Sample records for accident risks methodology

  1. ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

    PubMed

    Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

    2006-03-31

    In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

  2. Marine ecological risk assessment methods for radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Ye, Sufen; Zhang, Luoping; Feng, Huan

    2017-12-01

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool that can be used to analyze potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts. With the rapid development of nuclear power plants in coastal areas around the world, the establishment of approaches and methodologies for marine ERA with a focus on radiation accidents is an urgent requirement for marine environmental management. In this study, the approaches and methodologies for ERA pertaining to marine radiation accidents (MRA) are discussed and summarized with applications in case studies, such as the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, and a hypothetical accident in Daya Bay, China. The concepts of ERA and Risk Degree of ERA on MRA are defined for the first time to optimize the ERA system. The results of case studies show that the ERA approach and methodology for MRA are scientifically sound and effective in both the early and late stage of MRAs along with classic ERA Approach and the ERICA Integrated Approach. The results can be useful in the decision-making processes and the risk management at the beginning of accident as well as the ecological restoration after the accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

    PubMed

    Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

  4. 'Worst case' methodology for the initial assessment of societal risk from proposed major accident installations.

    PubMed

    Carter, D A; Hirst, I L

    2000-01-07

    This paper considers the application of one of the weighted risk indicators used by the Major Hazards Assessment Unit (MHAU) of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in formulating advice to local planning authorities on the siting of new major accident hazard installations. In such cases the primary consideration is to ensure that the proposed installation would not be incompatible with existing developments in the vicinity, as identified by the categorisation of the existing developments and the estimation of individual risk values at those developments. In addition a simple methodology, described here, based on MHAU's "Risk Integral" and a single "worst case" even analysis, is used to enable the societal risk aspects of the hazardous installation to be considered at an early stage of the proposal, and to determine the degree of analysis that will be necessary to enable HSE to give appropriate advice.

  5. Hazmat transport: a methodological framework for the risk analysis of marshalling yards.

    PubMed

    Cozzani, Valerio; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Zanelli, Severino

    2007-08-17

    A methodological framework was outlined for the comprehensive risk assessment of marshalling yards in the context of quantified area risk analysis. Three accident typologies were considered for yards: (i) "in-transit-accident-induced" releases; (ii) "shunting-accident-induced" spills; and (iii) "non-accident-induced" leaks. A specific methodology was developed for the assessment of expected release frequencies and equivalent release diameters, based on the application of HazOp and Fault Tree techniques to reference schemes defined for the more common types of railcar vessels used for "hazmat" transportation. The approach was applied to the assessment of an extended case-study. The results evidenced that "non-accident-induced" leaks in marshalling yards represent an important contribution to the overall risk associated to these zones. Furthermore, the results confirmed the considerable role of these fixed installations to the overall risk associated to "hazmat" transportation.

  6. SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

    PubMed

    Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

    2001-10-12

    As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

  7. Methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-07-01

    This paper proposes methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions. An accident modification function is a mathematical function describing systematic variation in the effects of road safety measures. The paper describes ten guidelines. An example is given of how to use the guidelines. The importance of exploratory analysis and an iterative approach in developing accident modification functions is stressed. The example shows that strict compliance with all the guidelines may be difficult, but represents a level of stringency that should be strived for. Currently the main limitations in developing accident modification functions are the small number of good evaluation studies and the often huge variation in estimates of effect. It is therefore still not possible to develop accident modification functions for very many road safety measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-07-01

    This project proposes a Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) for analyzing railroad accident data and assessing the risk and benefit of safety-critical train control systems. This report documents in simple steps the algorithms and data input...

  11. A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Whitlow, J. D.; Neuhauser, K. S.

    A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships.more » These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme.« less

  12. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

    PubMed

    Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

    2010-10-01

    In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe

  14. Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

    2009-08-15

    Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

  15. Risk of accidents in drivers with epilepsy.

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, J; Chadwick, D; Johnson, T

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To estimate the risks of road traffic accidents over a period of three years in drivers with a history of single seizures or epilepsy, and to compare them with a cohort of drivers followed up by the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL). DESIGN--A retrospective survey of driving and accident experience by self-completion questionnaire. SUBJECTS--16,958 drivers with a previous history of epilepsy responding to the survey and 8888 non-epileptic drivers responding to a TRL survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The risk of any accident, any accident producing an injury, and any accident producing a serious injury, over a three year period. RESULTS--After adjustment for differences in age, sex, driving experience, and mileage between the two populations there was no evidence of any overall increase in risk of accidents in the population of drivers with a history of epilepsy. However, there was evidence of an increased risk of more severe accidents in the population with epilepsy. The risk was increased by about 40% for serious injuries and there was evidence of a twofold risk of increase in non-driver fatalities. These increases seem largely explicable by the occurrence of seizures in this population during the three years of driving that the survey covered. CONCLUSIONS--The acceptability of driving for people with a history of epilepsy should be determined by an acceptable risk of accidents resulting in injury or serious injury rather than overall accident rates. As people with epilepsy can now drive after a 12 month seizure free period rather than the required two year period when this survey was undertaken, it is important to ascertain whether there is any increased risk of injury associated accidents with this policy. PMID:8648327

  16. Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh

    2017-11-01

    A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

  17. Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

    2017-11-01

    The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

  18. Risk factors for injury accidents among moped and motorcycle riders.

    PubMed

    Moskal, Aurélie; Martin, Jean-Louis; Laumon, Bernard

    2012-11-01

    To study and quantify the effect of factors related to the riders of powered two-wheelers on the risk of injury accident involvement. Based on national data held by the police from 1996 to 2005, we conducted a case-control study with responsibility for the accident as the event of interest. We estimated the odds ratios for accident responsibility. Making the hypothesis that the non-responsible riders in the study are representative of all the riders on the road, we thus identified risk factors for being responsible for injury accidents. The studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, validity of the subject's driving licence and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Moped and motorcycle riders are analyzed separately, adjusting for the main characteristics of the accident. For both moped and motorcycle riders, being male, not wearing a helmet, exceeding the legal limit for alcohol and travelling for leisure purposes increased the risk of accident involvement. The youngest and oldest users had a greater risk of accident involvement. The largest risk factor was alcohol, and we identified a dose-effect relationship between alcohol consumption and accident risk, with an estimated odds ratio of over 10 for motorcycle and moped riders with a BAC of 2 g/l or over. Among motorcycle users, riders without a licence had twice the risk of being involved in an accident than those holding a valid licence. However, the number of years the rider had held a licence reduced the risk of accident involvement. One difference between moped and motorcycle riders involved the presence of a passenger on the vehicle: while carrying a passenger increased the risk of being responsible for the accident among moped riders, it protected against this risk among motorcycle riders. This analysis of responsibility has identified the major factors contributing to excess risk of injury accidents, some of which could be

  19. Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

    2004-07-01

    This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

  20. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

    PubMed

    Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2017-09-01

    This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

  1. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    PubMed

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

    2013-03-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any

  2. A systems modeling methodology for evaluation of vehicle aggressivity in the automotive accident environment

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-03-05

    A systems modeling approach is presented for assessment of harm in the automotive accident environment. The methodology is presented in general form and then applied to evaluate vehicle aggressivity in frontal crashes. The methodology consists of par...

  3. [Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

    PubMed

    Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

  4. The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor; A methodological re-meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Af Wåhlberg, A E; Barraclough, P; Freeman, J

    2015-12-01

    The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include unpublished results. The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, using the mean of accidents as proxy for effect indicated that studies where effects for violations are not reported have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r<.07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which tendencies are controlled for. Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the published effect sizes of the DBQ. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent. A greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into

  5. Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

    PubMed

    Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

    1990-10-01

    A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

  6. Accident frequency and unrealistic optimism: Children's assessment of risk.

    PubMed

    Joshi, Mary Sissons; Maclean, Morag; Stevens, Claire

    2018-02-01

    Accidental injury is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among children, warranting research on their risk perceptions. Three hundred and seven children aged 10-11 years assessed the frequency, danger and personal risk likelihood of 8 accidents. Two social-cognitive biases were manifested. The frequency of rare accidents (e.g. drowning) was overestimated, and the frequency of common accidents (e.g. bike accidents) underestimated; and the majority of children showed unrealistic optimism tending to see themselves as less likely to suffer these accidents in comparison to their peers, offering superior skills or parental control of the environment as an explanation. In the case of pedestrian accidents, children recognised their seriousness, underestimated the frequency of this risk and regarded their own road crossing skill as protection. These findings highlight the challenging task facing safety educators who, when teaching conventional safety knowledge and routines, also need to alert children to the danger of over-confidence without disabling them though fear. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

    2016-12-01

    Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

  8. Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

    PubMed

    Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

    2018-08-01

    Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2014-12-01

    Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  10. Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

  11. Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

    PubMed

    Rickard, Laura N

    2014-03-01

    Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. A new method for assessing the risk of accident associated with darkness.

    PubMed

    Johansson, Osten; Wanvik, Per Ole; Elvik, Rune

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents a new method for assessing the risk of accidents associated with darkness. The method estimates the risk of accident associated with darkness in terms of an odds ratio, which is defined as follows: [(number of accidents in darkness in a given hour of the day)/(number of accidents in daylight in the same hour of the day)]/[(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is dark)/(Number of accidents in a given comparison hour when the case hour is in daylight)]. This estimate of the risk of accident associated with darkness does not require data on exposure, but relies on the count of accidents in the same pair of hours throughout the year. One of the hours is dark part of the year, but has daylight the rest of the year. The comparison hour, which has daylight the whole year, is used to control for seasonal variations. The aim of relying on the same pair of hours throughout the year is to minimise the influence of potentially confounding factors. Estimates of the risk of injury accidents associated with darkness are developed on the basis of accident data for Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands. It is found that the risk of an injury accident increases by nearly 30% in darkness in urban areas, by nearly 50% in rural areas, and by about 40% for urban and rural areas combined (adjusted estimate).

  13. Aftereffect Calculation and Prediction of Methanol Tank Leak’s Environmental Risk Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lang, Yueting; Zheng, Lina; Chen, Henan; Wang, Qiushi; Jiang, Hui; Pan, Yiwen

    2018-01-01

    With the increasing frequency of environmental risk accidents, more emphasis was placed on environmental risk assessment. In this article, the aftermath of an Environmental Risk Accident on Methanol Tank Leakage occurred on a cryogenic unit area in a certain oilfield processing plant have been mainly calculated and predicted. Major hazards were identified through the major hazards identification on dangerous chemicals, which could afterwards analyze maximum credible accident and confirm source item and the source intensity. In the end, the consequence of the accident has been calculated so that the impact on surrounding environment can be predicted after the accident.

  14. Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

    PubMed

    Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Effects of driver nationality and road characteristics on accident fault risk.

    PubMed

    Yannis, George; Golias, John; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

    2007-09-01

    This paper investigates the combined effect of driver nationality and several road characteristics (area type, at or not at junction, lighting conditions) on accident fault risk. Data from the national accident database of Greece are used to calculate accident relative fault risk rates under induced exposure assumptions. A log-linear analysis is then used to examine first- and higher-order effects within three or more variable groups. The examination of the second-order interaction among the accident fault risks of various driver nationalities at or not at junction was found to be significant. On the contrary, the respective combined effects of area type and lighting conditions were found to be non-significant. It was also shown that roadway features do not affect accident fault risk in a combined way. Results clearly indicate that foreign drivers in Greece are at increased risk. Moreover, foreign nationalities corresponding to permanent residents (i.e. Greeks and Albanians) appear to be at lower fault risk compared to foreign nationalities corresponding to tourists and visitors (e.g. EU Nationals). The effects of the various road characteristics do not modify these general trends.

  16. Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

    PubMed Central

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

  17. Applying the AcciMap methodology to investigate the tragic Sewol Ferry accident in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Samuel; Moh, Young Bo; Tabibzadeh, Maryam; Meshkati, Najmedin

    2017-03-01

    This study applies the AcciMap methodology, which was originally proposed by Professor Jens Rasmussen (1997), to the analysis of the tragic Sewol Ferry accident in South Korea on April 16, 2014, which killed 304 mostly young people and is considered as a national disaster in that country. This graphical representation, by incorporating associated socio-technical factors into an integrated framework, provides a big-picture to illustrate the context in which an accident occurred as well as the interactions between different levels of the studied system that resulted in that event. In general, analysis of past accidents within the stated framework can define the patterns of hazards within an industrial sector. Such analysis can lead to the definition of preconditions for safe operations, which is a main focus of proactive risk management systems. In the case of the Sewol Ferry accident, a lot of the blame has been placed on the Sewol's captain and its crewmembers. However, according to this study, which relied on analyzing all available sources published in English and Korean, the disaster is the result of a series of lapses and disregards for safety across different levels of government and regulatory bodies, Chonghaejin Company, and the Sewol's crewmembers. The primary layers of the AcciMap framework, which include the political environment and non-proactive governmental body; inadequate regulations and their lax oversight and enforcement; poor safety culture; inconsideration of human factors issues; and lack of and/or outdated standard operating and emergency procedures were not only limited to the maritime industry in South Korea, and the Sewol Ferry accident, but they could also subject any safety-sensitive industry anywhere in the world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric andmore » biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.« less

  19. Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

    PubMed

    Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

    2010-02-01

    Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

  20. Benzodiazepine-like hypnotics and the associated risk of road traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Orriols, L; Philip, P; Moore, N; Castot, A; Gadegbeku, B; Delorme, B; Mallaret, M; Lagarde, E

    2011-04-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the association between the use of benzodiazepine or benzodiazepine-like hypnotics and the risk of road traffic accidents. Data from three French national databases were matched: the health-care insurance database, police reports, and the police database of injury-related traffic accidents. A total of 72,685 drivers involved in injury-related road traffic accidents in France, from 2005 to 2008, were included in the study. The risk of being responsible for a traffic accident was higher in users of benzodiazepine hypnotics (odds ratio (OR) = 1.39 (1.08-1.79)) and in the 155 drivers to whom a dosage of more than one pill of zolpidem a day had been dispensed during the 5 months before the collision (OR = 2.46 (1.70-3.56)). No association was found between the use of zopiclone and risk of traffic accidents. Although this study did not find any association between the use of zolpidem as recommended and causation of traffic accidents, the potential risk related to possible abuse of the drug and risky driving behaviors should be further investigated. The results related to benzodiazepine hypnotics are consistent with those of previous studies.

  1. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  2. Sleep Apnea Related Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents is Reduced by Continuous Positive Airway Pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry Data

    PubMed Central

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. Design: MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Setting: Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). Patients: There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. Interventions: CPAP. Measurements and Results: The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P < 0.001). Estimated excess accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65–80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤ 5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). Conclusions: The motor vehicle accident risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. Citation: Karimi M, Hedner J, Häbel H, Nerman O, Grote L. Sleep apnea related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish traffic accident registry data. SLEEP 2015;38(3):341–349. PMID

  3. Sleepy driver near-misses may predict accident risks.

    PubMed

    Powell, Nelson B; Schechtman, Kenneth B; Riley, Robert W; Guilleminault, Christian; Chiang, Rayleigh Ping-ying; Weaver, Edward M

    2007-03-01

    To quantify the prevalence of self-reported near-miss sleepy driving accidents and their association with self-reported actual driving accidents. A prospective cross-sectional internet-linked survey on driving behaviors. Dateline NBC News website. Results are given on 35,217 (88% of sample) individuals with a mean age of 37.2 +/- 13 years, 54.8% women, and 87% white. The risk of at least one accident increased monotonically from 23.2% if there were no near-miss sleepy accidents to 44.5% if there were > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). After covariate adjustments, subjects who reported at least one near-miss sleepy accident were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.16) times as likely to have reported at least one actual accident as subjects reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). The odds of reporting at least one actual accident in those reporting > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents as compared to those reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents was 1.87 (95% CI, 1.64 to 2.14). Furthermore, after adjustments, the summary Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score had an independent association with having a near-miss or actual accident. An increase of 1 unit of ESS was associated with a covariate adjusted 4.4% increase of having at least one accident (P < 0.0001). A statistically significant dose-response was seen between the numbers of self-reported sleepy near-miss accidents and an actual accident. These findings suggest that sleepy near-misses may be dangerous precursors to an actual accident.

  4. Risk Communication as a Tool for Training Apprentice Welders: A Study about Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Severo, Luana de Oliveira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Turik, Claudia

    2012-01-01

    The present study has aimed to identify the perceptions of apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed; identify types of occupational accidents involving apprentice welders; and report the development of a socioenvironmental education intervention as a tool for risk communication for apprentice welders. A quantitative study was performed with 161 apprentice welders in Southern Brazil in 2011. Data collection was performed via structured interviews with the apprentice welders about risk perception, occupational accidents, and time experienced in welding. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.9%), chemical (95%), physiological (86.3%), and biological (51.5%). In this sample, 39.7% of apprentice welders reported occupational accidents and 27.3% reported burning. The inferential analysis showed that the frequency of risk perception factors increases with the length of experience, and apprentice welders who have experienced accidents during welding activity perceive a higher amount of risk factors than those who have never experienced them. It is concluded that apprentice welders perceive risks and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their activity. PMID:23326211

  5. RiskSOAP: Introducing and applying a methodology of risk self-awareness in road tunnel safety.

    PubMed

    Chatzimichailidou, Maria Mikela; Dokas, Ioannis M

    2016-05-01

    Complex socio-technical systems, such as road tunnels, can be designed and developed with more or less elements that can either positively or negatively affect the capability of their agents to recognise imminent threats or vulnerabilities that possibly lead to accidents. This capability is called risk Situation Awareness (SA) provision. Having as a motive the introduction of better tools for designing and developing systems that are self-aware of their vulnerabilities and react to prevent accidents and losses, this paper introduces the Risk Situation Awareness Provision (RiskSOAP) methodology to the field of road tunnel safety, as a means to measure this capability in this kind of systems. The main objective is to test the soundness and the applicability of RiskSOAP to infrastructure, which is advanced in terms of technology, human integration, and minimum number of safety requirements imposed by international bodies. RiskSOAP is applied to a specific road tunnel in Greece and the accompanying indicator is calculated twice, once for the tunnel design as defined by updated European safety standards and once for the 'as-is' tunnel composition, which complies with the necessary safety requirements, but calls for enhancing safety according to what EU and PIARC further suggest. The derived values indicate the extent to which each tunnel version is capable of comprehending its threats and vulnerabilities based on its elements. The former tunnel version seems to be more enhanced both in terms of it risk awareness capability and safety as well. Another interesting finding is that despite the advanced tunnel safety specifications, there is still room for enriching the safe design and maintenance of the road tunnel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Methodological development for selection of significant predictors explaining fatal road accidents.

    PubMed

    Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca; Mira-McWilliams, José; Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco

    2016-05-01

    Identification of the most relevant factors for explaining road accident occurrence is an important issue in road safety research, particularly for future decision-making processes in transport policy. However model selection for this particular purpose is still an ongoing research. In this paper we propose a methodological development for model selection which addresses both explanatory variable and adequate model selection issues. A variable selection procedure, TIM (two-input model) method is carried out by combining neural network design and statistical approaches. The error structure of the fitted model is assumed to follow an autoregressive process. All models are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method where the model parameters are assigned non-informative prior distributions. The final model is built using the results of the variable selection. For the application of the proposed methodology the number of fatal accidents in Spain during 2000-2011 was used. This indicator has experienced the maximum reduction internationally during the indicated years thus making it an interesting time series from a road safety policy perspective. Hence the identification of the variables that have affected this reduction is of particular interest for future decision making. The results of the variable selection process show that the selected variables are main subjects of road safety policy measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. A methodology for accident analysis of fusion breeder blankets and its application to helium-cooled lead–lithium blanket

    DOE PAGES

    Panayotov, Dobromir; Poitevin, Yves; Grief, Andrew; ...

    2016-09-23

    'Fusion for Energy' (F4E) is designing, developing, and implementing the European Helium-Cooled Lead-Lithium (HCLL) and Helium-Cooled Pebble-Bed (HCPB) Test Blanket Systems (TBSs) for ITER (Nuclear Facility INB-174). Safety demonstration is an essential element for the integration of these TBSs into ITER and accident analysis is one of its critical components. A systematic approach to accident analysis has been developed under the F4E contract on TBS safety analyses. F4E technical requirements, together with Amec Foster Wheeler and INL efforts, have resulted in a comprehensive methodology for fusion breeding blanket accident analysis that addresses the specificity of the breeding blanket designs, materials,more » and phenomena while remaining consistent with the approach already applied to ITER accident analyses. Furthermore, the methodology phases are illustrated in the paper by its application to the EU HCLL TBS using both MELCOR and RELAP5 codes.« less

  9. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  10. Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

    2012-05-01

    A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

  11. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    PubMed

    Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  12. Public awareness of home accident risks--some implications for health promotion.

    PubMed Central

    Bryce, G; Fakher, N

    1992-01-01

    Through daily contact with injured people there was a feeling that most people are sufficiently aware of the dangers in specific risk factor activities, but were not fully aware that they could do a lot to prevent harm coming upon themselves. This paper describes the results of a self-administered questionnaire about the accidents people suffered at home, their level of awareness of the risk they were undertaking, whether they had had a similar accident before, what they think the recovery period from their injury is likely to be and knowledge of, and accidents involving, 17 generally known risk activities. The results confirm that most people are indeed aware of dangers yet a large number still have accidents in spite of that. The results also indicate that campaigns advising people how to avoid these dangers could be successful. PMID:1388501

  13. A Case-Control Study Estimating Accident Risk for Alcohol, Medicines and Illegal Drugs

    PubMed Central

    Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

    2012-01-01

    Background The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. Methods A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Results Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. Conclusion The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope. PMID:22952694

  14. Helmet use and risk compensation in motorcycle accidents.

    PubMed

    Ouellet, James V

    2011-02-01

    The "risk compensation" hypothesis suggests that individuals offset perceived gains in safety by increasing their risk-taking behavior to maintain a stable or "homeostatic" level of risk. If this is true for motorcyclists, then helmet use, which reduces the risk of brain injury and death, may lead helmet users to take more risks when they ride. Thus, increased risk-taking by helmet users should show up as overrepresentation in crashes, and accident reconstruction should reveal risky behaviors in the seconds just before the crash. This article examines data from two separate studies involving the on-scene, in-depth investigation and reconstruction of motorcycle crashes: 900 in Los Angeles (1976-1977) and another 1082 in Thailand (1999-2000). Each crash was investigated on scene within minutes of its occurrence by teams of specially trained researchers and later reconstructed in order to identify precrash and crash events, verify helmet use/nonuse, etc. "Exposure" data on helmet use and other readily visible factors were also collected for the population-at-risk by observing riders who passed by each accident scene some time after a crash that had been investigated by the team. In this article, helmeted and unhelmeted accident-involved riders are compared to each other as well as to the population-at-risk. In Thailand, helmeted riders did not differ significantly from unhelmeted riders in alcohol use, precrash speed, being the primary or sole cause of the crash, or unsafe speed or lane positioning for the traffic conditions; they were no more likely to be in a single-vehicle accident, to crash by running off the road, or to lose control. In Los Angeles, drinking riders were half as likely to wear a helmet as nondrinkers. However, when drinkers and nondrinkers were segregated, helmeted riders were no more likely to cause their crash, run stop signs or red lights, commit other traffic code violations, or run off the road. They did not differ in speed or single

  15. Sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing in truck drivers : risk analysis of road accidents.

    PubMed

    Catarino, Rosa; Spratley, Jorge; Catarino, Isabel; Lunet, Nuno; Pais-Clemente, Manuel

    2014-03-01

    Portugal has one of the highest road traffic fatality rates in Europe. A clear association between sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and traffic accidents has been previously demonstrated. This study aimed to determine prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and other sleep disorder symptoms among truck drivers and to identify which individual traits and work habits are associated to increased sleepiness and accident risk. We evaluated a sample of 714 truck drivers using a questionnaire (244 face-to-face interviews, 470 self-administered) that included sociodemographic data, personal habits, previous accidents, Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and the Berlin questionnaire (BQ). Twenty percent of drivers had EDS and 29 % were at high risk for having obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). Two hundred sixty-one drivers (36.6 %) reported near-miss accidents (42.5 % sleep related) and 264 (37.0 %), a driving accident (16.3 % sleep related). ESS score ≥ 11 was a risk factor for both near-miss accidents (odds ratio (OR)=3.84, p<0.01) and accidents (OR=2.25, p<0.01). Antidepressant use was related to accidents (OR=3.30, p=0.03). We found an association between high Mallampati score (III-IV) and near misses (OR=1.89, p=0.04). In this sample of Portuguese truck drivers, we observed a high prevalence of EDS and other sleep disorder symptoms. Accident risk was related to sleepiness and antidepressant use. Identifying drivers at risk for OSAS should be a major priority of medical assessment centers, as a public safety policy.

  16. Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Chen, Guanghan

    2013-10-01

    With the recent economic boom in China, vehicle volume and the number of traffic accident fatalities have become the highest in the world. Meanwhile, traffic accidents have become the leading cause of death in China. Systematically analyzing road safety data from different perspectives and applying empirical methods/implementing proper measures to reduce the fatality rate will be an urgent and challenging task for China in the coming years. In this study, we analyze the traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report, are the only officially available and reliable source of traffic accident data (with a sample size>7000 per year). In particular, we focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity. Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered. First, the results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. An immediate implication is: if the traffic violation rate could be reduced or controlled successfully, then the rate of serious injuries and fatalities would be reduced accordingly. Second, specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined. Accordingly, to reduce traffic accident incidence and fatality rates, measures such as traffic regulations and legislation-targeting different vehicle types/driver groups with respect to the various human, vehicle and environment risk factors-are needed. Such measures could include road safety programs for targeted driver groups, focused enforcement of traffic regulations and road/transport facility improvements. Data analysis results arising from this study will shed lights on the development of similar (adjusted) measures to reduce traffic violations and/or accident fatalities and injuries, and to promote road safety in other regions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All

  17. Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-05-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

  18. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test

  19. Managing major chemical accidents in China: towards effective risk information.

    PubMed

    He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong; Mol, Arthur P J

    2011-03-15

    Chemical industries, from their very inception, have been controversial due to the high risks they impose on safety of human beings and the environment. Recent decades have witnessed increasing impacts of the accelerating expansion of chemical industries and chemical accidents have become a major contributor to environmental and health risks in China. This calls for the establishment of an effective chemical risk management system, which requires reliable, accurate and comprehensive data in the first place. However, the current chemical accident-related data system is highly fragmented and incomplete, as different responsible authorities adopt different data collection standards and procedures for different purposes. In building a more comprehensive, integrated and effective information system, this article: (i) reviews and assesses the existing data sources and data management, (ii) analyzes data on 976 recorded major hazardous chemical accidents in China over the last 40 years, and (iii) identifies the improvements required for developing integrated risk management in China. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. [Injury rate and incidence of accidents with biological risk among infirmary students].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez Martín, A; Novalbos Ruiz, J P; Costa Alonso, M J; Zafra Mezcua, J A

    2000-09-09

    A study of the incidence and characteristics of biological accidents among infirmary students during their practicals at the hospital. A retrospective study carried out at five centres by means of two questionnaires, one on the duration of the training and the rate of accidents and the other on the characteristics, precautions and ports exposure behaviour. Out of 397 students, 70,5% had accidents at a rate of 64% (CI 95%, 59-68). Of these, 15% were accidents with biological risk, the majority being jabs (39%) and splashes (32,5%). It is worth note that 49,2% occurred while putting away the material and 58% in the absence of any individual protective measures. One out of 8 accidents implied a biological risk. A very high rate of accidents was observed with important deficiencies in security.

  1. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  2. Evaluation of Traffic Accident Risk in In-City Bus Drivers: The Use of Berlin Questionnaire

    PubMed Central

    Ekren, Pervin Korkmaz; Uysal, Funda Elmas; Başoğlu, Özen K.

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Traffic accidents associated with high mortality rate may produce serious problems especially in highways. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with a high risk for traffic accidents due to excessive daytime sleepiness even in in-city drivers. In the present study, it was aimed to evaluate the rate of OSA symptoms and to identify risk factors associated with traffic accidents in in-city bus drivers. MATERIAL AND METHODS A self-administered questionnaire including demographic and anthropometric features, sleep and work schedules, Berlin questionnaire, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), and history of traffic accidents was used. RESULTS The questionnaire was conducted for 1400 male bus drivers (mean age, 38.0±6.4 y, body mass index, 27.8±3.9 kg/m2). A total of 1058 (75.6%) drivers had one or more accidents while driving bus. According to the Berlin questionnaire, 176 (12.6%) drivers were found to have high OSA risk and the accident rate was 83.0% in high-risk group, whereas 74.5% of low-risk drivers had accidents (p=0.043). The drivers with a history of traffic accident were older (p=0.030), had higher ESS (p=0.019), and were more in the high-risk OSA group according to the Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). In multivariate linear regression analysis, traffic accident was associated with only Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). CONCLUSION The present results support that city bus drivers with high OSA risk according to Berlin questionnaire have increased accident rates. Therefore, we suggest using Berlin questionnaire for screening sleep apnea not only in highway drivers but also in in-city bus drivers. PMID:29755810

  3. Evaluation of Traffic Accident Risk in In-City Bus Drivers: The Use of Berlin Questionnaire.

    PubMed

    Taşbakan, Mehmet Sezai; Ekren, Pervin Korkmaz; Uysal, Funda Elmas; Başoğlu, Özen K

    2018-04-01

    Traffic accidents associated with high mortality rate may produce serious problems especially in highways. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with a high risk for traffic accidents due to excessive daytime sleepiness even in in-city drivers. In the present study, it was aimed to evaluate the rate of OSA symptoms and to identify risk factors associated with traffic accidents in in-city bus drivers. A self-administered questionnaire including demographic and anthropometric features, sleep and work schedules, Berlin questionnaire, Epworth sleepiness score (ESS), and history of traffic accidents was used. The questionnaire was conducted for 1400 male bus drivers (mean age, 38.0±6.4 y, body mass index, 27.8±3.9 kg/m 2 ). A total of 1058 (75.6%) drivers had one or more accidents while driving bus. According to the Berlin questionnaire, 176 (12.6%) drivers were found to have high OSA risk and the accident rate was 83.0% in high-risk group, whereas 74.5% of low-risk drivers had accidents (p=0.043). The drivers with a history of traffic accident were older (p=0.030), had higher ESS (p=0.019), and were more in the high-risk OSA group according to the Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). In multivariate linear regression analysis, traffic accident was associated with only Berlin questionnaire (p=0.015). The present results support that city bus drivers with high OSA risk according to Berlin questionnaire have increased accident rates. Therefore, we suggest using Berlin questionnaire for screening sleep apnea not only in highway drivers but also in in-city bus drivers.

  4. Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

    PubMed

    Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

    2007-11-01

    Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

  5. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2011-11-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  6. Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, D.; Lelieveld, J.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90 % of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50 % beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  7. Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

  8. Sleep apnea-related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry data.

    PubMed

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-03-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. CPAP. The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P < 0.001). Estimated excess accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65-80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). The MVA risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with OSA suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  9. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  10. [Chronological assessment of the preventive measures taken in the field of road traffic accidents in France. Methodological problems and results. (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Hatton, F; Bouvier, M H; Maujol, L

    1981-01-01

    Corresponding to a non-experimental approach and based upon the study of indices obtained from permanent statistics, this assessment presents methodological difficulties linked both: to the choice of permanant indicators and to the interpretation of their variations in a situation of observation. The results permit us to appraise the consequences of the global policy of prevention in the field of road traffic accidents in France during many consecutive years: - the decrease of mortality and morbidity demographic indices; - the strengthening of the regressive tendency of the risk indices linked to road traffic (number of dead and wounded in relation to the "km" covered, to the consumption of motor-fuel...). The agreement of the evolutive tendencies of these indicators lets us think that the campaign against traffic accidents has had the desired effects even if they are still incomplete.

  11. Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Garba, Nuraddeen Nasiru; Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Gabdo, Hamman Tukur; Liman, Muhammad Sanusi

    2015-02-01

    This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Latent class analysis of accident risks in usage-based insurance: Evidence from Beijing.

    PubMed

    Jin, Wen; Deng, Yinglu; Jiang, Hai; Xie, Qianyan; Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian

    2018-06-01

    Car insurance is quickly becoming a big data industry, with usage-based insurance (UBI) poised to potentially change the business of insurance. Telematics data, which are transmitted from wireless devices in car, are widely used in UBI to obtain individual-level travel and driving characteristics. While most existing studies have introduced telematics data into car insurance pricing, the telematics-related characteristics are directly obtained from the raw data. In this study, we propose to quantify drivers' familiarity with their driving routes and develop models to quantify drivers' accident risks using the telematics data. In addition, we build a latent class model to study the heterogeneity in travel and driving styles based on the telematics data, which has not been investigated in literature. Our main results include: (1) the improvement to the model fit is statistically significant by adding telematics-related characteristics; (2) drivers' familiarity with their driving trips is critical to identify high risk drivers, and the relationship between drivers' familiarity and accident risks is non-linear; (3) the drivers can be classified into two classes, where the first class is the low risk class with 0.54% of its drivers reporting accidents, and the second class is the high risk class with 20.66% of its drivers reporting accidents; and (4) for the low risk class, drivers with high probability of reporting accidents can be identified by travel-behavior-related characteristics, while for the high risk class, they can be identified by driving-behavior-related characteristics. The driver's familiarity will affect the probability of reporting accidents for both classes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Effect of consecutive driving on accident risk: a comparison between passenger and freight train driving.

    PubMed

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Ju, Lai-Shun

    2008-11-01

    This study combined driver-responsible accidents with on-board driving hours to examine the effect of consecutive driving on the accident risk of train operations. The data collected from the Taiwan Railway Administration for the period 1996-2006 was used to compute accident rates for varied accumulated driving hours for passenger and freight trains. The results showed that accident risk grew with increased consecutive driving hours for both passenger and freight trains, and doubled that of the first hour after four consecutive hours of driving. Additional accident risk was found for freight trains during the first hour due to required shunting in the marshalling yards where there are complex track layouts and semi-automatic traffic controls. Also, accident risk for train driving increased more quickly over consecutive driving hours than for automobile driving, and accumulated fatigue caused by high working pressure and monotony of the working environment are considered to be the part of the reason. To prevent human errors accidents, enhancing safety equipment, driver training programs, and establishing a sound auditing system are suggested and discussed.

  14. Risk of Occupational Accidents in Workers with Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Garbarino, Sergio; Guglielmi, Ottavia; Sanna, Antonio; Mancardi, Gian Luigi; Magnavita, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is the single most important preventable medical cause of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and driving accidents. OSA may also adversely affect work performance through a decrease in productivity, and an increase in the injury rate. Nevertheless, no systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between OSA and work accidents has been performed thus far. Methods: PubMed, PsycInfo, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched. Out of an initial list of 1,099 papers, 10 studies (12,553 participants) were eligible for our review, and 7 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The overall effects were measured by odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). An assessment was made of the methodological quality of the studies. Moderator analysis and funnel plot analysis were used to explore the sources of between-study heterogeneity. Results: Compared to controls, the odds of work accident was found to be nearly double in workers with OSA (OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.53–3.10). Occupational driving was associated with a higher effect size. Conclusions: OSA is an underdiagnosed nonoccupational disease that has a strong adverse effect on work accidents. The nearly twofold increased odds of work accidents in subjects with OSA calls for workplace screening in selected safety-sensitive occupations. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1171. Citation: Garbarino S, Guglielmi O, Sanna A, Mancardi GL, Magnavita N. Risk of occupational accidents in workers with obstructive sleep apnea: systematic review and meta-analysis. SLEEP 2016;39(6):1211–1218. PMID:26951401

  15. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  16. Pedestrian injury risk functions based on contour lines of equal injury severity using real world pedestrian/passenger-car accident data

    PubMed Central

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

    2013-01-01

    Injury risk assessment plays a pivotal role in the assessment of the effectiveness of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as they specify the injury reduction potential of the system. The usual way to describe injury risks is by use of injury risk functions, i.e. specifying the probability of an injury of a given severity occurring at a specific technical accident severity (collision speed). A method for the generation of a family of risk functions for different levels of injury severity is developed. The injury severity levels are determined by use of a rescaled version of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) namely the ISSx. The injury risk curves for each collision speed is then obtained by fixing the boundary conditions and use of a case-by-case validated GIDAS subset of pedestrian-car accidents (N=852). The resultant functions are of exponential form as opposed to the frequently used logistic regression form. The exponential approach in combination with the critical speed value creates a new injury risk pattern better fitting for high speed/high energy crashes. Presented is a family of pedestrian injury risk functions for an arbitrary injury severity. Thus, the effectiveness of an ADAS can be assessed for mitigation of different injury severities using the same injury risk function and relying on the internal soundness of the risk function with regard to different injury severity levels. For the assessment of emergency braking ADAS, a Zone of Effective Endangerment Increase (ZEEI), the speed interval in which a one percent speed increase results at least in a one percent of injury risk increase, is defined. The methodology presented is kept in such general terms that a direct adaption to other accident configurations is easily done. PMID:24406954

  17. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

    PubMed

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-04-20

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

  18. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China

    PubMed Central

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents. PMID:28425956

  19. Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

    A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

  20. Risk factors of fatal occupational accidents in Iran.

    PubMed

    Asady, Hadi; Yaseri, Mehdi; Hosseini, Mostafa; Zarif-Yeganeh, Morvarid; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Haghshenas, Mahin; Hajizadeh-Moghadam, Parisa

    2018-01-01

    Occupational accidents are of most important consequences of globalization in developing countries. Therefore, investigating the causes of occupational accidents for improving the job situation and making operational policy is necessary. So the aim of this study was to investigate factors affecting the fatal occupational accidents and also calculate the years of life lost for dead workers. This cross-sectional study was conducted on data related to the 6052 injured workers that was registered in the 2013 registry system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran. Variables including sex, education, age, job tenure, injury cause, referred location of injured workers, occupation, shift work, season, accident day, damaged part of the body were chosen as independent variables. The Chi-squared and Fisher exact tests were used for univariate analysis and then exact multiple logistic regression was carried out to identify independent risk factors of fatal occupational accidents. Finally, for dead workers, years of life lost, according to the injury causes was calculated. Among the 6052 accidents reported, 33 deaths were recorded. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests showed that factors including: current job tenure ( p  = 0.01), damaged parts of the body ( p  < 0.001) and injury cause ( p  < 0.001) are associated with the fatal accidents. Also exact multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between electric shocks as a cause of injury (OR = 7.04; 95% CI: 1.01-43.74; p  = 0.02) and current job tenure more than 1 year (OR = 0.21; 95% CI: 0.05-0.70; p  = 0.005) with the fatal accidents. The total amount of years of life lost based on causes of injuries was estimated 1289.12 years. In Iran, fatal accident odds in workers with job tenure more than 1 year was less in comparing to the workers with job tenure less and equal to 1 year. Also odd of death for electrical shock was more than other causes of injuries. So it seems

  1. LNG risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martino, P.

    1980-12-01

    A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

  2. Patients' Risk of Causing Traffic Violations and Traffic Accidents while Driving.

    PubMed

    Šestan, Nevenka; Dodič Fikfak, Metoda; Balantič, Zvone

    2017-09-01

    This study examines whether drivers suffering from epilepsy, chronic alcoholism and/or hazardous drinking, psychoactive substance abuse, other diseases of the nervous system, mental and behavioural disorders, cardiovascular diseases, severe diabetes, and severe eye diseases are at a greater risk of causing traffic accidents and traffic violations than drivers that cause accidents and violations without these diagnoses. A case control study was carried out. The cases were drivers checked by a special medical committee in the period observed suffering from the diseases listed above. Matched controls were taken from the cohort of those that caused accidents and violations during the same period observed. The descriptive statistics were followed by calculation of correlations, t-tests and χ 2 , and the odds ratio. Drivers with referrals for diseases of the nervous system are five times more likely to cause a traffic accident compared to controls (OR=5.18; 95% CI=2.59-10.34); in addition, a high risk is associated with drivers with mental and behavioural disorders (OR=3.64; 95% CI=1.91-6.94), drivers with epilepsy (OR=1.99; 95% CI=1.01-3.92), and drivers addicted to alcohol (OR=1.71; 95% CI=1.01-2.89). Drivers suffering from addiction, a disease of the nervous system, or epilepsy are more likely to cause a traffic accident, which is a contribution to the inconclusive findings of previous studies. The multiple reasons for risks of patients suffering from mental and behavioural disorders need to be further investigated. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  3. The impact of young drivers' lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area.

    PubMed

    Chliaoutakis, J E; Darviri, C; Demakakos, P T

    1999-11-01

    Young drivers (18-24) both in Greece and elsewhere appear to have high rates of road traffic accidents. Many factors contribute to the creation of these high road traffic accidents rates. It has been suggested that lifestyle is an important one. The main objective of this study is to find out and clarify the (potential) relationship between young drivers' lifestyle and the road traffic accident risk they face. Moreover, to examine if all the youngsters have the same elevated risk on the road or not. The sample consisted of 241 young Greek drivers of both sexes. The statistical analysis included factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. Through the principal component analysis a ten factor scale was created which included the basic lifestyle traits of young Greek drivers. The logistic regression analysis showed that the young drivers whose dominant lifestyle trait is alcohol consumption or drive without destination have high accident risk, while these whose dominant lifestyle trait is culture, face low accident risk. Furthermore, young drivers who are religious in one way or another seem to have low accident risk. Finally, some preliminary observations on how health promotion should be put into practice are discussed.

  4. Avalanche risk in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2014-08-01

    In Switzerland, the vast majority of avalanche accidents occurs during recreational activities. Risk analysis studies mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e. how many and where people are recreating. We compared the accident data (backcountry touring) with reports from two social media mountaineering networks - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. On these websites, users reported more than 15 000 backcountry tours during the five winters 2009/2010 to 2013/2014. We noted similar patterns in avalanche accident data and user data like demographics of recreationists, distribution of the day of the week (weekday vs. weekend) or weather conditions (fine vs. poor weather). However, we also found differences such as the avalanche danger conditions on days with activities and accidents, but also the geographic distribution. While backcountry activities are concentrated in proximity to the main population centres in the West and North of the Swiss Alps, a large proportion of the severe avalanche accidents occurred in the inner-alpine, more continental regions with frequently unfavorably snowpack structure. This suggests that even greater emphasis should be put on the type of avalanche problem in avalanche education and avalanche forecasting to increase the safety of backcountry recreationists.

  5. Second-generation antipsychotics and risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Percudani, Mauro; Barbui, Corrado; Fortino, Ida; Tansella, Michele; Petrovich, Lorenzo

    2005-10-01

    Concern has been recently raised for risperidone and olanzapine, possibly associated with cerebrovascular events in placebo-controlled trials conducted in elderly subjects with dementia. We investigated the relationship between exposure to second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) and occurrence of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly. From the regional database of hospital admissions of Lombardy, Italy, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older with cerebrovascular-related outcomes for the year 2002. From the regional database of prescriptions reimbursed by the National Health Service, we extracted all patients aged 65 or older who received antipsychotic prescriptions during 2001. The 2 databases were linked anonymously using the individual patient code. The proportions of cerebrovascular accidents were 3.31% (95% confidence interval, 2.95-3.69) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to SGAs and 2.37% (95% confidence interval, 2.19-2.57) in elderly subjects exclusively exposed to first-generation antipsychotics. After background group differences were controlled for, exposure to SGAs significantly increased the risk of accidents. The analysis of cerebrovascular events in elderly subjects exposed to each individual SGA, in comparison with exposure to haloperidol, showed a significantly increased risk for risperidone only (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.93). These data provide preliminary epidemiological evidence that exposure to SGAs, in comparison with exposure to first-generation antipsychotics, significantly increased the risk of cerebrovascular accidents in the elderly.

  6. [Human risk factors and injuries due to road accidents: analysis of current data].

    PubMed

    Marchetti, Pierpaolo; Morandi, Anna; Lombardo, Carlo; Gigli Berzolari, Francesca; Bruno, Vincenzo; Marinoni, Alessandra

    2009-01-01

    several studies have shown that most road accidents are due to human factors, and that these are strongly linked to a drive's age and sex. The aim of this study is to test the role that some human factors play in road accidents by analysing current road accident data in the Province of Pavia, in Northern Italy. road accidents that occurred in 2004 were analysed by integrating the paper database of the vehicle licensing office, properly computerised, with the 911 database of the Province of Pavia. This study has been carried out by analysing 1.347 road accidents and the associated 2.908 drivers of motorised vehicles. Northern Italy, the Province of Pavia. the death rate of drivers of 2-wheeled vehicles is almost nine times higher than that of 4-wheeled vehicles. Analysis shows that females are twice as exposed to road accidents than males; it also shows the benefits of extensive road education training and of being aged 30-64 and older. Drivers who have already been punished and have had their driving license scores reduced are likely to respond rapidly when in a dangerous situation and also to be without blame after an accident. Motorcycle riders are 25 times more likely to suffer serious injury than drivers of cars. Additionally, the risk of a woman being seriously injured is higher than for a man. females, young drivers and motorcycle riders who have not previously been penalised for a previous traffic violation have a higher risk of being seriously injured; females and motorcycle riders are also at greater risk of being seriously injured. We hope that this analysis will be used to improve preventative interventions for road accidents.r.

  7. Development of a methodology for accident causation research

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1983-06-01

    The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...

  8. Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Sohanur

    2017-12-01

    Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

  9. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    PubMed

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  11. Guidelines for exposure assessment in health risk studies following a nuclear reactor accident.

    PubMed

    Bouville, André; Linet, Martha S; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Simon, Steven L

    2014-01-01

    Worldwide concerns regarding health effects after the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents indicate a clear need to identify short- and long-term health impacts that might result from accidents in the future. Fundamental to addressing this problem are reliable and accurate radiation dose estimates for the affected populations. The available guidance for activities following nuclear accidents is limited with regard to strategies for dose assessment in health risk studies. Here we propose a comprehensive systematic approach to estimating radiation doses for the evaluation of health risks resulting from a nuclear power plant accident, reflected in a set of seven guidelines. Four major nuclear reactor accidents have occurred during the history of nuclear power production. The circumstances leading to these accidents were varied, as were the magnitude of the releases of radioactive materials, the pathways by which persons were exposed, the data collected afterward, and the lifestyle factors and dietary consumption that played an important role in the associated radiation exposure of the affected populations. Accidents involving nuclear reactors may occur in the future under a variety of conditions. The guidelines we recommend here are intended to facilitate obtaining reliable dose estimations for a range of different exposure conditions. We recognize that full implementation of the proposed approach may not always be feasible because of other priorities during the nuclear accident emergency and because of limited resources in manpower and equipment. The proposed approach can serve as a basis to optimize the value of radiation dose reconstruction following a nuclear reactor accident.

  12. The role of personality traits and driving experience in self-reported risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers.

    PubMed

    Tao, Da; Zhang, Rui; Qu, Xingda

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the role of personality traits and driving experience in the prediction of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese population. A convenience sample of drivers (n=511; mean (SD) age=34.2 (8.8) years) completed a self-report questionnaire that was designed based on validated scales for measuring personality traits, risky driving behaviors and self-reported accident risk. Results from structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the data fit well with our theoretical model. While showing no direct effects on accident risk, personality traits had direct effects on risky driving behaviors, and yielded indirect effects on accident risk mediated by risky driving behaviors. Both driving experience and risky driving behaviors directly predicted accident risk and accounted for 15% of its variance. There was little gender difference in personality traits, risky driving behaviors and accident risk. The findings emphasized the importance of personality traits and driving experience in the understanding of risky driving behaviors and accident risk among Chinese drivers and provided new insight into the design of evidence-based driving education and accident prevention interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Analysis of Incident and Accident Reports and Risk Management in Spine Surgery.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Kazuyoshi; Imagama, Shiro; Ando, Kei; Hida, Tetsuro; Ito, Kenyu; Tsushima, Mikito; Ishikawa, Yoshimoto; Matsumoto, Akiyuki; Morozumi, Masayoshi; Nishida, Yoshihiro; Nagao, Yoshimasa; Ishiguro, Naoki

    2017-08-01

    A review of accident and incident reports. To analyze prevalence, characteristics, and details of perioperative incidents and accidents in patients receiving spine surgery. In our institution, a clinical error that potentially results in an adverse event is usually submitted as an incident or accident report through a web database, to ensure anonymous and blame-free reporting. All reports are analyzed by a medical safety management group. These reports contain valuable data for management of medical safety, but there have been no studies evaluating such data for spine surgery. A total of 320 incidents and accidents that occurred perioperatively in 172 of 415 spine surgeries were included in the study. Incidents were defined as events that were "problematic, but with no damage to the patient," and accidents as events "with damage to the patient." The details of these events were analyzed. There were 278 incidents in 137 surgeries and 42 accidents in 35 surgeries, giving prevalence of 33% (137/415) and 8% (35/415), respectively. The proportion of accidents among all events was significantly higher for doctors than non-doctors [68.0% (17/25) vs. 8.5% (25/295), P < 0.01] and in the operating room compared with outside the operating room [40.5% (15/37) vs. 9.5% (27/283), P < 0.01]. There was no significant difference in years of experience among personnel involved in all events. The major types of events were medication-related, line and tube problems, and falls and slips. Accidents also occurred because of a long-term prone position, with complications such as laryngeal edema, ulnar nerve palsy, and tooth damage. Surgery and procedures in the operating room always have a risk of complications. Therefore, a particular effort is needed to establish safe management of this environment and to provide advice on risk to the doctor and medical care team. 4.

  14. Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Jean-Louis; Gadegbeku, Blandine; Wu, Dan; Viallon, Vivian; Laumon, Bernard

    2017-01-01

    Introduction This research aims to estimate the relative risks of responsibility for a fatal accident linked to driving under the influence of cannabis or alcohol, the prevalence of these influences among drivers and the corresponding attributable risk ratios. A secondary goal is to estimate the same items for three other groups of illicit drugs (amphetamines, cocaine and opiates), and to compare the results to a similar study carried out in France between 2001 and 2003. Methodology Police procedures for fatal accidents in Metropolitan France during 2011 were analyzed and 300 characteristics encoded to provide a database of 4,059 drivers. Information on alcohol and four groups of illicit drugs derived from tests for positivity and potential confirmation through blood analysis. The study compares drivers responsible for causing the accident, that is to say having directly contributed to its occurrence, to drivers involved in an accident for which they were not responsible, and who can be assimilated to drivers in general. Results The proportion of persons driving under the influence of alcohol is estimated at 2.1% (95% CI: 1.4–2.8) and under the influence of cannabis at 3.4% (2.9%-3.9%). Drivers under the influence of alcohol are 17.8 times (12.1–26.1) more likely to be responsible for a fatal accident, and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever exceeded the legal limit for alcohol is estimated at 27.7% (26.0%-29.4%). Drivers under the influence of cannabis multiply their risk of being responsible for causing a fatal accident by 1.65 (1.16–2.34), and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever drove under the influence of cannabis is estimated at 4.2% (3.7%-4.8%). An increased risk linked to opiate use has also been found to be significant, but with low prevalence, requiring caution in interpreting this finding. Other groups of narcotics have even lower prevalence, and the associated

  15. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

  16. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  17. Young drivers' optimism bias for accident risk and driving skill: Accountability and insight experience manipulations.

    PubMed

    White, Melanie J; Cunningham, Lauren C; Titchener, Kirsteen

    2011-07-01

    This study aimed to determine whether two brief, low cost interventions would reduce young drivers' optimism bias for their driving skills and accident risk perceptions. This tendency for such drivers to perceive themselves as more skillful and less prone to driving accidents than their peers may lead to less engagement in precautionary driving behaviours and a greater engagement in more dangerous driving behaviour. 243 young drivers (aged 17-25 years) were randomly allocated to one of three groups: accountability, insight or control. All participants provided both overall and specific situation ratings of their driving skills and accident risk relative to a typical young driver. Prior to completing the questionnaire, those in the accountability condition were first advised that their driving skills and accident risk would be later assessed via a driving simulator. Those in the insight condition first underwent a difficult computer-based hazard perception task designed to provide participants with insight into their potential limitations when responding to hazards in difficult and unpredictable driving situations. Participants in the control condition completed only the questionnaire. Results showed that the accountability manipulation was effective in reducing optimism bias in terms of participants' comparative ratings of their accident risk in specific situations, though only for less experienced drivers. In contrast, among more experienced males, participants in the insight condition showed greater optimism bias for overall accident risk than their counterparts in the accountability or control groups. There were no effects of the manipulations on drivers' skills ratings. The differential effects of the two types of manipulations on optimism bias relating to one's accident risk in different subgroups of the young driver sample highlight the importance of targeting interventions for different levels of experience. Accountability interventions may be beneficial for

  18. [Labor accidents involving the eyes: assessment of occupational risks involving nursing workers].

    PubMed

    de Almeida, Cristiana Brasil; Pagliuca, Lorita Marlena Freitag; Leite, Ana Lourdes Almeida e Silva

    2005-01-01

    The study aimed at identifying nursing workers who were victims of eye accidents and the type of accident; describing the measures taken and proposing Health Education methods. A descriptive and exploratory study was carried out at a public maternity hospital from September 2002 to January 2003. Data were collected through direct observation of the environment and interviews with workers. Subjects were ten professionals (one nurse, two technicians and seven nursing auxiliaries) who were victims of work accidents involving the eye. The accidents were grouped according to the type of material that caused the trauma: chemical substances (4), medication (3), mechanical trauma (1), scalp (1) and urine (1). The results reveal that hospital workers are vulnerable to labor accidents because the environment presents biological, chemical and physical risks. An important step to prevent the occurrence of new accidents would be the prevention of human mistakes through permanent training and the use of protection glasses.

  19. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. MRI-related magnetic field exposures and risk of commuting accidents - A cross-sectional survey among Dutch imaging technicians.

    PubMed

    Huss, Anke; Schaap, Kristel; Kromhout, Hans

    2017-07-01

    Imaging technicians working with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may experience acute effects such as vertigo or dizziness when being exposed. A previous study also reported an increased risk of accidents in MRI exposed staff. We aimed at evaluating commuting accident risk in Dutch imaging technicians. Of invited imaging technicians, 490 (29%) filled in a questionnaire pertaining to (near) accidents when driving or riding a bike, health, lifestyle and work practices. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between exposure to MRI-related electromagnetic fields and risk of commuting (near) accidents in the year prior to the survey, adjusted for a range of potential confounders. Our cross-sectional study indicated an increased risk of (near) accidents if imaging technicians had worked with MRI in the year prior to the survey (odds ratio OR 2.13, 95%CI 1.23-3.69). Risks were higher in persons who worked with MRI more often (OR 2.32, 95%CI 1.25-4.31) compared to persons who worked sometimes with MRI (OR 1.91, 95%CI 0.98-3.72), and higher in those who had likely experienced higher peak exposures to static and time-varying magnetic fields (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.06-4.48). The effect was seen on commuting accidents that had occurred on the commute from home to work as well as accidents from work to home or elsewhere. Imaging technicians working with MRI scanners may be at an increased risk of commuting (near) accidents. This result needs confirmation and potential risks for other groups (volunteers, patients) should be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

    2013-07-01

    The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

  2. Assessment of medium-term cardiovascular disease risk after Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident: a retrospective analysis

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Shuhei; Gilmour, Stuart; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Lee, Kiwon; Kiyabu, Grace Y; Shibuya, Kenji

    2017-01-01

    Objective To assess the medium-term indirect impact of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks and to identify whether risk factors for CVD changed after the accident. Participants Residents aged 40 years and over participating in annual public health check-ups from 2009 to 2012, administered by Minamisoma city, located about 10 to 40 km from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Methods The sex-specific Framingham CVD risk score was considered as the outcome measure and was compared before (2009–2010) and after the accident (2011–2012). A multivariate regression analysis was employed to evaluate risk factors for CVD. Results Data from 563 individuals (60.2% women) aged 40 to 74 years who participated in the check-ups throughout the study period was analysed. After adjusting for covariates, no statistically significant change was identified in the CVD risk score postaccident in both sexes, which may suggest no obvious medium-term health impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on CVD risk. The risk factors for CVD and their magnitude and direction (positive/negative) did not change after the accident. Conclusions There was no obvious increase in CVD risks in Minamisoma city, which may indicate successful management of health risks associated with CVD in the study sample. PMID:29275343

  3. Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; Bonow, Clarice Alves; da Silva, Mara Regina Santos; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Cardoso, Letícia Silveira

    2012-01-01

    The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%), physical (88.2%), physiological (64.3%) and biological (62.4%). In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p < 0.05). It is concluded that workers perceive risks, and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment. PMID:22851948

  4. The potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Gohardehi, Shaban; Sharif, Mehdi; Sarvi, Shahabeddin; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Hosseini, Seyed Abdollah; Amouei, Afsaneh; Pagheh, Abdolsattar; Sadeghi, Mitra; Daryani, Ahmad

    2018-06-12

    Toxoplasmosis is a prevalent infectious disease. Although most people infected by Toxoplasma gondii are asymptomatic, evidence has suggested that this disease might affect some aspects of a host's behavior and associate with schizophrenia, suicide attempt, changes in various aspects of personality, and poor neurocognitive performance. These associations may play roles in increasing the risk of a number of incidents, such as traffic accidents, among infected people. In this regard, this study aimed to provide summary estimates for the available data on the potential risk of toxoplasmosis for traffic accidents. To this end, using a number of search terms, i.e. toxoplasmosis, Toxoplasma gondii, traffic accident, road accident, car accident, crash, and prevalence, literature searches (up to October 1, 2017) were carried out via 6 databases. The meta-analysis was conducted using the StatsDirect statistical software and a P-value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant in all statistical analyses. Out of 1841 identified studies, 9 studies were finally considered eligible for carrying out this systematic review. Reviewing results of these studies indicated that 5 out of 9 studies reported a significant relationship between Toxoplasma gondii and traffic accidents. Additionally, data related to gender showed significant differences between infected and control men and women. Considering age, reviewing the results of these studies revealed a significant difference between the infected people and the Toxoplasma-negative subjects under 45 years of age. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups aged 45 or older. Given these results, it can be concluded that Toxoplasma gondii significantly increases the risk of having traffic accidents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Childhood mental ability in relation to cause-specific accidents in adulthood: the 1970 British Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Batty, G D; Deary, I J; Schoon, I; Gale, C R

    2007-07-01

    Few data link childhood mental ability (IQ) with risk of accidents, and most published studies have methodological limitations. To examine the relationship between scores from a battery of mental ability tests taken in childhood, and self-reported accidents between the ages of 16 and 30 years. In the British Cohort study, a sample of 8172 cohort members born in Great Britain in 1970 had complete data for IQ score assessed at 10 years of age and accident data self-reported at age 30 years. The relationship between childhood IQ score and later risk of accident was complex, differing according to sex and the type of accident under consideration. Women with higher childhood IQ were more likely than those with lower scores to report having had an accident(s) while at work, in a vehicle, engaging in sports, and in unspecified circumstances. Adjustment for markers of socioeconomic position weakened or eliminated some of these relations, but higher childhood IQ remained associated with increased risk of sporting and unspecified accidents. Men with higher childhood IQ scores were less likely than those with lower scores to report accidents at work, but more likely to report accidents at home, playing sports or in unspecified circumstances. After adjustment for socioeconomic circumstances, higher childhood IQ in men remained associated with an increased risk of accidents at home or in unspecified circumstances. The relationship between childhood mental ability and accidents in adulthood is complex. As in other studies, socioeconomic position has an inconsistent relationship with non-fatal accident type.

  6. Pollution risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Garorim Bay of Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2015-11-15

    This study presents a model to assess the oil spill risk in Garorim Bay in Korea, where large-scale oil spill accidents frequently occur. The oil spill risk assessment is carried out by using two factors: 1) The impact probability of the oil spill, and 2) the first impact time of the oil that has been spilt. The risk assessment is conducted for environmentally sensitive areas, such as the coastline and aquaculture farms in the Garorim Bay area. Finally, Garorim Bay is divided into six subareas, and the risks of each subarea are compared with one another to identify the subarea that is most vulnerable to an oil spill accident. These results represent an objective and comprehensive oil spill risk level for a specific region. The prediction of the oil spill spread is based on real-time sea conditions and can be improved by integrating our results, especially when sea conditions are rapidly changing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Minimizing Accidents and Risks in High Adventure Outdoor Pursuits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meier, Joel

    The fundamental dilemma in adventure programming is eliminating unreasonable risks to participants without also reducing levels of excitement, challenge, and stress. Most accidents are caused by a combination of unsafe conditions, unsafe acts, and error judgments. The best and only way to minimize critical human error in adventure programs is…

  8. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

  9. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  10. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  11. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-03-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Radiation Doses and Associated Risk From the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Tetsuo

    2017-03-01

    The magnitude of dose due to the Fukushima Daiichi Accident was estimated by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2013 report published in April 2014. Following this, the UNSCEAR white paper, which comprises a digest of new information for the 2013 Fukushima report, was published in October 2015. Another comprehensive report on radiation dose due to the accident is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on the Fukushima Daiichi Accident published in August 2015. Although the UNSCEAR and IAEA publications well summarize doses received by residents, they review only literature published before the end of December 2014 and the end of March 2015, respectively. However, some studies on dose estimation have been published since then. In addition, the UNSCEAR 2013 report states it was likely that some overestimation had been introduced generally by the methodology used by the Committee. For example, effects of decontamination were not considered in the lifetime external dose estimated. Decontamination is in progress for most living areas in Fukushima Prefecture, which could reduce long-term external dose to residents. This article mainly reviews recent English language articles that may add new information to the UNSCEAR and IAEA publications. Generally, recent articles suggest lower doses than those presented by the UNSCEAR 2013 report.

  13. [Accidents and violence in childhood and adolescence: risk and protective factors].

    PubMed

    Martins, Christine Baccarat de Godoy

    2013-01-01

    Singled out by statistics as the third leading cause of mortality in our country, external causes (accidents and violence) entail a great impact with economic, social and emotional rebound. Knowing the factors related to the event is essential, because it allows identifying and breaking the web that determines morbidity and mortality from external causes. The study aims to analyze the existing publications on the factors associated with accidents and violence, in order to provide theoretical support for professionals in their practices. This is a bibliographical study of the Liliacs, Medline and Scielo databanks. The knowledge of the risk and protection factors discussed in the present study enables subsidize the practice of social actors engaged in transforming the conditions that lead to accidents and violence.

  14. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  15. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

    1991-01-01

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

  16. Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

    2006-09-01

    Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

  17. Screening Methodologies to Support Risk and Technology ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Clean Air Act establishes a two-stage regulatory process for addressing emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from stationary sources. In the first stage, the Act requires the EPA to develop technology-based standards for categories of industrial sources. We have largely completed the required “Maximum Achievable Control Technology” (MACT) standards. In the second stage of the regulatory process, EPA must review each MACT standard at least every eight years and revise them as necessary, “taking into account developments in practices, processes and control technologies.” We call this requirement the “technology review.” EPA is also required to complete a one-time assessment of the health and environmental risks that remain after sources come into compliance with MACT. This residual risk review also must be done within 8 years of setting the initial MACT standard. If additional risk reductions are necessary to protect public health with an ample margin of safety or to prevent adverse environmental effects, EPA must develop standards to address these remaining risks. Because the risk review is an important component of the RTR process, EPA is seeking SAB input on the scientific credibility of specific enhancements made to our risk assessment methodologies, particularly with respect to screening methodologies, since the last SAB review was completed in 2010. These enhancements to our risk methodologies are outlined in the document title

  18. Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M. E.; Kaplan, L.

    1980-01-01

    The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

  19. Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

    2012-04-01

    . The criterial evaluation is used as a ranking system in order to establish the priorities for the detailed risk assessment. This criterial analysis stage is necessary because the total number of installations and sections on a site can be quite large. As not all installations and sections on a site contribute significantly to the risk of a major accident occurring, it is not efficient to include all installations and sections in the detailed risk assessment, which can be time and resource consuming. The selected installations are then taken into consideration in the detailed risk assessment, which is the third step of the systematic risk assessment methodology. Following this step, conclusions can be drawn related to the overall risk characteristics of the site. The proposed methodology can as such be successfully applied to the assessment of risk related to critical infrastructure elements falling under the energy sector of Critical Infrastructure, mainly the sub-sectors oil and gas. Key words: Systematic risk assessment, criterial analysis, energy sector critical infrastructure elements

  20. Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain: application and evaluation of a risk management framework.

    PubMed

    Salmon, P; Williamson, A; Lenné, M; Mitsopoulos-Rubens, E; Rudin-Brown, C M

    2010-08-01

    Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Accidents represent a significant problem within the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an evaluation of a risk management framework that can be used to understand such accidents and to inform the development of accident countermeasures and mitigation strategies for the led outdoor activity domain.

  1. Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

    2013-08-01

    To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on

  2. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    PubMed Central

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  3. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

    PubMed

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-04-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions.

  4. Does Metformin Reduce Cancer Risks? Methodologic Considerations.

    PubMed

    Golozar, Asieh; Liu, Shuiqing; Lin, Joeseph A; Peairs, Kimberly; Yeh, Hsin-Chieh

    2016-01-01

    The substantial burden of cancer and diabetes and the association between the two conditions has been a motivation for researchers to look for targeted strategies that can simultaneously affect both diseases and reduce their overlapping burden. In the absence of randomized clinical trials, researchers have taken advantage of the availability and richness of administrative databases and electronic medical records to investigate the effects of drugs on cancer risk among diabetic individuals. The majority of these studies suggest that metformin could potentially reduce cancer risk. However, the validity of this purported reduction in cancer risk is limited by several methodological flaws either in the study design or in the analysis. Whether metformin use decreases cancer risk relies heavily on the availability of valid data sources with complete information on confounders, accurate assessment of drug use, appropriate study design, and robust analytical techniques. The majority of the observational studies assessing the association between metformin and cancer risk suffer from methodological shortcomings and efforts to address these issues have been incomplete. Future investigations on the association between metformin and cancer risk should clearly address the methodological issues due to confounding by indication, prevalent user bias, and time-related biases. Although the proposed strategies do not guarantee a bias-free estimate for the association between metformin and cancer, they will reduce synthesis of and reporting of erroneous results.

  5. Accident patterns for construction-related workers: a cluster analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Chia-Wen; Tyan, Yaw-Yauan

    2012-01-01

    The construction industry has been identified as one of the most hazardous industries. The risk of constructionrelated workers is far greater than that in a manufacturing based industry. However, some steps can be taken to reduce worker risk through effective injury prevention strategies. In this article, k-means clustering methodology is employed in specifying the factors related to different worker types and in identifying the patterns of industrial occupational accidents. Accident reports during the period 1998 to 2008 are extracted from case reports of the Northern Region Inspection Office of the Council of Labor Affairs of Taiwan. The results show that the cluster analysis can indicate some patterns of occupational injuries in the construction industry. Inspection plans should be proposed according to the type of construction-related workers. The findings provide a direction for more effective inspection strategies and injury prevention programs.

  6. Accident patterns for construction-related workers: a cluster analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Chia-Wen; Tyan, Yaw-Yauan

    2011-12-01

    The construction industry has been identified as one of the most hazardous industries. The risk of constructionrelated workers is far greater than that in a manufacturing based industry. However, some steps can be taken to reduce worker risk through effective injury prevention strategies. In this article, k-means clustering methodology is employed in specifying the factors related to different worker types and in identifying the patterns of industrial occupational accidents. Accident reports during the period 1998 to 2008 are extracted from case reports of the Northern Region Inspection Office of the Council of Labor Affairs of Taiwan. The results show that the cluster analysis can indicate some patterns of occupational injuries in the construction industry. Inspection plans should be proposed according to the type of construction-related workers. The findings provide a direction for more effective inspection strategies and injury prevention programs.

  7. Comorbidity and radiation: methodological aspects of health assessment of persons exposed to the Chornobyl accident factors.

    PubMed

    Nosach, O V

    2013-01-01

    Comorbidity is one of the most challenging problems of a modern medicine. In a population exposed to the factors of the Chornobyl accident there is an obvious increase in the number of diseases occurring simultaneously against the background of rising prevalence of different classes of chronic medical nosology. The scientific data analysis are presented on the methodological approaches that can be used to create a specialized system for integrated assessment of the health of patients with comorbid disorders. Developing such a system it should be taken into account the trends of changes in the incidence, prevalence and structure of chronic disease, factors and regularities of comorbid disease in the cohorts of Chornobyl accident clean-up workers, evacuees and dwellers of contaminated territories. The system should provide a non-random selection of combinations (clusters) of the most common diseases with serious consequences for the survivors. Nosach O. V., 2013.

  8. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Q methodology, risk training and quality management.

    PubMed

    McKeown, M; Hinks, M; Stowell-Smith, M; Mercer, D; Forster, J

    1999-01-01

    The results of a Q methodological study of professional understandings of the notion of risk in mental health services within the UK are discussed in relation to the relevance for staff training and quality assurance. The study attempted to access the diversity of understandings of risk issues amongst a multi-professional group of staff (n = 60) attending inter-agency risk training workshops in 1998. Q methodology is presented as both an appropriate means for such inquiry and as a novel experiential technique for training purposes. A tentative argument is advanced that the qualitative accounts generated by Q research could assist in systematic reviews of quality, complementing the singularly quantitative approaches typically represented in the audit process.

  10. Bicycle accidents among teenagers

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-10-01

    The report shows that knowledge of traffic rules does not contribute to reduce the accident risk, or injury risk of young cyclists. Running red lights and cycling in the wrong direction in one-way traffic increase accident and injury risk. Using cycl...

  11. A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance.

    PubMed

    MacNab, Ying C

    2003-01-01

    This article presents a recent study which applies Bayesian hierarchical methodology to model and analyse accident and injury surveillance data. A hierarchical Poisson random effects spatio-temporal model is introduced and an analysis of inter-regional variations and regional trends in hospitalisations due to motor vehicle accident injuries to boys aged 0-24 in the province of British Columbia, Canada, is presented. The objective of this article is to illustrate how the modelling technique can be implemented as part of an accident and injury surveillance and prevention system where transportation and/or health authorities may routinely examine accidents, injuries, and hospitalisations to target high-risk regions for prevention programs, to evaluate prevention strategies, and to assist in health planning and resource allocation. The innovation of the methodology is its ability to uncover and highlight important underlying structure of the data. Between 1987 and 1996, British Columbia hospital separation registry registered 10,599 motor vehicle traffic injury related hospitalisations among boys aged 0-24 who resided in British Columbia, of which majority (89%) of the injuries occurred to boys aged 15-24. The injuries were aggregated by three age groups (0-4, 5-14, and 15-24), 20 health regions (based of place-of-residence), and 10 calendar years (1987 to 1996) and the corresponding mid-year population estimates were used as 'at risk' population. An empirical Bayes inference technique using penalised quasi-likelihood estimation was implemented to model both rates and counts, with spline smoothing accommodating non-linear temporal effects. The results show that (a) crude rates and ratios at health region level are unstable, (b) the models with spline smoothing enable us to explore possible shapes of injury trends at both the provincial level and the regional level, and (c) the fitted models provide a wealth of information about the patterns (both over space and time

  12. Accidents in Coal Mining from Perspective of Risk Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khamidullina, E. A.; Timofeeva, S. S.; Smirnov, G. I.

    2017-11-01

    Introduction. The indicators of the safety system quality in the technosphere include risk indicators. The purpose of this work is to assess the social risk of coal mining since coal mining is associated with specific working conditions, and any emergency situation immediately jeopardizes thelives of many people at the same time. Methods. The work is based on the analysis of statistical information. Results and discussion. The F/N curve of coal mining for the 70-year period (1943-2012) was constructed, and the normative values of the social risk of Russia and other industrialized countries were discussed. Judging by the F/N diagram, only the frequency of accidents with a large number of deaths can correspond to the normative level indicating an exceptionally high level of coal mining risk.

  13. Latent profile analysis of lifestyle characteristics and health risk behaviors among Koreans who have completed industrial accident care.

    PubMed

    Choi, Wan-Suk; Moon, Ok-Kon; Yeum, Dong-Moon

    2017-10-07

    This study investigated the characteristics and health behavior profiles of 1,803 workers who had experienced industrial accidents. Average weekly exercise days, average number of cigarettes smoked per day, average daily sleep duration, and number of days of alcohol consumption were selected to investigate health behavior profiles. Specifically, latent profile analysis was applied to identify the health behavior profiles of people who had completed industrial accident care; the latent classes were the health-conscious type (n=240), the potential-risk type (n=850), and the high-risk type (n=713). Comparison of the health-conscious and potential-risk types indicated that younger subjects, the employed, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the potential-risk type. Comparison of the health-conscious and high-risk types revealed that males, younger subjects, the employed, those without chronic illnesses, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the high-risk type. The results suggest that industrial accident victims who have completed accident care have different health behaviors and it is necessary to improve health promotion based on health type characteristics.

  14. Decision-problem state analysis methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dieterly, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

  15. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affectmore » reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).« less

  16. Thyroid neoplasia risk is increased nearly 30 years after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Tronko, Mykola; Brenner, Alina V; Bogdanova, Tetiana; Shpak, Victor; Oliynyk, Valeriy; Cahoon, Elizabeth K; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Little, Mark P; Tereshchenko, Valeriy; Zamotayeva, Galyna; Terekhova, Galyna; Zurnadzhi, Lyudmila; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    2017-10-15

    To evaluate risk of thyroid neoplasia nearly 30 years following exposure to radioactive iodine (I-131) from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident, we conducted a fifth cycle of thyroid screening of the Ukrainian-American cohort during 2012-2015, following four previous screening cycles started in 1998. We identified 47 thyroid cancers (TC) and 33 follicular adenomas (FA) among 10,073 individuals who were <18 years at the time of the accident and had a mean I-131 dose of 0.62 Gy. We found a significant I-131 dose response for both TC and FA, with an excess odd ratio per Gy of 1.36 (95% CI: 0.39-4.15) and 2.03 (95% CI: 0.55-6.69), respectively. The excess risk of malignant and benign thyroid neoplasia persists nearly three decades after exposure and underscores the importance of continued follow-up of this cohort to characterize long-term pattern of I-131 risk. © 2017 UICC.

  17. Risk Assessment Methodology for Hazardous Waste Management (1998)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    A methodology is described for systematically assessing and comparing the risks to human health and the environment of hazardous waste management alternatives. The methodology selects and links appropriate models and techniques for performing the process.

  18. Exposure to static magnetic fields and risk of accidents among a cohort of workers from a medical imaging device manufacturing facility.

    PubMed

    Bongers, Suzan; Slottje, Pauline; Portengen, Lützen; Kromhout, Hans

    2016-05-01

    To study the association between occupational MRI-related static magnetic fields (SMF) exposure and the occurrence of accidents. Recent and career SMF exposure was assessed by linking a retrospective job exposure matrix to payroll based job histories, for a cohort of (former) workers of an imaging device manufacturing facility in the Netherlands. Occurrence of accidents was collected through an online questionnaire. Self-reported injuries due to accidents in the past 12 months, and the first (near) traffic accident while commuting to work and from work were analyzed with logistic regression and discrete-time survival analyses, respectively. High recent SMF exposure was associated with an increased risk of accidents leading to injuries [odds ratio (OR) 4.16]. For high recent and career SMF exposure, an increased risk was observed for accidents resulting in physician-treated injuries (OR 5.78 and 2.79, respectively) and an increased lifetime risk of (near) accidents during commute to work (hazard ratios 2.49 and 2.45, respectively), but not from work. We found an association between MRI-related occupational SMF exposure and an increased risk of accidents leading to injury, and for commute-related (near) accidents during the commute from home to work. Further research into health effects of (long-term) SMF exposure is warranted to corroborate our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. A Policy Intervention Study to Identify High-Risk Groups to Prevent Industrial Accidents in Republic of Korea.

    PubMed

    Yi, Kwan Hyung; Lee, Seung Soo

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study is to identify high-risk groups for industrial accidents by setting up 2003 as the base year and conducting an in-depth analysis of the trends of major industrial accident indexes the index of industrial accident rate, the index of occupational injury rate, the index of occupational illness and disease rate per 10,000 people, and the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people for the past 10 years. This study selected industrial accident victims, who died or received more than 4 days of medical care benefits, due to occupational accidents and diseases occurring at workplaces, subject to the Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance Act, as the study population. According to the trends of four major indexes by workplace characteristics, the whole industry has shown a decreasing tendency in all four major indexes since the base year (2003); as of 2012, the index of industrial accident rate was 67, while the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people was 59. The manufacturing industry, age over 50 years and workplaces with more than 50 employees showed a high severity level of occupational accidents. Male workers showed a higher severity level of occupational accidents than female workers. The employment period of < 3 years and newly hired workers with a relatively shorter working period are likely to have more occupational accidents than others. Overall, an industrial accident prevention policy must be established by concentrating all available resources and capacities of these high-risk groups.

  20. [Analysis of accidents at work in building yards: correlation between risk and law defaults in yards of Palermo].

    PubMed

    Arcadipane, C; Verso, M G; Schillaci, S; Picciotto, D

    2007-01-01

    In the last years the building firm underwent real boom for investments and workers but not for safety measures. In the building sector there is a great accidents risks for falls from the top. The aim of present study is to analyze trend of accidents at work in building yards according to INAIL DATA and we will identify causes and risks then we will correlate these risks with frequent law defaults that we noticed in the province of Palermo. At the end we will value possible preventive measures to avoid this phenomenon. DATA INAIL of period 2001-2005 about building sector show us a reduction of denounced accidents at work but this phenomenon is changeable. Palermo is the first sicilian province for accidents at work although the number of denounced accidents (from 2001 to 2005) is decreasing while this number in Catania is increasing, CPT of Palermo gave us data (from 2004 to 2006) about inspections in building yards. Our study interests 609 yards and 1827 work stages. We noticed the most number of rests in civil yards.

  1. Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents Related to Sleepiness at the Wheel: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Bioulac, Stéphanie; Franchi, Jean-Arthur Micoulaud; Arnaud, Mickael; Sagaspe, Patricia; Moore, Nicholas; Salvo, Francesco; Philip, Pierre

    2017-10-01

    Sleepiness at the wheel is widely believed to be a cause of motor vehicle accidents. Nevertheless, a systematic review of studies investigating this relationship has not yet been published. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between sleepiness at the wheel and motor vehicle accidents. A systematic review was performed using Medline, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science. The outcome measure of interest was motor vehicle accident defined as involving four- or two-wheeled vehicles in road traffic, professional and nonprofessional drivers, with or without objective consequences. The exposure was sleepiness at the wheel defined as self-reported sleepiness at the wheel. Studies were included if they provided adjusted risk estimates of motor vehicle accidents related to sleepiness at the wheel. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was quantified using Q statistics and the I2 index. The potential causes of heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regressions. Ten cross-sectional studies (51,520 participants), six case-control studies (4904 participants), and one cohort study (13,674 participants) were included. Sleepiness at the wheel was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (pooled OR 2.51 [95% CI 1.87; 3.39]). A significant heterogeneity was found between the individual risk estimates (Q = 93.21; I2 = 83%). Sleepiness at the wheel increases the risk of motor vehicle accidents and should be considered when investigating fitness to drive. Further studies are required to explore the nature of this relationship. PROSPERO 2015 CRD42015024805. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  3. Increased risk of traffic accidents in subjects with latent toxoplasmosis: a retrospective case-control study

    PubMed Central

    Flegr, Jaroslav; Havlícek, Jan; Kodym, Petr; Malý, Marek; Smahel, Zbyněk

    2002-01-01

    Background The parasite Toxoplasma gondii infects 30–60% of humans worldwide. Latent toxoplasmosis, i.e., the life-long presence of Toxoplasma cysts in neural and muscular tissues, leads to prolongation of reaction times in infected subjects. It is not known, however, whether the changes observed in the laboratory influence the performance of subjects in real-life situations. Methods The seroprevalence of latent toxoplasmosis in subjects involved in traffic accidents (N = 146) and in the general population living in the same area (N = 446) was compared by a Mantel-Haenszel test for age-stratified data. Correlation between relative risk of traffic accidents and level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre was evaluated with the Cochran-Armitage test for trends. Results A higher seroprevalence was found in the traffic accident set than in the general population (Chi2MH = 21.45, p < 0.0001). The value of the odds ratio (OR) suggests that subjects with latent toxoplasmosis had a 2.65 (C.I.95= 1.76–4.01) times higher risk of an accident than the toxoplasmosis-negative subjects. The OR significantly increased with level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre (p < 0.0001), being low (OR = 1.86, C.I.95 = 1.14–3.03) for the 99 subjects with low antibody titres (8 and 16), higher (OR = 4.78, C.I.95 = 2.39–9.59) for the 37 subjects with moderate titres (32 and 64), and very high (OR = 16.03, C.I.95 = 1.89–135.66) for the 6 subjects with titres higher than 64. Conclusion The subjects with latent toxoplasmosis have significantly increased risk of traffic accidents than the noninfected subjects. Relative risk of traffic accidents decreases with the duration of infection. These results suggest that 'asymptomatic' acquired toxoplasmosis might in fact represent a serious and highly underestimated public health problem, as well as an economic problem. PMID:12095427

  4. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management-global radiocontamination and information disaster.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-06-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the "Fukushima Health Management Survey Project" for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management.

  5. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident and Comprehensive Health Risk Management—Global Radiocontamination and Information Disaster

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the “Fukushima Health Management Survey Project” for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management. PMID:25425958

  6. Powered two-wheelers road accidents and their risk perception in dense urban areas: case of Paris.

    PubMed

    Maestracci, Marion; Prochasson, François; Geffroy, Aurélie; Peccoud, Florian

    2012-11-01

    For a few years, the use of powered two-wheelers has taken off in Paris. It then became critical for the City of Paris to understand both the mechanisms leading to traffic accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers user and the perception of their risk when riding in dense urban areas. In so doing, two studies were carried out along similar lines so that their results could be compared. The first study focused on the perception of situations where accidents are most likely to occur. The second one was an analysis of police reports of accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers and the drawing-up of prototypical accident scenarios. Comparing the results of the two studies revealed a gap between perceived and objective risks of these users. In fact, they rather fear the situations during which a car driver is changing lanes, while accidents involving them occur more often when a car driver turns (right, left or U). Knowledge of this dissonance in terms of awareness of road risks for powered two-wheelers and equally, other road users, will give the City of Paris food for thought. The promising results of this study have encouraged the City of Paris to extend it to other types of users, such as cyclists or elderly pedestrians. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  8. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    PubMed

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  9. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    PubMed

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A framework for a critical assessment of the quality of epidemiological studies of driver health and accident risk.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2011-11-01

    A large number of studies have tried to assess how various aspects of driver health influence driver involvement in accidents. The objective of this paper is to provide a framework for a critical assessment of the quality these studies from a methodological point of view. Examples are given of how various sources of bias and confounding can produce study findings that are highly misleading. Ten potential sources of error and bias in epidemiological studies of the contribution of driver health impairments to road accidents are discussed: (1) Poor description of the medical conditions whose effects are studied (measurement error). (2) Inadequate control for the effects of exposure on accident rate. (3) Sampling endogeneity with respect to assessment for fitness to drive (outcome-based sampling; self-selection bias). (4) Combined exposure to several risk factors. (5) Poor control for potentially confounding factors. (6) Failure to specify potentially moderating factors (interaction effects). (7) Failure to consider a severity gradient with respect to the effect of health impairments. (8) Failure to specify the compliance of drivers with medical treatments or treatment effectiveness. (9) No data on the population prevalence of various health conditions. (10) The use of multiple study approaches and methods making the comparison and synthesis of findings difficult. Examples are given of how all these items may influence the findings of a single study or make synthesising findings from multiple studies difficult. A checklist for assessing study quality is provided. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. With power comes responsibility: motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio in relation to accident risk.

    PubMed

    Mattsson, Markus; Summala, Heikki

    2010-02-01

    Current European legislation allows the EU member states to restrict the maximum power output of motorcycles to 74 kW even though evidence supporting the limit is scarce and has produced mixed results-perhaps because motorcycle performance has been measured by engine displacement, not engine power, in most of the previous studies. This study investigates the relationship of motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio to risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes in Finland. The fatality rate (number of fatal accidents/number of registered motorbikes) for riders of different ages riding bikes belonging to different power and power-to-weight ratio classes was examined using a comprehensive in-depth database. Data on nonfatal accidents were acquired from a Web questionnaire (N = 2708), which also served as a basis for estimating riders' annual mileage. Mileage data allowed the calculation of accident risk per kilometer ridden for bikes differing in power and power-to-weight ratio. The fatality risk per number of registered motorcycles and per kilometer ridden increases both with power and power-to-weight ratio, independently of rider's age. No relationship between performance and risk of a less severe crash was found. The pre-accident speed of the most powerful bikes was 20 km/h or more over the speed limit in a large proportion of the fatal accidents (odds ratio = 4.8 for > 75 kW motorbikes; odds ratio = 6.2 for > 0.3 kW/kg motorbikes). The risk of being involved in a fatal crash is higher among the riders of powerful motorcycles. However, it is not clear whether the results are related to the riding habits of the riders that choose the most powerful bikes available or whether the high risk is due to the properties of the bikes themselves. Therefore, further research is needed before considering legal limits on motorcycle performance.

  12. Posture control and the risk of industrial accident: a stabilographic investigation in a naval shipyard.

    PubMed

    Moll van Charante, A W; Snijders, C J; Mulder, P G

    1991-10-01

    In a previous case-control study on the effect of impaired perceptual acuity on the risk of industrial injuries at a naval shipyard, three factors which might influence the perception and processing of sensory impressions--alcohol consumption, hearing loss exceeding 20 decibels (dB) and exposure to noise exceeding 82 dB(A)--were found to contribute to the risk of injury. According to recent reports, these factors can all lead to impaired posture control. Because in general about 40% of all accidents are associated with falling, tripping, slipping and the like, a supplementary study has been carried out to unravel possible confounding effects of posture control on these three risk factors. Cases (who had suffered two or more accidents during the preceding 4 years) and controls (who had been accident-free in the same period) were compared as regards posture control measured during silence or noise. No significant difference in posture control was found between cases and controls, either in silence or during exposure to heavy noise.

  13. 45 CFR 153.510 - Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology. 153.510 Section 153.510 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS....510 Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology. (a) General requirement. A QHP issuer must...

  14. Recommendations for benefit-risk assessment methodologies and visual representations.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Diana; Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Goginsky, Alesia; Chan, Edmond; Downey, Gerald F; Hallgreen, Christine E; Hockley, Kimberley S; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Lieftucht, Alfons; Metcalf, Marilyn A; Noel, Rebecca A; Phillips, Lawrence D; Ashby, Deborah; Micaleff, Alain

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit-risk assessment. Eight case studies based on the benefit-risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit-risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies. A general pathway through the case studies was evident, with various classes of methodologies having roles to play at different stages. Descriptive and quantitative frameworks were widely used throughout to structure problems, with other methods such as metrics, estimation techniques and elicitation techniques providing ways to incorporate technical or numerical data from various sources. Similarly, tree diagrams and effects tables were universally adopted, with other visualisations available to suit specific methodologies or tasks as required. Every assessment was found to follow five broad stages: (i) Planning, (ii) Evidence gathering and data preparation, (iii) Analysis, (iv) Exploration and (v) Conclusion and dissemination. Adopting formal, structured approaches to benefit-risk assessment was feasible in real-world problems and facilitated clear, transparent decision-making. Prior to this work, no extensive practical application and appraisal of methodologies had been conducted using real-world case examples, leaving users with limited knowledge of their usefulness in the real world. The practical guidance provided here takes us one step closer to a harmonised approach to benefit-risk assessment from multiple perspectives. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. [Spatial analysis of road traffic accidents with fatalities in Spain, 2008-2011].

    PubMed

    Gómez-Barroso, Diana; López-Cuadrado, Teresa; Llácer, Alicia; Palmera Suárez, Rocío; Fernández-Cuenca, Rafael

    2015-09-01

    To estimate the areas of greatest density of road traffic accidents with fatalities at 24 hours per km(2)/year in Spain from 2008 to 2011, using a geographic information system. Accidents were geocodified using the road and kilometer points where they occurred. The average nearest neighbor was calculated to detect possible clusters and to obtain the bandwidth for kernel density estimation. A total of 4775 accidents were analyzed, of which 73.3% occurred on conventional roads. The estimated average distance between accidents was 1,242 meters, and the average expected distance was 10,738 meters. The nearest neighbor index was 0.11, indicating that there were aggregations of accidents in space. A map showing the kernel density was obtained with a resolution of 1 km(2), which identified the areas of highest density. This methodology allowed a better approximation to locating accident risks by taking into account kilometer points. The map shows areas where there was a greater density of accidents. This could be an advantage in decision-making by the relevant authorities. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  16. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Introduction This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. Methods A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. Results As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57–63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30–8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00–2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03–3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14–9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Conclusion Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers. PMID:25494198

  17. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  18. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. Themore » research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.« less

  19. A risk assessment methodology for critical transportation infrastructure.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2002-01-01

    Infrastructure protection typifies a problem of risk assessment and management in a large-scale system. This study offers a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risks. It includes the following major considerations: (1...

  20. Risk of fatal industrial accidents and death from other external causes among asphalt workers

    PubMed Central

    Burstyn, I; Boffetta, P; Jarvholm, B; Partanen, T; Svane, O; Langard, S; Kauppinen, T; Stucker, I; Shaham, J; Heederik, D; Ahrens, W; Bergdahl, I; Cenee, S; Hooiveld, M; Randem, B; Johansen, C; Ferro, G; Kromhout, H

    2004-01-01

    Overall, no evidence was found supporting the hypothesis that asphalt workers are at increased risk of fatal industrial or road accidents. Mortality from other external causes did not increase in this population as a whole, but increased risks among short term workers deserve further attention. PMID:14691280

  1. Survivors Perceptions of Recovery following Air Medical Transport Accidents.

    PubMed

    Jaynes, Cathy L; Valdez, Anna; Hamilton, Megan; Haugen, Krista; Henry, Colin; Jones, Pat; Werman, Howard A; White, Lynn J

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective: Air medical transport (AMT) teams play an essential role in the care of the critically ill and injured. Their work, however, is not without risk. Since the inception of the industry numerous AMT accidents have been reported. The objective of this research is to gain a better understanding of the post-accident sequelae for professionals who have survived AMT accidents. The hope is that this understanding will empower the industry to better support survivors and plan for the contingencies of post-accident recovery. Methods: Qualitative methods were used to explore the experience of flight crew members who have survived an AMT accident. "Accident" was defined using criteria established by the National Transportation Safety Board. Traditional focus group methodology explored the survivors' experiences following the accident. Results: Seven survivors participated in the focus group. Content analysis revealed themes in four major domains that described the experience of survivors: Physical, Psychological, Relational and Financial. Across the themes survivors reported that industry and company response varied greatly, ranging from generous support, understanding and action to make safety improvements, to little response or action and lack of attention to survivor needs. Conclusion: Planning for AMT post-accident response was identified to be lacking in scope and quality. More focused efforts are needed to assist and support the survivors as they regain both their personal and professional lives following the accident. This planning should include all stakeholders in safe transport; the individual crewmember, air medical transport companies, and the industry at large.

  2. Lifestyle and accidents among young drivers.

    PubMed

    Gregersen, N P; Berg, H Y

    1994-06-01

    This study covers the lifestyle component of the problems related to young drivers' accident risk. The purpose of the study is to measure the relationship between lifestyle and accident risk, and to identify specific high-risk and low-risk groups. Lifestyle is measured through a questionnaire, where 20-year-olds describe themselves and how often they deal with a large number of different activities, like sports, music, movies, reading, cars and driving, political engagement, etc. They also report their involvement in traffic accidents. With a principal component analysis followed by a cluster analysis, lifestyle profiles are defined. These profiles are finally correlated to accidents, which makes it possible to define high-risk and low-risk groups. The cluster analysis defined 15 clusters including four high-risk groups with an average overrisk of 150% and two low-risk groups with an average underrisk of 75%. The results are discussed from two perspectives. The first is the importance of theoretical understanding of the contribution of lifestyle factors to young drivers' high accident risk. The second is how the findings could be used in practical road safety measures, like education, campaigns, etc.

  3. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    PubMed

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. A synthesis of studies of access point density as a risk factor for road accidents.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2017-10-01

    Studies of the relationship between access point density (number of access points, or driveways, per kilometre of road) and accident frequency or rate (number of accidents per unit of exposure) have consistently found that accident rate increases when access point density increases. This paper presents a formal synthesis of the findings of these studies. It was found that the addition of one access point per kilometre of road is associated with an increase of 4% in the expected number of accidents, controlling for traffic volume. Although studies consistently indicate an increase in accident rate as access point density increases, the size of the increase varies substantially between studies. In addition to reviewing studies of access point density as a risk factor, the paper discusses some issues related to formally synthesising regression coefficients by applying the inverse-variance method of meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D

    2015-04-01

    Accidents in twin-engine aircraft carry a higher risk of fatality compared with single engine aircraft and constitute 9% of all general aviation accidents. The different flight profile (higher airspeed, service ceiling, increased fuel load, and aircraft yaw in engine failure) may make comparable studies on single-engine aircraft accident causes less relevant. The objective of this study was to identify the accident causes for non-commercial operations in twin engine aircraft. A NTSB accident database query for accidents in twin piston engine airplanes of 4-8 seat capacity with a maximum certified weight of 3000-8000lbs. operating under 14CFR Part 91 for the period spanning 2002 and 2012 returned 376 accidents. Accident causes and contributing factors were as per the NTSB final report categories. Total annual flight hour data for the twin engine piston aircraft fleet were obtained from the FAA. Statistical analyses employed Chi Square, Fisher's Exact and logistic regression analysis. Neither the combined fatal/non-fatal accident nor the fatal accident rate declined over the period spanning 2002-2012. Under visual weather conditions, the largest number, n=27, (27%) of fatal accidents was attributed to malfunction with a failure to follow single engine procedures representing the most common contributing factor. In degraded visibility, poor instrument approach procedures resulted in the greatest proportion of fatal crashes. Encountering thunderstorms was the most lethal of all accident causes with all occupants sustaining fatal injuries. At night, a failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance was the most common accident cause leading to 36% of fatal crashes. The results of logistic regression showed that operations at night (OR 3.7), off airport landings (OR 14.8) and post-impact fire (OR 7.2) all carried an excess risk of a fatal flight. This study indicates training areas that should receive increased emphasis for twin-engine training/recency. First, increased

  6. The dynamic nature of risk perceptions after a fatal transit accident.

    PubMed

    Wernstedt, Kris; Murray-Tuite, Pamela

    2015-03-01

    In 2009, two trains of Washington, DC's Metrorail system collided, resulting in nine deaths and 50 serious injuries. Based on a multiwave survey of Metrorail users in the months after the crash, this article reports how the accident appears to have (1) changed over time the tradeoffs among safety, speed, frequency of service, cost, and reliability that the transit users stated they were willing to make in the postaccident period and (2) altered transit users' concerns about safety as a function of time and distance from the accident site. We employ conditional logit models to examine tradeoffs among stated preferences for system performance measures after the accident, as well as the influence that respondent characteristics of transit use, location, income, age, and gender have on these preference tradeoffs. As expected, respondents appear averse to longer headways between trains, longer travel durations, higher travel costs, a higher number of late trains, and a higher number of fatalities. The models also show evidence of higher aversion to fatalities from transit system operation among females compared to males. In addition, respondents less experienced with Metrorail travel and those with lower household incomes show higher aversion to fatalities, and this aversion increases as a subject's psychological distance from the accident site decreases. Contrary to expectations shaped by previous studies, aversion to fatalities appears to have increased between the early months after the accident and the end of the survey period, and the expected relationship between age and aversion to fatalities is not statistically significant. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. [Risk factors associated with work-related accidents in the construction industry in the Valley of Mexico].

    PubMed

    Sarmiento-Salinas, Rodrigo; López-Rojas, Pablo; Marín-Cotoñieto, Irma Araceli; Godínez-Rocha, Arturo; Haro-García, Luis; Salinas-Tovar, Santiago

    2004-01-01

    Our aim was to describe construction-industry, work-related accident prevalence in, associated factors in, and potential impact on affiliated workers of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, IMSS) in the Valley of Mexico. Prevalent cases in a retrospective case-control design. These include 385 construction-industry workers who were found to have construction work-related accidents in 2001. Controls comprised 385 active construction-industry workers without work-related accident background paired by gender, workplace, and worksite. Work-related accident prevalence in construction workers was 5.5%; most important risk factors and etiology fraction (Ef) included the following: age 16-20 years odds ratio, OR = 1.58, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.40-10.7, p = 0.001, Ef 0.36; eventual insurance, OR = 3.7, 95% CI, 2.16-26.45, p = 0.001), Ef, 0.72, and no training for job, OR = 5.3, 95% CI, 4.9-69.2, p = 0.01), Ef: 0.81. Variables not showing significance were included salary, work shift, and workday. Work-related accident prevalence maintains its preponderance in the Valley of Mexico construction industry; identified risk factors are potentially modifiable, among which job training acquires unquestionable relevance.

  8. Accident risk associated with smartphone addiction: A study on university students in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hye-Jin; Min, Jin-Young; Kim, Hyun-Jin; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2017-12-01

    Background and aims The smartphone is one of the most popular devices, with the average smartphone usage at 162 min/day and the average length of phone usage at 15.79 hr/week. Although significant concerns have been made about the health effects of smartphone addiction, the relationship between smartphone addiction and accidents has rarely been studied. We examined the association between smartphone addiction and accidents among South Korean university students. Methods A total of 608 college students completed an online survey that included their experience of accidents (total number; traffic accidents; falls/slips; bumps/collisions; being trapped in the subway, impalement, cuts, and exit wounds; and burns or electric shocks), their use of smartphone, the type of smartphone content they most frequently used, and other variables of interests. Smartphone addiction was estimated using Smartphone Addiction Proneness Scale, a standardized measure developed by the National Institution in Korea. Results Compared with normal users, participants who were addicted to smartphones were more likely to have experienced any accidents (OR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.26-2.86), falling from height/slipping (OR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.10-3.91), and bumps/collisions (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.16-2.87). The proportion of participants who used their smartphones mainly for entertainment was significantly high in both the accident (38.76%) and smartphone addiction (36.40%) groups. Discussion and conclusions We suggest that smartphone addiction was significantly associated with total accident, falling/slipping, and bumps/collisions. This finding highlighted the need for increased awareness of the risk of accidents with smartphone addiction.

  9. Vessel traffic safety in busy waterways: A case study of accidents in western shenzhen port.

    PubMed

    Mou, J M; Chen, P F; He, Y X; Yip, Tsz Leung; Li, W H; Tang, J; Zhang, H Z

    2016-08-03

    Throughout the world, busy waterways near large ports witness heavy vessel traffic in recent decades. The waterways are characterized by high risk in terms of loss of life, property, and pollution to environment. To facilitate maritime safety management with satisfactory efficiency and efficacy, the authors propose a framework of safety indexes to evaluate the risk level in busy waterways according to the accident severity, fatality rate and special indicators of maritime transportation. The safety indexes consist of Safety Evaluation Index (SEI) and Safety Warning Index (SWI), and are derived from the proposed risk criteria of Chinese vessel traffic. As a case study, data on vessel traffic accidents reported in the Western Shenzhen Port, South China from 1995 to 2015 are analyzed. The actual risk level of this area during the period is calculated under the framework. The implementation of the safety indexes indicate that the risk criteria and safety indexes are practicable and effective for the vessel traffic management. The methodology based on long-term accident data can significantly support the risk analysis in the macroscopic perspective for busy ports and waterways, such that SWI can act as threshold to trigger actions, while SEI can act as an indicator to measure safety status. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A methodology to quantitatively evaluate the safety of a glazing robot.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seungyeol; Yu, Seungnam; Choi, Junho; Han, Changsoo

    2011-03-01

    A new construction method using robots is spreading widely among construction sites in order to overcome labour shortages and frequent construction accidents. Along with economical efficiency, safety is a very important factor for evaluating the use of construction robots in construction sites. However, the quantitative evaluation of safety is difficult compared with that of economical efficiency. In this study, we suggested a safety evaluation methodology by defining the 'worker' and 'work conditions' as two risk factors, defining the 'worker' factor as posture load and the 'work conditions' factor as the work environment and the risk exposure time. The posture load evaluation reflects the risk of musculoskeletal disorders which can be caused by work posture and the risk of accidents which can be caused by reduced concentration. We evaluated the risk factors that may cause various accidents such as falling, colliding, capsizing, and squeezing in work environments, and evaluated the operational risk by considering worker exposure time to risky work environments. With the results of the evaluations for each factor, we calculated the general operational risk and deduced the improvement ratio in operational safety by introducing a construction robot. To verify these results, we compared the safety of the existing human manual labour and the proposed robotic labour construction methods for manipulating large glass panels. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  11. Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Budnitz, Robert J.

    If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO 2 annually, with the CO 2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO 2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelinesmore » are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO 2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of accident sequences of concern and

  12. Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

    PubMed

    Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

    2011-11-01

    Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. [Evaluation of medication risk in pregnant women: methodology of evaluation and risk management].

    PubMed

    Eléfant, E; Sainte-Croix, A

    1997-01-01

    This round table discussion was devoted to the description of the tools currently available for the evaluation of drug risks and management during pregnancy. Five topics were submitted for discussion: pre-clinical data, methodological tools, benefit/risk ratio before prescription, teratogenic or fetal risk evaluation, legal comments.

  14. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  15. Biosecurity Risk Assessment Methodology (BioRAM) v. 2.0

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    CASKEY, SUSAN; GAUDIOSO, JENNIFER; SALERNO, REYNOLDS

    Sandia National Laboratories International Biological Threat Reduction Dept (SNL/IBTR) has an ongoing mission to enhance biosecurity assessment methodologies, tools, and guise. These will aid labs seeking to implement biosecurity as advocated in the recently released WHO's Biorisk Management: Lab Biosecurity Guidance. BioRAM 2.0 is the software tool developed initially using the SNL LDRD process and designed to complement the "Laboratory Biosecurity Risk Handbook" written by Ren Salerno and Jennifer Gaudioso defining biosecurity risk assessment methodologies.

  16. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  17. Communicating With Residents About Risks Following the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Sato, Akiko; Matsui, Shiro; Goto, Aya; Kumagai, Atsushi; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Orita, Makiko; Takamura, Noboru; Kuroda, Yujiro; Ochi, Sae

    2017-03-01

    The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 posed major threats to public health. In response, medical professionals have tried to communicate the risks to residents. To investigate forms of risk communication and to share lessons learned, we reviewed medical professionals' activities in Fukushima Prefecture from the prefectural level to the individual level: public communication through Fukushima Health Management Surveys, a Yorozu ("general") health consultation project, communications of radiological conditions and health promotion in Iitate and Kawauchi villages, dialogues based on whole-body counter, and science communications through online media. The activities generally started with radiation risks, mainly through group-based discussions, but gradually shifted to face-to-face communications to address comprehensive health risks to individuals and well-being. The activities were intended to support residents' decisions and to promote public health in a participatory manner. This article highlights the need for a systematic evaluation of ongoing risk communication practices, and a wider application of successful approaches for Fukushima recovery and for better preparedness for future disasters.

  18. Balancing benefit and risk of medicines: a systematic review and classification of available methodologies.

    PubMed

    Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Hallgreen, Christine E; Wang, Nan; Callréus, Torbjörn; Genov, Georgy; Hirsch, Ian; Hobbiger, Stephen F; Hockley, Kimberley S; Luciani, Davide; Phillips, Lawrence D; Quartey, George; Sarac, Sinan B; Stoeckert, Isabelle; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Micaleff, Alain; Ashby, Deborah

    2014-07-01

    The need for formal and structured approaches for benefit-risk assessment of medicines is increasing, as is the complexity of the scientific questions addressed before making decisions on the benefit-risk balance of medicines. We systematically collected, appraised and classified available benefit-risk methodologies to facilitate and inform their future use. A systematic review of publications identified benefit-risk assessment methodologies. Methodologies were appraised on their fundamental principles, features, graphical representations, assessability and accessibility. We created a taxonomy of methodologies to facilitate understanding and choice. We identified 49 methodologies, critically appraised and classified them into four categories: frameworks, metrics, estimation techniques and utility survey techniques. Eight frameworks describe qualitative steps in benefit-risk assessment and eight quantify benefit-risk balance. Nine metric indices include threshold indices to measure either benefit or risk; health indices measure quality-of-life over time; and trade-off indices integrate benefits and risks. Six estimation techniques support benefit-risk modelling and evidence synthesis. Four utility survey techniques elicit robust value preferences from relevant stakeholders to the benefit-risk decisions. Methodologies to help benefit-risk assessments of medicines are diverse and each is associated with different limitations and strengths. There is not a 'one-size-fits-all' method, and a combination of methods may be needed for each benefit-risk assessment. The taxonomy introduced herein may guide choice of adequate methodologies. Finally, we recommend 13 of 49 methodologies for further appraisal for use in the real-life benefit-risk assessment of medicines. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. A comprehensive risk assessment framework for offsite transportation of inflammable hazardous waste.

    PubMed

    Das, Arup; Gupta, A K; Mazumder, T N

    2012-08-15

    A framework for risk assessment due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is designed based on the type of event that can be triggered from an accident of a hazardous waste carrier. The objective of this study is to design a framework for computing the risk to population associated with offsite transportation of inflammable and volatile wastes. The framework is based on traditional definition of risk and is designed for conditions where accident databases are not available. The probability based variable in risk assessment framework is substituted by a composite accident index proposed in this study. The framework computes the impacts due to a volatile cloud explosion based on TNO Multi-energy model. The methodology also estimates the vulnerable population in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) which takes into consideration the demographic profile of the population and the degree of injury on mortality and morbidity sustained. The methodology is illustrated using a case study of a pharmaceutical industry in the Kolkata metropolitan area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Normal accidents: Living with high-risk technologies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Perrow, Ch.

    1984-01-01

    It was a major nuclear accident, the one at Three Mile Island in 1979, that turned Perrow's attention to accidents in general. A specialist in the sociology of organizations, he soon learned that events at TMI were not simply the result of an engineering failure or the result of operator error; rather, they were a consequence of systems failure. What the author learned from his research into the accident at TMI is that there was no coherent theory of accidents in either the engineering or the social science literature, so he set out to create one. This book discusses themore » science of accident research. Since Perrow is an outsider to all of the many technical fields reviewed in the book, ranging from nuclear power to marine transport to DNA research, experts may challenge his sources and point out his errors. Perrow's central thesis is that accidents are inevitable - that is, they are ''normal'' - in technologies that have two system characteristics that he terms ''interactive complexity'' and ''tight coupling''. Using these concepts, Perrow constructs a theory of systems which he believes to be unique in the literature on accidents and the literature on organizations. His theory concentrates upon the properties of systems themselves, rather than on the errors that owners, designers and operators make in running them. He seeks a more basic explanation than operator error; faulty design or equipment; inadequately trained personnel; or the system is too big, under-financed or mismanaged. Nuclear power in the United States may not survive its current economic and regulatory troubles, but discussion continues. Only a small part of the debate concerns plant safety: economic competitiveness, nuclear arms proliferation and nuclear waste disposal are the salient themes.« less

  1. Hypoglycaemia and accident risk in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with non-insulin antidiabetes drugs

    PubMed Central

    Signorovitch, J E; Macaulay, D; Diener, M; Yan, Y; Wu, E Q; Gruenberger, J-B; Frier, B M

    2013-01-01

    Aims To assess associations between hypoglycaemia and risk of accidents resulting in hospital visits among people with type 2 diabetes receiving antidiabetes drugs without insulin. Methods People with type 2 diabetes who were not treated with insulin were identified from a US-based employer claims database (1998–2010). Following initiation of an antidiabetes drug, the occurrence of accidents resulting in hospital visits was compared between people with, and without, claims for hypoglycaemia using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, prior treatments and prior medical service use. Additional analyses were stratified by age 65 years or older. Results A total of N = 5582 people with claims for hypoglycaemia and N = 27 910 with no such claims were included. Accidents resulting in hospital visits occurred in 5.5 and 2.8% of people with, and without, hypoglycaemia, respectively. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, hypoglycaemia was associated with significantly increased hazards for any accident [hazard ratio (HR) 1.39, 95% CI 1.21–1.59, p < 0.001], accidental falls (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13–1.65, p < 0.001) and motor vehicle accidents (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.18–2.80, p = 0.007). In age-stratified analyses, hypoglycaemia was associated with greater hazards of driving-related accidents in people younger than age 65 and falls in people aged 65 or older. Conclusions In people with type 2 diabetes receiving antidiabetes drugs without insulin, hypoglycaemia was associated with a significantly higher risk of accidents resulting in hospital visits, including accidents related to driving and falls. PMID:23121373

  2. 45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

  3. 45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

  4. 45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

  5. 45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

  6. 45 CFR 153.320 - Federally certified risk adjustment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Federally certified risk adjustment methodology. 153.320 Section 153.320 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

  7. 45 CFR 153.330 - State alternate risk adjustment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false State alternate risk adjustment methodology. 153.330 Section 153.330 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE...

  8. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.

  9. Rough set approach for accident chains exploration.

    PubMed

    Wong, Jinn-Tsai; Chung, Yi-Shih

    2007-05-01

    This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.

  10. Medical-encounter mental health diagnoses, non-fatal injury and polypharmacy indicators of risk for accident death in the US Army enlisted soldiers, 2004-2009.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Schroeder, Heather M; Berglund, Patricia A; Colpe, Lisa J; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Hay, Jeffrey D; Jones, Bruce; Little, Roderick J A; Mitchell, Colter; Schoenbaum, Michael; Schulz, Paul; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2018-06-01

    Accidents are a leading cause of deaths in U.S. active duty personnel. Understanding accident deaths during wartime could facilitate future operational planning and inform risk prevention efforts. This study expands prior research, identifying health risk factors associated with U.S. Army accident deaths during the Afghanistan and Iraq war. Military records for 2004-2009 enlisted, active duty, Regular Army soldiers were analyzed using logistic regression modeling to identify mental health, injury, and polypharmacy (multiple narcotic and/or psychotropic medications) predictors of accident deaths for current, previously, and never deployed groups. Deployed soldiers with anxiety diagnoses showed higher risk for accident deaths. Over half had anxiety diagnoses prior to being deployed, suggesting anticipatory anxiety or symptom recurrence may contribute to high risk. For previously deployed soldiers, traumatic brain injury (TBI) indicated higher risk. Two-thirds of these soldiers had first TBI medical-encounter while non-deployed, but mild, combat-related TBIs may have been undetected during deployments. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) predicted higher risk for never deployed soldiers, as did polypharmacy which may relate to reasons for deployment ineligibility. Health risk predictors for Army accident deaths are identified and potential practice and policy implications discussed. Further research could test for replicability and expand models to include unobserved factors or modifiable mechanisms related to high risk. PTSD predicted high risk among those never deployed, suggesting importance of identification, treatment, and prevention of non-combat traumatic events. Finally, risk predictors overlapped with those identified for suicides, suggesting effective intervention might reduce both types of deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Sleep habits and road traffic accident risk for Iranian occupational drivers.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi, Mohammad Hossein; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Dehghani, Mohsen; Niiat, Khosro Sadegh

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the sleep quality and sleep disorders (prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea and sleepiness) among occupational drivers in Iran and to determine which demographic factors and occupational habits are linked to road traffic accidents. In this analytic cross-sectional study 556 occupational road drivers from Shahroud city (in the northeast of Iran) participated, upon a prior verbal informed consent, during 2013-2014. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) standard questionnaire that scored on 7 point scale, the 8-item Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) questionnaire and the 8-question STOP-Bang questionnaire along with demographic information and occupational data were used. To explore the independent factors associated with odds of poor sleep quality and road accident, multiple logistic regression models were used. Prevalence of previous road accidents, sleepiness while driving, and obstructive sleep apnea scored ≥ 3 in the study, and drivers accounted for 23.8%, 29%, and 24.8%, respectively. The global mean score of sleep quality and excessive sleepiness score were 5.2 and 4.8, respectively. The main factors related to the odds of poor sleep quality were snoring (odds ratio (OR) = 2.34; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-4.77), smoking (OR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.15-3.97), and driving times in a day (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03-1.21). The Epworth Sleepiness Scale (OR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07-1.23) and suffering from apnea (OR = 4.89; 95% CI: 1.07-23.83) were the best predictors for odds (increased risk) of road accidents. A considerable proportion of Iranian drivers had records of road accidents; poor sleep quality, sleepiness while driving, and sleep disorder breathing (obstructive sleep apnea - OSA). Snoring, smoking, driving time in a day, excessive sleepiness, and presumably apnea increase the odds of poor sleep quality and road traffic accident for Iranian occupational drivers. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under

  12. An approach to accidents modeling based on compounds road environments.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Ana; Neves, Jose

    2013-04-01

    The most common approach to study the influence of certain road features on accidents has been the consideration of uniform road segments characterized by a unique feature. However, when an accident is related to the road infrastructure, its cause is usually not a single characteristic but rather a complex combination of several characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to describe a methodology developed in order to consider the road as a complete environment by using compound road environments, overcoming the limitations inherented in considering only uniform road segments. The methodology consists of: dividing a sample of roads into segments; grouping them into quite homogeneous road environments using cluster analysis; and identifying the influence of skid resistance and texture depth on road accidents in each environment by using generalized linear models. The application of this methodology is demonstrated for eight roads. Based on real data from accidents and road characteristics, three compound road environments were established where the pavement surface properties significantly influence the occurrence of accidents. Results have showed clearly that road environments where braking maneuvers are more common or those with small radii of curvature and high speeds require higher skid resistance and texture depth as an important contribution to the accident prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    PubMed

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  14. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  15. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  16. A methodology for post-mainshock probabilistic assessment of building collapse risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luco, N.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Uma, S.R.; Ryu, H.; Liel, A.B.; Raghunandan, M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for post-earthquake probabilistic risk (of damage) assessment that we propose in order to develop a computational tool for automatic or semi-automatic assessment. The methodology utilizes the same so-called risk integral which can be used for pre-earthquake probabilistic assessment. The risk integral couples (i) ground motion hazard information for the location of a structure of interest with (ii) knowledge of the fragility of the structure with respect to potential ground motion intensities. In the proposed post-mainshock methodology, the ground motion hazard component of the risk integral is adapted to account for aftershocks which are deliberately excluded from typical pre-earthquake hazard assessments and which decrease in frequency with the time elapsed since the mainshock. Correspondingly, the structural fragility component is adapted to account for any damage caused by the mainshock, as well as any uncertainty in the extent of this damage. The result of the adapted risk integral is a fully-probabilistic quantification of post-mainshock seismic risk that can inform emergency response mobilization, inspection prioritization, and re-occupancy decisions.

  17. Multidisciplinary accident investigation : volume 1

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1976-09-01

    The final report of the Multidisciplinary Accident Investigation Team of the Maryland Medical-Legal Foundation, Inc. is presented. The report describes the methodology, results, discussions, conclusions and recommendations pertaining to the investiga...

  18. Management of Ultimate Risk of Nuclear Power Plants by Source Terms - Lessons Learned from the Chernobyl Accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Genn Saji

    2006-07-01

    The term 'ultimate risk' is used here to describe the probabilities and radiological consequences that should be incorporated in siting, containment design and accident management of nuclear power plants for hypothetical accidents. It is closely related with the source terms specified in siting criteria which assures an adequate separation of radioactive inventories of the plants from the public, in the event of a hypothetical and severe accident situation. The author would like to point out that current source terms which are based on the information from the Windscale accident (1957) through TID-14844 are very outdated and do not incorporate lessonsmore » learned from either the Three Miles Island (TMI, 1979) nor Chernobyl accident (1986), two of the most severe accidents ever experienced. As a result of the observations of benign radionuclides released at TMI, the technical community in the US felt that a more realistic evaluation of severe reactor accident source terms was necessary. In this background, the 'source term research project' was organized in 1984 to respond to these challenges. Unfortunately, soon after the time of the final report from this project was released, the Chernobyl accident occurred. Due to the enormous consequences induced by then accident, the one time optimistic perspectives in establishing a more realistic source term were completely shattered. The Chernobyl accident, with its human death toll and dispersion of a large part of the fission fragments inventories into the environment, created a significant degradation in the public's acceptance of nuclear energy throughout the world. In spite of this, nuclear communities have been prudent in responding to the public's anxiety towards the ultimate safety of nuclear plants, since there still remained many unknown points revolving around the mechanism of the Chernobyl accident. In order to resolve some of these mysteries, the author has performed a scoping study of the dispersion and

  19. Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-10-01

    The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

  20. Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai.

    PubMed

    Abdalla, Ibrahim M

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines crash and safety statistics from the Emirate of Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making this population at greater risk of crashes compared to other countries. In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe. Fatality and injury data used in the analysis mainly come from Dubai Emirate police reports and from other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis employed logit modeling, and possible predictors available in Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers that are deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but it is also associated with other factors. Results provide epidemiological inferences about traffic mortality and morbidity, and suggest priorities and appropriate measures for intervention, targeting resident population.

  1. 45 CFR 153.510 - Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... methodology. 153.510 Section 153.510 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT Health Insurance Issuer Standards Related to the Risk Corridors Program § 153...

  2. 45 CFR 153.510 - Risk corridors establishment and payment methodology.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... methodology. 153.510 Section 153.510 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services REQUIREMENTS RELATING TO HEALTH CARE ACCESS STANDARDS RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT Health Insurance Issuer Standards Related to the Risk Corridors Program § 153...

  3. Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Chris W.; Oltedal, H. A.; Holloway, C. M.

    2012-01-01

    Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

  4. Environmental risk factors contributing to traffic accidents in children: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    Jamshidi, Ensiyeh; Moradi, Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental risk factors related to road accidents in children of Tehran. This case-control study was performed in 2013. The cases were injured pedestrians aged 5-15 who were admitted to major hospitals supervised by Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The sample size for the cases was 273 and for the control group was 546. For the completeness of the clusters, 7 extra persons in case (total = 280) and 14 persons (total = 560) in control group were included. The interference of confounding variables assessed through forward conditional logistic regression. Result shows occurrence of traffic accidents was significantly associate with the width of the alleys or (<5 m: OR = 8.4, 95% CI: 3.3-21.5; 5-8 m: OR = 4.7, 95% CI: 1.8-12.2), distance from home to school((<100 m: OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0-2.8), existence of parking lot (OR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0-2.3), traffic congestion (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.4), traffic speed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.2) and existence of pedestrian bridges(OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.6-6.8). In the light of the important role of environmental factors in the occurrence of child traffic accidents, alleviating structural risk factors in addition to education and enforcement need more systematic efforts and planning by policymakers and urban planners to attain pedestrian safety goals.

  5. Synthesis of national risk profile

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The methodology used and results obtained in computing the national risk profile for carbon fibers (CF) released after an aircraft accident (fire or explosion) are presented. The computation was performed by use of twenty-six individual conditional risk profiles, together with the extrapolation of these profiles to other U.S. airports. The risk profile was obtained using 1993 CF utilization forecasts, but numbers of facilities were taken from 1972 and 1975 census data, while losses were expressed in 1977 dollars.

  6. Risk Analysis for Public Consumption: Media Coverage of the Ginna Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dunwoody, Sharon; And Others

    Researchers have determined that the lay public makes risk judgments in ways that are very different from those advocated by scientists. Noting that these differences have caused considerable concern among those who promote and regulate health and safety, a study examined media coverage of the accident at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear power plant…

  7. MULTI-MEDIA MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER SLUDGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to reduce the risk of municipal sludge to acceptable levels, the U.S. EPA has undertaken a regulatory program based on risk assessment and risk management. The key to such a program is the development of a methodology which allows the regulatory agency to quantify the re...

  8. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S; Takamura, N; Ohtsuru, A; Suzuki, S

    2016-09-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer. © World Health Organisation 2016. All rights reserved. The World Health Organization has granted Oxford University Press permission for the reproduction of this article.

  9. Willingness to pay for mortality risk reduction for traffic accidents in Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Mon, Ei Ei; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Khampirat, Buratin; Satiennam, Wichuda; Ratanavaraha, Vatanavongs

    2018-05-30

    The dramatic increase in vehicle ownership in Myanmar over the past few years has resulted in an alarming increase in traffic accidents. Thus, road safety at the national level needs to be improved urgently in order to reduce the costs associated with traffic accidents and to assist policy makers in making economically efficient resource allocation decisions for road safety improvements. This research was conducted to determine the costs related to fatality risk reductions using a willingness to pay (WTP) approach for motorcyclists, car drivers, and bus passengers in Myanmar. Face-to-face interviews with contingent valuation (CV) and a payment card questionnaire approach was employed for the data collection; multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to determine the factors influencing WTP. The resulting median and mean for the value of statistical life (VSL) were found to be MMK 118.062 million (US$ 98,385) to MMK 162.854 million (US$ 135,712), respectively. Therefore, the total cost of death was estimated to range from MMK 594.681 billion (US$ 495.567 million) to MMK 820.296 billion (US$ 683.580 million) in 2015. In addition, the WTP was found to be significantly associated with age, family status, education, occupation, individual income, household income, the vehicle used, exposure to traffic, drunk driving, personal experiences, and the perceived risk of traffic accidents. This study might be helpful in prioritization of road safety related projects to get greatest benefit by choosing most cost effective projects. This study might assist the decision-making for road safety budget allocations and policy development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. ARAMIS project: a more explicit demonstration of risk control through the use of bow-tie diagrams and the evaluation of safety barrier performance.

    PubMed

    de Dianous, Valérie; Fiévez, Cécile

    2006-03-31

    Over the last two decades a growing interest for risk analysis has been noted in the industries. The ARAMIS project has defined a methodology for risk assessment. This methodology has been built to help the industrialist to demonstrate that they have a sufficient risk control on their site. Risk analysis consists first in the identification of all the major accidents, assuming that safety functions in place are inefficient. This step of identification of the major accidents uses bow-tie diagrams. Secondly, the safety barriers really implemented on the site are taken into account. The barriers are identified on the bow-ties. An evaluation of their performance (response time, efficiency, and level of confidence) is performed to validate that they are relevant for the expected safety function. At last, the evaluation of their probability of failure enables to assess the frequency of occurrence of the accident. The demonstration of the risk control based on a couple gravity/frequency of occurrence is also possible for all the accident scenarios. During the risk analysis, a practical tool called risk graph is used to assess if the number and the reliability of the safety functions for a given cause are sufficient to reach a good risk control.

  11. Predictors of Suicide and Accident Death in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

    PubMed Central

    Schoenbaum, Michael; Kessler, Ronald C.; Gilman, Stephen E.; Colpe, Lisa J.; Heeringa, Steven G.; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Cox, Kenneth L.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multicomponent study designed to generate actionable recommendations to reduce Army suicides and increase knowledge of risk and resilience factors for suicidality. OBJECTIVES To present data on prevalence, trends, and basic sociodemographic and Army experience correlates of suicides and accident deaths among active duty Regular Army soldiers between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2009, and thereby establish a foundation for future Army STARRS investigations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Analysis of trends and predictors of suicide and accident deaths using Army and Department of Defense administrative data systems. Participants were all members of the US Regular Army serving at any time between 2004 and 2009. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Death by suicide or accident during active Army service. RESULTS The suicide rate rose between 2004 and 2009 among never deployed and currently and previously deployed Regular Army soldiers. The accident death rate fell sharply among currently deployed soldiers, remained constant among the previously deployed, and trended upward among the never deployed. Increased suicide risk was associated with being a man (or a woman during deployment), white race/ethnicity, junior enlisted rank, recent demotion, and current or previous deployment. Sociodemographic and Army experience predictors were generally similar for suicides and accident deaths. Time trends in these predictors and in the Army’s increased use of accession waivers (which relaxed some qualifications for new soldiers) do not explain the rise in Army suicides. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Predictors of Army suicides were largely similar to those reported elsewhere for civilians, although some predictors distinct to Army service emerged that deserve more in-depth analysis. The existence of a time trend in suicide risk among never-deployed soldiers argues indirectly against the view

  12. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communicationmore » skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety.« less

  13. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  14. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    PubMed

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  15. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  16. Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Christopher JL; Ezzati, Majid; Lopez, Alan D; Rodgers, Anthony; Vander Hoorn, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty. PMID:12780936

  17. Anatomy of an Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    1984-01-01

    The findings of industrial safety engineers in the areas of accident causation and prevention are wholly applicable to adventure programs. Adventure education instructors can use safety engineering concepts to assess the risk in a particular activity, understand factors that cause accidents, and intervene to minimize injuries and damages if…

  18. Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines

    PubMed Central

    Dindarloo, Saeid R.; Pollard, Jonisha P.; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. Methods A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Results Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5 years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. Conclusions The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Practical application Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with

  19. Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines.

    PubMed

    Dindarloo, Saeid R; Pollard, Jonisha P; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

    2016-09-01

    Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. Copyright © 2016

  20. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  1. Risk to the public from carbon fibers released in civil aircraft accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Because carbon fibers are strong, stiff, and lightweight, they are attractive for use in composite structures. Because they also have high electrical conductivity, free carbon fibers settling on electrical conductors can cause malfunctions. If released from the composite by burning, the fibers may become a hazard to exposed electrical and electronic equipment. As part of a Federal study of the potential hazard associated with the use of carbon fibers, NASA assessed the public risk associated with crash fire accidents of civil aircraft. The NASA study projected a dramatic increase in the use of carbon composites in civil aircraft and developed technical data to support the risk assessment. Personal injury was found to be extremely unlikely. In 1993, the year chosen as a focus for the study, the expected annual cost of damage caused by released carbon fibers is only $1000. Even the worst-case carbon fiber incident simulated (costing $178,000 once in 34,000 years) was relatively low-cost compared with the usual air transport accident cost. On the basis of these observations, the NASA study concluded that exploitation of composites should continue, that additional protection of avionics is unnecessary, and that development of alternate materials specifically to overcome this problem is not justified.

  2. USING A RISK-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR THE TRANSFER OF RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL WITHIN THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE BOUNDARY

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Loftin, B; Watkins, R; Loibl, M

    2010-06-03

    Shipment of radioactive materials (RAM) is discussed in the Code of Federal Regulations in parts of both 49 CFR and 10 CFR. The regulations provide the requirements and rules necessary for the safe shipment of RAM across public highways, railways, waterways, and through the air. These shipments are sometimes referred to as in-commerce shipments. Shipments of RAM entirely within the boundaries of Department of Energy sites, such as the Savannah River Site (SRS), can be made using methodology allowing provisions to maintain equivalent safety while deviating from the regulations for in-commerce shipments. These onsite shipments are known as transfers atmore » the SRS. These transfers must follow the requirements approved in a site-specific Transportation Safety Document (TSD). The TSD defines how the site will transfer materials so that they have equivalence to the regulations. These equivalences are documented in an Onsite Safety Assessment (OSA). The OSA can show how a particular packaging used onsite is equivalent to that which would be used for an in-commerce shipment. This is known as a deterministic approach. However, when a deterministic approach is not viable, the TSD allows for a risk-based OSA to be written. These risk-based assessments show that if a packaging does not provide the necessary safety to ensure that materials are not released (during normal or accident conditions) then the worst-case release of materials does not result in a dose consequence worse than that defined for the SRS. This paper will discuss recent challenges and successes using this methodology at the SRS.« less

  3. [Implementation of safety devices: biological accident prevention].

    PubMed

    Catalán Gómez, M Teresa; Sol Vidiella, Josep; Castellà Castellà, Manel; Castells Bo, Carolina; Losada Pla, Nuria; Espuny, Javier Lluís

    2010-04-01

    Accidental exposures to blood and biological material were the most frequent and potentially serious accidents in healthcare workers, reported in the Prevention of Occupational Risks Unit within 2002. Evaluate the biological percutaneous accidents decrease after a progressive introduction of safety devices. Biological accidents produced between 2.002 and 2.006 were analyzed and reported by the injured healthcare workers to the Level 2b Hospital Prevention of Occupational Risk Unit with 238 beds and 750 employees. The key of the study was the safety devices (peripheral i.v. catheter, needleless i.v. access device and capillary blood collection lancet). Within 2002, 54 percutaneous biological accidents were registered and 19 in 2006, that represents a 64.8% decreased. There has been no safety devices accident reported involving these material. Accidents registered during the implantation period occurred because safety devices were not used at that time. Safety devices have proven to be effective in reducing needle stick percutaneous accidents, so that they are a good choice in the primary prevention of biological accidents contact.

  4. Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostjunina, T. N.

    2018-05-01

    The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

  5. Safety regulations, firm size, and the risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Iledare, O.O.; Pulsipher, A.G.; Baumann, R.H.

    1996-12-31

    The current expanded role of smaller independent oil producers in the OCS has led to concern about the possibility of increased risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico OCS. In addition, questions have been posed concerning the effects of the Minerals Management Service`s (MMS) safety regulations and inspection program, firm size, and industry practices on the risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico OCS. The specific purposes of the study reported in this paper were to ascertain (1) whether any empirical justification exists for the widespread concern that an increase in independentsmore » relative share of E&P operations in the Gulf OCS region will be detrimental to safety, and (2) whether MMS policies and safety programs have reduced the frequency or severity of accidents on the OCS. Our statistical and descriptive analyses of data on accidents from MMS provide no statistical evidence to support the apprehension that an expanded role for independents in E&P activity constitutes any major threat to safety on the OCS. Further, the results of our econometrics analysis confirm the expectation that the more effective MMS inspectors are at detecting incidents of noncompliance the lower the rate of accidents on the OCS is, ceteris paribus. In addition the results indicate that the variability in platform exposure years--cumulative age of operating platform--in comparison to other factors explains a significant portion of the variation in accidents per operating platform. That is, the platform aging process provides more opportunity for accidents than any other contributing factors. Our econometrics analysis also suggests that, if the other factors contributing to offshore accidents are held constant, the responsiveness of accident rate to drilling activity is inelastic while the response of accident rate to production activity levels is elastic.« less

  6. Information Sources as Explanatory Variables for the Belgian Health-Related Risk Perception of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Vyncke, Bart; Perko, Tanja; Van Gorp, Baldwin

    2017-03-01

    The media play an important role in risk communication, providing information about accidents, both nearby and far away. Each media source has its own presentation style, which could influence how the audience perceives the presented risk. This study investigates the explanatory power of 12 information sources (traditional media, new media, social media, and interpersonal communication) for the perceived risk posed by radiation released from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant on respondents' own health and that of the population in general. The analysis controlled for attitude toward nuclear energy, gender, education, satisfaction with the media coverage, and duration of attention paid to the coverage. The study uses a large empirical data set from a public opinion survey, which is representative for the Belgian population with respect to six sociodemographic variables. Results show that three information sources are significant regressors of perceived health-related risk of the nuclear accident: television, interpersonal communication, and the category of miscellaneous online sources. More favorable attitudes toward nuclear power, longer attention to the coverage, and higher satisfaction with the provided information lead to lower risk perception. Taken together, the results suggest that the media can indeed have a modest influence on how the audience perceives a risk. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Study on the Application of the Kent Index Method on the Risk Assessment of Disastrous Accidents in Subway Engineering

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Hao; Wang, Mingyang; Yang, Baohuai; Rong, Xiaoli

    2013-01-01

    With the development of subway engineering, according to uncertain factors and serious accidents involved in the construction of subways, implementing risk assessment is necessary and may bring a number of benefits for construction safety. The Kent index method extensively used in pipeline construction is improved to make risk assessment much more practical for the risk assessment of disastrous accidents in subway engineering. In the improved method, the indexes are divided into four categories, namely, basic, design, construction, and consequence indexes. In this study, a risk assessment model containing four kinds of indexes is provided. Three kinds of risk occurrence modes are listed. The probability index model which considers the relativity of the indexes is established according to the risk occurrence modes. The model provides the risk assessment process through the fault tree method and has been applied in the risk assessment of Nanjing subway's river-crossing tunnel construction. Based on the assessment results, the builders were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. The need for further research is discussed. Overall, this method may provide a tool for the builders, and improve the safety of the construction. PMID:23710136

  8. The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for flood risk: the case of Sihl river in Zurich

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ronco, Paolo; Bullo, Martina; Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Buchecker, Matthias; Marcomini, Antonio

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it is necessary to develop effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the risk of floods. In light of the recent European Flood Directive (FD), the KULTURisk-FP7 Project developed a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology for assessing the risk imposed by floods events. The KULTURisk RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It is a flexible that can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale) that integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamics models (hazard) with sito-specific geophysical and socio-economic indicators (exposure and vulnerability factors such as land cover, slope, soil permeability, population density, economic activities, etc.). The main outputs of the methodology are GIS-based risk maps that identify and prioritize relative hot

  9. Pilot study of parathyroid glands in adult and pediatric subjects exposed to ionizing radiation after the ChNPP accident, methodology of parathyroid diagnostic ultrasound.

    PubMed

    Kaminskyi, O V; Kopylova, O V; Afanasyev, D Ye; Mazurenko, O V; Berezovskyi, S Ya

    2017-12-01

    Estimation of the parathyroid hyperplasia prevalence after the ChNPP accident in adults exposed to ion izing radiation and their descendants using the diagnostic ultrasound and its methodology elaboration. The pilot prospective study of the prevalence of parathyroid hyperplasia among the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) accident adult survivors (n=686) and their descendants (54 children) was performed using diagnostic ultrasound examination of thyroid and parathyroids. Among the study subjects there were 339 ChNPP accident clean up workers (ACUW), 32 persons were evacuated from the 30 km exclusion zone and 224 ones were included to the control group. Diagnostic ultrasound of thyroid and parathyroids was performed according to the standard method. Additionally, in children with parathyroid hyperplasia an additional assay of 25 hydroxyvitamin D levels in serum was performed. In calculating the statistical significance, its level p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Parathyroids are a few small but critically important endocrine glands that synthesize parathyroid hormone, regulating mainly phosphoric calcium metabolism. Insufficient (hypoparathyroidism) or excessive (hyperparathy roidism) function of parathyroids is harmful to the patients affecting the state of nervous and cardiovascular sys tem. Parathyroidss can accumulate isotopes of cesium, strontium and radioactive iodine. The available data testify to an increased incidence of clinically significant hyperplasia of parthyroids (more than 9 mm in adults and more than 5 mm in children) among persons exposed toionizng radiation as a result of the accident at the ChNPP (28.64%) and their descendants (23.8-70.6%). First of all are concerned those adults who live in contaminated areas in comparison with the control group (24.15% in not irradiated). Evacuees from the 30 km exclusion zone being the category of people who were exposed to the absorbed iodine isotopes in the first days of the Chernobyl

  10. Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jean-Louis; Gadegbeku, Blandine; Wu, Dan; Viallon, Vivian; Laumon, Bernard

    2017-01-01

    This research aims to estimate the relative risks of responsibility for a fatal accident linked to driving under the influence of cannabis or alcohol, the prevalence of these influences among drivers and the corresponding attributable risk ratios. A secondary goal is to estimate the same items for three other groups of illicit drugs (amphetamines, cocaine and opiates), and to compare the results to a similar study carried out in France between 2001 and 2003. Police procedures for fatal accidents in Metropolitan France during 2011 were analyzed and 300 characteristics encoded to provide a database of 4,059 drivers. Information on alcohol and four groups of illicit drugs derived from tests for positivity and potential confirmation through blood analysis. The study compares drivers responsible for causing the accident, that is to say having directly contributed to its occurrence, to drivers involved in an accident for which they were not responsible, and who can be assimilated to drivers in general. The proportion of persons driving under the influence of alcohol is estimated at 2.1% (95% CI: 1.4-2.8) and under the influence of cannabis at 3.4% (2.9%-3.9%). Drivers under the influence of alcohol are 17.8 times (12.1-26.1) more likely to be responsible for a fatal accident, and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever exceeded the legal limit for alcohol is estimated at 27.7% (26.0%-29.4%). Drivers under the influence of cannabis multiply their risk of being responsible for causing a fatal accident by 1.65 (1.16-2.34), and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever drove under the influence of cannabis is estimated at 4.2% (3.7%-4.8%). An increased risk linked to opiate use has also been found to be significant, but with low prevalence, requiring caution in interpreting this finding. Other groups of narcotics have even lower prevalence, and the associated extra risks cannot be assessed. Almost a

  11. Designing trials for pressure ulcer risk assessment research: methodological challenges.

    PubMed

    Balzer, K; Köpke, S; Lühmann, D; Haastert, B; Kottner, J; Meyer, G

    2013-08-01

    For decades various pressure ulcer risk assessment scales (PURAS) have been developed and implemented into nursing practice despite uncertainty whether use of these tools helps to prevent pressure ulcers. According to current methodological standards, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are required to conclusively determine the clinical efficacy and safety of this risk assessment strategy. In these trials, PURAS-aided risk assessment has to be compared to nurses' clinical judgment alone in terms of its impact on pressure ulcer incidence and adverse outcomes. However, RCTs evaluating diagnostic procedures are prone to specific risks of bias and threats to the statistical power which may challenge their validity and feasibility. This discussion paper critically reflects on the rigour and feasibility of experimental research needed to substantiate the clinical efficacy of PURAS-aided risk assessment. Based on reflections of the methodological literature, a critical appraisal of available trials on this subject and an analysis of a protocol developed for a methodologically robust cluster-RCT, this paper arrives at the following conclusions: First, available trials do not provide reliable estimates of the impact of PURAS-aided risk assessment on pressure ulcer incidence compared to nurses' clinical judgement alone due to serious risks of bias and insufficient sample size. Second, it seems infeasible to assess this impact by means of rigorous experimental studies since sample size would become extremely high if likely threats to validity and power are properly taken into account. Third, means of evidence linkages seem to currently be the most promising approaches for evaluating the clinical efficacy and safety of PURAS-aided risk assessment. With this kind of secondary research, the downstream effect of use of PURAS on pressure ulcer incidence could be modelled by combining best available evidence for single parts of this pathway. However, to yield reliable modelling

  12. Conceptual compression discussion on a multi-linear (FTA) and systematic (FRAM) method in an offshore operation's accident modeling.

    PubMed

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaei, Mohammad Mahdy; Gholamnia, Reza

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessment can be classified into two broad categories: traditional and modern. This paper is aimed at contrasting the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) as a modern approach with the fault tree analysis (FTA) as a traditional method, regarding assessing the risks of a complex system. Applied methodology by which the risk assessment is carried out, is presented in each approach. Also, FRAM network is executed with regard to nonlinear interaction of human and organizational levels to assess the safety of technological systems. The methodology is implemented for lifting structures deep offshore. The main finding of this paper is that the combined application of FTA and FRAM during risk assessment, could provide complementary perspectives and may contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of an incident. Finally, it is shown that coupling a FRAM network with a suitable quantitative method will result in a plausible outcome for a predefined accident scenario.

  13. Insomnia and accidents: cross-sectional study (EQUINOX) on sleep-related home, work and car accidents in 5293 subjects with insomnia from 10 countries.

    PubMed

    Léger, Damien; Bayon, Virginie; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre; Ement, Philippe; Metlaine, Arnaud; Chennaoui, Mounir; Faraut, Brice

    2014-04-01

    The link between sleepiness and the risk of motor vehicle accidents is well known, but little is understood regarding the risk of home, work and car accidents of subjects with insomnia. An international cross-sectional survey was conducted across 10 countries in a population of subjects with sleep disturbances. Primary care physicians administered a questionnaire that included assessment of sociodemographic characteristics, sleep disturbance and accidents (motor vehicle, work and home) related to sleep problems to each subject. Insomnia was defined using the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD-10) criteria. A total of 5293 subjects were included in the study, of whom 20.9% reported having had at least one home accident within the past 12 months, 10.1% at least one work accident, 9% reported having fallen asleep while driving at least once and 4.1% reported having had at least one car accident related to their sleepiness. All types of accident were reported more commonly by subjects living in urban compared to other residential areas. Car accidents were reported more commonly by employed subjects, whereas home injuries were reported more frequently by the unemployed. Car accidents were reported more frequently by males than by females, whereas home accidents were reported more commonly by females. Patients with insomnia have high rates of home accidents, car accidents and work accidents related to sleep disturbances independently of any adverse effects of hypnotic treatments. Reduced total sleep time may be one factor explaining the high risk of accidents in individuals who complain of insomnia. © 2013 European Sleep Research Society.

  14. Emotional reactivity: Beware its involvement in traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    M'bailara, Katia; Atzeni, Thierry; Contrand, Benjamin; Derguy, Cyrielle; Bouvard, Manuel-Pierre; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Galéra, Cédric

    2018-04-01

    Reducing risk attributable to traffic accidents is a public health challenge. Research into risk factors in the area is now moving towards identification of the psychological factors involved, particularly emotional states. The aim of this study was to evaluate the link between emotional reactivity and responsibility in road traffic accidents. We hypothesized that the more one's emotional reactivity is disturbed, the greater the likelihood of being responsible for a traffic accident. This case-control study was based on a sample of 955 drivers injured in a motor vehicle crash. Responsibility levels were determined with a standardized method adapted from the quantitative Robertson and Drummer crash responsibility instrument. Emotional reactivity was assessed with the MATHYS. Hierarchical cluster analysis discriminated four distinctive driver's emotional reactivity profiles: basic emotional reactivity (54%), mild emotional hyper-reactivity (29%), emotional hyper-reactivity (11%) and emotional hypo-reactivity (6%). Drivers who demonstrated emotional hypo-reactivity had a 2.3-fold greater risk of being responsible for a traffic accident than those with basic emotional reactivity. Drivers' responsibility in traffic accidents depends on their emotional status. The latter can change the ability of drivers, modifying their behavior and thus increasing their propensity to exhibit risk behavior and to cause traffic accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Distribution and ecological risk assessment of cadmium in water and sediment in Longjiang River, China: Implication on water quality management after pollution accident.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xue-Min; Yao, Ling-Ai; Ma, Qian-Li; Zhou, Guang-Jie; Wang, Li; Fang, Qiao-Li; Xu, Zhen-Cheng

    2018-03-01

    In early January 2012, the Longjiang River was subjected to a serious cadmium (Cd) pollution accident, which led to negatively environmental and social impacts. A series of measures of emergency treatment were subsequently taken to reduce water Cd level. However, little information was available about the change of Cd level in environmental matrices and long-term effect of this pollution accident to aquatic ecosystem. Thus, this study investigated the distribution of Cd in water and sediment of this river for two years since pollution accident, as well as assessed its ecological risk to aquatic ecosystem of Longjiang River. The results showed that it was efficient for taking emergency treatment measures to decrease water Cd concentration to below the threshold value of national drinking water quality standard of China. There was high risk (HQ > 1) to aquatic ecosystem in some of reaches between February and July 2012, but low or no risk (HQ < 1) between December 2012 to December 2013. Cd concentration in sediment in polluted reaches increased after pollution accident and emergency treatments in 2012, but decreased in 2013. During flood period, the sediment containing high concentration of Cd in Longjiang River was migrated to downstream Liujiang River. Cd content in sediment was reduced to background level after two years of the pollution accident occurrence. The study provides basic information about Cd levels in different media after pollution accident, which is helpful in evaluating the effectiveness of emergency treatments and the variation of ecological risk, as well as in conducting water management and conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Myopia, spectacle wear, and risk of bicycle accidents among rural Chinese secondary school students: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study report no. 7.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Mingzhi; Congdon, Nathan; Li, Liping; Song, Yue; Choi, Kai; Wang, Yunfei; Zhou, Zhongxia; Liu, Xiaojian; Sharma, Abhishek; Chen, Weihong; Lam, Dennis S C

    2009-06-01

    To study the effect of myopia and spectacle wear on bicycle-related injuries in rural Chinese students. Myopia is common among Chinese students but few studies have examined its effect on daily activities. Data on visual acuity, refractive error, current spectacle wear, and history of bicycle use and accidents during the past 3 years were sought from 1891 students undergoing eye examinations in rural Guangdong province. Refractive and accident data were available for 1539 participants (81.3%), among whom the mean age was 14.6 years, 52.5% were girls, 26.8% wore glasses, and 12.9% had myopia of less than -4 diopters in both eyes. More than 90% relied on bicycles to get to school daily. A total of 2931 accidents were reported by 423 participants, with 68 requiring medical attention. Male sex (odds ratio, 1.55; P < .001) and spectacle wear (odds ratio, 1.38; P = .04) were associated with a higher risk of accident, but habitual visual acuity and myopia were unassociated with the crash risk, after adjusting for age, sex, time spent riding, and risky riding behaviors. These results may be consistent with data on motor vehicle accidents implicating peripheral vision (potentially compromised by spectacle wear) more strongly than central visual acuity in mediating crash risk.

  17. Risk-based Methodology for Validation of Pharmaceutical Batch Processes.

    PubMed

    Wiles, Frederick

    2013-01-01

    In January 2011, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration published new process validation guidance for pharmaceutical processes. The new guidance debunks the long-held industry notion that three consecutive validation batches or runs are all that are required to demonstrate that a process is operating in a validated state. Instead, the new guidance now emphasizes that the level of monitoring and testing performed during process performance qualification (PPQ) studies must be sufficient to demonstrate statistical confidence both within and between batches. In some cases, three qualification runs may not be enough. Nearly two years after the guidance was first published, little has been written defining a statistical methodology for determining the number of samples and qualification runs required to satisfy Stage 2 requirements of the new guidance. This article proposes using a combination of risk assessment, control charting, and capability statistics to define the monitoring and testing scheme required to show that a pharmaceutical batch process is operating in a validated state. In this methodology, an assessment of process risk is performed through application of a process failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (PFMECA). The output of PFMECA is used to select appropriate levels of statistical confidence and coverage which, in turn, are used in capability calculations to determine when significant Stage 2 (PPQ) milestones have been met. The achievement of Stage 2 milestones signals the release of batches for commercial distribution and the reduction of monitoring and testing to commercial production levels. Individuals, moving range, and range/sigma charts are used in conjunction with capability statistics to demonstrate that the commercial process is operating in a state of statistical control. The new process validation guidance published by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in January of 2011 indicates that the number of process validation batches

  18. A methodological proposal to evaluate the cost of duration moral hazard in workplace accident insurance.

    PubMed

    Martín-Román, Ángel; Moral, Alfonso

    2017-12-01

    The cost of duration moral hazard in workplace accident insurance has been amply explored by North-American scholars. Given the current context of financial constraints in public accounts, and particularly in the Social Security system, we feel that the issue merits inquiry in the case of Spain. The present research posits a methodological proposal using the econometric technique of stochastic frontiers, which allows us to break down the duration of work-related leave into what we term "economic days" and "medical days". Our calculations indicate that during the 9-year period spanning 2005-2013, the cost of sick leave amongst full-time salaried workers amounted to 6920 million Euros (in constant 2011 Euros). Of this total, and bearing in mind that "economic days" are those attributable to duration moral hazard, over 3000 million Euros might be linked to workplace absenteeism. It is on this figure where economic policy measures might prove more effective.

  19. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review

    PubMed Central

    Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables. PMID:29077045

  20. Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review.

    PubMed

    Takebayashi, Yoshitake; Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

    2017-10-27

    The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables.

  1. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  2. In-hospital paediatric accidents: an integrative review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Da Rin Della Mora, R; Bagnasco, A; Sasso, L

    2012-12-01

    Paediatric hospitals can be perceived by children, parents, health professionals as 'safe' places, but accidents do occur. To review publications relating to in-hospital paediatric accidents and highlight the state-of-the-science concerning this issue especially in relation to falls, and the evolution of research addressing this issue. Integrative review of papers published before March 2011 on accidents and falls occurred in hospitalized children. Electronic databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Cochrane Library databases) and further hand searching through references were searched. The inclusion criteria were articles involving observational, quasi-experimental or experimental studies in English or Italian. Exclusion criteria were articles addressing the outcomes of falls caused by suspect violence on children. Thirteen studies in English were included. Of the 13 studies conducted between 1963 and 2010, 10 had been conducted in the last 5 years; 10 in the USA. The studies were divided into two categories: contextualization and prevention of the 'accident' or 'fall' phenomenon (10 studies), and fall risk assessment (three studies). The most frequent type of design was observational explorative/descriptive. Several areas of investigation were explored (hazardous environment, children's characteristics correlated to accidents/falls, characteristics of the accidents/falls and their outcomes, paediatric fall risk factors and risk assessment tools, fall risk prevention programmes, parents' perceptions of accident/fall risks, etc.). No comparable methods were used to investigate the contextualization and prevention of the 'accident' and 'fall' phenomena; proposed fall risk assessment tools were not evaluated for their reliability and validity. Consensus would be needed around the approach to accidents in terms of: the definition of 'accident' and 'fall'; 'fall-related injury' and respective classifications; the frequency and

  3. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  4. Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik

    2015-12-15

    Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  6. Development of risk-based decision methodology for facility design.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-06-01

    This report develops a methodology for CDOT to use in the risk analysis of various types of facilities and provides : illustrative examples for the use of the proposed framework. An overview of the current practices and applications to : illustrate t...

  7. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rath, F.

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation

  8. Mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes using RAPID-N

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2013-04-01

    Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires or explosions. For the reduction of Natech risk, one of the highest priority needs is the identification of Natech-prone areas and the systematic assessment of Natech risks. With hardly any Natech risk maps existing within the EU the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed a Natech risk analysis and mapping tool called RAPID-N, that estimates the overall risk of natural-hazard impact to industrial installations and its possible consequences. The results are presented as risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, RAPID-N focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. The RAPID-N methodology is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, use of fragility curves to determine damage probabilities of plant units for various damage states, and the calculation of spatial extent, severity, and probability of Natech events potentially triggered by the natural hazard. The methodology was implemented as a web-based risk assessment and mapping software tool which allows easy data entry, rapid local or regional risk assessment and mapping. RAPID-N features an innovative property estimation framework to calculate on-site natural hazard parameters, industrial plant and plant unit characteristics, and hazardous substance properties. Custom damage states and fragility curves can be defined for different types of plant units. Conditional relationships can be specified between damage states and Natech risk states, which describe probable Natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using a custom implementation of U.S. EPA's Risk Management

  9. Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

    PubMed

    Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

    2011-06-01

    Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

  10. United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

  11. United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    DOE PAGES

    Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

    2016-11-02

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

  12. Fatal connections--socioeconomic determinants of road accident risk and drunk driving in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Krüger, Niclas A

    2013-09-01

    In recent years a considerable number of papers have examined socioeconomic factors influencing the number and the outcome of traffic accidents. There is however more research needed to confirm the previous results in order to generalize them and a need to examine additional factors that might have an impact. This paper uses both regional panel data and national time series data combined with filtering techniques to determine what factors influence the number of accidents, the accident outcome and detected drunk driving. Using time series data, it is found that the number of traffic fatalities increases for both per capita and per person kilometer travelled during economic booms. This indicates that the death risk rises not only because of increased mileage or motorization during booms. Using panel data, it is found that traffic fatalities decrease with unemployment, whereas personal injuries increase on a per capita basis with youth and the number of cars. In contrast to property crimes and other types of crime, drunk driving in Sweden decreases during economic contractions. The main policy conclusion from our results is that resources for safety measures should not be spend uniformly across time and space. Instead, safety measures should be concentrated to areas with a high share of young people and to periods with low unemployment. The results of the time series analysis suggest that factors other than increased mileage during booms contribute to the higher rate of fatalities during good times. Increased risk taking, such as drunk driving, might be an explanatory factor. The results might be interesting for safety-oriented car and truck producers as well for developers of traffic safety products, since the results indicate in what regional markets and under what market conditions their products are most needed. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  14. Data on the determinants of the risk of fatalities, serious injuries and light injuries in traffic accidents on interurban roads in Spain.

    PubMed

    González, María Pilar Sánchez; Sotos, Francisco Escribano; Ponce, Ángel Tejada

    2018-06-01

    This article describes the data collection used to analyse the risk of fatalities and injuries resulting from traffic accidents on interurban roads in the provinces of Spain from 1999 to 2015. The database includes data on different factors related to accidents rates for each Spanish province. These data were used in the article entitled "Impact of provincial characteristics on the number of traffic accident victims on interurban roads in Spain" (Sánchez et al., 2018) [1].

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL SLUDGE INCINERATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution an...

  16. DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR MUNICIPAL SLUDGE LANDFILLING

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include land application practices, distribution an...

  17. Cancer risk estimation in Belarussian children due to thyroid irradiation as a consequence of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.E.; Sergeeva, N.V.

    1996-07-01

    The thyroid doses received by the juvenile population of Belarus following the Chernobyl accident ranged up to about 10 Gy. The thyroid cancer risk estimate recommended in NCRP Report No. 80 was used to predict the number of thyroid cancer cases among children during 1990-1992 in selected Belarussian regions and cities. The results obtained using this risk estimate show an excess of thyroid cancer cases being registered vs. the predicted cases. Thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys under investigation is higher than among girls in the postaccident period. The excess of the observed over the expected incidence in the generalmore » juvenile population is caused by the high thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys. These results, which can be considered part of the first stage of a thorough thyroid cancer risk estimation after the Chernobyl accident, demonstrate the critical need to complete these studies in depth. 6 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

  18. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  19. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  20. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  1. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  2. 40 CFR 68.168 - Five-year accident history.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Five-year accident history. 68.168 Section 68.168 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.168 Five-year accident history...

  3. Cerebrovascular accidents in patients with a ventricular assist device.

    PubMed

    Tsukui, Hiroyuki; Abla, Adib; Teuteberg, Jeffrey J; McNamara, Dennis M; Mathier, Michael A; Cadaret, Linda M; Kormos, Robert L

    2007-07-01

    A cerebrovascular accident is a devastating adverse event in a patient with a ventricular assist device. The goal was to clarify the risk factors for cerebrovascular accident. Prospectively collected data, including medical history, ventricular assist device type, white blood cell count, thrombelastogram, and infection, were reviewed retrospectively in 124 patients. Thirty-one patients (25%) had 48 cerebrovascular accidents. The mean ventricular assist device support period was 228 and 89 days in patients with and without cerebrovascular accidents, respectively (P < .0001). Sixty-six percent of cerebrovascular accidents occurred within 4 months after implantation. Actuarial freedom from cerebrovascular accident at 6 months was 75%, 64%, 63%, and 33% with the HeartMate device (Thoratec Corp, Pleasanton, Calif), Thoratec biventricular ventricular assist device (Thoratec Corp), Thoratec left ventricular assist device (Thoratec), and Novacor device (WorldHeart, Oakland, Calif), respectively. Twenty cerebrovascular accidents (42%) occurred in patients with infections. The mean white blood cell count at the cerebrovascular accident was greater than the normal range in patients with infection (12,900/mm3) and without infection (9500/mm3). The mean maximum amplitude of the thrombelastogram in the presence of infection (63.6 mm) was higher than that in the absence of infection (60.7 mm) (P = .0309). The risk of cerebrovascular accident increases with a longer ventricular assist device support period. Infection may activate platelet function and predispose the patient to a cerebrovascular accident. An elevation of the white blood cell count may also exacerbate the risk of cerebrovascular accident even in patients without infection. Selection of device type, prevention of infection, and meticulous control of anticoagulation are key to preventing cerebrovascular accident.

  4. Emotional stress and traffic accidents: the impact of separation and divorce.

    PubMed

    Lagarde, Emmanuel; Chastang, Jean-François; Gueguen, Alice; Coeuret-Pellicer, Mireille; Chiron, Mireille; Lafont, Sylviane

    2004-11-01

    Personal responses to stressful life events are suspected of increasing the risk of serious traffic accidents. We analyzed data from a French cohort study (the GAZEL cohort), including a retrospective driving behavior questionnaire, from 13,915 participants (10,542 men age 52-62 years and 3373 women age 47-62 years in 2001). Follow-up data covered 1993-2000. Hazard ratios for serious accidents (n = 713) were computed by Cox's proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates. Separate analyses were also performed to consider only at-fault accidents. Marital separation or divorce was associated with an increased risk of a serious accident (all serious accidents: hazard ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval = 1.7-5.0; at-fault accidents: 4.4, 2.3-8.3). The impact of separation and divorce did not differ according to alcohol consumption levels. Other life events associated with increased risk of serious accident were a child leaving home (all accidents: 1.2, 0.97-1.6; at-fault accidents: 1.5, 1.1-2.1), an important purchase (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-1.7; at-fault accidents: 1.6, 1.2-2.1), and hospitalization of the partner (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-2.0). This study suggests that recent separation and divorce are associated with an increase in serious traffic accidents.

  5. Aspects Concerning The Rules And The Investigation Of Traffic Accidents As Work Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarnu, Lucian Ioan

    2015-07-01

    When Romania joined the European Union, it was imposed that the Romanian legislation in the field of the security and health at work be in line with the European one. The concept of health as it is defined by the International Body of Health, refers to a good physical, mental and social condition. The improvement of the activity of preventing the traffic accidents as work accidents must have as basis the correct and accurate evaluation of risks of getting injured. The goal of the activity of prevention and protection is to ensure the best working conditions, the prevention of accidents and occupational diseases and the adjustment to the scientific and technological progress. In the road transport sector, as in any other sector, it is very important to pay attention to working conditions to ensure a workforce motivated and well qualified. Some features make it a more difficult sector risk management than other sectors. However, if one takes into account how it works in practice this sector and the characteristics of drivers and how they work routinely, risks, dangers and threats can be managed efficiently and with great success.

  6. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    PubMed

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  7. Wet weather highway accident analysis and skid resistance data management system (volume I).

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1992-06-01

    The objectives and scope of this research are to establish an effective methodology for wet weather accident analysis and to develop a database management system to facilitate information processing and storage for the accident analysis process, skid...

  8. An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

    1992-01-01

    An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

  9. Driving behaviors and on-duty road accidents: a French case-control study.

    PubMed

    Fort, Emmanuel; Chiron, Mireille; Davezies, Philippe; Bergeret, Alain; Charbotel, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    A case-control study was carried out to identify driving behaviors associated with the risk of on-duty road accident and to compare driving behaviors according to the type of journey (on duty, commuting, and private) for on-duty road accident victims. Cases were recruited from the Rhône Road Trauma Registry between January 2004 and October 2005 and were on duty at the time of the accident. Control subjects were recruited from the electoral rolls of the case subjects' constituencies of residence. Cases' and controls' driving behavior data were collected by self-administered questionnaire. A logistic regression was performed to identify behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents, taking into account age, sex, place of residence, road accident risk exposure, socio-occupational category, and type of road user. A second analysis focused specifically on the case subjects, comparing their self-assessed usual behaviors according to the type of journey. Significant factors for multivariate analysis of on-duty road accidents were female gender, history of on-duty road accidents during the previous 10 years, severe time pressure at work, and driving a vehicle not belonging to the driver. On-duty road accident victims reported behavioral risk factors more frequently in relation to driving for work than driving for private reasons or commuting: nonsystematic seat belt use, cell phone use at least once daily while driving, and history of accidents with injury during the previous 10 years. This study provides knowledge on behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents and differences in behavior according to the type of journey for subjects who have been on-duty road accident victims. These results will be useful for the design of on-duty road risk prevention.

  10. A new approach to road accident rescue.

    PubMed

    Morales, Alejandro; González-Aguilera, Diego; López, Alfonso I; Gutiérrez, Miguel A

    2016-01-01

    This article develops and validates a new methodology and tool for rescue assistance in traffic accidents, with the aim of improving its efficiency and safety in the evacuation of people, reducing the number of victims in road accidents. Different tests supported by professionals and experts have been designed under different circumstances and with different categories of damaged vehicles coming from real accidents and simulated trapped victims in order to calibrate and refine the proposed methodology and tool. To validate this new approach, a tool called App_Rescue has been developed. This tool is based on the use of a computer system that allows an efficient access to the technical information of the vehicle and sanitary information of the common passengers. The time spent during rescue using the standard protocol and the proposed method was compared. This rescue assistance system allows us to make vital information accessible in posttrauma care services, improving the effectiveness of interventions by the emergency services, reducing the rescue time and therefore minimizing the consequences involved and the number of victims. This could often mean saving lives. In the different simulated rescue operations, the rescue time has been reduced an average of 14%.

  11. Risk Assessment for Emergency Planning Related to Nuclear Weapons Accidents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-09-25

    accidents is higher than many of the other accidents, several reviewers thought it appropriate to evaluate these accidents in more detail. In particular, it...consequences is presented in Table 2-5. The plutonium releases in the 1F-3F gram range are due to plutonium burning in Type A weapons, while the higher ...explosion given a tanker casualty varies from 0.05 (in harbor) to 0.16 (at pier) to 0.19 (at sea). Although these numbers are somewhat higher than the

  12. Occupational accidents in the Finnish local government sector: utilisation of national statistics.

    PubMed

    Nenonen, Noora

    2011-12-01

    Occupational accidents in the Finnish local government sector in 2004 are analysed by gender, age and occupation class in order to identify particular risk groups. The accident data are compared with data concerning the number of employees, using frequency distributions and accident incidence rates. The possibilities of providing occupation class-specific accident incidence rates are also discussed. According to the results, commuting accidents are more common and severe in the local government sector than in general in Finland. In the local public sector occupational accidents more often involved women than men. Compared to other age groups and occupational classes, occupational accidents are more common in the age band of 45-54 and in the occupational class of medical and nursing work. However, compared to the employees' data, men and younger employees had an increased workplace accident risk, while women and older employees had an increased risk of commuting accidents. The highest accident incidence rate was in farming and animal husbandry work. Currently, the calculation of occupation class-specific accident incidence rates is difficult. Improving the consistency of the occupation classifications used in the various data sources would facilitate more reliable calculation of rates.

  13. [Accidents on Iceland's most dangerous roads].

    PubMed

    Bjarnason, Thóroddur; Arnarsson, Sveinn

    2012-02-01

    The objective of this paper was to identify the most dangerous segments of the Icelandic road system in terms of the number of accidents pr km and the rate of accidents pr million km travelled. First to identify the segments where the number of accidents is highest and where the risk of the individual traveller is the greatest. Second to evaluate if the association between the number and the rate of accidents is positive or negative. Third to identify the road segments that are the most dangerous in the sense of many accidents and great risk to individual travellers. Main roads outside urban centers were divided into 45 segments that were on average 78 km in length. Infrequently travelled roads and roads within urban centers were omitted. Information on the length of roads, traffic density and number of accidents was used to calculate the number of accidents per km and the rate of accidents per million km travelled. The correlation between the number and rate of accidents was calculated and the most dangerous road segments were identified by the average rank order on both dimensions. Most accidents pr km occurred on the main roads to and from the capital region, but also east towards Hvolsvöllur, north towards Akureyri and in the Mideast region of the country. The rate of accidents pr million km travelled was highest in the northeast region, in northern Snæfellsnes and in the Westfjords. The most dangerous roads on both dimensions were in Mideast, northern Westfjords, in the north between Blönduós and Akureyri and in northern Snæfellsnes. Most accidents pr km occurred on roads with a low accident rate pr million km travelled. It is therefore possible to reduce accidents the most by increasing road safety where it is already the greatest but that would however increase inequalities in road safety. Policy development in transportation is therefore in part a question of priorities in healthcare. Individual equality in safety and health are not always fully

  14. Reanalysis of the occurrence of back pain among construction workers: modelling for the interdependent effects of heavy physical work, earlier back accidents, and aging.

    PubMed

    Nurminen, M

    1997-11-01

    To re-examine the relation between heavy physical work and the occurrence of sciatic pain among construction workers reported previously to be absent in an epidemiological study. METHODS-Poisson log linear regression was used to model for the frequency of sciatic pain among concrete reinforcement workers and maintenance house painters with adjustment for the interactive effects of earlier back accidents and aging that modified the relation. Concrete reinforcement work not only had a direct effect on the frequency of sciatic pain, but it also contributed significantly to the risk indirectly through earlier back accidents. The risk of sciatic pain increased from age 25 to 54 in a different manner for a worker depending on his occupational group and record of back accidents. Epidemiological studies on low back pain need to be analysed with sound methodology. This is important in view of future meta-analyses that will be performed for the purpose of providing guidelines on the prevention of back disorders in heavy physical work.

  15. [Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

    PubMed

    De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

    2011-01-01

    Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

  16. Prevention of bicycle accidents.

    PubMed

    Simpson, A H; Mineiro, J

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate the way of reducing the number of bicycle accidents. A prospective study of all casualties from bicycle accidents attending an accident unit for a 29-month period was performed (1831 patients). A more detailed questionnaire on the causes of accidents was used for the last 12 months of the study (818 patients). In the 0-7 and 8-12 years age groups, 87.5 per cent and 66.2 per cent, respectively, were due to cyclist error. The 8-12-year-old cyclists were twice as likely to have caused the accident if they had not had formal training (risk ratio = 2.0). Over the age of 18 years, 41.4 per cent were due to another road user. A motor vehicle was involved in 633 of the 1831 accidents. Children under the age of 8 years should not be allowed on public roads. Older children should only be allowed on the roads after formal training. This should become part of the school curriculum. A campaign to increase the awareness of motorists would be expected to reduce the number of cycle accidents. It would be beneficial to dedicate more roads and tracks to cycle use. Cyclists should be encouraged to wear more protective gear.

  17. Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

  18. [Traffic accidents from the motorcycle couriers' perspective: feedback for health promotion].

    PubMed

    Veronese, Andréa Márian; de Oliveira, Dora Lúcia Leidens Corrêa

    2006-12-01

    This research note is the result of a qualitative study in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, aimed at exploring traffic accident risk from the motorcycle couriers' point of view. The research results highlight the importance of accident prevention and health promotion for these workers. The study was based on sociological theories of risk, especially those emphasizing the social and cultural nature of its meanings. Information was gathered through focus groups and analyzed according to the Data-Based Theory. According to the research subjects, all motorcycle couriers, the traffic accident risk is inherent to their daily work duties and is produced by personal and social interests like money, speed, and urgency. Motorcycle couriers attempt to control such risks by using self-defense strategies. Considering the high incidence of traffic accidents with motorcycle couriers in Porto Alegre, these strategies have apparently not been effective. This note emphasizes that traffic accidents involving motorcycle couriers are work-related accidents, and that health promotion measures to prevent them should target not only the couriers themselves but also their employers and customers.

  19. Major differences in rates of occupational accidents between different nationalities of seafarers.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Henrik L; Laursen, Lise Hedgaard; Frydberg, Morten; Kristensen, Soeren

    2008-01-01

    Earlier studies and statistics have shown that merchant seafarers from the South East Asia had considerable lower accident rates when compared with seafarers from Western Europe. The purposes of the study were to investigate whether the earlier observations were sustained if further sources on occurrence of accidents were used and to identify specific causes of excess accident rates among certain nationalities. Occupational accidents aboard Danish merchant ships during one year were identified from four different sources. These included accidents reported to the maritime authorities, accidents reported to a mutual insurance company, files on medical costs reimbursed by the government and finally, accidents in which there has been contact to the radio medical service. Time at risk aboard was obtained from a register on all employment periods aboard merchant ships. A total of 943 accidents causing personal injury to a seafarer directly caused by work aboard were identified. Among these accidents, 499 had taken place aboard cargo ships in international trade. Only these were used in the detailed analysis. The accident rate for all identified accidents aboard cargo ships were 84 accidents per 1,000 years aboard. The crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) for East European seafarers was 0.88 and for South East Asians 0.38 using West European seafarers as reference. In a Poisson regression analysis, the IRR for South East Asians was 0.29 (0.22-0.38). In an analysis including only more serious accidents, IRR for South East Asians rose to 0.36 (0.26-0.48). This study indicates that seafarers from South East Asia, mainly the Philippines, may have a genuine lower risk of occupational accidents in comparison with seafarers from Western and Eastern Europe. Differences in approach to safety and risk taking between South East Asian and European seafarers should be identified and positives attitudes included in accident preventing programmes. Main messages Seafarers from South East

  20. Development of South Dakota accident reduction factors

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-08-01

    This report offers the methodology and findings of the first project to develop Accident Reduction Factors (ARFs) and Severity Reduction Ratios (SRRs) for the state of South Dakota. The ARFs and SRRs of this project focused on Hazard Elimination and ...

  1. A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

    PubMed

    Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

    2014-02-15

    Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load

  2. Considerations on Visible Light Communication security by applying the Risk Matrix methodology for risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Rabadan, Jose; Perez-Jimenez, Rafael

    2017-01-01

    Visible Light Communications (VLC) is a cutting edge technology for data communication that is being considered to be implemented in a wide range of applications such as Inter-vehicle communication or Local Area Network (LAN) communication. As a novel technology, some aspects of the implementation of VLC have not been deeply considered or tested. Among these aspects, security and its implementation may become an obstacle for VLCs broad usage. In this article, we have used the well-known Risk Matrix methodology to determine the relative risk that several common attacks have in a VLC network. Four examples: a War Driving, a Queensland alike Denial of Service, a Preshared Key Cracking, and an Evil Twin attack, illustrate the utilization of the methodology over a VLC implementation. The used attacks also covered the different areas delimited by the attack taxonomy used in this work. By defining and determining which attacks present a greater risk, the results of this work provide a lead into which areas should be invested to increase the safety of VLC networks. PMID:29186184

  3. Considerations on Visible Light Communication security by applying the Risk Matrix methodology for risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Marin-Garcia, Ignacio; Chavez-Burbano, Patricia; Guerra, Victor; Rabadan, Jose; Perez-Jimenez, Rafael

    2017-01-01

    Visible Light Communications (VLC) is a cutting edge technology for data communication that is being considered to be implemented in a wide range of applications such as Inter-vehicle communication or Local Area Network (LAN) communication. As a novel technology, some aspects of the implementation of VLC have not been deeply considered or tested. Among these aspects, security and its implementation may become an obstacle for VLCs broad usage. In this article, we have used the well-known Risk Matrix methodology to determine the relative risk that several common attacks have in a VLC network. Four examples: a War Driving, a Queensland alike Denial of Service, a Preshared Key Cracking, and an Evil Twin attack, illustrate the utilization of the methodology over a VLC implementation. The used attacks also covered the different areas delimited by the attack taxonomy used in this work. By defining and determining which attacks present a greater risk, the results of this work provide a lead into which areas should be invested to increase the safety of VLC networks.

  4. SURVEY OF METHODOLOGIES FOR DEVELOPING MEDIA SCREENING VALUES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Barron, Mace G. and Steve Wharton. Submitted. Survey of Methodologies for Developing Media Screening Values for Ecological Risk Assessment. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 44 p. (ERL,GB 1200).

    Concurrent with the increase in the number of ecological risk assessments over the past...

  5. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

    2015-11-15

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Societal and ethical aspects of the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Oughton, Deborah

    2016-10-01

    The Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan in 2011 was a poignant reminder that radioactive contamination of the environment has consequences that encompass far more than health risks from exposure to radiation. Both the accident and remediation measures have resulted in serious societal impacts and raise questions about the ethical aspects of risk management. This article presents a brief review of some of these issues and compares similarities and differences with the lessons learned from the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in Ukraine. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:651-653. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  7. [The role of "competent physician" for prevention of accidents at work].

    PubMed

    Ramistella, E; Bergamaschi, A; Mosconi, G; Rossi, O; Sallese, D

    2008-01-01

    Using at best the professional and legal tools at his/her disposal, the "competent physician" can have a relevant role in reducing accidents in the workplace. In assessing the worker's suitability to specific tasks, the competent physician checks the presence of pathologies or functional impairments of organs or apparatuses that can be an additional risk for the occurrence of accidents at work. The activity aimed to preventing accidents at work translates also in taking part in the planning and implementation of information activities and workers' training within the company. The various risk factors inherent in the workplace and so-called "human factors" can interact in a negative way to the point of becoming a cause of accidents. The human variables of accident risk at the industrial, occupational and even individual level, may be numerous. In this paper we shall review these important aspects and attempt to clarify the role that can be played by the competent physician in the prevention of accidents at work.

  8. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold

  9. The Chernobyl accident--an epidemiological perspective.

    PubMed

    Cardis, E; Hatch, M

    2011-05-01

    Twenty-five years have passed since radioactive releases from the Chernobyl nuclear accident led to the exposure of millions of people in Europe. Studies of affected populations have provided important new data on the links between radiation and cancer-particularly the risk of thyroid tumours from exposure to iodine isotopes-that are important not only for a fuller scientific understanding of radiation effects, but also for radiation protection. It is now well documented that children and adolescents exposed to radioiodines from Chernobyl fallout have a sizeable dose-related increase in thyroid cancer, with the risk greatest in those youngest at exposure and with a suggestion that deficiency in stable iodine may increase the risk. Data on thyroid cancer risks to other age groups are somewhat less definitive. In addition, there have been reported increases in incidence and mortality from non-thyroid cancers and non-cancer end points. Although some studies are difficult to interpret because of methodological limitations, recent investigations of Chernobyl clean-up workers ('liquidators') have provided evidence of increased risks of leukaemia and other haematological malignancies and of cataracts, and suggestions of an increase in the risk of cardiovascular diseases, following low doses and low dose rates of radiation. Further careful follow-up of these populations, including the establishment and long-term support of life-span study cohorts, could provide additional important information for the quantification of radiation risks and the protection of persons exposed to low doses of radiation. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Occupational accidents among mototaxi drivers.

    PubMed

    Amorim, Camila Rego; de Araújo, Edna Maria; de Araújo, Tânia Maria; de Oliveira, Nelson Fernandes

    2012-03-01

    The use of motorcycles as a means of work has contributed to the increase in traffic accidents, in particular, mototaxi accidents. The aim of this study was to estimate and characterize the incidence of occupational accidents among the mototaxis registered in Feira de Santana, BA. This is a cross-sectional study with descriptive and census data. Of the 300 professionals registered at the Municipal Transportation Service, 267 professionals were interviewed through a structured questionnaire. Then, a descriptive analysis was conducted and the incidence of accidents was estimated based on the variables studied. Relative risks were calculated and statistical significance was determined using the chi-square test and Fisher's exact test, considering p < 0.05. Logistic regression was used in order to perform simultaneous adjustment of variables. Occupational accidents were observed in 10.5% of mototaxis. There were mainly minor injuries (48.7%), 27% of them requiring leaves of absence from work. There was an association between the days of work per week, fatigue in lower limbs and musculoskeletal complaints, and accidents. Knowledge of the working conditions and accidents involved in this activity can be of great importance for the adoption of traffic education policies, and to help prevent accidents by improving the working conditions and lives of these professionals.

  11. Contributing factors in construction accidents.

    PubMed

    Haslam, R A; Hide, S A; Gibb, A G F; Gyi, D E; Pavitt, T; Atkinson, S; Duff, A R

    2005-07-01

    This overview paper draws together findings from previous focus group research and studies of 100 individual construction accidents. Pursuing issues raised by the focus groups, the accident studies collected qualitative information on the circumstances of each incident and the causal influences involved. Site based data collection entailed interviews with accident-involved personnel and their supervisor or manager, inspection of the accident location, and review of appropriate documentation. Relevant issues from the site investigations were then followed up with off-site stakeholders, including designers, manufacturers and suppliers. Levels of involvement of key factors in the accidents were: problems arising from workers or the work team (70% of accidents), workplace issues (49%), shortcomings with equipment (including PPE) (56%), problems with suitability and condition of materials (27%), and deficiencies with risk management (84%). Employing an ergonomics systems approach, a model is proposed, indicating the manner in which originating managerial, design and cultural factors shape the circumstances found in the work place, giving rise to the acts and conditions which, in turn, lead to accidents. It is argued that attention to the originating influences will be necessary for sustained improvement in construction safety to be achieved.

  12. Truck accidents at freeway ramps : data analysis and high-risk site identification

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-01-01

    To examine the relationship of ramp design to truck accident rates, this paper presents an analysis of truck accidents in Washington State, plus a comparison to limited data from Colorado and California. The authors group freeway truck accidents by r...

  13. The Chernobyl accident — an epidemiological perspective

    PubMed Central

    Cardis, E.; Hatch, M.

    2011-01-01

    Twenty-five years have passed since radioactive releases from the Chernobyl nuclear accident led to exposure of millions of people in Europe. Studies of affected populations have provided important new data on the links between radiation and cancer – particularly the risk of thyroid tumours from exposure to iodine isotopes - that are important not only for a fuller scientific understanding of radiation effects, but also for radiation protection. It is now well-documented that children and adolescents exposed to radioiodines from Chernobyl fallout have a sizeable dose-related increase in thyroid cancer, with risk greatest in those youngest at exposure and with a suggestion that deficiency in stable iodine may increase the risk. Data on thyroid cancer risks to other age groups are somewhat less definitive. In addition, there have been reported increases in incidence and mortality from non-thyroid cancers and non-cancer endpoints. Although some studies are difficult to interpret because of methodological limitations, recent investigations of Chernobyl clean-up workers (“liquidators”) have provided evidence of increased risks of leukaemia and other hematological malignancies and of cataracts, and suggestions of an increase in risk of cardiovascular diseases, following low doses and low dose rates of radiation. Further careful follow-up of these populations, including establishment and long-term support of life-span study cohorts, could provide additional important information for the quantification of radiation risks and the protection of persons exposed to low doses of radiation. PMID:21396807

  14. Risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

    PubMed

    Arita, Aki; Sasanabe, Ryujiro; Hasegawa, Rika; Nomura, Atsuhiko; Hori, Reiko; Mano, Mamiko; Konishi, Noriyuki; Shiomi, Toshiaki

    2015-12-01

    We examined the risk factors for automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving in subjects with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). We asked licensed drivers with history of snoring and excessive daytime sleepiness who had undergone polysomnography (PSG) at the Department of Sleep Medicine/Sleep Disorders Center at Aichi Medical University Hospital to complete the questionnaires on accidents caused by falling asleep while driving. As a subjective measure of sleepiness, we used the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS). Based on PSG results, 2387 subjects diagnosed with OSAS were divided into three groups according to apnea-hypopnea index (AHI): mild-to-moderate (5 ≤ AHI < 30), severe (30 ≤ AHI < 60), and very severe (AHI ≥ 60). We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression on variables that might explain falling asleep at the wheel. We compared results between each group and simple snorers (394 subjects with AHI < 5) and found the group with very severe OSAS reported significantly higher rates of driving when drowsy and having accidents in the past 5 years due to falling asleep. Our multivariate analysis suggests that scores on the ESS and patient-reported frequency of feeling drowsy while regular driving and working are related to automobile accidents caused by falling asleep while driving.

  15. Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.

    1996-08-01

    The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to thatmore » team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document.« less

  16. Risk Communication Strategies: Lessons Learned from Previous Disasters with a Focus on the Fukushima Radiation Accident.

    PubMed

    Svendsen, Erik R; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Tsuda, Toshihide; Guimaraes, Jean Remy Davee; Tondel, Martin

    2016-12-01

    It has been difficult to both mitigate the health consequences and effectively provide health risk information to the public affected by the Fukushima radiological disaster. Often, there are contrasting public health ethics within these activities which complicate risk communication. Although no risk communication strategy is perfect in such disasters, the ethical principles of risk communication provide good practical guidance. These discussions will be made in the context of similar lessons learned after radiation exposures in Goiania, Brazil, in 1987; the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, Ukraine, in 1986; and the attack at the World Trade Center, New York, USA, in 2001. Neither of the two strategies is perfect nor fatally flawed. Yet, this discussion and lessons from prior events should assist decision makers with navigating difficult risk communication strategies in similar environmental health disasters.

  17. Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

    2011-01-01

    In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

  18. Health risks of energy systems.

    PubMed

    Krewitt, W; Hurley, F; Trukenmüller, A; Friedrich, R

    1998-08-01

    Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

  19. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    PubMed

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. [Injuries, accidents and mortality in epilepsy: a review of its prevalence risk factors and prevention].

    PubMed

    Téllez-Zenteno, José Francisco; Nguyen, Rita; Hernádez-Ronquillo, Lizbeth

    2010-01-01

    Currently, there is intense clinical research into various aspects of the medical risks relating to epilepsy, including total and cause-specific mortality, accidents and injuries in patients with epilepsy and mortality related with seizures. Submersion injuries, motor vehicle accidents, burns, and head injuries are among the most feared epilepsy-related injuries. Published risk factors for injuries include the number of antiepileptic drugs, history of generalized seizures, and seizure frequency. In general, studies focusing on populations with more severe forms of epilepsy tend to report substantially higher risks of injuries than those involving less selected populations. On the other hand, studies based in non selected populations of people with epilepsy have not shown an increase frequency of injuries in people with epilepsy compared with the general population. Some studies have shown that patients with epilepsy are more frequently admitted to the hospital following an injury. Possible explanations include are more cautious attitude of clinicians toward injuries occurring in the setting of seizures; hospitalization required because of seizures and not to the injuries themselves; and hospitalization driven by other issues, such as comorbidities, which are highly prevalent in patients with epilepsy. This article reviews information about specific type of injuries such as fractures, burns, concussions, dislocations, etc. Finally this article review in a comprehensive way information of mortality in patients with epilepsy. Aspects of mortality discussed in this review are: epidemiology, causes of mortality, sudden death in epilepsy and prevention measures.

  1. Clinical validation of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration among patients who experienced a cerebrovascular accident.

    PubMed

    Cavalcante, Tahissa Frota; de Araújo, Thelma Leite; Moreira, Rafaella Pessoa; Guedes, Nirla Gomes; Lopes, Marcos Venicios de Oliveira; da Silva, Viviane Martins

    2013-01-01

    the study's objective was the clinical validation of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration among patients who experienced cerebrovascular accidents (CVA). a prospective cohort study was conducted with 24 patients hospitalized due to a CVA. The instrument used to collect the data addressed the risk factors for respiratory aspiration, validated by concept analysis and by experts. the most frequent risk factors for respiratory aspiration were: dysphagia (54.2%) and impaired physical mobility (41.7%). The prevalence of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration was 58.3% and the prevalence of respiratory aspiration over the span of 48 hours (monitoring period) was 37.5%. Risk factors for dysphagia and impaired physical mobility were significantly associated with respiratory aspiration. the risk factors dysphagia and impaired physical mobility are good predictors of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration. This study contributed to improving the NANDA-I Taxonomy and the systematization of the nursing process.

  2. Safety assessment methodology in management of spent sealed sources.

    PubMed

    Mahmoud, Narmine Salah

    2005-02-14

    Environmental hazards can be caused from radioactive waste after their disposal. It was therefore important that safety assessment methodologies be developed and established to study and estimate the possible hazards, and institute certain safety methodologies that lead and prevent the evolution of these hazards. Spent sealed sources are specific type of radioactive waste. According to IAEA definition, spent sealed sources are unused sources because of activity decay, damage, misuse, loss, or theft. Accidental exposure of humans from spent sealed sources can occur at the moment they become spent and before their disposal. Because of that reason, safety assessment methodologies were tailored to suit the management of spent sealed sources. To provide understanding and confidence of this study, validation analysis was undertaken by considering the scenario of an accident that occurred in Egypt, June 2000 (the Meet-Halfa accident from an iridium-192 source). The text of this work includes consideration related to the safety assessment approaches of spent sealed sources which constitutes assessment context, processes leading an active source to be spent, accident scenarios, mathematical models for dose calculations, and radiological consequences and regulatory criteria. The text also includes a validation study, which was carried out by evaluating a theoretical scenario compared to the real scenario of Meet-Halfa accident depending on the clinical assessment of affected individuals.

  3. Studded and unstudded winter tires in fatal road accidents in Finland.

    PubMed

    Malmivuo, Mikko; Luoma, Juha; Porthin, Markus

    2017-07-04

    The aim of the study was to compare the safety effects of studded and unstudded winter tires based on fatal road accidents. The data included 958 road accidents involving a passenger car or van that occurred in Finland from November to March between 1997 and 2012. Comparing the proportions of winter tire type in accidents and in general traffic showed that the overall effect of tire type on the number of accidents was not significant, although studded tires reduced fatal accidents by 10-15%. Compared to unstudded tires, studded tires reduced accidents significantly only on bald ice in 2005-2012. Drivers using unstudded tires were more experienced and their profession was more frequently related to driving. In addition, the vehicle age was lower for vehicles with unstudded tires. On the other hand, the state of repair was less pertinent for unstudded than for studded tires. These confounding factors offset their effects to some degree. The risk of fatal road accidents in winter between studded and unstudded tires does not differ significantly. However, the accident risk has recently been substantially higher on bald ice for unstudded than for studded tires. The magnitude of this risk difference is difficult to determine without specific information on exposure by road surface.

  4. Wet weather highway accident analysis and skid resistance data management system (volume II : user's manual).

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1992-06-01

    The objectives and scope of this research are to establish an effective methodology for wet weather accident analysis and to develop a database management system to facilitate information processing and storage for the accident analysis process, skid...

  5. A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

    PubMed

    Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

    2017-09-01

    Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

    1992-08-01

    Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

  7. A Methodology for Dynamic Security Risk Quantification and Optimal Resource Allocation of Security Assets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Brigantic, Robert T.; Betzsold, Nick J.; Bakker, Craig KR

    In this presentation we overview a methodology for dynamic security risk quantification and optimal resource allocation of security assets for high profile venues. This methodology is especially applicable to venues that require security screening operations such as mass transit (e.g., train or airport terminals), critical infrastructure protection (e.g., government buildings), and largescale public events (e.g., concerts or professional sports). The method starts by decomposing the three core components of risk -- threat, vulnerability, and consequence -- into their various subcomponents. For instance, vulnerability can be decomposed into availability, accessibility, organic security, and target hardness and each of these can bemore » evaluated against the potential threats of interest for the given venue. Once evaluated, these subcomponents are rolled back up to compute the specific value for the vulnerability core risk component. Likewise, the same is done for consequence and threat, and then risk is computed as the product of these three components. A key aspect of our methodology is dynamically quantifying risk. That is, we incorporate the ability to uniquely allow the subcomponents and core components, and in turn, risk, to be quantified as a continuous function of time throughout the day, week, month, or year as appropriate.« less

  8. Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferencesmore » could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed.« less

  9. Cyber-Informed Engineering: The Need for a New Risk Informed and Design Methodology

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Price, Joseph Daniel; Anderson, Robert Stephen

    Current engineering and risk management methodologies do not contain the foundational assumptions required to address the intelligent adversary’s capabilities in malevolent cyber attacks. Current methodologies focus on equipment failures or human error as initiating events for a hazard, while cyber attacks use the functionality of a trusted system to perform operations outside of the intended design and without the operator’s knowledge. These threats can by-pass or manipulate traditionally engineered safety barriers and present false information, invalidating the fundamental basis of a safety analysis. Cyber threats must be fundamentally analyzed from a completely new perspective where neither equipment nor human operationmore » can be fully trusted. A new risk analysis and design methodology needs to be developed to address this rapidly evolving threatscape.« less

  10. [Occupational accidents in an oil refinery in Brazil].

    PubMed

    Souza, Carlos Augusto Vaz de; Freitas, Carlos Machado de

    2002-10-01

    Work in oil refineries involves the risk of minor to major accidents. National data show the impact of accidents on this industry. A study was carried out to describe accident profile and evaluate the adequacy of accident reporting system. Data on all accidents reported in an oil refinery in the state of Rio de Janeiro for the year 1997 were organized and analyzed. The study population consisted of 153 injury cases, 83 hired and 69 contracted workers. The variables were: type of accident, operation mode and position of the worker injured. Among hired workers, minor accidents predominated (54.2%) and they occurred during regular operation activities (62.9%). Among contracted workers, there also predominated minor accidents (75.5%) in a higher percentage, but they occurred mainly during maintenance activities (96.8%). The study results showed that there is a predominance of accidents in lower hierarchy workers, and these accidents occur mainly during maintenance activities. There is a need to improve the company's accident reporting system and accident investigation procedures.

  11. Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

    PubMed

    Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

    2017-12-29

    Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a

  12. Manual accidents, biological risk control, and quality indicators at a children's hospital in north-east Italy.

    PubMed

    Parco, Sergio; Vascotto, Fulvia; Simeone, Roberto; Visconti, Patrizia

    2015-01-01

    Working in health care carries the risk of transmission of infected blood to patients by hospital workers and to other health personnel in the form of occupational infections. Conscientious application of the standard precautions is the main method used to avoid needle stick injuries, contamination of skin and mucous membranes, cuts with sharp tools, and inadequate disposal and recapping of needles. The aim of this work was to investigate in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a region in north-east Italy, the enhancement carried out to prevent situations of biologic risk for health care workers, and to verify the related laboratory analyses. Biological accidents occurring during the years 2012-2013 in the departments of oncology and pediatric-obstetric surgery, and in the intensive care unit at Burlo Garofolo Children's Hospital in Trieste (a large town in Friuli Venezia Giulia) were reviewed, and a new panel of tests was introduced for patients and health care workers, to also detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and aspartate transaminase and immunoglobulin G. All tests were submitted for external quality assessment. In total, 230 nosocomial events were reported by health care workers in the above-mentioned hospital departments in 2012-2013. There were 158 accidents in 2012, including 55 accidental needle stick injuries (34.81%), 59 blood splashes (37.34%), and 44 cuts with infected instruments (27.84%). The risk of sustaining a cut was related to movement error during surgery when the appropriate procedure was not followed or when devices were being assembled and passed between doctors and nurses. Most accidents happened among physicians compared to nurses; the high percentage of needle stick injuries (34.81%) versus nurses (25.94%) were due to incorrect recapping of needles after use. No cases of health care workers being infected with HCV, HBV, or HIV were identified. In 2013, the number of biological accidents

  13. Randomized clinical trials in dentistry: Risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodologic quality over the years 1955-2013.

    PubMed

    Saltaji, Humam; Armijo-Olivo, Susan; Cummings, Greta G; Amin, Maryam; Flores-Mir, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    To examine the risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions and the development of these aspects over time. We included 540 randomized clinical trials from 64 selected systematic reviews. We extracted, in duplicate, details from each of the selected randomized clinical trials with respect to publication and trial characteristics, reporting and methodologic characteristics, and Cochrane risk of bias domains. We analyzed data using logistic regression and Chi-square statistics. Sequence generation was assessed to be inadequate (at unclear or high risk of bias) in 68% (n = 367) of the trials, while allocation concealment was inadequate in the majority of trials (n = 464; 85.9%). Blinding of participants and blinding of the outcome assessment were judged to be inadequate in 28.5% (n = 154) and 40.5% (n = 219) of the trials, respectively. A sample size calculation before the initiation of the study was not performed/reported in 79.1% (n = 427) of the trials, while the sample size was assessed as adequate in only 17.6% (n = 95) of the trials. Two thirds of the trials were not described as double blinded (n = 358; 66.3%), while the method of blinding was appropriate in 53% (n = 286) of the trials. We identified a significant decrease over time (1955-2013) in the proportion of trials assessed as having inadequately addressed methodological quality items (P < 0.05) in 30 out of the 40 quality criteria, or as being inadequate (at high or unclear risk of bias) in five domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool: sequence generation, allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, other sources of bias, and overall risk of bias. The risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions have improved over time; however, further efforts that contribute to the development of more stringent

  14. Linguistic methodology for the analysis of aviation accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goguen, J. A.; Linde, C.

    1983-01-01

    A linguistic method for the analysis of small group discourse, was developed and the use of this method on transcripts of commercial air transpot accidents is demonstrated. The method identifies the discourse types that occur and determine their linguistic structure; it identifies significant linguistic variables based upon these structures or other linguistic concepts such as speech act and topic; it tests hypotheses that support significance and reliability of these variables; and it indicates the implications of the validated hypotheses. These implications fall into three categories: (1) to train crews to use more nearly optimal communication patterns; (2) to use linguistic variables as indices for aspects of crew performance such as attention; and (3) to provide guidelines for the design of aviation procedures and equipment, especially those that involve speech.

  15. Young people and snowmobiling in northern Norway: accidents, injury prevention and safety strategies.

    PubMed

    Mehus, Grete; Mehus, Alf Gunnar; Germeten, Sidsel; Henriksen, Nils

    2016-01-01

    Snowmobiling among young people in Scandinavia frequently leads to accidents and injuries. Systematic studies of accidents exist, but few studies have addressed young drivers' experiences. The aim of this article is to reveal how young people experience and interpret accidents, and to outline a prevention strategy. Thirty-one girls and 50 boys aged 16-23 years from secondary schools in Northern Norway and on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, participated in 17 focus groups segregated by gender. A content analysis identified themes addressing the research questions. Participants described risk as being inherent to snowmobiling, and claimed that accidents followed from poor risk assessment, careless driving or mishaps. Evaluation of accidents and recommendations for preventive measures varied. Girls acknowledged the risks and wanted knowledge about outdoor life, navigation and external risks. Boys underestimated or downplayed the risks, and wanted knowledge about safety precautions while freeriding. Both genders were aware of how and why accidents occurred, and took precautions. Boys tended to challenge norms in ways that contradict the promotion of safe driving behaviour. Stories of internal justice regarding driving under the influence of alcohol occurred. Adolescents are aware of how accidents occur and how to avoid them. Injury prevention strategies should include a general population strategy and a high-risk strategy targeted at extreme risk-seekers. Drivers, snowmobilers' organisations and the community should share local knowledge in an effort to define problem areas, set priorities and develop and implement preventive measures. Risk prevention should include preparation of safe tracks and focus on safety equipment and safe driving behaviour, but should also pay increased attention to the potential of strengthening normative regulation within peer groups regarding driving behaviour and mutual responsibility for preventing accidents.

  16. Meaning of Missing Values in Eyewitness Recall and Accident Records

    PubMed Central

    Uttl, Bob; Kisinger, Kelly

    2010-01-01

    Background Eyewitness recalls and accident records frequently do not mention the conditions and behaviors of interest to researchers and lead to missing values and to uncertainty about the prevalence of these conditions and behaviors surrounding accidents. Missing values may occur because eyewitnesses report the presence but not the absence of obvious clues/accident features. We examined this possibility. Methodology/Principal Findings Participants watched car accident videos and were asked to recall as much information as they could remember about each accident. The results showed that eyewitnesses were far more likely to report the presence of present obvious clues than the absence of absent obvious clues even though they were aware of their absence. Conclusions One of the principal mechanisms causing missing values may be eyewitnesses' tendency to not report the absence of obvious features. We discuss the implications of our findings for both retrospective and prospective analyses of accident records, and illustrate the consequences of adopting inappropriate assumptions about the meaning of missing values using the Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card. PMID:20824054

  17. Dietary habits during the 2 months following the Chernobyl accident and differentiated thyroid cancer risk in a population-based case-control study.

    PubMed

    Xhaard, Constance; Rubino, Carole; Souchard, Vincent; Maillard, Stéphane; Ren, Yan; Borson-Chazot, Françoise; Sassolas, Geneviève; Schvartz, Claire; Colonna, Marc; Lacour, Brigitte; Woronoff, Anne Sophie; Velten, Michel; Marrer, Emilie; Bailly, Laurent; Mariné Barjoan, Eugènia; Schlumberger, Martin; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, Andre; Orgiazzi, Jacques; Adjadj, Elisabeth; de Vathaire, Florent

    2018-02-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident occurred in Ukraine on April 26th 1986. In France, the radioactive fallout and thyroid radiation doses were much lower than in highly contaminated areas. However, a number of risk projections have suggested that a small excess in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) might occur in eastern France due to this low-level fallout. In order to investigate this potential impact, a case-control study on DTC risk factors was started in 2005, focusing on cases who were less than 15 years old at the time of the Chernobyl accident. Here, we aim to evaluate the relationship between some specific reports of potentially contaminated food between April and June 1986 - in particular fresh dairy products and leafy vegetables - and DTC risk. After excluding subjects who were not born before the Chernobyl accident, the study included 747 cases of DTC matched with 815 controls. Odds ratios were calculated using conditional logistic regression models and were reported for all participants, for women only, for papillary cancer only, and excluding microcarcinomas. The DTC risk was slightly higher for participants who had consumed locally produced leafy vegetables. However, this association was not stronger in the more contaminated areas than in the others. Conversely, the reported consumption of fresh dairy products was not statistically associated with DTC risk. Because the increase in DTC risk associated with a higher consumption of locally produced vegetables was not more important in the most contaminated areas, our study lacked power to provide evidence for a strong association between consumption of potentially contaminated food and DTC risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Analysis of accident sequences and source terms at waste treatment and storage facilities for waste generated by U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Operations, Volume 3: Appendixes C-H

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mueller, C.; Nabelssi, B.; Roglans-Ribas, J.

    1995-04-01

    This report contains the Appendices for the Analysis of Accident Sequences and Source Terms at Waste Treatment and Storage Facilities for Waste Generated by the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Operations. The main report documents the methodology, computational framework, and results of facility accident analyses performed as a part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The accident sequences potentially important to human health risk are specified, their frequencies are assessed, and the resultant radiological and chemical source terms are evaluated. A personal computer-based computational framework and database have been developedmore » that provide these results as input to the WM PEIS for calculation of human health risk impacts. This report summarizes the accident analyses and aggregates the key results for each of the waste streams. Source terms are estimated and results are presented for each of the major DOE sites and facilities by WM PEIS alternative for each waste stream. The appendices identify the potential atmospheric release of each toxic chemical or radionuclide for each accident scenario studied. They also provide discussion of specific accident analysis data and guidance used or consulted in this report.« less

  19. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    PubMed

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  20. Root Source Analysis/ValuStream[Trade Mark] - A Methodology for Identifying and Managing Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Richard Lee

    2008-01-01

    Root Source Analysis (RoSA) is a systems engineering methodology that has been developed at NASA over the past five years. It is designed to reduce costs, schedule, and technical risks by systematically examining critical assumptions and the state of the knowledge needed to bring to fruition the products that satisfy mission-driven requirements, as defined for each element of the Work (or Product) Breakdown Structure (WBS or PBS). This methodology is sometimes referred to as the ValuStream method, as inherent in the process is the linking and prioritizing of uncertainties arising from knowledge shortfalls directly to the customer's mission driven requirements. RoSA and ValuStream are synonymous terms. RoSA is not simply an alternate or improved method for identifying risks. It represents a paradigm shift. The emphasis is placed on identifying very specific knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are the root sources of the risk (the why), rather than on assessing the WBS product(s) themselves (the what). In so doing RoSA looks forward to anticipate, identify, and prioritize knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are likely to create significant uncertainties/ risks (as compared to Root Cause Analysis, which is most often used to look back to discover what was not known, or was assumed, that caused the failure). Experience indicates that RoSA, with its primary focus on assumptions and the state of the underlying knowledge needed to define, design, build, verify, and operate the products, can identify critical risks that historically have been missed by the usual approaches (i.e., design review process and classical risk identification methods). Further, the methodology answers four critical questions for decision makers and risk managers: 1. What s been included? 2. What's been left out? 3. How has it been validated? 4. Has the real source of the uncertainty/ risk been identified, i.e., is the perceived problem the real problem? Users of the RoSA methodology

  1. An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

    1992-01-01

    An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

  2. Fatal accidents and injuries among merchant seafarers worldwide.

    PubMed

    Roberts, S E; Nielsen, D; Kotłowski, A; Jaremin, B

    2014-06-01

    The British merchant fleet has expanded in recent years but it is not known whether this expansion has led to proportionate changes in mortality. To investigate mortality from accidents and injuries in British merchant shipping, to determine whether this has increased in recent years, to compare fatal accident rates across British industries and to review fatal accident rates in merchant shipping worldwide over the last 70 years. Examinations of marine accident investigation files, death registers and death inquiry files, national mortality statistics, worldwide surveys and review methodology. The main outcome measure was the fatal accident rate per 100 000 worker-years. Of 66 deaths in British shipping from 2003 to 2012, 49 were caused by accidents, which largely affected deck ratings. The fatal accident rate in British shipping increased by 4.7% per annum from 2003, although this was not significant (95% confidence interval: -5.1 to 15.6%). During 2003-12, the fatal accident rate in shipping (14.5 per 100 000) was 21 times that in the general British workforce, 4.7 times that in the construction industry and 13 times that in manufacturing. Of 20 merchant fleets worldwide with population-based fatal accident rates, most have shown large reductions over time. The expansion of the British merchant fleet in recent years does not appear to have had a major impact on fatal accidents. Further preventive measures should target fatalities during mooring and towing operations. Internationally, most shipping fleets have over time experienced large decreases in fatal accident rates. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%.

  4. [Clinical resulting risks in the persons injured in the traffic accident depending on the role and position in the traffic].

    PubMed

    Hur'iev, S O; Chundak, S S; Satsyk, S P

    2013-03-01

    Clinical resulting risks of the abdominal organs trauma in the injured persons, as a consequence of a traffic accident, constitute an important component of multicomponent polysystem trauma for the sign of taking part in a traffic.

  5. Serum homocysteine levels in cerebrovascular accidents.

    PubMed

    Zongte, Zolianthanga; Shaini, L; Debbarma, Asis; Singh, Th Bhimo; Devi, S Bilasini; Singh, W Gyaneshwar

    2008-04-01

    Hyperhomocysteinemia has been considered an independent risk factor in the development of stroke. The present study was undertaken to evaluate serum homocysteine levels in patients with cerebrovascular accidents among the Manipuri population and to compare with the normal cases. Ninety-three cerebrovascular accident cases admitted in the hospital were enrolled for the study and twenty-seven age and sex matched individuals free from cerebrovascular diseases were taken as control group. Serum homocysteine levels were estimated by ELISA method using Axis homocysteine EIA kit manufactured by Ranbaxy Diagnostic Ltd. India. The finding suggests that hyperhomocysteinemia is associated with cerebrovascular accident with male preponderance, which increases with advancing age. However, whether hyperhomocysteinemia is the cause or the result of cerebrovascular accidents needs further investigations.

  6. Fuzzy approach for reducing subjectivity in estimating occupational accident severity.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

    2012-03-01

    Quantifying or, more generally, estimating the severity of the possible consequences of occupational accidents is a decisive step in any occupational risk assessment process. Because of the lack of historic information (accident data collection and recording are incipient and insufficient, particularly in construction) and the lack of practical tools in the construction industry, the estimation/quantification of occupational accident severity is a notably arbitrary process rather than a systematic and rigorous assessment. This work proposes several severity functions (based on a safety risk assessment) to represent biomechanical knowledge with the aim of determining the severity level of occupational accidents in the construction industry and, consequently, improving occupational risk assessment quality. We follow a fuzzy approach because it makes it possible to capture and represent imprecise knowledge in a simple and understandable way for users and specialists. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Severe Accident Scoping Simulations of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts for BWRs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Robb, Kevin R.

    2015-08-01

    Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are fuels and/or cladding that, in comparison with the standard uranium dioxide Zircaloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations [1]. It is important to note that the currently used uranium dioxide Zircaloy fuel system tolerates design basis accidents (and anticipated operational occurrences and normal operation) as prescribed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Previously, preliminary simulations of the plant response have been performed under a range of accident scenarios using various ATF cladding concepts and fully ceramicmore » microencapsulated fuel. Design basis loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO) severe accidents were analyzed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for boiling water reactors (BWRs) [2]. Researchers have investigated the effects of thermal conductivity on design basis accidents [3], investigated silicon carbide (SiC) cladding [4], as well as the effects of ATF concepts on the late stage accident progression [5]. These preliminary analyses were performed to provide initial insight into the possible improvements that ATF concepts could provide and to identify issues with respect to modeling ATF concepts. More recently, preliminary analyses for a range of ATF concepts have been evaluated internationally for LOCA and severe accident scenarios for the Chinese CPR1000 [6] and the South Korean OPR-1000 [7] pressurized water reactors (PWRs). In addition to these scoping studies, a common methodology and set of performance metrics were developed to compare and support prioritizing ATF concepts [8]. A proposed ATF concept is based on iron-chromium-aluminum alloys (FeCrAl) [9]. With respect to enhancing accident tolerance, FeCrAl alloys have substantially slower oxidation kinetics compared to the zirconium alloys typically employed. During a severe accident, Fe

  9. Wheelchair-related accidents: relationship with wheelchair-using behavior in active community wheelchair users.

    PubMed

    Chen, Wan-Yin; Jang, Yuh; Wang, Jung-Der; Huang, Wen-Ni; Chang, Chan-Chia; Mao, Hui-Fen; Wang, Yen-Ho

    2011-06-01

    To report the prevalence, mechanisms, self-perceived causes, consequences, and wheelchair-using behaviors associated with wheelchair-related accidents. A case-control study. Community. A sample of experienced, community-dwelling, active manual and powered wheelchair users (N=95) recruited from a hospital assistive technology service center. Not applicable. Wheelchair-using behaviors, wheelchair-related accidents over a 3-year period, and the mechanisms and consequences of the accidents. Among the 95 participants, 52 (54.7%) reported at least 1 accident and 16 (16.8%) reported 2 or more accidents during the 3 years prior to the interview. A total of 74 accidents, were categorized into tips and falls (87.8%), accidental contact (6.8%), and dangerous operations (5.4%). A logistic regression found individuals who failed to maintain their wheelchairs regularly (odds ratio [OR]=11.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.62-48.61) and used a wheelchair not prescribed by professionals (OR=4.31; 95% CI, 1.10-16.82) had significantly greater risks of accidents. In addition to the risk factor, lack of regular wheelchair maintenance, the Poisson regression corroborated the other risk factor, seat belts not used (incident rate ratio=2.14; 95% CI, 1.08-4.14), for wheelchair-related accidents. Wheelchair-related accidents are closely related to their wheelchair-using behaviors. Services including professional evaluation, repair, maintenance, and an educational program on proper wheelchair use may decrease the risks of wheelchair accidents. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Paralysis from sport and diving accidents.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, H; Gerner, H J

    2001-01-01

    To examine the causes of sport-related spinal cord injuries that developed into paraplegia or tetraplegia, and to compare data from different sports with previous studies in the same geographical region. A retrospective epidemiological study and comparison with previous studies. The Orthopedic Department, specializing in the treatment and rehabilitation of paralyzed patients, at the University of Heidelberg, Germany. Between 1985 and 1997, 1,016 cases of traumatic spinal cord injury presented at the Orthopedic Department at the University of Heidelberg: 6.8% were caused by sport and 7.7% by diving accidents. Sport-related spinal cord injuries with paralysis. A total of 1.016 cases of traumatic spinal cord injury were reviewed. Of these, 14.5% were caused by sport accidents (n = 69) or diving accidents (n = 78). Age of patients ranged from 9 to 52 years. 83% were male. 77% of the patients developed tetraplegia, and 23%, paraplegia. 16 of the sport accidents resulted from downhill skiing, 9 resulted from horseback riding, 7 from modern air sports, 6 from gymnastics, 5 from trampolining, and 26 from other sports. Previous analyses had revealed that paraplegia had mainly occurred from gymnastics, trampolining, or high diving accidents. More recently, however, the number of serious spinal injuries caused by risk-filled sports such as hang gliding and paragliding has significantly increased (p = 0.095), as it has for horseback riding and skiing. Examinations have shown that all patients who were involved in diving accidents developed tetraplegia. An analysis of injury from specific sports is still under way. Analysis of accidents resulting in damage to the spinal cord in respect to different sports shows that sports that have become popular during the last 10 years show an increasing risk of injury. Modern air sports hold the most injuries. Injury-preventing strategies also are presented.

  11. Doing and Unpacking De/Colonising Methodologies: Who Is at Risk?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otterstad, Ann Merete

    2007-01-01

    Contemporary research processes might be identified as having neither a beginning nor an end. This article is written as an interruption in the ending of the author's doctoral processes. The project is to critically reflect and examine complexities involving who is at risk when methodology and theory argue for displacements that unpack…

  12. Higher prevalence of toxoplasmosis in victims of traffic accidents suggest increased risk of traffic accident in Toxoplasma-infected inhabitants of Istanbul and its suburbs.

    PubMed

    Kocazeybek, Bekir; Oner, Yasar Ali; Turksoy, Recep; Babur, Cahit; Cakan, Huseyin; Sahip, Nilgun; Unal, Ali; Ozaslan, Abdi; Kilic, Selcuk; Saribas, Suat; Aslan, Mustafa; Taylan, Aysegul; Koc, Sermet; Dirican, Ahmet; Uner, Huseyin Bulent; Oz, Vecdet; Ertekin, Cemalettin; Kucukbasmaci, Omer; Torun, Müzeyyen Mamal

    2009-05-30

    Reflexes of drivers who have toxoplasmosis have been shown to deteriorate from the actions of the parasitic cysts. The cysts can change the level of the neurotransmitters such as dopamine in the brain and by doing so extend the muscle response time and change personality profiles. In this study, we aimed to determine the frequency of the latent toxoplasmosis (LT) in the driver population who were either injured or died in traffic accidents reported in Istanbul and its suburbs. We compared the results with a control group and discussed the relationship between the LT and the traffic accidents. We included 218 (89.7%) non-fatal, 25 (10.3%) fatal cases in our study as study groups. A total 243 subjects, 234 (96%) male, 9 (4%) female (who were alcohol negative) compared with 191 (95.5%) male and 9 (4.5%) female subjects (control group) who had a traffic accident before but no history of toxoplasmosis were studied. Serologic tests, enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for IgG and IgM, and microimmunoflorescence (MIF) for IgG were used as the reference test, the Sabin-Feldman Dye test (SFDT) was used. According to serologic test results, LT seroprevalence in the study groups was 130 (53.5%) and in the control group 56 (28%) (p<0.0001). A LT was present in 126 out of 234 (53.8%) males in the study groups, and 54 out of 191 (28.3%) males in the control group (p<0.0001). In the 31-44 year age group, there was a significant difference with regard to toxoplasmosis between the study subjects and control groups (p<0.0001). This difference was statistically very significant in (recent and former) cases with middle-aged men (31-44 years old). The results of this retrospective study suggest that LT in drivers, especially those who are between 31 and 44 years might increase the risk for getting involved in a car accident. In a prospective study, Toxoplasma positive and negative subjects can be monitored before they are involved in a traffic accident to clarify the cause and result relationship.

  13. Risk of Fatal Cerebrovascular Accidents after External Beam Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Glottic Larynx Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O’Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S.; Bekelman, Justin E.

    2013-01-01

    Background This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death due to CVA among patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the SEER database. Results The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8 %; 95% CI 2.3%–3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5 %; 95% CI 0.8 %–2.3%, p= 0.024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.04–2.96, p= 0.037). Conclusion Treatment of early stage glottic larynx cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. PMID:23595858

  14. Randomized clinical trials in dentistry: Risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodologic quality over the years 1955–2013

    PubMed Central

    Armijo-Olivo, Susan; Cummings, Greta G.; Amin, Maryam; Flores-Mir, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To examine the risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions and the development of these aspects over time. Methods We included 540 randomized clinical trials from 64 selected systematic reviews. We extracted, in duplicate, details from each of the selected randomized clinical trials with respect to publication and trial characteristics, reporting and methodologic characteristics, and Cochrane risk of bias domains. We analyzed data using logistic regression and Chi-square statistics. Results Sequence generation was assessed to be inadequate (at unclear or high risk of bias) in 68% (n = 367) of the trials, while allocation concealment was inadequate in the majority of trials (n = 464; 85.9%). Blinding of participants and blinding of the outcome assessment were judged to be inadequate in 28.5% (n = 154) and 40.5% (n = 219) of the trials, respectively. A sample size calculation before the initiation of the study was not performed/reported in 79.1% (n = 427) of the trials, while the sample size was assessed as adequate in only 17.6% (n = 95) of the trials. Two thirds of the trials were not described as double blinded (n = 358; 66.3%), while the method of blinding was appropriate in 53% (n = 286) of the trials. We identified a significant decrease over time (1955–2013) in the proportion of trials assessed as having inadequately addressed methodological quality items (P < 0.05) in 30 out of the 40 quality criteria, or as being inadequate (at high or unclear risk of bias) in five domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool: sequence generation, allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, other sources of bias, and overall risk of bias. Conclusions The risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions have improved over time; however, further efforts that contribute

  15. Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

    PubMed

    Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

    2015-03-01

    Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

    2013-04-01

    A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

  17. Methodology for back-contamination risk assessment for a Mars sample return mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merkhofer, M. W.; Quinn, D. J.

    1977-01-01

    The risk of back-contamination from Mars Surface Sample Return (MSSR) missions is assessed. The methodology is designed to provide an assessment of the probability that a given mission design and strategy will result in accidental release of Martian organisms acquired as a result of MSSR. This is accomplished through the construction of risk models describing the mission risk elements and their impact on back-contamination probability. A conceptual framework is presented for using the risk model to evaluate mission design decisions that require a trade-off between science and planetary protection considerations.

  18. Accidents at Nuclear Power Plants and Cancer Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... of the Chernobyl accident, survivors of the atomic bomb explosions in Japan during World War II, and ... about the health effects from the 1945 atomic bomb exposures in that country. This ongoing project is ...

  19. [An analysis of industrial accidents in the working field with a particular emphasis on repeated accidents].

    PubMed

    Wakisaka, I; Yanagihashi, T; Tomari, T; Sato, M

    1990-03-01

    The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  20. Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

    2018-06-01

    The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A macro environmental risk assessment methodology for establishing priorities among risks to human health and the environment in the Philippines

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gernhofer, S.; Oliver, T.J.; Vasquez, R.

    1994-12-31

    A macro environmental risk assessment (ERA) methodology was developed for the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) as part of the US Agency for International Development Industrial Environmental Management Project. The DENR allocates its limited resources to mitigate those environmental problems that pose the greatest threat to human health and the environment. The National Regional Industry Prioritization Strategy (NRIPS) methodology was developed as a risk assessment tool to establish a national ranking of industrial facilities. The ranking establishes regional and national priorities, based on risk factors, that DENR can use to determine the most effective allocation of itsmore » limited resources. NRIPS is a systematic framework that examines the potential risk to human health and the environment from hazardous substances released from a facility, and, in doing so, generates a relative numerical score that represents that risk. More than 3,300 facilities throughout the Philippines were evaluated successfully with the NRIPS.« less

  2. DEVELOPMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR SURFACE DISPOSAL OF MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is one of a series of reports that present methodologies for assessing the potential risks to humans or other organisms from the disposal or reuse of municipal sludge. he sludge management practices addressed by this series include distribution and marketing programs, landfi...

  3. Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Anthropotechnological analysis of industrial accidents in Brazil.

    PubMed Central

    Binder, M. C.; de Almeida, I. M.; Monteau, M.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Ministry of Labour has been attempting to modify the norms used to analyse industrial accidents in the country. For this purpose, in 1994 it tried to make compulsory use of the causal tree approach to accident analysis, an approach developed in France during the 1970s, without having previously determined whether it is suitable for use under the industrial safety conditions that prevail in most Brazilian firms. In addition, opposition from Brazilian employers has blocked the proposed changes to the norms. The present study employed anthropotechnology to analyse experimental application of the causal tree method to work-related accidents in industrial firms in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo. Three work-related accidents were examined in three industrial firms representative of local, national and multinational companies. On the basis of the accidents analysed in this study, the rationale for the use of the causal tree method in Brazil can be summarized for each type of firm as follows: the method is redundant if there is a predominance of the type of risk whose elimination or neutralization requires adoption of conventional industrial safety measures (firm representative of local enterprises); the method is worth while if the company's specific technical risks have already largely been eliminated (firm representative of national enterprises); and the method is particularly appropriate if the firm has a good safety record and the causes of accidents are primarily related to industrial organization and management (multinational enterprise). PMID:10680249

  5. Radiation Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in the Cohort of Russian Emergency Workers of the Chernobyl Accident.

    PubMed

    Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Karpenko, S V; Maksioutov, M A; Menyaylo, A N; Tumanov, K A; Kochergina, E V; Kashcheeva, P V; Gorsky, A I; Shchukina, N V; Lovachev, S S; Vlasov, O K; Ivanov, V K

    2017-07-01

    This paper continues a series of publications that analyze the impact of radiation on incidence of circulatory system diseases in the cohort of Russian recovery operation workers (liquidators) and presents the results of the analysis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. The studied cohort consists of 53,772 liquidators who arrived in the Chernobyl accident zone within the first year after the accident (26 April 1986 to 26 April 1987). The individual doses varied from 0.0001 Gy to 1.42 Gy, and the mean external whole body dose in the cohort was 0.161 Gy. A total of 27,456 cases of CVD were diagnosed during the follow-up period 1986-2012 as a result of annual health examinations. A Poisson regression model was applied to estimate radiation risks and other risk factors associated with CVD. The following factors were identified as risk factors for CVD: the dose, duration of the liquidators' work in the Chernobyl zone, and concomitant diseases (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, overweight, and alcohol dependence). The baseline incidence of CVD is statistically significantly (p < 0.001) associated with all studied concomitant diseases. The incidence of CVD has revealed a statistically significant dose response with the lack of a latent period and with the average ERR Gy = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.31, 0.63, p < 0.001. Radiation risks of CVD statistically significantly (p = 0.01) varied with the duration of liquidators' stay in the Chernobyl zone; for those who stayed in the Chernobyl zone less than 6 wk, ERR/Gy = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.53; 1.08, p < 0.001.

  6. [Early management of cerebrovascular accidents].

    PubMed

    Libot, Jérômie; Guillon, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    A cerebrovascular accident requires urgent diagnosis and treatment.The management of a stroke must be early and adapted in order to improve the overall clinical outcome and lower the risk of mortality.

  7. Case Study on Project Risk Management Planning Based on Soft System Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lifang, Xie; Jun, Li

    This paper analyzed the soft system characters of construction projects and the applicability on using Soft System Methodology (SSM) for risk analysis after a brief review of SSM. Taking a hydropower project as an example, it constructed the general frame of project risk management planning (PRMP) and established the Risk Management Planning (RMP) system from the perspective of the interests of co-ordination. This paper provided the ideas and methods for construction RMP under the win-win situation through the practice of SSM.

  8. Network-level accident-mapping: Distance based pattern matching using artificial neural network.

    PubMed

    Deka, Lipika; Quddus, Mohammed

    2014-04-01

    The objective of an accident-mapping algorithm is to snap traffic accidents onto the correct road segments. Assigning accidents onto the correct segments facilitate to robustly carry out some key analyses in accident research including the identification of accident hot-spots, network-level risk mapping and segment-level accident risk modelling. Existing risk mapping algorithms have some severe limitations: (i) they are not easily 'transferable' as the algorithms are specific to given accident datasets; (ii) they do not perform well in all road-network environments such as in areas of dense road network; and (iii) the methods used do not perform well in addressing inaccuracies inherent in and type of road environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new accident mapping algorithm based on the common variables observed in most accident databases (e.g. road name and type, direction of vehicle movement before the accident and recorded accident location). The challenges here are to: (i) develop a method that takes into account uncertainties inherent to the recorded traffic accident data and the underlying digital road network data, (ii) accurately determine the type and proportion of inaccuracies, and (iii) develop a robust algorithm that can be adapted for any accident set and road network of varying complexity. In order to overcome these challenges, a distance based pattern-matching approach is used to identify the correct road segment. This is based on vectors containing feature values that are common in the accident data and the network data. Since each feature does not contribute equally towards the identification of the correct road segments, an ANN approach using the single-layer perceptron is used to assist in "learning" the relative importance of each feature in the distance calculation and hence the correct link identification. The performance of the developed algorithm was evaluated based on a reference accident dataset from the UK confirming that

  9. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's inhalation RFD methodology: Risk assessment for air toxics

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jarabek, A.M.; Menache, M.G.; Overton, J.H.

    1989-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has advocated the establishment of general and scientific guidelines for the evaluation of toxicological data and their use in deriving benchmark values to protect exposed populations from adverse health effects. The Agency's reference dose (RfD) methodology for deriving benchmark values for noncancer toxicity originally addressed risk assessment of oral exposures. The paper presents a brief background on the development of the inhalation reference dose (RFDi) methodology, including concepts and issues related to addressing the dynamics of the respiratory system as the portal of entry. Different dosimetric adjustments are described that were incorporated intomore » the methodology to account for the nature of the inhaled agent (particle or gas) and the site of the observed toxic effects (respiratory or extrarespiratory). Impacts of these adjustments on the extrapolation of toxicity data of inhaled agents for human health risk assessment and future research directions are also discussed.« less

  10. Occupational Accidents with Agricultural Machinery in Austria.

    PubMed

    Kogler, Robert; Quendler, Elisabeth; Boxberger, Josef

    2016-01-01

    The number of recognized accidents with fatalities during agricultural and forestry work, despite better technology and coordinated prevention and trainings, is still very high in Austria. The accident scenarios in which people are injured are very different on farms. The common causes of accidents in agriculture and forestry are the loss of control of machine, means of transport or handling equipment, hand-held tool, and object or animal, followed by slipping, stumbling and falling, breakage, bursting, splitting, slipping, fall, and collapse of material agent. In the literature, a number of studies of general (machine- and animal-related accidents) and specific (machine-related accidents) agricultural and forestry accident situations can be found that refer to different databases. From the database Data of the Austrian Workers Compensation Board (AUVA) about occupational accidents with different agricultural machinery over the period 2008-2010 in Austria, main characteristics of the accident, the victim, and the employer as well as variables on causes and circumstances by frequency and contexts of parameters were statistically analyzed by employing the chi-square test and odds ratio. The aim of the study was to determine the information content and quality of the European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) variables to evaluate safety gaps and risks as well as the accidental man-machine interaction.

  11. Analysis on Dangerous Source of Large Safety Accident in Storage Tank Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tong; Li, Ying; Xie, Tiansheng; Liu, Yu; Zhu, Xueyuan

    2018-01-01

    The difference between a large safety accident and a general accident is that the consequences of a large safety accident are particularly serious. To study the tank area which factors directly or indirectly lead to the occurrence of large-sized safety accidents. According to the three kinds of hazard source theory and the consequence cause analysis of the super safety accident, this paper analyzes the dangerous source of the super safety accident in the tank area from four aspects, such as energy source, large-sized safety accident reason, management missing, environmental impact Based on the analysis of three kinds of hazard sources and environmental analysis to derive the main risk factors and the AHP evaluation model is established, and after rigorous and scientific calculation, the weights of the related factors in four kinds of risk factors and each type of risk factors are obtained. The result of analytic hierarchy process shows that management reasons is the most important one, and then the environmental factors and the direct cause and Energy source. It should be noted that although the direct cause is relatively low overall importance, the direct cause of Failure of emergency measures and Failure of prevention and control facilities in greater weight.

  12. Consequences of the radiation accident at the Mayak production association in 1957 (the 'Kyshtym Accident').

    PubMed

    Akleyev, A V; Krestinina, L Yu; Degteva, M O; Tolstykh, E I

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents an overview of the nuclear accident that occurred at the Mayak Production Association (PA) in the Russian Federation on 29 September 1957, often referred to as 'Kyshtym Accident', when 20 MCi (740 PBq) of radionuclides were released by a chemical explosion in a radioactive waste storage tank. 2 MCi (74 PBq) spread beyond the Mayak PA site to form the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). The paper describes the accident and gives brief characteristics of the efficacy of the implemented protective measures that made it possible to considerably reduce doses to the exposed population. The paper also provides retrospective dosimetry estimates for the members of the EURT Cohort (EURTC) which comprises approximately 21 400 people. During the first two years after the accident a decrease in the group average leukocyte (mainly due to neutrophils and lymphocytes) and thrombocyte count was observed in the population. At later dates an increased excess relative risk of solid cancer incidence and mortality was found in the EURTC.

  13. Accident rates and safety policies for trucks serving the San Pedro Bay ports.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-04-01

    This study estimates three distinct measures of truck-related accident risk for : several California urban highways, based on a monthly panel of accident and : traffic data spanning from January 2007 through April 2010. The first of these : risk meas...

  14. A Figure of Merit: Quantifying the Probability of a Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    PubMed

    Wellock, Thomas R

    In recent decades, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has become an essential tool in risk analysis and management in many industries and government agencies. The origins of PRA date to the 1975 publication of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Reactor Safety Study led by MIT professor Norman Rasmussen. The "Rasmussen Report" inspired considerable political and scholarly disputes over the motives behind it and the value of its methods and numerical estimates of risk. The Report's controversies have overshadowed the deeper technical origins of risk assessment. Nuclear experts had long sought to express risk in a "figure of merit" to verify the safety of weapons and, later, civilian reactors. By the 1970s, technical advances in PRA gave the methodology the potential to serve political ends, too. The Report, it was hoped, would prove nuclear power's safety to a growing chorus of critics. Subsequent attacks on the Report's methods and numerical estimates damaged the NRC's credibility. PRA's fortunes revived when the 1979 Three Mile Island accident demonstrated PRA's potential for improving the safety of nuclear power and other technical systems. Nevertheless, the Report's controversies endure in mistrust of PRA and its experts.

  15. Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005.

    PubMed

    Laursen, Lise H; Hansen, Henrik L; Jensen, Olaf C

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures.

  16. Risk assessment of oil and gas well drilling activities in Iran - a case study: human factors.

    PubMed

    Amir-Heidari, Payam; Farahani, Hadi; Ebrahemzadih, Mehrzad

    2015-01-01

    Oil and gas well drilling activities are associated with numerous hazards which have the potential to cause injury or harm for people, property and the environment. These hazards are also a threat for the reputation of drilling companies. To prevent accidents and undesired events in drilling operations it is essential to identify, evaluate, assess and control the attendant risks. In this work, a structured methodology is proposed for risk assessment of drilling activities. A case study is performed to identify, analyze and assess the risks arising from human factors in one of the on shore drilling sites in southern Iran. A total of 17 major hazards were identified and analyzed using the proposed methodology. The results showed that the residual risks of 100% of these hazards were in the acceptable or transitional zone, and their levels were expected to be lowered further by proper controls. This structured methodology may also be used in other drilling sites and companies for assessing the risks.

  17. Study of activities of postmen motorcyclists: a look at motorcycle accidents.

    PubMed

    Nascimento, Lícia Maria Barreto do; Bortolotto, Gracielle Aparecida Orlando

    2012-01-01

    This article presents the steps of transforming the material and organizational aspects in the work environment, beyond the social order for the proper development of activities in the Household Distribution Center, the Postmen Motorcyclists. The demand was made by managers from the accident records, establishing the need to identify the working conditions of postmen motorcyclists, regarding motorcycle accidents occurring on public roads. Based on the characteristics of the steps required by the methodology, was necessary to realize internal and external observations, with the aim of identifying the dynamics of the accident and the collective dimensions of activity which requires a strategy for monitoring the work on the street.

  18. Tools for improving safety management in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet occupational accidents analysis period of 1998-2006.

    PubMed

    Aasjord, Halvard L

    2006-01-01

    Reporting of human accidents in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet has always been very difficult because there has been no tradition in making reports on all types of working accidents among fishermen, if the accident does not seem to be very serious or there is no economical incentive to report. Therefore reports are only written when the accidents are serious or if the fisherman is reported sick. Reports about an accident are sent to the insurance company, but another report should also be sent to the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD). Comparing of data from one former insurance company and NMD shows that the real numbers of injuries or serious accidents among Norwegian fishermen could be up to two times more than the numbers reported to NMD. Special analyses of 1690 accidents from the so called PUS-database (NMD) for the period 1998-2002, show that the calculated risk was 23.6 accidents per 1000 man-years. This is quite a high risk level, and most of the accidents in the fishing fleet were rather serious. The calculated risks are highest for fishermen on board the deep sea fleet of trawlers (28.6 accidents per 1000 man-years) and also on the deep sea fleet of purse seiners (28.9 accidents per 1000 man-years). Fatal accidents over a longer period of 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006 are also roughly analysed. These data from SINTEF's own database show that the numbers of fatal accidents have been decreasing over this long period, except for the two periods 1980-84 and 1990-94 where we had some casualties with total losses of larger vessels with the loss of most of the crew, but also many others typical work accidents on smaller vessels. The total numbers of registered Norwegian fishermen and also the numbers of man-years have been drastically reduced over the 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006. The risks of fatal accidents have been very steady over time at a high level, although there has been a marked risk reduction since 1990-94. For the last 8.5-year period of January 1998

  19. Typical occupational accidents with employees of a university hospital in the south of Brazil: epidemiology and prevention.

    PubMed

    Sêcco, Iara Aparecida de Oliveira; Robazzi, Maria Lúcia do Carmo Cruz; Shimizu, Denise Sayuri; Rúbio, Márcia Maria da Silva

    2008-01-01

    Descriptive epidemiologic study that aimed to analyze the typical occupational accidents notified by employees of a university hospital in the South of Brazil from 1997 to 2002, and to estimate their risk indicators. A total of 717 accidents were registered; 86% of them (616) were typical and presented an annual average risk coefficient of 6.0 per 100 employees. The groups that presented more risks for accidents were cooks, woodworkers and nursing auxiliaries, while hands were the most affected area. Regarding the accidents nature, the greatest risks involved biological material. Hence, it is necessary to orient personnel about the legal aspects of occupational accidents and review work processes, especially those related to employees who perform activities at greater risk of transmissible diseases like AIDS and hepatitis B and C.

  20. Most systematic reviews of high methodological quality on psoriasis interventions are classified as high risk of bias using ROBIS tool.

    PubMed

    Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesus; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Maestre-López, Beatriz; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro Jesús; González-Padilla, Marcelino; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

    2017-12-01

    No gold standard exists to assess methodological quality of systematic reviews (SRs). Although Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) is widely accepted for analyzing quality, the ROBIS instrument has recently been developed. This study aimed to compare the capacity of both instruments to capture the quality of SRs concerning psoriasis interventions. Systematic literature searches were undertaken on relevant databases. For each review, methodological quality and bias risk were evaluated using the AMSTAR and ROBIS tools. Descriptive and principal component analyses were conducted to describe similarities and discrepancies between both assessment tools. We classified 139 intervention SRs as displaying high/moderate/low methodological quality and as high/low risk of bias. A high risk of bias was detected for most SRs classified as displaying high or moderate methodological quality by AMSTAR. When comparing ROBIS result profiles, responses to domain 4 signaling questions showed the greatest differences between bias risk assessments, whereas domain 2 items showed the least. When considering SRs published about psoriasis, methodological quality remains suboptimal, and the risk of bias is elevated, even for SRs exhibiting high methodological quality. Furthermore, the AMSTAR and ROBIS tools may be considered as complementary when conducting quality assessment of SRs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    PubMed

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Management of climatic heat stress risk in construction: a review of practices, methodologies, and future research.

    PubMed

    Rowlinson, Steve; Yunyanjia, Andrea; Li, Baizhan; Chuanjingju, Carrie

    2014-05-01

    Climatic heat stress leads to accidents on construction sites brought about by a range of human factors emanating from heat induced illness, and fatigue leading to impaired capability, physical and mental. It is an occupational characteristic of construction work in many climates and the authors take the approach of re-engineering the whole safety management system rather than focusing on incremental improvement, which is current management practice in the construction industry. From a scientific viewpoint, climatic heat stress is determined by six key factors: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) radiant heat, and (4) wind speed indicating the environment, (5) metabolic heat generated by physical activities, and (6) "clothing effect" that moderates the heat exchange between the body and the environment. By making use of existing heat stress indices and heat stress management processes, heat stress risk on construction sites can be managed in three ways: (1) control of environmental heat stress exposure through use of an action-triggering threshold system, (2) control of continuous work time (CWT, referred by maximum allowable exposure duration) with mandatory work-rest regimens, and (3) enabling self-paced working through empowerment of employees. Existing heat stress practices and methodologies are critically reviewed and the authors propose a three-level methodology for an action-triggering, localized, simplified threshold system to facilitate effective decisions by frontline supervisors. The authors point out the need for "regional based" heat stress management practices that reflect unique climatic conditions, working practices and acclimatization propensity by local workers indifferent geographic regions. The authors set out the case for regional, rather than international, standards that account for this uniqueness and which are derived from site-based rather than laboratory-based research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

    2013-01-01

    Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

  4. Accident rates amongst regular bicycle riders in Tasmania, Australia.

    PubMed

    Palmer, Andrew J; Si, Lei; Gordon, Jared M; Saul, Tim; Curry, Beverley A; Otahal, Petr; Hitchens, Peta L

    2014-11-01

    To characterise the demographics, cycling habits and accident rates of adult cyclists in Tasmania. Volunteers ≥18 years of age who had cycled at least once/week over the previous month provided information on demographics; cycling experience; bicycles owned; hours/km/trips cycled per week; cycling purpose; protective equipment used; and major (required third-party medical treatment or resulted ≥1 day off work) or minor (interfered with individuals' regular daily activities and/or caused financial costs) accidents while cycling. Over 8-months, 136 cyclists (70.6% male) completed the telephone survey. Mean (standard deviation) age was 45.4 (12.1) years with 17.1 (11.4) years of cycling experience. In the week prior to interview, cyclists averaged 6.6 trips/week (totalling 105.7km or 5.0h). The most common reason for cycling was commuting/transport (34% of trips), followed by training/health/fitness (28%). The incidence of major and minor cycling accidents was 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.0) and 3.7 (2.3-5.0) per 100,000km, respectively. Male sex was associated with a significantly lower minor accident risk (incidence rate ratio=0.34, p=0.01). Mountain biking was associated with a significantly higher risk of minor accident compared with road or racing, touring, and city or commuting biking (p<0.05). Physical activity of regular cyclists' exceeds the level recommended for maintenance of health and wellbeing; cyclists also contributed substantially to the local economy. Accident rates are higher in this sample than previously reported in Tasmania and internationally. Mountain biking was associated with higher risks of both major and minor accidents compared to road/racing bike riding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk of thyroid follicular adenoma among children and adolescents in Belarus exposed to iodine-131 after the Chornobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Zablotska, Lydia B; Nadyrov, Eldar A; Polyanskaya, Olga N; McConnell, Robert J; O'Kane, Patrick; Lubin, Jay; Hatch, Maureen; Little, Mark P; Brenner, Alina V; Veyalkin, Ilya V; Yauseyenka, Vasilina V; Bouville, Andre; Drozdovitch, Vladimir V; Minenko, Viktor F; Demidchik, Yuri E; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Rozhko, Alexander V

    2015-11-01

    Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 ((131)I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual (131)I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at <2 years of age. Follicular adenoma radiation risks were not significantly modified by most indicators of past and current iodine deficiency. The present study confirms the (131)I-associated increases in risk of follicular adenoma in the Ukrainian population and adds new evidence on the risk increasing with decreasing age at exposure. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Empirical Bayesian Geographical Mapping of Occupational Accidents among Iranian Workers.

    PubMed

    Vahabi, Nasim; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan; Datta, Somnath

    2017-05-01

    Work-related accidents are believed to be a serious preventable cause of mortality and disability worldwide. This study aimed to provide Bayesian geographical maps of occupational injury rates among workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization. The participants included all insured workers in the Iranian Social Security Organization database in 2012. One of the applications of the Bayesian approach called the Poisson-Gamma model was applied to estimate the relative risk of occupational accidents. Data analysis and mapping were performed using R 3.0.3, Open-Bugs 3.2.3 rev 1012 and ArcMap9.3. The majority of all 21,484 investigated occupational injury victims were male (98.3%) including 16,443 (76.5%) single workers aged 20 - 29 years. The accidents were more frequent in basic metal, electric, and non-electric machining jobs. About 0.4% (96) of work-related accidents led to death, 2.2% (457) led to disability (partial and total), 4.6% (980) led to fixed compensation, and 92.8% (19,951) of the injured victims recovered completely. The geographical maps of estimated relative risk of occupational accidents were also provided. The results showed that the highest estimations pertained to provinces which were mostly located along mountain chains, some of which are categorized as deprived provinces in Iran. The study revealed the need for further investigation of the role of economic and climatic factors in high risk areas. The application of geographical mapping together with statistical approaches can provide more accurate tools for policy makers to make better decisions in order to prevent and reduce the risks and adverse outcomes of work-related accidents.

  7. Description of Various Factors Contributing to Traffic Accidents in Youth and Measures Proposed to Alleviate Recurrence.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Ludovic; Ordonneau, Pauline; Blot, Emilie; Toillon, Charlotte; Ingrand, Pierre; Romo, Lucia

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the leading cause of hospitalization in adolescence, with the 18-24-year-old age group accounting for 23% of deaths by traffic accidents. Recurrence rate is also high. One in four teenagers will have a relapse within the year following the first accident. Cognitive impairments known in adolescence could cause risky behaviors, defined as repetitive engagement in dangerous situations such as road accidents. Two categories of factors seem to be associated with traffic accidents: (1) factors specific to the traffic environment and (2) "human" factors, which seem to be the most influential. Moreover, the establishment of a stronger relation to high speed driving increases traffic accident risks and can also be intensified by sensation seeking. Other factors such as substance use (alcohol, drugs, and "binge drinking") are also identified as risk factors. Furthermore, cell phone use while driving and attention deficit disorder with or without hyperactivity also seem to be important risk factors for car accidents. The family environment strongly influences a young person's driving behavior. Some interventional driving strategies and preventive measures have reduced the risk of traffic accidents among young people, such as the graduated driver licensing program and advertising campaigns. So far, few therapeutic approaches have been implemented. Reason why, we decided to set up an innovative strategy consisting of a therapeutic postaccident group intervention, entitled the ECARR2 protocol, to prevent recurrence among adolescents and young adults identified at risk, taking into account the multiple risk factors.

  8. Risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents after external beam radiation therapy for early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer.

    PubMed

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O'Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S; Bekelman, Justin E

    2014-05-01

    This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) in patients with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death because of CVA among patients with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3% to 3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5%; 95% CI, 0.8% to 2.3%; p = .024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.04-2.96; p = .037). Treatment for early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.

    PubMed

    Saenko, V; Ivanov, V; Tsyb, A; Bogdanova, T; Tronko, M; Demidchik, Yu; Yamashita, S

    2011-05-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the worst industrial accident of the last century that involved radiation. The unprecedented release of multiple different radioisotopes led to radioactive contamination of large areas surrounding the accident site. The exposure of the residents of these areas was varied and therefore the consequences for health and radioecology could not be reliably estimated quickly. Even though some studies have now been ongoing for 25 years and have provided a better understanding of the situation, these are yet neither complete nor comprehensive enough to determine the long-term risk. A true assessment can only be provided after following the observed population for their natural lifespan. Here we review the technical aspects of the accident and provide relevant information on radioactive releases that resulted in exposure of this large population to radiation. A number of different groups of people were exposed to radiation: workers involved in the initial clean-up response, and members of the general population who were either evacuated from the settlements in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant vicinity shortly after the accident, or continued to live in the affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Through domestic efforts and extensive international co-operation, essential information on radiation dose and health status for this population has been collected. This has permitted the identification of high-risk groups and the use of more specialised means of collecting information, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up. Because radiation-associated thyroid cancer is one of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, a particular emphasis is placed on this malignancy. The initial epidemiological studies are reviewed, as are the most significant studies and/or aid programmes in the three affected countries. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  10. [Fatal occupational accidents in Lombardy].

    PubMed

    Pianosi, G

    1995-01-01

    All fatal occupational accidents compensated in Lombardy from 1984 to 1989 were analyzed (1259 cases): significant differences between geographical distribution of fatal occupational accidents and workers were observed. Males accounted for about 95% of fatalities; an excess of cases was shown in both young and elderly workers. Death was the consequence of injuries involving most frequently the head, thorax and spinal cord. An excess of fatalities was observed in agriculture and, at a lower level, in manufacturing industries; small enterprises were involved in approximately 25% of fatalities occurring in the manufacturing industries and services. Employers were the victims of fatal accidents in 50% of cases in agriculture and in 70% of cases in craft industries. Construction, agriculture and transport accounted for about 50% of all fatalities. About 50% of fatal occupational accidents were related to vehicle use: the victim was the driver in the majority of cases, sometimes the victim was run over by a vehicle or fell from a vehicle. The results agree with some previous observations (e.g.: sex and age distribution; construction, agriculture and transport as working activities at high accident risk); but some original observations have emerged, in particular about the frequency of employers as victims and the role of vehicles in the genesis of fatal occupational accidents. If further studies confirm these latter observations, important developments could follow in preventive action design and implementation.

  11. Assessment of methodologies for analysis of the dungeness B accidental aircraft crash risk.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-09-01

    The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has requested Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to review the aircraft crash methodology for nuclear facilities that are being used in the United Kingdom (UK). The scope of the work included a review of one method utilized in the UK for assessing the potential for accidental airplane crashes into nuclear facilities (Task 1) and a comparison of the UK methodology against similar International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), United States (US) Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) methods (Task 2). Based on the conclusions from Tasks 1 and 2, an additionalmore » Task 3 would provide an assessment of a site-specific crash frequency for the Dungeness B facility using one of the other methodologies. This report documents the results of Task 2. The comparison of the different methods was performed for the three primary contributors to aircraft crash risk at the Dungeness B site: airfield related crashes, crashes below airways, and background crashes. The methods and data specified in each methodology were compared for each of these risk contributors, differences in the methodologies were identified, and the importance of these differences was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. The bases for each of the methods and the data used were considered in this assessment process. A comparison of the treatment of the consequences of the aircraft crashes was not included in this assessment because the frequency of crashes into critical structures is currently low based on the existing Dungeness B assessment. Although the comparison found substantial differences between the UK and the three alternative methodologies (IAEA, NRC, and DOE) this assessment concludes that use of any of these alternative methodologies would not change the conclusions reached for the Dungeness B site. Performance of Task 3 is thus not recommended.« less

  12. Spatiotemporal Analysis for Wildlife-Vehicle Based on Accident Statistics of the County Straubing-Bogen in Lower Bavaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagany, R.; Dorner, W.

    2016-06-01

    During the last years the numbers of wildlife-vehicle-collisions (WVC) in Bavaria increased considerably. Despite the statistical registration of WVC and preventive measures at areas of risk along the roads, the number of such accidents could not be contained. Using geospatial analysis on WVC data of the last five years for county Straubing-Bogen, Bavaria, a small-scale methodology was found to analyse the risk of WVC along the roads in the investigated area. Various indicators were examined, which may be related to WVC. The risk depends on the time of the day and year which shows correlations in turn to the traffic density and wildlife population. Additionally the location of the collision depends on the species and on different environmental parameters. Accidents seem to correlate with the land use left and right of the street. Land use data and current vegetation were derived from remote sensing data, providing information of the general land use, also considering the vegetation period. For this a number of hot spots was selected to identify potential dependencies between land use, vegetation and season. First results from these hotspots show, that WVCs do not only depend on land use, but may show a correlation with the vegetation period. With regard to agriculture and seasonal as well as annual changes this indicates that warnings will fail due to their static character in contrast to the dynamic situation of land use and resulting risk for WVCs. This shows that there is a demand for remote sensing data with a high spatial and temporal resolution as well as a methodology to derive WVC warnings considering land use and vegetation. With remote sensing data, it could become possible to classify land use and calculate risk levels for WVC. Additional parameters, derived from remote sensed data that could be considered are relief and crops as well as other parameters such as ponds, natural and infrastructural barriers that could be related to animal behaviour and

  13. Corporate cost of occupational accidents: an activity-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Rikhardsson, Pall M; Impgaard, Martin

    2004-03-01

    The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating occupational costs of companies for use by occupational health and safety professionals. The method was tested in nine Danish companies within three different industry sectors and the costs of 27 selected occupational accidents in these companies were calculated. One of the main conclusions is that the SACA method could be used in all of the companies without revisions. The evaluation of accident cost showed that 2/3 of the costs of occupational accidents are visible in the Danish corporate accounting systems reviewed while 1/3 is hidden from management view. The highest cost of occupational accidents for a company with 3.600 employees was estimated to approximately US$ 682.000. The paper includes an introduction regarding accident cost analysis in companies, a presentation of the SACA project methodology and the SACA method itself, a short overview of some of the results of the SACA project and a conclusion. Further information about the project is available at http://www.asb.dk/saca.

  14. Nutritional variables and work-related accidents: a case-control study.

    PubMed

    de Medeiros, M A T; Zangirolani, Lia Thieme Oikawa; Cordeiro, Ricardo Carlos; da Costa, Proença Rossana Pacheco; Diez-Garcia, Rosa Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Nutritional aspects are important for the prevention of diseases and disorders, and few studies have focused on the relationship between risk of work injury and nutritional variables. This study aimed to verify whether nutritional variables constitute risk factors for work-related accidents. 1,422 industrial workers (600 cases plus 822 controls). A case-control study was carried out in an industrial city in south-east Brazil. A multiple logistic regression model was adjusted using work-related accidents as the response variable and nutritional variables as predictors. The associations were assessed by Odds Ratio (OR), with a p-value < 0.05. 47.29% of the workers were overweight or obese. Protective factors for work-related accidents were (a) attending formal education for an above average number of years (OR=0.91, p< 0.0001) and (b) eating a traditional dinner (OR=0.67, p=0.0087). Risks factors were (a) hard physical effort in the workplace (OR=1.37, p< 0.0001), (b) having lunch in the workplace (OR=1.57, p<0.0001) and (c) receiving government benefits in the form of food stamps (OR=1.39, p=0.0350) or food baskets (OR=1.30, p=0.0414). Our findings suggest an association between nutritional variables and work-related accidents. This indicates the need, during the formulation of policies for these kinds of government benefits, to include nutrition aspects in order to minimize work-related accidents risks.

  15. Derailment-based Fault Tree Analysis on Risk Management of Railway Turnout Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; An, Min; Gigante-Barrera, Ángel

    2017-10-01

    Railway turnouts are fundamental mechanical infrastructures, which allow a rolling stock to divert one direction to another. As those are of a large number of engineering subsystems, e.g. track, signalling, earthworks, these particular sub-systems are expected to induce high potential through various kind of failure mechanisms. This could be a cause of any catastrophic event. A derailment, one of undesirable events in railway operation, often results, albeit rare occurs, in damaging to rolling stock, railway infrastructure and disrupt service, and has the potential to cause casualties and even loss of lives. As a result, it is quite significant that a well-designed risk analysis is performed to create awareness of hazards and to identify what parts of the systems may be at risk. This study will focus on all types of environment based failures as a result of numerous contributing factors noted officially as accident reports. This risk analysis is designed to help industry to minimise the occurrence of accidents at railway turnouts. The methodology of the study relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood, and is based on statistical multiple factors-integrated accident rate analysis. The study is prepared in the way of establishing product risks and faults, and showing the impact of potential process by Boolean algebra.

  16. The three essentials for accident prevention.

    PubMed

    Eastman, Crystal

    2014-11-01

    This article was written by Crystal Eastman when she was Secretary of the New York Commission on Employers' Liability and Causes of Industrial Accidents, Unemployment, and Lack of Farm Labor. It was published in July of 1911, in Volume 38, Number 1 of the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, pages 98-107. The issue title was "Risks in Modern Industry." Eastman calls for the prevention of workplace accidents through three essentials: injury surveillance/reporting (with annual public reporting of the data); government enforcement of accident prevention laws, via departments with well-paid and well-trained officials and inspectors, fines that are high enough to be a deterrence to employers, and the power to have police shut down a factory if preventive measures are not installed; and a workers' compensation system-"a system of liability by which an employer can reduce his accident costs, not by hiring a more unscrupulous attorney and a more hard-hearted claim agent, but only by reducing his accidents."

  17. Stressful life events and occupational accidents.

    PubMed

    Cordeiro, Ricardo; Dias, Adriano

    2005-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the association between stressful life events and occupational accidents. This was a population-based case-control study, carried out in the city of Botucatu, in southeast Brazil. The cases consisted of 108 workers who had recently experienced occupational accidents. Each case was matched with three controls. The cases and controls answered a questionnaire about recent exposure to stressful life events. Reporting of "environmental problems", "being a victim of assault", "not having enough food at home" and "nonoccupational fatigue" were found to be risk factors for work-related accidents with estimated incidence rate ratios of 1.4 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-1.7], 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.7), 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.6), and 1.4 (95% CI 1.2-1.7) respectively. The findings of the study suggested that nonwork variables contribute to occupational accidents, thus broadening the understanding of these phenomena, which can support new approaches to the prevention of occupational accidents.

  18. A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2010-12-01

    Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

  19. Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio

    2009-03-15

    This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union.

  20. Laterality, spatial abilities, and accident proneness.

    PubMed

    Voyer, Susan D; Voyer, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Although handedness as a measure of cerebral specialization has been linked to accident proneness, more direct measures of laterality are rarely considered. The present study aimed to fill that gap in the existing research. In addition, individual difference factors in accident proneness were further examined with the inclusion of mental rotation and navigation abilities measures. One hundred and forty participants were asked to complete the Mental Rotations Test, the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction scale, the Greyscales task, the Fused Dichotic Word Test, the Waterloo Handedness Questionnaire, and a grip strength task before answering questions related to number of accidents in five areas. Results indicated that handedness scores, absolute visual laterality score, absolute response time on the auditory laterality index, and navigation ability were significant predictors of the total number of accidents. Results are discussed with respect to cerebral hemispheric specialization and risk-taking attitudes and behavior.

  1. Methodology for national risk analysis and prioritization of toxic industrial chemicals.

    PubMed

    Taxell, Piia; Engström, Kerstin; Tuovila, Juha; Söderström, Martin; Kiljunen, Harri; Vanninen, Paula; Santonen, Tiina

    2013-01-01

    The identification of chemicals that pose the greatest threat to human health from incidental releases is a cornerstone in public health preparedness for chemical threats. The present study developed and applied a methodology for the risk analysis and prioritization of industrial chemicals to identify the most significant chemicals that pose a threat to public health in Finland. The prioritization criteria included acute and chronic health hazards, physicochemical and environmental hazards, national production and use quantities, the physicochemical properties of the substances, and the history of substance-related incidents. The presented methodology enabled a systematic review and prioritization of industrial chemicals for the purpose of national public health preparedness for chemical incidents.

  2. The role of parental risk judgements, transport safety attitudes, transport priorities and accident experiences on pupils' walking to school.

    PubMed

    Mehdizadeh, Milad; Nordfjaern, Trond; Mamdoohi, Amir Reza; Shariat Mohaymany, Afshin

    2017-05-01

    Walking to school could improve pupils' health condition and might also reduce the use of motorized transport modes, which leads to both traffic congestion and air pollution. The current study aims to examine the role of parental risk judgements (i.e. risk perception and worry), transport safety attitudes, transport priorities and accident experiences on pupils' walking and mode choices on school trips in Iran, a country with poor road safety records. A total of 1078 questionnaires were randomly distributed among pupils at nine public and private schools in January 2014 in Rasht, Iran. Results from valid observations (n=711) showed that parents with high probability assessments of accidents and strong worry regarding pupils' accident risk while walking were less likely to let their children walk to school. Parents with high safety knowledge were also more likely to allow their pupils to walk to school. Parents who prioritized convenience and accessibility in transport had a stronger tendency to choose motorized modes over walking modes. Also, parents who prioritized safety and security in transport were less likely to allow pupils to walk to school. Elasticities results showed that a one percent increase in priorities of convenience and accessibility, priorities of safety and security, car ownership and walking time from home to school reduced walking among pupils by a probability of 0.62, 0.20, 0.86 and 0.57%, respectively. A one percent increase in parental safety knowledge increased the walking probability by around 0.25%. A 1 unit increase in parental probability assessment and worry towards pupils' walking, decreased the probability of choosing walking mode by 0.11 and 0.05, respectively. Policy-makers who aim to promote walking to schools should improve safety and security of the walking facilities and increase parental safety knowledge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Traffic crash accidents in Tehran, Iran: Its relation with circadian rhythm of sleepiness.

    PubMed

    Sadeghniiat-Haghighi, Khosro; Yazdi, Zohreh; Moradinia, Mohsen; Aminian, Omid; Esmaili, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are one of main problems in Iran. Multiple factors cause traffic accidents and the most important one is sleepiness. This factor, however, is given less attention in our country. Road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness are studied. In this cross-sectional study, all road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness, which were reported by police, were studied in Tehran province in 2009. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was increased by more than sevenfold (odds ratio = 7.33) in low alertness hours (0:00-6:00) compared to other time of day. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was decreased by 0.15-fold (odds ratio = 0.15) in hours with maximum of alertness (18:00-22:00) of circadian rhythm compared to other time of day. The occurrence of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness has significant statistical relations with driving during lowest point of alertness of circadian rhythm.

  4. [Knowledge of accident causation research in relation to age-induced decrease in the performance of elderly motorists, their accident risk and legal consequences].

    PubMed

    Seib, H

    1990-01-01

    Elderly motorists lose a significant amount of their mental(-somatic) and sensomotor capabilities. No data is available on the percentage of elderly motorists involved in car accidents. Their accident risk, however, is not above average because that decrease is outweighed by increased experience and a more thoughtful manner of driving. The percentage of elderly, especially female pedestrians killed by autos is very high. This is mainly due to age-specific mortality and to the high proportion of aged people, especially women, within the population. Our jurisdiction concerning responsibilities requires elderly people to become aware of any deficiencies and to take them into account. The administrative courts are very reserved in withdrawing driving licenses because of age-caused deficiencies. The mere fact that a driver is very old does not suffice; it even does not justify seeking a psychomedical opinion. In this paper it is argued that actions provided for by the law and regulations asking for a periodical check-up of sensomotor and mental capabilities of the elderly driver are disproportionate. Introducing an "eye-certificate" for all motorists as suggested by the German Ophthalmological Society, however, is considered useful and appropriate since deficiencies of vision have been discovered for all age groups.

  5. Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

    PubMed

    Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

    2018-01-01

    Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Individual factors explain neighbourhood variations in accidents to children under 5 years of age.

    PubMed

    Reading, Richard; Jones, Andrew; Haynes, Robin; Daras, Konstantinos; Emond, Alan

    2008-09-01

    Previous studies have identified possible neighbourhood-level influences on the risk of injuries to preschool children, but none have had sufficient data at both household and area level to explain these neighbourhood effects. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, which recruited over 14,062 children at birth in the former county of Avon, UK, and collected information about accidents, as well as extensive social, health and developmental data throughout the first 5 years of life. This information was combined with census and geographical data in order to identify neighbourhood influences on accident risks and then attempt to explain these using multilevel regression modelling. A small but statistically significant amount of between-neighbourhood variance in accident risk was found, with neighbourhood intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.82% for any accident, and 0.84% for accidents resulting in injury requiring medical attention. This was entirely accounted for by a variety of child, parental and household level variables. Independent risk factors for both outcomes were children who were developmentally more advanced or displayed greater conduct and behavioural problems, mothers who were of younger age, who were without work, who were smokers, whose partners were unemployed or drank alcohol excessively, and households in which there had recently been adverse life events, or which were under financial stress. The mother's perceptions of neighbourhood quality also explained some of the risks for any accident, but not for medically attended accidents, and this was a variable that operated at the level of individual households rather than at the level of neighbourhoods. The implications of this study are that differences in accident risk between neighbourhoods are explained by geographical clustering of similar types of children, families and households. Interventions should focus more on parental factors and household social

  7. Description of Various Factors Contributing to Traffic Accidents in Youth and Measures Proposed to Alleviate Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Gicquel, Ludovic; Ordonneau, Pauline; Blot, Emilie; Toillon, Charlotte; Ingrand, Pierre; Romo, Lucia

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the leading cause of hospitalization in adolescence, with the 18–24-year-old age group accounting for 23% of deaths by traffic accidents. Recurrence rate is also high. One in four teenagers will have a relapse within the year following the first accident. Cognitive impairments known in adolescence could cause risky behaviors, defined as repetitive engagement in dangerous situations such as road accidents. Two categories of factors seem to be associated with traffic accidents: (1) factors specific to the traffic environment and (2) “human” factors, which seem to be the most influential. Moreover, the establishment of a stronger relation to high speed driving increases traffic accident risks and can also be intensified by sensation seeking. Other factors such as substance use (alcohol, drugs, and “binge drinking”) are also identified as risk factors. Furthermore, cell phone use while driving and attention deficit disorder with or without hyperactivity also seem to be important risk factors for car accidents. The family environment strongly influences a young person’s driving behavior. Some interventional driving strategies and preventive measures have reduced the risk of traffic accidents among young people, such as the graduated driver licensing program and advertising campaigns. So far, few therapeutic approaches have been implemented. Reason why, we decided to set up an innovative strategy consisting of a therapeutic postaccident group intervention, entitled the ECARR2 protocol, to prevent recurrence among adolescents and young adults identified at risk, taking into account the multiple risk factors. PMID:28620324

  8. Injury protection and accident causation parameters for vulnerable road users based on German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS.

    PubMed

    Otte, Dietmar; Jänsch, Michael; Haasper, Carl

    2012-01-01

    Within a study of accident data from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), vulnerable road users are investigated regarding injury risk in traffic accidents. GIDAS is the largest in-depth accident study in Germany. Due to a well-defined sampling plan, representativeness with respect to the federal statistics is also guaranteed. A hierarchical system ACASS (Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps) was developed in GIDAS, describing the human causation factors in a chronological sequence. The accordingly classified causation factors - derived from the systematic of the analysis of human accident causes ("7 steps") - can be used to describe the influence of accident causes on the injury outcome. The bases of the study are accident documentations over ten years from 1999 to 2008 with 8204 vulnerable road users (VRU), of which 3 different groups were selected as pedestrians n=2041, motorcyclists n=2199 and bicyclists n=3964, and analyzed on collisions with cars and trucks as well as vulnerable road users alone. The paper will give a description of the injury pattern and injury mechanisms of accidents. The injury frequencies and severities are pointed out considering different types of VRU and protective measures of helmet and clothes of the human body. The impact points are demonstrated on the car, following to conclusion of protective measures on the vehicle. Existing standards of protection devices as well as interdisciplinary research, including accident and injury statistics, are described. With this paper, a summarization of the existing possibilities on protective measures for pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists is given and discussed by comparison of all three groups of vulnerable road users. Also the relevance of special impact situations and accident causes mainly responsible for severe injuries are pointed out, given the new orientation of research for the avoidance and reduction of accident patterns. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Industrial accidents are related to relative body weight: the Israeli CORDIS study.

    PubMed Central

    Froom, P; Melamed, S; Kristal-Boneh, E; Gofer, D; Ribak, J

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The accident rate might be influenced by intrinsic characteristics of the workers, by risks inherent in the work environment, or a combination of these factors. As increased weight may be associated with sleep disturbances and fatigue, a high body mass index (BMI) might be an independent risk factor for accidents in industrial workers. METHODS: 3801 men were examined and followed up for two years for the occurrence of accidents. The objective environmental conditions were recorded and translated into a single score of ergonomic stress levels. Height and weight were recorded, as were possible confounding factors including measures of fatigue, type A personality, total night time sleep, job satisfaction, somatic complaints, smoking, and education levels. RESULTS: Both BMI and ergonomic stress levels independently predicted involvement in accidents (two or more) with those in the highest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with high ergonomic stress levels having a 4-6 times increased risk of accidents compared with those in the lowest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with low ergonomic stress levels (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.4-9.0, P < 0.001). Although increasing somatic complaints and a low educational level also were predictors of accidents, they did not mediate the effect of the BMI on the accident rate. Increasing age, less smoking, and decreased sleep hours were significantly associated with an increased BMI, but the association of BMI and involvement in accidents also could not be explained by those factors or the other confounders. CONCLUSIONS: BMI independently influences the accident rate. Further studies warranted to confirm these findings and to explore mechanisms supporting biological plausibility. PMID:9004929

  10. [Analisys of work-related accidents and incidents in an oil refinery in Rio de Janeiro].

    PubMed

    de Souza, Carlos Augusto Vaz; de Freitas, Carlos Machado

    2003-01-01

    Accidents in the chemical industry can have serious consequences for workers, communities, and the environment and are thus highly relevant to public health. This article is the result of an occupational surveillance project involving several public institutions. We analyze 800 work-related accidents that resulted in injuries, environmental damage, or loss of production in 1997 in an oil refinery located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The methodology was based on managerial and organizational approaches to accident investigation, with the European Union reporting system as the reference. The results highlight various limitations in the process of reporting and investigating accidents, as well as a certain hierarchy of accidents, with more attention given to accidents involving loss of production and less to those resulting in injuries, particularly among outsourced workers.

  11. Exploring inattention and distraction in the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database.

    PubMed

    Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen; Morris, Andrew

    2013-11-01

    Distraction and inattention are considered to be very important and prevalent factors in the causation of road accidents. There have been many recent research studies which have attempted to understand the circumstances under which a driver becomes distracted or inattentive and how distraction/inattention can be prevented. Both factors are thought to have become more important in recent times partly due to the evolution of in-vehicle information and communication technology. This study describes a methodology that was developed to understand when factors such as distraction and inattention may have been contributors to crashes and also describes some of the consequences of distraction and inattention in terms of subsequent driver actions. The study uses data relating to distraction and inattention from the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database. This database was formulated as part of the SafetyNet project to address the lack of representative in-depth accident causation data within the European Union. Data were collected in 6 European countries using 'on-scene' and 'nearly on-scene' crash investigation methodologies. 32% of crashes recorded in the database, involved at least one driver, rider or pedestrian, who was determined to be 'Inattentive' or 'Distracted'. 212 of the drivers were assigned 'Distraction' and 140 drivers were given the code 'Inattention'. It was found that both distraction and inattention often lead to missed observations within the driving task and consequently 'Timing' or 'Direction' become critical events in the aetiology of crashes. In addition, the crash types and outcomes may differ according to the type and nature of the distraction and inattention as determined by the in-depth investigations. The development of accident coding methodology is described in this study as is its evolution into the Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Model (DREAM) version 3.0. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. School accidents in Austria.

    PubMed

    Schalamon, Johannes; Eberl, Robert; Ainoedhofer, Herwig; Singer, Georg; Spitzer, Peter; Mayr, Johannes; Schober, Peter H; Hoellwarth, Michael E

    2007-09-01

    The aim of this study was to obtain information about the mechanisms and types of injuries in school in Austria. Children between 0 and 18 years of age presenting with injuries at the trauma outpatient in the Department of Pediatric Surgery in Graz and six participating hospitals in Austria were evaluated over a 2-year prospective survey. A total of 28,983 pediatric trauma cases were registered. Personal data, site of the accident, circumstances and mechanisms of accident and the related diagnosis were evaluated. At the Department of Pediatric Surgery in Graz 21,582 questionnaires were completed, out of which 2,148 children had school accidents (10%). The remaining 7,401 questionnaires from peripheral hospitals included 890 school accidents (12%). The male/female ratio was 3:2. In general, sport injuries were a predominant cause of severe trauma (42% severe injuries), compared with other activities in and outside of the school building (26% severe injuries). Injuries during ball-sports contributed to 44% of severe injuries. The upper extremity was most frequently injured (34%), followed by lower extremity (32%), head and neck area (26%) and injuries to thorax and abdomen (8%). Half of all school related injuries occur in children between 10 and 13 years of age. There are typical gender related mechanisms of accident: Boys get frequently injured during soccer, violence, and collisions in and outside of the school building and during craft work. Girls have the highest risk of injuries at ball sports other than soccer.

  13. An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

    2003-09-01

    This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

  14. Instruments for Assessing Risk of Bias and Other Methodological Criteria of Published Animal Studies: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Krauth, David; Woodruff, Tracey J.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Results from animal toxicology studies are critical to evaluating the potential harm from exposure to environmental chemicals or the safety of drugs prior to human testing. However, there is significant debate about how to evaluate the methodology and potential biases of the animal studies. There is no agreed-upon approach, and a systematic evaluation of current best practices is lacking. Objective: We performed a systematic review to identify and evaluate instruments for assessing the risk of bias and/or other methodological criteria of animal studies. Method: We searched Medline (January 1966–November 2011) to identify all relevant articles. We extracted data on risk of bias criteria (e.g., randomization, blinding, allocation concealment) and other study design features included in each assessment instrument. Discussion: Thirty distinct instruments were identified, with the total number of assessed risk of bias, methodological, and/or reporting criteria ranging from 2 to 25. The most common criteria assessed were randomization (25/30, 83%), investigator blinding (23/30, 77%), and sample size calculation (18/30, 60%). In general, authors failed to empirically justify why these or other criteria were included. Nearly all (28/30, 93%) of the instruments have not been rigorously tested for validity or reliability. Conclusion: Our review highlights a number of risk of bias assessment criteria that have been empirically tested for animal research, including randomization, concealment of allocation, blinding, and accounting for all animals. In addition, there is a need for empirically testing additional methodological criteria and assessing the validity and reliability of a standard risk of bias assessment instrument. Citation: Krauth D, Woodruff TJ, Bero L. 2013. Instruments for assessing risk of bias and other methodological criteria of published animal studies: a systematic review. Environ Health Perspect 121:985–992 (2013); http://dx.doi.org/10

  15. Accidents in Germany: evaluation of the german telephone health survey 2004.

    PubMed

    Saß, Anke-Christine

    2008-09-01

    In the year 2006 there were over 19 000 fatal accidents in Germany and estimates put the number of accidental injuries at more than 8 million. Detailed information on the pattern of accidents is indispensable for the definition of priorities in accident prevention. The German Telephone Health Survey 2004 provides representative cross-sectional data on the health of German residents from 18 years of age (n = 7341). Questions on the prevalence of accidents (13 items) were selected for analysis. Every tenth interviewee reported being injured in an accident in the previous 12 months. Men, particularly young men, are at greater risk of accidents than women. Almost one third of all accidents occurred at home. Social status had no influence on the probability of having an accident, but did affect where the accident happened. The survey yields information on the overall pattern of non-fatal accidents in Germany. The data point to target groups for accident prevention measures.

  16. The influence of passenger car front shape on pedestrian injury risk observed from German in-depth accident data.

    PubMed

    Li, Guibing; Lyons, Mathew; Wang, Bingyu; Yang, Jikuang; Otte, Dietmar; Simms, Ciaran

    2017-04-01

    Quantified relationships between passenger car front shape and pedestrian injury risk derived from accident data are sparse, especially considering the significant recent changes in car front design. The purpose of this paper is therefore to investigate the detailed effects of passenger car front shape on injury risk to a pedestrian's head, thorax, pelvis and leg in the event of a vehicle pedestrian impact. Firstly, an accident sample of 594 pedestrian cases captured during 2000-2015 from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database was employed. Multicollinearity diagnostic statistics were then used to detect multicollinearity between the predictors. Following this, logistic regression was applied to quantify the effects of passenger car front shape on injury risks while controlling for impact speed and pedestrian age. Results indicate that the bumper lower depth (BLD), bumper lower height (BLH), bumper upper height (BUH) and normalised bumper lower/upper height (NBLH/NBUH) are statistically significant for AIS2+ leg injury risk. The normalised bonnet leading edge height (NBLEH) has a statistically significant influence on AIS2+ femur/pelvis injury occurrence. The passenger car front shape did not show statistical significance for AIS3+ thorax and head injuries. The impact speed and pedestrian age are generally significant factors influencing AIS2+ leg and pelvis injuries, and AIS3+ thorax and head injuries. However, when head impacts are fixed on the central windscreen region both pedestrian age and impact speed are not statistically significant for AIS3+ head injury. For quantified effects, when controlling for speed, age and BUH, an average 7% and 6% increase in AIS2+ leg injury odds was observed for every 1cm increase in BLD and BLH respectively; 1cm increase in BUH results in a 7% decrease in AIS2+ leg injury odds when the BLD or BLH are fixed respectively (again controlling for impact speed and pedestrian age); the average AIS2+ femur/pelvis injury

  17. How to identify the key factors that affect driver perception of accident risk. A comparison between Italian and Spanish driver behavior.

    PubMed

    de Oña, Juan; de Oña, Rocio; Eboli, Laura; Forciniti, Carmen; Mazzulla, Gabriella

    2014-12-01

    Road crashes can be caused by different factors, including infrastructure, vehicles, and human variables. Many research studies have focused solely on identifying the key factors that cause road crashes. From these studies, it emerged that human factors have the most relevant impact on accident severity. More specifically, accident severity depends on several factors related directly to the driver, i.e., driving experience, driver's socio-economic characteristics, and driving behavior and attitudes. In this paper, we investigate driver behaviors and attitudes while driving and specifically focus on different methods for identifying the factors that most affect the driver's perception of accident risk. To this end, we designed and conducted a survey in two different European contexts: the city of Cosenza, which is located in the south of Italy, and the city of Granada, which is located in the south of Spain. Samples of drivers were contacted for their opinions on certain aspects of driving rules and attitudes while driving, and different types of questions were addressed to the drivers to assess their judgments of these aspects. Consequently, different methods of data analysis were applied to determine the aspects that heavily influence driver perception of accident risk. An experiment based on the stated preferences (SP) was carried out with the drivers, and the SP data were analyzed using an ordered probit (OP) model. Interesting findings emerged from different analyses of the data and from the comparisons among the data collected in the two different territorial contexts. We found that both Italian and Spanish drivers consider driving in an altered psychophysical state and violating the overtaking rules to be the most risky behaviors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [Assessment and control of health risk caused by the radiological accident at the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant].

    PubMed

    Matsuda, Naoki; Morita, Naoko; Miura, Miwa

    2014-01-01

    The accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on March 11, 2011, released a large amount of radioactive materials resulting in the radioactive contamination of a wide area of eastern Japan. Residents of the Fukushima prefecture experienced various unavoidable damages and fear of radiation effects on their health. A reliable communication of accurate risk assessment for residents is required as a countermeasure aimed at the reconstruction of Fukushima. Here, the current status of individual dose estimation and the issues relating to the radiation risk perception are discussed.

  19. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occurmore » in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.« less

  20. An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

    1992-01-01

    An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

  1. [Severe parachuting accident. Analysis of 122 cases].

    PubMed

    Krauss, U; Mischkowsky, T

    1993-06-01

    Based on a population of 122 severely injured patients the causes of paragliding accidents and the patterns of injury are analyzed. A questionnaire is used to establish a sport-specific profile for the paragliding pilot. The lower limbs (55.7%) and the lower parts of the spine (45.9%) are the most frequently injured parts of the body. There is a high risk of multiple injuries after a single accident because of the tremendous axial power. The standard of equipment is good in over 90% of the cases. Insufficient training and failure to take account of geographical and meteorological conditions are the main determinants of accidents sustained by paragliders, most of whom are young. Nevertheless, 80% of our patients want to continue paragliding. Finally some advice is given on how to prevent paragliding accidents and injuries.

  2. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Effectiveness of electronic stability control on single-vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Lyckegaard, Allan; Hels, Tove; Bernhoft, Inger Marie

    2015-01-01

    This study aims at evaluating the effectiveness of electronic stability control (ESC) on single-vehicle injury accidents while controlling for a number of confounders influencing the accident risk. Using police-registered injury accidents from 2004 to 2011 in Denmark with cars manufactured in the period 1998 to 2011 and the principle of induced exposure, 2 measures of the effectiveness of ESC were calculated: The crude odds ratio and the adjusted odds ratio, the latter by means of logistic regression. The logistic regression controlled for a number of confounding factors, of which the following were significant. For the driver: Age, gender, driving experience, valid driving license, and seat belt use. For the vehicle: Year of registration, weight, and ESC. For the accident surroundings: Visibility, light, and location. Finally, for the road: Speed limit, surface, and section characteristics. The present study calculated the crude odds ratio for ESC-equipped cars of getting in a single-vehicle injury accident as 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.47) and the adjusted odds ratio as 0.69 (95% CI, 0.54-0.88). No difference was found in the effectiveness of ESC across the injury severity categories (slight, severe, and fatal). In line with previous results, this study concludes that ESC reduces the risk for single-vehicle injury accidents by 31% when controlling for various confounding factors related to the driver, the car, and the accident surroundings. Furthermore, it is concluded that it is important to control for human factors (at a minimum age and gender) in analyses where evaluations of this type are performed.

  4. Sports aviation accidents: fatality and aircraft specificity.

    PubMed

    de Voogt, Alexander J; van Doorn, Robert R A

    2010-11-01

    Sports aviation is a special category of general aviation characterized by diverse aircraft types and a predominantly recreational flight operation. A general comparison of aircraft accidents within sports aviation is missing, but should guide future research. A comparison of accidents in sports aviation was made using 2118 records from the National Transportation Safety Board for the period 1982-2007. In addition, the available denominator data from the Federal Aviation Administration were used to interpret the data. The highest number of accidents was found with gliders (N = 991), but the highest relative number of fatal accidents came from ultra-light (45%) and gyroplane operations (40%), which are homebuilt more often than other aircraft types. The most common cause of accident in sports aviation was in-flight planning and decision-making (N = 200, 9.4%). The most frequent occurrences were hard landings and undershoots, of which the numbers differ significantly from one aircraft type to the other. Homebuilt aircraft are at particular risk in sports aviation. Although denominator data remain problematic for motorized sports aviation, these aircraft show a high proportion of homebuilt aircraft and, more importantly, a higher relative number of fatal accidents.

  5. Insomnia is associated with road accidents. Further evidence from a study on truck drivers.

    PubMed

    Garbarino, Sergio; Magnavita, Nicola; Guglielmi, Ottavia; Maestri, Michelangelo; Dini, Guglielmo; Bersi, Francesca Maria; Toletone, Alessandra; Chiorri, Carlo; Durando, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Sleep-related problems are known risk factors for road accidents. However, very few studies have investigated the role played by insomnia and its components, and no data are available for a population of occupational drivers at risk, such as the truck driver category. To measure the prevalence and impact of insomnia on motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) and near-miss accidents (NMAs) in 949 truck drivers. Cross-sectional survey. Insomnia affected 27.5% of the sample. Compared to other drivers, in the 3 years prior to the study, truck drivers with insomnia had reported a significantly higher number of MVAs; they had also reported a greater number of NMAs in the previous 6 months. After correction for the presence of obstructive sleep apnea, excessive daytime sleepiness, short sleep duration, and other concurrent diseases, insomniac truck drivers had an almost two-fold risk of driving accidents (OR: 1.82, CI 95%:1.33-2.49) and a more than three-fold increased risk of near-miss accidents (OR: 3.35, CI95%:2.06-5.45) compared to non-insomniac drivers. Insomnia emerged as an independent risk factor for MVAs and NMAs. We strongly advise screening commercial drivers for signs and symptoms of insomnia in order to improve health and safety on the road.

  6. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

    PubMed Central

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents’ risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP. PMID:26057539

  7. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

    PubMed

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents' risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP.

  8. Tenth Warren K. Sinclair keynote address-the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-02-01

    Just two years have passed since the Tokyo Electric Power Company-Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, a multidimensional disaster that combined to destroy the local infrastructure on which the safety system depended and gave a serious impact to the world. Countermeasures including evacuation, sheltering, and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese government. However, there is a clear need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection and also in the management of the radiation health risk during and even after the accident. To date there have been no acute radiation injuries. The radiation-related physical health consequences to the general public, including evacuees, are likely to be much lower than those arising from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, because the radiation fallout and the subsequent environmental contamination were much more limited. However, the social, psychological, and economic impacts of the Fukushima NPP accident are expected to be considerable. Currently, continued monitoring and characterization of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are vital for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the areas already radiocontaminated and returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is permitted; it is also important to perform a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. We are currently implementing the official plans of the Fukushima Health Management Survey, which includes a basic survey for the estimation of the external doses that were received during the first 4 mo after the accident and four more detailed surveys (thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and life-style survey, and survey of pregnant women and nursing mothers), with the aim to take care of the health of all of the residents of the Fukushima Prefecture for a long time

  9. Severe accidents in the energy sector: comparative perspective.

    PubMed

    Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Spiekerman, Gerard; Dones, Roberto

    2004-07-26

    This paper addresses one of the controversial issues in the current comparative studies of the environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues, though some social implications are also touched upon. The assessment concerns fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. The scope is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains but, whenever applicable, also includes exploration, extraction, transports, processing, storage and waste disposal. With the exception of the nuclear chain the focus of the work has been on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis used for this evaluation is a comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-related Severe Accident Database), established by the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic technique has also been employed and extended to cover the assessment of economic consequences of such accidents. The broader picture obtained by coverage of full energy chains leads on the world-wide basis to aggregated immediate fatality rates being much higher for the fossil chains than what one would expect if only power plants were considered. Generally, the immediate fatality rates are for all considered energy carriers significantly higher for the non-OECD countries than for OECD countries. In the case of hydro and nuclear the difference is in fact dramatic. The presentation of results is not limited to the aggregated values specific for each energy chain. Also frequency-consequence curves are provided. They reflect implicitly the ranking based on the aggregated values but include also such information as the observed or predicted chain-specific maximum extents of damages. This perspective on severe accidents may lead to different system

  10. On the divergences in assessment of environmental impacts from ionising radiation following the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Strand, P; Sundell-Bergman, S; Brown, J E; Dowdall, M

    2017-04-01

    The accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on March 11, 2011, led to significant contamination of the surrounding terrestrial and marine environments. Whilst impacts on human health remain the primary concern in the aftermath of such an accident, recent years have seen a significant body of work conducted on the assessment of the accident's impacts on both the terrestrial and marine environment. Such assessments have been undertaken at various levels of biological organisation, for different species, using different methodologies and coming, in many cases, to divergent conclusions as to the effects of the accident on the environment. This article provides an overview of the work conducted in relation to the environmental impacts of the Fukushima accident, critically comparing and contrasting methodologies and results with a view towards finding reasons for discrepancies, should they indeed exist. Based on the outcomes of studies conducted to date, it would appear that in order to avoid the fractured and disparate conclusions drawn in the aftermath of previous accidents, radioactive contaminants and their effects can no longer simply be viewed in isolation with respect to the ecosystems these effects may impact. A combination of laboratory based and field studies with a focus on ecosystem functioning and effects could offer the best opportunities for coherence in the interpretation of the results of studies into the environmental impacts of ionising radiation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. How do user experiences with different transport modes affect the risk of traffic accidents? From the viewpoint of licence possession status.

    PubMed

    Nakai, Hiroshi; Usui, Shinnosuke

    2017-02-01

    Road accidents between different modes of transport-such as between automobiles and pedestrians, automobiles and bicycles, or automobiles and motorcycles-are frequent. In such cases, it is important to consider the other side's perspective. This involves the ability to correctly judge, for every given situation, how other people on the road perceive their surroundings and what they intend to do next. In this paper, we conduct two types of studies assuming that this kind of ability to consider perspectives is higher when the person is licenced to drive the mode of transport used by the other party. For Study 1, we analysed accidents involving senior citizens between the ages of 65 and 74 years, who collided with automobiles as pedestrians or cyclists (1656 and 3192 cases respectively), in terms of the accident category and type of road at the accident spot. The results indicate that possession or non-possession of a licence was irrelevant for accidents involving cyclists, but for accidents with pedestrians, senior citizens who did not possess a licence are likely to be involved in a greater number of accidents in places that require interaction with automobiles, such as while crossing at crosswalks or at intersections. For Study 2, we reviewed 875 ordinary first-class licence practical test examinees, categorised them according to their licence possession status (motorcycle licence, moped licence, or no licence), and made a category-wise comparison of the test instructor's assessment of their ability to make a left turn. The results showed that those who had a motorcycle or moped licence tended to make a left turn more safely. Thus, the results indicate that experience with different modes of transport is likely to reduce the risk of accidents. These findings may be used to popularise educational interventions encouraging users of various transport modes to consider the perspective of others (i.e. via perspective-taking). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  12. Indonesian Sea Accident Analysis (Case Study From 2003 – 2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arya Dewanto, Y.; Faturachman, D.

    2018-03-01

    There are so many accidents in sea transportation in Indonesia. Most of the accidents happen because of low concern aspects of the safety and security of the crew. In sailing, a man as transport users to interact with the ship and the surrounding environment (including other ships, cruise lines, ports, and the situation of local conditions). These interactions are sometimes very complex and related to various aspects of. Aware of the multiplicity of aspects related to the third of these factors, seeking the safety of cruise through a reduction in the number of accidents and the risk of death and serious injuries due to accidents and goods transported is certainly not enough attempted through mono-sector approach, but rather takes a multi-sector approach to the efforts. In this paper, we described the Indonesian Sea Transportation accident analysis for eleven years divided into four items: total of ship accident type, ship accident factor, total of casualties, region of ship accidents. All data founded from Marine Court (Mahkamah Pelayaran). From that 4 items we can find Indonesia Sea Accident Analysis from 2003-2013.

  13. 10-year evaluation of train accidents.

    PubMed

    Akkaş, Meltem; Ay, Didem; Metin Aksu, Nalan; Günalp, Müge

    2011-09-01

    Although less frequent than automobile accidents, train accidents have a major impact on victims' lives. Records of patients older than 16 years of age admitted to the Adult Emergency Department of Hacettepe University Medical Center due to train accidents were retrospectively evaluated. 44 patients (30 males, 14 females) with a mean age of 31.8±11.4 years were included in the study. The majority of the accidents occurred during commuting hours. 37 patients were discharged, 22 of them from the emergency department. The mortality rate was 7/44 (16%). Overall mean Revised Trauma Score (RTS) was 10.5 (3 in deaths and 11.9 in survivors). In 5 patients, the cause of death was pelvic trauma leading to major vascular injury and lower limb amputation. In 1 patient, thorax and abdomen trauma and in 1 patient head injury were the causes of mortality. Primary risk factors for mortality were alcohol intoxication (100%), cardiopulmonary resuscitation on admittance (100%), recurrent suicide attempt (75%), presence of psychiatric illness (60%), and low RTS. In this study, most train accidents causing minor injuries were due to falling from the train prior to acceleration. Nevertheless, train accidents led to a mortality rate of 16% and morbidity rate of 37%. These findings draw attention to the importance of developing preventive strategies.

  14. Harmonised pesticide risk trend indicator for food (HAPERITIF): The methodological approach.

    PubMed

    Calliera, Maura; Finizio, Antonio; Azimonti, Giovanna; Benfenati, Emilio; Trevisan, Marco

    2006-12-01

    To provide a harmonised European approach for pesticide risk indicators, the Sixth EU Framework Programme recently financed the HAIR (HArmonised environmental Indicators for pesticide Risk) project. This paper illustrates the methodology underlying a new indicator-HAPERITIF (HArmonised PEsticide RIsk Trend Indicator for Food), developed in HAIR, for tracking acute and chronic pesticide risk trends for consumers. The acute indicator, HAPERITIF(ac), is based on the ratio between an estimated short-term intake (ESTI), calculated as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and the acute reference dose (ARfD); the chronic indicator HAPERITIF(chr) is based on the ratio between an estimated daily intake (EDI) and the admissible daily intake (ADI). HAPERITIF can be applied at different levels of aggregation. Each level gives information for proper risk management of pesticides to reduce the risk associated with food consumption. An example of application using realistic scenarios of pesticide treatments on a potato crop in central-northern Italy is reported to illustrate the different steps of HAPERITIF. Copyright 2006 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Postoperative cerebrovascular accidents in general surgery.

    PubMed

    Larsen, S F; Zaric, D; Boysen, G

    1988-11-01

    In a prospective study of postoperative complications, strokes occurred in 6 out of 2463 patients (0.2%) who underwent non-cardiac, non-carotid artery surgery. The patients who experienced cerebrovascular accidents, including three cases of transient ischemic attack, were significantly older than the rest of the group (mean age 79 years versus 65 years) and had manifestations of atherosclerosis in at least one organ preoperatively. Significant predictors of risk for postoperative cerebrovascular accidents were previous cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and hypertension. Cerebrovascular accidents occurred late in the postoperative period, 5-26 days after surgery, and were not directly related to surgery and anesthesia. They were more frequent after acute than after elective operations. Precipitating factors for some of the stroke incidents were rapid atrial fibrillation and postoperative dehydration.

  16. Proposal and application of a regional methodology of comparative risk assessment for potentially contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Marzocchini, Manrico; Tatàno, Fabio; Moretti, Michela Simona; Antinori, Caterina; Orilisi, Stefano

    2018-06-05

    A possible approach for determining soil and groundwater quality criteria for contaminated sites is the comparative risk assessment. Originating from but not limited to Italian interest in a decentralised (regional) implementation of comparative risk assessment, this paper first addresses the proposal of an original methodology called CORIAN REG-M , which was created with initial attention to the context of potentially contaminated sites in the Marche Region (Central Italy). To deepen the technical-scientific knowledge and applicability of the comparative risk assessment, the following characteristics of the CORIAN REG-M methodology appear to be relevant: the simplified but logical assumption of three categories of factors (source and transfer/transport of potential contamination, and impacted receptors) within each exposure pathway; the adaptation to quality and quantity of data that are available or derivable at the given scale of concern; the attention to a reliable but unsophisticated modelling; the achievement of a conceptual linkage to the absolute risk assessment approach; and the potential for easy updating and/or refining of the methodology. Further, the application of the CORIAN REG-M methodology to some case-study sites located in the Marche Region indicated the following: a positive correlation can be expected between air and direct contact pathway scores, as well as between individual pathway scores and the overall site scores based on a root-mean-square algorithm; the exposure pathway, which presents the highest variability of scores, tends to be dominant at sites with the highest computed overall site scores; and the adoption of a root-mean-square algorithm can be expected to emphasise the overall site scoring.

  17. External dose assessment in the Ukraine following the Chernobyl accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frazier, Remi Jordan Lesartre

    While the physiological effects of radiation exposure have been well characterized in general, it remains unclear what the relationship is between large-scale radiological events and psychosocial behavior outcomes in individuals or populations. To investigate this, the National Science Foundation funded a research project in 2008 at the University of Colorado in collaboration with Colorado State University to expand the knowledge of complex interactions between radiation exposure, perception of risk, and psychosocial behavior outcomes by modeling outcomes for a representative sample of the population of the Ukraine which had been exposed to radiocontaminant materials released by the reactor accident at Chernobyl on 26 April 1986. In service of this project, a methodology (based substantially on previously published models specific to the Chernobyl disaster and the Ukrainian population) was developed for daily cumulative effective external dose and dose rate assessment for individuals in the Ukraine for as a result of the Chernobyl disaster. A software platform was designed and produced to estimate effective external dose and dose rate for individuals based on their age, occupation, and location of residence on each day between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 2009. A methodology was developed to transform published 137Cs soil deposition contour maps from the Comprehensive Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident into a geospatial database to access these data as a radiological source term. Cumulative effective external dose and dose rate were computed for each individual in a 703-member cohort of Ukrainians randomly selected to be representative of the population of the country as a whole. Error was estimated for the resulting individual dose and dose rate values with Monte Carlo simulations. Distributions of input parameters for the dose assessment methodology were compared to computed dose and dose rate estimates to determine which

  18. Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

    PubMed

    Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

    2018-02-01

    Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Accident epidemiology and the U.S. chemical industry: accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info.

    PubMed

    Kleindorfer, Paul R; Belke, James C; Elliott, Michael R; Lee, Kiwan; Lowe, Robert A; Feldman, Harold I

    2003-10-01

    This article reports on the data collected on one of the most ambitious government-sponsored environmental data acquisition projects of all time, the Risk Management Plan (RMP) data collected under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This RMP Rule 112(r) was triggered by the Bhopal accident in 1984 and led to the requirement that each qualifying facility develop and file with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency a Risk Management Plan (RMP) as well as accident history data for the five-year period preceding the filing of the RMP. These data were collected in 1999-2001 on more than 15,000 facilities in the United States that store or use listed toxic or flammable chemicals believed to be a hazard to the environment or to human health of facility employees or off-site residents of host communities. The resulting database, RMP*Info, has become a key resource for regulators and researchers concerned with the frequency and severity of accidents, and the underlying facility-specific factors that are statistically associated with accident and injury rates. This article analyzes which facilities actually filed under the Rule and presents results on accident frequencies and severities available from the RMP*Info database. This article also presents summaries of related results from RMP*Info on Offsite Consequence Analysis (OCA), an analytical estimate of the potential consequences of hypothetical worst-case and alternative accidental releases on the public and environment around the facility. The OCA data have become a key input in the evaluation of site security assessment and mitigation policies for both government planners as well as facility managers and their insurers. Following the survey of the RMP*Info data, we discuss the rich set of policy decisions that may be informed by research based on these data.

  20. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Hyojoon; Park, Misun; Jeong, Haesun; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents. PMID:24619120

  1. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhegang Ma

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

  2. Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

    PubMed

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

  3. The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's inhalation RfD methodology: Risk assessment for air toxics

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jarabek, A.M.; Menache, M.G.; Overton, J.H. Jr.

    1990-10-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has advocated the establishment of general and scientific guidelines for the evaluation of toxicological data and their use in deriving benchmark values to protect exposed populations from adverse health effects. The Agency's reference dose (RfD) methodology for deriving benchmark values for noncancer toxicity originally addressed risk assessment of oral exposures. This paper presents a brief background on the development of the inhalation reference dose (RfDi) methodology, including concepts and issues related to addressing the dynamics of the respiratory system as the portal of entry. Different dosimetric adjustments are described that were incorporated intomore » the methodology to account for the nature of the inhaled agent (particle or gas) and the site of the observed toxic effects (respiratory or extra-respiratory). Impacts of these adjustments on the extrapolation of toxicity data of inhaled agents for human health risk assessment and future research directions are also discussed.« less

  4. Atrial fibrillation, CHA2DS2-VASc score, antithrombotics and risk of traffic accidents: A population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Lai, Hui-Chin; Chien, Wu-Chien; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Lee, Wen-Lieng; Wang, Kuo-Yang; Wu, Tsu-Juey; Liu, Chia-Ning; Liu, Tsun-Jui

    2015-10-15

    Traffic accidents account for a substantial proportion of premature disabilities and deaths. Whether atrial fibrillation (AF) provokes while antithrombotics prevent from such events remains un-investigated. All patients ≥40years with newly diagnosed AF in 2005 were scrutinized from the "Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005" (1 million beneficiaries) of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Institute as the AF group. Four-fold number of age-, gender-, and comorbidity-matched patients but without AF served as the Non-AF controls. Patients were followed till occurrence of hospitalization-requiring traffic injury, death, withdrawal from insurance, or the end of 2010. Cumulative incidence of traffic accidents was compared between groups, and predictors and preventive role of antithrombotics for these accidents were identified by Cox regression analysis. Within a mean follow-up of 4.3years, traffic injury occurred significantly more often in patients with AF (N=1724) than those without it (N=6896) (5.4 vs. 4.9 per 1000 person-years, log-rank p=0.012, HR 1.110, 95% CI 1.013-1.572). Cox models identified age ≧65years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, stroke, liver cirrhosis and CHADS2VASC score≧1 as risk factors for traffic injury in AF patients, whereas oral anticoagulants (HR 0.576, 95% CI 0.285-0.791, p=0.002) used in patients with CHADS2VASC score ≧1 but not antiplatelet therapy (p=0.197) as negative predictors. Patients with AF are more vulnerable to traffic accidents especially when with higher CHADS2VASC scores and other comorbidities. This tendency to traffic accidents, however, could be ameliorated by oral anticoagulation in specialized cases but not by antiplatelet therapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

    2012-04-01

    Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The

  6. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  7. Short-Term Medical Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Lessons for the Future

    PubMed Central

    Gale, Robert Peter

    1988-01-01

    The author of this article discusses the world's most serious nuclear accident to date: the Chernobyl nuclear accident of April 1986. His major focus is on the short-term medical consequences of the accident, including reduction of exposure to persons at risk, evaluation of persons potentially affected, dosimetry, and specific medical interventions. PMID:21253129

  8. [Cerebrovascular accidents: risk factors, clinical course and prognosis in the Cardiology "B" Service of the du Point G University Hospital Center, Bamako].

    PubMed

    Coulibaly, S; Diakité, S; Diall, I B; Menta, I; Sacko, A K; Diallo, B

    2010-01-01

    Our study of series, futurology, descriptive and analytical proceeded in the service of Cardiology B of the CHU of the Point G of the 1(er) July at 31 Décember 2007 and related to 57 in-patients. It aimed to release the factors of risks, to evaluate under treatment the evolution and to determine the prognostic elements of the cerebral vascular accidents. All the patients hospitalized in the service of Cardiology G for the period of study for cerebral vascular accident documented by a cerebral TDM was included in the series. The cerebral vascular accidents represented more of the quarter (25,22 %) of the admissions. The sample counted 29 women (50,9 %) and 28 men (49,1 %) with a sex ratio of 1,03 in favour of the women. The average age was 61,17 years ± 13,71 there. Arterial hypertension (59,6 %) was the first factor of risk and in the series the ischaemic AVC constituted approximately three quarters (70,2 %) of the organic types. It was especially male and the rather female hemorrhagic lesion. The hemorrhagic AVC was noted before 30 years and the ischaemic AVC beyond. The complications were with female prevalence and identical lethality in the two sexes. The hospital death rate in the study was considerable (10,5 %). The found prognostic elements did not have statistical significance.

  9. [Nursing Care Sistematization: accident by Loxosceles gaucho].

    PubMed

    Kamimura, Helayne Mika; Paiva, Bianca Sakamoto Ribeiro; Ayres, Jairo Aparecido

    2009-01-01

    Experience report carried out at a university hospital involving a patient victimized by an accident with a spider of the Loxosceles gaucho genus. This type of accident can be classified as mild, moderate and severe, depending on the period of time elapsed between the occurrence of the accident and the moment of care provision. We aimed at applying nursing care systematization in a comprehensive and humanized manner. The following nursing diagnoses were established: acute pain, damaged skin integrity, risks for infection, constipation and low self-esteem. The therapeutic relationship favored student/patient interactions and enabled the recognition of the needs that deserved nursing interventions. The nursing process was a valuable instrument and provided important elements for the patient's daily development and planning adjustment by prioritizing care quality.

  10. Vulnerability assessment of chemical industry facilities in South Korea based on the chemical accident history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heo, S.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.; Kim, M. I.

    2016-12-01

    The use of chemical compounds are keep increasing because of their use in manufacturing industry. Chemical accident is growing as the consequence of the chemical use increment. Devastating damages from chemical accidents are far enough to aware people's cautious about the risk of the chemical accident. In South Korea, Gumi Hydrofluoric acid leaking accident triggered the importance of risk management and emphasized the preventing the accident over the damage reducing process after the accident occurs. Gumi accident encouraged the government data base construction relate to the chemical accident. As the result of this effort Chemical Safety-Clearing-house (CSC) have started to record the chemical accident information and damages according to the Harmful Chemical Substance Control Act (HCSC). CSC provide details information about the chemical accidents from 2002 to present. The detail informations are including title of company, address, business type, accident dates, accident types, accident chemical compounds, human damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, human damage outside of the chemical industry facilities, financial damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, and financial damages outside of the chemical industry facilities, environmental damages and response to the chemical accident. Collected the chemical accident history of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and provide the spatial information to the each accident records based on their address. With the spatial information, compute the data on ArcGIS for the spatial-temporal analysis. The spatial-temporal information of chemical accident is organized by the chemical accident types, damages, and damages on environment and conduct the spatial proximity with local community and environmental receptors. Find the chemical accident vulnerable area of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and add the vulnerable area of total period to examine the historically vulnerable area from the chemical accident in

  11. [The meaning of accidents with biological material to nursing professionals].

    PubMed

    Magagnini, Maristela Aparecida Magri; Rocha, Suelen Alves; Ayres, Jairo Aparecido

    2011-06-01

    The aim of this study is to understand what meaning work accidents with exposure to biological material has to nurses. This is an exploratory study with a qualitative approach, and it used Bardin's content analysis. 87 accidents with biological material occurred in the period between 2001 and 2006; among them, eight were seropositive for Hepatitis B and C and HIV/AIDS. An interview with guiding questions was used to collect data. When inquiring these professionals about the meaning of these accidents, four categories emerged: risk situation, danger perception, fatality, and feelings. Although it is not a strategy of clarification, it is a fact that work organization and educative actions have considerable impact in reducing this type of accident, also reducing damage to the life of nurses involved in these accidents.

  12. Risk perception in consumer product use.

    PubMed

    Weegels, M F; Kanis, H

    2000-05-01

    In the literature, at least two distinct connotations of risk can be found: so called objective risk, defined as the ratio of a particular number of accidents and a measure of exposure, and subjective risk, defined as the perception and awareness of risks by the person(s) involved. This article explores the significance of risk perception and awareness in understanding and clarifying how and why accidents involving consumer products occur. Based on empirical evidence from video-recorded reconstructions of accidents with consumer products, the risk perception and awareness of users in relation to featural and functional product characteristics, and their influence on actual product use culminating in an accident, is addressed. In contrast with what is usually assumed in the literature, the findings show that the majority of the subjects had no idea that they were running any risk of injuring themselves while they operated the product. In several accidents, the product either offered functionalities not anticipated in the design or did not adequately reflect its condition. The implications of the findings for design practice as well as for risk research are discussed.

  13. Alcohol abuse and involvement in traffic accidents in the Brazilian population, 2013.

    PubMed

    Damacena, Giseli Nogueira; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Boccolini, Cristiano Siqueira; Souza, Paulo Roberto Borges de; Almeida, Wanessa da Silva de; Ribeiro, Lucas Sisinno; Szwarcwald, Célia Landmann

    2016-12-01

    Abstract This article aims to analyze alcohol abuse and frequent consumption according to sociodemographic characteristics and investigate the risk of greater involvement in traffic accidents, using data from the National Health Survey (PNS), 2013, Brazil. Events investigated were alcohol abuse and frequent consumption and if the individual was involved in a traffic accident and sustained an injury in the last 12 months. We investigated both events according to sociodemographic characteristics and assessed the association among them through multivariate logistic regression. The prevalence of alcohol abuse and frequent consumption was 6.1% for the population aged 18 years and over, 8.9% among men and 3.6% among women. The prevalence of involvement in traffic accidents was 3.1% in the general population and 6.1% among those who reported alcohol abuse. After controlling for sociodemographic factors, alcohol abuse and frequent consumption was significantly associated with traffic accidents. Considering a higher risk of involvement in traffic accidents among individuals who reported alcohol abuse and frequent consumption, monitoring blood alcohol concentration of drivers becomes a strategic possibility of intervention.

  14. What are the factors that contribute to road accidents? An assessment of law enforcement views, ordinary drivers' opinions, and road accident records.

    PubMed

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Regev, Shirley; Moutari, Salissou; Feeney, Aidan

    2018-06-01

    What are the main contributing factors to road accidents? Factors such as inexperience, lack of skill, and risk-taking behaviors have been associated with the collisions of young drivers. In contrast, visual, cognitive, and mobility impairment have been associated with the collisions of older drivers. We investigated the main causes of road accidents by drawing on multiple sources: expert views of police officers, lay views of the driving public, and official road accident records. In Studies 1 and 2, police officers and the public were asked about the typical causes of road traffic collisions using hypothetical accident scenarios. In Study 3, we investigated whether the views of police officers and the public about accident causation influence their recall accuracy for factors reported to contribute to hypothetical road accidents. The results show that both expert views of police officers and lay views of the driving public closely approximated the typical factors associated with the collisions of young and older drivers, as determined from official accident records. The results also reveal potential underreporting of factors in existing accident records, identifying possible inadequacies in law enforcement practices for investigating driver distraction, drug and alcohol impairment, and uncorrected or defective eyesight. Our investigation also highlights a need for accident report forms to be continuously reviewed and updated to ensure that contributing factor lists reflect the full range of factors that contribute to road accidents. Finally, the views held by police officers and the public on accident causation influenced their memory recall of factors involved in hypothetical scenarios. These findings indicate that delay in completing accident report forms should be minimised, possibly by use of mobile reporting devices at the accident scene. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Sharit, J

    2000-08-01

    This article introduces and develops a modeling framework for exposing risks in the form of human errors and adverse consequences in high-risk systems. The modeling framework is based on two components: a two-dimensional theory of accidents in systems developed by Perrow in 1984, and the concept of multiple system perspectives. The theory of accidents differentiates systems on the basis of two sets of attributes. One set characterizes the degree to which systems are interactively complex; the other emphasizes the extent to which systems are tightly coupled. The concept of multiple perspectives provides alternative descriptions of the entire system that serve to enhance insight into system processes. The usefulness of these two model components derives from a modeling framework that cross-links them, enabling a variety of work contexts to be exposed and understood that would otherwise be very difficult or impossible to identify. The model components and the modeling framework are illustrated in the case of a large and comprehensive trauma care system. In addition to its general utility in the area of risk analysis, this methodology may be valuable in applications of current methods of human and system reliability analysis in complex and continually evolving high-risk systems.

  16. Traffic accidents involving fatigue driving and their extent of casualties.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Zhang, Xun; Li, Yanyan

    2016-02-01

    The rapid progress of motorization has increased the number of traffic-related casualties. Although fatigue driving is a major cause of traffic accidents, the public remains not rather aware of its potential harmfulness. Fatigue driving has been termed as a "silent killer." Thus, a thorough study of traffic accidents and the risk factors associated with fatigue-related casualties is of utmost importance. In this study, we analyze traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. The study data were extracted from the traffic accident database of China's Public Security Department. A logistic regression model is used to assess the effect of driver characteristics, type of vehicles, road conditions, and environmental factors on fatigue-related traffic accident occurrence and severity. On the one hand, male drivers, trucks, driving during midnight to dawn, and morning rush hours are identified as risk factors of fatigue-related crashes but do not necessarily result in severe casualties. Driving at night without street-lights contributes to fatigue-related crashes and severe casualties. On the other hand, while factors such as less experienced drivers, unsafe vehicle status, slippery roads, driving at night with street-lights, and weekends do not have significant effect on fatigue-related crashes, yet accidents associated with these factors are likely to have severe casualties. The empirical results of the present study have important policy implications on the reduction of fatigue-related crashes as well as their severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Sleep apnea and occupational accidents: Are oral appliances the solution?

    PubMed

    Rabelo Guimarães, Maria De Lourdes; Hermont, Ana Paula

    2014-05-01

    Dental practitioners have a key role in the quality of life and prevention of occupational accidents of workers with Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS). The aim of this study was to review the impact of OSAS, the Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) therapy, and the evidence regarding the use of oral appliances (OA) on the health and safety of workers. Searches were conducted in MEDLINE (PubMed), Lilacs and Sci ELO. Articles published from January 1980 to June 2014 were included. The research retrieved 2188 articles and 99 met the inclusion criteria. An increase in occupational accidents due to reduced vigilance and attention in snorers and patients with OSAS was observed. Such involvements were related to excessive daytime sleepiness and neurocognitive function impairments. The use of OA are less effective when compared with CPAP, but the results related to excessive sleepiness and cognitive performance showed improvements similar to CPAP. Treatments with OA showed greater patient compliance than the CPAP therapy. OSAS is a prevalent disorder among workers, leads to increased risk of occupational accidents, and has a significant impact on the economy. The CPAP therapy reduces the risk of occupational accidents. The OA can improve the work performance; but there is no scientific evidence associating its use with occupational accidents reduction. Future research should focus on determining the cost-effectiveness of OA as well as its influence and efficacy in preventing occupational accidents.

  18. A UK survey of driving behaviour, fatigue, risk taking and road traffic accidents

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Andrew P

    2016-01-01

    Objective The aim of the present research was to examine associations between poor driving behaviour (DB), driving when fatigued (DF), risk taking (RT) and road traffic accidents (RTAs). Design The study involved a cross-sectional online survey of clients of an insurance company. The survey measured DB (speeding, distraction, lapses of attention and aggression), RT and frequency of driving when fatigued (DF, driving late at night, prolonged driving, driving after a demanding working day and driving with a cold). Demographic, lifestyle, job characteristics and psychosocial factors were also measured and used as covariates. Setting Cardiff, UK. Sample 3000 clients of an insurance company agreed to participate in the study, and 2856 completed the survey (68% woman, 32% man; mean age: 34 years, range 18–74 years). Main outcome measures The outcomes were RTAs (requiring medical attention; not requiring medical attention), where the person was the driver. Results Factor analyses showed that DB, RT and fatigue loaded on independent factors. Logistic regressions showed that poor DB, frequently DF and taking risks predicted medical and non-medical RTAs. These effects were additive and those who reported poor DB, driving when fatigue and taking risks were twice as likely to have an RTA. These effects remained significant when demographic, lifestyle, medical, driving, work and psychosocial factors were covaried. Conclusions Poor DB, DF and RT predict RTAs. There are now short measuring instruments that can assess these, and driver education programmes must increase awareness of these risk factors. PMID:27540100

  19. The development of an inherent safety approach to the prevention of domino accidents.

    PubMed

    Cozzani, Valerio; Tugnoli, Alessandro; Salzano, Ernesto

    2009-11-01

    The severity of industrial accidents in which a domino effect takes place is well known in the chemical and process industry. The application of an inherent safety approach for the prevention of escalation events leading to domino accidents was explored in the present study. Reference primary scenarios were analyzed and escalation vectors were defined. Inherent safety distances were defined and proposed as a metric to express the intensity of the escalation vectors. Simple rules of thumb were presented for a preliminary screening of these distances. Swift reference indices for layout screening with respect to escalation hazard were also defined. Two case studies derived from existing layouts of oil refineries were selected to understand the potentialities coming from the application in the methodology. The results evidenced that the approach allows a first comparative assessment of the actual domino hazard in a layout, and the identification of critical primary units with respect to escalation events. The methodology developed also represents a useful screening tool to identify were to dedicate major efforts in the design of add-on measures, optimizing conventional passive and active measures for the prevention of severe domino accidents.

  20. Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jian John; Xing, Yingying; Wang, Chen; Cai, Xiaonan

    2016-01-01

    With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011-2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity. Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50-79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient. This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.

  1. Environmental justice: frequency and severity of US chemical industry accidents and the socioeconomic status of surrounding communities.

    PubMed

    Elliott, M R; Wang, Y; Lowe, R A; Kleindorfer, P R

    2004-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 requires that chemical facilities in the US with specified quantities of certain toxic or flammable chemicals file a five year history of accidents. This study considers the relation between the reported accidents and surrounding community characteristics. This study is a retrospective analysis of the association between the demographics of counties in which facilities are located and the risk of accidental chemical release and resulting injuries at those facilities. The "location risk" (the risk that a facility having large volumes of hazardous chemicals is located in a community) and "operations risk" (the risk of an accident itself) are investigated. 1994-2000 accident history data from 15 083 US industrial facilities using one or more of 140 flammable or toxic substances above a threshold level. Demographic makeup of 2333 counties surrounding these facilities was determined from the 1990 US census. Larger and more chemical intensive facilities tend to be located in counties with larger African-American populations and in counties with both higher median incomes and high levels of income inequality. Even after adjusting for location risk there is greater risk of accidents for facilities in heavily African-American counties (OR of accident = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5 to 2.4). Further research and policy interventions are required to reduce the probability of locating facilities in an inequitable fashion, as well as health surveillance, and regulatory monitoring and enforcement activities to ensure that hazardous facilities in minority communities prepare and prevent accidental chemical releases to the same standards as elsewhere.

  2. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  3. The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2014-07-01

    In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant

  4. [Characterization of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents in China between 1989 and 2003].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Min; Li, Tao; Wang, Huan-Qiang; Wang, Hong-Fei; Chen, Shu-Yang; Du, Xie-Yi; Zhang, Shuang; Qin, Jian

    2006-12-01

    To analyze severe acute occupational poisoning accidents reported in China between 1989 and 2003, and to study the characteristics of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents and provide scientific evidences for prevention and control strategies. The data from the national occupational poisoning case reporting system were analyzed with descriptive methods. (1) There were 506 acute severe occupational poisoning accidents for 15 years with 4 657 workers poisoned. The total poisoning rate was 54.8%, and the total mortality was 16.5%. The average poisoning age was (31.9 +/- 9.8) years old and the average death age was (33.7 +/- 10.3) years old. The poisoning accidents occurred more in men than in women. (2) There were more than 112 chemicals which caused these poisoning accidents. Most of the accidents caused by hydrogen sulfide, carbon monoxide, benzene and homologs, metal and metalloid and carbon dioxide, and the types of chemicals varied in different types of industries. (3) The accidents mainly occurred in chemical industry, manufacture, water disposal industry, mining and construction industry, and the risk was higher in some jobs than others, such as cleanout, machine maintenance and repair, production, mine and digging. The accidents occurred more frequently from April to August each year. (1) The control over the severe acute occupational poisoning is urgent. (2) The trend of the characteristics of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents is centralized in the high risk industries, poisons and jobs. (3) The characteristics of the accidents varied in different types of industries. (4) It is the key point to strengthen the supervision on poisoning.

  5. Biological accidents in last-year medical students from three hospitals in Lima Peru.

    PubMed

    Charca-Benavente, Lilyan Consuelo; Huanca-Ruelas, Grozny Howell; Moreno-Loaiza, Oscar

    2016-08-11

    To determine the frequency and characteristics of biological accidents in last-year medical students from three hospitals in Lima. Cross-sectional study performed at three Public Health Insurance hospitals in Lima, in December 2014. The study population comprised last-year medical interns. Biological accidents were recorded with a questionnaire of exposure to blood and body fluids based on the formats used by the Exposure Prevention Information Network system and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We inquired about occurrence and number of biological accidents as well as the characteristics of the last accident. Categorical data are presented as absolute and percentage frequencies and numeric data, as median and interquartile ranges. We collected 100 respondents; 85% of them had had a biological accident during the last year, with a median of 2 and interquartile range of 3. The most frequent type of exposure was percutaneous (71.8%) and the most common device was the hollow needle (54.1%). The most frequent place of occurrence and activities at the moment of exposure were at the delivery room (44.7%), while supervising a vaginal delivery (24.7%), and during suturing (24.7%). Three accidents involved high-risk patients, but only one student received antiviral prophylaxis; 49.4% attributed the cause of the accident to fatigue, and 75.3% of accidents are not reported. Gloves are the most used protective barrier (95%). The frequency of biological accidents among last-year medical students is high. Underreporting and inappropriate use of protective barriers increase the risk of medical students for biological accidents.

  6. Key factors contributing to accident severity rate in construction industry in Iran: a regression modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Soltanzadeh, Ahmad; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Ghiasvand, Reza

    2016-03-01

    Construction industry involves the highest risk of occupational accidents and bodily injuries, which range from mild to very severe. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify the factors associated with accident severity rate (ASR) in the largest Iranian construction companies based on data about 500 occupational accidents recorded from 2009 to 2013. We also gathered data on safety and health risk management and training systems. Data were analysed using Pearson's chi-squared coefficient and multiple regression analysis. Median ASR (and the interquartile range) was 107.50 (57.24- 381.25). Fourteen of the 24 studied factors stood out as most affecting construction accident severity (p<0.05). These findings can be applied in the design and implementation of a comprehensive safety and health risk management system to reduce ASR.

  7. A Discrepancy-Based Methodology for Nuclear Training Program Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cantor, Jeffrey A.

    1991-01-01

    A three-phase comprehensive process for commercial nuclear power training program evaluation is presented. The discrepancy-based methodology was developed after the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor accident. It facilitates analysis of program components to identify discrepancies among program specifications, actual outcomes, and industry…

  8. Relationship between work-related accidents and hot weather conditions in Tuscany (central Italy).

    PubMed

    Morabito, Marco; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Crisci, Alfonso; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Orlandini, Simone

    2006-07-01

    Nowadays, no studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological conditions and work-related mortality and morbidity in Italy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between hot weather conditions and hospital admissions due to work-related accidents in Tuscany (central Italy) over the period 1998-2003. Apparent temperature (AT) values were calculated to evaluate human weather discomfort due to hot conditions and then tested for work accident differences using non-parametric procedures. Present findings showed that hot weather conditions might represent a risk factor for work-related accidents in Italy during summer. In particular early warming days during June, characterized by heat discomfort, are less tolerated by workers than warming days of the following summer months. The peak of work-related accidents occurred on days characterized by high, but not extreme, thermal conditions. Workers maybe change their behaviour when heat stress increases, reducing risks by adopting preventive measures. Results suggested that days with an average daytime AT value ranged between 24.8 degrees C and 27.5 degrees C were at the highest risk of work-related accidents. In conclusion, present findings might represent the first step for the development of a watch/warning system for workers that might be used by employers for planning work activities.

  9. Open water scuba diving accidents at Leicester: five years' experience.

    PubMed Central

    Hart, A J; White, S A; Conboy, P J; Bodiwala, G; Quinton, D

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence, type, outcome, and possible risk factors of diving accidents in each year of a five year period presenting from one dive centre to a large teaching hospital accident and emergency (A&E) department. METHODS: All patients included in this study presented to the A&E department at a local teaching hospital in close proximity to the largest inland diving centre in the UK. Our main outcome measures were: presenting symptoms, administration of recompression treatment, mortality, and postmortem examination report where applicable. RESULTS: Overall, 25 patients experienced a serious open water diving accident at the centre between 1992 and 1996 inclusive. The percentage of survivors (n = 18) with symptoms of decompression sickness receiving recompression treatment was 52%. All surviving patients received medical treatment for at least 24 hours before discharge. The median depth of diving accidents was 24 metres (m) (range 7-36 m). During the study period, 1992-96, the number of accidents increased from one to 10 and the incidence of diving accidents increased from four per 100,000 to 15.4 per 100,000. Over the same time period the number of deaths increased threefold. CONCLUSIONS: The aetiology of the increase in the incidence of accidents is multifactorial. Important risk factors were thought to be: rapid ascent (in 48% of patients), cold water, poor visibility, the number of dives per diver, and the experience of the diver. It is concluded that there needs to be an increased awareness of the management of diving injuries in an A&E department in close proximity to an inland diving centre. PMID:10353047

  10. [Retrospective analysis and prevention strategies for accidents associated with cervical manipulation in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Hui-Hao; Zhan, Hong-Sheng; Zhang, Ming-Cai; Chen, Bo; Guo, Kai

    2012-09-01

    To review previously reported injuries cases which were associated with cervical manipulation in China, and to describe the risks and benefits of the therapy. Relevant case reports, review articles, surveys, and investigations regarding treatment of cervical spondylosis with cervical manipulation involving accidents and associated complication were retrived with a search of the literature from SinoMed, CNKI, CQVIP, and Wanfang digital databases between 1979 to March 2011. The data were extracted and statistically analyzed. Total of 150 cases of injury reported in 40 articles corresponded the inclusion criteria. Accidents occurred in 156 cases,of them,syncope was in 45 cases (28.85%), mild spinal cord injury or compression was in 34 cases (21.79%), nerve root injury was in 24 cases (15.38%), ineffective or symptom increased was in 11 cases (7.05%); cervical spine fracture was in 11 cases (7.05%), dislocation or semiluxation was in 6 cases (3.85%), soft tissue injury was in 3 cases (1.92%), serious accident was 22 cases (14.70%, including paralysis, death and cerebrovascular accident). In cases of serious accident, 12 cases (54.55%) had the other primary diseases. Types of related manipulation including rotation reduction (42.00%, 63 cases), rubbing points or muscle resulting strong stimulation (28.00%, 42 cases). 100 cases (66.67%) obtained cured or basically recovered results, 21 cases (14.00%) improved, 4 cases (2.67%) deterioration and 5 cases (3.33%) died. It is imperative for practitioners to complete the patients' management and assessment before manipulation. That the practitioners conduct a detailed physical examination and make a correct diagnosis would be a pivot method of avoiding accidents. Excluding contraindications and potential risks, standardizing evaluation criteria and practitioners' qualification, increasing safety awareness and risk assessment and strengthening the monitoring of the accidents could decrease the incidence of accidents.

  11. Risk assessment of fall-related occupational accidents in the workplace

    PubMed Central

    Tsukada, Tsukimi; Sakakibara, Hisataka

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study aimed to examine effective assessment methods of falls in the workplace. Methods: There were 436 employees (305 males and 131 females) of electrical appliance manufacturers included in this study. In 2014, a baseline survey was conducted using the fall scores questionnaire and the self-check risk assessment of falls and other accidents in the workplace (physical function measurement and questionnaire). In 2015, the occurrence of falls in the past year was investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors relevant to falls. Results: In total, 62 subjects (14.2%) fell during the year, including those who fell during off-hours. The occurrence of falls during that one year was only associated with having experienced falls during the past year in the baseline survey (odds ratio [OR] 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-9.7). Falls during that year were also related to the inability to walk 1 km continuously (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.1-0.6), tripping sometimes (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6-9.9), step height differences at home (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3-6.8), and working in the production section (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Measurements of physical functions, such as muscle strength, balance, and agility, were not different between subjects who fell and those who did not. Conclusions: Our results showed that the questionnaire assessing falls during the past year could be useful to assess the risk of falls in the workplace. Annual checks for falls may contribute to fall prevention programs in the workplace. PMID:27725487

  12. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

    EPA Science Inventory

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

  13. Mortality in traffic accidents with older adults in Colombia

    PubMed Central

    Cardona, Angela Maria Segura; Arango, Doris Cardona; Fernández, Dedsy Yajaira Berbesí; Martínez, Alejandra Agudelo

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the traffic accident mortality in the Colombian older adults during the 1998-2012 period and show the loss of productive years and mortality from this cause. METHODS Quantitative study of the trend analysis of deaths in Colombia in traffic accidents, from 1998 to 2012, according to death records and population projected by the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics. Frequency distribution profile of the deceased, death rates per hundred thousand inhabitants, potential years of life lost and calculation of excess mortality by age in the over 60 were made. RESULTS In the study period 100,758 deaths occurred in traffic accidents, 6,717 annual average, of which 18.5% occurred in people aged 60 years and over. The predominated deaths were men; the risk of dying was 32.15 per hundred thousand people in this age range, with double risk of dying those under 60 years. CONCLUSIONS The young population has a higher proportion of deaths, but those over 60 years are at increased risk of death, leading to the need to turn our gaze to the improvement of road infrastructure and standards, to educate the population in self-care and compliance with safety measures and prepare society for an ever more adult population, more numerous and more prone to take risks. PMID:28355347

  14. [When and where motorcyclists have accidents and die in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil].

    PubMed

    Diniz, Eugênio Paceli Hatem; Pinheiro, Letícia Cavalari; Proietti, Fernando Augusto

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze traffic accidents involving motorcycles in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, from 2007 to 2011 and to identify clusters of high-risk and hazardous intersections in and around the city. Data were provided by the Military Police Brigade and the Emergency Medical Service (SAMU). Accident severity rates were used to identify critical intersections. Two techniques were used: kernel analysis and scan statistics (continuous Poisson model). High-risk clusters were located in the downtown area and on major thoroughfares. Surprisingly, the highest risk of accidents and death occurred not at intersections, but between them. Hazardous intersections are part of routes used to access regions around Greater Metropolitan Belo Horizonte. Two distinct trends in mortality rates and accidents were identified. Most motorcycle deaths occurred after 7:00 PM. The study concludes that there is an urgent need to improve motorcycle and public transportation routes.

  15. NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank; Everett, Chris; Hall, Anthony; Insley, Scott

    2011-01-01

    Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate

  16. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

  17. [Mutual aid societies for industrial accidents and occupational diseases in the social security service within the framework of the Prevention of Occupational Risk Act].

    PubMed

    Albalá-Ortiz, M

    The passing of the Prevention of Industrial Risks Act, in force from 9 February 1996 has altered previous ideas on the subject, which is currently considered to be of utmost importance for national and community legislation. In this article we describe the preventive functions of the Mutual Aid Societies for Industrial Accidents and professional diseases of the National Health Service. We have analysed the current legislation so as to clarify the activities of the Mutual Aid Societies in the field of the prevention of industrial accidents, and have defined the actions which may be taken in this field according to the present laws. Two different types of preventive activities are considered: (1) Those which depend on contributions, included in the professional risks cover, and which are obliged to prepare an annual plan of the measures taken to prevent industrial accidents and professional illness, following the guidelines established by the Ministry of Labor and Social Services and according to certain priorities. (2) The functions corresponding to the services for third-party prevention exclusively for their associated companies when the Mutual Aid Society is approved as a service for third party cover. This requires a voluntary or professional contract and the financial cost is borne by the company which requests it. The objective of the current legislation is, amongst other things, to introduce the new preventive approach established by the Prevention of Industrial Risks Act in the workplace and through the Mutual Aid Societies as well as to foment a new culture of prevention.

  18. Homocysteine and cerebrovascular accidents.

    PubMed

    Datta, Saikat; Pal, Salil K; Mazumdar, Hirak; Bhandari, Biswanath; Bhattacherjee, Sharmistha; Pandit, Sudipta

    2009-06-01

    Hyperhomocysteinaemia is rapidly emerging as an important risk factor for coronary artery disease, possibly because of its propensity to accelerate atherosclerosis. Whether it is also a risk factor for cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) is a matter of debate till now, as there are conflicting results of the various prospective studies. The present study was performed to correlate the levels of plasma homocysteine levels with that of ischaemic and haemorrhagic CVA. Forty-two cases of CVA were randomly selected over a period of one year, and their risk factors were assessed. It was observed that serum homocysteine levels were significantly raised in those with intracerebral infarcts when compared to those with intracerebral haemorrhage, although homocysteine levels didn't prove to be prognostically significant.

  19. [Occupational physician's role in the prevention of the accidents in construction industry].

    PubMed

    Mosconi, G; Riva, M M; Apostoli, P

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this work is to discuss about the role of the occupational physician in the prevention of the accidents in construction industry. Using the experience of 12 years of surveillance of workers in Bergamo province, the authors analyse the "human factors" which may influence the risk to have an accident, and the role of the physicians not only for the early diagnosis of work-related diseases, but also for the formulation of correct fitness to work, which consider accidents' prevention. Health conditions, psychological elements, fatigue and life style are some of the most important "human factors" which can amplify the accident phenomenon in construction industry. Our experience demonstrates that the occupational physicians can operate in preventive way on these factors, formulating correct fitness to work, giving their collaboration in the risk evaluation and management, suggesting runs of rehabilitation and recovery for the workers who need it, promoting information meetings related to the correct life habits.

  20. A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Escales, Paula; Canelles, Arnau; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Folch, Albert; Kurtzman, Daniel; Rossetto, Rudy; Fernández-Escalante, Enrique; Lobo-Ferreira, João-Paulo; Sapiano, Manuel; San-Sebastián, Jon; Schüth, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of fault trees and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2-6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).

  1. Environmental justice: frequency and severity of US chemical industry accidents and the socioeconomic status of surrounding communities

    PubMed Central

    Elliott, M; Wang, Y; Lowe, R; Kleindorfer, P

    2004-01-01

    Study objectives: The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 requires that chemical facilities in the US with specified quantities of certain toxic or flammable chemicals file a five year history of accidents. This study considers the relation between the reported accidents and surrounding community characteristics. Design: This study is a retrospective analysis of the association between the demographics of counties in which facilities are located and the risk of accidental chemical release and resulting injuries at those facilities. The "location risk" (the risk that a facility having large volumes of hazardous chemicals is located in a community) and "operations risk" (the risk of an accident itself) are investigated. Setting:1994–2000 accident history data from 15 083 US industrial facilities using one or more of 140 flammable or toxic substances above a threshold level. Demographic makeup of 2333 counties surrounding these facilities was determined from the 1990 US census. Main results: Larger and more chemical intensive facilities tend to be located in counties with larger African-American populations and in counties with both higher median incomes and high levels of income inequality. Even after adjusting for location risk there is greater risk of accidents for facilities in heavily African-American counties (OR of accident = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5 to 2.4). Conclusions: Further research and policy interventions are required to reduce the probability of locating facilities in an inequitable fashion, as well as health surveillance, and regulatory monitoring and enforcement activities to ensure that hazardous facilities in minority communities prepare and prevent accidental chemical releases to the same standards as elsewhere. PMID:14684723

  2. [Health-related consequences of obstructive sleep apnea: daytime sleepiness, accident risk and legal aspects].

    PubMed

    Orth, M; Kotterba, S

    2012-04-01

    Daytime sleepiness for any reason leads to impairment of daytime performance and an increased accident rate. The consequences are an increase of illness- and accident-related costs for the health system. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is one of the major reasons for increased daytime sleepiness, especially in professional drivers. The accident frequency in OSA can be significantly reduced by adequate continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Up till now there are no uniform legal regulations about the handling of OSAS patients or patients with daytime sleepiness due to other diseases as far as driving ability is concerned.

  3. Assessment of the Risk of Medium-Term Internal Contamination in Minamisoma City, Fukushima, Japan, after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Accident

    PubMed Central

    Gilmour, Stuart; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Kami, Masahiro; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Kanazawa, Yukio; Shibuya, Kenji

    2014-01-01

    Background: The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster, the first level-7 major nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, raised concerns about the future health consequences of exposure to and intake of radionuclides. Factors determining the risk and level of internal radiation contamination after a nuclear accident, which are a key to understanding and improving current nuclear disaster management, are not well studied. Objective: We investigated both the prevalence and level of internal contamination in residents of Minamisoma, and identified factors determining the risk and levels of contamination. Methods: We implemented a program assessing internal radiation contamination using a whole body counter (WBC) measurement and a questionnaire survey in Minamisoma, between October 2011 and March 2012. Results: Approximately 20% of the city’s population (8,829 individuals) participated in the WBC measurement for internal contamination, of which 94% responded to the questionnaire. The proportion of participants with detectable internal contamination was 40% in adults and 9% in children. The level of internal contamination ranged from 2.3 to 196.5 Bq/kg (median, 11.3 Bq/kg). Tobit regression analysis identified two main risk factors: more time spent outdoors, and intake of potentially contaminated foods and water. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, with sensible and reasonable precautions, people may be able to live continuously in radiation-affected areas with limited contamination risk. To enable this, nuclear disaster response should strictly enforce food and water controls and disseminate evidence-based and up-to-date information about avoidable contamination risks. Citation: Sugimoto A, Gilmour S, Tsubokura M, Nomura S, Kami M, Oikawa T, Kanazawa Y, Shibuya K. 2014. Assessment of the risk of medium-term internal contamination in Minamisoma City, Fukushima, Japan, after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear accident. Environ Health Perspect 122:587–593;

  4. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kammerer, Annie

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should bemore » considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration

  5. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kammerer, Annie

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should bemore » considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration

  6. Drug Violations and Aviation Accidents: Findings from the U.S. Mandatory Drug Testing Programs

    PubMed Central

    Li, Guohua; Baker, Susan P.; Zhao, Qi; Brady, Joanne E.; Lang, Barbara H.; Rebok, George W.; DiMaggio, Charles

    2012-01-01

    Aims To assess the role of drug violations in aviation accidents. Design Case-control analysis. Setting Commercial aviation in the United States. Participants Aviation employees who were tested for drugs during 1995 through 2005 under the post-accident testing program (cases, n=4,977) or under the random testing program (controls, n=1,129,922). Measurements Point prevalence of drug violations, odds ratio of accident involvement, and attributable risk in the population. A drug violation was defined as a confirmed positive test for marijuana (≥ 50 ng/ml), cocaine (≥ 300 ng/ml), amphetamines (≥1000 ng/ml), opiates (≥ 2000 ng/ml), or phencyclidine (≥ 25 ng/ml). Findings The prevalence of drug violations was 0.64% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.62–0.65%] in random drug tests and 1.82% (95% CI, 1.47–2.24%) in post-accident tests. The odds of accident involvement for employees who tested positive for drugs was almost three times the odds for those who tested negative (odds ratio 2.90, 95% CI, 2.35–3.57), with an estimated attributable risk of 1.2%. Marijuana accounted for 67.3% of the illicit drugs detected. The proportion of illicit drugs represented by amphetamines increased progressively during the study period, from 3.4% in 1995 to 10.3% in 2005 (p<0.0001). Conclusions Use of illicit drugs by aviation employees is associated with a significantly increased risk of accident involvement. Due to the very low prevalence, drug violations contribute to only a small fraction of aviation accidents. PMID:21306594

  7. Commuting by bike in Belgium, the costs of minor accidents.

    PubMed

    Aertsens, Joris; de Geus, Bas; Vandenbulcke, Grégory; Degraeuwe, Bart; Broekx, Steven; De Nocker, Leo; Liekens, Inge; Mayeres, Inge; Meeusen, Romain; Thomas, Isabelle; Torfs, Rudi; Willems, Hanny; Int Panis, Luc

    2010-11-01

    Minor bicycle accidents are defined as "bicycle accidents not involving death or heavily injured persons, implying that possible hospital visits last less than 24 hours". Statistics about these accidents and related injuries are very poor, because they are mostly not reported to police, hospitals or insurance companies. Yet, they form a major share of all bicycle accidents. Official registrations underestimate the number of minor accidents and do not provide cost data, nor the distance cycled. Therefore related policies are hampered by a lack of accurate data. This paper provides more insight into the importance of minor bicycle accidents and reports the frequency, risk and resulting costs of minor bicycle accidents. Direct costs, including the damage to bike and clothes as well as medical costs and indirect costs such as productivity loss and leisure time lost are calculated. We also estimate intangible costs of pain and psychological suffering and costs for other parties involved in the accident. Data were collected during the SHAPES project using several electronic surveys. The weekly prospective registration that lasted a year, covered 1187 persons that cycled 1,474,978 km. 219 minor bicycle accidents were reported. Resulting in a frequency of 148 minor bicycle accidents per million kilometres. We analyzed the economic costs related to 118 minor bicycle accidents in detail. The average total cost of these accidents is estimated at 841 euro (95% CI: 579-1205) per accident or 0.125 euro per kilometre cycled. Overall, productivity loss is the most important component accounting for 48% of the total cost. Intangible costs, which in past research were mostly neglected, are an important burden related to minor bicycle accidents (27% of the total cost). Even among minor accidents there are important differences in the total cost depending on the severity of the injury. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark.

    PubMed

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-02-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Nevertheless, research on the behaviour and accident involvement of young moped riders remains sparse. Based on analysis of 128 accident protocols, the purpose of this study was to increase knowledge about moped accidents. The study was performed in Denmark involving riders aged 16 or 17. A distinction was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved, attention error (52%) was the most frequently assigned accident factor. The majority (78%) of the accidents involved road rule breaching on the part of the moped rider. The results indicate that preventive measures should aim to eliminate violations and increase anticipatory skills among moped riders and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

    PubMed

    Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

    2017-07-01

    Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple

  10. Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

    PubMed

    Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

    2010-11-15

    The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A UK survey of driving behaviour, fatigue, risk taking and road traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Smith, Andrew P

    2016-08-18

    The aim of the present research was to examine associations between poor driving behaviour (DB), driving when fatigued (DF), risk taking (RT) and road traffic accidents (RTAs). The study involved a cross-sectional online survey of clients of an insurance company. The survey measured DB (speeding, distraction, lapses of attention and aggression), RT and frequency of driving when fatigued (DF, driving late at night, prolonged driving, driving after a demanding working day and driving with a cold). Demographic, lifestyle, job characteristics and psychosocial factors were also measured and used as covariates. Cardiff, UK. 3000 clients of an insurance company agreed to participate in the study, and 2856 completed the survey (68% woman, 32% man; mean age: 34 years, range 18-74 years). The outcomes were RTAs (requiring medical attention; not requiring medical attention), where the person was the driver. Factor analyses showed that DB, RT and fatigue loaded on independent factors. Logistic regressions showed that poor DB, frequently DF and taking risks predicted medical and non-medical RTAs. These effects were additive and those who reported poor DB, driving when fatigue and taking risks were twice as likely to have an RTA. These effects remained significant when demographic, lifestyle, medical, driving, work and psychosocial factors were covaried. Poor DB, DF and RT predict RTAs. There are now short measuring instruments that can assess these, and driver education programmes must increase awareness of these risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  12. Life Change Events as a Predictor of Accident Incidence in a College Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Furney, Steven R.

    1983-01-01

    To test the relationship between stressful life-change events and accident incidence, researchers administered the College Schedule of Recent Experience to male students at a large midwestern university. The study's implications for identifying high-risk persons and for accident prevention are discussed. (PP)

  13. [Factors associated with road accidents in the city of Lubumbashi].

    PubMed

    Kandolo, Simon Ilunga; Matungulu, Charles Matungulu; Mukanya, Pascal Kimba; Umba, Irène Kabange; Kabamba, Julie Ndayi; Numbi, Oscar Luboya; Ilunga, Benjamin Kabyla; Kaj, Françoise Malonga; Lubaba, Célestin Banza; Ngongo, Ghislain Mashini

    2014-01-01

    We conducted a retrospective non-comparative cross-sectional study in Lubumbashi on factors associated with road accidents. To contribute to the reduction of morbidity and mortality related to road accidents based on a better understanding of this phenomenon in the city of Lubumbashi, to assess the frequency and the growth of road accidents in the city of Lubumbashi and to determine the factors predisposing to these accidents. This non-controlled retrospective cross-sectional descriptive study covered the period from 1st January to 31st December 2008, and included all cases of vehicles registered by the police department after an accident. A total of 1,915 road traffic were reported, mostly caused by public transport vehicles (59%) driven by young adult males (89% of cases) with a mean age of 28 years. The main cause was speeding combined with other factors (34% of cases). The majority of these accidents occurred in the city of Lubumbashi (52.9% of cases) between 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. (74% of cases). Transit vehicles were exposed to a greater risk of road accidents (59%). There is an urgent need for accurate information on the rules of the road for drivers and road users to reduce the mortality and morbidity due to road accidents.

  14. [Risk factors for accidental injuries in the construction industry].

    PubMed

    Gravseth, Hans Magne; Lund, Johan; Wergeland, Ebba

    2006-02-09

    The construction industry is prone to accidents. In Norway there is little research-based knowledge on accident pattern and risk factors. The main objective of the study was to examine whether in-depth studies of accidents in this industry, leading to injuries registered by the health services, could identify preventable risk factors and preventive measures. 50 accidents in the construction industry were thoroughly investigated. All had led to serious personal injury. Patients were interviewed after treatment in emergency wards and hospitals in Oslo, and inspections of the accident sites were performed. An interdisciplinary expert group discussed the accidents in order to identify risk factors and suggest preventive measures. The accident reports in the study were compared to reports from the Labour Inspectorate on the same accidents. The investigation identified several risk factors, and a number of detailed preventive measures were proposed. We submitted these proposals to the authorities and organisations involved. Accidents because of time pressure and electricity were two main groups. More than one third of the respondents said that time pressure had contributed to the accident. Accident risk caused by time pressure can be reduced by avoiding piecework contracts, unrealistic time limits, and the use of day penalties for breach of contract. Possible preventive measures for electric injuries imply modification of the reporting system and of the work organisation so that workers can comply with the regulations more easily. The study reports generally contained more information of relevance for prevention than the routine reports from the Labour Inspectorate did. For accidents reported by the Inspectorate to the police, their reports were more informative than the study reports. By the method presented, we obtained detailed information about accidents and preventable risk factors, so that preventive measures could be proposed. The method can also be used for other

  15. Toxicology of hydrogen fluoride in relation to major accident hazards.

    PubMed

    Meldrum, M

    1999-10-01

    A major industrial accident involving the release of hydrogen fluoride has the potential to cause serious injury and possibly death in the surrounding human population. Given the potential for such serious and large-scale effects, there is a need for scientifically based risk assessments for determining appropriate on-site risk control measures, as well as for informing off-site emergency plans and land-use development decisions. Within Great Britain, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has the statutory responsibility for providing land-use planning advice in the vicinity of major accident hazard sites. The advice is based on quantified assessment of the individual risk of exposure to a specified amount of the toxic substance. Among other things this requires a consistent, reliable, and transparent understanding of the major hazard toxicology of the substance concerned. An assessment of the toxicology of hydrogen fluoride in relation to major accident hazards, based on conventional inhalation toxicity studies, was published by HSE in 1993. Recently, studies have been reported in which rats inhaled hydrogen fluoride via a mouthpiece attached to an endotracheal cannula. HSE has explored the use of this "mouth-breathing" rat model as a possible basis for human health risk assessment for hydrogen fluoride in the context of major accident hazards. A number of uncertainties in the use of this animal model have been identified that warrant caution in the use of this model for regulatory purposes. Overall, the results from the "mouth-breathing" rat model did not lead to a change in the HSE assessment of hydrogen fluoride, which remains based on experimental data obtained following "mainstream" toxicological practices. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  16. Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems.

    PubMed

    Noland, R B

    1995-08-01

    A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting).

  17. The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

    2012-04-01

    The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

  18. Support mechanisms for oil spill accident response in costal lagoon areas (Ria de Aveiro, Portugal)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, Eduardo R.; Silveira, Bruno; Alves, Fátima L.

    2014-10-01

    Oil spill accidents can be caused by several risk factors associated to maritime transport and port activities, which cannot always be predicted or controlled. Therefore, it is essential to support prevention and contingency plans, whose effectiveness is crucial to produce adequate responses and minimize resulting impacts. Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) is a wide coastal lagoon, within a densely populated area, representing a concentration of important biodiversity resources and several economic activities. This paper presents alternative methodologies to support the optimization of civil protection assets in the occurrence of oil spill events and the results of their application on a section area of the Aveiro Lagoon, using an established geographic information system database containing crucial data. The presented methodologies are based on the Environmental Sensitivity Index developed by the North American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) and the Global Vulnerability Index which were applied on the Bay of Biscay (Spain). However, during the development of this work, neither of these methodologies was considered to entirely assess the study area in its full extent, which led to the need to adapt and define a bespoke approach. The introduced changes include extra categories in shoreline classification, an adapted physical vulnerability index for coastal lagoons, differentiated aspects for highly protected status areas, qualitative assessment of socioeconomic features and an access and operability index created to support emergency operation response. The resulting maps are the subject of analysis, in which considerations regarding control and cleanup methods are introduced, together with guidelines for further integration in local risk management strategies.

  19. Best practices to reduce the accident rate hotel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Revilla, M. R.; Kahale Carrillo, D. T.

    2014-10-01

    Examining the available databases and existing tourism organizations can conclude that appear studies on accidents and their relationship with other variables. But in our case we want to assess this relationship in the performance of the hotel in relation to lower the accident rate. The Industrial Safety studies analyzing this accident causes (why they happen), their sources (committed activities), their agents (participants work means), its type (how the events occur or develop), all in order to develop prevention. In our case, as accidents happen because people commit wrongful acts or because the equipment, tools, machinery or workplaces are not in proper conditions, the preventive point of view we analyze through the incidence of workplace accidents hotel subsector. The crash occurs because there is a risk, so that adequate control of it would avoid despite individual factors. Absenteeism or absence from work was taken into account first by Dubois in 1977, as he realized the time lost in the nineteenth century due to the long working hours, which included the holidays. Motivation and job satisfaction were the elements that have been most important in the phenomenon of social psychology.

  20. Risk assessment methodology applied to counter IED research & development portfolio prioritization

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shevitz, Daniel W; O' Brien, David A; Zerkle, David K

    2009-01-01

    In an effort to protect the United States from the ever increasing threat of domestic terrorism, the Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T), has significantly increased research activities to counter the terrorist use of explosives. More over, DHS S&T has established a robust Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) Program to Deter, Predict, Detect, Defeat, and Mitigate this imminent threat to the Homeland. The DHS S&T portfolio is complicated and changing. In order to provide the ''best answer'' for the available resources, DHS S&T would like some ''risk based'' process for making funding decisions. There is a definitemore » need for a methodology to compare very different types of technologies on a common basis. A methodology was developed that allows users to evaluate a new ''quad chart'' and rank it, compared to all other quad charts across S&T divisions. It couples a logic model with an evidential reasoning model using an Excel spreadsheet containing weights of the subjective merits of different technologies. The methodology produces an Excel spreadsheet containing the aggregate rankings of the different technologies. It uses Extensible Logic Modeling (ELM) for logic models combined with LANL software called INFTree for evidential reasoning.« less

  1. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    , helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

  2. Cerebrovascular accidents in sickle cell disease. Risk factors and blood transfusion influence. French Study Group on Sickle Cell Disease.

    PubMed

    de Montalembert, M; Beauvais, P; Bachir, D; Galacteros, F; Girot, R

    1993-03-01

    This study presents a series of 34 sickle cell patients with one or more cerebrovascular accidents (CVA). Risk factors were studied in a subgroup of 19 patients whose clinical and biological characteristics were compared to those of a group of 444 sickle cell patients without CVA. The only risk factor discovered was a past history of purulent meningitis, which was significantly more frequent in sickle cell patients than in those without CVA (P < 0.0001). No biological or radiological factor affecting the risk of recurrence was found. The risk of recurrence, neurological defects or death after subsequent CVA justify long-term transfusion treatment in patients presenting with a second CVA. However our study shows that 10 patients who were not transfused after their first CVA had no recurrences, (median follow up = 7.9 years; 2-18 years), providing a basis for discussion on the indications of long-term transfusion therapy for sickle cell patients presenting with their first CVA.

  3. Accident investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laynor, William G. Bud

    1987-01-01

    The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has attributed wind shear as a cause or contributing factor in 15 accidents involving transport-categroy airplanes since 1970. Nine of these were nonfatal; but the other six accounted for 440 lives. Five of the fatal accidents and seven of the nonfatal accidents involved encounters with convective downbursts or microbursts. Of other accidents, two which were nonfatal were encounters with a frontal system shear, and one which was fatal was the result of a terrain induced wind shear. These accidents are discussed with reference to helping the aircraft to avoid the wind shear or if impossible to help the pilot to get through the wind shear.

  4. Under-reporting of accidents involving biological material by nursing professionals at a Brazilian emergency hospital.

    PubMed

    Facchin, Luiza Tayar; Gir, Elucir; Pazin-Filho, Antonio; Hayashida, Miyeko; da Silva Canini, Silvia Rita Marin

    2013-01-01

    Pathogens can be transmitted to health professionals after contact with biological material. The exact number of infections deriving from these events is still unknown, due to the lack of systematic surveillance data and under-reporting. A cross-sectional study was carried out, involving 451 nursing professionals from a Brazilian tertiary emergency hospital between April and July 2009. Through an active search, cases of under-reporting of occupational accidents with biological material by the nursing team were identified by means of individual interviews. The Institutional Review Board approved the research project. Over half of the professionals (237) had been victims of one or more accidents (425 in total) involving biological material, and 23.76% of the accidents had not been officially reported using an occupational accident report. Among the underreported accidents, 53.47% were percutaneous and 67.33% were bloodborne. The main reason for nonreporting was that the accident had been considered low risk. The under-reporting rate (23.76%) was low in comparison with other studies, but most cases of exposure were high risk.

  5. A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

    2015-04-01

    Indroduction Urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and it has significant economic and social consequences. While the cost of the direct flood damages of urban flooding is well understood, the indirect damages, like the water borne diseases is in general still poorly understood. Climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of urban flooding in many countries which is likely to increase water borne diseases. Diarrheal diseases are most prevalent in developing countries, where poor sanitation, poor drinking water and poor surface water quality causes a high disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. The level of water borne diarrhea in countries with well-developed water and waste water infrastructure has been reduced to an acceptable level, and the population in general do not consider waste water as being a health risk. Hence, exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water still has the potential to cause transmission of diarrheal diseases. When managing urban flooding and planning urban climate change adaptations, health risks are rarely taken into consideration. This paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and the health risks caused by direct human contact with flood water and provides an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population through the use of intelligent urban flood risk management. Methodology We have linked hydrodynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the risk of infection caused by exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water. The deterministic model MIKE Flood, which integrates the sewer network model in MIKE Urban and the 2D surface model MIKE21, was used to calculate the concentration of pathogens in the

  6. Drivers involved in road traffic accidents in Piedmont Region: psychoactive substances consumption.

    PubMed

    Siliquini, R; Chiadò Piat, S; Gianino, M M; Renga, G

    2007-12-01

    The role played by psychoactive substances in road safety has become object of increasing interest: these substances can reduce driving performance and increase accidents risk. Aims of the study are to establish the dimension of the problem and to describe the characteristics of people involved in accidents under psychoactive substance effects. Target population consists of people from 18 to 60-years-old involved in accidents afferent in Emergency Rooms. Subjects were interviewed by surveyors and a urines was collected for psychoactive substances screening. In 18.5% of people we found substance consumption. Cocaine was the most frequently detected substance (9.5%), then benzodiazepines (7.5%), methadone, morphine and marijuana (THC) (3.5%). In 5.5% of subjects more than one substance was found. Considering only illegal substances detected, female have a higher risk to be consumers (OR = 1.36) and the young age (18-35 years) seems to be at higher prevalence and risk for substance use (OR = 1.86). Considering all psychoactive substances detected, clearly the problem about substances consumption and driving is not restricted to youngest but involves all age groups. In order to decrease the number of accidents due to substance use, new prevention programmes able to involve also middle age groups should be planned.

  7. Alcohol violations and aviation accidents: findings from the U.S. mandatory alcohol testing program.

    PubMed

    Li, Guohua; Baker, Susan P; Qiang, Yandong; Rebok, George W; McCarthy, Melissa L

    2007-05-01

    Mandatory alcohol testing has been implemented in the U.S. aviation industry since 1995. This study documents the prevalence of alcohol violations and the association between alcohol violations and aviation accidents among aviation employees with safety-sensitive functions. Data from the random alcohol testing and post-accident alcohol testing programs reported by major airlines to the Federal Aviation Administration for the years 1995 through 2002 were analyzed. A violation was defined as an alcohol level of > or = 0.04% or a refusal to submit to testing. Relative and attributable risks of accident involvement associated with alcohol violations were estimated using the case-control method. During the study period, random alcohol testing yielded a total of 440 violations, with an overall prevalence rate of 0.09% and a prevalence rate of 0.03% for flight crews. Alcohol violations were associated with an increased yet not statistically significant risk of accident involvement (odds ratio 2.56, 95% confidence interval 0.81-7.08) and were attributed to 0.13% of aviation accidents. Alcohol violations among U.S. major airline employees with safety-sensitive functions are rare and play a negligible role in aviation accidents.

  8. Alcohol Violations and Aviation Accidents: Findings from the U.S. Mandatory Alcohol Testing Program

    PubMed Central

    Li, Guohua; Baker, Susan P.; Qiang, Yandong; Rebok, George W.; McCarthy, Melissa L.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction: Mandatory alcohol testing has been implemented in the U.S. aviation industry since 1995. This study documents the prevalence of alcohol violations and the association between alcohol violations and aviation accidents among aviation employees with safety-sensitive functions. Methods: Data from the random alcohol testing and post-accident alcohol testing programs reported by major airlines to the Federal Aviation Administration for the years 1995 through 2002 were analyzed. A violation was defined as an alcohol level of ≥ 0.04% or a refusal to submit to testing. Relative and attributable risks of accident involvement associated with alcohol violations were estimated using the case-control method. Results: During the study period, random alcohol testing yielded a total of 440 violations, with an overall prevalence rate of 0.09% and a prevalence rate of 0.03% for flight crews. Alcohol violations were associated with an increased yet not statistically significant risk of accident involvement (odds ratio 2.56, 95% confidence interval 0.81–7.08) and were attributed to 0.13% of aviation accidents. Discussion: Alcohol violations among U.S. major airline employees with safety-sensitive functions are rare and play a negligible role in aviation accidents. PMID:17539446

  9. San Joaquin, California, High-Speed Rail Grade Crossing Data Acquisition Characteristics, Methodology, and Risk Assessment

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2006-11-01

    This report discusses data acquisition and analysis for grade crossing risk analysis at the proposed San Joaquin High-Speed Rail Corridor in San Joaquin, California, and documents the data acquisition and analysis methodologies used to collect and an...

  10. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-05-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010-2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans from inhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.

  11. Global risk from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by nuclear power plant accidents in the coming decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y.; Lelieveld, J.

    2013-11-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 yr (2010-2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential dosages to humans from the inhalation and the exposure to ground deposited radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest during boreal winter due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and reduced mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.

  12. Global Risk from the Atmospheric Dispersion of Radionuclides by Nuclear Power Plant Accidents in the Coming Decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christoudias, T.; Proestos, Y.; Lelieveld, J.

    2014-12-01

    We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010-2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans from inhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.

  13. Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

    In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

  14. Females do not have more injury road accidents on Friday the 13th

    PubMed Central

    Radun, Igor; Summala, Heikki

    2004-01-01

    Background This study reinvestigated the recent finding that females – but not males – die in traffic accidents on Friday the 13th more often than on other Fridays (Näyhä S: Traffic deaths and superstition on Friday the 13th. Am J Psychiatry 2002, 159: 2110–2111). The current study used matched setting and injury accident data base that is more numerous than fatality data. If such an effect would be caused by impaired psychic and psychomotor functioning due to more frequent anxiety among women, it should also appear in injury crashes. Methods We used the national Finnish road accident database for 1989–2002. To control seasonal variation, 21 Fridays the 13th were compared in a matched design to previous and following Fridays, excluding all holidays, on number of accidents, male/female responsibility for accidents, and the number of dead, injured and overall number of active participants (drivers, pedestrians and bicyclists) as a consequence of the accident. Results There were no significant differences in any examined aspect of road injury accidents among the three Fridays, either in females or males. Women were not overrepresented in crashes that occurred on Fridays 13th. Conclusion There is no consistent evidence for females having more road traffic crashes on Fridays the 13th, based on deaths or road accident statistics. However, this does not imply a non-existent effect of superstition related anxiety on accident risk as no exposure-to-risk data are available. People who are anxious of "Black Friday" may stay home, or at least avoid driving a car. PMID:15546493

  15. Retrospective self-reports of childhood accidents causing unconsciousness in phallometrically diagnosed pedophiles.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Ray; Christensen, Bruce K; Strong, Scott M; Cantor, James M; Kuban, Michael E; Klassen, Philip; Dickey, Robert; Blak, Thomas

    2002-12-01

    The present study investigated whetherhead injuries in childhood might increase the risk of pedophilia in males. The subjects were 1206 patients referred to a clinical sexology service for assessment of their erotic preferences. These were classified, on the basis of phallometric test results, as pedophilic (n = 413) or nonpedophilic (n = 793). Information regarding early head injuries, other signs of possible neurodevelopmental problems, and parental histories of psychiatric treatment were collected with self-administered questionnaires. The results showed that childhood accidents that resulted in unconsciousness were associated with pedophilia and with lower levels of intelligence and education. These associations were statistically significant for accidents that occurred before the age of 6, but not for accidents that occurred between the ages of 6 and 12. These results are compatible with the hypothesis that neurodevelopmental perturbations in early childhood may increase the risk of pedophilia. They are also, however, compatible with the alternative explanation that prior neurodevelopmental problems lead to accident-proneness and head injury, on the one hand, and to pedophilia, on the other, and that head injury has no causal influence on pedophilia. A secondary finding was that the pedophiles were more likely to report that their mothers had undergone psychiatric treatment. This finding suggests that pedophilia may be influenced by genetic factors, which are manifested in women as an increased risk of psychiatric problems, and in their sons, as an increased risk of erotic interest in children.

  16. Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data.

    PubMed

    Theofilatos, Athanasios; Yannis, George

    2017-04-03

    Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement. Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement. The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect. The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.

  17. Safety risk assessment for vertical concrete formwork activities in civil engineering construction.

    PubMed

    López-Arquillos, Antonio; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Gibb, Alistair G F; Gambatese, John A

    2014-01-01

    The construction sector has one of the worst occupational health and safety records in Europe. Of all construction tasks, formwork activities are associated with a high frequency of accidents and injuries. This paper presents an investigation of the activities and related safety risks present in vertical formwork for in-situ concrete construction in the civil engineering sector. Using the methodology of staticized groups, twelve activities and ten safety risks were identified and validated by experts. Every safety risk identified in this manner was quantified for each activity using binary methodology according to the frequency and severity scales developed in prior research. A panel of experts was selected according to the relevant literature on staticized groups. The results obtained show that the activities with the highest risk in vertical formwork tasks are: Plumbing and leveling of forms, cutting of material, handling materials with cranes, and climbing or descending ladders. The most dangerous health and safety risks detected were falls from height, cutting and overexertion. The research findings provide construction practitioners with further evidence of the hazardous activities associated with concrete formwork construction and a starting point for targeting worker health and safety programmes.

  18. [Research on accidents in a tire-producing plant].

    PubMed

    Mete, R; Sabatucci, A

    1989-09-30

    In the autumn of 1987 the U.S.L. health service (prevention, hygiene and occupational safety section) began a study about the accidents in a firm manufacturing tyres, placed in its own area. The retrospective enquiry starts from the analysis of typology, diffusion and seriousness of occupational accidents. The firm's accident register has been analyzed and integrated with other necessary information provided by the firm, by I.N.A.I.L. and by the air force metereological service. The study has been carried out on data concerning the following years: 1984-1985-1986. The accidents considered, implied absence from work and were divided as follows: for absence up till 3 days (in franchise), and more than 3 days (indemnified), applying the average value calculated on one year of the three analyzed. Every accident has been analyzed per year, month, day, hour of event. According to the classes: circumstances, kind of lesion, site of lesion, period of absence from work. The indices of: frequency, seriousness, incidence, mean duration have been calculated. The average monthly values of temperature: max and min. of the area and to the average monthly amount of processed elastomer (rate of production). The statistics we obtained, justified the study and showed the operative solution. The aspect of sanitary education and the general psychological aspect regarding the accident have been considered. Moreover the general operative solutions for the firm and specific ones for every department and for every position have been shown and faced up to. In this way, according to the risks that have emerged from the enquiries on previous accidents and thanks to direct inspection. it was possible to prevent accidents.

  19. [Multicenter paragliding accident study 1990].

    PubMed

    Lautenschlager, S; Karli, U; Matter, P

    1992-01-01

    During the period from 1.1.90 until 31.12.90, 86 injuries associated with paragliding were analyzed in a prospective study in 12 different Swiss hospitals with reference to causes, patterns, and frequencies. The injuries showed a mean score of over 2 and were classified as severe. Most frequent spine injuries (36%) and lesions of the lower extremity (35%) with a high risk of the ankles were diagnosed. One accident was fatal. 60% of the accidents happened during landing, 26% during launching and 14% during flight. Half of the pilots were affected during their primary training course. Most accidents were caused by inflight error of judgement--especially incorrect estimation of wind conditions--and further the choice of unfavourable landing sites. In contrast to previous injury-reports, only one equipment failure could be noted, but often the equipment was not corresponding with the experience and the weight of the pilot. To reduce the frequency of paragliding-injuries an accurate choice of equipment and an increased attention to environmental factors is mandatory. Furthermore an education-program regarding the attitude and intelligence of the pilot should be included in training courses.

  20. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.