results of these studies indicated that 5 out of 9 studies reported a significant relationship between Toxoplasma gondii and traffic accidents. Additionally, data related to gender showed significant differences between infected and control men and women. Considering age, reviewing the results of these studies revealed a significant difference between the infected people and the Toxoplasma-negative subjects under 45 years of age. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups aged 45 or older. Given these results, it can be concluded that Toxoplasma gondii significantly increases the risk of having traffic accidents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S A

    2006-09-01

    The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

  10. Pollution risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Garorim Bay of Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2015-11-15

    This study presents a model to assess the oil spill risk in Garorim Bay in Korea, where large-scale oil spill accidents frequently occur. The oil spill risk assessment is carried out by using two factors: 1) The impact probability of the oil spill, and 2) the first impact time of the oil that has been spilt. The risk assessment is conducted for environmentally sensitive areas, such as the coastline and aquaculture farms in the Garorim Bay area. Finally, Garorim Bay is divided into six subareas, and the risks of each subarea are compared with one another to identify the subarea that is most vulnerable to an oil spill accident. These results represent an objective and comprehensive oil spill risk level for a specific region. The prediction of the oil spill spread is based on real-time sea conditions and can be improved by integrating our results, especially when sea conditions are rapidly changing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Minimizing Accidents and Risks in High Adventure Outdoor Pursuits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meier, Joel

    The fundamental dilemma in adventure programming is eliminating unreasonable risks to participants without also reducing levels of excitement, challenge, and stress. Most accidents are caused by a combination of unsafe conditions, unsafe acts, and error judgments. The best and only way to minimize critical human error in adventure programs is…

  12. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  13. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  14. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

  15. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-03-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Hourly runoff forecasting for flood risk management: Application of various computational intelligence models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2015-10-01

    Reliable river flow forecasts play a key role in flood risk mitigation. Among different approaches of river flow forecasting, data driven approaches have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their minimum information requirements and ability to simulate nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, attempts are made to apply four different types of data driven approaches, namely traditional artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), wavelet neural networks (WNN), and, hybrid ANFIS with multi resolution analysis using wavelets (WNF). Developed models applied for real time flood forecasting at Casino station on Richmond River, Australia which is highly prone to flooding. Hourly rainfall and runoff data were used to drive the models which have been used for forecasting with 1, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h lead-time. The performance of models further improved by adding an upstream river flow data (Wiangaree station), as another effective input. All models perform satisfactorily up to 12 h lead-time. However, the hybrid wavelet-based models significantly outperforming the ANFIS and ANN models in the longer lead-time forecasting. The results confirm the robustness of the proposed structure of the hybrid models for real time runoff forecasting in the study area.

  17. [Accidents and violence in childhood and adolescence: risk and protective factors].

    PubMed

    Martins, Christine Baccarat de Godoy

    2013-01-01

    Singled out by statistics as the third leading cause of mortality in our country, external causes (accidents and violence) entail a great impact with economic, social and emotional rebound. Knowing the factors related to the event is essential, because it allows identifying and breaking the web that determines morbidity and mortality from external causes. The study aims to analyze the existing publications on the factors associated with accidents and violence, in order to provide theoretical support for professionals in their practices. This is a bibliographical study of the Liliacs, Medline and Scielo databanks. The knowledge of the risk and protection factors discussed in the present study enables subsidize the practice of social actors engaged in transforming the conditions that lead to accidents and violence.

  18. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

    1991-01-01

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

  19. Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M. E.; Kaplan, L.

    1980-01-01

    The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

  20. Integrating Windblown Dust Forecasts with Public Safety and Health Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprigg, W. A.

    2014-12-01

    Experiments in real-time prediction of desert dust emissions and downstream plume concentrations (~ 3.5 km near-surface spatial resolution) succeed to the point of challenging public safety and public health services to beta test a dust storm warning and advisory system in lowering risks of highway and airline accidents and illnesses such as asthma and valley fever. Key beta test components are: high-resolution models of dust emission, entrainment and diffusion, integrated with synoptic weather observations and forecasts; satellite-based detection and monitoring of soil properties on the ground and elevated above; high space and time resolution for health surveillance and transportation advisories.

  1. Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain: application and evaluation of a risk management framework.

    PubMed

    Salmon, P; Williamson, A; Lenné, M; Mitsopoulos-Rubens, E; Rudin-Brown, C M

    2010-08-01

    Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Accidents represent a significant problem within the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an evaluation of a risk management framework that can be used to understand such accidents and to inform the development of accident countermeasures and mitigation strategies for the led outdoor activity domain.

  2. Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

    2013-08-01

    To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on

  3. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    PubMed Central

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  4. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

    PubMed

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-04-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions.

  5. New developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre: operational flood risk assessment and guidance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilling, Charlie

    2017-04-01

    The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. The FFC was established in 2009 to provide an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and to provide flood guidance services primarily for the emergency response community. The FFC provides forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, these being fluvial, surface water, coastal and groundwater. This involves an assessment of possible hydrometeorological events and their impacts over the next five days. During times of heightened flood risk, the close communication between the FFC, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales allows mobilization and deployment of staff and flood defences. Following a number of severe flood events during winters 2013-14 and 2015-16, coupled with a drive from the changing landscape in national incident response, there is a desire to identify flood events at even longer lead time. This earlier assessment and mobilization is becoming increasingly important and high profile within Government. For example, following the exceptional flooding across the north of England in December 2015 the Environment Agency have invested in 40 km of temporary barriers that will be moved around the country to help mitigate against the impacts of large flood events. Efficient and effective use of these barriers depends on identifying the broad regions at risk well in advance of the flood, as well as scaling the magnitude and duration of large events. Partly in response to this, the FFC now produce a flood risk assessment for a month ahead. In addition, since January 2017, the 'new generation' daily flood guidance statement includes an assessment of flood risk for the 6 to 10 day period. Examples of both these new products will be introduced, as will some of the new developments in science and technical capability that underpin these assessments. Examples include improvements to fluvial forecasting from 'fluvial

  6. Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced

  7. Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

    2016-01-01

    This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

  8. Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

    2018-06-01

    Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

  9. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Bicycle accidents among teenagers

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-10-01

    The report shows that knowledge of traffic rules does not contribute to reduce the accident risk, or injury risk of young cyclists. Running red lights and cycling in the wrong direction in one-way traffic increase accident and injury risk. Using cycl...

  11. Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sankarasubramanian, A.; Lall, Upmanu; Souza Filho, Francisco Assis; Sharma, Ashish

    2009-11-01

    Probabilistic, seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts are becoming increasingly available as the ability to model climate teleconnections is improving. However, water managers and practitioners have been slow to adopt such products, citing concerns with forecast skill. Essentially, a management risk is perceived in "gambling" with operations using a probabilistic forecast, while a system failure upon following existing operating policies is "protected" by the official rules or guidebook. In the presence of a prescribed system of prior allocation of releases under different storage or water availability conditions, the manager has little incentive to change. Innovation in allocation and operation is hence key to improved risk management using such forecasts. A participatory water allocation process that can effectively use probabilistic forecasts as part of an adaptive management strategy is introduced here. Users can express their demand for water through statements that cover the quantity needed at a particular reliability, the temporal distribution of the "allocation," the associated willingness to pay, and compensation in the event of contract nonperformance. The water manager then assesses feasible allocations using the probabilistic forecast that try to meet these criteria across all users. An iterative process between users and water manager could be used to formalize a set of short-term contracts that represent the resulting prioritized water allocation strategy over the operating period for which the forecast was issued. These contracts can be used to allocate water each year/season beyond long-term contracts that may have precedence. Thus, integrated supply and demand management can be achieved. In this paper, a single period multiuser optimization model that can support such an allocation process is presented. The application of this conceptual model is explored using data for the Jaguaribe Metropolitan Hydro System in Ceara, Brazil. The performance

  12. Accidents in Coal Mining from Perspective of Risk Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khamidullina, E. A.; Timofeeva, S. S.; Smirnov, G. I.

    2017-11-01

    Introduction. The indicators of the safety system quality in the technosphere include risk indicators. The purpose of this work is to assess the social risk of coal mining since coal mining is associated with specific working conditions, and any emergency situation immediately jeopardizes thelives of many people at the same time. Methods. The work is based on the analysis of statistical information. Results and discussion. The F/N curve of coal mining for the 70-year period (1943-2012) was constructed, and the normative values of the social risk of Russia and other industrialized countries were discussed. Judging by the F/N diagram, only the frequency of accidents with a large number of deaths can correspond to the normative level indicating an exceptionally high level of coal mining risk.

  13. Latent profile analysis of lifestyle characteristics and health risk behaviors among Koreans who have completed industrial accident care.

    PubMed

    Choi, Wan-Suk; Moon, Ok-Kon; Yeum, Dong-Moon

    2017-10-07

    This study investigated the characteristics and health behavior profiles of 1,803 workers who had experienced industrial accidents. Average weekly exercise days, average number of cigarettes smoked per day, average daily sleep duration, and number of days of alcohol consumption were selected to investigate health behavior profiles. Specifically, latent profile analysis was applied to identify the health behavior profiles of people who had completed industrial accident care; the latent classes were the health-conscious type (n=240), the potential-risk type (n=850), and the high-risk type (n=713). Comparison of the health-conscious and potential-risk types indicated that younger subjects, the employed, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the potential-risk type. Comparison of the health-conscious and high-risk types revealed that males, younger subjects, the employed, those without chronic illnesses, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the high-risk type. The results suggest that industrial accident victims who have completed accident care have different health behaviors and it is necessary to improve health promotion based on health type characteristics.

  14. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    PubMed

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  15. Improving operational plume forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)

  16. Thyroid neoplasia risk is increased nearly 30 years after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Tronko, Mykola; Brenner, Alina V; Bogdanova, Tetiana; Shpak, Victor; Oliynyk, Valeriy; Cahoon, Elizabeth K; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Little, Mark P; Tereshchenko, Valeriy; Zamotayeva, Galyna; Terekhova, Galyna; Zurnadzhi, Lyudmila; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    2017-10-15

    To evaluate risk of thyroid neoplasia nearly 30 years following exposure to radioactive iodine (I-131) from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident, we conducted a fifth cycle of thyroid screening of the Ukrainian-American cohort during 2012-2015, following four previous screening cycles started in 1998. We identified 47 thyroid cancers (TC) and 33 follicular adenomas (FA) among 10,073 individuals who were <18 years at the time of the accident and had a mean I-131 dose of 0.62 Gy. We found a significant I-131 dose response for both TC and FA, with an excess odd ratio per Gy of 1.36 (95% CI: 0.39-4.15) and 2.03 (95% CI: 0.55-6.69), respectively. The excess risk of malignant and benign thyroid neoplasia persists nearly three decades after exposure and underscores the importance of continued follow-up of this cohort to characterize long-term pattern of I-131 risk. © 2017 UICC.

  17. Forecast Based Financing for Managing Weather and Climate Risks to Reduce Potential Disaster Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrighi, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is a critical window of time to reduce potential impacts of a disaster after a forecast for heightened risk is issued and before an extreme event occurs. The concept of Forecast-based Financing focuses on this window of opportunity. Through advanced preparation during system set-up, tailored methodologies are used to 1) analyze a range of potential extreme event forecasts, 2) identify emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when factoring in forecast lead time and inherent uncertainty and 3) develop standard operating procedures that are agreed on and tied to guaranteed funding sources to facilitate emergency measures led by the Red Cross or government actors when preparedness measures are triggered. This presentation will focus on a broad overview of the current state of theory and approaches used in developing a forecast-based financing systems - with a specific focus on hydrologic events, case studies of success and challenges in various contexts where this approach is being piloted, as well as what is on the horizon to be further explored and developed from a research perspective as the application of this approach continues to expand.

  18. Exposure to static magnetic fields and risk of accidents among a cohort of workers from a medical imaging device manufacturing facility.

    PubMed

    Bongers, Suzan; Slottje, Pauline; Portengen, Lützen; Kromhout, Hans

    2016-05-01

    To study the association between occupational MRI-related static magnetic fields (SMF) exposure and the occurrence of accidents. Recent and career SMF exposure was assessed by linking a retrospective job exposure matrix to payroll based job histories, for a cohort of (former) workers of an imaging device manufacturing facility in the Netherlands. Occurrence of accidents was collected through an online questionnaire. Self-reported injuries due to accidents in the past 12 months, and the first (near) traffic accident while commuting to work and from work were analyzed with logistic regression and discrete-time survival analyses, respectively. High recent SMF exposure was associated with an increased risk of accidents leading to injuries [odds ratio (OR) 4.16]. For high recent and career SMF exposure, an increased risk was observed for accidents resulting in physician-treated injuries (OR 5.78 and 2.79, respectively) and an increased lifetime risk of (near) accidents during commute to work (hazard ratios 2.49 and 2.45, respectively), but not from work. We found an association between MRI-related occupational SMF exposure and an increased risk of accidents leading to injury, and for commute-related (near) accidents during the commute from home to work. Further research into health effects of (long-term) SMF exposure is warranted to corroborate our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. A Policy Intervention Study to Identify High-Risk Groups to Prevent Industrial Accidents in Republic of Korea.

    PubMed

    Yi, Kwan Hyung; Lee, Seung Soo

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study is to identify high-risk groups for industrial accidents by setting up 2003 as the base year and conducting an in-depth analysis of the trends of major industrial accident indexes the index of industrial accident rate, the index of occupational injury rate, the index of occupational illness and disease rate per 10,000 people, and the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people for the past 10 years. This study selected industrial accident victims, who died or received more than 4 days of medical care benefits, due to occupational accidents and diseases occurring at workplaces, subject to the Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance Act, as the study population. According to the trends of four major indexes by workplace characteristics, the whole industry has shown a decreasing tendency in all four major indexes since the base year (2003); as of 2012, the index of industrial accident rate was 67, while the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people was 59. The manufacturing industry, age over 50 years and workplaces with more than 50 employees showed a high severity level of occupational accidents. Male workers showed a higher severity level of occupational accidents than female workers. The employment period of < 3 years and newly hired workers with a relatively shorter working period are likely to have more occupational accidents than others. Overall, an industrial accident prevention policy must be established by concentrating all available resources and capacities of these high-risk groups.

  20. [Analysis of accidents at work in building yards: correlation between risk and law defaults in yards of Palermo].

    PubMed

    Arcadipane, C; Verso, M G; Schillaci, S; Picciotto, D

    2007-01-01

    In the last years the building firm underwent real boom for investments and workers but not for safety measures. In the building sector there is a great accidents risks for falls from the top. The aim of present study is to analyze trend of accidents at work in building yards according to INAIL DATA and we will identify causes and risks then we will correlate these risks with frequent law defaults that we noticed in the province of Palermo. At the end we will value possible preventive measures to avoid this phenomenon. DATA INAIL of period 2001-2005 about building sector show us a reduction of denounced accidents at work but this phenomenon is changeable. Palermo is the first sicilian province for accidents at work although the number of denounced accidents (from 2001 to 2005) is decreasing while this number in Catania is increasing, CPT of Palermo gave us data (from 2004 to 2006) about inspections in building yards. Our study interests 609 yards and 1827 work stages. We noticed the most number of rests in civil yards.

  1. Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents Related to Sleepiness at the Wheel: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Bioulac, Stéphanie; Franchi, Jean-Arthur Micoulaud; Arnaud, Mickael; Sagaspe, Patricia; Moore, Nicholas; Salvo, Francesco; Philip, Pierre

    2017-10-01

    Sleepiness at the wheel is widely believed to be a cause of motor vehicle accidents. Nevertheless, a systematic review of studies investigating this relationship has not yet been published. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between sleepiness at the wheel and motor vehicle accidents. A systematic review was performed using Medline, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science. The outcome measure of interest was motor vehicle accident defined as involving four- or two-wheeled vehicles in road traffic, professional and nonprofessional drivers, with or without objective consequences. The exposure was sleepiness at the wheel defined as self-reported sleepiness at the wheel. Studies were included if they provided adjusted risk estimates of motor vehicle accidents related to sleepiness at the wheel. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was quantified using Q statistics and the I2 index. The potential causes of heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regressions. Ten cross-sectional studies (51,520 participants), six case-control studies (4904 participants), and one cohort study (13,674 participants) were included. Sleepiness at the wheel was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (pooled OR 2.51 [95% CI 1.87; 3.39]). A significant heterogeneity was found between the individual risk estimates (Q = 93.21; I2 = 83%). Sleepiness at the wheel increases the risk of motor vehicle accidents and should be considered when investigating fitness to drive. Further studies are required to explore the nature of this relationship. PROSPERO 2015 CRD42015024805. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  3. Increased risk of traffic accidents in subjects with latent toxoplasmosis: a retrospective case-control study

    PubMed Central

    Flegr, Jaroslav; Havlícek, Jan; Kodym, Petr; Malý, Marek; Smahel, Zbyněk

    2002-01-01

    Background The parasite Toxoplasma gondii infects 30–60% of humans worldwide. Latent toxoplasmosis, i.e., the life-long presence of Toxoplasma cysts in neural and muscular tissues, leads to prolongation of reaction times in infected subjects. It is not known, however, whether the changes observed in the laboratory influence the performance of subjects in real-life situations. Methods The seroprevalence of latent toxoplasmosis in subjects involved in traffic accidents (N = 146) and in the general population living in the same area (N = 446) was compared by a Mantel-Haenszel test for age-stratified data. Correlation between relative risk of traffic accidents and level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre was evaluated with the Cochran-Armitage test for trends. Results A higher seroprevalence was found in the traffic accident set than in the general population (Chi2MH = 21.45, p < 0.0001). The value of the odds ratio (OR) suggests that subjects with latent toxoplasmosis had a 2.65 (C.I.95= 1.76–4.01) times higher risk of an accident than the toxoplasmosis-negative subjects. The OR significantly increased with level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre (p < 0.0001), being low (OR = 1.86, C.I.95 = 1.14–3.03) for the 99 subjects with low antibody titres (8 and 16), higher (OR = 4.78, C.I.95 = 2.39–9.59) for the 37 subjects with moderate titres (32 and 64), and very high (OR = 16.03, C.I.95 = 1.89–135.66) for the 6 subjects with titres higher than 64. Conclusion The subjects with latent toxoplasmosis have significantly increased risk of traffic accidents than the noninfected subjects. Relative risk of traffic accidents decreases with the duration of infection. These results suggest that 'asymptomatic' acquired toxoplasmosis might in fact represent a serious and highly underestimated public health problem, as well as an economic problem. PMID:12095427

  4. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management-global radiocontamination and information disaster.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-06-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the "Fukushima Health Management Survey Project" for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management.

  5. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident and Comprehensive Health Risk Management—Global Radiocontamination and Information Disaster

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the “Fukushima Health Management Survey Project” for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management. PMID:25425958

  6. Powered two-wheelers road accidents and their risk perception in dense urban areas: case of Paris.

    PubMed

    Maestracci, Marion; Prochasson, François; Geffroy, Aurélie; Peccoud, Florian

    2012-11-01

    For a few years, the use of powered two-wheelers has taken off in Paris. It then became critical for the City of Paris to understand both the mechanisms leading to traffic accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers user and the perception of their risk when riding in dense urban areas. In so doing, two studies were carried out along similar lines so that their results could be compared. The first study focused on the perception of situations where accidents are most likely to occur. The second one was an analysis of police reports of accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers and the drawing-up of prototypical accident scenarios. Comparing the results of the two studies revealed a gap between perceived and objective risks of these users. In fact, they rather fear the situations during which a car driver is changing lanes, while accidents involving them occur more often when a car driver turns (right, left or U). Knowledge of this dissonance in terms of awareness of road risks for powered two-wheelers and equally, other road users, will give the City of Paris food for thought. The promising results of this study have encouraged the City of Paris to extend it to other types of users, such as cyclists or elderly pedestrians. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Aviation safety : safer skies initiative has taken initial steps to reduce accident rates by 2007

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-06-01

    The continued growth forecast for U.S. aviation in the coming decade will likely bring a rise in fatal accidents if the current accident rate is not reduced. Commercial aviation, used by most Americans when they fly, experienced an average of 6 fatal...

  8. Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

    2012-04-01

    In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

  9. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    PubMed

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  10. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    PubMed

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    PubMed Central

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  12. Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stern, Daniel C.; Levine, Allen J.; Pitt, Karl J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand forecasting experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the forecasts. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. Forecasting the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand forecasts ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range forecasts are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the forecasts are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the forecasting. Modification of the forecasting procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year forecasting.

  13. The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2001-08-01

    That forecasts should be stated in probabilistic, rather than deterministic, terms has been argued from common sense and decision-theoretic perspectives for almost a century. Yet most operational hydrological forecasting systems produce deterministic forecasts and most research in operational hydrology has been devoted to finding the 'best' estimates rather than quantifying the predictive uncertainty. This essay presents a compendium of reasons for probabilistic forecasting of hydrological variates. Probabilistic forecasts are scientifically more honest, enable risk-based warnings of floods, enable rational decision making, and offer additional economic benefits. The growing demand for information about risk and the rising capability to quantify predictive uncertainties create an unparalleled opportunity for the hydrological profession to dramatically enhance the forecasting paradigm.

  14. Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

    2013-06-01

    Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

  15. The assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble for business risk forecasting and an implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie

    2015-08-01

    The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.

  16. With power comes responsibility: motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio in relation to accident risk.

    PubMed

    Mattsson, Markus; Summala, Heikki

    2010-02-01

    Current European legislation allows the EU member states to restrict the maximum power output of motorcycles to 74 kW even though evidence supporting the limit is scarce and has produced mixed results-perhaps because motorcycle performance has been measured by engine displacement, not engine power, in most of the previous studies. This study investigates the relationship of motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio to risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes in Finland. The fatality rate (number of fatal accidents/number of registered motorbikes) for riders of different ages riding bikes belonging to different power and power-to-weight ratio classes was examined using a comprehensive in-depth database. Data on nonfatal accidents were acquired from a Web questionnaire (N = 2708), which also served as a basis for estimating riders' annual mileage. Mileage data allowed the calculation of accident risk per kilometer ridden for bikes differing in power and power-to-weight ratio. The fatality risk per number of registered motorcycles and per kilometer ridden increases both with power and power-to-weight ratio, independently of rider's age. No relationship between performance and risk of a less severe crash was found. The pre-accident speed of the most powerful bikes was 20 km/h or more over the speed limit in a large proportion of the fatal accidents (odds ratio = 4.8 for > 75 kW motorbikes; odds ratio = 6.2 for > 0.3 kW/kg motorbikes). The risk of being involved in a fatal crash is higher among the riders of powerful motorcycles. However, it is not clear whether the results are related to the riding habits of the riders that choose the most powerful bikes available or whether the high risk is due to the properties of the bikes themselves. Therefore, further research is needed before considering legal limits on motorcycle performance.

  17. Posture control and the risk of industrial accident: a stabilographic investigation in a naval shipyard.

    PubMed

    Moll van Charante, A W; Snijders, C J; Mulder, P G

    1991-10-01

    In a previous case-control study on the effect of impaired perceptual acuity on the risk of industrial injuries at a naval shipyard, three factors which might influence the perception and processing of sensory impressions--alcohol consumption, hearing loss exceeding 20 decibels (dB) and exposure to noise exceeding 82 dB(A)--were found to contribute to the risk of injury. According to recent reports, these factors can all lead to impaired posture control. Because in general about 40% of all accidents are associated with falling, tripping, slipping and the like, a supplementary study has been carried out to unravel possible confounding effects of posture control on these three risk factors. Cases (who had suffered two or more accidents during the preceding 4 years) and controls (who had been accident-free in the same period) were compared as regards posture control measured during silence or noise. No significant difference in posture control was found between cases and controls, either in silence or during exposure to heavy noise.

  18. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Introduction This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. Methods A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. Results As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57–63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30–8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00–2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03–3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14–9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Conclusion Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers. PMID:25494198

  19. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  20. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. Themore » research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.« less

  1. Risk of fatal industrial accidents and death from other external causes among asphalt workers

    PubMed Central

    Burstyn, I; Boffetta, P; Jarvholm, B; Partanen, T; Svane, O; Langard, S; Kauppinen, T; Stucker, I; Shaham, J; Heederik, D; Ahrens, W; Bergdahl, I; Cenee, S; Hooiveld, M; Randem, B; Johansen, C; Ferro, G; Kromhout, H

    2004-01-01

    Overall, no evidence was found supporting the hypothesis that asphalt workers are at increased risk of fatal industrial or road accidents. Mortality from other external causes did not increase in this population as a whole, but increased risks among short term workers deserve further attention. PMID:14691280

  2. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  3. Lifestyle and accidents among young drivers.

    PubMed

    Gregersen, N P; Berg, H Y

    1994-06-01

    This study covers the lifestyle component of the problems related to young drivers' accident risk. The purpose of the study is to measure the relationship between lifestyle and accident risk, and to identify specific high-risk and low-risk groups. Lifestyle is measured through a questionnaire, where 20-year-olds describe themselves and how often they deal with a large number of different activities, like sports, music, movies, reading, cars and driving, political engagement, etc. They also report their involvement in traffic accidents. With a principal component analysis followed by a cluster analysis, lifestyle profiles are defined. These profiles are finally correlated to accidents, which makes it possible to define high-risk and low-risk groups. The cluster analysis defined 15 clusters including four high-risk groups with an average overrisk of 150% and two low-risk groups with an average underrisk of 75%. The results are discussed from two perspectives. The first is the importance of theoretical understanding of the contribution of lifestyle factors to young drivers' high accident risk. The second is how the findings could be used in practical road safety measures, like education, campaigns, etc.

  4. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    PubMed

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. A synthesis of studies of access point density as a risk factor for road accidents.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2017-10-01

    Studies of the relationship between access point density (number of access points, or driveways, per kilometre of road) and accident frequency or rate (number of accidents per unit of exposure) have consistently found that accident rate increases when access point density increases. This paper presents a formal synthesis of the findings of these studies. It was found that the addition of one access point per kilometre of road is associated with an increase of 4% in the expected number of accidents, controlling for traffic volume. Although studies consistently indicate an increase in accident rate as access point density increases, the size of the increase varies substantially between studies. In addition to reviewing studies of access point density as a risk factor, the paper discusses some issues related to formally synthesising regression coefficients by applying the inverse-variance method of meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D

    2015-04-01

    Accidents in twin-engine aircraft carry a higher risk of fatality compared with single engine aircraft and constitute 9% of all general aviation accidents. The different flight profile (higher airspeed, service ceiling, increased fuel load, and aircraft yaw in engine failure) may make comparable studies on single-engine aircraft accident causes less relevant. The objective of this study was to identify the accident causes for non-commercial operations in twin engine aircraft. A NTSB accident database query for accidents in twin piston engine airplanes of 4-8 seat capacity with a maximum certified weight of 3000-8000lbs. operating under 14CFR Part 91 for the period spanning 2002 and 2012 returned 376 accidents. Accident causes and contributing factors were as per the NTSB final report categories. Total annual flight hour data for the twin engine piston aircraft fleet were obtained from the FAA. Statistical analyses employed Chi Square, Fisher's Exact and logistic regression analysis. Neither the combined fatal/non-fatal accident nor the fatal accident rate declined over the period spanning 2002-2012. Under visual weather conditions, the largest number, n=27, (27%) of fatal accidents was attributed to malfunction with a failure to follow single engine procedures representing the most common contributing factor. In degraded visibility, poor instrument approach procedures resulted in the greatest proportion of fatal crashes. Encountering thunderstorms was the most lethal of all accident causes with all occupants sustaining fatal injuries. At night, a failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance was the most common accident cause leading to 36% of fatal crashes. The results of logistic regression showed that operations at night (OR 3.7), off airport landings (OR 14.8) and post-impact fire (OR 7.2) all carried an excess risk of a fatal flight. This study indicates training areas that should receive increased emphasis for twin-engine training/recency. First, increased

  7. The dynamic nature of risk perceptions after a fatal transit accident.

    PubMed

    Wernstedt, Kris; Murray-Tuite, Pamela

    2015-03-01

    In 2009, two trains of Washington, DC's Metrorail system collided, resulting in nine deaths and 50 serious injuries. Based on a multiwave survey of Metrorail users in the months after the crash, this article reports how the accident appears to have (1) changed over time the tradeoffs among safety, speed, frequency of service, cost, and reliability that the transit users stated they were willing to make in the postaccident period and (2) altered transit users' concerns about safety as a function of time and distance from the accident site. We employ conditional logit models to examine tradeoffs among stated preferences for system performance measures after the accident, as well as the influence that respondent characteristics of transit use, location, income, age, and gender have on these preference tradeoffs. As expected, respondents appear averse to longer headways between trains, longer travel durations, higher travel costs, a higher number of late trains, and a higher number of fatalities. The models also show evidence of higher aversion to fatalities from transit system operation among females compared to males. In addition, respondents less experienced with Metrorail travel and those with lower household incomes show higher aversion to fatalities, and this aversion increases as a subject's psychological distance from the accident site decreases. Contrary to expectations shaped by previous studies, aversion to fatalities appears to have increased between the early months after the accident and the end of the survey period, and the expected relationship between age and aversion to fatalities is not statistically significant. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. [Risk factors associated with work-related accidents in the construction industry in the Valley of Mexico].

    PubMed

    Sarmiento-Salinas, Rodrigo; López-Rojas, Pablo; Marín-Cotoñieto, Irma Araceli; Godínez-Rocha, Arturo; Haro-García, Luis; Salinas-Tovar, Santiago

    2004-01-01

    Our aim was to describe construction-industry, work-related accident prevalence in, associated factors in, and potential impact on affiliated workers of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, IMSS) in the Valley of Mexico. Prevalent cases in a retrospective case-control design. These include 385 construction-industry workers who were found to have construction work-related accidents in 2001. Controls comprised 385 active construction-industry workers without work-related accident background paired by gender, workplace, and worksite. Work-related accident prevalence in construction workers was 5.5%; most important risk factors and etiology fraction (Ef) included the following: age 16-20 years odds ratio, OR = 1.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.40-10.7, p = 0.001, Ef 0.36; eventual insurance, OR = 3.7, 95% CI, 2.16-26.45, p = 0.001), Ef, 0.72, and no training for job, OR = 5.3, 95% CI, 4.9-69.2, p = 0.01), Ef: 0.81. Variables not showing significance were included salary, work shift, and workday. Work-related accident prevalence maintains its preponderance in the Valley of Mexico construction industry; identified risk factors are potentially modifiable, among which job training acquires unquestionable relevance.

  9. Accident risk associated with smartphone addiction: A study on university students in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hye-Jin; Min, Jin-Young; Kim, Hyun-Jin; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2017-12-01

    Background and aims The smartphone is one of the most popular devices, with the average smartphone usage at 162 min/day and the average length of phone usage at 15.79 hr/week. Although significant concerns have been made about the health effects of smartphone addiction, the relationship between smartphone addiction and accidents has rarely been studied. We examined the association between smartphone addiction and accidents among South Korean university students. Methods A total of 608 college students completed an online survey that included their experience of accidents (total number; traffic accidents; falls/slips; bumps/collisions; being trapped in the subway, impalement, cuts, and exit wounds; and burns or electric shocks), their use of smartphone, the type of smartphone content they most frequently used, and other variables of interests. Smartphone addiction was estimated using Smartphone Addiction Proneness Scale, a standardized measure developed by the National Institution in Korea. Results Compared with normal users, participants who were addicted to smartphones were more likely to have experienced any accidents (OR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.26-2.86), falling from height/slipping (OR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.10-3.91), and bumps/collisions (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.16-2.87). The proportion of participants who used their smartphones mainly for entertainment was significantly high in both the accident (38.76%) and smartphone addiction (36.40%) groups. Discussion and conclusions We suggest that smartphone addiction was significantly associated with total accident, falling/slipping, and bumps/collisions. This finding highlighted the need for increased awareness of the risk of accidents with smartphone addiction.

  10. Wet snow hazard for power lines: a forecast and alert system applied in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonelli, P.; Lacavalla, M.; Marcacci, P.; Mariani, G.; Stella, G.

    2011-09-01

    Wet snow icing accretion on power lines is a real problem in Italy, causing failures on high and medium voltage power supplies during the cold season. The phenomenon is a process in which many large and local scale variables contribute in a complex way and not completely understood. A numerical weather forecast can be used to select areas where wet snow accretion has an high probability of occurring, but a specific accretion model must also be used to estimate the load of an ice sleeve and its hazard. All the information must be carefully selected and shown to the electric grid operator in order to warn him promptly. The authors describe a prototype of forecast and alert system, WOLF (Wet snow Overload aLert and Forecast), developed and applied in Italy. The prototype elaborates the output of a numerical weather prediction model, as temperature, precipitation, wind intensity and direction, to determine the areas of potential risk for the power lines. Then an accretion model computes the ice sleeves' load for different conductor diameters. The highest values are selected and displayed on a WEB-GIS application principally devoted to the electric operator, but also to more expert users. Some experimental field campaigns have been conducted to better parameterize the accretion model. Comparisons between real accidents and forecasted icing conditions are presented and discussed.

  11. Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

    PubMed

    Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

    2011-11-01

    Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  13. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    useful in emergency situations. The backtracking modelling feature and the possibility of importing spill locations from remote servers with observed data (per example, from flight surveillance or remote sensing) allow the potential application to the evaluation of possible contamination sources. The third tool developed is an innovative system to dynamically produce quantified risk levels in real time, integrating best available information from numerical forecasts and the existing monitoring tools. This system provides coastal pollution risk levels associated to potential (or real) oil spill incidents, taking into account regional statistic information on vessel accidents and coastal sensitivity indexes (determined in EROCIPS project), real time vessel information (positioning, cargo type, speed and vessel type) obtained from AIS, best-available metocean numerical forecasts (hydrodynamics, meteorology - including visibility, wave conditions) and simulated scenarios by the oil spill fate and behaviour component of MOHID Water Modelling System (www.mohid.com). Different spill fate and behaviour simulations are continuously generated and processed in background (assuming hypothetical spills from vessels), based on variable vessel information, and metocean conditions, and results from these simulations are used in the quantification the consequences of potential spills. Dynamic Risk Tool was not designed to replace conventional mapping tools, but to complement that type of information with an innovative approach to risk mapping. Taking advantage of interoperability between forecasting models, oil spill simulations, AIS monitoring systems, statistical data and coastal vulnerability, this software can provide to end-users realtime risk levels, allowing an innovative approach to risk mapping, providing decision-makers with an improved decision support model and also an intelligent risk-based traffic monitoring. For instance, this tool allows the prioritisation of individual

  14. SONARC: A Sea Ice Monitoring and Forecasting System to Support Safe Operations and Navigation in Arctic Seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Babiker, M.; Sandven, S.; Muckenhuber, S.; Korosov, A.; Bobylev, L.; Vesman, A.; Mushta, A.; Demchev, D.; Volkov, V.; Smirnov, K.; Hamre, T.

    2015-12-01

    Sea ice monitoring and forecasting systems are important tools for minimizing accident risk and environmental impacts of Arctic maritime operations. Satellite data such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR), combined with atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasting models, navigation models and automatic identification system (AIS) transponder data from ships are essential components of such systems. Here we present first results from the SONARC project (project term: 2015-2017), an international multidisciplinary effort to develop novel and complementary ice monitoring and forecasting systems for vessels and offshore platforms in the Arctic. Automated classification methods (Zakhvatkina et al., 2012) are applied to Sentinel-1 dual-polarization SAR images from the Barents and Kara Sea region to identify ice types (e.g. multi-year ice, level first-year ice, deformed first-year ice, new/young ice, open water) and ridges. Short-term (1-3 days) ice drift forecasts are computed from SAR images using feature tracking and pattern tracking methods (Berg & Eriksson, 2014). Ice classification and drift forecast products are combined with ship positions based on AIS data from a selected period of 3-4 weeks to determine optimal vessel speed and routing in ice. Results illustrate the potential of high-resolution SAR data for near-real-time monitoring and forecasting of Arctic ice conditions. Over the next 3 years, SONARC findings will contribute new knowledge about sea ice in the Arctic while promoting safe and cost-effective shipping, domain awareness, resource management, and environmental protection.

  15. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  16. A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Whan-Seon

    2013-06-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

  17. Communicating With Residents About Risks Following the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Sato, Akiko; Matsui, Shiro; Goto, Aya; Kumagai, Atsushi; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Orita, Makiko; Takamura, Noboru; Kuroda, Yujiro; Ochi, Sae

    2017-03-01

    The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 posed major threats to public health. In response, medical professionals have tried to communicate the risks to residents. To investigate forms of risk communication and to share lessons learned, we reviewed medical professionals' activities in Fukushima Prefecture from the prefectural level to the individual level: public communication through Fukushima Health Management Surveys, a Yorozu ("general") health consultation project, communications of radiological conditions and health promotion in Iitate and Kawauchi villages, dialogues based on whole-body counter, and science communications through online media. The activities generally started with radiation risks, mainly through group-based discussions, but gradually shifted to face-to-face communications to address comprehensive health risks to individuals and well-being. The activities were intended to support residents' decisions and to promote public health in a participatory manner. This article highlights the need for a systematic evaluation of ongoing risk communication practices, and a wider application of successful approaches for Fukushima recovery and for better preparedness for future disasters.

  18. Normal accidents: Living with high-risk technologies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Perrow, Ch.

    1984-01-01

    It was a major nuclear accident, the one at Three Mile Island in 1979, that turned Perrow's attention to accidents in general. A specialist in the sociology of organizations, he soon learned that events at TMI were not simply the result of an engineering failure or the result of operator error; rather, they were a consequence of systems failure. What the author learned from his research into the accident at TMI is that there was no coherent theory of accidents in either the engineering or the social science literature, so he set out to create one. This book discusses themore » science of accident research. Since Perrow is an outsider to all of the many technical fields reviewed in the book, ranging from nuclear power to marine transport to DNA research, experts may challenge his sources and point out his errors. Perrow's central thesis is that accidents are inevitable - that is, they are ''normal'' - in technologies that have two system characteristics that he terms ''interactive complexity'' and ''tight coupling''. Using these concepts, Perrow constructs a theory of systems which he believes to be unique in the literature on accidents and the literature on organizations. His theory concentrates upon the properties of systems themselves, rather than on the errors that owners, designers and operators make in running them. He seeks a more basic explanation than operator error; faulty design or equipment; inadequately trained personnel; or the system is too big, under-financed or mismanaged. Nuclear power in the United States may not survive its current economic and regulatory troubles, but discussion continues. Only a small part of the debate concerns plant safety: economic competitiveness, nuclear arms proliferation and nuclear waste disposal are the salient themes.« less

  19. Hypoglycaemia and accident risk in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with non-insulin antidiabetes drugs

    PubMed Central

    Signorovitch, J E; Macaulay, D; Diener, M; Yan, Y; Wu, E Q; Gruenberger, J-B; Frier, B M

    2013-01-01

    Aims To assess associations between hypoglycaemia and risk of accidents resulting in hospital visits among people with type 2 diabetes receiving antidiabetes drugs without insulin. Methods People with type 2 diabetes who were not treated with insulin were identified from a US-based employer claims database (1998–2010). Following initiation of an antidiabetes drug, the occurrence of accidents resulting in hospital visits was compared between people with, and without, claims for hypoglycaemia using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, prior treatments and prior medical service use. Additional analyses were stratified by age 65 years or older. Results A total of N = 5582 people with claims for hypoglycaemia and N = 27 910 with no such claims were included. Accidents resulting in hospital visits occurred in 5.5 and 2.8% of people with, and without, hypoglycaemia, respectively. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, hypoglycaemia was associated with significantly increased hazards for any accident [hazard ratio (HR) 1.39, 95% CI 1.21–1.59, p < 0.001], accidental falls (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13–1.65, p < 0.001) and motor vehicle accidents (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.18–2.80, p = 0.007). In age-stratified analyses, hypoglycaemia was associated with greater hazards of driving-related accidents in people younger than age 65 and falls in people aged 65 or older. Conclusions In people with type 2 diabetes receiving antidiabetes drugs without insulin, hypoglycaemia was associated with a significantly higher risk of accidents resulting in hospital visits, including accidents related to driving and falls. PMID:23121373

  20. Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

    2014-05-01

    The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand

  1. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.

  2. Medical-encounter mental health diagnoses, non-fatal injury and polypharmacy indicators of risk for accident death in the US Army enlisted soldiers, 2004-2009.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Schroeder, Heather M; Berglund, Patricia A; Colpe, Lisa J; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Hay, Jeffrey D; Jones, Bruce; Little, Roderick J A; Mitchell, Colter; Schoenbaum, Michael; Schulz, Paul; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2018-06-01

    Accidents are a leading cause of deaths in U.S. active duty personnel. Understanding accident deaths during wartime could facilitate future operational planning and inform risk prevention efforts. This study expands prior research, identifying health risk factors associated with U.S. Army accident deaths during the Afghanistan and Iraq war. Military records for 2004-2009 enlisted, active duty, Regular Army soldiers were analyzed using logistic regression modeling to identify mental health, injury, and polypharmacy (multiple narcotic and/or psychotropic medications) predictors of accident deaths for current, previously, and never deployed groups. Deployed soldiers with anxiety diagnoses showed higher risk for accident deaths. Over half had anxiety diagnoses prior to being deployed, suggesting anticipatory anxiety or symptom recurrence may contribute to high risk. For previously deployed soldiers, traumatic brain injury (TBI) indicated higher risk. Two-thirds of these soldiers had first TBI medical-encounter while non-deployed, but mild, combat-related TBIs may have been undetected during deployments. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) predicted higher risk for never deployed soldiers, as did polypharmacy which may relate to reasons for deployment ineligibility. Health risk predictors for Army accident deaths are identified and potential practice and policy implications discussed. Further research could test for replicability and expand models to include unobserved factors or modifiable mechanisms related to high risk. PTSD predicted high risk among those never deployed, suggesting importance of identification, treatment, and prevention of non-combat traumatic events. Finally, risk predictors overlapped with those identified for suicides, suggesting effective intervention might reduce both types of deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Economic development, mobility and traffic accidents in Algeria.

    PubMed

    Bougueroua, M; Carnis, L

    2016-07-01

    The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970-2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Sleep habits and road traffic accident risk for Iranian occupational drivers.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi, Mohammad Hossein; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Dehghani, Mohsen; Niiat, Khosro Sadegh

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the sleep quality and sleep disorders (prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness) among occupational drivers in Iran and to determine which demographic factors and occupational habits are linked to road traffic accidents. In this analytic cross-sectional study 556 occupational road drivers from Shahroud city (in the northeast of Iran) participated, upon a prior verbal informed consent, during 2013-2014. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) standard questionnaire that scored on 7 point scale, the 8-item Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) questionnaire and the 8-question STOP-Bang questionnaire along with demographic information and occupational data were used. To explore the independent factors associated with odds of poor sleep quality and road accident, multiple logistic regression models were used. Prevalence of previous road accidents, sleepiness while driving, and obstructive sleep apnea scored ≥ 3 in the study, and drivers accounted for 23.8%, 29%, and 24.8%, respectively. The global mean score of sleep quality and excessive sleepiness score were 5.2 and 4.8, respectively. The main factors related to the odds of poor sleep quality were snoring (odds ratio (OR) = 2.34; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-4.77), smoking (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.15-3.97), and driving times in a day (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03-1.21). The Epworth Sleepiness Scale (OR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07-1.23) and suffering from apnea (OR = 4.89; 95% CI: 1.07-23.83) were the best predictors for odds (increased risk) of road accidents. A considerable proportion of Iranian drivers had records of road accidents; poor sleep quality, sleepiness while driving, and sleep disorder breathing (obstructive sleep apnea - OSA). Snoring, smoking, driving time in a day, excessive sleepiness, and presumably apnea increase the odds of poor sleep quality and road traffic accident for Iranian occupational drivers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under

  5. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  6. Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-05-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

  7. A Point System to Forecast Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Before and After Treatment Among Persons with Chronic Hepatitis C.

    PubMed

    Xing, Jian; Spradling, Philip R; Moorman, Anne C; Holmberg, Scott D; Teshale, Eyasu H; Rupp, Loralee B; Gordon, Stuart C; Lu, Mei; Boscarino, Joseph A; Schmidt, Mark A; Trinacty, Connie M; Xu, Fujie

    2017-11-01

    Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be difficult to determine in the clinical setting. Develop a scoring system to forecast HCC risk among patients with chronic hepatitis C. Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study collected during 2005-2014, we derived HCC risk scores for males and females using an extended Cox model with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a time-dependent variables and mean Kaplan-Meier survival functions from patient data at two study sites, and used data collected at two separate sites for external validation. For model calibration, we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit statistic to examine differences between predicted and observed risk. Of 12,469 patients (1628 with a history of sustained viral response [SVR]), 504 developed HCC; median follow-up was 6 years. Final predictors in the model included age, alcohol abuse, interferon-based treatment response, and APRI. Point values, ranging from -3 to 14 (males) and -3 to 12 (females), were established using hazard ratios of the predictors aligned with 1-, 3-, and 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities of HCC. Discriminatory capacity was high (c-index 0.82 males and 0.84 females) and external calibration demonstrated no differences between predicted and observed HCC risk for 1-, 3-, and 5-year forecasts among males (all p values >0.97) and for 3- and 5-year risk among females (all p values >0.87). This scoring system, based on age, alcohol abuse history, treatment response, and APRI, can be used to forecast up to a 5-year risk of HCC among hepatitis C patients before and after SVR.

  8. Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

    2009-08-15

    Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

  9. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Treesearch

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  10. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  11. Systematic strategies for the third industrial accident prevention plan in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kang, Young-sig; Yang, Sung-hwan; Kim, Tae-gu; Kim, Day-sung

    2012-01-01

    To minimize industrial accidents, it's critical to evaluate a firm's priorities for prevention factors and strategies since such evaluation provides decisive information for preventing industrial accidents and maintaining safety management. Therefore, this paper proposes the evaluation of priorities through statistical testing of prevention factors with a cause analysis in a cause and effect model. A priority matrix criterion is proposed to apply the ranking and for the objectivity of questionnaire results. This paper used regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) to analyze trends of accident data that will lead to an accurate prediction. This paper standardized the questionnaire results of workers and managers in manufacturing and construction companies with less than 300 employees, located in the central Korean metropolitan areas where fatal accidents have occurred. Finally, a strategy was provided to construct safety management for the third industrial accident prevention plan and a forecasting method for occupational accident rates and fatality rates for occupational accidents per 10,000 people.

  12. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-10-01

    American GFS models, and informally applied on the Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) model. The current CI equation is as follows...Reen B, Penc R. Investigating surface bias errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) model using a Geographic Information System (GIS). J...Forecast model ( WRF -ARW) with extensions that might include finer terrain resolutions and more detailed representations of the underlying atmospheric

  13. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  14. Management of Ultimate Risk of Nuclear Power Plants by Source Terms - Lessons Learned from the Chernobyl Accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Genn Saji

    2006-07-01

    The term 'ultimate risk' is used here to describe the probabilities and radiological consequences that should be incorporated in siting, containment design and accident management of nuclear power plants for hypothetical accidents. It is closely related with the source terms specified in siting criteria which assures an adequate separation of radioactive inventories of the plants from the public, in the event of a hypothetical and severe accident situation. The author would like to point out that current source terms which are based on the information from the Windscale accident (1957) through TID-14844 are very outdated and do not incorporate lessonsmore » learned from either the Three Miles Island (TMI, 1979) nor Chernobyl accident (1986), two of the most severe accidents ever experienced. As a result of the observations of benign radionuclides released at TMI, the technical community in the US felt that a more realistic evaluation of severe reactor accident source terms was necessary. In this background, the 'source term research project' was organized in 1984 to respond to these challenges. Unfortunately, soon after the time of the final report from this project was released, the Chernobyl accident occurred. Due to the enormous consequences induced by then accident, the one time optimistic perspectives in establishing a more realistic source term were completely shattered. The Chernobyl accident, with its human death toll and dispersion of a large part of the fission fragments inventories into the environment, created a significant degradation in the public's acceptance of nuclear energy throughout the world. In spite of this, nuclear communities have been prudent in responding to the public's anxiety towards the ultimate safety of nuclear plants, since there still remained many unknown points revolving around the mechanism of the Chernobyl accident. In order to resolve some of these mysteries, the author has performed a scoping study of the dispersion and

  15. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  16. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  17. Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straume, Anne Grete; N'dri Koffi, Ernest; Nodop, Katrin

    1998-11-01

    Numerous numerical models are developed to predict long-range transport of hazardous air pollution in connection with accidental releases. When evaluating and improving such a model, it is important to detect uncertainties connected to the meteorological input data. A Lagrangian dispersion model, the Severe Nuclear Accident Program, is used here to investigate the effect of errors in the meteorological input data due to analysis error. An ensemble forecast, produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is then used as model input. The ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the initial meteorological fields of the weather forecast. The perturbations are calculated from singular vectors meant to represent possible forecast developments generated by instabilities in the atmospheric flow during the early part of the forecast. The instabilities are generated by errors in the analyzed fields. Puff predictions from the dispersion model, using ensemble forecast input, are compared, and a large spread in the predicted puff evolutions is found. This shows that the quality of the meteorological input data is important for the success of the dispersion model. In order to evaluate the dispersion model, the calculations are compared with measurements from the European Tracer Experiment. The model manages to predict the measured puff evolution concerning shape and time of arrival to a fairly high extent, up to 60 h after the start of the release. The modeled puff is still too narrow in the advection direction.

  18. Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semmens, K. A.; Montz, B.; Carr, R. H.; Maxfield, K.; Ahnert, P.; Shedd, R.; Elliott, J.

    2017-12-01

    When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protect life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. In 2016 and 2017, building on previous research about the use of uncertainty forecast products, and with funding from NOAA's CSTAR program, East Carolina University and Nurture Nature Center (a non-profit organization with a focus on flooding issues, based in Easton, PA) conducted a research project to understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities. These audiences include community residents, emergency managers and water resource managers. The research team held focus groups in Jefferson County, WV and Frederick County, MD, to test a new suite of products from the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). HEFS is an ensemble system that provides short and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 hours to 1 year, showing uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. The goal of the study was to assess the utility of the HEFS products, identify the barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggest modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for residential, emergency managers, and water resource managers. The research team worked with the Sterling, VA Weather Forecast Office and the Middle Atlantic River Forecast center to develop a weather scenario as the basis of the focus group discussions, which also included pre and post session surveys. This presentation shares the findings from those focus group discussions and surveys, including recommendations for revisions to

  19. Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-10-01

    The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

  20. Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai.

    PubMed

    Abdalla, Ibrahim M

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines crash and safety statistics from the Emirate of Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making this population at greater risk of crashes compared to other countries. In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe. Fatality and injury data used in the analysis mainly come from Dubai Emirate police reports and from other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis employed logit modeling, and possible predictors available in Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers that are deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but it is also associated with other factors. Results provide epidemiological inferences about traffic mortality and morbidity, and suggest priorities and appropriate measures for intervention, targeting resident population.

  1. Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Moradi, Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5-15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (<5 m: OR = 8.4, 95% CI: 3.3-21.5; 5-8 m: OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.8-12.2), distance from home to school((<100 m: OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0-2.8), existence of parking lot (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0-2.3), traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6-6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.

  2. Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Adoption by Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garbrecht, Jurgen; Meinke, Holger; Sivakumar, Mannava V. K.; Motha, Raymond P.; Salinger, Michael J.

    2005-06-01

    Recent advances in atmospheric and ocean sciences and a better understanding of the global climate have led to skillful climate forecasts at seasonal to interannual timescales, even in midlatitudes. These scientific advances and forecasting capabilities have opened the door to practical applications that benefit society. The benefits include the reduction of weather/climate related risks and vulnerability, increased economic opportunities, enhanced food security, mitigation of adverse climate impacts, protection of environmental quality, and so forth. Agriculture in particular can benefit substantially from accurate long-lead seasonal climate forecasts. Indeed, agricultural production very much depends on weather, climate, and water availability, and unexpected departures from anticipated climate conditions can thwart the best laid management plans. Timely climate forecasts offer means to reduce losses in drought years, increase profitability in good years, deal more effectively with climate variability, and choose from targeted risk-management strategies. In addition to benefiting farmers, forecasts can also help marketing systems and downstream users prepare for anticipated production outcomes and associated consequences.

  3. Modeling when and where a secondary accident occurs.

    PubMed

    Wang, Junhua; Liu, Boya; Fu, Ting; Liu, Shuo; Stipancic, Joshua

    2018-01-31

    The occurrence of secondary accidents leads to traffic congestion and road safety issues. Secondary accident prevention has become a major consideration in traffic incident management. This paper investigates the location and time of a potential secondary accident after the occurrence of an initial traffic accident. With accident data and traffic loop data collected over three years from California interstate freeways, a shock wave-based method was introduced to identify secondary accidents. A linear regression model and two machine learning algorithms, including a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), were implemented to explore the distance and time gap between the initial and secondary accidents using inputs of crash severity, violation category, weather condition, tow away, road surface condition, lighting, parties involved, traffic volume, duration, and shock wave speed generated by the primary accident. From the results, the linear regression model was inadequate in describing the effect of most variables and its goodness-of-fit and accuracy in prediction was relatively poor. In the training programs, the BPNN and LSSVM demonstrated adequate goodness-of-fit, though the BPNN was superior with a higher CORR and lower MSE. The BPNN model also outperformed the LSSVM in time prediction, while both failed to provide adequate distance prediction. Therefore, the BPNN model could be used to forecast the time gap between initial and secondary accidents, which could be used by decision makers and incident management agencies to prevent or reduce secondary collisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk Analysis for Public Consumption: Media Coverage of the Ginna Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dunwoody, Sharon; And Others

    Researchers have determined that the lay public makes risk judgments in ways that are very different from those advocated by scientists. Noting that these differences have caused considerable concern among those who promote and regulate health and safety, a study examined media coverage of the accident at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear power plant…

  5. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S; Takamura, N; Ohtsuru, A; Suzuki, S

    2016-09-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer. © World Health Organisation 2016. All rights reserved. The World Health Organization has granted Oxford University Press permission for the reproduction of this article.

  6. Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

  7. Willingness to pay for mortality risk reduction for traffic accidents in Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Mon, Ei Ei; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Khampirat, Buratin; Satiennam, Wichuda; Ratanavaraha, Vatanavongs

    2018-05-30

    The dramatic increase in vehicle ownership in Myanmar over the past few years has resulted in an alarming increase in traffic accidents. Thus, road safety at the national level needs to be improved urgently in order to reduce the costs associated with traffic accidents and to assist policy makers in making economically efficient resource allocation decisions for road safety improvements. This research was conducted to determine the costs related to fatality risk reductions using a willingness to pay (WTP) approach for motorcyclists, car drivers, and bus passengers in Myanmar. Face-to-face interviews with contingent valuation (CV) and a payment card questionnaire approach was employed for the data collection; multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to determine the factors influencing WTP. The resulting median and mean for the value of statistical life (VSL) were found to be MMK 118.062 million (US$ 98,385) to MMK 162.854 million (US$ 135,712), respectively. Therefore, the total cost of death was estimated to range from MMK 594.681 billion (US$ 495.567 million) to MMK 820.296 billion (US$ 683.580 million) in 2015. In addition, the WTP was found to be significantly associated with age, family status, education, occupation, individual income, household income, the vehicle used, exposure to traffic, drunk driving, personal experiences, and the perceived risk of traffic accidents. This study might be helpful in prioritization of road safety related projects to get greatest benefit by choosing most cost effective projects. This study might assist the decision-making for road safety budget allocations and policy development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  9. Predictors of Suicide and Accident Death in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

    PubMed Central

    Schoenbaum, Michael; Kessler, Ronald C.; Gilman, Stephen E.; Colpe, Lisa J.; Heeringa, Steven G.; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Cox, Kenneth L.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multicomponent study designed to generate actionable recommendations to reduce Army suicides and increase knowledge of risk and resilience factors for suicidality. OBJECTIVES To present data on prevalence, trends, and basic sociodemographic and Army experience correlates of suicides and accident deaths among active duty Regular Army soldiers between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2009, and thereby establish a foundation for future Army STARRS investigations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Analysis of trends and predictors of suicide and accident deaths using Army and Department of Defense administrative data systems. Participants were all members of the US Regular Army serving at any time between 2004 and 2009. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Death by suicide or accident during active Army service. RESULTS The suicide rate rose between 2004 and 2009 among never deployed and currently and previously deployed Regular Army soldiers. The accident death rate fell sharply among currently deployed soldiers, remained constant among the previously deployed, and trended upward among the never deployed. Increased suicide risk was associated with being a man (or a woman during deployment), white race/ethnicity, junior enlisted rank, recent demotion, and current or previous deployment. Sociodemographic and Army experience predictors were generally similar for suicides and accident deaths. Time trends in these predictors and in the Army’s increased use of accession waivers (which relaxed some qualifications for new soldiers) do not explain the rise in Army suicides. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Predictors of Army suicides were largely similar to those reported elsewhere for civilians, although some predictors distinct to Army service emerged that deserve more in-depth analysis. The existence of a time trend in suicide risk among never-deployed soldiers argues indirectly against the view

  10. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communicationmore » skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety.« less

  11. Stakeholder Application of NOAA/NWS River Forecasts: Oil and Water?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, K.; Averyt, K.; Bardlsey, T.; Owen, G.

    2011-12-01

    The literature strongly suggests that water management seldom uses forecasts for decision making despite the proven skill of the prediction system and the obvious application of these forecasts to mitigate risk. The literature also suggests that forecast usage is motivated most strongly by risk of failure of the water management objectives. In the semi-arid western United States where water demand has grown such that it roughly equals the long term supply, risk of failure has become pervasive. In the Colorado Basin, the US National Weather Service's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has partnered with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) to develop a toolkit for stakeholder engagement and application of seasonal streamflow predictions. This toolkit has been used to facilitate several meetings both in the Colorado Basin and elsewhere to assess the factors that motivate, deter, and improve the application of forecasts in this region. The toolkit includes idealized (1) scenario exercises where participants are asked to apply forecasts to real world water management problems, (2) web based exercises where participants gain experience with forecasts and other online forecast tools, and (3) surveys that assess respondents' experience with and perceptions of forecasts and climate science. This talk will present preliminary results from this effort as well as how the CBRFC has adopted the results into its stakeholder engagement strategies.

  12. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    PubMed

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  13. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  14. Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lewnard, Joseph A; Jirmanus, Lara; Júnior, Nivison Nery; Machado, Paulo R; Glesby, Marshall J; Ko, Albert I; Carvalho, Edgar M; Schriefer, Albert; Weinberger, Daniel M

    2014-10-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.

  15. Anatomy of an Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    1984-01-01

    The findings of industrial safety engineers in the areas of accident causation and prevention are wholly applicable to adventure programs. Adventure education instructors can use safety engineering concepts to assess the risk in a particular activity, understand factors that cause accidents, and intervene to minimize injuries and damages if…

  16. Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

  17. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  18. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  19. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  20. Risk to the public from carbon fibers released in civil aircraft accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Because carbon fibers are strong, stiff, and lightweight, they are attractive for use in composite structures. Because they also have high electrical conductivity, free carbon fibers settling on electrical conductors can cause malfunctions. If released from the composite by burning, the fibers may become a hazard to exposed electrical and electronic equipment. As part of a Federal study of the potential hazard associated with the use of carbon fibers, NASA assessed the public risk associated with crash fire accidents of civil aircraft. The NASA study projected a dramatic increase in the use of carbon composites in civil aircraft and developed technical data to support the risk assessment. Personal injury was found to be extremely unlikely. In 1993, the year chosen as a focus for the study, the expected annual cost of damage caused by released carbon fibers is only $1000. Even the worst-case carbon fiber incident simulated (costing $178,000 once in 34,000 years) was relatively low-cost compared with the usual air transport accident cost. On the basis of these observations, the NASA study concluded that exploitation of composites should continue, that additional protection of avionics is unnecessary, and that development of alternate materials specifically to overcome this problem is not justified.

  1. Mid-Term Probabilistic Forecast of Oil Spill Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castanedo, S.; Abascal, A. J.; Cardenas, M.; Medina, R.; Guanche, Y.; Mendez, F. J.; Camus, P.

    2012-12-01

    There is increasing concern about the threat posed by oil spills to the coastal environment. This is reflected in the promulgation of various national and international standards among which are those that require companies whose activities involves oil spill risk, to have oil pollution emergency plans or similar arrangements for responding promptly and effectively to oil pollution incidents. Operational oceanography systems (OOS) that provide decision makers with oil spill trajectory forecasting, have demonstrated their usefulness in recent accidents (Castanedo et al., 2006). In recent years, many national and regional OOS have been setup focusing on short-term oil spill forecast (up to 5 days). However, recent accidental marine oil spills (Prestige in Spain, Deep Horizon in Gulf of Mexico) have revealed the importance of having larger prediction horizons (up to 15 days) in regional-scale areas. In this work, we have developed a methodology to provide probabilistic oil spill forecast based on numerical modelling and statistical methods. The main components of this approach are: (1) Use of high resolution long-term (1948-2009) historical hourly data bases of wind, wind-induced currents and astronomical tide currents obtained using state-of-the-art numerical models; (2) classification of representative wind field patterns (n=100) using clustering techniques based on PCA and K-means algorithms (Camus et al., 2011); (3) determination of the cluster occurrence probability and the stochastic matrix (matrix of transition of probability or Markov matrix), p_ij, (probability of moving from a cluster "i" to a cluster "j" in one time step); (4) Initial state for mid-term simulations is obtained from available wind forecast using nearest-neighbors analog method; (5) 15-days Stochastic Markov Chain simulations (m=1000) are launched; (6) Corresponding oil spill trajectories are carried out by TESEO Lagrangian transport model (Abascal et al., 2009); (7) probability maps are

  2. Meteor Shower Forecasting for Spacecraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moorhead, Althea V.; Cooke, William J.; Campbell-Brown, Margaret D.

    2017-01-01

    Although sporadic meteoroids generally pose a much greater hazard to spacecraft than shower meteoroids, meteor showers can significantly increase the risk of damage over short time periods. Because showers are brief, it is sometimes possible to mitigate the risk operationally, which requires accurate predictions of shower activity. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) generates an annual meteor shower forecast that describes the variations in the near-Earth meteoroid flux produced by meteor showers, and presents the shower flux both in absolute terms and relative to the sporadic flux. The shower forecast incorporates model predictions of annual variations in shower activity and quotes fluxes to several limiting particle kinetic energies. In this work, we describe our forecasting methods and present recent improvements to the temporal profiles based on flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR).

  3. [Implementation of safety devices: biological accident prevention].

    PubMed

    Catalán Gómez, M Teresa; Sol Vidiella, Josep; Castellà Castellà, Manel; Castells Bo, Carolina; Losada Pla, Nuria; Espuny, Javier Lluís

    2010-04-01

    Accidental exposures to blood and biological material were the most frequent and potentially serious accidents in healthcare workers, reported in the Prevention of Occupational Risks Unit within 2002. Evaluate the biological percutaneous accidents decrease after a progressive introduction of safety devices. Biological accidents produced between 2.002 and 2.006 were analyzed and reported by the injured healthcare workers to the Level 2b Hospital Prevention of Occupational Risk Unit with 238 beds and 750 employees. The key of the study was the safety devices (peripheral i.v. catheter, needleless i.v. access device and capillary blood collection lancet). Within 2002, 54 percutaneous biological accidents were registered and 19 in 2006, that represents a 64.8% decreased. There has been no safety devices accident reported involving these material. Accidents registered during the implantation period occurred because safety devices were not used at that time. Safety devices have proven to be effective in reducing needle stick percutaneous accidents, so that they are a good choice in the primary prevention of biological accidents contact.

  4. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  5. Safety regulations, firm size, and the risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Iledare, O.O.; Pulsipher, A.G.; Baumann, R.H.

    1996-12-31

    The current expanded role of smaller independent oil producers in the OCS has led to concern about the possibility of increased risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico OCS. In addition, questions have been posed concerning the effects of the Minerals Management Service`s (MMS) safety regulations and inspection program, firm size, and industry practices on the risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico OCS. The specific purposes of the study reported in this paper were to ascertain (1) whether any empirical justification exists for the widespread concern that an increase in independentsmore » relative share of E&P operations in the Gulf OCS region will be detrimental to safety, and (2) whether MMS policies and safety programs have reduced the frequency or severity of accidents on the OCS. Our statistical and descriptive analyses of data on accidents from MMS provide no statistical evidence to support the apprehension that an expanded role for independents in E&P activity constitutes any major threat to safety on the OCS. Further, the results of our econometrics analysis confirm the expectation that the more effective MMS inspectors are at detecting incidents of noncompliance the lower the rate of accidents on the OCS is, ceteris paribus. In addition the results indicate that the variability in platform exposure years--cumulative age of operating platform--in comparison to other factors explains a significant portion of the variation in accidents per operating platform. That is, the platform aging process provides more opportunity for accidents than any other contributing factors. Our econometrics analysis also suggests that, if the other factors contributing to offshore accidents are held constant, the responsiveness of accident rate to drilling activity is inelastic while the response of accident rate to production activity levels is elastic.« less

  6. Risky Business: Development, Communication and Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Inter-seasonal and longer hydroclimatic forecasts have been made increasingly in the last two decades following the increase in ENSO activity since the early 1980s and the success in seasonal ENSO forecasting. Yet, the number of examples of systematic use of these forecasts and their incorporation into water systems operation continue to be few. This may be due in part to the limited skill in such forecasts over much of the world, but is also likely due to the limited evolution of methods and opportunities to "safely" use uncertain forecasts. There has been a trend to rely more on "physically based" rather than "physically informed" empirical forecasts, and this may in part explain the limited success in developing usable products in more locations. Given the limited skill, forecasters have tended to "dumb" down their forecasts - either formally or subjectively shrinking the forecasts towards climatology, or reducing them to tercile forecasts that serve to obscure the potential information in the forecast. Consequently, the potential utility of such forecasts for decision making is compromised. Water system operating rules are often designed to be robust in the face of historical climate variability, and consequently are adapted to the potential conditions that a forecast seeks to inform. In such situations, there is understandable reluctance by managers to use the forecasts as presented, except in special cases where an alternate course of action is pragmatically appealing in any case. In this talk, I review opportunities to present targeted forecasts for use with decision systems that directly address climate risk and the risk induced by unbiased yet uncertain forecasts, focusing especially on extreme events and water allocation in a competitive environment. Examples from Brazil and India covering surface and ground water conjunctive use strategies that could potentially be insured and lead to improvements over the traditional system operation and resource

  7. Information Sources as Explanatory Variables for the Belgian Health-Related Risk Perception of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Vyncke, Bart; Perko, Tanja; Van Gorp, Baldwin

    2017-03-01

    The media play an important role in risk communication, providing information about accidents, both nearby and far away. Each media source has its own presentation style, which could influence how the audience perceives the presented risk. This study investigates the explanatory power of 12 information sources (traditional media, new media, social media, and interpersonal communication) for the perceived risk posed by radiation released from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant on respondents' own health and that of the population in general. The analysis controlled for attitude toward nuclear energy, gender, education, satisfaction with the media coverage, and duration of attention paid to the coverage. The study uses a large empirical data set from a public opinion survey, which is representative for the Belgian population with respect to six sociodemographic variables. Results show that three information sources are significant regressors of perceived health-related risk of the nuclear accident: television, interpersonal communication, and the category of miscellaneous online sources. More favorable attitudes toward nuclear power, longer attention to the coverage, and higher satisfaction with the provided information lead to lower risk perception. Taken together, the results suggest that the media can indeed have a modest influence on how the audience perceives a risk. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. A Decision Support System for effective use of probability forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Kleermaeker, Simone; Verkade, Jan

    2013-04-01

    Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts. These forecasts, however, are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasting agencies to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties and thus produce probabilistic forecasts. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a stricter separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. However, simply having probabilistic forecasts available is not sufficient to realise the associated benefits. Additional effort is required in areas such as forecast visualisation and communication, decision making in uncertainty and forecast verification. Also, revised separation of responsibilities requires a shift in institutional arrangements and responsibilities. A recent study identified a number of additional issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. When moving from deterministic to probability forecasting, a dimension is added to an already multi-dimensional problem; this makes it increasingly difficult for forecast users to extract relevant information from a forecast. A second issue is that while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be present. For example, in many cases no estimates of flood damage, of costs of management measures and of damage reduction are available. This paper presents the results of the study, including some suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development of the DSS is outlined.

  9. NWS Operational Requirements for Ensemble-Based Hydrologic Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, R. K.

    2008-12-01

    Ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts have been developed and issued by National Weather Service (NWS) staff at River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for many years. Used principally for long-range water supply forecasts, only the uncertainty associated with weather and climate have been traditionally considered. As technology and societal expectations of resource managers increase, the use and desire for risk-based decision support tools has also increased. These tools require forecast information that includes reliable uncertainty estimates across all time and space domains. The development of reliable uncertainty estimates associated with hydrologic forecasts is being actively pursued within the United States and internationally. This presentation will describe the challenges, components, and requirements for operational hydrologic ensemble-based forecasts from the perspective of a NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center.

  10. Study on the Application of the Kent Index Method on the Risk Assessment of Disastrous Accidents in Subway Engineering

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Hao; Wang, Mingyang; Yang, Baohuai; Rong, Xiaoli

    2013-01-01

    With the development of subway engineering, according to uncertain factors and serious accidents involved in the construction of subways, implementing risk assessment is necessary and may bring a number of benefits for construction safety. The Kent index method extensively used in pipeline construction is improved to make risk assessment much more practical for the risk assessment of disastrous accidents in subway engineering. In the improved method, the indexes are divided into four categories, namely, basic, design, construction, and consequence indexes. In this study, a risk assessment model containing four kinds of indexes is provided. Three kinds of risk occurrence modes are listed. The probability index model which considers the relativity of the indexes is established according to the risk occurrence modes. The model provides the risk assessment process through the fault tree method and has been applied in the risk assessment of Nanjing subway's river-crossing tunnel construction. Based on the assessment results, the builders were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. The need for further research is discussed. Overall, this method may provide a tool for the builders, and improve the safety of the construction. PMID:23710136

  11. Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lewnard, Joseph A.; Jirmanus, Lara; Júnior, Nivison Nery; Machado, Paulo R.; Glesby, Marshall J.; Ko, Albert I.; Carvalho, Edgar M.; Schriefer, Albert; Weinberger, Daniel M.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. Significance These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets. PMID:25356734

  12. Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Jean-Louis; Gadegbeku, Blandine; Wu, Dan; Viallon, Vivian; Laumon, Bernard

    2017-01-01

    Introduction This research aims to estimate the relative risks of responsibility for a fatal accident linked to driving under the influence of cannabis or alcohol, the prevalence of these influences among drivers and the corresponding attributable risk ratios. A secondary goal is to estimate the same items for three other groups of illicit drugs (amphetamines, cocaine and opiates), and to compare the results to a similar study carried out in France between 2001 and 2003. Methodology Police procedures for fatal accidents in Metropolitan France during 2011 were analyzed and 300 characteristics encoded to provide a database of 4,059 drivers. Information on alcohol and four groups of illicit drugs derived from tests for positivity and potential confirmation through blood analysis. The study compares drivers responsible for causing the accident, that is to say having directly contributed to its occurrence, to drivers involved in an accident for which they were not responsible, and who can be assimilated to drivers in general. Results The proportion of persons driving under the influence of alcohol is estimated at 2.1% (95% CI: 1.4–2.8) and under the influence of cannabis at 3.4% (2.9%-3.9%). Drivers under the influence of alcohol are 17.8 times (12.1–26.1) more likely to be responsible for a fatal accident, and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever exceeded the legal limit for alcohol is estimated at 27.7% (26.0%-29.4%). Drivers under the influence of cannabis multiply their risk of being responsible for causing a fatal accident by 1.65 (1.16–2.34), and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever drove under the influence of cannabis is estimated at 4.2% (3.7%-4.8%). An increased risk linked to opiate use has also been found to be significant, but with low prevalence, requiring caution in interpreting this finding. Other groups of narcotics have even lower prevalence, and the associated

  13. Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jean-Louis; Gadegbeku, Blandine; Wu, Dan; Viallon, Vivian; Laumon, Bernard

    2017-01-01

    This research aims to estimate the relative risks of responsibility for a fatal accident linked to driving under the influence of cannabis or alcohol, the prevalence of these influences among drivers and the corresponding attributable risk ratios. A secondary goal is to estimate the same items for three other groups of illicit drugs (amphetamines, cocaine and opiates), and to compare the results to a similar study carried out in France between 2001 and 2003. Police procedures for fatal accidents in Metropolitan France during 2011 were analyzed and 300 characteristics encoded to provide a database of 4,059 drivers. Information on alcohol and four groups of illicit drugs derived from tests for positivity and potential confirmation through blood analysis. The study compares drivers responsible for causing the accident, that is to say having directly contributed to its occurrence, to drivers involved in an accident for which they were not responsible, and who can be assimilated to drivers in general. The proportion of persons driving under the influence of alcohol is estimated at 2.1% (95% CI: 1.4-2.8) and under the influence of cannabis at 3.4% (2.9%-3.9%). Drivers under the influence of alcohol are 17.8 times (12.1-26.1) more likely to be responsible for a fatal accident, and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever exceeded the legal limit for alcohol is estimated at 27.7% (26.0%-29.4%). Drivers under the influence of cannabis multiply their risk of being responsible for causing a fatal accident by 1.65 (1.16-2.34), and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever drove under the influence of cannabis is estimated at 4.2% (3.7%-4.8%). An increased risk linked to opiate use has also been found to be significant, but with low prevalence, requiring caution in interpreting this finding. Other groups of narcotics have even lower prevalence, and the associated extra risks cannot be assessed. Almost a

  14. Insomnia and accidents: cross-sectional study (EQUINOX) on sleep-related home, work and car accidents in 5293 subjects with insomnia from 10 countries.

    PubMed

    Léger, Damien; Bayon, Virginie; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre; Ement, Philippe; Metlaine, Arnaud; Chennaoui, Mounir; Faraut, Brice

    2014-04-01

    The link between sleepiness and the risk of motor vehicle accidents is well known, but little is understood regarding the risk of home, work and car accidents of subjects with insomnia. An international cross-sectional survey was conducted across 10 countries in a population of subjects with sleep disturbances. Primary care physicians administered a questionnaire that included assessment of sociodemographic characteristics, sleep disturbance and accidents (motor vehicle, work and home) related to sleep problems to each subject. Insomnia was defined using the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD-10) criteria. A total of 5293 subjects were included in the study, of whom 20.9% reported having had at least one home accident within the past 12 months, 10.1% at least one work accident, 9% reported having fallen asleep while driving at least once and 4.1% reported having had at least one car accident related to their sleepiness. All types of accident were reported more commonly by subjects living in urban compared to other residential areas. Car accidents were reported more commonly by employed subjects, whereas home injuries were reported more frequently by the unemployed. Car accidents were reported more frequently by males than by females, whereas home accidents were reported more commonly by females. Patients with insomnia have high rates of home accidents, car accidents and work accidents related to sleep disturbances independently of any adverse effects of hypnotic treatments. Reduced total sleep time may be one factor explaining the high risk of accidents in individuals who complain of insomnia. © 2013 European Sleep Research Society.

  15. Medical weather forecast as the risk management facilities of meteopathia with population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Efimenko, Natalya; Chalaya, Elena; Povolotskaia, Nina; Senik, Irina; Topuriya, David

    2013-04-01

    Frequent cases of extreme deviations of weather conditions and anthropogenic press on the Earth atmosphere are external stressors and provoke the development of meteopathic reactions (DMR) with people suffering from dysadaptation (DA). [EGU2011-6740-3; EGU2012-6103]. The influence of weather factors on the person is multivariate which complicates the search of physiological indicators of this exposure. The results of long-term researches of meteodependence and risks development of weather-conditional pathologic reactions with people suffering from DA (1640 observed people) in various systems and human body subsystems (thermal control, cardiovascular, respiratory, vegetative and central nervous systems) were taken as a principle of calculation methodology of estimation of weather pathogenicity (EWP). This estimation is used in the system of medical weather forecast (MWF) in the resorts of Caucasian Mineral Waters and is marked as an organized structure in prevention of DMR risks. Nowadays MWF efficiency is from 78% to 95% as it depends not only on the performance of models of dynamic, synoptic, heliogeophysical forecasts, but also on the underestimation of environmental factors which often act as dominating stressors. The program of atmospheric global system monitoring and real-time forecasts doesn`t include atmospheric electricity factors, ionization factors, range and chemistry factors of aerosol particles and organic volatile plant matters in atmospheric boundary layer. New fractality researches of control mechanisms processes providing adaptation to external and internal environmental conditions with patients suffering from DA allowed us to understand the meaning of the phenomenon of structural similarity and similarity of physiological response processes to the influence of weather types with similar dominating environmental factors. Particularly, atmospheric conditions should be regarded as stressor natural factors that create deionization conditions of the

  16. Emotional reactivity: Beware its involvement in traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    M'bailara, Katia; Atzeni, Thierry; Contrand, Benjamin; Derguy, Cyrielle; Bouvard, Manuel-Pierre; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Galéra, Cédric

    2018-04-01

    Reducing risk attributable to traffic accidents is a public health challenge. Research into risk factors in the area is now moving towards identification of the psychological factors involved, particularly emotional states. The aim of this study was to evaluate the link between emotional reactivity and responsibility in road traffic accidents. We hypothesized that the more one's emotional reactivity is disturbed, the greater the likelihood of being responsible for a traffic accident. This case-control study was based on a sample of 955 drivers injured in a motor vehicle crash. Responsibility levels were determined with a standardized method adapted from the quantitative Robertson and Drummer crash responsibility instrument. Emotional reactivity was assessed with the MATHYS. Hierarchical cluster analysis discriminated four distinctive driver's emotional reactivity profiles: basic emotional reactivity (54%), mild emotional hyper-reactivity (29%), emotional hyper-reactivity (11%) and emotional hypo-reactivity (6%). Drivers who demonstrated emotional hypo-reactivity had a 2.3-fold greater risk of being responsible for a traffic accident than those with basic emotional reactivity. Drivers' responsibility in traffic accidents depends on their emotional status. The latter can change the ability of drivers, modifying their behavior and thus increasing their propensity to exhibit risk behavior and to cause traffic accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence.

    PubMed

    Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016-2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences.

  18. Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence

    PubMed Central

    Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences. PMID:28924610

  19. Distribution and ecological risk assessment of cadmium in water and sediment in Longjiang River, China: Implication on water quality management after pollution accident.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xue-Min; Yao, Ling-Ai; Ma, Qian-Li; Zhou, Guang-Jie; Wang, Li; Fang, Qiao-Li; Xu, Zhen-Cheng

    2018-03-01

    In early January 2012, the Longjiang River was subjected to a serious cadmium (Cd) pollution accident, which led to negatively environmental and social impacts. A series of measures of emergency treatment were subsequently taken to reduce water Cd level. However, little information was available about the change of Cd level in environmental matrices and long-term effect of this pollution accident to aquatic ecosystem. Thus, this study investigated the distribution of Cd in water and sediment of this river for two years since pollution accident, as well as assessed its ecological risk to aquatic ecosystem of Longjiang River. The results showed that it was efficient for taking emergency treatment measures to decrease water Cd concentration to below the threshold value of national drinking water quality standard of China. There was high risk (HQ > 1) to aquatic ecosystem in some of reaches between February and July 2012, but low or no risk (HQ < 1) between December 2012 to December 2013. Cd concentration in sediment in polluted reaches increased after pollution accident and emergency treatments in 2012, but decreased in 2013. During flood period, the sediment containing high concentration of Cd in Longjiang River was migrated to downstream Liujiang River. Cd content in sediment was reduced to background level after two years of the pollution accident occurrence. The study provides basic information about Cd levels in different media after pollution accident, which is helpful in evaluating the effectiveness of emergency treatments and the variation of ecological risk, as well as in conducting water management and conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-11-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  1. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-06-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  2. Myopia, spectacle wear, and risk of bicycle accidents among rural Chinese secondary school students: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study report no. 7.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Mingzhi; Congdon, Nathan; Li, Liping; Song, Yue; Choi, Kai; Wang, Yunfei; Zhou, Zhongxia; Liu, Xiaojian; Sharma, Abhishek; Chen, Weihong; Lam, Dennis S C

    2009-06-01

    To study the effect of myopia and spectacle wear on bicycle-related injuries in rural Chinese students. Myopia is common among Chinese students but few studies have examined its effect on daily activities. Data on visual acuity, refractive error, current spectacle wear, and history of bicycle use and accidents during the past 3 years were sought from 1891 students undergoing eye examinations in rural Guangdong province. Refractive and accident data were available for 1539 participants (81.3%), among whom the mean age was 14.6 years, 52.5% were girls, 26.8% wore glasses, and 12.9% had myopia of less than -4 diopters in both eyes. More than 90% relied on bicycles to get to school daily. A total of 2931 accidents were reported by 423 participants, with 68 requiring medical attention. Male sex (odds ratio, 1.55; P < .001) and spectacle wear (odds ratio, 1.38; P = .04) were associated with a higher risk of accident, but habitual visual acuity and myopia were unassociated with the crash risk, after adjusting for age, sex, time spent riding, and risky riding behaviors. These results may be consistent with data on motor vehicle accidents implicating peripheral vision (potentially compromised by spectacle wear) more strongly than central visual acuity in mediating crash risk.

  3. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review

    PubMed Central

    Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables. PMID:29077045

  4. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review.

    PubMed

    Takebayashi, Yoshitake; Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-10-27

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables.

  5. Forecasting risk along a river basin using a probabilistic and deterministic model for environmental risk assessment of effluents through ecotoxicological evaluation and GIS.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente

    2009-12-20

    This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.

  6. Risk of Occupational Accidents in Workers with Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Garbarino, Sergio; Guglielmi, Ottavia; Sanna, Antonio; Mancardi, Gian Luigi; Magnavita, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is the single most important preventable medical cause of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and driving accidents. OSA may also adversely affect work performance through a decrease in productivity, and an increase in the injury rate. Nevertheless, no systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between OSA and work accidents has been performed thus far. Methods: PubMed, PsycInfo, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched. Out of an initial list of 1,099 papers, 10 studies (12,553 participants) were eligible for our review, and 7 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The overall effects were measured by odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). An assessment was made of the methodological quality of the studies. Moderator analysis and funnel plot analysis were used to explore the sources of between-study heterogeneity. Results: Compared to controls, the odds of work accident was found to be nearly double in workers with OSA (OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.53–3.10). Occupational driving was associated with a higher effect size. Conclusions: OSA is an underdiagnosed nonoccupational disease that has a strong adverse effect on work accidents. The nearly twofold increased odds of work accidents in subjects with OSA calls for workplace screening in selected safety-sensitive occupations. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1171. Citation: Garbarino S, Guglielmi O, Sanna A, Mancardi GL, Magnavita N. Risk of occupational accidents in workers with obstructive sleep apnea: systematic review and meta-analysis. SLEEP 2016;39(6):1211–1218. PMID:26951401

  7. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging

  8. Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2009-04-01

    Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.

  9. In-hospital paediatric accidents: an integrative review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Da Rin Della Mora, R; Bagnasco, A; Sasso, L

    2012-12-01

    Paediatric hospitals can be perceived by children, parents, health professionals as 'safe' places, but accidents do occur. To review publications relating to in-hospital paediatric accidents and highlight the state-of-the-science concerning this issue especially in relation to falls, and the evolution of research addressing this issue. Integrative review of papers published before March 2011 on accidents and falls occurred in hospitalized children. Electronic databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Cochrane Library databases) and further hand searching through references were searched. The inclusion criteria were articles involving observational, quasi-experimental or experimental studies in English or Italian. Exclusion criteria were articles addressing the outcomes of falls caused by suspect violence on children. Thirteen studies in English were included. Of the 13 studies conducted between 1963 and 2010, 10 had been conducted in the last 5 years; 10 in the USA. The studies were divided into two categories: contextualization and prevention of the 'accident' or 'fall' phenomenon (10 studies), and fall risk assessment (three studies). The most frequent type of design was observational explorative/descriptive. Several areas of investigation were explored (hazardous environment, children's characteristics correlated to accidents/falls, characteristics of the accidents/falls and their outcomes, paediatric fall risk factors and risk assessment tools, fall risk prevention programmes, parents' perceptions of accident/fall risks, etc.). No comparable methods were used to investigate the contextualization and prevention of the 'accident' and 'fall' phenomena; proposed fall risk assessment tools were not evaluated for their reliability and validity. Consensus would be needed around the approach to accidents in terms of: the definition of 'accident' and 'fall'; 'fall-related injury' and respective classifications; the frequency and

  10. Medium Range Flood Forecasting for Agriculture Damage Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, major advancements have been made in medium range and seasonal flood forecasting. This progress provides a great opportunity to reduce agriculture damage and improve advisories for early action and planning for flood hazards. This approach can facilitate proactive rather than reactive management of the adverse consequences of floods. In the agricultural sector, for instance, farmers can take a diversity of options such as changing cropping patterns, applying fertilizer, irrigating and changing planting timing. An experimental medium range (1-10 day) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh and Thailand. It provides 51 sets of discharge ensemble forecasts of 1-10 days with significant persistence and high certainty. This type of forecast could assist farmers and other stakeholders for differential preparedness activities. These ensembles probabilistic flood forecasts have been customized based on user-needs for community-level application focused on agriculture system. The vulnerabilities of agriculture system were calculated based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators for risk and vulnerability assessment were conducted through community consultations. The forecast lead time requirement, user-needs, impacts and management options for crops were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and community surveys. This paper illustrates potential applications of such ensembles for probabilistic medium range flood forecasts in a way that is not commonly practiced globally today.

  11. On forecasting mortality.

    PubMed

    Olshansky, S J

    1988-01-01

    Official forecasts of mortality made by the U.S. Office of the Actuary throughout this century have consistently underestimated observed mortality declines. This is due, in part, to their reliance on the static extrapolation of past trends, an atheoretical statistical method that pays scant attention to the behavioral, medical, and social factors contributing to mortality change. A "multiple cause-delay model" more realistically portrays the effects on mortality of the presence of more favorable risk factors at the population level. Such revised assumptions produce large increases in forecasts of the size of the elderly population, and have a dramatic impact on related estimates of population morbidity, disability, and health care costs.

  12. Forecast for nuclear energy: Clear skies or stormy weather?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferguson, Charles D.

    2018-01-01

    During the last decade many people in the nuclear industry were forecasting a renaissance in construction of nuclear power plants, especially in light of the near-zero greenhouse gas emissions of nuclear power and the global need for such cleaner electricity sources. While the accident in March 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan resulted in dozens of reactor shutdowns in Japan and reconsideration of new nuclear power plants in several countries, other countries are continuing to build new plants but not at a fast enough rate yet to make a significant further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Even before this accident, the prospects for major growth in nuclear power were dim. To explicate the present situation and potential future scenarios for nuclear power, this paper examines the issue of who bears the financial risk especially during the construction phase, the roles of governments in financial interventions such as loan guarantees, tax credits, and prices on greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of regulated versus market-based utility systems, the competition with relatively cheap natural gas, the roles of various governments around the world in determining the use of nuclear power, the interdependent nature of the nuclear industry with companies both competing and cooperating with each other, and the issue of whether small modular reactors or advanced nuclear reactors could result in many more plants being constructed in the United States and worldwide.

  13. Seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission, Florida.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Day, Jonathan F; Stieglitz, Marc; Zebiak, Stephen; Cane, Mark

    2004-05-01

    Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.

  14. Seasonal Forecast of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission, Florida

    PubMed Central

    Day, Jonathan F.; Stieglitz, Marc; Zebiak, Stephen; Cane, Mark

    2004-01-01

    Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empirical relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empirical disease forecast model. PMID:15200812

  15. Flash flood forecasting using simplified hydrological models, radar rainfall forecasts and data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.; Panziera, L.

    2012-04-01

    The issuing of timely flood alerts may be dependant upon the ability to predict future values of water level or discharge at locations where observations are available. Catchments at risk of flash flooding often have a rapid natural response time, typically less then the forecast lead time desired for issuing alerts. This work focuses on the provision of short-range (up to 6 hours lead time) predictions of discharge in small catchments based on utilising radar forecasts to drive a hydrological model. An example analysis based upon the Verzasca catchment (Ticino, Switzerland) is presented. Parsimonious time series models with a mechanistic interpretation (so called Data-Based Mechanistic model) have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this study such a model is developed to predict the discharge at an observed location from observed precipitation data. The model is shown to capture the snow melt response at this site. Observed discharge data is assimilated to improve the forecasts, of up to two hours lead time, that can be generated from observed precipitation. To generate forecasts with greater lead time ensemble precipitation forecasts are utilised. In this study the Nowcasting ORographic precipitation in the Alps (NORA) product outlined in more detail elsewhere (Panziera et al. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2011; DOI:10.1002/qj.878) is utilised. NORA precipitation forecasts are derived from historical analogues based on the radar field and upper atmospheric conditions. As such, they avoid the need to explicitly model the evolution of the rainfall field through for example Lagrangian diffusion. The uncertainty in the forecasts is represented by characterisation of the joint distribution of the observed discharge, the discharge forecast using the (in operational conditions unknown) future observed precipitation and that forecast utilising the NORA ensembles. Constructing the joint distribution in this way allows the full

  16. Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management.

    PubMed

    Easton, Zachary M; Kleinman, Peter J A; Buda, Anthony R; Goering, Dustin; Emberston, Nichole; Reed, Seann; Drohan, Patrick J; Walter, M Todd; Guinan, Pat; Lory, John A; Sommerlot, Andrew R; Sharpley, Andrew

    2017-11-01

    The advent of real-time, short-term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high-performance computing and hydrologic or climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real-time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short-term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the United States: (i) Wisconsin's Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System, (ii) New York's Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool, (iii) Virginia's Saturated Area Forecast Model, (iv) Pennsylvania's Fertilizer Forecaster, (v) Washington's Application Risk Management (ARM) System, and (vi) Missouri's Design Storm Notification System. Although these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied, and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (range 24-120 h) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast models. Although this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, access to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs. field level), data requirements, and outreach communication structure. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Fatal connections--socioeconomic determinants of road accident risk and drunk driving in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Krüger, Niclas A

    2013-09-01

    In recent years a considerable number of papers have examined socioeconomic factors influencing the number and the outcome of traffic accidents. There is however more research needed to confirm the previous results in order to generalize them and a need to examine additional factors that might have an impact. This paper uses both regional panel data and national time series data combined with filtering techniques to determine what factors influence the number of accidents, the accident outcome and detected drunk driving. Using time series data, it is found that the number of traffic fatalities increases for both per capita and per person kilometer travelled during economic booms. This indicates that the death risk rises not only because of increased mileage or motorization during booms. Using panel data, it is found that traffic fatalities decrease with unemployment, whereas personal injuries increase on a per capita basis with youth and the number of cars. In contrast to property crimes and other types of crime, drunk driving in Sweden decreases during economic contractions. The main policy conclusion from our results is that resources for safety measures should not be spend uniformly across time and space. Instead, safety measures should be concentrated to areas with a high share of young people and to periods with low unemployment. The results of the time series analysis suggest that factors other than increased mileage during booms contribute to the higher rate of fatalities during good times. Increased risk taking, such as drunk driving, might be an explanatory factor. The results might be interesting for safety-oriented car and truck producers as well for developers of traffic safety products, since the results indicate in what regional markets and under what market conditions their products are most needed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  19. Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

  20. Data on the determinants of the risk of fatalities, serious injuries and light injuries in traffic accidents on interurban roads in Spain.

    PubMed

    González, María Pilar Sánchez; Sotos, Francisco Escribano; Ponce, Ángel Tejada

    2018-06-01

    This article describes the data collection used to analyse the risk of fatalities and injuries resulting from traffic accidents on interurban roads in the provinces of Spain from 1999 to 2015. The database includes data on different factors related to accidents rates for each Spanish province. These data were used in the article entitled "Impact of provincial characteristics on the number of traffic accident victims on interurban roads in Spain" (Sánchez et al., 2018) [1].

  1. Pedestrian injury risk functions based on contour lines of equal injury severity using real world pedestrian/passenger-car accident data

    PubMed Central

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

    2013-01-01

    Injury risk assessment plays a pivotal role in the assessment of the effectiveness of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as they specify the injury reduction potential of the system. The usual way to describe injury risks is by use of injury risk functions, i.e. specifying the probability of an injury of a given severity occurring at a specific technical accident severity (collision speed). A method for the generation of a family of risk functions for different levels of injury severity is developed. The injury severity levels are determined by use of a rescaled version of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) namely the ISSx. The injury risk curves for each collision speed is then obtained by fixing the boundary conditions and use of a case-by-case validated GIDAS subset of pedestrian-car accidents (N=852). The resultant functions are of exponential form as opposed to the frequently used logistic regression form. The exponential approach in combination with the critical speed value creates a new injury risk pattern better fitting for high speed/high energy crashes. Presented is a family of pedestrian injury risk functions for an arbitrary injury severity. Thus, the effectiveness of an ADAS can be assessed for mitigation of different injury severities using the same injury risk function and relying on the internal soundness of the risk function with regard to different injury severity levels. For the assessment of emergency braking ADAS, a Zone of Effective Endangerment Increase (ZEEI), the speed interval in which a one percent speed increase results at least in a one percent of injury risk increase, is defined. The methodology presented is kept in such general terms that a direct adaption to other accident configurations is easily done. PMID:24406954

  2. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

    2013-08-01

    We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller

  3. The Eruption Forecasting Information System: Volcanic Eruption Forecasting Using Databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogburn, S. E.; Harpel, C. J.; Pesicek, J. D.; Wellik, J.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting eruptions, including the onset size, duration, location, and impacts, is vital for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) project is a new initiative of the US Geological Survey-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) and will advance VDAP's ability to forecast the outcome of volcanic unrest. The project supports probability estimation for eruption forecasting by creating databases useful for pattern recognition, identifying monitoring data thresholds beyond which eruptive probabilities increase, and for answering common forecasting questions. A major component of the project is a global relational database, which contains multiple modules designed to aid in the construction of probabilistic event trees and to answer common questions that arise during volcanic crises. The primary module contains chronologies of volcanic unrest. This module allows us to query eruption chronologies, monitoring data, descriptive information, operational data, and eruptive phases alongside other global databases, such as WOVOdat and the Global Volcanism Program. The EFIS database is in the early stages of development and population; thus, this contribution also is a request for feedback from the community. Preliminary data are already benefitting several research areas. For example, VDAP provided a forecast of the likely remaining eruption duration for Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, using global data taken from similar volcanoes in the DomeHaz database module, in combination with local monitoring time-series data. In addition, EFIS seismologists used a beta-statistic test and empirically-derived thresholds to identify distal volcano-tectonic earthquake anomalies preceding Alaska volcanic eruptions during 1990-2015 to retrospectively evaluate Alaska Volcano Observatory eruption precursors. This has identified important considerations for selecting analog volcanoes for global data analysis, such as differences between

  4. Cancer risk estimation in Belarussian children due to thyroid irradiation as a consequence of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.E.; Sergeeva, N.V.

    1996-07-01

    The thyroid doses received by the juvenile population of Belarus following the Chernobyl accident ranged up to about 10 Gy. The thyroid cancer risk estimate recommended in NCRP Report No. 80 was used to predict the number of thyroid cancer cases among children during 1990-1992 in selected Belarussian regions and cities. The results obtained using this risk estimate show an excess of thyroid cancer cases being registered vs. the predicted cases. Thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys under investigation is higher than among girls in the postaccident period. The excess of the observed over the expected incidence in the generalmore » juvenile population is caused by the high thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys. These results, which can be considered part of the first stage of a thorough thyroid cancer risk estimation after the Chernobyl accident, demonstrate the critical need to complete these studies in depth. 6 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

  5. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  6. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  7. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  8. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  9. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  10. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

    2017-04-01

    .e. convective precipitation ratio, speed of steering winds, CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy - and solar radiation), alongside the rainfall forecasts themselves, to define the "weather types" that in turn define the expected sub-grid variability. The calibration and computational strategy intrinsic to the system will be illustrated. The quality of the global point rainfall forecasts is also illustrated by analysing recent case studies in which extreme totals and a greatly elevated flash flood risk could be foreseen some days in advance but especially by a longer-term verification that arises out of retrospective global point rainfall forecasting for 2016. The second phase, currently in development, is focussing on the relationships with other relevant geographical aspects, for instance, orography and coastlines. Preliminary results will be presented. These are promising but need further study to fully understand their impact on the spatial distribution of point rainfall totals.

  11. Cerebrovascular accidents in patients with a ventricular assist device.

    PubMed

    Tsukui, Hiroyuki; Abla, Adib; Teuteberg, Jeffrey J; McNamara, Dennis M; Mathier, Michael A; Cadaret, Linda M; Kormos, Robert L

    2007-07-01

    A cerebrovascular accident is a devastating adverse event in a patient with a ventricular assist device. The goal was to clarify the risk factors for cerebrovascular accident. Prospectively collected data, including medical history, ventricular assist device type, white blood cell count, thrombelastogram, and infection, were reviewed retrospectively in 124 patients. Thirty-one patients (25%) had 48 cerebrovascular accidents. The mean ventricular assist device support period was 228 and 89 days in patients with and without cerebrovascular accidents, respectively (P < .0001). Sixty-six percent of cerebrovascular accidents occurred within 4 months after implantation. Actuarial freedom from cerebrovascular accident at 6 months was 75%, 64%, 63%, and 33% with the HeartMate device (Thoratec Corp, Pleasanton, Calif), Thoratec biventricular ventricular assist device (Thoratec Corp), Thoratec left ventricular assist device (Thoratec), and Novacor device (WorldHeart, Oakland, Calif), respectively. Twenty cerebrovascular accidents (42%) occurred in patients with infections. The mean white blood cell count at the cerebrovascular accident was greater than the normal range in patients with infection (12,900/mm3) and without infection (9500/mm3). The mean maximum amplitude of the thrombelastogram in the presence of infection (63.6 mm) was higher than that in the absence of infection (60.7 mm) (P = .0309). The risk of cerebrovascular accident increases with a longer ventricular assist device support period. Infection may activate platelet function and predispose the patient to a cerebrovascular accident. An elevation of the white blood cell count may also exacerbate the risk of cerebrovascular accident even in patients without infection. Selection of device type, prevention of infection, and meticulous control of anticoagulation are key to preventing cerebrovascular accident.

  12. Emotional stress and traffic accidents: the impact of separation and divorce.

    PubMed

    Lagarde, Emmanuel; Chastang, Jean-François; Gueguen, Alice; Coeuret-Pellicer, Mireille; Chiron, Mireille; Lafont, Sylviane

    2004-11-01

    Personal responses to stressful life events are suspected of increasing the risk of serious traffic accidents. We analyzed data from a French cohort study (the GAZEL cohort), including a retrospective driving behavior questionnaire, from 13,915 participants (10,542 men age 52-62 years and 3373 women age 47-62 years in 2001). Follow-up data covered 1993-2000. Hazard ratios for serious accidents (n = 713) were computed by Cox's proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates. Separate analyses were also performed to consider only at-fault accidents. Marital separation or divorce was associated with an increased risk of a serious accident (all serious accidents: hazard ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval = 1.7-5.0; at-fault accidents: 4.4, 2.3-8.3). The impact of separation and divorce did not differ according to alcohol consumption levels. Other life events associated with increased risk of serious accident were a child leaving home (all accidents: 1.2, 0.97-1.6; at-fault accidents: 1.5, 1.1-2.1), an important purchase (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-1.7; at-fault accidents: 1.6, 1.2-2.1), and hospitalization of the partner (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-2.0). This study suggests that recent separation and divorce are associated with an increase in serious traffic accidents.

  13. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

  14. Aspects Concerning The Rules And The Investigation Of Traffic Accidents As Work Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarnu, Lucian Ioan

    2015-07-01

    When Romania joined the European Union, it was imposed that the Romanian legislation in the field of the security and health at work be in line with the European one. The concept of health as it is defined by the International Body of Health, refers to a good physical, mental and social condition. The improvement of the activity of preventing the traffic accidents as work accidents must have as basis the correct and accurate evaluation of risks of getting injured. The goal of the activity of prevention and protection is to ensure the best working conditions, the prevention of accidents and occupational diseases and the adjustment to the scientific and technological progress. In the road transport sector, as in any other sector, it is very important to pay attention to working conditions to ensure a workforce motivated and well qualified. Some features make it a more difficult sector risk management than other sectors. However, if one takes into account how it works in practice this sector and the characteristics of drivers and how they work routinely, risks, dangers and threats can be managed efficiently and with great success.

  15. Validation of the CME Geomagnetic forecast alerts under COMESEP alert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumbovic, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Khodia, Yamini; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

    2017-04-01

    An automated space weather alert system has been developed under the EU FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: http://comesep.aeronomy.be) to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. COMESEP alert system uses automated detection tool CACTus to detect potentially threatening CMEs, drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival and CME geo-effectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. Geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geo-effectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with COMESEP alert system based on a study of geo-effective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is done by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of DBM and CGFT (self standing tools available at Hvar Observatory website: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results implicate that the success rate of the forecast is higher with human intervention and using more advanced tools. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252). We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability".

  16. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    PubMed

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  17. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    PubMed Central

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  18. Driving behaviors and on-duty road accidents: a French case-control study.

    PubMed

    Fort, Emmanuel; Chiron, Mireille; Davezies, Philippe; Bergeret, Alain; Charbotel, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    A case-control study was carried out to identify driving behaviors associated with the risk of on-duty road accident and to compare driving behaviors according to the type of journey (on duty, commuting, and private) for on-duty road accident victims. Cases were recruited from the Rhône Road Trauma Registry between January 2004 and October 2005 and were on duty at the time of the accident. Control subjects were recruited from the electoral rolls of the case subjects' constituencies of residence. Cases' and controls' driving behavior data were collected by self-administered questionnaire. A logistic regression was performed to identify behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents, taking into account age, sex, place of residence, road accident risk exposure, socio-occupational category, and type of road user. A second analysis focused specifically on the case subjects, comparing their self-assessed usual behaviors according to the type of journey. Significant factors for multivariate analysis of on-duty road accidents were female gender, history of on-duty road accidents during the previous 10 years, severe time pressure at work, and driving a vehicle not belonging to the driver. On-duty road accident victims reported behavioral risk factors more frequently in relation to driving for work than driving for private reasons or commuting: nonsystematic seat belt use, cell phone use at least once daily while driving, and history of accidents with injury during the previous 10 years. This study provides knowledge on behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents and differences in behavior according to the type of journey for subjects who have been on-duty road accident victims. These results will be useful for the design of on-duty road risk prevention.

  19. Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Li, X.; Turner, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations The need for highly improved space weather modeling and monitoring is quickly becoming imperative as our society depends ever more on the sensitive technology that builds and connects our world. Instead of relying primarily on tried and true concepts, academic institutions and funding agencies alike should be focusing on truly new and innovative ways to solve this pressing problem. In this exciting time, where student-led groups can launch CubeSats for under a million dollars and companies like SpaceX are actively reducing the cost-cap of access to space, the space physics community should be pushing the boundaries of what is possible to enhance our understanding of the space environment. Taking great risks in instrumentation, mission concepts, operational development, collaborations, and scientific research is the best way to move our field forward to where it needs to be for the betterment of science and society.

  20. Risk Assessment for Emergency Planning Related to Nuclear Weapons Accidents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-09-25

    accidents is higher than many of the other accidents, several reviewers thought it appropriate to evaluate these accidents in more detail. In particular, it...consequences is presented in Table 2-5. The plutonium releases in the 1F-3F gram range are due to plutonium burning in Type A weapons, while the higher ...explosion given a tanker casualty varies from 0.05 (in harbor) to 0.16 (at pier) to 0.19 (at sea). Although these numbers are somewhat higher than the

  1. WIPCast: Probabilistic Forecasting for Aviation Decision Aid Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    traders, or families planning an outing – manage weather-related risk. By quantifying risk , probabilistic forecasting enables optimization of actions via...confidence interval to the user’s risk tolerance helps drive highly effective and innovative decision support mechanisms for visually quantifying risk for

  2. Occupational accidents in the Finnish local government sector: utilisation of national statistics.

    PubMed

    Nenonen, Noora

    2011-12-01

    Occupational accidents in the Finnish local government sector in 2004 are analysed by gender, age and occupation class in order to identify particular risk groups. The accident data are compared with data concerning the number of employees, using frequency distributions and accident incidence rates. The possibilities of providing occupation class-specific accident incidence rates are also discussed. According to the results, commuting accidents are more common and severe in the local government sector than in general in Finland. In the local public sector occupational accidents more often involved women than men. Compared to other age groups and occupational classes, occupational accidents are more common in the age band of 45-54 and in the occupational class of medical and nursing work. However, compared to the employees' data, men and younger employees had an increased workplace accident risk, while women and older employees had an increased risk of commuting accidents. The highest accident incidence rate was in farming and animal husbandry work. Currently, the calculation of occupation class-specific accident incidence rates is difficult. Improving the consistency of the occupation classifications used in the various data sources would facilitate more reliable calculation of rates.

  3. [Accidents on Iceland's most dangerous roads].

    PubMed

    Bjarnason, Thóroddur; Arnarsson, Sveinn

    2012-02-01

    The objective of this paper was to identify the most dangerous segments of the Icelandic road system in terms of the number of accidents pr km and the rate of accidents pr million km travelled. First to identify the segments where the number of accidents is highest and where the risk of the individual traveller is the greatest. Second to evaluate if the association between the number and the rate of accidents is positive or negative. Third to identify the road segments that are the most dangerous in the sense of many accidents and great risk to individual travellers. Main roads outside urban centers were divided into 45 segments that were on average 78 km in length. Infrequently travelled roads and roads within urban centers were omitted. Information on the length of roads, traffic density and number of accidents was used to calculate the number of accidents per km and the rate of accidents per million km travelled. The correlation between the number and rate of accidents was calculated and the most dangerous road segments were identified by the average rank order on both dimensions. Most accidents pr km occurred on the main roads to and from the capital region, but also east towards Hvolsvöllur, north towards Akureyri and in the Mideast region of the country. The rate of accidents pr million km travelled was highest in the northeast region, in northern Snæfellsnes and in the Westfjords. The most dangerous roads on both dimensions were in Mideast, northern Westfjords, in the north between Blönduós and Akureyri and in northern Snæfellsnes. Most accidents pr km occurred on roads with a low accident rate pr million km travelled. It is therefore possible to reduce accidents the most by increasing road safety where it is already the greatest but that would however increase inequalities in road safety. Policy development in transportation is therefore in part a question of priorities in healthcare. Individual equality in safety and health are not always fully

  4. Resolution of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Application in Disease Management.

    PubMed

    Hughes, G; McRoberts, N; Burnett, F J

    2017-02-01

    Predictive systems in disease management often incorporate weather data among the disease risk factors, and sometimes this comes in the form of forecast weather data rather than observed weather data. In such cases, it is useful to have an evaluation of the operational weather forecast, in addition to the evaluation of the disease forecasts provided by the predictive system. Typically, weather forecasts and disease forecasts are evaluated using different methodologies. However, the information theoretic quantity expected mutual information provides a basis for evaluating both kinds of forecast. Expected mutual information is an appropriate metric for the average performance of a predictive system over a set of forecasts. Both relative entropy (a divergence, measuring information gain) and specific information (an entropy difference, measuring change in uncertainty) provide a basis for the assessment of individual forecasts.

  5. Prevention of bicycle accidents.

    PubMed

    Simpson, A H; Mineiro, J

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate the way of reducing the number of bicycle accidents. A prospective study of all casualties from bicycle accidents attending an accident unit for a 29-month period was performed (1831 patients). A more detailed questionnaire on the causes of accidents was used for the last 12 months of the study (818 patients). In the 0-7 and 8-12 years age groups, 87.5 per cent and 66.2 per cent, respectively, were due to cyclist error. The 8-12-year-old cyclists were twice as likely to have caused the accident if they had not had formal training (risk ratio = 2.0). Over the age of 18 years, 41.4 per cent were due to another road user. A motor vehicle was involved in 633 of the 1831 accidents. Children under the age of 8 years should not be allowed on public roads. Older children should only be allowed on the roads after formal training. This should become part of the school curriculum. A campaign to increase the awareness of motorists would be expected to reduce the number of cycle accidents. It would be beneficial to dedicate more roads and tracks to cycle use. Cyclists should be encouraged to wear more protective gear.

  6. Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

  7. [Traffic accidents from the motorcycle couriers' perspective: feedback for health promotion].

    PubMed

    Veronese, Andréa Márian; de Oliveira, Dora Lúcia Leidens Corrêa

    2006-12-01

    This research note is the result of a qualitative study in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, aimed at exploring traffic accident risk from the motorcycle couriers' point of view. The research results highlight the importance of accident prevention and health promotion for these workers. The study was based on sociological theories of risk, especially those emphasizing the social and cultural nature of its meanings. Information was gathered through focus groups and analyzed according to the Data-Based Theory. According to the research subjects, all motorcycle couriers, the traffic accident risk is inherent to their daily work duties and is produced by personal and social interests like money, speed, and urgency. Motorcycle couriers attempt to control such risks by using self-defense strategies. Considering the high incidence of traffic accidents with motorcycle couriers in Porto Alegre, these strategies have apparently not been effective. This note emphasizes that traffic accidents involving motorcycle couriers are work-related accidents, and that health promotion measures to prevent them should target not only the couriers themselves but also their employers and customers.

  8. Validation of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Alerts Under the COMESEP Alert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumbović, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Rao, Yamini K.; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

    2017-08-01

    Under the European Union 7th Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP, http://comesep.aeronomy.be), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. The COMESEP alert system uses the automated detection tool called Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) to detect potentially threatening CMEs, a drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival, and a CME geoeffectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, the DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and the CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. The geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with the COMESEP alert system based on a study of geoeffective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is made by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of the DBM and CGFT (independent tools available at the Hvar Observatory website, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results indicate that the success rate of the forecast in its current form is unacceptably low for a realistic operation system. Human intervention improves the forecast, but the false-alarm rate remains unacceptably high. We discuss these results and their implications for possible improvement of the COMESEP alert system.

  9. Major differences in rates of occupational accidents between different nationalities of seafarers.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Henrik L; Laursen, Lise Hedgaard; Frydberg, Morten; Kristensen, Soeren

    2008-01-01

    Earlier studies and statistics have shown that merchant seafarers from the South East Asia had considerable lower accident rates when compared with seafarers from Western Europe. The purposes of the study were to investigate whether the earlier observations were sustained if further sources on occurrence of accidents were used and to identify specific causes of excess accident rates among certain nationalities. Occupational accidents aboard Danish merchant ships during one year were identified from four different sources. These included accidents reported to the maritime authorities, accidents reported to a mutual insurance company, files on medical costs reimbursed by the government and finally, accidents in which there has been contact to the radio medical service. Time at risk aboard was obtained from a register on all employment periods aboard merchant ships. A total of 943 accidents causing personal injury to a seafarer directly caused by work aboard were identified. Among these accidents, 499 had taken place aboard cargo ships in international trade. Only these were used in the detailed analysis. The accident rate for all identified accidents aboard cargo ships were 84 accidents per 1,000 years aboard. The crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) for East European seafarers was 0.88 and for South East Asians 0.38 using West European seafarers as reference. In a Poisson regression analysis, the IRR for South East Asians was 0.29 (0.22-0.38). In an analysis including only more serious accidents, IRR for South East Asians rose to 0.36 (0.26-0.48). This study indicates that seafarers from South East Asia, mainly the Philippines, may have a genuine lower risk of occupational accidents in comparison with seafarers from Western and Eastern Europe. Differences in approach to safety and risk taking between South East Asian and European seafarers should be identified and positives attitudes included in accident preventing programmes. Main messages Seafarers from South East

  10. Affective Forecasting and Medication Decision Making in Breast Cancer Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael; Scherer, Laura D.; Fagerlin, Angela

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Over two million American women at elevated risk of breast cancer are eligible to take chemoprevention medications such as Tamoxifen and Raloxifene, which can cut in half the risk of developing breast cancer but also have a number of side effects. Historically, very few at-risk women have opted to use chemoprevention medications. Affective forecasting theory suggests that people may avoid these medications if they expect taking them to increase their health-related stress. Methods After receiving an individually tailored decision aid that provided personalized information about the risks and benefits of these medications, 661 women at elevated risk of breast cancer were asked to make three affective forecasts, predicting what their level of health-related stress would be if taking Tamoxifen, Raloxifene, or neither medication. They also completed measures of decisional preferences and intentions, and at a three-month follow-up reported on whether or not they had decided to use either medication. Results On the affective forecasting items, very few women (< 10%) expected the medications to reduce their health-related stress, relative to no medication at all. Participants with more negative affective forecasts about taking a chemoprevention medication expressed lower preferences and intentions for using the medications (Cohen’s ds from 0.74 to 0.79) and were more likely to have opted against using medication at follow-up (odds ratios from 1.34 to 2.66). Conclusions These findings suggest that affective forecasting may explain avoidance of breast cancer chemoprevention medications. They also highlight the need for more research aimed at integrating emotional content into decision aids. PMID:26867042

  11. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-12-01

    The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  12. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-06-01

    The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  13. COSMO-PAFOG: Three-dimensional fog forecasting with the high-resolution COSMO-model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hacker, Maike; Bott, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The presence of fog can have critical impact on shipping, aviation and road traffic increasing the risk of serious accidents. Besides these negative impacts of fog, in arid regions fog is explored as a supplementary source of water for human settlements. Thus the improvement of fog forecasts holds immense operational value. The aim of this study is the development of an efficient three-dimensional numerical fog forecast model based on a mesoscale weather prediction model for the application in the Namib region. The microphysical parametrization of the one-dimensional fog forecast model PAFOG (PArameterized FOG) is implemented in the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic mesoscale weather prediction model COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling) developed and maintained by the German Meteorological Service. Cloud water droplets are introduced in COSMO as prognostic variables, thus allowing a detailed description of droplet sedimentation. Furthermore, a visibility parametrization depending on the liquid water content and the droplet number concentration is implemented. The resulting fog forecast model COSMO-PAFOG is run with kilometer-scale horizontal resolution. In vertical direction, we use logarithmically equidistant layers with 45 of 80 layers in total located below 2000 m. Model results are compared to satellite observations and synoptic observations of the German Meteorological Service for a domain in the west of Germany, before the model is adapted to the geographical and climatological conditions in the Namib desert. COSMO-PAFOG is able to represent the horizontal structure of fog patches reasonably well. Especially small fog patches typical of radiation fog can be simulated in agreement with observations. Ground observations of temperature are also reproduced. Simulations without the PAFOG microphysics yield unrealistically high liquid water contents. This in turn reduces the radiative cooling of the ground, thus inhibiting nocturnal temperature decrease. The

  14. Agricultural drought risk monitoring and yield loss forecast with remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, Attila; Tamás, János; Fehér, János

    2015-04-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP) have launched a joint Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) to improve monitoring and prevention of droughts. In the frame of this project this study focuses on identification of agricultural drought characteristics and elaborates a monitoring method (with application of remote sensing data), which could result in appropriate early warning of droughts before irreversible yield loss and/or quality degradation occur. The spatial decision supporting system to be developed will help the farmers in reducing drought risk of the different regions by plant specific calibrated drought indexes. The study area was the Tisza River Basin, which is located in Central Europe within the Carpathian Basin. For the investigations normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used calculated from 16 day moving average chlorophyll intensity and biomass quantity data. The results offer concrete identification of remote sensing and GIS data tools for agricultural drought monitoring and forecast, which eventually provides information on physical implementation of drought risk levels. In the first step, we statistically normalized the crop yield maps and the MODIS satellite data. Then the drought-induced crop yield loss values were classified. The crop yield loss data were validated against the regional meteorological drought index values (SPI), the water management and soil physical data. The objective of this method was to determine the congruency of data derived from spectral data and from field measurements. As a result, five drought risk levels were developed to identify the effect of drought on yields: Watch, Early Warning, Warning, Alert and Catastrophe. In the frame of this innovation such a data link and integration, missing from decision process of IDMP, are established, which can facilitate the rapid spatial and temporal monitoring of meteorological, agricultural drought phenomena and its

  15. Time-varying loss forecast for an earthquake scenario in Basel, Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrmann, Marcus; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Wiemer, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    When an unexpected earthquake occurs, people suddenly want advice on how to cope with the situation. The 2009 L'Aquila quake highlighted the significance of public communication and pushed the usage of scientific methods to drive alternative risk mitigation strategies. For instance, van Stiphout et al. (2010) suggested a new approach for objective evacuation decisions on short-term: probabilistic risk forecasting combined with cost-benefit analysis. In the present work, we apply this approach to an earthquake sequence that simulated a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, one of the most damaging events in Central Europe. A recent development to benefit society in case of an earthquake are probabilistic forecasts of the aftershock occurrence. But seismic risk delivers a more direct expression of the socio-economic impact. To forecast the seismic risk on short-term, we translate aftershock probabilities to time-varying seismic hazard and combine this with time-invariant loss estimation. Compared with van Stiphout et al. (2010), we use an advanced aftershock forecasting model and detailed settlement data to allow us spatial forecasts and settlement-specific decision-making. We quantify the risk forecast probabilistically in terms of human loss. For instance one minute after the M6.6 mainshock, the probability for an individual to die within the next 24 hours is 41 000 times higher than the long-term average; but the absolute value remains at minor 0.04 %. The final cost-benefit analysis adds value beyond a pure statistical approach: it provides objective statements that may justify evacuations. To deliver supportive information in a simple form, we propose a warning approach in terms of alarm levels. Our results do not justify evacuations prior to the M6.6 mainshock, but in certain districts afterwards. The ability to forecast the short-term seismic risk at any time-and with sufficient data anywhere-is the first step of personal decision-making and raising risk

  16. Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Sean W. D.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Galelli, Stefano

    2017-09-01

    Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made - namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.

  17. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  18. Societal and ethical aspects of the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Oughton, Deborah

    2016-10-01

    The Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan in 2011 was a poignant reminder that radioactive contamination of the environment has consequences that encompass far more than health risks from exposure to radiation. Both the accident and remediation measures have resulted in serious societal impacts and raise questions about the ethical aspects of risk management. This article presents a brief review of some of these issues and compares similarities and differences with the lessons learned from the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in Ukraine. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:651-653. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  19. Time-specific ecologic niche models forecast the risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Dongting Lake district, China, 2005-2010.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hai-Ning; Gao, Li-Dong; Chowell, Gerardo; Hu, Shi-Xiong; Lin, Xiao-Ling; Li, Xiu-Jun; Ma, Gui-Hua; Huang, Ru; Yang, Hui-Suo; Tian, Huaiyu; Xiao, Hong

    2014-01-01

    Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies. We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005-2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors. Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS.

  20. [The role of "competent physician" for prevention of accidents at work].

    PubMed

    Ramistella, E; Bergamaschi, A; Mosconi, G; Rossi, O; Sallese, D

    2008-01-01

    Using at best the professional and legal tools at his/her disposal, the "competent physician" can have a relevant role in reducing accidents in the workplace. In assessing the worker's suitability to specific tasks, the competent physician checks the presence of pathologies or functional impairments of organs or apparatuses that can be an additional risk for the occurrence of accidents at work. The activity aimed to preventing accidents at work translates also in taking part in the planning and implementation of information activities and workers' training within the company. The various risk factors inherent in the workplace and so-called "human factors" can interact in a negative way to the point of becoming a cause of accidents. The human variables of accident risk at the industrial, occupational and even individual level, may be numerous. In this paper we shall review these important aspects and attempt to clarify the role that can be played by the competent physician in the prevention of accidents at work.

  1. Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop models in Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capa, Mirian; Ines, Amor; Baethgen, Walter; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Han, Eunjin; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2015-04-01

    Translating seasonal climate forecasts into agricultural production forecasts could help to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. In this study, we use seasonal rainfall forecasts and crop models to improve predictability of wheat yield in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Additionally, we estimate economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecast. This study evaluates two methods for disaggregating seasonal climate forecasts into daily weather data: 1) a stochastic weather generator (CondWG), and 2) a forecast tercile resampler (FResampler). Both methods were used to generate 100 (with FResampler) and 110 (with CondWG) weather series/sequences for three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts. Simulated wheat yield is computed with the crop model CERES-wheat (Ritchie and Otter, 1985), which is included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at two locations in northeastern Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. Once simulated yields were obtained, an assessment of farmer's gross margin for different seasonal climate forecasts was accomplished to estimate production risks under different climate scenarios. This methodology allows farmers to assess the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast in IP prior to the crop growing season. The results of this study may have important implications on both, public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Hoogenboom, G. et al., 2010. The Decision

  2. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold

  3. Occupational accidents among mototaxi drivers.

    PubMed

    Amorim, Camila Rego; de Araújo, Edna Maria; de Araújo, Tânia Maria; de Oliveira, Nelson Fernandes

    2012-03-01

    The use of motorcycles as a means of work has contributed to the increase in traffic accidents, in particular, mototaxi accidents. The aim of this study was to estimate and characterize the incidence of occupational accidents among the mototaxis registered in Feira de Santana, BA. This is a cross-sectional study with descriptive and census data. Of the 300 professionals registered at the Municipal Transportation Service, 267 professionals were interviewed through a structured questionnaire. Then, a descriptive analysis was conducted and the incidence of accidents was estimated based on the variables studied. Relative risks were calculated and statistical significance was determined using the chi-square test and Fisher's exact test, considering p < 0.05. Logistic regression was used in order to perform simultaneous adjustment of variables. Occupational accidents were observed in 10.5% of mototaxis. There were mainly minor injuries (48.7%), 27% of them requiring leaves of absence from work. There was an association between the days of work per week, fatigue in lower limbs and musculoskeletal complaints, and accidents. Knowledge of the working conditions and accidents involved in this activity can be of great importance for the adoption of traffic education policies, and to help prevent accidents by improving the working conditions and lives of these professionals.

  4. Contributing factors in construction accidents.

    PubMed

    Haslam, R A; Hide, S A; Gibb, A G F; Gyi, D E; Pavitt, T; Atkinson, S; Duff, A R

    2005-07-01

    This overview paper draws together findings from previous focus group research and studies of 100 individual construction accidents. Pursuing issues raised by the focus groups, the accident studies collected qualitative information on the circumstances of each incident and the causal influences involved. Site based data collection entailed interviews with accident-involved personnel and their supervisor or manager, inspection of the accident location, and review of appropriate documentation. Relevant issues from the site investigations were then followed up with off-site stakeholders, including designers, manufacturers and suppliers. Levels of involvement of key factors in the accidents were: problems arising from workers or the work team (70% of accidents), workplace issues (49%), shortcomings with equipment (including PPE) (56%), problems with suitability and condition of materials (27%), and deficiencies with risk management (84%). Employing an ergonomics systems approach, a model is proposed, indicating the manner in which originating managerial, design and cultural factors shape the circumstances found in the work place, giving rise to the acts and conditions which, in turn, lead to accidents. It is argued that attention to the originating influences will be necessary for sustained improvement in construction safety to be achieved.

  5. An Operational System for Surveillance and Ecological Forecasting of West Nile Virus Outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Davis, J. K.; Vincent, G.; Hess, A.; Hildreth, M. B.

    2017-12-01

    Mosquito-borne disease surveillance has traditionally focused on tracking human cases along with the abundance and infection status of mosquito vectors. For many of these diseases, vector and host population dynamics are also sensitive to climatic factors, including temperature fluctuations and the availability of surface water for mosquito breeding. Thus, there is a potential to strengthen surveillance and predict future outbreaks by monitoring environmental risk factors using broad-scale sensor networks that include earth-observing satellites. The South Dakota Mosquito Information System (SDMIS) project combines entomological surveillance with gridded meteorological data from NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) to generate weekly risk maps for West Nile virus (WNV) in the north-central United States. Critical components include a mosquito infection model that smooths the noisy infection rate and compensates for unbalanced sampling, and a human infection model that combines the entomological risk estimates with lagged effects of meteorological variables from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Two types of forecasts are generated: long-term forecasts of statewide risk extending through the entire WNV season, and short-term forecasts of the geographic pattern of WNV risk in the upcoming week. Model forecasts are connected to public health actions through decision support matrices that link predicted risk levels to a set of phased responses. In 2016, the SDMIS successfully forecast an early start to the WNV season and a large outbreak of WNV cases following several years of low transmission. An evaluation of the 2017 forecasts will also be presented. Our experiences with the SDMIS highlight several important lessons that can inform future efforts at disease early warning. These include the value of integrating climatic models with recent observations of infection, the critical role of automated workflows to facilitate

  6. Truck accidents at freeway ramps : data analysis and high-risk site identification

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-01-01

    To examine the relationship of ramp design to truck accident rates, this paper presents an analysis of truck accidents in Washington State, plus a comparison to limited data from Colorado and California. The authors group freeway truck accidents by r...

  7. Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy.

    PubMed

    Dugato, Marco; Calderoni, Francesco; Berlusconi, Giulia

    2017-06-01

    Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short- and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime- and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups.

  8. Risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

    PubMed

    Arita, Aki; Sasanabe, Ryujiro; Hasegawa, Rika; Nomura, Atsuhiko; Hori, Reiko; Mano, Mamiko; Konishi, Noriyuki; Shiomi, Toshiaki

    2015-12-01

    We examined the risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in subjects with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). We asked licensed drivers with history of snoring and excessive daytime sleepiness who had undergone polysomnography (PSG) at the Department of Sleep Medicine/Sleep Disorders Center at Aichi Medical University Hospital to complete the questionnaires on accidents caused by falling asleep while driving. As a subjective measure of sleepiness, we used the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS). Based on PSG results, 2387 subjects diagnosed with OSAS were divided into three groups according to apnea-hypopnea index (AHI): mild-to-moderate (5 ≤ AHI < 30), severe (30 ≤ AHI < 60), and very severe (AHI ≥ 60). We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression on variables that might explain falling asleep at the wheel. We compared results between each group and simple snorers (394 subjects with AHI < 5) and found the group with very severe OSAS reported significantly higher rates of driving when drowsy and having accidents in the past 5 years due to falling asleep. Our multivariate analysis suggests that scores on the ESS and patient-reported frequency of feeling drowsy while regular driving and working are related to automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving.

  9. Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van den Hurk, Bart; van Aalst, Maarten K.; Amuron, Irene; Bamanya, Deus; Hauser, Tristan; Jongma, Brenden; Lopez, Ana; Mason, Simon; Mendler de Suarez, Janot; Pappenberger, Florian; Rueth, Alexandra; Stephens, Elisabeth; Suarez, Pablo; Wagemaker, Jurjen; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-09-01

    Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new forecast-based financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society forecast-based financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts.

  10. [Characterization of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to irritating gases in China between 1989 and 2003].

    PubMed

    Du, Xie-Yi; Zhang, Min; Wang, Huan-Qiang; Li, Tao; Wang, Hong-Fei; Chen, Shu-Yang; Zhang, Shuang; Qin, Jian; Ji, Li-Ying

    2006-12-01

    To analyze severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to irritating gases reported in China between 1989 and 2003, and to study the characteristics of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents and provide scientific evidences for prevention and control strategies. The data from the national occupational poisoning case reporting system were analyzed with descriptive methods. (1) There were 92 severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to asphyxiating gases during 15 years, which showed that there were 14.5 accidents occurred each year. Forty types of chemicals were reported to cause poisoning accidents directly. On average, there were 14.5 persons poisoned and 0.8 persons died of poisoning in each event. The number of death of poisoning reached 7 in most of the severe accidents. Chlorine was the main irritating gas resulting in poisoning accidents according to the number of accidents, cases and death. (1) The severe acute occupational poisoning related to irritating gases are more dangerous than others because of it is involved in more cases in each accident. (2) The accidents have concentricity in the certain types of chemicals, industries and jobs, and should be focused on control. (3) It is important to develop the program about early warning and forecast and the first aid.

  11. An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bon, A. T.; Ng, T. K.

    2017-01-01

    Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one’s health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter’s additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter’s multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.

  12. Risk Communication Strategies: Lessons Learned from Previous Disasters with a Focus on the Fukushima Radiation Accident.

    PubMed

    Svendsen, Erik R; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Tsuda, Toshihide; Guimaraes, Jean Remy Davee; Tondel, Martin

    2016-12-01

    It has been difficult to both mitigate the health consequences and effectively provide health risk information to the public affected by the Fukushima radiological disaster. Often, there are contrasting public health ethics within these activities which complicate risk communication. Although no risk communication strategy is perfect in such disasters, the ethical principles of risk communication provide good practical guidance. These discussions will be made in the context of similar lessons learned after radiation exposures in Goiania, Brazil, in 1987; the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, Ukraine, in 1986; and the attack at the World Trade Center, New York, USA, in 2001. Neither of the two strategies is perfect nor fatally flawed. Yet, this discussion and lessons from prior events should assist decision makers with navigating difficult risk communication strategies in similar environmental health disasters.

  13. Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    This study addresses the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in the domain of economic decision-making. We present experimental data in support of the hypothesis that speculative forecasts of economic change can impact individuals’ economic decision behavior, prior to any realized changes. In a within-subjects experiment, participants (N = 40) played 180 trials in a Balloon Analogue Risk Talk (BART) in which they could make actual profit. Simple messages about possible (positive and negative) changes in outcome probabilities of future trials had significant effects on measures of risk taking (number of inflations) and actual profits in the game. These effects were enduring, even though no systematic changes in actual outcome probabilities took place following any of the messages. Risk taking also found to be reflected in reaction times revealing increasing reaction times with riskier decisions. Positive and negative economic forecasts affected reaction times slopes differently, with negative forecasts resulting in increased reaction time slopes as a function of risk. These findings suggest that forecasted positive or negative economic change can bias people’s mental model of the economy and reduce or stimulate risk taking. Possible implications for media-fulfilling prophecies in the domain of the economy are considered. PMID:28334031

  14. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    PubMed

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Turner, Sean W. D.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.

    Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strongmore » relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.« less

  16. Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

    DOE PAGES

    Turner, Sean W. D.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; ...

    2017-09-28

    Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strongmore » relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.« less

  17. [Injuries, accidents and mortality in epilepsy: a review of its prevalence risk factors and prevention].

    PubMed

    Téllez-Zenteno, José Francisco; Nguyen, Rita; Hernádez-Ronquillo, Lizbeth

    2010-01-01

    Currently, there is intense clinical research into various aspects of the medical risks relating to epilepsy, including total and cause-specific mortality, accidents and injuries in patients with epilepsy and mortality related with seizures. Submersion injuries, motor vehicle accidents, burns, and head injuries are among the most feared epilepsy-related injuries. Published risk factors for injuries include the number of antiepileptic drugs, history of generalized seizures, and seizure frequency. In general, studies focusing on populations with more severe forms of epilepsy tend to report substantially higher risks of injuries than those involving less selected populations. On the other hand, studies based in non selected populations of people with epilepsy have not shown an increase frequency of injuries in people with epilepsy compared with the general population. Some studies have shown that patients with epilepsy are more frequently admitted to the hospital following an injury. Possible explanations include are more cautious attitude of clinicians toward injuries occurring in the setting of seizures; hospitalization required because of seizures and not to the injuries themselves; and hospitalization driven by other issues, such as comorbidities, which are highly prevalent in patients with epilepsy. This article reviews information about specific type of injuries such as fractures, burns, concussions, dislocations, etc. Finally this article review in a comprehensive way information of mortality in patients with epilepsy. Aspects of mortality discussed in this review are: epidemiology, causes of mortality, sudden death in epilepsy and prevention measures.

  18. Clinical validation of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration among patients who experienced a cerebrovascular accident.

    PubMed

    Cavalcante, Tahissa Frota; de Araújo, Thelma Leite; Moreira, Rafaella Pessoa; Guedes, Nirla Gomes; Lopes, Marcos Venicios de Oliveira; da Silva, Viviane Martins

    2013-01-01

    the study's objective was the clinical validation of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration among patients who experienced cerebrovascular accidents (CVA). a prospective cohort study was conducted with 24 patients hospitalized due to a CVA. The instrument used to collect the data addressed the risk factors for respiratory aspiration, validated by concept analysis and by experts. the most frequent risk factors for respiratory aspiration were: dysphagia (54.2%) and impaired physical mobility (41.7%). The prevalence of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration was 58.3% and the prevalence of respiratory aspiration over the span of 48 hours (monitoring period) was 37.5%. Risk factors for dysphagia and impaired physical mobility were significantly associated with respiratory aspiration. the risk factors dysphagia and impaired physical mobility are good predictors of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration. This study contributed to improving the NANDA-I Taxonomy and the systematization of the nursing process.

  19. Studded and unstudded winter tires in fatal road accidents in Finland.

    PubMed

    Malmivuo, Mikko; Luoma, Juha; Porthin, Markus

    2017-07-04

    The aim of the study was to compare the safety effects of studded and unstudded winter tires based on fatal road accidents. The data included 958 road accidents involving a passenger car or van that occurred in Finland from November to March between 1997 and 2012. Comparing the proportions of winter tire type in accidents and in general traffic showed that the overall effect of tire type on the number of accidents was not significant, although studded tires reduced fatal accidents by 10-15%. Compared to unstudded tires, studded tires reduced accidents significantly only on bald ice in 2005-2012. Drivers using unstudded tires were more experienced and their profession was more frequently related to driving. In addition, the vehicle age was lower for vehicles with unstudded tires. On the other hand, the state of repair was less pertinent for unstudded than for studded tires. These confounding factors offset their effects to some degree. The risk of fatal road accidents in winter between studded and unstudded tires does not differ significantly. However, the accident risk has recently been substantially higher on bald ice for unstudded than for studded tires. The magnitude of this risk difference is difficult to determine without specific information on exposure by road surface.

  20. A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

    PubMed

    Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

    2017-09-01

    Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Does Your Heart Forecast help practitioner understanding and confidence with cardiovascular disease risk communication?

    PubMed

    Wells, Sue; Kerr, Andrew; Broadbent, Elizabeth; MacKenzie, Craig; Cole, Karl; McLachlan, Andy

    2011-03-01

    Explaining what cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk means and engaging in shared decision-making regarding risk factor modification is challenging. An electronic CVD risk visualisation tool containing multiple risk communication strategies (Your Heart Forecast) was designed in 2009. To assess whether this tool facilitated explaining CVD risk to primary care patients. Health professionals who accessed a Primary Health Organisation website or who attended educational peer groups over a three-month period were invited to complete questionnaires before and after viewing a four-minute video about the tool. Respondents were asked to make an informed guess of the CVD risk of a 35-year-old patient (actual CVD risk 5%) and rate the following sentence as being true or false: 'If there were 100 people like Mr Andrews, five would go on to have a cardiac event in the next five years.' They also were asked to rank their understanding of CVD risk and confidence in explaining the concept to patients. Fifty health professionals (37 GPs, 12 practice nurses, one other) completed before and after questionnaires. Respondents' CVD risk estimates pre-video ranged from <5% to 25% and nine rated the sentence as being false. After the video, all respondents answered these questions correctly. Personal rankings from zero to 10 about understanding CVD risk and confidence in explaining risk reduced in range and shifted towards greater efficacy. Whether this tool facilitates discussions of CVD risk with patients and improves patient understanding and lifestyle behaviour needs to be evaluated in a randomised trial.

  2. [Occupational accidents in an oil refinery in Brazil].

    PubMed

    Souza, Carlos Augusto Vaz de; Freitas, Carlos Machado de

    2002-10-01

    Work in oil refineries involves the risk of minor to major accidents. National data show the impact of accidents on this industry. A study was carried out to describe accident profile and evaluate the adequacy of accident reporting system. Data on all accidents reported in an oil refinery in the state of Rio de Janeiro for the year 1997 were organized and analyzed. The study population consisted of 153 injury cases, 83 hired and 69 contracted workers. The variables were: type of accident, operation mode and position of the worker injured. Among hired workers, minor accidents predominated (54.2%) and they occurred during regular operation activities (62.9%). Among contracted workers, there also predominated minor accidents (75.5%) in a higher percentage, but they occurred mainly during maintenance activities (96.8%). The study results showed that there is a predominance of accidents in lower hierarchy workers, and these accidents occur mainly during maintenance activities. There is a need to improve the company's accident reporting system and accident investigation procedures.

  3. Manual accidents, biological risk control, and quality indicators at a children's hospital in north-east Italy.

    PubMed

    Parco, Sergio; Vascotto, Fulvia; Simeone, Roberto; Visconti, Patrizia

    2015-01-01

    Working in health care carries the risk of transmission of infected blood to patients by hospital workers and to other health personnel in the form of occupational infections. Conscientious application of the standard precautions is the main method used to avoid needle stick injuries, contamination of skin and mucous membranes, cuts with sharp tools, and inadequate disposal and recapping of needles. The aim of this work was to investigate in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a region in north-east Italy, the enhancement carried out to prevent situations of biologic risk for health care workers, and to verify the related laboratory analyses. Biological accidents occurring during the years 2012-2013 in the departments of oncology and pediatric-obstetric surgery, and in the intensive care unit at Burlo Garofolo Children's Hospital in Trieste (a large town in Friuli Venezia Giulia) were reviewed, and a new panel of tests was introduced for patients and health care workers, to also detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and aspartate transaminase and immunoglobulin G. All tests were submitted for external quality assessment. In total, 230 nosocomial events were reported by health care workers in the above-mentioned hospital departments in 2012-2013. There were 158 accidents in 2012, including 55 accidental needle stick injuries (34.81%), 59 blood splashes (37.34%), and 44 cuts with infected instruments (27.84%). The risk of sustaining a cut was related to movement error during surgery when the appropriate procedure was not followed or when devices were being assembled and passed between doctors and nurses. Most accidents happened among physicians compared to nurses; the high percentage of needle stick injuries (34.81%) versus nurses (25.94%) were due to incorrect recapping of needles after use. No cases of health care workers being infected with HCV, HBV, or HIV were identified. In 2013, the number of biological accidents

  4. Young people and snowmobiling in northern Norway: accidents, injury prevention and safety strategies.

    PubMed

    Mehus, Grete; Mehus, Alf Gunnar; Germeten, Sidsel; Henriksen, Nils

    2016-01-01

    Snowmobiling among young people in Scandinavia frequently leads to accidents and injuries. Systematic studies of accidents exist, but few studies have addressed young drivers' experiences. The aim of this article is to reveal how young people experience and interpret accidents, and to outline a prevention strategy. Thirty-one girls and 50 boys aged 16-23 years from secondary schools in Northern Norway and on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, participated in 17 focus groups segregated by gender. A content analysis identified themes addressing the research questions. Participants described risk as being inherent to snowmobiling, and claimed that accidents followed from poor risk assessment, careless driving or mishaps. Evaluation of accidents and recommendations for preventive measures varied. Girls acknowledged the risks and wanted knowledge about outdoor life, navigation and external risks. Boys underestimated or downplayed the risks, and wanted knowledge about safety precautions while freeriding. Both genders were aware of how and why accidents occurred, and took precautions. Boys tended to challenge norms in ways that contradict the promotion of safe driving behaviour. Stories of internal justice regarding driving under the influence of alcohol occurred. Adolescents are aware of how accidents occur and how to avoid them. Injury prevention strategies should include a general population strategy and a high-risk strategy targeted at extreme risk-seekers. Drivers, snowmobilers' organisations and the community should share local knowledge in an effort to define problem areas, set priorities and develop and implement preventive measures. Risk prevention should include preparation of safe tracks and focus on safety equipment and safe driving behaviour, but should also pay increased attention to the potential of strengthening normative regulation within peer groups regarding driving behaviour and mutual responsibility for preventing accidents.

  5. Time-Specific Ecologic Niche Models Forecast the Risk of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Dongting Lake District, China, 2005–2010

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Xiao-Ling; Li, Xiu-Jun; Ma, Gui-Hua; Huang, Ru; Yang, Hui-Suo; Tian, Huaiyu; Xiao, Hong

    2014-01-01

    Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors. Conclusions/Significance Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS. PMID:25184252

  6. Dietary habits during the 2 months following the Chernobyl accident and differentiated thyroid cancer risk in a population-based case-control study.

    PubMed

    Xhaard, Constance; Rubino, Carole; Souchard, Vincent; Maillard, Stéphane; Ren, Yan; Borson-Chazot, Françoise; Sassolas, Geneviève; Schvartz, Claire; Colonna, Marc; Lacour, Brigitte; Woronoff, Anne Sophie; Velten, Michel; Marrer, Emilie; Bailly, Laurent; Mariné Barjoan, Eugènia; Schlumberger, Martin; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, Andre; Orgiazzi, Jacques; Adjadj, Elisabeth; de Vathaire, Florent

    2018-02-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident occurred in Ukraine on April 26th 1986. In France, the radioactive fallout and thyroid radiation doses were much lower than in highly contaminated areas. However, a number of risk projections have suggested that a small excess in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) might occur in eastern France due to this low-level fallout. In order to investigate this potential impact, a case-control study on DTC risk factors was started in 2005, focusing on cases who were less than 15 years old at the time of the Chernobyl accident. Here, we aim to evaluate the relationship between some specific reports of potentially contaminated food between April and June 1986 - in particular fresh dairy products and leafy vegetables - and DTC risk. After excluding subjects who were not born before the Chernobyl accident, the study included 747 cases of DTC matched with 815 controls. Odds ratios were calculated using conditional logistic regression models and were reported for all participants, for women only, for papillary cancer only, and excluding microcarcinomas. The DTC risk was slightly higher for participants who had consumed locally produced leafy vegetables. However, this association was not stronger in the more contaminated areas than in the others. Conversely, the reported consumption of fresh dairy products was not statistically associated with DTC risk. Because the increase in DTC risk associated with a higher consumption of locally produced vegetables was not more important in the most contaminated areas, our study lacked power to provide evidence for a strong association between consumption of potentially contaminated food and DTC risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    PubMed

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  8. Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.

    2012-12-01

    -computation - starting with those sources that carry the highest risk. Model computation zones are confined to regions at risk to save computation time. For example, Atlantic sources have been shown to not propagate into the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, fine grid computations are not performed in the Gulf for Atlantic sources. Outputs from the Atlantic model include forecast marigrams at selected sites, maximum amplitudes, drawdowns, and currents for all coastal points. The maximum amplitude maps will be supplemented with contoured energy flux maps which show more clearly the effects of bathymetric features on tsunami wave propagation. During an event, forecast marigrams will be compared to observations to adjust the model results. The modified forecasts will then be used to set alert levels between coastal breakpoints, and provided to emergency management.

  9. Forecasting cyanobacteria dominance in Canadian temperate lakes.

    PubMed

    Persaud, Anurani D; Paterson, Andrew M; Dillon, Peter J; Winter, Jennifer G; Palmer, Michelle; Somers, Keith M

    2015-03-15

    Predictive models based on broad scale, spatial surveys typically identify nutrients and climate as the most important predictors of cyanobacteria abundance; however these models generally have low predictive power because at smaller geographic scales numerous other factors may be equally or more important. At the lake level, for example, the ability to forecast cyanobacteria dominance is of tremendous value to lake managers as they can use such models to communicate exposure risks associated with recreational and drinking water use, and possible exposure to algal toxins, in advance of bloom occurrence. We used detailed algal, limnological and meteorological data from two temperate lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada to determine the factors that are closely linked to cyanobacteria dominance, and to develop easy to use models to forecast cyanobacteria biovolume. For Brandy Lake (BL), the strongest and most parsimonious model for forecasting % cyanobacteria biovolume (% CB) included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP, and % cyanobacteria biovolume two weeks prior. For Three Mile Lake (TML), the best model for forecasting % CB included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP concentration, and 7-d mean wind speed. The models for forecasting % CB in BL and TML are fundamentally different in their lag periods (BL = lag 1 model and TML = lag 2 model) and in some predictor variables despite the close proximity of the study lakes. We speculate that three main factors (nutrient concentrations, water transparency and lake morphometry) may have contributed to differences in the models developed, and may account for variation observed in models derived from large spatial surveys. Our results illustrate that while forecast models can be developed to determine when cyanobacteria will dominate within two temperate lakes, the models require detailed, lake-specific calibration to be effective as risk-management tools. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Probability Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duncan, M.; Frisbee, J.; Wysack, J.

    2014-09-01

    Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is defined as the knowledge and characterization of all aspects of space. SSA is now a fundamental and critical component of space operations. Increased dependence on our space assets has in turn lead to a greater need for accurate, near real-time knowledge of all space activities. With the growth of the orbital debris population, satellite operators are performing collision avoidance maneuvers more frequently. Frequent maneuver execution expends fuel and reduces the operational lifetime of the spacecraft. Thus the need for new, more sophisticated collision threat characterization methods must be implemented. The collision probability metric is used operationally to quantify the collision risk. The collision probability is typically calculated days into the future, so that high risk and potential high risk conjunction events are identified early enough to develop an appropriate course of action. As the time horizon to the conjunction event is reduced, the collision probability changes. A significant change in the collision probability will change the satellite mission stakeholder's course of action. So constructing a method for estimating how the collision probability will evolve improves operations by providing satellite operators with a new piece of information, namely an estimate or 'forecast' of how the risk will change as time to the event is reduced. Collision probability forecasting is a predictive process where the future risk of a conjunction event is estimated. The method utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation that produces a likelihood distribution for a given collision threshold. Using known state and state uncertainty information, the simulation generates a set possible trajectories for a given space object pair. Each new trajectory produces a unique event geometry at the time of close approach. Given state uncertainty information for both objects, a collision probability value can be computed for every trail. This yields a

  11. Thermal mapping as a valuable tool for road weather forecast and winter road maintenance: an example from the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todeschini, Ilaria; Di Napoli, Claudia; Pretto, Ilaria; Merler, Giacomo; Cavaliere, Roberto; Apolloni, Roberto; Antonacci, Gianluca; Piazza, Andrea; Benedetti, Guido

    2016-08-01

    During the winter period ice is likely to form on roads, making pavement surfaces slippery and increasing accident risk. Road surface temperature (RST) is one of the most important parameters in ice formation. The LIFE+ "CLEANROADS" project aims to forecast RSTs in advance in order to support road maintenance services in the timely and effective preparation of preventive anti-icing measures. This support is provided through a novel MDSS (Maintenance Decision Support System). The final goal of the project is to quantitatively demonstrate that the implemented MDSS is capable to minimize the consumption of chemical anti-icing reagents (e.g. sodium chloride) and the associated environmental (water and air) impact while maintaining the current high levels of road safety. In the CLEAN-ROADS system RSTs have been forecast by applying the numerical model METRo (Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads) to a network of RWIS (Road Weather Information System) stations installed on a test route in the Adige Valley (Italy). This forecast is however local and does not take into account typical peculiarities along road network, such as the presence of road sections that are particularly prone to ice formation. Thermal mapping, i.e. the acquisition of mobile RST measurements through infrared thermometry, permits to (i) identify and map those sections, and (ii) extend the forecast from a RWIS station to adjacent areas. The processing of thermal mapping signals is however challenging because of random variations in the road surface emissivity. To overcome this we have acquired several thermal mapping traces along the test route during winter seasons 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. We have then defined a "characteristic" thermal fingerprint as a function of all its historical thermal mapping signals, and used it to spatialize local METRo forecasts. Preliminary results suggest the high potential of such a technique for winter road applications.

  12. Real-time forecasts of dengue epidemics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, with an estimated 2.5 billion people at risk of transmission. In many areas with endemic dengue, disease transmission is seasonal but prone to high inter-annual variability with occasional severe epidemics. Predicting and preparing for periods of higher than average transmission is a significant public health challenge. Here we present a model of dengue transmission and a framework for optimizing model simulations with real-time observational data of dengue cases and environmental variables in order to generate ensemble-based forecasts of the timing and severity of disease outbreaks. The model-inference system is validated using synthetic data and dengue outbreak records. Retrospective forecasts are generated for a number of locations and the accuracy of these forecasts is quantified.

  13. Risk Analysis and Forecast Service for Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wik, Magnus; Pirjola, Risto; Viljanen, Ari; Lundstedt, Henrik

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), occurring during magnetic storms, pose a widespread natural disaster risk to the reliable operation of electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables and railway systems. The solar magnetic activity is the cause of GIC. Solar coronal holes can cause recurrent inter-vals of raised geomagnetic activity, and coronal mass ejections (CME) at the Sun, sometimes producing very high speed plasma clouds with enhanced magnetic fields and particle densities, can cause the strongest geomagnetic storms. When the solar wind interacts with the geomag-netic field, energy is transferred to the magnetosphere, driving strong currents in the ionosphere. When these currents change in time a geoelectric field is induced at the surface of the Earth and in the ground. Finally, this field drives GIC in the ground and in any technological conductor systems. The worst consequence of a severe magnetic storm within a power grid is a complete blackout, as happened in the province of Québec, Canada, in March 1989, and in the city of Malmü, Sweden, in October 2003. Gas and oil pipelines are not regarded as vulnerable to the immediate impact of GIC, but the corrosion rate of buried steel pipes can increase due to GIC, which may thus shorten the lifetime of a pipe. European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents (EURISGIC) is an EU project, that, if approved, will produce the first European-wide real-time prototype forecast service of GIC in power systems, based on in-situ solar wind observations and comprehensive simulations of the Earth's magnetosphere. This project focuses on high-voltage power transmission networks, which are probably currently the most susceptible to GIC effects. Geomagnetic storms cover large geographical regions, at times the whole globe. Consequently, power networks are rightly described as being European critical infrastructures whose disruption or destruction could have a significant impact

  14. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%.

  15. [Clinical resulting risks in the persons injured in the traffic accident depending on the role and position in the traffic].

    PubMed

    Hur'iev, S O; Chundak, S S; Satsyk, S P

    2013-03-01

    Clinical resulting risks of the abdominal organs trauma in the injured persons, as a consequence of a traffic accident, constitute an important component of multicomponent polysystem trauma for the sign of taking part in a traffic.

  16. ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

    PubMed

    Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

    2006-03-31

    In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

  17. 'Worst case' methodology for the initial assessment of societal risk from proposed major accident installations.

    PubMed

    Carter, D A; Hirst, I L

    2000-01-07

    This paper considers the application of one of the weighted risk indicators used by the Major Hazards Assessment Unit (MHAU) of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in formulating advice to local planning authorities on the siting of new major accident hazard installations. In such cases the primary consideration is to ensure that the proposed installation would not be incompatible with existing developments in the vicinity, as identified by the categorisation of the existing developments and the estimation of individual risk values at those developments. In addition a simple methodology, described here, based on MHAU's "Risk Integral" and a single "worst case" even analysis, is used to enable the societal risk aspects of the hazardous installation to be considered at an early stage of the proposal, and to determine the degree of analysis that will be necessary to enable HSE to give appropriate advice.

  18. Serum homocysteine levels in cerebrovascular accidents.

    PubMed

    Zongte, Zolianthanga; Shaini, L; Debbarma, Asis; Singh, Th Bhimo; Devi, S Bilasini; Singh, W Gyaneshwar

    2008-04-01

    Hyperhomocysteinemia has been considered an independent risk factor in the development of stroke. The present study was undertaken to evaluate serum homocysteine levels in patients with cerebrovascular accidents among the Manipuri population and to compare with the normal cases. Ninety-three cerebrovascular accident cases admitted in the hospital were enrolled for the study and twenty-seven age and sex matched individuals free from cerebrovascular diseases were taken as control group. Serum homocysteine levels were estimated by ELISA method using Axis homocysteine EIA kit manufactured by Ranbaxy Diagnostic Ltd. India. The finding suggests that hyperhomocysteinemia is associated with cerebrovascular accident with male preponderance, which increases with advancing age. However, whether hyperhomocysteinemia is the cause or the result of cerebrovascular accidents needs further investigations.

  19. Fuzzy approach for reducing subjectivity in estimating occupational accident severity.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

    2012-03-01

    Quantifying or, more generally, estimating the severity of the possible consequences of occupational accidents is a decisive step in any occupational risk assessment process. Because of the lack of historic information (accident data collection and recording are incipient and insufficient, particularly in construction) and the lack of practical tools in the construction industry, the estimation/quantification of occupational accident severity is a notably arbitrary process rather than a systematic and rigorous assessment. This work proposes several severity functions (based on a safety risk assessment) to represent biomechanical knowledge with the aim of determining the severity level of occupational accidents in the construction industry and, consequently, improving occupational risk assessment quality. We follow a fuzzy approach because it makes it possible to capture and represent imprecise knowledge in a simple and understandable way for users and specialists. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Wheelchair-related accidents: relationship with wheelchair-using behavior in active community wheelchair users.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wan-Yin; Jang, Yuh; Wang, Jung-Der; Huang, Wen-Ni; Chang, Chan-Chia; Mao, Hui-Fen; Wang, Yen-Ho

    2011-06-01

    To report the prevalence, mechanisms, self-perceived causes, consequences, and wheelchair-using behaviors associated with wheelchair-related accidents. A case-control study. Community. A sample of experienced, community-dwelling, active manual and powered wheelchair users (N=95) recruited from a hospital assistive technology service center. Not applicable. Wheelchair-using behaviors, wheelchair-related accidents over a 3-year period, and the mechanisms and consequences of the accidents. Among the 95 participants, 52 (54.7%) reported at least 1 accident and 16 (16.8%) reported 2 or more accidents during the 3 years prior to the interview. A total of 74 accidents, were categorized into tips and falls (87.8%), accidental contact (6.8%), and dangerous operations (5.4%). A logistic regression found individuals who failed to maintain their wheelchairs regularly (odds ratio [OR]=11.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.62-48.61) and used a wheelchair not prescribed by professionals (OR=4.31; 95% CI, 1.10-16.82) had significantly greater risks of accidents. In addition to the risk factor, lack of regular wheelchair maintenance, the Poisson regression corroborated the other risk factor, seat belts not used (incident rate ratio=2.14; 95% CI, 1.08-4.14), for wheelchair-related accidents. Wheelchair-related accidents are closely related to their wheelchair-using behaviors. Services including professional evaluation, repair, maintenance, and an educational program on proper wheelchair use may decrease the risks of wheelchair accidents. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Paralysis from sport and diving accidents.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, H; Gerner, H J

    2001-01-01

    To examine the causes of sport-related spinal cord injuries that developed into paraplegia or tetraplegia, and to compare data from different sports with previous studies in the same geographical region. A retrospective epidemiological study and comparison with previous studies. The Orthopedic Department, specializing in the treatment and rehabilitation of paralyzed patients, at the University of Heidelberg, Germany. Between 1985 and 1997, 1,016 cases of traumatic spinal cord injury presented at the Orthopedic Department at the University of Heidelberg: 6.8% were caused by sport and 7.7% by diving accidents. Sport-related spinal cord injuries with paralysis. A total of 1.016 cases of traumatic spinal cord injury were reviewed. Of these, 14.5% were caused by sport accidents (n = 69) or diving accidents (n = 78). Age of patients ranged from 9 to 52 years. 83% were male. 77% of the patients developed tetraplegia, and 23%, paraplegia. 16 of the sport accidents resulted from downhill skiing, 9 resulted from horseback riding, 7 from modern air sports, 6 from gymnastics, 5 from trampolining, and 26 from other sports. Previous analyses had revealed that paraplegia had mainly occurred from gymnastics, trampolining, or high diving accidents. More recently, however, the number of serious spinal injuries caused by risk-filled sports such as hang gliding and paragliding has significantly increased (p = 0.095), as it has for horseback riding and skiing. Examinations have shown that all patients who were involved in diving accidents developed tetraplegia. An analysis of injury from specific sports is still under way. Analysis of accidents resulting in damage to the spinal cord in respect to different sports shows that sports that have become popular during the last 10 years show an increasing risk of injury. Modern air sports hold the most injuries. Injury-preventing strategies also are presented.

  3. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  4. Higher prevalence of toxoplasmosis in victims of traffic accidents suggest increased risk of traffic accident in Toxoplasma-infected inhabitants of Istanbul and its suburbs.

    PubMed

    Kocazeybek, Bekir; Oner, Yasar Ali; Turksoy, Recep; Babur, Cahit; Cakan, Huseyin; Sahip, Nilgun; Unal, Ali; Ozaslan, Abdi; Kilic, Selcuk; Saribas, Suat; Aslan, Mustafa; Taylan, Aysegul; Koc, Sermet; Dirican, Ahmet; Uner, Huseyin Bulent; Oz, Vecdet; Ertekin, Cemalettin; Kucukbasmaci, Omer; Torun, Müzeyyen Mamal

    2009-05-30

    Reflexes of drivers who have toxoplasmosis have been shown to deteriorate from the actions of the parasitic cysts. The cysts can change the level of the neurotransmitters such as dopamine in the brain and by doing so extend the muscle response time and change personality profiles. In this study, we aimed to determine the frequency of the latent toxoplasmosis (LT) in the driver population who were either injured or died in traffic accidents reported in Istanbul and its suburbs. We compared the results with a control group and discussed the relationship between the LT and the traffic accidents. We included 218 (89.7%) non-fatal, 25 (10.3%) fatal cases in our study as study groups. A total 243 subjects, 234 (96%) male, 9 (4%) female (who were alcohol negative) compared with 191 (95.5%) male and 9 (4.5%) female subjects (control group) who had a traffic accident before but no history of toxoplasmosis were studied. Serologic tests, enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for IgG and IgM, and microimmunoflorescence (MIF) for IgG were used as the reference test, the Sabin-Feldman Dye test (SFDT) was used. According to serologic test results, LT seroprevalence in the study groups was 130 (53.5%) and in the control group 56 (28%) (p<0.0001). A LT was present in 126 out of 234 (53.8%) males in the study groups, and 54 out of 191 (28.3%) males in the control group (p<0.0001). In the 31-44 year age group, there was a significant difference with regard to toxoplasmosis between the study subjects and control groups (p<0.0001). This difference was statistically very significant in (recent and former) cases with middle-aged men (31-44 years old). The results of this retrospective study suggest that LT in drivers, especially those who are between 31 and 44 years might increase the risk for getting involved in a car accident. In a prospective study, Toxoplasma positive and negative subjects can be monitored before they are involved in a traffic accident to clarify the cause and result relationship.

  5. Risk of Fatal Cerebrovascular Accidents after External Beam Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Glottic Larynx Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O’Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S.; Bekelman, Justin E.

    2013-01-01

    Background This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death due to CVA among patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the SEER database. Results The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8 %; 95% CI 2.3%–3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5 %; 95% CI 0.8 %–2.3%, p= 0.024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.04–2.96, p= 0.037). Conclusion Treatment of early stage glottic larynx cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. PMID:23595858

  6. Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

    PubMed

    Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

    2010-02-01

    Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

  7. Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

    PubMed

    Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

    2015-03-01

    Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

    2013-04-01

    A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

  9. Accidents at Nuclear Power Plants and Cancer Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... of the Chernobyl accident, survivors of the atomic bomb explosions in Japan during World War II, and ... about the health effects from the 1945 atomic bomb exposures in that country. This ongoing project is ...

  10. [An analysis of industrial accidents in the working field with a particular emphasis on repeated accidents].

    PubMed

    Wakisaka, I; Yanagihashi, T; Tomari, T; Sato, M

    1990-03-01

    The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  11. Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

    2018-06-01

    The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Time series forecasting of future claims amount of SOCSO's employment injury scheme (EIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulkifli, Faiz; Ismail, Isma Liana; Chek, Mohd Zaki Awang; Jamal, Nur Faezah; Ridzwan, Ahmad Nur Azam Ahmad; Jelas, Imran Md; Noor, Syamsul Ikram Mohd; Ahmad, Abu Bakar

    2012-09-01

    The Employment Injury Scheme (EIS) provides protection to employees who are injured due to accidents whilst working, commuting from home to the work place or during employee takes a break during an authorized recess time or while travelling that is related with his work. The main purpose of this study is to forecast value on claims amount of EIS for the year 2011 until 2015 by using appropriate models. These models were tested on the actual EIS data from year 1972 until year 2010. Three different forecasting models are chosen for comparisons. These are the Naïve with Trend Model, Average Percent Change Model and Double Exponential Smoothing Model. The best model is selected based on the smallest value of error measures using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). From the result, the best model that best fit the forecast for the EIS is the Average Percent Change Model. Furthermore, the result also shows the claims amount of EIS for the year 2011 to year 2015 continue to trend upwards from year 2010.

  13. Purposes and methods of scoring earthquake forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, J.

    2010-12-01

    There are two kinds of purposes in the studies on earthquake prediction or forecasts: one is to give a systematic estimation of earthquake risks in some particular region and period in order to give advice to governments and enterprises for the use of reducing disasters, the other one is to search for reliable precursors that can be used to improve earthquake prediction or forecasts. For the first case, a complete score is necessary, while for the latter case, a partial score, which can be used to evaluate whether the forecasts or predictions have some advantages than a well know model, is necessary. This study reviews different scoring methods for evaluating the performance of earthquake prediction and forecasts. Especially, the gambling scoring method, which is developed recently, shows its capacity in finding good points in an earthquake prediction algorithm or model that are not in a reference model, even if its overall performance is no better than the reference model.

  14. Mapping users' expectations regarding extended-range forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ervasti, Tiina; Gregow, Hilppa; Vajda, Andrea; Laurila, Terhi K.; Mäkelä, Antti

    2018-05-01

    An online survey was used to map the needs and preferences of the Finnish general public concerning extended-range forecasts and their presentation. First analyses of the survey were used to guide the co-design process of novel extended-range forecasts to be developed and tested during the project. In addition, the survey was used to engage the respondents from the general public to participate in a one year piloting phase that started in June 2017. The respondents considered that the tailored extended-range forecasts would be beneficial in planning activities, preparing for the weather risks and scheduling the everyday life. The respondents also perceived the information about the impacts of weather conditions more important than advice on how to prepare for the impacts.

  15. Environmentally-driven ensemble forecasts of dengue fever

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Shaman, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent in the tropics and subtropics, with an estimated 2.5 billion people at risk of transmission. In many areas where dengue is found, disease transmission is seasonal but prone to high inter-annual variability with occasional severe epidemics. Predicting and preparing for periods of higher than average transmission remains a significant public health challenge. Recently, we developed a framework for forecasting dengue incidence using an dynamical model of disease transmission coupled with observational data of dengue cases using data-assimilation methods. Here, we investigate the use of environmental data to drive the disease transmission model. We produce retrospective forecasts of the timing and severity of dengue outbreaks, and quantify forecast predictive accuracy.

  16. Two-stage seasonal streamflow forecasts to guide water resources decisions and water rights allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Block, P. J.; Gonzalez, E.; Bonnafous, L.

    2011-12-01

    Decision-making in water resources is inherently uncertain producing copious risks, ranging from operational (present) to planning (season-ahead) to design/adaptation (decadal) time-scales. These risks include human activity and climate variability/change. As the risks in designing and operating water systems and allocating available supplies vary systematically in time, prospects for predicting and managing such risks become increasingly attractive. Considerable effort has been undertaken to improve seasonal forecast skill and advocate for integration to reduce risk, however only minimal adoption is evident. Impediments are well defined, yet tailoring forecast products and allowing for flexible adoption assist in overcoming some obstacles. The semi-arid Elqui River basin in Chile is contending with increasing levels of water stress and demand coupled with insufficient investment in infrastructure, taxing its ability to meet agriculture, hydropower, and environmental requirements. The basin is fed from a retreating glacier, with allocation principles founded on a system of water rights and markets. A two-stage seasonal streamflow forecast at leads of one and two seasons prescribes the probability of reductions in the value of each water right, allowing water managers to inform their constituents in advance. A tool linking the streamflow forecast to a simple reservoir decision model also allows water managers to select a level of confidence in the forecast information.

  17. Anthropotechnological analysis of industrial accidents in Brazil.

    PubMed Central

    Binder, M. C.; de Almeida, I. M.; Monteau, M.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Ministry of Labour has been attempting to modify the norms used to analyse industrial accidents in the country. For this purpose, in 1994 it tried to make compulsory use of the causal tree approach to accident analysis, an approach developed in France during the 1970s, without having previously determined whether it is suitable for use under the industrial safety conditions that prevail in most Brazilian firms. In addition, opposition from Brazilian employers has blocked the proposed changes to the norms. The present study employed anthropotechnology to analyse experimental application of the causal tree method to work-related accidents in industrial firms in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo. Three work-related accidents were examined in three industrial firms representative of local, national and multinational companies. On the basis of the accidents analysed in this study, the rationale for the use of the causal tree method in Brazil can be summarized for each type of firm as follows: the method is redundant if there is a predominance of the type of risk whose elimination or neutralization requires adoption of conventional industrial safety measures (firm representative of local enterprises); the method is worth while if the company's specific technical risks have already largely been eliminated (firm representative of national enterprises); and the method is particularly appropriate if the firm has a good safety record and the causes of accidents are primarily related to industrial organization and management (multinational enterprise). PMID:10680249

  18. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  19. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  20. Radiation Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in the Cohort of Russian Emergency Workers of the Chernobyl Accident.

    PubMed

    Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Karpenko, S V; Maksioutov, M A; Menyaylo, A N; Tumanov, K A; Kochergina, E V; Kashcheeva, P V; Gorsky, A I; Shchukina, N V; Lovachev, S S; Vlasov, O K; Ivanov, V K

    2017-07-01

    This paper continues a series of publications that analyze the impact of radiation on incidence of circulatory system diseases in the cohort of Russian recovery operation workers (liquidators) and presents the results of the analysis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. The studied cohort consists of 53,772 liquidators who arrived in the Chernobyl accident zone within the first year after the accident (26 April 1986 to 26 April 1987). The individual doses varied from 0.0001 Gy to 1.42 Gy, and the mean external whole body dose in the cohort was 0.161 Gy. A total of 27,456 cases of CVD were diagnosed during the follow-up period 1986-2012 as a result of annual health examinations. A Poisson regression model was applied to estimate radiation risks and other risk factors associated with CVD. The following factors were identified as risk factors for CVD: the dose, duration of the liquidators' work in the Chernobyl zone, and concomitant diseases (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, overweight, and alcohol dependence). The baseline incidence of CVD is statistically significantly (p < 0.001) associated with all studied concomitant diseases. The incidence of CVD has revealed a statistically significant dose response with the lack of a latent period and with the average ERR Gy = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.31, 0.63, p < 0.001. Radiation risks of CVD statistically significantly (p = 0.01) varied with the duration of liquidators' stay in the Chernobyl zone; for those who stayed in the Chernobyl zone less than 6 wk, ERR/Gy = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.53; 1.08, p < 0.001.

  1. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2012-01-01

    Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

  2. Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

    2012-04-01

    Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

  3. [Early management of cerebrovascular accidents].

    PubMed

    Libot, Jérômie; Guillon, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    A cerebrovascular accident requires urgent diagnosis and treatment.The management of a stroke must be early and adapted in order to improve the overall clinical outcome and lower the risk of mortality.

  4. High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.

    2007-01-01

    Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

  5. Network-level accident-mapping: Distance based pattern matching using artificial neural network.

    PubMed

    Deka, Lipika; Quddus, Mohammed

    2014-04-01

    The objective of an accident-mapping algorithm is to snap traffic accidents onto the correct road segments. Assigning accidents onto the correct segments facilitate to robustly carry out some key analyses in accident research including the identification of accident hot-spots, network-level risk mapping and segment-level accident risk modelling. Existing risk mapping algorithms have some severe limitations: (i) they are not easily 'transferable' as the algorithms are specific to given accident datasets; (ii) they do not perform well in all road-network environments such as in areas of dense road network; and (iii) the methods used do not perform well in addressing inaccuracies inherent in and type of road environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new accident mapping algorithm based on the common variables observed in most accident databases (e.g. road name and type, direction of vehicle movement before the accident and recorded accident location). The challenges here are to: (i) develop a method that takes into account uncertainties inherent to the recorded traffic accident data and the underlying digital road network data, (ii) accurately determine the type and proportion of inaccuracies, and (iii) develop a robust algorithm that can be adapted for any accident set and road network of varying complexity. In order to overcome these challenges, a distance based pattern-matching approach is used to identify the correct road segment. This is based on vectors containing feature values that are common in the accident data and the network data. Since each feature does not contribute equally towards the identification of the correct road segments, an ANN approach using the single-layer perceptron is used to assist in "learning" the relative importance of each feature in the distance calculation and hence the correct link identification. The performance of the developed algorithm was evaluated based on a reference accident dataset from the UK confirming that

  6. Cardiac catheterization laboratory inpatient forecast tool: a prospective evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Flanagan, Eleni; Siddiqui, Sauleh; Appelbaum, Jeff; Kasper, Edward K; Levin, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Objective To develop and prospectively evaluate a web-based tool that forecasts the daily bed need for admissions from the cardiac catheterization laboratory using routinely available clinical data within electronic medical records (EMRs). Methods The forecast model was derived using a 13-month retrospective cohort of 6384 catheterization patients. Predictor variables such as demographics, scheduled procedures, and clinical indicators mined from free-text notes were input to a multivariable logistic regression model that predicted the probability of inpatient admission. The model was embedded into a web-based application connected to the local EMR system and used to support bed management decisions. After implementation, the tool was prospectively evaluated for accuracy on a 13-month test cohort of 7029 catheterization patients. Results The forecast model predicted admission with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.722. Daily aggregate forecasts were accurate to within one bed for 70.3% of days and within three beds for 97.5% of days during the prospective evaluation period. The web-based application housing the forecast model was used by cardiology providers in practice to estimate daily admissions from the catheterization laboratory. Discussion The forecast model identified older age, male gender, invasive procedures, coronary artery bypass grafts, and a history of congestive heart failure as qualities indicating a patient was at increased risk for admission. Diagnostic procedures and less acute clinical indicators decreased patients’ risk of admission. Despite the site-specific limitations of the model, these findings were supported by the literature. Conclusion Data-driven predictive analytics may be used to accurately forecast daily demand for inpatient beds for cardiac catheterization patients. Connecting these analytics to EMR data sources has the potential to provide advanced operational decision support. PMID:26342217

  7. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  8. Application of Medium and Seasonal Flood Forecasts for Agriculture Damage Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fakhruddin, Shamsul; Ballio, Francesco; Menoni, Scira

    2015-04-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, major advancements have been made in medium range and seasonal flood forecasting. This progress provides a great opportunity to reduce agriculture damage and improve advisories for early action and planning for flood hazards. This approach can facilitate proactive rather than reactive management of the adverse consequences of floods. In the agricultural sector, for instance, farmers can take a diversity of options such as changing cropping patterns, applying fertilizer, irrigating and changing planting timing. An experimental medium range (1-10 day) and seasonal (20-25 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Thailand and Bangladesh. It provides 51 sets of discharge ensemble forecasts of 1-10 days with significant persistence and high certainty and qualitative outlooks for 20-25 days. This type of forecast could assist farmers and other stakeholders for differential preparedness activities. These ensembles probabilistic flood forecasts have been customized based on user-needs for community-level application focused on agriculture system. The vulnerabilities of agriculture system were calculated based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators for risk and vulnerability assessment were conducted through community consultations. The forecast lead time requirement, user-needs, impacts and management options for crops were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and community surveys. This paper illustrates potential applications of such ensembles for probabilistic medium range and seasonal flood forecasts in a way that is not commonly practiced globally today.

  9. Occupational Accidents with Agricultural Machinery in Austria.

    PubMed

    Kogler, Robert; Quendler, Elisabeth; Boxberger, Josef

    2016-01-01

    The number of recognized accidents with fatalities during agricultural and forestry work, despite better technology and coordinated prevention and trainings, is still very high in Austria. The accident scenarios in which people are injured are very different on farms. The common causes of accidents in agriculture and forestry are the loss of control of machine, means of transport or handling equipment, hand-held tool, and object or animal, followed by slipping, stumbling and falling, breakage, bursting, splitting, slipping, fall, and collapse of material agent. In the literature, a number of studies of general (machine- and animal-related accidents) and specific (machine-related accidents) agricultural and forestry accident situations can be found that refer to different databases. From the database Data of the Austrian Workers Compensation Board (AUVA) about occupational accidents with different agricultural machinery over the period 2008-2010 in Austria, main characteristics of the accident, the victim, and the employer as well as variables on causes and circumstances by frequency and contexts of parameters were statistically analyzed by employing the chi-square test and odds ratio. The aim of the study was to determine the information content and quality of the European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) variables to evaluate safety gaps and risks as well as the accidental man-machine interaction.

  10. Coastal risk forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  11. Coastal risk forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  12. Analysis on Dangerous Source of Large Safety Accident in Storage Tank Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tong; Li, Ying; Xie, Tiansheng; Liu, Yu; Zhu, Xueyuan

    2018-01-01

    The difference between a large safety accident and a general accident is that the consequences of a large safety accident are particularly serious. To study the tank area which factors directly or indirectly lead to the occurrence of large-sized safety accidents. According to the three kinds of hazard source theory and the consequence cause analysis of the super safety accident, this paper analyzes the dangerous source of the super safety accident in the tank area from four aspects, such as energy source, large-sized safety accident reason, management missing, environmental impact Based on the analysis of three kinds of hazard sources and environmental analysis to derive the main risk factors and the AHP evaluation model is established, and after rigorous and scientific calculation, the weights of the related factors in four kinds of risk factors and each type of risk factors are obtained. The result of analytic hierarchy process shows that management reasons is the most important one, and then the environmental factors and the direct cause and Energy source. It should be noted that although the direct cause is relatively low overall importance, the direct cause of Failure of emergency measures and Failure of prevention and control facilities in greater weight.

  13. Consequences of the radiation accident at the Mayak production association in 1957 (the 'Kyshtym Accident').

    PubMed

    Akleyev, A V; Krestinina, L Yu; Degteva, M O; Tolstykh, E I

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an overview of the nuclear accident that occurred at the Mayak Production Association (PA) in the Russian Federation on 29 September 1957, often referred to as 'Kyshtym Accident', when 20 MCi (740 PBq) of radionuclides were released by a chemical explosion in a radioactive waste storage tank. 2 MCi (74 PBq) spread beyond the Mayak PA site to form the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). The paper describes the accident and gives brief characteristics of the efficacy of the implemented protective measures that made it possible to considerably reduce doses to the exposed population. The paper also provides retrospective dosimetry estimates for the members of the EURT Cohort (EURTC) which comprises approximately 21 400 people. During the first two years after the accident a decrease in the group average leukocyte (mainly due to neutrophils and lymphocytes) and thrombocyte count was observed in the population. At later dates an increased excess relative risk of solid cancer incidence and mortality was found in the EURTC.

  14. On The Usage Of Fire Smoke Emissions In An Air Quality Forecasting System To Reduce Particular Matter Forecasting Error

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, H. C.; Pan, L.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; DiMego, G.; Huang, J.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires contribute to air quality problems not only towards primary emissions of particular matters (PM) but also emitted ozone precursor gases that can lead to elevated ozone concentration. Wildfires are unpredictable and can be ignited by natural causes such as lightning or accidently by human negligent behavior such as live cigarette. Although wildfire impacts on the air quality can be studied by collecting fire information after events, it is extremely difficult to predict future occurrence and behavior of wildfires for real-time air quality forecasts. Because of the time constraints of operational air quality forecasting, assumption of future day's fire behavior often have to be made based on observed fire information in the past. The United States (U.S.) NOAA/NWS built the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) based on the U.S. EPA CMAQ to provide air quality forecast guidance (prediction) publicly. State and local forecasters use the forecast guidance to issue air quality alerts in their area. The NAQFC fine particulates (PM2.5) prediction includes emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, as well as natural sources such as dust storms and fires. The fire emission input to the NAQFC is derived from the NOAA NESDIS HMS fire and smoke detection product and the emission module of the US Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. This study focuses on the error estimation of NAQFC PM2.5 predictions resulting from fire emissions. The comparisons between the NAQFC modeled PM2.5 and the EPA AirNow surface observation show that present operational NAQFC fire emissions assumption can lead to a huge error in PM2.5 prediction as fire emissions are sometimes placed at wrong location and time. This PM2.5 prediction error can be propagated from the fire source in the Northwest U.S. to downstream areas as far as the Southeast U.S. From this study, a new procedure has been identified to minimize the aforementioned error. An additional 24 hours

  15. Using ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, M. D.; Maxey, R.; Tavendale, A. C. W.; Buchanan, P.

    2012-04-01

    Improving flood predictions for all sources of flooding is at the centre of flood risk management policy in Scotland. With the introduction of the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act providing a new statutory basis for SEPA's flood warning responsibilities, the pressures on delivering hydrological science developments in support of this legislation has increased. Specifically, flood forecasting capabilities need to develop in support of the need to reduce the impact of flooding through the provision of actively disseminated, reliable and timely flood warnings. Flood forecasting in Scotland has developed significantly in recent years (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012). The development of hydrological models to predict flooding at a catchment scale has relied upon the application of rainfall runoff models utilising raingauge, radar and quantitative precipitation forecasts in the short lead time (less than 6 hours). Single or deterministic forecasts based on highly uncertain rainfall predictions have led to the greatest operational difficulties when communicating flood risk with emergency responders, therefore the emergence of probability-based estimates offers the greatest opportunity for managing uncertain predictions. This paper presents operational application of a physical-conceptual distributed hydrological model on a countrywide basis across Scotland. Developed by CEH Wallingford for SEPA in 2011, Grid-to-Grid (G2G) principally runs in deterministic mode and employs radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall together with weather model predictions to produce forecast river flows, as gridded time-series at a resolution of 1km and for up to 5 days ahead (Cranston, et al., 2012). However the G2G model is now being run operationally using ensemble predictions of rainfall from the MOGREPS-R system to provide probabilistic flood forecasts. By presenting a range of flood predictions on a national scale through this approach, hydrologists are now able to consider an

  16. Weighing costs and losses: A decision making game using probabilistic forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Micha; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Wetterhall, Frederik; Cranston, Michael; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian; Verkade, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly recognised as an effective and reliable tool to communicate uncertainties. The economic value of probabilistic forecasts has been demonstrated by several authors, showing the benefit to using probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts in several sectors, including flood and drought warning, hydropower, and agriculture. Probabilistic forecasting is also central to the emerging concept of risk-based decision making, and underlies emerging paradigms such as impact-based forecasting. Although the economic value of probabilistic forecasts is easily demonstrated in academic works, its evaluation in practice is more complex. The practical use of probabilistic forecasts requires decision makers to weigh the cost of an appropriate response to a probabilistic warning against the projected loss that would occur if the event forecast becomes reality. In this paper, we present the results of a simple game that aims to explore how decision makers are influenced by the costs required for taking a response and the potential losses they face in case the forecast flood event occurs. Participants play the role of one of three possible different shop owners. Each type of shop has losses of quite different magnitude, should a flood event occur. The shop owners are presented with several forecasts, each with a probability of a flood event occurring, which would inundate their shop and lead to those losses. In response, they have to decide if they want to do nothing, raise temporary defences, or relocate their inventory. Each action comes at a cost; and the different shop owners therefore have quite different cost/loss ratios. The game was played on four occasions. Players were attendees of the ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting session of the 2016 EGU Assembly, professionals participating at two other conferences related to hydrometeorology, and a group of students. All audiences were familiar with the principles of forecasting

  17. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  18. Accident rates and safety policies for trucks serving the San Pedro Bay ports.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-04-01

    This study estimates three distinct measures of truck-related accident risk for : several California urban highways, based on a monthly panel of accident and : traffic data spanning from January 2007 through April 2010. The first of these : risk meas...

  19. Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005.

    PubMed

    Laursen, Lise H; Hansen, Henrik L; Jensen, Olaf C

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures.

  20. Childhood mental ability in relation to cause-specific accidents in adulthood: the 1970 British Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Batty, G D; Deary, I J; Schoon, I; Gale, C R

    2007-07-01

    Few data link childhood mental ability (IQ) with risk of accidents, and most published studies have methodological limitations. To examine the relationship between scores from a battery of mental ability tests taken in childhood, and self-reported accidents between the ages of 16 and 30 years. In the British Cohort study, a sample of 8172 cohort members born in Great Britain in 1970 had complete data for IQ score assessed at 10 years of age and accident data self-reported at age 30 years. The relationship between childhood IQ score and later risk of accident was complex, differing according to sex and the type of accident under consideration. Women with higher childhood IQ were more likely than those with lower scores to report having had an accident(s) while at work, in a vehicle, engaging in sports, and in unspecified circumstances. Adjustment for markers of socioeconomic position weakened or eliminated some of these relations, but higher childhood IQ remained associated with increased risk of sporting and unspecified accidents. Men with higher childhood IQ scores were less likely than those with lower scores to report accidents at work, but more likely to report accidents at home, playing sports or in unspecified circumstances. After adjustment for socioeconomic circumstances, higher childhood IQ in men remained associated with an increased risk of accidents at home or in unspecified circumstances. The relationship between childhood mental ability and accidents in adulthood is complex. As in other studies, socioeconomic position has an inconsistent relationship with non-fatal accident type.

  1. Forecasting The Onset Of The East African Rains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    The timing of the rainy seasons is critical for East Africa, where many livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture. The exact onset date of the rains varies from year to year and a delayed start has significant implications for food security. Early warning of anomalous onset can help mitigate risks by informing farmer decisions on crop choice and timing of planting. Onset forecasts may also pre-warn governments and NGOs of upcoming need for financial support and humanitarian intervention. Here we assess the potential to forecast the onset of both the short and long rains over East Africa at subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Based on operational reforecasts from ECMWF, we will demonstrate skilful prediction of onset anomalies. An investigation to determine potential sources of this forecast skill will also be presented. This work has been carried out as part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action".

  2. Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abounoori, Esmaiel; Elmi, Zahra (Mila); Nademi, Younes

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates several GARCH models regarding their ability to forecast volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). These include GARCH models with both Gaussian and fat-tailed residual conditional distribution, concerning their ability to describe and forecast volatility from 1-day to 22-day horizon. Results indicate that AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED model outperforms other models at one-day horizon. Also, the AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED as well as AR(2)-MRSGARCH-t models outperform other models at 5-day horizon. In 10 day horizon, three models of AR(2)-MRSGARCH outperform other models. Concerning 22 day forecast horizon, results indicate no differences between MRSGARCH models with that of standard GARCH models. Regarding Risk management out-of-sample evaluation (95% VaR), a few models seem to provide reasonable and accurate VaR estimates at 1-day horizon, with a coverage rate close to the nominal level. According to the risk management loss functions, there is not a uniformly most accurate model.

  3. Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Improvements in NYC's Operations Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Weiss, W. J.; Porter, J.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Sheer, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Like most other water supply utilities, New York City's Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has operational challenges associated with drought and wet weather events. During drought conditions, DEP must maintain water supply reliability to 9 million customers as well as meet environmental release requirements downstream of its reservoirs. During and after wet weather events, DEP must maintain turbidity compliance in its unfiltered Catskill and Delaware reservoir systems and minimize spills to mitigate downstream flooding. Proactive reservoir management - such as release restrictions to prepare for a drought or preventative drawdown in advance of a large storm - can alleviate negative impacts associated with extreme events. It is important for water managers to understand the risks associated with proactive operations so unintended consequences such as endangering water supply reliability with excessive drawdown prior to a storm event are minimized. Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a critical tool in quantifying these risks and allow water managers to make more informed operational decisions. DEP has recently completed development of an Operations Support Tool (OST) that integrates ensemble streamflow forecasts, real-time observations, and a reservoir system operations model into a user-friendly graphical interface that allows its water managers to take robust and defensible proactive measures in the face of challenging system conditions. Since initial development of OST was first presented at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting, significant improvements have been made to the forecast system. First, the monthly AR1 forecasts ('Hirsch method') were upgraded with a generalized linear model (GLM) utilizing historical daily correlations ('Extended Hirsch method' or 'eHirsch'). The development of eHirsch forecasts improved predictive skill over the Hirsch method in the first week to a month from the forecast date and produced more realistic hydrographs on the tail

  4. How much are you prepared to PAY for a forecast?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Coughlan, Erin; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Bachofen, Carina; van Andel, Schalk Jan

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts are a crucial element of the decision-making chain in the field of flood prevention. The operational use of probabilistic forecasts is increasingly promoted through the development of new novel state-of-the-art forecast methods and numerical skill is continuously increasing. However, the value of such forecasts for flood early-warning systems is a topic of diverging opinions. Indeed, the word value, when applied to flood forecasting, is multifaceted. It refers, not only to the raw cost of acquiring and maintaining a probabilistic forecasting system (in terms of human and financial resources, data volume and computational time), but also and most importantly perhaps, to the use of such products. This game aims at investigating this point. It is a willingness to pay game, embedded in a risk-based decision-making experiment. Based on a ``Red Cross/Red Crescent, Climate Centre'' game, it is a contribution to the international Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX). A limited number of probabilistic forecasts will be auctioned to the participants; the price of these forecasts being market driven. All participants (irrespective of having bought or not a forecast set) will then be taken through a decision-making process to issue warnings for extreme rainfall. This game will promote discussions around the topic of the value of forecasts for decision-making in the field of flood prevention.

  5. Tools for improving safety management in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet occupational accidents analysis period of 1998-2006.

    PubMed

    Aasjord, Halvard L

    2006-01-01

    Reporting of human accidents in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet has always been very difficult because there has been no tradition in making reports on all types of working accidents among fishermen, if the accident does not seem to be very serious or there is no economical incentive to report. Therefore reports are only written when the accidents are serious or if the fisherman is reported sick. Reports about an accident are sent to the insurance company, but another report should also be sent to the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD). Comparing of data from one former insurance company and NMD shows that the real numbers of injuries or serious accidents among Norwegian fishermen could be up to two times more than the numbers reported to NMD. Special analyses of 1690 accidents from the so called PUS-database (NMD) for the period 1998-2002, show that the calculated risk was 23.6 accidents per 1000 man-years. This is quite a high risk level, and most of the accidents in the fishing fleet were rather serious. The calculated risks are highest for fishermen on board the deep sea fleet of trawlers (28.6 accidents per 1000 man-years) and also on the deep sea fleet of purse seiners (28.9 accidents per 1000 man-years). Fatal accidents over a longer period of 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006 are also roughly analysed. These data from SINTEF's own database show that the numbers of fatal accidents have been decreasing over this long period, except for the two periods 1980-84 and 1990-94 where we had some casualties with total losses of larger vessels with the loss of most of the crew, but also many others typical work accidents on smaller vessels. The total numbers of registered Norwegian fishermen and also the numbers of man-years have been drastically reduced over the 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006. The risks of fatal accidents have been very steady over time at a high level, although there has been a marked risk reduction since 1990-94. For the last 8.5-year period of January 1998

  6. Typical occupational accidents with employees of a university hospital in the south of Brazil: epidemiology and prevention.

    PubMed

    Sêcco, Iara Aparecida de Oliveira; Robazzi, Maria Lúcia do Carmo Cruz; Shimizu, Denise Sayuri; Rúbio, Márcia Maria da Silva

    2008-01-01

    Descriptive epidemiologic study that aimed to analyze the typical occupational accidents notified by employees of a university hospital in the South of Brazil from 1997 to 2002, and to estimate their risk indicators. A total of 717 accidents were registered; 86% of them (616) were typical and presented an annual average risk coefficient of 6.0 per 100 employees. The groups that presented more risks for accidents were cooks, woodworkers and nursing auxiliaries, while hands were the most affected area. Regarding the accidents nature, the greatest risks involved biological material. Hence, it is necessary to orient personnel about the legal aspects of occupational accidents and review work processes, especially those related to employees who perform activities at greater risk of transmissible diseases like AIDS and hepatitis B and C.

  7. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    PubMed

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A global flash flood forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-04-01

    The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial

  9. "Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2014-05-01

    Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

  10. Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

    2013-01-01

    Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

  11. Accident rates amongst regular bicycle riders in Tasmania, Australia.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Andrew J; Si, Lei; Gordon, Jared M; Saul, Tim; Curry, Beverley A; Otahal, Petr; Hitchens, Peta L

    2014-11-01

    To characterise the demographics, cycling habits and accident rates of adult cyclists in Tasmania. Volunteers ≥18 years of age who had cycled at least once/week over the previous month provided information on demographics; cycling experience; bicycles owned; hours/km/trips cycled per week; cycling purpose; protective equipment used; and major (required third-party medical treatment or resulted ≥1 day off work) or minor (interfered with individuals' regular daily activities and/or caused financial costs) accidents while cycling. Over 8-months, 136 cyclists (70.6% male) completed the telephone survey. Mean (standard deviation) age was 45.4 (12.1) years with 17.1 (11.4) years of cycling experience. In the week prior to interview, cyclists averaged 6.6 trips/week (totalling 105.7km or 5.0h). The most common reason for cycling was commuting/transport (34% of trips), followed by training/health/fitness (28%). The incidence of major and minor cycling accidents was 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.0) and 3.7 (2.3-5.0) per 100,000km, respectively. Male sex was associated with a significantly lower minor accident risk (incidence rate ratio=0.34, p=0.01). Mountain biking was associated with a significantly higher risk of minor accident compared with road or racing, touring, and city or commuting biking (p<0.05). Physical activity of regular cyclists' exceeds the level recommended for maintenance of health and wellbeing; cyclists also contributed substantially to the local economy. Accident rates are higher in this sample than previously reported in Tasmania and internationally. Mountain biking was associated with higher risks of both major and minor accidents compared to road/racing bike riding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk of thyroid follicular adenoma among children and adolescents in Belarus exposed to iodine-131 after the Chornobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Zablotska, Lydia B; Nadyrov, Eldar A; Polyanskaya, Olga N; McConnell, Robert J; O'Kane, Patrick; Lubin, Jay; Hatch, Maureen; Little, Mark P; Brenner, Alina V; Veyalkin, Ilya V; Yauseyenka, Vasilina V; Bouville, Andre; Drozdovitch, Vladimir V; Minenko, Viktor F; Demidchik, Yuri E; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Rozhko, Alexander V

    2015-11-01

    Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 ((131)I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual (131)I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at <2 years of age. Follicular adenoma radiation risks were not significantly modified by most indicators of past and current iodine deficiency. The present study confirms the (131)I-associated increases in risk of follicular adenoma in the Ukrainian population and adds new evidence on the risk increasing with decreasing age at exposure. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Should we use seasonnal meteorological ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecasting? A case study for nordic watersheds in Canada.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert; Guay, Catherine

    2017-04-01

    reliability diagram. This study covers 10 nordic watersheds. We show that forecast performance according to the CRPS varies with lead-time but also with the period of the year. The raw forecasts from the ECMWF System4 display important biases for both temperature and precipitation, which need to be corrected. The linear scaling method is used for this purpose and is found effective. Bias correction improves forecasts performance, especially during the summer when the precipitations are over-estimated. According to the CRPS, bias corrected forecasts from System4 show performances comparable to those of the ESP system. However, the Ignorance score, which penalizes the lack of calibration (under-dispersive forecasts in this case) more severely than the CRPS, provides a different outlook for the comparison of the two systems. In fact, according to the Ignorance score, the ESP system outperforms forecasts based on System4 in most cases. This illustrates that the joint use of several metrics is crucial to assess the quality of a forecasts system thoroughly. Globally, ESP provide reliable forecasts which can be over-dispersed whereas bias corrected ECMWF System4 forecasts are sharper but at the risk of missing events.

  14. Empirical Bayesian Geographical Mapping of Occupational Accidents among Iranian Workers.

    PubMed

    Vahabi, Nasim; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan; Datta, Somnath

    2017-05-01

    Work-related accidents are believed to be a serious preventable cause of mortality and disability worldwide. This study aimed to provide Bayesian geographical maps of occupational injury rates among workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization. The participants included all insured workers in the Iranian Social Security Organization database in 2012. One of the applications of the Bayesian approach called the Poisson-Gamma model was applied to estimate the relative risk of occupational accidents. Data analysis and mapping were performed using R 3.0.3, Open-Bugs 3.2.3 rev 1012 and ArcMap9.3. The majority of all 21,484 investigated occupational injury victims were male (98.3%) including 16,443 (76.5%) single workers aged 20 - 29 years. The accidents were more frequent in basic metal, electric, and non-electric machining jobs. About 0.4% (96) of work-related accidents led to death, 2.2% (457) led to disability (partial and total), 4.6% (980) led to fixed compensation, and 92.8% (19,951) of the injured victims recovered completely. The geographical maps of estimated relative risk of occupational accidents were also provided. The results showed that the highest estimations pertained to provinces which were mostly located along mountain chains, some of which are categorized as deprived provinces in Iran. The study revealed the need for further investigation of the role of economic and climatic factors in high risk areas. The application of geographical mapping together with statistical approaches can provide more accurate tools for policy makers to make better decisions in order to prevent and reduce the risks and adverse outcomes of work-related accidents.

  15. Description of Various Factors Contributing to Traffic Accidents in Youth and Measures Proposed to Alleviate Recurrence.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Ludovic; Ordonneau, Pauline; Blot, Emilie; Toillon, Charlotte; Ingrand, Pierre; Romo, Lucia

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the leading cause of hospitalization in adolescence, with the 18-24-year-old age group accounting for 23% of deaths by traffic accidents. Recurrence rate is also high. One in four teenagers will have a relapse within the year following the first accident. Cognitive impairments known in adolescence could cause risky behaviors, defined as repetitive engagement in dangerous situations such as road accidents. Two categories of factors seem to be associated with traffic accidents: (1) factors specific to the traffic environment and (2) "human" factors, which seem to be the most influential. Moreover, the establishment of a stronger relation to high speed driving increases traffic accident risks and can also be intensified by sensation seeking. Other factors such as substance use (alcohol, drugs, and "binge drinking") are also identified as risk factors. Furthermore, cell phone use while driving and attention deficit disorder with or without hyperactivity also seem to be important risk factors for car accidents. The family environment strongly influences a young person's driving behavior. Some interventional driving strategies and preventive measures have reduced the risk of traffic accidents among young people, such as the graduated driver licensing program and advertising campaigns. So far, few therapeutic approaches have been implemented. Reason why, we decided to set up an innovative strategy consisting of a therapeutic postaccident group intervention, entitled the ECARR2 protocol, to prevent recurrence among adolescents and young adults identified at risk, taking into account the multiple risk factors.

  16. Risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents after external beam radiation therapy for early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer.

    PubMed

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O'Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S; Bekelman, Justin E

    2014-05-01

    This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) in patients with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death because of CVA among patients with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3% to 3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5%; 95% CI, 0.8% to 2.3%; p = .024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.04-2.96; p = .037). Treatment for early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.

    PubMed

    Saenko, V; Ivanov, V; Tsyb, A; Bogdanova, T; Tronko, M; Demidchik, Yu; Yamashita, S

    2011-05-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the worst industrial accident of the last century that involved radiation. The unprecedented release of multiple different radioisotopes led to radioactive contamination of large areas surrounding the accident site. The exposure of the residents of these areas was varied and therefore the consequences for health and radioecology could not be reliably estimated quickly. Even though some studies have now been ongoing for 25 years and have provided a better understanding of the situation, these are yet neither complete nor comprehensive enough to determine the long-term risk. A true assessment can only be provided after following the observed population for their natural lifespan. Here we review the technical aspects of the accident and provide relevant information on radioactive releases that resulted in exposure of this large population to radiation. A number of different groups of people were exposed to radiation: workers involved in the initial clean-up response, and members of the general population who were either evacuated from the settlements in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant vicinity shortly after the accident, or continued to live in the affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Through domestic efforts and extensive international co-operation, essential information on radiation dose and health status for this population has been collected. This has permitted the identification of high-risk groups and the use of more specialised means of collecting information, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up. Because radiation-associated thyroid cancer is one of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, a particular emphasis is placed on this malignancy. The initial epidemiological studies are reviewed, as are the most significant studies and/or aid programmes in the three affected countries. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  18. Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of

  19. Risk Management in Earthquakes, Financial Markets, and the Game of 21: The role of Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Timecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes and financial markets share surprising similarities [1]. For example, the well-known VIX index, which by definition is the implied volatility of the Standard and Poors 500 index, behaves in very similar quantitative fashion to time series for earthquake rates. Both display sudden increases at the time of an earthquake or an announcement of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [2], and both decay as an inverse power of time. Both can be regarded as examples of first order phase transitions [1], and display fractal and scaling behavior associated with critical transitions, such as power-law magnitude-frequency relations in the tails of the distributions. Early quantitative investors such as Edward Thorpe and John Kelly invented novel methods to mitigate or manage risk in games of chance such as blackjack, and in markets using hedging techniques that are still in widespread use today. The basic idea is the concept of proportional betting, where the gambler/investor bets a fraction of the bankroll whose size is determined by the "edge" or inside knowledge of the real (and changing) odds. For earthquake systems, the "edge" over nature can only exist in the form of a forecast (probability of a future earthquake); a nowcast (knowledge of the current state of an earthquake fault system); or a timecast (statistical estimate of the waiting time until the next major earthquake). In our terminology, a forecast is a model, while the nowcast and timecast are analysis methods using observed data only (no model). We also focus on defined geographic areas rather than on faults, thereby eliminating the need to consider specific fault data or fault interactions. Data used are online earthquake catalogs, generally since 1980. Forecasts are based on the Weibull (1952) probability law, and only a handful of parameters are needed. These methods allow the development of real time hazard and risk estimation using cloud-based technologies, and permit the application of

  20. [Fatal occupational accidents in Lombardy].

    PubMed

    Pianosi, G

    1995-01-01

    All fatal occupational accidents compensated in Lombardy from 1984 to 1989 were analyzed (1259 cases): significant differences between geographical distribution of fatal occupational accidents and workers were observed. Males accounted for about 95% of fatalities; an excess of cases was shown in both young and elderly workers. Death was the consequence of injuries involving most frequently the head, thorax and spinal cord. An excess of fatalities was observed in agriculture and, at a lower level, in manufacturing industries; small enterprises were involved in approximately 25% of fatalities occurring in the manufacturing industries and services. Employers were the victims of fatal accidents in 50% of cases in agriculture and in 70% of cases in craft industries. Construction, agriculture and transport accounted for about 50% of all fatalities. About 50% of fatal occupational accidents were related to vehicle use: the victim was the driver in the majority of cases, sometimes the victim was run over by a vehicle or fell from a vehicle. The results agree with some previous observations (e.g.: sex and age distribution; construction, agriculture and transport as working activities at high accident risk); but some original observations have emerged, in particular about the frequency of employers as victims and the role of vehicles in the genesis of fatal occupational accidents. If further studies confirm these latter observations, important developments could follow in preventive action design and implementation.

  1. Medium Range Ensembles Flood Forecasts for Community Level Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fakhruddin, S.; Kawasaki, A.; Babel, M. S.; AIT

    2013-05-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, there has been a major advancement in medium range and seasonal forecasting. These could provide a great opportunity to improve early warning systems and advisories for early action for strategic and long term planning. This could result in increasing emphasis on proactive rather than reactive management of adverse consequences of flood events. This can be also very helpful for the agricultural sector by providing a diversity of options to farmers (e.g. changing cropping pattern, planting timing, etc.). An experimental medium range (1-10 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh which provides 51 set of discharge ensembles forecasts of one to ten days with significant persistence and high certainty. This could help communities (i.e. farmer) for gain/lost estimation as well as crop savings. This paper describe the application of ensembles probabilistic flood forecast at the community level for differential decision making focused on agriculture. The framework allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are germane to a particular situation, and obtain the management options that are possible, and the exogenous influences that should be taken into account before planning and decision making. risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted through community consultation. The forecast lead time requirement, users' needs, impact and management options for crops, livestock and fisheries sectors were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and questionnaire survey.

  2. The Value, Protocols, and Scientific Ethics of Earthquake Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, Thomas H.

    2013-04-01

    Earthquakes are different from other common natural hazards because precursory signals diagnostic of the magnitude, location, and time of impending seismic events have not yet been found. Consequently, the short-term, localized prediction of large earthquakes at high probabilities with low error rates (false alarms and failures-to-predict) is not yet feasible. An alternative is short-term probabilistic forecasting based on empirical statistical models of seismic clustering. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts can attain prospective probability gains up to 1000 relative to long-term forecasts. The value of such information is by no means clear, however, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing operational forecasting protocols in this sort of "low-probability environment." This paper will explore the complex interrelations among the valuation of low-probability earthquake forecasting, which must account for social intangibles; the protocols of operational forecasting, which must factor in large uncertainties; and the ethics that guide scientists as participants in the forecasting process, who must honor scientific principles without doing harm. Earthquake forecasts possess no intrinsic societal value; rather, they acquire value through their ability to influence decisions made by users seeking to mitigate seismic risk and improve community resilience to earthquake disasters. According to the recommendations of the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350), operational forecasting systems should appropriately separate the hazard-estimation role of scientists from the decision-making role of civil protection authorities and individuals. They should

  3. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    PubMed

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

    2013-03-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any

  4. Nutritional variables and work-related accidents: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    de Medeiros, M A T; Zangirolani, Lia Thieme Oikawa; Cordeiro, Ricardo Carlos; da Costa, Proença Rossana Pacheco; Diez-Garcia, Rosa Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Nutritional aspects are important for the prevention of diseases and disorders, and few studies have focused on the relationship between risk of work injury and nutritional variables. This study aimed to verify whether nutritional variables constitute risk factors for work-related accidents. 1,422 industrial workers (600 cases plus 822 controls). A case-control study was carried out in an industrial city in south-east Brazil. A multiple logistic regression model was adjusted using work-related accidents as the response variable and nutritional variables as predictors. The associations were assessed by Odds Ratio (OR), with a p-value < 0.05. 47.29% of the workers were overweight or obese. Protective factors for work-related accidents were (a) attending formal education for an above average number of years (OR=0.91, p< 0.0001) and (b) eating a traditional dinner (OR=0.67, p=0.0087). Risks factors were (a) hard physical effort in the workplace (OR=1.37, p< 0.0001), (b) having lunch in the workplace (OR=1.57, p<0.0001) and (c) receiving government benefits in the form of food stamps (OR=1.39, p=0.0350) or food baskets (OR=1.30, p=0.0414). Our findings suggest an association between nutritional variables and work-related accidents. This indicates the need, during the formulation of policies for these kinds of government benefits, to include nutrition aspects in order to minimize work-related accidents risks.

  5. Communicating weather forecast uncertainty: Do individual differences matter?

    PubMed

    Grounds, Margaret A; Joslyn, Susan L

    2018-03-01

    Research suggests that people make better weather-related decisions when they are given numeric probabilities for critical outcomes (Joslyn & Leclerc, 2012, 2013). However, it is unclear whether all users can take advantage of probabilistic forecasts to the same extent. The research reported here assessed key cognitive and demographic factors to determine their relationship to the use of probabilistic forecasts to improve decision quality. In two studies, participants decided between spending resources to prevent icy conditions on roadways or risk a larger penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. Several forecast formats were tested, including a control condition with the night-time low temperature alone and experimental conditions that also included the probability of freezing and advice based on expected value. All but those with extremely low numeracy scores made better decisions with probabilistic forecasts. Importantly, no groups made worse decisions when probabilities were included. Moreover, numeracy was the best predictor of decision quality, regardless of forecast format, suggesting that the advantage may extend beyond understanding the forecast to general decision strategy issues. This research adds to a growing body of evidence that numerical uncertainty estimates may be an effective way to communicate weather danger to general public end users. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  7. The three essentials for accident prevention.

    PubMed

    Eastman, Crystal

    2014-11-01

    This article was written by Crystal Eastman when she was Secretary of the New York Commission on Employers' Liability and Causes of Industrial Accidents, Unemployment, and Lack of Farm Labor. It was published in July of 1911, in Volume 38, Number 1 of the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, pages 98-107. The issue title was "Risks in Modern Industry." Eastman calls for the prevention of workplace accidents through three essentials: injury surveillance/reporting (with annual public reporting of the data); government enforcement of accident prevention laws, via departments with well-paid and well-trained officials and inspectors, fines that are high enough to be a deterrence to employers, and the power to have police shut down a factory if preventive measures are not installed; and a workers' compensation system-"a system of liability by which an employer can reduce his accident costs, not by hiring a more unscrupulous attorney and a more hard-hearted claim agent, but only by reducing his accidents."

  8. Stressful life events and occupational accidents.

    PubMed

    Cordeiro, Ricardo; Dias, Adriano

    2005-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the association between stressful life events and occupational accidents. This was a population-based case-control study, carried out in the city of Botucatu, in southeast Brazil. The cases consisted of 108 workers who had recently experienced occupational accidents. Each case was matched with three controls. The cases and controls answered a questionnaire about recent exposure to stressful life events. Reporting of "environmental problems", "being a victim of assault", "not having enough food at home" and "nonoccupational fatigue" were found to be risk factors for work-related accidents with estimated incidence rate ratios of 1.4 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-1.7], 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.7), 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.6), and 1.4 (95% CI 1.2-1.7) respectively. The findings of the study suggested that nonwork variables contribute to occupational accidents, thus broadening the understanding of these phenomena, which can support new approaches to the prevention of occupational accidents.

  9. Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

    2010-05-01

    Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

  10. Forecasting Skill

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  11. Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

    2012-10-01

    Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.

  12. Laterality, spatial abilities, and accident proneness.

    PubMed

    Voyer, Susan D; Voyer, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Although handedness as a measure of cerebral specialization has been linked to accident proneness, more direct measures of laterality are rarely considered. The present study aimed to fill that gap in the existing research. In addition, individual difference factors in accident proneness were further examined with the inclusion of mental rotation and navigation abilities measures. One hundred and forty participants were asked to complete the Mental Rotations Test, the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction scale, the Greyscales task, the Fused Dichotic Word Test, the Waterloo Handedness Questionnaire, and a grip strength task before answering questions related to number of accidents in five areas. Results indicated that handedness scores, absolute visual laterality score, absolute response time on the auditory laterality index, and navigation ability were significant predictors of the total number of accidents. Results are discussed with respect to cerebral hemispheric specialization and risk-taking attitudes and behavior.

  13. The role of parental risk judgements, transport safety attitudes, transport priorities and accident experiences on pupils' walking to school.

    PubMed

    Mehdizadeh, Milad; Nordfjaern, Trond; Mamdoohi, Amir Reza; Shariat Mohaymany, Afshin

    2017-05-01

    Walking to school could improve pupils' health condition and might also reduce the use of motorized transport modes, which leads to both traffic congestion and air pollution. The current study aims to examine the role of parental risk judgements (i.e. risk perception and worry), transport safety attitudes, transport priorities and accident experiences on pupils' walking and mode choices on school trips in Iran, a country with poor road safety records. A total of 1078 questionnaires were randomly distributed among pupils at nine public and private schools in January 2014 in Rasht, Iran. Results from valid observations (n=711) showed that parents with high probability assessments of accidents and strong worry regarding pupils' accident risk while walking were less likely to let their children walk to school. Parents with high safety knowledge were also more likely to allow their pupils to walk to school. Parents who prioritized convenience and accessibility in transport had a stronger tendency to choose motorized modes over walking modes. Also, parents who prioritized safety and security in transport were less likely to allow pupils to walk to school. Elasticities results showed that a one percent increase in priorities of convenience and accessibility, priorities of safety and security, car ownership and walking time from home to school reduced walking among pupils by a probability of 0.62, 0.20, 0.86 and 0.57%, respectively. A one percent increase in parental safety knowledge increased the walking probability by around 0.25%. A 1 unit increase in parental probability assessment and worry towards pupils' walking, decreased the probability of choosing walking mode by 0.11 and 0.05, respectively. Policy-makers who aim to promote walking to schools should improve safety and security of the walking facilities and increase parental safety knowledge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Traffic crash accidents in Tehran, Iran: Its relation with circadian rhythm of sleepiness.

    PubMed

    Sadeghniiat-Haghighi, Khosro; Yazdi, Zohreh; Moradinia, Mohsen; Aminian, Omid; Esmaili, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are one of main problems in Iran. Multiple factors cause traffic accidents and the most important one is sleepiness. This factor, however, is given less attention in our country. Road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness are studied. In this cross-sectional study, all road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness, which were reported by police, were studied in Tehran province in 2009. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was increased by more than sevenfold (odds ratio = 7.33) in low alertness hours (0:00-6:00) compared to other time of day. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was decreased by 0.15-fold (odds ratio = 0.15) in hours with maximum of alertness (18:00-22:00) of circadian rhythm compared to other time of day. The occurrence of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness has significant statistical relations with driving during lowest point of alertness of circadian rhythm.

  15. [Knowledge of accident causation research in relation to age-induced decrease in the performance of elderly motorists, their accident risk and legal consequences].

    PubMed

    Seib, H

    1990-01-01

    Elderly motorists lose a significant amount of their mental(-somatic) and sensomotor capabilities. No data is available on the percentage of elderly motorists involved in car accidents. Their accident risk, however, is not above average because that decrease is outweighed by increased experience and a more thoughtful manner of driving. The percentage of elderly, especially female pedestrians killed by autos is very high. This is mainly due to age-specific mortality and to the high proportion of aged people, especially women, within the population. Our jurisdiction concerning responsibilities requires elderly people to become aware of any deficiencies and to take them into account. The administrative courts are very reserved in withdrawing driving licenses because of age-caused deficiencies. The mere fact that a driver is very old does not suffice; it even does not justify seeking a psychomedical opinion. In this paper it is argued that actions provided for by the law and regulations asking for a periodical check-up of sensomotor and mental capabilities of the elderly driver are disproportionate. Introducing an "eye-certificate" for all motorists as suggested by the German Ophthalmological Society, however, is considered useful and appropriate since deficiencies of vision have been discovered for all age groups.

  16. Individual factors explain neighbourhood variations in accidents to children under 5 years of age.

    PubMed

    Reading, Richard; Jones, Andrew; Haynes, Robin; Daras, Konstantinos; Emond, Alan

    2008-09-01

    Previous studies have identified possible neighbourhood-level influences on the risk of injuries to preschool children, but none have had sufficient data at both household and area level to explain these neighbourhood effects. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, which recruited over 14,062 children at birth in the former county of Avon, UK, and collected information about accidents, as well as extensive social, health and developmental data throughout the first 5 years of life. This information was combined with census and geographical data in order to identify neighbourhood influences on accident risks and then attempt to explain these using multilevel regression modelling. A small but statistically significant amount of between-neighbourhood variance in accident risk was found, with neighbourhood intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.82% for any accident, and 0.84% for accidents resulting in injury requiring medical attention. This was entirely accounted for by a variety of child, parental and household level variables. Independent risk factors for both outcomes were children who were developmentally more advanced or displayed greater conduct and behavioural problems, mothers who were of younger age, who were without work, who were smokers, whose partners were unemployed or drank alcohol excessively, and households in which there had recently been adverse life events, or which were under financial stress. The mother's perceptions of neighbourhood quality also explained some of the risks for any accident, but not for medically attended accidents, and this was a variable that operated at the level of individual households rather than at the level of neighbourhoods. The implications of this study are that differences in accident risk between neighbourhoods are explained by geographical clustering of similar types of children, families and households. Interventions should focus more on parental factors and household social

  17. Forecasting stock market volatility: Do realized skewness and kurtosis help?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mei, Dexiang; Liu, Jing; Ma, Feng; Chen, Wang

    2017-09-01

    In this study, we investigate the predictability of the realized skewness (RSK) and realized kurtosis (RKU) to stock market volatility, that has not been addressed in the existing studies. Out-of-sample results show that RSK, which can significantly improve forecast accuracy in mid- and long-term, is more powerful than RKU in forecasting volatility. Whereas these variables are useless in short-term forecasting. Furthermore, we employ the realized kernel (RK) for the robustness analysis and the conclusions are consistent with the RV measures. Our results are of great importance for portfolio allocation and financial risk management.

  18. Description of Various Factors Contributing to Traffic Accidents in Youth and Measures Proposed to Alleviate Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Gicquel, Ludovic; Ordonneau, Pauline; Blot, Emilie; Toillon, Charlotte; Ingrand, Pierre; Romo, Lucia

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the leading cause of hospitalization in adolescence, with the 18–24-year-old age group accounting for 23% of deaths by traffic accidents. Recurrence rate is also high. One in four teenagers will have a relapse within the year following the first accident. Cognitive impairments known in adolescence could cause risky behaviors, defined as repetitive engagement in dangerous situations such as road accidents. Two categories of factors seem to be associated with traffic accidents: (1) factors specific to the traffic environment and (2) “human” factors, which seem to be the most influential. Moreover, the establishment of a stronger relation to high speed driving increases traffic accident risks and can also be intensified by sensation seeking. Other factors such as substance use (alcohol, drugs, and “binge drinking”) are also identified as risk factors. Furthermore, cell phone use while driving and attention deficit disorder with or without hyperactivity also seem to be important risk factors for car accidents. The family environment strongly influences a young person’s driving behavior. Some interventional driving strategies and preventive measures have reduced the risk of traffic accidents among young people, such as the graduated driver licensing program and advertising campaigns. So far, few therapeutic approaches have been implemented. Reason why, we decided to set up an innovative strategy consisting of a therapeutic postaccident group intervention, entitled the ECARR2 protocol, to prevent recurrence among adolescents and young adults identified at risk, taking into account the multiple risk factors. PMID:28620324

  19. Injury protection and accident causation parameters for vulnerable road users based on German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS.

    PubMed

    Otte, Dietmar; Jänsch, Michael; Haasper, Carl

    2012-01-01

    Within a study of accident data from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), vulnerable road users are investigated regarding injury risk in traffic accidents. GIDAS is the largest in-depth accident study in Germany. Due to a well-defined sampling plan, representativeness with respect to the federal statistics is also guaranteed. A hierarchical system ACASS (Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps) was developed in GIDAS, describing the human causation factors in a chronological sequence. The accordingly classified causation factors - derived from the systematic of the analysis of human accident causes ("7 steps") - can be used to describe the influence of accident causes on the injury outcome. The bases of the study are accident documentations over ten years from 1999 to 2008 with 8204 vulnerable road users (VRU), of which 3 different groups were selected as pedestrians n=2041, motorcyclists n=2199 and bicyclists n=3964, and analyzed on collisions with cars and trucks as well as vulnerable road users alone. The paper will give a description of the injury pattern and injury mechanisms of accidents. The injury frequencies and severities are pointed out considering different types of VRU and protective measures of helmet and clothes of the human body. The impact points are demonstrated on the car, following to conclusion of protective measures on the vehicle. Existing standards of protection devices as well as interdisciplinary research, including accident and injury statistics, are described. With this paper, a summarization of the existing possibilities on protective measures for pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists is given and discussed by comparison of all three groups of vulnerable road users. Also the relevance of special impact situations and accident causes mainly responsible for severe injuries are pointed out, given the new orientation of research for the avoidance and reduction of accident patterns. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Industrial accidents are related to relative body weight: the Israeli CORDIS study.

    PubMed Central

    Froom, P; Melamed, S; Kristal-Boneh, E; Gofer, D; Ribak, J

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The accident rate might be influenced by intrinsic characteristics of the workers, by risks inherent in the work environment, or a combination of these factors. As increased weight may be associated with sleep disturbances and fatigue, a high body mass index (BMI) might be an independent risk factor for accidents in industrial workers. METHODS: 3801 men were examined and followed up for two years for the occurrence of accidents. The objective environmental conditions were recorded and translated into a single score of ergonomic stress levels. Height and weight were recorded, as were possible confounding factors including measures of fatigue, type A personality, total night time sleep, job satisfaction, somatic complaints, smoking, and education levels. RESULTS: Both BMI and ergonomic stress levels independently predicted involvement in accidents (two or more) with those in the highest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with high ergonomic stress levels having a 4-6 times increased risk of accidents compared with those in the lowest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with low ergonomic stress levels (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.4-9.0, P < 0.001). Although increasing somatic complaints and a low educational level also were predictors of accidents, they did not mediate the effect of the BMI on the accident rate. Increasing age, less smoking, and decreased sleep hours were significantly associated with an increased BMI, but the association of BMI and involvement in accidents also could not be explained by those factors or the other confounders. CONCLUSIONS: BMI independently influences the accident rate. Further studies warranted to confirm these findings and to explore mechanisms supporting biological plausibility. PMID:9004929

  1. Forecast and virtual weather driven plant disease risk modeling system

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    We describe a system in use and development that leverages public weather station data, several spatialized weather forecast types, leaf wetness estimation, generic plant disease models, and online statistical evaluation. Convergent technological developments in all these areas allow, with funding f...

  2. Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

  3. School accidents in Austria.

    PubMed

    Schalamon, Johannes; Eberl, Robert; Ainoedhofer, Herwig; Singer, Georg; Spitzer, Peter; Mayr, Johannes; Schober, Peter H; Hoellwarth, Michael E

    2007-09-01

    The aim of this study was to obtain information about the mechanisms and types of injuries in school in Austria. Children between 0 and 18 years of age presenting with injuries at the trauma outpatient in the Department of Pediatric Surgery in Graz and six participating hospitals in Austria were evaluated over a 2-year prospective survey. A total of 28,983 pediatric trauma cases were registered. Personal data, site of the accident, circumstances and mechanisms of accident and the related diagnosis were evaluated. At the Department of Pediatric Surgery in Graz 21,582 questionnaires were completed, out of which 2,148 children had school accidents (10%). The remaining 7,401 questionnaires from peripheral hospitals included 890 school accidents (12%). The male/female ratio was 3:2. In general, sport injuries were a predominant cause of severe trauma (42% severe injuries), compared with other activities in and outside of the school building (26% severe injuries). Injuries during ball-sports contributed to 44% of severe injuries. The upper extremity was most frequently injured (34%), followed by lower extremity (32%), head and neck area (26%) and injuries to thorax and abdomen (8%). Half of all school related injuries occur in children between 10 and 13 years of age. There are typical gender related mechanisms of accident: Boys get frequently injured during soccer, violence, and collisions in and outside of the school building and during craft work. Girls have the highest risk of injuries at ball sports other than soccer.

  4. Regional crop yield forecasting: a probabilistic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Wit, A.; van Diepen, K.; Boogaard, H.

    2009-04-01

    Information on the outlook on yield and production of crops over large regions is essential for government services dealing with import and export of food crops, for agencies with a role in food relief, for international organizations with a mandate in monitoring the world food production and trade, and for commodity traders. Process-based mechanistic crop models are an important tool for providing such information, because they can integrate the effect of crop management, weather and soil on crop growth. When properly integrated in a yield forecasting system, the aggregated model output can be used to predict crop yield and production at regional, national and continental scales. Nevertheless, given the scales at which these models operate, the results are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly known weather conditions and crop management. Current yield forecasting systems are generally deterministic in nature and provide no information about the uncertainty bounds on their output. To improve on this situation we present an ensemble-based approach where uncertainty bounds can be derived from the dispersion of results in the ensemble. The probabilistic information provided by this ensemble-based system can be used to quantify uncertainties (risk) on regional crop yield forecasts and can therefore be an important support to quantitative risk analysis in a decision making process.

  5. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  6. Accidents in Germany: evaluation of the german telephone health survey 2004.

    PubMed

    Saß, Anke-Christine

    2008-09-01

    In the year 2006 there were over 19 000 fatal accidents in Germany and estimates put the number of accidental injuries at more than 8 million. Detailed information on the pattern of accidents is indispensable for the definition of priorities in accident prevention. The German Telephone Health Survey 2004 provides representative cross-sectional data on the health of German residents from 18 years of age (n = 7341). Questions on the prevalence of accidents (13 items) were selected for analysis. Every tenth interviewee reported being injured in an accident in the previous 12 months. Men, particularly young men, are at greater risk of accidents than women. Almost one third of all accidents occurred at home. Social status had no influence on the probability of having an accident, but did affect where the accident happened. The survey yields information on the overall pattern of non-fatal accidents in Germany. The data point to target groups for accident prevention measures.

  7. Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Garba, Nuraddeen Nasiru; Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Gabdo, Hamman Tukur; Liman, Muhammad Sanusi

    2015-02-01

    This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. The influence of passenger car front shape on pedestrian injury risk observed from German in-depth accident data.

    PubMed

    Li, Guibing; Lyons, Mathew; Wang, Bingyu; Yang, Jikuang; Otte, Dietmar; Simms, Ciaran

    2017-04-01

    Quantified relationships between passenger car front shape and pedestrian injury risk derived from accident data are sparse, especially considering the significant recent changes in car front design. The purpose of this paper is therefore to investigate the detailed effects of passenger car front shape on injury risk to a pedestrian's head, thorax, pelvis and leg in the event of a vehicle pedestrian impact. Firstly, an accident sample of 594 pedestrian cases captured during 2000-2015 from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database was employed. Multicollinearity diagnostic statistics were then used to detect multicollinearity between the predictors. Following this, logistic regression was applied to quantify the effects of passenger car front shape on injury risks while controlling for impact speed and pedestrian age. Results indicate that the bumper lower depth (BLD), bumper lower height (BLH), bumper upper height (BUH) and normalised bumper lower/upper height (NBLH/NBUH) are statistically significant for AIS2+ leg injury risk. The normalised bonnet leading edge height (NBLEH) has a statistically significant influence on AIS2+ femur/pelvis injury occurrence. The passenger car front shape did not show statistical significance for AIS3+ thorax and head injuries. The impact speed and pedestrian age are generally significant factors influencing AIS2+ leg and pelvis injuries, and AIS3+ thorax and head injuries. However, when head impacts are fixed on the central windscreen region both pedestrian age and impact speed are not statistically significant for AIS3+ head injury. For quantified effects, when controlling for speed, age and BUH, an average 7% and 6% increase in AIS2+ leg injury odds was observed for every 1cm increase in BLD and BLH respectively; 1cm increase in BUH results in a 7% decrease in AIS2+ leg injury odds when the BLD or BLH are fixed respectively (again controlling for impact speed and pedestrian age); the average AIS2+ femur/pelvis injury

  9. Software forecasting as it is really done: A study of JPL software engineers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Griesel, Martha Ann; Hihn, Jairus M.; Bruno, Kristin J.; Fouser, Thomas J.; Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of the results to date of a Jet Propulsion Laboratory internally funded research task to study the costing process and parameters used by internally recognized software cost estimating experts. Protocol Analysis and Markov process modeling were used to capture software engineer's forecasting mental models. While there is significant variation between the mental models that were studied, it was nevertheless possible to identify a core set of cost forecasting activities, and it was also found that the mental models cluster around three forecasting techniques. Further partitioning of the mental models revealed clustering of activities, that is very suggestive of a forecasting lifecycle. The different forecasting methods identified were based on the use of multiple-decomposition steps or multiple forecasting steps. The multiple forecasting steps involved either forecasting software size or an additional effort forecast. Virtually no subject used risk reduction steps in combination. The results of the analysis include: the identification of a core set of well defined costing activities, a proposed software forecasting life cycle, and the identification of several basic software forecasting mental models. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the results for current individual and institutional practices.

  10. Flood Forecast Accuracy and Decision Support System Approach: the Venice Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canestrelli, A.; Di Donato, M.

    2016-02-01

    In the recent years numerical models for weather predictions have experienced continuous advances in technology. As a result, all the disciplines making use of weather forecasts have made significant steps forward. In the case of the Safeguard of Venice, a large effort has been put in order to improve the forecast of tidal levels. In this context, the Istituzione Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree (ICPSM) of the Venice Municipality has developed and tested many different forecast models, both of the statistical and deterministic type, and has shown to produce very accurate forecasts. For Venice, the maximum admissible forecast error should be (ideally) of the order of ten centimeters at 24 hours. The entity of the forecast error clearly affects the decisional process, which mainly consists of alerting the population, activating the movable barriers installed at the three tidal inlets and contacting the port authority. This process becomes more challenging whenever the weather predictions, and therefore the water level forecasts, suddenly change. These new forecasts have to be quickly transformed into operational tasks. Therefore, it is of the utter importance to set up scheduled alerts and emergency plans by means of easy-to-follow procedures. On this direction, Technital has set up a Decision Support System based on expert procedures that minimizes the human mistakes and, as a consequence, reduces the risk of flooding of the historical center. Moreover, the Decision Support System can communicate predefined alerts to all the interested subjects. The System uses the water levels forecasts produced by the ICPSM by taking into account the accuracy at different leading times. The Decision Support System has been successfully tested with 8 years of data, 6 of them in real time. Venice experience shows that the Decision Support System is an essential tool which assesses the risks associated with a particular event, provides clear operational procedures and minimizes

  11. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    PubMed

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. [Assessment and control of health risk caused by the radiological accident at the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant].

    PubMed

    Matsuda, Naoki; Morita, Naoko; Miura, Miwa

    2014-01-01

    The accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on March 11, 2011, released a large amount of radioactive materials resulting in the radioactive contamination of a wide area of eastern Japan. Residents of the Fukushima prefecture experienced various unavoidable damages and fear of radiation effects on their health. A reliable communication of accurate risk assessment for residents is required as a countermeasure aimed at the reconstruction of Fukushima. Here, the current status of individual dose estimation and the issues relating to the radiation risk perception are discussed.

  13. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occurmore » in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.« less

  14. [Severe parachuting accident. Analysis of 122 cases].

    PubMed

    Krauss, U; Mischkowsky, T

    1993-06-01

    Based on a population of 122 severely injured patients the causes of paragliding accidents and the patterns of injury are analyzed. A questionnaire is used to establish a sport-specific profile for the paragliding pilot. The lower limbs (55.7%) and the lower parts of the spine (45.9%) are the most frequently injured parts of the body. There is a high risk of multiple injuries after a single accident because of the tremendous axial power. The standard of equipment is good in over 90% of the cases. Insufficient training and failure to take account of geographical and meteorological conditions are the main determinants of accidents sustained by paragliders, most of whom are young. Nevertheless, 80% of our patients want to continue paragliding. Finally some advice is given on how to prevent paragliding accidents and injuries.

  15. A new scoring method for evaluating the performance of earthquake forecasts and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, J.

    2009-12-01

    This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance of earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. A fair scoring scheme should reward the success in a way that is compatible with the risk taken. Suppose that we have the reference model, usually the Poisson model for usual cases or Omori-Utsu formula for the case of forecasting aftershocks, which gives probability p0 that at least 1 event occurs in a given space-time-magnitude window. The forecaster, similar to a gambler, who starts with a certain number of reputation points, bets 1 reputation point on ``Yes'' or ``No'' according to his forecast, or bets nothing if he performs a NA-prediction. If the forecaster bets 1 reputation point of his reputations on ``Yes" and loses, the number of his reputation points is reduced by 1; if his forecasts is successful, he should be rewarded (1-p0)/p0 reputation points. The quantity (1-p0)/p0 is the return (reward/bet) ratio for bets on ``Yes''. In this way, if the reference model is correct, the expected return that he gains from this bet is 0. This rule also applies to probability forecasts. Suppose that p is the occurrence probability of an earthquake given by the forecaster. We can regard the forecaster as splitting 1 reputation point by betting p on ``Yes'' and 1-p on ``No''. In this way, the forecaster's expected pay-off based on the reference model is still 0. From the viewpoints of both the reference model and the forecaster, the rule for rewarding and punishment is fair. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points bet by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when

  16. Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:23690959

  17. Improving Flood Forecasting in International River Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hossain, Faisal; Katiyar, Nitin

    2006-01-01

    In flood-prone international river basins (IRBs), many riparian nations that are located close to a basin's outlet face a major problem in effectively forecasting flooding because they are unable to assimilate in situ rainfall data in real time across geopolitical boundaries. NASA's proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, which is expected to begin in 2010, will comprise high-resolution passive microwave (PM) sensors (at resolution ~3-6 hours, 10 × 10 square kilometers) that may provide new opportunities to improve flood forecasting in these river basins. Research is now needed to realize the potential of GPM. With adequate research in the coming years, it may be possible to identify the specific IRBs that would benefit cost-effectively from a preprogrammed satellite-based forecasting system in anticipation of GPM. Acceleration of such a research initiative is worthwhile because it could reduce the risk of the cancellation of GPM [see Zielinski, 2005].

  18. Effectiveness of electronic stability control on single-vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Hels, Tove; Bernhoft, Inger Marie

    2015-01-01

    This study aims at evaluating the effectiveness of electronic stability control (ESC) on single-vehicle injury accidents while controlling for a number of confounders influencing the accident risk. Using police-registered injury accidents from 2004 to 2011 in Denmark with cars manufactured in the period 1998 to 2011 and the principle of induced exposure, 2 measures of the effectiveness of ESC were calculated: The crude odds ratio and the adjusted odds ratio, the latter by means of logistic regression. The logistic regression controlled for a number of confounding factors, of which the following were significant. For the driver: Age, gender, driving experience, valid driving license, and seat belt use. For the vehicle: Year of registration, weight, and ESC. For the accident surroundings: Visibility, light, and location. Finally, for the road: Speed limit, surface, and section characteristics. The present study calculated the crude odds ratio for ESC-equipped cars of getting in a single-vehicle injury accident as 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.47) and the adjusted odds ratio as 0.69 (95% CI, 0.54-0.88). No difference was found in the effectiveness of ESC across the injury severity categories (slight, severe, and fatal). In line with previous results, this study concludes that ESC reduces the risk for single-vehicle injury accidents by 31% when controlling for various confounding factors related to the driver, the car, and the accident surroundings. Furthermore, it is concluded that it is important to control for human factors (at a minimum age and gender) in analyses where evaluations of this type are performed.

  19. Sports aviation accidents: fatality and aircraft specificity.

    PubMed

    de Voogt, Alexander J; van Doorn, Robert R A

    2010-11-01

    Sports aviation is a special category of general aviation characterized by diverse aircraft types and a predominantly recreational flight operation. A general comparison of aircraft accidents within sports aviation is missing, but should guide future research. A comparison of accidents in sports aviation was made using 2118 records from the National Transportation Safety Board for the period 1982-2007. In addition, the available denominator data from the Federal Aviation Administration were used to interpret the data. The highest number of accidents was found with gliders (N = 991), but the highest relative number of fatal accidents came from ultra-light (45%) and gyroplane operations (40%), which are homebuilt more often than other aircraft types. The most common cause of accident in sports aviation was in-flight planning and decision-making (N = 200, 9.4%). The most frequent occurrences were hard landings and undershoots, of which the numbers differ significantly from one aircraft type to the other. Homebuilt aircraft are at particular risk in sports aviation. Although denominator data remain problematic for motorized sports aviation, these aircraft show a high proportion of homebuilt aircraft and, more importantly, a higher relative number of fatal accidents.

  20. Natural turbidity variability and weather forecasts in risk management of anthropogenic sediment discharge near sensitive environments.

    PubMed

    Orpin, Alan R; Ridd, Peter V; Thomas, Séverine; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul; Oliver, Jamie

    2004-10-01

    Coastal development activities can cause local increases in turbidity and sedimentation. This study characterises the spatial and temporal variability of turbidity near an inshore fringing coral reef in the central Great Barrier Reef, under a wide range of natural conditions. Based on the observed natural variability, we outline a risk management scheme to minimise the impact of construction-related turbidity increases. Comparison of control and impact sites proved unusable for real-time management of turbidity risks. Instead, we suggest using one standard deviation from ambient conditions as a possible conservative upper limit of an acceptable projected increase in turbidity. In addition, the use of regional weather forecast as a proxy for natural turbidity is assessed. This approach is simple and cheap but also has limitations in very rough conditions, when an anthropogenic turbidity increase could prove fatal to corals that are already stressed under natural conditions.

  1. Fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and hybrid modelling of horizontal visibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuba, Zoltán; Bottyán, Zsolt

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting visibility is one of the greatest challenges in aviation meteorology. At the same time, high accuracy visibility forecasts can significantly reduce or make avoidable weather-related risk in aviation as well. To improve forecasting visibility, this research links fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and post-processed numerical weather prediction model outputs in hybrid forecast. Performance of analogue forecasting model was improved by the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then, linear combination of the mentioned outputs was applied to create ultra-short term hybrid visibility prediction which gradually shifts the focus from statistical to numerical products taking their advantages during the forecast period. It gives the opportunity to bring closer the numerical visibility forecast to the observations even it is wrong initially. Complete verification of categorical forecasts was carried out; results are available for persistence and terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) as well in order to compare. The average value of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of examined airports of analogue and hybrid forecasts shows very similar results even at the end of forecast period where the rate of analogue prediction in the final hybrid output is 0.1-0.2 only. However, in case of poor visibility (1000-2500 m), hybrid (0.65) and analogue forecasts (0.64) have similar average of HSS in the first 6 h of forecast period, and have better performance than persistence (0.60) or TAF (0.56). Important achievement that hybrid model takes into consideration physics and dynamics of the atmosphere due to the increasing part of the numerical weather prediction. In spite of this, its performance is similar to the most effective visibility forecasting methods and does not follow the poor verification results of clearly numerical outputs.

  2. Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

  3. Insomnia is associated with road accidents. Further evidence from a study on truck drivers.

    PubMed

    Garbarino, Sergio; Magnavita, Nicola; Guglielmi, Ottavia; Maestri, Michelangelo; Dini, Guglielmo; Bersi, Francesca Maria; Toletone, Alessandra; Chiorri, Carlo; Durando, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Sleep-related problems are known risk factors for road accidents. However, very few studies have investigated the role played by insomnia and its components, and no data are available for a population of occupational drivers at risk, such as the truck driver category. To measure the prevalence and impact of insomnia on motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) and near-miss accidents (NMAs) in 949 truck drivers. Cross-sectional survey. Insomnia affected 27.5% of the sample. Compared to other drivers, in the 3 years prior to the study, truck drivers with insomnia had reported a significantly higher number of MVAs; they had also reported a greater number of NMAs in the previous 6 months. After correction for the presence of obstructive sleep apnea, excessive daytime sleepiness, short sleep duration, and other concurrent diseases, insomniac truck drivers had an almost two-fold risk of driving accidents (OR: 1.82, CI 95%:1.33-2.49) and a more than three-fold increased risk of near-miss accidents (OR: 3.35, CI95%:2.06-5.45) compared to non-insomniac drivers. Insomnia emerged as an independent risk factor for MVAs and NMAs. We strongly advise screening commercial drivers for signs and symptoms of insomnia in order to improve health and safety on the road.

  4. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

    PubMed Central

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents’ risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP. PMID:26057539

  5. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

    PubMed

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents' risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP.

  6. Tsunami Forecasting and Monitoring in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Power, William; Gale, Nora

    2011-06-01

    New Zealand is exposed to tsunami threats from several sources that vary significantly in their potential impact and travel time. One route for reducing the risk from these tsunami sources is to provide advance warning based on forecasting and monitoring of events in progress. In this paper the National Tsunami Warning System framework, including the responsibilities of key organisations and the procedures that they follow in the event of a tsunami threatening New Zealand, are summarised. A method for forecasting threat-levels based on tsunami models is presented, similar in many respects to that developed for Australia by Allen and Greenslade (Nat Hazards 46:35-52, 2008), and a simple system for easy access to the threat-level forecasts using a clickable pdf file is presented. Once a tsunami enters or initiates within New Zealand waters, its progress and evolution can be monitored in real-time using a newly established network of online tsunami gauge sensors placed at strategic locations around the New Zealand coasts and offshore islands. Information from these gauges can be used to validate and revise forecasts, and assist in making the all-clear decision.

  7. Tenth Warren K. Sinclair keynote address-the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-02-01

    Just two years have passed since the Tokyo Electric Power Company-Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, a multidimensional disaster that combined to destroy the local infrastructure on which the safety system depended and gave a serious impact to the world. Countermeasures including evacuation, sheltering, and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese government. However, there is a clear need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection and also in the management of the radiation health risk during and even after the accident. To date there have been no acute radiation injuries. The radiation-related physical health consequences to the general public, including evacuees, are likely to be much lower than those arising from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, because the radiation fallout and the subsequent environmental contamination were much more limited. However, the social, psychological, and economic impacts of the Fukushima NPP accident are expected to be considerable. Currently, continued monitoring and characterization of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are vital for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the areas already radiocontaminated and returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is permitted; it is also important to perform a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. We are currently implementing the official plans of the Fukushima Health Management Survey, which includes a basic survey for the estimation of the external doses that were received during the first 4 mo after the accident and four more detailed surveys (thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and life-style survey, and survey of pregnant women and nursing mothers), with the aim to take care of the health of all of the residents of the Fukushima Prefecture for a long time

  8. Stochastic demographic forecasting.

    PubMed

    Lee, R D

    1992-11-01

    "This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented." excerpt

  9. Severe accidents in the energy sector: comparative perspective.

    PubMed

    Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Spiekerman, Gerard; Dones, Roberto

    2004-07-26

    This paper addresses one of the controversial issues in the current comparative studies of the environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues, though some social implications are also touched upon. The assessment concerns fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. The scope is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains but, whenever applicable, also includes exploration, extraction, transports, processing, storage and waste disposal. With the exception of the nuclear chain the focus of the work has been on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis used for this evaluation is a comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-related Severe Accident Database), established by the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic technique has also been employed and extended to cover the assessment of economic consequences of such accidents. The broader picture obtained by coverage of full energy chains leads on the world-wide basis to aggregated immediate fatality rates being much higher for the fossil chains than what one would expect if only power plants were considered. Generally, the immediate fatality rates are for all considered energy carriers significantly higher for the non-OECD countries than for OECD countries. In the case of hydro and nuclear the difference is in fact dramatic. The presentation of results is not limited to the aggregated values specific for each energy chain. Also frequency-consequence curves are provided. They reflect implicitly the ranking based on the aggregated values but include also such information as the observed or predicted chain-specific maximum extents of damages. This perspective on severe accidents may lead to different system

  10. Signature-forecasting and early outbreak detection system

    PubMed Central

    Naumova, Elena N.; MacNeill, Ian B.

    2008-01-01

    SUMMARY Daily disease monitoring via a public health surveillance system provides valuable information on population risks. Efficient statistical tools for early detection of rapid changes in the disease incidence are a must for modern surveillance. The need for statistical tools for early detection of outbreaks that are not based on historical information is apparent. A system is discussed for monitoring cases of infections with a view to early detection of outbreaks and to forecasting the extent of detected outbreaks. We propose a set of adaptive algorithms for early outbreak detection that does not rely on extensive historical recording. We also include knowledge of infection disease epidemiology into forecasts. To demonstrate this system we use data from the largest water-borne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis, which occurred in Milwaukee in 1993. Historical data are smoothed using a loess-type smoother. Upon receipt of a new datum, the smoothing is updated and estimates are made of the first two derivatives of the smooth curve, and these are used for near-term forecasting. Recent data and the near-term forecasts are used to compute a color-coded warning index, which quantify the level of concern. The algorithms for computing the warning index have been designed to balance Type I errors (false prediction of an epidemic) and Type II errors (failure to correctly predict an epidemic). If the warning index signals a sufficiently high probability of an epidemic, then a forecast of the possible size of the outbreak is made. This longer term forecast is made by fitting a ‘signature’ curve to the available data. The effectiveness of the forecast depends upon the extent to which the signature curve captures the shape of outbreaks of the infection under consideration. PMID:18716671

  11. A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

    2015-04-01

    a 24 hour window of high resolution/accuracy forecasts leveraging available data-model integration and CAPE prediction. The systems includes dissemination of WRF outputs over the World Wide Web. Components of the system (including WRF computational engine and results dissemination modules) are deployed in to computational cloud. This approach tends to increase system robustness and sustainability. The creation of such a system to share information between the public and private sectors and across territorial boundaries is an important step towards the next generation of governance for climate risk and extreme weather offshore. The system benefits offshore operators by reducing downtime related to accidents and incidents; eliminate unnecessary hiring costs related to waiting on weather; and improve the efficiency and planning of transport and logistics by providing a rolling weather risk advisory.

  12. How do user experiences with different transport modes affect the risk of traffic accidents? From the viewpoint of licence possession status.

    PubMed

    Nakai, Hiroshi; Usui, Shinnosuke

    2017-02-01

    Road accidents between different modes of transport-such as between automobiles and pedestrians, automobiles and bicycles, or automobiles and motorcycles-are frequent. In such cases, it is important to consider the other side's perspective. This involves the ability to correctly judge, for every given situation, how other people on the road perceive their surroundings and what they intend to do next. In this paper, we conduct two types of studies assuming that this kind of ability to consider perspectives is higher when the person is licenced to drive the mode of transport used by the other party. For Study 1, we analysed accidents involving senior citizens between the ages of 65 and 74 years, who collided with automobiles as pedestrians or cyclists (1656 and 3192 cases respectively), in terms of the accident category and type of road at the accident spot. The results indicate that possession or non-possession of a licence was irrelevant for accidents involving cyclists, but for accidents with pedestrians, senior citizens who did not possess a licence are likely to be involved in a greater number of accidents in places that require interaction with automobiles, such as while crossing at crosswalks or at intersections. For Study 2, we reviewed 875 ordinary first-class licence practical test examinees, categorised them according to their licence possession status (motorcycle licence, moped licence, or no licence), and made a category-wise comparison of the test instructor's assessment of their ability to make a left turn. The results showed that those who had a motorcycle or moped licence tended to make a left turn more safely. Thus, the results indicate that experience with different modes of transport is likely to reduce the risk of accidents. These findings may be used to popularise educational interventions encouraging users of various transport modes to consider the perspective of others (i.e. via perspective-taking). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  13. Indonesian Sea Accident Analysis (Case Study From 2003 – 2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arya Dewanto, Y.; Faturachman, D.

    2018-03-01

    There are so many accidents in sea transportation in Indonesia. Most of the accidents happen because of low concern aspects of the safety and security of the crew. In sailing, a man as transport users to interact with the ship and the surrounding environment (including other ships, cruise lines, ports, and the situation of local conditions). These interactions are sometimes very complex and related to various aspects of. Aware of the multiplicity of aspects related to the third of these factors, seeking the safety of cruise through a reduction in the number of accidents and the risk of death and serious injuries due to accidents and goods transported is certainly not enough attempted through mono-sector approach, but rather takes a multi-sector approach to the efforts. In this paper, we described the Indonesian Sea Transportation accident analysis for eleven years divided into four items: total of ship accident type, ship accident factor, total of casualties, region of ship accidents. All data founded from Marine Court (Mahkamah Pelayaran). From that 4 items we can find Indonesia Sea Accident Analysis from 2003-2013.

  14. 10-year evaluation of train accidents.

    PubMed

    Akkaş, Meltem; Ay, Didem; Metin Aksu, Nalan; Günalp, Müge

    2011-09-01

    Although less frequent than automobile accidents, train accidents have a major impact on victims' lives. Records of patients older than 16 years of age admitted to the Adult Emergency Department of Hacettepe University Medical Center due to train accidents were retrospectively evaluated. 44 patients (30 males, 14 females) with a mean age of 31.8±11.4 years were included in the study. The majority of the accidents occurred during commuting hours. 37 patients were discharged, 22 of them from the emergency department. The mortality rate was 7/44 (16%). Overall mean Revised Trauma Score (RTS) was 10.5 (3 in deaths and 11.9 in survivors). In 5 patients, the cause of death was pelvic trauma leading to major vascular injury and lower limb amputation. In 1 patient, thorax and abdomen trauma and in 1 patient head injury were the causes of mortality. Primary risk factors for mortality were alcohol intoxication (100%), cardiopulmonary resuscitation on admittance (100%), recurrent suicide attempt (75%), presence of psychiatric illness (60%), and low RTS. In this study, most train accidents causing minor injuries were due to falling from the train prior to acceleration. Nevertheless, train accidents led to a mortality rate of 16% and morbidity rate of 37%. These findings draw attention to the importance of developing preventive strategies.

  15. Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

    PubMed

    Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

    1990-10-01

    A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

  16. Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul

    1997-01-01

    Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

  17. Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning

    DOE PAGES

    Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Larsen, Peter H.; Sanstad, Alan H.; ...

    2018-05-23

    Forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand over time horizons of one or two decades are a key element in electric utilities’ meeting their core objective and obligation to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supplies for their customers while complying with a range of energy and environmental regulations and policies. These forecasts are an important input to integrated resource planning (IRP) processes involving utilities, regulators, and other stake-holders. Despite their importance, however, there has been little analysis of long term utility load forecasting accuracy. We conduct a retrospective analysis of long term load forecasts on twelve Western U. S. electricmore » utilities in the mid-2000s to find that most overestimated both energy consumption and peak demand growth. A key reason for this was the use of assumptions that led to an overestimation of economic growth. We find that the complexity of forecast methods and the accuracy of these forecasts are mildly correlated. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis of load growth and its implications for capacity expansion were not well integrated with subsequent implementation. As a result, we review changes in the utilities load forecasting methods over the subsequent decade, and discuss the policy implications of long term load forecast inaccuracy and its underlying causes.« less

  18. Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Larsen, Peter H.; Sanstad, Alan H.

    Forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand over time horizons of one or two decades are a key element in electric utilities’ meeting their core objective and obligation to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supplies for their customers while complying with a range of energy and environmental regulations and policies. These forecasts are an important input to integrated resource planning (IRP) processes involving utilities, regulators, and other stake-holders. Despite their importance, however, there has been little analysis of long term utility load forecasting accuracy. We conduct a retrospective analysis of long term load forecasts on twelve Western U. S. electricmore » utilities in the mid-2000s to find that most overestimated both energy consumption and peak demand growth. A key reason for this was the use of assumptions that led to an overestimation of economic growth. We find that the complexity of forecast methods and the accuracy of these forecasts are mildly correlated. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis of load growth and its implications for capacity expansion were not well integrated with subsequent implementation. As a result, we review changes in the utilities load forecasting methods over the subsequent decade, and discuss the policy implications of long term load forecast inaccuracy and its underlying causes.« less

  19. Postoperative cerebrovascular accidents in general surgery.

    PubMed

    Larsen, S F; Zaric, D; Boysen, G

    1988-11-01

    In a prospective study of postoperative complications, strokes occurred in 6 out of 2463 patients (0.2%) who underwent non-cardiac, non-carotid artery surgery. The patients who experienced cerebrovascular accidents, including three cases of transient ischemic attack, were significantly older than the rest of the group (mean age 79 years versus 65 years) and had manifestations of atherosclerosis in at least one organ preoperatively. Significant predictors of risk for postoperative cerebrovascular accidents were previous cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and hypertension. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred late in the postoperative period, 5-26 days after surgery, and were not directly related to surgery and anesthesia. They were more frequent after acute than after elective operations. Precipitating factors for some of the stroke incidents were rapid atrial fibrillation and postoperative dehydration.

  20. Improved regional water management utilizing climate forecasts: An interbasin transfer model with a risk management framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Weihua; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Ranjithan, R. S.; Brill, E. D.

    2014-08-01

    Regional water supply systems undergo surplus and deficit conditions due to differences in inflow characteristics as well as due to their seasonal demand patterns. This study proposes a framework for regional water management by proposing an interbasin transfer (IBT) model that uses climate-information-based inflow forecast for minimizing the deviations from the end-of-season target storage across the participating pools. Using the ensemble streamflow forecast, the IBT water allocation model was applied for two reservoir systems in the North Carolina Triangle Area. Results show that interbasin transfers initiated by the ensemble streamflow forecast could potentially improve the overall water supply reliability as the demand continues to grow in the Triangle Area. To further understand the utility of climate forecasts in facilitating IBT under different spatial correlation structures between inflows and between the initial storages of the two systems, a synthetic experiment was designed to evaluate the framework under inflow forecast having different skills. Findings from the synthetic study can be summarized as follows: (a) inflow forecasts combined with the proposed IBT optimization model provide improved allocation in comparison to the allocations obtained under the no-transfer scenario as well as under transfers obtained with climatology; (b) spatial correlations between inflows and between initial storages among participating reservoirs could also influence the potential benefits that could be achieved through IBT; (c) IBT is particularly beneficial for systems that experience low correlations between inflows or between initial storages or on both attributes of the regional water supply system. Thus, if both infrastructure and permitting structures exist for promoting interbasin transfers, season-ahead inflow forecasts could provide added benefits in forecasting surplus/deficit conditions among the participating pools in the regional water supply system.

  1. Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

  2. Precipitation and floodiness: forecasts of flood hazard at the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, Liz; Day, Jonny; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    In 2008, a seasonal forecast of an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall in West Africa led the Red Cross to take early humanitarian action (such as prepositioning of relief items) on the basis that this forecast implied heightened flood risk. However, there are a number of factors that lead to non-linearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard, so in this presentation we use a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim/Land precipitation reanalysis (1980-2010) to quantify this non-linearity. Using these data, we introduce the concept of floodiness to measure the incidence of floods over a large area, and quantify the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge and floodiness anomalies. Our analysis shows that floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, demonstrating the problem of using seasonal precipitation forecasts as a proxy for forecasting flood hazard. This analysis demonstrates the value of developing hydrometeorological forecasts of floodiness for decision-makers. As a result, we are now working with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Joint Research Centre, as partners of the operational Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to implement floodiness forecasts in real-time.

  3. Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-06-01

    Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

  4. Load Forecasting in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Larsen, Peter H.; Sanstad, Alan H

    Integrated resource planning (IRP) is a process used by many vertically-integrated U.S. electric utilities to determine least-cost/risk supply and demand-side resources that meet government policy objectives and future obligations to customers and, in many cases, shareholders. Forecasts of energy and peak demand are a critical component of the IRP process. There have been few, if any, quantitative studies of IRP long-run (planning horizons of two decades) load forecast performance and its relationship to resource planning and actual procurement decisions. In this paper, we evaluate load forecasting methods, assumptions, and outcomes for 12 Western U.S. utilities by examining and comparing plansmore » filed in the early 2000s against recent plans, up to year 2014. We find a convergence in the methods and data sources used. We also find that forecasts in more recent IRPs generally took account of new information, but that there continued to be a systematic over-estimation of load growth rates during the period studied. We compare planned and procured resource expansion against customer load and year-to-year load growth rates, but do not find a direct relationship. Load sensitivities performed in resource plans do not appear to be related to later procurement strategies even in the presence of large forecast errors. These findings suggest that resource procurement decisions may be driven by other factors than customer load growth. Our results have important implications for the integrated resource planning process, namely that load forecast accuracy may not be as important for resource procurement as is generally believed, that load forecast sensitivities could be used to improve the procurement process, and that management of load uncertainty should be prioritized over more complex forecasting techniques.« less

  5. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be

  6. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov Websites

    with smartphones and other mobile platforms new Marine Point Forecasts are a forecast for a specific maps providing zone/point marine forecasts Mobile, AL Eureka, CA San Francisco, CA Los Angeles, CA San

  7. Accident epidemiology and the U.S. chemical industry: accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info.

    PubMed

    Kleindorfer, Paul R; Belke, James C; Elliott, Michael R; Lee, Kiwan; Lowe, Robert A; Feldman, Harold I

    2003-10-01

    This article reports on the data collected on one of the most ambitious government-sponsored environmental data acquisition projects of all time, the Risk Management Plan (RMP) data collected under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This RMP Rule 112(r) was triggered by the Bhopal accident in 1984 and led to the requirement that each qualifying facility develop and file with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency a Risk Management Plan (RMP) as well as accident history data for the five-year period preceding the filing of the RMP. These data were collected in 1999-2001 on more than 15,000 facilities in the United States that store or use listed toxic or flammable chemicals believed to be a hazard to the environment or to human health of facility employees or off-site residents of host communities. The resulting database, RMP*Info, has become a key resource for regulators and researchers concerned with the frequency and severity of accidents, and the underlying facility-specific factors that are statistically associated with accident and injury rates. This article analyzes which facilities actually filed under the Rule and presents results on accident frequencies and severities available from the RMP*Info database. This article also presents summaries of related results from RMP*Info on Offsite Consequence Analysis (OCA), an analytical estimate of the potential consequences of hypothetical worst-case and alternative accidental releases on the public and environment around the facility. The OCA data have become a key input in the evaluation of site security assessment and mitigation policies for both government planners as well as facility managers and their insurers. Following the survey of the RMP*Info data, we discuss the rich set of policy decisions that may be informed by research based on these data.

  8. Metrics for the Evaluation the Utility of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumo, T. M.; Stockwell, W. R.

    2013-12-01

    Global warming is expected to lead to higher levels of air pollution and therefore the forecasting of both long-term and daily air quality is an important component for the assessment of the costs of climate change and its impact on human health. Some of the risks associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Pollution Index is greater than 100), include hospital visits and mortality. Accurate air quality forecasting has the potential to allow sensitive groups to take appropriate precautions. This research builds metrics for evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts. Our analysis of air quality models focuses on the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region over the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our evaluation of the performance of air quality forecasts include those forecasts of ozone and particulate matter and data available from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW. We also examined observational ozone and particulate matter data available from Clean Air Partners. Overall the forecast models perform well for our region and time interval.

  9. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  10. Radiation Doses and Associated Risk From the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Tetsuo

    2017-03-01

    The magnitude of dose due to the Fukushima Daiichi Accident was estimated by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2013 report published in April 2014. Following this, the UNSCEAR white paper, which comprises a digest of new information for the 2013 Fukushima report, was published in October 2015. Another comprehensive report on radiation dose due to the accident is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on the Fukushima Daiichi Accident published in August 2015. Although the UNSCEAR and IAEA publications well summarize doses received by residents, they review only literature published before the end of December 2014 and the end of March 2015, respectively. However, some studies on dose estimation have been published since then. In addition, the UNSCEAR 2013 report states it was likely that some overestimation had been introduced generally by the methodology used by the Committee. For example, effects of decontamination were not considered in the lifetime external dose estimated. Decontamination is in progress for most living areas in Fukushima Prefecture, which could reduce long-term external dose to residents. This article mainly reviews recent English language articles that may add new information to the UNSCEAR and IAEA publications. Generally, recent articles suggest lower doses than those presented by the UNSCEAR 2013 report.

  11. Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Coelho, Caio A S; Bailey, Trevor C; Coelho, Giovanini Evelim; Graham, Richard; Jupp, Tim; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-07-01

    With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnol

  12. Medium range forecasting of Hurricane Harvey flash flooding using ECMWF and social vulnerability data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pillosu, F. M.; Jurlina, T.; Baugh, C.; Tsonevsky, I.; Hewson, T.; Prates, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Prudhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    During hurricane Harvey the greater east Texas area was affected by extensive flash flooding. Their localised nature meant they were too small for conventional large scale flood forecasting systems to capture. We are testing the use of two real time forecast products from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in combination with local vulnerability information to provide flash flood forecasting tools at the medium range (up to 7 days ahead). Meteorological forecasts are the total precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI), a measure of how the ensemble forecast probability distribution differs from the model-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time; and the shift of tails (SOT) which complements the EFI by quantifying how extreme an event could potentially be. Both products give the likelihood of flash flood generating precipitation. For hurricane Harvey, 3-day EFI and SOT products for the period 26th - 29th August 2017 were used, generated from the twice daily, 18 km, 51 ensemble member ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. After regridding to 1 km resolution the forecasts were combined with vulnerable area data to produce a flash flood hazard risk area. The vulnerability data were floodplains (EU Joint Research Centre), road networks (Texas Department of Transport) and urban areas (Census Bureau geographic database), together reflecting the susceptibility to flash floods from the landscape. The flash flood hazard risk area forecasts were verified using a traditional approach against observed National Weather Service flash flood reports, a total of 153 reported flash floods have been detected in that period. Forecasts performed best for SOT = 5 (hit ratio = 65%, false alarm ratio = 44%) and EFI = 0.7 (hit ratio = 74%, false alarm ratio = 45%) at 72 h lead time. By including the vulnerable areas data, our verification results improved by 5-15%, demonstrating the value of vulnerability information within

  13. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Hyojoon; Park, Misun; Jeong, Haesun; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents. PMID:24619120

  14. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhegang Ma

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

  15. Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

    PubMed

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

  16. Reasons and remedies of inland passenger vessels accidents in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Cdr Kaosar; Islam, Muhammad Rabiul

    2017-12-01

    The waterways are very important means of communication in Bangladesh. Every year over 95 million passengers are carried through this route. But, this important mode of transport is ridden with tragic disasters every year, incurring a heavy toll of human lives. In last twenty years (1994 to 2014), around 5,500 people have died and 1,500 gone missing in 658 launch disasters. The inland routes of Barisal, Bhola, Chandpur and Patuakhali and their connected water ways to Dhaka and Chittagong are found to be more accident prone. Lack of Awareness, boundless operation of unfit vessels, overloading of passengers, recruitment of unskilled crews, poor capacity of relevant bodies and low standard maintenance of Inland Water Transport (IWT) channels, poor weather forecasting, profit centered attitude of vessel owners and corruption are initiating these deadly accidents. Despite of a number of initiatives by the government, concerned departments and foreign consultants, the safety aspect of the inland passenger vessels still remains in dark. Combined effort of Department of Shipping, BIWTA, and the attitude of vessels owners as well as passengers are very essential in this respect.

  17. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  18. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  19. Atrial fibrillation, CHA2DS2-VASc score, antithrombotics and risk of traffic accidents: A population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Lai, Hui-Chin; Chien, Wu-Chien; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Lee, Wen-Lieng; Wang, Kuo-Yang; Wu, Tsu-Juey; Liu, Chia-Ning; Liu, Tsun-Jui

    2015-10-15

    Traffic accidents account for a substantial proportion of premature disabilities and deaths. Whether atrial fibrillation (AF) provokes while antithrombotics prevent from such events remains un-investigated. All patients ≥40years with newly diagnosed AF in 2005 were scrutinized from the "Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005" (1 million beneficiaries) of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Institute as the AF group. Four-fold number of age-, gender-, and comorbidity-matched patients but without AF served as the Non-AF controls. Patients were followed till occurrence of hospitalization-requiring traffic injury, death, withdrawal from insurance, or the end of 2010. Cumulative incidence of traffic accidents was compared between groups, and predictors and preventive role of antithrombotics for these accidents were identified by Cox regression analysis. Within a mean follow-up of 4.3years, traffic injury occurred significantly more often in patients with AF (N=1724) than those without it (N=6896) (5.4 vs. 4.9 per 1000 person-years, log-rank p=0.012, HR 1.110, 95% CI 1.013-1.572). Cox models identified age ≧65years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, stroke, liver cirrhosis and CHADS2VASC score≧1 as risk factors for traffic injury in AF patients, whereas oral anticoagulants (HR 0.576, 95% CI 0.285-0.791, p=0.002) used in patients with CHADS2VASC score ≧1 but not antiplatelet therapy (p=0.197) as negative predictors. Patients with AF are more vulnerable to traffic accidents especially when with higher CHADS2VASC scores and other comorbidities. This tendency to traffic accidents, however, could be ameliorated by oral anticoagulation in specialized cases but not by antiplatelet therapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Forecast Inaccuracies in Power Plant Projects From Project Managers' Perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanabria, Orlando

    Guided by organizational theory, this phenomenological study explored the factors affecting forecast preparation and inaccuracies during the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the United States. Forecast inaccuracies can create financial stress and uncertain profits during the project construction phase. A combination of purposeful and snowball sampling supported the selection of participants. Twenty project managers with over 15 years of experience in power generation and project experience across the United States were interviewed within a 2-month period. From the inductive codification and descriptive analysis, 5 themes emerged: (a) project monitoring, (b) cost control, (c) management review frequency, (d) factors to achieve a precise forecast, and (e) factors causing forecast inaccuracies. The findings of the study showed the factors necessary to achieve a precise forecast includes a detailed project schedule, accurate labor cost estimates, monthly project reviews and risk assessment, and proper utilization of accounting systems to monitor costs. The primary factors reported as causing forecast inaccuracies were cost overruns by subcontractors, scope gaps, labor cost and availability of labor, and equipment and material cost. Results of this study could improve planning accuracy and the effective use of resources during construction of power plants. The study results could contribute to social change by providing a framework to project managers to lessen forecast inaccuracies, and promote construction of power plants that will generate employment opportunities and economic development.

  1. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  2. Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

  3. New Data from EPA's Exposure Forecasting (ExpoCast) Project (ISES meeting)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The health risks posed by the chemicals in our environment depends on both chemical hazard and exposure. However, relatively few chemicals have estimates of exposure intake, limiting risk estimations for thousands of chemicals. The U.S. EPA Exposure Forecasting (ExpoCast) projec...

  4. Short-Term Medical Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Lessons for the Future

    PubMed Central

    Gale, Robert Peter

    1988-01-01

    The author of this article discusses the world's most serious nuclear accident to date: the Chernobyl nuclear accident of April 1986. His major focus is on the short-term medical consequences of the accident, including reduction of exposure to persons at risk, evaluation of persons potentially affected, dosimetry, and specific medical interventions. PMID:21253129

  5. [Cerebrovascular accidents: risk factors, clinical course and prognosis in the Cardiology "B" Service of the du Point G University Hospital Center, Bamako].

    PubMed

    Coulibaly, S; Diakité, S; Diall, I B; Menta, I; Sacko, A K; Diallo, B

    2010-01-01

    Our study of series, futurology, descriptive and analytical proceeded in the service of Cardiology B of the CHU of the Point G of the 1(er) July at 31 Décember 2007 and related to 57 in-patients. It aimed to release the factors of risks, to evaluate under treatment the evolution and to determine the prognostic elements of the cerebral vascular accidents. All the patients hospitalized in the service of Cardiology G for the period of study for cerebral vascular accident documented by a cerebral TDM was included in the series. The cerebral vascular accidents represented more of the quarter (25,22 %) of the admissions. The sample counted 29 women (50,9 %) and 28 men (49,1 %) with a sex ratio of 1,03 in favour of the women. The average age was 61,17 years ± 13,71 there. Arterial hypertension (59,6 %) was the first factor of risk and in the series the ischaemic AVC constituted approximately three quarters (70,2 %) of the organic types. It was especially male and the rather female hemorrhagic lesion. The hemorrhagic AVC was noted before 30 years and the ischaemic AVC beyond. The complications were with female prevalence and identical lethality in the two sexes. The hospital death rate in the study was considerable (10,5 %). The found prognostic elements did not have statistical significance.

  6. [Nursing Care Sistematization: accident by Loxosceles gaucho].

    PubMed

    Kamimura, Helayne Mika; Paiva, Bianca Sakamoto Ribeiro; Ayres, Jairo Aparecido

    2009-01-01

    Experience report carried out at a university hospital involving a patient victimized by an accident with a spider of the Loxosceles gaucho genus. This type of accident can be classified as mild, moderate and severe, depending on the period of time elapsed between the occurrence of the accident and the moment of care provision. We aimed at applying nursing care systematization in a comprehensive and humanized manner. The following nursing diagnoses were established: acute pain, damaged skin integrity, risks for infection, constipation and low self-esteem. The therapeutic relationship favored student/patient interactions and enabled the recognition of the needs that deserved nursing interventions. The nursing process was a valuable instrument and provided important elements for the patient's daily development and planning adjustment by prioritizing care quality.

  7. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  8. Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive

  9. Forecast Verification: Identification of small changes in weather forecasting skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weatherhead, E. C.; Jensen, T. L.

    2017-12-01

    Global and regonal weather forecasts have improved over the past seven decades most often because of small, incrmental improvements. The identificaiton and verification of forecast improvement due to proposed small changes in forecasting can be expensive and, if not carried out efficiently, can slow progress in forecasting development. This presentation will look at the skill of commonly used verification techniques and show how the ability to detect improvements can depend on the magnitude of the improvement, the number of runs used to test the improvement, the location on the Earth and the statistical techniques used. For continuous variables, such as temperture, wind and humidity, the skill of a forecast can be directly compared using a pair-wise statistical test that accommodates the natural autocorrelation and magnitude of variability. For discrete variables, such as tornado outbreaks, or icing events, the challenges is to reduce the false alarm rate while improving the rate of correctly identifying th discrete event. For both continuus and discrete verification results, proper statistical approaches can reduce the number of runs needed to identify a small improvement in forecasting skill. Verification within the Next Generation Global Prediction System is an important component to the many small decisions needed to make stat-of-the-art improvements to weather forecasting capabilities. The comparison of multiple skill scores with often conflicting results requires not only appropriate testing, but also scientific judgment to assure that the choices are appropriate not only for improvements in today's forecasting capabilities, but allow improvements that will come in the future.

  10. Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

  11. Vulnerability assessment of chemical industry facilities in South Korea based on the chemical accident history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heo, S.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.; Kim, M. I.

    2016-12-01

    The use of chemical compounds are keep increasing because of their use in manufacturing industry. Chemical accident is growing as the consequence of the chemical use increment. Devastating damages from chemical accidents are far enough to aware people's cautious about the risk of the chemical accident. In South Korea, Gumi Hydrofluoric acid leaking accident triggered the importance of risk management and emphasized the preventing the accident over the damage reducing process after the accident occurs. Gumi accident encouraged the government data base construction relate to the chemical accident. As the result of this effort Chemical Safety-Clearing-house (CSC) have started to record the chemical accident information and damages according to the Harmful Chemical Substance Control Act (HCSC). CSC provide details information about the chemical accidents from 2002 to present. The detail informations are including title of company, address, business type, accident dates, accident types, accident chemical compounds, human damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, human damage outside of the chemical industry facilities, financial damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, and financial damages outside of the chemical industry facilities, environmental damages and response to the chemical accident. Collected the chemical accident history of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and provide the spatial information to the each accident records based on their address. With the spatial information, compute the data on ArcGIS for the spatial-temporal analysis. The spatial-temporal information of chemical accident is organized by the chemical accident types, damages, and damages on environment and conduct the spatial proximity with local community and environmental receptors. Find the chemical accident vulnerable area of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and add the vulnerable area of total period to examine the historically vulnerable area from the chemical accident in

  12. Sea level forecasts for Pacific Islands based on Satellite Altimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, H.; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Widlansky, M. J.; Marra, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal flooding at tropical Pacific Islands often occurs when positive sea level anomalies coincide with high tides. To help mitigate this risk, a forecast tool for daily-averaged sea level anomalies is developed that can be added to predicted tides at tropical Pacific Island sites. The forecast takes advantage of the observed westward propagation that sea level anomalies exhibit over a range of time scales. The daily near-real time altimetry gridded data from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) is used to specify upstream sea level at each site, with lead times computed based on mode-one baroclinic Rossby wave speeds. To validate the forecast, hindcasts are compared to tide gauge and nearby AVISO gridded time series. The forecast skills exceed persistence at most stations out to a month or more lead time. The skill is highest at stations where eddy variability is relatively weak. The impacts on the forecasts due to varying propagation speed, decay time, and smoothing of the AVISO data are examined. In addition, the inclusion of forecast winds in a forced wave equation is compared to the freely propagating results. Case studies are presented for seasonally high tide events throughout the Pacific Island region.

  13. [The meaning of accidents with biological material to nursing professionals].

    PubMed

    Magagnini, Maristela Aparecida Magri; Rocha, Suelen Alves; Ayres, Jairo Aparecido

    2011-06-01

    The aim of this study is to understand what meaning work accidents with exposure to biological material has to nurses. This is an exploratory study with a qualitative approach, and it used Bardin's content analysis. 87 accidents with biological material occurred in the period between 2001 and 2006; among them, eight were seropositive for Hepatitis B and C and HIV/AIDS. An interview with guiding questions was used to collect data. When inquiring these professionals about the meaning of these accidents, four categories emerged: risk situation, danger perception, fatality, and feelings. Although it is not a strategy of clarification, it is a fact that work organization and educative actions have considerable impact in reducing this type of accident, also reducing damage to the life of nurses involved in these accidents.

  14. Risk perception in consumer product use.

    PubMed

    Weegels, M F; Kanis, H

    2000-05-01

    In the literature, at least two distinct connotations of risk can be found: so called objective risk, defined as the ratio of a particular number of accidents and a measure of exposure, and subjective risk, defined as the perception and awareness of risks by the person(s) involved. This article explores the significance of risk perception and awareness in understanding and clarifying how and why accidents involving consumer products occur. Based on empirical evidence from video-recorded reconstructions of accidents with consumer products, the risk perception and awareness of users in relation to featural and functional product characteristics, and their influence on actual product use culminating in an accident, is addressed. In contrast with what is usually assumed in the literature, the findings show that the majority of the subjects had no idea that they were running any risk of injuring themselves while they operated the product. In several accidents, the product either offered functionalities not anticipated in the design or did not adequately reflect its condition. The implications of the findings for design practice as well as for risk research are discussed.

  15. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  17. Operational monitoring and forecasting of bathing water quality through exploiting satellite Earth observation and models: The AlgaRisk demonstration service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shutler, J. D.; Warren, M. A.; Miller, P. I.; Barciela, R.; Mahdon, R.; Land, P. E.; Edwards, K.; Wither, A.; Jonas, P.; Murdoch, N.; Roast, S. D.; Clements, O.; Kurekin, A.

    2015-04-01

    Coastal zones and shelf-seas are important for tourism, commercial fishing and aquaculture. As a result the importance of good water quality within these regions to support life is recognised worldwide and a number of international directives for monitoring them now exist. This paper describes the AlgaRisk water quality monitoring demonstration service that was developed and operated for the UK Environment Agency in response to the microbiological monitoring needs within the revised European Union Bathing Waters Directive. The AlgaRisk approach used satellite Earth observation to provide a near-real time monitoring of microbiological water quality and a series of nested operational models (atmospheric and hydrodynamic-ecosystem) provided a forecast capability. For the period of the demonstration service (2008-2013) all monitoring and forecast datasets were processed in near-real time on a daily basis and disseminated through a dedicated web portal, with extracted data automatically emailed to agency staff. Near-real time data processing was achieved using a series of supercomputers and an Open Grid approach. The novel web portal and java-based viewer enabled users to visualise and interrogate current and historical data. The system description, the algorithms employed and example results focussing on a case study of an incidence of the harmful algal bloom Karenia mikimotoi are presented. Recommendations and the potential exploitation of web services for future water quality monitoring services are discussed.

  18. Alcohol abuse and involvement in traffic accidents in the Brazilian population, 2013.

    PubMed

    Damacena, Giseli Nogueira; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Boccolini, Cristiano Siqueira; Souza, Paulo Roberto Borges de; Almeida, Wanessa da Silva de; Ribeiro, Lucas Sisinno; Szwarcwald, Célia Landmann

    2016-12-01

    Abstract This article aims to analyze alcohol abuse and frequent consumption according to sociodemographic characteristics and investigate the risk of greater involvement in traffic accidents, using data from the National Health Survey (PNS), 2013, Brazil. Events investigated were alcohol abuse and frequent consumption and if the individual was involved in a traffic accident and sustained an injury in the last 12 months. We investigated both events according to sociodemographic characteristics and assessed the association among them through multivariate logistic regression. The prevalence of alcohol abuse and frequent consumption was 6.1% for the population aged 18 years and over, 8.9% among men and 3.6% among women. The prevalence of involvement in traffic accidents was 3.1% in the general population and 6.1% among those who reported alcohol abuse. After controlling for sociodemographic factors, alcohol abuse and frequent consumption was significantly associated with traffic accidents. Considering a higher risk of involvement in traffic accidents among individuals who reported alcohol abuse and frequent consumption, monitoring blood alcohol concentration of drivers becomes a strategic possibility of intervention.

  19. What are the factors that contribute to road accidents? An assessment of law enforcement views, ordinary drivers' opinions, and road accident records.

    PubMed

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Regev, Shirley; Moutari, Salissou; Feeney, Aidan

    2018-06-01

    What are the main contributing factors to road accidents? Factors such as inexperience, lack of skill, and risk-taking behaviors have been associated with the collisions of young drivers. In contrast, visual, cognitive, and mobility impairment have been associated with the collisions of older drivers. We investigated the main causes of road accidents by drawing on multiple sources: expert views of police officers, lay views of the driving public, and official road accident records. In Studies 1 and 2, police officers and the public were asked about the typical causes of road traffic collisions using hypothetical accident scenarios. In Study 3, we investigated whether the views of police officers and the public about accident causation influence their recall accuracy for factors reported to contribute to hypothetical road accidents. The results show that both expert views of police officers and lay views of the driving public closely approximated the typical factors associated with the collisions of young and older drivers, as determined from official accident records. The results also reveal potential underreporting of factors in existing accident records, identifying possible inadequacies in law enforcement practices for investigating driver distraction, drug and alcohol impairment, and uncorrected or defective eyesight. Our investigation also highlights a need for accident report forms to be continuously reviewed and updated to ensure that contributing factor lists reflect the full range of factors that contribute to road accidents. Finally, the views held by police officers and the public on accident causation influenced their memory recall of factors involved in hypothetical scenarios. These findings indicate that delay in completing accident report forms should be minimised, possibly by use of mobile reporting devices at the accident scene. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.; Goodman, S. J.; Cecil, D. J.

    2008-01-01

    Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.