Sample records for accident survival time

  1. Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

    2006-09-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

  2. Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

    PubMed

    Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

    1990-10-01

    A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

  3. Safety of high-speed guided ground transportation systems : collision avoidance and accident survivability : volume 3 : accident survivability

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-03-01

    This report is the third of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this study is to...

  4. Survival pattern of first accident among commercial drivers in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana.

    PubMed

    Nanga, Salifu; Odai, Nii Afotey; Lotsi, Anani

    2017-06-01

    In this study, the average accident risk of commercial drivers in the Greater Accra region of Ghana and its associated risks were examined based on a survey data collected using paper-based questionnaires from 204 commercial drivers from the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The Cox Proportional Hazards Model was used for multivariate analysis while the Kaplan-Meier (KM) Model was used to study the survival patterns of the commercial drivers. The study revealed that the median survival time for an accident to happen is 2.50 years. Good roads provided a better chance of survival than bad roads and experienced drivers have a better chance of survival than the inexperienced drivers. Age of driver, alcohol usage of driver, marital status, condition of road and duration of driver's license were found to be related to the risk of accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Introduction of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident, Investigation Details, Findings and Crew Survival Investigation Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    As the Space Shuttle Program comes to an end, it is important that the lessons learned from the Columbia accident be captured and understood by those who will be developing future aerospace programs and supporting current programs. Aeromedical lessons learned from the Accident were presented at AsMA in 2005. This Panel will update that information, closeout the lessons learned, provide additional information on the accident and provide suggestions for the future. To set the stage, an overview of the accident is required. The Space Shuttle Columbia was returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts on 1Feb, 2003. It disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana and observers along part of the track filmed the breakup of Columbia. Debris was recovered from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana, along a 567 statute mile track; the largest ever recorded debris field. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) concluded its investigation in August 2003, and released their findings in a report published in February 2004. NASA recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew and the Space Shuttle Program managers commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT) to accomplish this. Their task was to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training and procedures intended to protect the crew. NASA released the Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report in December 2008. Key personnel have been assembled to give you an overview of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, the medical response, the medico-legal issues, the SCSIIT findings and recommendations and future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training. Educational Objectives: Set the stage for the Panel to address the

  6. Aviation occupant survival factors: an empirical study of the SQ006 accident.

    PubMed

    Chang, Yu-Hern; Yang, Hui-Hua

    2010-03-01

    We present an empirical study of Singapore Airline (SIA) flight SQ006 to illustrate the critical factors that influence airplane occupant survivability. The Fuzzy Delphi Method was used to identify and rank the survival factors that may reduce injury and fatality in potentially survivable accidents. This is the first attempt by a group from both the public and private sectors in Taiwan to focus on cabin-safety issues related to survival factors. We designed a comprehensive survey based on our discussions with aviation safety experts. We next designed an array of important cabin-safety dimensions and then investigated and selected the critical survival factors for each dimension. Our findings reveal important cabin safety and survivability information that should provide a valuable reference for developing and evaluating aviation safety programs. We also believe that the results will be practical for designing cabin-safety education material for air travelers. Finally, the major contribution of this research is that it has identified 47 critical factors that influence accident survivability; therefore, it may encourage improvements that will promote more successful cabin-safety management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Survival, neurological recovery and morbidity after spinal cord injuries following road accidents in Israel.

    PubMed

    Tchvaloon, E; Front, L; Gelernter, I; Ronen, J; Bluvshtein, V; Catz, A

    2008-02-01

    A retrospective cohort study. Assess outcomes in patients with spinal cord injuries (SCI) following road accidents, and factors that affect them. Loewenstein Rehabilitation Hospital, Raanana, Israel. A total of 143 patients admitted for rehabilitation between 1962 and 2004. Survival rates were estimated using the product limit (Kaplan-Meyer) method and their association with risk factors was analyzed with the Cox model. Neurological recovery was determined by comparing the Frankel grade at admission to rehabilitation and at discharge. The relation between recovery and various factors was tested with logistic regression. The risk of SCI in road accidents is higher among car drivers and motorcycle or bicycle riders. Median survival was 43 years. Survival was negatively associated with age at injury (P<0.0002) and with diagnosis of pressure sores (P=0.0065). Recovery of at least one Frankel grade occurred in 29.1% of patients. Useful recovery (upgrade to Frankel grade D or E) occurred in 23.1% of all patients. Neurological recovery was negatively associated with the severity of neurological deficit (P<0.001) and with thoracic injuries (P=0.046). The most common complications were pressure sores and those of the urinary and respiratory systems. In SCI following road accidents, survival rates were higher and recovery rates lower than in mixed types of trauma. This may be related to better compensation followed by better nursing for road accident victims in Israel, which may prevent life-shortening complications, and to more severe injuries caused by road accidents.

  8. Time to death analysis of road traffic accidents in relation to delta V, drunk driving, and restraint systems.

    PubMed

    Ju, Yonghan; Sohn, So Young

    2014-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to identify variables related to the expected time to death due to road traffic accidents (RTAs). Such research is expected to be useful in improving safety laws and regulations and developing new safety systems. The resulting information is crucial not only for reducing accident fatalities but for assessing related insurance policies. In this article, we analyze factors that are potentially associated with variation in the expected survival time after a road traffic accident using Weibull regression. In particular, we consider the association with alcohol involvement, delta V, and restraint systems. Our empirical results, obtained based on the NASS-CDS, indicate that the expected survival time for non-alcohol-impaired drivers is 3.23 times longer at a delta V of 50 km/h than that for alcohol-impaired drivers under the same conditions. In addition, it was observed that, even when occupants were alcohol-impaired, if they were protected by both air bags and seat belts, their expected survival time after an RTA increased 2.59-fold compared to alcohol-impaired drivers who used only seat belts. Our findings may be useful in improving road traffic safety and insurance policies by offering insights into the factors that reduce fatalities.

  9. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  10. Survivability Versus Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2014-01-01

    Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

  11. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  12. Safety of High Speed and Guided Ground Transportation Systems: Collision Avoidance and Accident Survivability: Volume 3

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-03-01

    This report is the third of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed : guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in : this study i...

  13. [Reaction time of drivers who caused road traffic accidents].

    PubMed

    Durić, Predrag; Filipović, Danka

    2009-01-01

    Human factor is the single cause of road traffic injuries in 57%, and together with other factors in more than 90% of all road traffic accidents. Human factor includes many aspects, where reaction time is very important. Thirty healthy drivers 28-40 y.o. with 50-500 km passed per week, having caused at least one road traffic accident in the last ten years were selected, provided they were not under the influence of alcohol and drugs during traffic accident. The same number of control were selected. Both cases and controls were tested to reaction time. We found statistically significant difference between car drivers who caused car accidents and those who did not in both simple and choice reaction times. Car drivers who caused road traffic accidents have longer reaction time (both simple and choice reaction time), but as the tasks were more complex, that difference was less visible. Since drivers involved in this study had introductory phase before measuring their reaction times, they faced with unpleasant sound when they made mistake, which forced them to be aware not to make a mistake in further tasks, so they showed longer reaction times. Measuring of reaction time seems to be important, and as we have showed they are different in drivers who have caused road traffic accidents and those who have do not.

  14. Safety of high-speed guided ground transportation : collision avoidance and accident survivability : volume 1 : collision threat

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-03-01

    This report is the first of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this study is to...

  15. Behavior of road accidents: Structural time series approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-12-01

    Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.

  16. Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2013-01-01

    Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

  17. Safety of High Speed Guided Ground Transportation Systems: Collision Avoidance and Accident Survivability Volume 4: Proposed Specifications

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-03-01

    This report is the fourth of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed : guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this : study ...

  18. Safety of high-speed guided ground transportation systems : collision avoidance and accident survivability : volume 4 : proposed specifications

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-03-01

    This report is the fourth of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this study is t...

  19. Safety of high-speed guided ground transportation systems : collision avoidance and accident survivability : volume 2 : collision avoidance

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-03-01

    This report is the second of four volumes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this study is t...

  20. Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Road Traffic Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Lahti, Tuuli; Nysten, Esa; Haukka, Jari; Sulander, Pekka; Partonen, Timo

    2010-01-01

    Circadian rhythm disruptions may have harmful impacts on health. Circadian rhythm disruptions caused by jet lag compromise the quality and amount of sleep and may lead to a variety of symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and loss of attention and alertness. Even a minor change in time schedule may cause considerable stress for the body. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time alter the social and environmental timing twice a year. According to earlier studies, this change in time-schedule leads to sleep disruption and fragmentation of the circadian rhythm. Since sleep deprivation decreases motivation, attention, and alertness, transitions into and out of daylight saving time may increase the amount of accidents during the following days after the transition. We studied the amount of road traffic accidents one week before and one week after transitions into and out of daylight saving time during years from 1981 to 2006. Our results demonstrated that transitions into and out of daylight saving time did not increase the number of traffic road accidents. PMID:20652036

  1. Safety of High Speed and Ground Guided Transportation Systems: Collision Avoidance and Accident Survivability: Volume 1: Collision Threat

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1993-03-01

    This report is the first of four volunes concerned with developing safety guidelines and specifications for high-speed : guided ground transportation (HSGGT) collision avoidance and accident survivability. The overall approach taken in this : study i...

  2. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  3. Reduction in predicted survival times in cold water due to wind and waves.

    PubMed

    Power, Jonathan; Simões Ré, António; Barwood, Martin; Tikuisis, Peter; Tipton, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Recent marine accidents have called into question the level of protection provided by immersion suits in real (harsh) life situations. Two immersion suit studies, one dry and the other with 500 mL of water underneath the suit, were conducted in cold water with 10-12 males in each to test body heat loss under three environmental conditions: calm, as mandated for immersion suit certification, and two combinations of wind plus waves to simulate conditions typically found offshore. In both studies mean skin heat loss was higher in wind and waves vs. calm; deep body temperature and oxygen consumption were not different. Mean survival time predictions exceeded 36 h for all conditions in the first study but were markedly less in the second in both calm and wind and waves. Immersion suit protection and consequential predicted survival times under realistic environmental conditions and with leakage are reduced relative to calm conditions. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Aeromedical Lessons Learned from the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, Mike

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an update on the Columbia accident response presented in 2005 with additional information that was not available at that time. It will provide information on the following topics: (1) medical response and Search and Rescue, (2) medico-legal issues associated with the accident, (3) the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team Report published in 2008, and (4) future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training.

  5. Work time control, sleep & accident risk: A prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Philip; Albrecht, Sophie; Kecklund, Göran; Beckers, Debby G J; Leineweber, Constanze

    We examined whether the beneficial impact of work time control (WTC) on sleep leads to lower accident risk, using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Sweden. Logistic regressions examined WTC in 2010 and 2012 as predictors of accidents occurring in the subsequent 2 years (N = 4840 and 4337, respectively). Sleep disturbance and frequency of short sleeps in 2012 were examined as potential mediators of the associations between WTC in 2010 and subsequent accidents as reported in 2014 (N = 3636). All analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, occupational category, weekly work hours, shift work status, job control and perceived accident risk at work. In both waves, overall WTC was inversely associated with accidents (p = 0.048 and p = 0.038, respectively). Analyses of the sub-dimensions of WTC indicated that Control over Daily Hours (influence over start and finish times, and over length of shift) did not predict accidents in either wave, while Control over Time-off (CoT; influence over taking breaks, running private errands during work and taking paid leave) predicted fewer accidents in both waves (p = 0.013 and p = 0.010). Sleep disturbance in 2012 mediated associations between WTC/CoT in 2010 and accidents in 2014, although effects' sizes were small (effectWTC = -0.006, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.018 to -0.001; effectCoT = -0.009, 95%CI = -0.022 to -0.001; unstandardized coefficients), with the indirect effects of sleep disturbance accounting for less than 5% of the total direct and indirect effects. Frequency of short sleeps was not a significant mediator. WTC reduces the risk of subsequently being involved in an accident, although sleep may not be a strong component of the mechanism underlying this association.

  6. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2015-01-01

    This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

  7. Civilian helicopter accidents into water: analysis of 46 cases, 1979-2006.

    PubMed

    Brooks, Christopher James; MacDonald, Conor Vaughan; Donati, Leo; Taber, Michael John

    2008-10-01

    When a helicopter crashes or ditches into water the crew and passengers must often make an escape from underwater and a number of the occupants do not survive. This paper examined fatality rates, human factors problems with escape, and causes of death in Canadian civilian registered helicopter accidents in water (1979-2006). Data obtained from the Transportation Safety Board of Canada was reviewed. Key issues such as fatalities, injuries, warning time, sinking, and inversion were examined. There were 46 helicopters that ditched into water. There were 124 crew and passengers involved. Of those, 27 (23%) crew and passengers died. Lack of warning time (55%), rapid sinking (72%), and inversion (35%) were the most common issues in the accidents. Survival rates for Canadian registered helicopter accidents into water (78%) show little change from previously reported worldwide data. Lack of warning time, rapid sinking, and inversion were the significant factors in the survival rate. The practical implication is that crew and passengers involved in planned flights over water must wear all the life support equipment on strap-in and not have it stowed on the back of the seat or in the cabin.

  8. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

  9. Accident rates and the impact of daylight saving time transitions.

    PubMed

    Robb, David; Barnes, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    One-third of nations have adopted some form of Daylight Saving Time (DST). Associated costs and benefits include impacts on accident rates. Using data from 12.6 million accident claims in New Zealand during 2005-2016, we model accident rates as a function of various date-based predictors including days before/after the start and end of DST, holidays, day of week, and month of year. This is the first study to consider multiple accident categories (Road, Work, Falls and Home & Community), and the first in the southern hemisphere. The start of DST is associated with significantly higher rates of road accidents (first day +16% and second day +12%). Evidence that accident rates for Falls and Home & Community decline (increase) prior to the start (end) of DST suggest potential behavioural adaption from anticipating the change. While Work accidents show limited impact from DST changes, they exhibit a significant decline over the course of the week (Friday 13% lower than Monday), whereas Road accidents exhibit a significant increase (Friday 19% higher than Monday). Our results have implications for both DST implementation and policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-10-01

    Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  11. Fatal accidents following changes in daylight savings time: the American experience.

    PubMed

    Varughese; Allen

    2001-01-01

    Objective: This study examines specific hypotheses that both sleep loss and behavioral changes occurring with the time shifts for Daylight Savings Time (DST) significantly effect the number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States of America.Background: It has been reported that there is a significant increase in the number of automobile accidents in the spring shift to DST due to the loss of 1 h of sleep. But the extra hour gained at night with the shift from DST in the fall has been variably reported to be associated with increases and decreases in the number of automobile accidents which may reflect either behavioral anticipation with an extended late night prior to the change or the benefit of extra sleep after the change.Methods: Data from 21 years of United States' fatal automobile accidents were gathered. The mean number of accidents on the days at the time of the shifts (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) was compared to the average of the corresponding mean number of accidents on the matching day of the weeks preceding and following the shift. This was repeated for each DST shift. The number of accidents for a particular shift was also correlated with the year of the accidents.Results: There was a significant increase in accidents for the Monday immediately following the spring shift to DST (t=1.92, P=0.034). There was also a significant increase in number of accidents on the Sunday of the fall shift from DST (P<0.002). No significant changes were observed for the other days. A significant negative correlation with the year was found between the number of accidents on the Saturdays and Sundays but not Mondays.Conclusions: The sleep deprivation on the Monday following shift to DST in the spring results in a small increase in fatal accidents. The behavioral adaptation anticipating the longer day on Sunday of the shift from DST in the fall leads to an increased number of accidents suggesting an increase in late night (early Sunday morning) driving when

  12. Implementation of a real-time intersection accident detection system (Phase 1).

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2004-10-01

    The focus of this research is the feasibility study for the implementation of a real-time accident : detection system at intersections. After reviewing accident detection algorithms investigated in the prior : phase of the research, we explored schem...

  13. Daylight saving time transitions and hospital treatments due to accidents or manic episodes

    PubMed Central

    Lahti, Tuuli A; Haukka, Jari; Lönnqvist, Jouko; Partonen, Timo

    2008-01-01

    Background Daylight saving time affects millions of people annually but its impacts are still widely unknown. Sleep deprivation and the change of circadian rhythm can trigger mental illness and cause higher accident rates. Transitions into and out of daylight saving time changes the circadian rhythm and may cause sleep deprivation. Thus it seems plausible that the prevalence of accidents and/or manic episodes may be higher after transition into and out of daylight saving time. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of transitions into and out of daylight saving time on the incidence of accidents and manic episodes in the Finnish population during the years of 1987 to 2003. Methods The nationwide data were derived from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. From the register we obtained the information about the hospital-treated accidents and manic episodes during two weeks before and two weeks after the transitions in 1987–2003. Results The results were negative, as the transitions into or out of daylight saving time had no significant effect on the incidence of accidents or manic episodes. Conclusion One-hour transitions do not increase the incidence of manic episodes or accidents which require hospital treatment. PMID:18302734

  14. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    PubMed

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  15. Spatiotemporal characteristics of elderly population's traffic accidents in Seoul using space-time cube and space-time kernel density estimation.

    PubMed

    Kang, Youngok; Cho, Nahye; Son, Serin

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze how the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly population in Seoul are changing by time period. We applied kernel density estimation and hotspot analyses to analyze the spatial characteristics of elderly people's traffic accidents, and the space-time cube, emerging hotspot, and space-time kernel density estimation analyses to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics. In addition, we analyzed elderly people's traffic accidents by dividing cases into those in which the drivers were elderly people and those in which elderly people were victims of traffic accidents, and used the traffic accidents data in Seoul for 2013 for analysis. The main findings were as follows: (1) the hotspots for elderly people's traffic accidents differed according to whether they were drivers or victims. (2) The hourly analysis showed that the hotspots for elderly drivers' traffic accidents are in specific areas north of the Han River during the period from morning to afternoon, whereas the hotspots for elderly victims are distributed over a wide area from daytime to evening. (3) Monthly analysis showed that the hotspots are weak during winter and summer, whereas they are strong in the hiking and climbing areas in Seoul during spring and fall. Further, elderly victims' hotspots are more sporadic than elderly drivers' hotspots. (4) The analysis for the entire period of 2013 indicates that traffic accidents involving elderly people are increasing in specific areas on the north side of the Han River. We expect the results of this study to aid in reducing the number of traffic accidents involving elderly people in the future.

  16. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Hyojoon; Park, Misun; Jeong, Haesun; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents. PMID:24619120

  17. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

    PubMed Central

    Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

  18. Fledgling survival increases with development time and adult survival across north and south temperate zones

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lloyd, Penn; Martin, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Slow life histories are characterized by high adult survival and few offspring, which are thought to allow increased investment per offspring to increase juvenile survival. Consistent with this pattern, south temperate zone birds are commonly longer-lived and have fewer young than north temperate zone species. However, comparative analyses of juvenile survival, including during the first few weeks of the post-fledging period when most juvenile mortality occurs, are largely lacking. We combined our measurements of fledgling survival for eight passerines in South Africa with estimates from published studies of 57 north and south temperate zone songbird species to test three predictions: (1) fledgling survival increases with length of development time in the nest; (2) fledgling survival increases with adult survival and reduced brood size controlled for development time; and (3) south temperate zone species, with their higher adult survival and smaller brood sizes, exhibit higher fledgling survival than north temperate zone species controlled for development time. We found that fledgling survival was higher among south temperate zone species and generally increased with development time and adult survival within and between latitudinal regions. Clutch size did not explain additional variation, but was confounded with adult survival. Given the importance of age-specific mortality to life history evolution, understanding the causes of these geographical patterns of mortality is important.

  19. Instrumentation Performance During the TMI-2 Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rempe, Joy L.; Knudson, Darrell L.

    2014-08-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. The loss of coolant and the hydrogen combustion that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focused upon a set of sensors that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this paper. As noted within this paper, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident program to evaluate sensor survivability status and data qualification, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this paper provides recommendations related to sensor survivability and the data evaluation process that could be implemented in upcoming Fukushima Daiichi recovery efforts.

  20. Spatiotemporal characteristics of elderly population’s traffic accidents in Seoul using space-time cube and space-time kernel density estimation

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Nahye; Son, Serin

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze how the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly population in Seoul are changing by time period. We applied kernel density estimation and hotspot analyses to analyze the spatial characteristics of elderly people’s traffic accidents, and the space-time cube, emerging hotspot, and space-time kernel density estimation analyses to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics. In addition, we analyzed elderly people’s traffic accidents by dividing cases into those in which the drivers were elderly people and those in which elderly people were victims of traffic accidents, and used the traffic accidents data in Seoul for 2013 for analysis. The main findings were as follows: (1) the hotspots for elderly people’s traffic accidents differed according to whether they were drivers or victims. (2) The hourly analysis showed that the hotspots for elderly drivers’ traffic accidents are in specific areas north of the Han River during the period from morning to afternoon, whereas the hotspots for elderly victims are distributed over a wide area from daytime to evening. (3) Monthly analysis showed that the hotspots are weak during winter and summer, whereas they are strong in the hiking and climbing areas in Seoul during spring and fall. Further, elderly victims’ hotspots are more sporadic than elderly drivers’ hotspots. (4) The analysis for the entire period of 2013 indicates that traffic accidents involving elderly people are increasing in specific areas on the north side of the Han River. We expect the results of this study to aid in reducing the number of traffic accidents involving elderly people in the future. PMID:29768453

  1. Crashworthiness studies : cabin, seat, restraint, and injury findings in selected general aviation accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1982-03-01

    This report reviews 47 survivable or partly survivable accidents investigated since 1973 by personnel from the Civil Aeromedical Institute. The accidents were reviewed for a number of features of crashworthiness and, in particular, for injuries to oc...

  2. Survival time with pacemaker implantation for dogs diagnosed with persistent atrial standstill.

    PubMed

    Cervenec, R M; Stauthammer, C D; Fine, D M; Kellihan, H B; Scansen, B A

    2017-06-01

    To evaluate survival time in dogs with persistent atrial standstill after pacemaker implantation and to compare the survival times for cardiac-related vs. non-cardiac deaths. Secondary objectives were to evaluate the effects of breed and the presence of congestive heart failure (CHF) at the time of diagnosis on survival time. Twenty dogs with persistent atrial standstill and pacemaker implantation. Medical records were searched to identify dogs diagnosed with persistent atrial standstill based on electrocardiogram that underwent pacemaker implantation. Survival after pacemaker implantation was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The median survival time after pacemaker implantation for all-cause mortality was 866 days. There was no significant difference (p=0.573) in median survival time for cardiac (506 days) vs. non-cardiac deaths (400 days). The presence of CHF at the time of diagnosis did not affect the survival time (P=0.854). No difference in median survival time was noted between breeds (P=0.126). Dogs with persistent atrial standstill have a median survival time of 866 days with pacemaker implantation, though a wide range of survival times was observed. There was no difference in the median survival time for dogs with cardiac-related deaths and those without. Patient breed and the presence of CHF before pacemaker implantation did not affect median survival time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    PubMed

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  4. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    PubMed

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  5. Survivors Perceptions of Recovery following Air Medical Transport Accidents.

    PubMed

    Jaynes, Cathy L; Valdez, Anna; Hamilton, Megan; Haugen, Krista; Henry, Colin; Jones, Pat; Werman, Howard A; White, Lynn J

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective: Air medical transport (AMT) teams play an essential role in the care of the critically ill and injured. Their work, however, is not without risk. Since the inception of the industry numerous AMT accidents have been reported. The objective of this research is to gain a better understanding of the post-accident sequelae for professionals who have survived AMT accidents. The hope is that this understanding will empower the industry to better support survivors and plan for the contingencies of post-accident recovery. Methods: Qualitative methods were used to explore the experience of flight crew members who have survived an AMT accident. "Accident" was defined using criteria established by the National Transportation Safety Board. Traditional focus group methodology explored the survivors' experiences following the accident. Results: Seven survivors participated in the focus group. Content analysis revealed themes in four major domains that described the experience of survivors: Physical, Psychological, Relational and Financial. Across the themes survivors reported that industry and company response varied greatly, ranging from generous support, understanding and action to make safety improvements, to little response or action and lack of attention to survivor needs. Conclusion: Planning for AMT post-accident response was identified to be lacking in scope and quality. More focused efforts are needed to assist and support the survivors as they regain both their personal and professional lives following the accident. This planning should include all stakeholders in safe transport; the individual crewmember, air medical transport companies, and the industry at large.

  6. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2013-03-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensorsmore » that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data

  7. TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

    2014-05-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensorsmore » that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data

  8. Dose-dependent analysis of acute medical effects of mixed neutron-gamma radiation from selected severe 235U or 239Pu criticality accidents in USSR, United States, and Argentina.

    PubMed

    Barabanova, Tatyana; Wiley, Albert L; Bushmanov, Andrey

    2012-04-01

    Eight of the most severe cases of acute radiation disease (ARS) known to have occurred in humans (as the result of criticality accidents) had survival times less than 120 h (herein defined as "early death"). These accidents were analyzed and are discussed with respect to the specific accident scenarios and the resulting accident-specific, mixed neutron-gamma radiation clinical dose distributions. This analysis concludes that the cardiovascular system appears to be the most critical organ system failure for causing "early death" following approximate total body, mixed gamma-neutron radiation doses greater than 40-50 Gy. The clinical data also suggest that there was definite chest dose dependence in the resulting survival times for these eight workers, who unfortunately suffered profound radiation injury and unusual clinical effects from such high dose radiation exposures. In addition, "toxemic syndrome" is correlated with the irradiation of large volumes of soft tissues. Doses to the hands or legs greater than 80-100 Gy or radiation lung injury also play significant but secondary roles in causing "early death" in accidents delivering chest doses greater than 50 Gy.

  9. Interpreting Significant Discrete-Time Periods in Survival Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schumacker, Randall E.; Denson, Kathleen B.

    Discrete-time survival analysis is a new method for educational researchers to employ when looking at the timing of certain educational events. Previous continuous-time methods do not allow for the flexibility inherent in a discrete-time method. Because both time-invariant and time-varying predictor variables can now be used, the interaction of…

  10. Real-time EEG-based detection of fatigue driving danger for accident prediction.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hong; Zhang, Chi; Shi, Tianwei; Wang, Fuwang; Ma, Shujun

    2015-03-01

    This paper proposes a real-time electroencephalogram (EEG)-based detection method of the potential danger during fatigue driving. To determine driver fatigue in real time, wavelet entropy with a sliding window and pulse coupled neural network (PCNN) were used to process the EEG signals in the visual area (the main information input route). To detect the fatigue danger, the neural mechanism of driver fatigue was analyzed. The functional brain networks were employed to track the fatigue impact on processing capacity of brain. The results show the overall functional connectivity of the subjects is weakened after long time driving tasks. The regularity is summarized as the fatigue convergence phenomenon. Based on the fatigue convergence phenomenon, we combined both the input and global synchronizations of brain together to calculate the residual amount of the information processing capacity of brain to obtain the dangerous points in real time. Finally, the danger detection system of the driver fatigue based on the neural mechanism was validated using accident EEG. The time distributions of the output danger points of the system have a good agreement with those of the real accident points.

  11. Survival time estimation using Injury Severity Score (ISS) in homicide cases.

    PubMed

    Cros, Jérôme; Alvarez, Jean-Claude; Sbidian, Emilie; Charlier, Philippe; de la Grandmaison, Geoffroy Lorin

    2013-12-10

    The aim of our study was to assess the value of ISS to estimate survival time in a retrospective study of all homicidal deaths in the Western suburbs of Paris between 1994 and 2008. Stab wounds were the most common cause of death. Survival time between assault and death, determined in 107 cases out of 511 homicide cases, ranged from 0 min to 25 days (mean 39 h). There was an overall significant association between the survival time and the ISS score. ISS and survival time were strongly associated with male victims and a clear trend was seen with women. Regarding the type of wounds, a trend was seen with gunshot wounds and blunt injuries, but not with stab wounds. There was no influence of blood toxicological results and resuscitation attempts. Overall, ISS was a good predictor of a survival under 30 min. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Survival analysis: Part I — analysis of time-to-event

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    Length of time is a variable often encountered during data analysis. Survival analysis provides simple, intuitive results concerning time-to-event for events of interest, which are not confined to death. This review introduces methods of analyzing time-to-event. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling method are described with examples of hypothetical data. PMID:29768911

  13. Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data.

    PubMed

    Theofilatos, Athanasios; Yannis, George

    2017-04-03

    Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement. Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement. The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect. The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.

  14. Erythrocyte survival time in Greyhounds as assessed by use of in vivo biotinylation.

    PubMed

    Garon, Catherine L; Cohn, Leah A; Scott, Michael A

    2010-09-01

    To determine erythrocyte survival time in Greyhounds. 6 Greyhounds used as blood donors and 3 privately owned non-Greyhound dogs. In vivo biotinylation of erythrocytes was performed by infusion of biotin-N-hydroxysuccinimide into each dog via a jugular vein catheter. Blood samples were collected 12 hours later and then at weekly intervals and were used to determine the percentage of biotin-labeled erythrocytes at each time point. Erythrocytes were washed, incubated with avidin-fluorescein isothiocyanate, and washed again before the percentage of biotinylated erythrocytes was measured by use of flow cytometry. Survival curves for the percentage of biotinylated erythrocytes were generated, and erythrocyte survival time was defined as the x-intercept of a least squares best-fit line for the linear portion of each curve. The R2 for survival curves ranged from 0.93 to 0.99 during the first 10 weeks after infusion of erythrocytes. Erythrocyte survival time for the 3 non-Greyhound dogs was 94, 98, and 116 days, respectively, which was consistent with previously reported values. Erythrocyte survival time for the 6 Greyhounds ranged from 83 to 110 days (mean, 93 days; median, 88 days). As determined by use of in vivo biotinylation, erythrocyte survival times in Greyhounds were similar to those determined for non-Greyhound dogs and did not differ significantly from erythrocyte survival times reported previously for non-Greyhound dogs. Erythrocyte survival time was similar in Greyhounds and non-Greyhound dogs. Greyhounds can be used as erythrocyte donors without concerns about inherently shorter erythrocyte survival time.

  15. Aggregation increases prey survival time in group chase and escape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Sicong; Jiang, Shijie; Jiang, Li; Li, Geng; Han, Zhangang

    2014-08-01

    Recently developed chase-and-escape models have addressed a fascinating pursuit-and-evasion problem that may have both theoretical significance and potential applications. We introduce three aggregation strategies for the prey in a group chase model on a lattice. Simulation results show that aggregation dramatically increases the group survival time, even allowing immortal prey. The average survival time τ and the aggregation probability P have a power-law dependence of \\tau \\sim {{(1-P)}^{-1}} for P\\in [0.9,0.997]. With increasing numbers of predators, there is still a phase transition. When the number of predators is less than the critical point value, the prey group survival time increases significantly.

  16. Early morning awakening and nonrestorative sleep are associated with increased minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Hsiao-Yean; Wang, Mei-Yeh; Chang, Cheng-Kuei; Chen, Ching-Min; Chou, Kuei-Ru; Tsai, Jen-Chen; Tsai, Pei-Shan

    2014-10-01

    The relationship between a composite measure of insomnia and occupational or fatal accidents has been investigated previously; however, little is known regarding the effect of various insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. We investigated the predicting role of insomnia symptoms on minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time. Data from the 2005 Taiwan Social Development Trend Survey of 36,473 Taiwanese aged ≥18 years were analyzed in 2013. Insomnia symptoms, including difficulty in initiating sleep (DIS), difficulty in maintaining sleep (DMS), early morning awakening (EMA), and nonrestorative sleep (NRS) were investigated. A minor non-fatal accident was defined as any mishap such as forgetting to turn off the gas or faucets, accidental falls, and abrasions or cuts occurring during work and leisure time in the past month that do not require immediate medical attention. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) of minor non-fatal accidents (as a binary variable) for each insomnia symptom compared with those of people presenting no symptoms, while controlling for possible confounders. EMA and NRS increased the odds of minor non-fatal accidents occurring during work and leisure time (adjusted OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.08-1.32 and adjusted OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.17-1.37, respectively). EMA and NRS are two symptoms that are significantly associated with an increased likelihood of minor non-fatal accidents during work and leisure time after adjusting for of a range of covariates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

  18. Association of surgical approach with complication rate, progression-free survival time, and disease-specific survival time in cats with mammary adenocarcinoma: 107 cases (1991-2014).

    PubMed

    Gemignani, Francesco; Mayhew, Philipp D; Giuffrida, Michelle A; Palaigos, Jason; Runge, Jeffrey J; Holt, David E; Robertson, Nicholas A; Seguin, Bernard; Walker, Meaghan; Singh, Ameet; Liptak, Julius M; Romanelli, Giorgio; Martano, Marina; Boston, Sarah E; Lux, Cassie; Busetto, Roberto; Culp, William T N; Skorupski, Katherine A; Burton, Jenna H

    2018-06-01

    OBJECTIVE To evaluate potential associations between surgical approach and complication rate, progression-free survival time, and disease-specific survival time in cats with mammary adenocarcinoma. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 107 client-owned cats. PROCEDURES Medical records of cats that underwent surgical excision of mammary adenocarcinoma by means of a unilateral or bilateral (staged or single-session) mastectomy at 9 hospitals between 1991 and 2014 were reviewed. Relevant clinicopathologic data and details of surgical and adjuvant treatments were recorded. Outcome data were obtained, including postoperative complications, progression-free survival time, and disease-specific survival time. RESULTS Complications occurred in 12 of 61 (19.7%) cats treated with unilateral mastectomy, 5 of 14 (35.7%) cats treated with staged bilateral mastectomy, and 13 of 32 (40.6%) cats treated with single-session bilateral mastectomy. Complications were significantly more likely to occur in cats undergoing bilateral versus unilateral mastectomy. Median progression-free survival time was longer for cats treated with bilateral mastectomy (542 days) than for cats treated with unilateral mastectomy (289 days). Significant risk factors for disease progression included unilateral mastectomy, tumor ulceration, lymph node metastasis, and tumors arising in the fourth mammary gland. Significant risk factors for disease-specific death included lymph node metastasis and development of regional or distant metastasis. Among cats that did not develop metastasis, unilateral mastectomy was a significant risk factor for disease-specific death. Treatment with chemotherapy was associated with a significantly decreased risk of disease-specific death. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results supported bilateral mastectomy for the treatment of mammary adenocarcinoma in cats to improve progression-free and disease-specific survival time. Performing bilateral mastectomy in a staged fashion

  19. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age‐structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2012-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age‐structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age‐specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age‐structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age‐specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age‐structure data.

  20. Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

    2016-08-01

    A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0. © The Author(s) 2013.

  1. Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

    PubMed

    Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

    2017-12-01

    Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Professional experience and traffic accidents/near-miss accidents among truck drivers.

    PubMed

    Girotto, Edmarlon; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; González, Alberto Durán; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the relationship between the time working as a truck driver and the report of involvement in traffic accidents or near-miss accidents. A cross-sectional study was performed with truck drivers transporting products from the Brazilian grain harvest to the Port of Paranaguá, Paraná, Brazil. The drivers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, behavior in traffic and involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents in the previous 12 months. Subsequently, the participants answered a self-applied questionnaire on substance use. The time of professional experience as drivers was categorized in tertiles. Statistical analyses were performed through the construction of models adjusted by multinomial regression to assess the relationship between the length of experience as a truck driver and the involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents. This study included 665 male drivers with an average age of 42.2 (±11.1) years. Among them, 7.2% and 41.7% of the drivers reported involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, respectively. In fully adjusted analysis, the 3rd tertile of professional experience (>22years) was shown to be inversely associated with involvement in accidents (odds ratio [OR] 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.52) and near-miss accidents (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05-0.53). The 2nd tertile of professional experience (11-22 years) was inversely associated with involvement in accidents (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.98). An evident relationship was observed between longer professional experience and a reduction in reporting involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, regardless of age, substance use, working conditions and behavior in traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Semiparametric methods to contrast gap time survival functions: Application to repeat kidney transplantation.

    PubMed

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2016-06-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-identifiability of the marginal distributions and the existence of dependent censoring (for all but the first gap time). We use Cox regression to estimate the (conditional) survival distributions of each gap time (given the previous gap times). Combining fitted survival functions based on those models, along with multiple imputation applied to censored gap times, we then contrast the first and second gap times with respect to average survival and restricted mean lifetime. Large-sample properties are derived, with simulation studies carried out to evaluate finite-sample performance. We apply the proposed methods to kidney transplant data obtained from a national organ transplant registry. Mean 10-year graft survival of the primary transplant is significantly greater than that of the repeat transplant, by 3.9 months (p=0.023), a result that may lack clinical importance. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Survival time of the susceptible-infected-susceptible infection process on a graph.

    PubMed

    van de Bovenkamp, Ruud; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2015-09-01

    The survival time T is the longest time that a virus, a meme, or a failure can propagate in a network. Using the hitting time of the absorbing state in an uniformized embedded Markov chain of the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov process, we derive an exact expression for the average survival time E[T] of a virus in the complete graph K_{N} and the star graph K_{1,N-1}. By using the survival time, instead of the average fraction of infected nodes, we propose a new method to approximate the SIS epidemic threshold τ_{c} that, at least for K_{N} and K_{1,N-1}, correctly scales with the number of nodes N and that is superior to the epidemic threshold τ_{c}^{(1)}=1/λ_{1} of the N-intertwined mean-field approximation, where λ_{1} is the spectral radius of the adjacency matrix of the graph G. Although this new approximation of the epidemic threshold offers a more intuitive understanding of the SIS process, it remains difficult to compare outbreaks in different graph types. For example, the survival in an arbitrary graph seems upper bounded by the complete graph and lower bounded by the star graph as a function of the normalized effective infection rate τ/τ_{c}^{(1)}. However, when the average fraction of infected nodes is used as a basis for comparison, the virus will survive in the star graph longer than in any other graph, making the star graph the worst-case graph instead of the complete graph. Finally, in non-Markovian SIS, the distribution of the spreading attempts over the infectious period of a node influences the survival time, even if the expected number of spreading attempts during an infectious period (the non-Markovian equivalent of the effective infection rate) is kept constant. Both early and late infection attempts lead to shorter survival times. Interestingly, just as in Markovian SIS, the survival times appear to be exponentially distributed, regardless of the infection and curing time distributions.

  5. The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

    PubMed

    Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

    2009-04-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

  6. Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

    PubMed

    2011-01-01

    In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

  7. Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?

    PubMed

    Green, Colin P; Heywood, John S; Navarro, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Legal bar closing times in England and Wales have historically been early and uniform. Recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to "beat the clock." Indeed, using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents. This decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers. Moreover, we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation: late nights and early mornings on weekends. This evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Improved survival time: what can survival cure models tell us about population-based survival improvements in late-stage colorectal, ovarian, and testicular cancer?

    PubMed

    Huang, Lan; Cronin, Kathleen A; Johnson, Karen A; Mariotto, Angela B; Feuer, Eric J

    2008-05-15

    The objective of the current study was to investigate the long-term impact of treatment advances on the survival of patients with late-stage ovarian, colorectal (American Joint Committee on Cancer stage III, men), and testicular cancers by estimating the increase in the percentage cured from their disease and the change in survival time of uncured patients. Cause-specific survival data from 1973 to 2000 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Survival cure models were fit and were used to estimate the gain in life expectancy (GLE) attributed to an increase in the fraction of cured patients and to prolonged survival among noncured patients. Treatment improvement for ovarian cancer resulted in a total GLE of 2 years, and 80% of that GLE was because of an extension of survival time in uncured patients (from 0.9 years to 2.1 years) rather than an increased cure fraction (from 12% to 14%). In contrast, the cure rate rose from 29% to 47% for colorectal cancer, representing 82% of a 2.8-year GLE, and from 23% to 81% for testicular cancer, representing 100% of a 24-year GLE. The current results suggested that treatment benefits for testicular and colorectal cancer in men with late-stage disease primarily are the result of increases in cure fraction, whereas survival gains for ovarian cancer occur despite persisting disease. Cure models, in combination with population-level data, provide insight into how treatment advances are changing survival and ultimately impacting mortality. Survival patterns reflect the underlying biology of response to cancer treatment and suggest promising directions for future research.

  9. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times.

    PubMed

    Dixit, Vinayak V; Chand, Sai; Nair, Divya J

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems.

  10. Autonomous Vehicles: Disengagements, Accidents and Reaction Times

    PubMed Central

    Dixit, Vinayak V.; Chand, Sai; Nair, Divya J.

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles are being viewed with scepticism in their ability to improve safety and the driving experience. A critical issue with automated driving at this stage of its development is that it is not yet reliable and safe. When automated driving fails, or is limited, the autonomous mode disengages and the drivers are expected to resume manual driving. For this transition to occur safely, it is imperative that drivers react in an appropriate and timely manner. Recent data released from the California trials provide compelling insights into the current factors influencing disengagements of autonomous mode. Here we show that the number of accidents observed has a significantly high correlation with the autonomous miles travelled. The reaction times to take control of the vehicle in the event of a disengagement was found to have a stable distribution across different companies at 0.83 seconds on average. However, there were differences observed in reaction times based on the type of disengagements, type of roadway and autonomous miles travelled. Lack of trust caused by the exposure to automated disengagements was found to increase the likelihood to take control of the vehicle manually. Further, with increased vehicle miles travelled the reaction times were found to increase, which suggests an increased level of trust with more vehicle miles travelled. We believe that this research would provide insurers, planners, traffic management officials and engineers fundamental insights into trust and reaction times that would help them design and engineer their systems. PMID:27997566

  11. Probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water.

    PubMed

    Wissler, Eugene H

    2003-01-01

    Estimating the probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water presents formidable challenges for both theoreticians and empirics. A number of theoretical models have been developed assuming that death occurs when the central body temperature, computed using a mathematical model, falls to a certain level. This paper describes a different theoretical approach to estimating the probability of survival. The human thermal model developed by Wissler is used to compute the central temperature during immersion in cold water. Simultaneously, a survival probability function is computed by solving a differential equation that defines how the probability of survival decreases with increasing time. The survival equation assumes that the probability of occurrence of a fatal event increases as the victim's central temperature decreases. Generally accepted views of the medical consequences of hypothermia and published reports of various accidents provide information useful for defining a "fatality function" that increases exponentially with decreasing central temperature. The particular function suggested in this paper yields a relationship between immersion time for 10% probability of survival and water temperature that agrees very well with Molnar's empirical observations based on World War II data. The method presented in this paper circumvents a serious difficulty with most previous models--that one's ability to survive immersion in cold water is determined almost exclusively by the ability to maintain a high level of shivering metabolism.

  12. Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    NASA commissioned the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) to conduct a thorough review of both the technical and the organizational causes of the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and her crew on February 1, 2003. The accident investigation that followed determined that a large piece of insulating foam from Columbia s external tank (ET) had come off during ascent and struck the leading edge of the left wing, causing critical damage. The damage was undetected during the mission. The CAIB's findings and recommendations were published in 2003 and are available on the web at http://caib.nasa.gov/. NASA responded to the CAIB findings and recommendations with the Space Shuttle Return to Flight Implementation Plan. Significant enhancements were made to NASA's organizational structure, technical rigor, and understanding of the flight environment. The ET was redesigned to reduce foam shedding and eliminate critical debris. In 2005, NASA succeeded in returning the space shuttle to flight. In 2010, the space shuttle will complete its mission of assembling the International Space Station and will be retired to make way for the next generation of human space flight vehicles: the Constellation Program. The Space Shuttle Program recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew to benefit future human exploration, particularly future vehicle design. The program commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT). The SCSIIT was asked to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival for all future human space flight vehicles. To do this, the SCSIIT investigated all elements of crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training, and procedures intended to protect the crew. This report documents the SCSIIT findings, conclusions, and recommendations.

  13. Open water scuba diving accidents at Leicester: five years' experience.

    PubMed Central

    Hart, A J; White, S A; Conboy, P J; Bodiwala, G; Quinton, D

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence, type, outcome, and possible risk factors of diving accidents in each year of a five year period presenting from one dive centre to a large teaching hospital accident and emergency (A&E) department. METHODS: All patients included in this study presented to the A&E department at a local teaching hospital in close proximity to the largest inland diving centre in the UK. Our main outcome measures were: presenting symptoms, administration of recompression treatment, mortality, and postmortem examination report where applicable. RESULTS: Overall, 25 patients experienced a serious open water diving accident at the centre between 1992 and 1996 inclusive. The percentage of survivors (n = 18) with symptoms of decompression sickness receiving recompression treatment was 52%. All surviving patients received medical treatment for at least 24 hours before discharge. The median depth of diving accidents was 24 metres (m) (range 7-36 m). During the study period, 1992-96, the number of accidents increased from one to 10 and the incidence of diving accidents increased from four per 100,000 to 15.4 per 100,000. Over the same time period the number of deaths increased threefold. CONCLUSIONS: The aetiology of the increase in the incidence of accidents is multifactorial. Important risk factors were thought to be: rapid ascent (in 48% of patients), cold water, poor visibility, the number of dives per diver, and the experience of the diver. It is concluded that there needs to be an increased awareness of the management of diving injuries in an A&E department in close proximity to an inland diving centre. PMID:10353047

  14. A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

    PubMed

    Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

    2014-11-01

    The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims

  15. Characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in a series of 98 patients with giant cell arteritis.

    PubMed

    Zenone, Thierry; Puget, Marie

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents at time of diagnosis in patients with giant cell arteritis. Retrospective data were collected from 98 patients at a single hospital with giant cell arteritis (according to the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria) diagnosed between October 1999 and January 2012. Cerebrovascular accident was found at initial presentation in 6 patients (6.1 %, 95 % CIs 2.3-12.9). Most of them had other symptoms of giant cell arteritis when the disease began. Signs reflecting the involvement of vertebro-basilar territory were present in 3 cases. No other case of cerebrovascular accident was described during the follow-up of patient; particularly no case of cerebrovascular accident occurred once corticosteroid therapy for the treatment of giant cell arteritis had been initiated. No differences in the epidemiologic, clinical and laboratory features at the time of diagnosis between patients who had cerebrovascular accidents and the rest of the giant cell arteritis patients were observed. Prognosis was good in our survey. However, there was no case of bilateral vertebral artery occlusion, a condition associated with poor prognosis. The present study confirms that cerebrovascular accidents may be the initial manifestation of giant cell arteritis, an argument in favor of a direct effect of the vasculitis in the development of cerebrovascular accidents rather than a complication of the corticosteroid therapy. The diagnosis of giant cell arteritis should always be considered in an elderly patient with stroke and an unexplained elevation of inflammatory biomarkers.

  16. Predicting survival times for neuroblastoma patients using RNA-seq expression profiles.

    PubMed

    Grimes, Tyler; Walker, Alejandro R; Datta, Susmita; Datta, Somnath

    2018-05-30

    Neuroblastoma is the most common tumor of early childhood and is notorious for its high variability in clinical presentation. Accurate prognosis has remained a challenge for many patients. In this study, expression profiles from RNA-sequencing are used to predict survival times directly. Several models are investigated using various annotation levels of expression profiles (genes, transcripts, and introns), and an ensemble predictor is proposed as a heuristic for combining these different profiles. The use of RNA-seq data is shown to improve accuracy in comparison to using clinical data alone for predicting overall survival times. Furthermore, clinically high-risk patients can be subclassified based on their predicted overall survival times. In this effort, the best performing model was the elastic net using both transcripts and introns together. This model separated patients into two groups with 2-year overall survival rates of 0.40±0.11 (n=22) versus 0.80±0.05 (n=68). The ensemble approach gave similar results, with groups 0.42±0.10 (n=25) versus 0.82±0.05 (n=65). This suggests that the ensemble is able to effectively combine the individual RNA-seq datasets. Using predicted survival times based on RNA-seq data can provide improved prognosis by subclassifying clinically high-risk neuroblastoma patients. This article was reviewed by Subharup Guha and Isabel Nepomuceno.

  17. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

  18. Survival times for canine intranasal sarcomas treated with radiation therapy: 86 cases (1996-2011).

    PubMed

    Sones, Evan; Smith, Annette; Schleis, Stephanie; Brawner, William; Almond, Gregory; Taylor, Kathryn; Haney, Siobhan; Wypij, Jackie; Keyerleber, Michele; Arthur, Jennifer; Hamilton, Terrance; Lawrence, Jessica; Gieger, Tracy; Sellon, Rance; Wright, Zack

    2013-01-01

    Sarcomas comprise approximately one-third of canine intranasal tumors, however few veterinary studies have described survival times of dogs with histologic subtypes of sarcomas separately from other intranasal tumors. One objective of this study was to describe median survival times for dogs treated with radiation therapy for intranasal sarcomas. A second objective was to compare survival times for dogs treated with three radiation therapy protocols: daily-fractionated radiation therapy; Monday, Wednesday, and Friday fractionated radiation therapy; and palliative radiation therapy. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed for dogs that had been treated with radiation therapy for confirmed intranasal sarcoma. A total of 86 dogs met inclusion criteria. Overall median survival time for included dogs was 444 days. Median survival time for dogs with chondrosarcoma (n = 42) was 463 days, fibrosarcoma (n = 12) 379 days, osteosarcoma (n = 6) 624 days, and undifferentiated sarcoma (n = 22) 344 days. Dogs treated with daily-fractionated radiation therapy protocols; Monday, Wednesday and Friday fractionated radiation therapy protocols; and palliative radiation therapy protocols had median survival times of 641, 347, and 305 days, respectively. A significant difference in survival time was found for dogs receiving curative intent radiation therapy vs. palliative radiation therapy (P = 0.032). A significant difference in survival time was also found for dogs receiving daily-fractionated radiation therapy vs. Monday, Wednesday and Friday fractionated radiation therapy (P = 0.0134). Findings from this study support the use of curative intent radiation therapy for dogs with intranasal sarcoma. Future prospective, randomized trials are needed for confirmation of treatment benefits. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound.

  19. DELETERIOUS EFFECTS OF HIGH FAT DIETS ON SURVIVAL TIME OF X-IRRADIATED MICE

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ershoff, B.H.

    1961-02-01

    The effects of multiple sublethal doses of total body x-irradiation were determined on survival time of male mice fed either a purified fat-free ration or a similar diet supplemented with 2, 10, 20, or 30% cottonseed oil, marganine fat, or butter fat. The effects obtnined were dependent on the amount and source of dietary fat. At levels of 2 or 10% of the diet, cottonseed oil and margarine fat increased survival time over that on the fat-free ration. When these fats were fed at higher levels (i.e., 20 or 30% of the diet), however, survival time was decreased below thatmore » obtained at the lower levels of supplementation. In contrast to the results obtained with the cottonseed oil or margarine fat supplements, butter fat at levels of 2 or 10% of the diet did not prolong survival over that on the fat-free ration; nor did it decrease survival time when fed at higher levels in the diet. (auth)« less

  20. Contribution of alcohol in accident related mortality in Belarus: a time series approach

    PubMed Central

    Razvodovsky, Yury Evgeny

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Background: High accidental death rates in the former Soviet republics (FSR) and its profound fluctuation over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. The research evidences emphasize binge drinking pattern as a potentially important contributor to accident mortality crisis in FSR. In line with this evidence we assume that higher level of alcohol consumption in conjunction with binge drinking pattern results in close aggregate-level association between alcohol psychoses and accidental death rates in the former Soviet Slavic republic Belarus. Methods: Trends in alcohol psychoses rate (as a proxy for alcohol consumption) from 1979 to 2007 were analyzed employing a distributed lag analysis in order to asses bivariate relationship between the two time series. Results: According to the Bureau of Forensic Medicine autopsy reports the number of deaths due to accidents and injuries increased by 52.5% (from 62.3 to 95.0 per 100.000 of residents), and fatal alcohol poisoning rate increased by 108.6% (from 12.8 to 26.7 per 100.000 of residents) in Belarus between 1979 and 2007. Alcohol in blood was found in 50.1% victims of deaths from accidents and injuries for the whole period, with the minimum figure 40% in 1986 and maximum 58.2% in 2005. The outcome of distributed lags analysis indicated statistically significant association between the number of alcohol psychoses cases and the number BAC-positive deaths from accidents at zero lag. Conclusion: The outcome of this study supports previous findings suggesting that alcohol and deaths from accidents are closely connected in a culture with prevailing intoxication-oriented drinking pattern, and add to growing body of evidence that a substantial proportion of accidental deaths in Belarus are due to effects of binge drinking. PMID:21502784

  1. Construction industry accidents in Spain.

    PubMed

    Camino López, Miguel A; Ritzel, Dale O; Fontaneda, Ignacio; González Alcantara, Oscar J

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzed industrial accidents that take place on construction sites and their severity. Eighteen variables were studied. We analyzed the influence of each of these with respect to the severity and fatality of the accident. This descriptive analysis was grounded in 1,630,452 accidents, representing the total number of accidents suffered by workers in the construction sector in Spain over the period 1990-2000. It was shown that age, type of contract, time of accident, length of service in the company, company size, day of the week, and the remainder of the variables under analysis influenced the seriousness of the accident. IMPACT ON INJURY PREVENTION: The results obtained show that different training was needed, depending on the severity of accidents, for different age, length of service in the company, organization of work, and time when workers work. The research provides an insight to the likely causes of construction injuries in Spain. As a result of the analysis, industries and governmental agencies in Spain can start to provide appropriate strategies and training to the construction workers.

  2. School accidents to children: time to act.

    PubMed Central

    Maitra, A

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the profile of injuries sustained by children in school accidents and suggest preventive measures. DESIGN: A five month prospective study of children attending an urban accident and emergency (A&E) department. SUBJECTS: 500 children who sustained injuries in school due to a variety of activities. RESULTS: 10 and 12 year old pupils suffered most injuries in school grounds/playgrounds, on concrete, or on grass/soil surfaces due to random activities resulting in striking or being struck by objects/persons, tripping or slipping, and sports (mainly football); 65.5% of these activities were not supervised and 67.4% occurred "out of lessons"; 22% sustained fractures or dislocations, 28.2% needed follow up treatment, and 1.4% were admitted. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries to children in school are a cause for concern. Effective preventive measures should concentrate on (a) specific target areas using schemes based on individual school, and (b) establishing a credible system of monitoring of their effectiveness. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:9248914

  3. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    PubMed

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  4. Fatal accidents in the Icelandic fishing fleet 1980-2005.

    PubMed

    Petursdottir, Gudrun; Hjoervar, Tryggvi; Snorrason, Hilmar

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes how the Icelandic fleet increased from 1980 to 2005, as well as the number of fishermen employed in the various sections of the fleet. All categories of the fleet have increased considerably in tonnage, while the number of fishermen has declined. At the same time the catch per man-year at sea has increased, rendering the Icelandic fisheries among the most efficient in the world in terms of catch and value per manpower. The number of fatalities in the Icelandic fisheries has declined steadily in this period. In absolute numbers these accidents are most common on decked vessels under 45m, but when weighed against man-years, fishermen on open boats are in greatest danger of losing their lives. The most common cause of fatalities is foundering of the vessel, which may cause multiple fatalities, then is man-over-board, followed by drowning in harbour and miscellaneous accidents. The reduction in the number of fatal accidents at sea may have several reasons. Mandatory safety and survival training of all fishermen, improved working conditions at sea, better telecommunications, constant VMS surveillance and a 24hr availability of airborne rescue teams have all helped to reduce fatalities in the Icelandic fishing fleet from 1980 until 2005.

  5. Surviving Tight Times.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neugebauer, Roger

    2002-01-01

    Discusses several strategies recommended by small business experts to help for-profit and non-profit child care centers survive a financial crisis. Strategies include: identifying the source of the problem, monitoring cash flow, reducing or deferring expenditures, expediting regular income and exploring new sources of income, patiently working…

  6. [An analysis of industrial accidents in the working field with a particular emphasis on repeated accidents].

    PubMed

    Wakisaka, I; Yanagihashi, T; Tomari, T; Sato, M

    1990-03-01

    The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  7. Strand V: Education for Survival. First Aid and Survival Education. Health Curriculum Materials Grades 10-12.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Secondary Curriculum Development.

    GRADES OR AGES: Grades 10-12. SUBJECT MATTER: First aid and survival education. ORGANIZATION AND PHYSICAL APPEARANCE: The guide is divided into six sections: transportation of the injured, automobile accidents, conditions resulting from nuclear explosion, chemical warfare, natural catastrophes, and psychological first aid. The publication format…

  8. ADAM: An Accident Diagnostic,Analysis and Management System - Applications to Severe Accident Simulation and Management

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zavisca, M.J.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Esmaili, H.

    2002-07-01

    The Accident Diagnostic, Analysis and Management (ADAM) computer code has been developed as a tool for on-line applications to accident diagnostics, simulation, management and training. ADAM's severe accident simulation capabilities incorporate a balance of mechanistic, phenomenologically based models with simple parametric approaches for elements including (but not limited to) thermal hydraulics; heat transfer; fuel heatup, meltdown, and relocation; fission product release and transport; combustible gas generation and combustion; and core-concrete interaction. The overall model is defined by a relatively coarse spatial nodalization of the reactor coolant and containment systems and is advanced explicitly in time. The result is to enablemore » much faster than real time (i.e., 100 to 1000 times faster than real time on a personal computer) applications to on-line investigations and/or accident management training. Other features of the simulation module include provision for activation of water injection, including the Engineered Safety Features, as well as other mechanisms for the assessment of accident management and recovery strategies and the evaluation of PSA success criteria. The accident diagnostics module of ADAM uses on-line access to selected plant parameters (as measured by plant sensors) to compute the thermodynamic state of the plant, and to predict various margins to safety (e.g., times to pressure vessel saturation and steam generator dryout). Rule-based logic is employed to classify the measured data as belonging to one of a number of likely scenarios based on symptoms, and a number of 'alarms' are generated to signal the state of the reactor and containment. This paper will address the features and limitations of ADAM with particular focus on accident simulation and management. (authors)« less

  9. Presidential Survival in Tough Times.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowen, Raymond C.

    Surviving the position of college president requires the development of a presidential survival kit filled with idiosyncratic items not normally associated with formal educational training. Strength, agility, control, and the ability to improvise are some of the talents required of a college president. In addition, the longevity and success of a…

  10. Timing of chemotherapy and survival in patients with resectable gastric adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Arrington, Amanda K; Nelson, Rebecca; Patel, Supriya S; Luu, Carrie; Ko, Michelle; Garcia-Aguilar, Julio; Kim, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the timing of chemotherapy in gastric cancer by comparing survival outcomes in treatment groups. METHODS: Patients with surgically resected gastric adenocarcinoma from 1988 to 2006 were identified from the Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program. To evaluate the population most likely to receive and/or benefit from adjunct chemotherapy, inclusion criteria consisted of Stage II or III gastric cancer patients > 18 years of age who underwent curative-intent surgical resection. Patients were categorized into three groups according to the receipt of chemotherapy: (1) no chemotherapy; (2) preoperative chemotherapy; or (3) postoperative chemotherapy. Clinical and pathologic characteristics were compared across the different treatment arms. RESULTS: Of 1518 patients with surgically resected gastric cancer, 327 (21.5%) received perioperative chemotherapy. The majority of these 327 patients were male (68%) with a mean age of 61.5 years; and they were significantly younger than non-chemotherapy patients (mean age, 70.7; P < 0.001). Most patients had tumors frequently located in the distal stomach (34.5%). Preoperative chemotherapy was administered to 11.3% of patients (n = 37) and postoperative therapy to 88.7% of patients (n = 290). An overall survival benefit according to timing of chemotherapy was not observed on univariate or multivariate analysis. Similar results were observed with stage-specific survival analyses (5-year overall survival: Stage II, 25% vs 30%, respectively; Stage III, 14% vs 11%, respectively). Therefore, our results do not identify a survival advantage for specific timing of chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer. CONCLUSION: This study supports the implementation of a randomized trial comparing the timing of perioperative therapy in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer. PMID:24392183

  11. Integrated Cox's model for predicting survival time of glioblastoma multiforme.

    PubMed

    Ai, Zhibing; Li, Longti; Fu, Rui; Lu, Jing-Min; He, Jing-Dong; Li, Sen

    2017-04-01

    Glioblastoma multiforme is the most common primary brain tumor and is highly lethal. This study aims to figure out signatures for predicting the survival time of patients with glioblastoma multiforme. Clinical information, messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and single-nucleotide polymorphism array data of patients with glioblastoma multiforme were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Patients were separated into two groups by using 1 year as a cutoff, and a logistic regression model was used to figure out any variables that can predict whether the patient was able to live longer than 1 year. Furthermore, Cox's model was used to find out features that were correlated with the survival time. Finally, a Cox model integrated the significant clinical variables, messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and single-nucleotide polymorphism was built. Although the classification method failed, signatures of clinical features, messenger RNA expression levels, and microRNA expression levels were figured out by using Cox's model. However, no single-nucleotide polymorphisms related to prognosis were found. The selected clinical features were age at initial diagnosis, Karnofsky score, and race, all of which had been suggested to correlate with survival time. Both of the two significant microRNAs, microRNA-221 and microRNA-222, were targeted to p27 Kip1 protein, which implied the important role of p27 Kip1 on the prognosis of glioblastoma multiforme patients. Our results suggested that survival modeling was more suitable than classification to figure out prognostic biomarkers for patients with glioblastoma multiforme. An integrated model containing clinical features, messenger RNA levels, and microRNA expression levels was built, which has the potential to be used in clinics and thus to improve the survival status of glioblastoma multiforme patients.

  12. Helicopter crashes into water: warning time, final position, and other factors affecting survival.

    PubMed

    Brooks, Christopher J; MacDonald, Conor V; Baker, Susan P; Shanahan, Dennis F; Haaland, Wren L

    2014-04-01

    According to 40 yr of data, the fatality rate for a helicopter crash into water is approximately 25%. Does warning time and the final position of the helicopter in the water influence the survival rate? The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database was queried to identify helicopter crashes into water between 1981 and 2011 in the Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii. Fatality rate, amount of warning time prior to the crash, and final position of the helicopter were identified. There were 133 helicopters that crashed into water with 456 crew and passengers. Of these, 119 occupants (26%) did not survive; of those who did survive, 38% were injured. Twelve died after making a successful escape from the helicopter. Crashes with < 15 s warning had a fatality rate of 22%, compared to 12% for 16-60 s warning and 5% for > 1 min. However, more than half of fatalities (57%) came from crashes for which the warning time could not be determined. Lack of warning time and how to survive in the water after the crash should be a topic for study in all marine survival/aircraft ditching courses. Investigators should be trained to provide estimates of warning time when investigating helicopter crashes into water.

  13. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  14. Spectral Analysis of the Effects of Daylight Saving Time on Motor Vehicle Fatal Traffic Accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-04-01

    This report shows that Daylight Saving Time (DST) reduces the number of persons killed in motor vehicle fatal traffic accidents by about one percent. This estimate is based on a spectral (Fourier) analysis of these fatalities which utilizes a filteri...

  15. Measuring agreement of multivariate discrete survival times using a modified weighted kappa coefficient.

    PubMed

    Guo, Ying; Manatunga, Amita K

    2009-03-01

    Assessing agreement is often of interest in clinical studies to evaluate the similarity of measurements produced by different raters or methods on the same subjects. We present a modified weighted kappa coefficient to measure agreement between bivariate discrete survival times. The proposed kappa coefficient accommodates censoring by redistributing the mass of censored observations within the grid where the unobserved events may potentially happen. A generalized modified weighted kappa is proposed for multivariate discrete survival times. We estimate the modified kappa coefficients nonparametrically through a multivariate survival function estimator. The asymptotic properties of the kappa estimators are established and the performance of the estimators are examined through simulation studies of bivariate and trivariate survival times. We illustrate the application of the modified kappa coefficient in the presence of censored observations with data from a prostate cancer study.

  16. Association of Time between Surgery and Adjuvant Therapy with Survival in Oral Cavity Cancer.

    PubMed

    Chen, Michelle M; Harris, Jeremy P; Orosco, Ryan K; Sirjani, Davud; Hara, Wendy; Divi, Vasu

    2018-06-01

    Objective The National Cancer Center Network recommends starting radiation therapy within 6 weeks after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC), but there is limited evidence of the importance of the total time from surgery to completion of radiation therapy (package time). We set out to determine if there was an association between package time and survival in OCSCC and to evaluate the impact of treatment location on outcomes. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods We reviewed the records of patients with OCSCC who completed postoperative radiation therapy at an academic medical center from 2008 to 2016. The primary endpoints were overall survival and recurrence-free survival. Statistical analysis included χ 2 tests and Cox proportional hazards regressions. Results We identified 132 patients with an average package time of 12.6 weeks. On multivariate analysis, package time >11 weeks was independently associated with decreased overall survival (hazard ratio, 6.68; 95% CI, 1.42-31.44) and recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.20-7.18). Patients who received radiation therapy at outside facilities were more likely to have treatment delays (90.2% vs 62.9%, P = .001). Conclusions Prolonged package times are associated with decreased overall and recurrence-free survival among patients with OCSCC. Patients who received radiation therapy at outside facilities are more likely to have prolonged package times.

  17. Occurrence and countermeasures of urban power grid accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Wang; Tao, Zhang

    2018-03-01

    With the advance of technology, the development of network communication and the extensive use of power grids, people can get to know power grid accidents around the world through the network timely. Power grid accidents occur frequently. Large-scale power system blackout and casualty accidents caused by electric shock are also fairly commonplace. All of those accidents have seriously endangered the property and personal safety of the country and people, and the development of society and economy is severely affected by power grid accidents. Through the researches on several typical cases of power grid accidents at home and abroad in recent years and taking these accident cases as the research object, this paper will analyze the three major factors that cause power grid accidents at present. At the same time, combining with various factors and impacts caused by power grid accidents, the paper will put forward corresponding solutions and suggestions to prevent the occurrence of the accident and lower the impact of the accident.

  18. Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

    2009-02-26

    We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is moremore » efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.« less

  19. Predicting survival time for cold exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tikuisis, Peter

    1995-06-01

    The prediction of survival time (ST) for cold exposure is speculative as reliable controlled data of deep hypothermia are unavailable. At best, guidance can be obtained from case histories of accidental exposure. This study describes the development of a mathematical model for the prediction of ST under sedentary conditions in the cold. The model is based on steady-state heat conduction in a single cylinder comprised of a core and two concentric annular shells representing the fat plus skin and the clothing plus still boundary layer, respectively. The ambient condition can be either air or water; the distinction is made by assigning different values of insulation to the still boundary layer. Metabolic heat production ( M) is comprised of resting and shivering components with the latter predicted by temperature signals from the core and skin. Where the cold exposure is too severe for M to balance heat loss, ST is largely determined by the rate of heat loss from the body. Where a balance occurs, ST is governed by the endurance time for shivering. End of survival is marked by the deep core temperature reaching a value of 30° C. The model was calibrated against survival data of cold water (0 to 20° C) immersion and then applied to cold air exposure. A sampling of ST predictions for the nude exposure of an average healthy male in relatively calm air (1 km/h wind speed) are the following: 1.8, 2.5, 4.1, 9.0, and >24 h for -30, -20, -10, 0, and 10° C, respectively. With two layers of loose clothing (average thickness of 1 mm each) in a 5 km/h wind, STs are 4.0, 5.6, 8.6, 15.4, and >24 h for -50, -40, -30, -20, and -10° C. The predicted STs must be weighted against the extrapolative nature of the model. At present, it would be prudent to use the predictions in a relative sense, that is, to compare or rank-order predicted STs for various combinations of ambient conditions and clothing protection.

  20. Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2012-12-20

    Simulations and Monte Carlo methods serve an important role in modern statistical research. They allow for an examination of the performance of statistical procedures in settings in which analytic and mathematical derivations may not be feasible. A key element in any statistical simulation is the existence of an appropriate data-generating process: one must be able to simulate data from a specified statistical model. We describe data-generating processes for the Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariates when event times follow an exponential, Weibull, or Gompertz distribution. We consider three types of time-varying covariates: first, a dichotomous time-varying covariate that can change at most once from untreated to treated (e.g., organ transplant); second, a continuous time-varying covariate such as cumulative exposure at a constant dose to radiation or to a pharmaceutical agent used for a chronic condition; third, a dichotomous time-varying covariate with a subject being able to move repeatedly between treatment states (e.g., current compliance or use of a medication). In each setting, we derive closed-form expressions that allow one to simulate survival times so that survival times are related to a vector of fixed or time-invariant covariates and to a single time-varying covariate. We illustrate the utility of our closed-form expressions for simulating event times by using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power to detect as statistically significant the effect of different types of binary time-varying covariates. This is compared with the statistical power to detect as statistically significant a binary time-invariant covariate. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Surviving collapsed structure entrapment after earthquakes: a "time-to-rescue" analysis.

    PubMed

    Macintyre, Anthony G; Barbera, Joseph A; Smith, Edward R

    2006-01-01

    Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. Commonly, this spurs resource intensive, dangerous, and frustrating attempts to find and extricate live victims. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days beyond the last "save," potentially diverting critical attention and resources away from the pressing needs of non-trapped survivors and the devastated community. This recurring phenomenon is driven by the often-unanswered question "Can anyone still be alive under there?" The maximum survival time in entrapment is an important issue for responders, yet little formal research has been conducted on this issue. Knowing the maximum survival time in entrapment helps responders: (1) decide whether or not they should continue to assign limited resources to search and rescue activities; (2) assess the safety risks versus the benefits; (3) determine when search and rescue activities no longer are indicated; and (4) time and pace the important transition to community recovery efforts. The time period of 1985-2004 was selected for investigation. Medline and Lexis-Nexis databases were searched for earthquake events that occurred within this timeframe. Medical literature articles providing time-torescue data for victims of earthquakes were identified. Lexis-Nexis reports were scanned to select those with time-to-rescue data for victims of earthquakes. Reports from both databases were examined for information that might contribute to prolonged survival of entrapped individuals. A total of 34 different earthquake events met study criteria. Forty-eight medical articles containing time-to-rescue data were identified. Of these, the longest time to rescue was "13-19 days" post-event (secondhand data and the author is not specific). The second longest time to rescue in the medical articles was 8.7 days (209 hours). Twenty-five medical articles report multiple rescues that occurred after two days

  2. [Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing, 1995-2015].

    PubMed

    Li, Y; Wang, J; He, S F; Chen, J; Lu, H Y

    2017-11-10

    Objective: To analyze the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing from 1995 to 2015. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the data of 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases. The data were collected from Chinese HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival proportion, and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related with survival time. Results: Among 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases, 303 (2.4%) died of AIDS related diseases; 9 346 (72.6%) received antiretroviral therapy. The average survival time was 226.5 months (95 %CI : 223.0-230.1), and the survival rates of 1, 5, 10, and 15 years were 98.2%, 96.4%, 93.2%, and 91.9% respectively. Multivariate Cox proportion hazard regression model showed that AIDS phase ( HR =1.439, 95 %CI : 1.041-1.989), heterosexual transmission ( HR =1.646, 95 %CI : 1.184-2.289), being married ( HR =2.186, 95 %CI : 1.510-3.164); older age (≥60 years) at diagnosis ( HR =6.608, 95 %CI : 3.546-12.316); lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at diagnosis (<350 cells/μl) ( HR =8.711, 95 %CI : 5.757-13.181); receiving no antiretroviral therapy (ART) ( HR =18.223, 95 %CI : 13.317-24.937) were the high risk factors influencing the survival of AIDS patients compared with HIV phase, homosexual transmission, being unmarried, younger age (≤30 years), higher CD(4)(+)T cell count (≥350 cell/μl) and receiving ART. Conclusion: The average survival time of HIV/AIDS cases was 226.5 months after diagnoses. Receiving ART, higher CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, HIV phase, younger age, being unmarried and the homosexual transmission were related to the longer survival time of HIV/AIDS cases. Receiving no ART, the lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, AIDS phase, older age, being married and heterosexual transmission indicated higher risk of death due to AIDS.

  3. Fatal accidents and injuries among merchant seafarers worldwide.

    PubMed

    Roberts, S E; Nielsen, D; Kotłowski, A; Jaremin, B

    2014-06-01

    The British merchant fleet has expanded in recent years but it is not known whether this expansion has led to proportionate changes in mortality. To investigate mortality from accidents and injuries in British merchant shipping, to determine whether this has increased in recent years, to compare fatal accident rates across British industries and to review fatal accident rates in merchant shipping worldwide over the last 70 years. Examinations of marine accident investigation files, death registers and death inquiry files, national mortality statistics, worldwide surveys and review methodology. The main outcome measure was the fatal accident rate per 100 000 worker-years. Of 66 deaths in British shipping from 2003 to 2012, 49 were caused by accidents, which largely affected deck ratings. The fatal accident rate in British shipping increased by 4.7% per annum from 2003, although this was not significant (95% confidence interval: -5.1 to 15.6%). During 2003-12, the fatal accident rate in shipping (14.5 per 100 000) was 21 times that in the general British workforce, 4.7 times that in the construction industry and 13 times that in manufacturing. Of 20 merchant fleets worldwide with population-based fatal accident rates, most have shown large reductions over time. The expansion of the British merchant fleet in recent years does not appear to have had a major impact on fatal accidents. Further preventive measures should target fatalities during mooring and towing operations. Internationally, most shipping fleets have over time experienced large decreases in fatal accident rates. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Persistence of airline accidents.

    PubMed

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  5. The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: ecotoxicological update

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eisler, R.; Hoffman, David J.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Burton, G. Allen; Cairns, John

    2003-01-01

    The accident at the Chernobyl, Ukraine, nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986 released large amounts of radiocesium and other radionuclides into the environment, contaminating much of the northern hemisphere, especially Europe. In the vicinity of Chernobyl, at least 30 people died, more than 115,000 others were evacuated, and consumption of milk and other foods was banned because of radiocontamination. At least 14,000 human cancer deaths are expected in Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine as a direct result of Chernobyl. The most sensitive local ecosystems, as judged by survival, were the soil fauna, pine forest communities, and certain populations of rodents. Elsewhere, fallout from Chernobyl significantly contaminated freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and flesh and milk of domestic livestock; in many cases, radionuclide concentrations in biological samples exceeded current radiation protection guidelines. Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Scandinavia were among the most seriously afflicted by Chernobyl fallout, probably because their main food during winter (lichens) is an efficient absorber of airborne particles containing radiocesium. Some reindeer calves contaminated with 137Cs from Chernobyl showed 137Cs-dependent decreases in survival and increases in frequency of chromosomal aberrations. Although radiation levels in the biosphere are declining with time, latent effects of initial exposure--including an increased frequency of thyroid and other cancers--are now measurable. The full effect of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident on natural resources will probably not be known for at least several decades because of gaps in data on long-term genetic and reproductive effects and on radiocesium cycling and toxicokinetics.

  6. Determinants of injuries in passenger vessel accidents.

    PubMed

    Yip, Tsz Leung; Jin, Di; Talley, Wayne K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates determinants of crew and passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Crew and passenger injury equations are estimated for ferry, ocean cruise, and river cruise vessel accidents, utilizing detailed data of individual vessel accidents that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard during the time period 2001-2008. The estimation results provide empirical evidence (for the first time in the literature) that crew injuries are determinants of passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs.

    PubMed

    Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

    2018-01-25

    We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed.

  8. Indiana Emergent Bilingual Student Time to Reclassification: A Survival Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burke, April M.; Morita-Mullaney, Trish; Singh, Malkeet

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we employed a discrete-time survival analysis model to examine Indiana emergent bilingual time to reclassification as fluent English proficient. The data consisted of five years of statewide English language proficiency scores. Indiana has a large and rapidly growing Spanish-speaking emergent bilingual population, and these students…

  9. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    PubMed Central

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  10. The Concept of Accident Proneness: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Froggatt, Peter; Smiley, James A.

    1964-01-01

    The term accident proneness was coined by psychological research workers in 1926. Since then its concept—that certain individuals are always more likely than others to sustain accidents, even though exposed to equal risk—has been questioned but seldom seriously challenged. This article describes much of the work and theory on which this concept is based, details the difficulties encountered in obtaining valid information and the interpretative errors that can arise from the examination of imperfect data, and explains why accident proneness became so readily accepted as an explanation of the facts. A recent hypothesis of accident causation, namely that a person's accident liability may vary from time to time, is outlined, and the respective abilities of this and of accident proneness to accord with data from the more reliable literature are examined. The authors conclude that the hypothesis of individual variation in liability is more realistic and in better agreement with the data than is accident proneness. PMID:14106130

  11. Automated accident detection at intersections.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2004-03-01

    This research aims to provide a timely and accurate accident detection method at intersections, which is : very important for the Traffic Management System(TMS). This research uses acoustic signals to detect : accident at intersections. A system is c...

  12. Factors Impacting Mortality in the Pre-Hospital Period After Road Traffic Accidents in Urban India.

    PubMed

    Chandrasekharan, Ananthnarayan; Nanavati, Aditya J; Prabhakar, Sandhya; Prabhakar, Subramaniam

    2016-07-01

    India currently has the dubious distinction of experiencing the highest number of road traffic accidents in the world. We believe that this study on road traffic accidents may help to identify factors in the pre-hospital setting that may influence mortality rates. A prospective observational study was carried out in a metro area in India over a period of one year. The study included consecutive patients admitted to the trauma service after road traffic accidents. Demographic information, time and place of accident, and details regarding the vehicle and the events leading up to the hospital admission were recorded. Injury severity, management in the hospital, and final outcomes in terms of mortality were noted. The data were analyzed with SPSS software. A total of 773 patients were enrolled. Of these, there were 197 deaths and 576 survivors. The majority of patients were aged 15 - 40 years (67%) and were male (87.84%). More accidents occurred at night (58.2%) than during the day (41.8%). Mortality was not significantly associated with age, sex, or time of accident. City roads (38.9%) saw more accidents than highways (26.13%), but highway accidents were more likely to be fatal. Two-wheeler riders (37.65%) and pedestrians (35.75%) formed the majority of our study population. Mortality was significantly associated with crossing the road on foot (P = 0.004). Pillion riders on two-wheeler vehicles were more likely to experience poor outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 1.9, P = 0.001). Front-seat occupants in four-wheeler vehicles were at an increased risk of not surviving the accident (61.98%; RR=2.56, P = 0.01). Lack of safety gear, such as helmets, seat belts, and airbags, was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.05). Delays in transfers of patients to the hospital and a lack of pre-hospital emergency services was significantly associated with increased mortality (P = 0.000). A lack of respect for the law, weak legislation and law enforcement, disregard for

  13. Association of Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Survival According to Ambulance Response Times After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

    PubMed

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik; Hansen, Steen Møller; Gerds, Thomas A; Kragholm, Kristian; Hansen, Carolina Malta; Karlsson, Lena; Lippert, Freddy K; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2016-12-20

    Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between time from 911 call to emergency medical service arrival (response time) and survival according to whether bystander CPR was provided (yes or no). Reported are 30-day survival chances with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. With increasing response times, adjusted 30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish out-of-hospital cardiac arrest statistics, an additional 233 patients could potentially be saved annually if response time was reduced from 10 to 5 minutes and 119 patients if response time was reduced from 7 (the median

  14. Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs

    PubMed Central

    Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Methods: Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Results: Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. Conclusions: The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed. PMID:29093365

  15. Fatal accidents due to train surfing in Berlin.

    PubMed

    Strauch, H; Wirth, I; Geserick, G

    1998-06-08

    This study was undertaken for the purpose of analysing under the aspect of legal medicine, fatal accidents due to train surfing in the local transport system of Berlin (S-Bahn and underground). The period of investigation was from 1989 through 1995, with 41 train surfing accidents, among them 18 with fatal outcome. Evaluation included those 14 deaths which were forensically autopsied. It was based on autopsy records of Berlin-based university institutes (Humboldt University and Free University) as well as the Brandenburg State Institute of Legal Medicine. Also used were data obtained from the Berlin Transport Police Record. The casualties were aged between 13 and 25 years, most of them between 16 and 20. The male-female gender ratio was 13:1. Accidents occurred above all in the warmer season of the year, most of them between 20:00 h and midnight. More than 50% of all cases were affected by alcohol, but centrally acting medicaments or other addictive drugs were not noticed at all. Most of the fatal accidents occurred to users of the Berlin S-Bahn network. Older train models were the preferred surfing objects due to their structural peculiarities. Collision with close-to-track obstacles and slipping from the train proved to be the major sources of danger. An analysis of injuries revealed polytraumatisation but for one exception, with craniocerebral injuries being the most common and severest events. The longest survival time amounted to 24 h. As the psychosocial causes of high-risk behaviour of adolescents will hardly be controllable, withdrawal of technical, that is structural design possibilities appears to be the most important approach to prevention of accidents in the future. This demand is met by the new series of the Berlin S-Bahn. The model of the old series, suitable for surfing, still accounts for about 10% of the rolling stock and is to be decommissioned in 1998.

  16. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition.

    PubMed

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie-Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.

  17. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition

    PubMed Central

    Sherafati, Faranak; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Afkar, Abolhassan; Gholampoor-Sigaroodi, Ramin; Sirusbakht, Soheil

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the differences in death after receiving emergency services in traffic accidents between urban and rural regions, and decompose factors of the gap in Langerood, Northern Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Langrood, Northern Iran during a 1-year period from 2013 to 2014. The hospital data of traffic crashes were used. Data contained those patients who survived at the scene of accident. Injury severity score, time to admission, age, gender, season of crash and type of collision were variables used in this study. Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to show the amount of inequity. In addition, three regression models were used to show the reason of inequity. Results: Overall 1520 patients with road traffic accidents were admitted to our center during the study period. The mean age of the patients was 35.45 ± 17.9 years, and there were 1158 (76.1 %) men among the victims. Motorbike accidents accounted for 869 (57.1%) injuries and 833 (54.8 %) accidents occurred in rural regions. The in-hospital mortality rate was 60 (3.9%). The results of this study showed that 95% of inequity came from factors used in this study and 2.04% disadvantages were for rural crashes. Severity of crash and time to admission had relationship with death, while the effects of time to admission was higher in rural region and severity of the accident had more effect on mortality in urban regions in comparison with rural ones. Conclusion: The high rate of fatal accidents could be decreased by deleting the gap of access to health care services between urban and rural regions. This study suggested that more efforts of health system are needed to reduce the gap.    PMID:28507999

  18. Rebreather Unit to Prolong Underwater Survival Time.

    PubMed

    House, Carol M; Shaw, Anneliese M; Roiz de Sa, Daniel G

    2015-12-01

    This study investigated whether the timing of activation affects the utility of an emergency underwater rebreather unit (RBU) when submerged in cold water. On two successive occasions, 16 male UK Royal Marines were submerged in stirred water at 12.2°C for up to 78 s. The subjects were lowered (taking 18 s) into the water in a seated position and were instructed to take a large breath in, activate the unit, breath-hold for as long as possible, exhale into the unit, and breathe normally to and from the unit for the remainder of submersion. On one occasion the subjects were instructed to activate the RBU when the water reached chest height (Condition-1) and, on the other, prior to the feet entering the water (Condition-2). Measurements were made of the duration of breath-hold, rebreathing and submersion, exhaled oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations, skin temperature, and heart rate. In 16 of the 32 submersions, the breath-hold was released before the subject became fully submerged and in 8 submersions the subject requested early withdrawal from the water. Mean (SD) breath-hold duration was 14.0 (13.8) s and the duration of rebreathing was 45.9 (21.9) s. The duration of breath-hold once completely submerged was longer in Condition-1 (9.1 s) than Condition-2 (4.1 s). The study indicates the RBU should be activated just before the mouth becomes submerged rather than before entering the water, and that the RBU will prolong underwater stay time, thereby increasing survival prospects. House CM, Shaw AM, Roiz de Sa DG. Rebreather unit to prolong underwater stay time, thereby increasing survival prospects.

  19. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

    PubMed

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-07-22

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

  20. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E.; Welch, David M.; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-01-01

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species. PMID:27500471

  1. Exposure to static magnetic fields and risk of accidents among a cohort of workers from a medical imaging device manufacturing facility.

    PubMed

    Bongers, Suzan; Slottje, Pauline; Portengen, Lützen; Kromhout, Hans

    2016-05-01

    To study the association between occupational MRI-related static magnetic fields (SMF) exposure and the occurrence of accidents. Recent and career SMF exposure was assessed by linking a retrospective job exposure matrix to payroll based job histories, for a cohort of (former) workers of an imaging device manufacturing facility in the Netherlands. Occurrence of accidents was collected through an online questionnaire. Self-reported injuries due to accidents in the past 12 months, and the first (near) traffic accident while commuting to work and from work were analyzed with logistic regression and discrete-time survival analyses, respectively. High recent SMF exposure was associated with an increased risk of accidents leading to injuries [odds ratio (OR) 4.16]. For high recent and career SMF exposure, an increased risk was observed for accidents resulting in physician-treated injuries (OR 5.78 and 2.79, respectively) and an increased lifetime risk of (near) accidents during commute to work (hazard ratios 2.49 and 2.45, respectively), but not from work. We found an association between MRI-related occupational SMF exposure and an increased risk of accidents leading to injury, and for commute-related (near) accidents during the commute from home to work. Further research into health effects of (long-term) SMF exposure is warranted to corroborate our findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Level of neurotic disorders among drivers causing traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Durić, Predrag; Filipović, Danka

    2007-01-01

    Different aspects of driver personality may affect traffic safety. Extended driver reaction time causes deceleration of the reflexes, which is a major cause of traffic accidents. Cornell index was used in 30 drivers responsible for traffic accidents, with the aim to measure their level of neurotic disorder and compare them with results of controls (drivers not responsible for traffic accidents). Reaction time was maesured and compared among subjects with normal results of Cornell test and those with pathological findings. Drivers causing traffic accidents showed significantly higher Cornell index scores than drivers not responsible for traffic accidents. Drivers with pathological results of Cornell index showed a significantly longer reaction time.

  3. 30 years After the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Time for Reflection and Re-evaluation of Current Disaster Preparedness Plans.

    PubMed

    Zablotska, Lydia B

    2016-06-01

    It has been 30 years since the worst accident in the history of the nuclear era occurred at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine close to densely populated urban areas. To date, epidemiological studies reported increased long-term risks of leukemia, cardiovascular diseases, and cataracts among cleanup workers and of thyroid cancer and non-malignant diseases in those exposed as children and adolescents. Mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident in the three most contaminated countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian Federation. Timely and clear communication with affected populations emerged as one of the main lessons in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

  4. Normal accidents: Living with high-risk technologies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Perrow, Ch.

    1984-01-01

    It was a major nuclear accident, the one at Three Mile Island in 1979, that turned Perrow's attention to accidents in general. A specialist in the sociology of organizations, he soon learned that events at TMI were not simply the result of an engineering failure or the result of operator error; rather, they were a consequence of systems failure. What the author learned from his research into the accident at TMI is that there was no coherent theory of accidents in either the engineering or the social science literature, so he set out to create one. This book discusses themore » science of accident research. Since Perrow is an outsider to all of the many technical fields reviewed in the book, ranging from nuclear power to marine transport to DNA research, experts may challenge his sources and point out his errors. Perrow's central thesis is that accidents are inevitable - that is, they are ''normal'' - in technologies that have two system characteristics that he terms ''interactive complexity'' and ''tight coupling''. Using these concepts, Perrow constructs a theory of systems which he believes to be unique in the literature on accidents and the literature on organizations. His theory concentrates upon the properties of systems themselves, rather than on the errors that owners, designers and operators make in running them. He seeks a more basic explanation than operator error; faulty design or equipment; inadequately trained personnel; or the system is too big, under-financed or mismanaged. Nuclear power in the United States may not survive its current economic and regulatory troubles, but discussion continues. Only a small part of the debate concerns plant safety: economic competitiveness, nuclear arms proliferation and nuclear waste disposal are the salient themes.« less

  5. Modeling when and where a secondary accident occurs.

    PubMed

    Wang, Junhua; Liu, Boya; Fu, Ting; Liu, Shuo; Stipancic, Joshua

    2018-01-31

    The occurrence of secondary accidents leads to traffic congestion and road safety issues. Secondary accident prevention has become a major consideration in traffic incident management. This paper investigates the location and time of a potential secondary accident after the occurrence of an initial traffic accident. With accident data and traffic loop data collected over three years from California interstate freeways, a shock wave-based method was introduced to identify secondary accidents. A linear regression model and two machine learning algorithms, including a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), were implemented to explore the distance and time gap between the initial and secondary accidents using inputs of crash severity, violation category, weather condition, tow away, road surface condition, lighting, parties involved, traffic volume, duration, and shock wave speed generated by the primary accident. From the results, the linear regression model was inadequate in describing the effect of most variables and its goodness-of-fit and accuracy in prediction was relatively poor. In the training programs, the BPNN and LSSVM demonstrated adequate goodness-of-fit, though the BPNN was superior with a higher CORR and lower MSE. The BPNN model also outperformed the LSSVM in time prediction, while both failed to provide adequate distance prediction. Therefore, the BPNN model could be used to forecast the time gap between initial and secondary accidents, which could be used by decision makers and incident management agencies to prevent or reduce secondary collisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is associated with prolonged remission duration and survival time in canine lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Wang, S L; Lee, J J; Liao, A T

    2015-07-01

    Myelosuppression is one of the most common side effects of chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to determine whether chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is a positive prognostic indicator for remission and survival time in dogs with lymphoma. Fifty dogs with multicentric lymphoma received CHOP-based (C-cyclophosphamide; H-hydroxydaunorubicin; O-vincristine; P-prednisolone) chemotherapy using conventional dosages. Complete blood counts were recorded to determine the presence or absence of neutropenia after treatment. Toxicity, remission, and survival times were recorded and analysed. Thirteen dogs had chemotherapy-induced neutropenia and 37 had no neutropenia during the study period. No statistical difference was found between the groups for signalment or the presence of historical negative prognostic factors, except for bodyweight (P = 0.02). The median first remission times in the neutropenia and no neutropenia groups were 812 and 219 days, respectively (P <0.01). The median survival times of dogs in the neutropenia and no neutropenia groups were 952 and 282 days, respectively (P <0.01). Dogs with lymphoma that had chemotherapy-induced neutropenia exhibited significantly increased remission and survival times compared with dogs without neutropenia. Chemotherapeutic dosages may be adjusted individually to induce neutropenia without severe adverse effects in order to achieve longer remission and survival times. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Rupture of the aorta following road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom 1992-1999. The results of the co-operative crash injury study.

    PubMed

    Richens, D; Kotidis, K; Neale, M; Oakley, C; Fails, A

    2003-02-01

    The true incidence and survivability of blunt traumatic aortic rupture following road traffic accidents in the UK is unclear. The objective of this study was to determine the extent of blunt traumatic aortic rupture in the UK after road traffic accidents and the conditions under which it occurs. Data for the study was obtained from the Co-operative Crash Injury Study database. Road traffic accidents that happened between 1992 and 1999 and included in the Co-operative Crash Injury Study database were retrospectively investigated. A total of 8285 vehicles carrying 14,435 occupants were involved in 7067 accidents. There were 132 cases of blunt traumatic aortic rupture, of which the scene survival was 9% and the overall mortality was 98%. Twenty-one percent of all fatalities had blunt traumatic aortic rupture (130/613). Twenty-nine percent were due to frontal impacts and 44% were due to side impacts. Twelve percent of the blunt traumatic aortic rupture cases in frontal vehicle impacts were wearing seat belts and had airbag protection and 19% had no restraint mechanism. The Equivalent Test Speed of the accident vehicles, (where equivalent test speed provides an estimate of the vehicle impact severity and not an estimate of the vehicle speed at the time of the accident), ranged from 30 to 110 km/h in frontal impacts and from 15 to 82 km/h in side impacts. Blunt traumatic aortic rupture carries a high mortality and occurred in 21% of car occupant deaths in this sample of road traffic accidents. Impact scenarios varied but were most common from the side. The use of an airbag or seat belt does not eliminate risk. The injury can occur at low severity impacts particularly in side impact. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

  8. Depositional fluxes and residence time of atmospheric radioiodine (131I) from the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Yang, Weifeng; Guo, Laodong

    2012-11-01

    Activities of radioiodine ((131)I) along with (210)Pb and (210)Po in time series precipitation samples were measured to determine the depositional fluxes of (131)I in the Southern United States and its removal rate and residence time in the atmosphere during the Fukushima nuclear accident. Radioiodine released from the Fukushima accident reached the Southern United States within 11 days, giving rise to a concurrent (131)I peak and anomalous (210)Po/(210)Pb ratios in the precipitation samples. The cumulative (131)I depositional flux was 4.6 ± 0.2 Bq m(-2) during the maximum fallout. The removal rate of (131)I out of the atmosphere, derived from a definite (131)I integral model, ranged from 0.03 to 0.14 d(-1) with an average of 0.08 ± 0.02 d(-1), which corresponds to a residence time of (131)I in the atmosphere of 12 ± 3 days, consistent with the resident timescale constrained by the (210)Po/(210)Pb disequilibrium technique. These results support our hypothesis that radioiodine was removed from the atmosphere by precipitation within two weeks. It seemed that regions reachable by (131)I transport within two weeks from Fukushima Japan would receive much more fallout, whereas places outside that distance would be relatively less polluted with radionuclides. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

    PubMed Central

    Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

  10. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

    PubMed

    Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

    2016-01-01

    Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  11. Proportional exponentiated link transformed hazards (ELTH) models for discrete time survival data with application

    PubMed Central

    Joeng, Hee-Koung; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kang, Sangwook

    2015-01-01

    Discrete survival data are routinely encountered in many fields of study including behavior science, economics, epidemiology, medicine, and social science. In this paper, we develop a class of proportional exponentiated link transformed hazards (ELTH) models. We carry out a detailed examination of the role of links in fitting discrete survival data and estimating regression coefficients. Several interesting results are established regarding the choice of links and baseline hazards. We also characterize the conditions for improper survival functions and the conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimates under the proposed ELTH models. An extensive simulation study is conducted to examine the empirical performance of the parameter estimates under the Cox proportional hazards model by treating discrete survival times as continuous survival times, and the model comparison criteria, AIC and BIC, in determining links and baseline hazards. A SEER breast cancer dataset is analyzed in details to further demonstrate the proposed methodology. PMID:25772374

  12. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  13. 46 CFR 126.110 - Inspection after accident.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Inspection after accident. 126.110 Section 126.110... CERTIFICATION General § 126.110 Inspection after accident. (a) The owner or operator of an OSV shall make the vessel available for inspection by a marine inspector— (1) Each time an accident occurs, or a defect is...

  14. Role of Survival Time and Injury Severity in Fatal Pulmonary Fat Embolism.

    PubMed

    Jarmer, Juliane; Ampanozi, Garyfalia; Thali, Michael J; Bolliger, Stephan A

    2017-03-01

    Pulmonary fat embolism (PFE) is frequent in blunt trauma and may occasionally lead to death. A correlation between fracture grade and severity and PFE grade has been described before, but no correlation between PFE and survival time, fat crushing extent, fat crush grade, or number of body regions with fractures could be noted in this small study. To further examine this, we decided to examine the aforementioned points in a far larger study group.Autopsy protocols of 188 nonresuscitated fatalities with blunt trauma and without right heart injury, which underwent whole body dissection, were retrospectively reviewed concerning the presence and the severity of PFE, injuries, survival time, age, sex, and the body mass index.The fracture grade, the fracture severity, and the number of the fractured regions correlated very well with the grade of PFE, but the crushed regions, crush grade, and crush severity did not. We observed a time correlation between survival time and PFE only in the sense that very rapid deaths were often PFE negative. High-grade PFE was observed most often in patients having died less than 6 hours after the incident, and PFE grades of 2 or more were occasionally noted even after 48 hours.

  15. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

    PubMed

    Sagberg, F

    1999-11-01

    About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately

  16. Accident rates for novice glider pilots vs. pilots with experience.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

    2007-12-01

    It is a popular notion in gliding that newly soloed pilots have a low accident rate. The intention of this study was to review the support for such a hypothesis from literature and to explore it using UK accident totals and measures of flying exposure. Log sheets from UK gliding clubs were used to estimate flying exposure for inexperienced glider pilots. This was used along with accident data and annual flight statistics for the period 2004-2006 in order to estimate accident rates that could be compared between the pilot groups. The UK accident rate for glider pilots from 2004-2006 was 1 accident in every 3534 launches and 1590 flying hours. The lowest estimated rate for pilots with up to 1 h of experience was 1 accident every 976 launches and 149 h flown. For pilots with up to 10 h of experience the figures were 1 accident in 1274 launches and 503 h. From 2004-2006 UK glider pilots with 10 h or less experience in command had twice the number of accidents per launch and three times as many accidents per hour flown than average for UK glider pilots. Pilots with only 1 h of experience or less were involved in at least 10 times the number of accidents per hour flown than the UK average and had more than 3.5 times the number of accidents per launch.

  17. New psychoactive substance α-PVP in a traffic accident case.

    PubMed

    Rojek, Sebastian; Kula, Karol; Maciów-Głąb, Martyna; Kłys, Małgorzata

    The problems of new psychoactive substances (NPSs), especially related to drivers, constitute an open research area. In this case report, we present a traffic accident case, in which two passengers of five individuals died instantly, while the other three persons survived the accident with minor injuries only. From the blood samples of the driver and the passengers, α-pyrrolidinovalerophenone (α-PVP), an NPS belonging to the category of cathinone derivatives, was disclosed. Therefore, we established a detailed procedure for analysis of α-PVP in blood samples by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. After careful validation tests of this method, α-PVP concentration in blood samples from the surviving driver and passengers, and from the two deceased, were measured. The concentrations varied from 20 to 650 ng/mL. Access to detailed information originating from the court files and from explanations provided by the driver and eye witnesses revealed extremely valuable illustrative details addressing the symptoms and pharmacological effects of α-PVP on the human organism, thus contributing to enriching the body of knowledge of α-PVP abuse.

  18. Survival time and effect of selected predictor variables on survival in owned pet cats seropositive for feline immunodeficiency and leukemia virus attending a referral clinic in northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Spada, Eva; Perego, Roberta; Sgamma, Elena Assunta; Proverbio, Daniela

    2018-02-01

    Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) are among the most important feline infectious diseases worldwide. This retrospective study investigated survival times and effects of selected predictor factors on survival time in a population of owned pet cats in Northern Italy testing positive for the presence of FIV antibodies and FeLV antigen. One hundred and three retrovirus-seropositive cats, 53 FIV-seropositive cats, 40 FeLV-seropositive cats, and 10 FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were included in the study. A population of 103 retrovirus-seronegative age and sex-matched cats was selected. Survival time was calculated and compared between retrovirus-seronegative, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to study the effect of selected predictor factors (male gender, peripheral blood cytopenia as reduced red blood cells - RBC- count, leukopenia, neutropenia and lymphopenia, hypercreatininemia and reduced albumin to globulin ratio) on survival time in retrovirus-seropositive populations. Median survival times for seronegative cats, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were 3960, 2040, 714 and 77days, respectively. Compared to retrovirus-seronegative cats median survival time was significantly lower (P<0.000) in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats. Median survival time in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats was also significant lower (P<0.000) when compared to FIV-seropositive cats. Hazard ratio of death in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats being respectively 3.4 and 7.4 times higher, in comparison to seronegative cats and 2.3 and 4.8 times higher in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats as compared to FIV-seropositive cats. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed that FIV and FeLV-seropositive cats with reduced RBC counts at time of diagnosis of seropositivity had significantly shorter survival times when compared to FIV and Fe

  19. A Multivariate Model for the Meta-Analysis of Study Level Survival Data at Multiple Times

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Dan; Rollins, Katie; Coughlin, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    Motivated by our meta-analytic dataset involving survival rates after treatment for critical leg ischemia, we develop and apply a new multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times. Our data set involves 50 studies that provide mortality rates at up to seven time points, which we model simultaneously, and…

  20. The impact of various work schedules on sleep complaints and minor accidents during work or leisure time: evidence from a national survey.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Hsiao-Yean; Tsai, Pei-Shan

    2013-03-01

    To explore the prevalence of insomnia symptoms and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in different work schedules and the impact of shift schedules on the risk of minor accidents during work or leisure time. Using the data from Taiwan Social Development Trend Survey in 2005 (n = 18,794), insomnia symptoms, EDS, and minor accidents were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression model. The evening-to-night group had significantly higher prevalence rates of insomnia symptoms. Higher prevalence rate of EDS was presented in both day-to-evening and evening-to-night groups. Adjusting for confounders, the day-to-evening shift had a higher odds ratio of minor accidents as compared with the fixed daytime workers. Extended-shift workers tend to experience insomnia symptoms and EDS and have an increased likelihood of minor accidents.

  1. Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

    PubMed Central

    Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

    2018-01-01

    In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

  2. Association of iatrogenic hypothyroidism with azotemia and reduced survival time in cats treated for hyperthyroidism.

    PubMed

    Williams, T L; Elliott, J; Syme, H M

    2010-01-01

    Iatrogenic hypothyroidism can occur after treatment of hyperthyroidism, and is correlated with a reduced glomerular filtration rate in humans and dogs. Cats with iatrogenic hypothyroidism after treatment for hyperthyroidism will have a greater incidence of azotemia than euthyroid cats. Eighty client owned cats with hyperthyroidism. Two retrospective studies. (1) Longitudinal study of 12 hyperthyroid cats treated with radioiodine (documented as euthyroid after treatment), to assess changes in plasma thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration over a 6-month follow-up period, (2) Cross-sectional study of 75 hyperthyroid cats (documented as euthyroid) 6 months after commencement of treatment for hyperthyroidism to identify the relationship between thyroid status and the development of azotemia. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to identify relationships between thyroid and renal status and survival. Plasma TSH concentrations were not suppressed in 7 of 8 cats with hypothyroidism 3 months after radioiodine treatment. The proportion of cats with azotemia was significantly (P= .028) greater in the hypothyroid (16 of 28) than the euthyroid group (14 of 47). Twenty-eight of 41 cats (68%) with plasma TT4 concentration below the laboratory reference range had an increased plasma TSH concentration. Hypothyroid cats that developed azotemia within the follow-up period had significantly (P= .018) shorter survival times (median survival time 456 days, range 231-1589 days) than those that remained nonazotemic (median survival time 905 days, range 316-1869 days). Iatrogenic hypothyroidism appears to contribute to the development of azotemia after treatment of hyperthyroidism, and reduced survival time in azotemic cats. Copyright © 2010 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  3. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  4. Burial duration, depth and air pocket explain avalanche survival patterns in Austria and Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Procter, Emily; Strapazzon, Giacomo; Dal Cappello, Tomas; Zweifel, Benjamin; Würtele, Andreas; Renner, Andreas; Falk, Markus; Brugger, Hermann

    2016-08-01

    To calculate the first Austrian avalanche survival curve and update a Swiss survival curve to explore survival patterns in the Alps. Avalanche accidents occurring between 2005/06 and 2012/13 in Austria and Switzerland were collected. Completely buried victims (i.e. burial of the head and chest) in open terrain with known outcome (survived or not survived) were included in the analysis. Extrication and survival curves were calculated using the Turnbull algorithm, as in previous studies. 633 of the 796 completely buried victims were included (Austria n=333, Switzerland n=300). Overall survival was 56% (Austria 59%; Switzerland 52%; p=0.065). Time to extrication was shorter in Austria for victims buried ≤60min (p<0.001). The survival curves were similar and showed a rapid initial drop in survival probability and a second drop to 25-28% survival probability after burial duration of ca. 35min, where an inflection point exists and the curve levels off. In a logistic regression analysis, both duration of burial and burial depth had an independent effect on survival. Victims with an air pocket were more likely to survive, especially if buried >15min. The survival curves resembled those previously published and support the idea that underlying survival patterns are reproducible. The results are in accordance with current recommendations for management of avalanche victims and serve as a reminder that expedient companion rescue within a few minutes is critical for survival. An air pocket was shown to be a positive prognostic factor for survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Primary school accident reporting in one education authority.

    PubMed

    Latif, A H A; Williams, W R; Sibert, J

    2002-02-01

    Studies have shown a correlation between increased accident rates and levels of deprivation in the community. School accident reporting is one area where an association might be expected. To investigate differences in primary school accident rates in deprived and more affluent wards, in an area managed by one education authority. Statistical analysis of accident form returns for 100 primary schools in one education authority in Wales over a two year period, in conjunction with visits to over one third of school sites. Accident report rates from schools in deprived wards were three times higher than those from schools in more affluent wards. School visits showed that this discrepancy was attributable primarily to differences in reporting procedures. One third of schools did not report accidents and approximately half did not keep records of minor accidents. The association between school accident report rates and deprivation in the community is complex. School accident data from local education authorities may be unreliable for most purposes of collection.

  6. [Implementation of safety devices: biological accident prevention].

    PubMed

    Catalán Gómez, M Teresa; Sol Vidiella, Josep; Castellà Castellà, Manel; Castells Bo, Carolina; Losada Pla, Nuria; Espuny, Javier Lluís

    2010-04-01

    Accidental exposures to blood and biological material were the most frequent and potentially serious accidents in healthcare workers, reported in the Prevention of Occupational Risks Unit within 2002. Evaluate the biological percutaneous accidents decrease after a progressive introduction of safety devices. Biological accidents produced between 2.002 and 2.006 were analyzed and reported by the injured healthcare workers to the Level 2b Hospital Prevention of Occupational Risk Unit with 238 beds and 750 employees. The key of the study was the safety devices (peripheral i.v. catheter, needleless i.v. access device and capillary blood collection lancet). Within 2002, 54 percutaneous biological accidents were registered and 19 in 2006, that represents a 64.8% decreased. There has been no safety devices accident reported involving these material. Accidents registered during the implantation period occurred because safety devices were not used at that time. Safety devices have proven to be effective in reducing needle stick percutaneous accidents, so that they are a good choice in the primary prevention of biological accidents contact.

  7. Analysis of fatal accidents with tractors in the Centre of Portugal: Ten years analysis.

    PubMed

    Antunes, Soraia M; Cordeiro, Cristina; Teixeira, Helena M

    2018-06-01

    Tractors have been described as one of the deadliest farming implements concerning agricultural activity. In Portugal, the scientific investigations about this problem are practically non-existent, with only statistical studies performed by entities related to road traffic safety, not in accordance to the study now performed, pinpointing the possibility of an underreporting of these accidents. This work aims to characterize the fatal tractor accidents in Portugal, autopsied at the Forensic Pathology Department of the Centre Branch of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences of Portugal, analysing several variables: gender, age, occupation, survival time, the victim position in the tractor, cause of death, toxicological and histological exams, year/month/day of the week, type of agricultural machine, existence of rollover protective structures (ROPS), type of accident, ground conditions, circumstantial information and geographic distribution of the accidents. All the autopsies between 2005 and 2014 were analysed. The victim profile corresponded to a man (89.5%), between 61 and 70 years old (33.3%), retired (43.9%), being the tractor driver (45.6%). In most of the cases, death occurred in less than 24h after the accident. These fatalities arose mainly in May and October. Rollover in sloping land was the most common type of accident, and cranioencephalic, thoracic and abdominal traumatic injuries were the main cause of death. In 16.2% of the cases, blood alcohol concentration was above the lower limit established in our road traffic law (<0.5g/L). There was lack information about the use of ROPS (95.9%), and even when existent, the protections were not used or were incorrectly used. This is the first national study involving the description of the forensic achievements in each autopsy related to tractor accidents, and the corresponding circumstances that contributed to the death. Many barriers remain about this matter, but the Portuguese

  8. Cirrus Airframe Parachute System and Odds of a Fatal Accident in Cirrus Aircraft Crashes.

    PubMed

    Alaziz, Mustafa; Stolfi, Adrienne; Olson, Dean M

    2017-06-01

    General aviation (GA) accidents have continued to demonstrate high fatality rates. Recently, ballistic parachute recovery systems (BPRS) have been introduced as a safety feature in some GA aircraft. This study evaluates the effectiveness and associated factors of the Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) at reducing the odds of a fatal accident in Cirrus aircraft crashes. Publicly available Cirrus aircraft crash reports were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database for the period of January 1, 2001-December 31, 2016. Accident metrics were evaluated through univariate and multivariate analyses regarding odds of a fatal accident and use of the parachute system. Included in the study were 268 accidents. For CAPS nondeployed accidents, 82 of 211 (38.9%) were fatal as compared to 8 of 57 (14.0%) for CAPS deployed accidents. After controlling for all other factors, the adjusted odds ratio for a fatal accident when CAPS was not deployed was 13.1. The substantial increased odds of a fatal accident when CAPS was not deployed demonstrated the effectiveness of CAPS at providing protection of occupants during an accident. Injuries were shifted from fatal to serious or minor with the use of CAPS and postcrash fires were significantly reduced. These results suggest that BPRS could play a significant role in the next major advance in improving GA accident survival.Alaziz M, Stolfi A, Olson DM. Cirrus Airframe Parachute System and odds of a fatal accident in Cirrus aircraft crashes. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(6):556-564.

  9. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    PubMed

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Self-Evaluative Appraisals of Coping Capability and Posttraumatic Distress following Motor Vehicle Accidents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benight, Charles C.; Cieslak, Roman; Molton, Ivan R.; Johnson, Lesley E.

    2008-01-01

    This study tested the importance of coping self-efficacy (CSE) perceptions and change in perceptions of CSE for recovery from motor vehicle accident (MVA) trauma. Data were collected 7 days following the accident (Time 1; n = 163), 1 month after the accident (Time 2; n = 91), and 3 months after the accident (Time 3; n = 70). Early changes in CSE…

  11. The time dependent association of adrenaline administration and survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    PubMed

    Ewy, Gordon A; Bobrow, Bentley J; Chikani, Vatsal; Sanders, Arthur B; Otto, Charles W; Spaite, Daniel W; Kern, Karl B

    2015-11-01

    Recommended for decades, the therapeutic value of adrenaline (epinephrine) in the resuscitation of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is controversial. To investigate the possible time-dependent outcomes associated with adrenaline administration by Emergency Medical Services personnel (EMS). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from a near statewide cardiac resuscitation database between 1 January 2005 and 30 November 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of the time interval between EMS dispatch and the initial dose of adrenaline on survival. The primary endpoints were survival to hospital discharge and favourable neurologic outcome. Data from 3469 patients with witnessed OHCA were analyzed. Their mean age was 66.3 years and 69% were male. An initially shockable rhythm was present in 41.8% of patients. Based on a multivariable logistic regression model with initial adrenaline administration time interval (AATI) from EMS dispatch as the covariate, survival was greatest when adrenaline was administered very early but decreased rapidly with increasing (AATI); odds ratio 0.94 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.92-0.97). The AATI had no significant effect on good neurological outcome (OR=0.96, 95% CI=0.90-1.02). In patients with OHCA, survival to hospital discharge was greater in those treated early with adrenaline by EMS especially in the subset of patients with a shockable rhythm. However survival rapidly decreased with increasing adrenaline administration time intervals (AATI). Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Physician flight accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1966-09-01

    An analysis of physician flight accidents during the period 1964-1965 is presented. More than thirty physicians sustained fatal injuries while piloting light aircraft: a fatality record four times the ratio of physician pilots in the general aviation...

  13. Restricted mean survival time: an alternative to the hazard ratio for the design and analysis of randomized trials with a time-to-event outcome

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Designs and analyses of clinical trials with a time-to-event outcome almost invariably rely on the hazard ratio to estimate the treatment effect and implicitly, therefore, on the proportional hazards assumption. However, the results of some recent trials indicate that there is no guarantee that the assumption will hold. Here, we describe the use of the restricted mean survival time as a possible alternative tool in the design and analysis of these trials. Methods The restricted mean is a measure of average survival from time 0 to a specified time point, and may be estimated as the area under the survival curve up to that point. We consider the design of such trials according to a wide range of possible survival distributions in the control and research arm(s). The distributions are conveniently defined as piecewise exponential distributions and can be specified through piecewise constant hazards and time-fixed or time-dependent hazard ratios. Such designs can embody proportional or non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect. Results We demonstrate the use of restricted mean survival time and a test of the difference in restricted means as an alternative measure of treatment effect. We support the approach through the results of simulation studies and in real examples from several cancer trials. We illustrate the required sample size under proportional and non-proportional hazards, also the significance level and power of the proposed test. Values are compared with those from the standard approach which utilizes the logrank test. Conclusions We conclude that the hazard ratio cannot be recommended as a general measure of the treatment effect in a randomized controlled trial, nor is it always appropriate when designing a trial. Restricted mean survival time may provide a practical way forward and deserves greater attention. PMID:24314264

  14. Survival time of dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy with or without adjuvant chemotherapy: 208 cases (2001-2012).

    PubMed

    Wendelburg, Kristin M; Price, Lori Lyn; Burgess, Kristine E; Lyons, Jeremiah A; Lew, Felicia H; Berg, John

    2015-08-15

    To determine survival time for dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma treated with splenectomy alone, identify potential prognostic factors, and evaluate the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy. Retrospective case series. 208 dogs. Medical records were reviewed, long-term follow-up information was obtained, and survival data were analyzed statistically. 154 dogs were treated with surgery alone, and 54 were treated with surgery and chemotherapy. Twenty-eight dogs received conventional chemotherapy, 13 received cyclophosphamide-based metronomic chemotherapy, and 13 received both conventional and metronomic chemotherapy. Median survival time of dogs treated with splenectomy alone was 1.6 months. Clinical stage was the only prognostic factor significantly associated with survival time. When the entire follow-up period was considered, there was no significant difference in survival time between dogs treated with surgery alone and dogs treated with surgery and chemotherapy. However, during the first 4 months of follow-up, after adjusting for the effects of clinical stage, survival time was significantly prolonged among dogs receiving any type of chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 0.6) and among dogs receiving both conventional and metronomic chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 0.4). Clinical stage was strongly associated with prognosis for dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma. Chemotherapy was effective in prolonging survival time during the early portion of the follow-up period. Combinations of doxorubicin-based conventional protocols and cyclophosphamide-based metronomic protocols appeared to be more effective than either type of chemotherapy alone, but prolongations in survival time resulting from current protocols were modest.

  15. Racial Disparities in Clinical Presentation and Survival Times Among Young-Onset Colorectal Adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Arshad, Hafiz Muhammad Sharjeel; Kabir, Christopher; Tetangco, Eula; Shah, Natahsa; Raddawi, Hareth

    2017-09-01

    Recently published data indicate increasing incidence of colorectal adenocarcinoma (CRC) in young-onset (<50 years) patients. This study examines racial disparities in presentation and survival times among non-Hispanic Blacks (NHB) and Hispanics compared with non-Hispanic Whites (NHW). A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted from 2004 through 2014 using 96 patient medical charts with a diagnosis of young-onset CRC. Age, gender, primary site, and histological stage at the time of diagnosis were assessed for survival probabilities by racial group over a minimum follow-up period of 5 years. Among subjects with CRC diagnosis before 50 years of age, the majority of subjects were between 40 and 50 years, with CRC presentation occurring among this age group for 51 (79.7%) of NHW, 18 (81.8%) of NHB, and 5 (50.0%) of Hispanics. The majority of all patients presented with advanced stages of CRC (31.3% with stage III and 27.1% with stage IV). NHB exhibited statistically significantly worse survival compared to NHW (adjusted hazard ratio for death = 2.09; 95% confidence interval 1.14-3.84; P = 0.02). A possible trend of worse survival was identified for Hispanics compared to NHW, but this group was low in numbers and results were not statistically significant. Disparities between racial groups among young-onset CRC cases were identified in overall survival and reflect growing concern in rising incidence and differentiated care management.

  16. Aging, Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), and high potential testing of damaged cables

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vigil, R.A.; Jacobus, M.J.

    1994-04-01

    Experiments were conducted to assess the effects of high potential testing of cables and to assess the survivability of aged and damaged cables under Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) conditions. High potential testing at 240 Vdc/mil on undamaged cables suggested that no damage was incurred on the selected virgin cables. During aging and LOCA testing, Okonite ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) cables with a bonded jacket experienced unexpected failures. The failures appear to be primarily related to the level of thermal aging and the presence of a bonded jacket that ages more rapidly than the insulation. For Brand Rex crosslinked polyolefin (XLPO) cables,more » the results suggest that 7 mils of insulation remaining should give the cables a high probability of surviving accident exposure following aging. The voltage necessary to detect when 7 mils of insulation remain on unaged Brand Rex cables is approximately 35 kVdc. This voltage level would almost certainly be unacceptable to a utility for use as a damage assessment tool. However, additional tests indicated that a 35 kvdc voltage application would not damage virgin Brand Rex cables when tested in water. Although two damaged Rockbestos silicone rubber cables also failed during the accident test, no correlation between failures and level of damage was apparent.« less

  17. Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

    2012-04-01

    Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

  18. A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-02-28

    Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

    2016-02-01

    Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Palliative Sedation in Advanced Cancer Patients: Does it Shorten Survival Time? - A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Barathi, B; Chandra, Prabha S

    2013-01-01

    Background: Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. Objectives: This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Materials and Methods: Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Results: Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST) was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. Conclusion: This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review. PMID:23766594

  1. Palliative Sedation in Advanced Cancer Patients: Does it Shorten Survival Time? - A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Barathi, B; Chandra, Prabha S

    2013-01-01

    Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST) was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  2. Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

    PubMed

    Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-05-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

  3. Survivable architectures for time and wavelength division multiplexed passive optical networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Elaine

    2014-08-01

    The increased network reach and customer base of next-generation time and wavelength division multiplexed PON (TWDM-PONs) have necessitated rapid fault detection and subsequent restoration of services to its users. However, direct application of existing solutions for conventional PONs to TWDM-PONs is unsuitable as these schemes rely on the loss of signal (LOS) of upstream transmissions to trigger protection switching. As TWDM-PONs are required to potentially use sleep/doze mode optical network units (ONU), the loss of upstream transmission from a sleeping or dozing ONU could erroneously trigger protection switching. Further, TWDM-PONs require its monitoring modules for fiber/device fault detection to be more sensitive than those typically deployed in conventional PONs. To address the above issues, three survivable architectures that are compliant with TWDM-PON specifications are presented in this work. These architectures combine rapid detection and protection switching against multipoint failure, and most importantly do not rely on upstream transmissions for LOS activation. Survivability analyses as well as evaluations of the additional costs incurred to achieve survivability are performed and compared to the unprotected TWDM-PON. Network parameters that impact the maximum achievable network reach, maximum split ratio, connection availability, fault impact, and the incremental reliability costs for each proposed survivable architecture are highlighted.

  4. Primary school accident reporting in one education authority

    PubMed Central

    Latif, A; Williams, W; Sibert, J

    2002-01-01

    Background: Studies have shown a correlation between increased accident rates and levels of deprivation in the community. School accident reporting is one area where an association might be expected. Aims: To investigate differences in primary school accident rates in deprived and more affluent wards, in an area managed by one education authority. Methods: Statistical analysis of accident form returns for 100 primary schools in one education authority in Wales over a two year period, in conjunction with visits to over one third of school sites. Results: Accident report rates from schools in deprived wards were three times higher than those from schools in more affluent wards. School visits showed that this discrepancy was attributable primarily to differences in reporting procedures. One third of schools did not report accidents and approximately half did not keep records of minor accidents. Conclusions: The association between school accident report rates and deprivation in the community is complex. School accident data from local education authorities may be unreliable for most purposes of collection. PMID:11827900

  5. Survival Times of Meter-Sized Rock Boulders on the Surface of Airless Bodies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-01-01

    This study considers the survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surfaces of several airless bodies. As the starting point, we employ estimates of the survival times of such boulders on the surface of the Moon by[1], then discuss the role of destruction due to day-night temperature cycling, consider the meteorite bombardment environment on the considered bodies in terms of projectile flux and velocities and finally estimate the survival times. Survival times of meter-sized rocks on lunar surface: The survival times of hand specimen-sized rocks exposed to the lunar surface environment were estimated based on experiments modeling the destruction of rocks by meteorite impacts, combined with measurements of the lunar surface meteorite flux, (e.g.,[2]). For estimations of the survival times of meter-sized lunar boulders, [1] suggested a different approach based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age. It was found that for a few million years, only a small fraction of the boulders ejected by cratering process are destroyed, for several tens of million years approx.50% are destroyed, and for 200-300 Ma, 90 to 99% are destroyed. Following [2] and other works, [1] considered that the rocks are mostly destroyed by meteorite impacts. Destruction of rocks by thermal-stress. However, high diurnal temperature variations on the surface of the Moon and other airless bodies imply that thermal stresses may also be a cause of surface rock destruction. Delbo et al. [3] interpreted the observed presence of fine debris on the surface of small asteroids as due to thermal surface cycling. They stated that because of the very low gravity on the surface of these bodies, ejecta from meteorite impacts should leave the body, so formation there of fine debris has to be due to thermal cycling. Based on experiments on heating-cooling of cm-scale pieces of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites and theoretical modeling of

  6. Sleepy driver near-misses may predict accident risks.

    PubMed

    Powell, Nelson B; Schechtman, Kenneth B; Riley, Robert W; Guilleminault, Christian; Chiang, Rayleigh Ping-ying; Weaver, Edward M

    2007-03-01

    To quantify the prevalence of self-reported near-miss sleepy driving accidents and their association with self-reported actual driving accidents. A prospective cross-sectional internet-linked survey on driving behaviors. Dateline NBC News website. Results are given on 35,217 (88% of sample) individuals with a mean age of 37.2 +/- 13 years, 54.8% women, and 87% white. The risk of at least one accident increased monotonically from 23.2% if there were no near-miss sleepy accidents to 44.5% if there were > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). After covariate adjustments, subjects who reported at least one near-miss sleepy accident were 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.16) times as likely to have reported at least one actual accident as subjects reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents (P < 0.0001). The odds of reporting at least one actual accident in those reporting > or = 4 near-miss sleepy accidents as compared to those reporting no near-miss sleepy accidents was 1.87 (95% CI, 1.64 to 2.14). Furthermore, after adjustments, the summary Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score had an independent association with having a near-miss or actual accident. An increase of 1 unit of ESS was associated with a covariate adjusted 4.4% increase of having at least one accident (P < 0.0001). A statistically significant dose-response was seen between the numbers of self-reported sleepy near-miss accidents and an actual accident. These findings suggest that sleepy near-misses may be dangerous precursors to an actual accident.

  7. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    PubMed

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Supplemental ascorbate in the supportive treatment of cancer: Reevaluation of prolongation of survival times in terminal human cancer*

    PubMed Central

    Cameron, Ewan; Pauling, Linus

    1978-01-01

    A study has been made of the survival times of 100 terminal cancer patients who were given supplemental ascorbate, usually 10 g/day, as part of their routine management and 1000 matched controls, similar patients who had received the same treatment except for the ascorbate. The two sets of patients were in part the same as those used in our earlier study [Cameron, E. & Pauling, L. (1976) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 73, 3685-3689]. Tests confirm that the ascorbate-treated patients and the matched controls are representative subpopulations of the same population of “untreatable” patients. Survival times were measured not only from the date of “untreatability” but also from the precisely known date of first hospital attendance for the cancer that eventually reached the terminal stage. The ascorbate-treated patients were found to have a mean survival time about 300 days greater than that of the controls. Survival times greater than 1 yr after the date of untreatability were observed for 22% of the ascorbate-treated patients and for 0.4% of the controls. The mean survival time of these 22 ascorbate-treated patients is 2.4 yr after reaching the apparently terminal stage; 8 of the ascorbate-treated patients are still alive, with a mean survival time after untreatability of 3.5 yr. PMID:279931

  9. Association of the Timing of Pregnancy With Survival in Women With Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Iqbal, Javaid; Amir, Eitan; Rochon, Paula A.; Giannakeas, Vasily; Sun, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Importance Increasing numbers of women experience pregnancy around the time of, or after, a diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding the effect of pregnancy on survival in women with breast cancer will help in the counseling and treatment of these women. Objective To compare the overall survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer during pregnancy or in the postpartum period with that of women who had breast cancer but did not become pregnant. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based, retrospective cohort study linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, comprising 7553 women aged 20 to 45 years at the time of diagnosis with invasive breast cancer, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. Exposures Any pregnancy in the period from 5 years before, until 5 years after, the index date of the diagnosis of breast cancer. Women were classified into the following 4 exposure groups: no pregnancy (the referent), pregnancy before breast cancer, pregnancy-associated breast cancer, and pregnancy following breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures Five-year actuarial survival rates for all exposure groups, age-adjusted and multivariable hazard ratios [HRs] of pregnancy for overall survival for all exposure groups, and time-dependent hazard ratios for women with pregnancy following breast cancer. Results Among the 7553 women in the study (mean age at diagnosis, 39.1 years; median, 40 years; range, 20-44 years) the 5-year actuarial survival rate was 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy, 85.3% (95% CI, 82.8%-87.8%) for women with pregnancy before breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.85-1.27; P = .73), and 82.1% (95% CI, 78.3%-85.9%) for women with pregnancy-associated breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91-1.53; P = .20). The 5-year actuarial survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI, 94.1%-99.3%) for women who had pregnancy 6 months or more after diagnosis of breast cancer, vs 87

  10. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    PubMed

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  11. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  12. Crashworthiness : an illustrated commentary on occupant survival in general aviation accidents.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1983-04-01

    This report is an illustrated commentary on crash survival in general aviation aircraft. Photographs, drawings, and discussion present some basic concepts of crash forces; mechanisms of injury to occupants; and the roles of shoulder harnesses, lapbel...

  13. Severe Accident Scoping Simulations of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts for BWRs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Robb, Kevin R.

    2015-08-01

    Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are fuels and/or cladding that, in comparison with the standard uranium dioxide Zircaloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations [1]. It is important to note that the currently used uranium dioxide Zircaloy fuel system tolerates design basis accidents (and anticipated operational occurrences and normal operation) as prescribed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Previously, preliminary simulations of the plant response have been performed under a range of accident scenarios using various ATF cladding concepts and fully ceramicmore » microencapsulated fuel. Design basis loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO) severe accidents were analyzed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for boiling water reactors (BWRs) [2]. Researchers have investigated the effects of thermal conductivity on design basis accidents [3], investigated silicon carbide (SiC) cladding [4], as well as the effects of ATF concepts on the late stage accident progression [5]. These preliminary analyses were performed to provide initial insight into the possible improvements that ATF concepts could provide and to identify issues with respect to modeling ATF concepts. More recently, preliminary analyses for a range of ATF concepts have been evaluated internationally for LOCA and severe accident scenarios for the Chinese CPR1000 [6] and the South Korean OPR-1000 [7] pressurized water reactors (PWRs). In addition to these scoping studies, a common methodology and set of performance metrics were developed to compare and support prioritizing ATF concepts [8]. A proposed ATF concept is based on iron-chromium-aluminum alloys (FeCrAl) [9]. With respect to enhancing accident tolerance, FeCrAl alloys have substantially slower oxidation kinetics compared to the zirconium alloys typically employed. During a severe accident, Fe

  14. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    PubMed

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    PubMed

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  16. Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

    PubMed

    Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

    2010-11-15

    The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Factors contributing to young moped rider accidents in Denmark.

    PubMed

    Møller, Mette; Haustein, Sonja

    2016-02-01

    Young road users still constitute a high-risk group with regard to road traffic accidents. The crash rate of a moped is four times greater than that of a motorcycle, and the likelihood of being injured in a road traffic accident is 10-20 times higher among moped riders compared to car drivers. Nevertheless, research on the behaviour and accident involvement of young moped riders remains sparse. Based on analysis of 128 accident protocols, the purpose of this study was to increase knowledge about moped accidents. The study was performed in Denmark involving riders aged 16 or 17. A distinction was made between accident factors related to (1) the road and its surroundings, (2) the vehicle, and (3) the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. Thirteen accident factors were identified with the majority concerning the reported behaviour and condition of the road user. The average number of accident factors assigned per accident was 2.7. Riding speed was assigned in 45% of the accidents which made it the most frequently assigned factor on the part of the moped rider followed by attention errors (42%), a tuned up moped (29%) and position on the road (14%). For the other parties involved, attention error (52%) was the most frequently assigned accident factor. The majority (78%) of the accidents involved road rule breaching on the part of the moped rider. The results indicate that preventive measures should aim to eliminate violations and increase anticipatory skills among moped riders and awareness of mopeds among other road users. Due to their young age the effect of such measures could be enhanced by infrastructural measures facilitating safe interaction between mopeds and other road users. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

    PubMed

    Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

    2013-01-01

    In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).

  19. Integration of RNA-Seq and RPPA data for survival time prediction in cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Isik, Zerrin; Ercan, Muserref Ece

    2017-10-01

    Integration of several types of patient data in a computational framework can accelerate the identification of more reliable biomarkers, especially for prognostic purposes. This study aims to identify biomarkers that can successfully predict the potential survival time of a cancer patient by integrating the transcriptomic (RNA-Seq), proteomic (RPPA), and protein-protein interaction (PPI) data. The proposed method -RPBioNet- employs a random walk-based algorithm that works on a PPI network to identify a limited number of protein biomarkers. Later, the method uses gene expression measurements of the selected biomarkers to train a classifier for the survival time prediction of patients. RPBioNet was applied to classify kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) patients based on their survival time classes (long- or short-term). The RPBioNet method correctly identified the survival time classes of patients with between 66% and 78% average accuracy for three data sets. RPBioNet operates with only 20 to 50 biomarkers and can achieve on average 6% higher accuracy compared to the closest alternative method, which uses only RNA-Seq data in the biomarker selection. Further analysis of the most predictive biomarkers highlighted genes that are common for both cancer types, as they may be driver proteins responsible for cancer progression. The novelty of this study is the integration of a PPI network with mRNA and protein expression data to identify more accurate prognostic biomarkers that can be used for clinical purposes in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Development of Database for Accident Analysis in Indian Mines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Guru Raghavendra Reddy, K.

    2016-10-01

    Mining is a hazardous industry and high accident rates associated with underground mining is a cause of deep concern. Technological developments notwithstanding, rate of fatal accidents and reportable incidents have not shown corresponding levels of decline. This paper argues that adoption of appropriate safety standards by both mine management and the government may result in appreciable reduction in accident frequency. This can be achieved by using the technology in improving the working conditions, sensitising workers and managers about causes and prevention of accidents. Inputs required for a detailed analysis of an accident include information on location, time, type, cost of accident, victim, nature of injury, personal and environmental factors etc. Such information can be generated from data available in the standard coded accident report form. This paper presents a web based application for accident analysis in Indian mines during 2001-2013. An accident database (SafeStat) prototype based on Intranet of the TCP/IP agreement, as developed by the authors, is also discussed.

  1. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  2. Severity of electrical accidents in the construction industry in Spain.

    PubMed

    Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; López-Arquillos, Antonio

    2014-02-01

    This paper analyzes the severity of workplace accidents involving electricity in the Spanish construction sector comprising 2,776 accidents from 2003 to 2008. The investigation considered the impact of 13 variables, classified into 5 categories: Personal, Business, Temporal, Material, and Spatial. The findings showed that electrical accidents are almost five times more likely to have serious consequences than the average accident in the sector and it also showed how the variables of age, occupation, company size, length of service, preventive measures, time of day, days of absence, physical activity, material agent, type of injury, body part injured, accident location, and type of location are related to the severity of the electrical accidents under consideration. The present situation makes it clear that greater effort needs to be made in training, monitoring, and signage to guarantee a safe working environment in relation to electrical hazards. This research enables safety technicians, companies, and government officials to identify priorities and to design training strategies to minimize the serious consequences of electrical accidents for construction workers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  3. The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

    PubMed

    Caird, J K; Kline, T J

    2004-12-01

    Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

  4. Work-related accidents and occupational diseases in veterinarians and their staff.

    PubMed

    Nienhaus, Albert; Skudlik, Christoph; Seidler, Andreas

    2005-04-01

    We assessed the occupational hazards in veterinary practice by analysing accident insurance data in order to stimulate strategies to prevent occupational accidents and diseases in veterinarians and their staff. Approximately 10,000 veterinary practices comprising about 27,500 veterinarians and their staff are covered by the Institution of Statutory Accident Insurance of the Health and Welfare Service (BGW). Each year about 2,000 accident and occupational disease claims are filed by these veterinarians and their staff. The claims for the 5-year period from 1998 to 2002 are analysed in this paper. For 2002, the incidence rate for accidents in the workplace was 105.4 per 1,000 full-time workers, a rate 2.9-times higher than for general practitioners of human medicine. When only severe accidents resulting in a loss of work time of more than 3 days were analysed, the relative risk increased to 9.2. Approximately 66% of the reported accidents are due to scratches, bites, or kicks from animals. Claims of occupational disease are filed 2.7-times more often by veterinarians and their staff than by general practitioners and their staff. The occupational diseases filed most often concern the skin (39%), followed by allergic respiratory diseases (30.5%), and infectious diseases (19.1%). Prevention strategies for veterinarians should focus on accidents caused by animals. The prevention of occupational diseases should focus on skin diseases, respiratory disease, and infections.

  5. Accident investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laynor, William G. Bud

    1987-01-01

    The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has attributed wind shear as a cause or contributing factor in 15 accidents involving transport-categroy airplanes since 1970. Nine of these were nonfatal; but the other six accounted for 440 lives. Five of the fatal accidents and seven of the nonfatal accidents involved encounters with convective downbursts or microbursts. Of other accidents, two which were nonfatal were encounters with a frontal system shear, and one which was fatal was the result of a terrain induced wind shear. These accidents are discussed with reference to helping the aircraft to avoid the wind shear or if impossible to help the pilot to get through the wind shear.

  6. Statistical Inference for Quality-Adjusted Survival Time

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-08-01

    survival functions of QAL. If an influence function for a test statistic exists for complete data case, denoted as ’i, then a test statistic for...the survival function for the censoring variable. Zhao and Tsiatis (2001) proposed a test statistic where O is the influence function of the general...to 1 everywhere until a subject’s death. We have considered other forms of test statistics. One option is to use an influence function 0i that is

  7. Paragliding accidents in remote areas.

    PubMed

    Fasching, G; Schippinger, G; Pretscher, R

    1997-08-01

    Paragliding is an increasingly popular hobby, as people try to find new and more adventurous activities. However, there is an increased and inherent danger with this sport. For this reason, as well as the inexperience of many operators, injuries occur frequently. This retrospective study centers on the helicopter rescue of 70 individuals in paragliding accidents. All histories were examined, and 43 patients answered a questionnaire. Nineteen (42%) pilots were injured when taking off, 20 (44%) during the flight, and six (13%) when landing. Routine and experience did not affect the prevalence of accident. Analysis of the causes of accident revealed pilot errors in all but three cases. In 34 rescue operations a landing of the helicopter near the site of the accident was possible. Half of the patients had to be rescued by a cable winch or a long rope fixed to the helicopter. Seven (10%) of the pilots suffered multiple trauma, 38 (54%) had injuries of the lower extremities, and 32 (84%) of them sustained fractures. Injuries to the spine were diagnosed in 34 cases with a fracture rate of 85%. One patient had an incomplete paraplegia. Injuries to the head occurred in 17 patients. No paraglider pilot died. The average hospitalization was 22 days, and average time of working inability was 14 weeks. Fourteen (34%) patients suffered from a permanent damage to their nerves or joints. Forty-three percent of the paragliders continued their sport despite the accident; two of them had another accident. An improved training program is necessary to lower the incidence of paragliding accidents. Optimal equipment to reduce injuries in case of accidents is mandatory. The helicopter emergency physician must perform a careful examination, provide stabilization of airways and circulation, give analgesics, splint fractured extremities, and transport the victim on a vacuum mattress to the appropriate hospital.

  8. Effect of first cannulation time and dialysis machine blood flows on survival of arteriovenous fistulas.

    PubMed

    Wilmink, Teun; Powers, Sarah; Hollingworth, Lee; Stevenson, Tamasin

    2018-05-01

    To study the effect of cannulation time on arteriovenous fistula (AVF) survival. Methods. Analysis of two prospective databases of access operations and dialysis sessions from 12 January 2002 through 4 January 2015 with follow-up until 4 January 2016. First cannulation time (FCT), defined from operation to first cannulation, was categorized as <2 weeks, 2-4 weeks, 4-8 weeks, 8-16 weeks and ≥16 weeks. Early cannulation was defined as FCT within 4 weeks. AVF survival was defined as the date until the AVF was abandoned. Maximum machine blood flow rate (BFR) for the first 29 dialysis sessions on AVF was analysed. Altogether, 1167 AVF with functional dialysis use were analysed: 667 (57%) radial cephalic AVF, 383 (33%) brachiocephalic AVF and 117 (10%) brachiobasilic AVF. The 631 (54%) AVF created in on-dialysis patients were analysed separately from 536 (46%) AVF created in pre-dialysis patients. AVF survival was similar between cannulation categories for both pre-dialysis patients (P = 0.19) and on-dialysis patients (P = 0.83). Early cannulation was associated with similar AVF survival in both pre-dialysis patients (P = 0.82) and on-dialysis patients (P = 0.17). Six consecutive successful cannulations from the start were associated with improved AVF survival (P = 0.0002). A below-median BFR at the start of dialysis was associated with better AVF survival (P < 0.0001). A below-median increase in BFR in the first 2 months was associated with worse AVF survival (P = 0.007). The type of AVF, diabetes, pre-dialysis state at operation and six successful cannulations from the start were independent predictors for AVF survival. FCT is not associated with AVF survival. Failures to achieve six successful cannulations from the start of dialysis and higher machine BFR in the first week of dialysis are associated with decreased AVF survival.

  9. Analysis of construction accidents in Turkey and responsible parties.

    PubMed

    Gürcanli, G Emre; Müngen, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world's biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972-2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00-12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases.

  10. Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

    PubMed Central

    GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

  11. Examining the Influence of Campus Climate on Students' Time to Degree: A Multilevel Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhou, Ji; Castellanos, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing longitudinal data of 3477 students from 28 institutions, we examine the effects of structural diversity and quality of interracial relation on students' persistence towards graduation within six years. We utilize multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to account for the longitudinal persistence patterns as well as the nested…

  12. Analysis of the FeCrAl Accident Tolerant Fuel Concept Benefits during BWR Station Blackout Accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Robb, Kevin R

    2015-01-01

    Iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloys are being considered for fuel concepts with enhanced accident tolerance. FeCrAl alloys have very slow oxidation kinetics and good strength at high temperatures. FeCrAl could be used for fuel cladding in light water reactors and/or as channel box material in boiling water reactors (BWRs). To estimate the potential safety gains afforded by the FeCrAl concept, the MELCOR code was used to analyze a range of postulated station blackout severe accident scenarios in a BWR/4 reactor employing FeCrAl. The simulations utilize the most recently known thermophysical properties and oxidation kinetics for FeCrAl. Overall, when compared to the traditionalmore » Zircaloy-based cladding and channel box, the FeCrAl concept provides a few extra hours of time for operators to take mitigating actions and/or for evacuations to take place. A coolable core geometry is retained longer, enhancing the ability to stabilize an accident. Finally, due to the slower oxidation kinetics, substantially less hydrogen is generated, and the generation is delayed in time. This decreases the amount of non-condensable gases in containment and the potential for deflagrations to inhibit the accident response.« less

  13. Self-evaluative appraisals of coping capability and posttraumatic distress following motor vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Benight, Charles C; Cieslak, Roman; Molton, Ivan R; Johnson, Lesley E

    2008-08-01

    This study tested the importance of coping self-efficacy (CSE) perceptions and change in perceptions of CSE for recovery from motor vehicle accident (MVA) trauma. Data were collected 7 days following the accident (Time 1; n = 163), 1 month after the accident (Time 2; n = 91), and 3 months after the accident (Time 3; n = 70). Early changes in CSE (i.e., from Time 1 to Time 2) predicted posttraumatic distress at 3 months after MVA trauma, even after controlling for Time 1 or Time 2 posttraumatic distress and other trauma-related variables (i.e., accident responsibility, litigation involvement, and peritraumatic dissociation). Early changes in CSE perceptions, however, neither moderated nor mediated the effects of early posttraumatic distress (Time 1) on 3-month posttraumatic distress. Time 2 CSE levels, however, did mediate the relationship between acute posttraumatic distress (Time 1) and 3-month posttraumatic distress (Time 3). These findings highlight the importance of early interventions aimed at strengthening self-efficacy after MVA trauma. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. [Frequently accidents and injury at school].

    PubMed

    Gautier Vargas, María; Martínez González, Vanesa

    2011-01-01

    During the time we have been in a private company that provide schools with medical care, we were surprised by the frequent and constant phone calls received to ask for our services. This fact made us take the decision to carry out a survey to find out the accidents and the most frequent injuries. According to the retrospective study we realized throughout two different academic courses in several schools in Cantabria, the 3.23% of the students have any accidents or injuries. We found out children between 11 and 15 have the highest accident rate, being 10.8 % higher when boys (rather than girls) are involved. The most common injuries are contusions 42.85%, followed by sprains 23.45%, being blows the reason in 42% of the cases, and surprisingly acts of aggression in 1%. It was also unexpected to learn that gyms, where children are taught in physical education, have the highest percent on accident rate. All these inquiries lead us to think that age, play and sports are determinant factors in the accidents happened in the school area.

  15. Evaluation of serum biochemical marker concentrations and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy.

    PubMed

    Equilino, Mirjam; Théodoloz, Vincent; Gorgas, Daniela; Doherr, Marcus G; Heilmann, Romy M; Suchodolski, Jan S; Steiner, Jörg M; Burgener Dvm, Iwan A

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate serum concentrations of biochemical markers and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). Prospective study. 29 dogs with PLE and 18 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). Data regarding serum concentrations of various biochemical markers at the initial evaluation were available for 18 of the 29 dogs with PLE and compared with findings for dogs with FRD. Correlations between biochemical marker concentrations and survival time (interval between time of initial evaluation and death or euthanasia) for dogs with PLE were evaluated. Serum C-reactive protein concentration was high in 13 of 18 dogs with PLE and in 2 of 18 dogs with FRD. Serum concentration of canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity was high in 3 dogs with PLE but within the reference interval in all dogs with FRD. Serum α1-proteinase inhibitor concentration was less than the lower reference limit in 9 dogs with PLE and 1 dog with FRD. Compared with findings in dogs with FRD, values of those 3 variables in dogs with PLE were significantly different. Serum calprotectin (measured by radioimmunoassay and ELISA) and S100A12 concentrations were high but did not differ significantly between groups. Seventeen of the 29 dogs with PLE were euthanized owing to this disease; median survival time was 67 days (range, 2 to 2,551 days). Serum C-reactive protein, canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and α1-proteinase inhibitor concentrations differed significantly between dogs with PLE and FRD. Most initial biomarker concentrations were not predictive of survival time in dogs with PLE.

  16. Factors associated with supermarket and convenience store closure: a discrete time spatial survival modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Warren, Joshua L; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2018-06-01

    While there is a literature on the distribution of food stores across geographic and social space, much of this research uses cross-sectional data. Analyses attempting to understand whether the availability of stores across neighborhoods is associated with diet and/or health outcomes are limited by a lack of understanding of factors that shape the emergence of new stores and the closure of others. We used quarterly data on supermarket and convenience store locations spanning seven years (2006-2012) and tract-level census data in four US cities: Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; San Francisco, California. A spatial discrete-time survival model was used to identify factors associated with an earlier and/or later closure time of a store. Sales volume was typically the strongest indicator of store survival. We identified heterogeneity in the association between tract-level poverty and racial composition with respect to store survival. Stores in high poverty, non-White tracts were often at a disadvantage in terms of survival length. The observed patterns of store survival varied by some of the same neighborhood sociodemographic factors associated with lifestyle and health outcomes, which could lead to confusion in interpretation in studies of the estimated effects of introduction of food stores into neighborhoods on health.

  17. Thermal control unit for long-time survival of scientific instruments on lunar surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogawa, Kazunori; Iijima, Yuichi; Tanaka, Satoshi

    A thermal control unit (lunar survival module) is being developed for scientific instruments placed on the lunar surface. This unit is designed to be used on the future Japanese lunar landing mission SELENE-2. The lunar surface is a severe environment for scientific instruments. The absence of convective cooling by an atmosphere makes the ground surface temperature variable in the wide range of -200 to 100 degC, an environment in which space electronics can hardly survive. The surface elements must have a thermal control structure to maintain the inner temperature within the operable ranges of the instruments for long-time measurements, such as 1 month or longer beyond the lunar nights. The objectives of this study are to develop a thermal control unit for the SELENE-2 mission. So far, we conducted the concept design of the lunar survival module, and estimated its potential by a thermal mathematical model on the assumption of using a lunar seismometer designed for SELENE-2. The basic structure of the thermal module is rather simple in that a heat insulating shell covers the scientific instruments. The concept is that the conical insulator retains heat in the regolith soil in the daylight, and it can keep the device warm in the night. Results of the model calculations indicated the high potential of long-time survival. A bread board model (BBM) was manufactured, and its thermal-vacuum tests were conducted in order to estimate the validity of some thermal parameters assumed in the computed thermal model. The thermal condition of the lunar surface was simulated by glass beads paved in a vacuum chamber, and a temperature-controlled container. Temperature variations of the BBM in thermal cycling tests were compared to a thermal mathematical model, and the thermal parameters were finally assessed. Feeding the test results back into the thermal model for the lunar surface, some thermal parameters were updated but there was no critical effect on the survivability. The

  18. Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents.

    PubMed

    Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

    2018-04-01

    In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows' milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper.

  19. Transport aircraft accident dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cominsky, A.

    1982-01-01

    A study was carried out of 112 impact survivable jet transport aircraft accidents (world wide) of 27,700 kg (60,000 lb.) aircraft and up extending over the last 20 years. This study centered on the effect of impact and the follow-on events on aircraft structures and was confined to the approach, landing and takeoff segments of the flight. The significant characteristics, frequency of occurrence and the effect on the occupants of the above data base were studied and categorized with a view to establishing typical impact scenarios for use as a basis of verifying the effectiveness of potential safety concepts. Studies were also carried out of related subjects such as: (1) assessment of advanced materials; (2) human tolerance to impact; (3) merit functions for safety concepts; and (4) impact analysis and test methods.

  20. The work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust.

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, R H; Cooper, S; Hayes, H R

    1988-01-01

    In 1983 an article was published in this Journal describing the work of the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Since that time many developments have taken place in the field of child accident prevention. There has been an increased recognition of the role of accidents and injuries in child health and the importance of accident prevention at an international, national, and local level. This has, in part, been a result of work undertaken by the Child Accident Prevention Trust. Much remains to be done, however, and doctors and other health workers involved with children must recognise the part that they can play in reducing this epidemic. Mortality and morbidity from accidents is the largest single problem in the health of children after the first year of life. The aim of this article is to stimulate interest in the problem of accidents in childhood especially among community paediatricians and clinical medical officers. Hospital doctors and general practitioners also have a particular part to play in drawing the attention of appropriate authorities to factors which have led to accidents that may have been preventable (see Annotation in this issue). PMID:3355217

  1. Timing of intra-aortic balloon pump support and 1-year survival.

    PubMed

    Ramnarine, Ian R; Grayson, Antony D; Dihmis, Walid C; Mediratta, Neeraj K; Fabri, Brian M; Chalmers, John A C

    2005-05-01

    The relationship between the timing of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support and surgical outcome remains a subject of debate. Peri-operative mechanical circulatory support is commenced either prophylactically or after increasing inotropic support has proved inadequate. This study evaluates the effect timing of IABP support on the 1-year survival of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. From April 1997 to September 2002, 7698 consecutive cardiac surgical procedures were performed. This included 5678 isolated coronary artery bypasses (CABGs), 1245 isolated valve procedures and 775 simultaneous CABG and valve procedures. IABP support was required in 237 patients (3.1%). Twenty-seven patients (0.35%) were classed as high-risk and received preoperative IABP support, 25 patients (0.32%) were haemodynamically compromised and required preoperative IABP support, 120 patients (1.56%) required intra-operative IABP support, and 65 patients (0.84%) required post-operative IABP support. Multiple variables were offered to a Cox proportional hazards model and significant predictors of 1-year survival were identified. These were used to risk adjust Kaplan-Meier survival curves. 1-year follow-up was complete and 450 deaths (5.8%) were recorded. The significant independent predictors of increased mortality at 1-year (P<0.05, HR=hazard ratio) were post-operative renal failure (HR=3.5), increasing EuroSCORE (HR=1.2), post-operative myocardial infarction (HR=3.7), post-operative IABP (HR=4.1) intra-operative IABP (HR=2.8), post-operative stroke (HR=2.5), increasing number of valves (HR=1.6), ejection fraction <30% (HR=1.3) and triple-vessel disease (HR=1.3). After risk-adjustment, 1-year survival for patients who required intra-operative IABP support was significantly greater than for those patients who required IABP support in the post-operative period. Patients who warrant IABP support in the post-operative setting have a significantly increased mortality at 1-year when compared to

  2. Laterality, spatial abilities, and accident proneness.

    PubMed

    Voyer, Susan D; Voyer, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Although handedness as a measure of cerebral specialization has been linked to accident proneness, more direct measures of laterality are rarely considered. The present study aimed to fill that gap in the existing research. In addition, individual difference factors in accident proneness were further examined with the inclusion of mental rotation and navigation abilities measures. One hundred and forty participants were asked to complete the Mental Rotations Test, the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction scale, the Greyscales task, the Fused Dichotic Word Test, the Waterloo Handedness Questionnaire, and a grip strength task before answering questions related to number of accidents in five areas. Results indicated that handedness scores, absolute visual laterality score, absolute response time on the auditory laterality index, and navigation ability were significant predictors of the total number of accidents. Results are discussed with respect to cerebral hemispheric specialization and risk-taking attitudes and behavior.

  3. FACTORS AFFECTING ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN BENGHAZI, LIBYA

    PubMed Central

    Al-Ghaweel, Ibrahim; Mursi, Saleh A.; Jack, Joel P.; Joel, Irene

    2009-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate the factors responsible for road traffic accidents in Benghazi. Material and Methods: Retrospective and descriptive studies were done in the years 2006-2007. The data was collected from Traffic and License Department, Benghazi. The data were analyzed, based on fatalities, the severely handicapped, hit and run victims and were correlated with age, sex, time, environmental factors, type of roads, etc. Results: One-Thousand-Two-Hundred-Sixty-Five accidents occurred between the years 2006-2007 within the Benghazi city limits; 11.14% of the injuries were fatal; 67.35% of the victims had severe injuries and 21.51% escaped with minor injuries. Table 1 shows that 73.04% lost their lives within the city limits, 13.47% on the fly-over, and 2.12% on minor roads connected to main roads within the city limits. The mean of the accidents and its standard deviation were 16.66± 25.67 with a variance of fatality of 1.54. Conclusion: It is concluded from the studies that major road traffic accidents occur because of environmental stress factors. In addition, fatalities and the seriousness of the accidents depend on a number of factors such as the age of the vehicle, safety measures, human error and time and place of accident. PMID:23012183

  4. Impact of Time Since Last Childbirth on Survival of Women with Premenopausal and Postmenopausal Breast Cancers.

    PubMed

    Balakrishnan, Nanthini; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Sinnadurai, Siamala; Bhoo Pathy, Nanthini Thevi; See, Mee-Hoong; Taib, Nur Aishah; Yip, Cheng-Har; Bhoo Pathy, Nirmala

    2017-11-01

    Reproductive factors are associated with risk of breast cancer, but the association with breast cancer survival is less well known. Previous studies have reported conflicting results on the association between time since last childbirth and breast cancer survival. We determined the association between time since last childbirth (LCB) and survival of women with premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancers in Malaysia. A historical cohort of 986 premenopausal, and 1123 postmenopausal, parous breast cancer patients diagnosed from 2001 to 2012 in University Malaya Medical Centre were included in the analyses. Time since LCB was categorized into quintiles. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine whether time since LCB was associated with survival following breast cancer, adjusting for demographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Premenopausal breast cancer patients with the most recent childbirth (LCB quintile 1) were younger, more likely to present with unfavorable prognostic profiles and had the lowest 5-year overall survival (OS) (66.9; 95% CI 60.2-73.6%), compared to women with longer duration since LCB (quintile 2 thru 5). In univariable analysis, time since LCB was inversely associated with risk of mortality and the hazard ratio for LCB quintile 2, 3, 4, and 5 versus quintile 1 were 0.53 (95% CI 0.36-0.77), 0.49 (95% CI 0.33-0.75), 0.61 (95% CI 0.43-0.85), and 0.64 (95% CI 0.44-0.93), respectively; P trend  = 0.016. However, this association was attenuated substantially following adjustment for age at diagnosis and other prognostic factors. Similarly, postmenopausal breast cancer patients with the most recent childbirth were also more likely to present with unfavorable disease profiles. Compared to postmenopausal breast cancer patients in LCB quintile 1, patients in quintile 5 had a higher risk of mortality. This association was not significant following multivariable adjustment. Time since LCB is not independently associated with survival in

  5. The Communication of Information Such as Evacuation Orders at the Time of a Nuclear Power Station Accident

    PubMed Central

    HATANAKA, Takashi; YOSHIDA, Sumito; OJINO, Mayo; ISHII, Masami

    2014-01-01

    This research was carried out from the perspective that the damage to the people of Fukushima and others from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) accident was an “information disaster.” It evaluated the critical problems raised by and actual condition analysis on the process of events in the Fukushima Daiichi NPS disaster and responses of the governments and others, notification of the occurrence of the accident and evacuation order by the national and local governments and the evacuation of residents, and guidance for distribution and intake of stable iodine tablets. The research aimed to provide a basis for the implementation of effective distribution and intake of stable iodine tablets and responses to the “information disaster” in the nuclear power disaster. On March 15 at the time that the most radioactive substances were dispersed, even when the average wind speed at the site area was 1.6 m/s, the radioactive substances had reached the outer boundary of Urgent Protective action planning Zone (UPZ, the region with a radius of 30 km) within about five hours. Because of this, every second counted in the provision of information about the accident and the issuance of evacuation orders. This study evaluated the actual condition of information provision by the national government and others from the perspective of this awareness of the importance of time. On the basis of the results of this kind of consideration, we come to the following recommendations: The Nuclear Emergency Response Guidelines and the system for communication of information to medical providers should be revised. The national government should make preparations for the effective advance distribution and intake of stable iodine tablets. PMID:26557446

  6. KMWin – A Convenient Tool for Graphical Presentation of Results from Kaplan-Meier Survival Time Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Background Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. Results On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. Conclusions We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups. PMID:22723912

  7. Cerebrovascular accidents complicating transcatheter aortic valve implantation: frequency, timing and impact on outcomes.

    PubMed

    Stortecky, Stefan; Windecker, Stephan; Pilgrim, Thomas; Heg, Dik; Buellesfeld, Lutz; Khattab, Ahmed A; Huber, Christoph; Gloekler, Steffen; Nietlispach, Fabian; Mattle, Heinrich; Jüni, Peter; Wenaweser, Peter

    2012-05-15

    Cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) are considered among the most serious adverse events after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The objective of the present study was to evaluate the frequency and timing of CVA after TAVI and to investigate the impact on clinical outcomes within 30 days of the procedure. Between August 2007 and October 2011, 389 high-risk elderly patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis underwent TAVI via transfemoral, transapical or subclavian access. A total of 14 patients (3.6%) experienced at least one CVA within 30 days of follow-up and most events (74%) occurred within the first day of the procedure. Patients with CVA had an increased risk of all-cause (42.3% vs. 5.1%, ORadjusted 11.7, 95% CI 3.4-40.3, p<0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (38.4% vs. 4.6%, ORadjusted 10.5, 95% CI 2.9-37.8, p<0.001) compared to patients without CVA at 30 days of follow-up. Repeated device implantation attempts (ORadjusted 8.3, CI 2.1-33.3, p<0.003), chronic pulmonary disease (ORadjusted 4.7, CI 1.3-16.8, p=0.02) and body mass index <25 kg/m2 (ORadjusted 0.8, CI 0.7-0.9, p<0.01) emerged as independent predictors of periprocedural CVA. Cerebrovascular accidents among patients undergoing TAVI occur predominantly during the periprocedural period, are associated with multiple implantation attempts of the bioprosthesis and significantly impair prognosis.

  8. Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents

    PubMed Central

    Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

    2018-01-01

    Abstract In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows’ milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper. PMID:29415268

  9. Effects of smolt release timing and size on the survival of hatchery-origin coho salmon in the Strait of Georgia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, J. R.; O'Neill, M.; Godbout, L.; Schnute, J.

    2013-08-01

    Altering release sizes and timings of coho salmon smolts from hatcheries in the Strait of Georgia will not reverse the precipitous survival declines of the past three decades. We modeled the effects on survival of ocean entry year, mean smolt size (weight), and release day. Ocean entry year was by far the most important. During 1979-2006, smolt to adult survivals declined similarly for hatchery and wild coho salmon, although wild salmon consistently survived at higher rates. Best models differed among hatcheries, implying location-specific differences in the optimal size and timing of release. At four of five hatcheries, heavier smolts survived significantly better than lighter smolts. At one hatchery, a significant interaction between ocean entry year and smolt weight reflected an increased positive effect of weight later in the time series. At two Vancouver Island hatcheries, early release groups appeared to survive better than later releases in early years, while later release groups survived best in recent years. We recommend: (1) hatchery managers release coho salmon smolts throughout the outmigration period of higher surviving wild coho salmon smolts and (2) an experimental approach using hatcheries to evaluate density-dependent effects on coho salmon growth and survival.

  10. The effect of time until surgical intervention on survival in dogs with secondary septic peritonitis

    PubMed Central

    Bush, Maxwell; Carno, Margaret A.; St. Germaine, Lindsay; Hoffmann, Daniel E.

    2016-01-01

    This retrospective study examined the effect of time to intervention on outcome in cases of dogs with secondary septic peritonitis, and also searched for other potential prognostic factors. The medical records of 55 dogs were reviewed. No association was found between outcome and the time from hospital admission to surgical source control. However, several other factors were found to influence survival, including: age, needing vasopressors, lactate, pre-operative packed cell volume, serum alkaline phosphatase, serum total bilirubin, and post-operative serum albumin. These values were then used to create accurate pre- and post-operative survival prediction models. PMID:27928174

  11. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rempe, J. L.; Knudson, D. L.; Lutz, R. J.

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure thatmore » critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that

  12. Prognosis in Acute Cerebrovascular Accidents in Relation to Respiratory Pattern and Blood—gas Tensions

    PubMed Central

    Rout, M. W.; Lane, D. J.; Wollner, L.

    1971-01-01

    Respiratory pattern and arterial blood gas tensions were assessed in patients with acute cerebrovascular accidents. Hyperventilation, low Pco2, and high arterial pH were associated with a poor prognosis, whereas patients with normal respiratory pattern and blood gas tensions survived. Periodic and Cheyne-Stokes breathing carried an intermediate prognosis. PMID:5091916

  13. Insomnia and accidents: cross-sectional study (EQUINOX) on sleep-related home, work and car accidents in 5293 subjects with insomnia from 10 countries.

    PubMed

    Léger, Damien; Bayon, Virginie; Ohayon, Maurice M; Philip, Pierre; Ement, Philippe; Metlaine, Arnaud; Chennaoui, Mounir; Faraut, Brice

    2014-04-01

    The link between sleepiness and the risk of motor vehicle accidents is well known, but little is understood regarding the risk of home, work and car accidents of subjects with insomnia. An international cross-sectional survey was conducted across 10 countries in a population of subjects with sleep disturbances. Primary care physicians administered a questionnaire that included assessment of sociodemographic characteristics, sleep disturbance and accidents (motor vehicle, work and home) related to sleep problems to each subject. Insomnia was defined using the International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD-10) criteria. A total of 5293 subjects were included in the study, of whom 20.9% reported having had at least one home accident within the past 12 months, 10.1% at least one work accident, 9% reported having fallen asleep while driving at least once and 4.1% reported having had at least one car accident related to their sleepiness. All types of accident were reported more commonly by subjects living in urban compared to other residential areas. Car accidents were reported more commonly by employed subjects, whereas home injuries were reported more frequently by the unemployed. Car accidents were reported more frequently by males than by females, whereas home accidents were reported more commonly by females. Patients with insomnia have high rates of home accidents, car accidents and work accidents related to sleep disturbances independently of any adverse effects of hypnotic treatments. Reduced total sleep time may be one factor explaining the high risk of accidents in individuals who complain of insomnia. © 2013 European Sleep Research Society.

  14. Levels of gemcitabine transport and metabolism proteins predict survival times of patients treated with gemcitabine for pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Maréchal, Raphaël; Bachet, Jean-Baptiste; Mackey, John R; Dalban, Cécile; Demetter, Pieter; Graham, Kathryn; Couvelard, Anne; Svrcek, Magali; Bardier-Dupas, Armelle; Hammel, Pascal; Sauvanet, Alain; Louvet, Christophe; Paye, François; Rougier, Philippe; Penna, Christophe; André, Thierry; Dumontet, Charles; Cass, Carol E; Jordheim, Lars Petter; Matera, Eva-Laure; Closset, Jean; Salmon, Isabelle; Devière, Jacques; Emile, Jean-François; Van Laethem, Jean-Luc

    2012-09-01

    Patients who undergo surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) frequently receive adjuvant gemcitabine chemotherapy. Key determinants of gemcitabine cytotoxicity include the activities of the human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1), deoxycytidine kinase (dCK), and ribonucleotide reductase subunit 1 (RRM1). We investigated whether tumor levels of these proteins were associated with efficacy of gemcitabine therapy following surgery. Sequential samples of resected PDACs were retrospectively collected from 434 patients at 5 centers; 142 patients did not receive adjuvant treatment (33%), 243 received adjuvant gemcitabine-based regimens (56%), and 49 received nongemcitabine regimens (11%). We measured protein levels of hENT1, dCK, and RRM1 by semiquantitative immunohistochemistry with tissue microarrays and investigated their relationship with patients' overall survival time. The median overall survival time of patients was 32.0 months. Among patients who did not receive adjuvant treatment, levels of hENT1, RRM1, and dCK were not associated with survival time. Among patients who received gemcitabine, high levels of hENT1 and dCK were significantly associated with longer survival time (hazard ratios of 0.34 [P < .0001] and 0.57 [P = .012], respectively). Interaction tests for gemcitabine administration and hENT1 and dCK status were statistically significant (P = .0007 and P = .016, respectively). On multivariate analysis of this population, hENT1 and dCK retained independent predictive values, and those patients with high levels of each protein had the longest survival times following adjuvant therapy with gemcitabine. High levels of hENT1 and dCK in PDAC predict longer survival times in patients treated with adjuvant gemcitabine. Copyright © 2012 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation timemore » studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats.« less

  16. [Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and Tokaimura criticality accident].

    PubMed

    Takada, Jun

    2012-03-01

    It is clear from inspection of historical incidents that the scale of disasters in a nuclear power plant accident is quite low level overwhelmingly compared with a nuclear explosion in nuclear war. Two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by nuclear blast with about 20 kt TNT equivalent and then approximately 100,000 people have died respectively. On the other hand, the number of acute death is 30 in the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. In this chapter, we review health hazards and doses in two historical nuclear incidents of Chernobyl and Tokaimura criticality accident and then understand the feature of the radiation accident in peaceful utilization of nuclear power.

  17. Survival times of patients with a first hip fracture with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures.

    PubMed

    Angthong, Chayanin; Angthong, Wirana; Harnroongroj, Thos; Naito, Masatoshi; Harnroongroj, Thossart

    2013-01-01

    Survival rates are poorer after a second hip fracture than after a first hip fracture. Previous survival studies have included in-hospital mortality. Excluding in-hospital deaths from the analysis allows survival times to be evaluated in community-based patients. There is still a lack of data regarding the effects of subsequent fractures on survival times after hospital discharge following an initial hip fracture. This study compared the survival times of community-dwelling patients with hip fracture who had or did not have a subsequent major long-bone fracture. Hazard ratios and risk factors for subsequent fractures and mortality rates with and without subsequent fractures were calculated. Of 844 patients with hip fracture from 2000 through 2008, 71 had a subsequent major long-bone fracture and 773 did not. Patients who died of other causes, such as perioperative complications, during hospitalization were excluded. Such exclusion allowed us to determine the effect of subsequent fracture on the survival of community-dwelling individuals after hospital discharge or after the time of the fracture if they did not need hospitalization. Demographic data, causes of death, and mortality rates were recorded. Differences in mortality rates between the patient groups and hazard ratios were calculated. Mortality rates during the first year and from 1 to 5 years after the most recent fracture were 5.6% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients with subsequent fractures, and 4.7% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients without subsequent fractures. These rates did not differ significantly between the groups. Cox regression analysis and calculation of hazard ratios did not show significant differences between patients with subsequent fractures and those without. On univariate and multivariate analyses, age <75 years and male sex were risk factors for subsequent fracture. This study found that survival times did not differ significantly between patients with and without subsequent major

  18. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2016-01-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  19. Time series changes in radiocaesium distribution in tea plants (Camellia sinensis (L.)) after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Hirono, Yuhei; Nonaka, Kunihiko

    2016-02-01

    Radiocaesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) release following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, belonging to the Tokyo Electric Power Company caused severe contamination of new tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.)) shoots by radiocaesium in many prefectures in eastern Japan. Because tea plants are perennial crops, there is the fear that the contamination might last for a long time. The objectives of this study were to reveal time series changes in the distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants after radioactive fallout and to evaluate the effect of pruning on reduction of radiocaesium concentrations in new shoots growing next year. The experimental tea field was located in Shizuoka, Japan, approximately 400 km away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in a southwest direction. Time series changes in radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea, a tea product primarily produced for making Japanese green tea, from May 2011 to June 2013 and distribution of radiocaesium in tea plants from May 2011 to May 2012 were monitored. The radiocaesium concentrations in unrefined tea exponentially decreased; the effective half-lives for (134)Cs and (137)Cs were 0.30 and 0.36 y during the first 2 y after the accident, respectively. With time, the highest concentrations of (137)Cs moved from the upper to the lower parts of plants. Medium pruning 2-3 months after the accident reduced the concentration of (137)Cs in new shoots harvested in the first crop season of the following year by 56% compared with unpruned tea plants; thus, pruning is an effective measure for reducing radiocaesium concentration in tea. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. ["Crows' feet wrinkles" in high voltage electric accident--a sign of survival?].

    PubMed

    Grellner, W; Madea, B

    1994-01-01

    A "crowsfoot-like" pattern is considered as being a sign of vitality in fatalities due to the effects of smoke, fire or high voltage (active or reflex contraction of mimic muscles). Introducing the autopsy results of a high voltage accident (66,600 V) it is discussed, whether this phenomenon and the underlying contraction of the facial muscles could also be caused by electrical current in the agony or supravital period. It seems possible that this mechanism of direct muscle contraction anticipates a nerval indirect stimulation of muscle fibres by innervating motoneurones--active or on the basis of a polysynaptic extraneous reflex. If the electrophysiological course discussed should be right, a "crowsfoot-like" pattern in equivalent cases could be interpreted as a vital sign only with great reserve.

  1. Determination of the impact of melanoma surgical timing on survival using the National Cancer Database.

    PubMed

    Conic, Ruzica Z; Cabrera, Claudia I; Khorana, Alok A; Gastman, Brian R

    2018-01-01

    The ideal timing for melanoma treatment, predominantly surgery, remains undetermined. Patient concern for receiving immediate treatment often exceeds surgeon or hospital availability, requiring establishment of a safe window for melanoma surgery. To assess the impact of time to definitive melanoma surgery on overall survival. Patients with stage I to III cutaneous melanoma and with available time to definitive surgery and overall survival were identified by using the National Cancer Database (N = 153,218). The t test and chi-square test were used to compare variables. Cox regression was used for multivariate analysis. In a multivariate analysis of patients in all stages who were treated between 90 and 119 days after biopsy (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.18) and more than 119 days (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.02-1.22) had a higher risk for mortality compared with those treated within 30 days of biopsy. In a subgroup analysis of stage I, higher mortality risk was found in patients treated within 30 to 59 days (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.1), 60 to 89 days (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.25), 90 to 119 days (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12-1.48), and more than 119 days after biopsy (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.21-1.65). Surgical timing did not affect survival in stages II and III. Melanoma-specific survival was not available. Expeditious treatment of stage I melanoma is associated with improved outcomes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

    PubMed

    Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

    2018-08-01

    Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. World commercial aircraft accidents: 1st edition, 1946--1991

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1992-02-01

    This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. This report is organized into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter contains the compilation of accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft from 1952 to 1991. The third chapter presents a compilation ofmore » accidents involving world commercial turboprop aircraft from 1952 to 1991. The fourth chapter presents a compilation of accidents involving world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines from 1946 to 1991. Each accident compilation or database in chapters two, three and four is presented in chronological order. Each accident is presented with information the following categories: date of accident, airline or operator and its flight number (if known), type of flight, type of aircraft and model, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage resulting from accident, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, references used to compile the information, and finally cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident. The fifth chapter presents a list of all commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities. Chapter six presents the commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types by flight phase. Future editions of this report will have additional follow-on chapters which will present other studies still in preparation at the time this edition was being prepared.« less

  4. Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

    PubMed

    Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

    2011-11-01

    Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Differences in the timing of cardio-respiratory development determine whether marine gastropod embryos survive or die in hypoxia.

    PubMed

    Rudin-Bitterli, Tabitha S; Spicer, John I; Rundle, Simon D

    2016-04-01

    Physiological plasticity of early developmental stages is a key way by which organisms can survive and adapt to environmental change. We investigated developmental plasticity of aspects of the cardio-respiratory physiology of encapsulated embryos of a marine gastropod, Littorina obtusata, surviving exposure to moderate hypoxia (PO2 =8 kPa) and compared the development of these survivors with that of individuals that died before hatching. Individuals surviving hypoxia exhibited a slower rate of development and altered ontogeny of cardio-respiratory structure and function compared with normoxic controls (PO2 >20 kPa). The onset and development of the larval and adult hearts were delayed in chronological time in hypoxia, but both organs appeared earlier in developmental time and cardiac activity rates were greater. The velum, a transient, 'larval' organ thought to play a role in gas exchange, was larger in hypoxia but developed more slowly (in chronological time), and velar cilia-driven, rotational activity was lower. Despite these effects of hypoxia, 38% of individuals survived to hatching. Compared with those embryos that died during development, these surviving embryos had advanced expression of adult structures, i.e. a significantly earlier occurrence and greater activity of their adult heart and larger shells. In contrast, embryos that died retained larval cardio-respiratory features (the velum and larval heart) for longer in chronological time. Surviving embryos came from eggs with significantly higher albumen provisioning than those that died, suggesting an energetic component for advanced development of adult traits. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  6. World commercial aircraft accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1993-01-01

    This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. Included are: accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft, world commercial turboprop aircraft, world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines and world commercial pistonprop aircraft with two or three engines from 1946 to 1992. Each accidentmore » is presented with information in the following categories: date of the accident, airline and its flight numbers, type of flight, type of aircraft, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident, and finally references used. The sixth chapter presents a summary of the world commercial aircraft accidents by major aircraft class (e.g. jet, turboprop, and pistonprop) and by flight phase. The seventh chapter presents several special studies including a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities, a list of collision accidents involving commercial aircrafts, and a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, and hijackings.« less

  7. Survival benefit of lung transplantation for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Tanash, Hanan A; Riise, Gerdt C; Ekström, Magnus P; Hansson, Lennart; Piitulainen, Eeva

    2014-12-01

    Lung transplantation (LTx) is a therapeutic option for patients with life-threatening chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) that is refractory to conventional therapies. The survival benefit of LTx for COPD is difficult to assess. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Swedish series of LTx performed to treat COPD and to identify differences in outcome between COPD related to severe alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) and COPD with normal alpha-1-antitrypsin (AAT) levels. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 342 patients (128 AATD and 214 non-AATD) receiving lung transplants for end stage COPD from 1990 through 2012. The majority (71%) of patients received a single lung transplant. The median survival time after LTx for all COPD patients was 9 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8 to 10). Non-AATD recipients had a shorter survival time than AATD recipients, 6 years (95% CI: 5.0 to 8.8) versus 12 years (95% CI: 9.6 to 13.5, p = 0.000). Mortality was higher among non-AATD recipients after adjusting for age, pack-years of smoking, body mass index, oxygen therapy use, exercise capacity, donor age, cytomegalovirus mismatch, and transplant type (hazard ratio 1.70, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.82). The 5-year and 10-year survival rates for the AATD recipients were 75% and 59%, respectively, compared with 60% and 31% for the non-AATD recipients. Early deaths were mainly due to cardio/cerebrovascular accidents and sepsis, and late deaths to bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome and pulmonary infections. Survival after LTx is significantly better for patients with severe AATD and end stage COPD than for the patients with COPD related to cigarette smoking. Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. It's Deja Vu All over Again: Using Multiple-Spell Discrete-Time Survival Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willett, John B.; Singer, Judith D.

    1995-01-01

    The multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis method is introduced and illustrated using longitudinal data on exit from and reentry into the teaching profession. The method is applicable to many educational problems involving the sequential occurrence of disparate events or episodes. (SLD)

  9. Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

    PubMed

    Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

    2010-11-01

    Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of

  10. Preliminary assessment of accident-tolerant fuels on LWR performance during normal operation and under DB and BDB accident conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ott, L. J.; Robb, K. R.; Wang, D.

    2014-05-01

    Following the severe accidents at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the US Department of Energy initiated research and development on the enhancement of the accident tolerance of light water reactors by the development of fuels/cladding that, in comparison with the standard UO2/Zircaloy (Zr) system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations. Analyses are presented that illustrate the impact of these new candidate fuel/cladding materials on the fuel performance at normal operating conditions and on the reactor system under DB and BDB accident conditions.

  11. Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

    2014-12-01

    Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  12. Survival with Three-Times Weekly In-Center Nocturnal Versus Conventional Hemodialysis

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Jianglin; Suri, Rita S.; Nesrallah, Gihad; Lindsay, Robert; Garg, Amit X.; Lester, Keith; Ofsthun, Norma; Lazarus, Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

    2012-01-01

    Whether the duration of hemodialysis treatments improves outcomes remains controversial. Here, we evaluated survival and clinical changes associated with converting from conventional hemodialysis (mean=3.75 h/treatment) to in-center nocturnal hemodialysis (mean=7.85 h/treatment). All 959 consecutive patients who initiated nocturnal hemodialysis for the first time in 77 Fresenius Medical Care facilities during 2006 and 2007 were eligible. We used Cox models to compare risk for mortality during 2 years of follow-up in a 1:3 propensity score–matched cohort of 746 nocturnal and 2062 control patients on conventional hemodialysis. Two-year mortality was 19% among nocturnal hemodialysis patients compared with 27% among conventional patients. Nocturnal hemodialysis associated with a 25% reduction in the risk for death after adjustment for age, body mass index, and dialysis vintage (hazard ratio=0.75, 95% confidence interval=0.61–0.91, P=0.004). With respect to clinical features, interdialytic weight gain, albumin, hemoglobin, dialysis dose, and calcium increased on nocturnal therapy, whereas postdialysis weight, predialysis systolic blood pressure, ultrafiltration rate, phosphorus, and white blood cell count declined (all P<0.001). In summary, notwithstanding the possibility of residual selection bias, conversion to treatment with nocturnal hemodialysis associates with favorable clinical features, laboratory biomarkers, and improved survival compared with propensity score–matched controls. The potential impact of extended treatment time on clinical outcomes while maintaining a three times per week hemodialysis schedule requires evaluation in future clinical trials. PMID:22362905

  13. Time interval between endometrial biopsy and surgical staging for type I endometrial cancer: association between tumor characteristics and survival outcome.

    PubMed

    Matsuo, Koji; Opper, Neisha R; Ciccone, Marcia A; Garcia, Jocelyn; Tierney, Katherine E; Baba, Tsukasa; Muderspach, Laila I; Roman, Lynda D

    2015-02-01

    To examine whether wait time between endometrial biopsy and surgical staging correlates with tumor characteristics and affects survival outcomes in patients with type I endometrial cancer. A retrospective study was conducted to examine patients with grade 1 and 2 endometrioid adenocarcinoma diagnosed by preoperative endometrial biopsy who subsequently underwent hysterectomy-based surgical staging between 2000 and 2013. Patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal treatment were excluded. Time interval and grade change between endometrial biopsy and hysterectomy were correlated to demographics and survival outcomes. Median wait time was 57 days (range 1-177 days) among 435 patients. Upgrading of the tumor to grade 3 in the hysterectomy specimen was seen in 4.7% of 321 tumors classified as grade 1 and 18.4% of 114 tumors classified as grade 2 on the endometrial biopsy, respectively. Wait time was not associated with grade change (P>.05). Controlling for age, ethnicity, body habitus, medical comorbidities, CA 125 level, and stage, multivariable analysis revealed that wait time was not associated with survival outcomes (5-year overall survival rates, wait time 1-14, 15-42, 43-84, and 85 days or more; 62.5%, 93.6%, 95.2%, and 100%, respectively, P>.05); however, grade 1 to 3 on the hysterectomy specimen remained as an independent prognosticator associated with decreased survival (5-year overall survival rates, grade 1 to 3 compared with grade change 1 to 1, 82.1% compared with 98.5%, P=.01). Among grade 1 preoperative biopsies, grade 1 to 3 was significantly associated with nonobesity (P=.039) and advanced stage (P=.019). Wait time for surgical staging was not associated with decreased survival outcome in patients with type I endometrial cancer.

  14. An Application of CICCT Accident Categories to Aviation Accidents in 1988-2004

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Joni K.

    2007-01-01

    Interventions or technologies developed to improve aviation safety often focus on specific causes or accident categories. Evaluation of the potential effectiveness of those interventions is dependent upon mapping the historical aviation accidents into those same accident categories. To that end, the United States civil aviation accidents occurring between 1988 and 2004 (n=26,117) were assigned accident categories based upon the taxonomy developed by the CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). Results are presented separately for four main categories of flight rules: Part 121 (large commercial air carriers), Scheduled Part 135 (commuter airlines), Non-Scheduled Part 135 (on-demand air taxi) and Part 91 (general aviation). Injuries and aircraft damage are summarized by year and by accident category.

  15. Decrease of total activity with time at long distances from a nuclear accident or explosion.

    PubMed

    Dolejs, Josef

    2005-05-01

    Two data groups were analyzed: (1) the exposure rate in the former Czechoslovakia after the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and (2) the decrease of beta activity of an atmospheric fallout sample taken in Bratislava during 24 h on 30 May 1965. Both quantities decreased with the first power of time. This pattern of decrease is explained by applying the same mathematical formalism as is also used to describe the decrease in postnatal mortality with age. Following this formalism, the decrease of total activity with the first power of time could be seen as a consequence of a log-normal distribution of decay constants in the fallout. This differs slightly from earlier results that show the total activity decreasing with a power of 1.2 immediately after the nuclear explosion.

  16. The effect of time to defibrillation and targeted temperature management on functional survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    PubMed

    Drennan, Ian R; Lin, Steve; Thorpe, Kevin E; Morrison, Laurie J

    2014-11-01

    Cardiac arrest physiology has been proposed to occur in three distinct phases: electrical, circulatory and metabolic. There is limited research evaluating the relationship of the 3-phase model of cardiac arrest to functional survival at hospital discharge. Furthermore, the effect of post-cardiac arrest targeted temperature management (TTM) on functional survival during each phase is unknown. To determine the effect of TTM on the relationship between the time of initial defibrillation during each phase of cardiac arrest and functional survival at hospital discharge. This was a retrospective observational study of consecutive adult (≥18 years) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with initial shockable rhythms. Included patients obtained a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and were eligible for TTM. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine predictors of functional survival at hospital discharge. There were 20,165 OHCA treated by EMS and 871 patients were eligible for TTM. Of these patients, 622 (71.4%) survived to hospital discharge and 487 (55.9%) had good functional survival. Good functional survival was associated with younger age (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.93-0.95), shorter times from collapse to initial defibrillation (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.65-0.82), and use of post-cardiac arrest TTM (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.07-2.30). Functional survival decreased during each phase of the model (65.3% vs. 61.7% vs. 50.2%, P<0.001). Functional survival at hospital discharge was associated with shorter times to initial defibrillation and was decreased during each successive phase of the 3-phase model. Post-cardiac arrest TTM was associated with improved functional survival. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    PubMed

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  18. Fatal light aircraft accidents in Ontario: a five year study.

    PubMed

    Shkrum, M J; Hurlbut, D J; Young, J G

    1996-03-01

    Fatal civil aviation crashes in Ontario from 1985 to 1989 were studied. Data regarding accident circumstances, injury patterns and medical factors (disease, alcohol/drugs) which could have contributed to accident causation was obtained from a review of the files of the Chief Coroner for Ontario in Toronto and the aviation occurrence reports of the Transportation Safety Board of Canada. Forty-seven crashes involving mainly general aviation type aircraft but also 2 gyroplanes, 2 ultralights and a glider were reviewed. About half occurred during the cruise phase of the flight. Seventy (40 pilots; 30 passengers) of the 98 occupants died. The bodies of 68 victims were recovered; 63 were dead at the scene and 5 survived up to ten hours after impact. Multiple trauma killed about half of all the victims (n = 34); 29% (n = 20) drowned; 16% (n = 11) and 3% (n = 2) died of head/neck injuries and coronary disease respectively. Neck trauma was observed mostly in pilots and was the most frequent major blunt trauma injury in drowning victims. Passengers sustained relatively more craniofacial fractures and abdominal/retroperitoneal trauma. Pilot error was the most frequent cause of crashes (55%; 26/47 impacts) followed by mechanical failure (15%; 7/47) and adverse weather/environmental conditions (11%; 5/47). Coronary artery disease incapacitated two pilots (4% of crashes) and ethanol intoxication was implicated in two other accidents. Other drugs did not appear to be a definite factor in accident causation.

  19. Traffic crash accidents in Tehran, Iran: Its relation with circadian rhythm of sleepiness.

    PubMed

    Sadeghniiat-Haghighi, Khosro; Yazdi, Zohreh; Moradinia, Mohsen; Aminian, Omid; Esmaili, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are one of main problems in Iran. Multiple factors cause traffic accidents and the most important one is sleepiness. This factor, however, is given less attention in our country. Road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness are studied. In this cross-sectional study, all road traffic accidents relevant to sleepiness, which were reported by police, were studied in Tehran province in 2009. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was increased by more than sevenfold (odds ratio = 7.33) in low alertness hours (0:00-6:00) compared to other time of day. The risk of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness was decreased by 0.15-fold (odds ratio = 0.15) in hours with maximum of alertness (18:00-22:00) of circadian rhythm compared to other time of day. The occurrence of road traffic accidents due to sleepiness has significant statistical relations with driving during lowest point of alertness of circadian rhythm.

  20. Traffic Accidents Involving Cyclists Identifying Causal Factors Using Questionnaire Survey, Traffic Accident Data, and Real-World Observation.

    PubMed

    Oikawa, Shoko; Hirose, Toshiya; Aomura, Shigeru; Matsui, Yasuhiro

    2016-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to clarify the mechanism of traffic accidents involving cyclists. The focus is on the characteristics of cyclist accidents and scenarios, because the number of traffic accidents involving cyclists in Tokyo is the highest in Japan. First, dangerous situations in traffic incidents were investigated by collecting data from 304 cyclists in one city in Tokyo using a questionnaire survey. The survey indicated that cyclists used their bicycles generally while commuting to work or school in the morning. Second, the study investigated the characteristics of 250 accident situations involving cyclists that happened in the city using real-world bicycle accident data. The results revealed that the traffic accidents occurred at intersections of local streets, where cyclists collided most often with vehicles during commute time in the morning. Third, cyclists' behavior was observed at a local street intersection in the morning in the city using video pictures. In one hour during the morning commute period, 250 bicycles passed through the intersection. The results indicated that one of the reasons for traffic accidents involving cyclists might be the combined effect of low visibility, caused by the presence of box-like building structures close to the intersections, and the cyclists' behavior in terms of their velocity and no confirming safety. It was observed that, on average, bicycle velocity was 3.1 m/s at the initial line of an intersection. The findings from this study could be useful in developing new technologies to improve cyclist safety, such as alert devices for cyclists and vehicle drivers, wireless communication systems between cyclists and vehicle drivers, or advanced vehicles with bicycle detection and collision mitigation systems.

  1. Traffic accidents on expressways: new threat to China.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jinbao; Deng, Wei

    2012-01-01

    As China is building one of the largest expressway systems in the world, expressway safety problems have become serious concerns to China. This article analyzed the trends in expressway accidents in China from 1995 to 2010 and examined the characteristics of these accidents. Expressway accident data were obtained from the Annual Report for Road Traffic Accidents published by the Ministry of Public Security of China. Expressway mileage data were obtained from the National Statistics Yearbook published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted based on these data. Expressway deaths increased by 10.2-fold from 616 persons in 1995 to 6300 persons in 2010, and the average annual increase was 17.9 percent over the past 15 years, and the overall other road traffic deaths was -0.33 percent. China's expressway mileage accounted for only 1.85 percent of highway mileage driven in 2010, but expressway deaths made up 13.54 percent of highway traffic deaths. The average annual accident lethality rate [accident deaths/(accident deaths + accident injuries)] for China's expressways was 27.76 percent during the period 1995 to 2010, which was 1.33 times higher than the accident lethality rate of highway traffic accidents. China's government should pay attention to expressway construction and safety interventions during the rapid development period of expressways. Related causes, such as geographic patterns, speeding, weather conditions, and traffic flow composition, need to be studied in the near future. An effective and scientific expressway safety management services system, composed of a speed monitoring system, warning system, and emergency rescue system, should be established in developed and underdeveloped provinces in China to improve safety on expressway.

  2. Ambulance traffic accidents in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Po-Wei; Lin, Chih-Hao; Wu, Chen-Long; Fang, Pin-Hui; Lu, Chien-Hsin; Hsu, Hsiang-Chin; Chi, Chih-Hsien

    2018-04-01

    Ambulance traffic accidents (ATAs) are the leading cause of occupation-related fatalities among emergency medical service (EMS) personnel. We aim to use the Taiwan national surveillance system to analyze the characteristics of ATAs and to assist EMS directors in developing policies governing ambulance operations. A retrospective, cross-sectional and largely descriptive study was conducted using Taiwan national traffic accidents surveillance data from January 1, 2011 to October 31, 2016. Among the 1,627,217 traffic accidents during the study period, 715 ATAs caused 8 deaths within 24 h and 1844 injured patients. On average, there was one ATA for every 8598 ambulance runs. Compared to overall traffic accidents, ATAs were 1.7 times more likely to result in death and 1.9 times more likely to have injured patients. Among the 715 ATAs, 8 (1.1%) ATAs were fatal and 707 (98.9%) were nonfatal. All 8 fatalities were associated with motorcycles. The urban areas were significantly higher than the rural areas in the annual number of ATAs (14.2 ± 7.3 [7.0-26.7] versus 3.1 ± 1.9 [0.5-8.4], p = 0.013), the number of ATA-associated fatalities per year (0.2 ± 0.2 [0.0-0.7] versus 0.1 ± 0.1 [0.0-0.2], p = 0.022), and the annual number of injured patients (who needed urgent hospital visits) in ATAs (19.4 ± 7.3 [10.5-30.9] versus 5.2 ± 3.8 [0.9-15.3], p < 0.001). The ATA-associated fatality rate in Taiwan was high, and all fatalities were associated with motorcycles. ATAs in a highly motorcycle-populated area may require further investigation. An ambulance traffic accident reporting system should be built to provide EMS policy guidance for ATA reduction and outcome improvements. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Accident diagnosis system based on real-time decision tree expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolau, Andressa dos S.; Augusto, João P. da S. C.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-06-01

    Safety is one of the most studied topics when referring to power stations. For that reason, sensors and alarms develop an important role in environmental and human protection. When abnormal event happens, it triggers a chain of alarms that must be, somehow, checked by the control room operators. In this case, diagnosis support system can help operators to accurately identify the possible root-cause of the problem in short time. In this article, we present a computational model of a generic diagnose support system based on artificial intelligence, that was applied on the dataset of two real power stations: Angra1 Nuclear Power Plant and Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant. The proposed system processes all the information logged in the sequence of events before a shutdown signal using the expert's knowledge inputted into an expert system indicating the chain of events, from the shutdown signal to its root-cause. The results of both applications showed that the support system is a potential tool to help the control room operators identify abnormal events, as accidents and consequently increase the safety.

  4. Assessing accident phobia in mild traumatic brain injury: The Accident Fear Questionnaire.

    PubMed

    Sutherland, Jessica; Middleton, Jason; Ornstein, Tisha J; Lawson, Kerry; Vickers, Kristin

    2016-08-01

    Despite a documented prevalence of accident phobia in almost 40% of motor vehicle accident (MVA) survivors, the onset of accident phobia after traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains poorly understood. There is currently a body of knowledge about posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in patients with TBI, but less is known about accident phobia following TBI, particularly in cases of mild TBI (mTBI). Accident phobia can impede safe return to driving or motor vehicle travel, inhibiting return to daily functioning. In addition, pain complaints have been found to correlate positively with postinjury anxiety disorders. The present study sought to determine the reliability and validity of the Accident Fear Questionnaire (AFQ), a measure used to assess accident phobia, in 72 patients with mTBI using secondary data analysis and the subsequent development of accident phobia postinjury. Furthermore, we sought to examine the impact of pain, anxiety, and depression complaints on the AFQ. Results reveal convergent validity and reliability in mTBI populations. Additionally, pain, anxiety, and depression measures were significantly correlated with scores on the AFQ. Psychometrically, the phobia avoidance subscale of the AFQ is a reliable measure for use with mTBI populations, although some limitations were found. In particular, the accident profile (AP) subscale was not found to be reliable or valid and could be eliminated from the AFQ. Collectively, the present study contributes to the small body of published literature evaluating accident phobia in patients with mTBI and the impact of pain on the development of postinjury anxiety disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. Volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gehman, Harold W., Jr.; Barry, John L.; Deal, Duane W.; Hallock, James N.; Hess, Kenneth W.; Hubbard, G. Scott; Logsdon, John M.; Osheroff, Douglas D.; Ride, Sally K.; Tetrault, Roger E.

    2003-01-01

    The Columbia Accident Investigation Board's independent investigation into the tragic February 1, 2003, loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and its seven-member crew lasted nearly seven months and involved 13 Board members, approximately 120 Board investigators, and thousands of NASA and support personnel. Because the events that initiated the accident were not apparent for some time, the investigation's depth and breadth were unprecedented in NASA history. Further, the Board determined early in the investigation that it intended to put this accident into context. We considered it unlikely that the accident was a random event; rather, it was likely related in some degree to NASA's budgets, history, and program culture, as well as to the politics, compromises, and changing priorities of the democratic process. We are convinced that the management practices overseeing the Space Shuttle Program were as much a cause of the accident as the foam that struck the left wing. The Board was also influenced by discussions with members of Congress, who suggested that this nation needed a broad examination of NASA's Human Space Flight Program, rather than just an investigation into what physical fault caused Columbia to break up during re-entry. Findings and recommendations are in the relevant chapters and all recommendations are compiled in Chapter 11. Volume I is organized into four parts: The Accident; Why the Accident Occurred; A Look Ahead; and various appendices. To put this accident in context, Parts One and Two begin with histories, after which the accident is described and then analyzed, leading to findings and recommendations. Part Three contains the Board's views on what is needed to improve the safety of our voyage into space. Part Four is reference material. In addition to this first volume, there will be subsequent volumes that contain technical reports generated by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board and NASA, as well as volumes containing reference

  6. Analysis of traffic accidents in Romania, 2009.

    PubMed

    Călinoiu, Geovana; Minca, Dana Galieta; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia

    2012-01-01

    This paper aimed to underline the main consequences of traffic accidents in Romania 2009 and their associated causes or circumstances. We identified some problematic geographic areas, some critical months or moments of the day and also the most frequent causes; all these should become targets for the future planning. The current analysis provides some priority criteria for public health interventions. So, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Romania is far away from the average EU target for 2010 of halving the death by traffic accidents registered in 2001. To describe the circumstances and the consequences related to traffic accidents registered in Romania, for the year 2009. An ecological study was conducted. The traffic accidents circumstances were analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic space, time and cause. The consequences were analyzed as affected people and damaged cars. A total of 28,627 traffic accidents were registered in Romania during the year 2009. 2,796 people were killed and 27,968 were hospitalized and 42,443 cars were damaged. 3 of 4 accidents were caused by violations on behalf of the car drivers. Most common violations in car drivers were excess of speed and priority violations (52.4%). Among the pedestrians, 7 of 10 accidents were caused by illegal crossing. A higher number of accidents occurred during the summer months and during the evening hours (from 5.00 pm till 8.00 pm). The traffic accidents represent a real public health problem in Romania and a serious burden for the health system. The gap between Romania and the other EU member states needs to be diminished in the next decade. In this purpose, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Research is needed to understand the causes and the socio-economical impact of traffic accidents and to define appropriate national

  7. Development of an accident duration prediction model on the Korean Freeway Systems.

    PubMed

    Chung, Younshik

    2010-01-01

    Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents.

  8. Marine ecological risk assessment methods for radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Ye, Sufen; Zhang, Luoping; Feng, Huan

    2017-12-01

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool that can be used to analyze potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts. With the rapid development of nuclear power plants in coastal areas around the world, the establishment of approaches and methodologies for marine ERA with a focus on radiation accidents is an urgent requirement for marine environmental management. In this study, the approaches and methodologies for ERA pertaining to marine radiation accidents (MRA) are discussed and summarized with applications in case studies, such as the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, and a hypothetical accident in Daya Bay, China. The concepts of ERA and Risk Degree of ERA on MRA are defined for the first time to optimize the ERA system. The results of case studies show that the ERA approach and methodology for MRA are scientifically sound and effective in both the early and late stage of MRAs along with classic ERA Approach and the ERICA Integrated Approach. The results can be useful in the decision-making processes and the risk management at the beginning of accident as well as the ecological restoration after the accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The management of aircraft passenger survival in fire.

    PubMed

    Trimble, E J

    1996-12-31

    The prime factors influencing survivability from 10 major fire-related public transport aircraft accidents were assessed. Regulatory requirements were assessed against derived criteria and alternate concepts evaluated to identify a preferred strategy for enhanced survival; the provision of passenger protective breathing equipment (PPBE) was part of the twin strategy selected. PPBE tests conducted by the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch using lung simulators and semi-controlled complex challenge combustion atmospheres generated from defined mixtures of cabin interior materials indicated that Hopcalite filters could provide satisfactory protection against carbon monoxide, hydrogen cyanide, hydrogen fluoride, hydrogen chloride, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, ammonia, acrolein, and other hydrocarbon compounds, for periods up to 30 min. Filtered levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) could be maintained within a 5% limit (inhaled atmosphere + dead space) against such atmospheres containing up to 4% CO2. Concentrations of oxygen downstream from the filters were up to some 1.0% above that present in the challenge atmospheres. Separate lung simulator tests on breathable gas (oxygen) hoods indicated that satisfactory respiratory protection could be provided for periods of up to 31 min. A possible filter modification of the passenger oxygen mask concept is discussed. It is recommended that research should be emphasized on the development of a means (e.g. PPBE) for providing in-flight smoke protection for passengers.

  10. A new approach to road accident rescue.

    PubMed

    Morales, Alejandro; González-Aguilera, Diego; López, Alfonso I; Gutiérrez, Miguel A

    2016-01-01

    This article develops and validates a new methodology and tool for rescue assistance in traffic accidents, with the aim of improving its efficiency and safety in the evacuation of people, reducing the number of victims in road accidents. Different tests supported by professionals and experts have been designed under different circumstances and with different categories of damaged vehicles coming from real accidents and simulated trapped victims in order to calibrate and refine the proposed methodology and tool. To validate this new approach, a tool called App_Rescue has been developed. This tool is based on the use of a computer system that allows an efficient access to the technical information of the vehicle and sanitary information of the common passengers. The time spent during rescue using the standard protocol and the proposed method was compared. This rescue assistance system allows us to make vital information accessible in posttrauma care services, improving the effectiveness of interventions by the emergency services, reducing the rescue time and therefore minimizing the consequences involved and the number of victims. This could often mean saving lives. In the different simulated rescue operations, the rescue time has been reduced an average of 14%.

  11. Macroscopic and histopathological aspects of chemical damage to human tissues depending on the survival time.

    PubMed

    Amadasi, Alberto; Gentile, Guendalina; Rancati, Alessandra; Zoja, Riccardo

    2016-05-01

    The ingestion of corrosive substances is a widely treated topic in clinical and forensic practice, as an accidental event or as a consequence of voluntary assumption to commit suicide. However, thorough macroscopic and microscopic surveys focused on the correlation between the ingestion of the substance and different survival times have never been performed. Are the ingestion and the metabolism of the substance within the human tissues still recognizable? How could it be related to death? The study concerns a retrospective analysis on ten cases (two accidental, eight suicides) of lethal ingestion of different types of liquid caustic substances, without instant death and survival times ranging from 12 h to 6 months. For each case, a full autopsy and histological examination of the internal organs were performed. The results showed that the early direct effect of the substances is exerted mainly on the gastrointestinal tract, but as survival time increased, the metabolism of the substance exerted its effects in different target organs. When the cause of death was not directly linkable to the ingestion of the substance (i.e., related to cardiac stress, electrolyte disorders, pneumonia) and macroscopic findings were nonspecific, histological analyses allowed for providing crucial elements towards a link between death and assumption of the substance.

  12. Response rates and survival times for cats with lymphoma treated with the University of Wisconsin-Madison chemotherapy protocol: 38 cases (1996-2003).

    PubMed

    Milner, Rowan J; Peyton, Jamie; Cooke, Kirsten; Fox, Leslie E; Gallagher, Alexander; Gordon, Patti; Hester, Juli

    2005-10-01

    To determine response rates and survival times for cats with lymphoma treated with the University of Wisconsin-Madison chemotherapy protocol. Retrospective study. 38 cats with lymphoma. Medical records were reviewed, and information on age, sex, breed, FeLV and FIV infection status, anatomic form, clinical stage, and survival time was obtained. Immunophenotyping was not performed. Mean +/- SD age of the cats was 10.9 +/- 4.4 years. Overall median survival time was 210 days (interquartile range, 90 to 657 days), and overall duration of first remission was 156 days (interquartile range, 87 to 316 days). Age, sex, anatomic form, and clinical stage were not significantly associated with duration of first remission or survival time. Eighteen of the 38 (47%) cats had complete remission, 14 (37%) had partial remission, and 6 (16%) had no response. Duration of first remission was significantly longer for cats with complete remission (654 days) than for cats with partial remission (114 days). Median survival time for cats with complete remission (654 days) was significantly longer than median survival time for cats with partial remission (122 days) and for cats with no response (11 days). Results suggested that a high percentage of cats with lymphoma will respond to treatment with the University of Wisconsin-Madison chemotherapy protocol. Age, sex, anatomic form, and clinical stage were not significantly associated with duration of first response or survival time, but initial response to treatment was.

  13. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McMillan, Matthew T.; Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Ojerholm, Eric

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiationmore » therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.« less

  14. Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conroy, M.J.; Senar, J.C.; Domenech, J.

    2002-01-01

    We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins (Serinus serinus) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins (Carduelis spinus) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.

  15. Preventing accidents

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2005-08-01

    As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

  16. Prevalence of hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with colorectal cancer and their median survival time: A cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ahmadi, Ali; Mobasheri, Mahmoud; Hashemi-Nazari, Seyed Saeed; Baradaran, Azar; Choobini, Zahra Molavi

    2014-09-01

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension are worldwide epidemic. Association between DM and colon cancer was obtained in previous studies. Prevalence of DM and hypertension in the patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) has not been reported in Iran. The present study was aimed to investigate the prevalence of hypertension and type 2 DM and their effect on median survival time in patients with CRC. Overall, 2570 individual-year follow-ups were conducted for 1127 patients with CRC. For the diagnosis of type 2 DM, fasting blood sugar test and glycosylated hemoglobin test were used and for hypertension, blood pressure was measured in two turns. The descriptive indices were calculated, and the mean and median survival from CRC diagnosis time was calculated using survival analysis and a comparison among survival times was done through log-rank test. Stata software 12 (Stata Corp. 2011. Stata Statistical Software: Release 12. College Station, TX: Stata Corp LP) was used for data analysis. The prevalence of hypertension and type 2 DM in the patients with CRC was respectively 13.38% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.1-15.8) and 8.69% (95% CI: 7-10.7). Median survival time in patients with hypertension and DM were 8.52 and 4.9 years. According to log-rank test, no significant difference was observed between the survival time of CRC patients suffering from hypertension and diabetes type 2. The obtained findings in this study indicate that survival time in patients with type 2 DM less than hypertension but two metabolic diseases have the same effect on survival rate of the patients with CRC. Understanding the risk factors for CRC may guide the development of strategies targeted toward its prevention.

  17. Physician pilot-in-command fatal flight accidents, 1964 through 1970.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1971-03-01

    It was reported in 1966 that the prevalence of fatal aircraft accidents among physician pilots during 1964 and 1965 was four times that of general aviation pilots. There was a marked drop in the total number of fatal accidents among physician pilots ...

  18. Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

    PubMed

    Goh, Kelvin Chun Keong; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

    2014-04-01

    This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Emotional stress and traffic accidents: the impact of separation and divorce.

    PubMed

    Lagarde, Emmanuel; Chastang, Jean-François; Gueguen, Alice; Coeuret-Pellicer, Mireille; Chiron, Mireille; Lafont, Sylviane

    2004-11-01

    Personal responses to stressful life events are suspected of increasing the risk of serious traffic accidents. We analyzed data from a French cohort study (the GAZEL cohort), including a retrospective driving behavior questionnaire, from 13,915 participants (10,542 men age 52-62 years and 3373 women age 47-62 years in 2001). Follow-up data covered 1993-2000. Hazard ratios for serious accidents (n = 713) were computed by Cox's proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates. Separate analyses were also performed to consider only at-fault accidents. Marital separation or divorce was associated with an increased risk of a serious accident (all serious accidents: hazard ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval = 1.7-5.0; at-fault accidents: 4.4, 2.3-8.3). The impact of separation and divorce did not differ according to alcohol consumption levels. Other life events associated with increased risk of serious accident were a child leaving home (all accidents: 1.2, 0.97-1.6; at-fault accidents: 1.5, 1.1-2.1), an important purchase (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-1.7; at-fault accidents: 1.6, 1.2-2.1), and hospitalization of the partner (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-2.0). This study suggests that recent separation and divorce are associated with an increase in serious traffic accidents.

  20. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  1. Accident analysis of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yulianti, Yanti; Su'ud, Zaki; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2015-04-01

    Thorium has lately attracted considerable attention because it is accumulating as a by-product of large scale rare earth mining. The objective of research is to analyze transient behavior of a heavy water cooled thorium breeder that is designed by Tokai University and Tokyo Institute of Technology. That is oxide fueled, PWR type reactor with heavy water as primary coolant. An example of the optimized core has relatively small moderator to fuel volume ratio (MFR) of 0.6 and the characteristics of the core are burn-up of 67 GWd/t, breeding ratio of 1.08, burn-up reactivity loss during cycles of < 0.2% dk/k, and negative coolant reactivity coefficient. One of the nuclear reactor accidents types examined here is Unprotected Transient over Power (UTOP) due to withdrawing of the control rod that result in the positive reactivity insertion so that the reactor power will increase rapidly. Another accident type is Unprotected Loss of Flow (ULOF) that caused by failure of coolant pumps. To analyze the reactor accidents, neutron distribution calculation in the nuclear reactor is the most important factor. The best expression for the neutron distribution is the Boltzmann transport equation. However, solving this equation is very difficult so that the space-time diffusion equation is commonly used. Usually, space-time diffusion equation is solved by employing a point kinetics approach. However, this approach is less accurate for a spatially heterogeneous nuclear reactor and the nuclear reactor with quite large reactivity input. Direct method is therefore used to solve space-time diffusion equation which consider spatial factor in detail during nuclear reactor accident simulation. Set of equations that obtained from full implicit finite-difference method is solved by using iterative methods. The indication of UTOP accident is decreasing macroscopic absorption cross-section that results large external reactivity, and ULOF accident is indicated by decreasing coolant flow. The

  2. Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

    PubMed Central

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

  3. National disparities in treatment package time for resected locally advanced head and neck cancer and impact on overall survival.

    PubMed

    Guttmann, David M; Kobie, Julie; Grover, Surbhi; Lin, Alexander; Lukens, John N; Mitra, Nandita; Rhodes, Karin V; Feng, Weiwei; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

    2018-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine national disparities in head and neck cancer treatment package time (the time interval from surgery through the completion of radiation) and the associated impact on survival. We conducted an observational cohort study using the National Cancer Database of 15 234 patients with resected head and neck cancer who underwent adjuvant radiotherapy from 2004-2012. Predictors of prolonged package time were identified by multivariable linear regression. Survival outcomes were assessed using a multivariable Cox model. Mean package time was 100 days (SD 23). Package time was 7.52 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.23-8.81; P < .001) longer with Medicaid versus commercial insurance. Low income and African American race also predicted for longer package times. All-cause mortality increased an average of 4% with each 1 week increase in treatment package time (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04; 95% CI 1.03-1.05; P < .001). Significant national socioeconomic disparities exist in treatment package time. Treatment delays in this setting may contribute to worse survival outcomes. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. A study of carburetor/induction system icing in general aviation accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Obermayer, R. W.; Roe, W. T.

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the frequency and severity of carburetor/induction icing in general-aviation accidents was performed. The available literature and accident data from the National Transportation Safety Board were collected. A computer analysis of the accident data was performed. Between 65 and 90 accidents each year involve carburetor/induction system icing as a probable cause/factor. Under conditions conducive to carburetor/induction icing, between 50 and 70 percent of engine malfunction/failure accidents (exclusive of those due to fuel exhaustion) are due to carburetor/induction system icing. Since the evidence of such icing may not remain long after an accident, it is probable that the frequency of occurrence of such accidents is underestimated; therefore, some extrapolation of the data was conducted. The problem of carburetor/induction system icing is particularly acute for pilots with less than 1000 hours of total flying time. The severity of such accidents is about the same as any accident resulting from a forced landing or precautionary landing. About 144 persons, on the average, are exposed to death and injury each year in accidents involving carburetor/induction icing as a probable cause/factor.

  5. Time changes in radiocesium wash-off from various land uses after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Tsujimura, Maki; Wakiyama, Yoshifumi; Taniguchi, Keisuke; Sakaguchi, Aya; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

    2014-05-01

    A number of studies have been conducted to monitor and model the time series change of radiocesium transfer through aquatic systems after significant fallout, especially from the Chernobyl disaster. However, no data is available for the temporal changes of radiocesium concentration in environmental materials such as soil and water after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Our research team has been monitoring the environmental consequences of radioactive contamination just after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in Yamakiya-district, Kawamata town, Fukushima prefecture. Research items are listed below. 1. Radiocesium wash-off from the runoff-erosion plot under different land use. 2. Measurement of radiocesium transfer in forest environment, in association with hydrological pathways such as throughfall and overlandflow on hillslope. 3. Monitoring on radiocesium concentration in soil water, ground water, and spring water. 4. Monitoring of dissolved and particulate radiocesium concentration in river water, and stream water from the forested catchment. 5.Measurement of radiocesium content in drain water and suspended sediment from paddy field. Our monitoring result demonstrated that the Cs-137 concentration in eroded sediment from the runoff-erosion plot has been almost constant for the past 3 years, however the Cs-137 concentration of suspended sediment from the forested catchment showed slight decrease through time. On the other hand, the suspended sediment from paddy field and those in river water from large catchments exhibited rapid decrease in Cs-137 concentration with time. The decreasing trend of Cs-137 concentration were fitted by the two-component exponential model, differences in decreasing rate of the model were compared and discussed among various land uses and catchment scales. Such analysis can provide important insights into the future prediction of the radiocesium wash-off from catchments with different land uses.

  6. Strand V: Education for Survival. Safety Education. Health Curriculum Materials. Grades 7-9.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Secondary Curriculum Development.

    GRADES OR AGES: Grades 7-9. SUBJECT MATTER: Education for survival and safety education. ORGANIZATION AND PHYSICAL APPEARANCE: The guide is divided into eight sections: accident problems, safe behavior, safety in the home, safety in school, safety at work, safety in physical and recreational activities, safety in driving and walking, and safety in…

  7. Commuting by bike in Belgium, the costs of minor accidents.

    PubMed

    Aertsens, Joris; de Geus, Bas; Vandenbulcke, Grégory; Degraeuwe, Bart; Broekx, Steven; De Nocker, Leo; Liekens, Inge; Mayeres, Inge; Meeusen, Romain; Thomas, Isabelle; Torfs, Rudi; Willems, Hanny; Int Panis, Luc

    2010-11-01

    Minor bicycle accidents are defined as "bicycle accidents not involving death or heavily injured persons, implying that possible hospital visits last less than 24 hours". Statistics about these accidents and related injuries are very poor, because they are mostly not reported to police, hospitals or insurance companies. Yet, they form a major share of all bicycle accidents. Official registrations underestimate the number of minor accidents and do not provide cost data, nor the distance cycled. Therefore related policies are hampered by a lack of accurate data. This paper provides more insight into the importance of minor bicycle accidents and reports the frequency, risk and resulting costs of minor bicycle accidents. Direct costs, including the damage to bike and clothes as well as medical costs and indirect costs such as productivity loss and leisure time lost are calculated. We also estimate intangible costs of pain and psychological suffering and costs for other parties involved in the accident. Data were collected during the SHAPES project using several electronic surveys. The weekly prospective registration that lasted a year, covered 1187 persons that cycled 1,474,978 km. 219 minor bicycle accidents were reported. Resulting in a frequency of 148 minor bicycle accidents per million kilometres. We analyzed the economic costs related to 118 minor bicycle accidents in detail. The average total cost of these accidents is estimated at 841 euro (95% CI: 579-1205) per accident or 0.125 euro per kilometre cycled. Overall, productivity loss is the most important component accounting for 48% of the total cost. Intangible costs, which in past research were mostly neglected, are an important burden related to minor bicycle accidents (27% of the total cost). Even among minor accidents there are important differences in the total cost depending on the severity of the injury. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. [Nursing Care Sistematization: accident by Loxosceles gaucho].

    PubMed

    Kamimura, Helayne Mika; Paiva, Bianca Sakamoto Ribeiro; Ayres, Jairo Aparecido

    2009-01-01

    Experience report carried out at a university hospital involving a patient victimized by an accident with a spider of the Loxosceles gaucho genus. This type of accident can be classified as mild, moderate and severe, depending on the period of time elapsed between the occurrence of the accident and the moment of care provision. We aimed at applying nursing care systematization in a comprehensive and humanized manner. The following nursing diagnoses were established: acute pain, damaged skin integrity, risks for infection, constipation and low self-esteem. The therapeutic relationship favored student/patient interactions and enabled the recognition of the needs that deserved nursing interventions. The nursing process was a valuable instrument and provided important elements for the patient's daily development and planning adjustment by prioritizing care quality.

  9. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. Themore » second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.« less

  10. [Sports accidents: 1963-1973 statistics].

    PubMed

    Fasler, S

    1976-01-01

    Every year, the Swiss Accident Insurance Administration is paying a considerable amount of money for sports accidents. From 1963 to 1973 the number of these accidents has increased more markedly than other types of accidents. Different tendencies can be observed in the different types of sports: skiing accidents have, after a long period of retrogression until 1973, shown a noticeable augmentation again. Football accidents and accidents in other types of sports have on the other hand increased year by year. Mountaineering and aquatic sports often result in fatal accidents. The numerous preventive measures in skiing accidents have obviously been successful. Not only the fractures have decreased, but also the average number of days where sickness benefit was paid. Next to the traffic accidents, the skiing accidents are the most expensive ones. The nature of the healing cost in sports accidents has changed during the period from 1967 to 1972, depending on the different types of sports. In particular, hospital costs have changed considerably. The number of medical consultations per accident has decreased. Payment of sickness benefit has followed the development of the salaries on the one hand and the modifications of the number of lost days on the other. Finally, the costs of the annuities show more or less the same tendency as the ones for sickness benefit. A very gross estimation on the economical losses through sports accidents in Switzerland makes us believe that the direct and indirect costs actually amount to more than one thousand millions of Swiss Francs per year.

  11. Analytical measurements of fission products during a severe nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doizi, D.; Reymond la Ruinaz, S.; Haykal, I.; Manceron, L.; Perrin, A.; Boudon, V.; Vander Auwera, J.; tchana, F. Kwabia; Faye, M.

    2018-01-01

    The Fukushima accident emphasized the fact that ways to monitor in real time the evolution of a nuclear reactor during a severe accident remain to be developed. No fission products were monitored during twelve days; only dose rates were measured, which is not sufficient to carry out an online diagnosis of the event. The first measurements were announced with little reliability for low volatile fission products. In order to improve the safety of nuclear plants and minimize the industrial, ecological and health consequences of a severe accident, it is necessary to develop new reliable measurement systems, operating at the earliest and closest to the emission source of fission products. Through the French program ANR « Projet d'Investissement d'Avenir », the aim of the DECA-PF project (diagnosis of core degradation from fission products measurements) is to monitor in real time the release of the major fission products (krypton, xenon, gaseous forms of iodine and ruthenium) outside the nuclear reactor containment. These products are released at different times during a nuclear accident and at different states of the nuclear core degradation. Thus, monitoring these fission products gives information on the situation inside the containment and helps to apply the Severe Accident Management procedures. Analytical techniques have been proposed and evaluated. The results are discussed here.

  12. Farm accidents in children.

    PubMed Central

    Cameron, D.; Bishop, C.; Sibert, J. R.

    1992-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To examine the problem of accidental injury to children on farms. DESIGN--Prospective county based study of children presenting to accident and emergency departments over 12 months with injuries sustained in a farm setting and nationwide review of fatal childhood farm accidents over the four years April 1986 to March 1990. SETTING--Accident and emergency departments in Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, Haverfordwest, and Llanelli and fatal accidents in England, Scotland, and Wales notified to the Health and Safety Executive register. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 16. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death or injury after farm related accidents. RESULTS--65 accidents were recorded, including 18 fractures. Nine accidents necessitated admission to hospital for a mean of two (range one to four) days. 13 incidents were related to tractors and other machinery; 24 were due to falls. None of these incidents were reported under the statutory notification scheme. 33 deaths were notified, eight related to tractors and allied machinery and 10 related to falling objects. CONCLUSIONS--Although safety is improving, the farm remains a dangerous environment for children. Enforcement of existing safety legislation with significant penalties and targeting of safety education will help reduce accident rates further. PMID:1638192

  13. The Application of Extended Cox Proportional Hazard Method for Estimating Survival Time of Breast Cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husain, Hartina; Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Tahir, Sulaiha; Mukhlisin, Ahmad; Mirna Apriani, M.

    2018-03-01

    Breast cancer is one type of cancer that is the leading cause of death worldwide. This study aims to model the factors that affect the survival time and rate of cure of breast cancer patients. The extended cox model, which is a modification of the proportional hazard cox model in which the proportional hazard assumptions are not met, is used in this study. The maximum likelihood estimation approach is used to estimate the parameters of the model. This method is then applied to medical record data of breast cancer patient in 2011-2016, which is taken from Hasanuddin University Education Hospital. The results obtained indicate that the factors that affect the survival time of breast cancer patients are malignancy and leukocyte levels.

  14. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

    2015-01-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the

  15. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Daniel P; Dreitz, Victoria J; Heisey, Dennis M

    2015-02-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the

  16. Decrease of morbidity in road traffic accidents in a high income country - an analysis of 24,405 accidents in a 21 year period.

    PubMed

    Ernstberger, Antonio; Joeris, Alexander; Daigl, Monica; Kiss, Miklos; Angerpointner, Katharina; Nerlich, Michael; Schmucker, Uli

    2015-10-01

    The WHO initiated the "Decade of Action for Road Safety" because the fatality on road traffic accidents could become the fifth leading cause of death in 2030. On the contrary, fatalities continue to decrease in high income countries. The aim of the study was to find evidence for changes in injury severity of passenger car occupants after road traffic accidents in Germany over time, and to find contributing factors. Data from the German In Depth Accident Study (GIDAS), representative for Germany, was used. A total of 24.405 accidents, reported from 1991 until 2011. 44.503 adult passenger car occupants were examined. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to find reasons for observed trends over time. The relative decrease in mortality was 68.8% from 1991 until 2011. Between 2006 and 2011, the percentage of severely injured traffic victims was less than half, both in terms of the whole body and individual body regions. For injuries with an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥ 2, the percentage of persons with lower leg injuries declined by 72.5%, followed by the percentage of persons with pelvic injuries (61.5%), upper extremity injuries (57.7%), head injuries (54.3%), thorax injuries (50.0%), and abdomen injuries (40.0%). The multivariable regression model found 13 independent variables associated with injury prevention (e.g. seat belt use: OR 0.41, CI 95% 0.32-0.49; airbag: OR 0.86, CI 95% 0.75-0.99). The implementation of protective factors increased over time while accident constellations with a high probability for severe injury decreased over time. The decrease of severe injuries after road traffic accidents can be only attributed to a comprehensive approach including the enforcement of road safety policies and innovations in car engineering and emergency medicine. Traffic related measures and alcohol level control, and seat belt usage enforcement next to other technical advances are considered especially important. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd

  17. Longitudinal Mediation Analysis with Time-varying Mediators and Exposures, with Application to Survival Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the effect of a time-varying exposure mediated by a time-varying intermediate variable. We consider general longitudinal settings, including survival outcomes. At a given time point, the exposure and mediator of interest are influenced by past covariates, mediators and exposures, and affect future covariates, mediators and exposures. Right censoring, if present, occurs in response to past history. To address the challenges in mediation analysis that are unique to these settings, we propose a formulation in terms of random interventions based on conditional distributions for the mediator. This formulation, in particular, allows for well-defined natural direct and indirect effects in the survival setting, and natural decomposition of the standard total effect. Upon establishing identifiability and the corresponding statistical estimands, we derive the efficient influence curves and establish their robustness properties. Applying Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation, we use these efficient influence curves to construct multiply robust and efficient estimators. We also present an inverse probability weighted estimator and a nested non-targeted substitution estimator for these parameters. PMID:29387520

  18. French policy for managing the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Gallay, F; Godet, J L; Niel, J C

    2015-06-01

    In 2005, at the request of the French Government, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) established a Steering Committee for the Management of the Post-Accident Phase of a Nuclear Accident or a Radiological Emergency, with the objective of establishing a policy framework. Under the supervision of ASN, this Committee, involving several tens of experts from different backgrounds (e.g. relevant ministerial offices, expert agencies, local information commissions around nuclear installations, non-governmental organisations, elected officials, licensees, and international experts), developed a number of recommendations over a 7-year period. First published in November 2012, these recommendations cover the immediate post-emergency situation, and the transition and longer-term periods of the post-accident phase in the case of medium-scale nuclear accidents causing short-term radioactive release (less than 24 h) that might occur at French nuclear facilities. They also apply to actions to be undertaken in the event of accidents during the transportation of radioactive materials. These recommendations are an important first step in preparation for the management of a post-accident situation in France in the case of a nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

  19. Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Andrews, Nathan C.; Gauntt, Randall O.

    Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of themore » of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion

  20. The Chernobyl accident, congenital anomalies and other reproductive outcomes.

    PubMed

    Little, J

    1993-04-01

    Studies of the association between the Chernobyl accident in April 1986 and reproductive outcome, with particular reference to congenital anomalies, are reviewed. All of the studies so far have been based on the detection of a change in frequency over time. An increased frequency of trisomy 21 in the former West Berlin in January 1987, and increases in the frequency of neural tube defects in several small hospital-based series in Turkey, are not confirmed in larger and more representative series in Europe. No clear changes in the prevalence at birth of anomalies which might be associated with the accident are apparent in Byelorussia or the Ukraine, the republics with the highest exposure to fallout. However, these data are difficult to interpret as the methods of acquisition have not been described and they have not yet been reported in full. Thus, there is no consistent evidence of a detrimental physical effect of the Chernobyl accident on congenital anomalies. This is also the case for other measured outcomes of pregnancy. There is evidence of indirect effects--an increase in induced abortions substantial enough to show as a reduction in total births, due to anxieties created. Data are not available on the reproductive outcomes of women pregnant at the time of the accident who were evacuated from the 30 km zone of immediate contamination, of workers in the plant at the time of the accident or of decontamination workers. Moreover, no data are available from several of the other countries closest to the Chernobyl area.

  1. Frozen in Time? Microbial strategies for survival and carbon metabolism over geologic time in a Pleistocene permafrost chronosequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackelprang, R.; Douglas, T. A.; Waldrop, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost soils have received tremendous interest due to their importance as a global carbon store with the potential to be thawed over the coming centuries. Instead of being 'frozen in time,' permafrost contains active microbes. Most metagenomic studies have focused on Holocene aged permafrost. Here, we target Pleistocene aged ice and carbon rich permafrost (Yedoma), which can differ in carbon content and stage of decay. Our aim was to understand how microbes in the permafrost transform organic matter over geologic time and to identify physiological and biochemical adaptations that enable long-term survival. We used next-generation sequencing to characterize microbial communities along a permafrost age gradient. Samples were collected from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Permafrost Tunnel near Fox, AK, which penetrates a hillside providing access to permafrost ranging in age from 12 to 40 kyr. DNA was extracted directly from unthawed samples. 16S rRNA amplicon (16S) and shotgun metagenome sequencing revealed significant age-driven differences. First, microbial diversity declines with permafrost age, likely due to long-term exposure to environmental stresses and a reduction in metabolic resources. Second, we observed taxonomic differences among ages, with an increasing abundance of Firmicutes (endospore-formers) in older samples, suggesting that dormancy is a common survival strategy in older permafrost. Ordination of 16S and metagenome data revealed age-based clustering. Genes differing significantly between age categories included those involved in lipopolysaccharide assembly, cold-response, and carbon processing. These data point to the physiological adaptations to long-term frozen conditions and to the metabolic processes utilized in ancient permafrost. In fact, a gene common in older samples is involved in cadaverine production, which could potentially explain the putrefied smell of Pleistocene aged permafrost. Coupled with soil

  2. Impact of collaborative care on survival time for dogs with congestive heart failure and revenue for attending primary care veterinarians.

    PubMed

    Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone.

  3. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affectmore » reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).« less

  4. Occupant Injury Severity and Accident Causes in Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (1983-2014).

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D; Macchiarella, Nickolas D

    2016-01-01

    Helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) transport critically ill patients to/between emergency care facilities and operate in a hazardous environment: the destination site is often encumbered with obstacles, difficult to visualize at night, and lack instrument approaches for degraded visibility. The study objectives were to determine 1) HEMS accident rates and causes; 2) occupant injury severity profiles; and 3) whether accident aircraft were certified to the more stringent crashworthiness standards implemented two decades ago. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database was used to identify HEMS mishaps for the years spanning 1983-2014. Contingency tables (Pearson Chi-square or Fisher's exact test) were used to determine differences in proportions. A generalized linear model (Poisson distribution) was used to determine if accident rates differed over time. While the HEMS accident rate decreased by 71% across the study period, the fraction of fatal accidents (36-50%) and the injury severity profiles were unchanged. None of the accident aircraft fully satisfied the current crashworthiness standards. Failure to clear obstacles and visual-to-instrument flight, the most frequent accident causes (37 and 26%, respectively), showed a downward trend, whereas accidents ascribed to aircraft malfunction showed an upward trend over time. HEMS operators should consider updating their fleet to the current, more stringent crashworthiness standards in an attempt to reduce injury severity. Additionally, toward further mitigating accidents ascribed to inadvertent visual-to-instrument conditions, HEMS aircraft should be avionics-equipped for instrument flight rules flight.

  5. Analysis of accidents in nine Iranian gas refineries: 2007-2011.

    PubMed

    Mehrdad, R; Bolouri, A; Shakibmanesh, A R

    2013-10-01

    Occupational accidents are one of the major health hazards in industries and associated with high mortality, morbidity, spiritual damage and economic losses in the world. To determine the incidence of occupational accidents in 9 Iranian gas refineries between March 2007 and February 2011. Data on all occupational accidents occurred between March 2007 and February 2011, as well as other possible associated variables including time of accident, whether the accident was due to a personal or systemic fault, type of accident and its outcomes, age and gender of the victim, the injured parts of the body, job experience, and type of employment, were extracted from HSE reports and notes of health care services. Based on these data, we calculated the incidence rate of accidents and assessed the associated factors. During the 5 studied years, 1129 accidents have been recorded. The incidence of fatal accidents was 1.64 per 100 000 and of nonfatal accidents was 1857 per 100 000 workers per year. 99.4% of injured workers were male. The mean±SD age of injured people was 29.6±7.3 years. Almost 70% of injured workers aged under 30 years. The mean±SD job experience was 5.3±5.3 years. Accidents occurred more commonly around 10:00. More than 60% of accidents happened between 8:00 and 15:00. July had the highest incidence rate. The most common type of accident was being struck by an object (48%). More than 94% of accidents are caused by personal rather than systemic faults. Hands and wrists were the most common injured parts and involved in more than one-third of accidents. 70% of injured workers needed medical treatment and returned to work after primary treatment. The pattern of occupational accidents in Iranian gas refineries is similar to other previous reports in many ways. The incidence did not change significantly over the study period. Establishment of an online network for precise registration, notification and meticulous data collection seems necessary.

  6. Family presence preference when patients are receiving resuscitation in an accident and emergency department.

    PubMed

    Hung, Maria S Y; Pang, Samantha M C

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a report of a study to illuminate the experience of family members whose relatives survived the resuscitation in an accident and emergency department, and their preferences with regard to being present. Family presence during resuscitation can offer benefits to both patient and family members, and large healthcare organizations support and recommend offering the option for their presence. However, many staff believe that this is too distressing or traumatic for families and that they would interfere with the resuscitation process. An interpretive phenomenological approach was used to collect data in 2007-2008 with 18 family members of patients who survived life-sustaining interventions in an accident and emergency department in Hong Kong. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim for thematic analysis and verified with the participants in second interviews. None of the family members was present in resuscitation room during the life-sustaining interventions, and five entered the room after the patients' condition was stable. The majority indicated a strong preference to be present if given the option. Three interrelated themes emerged: (i) emotional connectedness, (ii) knowing the patient, and (iii) perceived (in)appropriateness, with 10 subthemes representing affective, rational and contextual determinants of family presence preferences. The interplay of these determinants and how they contributed to strong or weak preference for family presence was analysed. Variations among the contributing determinants to each family member's preference to be present were revealed. Appropriate nursing interventions, policy and guidelines should be developed to meet individualized needs during such critical and life-threatening moments in accident and emergency departments. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. An Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Joni K.

    2013-01-01

    The focal point of the study reported here was the definition and examination of turbulence, wind shear and thunderstorm in relation to aviation accidents. NASA project management desired this information regarding distinct subgroups of atmospheric hazards, in order to better focus their research portfolio. A seven category expansion of Kaplan's turbulence categories was developed, which included wake turbulence, mountain wave turbulence, clear air turbulence, cloud turbulence, convective turbulence, thunderstorm without mention of turbulence, and low altitude wind shear, microburst or turbulence (with no mention of thunderstorms).More than 800 accidents from flights based in the United States during 1987-2008 were selected from a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database. Accidents were selected for inclusion in this study if turbulence, thunderstorm, wind shear or microburst was considered either a cause or a factor in the accident report, and each accident was assigned to only one hazard category. This report summarizes the differences between the categories in terms of factors such as flight operations category, aircraft engine type, the accident's geographic location and time of year, degree of injury to aircraft occupants, aircraft damage, age and certification of the pilot and the phase of flight at the time of the accident.

  8. Prediction accident triangle in maintenance of underground mine facilities using Poisson distribution analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khuluqi, M. H.; Prapdito, R. R.; Sambodo, F. P.

    2018-04-01

    In Indonesia, mining is categorized as a hazardous industry. In recent years, a dramatic increase of mining equipment and technological complexities had resulted in higher maintenance expectations that accompanied by the changes in the working conditions, especially on safety. Ensuring safety during the process of conducting maintenance works in underground mine is important as an integral part of accident prevention programs. Accident triangle has provided a support to safety practitioner to draw a road map in preventing accidents. Poisson distribution is appropriate for the analysis of accidents at a specific site in a given time period. Based on the analysis of accident statistics in the underground mine maintenance of PT. Freeport Indonesia from 2011 through 2016, it is found that 12 minor accidents for 1 major accident and 66 equipment damages for 1 major accident as a new value of accident triangle. The result can be used for the future need for improving the accident prevention programs.

  9. Driving behaviors and on-duty road accidents: a French case-control study.

    PubMed

    Fort, Emmanuel; Chiron, Mireille; Davezies, Philippe; Bergeret, Alain; Charbotel, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    A case-control study was carried out to identify driving behaviors associated with the risk of on-duty road accident and to compare driving behaviors according to the type of journey (on duty, commuting, and private) for on-duty road accident victims. Cases were recruited from the Rhône Road Trauma Registry between January 2004 and October 2005 and were on duty at the time of the accident. Control subjects were recruited from the electoral rolls of the case subjects' constituencies of residence. Cases' and controls' driving behavior data were collected by self-administered questionnaire. A logistic regression was performed to identify behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents, taking into account age, sex, place of residence, road accident risk exposure, socio-occupational category, and type of road user. A second analysis focused specifically on the case subjects, comparing their self-assessed usual behaviors according to the type of journey. Significant factors for multivariate analysis of on-duty road accidents were female gender, history of on-duty road accidents during the previous 10 years, severe time pressure at work, and driving a vehicle not belonging to the driver. On-duty road accident victims reported behavioral risk factors more frequently in relation to driving for work than driving for private reasons or commuting: nonsystematic seat belt use, cell phone use at least once daily while driving, and history of accidents with injury during the previous 10 years. This study provides knowledge on behavioral risk factors for on-duty road accidents and differences in behavior according to the type of journey for subjects who have been on-duty road accident victims. These results will be useful for the design of on-duty road risk prevention.

  10. Effects of time interval between primary melanoma excision and sentinel node biopsy on positivity rate and survival.

    PubMed

    Oude Ophuis, Charlotte M C; van Akkooi, Alexander C J; Rutkowski, Piotr; Voit, Christiane A; Stepniak, Joanna; Erler, Nicole S; Eggermont, Alexander M M; Wouters, Michel W J M; Grünhagen, Dirk J; Verhoef, Cornelis Kees

    2016-11-01

    Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is essential for adequate melanoma staging. Most melanoma guidelines advocate to perform wide local excision and SNB as soon as possible, causing time pressure. To investigate the role of time interval between melanoma diagnosis and SNB on sentinel node (SN) positivity and survival. This is a retrospective observational study concerning a cohort of melanoma patients from four European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Melanoma Group tertiary referral centres from 1997 to 2013. A total of 4124 melanoma patients underwent SNB. Patients were selected if date of diagnosis and follow-up (FU) information were available, and SNB was performed in <180 d. A total of 3546 patients were included. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to investigate how baseline characteristics and time interval until SNB are related to positivity rate, disease-free survival (DFS) and melanoma-specific survival (MSS). Median time interval was 43 d (interquartile range [IQR] 29-60 d), and 705 (19.9%) of 3546 patients had a positive SN. Sentinel node positivity was equal for early surgery (≤43 d) versus late surgery (>43 d): 19.7% versus 20.1% (p = 0.771). Median FU was 50 months (IQR 24-84 months). Sentinel node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.53-3.97), ulceration (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.58-2.51), Breslow thickness (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.08), and male gender (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.26-1.98) (all p < 0.00001) were independently associated with worse MSS and DFS; time interval was not. No effect of time interval between melanoma diagnosis and SNB on 5-year survival or SN positivity rate was found for a time interval of up to 3 months. This information can be used to counsel patients and remove strict time limits from melanoma guidelines. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Determinants of the relationship between cost and survival time after elective adult cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Ho, K M

    2014-05-01

    Cardiac surgery is increasingly performed on elderly patients with multiple comorbid conditions, but the determinants of the relationship between cost and survival time after cardiac surgery for patients with a serious cardiac condition remain uncertain. Using the long-term outcome data of a cohort study on adult cardiac surgical patients, the relationship between cost and survival time after cardiac surgery from a hospital service perspective was determined. The total cost for each patient was estimated by the costs of the surgical procedures, intra-aortic balloon pump utilisation, operating theatre utilisation, blood products, intensive care unit stay and cumulative hospital stay up to a median follow-up time of 30 months. Of the 2131 patients considered in this study, a total cost >A$100,000 per life-year after cardiac surgery was observed only in 171 patients (8.0%, 95% confidence interval 6.9 to 9.3%). Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index and EuroSCORE were all related to the cost per life-year after cardiac surgery, but EuroSCORE (odds ratio 1.26 per score increment, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.35, P=0.001) was, by far, the most important determinant and explained 32% of the variability in cost per life-year after cardiac surgery. Patients with a high EuroSCORE were associated with a substantially longer length of intensive care unit stay and cumulative hospital stay, as well as a shorter survival time after cardiac surgery compared to patients with a lower EuroSCORE. Of all the subgroups of patients examined, only patients with a EuroSCORE >5 were consistently associated with a cost >A$100,000 per life-year (cost per life-year $183,148, 95% confidence interval 125, 394 to 240, 902).

  12. [Morbidity caused by industrial accidents in a health zone].

    PubMed

    Cruzado Quevedo, J; Sánchez Sánchez, J A; Lázaro Gómez, M J; Moreno Pina, J P; Alvarez Orcajada, M J; Cazorla González, M A

    1992-05-01

    The aim of the present study is to discover the morbidity produced by workplace accidents among the earning population of Molina de Segura Health Area. This was a descriptive crossover study. Site. The study was carried out in the Primary Care framework, in the Molina de Segura Health Area and with the collaboration of the Labour Health Unit of Insalud-Murcia. Over a year a total of 774 cases of time off work due to workplace accidents, out of a total of 9,302 workers, were examined. 679 cases of workers resident in Molina de Segura were included in the study, whose time-off dates fell between July 1, 1989 and June 30, 1990 and where the company for which they worked was based or had its trading name located in Molina. Of the total cases of time off work studied, 539 (79.4%) were men and 140 (20.6%) were women. The pathologies most often found were "blows, bruisings and crushings" (22.8%), "wounds and cuts" (16.8%), "back pain" (10.5%), "strains" (9.4%) and "fractures" (4.5%). A statistically significant association was found between being "a man" and "back pain"; and "a woman" and "sprains". The predominant pathologies among workplace accidents are of a less serious nature. Some pathologies owing to workplace accidents are mistakenly referred to the health services as ordinary illness. There is insufficient compliance by health professionals with filling in the forms for time off work and return to work.

  13. Survival Time of Cross-Match Incompatible Red Blood Cells in Adult Horses.

    PubMed

    Tomlinson, J E; Taberner, E; Boston, R C; Owens, S D; Nolen-Walston, R D

    2015-01-01

    There is a markedly reduced half-life of transfused RBCs when donor and recipient cats or humans are cross-match incompatible. Only 10-20% of horses have naturally occurring alloantibodies. Therefore, cross-match testing before blood transfusion is not always performed. Cross-match incompatibility predicts shortened RBC survival time as compared to that of compatible or autologous blood. Twenty healthy adult horses. Prospective trial. Blood type, anti-RBC antibody screen (before and 1 month after transfusion) and major and minor cross-match determined 10 donor-recipient pairs. Two pairs were cross-match compatible, the remainder incompatible. Donor blood (4 L) was collected into citrate phosphate dextrose adenine-1, labeled with NHS-biotin, and transfused into recipients. Samples were collected at 1 hour and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 14, 21, 28, and 35 days after transfusion, and biotinylated RBCs were detected by flow cytometry. Horses were monitored for transfusion reaction during transfusion and daily for 5 days. Cross-match incompatibility was significantly associated with decreased RBC survival time (P < .001). The half-life of transfused incompatible (cross-match >1+) allogenic equine RBCs was 4.7 (95% CI, 3.2-6.2) days versus 33.5 (24-43) days for compatible pairings. Cross-match incompatibility was associated with acute febrile transfusion reaction (P = .0083). At day 30, only 1 horse had developed novel anti-RBC antibodies. Cross-match incompatibility was predictive of febrile transfusion reaction and shortened transfused RBC survival, but did not result in production of anti-RBC antibodies at 30 days. Cross-match testing before transfusion is recommended. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  14. Survival times with and without tube feeding in patients with dementia or psychiatric diseases in Japan.

    PubMed

    Takayama, Keiko; Hirayama, Keisuke; Hirao, Akihiko; Kondo, Keiko; Hayashi, Hideki; Kadota, Koichi; Asaba, Hiroyuki; Ishizu, Hideki; Nakata, Kenji; Kurisu, Kairi; Oshima, Etsuko; Yokota, Osamu; Yamada, Norihito; Terada, Seishi

    2017-11-01

    It is widely supposed that there has been no evidence of increased survival in patients with advanced dementia receiving enteral tube feeding. However, more than a few studies have reported no harmful outcome from tube feeding in dementia patients compared to in patients without dementia. This was a retrospective study. Nine psychiatric hospitals in Okayama Prefecture participated in this survey. All inpatients fulfilling the entry criteria were evaluated. All subjects suffered from difficulty with oral intake. Attending physicians thought that the patients could not live without long-term artificial nutrition. The physicians decided whether to make use of long-term artificial nutrition between January 2012 and December 2014. We evaluated 185 patients. Their mean age was 76.6 ± 11.4 years. Of all subjects, patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 78) formed the biggest group, schizophrenia patients (n = 44) the second, and those with vascular dementia (n = 30) the third. The median survival times were 711 days for patients with tube feeding and 61 days for patients without tube feeding. In a comparison different types of tube feeding, median survival times were 611 days for patients with a nasogastric tube and more than 1000 days for those with a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube. Patients with tube feeding survived longer than those without tube feeding, even among dementia patients. This study suggests that enteral nutrition for patients with dementia prolongs survival. Additionally, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube feeding may be safer than nasogastric tube feeding among patients in psychiatric hospitals. © 2017 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  15. 49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

  16. 49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

  17. 49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

  18. 49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

  19. 49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

  20. Scientific aspects of the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koketsu, Kazuki

    2016-04-01

    We investigated the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and assessments conducted beforehand for earthquake and tsunami potential in the Pacific offshore region of the Tohoku District. The results of our investigation show that all the assessments failed to foresee the earthquake and its related tsunami, which was the main cause of the accident. Therefore, the disaster caused by the earthquake, and the accident were scientifically unforeseeable at the time. However, for a zone neighboring the reactors, a 2008 assessment showed tsunamis higher than the plant height. As a lesson learned from the accident, companies operating nuclear power plants should be prepared using even such assessment results for neighboring zones.

  1. End points for adjuvant therapy trials: has the time come to accept disease-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival?

    PubMed

    Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel

    2006-06-01

    The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed.

  2. An influential factor for external radiation dose estimation for residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident-time spent outdoors for residents in Iitate Village.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Yasumura, Seiji; Ohtsuru, Akira; Sakai, Akira; Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Sakata, Ritsu; Ozasa, Kotaro; Hayashi, Masayuki; Ohira, Tetsuya; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi

    2016-06-01

    Many studies have been conducted on radiation doses to residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. Time spent outdoors is an influential factor for external dose estimation. Since little information was available on actual time spent outdoors for residents, different values of average time spent outdoors per day have been used in dose estimation studies on the FDNPP accident. The most conservative value of 24 h was sometimes used, while 2.4 h was adopted for indoor workers in the UNSCEAR 2013 report. Fukushima Medical University has been estimating individual external doses received by residents as a part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey by collecting information on the records of moves and activities (the Basic Survey) after the accident from each resident. In the present study, these records were analyzed to estimate an average time spent outdoors per day. As an example, in Iitate Village, its arithmetic mean was 2.08 h (95% CI: 1.64-2.51) for a total of 170 persons selected from respondents to the Basic Survey. This is a much smaller value than commonly assumed. When 2.08 h is used for the external dose estimation, the dose is about 25% (23-26% when using the above 95% CI) less compared with the dose estimated for the commonly used value of 8 h.

  3. Chaotic dynamics of Comet 1P/Halley: Lyapunov exponent and survival time expectancy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz-Gutiérrez, M. A.; Reyes-Ruiz, M.; Pichardo, B.

    2015-03-01

    The orbital elements of Comet Halley are known to a very high precision, suggesting that the calculation of its future dynamical evolution is straightforward. In this paper we seek to characterize the chaotic nature of the present day orbit of Comet Halley and to quantify the time-scale over which its motion can be predicted confidently. In addition, we attempt to determine the time-scale over which its present day orbit will remain stable. Numerical simulations of the dynamics of test particles in orbits similar to that of Comet Halley are carried out with the MERCURY 6.2 code. On the basis of these we construct survival time maps to assess the absolute stability of Halley's orbit, frequency analysis maps to study the variability of the orbit, and we calculate the Lyapunov exponent for the orbit for variations in initial conditions at the level of the present day uncertainties in our knowledge of its orbital parameters. On the basis of our calculations of the Lyapunov exponent for Comet Halley, the chaotic nature of its motion is demonstrated. The e-folding time-scale for the divergence of initially very similar orbits is approximately 70 yr. The sensitivity of the dynamics on initial conditions is also evident in the self-similarity character of the survival time and frequency analysis maps in the vicinity of Halley's orbit, which indicates that, on average, it is unstable on a time-scale of hundreds of thousands of years. The chaotic nature of Halley's present day orbit implies that a precise determination of its motion, at the level of the present-day observational uncertainty, is difficult to predict on a time-scale of approximately 100 yr. Furthermore, we also find that the ejection of Halley from the Solar system or its collision with another body could occur on a time-scale as short as 10 000 yr.

  4. Urban pedestrian accident countermeasures experimental evaluation. Volume 2, Accident studies

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1975-02-01

    A pedestrian accident data collection system was established in six major cities. The system involved using the regular police accident report form and a specifically designed supplementary data form. The information on the forms was combined, and th...

  5. Relationship between Recent Flight Experience and Pilot Error General Aviation Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nilsson, Sarah J.

    Aviation insurance agents and fixed-base operation (FBO) owners use recent flight experience, as implied by the 90-day rule, to measure pilot proficiency in physical airplane skills, and to assess the likelihood of a pilot error accident. The generally accepted premise is that more experience in a recent timeframe predicts less of a propensity for an accident, all other factors excluded. Some of these aviation industry stakeholders measure pilot proficiency solely by using time flown within the past 90, 60, or even 30 days, not accounting for extensive research showing aeronautical decision-making and situational awareness training decrease the likelihood of a pilot error accident. In an effort to reduce the pilot error accident rate, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has seen the need to shift pilot training emphasis from proficiency in physical airplane skills to aeronautical decision-making and situational awareness skills. However, current pilot training standards still focus more on the former than on the latter. The relationship between pilot error accidents and recent flight experience implied by the FAA's 90-day rule has not been rigorously assessed using empirical data. The intent of this research was to relate recent flight experience, in terms of time flown in the past 90 days, to pilot error accidents. A quantitative ex post facto approach, focusing on private pilots of single-engine general aviation (GA) fixed-wing aircraft, was used to analyze National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident investigation archival data. The data were analyzed using t-tests and binary logistic regression. T-tests between the mean number of hours of recent flight experience of tricycle gear pilots involved in pilot error accidents (TPE) and non-pilot error accidents (TNPE), t(202) = -.200, p = .842, and conventional gear pilots involved in pilot error accidents (CPE) and non-pilot error accidents (CNPE), t(111) = -.271, p = .787, indicate there is no

  6. Survived ileocecal blowout from compressed air.

    PubMed

    Weber, Marco; Kolbus, Frank; Dressler, Jan; Lessig, Rüdiger

    2011-03-01

    Industrial accidents with compressed air entering the gastro-intestinal tract often run fatally. The pressures usually over-exceed those used by medical applications such as colonoscopy and lead to vast injuries of the intestines with high mortality. The case described in this report is of a 26-year-old man who was harmed by compressed air that entered through the anus. He survived because of fast emergency operation. This case underlines necessity of explicit instruction considering hazards handling compressed air devices to maintain safety at work. Further, our observations support the hypothesis that the mucosa is the most elastic layer of the intestine wall.

  7. Accident analysis of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yulianti, Yanti; Su’ud, Zaki; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2015-04-16

    Thorium has lately attracted considerable attention because it is accumulating as a by-product of large scale rare earth mining. The objective of research is to analyze transient behavior of a heavy water cooled thorium breeder that is designed by Tokai University and Tokyo Institute of Technology. That is oxide fueled, PWR type reactor with heavy water as primary coolant. An example of the optimized core has relatively small moderator to fuel volume ratio (MFR) of 0.6 and the characteristics of the core are burn-up of 67 GWd/t, breeding ratio of 1.08, burn-up reactivity loss during cycles of < 0.2% dk/k,more » and negative coolant reactivity coefficient. One of the nuclear reactor accidents types examined here is Unprotected Transient over Power (UTOP) due to withdrawing of the control rod that result in the positive reactivity insertion so that the reactor power will increase rapidly. Another accident type is Unprotected Loss of Flow (ULOF) that caused by failure of coolant pumps. To analyze the reactor accidents, neutron distribution calculation in the nuclear reactor is the most important factor. The best expression for the neutron distribution is the Boltzmann transport equation. However, solving this equation is very difficult so that the space-time diffusion equation is commonly used. Usually, space-time diffusion equation is solved by employing a point kinetics approach. However, this approach is less accurate for a spatially heterogeneous nuclear reactor and the nuclear reactor with quite large reactivity input. Direct method is therefore used to solve space-time diffusion equation which consider spatial factor in detail during nuclear reactor accident simulation. Set of equations that obtained from full implicit finite-difference method is solved by using iterative methods. The indication of UTOP accident is decreasing macroscopic absorption cross-section that results large external reactivity, and ULOF accident is indicated by decreasing coolant flow

  8. Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

    PubMed

    Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

    2013-06-01

    Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

  9. Best practices to reduce the accident rate hotel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Revilla, M. R.; Kahale Carrillo, D. T.

    2014-10-01

    Examining the available databases and existing tourism organizations can conclude that appear studies on accidents and their relationship with other variables. But in our case we want to assess this relationship in the performance of the hotel in relation to lower the accident rate. The Industrial Safety studies analyzing this accident causes (why they happen), their sources (committed activities), their agents (participants work means), its type (how the events occur or develop), all in order to develop prevention. In our case, as accidents happen because people commit wrongful acts or because the equipment, tools, machinery or workplaces are not in proper conditions, the preventive point of view we analyze through the incidence of workplace accidents hotel subsector. The crash occurs because there is a risk, so that adequate control of it would avoid despite individual factors. Absenteeism or absence from work was taken into account first by Dubois in 1977, as he realized the time lost in the nineteenth century due to the long working hours, which included the holidays. Motivation and job satisfaction were the elements that have been most important in the phenomenon of social psychology.

  10. Multicenter cohort study on the survival time of cancer patients dying at home or in a hospital: Does place matter?

    PubMed

    Hamano, Jun; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Maeda, Isseki; Suga, Akihiko; Hisanaga, Takayuki; Ishihara, Tatsuhiko; Iwashita, Tomoyuki; Kaneishi, Keisuke; Kawagoe, Shohei; Kuriyama, Toshiyuki; Maeda, Takashi; Mori, Ichiro; Nakajima, Nobuhisa; Nishi, Tomohiro; Sakurai, Hiroki; Shimoyama, Satofumi; Shinjo, Takuya; Shirayama, Hiroto; Yamada, Takeshi; Morita, Tatsuya

    2016-05-01

    Although the place of death has a great influence on the quality of death and dying for cancer patients, whether the survival time differs according to the place of death is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to explore potential differences in the survival time of cancer patients dying at home or in a hospital. This multicenter, prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014 and involved 58 specialist palliative care services. Among the 2426 patients recruited, 2069 patients were analyzed for this study: 1582 receiving hospital-based palliative care and 487 receiving home-based palliative care. A total of 1607 patients actually died in a hospital, and 462 patients died at home. The survival of patients who died at home was significantly longer than the survival of patients who died in a hospital in the days' prognosis group (estimated median survival time, 13 days [95% confidence interval (CI), 10.3-15.7 days] vs 9 days [95% CI, 8.0-10.0 days]; P = .006) and in the weeks' prognosis group (36 days [95% CI, 29.9-42.1 days] vs 29 days [95% CI, 26.5-31.5 days]; P = .007) as defined by Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model A. No significant difference was identified in the months' prognosis group. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that the place of death had a significant influence on the survival time in both unadjusted (hazard ratio [HR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78-0.96; P < .01) and adjusted models (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.77-0.97; P = .01). In comparison with cancer patients who died in a hospital, cancer patients who died at home had similar or longer survival. Cancer 2016;122:1453-1460. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  11. A spatial analysis of urban transit accidents assisted by Emergency Mobile Care Services: an analysis of space and time.

    PubMed

    Mendonça, Marcela Franklin Salvador de; Silva, Amanda Priscila de Santana Cabral; Castro, Claudia Cristina Lima de

    2017-01-01

    Urban transit accident are a global public health problem. The objective of this study was to describe the profile of the victims and the occurrences of urban transit accidents attended to by emergency mobile care services (Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência- SAMU) in Recife, and their distribution based on spatial analysis. An ecological study, developed through secondary data from emergency mobile care services in Recife, referring to the total number of occurrences of urban transit accidents attended to from January 1 to June 30, 2015. The spatial analysis was performed using the Moran index. Basic support units performed most of the emergency services (89.2%). Among the victims, there was a predominance of males (76.8%) and an age group of 20 - 29 years old (31.5%). Collisions were responsible for 59.9% of the transit accidents, and motorcycles for 61.6% of the accidents among all means of transportation. Friday was the day that showed the highest risk for treatment, and there was a concentration of events between 6:00 am - 8:59am and 6:00pm - 8:59pm. The MoranMap identified critical areas where calls came from traffic accidents during the period analyzed. The records of the mobile service from the spatial analysis are an important source of information for health surveillance. The spatial analysis of urban transit accidents identified regions with a positive spatial correlation, providing subsidies to the logistical planning of emergency mobile care services. This study is groundbreaking in that it offers such information about the region.

  12. Extended survival times of Mycoplasma gallisepticum and Mycoplasma synoviae on kanekalon synthetic hair fibres.

    PubMed

    Abolnik, Celia; Gouws, Johan

    2014-01-01

    The survival times of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg) and Mycoplasma synoviae (Ms) on washed and unwashed natural and synthetic kanekalon hair samples over a 5-d period were evaluated using the color changing unit method for comparison with results of previous studies conducted on natural hair. Regardless of whether synthetic or natural hair samples prewashed with a disinfectant shampoo were spiked with Mg or Ms, all viable organisms rapidly dropped below a count of 1 × 10(1)/mL of culture. Unwashed natural hair seeded with a titer of approximately 1 × 10(6)/mL of viable Mg or Ms decreased to 6 × 10(5)/mL and 6 × 10(3)/mL, respectively, by 4 h postseeding, but no viable Mg or Ms were detected on natural hair from 8 h onwards. By contrast, the titers of Mg and Ms on synthetic hair did not decline from the initial 1 × 10(6)/mL seed dose up to 96 h postseeding, and, in fact, viable Mg and Ms was still detectable at 9 d postinfection. Application of a real-time quantitative single-tube duplex PCR assay confirmed that no proliferation of Mg or Ms had occurred on the synthetic hair samples, the cells simply remained viable. The unexpected finding that Mg and Ms survive for extended periods on synthetic kanekalon hair fibers raises the question of whether attachment to a surface is a prerequisite for the survival and persistence of Mg and Ms in the extra-host environment. Future studies should be aimed at determining whether other synthetic hair types or indeed other types of plastics commonly found in the poultry house offer similar survival advantages to mycoplasmas.

  13. Effect of time to initiation of postoperative radiation therapy on survival in surgically managed head and neck cancer.

    PubMed

    Graboyes, Evan M; Garrett-Mayer, Elizabeth; Ellis, Mark A; Sharma, Anand K; Wahlquist, Amy E; Lentsch, Eric J; Nussenbaum, Brian; Day, Terry A

    2017-12-15

    The objective of this study was to determine the effects of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guideline-adherent initiation of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) and different time-to-PORT intervals on the overall survival (OS) of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The National Cancer Data Base was reviewed for the period of 2006-2014, and patients with HNSCC undergoing surgery and PORT were identified. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, Cox regression analysis, and propensity score matching were used to determine the effects of initiating PORT within 6 weeks of surgery and different time-to-PORT intervals on survival. This study included 41,291 patients. After adjustments for covariates, starting PORT >6 weeks postoperatively was associated with decreased OS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.13; 99% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.19). This finding remained in the propensity score-matched subset (hazard ratio, 1.21; 99% CI, 1.15-1.28). In comparison with starting PORT 5 to 6 weeks postoperatively, initiating PORT earlier was not associated with improved survival (aHR for ≤ 4 weeks, 0.93; 99% CI, 0.85-1.02; aHR for 4-5 weeks, 0.92; 99% CI, 0.84-1.01). Increasing durations of delay beyond 7 weeks were associated with small, progressive survival decrements (aHR, 1.09, 1.10, and 1.12 for 7-8, 8-10, and >10 weeks, respectively). Nonadherence to NCCN guidelines for initiating PORT within 6 weeks of surgery was associated with decreased survival. There was no survival benefit to initiating PORT earlier within the recommended 6-week timeframe. Increasing durations of delay beyond 7 weeks were associated with small, progressive survival decrements. Cancer 2017;123:4841-50. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  14. Accidents on hospital wards.

    PubMed Central

    Levene, S; Bonfield, G

    1991-01-01

    Eight hospitals reported 781 non-iatrogenic accidents occurring to patients and visitors under 16 years of age during an 18 month period up to October 1989. Accidents more often involved boys and children aged 3 to 5 years old. Falls from a height, slips, and striking accidents were common by day and falls by night. A total of 41% of accidents to inpatients occurred when parents were present. Only three accidents were serious. Altogether 27% involved beds and cots, and only one consequent injury was more than minor. Data collected routinely in case of medicolegal action can be presented in a form that may facilitate preventative work. Potentially remediable causes for concern include falls from beds and cots and the use of makeshift equipment. PMID:1929510

  15. First recovery in anorexia nervosa patients in the long-term course: a discrete-time survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Herzog, W; Schellberg, D; Deter, H C

    1997-02-01

    The results of a 12-year follow-up study of occurrence and timing of first recovery in 69 hospitalized patients with severe anorexia nervosa (AN) are presented. For the first time discrete-time survival analysis methods were used to determine the likelihood of recovery in AN patients. Furthermore, predictors gleaned from pretreatment-posttreatment studies of long-term outcome in AN could be evaluated as to their effect on a change in the time course structure of the likelihood of first recovery. Results show that AN condition did not improve until after 6 years after the first inpatient treatment in 50% of patients. However, a restricter-type AN and low serum creatinine levels were predictors for earlier recovery. One specific effect was that AN patients who show purging behavior in combination with additional social disturbances have a lower chance of recovering. The use of discrete-time survival analysis methodology in further prospective studies will contribute to the development of more tailored treatment of AN, which also takes the individual phase of illness and specific aspects of the symptomatology into account.

  16. Home accidents to children under 15 years: survey of 910 cases.

    PubMed

    Murdock, R; Eva, J

    1974-07-13

    Out of 910 accidents sustained by children under 15 seen at the casualty department of a local hospital 678 (74.5%) were to children under 5 years of age. Boys were more prone to accidents than girls, and in preschool children the highest incidence of accidents was among the 2-to 3-year-olds of both sexes. Social class had no significant bearing on the accident rate. The fact that the average size of families with children under 5 was higher among families living in council houses than among those living in private houses appeared to have some bearing on the higher incidence of accidents among children under 5 living in council houses. There appeared to be no peak month when accidents were more frequent and the incidence of accidents was not significantly high on any particular weekday. In 95% of the cases one or both parents were in charge of the child at the time of the accident.Cuts were the most common types of accident followed by falls and poisoning. Among other accidents crushed fingers were as frequent as burns. A total of 62 patients (6.8% of all cases) were admitted as inpatients. Of the actual causes of the cuts and falls playing, fighting, and misbehaving were the most common followed by falling from beds, chairs, etc. While there is a need for health education programmes to draw attention to the specific dangers evidenced there clearly will always be home accidents.

  17. Work accidents and self-esteem of nursing professional in hospital settings.

    PubMed

    Santos, Sérgio Valverde Marques Dos; Macedo, Flávia Ribeiro Martins; Silva, Luiz Almeida da; Resck, Zelia Marilda Rodrigues; Nogueira, Denismar Alves; Terra, Fábio de Souza

    2017-04-20

    to analyze the occurrence of work accidents and the self-esteem of nurses in hospitals of a municipality of Minas Gerais. descriptive-analytical and cross-sectional study developed with 393 nursing professionals from three hospitals of a municipality in southern Minas Gerais. The Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale and a questionnaire to characterize the population and work accidents were used for data collection. Data analysis was performed using Person's chi-squared test, Fisher's exact test, Cronbach's alpha, odds ratio and logistic regression. of the professionals studied, 15% had suffered an accident at work and 70.2% presented high self-esteem. Through the analysis, it was observed that smoking, religious belief and an outstanding event in the career were significantly associated with work accidents. In relation to self-esteem, family income, length of time working in the profession and an outstanding event in the career presented significant associations. factors such as smoking, religious belief, family income, length of time working in the profession and an outstanding event in the career can cause professionals to have accidents and/or cause changes in self-esteem, which can compromise their physical and mental health and their quality of life and work.

  18. Time-trends on incidence and survival in a nationwide and unselected cohort of patients with skeletal osteosarcoma

    PubMed Central

    Johannesen, Tom B⊘rge; Berner, Aasmund; Haugland, Hans Kristian; Bjerkehagen, Bodil; B⊘hler, Per J.; Bruland, Øyvind S.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background This study describes time-trends on epidemiology, subtypes and histopathological entities of osteosarcoma (OS) in a nationwide and unselected cohort of OS patients in Norway between 1975 and 2009. Few nationwide studies are published, and we still have particularly limited knowledge regarding patients not included in clinical trials comprising about half of the OS population. Method Histologically verified skeletal OS for all subgroups were included, resulting in 473 eligible cases from a total of 702 evaluated patients. To ensure completeness, the present cohort was based on all cases reported to the Norwegian Cancer Registry, complemented with data from all Norwegian hospitals involved in sarcoma management. Survival analyses were performed with overall and sarcoma-specific survival as endpoints. Results Mean annual age-standard incidence amounted to about 3.8 per million in male and 2.8 per million in female with no clear time-trends. The male to female ratio was 1.4. Peak incidence was observed in the second decade for both genders. Conventional OS comprised 71.2% of all cases, while low grade OS represented 10.4% and telangiectatic OS only 1.3%. The most common primary site of OS was femur and tibia, respectively. The axial to appendicular ratio increased with the age. The overall 10-year survival did increase from about 30% during the late 1970s to around 50% 20 years later, with no subsequent improvement during the last two decades. Axial tumours, age above 40 years and overt metastatic disease at time of diagnosis were all negative prognostic factors. Conclusion No improvement in the overall survival for OS since the 1990s was documented. The survival rates are still poor for elderly people, patients with axial disease and in the primary metastatic setting. The average incidence rate of skeletal OS in Norway was in line with international figures. PMID:24957555

  19. Time-trends on incidence and survival in a nationwide and unselected cohort of patients with skeletal osteosarcoma.

    PubMed

    Berner, Kjetil; Johannesen, Tom Børge; Berner, Aasmund; Haugland, Hans Kristian; Bjerkehagen, Bodil; Bøhler, Per J; Bruland, Øyvind S

    2015-01-01

    This study describes time-trends on epidemiology, subtypes and histopathological entities of osteosarcoma (OS) in a nationwide and unselected cohort of OS patients in Norway between 1975 and 2009. Few nationwide studies are published, and we still have particularly limited knowledge regarding patients not included in clinical trials comprising about half of the OS population. Histologically verified skeletal OS for all subgroups were included, resulting in 473 eligible cases from a total of 702 evaluated patients. To ensure completeness, the present cohort was based on all cases reported to the Norwegian Cancer Registry, complemented with data from all Norwegian hospitals involved in sarcoma management. Survival analyses were performed with overall and sarcoma-specific survival as endpoints. Mean annual age-standard incidence amounted to about 3.8 per million in male and 2.8 per million in female with no clear time-trends. The male to female ratio was 1.4. Peak incidence was observed in the second decade for both genders. Conventional OS comprised 71.2% of all cases, while low grade OS represented 10.4% and telangiectatic OS only 1.3%. The most common primary site of OS was femur and tibia, respectively. The axial to appendicular ratio increased with the age. The overall 10-year survival did increase from about 30% during the late 1970s to around 50% 20 years later, with no subsequent improvement during the last two decades. Axial tumours, age above 40 years and overt metastatic disease at time of diagnosis were all negative prognostic factors. No improvement in the overall survival for OS since the 1990s was documented. The survival rates are still poor for elderly people, patients with axial disease and in the primary metastatic setting. The average incidence rate of skeletal OS in Norway was in line with international figures.

  20. Time to hospitalization for suicide attempt by the timing of parental suicide during offspring early development

    PubMed Central

    Kuramoto, S. Janet; Runeson, Bo; Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Wilcox, Holly C.

    2013-01-01

    Context Previous studies have suggested that children who experience parental suicide at earlier ages are at higher risk of future hospitalization for suicide attempt. However, how the trajectories of risk differ by offspring age at the time of parental suicide is currently unknown. Objective To study time at risk to hospitalization for suicide attempt among offspring after experiencing parental suicide or accidental death by offspring developmental period at the time of parental death. Design Population-based retrospective cohort study Setting Sweden Participants 26,096 offspring who experienced parental suicide and 32,395 offspring of accident decedents prior to age 25 from 1973-2003. Main Outcome Measures Hospitalization for suicide attempt. Parametric survival analysis was used to model the time to hospitalization for suicide attempt across offspring who lost a parent during early childhood (0-5 years old), later childhood (6-12), adolescence (13-17) and young adulthood (18-24). Results The risk in offspring who lost a parent during early or late childhood surpassed the other two age groups’ hazards approximately 5 years after the origin and, for the youngest group, continued to rise over the course of decades. Offspring who lost a parent during adolescence or young adulthood were at greatest risk within 1 to 2 years after parental suicide, and risk declined over time. The shape of hospitalization risk was similar among those who experienced parental fatal accident. When the shape of hospitalization for suicide attempt at each developmental period was fixed to be the same between the two groups, offspring who lost a parent to suicide had earlier risk to hospitalization for suicide attempt hospitalization than offspring who lost a parent to an accident. Conclusion The hospitalization risk for suicide attempt in offspring who lost a parent during their childhood is different from those who lost a parent during adolescence or young adulthood. The results suggest

  1. [Spinal cord injuries caused by aviation accidents].

    PubMed

    Heim, M; Ohry, A; Zeilig, G; Gur, S

    1992-05-15

    During the past 15 years fewer than 1% of those treated in the National Spinal Cord Injury Center were injured as a result of aviation accidents. In addition to 9 such patients treated at the center since 1973, another 6 were found among the many hundreds receiving ambulatory care in our clinics. 3 patients had survived a helicopter crash, 2 were injured while ejecting from combat aircraft, 3 were injured in crashes of light aircraft, 1 fell from a hand glider and 6 were injured in parachute drops. Of the 15 reviewed, 6 use wheelchairs, 3 walk assisted by orthopedic devices, while 6 ambulate freely. Although initial hospitalization was not substantially longer than in other patients with spinal cord injuries, extended ambulatory psychological intervention was necessary.

  2. Industrial accidents are related to relative body weight: the Israeli CORDIS study.

    PubMed Central

    Froom, P; Melamed, S; Kristal-Boneh, E; Gofer, D; Ribak, J

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The accident rate might be influenced by intrinsic characteristics of the workers, by risks inherent in the work environment, or a combination of these factors. As increased weight may be associated with sleep disturbances and fatigue, a high body mass index (BMI) might be an independent risk factor for accidents in industrial workers. METHODS: 3801 men were examined and followed up for two years for the occurrence of accidents. The objective environmental conditions were recorded and translated into a single score of ergonomic stress levels. Height and weight were recorded, as were possible confounding factors including measures of fatigue, type A personality, total night time sleep, job satisfaction, somatic complaints, smoking, and education levels. RESULTS: Both BMI and ergonomic stress levels independently predicted involvement in accidents (two or more) with those in the highest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with high ergonomic stress levels having a 4-6 times increased risk of accidents compared with those in the lowest BMI quartile who worked in an environment with low ergonomic stress levels (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.4-9.0, P < 0.001). Although increasing somatic complaints and a low educational level also were predictors of accidents, they did not mediate the effect of the BMI on the accident rate. Increasing age, less smoking, and decreased sleep hours were significantly associated with an increased BMI, but the association of BMI and involvement in accidents also could not be explained by those factors or the other confounders. CONCLUSIONS: BMI independently influences the accident rate. Further studies warranted to confirm these findings and to explore mechanisms supporting biological plausibility. PMID:9004929

  3. Parental Monitoring during Early Adolescence Deters Adolescent Sexual Initiation: Discrete-Time Survival Mixture Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, David Y. C.; Murphy, Debra A.; Hser, Yih-Ing

    2011-01-01

    We used discrete-time survival mixture modeling to examine 5,305 adolescents from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth regarding the impact of parental monitoring during early adolescence (ages 14-16) on initiation of sexual intercourse and problem behavior engagement (ages 14-23). Four distinctive parental-monitoring groups were…

  4. Rear-end accident victims. Importance of understanding the accident.

    PubMed Central

    Sehmer, J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Family physicians regularly treat victims of rear-end vehicle accidents. This article describes how taking a detailed history of the accident and understanding the significance of the physical events is helpful in understanding and anticipating patients' morbidity and clinical course. Eight questions to ask patients are suggested to help physicians understand the severity of injury. PMID:8495140

  5. Prevention of bicycle accidents.

    PubMed

    Simpson, A H; Mineiro, J

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate the way of reducing the number of bicycle accidents. A prospective study of all casualties from bicycle accidents attending an accident unit for a 29-month period was performed (1831 patients). A more detailed questionnaire on the causes of accidents was used for the last 12 months of the study (818 patients). In the 0-7 and 8-12 years age groups, 87.5 per cent and 66.2 per cent, respectively, were due to cyclist error. The 8-12-year-old cyclists were twice as likely to have caused the accident if they had not had formal training (risk ratio = 2.0). Over the age of 18 years, 41.4 per cent were due to another road user. A motor vehicle was involved in 633 of the 1831 accidents. Children under the age of 8 years should not be allowed on public roads. Older children should only be allowed on the roads after formal training. This should become part of the school curriculum. A campaign to increase the awareness of motorists would be expected to reduce the number of cycle accidents. It would be beneficial to dedicate more roads and tracks to cycle use. Cyclists should be encouraged to wear more protective gear.

  6. Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

    PubMed

    Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

    2009-07-01

    In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

  7. Tolazoline decreases survival time during microwave-induced lethal heat stress in anesthetized rats

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jauchem, J.R.; Chang, K.S.; Frei, M.R.

    1996-03-01

    Effects of {alpha}-adrenergic antagonists have been studied during environmental heating but not during microwave-induced heating. Tolazoline may exert some of its effects via {alpha}-adrenergic blockade. In the present study, ketamine-anesthetized Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to 2450-MHz microwaves at an average power density of 60 mW/cm{sup 2} (whole-body specific absorption rate of approximately 14 W/kg) until lethal temperatures were attained. The effects of tolazoline (10 mg/kg body weight) on physiological responses (including changes in body temperature, heart rate, blood pressure, and respiratory rate) were examined. Survival time was significantly shorter in the tolazoline group than in saline-treated animals. In general, heartmore » rate and blood pressure responses were similar to those that occur during environmental heat stress. Heart rate, however, was significantly elevated in animals that received tolazoline, both before and during terminal microwave exposure. It is possible that changes associated with the elevated heart rate (e.g., less cardiac filling) in tolazoline-treated animals resulted in greater susceptibility to microwave-induced heating and the lower survival time. 47 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.« less

  8. Accident data availability

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-06-01

    This project investigates alternate forms of dissemination for the accident information. Costs, capabilities, and compatibility are reviewed for integration of the accident database with a GIS format to allow a graphical and spatial interface. the is...

  9. Vehicle accidents related to sleep: a review.

    PubMed

    Horne, J; Reyner, L

    1999-05-01

    Falling asleep while driving accounts for a considerable proportion of vehicle accidents under monotonous driving conditions. Many of these accidents are related to work--for example, drivers of lorries, goods vehicles, and company cars. Time of day (circadian) effects are profound, with sleepiness being particularly evident during night shift work, and driving home afterwards. Circadian factors are as important in determining driver sleepiness as is the duration of the drive, but only duration of the drive is built into legislation protecting professional drivers. Older drivers are also vulnerable to sleepiness in the mid-afternoon. Possible pathological causes of driver sleepiness are discussed, but there is little evidence that this factor contributes greatly to the accident statistics. Sleep does not occur spontaneously without warning. Drivers falling asleep are unlikely to recollect having done so, but will be aware of the precursory state of increasing sleepiness; probably reaching a state of fighting off sleep before an accident. Self awareness of sleepiness is a better method for alerting the driver than automatic sleepiness detectors in the vehicle. None of these have been proved to be reliable and most have shortcomings. Putative counter measures to sleepiness, adopted during continued driving (cold air, use of car radio) are only effective for a short time. The only safe counter measure to driver sleepiness, particularly when the driver reaches the stage of fighting sleep, is to stop driving, and--for example, take a 30 minute break encompassing a short (< 15 minute) nap or coffee (about 150 mg caffeine), which are very effective particularly if taken together. Exercise is of little use. More education of employers and employees is needed about planning journeys, the dangers of driving while sleepy, and driving at vulnerable times of the day.

  10. GIS based analysis of Intercity Fatal Road Traffic Accidents in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Alizadeh, A; Zare, M; Darparesh, M; Mohseni, S; Soleimani-Ahmadi, M

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic accidents including intercity car traffic accidents (ICTAs) are among the most important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the growing number of vehicles, risky behaviors, and changes in lifestyle of the general population. A sound knowledge of the geographical distribution of car traffic accidents can be considered as an approach towards the accident causation and it can be used as an administrative tool in allocating the sources for traffic accidents prevention. This study was conducted to investigate the geographical distribution and the time trend of fatal intercity car traffic accidents in Iran. To conduct this descriptive study, all Iranian intercity road traffic mortality data were obtained from the Police reports in the Statistical Yearbook of the Governor’s Budget and Planning. The obtained data were for 17 complete Iranian calendar years from March 1997 to March 2012. The incidence rate (IR) of fatal ICTAs for each year was calculated as the total number of fatal ICTAs in every 100000 population in specified time intervals. Figures and maps indicating the trends and geographical distribution of fatal ICTAs were prepared while using Microsoft Excel and ArcGis9.2 software. The number of fatal car accidents showed a general increasing trend from 3000 in 1996 to 13500 in 2012. The incidence of fatal intercity car accidents has changed from six in 100000 population in 1996 to 18 in 100000 population in 2012. GIS based data showed that the incidence rate of ICTAs in different provinces of Iran was very divergent. The highest incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Semnan province (IR= 35.2), followed by North Khorasan (IR=22.7), and South Khorasan (IR=22). The least incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Tehran province (IR=2.4) followed by Khozestan (IR=6.5), and Eastern Azarbayejan (IR=6.6). The compensation cost of fatal ICTAs also showed an increasing trend during the studied period. Since an increasing amount of money was being paid yearly for the

  11. GIS based analysis of Intercity Fatal Road Traffic Accidents in Iran.

    PubMed

    Alizadeh, A; Zare, M; Darparesh, M; Mohseni, S; Soleimani-Ahmadi, M

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic accidents including intercity car traffic accidents (ICTAs) are among the most important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the growing number of vehicles, risky behaviors, and changes in lifestyle of the general population. A sound knowledge of the geographical distribution of car traffic accidents can be considered as an approach towards the accident causation and it can be used as an administrative tool in allocating the sources for traffic accidents prevention. This study was conducted to investigate the geographical distribution and the time trend of fatal intercity car traffic accidents in Iran. To conduct this descriptive study, all Iranian intercity road traffic mortality data were obtained from the Police reports in the Statistical Yearbook of the Governor's Budget and Planning. The obtained data were for 17 complete Iranian calendar years from March 1997 to March 2012. The incidence rate (IR) of fatal ICTAs for each year was calculated as the total number of fatal ICTAs in every 100000 population in specified time intervals. Figures and maps indicating the trends and geographical distribution of fatal ICTAs were prepared while using Microsoft Excel and ArcGis9.2 software. The number of fatal car accidents showed a general increasing trend from 3000 in 1996 to 13500 in 2012. The incidence of fatal intercity car accidents has changed from six in 100000 population in 1996 to 18 in 100000 population in 2012. GIS based data showed that the incidence rate of ICTAs in different provinces of Iran was very divergent. The highest incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Semnan province (IR= 35.2), followed by North Khorasan (IR=22.7), and South Khorasan (IR=22). The least incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Tehran province (IR=2.4) followed by Khozestan (IR=6.5), and Eastern Azarbayejan (IR=6.6). The compensation cost of fatal ICTAs also showed an increasing trend during the studied period. Since an increasing amount of money was being paid yearly for the car

  12. Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Jean-Louis; Gadegbeku, Blandine; Wu, Dan; Viallon, Vivian; Laumon, Bernard

    2017-01-01

    Introduction This research aims to estimate the relative risks of responsibility for a fatal accident linked to driving under the influence of cannabis or alcohol, the prevalence of these influences among drivers and the corresponding attributable risk ratios. A secondary goal is to estimate the same items for three other groups of illicit drugs (amphetamines, cocaine and opiates), and to compare the results to a similar study carried out in France between 2001 and 2003. Methodology Police procedures for fatal accidents in Metropolitan France during 2011 were analyzed and 300 characteristics encoded to provide a database of 4,059 drivers. Information on alcohol and four groups of illicit drugs derived from tests for positivity and potential confirmation through blood analysis. The study compares drivers responsible for causing the accident, that is to say having directly contributed to its occurrence, to drivers involved in an accident for which they were not responsible, and who can be assimilated to drivers in general. Results The proportion of persons driving under the influence of alcohol is estimated at 2.1% (95% CI: 1.4–2.8) and under the influence of cannabis at 3.4% (2.9%-3.9%). Drivers under the influence of alcohol are 17.8 times (12.1–26.1) more likely to be responsible for a fatal accident, and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever exceeded the legal limit for alcohol is estimated at 27.7% (26.0%-29.4%). Drivers under the influence of cannabis multiply their risk of being responsible for causing a fatal accident by 1.65 (1.16–2.34), and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever drove under the influence of cannabis is estimated at 4.2% (3.7%-4.8%). An increased risk linked to opiate use has also been found to be significant, but with low prevalence, requiring caution in interpreting this finding. Other groups of narcotics have even lower prevalence, and the associated

  13. Cannabis, alcohol and fatal road accidents.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jean-Louis; Gadegbeku, Blandine; Wu, Dan; Viallon, Vivian; Laumon, Bernard

    2017-01-01

    This research aims to estimate the relative risks of responsibility for a fatal accident linked to driving under the influence of cannabis or alcohol, the prevalence of these influences among drivers and the corresponding attributable risk ratios. A secondary goal is to estimate the same items for three other groups of illicit drugs (amphetamines, cocaine and opiates), and to compare the results to a similar study carried out in France between 2001 and 2003. Police procedures for fatal accidents in Metropolitan France during 2011 were analyzed and 300 characteristics encoded to provide a database of 4,059 drivers. Information on alcohol and four groups of illicit drugs derived from tests for positivity and potential confirmation through blood analysis. The study compares drivers responsible for causing the accident, that is to say having directly contributed to its occurrence, to drivers involved in an accident for which they were not responsible, and who can be assimilated to drivers in general. The proportion of persons driving under the influence of alcohol is estimated at 2.1% (95% CI: 1.4-2.8) and under the influence of cannabis at 3.4% (2.9%-3.9%). Drivers under the influence of alcohol are 17.8 times (12.1-26.1) more likely to be responsible for a fatal accident, and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever exceeded the legal limit for alcohol is estimated at 27.7% (26.0%-29.4%). Drivers under the influence of cannabis multiply their risk of being responsible for causing a fatal accident by 1.65 (1.16-2.34), and the proportion of fatal accidents which would be prevented if no drivers ever drove under the influence of cannabis is estimated at 4.2% (3.7%-4.8%). An increased risk linked to opiate use has also been found to be significant, but with low prevalence, requiring caution in interpreting this finding. Other groups of narcotics have even lower prevalence, and the associated extra risks cannot be assessed. Almost a

  14. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    PubMed

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57-63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30-8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00-2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03-3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14-9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers.

  15. Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability

    PubMed Central

    Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Pauly, Mark V.

    2009-01-01

    Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality. PMID:20376300

  16. Equations for determining aircraft motions for accident data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bach, R. E., Jr.; Wingrove, R. C.

    1980-01-01

    Procedures for determining a comprehensive accident scenario from a limited data set are reported. The analysis techniques accept and process data from either an Air Traffic Control radar tracking system or a foil flight data recorder. Local meteorological information at the time of the accident and aircraft performance data are also utilized. Equations for the desired aircraft motions and forces are given in terms of elements of the measurement set and certain of their time derivatives. The principal assumption made is that aircraft side force and side-slip angle are negligible. An estimation procedure is outlined for use with each data source. For the foil case, a discussion of exploiting measurement redundancy is given. Since either formulation requires estimates of measurement time derivatives, an algorithm for least squares smoothing is provided.

  17. Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

    2003-01-01

    Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

  18. Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

    2013-01-01

    Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

  19. United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

  20. United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    DOE PAGES

    Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

    2016-11-02

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

  1. A subset of skin tumor modifier loci determines survival time of tumor-bearing mice

    PubMed Central

    Nagase, Hiroki; Mao, Jian-Hua; Balmain, Allan

    1999-01-01

    Studies of mouse models of human cancer have established the existence of multiple tumor modifiers that influence parameters of cancer susceptibility such as tumor multiplicity, tumor size, or the probability of malignant progression. We have carried out an analysis of skin tumor susceptibility in interspecific Mus musculus/Mus spretus hybrid mice and have identified another seven loci showing either significant (six loci) or suggestive (one locus) linkage to tumor susceptibility or resistance. A specific search was carried out for skin tumor modifier loci associated with time of survival after development of a malignant tumor. A combination of resistance alleles at three markers [D6Mit15 (Skts12), D7Mit12 (Skts2), and D17Mit7 (Skts10)], all of which are close to or the same as loci associated with carcinoma incidence and/or papilloma multiplicity, is significantly associated with increased survival of mice with carcinomas, whereas the reverse combination of susceptibility alleles is significantly linked to early mortality caused by rapid carcinoma growth (χ2 = 25.22; P = 5.1 × 10−8). These data indicate that host genetic factors may be used to predict carcinoma growth rate and/or survival of individual backcross mice exposed to the same carcinogenic stimulus and suggest that mouse models may provide an approach to the identification of genetic modifiers of cancer survival in humans. PMID:10611333

  2. Impact of prolonged oocyte incubation time before vitrification on oocyte survival, embryo formation, and embryo quality in mice.

    PubMed

    Karami, Azade; Bakhtiari, Mitra; Azadbakht, Mehri; Ghorbani, Rostam; Khazaei, Mozafar; Rezaei, Mansour

    2017-06-01

    Oocyte incubation time before freezing is one of the factors affecting oocyte vitrification. In the assisted reproductive technology (ART) clinics, it is sometimes decided to perform oocyte vitrification after a long period of incubation time due to various conditions, such as inability to collect semen samples, unsuccessful urological interventions (PESA, TESE, etc.), or unexpected conditions. A time factor of up to 6 h has been studied in the available reports. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate oocyte incubation time before freezing at 0, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h after retrieval. Metaphase II (MII) oocytes were obtained from NMRI female mice after being randomly divided into the five groups of 0, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h of freezing via hormonal stimulation following retrieval and entered into the vitrification-warming process. The thawed oocytes were evaluated according to the survival criteria and then inseminated with the sperms of male mice for in vitro fertilization. The next day, the embryo formation rate and embryo quality were assessed. Our results demonstrated that even after 24 h of incubation, the survival rate of oocytes was 51.35% with the embryo formation rate of 73.21%. However, the survival and embryo formation rates significantly decreased within 12, 18, and 24 h after retrieval compared to the groups vitrified at 0 h. The embryo quality was significantly reduced by vitrification at 0 to 24 h after retrieval. According to our data, although a prolonged incubation time before freezing reduced the survival rate, there was still a chance for oocytes to stay alive with acceptable embryo formation and quality rates after vitrification warming of oocytes.

  3. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    PubMed

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  4. Teacher Survival Rates--A Current Look

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mark, Jonathan H.; Anderson, Barry D.

    1978-01-01

    To examine how survival rates change with time, each cohort of new entrants to the public school teaching profession between 1968 and 1976 was examined. Results replicated Charters' downward sloping survival curve, although the curve has shifted up steadily through time. The survival rate differential between men and women is decreasing over time.…

  5. Home Accidents to Children under 15 Years: Survey of 910 Cases

    PubMed Central

    Murdock, R.; Eva, Joyce

    1974-01-01

    Out of 910 accidents sustained by children under 15 seen at the casualty department of a local hospital 678 (74·5%) were to children under 5 years of age. Boys were more prone to accidents than girls, and in preschool children the highest incidence of accidents was among the 2-to 3-year-olds of both sexes. Social class had no significant bearing on the accident rate. The fact that the average size of families with children under 5 was higher among families living in council houses than among those living in private houses appeared to have some bearing on the higher incidence of accidents among children under 5 living in council houses. There appeared to be no peak month when accidents were more frequent and the incidence of accidents was not significantly high on any particular weekday. In 95% of the cases one or both parents were in charge of the child at the time of the accident. Cuts were the most common types of accident followed by falls and poisoning. Among other accidents crushed fingers were as frequent as burns. A total of 62 patients (6·8% of all cases) were admitted as inpatients. Of the actual causes of the cuts and falls playing, fighting, and misbehaving were the most common followed by falling from beds, chairs, etc. While there is a need for health education programmes to draw attention to the specific dangers evidenced there clearly will always be home accidents. PMID:4852285

  6. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    PubMed

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  7. Application of accelerated failure time models for breast cancer patients' survival in Kurdistan Province of Iran.

    PubMed

    Karimi, Asrin; Delpisheh, Ali; Sayehmiri, Kourosh

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second common cause of cancer-induced mortalities in Iranian women. There has been a rapid development in hazard models and survival analysis in the last decade. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in breast cancer patients using accelerated failure time models (AFT). This was a retrospective-analytic cohort study. About 313 women with a pathologically proven diagnosis of breast cancer who had been treated during a 7-year period (since January 2006 until March 2014) in Sanandaj City, Kurdistan Province of Iran were recruited. Performance among AFT was assessed using the goodness of fit methods. Discrimination among the exponential, Weibull, generalized gamma, log-logistic, and log-normal distributions was done using Akaik information criteria and maximum likelihood. The 5 years OS was 75% (95% CI = 74.57-75.43). The main results in terms of survival were found for the different categories of the clinical stage covariate, tumor metastasis, and relapse of cancer. Survival time in breast cancer patients without tumor metastasis and relapse were 4, 2-fold longer than other patients with metastasis and relapse, respectively. One of the most important undermining prognostic factors in breast cancer is metastasis; hence, knowledge of the mechanisms of metastasis is necessary to prevent it so occurrence and treatment of metastatic breast cancer and ultimately extend the lifetime of patients.

  8. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survivalmore » of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.« less

  9. Differential presentation and survival of de novo and recurrent metastatic breast cancer over time: 1990-2010.

    PubMed

    Malmgren, Judith A; Mayer, Musa; Atwood, Mary K; Kaplan, Henry G

    2018-01-01

    Differences in de novo (dnMBC) and recurrent metastatic breast cancer (rMBC) presentation and survival over time have not been adequately described. A retrospective cohort study, 1990-2010, with follow up through 2015 of dnMBC patients (stage IV at diagnosis) and rMBC patients with subsequent distant metastatic recurrence (stage I-III initial diagnosis) [dnMBC = 247, rMBC = 911)]. Analysis included Chi squared tests of categorical variables, Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, and Cox proportional adjusted hazard ratios (HzR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Disease specific survival (DSS) was time from diagnosis or distant recurrence to BC death. Over time, 1990-1998, 1999-2004, and 2005-2010, dnMBC incidence was constant (3%) and rMBC incidence decreased [18% to 7% (p < 0.001)] with no change in dnMBC hormone receptor (HR) or her2-neu (HER2) status but a decrease in rMBC HER2-positive cases and increase in triple negative breast cancer (HR-negative/HER2-negative) (p = 0.049). Five-year dnMBC DSS was 44% vs. 21% for rMBC (p < 0.001). Five-year dnMBC DSS improved over time [28% to 55% (p = 0.008)] and rMBC worsened [23% to 13%, p = 0.065)]. Worse DSS was associated with HR-negative status (HzR = 1.63; 1.41, 1.89), rMBC (HzR = 1.88; 1.58, 2.23), older age (70 +) (HzR = 1.88; 1.58, 2.24), > 1 distant metastases (HzR 1.39; 1.20, 1.62), and visceral dominant disease (HzR 1.22; 1.05, 1.43). After 1998, HER2-positive disease was associated with better DSS (HzR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.56, 0.93). Factors associated with the widening survival gap and non-equivalence between dnMBC and rMBC and decreased rMBC incidence warrant further study.

  10. Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation.

    PubMed

    Stepanova, Ekaterina V; Kondrashin, Anatoly V; Sergiev, Vladimir P; Morozova, Lola F; Turbabina, Natalia A; Maksimova, Maria S; Brazhnikov, Alexey I; Shevchenko, Sergei B; Morozov, Evgeny N

    2017-01-01

    Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named "Increase road traffic safety". Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper.

  11. 28 CFR 301.106 - Repetitious accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... on a particular work site in a comparatively short period of time, regardless of whether injury... of the inmate's work supervisor, implies a danger of further accidents in the task assigned, the inmate shall be assigned to another task more suitable to the inmate's ability. ...

  12. 28 CFR 301.106 - Repetitious accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... on a particular work site in a comparatively short period of time, regardless of whether injury... of the inmate's work supervisor, implies a danger of further accidents in the task assigned, the inmate shall be assigned to another task more suitable to the inmate's ability. ...

  13. 28 CFR 301.106 - Repetitious accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... on a particular work site in a comparatively short period of time, regardless of whether injury... of the inmate's work supervisor, implies a danger of further accidents in the task assigned, the inmate shall be assigned to another task more suitable to the inmate's ability. ...

  14. Aircraft accidents : method of analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1931-01-01

    The revised report includes the chart for the analysis of aircraft accidents, combining consideration of the immediate causes, underlying causes, and results of accidents, as prepared by the special committee, with a number of the definitions clarified. A brief statement of the organization and work of the special committee and of the Committee on Aircraft Accidents; and statistical tables giving a comparison of the types of accidents and causes of accidents in the military services on the one hand and in civil aviation on the other, together with explanations of some of the important differences noted in these tables.

  15. Connecticut traffic accident facts, 2006

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-04-01

    This report documents facts on reported 2006 traffic accidents included in the : Department database. Sections of the report contain statistics on major categories of traffic : accidents. These categories include all reported accidents, reported alco...

  16. A review of statistical issues with progression-free survival as an interval-censored time-to-event endpoint.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xing; Li, Xiaoyun; Chen, Cong; Song, Yang

    2013-01-01

    Frequent rise of interval-censored time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials (e.g., progression-free survival [PFS] in oncology) challenges statistical researchers in the pharmaceutical industry in various ways. These challenges exist in both trial design and data analysis. Conventional statistical methods treating intervals as fixed points, which are generally practiced by pharmaceutical industry, sometimes yield inferior or even flawed analysis results in extreme cases for interval-censored data. In this article, we examine the limitation of these standard methods under typical clinical trial settings and further review and compare several existing nonparametric likelihood-based methods for interval-censored data, methods that are more sophisticated but robust. Trial design issues involved with interval-censored data comprise another topic to be explored in this article. Unlike right-censored survival data, expected sample size or power for a trial with interval-censored data relies heavily on the parametric distribution of the baseline survival function as well as the frequency of assessments. There can be substantial power loss in trials with interval-censored data if the assessments are very infrequent. Such an additional dependency controverts many fundamental assumptions and principles in conventional survival trial designs, especially the group sequential design (e.g., the concept of information fraction). In this article, we discuss these fundamental changes and available tools to work around their impacts. Although progression-free survival is often used as a discussion point in the article, the general conclusions are equally applicable to other interval-censored time-to-event endpoints.

  17. Evaluation of the 2008 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Beer, W. Nicholas; Iltis, Susannah; Anderson, James J.

    2009-01-01

    Columbia Basin Research uses the COMPASS model on a daily basis during the outmigration of Snake River Chinook and steelhead smolts to predict downstream passage and survival. Fish arrival predictions and observations from program RealTime along with predicted and observed environmental conditions are used to make in-season predictions of arrival and survival to various dams in the Columbia and Snake Rivers. For 2008, calibrations of travel and survival parameters for two stocks of fish-Snake River yearling PIT-tagged wild chinook salmon (chin1pit) and Snake River PIT-tagged steelhead (lgrStlhd)-were used to model travel and survival of steelhead and chinook stocks from Lowermore » Granite Dam (LWG) or McNary Dam (MCN) to Bonneville Dam (BON). This report summarizes the success of the COMPASS/RealTime process to model these migrations as they occur. We compared model results on timing and survival to data from two sources: stock specific counts at dams and end-of-season control survival estimates (Jim Faulkner, NOAA, pers. comm. Dec. 16, 2008). The difference between the predicted and observed day of median passage and the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between predicted and observed arrival cumulative distributions are measures of timing accuracy. MAD is essentially the average percentage error over the season. The difference between the predicted and observed survivals is a measure of survival accuracy. Model results and timing data were in good agreement from LWG to John Day Dam (JDA). Predictions of median passage days for the chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks were 0 and 2 days (respectively) later than observed. MAD for chin1pit and lgrStlhd stocks at JDA were 2.3% and 5.9% (respectively). Between JDA and BON modeling and timing data were not as well matched. At BON, median passage predictions were 6 and 10 days later than observed and MAD values were 7.8% and 16.0% respectively. Model results and survival data were in good agreement from LWG to MCN. COMPASS

  18. Childhood accidents: the relationship of family size to incidence, supervision, and rapidity of seeking medical care.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, Shepard; Eidelman, Arthur I; Zeidan, Amin; Applebaum, David; Raveh, David

    2005-09-01

    Large family size may be a risk factor for childhood accidents. A possible association with quality of child supervision and rapidity of seeking medical care has not been fully evaluated. To determine whether children with multiple siblings are at increased risk for accidents, to assess whether quality of child supervision varies with family size, and to evaluate the relationship of family size with the rapidity of seeking medical care after an accident. We prospectively studied 333 childhood accidents treated at TEREM (emergency care station) or the Shaare Zedek Medical Center. Details on family composition and the accident were obtained through parental interview. Family size of the study population was compared with that of the Jerusalem population. Families with one to three children (Group 1) and four or more children (Group 2) were compared with regard to type of supervision and different "Gap times" - the time interval from when the accident occurred until medical assistance was sought ("Gap 1"), the time from that medical contact until arrival at Shaare Zedek ("Gap 2"), and the time from the accident until arrival at Shaare Zedek for those children for whom interim medical assistance either was ("Gap 3A") or was not ("Gap 3B") sought. Children from families with 1, 2, 3, 4 and > or =5 children comprised 7.2%, 18.3%, 14.4%, 18.6% and 41.4% of our sample compared to 20.4%, 21.8%, 18.4%, 14.7% and 24.7% in the general population respectively. Children from Group 2 were less often attended to by an adult (44.5% vs. 62.0%) and more often were in the presence only of other children at the time of the accident (27.0% vs. 10.5%). Gaps 1, 2 and 3A in Group 2 (6.3 hours, 16.5 hours, 27.8 hours respectively) were longer than for Group 1 (2.7, 10.7, 13.3 hours respectively). The risk for accidents is increased among children from families with four or more children. The adequacy of child supervision in large families is impaired. There is a relative delay from the time

  19. The toxicology of heroin-related death: estimating survival times.

    PubMed

    Darke, Shane; Duflou, Johan

    2016-09-01

    The feasibility of intervention in heroin overdose is of clinical importance. The presence of 6-monoacetyl morphine (6MAM) in the blood is suggestive of survival times of less than 20-30 minutes following heroin administration. The study aimed to determine the proportions of cases in which 6MAM was present, and compare concentrations of secondary metabolites and circumstances of death by 6MAM status. Analysis of cases of heroin-related death presenting to the Department of Forensic Medicine Sydney, 1 January 2013-12 December 2014. Sydney, Australia. A total of 145 cases. The mean age was 40.5 years and 81% were male. Concentrations of 6MAM, free morphine, morphine-3-glucuronide (M3G) and morphine-6-glucuronide (M6G). Circumstances of death included bronchopneumonia, apparent sudden collapse, location and other central nervous system (CNS) depressants. 6MAM was detected in 43% [confidence interval (CI) = 35-51%] of cases. The median free morphine concentration of 6MAM-positive cases was more than twice that of cases without 6MAM (0.26 versus 0.12 mg/l). 6MAM-positive cases also had lower concentrations of the other major heroin metabolites: M3G (0.05 versus 0.29 mg/l), M6G (0.02 versus 0.05 mg/l) with correspondingly lower M3G/morphine (0.54 versus 2.71) and M6G/morphine (0.05 versus 0.50) ratios. Significant independent correlates of 6MAM were a higher free morphine concentration [odds ratio (OR) = 1.7], a lower M6G/free morphine ratio (OR = 0.5) and signs of apparent collapse (OR = 6.7). In heroin-related deaths in Sydney, Australia during 2013 and 2014, 6- monoacetyl morphine was present in the blood in less than half of cases, suggesting that a minority of cases had survival times after overdose of less than 20-30 minutes. The toxicology of heroin metabolites and the circumstances of death were consistent with 6- monoacetyl morphine as a proxy for a more rapid death. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  20. Truck accident and fatality rates calculated from California highway accident statistics for 1980 and 1981

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Smith, R.N.; Wilmot, E.L.

    California state highway accident rates for three types of truck vehicles (pickup, truck without trailer, and truck with trailer) were analyzed for 1980 and 1981 and for various road types in each of eleven state highway districts. Accident rates have not been available previously that are specific to truck vehicles, particularly truck with trailer. Reported data are presented that lead to several significant observations about truck accident rates: pickup truck accident rates are about twice the composite rates for all vehicle types; the fatality rates for trucks with trailer are nearly twice that for all vehicle types; fatality rates formore » trucks (without trailer) are comparable to the composite rates; and total accident and fatal-plus-injury rates for trucks with trailer are close to the composite rates in urban areas but higher in rural areas. The values for average total accident rates reported in 1981 are: 2.2 accidents per million vehicle miles (mvm) for pickups, 1.5 accidents per mvm for trucks, and 1.4 accidents per mvm for trucks with trailer. The values for average fatality rates reported in 1981 are: 3.8 fatalities per 100 mvm for pickups, 2.8 fatalities per 100 mvm for trucks, and 4.3 fatalities per 100 mvm for trucks with trailer. The reported rates for 1980 are approximately the same.« less

  1. Farm accidents and injuries among farm families and workers. A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Cummings, P H

    1991-09-01

    Farm accident facts traditionally have been difficult to collect because of the wide array of farm family and non-family involvement in farming practices. Areas commonly involved in farm related accidents include farm machinery, tractor overturns, farm animals, farm trucks, hand and power tools, household items, chemicals, and garden equipment. Two purposes of this descriptive study were to examine, over a 1 year period, the demographic features and types, severity, and mechanisms of injury among farm families and their workers in a representative county in South Carolina, and to develop a two part mail-out questionnaire for data collection relative to farm work related accidents. The researcher concluded that farm accidents are sparsely researched; that traditional data collection methods are difficult, expensive, and time consuming; and that mail-out questionnaires are not a very effective method of collecting data relative to farm accidents, since farmers proved very reluctant to report accidents.

  2. Psychiatric consequences of stress after a vehicle accident.

    PubMed

    Dickov, Aleksandra; Martinović-Mitrović, Sladjana; Vucković, Nikola; Siladji-Mladenović, Djendji; Mitrović, Dragan; Jovicević, Mirjana; Misić-Pavkov, Gordana

    2009-12-01

    Vehicle accidents are a common cause of disease and death among people over 30 years of age. Essentially, reaction to stress due to the vehicle accident does not differ from the reaction to other stress factors. There are still no uniform viewpoints about the kind of sequels and their percentage representation after vehicle accidents. The research was provided as a prospective study, included 150 subjects who had vehicle accident minimum 2 years prior to the examination. A questionnaire adjusted to the needs of the research and a battery of psychological tests was used. Affective disorders occurred in 35.33% of subjects, 65% of persons suffer from travel anxiety, 9% of the total number of examinees doesn't drive any more, 65% have somatisational dysfunctions of the vegetative nervous system, while the posttraumatic stress disorder is present in 36% of subjects. In 87.4% of persons psychiatric consequences last over two years. Long term consequences in 60% of subjects occur as a combination of multiple psychiatric disorders, so the posttraumatic stress disorder and affective disorders never occur one at a time.

  3. 1995 Kentucky traffic accident facts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1995-01-01

    KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1995 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

  4. 1996 Kentucky traffic accident facts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1996-01-01

    KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1996 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

  5. 1998 Kentucky traffic accident facts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-01-01

    KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1998 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

  6. 1997 Kentucky traffic accident facts

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-01-01

    KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1997 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

  7. Sleep Apnea Related Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents is Reduced by Continuous Positive Airway Pressure: Swedish Traffic Accident Registry Data

    PubMed Central

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Häbel, Henrike; Nerman, Olle; Grote, Ludger

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). The rate of MVAs in patients suspected of having OSA was determined and the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was investigated. Design: MVA rate in patients referred for OSA was compared to the rate in the general population using data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Registry (STRADA), stratified for age and calendar year. The risk factors for MVAs, using demographic and polygraphy data, and MVA rate before and after CPAP were evaluated in the patient group. Setting: Clinical sleep laboratory and population based control (n = 635,786). Patients: There were 1,478 patients, male sex 70.4%, mean age 53.6 (12.8) y. Interventions: CPAP. Measurements and Results: The number of accidents (n = 74) among patients was compared with the expected number (n = 30) from a control population (STRADA). An increased MVA risk ratio of 2.45 was found among patients compared with controls (P < 0.001). Estimated excess accident risk was most prominent in the elderly patients (65–80 y, seven versus two MVAs). In patients, driving distance (km/y), EDS (Epworth Sleepiness score ≥ 16), short habitual sleep time (≤ 5 h/night), and use of hypnotics were associated with increased MVA risk (odds ratios 1.2, 2.1, 2.7 and 2.1, all P ≤ 0.03). CPAP use ≥ 4 h/night was associated with a reduction of MVA incidence (7.6 to 2.5 accidents/1,000 drivers/y). Conclusions: The motor vehicle accident risk in this large cohort of unselected patients with obstructive sleep apnea suggests a need for accurate tools to identify individuals at risk. Sleep apnea severity (e.g., apnea-hypopnea index) failed to identify patients at risk. Citation: Karimi M, Hedner J, Häbel H, Nerman O, Grote L. Sleep apnea related risk of motor vehicle accidents is reduced by continuous positive airway pressure: Swedish traffic accident registry data. SLEEP 2015;38(3):341–349. PMID

  8. Do alcohol excise taxes affect traffic accidents? Evidence from Estonia.

    PubMed

    Saar, Indrek

    2015-01-01

    This article examines the association between alcohol excise tax rates and alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia. Monthly time series of traffic accidents involving drunken motor vehicle drivers from 1998 through 2013 were regressed on real average alcohol excise tax rates while controlling for changes in economic conditions and the traffic environment. Specifically, regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors were estimated in order to deal with serial correlation in residuals. Counterfactual models were also estimated in order to check the robustness of the results, using the level of non-alcohol-related traffic accidents as a dependent variable. A statistically significant (P <.01) strong negative relationship between the real average alcohol excise tax rate and alcohol-related traffic accidents was disclosed under alternative model specifications. For instance, the regression model with ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1) errors revealed that a 1-unit increase in the tax rate is associated with a 1.6% decrease in the level of accidents per 100,000 population involving drunk motor vehicle drivers. No similar association was found in the cases of counterfactual models for non-alcohol-related traffic accidents. This article indicates that the level of alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia has been affected by changes in real average alcohol excise taxes during the period 1998-2013. Therefore, in addition to other measures, the use of alcohol taxation is warranted as a policy instrument in tackling alcohol-related traffic accidents.

  9. A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

    2011-07-01

    Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of

  10. Complaints of Poor Sleep and Risk of Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Philip, Pierre; Chaufton, Cyril; Orriols, Ludivine; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Amoros, Emmanuelle; Laumon, Bernard; Akerstedt, Torbjorn; Taillard, Jacques; Sagaspe, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Introduction This study aimed to determine the sleepiness-related factors associated with road traffic accidents. Methods A population based case-control study was conducted in 2 French agglomerations. 272 road accident cases hospitalized in emergency units and 272 control drivers matched by time of day and randomly stopped by police forces were included in the study. Odds ratios were calculated for the risk of road traffic accidents. Results As expected, the main predictive factor for road traffic accidents was having a sleep episode at the wheel just before the accident (OR 9.97, CI 95%: 1.57–63.50, p<0.05). The increased risk of traffic accidents was 3.35 times higher in subjects who reported very poor quality sleep during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.30–8.63, p<0.05), 1.69 times higher in subjects reporting sleeping 6 hours or fewer per night during the last 3 months (CI 95%: 1.00–2.85, p<0.05), 2.02 times higher in subjects reporting symptoms of anxiety or nervousness in the previous day (CI 95%: 1.03–3.97, p<0.05), and 3.29 times higher in subjects reporting taking more than 2 medications in the last 24 h (CI 95%: 1.14–9.44, p<0.05). Chronic daytime sleepiness measured by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, expressed heavy snoring and nocturnal leg movements did not explain traffic accidents. Conclusion Physicians should be attentive to complaints of poor sleep quality and quantity, symptoms of anxiety-nervousness and/or drug consumption in regular car drivers. PMID:25494198

  11. Accuracy of Virginia accident data.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1981-09-01

    The sources, magnitude, and characteristics of the inaccuracies in Virginia's police-reported accident data were examined. Five techniques were used to (1) determine how accident data are documented, (2) examine the contents of the accident report us...

  12. Work accidents and self-esteem of nursing professional in hospital settings

    PubMed Central

    dos Santos, Sérgio Valverde Marques; Macedo, Flávia Ribeiro Martins; da Silva, Luiz Almeida; Resck, Zelia Marilda Rodrigues; Nogueira, Denismar Alves; Terra, Fábio de Souza

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Objective: to analyze the occurrence of work accidents and the self-esteem of nurses in hospitals of a municipality of Minas Gerais. Method: descriptive-analytical and cross-sectional study developed with 393 nursing professionals from three hospitals of a municipality in southern Minas Gerais. The Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale and a questionnaire to characterize the population and work accidents were used for data collection. Data analysis was performed using Person's chi-squared test, Fisher's exact test, Cronbach's alpha, odds ratio and logistic regression. Results: of the professionals studied, 15% had suffered an accident at work and 70.2% presented high self-esteem. Through the analysis, it was observed that smoking, religious belief and an outstanding event in the career were significantly associated with work accidents. In relation to self-esteem, family income, length of time working in the profession and an outstanding event in the career presented significant associations. Conclusion: factors such as smoking, religious belief, family income, length of time working in the profession and an outstanding event in the career can cause professionals to have accidents and/or cause changes in self-esteem, which can compromise their physical and mental health and their quality of life and work. PMID:28443993

  13. Geographic disparities in colorectal cancer survival

    PubMed Central

    Henry, Kevin A; Niu, Xiaoling; Boscoe, Francis P

    2009-01-01

    Background Examining geographic variation in cancer patient survival can help identify important prognostic factors that are linked by geography and generate hypotheses about the underlying causes of survival disparities. In this study, we apply a recently developed spatial scan statistic method, designed for time-to-event data, to determine whether colorectal cancer (CRC) patient survival varies by place of residence after adjusting survival times for several prognostic factors. Methods Using data from a population-based, statewide cancer registry, we examined a cohort of 25,040 men and women from New Jersey who were newly diagnosed with local or regional stage colorectal cancer from 1996 through 2003 and followed to the end of 2006. Survival times were adjusted for significant prognostic factors (sex, age, stage at diagnosis, race/ethnicity and census tract socioeconomic deprivation) and evaluated using a spatial scan statistic to identify places where CRC survival was significantly longer or shorter than the statewide experience. Results Age, sex and stage adjusted survival times revealed several areas in the northern part of the state where CRC survival was significantly different than expected. The shortest and longest survival areas had an adjusted 5-year survival rate of 73.1% (95% CI 71.5, 74.9) and 88.3% (95% CI 85.4, 91.3) respectively, compared with the state average of 80.0% (95% CI 79.4, 80.5). Analysis of survival times adjusted for age, sex and stage as well as race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation attenuated the risk of death from CRC in several areas, but survival disparities persisted. Conclusion The results suggest that in areas where additional adjustments for race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation changed the geographic survival patterns and reduced the risk of death from CRC, the adjustment factors may be contributing causes of the disparities. Further studies should focus on specific and modifiable individual and

  14. Rates and causes of accidents for general aviation aircraft operating in a mountainous and high elevation terrain environment.

    PubMed

    Aguiar, Marisa; Stolzer, Alan; Boyd, Douglas D

    2017-10-01

    Flying over mountainous and/or high elevation terrain is challenging due to rapidly changeable visibility, gusty/rotor winds and downdrafts and the necessity of terrain avoidance. Herein, general aviation accident rates and mishap cause/factors were determined (2001-2014) for a geographical region characterized by such terrain. Accidents in single piston engine-powered aircraft for states west of the US continental divide characterized by mountainous terrain and/or high elevation (MEHET) were identified from the NTSB database. MEHET-related-mishaps were defined as satisfying any one, or more, criteria (controlled flight into terrain/obstacles (CFIT), downdrafts, mountain obscuration, wind-shear, gusting winds, whiteout, instrument meteorological conditions; density altitude, dust-devil) cited as factors/causal in the NTSB report. Statistics employed Poisson distribution and contingency tables. Although the MEHET-related accident rate declined (p<0.001) 57% across the study period, the high proportion of fatal accidents showed little (40-43%) diminution (χ 2 =0.935). CFIT and wind gusts/shear were the most frequent accident cause/factor categories. For CFIT accidents, half occurred in degraded visibility with only 9% operating under instrument flight rules (IFR) and the majority (85%) involving non-turbo-charged engine-powered aircraft. For wind-gust/shear-related accidents, 44% occurred with a cross-wind exceeding the maximum demonstrated aircraft component. Accidents which should have been survivable but which nevertheless resulted in a fatal outcome were characterized by poor accessibility (60%) and shoulder harness under-utilization (41%). Despite a declining MEHET-related accident rate, these mishaps still carry an elevated risk of a fatal outcome. Airmen should be encouraged to operate in this environment utilizing turbo-charged-powered airplanes and flying under IFR to assure terrain clearance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Occupational accidents among mototaxi drivers.

    PubMed

    Amorim, Camila Rego; de Araújo, Edna Maria; de Araújo, Tânia Maria; de Oliveira, Nelson Fernandes

    2012-03-01

    The use of motorcycles as a means of work has contributed to the increase in traffic accidents, in particular, mototaxi accidents. The aim of this study was to estimate and characterize the incidence of occupational accidents among the mototaxis registered in Feira de Santana, BA. This is a cross-sectional study with descriptive and census data. Of the 300 professionals registered at the Municipal Transportation Service, 267 professionals were interviewed through a structured questionnaire. Then, a descriptive analysis was conducted and the incidence of accidents was estimated based on the variables studied. Relative risks were calculated and statistical significance was determined using the chi-square test and Fisher's exact test, considering p < 0.05. Logistic regression was used in order to perform simultaneous adjustment of variables. Occupational accidents were observed in 10.5% of mototaxis. There were mainly minor injuries (48.7%), 27% of them requiring leaves of absence from work. There was an association between the days of work per week, fatigue in lower limbs and musculoskeletal complaints, and accidents. Knowledge of the working conditions and accidents involved in this activity can be of great importance for the adoption of traffic education policies, and to help prevent accidents by improving the working conditions and lives of these professionals.

  16. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. 835.11 Section 835.11 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD TESTIMONY OF BOARD EMPLOYEES § 835.11 Obtaining Board accident reports, factual...

  17. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. 835.11 Section 835.11 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD TESTIMONY OF BOARD EMPLOYEES § 835.11 Obtaining Board accident reports, factual...

  18. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. 835.11 Section 835.11 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD TESTIMONY OF BOARD EMPLOYEES § 835.11 Obtaining Board accident reports, factual...

  19. 49 CFR 835.11 - Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Obtaining Board accident reports, factual accident reports, and supporting information. 835.11 Section 835.11 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD TESTIMONY OF BOARD EMPLOYEES § 835.11 Obtaining Board accident reports, factual...

  20. Nonparametric estimation of median survival times with applications to multi-site or multi-center studies.

    PubMed

    Rahbar, Mohammad H; Choi, Sangbum; Hong, Chuan; Zhu, Liang; Jeon, Sangchoon; Gardiner, Joseph C

    2018-01-01

    We propose a nonparametric shrinkage estimator for the median survival times from several independent samples of right-censored data, which combines the samples and hypothesis information to improve the efficiency. We compare efficiency of the proposed shrinkage estimation procedure to unrestricted estimator and combined estimator through extensive simulation studies. Our results indicate that performance of these estimators depends on the strength of homogeneity of the medians. When homogeneity holds, the combined estimator is the most efficient estimator. However, it becomes inconsistent when homogeneity fails. On the other hand, the proposed shrinkage estimator remains efficient. Its efficiency decreases as the equality of the survival medians is deviated, but is expected to be as good as or equal to the unrestricted estimator. Our simulation studies also indicate that the proposed shrinkage estimator is robust to moderate levels of censoring. We demonstrate application of these methods to estimating median time for trauma patients to receive red blood cells in the Prospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study.

  1. Long Time to Diagnosis of Medulloblastoma in Children Is Not Associated with Decreased Survival or with Worse Neurological Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Brasme, Jean-Francois; Grill, Jacques; Doz, Francois; Lacour, Brigitte; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; Gaillard, Stephan; Delalande, Olivier; Aghakhani, Nozar; Puget, Stéphanie; Chalumeau, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Background The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. Patients and Methods This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. Results The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31–121, range 3–457). A long interval (defined as longer than the median) was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. Conclusions We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims. PMID:22485143

  2. Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation

    PubMed Central

    Stepanova, Ekaterina V.; Kondrashin, Anatoly V.; Sergiev, Vladimir P.; Morozova, Lola F.; Turbabina, Natalia A.; Maksimova, Maria S.; Brazhnikov, Alexey I.; Shevchenko, Sergei B.

    2017-01-01

    Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named “Increase road traffic safety”. Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper. PMID:28957427

  3. Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

    2016-01-01

    General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold

  4. Analysis of Crew Fatigue in AIA Guantanamo Bay Aviation Accident

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosekind, Mark R.; Gregory, Kevin B.; Miller, Donna L.; Co, Elizabeth L.; Lebacqz, J. Victor; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Flight operations can engender fatigue, which can affect flight crew performance, vigilance, and mood. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) requested the NASA Fatigue Countermeasures Program to analyze crew fatigue factors in an aviation accident that occurred at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. There are specific fatigue factors that can be considered in such investigations: cumulative sleep loss, continuous hours of wakefulness prior to the incident or accident, and the time of day at which the accident occurred. Data from the NTSB Human Performance Investigator's Factual Report, the Operations Group Chairman's Factual Report, and the Flight 808 Crew Statements were analyzed, using conservative estimates and averages to reconcile discrepancies among the sources. Analysis of these data determined the following: the entire crew displayed cumulative sleep loss, operated during an extended period of continuous wakefulness, and obtained sleep at times in opposition to the circadian disposition for sleep, and that the accident occurred in the afternoon window of physiological sleepiness. In addition to these findings, evidence that fatigue affected performance was suggested by the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) transcript as well as in the captain's testimony. Examples from the CVR showed degraded decision-making skills, fixation, and slowed responses, all of which can be affected by fatigue; also, the captain testified to feeling "lethargic and indifferent" just prior to the accident. Therefore, the sleep/wake history data supports the hypothesis that fatigue was a factor that affected crewmembers' performance. Furthermore, the examples from the CVR and the captain's testimony support the hypothesis that the fatigue had an impact on specific actions involved in the occurrence of the accident.

  5. Relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders.

    PubMed

    Lu, Guangquan; Cheng, Bo; Kuzumaki, Seigo; Mei, Bingsong

    2011-08-01

    Road traffic conflicts can be used to estimate the probability of accident occurrence, assess road safety, or evaluate road safety programs if the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts is known. To this end, we propose a model for the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders (DRs). DRs were installed in 50 cars in Beijing to collect records of traffic conflicts. Data containing 1366 conflicts were collected in 193 days. The hourly distributions of conflicts and accidents were used to model the relationship between accidents and conflicts. To eliminate time series and base number effects, we defined and used 2 parameters: average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour and average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour. A model was developed to describe the relationship between the two parameters. If A(i) = average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, and E(i) = average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, the relationship can be expressed as [Formula in text] (α>0, β>0). The average number of traffic accidents increases as the number of conflicts rises, but the rate of increase decelerates as the number of conflicts increases further. The proposed model can describe the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts in a simple manner. According to our analysis, the model fits the present data.

  6. Epidemiology of Accidents in Tile Factories of Mangalore City in Karnataka

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, S Ganesh; Rathnakar, UP; Harsha Kumar, HN

    2010-01-01

    Background: Occupational accidents are a major point of concern in industries. The academic community should take the first step to address the long-neglected concerns of occupational safety. Objective: To assess the prevalence and pattern of occupational accidents. Materials and Methods: A record-based, cross-sectional study was done in three tile factories of Mangalore city, in Karnataka. A total of 416 workers were analyzed for the year 2004, and data regarding age, sex, job duration, type and nature of injury, body parts involved, and time of injury were collected in a prestructured proforma. Statistical Analysis: Proportions, Chi-square test, Univariate and Multivariate analysis. Results: The overall prevalence rate of accidents was found to be 18.5%. It was found that almost around 86% of the accidents had affected the limbs (upper limb 24.7%, lower limb 61%), around half (52%) of the injuries were contributed by superficial injuries, 40% of accidents were due to stepping/striking against objects and while handling. Hand tools and machinery in motion contributed to around 20% of the accidents. Accidents were more common among the younger age group and less-experienced workers. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that the age group of 30-39 years had an independent significant association with accidents (OR = 0.21, P = 0.04). Conclusion: Accidents in tile industries are an important occupational health problem in this area of the country. There is a need for proper safety training of the workers. PMID:20606926

  7. Survival times for cats with hyperthyroidism treated with a 3.35 mCi iodine-131 dose: a retrospective study of 96 cases.

    PubMed

    Vagney, Marie; Desquilbet, Loic; Reyes-Gomez, Edouard; Delisle, Françoise; Devauchelle, Patrick; Rodriguez-Piñeiro, Maria Isabel; Rosenberg, Dan; de Fornel-Thibaud, Pauline

    2018-06-01

    Objectives Radioiodine ( 131 I) dose determination using radiotracer kinetic studies or scoring systems, and fixed relatively high 131 I dose (ie, 4 or 5 mCi) administration, are effective and associated with prolonged survival times for hyperthyroid cats. The latter method is less complicated but could expose patients and veterinary personnel to unnecessary levels of radiation. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the efficacy of a fixed 3.35 mCi 131 I dose for the treatment of 96 hyperthyroid cats with no length estimation for any palpated goitre ⩾20 mm, assess outcome and identify factors associated with survival. Methods Serum total thyroxine concentrations at diagnosis and at follow-up times, survival times and cause of death were recorded. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with time to any cause of death from 131 I therapy initiation. Results Administration of a median (interquartile range) dose of 3.35 mCi (3.27-3.44 mCi) radioiodine was an effective treatment in 94/96 cats, but two cats remained hyperthyroid. No death related to hyperthyroidism was recorded. Median survival time was 3.0 years; the 1 and 2 year survival rates after 131 I therapy were 90% and 78%, respectively. Low body weight (⩽3.1 kg; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 5.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.22-16.67; P <0.01) and male gender (aHR 2.63; 95% CI 1.01-7.14; P = 0.04) were independently associated with death, whereas age, prior treatment with antithyroid drugs, reason for treatment and pretreatment azotaemia were not. Conclusions and relevance This study suggests that a fixed 3.35 mCi 131 I dose treatment is effective for hyperthyroid cats with goitre(s) with a maximal length estimation <20 mm, that long-term survival can be achieved and that low body weight and male gender are significantly associated with shorter survival times.

  8. 28 CFR 301.106 - Repetitious accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Repetitious accidents. 301.106 Section 301.106 Judicial Administration FEDERAL PRISON INDUSTRIES, INC., DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INMATE ACCIDENT COMPENSATION General § 301.106 Repetitious accidents. If an inmate worker is involved in successive accidents...

  9. 28 CFR 301.106 - Repetitious accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Repetitious accidents. 301.106 Section 301.106 Judicial Administration FEDERAL PRISON INDUSTRIES, INC., DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INMATE ACCIDENT COMPENSATION General § 301.106 Repetitious accidents. If an inmate worker is involved in successive accidents...

  10. 49 CFR 195.50 - Reporting accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Reporting accidents. 195.50 Section 195.50 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.50 Reporting accidents. An accident...

  11. 49 CFR 195.50 - Reporting accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reporting accidents. 195.50 Section 195.50 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.50 Reporting accidents. An accident...

  12. Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data from Orthostatic Tilt Tests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. M.; Westby, Christian M.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

    2014-01-01

    Orthostatic Intolerance (OI) is the propensity to develop symptoms of fainting during upright standing. OI is associated with changes in heart rate, blood pressure and other measures of cardiac function. Problem: NASA astronauts have shown increased susceptibility to OI on return from space missions. Current methods for counteracting OI in astronauts include fluid loading and the use of compression garments. Multivariate trajectory spread is greater as OI increases. Pairwise comparisons at the same time within subjects allows incorporation of pass/fail outcomes. Path length, convex hull area, and covariance matrix determinant do well as statistics to summarize this spread Missing data problems Time series analysis need many more time points per OTT session treatment of trend? how incorporate survival information?

  13. Epidemiology of Accidents and Traumas in Qom Province in 2010

    PubMed Central

    Karami Joushin, Moharram; Saghafipour, Abedin; Noroozi, Mehdi; Soori, Hamid; Khedmati Morasae, Esmaeil

    2013-01-01

    Background Accidents are the most important public health challenges in our society. To prevent the accidents, the identification of their epidemiological features seems necessary. Objectives This study was conducted to reveal the epidemiological features of accidents and their casualties in Qom province in 2010. Patients and Methods A cross–sectional study was conducted on 29426 injured people referred to Qom province hospitals in 2010. Information about place, time, type of accidents and traumas and demographic variables had been collected in a veteran hospital. Data were analyzed by SPSS (version 16) software, using chi-square test and logistic regression. Results The incidence of accidents was about 27/1000 per year. The incidences of traffic accidents, motorcycle accidents, violence, burns, poisoning and suicides were 3, 1.6, 1.2, 0.3, 0.8, 0.37 cases per 1000 people respectively. Strikes (65%) and falls (12%) were the main causes of traumas. Forty-six percent of all injuries had occurred in 16 - 30 years groups. Most frequent accidents were as follows: fall (97%) and strike (50%) in < 12, violence (46%) in 20 - 29, suicide (71%) in 15 - 29, poisoning (34%) and burns (20%) among < 5 years old. Pedestrian and motorcycle accidents among +60 years old people were significantly higher than other (P = 0.000). Odds ratio for suicide among female was about 3.36 and in 16 - 30 age-group was 15.7 more than +60 years old group (P = 0.000). Conclusions Most traumas in Qom province occurred among younger age-groups and strikes and falls are the main causes of such traumas. Therefore, safeties to prevent falls and traffic regulations to reduce strikes can be effective strategies. PMID:24693520

  14. Epidemiology of accidents and traumas in qom province in 2010.

    PubMed

    Karami Joushin, Moharram; Saghafipour, Abedin; Noroozi, Mehdi; Soori, Hamid; Khedmati Morasae, Esmaeil

    2013-12-01

    Accidents are the most important public health challenges in our society. To prevent the accidents, the identification of their epidemiological features seems necessary. This study was conducted to reveal the epidemiological features of accidents and their casualties in Qom province in 2010. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 29426 injured people referred to Qom province hospitals in 2010. Information about place, time, type of accidents and traumas and demographic variables had been collected in a veteran hospital. Data were analyzed by SPSS (version 16) software, using chi-square test and logistic regression. The incidence of accidents was about 27/1000 per year. The incidences of traffic accidents, motorcycle accidents, violence, burns, poisoning and suicides were 3, 1.6, 1.2, 0.3, 0.8, 0.37 cases per 1000 people respectively. Strikes (65%) and falls (12%) were the main causes of traumas. Forty-six percent of all injuries had occurred in 16 - 30 years groups. Most frequent accidents were as follows: fall (97%) and strike (50%) in < 12, violence (46%) in 20 - 29, suicide (71%) in 15 - 29, poisoning (34%) and burns (20%) among < 5 years old. Pedestrian and motorcycle accidents among +60 years old people were significantly higher than other (P = 0.000). Odds ratio for suicide among female was about 3.36 and in 16 - 30 age-group was 15.7 more than +60 years old group (P = 0.000). Most traumas in Qom province occurred among younger age-groups and strikes and falls are the main causes of such traumas. Therefore, safeties to prevent falls and traffic regulations to reduce strikes can be effective strategies.

  15. Alcohol is the main factor in excess traffic accident fatalities in France.

    PubMed

    Reynaud, Michel; Le Breton, Patrick; Gilot, Bertrand; Vervialle, Françoise; Falissard, Bruno

    2002-12-01

    The aim of this study was to better evaluate the role of alcohol drinking in fatalities linked to road traffic accidents. The data of accidents were collected by a French official agency from police records, including many variables, among which was a blood alcohol test. They were analyzed in a descriptive way and toward a logistic regression. This exhaustive database comprised all of the 500,961 accidents with casualties that involved less than three vehicles (28,506 fatal accidents) recorded in France during a 52 month period (September 1995 to December 1999). The results of the alcohol tests were known in 78.7 of the drivers. The blood alcohol concentration was over the legal limit (0.50 g/L in France) in 9.8% of the accidents with casualties overall. Considering only fatal accidents, the rate of positive alcohol test in drivers was approximately 31.5%. This rate varied depending on the period and the type of accident, raising up to 71.2% in single-vehicle accidents (loss of control) at night during the weekend. The percentage of positive alcohol tests also dramatically increased following the number of fatalities per accident (87.5% in single-vehicle accidents during weekend nights involving three or more killed). The logistic regression in single-vehicle accident shows that the higher odds ratios concern the positive blood alcohol test (OR = 4.19), clearly overwhelming the other precipitating factors of accidents (age of driver, meteorological conditions, time of day, and other factors). Drinking alcohol before driving is a well known factor of accidents. We clearly demonstrate here that it is the main factor leading to deaths linked to road traffic accidents in France. The results are strengthened, and some analyses are allowed, by the exceptional features of our database. The authors emphasize the need for prevention measures.

  16. The special severity of occupational accidents in the afternoon: "the lunch effect".

    PubMed

    Camino López, Miguel A; Fontaneda, Ignacio; González Alcántara, Oscar J; Ritzel, Dale O

    2011-05-01

    The severity of occupational accidents suffered by construction workers at different hours of the day is analyzed in this study. It may be seen that the interval of time between 13:00 and 17:00 has incomprehensibly high rates of severe and fatal accidents in comparison with any other. We associate this higher accident rate with what we have termed the "lunch effect". We studied 10,239,303 labor accidents in Spain over the period 1990-2002. The relationships between potential risk factors for occupational accidents around lunch in Spain, especially alcohol consumption are studied, using two methods: analysis of national archival data of 2,155,954 occupational accidents suffered by workers in the construction sector over the period 1990-2002 and a survey study. This study also seeks to contribute the opinions of the workers themselves regarding the causes that might explain this situation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Tools for improving safety management in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet occupational accidents analysis period of 1998-2006.

    PubMed

    Aasjord, Halvard L

    2006-01-01

    Reporting of human accidents in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet has always been very difficult because there has been no tradition in making reports on all types of working accidents among fishermen, if the accident does not seem to be very serious or there is no economical incentive to report. Therefore reports are only written when the accidents are serious or if the fisherman is reported sick. Reports about an accident are sent to the insurance company, but another report should also be sent to the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD). Comparing of data from one former insurance company and NMD shows that the real numbers of injuries or serious accidents among Norwegian fishermen could be up to two times more than the numbers reported to NMD. Special analyses of 1690 accidents from the so called PUS-database (NMD) for the period 1998-2002, show that the calculated risk was 23.6 accidents per 1000 man-years. This is quite a high risk level, and most of the accidents in the fishing fleet were rather serious. The calculated risks are highest for fishermen on board the deep sea fleet of trawlers (28.6 accidents per 1000 man-years) and also on the deep sea fleet of purse seiners (28.9 accidents per 1000 man-years). Fatal accidents over a longer period of 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006 are also roughly analysed. These data from SINTEF's own database show that the numbers of fatal accidents have been decreasing over this long period, except for the two periods 1980-84 and 1990-94 where we had some casualties with total losses of larger vessels with the loss of most of the crew, but also many others typical work accidents on smaller vessels. The total numbers of registered Norwegian fishermen and also the numbers of man-years have been drastically reduced over the 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006. The risks of fatal accidents have been very steady over time at a high level, although there has been a marked risk reduction since 1990-94. For the last 8.5-year period of January 1998

  18. Economic situation and occupational accidents in Poland: 2002-2014 panel data regional study.

    PubMed

    Łyszczarz, Błażej; Nojszewska, Ewelina

    2018-01-07

    Occupational accidents constitute a substantial health and economic burden for societies around the world and a variety of factors determine the frequency of accidents at work. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the economic situation and the rate of occupational accidents in Poland. The analysis comprised data for 66 Polish sub-regions taken from the Central Statistical Office's Local Data Bank. The regression analysis with panel data for period 2002-2014 was applied to identify the relationships involved. Four measures of accidents were used: the rates of total occupational accidents, accidents among men and women separately as well as days of incapacity to work due to accidents at work per employee. Four alternative measures assessed the economic situation: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, average remuneration, the unemployment rate and number of dwelling permits. The confounding variables included were: employment in hazardous conditions and the size of enterprises. The results of the regression estimates show that the number of occupational accidents in Poland exhibits procyclical behavior, which means that more accidents are observed during the times of economic expansion. Stronger relationships were observed in the equations explaining men's accident rates as well as total rates. A weaker and not always statistically significant impact of economic situation was identified for women's accident rates and days of incapacity to work. The results have important implications for occupational health and safety actions. In the periods of higher work intensity employers should focus on appropriate training and supervision of inexperienced workers as well as on ensuring enough time for already experienced employees to recuperate. In terms of public health actions, policy makers should focus on scrutinizing working conditions, educating employers and counteracting possible discrimination of injured employees. Int J Occup Med

  19. Workplace accidents in materials transfer in Finland.

    PubMed

    Perttula, Pia; Salminen, Simo

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to show the proportion of workplace accidents related to materials transfer and to decide whether they were more serious than other kinds of workplace accidents. The research material for this study were statistics and data, available in Finland, regarding workplace accidents and fatal accidents. Twenty-five percent of studied fatal accidents were related to materials transfer; 26.9-27.7% of all workplace accidents in Finland in 2003-2007 were workplace accidents related to materials transfer. Over half (54.7%) of workplace accidents related to materials transfer caused disabilities lasting over 3 days. Most accidents related to materials transfer occurred to men aged 20-49 years. The most common types of injuries were dislocations, sprains and strains.

  20. 32 CFR 644.532 - Reporting accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Reporting accidents. 644.532 Section 644.532... and Improvements § 644.532 Reporting accidents. Immediately upon receipt of information of an accident... that an accident has occurred, the former using command should be requested to send qualified explosive...

  1. 49 CFR 845.40 - Accident report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Accident report. 845.40 Section 845.40... RULES OF PRACTICE IN TRANSPORTATION; ACCIDENT/INCIDENT HEARINGS AND REPORTS Board Reports § 845.40 Accident report. (a) The Board will issue a detailed narrative accident report in connection with the...

  2. What affects local community hospitals' survival in turbulent times?

    PubMed

    Chiang, Hung-Che; Wang, Shiow-Ing

    2015-06-01

    Hospital closures became a prevalent phenomenon in Taiwan after the implementation of a national health insurance program. A wide range of causes contributes to the viability of hospitals, but little is known about the situation under universal coverage health systems. The purpose of present study is to recognize the factors that may contribute to hospital survival under the universal coverage health system. This is a retrospective case-control study. Local community hospitals that contracted with the Bureau of National Health Insurance in 1998 and remained open during the period 1998-2011 are the designated cases. Controls are local community hospitals that closed during the same period. Using longitudinal representative health claim data, 209 local community hospitals that closed during 1998-2011 were compared with 165 that remained open. Variables related to institutional characteristics, degree of competition, characteristics of patients and financial performance were analyzed by logistic regression models. Hospitals' survival was positively related to specialty hospital, the number of respiratory care beds, the physician to population ratio, the number of clinics in the same region, a highly competitive market and the occupancy rate of elderly patients in the hospital. Teaching hospitals, investor-owned hospitals, the provision of obstetrics services or home care, and the number of medical centers or other local community hospitals may jeopardize the chance of survival. Factors-enhanced local hospitals to survive under the universal coverage health system have been identified. Hospital managers could manipulate these findings and adapt strategies for subsistence. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  3. Contributing factors in construction accidents.

    PubMed

    Haslam, R A; Hide, S A; Gibb, A G F; Gyi, D E; Pavitt, T; Atkinson, S; Duff, A R

    2005-07-01

    This overview paper draws together findings from previous focus group research and studies of 100 individual construction accidents. Pursuing issues raised by the focus groups, the accident studies collected qualitative information on the circumstances of each incident and the causal influences involved. Site based data collection entailed interviews with accident-involved personnel and their supervisor or manager, inspection of the accident location, and review of appropriate documentation. Relevant issues from the site investigations were then followed up with off-site stakeholders, including designers, manufacturers and suppliers. Levels of involvement of key factors in the accidents were: problems arising from workers or the work team (70% of accidents), workplace issues (49%), shortcomings with equipment (including PPE) (56%), problems with suitability and condition of materials (27%), and deficiencies with risk management (84%). Employing an ergonomics systems approach, a model is proposed, indicating the manner in which originating managerial, design and cultural factors shape the circumstances found in the work place, giving rise to the acts and conditions which, in turn, lead to accidents. It is argued that attention to the originating influences will be necessary for sustained improvement in construction safety to be achieved.

  4. 49 CFR 195.54 - Accident reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident reports. 195.54 Section 195.54... PIPELINE Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.54 Accident reports. (a) Each operator that experiences an accident that is required to be reported under § 195.50 shall as soon as...

  5. 49 CFR 801.32 - Accident reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Accident reports. 801.32 Section 801.32... PUBLIC AVAILABILITY OF INFORMATION Accident Investigation Records § 801.32 Accident reports. (a) The NTSB....S. civil transportation accidents, in accordance with 49 U.S.C. 1131(e). (b) These reports may be...

  6. Patients with type 2 diabetes benefit from primary care-based disease management: a propensity score matched survival time analysis.

    PubMed

    Drabik, Anna; Büscher, Guido; Thomas, Karsten; Graf, Christian; Müller, Dirk; Stock, Stephanie

    2012-08-01

    This study aimed to assess the impact of a nationwide German diabetes mellitus disease management program (DMP) on survival time and costs in comparison to routine care. The authors conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using routine administration data from Germany's largest sickness fund to identify insured suffering from diabetes in 2002. A total of 95,443 insured with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were born before January 1, 1962 met the defined inclusion criteria, resulting in 19,888 pairs of DMP participants and nonparticipants matched for socioeconomic and health status using propensity score matching methods. This is the first time propensity score matching has been used to evaluate a survival benefit of DMPs. In the time frame analyzed (3 years), mean survival time for the DMP group was 1045 days vs. 985 days for the routine care group (P<0.001). Mean daily hospital and total costs (including DMP administration and medical costs) were lower for the DMP group in the case of deceased insureds (92€ vs. 139€ and 122€ vs. 169€, respectively) as well as for censored observations (6€ vs. 7€ and 12.9€ vs. 13.4€, respectively). Mean daily drug costs were slightly lower for deceased insured in the DMP group (difference 0.6€), while no identifiable difference was found for censored observations. In this study, insured who were enrolled in a DMP for diabetes mellitus in the German Statutory Health Insurance showed a significant benefit in survival time. They also incurred lower costs compared to propensity score matched insured in routine care.

  7. Handle Yourself with Care: An Instructor's Guide for an Accident Prevention Course for Older Americans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Dorothea J.; Winsor, Richard J.

    Accidents are the first cause of crippling and, many times, of death, among older people. To help reduce the possibility of accidents among older people, the Administration on Aging and the National Safety Council have joined in preparing this booklet--a course of instruction in safety and accident prevention for Older Americans. It spells out…

  8. Civilian Helicopter Search and Rescue Accidents in the United States: 1980 Through 2013.

    PubMed

    Worley, Gordon H

    2015-12-01

    Helicopters are commonly used in search and rescue operations, and accidents have occurred during helicopter search and rescue (HSAR) missions. The purposes of this study were to investigate whether the HSAR accident rate in the United States could be determined and whether any common contributing factors or trends could be identified. Searches were conducted of the National Transportation Safety Board aviation accident database, the records of the major search and rescue and air medical organizations, and the medical and professional literature for reports of HSAR accidents. A total of 47 civilian HSAR accidents were identified during the study. Of these, 43% involved fatal injuries, compared with a 19% fatality rate for US helicopter general aviation accidents during the same time period and a 40% rate for helicopter emergency medical services. The HSAR accidents carried a significantly higher risk of fatal outcomes when compared with helicopter general aviation accidents (2-tailed Fisher's exact test, P < .0005). Accidents that occurred at night and under instrument meteorological conditions did not have a statistically significant increase in percentage of fatal outcomes (P > .05). The number of HSAR missions conducted annually could not be established, so an overall accident rate could not be calculated. Although the overall number of HSAR accidents is small, the percentage of fatal outcomes from HSAR accidents is significantly higher than that from general helicopter aviation accidents and is comparable to that seen for helicopter emergency medical services operations. Further study could help to improve the safety of HSAR flights. Copyright © 2015 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Instructor perceptions of the accident likelihood faced by recently trained glider pilots.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

    2011-12-01

    U.K. glider pilots with less than 10 h of solo flying time have been shown to have the highest accident rate and be most vulnerable to accidents during the 'final approach' phase. There were 58 gliding instructors who were asked to indicate what experience level they thought was associated with the highest accident rate and provide the reason behind their estimate. They were also asked to rank six flight phases by the relative probability of accidents to inexperienced pilots. The mean estimate for the accident peak was 296.3 h as pilot-in-command (SD = 337.9) with no instructor giving a figure of less than 10 h. Common reasons for these estimates were 'over-confidence', 'risk-taking', or 'complacency'. Instructors also ranked six flight phases by the likelihood of an accident being caused by inexperienced pilots during that phase. Despite the approach phase having the highest objective accident probability, it was only ranked fifth by instructors, indicating an underestimate of the danger it presents to newly trained pilots. The results suggest that instructors do not appreciate the high accident likelihood of early solo pilots or the main dangers they face. This has implications for the decisions made when sending pilots solo.

  10. Conditional survival is greater than overall survival at diagnosis in patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma.

    PubMed

    Miller, Benjamin J; Lynch, Charles F; Buckwalter, Joseph A

    2013-11-01

    Conditional survival is a measure of the risk of mortality given that a patient has survived a defined period of time. These estimates are clinically helpful, but have not been reported previously for osteosarcoma or Ewing's sarcoma. We determined the conditional survival of patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma given survival of 1 or more years. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database to investigate cases of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma in patients younger than 40 years from 1973 to 2009. The SEER Program is managed by the National Cancer Institute and provides survival data gathered from population-based cancer registries. We used an actuarial life table analysis to determine any cancer cause-specific 5-year survival estimates conditional on 1 to 5 years of survival after diagnosis. We performed a similar analysis to determine 20-year survival from the time of diagnosis. The estimated 5-year survival improved each year after diagnosis. For local/regional osteosarcoma, the 5-year survival improved from 74.8% at baseline to 91.4% at 5 years-meaning that if a patient with localized osteosarcoma lives for 5 years, the chance of living for another 5 years is 91.4%. Similarly, the 5-year survivals for local/regional Ewing's sarcoma improved from 72.9% at baseline to 92.5% at 5 years, for metastatic osteosarcoma 35.5% at baseline to 85.4% at 5 years, and for metastatic Ewing's sarcoma 31.7% at baseline to 83.6% at 5 years. The likelihood of 20-year cause-specific survival from the time of diagnosis in osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma was almost 90% or greater after 10 years of survival, suggesting that while most patients will remain disease-free indefinitely, some experience cancer-related complications years after presumed eradication. The 5-year survival estimates of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma improve with each additional year of patient survival. Knowledge of a changing risk profile is useful in counseling

  11. 49 CFR 230.22 - Accident reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Accident reports. 230.22 Section 230.22... Requirements § 230.22 Accident reports. In the case of an accident due to failure, from any cause, of a steam... persons, the railroad on whose line the accident occurred shall immediately make a telephone report of the...

  12. 49 CFR 230.22 - Accident reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident reports. 230.22 Section 230.22... Requirements § 230.22 Accident reports. In the case of an accident due to failure, from any cause, of a steam... persons, the railroad on whose line the accident occurred shall immediately make a telephone report of the...

  13. Designing an Experimental "Accident"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Picker, Lester

    1974-01-01

    Describes an experimental "accident" that resulted in much student learning, seeks help in the identification of nematodes, and suggests biology teachers introduce similar accidents into their teaching to stimulate student interest. (PEB)

  14. Workplace accidents and self-organized criticality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mauro, John C.; Diehl, Brett; Marcellin, Richard F.; Vaughn, Daniel J.

    2018-09-01

    The occurrence of workplace accidents is described within the context of self-organized criticality, a theory from statistical physics that governs a wide range of phenomena across physics, biology, geosciences, economics, and the social sciences. Workplace accident data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal a power-law relationship between the number of accidents and their severity as measured by the number of days lost from work. This power-law scaling is indicative of workplace accidents being governed by self-organized criticality, suggesting that nearly all workplace accidents have a common underlying cause, independent of their severity. Such power-law scaling is found for all labor categories documented by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our results provide scientific support for the Heinrich accident triangle, with the practical implication that suppressing the rate of severe accidents requires changing the attitude toward workplace safety in general. By creating a culture that values safety, empowers individuals, and strives to continuously improve, accident rates can be suppressed across the full range of severities.

  15. Accident epidemiology and the U.S. chemical industry: accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info.

    PubMed

    Kleindorfer, Paul R; Belke, James C; Elliott, Michael R; Lee, Kiwan; Lowe, Robert A; Feldman, Harold I

    2003-10-01

    This article reports on the data collected on one of the most ambitious government-sponsored environmental data acquisition projects of all time, the Risk Management Plan (RMP) data collected under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This RMP Rule 112(r) was triggered by the Bhopal accident in 1984 and led to the requirement that each qualifying facility develop and file with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency a Risk Management Plan (RMP) as well as accident history data for the five-year period preceding the filing of the RMP. These data were collected in 1999-2001 on more than 15,000 facilities in the United States that store or use listed toxic or flammable chemicals believed to be a hazard to the environment or to human health of facility employees or off-site residents of host communities. The resulting database, RMP*Info, has become a key resource for regulators and researchers concerned with the frequency and severity of accidents, and the underlying facility-specific factors that are statistically associated with accident and injury rates. This article analyzes which facilities actually filed under the Rule and presents results on accident frequencies and severities available from the RMP*Info database. This article also presents summaries of related results from RMP*Info on Offsite Consequence Analysis (OCA), an analytical estimate of the potential consequences of hypothetical worst-case and alternative accidental releases on the public and environment around the facility. The OCA data have become a key input in the evaluation of site security assessment and mitigation policies for both government planners as well as facility managers and their insurers. Following the survey of the RMP*Info data, we discuss the rich set of policy decisions that may be informed by research based on these data.

  16. Rough set approach for accident chains exploration.

    PubMed

    Wong, Jinn-Tsai; Chung, Yi-Shih

    2007-05-01

    This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.

  17. Road traffic accident related morbidity as seen in an accident and emergency department.

    PubMed

    Galloway, D J; Patel, A R

    1981-04-01

    This paper describes some of the findings of a prospective study of victims of road traffic accidents arriving at the Western Infirmary's Accident and Emergency Department over a period of 12 months. More than half the accidents occurred during leisure hours thus likely to stretch the resource of the hospital services. More than a third of the total number of patients were young male drivers. Serious injuries were significantly more often sustained among pedestrians who were often older. Victims of motor-cycle accidents less often escaped serious injuries. Blood ethanol studies on a small sample suggested that male pedestrians were often highly intoxicated. A public health education programme is regarded as a primary measure in preventing a large proportion of serious morbidity and mortality especially amongst pedestrians.

  18. 41 CFR 101-39.407 - Accident records.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2011-07-01 2007-07-01 true Accident records. 101-39...-INTERAGENCY FLEET MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 39.4-Accidents and Claims § 101-39.407 Accident records. If GSA's records of vehicle accidents indicate that a particular activity has had an unusually high accident frequency...

  19. [Accidents on Iceland's most dangerous roads].

    PubMed

    Bjarnason, Thóroddur; Arnarsson, Sveinn

    2012-02-01

    The objective of this paper was to identify the most dangerous segments of the Icelandic road system in terms of the number of accidents pr km and the rate of accidents pr million km travelled. First to identify the segments where the number of accidents is highest and where the risk of the individual traveller is the greatest. Second to evaluate if the association between the number and the rate of accidents is positive or negative. Third to identify the road segments that are the most dangerous in the sense of many accidents and great risk to individual travellers. Main roads outside urban centers were divided into 45 segments that were on average 78 km in length. Infrequently travelled roads and roads within urban centers were omitted. Information on the length of roads, traffic density and number of accidents was used to calculate the number of accidents per km and the rate of accidents per million km travelled. The correlation between the number and rate of accidents was calculated and the most dangerous road segments were identified by the average rank order on both dimensions. Most accidents pr km occurred on the main roads to and from the capital region, but also east towards Hvolsvöllur, north towards Akureyri and in the Mideast region of the country. The rate of accidents pr million km travelled was highest in the northeast region, in northern Snæfellsnes and in the Westfjords. The most dangerous roads on both dimensions were in Mideast, northern Westfjords, in the north between Blönduós and Akureyri and in northern Snæfellsnes. Most accidents pr km occurred on roads with a low accident rate pr million km travelled. It is therefore possible to reduce accidents the most by increasing road safety where it is already the greatest but that would however increase inequalities in road safety. Policy development in transportation is therefore in part a question of priorities in healthcare. Individual equality in safety and health are not always fully

  20. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

    1991-01-01

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

  1. Improvement in initial survival of spinal injuries: a 10-year audit.

    PubMed

    Tan, H B; Sloan, J P; Barlow, I F

    2005-08-01

    A 10-year retrospective study of all spinal injuries presenting to the Leeds Teaching Hospitals between 1991 and 2001. The hospitals provide secondary care to a population of 750,000 and tertiary care to a population of 2-3 million. In total 1119 spinal injuries were studied. The overall survival rate was 89%. The commonest age group for presentation was 25-29 years with a secondary peak in the seventh decade, a mean overall of 43 years. 66% of injuries occurred in males. The commonest cause was a fall from a height (44%), with road traffic accidents (RTA) causing 43%. Pedestrians were most at risk within the road traffic group, making up 63% of cases. Isolated cervical spine injuries made up 37% of all cases. Cervical fractures were most associated with neurological injury (50%). Immediate survival has increased over the decade from 83% in 1991 to 93% in 2001. The probability of survival was significant at P = 0.006 and actual survival at P = 0.012 (Pearson correlation). The causal analysis has not been carried out but it is thought likely that improved quality of care is responsible.

  2. Major differences in rates of occupational accidents between different nationalities of seafarers.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Henrik L; Laursen, Lise Hedgaard; Frydberg, Morten; Kristensen, Soeren

    2008-01-01

    Earlier studies and statistics have shown that merchant seafarers from the South East Asia had considerable lower accident rates when compared with seafarers from Western Europe. The purposes of the study were to investigate whether the earlier observations were sustained if further sources on occurrence of accidents were used and to identify specific causes of excess accident rates among certain nationalities. Occupational accidents aboard Danish merchant ships during one year were identified from four different sources. These included accidents reported to the maritime authorities, accidents reported to a mutual insurance company, files on medical costs reimbursed by the government and finally, accidents in which there has been contact to the radio medical service. Time at risk aboard was obtained from a register on all employment periods aboard merchant ships. A total of 943 accidents causing personal injury to a seafarer directly caused by work aboard were identified. Among these accidents, 499 had taken place aboard cargo ships in international trade. Only these were used in the detailed analysis. The accident rate for all identified accidents aboard cargo ships were 84 accidents per 1,000 years aboard. The crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) for East European seafarers was 0.88 and for South East Asians 0.38 using West European seafarers as reference. In a Poisson regression analysis, the IRR for South East Asians was 0.29 (0.22-0.38). In an analysis including only more serious accidents, IRR for South East Asians rose to 0.36 (0.26-0.48). This study indicates that seafarers from South East Asia, mainly the Philippines, may have a genuine lower risk of occupational accidents in comparison with seafarers from Western and Eastern Europe. Differences in approach to safety and risk taking between South East Asian and European seafarers should be identified and positives attitudes included in accident preventing programmes. Main messages Seafarers from South East

  3. [Forensic Analysis of 498 Road Traffic Accident Deaths in Haikou City].

    PubMed

    Bai, R; Chen, M

    2017-12-01

    To analyse the characteristics of road traffic accident deaths in Haikou city, and to provide reference for the identification of causes of death and the preventive measures. Totally 498 road traffic accident deaths accepted by the Traffic Police Branch of Haikou City Public Security Bureau in 2014-2016 were collected, and the related parameters such as sex, age, time of the accidents, travel mode of the victims, the types of vehicle and the cause of death were analysed. Most victims aged 21-40 years old with the sex ratio of 3:1, and the accidents mainly happened in March, April, May and October and peaked at 6:01-8:00 and 20:01-22:00 per day. Riding motorbike and electric bicycle, as travel modes, had the highest accident incidence (30.9%). The vast majority of involved vehicles were motorbike and electric bicycle (57.4%). The most common cause of death was craniocerebral injury, followed by chest and abdominal injury. The autopsy of road traffic accident deaths plays an important role in identification of death manner and responsibility confirmation. Copyright© by the Editorial Department of Journal of Forensic Medicine

  4. 49 CFR 655.44 - Post-accident testing.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... the employer is unable to perform a post-accident test within the required period noted in paragraphs... 49 Transportation 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Post-accident testing. 655.44 Section 655.44... of Testing § 655.44 Post-accident testing. (a) Accidents. (1) Fatal accidents. (i) As soon as...

  5. 22 CFR 102.17 - Reports on accident.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reports on accident. 102.17 Section 102.17... Accidents Abroad Foreign Aircraft Accidents Involving United States Persons Or Property § 102.17 Reports on accident. When an accident occurs to a foreign aircraft in the district of a Foreign Service post and...

  6. 22 CFR 102.17 - Reports on accident.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Reports on accident. 102.17 Section 102.17... Accidents Abroad Foreign Aircraft Accidents Involving United States Persons Or Property § 102.17 Reports on accident. When an accident occurs to a foreign aircraft in the district of a Foreign Service post and...

  7. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  8. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  9. Analysing child mortality in Nigeria with geoadditive discrete-time survival models.

    PubMed

    Adebayo, Samson B; Fahrmeir, Ludwig

    2005-03-15

    Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In developing countries, mortality rates are not only influenced by socio-economic, demographic and health variables but they also vary considerably across regions and districts. In this paper, we analysed child mortality in Nigeria with flexible geoadditive discrete-time survival models. This class of models allows us to measure small-area district-specific spatial effects simultaneously with possibly non-linear or time-varying effects of other factors. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The application is based on the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Our method assesses effects at a high level of temporal and spatial resolution not available with traditional parametric models, and the results provide some evidence on how to reduce child mortality by improving socio-economic and public health conditions. Copyright (c) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Accelerating Child Survival and Development in Dark Times.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grant, James P.

    Measures were proposed that would enable UNICEF, in association with others and despite prevailing difficult economic circumstances, to more effectively bring well-being and hope to hundreds of millions of children. Specific proposals were designed to help most countries accelerate child survival and development. Most particularly, it was…

  11. A novel grey-fuzzy-Markov and pattern recognition model for industrial accident forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edem, Inyeneobong Ekoi; Oke, Sunday Ayoola; Adebiyi, Kazeem Adekunle

    2017-10-01

    Industrial forecasting is a top-echelon research domain, which has over the past several years experienced highly provocative research discussions. The scope of this research domain continues to expand due to the continuous knowledge ignition motivated by scholars in the area. So, more intelligent and intellectual contributions on current research issues in the accident domain will potentially spark more lively academic, value-added discussions that will be of practical significance to members of the safety community. In this communication, a new grey-fuzzy-Markov time series model, developed from nondifferential grey interval analytical framework has been presented for the first time. This instrument forecasts future accident occurrences under time-invariance assumption. The actual contribution made in the article is to recognise accident occurrence patterns and decompose them into grey state principal pattern components. The architectural framework of the developed grey-fuzzy-Markov pattern recognition (GFMAPR) model has four stages: fuzzification, smoothening, defuzzification and whitenisation. The results of application of the developed novel model signify that forecasting could be effectively carried out under uncertain conditions and hence, positions the model as a distinctly superior tool for accident forecasting investigations. The novelty of the work lies in the capability of the model in making highly accurate predictions and forecasts based on the availability of small or incomplete accident data.

  12. 49 CFR 655.44 - Post-accident testing.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... results may be used only when the employer is unable to perform a post-accident test within the required... 49 Transportation 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Post-accident testing. 655.44 Section 655.44... of Testing § 655.44 Post-accident testing. (a) Accidents. (1) Fatal accidents. (i) As soon as...

  13. [Occupational accidents due to exposure to biological material in the multidisciplinary team of the emergency service].

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Adriana Cristina; Lopes, Aline Cristine Souza; Paiva, Maria Henriqueta Rocha Siqueira

    2009-09-01

    This transversal, survey-based research was carried out with a multiprofessional emergency care team in Belo Horizonte, between June and December 2006. The study aimed at estimating the incidence of occupational accidents by exposure to biological material, post-accidents conducts and demographic determinant factors. The study applied a structured questionnaire and descriptive analyses, as well as incidence calculations and logistic regression. The incidence of accidents with biological material reached 20.6%, being 40.8% by sharp materials and 49.0% by body fluids; 35.3% of the accidents took place among physicians and 24.0% among nurses. Post-accidents procedures: no medical assessment, 63.3%; under-notification, 81.6%; no conduct, 55.0%; and no serological follow-up, 61.2%. Factors associated with accidents: working time in the institution (Odds Ratio--OR, 2.84; Credible Interval--CI 95%-1.22-6.62); working in advanced support units (OR = 4.18; CI 95%--1.64-10.64); and interaction between working time in the institution and working in Basic Support Unit (OR 0.27; CI 95%--0.07-1.00). In order to reduce accidents, the implementation of post-accident protocols and follow-up, as well as under-notification norms, are suggested.

  14. NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patlach, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Manned space flight is risky business. Accidents have occurred and may occur in the future. NASA's manned space flight programs, with all their successes, have had three fatal accidents, one at the launch pad and two in flight. The Apollo fire and the Challenger and Columbia accidents resulted in a loss of seventeen crewmembers. Russia's manned space flight programs have had three fatal accidents, one ground-based and two in flight. These accidents resulted in the loss of five crewmembers. Additionally, manned spacecraft have encountered numerous close calls with potential for disaster. The NASA Johnson Space Center Flight Safety Office has documented more than 70 spacecraft incidents, many of which could have become serious accidents. At the Johnson Space Center (JSC), medical contingency personnel are assigned to a Mishap Investigation Team. The team deploys to the accident site to gather and preserve evidence for the Accident Investigation Board. The JSC Medical Operations Branch has developed a flight surgeon accident response training class to capture the lessons learned from the Columbia accident. This presentation will address the NASA Mishap Investigation Team's medical objectives, planned response, and potential issues that could arise subsequent to a manned spacecraft accident. Educational Objectives are to understand the medical objectives and issues confronting the Mishap Investigation Team medical personnel subsequent to a human space flight accident.

  15. Nonparametric estimation of median survival times with applications to multi-site or multi-center studies

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Sangbum; Hong, Chuan; Zhu, Liang; Jeon, Sangchoon; Gardiner, Joseph C.

    2018-01-01

    We propose a nonparametric shrinkage estimator for the median survival times from several independent samples of right-censored data, which combines the samples and hypothesis information to improve the efficiency. We compare efficiency of the proposed shrinkage estimation procedure to unrestricted estimator and combined estimator through extensive simulation studies. Our results indicate that performance of these estimators depends on the strength of homogeneity of the medians. When homogeneity holds, the combined estimator is the most efficient estimator. However, it becomes inconsistent when homogeneity fails. On the other hand, the proposed shrinkage estimator remains efficient. Its efficiency decreases as the equality of the survival medians is deviated, but is expected to be as good as or equal to the unrestricted estimator. Our simulation studies also indicate that the proposed shrinkage estimator is robust to moderate levels of censoring. We demonstrate application of these methods to estimating median time for trauma patients to receive red blood cells in the Prospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study. PMID:29772007

  16. Long-Term Survival of Individuals Born Small and Large for Gestational Age

    PubMed Central

    Wennerström, E. Christina M.; Simonsen, Jacob; Melbye, Mads

    2015-01-01

    Background Little is known on long-term survival and causes of death among individuals born small or large for gestational age. This study investigates birth weight in relation to survival and causes of death over time. Methods A national cohort of 1.7 million live-born singletons in Denmark was followed during 1979–2011, using the Danish Civil Registration System, the Medical Birth Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. Cox proportional hazards were estimated for the impact of small (SGA) and large (LGA) gestation weight and mortality overall, by age group and birth cohort. Results Compared to normal weight children, SGA children were associated with increased risk of dying over time. Though most of the deaths occurred during the first year of life, the cumulative mortality risk was increased until 30 years of age. The hazard ratios [HR] for dying among SGA children ages <2 years were: 3.47 (95% CI, 3.30–3.64) and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.60–1.87) in 30 years and older. HR for dying among SGA adults (20–29 years) were: 1.20 (95% CI, 0.99–1.46) in years 1979–1982 and 1.61 (95% CI, 1.04–2.51) in years 1989–1994. The SGA born had increased risk of dying from infection, heart disease, respiratory disease, digestive disease, congenital malformation, perinatal conditions, and accidents, suicide, and homicide. Individuals born LGA were associated with decreased mortality risk, but with increased risk of dying from malignant neoplasm. Conclusions Survival has improved independently of birth weight the past 30 years. However, children born SGA remain at significantly increased risk of dying up till they turn 30 years of age. Individuals born LGA have lower mortality risk but only in the first two years of life. PMID:26390219

  17. Single vehicle accident study

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1977-11-01

    The general objectives of this study were to determine the nature and causes of single vehicle accidents, describe their resulting consequences, and develop recommendations to effect a reduction in the frequency and severity of these accidents. Analy...

  18. Parent-Child Communication and Marijuana Initiation: Evidence Using Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Nonnemaker, James M.; Silber-Ashley, Olivia; Farrelly, Matthew C.; Dench, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    This study supplements existing literature on the relationship between parent-child communication and adolescent drug use by exploring whether parental and/or adolescent recall of specific drug-related conversations differentially impact youth's likelihood of initiating marijuana use. Using discrete-time survival analysis, we estimated the hazard of marijuana initiation using a logit model to obtain an estimate of the relative risk of initiation. Our results suggest that parent-child communication about drug use is either not protective (no effect) or—in the case of youth reports of communication—potentially harmful (leading to increased likelihood of marijuana initiation). PMID:22958867

  19. Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data for Evaluating Orthostatic Tilt Test Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Koslovsky, Matthew D.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

    2018-01-01

    Head-up tilt (HUT) tests often are used in research to measure orthostatic intolerance (OI) (inability to appropriately control blood pressure while upright) in clinical populations and otherwise healthy individuals after interventions. Post-space flight orthostatic intolerance is a well-known phenomenon, and countermeasures to its development has been an active area of research at NASA. In the NASA HUT protocol, subjects lie horizontally on an automatic tilt table for baseline measurements before being raised to 80deg head-up tilt for a defined period of time or until signs or symptoms of presyncope ensues (light-headedness, nausea, dizziness, sweating, weakness or fainting). Multiple measures are collected to evaluate the cardiovascular system's ability to respond appropriately to the orthostatic challenge. However if the intended duration of the HUT is short, the ability to detect changes in OI due to an intervention or its prevention by a countermeasure may be limited by a small number of failures to permit comparisons based on survival time alone. Thus, the time-trajectory of the cardiovascular data becomes an important additional source of information. In particular, we will show how various measures of trajectory variability can effectively augment survival analysis for the assessment of OI in a joint model when high censoring rates are present.

  20. The relationship between annual survival rate and migration distance in mallards: an examination of the time-allocation hypothesis for the evolution of migration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hestbeck, J.B.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Predictions of the time-allocation hypothesis were tested with several a posteriori analyses of banding data for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). The time-allocation hypothesis states that the critical difference between resident and migrant birds is their allocation of time to reproduction on the breeding grounds and survival on the nonbreeding grounds. Residents have higher reproduction and migrants have higher survival. Survival and recovery rates were estimated by standard band-recovery methods for banding reference areas in the central United States and central Canada. A production-rate index was computed for each reference area with data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service May Breeding Population Survey and July Production Survey. An analysis of covariance was used to test for the effects of migration distance and time period (decade) on survival, recovery, and production rates. Differences in migration chronology were tested by comparing direct-recovery distributions for different populations during the fall migration. Differences in winter locations were tested by comparing distributions of direct recoveries reported during December and January. A strong positive relationship was found between survival rate, and migration distance for 3 of the 4 age and sex classes. A weak negative relationship was found between recovery rate and migration distance. No relationship was found between production rate and migration distance. During the fall migration, birds from the northern breeding populations were located north of birds from the southern breeding populations. No pattern could be found in the relative locations of breeding and wintering areas. Although our finding that survival rate increased with migration distance was consistent with the time-allocation hypothesis, our results on migration chronology and location of wintering areas were not consistent with the mechanism underlying the time-allocation hypothesis. Neither this analysis nor other recent

  1. Individual quality, survival variation and patterns of phenotypic selection on body condition and timing of nesting in birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blums, P.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lindberg, M.; Mednis, A.

    2005-01-01

    Questions about individual variation in 'quality' and fitness are of great interest to evolutionary and population ecologists. Such variation can be investigated using either a random effects approach or an approach that relies on identifying observable traits that are themselves correlated with fitness components. We used the latter approach with data from 1,925 individual females of three species of ducks (tufted duck, Aythya fuligula; common pochard, Aythya ferina; northern shoveler, Anas clypeata) sampled on their breeding grounds at Engure Marsh, Latvia, for over 15 years. Based on associations with reproductive output, we selected two traits, one morphological (relative body condition) and one behavioral (relative time of nesting), that can be used to characterize individual females over their lifetimes. We then asked whether these traits were related to annual survival probabilities of nesting females. We hypothesized quadratic, rather than monotonic, relationships based loosely on ideas about the likely action of stabilizing selection on these two traits. Parameters of these relationships were estimated directly using ultrastructural models embedded within capture-recapture-band-recovery models. Results provided evidence that both traits were related to survival in the hypothesized manner. For all three species, females that tended to nest earlier than the norm exhibited the highest survival rates, but very early nesters experienced reduced survival and late nesters showed even lower survival. For shovelers, females in average body condition showed the highest survival, with lower survival rates exhibited by both heavy and light birds. For common pochard and tufted duck, the highest survival rates were associated with birds of slightly above-average condition, with somewhat lower survival for very heavy birds and much lower survival for birds in relatively poor condition. Based on results from this study and previous work on reproduction, we conclude that

  2. New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

    2005-01-01

    Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

  3. Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

    PubMed

    Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

    2010-10-01

    Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

  4. Single pilot IFR accident data analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, D. F.

    1983-01-01

    The aircraft accident data recorded by the National Transportation and Safety Board (NTSR) for 1964-1979 were analyzed to determine what problems exist in the general aviation (GA) single pilot instrument flight rule (SPIFR) environment. A previous study conducted in 1978 for the years 1964-1975 provided a basis for comparison. This effort was generally limited to SPIFR pilot error landing phase accidents but includes some SPIFR takeoff and enroute accident analysis as well as some dual pilot IFR accident analysis for comparison. Analysis was performed for 554 accidents of which 39% (216) occurred during the years 1976-1979.

  5. [Maculopathy caused by Nd:YAG laser accident].

    PubMed

    Blümel, C; Brosig, J

    1999-02-01

    Since the construction of the first laser in the sixties and the extended use in medicine, technology and hobby the number of accidents has increased. Appreciated to therapy concepts are missing at the time. A 19 year-old-man was hit by the impulse of an military hand-held rangefinder (Nd:YAG with a wavelength of 1064 nm) on the right eye. The visual acuity dropped to 1/35 and a central scotoma with metamorphopsia occurred immediatly after the accident. The ophthalmological findings showed a distinct submacular hemorrhage. The therapy with Prednisolon intravenous and daily parabulbar, vitamin C, indomethacin systemical and lokal application resulted in an increase of visual acuity up to 0.4 and a reduction of central scotoma from 8 degrees to 2 degrees. Systemical and local use of antiphlogistic and antiinflamatoric substances may partially reduce the vision limitating scar formation. Application of antioxidants to neutralize the toxic radicals that arise by tissue decay should be given additionally to the cyclopegic medication. Special attention should be payed to the prevention of such laser accidents.

  6. Radiation damage aspects of the chernobyl accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parmentier, N.; Nenot, J. C.

    During the night of 25 to 26 April 1986, the most severe nuclear accident occurred at the Chernobyl power station, about 150km north of Kiev, in the Ukraine. It resulted in the irradiation of 237 workers at dose levels justifying medical care. The most severe cases (115) were hospitalized in Moscow, with 20 patients with doses higher than 6 Gy. In most cases, the treatment was classical, based on transfusion of red cells and platelets, and heavy supportive therapy. For 19 patients with severe aplasia, transplantations of bone marrow (13) or foetal liver (6) were decided. Of these patients only one survived, which justifies the statement from U.S.S.R. physicians: after an accident the indications of grafting are limited and its risks may not justify its use. Most of the complications were related to radiation burns which involved 56 victims and resulted in fatal outcomes in at least 19 patients. The population was evacuated from a 30 km zone around the site; based on direct measurements and calculations, the collective dose was evaluated at 1.6 × 10 4 man Sv, with an individual average lower than 250 mSv. The European part of U.S.S.R. with 75 million persons is supposed to have received a collective dose likely to increase the natural mortality by less than 0.1%. The numbers with cancer in the Northern Hemisphere might increase by 0.004% over the next 50 years.

  7. 137Cs in soil and fallout around Zagreb (Croatia) at the time of the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Šoštarić, Marko; Petrinec, Branko; Babić, Dinko

    2013-12-01

    This paper addresses the noticeable increase of 137Cs activity concentrations in soil and fallout in the area surrounding Zagreb (Croatia) that occurred at the time of the 2011 Fukushima accident. This topic is important for public health as 137Cs is highly toxic due to its long half-life of radioactive decay and chemical similarity to potassium. 137Cs concentrations in fallout were much greater than in soil, but remained present longer in the latter. While being detectable in our measurements, 137Cs did not spread through the food chain in amounts exceeding the maximum allowed level of radioactive food contamination. However, more thorough and consistent measurements need to be done in order to establish the precise activity trends of 137Cs in Zagreb soil and fallout.

  8. Evaluation of clinical and histologic factors associated with survival time in dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy: 30 cases (2011-2014).

    PubMed

    Moore, Antony S; Rassnick, Kenneth M; Frimberger, Angela E

    2017-09-01

    OBJECTIVE To determine histologic and clinical factors associated with survival time in dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy and a chemotherapy protocol in which an anthracycline was alternated with lomustine. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 30 dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma. PROCEDURES Medical records of 3 facilities were reviewed to identify dogs treated for stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma between June 2011 and October 2014. Information collected included signalment, disease staging data, whether anemia was present, date of splenectomy, chemotherapy protocol, adverse effects, and date of death or last follow-up. Histologic slides were reviewed and scored by pathologists. Associations between variables of interest and survival data were evaluated statistically. RESULTS Median survival time for all dogs was 158 days (range, 55 to 560 days), and the 1-year survival rate was 16%. On multivariate analysis, only the histologically determined mitotic score was significantly associated with survival time. The median survival time of 292 days for dogs with a mitotic score of 0 (< 11 mitoses/10 hpf; n = 9) was significantly longer than that for dogs with higher scores (indicating higher mitotic rates); the 1-year survival rate for these dogs was 42%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested that future studies should take histologic factors, particularly mitotic rate, as well as tumor stage into account when assessing treatment effects on survival time of dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma.

  9. Determination of influence factors and accident rates for the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Phillips, J.S.; Clauss, D.B.; Blower, D.F.

    1994-04-01

    Operating environments, such as road type, road location, and time of day, play an important role in the observed accident rates of heavy trucks used in general commerce. These same factors influence the accident rate of the Armored Tractor/Safe Secure Trailer (AT/SST) used by the Department of Energy to transport hazardous cargos within the continental United States. This report discusses the development of accident rate influence factors. These factors, based on heavy trucks used in general commerce, are used to modify the observed overall AT/SST accident rate to account for the different operating environments.

  10. Profile of non-fatal injuries due to road traffic accidents from a industrial town in India.

    PubMed

    Bayan, Pankaj; Bhawalkar, J S; Jadhav, S L; Banerjee, Amitav

    2013-01-01

    India has one of the highest road traffic accident rates in the world. To lessen this burden, information on the contributing factors is necessary. We studied a series of cases of non-fatal road traffic accidents in two tertiary care hospitals in Pimpri, Pune, India. A total of 212 non-fatal road traffic accidents admitted over a period of one year in these two hospitals constituted the study sample. The study variables were, the gender of the accident victims, mode of accident, days of week on which the accident took place, time of day when the injury was sustained, part of the body injured, nature of injury, and self-reported reasons for the accident. data were summarized using percentages. The Chi-square test for goodness of fit was applied, to see whether there was any association between the different weekdays or time of day and the accidents. MALE : female ratio was almost 5 : 1, which was statistically significant (Chi-Square for goodness of fit = 95.11, df = 1, P < 0.0001). The maximum accidents occurred on Sundays and Mondays and the least around midweek (Wednesday). This pattern was also statistically significant (Chi-square for goodness of fit = 30.09, df = 6, P < 0.001). Pedestrians were the most vulnerable group, followed by drivers and pillions of two wheelers. These categories of road users contributed to almost 80% of the cases of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs). Accidents were more likely in the time zone of 8 pm to midnight, followed by 4 pm to 8 pm (Chi-square for goodness of fit = 89.58, df = 5, P < 0.0001). A majority of the patients sustained multiple injuries followed by injuries to the lower limbs. A majority reported impaired visibility and fatigue as the cause of accident. Almost half (46.22%) of the injured admitted to drinking alcohol on a regular basis. Wide pavements and safe zebra crossings should be provided for pedestrians, as the highest casualty in this study were pedestrians. More accidents occurred on Sundays and Mondays and in the

  11. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

    PubMed

    Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2017-09-01

    This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

  12. The comparison of proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models in analyzing the first birth interval survival data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faruk, Alfensi

    2018-03-01

    Survival analysis is a branch of statistics, which is focussed on the analysis of time- to-event data. In multivariate survival analysis, the proportional hazards (PH) is the most popular model in order to analyze the effects of several covariates on the survival time. However, the assumption of constant hazards in PH model is not always satisfied by the data. The violation of the PH assumption leads to the misinterpretation of the estimation results and decreasing the power of the related statistical tests. On the other hand, the accelerated failure time (AFT) models do not assume the constant hazards in the survival data as in PH model. The AFT models, moreover, can be used as the alternative to PH model if the constant hazards assumption is violated. The objective of this research was to compare the performance of PH model and the AFT models in analyzing the significant factors affecting the first birth interval (FBI) data in Indonesia. In this work, the discussion was limited to three AFT models which were based on Weibull, exponential, and log-normal distribution. The analysis by using graphical approach and a statistical test showed that the non-proportional hazards exist in the FBI data set. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the log-normal AFT model was the most appropriate model among the other considered models. Results of the best fitted model (log-normal AFT model) showed that the covariates such as women’s educational level, husband’s educational level, contraceptive knowledge, access to mass media, wealth index, and employment status were among factors affecting the FBI in Indonesia.

  13. Diagnostics of Loss of Coolant Accidents Using SVC and GMDH Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sung Han; No, Young Gyu; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Park, Soo-Yong

    2011-02-01

    As a means of effectively managing severe accidents at nuclear power plants, it is important to identify and diagnose accident initiating events within a short time interval after the accidents by observing the major measured signals. The main objective of this study was to diagnose loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) using artificial intelligence techniques, such as SVC (support vector classification) and GMDH (group method of data handling). In this study, the methodologies of SVC and GMDH models were utilized to discover the break location and estimate the break size of the LOCA, respectively. The 300 accident simulation data (based on MAAP4) were used to develop the SVC and GMDH models, and the 33 test data sets were used to independently confirm whether or not the SVC and GMDH models work well. The measured signals from the reactor coolant system, steam generators, and containment at a nuclear power plant were used as inputs to the models, and the 60 sec time-integrated values of the input signals were used as inputs into the SVC and GMDH models. The simulation results confirmed that the proposed SVC model can identify the break location and the proposed GMDH models can estimate the break size accurately. In addition, even if the measurement errors exist and safety systems actuate, the proposed SVC and GMDH models can discover the break locations without a misclassification and accurately estimate the break size.

  14. Investigations on optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident in a VVER-1000 pressurized water reactor

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tusheva, P.; Schaefer, F.; Kliem, S.

    2012-07-01

    The reactor safety issues are of primary importance for preserving the health of the population and ensuring no release of radioactivity and fission products into the environment. A part of the nuclear research focuses on improvement of the safety of existing nuclear power plants. Studies, research and efforts are a continuing process at improving the safety and reliability of existing and newly developed nuclear power plants at prevention of a core melt accident. Station blackout (loss of AC power supply) is one of the dominant accidents taken into consideration at performing accident analysis. In case of multiple failures of safetymore » systems it leads to a severe accident. To prevent an accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences, accident management measures must be performed. The present paper outlines possibilities for application and optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident. Assessed is the behaviour of the nuclear power plant during a station blackout accident without accident management measures and with application of primary/secondary side oriented accident management measures. Discussed are the possibilities for operators ' intervention and the influence of the performed accident management measures on the course of the accident. Special attention has been paid to the effectiveness of the passive feeding and physical phenomena having an influence on the system behaviour. The performed simulations show that the effectiveness of the secondary side feeding procedure can be limited due to an early evaporation or flashing effects in the feed water system. The analyzed cases show that the effectiveness of the accident management measures strongly depends on the initiation criteria applied for depressurization of the reactor coolant system. (authors)« less

  15. Analysis of general-aviation accidents using ATC radar records

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wingrove, R. C.; Bach, R. E., Jr.

    1982-01-01

    It is pointed out that general aviation aircraft usually do not carry flight recorders, and in accident investigations the only available data may come from the Air Traffic Control (ATC) records. A description is presented of a technique for deriving time-histories of aircraft motions from ATC radar records. The employed procedure involves a smoothing of the raw radar data. The smoothed results, in combination with other available information (meteorological data and aircraft aerodynamic data) are used to derive the expanded set of motion time-histories. Applications of the considered analytical methods are related to different types of aircraft, such as light piston-props, executive jets, and commuter turboprops, as well as different accident situations, such as takeoff, climb-out, icing, and deep stall.

  16. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents.

    PubMed

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K

    2011-12-01

    Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved in these accidents, we recommend ruling out of internal injury

  17. Evaluation Metrics Applied to Accident Tolerant Fuels

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton; Jon Carmack; Frank Goldner

    2014-10-01

    The safe, reliable, and economic operation of the nation’s nuclear power reactor fleet has always been a top priority for the United States’ nuclear industry. Continual improvement of technology, including advanced materials and nuclear fuels, remains central to the industry’s success. Decades of research combined with continual operation have produced steady advancements in technology and have yielded an extensive base of data, experience, and knowledge on light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance under both normal and accident conditions. One of the current missions of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is to develop nuclear fuelsmore » and claddings with enhanced accident tolerance for use in the current fleet of commercial LWRs or in reactor concepts with design certifications (GEN-III+). Accident tolerance became a focus within advanced LWR research upon direction from Congress following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, resulting tsunami, and subsequent damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant complex. The overall goal of ATF development is to identify alternative fuel system technologies to further enhance the safety, competitiveness and economics of commercial nuclear power. Enhanced accident tolerant fuels would endure loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer period of time than the current fuel system while maintaining or improving performance during normal operations. The U.S. DOE is supporting multiple teams to investigate a number of technologies that may improve fuel system response and behavior in accident conditions, with team leadership provided by DOE national laboratories, universities, and the nuclear industry. Concepts under consideration offer both evolutionary and revolutionary changes to the current nuclear fuel system. Mature concepts will be tested in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory beginning in Summer 2014 with additional concepts

  18. [Occupational accidents in an oil refinery in Brazil].

    PubMed

    Souza, Carlos Augusto Vaz de; Freitas, Carlos Machado de

    2002-10-01

    Work in oil refineries involves the risk of minor to major accidents. National data show the impact of accidents on this industry. A study was carried out to describe accident profile and evaluate the adequacy of accident reporting system. Data on all accidents reported in an oil refinery in the state of Rio de Janeiro for the year 1997 were organized and analyzed. The study population consisted of 153 injury cases, 83 hired and 69 contracted workers. The variables were: type of accident, operation mode and position of the worker injured. Among hired workers, minor accidents predominated (54.2%) and they occurred during regular operation activities (62.9%). Among contracted workers, there also predominated minor accidents (75.5%) in a higher percentage, but they occurred mainly during maintenance activities (96.8%). The study results showed that there is a predominance of accidents in lower hierarchy workers, and these accidents occur mainly during maintenance activities. There is a need to improve the company's accident reporting system and accident investigation procedures.

  19. [Human risk factors and injuries due to road accidents: analysis of current data].

    PubMed

    Marchetti, Pierpaolo; Morandi, Anna; Lombardo, Carlo; Gigli Berzolari, Francesca; Bruno, Vincenzo; Marinoni, Alessandra

    2009-01-01

    several studies have shown that most road accidents are due to human factors, and that these are strongly linked to a drive's age and sex. The aim of this study is to test the role that some human factors play in road accidents by analysing current road accident data in the Province of Pavia, in Northern Italy. road accidents that occurred in 2004 were analysed by integrating the paper database of the vehicle licensing office, properly computerised, with the 911 database of the Province of Pavia. This study has been carried out by analysing 1.347 road accidents and the associated 2.908 drivers of motorised vehicles. Northern Italy, the Province of Pavia. the death rate of drivers of 2-wheeled vehicles is almost nine times higher than that of 4-wheeled vehicles. Analysis shows that females are twice as exposed to road accidents than males; it also shows the benefits of extensive road education training and of being aged 30-64 and older. Drivers who have already been punished and have had their driving license scores reduced are likely to respond rapidly when in a dangerous situation and also to be without blame after an accident. Motorcycle riders are 25 times more likely to suffer serious injury than drivers of cars. Additionally, the risk of a woman being seriously injured is higher than for a man. females, young drivers and motorcycle riders who have not previously been penalised for a previous traffic violation have a higher risk of being seriously injured; females and motorcycle riders are also at greater risk of being seriously injured. We hope that this analysis will be used to improve preventative interventions for road accidents.r.

  20. 32 CFR 634.28 - Traffic accident investigation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Traffic accident investigation. 634.28 Section... accident investigation. Installation law enforcement personnel must make detailed investigations of accidents described in this section: (a) Accidents involving Government vehicles or Government property on...

  1. Credible investigation of air accidents.

    PubMed

    Smart, K

    2004-07-26

    Within the United Kingdom the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has been used as a model for the other transport modes accident investigation bodies. Government Ministers considered that the AAIB's approach had established the trust of the public and the aviation industry in its ability to conduct independent and objective investigations. The paper will examine the factors that are involved in establishing this trust. They include: the investigation framework; the actual and perceived independence of the accident investigating body; the aviation industry's safety culture; the qualities of the investigators and the quality of their liaison with bereaved families those directly affected by the accidents they investigate.

  2. Bicycle accidents among teenagers

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-10-01

    The report shows that knowledge of traffic rules does not contribute to reduce the accident risk, or injury risk of young cyclists. Running red lights and cycling in the wrong direction in one-way traffic increase accident and injury risk. Using cycl...

  3. Analysis of accidents and injuries on motorcycles in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Berrones-Sanz, Luis David

    2017-01-01

    To analyze the type of injuries and the characteristics and geographical distribution of road accidents where motorcycles were involved in Mexico. A descriptive analysis of second-hand information sources was conducted, including the number of accidents (N = 41,881), total number of injured people (N = 13,916) and medical expenses (N = 9,111) associated to motorcycle accidents during 2014. Motorcycles represent 13.14% of the total number of deaths in road accidents in Mexico, and the Southeast region of Mexico registers the highest proportion of fatal injuries. Of the total number of motorcycles, 1.84% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.83-1.86) were involved in a collision. 3.64 (95% CI: 3.39-3.89) people died and 105.5 (95% CI: 104.1-106.8) were injured in every 10,000. Out of the total number of injuries, 76.6% were male and 53.74% were women. 55.1% of deaths were caused by intracranial trauma. Only 16.6% wore a helmet at the time of the accident, and those not wearing a helmet had a 2.11 (odds ratio [OR]: 2.1; CI 95%: 1.8-2.4) higher chance of head injury. Regarding the severity of the crash, those occurred in suburban areas (OR: 6.58; CI 95%: 5.69-7.60), in unpaved surfaces (OR: 4.13; CI 95%: 3.04-5.61), after low alcohol consumption (OR: 1.89; CI 95%: 1.46-2.44), at night (OR: 2.24; CI 95%: 1.95-2.57) and on weekends (OR: 1.65; CI 95%: 1.44-1.90), had the highest chance of turning into a fatal accident. In spite of the progress made in terms of road safety, motorcycle accidents are still increasing, and the use of a helmet is still proportionally low. More information on these groups and risk factors needs to be available so people are better informed. Also, regulations need improvements regarding the use of security equipment like helmets in order to reduce injuries and fatal accidents.

  4. Injury protection and accident causation parameters for vulnerable road users based on German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS.

    PubMed

    Otte, Dietmar; Jänsch, Michael; Haasper, Carl

    2012-01-01

    Within a study of accident data from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), vulnerable road users are investigated regarding injury risk in traffic accidents. GIDAS is the largest in-depth accident study in Germany. Due to a well-defined sampling plan, representativeness with respect to the federal statistics is also guaranteed. A hierarchical system ACASS (Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps) was developed in GIDAS, describing the human causation factors in a chronological sequence. The accordingly classified causation factors - derived from the systematic of the analysis of human accident causes ("7 steps") - can be used to describe the influence of accident causes on the injury outcome. The bases of the study are accident documentations over ten years from 1999 to 2008 with 8204 vulnerable road users (VRU), of which 3 different groups were selected as pedestrians n=2041, motorcyclists n=2199 and bicyclists n=3964, and analyzed on collisions with cars and trucks as well as vulnerable road users alone. The paper will give a description of the injury pattern and injury mechanisms of accidents. The injury frequencies and severities are pointed out considering different types of VRU and protective measures of helmet and clothes of the human body. The impact points are demonstrated on the car, following to conclusion of protective measures on the vehicle. Existing standards of protection devices as well as interdisciplinary research, including accident and injury statistics, are described. With this paper, a summarization of the existing possibilities on protective measures for pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists is given and discussed by comparison of all three groups of vulnerable road users. Also the relevance of special impact situations and accident causes mainly responsible for severe injuries are pointed out, given the new orientation of research for the avoidance and reduction of accident patterns. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Time-of-Day Dependent Neuronal Injury After Ischemic Stroke: Implication of Circadian Clock Transcriptional Factor Bmal1 and Survival Kinase AKT.

    PubMed

    Beker, Mustafa Caglar; Caglayan, Berrak; Yalcin, Esra; Caglayan, Ahmet Burak; Turkseven, Seyma; Gurel, Busra; Kelestemur, Taha; Sertel, Elif; Sahin, Zafer; Kutlu, Selim; Kilic, Ulkan; Baykal, Ahmet Tarik; Kilic, Ertugrul

    2018-03-01

    Occurrence of stroke cases displays a time-of-day variation in human. However, the mechanism linking circadian rhythm to the internal response mechanisms against pathophysiological events after ischemic stroke remained largely unknown. To this end, temporal changes in the susceptibility to ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury were investigated in mice in which the ischemic stroke induced at four different Zeitgeber time points with 6-h intervals (ZT0, ZT6, ZT12, and ZT18). Besides infarct volume and brain swelling, neuronal survival, apoptosis, ischemia, and circadian rhythm related proteins were examined using immunohistochemistry, Western blot, planar surface immune assay, and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tools. Here, we present evidence that midnight (ZT18; 24:00) I/R injury in mice resulted in significantly improved infarct volume, brain swelling, neurological deficit score, neuronal survival, and decreased apoptotic cell death compared with ischemia induced at other time points, which were associated with increased expressions of circadian proteins Bmal1, PerI, and Clock proteins and survival kinases AKT and Erk-1/2. Moreover, ribosomal protein S6, mTOR, and Bad were also significantly increased, while the levels of PRAS40, negative regulator of AKT and mTOR, and phosphorylated p53 were decreased at this time point compared to ZT0 (06:00). Furthermore, detailed proteomic analysis revealed significantly decreased CSKP, HBB-1/2, and HBA levels, while increased GNAZ, NEGR1, IMPCT, and PDE1B at midnight as compared with early morning. Our results indicate that nighttime I/R injury results in less severe neuronal damage, with increased neuronal survival, increased levels of survival kinases and circadian clock proteins, and also alters the circadian-related proteins.

  6. Time-specific patterns of nest survival for ducks and passerines breeding in North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shaffer, Terry L.; Grant, Todd A.

    2012-01-01

    In many bird species, survival can vary with the age of the nest, with the date a nest was initiated, or among years within the same nesting area. A literature review showed that patterns of survival vary in relation to nest age and date and are often contradictory. Inconsistencies could be a result of temporal variation in the environment or life-history differences among species. We examined patterns of nest survival in relation to nest age, date, and year for several duck and passerine species nesting at a single location in North Dakota during 1998–2003. We predicted that if environment shaped nest survival patterns, then temporal patterns in survival might be similar among three species of upland nesting ducks, and also among three species of grassland passerines nesting at the same site. We expected that survival patterns would differ between ducks and passerines because of relatively disparate life histories and differences in predators that prey on their nests. Nest survival was rarely constant among years, seasonally, or with age of the nest for species that we studied. As predicted, the pattern of survival was similar among duck species, driven mainly by differences in nest survival associated with nest initiation date. The pattern of survival also was similar among passerine species, but nest survival was more influenced by nest age than by date. Our findings suggest that some but not all variation in temporal patterns of nest survival in grassland birds reported in the literature can be explained on the basis of temporal environmental variation. Because patterns of survival were dissimilar among ducks and passerines, it is likely that mechanisms such as predation or brood parasitism have variable influences on productivity of ducks and passerines nesting in the same area. Our results indicate that biologists and managers should not assume that temporal environmental variations, especially factors that affect nest survival, act similarly on all

  7. 10 CFR 835.1304 - Nuclear accident dosimetry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Nuclear accident dosimetry. 835.1304 Section 835.1304... Nuclear accident dosimetry. (a) Installations possessing sufficient quantities of fissile material to... nuclear accident is possible, shall provide nuclear accident dosimetry for those individuals. (b) Nuclear...

  8. 10 CFR 835.1304 - Nuclear accident dosimetry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Nuclear accident dosimetry. 835.1304 Section 835.1304... Nuclear accident dosimetry. (a) Installations possessing sufficient quantities of fissile material to... nuclear accident is possible, shall provide nuclear accident dosimetry for those individuals. (b) Nuclear...

  9. 10 CFR 835.1304 - Nuclear accident dosimetry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Nuclear accident dosimetry. 835.1304 Section 835.1304... Nuclear accident dosimetry. (a) Installations possessing sufficient quantities of fissile material to... nuclear accident is possible, shall provide nuclear accident dosimetry for those individuals. (b) Nuclear...

  10. 10 CFR 835.1304 - Nuclear accident dosimetry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Nuclear accident dosimetry. 835.1304 Section 835.1304... Nuclear accident dosimetry. (a) Installations possessing sufficient quantities of fissile material to... nuclear accident is possible, shall provide nuclear accident dosimetry for those individuals. (b) Nuclear...

  11. 10 CFR 835.1304 - Nuclear accident dosimetry.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Nuclear accident dosimetry. 835.1304 Section 835.1304... Nuclear accident dosimetry. (a) Installations possessing sufficient quantities of fissile material to... nuclear accident is possible, shall provide nuclear accident dosimetry for those individuals. (b) Nuclear...

  12. Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005.

    PubMed

    Laursen, Lise H; Hansen, Henrik L; Jensen, Olaf C

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures.

  13. The association between car accident fatalities and children's fears: A study in seven EU countries.

    PubMed

    Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Sowa, David; Keyes, Katherine; Husky, Mathilde; Fermanian, Christophe; Bitfoi, Adina; Carta, Mauro Giovanni; Koç, Ceren; Goelitz, Dietmar; Lesinskiene, Sigita; Mihova, Zlatka; Otten, Roy; Pez, Ondine

    2017-01-01

    Children's fear of a car accident occurring to parents or themselves has been used as a concrete example to illustrate one of the symptoms of anxiety disorders such as separation anxiety and generalized anxiety. However, its usage across countries may be questionable where the prevalence of this specific type of injury differs. This cross-sectional study compares samples from seven diverse European countries (Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Romania, Turkey) to see if an environmental exposure, car accident death rate per 100,000 people (country-wide from WHO data), is associated with children's self-report of car accident fears. In this study, 6-11 year-old children were surveyed by a diagnostic instrument (Dominic Interactive) about several situations and asked if they believed they were similar to a fictional child depicted in said situations. Mothers were surveyed for additional sociodemographic information. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates including mother's age, mother's education, single parenting, and mother's professional inactivity. We report a monotonic relationship between higher car accident death rates and the prevalence of children reporting fear of parent's or own accident. Relative to a reference of 3.9 deaths per 100,000 people, children's odds of reporting fear of parent's accident ranged from 1.99 (95% CI 1.51-2.61) times to 4.84 (95% CI 3.68-6.37) times as the risk of death by car accident increased across countries. A similar result arose from fear of child's own accident, with significant ORs ranging from 1.91 (95% CI 1.53-2.40) to 2.68 (95% CI 2.07-3.47) alongside increased death rates. Given that reporting of these fears accompanies correspondingly high accident death rates, the pertinence of using fear of car accidents as an illustration for some diagnostic item for mental disorders cross-nationally appears to be an issue.

  14. Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

    PubMed

    Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

    2007-11-01

    Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

  15. Secondary school accident reporting in one education authority.

    PubMed

    Williams, W R; Latif, A H A; Sibert, J

    2002-01-01

    Secondary schools appear to have very different accident rates when they are compared on the basis of accident report returns. The variation may be as a result of real differences in accident rates or different reporting procedures. This study investigates accident reporting from secondary schools and, in particular, the role of the school nurse. Accident form returns covering a 2-year period were collected for statistical analysis from 13 comprehensive schools in one local education authority in Wales. School sites were visited in the following school year to obtain information about accident records held on site and accident reporting procedures. The main factors determining the number of school accident reports submitted to the education authority relate to differences in recording and reporting procedures, such as the employment of a nurse and the policy of the head teacher/safety officer on submitting accident returns. Accident and emergency department referrals from similar schools may show significant differences in specific injuries and their causes. The level of school accident activity cannot be gauged from reports submitted to the education authority. Lack of incentives for collecting good accident data, in conjunction with the degree of complacency in the current system, suggest that future accident rates and reporting activity are unlikely to change.

  16. Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

    2009-08-15

    Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

  17. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    PubMed

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. [Childhood accidents: relevant epidemiologic data].

    PubMed

    Julé, Laure; Chevallier, Bertrand

    2009-02-20

    Injuries resulting from accidents are a major public heath problem. Accidents account for 700 deaths among French children up to 15 years and near 300 concern home accidents. Accidental injuries represent the first cause of children mortality, hospitalisations and sequelae. The lack of data registration supports the need of epidemiological tools to appreciate the burden of the public heath problem and the basis of a surveillance system to evaluate strategy prevention.

  19. 48 CFR 852.236-87 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Accident prevention. 852... Accident prevention. As prescribed in 836.513, insert the following clause: Accident Prevention (SEP 1993....236-13, Accident Prevention. However, only the Contracting Officer may issue an order to stop all or...

  20. 48 CFR 852.236-87 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 852... Accident prevention. As prescribed in 836.513, insert the following clause: Accident Prevention (SEP 1993....236-13, Accident Prevention. However, only the Contracting Officer may issue an order to stop all or...

  1. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    PubMed Central

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  2. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study.

    PubMed

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-04-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions.

  3. Assessing the effect of a partly unobserved, exogenous, binary time-dependent covariate on survival probabilities using generalised pseudo-values.

    PubMed

    Pötschger, Ulrike; Heinzl, Harald; Valsecchi, Maria Grazia; Mittlböck, Martina

    2018-01-19

    Investigating the impact of a time-dependent intervention on the probability of long-term survival is statistically challenging. A typical example is stem-cell transplantation performed after successful donor identification from registered donors. Here, a suggested simple analysis based on the exogenous donor availability status according to registered donors would allow the estimation and comparison of survival probabilities. As donor search is usually ceased after a patient's event, donor availability status is incompletely observed, so that this simple comparison is not possible and the waiting time to donor identification needs to be addressed in the analysis to avoid bias. It is methodologically unclear, how to directly address cumulative long-term treatment effects without relying on proportional hazards while avoiding waiting time bias. The pseudo-value regression technique is able to handle the first two issues; a novel generalisation of this technique also avoids waiting time bias. Inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting is used to account for the partly unobserved exogenous covariate donor availability. Simulation studies demonstrate unbiasedness and satisfying coverage probabilities of the new method. A real data example demonstrates that study results based on generalised pseudo-values have a clear medical interpretation which supports the clinical decision making process. The proposed generalisation of the pseudo-value regression technique enables to compare survival probabilities between two independent groups where group membership becomes known over time and remains partly unknown. Hence, cumulative long-term treatment effects are directly addressed without relying on proportional hazards while avoiding waiting time bias.

  4. Long-term effects of ionizing radiation after the Chernobyl accident: Possible contribution of historic dose.

    PubMed

    Omar-Nazir, Laila; Shi, Xiaopei; Moller, Anders; Mousseau, Timothy; Byun, Soohyun; Hancock, Samuel; Seymour, Colin; Mothersill, Carmel

    2018-08-01

    The impact of the Chernobyl NPP accident on the environment is documented to be greater than expected, with higher mutation rates than expected at the current, chronic low dose rate. In this paper we suggest that the historic acute exposure and resulting non-targeted effects (NTE) such as delayed mutations and genomic instability could account at least in part for currently measured mutation rates and provide an initial test of this concept. Data from Møller and Mousseau on the phenotypic mutation rates of Chernobyl birds 9-11 generations post the Chernobyl accident were used and the reconstructed dose response for mutations was compared with delayed reproductive death dose responses (as a measure of genomic instability) in cell cultures exposed to a similar range of doses. The dose to birds present during the Chernobyl NPP accident was reconstructed through the external pathway due to Cs-137 with an estimate of the uncertainty associated with such reconstruction. The percentage of Chernobyl birds several generations after the accident without mutations followed the general shape of the clonogenic survival percentage of the progeny of irradiated cells, and it plateaued at low doses. This is the expected result if NTE of radiation are involved. We suggest therefore, that NTE induced by the historic dose may play a role in generating mutations in progeny many generations following the initial disaster. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Timing of referral for lung transplantation for cystic fibrosis: overemphasis on FEV1 may adversely affect overall survival.

    PubMed

    Doershuk, C F; Stern, R C

    1999-03-01

    (1) Report our experience with referral for lung transplantation. (2) Review survival in cvstic fibrosis (CF) patients without lung transplantation after FEV1 remains < 30% predicted for 1 years. Retrospective review. A university hospital CF center. (1) Forty-five patients referred for lung transplantation evaluation, and (2) 178 patients without Burkholderia sp infection, with the above FEVl criterion. Survival. (1) One- and 2-year survival after transplantation was 55% and 45%, respectively. However, among patients without transplants with FEVl < 30% predicted, median survival, 1986 to 1990, ie, before the transplant era, was 4.6 years with 25% living > 9 years (before 1986, 25% lived > 6 vears). (2) Survival after transplantation was not correlated to any of the following: age, sex, genotype, FEVI percent predicted, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, or with waiting time before transplantation, and did not seem to be correlated to serum bicarbonate or percent ideal body weight. Four of five patients already infected with Burkholderia species died within 5 months of transplantation; the fifth died at 17 months. All five died of pulmonary or extrapulmonarv infection with Burkholderia species Use of FEV! < 30% predicted to automatically establish transplantation eligibility could lead to decreased overall survival for CF patients. Referral for evaluation and transplantation should also be based on oxygen requirement, rate of deterioration, respiratory microbiology, quality of life, frequency of IV antibiotic therapy, and other considerations. If pulmonary status has unexpectedly improved when the patient is at or near the top of the waiting list, total survival may be improved by "inactivating the patient" until progression is again evident.

  6. An epidemiologic survey of road traffic accidents in Iran: analysis of driver-related factors.

    PubMed

    Moafian, Ghasem; Aghabeigi, Mohammad-Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Hoseinzadeh, Amin; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri; Sarikhani, Yaser

    2013-01-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) and its related injuries contribute to a significant portion of the burden of diseases in Iran. This paper explores the association between driver-related factors and RTA in the country. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Iran and all data regarding RTAs from March 20, 2010 to June 10, 2010 were obtained from the Traffic Police Department. We included 538 588 RTA records, which were classified to control for the main confounders: accident type, final cause of accident, time of accident and driver-related factors. Driver-related factors included sex, educational level, license type, type of injury, duration between accident and getting the driving license and driver's error type. A total of 538 588 drivers (91.83% male, sex ratio of almost 13:1) were involved in the RTAs. Among them 423 932 (78.71%) were uninjured; 224 818 (41.74%) had a diploma degree. Grade 2 driving license represented the highest proportion of all driving licenses (290 811, 54.00%). The greatest number of accidents took place at 12:00-13:59 (75 024, 13.93%). The proportion of drivers involved in RTAs decreased from 15.90% in the first year of getting a driving license to 3.13% after 10 years'of driving experience. Neglect of regulations was the commonest cause of traffic crashes (345 589, 64.17%). Non-observance of priority and inattention to the front were the most frequent final causes of death (138 175, 25.66% and 129 352, 24.02%, respectively). We found significant association between type of accident and sex, education, license type, time of accident, final cause of accident, driver's error as well as duration between accident and getting the driving license (all P less than 0.001). Our results will improve the traffic law enforcement measures, which will change inappropriate behavior of drivers and protect the least experienced road users.

  7. Parent-child communication and marijuana initiation: evidence using discrete-time survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Nonnemaker, James M; Silber-Ashley, Olivia; Farrelly, Matthew C; Dench, Daniel

    2012-12-01

    This study supplements existing literature on the relationship between parent-child communication and adolescent drug use by exploring whether parental and/or adolescent recall of specific drug-related conversations differentially impact youth's likelihood of initiating marijuana use. Using discrete-time survival analysis, we estimated the hazard of marijuana initiation using a logit model to obtain an estimate of the relative risk of initiation. Our results suggest that parent-child communication about drug use is either not protective (no effect) or - in the case of youth reports of communication - potentially harmful (leading to increased likelihood of marijuana initiation). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. 48 CFR 836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 836... CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 836.513 Accident prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 852.236-87, Accident Prevention, in...

  9. 48 CFR 36.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 36... CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 36.513 Accident prevention. (a) The contracting officer shall insert the clause at 52.236-13, Accident Prevention, in...

  10. 48 CFR 36.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Accident prevention. 36... CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 36.513 Accident prevention. (a) The contracting officer shall insert the clause at 52.236-13, Accident Prevention, in...

  11. 48 CFR 836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Accident prevention. 836... CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 836.513 Accident prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 852.236-87, Accident Prevention, in...

  12. Student Accidents in Hawaii's Public Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taketa, Sachiko

    1984-01-01

    Review of data collected from student accident report forms in Hawaii public schools revealed that the intermediate grade level had the highest number of school accidents. The significant number of accidents and school days lost may warrant the need for better safety education. (Author/DF)

  13. A new approach to modeling aviation accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Arjun Harsha

    General Aviation (GA) is a catchall term for all aircraft operations in the US that are not categorized as commercial operations or military flights. GA aircraft account for almost 97% of the US civil aviation fleet. Unfortunately, GA flights have a much higher fatal accident rate than commercial operations. Recent estimates by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) showed that the GA fatal accident rate has remained relatively unchanged between 2010 and 2015, with 1566 fatal accidents accounting for 2650 fatalities. Several research efforts have been directed towards betters understanding the causes of GA accidents. Many of these efforts use National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident reports and data. Unfortunately, while these studies easily identify the top types of accidents (e.g., inflight loss of control (LOC)), they usually cannot identify why these accidents are happening. Most NTSB narrative reports for GA accidents are very short (many are only one paragraph long), and do not contain much information on the causes (likely because the causes were not fully identified). NTSB investigators also code each accident using an event-based coding system, which should facilitate identification of patterns and trends in causation, given the high number of GA accidents each year. However, this system is susceptible to investigator interpretation and error, meaning that two investigators may code the same accident differently, or omit applicable codes. To facilitate a potentially better understanding of GA accident causation, this research develops a state-based approach to check for logical gaps or omissions in NTSB accident records, and potentially fills-in the omissions. The state-based approach offers more flexibility as it moves away from the conventional event-based representation of accidents, which classifies events in accidents into several categories such as causes, contributing factors, findings, occurrences, and phase of flight. The method

  14. [Time of adhesion to the Family Health Strategy protects elderly against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular accidents in Florianópolis, 2003 to 2007].

    PubMed

    Xavier, André Junqueira; dos Reis, Sandro Sedrez; Paulo, Elizabeth Machado; d'Orsi, Eleonora

    2008-01-01

    The Family Health Strategy (FHS) provides longitudinal follow-up and integrated healthcare. This study evaluated the influence of the time of adhesion to the FHS upon the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebral vascular accidents among the elderly enrolled in the CASSI-Florianópolis. The events were selected because of their high incidence, good notification and association with risk factors the FHS is able to modify. The longer the time of adhesion to the strategy the lower the incidence of these events, demonstrating the effectiveness of the FHS. A historical cohort study was conducted with 674 senior participants (60 or more years), registered between November/2003 and March/2007. The analysis used Student's T test, bivariate and multivariate analysis with logistic regression. The independent risk factors were: age over 80 years, (OR=3,44; CI 95%: 1,8-6,2), diabetes (OR=2,62; CI 95%: 1,4-4,7), hypertension (OR=1,68; CI 95%: 1,0-2,6) and physical inactivity (OR=2,06; CI 95%: 1,2-3,2). The study found no significant association between gender, dislipidemia, obesity, smoking, alcoholism and the studied events. The long time of adhesion to the FHS showed independent protective effect (OR=0,43; CI 95%: 0,2-0,8) after adjustment to earlier covariates, being effective in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebral vascular accidents among the enrolled population of elderly.

  15. The impact of in-vehicle cell-phone use on accidents or near-accidents among college students.

    PubMed

    Seo, Dong-Chul; Torabi, Mohammad R

    2004-01-01

    With in-vehicle use of cell phones rapidly increasing, the safety of young drivers, who represent 14% of licensed drivers but 26% of drivers involved in fatal crashes, may be disproportionately threatened. The authors used a questionnaire to examine the association between in-vehicle cell-phone use and accidents or near-accidents among 1,291 conveniently recruited college students in 4 states. Of the 1,185 respondents who were drivers, 87% had a cell phone, and 86% of the cell-phone owners reported talking while driving at least occasionally. Of the 762 reported accidents or near-accidents, 21% (n = 159) involved at least 1 of the drivers talking while driving. Chi-square tests and logistic regression analyses showed that the frequency, not the duration, of drivers talking while driving was related to experiencing accidents or near-accidents. Differences between drivers who used cell phones and nonusers in unsafe driving behaviors and attitudes were also examined, and target groups for intervention efforts against talking on a cell phone while driving are suggested.

  16. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    PubMed

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Nutrition management methods effective in increasing weight, survival time and functional status in ALS patients: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Kellogg, Jaylin; Bottman, Lindsey; Arra, Erin J; Selkirk, Stephen M; Kozlowski, Frances

    2018-02-01

    Poor prognosis and decreased survival time correlate with the nutritional status of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Various studies were reviewed which assessed weight, body mass index (BMI), survival time and ALS functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) in order to determine the best nutrition management methods for this patient population. A systematic review was conducted using CINAHL, Medline, and PubMed, and various search terms in order to determine the most recent clinical trials and observational studies that have been conducted concerning nutrition and ALS. Four articles met criteria to be included in the review. Data were extracted from these articles and were inputted into the Data Extraction Tool (DET) provided by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics (AND). Results showed that nutrition supplementation does promote weight stabilisation or weight gain in individuals with ALS. Given the low risk and low cost associated with intervention, early and aggressive nutrition intervention is recommended. This systematic review shows that there is a lack of high quality evidence regarding the efficacy of any dietary interventions for promoting survival in ALS or slowing disease progression; therefore more research is necessary related to effects of nutrition interventions.

  18. Analysis of Occupational Accident Fatalities and Injuries Among Male Group in Iran Between 2008 and 2012

    PubMed Central

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2015-01-01

    Background: Because of occupational accidents, permanent disabilities and deaths occur and economic and workday losses emerge. Objectives: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the factors responsible for occupational accidents occurred in Iran. Patients and Methods: The current study analyzed 1464 occupational accidents recorded by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs’ offices in Iran during 2008 - 2012. At first, general understanding of accidents was obtained using descriptive statistics. Afterwards, the chi-square test and Cramer’s V statistic (Vc) were used to determine the association between factors influencing the type of injury as occupational accident outcomes. Results: There was no significant association between marital status and time of day with the type of injury. However, activity sector, cause of accident, victim’s education, age of victim and victim’s experience were significantly associated with the type of injury. Conclusions: Successful accident prevention relies largely on knowledge about the causes of accidents. In any accident control activity, particularly in occupational accidents, correctly identifying high-risk groups and factors influencing accidents is the key to successful interventions. Results of this study can cause to increase accident awareness and enable workplace’s management to select and prioritize problem areas and safety system weakness in workplaces. PMID:26568848

  19. [Interventions for mental health sequelae of accidents].

    PubMed

    Angenendt, J

    2014-06-01

    Emergency psychology and psychotraumatology deal with the psychological sequelae of traumatic experiences, i.e., the prevention and early intervention of posttraumatic mental health disorders. Accidents are the most prevalent traumatic events in the general population that may result in a range of severe trauma and adjustment disorders. Accidents happen suddenly, unexpectedly, and can gravely threaten health, personal integrity, and life. The prevalence of intermittent and chronic psychiatric disorders in the aftermath of severe accidents varies between 5 and 30 %. Victims suffer from unknown and frightening posttraumatic symptoms, often irreversible handicaps as a consequence of their injuries, impairments in everyday functioning, and negative impact on the quality of life. The direct and indirect burden for society is high. Comprehensive secondary prevention, starting with early detection and early intervention of post-accident disorders, is not well established in clinical care. In case of severe accidental injuries, emergency and medical treatment has absolute priority. But all too often, severe mental health problems remain undetected in later treatment phases and therefore cannot be addressed adequately. In primary care, knowledge of specific psychodiagnostic and treatment options is still insufficient. Prejudices, denial, and fear of stigmatization in traumatized victims as well as practical constraints (availability, waiting time) in the referral to special evidence-based interventions limit the access to adequate and effective support. This overview presents the objectives, concepts, and therapeutic tools of a stepped-care model for psychological symptoms after accidental trauma, with reference to clinical guidelines.

  20. Construction accident narrative classification: An evaluation of text mining techniques.

    PubMed

    Goh, Yang Miang; Ubeynarayana, C U

    2017-11-01

    Learning from past accidents is fundamental to accident prevention. Thus, accident and near miss reporting are encouraged by organizations and regulators. However, for organizations managing large safety databases, the time taken to accurately classify accident and near miss narratives will be very significant. This study aims to evaluate the utility of various text mining classification techniques in classifying 1000 publicly available construction accident narratives obtained from the US OSHA website. The study evaluated six machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine (SVM), linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), decision tree (DT) and Naive Bayes (NB), and found that SVM produced the best performance in classifying the test set of 251 cases. Further experimentation with tokenization of the processed text and non-linear SVM were also conducted. In addition, a grid search was conducted on the hyperparameters of the SVM models. It was found that the best performing classifiers were linear SVM with unigram tokenization and radial basis function (RBF) SVM with uni-gram tokenization. In view of its relative simplicity, the linear SVM is recommended. Across the 11 labels of accident causes or types, the precision of the linear SVM ranged from 0.5 to 1, recall ranged from 0.36 to 0.9 and F1 score was between 0.45 and 0.92. The reasons for misclassification were discussed and suggestions on ways to improve the performance were provided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.