Sample records for accuracy positive predictive

  1. Eyeball Position in Facial Approximation: Accuracy of Methods for Predicting Globe Positioning in Lateral View.

    PubMed

    Zednikova Mala, Pavla; Veleminska, Jana

    2018-01-01

    This study measured the accuracy of traditional and validated newly proposed methods for globe positioning in lateral view. Eighty lateral head cephalograms of adult subjects from Central Europe were taken, and the actual and predicted dimensions were compared. The anteroposterior eyeball position was estimated as the most accurate method based on the proportion of the orbital height (SEE = 1.9 mm) and was followed by the "tangent to the iris method" showing SEE = 2.4 mm. The traditional "tangent to the cornea method" underestimated the eyeball projection by SEE = 5.8 mm. Concerning the superoinferior eyeball position, the results showed a deviation from a central to a more superior position by 0.3 mm, on average, and the traditional method of central positioning of the globe could not be rejected as inaccurate (SEE = 0.3 mm). Based on regression analyzes or proportionality of the orbital height, the SEE = 2.1 mm. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  2. Accuracy Analysis of a Wireless Indoor Positioning System Using Geodetic Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Przemysław; Woźniak, Marek; Odziemczyk, Waldemar; Pakuła, Dariusz

    2017-12-01

    Ubisense RTLS is one of the Indoor positioning systems using an Ultra Wide Band. AOA and TDOA methods are used as a principle of positioning. The accuracy of positioning depends primarily on the accuracy of determined angles and distance differences. The paper presents the results of accuracy research which includes a theoretical accuracy prediction and a practical test. Theoretical accuracy was calculated for two variants of system components geometry, assuming the parameters declared by the system manufacturer. Total station measurements were taken as a reference during the practical test. The results of the analysis are presented in a graphical form. A sample implementation (MagMaster) developed by Globema is presented in the final part of the paper.

  3. Evaluating the accuracy of SHAPE-directed RNA secondary structure predictions

    PubMed Central

    Sükösd, Zsuzsanna; Swenson, M. Shel; Kjems, Jørgen; Heitsch, Christine E.

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in RNA structure determination include using data from high-throughput probing experiments to improve thermodynamic prediction accuracy. We evaluate the extent and nature of improvements in data-directed predictions for a diverse set of 16S/18S ribosomal sequences using a stochastic model of experimental SHAPE data. The average accuracy for 1000 data-directed predictions always improves over the original minimum free energy (MFE) structure. However, the amount of improvement varies with the sequence, exhibiting a correlation with MFE accuracy. Further analysis of this correlation shows that accurate MFE base pairs are typically preserved in a data-directed prediction, whereas inaccurate ones are not. Thus, the positive predictive value of common base pairs is consistently higher than the directed prediction accuracy. Finally, we confirm sequence dependencies in the directability of thermodynamic predictions and investigate the potential for greater accuracy improvements in the worst performing test sequence. PMID:23325843

  4. Bio-knowledge based filters improve residue-residue contact prediction accuracy.

    PubMed

    Wozniak, P P; Pelc, J; Skrzypecki, M; Vriend, G; Kotulska, M

    2018-05-29

    Residue-residue contact prediction through direct coupling analysis has reached impressive accuracy, but yet higher accuracy will be needed to allow for routine modelling of protein structures. One way to improve the prediction accuracy is to filter predicted contacts using knowledge about the particular protein of interest or knowledge about protein structures in general. We focus on the latter and discuss a set of filters that can be used to remove false positive contact predictions. Each filter depends on one or a few cut-off parameters for which the filter performance was investigated. Combining all filters while using default parameters resulted for a test-set of 851 protein domains in the removal of 29% of the predictions of which 92% were indeed false positives. All data and scripts are available from http://comprec-lin.iiar.pwr.edu.pl/FPfilter/. malgorzata.kotulska@pwr.edu.pl. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  5. Accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta.

    PubMed

    Bowman, Zachary S; Eller, Alexandra G; Kennedy, Anne M; Richards, Douglas S; Winter, Thomas C; Woodward, Paula J; Silver, Robert M

    2014-08-01

    Ultrasound has been reported to be greater than 90% sensitive for the diagnosis of accreta. Prior studies may be subject to bias because of single expert observers, suspicion for accreta, and knowledge of risk factors. We aimed to assess the accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of accreta. Patients with accreta at a single academic center were matched to patients with placenta previa, but no accreta, by year of delivery. Ultrasound studies with views of the placenta were collected, deidentified, blinded to clinical history, and placed in random sequence. Six investigators prospectively interpreted each study for the presence of accreta and findings reported to be associated with its diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. Characteristics of accurate findings were compared using univariate and multivariate analyses. Six investigators examined 229 ultrasound studies from 55 patients with accreta and 56 controls for 1374 independent observations. 1205/1374 (87.7% overall, 90% controls, 84.9% cases) studies were given a diagnosis. There were 371 (27.0%) true positives; 81 (5.9%) false positives; 533 (38.8%) true negatives, 220 (16.0%) false negatives, and 169 (12.3%) with uncertain diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 53.5%, 88.0%, 82.1%, 64.8%, and 64.8%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, true positives were more likely to have placental lacunae (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-1.6), loss of retroplacental clear space (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-4.9), or abnormalities on color Doppler (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.8-2.4). Ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta may not be as sensitive as previously described. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.

    PubMed

    Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

    2012-06-01

    This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.

  7. Cadastral Database Positional Accuracy Improvement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, N. M.; Omar, A. H.; Ramli, S. N. M.; Omar, K. M.; Din, N.

    2017-10-01

    Positional Accuracy Improvement (PAI) is the refining process of the geometry feature in a geospatial dataset to improve its actual position. This actual position relates to the absolute position in specific coordinate system and the relation to the neighborhood features. With the growth of spatial based technology especially Geographical Information System (GIS) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), the PAI campaign is inevitable especially to the legacy cadastral database. Integration of legacy dataset and higher accuracy dataset like GNSS observation is a potential solution for improving the legacy dataset. However, by merely integrating both datasets will lead to a distortion of the relative geometry. The improved dataset should be further treated to minimize inherent errors and fitting to the new accurate dataset. The main focus of this study is to describe a method of angular based Least Square Adjustment (LSA) for PAI process of legacy dataset. The existing high accuracy dataset known as National Digital Cadastral Database (NDCDB) is then used as bench mark to validate the results. It was found that the propose technique is highly possible for positional accuracy improvement of legacy spatial datasets.

  8. Evaluating the predictive accuracy and the clinical benefit of a nomogram aimed to predict survival in node-positive prostate cancer patients: External validation on a multi-institutional database.

    PubMed

    Bianchi, Lorenzo; Schiavina, Riccardo; Borghesi, Marco; Bianchi, Federico Mineo; Briganti, Alberto; Carini, Marco; Terrone, Carlo; Mottrie, Alex; Gacci, Mauro; Gontero, Paolo; Imbimbo, Ciro; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Milanese, Giulio; Mirone, Vincenzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Morgia, Giuseppe; Novara, Giacomo; Porreca, Angelo; Volpe, Alessandro; Brunocilla, Eugenio

    2018-04-06

    To assess the predictive accuracy and the clinical value of a recent nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after surgery in pN1 prostate cancer patients through an external validation. We evaluated 518 prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with evidence of nodal metastases at final pathology, at 10 tertiary centers. External validation was carried out using regression coefficients of the previously published nomogram. The performance characteristics of the model were assessed by quantifying predictive accuracy, according to the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve and model calibration. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for each nomogram-derived probability cut-off. Finally, we implemented decision curve analysis, in order to quantify the nomogram's clinical value in routine practice. External validation showed inferior predictive accuracy as referred to in the internal validation (65.8% vs 83.3%, respectively). The discrimination (area under the curve) of the multivariable model was 66.7% (95% CI 60.1-73.0%) by testing with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The calibration plot showed an overestimation throughout the range of predicted cancer-specific mortality-free survival rates probabilities. However, in decision curve analysis, the nomogram's use showed a net benefit when compared with the scenarios of treating all patients or none. In an external setting, the nomogram showed inferior predictive accuracy and suboptimal calibration characteristics as compared to that reported in the original population. However, decision curve analysis showed a clinical net benefit, suggesting a clinical implication to correctly manage pN1 prostate cancer patients after surgery. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

  9. Improved Short-Term Clock Prediction Method for Real-Time Positioning.

    PubMed

    Lv, Yifei; Dai, Zhiqiang; Zhao, Qile; Yang, Sheng; Zhou, Jinning; Liu, Jingnan

    2017-06-06

    The application of real-time precise point positioning (PPP) requires real-time precise orbit and clock products that should be predicted within a short time to compensate for the communication delay or data gap. Unlike orbit correction, clock correction is difficult to model and predict. The widely used linear model hardly fits long periodic trends with a small data set and exhibits significant accuracy degradation in real-time prediction when a large data set is used. This study proposes a new prediction model for maintaining short-term satellite clocks to meet the high-precision requirements of real-time clocks and provide clock extrapolation without interrupting the real-time data stream. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to analyze the linear prediction residuals of real-time clocks. The periodic terms obtained through FFT are adopted in the sliding window prediction to achieve a significant improvement in short-term prediction accuracy. This study also analyzes and compares the accuracy of short-term forecasts (less than 3 h) by using different length observations. Experimental results obtained from International GNSS Service (IGS) final products and our own real-time clocks show that the 3-h prediction accuracy is better than 0.85 ns. The new model can replace IGS ultra-rapid products in the application of real-time PPP. It is also found that there is a positive correlation between the prediction accuracy and the short-term stability of on-board clocks. Compared with the accuracy of the traditional linear model, the accuracy of the static PPP using the new model of the 2-h prediction clock in N, E, and U directions is improved by about 50%. Furthermore, the static PPP accuracy of 2-h clock products is better than 0.1 m. When an interruption occurs in the real-time model, the accuracy of the kinematic PPP solution using 1-h clock prediction product is better than 0.2 m, without significant accuracy degradation. This model is of practical significance

  10. Positional Accuracy in Optical Trap-Assisted Nanolithography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, Craig B.; McLeod, Euan

    2009-03-01

    The ability to directly print patterns on size scales below 100 nm is important for many applications where the production or repair of high resolution and density features are important. Laser-based direct-write methods have the benefit of quickly and easily being able to modify and create structures on existing devices, but feature sizes are conventionally limited by diffraction. In this presentation, we show how to overcome this limit with a new method of probe-based near-field nanopatterning in which we employ a CW laser to optically trap and manipulate dispersed microspheres against a substrate using a 2-d Bessel beam optical trap. A secondary, pulsed nanosecond laser at 355 nm is directed through the bead and used to modify the surface below the microsphere, taking advantage of the near-field enhancement in order to produce materials modification with feature sizes under 100 nm. Here, we analyze the 3-d positioning accuracy of the microsphere through analytic modeling as a function of experimental parameters. The model is verified in all directions for our experimental conditions and is used to predict the conditions required for improved positional accuracy.

  11. Accuracy of chest radiography for positioning of the umbilical venous catheter.

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Adriana F M; Souza, Aline A C G de; Bouzada, Maria Cândida F; Meira, Zilda M A

    To evaluate the accuracy of the simultaneous analysis of three radiographic anatomical landmarks - diaphragm, cardiac silhouette, and vertebral bodies - in determining the position of the umbilical venous catheter distal end using echocardiography as a reference standard. This was a cross-sectional, observational study, with the prospective inclusion of data from all neonates born in a public reference hospital, between April 2012 and September 2013, submitted to umbilical venous catheter insertion as part of their medical care. The position of the catheter distal end, determined by the simultaneous analysis of three radiographic anatomical landmarks, was compared with the anatomical position obtained by echocardiography; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. Of the 162 newborns assessed by echocardiography, only 44 (27.16%) had the catheter in optimal position, in the thoracic portion of the inferior vena cava or at the junction of the inferior vena cava with the right atrium. The catheters were located in the left atrium and interatrial septum in 54 (33.33%) newborns, in the right atrium in 26 (16.05%), intra-hepatic in 37 (22.84%), and intra-aortic in-one newborn (0.62%). The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the radiography to detect the catheter in the target area were 56%, 71%, and 67.28%, respectively. Anteroposterior radiography of the chest alone is not able to safely define the umbilical venous catheter position. Echocardiography allows direct visualization of the catheter tip in relation to vascular structures and, whenever possible, should be considered to identify the location of the umbilical venous catheter. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  12. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    King, Bruce Hardison; Hansen, Clifford; Stein, Joshua

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  13. Piezoresistive position microsensors with ppm-accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrov, Vladimir; Shulev, Assen; Stavreva, Galina; Todorov, Vencislav

    2015-05-01

    In this article, the relation between position accuracy and the number of simultaneously measured values, such as coordinates, has been analyzed. Based on this, a conceptual layout of MEMS devices (microsensors) for multidimensional position monitoring comprising a single anchored and a single actuated part has been developed. Both parts are connected with a plurality of micromechanical flexures, and each flexure includes position detecting cantilevers. Microsensors having detecting cantilevers oriented in X and Y direction have been designed and prototyped. Experimentally measured results at characterization of 1D, 2D and 3D position microsensors are reported as well. Exploiting different flexure layouts, a travel range between 50μm and 1.8mm and sensors' sensitivity in the range between 30μV/μm and 5mV/μm@ 1V DC supply voltage have been demonstrated. A method for accurate calculation of all three Cartesian coordinates, based on measurement of at least three microsensors' signals has also been described. The analyses of experimental results prove the capability of position monitoring with ppm-(part per million) accuracy. The technology for fabrication of MEMS devices with sidewall embedded piezoresistors removes restrictions in strong improvement of their usability for position sensing with a high accuracy. The present study is, also a part of a common strategy for developing a novel MEMS-based platform for simultaneous accurate measurement of various physical values when they are transduced to a change of position.

  14. ShinyGPAS: interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator based on deterministic formulas.

    PubMed

    Morota, Gota

    2017-12-20

    Deterministic formulas for the accuracy of genomic predictions highlight the relationships among prediction accuracy and potential factors influencing prediction accuracy prior to performing computationally intensive cross-validation. Visualizing such deterministic formulas in an interactive manner may lead to a better understanding of how genetic factors control prediction accuracy. The software to simulate deterministic formulas for genomic prediction accuracy was implemented in R and encapsulated as a web-based Shiny application. Shiny genomic prediction accuracy simulator (ShinyGPAS) simulates various deterministic formulas and delivers dynamic scatter plots of prediction accuracy versus genetic factors impacting prediction accuracy, while requiring only mouse navigation in a web browser. ShinyGPAS is available at: https://chikudaisei.shinyapps.io/shinygpas/ . ShinyGPAS is a shiny-based interactive genomic prediction accuracy simulator using deterministic formulas. It can be used for interactively exploring potential factors that influence prediction accuracy in genome-enabled prediction, simulating achievable prediction accuracy prior to genotyping individuals, or supporting in-class teaching. ShinyGPAS is open source software and it is hosted online as a freely available web-based resource with an intuitive graphical user interface.

  15. Accuracy statistics in predicting Independent Activities of Daily Living (IADL) capacity with comprehensive and brief neuropsychological test batteries.

    PubMed

    Karzmark, Peter; Deutsch, Gayle K

    2018-01-01

    This investigation was designed to determine the predictive accuracy of a comprehensive neuropsychological and brief neuropsychological test battery with regard to the capacity to perform instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). Accuracy statistics that included measures of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predicted power and positive likelihood ratio were calculated for both types of batteries. The sample was drawn from a general neurological group of adults (n = 117) that included a number of older participants (age >55; n = 38). Standardized neuropsychological assessments were administered to all participants and were comprised of the Halstead Reitan Battery and portions of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-III. A comprehensive test battery yielded a moderate increase over base-rate in predictive accuracy that generalized to older individuals. There was only limited support for using a brief battery, for although sensitivity was high, specificity was low. We found that a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery provided good classification accuracy for predicting IADL capacity.

  16. Multi-Stage Target Tracking with Drift Correction and Position Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xin; Ren, Keyan; Hou, Yibin

    2018-04-01

    Most existing tracking methods are hard to combine accuracy and performance, and do not consider the shift between clarity and blur that often occurs. In this paper, we propound a multi-stage tracking framework with two particular modules: position prediction and corrective measure. We conduct tracking based on correlation filter with a corrective measure module to increase both performance and accuracy. Specifically, a convolutional network is used for solving the blur problem in realistic scene, training methodology that training dataset with blur images generated by the three blur algorithms. Then, we propose a position prediction module to reduce the computation cost and make tracker more capable of fast motion. Experimental result shows that our tracking method is more robust compared to others and more accurate on the benchmark sequences.

  17. Increased genomic prediction accuracy in wheat breeding using a large Australian panel.

    PubMed

    Norman, Adam; Taylor, Julian; Tanaka, Emi; Telfer, Paul; Edwards, James; Martinant, Jean-Pierre; Kuchel, Haydn

    2017-12-01

    Genomic prediction accuracy within a large panel was found to be substantially higher than that previously observed in smaller populations, and also higher than QTL-based prediction. In recent years, genomic selection for wheat breeding has been widely studied, but this has typically been restricted to population sizes under 1000 individuals. To assess its efficacy in germplasm representative of commercial breeding programmes, we used a panel of 10,375 Australian wheat breeding lines to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction for grain yield, physical grain quality and other physiological traits. To achieve this, the complete panel was phenotyped in a dedicated field trial and genotyped using a custom Axiom TM Affymetrix SNP array. A high-quality consensus map was also constructed, allowing the linkage disequilibrium present in the germplasm to be investigated. Using the complete SNP array, genomic prediction accuracies were found to be substantially higher than those previously observed in smaller populations and also more accurate compared to prediction approaches using a finite number of selected quantitative trait loci. Multi-trait genetic correlations were also assessed at an additive and residual genetic level, identifying a negative genetic correlation between grain yield and protein as well as a positive genetic correlation between grain size and test weight.

  18. Accuracy of conventional radiography and computed tomography in predicting implant position in relation to the vertebral canal in dogs.

    PubMed

    Hettlich, Bianca F; Fosgate, Geoffrey T; Levine, Jonathan M; Young, Benjamin D; Kerwin, Sharon C; Walker, Michael; Griffin, Jay; Maierl, Johann

    2010-08-01

    To compare the accuracy of radiography and computed tomography (CT) in predicting implant position in relation to the vertebral canal in the cervical and thoracolumbar vertebral column. In vitro imaging and anatomic study. Medium-sized canine cadaver vertebral columns (n=12). Steinmann pins were inserted into cervical and thoracolumbar vertebrae based on established landmarks but without predetermination of vertebral canal violation. Radiographs and CT images were obtained and evaluated by 6 individuals. A random subset of pins was evaluated for ability to distinguish left from right pins on radiographs. The ability to correctly identify vertebral canal penetration for all pins was assessed both on radiographs and CT. Spines were then anatomically prepared and visual examination of pin penetration into the canal served as the gold standard. Left/right accuracy was 93.1%. Overall sensitivity of radiographs and CT to detect vertebral canal penetration by an implant were significantly different and estimated as 50.7% and 93.4%, respectively (P<.0001). Sensitivity was significantly higher for complete versus partial penetration and for radiologists compared with nonradiologists for both imaging modalities. Overall specificity of radiographs and CT to detect vertebral canal penetration was 82.9% and 86.4%, respectively (P=.049). CT was superior to radiographic assessment and is the recommended imaging modality to assess penetration into the vertebral canal. CT is significantly more accurate in identifying vertebral canal violation by Steinmann pins and should be performed postoperatively to assess implant position.

  19. High accuracy autonomous navigation using the global positioning system (GPS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Truong, Son H.; Hart, Roger C.; Shoan, Wendy C.; Wood, Terri; Long, Anne C.; Oza, Dipak H.; Lee, Taesul

    1997-01-01

    The application of global positioning system (GPS) technology to the improvement of the accuracy and economy of spacecraft navigation, is reported. High-accuracy autonomous navigation algorithms are currently being qualified in conjunction with the GPS attitude determination flyer (GADFLY) experiment for the small satellite technology initiative Lewis spacecraft. Preflight performance assessments indicated that these algorithms are able to provide a real time total position accuracy of better than 10 m and a velocity accuracy of better than 0.01 m/s, with selective availability at typical levels. It is expected that the position accuracy will be increased to 2 m if corrections are provided by the GPS wide area augmentation system.

  20. Predicting Positive and Negative Relationships in Large Social Networks.

    PubMed

    Wang, Guan-Nan; Gao, Hui; Chen, Lian; Mensah, Dennis N A; Fu, Yan

    2015-01-01

    In a social network, users hold and express positive and negative attitudes (e.g. support/opposition) towards other users. Those attitudes exhibit some kind of binary relationships among the users, which play an important role in social network analysis. However, some of those binary relationships are likely to be latent as the scale of social network increases. The essence of predicting latent binary relationships have recently began to draw researchers' attention. In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for predicting positive and negative relationships in social networks inspired by structural balance theory and social status theory. More specifically, we show that when two users in the network have fewer common neighbors, the prediction accuracy of the relationship between them deteriorates. Accordingly, in the training phase, we propose a segment-based training framework to divide the training data into two subsets according to the number of common neighbors between users, and build a prediction model for each subset based on support vector machine (SVM). Moreover, to deal with large-scale social network data, we employ a sampling strategy that selects small amount of training data while maintaining high accuracy of prediction. We compare our algorithm with traditional algorithms and adaptive boosting of them. Experimental results of typical data sets show that our algorithm can deal with large social networks and consistently outperforms other methods.

  1. How a GNSS Receiver Is Held May Affect Static Horizontal Position Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Steven A.; Ucar, Zennure; Bettinger, Pete; Merry, Krista

    2015-01-01

    The static horizontal position accuracy of a mapping-grade GNSS receiver was tested in two forest types over two seasons, and subsequently was tested in one forest type against open sky conditions in the winter season. The main objective was to determine whether the holding position during data collection would result in significantly different static horizontal position accuracy. Additionally, we wanted to determine whether the time of year (season), forest type, or environmental variables had an influence on accuracy. In general, the F4Devices Flint GNSS receiver was found to have mean static horizontal position accuracy levels within the ranges typically expected for this general type of receiver (3 to 5 m) when differential correction was not employed. When used under forest cover, in some cases the GNSS receiver provided a higher level of static horizontal position accuracy when held vertically, as opposed to held at an angle or horizontally (the more natural positions), perhaps due to the orientation of the antenna within the receiver, or in part due to multipath or the inability to use certain satellite signals. Therefore, due to the fact that numerous variables may affect static horizontal position accuracy, we only conclude that there is weak to moderate evidence that the results of holding position are significant. Statistical test results also suggest that the season of data collection had no significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy, and results suggest that atmospheric variables had weak correlation with horizontal position accuracy. Forest type was found to have a significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy in one aspect of one test, yet otherwise there was little evidence that forest type affected horizontal position accuracy. Since the holding position was found in some cases to be significant with regard to the static horizontal position accuracy of positions collected in forests, it may be beneficial to have an

  2. How a GNSS Receiver Is Held May Affect Static Horizontal Position Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Steven A; Ucar, Zennure; Bettinger, Pete; Merry, Krista

    2015-01-01

    The static horizontal position accuracy of a mapping-grade GNSS receiver was tested in two forest types over two seasons, and subsequently was tested in one forest type against open sky conditions in the winter season. The main objective was to determine whether the holding position during data collection would result in significantly different static horizontal position accuracy. Additionally, we wanted to determine whether the time of year (season), forest type, or environmental variables had an influence on accuracy. In general, the F4Devices Flint GNSS receiver was found to have mean static horizontal position accuracy levels within the ranges typically expected for this general type of receiver (3 to 5 m) when differential correction was not employed. When used under forest cover, in some cases the GNSS receiver provided a higher level of static horizontal position accuracy when held vertically, as opposed to held at an angle or horizontally (the more natural positions), perhaps due to the orientation of the antenna within the receiver, or in part due to multipath or the inability to use certain satellite signals. Therefore, due to the fact that numerous variables may affect static horizontal position accuracy, we only conclude that there is weak to moderate evidence that the results of holding position are significant. Statistical test results also suggest that the season of data collection had no significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy, and results suggest that atmospheric variables had weak correlation with horizontal position accuracy. Forest type was found to have a significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy in one aspect of one test, yet otherwise there was little evidence that forest type affected horizontal position accuracy. Since the holding position was found in some cases to be significant with regard to the static horizontal position accuracy of positions collected in forests, it may be beneficial to have an

  3. On the accuracy of ERS-1 orbit predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koenig, Rolf; Li, H.; Massmann, Franz-Heinrich; Raimondo, J. C.; Rajasenan, C.; Reigber, C.

    1993-01-01

    Since the launch of ERS-1, the D-PAF (German Processing and Archiving Facility) provides regularly orbit predictions for the worldwide SLR (Satellite Laser Ranging) tracking network. The weekly distributed orbital elements are so called tuned IRV's and tuned SAO-elements. The tuning procedure, designed to improve the accuracy of the recovery of the orbit at the stations, is discussed based on numerical results. This shows that tuning of elements is essential for ERS-1 with the currently applied tracking procedures. The orbital elements are updated by daily distributed time bias functions. The generation of the time bias function is explained. Problems and numerical results are presented. The time bias function increases the prediction accuracy considerably. Finally, the quality assessment of ERS-1 orbit predictions is described. The accuracy is compiled for about 250 days since launch. The average accuracy lies in the range of 50-100 ms and has considerably improved.

  4. High accuracy prediction of beta-turns and their types using propensities and multiple alignments.

    PubMed

    Fuchs, Patrick F J; Alix, Alain J P

    2005-06-01

    We have developed a method that predicts both the presence and the type of beta-turns, using a straightforward approach based on propensities and multiple alignments. The propensities were calculated classically, but the way to use them for prediction was completely new: starting from a tetrapeptide sequence on which one wants to evaluate the presence of a beta-turn, the propensity for a given residue is modified by taking into account all the residues present in the multiple alignment at this position. The evaluation of a score is then done by weighting these propensities by the use of Position-specific score matrices generated by PSI-BLAST. The introduction of secondary structure information predicted by PSIPRED or SSPRO2 as well as taking into account the flanking residues around the tetrapeptide improved the accuracy greatly. This latter evaluated on a database of 426 reference proteins (previously used on other studies) by a sevenfold crossvalidation gave very good results with a Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.42 and an overall prediction accuracy of 74.8%; this places our method among the best ones. A jackknife test was also done, which gave results within the same range. This shows that it is possible to reach neural networks accuracy with considerably less computional cost and complexity. Furthermore, propensities remain excellent descriptors of amino acid tendencies to belong to beta-turns, which can be useful for peptide or protein engineering and design. For beta-turn type prediction, we reached the best accuracy ever published in terms of MCC (except for the irregular type IV) in the range of 0.25-0.30 for types I, II, and I' and 0.13-0.15 for types VIII, II', and IV. To our knowledge, our method is the only one available on the Web that predicts types I' and II'. The accuracy evaluated on two larger databases of 547 and 823 proteins was not improved significantly. All of this was implemented into a Web server called COUDES (French acronym

  5. COMPASS time synchronization and dissemination—Toward centimetre positioning accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, ZhengBo; Zhao, Lu; Wang, ShiGuang; Zhang, JianWei; Wang, Bo; Wang, LiJun

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we investigate methods to achieve highly accurate time synchronization among the satellites of the COMPASS global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Owing to the special design of COMPASS which implements several geo-stationary satellites (GEO), time synchronization can be highly accurate via microwave links between ground stations to the GEO satellites. Serving as space-borne relay stations, the GEO satellites can further disseminate time and frequency signals to other satellites such as the inclined geo-synchronous (IGSO) and mid-earth orbit (MEO) satellites within the system. It is shown that, because of the accuracy in clock synchronization, the theoretical accuracy of COMPASS positioning and navigation will surpass that of the GPS. In addition, the COMPASS system can function with its entire positioning, navigation, and time-dissemination services even without the ground link, thus making it much more robust and secure. We further show that time dissemination using the COMPASS-GEO satellites to earth-fixed stations can achieve very high accuracy, to reach 100 ps in time dissemination and 3 cm in positioning accuracy, respectively. In this paper, we also analyze two feasible synchronization plans. All special and general relativistic effects related to COMPASS clocks frequency and time shifts are given. We conclude that COMPASS can reach centimeter-level positioning accuracy and discuss potential applications.

  6. Systematic bias of correlation coefficient may explain negative accuracy of genomic prediction.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yao; Vales, M Isabel; Wang, Aoxue; Zhang, Zhiwu

    2017-09-01

    Accuracy of genomic prediction is commonly calculated as the Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed phenotypes in the inference population by using cross-validation analysis. More frequently than expected, significant negative accuracies of genomic prediction have been reported in genomic selection studies. These negative values are surprising, given that the minimum value for prediction accuracy should hover around zero when randomly permuted data sets are analyzed. We reviewed the two common approaches for calculating the Pearson correlation and hypothesized that these negative accuracy values reflect potential bias owing to artifacts caused by the mathematical formulas used to calculate prediction accuracy. The first approach, Instant accuracy, calculates correlations for each fold and reports prediction accuracy as the mean of correlations across fold. The other approach, Hold accuracy, predicts all phenotypes in all fold and calculates correlation between the observed and predicted phenotypes at the end of the cross-validation process. Using simulated and real data, we demonstrated that our hypothesis is true. Both approaches are biased downward under certain conditions. The biases become larger when more fold are employed and when the expected accuracy is low. The bias of Instant accuracy can be corrected using a modified formula. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Alaska national hydrography dataset positional accuracy assessment study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arundel, Samantha; Yamamoto, Kristina H.; Constance, Eric; Mantey, Kim; Vinyard-Houx, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Initial visual assessments Wide range in the quality of fit between features in NHD and these new image sources. No statistical analysis has been performed to actually quantify accuracy Determining absolute accuracy is cost prohibitive (must collect independent, well defined test points) Quantitative analysis of relative positional error is feasible.

  8. Employing Tropospheric Numerical Weather Prediction Model for High-Precision GNSS Positioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves, Daniele; Gouveia, Tayna; Abreu, Pedro; Magário, Jackes

    2014-05-01

    In the past few years is increasing the necessity of realizing high accuracy positioning. In this sense, the spatial technologies have being widely used. The GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) has revolutionized the geodetic positioning activities. Among the existent methods one can emphasize the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. But, to get high accuracy employing these methods, mainly in real time, is indispensable to realize the atmospheric modeling (ionosphere and troposphere) accordingly. Related to troposphere, there are the empirical models (for example Saastamoinen and Hopfield). But when highly accuracy results (error of few centimeters) are desired, maybe these models are not appropriated to the Brazilian reality. In order to minimize this limitation arises the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. In Brazil the CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies / Brazilian Institute for Spatial Researches) provides a regional NWP model, currently used to produce Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) predictions (http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/zenital/). The actual version, called eta15km model, has a spatial resolution of 15 km and temporal resolution of 3 hours. In this paper the main goal is to accomplish experiments and analysis concerning the use of troposphere NWP model (eta15km model) in PPP and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP it was used data from dozens of stations over the Brazilian territory, including Amazon forest. The results obtained with NWP model were compared with Hopfield one. NWP model presented the best results in all experiments. Related to network-based positioning it was used data from GNSS/SP Network in São Paulo State, Brazil. This network presents the best configuration in the country to realize this kind of positioning. Actually the network is composed by twenty stations (http://www.fct.unesp.br/#!/pesquisa/grupos-de-estudo-e-pesquisa/gege//gnss-sp-network2789/). The

  9. Accuracy test for link prediction in terms of similarity index: The case of WS and BA models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Min-Woo; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2015-07-01

    Link prediction is a technique that uses the topological information in a given network to infer the missing links in it. Since past research on link prediction has primarily focused on enhancing performance for given empirical systems, negligible attention has been devoted to link prediction with regard to network models. In this paper, we thus apply link prediction to two network models: The Watts-Strogatz (WS) model and Barabási-Albert (BA) model. We attempt to gain a better understanding of the relation between accuracy and each network parameter (mean degree, the number of nodes and the rewiring probability in the WS model) through network models. Six similarity indices are used, with precision and area under the ROC curve (AUC) value as the accuracy metrics. We observe a positive correlation between mean degree and accuracy, and size independence of the AUC value.

  10. Accuracy Analysis of a Low-Cost Platform for Positioning and Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, S.; Kuntzsch, C.; Schulze, M. J.; Eggert, D.; Sester, M.

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents an accuracy analysis of a platform based on low-cost components for landmark-based navigation intended for research and teaching purposes. The proposed platform includes a LEGO MINDSTORMS NXT 2.0 kit, an Android-based Smartphone as well as a compact laser scanner Hokuyo URG-04LX. The robot is used in a small indoor environment, where GNSS is not available. Therefore, a landmark map was produced in advance, with the landmark positions provided to the robot. All steps of procedure to set up the platform are shown. The main focus of this paper is the reachable positioning accuracy, which was analyzed in this type of scenario depending on the accuracy of the reference landmarks and the directional and distance measuring accuracy of the laser scanner. Several experiments were carried out, demonstrating the practically achievable positioning accuracy. To evaluate the accuracy, ground truth was acquired using a total station. These results are compared to the theoretically achievable accuracies and the laser scanner's characteristics.

  11. Accuracy of Predicted Genomic Breeding Values in Purebred and Crossbred Pigs.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, André M; Bastiaansen, John W M; Lopes, Marcos S; Harlizius, Barbara; Groenen, Martien A M; de Koning, Dirk-Jan

    2015-05-26

    Genomic selection has been widely implemented in dairy cattle breeding when the aim is to improve performance of purebred animals. In pigs, however, the final product is a crossbred animal. This may affect the efficiency of methods that are currently implemented for dairy cattle. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of predicted breeding values in crossbred pigs using purebred genomic and phenotypic data. A second objective was to compare the predictive ability of SNPs when training is done in either single or multiple populations for four traits: age at first insemination (AFI); total number of piglets born (TNB); litter birth weight (LBW); and litter variation (LVR). We performed marker-based and pedigree-based predictions. Within-population predictions for the four traits ranged from 0.21 to 0.72. Multi-population prediction yielded accuracies ranging from 0.18 to 0.67. Predictions across purebred populations as well as predicting genetic merit of crossbreds from their purebred parental lines for AFI performed poorly (not significantly different from zero). In contrast, accuracies of across-population predictions and accuracies of purebred to crossbred predictions for LBW and LVR ranged from 0.08 to 0.31 and 0.11 to 0.31, respectively. Accuracy for TNB was zero for across-population prediction, whereas for purebred to crossbred prediction it ranged from 0.08 to 0.22. In general, marker-based outperformed pedigree-based prediction across populations and traits. However, in some cases pedigree-based prediction performed similarly or outperformed marker-based prediction. There was predictive ability when purebred populations were used to predict crossbred genetic merit using an additive model in the populations studied. AFI was the only exception, indicating that predictive ability depends largely on the genetic correlation between PB and CB performance, which was 0.31 for AFI. Multi-population prediction was no better than within

  12. Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding.

    PubMed

    Ould Estaghvirou, Sidi Boubacar; Ogutu, Joseph O; Schulz-Streeck, Torben; Knaak, Carsten; Ouzunova, Milena; Gordillo, Andres; Piepho, Hans-Peter

    2013-12-06

    In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least

  13. Correcting Memory Improves Accuracy of Predicted Task Duration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roy, Michael M.; Mitten, Scott T.; Christenfeld, Nicholas J. S.

    2008-01-01

    People are often inaccurate in predicting task duration. The memory bias explanation holds that this error is due to people having incorrect memories of how long previous tasks have taken, and these biased memories cause biased predictions. Therefore, the authors examined the effect on increasing predictive accuracy of correcting memory through…

  14. Adjusted Clinical Groups: Predictive Accuracy for Medicaid Enrollees in Three States

    PubMed Central

    Adams, E. Kathleen; Bronstein, Janet M.; Raskind-Hood, Cheryl

    2002-01-01

    Actuarial split-sample methods were used to assess predictive accuracy of adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) for Medicaid enrollees in Georgia, Mississippi (lagging in managed care penetration), and California. Accuracy for two non-random groups—high-cost and located in urban poor areas—was assessed. Measures for random groups were derived with and without short-term enrollees to assess the effect of turnover on predictive accuracy. ACGs improved predictive accuracy for high-cost conditions in all States, but did so only for those in Georgia's poorest urban areas. Higher and more unpredictable expenses of short-term enrollees moderated the predictive power of ACGs. This limitation was significant in Mississippi due in part, to that State's very high proportion of short-term enrollees. PMID:12545598

  15. Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. Results The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. Conclusions The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the

  16. Improvement of Gaofen-3 Absolute Positioning Accuracy Based on Cross-Calibration

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Mingjun; Li, Jiansong

    2017-01-01

    The Chinese Gaofen-3 (GF-3) mission was launched in August 2016, equipped with a full polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensor in the C-band, with a resolution of up to 1 m. The absolute positioning accuracy of GF-3 is of great importance, and in-orbit geometric calibration is a key technology for improving absolute positioning accuracy. Conventional geometric calibration is used to accurately calibrate the geometric calibration parameters of the image (internal delay and azimuth shifts) using high-precision ground control data, which are highly dependent on the control data of the calibration field, but it remains costly and labor-intensive to monitor changes in GF-3’s geometric calibration parameters. Based on the positioning consistency constraint of the conjugate points, this study presents a geometric cross-calibration method for the rapid and accurate calibration of GF-3. The proposed method can accurately calibrate geometric calibration parameters without using corner reflectors and high-precision digital elevation models, thus improving absolute positioning accuracy of the GF-3 image. GF-3 images from multiple regions were collected to verify the absolute positioning accuracy after cross-calibration. The results show that this method can achieve a calibration accuracy as high as that achieved by the conventional field calibration method. PMID:29240675

  17. Accuracy of ultrasound in prediction of rectosigmoid infiltration in epithelial ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Zikan, M; Fischerova, D; Semeradova, I; Slama, J; Dundr, P; Weinberger, V; Dusek, L; Cibula, D

    2017-10-01

    To examine prospectively the accuracy of ultrasound in predicting rectosigmoid tumor infiltration in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. Patients referred for a suspicious pelvic mass between 2012 and 2014 were examined by ultrasound following the standard protocol for assessment of tumor infiltration. Of the 245 patients examined, 191 had proven ovarian cancer and underwent primary surgery and were included in the analysis. Patients with apparently benign or inoperable disease were excluded. Rectosigmoid infiltration was evaluated by histopathology or according to perioperative findings. Clinical, pathological and laboratory parameters were analyzed as factors potentially affecting the sensitivity and specificity of sonography. The sensitivity of ultrasound in detecting rectosigmoid infiltration in patients with ovarian cancer was 86.3%, with specificity of 95.8%, positive predictive value of 92.6%, negative predictive value of 91.9% and overall accuracy of 92.1%. Ultrasound is a highly accurate method for detecting rectosigmoid tumor infiltration in ovarian cancer patients, and thus, can be used for planning adequate management, including patient consultation, surgical team planning, suitable operating time and postoperative care. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Prediction accuracy of direct and indirect approaches, and their relationships with prediction ability of calibration models.

    PubMed

    Belay, T K; Dagnachew, B S; Boison, S A; Ådnøy, T

    2018-03-28

    Milk infrared spectra are routinely used for phenotyping traits of interest through links developed between the traits and spectra. Predicted individual traits are then used in genetic analyses for estimated breeding value (EBV) or for phenotypic predictions using a single-trait mixed model; this approach is referred to as indirect prediction (IP). An alternative approach [direct prediction (DP)] is a direct genetic analysis of (a reduced dimension of) the spectra using a multitrait model to predict multivariate EBV of the spectral components and, ultimately, also to predict the univariate EBV or phenotype for the traits of interest. We simulated 3 traits under different genetic (low: 0.10 to high: 0.90) and residual (zero to high: ±0.90) correlation scenarios between the 3 traits and assumed the first trait is a linear combination of the other 2 traits. The aim was to compare the IP and DP approaches for predictions of EBV and phenotypes under the different correlation scenarios. We also evaluated relationships between performances of the 2 approaches and the accuracy of calibration equations. Moreover, the effect of using different regression coefficients estimated from simulated phenotypes (β p ), true breeding values (β g ), and residuals (β r ) on performance of the 2 approaches were evaluated. The simulated data contained 2,100 parents (100 sires and 2,000 cows) and 8,000 offspring (4 offspring per cow). Of the 8,000 observations, 2,000 were randomly selected and used to develop links between the first and the other 2 traits using partial least square (PLS) regression analysis. The different PLS regression coefficients, such as β p , β g , and β r , were used in subsequent predictions following the IP and DP approaches. We used BLUP analyses for the remaining 6,000 observations using the true (co)variance components that had been used for the simulation. Accuracy of prediction (of EBV and phenotype) was calculated as a correlation between predicted and

  19. Positional Accuracy Assessment of Googleearth in Riyadh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farah, Ashraf; Algarni, Dafer

    2014-06-01

    Google Earth is a virtual globe, map and geographical information program that is controlled by Google corporation. It maps the Earth by the superimposition of images obtained from satellite imagery, aerial photography and GIS 3D globe. With millions of users all around the globe, GoogleEarth® has become the ultimate source of spatial data and information for private and public decision-support systems besides many types and forms of social interactions. Many users mostly in developing countries are also using it for surveying applications, the matter that raises questions about the positional accuracy of the Google Earth program. This research presents a small-scale assessment study of the positional accuracy of GoogleEarth® Imagery in Riyadh; capital of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The results show that the RMSE of the GoogleEarth imagery is 2.18 m and 1.51 m for the horizontal and height coordinates respectively.

  20. The Upper and Lower Bounds of the Prediction Accuracies of Ensemble Methods for Binary Classification

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xueyi; Davidson, Nicholas J.

    2011-01-01

    Ensemble methods have been widely used to improve prediction accuracy over individual classifiers. In this paper, we achieve a few results about the prediction accuracies of ensemble methods for binary classification that are missed or misinterpreted in previous literature. First we show the upper and lower bounds of the prediction accuracies (i.e. the best and worst possible prediction accuracies) of ensemble methods. Next we show that an ensemble method can achieve > 0.5 prediction accuracy, while individual classifiers have < 0.5 prediction accuracies. Furthermore, for individual classifiers with different prediction accuracies, the average of the individual accuracies determines the upper and lower bounds. We perform two experiments to verify the results and show that it is hard to achieve the upper and lower bounds accuracies by random individual classifiers and better algorithms need to be developed. PMID:21853162

  1. Revealing how network structure affects accuracy of link prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jin-Xuan; Zhang, Xiao-Dong

    2017-08-01

    Link prediction plays an important role in network reconstruction and network evolution. The network structure affects the accuracy of link prediction, which is an interesting problem. In this paper we use common neighbors and the Gini coefficient to reveal the relation between them, which can provide a good reference for the choice of a suitable link prediction algorithm according to the network structure. Moreover, the statistical analysis reveals correlation between the common neighbors index, Gini coefficient index and other indices to describe the network structure, such as Laplacian eigenvalues, clustering coefficient, degree heterogeneity, and assortativity of network. Furthermore, a new method to predict missing links is proposed. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm yields better prediction accuracy and robustness to the network structure than existing currently used methods for a variety of real-world networks.

  2. Do positive schizotypal symptoms predict false perceptual experiences in nonclinical populations?

    PubMed

    Tsakanikos, Elias; Reed, Phil

    2005-12-01

    We examined whether positive schizotypy (i.e., reports of hallucinatory and delusional-like experiences) in nonclinical participants could predict false perceptual experiences during detection of fast-moving words beyond a possible response bias. The participants (N = 160) were assigned to one of two conditions: they were asked either to make presence/absence judgments (loose criterion) or to read aloud every detected word (strict criterion). Regression analysis showed that high levels of positive schizotypy predicted false alarms in the loose condition and false perceptions of words in the strict condition. The obtained effects were independent of detection accuracy, task order, impulsivity, and social desirability. We discuss the results in the context of information processing biases linked to the positive symptomatology of schizophrenia. Clinical and theoretical implications are also considered.

  3. The Accuracy of the Spot Sign and the Blend Sign for Predicting Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-05-12

    BACKGROUND Hematoma expansion is associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients. The spot sign and the blend sign are reliable tools for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH patients. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of the two signs in the prediction of hematoma expansion. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients with spontaneous ICH were screened for the presence of the computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign and the non-contrast CT (NCCT) blend sign within 6 hours after onset of symptoms. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion were calculated. The accuracy of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion was analyzed by receiver-operator analysis. RESULTS A total of 115 patients were enrolled in this study. The spot sign was observed in 25 (21.74%) patients, whereas the blend sign was observed in 22 (19.13%) patients. Of the 28 patients with hematoma expansion, the CTA spot sign was found on admission CT scans in 16 (57.14%) and the NCCT blend sign in 12 (42.86%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the spot sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 57.14%, 89.66%, 64.00%, and 86.67%, respectively. In contrast, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the blend sign were 42.86%, 88.51%, 54.55%, and 82.80%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the spot sign was 0.734, which was higher than that of the blend sign (0.657). CONCLUSIONS Both the spot sign and the blend sign seemed to be good predictors for hematoma expansion, and the spot sign appeared to have better predictive accuracy.

  4. The Accuracy of the Spot Sign and the Blend Sign for Predicting Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-01-01

    Background Hematoma expansion is associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients. The spot sign and the blend sign are reliable tools for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH patients. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of the two signs in the prediction of hematoma expansion. Material/Methods Patients with spontaneous ICH were screened for the presence of the computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign and the non-contrast CT (NCCT) blend sign within 6 hours after onset of symptoms. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion were calculated. The accuracy of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion was analyzed by receiver-operator analysis. Results A total of 115 patients were enrolled in this study. The spot sign was observed in 25 (21.74%) patients, whereas the blend sign was observed in 22 (19.13%) patients. Of the 28 patients with hematoma expansion, the CTA spot sign was found on admission CT scans in 16 (57.14%) and the NCCT blend sign in 12 (42.86%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the spot sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 57.14%, 89.66%, 64.00%, and 86.67%, respectively. In contrast, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the blend sign were 42.86%, 88.51%, 54.55%, and 82.80%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the spot sign was 0.734, which was higher than that of the blend sign (0.657). Conclusions Both the spot sign and the blend sign seemed to be good predictors for hematoma expansion, and the spot sign appeared to have better predictive accuracy. PMID:28498827

  5. Modeling positional effects of regulatory sequences with spline transformations increases prediction accuracy of deep neural networks

    PubMed Central

    Avsec, Žiga; Cheng, Jun; Gagneur, Julien

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Motivation Regulatory sequences are not solely defined by their nucleic acid sequence but also by their relative distances to genomic landmarks such as transcription start site, exon boundaries or polyadenylation site. Deep learning has become the approach of choice for modeling regulatory sequences because of its strength to learn complex sequence features. However, modeling relative distances to genomic landmarks in deep neural networks has not been addressed. Results Here we developed spline transformation, a neural network module based on splines to flexibly and robustly model distances. Modeling distances to various genomic landmarks with spline transformations significantly increased state-of-the-art prediction accuracy of in vivo RNA-binding protein binding sites for 120 out of 123 proteins. We also developed a deep neural network for human splice branchpoint based on spline transformations that outperformed the current best, already distance-based, machine learning model. Compared to piecewise linear transformation, as obtained by composition of rectified linear units, spline transformation yields higher prediction accuracy as well as faster and more robust training. As spline transformation can be applied to further quantities beyond distances, such as methylation or conservation, we foresee it as a versatile component in the genomics deep learning toolbox. Availability and implementation Spline transformation is implemented as a Keras layer in the CONCISE python package: https://github.com/gagneurlab/concise. Analysis code is available at https://github.com/gagneurlab/Manuscript_Avsec_Bioinformatics_2017. Contact avsec@in.tum.de or gagneur@in.tum.de Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:29155928

  6. Accuracies of univariate and multivariate genomic prediction models in African cassava.

    PubMed

    Okeke, Uche Godfrey; Akdemir, Deniz; Rabbi, Ismail; Kulakow, Peter; Jannink, Jean-Luc

    2017-12-04

    Genomic selection (GS) promises to accelerate genetic gain in plant breeding programs especially for crop species such as cassava that have long breeding cycles. Practically, to implement GS in cassava breeding, it is necessary to evaluate different GS models and to develop suitable models for an optimized breeding pipeline. In this paper, we compared (1) prediction accuracies from a single-trait (uT) and a multi-trait (MT) mixed model for a single-environment genetic evaluation (Scenario 1), and (2) accuracies from a compound symmetric multi-environment model (uE) parameterized as a univariate multi-kernel model to a multivariate (ME) multi-environment mixed model that accounts for genotype-by-environment interaction for multi-environment genetic evaluation (Scenario 2). For these analyses, we used 16 years of public cassava breeding data for six target cassava traits and a fivefold cross-validation scheme with 10-repeat cycles to assess model prediction accuracies. In Scenario 1, the MT models had higher prediction accuracies than the uT models for all traits and locations analyzed, which amounted to on average a 40% improved prediction accuracy. For Scenario 2, we observed that the ME model had on average (across all locations and traits) a 12% improved prediction accuracy compared to the uE model. We recommend the use of multivariate mixed models (MT and ME) for cassava genetic evaluation. These models may be useful for other plant species.

  7. High accuracy operon prediction method based on STRING database scores.

    PubMed

    Taboada, Blanca; Verde, Cristina; Merino, Enrique

    2010-07-01

    We present a simple and highly accurate computational method for operon prediction, based on intergenic distances and functional relationships between the protein products of contiguous genes, as defined by STRING database (Jensen,L.J., Kuhn,M., Stark,M., Chaffron,S., Creevey,C., Muller,J., Doerks,T., Julien,P., Roth,A., Simonovic,M. et al. (2009) STRING 8-a global view on proteins and their functional interactions in 630 organisms. Nucleic Acids Res., 37, D412-D416). These two parameters were used to train a neural network on a subset of experimentally characterized Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis operons. Our predictive model was successfully tested on the set of experimentally defined operons in E. coli and B. subtilis, with accuracies of 94.6 and 93.3%, respectively. As far as we know, these are the highest accuracies ever obtained for predicting bacterial operons. Furthermore, in order to evaluate the predictable accuracy of our model when using an organism's data set for the training procedure, and a different organism's data set for testing, we repeated the E. coli operon prediction analysis using a neural network trained with B. subtilis data, and a B. subtilis analysis using a neural network trained with E. coli data. Even for these cases, the accuracies reached with our method were outstandingly high, 91.5 and 93%, respectively. These results show the potential use of our method for accurately predicting the operons of any other organism. Our operon predictions for fully-sequenced genomes are available at http://operons.ibt.unam.mx/OperonPredictor/.

  8. Influence of outliers on accuracy estimation in genomic prediction in plant breeding.

    PubMed

    Estaghvirou, Sidi Boubacar Ould; Ogutu, Joseph O; Piepho, Hans-Peter

    2014-10-01

    Outliers often pose problems in analyses of data in plant breeding, but their influence on the performance of methods for estimating predictive accuracy in genomic prediction studies has not yet been evaluated. Here, we evaluate the influence of outliers on the performance of methods for accuracy estimation in genomic prediction studies using simulation. We simulated 1000 datasets for each of 10 scenarios to evaluate the influence of outliers on the performance of seven methods for estimating accuracy. These scenarios are defined by the number of genotypes, marker effect variance, and magnitude of outliers. To mimic outliers, we added to one observation in each simulated dataset, in turn, 5-, 8-, and 10-times the error SD used to simulate small and large phenotypic datasets. The effect of outliers on accuracy estimation was evaluated by comparing deviations in the estimated and true accuracies for datasets with and without outliers. Outliers adversely influenced accuracy estimation, more so at small values of genetic variance or number of genotypes. A method for estimating heritability and predictive accuracy in plant breeding and another used to estimate accuracy in animal breeding were the most accurate and resistant to outliers across all scenarios and are therefore preferable for accuracy estimation in genomic prediction studies. The performances of the other five methods that use cross-validation were less consistent and varied widely across scenarios. The computing time for the methods increased as the size of outliers and sample size increased and the genetic variance decreased. Copyright © 2014 Ould Estaghvirou et al.

  9. Positional and Dimensional Accuracy Assessment of Drone Images Geo-referenced with Three Different GPSs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, C.; Lee, X.; Xu, J.

    2017-12-01

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or drones have been widely used in environmental, ecological and engineering applications in recent years. These applications require assessment of positional and dimensional accuracy. In this study, positional accuracy refers to the accuracy of the latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates of locations on the mosaicked image in reference to the coordinates of the same locations measured by a Global Positioning System (GPS) in a ground survey, and dimensional accuracy refers to length and height of a ground target. Here, we investigate the effects of the number of Ground Control Points (GCPs) and the accuracy of the GPS used to measure the GCPs on positional and dimensional accuracy of a drone 3D model. Results show that using on-board GPS and a hand-held GPS produce a positional accuracy on the order of 2-9 meters. In comparison, using a differential GPS with high accuracy (30 cm) improves the positional accuracy of the drone model by about 40 %. Increasing the number of GCPs can compensate for the uncertainty brought by the GPS equipment with low accuracy. In terms of the dimensional accuracy of the drone model, even with the use of a low resolution GPS onboard the vehicle, the mean absolute errors are only 0.04 m for height and 0.10 m for length, which are well suited for some applications in precision agriculture and in land survey studies.

  10. The microcomputer scientific software series 4: testing prediction accuracy.

    Treesearch

    H. Michael Rauscher

    1986-01-01

    A computer program, ATEST, is described in this combination user's guide / programmer's manual. ATEST provides users with an efficient and convenient tool to test the accuracy of predictors. As input ATEST requires observed-predicted data pairs. The output reports the two components of accuracy, bias and precision.

  11. Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores.

    PubMed

    Dudbridge, Frank; Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

    2018-02-01

    The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  12. Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores

    PubMed Central

    Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. PMID:29178508

  13. Comparing position and orientation accuracy of different electromagnetic sensors for tracking during interventions.

    PubMed

    Nijkamp, Jasper; Schermers, Bram; Schmitz, Sander; de Jonge, Sofieke; Kuhlmann, Koert; van der Heijden, Ferdinand; Sonke, Jan-Jakob; Ruers, Theo

    2016-08-01

    To compare the position and orientation accuracy between using one 6-degree of freedom (DOF) electromagnetic (EM) sensor, or the position information of three 5DOF sensors within the scope of tumor tracking. The position accuracy of Northern Digital Inc Aurora 5DOF and 6DOF sensors was determined for a table-top field generator (TTFG) up to a distance of 52 cm. For each sensor 716 positions were measured for 10 s at 15 Hz. Orientation accuracy was determined for each of the orthogonal axis at the TTFG distances of 17, 27, 37 and 47 cm. For the 6DOF sensors, orientation was determined for sensors in-line with the orientation axis, and perpendicular. 5DOF orientation accuracy was determined for a theoretical 4 cm tumor. An optical tracking system was used as reference. Position RMSE and jitter were comparable between the sensors and increasing with distance. Jitter was within 0.1 cm SD within 45 cm distance to the TTFG. Position RMSE was approximately 0.1 cm up to 32 cm distance, increasing to 0.4 cm at 52 cm distance. Orientation accuracy of the 6DOF sensor was within 1[Formula: see text], except when the sensor was in-line with the rotation axis perpendicular to the TTFG plane (4[Formula: see text] errors at 47 cm). Orientation accuracy using 5DOF positions was within 1[Formula: see text] up to 37 cm and 2[Formula: see text] at 47 cm. The position and orientation accuracy of a 6DOF sensor was comparable with a sensor configuration consisting of three 5DOF sensors. To achieve tracking accuracy within 1 mm and 1[Formula: see text], the distance to the TTFG should be limited to approximately 30 cm.

  14. Predicting Player Position for Talent Identification in Association Football

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razali, Nazim; Mustapha, Aida; Yatim, Faiz Ahmad; Aziz, Ruhaya Ab

    2017-08-01

    This paper is set to introduce a new framework from the perspective of Computer Science for identifying talents in the sport of football based on the players’ individual qualities; physical, mental, and technical. The combination of qualities as assessed by coaches are then used to predict the players’ position in a match that suits the player the best in a particular team formation. Evaluation of the proposed framework is two-fold; quantitatively via classification experiments to predict player position, and qualitatively via a Talent Identification Site developed to achieve the same goal. Results from the classification experiments using Bayesian Networks, Decision Trees, and K-Nearest Neighbor have shown an average of 98% accuracy, which will promote consistency in decision-making though elimination of personal bias in team selection. The positive reviews on the Football Identification Site based on user acceptance evaluation also indicates that the framework is sufficient to serve as the basis of developing an intelligent team management system in different sports, whereby growth and performance of sport players can be monitored and identified.

  15. Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model: Evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

    PubMed

    Hengartner, M P; Heekeren, K; Dvorsky, D; Walitza, S; Rössler, W; Theodoridou, A

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics. A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Altogether n=24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC]=0.65, P<.05), whereas BS did not predict psychosis beyond mere chance (AUC=0.52, P=.730). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.47 for UHR, and 0.96 and 0.09 for BS. UHR plus BS achieved an AUC=0.66, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.56. In comparison, baseline antipsychotic medication yielded a predictive accuracy of AUC=0.62 (sensitivity=0.42; specificity=0.82). A multivariable prediction model comprising continuous measures of positive symptoms and verbal IQ achieved a substantially improved prognostic accuracy (AUC=0.85; sensitivity=0.86; specificity=0.85; positive predictive value=0.54; negative predictive value=0.97). We showed that BS have no predictive accuracy beyond chance, while UHR criteria poorly predict conversion to psychosis. Combining BS with UHR criteria did not improve the predictive accuracy of UHR alone. In contrast, dimensional measures of both positive symptoms and verbal IQ showed excellent prognostic validity. A critical re-thinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders

  16. Improving orbit prediction accuracy through supervised machine learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Hao; Bai, Xiaoli

    2018-05-01

    Due to the lack of information such as the space environment condition and resident space objects' (RSOs') body characteristics, current orbit predictions that are solely grounded on physics-based models may fail to achieve required accuracy for collision avoidance and have led to satellite collisions already. This paper presents a methodology to predict RSOs' trajectories with higher accuracy than that of the current methods. Inspired by the machine learning (ML) theory through which the models are learned based on large amounts of observed data and the prediction is conducted without explicitly modeling space objects and space environment, the proposed ML approach integrates physics-based orbit prediction algorithms with a learning-based process that focuses on reducing the prediction errors. Using a simulation-based space catalog environment as the test bed, the paper demonstrates three types of generalization capability for the proposed ML approach: (1) the ML model can be used to improve the same RSO's orbit information that is not available during the learning process but shares the same time interval as the training data; (2) the ML model can be used to improve predictions of the same RSO at future epochs; and (3) the ML model based on a RSO can be applied to other RSOs that share some common features.

  17. Researches on High Accuracy Prediction Methods of Earth Orientation Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, X. Q.

    2015-09-01

    The Earth rotation reflects the coupling process among the solid Earth, atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and core of the Earth on multiple spatial and temporal scales. The Earth rotation can be described by the Earth's orientation parameters, which are abbreviated as EOP (mainly including two polar motion components PM_X and PM_Y, and variation in the length of day ΔLOD). The EOP is crucial in the transformation between the terrestrial and celestial reference systems, and has important applications in many areas such as the deep space exploration, satellite precise orbit determination, and astrogeodynamics. However, the EOP products obtained by the space geodetic technologies generally delay by several days to two weeks. The growing demands for modern space navigation make high-accuracy EOP prediction be a worthy topic. This thesis is composed of the following three aspects, for the purpose of improving the EOP forecast accuracy. (1) We analyze the relation between the length of the basic data series and the EOP forecast accuracy, and compare the EOP prediction accuracy for the linear autoregressive (AR) model and the nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) method by performing the least squares (LS) extrapolations. The results show that the high precision forecast of EOP can be realized by appropriate selection of the basic data series length according to the required time span of EOP prediction: for short-term prediction, the basic data series should be shorter, while for the long-term prediction, the series should be longer. The analysis also showed that the LS+AR model is more suitable for the short-term forecasts, while the LS+ANN model shows the advantages in the medium- and long-term forecasts. (2) We develop for the first time a new method which combines the autoregressive model and Kalman filter (AR+Kalman) in short-term EOP prediction. The equations of observation and state are established using the EOP series and the autoregressive coefficients

  18. The Accuracy of Urinalysis in Predicting Intra-Abdominal Injury Following Blunt Traumas.

    PubMed

    Sabzghabaei, Anita; Shojaee, Majid; Safari, Saeed; Hatamabadi, Hamid Reza; Shirvani, Reza

    2016-01-01

    In cases of blunt abdominal traumas, predicting the possible intra-abdominal injuries is still a challenge for the physicians involved with these patients. Therefore, this study was designed, to evaluate the accuracy of urinalysis in predicting intra-abdominal injuries. Patients aged 15 to 65 years with blunt abdominal trauma who were admitted to emergency departments were enrolled. Abdominopelvic computed tomography (CT) scan with intravenous contrast and urinalysis were requested for all the included patients. Demographic data, trauma mechanism, the results of urinalysis, and the results of abdominopelvic CT scan were gathered. Finally, the correlation between the results of abdominopelvic CT scan, and urinalysis was determined. Urinalysis was considered positive in case of at least one positive value in gross appearance, blood in dipstick, or red blood cell count. 325 patients with blunt abdominal trauma were admitted to the emergency departments (83% male with the mean age of 32.63±17.48 years). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of urinalysis, were 77.9% (95% CI: 69.6-84.4), 58.5% (95% CI: 51.2-65.5), 56% (95% CI: 48.5-63.3), 79.6% (95% CI: 71.8-85.7), 1.27% (95% CI: 1.30-1.57), and 0.25% (95% CI: 0.18-0.36), respectively. The diagnostic value of urinalysis in prediction of blunt traumatic intra-abdominal injuries is low and it seems that it should be considered as an adjuvant diagnostic tool, in conjunction with other sources such as clinical findings and imaging.

  19. Measuring diagnostic and predictive accuracy in disease management: an introduction to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

    PubMed

    Linden, Ariel

    2006-04-01

    Diagnostic or predictive accuracy concerns are common in all phases of a disease management (DM) programme, and ultimately play an influential role in the assessment of programme effectiveness. Areas, such as the identification of diseased patients, predictive modelling of future health status and costs and risk stratification, are just a few of the domains in which assessment of accuracy is beneficial, if not critical. The most commonly used analytical model for this purpose is the standard 2 x 2 table method in which sensitivity and specificity are calculated. However, there are several limitations to this approach, including the reliance on a single defined criterion or cut-off for determining a true-positive result, use of non-standardized measurement instruments and sensitivity to outcome prevalence. This paper introduces the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis as a more appropriate and useful technique for assessing diagnostic and predictive accuracy in DM. Its advantages include; testing accuracy across the entire range of scores and thereby not requiring a predetermined cut-off point, easily examined visual and statistical comparisons across tests or scores, and independence from outcome prevalence. Therefore the implementation of ROC as an evaluation tool should be strongly considered in the various phases of a DM programme.

  20. Group Sequential Testing of the Predictive Accuracy of a Continuous Biomarker with Unknown Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Feng, Ziding

    2015-01-01

    Group sequential testing procedures have been proposed as an approach to conserving resources in biomarker validation studies. Previously, Koopmeiners and Feng (2011) derived the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value curves, which summarize the predictive accuracy of a continuous marker, under case-control sampling. A limitation of their approach is that the prevalence can not be estimated from a case-control study and must be assumed known. In this manuscript, we consider group sequential testing of the predictive accuracy of a continuous biomarker with unknown prevalence. First, we develop asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical PPV and NPV curves when the prevalence must be estimated, rather than assumed known in a case-control study. We then discuss how our results can be combined with standard group sequential methods to develop group sequential testing procedures and bias-adjusted estimators for the PPV and NPV curve. The small sample properties of the proposed group sequential testing procedures and estimators are evaluated by simulation and we illustrate our approach in the context of a study to validate a novel biomarker for prostate cancer. PMID:26537180

  1. The accuracy with which adults who do not stutter predict stuttering-related communication attitudes.

    PubMed

    Logan, Kenneth J; Willis, Julie R

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which adults who do not stutter can predict communication-related attitudes of adults who do stutter. 40 participants (mean age of 22.5 years) evaluated speech samples from an adult with mild stuttering and an adult with severe stuttering via audio-only (n=20) or audio-visual (n=20) modes to predict how the adults had responded on the S24 scale of communication attitudes. Participants correctly predicted which speaker had the more favorable S24 score, and the predicted scores were significantly different between the severity conditions. Across the four subgroups, predicted S24 scores differed from actual scores by 4-9 points. Predicted values were greater than the actual values for 3 of 4 subgroups, but still relatively positive in relation to the S24 norm sample. Stimulus presentation mode interacted with stuttering severity to affect prediction accuracy. The participants predicted the speakers' negative self-attributions more accurately than their positive self-attributions. Findings suggest that adults who do not stutter estimate the communication-related attitudes of specific adults who stutter in a manner that is generally accurate, though, in some conditions, somewhat less favorable than the speaker's actual ratings. At a group level, adults who do not stutter demonstrate the ability to discern minimal versus average levels of attitudinal impact for speakers who stutter. The participants' complex prediction patterns are discussed in relation to stereotype accuracy and classic views of negative stereotyping. The reader will be able to (a) summarize main findings on research related to listeners' attitudes toward people who stutter, (b) describe the extent to which people who do not stutter can predict the communication attitudes of people who do stutter; and (c) discuss how findings from the present study relate to previous findings on stereotypes about people who stutter. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc

  2. Positive Illusions? The Accuracy of Academic Self-Appraisals in Adolescents With ADHD.

    PubMed

    Chan, Todd; Martinussen, Rhonda

    2016-08-01

    Children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) overestimate their academic competencies (AC) relative to performance and informant indicators (i.e., positive illusory bias; PIB). Do adolescents with ADHD exhibit this PIB and does it render self-views inaccurate? We examined the magnitude of the AC-PIB in adolescents with and without ADHD, the predictive accuracy of parent and adolescent AC ratings, and whether executive functions (EF) predict the AC-PIB. Adolescents (49 ADHD; 47 typically developing) completed math and EF tests, and self-rated their AC. Parents rated their adolescents' AC and EF. Adolescents with ADHD performed more poorly on the math task (vs. comparison group) but had a larger AC-PIB relative to parents' ratings. EFs predicted the PIB within the full sample. Adolescents' AC ratings, regardless of ADHD status, were more predictive of math performance than their parents' AC ratings. Adolescents with ADHD appear self-aware in their AC despite a modest PIB; nuanced self-appraisals may depend on EFs. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. A threshold-free summary index of prediction accuracy for censored time to event data.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Yan; Zhou, Qian M; Li, Bingying; Cai, Hengrui; Chow, Eric J; Armstrong, Gregory T

    2018-05-10

    Prediction performance of a risk scoring system needs to be carefully assessed before its adoption in clinical practice. Clinical preventive care often uses risk scores to screen asymptomatic population. The primary clinical interest is to predict the risk of having an event by a prespecified future time t 0 . Accuracy measures such as positive predictive values have been recommended for evaluating the predictive performance. However, for commonly used continuous or ordinal risk score systems, these measures require a subjective cutoff threshold value that dichotomizes the risk scores. The need for a cutoff value created barriers for practitioners and researchers. In this paper, we propose a threshold-free summary index of positive predictive values that accommodates time-dependent event status and competing risks. We develop a nonparametric estimator and provide an inference procedure for comparing this summary measure between 2 risk scores for censored time to event data. We conduct a simulation study to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation and inference procedures. Lastly, we illustrate the use of this measure on a real data example, comparing 2 risk score systems for predicting heart failure in childhood cancer survivors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Prediction of subcellular localization of eukaryotic proteins using position-specific profiles and neural network with weighted inputs.

    PubMed

    Zou, Lingyun; Wang, Zhengzhi; Huang, Jiaomin

    2007-12-01

    Subcellular location is one of the key biological characteristics of proteins. Position-specific profiles (PSP) have been introduced as important characteristics of proteins in this article. In this study, to obtain position-specific profiles, the Position Specific Iterative-Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (PSI-BLAST) has been used to search for protein sequences in a database. Position-specific scoring matrices are extracted from the profiles as one class of characteristics. Four-part amino acid compositions and 1st-7th order dipeptide compositions have also been calculated as the other two classes of characteristics. Therefore, twelve characteristic vectors are extracted from each of the protein sequences. Next, the characteristic vectors are weighed by a simple weighing function and inputted into a BP neural network predictor named PSP-Weighted Neural Network (PSP-WNN). The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is employed to adjust the weight matrices and thresholds during the network training instead of the error back propagation algorithm. With a jackknife test on the RH2427 dataset, PSP-WNN has achieved a higher overall prediction accuracy of 88.4% rather than the prediction results by the general BP neural network, Markov model, and fuzzy k-nearest neighbors algorithm on this dataset. In addition, the prediction performance of PSP-WNN has been evaluated with a five-fold cross validation test on the PK7579 dataset and the prediction results have been consistently better than those of the previous method on the basis of several support vector machines, using compositions of both amino acids and amino acid pairs. These results indicate that PSP-WNN is a powerful tool for subcellular localization prediction. At the end of the article, influences on prediction accuracy using different weighting proportions among three characteristic vector categories have been discussed. An appropriate proportion is considered by increasing the prediction accuracy.

  5. Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Values, and Accuracy of Three Diagnostic Tests to Predict Inferior Alveolar Nerve Blockade Failure in Symptomatic Irreversible Pulpitis

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez-Wong, Laura; Noguera-González, Danny; Esparza-Villalpando, Vicente; Montero-Aguilar, Mauricio

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB) is the most common anesthetic technique used on mandibular teeth during root canal treatment. Its success in the presence of preoperative inflammation is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and accuracy of three diagnostic tests used to predict IANB failure in symptomatic irreversible pulpitis (SIP). Methodology A cross-sectional study was carried out on the mandibular molars of 53 patients with SIP. All patients received a single cartridge of mepivacaine 2% with 1 : 100000 epinephrine using the IANB technique. Three diagnostic clinical tests were performed to detect anesthetic failure. Anesthetic failure was defined as a positive painful response to any of the three tests. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, and ROC curves were calculated and compared and significant differences were analyzed. Results IANB failure was determined in 71.7% of the patients. The sensitivity scores for the three tests (lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access) were 0.03, 0.35, and 0.55, respectively, and the specificity score was determined as 1 for all of the tests. Clinically, none of the evaluated tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy (0.30, 0.53, and 0.68 for lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access, resp.). A comparison of the areas under the curve in the ROC analyses showed statistically significant differences between the three tests (p < 0.05). Conclusion None of the analyzed tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy to be considered a reliable diagnostic tool for the prediction of anesthetic failure. PMID:28694714

  6. Accuracy of velocities from repeated GPS surveys: relative positioning is concerned

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duman, Huseyin; Ugur Sanli, D.

    2016-04-01

    Over more than a decade, researchers have been interested in studying the accuracy of GPS positioning solutions. Recently, reporting the accuracy of GPS velocities has been added to this. Researchers studying landslide motion, tectonic motion, uplift, sea level rise, and subsidence still report results from GPS experiments in which repeated GPS measurements from short sessions are used. This motivated some other researchers to study the accuracy of GPS deformation rates/velocities from various repeated GPS surveys. In one of the efforts, the velocity accuracy was derived from repeated GPS static surveys using short observation sessions and Precise Point Positioning mode of GPS software. Velocities from short GPS sessions were compared with the velocities from 24 h sessions. The accuracy of velocities was obtained using statistical hypothesis testing and quantifying the accuracy of least squares estimation models. The results reveal that 45-60 % of the horizontal and none of the vertical solutions comply with the results from 24 h solutions. We argue that this case in which the data was evaluated using PPP should also apply to the case in which the data belonging to long GPS base lengths is processed using fundamental relative point positioning. To test this idea we chose the two IGS stations ANKR and NICO and derive their velocities from the reference stations held fixed in the stable EURASIAN plate. The University of Bern's GNSS software BERNESE was used to produce relative positioning solutions, and the results are compared with those of GIPSY/OASIS II PPP results. First impressions indicate that it is worth designing a global experiment and test these ideas in detail.

  7. A Comparative Study of Precise Point Positioning (PPP) Accuracy Using Online Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malinowski, Marcin; Kwiecień, Janusz

    2016-12-01

    Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is a technique used to determine the position of receiver antenna without communication with the reference station. It may be an alternative solution to differential measurements, where maintaining a connection with a single RTK station or a regional network of reference stations RTN is necessary. This situation is especially common in areas with poorly developed infrastructure of ground stations. A lot of research conducted so far on the use of the PPP technique has been concerned about the development of entire day observation sessions. However, this paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of accuracy of absolute determination of position from observations which last between 1 to 7 hours with the use of four permanent services which execute calculations with PPP technique such as: Automatic Precise Positioning Service (APPS), Canadian Spatial Reference System Precise Point Positioning (CSRS-PPP), GNSS Analysis and Positioning Software (GAPS) and magicPPP - Precise Point Positioning Solution (magicGNSS). On the basis of acquired results of measurements, it can be concluded that at least two-hour long measurements allow acquiring an absolute position with an accuracy of 2-4 cm. An evaluation of the impact on the accuracy of simultaneous positioning of three points test network on the change of the horizontal distance and the relative height difference between measured triangle vertices was also conducted. Distances and relative height differences between points of the triangular test network measured with a laser station Leica TDRA6000 were adopted as references. The analyses of results show that at least two hours long measurement sessions can be used to determine the horizontal distance or the difference in height with an accuracy of 1-2 cm. Rapid products employed in calculations conducted with PPP technique reached the accuracy of determining coordinates on a close level as in elaborations which employ Final products.

  8. Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, S.; Grace, M.; Williams, D.

    1999-01-01

    The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major

  9. Effect of CTA Tube Current on Spot Sign Detection and Accuracy for Prediction of Intracerebral Hemorrhage Expansion.

    PubMed

    Morotti, A; Romero, J M; Jessel, M J; Brouwers, H B; Gupta, R; Schwab, K; Vashkevich, A; Ayres, A; Anderson, C D; Gurol, M E; Viswanathan, A; Greenberg, S M; Rosand, J; Goldstein, J N

    2016-05-19

    Reduction of CT tube current is an effective strategy to minimize radiation load. However, tube current is also a major determinant of image quality. We investigated the impact of CTA tube current on spot sign detection and diagnostic performance for intracerebral hemorrhage expansion. We retrospectively analyzed a prospectively collected cohort of consecutive patients with primary intracerebral hemorrhage from January 2001 to April 2015 who underwent CTA. The study population was divided into 2 groups according to the median CTA tube current level: low current (<350 mA) and high current (≥350 mA). CTA first-pass readings for spot sign presence were independently analyzed by 2 readers. Baseline and follow-up hematoma volumes were assessed by semiautomated computer-assisted volumetric analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy of spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion were calculated. This study included 709 patients (288 and 421 in the low- and high-current groups, respectively). A higher proportion of low-current scans identified at least 1 spot sign (20.8% versus 14.7%, P = .034), but hematoma expansion frequency was similar in the 2 groups (18.4% versus 16.2%, P = .434). Sensitivity and positive and negative predictive values were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Conversely, high-current scans showed superior specificity (91% versus 84%, P = .015) and overall accuracy (84% versus 77%, P = .038). CTA obtained at high levels of tube current showed better diagnostic accuracy for prediction of hematoma expansion by using spot sign. These findings may have implications for future studies using the CTA spot sign to predict hematoma expansion for clinical trials. © 2016 American Society of Neuroradiology.

  10. PreCisIon: PREdiction of CIS-regulatory elements improved by gene's positION.

    PubMed

    Elati, Mohamed; Nicolle, Rémy; Junier, Ivan; Fernández, David; Fekih, Rim; Font, Julio; Képès, François

    2013-02-01

    Conventional approaches to predict transcriptional regulatory interactions usually rely on the definition of a shared motif sequence on the target genes of a transcription factor (TF). These efforts have been frustrated by the limited availability and accuracy of TF binding site motifs, usually represented as position-specific scoring matrices, which may match large numbers of sites and produce an unreliable list of target genes. To improve the prediction of binding sites, we propose to additionally use the unrelated knowledge of the genome layout. Indeed, it has been shown that co-regulated genes tend to be either neighbors or periodically spaced along the whole chromosome. This study demonstrates that respective gene positioning carries significant information. This novel type of information is combined with traditional sequence information by a machine learning algorithm called PreCisIon. To optimize this combination, PreCisIon builds a strong gene target classifier by adaptively combining weak classifiers based on either local binding sequence or global gene position. This strategy generically paves the way to the optimized incorporation of any future advances in gene target prediction based on local sequence, genome layout or on novel criteria. With the current state of the art, PreCisIon consistently improves methods based on sequence information only. This is shown by implementing a cross-validation analysis of the 20 major TFs from two phylogenetically remote model organisms. For Bacillus subtilis and Escherichia coli, respectively, PreCisIon achieves on average an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 70 and 60%, a sensitivity of 80 and 70% and a specificity of 60 and 56%. The newly predicted gene targets are demonstrated to be functionally consistent with previously known targets, as assessed by analysis of Gene Ontology enrichment or of the relevant literature and databases.

  11. Investigation on the Accuracy of Superposition Predictions of Film Cooling Effectiveness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Tong; Zhu, Hui-ren; Liu, Cun-liang; Wei, Jian-sheng

    2018-05-01

    Film cooling effectiveness on flat plates with double rows of holes has been studied experimentally and numerically in this paper. This configuration is widely used to simulate the multi-row film cooling on turbine vane. Film cooling effectiveness of double rows of holes and each single row was used to study the accuracy of superposition predictions. Method of stable infrared measurement technique was used to measure the surface temperature on the flat plate. This paper analyzed the factors that affect the film cooling effectiveness including hole shape, hole arrangement, row-to-row spacing and blowing ratio. Numerical simulations were performed to analyze the flow structure and film cooling mechanisms between each film cooling row. Results show that the blowing ratio within the range of 0.5 to 2 has a significant influence on the accuracy of superposition predictions. At low blowing ratios, results obtained by superposition method agree well with the experimental data. While at high blowing ratios, the accuracy of superposition prediction decreases. Another significant factor is hole arrangement. Results obtained by superposition prediction are nearly the same as experimental values of staggered arrangement structures. For in-line configurations, the superposition values of film cooling effectiveness are much higher than experimental data. For different hole shapes, the accuracy of superposition predictions on converging-expanding holes is better than cylinder holes and compound angle holes. For two different hole spacing structures in this paper, predictions show good agreement with the experiment results.

  12. Predictive accuracy of risk scales following self-harm: multicentre, prospective cohort study†

    PubMed Central

    Quinlivan, Leah; Cooper, Jayne; Meehan, Declan; Longson, Damien; Potokar, John; Hulme, Tom; Marsden, Jennifer; Brand, Fiona; Lange, Kezia; Riseborough, Elena; Page, Lisa; Metcalfe, Chris; Davies, Linda; O'Connor, Rory; Hawton, Keith; Gunnell, David; Kapur, Nav

    2017-01-01

    Background Scales are widely used in psychiatric assessments following self-harm. Robust evidence for their diagnostic use is lacking. Aims To evaluate the performance of risk scales (Manchester Self-Harm Rule, ReACT Self-Harm Rule, SAD PERSONS scale, Modified SAD PERSONS scale, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale); and patient and clinician estimates of risk in identifying patients who repeat self-harm within 6 months. Method A multisite prospective cohort study was conducted of adults aged 18 years and over referred to liaison psychiatry services following self-harm. Scale a priori cut-offs were evaluated using diagnostic accuracy statistics. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine optimal cut-offs and compare global accuracy. Results In total, 483 episodes of self-harm were included in the study. The episode-based 6-month repetition rate was 30% (n = 145). Sensitivity ranged from 1% (95% CI 0–5) for the SAD PERSONS scale, to 97% (95% CI 93–99) for the Manchester Self-Harm Rule. Positive predictive values ranged from 13% (95% CI 2–47) for the Modified SAD PERSONS Scale to 47% (95% CI 41–53) for the clinician assessment of risk. The AUC ranged from 0.55 (95% CI 0.50–0.61) for the SAD PERSONS scale to 0.74 (95% CI 0.69–0.79) for the clinician global scale. The remaining scales performed significantly worse than clinician and patient estimates of risk (P<0.001). Conclusions Risk scales following self-harm have limited clinical utility and may waste valuable resources. Most scales performed no better than clinician or patient ratings of risk. Some performed considerably worse. Positive predictive values were modest. In line with national guidelines, risk scales should not be used to determine patient management or predict self-harm. PMID:28302702

  13. Predictive accuracy of risk scales following self-harm: multicentre, prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Quinlivan, Leah; Cooper, Jayne; Meehan, Declan; Longson, Damien; Potokar, John; Hulme, Tom; Marsden, Jennifer; Brand, Fiona; Lange, Kezia; Riseborough, Elena; Page, Lisa; Metcalfe, Chris; Davies, Linda; O'Connor, Rory; Hawton, Keith; Gunnell, David; Kapur, Nav

    2017-06-01

    Background Scales are widely used in psychiatric assessments following self-harm. Robust evidence for their diagnostic use is lacking. Aims To evaluate the performance of risk scales (Manchester Self-Harm Rule, ReACT Self-Harm Rule, SAD PERSONS scale, Modified SAD PERSONS scale, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale); and patient and clinician estimates of risk in identifying patients who repeat self-harm within 6 months. Method A multisite prospective cohort study was conducted of adults aged 18 years and over referred to liaison psychiatry services following self-harm. Scale a priori cut-offs were evaluated using diagnostic accuracy statistics. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine optimal cut-offs and compare global accuracy. Results In total, 483 episodes of self-harm were included in the study. The episode-based 6-month repetition rate was 30% ( n = 145). Sensitivity ranged from 1% (95% CI 0-5) for the SAD PERSONS scale, to 97% (95% CI 93-99) for the Manchester Self-Harm Rule. Positive predictive values ranged from 13% (95% CI 2-47) for the Modified SAD PERSONS Scale to 47% (95% CI 41-53) for the clinician assessment of risk. The AUC ranged from 0.55 (95% CI 0.50-0.61) for the SAD PERSONS scale to 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.79) for the clinician global scale. The remaining scales performed significantly worse than clinician and patient estimates of risk ( P <0.001). Conclusions Risk scales following self-harm have limited clinical utility and may waste valuable resources. Most scales performed no better than clinician or patient ratings of risk. Some performed considerably worse. Positive predictive values were modest. In line with national guidelines, risk scales should not be used to determine patient management or predict self-harm. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.

  14. Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hasselman, Timothy K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

    1991-01-01

    Modeling uncertainty is defined in terms of the difference between predicted and measured eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Data compiled from 22 sets of analysis/test results was used to create statistical databases for large truss-type space structures and both pretest and posttest models of conventional satellite-type space structures. Modeling uncertainty is propagated through the model to produce intervals of uncertainty on frequency response functions, both amplitude and phase. This methodology was used successfully to evaluate the predictive accuracy of several structures, including the NASA CSI Evolutionary Structure tested at Langley Research Center. Test measurements for this structure were within + one-sigma intervals of predicted accuracy for the most part, demonstrating the validity of the methodology and computer code.

  15. Empirical Accuracies of U.S. Space Surveillance Network Reentry Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Nicholas L.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) issues formal satellite reentry predictions for objects which have the potential for generating debris which could pose a hazard to people or property on Earth. These prognostications, known as Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages, are nominally distributed at daily intervals beginning four days prior to the anticipated reentry and several times during the final 24 hours in orbit. The accuracy of these messages depends on the nature of the satellite s orbit, the characteristics of the space vehicle, solar activity, and many other factors. Despite the many influences on the time and the location of reentry, a useful assessment of the accuracies of TIP messages can be derived and compared with the official accuracies included with each TIP message. This paper summarizes the results of a study of numerous uncontrolled reentries of spacecraft and rocket bodies from nearly circular orbits over a span of several years. Insights are provided into the empirical accuracies and utility of SSN TIP messages.

  16. Photon caliper to achieve submillimeter positioning accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallagher, Kyle J.; Wong, Jennifer; Zhang, Junan

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of using a commercial two-dimensional (2D) detector array with an inherent detector spacing of 5 mm to achieve submillimeter accuracy in localizing the radiation isocenter. This was accomplished by delivering the Vernier ‘dose’ caliper to a 2D detector array where the nominal scale was the 2D detector array and the non-nominal Vernier scale was the radiation dose strips produced by the high-definition (HD) multileaf collimators (MLCs) of the linear accelerator. Because the HD MLC sequence was similar to the picket fence test, we called this procedure the Vernier picket fence (VPF) test. We confirmed the accuracy of the VPF test by offsetting the HD MLC bank by known increments and comparing the known offset with the VPF test result. The VPF test was able to determine the known offset within 0.02 mm. We also cross-validated the accuracy of the VPF test in an evaluation of couch hysteresis. This was done by using both the VPF test and the ExacTrac optical tracking system to evaluate the couch position. We showed that the VPF test was in agreement with the ExacTrac optical tracking system within a root-mean-square value of 0.07 mm for both the lateral and longitudinal directions. In conclusion, we demonstrated the VPF test can determine the offset between a 2D detector array and the radiation isocenter with submillimeter accuracy. Until now, no method to locate the radiation isocenter using a 2D detector array has been able to achieve such accuracy.

  17. Accuracy of maxillary positioning after standard and inverted orthognathic sequencing.

    PubMed

    Ritto, Fabio G; Ritto, Thiago G; Ribeiro, Danilo Passeado; Medeiros, Paulo José; de Moraes, Márcio

    2014-05-01

    This study aimed to compare the accuracy of maxillary positioning after bimaxillary orthognathic surgery, using 2 sequences. A total of 80 cephalograms (40 preoperative and 40 postoperative) from 40 patients were analyzed. Group 1 included radiographs of patients submitted to conventional sequence, whereas group 2 patients were submitted to inverted sequence. The final position of the maxillary central incisor was obtained after vertical and horizontal measurements of the tracings, and it was compared with what had been planned. The null hypothesis, which stated that there would be no difference between the groups, was tested. After applying the Welch t test for comparison of mean differences between maxillary desired and achieved position, considering a statistical significance of 5% and a 2-tailed test, the null hypothesis was not rejected (P > .05). Thus, there was no difference in the accuracy of maxillary positioning between groups. Conventional and inverted sequencing proved to be reliable in positioning the maxilla after LeFort I osteotomy in bimaxillary orthognathic surgeries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Positioning accuracy in a registration-free CT-based navigation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandenberger, D.; Birkfellner, W.; Baumann, B.; Messmer, P.; Huegli, R. W.; Regazzoni, P.; Jacob, A. L.

    2007-12-01

    In order to maintain overall navigation accuracy established by a calibration procedure in our CT-based registration-free navigation system, the CT scanner has to repeatedly generate identical volume images of a target at the same coordinates. We tested the positioning accuracy of the prototype of an advanced workplace for image-guided surgery (AWIGS) which features an operating table capable of direct patient transfer into a CT scanner. Volume images (N = 154) of a specialized phantom were analysed for translational shifting after various table translations. Variables included added weight and phantom position on the table. The navigation system's calibration accuracy was determined (bias 2.1 mm, precision ± 0.7 mm, N = 12). In repeated use, a bias of 3.0 mm and a precision of ± 0.9 mm (N = 10) were maintainable. Instances of translational image shifting were related to the table-to-CT scanner docking mechanism. A distance scaling error when altering the table's height was detected. Initial prototype problems visible in our study causing systematic errors were resolved by repeated system calibrations between interventions. We conclude that the accuracy achieved is sufficient for a wide range of clinical applications in surgery and interventional radiology.

  19. Arm-Positioning Accuracy as a Function of Direction, Extent, and Presentation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casher, Bonnie Berger; Stadulis, Robert E.

    1975-01-01

    Accuracy of horizontal arm-positioning toward the midline of the body was investigated, comparing two methods of presentation of the test position (verbal versus passive movement) and three extents of angular displacement. (RC)

  20. Using electronic data to predict the probability of true bacteremia from positive blood cultures.

    PubMed

    Wang, S J; Kuperman, G J; Ohno-Machado, L; Onderdonk, A; Sandige, H; Bates, D W

    2000-01-01

    As part of a project to help physicians make more appropriate treatment decisions, we implemented a clinical prediction rule that computes the probability of true bacteremia for positive blood cultures and displays this information when culture results are viewed online. Prior to implementing the rule, we performed a revalidation study to verify the accuracy of the previously published logistic regression model. We randomly selected 114 cases of positive blood cultures from a recent one-year period and performed a paper chart review with the help of infectious disease experts to determine whether the cultures were true positives or contaminants. Based on the results of this revalidation study, we updated the probabilities reported by the model and made additional enhancements to improve the accuracy of the rule. Next, we implemented the rule into our hospital's laboratory computer system so that the probability information was displayed with all positive blood culture results. We displayed the prediction rule information on approximately half of the 2184 positive blood cultures at our hospital that were randomly selected during a 6-month period. During the study, we surveyed 54 housestaff to obtain their opinions about the usefulness of this intervention. Fifty percent (27/54) indicated that the information had influenced their belief of the probability of bacteremia in their patients, and in 28% (15/54) of cases it changed their treatment decision. Almost all (98% (53/54)) indicated that they wanted to continue receiving this information. We conclude that the probability information provided by this clinical prediction rule is considered useful to physicians when making treatment decisions.

  1. Predictive accuracy of changes in transvaginal sonographic cervical length over time for preterm birth: a systematic review and metaanalysis.

    PubMed

    Conde-Agudelo, Agustin; Romero, Roberto

    2015-12-01

    To determine the accuracy of changes in transvaginal sonographic cervical length over time in predicting preterm birth in women with singleton and twin gestations. PubMed, Embase, Cinahl, Lilacs, and Medion (all from inception to June 30, 2015), bibliographies, Google scholar, and conference proceedings. Cohort or cross-sectional studies reporting on the predictive accuracy for preterm birth of changes in cervical length over time. Two reviewers independently selected studies, assessed the risk of bias, and extracted the data. Summary receiver-operating characteristic curves, pooled sensitivities and specificities, and summary likelihood ratios were generated. Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 7 provided data on singleton gestations (3374 women) and 8 on twin gestations (1024 women). Among women with singleton gestations, the shortening of cervical length over time had a low predictive accuracy for preterm birth at <37 and <35 weeks of gestation with pooled sensitivities and specificities, and summary positive and negative likelihood ratios ranging from 49% to 74%, 44% to 85%, 1.3 to 4.1, and 0.3 to 0.7, respectively. In women with twin gestations, the shortening of cervical length over time had a low to moderate predictive accuracy for preterm birth at <34, <32, <30, and <28 weeks of gestation with pooled sensitivities and specificities, and summary positive and negative likelihood ratios ranging from 47% to 73%, 84% to 89%, 3.8 to 5.3, and 0.3 to 0.6, respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between the predictive accuracies for preterm birth of cervical length shortening over time and the single initial and/or final cervical length measurement in 8 of 11 studies that provided data for making these comparisons. In the largest and highest-quality study, a single measurement of cervical length obtained at 24 or 28 weeks of gestation was significantly more predictive of preterm birth than any decrease in cervical length

  2. Integrated Strategy Improves the Prediction Accuracy of miRNA in Large Dataset

    PubMed Central

    Lipps, David; Devineni, Sree

    2016-01-01

    MiRNAs are short non-coding RNAs of about 22 nucleotides, which play critical roles in gene expression regulation. The biogenesis of miRNAs is largely determined by the sequence and structural features of their parental RNA molecules. Based on these features, multiple computational tools have been developed to predict if RNA transcripts contain miRNAs or not. Although being very successful, these predictors started to face multiple challenges in recent years. Many predictors were optimized using datasets of hundreds of miRNA samples. The sizes of these datasets are much smaller than the number of known miRNAs. Consequently, the prediction accuracy of these predictors in large dataset becomes unknown and needs to be re-tested. In addition, many predictors were optimized for either high sensitivity or high specificity. These optimization strategies may bring in serious limitations in applications. Moreover, to meet continuously raised expectations on these computational tools, improving the prediction accuracy becomes extremely important. In this study, a meta-predictor mirMeta was developed by integrating a set of non-linear transformations with meta-strategy. More specifically, the outputs of five individual predictors were first preprocessed using non-linear transformations, and then fed into an artificial neural network to make the meta-prediction. The prediction accuracy of meta-predictor was validated using both multi-fold cross-validation and independent dataset. The final accuracy of meta-predictor in newly-designed large dataset is improved by 7% to 93%. The meta-predictor is also proved to be less dependent on datasets, as well as has refined balance between sensitivity and specificity. This study has two folds of importance: First, it shows that the combination of non-linear transformations and artificial neural networks improves the prediction accuracy of individual predictors. Second, a new miRNA predictor with significantly improved prediction accuracy

  3. CPO Prediction: Accuracy Assessment and Impact on UT1 Intensive Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malkin, Zinovy

    2010-01-01

    The UT1 Intensive results heavily depend on the celestial pole offset (CPO) model used during data processing. Since accurate CPO values are available with a delay of two to four weeks, CPO predictions are necessarily applied to the UT1 Intensive data analysis, and errors in the predictions can influence the operational UT1 accuracy. In this paper we assess the real accuracy of CPO prediction using the actual IERS and PUL predictions made in 2007-2009. Also, results of operational processing were analyzed to investigate the actual impact of EOP prediction errors on the rapid UT1 results. It was found that the impact of CPO prediction errors is at a level of several microseconds, whereas the impact of the inaccuracy in the polar motion prediction may be about one order of magnitude larger for ultra-rapid UT1 results. The situation can be amended if the IERS Rapid solution will be updated more frequently.

  4. Estimation of genomic prediction accuracy from reference populations with varying degrees of relationship.

    PubMed

    Lee, S Hong; Clark, Sam; van der Werf, Julius H J

    2017-01-01

    Genomic prediction is emerging in a wide range of fields including animal and plant breeding, risk prediction in human precision medicine and forensic. It is desirable to establish a theoretical framework for genomic prediction accuracy when the reference data consists of information sources with varying degrees of relationship to the target individuals. A reference set can contain both close and distant relatives as well as 'unrelated' individuals from the wider population in the genomic prediction. The various sources of information were modeled as different populations with different effective population sizes (Ne). Both the effective number of chromosome segments (Me) and Ne are considered to be a function of the data used for prediction. We validate our theory with analyses of simulated as well as real data, and illustrate that the variation in genomic relationships with the target is a predictor of the information content of the reference set. With a similar amount of data available for each source, we show that close relatives can have a substantially larger effect on genomic prediction accuracy than lesser related individuals. We also illustrate that when prediction relies on closer relatives, there is less improvement in prediction accuracy with an increase in training data or marker panel density. We release software that can estimate the expected prediction accuracy and power when combining different reference sources with various degrees of relationship to the target, which is useful when planning genomic prediction (before or after collecting data) in animal, plant and human genetics.

  5. Diagnostic accuracy of uriSed automated urine microscopic sediment analyzer and dipstick parameters in predicting urine culture test results.

    PubMed

    Huysal, Kağan; Budak, Yasemin U; Karaca, Ayse Ulusoy; Aydos, Murat; Kahvecioğlu, Serdar; Bulut, Mehtap; Polat, Murat

    2013-01-01

    Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common types of infection. Currently, diagnosis is primarily based on microbiologic culture, which is time- and labor-consuming. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of urinalysis results from UriSed (77 Electronica, Budapest, Hungary), an automated microscopic image-based sediment analyzer, in predicting positive urine cultures. We examined a total of 384 urine specimens from hospitalized patients and outpatients attending our hospital on the same day for urinalysis, dipstick tests and semi-quantitative urine culture. The urinalysis results were compared with those of conventional semiquantitative urine culture. Of 384 urinary specimens, 68 were positive for bacteriuria by culture, and were thus considered true positives. Comparison of these results with those obtained from the UriSed analyzer indicated that the analyzer had a specificity of 91.1%, a sensitivity of 47.0%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 53.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 40.8-65.3), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 88.8% (95% CI = 85.0-91.8%). The accuracy was 83.3% when the urine leukocyte parameter was used, 76.8% when bacteriuria analysis of urinary sediment was used, and 85.1% when the bacteriuria and leukocyturia parameters were combined. The presence of nitrite was the best indicator of culture positivity (99.3% specificity) but had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.7, indicating that it was not a reliable clinical test. Although the specificity of the UriSed analyzer was within acceptable limits, the sensitivity value was low. Thus, UriSed urinalysis resuIts do not accurately predict the outcome of culture.

  6. Accuracy Analysis of Precise Point Positioning of Compass Navigation System Applied to Crustal Motion Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuebing

    2017-04-01

    Based on the observation data of Compass/GPSobserved at five stations, time span from July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2016. UsingPPP positioning model of the PANDA software developed by Wuhan University,Analyzedthe positioning accuracy of single system and Compass/GPS integrated resolving, and discussed the capability of Compass navigation system in crustal motion monitoring. The results showed that the positioning accuracy in the east-west directionof the Compass navigation system is lower than the north-south direction (the positioning accuracy de 3 times RMS), in general, the positioning accuracyin the horizontal direction is about 1 2cm and the vertical direction is about 5 6cm. The GPS positioning accuracy in the horizontal direction is better than 1cm and the vertical direction is about 1 2cm. The accuracy of Compass/GPS integrated resolving is quite to GPS. It is worth mentioning that although Compass navigation system precision point positioning accuracy is lower than GPS, two sets of velocity fields obtained by using the Nikolaidis (2002) model to analyze the Compass and GPS time series results respectively, the results showed that the maximum difference of the two sets of velocity field in horizontal directions is 1.8mm/a. The Compass navigation system can now be used to monitor the crustal movement of the large deformation area, based on the velocity field in horizontal direction.

  7. Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

    PubMed

    Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

    2016-08-01

    The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  8. Automated novel high-accuracy miniaturized positioning system for use in analytical instrumentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siomos, Konstadinos; Kaliakatsos, John; Apostolakis, Manolis; Lianakis, John; Duenow, Peter

    1996-01-01

    The development of three-dimensional automotive devices (micro-robots) for applications in analytical instrumentation, clinical chemical diagnostics and advanced laser optics, depends strongly on the ability of such a device: firstly to be positioned with high accuracy, reliability, and automatically, by means of user friendly interface techniques; secondly to be compact; and thirdly to operate under vacuum conditions, free of most of the problems connected with conventional micropositioners using stepping-motor gear techniques. The objective of this paper is to develop and construct a mechanically compact computer-based micropositioning system for coordinated motion in the X-Y-Z directions with: (1) a positioning accuracy of less than 1 micrometer, (the accuracy of the end-position of the system is controlled by a hard/software assembly using a self-constructed optical encoder); (2) a heat-free propulsion mechanism for vacuum operation; and (3) synchronized X-Y motion.

  9. The paradox of verbal autopsy in cause of death assignment: symptom question unreliability but predictive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Serina, Peter; Riley, Ian; Hernandez, Bernardo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Praveen, Devarsetty; Tallo, Veronica; Joshi, Rohina; Sanvictores, Diozele; Stewart, Andrea; Mooney, Meghan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Lopez, Alan D

    2016-01-01

    We believe that it is important that governments understand the reliability of the mortality data which they have at their disposable to guide policy debates. In many instances, verbal autopsy (VA) will be the only source of mortality data for populations, yet little is known about how the accuracy of VA diagnoses is affected by the reliability of the symptom responses. We previously described the effect of the duration of time between death and VA administration on VA validity. In this paper, using the same dataset, we assess the relationship between the reliability and completeness of symptom responses and the reliability and accuracy of cause of death (COD) prediction. The study was based on VAs in the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) VA Validation Dataset from study sites in Bohol and Manila, Philippines and Andhra Pradesh, India. The initial interview was repeated within 3-52 months of death. Question responses were assessed for reliability and completeness between the two survey rounds. COD was predicted by Tariff Method. A sample of 4226 VAs was collected for 2113 decedents, including 1394 adults, 349 children, and 370 neonates. Mean question reliability was unexpectedly low ( kappa  = 0.447): 42.5 % of responses positive at the first interview were negative at the second, and 47.9 % of responses positive at the second had been negative at the first. Question reliability was greater for the short form of the PHMRC instrument ( kappa  = 0.497) and when analyzed at the level of the individual decedent ( kappa  = 0.610). Reliability at the level of the individual decedent was associated with COD predictive reliability and predictive accuracy. Families give coherent accounts of events leading to death but the details vary from interview to interview for the same case. Accounts are accurate but inconsistent; different subsets of symptoms are identified on each occasion. However, there are sufficient accurate and consistent

  10. Prediction Accuracy: The Role of Feedback in 6th Graders' Recall Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Harthy, Ibrahim S.

    2016-01-01

    The current study focused on the role of feedback on students' prediction accuracy (calibration). This phenomenon has been widely studied, but questions remain about how best to improve it. In the current investigation, fifty-seven students from sixth grade were randomly assigned to control and experimental groups. Thirty pictures were chosen from…

  11. Posterior Predictive Checks for Conditional Independence between Response Time and Accuracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolsinova, Maria; Tijmstra, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    Conditional independence (CI) between response time and response accuracy is a fundamental assumption of many joint models for time and accuracy used in educational measurement. In this study, posterior predictive checks (PPCs) are proposed for testing this assumption. These PPCs are based on three discrepancy measures reflecting different…

  12. Classical fluoroscopy criteria poorly predict right ventricular lead septal positioning by comparison with echocardiography.

    PubMed

    Squara, Fabien; Scarlatti, Didier; Riccini, Philippe; Garret, Gauthier; Moceri, Pamela; Ferrari, Emile

    2018-03-13

    Fluoroscopic criteria have been described for the documentation of septal right ventricular (RV) lead positioning, but their accuracy remains questioned. Consecutive patients undergoing pacemaker or defibrillator implantation were prospectively included. RV lead was positioned using postero-anterior and left anterior oblique 40° incidences, and right anterior oblique 30° to rule out coronary sinus positioning when suspected. RV lead positioning using fluoroscopy was compared to true RV lead positioning as assessed by transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). Precise anatomical localizations were determined with both modalities; then, RV lead positioning was ultimately dichotomized into two simple clinically relevant categories: RV septal or RV free wall. Accuracy of fluoroscopy for RV lead positioning was then assessed by comparison with TTE. We included 100 patients. On TTE, 66/100 had a septal RV lead and 34/100 had a free wall RV lead. Fluoroscopy had moderate agreement with TTE for precise anatomical localization of RV lead (k = 0.53), and poor agreement for septal/free wall localization (k = 0.36). For predicting septal RV lead positioning, classical fluoroscopy criteria had a high sensitivity (95.5%; 63/66 patients having a septal RV lead on TTE were correctly identified by fluoroscopy) but a very low specificity (35.3%; only 12/34 patients having a free wall RV lead on TTE were correctly identified by fluoroscopy). Classical fluoroscopy criteria have a poor accuracy for identifying RV free wall leads, which are most of the time misclassified as septal. This raises important concerns about the efficacy and safety of RV lead positioning using classical fluoroscopy criteria.

  13. Position Accuracy Analysis of a Robust Vision-Based Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaglione, S.; Del Pizzo, S.; Troisi, S.; Angrisano, A.

    2018-05-01

    Using images to determine camera position and attitude is a consolidated method, very widespread for application like UAV navigation. In harsh environment, where GNSS could be degraded or denied, image-based positioning could represent a possible candidate for an integrated or alternative system. In this paper, such method is investigated using a system based on single camera and 3D maps. A robust estimation method is proposed in order to limit the effect of blunders or noisy measurements on position solution. The proposed approach is tested using images collected in an urban canyon, where GNSS positioning is very unaccurate. A previous photogrammetry survey has been performed to build the 3D model of tested area. The position accuracy analysis is performed and the effect of the robust method proposed is validated.

  14. High accuracy position method based on computer vision and error analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shihao; Shi, Zhongke

    2003-09-01

    The study of high accuracy position system is becoming the hotspot in the field of autocontrol. And positioning is one of the most researched tasks in vision system. So we decide to solve the object locating by using the image processing method. This paper describes a new method of high accuracy positioning method through vision system. In the proposed method, an edge-detection filter is designed for a certain running condition. Here, the filter contains two mainly parts: one is image-processing module, this module is to implement edge detection, it contains of multi-level threshold self-adapting segmentation, edge-detection and edge filter; the other one is object-locating module, it is to point out the location of each object in high accurate, and it is made up of medium-filtering and curve-fitting. This paper gives some analysis error for the method to prove the feasibility of vision in position detecting. Finally, to verify the availability of the method, an example of positioning worktable, which is using the proposed method, is given at the end of the paper. Results show that the method can accurately detect the position of measured object and identify object attitude.

  15. Analysis of RDSS positioning accuracy based on RNSS wide area differential technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Nan; Su, RanRan; Zhou, JianHua; Hu, XiaoGong; Gong, XiuQiang; Liu, Li; He, Feng; Guo, Rui; Ren, Hui; Hu, GuangMing; Zhang, Lei

    2013-10-01

    The BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) provides Radio Navigation Service System (RNSS) as well as Radio Determination Service System (RDSS). RDSS users can obtain positioning by responding the Master Control Center (MCC) inquiries to signal transmitted via GEO satellite transponder. The positioning result can be calculated with elevation constraint by MCC. The primary error sources affecting the RDSS positioning accuracy are the RDSS signal transceiver delay, atmospheric trans-mission delay and GEO satellite position error. During GEO orbit maneuver, poor orbit forecast accuracy significantly impacts RDSS services. A real-time 3-D orbital correction method based on wide-area differential technique is raised to correct the orbital error. Results from the observation shows that the method can successfully improve positioning precision during orbital maneuver, independent from the RDSS reference station. This improvement can reach 50% in maximum. Accurate calibration of the RDSS signal transceiver delay precision and digital elevation map may have a critical role in high precise RDSS positioning services.

  16. Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

    2000-01-01

    The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an

  17. Assessing the accuracy of predictive models for numerical data: Not r nor r2, why not? Then what?

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Assessing the accuracy of predictive models is critical because predictive models have been increasingly used across various disciplines and predictive accuracy determines the quality of resultant predictions. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination (r2) are among the most widely used measures for assessing predictive models for numerical data, although they are argued to be biased, insufficient and misleading. In this study, geometrical graphs were used to illustrate what were used in the calculation of r and r2 and simulations were used to demonstrate the behaviour of r and r2 and to compare three accuracy measures under various scenarios. Relevant confusions about r and r2, has been clarified. The calculation of r and r2 is not based on the differences between the predicted and observed values. The existing error measures suffer various limitations and are unable to tell the accuracy. Variance explained by predictive models based on cross-validation (VEcv) is free of these limitations and is a reliable accuracy measure. Legates and McCabe’s efficiency (E1) is also an alternative accuracy measure. The r and r2 do not measure the accuracy and are incorrect accuracy measures. The existing error measures suffer limitations. VEcv and E1 are recommended for assessing the accuracy. The applications of these accuracy measures would encourage accuracy-improved predictive models to be developed to generate predictions for evidence-informed decision-making. PMID:28837692

  18. Predictive Accuracy of Exercise Stress Testing the Healthy Adult.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamont, Linda S.

    1981-01-01

    Exercise stress testing provides information on the aerobic capacity, heart rate, and blood pressure responses to graded exercises of a healthy adult. The reliability of exercise tests as a diagnostic procedure is discussed in relation to sensitivity and specificity and predictive accuracy. (JN)

  19. Accuracy of taxonomy prediction for 16S rRNA and fungal ITS sequences

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    Prediction of taxonomy for marker gene sequences such as 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) is a fundamental task in microbiology. Most experimentally observed sequences are diverged from reference sequences of authoritatively named organisms, creating a challenge for prediction methods. I assessed the accuracy of several algorithms using cross-validation by identity, a new benchmark strategy which explicitly models the variation in distances between query sequences and the closest entry in a reference database. When the accuracy of genus predictions was averaged over a representative range of identities with the reference database (100%, 99%, 97%, 95% and 90%), all tested methods had ≤50% accuracy on the currently-popular V4 region of 16S rRNA. Accuracy was found to fall rapidly with identity; for example, better methods were found to have V4 genus prediction accuracy of ∼100% at 100% identity but ∼50% at 97% identity. The relationship between identity and taxonomy was quantified as the probability that a rank is the lowest shared by a pair of sequences with a given pair-wise identity. With the V4 region, 95% identity was found to be a twilight zone where taxonomy is highly ambiguous because the probabilities that the lowest shared rank between pairs of sequences is genus, family, order or class are approximately equal. PMID:29682424

  20. Diagnostic accuracy of APRI and FIB-4 for predicting hepatitis B virus-related liver fibrosis accompanied with hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Guangqin; Zhu, Feng; Wang, Min; Zhang, Hang; Ye, Dawei; Yang, Jiayin; Jiang, Li; Liu, Chang; Yan, Lunan; Qin, Renyi

    2016-10-01

    Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and the fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4) are the two most focused non-invasive models to assess liver fibrosis. We aimed to examine the validity of these two models for predicting hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver fibrosis accompanied with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We enrolled HBV-infected patients with liver cancer who had received hepatectomy. The accuracy of APRI and FIB-4 for diagnosing liver fibrosis was assessed based on their sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic efficiency, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), kappa (κ) value and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Finally 2176 patients were included, with 1682 retrospective subjects and 494 prospective subjects. APRI (rs=0.310) and FIB-4 (rs=0.278) were positively correlated with liver fibrosis. And χ(2) analysis demonstrated that APRI and FIB-4 values correlated with different levels of liver fibrosis with all P values less than 0.01. The AUC values for APRI and FIB-4 were 0.685 and 0.626 (P=0.73) for predicting significant fibrosis, 0.681 and 0.648 (P=0.81) for differentiation of advanced fibrosis and 0.676 and 0.652 (P=0.77) for diagnosing cirrhosis. APRI and FIB-4 correlate with liver fibrosis. However these two models have low accuracy for predicting HBV-related liver fibrosis in HCC patients. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Validity, accuracy, and predictive value of urinary tract infection signs and symptoms in individuals with spinal cord injury on intermittent catheterization.

    PubMed

    Massa, Luiz M; Hoffman, Jeanne M; Cardenas, Diana D

    2009-01-01

    To determine the validity, accuracy, and predictive value of the signs and symptoms of urinary tract infection (UTI) for individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) using intermittent catheterization (IC) and the accuracy of individuals with SCI on IC at predicting their own UTI. Prospective cohort based on data from the first 3 months of a 1-year randomized controlled trial to evaluate UTI prevention effectiveness of hydrophilic and standard catheters. Fifty-six community-based individuals on IC. Presence of UTI as defined as bacteriuria with a colony count of at least 10(5) colony-forming units/mL and at least 1 sign or symptom of UTI. Analysis of monthly urine culture and urinalysis data combined with analysis of monthly data collected using a questionnaire that asked subjects to self-report on UTI signs and symptoms and whether or not they felt they had a UTI. Overall, "cloudy urine" had the highest accuracy (83.1%), and "leukocytes in the urine" had the highest sensitivity (82.8%). The highest specificity was for "fever" (99.0%); however, it had a very low sensitivity (6.9%). Subjects were able to predict their own UTI with an accuracy of 66.2%, and the negative predictive value (82.8%) was substantially higher than the positive predictive value (32.6%). The UTI signs and symptoms can predict a UTI more accurately than individual subjects can by using subjective impressions of their own signs and symptoms. Subjects were better at predicting when they did not have a UTI than when they did have a UTI.

  2. Accuracy of predicting genomic breeding values for residual feed intake in Angus and Charolais beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Chen, L; Schenkel, F; Vinsky, M; Crews, D H; Li, C

    2013-10-01

    In beef cattle, phenotypic data that are difficult and/or costly to measure, such as feed efficiency, and DNA marker genotypes are usually available on a small number of animals of different breeds or populations. To achieve a maximal accuracy of genomic prediction using the phenotype and genotype data, strategies for forming a training population to predict genomic breeding values (GEBV) of the selection candidates need to be evaluated. In this study, we examined the accuracy of predicting GEBV for residual feed intake (RFI) based on 522 Angus and 395 Charolais steers genotyped on SNP with the Illumina Bovine SNP50 Beadchip for 3 training population forming strategies: within breed, across breed, and by pooling data from the 2 breeds (i.e., combined). Two other scenarios with the training and validation data split by birth year and by sire family within a breed were also investigated to assess the impact of genetic relationships on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Three statistical methods including the best linear unbiased prediction with the relationship matrix defined based on the pedigree (PBLUP), based on the SNP genotypes (GBLUP), and a Bayesian method (BayesB) were used to predict the GEBV. The results showed that the accuracy of the GEBV prediction was the highest when the prediction was within breed and when the validation population had greater genetic relationships with the training population, with a maximum of 0.58 for Angus and 0.64 for Charolais. The within-breed prediction accuracies dropped to 0.29 and 0.38, respectively, when the validation populations had a minimal pedigree link with the training population. When the training population of a different breed was used to predict the GEBV of the validation population, that is, across-breed genomic prediction, the accuracies were further reduced to 0.10 to 0.22, depending on the prediction method used. Pooling data from the 2 breeds to form the training population resulted in accuracies increased

  3. Using DNA mechanics to predict in vitro nucleosome positions and formation energies

    PubMed Central

    Morozov, Alexandre V.; Fortney, Karissa; Gaykalova, Daria A.; Studitsky, Vasily M.; Widom, Jonathan; Siggia, Eric D.

    2009-01-01

    In eukaryotic genomes, nucleosomes function to compact DNA and to regulate access to it both by simple physical occlusion and by providing the substrate for numerous covalent epigenetic tags. While competition with other DNA-binding factors and action of chromatin remodeling enzymes significantly affect nucleosome formation in vivo, nucleosome positions in vitro are determined by steric exclusion and sequence alone. We have developed a biophysical model, DNABEND, for the sequence dependence of DNA bending energies, and validated it against a collection of in vitro free energies of nucleosome formation and a set of in vitro nucleosome positions mapped at high resolution. We have also made a first ab initio prediction of nucleosomal DNA geometries, and checked its accuracy against the nucleosome crystal structure. We have used DNABEND to design both strong and weak histone- binding sequences, and measured the corresponding free energies of nucleosome formation. We find that DNABEND can successfully predict in vitro nucleosome positions and free energies, providing a physical explanation for the intrinsic sequence dependence of histone–DNA interactions. PMID:19509309

  4. Geopositioning with a quadcopter: Extracted feature locations and predicted accuracy without a priori sensor attitude information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolloff, John; Hottel, Bryant; Edwards, David; Theiss, Henry; Braun, Aaron

    2017-05-01

    This paper presents an overview of the Full Motion Video-Geopositioning Test Bed (FMV-GTB) developed to investigate algorithm performance and issues related to the registration of motion imagery and subsequent extraction of feature locations along with predicted accuracy. A case study is included corresponding to a video taken from a quadcopter. Registration of the corresponding video frames is performed without the benefit of a priori sensor attitude (pointing) information. In particular, tie points are automatically measured between adjacent frames using standard optical flow matching techniques from computer vision, an a priori estimate of sensor attitude is then computed based on supplied GPS sensor positions contained in the video metadata and a photogrammetric/search-based structure from motion algorithm, and then a Weighted Least Squares adjustment of all a priori metadata across the frames is performed. Extraction of absolute 3D feature locations, including their predicted accuracy based on the principles of rigorous error propagation, is then performed using a subset of the registered frames. Results are compared to known locations (check points) over a test site. Throughout this entire process, no external control information (e.g. surveyed points) is used other than for evaluation of solution errors and corresponding accuracy.

  5. Accuracy of tracheal aspirate gram stain in predicting Staphylococcus aureus infection in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Seligman, Renato; Seligman, Beatriz Graeff Santos; Konkewicz, Loriane; Dos Santos, Rodrigo Pires

    2015-01-01

    The Gram stain can be used to direct initial empiric antimicrobial therapy when complete culture is not available. This rapid test could prevent the initiation of inappropriate therapy and adverse outcomes. However, several studies have attempted to determine the value of the Gram stain in the diagnosis and therapy of bacterial infection in different populations of patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) with conflicting results. The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the Gram stain in predicting the existence of Staphylococcus aureus infections from cultures of patients suspected of having VAP. This prospective single-center open cohort study enrolled 399 patients from December 2005 to December 2010. Patients suspected of having VAP by ATS IDSA criteria were included. Respiratory secretion samples were collected by tracheal aspirate (TA) for standard bacterioscopic analysis by Gram stain and culture. Respiratory secretion samples collected by tracheal aspirates of 392 patients were analyzed by Gram stain and culture. When Gram-positive cocci were arranged in clusters, the sensitivity was 68.4%, specificity 97.8%, positive predictive value 88.1% and negative predictive value 92.8% for predicting the presence of Staphylococcus aureus in culture (p < 0.001). A tracheal aspirate Gram stain can be used to rule out the presence of Staphylococcus aureus in patients with a clinical diagnosis of VAP with a 92.8% Negative Predictive Value. Therefore, 7.2% of patients with Staphylococcus aureus would not be protected by an empiric treatment that limits antimicrobial coverage to Staphylococcus aureus only when Gram positive cocci in clusters are identified.

  6. Accuracy of algorithms to predict accessory pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

    PubMed

    Wren, Christopher; Vogel, Melanie; Lord, Stephen; Abrams, Dominic; Bourke, John; Rees, Philip; Rosenthal, Eric

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy in predicting pathway location in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome for each of seven published algorithms. ECGs from 100 consecutive children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome undergoing electrophysiological study were analysed by six investigators using seven published algorithms, six of which had been developed in adult patients. Accuracy and concordance of predictions were adjusted for the number of pathway locations. Accessory pathways were left-sided in 49, septal in 20 and right-sided in 31 children. Overall accuracy of prediction was 30-49% for the exact location and 61-68% including adjacent locations. Concordance between investigators varied between 41% and 86%. No algorithm was better at predicting septal pathways (accuracy 5-35%, improving to 40-78% including adjacent locations), but one was significantly worse. Predictive accuracy was 24-53% for the exact location of right-sided pathways (50-71% including adjacent locations) and 32-55% for the exact location of left-sided pathways (58-73% including adjacent locations). All algorithms were less accurate in our hands than in other authors' own assessment. None performed well in identifying midseptal or right anteroseptal accessory pathway locations.

  7. Probability of criminal acts of violence: a test of jury predictive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Reidy, Thomas J; Sorensen, Jon R; Cunningham, Mark D

    2013-01-01

    The ability of capital juries to accurately predict future prison violence at the sentencing phase of aggravated murder trials was examined through retrospective review of the disciplinary records of 115 male inmates sentenced to either life (n = 65) or death (n = 50) in Oregon from 1985 through 2008, with a mean post-conviction time at risk of 15.3 years. Violent prison behavior was completely unrelated to predictions made by capital jurors, with bidirectional accuracy simply reflecting the base rate of assaultive misconduct in the group. Rejection of the special issue predicting future violence enjoyed 90% accuracy. Conversely, predictions that future violence was probable had 90% error rates. More than 90% of the assaultive rule violations committed by these offenders resulted in no harm or only minor injuries. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Dispersal and extrapolation on the accuracy of temporal predictions from distribution models for the Darwin's frog.

    PubMed

    Uribe-Rivera, David E; Soto-Azat, Claudio; Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Bizama, Gustavo; Simonetti, Javier A; Pliscoff, Patricio

    2017-07-01

    Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity; the development of models that reliably predict its effects on species distributions is a priority for conservation biogeography. Two of the main issues for accurate temporal predictions from Species Distribution Models (SDM) are model extrapolation and unrealistic dispersal scenarios. We assessed the consequences of these issues on the accuracy of climate-driven SDM predictions for the dispersal-limited Darwin's frog Rhinoderma darwinii in South America. We calibrated models using historical data (1950-1975) and projected them across 40 yr to predict distribution under current climatic conditions, assessing predictive accuracy through the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS), contrasting binary model predictions against temporal-independent validation data set (i.e., current presences/absences). To assess the effects of incorporating dispersal processes we compared the predictive accuracy of dispersal constrained models with no dispersal limited SDMs; and to assess the effects of model extrapolation on the predictive accuracy of SDMs, we compared this between extrapolated and no extrapolated areas. The incorporation of dispersal processes enhanced predictive accuracy, mainly due to a decrease in the false presence rate of model predictions, which is consistent with discrimination of suitable but inaccessible habitat. This also had consequences on range size changes over time, which is the most used proxy for extinction risk from climate change. The area of current climatic conditions that was absent in the baseline conditions (i.e., extrapolated areas) represents 39% of the study area, leading to a significant decrease in predictive accuracy of model predictions for those areas. Our results highlight (1) incorporating dispersal processes can improve predictive accuracy of temporal transference of SDMs and reduce uncertainties of extinction risk assessments from global change; (2) as

  9. Effect of genetic architecture on the prediction accuracy of quantitative traits in samples of unrelated individuals.

    PubMed

    Morgante, Fabio; Huang, Wen; Maltecca, Christian; Mackay, Trudy F C

    2018-06-01

    Predicting complex phenotypes from genomic data is a fundamental aim of animal and plant breeding, where we wish to predict genetic merits of selection candidates; and of human genetics, where we wish to predict disease risk. While genomic prediction models work well with populations of related individuals and high linkage disequilibrium (LD) (e.g., livestock), comparable models perform poorly for populations of unrelated individuals and low LD (e.g., humans). We hypothesized that low prediction accuracies in the latter situation may occur when the genetics architecture of the trait departs from the infinitesimal and additive architecture assumed by most prediction models. We used simulated data for 10,000 lines based on sequence data from a population of unrelated, inbred Drosophila melanogaster lines to evaluate this hypothesis. We show that, even in very simplified scenarios meant as a stress test of the commonly used Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (G-BLUP) method, using all common variants yields low prediction accuracy regardless of the trait genetic architecture. However, prediction accuracy increases when predictions are informed by the genetic architecture inferred from mapping the top variants affecting main effects and interactions in the training data, provided there is sufficient power for mapping. When the true genetic architecture is largely or partially due to epistatic interactions, the additive model may not perform well, while models that account explicitly for interactions generally increase prediction accuracy. Our results indicate that accounting for genetic architecture can improve prediction accuracy for quantitative traits.

  10. Variation of Static-PPP Positioning Accuracy Using GPS-Single Frequency Observations (Aswan, Egypt)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farah, Ashraf

    2017-06-01

    Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is a technique used for position computation with a high accuracy using only one GNSS receiver. It depends on highly accurate satellite position and clock data rather than broadcast ephemeries. PPP precision varies based on positioning technique (static or kinematic), observations type (single or dual frequency) and the duration of collected observations. PPP-(dual frequency receivers) offers comparable accuracy to differential GPS. PPP-single frequency receivers has many applications such as infrastructure, hydrography and precision agriculture. PPP using low cost GPS single-frequency receivers is an area of great interest for millions of users in developing countries such as Egypt. This research presents a study for the variability of single frequency static GPS-PPP precision based on different observation durations.

  11. Influence of the quality of intraoperative fluoroscopic images on the spatial positioning accuracy of a CAOS system.

    PubMed

    Wang, Junqiang; Wang, Yu; Zhu, Gang; Chen, Xiangqian; Zhao, Xiangrui; Qiao, Huiting; Fan, Yubo

    2018-06-01

    Spatial positioning accuracy is a key issue in a computer-assisted orthopaedic surgery (CAOS) system. Since intraoperative fluoroscopic images are one of the most important input data to the CAOS system, the quality of these images should have a significant influence on the accuracy of the CAOS system. But the regularities and mechanism of the influence of the quality of intraoperative images on the accuracy of a CAOS system have yet to be studied. Two typical spatial positioning methods - a C-arm calibration-based method and a bi-planar positioning method - are used to study the influence of different image quality parameters, such as resolution, distortion, contrast and signal-to-noise ratio, on positioning accuracy. The error propagation rules of image error in different spatial positioning methods are analyzed by the Monte Carlo method. Correlation analysis showed that resolution and distortion had a significant influence on spatial positioning accuracy. In addition the C-arm calibration-based method was more sensitive to image distortion, while the bi-planar positioning method was more susceptible to image resolution. The image contrast and signal-to-noise ratio have no significant influence on the spatial positioning accuracy. The result of Monte Carlo analysis proved that generally the bi-planar positioning method was more sensitive to image quality than the C-arm calibration-based method. The quality of intraoperative fluoroscopic images is a key issue in the spatial positioning accuracy of a CAOS system. Although the 2 typical positioning methods have very similar mathematical principles, they showed different sensitivities to different image quality parameters. The result of this research may help to create a realistic standard for intraoperative fluoroscopic images for CAOS systems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Accuracy of gestalt perception of acute chest pain in predicting coronary artery disease

    PubMed Central

    das Virgens, Cláudio Marcelo Bittencourt; Lemos Jr, Laudenor; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia; Carvalhal, Manuela Campelo; Cerqueira Junior, Antônio Maurício dos Santos; Lopes, Fernanda Oliveira de Andrade; de Sá, Nicole Cruz; Suerdieck, Jéssica Gonzalez; de Souza, Thiago Menezes Barbosa; Correia, Vitor Calixto de Almeida; Sodré, Gabriella Sant'Ana; da Silva, André Barcelos; Alexandre, Felipe Kalil Beirão; Ferreira, Felipe Rodrigues Marques; Correia, Luís Cláudio Lemos

    2017-01-01

    AIM To test accuracy and reproducibility of gestalt to predict obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with acute chest pain. METHODS We studied individuals who were consecutively admitted to our Chest Pain Unit. At admission, investigators performed a standardized interview and recorded 14 chest pain features. Based on these features, a cardiologist who was blind to other clinical characteristics made unstructured judgment of CAD probability, both numerically and categorically. As the reference standard for testing the accuracy of gestalt, angiography was required to rule-in CAD, while either angiography or non-invasive test could be used to rule-out. In order to assess reproducibility, a second cardiologist did the same procedure. RESULTS In a sample of 330 patients, the prevalence of obstructive CAD was 48%. Gestalt’s numerical probability was associated with CAD, but the area under the curve of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.55-0.67) indicated low level of accuracy. Accordingly, categorical definition of typical chest pain had a sensitivity of 48% (95%CI: 40%-55%) and specificity of 66% (95%CI: 59%-73%), yielding a negligible positive likelihood ratio of 1.4 (95%CI: 0.65-2.0) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.79 (95%CI: 0.62-1.02). Agreement between the two cardiologists was poor in the numerical classification (95% limits of agreement = -71% to 51%) and categorical definition of typical pain (Kappa = 0.29; 95%CI: 0.21-0.37). CONCLUSION Clinical judgment based on a combination of chest pain features is neither accurate nor reproducible in predicting obstructive CAD in the acute setting. PMID:28400920

  13. Accuracy improvement techniques in Precise Point Positioning method using multiple GNSS constellations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasileios Psychas, Dimitrios; Delikaraoglou, Demitris

    2016-04-01

    The future Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), including modernized GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou, offer three or more signal carriers for civilian use and much more redundant observables. The additional frequencies can significantly improve the capabilities of the traditional geodetic techniques based on GPS signals at two frequencies, especially with regard to the availability, accuracy, interoperability and integrity of high-precision GNSS applications. Furthermore, highly redundant measurements can allow for robust simultaneous estimation of static or mobile user states including more parameters such as real-time tropospheric biases and more reliable ambiguity resolution estimates. This paper presents an investigation and analysis of accuracy improvement techniques in the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method using signals from the fully operational (GPS and GLONASS), as well as the emerging (Galileo and BeiDou) GNSS systems. The main aim was to determine the improvement in both the positioning accuracy achieved and the time convergence it takes to achieve geodetic-level (10 cm or less) accuracy. To this end, freely available observation data from the recent Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) of the International GNSS Service, as well as the open source program RTKLIB were used. Following a brief background of the PPP technique and the scope of MGEX, the paper outlines the various observational scenarios that were used in order to test various data processing aspects of PPP solutions with multi-frequency, multi-constellation GNSS systems. Results from the processing of multi-GNSS observation data from selected permanent MGEX stations are presented and useful conclusions and recommendations for further research are drawn. As shown, data fusion from GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou systems is becoming increasingly significant nowadays resulting in a position accuracy increase (mostly in the less favorable East direction) and a large reduction of convergence

  14. Cadastral Positioning Accuracy Improvement: a Case Study in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, N. M.; Omar, A. H.; Omar, K. M.; Abdullah, N. M.; Yatim, M. H. M.

    2016-09-01

    Cadastral map is a parcel-based information which is specifically designed to define the limitation of boundaries. In Malaysia, the cadastral map is under authority of the Department of Surveying and Mapping Malaysia (DSMM). With the growth of spatial based technology especially Geographical Information System (GIS), DSMM decided to modernize and reform its cadastral legacy datasets by generating an accurate digital based representation of cadastral parcels. These legacy databases usually are derived from paper parcel maps known as certified plan. The cadastral modernization will result in the new cadastral database no longer being based on single and static parcel paper maps, but on a global digital map. Despite the strict process of the cadastral modernization, this reform has raised unexpected queries that remain essential to be addressed. The main focus of this study is to review the issues that have been generated by this transition. The transformed cadastral database should be additionally treated to minimize inherent errors and to fit them to the new satellite based coordinate system with high positional accuracy. This review result will be applied as a foundation for investigation to study the systematic and effectiveness method for Positional Accuracy Improvement (PAI) in cadastral database modernization.

  15. Accuracy of Two Motor Assessments during the First Year of Life in Preterm Infants for Predicting Motor Outcome at Preschool Age

    PubMed Central

    Spittle, Alicia J.; Lee, Katherine J.; Spencer-Smith, Megan; Lorefice, Lucy E.; Anderson, Peter J.; Doyle, Lex W.

    2015-01-01

    Aim The primary aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) and Neuro-Sensory Motor Developmental Assessment (NSMDA) over the first year of life for predicting motor impairment at 4 years in preterm children. The secondary aims were to assess the predictive value of serial assessments over the first year and when using a combination of these two assessment tools in follow-up. Method Children born <30 weeks’ gestation were prospectively recruited and assessed at 4, 8 and 12 months’ corrected age using the AIMS and NSMDA. At 4 years’ corrected age children were assessed for cerebral palsy (CP) and motor impairment using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children 2nd-edition (MABC-2). We calculated accuracy of the AIMS and NSMDA for predicting CP and MABC-2 scores ≤15th (at-risk of motor difficulty) and ≤5th centile (significant motor difficulty) for each test (AIMS and NSMDA) at 4, 8 and 12 months, for delay on one, two or all three of the time points over the first year, and finally for delay on both tests at each time point. Results Accuracy for predicting motor impairment was good for each test at each age, although false positives were common. Motor impairment on the MABC-2 (scores ≤5th and ≤15th) was most accurately predicted by the AIMS at 4 months, whereas CP was most accurately predicted by the NSMDA at 12 months. In regards to serial assessments, the likelihood ratio for motor impairment increased with the number of delayed assessments. When combining both the NSMDA and AIMS the best accuracy was achieved at 4 months, although results were similar at 8 and 12 months. Interpretation Motor development during the first year of life in preterm infants assessed with the AIMS and NSMDA is predictive of later motor impairment at preschool age. However, false positives are common and therefore it is beneficial to follow-up children at high risk of motor impairment at more than one time point, or to use a

  16. Accuracy of Two Motor Assessments during the First Year of Life in Preterm Infants for Predicting Motor Outcome at Preschool Age.

    PubMed

    Spittle, Alicia J; Lee, Katherine J; Spencer-Smith, Megan; Lorefice, Lucy E; Anderson, Peter J; Doyle, Lex W

    2015-01-01

    The primary aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) and Neuro-Sensory Motor Developmental Assessment (NSMDA) over the first year of life for predicting motor impairment at 4 years in preterm children. The secondary aims were to assess the predictive value of serial assessments over the first year and when using a combination of these two assessment tools in follow-up. Children born <30 weeks' gestation were prospectively recruited and assessed at 4, 8 and 12 months' corrected age using the AIMS and NSMDA. At 4 years' corrected age children were assessed for cerebral palsy (CP) and motor impairment using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children 2nd-edition (MABC-2). We calculated accuracy of the AIMS and NSMDA for predicting CP and MABC-2 scores ≤15th (at-risk of motor difficulty) and ≤5th centile (significant motor difficulty) for each test (AIMS and NSMDA) at 4, 8 and 12 months, for delay on one, two or all three of the time points over the first year, and finally for delay on both tests at each time point. Accuracy for predicting motor impairment was good for each test at each age, although false positives were common. Motor impairment on the MABC-2 (scores ≤5th and ≤15th) was most accurately predicted by the AIMS at 4 months, whereas CP was most accurately predicted by the NSMDA at 12 months. In regards to serial assessments, the likelihood ratio for motor impairment increased with the number of delayed assessments. When combining both the NSMDA and AIMS the best accuracy was achieved at 4 months, although results were similar at 8 and 12 months. Motor development during the first year of life in preterm infants assessed with the AIMS and NSMDA is predictive of later motor impairment at preschool age. However, false positives are common and therefore it is beneficial to follow-up children at high risk of motor impairment at more than one time point, or to use a combination of assessment tools. ACTR

  17. High accuracy position response calibration method for a micro-channel plate ion detector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, R.; Leredde, A.; Bagdasarova, Y.; Fléchard, X.; García, A.; Müller, P.; Knecht, A.; Liénard, E.; Kossin, M.; Sternberg, M. G.; Swanson, H. E.; Zumwalt, D. W.

    2016-11-01

    We have developed a position response calibration method for a micro-channel plate (MCP) detector with a delay-line anode position readout scheme. Using an in situ calibration mask, an accuracy of 8 μm and a resolution of 85 μm (FWHM) have been achieved for MeV-scale α particles and ions with energies of ∼10 keV. At this level of accuracy, the difference between the MCP position responses to high-energy α particles and low-energy ions is significant. The improved performance of the MCP detector can find applications in many fields of AMO and nuclear physics. In our case, it helps reducing systematic uncertainties in a high-precision nuclear β-decay experiment.

  18. Improving Prediction Accuracy for WSN Data Reduction by Applying Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Correlation

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Carlos; Gomes, Danielo G.; Agoulmine, Nazim; de Souza, José Neuman

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a method based on multivariate spatial and temporal correlation to improve prediction accuracy in data reduction for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Prediction of data not sent to the sink node is a technique used to save energy in WSNs by reducing the amount of data traffic. However, it may not be very accurate. Simulations were made involving simple linear regression and multiple linear regression functions to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results show a higher correlation between gathered inputs when compared to time, which is an independent variable widely used for prediction and forecasting. Prediction accuracy is lower when simple linear regression is used, whereas multiple linear regression is the most accurate one. In addition to that, our proposal outperforms some current solutions by about 50% in humidity prediction and 21% in light prediction. To the best of our knowledge, we believe that we are probably the first to address prediction based on multivariate correlation for WSN data reduction. PMID:22346626

  19. Diagnostic accuracy of EEG changes during carotid endarterectomy in predicting perioperative strokes.

    PubMed

    Thirumala, Parthasarathy D; Thiagarajan, Karthy; Gedela, Satyanarayana; Crammond, Donald J; Balzer, Jeffrey R

    2016-03-01

    The 30 day stroke rate following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) ranges between 2-6%. Such periprocedural strokes are associated with a three-fold increased risk of mortality. Our primary aim was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of electroencephalogram (EEG) in predicting perioperative strokes through meta-analysis of existing literature. An extensive search for relevant literature was undertaken using PubMed and Web of Science databases. Studies were included after screening using predetermined criteria. Data was extracted and analyzed. Summary sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio were obtained. Subgroup analysis of studies using eight or more EEG channels was done. Perioperative stroke rate for the cohort of 8765 patients was 1.75%. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of EEG changes in predicting these strokes were 52% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43-61%) and 84% (95% CI, 81-86%) respectively. Summary estimates of the subgroup were similar. The diagnostic odds ratio was 5.85 (95% CI, 3.71-9.22). For the observed stroke rate, the positive likelihood ratio was 3.25 while the negative predictive value was 98.99%. According to these results, patients with perioperative strokes have six times greater odds of experiencing an intraoperative change in EEG during CEA. EEG monitoring was found to be highly specific in predicting perioperative strokes after CEA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessing genomic selection prediction accuracy in a dynamic barley breeding

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Genomic selection is a method to improve quantitative traits in crops and livestock by estimating breeding values of selection candidates using phenotype and genome-wide marker data sets. Prediction accuracy has been evaluated through simulation and cross-validation, however validation based on prog...

  1. Improving prediction accuracy of cooling load using EMD, PSR and RBFNN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Limin; Wen, Yuanmei; Li, Xiaohong

    2017-08-01

    To increase the accuracy for the prediction of cooling load demand, this work presents an EMD (empirical mode decomposition)-PSR (phase space reconstruction) based RBFNN (radial basis function neural networks) method. Firstly, analyzed the chaotic nature of the real cooling load demand, transformed the non-stationary cooling load historical data into several stationary intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by using EMD. Secondly, compared the RBFNN prediction accuracies of each IMFs and proposed an IMF combining scheme that is combine the lower-frequency components (called IMF4-IMF6 combined) while keep the higher frequency component (IMF1, IMF2, IMF3) and the residual unchanged. Thirdly, reconstruct phase space for each combined components separately, process the highest frequency component (IMF1) by differential method and predict with RBFNN in the reconstructed phase spaces. Real cooling load data of a centralized ice storage cooling systems in Guangzhou are used for simulation. The results show that the proposed hybrid method outperforms the traditional methods.

  2. Investigation of practical and theoretical accuracy of wireless indoor-positioning system UBISENSE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wozniak, Marek; Odziemczyk, Waldemar; Nagorski, Kamil

    2013-04-01

    The development of Real Time Locating Systems has become an important add-on to many existing location aware systems. While Global Navigation Satelite System has solved most of the outdoor problems, it fails to repeat this success indoors. Wireless indoor positioning systems have become very popular in recent years. One of them is UBISENSE system. This system requires to carry an identity tag that is detected by sensors, which typically use triangulation to determine location. This paper presents the results of the investigation of accuracy of tag position using precise geodetic measurements and geometric analysis. Experimental measurements were carried out on the field polygon using precise tacheometer TCRP 1201+ and complete equipment of Ubisense. Results of experimental measurements were analyzed and presented graphically using Surfer 8. The paper presents the results of the investigation the teoretical and practical positioning accuracy according to the various working conditions.

  3. Prediction of Ras-effector interactions using position energy matrices.

    PubMed

    Kiel, Christina; Serrano, Luis

    2007-09-01

    One of the more challenging problems in biology is to determine the cellular protein interaction network. Progress has been made to predict protein-protein interactions based on structural information, assuming that structural similar proteins interact in a similar way. In a previous publication, we have determined a genome-wide Ras-effector interaction network based on homology models, with a high accuracy of predicting binding and non-binding domains. However, for a prediction on a genome-wide scale, homology modelling is a time-consuming process. Therefore, we here successfully developed a faster method using position energy matrices, where based on different Ras-effector X-ray template structures, all amino acids in the effector binding domain are sequentially mutated to all other amino acid residues and the effect on binding energy is calculated. Those pre-calculated matrices can then be used to score for binding any Ras or effector sequences. Based on position energy matrices, the sequences of putative Ras-binding domains can be scanned quickly to calculate an energy sum value. By calibrating energy sum values using quantitative experimental binding data, thresholds can be defined and thus non-binding domains can be excluded quickly. Sequences which have energy sum values above this threshold are considered to be potential binding domains, and could be further analysed using homology modelling. This prediction method could be applied to other protein families sharing conserved interaction types, in order to determine in a fast way large scale cellular protein interaction networks. Thus, it could have an important impact on future in silico structural genomics approaches, in particular with regard to increasing structural proteomics efforts, aiming to determine all possible domain folds and interaction types. All matrices are deposited in the ADAN database (http://adan-embl.ibmc.umh.es/). Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  4. Metamemory prediction accuracy for simple prospective and retrospective memory tasks in 5-year-old children.

    PubMed

    Kvavilashvili, Lia; Ford, Ruth M

    2014-11-01

    It is well documented that young children greatly overestimate their performance on tests of retrospective memory (RM), but the current investigation is the first to examine children's prediction accuracy for prospective memory (PM). Three studies were conducted, each testing a different group of 5-year-olds. In Study 1 (N=46), participants were asked to predict their success in a simple event-based PM task (remembering to convey a message to a toy mole if they encountered a particular picture during a picture-naming activity). Before naming the pictures, children listened to either a reminder story or a neutral story. Results showed that children were highly accurate in their PM predictions (78% accuracy) and that the reminder story appeared to benefit PM only in children who predicted they would remember the PM response. In Study 2 (N=80), children showed high PM prediction accuracy (69%) regardless of whether the cue was specific or general and despite typical overoptimism regarding their performance on a 10-item RM task using item-by-item prediction. Study 3 (N=35) showed that children were prone to overestimate RM even when asked about their ability to recall a single item-the mole's unusual name. In light of these findings, we consider possible reasons for children's impressive PM prediction accuracy, including the potential involvement of future thinking in performance predictions and PM. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting Likelihood of Having Four or More Positive Nodes in Patient With Sentinel Lymph Node-Positive Breast Cancer: A Nomogram Validation Study

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Unal, Bulent; Gur, Akif Serhat; Beriwal, Sushil

    2009-11-15

    Purpose: Katz suggested a nomogram for predicting having four or more positive nodes in sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer patients. The findings from this formula might influence adjuvant radiotherapy decisions. Our goal was to validate the accuracy of the Katz nomogram. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the records of 309 patients with breast cancer who had undergone completion axillary lymph node dissection. The factors associated with the likelihood of having four or more positive axillary nodes were evaluated in patients with one to three positive SLNs. The nomogram developed by Katz was applied to our data set. The areamore » under the curve of the corresponding receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated for the nomogram. Results: Of the 309 patients, 80 (25.9%) had four or more positive axillary lymph nodes. On multivariate analysis, the number of positive SLNs (p < .0001), overall metastasis size (p = .019), primary tumor size (p = .0001), and extracapsular extension (p = .01) were significant factors predicting for four or more positive nodes. For patients with <5% probability, 90.3% had fewer than four positive nodes and 9.7% had four or more positive nodes. The negative predictive value was 91.7%, and sensitivity was 80%. The nomogram was accurate and discriminating (area under the curve, .801). Conclusion: The probability of four or more involved nodes is significantly greater in patients who have an increased number of positive SLNs, increased overall metastasis size, increased tumor size, and extracapsular extension. The Katz nomogram was validated in our patients. This nomogram will be helpful to clinicians making adjuvant treatment recommendations to their patients.« less

  6. Improving the accuracy of protein stability predictions with multistate design using a variety of backbone ensembles.

    PubMed

    Davey, James A; Chica, Roberto A

    2014-05-01

    Multistate computational protein design (MSD) with backbone ensembles approximating conformational flexibility can predict higher quality sequences than single-state design with a single fixed backbone. However, it is currently unclear what characteristics of backbone ensembles are required for the accurate prediction of protein sequence stability. In this study, we aimed to improve the accuracy of protein stability predictions made with MSD by using a variety of backbone ensembles to recapitulate the experimentally measured stability of 85 Streptococcal protein G domain β1 sequences. Ensembles tested here include an NMR ensemble as well as those generated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, by Backrub motions, and by PertMin, a new method that we developed involving the perturbation of atomic coordinates followed by energy minimization. MSD with the PertMin ensembles resulted in the most accurate predictions by providing the highest number of stable sequences in the top 25, and by correctly binning sequences as stable or unstable with the highest success rate (≈90%) and the lowest number of false positives. The performance of PertMin ensembles is due to the fact that their members closely resemble the input crystal structure and have low potential energy. Conversely, the NMR ensemble as well as those generated by MD simulations at 500 or 1000 K reduced prediction accuracy due to their low structural similarity to the crystal structure. The ensembles tested herein thus represent on- or off-target models of the native protein fold and could be used in future studies to design for desired properties other than stability. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Accuracy of genomic prediction using deregressed breeding values estimated from purebred and crossbred offspring phenotypes in pigs.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, A M; Bastiaansen, J W M; Lopes, M S; Veroneze, R; Groenen, M A M; de Koning, D-J

    2015-07-01

    Genomic selection is applied to dairy cattle breeding to improve the genetic progress of purebred (PB) animals, whereas in pigs and poultry the target is a crossbred (CB) animal for which a different strategy appears to be needed. The source of information used to estimate the breeding values, i.e., using phenotypes of CB or PB animals, may affect the accuracy of prediction. The objective of our study was to assess the direct genomic value (DGV) accuracy of CB and PB pigs using different sources of phenotypic information. Data used were from 3 populations: 2,078 Dutch Landrace-based, 2,301 Large White-based, and 497 crossbreds from an F1 cross between the 2 lines. Two female reproduction traits were analyzed: gestation length (GLE) and total number of piglets born (TNB). Phenotypes used in the analyses originated from offspring of genotyped individuals. Phenotypes collected on CB and PB animals were analyzed as separate traits using a single-trait model. Breeding values were estimated separately for each trait in a pedigree BLUP analysis and subsequently deregressed. Deregressed EBV for each trait originating from different sources (CB or PB offspring) were used to study the accuracy of genomic prediction. Accuracy of prediction was computed as the correlation between DGV and the DEBV of the validation population. Accuracy of prediction within PB populations ranged from 0.43 to 0.62 across GLE and TNB. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with one PB population in the training set ranged from 0.12 to 0.28, with the exception of using the CB offspring phenotype of the Dutch Landrace that resulted in an accuracy estimate around 0 for both traits. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with both parental PB populations in the training set ranged from 0.17 to 0.30. We conclude that prediction within population and trait had good predictive ability regardless of the trait being the PB or CB performance, whereas using PB population(s) to predict

  8. Predicting one repetition maximum equations accuracy in paralympic rowers with motor disabilities.

    PubMed

    Schwingel, Paulo A; Porto, Yuri C; Dias, Marcelo C M; Moreira, Mônica M; Zoppi, Cláudio C

    2009-05-01

    Predicting one repetition maximum equations accuracy in paralympic rowers Resistance training intensity is prescribed using percentiles of the maximum strength, defined as the maximum tension generated for a muscle or muscular group. This value is found through the application of the one maximal repetition (1RM) test. One maximal repetition test demands time and still is not appropriate for some populations because of the risk it offers. In recent years, the prediction of maximal strength, through predicting equations, has been used to prevent the inconveniences of the 1RM test. The purpose of this study was to verify the accuracy of 12 1RM predicting equations for disabled rowers. Nine male paralympic rowers (7 one-leg amputated rowers and 2 cerebral paralyzed rowers; age, 30 +/- 7.9 years; height, 175.1 +/- 5.9 cm; weight, 69 +/- 13.6 kg) performed 1RM test for lying T-bar row and flat barbell bench press exercises to determine upper-body strength and leg press exercise to determine lower-body strength. One maximal repetition test was performed, and based on submaximal repetitions loads, several linear and exponential equations models were tested with regard of their accuracy. We did not find statistical differences for lying T-bar row and bench press exercises between measured and predicted 1RM values (p = 0.84 and 0.23 for lying T-bar row and flat barbell bench press, respectively); however, leg press exercise reached a high significant difference between measured and predicted values (p < 0.01). In conclusion, rowers with motor disabilities tolerate 1RM testing procedures, and predicting 1RM equations are accurate for bench press and lying T-bar row, but not for leg press, in this kind of athlete.

  9. Influence of Pedometer Position on Pedometer Accuracy at Various Walking Speeds: A Comparative Study

    PubMed Central

    Lovis, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Background Demographic growth in conjunction with the rise of chronic diseases is increasing the pressure on health care systems in most OECD countries. Physical activity is known to be an essential factor in improving or maintaining good health. Walking is especially recommended, as it is an activity that can easily be performed by most people without constraints. Pedometers have been extensively used as an incentive to motivate people to become more active. However, a recognized problem with these devices is their diminishing accuracy associated with decreased walking speed. The arrival on the consumer market of new devices, worn indifferently either at the waist, wrist, or as a necklace, gives rise to new questions regarding their accuracy at these different positions. Objective Our objective was to assess the performance of 4 pedometers (iHealth activity monitor, Withings Pulse O2, Misfit Shine, and Garmin vívofit) and compare their accuracy according to their position worn, and at various walking speeds. Methods We conducted this study in a controlled environment with 21 healthy adults required to walk 100 m at 3 different paces (0.4 m/s, 0.6 m/s, and 0.8 m/s) regulated by means of a string attached between their legs at the level of their ankles and a metronome ticking the cadence. To obtain baseline values, we asked the participants to walk 200 m at their own pace. Results A decrease of accuracy was positively correlated with reduced speed for all pedometers (12% mean error at self-selected pace, 27% mean error at 0.8 m/s, 52% mean error at 0.6 m/s, and 76% mean error at 0.4 m/s). Although the position of the pedometer on the person did not significantly influence its accuracy, some interesting tendencies can be highlighted in 2 settings: (1) positioning the pedometer at the waist at a speed greater than 0.8 m/s or as a necklace at preferred speed tended to produce lower mean errors than at the wrist position; and (2) at a slow speed (0.4 m/s), pedometers

  10. Knowing Loved Ones’ End-of-Life Health Care Wishes: Attachment Security Predicts Caregivers’ Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Turan, Bulent; Goldstein, Mary K.; Garber, Alan M.; Carstensen, Laura L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective At times caregivers make life-and-death decisions for loved ones. Yet very little is known about the factors that make caregivers more or less accurate as surrogate decision makers for their loved ones. Previous research suggests that in low stress situations, individuals with high attachment-related anxiety are attentive to their relationship partners’ wishes and concerns, but get overwhelmed by stressful situations. Individuals with high attachment-related avoidance are likely to avoid intimacy and stressful situations altogether. We hypothesized that both of these insecure attachment patterns limit surrogates’ ability to process distressing information and should therefore be associated with lower accuracy in the stressful task of predicting their loved ones’ end-of-life health care wishes. Methods Older patients visiting a medical clinic stated their preferences toward end-of-life health care in different health contexts and surrogate decision makers independently predicted those preferences. For comparison purposes, surrogates also predicted patients’ perceptions of everyday living conditions so that surrogates’ accuracy of their loved ones’ perceptions in non-stressful situations could be assessed. Results Surrogates high on either type of insecure attachment dimension were less accurate in predicting their loved ones’ end-of-life health care wishes. Interestingly, even though surrogates’ attachment-related anxiety was associated with lower accuracy of end-of-life health care wishes of patients, it was associated with higher accuracy in the non-stressful task of predicting their everyday living conditions. Conclusions Attachment orientation plays an important role in accuracy about loved ones’ end-of-life health care wishes. Interventions may target emotion regulation strategies associated with insecure attachment orientations. PMID:22081941

  11. Accuracy and biases in newlyweds' perceptions of each other: not mutually exclusive but mutually beneficial.

    PubMed

    Luo, Shanhong; Snider, Anthony G

    2009-11-01

    There has been a long-standing debate about whether having accurate self-perceptions or holding positive illusions of self is more adaptive. This debate has recently expanded to consider the role of accuracy and bias of partner perceptions in romantic relationships. In the present study, we hypothesized that because accuracy, positivity bias, and similarity bias are likely to serve distinct functions in relationships, they should all make independent contributions to the prediction of marital satisfaction. In a sample of 288 newlywed couples, we tested this hypothesis by simultaneously modeling the actor effects and partner effects of accuracy, positivity bias, and similarity bias in predicting husbands' and wives' satisfaction. Findings across several perceptual domains suggest that all three perceptual indices independently predicted the perceiver's satisfaction. Accuracy and similarity bias, but not positivity bias, made unique contributions to the target's satisfaction. No sex differences were found.

  12. Improving CSF biomarker accuracy in predicting prevalent and incident Alzheimer disease

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, A.M.; Williams, M.M.; Ghoshal, N.; Aeschleman, M.; Grant, E.A.; Marcus, D.S.; Mintun, M.A.; Holtzman, D.M.; Morris, J.C.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate factors, including cognitive and brain reserve, which may independently predict prevalent and incident dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) and to determine whether inclusion of identified factors increases the predictive accuracy of the CSF biomarkers Aβ42, tau, ptau181, tau/Aβ42, and ptau181/Aβ42. Methods: Logistic regression identified variables that predicted prevalent DAT when considered together with each CSF biomarker in a cross-sectional sample of 201 participants with normal cognition and 46 with DAT. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from the resulting model was compared with the AUC generated using the biomarker alone. In a second sample with normal cognition at baseline and longitudinal data available (n = 213), Cox proportional hazards models identified variables that predicted incident DAT together with each biomarker, and the models' concordance probability estimate (CPE), which was compared to the CPE generated using the biomarker alone. Results: APOE genotype including an ε4 allele, male gender, and smaller normalized whole brain volumes (nWBV) were cross-sectionally associated with DAT when considered together with every biomarker. In the longitudinal sample (mean follow-up = 3.2 years), 14 participants (6.6%) developed DAT. Older age predicted a faster time to DAT in every model, and greater education predicted a slower time in 4 of 5 models. Inclusion of ancillary variables resulted in better cross-sectional prediction of DAT for all biomarkers (p < 0.0021), and better longitudinal prediction for 4 of 5 biomarkers (p < 0.0022). Conclusions: The predictive accuracy of CSF biomarkers is improved by including age, education, and nWBV in analyses. PMID:21228296

  13. Prediction of Tubal Ectopic Pregnancy Using Offline Analysis of 3-Dimensional Transvaginal Ultrasonographic Data Sets: An Interobserver and Diagnostic Accuracy Study.

    PubMed

    Infante, Fernando; Espada Vaquero, Mercedes; Bignardi, Tommaso; Lu, Chuan; Testa, Antonia C; Fauchon, David; Epstein, Elisabeth; Leone, Francesco P G; Van den Bosch, Thierry; Martins, Wellington P; Condous, George

    2018-06-01

    To assess interobserver reproducibility in detecting tubal ectopic pregnancies by reading data sets from 3-dimensional (3D) transvaginal ultrasonography (TVUS) and comparing it with real-time 2-dimensional (2D) TVUS. Images were initially classified as showing pregnancies of unknown location or tubal ectopic pregnancies on real time 2D TVUS by an experienced sonologist, who acquired 5 3D volumes. Data sets were analyzed offline by 5 observers who had to classify each case as ectopic pregnancy or pregnancy of unknown location. The interobserver reproducibility was evaluated by the Fleiss κ statistic. The performance of each observer in predicting ectopic pregnancies was compared to that of the experienced sonologist. Women were followed until they were reclassified as follows: (1) failed pregnancy of unknown location; (2) intrauterine pregnancy; (3) ectopic pregnancy; or (4) persistent pregnancy of unknown location. Sixty-one women were included. The agreement between reading offline 3D data sets and the first real-time 2D TVUS was very good (80%-82%; κ = 0.89). The overall interobserver agreement among observers reading offline 3D data sets was moderate (κ = 0.52). The diagnostic performance of experienced observers reading offline 3D data sets had accuracy of 78.3% to 85.0%, sensitivity of 66.7% to 81.3%, specificity of 79.5% to 88.4%, positive predictive value of 57.1% to 72.2%, and negative predictive value of 87.5% to 91.3%, compared to the experienced sonologist's real-time 2D TVUS: accuracy of 94.5%, sensitivity of 94.4%, specificity of 94.5%, positive predictive value of 85.0%, and negative predictive value of 98.1%. The diagnostic accuracy of 3D TVUS by reading offline data sets for predicting ectopic pregnancies is dependent on experience. Reading only static 3D data sets without clinical information does not match the diagnostic performance of real time 2D TVUS combined with clinical information obtained during the scan. © 2017 by the American

  14. Restoration of the ASCA Source Position Accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gotthelf, E. V.; Ueda, Y.; Fujimoto, R.; Kii, T.; Yamaoka, K.

    2000-11-01

    We present a calibration of the absolute pointing accuracy of the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA) which allows us to compensate for a large error (up to 1') in the derived source coordinates. We parameterize a temperature dependent deviation of the attitude solution which is responsible for this error. By analyzing ASCA coordinates of 100 bright active galactic nuclei, we show that it is possible to reduce the uncertainty in the sky position for any given observation by a factor of 4. The revised 90% error circle radius is then 12", consistent with preflight specifications, effectively restoring the full ASCA pointing accuracy. Herein, we derive an algorithm which compensates for this attitude error and present an internet-based table to be used to correct post facto the coordinate of all ASCA observations. While the above error circle is strictly applicable to data taken with the on-board Solid-state Imaging Spectrometers (SISs), similar coordinate corrections are derived for data obtained with the Gas Imaging Spectrometers (GISs), which, however, have additional instrumental uncertainties. The 90% error circle radius for the central 20' diameter of the GIS is 24". The large reduction in the error circle area for the two instruments offers the opportunity to greatly enhance the search for X-ray counterparts at other wavelengths. This has important implications for current and future ASCA source catalogs and surveys.

  15. Method to improve accuracy of positioning object by eLoran system with applying standard Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grunin, A. P.; Kalinov, G. A.; Bolokhovtsev, A. V.; Sai, S. V.

    2018-05-01

    This article reports on a novel method to improve the accuracy of positioning an object by a low frequency hyperbolic radio navigation system like an eLoran. This method is based on the application of the standard Kalman filter. Investigations of an affection of the filter parameters and the type of the movement on accuracy of the vehicle position estimation are carried out. Evaluation of the method accuracy was investigated by separating data from the semi-empirical movement model to different types of movements.

  16. Position Accuracy Improvement by Implementing the DGNSS-CP Algorithm in Smartphones

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Donghwan; Kee, Changdon; Seo, Jiwon; Park, Byungwoon

    2016-01-01

    The position accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) modules is one of the most significant factors in determining the feasibility of new location-based services for smartphones. Considering the structure of current smartphones, it is impossible to apply the ordinary range-domain Differential GNSS (DGNSS) method. Therefore, this paper describes and applies a DGNSS-correction projection method to a commercial smartphone. First, the local line-of-sight unit vector is calculated using the elevation and azimuth angle provided in the position-related output of Android’s LocationManager, and this is transformed to Earth-centered, Earth-fixed coordinates for use. To achieve position-domain correction for satellite systems other than GPS, such as GLONASS and BeiDou, the relevant line-of-sight unit vectors are used to construct an observation matrix suitable for multiple constellations. The results of static and dynamic tests show that the standalone GNSS accuracy is improved by about 30%–60%, thereby reducing the existing error of 3–4 m to just 1 m. The proposed algorithm enables the position error to be directly corrected via software, without the need to alter the hardware and infrastructure of the smartphone. This method of implementation and the subsequent improvement in performance are expected to be highly effective to portability and cost saving. PMID:27322284

  17. Reassessment of the positive predictive value and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF: a diagnostic accuracy study in the context of community-wide screening for tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Ho, Jennifer; Nguyen, Phuong Thi Bich; Nguyen, Thu Anh; Tran, Khoa Hien; Van Nguyen, Son; Nguyen, Nhung Viet; Nguyen, Hoa Binh; Luu, Khanh Boi; Fox, Greg J; Marks, Guy B

    2016-09-01

    Community-wide screening for tuberculosis with Xpert MTB/RIF as a primary screening tool overcomes some of the limitations of conventional screening. However, concerns exist about the low positive predictive value of this test in screening settings. We did a cross-sectional assessment of this diagnostic test to directly estimate the actual positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF when used in the setting of community-wide screening for tuberculosis, and to draw an inference about the specificity of the test for tuberculosis detection. Field staff visited households in 60 randomly selected villages in Ca Mau province, Vietnam. We included people aged 15 years or older who provided written informed consent and were able to produce 0·5 mL or more of sputum, irrespective of reported symptoms. Participants were tested with Xpert MTB/RIF, then those with positive results had two further sputum samples tested for smear microscopy and culture, and underwent chest radiography at the provincial TB Health Center. The positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF was compared against two reference standards for tuberculosis diagnosis-a positive sputum culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and a positive sputum culture or a chest radiograph consistent with active pulmonary tuberculosis. We then calculated the specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculosis detection on the basis of these positive predictive values and disease prevalence in this setting. 43 435 adults consented to screening with Xpert MTB/RIF. Sputum samples of 0·5 mL or greater were collected from 23 202 participants, producing 22 673 valid results. 169 participants had positive Xpert MTB/RIF results (0·39% of those screened and 0·75% of those with valid sputum results). The positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF was 61·0% (95% CI 52·8-68·7) when compared against a positive sputum culture and 83·9% (76·8-89·2) when compared against a positive sputum culture or chest radiograph consistent with

  18. Impact of fitting dominance and additive effects on accuracy of genomic prediction of breeding values in layers.

    PubMed

    Heidaritabar, M; Wolc, A; Arango, J; Zeng, J; Settar, P; Fulton, J E; O'Sullivan, N P; Bastiaansen, J W M; Fernando, R L; Garrick, D J; Dekkers, J C M

    2016-10-01

    Most genomic prediction studies fit only additive effects in models to estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV). However, if dominance genetic effects are an important source of variation for complex traits, accounting for them may improve the accuracy of GEBV. We investigated the effect of fitting dominance and additive effects on the accuracy of GEBV for eight egg production and quality traits in a purebred line of brown layers using pedigree or genomic information (42K single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel). Phenotypes were corrected for the effect of hatch date. Additive and dominance genetic variances were estimated using genomic-based [genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP)-REML and BayesC] and pedigree-based (PBLUP-REML) methods. Breeding values were predicted using a model that included both additive and dominance effects and a model that included only additive effects. The reference population consisted of approximately 1800 animals hatched between 2004 and 2009, while approximately 300 young animals hatched in 2010 were used for validation. Accuracy of prediction was computed as the correlation between phenotypes and estimated breeding values of the validation animals divided by the square root of the estimate of heritability in the whole population. The proportion of dominance variance to total phenotypic variance ranged from 0.03 to 0.22 with PBLUP-REML across traits, from 0 to 0.03 with GBLUP-REML and from 0.01 to 0.05 with BayesC. Accuracies of GEBV ranged from 0.28 to 0.60 across traits. Inclusion of dominance effects did not improve the accuracy of GEBV, and differences in their accuracies between genomic-based methods were small (0.01-0.05), with GBLUP-REML yielding higher prediction accuracies than BayesC for egg production, egg colour and yolk weight, while BayesC yielded higher accuracies than GBLUP-REML for the other traits. In conclusion, fitting dominance effects did not impact accuracy of genomic prediction of breeding values in

  19. Improvement of CD-SEM mark position measurement accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasa, Kentaro; Fukuhara, Kazuya

    2014-04-01

    CD-SEM is now attracting attention as a tool that can accurately measure positional error of device patterns. However, the measurement accuracy can get worse due to pattern asymmetry as in the case of image based overlay (IBO) and diffraction based overlay (DBO). For IBO and DBO, a way of correcting the inaccuracy arising from measurement patterns was suggested. For CD-SEM, although a way of correcting CD bias was proposed, it has not been argued how to correct the inaccuracy arising from pattern asymmetry using CD-SEM. In this study we will propose how to quantify and correct the measurement inaccuracy affected by pattern asymmetry.

  20. Quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy for censored time-to-event data with competing risks.

    PubMed

    Wu, Cai; Li, Liang

    2018-05-15

    This paper focuses on quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy of prognostic models for time-to-event outcomes with competing events. We consider the time-dependent discrimination and calibration metrics, including the receiver operating characteristics curve and the Brier score, in the context of competing risks. To address censoring, we propose a unified nonparametric estimation framework for both discrimination and calibration measures, by weighting the censored subjects with the conditional probability of the event of interest given the observed data. The proposed method can be extended to time-dependent predictive accuracy metrics constructed from a general class of loss functions. We apply the methodology to a data set from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension to evaluate the predictive accuracy of a prognostic risk score in predicting end-stage renal disease, accounting for the competing risk of pre-end-stage renal disease death, and evaluate its numerical performance in extensive simulation studies. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Accuracy and reliability of multi-GNSS real-time precise positioning: GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou, and Galileo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xingxing; Ge, Maorong; Dai, Xiaolei; Ren, Xiaodong; Fritsche, Mathias; Wickert, Jens; Schuh, Harald

    2015-06-01

    In this contribution, we present a GPS+GLONASS+BeiDou+Galileo four-system model to fully exploit the observations of all these four navigation satellite systems for real-time precise orbit determination, clock estimation and positioning. A rigorous multi-GNSS analysis is performed to achieve the best possible consistency by processing the observations from different GNSS together in one common parameter estimation procedure. Meanwhile, an efficient multi-GNSS real-time precise positioning service system is designed and demonstrated by using the multi-GNSS Experiment, BeiDou Experimental Tracking Network, and International GNSS Service networks including stations all over the world. The statistical analysis of the 6-h predicted orbits show that the radial and cross root mean square (RMS) values are smaller than 10 cm for BeiDou and Galileo, and smaller than 5 cm for both GLONASS and GPS satellites, respectively. The RMS values of the clock differences between real-time and batch-processed solutions for GPS satellites are about 0.10 ns, while the RMS values for BeiDou, Galileo and GLONASS are 0.13, 0.13 and 0.14 ns, respectively. The addition of the BeiDou, Galileo and GLONASS systems to the standard GPS-only processing, reduces the convergence time almost by 70 %, while the positioning accuracy is improved by about 25 %. Some outliers in the GPS-only solutions vanish when multi-GNSS observations are processed simultaneous. The availability and reliability of GPS precise positioning decrease dramatically as the elevation cutoff increases. However, the accuracy of multi-GNSS precise point positioning (PPP) is hardly decreased and few centimeter are still achievable in the horizontal components even with 40 elevation cutoff. At 30 and 40 elevation cutoffs, the availability rates of GPS-only solution drop significantly to only around 70 and 40 %, respectively. However, multi-GNSS PPP can provide precise position estimates continuously (availability rate is more than 99

  2. Improving protein–protein interactions prediction accuracy using protein evolutionary information and relevance vector machine model

    PubMed Central

    An, Ji‐Yong; Meng, Fan‐Rong; Chen, Xing; Yan, Gui‐Ying; Hu, Ji‐Pu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Predicting protein–protein interactions (PPIs) is a challenging task and essential to construct the protein interaction networks, which is important for facilitating our understanding of the mechanisms of biological systems. Although a number of high‐throughput technologies have been proposed to predict PPIs, there are unavoidable shortcomings, including high cost, time intensity, and inherently high false positive rates. For these reasons, many computational methods have been proposed for predicting PPIs. However, the problem is still far from being solved. In this article, we propose a novel computational method called RVM‐BiGP that combines the relevance vector machine (RVM) model and Bi‐gram Probabilities (BiGP) for PPIs detection from protein sequences. The major improvement includes (1) Protein sequences are represented using the Bi‐gram probabilities (BiGP) feature representation on a Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM), in which the protein evolutionary information is contained; (2) For reducing the influence of noise, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of BiGP vector; (3) The powerful and robust Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) algorithm is used for classification. Five‐fold cross‐validation experiments executed on yeast and Helicobacter pylori datasets, which achieved very high accuracies of 94.57 and 90.57%, respectively. Experimental results are significantly better than previous methods. To further evaluate the proposed method, we compare it with the state‐of‐the‐art support vector machine (SVM) classifier on the yeast dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that our RVM‐BiGP method is significantly better than the SVM‐based method. In addition, we achieved 97.15% accuracy on imbalance yeast dataset, which is higher than that of balance yeast dataset. The promising experimental results show the efficiency and robust of the proposed method, which can be an automatic

  3. Improving protein-protein interactions prediction accuracy using protein evolutionary information and relevance vector machine model.

    PubMed

    An, Ji-Yong; Meng, Fan-Rong; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Yan, Gui-Ying; Hu, Ji-Pu

    2016-10-01

    Predicting protein-protein interactions (PPIs) is a challenging task and essential to construct the protein interaction networks, which is important for facilitating our understanding of the mechanisms of biological systems. Although a number of high-throughput technologies have been proposed to predict PPIs, there are unavoidable shortcomings, including high cost, time intensity, and inherently high false positive rates. For these reasons, many computational methods have been proposed for predicting PPIs. However, the problem is still far from being solved. In this article, we propose a novel computational method called RVM-BiGP that combines the relevance vector machine (RVM) model and Bi-gram Probabilities (BiGP) for PPIs detection from protein sequences. The major improvement includes (1) Protein sequences are represented using the Bi-gram probabilities (BiGP) feature representation on a Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM), in which the protein evolutionary information is contained; (2) For reducing the influence of noise, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of BiGP vector; (3) The powerful and robust Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) algorithm is used for classification. Five-fold cross-validation experiments executed on yeast and Helicobacter pylori datasets, which achieved very high accuracies of 94.57 and 90.57%, respectively. Experimental results are significantly better than previous methods. To further evaluate the proposed method, we compare it with the state-of-the-art support vector machine (SVM) classifier on the yeast dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that our RVM-BiGP method is significantly better than the SVM-based method. In addition, we achieved 97.15% accuracy on imbalance yeast dataset, which is higher than that of balance yeast dataset. The promising experimental results show the efficiency and robust of the proposed method, which can be an automatic decision support tool for future

  4. Accuracy assessment of Precise Point Positioning with multi-constellation GNSS data under ionospheric scintillation effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marques, Haroldo Antonio; Marques, Heloísa Alves Silva; Aquino, Marcio; Veettil, Sreeja Vadakke; Monico, João Francisco Galera

    2018-02-01

    GPS and GLONASS are currently the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) with full operational capacity. The integration of GPS, GLONASS and future GNSS constellations can provide better accuracy and more reliability in geodetic positioning, in particular for kinematic Precise Point Positioning (PPP), where the satellite geometry is considered a limiting factor to achieve centimeter accuracy. The satellite geometry can change suddenly in kinematic positioning in urban areas or under conditions of strong atmospheric effects such as for instance ionospheric scintillation that may degrade satellite signal quality, causing cycle slips and even loss of lock. Scintillation is caused by small scale irregularities in the ionosphere and is characterized by rapid changes in amplitude and phase of the signal, which are more severe in equatorial and high latitudes geomagnetic regions. In this work, geodetic positioning through the PPP method was evaluated with integrated GPS and GLONASS data collected in the equatorial region under varied scintillation conditions. The GNSS data were processed in kinematic PPP mode and the analyses show accuracy improvements of up to 60% under conditions of strong scintillation when using multi-constellation data instead of GPS data alone. The concepts and analyses related to the ionospheric scintillation effects, the mathematical model involved in PPP with GPS and GLONASS data integration as well as accuracy assessment with data collected under ionospheric scintillation effects are presented.

  5. Positional Accuracy of Airborne Integrated Global Positioning and Inertial Navigation Systems for Mapping in Glen Canyon, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanchez, Richard D.; Hothem, Larry D.

    2002-01-01

    High-resolution airborne and satellite image sensor systems integrated with onboard data collection based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) and inertial navigation systems (INS) may offer a quick and cost-effective way to gather accurate topographic map information without ground control or aerial triangulation. The Applanix Corporation?s Position and Orientation Solutions for Direct Georeferencing of aerial photography was used in this project to examine the positional accuracy of integrated GPS/INS for terrain mapping in Glen Canyon, Arizona. The research application in this study yielded important information on the usefulness and limits of airborne integrated GPS/INS data-capture systems for mapping.

  6. Happy but overconfident: positive affect leads to inaccurate metacomprehension.

    PubMed

    Prinz, Anja; Bergmann, Viktoria; Wittwer, Jörg

    2018-05-14

    When learning from text, it is important that learners not only comprehend the information provided but also accurately monitor and judge their comprehension, which is known as metacomprehension accuracy. To investigate the role of a learner's affective state for text comprehension and metacomprehension accuracy, we conducted an experiment with N = 103 university students in whom we induced positive, negative, or neutral affect. Positive affect resulted in poorer text comprehension than neutral affect. Positive affect also led to overconfident predictions, whereas negative and neutral affect were both associated with quite accurate predictions. Independent of affect, postdictions were rather underconfident. The results suggest that positive affect bears processing disadvantages for achieving deep comprehension and adequate prediction accuracy. Given that postdictions were more accurate, practice tests might represent an effective instructional method to help learners in a positive affective state to accurately judge their text comprehension.

  7. Friends' knowledge of youth internalizing and externalizing adjustment: accuracy, bias, and the influences of gender, grade, positive friendship quality, and self-disclosure.

    PubMed

    Swenson, Lance P; Rose, Amanda J

    2009-08-01

    Some evidence suggests that close friends may be knowledgeable of youth's psychological adjustment. However, friends are understudied as reporters of adjustment. The current study examines associations between self- and friend-reports of internalizing and externalizing adjustment in a community sample of fifth-, eighth-, and eleventh-grade youth. The study extends prior work by considering the degree to which friends' reports of youth adjustment are accurate (i.e., predicted by youths' actual adjustment) versus biased (i.e., predicted by the friend reporters' own adjustment). Findings indicated stronger bias effects than accuracy effects, but the accuracy effects were significant for both internalizing and externalizing adjustment. Additionally, friends who perceived their relationships as high in positive quality, friends in relationships high in disclosure, and girls perceived youths' internalizing symptoms most accurately. Knowledge of externalizing adjustment was not influenced by gender, grade, relationship quality, or self-disclosure. Findings suggest that friends could play an important role in prevention efforts.

  8. Emergency positioning system accuracy with infrared LEDs in high-security facilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knoch, Sierra N.; Nelson, Charles; Walker, Owens

    2017-05-01

    Instantaneous personnel location presents a challenge in Department of Defense applications where high levels of security restrict real-time tracking of crew members. During emergency situations, command and control requires immediate accountability of all personnel. Current radio frequency (RF) based indoor positioning systems can be unsuitable due to RF leakage and electromagnetic interference with sensitively calibrated machinery on variable platforms like ships, submarines and high-security facilities. Infrared light provide a possible solution to this problem. This paper proposes and evaluates an indoor line-of-sight positioning system that is comprised of IR and high-sensitivity CMOS camera receivers. In this system the movement of the LEDs is captured by the camera, uploaded and analyzed; the highest point of power is located and plotted to create a blueprint of crewmember location. Results provided evaluate accuracy as a function of both wavelength and environmental conditions. Research will further evaluate the accuracy of the LED transmitter and CMOS camera receiver system. Transmissions in both the 780 and 850nm IR are analyzed.

  9. Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

    PubMed

    Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2016-11-01

    Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

  10. Predicting the accuracy of ligand overlay methods with Random Forest models.

    PubMed

    Nandigam, Ravi K; Evans, David A; Erickson, Jon A; Kim, Sangtae; Sutherland, Jeffrey J

    2008-12-01

    The accuracy of binding mode prediction using standard molecular overlay methods (ROCS, FlexS, Phase, and FieldCompare) is studied. Previous work has shown that simple decision tree modeling can be used to improve accuracy by selection of the best overlay template. This concept is extended to the use of Random Forest (RF) modeling for template and algorithm selection. An extensive data set of 815 ligand-bound X-ray structures representing 5 gene families was used for generating ca. 70,000 overlays using four programs. RF models, trained using standard measures of ligand and protein similarity and Lipinski-related descriptors, are used for automatically selecting the reference ligand and overlay method maximizing the probability of reproducing the overlay deduced from X-ray structures (i.e., using rmsd < or = 2 A as the criteria for success). RF model scores are highly predictive of overlay accuracy, and their use in template and method selection produces correct overlays in 57% of cases for 349 overlay ligands not used for training RF models. The inclusion in the models of protein sequence similarity enables the use of templates bound to related protein structures, yielding useful results even for proteins having no available X-ray structures.

  11. An accuracy assessment of positions obtained using survey- and recreational-grade Global Positioning System receivers across a range of forest conditions within the Tanana Valley of interior Alaska

    Treesearch

    Hans-Erik Andersen; Tobey Clarkin; Ken Winterberger; Jacob Strunk

    2009-01-01

    The accuracy of recreational- and survey-grade global positioning system (GPS) receivers was evaluated across a range of forest conditions in the Tanana Valley of interior Alaska. High-accuracy check points, established using high-order instruments and closed-traverse surveying methods, were then used to evaluate the accuracy of positions acquired in different forest...

  12. Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchner, S. P.; Campbell, A. B.; Davis, D.; McMorrow, D.; Petersen, E. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Ritter, J. C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

  13. On the Accuracy of Probabilistic Bucking Load Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arbocz, Johann; Starnes, James H.; Nemeth, Michael P.

    2001-01-01

    The buckling strength of thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells is of major concern in aeronautical and space applications. The difficulty to predict the behavior of axially compressed thin-walled cylindrical shells continues to worry design engineers as we enter the third millennium. Thanks to extensive research programs in the late sixties and early seventies and the contributions of many eminent scientists, it is known that buckling strength calculations are affected by the uncertainties in the definition of the parameters of the problem such as definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, edge support conditions, and the accuracy of the engineering models and analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor. This so-called 'empirical knockdown factor gamma' usually results in overly conservative design. Recently new reliability based probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect shells have been proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach which introduces an improved 'scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a)', that is not as conservative as the traditional empirical one. In order to incorporate probabilistic methods into a High Fidelity Analysis Approach one must be able to assess the accuracy of the various steps that must be executed to complete a reliability calculation. In the present paper the effect of size of the experimental input sample on the predicted value of the scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a) calculated by the First-Order, Second-Moment Method is investigated.

  14. Teaching High-Accuracy Global Positioning System to Undergraduates Using Online Processing Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Guoquan

    2013-01-01

    High-accuracy Global Positioning System (GPS) has become an important geoscientific tool used to measure ground motions associated with plate movements, glacial movements, volcanoes, active faults, landslides, subsidence, slow earthquake events, as well as large earthquakes. Complex calculations are required in order to achieve high-precision…

  15. Children's use of decomposition strategies mediates the visuospatial memory and arithmetic accuracy relation.

    PubMed

    Foley, Alana E; Vasilyeva, Marina; Laski, Elida V

    2017-06-01

    This study examined the mediating role of children's use of decomposition strategies in the relation between visuospatial memory (VSM) and arithmetic accuracy. Children (N = 78; Age M = 9.36) completed assessments of VSM, arithmetic strategies, and arithmetic accuracy. Consistent with previous findings, VSM predicted arithmetic accuracy in children. Extending previous findings, the current study showed that the relation between VSM and arithmetic performance was mediated by the frequency of children's use of decomposition strategies. Identifying the role of arithmetic strategies in this relation has implications for increasing the math performance of children with lower VSM. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? The link between children's visuospatial working memory and arithmetic accuracy is well documented. Frequency of decomposition strategy use is positively related to children's arithmetic accuracy. Children's spatial skill positively predicts the frequency with which they use decomposition. What does this study add? Short-term visuospatial memory (VSM) positively relates to the frequency of children's decomposition use. Decomposition use mediates the relation between short-term VSM and arithmetic accuracy. Children with limited short-term VSM may struggle to use decomposition, decreasing accuracy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  16. On the accuracy and reliability of predictions by control-system theory.

    PubMed

    Bourbon, W T; Copeland, K E; Dyer, V R; Harman, W K; Mosley, B L

    1990-12-01

    In three experiments we used control-system theory (CST) to predict the results of tracking tasks on which people held a handle to keep a cursor even with a target on a computer screen. 10 people completed a total of 104 replications of the task. In each experiment, there were two conditions: in one, only the handle affected the position of the cursor; in the other, a random disturbance also affected the cursor. From a person's performance during Condition 1, we derived constants used in the CST model to predict the results of Condition 2. In two experiments, predictions occurred a few minutes before Condition 2; in one experiment, the delay was 1 yr. During a 1-min. experimental run, the positions of handle and cursor, produced by the person, were each sampled 1800 times, once every 1/30 sec. During a modeling run, the model predicted the positions of the handle and target for each of the 1800 intervals sampled in the experimental run. In 104 replications, the mean correlation between predicted and actual positions of the handle was .996; SD = .002.

  17. Accuracy of patient-specific guided glenoid baseplate positioning for reverse shoulder arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Levy, Jonathan C; Everding, Nathan G; Frankle, Mark A; Keppler, Louis J

    2014-10-01

    The accuracy of reproducing a surgical plan during shoulder arthroplasty is improved by computer assistance. Intraoperative navigation, however, is challenged by increased surgical time and additional technically difficult steps. Patient-matched instrumentation has the potential to reproduce a similar degree of accuracy without the need for additional surgical steps. The purpose of this study was to examine the accuracy of patient-specific planning and a patient-specific drill guide for glenoid baseplate placement in reverse shoulder arthroplasty. A patient-specific glenoid baseplate drill guide for reverse shoulder arthroplasty was produced for 14 cadaveric shoulders based on a plan developed by a virtual preoperative 3-dimensional planning system using thin-cut computed tomography images. Using this patient-specific guide, high-volume shoulder surgeons exposed the glenoid through a deltopectoral approach and drilled the bicortical pathway defined by the guide. The trajectory of the drill path was compared with the virtual preoperative planned position using similar thin-cut computed tomography images to define accuracy. The drill pathway defined by the patient-matched guide was found to be highly accurate when compared with the preoperative surgical plan. The translational accuracy was 1.2 ± 0.7 mm. The accuracy of inferior tilt was 1.2° ± 1.2°. The accuracy of glenoid version was 2.6° ± 1.7°. The use of patient-specific glenoid baseplate guides is highly accurate in reproducing a virtual 3-dimensional preoperative plan. This technique delivers the accuracy observed using computerized navigation without any additional surgical steps or technical challenges. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The Positioning Accuracy of BAUV Using Fusion of Data from USBL System and Movement Parameters Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Krzysztof, Naus; Aleksander, Nowak

    2016-01-01

    The article presents a study of the accuracy of estimating the position coordinates of BAUV (Biomimetic Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) by the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method. The fusion of movement parameters measurements and position coordinates fixes was applied. The movement parameters measurements are carried out by on-board navigation devices, while the position coordinates fixes are done by the USBL (Ultra Short Base Line) system. The problem of underwater positioning and the conceptual design of the BAUV navigation system constructed at the Naval Academy (Polish Naval Academy—PNA) are presented in the first part of the paper. The second part consists of description of the evaluation results of positioning accuracy, the genesis of the problem of selecting method for underwater positioning, and the mathematical description of the method of estimating the position coordinates using the EKF method by the fusion of measurements with on-board navigation and measurements obtained with the USBL system. The main part contains a description of experimental research. It consists of a simulation program of navigational parameter measurements carried out during the BAUV passage along the test section. Next, the article covers the determination of position coordinates on the basis of simulated parameters, using EKF and DR methods and the USBL system, which are then subjected to a comparative analysis of accuracy. The final part contains systemic conclusions justifying the desirability of applying the proposed fusion method of navigation parameters for the BAUV positioning. PMID:27537884

  19. The Positioning Accuracy of BAUV Using Fusion of Data from USBL System and Movement Parameters Measurements.

    PubMed

    Krzysztof, Naus; Aleksander, Nowak

    2016-08-15

    The article presents a study of the accuracy of estimating the position coordinates of BAUV (Biomimetic Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) by the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method. The fusion of movement parameters measurements and position coordinates fixes was applied. The movement parameters measurements are carried out by on-board navigation devices, while the position coordinates fixes are done by the USBL (Ultra Short Base Line) system. The problem of underwater positioning and the conceptual design of the BAUV navigation system constructed at the Naval Academy (Polish Naval Academy-PNA) are presented in the first part of the paper. The second part consists of description of the evaluation results of positioning accuracy, the genesis of the problem of selecting method for underwater positioning, and the mathematical description of the method of estimating the position coordinates using the EKF method by the fusion of measurements with on-board navigation and measurements obtained with the USBL system. The main part contains a description of experimental research. It consists of a simulation program of navigational parameter measurements carried out during the BAUV passage along the test section. Next, the article covers the determination of position coordinates on the basis of simulated parameters, using EKF and DR methods and the USBL system, which are then subjected to a comparative analysis of accuracy. The final part contains systemic conclusions justifying the desirability of applying the proposed fusion method of navigation parameters for the BAUV positioning.

  20. Thoracic injury rule out criteria and NEXUS chest in predicting the risk of traumatic intra-thoracic injuries: A diagnostic accuracy study.

    PubMed

    Safari, Saeed; Radfar, Fatemeh; Baratloo, Alireza

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of NEXUS chest and Thoracic Injury Rule out criteria (TIRC) models in predicting the risk of intra-thoracic injuries following blunt multiple trauma. In this diagnostic accuracy study, using the 2 mentioned models, blunt multiple trauma patients over the age of 15 years presenting to emergency department were screened regarding the presence of intra-thoracic injuries that are detectable via chest x-ray and screening performance characteristics of the models were compared. In this study, 3118 patients with the mean (SD) age of 37.4 (16.9) years were studied (57.4% male). Based on TIRC and NEXUS chest, respectively, 1340 (43%) and 1417 (45.4%) patients were deemed in need of radiography performance. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of TIRC were 98.95%, 62.70%, 21.19% and 99.83%. These values were 98.61%, 59.94%, 19.97% and 99.76%, for NEXUS chest, respectively. Accuracy of TIRC and NEXUS chest models were 66.04 (95% CI: 64.34-67.70) and 63.50 (95% CI: 61.78-65.19), respectively. TIRC and NEXUS chest models have proper and similar sensitivity in prediction of blunt traumatic intra-thoracic injuries that are detectable via chest x-ray. However, TIRC had a significantly higher specificity in this regard. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Effect of Traffic Position Accuracy for Conducting Safe Airport Surface Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Denise R.; Prinzel, Lawrence J., III; Bailey, Randall E.; Arthur, Jarvis J., III; Barnes, James R.

    2014-01-01

    The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept proposes many revolutionary operational concepts and technologies, such as display of traffic information and movements, airport moving maps (AMM), and proactive alerts of runway incursions and surface traffic conflicts, to deliver an overall increase in system capacity and safety. A piloted simulation study was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center to evaluate the ability to conduct safe and efficient airport surface operations while utilizing an AMM displaying traffic of various position accuracies as well as the effect of traffic position accuracy on airport conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) capability. Nominal scenarios and off-nominal conflict scenarios were conducted using 12 airline crews operating in a simulated Memphis International Airport terminal environment. The data suggest that all traffic should be shown on the airport moving map, whether qualified or unqualified, and conflict detection and resolution technologies provide significant safety benefits. Despite the presence of traffic information on the map, collisions or near collisions still occurred; when indications or alerts were generated in these same scenarios, the incidences were averted.

  2. Value of lower respiratory tract surveillance cultures to predict bacterial pathogens in ventilator-associated pneumonia: systematic review and diagnostic test accuracy meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Brusselaers, Nele; Labeau, Sonia; Vogelaers, Dirk; Blot, Stijn

    2013-03-01

    In ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), early appropriate antimicrobial therapy may be hampered by involvement of multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens. A systematic review and diagnostic test accuracy meta-analysis were performed to analyse whether lower respiratory tract surveillance cultures accurately predict the causative pathogens of subsequent VAP in adult patients. Selection and assessment of eligibility were performed by three investigators by mutual consideration. Of the 525 studies retrieved, 14 were eligible for inclusion (all in English; published since 1994), accounting for 791 VAP episodes. The following data were collected: study and population characteristics; in- and exclusion criteria; diagnostic criteria for VAP; microbiological workup of surveillance and diagnostic VAP cultures. Sub-analyses were conducted for VAP caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas spp., and Acinetobacter spp., MDR microorganisms, frequency of sampling, and consideration of all versus the most recent surveillance cultures. The meta-analysis showed a high accuracy of surveillance cultures, with pooled sensitivities up to 0.75 and specificities up to 0.92 in culture-positive VAP. The area under the curve (AUC) of the hierarchical summary receiver-operating characteristic curve demonstrates moderate accuracy (AUC: 0.90) in predicting multidrug resistance. A sampling frequency of >2/week (sensitivity 0.79; specificity 0.96) and consideration of only the most recent surveillance culture (sensitivity 0.78; specificity 0.96) are associated with a higher accuracy of prediction. This study provides evidence for the benefit of surveillance cultures in predicting MDR bacterial pathogens in VAP. However, clinical and statistical heterogeneity, limited samples sizes, and bias remain important limitations of this meta-analysis.

  3. High accuracy-nationwide differential global positioning system test and analysis : phase II report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2005-07-01

    The High Accuracy-Nationwide Differential Global Positioning System (HA-NDGPS) program focused on the development of compression and broadcast techniques to provide users over a large area wit very accurate radio navigation solutions. The goal was ac...

  4. Prediction accuracies for growth and wood attributes of interior spruce in space using genotyping-by-sequencing.

    PubMed

    Gamal El-Dien, Omnia; Ratcliffe, Blaise; Klápště, Jaroslav; Chen, Charles; Porth, Ilga; El-Kassaby, Yousry A

    2015-05-09

    Genomic selection (GS) in forestry can substantially reduce the length of breeding cycle and increase gain per unit time through early selection and greater selection intensity, particularly for traits of low heritability and late expression. Affordable next-generation sequencing technologies made it possible to genotype large numbers of trees at a reasonable cost. Genotyping-by-sequencing was used to genotype 1,126 Interior spruce trees representing 25 open-pollinated families planted over three sites in British Columbia, Canada. Four imputation algorithms were compared (mean value (MI), singular value decomposition (SVD), expectation maximization (EM), and a newly derived, family-based k-nearest neighbor (kNN-Fam)). Trees were phenotyped for several yield and wood attributes. Single- and multi-site GS prediction models were developed using the Ridge Regression Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (RR-BLUP) and the Generalized Ridge Regression (GRR) to test different assumption about trait architecture. Finally, using PCA, multi-trait GS prediction models were developed. The EM and kNN-Fam imputation methods were superior for 30 and 60% missing data, respectively. The RR-BLUP GS prediction model produced better accuracies than the GRR indicating that the genetic architecture for these traits is complex. GS prediction accuracies for multi-site were high and better than those of single-sites while multi-site predictability produced the lowest accuracies reflecting type-b genetic correlations and deemed unreliable. The incorporation of genomic information in quantitative genetics analyses produced more realistic heritability estimates as half-sib pedigree tended to inflate the additive genetic variance and subsequently both heritability and gain estimates. Principle component scores as representatives of multi-trait GS prediction models produced surprising results where negatively correlated traits could be concurrently selected for using PCA2 and PCA3. The application of

  5. Estimating the Accuracy of the Chedoke-McMaster Stroke Assessment Predictive Equations for Stroke Rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Dang, Mia; Ramsaran, Kalinda D; Street, Melissa E; Syed, S Noreen; Barclay-Goddard, Ruth; Stratford, Paul W; Miller, Patricia A

    2011-01-01

    To estimate the predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness of the Chedoke-McMaster Stroke Assessment (CMSA) predictive equations. A longitudinal prognostic study using historical data obtained from 104 patients admitted post cerebrovascular accident was undertaken. Data were abstracted for all patients undergoing rehabilitation post stroke who also had documented admission and discharge CMSA scores. Published predictive equations were used to determine predicted outcomes. To determine the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the predictive model, shrinkage coefficients and predictions with 95% confidence bands were calculated. Complete data were available for 74 patients with a mean age of 65.3±12.4 years. The shrinkage values for the six Impairment Inventory (II) dimensions varied from -0.05 to 0.09; the shrinkage value for the Activity Inventory (AI) was 0.21. The error associated with predictive values was greater than ±1.5 stages for the II dimensions and greater than ±24 points for the AI. This study shows that the large error associated with the predictions (as defined by the confidence band) for the CMSA II and AI limits their clinical usefulness as a predictive measure. Further research to establish predictive models using alternative statistical procedures is warranted.

  6. Predictive Validity and Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency for English Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vanderwood, Michael L.; Tung, Catherine Y.; Checca, C. Jason

    2014-01-01

    The predictive validity and accuracy of an oral reading fluency (ORF) measure for a statewide assessment in English language arts was examined for second-grade native English speakers (NESs) and English learners (ELs) with varying levels of English proficiency. In addition to comparing ELs with native English speakers, the impact of English…

  7. Accuracy of Different Modalities to Record Natural Head Position in 3 Dimensions: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Leung, Ming Yin; Lo, John; Leung, Yiu Yan

    2016-11-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) images are taken with positioning devices to ensure a patient's stability, which, however, place the patient's head into a random orientation. Reorientation of images to the natural head position (NHP) is necessary for appropriate assessment of dentofacial deformities before any surgical planning. The aim of this study was to review the literature systematically to identify and evaluate the various modalities available to record the NHP in 3 dimensions and to compare their accuracy. A systematic literature search of the PubMed, Cochrane Library and Embase databases, with no limitations on publication time or language, was performed in July 2015. The search and evaluations of articles were performed in 4 rounds. The methodologies, accuracies, advantages, and limitations of various modalities to record NHP were examined. Eight articles were included in the final review. Six modalities to record NHP were identified, namely 1) stereophotogrammetry, 2) facial markings along laser lines, 3) clinical photographs and the pose from orthography and scaling with iterations (POSIT) algorithm, 4) digital orientation sensing, 5) handheld 3D camera measuring system, and 6) laser scanning. Digital orientation sensing had good accuracy, with mean angular differences from the reference within 1° (0.07 ± 0.49° and 0.12 ± 0.54°, respectively). Laser scanning was shown to be comparable to digital orientation sensing. The method involving clinical photographs and the POSIT algorithm was reported to have good accuracy, with mean angular differences for pitch, roll, and yaw within 1° (-0.17 ± 0.50°). Stereophotogrammetry was reported to have the highest reliability, with mean angular deviations in pitch, roll, and yaw for active and passive stereophotogrammetric devices within 0.1° (0.004771 ± 0.045645° and 0.007572 ± 0.079088°, respectively). This systematic review showed that recording the NHP in 3 dimensions with a digital orientation sensor has good

  8. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    PubMed Central

    Chiu, Herng-Chia; Ho, Te-Wei; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Wen-Hsien

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation. PMID:23737707

  9. Accuracy and Precision of a Veterinary Neuronavigation System for Radiation Oncology Positioning

    PubMed Central

    Ballegeer, Elizabeth A.; Frey, Stephen; Sieffert, Rob

    2018-01-01

    Conformal radiation treatment plans such as IMRT and other radiosurgery techniques require very precise patient positioning, typically within a millimeter of error for best results. CT cone beam, real-time navigation, and infrared position sensors are potential options for success but rarely present in veterinary radiation centers. A neuronavigation system (Brainsight Vet, Rogue Research) was tested 22 times on a skull for positioning accuracy and precision analysis. The first 6 manipulations allowed the authors to become familiar with the system but were still included in the analyses. Overall, the targeting mean error in 3D was 1.437 mm with SD 1.242 mm. This system could be used for positioning for radiation therapy or radiosurgery. PMID:29666822

  10. NLOS mitigation and ranging accuracy for building indoor positioning system in UWB using commercial radio modules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alsudani, Ahlam

    2018-05-01

    In recent years, indoor positioning system (IPS) plays a very important role in several environments such as hospitals, airports, males, Etc. It is used to locate mobile stations such as human and robots inside buildings. Some of IPSs applications are: locating an elder or child needed for an urgent help in hospitals, emergency situations such as locating firefighters inside building on fire or policemen fitting terrorists inside building by a commander to help for expedite evacuation in case one of them need for help. In indoor positioning applications, the accuracy should be high as can as possible, in another word; the error should be less than 1 meter. The indoor environment is the major challenging to obtain such accuracy. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm to identify the line of sight (LOS) and non-line of sight (NLOS) channels and improve the positioning accuracy using ultra-wideband (UWB) technology implementing DW1000 devices.

  11. Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

    PubMed

    Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

    2017-04-01

    Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Increased genomic prediction accuracy in wheat breeding through spatial adjustment of field trial data.

    PubMed

    Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

    2013-12-09

    In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models.

  13. Increased Genomic Prediction Accuracy in Wheat Breeding Through Spatial Adjustment of Field Trial Data

    PubMed Central

    Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

    2013-01-01

    In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models. PMID:24082033

  14. Improving accuracy of genomic prediction in Brangus cattle by adding animals with imputed low-density SNP genotypes.

    PubMed

    Lopes, F B; Wu, X-L; Li, H; Xu, J; Perkins, T; Genho, J; Ferretti, R; Tait, R G; Bauck, S; Rosa, G J M

    2018-02-01

    Reliable genomic prediction of breeding values for quantitative traits requires the availability of sufficient number of animals with genotypes and phenotypes in the training set. As of 31 October 2016, there were 3,797 Brangus animals with genotypes and phenotypes. These Brangus animals were genotyped using different commercial SNP chips. Of them, the largest group consisted of 1,535 animals genotyped by the GGP-LDV4 SNP chip. The remaining 2,262 genotypes were imputed to the SNP content of the GGP-LDV4 chip, so that the number of animals available for training the genomic prediction models was more than doubled. The present study showed that the pooling of animals with both original or imputed 40K SNP genotypes substantially increased genomic prediction accuracies on the ten traits. By supplementing imputed genotypes, the relative gains in genomic prediction accuracies on estimated breeding values (EBV) were from 12.60% to 31.27%, and the relative gain in genomic prediction accuracies on de-regressed EBV was slightly small (i.e. 0.87%-18.75%). The present study also compared the performance of five genomic prediction models and two cross-validation methods. The five genomic models predicted EBV and de-regressed EBV of the ten traits similarly well. Of the two cross-validation methods, leave-one-out cross-validation maximized the number of animals at the stage of training for genomic prediction. Genomic prediction accuracy (GPA) on the ten quantitative traits was validated in 1,106 newly genotyped Brangus animals based on the SNP effects estimated in the previous set of 3,797 Brangus animals, and they were slightly lower than GPA in the original data. The present study was the first to leverage currently available genotype and phenotype resources in order to harness genomic prediction in Brangus beef cattle. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. Comparison of the accuracy of three algorithms in predicting accessory pathways among adult Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome patients.

    PubMed

    Maden, Orhan; Balci, Kevser Gülcihan; Selcuk, Mehmet Timur; Balci, Mustafa Mücahit; Açar, Burak; Unal, Sefa; Kara, Meryem; Selcuk, Hatice

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of three algorithms in predicting accessory pathway locations in adult patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome in Turkish population. A total of 207 adult patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome were retrospectively analyzed. The most preexcited 12-lead electrocardiogram in sinus rhythm was used for analysis. Two investigators blinded to the patient data used three algorithms for prediction of accessory pathway location. Among all locations, 48.5% were left-sided, 44% were right-sided, and 7.5% were located in the midseptum or anteroseptum. When only exact locations were accepted as match, predictive accuracy for Chiang was 71.5%, 72.4% for d'Avila, and 71.5% for Arruda. The percentage of predictive accuracy of all algorithms did not differ between the algorithms (p = 1.000; p = 0.875; p = 0.885, respectively). The best algorithm for prediction of right-sided, left-sided, and anteroseptal and midseptal accessory pathways was Arruda (p < 0.001). Arruda was significantly better than d'Avila in predicting adjacent sites (p = 0.035) and the percent of the contralateral site prediction was higher with d'Avila than Arruda (p = 0.013). All algorithms were similar in predicting accessory pathway location and the predicted accuracy was lower than previously reported by their authors. However, according to the accessory pathway site, the algorithm designed by Arruda et al. showed better predictions than the other algorithms and using this algorithm may provide advantages before a planned ablation.

  16. Temporal trends in symptom experience predict the accuracy of recall PROs

    PubMed Central

    Schneider, Stefan; Broderick, Joan E.; Junghaenel, Doerte U.; Schwartz, Joseph E.; Stone, Arthur A.

    2013-01-01

    Objective Patient-reported outcome measures with reporting periods of a week or more are often used to evaluate the change of symptoms over time, but the accuracy of recall in the context of change is not well understood. This study examined whether temporal trends in symptoms that occur during the reporting period impact the accuracy of 7-day recall reports. Methods Women with premenstrual symptoms (n = 95) completed daily reports of anger, depression, fatigue, and pain intensity for 4 weeks, as well as 7-day recall reports at the end of each week. Latent class growth analysis was used to categorize recall periods based on the direction and rate of change in the daily reports. Agreement (level differences and correlations) between 7-day recall and aggregated daily scores was compared for recall periods with different temporal trends. Results Recall periods with positive, negative, and flat temporal trends were identified and they varied in accordance with weeks of the menstrual cycle. Replicating previous research, 7-day recall scores were consistently higher than aggregated daily scores, but this level difference was more pronounced for recall periods involving positive and negative trends compared with flat trends. Moreover, correlations between 7-day recall and aggregated daily scores were lower in the presence of positive and negative trends compared with flat trends. These findings were largely consistent for anger, depression, fatigue, and pain intensity. Conclusion Temporal trends in symptoms can influence the accuracy of recall reports and this should be considered in research designs involving change. PMID:23915773

  17. High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storz, Mark F.; Bowman, Bruce R.; Branson, Major James I.; Casali, Stephen J.; Tobiska, W. Kent

    The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index ap, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.

  18. Estimating the Accuracy of the Chedoke–McMaster Stroke Assessment Predictive Equations for Stroke Rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Dang, Mia; Ramsaran, Kalinda D.; Street, Melissa E.; Syed, S. Noreen; Barclay-Goddard, Ruth; Miller, Patricia A.

    2011-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: To estimate the predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness of the Chedoke–McMaster Stroke Assessment (CMSA) predictive equations. Method: A longitudinal prognostic study using historical data obtained from 104 patients admitted post cerebrovascular accident was undertaken. Data were abstracted for all patients undergoing rehabilitation post stroke who also had documented admission and discharge CMSA scores. Published predictive equations were used to determine predicted outcomes. To determine the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the predictive model, shrinkage coefficients and predictions with 95% confidence bands were calculated. Results: Complete data were available for 74 patients with a mean age of 65.3±12.4 years. The shrinkage values for the six Impairment Inventory (II) dimensions varied from −0.05 to 0.09; the shrinkage value for the Activity Inventory (AI) was 0.21. The error associated with predictive values was greater than ±1.5 stages for the II dimensions and greater than ±24 points for the AI. Conclusions: This study shows that the large error associated with the predictions (as defined by the confidence band) for the CMSA II and AI limits their clinical usefulness as a predictive measure. Further research to establish predictive models using alternative statistical procedures is warranted. PMID:22654239

  19. A Method of Calculating Functional Independence Measure at Discharge from Functional Independence Measure Effectiveness Predicted by Multiple Regression Analysis Has a High Degree of Predictive Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Tokunaga, Makoto; Watanabe, Susumu; Sonoda, Shigeru

    2017-09-01

    Multiple linear regression analysis is often used to predict the outcome of stroke rehabilitation. However, the predictive accuracy may not be satisfactory. The objective of this study was to elucidate the predictive accuracy of a method of calculating motor Functional Independence Measure (mFIM) at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis. The subjects were 505 patients with stroke who were hospitalized in a convalescent rehabilitation hospital. The formula "mFIM at discharge = mFIM effectiveness × (91 points - mFIM at admission) + mFIM at admission" was used. By including the predicted mFIM effectiveness obtained through multiple regression analysis in this formula, we obtained the predicted mFIM at discharge (A). We also used multiple regression analysis to directly predict mFIM at discharge (B). The correlation between the predicted and the measured values of mFIM at discharge was compared between A and B. The correlation coefficients were .916 for A and .878 for B. Calculating mFIM at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis had a higher degree of predictive accuracy of mFIM at discharge than that directly predicted. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Study on the position accuracy of a mechanical alignment system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yimin

    In this thesis, we investigated the precision level and established the baseline achieved by a mechanical alignment system using datums and reference surfaces. The factors which affect the accuracy of mechanical alignment system were studied and methodology was developed to suppress these factors so as to reach its full potential precision. In order to characterize the mechanical alignment system quantitatively, a new optical position monitoring system by using quadrant detectors has been developed in this thesis, it can monitor multi-dimensional degrees of mechanical workpieces in real time with high precision. We studied the noise factors inside the system and optimized the optical system. Based on the fact that one of the major limiting noise factors is the shifting of the laser beam, a noise cancellation technique has been developed successfully to suppress this noise, the feasibility of an ultra high resolution (<20 A) for displacement monitoring has been demonstrated. Using the optical position monitoring system, repeatability experiment of the mechanical alignment system has been conducted on different kinds of samples including steel, aluminum, glass and plastics with the same size 100mm x 130mm. The alignment accuracy was studied quantitatively rather than qualitatively before. In a controlled environment, the alignment precision can be improved 5 folds by securing the datum without other means of help. The alignment accuracy of an aluminum workpiece having reference surface by milling is about 3 times better than by shearing. Also we have found that sample material can have fairly significant effect on the alignment precision of the system. Contamination trapped between the datum and reference surfaces in mechanical alignment system can cause errors of registration or reduce the level of manufacturing precision. In the thesis, artificial and natural dust particles were used to simulate the real situations and their effects on system precision have been

  1. Motor system contribution to action prediction: Temporal accuracy depends on motor experience.

    PubMed

    Stapel, Janny C; Hunnius, Sabine; Meyer, Marlene; Bekkering, Harold

    2016-03-01

    Predicting others' actions is essential for well-coordinated social interactions. In two experiments including an infant population, this study addresses to what extent motor experience of an observer determines prediction accuracy for others' actions. Results show that infants who were proficient crawlers but inexperienced walkers predicted crawling more accurately than walking, whereas age groups mastering both skills (i.e. toddlers and adults) were equally accurate in predicting walking and crawling. Regardless of experience, human movements were predicted more accurately by all age groups than non-human movement control stimuli. This suggests that for predictions to be accurate, the observed act needs to be established in the motor repertoire of the observer. Through the acquisition of new motor skills, we also become better at predicting others' actions. The findings thus stress the relevance of motor experience for social-cognitive development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Accuracy and repeatability positioning of high-performancel athe for non-circular turning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majda, Paweł; Powałka, Bartosz

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents research on the accuracy and repeatability of CNC axis positioning in an innovative lathe with an additional Xs axis. This axis is used to perform movements synchronized with the angular position of the main drive, i.e. the spindle, and with the axial feed along the Z axis. This enables the one-pass turning of non-circular surfaces, rope and trapezoidal threads, as well as the surfaces of rotary tools such as a gear cutting hob, etc. The paper presents and discusses the interpretation of results and the calibration effects of positioning errors in the lathe's numerical control system. Finally, it shows the geometric characteristics of the rope thread turned at various spindle speeds, including before and after-correction of the positioning error of the Xs axis.

  3. Glucose Prediction Algorithms from Continuous Monitoring Data: Assessment of Accuracy via Continuous Glucose Error-Grid Analysis.

    PubMed

    Zanderigo, Francesca; Sparacino, Giovanni; Kovatchev, Boris; Cobelli, Claudio

    2007-09-01

    The aim of this article was to use continuous glucose error-grid analysis (CG-EGA) to assess the accuracy of two time-series modeling methodologies recently developed to predict glucose levels ahead of time using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. We considered subcutaneous time series of glucose concentration monitored every 3 minutes for 48 hours by the minimally invasive CGM sensor Glucoday® (Menarini Diagnostics, Florence, Italy) in 28 type 1 diabetic volunteers. Two prediction algorithms, based on first-order polynomial and autoregressive (AR) models, respectively, were considered with prediction horizons of 30 and 45 minutes and forgetting factors (ff) of 0.2, 0.5, and 0.8. CG-EGA was used on the predicted profiles to assess their point and dynamic accuracies using original CGM profiles as reference. Continuous glucose error-grid analysis showed that the accuracy of both prediction algorithms is overall very good and that their performance is similar from a clinical point of view. However, the AR model seems preferable for hypoglycemia prevention. CG-EGA also suggests that, irrespective of the time-series model, the use of ff = 0.8 yields the highest accurate readings in all glucose ranges. For the first time, CG-EGA is proposed as a tool to assess clinically relevant performance of a prediction method separately at hypoglycemia, euglycemia, and hyperglycemia. In particular, we have shown that CG-EGA can be helpful in comparing different prediction algorithms, as well as in optimizing their parameters.

  4. Smart Device-Supported BDS/GNSS Real-Time Kinematic Positioning for Sub-Meter-Level Accuracy in Urban Location-Based Services.

    PubMed

    Wang, Liang; Li, Zishen; Zhao, Jiaojiao; Zhou, Kai; Wang, Zhiyu; Yuan, Hong

    2016-12-21

    Using mobile smart devices to provide urban location-based services (LBS) with sub-meter-level accuracy (around 0.5 m) is a major application field for future global navigation satellite system (GNSS) development. Real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning, which is a widely used GNSS-based positioning approach, can improve the accuracy from about 10-20 m (achieved by the standard positioning services) to about 3-5 cm based on the geodetic receivers. In using the smart devices to achieve positioning with sub-meter-level accuracy, a feasible solution of combining the low-cost GNSS module and the smart device is proposed in this work and a user-side GNSS RTK positioning software was developed from scratch based on the Android platform. Its real-time positioning performance was validated by BeiDou Navigation Satellite System/Global Positioning System (BDS/GPS) combined RTK positioning under the conditions of a static and kinematic (the velocity of the rover was 50-80 km/h) mode in a real urban environment with a SAMSUNG Galaxy A7 smartphone. The results show that the fixed-rates of ambiguity resolution (the proportion of epochs of ambiguities fixed) for BDS/GPS combined RTK in the static and kinematic tests were about 97% and 90%, respectively, and the average positioning accuracies (RMS) were better than 0.15 m (horizontal) and 0.25 m (vertical) for the static test, and 0.30 m (horizontal) and 0.45 m (vertical) for the kinematic test.

  5. Time to Positivity and Detection of Growth in Anaerobic Blood Culture Vials Predict the Presence of Candida glabrata in Candidemia: a Two-Center European Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Kaasch, Achim J.; Soriano, Alex; Torres, Jorge-Luis; Vergara, Andrea; Morata, Laura; Zboromyrska, Yuliya; De La Calle, Cristina; Alejo, Izaskun; Hernández, Cristina; Cardozo, Celia; Marco, Franscesc; Del Río, Ana; Almela, Manel; Mensa, Josep; Martínez, José Antonio

    2014-01-01

    This study shows the accuracy of exclusive or earlier growth in anaerobic vials to predict Candida glabrata in a large series of candidemic patients from two European hospitals using the Bactec 9240 system. Alternatively, C. glabrata can be predicted by a time to positivity cutoff value, which should be determined for each setting. PMID:24899027

  6. Improving Prediction Accuracy of “Central Line-Associated Blood Stream Infections” Using Data Mining Models

    PubMed Central

    Noaman, Amin Y.; Jamjoom, Arwa; Al-Abdullah, Nabeela; Nasir, Mahreen; Ali, Anser G.

    2017-01-01

    Prediction of nosocomial infections among patients is an important part of clinical surveillance programs to enable the related personnel to take preventive actions in advance. Designing a clinical surveillance program with capability of predicting nosocomial infections is a challenging task due to several reasons, including high dimensionality of medical data, heterogenous data representation, and special knowledge required to extract patterns for prediction. In this paper, we present details of six data mining methods implemented using cross industry standard process for data mining to predict central line-associated blood stream infections. For our study, we selected datasets of healthcare-associated infections from US National Healthcare Safety Network and consumer survey data from Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems. Our experiments show that central line-associated blood stream infections (CLABSIs) can be successfully predicted using AdaBoost method with an accuracy up to 89.7%. This will help in implementing effective clinical surveillance programs for infection control, as well as improving the accuracy detection of CLABSIs. Also, this reduces patients' hospital stay cost and maintains patients' safety. PMID:29085836

  7. Genomic relationships based on X chromosome markers and accuracy of genomic predictions with and without X chromosome markers

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Although the X chromosome is the second largest bovine chromosome, markers on the X chromosome are not used for genomic prediction in some countries and populations. In this study, we presented a method for computing genomic relationships using X chromosome markers, investigated the accuracy of imputation from a low density (7K) to the 54K SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) panel, and compared the accuracy of genomic prediction with and without using X chromosome markers. Methods The impact of considering X chromosome markers on prediction accuracy was assessed using data from Nordic Holstein bulls and different sets of SNPs: (a) the 54K SNPs for reference and test animals, (b) SNPs imputed from the 7K to the 54K SNP panel for test animals, (c) SNPs imputed from the 7K to the 54K panel for half of the reference animals, and (d) the 7K SNP panel for all animals. Beagle and Findhap were used for imputation. GBLUP (genomic best linear unbiased prediction) models with or without X chromosome markers and with or without a residual polygenic effect were used to predict genomic breeding values for 15 traits. Results Averaged over the two imputation datasets, correlation coefficients between imputed and true genotypes for autosomal markers, pseudo-autosomal markers, and X-specific markers were 0.971, 0.831 and 0.935 when using Findhap, and 0.983, 0.856 and 0.937 when using Beagle. Estimated reliabilities of genomic predictions based on the imputed datasets using Findhap or Beagle were very close to those using the real 54K data. Genomic prediction using all markers gave slightly higher reliabilities than predictions without X chromosome markers. Based on our data which included only bulls, using a G matrix that accounted for sex-linked relationships did not improve prediction, compared with a G matrix that did not account for sex-linked relationships. A model that included a polygenic effect did not recover the loss of prediction accuracy from exclusion of X

  8. Numerical simulation of turbulence flow in a Kaplan turbine -Evaluation on turbine performance prediction accuracy-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ko, P.; Kurosawa, S.

    2014-03-01

    The understanding and accurate prediction of the flow behaviour related to cavitation and pressure fluctuation in a Kaplan turbine are important to the design work enhancing the turbine performance including the elongation of the operation life span and the improvement of turbine efficiency. In this paper, high accuracy turbine and cavitation performance prediction method based on entire flow passage for a Kaplan turbine is presented and evaluated. Two-phase flow field is predicted by solving Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations expressed by volume of fluid method tracking the free surface and combined with Reynolds Stress model. The growth and collapse of cavitation bubbles are modelled by the modified Rayleigh-Plesset equation. The prediction accuracy is evaluated by comparing with the model test results of Ns 400 Kaplan model turbine. As a result that the experimentally measured data including turbine efficiency, cavitation performance, and pressure fluctuation are accurately predicted. Furthermore, the cavitation occurrence on the runner blade surface and the influence to the hydraulic loss of the flow passage are discussed. Evaluated prediction method for the turbine flow and performance is introduced to facilitate the future design and research works on Kaplan type turbine.

  9. Improving the accuracy of camber predictions for precast pretensioned concrete beams : [tech transfer summary].

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-07-01

    Implementing the recommendations of this study is expected to significantly : improve the accuracy of camber measurements and predictions and to : ultimately help reduce construction delays, improve bridge serviceability, : and decrease costs.

  10. The Diagnostic Accuracy of the Berg Balance Scale in Predicting Falls.

    PubMed

    Park, Seong-Hi; Lee, Young-Shin

    2017-11-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the predictive validity of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) as a screening tool for fall risks among those with varied levels of balance. A total of 21 studies reporting predictive validity of the BBS of fall risk were meta-analyzed. With regard to the overall predictive validity of the BBS, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.72 and 0.73, respectively; the accuracy curve area was 0.84. The findings showed statistical heterogeneity among studies. Among the sub-groups, the age group of those younger than 65 years, those with neuromuscular disease, those with 2+ falls, and those with a cutoff point of 45 to 49 showed better sensitivity with statistically less heterogeneity. The empirical evidence indicates that the BBS is a suitable tool to screen for the risk of falls and shows good predictability when used with the appropriate criteria and applied to those with neuromuscular disease.

  11. A novel unscented predictive filter for relative position and attitude estimation of satellite formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Lu; Chen, Xiaoqian; Misra, Arun K.

    2015-07-01

    This paper presents a novel sigma-point unscented predictive filter (UPF) for relative position and attitude estimation of satellite formation taking into account the influence of J2. A coupled relative translational dynamics model is formulated to represent orbital motion of arbitrary feature points on the deputy spacecraft, and the relative attitude motion is formulated by considering a rotational dynamics for a satellite without gyros. Based on the proposed coupled dynamic model, the UPF is developed based on unscented transformation technique, extending the capability of a traditional predictive filter (PF). The algorithm flow of the UPF is described first. Then it is demonstrated that the estimation accuracy of the model error and system state for UPF is higher than that of the traditional PF. In addition, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is also employed in order to compare the performance of the proposed UPF with that of the UKF. Several different scenarios are simulated to validate the effectiveness of the coupled dynamics model and the performance of the proposed UPF. Through comparisons, the proposed UPF is shown to yield highly accurate estimation of relative position and attitude during satellite formation flying.

  12. Smart Device-Supported BDS/GNSS Real-Time Kinematic Positioning for Sub-Meter-Level Accuracy in Urban Location-Based Services

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Liang; Li, Zishen; Zhao, Jiaojiao; Zhou, Kai; Wang, Zhiyu; Yuan, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Using mobile smart devices to provide urban location-based services (LBS) with sub-meter-level accuracy (around 0.5 m) is a major application field for future global navigation satellite system (GNSS) development. Real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning, which is a widely used GNSS-based positioning approach, can improve the accuracy from about 10–20 m (achieved by the standard positioning services) to about 3–5 cm based on the geodetic receivers. In using the smart devices to achieve positioning with sub-meter-level accuracy, a feasible solution of combining the low-cost GNSS module and the smart device is proposed in this work and a user-side GNSS RTK positioning software was developed from scratch based on the Android platform. Its real-time positioning performance was validated by BeiDou Navigation Satellite System/Global Positioning System (BDS/GPS) combined RTK positioning under the conditions of a static and kinematic (the velocity of the rover was 50–80 km/h) mode in a real urban environment with a SAMSUNG Galaxy A7 smartphone. The results show that the fixed-rates of ambiguity resolution (the proportion of epochs of ambiguities fixed) for BDS/GPS combined RTK in the static and kinematic tests were about 97% and 90%, respectively, and the average positioning accuracies (RMS) were better than 0.15 m (horizontal) and 0.25 m (vertical) for the static test, and 0.30 m (horizontal) and 0.45 m (vertical) for the kinematic test. PMID:28009835

  13. High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storz, M.; Bowman, B.; Branson, J.

    The dominant error source in the force models used to predict low perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying high-resolution density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal, semidiurnal and terdiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a p to the DCA density correction parameters. The E10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low perigee satellites.

  14. Accuracy of ultrasound in the detection of liver fibrosis in chronic viral hepatitis.

    PubMed

    D'Onofrio, Mirko; Martone, Enrico; Brunelli, Silvia; Faccioli, Niccolò; Zamboni, Giulia; Zagni, Irene; Fattovich, Giovanna; Pozzi Mucelli, Roberto

    2005-10-01

    To assess the accuracy of ultrasonography (US) in the identification and grading of hepatic fibrosis in patients afflicted with chronic viral liver disease, compared to histological examination as a gold standard. We prospectively studied 105 patients (32 F, 73 M) affected by chronic viral liver disease in 36 months. Patients were studied with B-mode US and then underwent US-guided liver biopsy. All the patients were studied with conventional US with a Sequoia 512, 6.0 (Acuson, Mountain View CA, USA). We evaluated the following US parameters: liver margins, parenchymal echotexture, portal vein caliber and spleen diameter. The four B-mode US parameters were used for the US grading (from 0 to 4). Scheuer's grading (from 0 to 4) was used for the histological score. Grades 3 and 4 were considered as positive for fibrosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy were calculated in the case of absence, positivity of one or all the US parameters. The correlation between US and histological scores was evaluated with Spearman's test. At histology seventy-seven patients (73%) had absent grade 0 (1 patient; 1%), low-moderate grade 1 (35 patients; 33%) or grade 2 (41 patients; 39%) liver fibrosis. Twenty-eight patients (27%) had severe grade 3 (16 patients; 15%) or grade 4 (12 patients; 11%) fibrosis. In the case of absence of US parameters sensitivity was 32%, specificity 32%, positive predictive value 15%, negative predictive value 57% and accuracy 32%. In the case of positivity of at least one of the US parameters the values were 68%, 68%, 43%, 84% and 69%. In the case of presence of all the US signs the results were 25%, 100%, 100%, 79% and 80%. None of the 77 patients with a healthy liver or with low-grade fibrosis was positive for all the US parameters. All the patients positive for all of the ultrasonographic parameters had high-grade fibrosis or cirrhosis at liver biopsy. Correlation between B-mode and histological scores was not

  15. Accuracy of Single Frequency GPS Observations Processing In Near Real-time With Use of Code Predicted Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wielgosz, P. A.

    In this year, the system of active geodetic GPS permanent stations is going to be estab- lished in Poland. This system should provide GPS observations for a wide spectrum of users, especially it will be a great opportunity for surveyors. Many of surveyors still use cheaper, single frequency receivers. This paper focuses on processing of single frequency GPS observations only. During processing of such observations the iono- sphere plays an important role, so we concentrated on the influence of the ionosphere on the positional coordinates. Twenty consecutive days of GPS data from 2001 year were processed to analyze the accuracy of a derived three-dimensional relative vec- tor position between GPS stations. Observations from two Polish EPN/IGS stations: BOGO and JOZE were used. In addition to, a new test station - IGIK was created. In this paper, the results of single frequency GPS observations processing in near real- time are presented. Baselines of 15, 27 and 42 kilometers and sessions of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 hours long were processed. While processing we used CODE (Centre for Orbit De- termination in Europe, Bern, Switzerland) predicted products: orbits and ionosphere info. These products are available in real-time and enable near real-time processing. Software Bernese v. 4.2 for Linux and BPE (Bernese Processing Engine) mode were used. These results are shown with a reference to dual frequency weekly solution (the best solution). Obtained GPS positional time and GPS baseline length dependency accuracy is presented for single frequency GPS observations.

  16. Minimotif Miner 3.0: database expansion and significantly improved reduction of false-positive predictions from consensus sequences.

    PubMed

    Mi, Tian; Merlin, Jerlin Camilus; Deverasetty, Sandeep; Gryk, Michael R; Bill, Travis J; Brooks, Andrew W; Lee, Logan Y; Rathnayake, Viraj; Ross, Christian A; Sargeant, David P; Strong, Christy L; Watts, Paula; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar; Schiller, Martin R

    2012-01-01

    Minimotif Miner (MnM available at http://minimotifminer.org or http://mnm.engr.uconn.edu) is an online database for identifying new minimotifs in protein queries. Minimotifs are short contiguous peptide sequences that have a known function in at least one protein. Here we report the third release of the MnM database which has now grown 60-fold to approximately 300,000 minimotifs. Since short minimotifs are by their nature not very complex we also summarize a new set of false-positive filters and linear regression scoring that vastly enhance minimotif prediction accuracy on a test data set. This online database can be used to predict new functions in proteins and causes of disease.

  17. Prediction of soil properties using imaging spectroscopy: Considering fractional vegetation cover to improve accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franceschini, M. H. D.; Demattê, J. A. M.; da Silva Terra, F.; Vicente, L. E.; Bartholomeus, H.; de Souza Filho, C. R.

    2015-06-01

    Spectroscopic techniques have become attractive to assess soil properties because they are fast, require little labor and may reduce the amount of laboratory waste produced when compared to conventional methods. Imaging spectroscopy (IS) can have further advantages compared to laboratory or field proximal spectroscopic approaches such as providing spatially continuous information with a high density. However, the accuracy of IS derived predictions decreases when the spectral mixture of soil with other targets occurs. This paper evaluates the use of spectral data obtained by an airborne hyperspectral sensor (ProSpecTIR-VS - Aisa dual sensor) for prediction of physical and chemical properties of Brazilian highly weathered soils (i.e., Oxisols). A methodology to assess the soil spectral mixture is adapted and a progressive spectral dataset selection procedure, based on bare soil fractional cover, is proposed and tested. Satisfactory performances are obtained specially for the quantification of clay, sand and CEC using airborne sensor data (R2 of 0.77, 0.79 and 0.54; RPD of 2.14, 2.22 and 1.50, respectively), after spectral data selection is performed; although results obtained for laboratory data are more accurate (R2 of 0.92, 0.85 and 0.75; RPD of 3.52, 2.62 and 2.04, for clay, sand and CEC, respectively). Most importantly, predictions based on airborne-derived spectra for which the bare soil fractional cover is not taken into account show considerable lower accuracy, for example for clay, sand and CEC (RPD of 1.52, 1.64 and 1.16, respectively). Therefore, hyperspectral remotely sensed data can be used to predict topsoil properties of highly weathered soils, although spectral mixture of bare soil with vegetation must be considered in order to achieve an improved prediction accuracy.

  18. Model Predictions and Observed Performance of JWST's Cryogenic Position Metrology System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lunt, Sharon R.; Rhodes, David; DiAntonio, Andrew; Boland, John; Wells, Conrad; Gigliotti, Trevis; Johanning, Gary

    2016-01-01

    The James Webb Space Telescope cryogenic testing requires measurement systems that both obtain a very high degree of accuracy and can function in that environment. Close-range photogrammetry was identified as meeting those criteria. Testing the capability of a close-range photogrammetric system prior to its existence is a challenging problem. Computer simulation was chosen over building a scaled mock-up to allow for increased flexibility in testing various configurations. Extensive validation work was done to ensure that the actual as-built system meet accuracy and repeatability requirements. The simulated image data predicted the uncertainty in measurement to be within specification and this prediction was borne out experimentally. Uncertainty at all levels was verified experimentally to be less than 0.1 millimeters.

  19. Prediction-Oriented Marker Selection (PROMISE): With Application to High-Dimensional Regression.

    PubMed

    Kim, Soyeon; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Lee, J Jack

    2017-06-01

    In personalized medicine, biomarkers are used to select therapies with the highest likelihood of success based on an individual patient's biomarker/genomic profile. Two goals are to choose important biomarkers that accurately predict treatment outcomes and to cull unimportant biomarkers to reduce the cost of biological and clinical verifications. These goals are challenging due to the high dimensionality of genomic data. Variable selection methods based on penalized regression (e.g., the lasso and elastic net) have yielded promising results. However, selecting the right amount of penalization is critical to simultaneously achieving these two goals. Standard approaches based on cross-validation (CV) typically provide high prediction accuracy with high true positive rates but at the cost of too many false positives. Alternatively, stability selection (SS) controls the number of false positives, but at the cost of yielding too few true positives. To circumvent these issues, we propose prediction-oriented marker selection (PROMISE), which combines SS with CV to conflate the advantages of both methods. Our application of PROMISE with the lasso and elastic net in data analysis shows that, compared to CV, PROMISE produces sparse solutions, few false positives, and small type I + type II error, and maintains good prediction accuracy, with a marginal decrease in the true positive rates. Compared to SS, PROMISE offers better prediction accuracy and true positive rates. In summary, PROMISE can be applied in many fields to select regularization parameters when the goals are to minimize false positives and maximize prediction accuracy.

  20. Time and position accuracy using codeless GPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, C. E.; Jefferson, D. C.; Lichten, S. M.; Thomas, J. B.; Vigue, Y.; Young, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    The Global Positioning System has allowed scientists and engineers to make measurements having accuracy far beyond the original 15 meter goal of the system. Using global networks of P-Code capable receivers and extensive post-processing, geodesists have achieved baseline precision of a few parts per billion, and clock offsets have been measured at the nanosecond level over intercontinental distances. A cloud hangs over this picture, however. The Department of Defense plans to encrypt the P-Code (called Anti-Spoofing, or AS) in the fall of 1993. After this event, geodetic and time measurements will have to be made using codeless GPS receivers. However, there appears to be a silver lining to the cloud. In response to the anticipated encryption of the P-Code, the geodetic and GPS receiver community has developed some remarkably effective means of coping with AS without classified information. We will discuss various codeless techniques currently available and the data noise resulting from each. We will review some geodetic results obtained using only codeless data, and discuss the implications for time measurements. Finally, we will present the status of GPS research at JPL in relation to codeless clock measurements.

  1. Predictive accuracy of a model of volatile anesthetic uptake.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, R Ross; French, Richard A; Spencer, Christopher

    2002-12-01

    A computer program that models anesthetic uptake and distribution has been in use in our department for 20 yr as a teaching tool. New anesthesia machines that electronically measure fresh gas flow rates and vaporizer settings allowed us to assess the performance of this model during clinical anesthesia. Gas flow, vaporizer settings, and end-tidal concentrations were collected from the anesthesia machine (Datex S/5 ADU) at 10-s intervals during 30 elective anesthetics. These were entered into the uptake model. Expired anesthetic vapor concentrations were calculated and compared with actual values as measured by the patient monitor (Datex AS/3). Sevoflurane was used in 16 patients and isoflurane in 14 patients. For all patients, the median performance error was -0.24%, the median absolute performance error was 13.7%, divergence was 2.3%/h, and wobble was 3.1%. There was no significant difference between sevoflurane and isoflurane. This model predicted expired concentrations well in these patients. These results are similar to those seen when comparing calculated and actual propofol concentrations in propofol infusion systems and meet published guidelines for the accuracy of models used in target-controlled anesthesia systems. This model may be useful for predicting responses to changes in fresh gas and vapor settings. We compared measured inhaled anesthetic concentrations with those predicted by a model. The method used for comparison has been used to study models of propofol administration. Our model predicts expired isoflurane and sevoflurane concentrations at least as well as common propofol models predict arterial propofol concentrations.

  2. Accuracy of binding mode prediction with a cascadic stochastic tunneling method.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Bernhard; Basili, Serena; Merlitz, Holger; Wenzel, Wolfgang

    2007-07-01

    We investigate the accuracy of the binding modes predicted for 83 complexes of the high-resolution subset of the ASTEX/CCDC receptor-ligand database using the atomistic FlexScreen approach with a simple forcefield-based scoring function. The median RMS deviation between experimental and predicted binding mode was just 0.83 A. Over 80% of the ligands dock within 2 A of the experimental binding mode, for 60 complexes the docking protocol locates the correct binding mode in all of ten independent simulations. Most docking failures arise because (a) the experimental structure clashed in our forcefield and is thus unattainable in the docking process or (b) because the ligand is stabilized by crystal water. 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  3. Predicting Ambulance Time of Arrival to the Emergency Department Using Global Positioning System and Google Maps

    PubMed Central

    Fleischman, Ross J.; Lundquist, Mark; Jui, Jonathan; Newgard, Craig D.; Warden, Craig

    2014-01-01

    Objective To derive and validate a model that accurately predicts ambulance arrival time that could be implemented as a Google Maps web application. Methods This was a retrospective study of all scene transports in Multnomah County, Oregon, from January 1 through December 31, 2008. Scene and destination hospital addresses were converted to coordinates. ArcGIS Network Analyst was used to estimate transport times based on street network speed limits. We then created a linear regression model to improve the accuracy of these street network estimates using weather, patient characteristics, use of lights and sirens, daylight, and rush-hour intervals. The model was derived from a 50% sample and validated on the remainder. Significance of the covariates was determined by p < 0.05 for a t-test of the model coefficients. Accuracy was quantified by the proportion of estimates that were within 5 minutes of the actual transport times recorded by computer-aided dispatch. We then built a Google Maps-based web application to demonstrate application in real-world EMS operations. Results There were 48,308 included transports. Street network estimates of transport time were accurate within 5 minutes of actual transport time less than 16% of the time. Actual transport times were longer during daylight and rush-hour intervals and shorter with use of lights and sirens. Age under 18 years, gender, wet weather, and trauma system entry were not significant predictors of transport time. Our model predicted arrival time within 5 minutes 73% of the time. For lights and sirens transports, accuracy was within 5 minutes 77% of the time. Accuracy was identical in the validation dataset. Lights and sirens saved an average of 3.1 minutes for transports under 8.8 minutes, and 5.3 minutes for longer transports. Conclusions An estimate of transport time based only on a street network significantly underestimated transport times. A simple model incorporating few variables can predict ambulance time of

  4. Time to positivity and detection of growth in anaerobic blood culture vials predict the presence of Candida glabrata in candidemia: a two-center European cohort study.

    PubMed

    Cobos-Trigueros, Nazaret; Kaasch, Achim J; Soriano, Alex; Torres, Jorge-Luis; Vergara, Andrea; Morata, Laura; Zboromyrska, Yuliya; De La Calle, Cristina; Alejo, Izaskun; Hernández, Cristina; Cardozo, Celia; Marco, Franscesc; Del Río, Ana; Almela, Manel; Mensa, Josep; Martínez, José Antonio

    2014-08-01

    This study shows the accuracy of exclusive or earlier growth in anaerobic vials to predict Candida glabrata in a large series of candidemic patients from two European hospitals using the Bactec 9240 system. Alternatively, C. glabrata can be predicted by a time to positivity cutoff value, which should be determined for each setting. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  5. Accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Bruno Prata; Gomes, Isabela Barboza; Oliveira, Carolina Santana de; Ramos, Isis Resende; Rocha, Mônica Diniz Marques; Forgiarini Júnior, Luiz Alberto; Camelier, Fernanda Warken Rosa; Camelier, Aquiles Assunção

    2015-05-01

    The ability of the Timed Up and Go test to predict sarcopenia has not been evaluated previously. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients. This cross-sectional study analyzed 68 elderly patients (≥60 years of age) in a private hospital in the city of Salvador-BA, Brazil, between the 1st and 5th day of hospitalization. The predictive variable was the Timed Up and Go test score, and the outcome of interest was the presence of sarcopenia (reduced muscle mass associated with a reduction in handgrip strength and/or weak physical performance in a 6-m gait-speed test). After the descriptive data analyses, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of a test using the predictive variable to predict the presence of sarcopenia were calculated. In total, 68 elderly individuals, with a mean age 70.4±7.7 years, were evaluated. The subjects had a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 5.35±1.97. Most (64.7%) of the subjects had a clinical admission profile; the main reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular disorders (22.1%), pneumonia (19.1%) and abdominal disorders (10.2%). The frequency of sarcopenia in the sample was 22.1%, and the mean length of time spent performing the Timed Up and Go test was 10.02±5.38 s. A time longer than or equal to a cutoff of 10.85 s on the Timed Up and Go test predicted sarcopenia with a sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 88.7%. The accuracy of this cutoff for the Timed Up and Go test was good (0.80; IC=0.66-0.94; p=0.002). The Timed Up and Go test was shown to be a predictor of sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

  6. Unexpected but Incidental Positive Outcomes Predict Real-World Gambling.

    PubMed

    Otto, A Ross; Fleming, Stephen M; Glimcher, Paul W

    2016-03-01

    Positive mood can affect a person's tendency to gamble, possibly because positive mood fosters unrealistic optimism. At the same time, unexpected positive outcomes, often called prediction errors, influence mood. However, a linkage between positive prediction errors-the difference between expected and obtained outcomes-and consequent risk taking has yet to be demonstrated. Using a large data set of New York City lottery gambling and a model inspired by computational accounts of reward learning, we found that people gamble more when incidental outcomes in the environment (e.g., local sporting events and sunshine) are better than expected. When local sports teams performed better than expected, or a sunny day followed a streak of cloudy days, residents gambled more. The observed relationship between prediction errors and gambling was ubiquitous across the city's socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods and was specific to sports and weather events occurring locally in New York City. Our results suggest that unexpected but incidental positive outcomes influence risk taking. © The Author(s) 2016.

  7. Ultrasonic prediction of term birth weight in Hispanic women. Accuracy in an outpatient clinic.

    PubMed

    Nahum, Gerard G; Pham, Krystle Q; McHugh, John P

    2003-01-01

    To investigate the accuracy of ultrasonic fetal biometric algorithms for estimating term fetal weight. Ultrasonographic fetal biometric assessments were made in 74 Hispanic women who delivered at 37-42 weeks of gestation. Measurements were taken of the fetal biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference and femur length. Twenty-seven standard fetal biometric algorithms were assessed for their accuracy in predicting fetal weight. Results were compared to those obtained by merely guessing the mean term birth weight in each case. The correlation between ultrasonically predicted and actual birth weights ranged from 0.52 to 0.79. The different ultrasonic algorithms estimated fetal weight to within +/- 8.6-15.0% (+/- 295-520 g) of actual birth weight as compared with +/- 13.6% (+/- 449 g) for guessing the mean birth weight in each case (mean +/- SD). The mean absolute prediction errors for 17 of the ultrasonic equations (63%) were superior to those obtained by guessing the mean birth weight by 3.2-5.0% (96-154 g) (P < .05). Fourteen algorithms (52%) were more accurate for predicting fetal weight to within +/- 15%, and 20 algorithms (74%) were more accurate for predicting fetal weight to within +/- 10% of actual birth weight than simply guessing the mean birth weight (P < .05). Ten ultrasonic equations (37%) showed significant utility for predicting fetal weight > 4,000 g (likelihood ratio > 5.0). Term fetal weight predictions using the majority of sonographic fetal biometric equations are more accurate, by up to 154 g and 5%, than simply guessing the population-specific mean birth weight.

  8. Rebound from marital conflict and divorce prediction.

    PubMed

    Gottman, J M; Levenson, R W

    1999-01-01

    Marital interaction has primarily been examined in the context of conflict resolution. This study investigated the predictive ability of couples to rebound from marital conflict in a subsequent positive conversation. Results showed that there was a great deal of consistency in affect across both conversations. Also examined was the ability of affective interaction to predict divorce over a 4-year period, separately in each of the two conversations. It was possible to predict divorce using affective variables from each conversation, with 82.6% accuracy from the conflict conversation and with 92.7% accuracy from the positive rebound conversation.

  9. Accuracy of genomic predictions in Gyr (Bos indicus) dairy cattle.

    PubMed

    Boison, S A; Utsunomiya, A T H; Santos, D J A; Neves, H H R; Carvalheiro, R; Mészáros, G; Utsunomiya, Y T; do Carmo, A S; Verneque, R S; Machado, M A; Panetto, J C C; Garcia, J F; Sölkner, J; da Silva, M V G B

    2017-07-01

    Genomic selection may accelerate genetic progress in breeding programs of indicine breeds when compared with traditional selection methods. We present results of genomic predictions in Gyr (Bos indicus) dairy cattle of Brazil for milk yield (MY), fat yield (FY), protein yield (PY), and age at first calving using information from bulls and cows. Four different single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) chips were studied. Additionally, the effect of the use of imputed data on genomic prediction accuracy was studied. A total of 474 bulls and 1,688 cows were genotyped with the Illumina BovineHD (HD; San Diego, CA) and BovineSNP50 (50K) chip, respectively. Genotypes of cows were imputed to HD using FImpute v2.2. After quality check of data, 496,606 markers remained. The HD markers present on the GeneSeek SGGP-20Ki (15,727; Lincoln, NE), 50K (22,152), and GeneSeek GGP-75Ki (65,018) were subset and used to assess the effect of lower SNP density on accuracy of prediction. Deregressed breeding values were used as pseudophenotypes for model training. Data were split into reference and validation to mimic a forward prediction scheme. The reference population consisted of animals whose birth year was ≤2004 and consisted of either only bulls (TR1) or a combination of bulls and dams (TR2), whereas the validation set consisted of younger bulls (born after 2004). Genomic BLUP was used to estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV) and reliability of GEBV (R 2 PEV ) was based on the prediction error variance approach. Reliability of GEBV ranged from ∼0.46 (FY and PY) to 0.56 (MY) with TR1 and from 0.51 (PY) to 0.65 (MY) with TR2. When averaged across all traits, R 2 PEV were substantially higher (R 2 PEV of TR1 = 0.50 and TR2 = 0.57) compared with reliabilities of parent averages (0.35) computed from pedigree data and based on diagonals of the coefficient matrix (prediction error variance approach). Reliability was similar for all the 4 marker panels using either TR1 or TR2, except that

  10. Predictive accuracy of particle filtering in dynamic models supporting outbreak projections.

    PubMed

    Safarishahrbijari, Anahita; Teyhouee, Aydin; Waldner, Cheryl; Liu, Juxin; Osgood, Nathaniel D

    2017-09-26

    While a new generation of computational statistics algorithms and availability of data streams raises the potential for recurrently regrounding dynamic models with incoming observations, the effectiveness of such arrangements can be highly subject to specifics of the configuration (e.g., frequency of sampling and representation of behaviour change), and there has been little attempt to identify effective configurations. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering, we explored a solution focusing on creating quickly formulated models regrounded automatically and recurrently as new data becomes available. Given a latent underlying case count, we assumed that observed incident case counts followed a negative binomial distribution. In accordance with the condensation algorithm, each such observation led to updating of particle weights. We evaluated the effectiveness of various particle filtering configurations against each other and against an approach without particle filtering according to the accuracy of the model in predicting future prevalence, given data to a certain point and a norm-based discrepancy metric. We examined the effectiveness of particle filtering under varying times between observations, negative binomial dispersion parameters, and rates with which the contact rate could evolve. We observed that more frequent observations of empirical data yielded super-linearly improved accuracy in model predictions. We further found that for the data studied here, the most favourable assumptions to make regarding the parameters associated with the negative binomial distribution and changes in contact rate were robust across observation frequency and the observation point in the outbreak. Combining dynamic models with particle filtering can perform well in projecting future evolution of an outbreak. Most importantly, the remarkable improvements in predictive accuracy resulting from more frequent sampling suggest that investments to achieve efficient reporting

  11. Prediction of miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy-A systematic review and diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Pillai, Rekha N; Konje, Justin C; Richardson, Matthew; Tincello, Douglas G; Potdar, Neelam

    2018-01-01

    Both ultrasound and biochemical markers either alone or in combination have been described in the literature for the prediction of miscarriage. We performed this systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the best combination of biochemical, ultrasound and demographic markers to predict miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy. The electronic database search included Medline (1946-June 2017), Embase (1980-June 2017), CINAHL (1981-June 2017) and Cochrane library. Key MESH and Boolean terms were used for the search. Data extraction and collection was performed based on the eligibility criteria by two authors independently. Quality assessment of the individual studies was done using QUADAS 2 (Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2: A Revised Tool) and statistical analysis performed using the Cochrane systematic review manager 5.3 and STATA vs.13.0. Due to the diversity of the combinations used for prediction in the included papers it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis on combination markers. Therefore, we proceeded to perform a meta-analysis on ultrasound markers alone to determine the best marker that can help to improve the diagnostic accuracy of predicting miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy. The systematic review identified 18 eligible studies for the quantitative meta-analysis with a total of 5584 women. Among the ultrasound scan markers, fetal bradycardia (n=10 studies, n=1762 women) on hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic showed sensitivity of 68.41%, specificity of 97.84%, positive likelihood ratio of 31.73 (indicating a large effect on increasing the probability of predicting miscarriage) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.32. In studies for women with threatened miscarriage (n=5 studies, n=771 women) fetal bradycardia showed further increase in sensitivity (84.18%) for miscarriage prediction. Although there is gestational age dependent variation in the fetal heart rate, a plot

  12. Breeding Jatropha curcas by genomic selection: A pilot assessment of the accuracy of predictive models.

    PubMed

    Azevedo Peixoto, Leonardo de; Laviola, Bruno Galvêas; Alves, Alexandre Alonso; Rosado, Tatiana Barbosa; Bhering, Leonardo Lopes

    2017-01-01

    Genomic wide selection is a promising approach for improving the selection accuracy in plant breeding, particularly in species with long life cycles, such as Jatropha. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic parameters for grain yield (GY) and the weight of 100 seeds (W100S) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML); to compare the performance of GWS methods to predict GY and W100S; and to estimate how many markers are needed to train the GWS model to obtain the maximum accuracy. Eight GWS models were compared in terms of predictive ability. The impact that the marker density had on the predictive ability was investigated using a varying number of markers, from 2 to 1,248. Because the genetic variance between evaluated genotypes was significant, it was possible to obtain selection gain. All of the GWS methods tested in this study can be used to predict GY and W100S in Jatropha. A training model fitted using 1,000 and 800 markers is sufficient to capture the maximum genetic variance and, consequently, maximum prediction ability of GY and W100S, respectively. This study demonstrated the applicability of genome-wide prediction to identify useful genetic sources of GY and W100S for Jatropha breeding. Further research is needed to confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex traits.

  13. Genome-wide association study and accuracy of genomic prediction for teat number in Duroc pigs using genotyping-by-sequencing.

    PubMed

    Tan, Cheng; Wu, Zhenfang; Ren, Jiangli; Huang, Zhuolin; Liu, Dewu; He, Xiaoyan; Prakapenka, Dzianis; Zhang, Ran; Li, Ning; Da, Yang; Hu, Xiaoxiang

    2017-03-29

    The number of teats in pigs is related to a sow's ability to rear piglets to weaning age. Several studies have identified genes and genomic regions that affect teat number in swine but few common results were reported. The objective of this study was to identify genetic factors that affect teat number in pigs, evaluate the accuracy of genomic prediction, and evaluate the contribution of significant genes and genomic regions to genomic broad-sense heritability and prediction accuracy using 41,108 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genotyping-by-sequencing on 2936 Duroc boars. Narrow-sense heritability and dominance heritability of teat number estimated by genomic restricted maximum likelihood were 0.365 ± 0.030 and 0.035 ± 0.019, respectively. The accuracy of genomic predictions, calculated as the average correlation between the genomic best linear unbiased prediction and phenotype in a tenfold validation study, was 0.437 ± 0.064 for the model with additive and dominance effects and 0.435 ± 0.064 for the model with additive effects only. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using three methods of analysis identified 85 significant SNP effects for teat number on chromosomes 1, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12 and 14. The region between 102.9 and 106.0 Mb on chromosome 7, which was reported in several studies, had the most significant SNP effects in or near the PTGR2, FAM161B, LIN52, VRTN, FCF1, AREL1 and LRRC74A genes. This region accounted for 10.0% of the genomic additive heritability and 8.0% of the accuracy of prediction. The second most significant chromosome region not reported by previous GWAS was the region between 77.7 and 79.7 Mb on chromosome 11, where SNPs in the FGF14 gene had the most significant effect and accounted for 5.1% of the genomic additive heritability and 5.2% of the accuracy of prediction. The 85 significant SNPs accounted for 28.5 to 28.8% of the genomic additive heritability and 35.8 to 36.8% of the accuracy of

  14. Accuracy of Genomic Prediction in Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) Improved by Accounting for Linkage Disequilibrium

    PubMed Central

    Ramstein, Guillaume P.; Evans, Joseph; Kaeppler, Shawn M.; Mitchell, Robert B.; Vogel, Kenneth P.; Buell, C. Robin; Casler, Michael D.

    2016-01-01

    Switchgrass is a relatively high-yielding and environmentally sustainable biomass crop, but further genetic gains in biomass yield must be achieved to make it an economically viable bioenergy feedstock. Genomic selection (GS) is an attractive technology to generate rapid genetic gains in switchgrass, and meet the goals of a substantial displacement of petroleum use with biofuels in the near future. In this study, we empirically assessed prediction procedures for genomic selection in two different populations, consisting of 137 and 110 half-sib families of switchgrass, tested in two locations in the United States for three agronomic traits: dry matter yield, plant height, and heading date. Marker data were produced for the families’ parents by exome capture sequencing, generating up to 141,030 polymorphic markers with available genomic-location and annotation information. We evaluated prediction procedures that varied not only by learning schemes and prediction models, but also by the way the data were preprocessed to account for redundancy in marker information. More complex genomic prediction procedures were generally not significantly more accurate than the simplest procedure, likely due to limited population sizes. Nevertheless, a highly significant gain in prediction accuracy was achieved by transforming the marker data through a marker correlation matrix. Our results suggest that marker-data transformations and, more generally, the account of linkage disequilibrium among markers, offer valuable opportunities for improving prediction procedures in GS. Some of the achieved prediction accuracies should motivate implementation of GS in switchgrass breeding programs. PMID:26869619

  15. Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Malinowski, Kathleen T.; Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; McAvoy, Thomas J.

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor-surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor-surrogate correlation and the precisionmore » in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor-surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3-3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.« less

  16. Influence of stimulated Brillouin scattering on positioning accuracy of long-range dual Mach-Zehnder interferometric vibration sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xiangge; Xie, Shangran; Cao, Shan; Liu, Fei; Zheng, Xiaoping; Zhang, Min; Yan, Han; Chen, Guocai

    2016-11-01

    The properties of noise induced by stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) in long-range interferometers and their influences on the positioning accuracy of dual Mach-Zehnder interferometric (DMZI) vibration sensing systems are studied. The SBS noise is found to be white and incoherent between the two arms of the interferometer in a 1-MHz bandwidth range. Experiments on 25-km long fibers show that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the positioning accuracy is consistent with the additive noise model for the time delay estimation theory. A low-pass filter can be properly designed to suppress the SBS noise and further achieve a maximum RMSE reduction of 6.7 dB.

  17. Determining predictability and accuracy of thermal and electrical dental pulp tests: An in vivo study.

    PubMed

    Salgar, Avinash Ramchandra; Singh, Shishir H; Podar, Rajesh S; Kulkarni, Gaurav P; Babel, Shashank N

    2017-01-01

    Pulp sensitivity testing, even with its limitations and shortcomings, has been and still remains a very helpful aid in endodontic diagnosis. Pulp sensitivity tests extrapolate pulpal health from the sensory response. The aim of the present study was to identify the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (NPVs) of thermal and electrical tests of pulp sensitivity. Pulp tests studied were two cold and heat tests respectively and electrical test. A total of 330 teeth were tested: 198 teeth with vital pulp and 132 teeth with necrotic pulps (disease prevalence of 40%). The ideal standard was established by observing bleeding within the pulp chamber. Sensitivity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.89 and 0.94 for cold test, 0.84 and 0.87 for the heat tests, and 0.75 for electrical pulp test and the specificity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.91 and 0.93 for the cold tests, 0.86 and 0.84 for the heat tests, and 0.90 for electrical pulp test. The NPVs were 0.91 and 0.96 for the cold tests, 0.89 and 0.91 for the heat tests, and 0.84 for electrical pulp test. The positive predictive values were 0.89 and 0.90 for the cold tests, 0.80 and 0.79 for the heat tests and 0.88 for electrical pulp test. The highest accuracy (0.9393) was observed with cold test (icy spray). The cold test done with icy spray was the most accurate method for sensitivity testing.

  18. Ontario multidetector computed tomographic coronary angiography study: field evaluation of diagnostic accuracy.

    PubMed

    Chow, Benjamin J W; Freeman, Michael R; Bowen, James M; Levin, Leslie; Hopkins, Robert B; Provost, Yves; Tarride, Jean-Eric; Dennie, Carole; Cohen, Eric A; Marcuzzi, Dan; Iwanochko, Robert; Moody, Alan R; Paul, Narinder; Parker, John D; O'Reilly, Daria J; Xie, Feng; Goeree, Ron

    2011-06-13

    Computed tomographic coronary angiography (CTCA) has gained clinical acceptance for the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease. Although single-center studies have demonstrated excellent accuracy, multicenter studies have yielded variable results. The true diagnostic accuracy of CTCA in the "real world" remains uncertain. We conducted a field evaluation comparing multidetector CTCA with invasive CA (ICA) to understand CTCA's diagnostic accuracy in a real-world setting. A multicenter cohort study of patients awaiting ICA was conducted between September 2006 and June 2009. All patients had either a low or an intermediate pretest probability for coronary artery disease and underwent CTCA and ICA within 10 days. The results of CTCA and ICA were interpreted visually by local expert observers who were blinded to all clinical data and imaging results. Using a patient-based analysis (diameter stenosis ≥50%) of 169 patients, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 81.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 71.0%-89.1%), 93.3% (95% CI, 85.9%-97.5%), 91.6% (95% CI, 82.5%-96.8%), and 84.7% (95% CI, 76.0%-91.2%), respectively; the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.873. The diagnostic accuracy varied across centers (P < .001), with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value ranging from 50.0% to 93.2%, 92.0% to 100%, 84.6% to 100%, and 42.9% to 94.7%, respectively. Compared with ICA, CTCA appears to have good accuracy; however, there was variability in diagnostic accuracy across centers. Factors affecting institutional variability need to be better understood before CTCA is universally adopted. Additional real-world evaluations are needed to fully understand the impact of CTCA on clinical care. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00371891.

  19. Three-dimensional virtual planning in orthognathic surgery enhances the accuracy of soft tissue prediction.

    PubMed

    Van Hemelen, Geert; Van Genechten, Maarten; Renier, Lieven; Desmedt, Maria; Verbruggen, Elric; Nadjmi, Nasser

    2015-07-01

    Throughout the history of computing, shortening the gap between the physical and digital world behind the screen has always been strived for. Recent advances in three-dimensional (3D) virtual surgery programs have reduced this gap significantly. Although 3D assisted surgery is now widely available for orthognathic surgery, one might still argue whether a 3D virtual planning approach is a better alternative to a conventional two-dimensional (2D) planning technique. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of a traditional 2D technique and a 3D computer-aided prediction method. A double blind randomised prospective study was performed to compare the prediction accuracy of a traditional 2D planning technique versus a 3D computer-aided planning approach. The accuracy of the hard and soft tissue profile predictions using both planning methods was investigated. There was a statistically significant difference between 2D and 3D soft tissue planning (p < 0.05). The statistically significant difference found between 2D and 3D planning and the actual soft tissue outcome was not confirmed by a statistically significant difference between methods. The 3D planning approach provides more accurate soft tissue planning. However, the 2D orthognathic planning is comparable to 3D planning when it comes to hard tissue planning. This study provides relevant results for choosing between 3D and 2D planning in clinical practice. Copyright © 2015 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Diagnostic accuracy of tuberculous lymphadenitis fine needle aspiration biopsy confirmed by PCR as gold standard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DSuryadi; Delyuzar; Soekimin

    2018-03-01

    Indonesia is the second country with the TB (tuberculosis) burden in the world. Improvement in controlling TB and reducing the complications can accelerate early diagnosis and correct treatment. PCR test is a gold standard. However, it is quite expensive for routine diagnosis. Therefore, an accurate and cheaper diagnostic method such as fine needle aspiration biopsy is needed. The study aimsto determine the accuracy of fine needle aspiration biopsy cytology in the diagnosis of tuberculous lymphadenitis. A cross-sectional analytic study was conducted to the samples from patients suspected with tuberculous lymphadenitis. The fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB)test was performed and confirmed by PCR test.There is a comparison to the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of both methods. Sensitivity (92.50%), specificity (96.49%), accuracy (94.85%), positive predictive value (94.87%) and negative predictive value (94.83%) were in FNAB test compared to gold standard. We concluded that fine needle aspiration biopsy is a recommendation for a cheaper and accurate diagnostic test for tuberculous lymphadenitis diagnosis.

  1. PREDICT: a diagnostic accuracy study of a tool for predicting mortality within one year: who should have an advance healthcare directive?

    PubMed

    Richardson, Philip; Greenslade, Jaimi; Shanmugathasan, Sulochana; Doucet, Katherine; Widdicombe, Neil; Chu, Kevin; Brown, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    CARING is a screening tool developed to identify patients who have a high likelihood of death in 1 year. This study sought to validate a modified CARING tool (termed PREDICT) using a population of patients presenting to the Emergency Department. In total, 1000 patients aged over 55 years who were admitted to hospital via the Emergency Department between January and June 2009 were eligible for inclusion in this study. Data on the six prognostic indicators comprising PREDICT were obtained retrospectively from patient records. One-year mortality data were obtained from the State Death Registry. Weights were applied to each PREDICT criterion, and its final score ranged from 0 to 44. Receiver operator characteristic analyses and diagnostic accuracy statistics were used to assess the accuracy of PREDICT in identifying 1-year mortality. The sample comprised 976 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 71 years (62-81 years) and a 1-year mortality of 23.4%. In total, 50% had ≥1 PREDICT criteria with a 1-year mortality of 40.4%. Receiver operator characteristic analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.89). Using a cut-off of 13 points, PREDICT had a 95.3% (95% confidence interval: 93.6-96.6) specificity and 53.9% (95% confidence interval: 47.5-60.3) sensitivity for predicting 1-year mortality. PREDICT was simpler than the CARING criteria and identified 158 patients per 1000 admitted who could benefit from advance care planning. PREDICT was successfully applied to the Australian healthcare system with findings similar to the original CARING study conducted in the United States. This tool could improve end-of-life care by identifying who should have advance care planning or an advance healthcare directive. © The Author(s) 2014.

  2. How Nonrecidivism Affects Predictive Accuracy: Evidence from a Cross-Validation of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilton, N. Zoe; Harris, Grant T.

    2009-01-01

    Prediction effect sizes such as ROC area are important for demonstrating a risk assessment's generalizability and utility. How a study defines recidivism might affect predictive accuracy. Nonrecidivism is problematic when predicting specialized violence (e.g., domestic violence). The present study cross-validates the ability of the Ontario…

  3. Accuracy of the prostate health index versus the urinary prostate cancer antigen 3 score to predict overall and significant prostate cancer at initial biopsy.

    PubMed

    Seisen, Thomas; Rouprêt, Morgan; Brault, Didier; Léon, Priscilla; Cancel-Tassin, Géraldine; Compérat, Eva; Renard-Penna, Raphaële; Mozer, Pierre; Guechot, Jérome; Cussenot, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    It remains unclear whether the Prostate Health Index (PHI) or the urinary Prostate-Cancer Antigen 3 (PCA-3) score is more accurate at screening for prostate cancer (PCa). The aim of this study was to prospectively compare the accuracy of PHI and PCA-3 scores to predict overall and significant PCa in men undergoing an initial prostate biopsy. Double-blind assessments of PHI and PCA-3 were conducted by referent physicians in 138 patients who subsequently underwent trans-rectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy according to a 12-core scheme. Predictive accuracies of PHI and PCA-3 were assessed using AUC and compared according to the DeLong method. Diagnostic performances with usual cut-off values for positivity (i.e., PHI >40 and PCA-3 >35) were calculated, and odds ratios associated with predicting PCa overall and significant PCa as defined by pathological updated Epstein criteria (i.e., Gleason score ≥7, more than three positive cores, or >50% cancer involvement in any core) were estimated using logistic regression. Prevalences of overall and significant PCa were 44.9% and 28.3%, respectively. PCA-3 (AUC = 0.71) was the most accurate predictor of PCa overall, and significantly outperformed PHI (AUC = 0.65; P = 0.03). However, PHI (AUC = 0.80) remained the most accurate predictor when screening exclusively for significant PCa and significantly outperformed PCA-3 (AUC = 0.55; P = 0.03). Furthermore, PCA-3 >35 had the best accuracy, and positive or negative predictive values when screening for PCa overall whereas these diagnostic performances were greater for PHI >40 when exclusively screening for significant PCa. PHI > 40 combined with PCA-3 > 35 was more specific in both cases. In multivariate analyses, PCA-3 >35 (OR = 5.68; 95%CI = [2.21-14.59]; P < 0.001) was significantly correlated with the presence of PCa overall, but PHI >40 (OR = 9.60; 95%CI = [1.72-91.32]; P = 0.001) was the only independent predictor

  4. Heart imaging: the accuracy of the 64-MSCT in the detection of coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Alessandri, N; Di Matteo, A; Rondoni, G; Petrassi, M; Tufani, F; Ferrari, R; Laghi, A

    2009-01-01

    %). In Gr. B, 32% of the segments have shown a coronary stenosis (33% stenoses >75%, 29% stenoses 50-75% and 38% stenoses <50%). In-stent disease has been shown in only 4 of the 29 coronary stents identified. In Gr. A, coronary 64-MSCT has confirmed the angiographic results in the 93% of cases (sensibility 93%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100% and negative predictive value 83%) while, in Gr. B, this confirm has been obtained only in 64% of cases (sensibility 64%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100% and negative predictive value 50%). In Gr. C, we have observed a complete agreement between angiographic and CT data (sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value 100%). According to a per segment analysis, the angiographic results have been confirmed in 98% of cases in Gr. A (sensibility 98%, specificity 94%, positive predictive value 90% and negative predictive value 94%) but only in 55% of cases in Gr. B (sensibility 55%, specificity 90%, positive predictive value 71% and negative predictive value 81%). Moreover, only 1 of the 4 in-stent restenoses has been detected (sensibility 25%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100% and negative predictive value 77%). Coronary angiography has detected a greater number of coronary stenoses than the 64-MSCT. 64-MSCT has demonstrated better accuracy in the study of coronary vessels wider than 2 mm, while its accuracy is lower for smaller vessels (diameter < 2.5 mm) and for the identification of in-stent restenosis, because there is a reduced image quality for these vessels and therefore a lower accuracy in the coronary stenosis detection. Nevertheless, 64-MSCT shows high accuracy and it can be considered a comparative but not a substitutive exam of the coronary angiography. Several technical limitations of the 64-MSCT are responsible of its lower accuracy versus the conventional coronary angiography, but solving these technical problems could give us a new non

  5. Accuracy and precision of patient positioning for pelvic MR-only radiation therapy using digitally reconstructed radiographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kemppainen, R.; Vaara, T.; Joensuu, T.; Kiljunen, T.

    2018-03-01

    Background and Purpose. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has in recent years emerged as an imaging modality to drive precise contouring of targets and organs at risk in external beam radiation therapy. Moreover, recent advances in MRI enable treatment of cancer without computed tomography (CT) simulation. A commercially available MR-only solution, MRCAT, offers a single-modality approach that provides density information for dose calculation and generation of positioning reference images. We evaluated the accuracy of patient positioning based on MRCAT digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) by comparing to standard CT based workflow. Materials and Methods. Twenty consecutive prostate cancer patients being treated with external beam radiation therapy were included in the study. DRRs were generated for each patient based on the planning CT and MRCAT. The accuracy assessment was performed by manually registering the DRR images to planar kV setup images using bony landmarks. A Bayesian linear mixed effects model was used to separate systematic and random components (inter- and intra-observer variation) in the assessment. In addition, method agreement was assessed using a Bland-Altman analysis. Results. The systematic difference between MRCAT and CT based patient positioning, averaged over the study population, were found to be (mean [95% CI])  -0.49 [-0.85 to  -0.13] mm, 0.11 [-0.33 to  +0.57] mm and  -0.05 [-0.23 to  +0.36] mm in vertical, longitudinal and lateral directions, respectively. The increases in total random uncertainty were estimated to be below 0.5 mm for all directions, when using MR-only workflow instead of CT. Conclusions. The MRCAT pseudo-CT method provides clinically acceptable accuracy and precision for patient positioning for pelvic radiation therapy based on planar DRR images. Furthermore, due to the reduction of geometric uncertainty, compared to dual-modality workflow, the approach is likely to improve the total

  6. Enhanced Positioning Algorithm of ARPS for Improving Accuracy and Expanding Service Coverage

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Kyuman; Baek, Hoki; Lim, Jaesung

    2016-01-01

    The airborne relay-based positioning system (ARPS), which employs the relaying of navigation signals, was proposed as an alternative positioning system. However, the ARPS has limitations, such as relatively large vertical error and service restrictions, because firstly, the user position is estimated based on airborne relays that are located in one direction, and secondly, the positioning is processed using only relayed navigation signals. In this paper, we propose an enhanced positioning algorithm to improve the performance of the ARPS. The main idea of the enhanced algorithm is the adaptable use of either virtual or direct measurements of reference stations in the calculation process based on the structural features of the ARPS. Unlike the existing two-step algorithm for airborne relay and user positioning, the enhanced algorithm is divided into two cases based on whether the required number of navigation signals for user positioning is met. In the first case, where the number of signals is greater than four, the user first estimates the positions of the airborne relays and its own initial position. Then, the user position is re-estimated by integrating a virtual measurement of a reference station that is calculated using the initial estimated user position and known reference positions. To prevent performance degradation, the re-estimation is performed after determining its requirement through comparing the expected position errors. If the navigation signals are insufficient, such as when the user is outside of airborne relay coverage, the user position is estimated by additionally using direct signal measurements of the reference stations in place of absent relayed signals. The simulation results demonstrate that a higher accuracy level can be achieved because the user position is estimated based on the measurements of airborne relays and a ground station. Furthermore, the service coverage is expanded by using direct measurements of reference stations for user

  7. Enhanced Positioning Algorithm of ARPS for Improving Accuracy and Expanding Service Coverage.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kyuman; Baek, Hoki; Lim, Jaesung

    2016-08-12

    The airborne relay-based positioning system (ARPS), which employs the relaying of navigation signals, was proposed as an alternative positioning system. However, the ARPS has limitations, such as relatively large vertical error and service restrictions, because firstly, the user position is estimated based on airborne relays that are located in one direction, and secondly, the positioning is processed using only relayed navigation signals. In this paper, we propose an enhanced positioning algorithm to improve the performance of the ARPS. The main idea of the enhanced algorithm is the adaptable use of either virtual or direct measurements of reference stations in the calculation process based on the structural features of the ARPS. Unlike the existing two-step algorithm for airborne relay and user positioning, the enhanced algorithm is divided into two cases based on whether the required number of navigation signals for user positioning is met. In the first case, where the number of signals is greater than four, the user first estimates the positions of the airborne relays and its own initial position. Then, the user position is re-estimated by integrating a virtual measurement of a reference station that is calculated using the initial estimated user position and known reference positions. To prevent performance degradation, the re-estimation is performed after determining its requirement through comparing the expected position errors. If the navigation signals are insufficient, such as when the user is outside of airborne relay coverage, the user position is estimated by additionally using direct signal measurements of the reference stations in place of absent relayed signals. The simulation results demonstrate that a higher accuracy level can be achieved because the user position is estimated based on the measurements of airborne relays and a ground station. Furthermore, the service coverage is expanded by using direct measurements of reference stations for user

  8. Predicting Drug-Target Interactions Based on Small Positive Samples.

    PubMed

    Hu, Pengwei; Chan, Keith C C; Hu, Yanxing

    2018-01-01

    A basic task in drug discovery is to find new medication in the form of candidate compounds that act on a target protein. In other words, a drug has to interact with a target and such drug-target interaction (DTI) is not expected to be random. Significant and interesting patterns are expected to be hidden in them. If these patterns can be discovered, new drugs are expected to be more easily discoverable. Currently, a number of computational methods have been proposed to predict DTIs based on their similarity. However, such as approach does not allow biochemical features to be directly considered. As a result, some methods have been proposed to try to discover patterns in physicochemical interactions. Since the number of potential negative DTIs are very high both in absolute terms and in comparison to that of the known ones, these methods are rather computationally expensive and they can only rely on subsets, rather than the full set, of negative DTIs for training and validation. As there is always a relatively high chance for negative DTIs to be falsely identified and as only partial subset of such DTIs is considered, existing approaches can be further improved to better predict DTIs. In this paper, we present a novel approach, called ODT (one class drug target interaction prediction), for such purpose. One main task of ODT is to discover association patterns between interacting drugs and proteins from the chemical structure of the former and the protein sequence network of the latter. ODT does so in two phases. First, the DTI-network is transformed to a representation by structural properties. Second, it applies a oneclass classification algorithm to build a prediction model based only on known positive interactions. We compared the best AUROC scores of the ODT with several state-of-art approaches on Gold standard data. The prediction accuracy of the ODT is superior in comparison with all the other methods at GPCRs dataset and Ion channels dataset. Performance

  9. Continuous electroencephalography predicts delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid hemorrhage: A prospective study of diagnostic accuracy.

    PubMed

    Rosenthal, Eric S; Biswal, Siddharth; Zafar, Sahar F; O'Connor, Kathryn L; Bechek, Sophia; Shenoy, Apeksha V; Boyle, Emily J; Shafi, Mouhsin M; Gilmore, Emily J; Foreman, Brandon P; Gaspard, Nicolas; Leslie-Mazwi, Thabele M; Rosand, Jonathan; Hoch, Daniel B; Ayata, Cenk; Cash, Sydney S; Cole, Andrew J; Patel, Aman B; Westover, M Brandon

    2018-04-16

    Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a common, disabling complication of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Preventing DCI is a key focus of neurocritical care, but interventions carry risk and cannot be applied indiscriminately. Although retrospective studies have identified continuous electroencephalographic (cEEG) measures associated with DCI, no study has characterized the accuracy of cEEG with sufficient rigor to justify using it to triage patients to interventions or clinical trials. We therefore prospectively assessed the accuracy of cEEG for predicting DCI, following the Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy Studies. We prospectively performed cEEG in nontraumatic, high-grade SAH patients at a single institution. The index test consisted of clinical neurophysiologists prospectively reporting prespecified EEG alarms: (1) decreasing relative alpha variability, (2) decreasing alpha-delta ratio, (3) worsening focal slowing, or (4) late appearing epileptiform abnormalities. The diagnostic reference standard was DCI determined by blinded, adjudicated review. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity of cEEG for subsequent DCI, determined by multistate survival analysis, adjusted for baseline risk. One hundred three of 227 consecutive patients were eligible and underwent cEEG monitoring (7.7-day mean duration). EEG alarms occurred in 96.2% of patients with and 19.6% without subsequent DCI (1.9-day median latency, interquartile range = 0.9-4.1). Among alarm subtypes, late onset epileptiform abnormalities had the highest predictive value. Prespecified EEG findings predicted DCI among patients with low (91% sensitivity, 83% specificity) and high (95% sensitivity, 77% specificity) baseline risk. cEEG accurately predicts DCI following SAH and may help target therapies to patients at highest risk of secondary brain injury. Ann Neurol 2018. © 2018 American Neurological Association.

  10. Accuracy of an acoustic location system for monitoring the position of duetting songbirds in tropical forest

    PubMed Central

    Mennill, Daniel J.; Burt, John M.; Fristrup, Kurt M.; Vehrencamp, Sandra L.

    2008-01-01

    A field test was conducted on the accuracy of an eight-microphone acoustic location system designed to triangulate the position of duetting rufous-and-white wrens (Thryothorus rufalbus) in Costa Rica’s humid evergreen forest. Eight microphones were set up in the breeding territories of twenty pairs of wrens, with an average inter-microphone distance of 75.2±2.6 m. The array of microphones was used to record antiphonal duets broadcast through stereo loudspeakers. The positions of the loudspeakers were then estimated by evaluating the delay with which the eight microphones recorded the broadcast sounds. Position estimates were compared to coordinates surveyed with a global-positioning system (GPS). The acoustic location system estimated the position of loudspeakers with an error of 2.82±0.26 m and calculated the distance between the “male” and “female” loudspeakers with an error of 2.12±0.42 m. Given the large range of distances between duetting birds, this relatively low level of error demonstrates that the acoustic location system is a useful tool for studying avian duets. Location error was influenced partly by the difficulties inherent in collecting high accuracy GPS coordinates of microphone positions underneath a lush tropical canopy, and partly by the complicating influence of irregular topography and thick vegetation on sound transmission. PMID:16708941

  11. Accuracy assessment of the Precise Point Positioning method applied for surveys and tracking moving objects in GIS environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilieva, Tamara; Gekov, Svetoslav

    2017-04-01

    The Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method gives the users the opportunity to determine point locations using a single GNSS receiver. The accuracy of the determined by PPP point locations is better in comparison to the standard point positioning, due to the precise satellite orbit and clock corrections that are developed and maintained by the International GNSS Service (IGS). The aim of our current research is the accuracy assessment of the PPP method applied for surveys and tracking moving objects in GIS environment. The PPP data is collected by using preliminary developed by us software application that allows different sets of attribute data for the measurements and their accuracy to be used. The results from the PPP measurements are directly compared within the geospatial database to different other sets of terrestrial data - measurements obtained by total stations, real time kinematic and static GNSS.

  12. Accuracy of SOFA score in prediction of 30-day outcome of critically ill patients.

    PubMed

    Safari, Saeed; Shojaee, Majid; Rahmati, Farhad; Barartloo, Alireza; Hahshemi, Behrooz; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Mohammadi, Elham

    2016-12-01

    Researchers have attempted to design various scoring systems to determine the severity and predict the outcome of critically ill patients. The present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of SOFA score in predicting 1-month outcome of these patients in emergency department. The present study is a prospective cross-sectional study of >18 year old non-trauma critically ill patients presented to EDs of 3 hospitals, Tehran, Iran, during October 2014 to October 2015. Baseline characteristics, SOFA score variables, and 1-month outcome of patients were recorded and screening performance characteristics of the score were calculated using STATA 11 software. 140 patients with the mean age of 68.36 ± 18.62 years (18-95) were included (53.5% male). The most common complaints were decrease in level of consciousness (76.43%) and sepsis (60.0%), were the most frequent final diagnoses. Mean SOFA score of the patients was 7.13 ± 2.36 (minimum 2 and maximum 16). 72 (51.43%) patients died during the following 30 days and 16 (11.43%) patients were affected with multiple organ failure. Area under the ROC curve of SOFA score in predicting mortality of studied patients was 0.73 (95%CI: 0.65-0.81) (Fig. 2). Table 2 depicts screening performance characteristics of this scale in prediction of 1-month mortality in the best cut-off point of ≥7. At this cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity of SOFA in predicting 1-month mortality were 75% and 63.23%, respectively. Findings of the present study showed that SOFA scoring system has fair accuracy in predicting 1-month mortality of critically ill patients. However, until a more reliable scoring system is developed, SOFA might be useful for narrative prediction of patient outcome considering its acceptable likelihood ratios.

  13. Accuracy of Genomic Prediction in a Commercial Perennial Ryegrass Breeding Program.

    PubMed

    Fè, Dario; Ashraf, Bilal H; Pedersen, Morten G; Janss, Luc; Byrne, Stephen; Roulund, Niels; Lenk, Ingo; Didion, Thomas; Asp, Torben; Jensen, Christian S; Jensen, Just

    2016-11-01

    The implementation of genomic selection (GS) in plant breeding, so far, has been mainly evaluated in crops farmed as homogeneous varieties, and the results have been generally positive. Fewer results are available for species, such as forage grasses, that are grown as heterogenous families (developed from multiparent crosses) in which the control of the genetic variation is far more complex. Here we test the potential for implementing GS in the breeding of perennial ryegrass ( L.) using empirical data from a commercial forage breeding program. Biparental F and multiparental synthetic (SYN) families of diploid perennial ryegrass were genotyped using genotyping-by-sequencing, and phenotypes for five different traits were analyzed. Genotypes were expressed as family allele frequencies, and phenotypes were recorded as family means. Different models for genomic prediction were compared by using practically relevant cross-validation strategies. All traits showed a highly significant level of genetic variance, which could be traced using the genotyping assay. While there was significant genotype × environment (G × E) interaction for some traits, accuracies were high among F families and between biparental F and multiparental SYN families. We have demonstrated that the implementation of GS in grass breeding is now possible and presents an opportunity to make significant gains for various traits. Copyright © 2016 Crop Science Society of America.

  14. Accuracy and efficiency of an infrared based positioning and tracking system for patient set-up and monitoring in image guided radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, Jing; Xu, Gongming; Pei, Xi; Cao, Ruifen; Hu, Liqin; Wu, Yican

    2015-03-01

    An infrared based positioning and tracking (IPT) system was introduced and its accuracy and efficiency for patient setup and monitoring were tested for daily radiotherapy treatment. The IPT system consists of a pair of floor mounted infrared stereoscopic cameras, passive infrared markers and tools used for acquiring localization information as well as a custom controlled software which can perform the positioning and tracking functions. The evaluation of IPT system characteristics was conducted based on the AAPM 147 task report. Experiments on spatial drift and reproducibility as well as static and dynamic localization accuracy were carried out to test the efficiency of the IPT system. Measurements of known translational (up to 55.0 mm) set-up errors in three dimensions have been performed on a calibration phantom. The accuracy of positioning was evaluated on an anthropomorphic phantom with five markers attached to the surface; the precision of the tracking ability was investigated through a sinusoidal motion platform. For the monitoring of the respiration, three volunteers contributed to the breathing testing in real time. The spatial drift of the IPT system was 0.65 mm within 60 min to be stable. The reproducibility of position variations were between 0.01 and 0.04 mm. The standard deviation of static marker localization was 0.26 mm. The repositioning accuracy was 0.19 mm, 0.29 mm, and 0.53 mm in the left/right (L/R), superior/inferior (S/I) and anterior/posterior (A/P) directions, respectively. The measured dynamic accuracy was 0.57 mm and discrepancies measured for the respiratory motion tracking was better than 1 mm. The overall positioning accuracy of the IPT system was within 2 mm. In conclusion, the IPT system is an accurate and effective tool for assisting patient positioning in the treatment room. The characteristics of the IPT system can successfully meet the needs for real time external marker tracking and patient positioning as well as respiration

  15. Impacts of Satellite Orbit and Clock on Real-Time GPS Point and Relative Positioning.

    PubMed

    Shi, Junbo; Wang, Gaojing; Han, Xianquan; Guo, Jiming

    2017-06-12

    Satellite orbit and clock corrections are always treated as known quantities in GPS positioning models. Therefore, any error in the satellite orbit and clock products will probably cause significant consequences for GPS positioning, especially for real-time applications. Currently three types of satellite products have been made available for real-time positioning, including the broadcast ephemeris, the International GNSS Service (IGS) predicted ultra-rapid product, and the real-time product. In this study, these three predicted/real-time satellite orbit and clock products are first evaluated with respect to the post-mission IGS final product, which demonstrates cm to m level orbit accuracies and sub-ns to ns level clock accuracies. Impacts of real-time satellite orbit and clock products on GPS point and relative positioning are then investigated using the P3 and GAMIT software packages, respectively. Numerical results show that the real-time satellite clock corrections affect the point positioning more significantly than the orbit corrections. On the contrary, only the real-time orbit corrections impact the relative positioning. Compared with the positioning solution using the IGS final product with the nominal orbit accuracy of ~2.5 cm, the real-time broadcast ephemeris with ~2 m orbit accuracy provided <2 cm relative positioning error for baselines no longer than 216 km. As for the baselines ranging from 574 to 2982 km, the cm-dm level positioning error was identified for the relative positioning solution using the broadcast ephemeris. The real-time product could result in <5 mm relative positioning accuracy for baselines within 2982 km, slightly better than the predicted ultra-rapid product.

  16. Accuracy of genomic prediction in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) improved by accounting for linkage disequilibrium

    DOE PAGES

    Ramstein, Guillaume P.; Evans, Joseph; Kaeppler, Shawn M.; ...

    2016-02-11

    Switchgrass is a relatively high-yielding and environmentally sustainable biomass crop, but further genetic gains in biomass yield must be achieved to make it an economically viable bioenergy feedstock. Genomic selection (GS) is an attractive technology to generate rapid genetic gains in switchgrass, and meet the goals of a substantial displacement of petroleum use with biofuels in the near future. In this study, we empirically assessed prediction procedures for genomic selection in two different populations, consisting of 137 and 110 half-sib families of switchgrass, tested in two locations in the United States for three agronomic traits: dry matter yield, plant height,more » and heading date. Marker data were produced for the families’ parents by exome capture sequencing, generating up to 141,030 polymorphic markers with available genomic-location and annotation information. We evaluated prediction procedures that varied not only by learning schemes and prediction models, but also by the way the data were preprocessed to account for redundancy in marker information. More complex genomic prediction procedures were generally not significantly more accurate than the simplest procedure, likely due to limited population sizes. Nevertheless, a highly significant gain in prediction accuracy was achieved by transforming the marker data through a marker correlation matrix. Our results suggest that marker-data transformations and, more generally, the account of linkage disequilibrium among markers, offer valuable opportunities for improving prediction procedures in GS. Furthermore, some of the achieved prediction accuracies should motivate implementation of GS in switchgrass breeding programs.« less

  17. Accuracy of genomic prediction in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) improved by accounting for linkage disequilibrium

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ramstein, Guillaume P.; Evans, Joseph; Kaeppler, Shawn M.

    Switchgrass is a relatively high-yielding and environmentally sustainable biomass crop, but further genetic gains in biomass yield must be achieved to make it an economically viable bioenergy feedstock. Genomic selection (GS) is an attractive technology to generate rapid genetic gains in switchgrass, and meet the goals of a substantial displacement of petroleum use with biofuels in the near future. In this study, we empirically assessed prediction procedures for genomic selection in two different populations, consisting of 137 and 110 half-sib families of switchgrass, tested in two locations in the United States for three agronomic traits: dry matter yield, plant height,more » and heading date. Marker data were produced for the families’ parents by exome capture sequencing, generating up to 141,030 polymorphic markers with available genomic-location and annotation information. We evaluated prediction procedures that varied not only by learning schemes and prediction models, but also by the way the data were preprocessed to account for redundancy in marker information. More complex genomic prediction procedures were generally not significantly more accurate than the simplest procedure, likely due to limited population sizes. Nevertheless, a highly significant gain in prediction accuracy was achieved by transforming the marker data through a marker correlation matrix. Our results suggest that marker-data transformations and, more generally, the account of linkage disequilibrium among markers, offer valuable opportunities for improving prediction procedures in GS. Furthermore, some of the achieved prediction accuracies should motivate implementation of GS in switchgrass breeding programs.« less

  18. Accuracy of frozen section in the diagnosis of ovarian tumours.

    PubMed

    Toneva, F; Wright, H; Razvi, K

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of our retrospective study was to assess the accuracy of intraoperative frozen section diagnosis compared to final paraffin diagnosis in ovarian tumours at a gynaecological oncology centre in the UK. We analysed 66 cases and observed that frozen section consultation agreed with final paraffin diagnosis in 59 cases, which provided an accuracy of 89.4%. The overall sensitivity and specificity for all tumours were 85.4% and 100%, respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were 100% and 89.4%, respectively. Of the seven cases with discordant results, the majority were large, mucinous tumours, which is in line with previous studies. Our study demonstrated that despite its limitations, intraoperative frozen section has a high accuracy and sensitivity for assessing ovarian tumours; however, care needs to be taken with large, mucinous tumours.

  19. Reducing patient posture variability using the predicted couch position

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kruijf, Wilhelmus J.M. de, E-mail: kruijf.de.w@bvi.nl; Martens, Rob J.W.

    2015-10-01

    A method is presented in which the couch position is predicted before the treatment instead of obtaining a reference position at the first treatment fraction. This prevents systematic differences in patient posture between preparation and treatment. In literature, only limited data are available on couch positioning. We position our patients at the planned couch position, allowing a small difference between skin marks and lasers, followed by online imaging. For a 3-month period, our standard deviations (mm) in couch position in the vertical, longitudinal, and lateral directions were head and neck—1.6, 2.8, and 2.5; thorax—2.9, 5.5, and 4.5; breast—3.0, 4.1, andmore » 4.0; and pelvis—3.5, 4.0, and 4.7, respectively. We have improved the reproducibility of patient posture in our institute by using the predicted couch position. Our data may serve as a reference for other institutes because the couch position variation is less than that published in literature.« less

  20. Improvement of shallow landslide prediction accuracy using soil parameterisation for a granite area in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M. S.; Onda, Y.; Kim, J. K.

    2015-01-01

    SHALSTAB model applied to shallow landslides induced by rainfall to evaluate soil properties related with the effect of soil depth for a granite area in Jinbu region, Republic of Korea. Soil depth measured by a knocking pole test and two soil parameters from direct shear test (a and b) as well as one soil parameters from a triaxial compression test (c) were collected to determine the input parameters for the model. Experimental soil data were used for the first simulation (Case I) and, soil data represented the effect of measured soil depth and average soil depth from soil data of Case I were used in the second (Case II) and third simulations (Case III), respectively. All simulations were analysed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine the accuracy of prediction. ROC analysis results for first simulation showed the low ROC values under 0.75 may be due to the internal friction angle and particularly the cohesion value. Soil parameters calculated from a stochastic hydro-geomorphological model were applied to the SHALSTAB model. The accuracy of Case II and Case III using ROC analysis showed higher accuracy values rather than first simulation. Our results clearly demonstrate that the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction can be improved when soil parameters represented the effect of soil thickness.

  1. The use of genomic information increases the accuracy of breeding value predictions for sea louse (Caligus rogercresseyi) resistance in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

    PubMed

    Correa, Katharina; Bangera, Rama; Figueroa, René; Lhorente, Jean P; Yáñez, José M

    2017-01-31

    Sea lice infestations caused by Caligus rogercresseyi are a main concern to the salmon farming industry due to associated economic losses. Resistance to this parasite was shown to have low to moderate genetic variation and its genetic architecture was suggested to be polygenic. The aim of this study was to compare accuracies of breeding value predictions obtained with pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (P-BLUP) methodology against different genomic prediction approaches: genomic BLUP (G-BLUP), Bayesian Lasso, and Bayes C. To achieve this, 2404 individuals from 118 families were measured for C. rogercresseyi count after a challenge and genotyped using 37 K single nucleotide polymorphisms. Accuracies were assessed using fivefold cross-validation and SNP densities of 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 25 and 37 K. Accuracy of genomic predictions increased with increasing SNP density and was higher than pedigree-based BLUP predictions by up to 22%. Both Bayesian and G-BLUP methods can predict breeding values with higher accuracies than pedigree-based BLUP, however, G-BLUP may be the preferred method because of reduced computation time and ease of implementation. A relatively low marker density (i.e. 10 K) is sufficient for maximal increase in accuracy when using G-BLUP or Bayesian methods for genomic prediction of C. rogercresseyi resistance in Atlantic salmon.

  2. PREDICTIVE ACCURACY OF TRANSCEREBELLAR DIAMETER IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER FOETAL BIOMETRIC PARAMETERS FOR GESTATIONAL AGE ESTIMATION AMONG PREGNANT NIGERIAN WOMEN.

    PubMed

    Adeyekun, A A; Orji, M O

    2014-04-01

    To compare the predictive accuracy of foetal trans-cerebellar diameter (TCD) with those of other biometric parameters in the estimation of gestational age (GA). A cross-sectional study. The University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Nigeria. Four hundred and fifty healthy singleton pregnant women, between 14-42 weeks gestation. Trans-cerebellar diameter (TCD), biparietal diameter (BPD), femur length (FL), abdominal circumference (AC) values across the gestational age range studied. Correlation and predictive values of TCD compared to those of other biometric parameters. The range of values for TCD was 11.9 - 59.7mm (mean = 34.2 ± 14.1mm). TCD correlated more significantly with menstrual age compared with other biometric parameters (r = 0.984, p = 0.000). TCD had a higher predictive accuracy of 96.9% ± 12 days), BPD (93.8% ± 14.1 days). AC (92.7% ± 15.3 days). TCD has a stronger predictive accuracy for gestational age compared to other routinely used foetal biometric parameters among Nigerian Africans.

  3. Point-of-care ultrasound versus auscultation in determining the position of double-lumen tube

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Wei-Cai; Xu, Lei; Zhang, Quan; Wei, Li; Zhang, Wei

    2018-01-01

    Abstract This study was designed to assess the accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound in determining the position of double-lumen tubes (DLTs). A total of 103 patients who required DLT intubation were enrolled into the study. After DLTs were tracheal intubated in the supine position, an auscultation researcher and ultrasound researcher were sequentially invited in the operating room to conduct their evaluation of the DLT. After the end of their evaluation, fiberscope researchers (FRs) were invited in the operating room to evaluate the position of DLT using a fiberscope. After the patients were changed to the lateral position, the same evaluation process was repeated. These 3 researchers were blind to each other when they made their conclusions. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were obtained by statistical analysis. When left DLTs (LDLTs) were used, the accuracy of ultrasound (84.2% [72.1%, 92.5%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (59.7% [45.8%, 72.4%]) (P < .01). When right DLTs (RDLTs) were used, the accuracy of ultrasound (89.1% [76.4%, 96.4%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (67.4% [52.0%, 80.5%]) (P < .01). When LDLTs were used in the lateral position, the accuracy of ultrasound (75.4% [62.2%, 85.9%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (54.4% [40.7%, 67.6%]) (P < .05). When RDLT were used, the accuracy of ultrasound (73.9% [58.9%, 85.7%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (47.8% [32.9%, 63.1%]) (P < .05). Assessment via point-of-care ultrasound is superior to auscultation in determining the position of DLTs. PMID:29595696

  4. Point-of-care ultrasound versus auscultation in determining the position of double-lumen tube.

    PubMed

    Hu, Wei-Cai; Xu, Lei; Zhang, Quan; Wei, Li; Zhang, Wei

    2018-03-01

    This study was designed to assess the accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound in determining the position of double-lumen tubes (DLTs).A total of 103 patients who required DLT intubation were enrolled into the study. After DLTs were tracheal intubated in the supine position, an auscultation researcher and ultrasound researcher were sequentially invited in the operating room to conduct their evaluation of the DLT. After the end of their evaluation, fiberscope researchers (FRs) were invited in the operating room to evaluate the position of DLT using a fiberscope. After the patients were changed to the lateral position, the same evaluation process was repeated. These 3 researchers were blind to each other when they made their conclusions. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were obtained by statistical analysis.When left DLTs (LDLTs) were used, the accuracy of ultrasound (84.2% [72.1%, 92.5%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (59.7% [45.8%, 72.4%]) (P < .01). When right DLTs (RDLTs) were used, the accuracy of ultrasound (89.1% [76.4%, 96.4%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (67.4% [52.0%, 80.5%]) (P < .01). When LDLTs were used in the lateral position, the accuracy of ultrasound (75.4% [62.2%, 85.9%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (54.4% [40.7%, 67.6%]) (P < .05). When RDLT were used, the accuracy of ultrasound (73.9% [58.9%, 85.7%]) was higher than the accuracy of auscultation (47.8% [32.9%, 63.1%]) (P < .05).Assessment via point-of-care ultrasound is superior to auscultation in determining the position of DLTs.

  5. Determination of GPS orbits to submeter accuracy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bertiger, W. I.; Lichten, S. M.; Katsigris, E. C.

    1988-01-01

    Orbits for satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) were determined with submeter accuracy. Tests used to assess orbital accuracy include orbit comparisons from independent data sets, orbit prediction, ground baseline determination, and formal errors. One satellite tracked 8 hours each day shows rms error below 1 m even when predicted more than 3 days outside of a 1-week data arc. Differential tracking of the GPS satellites in high Earth orbit provides a powerful relative positioning capability, even when a relatively small continental U.S. fiducial tracking network is used with less than one-third of the full GPS constellation. To demonstrate this capability, baselines of up to 2000 km in North America were also determined with the GPS orbits. The 2000 km baselines show rms daily repeatability of 0.3 to 2 parts in 10 to the 8th power and agree with very long base interferometry (VLBI) solutions at the level of 1.5 parts in 10 to the 8th power. This GPS demonstration provides an opportunity to test different techniques for high-accuracy orbit determination for high Earth orbiters. The best GPS orbit strategies included data arcs of at least 1 week, process noise models for tropospheric fluctuations, estimation of GPS solar pressure coefficients, and combine processing of GPS carrier phase and pseudorange data. For data arc of 2 weeks, constrained process noise models for GPS dynamic parameters significantly improved the situation.

  6. Accuracy and Predictability of PANC-3 Scoring System over APACHE II in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Rathnakar, Surag Kajoor; Vishnu, Vikram Hubbanageri; Muniyappa, Shridhar; Prasath, Arun

    2017-02-01

    Acute Pancreatitis (AP) is one of the common conditions encountered in the emergency room. The course of the disease ranges from mild form to severe acute form. Most of these episodes are mild and spontaneously subsiding within 3 to 5 days. In contrast, Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) occurring in around 15-20% of all cases, mortality can range between 10 to 85% across various centres and countries. In such a situation we need an indicator which can predict the outcome of an attack, as severe or mild, as early as possible and such an indicator should be sensitive and specific enough to trust upon. PANC-3 scoring is such a scoring system in predicting the outcome of an attack of AP. To assess the accuracy and predictability of PANC-3 scoring system over APACHE II in predicting severity in an attack of AP. This prospective study was conducted on 82 patients admitted with the diagnosis of pancreatitis. Investigations to evaluate PANC-3 and APACHE II were done on all the patients and the PANC-3 and APACHE II score was calculated. PANC-3 score has a sensitivity of 82.6% and specificity of 77.9%, the test had a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.59 and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.92. Sensitivity of APACHE II in predicting SAP was 91.3% and specificity was 96.6% with PPV of 0.91, NPV was 0.96. Our study shows that PANC-3 can be used to predict the severity of pancreatitis as efficiently as APACHE II. The interpretation of PANC-3 does not need expertise and can be applied at the time of admission which is an advantage when compared to classical scoring systems.

  7. Accuracy of Self-Reported Cervical and Breast Cancer Screening by Women with Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Son, Esther; Parish, Susan L.; Swaine, Jamie G.; Luken, Karen

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the accuracy of self-report of cervical and breast cancer screening by women with intellectual disability ("n" ?=? 155). Data from face-to-face interviews and medical records were analyzed. Total agreement, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated. Total…

  8. Predicting phenotype from genotype: Improving accuracy through more robust experimental and computational modeling

    PubMed Central

    Gallion, Jonathan; Koire, Amanda; Katsonis, Panagiotis; Schoenegge, Anne‐Marie; Bouvier, Michel

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Computational prediction yields efficient and scalable initial assessments of how variants of unknown significance may affect human health. However, when discrepancies between these predictions and direct experimental measurements of functional impact arise, inaccurate computational predictions are frequently assumed as the source. Here, we present a methodological analysis indicating that shortcomings in both computational and biological data can contribute to these disagreements. We demonstrate that incomplete assaying of multifunctional proteins can affect the strength of correlations between prediction and experiments; a variant's full impact on function is better quantified by considering multiple assays that probe an ensemble of protein functions. Additionally, many variants predictions are sensitive to protein alignment construction and can be customized to maximize relevance of predictions to a specific experimental question. We conclude that inconsistencies between computation and experiment can often be attributed to the fact that they do not test identical hypotheses. Aligning the design of the computational input with the design of the experimental output will require cooperation between computational and biological scientists, but will also lead to improved estimations of computational prediction accuracy and a better understanding of the genotype–phenotype relationship. PMID:28230923

  9. Predicting phenotype from genotype: Improving accuracy through more robust experimental and computational modeling.

    PubMed

    Gallion, Jonathan; Koire, Amanda; Katsonis, Panagiotis; Schoenegge, Anne-Marie; Bouvier, Michel; Lichtarge, Olivier

    2017-05-01

    Computational prediction yields efficient and scalable initial assessments of how variants of unknown significance may affect human health. However, when discrepancies between these predictions and direct experimental measurements of functional impact arise, inaccurate computational predictions are frequently assumed as the source. Here, we present a methodological analysis indicating that shortcomings in both computational and biological data can contribute to these disagreements. We demonstrate that incomplete assaying of multifunctional proteins can affect the strength of correlations between prediction and experiments; a variant's full impact on function is better quantified by considering multiple assays that probe an ensemble of protein functions. Additionally, many variants predictions are sensitive to protein alignment construction and can be customized to maximize relevance of predictions to a specific experimental question. We conclude that inconsistencies between computation and experiment can often be attributed to the fact that they do not test identical hypotheses. Aligning the design of the computational input with the design of the experimental output will require cooperation between computational and biological scientists, but will also lead to improved estimations of computational prediction accuracy and a better understanding of the genotype-phenotype relationship. © 2017 The Authors. **Human Mutation published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Accuracy in GPS/Acoustic positioning on a moored buoy moving around far from the optimal position

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imano, M.; Kido, M.; Ohta, Y.; Takahashi, N.; Fukuda, T.; Ochi, H.; Hino, R.

    2015-12-01

    For detecting the seafloor crustal deformation and Tsunami associated with large earthquakes in real-time, it is necessary to monitor them just above the possible source region. For this purpose, we have been dedicated in developing a real-time continuous observation system using a multi-purpose moored buoy. Sea-trials of the system have been carried out near the Nanakai trough in 2013 and 2014 (Takahashi et al., 2014). We especially focused on the GPS/Acoustic measurement (GPS/A) in the system for horizontal crustal movement. The GPS/A on a moored buoy has a critical drawback compared to the traditional ones, in which the data can be stacked over ranging points fixed at an optimal position. Accuracy in positioning with a single ranging from an arbitrary point is the subject to be improved in this study. Here, we report the positioning results in the buoy system using data in the 2014 sea-trial and demonstrate the improvement of the result. We also address the potential resolving power in the positioning using synthetic tests. The target GPS/A site consists of six seafloor transponders (PXPs) forming a small inner- and a large outer-triangles. The bottom of the moored cable is anchored nearly the center of the triangles. In the sea-trial, 11 times successive ranging was scheduled once a week, and we plotted positioning results from different buoy position. We confirmed that scatter in positioning using six PXPs simultaneously is ten times smaller than that using individual triangle separately. Next, we modified the definition of the PXP array geometry using data obtained in a campaign observation. Definition of an array geometry is insensitive as far as ranging is made in the same position, however, severely affects the positioning when ranging is made from various positions like the moored buoy. The modified PXP array is slightly smaller and 2m deeper than the original one. We found that the scatter of positioning results in the sea-trial is reduced from 4m to 1

  11. Accuracy of relative positioning by interferometry with GPS Double-blind test results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Counselman, C. C., III; Gourevitch, S. A.; Herring, T. A.; King, B. W.; Shapiro, I. I.; Cappallo, R. J.; Rogers, A. E. E.; Whitney, A. R.; Greenspan, R. L.; Snyder, R. E.

    1983-01-01

    MITES (Miniature Interferometer Terminals for Earth Surveying) observations conducted on December 17 and 29, 1980, are analyzed. It is noted that the time span of the observations used on each day was 78 minutes, during which five satellites were always above 20 deg elevation. The observations are analyzed to determine the intersite position vectors by means of the algorithm described by Couselman and Gourevitch (1981). The average of the MITES results from the two days is presented. The rms differences between the two determinations of the components of the three vectors, which were about 65, 92, and 124 m long, were 8 mm for the north, 3 mm for the east, and 6 mm for the vertical. It is concluded that, at least for short distances, relative positioning by interferometry with GPS can be done reliably with subcentimeter accuracy.

  12. The accuracy of the SONOBREAST statistical model in comparison to BI-RADS for the prediction of malignancy in solid breast nodules detected at ultrasonography.

    PubMed

    Paulinelli, Regis R; Oliveira, Luis-Fernando P; Freitas-Junior, Ruffo; Soares, Leonardo R

    2016-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to compare the accuracy of SONOBREAST for the prediction of malignancy in solid breast nodules detected at ultrasonography with that of the BI-RADS system and to assess the agreement between these two methods. This prospective study included 274 women and evaluated 500 breast nodules detected at ultrasonography. The probability of malignancy was calculated based on the SONOBREAST model, available at www.sonobreast.com.br, and on the BI-RADS system, with results being compared with the anatomopathology report. The lesions were considered suspect in 171 cases (34.20%), according to both SONOBREAST and BI-RADS. Agreement between the methods was perfect, as shown by a Kappa coefficient of 1 (p<0.001). SONOBREAST and BI-RADS proved identical insofar as sensitivity (95.40%), specificity (78.69%), positive predictive value (48.54%), negative predictive value (98.78%) and accuracy (81.60%) are concerned. With respect to the categorical variables (BI-RADS categories 3, 4 and 5), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 94.41 for SONOBREAST (range 92.20-96.62) and 89.99 for BI-RADS (range 86.60-93.37). The accuracy of the SONOBREAST model is identical to that found with BI-RADS when the same parameters are used with respect to the cut-off point at which malignancy is suspected. Regarding the continuous probability of malignancy with BI-RADS categories 3, 4 and 5, SONOBREAST permits a more precise and individualized evaluation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Systematic Calibration for Ultra-High Accuracy Inertial Measurement Units.

    PubMed

    Cai, Qingzhong; Yang, Gongliu; Song, Ningfang; Liu, Yiliang

    2016-06-22

    An inertial navigation system (INS) has been widely used in challenging GPS environments. With the rapid development of modern physics, an atomic gyroscope will come into use in the near future with a predicted accuracy of 5 × 10(-6)°/h or better. However, existing calibration methods and devices can not satisfy the accuracy requirements of future ultra-high accuracy inertial sensors. In this paper, an improved calibration model is established by introducing gyro g-sensitivity errors, accelerometer cross-coupling errors and lever arm errors. A systematic calibration method is proposed based on a 51-state Kalman filter and smoother. Simulation results show that the proposed calibration method can realize the estimation of all the parameters using a common dual-axis turntable. Laboratory and sailing tests prove that the position accuracy in a five-day inertial navigation can be improved about 8% by the proposed calibration method. The accuracy can be improved at least 20% when the position accuracy of the atomic gyro INS can reach a level of 0.1 nautical miles/5 d. Compared with the existing calibration methods, the proposed method, with more error sources and high order small error parameters calibrated for ultra-high accuracy inertial measurement units (IMUs) using common turntables, has a great application potential in future atomic gyro INSs.

  14. The diagnostic accuracy of the rapid dipstick test to predict asymptomatic urinary tract infection of pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Eigbefoh, J O; Isabu, P; Okpere, E; Abebe, J

    2008-07-01

    Untreated urinary tract infection can have devastating maternal and neonatal effects. Thus, routine screening for bacteriuria is advocated. This study was designed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the rapid dipstick test to predict urinary tract infection in pregnancy with the gold standard of urine microscopy, culture and sensitivity acting as the control. The urine dipstick test uses the leucocyte esterase, nitrite and test for protein singly and in combination. The result of the dipstick was compared with the gold standard, urine microscopy, culture and sensitivity using confidence interval for proportions. The reliability and validity of the urine dipstick was also evaluated. Overall, the urine dipstick test has a poor correlation with urine culture (p = 0.125, CI 95%). The same holds true for individual components of the dipstick test. The overall sensitivity of the urine dipstick test was poor at 2.3%. Individual sensitivity of the various components varied between 9.1% for leucocyte esterase and the nitrite test to 56.8% for leucocyte esterase alone. The other components of the dipstick test, the test of nitrite, test for protein and combination of the test (leucocyte esterase, nitrite and proteinuria) appear to decrease the sensitivity of the leucocyte esterase test alone. The ability of the urine dipstick test to correctly rule out urinary tract infection (specificity) was high. The positive predictive value for the dipstick test was high, with the leucocyte esterase test having the highest positive predictive value compared with the other components of the dipstick test. The negative predictive value (NPV) was expectedly highest for the leucocyte esterase test alone with values higher than the other components of the urine dipstick test singly and in various combinations. Compared with the other parameters of the urine dipstick test, singly and in combination, leucocyte esterase appears to be the most accurate (90.25%). The dipstick test has a

  15. Quantifying and comparing dynamic predictive accuracy of joint models for longitudinal marker and time-to-event in presence of censoring and competing risks.

    PubMed

    Blanche, Paul; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Loubère, Lucie; Berr, Claudine; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

    2015-03-01

    Thanks to the growing interest in personalized medicine, joint modeling of longitudinal marker and time-to-event data has recently started to be used to derive dynamic individual risk predictions. Individual predictions are called dynamic because they are updated when information on the subject's health profile grows with time. We focus in this work on statistical methods for quantifying and comparing dynamic predictive accuracy of this kind of prognostic models, accounting for right censoring and possibly competing events. Dynamic area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier Score (BS) are used to quantify predictive accuracy. Nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting is used to estimate dynamic curves of AUC and BS as functions of the time at which predictions are made. Asymptotic results are established and both pointwise confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands are derived. Tests are also proposed to compare the dynamic prediction accuracy curves of two prognostic models. The finite sample behavior of the inference procedures is assessed via simulations. We apply the proposed methodology to compare various prediction models using repeated measures of two psychometric tests to predict dementia in the elderly, accounting for the competing risk of death. Models are estimated on the French Paquid cohort and predictive accuracies are evaluated and compared on the French Three-City cohort. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Validity of Teacher-Based Vision Screening and Factors Associated with the Accuracy of Vision Screening in Vietnamese Children.

    PubMed

    Paudel, Prakash; Kovai, Vilas; Naduvilath, Thomas; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit May; Giap, Nguyen Viet

    2016-01-01

    To assess validity of teacher-based vision screening and elicit factors associated with accuracy of vision screening in Vietnam. After brief training, teachers independently measured visual acuity (VA) in 555 children aged 12-15 years in Ba Ria - Vung Tau Province. Teacher VA measurements were compared to those of refractionists. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated for uncorrected VA (UVA) and presenting VA (PVA) 20/40 or worse in either eye. Chi-square, Fisher's exact test and multivariate logistic regression were used to assess factors associated with accuracy of vision screening. Level of significance was set at 5%. Trained teachers in Vietnam demonstrated 86.7% sensitivity, 95.7% specificity, 86.7% positive predictive value and 95.7% negative predictive value in identifying children with visual impairment using the UVA measurement. PVA measurement revealed low accuracy for teachers, which was significantly associated with child's age, sex, spectacle wear and myopic status, but UVA measurement showed no such associations. Better accuracy was achieved in measurement of VA and identification of children with visual impairment using UVA measurement compared to PVA. UVA measurement is recommended for teacher-based vision screening programs.

  17. Multi-Sensor Fusion with Interacting Multiple Model Filter for Improved Aircraft Position Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Taehwan; Lee, Changho; Choi, Sangbang

    2013-01-01

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has decided to adopt Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) as the 21st century standard for navigation. Accordingly, ICAO members have provided an impetus to develop related technology and build sufficient infrastructure. For aviation surveillance with CNS/ATM, Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS), Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), multilateration (MLAT) and wide-area multilateration (WAM) systems are being established. These sensors can track aircraft positions more accurately than existing radar and can compensate for the blind spots in aircraft surveillance. In this paper, we applied a novel sensor fusion method with Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter to GBAS, ADS-B, MLAT, and WAM data in order to improve the reliability of the aircraft position. Results of performance analysis show that the position accuracy is improved by the proposed sensor fusion method with the IMM filter. PMID:23535715

  18. Multi-sensor fusion with interacting multiple model filter for improved aircraft position accuracy.

    PubMed

    Cho, Taehwan; Lee, Changho; Choi, Sangbang

    2013-03-27

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has decided to adopt Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) as the 21st century standard for navigation. Accordingly, ICAO members have provided an impetus to develop related technology and build sufficient infrastructure. For aviation surveillance with CNS/ATM, Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS), Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), multilateration (MLAT) and wide-area multilateration (WAM) systems are being established. These sensors can track aircraft positions more accurately than existing radar and can compensate for the blind spots in aircraft surveillance. In this paper, we applied a novel sensor fusion method with Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter to GBAS, ADS-B, MLAT, and WAM data in order to improve the reliability of the aircraft position. Results of performance analysis show that the position accuracy is improved by the proposed sensor fusion method with the IMM filter.

  19. Positive life events predict salivary cortisol in pregnant women.

    PubMed

    Pluess, Michael; Wurmser, Harald; Buske-Kirschbaum, Angelika; Papousek, Mechthild; Pirke, Karl-Martin; Hellhammer, Dirk; Bolten, Margarete

    2012-08-01

    Maternal stress during pregnancy has been repeatedly associated with problematic child development. According to the fetal programming hypothesis adverse experiences during pregnancy increase maternal cortisol, which is then assumed to exert a negative effect on fetal development. Recent studies in non-pregnant women report significant associations between positive emotionality and low cortisol levels. We tested in a sample of 60 pregnant women whether both negative and positive life events independently predicted third-trimester baseline awakening cortisol levels. While the effect of negative life events proved unrelated positive life events significantly predicted lower cortisol levels. These findings suggest that positive experiences are of relevance regarding maternal morning cortisol levels in pregnancy reflecting a resource with potentially beneficial effects for the mother and the developing fetus. It might be promising for psychological intervention programs to focus on increasing positive experiences of the expecting mother rather than exclusively trying to reduce maternal stress during pregnancy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Mean Expected Error in Prediction of Total Body Water: A True Accuracy Comparison between Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Single Frequency Regression Equations

    PubMed Central

    Abtahi, Shirin; Abtahi, Farhad; Ellegård, Lars; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Bosaeus, Ingvar

    2015-01-01

    For several decades electrical bioimpedance (EBI) has been used to assess body fluid distribution and body composition. Despite the development of several different approaches for assessing total body water (TBW), it remains uncertain whether bioimpedance spectroscopic (BIS) approaches are more accurate than single frequency regression equations. The main objective of this study was to answer this question by calculating the expected accuracy of a single measurement for different EBI methods. The results of this study showed that all methods produced similarly high correlation and concordance coefficients, indicating good accuracy as a method. Even the limits of agreement produced from the Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the performance of single frequency, Sun's prediction equations, at population level was close to the performance of both BIS methods; however, when comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value between the single frequency prediction equations and the BIS methods, a significant difference was obtained, indicating slightly better accuracy for the BIS methods. Despite the higher accuracy of BIS methods over 50 kHz prediction equations at both population and individual level, the magnitude of the improvement was small. Such slight improvement in accuracy of BIS methods is suggested insufficient to warrant their clinical use where the most accurate predictions of TBW are required, for example, when assessing over-fluidic status on dialysis. To reach expected errors below 4-5%, novel and individualized approaches must be developed to improve the accuracy of bioimpedance-based methods for the advent of innovative personalized health monitoring applications. PMID:26137489

  1. Accuracy of risk scales for predicting repeat self-harm and suicide: a multicentre, population-level cohort study using routine clinical data.

    PubMed

    Steeg, Sarah; Quinlivan, Leah; Nowland, Rebecca; Carroll, Robert; Casey, Deborah; Clements, Caroline; Cooper, Jayne; Davies, Linda; Knipe, Duleeka; Ness, Jennifer; O'Connor, Rory C; Hawton, Keith; Gunnell, David; Kapur, Nav

    2018-04-25

    Risk scales are used widely in the management of patients presenting to hospital following self-harm. However, there is evidence that their diagnostic accuracy in predicting repeat self-harm is limited. Their predictive accuracy in population settings, and in identifying those at highest risk of suicide is not known. We compared the predictive accuracy of the Manchester Self-Harm Rule (MSHR), ReACT Self-Harm Rule (ReACT), SAD PERSONS Scale (SPS) and Modified SAD PERSONS Scale (MSPS) in an unselected sample of patients attending hospital following self-harm. Data on 4000 episodes of self-harm presenting to Emergency Departments (ED) between 2010 and 2012 were obtained from four established monitoring systems in England. Episodes were assigned a risk category for each scale and followed up for 6 months. The episode-based repeat rate was 28% (1133/4000) and the incidence of suicide was 0.5% (18/3962). The MSHR and ReACT performed with high sensitivity (98% and 94% respectively) and low specificity (15% and 23%). The SPS and the MSPS performed with relatively low sensitivity (24-29% and 9-12% respectively) and high specificity (76-77% and 90%). The area under the curve was 71% for both MSHR and ReACT, 51% for SPS and 49% for MSPS. Differences in predictive accuracy by subgroup were small. The scales were less accurate at predicting suicide than repeat self-harm. The scales failed to accurately predict repeat self-harm and suicide. The findings support existing clinical guidance not to use risk classification scales alone to determine treatment or predict future risk.

  2. SU-E-J-118: Verification of Intrafractional Positional Accuracy Using Ultrasound Autoscan Tracking for Prostate Cancer Treatment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yu, S; Hristov, D; Phillips, T

    Purpose: Transperineal ultrasound imaging is attractive option for imageguided radiation therapy as there is no need to implant fiducials, no extra imaging dose, and real time continuous imaging is possible during treatment. The aim of this study is to verify the tracking accuracy of a commercial ultrasound system under treatment conditions with a male pelvic phantom. Methods: A CT and ultrasound scan were acquired for the male pelvic phantom. The phantom was then placed in a treatment mimicking position on a motion platform. The axial and lateral tracking accuracy of the ultrasound system were verified using an independent optical trackingmore » system. The tracking accuracy was evaluated by tracking the phantom position detected by the ultrasound system, and comparing it to the optical tracking system under the conditions of beam on (15 MV), beam off, poor image quality with an acoustic shadow introduced, and different phantom motion cycles (10 and 20 second periods). Additionally, the time lag between the ultrasound-detected and actual phantom motion was investigated. Results: Displacement amplitudes reported by the ultrasound system and optical system were within 0.5 mm of each other for both directions and all conditions. The ultrasound tracking performance in axial direction was better than in lateral direction. Radiation did not interfere with ultrasound tracking while image quality affected tracking accuracy. The tracking accuracy was better for periodic motion with 20 second period. The time delay between the ultrasound tracking system and the phantom motion was clinically acceptable. Conclusion: Intrafractional prostate motion is a potential source of treatment error especially in the context of emerging SBRT regimens. It is feasible to use transperineal ultrasound daily to monitor prostate motion during treatment. Our results verify the tracking accuracy of a commercial ultrasound system to be better than 1 mm under typical external beam treatment

  3. A Robust High-Accuracy Ultrasound Indoor Positioning System Based on a Wireless Sensor Network

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Jun; Liu, Guo-Ping

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes the development and implementation of a robust high-accuracy ultrasonic indoor positioning system (UIPS). The UIPS consists of several wireless ultrasonic beacons in the indoor environment. Each of them has a fixed and known position coordinate and can collect all the transmissions from the target node or emit ultrasonic signals. Every wireless sensor network (WSN) node has two communication modules: one is WiFi, that transmits the data to the server, and the other is the radio frequency (RF) module, which is only used for time synchronization between different nodes, with accuracy up to 1 μs. The distance between the beacon and the target node is calculated by measuring the time-of-flight (TOF) for the ultrasonic signal, and then the position of the target is computed by some distances and the coordinate of the beacons. TOF estimation is the most important technique in the UIPS. A new time domain method to extract the envelope of the ultrasonic signals is presented in order to estimate the TOF. This method, with the envelope detection filter, estimates the value with the sampled values on both sides based on the least squares method (LSM). The simulation results show that the method can achieve envelope detection with a good filtering effect by means of the LSM. The highest precision and variance can reach 0.61 mm and 0.23 mm, respectively, in pseudo-range measurements with UIPS. A maximum location error of 10.2 mm is achieved in the positioning experiments for a moving robot, when UIPS works on the line-of-sight (LOS) signal. PMID:29113126

  4. A Robust High-Accuracy Ultrasound Indoor Positioning System Based on a Wireless Sensor Network.

    PubMed

    Qi, Jun; Liu, Guo-Ping

    2017-11-06

    This paper describes the development and implementation of a robust high-accuracy ultrasonic indoor positioning system (UIPS). The UIPS consists of several wireless ultrasonic beacons in the indoor environment. Each of them has a fixed and known position coordinate and can collect all the transmissions from the target node or emit ultrasonic signals. Every wireless sensor network (WSN) node has two communication modules: one is WiFi, that transmits the data to the server, and the other is the radio frequency (RF) module, which is only used for time synchronization between different nodes, with accuracy up to 1 μ s. The distance between the beacon and the target node is calculated by measuring the time-of-flight (TOF) for the ultrasonic signal, and then the position of the target is computed by some distances and the coordinate of the beacons. TOF estimation is the most important technique in the UIPS. A new time domain method to extract the envelope of the ultrasonic signals is presented in order to estimate the TOF. This method, with the envelope detection filter, estimates the value with the sampled values on both sides based on the least squares method (LSM). The simulation results show that the method can achieve envelope detection with a good filtering effect by means of the LSM. The highest precision and variance can reach 0.61 mm and 0.23 mm, respectively, in pseudo-range measurements with UIPS. A maximum location error of 10.2 mm is achieved in the positioning experiments for a moving robot, when UIPS works on the line-of-sight (LOS) signal.

  5. Diagnostic accuracy of 3D-transvaginal ultrasound in detecting uterine cavity abnormalities in infertile patients as compared with hysteroscopy.

    PubMed

    Apirakviriya, Chayanis; Rungruxsirivorn, Tassawan; Phupong, Vorapong; Wisawasukmongchol, Wirach

    2016-05-01

    To assess diagnostic accuracy of 3D transvaginal ultrasound (3D-TVS) compared with hysteroscopy in detecting uterine cavity abnormalities in infertile women. This prospective observational cross-sectional study was conducted during the July 2013 to December 2013 study period. Sixty-nine women with infertility were enrolled. In the mid to late follicular phase of each subject's menstrual cycle, 3D transvaginal ultrasound and hysteroscopy were performed on the same day in each patient. Hysteroscopy is widely considered to be the gold standard method for investigation of the uterine cavity. Uterine cavity characteristics and abnormalities were recorded. Diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were evaluated. Hysteroscopy was successfully performed in all subjects. Hysteroscopy diagnosed pathological findings in 22 of 69 cases (31.8%). There were 18 endometrial polyps, 3 submucous myomas, and 1 septate uterus. Three-dimensional transvaginal ultrasound in comparison with hysteroscopy had 84.1% diagnostic accuracy, 68.2% sensitivity, 91.5% specificity, 79% positive predictive value, and 86% negative predictive value. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 8.01 and 0.3, respectively. 3D-TVS successfully detected every case of submucous myoma and uterine anomaly. For detection of endometrial polyps, 3D-TVS had 61.1% sensitivity, 91.5% specificity, and 83.1% diagnostic accuracy. 3D-TVS demonstrated 84.1% diagnostic accuracy for detecting uterine cavity abnormalities in infertile women. A significant percentage of infertile patients had evidence of uterine cavity pathology. Hysteroscopy is, therefore, recommended for accurate detection and diagnosis of uterine cavity lesion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy Using Blood Biochemistry Features and Iterative Multitier Ensembles.

    PubMed

    Abawajy, Jemal; Kelarev, Andrei; Chowdhury, Morshed U; Jelinek, Herbert F

    2016-01-01

    Blood biochemistry attributes form an important class of tests, routinely collected several times per year for many patients with diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of blood biochemistry for improving the predictive accuracy of the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) progression. Blood biochemistry contributes to CAN, and so it is a causative factor that can provide additional power for the diagnosis of CAN especially in the absence of a complete set of Ewing tests. We introduce automated iterative multitier ensembles (AIME) and investigate their performance in comparison to base classifiers and standard ensemble classifiers for blood biochemistry attributes. AIME incorporate diverse ensembles into several tiers simultaneously and combine them into one automatically generated integrated system so that one ensemble acts as an integral part of another ensemble. We carried out extensive experimental analysis using large datasets from the diabetes screening research initiative (DiScRi) project. The results of our experiments show that several blood biochemistry attributes can be used to supplement the Ewing battery for the detection of CAN in situations where one or more of the Ewing tests cannot be completed because of the individual difficulties faced by each patient in performing the tests. The results show that AIME provide higher accuracy as a multitier CAN classification paradigm. The best predictive accuracy of 99.57% has been obtained by the AIME combining decorate on top tier with bagging on middle tier based on random forest. Practitioners can use these findings to increase the accuracy of CAN diagnosis.

  7. Voxel inversion of airborne electromagnetic data for improved groundwater model construction and prediction accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kruse Christensen, Nikolaj; Ferre, Ty Paul A.; Fiandaca, Gianluca; Christensen, Steen

    2017-03-01

    smoothness constraint. This is true for predictions of recharge area, head change, and stream discharge, while we find no improvement for prediction of groundwater age. Furthermore, we show that the model prediction accuracy improves with AEM data quality for predictions of recharge area, head change, and stream discharge, while there appears to be no accuracy improvement for the prediction of groundwater age.

  8. Comparative study to assess whether high sensitive C-reactive protein and carotid intima media thickness improve the predictive accuracy of exercise stress testing for coronary artery disease in perimenopausal women with typical angina.

    PubMed

    Sinha, Dhurjati Prasad; Das, Munna; Banerjee, Amal Kumar; Ahmed, Shageer; Majumdar, Sonali

    2008-02-01

    Anginal symptoms are less predictive of abnormal coronary anatomy in women. The diagnostic accuracy of exercise treadmill test for obstructive coronary artery disease is less in young and middle aged women. High sensitive C-reactive protein has shown a strong and consistent relationship to the risk of incident cardiovascular events. Carotid intima media thickness is a non-invasive marker of atherosclerosis burden and also predicts prognosis in patients with coronary artery disease. We investigated whether incorporation of high sensitive C-reactive protein and carotid intima media thickness along with exercise stress results improved the predictive accuracy in perimenopausal non-diabetic women subset. Fifty perimenopausal non-diabetic patients (age 45 +/- 7 years) presenting with typical angina were subjected to treadmill test (Bruce protocol). Also carotid artery images at both sides of neck were acquired by B-mode ultrasound and carotid intima media thickness were measured. High sensitive C-reactive protein was measured. Of 50 patients, 22 had a positive exercise stress result. Coronary angiography done in all 50 patients revealed coronary artery disease in 10 patients with positive exercise stress result and in 4 patients with negative exercise stress result. Treadmill exercise stress test had a sensitivity of 71.4%, specificity of 66.7% and a negative predictive accuracy of 85.7% in this study group. High sensitive C-reactive protein in patients with documented coronary artery disease was not significantly different from those without coronary artery disease (4.8 +/- 0.9 mg/l versus 3.9 +/- 1.7 mg/l, p=NS). Also carotid intima media thickness was not significantly different between either of the groups with coronary artery disease positivity and negativity respectively (left: 1.25 +/- 0.55 versus 1.20 +/- 0.51 mm, p=NS; right:1.18 +/- 0.54 versus 1.15 +/- 0.41 mm, p=NS). High sensitive C-reactive protein and carotid intima media thickness were not helpful in

  9. Accuracy of Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Varies by Neighborhood Socioeconomic Position: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Dalton, Jarrod E; Perzynski, Adam T; Zidar, David A; Rothberg, Michael B; Coulton, Claudia J; Milinovich, Alex T; Einstadter, Douglas; Karichu, James K; Dawson, Neal V

    2017-10-03

    Inequality in health outcomes in relation to Americans' socioeconomic position is rising. First, to evaluate the spatial relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and major atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD)-related events; second, to evaluate the relative extent to which neighborhood disadvantage and physiologic risk account for neighborhood-level variation in ASCVD event rates. Observational cohort analysis of geocoded longitudinal electronic health records. A single academic health center and surrounding neighborhoods in northeastern Ohio. 109 793 patients from the Cleveland Clinic Health System (CCHS) who had an outpatient lipid panel drawn between 2007 and 2010. The date of the first qualifying lipid panel served as the study baseline. Time from baseline to the first occurrence of a major ASCVD event (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) within 5 years, modeled as a function of a locally derived neighborhood disadvantage index (NDI) and the predicted 5-year ASCVD event rate from the Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Model (PCERM) of the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association. Outcome data were censored if no CCHS encounters occurred for 2 consecutive years or when state death data were no longer available (that is, from 2014 onward). The PCERM systematically underpredicted ASCVD event risk among patients from disadvantaged communities. Model discrimination was poorer among these patients (concordance index [C], 0.70 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.74]) than those from the most affluent communities (C, 0.80 [CI, 0.78 to 0.81]). The NDI alone accounted for 32.0% of census tract-level variation in ASCVD event rates, compared with 10.0% accounted for by the PCERM. Patients from affluent communities were overrepresented. Outcomes of patients who received treatment for cardiovascular disease at Cleveland Clinic were assumed to be independent of whether the patients came from a disadvantaged or an affluent neighborhood

  10. Predicting the Accuracy of Protein–Ligand Docking on Homology Models

    PubMed Central

    BORDOGNA, ANNALISA; PANDINI, ALESSANDRO; BONATI, LAURA

    2011-01-01

    Ligand–protein docking is increasingly used in Drug Discovery. The initial limitations imposed by a reduced availability of target protein structures have been overcome by the use of theoretical models, especially those derived by homology modeling techniques. While this greatly extended the use of docking simulations, it also introduced the need for general and robust criteria to estimate the reliability of docking results given the model quality. To this end, a large-scale experiment was performed on a diverse set including experimental structures and homology models for a group of representative ligand–protein complexes. A wide spectrum of model quality was sampled using templates at different evolutionary distances and different strategies for target–template alignment and modeling. The obtained models were scored by a selection of the most used model quality indices. The binding geometries were generated using AutoDock, one of the most common docking programs. An important result of this study is that indeed quantitative and robust correlations exist between the accuracy of docking results and the model quality, especially in the binding site. Moreover, state-of-the-art indices for model quality assessment are already an effective tool for an a priori prediction of the accuracy of docking experiments in the context of groups of proteins with conserved structural characteristics. PMID:20607693

  11. Predicting College Students' Positive Psychology Associated Traits with Executive Functioning Dimensions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Seth

    2016-01-01

    More research is needed that investigates how positive psychology-associated traits are predicted by neurocognitive processes. Correspondingly, the purpose of this study was to ascertain how, and to what extent, four traits, namely, grit, optimism, positive affect, and life satisfaction were predicted by the executive functioning (EF) dimensions…

  12. Carbon-Ion Pencil Beam Scanning Treatment With Gated Markerless Tumor Tracking: An Analysis of Positional Accuracy

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mori, Shinichiro, E-mail: shinshin@nirs.go.jp; Karube, Masataka; Shirai, Toshiyuki

    Purpose: Having implemented amplitude-based respiratory gating for scanned carbon-ion beam therapy, we sought to evaluate its effect on positional accuracy and throughput. Methods and Materials: A total of 10 patients with tumors of the lung and liver participated in the first clinical trials at our center. Treatment planning was conducted with 4-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) under free-breathing conditions. The planning target volume (PTV) was calculated by adding a 2- to 3-mm setup margin outside the clinical target volume (CTV) within the gating window. The treatment beam was on when the CTV was within the PTV. Tumor position was detected inmore » real time with a markerless tumor tracking system using paired x-ray fluoroscopic imaging units. Results: The patient setup error (mean ± SD) was 1.1 ± 1.2 mm/0.6 ± 0.4°. The mean internal gating accuracy (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 0.5 mm. If external gating had been applied to this treatment, the mean gating accuracy (95% CI) would have been 4.1 mm. The fluoroscopic radiation doses (mean ± SD) were 23.7 ± 21.8 mGy per beam and less than 487.5 mGy total throughout the treatment course. The setup, preparation, and irradiation times (mean ± SD) were 8.9 ± 8.2 min, 9.5 ± 4.6 min, and 4.0 ± 2.4 min, respectively. The treatment room occupation time was 36.7 ± 67.5 min. Conclusions: Internal gating had a much higher accuracy than external gating. By the addition of a setup margin of 2 to 3 mm, internal gating positional error was less than 2.2 mm at 95% CI.« less

  13. Thematic and positional accuracy assessment of digital remotely sensed data

    Treesearch

    Russell G. Congalton

    2007-01-01

    Accuracy assessment or validation has become a standard component of any land cover or vegetation map derived from remotely sensed data. Knowing the accuracy of the map is vital to any decisionmaking performed using that map. The process of assessing the map accuracy is time consuming and expensive. It is very important that the procedure be well thought out and...

  14. Associated t t ¯ production at the LHC: Theoretical predictions at NLO +NNLL accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulesza, Anna; Motyka, Leszek; Stebel, Tomasz; Theeuwes, Vincent

    2018-06-01

    We perform threshold resummation of soft gluon corrections to the total cross section and the invariant mass distribution for the process p p →t t ¯H . The resummation is carried out at next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic (NNLL) accuracy using the direct QCD Mellin space technique in the three-particle invariant mass kinematics. After presenting analytical expressions we discuss the impact of resummation on the numerical predictions for the associated Higgs boson production with top quarks at the LHC. We find that next-to-leading-order (NLO)+NNLL resummation leads to predictions for which the central values are remarkably stable with respect to scale variation and for which theoretical uncertainties are reduced in comparison to NLO predictions.

  15. First clinical experience in carbon ion scanning beam therapy: retrospective analysis of patient positional accuracy.

    PubMed

    Mori, Shinichiro; Shibayama, Kouichi; Tanimoto, Katsuyuki; Kumagai, Motoki; Matsuzaki, Yuka; Furukawa, Takuji; Inaniwa, Taku; Shirai, Toshiyuki; Noda, Koji; Tsuji, Hiroshi; Kamada, Tadashi

    2012-09-01

    Our institute has constructed a new treatment facility for carbon ion scanning beam therapy. The first clinical trials were successfully completed at the end of November 2011. To evaluate patient setup accuracy, positional errors between the reference Computed Tomography (CT) scan and final patient setup images were calculated using 2D-3D registration software. Eleven patients with tumors of the head and neck, prostate and pelvis receiving carbon ion scanning beam treatment participated. The patient setup process takes orthogonal X-ray flat panel detector (FPD) images and the therapists adjust the patient table position in six degrees of freedom to register the reference position by manual or auto- (or both) registration functions. We calculated residual positional errors with the 2D-3D auto-registration function using the final patient setup orthogonal FPD images and treatment planning CT data. Residual error averaged over all patients in each fraction decreased from the initial to the last treatment fraction [1.09 mm/0.76° (averaged in the 1st and 2nd fractions) to 0.77 mm/0.61° (averaged in the 15th and 16th fractions)]. 2D-3D registration calculation time was 8.0 s on average throughout the treatment course. Residual errors in translation and rotation averaged over all patients as a function of date decreased with the passage of time (1.6 mm/1.2° in May 2011 to 0.4 mm/0.2° in December 2011). This retrospective residual positional error analysis shows that the accuracy of patient setup during the first clinical trials of carbon ion beam scanning therapy was good and improved with increasing therapist experience.

  16. Improved method for predicting protein fold patterns with ensemble classifiers.

    PubMed

    Chen, W; Liu, X; Huang, Y; Jiang, Y; Zou, Q; Lin, C

    2012-01-27

    Protein folding is recognized as a critical problem in the field of biophysics in the 21st century. Predicting protein-folding patterns is challenging due to the complex structure of proteins. In an attempt to solve this problem, we employed ensemble classifiers to improve prediction accuracy. In our experiments, 188-dimensional features were extracted based on the composition and physical-chemical property of proteins and 20-dimensional features were selected using a coupled position-specific scoring matrix. Compared with traditional prediction methods, these methods were superior in terms of prediction accuracy. The 188-dimensional feature-based method achieved 71.2% accuracy in five cross-validations. The accuracy rose to 77% when we used a 20-dimensional feature vector. These methods were used on recent data, with 54.2% accuracy. Source codes and dataset, together with web server and software tools for prediction, are available at: http://datamining.xmu.edu.cn/main/~cwc/ProteinPredict.html.

  17. Visuo-vestibular interaction: predicting the position of a visual target during passive body rotation.

    PubMed

    Mackrous, I; Simoneau, M

    2011-11-10

    Following body rotation, optimal updating of the position of a memorized target is attained when retinal error is perceived and corrective saccade is performed. Thus, it appears that these processes may enable the calibration of the vestibular system by facilitating the sharing of information between both reference frames. Here, it is assessed whether having sensory information regarding body rotation in the target reference frame could enhance an individual's learning rate to predict the position of an earth-fixed target. During rotation, participants had to respond when they felt their body midline had crossed the position of the target and received knowledge of result. During practice blocks, for two groups, visual cues were displayed in the same reference frame of the target, whereas a third group relied on vestibular information (vestibular-only group) to predict the location of the target. Participants, unaware of the role of the visual cues (visual cues group), learned to predict the location of the target and spatial error decreased from 16.2 to 2.0°, reflecting a learning rate of 34.08 trials (determined from fitting a falling exponential model). In contrast, the group aware of the role of the visual cues (explicit visual cues group) showed a faster learning rate (i.e. 2.66 trials) but similar final spatial error 2.9°. For the vestibular-only group, similar accuracy was achieved (final spatial error of 2.3°), but their learning rate was much slower (i.e. 43.29 trials). Transferring to the Post-test (no visual cues and no knowledge of result) increased the spatial error of the explicit visual cues group (9.5°), but it did not change the performance of the vestibular group (1.2°). Overall, these results imply that cognition assists the brain in processing the sensory information within the target reference frame. Copyright © 2011 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Real time shear wave elastography in chronic liver diseases: Accuracy for predicting liver fibrosis, in comparison with serum markers

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Jae Yoon; Kim, Tae Yeob; Sohn, Joo Hyun; Kim, Yongsoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung; Oh, Young-Ha; Yoo, Kyo-Sang

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the correlation between liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by real-time shear wave elastography (SWE) and liver fibrosis stage and the accuracy of LSM for predicting significant and advanced fibrosis, in comparison with serum markers. METHODS: We consecutively analyzed 70 patients with various chronic liver diseases. Liver fibrosis was staged from F0 to F4 according to the Batts and Ludwig scoring system. Significant and advanced fibrosis was defined as stage F ≥ 2 and F ≥ 3, respectively. The accuracy of prediction for fibrosis was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Seventy patients, 15 were belonged to F0-F1 stage, 20 F2, 13 F3 and 22 F4. LSM was increased with progression of fibrosis stage (F0-F1: 6.77 ± 1.72, F2: 9.98 ± 3.99, F3: 15.80 ± 7.73, and F4: 22.09 ± 10.09, P < 0.001). Diagnostic accuracies of LSM for prediction of F ≥ 2 and F ≥ 3 were 0.915 (95%CI: 0.824-0.968, P < 0.001) and 0.913 (95%CI: 0.821-0.967, P < 0.001), respectively. The cut-off values of LSM for prediction of F ≥ 2 and F ≥ 3 were 8.6 kPa with 78.2% sensitivity and 93.3% specificity and 10.46 kPa with 88.6% sensitivity and 80.0% specificity, respectively. However, there were no significant differences between LSM and serum hyaluronic acid and type IV collagen in diagnostic accuracy. CONCLUSION: SWE showed a significant correlation with the severity of liver fibrosis and was useful and accurate to predict significant and advanced fibrosis, comparable with serum markers. PMID:25320528

  19. Real time shear wave elastography in chronic liver diseases: accuracy for predicting liver fibrosis, in comparison with serum markers.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Jae Yoon; Kim, Tae Yeob; Sohn, Joo Hyun; Kim, Yongsoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung; Oh, Young-Ha; Yoo, Kyo-Sang

    2014-10-14

    To evaluate the correlation between liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by real-time shear wave elastography (SWE) and liver fibrosis stage and the accuracy of LSM for predicting significant and advanced fibrosis, in comparison with serum markers. We consecutively analyzed 70 patients with various chronic liver diseases. Liver fibrosis was staged from F0 to F4 according to the Batts and Ludwig scoring system. Significant and advanced fibrosis was defined as stage F ≥ 2 and F ≥ 3, respectively. The accuracy of prediction for fibrosis was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Seventy patients, 15 were belonged to F0-F1 stage, 20 F2, 13 F3 and 22 F4. LSM was increased with progression of fibrosis stage (F0-F1: 6.77 ± 1.72, F2: 9.98 ± 3.99, F3: 15.80 ± 7.73, and F4: 22.09 ± 10.09, P < 0.001). Diagnostic accuracies of LSM for prediction of F ≥ 2 and F ≥ 3 were 0.915 (95%CI: 0.824-0.968, P < 0.001) and 0.913 (95%CI: 0.821-0.967, P < 0.001), respectively. The cut-off values of LSM for prediction of F ≥ 2 and F ≥ 3 were 8.6 kPa with 78.2% sensitivity and 93.3% specificity and 10.46 kPa with 88.6% sensitivity and 80.0% specificity, respectively. However, there were no significant differences between LSM and serum hyaluronic acid and type IV collagen in diagnostic accuracy. SWE showed a significant correlation with the severity of liver fibrosis and was useful and accurate to predict significant and advanced fibrosis, comparable with serum markers.

  20. Accuracy of Satellite Optical Observations and Precise Orbit Determination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakun, L.; Koshkin, N.; Korobeynikova, E.; Strakhova, S.; Dragomiretsky, V.; Ryabov, A.; Melikyants, S.; Golubovskaya, T.; Terpan, S.

    The monitoring of low-orbit space objects (LEO-objects) is performed in the Astronomical Observatory of Odessa I.I. Mechnikov National University (Ukraine) for many years. Decades-long archives of these observations are accessible within Ukrainian network of optical observers (UMOS). In this work, we give an example of orbit determination for the satellite with the 1500-km height of orbit based on angular observations in our observatory (Int. No. 086). For estimation of the measurement accuracy and accuracy of determination and propagation of satellite position, we analyze the observations of Ajisai satellite with the well-determined orbit. This allows making justified conclusions not only about random errors of separate measurements, but also to analyze the presence of systematic errors, including external ones to the measurement process. We have shown that the accuracy of one measurement has the standard deviation about 1 arcsec across the track and 1.4 arcsec along the track and systematical shifts in measurements of one track do not exceed 0.45 arcsec. Ajisai position in the interval of the orbit fitting is predicted with accuracy better than 30 m along the orbit and better than 10 m across the orbit for any its point.

  1. Predicting bias in perceived position using attention field models.

    PubMed

    Klein, Barrie P; Paffen, Chris L E; Pas, Susan F Te; Dumoulin, Serge O

    2016-05-01

    Attention is the mechanism through which we select relevant information from our visual environment. We have recently demonstrated that attention attracts receptive fields across the visual hierarchy (Klein, Harvey, & Dumoulin, 2014). We captured this receptive field attraction using an attention field model. Here, we apply this model to human perception: We predict that receptive field attraction results in a bias in perceived position, which depends on the size of the underlying receptive fields. We instructed participants to compare the relative position of Gabor stimuli, while we manipulated the focus of attention using exogenous cueing. We varied the eccentric position and spatial frequency of the Gabor stimuli to vary underlying receptive field size. The positional biases as a function of eccentricity matched the predictions by an attention field model, whereas the bias as a function of spatial frequency did not. As spatial frequency and eccentricity are encoded differently across the visual hierarchy, we speculate that they might interact differently with the attention field that is spatially defined.

  2. On the distance of genetic relationships and the accuracy of genomic prediction in pig breeding.

    PubMed

    Meuwissen, Theo H E; Odegard, Jorgen; Andersen-Ranberg, Ina; Grindflek, Eli

    2014-08-01

    With the advent of genomic selection, alternative relationship matrices are used in animal breeding, which vary in their coverage of distant relationships due to old common ancestors. Relationships based on pedigree (A) and linkage analysis (GLA) cover only recent relationships because of the limited depth of the known pedigree. Relationships based on identity-by-state (G) include relationships up to the age of the SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) mutations. We hypothesised that the latter relationships were too old, since QTL (quantitative trait locus) mutations for traits under selection were probably more recent than the SNPs on a chip, which are typically selected for high minor allele frequency. In addition, A and GLA relationships are too recent to cover genetic differences accurately. Thus, we devised a relationship matrix that considered intermediate-aged relationships and compared all these relationship matrices for their accuracy of genomic prediction in a pig breeding situation. Haplotypes were constructed and used to build a haplotype-based relationship matrix (GH), which considers more intermediate-aged relationships, since haplotypes recombine more quickly than SNPs mutate. Dense genotypes (38 453 SNPs) on 3250 elite breeding pigs were combined with phenotypes for growth rate (2668 records), lean meat percentage (2618), weight at three weeks of age (7387) and number of teats (5851) to estimate breeding values for all animals in the pedigree (8187 animals) using the aforementioned relationship matrices. Phenotypes on the youngest 424 to 486 animals were masked and predicted in order to assess the accuracy of the alternative genomic predictions. Correlations between the relationships and regressions of older on younger relationships revealed that the age of the relationships increased in the order A, GLA, GH and G. Use of genomic relationship matrices yielded significantly higher prediction accuracies than A. GH and G, differed not significantly

  3. Portable device to assess dynamic accuracy of global positioning systems (GPS) receivers used in agricultural aircraft

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A device was designed to test the dynamic accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers used in aerial vehicles. The system works by directing a sun-reflected light beam from the ground to the aircraft using mirrors. A photodetector is placed pointing downward from the aircraft and circuitry...

  4. Diagnostic accuracy of liver fibrosis based on red cell distribution width (RDW) to platelet ratio with fibroscan in chronic hepatitis B

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sembiring, J.; Jones, F.

    2018-03-01

    Red cell Distribution Width (RDW) and platelet ratio (RPR) can predict liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B with relatively high accuracy. RPR was superior to other non-invasive methods to predict liver fibrosis, such as AST and ALT ratio, AST and platelet ratio Index and FIB-4. The aim of this study was to assess diagnostic accuracy liver fibrosis by using RDW and platelets ratio in chronic hepatitis B patients based on compared with Fibroscan. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Adam Malik Hospital from January-June 2015. We examine 34 patients hepatitis B chronic, screen RDW, platelet, and fibroscan. Data were statistically analyzed. The result RPR with ROC procedure has an accuracy of 72.3% (95% CI: 84.1% - 97%). In this study, the RPR had a moderate ability to predict fibrosis degree (p = 0.029 with AUC> 70%). The cutoff value RPR was 0.0591, sensitivity and spesificity were 71.4% and 60%, Positive Prediction Value (PPV) was 55.6% and Negative Predictions Value (NPV) was 75%, positive likelihood ratio was 1.79 and negative likelihood ratio was 0.48. RPR have the ability to predict the degree of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with moderate accuracy.

  5. PREOPERATIVE MRI IMPROVES PREDICTION OF EXTENSIVE OCCULT AXILLARY LYMPH NODE METASTASES IN BREAST CANCER PATIENTS WITH A POSITIVE SENTINEL LYMPH NODE BIOPSY

    PubMed Central

    Loiselle, Christopher; Eby, Peter R.; Kim, Janice N.; Calhoun, Kristine E.; Allison, Kimberly H.; Gadi, Vijayakrishna K.; Peacock, Sue; Storer, Barry; Mankoff, David A.; Partridge, Savannah C.; Lehman, Constance D.

    2014-01-01

    Rationale and Objectives To test the ability of quantitative measures from preoperative Dynamic Contrast Enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) to predict, independently and/or with the Katz pathologic nomogram, which breast cancer patients with a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy will have ≥ 4 positive axillary lymph nodes upon completion axillary dissection. Methods and Materials A retrospective review was conducted to identify clinically node-negative invasive breast cancer patients who underwent preoperative DCE-MRI, followed by sentinel node biopsy with positive findings and complete axillary dissection (6/2005 – 1/2010). Clinical/pathologic factors, primary lesion size and quantitative DCE-MRI kinetics were collected from clinical records and prospective databases. DCE-MRI parameters with univariate significance (p < 0.05) to predict ≥ 4 positive axillary nodes were modeled with stepwise regression and compared to the Katz nomogram alone and to a combined MRI-Katz nomogram model. Results Ninety-eight patients with 99 positive sentinel biopsies met study criteria. Stepwise regression identified DCE-MRI total persistent enhancement and volume adjusted peak enhancement as significant predictors of ≥4 metastatic nodes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the Katz nomogram, 0.79 for the DCE-MRI multivariate model, and 0.87 for the combined MRI-Katz model. The combined model was significantly more predictive than the Katz nomogram alone (p = 0.003). Conclusion Integration of DCE-MRI primary lesion kinetics significantly improved the Katz pathologic nomogram accuracy to predict presence of metastases in ≥ 4 nodes. DCE-MRI may help identify sentinel node positive patients requiring further localregional therapy. PMID:24331270

  6. Combining cow and bull reference populations to increase accuracy of genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Calus, M P L; de Haas, Y; Veerkamp, R F

    2013-10-01

    Genomic selection holds the promise to be particularly beneficial for traits that are difficult or expensive to measure, such that access to phenotypes on large daughter groups of bulls is limited. Instead, cow reference populations can be generated, potentially supplemented with existing information from the same or (highly) correlated traits available on bull reference populations. The objective of this study, therefore, was to develop a model to perform genomic predictions and genome-wide association studies based on a combined cow and bull reference data set, with the accuracy of the phenotypes differing between the cow and bull genomic selection reference populations. The developed bivariate Bayesian stochastic search variable selection model allowed for an unbalanced design by imputing residuals in the residual updating scheme for all missing records. The performance of this model is demonstrated on a real data example, where the analyzed trait, being milk fat or protein yield, was either measured only on a cow or a bull reference population, or recorded on both. Our results were that the developed bivariate Bayesian stochastic search variable selection model was able to analyze 2 traits, even though animals had measurements on only 1 of 2 traits. The Bayesian stochastic search variable selection model yielded consistently higher accuracy for fat yield compared with a model without variable selection, both for the univariate and bivariate analyses, whereas the accuracy of both models was very similar for protein yield. The bivariate model identified several additional quantitative trait loci peaks compared with the single-trait models on either trait. In addition, the bivariate models showed a marginal increase in accuracy of genomic predictions for the cow traits (0.01-0.05), although a greater increase in accuracy is expected as the size of the bull population increases. Our results emphasize that the chosen value of priors in Bayesian genomic prediction

  7. Phishtest: Measuring the Impact of Email Headers on the Predictive Accuracy of Machine Learning Techniques

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tout, Hicham

    2013-01-01

    The majority of documented phishing attacks have been carried by email, yet few studies have measured the impact of email headers on the predictive accuracy of machine learning techniques in detecting email phishing attacks. Research has shown that the inclusion of a limited subset of email headers as features in training machine learning…

  8. A comparison of accuracy validation methods for genomic and pedigree-based predictions of swine litter size traits using Large White and simulated data.

    PubMed

    Putz, A M; Tiezzi, F; Maltecca, C; Gray, K A; Knauer, M T

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this study was to compare and determine the optimal validation method when comparing accuracy from single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP) to traditional pedigree-based BLUP. Field data included six litter size traits. Simulated data included ten replicates designed to mimic the field data in order to determine the method that was closest to the true accuracy. Data were split into training and validation sets. The methods used were as follows: (i) theoretical accuracy derived from the prediction error variance (PEV) of the direct inverse (iLHS), (ii) approximated accuracies from the accf90(GS) program in the BLUPF90 family of programs (Approx), (iii) correlation between predictions and the single-step GEBVs from the full data set (GEBV Full ), (iv) correlation between predictions and the corrected phenotypes of females from the full data set (Y c ), (v) correlation from method iv divided by the square root of the heritability (Y ch ) and (vi) correlation between sire predictions and the average of their daughters' corrected phenotypes (Y cs ). Accuracies from iLHS increased from 0.27 to 0.37 (37%) in the Large White. Approximation accuracies were very consistent and close in absolute value (0.41 to 0.43). Both iLHS and Approx were much less variable than the corrected phenotype methods (ranging from 0.04 to 0.27). On average, simulated data showed an increase in accuracy from 0.34 to 0.44 (29%) using ssGBLUP. Both iLHS and Y ch approximated the increase well, 0.30 to 0.46 and 0.36 to 0.45, respectively. GEBV Full performed poorly in both data sets and is not recommended. Results suggest that for within-breed selection, theoretical accuracy using PEV was consistent and accurate. When direct inversion is infeasible to get the PEV, correlating predictions to the corrected phenotypes divided by the square root of heritability is adequate given a large enough validation data set. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  9. A new predictive model for continuous positive airway pressure in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea.

    PubMed

    Ebben, Matthew R; Narizhnaya, Mariya; Krieger, Ana C

    2017-05-01

    Numerous mathematical formulas have been developed to determine continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) without an in-laboratory titration study. Recent studies have shown that style of CPAP mask can affect the optimal pressure requirement. However, none of the current models take mask style into account. Therefore, the goal of this study was to develop new predictive models of CPAP that take into account the style of mask interface. Data from 200 subjects with attended CPAP titrations during overnight polysomnograms using nasal masks and 132 subjects using oronasal masks were randomized and split into either a model development or validation group. Predictive models were then created in each model development group and the accuracy of the models was then tested in the model validation groups. The correlation between our new oronasal model and laboratory determined optimal CPAP was significant, r = 0.61, p < 0.001. Our nasal formula was also significantly related to laboratory determined optimal CPAP, r = 0.35, p < 0.001. The oronasal model created in our study significantly outperformed the original CPAP predictive model developed by Miljeteig and Hoffstein, z = 1.99, p < 0.05. The predictive performance of our new nasal model did not differ significantly from Miljeteig and Hoffstein's original model, z = -0.16, p < 0.90. The best predictors for the nasal mask group were AHI, lowest SaO2, and neck size, whereas the top predictors in the oronasal group were AHI and lowest SaO2. Our data show that predictive models of CPAP that take into account mask style can significantly improve the formula's accuracy. Most of the past models likely focused on model development with nasal masks (mask style used for model development was not typically reported in previous investigations) and are not well suited for patients using an oronasal interface. Our new oronasal CPAP prediction equation produced significantly improved performance compared to the well

  10. Assessment of the predictive accuracy of five in silico prediction tools, alone or in combination, and two metaservers to classify long QT syndrome gene mutations.

    PubMed

    Leong, Ivone U S; Stuckey, Alexander; Lai, Daniel; Skinner, Jonathan R; Love, Donald R

    2015-05-13

    Long QT syndrome (LQTS) is an autosomal dominant condition predisposing to sudden death from malignant arrhythmia. Genetic testing identifies many missense single nucleotide variants of uncertain pathogenicity. Establishing genetic pathogenicity is an essential prerequisite to family cascade screening. Many laboratories use in silico prediction tools, either alone or in combination, or metaservers, in order to predict pathogenicity; however, their accuracy in the context of LQTS is unknown. We evaluated the accuracy of five in silico programs and two metaservers in the analysis of LQTS 1-3 gene variants. The in silico tools SIFT, PolyPhen-2, PROVEAN, SNPs&GO and SNAP, either alone or in all possible combinations, and the metaservers Meta-SNP and PredictSNP, were tested on 312 KCNQ1, KCNH2 and SCN5A gene variants that have previously been characterised by either in vitro or co-segregation studies as either "pathogenic" (283) or "benign" (29). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) were calculated to determine the best combination of in silico tools for each LQTS gene, and when all genes are combined. The best combination of in silico tools for KCNQ1 is PROVEAN, SNPs&GO and SIFT (accuracy 92.7%, sensitivity 93.1%, specificity 100% and MCC 0.70). The best combination of in silico tools for KCNH2 is SIFT and PROVEAN or PROVEAN, SNPs&GO and SIFT. Both combinations have the same scores for accuracy (91.1%), sensitivity (91.5%), specificity (87.5%) and MCC (0.62). In the case of SCN5A, SNAP and PROVEAN provided the best combination (accuracy 81.4%, sensitivity 86.9%, specificity 50.0%, and MCC 0.32). When all three LQT genes are combined, SIFT, PROVEAN and SNAP is the combination with the best performance (accuracy 82.7%, sensitivity 83.0%, specificity 80.0%, and MCC 0.44). Both metaservers performed better than the single in silico tools; however, they did not perform better than the best performing combination of in silico

  11. EMUDRA: Ensemble of Multiple Drug Repositioning Approaches to Improve Prediction Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xianxiao; Wang, Minghui; Katsyv, Igor; Irie, Hanna; Zhang, Bin

    2018-04-24

    Availability of large-scale genomic, epigenetic and proteomic data in complex diseases makes it possible to objectively and comprehensively identify therapeutic targets that can lead to new therapies. The Connectivity Map has been widely used to explore novel indications of existing drugs. However, the prediction accuracy of the existing methods, such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic remains low. Here we present a novel high-performance drug repositioning approach that improves over the state-of-the-art methods. We first designed an expression weighted cosine method (EWCos) to minimize the influence of the uninformative expression changes and then developed an ensemble approach termed EMUDRA (Ensemble of Multiple Drug Repositioning Approaches) to integrate EWCos and three existing state-of-the-art methods. EMUDRA significantly outperformed individual drug repositioning methods when applied to simulated and independent evaluation datasets. We predicted using EMUDRA and experimentally validated an antibiotic rifabutin as an inhibitor of cell growth in triple negative breast cancer. EMUDRA can identify drugs that more effectively target disease gene signatures and will thus be a useful tool for identifying novel therapies for complex diseases and predicting new indications for existing drugs. The EMUDRA R package is available at doi:10.7303/syn11510888. bin.zhang@mssm.edu or zhangb@hotmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  12. [Method for evaluating the positional accuracy of a six-degrees-of-freedom radiotherapy couch using high definition digital cameras].

    PubMed

    Takemura, Akihiro; Ueda, Shinichi; Noto, Kimiya; Kurata, Yuichi; Shoji, Saori

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we proposed and evaluated a positional accuracy assessment method with two high-resolution digital cameras for add-on six-degrees-of-freedom radiotherapy (6D) couches. Two high resolution digital cameras (D5000, Nikon Co.) were used in this accuracy assessment method. These cameras were placed on two orthogonal axes of a linear accelerator (LINAC) coordinate system and focused on the isocenter of the LINAC. Pictures of a needle that was fixed on the 6D couch were taken by the cameras during couch motions of translation and rotation of each axis. The coordinates of the needle in the pictures were obtained using manual measurement, and the coordinate error of the needle was calculated. The accuracy of a HexaPOD evo (Elekta AB, Sweden) was evaluated using this method. All of the mean values of the X, Y, and Z coordinate errors in the translation tests were within ±0.1 mm. However, the standard deviation of the Z coordinate errors in the Z translation test was 0.24 mm, which is higher than the others. In the X rotation test, we found that the X coordinate of the rotational origin of the 6D couch was shifted. We proposed an accuracy assessment method for a 6D couch. The method was able to evaluate the accuracy of the motion of only the 6D couch and revealed the deviation of the origin of the couch rotation. This accuracy assessment method is effective for evaluating add-on 6D couch positioning.

  13. Diagnostic Accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex Scores in Predicting the Presence of Esophageal Varices in Liver Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Han; Qi, Xingshun; Guo, Xiaozhong

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores may be simple and convenient noninvasive diagnostic tests, because they are based on the regular laboratory tests and demographic data. This study aimed to systematically evaluate their diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of varices in liver cirrhosis. All relevant papers were searched via PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI, and Wanfang databases. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUSROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR and NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated. Overall, 12, 4, 5, 0, 0, 4, 3, and 1 paper was identified to explore the diagnostic accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores, respectively. The AUSROCs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were 0.6774, 0.7275, 0.7755, 0.7885, and 0.7517, respectively; and those for the prediction of large varices were 0.7278, 0.7448, 0.7095, 0.7264, and 0.6530, respectively. The diagnostic threshold effects of FIB-4 and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were statistically significant. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, and Lok scores for the prediction of varices were 0.60/0.67/1.77/0.58/3.13, 0.64/0.63/1.97/0.54/4.18, and 0.74/0.68/2.34/0.40/5.76, respectively. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of large varices were 0.65/0.66/2.15/0.47/4.97, 0.68/0.58/2.07/0.54/3.93, 0.62/0.64/2.02/0.56/3.57, 0.78/0.63/2.09/0.37/5.55, and 0.65/0.61/1.62/0.59/2.75, respectively. APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores had low to moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of varices in liver cirrhosis. PMID:26496312

  14. Accuracy of Estimating Solar Radiation Pressure for GEO Debris with Tumbling Effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chao, Chia-Chun George

    2009-03-01

    The accuracy of estimating solar radiation pressure for GEO debris is examined and demonstrated, via numerical simulations, by fitting a batch (months) of simulated position vectors. These simulated position vectors are generated from a "truth orbit" with added white noise using high-precision numerical integration tools. After the long-arc fit of the simulated observations (position vectors), one can accurately and reliably determine how close the estimated value of solar radiation pressure is to the truth. Results of this study show that the inherent accuracy in estimating the solar radiation pressure coefficient can be as good as 1% if a long-arc fit span up to 180 days is used and the satellite is not tumbling. The corresponding position prediction accuracy can be as good as, in maximum error, 1 km along in-track, 0.3 km along radial and 0.1 km along cross-track up to 30 days. Similar accuracies can be expected when the object is tumbling as long as the rate of attitude change is different from the orbit rate. Results of this study reveal an important phenomenon that the solar radiation pressure significantly affects the orbit motion when the spin rate is equal to the orbit rate.

  15. Accuracy assessment of pharmacogenetically predictive warfarin dosing algorithms in patients of an academic medical center anticoagulation clinic.

    PubMed

    Shaw, Paul B; Donovan, Jennifer L; Tran, Maichi T; Lemon, Stephenie C; Burgwinkle, Pamela; Gore, Joel

    2010-08-01

    The objectives of this retrospective cohort study are to evaluate the accuracy of pharmacogenetic warfarin dosing algorithms in predicting therapeutic dose and to determine if this degree of accuracy warrants the routine use of genotyping to prospectively dose patients newly started on warfarin. Seventy-one patients of an outpatient anticoagulation clinic at an academic medical center who were age 18 years or older on a stable, therapeutic warfarin dose with international normalized ratio (INR) goal between 2.0 and 3.0, and cytochrome P450 isoenzyme 2C9 (CYP2C9) and vitamin K epoxide reductase complex subunit 1 (VKORC1) genotypes available between January 1, 2007 and September 30, 2008 were included. Six pharmacogenetic warfarin dosing algorithms were identified from the medical literature. Additionally, a 5 mg fixed dose approach was evaluated. Three algorithms, Zhu et al. (Clin Chem 53:1199-1205, 2007), Gage et al. (J Clin Ther 84:326-331, 2008), and International Warfarin Pharmacogenetic Consortium (IWPC) (N Engl J Med 360:753-764, 2009) were similar in the primary accuracy endpoints with mean absolute error (MAE) ranging from 1.7 to 1.8 mg/day and coefficient of determination R (2) from 0.61 to 0.66. However, the Zhu et al. algorithm severely over-predicted dose (defined as >or=2x or >or=2 mg/day more than actual dose) in twice as many (14 vs. 7%) patients as Gage et al. 2008 and IWPC 2009. In conclusion, the algorithms published by Gage et al. 2008 and the IWPC 2009 were the two most accurate pharmacogenetically based equations available in the medical literature in predicting therapeutic warfarin dose in our study population. However, the degree of accuracy demonstrated does not support the routine use of genotyping to prospectively dose all patients newly started on warfarin.

  16. Mapping stream habitats with a global positioning system: Accuracy, precision, and comparison with traditional methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.; Belt, K.C.

    2006-01-01

    We tested the precision and accuracy of the Trimble GeoXT??? global positioning system (GPS) handheld receiver on point and area features and compared estimates of stream habitat dimensions (e.g., lengths and areas of riffles and pools) that were made in three different Oklahoma streams using the GPS receiver and a tape measure. The precision of differentially corrected GPS (DGPS) points was not affected by the number of GPS position fixes (i.e., geographic location estimates) averaged per DGPS point. Horizontal error of points ranged from 0.03 to 2.77 m and did not differ with the number of position fixes per point. The error of area measurements ranged from 0.1% to 110.1% but decreased as the area increased. Again, error was independent of the number of position fixes averaged per polygon corner. The estimates of habitat lengths, widths, and areas did not differ when measured using two methods of data collection (GPS and a tape measure), nor did the differences among methods change at three stream sites with contrasting morphologies. Measuring features with a GPS receiver was up to 3.3 times faster on average than using a tape measure, although signal interference from high streambanks or overhanging vegetation occasionally limited satellite signal availability and prolonged measurements with a GPS receiver. There were also no differences in precision of habitat dimensions when mapped using a continuous versus a position fix average GPS data collection method. Despite there being some disadvantages to using the GPS in stream habitat studies, measuring stream habitats with a GPS resulted in spatially referenced data that allowed the assessment of relative habitat position and changes in habitats over time, and was often faster than using a tape measure. For most spatial scales of interest, the precision and accuracy of DGPS data are adequate and have logistical advantages when compared to traditional methods of measurement. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media

  17. Limited diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging and clinical tests for detecting partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff.

    PubMed

    Brockmeyer, Matthias; Schmitt, Cornelia; Haupert, Alexander; Kohn, Dieter; Lorbach, Olaf

    2017-12-01

    The reliable diagnosis of partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff is still elusive in clinical practise. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of MR imaging and clinical tests for detecting partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff as well as the combination of these parameters. 334 consecutive shoulder arthroscopies for rotator cuff pathologies performed during the time period between 2010 and 2012 were analyzed retrospectively for the findings of common clinical signs for rotator cuff lesions and preoperative MR imaging. These were compared with the intraoperative arthroscopic findings as "gold standard". The reports of the MR imaging were evaluated with regard to the integrity of the rotator cuff. The Ellman Classification was used to define partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff in accordance with the arthroscopic findings. Descriptive statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value were calculated. MR imaging showed 80 partial-thickness and 70 full-thickness tears of the rotator cuff. The arthroscopic examination confirmed 64 partial-thickness tears of which 52 needed debridement or refixation of the rotator cuff. Sensitivity for MR imaging to identify partial-thickness tears was 51.6%, specificity 77.2%, positive predictive value 41.3% and negative predictive value 83.7%. For the Jobe-test, sensitivity was 64.1%, specificity 43.2%, positive predictive value 25.9% and negative predictive value 79.5%. Sensitivity for the Impingement-sign was 76.7%, specificity 46.6%, positive predictive value 30.8% and negative predictive value 86.5%. For the combination of MR imaging, Jobe-test and Impingement-sign sensitivity was 46.9%, specificity 85.4%, positive predictive value 50% and negative predictive value 83.8%. The diagnostic accuracy of MR imaging and clinical tests (Jobe-test and Impingement-sign) alone is limited for detecting partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff. Additionally

  18. Accuracy of FDG-PET to diagnose lung cancer in a region of endemic granulomatous disease.

    PubMed

    Deppen, Stephen; Putnam, Joe B; Andrade, Gabriela; Speroff, Theodore; Nesbitt, Jonathan C; Lambright, Eric S; Massion, Pierre P; Walker, Ron; Grogan, Eric L

    2011-08-01

    The 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) is used to evaluate suspicious pulmonary lesions due to its diagnostic accuracy. The southeastern United States has a high prevalence of infectious granulomatous lung disease, and the accuracy of FDG-PET may be reduced in this population. We examined the diagnostic accuracy of FDG-PET in patients with known or suspected non-small cell lung cancer treated at our institution. A total of 279 patients, identified through our prospective database, underwent an operation for known or suspected lung cancer. Preoperative FDG-PET in 211 eligible patients was defined by standardized uptake value greater than 2.5 or by description ("moderate" or "intense") as avid. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, likelihood ratios, and decision diagrams were calculated for FDG-PET in all patients and in patients with indeterminate nodules. In all eligible patients (n=211), sensitivity and specificity of FDG-PET were 92% and 40%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 86% and 55%. Overall FDG-PET accuracy to diagnose lung cancer was 81%. Preoperative positive likelihood ratio for FDG-PET diagnosis of lung cancer in this population was 1.5 compared with previously published values of 7.1. In 113 indeterminate lesions, 65% had lung cancer and the sensitivity and specificity were 89% and 40%, respectively. Twenty-four benign nodules (60%) had false positive FDG-PET scans. Twenty-two of 43 benign nodules (51%) were granulomas. In a region with endemic granulomatous diseases, the specificity of FDG-PET for diagnosis of lung cancer was 40%. Clinical decisions and future clinical predictive models for lung cancer must accommodate regional variation of FDG-PET scan results. Copyright © 2011 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Effects of Recovery Behavior and Strain-Rate Dependence of Stress-Strain Curve on Prediction Accuracy of Thermal Stress Analysis During Casting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motoyama, Yuichi; Shiga, Hidetoshi; Sato, Takeshi; Kambe, Hiroshi; Yoshida, Makoto

    2017-06-01

    Recovery behavior (recovery) and strain-rate dependence of the stress-strain curve (strain-rate dependence) are incorporated into constitutive equations of alloys to predict residual stress and thermal stress during casting. Nevertheless, few studies have systematically investigated the effects of these metallurgical phenomena on the prediction accuracy of thermal stress in a casting. This study compares the thermal stress analysis results with in situ thermal stress measurement results of an Al-Si-Cu specimen during casting. The results underscore the importance for the alloy constitutive equation of incorporating strain-rate dependence to predict thermal stress that develops at high temperatures where the alloy shows strong strain-rate dependence of the stress-strain curve. However, the prediction accuracy of the thermal stress developed at low temperatures did not improve by considering the strain-rate dependence. Incorporating recovery into the constitutive equation improved the accuracy of the simulated thermal stress at low temperatures. Results of comparison implied that the constitutive equation should include strain-rate dependence to simulate defects that develop from thermal stress at high temperatures, such as hot tearing and hot cracking. Recovery should be incorporated into the alloy constitutive equation to predict the casting residual stress and deformation caused by the thermal stress developed mainly in the low temperature range.

  20. Vehicle Position Estimation Based on Magnetic Markers: Enhanced Accuracy by Compensation of Time Delays.

    PubMed

    Byun, Yeun-Sub; Jeong, Rag-Gyo; Kang, Seok-Won

    2015-11-13

    The real-time recognition of absolute (or relative) position and orientation on a network of roads is a core technology for fully automated or driving-assisted vehicles. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the design, implementation, and evaluation of a self-positioning system based on a magnetic marker reference sensing method for an autonomous vehicle. Specifically, the estimation accuracy of the magnetic sensing ruler (MSR) in the up-to-date estimation of the actual position was successfully enhanced by compensating for time delays in signal processing when detecting the vertical magnetic field (VMF) in an array of signals. In this study, the signal processing scheme was developed to minimize the effects of the distortion of measured signals when estimating the relative positional information based on magnetic signals obtained using the MSR. In other words, the center point in a 2D magnetic field contour plot corresponding to the actual position of magnetic markers was estimated by tracking the errors between pre-defined reference models and measured magnetic signals. The algorithm proposed in this study was validated by experimental measurements using a test vehicle on a pilot network of roads. From the results, the positioning error was found to be less than 0.04 m on average in an operational test.

  1. Vehicle Position Estimation Based on Magnetic Markers: Enhanced Accuracy by Compensation of Time Delays

    PubMed Central

    Byun, Yeun-Sub; Jeong, Rag-Gyo; Kang, Seok-Won

    2015-01-01

    The real-time recognition of absolute (or relative) position and orientation on a network of roads is a core technology for fully automated or driving-assisted vehicles. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the design, implementation, and evaluation of a self-positioning system based on a magnetic marker reference sensing method for an autonomous vehicle. Specifically, the estimation accuracy of the magnetic sensing ruler (MSR) in the up-to-date estimation of the actual position was successfully enhanced by compensating for time delays in signal processing when detecting the vertical magnetic field (VMF) in an array of signals. In this study, the signal processing scheme was developed to minimize the effects of the distortion of measured signals when estimating the relative positional information based on magnetic signals obtained using the MSR. In other words, the center point in a 2D magnetic field contour plot corresponding to the actual position of magnetic markers was estimated by tracking the errors between pre-defined reference models and measured magnetic signals. The algorithm proposed in this study was validated by experimental measurements using a test vehicle on a pilot network of roads. From the results, the positioning error was found to be less than 0.04 m on average in an operational test. PMID:26580622

  2. NucPosPred: Predicting species-specific genomic nucleosome positioning via four different modes of general PseKNC.

    PubMed

    Jia, Cangzhi; Yang, Qing; Zou, Quan

    2018-04-18

    The nucleosome is the basic structure of chromatin in eukaryotic cells, with essential roles in the regulation of many biological processes, such as DNA transcription, replication and repair, and RNA splicing. Because of the importance of nucleosomes, the factors that determine their positioning within genomes should be investigated. High-resolution nucleosome-positioning maps are now available for organisms including Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Drosophila melanogaster and Caenorhabditis elegans, enabling the identification of nucleosome positioning by application of computational tools. Here, we describe a novel predictor called NucPosPred, which was specifically designed for large-scale identification of nucleosome positioning in C. elegans and D. melanogaster genomes. NucPosPred was separately optimized for each species for four types of DNA sequence feature extraction, with consideration of two classification algorithms (gradient-boosting decision tree and support vector machine). The overall accuracy obtained with NucPosPred was 92.29% for C. elegans and 88.26% for D. melanogaster, outperforming previous methods and demonstrating the potential for species-specific prediction of nucleosome positioning. For the convenience of most experimental scientists, a web-server for the predictor NucPosPred is available at http://121.42.167.206/NucPosPred/index.jsp. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Administrative database code accuracy did not vary notably with changes in disease prevalence.

    PubMed

    van Walraven, Carl; English, Shane; Austin, Peter C

    2016-11-01

    Previous mathematical analyses of diagnostic tests based on the categorization of a continuous measure have found that test sensitivity and specificity varies significantly by disease prevalence. This study determined if the accuracy of diagnostic codes varied by disease prevalence. We used data from two previous studies in which the true status of renal disease and primary subarachnoid hemorrhage, respectively, had been determined. In multiple stratified random samples from the two previous studies having varying disease prevalence, we measured the accuracy of diagnostic codes for each disease using sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value. Diagnostic code sensitivity and specificity did not change notably within clinically sensible disease prevalence. In contrast, positive and negative predictive values changed significantly with disease prevalence. Disease prevalence had no important influence on the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic codes in administrative databases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Accuracy of Prediction Instruments for Diagnosing Large Vessel Occlusion in Individuals With Suspected Stroke: A Systematic Review for the 2018 Guidelines for the Early Management of Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

    PubMed

    Smith, Eric E; Kent, David M; Bulsara, Ketan R; Leung, Lester Y; Lichtman, Judith H; Reeves, Mathew J; Towfighi, Amytis; Whiteley, William N; Zahuranec, Darin B

    2018-03-01

    Endovascular thrombectomy is a highly efficacious treatment for large vessel occlusion (LVO). LVO prediction instruments, based on stroke signs and symptoms, have been proposed to identify stroke patients with LVO for rapid transport to endovascular thrombectomy-capable hospitals. This evidence review committee was commissioned by the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association to systematically review evidence for the accuracy of LVO prediction instruments. Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched on October 27, 2016. Study quality was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy-2 tool. Thirty-six relevant studies were identified. Most studies (21 of 36) recruited patients with ischemic stroke, with few studies in the prehospital setting (4 of 36) and in populations that included hemorrhagic stroke or stroke mimics (12 of 36). The most frequently studied prediction instrument was the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Most studies had either some risk of bias or unclear risk of bias. Reported discrimination of LVO mostly ranged from 0.70 to 0.85, as measured by the C statistic. In meta-analysis, sensitivity was as high as 87% and specificity was as high as 90%, but no threshold on any instruments predicted LVO with both high sensitivity and specificity. With a positive LVO prediction test, the probability of LVO could be 50% to 60% (depending on the LVO prevalence in the population), but the probability of LVO with a negative test could still be ≥10%. No scale predicted LVO with both high sensitivity and high specificity. Systems that use LVO prediction instruments for triage will miss some patients with LVO and milder stroke. More prospective studies are needed to assess the accuracy of LVO prediction instruments in the prehospital setting in all patients with suspected stroke, including patients with hemorrhagic stroke and stroke mimics. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. An accuracy assessment of different rigid body image registration methods and robotic couch positional corrections using a novel phantom

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Arumugam, Sankar; Xing Aitang; Jameson, Michael G.

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: Image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images greatly reduces interfractional patient positional uncertainties. An understanding of uncertainties in the IGRT process itself is essential to ensure appropriate use of this technology. The purpose of this study was to develop a phantom capable of assessing the accuracy of IGRT hardware and software including a 6 degrees of freedom patient positioning system and to investigate the accuracy of the Elekta XVI system in combination with the HexaPOD robotic treatment couch top. Methods: The constructed phantom enabled verification of the three automatic rigid body registrations (gray value, bone,more » seed) available in the Elekta XVI software and includes an adjustable mount that introduces known rotational offsets to the phantom from its reference position. Repeated positioning of the phantom was undertaken to assess phantom rotational accuracy. Using this phantom the accuracy of the XVI registration algorithms was assessed considering CBCT hardware factors and image resolution together with the residual error in the overall image guidance process when positional corrections were performed through the HexaPOD couch system. Results: The phantom positioning was found to be within 0.04 ({sigma}= 0.12) Degree-Sign , 0.02 ({sigma}= 0.13) Degree-Sign , and -0.03 ({sigma}= 0.06) Degree-Sign in X, Y, and Z directions, respectively, enabling assessment of IGRT with a 6 degrees of freedom patient positioning system. The gray value registration algorithm showed the least error in calculated offsets with maximum mean difference of -0.2({sigma}= 0.4) mm in translational and -0.1({sigma}= 0.1) Degree-Sign in rotational directions for all image resolutions. Bone and seed registration were found to be sensitive to CBCT image resolution. Seed registration was found to be most sensitive demonstrating a maximum mean error of -0.3({sigma}= 0.9) mm and -1.4({sigma}= 1.7) Degree-Sign in

  6. The urine dipstick test useful to rule out infections. A meta-analysis of the accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Devillé, Walter LJM; Yzermans, Joris C; van Duijn, Nico P; Bezemer, P Dick; van der Windt, Daniëlle AWM; Bouter, Lex M

    2004-01-01

    Background Many studies have evaluated the accuracy of dipstick tests as rapid detectors of bacteriuria and urinary tract infections (UTI). The lack of an adequate explanation for the heterogeneity of the dipstick accuracy stimulates an ongoing debate. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to summarise the available evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of the urine dipstick test, taking into account various pre-defined potential sources of heterogeneity. Methods Literature from 1990 through 1999 was searched in Medline and Embase, and by reference tracking. Selected publications should be concerned with the diagnosis of bacteriuria or urinary tract infections, investigate the use of dipstick tests for nitrites and/or leukocyte esterase, and present empirical data. A checklist was used to assess methodological quality. Results 70 publications were included. Accuracy of nitrites was high in pregnant women (Diagnostic Odds Ratio = 165) and elderly people (DOR = 108). Positive predictive values were ≥80% in elderly and in family medicine. Accuracy of leukocyte-esterase was high in studies in urology patients (DOR = 276). Sensitivities were highest in family medicine (86%). Negative predictive values were high in both tests in all patient groups and settings, except for in family medicine. The combination of both test results showed an important increase in sensitivity. Accuracy was high in studies in urology patients (DOR = 52), in children (DOR = 46), and if clinical information was present (DOR = 28). Sensitivity was highest in studies carried out in family medicine (90%). Predictive values of combinations of positive test results were low in all other situations. Conclusions Overall, this review demonstrates that the urine dipstick test alone seems to be useful in all populations to exclude the presence of infection if the results of both nitrites and leukocyte-esterase are negative. Sensitivities of the combination of both tests vary between 68 and 88% in

  7. Accuracy of gap analysis habitat models in predicting physical features for wildlife-habitat associations in the southwest U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boykin, K.G.; Thompson, B.C.; Propeck-Gray, S.

    2010-01-01

    Despite widespread and long-standing efforts to model wildlife-habitat associations using remotely sensed and other spatially explicit data, there are relatively few evaluations of the performance of variables included in predictive models relative to actual features on the landscape. As part of the National Gap Analysis Program, we specifically examined physical site features at randomly selected sample locations in the Southwestern U.S. to assess degree of concordance with predicted features used in modeling vertebrate habitat distribution. Our analysis considered hypotheses about relative accuracy with respect to 30 vertebrate species selected to represent the spectrum of habitat generalist to specialist and categorization of site by relative degree of conservation emphasis accorded to the site. Overall comparison of 19 variables observed at 382 sample sites indicated ???60% concordance for 12 variables. Directly measured or observed variables (slope, soil composition, rock outcrop) generally displayed high concordance, while variables that required judgments regarding descriptive categories (aspect, ecological system, landform) were less concordant. There were no differences detected in concordance among taxa groups, degree of specialization or generalization of selected taxa, or land conservation categorization of sample sites with respect to all sites. We found no support for the hypothesis that accuracy of habitat models is inversely related to degree of taxa specialization when model features for a habitat specialist could be more difficult to represent spatially. Likewise, we did not find support for the hypothesis that physical features will be predicted with higher accuracy on lands with greater dedication to biodiversity conservation than on other lands because of relative differences regarding available information. Accuracy generally was similar (>60%) to that observed for land cover mapping at the ecological system level. These patterns demonstrate

  8. Sensitivity and positive predictive values of presurgical clinical diagnosis of excised benign and malignant skin tumors: a prospective study of 835 lesions in 778 patients.

    PubMed

    Har-Shai, Y; Hai, N; Taran, A; Mayblum, S; Barak, A; Tzur, E; Schafer, I; David, R; David, E; Linn, S

    2001-12-01

    This article reports on the sensitivity and positive predictive value of clinical diagnosis of benign and malignant skin tumors by expert plastic surgeons in an Israeli clinic. Most published reports have focused on the sensitivity of clinicians' diagnoses, a general measure of the physician's skill that does not predict the rate of accuracy of a physician's diagnoses. Our study of 835 lesions in 778 patients, one of the largest Israeli series, assesses the clinical diagnosis of malignant and benign skin tumors and is one of the few that provide information on the positive predictive value, the measure that is of interest to both physicians and patients. The majority of tumors were benign (56.8 percent), 31.6 percent were malignant, and 11.6 percent were premalignant. Among the 474 benign lesions, 46 percent were nevi. The most common nevi subclass was compound nevi (53 percent), 9 percent of the nevi were dysplastic, and 5 percent were blue nevi. The most common malignant tumor was basal cell carcinoma, accounting for 78 percent of malignant tumors. Although sensitivity for clinical diagnosis of malignancy was 91.3 percent, the positive predictive value for clinical diagnosis of malignancy was 71.3 percent. The sensitivity rate for clinically diagnosing premalignant tumors was 42.3 percent, whereas the positive predictive value for these diagnoses was higher (64.1 percent). The sensitivity rate for diagnosis of all benign lesions was 85.9 percent, and the positive predictive value was 94.2 percent. The sensitivity rate for diagnosis of all nevi was 87.6 percent, and the positive predictive value was 85.7 percent: i.e., only seven of the 218 pathologically proven diagnoses of nevi (3.2 percent) were falsely diagnosed as malignant lesions. Even more interestingly, five of the 223 clinical diagnoses of nevi (2.2 percent) were pathologically proven to be malignant melanomas, and seven were found to be premalignant lesions (3.1 percent). It was concluded that

  9. Development and Positioning Accuracy Assessment of Single-Frequency Precise Point Positioning Algorithms by Combining GPS Code-Pseudorange Measurements with Real-Time SSR Corrections

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Miso; Park, Kwan-Dong

    2017-01-01

    We have developed a suite of real-time precise point positioning programs to process GPS pseudorange observables, and validated their performance through static and kinematic positioning tests. To correct inaccurate broadcast orbits and clocks, and account for signal delays occurring from the ionosphere and troposphere, we applied State Space Representation (SSR) error corrections provided by the Seoul Broadcasting System (SBS) in South Korea. Site displacements due to solid earth tide loading are also considered for the purpose of improving the positioning accuracy, particularly in the height direction. When the developed algorithm was tested under static positioning, Kalman-filtered solutions produced a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.32 and 0.40 m in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. For the moving platform, the RMSE was found to be 0.53 and 0.69 m in the horizontal and vertical directions. PMID:28598403

  10. Predicting Intervention Effectiveness from Oral Reading Accuracy and Rate Measures through the Learning Hierarchy/Instructional Hierarchy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Szadokierski, Isadora Elisabeth

    2012-01-01

    The current study used the Learning Hierarchy/Instructional Hierarchy (LH/IH) to predict intervention effectiveness based on the reading skills of students who are developing reading fluency. Pre-intervention reading accuracy and rate were assessed for 49 second and third grade participants who then participated in a brief experimental analysis…

  11. Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression.

    PubMed

    Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Portnow, Sam

    2016-03-01

    Though common sense suggests that positive thinking shelters people from depression, the four studies reported here showed that this intuition needs to be qualified: Positive thinking in the form of fantasies about the future did indeed relate to decreased symptoms of depression when measured concurrently; however, positive fantasies predicted more depressive symptoms when measured longitudinally. The pattern of results was observed for different indicators of fantasies and depression, in adults and in schoolchildren, and for periods of up to 7 months (Studies 1-4). In college students, low academic success partially mediated the predictive relation between positive fantasies and symptoms of depression (Study 4). Results add to existing research on the problematic effects of positive fantasies on performance by suggesting that indulging in positive fantasies predicts problems in mental health. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. Angiogenic factors combined with clinical risk factors to predict preterm pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women: a predictive test accuracy study.

    PubMed

    Myers, J E; Kenny, L C; McCowan, L M E; Chan, E H Y; Dekker, G A; Poston, L; Simpson, N A B; North, R A

    2013-09-01

    To assess the performance of clinical risk factors, uterine artery Doppler and angiogenic markers to predict preterm pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women. Predictive test accuracy study. Prospective multicentre cohort study Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE). Low-risk nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy were recruited. Clinical risk factor data were obtained and plasma placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble endoglin and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) were measured at 14-16 weeks of gestation. Prediction models were developed using multivariable stepwise logistic regression. Preterm pre-eclampsia (delivered before 37(+0)  weeks of gestation). Of the 3529 women recruited, 187 (5.3%) developed pre-eclampsia of whom 47 (1.3%) delivered preterm. Controls (n = 188) were randomly selected from women without preterm pre-eclampsia and included women who developed other pregnancy complications. An area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.84) was observed using previously reported clinical risk variables. The AUC improved following the addition of PlGF measured at 14-16 weeks (0.84; 95% CI 0.77-0.91), but no further improvement was observed with the addition of uterine artery Doppler or the other angiogenic markers. A sensitivity of 45% (95% CI 0.31-0.59) (5% false-positive rate) and post-test probability of 11% (95% CI 9-13) were observed using clinical risk variables and PlGF measurement. Addition of plasma PlGF at 14-16 weeks of gestation to clinical risk assessment improved the identification of nulliparous women at increased risk of developing preterm pre-eclampsia, but the performance is not sufficient to warrant introduction as a clinical screening test. These findings are marker dependent, not assay dependent; additional markers are needed to achieve clinical utility. © 2013 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2013 RCOG.

  13. Dispositional malevolence and impression formation: Dark Tetrad associations with accuracy and positivity in first impressions.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Katherine H; Le, Marina T; Buckels, Erin E; Kim, Mikayla; Biesanz, Jeremy C

    2018-02-19

    The Dark Tetrad traits (subclinical psychopathy, narcissism, Machiavellianism, and everyday sadism) have interpersonal consequences. At present, however, how these traits are associated with the accuracy and positivity of first impressions is not well understood. The present article addresses three primary questions. First, to what extent are perceiver levels of Dark Tetrad traits associated with differing levels of perceptive accuracy? Second, to what extent are target levels of Dark Tetrad traits associated with differing levels of expressive accuracy? Finally, to what extent can Dark Tetrad traits be differentiated when examining perceptions of and by others? In a round-robin design, undergraduate participants (N = 412) in small groups engaged in brief, naturalistic, unstructured dyadic interactions before providing impressions of their partner. Dark Tetrad traits were associated with being viewed and viewing others less distinctively accurately and more negatively. Interpersonal perceptions that included an individual scoring highly on one of the Dark Tetrad traits differed in important ways from interactions among individuals with more benevolent personalities. Notably, despite the similarities between the Dark Tetrad, traits had unique associations with interpersonal perceptions. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Diagnostic Accuracy of the Veteran Affairs' Traumatic Brain Injury Screen.

    PubMed

    Louise Bender Pape, Theresa; Smith, Bridget; Babcock-Parziale, Judith; Evans, Charlesnika T; Herrold, Amy A; Phipps Maieritsch, Kelly; High, Walter M

    2018-01-31

    To comprehensively estimate the diagnostic accuracy and reliability of the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) Clinical Reminder Screen (TCRS). Cross-sectional, prospective, observational study using the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy criteria. Three VA Polytrauma Network Sites. Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Enduring Freedom veterans (N=433). TCRS, Comprehensive TBI Evaluation, Structured TBI Diagnostic Interview, Symptom Attribution and Classification Algorithm, and Clinician-Administered Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Scale. Forty-five percent of veterans screened positive on the TCRS for TBI. For detecting occurrence of historical TBI, the TCRS had a sensitivity of .56 to .74, a specificity of .63 to .93, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 25% to 45%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 91% to 94%, and a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 4 to 13. For accuracy of attributing active symptoms to the TBI, the TCRS had a sensitivity of .64 to .87, a specificity of .59 to .89, a PPV of 26% to 32%, an NPV of 92% to 95%, and a DOR of 6 to 9. The sensitivity was higher for veterans with PTSD (.80-.86) relative to veterans without PTSD (.57-.82). The specificity, however, was higher among veterans without PTSD (.75-.81) relative to veterans with PTSD (.36-.49). All indices of diagnostic accuracy changed when participants with questionably valid (QV) test profiles were eliminated from analyses. The utility of the TCRS to screen for mild TBI (mTBI) depends on the stringency of the diagnostic reference standard to which it is being compared, the presence/absence of PTSD, and QV test profiles. Further development, validation, and use of reproducible diagnostic algorithms for symptom attribution after possible mTBI would improve diagnostic accuracy. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Accuracy of CNV Detection from GWAS Data.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Dandan; Qian, Yudong; Akula, Nirmala; Alliey-Rodriguez, Ney; Tang, Jinsong; Gershon, Elliot S; Liu, Chunyu

    2011-01-13

    Several computer programs are available for detecting copy number variants (CNVs) using genome-wide SNP arrays. We evaluated the performance of four CNV detection software suites--Birdsuite, Partek, HelixTree, and PennCNV-Affy--in the identification of both rare and common CNVs. Each program's performance was assessed in two ways. The first was its recovery rate, i.e., its ability to call 893 CNVs previously identified in eight HapMap samples by paired-end sequencing of whole-genome fosmid clones, and 51,440 CNVs identified by array Comparative Genome Hybridization (aCGH) followed by validation procedures, in 90 HapMap CEU samples. The second evaluation was program performance calling rare and common CNVs in the Bipolar Genome Study (BiGS) data set (1001 bipolar cases and 1033 controls, all of European ancestry) as measured by the Affymetrix SNP 6.0 array. Accuracy in calling rare CNVs was assessed by positive predictive value, based on the proportion of rare CNVs validated by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), while accuracy in calling common CNVs was assessed by false positive/false negative rates based on qPCR validation results from a subset of common CNVs. Birdsuite recovered the highest percentages of known HapMap CNVs containing >20 markers in two reference CNV datasets. The recovery rate increased with decreased CNV frequency. In the tested rare CNV data, Birdsuite and Partek had higher positive predictive values than the other software suites. In a test of three common CNVs in the BiGS dataset, Birdsuite's call was 98.8% consistent with qPCR quantification in one CNV region, but the other two regions showed an unacceptable degree of accuracy. We found relatively poor consistency between the two "gold standards," the sequence data of Kidd et al., and aCGH data of Conrad et al. Algorithms for calling CNVs especially common ones need substantial improvement, and a "gold standard" for detection of CNVs remains to be established.

  16. Accuracy of Physical Examination, Ultrasonography, and Mammography in Predicting Residual Pathologic Tumor Size in Patients Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Chagpar, Anees B.; Middleton, Lavinia P.; Sahin, Aysegul A.; Dempsey, Peter; Buzdar, Aman U.; Mirza, Attiqa N.; Ames, Fredrick C.; Babiera, Gildy V.; Feig, Barry W.; Hunt, Kelly K.; Kuerer, Henry M.; Meric-Bernstam, Funda; Ross, Merrick I.; Singletary, S Eva

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To assess the accuracy of physical examination, ultrasonography, and mammography in predicting residual size of breast tumors following neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Background: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is an accepted part of the management of stage II and III breast cancer. Accurate prediction of residual pathologic tumor size after neoadjuvant chemotherapy is critical in guiding surgical therapy. Although physical examination, ultrasonography, and mammography have all been used to predict residual tumor size, there have been conflicting reports about the accuracy of these methods in the neoadjuvant setting. Methods: We reviewed the records of 189 patients who participated in 1 of 2 protocols using doxorubicin-containing neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and who had assessment by physical examination, ultrasonography, and/or mammography no more than 60 days before their surgical resection. Size correlations were performed using Spearman rho analysis. Clinical and pathologic measurements were also compared categorically using the weighted kappa statistic. Results: Size estimates by physical examination, ultrasonography, and mammography were only moderately correlated with residual pathologic tumor size after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (correlation coefficients: 0.42, 0.42, and 0.41, respectively), with an accuracy of ±1 cm in 66% of patients by physical examination, 75% by ultrasonography, and 70% by mammography. Kappa values (0.24–0.35) indicated poor agreement between clinical and pathologic measurements. Conclusion: Physical examination, ultrasonography, and mammography were only moderately useful for predicting residual pathologic tumor size after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PMID:16432360

  17. At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Borgwardt, Stefan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana; Woods, Scott W; McGlashan, Thomas H; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip

    2015-01-01

    An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR−). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR− subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan’s nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR−: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan’s nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide. PMID:26407788

  18. Analysis of spatial distribution of land cover maps accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatami, R.; Mountrakis, G.; Stehman, S. V.

    2017-12-01

    Land cover maps have become one of the most important products of remote sensing science. However, classification errors will exist in any classified map and affect the reliability of subsequent map usage. Moreover, classification accuracy often varies over different regions of a classified map. These variations of accuracy will affect the reliability of subsequent analyses of different regions based on the classified maps. The traditional approach of map accuracy assessment based on an error matrix does not capture the spatial variation in classification accuracy. Here, per-pixel accuracy prediction methods are proposed based on interpolating accuracy values from a test sample to produce wall-to-wall accuracy maps. Different accuracy prediction methods were developed based on four factors: predictive domain (spatial versus spectral), interpolation function (constant, linear, Gaussian, and logistic), incorporation of class information (interpolating each class separately versus grouping them together), and sample size. Incorporation of spectral domain as explanatory feature spaces of classification accuracy interpolation was done for the first time in this research. Performance of the prediction methods was evaluated using 26 test blocks, with 10 km × 10 km dimensions, dispersed throughout the United States. The performance of the predictions was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. Relative to existing accuracy prediction methods, our proposed methods resulted in improvements of AUC of 0.15 or greater. Evaluation of the four factors comprising the accuracy prediction methods demonstrated that: i) interpolations should be done separately for each class instead of grouping all classes together; ii) if an all-classes approach is used, the spectral domain will result in substantially greater AUC than the spatial domain; iii) for the smaller sample size and per-class predictions, the spectral and spatial domain

  19. Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario.

    PubMed

    Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

    2016-11-22

    Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals' average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day's WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas.

  20. Statistical process control and verifying positional accuracy of a cobra motion couch using step-wedge quality assurance tool.

    PubMed

    Binny, Diana; Lancaster, Craig M; Trapp, Jamie V; Crowe, Scott B

    2017-09-01

    This study utilizes process control techniques to identify action limits for TomoTherapy couch positioning quality assurance tests. A test was introduced to monitor accuracy of the applied couch offset detection in the TomoTherapy Hi-Art treatment system using the TQA "Step-Wedge Helical" module and MVCT detector. Individual X-charts, process capability (cp), probability (P), and acceptability (cpk) indices were used to monitor a 4-year couch IEC offset data to detect systematic and random errors in the couch positional accuracy for different action levels. Process capability tests were also performed on the retrospective data to define tolerances based on user-specified levels. A second study was carried out whereby physical couch offsets were applied using the TQA module and the MVCT detector was used to detect the observed variations. Random and systematic variations were observed for the SPC-based upper and lower control limits, and investigations were carried out to maintain the ongoing stability of the process for a 4-year and a three-monthly period. Local trend analysis showed mean variations up to ±0.5 mm in the three-monthly analysis period for all IEC offset measurements. Variations were also observed in the detected versus applied offsets using the MVCT detector in the second study largely in the vertical direction, and actions were taken to remediate this error. Based on the results, it was recommended that imaging shifts in each coordinate direction be only applied after assessing the machine for applied versus detected test results using the step helical module. User-specified tolerance levels of at least ±2 mm were recommended for a test frequency of once every 3 months to improve couch positional accuracy. SPC enables detection of systematic variations prior to reaching machine tolerance levels. Couch encoding system recalibrations reduced variations to user-specified levels and a monitoring period of 3 months using SPC facilitated in detecting

  1. Prediction of novel pre-microRNAs with high accuracy through boosting and SVM.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuanwei; Yang, Yifan; Zhang, Huan; Jiang, Xiaohua; Xu, Bo; Xue, Yu; Cao, Yunxia; Zhai, Qian; Zhai, Yong; Xu, Mingqing; Cooke, Howard J; Shi, Qinghua

    2011-05-15

    High-throughput deep-sequencing technology has generated an unprecedented number of expressed short sequence reads, presenting not only an opportunity but also a challenge for prediction of novel microRNAs. To verify the existence of candidate microRNAs, we have to show that these short sequences can be processed from candidate pre-microRNAs. However, it is laborious and time consuming to verify these using existing experimental techniques. Therefore, here, we describe a new method, miRD, which is constructed using two feature selection strategies based on support vector machines (SVMs) and boosting method. It is a high-efficiency tool for novel pre-microRNA prediction with accuracy up to 94.0% among different species. miRD is implemented in PHP/PERL+MySQL+R and can be freely accessed at http://mcg.ustc.edu.cn/rpg/mird/mird.php.

  2. Improving risk prediction accuracy for new soldiers in the U.S. Army by adding self-report survey data to administrative data.

    PubMed

    Bernecker, Samantha L; Rosellini, Anthony J; Nock, Matthew K; Chiu, Wai Tat; Gutierrez, Peter M; Hwang, Irving; Joiner, Thomas E; Naifeh, James A; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Kessler, Ronald C

    2018-04-03

    High rates of mental disorders, suicidality, and interpersonal violence early in the military career have raised interest in implementing preventive interventions with high-risk new enlistees. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) developed risk-targeting systems for these outcomes based on machine learning methods using administrative data predictors. However, administrative data omit many risk factors, raising the question whether risk targeting could be improved by adding self-report survey data to prediction models. If so, the Army may gain from routinely administering surveys that assess additional risk factors. The STARRS New Soldier Survey was administered to 21,790 Regular Army soldiers who agreed to have survey data linked to administrative records. As reported previously, machine learning models using administrative data as predictors found that small proportions of high-risk soldiers accounted for high proportions of negative outcomes. Other machine learning models using self-report survey data as predictors were developed previously for three of these outcomes: major physical violence and sexual violence perpetration among men and sexual violence victimization among women. Here we examined the extent to which this survey information increases prediction accuracy, over models based solely on administrative data, for those three outcomes. We used discrete-time survival analysis to estimate a series of models predicting first occurrence, assessing how model fit improved and concentration of risk increased when adding the predicted risk score based on survey data to the predicted risk score based on administrative data. The addition of survey data improved prediction significantly for all outcomes. In the most extreme case, the percentage of reported sexual violence victimization among the 5% of female soldiers with highest predicted risk increased from 17.5% using only administrative predictors to 29.4% adding survey

  3. Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling.

    PubMed

    Nakas, Christos T; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the "big data" era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures.

  4. Alcohol use among university students: Considering a positive deviance approach.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Maryanne; Harris, Gregory E

    2016-09-01

    Harmful alcohol consumption among university students continues to be a significant issue. This study examined whether variables identified in the positive deviance literature would predict responsible alcohol consumption among university students. Surveyed students were categorized into three groups: abstainers, responsible drinkers and binge drinkers. Multinomial logistic regression modelling was significant (χ(2) = 274.49, degrees of freedom = 24, p < .001), with several variables predicting group membership. While the model classification accuracy rate (i.e. 71.2%) exceeded the proportional by chance accuracy rate (i.e. 38.4%), providing further support for the model, the model itself best predicted binge drinker membership over the other two groups. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. Prediction of beta-turns at over 80% accuracy based on an ensemble of predicted secondary structures and multiple alignments.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Ce; Kurgan, Lukasz

    2008-10-10

    beta-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays significant role in protein folding, stability, and molecular recognition. To date, several methods for prediction of beta-turns from protein sequences were developed, but they are characterized by relatively poor prediction quality. The novelty of the proposed sequence-based beta-turn predictor stems from the usage of a window based information extracted from four predicted three-state secondary structures, which together with a selected set of position specific scoring matrix (PSSM) values serve as an input to the support vector machine (SVM) predictor. We show that (1) all four predicted secondary structures are useful; (2) the most useful information extracted from the predicted secondary structure includes the structure of the predicted residue, secondary structure content in a window around the predicted residue, and features that indicate whether the predicted residue is inside a secondary structure segment; (3) the PSSM values of Asn, Asp, Gly, Ile, Leu, Met, Pro, and Val were among the top ranked features, which corroborates with recent studies. The Asn, Asp, Gly, and Pro indicate potential beta-turns, while the remaining four amino acids are useful to predict non-beta-turns. Empirical evaluation using three nonredundant datasets shows favorable Q total, Q predicted and MCC values when compared with over a dozen of modern competing methods. Our method is the first to break the 80% Q total barrier and achieves Q total = 80.9%, MCC = 0.47, and Q predicted higher by over 6% when compared with the second best method. We use feature selection to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vector used as the input for the proposed prediction method. The applied feature set is smaller by 86, 62 and 37% when compared with the second and two third-best (with respect to MCC) competing methods, respectively. Experiments show that the proposed method constitutes an improvement over the competing prediction

  6. Accuracy of Igenity genomically estimated breeding values for predicting Australian Angus BREEDPLAN traits.

    PubMed

    Boerner, V; Johnston, D; Wu, X-L; Bauck, S

    2015-02-01

    Genomically estimated breeding values (GEBV) for Angus beef cattle are available from at least 2 commercial suppliers (Igenity [http://www.igenity.com] and Zoetis [http://www.zoetis.com]). The utility of these GEBV for improving genetic evaluation depends on their accuracies, which can be estimated by the genetic correlation with phenotypic target traits. Genomically estimated breeding values of 1,032 Angus bulls calculated from prediction equations (PE) derived by 2 different procedures in the U.S. Angus population were supplied by Igenity. Both procedures were based on Illuminia BovineSNP50 BeadChip genotypes. In procedure sg, GEBV were calculated from PE that used subsets of only 392 SNP, where these subsets were individually selected for each trait by BayesCπ. In procedure rg GEBV were calculated from PE derived in a ridge regression approach using all available SNP. Because the total set of 1,032 bulls with GEBV contained 732 individuals used in the Igenity training population, GEBV subsets were formed characterized by a decreasing average relationship between individuals in the subsets and individuals in the training population. Accuracies of GEBV were estimated as genetic correlations between GEBV and their phenotypic target traits modeling GEBV as trait observations in a bivariate REML approach, in which phenotypic observations were those recorded in the commercial Australian Angus seed stock sector. Using results from the GEBV subset excluding all training individuals as a reference, estimated accuracies were generally in agreement with those already published, with both types of GEBV (sg and rg) yielding similar results. Accuracies for growth traits ranged from 0.29 to 0.45, for reproductive traits from 0.11 to 0.53, and for carcass traits from 0.3 to 0.75. Accuracies generally decreased with an increasing genetic distance between the training and the validation population. However, for some carcass traits characterized by a low number of phenotypic

  7. Electrophysiological evidence for preserved primacy of lexical prediction in aging.

    PubMed

    Dave, Shruti; Brothers, Trevor A; Traxler, Matthew J; Ferreira, Fernanda; Henderson, John M; Swaab, Tamara Y

    2018-05-28

    Young adults show consistent neural benefits of predictable contexts when processing upcoming words, but these benefits are less clear-cut in older adults. Here we disentangle the neural correlates of prediction accuracy and contextual support during word processing, in order to test current theories that suggest that neural mechanisms underlying predictive processing are specifically impaired in older adults. During a sentence comprehension task, older and younger readers were asked to predict passage-final words and report the accuracy of these predictions. Age-related reductions were observed for N250 and N400 effects of prediction accuracy, as well as for N400 effects of contextual support independent of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, temporal primacy of predictive processing (i.e., earlier facilitation for successful predictions) was preserved across the lifespan, suggesting that predictive mechanisms are unlikely to be uniquely impaired in older adults. In addition, older adults showed prediction effects on frontal post-N400 positivities (PNPs) that were similar in amplitude to PNPs in young adults. Previous research has shown correlations between verbal fluency and lexical prediction in older adult readers, suggesting that the production system may be linked to capacity for lexical prediction, especially in aging. The current study suggests that verbal fluency modulates PNP effects of contextual support, but not prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings suggest that aging does not result in specific declines in lexical prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Improving accuracies of genomic predictions for drought tolerance in maize by joint modeling of additive and dominance effects in multi-environment trials.

    PubMed

    Dias, Kaio Olímpio Das Graças; Gezan, Salvador Alejandro; Guimarães, Claudia Teixeira; Nazarian, Alireza; da Costa E Silva, Luciano; Parentoni, Sidney Netto; de Oliveira Guimarães, Paulo Evaristo; de Oliveira Anoni, Carina; Pádua, José Maria Villela; de Oliveira Pinto, Marcos; Noda, Roberto Willians; Ribeiro, Carlos Alexandre Gomes; de Magalhães, Jurandir Vieira; Garcia, Antonio Augusto Franco; de Souza, João Cândido; Guimarães, Lauro José Moreira; Pastina, Maria Marta

    2018-07-01

    Breeding for drought tolerance is a challenging task that requires costly, extensive, and precise phenotyping. Genomic selection (GS) can be used to maximize selection efficiency and the genetic gains in maize (Zea mays L.) breeding programs for drought tolerance. Here, we evaluated the accuracy of genomic selection (GS) using additive (A) and additive + dominance (AD) models to predict the performance of untested maize single-cross hybrids for drought tolerance in multi-environment trials. Phenotypic data of five drought tolerance traits were measured in 308 hybrids along eight trials under water-stressed (WS) and well-watered (WW) conditions over two years and two locations in Brazil. Hybrids' genotypes were inferred based on their parents' genotypes (inbred lines) using single-nucleotide polymorphism markers obtained via genotyping-by-sequencing. GS analyses were performed using genomic best linear unbiased prediction by fitting a factor analytic (FA) multiplicative mixed model. Two cross-validation (CV) schemes were tested: CV1 and CV2. The FA framework allowed for investigating the stability of additive and dominance effects across environments, as well as the additive-by-environment and the dominance-by-environment interactions, with interesting applications for parental and hybrid selection. Results showed differences in the predictive accuracy between A and AD models, using both CV1 and CV2, for the five traits in both water conditions. For grain yield (GY) under WS and using CV1, the AD model doubled the predictive accuracy in comparison to the A model. Through CV2, GS models benefit from borrowing information of correlated trials, resulting in an increase of 40% and 9% in the predictive accuracy of GY under WS for A and AD models, respectively. These results highlight the importance of multi-environment trial analyses using GS models that incorporate additive and dominance effects for genomic predictions of GY under drought in maize single

  9. Classification Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency and Maze in Predicting Performance on Large-Scale Reading Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Decker, Dawn M.; Hixson, Michael D.; Shaw, Amber; Johnson, Gloria

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether using a multiple-measure framework yielded better classification accuracy than oral reading fluency (ORF) or maze alone in predicting pass/fail rates for middle-school students on a large-scale reading assessment. Participants were 178 students in Grades 7 and 8 from a Midwestern school district.…

  10. The predictive accuracy of the black hole sign and the spot sign for hematoma expansion in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Ma, Lu; Guo, Rui; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-09-01

    In patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH), hematoma expansion (HE) is associated with poor outcome. Spot sign and black hole sign are neuroimaging predictors for HE. This study was aimed to compare the predictive value of two signs for HE. Within 6 h after onset of sICH, patients were screened for the computed tomography angiography spot sign and the non-contrast computed tomography black hole sign. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of two signs for HE prediction were calculated. The accuracy of two signs in predicting HE was analyzed by receiver-operator analysis. A total of 129 patients were included in this study. Spot sign was identified in 30 (23.3%) patients and black hole sign in 29 (22.5%) patients, respectively. Of 32 patients with HE, spot sign was observed in 19 (59.4%) and black hole sign was found in 14 (43.8%). The occurrence of black hole sign was significantly associated with spot sign (P < 0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of spot sign for predicting HE were 59.38, 88.66, 63.33, and 86.87% respectively. In contrast, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of black hole sign for predicting HE were 43.75, 84.54, 48.28, and 82.00%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.740 for spot sign and 0.641 for black hole sign. (P = 0.228) Both spot sign and black hole sign appeared to have good predictive value for HE, and spot sign seemed to be a better predictor.

  11. ABodyBuilder: Automated antibody structure prediction with data–driven accuracy estimation

    PubMed Central

    Leem, Jinwoo; Dunbar, James; Georges, Guy; Shi, Jiye; Deane, Charlotte M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Computational modeling of antibody structures plays a critical role in therapeutic antibody design. Several antibody modeling pipelines exist, but no freely available methods currently model nanobodies, provide estimates of expected model accuracy, or highlight potential issues with the antibody's experimental development. Here, we describe our automated antibody modeling pipeline, ABodyBuilder, designed to overcome these issues. The algorithm itself follows the standard 4 steps of template selection, orientation prediction, complementarity-determining region (CDR) loop modeling, and side chain prediction. ABodyBuilder then annotates the ‘confidence’ of the model as a probability that a component of the antibody (e.g., CDRL3 loop) will be modeled within a root–mean square deviation threshold. It also flags structural motifs on the model that are known to cause issues during in vitro development. ABodyBuilder was tested on 4 separate datasets, including the 11 antibodies from the Antibody Modeling Assessment–II competition. ABodyBuilder builds models that are of similar quality to other methodologies, with sub–Angstrom predictions for the ‘canonical’ CDR loops. Its ability to model nanobodies, and rapidly generate models (∼30 seconds per model) widens its potential usage. ABodyBuilder can also help users in decision–making for the development of novel antibodies because it provides model confidence and potential sequence liabilities. ABodyBuilder is freely available at http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/webapps/abodybuilder. PMID:27392298

  12. Predicting Positive Outcomes for Students with Emotional Disturbance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nickerson, Amanda B.; Brosof, Amy M.; Shapiro, Valerie B.

    2004-01-01

    This longitudinal study assessed changes in skills for students with emotional disturbance (ED) over a one-year time period in a private special education school and examined variables that predicted positive outcomes for these students. At Time 1, teachers rated 84 students with ED using standardized behavior rating scales to assess problem…

  13. Impact of different training strategies on the accuracy of a Bayesian network for predicting hospital admission.

    PubMed

    Leegon, Jeffrey; Aronsky, Dominik

    2006-01-01

    The healthcare environment is constantly changing. Probabilistic clinical decision support systems need to recognize and incorporate the changing patterns and adjust the decision model to maintain high levels of accuracy. Using data from >75,000 ED patients during a 19-month study period we examined the impact of various static and dynamic training strategies on a decision support system designed to predict hospital admission status for ED patients. Training durations ranged from 1 to 12 weeks. During the study period major institutional changes occurred that affected the system's performance level. The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was higher and more stable when longer training periods were used. The system showed higher accuracy when retrained an updated with more recent data as compared to static training period. To adjust for temporal trends the accuracy of decision support systems can benefit from longer training periods and retraining with more recent data.

  14. Preoperative prediction of histopathological outcome in basal cell carcinoma: flat surface and multiple small erosions predict superficial basal cell carcinoma in lighter skin types.

    PubMed

    Ahnlide, I; Zalaudek, I; Nilsson, F; Bjellerup, M; Nielsen, K

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of the histopathological subtype of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is important for tailoring optimal treatment, especially in patients with suspected superficial BCC (sBCC). To assess the accuracy of the preoperative prediction of subtypes of BCC in clinical practice, to evaluate whether dermoscopic examination enhances accuracy and to find dermoscopic criteria for discriminating sBCC from other subtypes. The main presurgical diagnosis was compared with the histopathological, postoperative diagnosis of routinely excised skin tumours in a predominantly fair-skinned patient cohort of northern Europe during a study period of 3 years (2011-13). The study period was split in two: during period 1, dermoscopy was optional (850 cases with a pre- or postoperative diagnosis of BCC), while during period 2 (after an educational dermoscopic update) dermoscopy was mandatory (651 cases). A classification tree based on clinical and dermoscopic features for prediction of sBCC was applied. For a total of 3544 excised skin tumours, the sensitivity for the diagnosis of BCC (any subtype) was 93·3%, specificity 91·8%, and the positive predictive value (PPV) 89·0%. The diagnostic accuracy as well as the PPV and the positive likelihood ratio for sBCC were significantly higher when dermoscopy was mandatory. A flat surface and multiple small erosions predicted sBCC. The study shows a high accuracy for an overall diagnosis of BCC and increased accuracy in prediction of sBCC for the period when dermoscopy was applied in all cases. The most discriminating findings for sBCC, based on clinical and dermoscopic features in this fair-skinned population, were a flat surface and multiple small erosions. © 2016 British Association of Dermatologists.

  15. Modeling additive and non-additive effects in a hybrid population using genome-wide genotyping: prediction accuracy implications

    PubMed Central

    Bouvet, J-M; Makouanzi, G; Cros, D; Vigneron, Ph

    2016-01-01

    Hybrids are broadly used in plant breeding and accurate estimation of variance components is crucial for optimizing genetic gain. Genome-wide information may be used to explore models designed to assess the extent of additive and non-additive variance and test their prediction accuracy for the genomic selection. Ten linear mixed models, involving pedigree- and marker-based relationship matrices among parents, were developed to estimate additive (A), dominance (D) and epistatic (AA, AD and DD) effects. Five complementary models, involving the gametic phase to estimate marker-based relationships among hybrid progenies, were developed to assess the same effects. The models were compared using tree height and 3303 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers from 1130 cloned individuals obtained via controlled crosses of 13 Eucalyptus urophylla females with 9 Eucalyptus grandis males. Akaike information criterion (AIC), variance ratios, asymptotic correlation matrices of estimates, goodness-of-fit, prediction accuracy and mean square error (MSE) were used for the comparisons. The variance components and variance ratios differed according to the model. Models with a parent marker-based relationship matrix performed better than those that were pedigree-based, that is, an absence of singularities, lower AIC, higher goodness-of-fit and accuracy and smaller MSE. However, AD and DD variances were estimated with high s.es. Using the same criteria, progeny gametic phase-based models performed better in fitting the observations and predicting genetic values. However, DD variance could not be separated from the dominance variance and null estimates were obtained for AA and AD effects. This study highlighted the advantages of progeny models using genome-wide information. PMID:26328760

  16. Predictive accuracy of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 for violence in forensic psychiatric wards in Japan.

    PubMed

    Arai, Kaoru; Takano, Ayumi; Nagata, Takako; Hirabayashi, Naotsugu

    2017-12-01

    Most structured assessment tools for assessing risk of violence were developed in Western countries, and evidence for their effectiveness is not well established in Asian countries. Our aim was to examine the predictive accuracy of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) for violence in forensic mental health inpatient units in Japan. A retrospective record study was conducted with a complete 2008-2013 cohort of forensic psychiatric inpatients at the National Center Hospital of Neurology and Psychiatry, Tokyo. Forensic psychiatrists were trained in use of the HCR-20 and asked to complete it as part of their admission assessment. The completed forms were then retained by the researchers and not used in clinical practice; for this, clinicians relied solely on national legally required guidelines. Violent outcomes were determined at 3 and 6 months after the assessment. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to calculate the predictive accuracy of the HCR-20 for violence. Area under the curve analyses suggested that the HCR-20 total score is a good predictor of violence in this cohort, with the clinical and risk sub-scales showing good predictive accuracy, but the historical sub-scale not doing so. Area under the curve figures were similar at 3 months and at 6 months. Our results are consistent with studies previously conducted in Western countries. This suggests that the HCR-20 is an effective tool for supporting risk of violence assessment in Japanese forensic psychiatric wards. Its widespread use in clinical practice could enhance safety and would certainly promote transparency in risk-related decision-making. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. An Evaluation of Two Internal Surrogates for Determining the Three-Dimensional Position of Peripheral Lung Tumors

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Spoelstra, Femke; Soernsen de Koste, John R. van; Vincent, Andrew

    2009-06-01

    Purpose: Both carina and diaphragm positions have been used as surrogates during respiratory-gated radiotherapy. We studied the correlation of both surrogates with three-dimensional (3D) tumor position. Methods and Materials: A total of 59 repeat artifact-free four-dimensional (4D) computed tomography (CT) scans, acquired during uncoached breathing, were identified in 23 patients with Stage I lung cancer. Repeat scans were co-registered to the initial 4D CT scan, and tumor, carina, and ipsilateral diaphragm were manually contoured in all phases of each 4D CT data set. Correlation between positions of carina and diaphragm with 3D tumor position was studied by use of log-likelihoodmore » ratio statistics. Models to predict 3D tumor position from internal surrogates at end inspiration (EI) and end expiration (EE) were developed, and model accuracy was tested by calculating SDs of differences between predicted and actual tumor positions. Results: Motion of both the carina and diaphragm significantly correlated with tumor motion, but log-likelihood ratios indicated that the carina was more predictive for tumor position. When craniocaudal tumor position was predicted by use of craniocaudal carina positions, the SDs of the differences between the predicted and observed positions were 2.2 mm and 2.4 mm at EI and EE, respectively. The corresponding SDs derived with the diaphragm positions were 3.7 mm and 3.9 mm at EI and EE, respectively. Prediction errors in the other directions were comparable. Prediction accuracy was similar at EI and EE. Conclusions: The carina is a better surrogate of 3D tumor position than diaphragm position. Because residual prediction errors were observed in this analysis, additional studies will be performed using audio-coached scans.« less

  18. Diagnostic Accuracy of Global Pharma Health Fund Minilab™ in Assessing Pharmacopoeial Quality of Antimicrobials.

    PubMed

    Pan, Hui; Ba-Thein, William

    2018-01-01

    Global Pharma Health Fund (GPHF) Minilab™, a semi-quantitative thin-layer chromatography (TLC)-based commercially available test kit, is widely used in drug quality surveillance globally, but its diagnostic accuracy is unclear. We investigated the diagnostic accuracy of Minilab system for antimicrobials, using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) as reference standard. Following the Minilab protocols and the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China protocols, Minilab-TLC and HPLC were used to test five common antimicrobials (506 batches) for relative concentration of active pharmaceutical ingredients. The prevalence of poor-quality antimicrobials determined, respectively, by Minilab TLC and HPLC was amoxicillin (0% versus 14.9%), azithromycin (0% versus 17.4%), cefuroxime axetil (14.3% versus 0%), levofloxacin (0% versus 3.0%), and metronidazole (0% versus 38.0%). The Minilab TLC had false-positive and false-negative detection rates of 2.6% (13/506) and 15.2% (77/506) accordingly, resulting in the following test characteristics: sensitivity 0%, specificity 97.0%, positive predictive value 0, negative predictive value 0.8, positive likelihood ratio 0, negative likelihood ratio 1.0, diagnostic odds ratio 0, and adjusted diagnostic odds ratio 0.2. This study demonstrates unsatisfying diagnostic accuracy of Minilab system in screening poor-quality antimicrobials of common use. Using Minilab as a stand-alone system for monitoring drug quality should be reconsidered.

  19. Precision and accuracy in smFRET based structural studies—A benchmark study of the Fast-Nano-Positioning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, Julia; Eilert, Tobias; Michaelis, Jens

    2018-03-01

    Modern hybrid structural analysis methods have opened new possibilities to analyze and resolve flexible protein complexes where conventional crystallographic methods have reached their limits. Here, the Fast-Nano-Positioning System (Fast-NPS), a Bayesian parameter estimation-based analysis method and software, is an interesting method since it allows for the localization of unknown fluorescent dye molecules attached to macromolecular complexes based on single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) measurements. However, the precision, accuracy, and reliability of structural models derived from results based on such complex calculation schemes are oftentimes difficult to evaluate. Therefore, we present two proof-of-principle benchmark studies where we use smFRET data to localize supposedly unknown positions on a DNA as well as on a protein-nucleic acid complex. Since we use complexes where structural information is available, we can compare Fast-NPS localization to the existing structural data. In particular, we compare different dye models and discuss how both accuracy and precision can be optimized.

  20. 3D accuracy of implant positions in template-guided implant placement as a function of the remaining teeth and the surgical procedure: a retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Schnutenhaus, Sigmar; Edelmann, Cornelia; Rudolph, Heike; Dreyhaupt, Jens; Luthardt, Ralph G

    2018-01-22

    The aim of this study was to investigate differences between the virtually planned and clinically achieved implant positions in completely template-guided implantations as a function of the type of edentulous space, the residual natural dentition, and the surgical implementation. Fifty-six patient cases with a total of 122 implants were evaluated retrospectively. The implantations were completely template-based. The data of the planned implant positions were overlaid with the actual clinical implant positions, followed by measurements of the 3D deviations in terms of coronal (x c ) and apical distance, height (x h ), and angulation (ang) and statistical analysis. The mean x c was 1.2 mm (SD 0.7 mm); the mean x a was 1.8 mm (SD 0.9 mm), the mean x h was 0.8 mm (SD 0.7 mm); and the mean ang was 4.8° (SD 3.1). The type of edentulous space and the jaw (maxilla/mandible) had no significant effect on the results in terms of implant positions. The presence of an adjacent natural tooth at the time of implantation had a significant influence on x h (p = 0.04) and ang (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found regarding the surgical approach for any of the parameters examined. The results of our study are in the same range as those of other studies. Template-guided implantation offers a high degree of accuracy even in the presence of different configurations of the residual dentition or different surgical approaches. A clinical benefit is therefore present, especially from a prosthetic point of view. The clinically achievable accuracy can be described as sufficient for further prosthetic treatment, given the intrinsic and methodological tolerances, making prosthetic rehabilitation safe and predictable.

  1. Prediction of beta-turns at over 80% accuracy based on an ensemble of predicted secondary structures and multiple alignments

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Ce; Kurgan, Lukasz

    2008-01-01

    Background β-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays significant role in protein folding, stability, and molecular recognition. To date, several methods for prediction of β-turns from protein sequences were developed, but they are characterized by relatively poor prediction quality. The novelty of the proposed sequence-based β-turn predictor stems from the usage of a window based information extracted from four predicted three-state secondary structures, which together with a selected set of position specific scoring matrix (PSSM) values serve as an input to the support vector machine (SVM) predictor. Results We show that (1) all four predicted secondary structures are useful; (2) the most useful information extracted from the predicted secondary structure includes the structure of the predicted residue, secondary structure content in a window around the predicted residue, and features that indicate whether the predicted residue is inside a secondary structure segment; (3) the PSSM values of Asn, Asp, Gly, Ile, Leu, Met, Pro, and Val were among the top ranked features, which corroborates with recent studies. The Asn, Asp, Gly, and Pro indicate potential β-turns, while the remaining four amino acids are useful to predict non-β-turns. Empirical evaluation using three nonredundant datasets shows favorable Qtotal, Qpredicted and MCC values when compared with over a dozen of modern competing methods. Our method is the first to break the 80% Qtotal barrier and achieves Qtotal = 80.9%, MCC = 0.47, and Qpredicted higher by over 6% when compared with the second best method. We use feature selection to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vector used as the input for the proposed prediction method. The applied feature set is smaller by 86, 62 and 37% when compared with the second and two third-best (with respect to MCC) competing methods, respectively. Conclusion Experiments show that the proposed method constitutes an improvement over the competing

  2. Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

    2016-01-01

    Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals’ average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day’s WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas. PMID:27879663

  3. Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics.

    PubMed

    Madarang, Krish J; Kang, Joo-Hyon

    2014-06-01

    Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days (ADD), have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid (TSS) discharge loads and event mean concentrations (EMC) were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R(2) and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data. Copyright © 2014 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Increasing the predictive accuracy of amyloid-β blood-borne biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Watt, Andrew D; Perez, Keyla A; Faux, Noel G; Pike, Kerryn E; Rowe, Christopher C; Bourgeat, Pierrick; Salvado, Olivier; Masters, Colin L; Villemagne, Victor L; Barnham, Kevin J

    2011-01-01

    Diagnostic measures for Alzheimer's disease (AD) commonly rely on evaluating the levels of amyloid-β (Aβ) peptides within the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of affected individuals. These levels are often combined with levels of an additional non-Aβ marker to increase predictive accuracy. Recent efforts to overcome the invasive nature of CSF collection led to the observation of Aβ species within the blood cellular fraction, however, little is known of what additional biomarkers may be found in this membranous fraction. The current study aimed to undertake a discovery-based proteomic investigation of the blood cellular fraction from AD patients (n = 18) and healthy controls (HC; n = 15) using copper immobilized metal affinity capture and Surface Enhanced Laser Desorption/Ionisation Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometry. Three candidate biomarkers were observed which could differentiate AD patients from HC (ROC AUC > 0.8). Bivariate pairwise comparisons revealed significant correlations between these markers and measures of AD severity including; MMSE, composite memory, brain amyloid burden, and hippocampal volume. A partial least squares regression model was generated using the three candidate markers along with blood levels of Aβ. This model was able to distinguish AD from HC with high specificity (90%) and sensitivity (77%) and was able to separate individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who converted to AD from MCI non-converters. While requiring further characterization, these candidate biomarkers reaffirm the potential efficacy of blood-based investigations into neurodegenerative conditions. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the incorporation of non-amyloid markers into predictive models, function to increase the accuracy of the diagnostic potential of Aβ.

  5. The Accuracy of Physicians' Clinical Predictions of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancer.

    PubMed

    Amano, Koji; Maeda, Isseki; Shimoyama, Satofumi; Shinjo, Takuya; Shirayama, Hiroto; Yamada, Takeshi; Ono, Shigeki; Yamamoto, Ryo; Yamamoto, Naoki; Shishido, Hideki; Shimizu, Mie; Kawahara, Masanori; Aoki, Shigeru; Demizu, Akira; Goshima, Masahiro; Goto, Keiji; Gyoda, Yasuaki; Hashimoto, Kotaro; Otomo, Sen; Sekimoto, Masako; Shibata, Takemi; Sugimoto, Yuka; Morita, Tatsuya

    2015-08-01

    Accurate prognoses are needed for patients with advanced cancer. To evaluate the accuracy of physicians' clinical predictions of survival (CPS) and assess the relationship between CPS and actual survival (AS) in patients with advanced cancer in palliative care units, hospital palliative care teams, and home palliative care services, as well as those receiving chemotherapy. This was a multicenter prospective cohort study conducted in 58 palliative care service centers in Japan. The palliative care physicians evaluated patients on the first day of admission and followed up all patients to their death or six months after enrollment. We evaluated the accuracy of CPS and assessed the relationship between CPS and AS in the four groups. We obtained a total of 2036 patients: 470, 764, 404, and 398 in hospital palliative care teams, palliative care units, home palliative care services, and chemotherapy, respectively. The proportion of accurate CPS (0.67-1.33 times AS) was 35% (95% CI 33-37%) in the total sample and ranged from 32% to 39% in each setting. While the proportion of patients living longer than CPS (pessimistic CPS) was 20% (95% CI 18-22%) in the total sample, ranging from 15% to 23% in each setting, the proportion of patients living shorter than CPS (optimistic CPS) was 45% (95% CI 43-47%) in the total sample, ranging from 43% to 49% in each setting. Physicians tend to overestimate when predicting survival in all palliative care patients, including those receiving chemotherapy. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Alcoholic hepatitis histological score has high accuracy to predict 90-day mortality and response to steroids.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Patrícia; Silva, Marco; Rodrigues, Susana; Lopes, Joanne; Lopes, Susana; Macedo, Guilherme

    2016-06-01

    A histological classification system (AHHS) has been recently proposed to predict 90-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We analyzed the spectrum of histological features in patients with AH and assessed the ability of AHHS for predicting both response to steroids and 90-day mortality. Retrospective study of patients admitted to our tertiary centre between 2010 and 2014 with biopsy-proven AH. Histological features were analyzed and AHHS value was calculated. Kaplan-Meyer curves were calculated to assess the ability of AHHS to predict response to steroids and 90-day mortality. We included 34 patients (70.6% men, mean age 48.5±8.9 years). Transjugular liver biopsy was performed 3.5±2.9 days after admission. Presence of bilirubinostasis (p=0.049), degree of bilirubinostasis (p<0.001), absence of megamitochondria (p<0.001) and degree of polymorphonuclear infiltration (p=0.018) were significantly associated with higher mortality at 90 days. Patients who responded to steroids had a significantly lower AHHS value than non-responders (5.4±0.9 vs 8.1±1.1, p=0.003). AAHS value was significantly higher in patients who died compared to patients who survived at 90 days (9.0±0.7 vs 5.0±0.9, p<0.001). AHHS predicted response to steroids [AUROC 0.90 (CI95% 0.742-1.000), p=0.004] and 90-day mortality [AUROC 1.0 (CI95% 1.0-1.0), p<0.001] with high accuracy. In this cohort of patients, presence and degree of bilirubinostasis, absence of megamitochondria and degree of PMN infiltration were significantly associated with 90-day mortality. AHHS had a high accuracy for predicting response to steroids and 90-day mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright © 2016 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging, transvaginal, and transrectal ultrasonography in deep infiltrating endometriosis

    PubMed Central

    Alborzi, Saeed; Rasekhi, Alireza; Shomali, Zahra; Madadi, Gooya; Alborzi, Mahshid; Kazemi, Mahboobeh; Hosseini Nohandani, Azam

    2018-01-01

    Abstract To determine the diagnostic accuracy of pelvic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), transvaginal sonography (TVS), and transrectal sonography (TRS) in diagnosis of deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE). This diagnostic accuracy study was conducted during a 2-year period including a total number of 317 patients with signs and symptoms of endometriosis. All the patients were evaluated by pelvic MRI, TVS, and TRS in the same center. The criterion standard was considered to be the laparoscopy and histopathologic examination. Of 317 patients being included in the present study, 252 tested positive for DIE. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of TVS was found to be 83.3%, 46.1%, 85.7%, and 41.6%, respectively. These variables were 80.5%, 18.6%, 79.3%, and 19.7% for TRS and 90.4%, 66.1%, 91.2%, and 64.1% for MRI, respectively. MRI had the highest accuracy (85.4%) when compared to TVS (75.7%) and TRS (67.8%). The sensitivity of TRS, TVS, and MRI in uterosacral ligament DIE was 82.8%, 70.9%, and 63.6%, respectively. On the contrary, specificity had a reverse trend, favoring MRI (93.9%, 92.8%, and 89.8% for TVS and TRS, respectively). The results of the present study demonstrated that TVS and TRS have appropriate diagnostic accuracy in diagnosis of DIE comparable to MRI. PMID:29465552

  8. Use of Cell Viability Assay Data Improves the Prediction Accuracy of Conventional Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationship Models of Animal Carcinogenicity

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Hao; Rusyn, Ivan; Richard, Ann; Tropsha, Alexander

    2008-01-01

    Background To develop efficient approaches for rapid evaluation of chemical toxicity and human health risk of environmental compounds, the National Toxicology Program (NTP) in collaboration with the National Center for Chemical Genomics has initiated a project on high-throughput screening (HTS) of environmental chemicals. The first HTS results for a set of 1,408 compounds tested for their effects on cell viability in six different cell lines have recently become available via PubChem. Objectives We have explored these data in terms of their utility for predicting adverse health effects of the environmental agents. Methods and results Initially, the classification k nearest neighbor (kNN) quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modeling method was applied to the HTS data only, for a curated data set of 384 compounds. The resulting models had prediction accuracies for training, test (containing 275 compounds together), and external validation (109 compounds) sets as high as 89%, 71%, and 74%, respectively. We then asked if HTS results could be of value in predicting rodent carcinogenicity. We identified 383 compounds for which data were available from both the Berkeley Carcinogenic Potency Database and NTP–HTS studies. We found that compounds classified by HTS as “actives” in at least one cell line were likely to be rodent carcinogens (sensitivity 77%); however, HTS “inactives” were far less informative (specificity 46%). Using chemical descriptors only, kNN QSAR modeling resulted in 62.3% prediction accuracy for rodent carcinogenicity applied to this data set. Importantly, the prediction accuracy of the model was significantly improved (72.7%) when chemical descriptors were augmented by HTS data, which were regarded as biological descriptors. Conclusions Our studies suggest that combining NTP–HTS profiles with conventional chemical descriptors could considerably improve the predictive power of computational approaches in toxicology. PMID

  9. SIPSim: A Modeling Toolkit to Predict Accuracy and Aid Design of DNA-SIP Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Youngblut, Nicholas D.; Barnett, Samuel E.; Buckley, Daniel H.

    2018-01-01

    DNA Stable isotope probing (DNA-SIP) is a powerful method that links identity to function within microbial communities. The combination of DNA-SIP with multiplexed high throughput DNA sequencing enables simultaneous mapping of in situ assimilation dynamics for thousands of microbial taxonomic units. Hence, high throughput sequencing enabled SIP has enormous potential to reveal patterns of carbon and nitrogen exchange within microbial food webs. There are several different methods for analyzing DNA-SIP data and despite the power of SIP experiments, it remains difficult to comprehensively evaluate method accuracy across a wide range of experimental parameters. We have developed a toolset (SIPSim) that simulates DNA-SIP data, and we use this toolset to systematically evaluate different methods for analyzing DNA-SIP data. Specifically, we employ SIPSim to evaluate the effects that key experimental parameters (e.g., level of isotopic enrichment, number of labeled taxa, relative abundance of labeled taxa, community richness, community evenness, and beta-diversity) have on the specificity, sensitivity, and balanced accuracy (defined as the product of specificity and sensitivity) of DNA-SIP analyses. Furthermore, SIPSim can predict analytical accuracy and power as a function of experimental design and community characteristics, and thus should be of great use in the design and interpretation of DNA-SIP experiments. PMID:29643843

  10. SIPSim: A Modeling Toolkit to Predict Accuracy and Aid Design of DNA-SIP Experiments.

    PubMed

    Youngblut, Nicholas D; Barnett, Samuel E; Buckley, Daniel H

    2018-01-01

    DNA Stable isotope probing (DNA-SIP) is a powerful method that links identity to function within microbial communities. The combination of DNA-SIP with multiplexed high throughput DNA sequencing enables simultaneous mapping of in situ assimilation dynamics for thousands of microbial taxonomic units. Hence, high throughput sequencing enabled SIP has enormous potential to reveal patterns of carbon and nitrogen exchange within microbial food webs. There are several different methods for analyzing DNA-SIP data and despite the power of SIP experiments, it remains difficult to comprehensively evaluate method accuracy across a wide range of experimental parameters. We have developed a toolset (SIPSim) that simulates DNA-SIP data, and we use this toolset to systematically evaluate different methods for analyzing DNA-SIP data. Specifically, we employ SIPSim to evaluate the effects that key experimental parameters (e.g., level of isotopic enrichment, number of labeled taxa, relative abundance of labeled taxa, community richness, community evenness, and beta-diversity) have on the specificity, sensitivity, and balanced accuracy (defined as the product of specificity and sensitivity) of DNA-SIP analyses. Furthermore, SIPSim can predict analytical accuracy and power as a function of experimental design and community characteristics, and thus should be of great use in the design and interpretation of DNA-SIP experiments.

  11. PPCM: Combing multiple classifiers to improve protein-protein interaction prediction

    DOE PAGES

    Yao, Jianzhuang; Guo, Hong; Yang, Xiaohan

    2015-08-01

    Determining protein-protein interaction (PPI) in biological systems is of considerable importance, and prediction of PPI has become a popular research area. Although different classifiers have been developed for PPI prediction, no single classifier seems to be able to predict PPI with high confidence. We postulated that by combining individual classifiers the accuracy of PPI prediction could be improved. We developed a method called protein-protein interaction prediction classifiers merger (PPCM), and this method combines output from two PPI prediction tools, GO2PPI and Phyloprof, using Random Forests algorithm. The performance of PPCM was tested by area under the curve (AUC) using anmore » assembled Gold Standard database that contains both positive and negative PPI pairs. Our AUC test showed that PPCM significantly improved the PPI prediction accuracy over the corresponding individual classifiers. We found that additional classifiers incorporated into PPCM could lead to further improvement in the PPI prediction accuracy. Furthermore, cross species PPCM could achieve competitive and even better prediction accuracy compared to the single species PPCM. This study established a robust pipeline for PPI prediction by integrating multiple classifiers using Random Forests algorithm. Ultimately, this pipeline will be useful for predicting PPI in nonmodel species.« less

  12. Positive predictive value of infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry: a validation study.

    PubMed

    Østergaard, Lauge; Adelborg, Kasper; Sundbøll, Jens; Pedersen, Lars; Loldrup Fosbøl, Emil; Schmidt, Morten

    2018-05-30

    The positive predictive value of an infective endocarditis diagnosis is approximately 80% in the Danish National Patient Registry. However, since infective endocarditis is a heterogeneous disease implying long-term intravenous treatment, we hypothesiszed that the positive predictive value varies by length of hospital stay. A total of 100 patients with first-time infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified from January 2010 - December 2012 at the University hospital of Aarhus and regional hospitals of Herning and Randers. Medical records were reviewed. We calculated the positive predictive value according to admission length, and separately for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and a prosthetic heart valve using the Wilson score method. Among the 92 medical records available for review, the majority of the patients had admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value increased with length of admission. In patients with admission length <2 weeks the positive predictive value was 65% while it was 90% for admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value was 81% for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and 87% for patients with a prosthetic valve. The positive predictive value of the infective endocarditis diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry is high for patients with admission length ⩾2 weeks. Using this algorithm, the Danish National Patient Registry provides a valid source for identifying infective endocarditis for research.

  13. Comparing the accuracy of perturbative and variational calculations for predicting fundamental vibrational frequencies of dihalomethanes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krasnoshchekov, Sergey V.; Schutski, Roman S.; Craig, Norman C.; Sibaev, Marat; Crittenden, Deborah L.

    2018-02-01

    Three dihalogenated methane derivatives (CH2F2, CH2FCl, and CH2Cl2) were used as model systems to compare and assess the accuracy of two different approaches for predicting observed fundamental frequencies: canonical operator Van Vleck vibrational perturbation theory (CVPT) and vibrational configuration interaction (VCI). For convenience and consistency, both methods employ the Watson Hamiltonian in rectilinear normal coordinates, expanding the potential energy surface (PES) as a Taylor series about equilibrium and constructing the wavefunction from a harmonic oscillator product basis. At the highest levels of theory considered here, fourth-order CVPT and VCI in a harmonic oscillator basis with up to 10 quanta of vibrational excitation in conjunction with a 4-mode representation sextic force field (SFF-4MR) computed at MP2/cc-pVTZ with replacement CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ harmonic force constants, the agreement between computed fundamentals is closer to 0.3 cm-1 on average, with a maximum difference of 1.7 cm-1. The major remaining accuracy-limiting factors are the accuracy of the underlying electronic structure model, followed by the incompleteness of the PES expansion. Nonetheless, computed and experimental fundamentals agree to within 5 cm-1, with an average difference of 2 cm-1, confirming the utility and accuracy of both theoretical models. One exception to this rule is the formally IR-inactive but weakly allowed through Coriolis-coupling H-C-H out-of-plane twisting mode of dichloromethane, whose spectrum we therefore revisit and reassign. We also investigate convergence with respect to order of CVPT, VCI excitation level, and order of PES expansion, concluding that premature truncation substantially decreases accuracy, although VCI(6)/SFF-4MR results are still of acceptable accuracy, and some error cancellation is observed with CVPT2 using a quartic force field.

  14. Leadership for Whom? Socioeconomic Factors Predicting Undergraduate Students' Positional Leadership Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soria, Krista M.; Hussein, Deeqa; Vue, Carolyn

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the associations between undergraduate students' socioeconomic background (i.e., first-generation status and household income) and their participation as positional leaders at six large, public research universities. Results from logistic regressions predicting positional leadership in student organizations suggested that…

  15. High-definition endoscopy with digital chromoendoscopy for histologic prediction of distal colorectal polyps.

    PubMed

    Rath, Timo; Tontini, Gian E; Nägel, Andreas; Vieth, Michael; Zopf, Steffen; Günther, Claudia; Hoffman, Arthur; Neurath, Markus F; Neumann, Helmut

    2015-10-22

    Distal diminutive colorectal polyps are common and accurate endoscopic prediction of hyperplastic or adenomatous polyp histology could reduce procedural time, costs and potential risks associated with the resection. Within this study we assessed whether digital chromoendoscopy can accurately predict the histology of distal diminutive colorectal polyps according to the ASGE PIVI statement. In this prospective cohort study, 224 consecutive patients undergoing screening or surveillance colonoscopy were included. Real time histology of 121 diminutive distal colorectal polyps was evaluated using high-definition endoscopy with digital chromoendoscopy and the accuracy of predicting histology with digital chromoendoscopy was assessed. The overall accuracy of digital chromoendoscopy for prediction of adenomatous polyp histology was 90.1 %. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were 93.3, 88.7, 88.7, and 93.2 %, respectively. In high-confidence predictions, the accuracy increased to 96.3 % while sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated as 98.1, 94.4, 94.5, and 98.1 %, respectively. Surveillance intervals with digital chromoendoscopy were correctly predicted with >90 % accuracy. High-definition endoscopy in combination with digital chromoendoscopy allowed real-time in vivo prediction of distal colorectal polyp histology and is accurate enough to leave distal colorectal polyps in place without resection or to resect and discard them without pathologic assessment. This approach has the potential to reduce costs and risks associated with the redundant removal of diminutive colorectal polyps. ClinicalTrials NCT02217449.

  16. Assessing and Ensuring GOES-R Magnetometer Accuracy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kronenwetter, Jeffrey; Carter, Delano R.; Todirita, Monica; Chu, Donald

    2016-01-01

    The GOES-R magnetometer accuracy requirement is 1.7 nanoteslas (nT). During quiet times (100 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 3 sigma. During storms (300 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 2 sigma. To achieve this, the sensor itself has better than 1 nT accuracy. Because zero offset and scale factor drift over time, it is also necessary to perform annual calibration maneuvers. To predict performance, we used covariance analysis and attempted to corroborate it with simulations. Although not perfect, the two generally agree and show the expected behaviors. With the annual calibration regimen, these predictions suggest that the magnetometers will meet their accuracy requirements.

  17. Predicting streptococcal pharyngitis in adults in primary care: a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs and validation of the Centor score.

    PubMed

    Aalbers, Jolien; O'Brien, Kirsty K; Chan, Wai-Sun; Falk, Gavin A; Teljeur, Conor; Dimitrov, Borislav D; Fahey, Tom

    2011-06-01

    Stratifying patients with a sore throat into the probability of having an underlying bacterial or viral cause may be helpful in targeting antibiotic treatment. We sought to assess the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR), the Centor score, for predicting group A β-haemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) pharyngitis in adults (> 14 years of age) presenting with sore throat symptoms. A systematic literature search was performed up to July 2010. Studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and/or validated the Centor score were included. For the analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and the Centor score, studies were combined using a bivariate random effects model, while for the calibration analysis of the Centor score, a random effects model was used. A total of 21 studies incorporating 4,839 patients were included in the meta-analysis on diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms. The results were heterogeneous and suggest that individual signs and symptoms generate only small shifts in post-test probability (range positive likelihood ratio (+LR) 1.45-2.33, -LR 0.54-0.72). As a decision rule for considering antibiotic prescribing (score ≥ 3), the Centor score has reasonable specificity (0.82, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.88) and a post-test probability of 12% to 40% based on a prior prevalence of 5% to 20%. Pooled calibration shows no significant difference between the numbers of patients predicted and observed to have GABHS pharyngitis across strata of Centor score (0-1 risk ratio (RR) 0.72, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.06; 2-3 RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.17; 4 RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.37). Individual signs and symptoms are not powerful enough to discriminate GABHS pharyngitis from other types of sore throat. The Centor score is a well calibrated CPR for estimating the probability of GABHS pharyngitis. The Centor score can enhance appropriate prescribing of antibiotics, but should be used with caution

  18. Predicting streptococcal pharyngitis in adults in primary care: a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs and validation of the Centor score

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Stratifying patients with a sore throat into the probability of having an underlying bacterial or viral cause may be helpful in targeting antibiotic treatment. We sought to assess the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR), the Centor score, for predicting group A β-haemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) pharyngitis in adults (> 14 years of age) presenting with sore throat symptoms. Methods A systematic literature search was performed up to July 2010. Studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and/or validated the Centor score were included. For the analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and the Centor score, studies were combined using a bivariate random effects model, while for the calibration analysis of the Centor score, a random effects model was used. Results A total of 21 studies incorporating 4,839 patients were included in the meta-analysis on diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms. The results were heterogeneous and suggest that individual signs and symptoms generate only small shifts in post-test probability (range positive likelihood ratio (+LR) 1.45-2.33, -LR 0.54-0.72). As a decision rule for considering antibiotic prescribing (score ≥ 3), the Centor score has reasonable specificity (0.82, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.88) and a post-test probability of 12% to 40% based on a prior prevalence of 5% to 20%. Pooled calibration shows no significant difference between the numbers of patients predicted and observed to have GABHS pharyngitis across strata of Centor score (0-1 risk ratio (RR) 0.72, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.06; 2-3 RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.17; 4 RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.37). Conclusions Individual signs and symptoms are not powerful enough to discriminate GABHS pharyngitis from other types of sore throat. The Centor score is a well calibrated CPR for estimating the probability of GABHS pharyngitis. The Centor score can enhance appropriate prescribing of

  19. 'Bodily precision': a predictive coding account of individual differences in interoceptive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Ainley, Vivien; Apps, Matthew A J; Fotopoulou, Aikaterini; Tsakiris, Manos

    2016-11-19

    Individuals differ in their awareness of afferent information from within their bodies, which is typically assessed by a heartbeat perception measure of 'interoceptive accuracy' (IAcc). Neural and behavioural correlates of this trait have been investigated, but a theoretical explanation has yet to be presented. Building on recent models that describe interoception within the free energy/predictive coding framework, this paper applies similar principles to IAcc, proposing that individual differences in IAcc depend on 'precision' in interoceptive systems, i.e. the relative weight accorded to 'prior' representations and 'prediction errors' (that part of incoming interoceptive sensation not accounted for by priors), at various levels within the cortical hierarchy and between modalities. Attention has the effect of optimizing precision both within and between sensory modalities. Our central assumption is that people with high IAcc are able, with attention, to prioritize interoception over other sensory modalities and can thus adjust the relative precision of their interoceptive priors and prediction errors, where appropriate, given their personal history. This characterization explains key findings within the interoception literature; links results previously seen as unrelated or contradictory; and may have important implications for understanding cognitive, behavioural and psychopathological consequences of both high and low interoceptive awareness.This article is part of the themed issue 'Interoception beyond homeostasis: affect, cognition and mental health'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  20. On the accuracy of models for predicting sound propagation in fitted rooms.

    PubMed

    Hodgson, M

    1990-08-01

    The objective of this article is to make a contribution to the evaluation of the accuracy and applicability of models for predicting the sound propagation in fitted rooms such as factories, classrooms, and offices. The models studied are 1:50 scale models; the method-of-image models of Jovicic, Lindqvist, Hodgson, Kurze, and of Lemire and Nicolas; the emprical formula of Friberg; and Ondet and Barbry's ray-tracing model. Sound propagation predictions by the analytic models are compared with the results of sound propagation measurements in a 1:50 scale model and in a warehouse, both containing various densities of approximately isotropically distributed, rectangular-parallelepipedic fittings. The results indicate that the models of Friberg and of Lemire and Nicolas are fundamentally incorrect. While more generally applicable versions exist, the versions of the models of Jovicic and Kurze studied here are found to be of limited applicability since they ignore vertical-wall reflections. The Hodgson and Lindqvist models appear to be accurate in certain limited cases. This preliminary study found the ray-tracing model of Ondet and Barbry to be the most accurate of all the cases studied. Furthermore, it has the necessary flexibility with respect to room geometry, surface-absorption distribution, and fitting distribution. It appears to be the model with the greatest applicability to fitted-room sound propagation prediction.

  1. Does imprint cytology improve the accuracy of transrectal prostate needle biopsy?

    PubMed

    Sayar, Hamide; Bulut, Burak Besir; Bahar, Abdulkadir Yasir; Bahar, Mustafa Remzi; Seringec, Nurten; Resim, Sefa; Çıralık, Harun

    2015-02-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of imprint cytology of core needle biopsy specimens in the diagnosis of prostate cancer. Between December 24, 2011 and May 9, 2013, patients with an abnormal DRE and/or serum PSA level of >2.5 ng/mL underwent transrectal prostate needle biopsy. Samples with positive imprint cytology but negative initial histologic exam underwent repeat sectioning and histological examination. 1,262 transrectal prostate needle biopsy specimens were evaluated from 100 patients. Malignant imprint cytology was found in 236 specimens (18.7%), 197 (15.6%) of which were confirmed by histologic examination, giving an initial 3.1% (n = 39) rate of discrepant results by imprint cytology. Upon repeat sectioning and histologic examination of these 39 biopsy samples, 14 (1.1% of the original specimens) were then diagnosed as malignant, 3 (0.2%) as atypical small acinar proliferation (ASAP), and 5 (0.4%) as high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN). Overall, 964 (76.4%) specimens were negative for malignancy by imprint cytology. Seven (0.6%) specimens were benign by cytology but malignant cells were found on histological evaluation. On imprint cytology examination, nonmalignant but abnormal findings were seen in 62 specimens (4.9%). These were all due to benign processes. After reexamination, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive rate, false-negative rate of imprint preparations were 98.1, 96.9, 98.4, 92.8, 99.3, 1.6, 3.1%, respectively. Imprint cytology is valuable tool for evaluating TRUS-guided core needle biopsy specimens from the prostate. Use of imprint cytology in combination with histopathology increases diagnostic accuracy when compared with histopathologic assessment alone. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vavrina, Matthew A.; Newman, Clark P.; Slojkowski, Steven E.; Carpenter, J. Russell

    2014-01-01

    Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

  3. Predicting carcinogenicity of diverse chemicals using probabilistic neural network modeling approaches

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Singh, Kunwar P., E-mail: kpsingh_52@yahoo.com; Environmental Chemistry Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Post Box 80, Mahatma Gandhi Marg, Lucknow 226 001; Gupta, Shikha

    Robust global models capable of discriminating positive and non-positive carcinogens; and predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals in rodents were developed. The dataset of 834 structurally diverse chemicals extracted from Carcinogenic Potency Database (CPDB) was used which contained 466 positive and 368 non-positive carcinogens. Twelve non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinearity in the data were evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman statistics. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the carcinogenicity end point in rat. Validation of the models wasmore » performed using the internal and external procedures employing a wide series of statistical checks. PNN constructed using five descriptors rendered classification accuracy of 92.09% in complete rat data. The PNN model rendered classification accuracies of 91.77%, 80.70% and 92.08% in mouse, hamster and pesticide data, respectively. The GRNN constructed with nine descriptors yielded correlation coefficient of 0.896 between the measured and predicted carcinogenic potency with mean squared error (MSE) of 0.44 in complete rat data. The rat carcinogenicity model (GRNN) applied to the mouse and hamster data yielded correlation coefficient and MSE of 0.758, 0.71 and 0.760, 0.46, respectively. The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting carcinogenic potency of chemicals. Both the PNN and GRNN (inter-species) models constructed here can be useful tools in predicting the carcinogenicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. - Graphical abstract: Figure (a) shows classification accuracies (positive and non-positive carcinogens) in rat, mouse, hamster, and pesticide data yielded by optimal PNN model. Figure (b) shows generalization and

  4. Accuracy of transthoracic ultrasound for the prediction of chest wall infiltration by lung cancer and of lung infiltration by chest wall tumours.

    PubMed

    Caroli, Guido; Dell'Amore, Andrea; Cassanelli, Nicola; Dolci, Giampiero; Pipitone, Emanuela; Asadi, Nizar; Stella, Franco; Bini, Alessandro

    2015-10-01

    We wanted to determine the accuracy of transthoracic ultrasound in the prediction of chest wall infiltration by lung cancer or lung infiltration by chest wall tumours. Patients having preoperative CT-scan suspect for lung/chest wall infiltration were prospectively enrolled. Inclusion criteria for lung cancer were: obliteration of extrapleural fat, obtuse angle between tumour and chest wall, associated pleural thickening. The criteria for chest wall tumours were: rib destruction and intercostal muscles infiltration with extrapleural fat obliteration and intrathoracic extension. Lung cancer patients with evident chest wall infiltration were excluded. Transthoracic ultrasound was preoperatively performed. Predictions were checked during surgical intervention. Twenty-three patients were preoperatively examined. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of transthoracic ultrasound were 88.89%, 100%, 100% and 93.3%, respectively. Youden index was used to determine the best cut-off for tumour size in predicting lung/chest wall infiltration: 4.5cm. At univariate logistic regression, tumour size (<4.5 vs ≥ 4.5cm) (p=0.0072) was significantly associated with infiltration. Transthoracic ultrasound is a useful instrument for predicting neoplastic lung or chest wall infiltration in cases of suspect CT-scans and could be used as part of the preoperative workup to assess tumour staging and to plan the best surgical approach. Copyright © 2015 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Diagnostic yield and accuracy of coronary CT angiography after abnormal nuclear myocardial perfusion imaging.

    PubMed

    Meinel, Felix G; Schoepf, U Joseph; Townsend, Jacob C; Flowers, Brian A; Geyer, Lucas L; Ebersberger, Ullrich; Krazinski, Aleksander W; Kunz, Wolfgang G; Thierfelder, Kolja M; Baker, Deborah W; Khan, Ashan M; Fernandes, Valerian L; O'Brien, Terrence X

    2018-06-15

    We aimed to determine the diagnostic yield and accuracy of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) in patients referred for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) based on clinical concern for coronary artery disease (CAD) and an abnormal nuclear stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) study. We enrolled 100 patients (84 male, mean age 59.6 ± 8.9 years) with an abnormal MPI study and subsequent referral for ICA. Each patient underwent CCTA prior to ICA. We analyzed the prevalence of potentially obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis) on CCTA and calculated the diagnostic accuracy of ≥50% stenosis on CCTA for the detection of clinically significant CAD on ICA (defined as any ≥70% stenosis or ≥50% left main stenosis). On CCTA, 54 patients had at least one ≥50% stenosis. With ICA, 45 patients demonstrated clinically significant CAD. A positive CCTA had 100% sensitivity and 84% specificity with a 100% negative predictive value and 83% positive predictive value for clinically significant CAD on a per patient basis in MPI positive symptomatic patients. In conclusion, almost half (48%) of patients with suspected CAD and an abnormal MPI study demonstrate no obstructive CAD on CCTA.

  6. How accurate is our clinical prediction of "minimal prostate cancer"?

    PubMed

    Leibovici, Dan; Shikanov, Sergey; Gofrit, Ofer N; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shilo, Yaniv; Shalhav, Arieh L

    2013-07-01

    Recommendations for active surveillance versus immediate treatment for low risk prostate cancer are based on biopsy and clinical data, assuming that a low volume of well-differentiated carcinoma will be associated with a low progression risk. However, the accuracy of clinical prediction of minimal prostate cancer (MPC) is unclear. To define preoperative predictors for MPC in prostatectomy specimens and to examine the accuracy of such prediction. Data collected on 1526 consecutive radical prostatectomy patients operated in a single center between 2003 and 2008 included: age, body mass index, preoperative prostate-specific antigen level, biopsy Gleason score, clinical stage, percentage of positive biopsy cores, and maximal core length (MCL) involvement. MPC was defined as < 5% of prostate volume involvement with organ-confined Gleason score < or = 6. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to define independent predictors of minimal disease. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to define cutoff values for the predictors and measure the accuracy of prediction. MPC was found in 241 patients (15.8%). Clinical stage, biopsy Gleason's score, percent of positive biopsy cores, and maximal involved core length were associated with minimal disease (OR 0.42, 0.1, 0.92, and 0.9, respectively). Independent predictors of MPC included: biopsy Gleason score, percent of positive cores and MCL (OR 0.21, 095 and 0.95, respectively). CART showed that when the MCL exceeded 11.5%, the likelihood of MPC was 3.8%. Conversely, when applying the most favorable preoperative conditions (Gleason < or = 6, < 20% positive cores, MCL < or = 11.5%) the chance of minimal disease was 41%. Biopsy Gleason score, the percent of positive cores and MCL are independently associated with MPC. While preoperative prediction of significant prostate cancer was accurate, clinical prediction of MPC was incorrect 59% of the time. Caution is necessary when

  7. Diagnostic accuracy assessment of cytopathological examination of feline sporotrichosis.

    PubMed

    Jessica, N; Sonia, R L; Rodrigo, C; Isabella, D F; Tânia, M P; Jeferson, C; Anna, B F; Sandro, A

    2015-11-01

    Sporotrichosis is an implantation mycosis caused by pathogenic species of Sporothrix schenckii complex that affects humans and animals, especially cats. Its main forms of zoonotic transmission include scratching, biting and/or contact with the exudate from lesions of sick cats. In Brazil, epidemic involving humans, dogs and cats has occurred since 1998. The definitive diagnosis of sporotrichosis is obtained by the isolation of the fungus in culture; however, the result can take up to four weeks, which may delay the beginning of antifungal treatment in some cases. Cytopathological examination is often used in feline sporotrichosis diagnosis, but accuracy parameters have not been established yet. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of cytopathological examination in the diagnosis of feline sporotrichosis. The present study included 244 cats from the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, mostly males in reproductive age with three or more lesions in non-adjacent anatomical places. To evaluate the inter-observer reliability, two different observers performed the microscopic examination of the slides blindly. Test sensitivity was 84.9%. The values of positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and accuracy were 86.0, 24.4, 2.02, 0.26 and 82.8%, respectively. The reliability between the two observers was considered substantial. We conclude that the cytopathological examination is a sensitive, rapid and practical method to be used in feline sporotrichosis diagnosis in outbreaks of this mycosis. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The International Society for Human and Animal Mycology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Accuracy of three-dimensional soft tissue prediction for Le Fort I osteotomy using Dolphin 3D software: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Resnick, C M; Dang, R R; Glick, S J; Padwa, B L

    2017-03-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) soft tissue prediction is replacing two-dimensional analysis in planning for orthognathic surgery. The accuracy of different computational models to predict soft tissue changes in 3D, however, is unclear. A retrospective pilot study was implemented to assess the accuracy of Dolphin 3D software in making these predictions. Seven patients who had a single-segment Le Fort I osteotomy and had preoperative (T 0 ) and >6-month postoperative (T 1 ) cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans and 3D photographs were included. The actual skeletal change was determined by subtracting the T 0 from the T 1 CBCT. 3D photographs were overlaid onto the T 0 CBCT and virtual skeletal movements equivalent to the achieved repositioning were applied using Dolphin 3D planner. A 3D soft tissue prediction (T P ) was generated and differences between the T P and T 1 images (error) were measured at 14 points and at the nasolabial angle. A mean linear prediction error of 2.91±2.16mm was found. The mean error at the nasolabial angle was 8.1±5.6°. In conclusion, the ability to accurately predict 3D soft tissue changes after Le Fort I osteotomy using Dolphin 3D software is limited. Copyright © 2016 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. CD-Based Indices for Link Prediction in Complex Network.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tao; Wang, Hongjue; Wang, Xiaoxia

    2016-01-01

    Lots of similarity-based algorithms have been designed to deal with the problem of link prediction in the past decade. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a novel cosine similarity index CD based on distance between nodes and cosine value between vectors is proposed in this paper. Firstly, node coordinate matrix can be obtained by node distances which are different from distance matrix and row vectors of the matrix are regarded as coordinates of nodes. Then, cosine value between node coordinates is used as their similarity index. A local community density index LD is also proposed. Then, a series of CD-based indices include CD-LD-k, CD*LD-k, CD-k and CDI are presented and applied in ten real networks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CD-based indices. The effects of network clustering coefficient and assortative coefficient on prediction accuracy of indices are analyzed. CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k can improve prediction accuracy without considering the assortative coefficient of network is negative or positive. According to analysis of relative precision of each method on each network, CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k indices have excellent average performance and robustness. CD and CD-k indices perform better on positive assortative networks than on negative assortative networks. For negative assortative networks, we improve and refine CD index, referred as CDI index, combining the advantages of CD index and evolutionary mechanism of the network model BA. Experimental results reveal that CDI index can increase prediction accuracy of CD on negative assortative networks.

  10. CD-Based Indices for Link Prediction in Complex Network

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tao; Wang, Hongjue; Wang, Xiaoxia

    2016-01-01

    Lots of similarity-based algorithms have been designed to deal with the problem of link prediction in the past decade. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a novel cosine similarity index CD based on distance between nodes and cosine value between vectors is proposed in this paper. Firstly, node coordinate matrix can be obtained by node distances which are different from distance matrix and row vectors of the matrix are regarded as coordinates of nodes. Then, cosine value between node coordinates is used as their similarity index. A local community density index LD is also proposed. Then, a series of CD-based indices include CD-LD-k, CD*LD-k, CD-k and CDI are presented and applied in ten real networks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CD-based indices. The effects of network clustering coefficient and assortative coefficient on prediction accuracy of indices are analyzed. CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k can improve prediction accuracy without considering the assortative coefficient of network is negative or positive. According to analysis of relative precision of each method on each network, CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k indices have excellent average performance and robustness. CD and CD-k indices perform better on positive assortative networks than on negative assortative networks. For negative assortative networks, we improve and refine CD index, referred as CDI index, combining the advantages of CD index and evolutionary mechanism of the network model BA. Experimental results reveal that CDI index can increase prediction accuracy of CD on negative assortative networks. PMID:26752405

  11. The accuracy of body mass prediction for elderly specimens: Implications for paleoanthropology and legal medicine.

    PubMed

    Chevalier, Tony; Lefèvre, Philippe; Clarys, Jan Pieter; Beauthier, Jean-Pol

    2016-10-01

    Different practices in paleoanthropology and legal medicine raise questions concerning the robustness of body mass (BM) prediction. Integrating personal identification from body mass estimation with skeleton is not a classic approach in legal medicine. The originality of our study is the use of an elderly sample in order to push prediction methods to their limits and to discuss about implications in paleoanthropology and legal medicine. The aim is to observe the accuracy of BM prediction in relation to the body mass index (BMI, index of classification) using five femoral head (FH) methods and one shaft (FSH) method. The sample is composed of 41 dry femurs obtained from dissection where age (c. 82 years) and gender are known, and weight (c. 59.5 kg) and height are measured upon admission to the body leg service. We show that the estimation of the mean BM of the elderly sample is not significantly different to the real mean BM when the appropriate formula is used for the femoral head diameter. In fact, the best prediction is obtained with the McHenry formula (1992), which was based on a sample with an equivalent average mass to that of our sample. In comparison, external shaft diameters, which are known to be more influenced by mechanical stimuli than femoral head diameters, yield less satisfactory results with the McHenry formula (1992) for shaft diameters. Based on all the methods used and the distinctive selected sample, overestimation (always observed with the different femoral head methods) can be restricted to 1.1%. The observed overestimation with the shaft method can be restricted to 7%. However, the estimation of individual BM is much less reliable. The BMI has a strong impact on the accuracy of individual BM prediction, and is unquestionably more reliable for individuals with normal BMI (9.6% vs 16.7% for the best prediction error). In this case, the FH method is also the better predictive method but not if we integrate the total sample (i.e., the FSH

  12. Accuracy of Dolphin visual treatment objective (VTO) prediction software on class III patients treated with maxillary advancement and mandibular setback.

    PubMed

    Peterman, Robert J; Jiang, Shuying; Johe, Rene; Mukherjee, Padma M

    2016-12-01

    Dolphin® visual treatment objective (VTO) prediction software is routinely utilized by orthodontists during the treatment planning of orthognathic cases to help predict post-surgical soft tissue changes. Although surgical soft tissue prediction is considered to be a vital tool, its accuracy is not well understood in tow-jaw surgical procedures. The objective of this study was to quantify the accuracy of Dolphin Imaging's VTO soft tissue prediction software on class III patients treated with maxillary advancement and mandibular setback and to validate the efficacy of the software in such complex cases. This retrospective study analyzed the records of 14 patients treated with comprehensive orthodontics in conjunction with two-jaw orthognathic surgery. Pre- and post-treatment radiographs were traced and superimposed to determine the actual skeletal movements achieved in surgery. This information was then used to simulate surgery in the software and generate a final soft tissue patient profile prediction. Prediction images were then compared to the actual post-treatment profile photos to determine differences. Dolphin Imaging's software was determined to be accurate within an error range of +/- 2 mm in the X-axis at most landmarks. The lower lip predictions were most inaccurate. Clinically, the observed error suggests that the VTO may be used for demonstration and communication with a patient or consulting practitioner. However, Dolphin should not be useful for precise treatment planning of surgical movements. This program should be used with caution to prevent unrealistic patient expectations and dissatisfaction.

  13. Short communication: Improving the accuracy of genomic prediction of body conformation traits in Chinese Holsteins using markers derived from high-density marker panels.

    PubMed

    Song, H; Li, L; Ma, P; Zhang, S; Su, G; Lund, M S; Zhang, Q; Ding, X

    2018-06-01

    This study investigated the efficiency of genomic prediction with adding the markers identified by genome-wide association study (GWAS) using a data set of imputed high-density (HD) markers from 54K markers in Chinese Holsteins. Among 3,056 Chinese Holsteins with imputed HD data, 2,401 individuals born before October 1, 2009, were used for GWAS and a reference population for genomic prediction, and the 220 younger cows were used as a validation population. In total, 1,403, 1,536, and 1,383 significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP; false discovery rate at 0.05) associated with conformation final score, mammary system, and feet and legs were identified, respectively. About 2 to 3% genetic variance of 3 traits was explained by these significant SNP. Only a very small proportion of significant SNP identified by GWAS was included in the 54K marker panel. Three new marker sets (54K+) were herein produced by adding significant SNP obtained by linear mixed model for each trait into the 54K marker panel. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) model. The accuracies of genomic breeding value by BVS based on the 54K+ data were 2.0 to 5.2% higher than those based on the 54K data. The imputed HD markers yielded 1.4% higher accuracy on average (BVS) than the 54K data. Both the 54K+ and HD data generated lower bias of genomic prediction, and the 54K+ data yielded the lowest bias in all situations. Our results show that the imputed HD data were not very useful for improving the accuracy of genomic prediction and that adding the significant markers derived from the imputed HD marker panel could improve the accuracy of genomic prediction and decrease the bias of genomic prediction. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. [Positional accuracy and quality assurance of Backup JAWs required for volumetric modulated arc therapy].

    PubMed

    Tatsumi, Daisaku; Nakada, Ryosei; Ienaga, Akinori; Yomoda, Akane; Inoue, Makoto; Ichida, Takao; Hosono, Masako

    2012-01-01

    The tolerance of the Backup diaphragm (Backup JAW) setting in Elekta linac was specified as 2 mm according to the AAPM TG-142 report. However, the tolerance and the quality assurance procedure for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) was not provided. This paper describes positional accuracy and quality assurance procedure of the Backup JAWs required for VMAT. It was found that a gap-width error of the Backup JAW by a sliding window test needed to be less than 1.5 mm for prostate VMAT delivery. It was also confirmed that the gap-widths had been maintained with an error of 0.2 mm during the past one year.

  15. A function accounting for training set size and marker density to model the average accuracy of genomic prediction.

    PubMed

    Erbe, Malena; Gredler, Birgit; Seefried, Franz Reinhold; Bapst, Beat; Simianer, Henner

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of genomic breeding values is of major practical relevance in dairy cattle breeding. Deterministic equations have been suggested to predict the accuracy of genomic breeding values in a given design which are based on training set size, reliability of phenotypes, and the number of independent chromosome segments ([Formula: see text]). The aim of our study was to find a general deterministic equation for the average accuracy of genomic breeding values that also accounts for marker density and can be fitted empirically. Two data sets of 5'698 Holstein Friesian bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and 1'332 Brown Swiss bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and imputed to ∼600 K SNPs were available. Different k-fold (k = 2-10, 15, 20) cross-validation scenarios (50 replicates, random assignment) were performed using a genomic BLUP approach. A maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of different prediction equations. The highest likelihood was obtained when using a modified form of the deterministic equation of Daetwyler et al. (2010), augmented by a weighting factor (w) based on the assumption that the maximum achievable accuracy is [Formula: see text]. The proportion of genetic variance captured by the complete SNP sets ([Formula: see text]) was 0.76 to 0.82 for Holstein Friesian and 0.72 to 0.75 for Brown Swiss. When modifying the number of SNPs, w was found to be proportional to the log of the marker density up to a limit which is population and trait specific and was found to be reached with ∼20'000 SNPs in the Brown Swiss population studied.

  16. A 3-Year Study of Predictive Factors for Positive and Negative Appendicectomies.

    PubMed

    Chang, Dwayne T S; Maluda, Melissa; Lee, Lisa; Premaratne, Chandrasiri; Khamhing, Srisongham

    2018-03-06

    Early and accurate identification or exclusion of acute appendicitis is the key to avoid the morbidity of delayed treatment for true appendicitis or unnecessary appendicectomy, respectively. We aim (i) to identify potential predictive factors for positive and negative appendicectomies; and (ii) to analyse the use of ultrasound scans (US) and computed tomography (CT) scans for acute appendicitis. All appendicectomies that took place at our hospital from the 1st of January 2013 to the 31st of December 2015 were retrospectively recorded. Test results of potential predictive factors of acute appendicitis were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher exact test, logistic regression analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values calculation. 208 patients were included in this study. 184 patients had histologically proven acute appendicitis. The other 24 patients had either nonappendicitis pathology or normal appendix. Logistic regression analysis showed statistically significant associations between appendicitis and white cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, and bilirubin. Neutrophil count was the test with the highest sensitivity and negative predictive values, whereas bilirubin was the test with the highest specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). US and CT scans had high sensitivity and PPV for diagnosing appendicitis. No single test was sufficient to diagnose or exclude acute appendicitis by itself. Combining tests with high sensitivity (abnormal neutrophil count, and US and CT scans) and high specificity (raised bilirubin) may predict acute appendicitis more accurately.

  17. Improving transmembrane protein consensus topology prediction using inter-helical interaction.

    PubMed

    Wang, Han; Zhang, Chao; Shi, Xiaohu; Zhang, Li; Zhou, You

    2012-11-01

    Alpha helix transmembrane proteins (αTMPs) represent roughly 30% of all open reading frames (ORFs) in a typical genome and are involved in many critical biological processes. Due to the special physicochemical properties, it is hard to crystallize and obtain high resolution structures experimentally, thus, sequence-based topology prediction is highly desirable for the study of transmembrane proteins (TMPs), both in structure prediction and function prediction. Various model-based topology prediction methods have been developed, but the accuracy of those individual predictors remain poor due to the limitation of the methods or the features they used. Thus, the consensus topology prediction method becomes practical for high accuracy applications by combining the advances of the individual predictors. Here, based on the observation that inter-helical interactions are commonly found within the transmembrane helixes (TMHs) and strongly indicate the existence of them, we present a novel consensus topology prediction method for αTMPs, CNTOP, which incorporates four top leading individual topology predictors, and further improves the prediction accuracy by using the predicted inter-helical interactions. The method achieved 87% prediction accuracy based on a benchmark dataset and 78% accuracy based on a non-redundant dataset which is composed of polytopic αTMPs. Our method derives the highest topology accuracy than any other individual predictors and consensus predictors, at the same time, the TMHs are more accurately predicted in their length and locations, where both the false positives (FPs) and the false negatives (FNs) decreased dramatically. The CNTOP is available at: http://ccst.jlu.edu.cn/JCSB/cntop/CNTOP.html. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Accuracy Assessment of the Precise Point Positioning for Different Troposphere Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oguz Selbesoglu, Mahmut; Gurturk, Mert; Soycan, Metin

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the accuracy and repeatability of PPP technique at different latitudes by using different troposphere delay models. Nine IGS stations were selected between 00-800 latitudes at northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere. Coordinates were obtained for 7 days at 1 hour intervals in summer and winter. At first, the coordinates were estimated by using Niell troposphere delay model with and without including north and east gradients in order to investigate the contribution of troposphere delay gradients to the positioning . Secondly, Saastamoinen model was used to eliminate troposphere path delays by using standart atmosphere parameters were extrapolated for all station levels. Finally, coordinates were estimated by using RTCA-MOPS empirical troposphere delay model. Results demonstrate that Niell troposphere delay model with horizontal gradients has better mean values of rms errors 0.09 % and 65 % than the Niell troposphere model without horizontal gradients and RTCA-MOPS model, respectively. Saastamoinen model mean values of rms errors were obtained approximately 4 times bigger than the Niell troposphere delay model with horizontal gradients.

  19. Genomic selection models double the accuracy of predicted breeding values for bacterial cold water disease resistance compared to a traditional pedigree-based model in rainbow trout aquaculture.

    PubMed

    Vallejo, Roger L; Leeds, Timothy D; Gao, Guangtu; Parsons, James E; Martin, Kyle E; Evenhuis, Jason P; Fragomeni, Breno O; Wiens, Gregory D; Palti, Yniv

    2017-02-01

    Previously, we have shown that bacterial cold water disease (BCWD) resistance in rainbow trout can be improved using traditional family-based selection, but progress has been limited to exploiting only between-family genetic variation. Genomic selection (GS) is a new alternative that enables exploitation of within-family genetic variation. We compared three GS models [single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP), weighted ssGBLUP (wssGBLUP), and BayesB] to predict genomic-enabled breeding values (GEBV) for BCWD resistance in a commercial rainbow trout population, and compared the accuracy of GEBV to traditional estimates of breeding values (EBV) from a pedigree-based BLUP (P-BLUP) model. We also assessed the impact of sampling design on the accuracy of GEBV predictions. For these comparisons, we used BCWD survival phenotypes recorded on 7893 fish from 102 families, of which 1473 fish from 50 families had genotypes [57 K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array]. Naïve siblings of the training fish (n = 930 testing fish) were genotyped to predict their GEBV and mated to produce 138 progeny testing families. In the following generation, 9968 progeny were phenotyped to empirically assess the accuracy of GEBV predictions made on their non-phenotyped parents. The accuracy of GEBV from all tested GS models were substantially higher than the P-BLUP model EBV. The highest increase in accuracy relative to the P-BLUP model was achieved with BayesB (97.2 to 108.8%), followed by wssGBLUP at iteration 2 (94.4 to 97.1%) and 3 (88.9 to 91.2%) and ssGBLUP (83.3 to 85.3%). Reducing the training sample size to n = ~1000 had no negative impact on the accuracy (0.67 to 0.72), but with n = ~500 the accuracy dropped to 0.53 to 0.61 if the training and testing fish were full-sibs, and even substantially lower, to 0.22 to 0.25, when they were not full-sibs. Using progeny performance data, we showed that the accuracy of genomic predictions is substantially higher

  20. Ultrasound indoor positioning system based on a low-power wireless sensor network providing sub-centimeter accuracy.

    PubMed

    Medina, Carlos; Segura, José Carlos; De la Torre, Ángel

    2013-03-13

    This paper describes the TELIAMADE system, a new indoor positioning system based on time-of-flight (TOF) of ultrasonic signal to estimate the distance between a receiver node and a transmitter node. TELIAMADE system consists of a set of wireless nodes equipped with a radio module for communication and a module for the transmission and reception of ultrasound. The access to the ultrasonic channel is managed by applying a synchronization algorithm based on a time-division multiplexing (TDMA) scheme. The ultrasonic signal is transmitted using a carrier frequency of 40 kHz and the TOF measurement is estimated by applying a quadrature detector to the signal obtained at the A/D converter output. Low sampling frequencies of 17.78 kHz or even 12.31 kHz are possible using quadrature sampling in order to optimize memory requirements and to reduce the computational cost in signal processing. The distance is calculated from the TOF taking into account the speed of sound. An excellent accuracy in the estimation of the TOF is achieved using parabolic interpolation to detect of maximum of the signal envelope at the matched filter output. The signal phase information is also used for enhancing the TOF measurement accuracy. Experimental results show a root mean square error (rmse) less than 2 mm and a standard deviation less than 0.3 mm for pseudorange measurements in the range of distances between 2 and 6 m. The system location accuracy is also evaluated by applying multilateration. A sub-centimeter location accuracy is achieved with an average rmse of 9.6 mm.

  1. Evaluating Diagnostic Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests in Assessment of Significant Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients.

    PubMed

    Omran, Dalia; Zayed, Rania A; Nabeel, Mohammed M; Mobarak, Lamiaa; Zakaria, Zeinab; Farid, Azza; Hassany, Mohamed; Saif, Sameh; Mostafa, Muhammad; Saad, Omar Khalid; Yosry, Ayman

    2018-05-01

    Stage of liver fibrosis is critical for treatment decision and prediction of outcomes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of transient elastography (TE)-FibroScan and noninvasive serum markers tests in the assessment of liver fibrosis in CHC patients, in reference to liver biopsy. One-hundred treatment-naive CHC patients were subjected to liver biopsy, TE-FibroScan, and eight serum biomarkers tests; AST/ALT ratio (AAR), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), age-platelet index (AP index), fibrosis quotient (FibroQ), fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), cirrhosis discriminant score (CDS), King score, and Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI). Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of these noninvasive methods in predicting significant fibrosis in CHC patients. TE-FibroScan predicted significant fibrosis at cutoff value 8.5 kPa with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.90, sensitivity 83%, specificity 91.5%, positive predictive value (PPV) 91.2%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 84.4%. Serum biomarkers tests showed that AP index and FibroQ had the highest diagnostic accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis at cutoff 4.5 and 2.7, AUROC was 0.8 and 0.8 with sensitivity 73.6% and 73.6%, specificity 70.2% and 68.1%, PPV 71.1% and 69.8%, and NPV 72.9% and 72.3%, respectively. Combined AP index and FibroQ had AUROC 0.83 with sensitivity 73.6%, specificity 80.9%, PPV 79.6%, and NPV 75.7% for predicting significant liver fibrosis. APRI, FIB-4, CDS, King score, and GUCI had intermediate accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis with AUROC 0.68, 0.78, 0.74, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively, while AAR had low accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis. TE-FibroScan is the most accurate noninvasive alternative to liver biopsy. AP index and FibroQ, either as individual tests or combined, have good accuracy in predicting significant liver fibrosis

  2. What Good are Positive Emotions for Treatment? Trait Positive Emotionality Predicts Response to Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Anxiety

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Charles T.; Knapp, Sarah E.; Bomyea, Jessica A.; Ramsawh, Holly J.; Paulus, Martin P.; Stein, Murray B.

    2017-01-01

    Objective Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is empirically supported for the treatment of anxiety disorders; however, not all individuals achieve recovery following CBT. Positive emotions serve a number of functions that theoretically should facilitate response to CBT – they promote flexible patterns of information processing and assimilation of new information, encourage approach-oriented behavior, and speed physiological recovery from negative emotions. We conducted a secondary analysis of an existing clinical trial dataset to test the a priori hypothesis that individual differences in trait positive emotions would predict CBT response for anxiety. Method Participants meeting diagnostic criteria for panic disorder (n=28) or generalized anxiety disorder (n=31) completed 10 weekly individual CBT sessions. Trait positive emotionality was assessed at pre-treatment, and severity of anxiety symptoms and associated impairment was assessed throughout treatment. Results Participants who reported a greater propensity to experience positive emotions at pre-treatment displayed the largest reduction in anxiety symptoms as well as fewer symptoms following treatment. Positive emotions remained a robust predictor of change in symptoms when controlling for baseline depression severity. Conclusions Initial evidence supports the predictive value of trait positive emotions as a prognostic indicator for CBT outcome in a GAD and PD sample. PMID:28342947

  3. What good are positive emotions for treatment? Trait positive emotionality predicts response to Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for anxiety.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Charles T; Knapp, Sarah E; Bomyea, Jessica A; Ramsawh, Holly J; Paulus, Martin P; Stein, Murray B

    2017-06-01

    Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is empirically supported for the treatment of anxiety disorders; however, not all individuals achieve recovery following CBT. Positive emotions serve a number of functions that theoretically should facilitate response to CBT - they promote flexible patterns of information processing and assimilation of new information, encourage approach-oriented behavior, and speed physiological recovery from negative emotions. We conducted a secondary analysis of an existing clinical trial dataset to test the a priori hypothesis that individual differences in trait positive emotions would predict CBT response for anxiety. Participants meeting diagnostic criteria for panic disorder (n = 28) or generalized anxiety disorder (n = 31) completed 10 weekly individual CBT sessions. Trait positive emotionality was assessed at pre-treatment, and severity of anxiety symptoms and associated impairment was assessed throughout treatment. Participants who reported a greater propensity to experience positive emotions at pre-treatment displayed the largest reduction in anxiety symptoms as well as fewer symptoms following treatment. Positive emotions remained a robust predictor of change in symptoms when controlling for baseline depression severity. Initial evidence supports the predictive value of trait positive emotions as a prognostic indicator for CBT outcome in a GAD and PD sample. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Assessing and Ensuring GOES-R Magnetometer Accuracy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carter, Delano R.; Todirita, Monica; Kronenwetter, Jeffrey; Chu, Donald

    2016-01-01

    The GOES-R magnetometer subsystem accuracy requirement is 1.7 nanoteslas (nT). During quiet times (100 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 3 sigma. During storms (300 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 2 sigma. Error comes both from outside the magnetometers, e.g. spacecraft fields and misalignments, as well as inside, e.g. zero offset and scale factor errors. Because zero offset and scale factor drift over time, it will be necessary to perform annual calibration maneuvers. To predict performance before launch, we have used Monte Carlo simulations and covariance analysis. Both behave as expected, and their accuracy predictions agree within 30%. With the proposed calibration regimen, both suggest that the GOES-R magnetometer subsystem will meet its accuracy requirements.

  5. Accuracy of prediction of genomic breeding values for residual feed intake and carcass and meat quality traits in Bos taurus, Bos indicus, and composite beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Bolormaa, S; Pryce, J E; Kemper, K; Savin, K; Hayes, B J; Barendse, W; Zhang, Y; Reich, C M; Mason, B A; Bunch, R J; Harrison, B E; Reverter, A; Herd, R M; Tier, B; Graser, H-U; Goddard, M E

    2013-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of genomic predictions for 19 traits including feed efficiency, growth, and carcass and meat quality traits in beef cattle. The 10,181 cattle in our study had real or imputed genotypes for 729,068 SNP although not all cattle were measured for all traits. Animals included Bos taurus, Brahman, composite, and crossbred animals. Genomic EBV (GEBV) were calculated using 2 methods of genomic prediction [BayesR and genomic BLUP (GBLUP)] either using a common training dataset for all breeds or using a training dataset comprising only animals of the same breed. Accuracies of GEBV were assessed using 5-fold cross-validation. The accuracy of genomic prediction varied by trait and by method. Traits with a large number of recorded and genotyped animals and with high heritability gave the greatest accuracy of GEBV. Using GBLUP, the average accuracy was 0.27 across traits and breeds, but the accuracies between breeds and between traits varied widely. When the training population was restricted to animals from the same breed as the validation population, GBLUP accuracies declined by an average of 0.04. The greatest decline in accuracy was found for the 4 composite breeds. The BayesR accuracies were greater by an average of 0.03 than GBLUP accuracies, particularly for traits with known genes of moderate to large effect mutations segregating. The accuracies of 0.43 to 0.48 for IGF-I traits were among the greatest in the study. Although accuracies are low compared with those observed in dairy cattle, genomic selection would still be beneficial for traits that are hard to improve by conventional selection, such as tenderness and residual feed intake. BayesR identified many of the same quantitative trait loci as a genomewide association study but appeared to map them more precisely. All traits appear to be highly polygenic with thousands of SNP independently associated with each trait.

  6. A RANDOM-SCAN DISPLAY OF PREDICTED SATELLITE POSITIONS.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    With the completion of the NRL evaluation of the experimental model of the Satellite Position Prediction and Display equipment ( SPAD ), efforts were...directed toward the design of an operational version of SPAD . Possible design and equipment configurations were proposed which would lead to a...substantial savings in cost and reduced equipment complexity. These designs involve the displaying of the SPAD information by means of a random scanning of

  7. Accuracies of genomically estimated breeding values from pure-breed and across-breed predictions in Australian beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Boerner, Vinzent; Johnston, David J; Tier, Bruce

    2014-10-24

    The major obstacles for the implementation of genomic selection in Australian beef cattle are the variety of breeds and in general, small numbers of genotyped and phenotyped individuals per breed. The Australian Beef Cooperative Research Center (Beef CRC) investigated these issues by deriving genomic prediction equations (PE) from a training set of animals that covers a range of breeds and crosses including Angus, Murray Grey, Shorthorn, Hereford, Brahman, Belmont Red, Santa Gertrudis and Tropical Composite. This paper presents accuracies of genomically estimated breeding values (GEBV) that were calculated from these PE in the commercial pure-breed beef cattle seed stock sector. PE derived by the Beef CRC from multi-breed and pure-breed training populations were applied to genotyped Angus, Limousin and Brahman sires and young animals, but with no pure-breed Limousin in the training population. The accuracy of the resulting GEBV was assessed by their genetic correlation to their phenotypic target trait in a bi-variate REML approach that models GEBV as trait observations. Accuracies of most GEBV for Angus and Brahman were between 0.1 and 0.4, with accuracies for abattoir carcass traits generally greater than for live animal body composition traits and reproduction traits. Estimated accuracies greater than 0.5 were only observed for Brahman abattoir carcass traits and for Angus carcass rib fat. Averaged across traits within breeds, accuracies of GEBV were highest when PE from the pooled across-breed training population were used. However, for the Angus and Brahman breeds the difference in accuracy from using pure-breed PE was small. For the Limousin breed no reasonable results could be achieved for any trait. Although accuracies were generally low compared to published accuracies estimated within breeds, they are in line with those derived in other multi-breed populations. Thus PE developed by the Beef CRC can contribute to the implementation of genomic selection in

  8. Impaired gas exchange: accuracy of defining characteristics in children with acute respiratory infection1

    PubMed Central

    Pascoal, Lívia Maia; Lopes, Marcos Venícios de Oliveira; Chaves, Daniel Bruno Resende; Beltrão, Beatriz Amorim; da Silva, Viviane Martins; Monteiro, Flávia Paula Magalhães

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: to analyze the accuracy of the defining characteristics of the Impaired gas exchange nursing diagnosis in children with acute respiratory infection. METHOD: open prospective cohort study conducted with 136 children monitored for a consecutive period of at least six days and not more than ten days. An instrument based on the defining characteristics of the Impaired gas exchange diagnosis and on literature addressing pulmonary assessment was used to collect data. The accuracy means of all the defining characteristics under study were computed. RESULTS: the Impaired gas exchange diagnosis was present in 42.6% of the children in the first assessment. Hypoxemia was the characteristic that presented the best measures of accuracy. Abnormal breathing presented high sensitivity, while restlessness, cyanosis, and abnormal skin color showed high specificity. All the characteristics presented negative predictive values of 70% and cyanosis stood out by its high positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: hypoxemia was the defining characteristic that presented the best predictive ability to determine Impaired gas exchange. Studies of this nature enable nurses to minimize variability in clinical situations presented by the patient and to identify more precisely the nursing diagnosis that represents the patient's true clinical condition. PMID:26155010

  9. Predicting watershed post-fire sediment yield with the InVEST sediment retention model: Accuracy and uncertainties

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sankey, Joel B.; McVay, Jason C.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Vaillant, Nicole; Lowe, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Increased sedimentation following wildland fire can negatively impact water supply and water quality. Understanding how changing fire frequency, extent, and location will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize erosion and sedimentation of burned watersheds. InVEST was developed by the Natural Capital Project at Stanford University (Tallis et al., 2014) and is a suite of GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., USLE – Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured postfire sediment yields available for many watersheds throughout the western USA from an existing, published large database. We show that the model can be parameterized in a relatively simple fashion to predict post-fire sediment yield with accuracy. Our ultimate goal is to use the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield at a watershed scale as a function of future wildfire conditions.

  10. Position Information Encoded by Population Activity in Hierarchical Visual Areas

    PubMed Central

    Majima, Kei; Horikawa, Tomoyasu

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Neurons in high-level visual areas respond to more complex visual features with broader receptive fields (RFs) compared to those in low-level visual areas. Thus, high-level visual areas are generally considered to carry less information regarding the position of seen objects in the visual field. However, larger RFs may not imply loss of position information at the population level. Here, we evaluated how accurately the position of a seen object could be predicted (decoded) from activity patterns in each of six representative visual areas with different RF sizes [V1–V4, lateral occipital complex (LOC), and fusiform face area (FFA)]. We collected functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) responses while human subjects viewed a ball randomly moving in a two-dimensional field. To estimate population RF sizes of individual fMRI voxels, RF models were fitted for individual voxels in each brain area. The voxels in higher visual areas showed larger estimated RFs than those in lower visual areas. Then, the ball’s position in a separate session was predicted by maximum likelihood estimation using the RF models of individual voxels. We also tested a model-free multivoxel regression (support vector regression, SVR) to predict the position. We found that regardless of the difference in RF size, all visual areas showed similar prediction accuracies, especially on the horizontal dimension. Higher areas showed slightly lower accuracies on the vertical dimension, which appears to be attributed to the narrower spatial distributions of the RF centers. The results suggest that much position information is preserved in population activity through the hierarchical visual pathway regardless of RF sizes and is potentially available in later processing for recognition and behavior. PMID:28451634

  11. Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

    2015-02-01

    Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

  13. Accuracy and Reproducibility Using Patient-Specific Instrumentation in Total Ankle Arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Daigre, Justin; Berlet, Gregory; Van Dyke, Bryan; Peterson, Kyle S; Santrock, Robert

    2017-04-01

    Implant survivorship is dependent on accuracy of implantation and successful soft tissue balancing. System instrumentation for total ankle arthroplasty implantation has a key influence on surgeon accuracy and reproducibility. The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy and reproducibility of implant position with patient-specific guides for total ankle arthroplasty across multiple surgeons at multiple facilities. This retrospective, multicenter study included 44 patients who received a total ankle implant (INBONE II Total Ankle System; Wright Medical Technology, Memphis, TN) using PROPHECY patient-specific guides from January 2012 to December 2014. Forty-four patients with an average age of 63.0 years underwent total ankle arthroplasty using this preoperative patient-specific system. Preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans were obtained to assess coronal plane deformity, assess mechanical and anatomic alignment, and build patient-specific guides that referenced bony anatomy. The mean preoperative coronal deformity was 4.6 ± 4.6 degrees (range, 14 degrees varus to 17 degrees valgus). The first postoperative weightbearing radiographs were used to measure coronal and sagittal alignment of the implant vs the anatomic axis of the tibia. In 79.5% of patients, the postoperative implant position of the tibia corresponded to the preoperative plan of the tibia within 3 degrees of the intended target, within 4 degrees in 88.6% of patients, and within 5 degrees in 100% of patients. The tibial component coronal size was correctly predicted in 98% of cases, whereas the talar component was correctly predicted in 80% of cases. The use of patient-specific instrumentation for total ankle arthroplasty provided reliable alignment and reproducibility in the clinical situation similar to that shown in cadaveric testing. This study has shown that the preoperative patient-specific instrumentation provided for accuracy and reproducibility of ankle arthroplasty implantation

  14. Position of pelvis in the 3rd month of life predicts further motor development.

    PubMed

    Gajewska, Ewa; Sobieska, Magdalena; Moczko, Jerzy

    2018-06-01

    The aim of the study is to select elements of motor skills assessed at 3 months that provide the best predictive properties for motor development at 9 months. In all children a physiotherapeutic assessment of the quantitative and qualitative development at the age of 3 months was performed in the prone and supine positions, which was presented in previous papers as the quantitative and qualitative assessment sheet of motor development. The neurological examination at the age of 9 months was based on the Denver Development Screening Test II and the evaluation of reflexes, muscle tone (hypotony and hypertony), and symmetry. The particular elements of motor performance assessment were shown to have distinct predictive value for further motor development (as assessed at 9 months), and the pelvis position was the strongest predictive element. Irrespective of the symptomatic and anamnestic factors the inappropriate motor performance may already be detected in the 3rd month of life and is predictive for further motor development. The assessment of the motor performance should be performed in both supine and prone positions. The proper position of pelvis summarizes the proper positioning of the whole spine and ensures proper further motor development. To our knowledge, the presented motor development assessment sheet allows the earliest prediction of motor disturbances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. SU-E-J-191: Motion Prediction Using Extreme Learning Machine in Image Guided Radiotherapy

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jia, J; Cao, R; Pei, X

    Purpose: Real-time motion tracking is a critical issue in image guided radiotherapy due to the time latency caused by image processing and system response. It is of great necessity to fast and accurately predict the future position of the respiratory motion and the tumor location. Methods: The prediction of respiratory position was done based on the positioning and tracking module in ARTS-IGRT system which was developed by FDS Team (www.fds.org.cn). An approach involving with the extreme learning machine (ELM) was adopted to predict the future respiratory position as well as the tumor’s location by training the past trajectories. For themore » training process, a feed-forward neural network with one single hidden layer was used for the learning. First, the number of hidden nodes was figured out for the single layered feed forward network (SLFN). Then the input weights and hidden layer biases of the SLFN were randomly assigned to calculate the hidden neuron output matrix. Finally, the predicted movement were obtained by applying the output weights and compared with the actual movement. Breathing movement acquired from the external infrared markers was used to test the prediction accuracy. And the implanted marker movement for the prostate cancer was used to test the implementation of the tumor motion prediction. Results: The accuracy of the predicted motion and the actual motion was tested. Five volunteers with different breathing patterns were tested. The average prediction time was 0.281s. And the standard deviation of prediction accuracy was 0.002 for the respiratory motion and 0.001 for the tumor motion. Conclusion: The extreme learning machine method can provide an accurate and fast prediction of the respiratory motion and the tumor location and therefore can meet the requirements of real-time tumor-tracking in image guided radiotherapy.« less

  16. [Evaluation of performance of five bioinformatics software for the prediction of missense mutations].

    PubMed

    Chen, Qianting; Dai, Congling; Zhang, Qianjun; Du, Juan; Li, Wen

    2016-10-01

    To study the prediction performance evaluation with five kinds of bioinformatics software (SIFT, PolyPhen2, MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor). From own database for genetic mutations collected over the past five years, Chinese literature database, Human Gene Mutation Database, and dbSNP, 121 missense mutations confirmed by functional studies, and 121 missense mutations suspected to be pathogenic by pedigree analysis were used as positive gold standard, while 242 missense mutations with minor allele frequency (MAF)>5% in dominant hereditary diseases were used as negative gold standard. The selected mutations were predicted with the five software. Based on the results, the performance of the five software was evaluated for their sensitivity, specificity, positive predict value, false positive rate, negative predict value, false negative rate, false discovery rate, accuracy, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). In terms of sensitivity, negative predictive value and false negative rate, the rank was MutationTaster, PolyPhen2, Provean, SIFT, and MutationAssessor. For specificity and false positive rate, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor, SIFT, and PolyPhen2. For positive predict value and false discovery rate, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor, PolyPhen2, and SIFT. For area under the ROC curve (AUC) and accuracy, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, PolyPhen2, MutationAssessor, and SIFT. The prediction performance of software may be different when using different parameters. Among the five software, MutationTaster has the best prediction performance.

  17. Slow-theta power decreases during item-place encoding predict spatial accuracy of subsequent context recall.

    PubMed

    Crespo-García, Maité; Zeiller, Monika; Leupold, Claudia; Kreiselmeyer, Gernot; Rampp, Stefan; Hamer, Hajo M; Dalal, Sarang S

    2016-11-15

    Human hippocampal theta oscillations play a key role in accurate spatial coding. Associative encoding involves similar hippocampal networks but, paradoxically, is also characterized by theta power decreases. Here, we investigated how theta activity relates to associative encoding of place contexts resulting in accurate navigation. Using MEG, we found that slow-theta (2-5Hz) power negatively correlated with subsequent spatial accuracy for virtual contextual locations in posterior hippocampus and other cortical structures involved in spatial cognition. A rare opportunity to simultaneously record MEG and intracranial EEG in an epilepsy patient provided crucial insights: during power decreases, slow-theta in right anterior hippocampus and left inferior frontal gyrus phase-led the left temporal cortex and predicted spatial accuracy. Our findings indicate that decreased slow-theta activity reflects local and long-range neural mechanisms that encode accurate spatial contexts, and strengthens the view that local suppression of low-frequency activity is essential for more efficient processing of detailed information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A signal detection model predicts the effects of set size on visual search accuracy for feature, conjunction, triple conjunction, and disjunction displays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eckstein, M. P.; Thomas, J. P.; Palmer, J.; Shimozaki, S. S.

    2000-01-01

    Recently, quantitative models based on signal detection theory have been successfully applied to the prediction of human accuracy in visual search for a target that differs from distractors along a single attribute (feature search). The present paper extends these models for visual search accuracy to multidimensional search displays in which the target differs from the distractors along more than one feature dimension (conjunction, disjunction, and triple conjunction displays). The model assumes that each element in the display elicits a noisy representation for each of the relevant feature dimensions. The observer combines the representations across feature dimensions to obtain a single decision variable, and the stimulus with the maximum value determines the response. The model accurately predicts human experimental data on visual search accuracy in conjunctions and disjunctions of contrast and orientation. The model accounts for performance degradation without resorting to a limited-capacity spatially localized and temporally serial mechanism by which to bind information across feature dimensions.

  19. Accuracy of the Surgeons' Clinical Prediction of Postoperative Major Complications Using a Visual Analog Scale.

    PubMed

    Woodfield, John C; Sagar, Peter M; Thekkinkattil, Dinesh K; Gogu, Praveen; Plank, Lindsay D; Burke, Dermot

    2017-01-01

    Although the risk factors that contribute to postoperative complications are well recognized, prediction in the context of a particular patient is more difficult. We were interested in using a visual analog scale (VAS) to capture surgeons' prediction of the risk of a major complication and to examine whether this could be improved. The study was performed in 3 stages. In phase I, the surgeon assessed the risk of a major complication on a 100-mm VAS immediately before and after surgery. A quality control questionnaire was designed to check if the VAS was being scored as a linear scale. In phase II, a VAS with 6 subscales for different areas of clinical risk was introduced. In phase III, predictions were completed following the presentation of detailed feedback on the accuracy of prediction of complications. In total, 1295 predictions were made by 58 surgeons in 859 patients. Eight surgeons did not use a linear scale (6 logarithmic, 2 used 4 categories of risk). Surgeons made a meaningful prediction of major complications (preoperative median score 40 mm for complications v. 22 mm for no complication, P < 0.001; postoperative 46 mm v. 21 mm, P < 0.001). In phase I, the discrimination of prediction for preoperative (0.778), postoperative (0.810), and POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity) morbidity (0.750) prediction was similar. Although there was no improvement in prediction with a multidimensional VAS, there was a significant improvement in the discrimination of prediction after feedback (preoperative, 0.895; postoperative, 0.918). Awareness of different ways a VAS is scored is important when designing and interpreting studies. Clinical assessment of major complications by the surgeon was initially comparable to the prediction of the POSSUM morbidity score and improved significantly following the presentation of clinically relevant feedback. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Performance Feedback Processing Is Positively Biased As Predicted by Attribution Theory.

    PubMed

    Korn, Christoph W; Rosenblau, Gabriela; Rodriguez Buritica, Julia M; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2016-01-01

    A considerable literature on attribution theory has shown that healthy individuals exhibit a positivity bias when inferring the causes of evaluative feedback on their performance. They tend to attribute positive feedback internally (e.g., to their own abilities) but negative feedback externally (e.g., to environmental factors). However, all empirical demonstrations of this bias suffer from at least one of the three following drawbacks: First, participants directly judge explicit causes for their performance. Second, participants have to imagine events instead of experiencing them. Third, participants assess their performance only after receiving feedback and thus differences in baseline assessments cannot be excluded. It is therefore unclear whether the classically reported positivity bias generalizes to setups without these drawbacks. Here, we aimed at establishing the relevance of attributions for decision-making by showing an attribution-related positivity bias in a decision-making task. We developed a novel task, which allowed us to test how participants changed their evaluations in response to positive and negative feedback about performance. Specifically, we used videos of actors expressing different facial emotional expressions. Participants were first asked to evaluate the actors' credibility in expressing a particular emotion. After this initial rating, participants performed an emotion recognition task and did--or did not--receive feedback on their veridical performance. Finally, participants re-rated the actors' credibility, which provided a measure of how they changed their evaluations after feedback. Attribution theory predicts that participants change their evaluations of the actors' credibility toward the positive after receiving positive performance feedback and toward the negative after negative performance feedback. Our results were in line with this prediction. A control condition without feedback showed that correct or incorrect performance

  1. Performance Feedback Processing Is Positively Biased As Predicted by Attribution Theory

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez Buritica, Julia M.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2016-01-01

    A considerable literature on attribution theory has shown that healthy individuals exhibit a positivity bias when inferring the causes of evaluative feedback on their performance. They tend to attribute positive feedback internally (e.g., to their own abilities) but negative feedback externally (e.g., to environmental factors). However, all empirical demonstrations of this bias suffer from at least one of the three following drawbacks: First, participants directly judge explicit causes for their performance. Second, participants have to imagine events instead of experiencing them. Third, participants assess their performance only after receiving feedback and thus differences in baseline assessments cannot be excluded. It is therefore unclear whether the classically reported positivity bias generalizes to setups without these drawbacks. Here, we aimed at establishing the relevance of attributions for decision-making by showing an attribution-related positivity bias in a decision-making task. We developed a novel task, which allowed us to test how participants changed their evaluations in response to positive and negative feedback about performance. Specifically, we used videos of actors expressing different facial emotional expressions. Participants were first asked to evaluate the actors’ credibility in expressing a particular emotion. After this initial rating, participants performed an emotion recognition task and did—or did not—receive feedback on their veridical performance. Finally, participants re-rated the actors’ credibility, which provided a measure of how they changed their evaluations after feedback. Attribution theory predicts that participants change their evaluations of the actors’ credibility toward the positive after receiving positive performance feedback and toward the negative after negative performance feedback. Our results were in line with this prediction. A control condition without feedback showed that correct or incorrect

  2. Which are the most useful scales for predicting repeat self-harm? A systematic review evaluating risk scales using measures of diagnostic accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Quinlivan, L; Cooper, J; Davies, L; Hawton, K; Gunnell, D; Kapur, N

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aims of this review were to calculate the diagnostic accuracy statistics of risk scales following self-harm and consider which might be the most useful scales in clinical practice. Design Systematic review. Methods We based our search terms on those used in the systematic reviews carried out for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence self-harm guidelines (2012) and evidence update (2013), and updated the searches through to February 2015 (CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsychINFO). Methodological quality was assessed and three reviewers extracted data independently. We limited our analysis to cohort studies in adults using the outcome of repeat self-harm or attempted suicide. We calculated diagnostic accuracy statistics including measures of global accuracy. Statistical pooling was not possible due to heterogeneity. Results The eight papers included in the final analysis varied widely according to methodological quality and the content of scales employed. Overall, sensitivity of scales ranged from 6% (95% CI 5% to 6%) to 97% (CI 95% 94% to 98%). The positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 5% (95% CI 3% to 9%) to 84% (95% CI 80% to 87%). The diagnostic OR ranged from 1.01 (95% CI 0.434 to 2.5) to 16.3 (95%CI 12.5 to 21.4). Scales with high sensitivity tended to have low PPVs. Conclusions It is difficult to be certain which, if any, are the most useful scales for self-harm risk assessment. No scales perform sufficiently well so as to be recommended for routine clinical use. Further robust prospective studies are warranted to evaluate risk scales following an episode of self-harm. Diagnostic accuracy statistics should be considered in relation to the specific service needs, and scales should only be used as an adjunct to assessment. PMID:26873046

  3. Improved accuracy of alignment with patient-specific positioning guides compared with manual instrumentation in TKA.

    PubMed

    Ng, Vincent Y; DeClaire, Jeffrey H; Berend, Keith R; Gulick, Bethany C; Lombardi, Adolph V

    2012-01-01

    Coronal malalignment occurs frequently in TKA and may affect implant durability and knee function. Designed to improve alignment accuracy and precision, the patient-specific positioning guide is predicated on restoration of the overall mechanical axis and is a multifaceted new tool in achieving traditional goals of TKA. We compared the effectiveness of patient-specific positioning guides to manual instrumentation with intramedullary femoral and extramedullary tibial guides in restoring the mechanical axis of the extremity and achieving neutral coronal alignment of the femoral and tibial components. We retrospectively reviewed 569 TKAs performed with patient-specific positioning guides and 155 with manual instrumentation by two surgeons using postoperative long-leg radiographs. For all patients, we assessed the zone in which the overall mechanical axis passed through the knee, and for one surgeon's cases (105 patient-specific positioning guide, 55 manual instrumentation), we also measured the hip-knee-ankle angle and the individual component angles with respect to their mechanical axes. The overall mechanical axis passed through the central third of the knee more often with patient-specific positioning guides (88%) than with manual instrumentation (78%). The overall mean hip-knee-ankle angle for patient-specific positioning guides (180.6°) was similar to manual instrumentation (181.1°), but there were fewer ± 3° hip-knee-ankle angle outliers with patient-specific positioning guides (9%) than with manual instrumentation (22%). The overall mean tibial (89.9° versus 90.4°) and femoral (90.7° versus 91.3°) component angles were closer to neutral with patient-specific positioning guides than with manual instrumentation, but the rate of ± 2° outliers was similar for both the tibia (10% versus 7%) and femur (22% versus 18%). Patient-specific positioning guides can assist in achieving a neutral mechanical axis with reduction in outliers.

  4. Tracking Accuracy of a Real-Time Fiducial Tracking System for Patient Positioning and Monitoring in Radiation Therapy

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shchory, Tal; Schifter, Dan; Lichtman, Rinat

    Purpose: In radiation therapy there is a need to accurately know the location of the target in real time. A novel radioactive tracking technology has been developed to answer this need. The technology consists of a radioactive implanted fiducial marker designed to minimize migration and a linac mounted tracking device. This study measured the static and dynamic accuracy of the new tracking technology in a clinical radiation therapy environment. Methods and Materials: The tracking device was installed on the linac gantry. The radioactive marker was located in a tissue equivalent phantom. Marker location was measured simultaneously by the radioactive trackingmore » system and by a Microscribe G2 coordinate measuring machine (certified spatial accuracy of 0.38 mm). Localization consistency throughout a volume and absolute accuracy in the Fixed coordinate system were measured at multiple gantry angles over volumes of at least 10 cm in diameter centered at isocenter. Dynamic accuracy was measured with the marker located inside a breathing phantom. Results: The mean consistency for the static source was 0.58 mm throughout the tested region at all measured gantry angles. The mean absolute position error in the Fixed coordinate system for all gantry angles was 0.97 mm. The mean real-time tracking error for the dynamic source within the breathing phantom was less than 1 mm. Conclusions: This novel radioactive tracking technology has the potential to be useful in accurate target localization and real-time monitoring for radiation therapy.« less

  5. Tracking accuracy of a real-time fiducial tracking system for patient positioning and monitoring in radiation therapy.

    PubMed

    Shchory, Tal; Schifter, Dan; Lichtman, Rinat; Neustadter, David; Corn, Benjamin W

    2010-11-15

    In radiation therapy there is a need to accurately know the location of the target in real time. A novel radioactive tracking technology has been developed to answer this need. The technology consists of a radioactive implanted fiducial marker designed to minimize migration and a linac mounted tracking device. This study measured the static and dynamic accuracy of the new tracking technology in a clinical radiation therapy environment. The tracking device was installed on the linac gantry. The radioactive marker was located in a tissue equivalent phantom. Marker location was measured simultaneously by the radioactive tracking system and by a Microscribe G2 coordinate measuring machine (certified spatial accuracy of 0.38 mm). Localization consistency throughout a volume and absolute accuracy in the Fixed coordinate system were measured at multiple gantry angles over volumes of at least 10 cm in diameter centered at isocenter. Dynamic accuracy was measured with the marker located inside a breathing phantom. The mean consistency for the static source was 0.58 mm throughout the tested region at all measured gantry angles. The mean absolute position error in the Fixed coordinate system for all gantry angles was 0.97 mm. The mean real-time tracking error for the dynamic source within the breathing phantom was less than 1 mm. This novel radioactive tracking technology has the potential to be useful in accurate target localization and real-time monitoring for radiation therapy. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Relative Packing Groups in Template-Based Structure Prediction: Cooperative Effects of True Positive Constraints

    PubMed Central

    Day, Ryan; Qu, Xiaotao; Swanson, Rosemarie; Bohannan, Zach; Bliss, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Most current template-based structure prediction methods concentrate on finding the correct backbone conformation and then packing sidechains within that backbone. Our packing-based method derives distance constraints from conserved relative packing groups (RPGs). In our refinement approach, the RPGs provide a level of resolution that restrains global topology while allowing conformational sampling. In this study, we test our template-based structure prediction method using 51 prediction units from CASP7 experiments. RPG-based constraints are able to substantially improve approximately two-thirds of starting templates. Upon deeper investigation, we find that true positive spatial constraints, especially those non-local in sequence, derived from the RPGs were important to building nearer native models. Surprisingly, the fraction of incorrect or false positive constraints does not strongly influence the quality of the final candidate. This result indicates that our RPG-based true positive constraints sample the self-consistent, cooperative interactions of the native structure. The lack of such reinforcing cooperativity explains the weaker effect of false positive constraints. Generally, these findings are encouraging indications that RPGs will improve template-based structure prediction. PMID:21210729

  7. Accuracy of unloading with the anti-gravity treadmill.

    PubMed

    McNeill, David K P; de Heer, Hendrik D; Bounds, Roger G; Coast, J Richard

    2015-03-01

    Body weight (BW)-supported treadmill training has become increasingly popular in professional sports and rehabilitation. To date, little is known about the accuracy of the lower-body positive pressure treadmill. This study evaluated the accuracy of the BW support reported on the AlterG "Anti-Gravity" Treadmill across the spectrum of unloading, from full BW (100%) to 20% BW. Thirty-one adults (15 men and 16 women) with a mean age of 29.3 years (SD = 10.9), and a mean weight of 66.55 kg (SD = 12.68) were recruited. Participants were weighed outside the machine and then inside at 100-20% BW in 10% increments. Predicted BW, as presented by the AlterG equipment, was compared with measured BW. Significant differences between predicted and measured BW were found at all but 90% through 70% of BW. Differences were small (<5%), except at the extreme ends of the unloading spectrum. At 100% BW, the measured weight was lower than predicted (mean = 93.15%, SD = 1.21, p < 0.001 vs. predicted). At 30 and 20% BW, the measured weight was higher than predicted at 35.75% (SD = 2.89, p < 0.001), and 27.67% (SD = 3.76, p < 0.001), respectively. These findings suggest that there are significant differences between reported and measured BW support on the AlterG Anti-Gravity Treadmill®, with the largest differences (>5%) found at 100% BW and the greatest BW support (30 and 20% BW). These differences may be associated with changes in metabolic demand and maximum speed during walking or running and should be taken into consideration when using these devices for training and research purposes.

  8. Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schultz, Charles Alexander; Thipphavong, David P.; Erzberger, Heinz

    2012-01-01

    Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.

  9. Accuracy of physical examination for chronic lumbar radiculopathy

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Clinical examination of patients with chronic lumbar radiculopathy aims to clarify whether there is nerve root impingement. The aims of this study were to investigate the association between findings at clinical examination and nerve root impingement, to evaluate the accuracy of clinical index tests in a specialised care setting, and to see whether imaging clarifies the cause of chronic radicular pain. Methods A total of 116 patients referred with symptoms of lumbar radiculopathy lasting more than 12 weeks and at least one positive index test were included. The tests were the straight leg raising test, and tests for motor muscle strength, dermatome sensory loss, and reflex impairment. Magnetic resonance imaging (n = 109) or computer tomography (n = 7) were imaging reference standards. Images were analysed at the level of single nerve root(s), and nerve root impingement was classified as present or absent. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR) for detection of nerve root impingement were calculated for each individual index test. An overall clinical evaluation, concluding on the level and side of the radiculopathy, was performed. Results The prevalence of disc herniation was 77.8%. The diagnostic accuracy of individual index tests was low with no tests reaching positive LR >4.0 or negative LR <0.4. The overall clinical evaluation was slightly more accurate, with a positive LR of 6.28 (95% CI 1.06–37.21) for L4, 1.74 (95% CI 1.04–2.93) for L5, and 1.29 (95% CI 0.97–1.72) for S1 nerve root impingement. An overall clinical evaluation, concluding on the level and side of the radiculopathy was also performed, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with area under the curve (AUC) calculation for diagnostic accuracy of this evaluation was performed. Conclusions The accuracy of individual clinical index tests used to predict imaging findings of nerve root impingement in patients with chronic lumbar

  10. Predicting early positive change in multisystemic therapy with youth exhibiting antisocial behaviors.

    PubMed

    Tiernan, Kristine; Foster, Sharon L; Cunningham, Phillippe B; Brennan, Patricia; Whitmore, Elizabeth

    2015-03-01

    This study examined individual and family characteristics that predicted early positive change in the context of Multisystemic Therapy (MST). Families (n = 185; 65% male; average youth age 15 years) receiving MST in community settings completed assessments at the outset of treatment and 6-12 weeks into treatment. Early positive changes in youth antisocial behavior were assessed using the caregiver report on the Child Behavior Checklist Externalizing Behaviors subscale and youth report on the Self-Report Delinquency Scale. Overall, families showed significant positive changes by 6-12 weeks into treatment; these early changes were maintained into midtreatment 6-12 weeks later. Families who exhibited clinically significant gains early in treatment were more likely to terminate treatment successfully compared with those who did not show these gains. Low youth internalizing behaviors and absence of youth drug use predicted early positive changes in MST. High levels of parental monitoring and low levels of affiliation with deviant peers (mechanisms known to be associated with MST success) were also associated with early positive change. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Accuracy of MSCT Coronary Angiography with 64 Row CT Scanner—Facing the Facts

    PubMed Central

    Wehrschuetz, M.; Wehrschuetz, E.; Schuchlenz, H.; Schaffler, G.

    2010-01-01

    Improvements in multislice computed tomography (MSCT) angiography of the coronary vessels have enabled the minimally invasive detection of coronary artery stenoses, while quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) is the accepted reference standard for evaluation thereof. Sixteen-slice MSCT showed promising diagnostic accuracy in detecting coronary artery stenoses haemodynamically and the subsequent introduction of 64-slice scanners promised excellent and fast results for coronary artery studies. This prompted us to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the negative und positive predictive value of 64-slice MSCT in the detection of haemodynamically significant coronary artery stenoses. Thirty-seven consecutive subjects with suspected coronary artery disease were evaluated with MSCT angiography and the results compared with QCA. All vessels were considered for the assessment of significant coronary artery stenosis (diameter reduction ≥ 50%). Thirteen patients (35%) were identified as having significant coronary artery stenoses on QCA with 6.3% (35/555) affected segments. None of the coronary segments were excluded from analysis. Overall sensitivity for classifying stenoses of 64-slice MSCT was 69%, specificity was 92%, positive predictive value was 38% and negative predictive value was 98%. The interobserver variability for detection of significant lesions had a k-value of 0.43. Sixty-four-slice MSCT offers the diagnostic potential to detect coronary artery disease, to quantify haemodynamically significant coronary artery stenoses and to avoid unnecessary invasive coronary artery examinations. PMID:20567636

  12. vmPFC activation during a stressor predicts positive emotions during stress recovery

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Xi; Garcia, Katelyn M; Jung, Youngkyoo; Whitlow, Christopher T; McRae, Kateri; Waugh, Christian E

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Despite accruing evidence showing that positive emotions facilitate stress recovery, the neural basis for this effect remains unclear. To identify the underlying mechanism, we compared stress recovery for people reflecting on a stressor while in a positive emotional context with that for people in a neutral context. While blood–oxygen-level dependent data were being collected, participants (N = 43) performed a stressful anagram task, which was followed by a recovery period during which they reflected on the stressor while watching a positive or neutral video. Participants also reported positive and negative emotions throughout the task as well as retrospective thoughts about the task. Although there was no effect of experimental context on emotional recovery, we found that ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) activation during the stressor predicted more positive emotions during recovery, which in turn predicted less negative emotions during recovery. In addition, the relationship between vmPFC activation and positive emotions during recovery was mediated by decentering—the meta-cognitive detachment of oneself from one’s feelings. In sum, successful recovery from a stressor seems to be due to activation of positive emotion-related regions during the stressor itself as well as to their downstream effects on certain cognitive forms of emotion regulation. PMID:29462404

  13. Positive teacher and peer relations combine to predict primary school students' academic skill development.

    PubMed

    Kiuru, Noona; Aunola, Kaisa; Lerkkanen, Marja-Kristiina; Pakarinen, Eija; Poskiparta, Elisa; Ahonen, Timo; Poikkeus, Anna-Maija; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

    2015-04-01

    This study examined cross-lagged associations between positive teacher and peer relations and academic skill development. Reading and math skills were tested among 625 students in kindergarten and Grade 4. Teacher reports of positive affect toward each student and classmate reports of peer acceptance were gathered in Grades 1-3. The results showed, first, that positive teacher affect toward the student and peer acceptance were reciprocally associated: Positive teacher affect predicted higher peer acceptance, and higher peer acceptance predicted a higher level of positive teacher affect. Second, the effect of positive teacher affect on academic skill development was partly mediated via peer acceptance, while the effect of early academic skills on peer acceptance was partly mediated via positive teacher affect. The results suggest that a warm and supportive teacher can increase a student's peer acceptance, which, in turn, is positively associated with learning outcomes. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Diagnostic Accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex Scores in Predicting the Presence of Esophageal Varices in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Deng, Han; Qi, Xingshun; Guo, Xiaozhong

    2015-10-01

    Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores may be simple and convenient noninvasive diagnostic tests, because they are based on the regular laboratory tests and demographic data. This study aimed to systematically evaluate their diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of varices in liver cirrhosis.All relevant papers were searched via PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI, and Wanfang databases. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUSROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR and NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated.Overall, 12, 4, 5, 0, 0, 4, 3, and 1 paper was identified to explore the diagnostic accuracy of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, FI, King, Lok, Forns, and FibroIndex scores, respectively. The AUSROCs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were 0.6774, 0.7275, 0.7755, 0.7885, and 0.7517, respectively; and those for the prediction of large varices were 0.7278, 0.7448, 0.7095, 0.7264, and 0.6530, respectively. The diagnostic threshold effects of FIB-4 and Forns scores for the prediction of varices were statistically significant. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, and Lok scores for the prediction of varices were 0.60/0.67/1.77/0.58/3.13, 0.64/0.63/1.97/0.54/4.18, and 0.74/0.68/2.34/0.40/5.76, respectively. The sensitivities/specificities/PLRs/NLRs/DORs of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores for the prediction of large varices were 0.65/0.66/2.15/0.47/4.97, 0.68/0.58/2.07/0.54/3.93, 0.62/0.64/2.02/0.56/3.57, 0.78/0.63/2.09/0.37/5.55, and 0.65/0.61/1.62/0.59/2.75, respectively.APRI, AAR, FIB-4, Lok, and Forns scores had low to moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting the presence of varices in liver cirrhosis.

  15. Less Structured Movement Patterns Predict Severity of Positive Syndrome, Excitement, and Disorganization

    PubMed Central

    Walther, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Disorganized behavior is a key symptom of schizophrenia. The objective assessment of disorganized behavior is particularly challenging. Actigraphy has enabled the objective assessment of motor behavior in various settings. Reduced motor activity was associated with negative syndrome scores, but simple motor activity analyses were not informative on other symptom dimensions. The analysis of movement patterns, however, could be more informative for assessing schizophrenia symptom dimensions. Here, we use time series analyses on actigraphic data of 100 schizophrenia spectrum disorder patients. Actigraphy recording intervals were set at 2 s. Data from 2 defined 60-min periods were analyzed, and partial autocorrelations of the actigraphy time series indicated predictability of movements in each individual. Increased positive syndrome scores were associated with reduced predictability of movements but not with the overall amount of movement. Negative syndrome scores were associated with low activity levels but unrelated with predictability of movement. The factors disorganization and excitement were related to movement predictability but emotional distress was not. Thus, the predictability of objectively assessed motor behavior may be a marker of positive symptoms and disorganized behavior. This behavior could become relevant for translational research. PMID:23502433

  16. Openstage: A Low-Cost Motorized Microscope Stage with Sub-Micron Positioning Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Robert A. A.; Eifert, Robert W.; Turner, Glenn C.

    2014-01-01

    Recent progress in intracellular calcium sensors and other fluorophores has promoted the widespread adoption of functional optical imaging in the life sciences. Home-built multiphoton microscopes are easy to build, highly customizable, and cost effective. For many imaging applications a 3-axis motorized stage is critical, but commercially available motorization hardware (motorized translators, controller boxes, etc) are often very expensive. Furthermore, the firmware on commercial motor controllers cannot easily be altered and is not usually designed with a microscope stage in mind. Here we describe an open-source motorization solution that is simple to construct, yet far cheaper and more customizable than commercial offerings. The cost of the controller and motorization hardware are under $1000. Hardware costs are kept low by replacing linear actuators with high quality stepper motors. Electronics are assembled from commonly available hobby components, which are easy to work with. Here we describe assembly of the system and quantify the positioning accuracy of all three axes. We obtain positioning repeatability of the order of in X/Y and in Z. A hand-held control-pad allows the user to direct stage motion precisely over a wide range of speeds ( to ), rapidly store and return to different locations, and execute “jumps” of a fixed size. In addition, the system can be controlled from a PC serial port. Our “OpenStage” controller is sufficiently flexible that it could be used to drive other devices, such as micro-manipulators, with minimal modifications. PMID:24586468

  17. CSmetaPred: a consensus method for prediction of catalytic residues.

    PubMed

    Choudhary, Preeti; Kumar, Shailesh; Bachhawat, Anand Kumar; Pandit, Shashi Bhushan

    2017-12-22

    Knowledge of catalytic residues can play an essential role in elucidating mechanistic details of an enzyme. However, experimental identification of catalytic residues is a tedious and time-consuming task, which can be expedited by computational predictions. Despite significant development in active-site prediction methods, one of the remaining issues is ranked positions of putative catalytic residues among all ranked residues. In order to improve ranking of catalytic residues and their prediction accuracy, we have developed a meta-approach based method CSmetaPred. In this approach, residues are ranked based on the mean of normalized residue scores derived from four well-known catalytic residue predictors. The mean residue score of CSmetaPred is combined with predicted pocket information to improve prediction performance in meta-predictor, CSmetaPred_poc. Both meta-predictors are evaluated on two comprehensive benchmark datasets and three legacy datasets using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Precision Recall (PR) curves. The visual and quantitative analysis of ROC and PR curves shows that meta-predictors outperform their constituent methods and CSmetaPred_poc is the best of evaluated methods. For instance, on CSAMAC dataset CSmetaPred_poc (CSmetaPred) achieves highest Mean Average Specificity (MAS), a scalar measure for ROC curve, of 0.97 (0.96). Importantly, median predicted rank of catalytic residues is the lowest (best) for CSmetaPred_poc. Considering residues ranked ≤20 classified as true positive in binary classification, CSmetaPred_poc achieves prediction accuracy of 0.94 on CSAMAC dataset. Moreover, on the same dataset CSmetaPred_poc predicts all catalytic residues within top 20 ranks for ~73% of enzymes. Furthermore, benchmarking of prediction on comparative modelled structures showed that models result in better prediction than only sequence based predictions. These analyses suggest that CSmetaPred_poc is able to rank putative catalytic

  18. Video image analysis in the Australian meat industry - precision and accuracy of predicting lean meat yield in lamb carcasses.

    PubMed

    Hopkins, D L; Safari, E; Thompson, J M; Smith, C R

    2004-06-01

    A wide selection of lamb types of mixed sex (ewes and wethers) were slaughtered at a commercial abattoir and during this process images of 360 carcasses were obtained online using the VIAScan® system developed by Meat and Livestock Australia. Soft tissue depth at the GR site (thickness of tissue over the 12th rib 110 mm from the midline) was measured by an abattoir employee using the AUS-MEAT sheep probe (PGR). Another measure of this thickness was taken in the chiller using a GR knife (NGR). Each carcass was subsequently broken down to a range of trimmed boneless retail cuts and the lean meat yield determined. The current industry model for predicting meat yield uses hot carcass weight (HCW) and tissue depth at the GR site. A low level of accuracy and precision was found when HCW and PGR were used to predict lean meat yield (R(2)=0.19, r.s.d.=2.80%), which could be improved markedly when PGR was replaced by NGR (R(2)=0.41, r.s.d.=2.39%). If the GR measures were replaced by 8 VIAScan® measures then greater prediction accuracy could be achieved (R(2)=0.52, r.s.d.=2.17%). A similar result was achieved when the model was based on principal components (PCs) computed from the 8 VIAScan® measures (R(2)=0.52, r.s.d.=2.17%). The use of PCs also improved the stability of the model compared to a regression model based on HCW and NGR. The transportability of the models was tested by randomly dividing the data set and comparing coefficients and the level of accuracy and precision. Those models based on PCs were superior to those based on regression. It is demonstrated that with the appropriate modeling the VIAScan® system offers a workable method for predicting lean meat yield automatically.

  19. Integrated CFD and Controls Analysis Interface for High Accuracy Liquid Propellant Slosh Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsell, Brandon; Griffin, David; Schallhorn, Paul; Roth, Jacob

    2012-01-01

    Coupling computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with a controls analysis tool elegantly allows for high accuracy predictions of the interaction between sloshing liquid propellants and the control system of a launch vehicle. Instead of relying on mechanical analogs which are n0t va lid during all stages of flight, this method allows for a direct link between the vehicle dynamic environments calculated by the solver in the controls analysis tool to the fluid now equations solved by the CFD code. This paper describes such a coupling methodology, presents the results of a series of test cases, and compares said results against equivalent results from extensively validated tools. The coupling methodology, described herein, has proven to be highly accurate in a variety of different cases.

  20. INFLUENCE OF THE GALACTIC GRAVITATIONAL FIELD ON THE POSITIONAL ACCURACY OF EXTRAGALACTIC SOURCES

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Larchenkova, Tatiana I.; Lutovinov, Alexander A.; Lyskova, Natalya S.

    We investigate the influence of random variations of the Galactic gravitational field on the apparent celestial positions of extragalactic sources. The basic statistical characteristics of a stochastic process (first-order moments, an autocorrelation function and a power spectral density) are used to describe a light ray deflection in a gravitational field of randomly moving point masses as a function of the source coordinates. We map a 2D distribution of the standard deviation of the angular shifts in positions of distant sources (including reference sources of the International Celestial Reference Frame) with respect to their true positions. For different Galactic matter distributionsmore » the standard deviation of the offset angle can reach several tens of μ as (microarcsecond) toward the Galactic center, decreasing down to 4–6 μ as at high galactic latitudes. The conditional standard deviation (“jitter”) of 2.5 μ as is reached within 10 years at high galactic latitudes and within a few months toward the inner part of the Galaxy. The photometric microlensing events are not expected to be disturbed by astrometric random variations anywhere except the inner part of the Galaxy as the Einstein–Chvolson times are typically much shorter than the jittering timescale. While a jitter of a single reference source can be up to dozens of μ as over some reasonable observational time, using a sample of reference sources would reduce the error in relative astrometry. The obtained results can be used for estimating the physical upper limits on the time-dependent accuracy of astrometric measurements.« less

  1. THE PANC 3 SCORE PREDICTING SEVERITY OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS.

    PubMed

    Beduschi, Murilo Gamba; Mello, André Luiz Parizi; VON-Mühlen, Bruno; Franzon, Orli

    2016-03-01

    About 20% of cases of acute pancreatitis progress to a severe form, leading to high mortality rates. Several studies suggested methods to identify patients that will progress more severely. However, most studies present problems when used on daily practice. To assess the efficacy of the PANC 3 score to predict acute pancreatitis severity and its relation to clinical outcome. Acute pancreatitis patients were assessed as to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), etiology of pancreatitis, intensive care need, length of stay, length of stay in intensive care unit and mortality. The PANC 3 score was determined within the first 24 hours after diagnosis and compared to acute pancreatitis grade of the Revised Atlanta classification. Out of 64 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, 58 met the inclusion criteria. The PANC 3 score was positive in five cases (8.6%), pancreatitis progressed to a severe form in 10 cases (17.2%) and five patients (8.6%) died. Patients with a positive score and severe pancreatitis required intensive care more often, and stayed for a longer period in intensive care units. The PANC 3 score showed sensitivity of 50%, specificity of 100%, accuracy of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 100% and negative predictive value of 90.6% in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. The PANC 3 score is useful to assess acute pancreatitis because it is easy and quick to use, has high specificity, high accuracy and high predictive value in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis.

  2. The accuracy of HIV rapid testing in integrated bio-behavioral surveys of men who have sex with men across 5 Provinces in South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Kufa, Tendesayi; Lane, Tim; Manyuchi, Albert; Singh, Beverley; Isdahl, Zachary; Osmand, Thomas; Grasso, Mike; Struthers, Helen; McIntyre, James; Chipeta, Zawadi; Puren, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    Abstract We describe the accuracy of serial rapid HIV testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa and discuss the implications for HIV testing and prevention. This was a cross-sectional survey conducted at five stand-alone facilities from five provinces. Demographic, behavioral, and clinical data were collected. Dried blood spots were obtained for HIV-related testing. Participants were offered rapid HIV testing using 2 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in series. In the laboratory, reference HIV testing was conducted using a third-generation enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and a fourth-generation EIA as confirmatory. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive, and false-negative rates were determined. Between August 2015 and July 2016, 2503 participants were enrolled. Of these, 2343 were tested by RDT on site with a further 2137 (91.2%) having definitive results on both RDT and EIA. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false-positive rates, and false-negative rates were 92.6% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 89.6–94.8], 99.4% (95% CI 98.9–99.7), 97.4% (95% CI 95.2–98.6), 98.3% (95% CI 97.6–98.8), 0.6% (95% CI 0.3–1.1), and 7.4% (95% CI 5.2–10.4), respectively. False negatives were similar to true positives with respect to virological profiles. Overall accuracy of the RDT algorithm was high, but sensitivity was lower than expected. Post-HIV test counseling should include discussions of possible false-negative results and the need for retesting among HIV negatives. PMID:28700474

  3. Accuracy evaluation of Fourier series analysis and singular spectrum analysis for predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasmita, Yoga; Darmawan, Gumgum

    2017-08-01

    This research aims to evaluate the performance of forecasting by Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) which are more explorative and not requiring parametric assumption. Those methods are applied to predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia from January 2005 to December 2016 (monthly). Both models are suitable for seasonal and trend component data. Technically, FSA defines time domain as the result of trend and seasonal component in different frequencies which is difficult to identify in the time domain analysis. With the hidden period is 2,918 ≈ 3 and significant model order is 3, FSA model is used to predict testing data. Meanwhile, SSA has two main processes, decomposition and reconstruction. SSA decomposes the time series data into different components. The reconstruction process starts with grouping the decomposition result based on similarity period of each component in trajectory matrix. With the optimum of window length (L = 53) and grouping effect (r = 4), SSA predicting testing data. Forecasting accuracy evaluation is done based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result shows that in the next 12 month, SSA has MAPE = 13.54 percent, MAE = 61,168.43 and RMSE = 75,244.92 and FSA has MAPE = 28.19 percent, MAE = 119,718.43 and RMSE = 142,511.17. Therefore, to predict volume of motorcycle sales in the next period should use SSA method which has better performance based on its accuracy.

  4. Does low dose (13)C-urea breath test maintain a satisfactory accuracy in diagnosing Helicobacter pylori infection?

    PubMed

    Coelho, Luiz Gonzaga Vaz; Silva, Arilto Eleutério da; Coelho, Maria Clara de Freitas; Penna, Francisco Guilherme Cancela e; Ferreira, Rafael Otto Antunes; Santa-Cecilia, Elisa Viana

    2011-01-01

    The standard doses of (13)C-urea in (13)C-urea breath test is 75 mg. To assess the diagnostic accuracy of (13)C-urea breath test containing 25 mg of (13)C-urea comparing with the standard doses of 75 mg in the diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection. Two hundred seventy adult patients (96 males, 174 females, median age 41 years) performed the standard (13)C-urea breath test (75 mg (13)C-urea) and repeated the (13)C-urea breath test using only 25 mg of (13)C-urea within a 2 week interval. The test was performed using an infrared isotope analyzer. Patients were considered positive if delta over baseline was >4.0‰ at the gold standard test. One hundred sixty-one (59.6%) patients were H. pylori negative and 109 (40.4%) were positive by the gold standard test. Using receiver operating characteristic analysis we established a cut-off value of 3.4% as the best value of 25 mg (13)C-urea breath test to discriminate positive and negative patients, considering the H. pylori prevalence (95% CI: 23.9-37.3) at our setting. Therefore, we obtained to 25 mg (13)C-urea breath test a diagnostic accuracy of 92.9% (95% CI: 88.1-97.9), sensitivity 83.5% (95% CI: 75.4-89.3), specificity 99.4% (95% CI: 96.6-99.9), positive predictive value 98.3% (95% CI: 92.4-99.4), and negative predictive value 93.0% (95% CI: 88.6-96.1). Low-dose (13)C-urea breath test (25 mg (13)C-urea) does not reach accuracy sufficient to be recommended in clinical setting where a 30% prevalence of H. pylori infection is observed. Further studies should be done to determine the diagnostic accuracy of low doses of (13)C-urea in the urea breath test.

  5. New models and online calculator for predicting non-sentinel lymph node status in sentinel lymph node positive breast cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Kohrt, Holbrook E; Olshen, Richard A; Bermas, Honnie R; Goodson, William H; Wood, Douglas J; Henry, Solomon; Rouse, Robert V; Bailey, Lisa; Philben, Vicki J; Dirbas, Frederick M; Dunn, Jocelyn J; Johnson, Denise L; Wapnir, Irene L; Carlson, Robert W; Stockdale, Frank E; Hansen, Nora M; Jeffrey, Stefanie S

    2008-03-04

    Current practice is to perform a completion axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for breast cancer patients with tumor-involved sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs), although fewer than half will have non-sentinel node (NSLN) metastasis. Our goal was to develop new models to quantify the risk of NSLN metastasis in SLN-positive patients and to compare predictive capabilities to another widely used model. We constructed three models to predict NSLN status: recursive partitioning with receiver operating characteristic curves (RP-ROC), boosted Classification and Regression Trees (CART), and multivariate logistic regression (MLR) informed by CART. Data were compiled from a multicenter Northern California and Oregon database of 784 patients who prospectively underwent SLN biopsy and completion ALND. We compared the predictive abilities of our best model and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Breast Cancer Nomogram (Nomogram) in our dataset and an independent dataset from Northwestern University. 285 patients had positive SLNs, of which 213 had known angiolymphatic invasion status and 171 had complete pathologic data including hormone receptor status. 264 (93%) patients had limited SLN disease (micrometastasis, 70%, or isolated tumor cells, 23%). 101 (35%) of all SLN-positive patients had tumor-involved NSLNs. Three variables (tumor size, angiolymphatic invasion, and SLN metastasis size) predicted risk in all our models. RP-ROC and boosted CART stratified patients into four risk levels. MLR informed by CART was most accurate. Using two composite predictors calculated from three variables, MLR informed by CART was more accurate than the Nomogram computed using eight predictors. In our dataset, area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.83/0.85 for MLR (n = 213/n = 171) and 0.77 for Nomogram (n = 171). When applied to an independent dataset (n = 77), AUC was 0.74 for our model and 0.62 for Nomogram. The composite predictors in our model were the product of angiolymphatic invasion and size of SLN

  6. Sequence fingerprints distinguish erroneous from correct predictions of intrinsically disordered protein regions.

    PubMed

    Saravanan, Konda Mani; Dunker, A Keith; Krishnaswamy, Sankaran

    2017-12-27

    More than 60 prediction methods for intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) have been developed over the years, many of which are accessible on the World Wide Web. Nearly, all of these predictors give balanced accuracies in the ~65%-~80% range. Since predictors are not perfect, further studies are required to uncover the role of amino acid residues in native IDP as compared to predicted IDP regions. In the present work, we make use of sequences of 100% predicted IDP regions, false positive disorder predictions, and experimentally determined IDP regions to distinguish the characteristics of native versus predicted IDP regions. A higher occurrence of asparagine is observed in sequences of native IDP regions but not in sequences of false positive predictions of IDP regions. The occurrences of certain combinations of amino acids at the pentapeptide level provide a distinguishing feature in the IDPs with respect to globular proteins. The distinguishing features presented in this paper provide insights into the sequence fingerprints of amino acid residues in experimentally determined as compared to predicted IDP regions. These observations and additional work along these lines should enable the development of improvements in the accuracy of disorder prediction algorithm.

  7. Accuracy of ultrasonography in the detection of severe hepatic lipidosis in cats.

    PubMed

    Yeager, A E; Mohammed, H

    1992-04-01

    The accuracy of ultrasonography in detection of feline hepatic lipidosis was studied retrospectively. The following ultrasonographic criteria were associated positively with severe hepatic lipidosis: the liver hyperechoic, compared with falciform fat; the liver isoechoic or hyperechoic, compared with omental fat; poor visualization of intrahepatic vessel borders; and increased attenuation of sound by the liver. In a group of 36 cats with clinically apparent hepatobiliary disease and in which liver biopsy was done, liver hyperechoic, compared with falciform fat, was the best criterion for diagnosis of severe hepatic lipidosis with 91% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 100% positive predictive value.

  8. Discrimination in measures of knowledge monitoring accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Was, Christopher A.

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge monitoring predicts academic outcomes in many contexts. However, measures of knowledge monitoring accuracy are often incomplete. In the current study, a measure of students’ ability to discriminate known from unknown information as a component of knowledge monitoring was considered. Undergraduate students’ knowledge monitoring accuracy was assessed and used to predict final exam scores in a specific course. It was found that gamma, a measure commonly used as the measure of knowledge monitoring accuracy, accounted for a small, but significant amount of variance in academic performance whereas the discrimination and bias indexes combined to account for a greater amount of variance in academic performance. PMID:25339979

  9. Serum ferritin in combination with prostate-specific antigen improves predictive accuracy for prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xijuan; An, Peng; Zeng, Jiling; Liu, Xiaoyan; Wang, Bo; Fang, Xuexian; Wang, Fudi; Ren, Guoping; Min, Junxia

    2017-03-14

    Ferritin is highly expressed in many cancer types. Although a few studies have reported an association between high serum ferritin levels and an increased risk of prostate cancer, the results are inconsistent. Therefore, we performed a large case-control study consisting of 2002 prostate cancer patients and 951 control patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). We found that high ferritin levels were positively associated with increased serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and prostate cancer risk; each 100 ng/ml increase in serum ferritin increased the odds ratio (OR) by 1.20 (95% CI: 1.13-1.36). In the prostate cancer group, increased serum ferritin levels were significantly correlated with higher Gleason scores (p < 0.001). Notably, serum PSA values had even higher predictive accuracy among prostate cancer patients with serum ferritin levels > 400 ng/ml (Gleason score + total PSA correlation: r = 0.38; Gleason score + free PSA correlation: r = 0.49). Moreover, using immunohistochemistry, we found that prostate tissue ferritin levels were significantly higher (p < 0.001) in prostate cancer patients (n = 129) compared to BPH controls (n = 31). Prostate tissue ferritin levels were also highly correlated with serum ferritin when patients were classified by cancer severity (r = 0.81). Importantly, we found no correlation between serum ferritin levels and the inflammation marker C-reactive protein (CRP) in prostate cancer patients. In conclusion, serum ferritin is significantly associated with prostate cancer and may serve as a non-invasive biomarker to complement the PSA test in the diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of prostate cancer.

  10. Accuracy of the actuator disc-RANS approach for predicting the performance and wake of tidal turbines.

    PubMed

    Batten, W M J; Harrison, M E; Bahaj, A S

    2013-02-28

    The actuator disc-RANS model has widely been used in wind and tidal energy to predict the wake of a horizontal axis turbine. The model is appropriate where large-scale effects of the turbine on a flow are of interest, for example, when considering environmental impacts, or arrays of devices. The accuracy of the model for modelling the wake of tidal stream turbines has not been demonstrated, and flow predictions presented in the literature for similar modelled scenarios vary significantly. This paper compares the results of the actuator disc-RANS model, where the turbine forces have been derived using a blade-element approach, to experimental data measured in the wake of a scaled turbine. It also compares the results with those of a simpler uniform actuator disc model. The comparisons show that the model is accurate and can predict up to 94 per cent of the variation in the experimental velocity data measured on the centreline of the wake, therefore demonstrating that the actuator disc-RANS model is an accurate approach for modelling a turbine wake, and a conservative approach to predict performance and loads. It can therefore be applied to similar scenarios with confidence.

  11. Predicting Intervention Effectiveness from Reading Accuracy and Rate Measures through the Instructional Hierarchy: Evidence for a Skill-by-Treatment Interaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Szadokierski, Isadora; Burns, Matthew K.; McComas, Jennifer J.

    2017-01-01

    The current study used the learning hierarchy/instructional hierarchy phases of acquisition and fluency to predict intervention effectiveness based on preintervention reading skills. Preintervention reading accuracy (percentage of words read correctly) and rate (number of words read correctly per minute) were assessed for 49 second- and…

  12. Clinical accuracy of point-of-care urine culture in general practice.

    PubMed

    Holm, Anne; Cordoba, Gloria; Sørensen, Tina Møller; Jessen, Lisbeth Rem; Frimodt-Møller, Niels; Siersma, Volkert; Bjerrum, Lars

    2017-06-01

    To assess the clinical accuracy (sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive predictive value and negative predictive value) of two point-of-care (POC) urine culture tests for the identification of urinary tract infection (UTI) in general practice. Prospective diagnostic accuracy study comparing two index tests (Flexicult™ SSI-Urinary Kit or ID Flexicult™) with a reference standard (urine culture performed in the microbiological department). General practice in the Copenhagen area patients. Adult female patients consulting their general practitioner with suspected uncomplicated, symptomatic UTI. (1) Overall accuracy of POC urine culture in general practice. (2) Individual accuracy of each of the two POC tests in this study. (3) Accuracy of POC urine culture in general practice with enterococci excluded, since enterococci are known to multiply in boric acid used for transportation for the reference standard. (4) Accuracy based on expert reading of photographs of POC urine cultures performed in general practice. Standard culture performed in the microbiological department was used as reference standard for all four measures. Twenty general practices recruited 341 patients with suspected uncomplicated UTI. The overall agreement between index test and reference was 0.76 (CI: 0.71-0.80), SEN 0.88 (CI: 0.83-0.92) and SPE 0.55 (CI: 0.46-0.64). The two POC tests produced similar results individually. Overall agreement with enterococci excluded was 0.82 (0.77-0.86) and agreement between expert readings of photographs and reference results was 0.81 (CI: 0.76-0.85). POC culture used in general practice has high SEN but low SPE. Low SPE could be due to both misinterpretation in general practice and an imperfect reference standard. Registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02323087.

  13. A method which can enhance the optical-centering accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xue-min; Zhang, Xue-jun; Dai, Yi-dan; Yu, Tao; Duan, Jia-you; Li, Hua

    2014-09-01

    Optical alignment machining is an effective method to ensure the co-axiality of optical system. The co-axiality accuracy is determined by optical-centering accuracy of single optical unit, which is determined by the rotating accuracy of lathe and the optical-centering judgment accuracy. When the rotating accuracy of 0.2um can be achieved, the leading error can be ignored. An axis-determination tool which is based on the principle of auto-collimation can be used to determine the only position of centerscope is designed. The only position is the position where the optical axis of centerscope is coincided with the rotating axis of the lathe. Also a new optical-centering judgment method is presented. A system which includes the axis-determination tool and the new optical-centering judgment method can enhance the optical-centering accuracy to 0.003mm.

  14. Small angle X-ray scattering and cross-linking for data assisted protein structure prediction in CASP 12 with prospects for improved accuracy.

    PubMed

    Ogorzalek, Tadeusz L; Hura, Greg L; Belsom, Adam; Burnett, Kathryn H; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tainer, John A; Rappsilber, Juri; Tsutakawa, Susan E; Fidelis, Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Experimental data offers empowering constraints for structure prediction. These constraints can be used to filter equivalently scored models or more powerfully within optimization functions toward prediction. In CASP12, Small Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS) and Cross-Linking Mass Spectrometry (CLMS) data, measured on an exemplary set of novel fold targets, were provided to the CASP community of protein structure predictors. As solution-based techniques, SAXS and CLMS can efficiently measure states of the full-length sequence in its native solution conformation and assembly. However, this experimental data did not substantially improve prediction accuracy judged by fits to crystallographic models. One issue, beyond intrinsic limitations of the algorithms, was a disconnect between crystal structures and solution-based measurements. Our analyses show that many targets had substantial percentages of disordered regions (up to 40%) or were multimeric or both. Thus, solution measurements of flexibility and assembly support variations that may confound prediction algorithms trained on crystallographic data and expecting globular fully-folded monomeric proteins. Here, we consider the CLMS and SAXS data collected, the information in these solution measurements, and the challenges in incorporating them into computational prediction. As improvement opportunities were only partly realized in CASP12, we provide guidance on how data from the full-length biological unit and the solution state can better aid prediction of the folded monomer or subunit. We furthermore describe strategic integrations of solution measurements with computational prediction programs with the aim of substantially improving foundational knowledge and the accuracy of computational algorithms for biologically-relevant structure predictions for proteins in solution. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. The accuracy of Genomic Selection in Norwegian red cattle assessed by cross-validation.

    PubMed

    Luan, Tu; Woolliams, John A; Lien, Sigbjørn; Kent, Matthew; Svendsen, Morten; Meuwissen, Theo H E

    2009-11-01

    Genomic Selection (GS) is a newly developed tool for the estimation of breeding values for quantitative traits through the use of dense markers covering the whole genome. For a successful application of GS, accuracy of the prediction of genomewide breeding value (GW-EBV) is a key issue to consider. Here we investigated the accuracy and possible bias of GW-EBV prediction, using real bovine SNP genotyping (18,991 SNPs) and phenotypic data of 500 Norwegian Red bulls. The study was performed on milk yield, fat yield, protein yield, first lactation mastitis traits, and calving ease. Three methods, best linear unbiased prediction (G-BLUP), Bayesian statistics (BayesB), and a mixture model approach (MIXTURE), were used to estimate marker effects, and their accuracy and bias were estimated by using cross-validation. The accuracies of the GW-EBV prediction were found to vary widely between 0.12 and 0.62. G-BLUP gave overall the highest accuracy. We observed a strong relationship between the accuracy of the prediction and the heritability of the trait. GW-EBV prediction for production traits with high heritability achieved higher accuracy and also lower bias than health traits with low heritability. To achieve a similar accuracy for the health traits probably more records will be needed.

  16. An Integrative Model of Physiological Traits Can be Used to Predict Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Response to Non Positive Airway Pressure Therapy.

    PubMed

    Owens, Robert L; Edwards, Bradley A; Eckert, Danny J; Jordan, Amy S; Sands, Scott A; Malhotra, Atul; White, David P; Loring, Stephen H; Butler, James P; Wellman, Andrew

    2015-06-01

    Both anatomical and nonanatomical traits are important in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) pathogenesis. We have previously described a model combining these traits, but have not determined its diagnostic accuracy to predict OSA. A valid model, and knowledge of the published effect sizes of trait manipulation, would also allow us to predict the number of patients with OSA who might be effectively treated without using positive airway pressure (PAP). Fifty-seven subjects with and without OSA underwent standard clinical and research sleep studies to measure OSA severity and the physiological traits important for OSA pathogenesis, respectively. The traits were incorporated into a physiological model to predict OSA. The model validity was determined by comparing the model prediction of OSA to the clinical diagnosis of OSA. The effect of various trait manipulations was then simulated to predict the proportion of patients treated by each intervention. The model had good sensitivity (80%) and specificity (100%) for predicting OSA. A single intervention on one trait would be predicted to treat OSA in approximately one quarter of all patients. Combination therapy with two interventions was predicted to treat OSA in ∼50% of patients. An integrative model of physiological traits can be used to predict population-wide and individual responses to non-PAP therapy. Many patients with OSA would be expected to be treated based on known trait manipulations, making a strong case for the importance of non-anatomical traits in OSA pathogenesis and the effectiveness of non-PAP therapies. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  17. Evaluating morphometric body mass prediction equations with a juvenile human test sample: accuracy and applicability to small-bodied hominins.

    PubMed

    Walker, Christopher S; Yapuncich, Gabriel S; Sridhar, Shilpa; Cameron, Noël; Churchill, Steven E

    2018-02-01

    Body mass is an ecologically and biomechanically important variable in the study of hominin biology. Regression equations derived from recent human samples allow for the reasonable prediction of body mass of later, more human-like, and generally larger hominins from hip joint dimensions, but potential differences in hip biomechanics across hominin taxa render their use questionable with some earlier taxa (i.e., Australopithecus spp.). Morphometric prediction equations using stature and bi-iliac breadth avoid this problem, but their applicability to early hominins, some of which differ in both size and proportions from modern adult humans, has not been demonstrated. Here we use mean stature, bi-iliac breadth, and body mass from a global sample of human juveniles ranging in age from 6 to 12 years (n = 530 age- and sex-specific group annual means from 33 countries/regions) to evaluate the accuracy of several published morphometric prediction equations when applied to small humans. Though the body proportions of modern human juveniles likely differ from those of small-bodied early hominins, human juveniles (like fossil hominins) often differ in size and proportions from adult human reference samples and, accordingly, serve as a useful model for assessing the robustness of morphometric prediction equations. Morphometric equations based on adults systematically underpredict body mass in the youngest age groups and moderately overpredict body mass in the older groups, which fall in the body size range of adult Australopithecus (∼26-46 kg). Differences in body proportions, notably the ratio of lower limb length to stature, influence predictive accuracy. Ontogenetic changes in these body proportions likely influence the shift in prediction error (from under- to overprediction). However, because morphometric equations are reasonably accurate when applied to this juvenile test sample, we argue these equations may be used to predict body mass in small-bodied hominins

  18. Happiness as a motivator: positive affect predicts primary control striving for career and educational goals.

    PubMed

    Haase, Claudia M; Poulin, Michael J; Heckhausen, Jutta

    2012-08-01

    What motivates individuals to invest time and effort and overcome obstacles (i.e., strive for primary control) when pursuing important goals? We propose that positive affect predicts primary control striving for career and educational goals, and we explore the mediating role of control beliefs. In Study 1, positive affect predicted primary control striving for career goals in a two-wave longitudinal study of a U.S. sample. In Study 2, positive affect predicted primary control striving for career and educational goals and objective career outcomes in a six-wave longitudinal study of a German sample. Control beliefs partially mediated the longitudinal associations with primary control striving. Thus, when individuals experience positive affect, they become more motivated to invest time and effort, and overcome obstacles when pursuing their goals, in part because they believe they have more control over attaining their goals.

  19. Comparison of the accuracy of maxillary position between conventional model surgery and virtual surgical planning.

    PubMed

    Ritto, F G; Schmitt, A R M; Pimentel, T; Canellas, J V; Medeiros, P J

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether virtual surgical planning (VSP) is an accurate method for positioning the maxilla when compared to conventional articulator model surgery (CMS), through the superimposition of computed tomography (CT) images. This retrospective study included the records of 30 adult patients submitted to bimaxillary orthognathic surgery. Two groups were created according to the treatment planning performed: CMS and VSP. The treatment planning protocol was the same for all patients. Pre- and postoperative CT images were superimposed and the linear distances between upper jaw reference points were measured. Measurements were then compared to the treatment planning, and the difference in accuracy between CMS and VSP was determined using the t-test for independent samples. The success criterion adopted was a mean linear difference of <2mm. The mean linear difference between planned and obtained movements for CMS was 1.27±1.05mm, and for VSP was 1.20±1.08mm. With CMS, 80% of overlapping reference points had a difference of <2mm, while for VSP this value was 83.6%. There was no statistically significant difference between the two techniques regarding accuracy (P>0.05). Copyright © 2017 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Artificial neural networks: Predicting head CT findings in elderly patients presenting with minor head injury after a fall.

    PubMed

    Dusenberry, Michael W; Brown, Charles K; Brewer, Kori L

    2017-02-01

    To construct an artificial neural network (ANN) model that can predict the presence of acute CT findings with both high sensitivity and high specificity when applied to the population of patients≥age 65years who have incurred minor head injury after a fall. An ANN was created in the Python programming language using a population of 514 patients ≥ age 65 years presenting to the ED with minor head injury after a fall. The patient dataset was divided into three parts: 60% for "training", 20% for "cross validation", and 20% for "testing". Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy were determined by comparing the model's predictions to the actual correct answers for each patient. On the "cross validation" data, the model attained a sensitivity ("recall") of 100.00%, specificity of 78.95%, PPV ("precision") of 78.95%, NPV of 100.00%, and accuracy of 88.24% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs. On the "test" data, the model attained a sensitivity of 97.78%, specificity of 89.47%, PPV of 88.00%, NPV of 98.08%, and accuracy of 93.14% in detecting the presence of positive head CTs. ANNs show great potential for predicting CT findings in the population of patients ≥ 65 years of age presenting with minor head injury after a fall. As a good first step, the ANN showed comparable sensitivity, predictive values, and accuracy, with a much higher specificity than the existing decision rules in clinical usage for predicting head CTs with acute intracranial findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Comparison of the accuracy of radiography and ultrasonography for detection of articular lesions in horses.

    PubMed

    Hinz, Antje; Fischer, Andrew T

    2011-10-01

    To compare the accuracy of ultrasonographic and radiographic examination for evaluation of articular lesions in horses. Cross-sectional study. Horses (n = 137) with articular lesions. Radiographic and ultrasonographic examinations of the affected joint(s) were performed before diagnostic or therapeutic arthroscopic surgery. Findings were recorded and compared to lesions identified during arthroscopy. In 254 joints, 432 lesions were identified by arthroscopy. The overall accuracy was 82.9% for ultrasonography and 62.2% for radiography (P < .0001) with a sensitivity of 91.4% for ultrasonography and 66.7% for radiography (P < .0001). The difference in specificity was not statistically significant (P = .2628). The negative predictive value for ultrasonography was 31.5% and 13.2% for radiography (P = .0022), the difference for the positive predictive value was not statistically significant (P = .3898). The accuracy for ultrasonography and radiography for left versus right joints was equal and corresponded with the overall results. Ultrasonographic evaluation of articular lesions was more accurate than radiographic evaluation. © Copyright 2011 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons.

  2. Link prediction with node clustering coefficient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Zhihao; Lin, Youfang; Wang, Jing; Gregory, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Predicting missing links in incomplete complex networks efficiently and accurately is still a challenging problem. The recently proposed Cannistrai-Alanis-Ravai (CAR) index shows the power of local link/triangle information in improving link-prediction accuracy. Inspired by the idea of employing local link/triangle information, we propose a new similarity index with more local structure information. In our method, local link/triangle structure information can be conveyed by clustering coefficient of common-neighbors directly. The reason why clustering coefficient has good effectiveness in estimating the contribution of a common-neighbor is that it employs links existing between neighbors of a common-neighbor and these links have the same structural position with the candidate link to this common-neighbor. In our experiments, three estimators: precision, AUP and AUC are used to evaluate the accuracy of link prediction algorithms. Experimental results on ten tested networks drawn from various fields show that our new index is more effective in predicting missing links than CAR index, especially for networks with low correlation between number of common-neighbors and number of links between common-neighbors.

  3. Accuracy of three-dimensional facial soft tissue simulation in post-traumatic zygoma reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Li, P; Zhou, Z W; Ren, J Y; Zhang, Y; Tian, W D; Tang, W

    2016-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of novel software-CMF-preCADS-for the prediction of soft tissue changes following repositioning surgery for zygomatic fractures. Twenty patients who had sustained an isolated zygomatic fracture accompanied by facial deformity and who were treated with repositioning surgery participated in this study. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans and three-dimensional (3D) stereophotographs were acquired preoperatively and postoperatively. The 3D skeletal model from the preoperative CBCT data was matched with the postoperative one, and the fractured zygomatic fragments were segmented and aligned to the postoperative position for prediction. Then, the predicted model was matched with the postoperative 3D stereophotograph for quantification of the simulation error. The mean absolute error in the zygomatic soft tissue region between the predicted model and the real one was 1.42±1.56mm for all cases. The accuracy of the prediction (mean absolute error ≤2mm) was 87%. In the subjective assessment it was found that the majority of evaluators considered the predicted model and the postoperative model to be 'very similar'. CMF-preCADS software can provide a realistic, accurate prediction of the facial soft tissue appearance after repositioning surgery for zygomatic fractures. The reliability of this software for other types of repositioning surgery for maxillofacial fractures should be validated in the future. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Guo, Rui; Ma, Lu; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-12-01

    Hematoma expansion is independently associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Blend sign is a simple predictor for hematoma expansion on non-contrast computed tomography. However, its accuracy for predicting hematoma expansion is inconsistent in previous studies. This meta-analysis is aimed to systematically assess the performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was conducted. Original studies about predictive accuracy of blend sign for hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve was constructed. Publication bias was assessed by Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. A total of 5 studies with 2248 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.28, 0.92, 3.4 and 0.78, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.85. No significant publication bias was found. This meta-analysis demonstrates that blend sign is a useful predictor with high specificity for hematoma expansion in ICH. Further studies with larger sample size are still necessary to verify the accuracy of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. THE PANC 3 SCORE PREDICTING SEVERITY OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS

    PubMed Central

    BEDUSCHI, Murilo Gamba; MELLO, André Luiz Parizi; VON-MÜHLEN, Bruno; FRANZON, Orli

    2016-01-01

    Background : About 20% of cases of acute pancreatitis progress to a severe form, leading to high mortality rates. Several studies suggested methods to identify patients that will progress more severely. However, most studies present problems when used on daily practice. Objective : To assess the efficacy of the PANC 3 score to predict acute pancreatitis severity and its relation to clinical outcome. Methods : Acute pancreatitis patients were assessed as to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), etiology of pancreatitis, intensive care need, length of stay, length of stay in intensive care unit and mortality. The PANC 3 score was determined within the first 24 hours after diagnosis and compared to acute pancreatitis grade of the Revised Atlanta classification. Results : Out of 64 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, 58 met the inclusion criteria. The PANC 3 score was positive in five cases (8.6%), pancreatitis progressed to a severe form in 10 cases (17.2%) and five patients (8.6%) died. Patients with a positive score and severe pancreatitis required intensive care more often, and stayed for a longer period in intensive care units. The PANC 3 score showed sensitivity of 50%, specificity of 100%, accuracy of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 100% and negative predictive value of 90.6% in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. Conclusion : The PANC 3 score is useful to assess acute pancreatitis because it is easy and quick to use, has high specificity, high accuracy and high predictive value in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. PMID:27120730

  6. Evaluation of an ensemble of genetic models for prediction of a quantitative trait.

    PubMed

    Milton, Jacqueline N; Steinberg, Martin H; Sebastiani, Paola

    2014-01-01

    Many genetic markers have been shown to be associated with common quantitative traits in genome-wide association studies. Typically these associated genetic markers have small to modest effect sizes and individually they explain only a small amount of the variability of the phenotype. In order to build a genetic prediction model without fitting a multiple linear regression model with possibly hundreds of genetic markers as predictors, researchers often summarize the joint effect of risk alleles into a genetic score that is used as a covariate in the genetic prediction model. However, the prediction accuracy can be highly variable and selecting the optimal number of markers to be included in the genetic score is challenging. In this manuscript we present a strategy to build an ensemble of genetic prediction models from data and we show that the ensemble-based method makes the challenge of choosing the number of genetic markers more amenable. Using simulated data with varying heritability and number of genetic markers, we compare the predictive accuracy and inclusion of true positive and false positive markers of a single genetic prediction model and our proposed ensemble method. The results show that the ensemble of genetic models tends to include a larger number of genetic variants than a single genetic model and it is more likely to include all of the true genetic markers. This increased sensitivity is obtained at the price of a lower specificity that appears to minimally affect the predictive accuracy of the ensemble.

  7. Integrated Computational Solution for Predicting Skin Sensitization Potential of Molecules

    PubMed Central

    Desai, Aarti; Singh, Vivek K.; Jere, Abhay

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Skin sensitization forms a major toxicological endpoint for dermatology and cosmetic products. Recent ban on animal testing for cosmetics demands for alternative methods. We developed an integrated computational solution (SkinSense) that offers a robust solution and addresses the limitations of existing computational tools i.e. high false positive rate and/or limited coverage. Results The key components of our solution include: QSAR models selected from a combinatorial set, similarity information and literature-derived sub-structure patterns of known skin protein reactive groups. Its prediction performance on a challenge set of molecules showed accuracy = 75.32%, CCR = 74.36%, sensitivity = 70.00% and specificity = 78.72%, which is better than several existing tools including VEGA (accuracy = 45.00% and CCR = 54.17% with ‘High’ reliability scoring), DEREK (accuracy = 72.73% and CCR = 71.44%) and TOPKAT (accuracy = 60.00% and CCR = 61.67%). Although, TIMES-SS showed higher predictive power (accuracy = 90.00% and CCR = 92.86%), the coverage was very low (only 10 out of 77 molecules were predicted reliably). Conclusions Owing to improved prediction performance and coverage, our solution can serve as a useful expert system towards Integrated Approaches to Testing and Assessment for skin sensitization. It would be invaluable to cosmetic/ dermatology industry for pre-screening their molecules, and reducing time, cost and animal testing. PMID:27271321

  8. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface.

    PubMed

    Li, Bin; Kihara, Daisuke

    2012-01-10

    Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm), is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  9. Evaluation of Automatic Vehicle Location accuracy

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-01-01

    This study assesses the accuracy of the Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) data provided for the buses of the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. In a sample of eighty-nine bus trips two kinds of accuracy...

  10. Predicting Positive Education Outcomes for Emerging Adults in Mental Health Systems of Care.

    PubMed

    Brennan, Eileen M; Nygren, Peggy; Stephens, Robert L; Croskey, Adrienne

    2016-10-01

    Emerging adults who receive services based on positive youth development models have shown an ability to shape their own life course to achieve positive goals. This paper reports secondary data analysis from the Longitudinal Child and Family Outcome Study including 248 culturally diverse youth ages 17 through 22 receiving mental health services in systems of care. After 12 months of services, school performance was positively related to youth ratings of school functioning and service participation and satisfaction. Regression analysis revealed ratings of young peoples' perceptions of school functioning, and their experience in services added to the significant prediction of satisfactory school performance, even controlling for sex and attendance. Finally, in addition to expected predictors, participation in planning their own services significantly predicted enrollment in higher education for those who finished high school. Findings suggest that programs and practices based on positive youth development approaches can improve educational outcomes for emerging adults.

  11. Accuracy Performance Evaluation of Beidou Navigation Satellite System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, W.; Hu, Y. N.

    2017-03-01

    Accuracy is one of the key elements of the regional Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) performance standard. In this paper, we review the definition specification and evaluation standard of the BDS accuracy. Current accuracy of the regional BDS is analyzed through the ground measurements and compared with GPS in terms of dilution of precision (DOP), signal-in-space user range error (SIS URE), and positioning accuracy. The Positioning DOP (PDOP) map of BDS around Chinese mainland is compared with that of GPS. The GPS PDOP is between 1.0-2.0 and does not vary with the user latitude and longitude, while the BDS PDOP varies between 1.5-5.0, and increases as the user latitude increases, and as the user longitude apart from 118°. The accuracies of the broadcast orbits of BDS are assessed by taking the precise orbits from International GNSS Service (IGS) as the reference, and by making satellite laser ranging (SLR) residuals. The radial errors of the BDS inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) and medium orbit (MEO) satellites broadcast orbits are at the 0.5m level, which are larger than those of GPS satellites at the 0.2m level. The SLR residuals of geosynchronous orbit (GEO) satellites are 65.0cm, which are larger than those of IGSO, and MEO satellites, at the 50.0cm level. The accuracy of broadcast clock offset parameters of BDS is computed by taking the clock measurements of Two-way Satellite Radio Time Frequency Transfer as the reference. Affected by the age of broadcast clock parameters, the error of the broadcast clock offset parameters of the MEO satellites is the largest, at the 0.80m level. Finally, measurements of the multi-GNSS (MGEX) receivers are used for positioning accuracy assessment of BDS and GPS. It is concluded that the positioning accuracy of regional BDS is better than 10m at the horizontal component and the vertical component. The combined positioning accuracy of both systems is better than one specific system.

  12. The Power Within: The Experimental Manipulation of Power Interacts with Trait BDD Symptoms to Predict Interoceptive Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Kunstman, Jonathan W.; Clerkin, Elise M.; Palmer, Kateyln; Peters, M. Taylar; Dodd, Dorian R.; Smith, April R.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives This study tested whether relatively low levels of interoceptive accuracy (IAcc) are associated with body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) symptoms. Additionally, given research indicating that power attunes individuals to their internal states, we sought to determine if state interoceptive accuracy could be improved through an experimental manipulation of power. Method Undergraduate women (N = 101) completed a baseline measure of interoceptive accuracy and then were randomized to a power or control condition. Participants were primed with power or a neutral control topic and then completed a post-manipulation measure of state IAcc. Trait BDD symptoms were assessed with a self-report measure. Results Controlling for baseline IAcc, within the control condition, there was a significant inverse relationship between trait BDD symptoms and interoceptive accuracy. Continuing to control for baseline IAcc, within the power condition, there was not a significant relationship between trait BDD symptoms and IAcc, suggesting that power may have attenuated this relationship. At high levels of BDD symptomology, there was also a significant simple effect of experimental condition, such that participants in the power (vs. control) condition had better interoceptive accuracy. These results provide initial evidence that power may positively impact interoceptive accuracy among those with high levels of BDD symptoms. Limitations This cross-sectional study utilized a demographically homogenous sample of women that reflected a broad range of symptoms; thus, although there were a number of participants reporting elevated BDD symptoms, these findings might not generalize to other populations or clinical samples. Conclusions . This study provides the first direct test of the relationship between trait BDD symptoms and IAcc, and provides preliminary evidence that among those with severe BDD symptoms, power may help connect individuals with their internal states. Future

  13. The power within: The experimental manipulation of power interacts with trait BDD symptoms to predict interoceptive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Kunstman, Jonathan W; Clerkin, Elise M; Palmer, Kateyln; Peters, M Taylar; Dodd, Dorian R; Smith, April R

    2016-03-01

    This study tested whether relatively low levels of interoceptive accuracy (IAcc) are associated with body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) symptoms. Additionally, given research indicating that power attunes individuals to their internal states, we sought to determine if state interoceptive accuracy could be improved through an experimental manipulation of power.. Undergraduate women (N = 101) completed a baseline measure of interoceptive accuracy and then were randomized to a power or control condition. Participants were primed with power or a neutral control topic and then completed a post-manipulation measure of state IAcc. Trait BDD symptoms were assessed with a self-report measure. Controlling for baseline IAcc, within the control condition, there was a significant inverse relationship between trait BDD symptoms and interoceptive accuracy. Continuing to control for baseline IAcc, within the power condition, there was not a significant relationship between trait BDD symptoms and IAcc, suggesting that power may have attenuated this relationship. At high levels of BDD symptomology, there was also a significant simple effect of experimental condition, such that participants in the power (vs. control) condition had better interoceptive accuracy. These results provide initial evidence that power may positively impact interoceptive accuracy among those with high levels of BDD symptoms.. This cross-sectional study utilized a demographically homogenous sample of women that reflected a broad range of symptoms; thus, although there were a number of participants reporting elevated BDD symptoms, these findings might not generalize to other populations or clinical samples. This study provides the first direct test of the relationship between trait BDD symptoms and IAcc, and provides preliminary evidence that among those with severe BDD symptoms, power may help connect individuals with their internal states. Future research testing the mechanisms linking BDD symptoms with IAcc, as

  14. Accuracy of Inferior Vena Cava Ultrasound for Predicting Dehydration in Children with Acute Diarrhea in Resource-Limited Settings.

    PubMed

    Modi, Payal; Glavis-Bloom, Justin; Nasrin, Sabiha; Guy, Allysia; Chowa, Erika P; Dvor, Nathan; Dworkis, Daniel A; Oh, Michael; Silvestri, David M; Strasberg, Stephen; Rege, Soham; Noble, Vicki E; Alam, Nur H; Levine, Adam C

    2016-01-01

    Although dehydration from diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under five, existing methods of assessing dehydration status in children have limited accuracy. To assess the accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound measurement of the aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration in children. A prospective cohort study of children under five years with acute diarrhea was conducted in the rehydration unit of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b). Ultrasound measurements of aorta-to-IVC ratio and dehydrated weight were obtained on patient arrival. Percent weight change was monitored during rehydration to classify children as having "some dehydration" with weight change 3-9% or "severe dehydration" with weight change > 9%. Logistic regression analysis and Receiver-Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration severity. 850 children were enrolled, of which 771 were included in the final analysis. Aorta to IVC ratio was a significant predictor of the percent dehydration in children with acute diarrhea, with each 1-point increase in the aorta to IVC ratio predicting a 1.1% increase in the percent dehydration of the child. However, the area under the ROC curve (0.60), sensitivity (67%), and specificity (49%), for predicting severe dehydration were all poor. Point-of-care ultrasound of the aorta-to-IVC ratio was statistically associated with volume status, but was not accurate enough to be used as an independent screening tool for dehydration in children under five years presenting with acute diarrhea in a resource-limited setting.

  15. Accuracy of Inferior Vena Cava Ultrasound for Predicting Dehydration in Children with Acute Diarrhea in Resource-Limited Settings

    PubMed Central

    Modi, Payal; Glavis-Bloom, Justin; Nasrin, Sabiha; Guy, Allysia; Rege, Soham; Noble, Vicki E.; Alam, Nur H.; Levine, Adam C.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Although dehydration from diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under five, existing methods of assessing dehydration status in children have limited accuracy. Objective To assess the accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound measurement of the aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration in children. Methods A prospective cohort study of children under five years with acute diarrhea was conducted in the rehydration unit of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b). Ultrasound measurements of aorta-to-IVC ratio and dehydrated weight were obtained on patient arrival. Percent weight change was monitored during rehydration to classify children as having “some dehydration” with weight change 3–9% or “severe dehydration” with weight change > 9%. Logistic regression analysis and Receiver-Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration severity. Results 850 children were enrolled, of which 771 were included in the final analysis. Aorta to IVC ratio was a significant predictor of the percent dehydration in children with acute diarrhea, with each 1-point increase in the aorta to IVC ratio predicting a 1.1% increase in the percent dehydration of the child. However, the area under the ROC curve (0.60), sensitivity (67%), and specificity (49%), for predicting severe dehydration were all poor. Conclusions Point-of-care ultrasound of the aorta-to-IVC ratio was statistically associated with volume status, but was not accurate enough to be used as an independent screening tool for dehydration in children under five years presenting with acute diarrhea in a resource-limited setting. PMID:26766306

  16. FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin's Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value.

    PubMed

    Hussien, Amr Elsayed M; Furth, Christian; Schönberger, Stefan; Hundsdoerfer, Patrick; Steffen, Ingo G; Amthauer, Holger; Müller, Hans-Wilhelm; Hautzel, Hubertus

    2015-01-28

    In pediatric Hodgkin's lymphoma (pHL) early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18)F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV) but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV). Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV), PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG); One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54) of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in %) were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC)-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0%) but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV.

  17. Efficient pairwise RNA structure prediction using probabilistic alignment constraints in Dynalign

    PubMed Central

    2007-01-01

    Background Joint alignment and secondary structure prediction of two RNA sequences can significantly improve the accuracy of the structural predictions. Methods addressing this problem, however, are forced to employ constraints that reduce computation by restricting the alignments and/or structures (i.e. folds) that are permissible. In this paper, a new methodology is presented for the purpose of establishing alignment constraints based on nucleotide alignment and insertion posterior probabilities. Using a hidden Markov model, posterior probabilities of alignment and insertion are computed for all possible pairings of nucleotide positions from the two sequences. These alignment and insertion posterior probabilities are additively combined to obtain probabilities of co-incidence for nucleotide position pairs. A suitable alignment constraint is obtained by thresholding the co-incidence probabilities. The constraint is integrated with Dynalign, a free energy minimization algorithm for joint alignment and secondary structure prediction. The resulting method is benchmarked against the previous version of Dynalign and against other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction. Results The proposed technique eliminates manual parameter selection in Dynalign and provides significant computational time savings in comparison to prior constraints in Dynalign while simultaneously providing a small improvement in the structural prediction accuracy. Savings are also realized in memory. In experiments over a 5S RNA dataset with average sequence length of approximately 120 nucleotides, the method reduces computation by a factor of 2. The method performs favorably in comparison to other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction: yielding better accuracy, on average, and requiring significantly lesser computational resources. Conclusion Probabilistic analysis can be utilized in order to automate the determination of alignment constraints for pairwise RNA structure prediction

  18. Diagnostic accuracy of fractional exhaled nitric oxide measurement in predicting cough-variant asthma and eosinophilic bronchitis in adults with chronic cough: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Song, Woo-Jung; Kim, Hyun Jung; Shim, Ji-Su; Won, Ha-Kyeong; Kang, Sung-Yoon; Sohn, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Byung-Keun; Jo, Eun-Jung; Kim, Min-Hye; Kim, Sang-Heon; Park, Heung-Woo; Kim, Sun-Sin; Chang, Yoon-Seok; Morice, Alyn H; Lee, Byung-Jae; Cho, Sang-Heon

    2017-09-01

    Individual studies have suggested the utility of fractional exhaled nitric oxide (Feno) measurement in detecting cough-variant asthma (CVA) and eosinophilic bronchitis (EB) in patients with chronic cough. We sought to obtain summary estimates of diagnostic test accuracy of Feno measurement in predicting CVA, EB, or both in adults with chronic cough. Electronic databases were searched for studies published until January 2016, without language restriction. Cross-sectional studies that reported the diagnostic accuracy of Feno measurement for detecting CVA or EB were included. Risk of bias was assessed with Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2. Random effects meta-analyses were performed to obtain summary estimates of the diagnostic accuracy of Feno measurement. A total of 15 studies involving 2187 adults with chronic cough were identified. Feno measurement had a moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting CVA in patients with chronic cough, showing the summary area under the curve to be 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89). Specificity was higher and more consistent than sensitivity (0.85 [95% CI, 0.81-0.88] and 0.72 [95% CI, 0.61-0.81], respectively). However, in the nonasthmatic population with chronic cough, the diagnostic accuracy to predict EB was found to be relatively lower (summary area under the curve, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.77-0.84]), and specificity was inconsistent. The present meta-analyses indicated the diagnostic potential of Feno measurement as a rule-in test for detecting CVA in adult patients with chronic cough. However, Feno measurement may not be useful to predict EB in nonasthmatic subjects with chronic cough. These findings warrant further studies to validate the roles of Feno measurement in clinical practice of patients with chronic cough. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Reliability and accuracy of four dental shade-matching devices.

    PubMed

    Kim-Pusateri, Seungyee; Brewer, Jane D; Davis, Elaine L; Wee, Alvin G

    2009-03-01

    There are several electronic shade-matching instruments available for clinical use, but the reliability and accuracy of these instruments have not been thoroughly investigated. The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the reliability and accuracy of 4 dental shade-matching instruments in a standardized environment. Four shade-matching devices were tested: SpectroShade, ShadeVision, VITA Easyshade, and ShadeScan. Color measurements were made of 3 commercial shade guides (Vitapan Classical, Vitapan 3D-Master, and Chromascop). Shade tabs were placed in the middle of a gingival matrix (Shofu GUMY) with shade tabs of the same nominal shade from additional shade guides placed on both sides. Measurements were made of the central region of the shade tab positioned inside a black box. For the reliability assessment, each shade tab from each of the 3 shade guide types was measured 10 times. For the accuracy assessment, each shade tab from 10 guides of each of the 3 types evaluated was measured once. Differences in reliability and accuracy were evaluated using the Standard Normal z test (2 sided) (alpha=.05) with Bonferroni correction. Reliability of devices was as follows: ShadeVision, 99.0%; SpectroShade, 96.9%; VITA Easyshade, 96.4%; and ShadeScan, 87.4%. A significant difference in reliability was found between ShadeVision and ShadeScan (P=.008). All other comparisons showed similar reliability. Accuracy of devices was as follows: VITA Easyshade, 92.6%; ShadeVision, 84.8%; SpectroShade, 80.2%; and ShadeScan, 66.8%. Significant differences in accuracy were found between all device pairs (P<.001) for all comparisons except for SpectroShade versus ShadeVision (P=.033). Most devices had similar high reliability (over 96%), indicating predictable shade values from repeated measurements. However, there was more variability in accuracy among devices (67-93%), and differences in accuracy were seen with most device comparisons.

  20. The predictive accuracy of PREDICT: a personalized decision-making tool for Southeast Asian women with breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Wong, Hoong-Seam; Subramaniam, Shridevi; Alias, Zarifah; Taib, Nur Aishah; Ho, Gwo-Fuang; Ng, Char-Hong; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala

    2015-02-01

    Web-based prognostication tools may provide a simple and economically feasible option to aid prognostication and selection of chemotherapy in early breast cancers. We validated PREDICT, a free online breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool, in a resource-limited setting. All 1480 patients who underwent complete surgical treatment for stages I to III breast cancer from 1998 to 2006 were identified from the prospective breast cancer registry of University Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Calibration was evaluated by comparing the model-predicted overall survival (OS) with patients' actual OS. Model discrimination was tested using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Median age at diagnosis was 50 years. The median tumor size at presentation was 3 cm and 54% of patients had lymph node-negative disease. About 55% of women had estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. Overall, the model-predicted 5 and 10-year OS was 86.3% and 77.5%, respectively, whereas the observed 5 and 10-year OS was 87.6% (difference: -1.3%) and 74.2% (difference: 3.3%), respectively; P values for goodness-of-fit test were 0.18 and 0.12, respectively. The program was accurate in most subgroups of patients, but significantly overestimated survival in patients aged <40 years, and in those receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PREDICT performed well in terms of discrimination; areas under ROC curve were 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.81) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.78) for 5 and 10-year OS, respectively. Based on its accurate performance in this study, PREDICT may be clinically useful in prognosticating women with breast cancer and personalizing breast cancer treatment in resource-limited settings.

  1. Role of specimen US for predicting resection margin status in breast conserving therapy.

    PubMed

    Moschetta, M; Telegrafo, M; Introna, T; Coi, L; Rella, L; Ranieri, V; Cirili, A; Stabile Ianora, A A; Angelelli, G

    2015-01-01

    To assess the diagnostic accuracy of specimen ultrasound (US) for predicting resection margin status in women undergoing breast conserving therapy for US-detected cancer, having the histological findings as the reference standard. A total of 132 consecutive patients (age range, 34-87 years; mean, 51 years) underwent breast-conserving surgery for US-detected invasive breast cancer. All surgical specimens underwent US examination. The presence of lesion within the specimen and its distance from the specimen margins were assessed considering a threshold distance between the lesion and specimen margins of 10 mm. US findings were then compared with the pathological ones and specimen US. Sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for predicting histological margin status were evaluated, having the histological findings as the reference standard. The histological examination detected invasive ductal carcinoma in 96/132 (73%) cases, invasive lobular carcinoma in 32/132 (24%), mucinous carcinoma in 4/132 (3%). The pathological margin analysis revealed 96/132 (73%) negative margins and 36 (27%) close/positive margins. US examination detected all 132 breast lesions within the surgical specimens. 110 (83%) negative margins and 22 (17%) positive margins were found on US. Sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, PPV and NPV of 44%, 94%, 80%, 73% and 82%, respectively, were found for specimen US. Specimen US represents a time and cost saving imaging tool for evaluating the presence of US detected-breast lesion within surgical specimen and for predicting the histological margin status.

  2. Accuracy of Cup Positioning With the Computed Tomography-Based Two-dimensional to Three-Dimensional Matched Navigation System: A Prospective, Randomized Controlled Study.

    PubMed

    Yamada, Kazuki; Endo, Hirosuke; Tetsunaga, Tomonori; Miyake, Takamasa; Sanki, Tomoaki; Ozaki, Toshifumi

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of various navigation systems used for total hip arthroplasty has been described, but no publications reported the accuracy of cup orientation in computed tomography (CT)-based 2D-3D (two-dimensional to three-dimensional) matched navigation. In a prospective, randomized controlled study, 80 hips including 44 with developmental dysplasia of the hips were divided into a CT-based 2D-3D matched navigation group (2D-3D group) and a paired-point matched navigation group (PPM group). The accuracy of cup orientation (absolute difference between the intraoperative record and the postoperative measurement) was compared between groups. Additionally, multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate patient factors affecting the accuracy of cup orientation in each navigation. The accuracy of cup inclination was 2.5° ± 2.2° in the 2D-3D group and 4.6° ± 3.3° in the PPM group (P = .0016). The accuracy of cup anteversion was 2.3° ± 1.7° in the 2D-3D group and 4.4° ± 3.3° in the PPM group (P = .0009). In the PPM group, the presence of roof osteophytes decreased the accuracy of cup inclination (odds ratio 8.27, P = .0140) and the absolute value of pelvic tilt had a negative influence on the accuracy of cup anteversion (odds ratio 1.27, P = .0222). In the 2D-3D group, patient factors had no effect on the accuracy of cup orientation. The accuracy of cup positioning in CT-based 2D-3D matched navigation was better than in paired-point matched navigation, and was not affected by patient factors. It is a useful system for even severely deformed pelvises such as developmental dysplasia of the hips. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Diagnostic accuracy of fluorescence microlymphography for detecting limb lymphedema.

    PubMed

    Keo, H H; Husmann, M; Groechenig, E; Willenberg, T; Gretener, S B

    2015-04-01

    Fluorescence microlymphography (FML) is a minimally invasive technique for visualization of the cutaneous lymphatic network. The aim of the study was to assess the accuracy and safety of FML in patients with unilateral lymphedema. This was a cross sectional study. Patients with unilateral leg swelling were assessed and compared with the unaffected contralateral limb. FML was performed in all index legs and the contralateral leg by injecting 0.1 mL of fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC)-labeled dextran intradermally in both limbs at the same level. The most prominent swelling of the affected limb was the anatomical reference. The spread of the dye in the lymphatic capillaries of the skin was measured in all dimensions by epiluminator intravital microscopy and the maximum dye spread value 10 min after injection was used for statistical analysis. The contralateral leg served as control. Test accuracy and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess threshold values that best predict lymphedema. Between March 2008 and February 2014 seventy patients with unilateral chronic leg swelling were clinically diagnosed with lymphedema. The median age was 45 (IQR 27-56) years. Of those, 46 (65.7%) were female and 71.4% had primary and 28.6% secondary lymphedema. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio, and positive and negative predictive value were 94.3%, 78.6%, 4.40, 0.07, 81.5%, and 93.2% for the 12 mm cut off level and 91.4%, 85.7%, 6.40, 0.10, 86.5%, and 90.9% for the 14 mm cut off level, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95). No major adverse events were observed. FML is an almost atraumatic and safe technique for detecting lymphedema in patients with leg swelling. In this series the greatest accuracy was observed at a cut off level of ≥14 mm maximum spread. Copyright © 2015 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Preschool children's vision screening in New Zealand: a retrospective evaluation of referral accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Langeslag-Smith, Miriam A; Vandal, Alain C; Briane, Vincent; Thompson, Benjamin; Anstice, Nicola S

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To assess the accuracy of preschool vision screening in a large, ethnically diverse, urban population in South Auckland, New Zealand. Design Retrospective longitudinal study. Methods B4 School Check vision screening records (n=5572) were compared with hospital eye department data for children referred from screening due to impaired acuity in one or both eyes who attended a referral appointment (n=556). False positive screens were identified by comparing screening data from the eyes that failed screening with hospital data. Estimation of false negative screening rates relied on data from eyes that passed screening. Data were analysed using logistic regression modelling accounting for the high correlation between results for the two eyes of each child. Primary outcome measure Positive predictive value of the preschool vision screening programme. Results Screening produced high numbers of false positive referrals, resulting in poor positive predictive value (PPV=31%, 95% CI 26% to 38%). High estimated negative predictive value (NPV=92%, 95% CI 88% to 95%) suggested most children with a vision disorder were identified at screening. Relaxing the referral criteria for acuity from worse than 6/9 to worse than 6/12 improved PPV without adversely affecting NPV. Conclusions The B4 School Check generated numerous false positive referrals and consequently had a low PPV. There is scope for reducing costs by altering the visual acuity criterion for referral. PMID:26614622

  5. The accuracy of transvaginal sonography to detect endometriosis cyst

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diantika, M.; Gunardi, E. R.

    2017-08-01

    Endometriosis is common in women of reproductive age. Late diagnosis is still the main concern. Currently, noninvasive diagnostic testing, such as transvaginal sonography, is recommended. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the accuracy of transvaginal sonography in diagnosing endometrial cysts in patients in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. This diagnostic study was carried out at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital between January 2014 and June 2015. Outpatients suspected have an endometrial cyst based on the patient history and a clinical examination was recruited. The patients were then evaluated using transvaginal sonography by an experienced sonologist, according to the research protocol. The gold standard test was a histological finding in the removed surgical mass. Ninety-eight patients were analyzed. An endometrial cyst was confirmed by histology in 85 patients (87%). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of transvaginal sonography was established to be 85% (a range of 71-99%), 93%, 77%, 96%, and 63%, respectively. A significantly higher area under the curve was identified using transvaginal sonogpraphy compared to that achieved with a clinical examination alone (85% versus 79%). Transvaginal sonography was useful in diagnosing endometrial cysts in outpatients and is recommended in daily clinical practice.

  6. Assessment of CTAS ETA prediction capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolender, Michael A.

    1994-11-01

    This report summarizes the work done to date in assessing the trajectory fidelity and estimated time of arrival (ETA) prediction capability of the NASA Ames Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) software. The CTAS software suite is a series of computer programs designed to aid air traffic controllers in their tasks of safely scheduling the landing sequence of approaching aircraft. in particular, this report concerns the accuracy of the available measurements (e.g., position, altitude, etc.) that are input to the software, as well as the accuracy of the final data that is made available to the air traffic controllers.

  7. High Accuracy Liquid Propellant Slosh Predictions Using an Integrated CFD and Controls Analysis Interface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsell, Brandon; Griffin, David; Schallhorn, Dr. Paul; Roth, Jacob

    2012-01-01

    Coupling computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with a controls analysis tool elegantly allows for high accuracy predictions of the interaction between sloshing liquid propellants and th e control system of a launch vehicle. Instead of relying on mechanical analogs which are not valid during aU stages of flight, this method allows for a direct link between the vehicle dynamic environments calculated by the solver in the controls analysis tool to the fluid flow equations solved by the CFD code. This paper describes such a coupling methodology, presents the results of a series of test cases, and compares said results against equivalent results from extensively validated tools. The coupling methodology, described herein, has proven to be highly accurate in a variety of different cases.

  8. Human In Silico Drug Trials Demonstrate Higher Accuracy than Animal Models in Predicting Clinical Pro-Arrhythmic Cardiotoxicity.

    PubMed

    Passini, Elisa; Britton, Oliver J; Lu, Hua Rong; Rohrbacher, Jutta; Hermans, An N; Gallacher, David J; Greig, Robert J H; Bueno-Orovio, Alfonso; Rodriguez, Blanca

    2017-01-01

    Early prediction of cardiotoxicity is critical for drug development. Current animal models raise ethical and translational questions, and have limited accuracy in clinical risk prediction. Human-based computer models constitute a fast, cheap and potentially effective alternative to experimental assays, also facilitating translation to human. Key challenges include consideration of inter-cellular variability in drug responses and integration of computational and experimental methods in safety pharmacology. Our aim is to evaluate the ability of in silico drug trials in populations of human action potential (AP) models to predict clinical risk of drug-induced arrhythmias based on ion channel information, and to compare simulation results against experimental assays commonly used for drug testing. A control population of 1,213 human ventricular AP models in agreement with experimental recordings was constructed. In silico drug trials were performed for 62 reference compounds at multiple concentrations, using pore-block drug models (IC 50 /Hill coefficient). Drug-induced changes in AP biomarkers were quantified, together with occurrence of repolarization/depolarization abnormalities. Simulation results were used to predict clinical risk based on reports of Torsade de Pointes arrhythmias, and further evaluated in a subset of compounds through comparison with electrocardiograms from rabbit wedge preparations and Ca 2+ -transient recordings in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPS-CMs). Drug-induced changes in silico vary in magnitude depending on the specific ionic profile of each model in the population, thus allowing to identify cell sub-populations at higher risk of developing abnormal AP phenotypes. Models with low repolarization reserve (increased Ca 2+ /late Na + currents and Na + /Ca 2+ -exchanger, reduced Na + /K + -pump) are highly vulnerable to drug-induced repolarization abnormalities, while those with reduced inward current density

  9. The accuracy of image-guided navigation for maxillary positioning in bimaxillary surgery.

    PubMed

    Sun, Yi; Luebbers, Heinz-Theo; Agbaje, Jimoh Olubanwo; Lambrichts, Ivo; Politis, Constantinus

    2014-05-01

    The aim of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of image-guided maxillary positioning in sagittal, vertical, and mediolateral direction. Between May 2011 and July 2012, 17 patients (11 males, 6 females) underwent bimaxillary surgery with the use of intraoperative surgical navigation. During Le Fort I osteotomy, the Kolibri navigation system was used to measure movement of the maxilla at the edge of the upper central upper incisor in sagittal (buccal surface), vertical (incisor edge), and mediolateral (dental midline) direction. Six weeks after surgery, a postoperative CBCT scan was taken and registered to the preoperative cone-beam computed tomography scan to identify the actual surgical movement of the maxilla. Student 2-tailed paired t test was used to evaluate differences between the measured result from navigation system and actual surgical movement of the maxilla, which were 0.44 ± 0.35 mm (P = 0.82) in the sagittal, 0.50 ± 0.35 mm (P = 0.85) in the vertical, and 0.56 ± 0.36 mm (P = 0.81) in the mediolateral direction. Our finding demonstrates that intraoperative computer navigation is a promising tool for measuring the surgical change of the maxilla in bimaxillary surgery.

  10. The Ship Movement Trajectory Prediction Algorithm Using Navigational Data Fusion.

    PubMed

    Borkowski, Piotr

    2017-06-20

    It is essential for the marine navigator conducting maneuvers of his ship at sea to know future positions of himself and target ships in a specific time span to effectively solve collision situations. This article presents an algorithm of ship movement trajectory prediction, which, through data fusion, takes into account measurements of the ship's current position from a number of doubled autonomous devices. This increases the reliability and accuracy of prediction. The algorithm has been implemented in NAVDEC, a navigation decision support system and practically used on board ships.

  11. The Ship Movement Trajectory Prediction Algorithm Using Navigational Data Fusion

    PubMed Central

    Borkowski, Piotr

    2017-01-01

    It is essential for the marine navigator conducting maneuvers of his ship at sea to know future positions of himself and target ships in a specific time span to effectively solve collision situations. This article presents an algorithm of ship movement trajectory prediction, which, through data fusion, takes into account measurements of the ship’s current position from a number of doubled autonomous devices. This increases the reliability and accuracy of prediction. The algorithm has been implemented in NAVDEC, a navigation decision support system and practically used on board ships. PMID:28632176

  12. Accuracy of predicted haemoglobin concentration on cardiopulmonary bypass in paediatric cardiac surgery: effect of different formulae for estimating patient blood volume.

    PubMed

    Redlin, Matthias; Boettcher, Wolfgang; Dehmel, Frank; Cho, Mi-Young; Kukucka, Marian; Habazettl, Helmut

    2017-11-01

    When applying a blood-conserving approach in paediatric cardiac surgery with the aim of reducing the transfusion of homologous blood products, the decision to use blood or blood-free priming of the cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) circuit is often based on the predicted haemoglobin concentration (Hb) as derived from the pre-CPB Hb, the prime volume and the estimated blood volume. We assessed the accuracy of this approach and whether it may be improved by using more sophisticated methods of estimating the blood volume. Data from 522 paediatric cardiac surgery patients treated with CPB with blood-free priming in a 2-year period from May 2013 to May 2015 were collected. Inclusion criteria were body weight <15 kg and available Hb data immediately prior to and after the onset of CPB. The Hb on CPB was predicted according to Fick's principle from the pre-CPB Hb, the prime volume and the patient blood volume. Linear regression analyses and Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the accuracy of the Hb prediction. Different methods to estimate the blood volume were assessed and compared. The initial Hb on CPB correlated well with the predicted Hb (R 2 =0.87, p<0.001). A Bland-Altman plot revealed little bias at 0.07 g/dL and an area of agreement from -1.35 to 1.48 g/dL. More sophisticated methods of estimating blood volume from lean body mass did not improve the Hb prediction, but rather increased bias. Hb prediction is reasonably accurate, with the best result obtained with the simplest method of estimating the blood volume at 80 mL/kg body weight. When deciding for or against blood-free priming, caution is necessary when the predicted Hb lies in a range of ± 2 g/dL around the transfusion trigger.

  13. Millimetre Level Accuracy GNSS Positioning with the Blind Adaptive Beamforming Method in Interference Environments.

    PubMed

    Daneshmand, Saeed; Marathe, Thyagaraja; Lachapelle, Gérard

    2016-10-31

    The use of antenna arrays in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications is gaining significant attention due to its superior capability to suppress both narrowband and wideband interference. However, the phase distortions resulting from array processing may limit the applicability of these methods for high precision applications using carrier phase based positioning techniques. This paper studies the phase distortions occurring with the adaptive blind beamforming method in which satellite angle of arrival (AoA) information is not employed in the optimization problem. To cater to non-stationary interference scenarios, the array weights of the adaptive beamformer are continuously updated. The effects of these continuous updates on the tracking parameters of a GNSS receiver are analyzed. The second part of this paper focuses on reducing the phase distortions during the blind beamforming process in order to allow the receiver to perform carrier phase based positioning by applying a constraint on the structure of the array configuration and by compensating the array uncertainties. Limitations of the previous methods are studied and a new method is proposed that keeps the simplicity of the blind beamformer structure and, at the same time, reduces tracking degradations while achieving millimetre level positioning accuracy in interference environments. To verify the applicability of the proposed method and analyze the degradations, array signals corresponding to the GPS L1 band are generated using a combination of hardware and software simulators. Furthermore, the amount of degradation and performance of the proposed method under different conditions are evaluated based on Monte Carlo simulations.

  14. Accuracy and predictability in use of AO three-dimensionally preformed titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital reconstruction: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Scolozzi, Paolo; Momjian, Armen; Heuberger, Joris; Andersen, Elene; Broome, Martin; Terzic, Andrej; Jaques, Bertrand

    2009-07-01

    The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy and predictability of new three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction.We analyzed the preoperative and postoperative clinical and radiologic data of 10 patients with isolated blow-out orbital fractures. Fracture locations were as follows: floor (N = 7; 70%), medial wall (N = 1; 1%), and floor/medial wall (N = 2; 2%). The floor fractures were exposed by a standard transconjunctival approach, whereas a combined transcaruncular transconjunctival approach was used in patients with medial wall fractures. A three-dimensional preformed AO titanium mesh plate (0.4 mm in thickness) was selected according to the size of the defect previously measured on the preoperative computed tomographic (CT) scan examination and fixed at the inferior orbital rim with 1 or 2 screws. The accuracy of plate positioning of the reconstructed orbit was assessed on the postoperative CT scan. Coronal CT scan slices were used to measure bony orbital volume using OsiriX Medical Image software. Reconstructed versus uninjured orbital volume were statistically correlated.Nine patients (90%) had a successful treatment outcome without complications. One patient (10%) developed a mechanical limitation of upward gaze with a resulting handicapping diplopia requiring hardware removal. Postoperative orbital CT scan showed an anatomic three-dimensional placement of the orbital mesh plates in all of the patients. Volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 2.5 cm(3). There was no significant difference in volume between the reconstructed and uninjured orbits.This preliminary study has demonstrated that three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction results in (1) a high rate of success with an acceptable rate of major clinical complications (10%) and (2) an anatomic

  15. An evaluation of the accuracy and precision of methane prediction equations for beef cattle fed high-forage and high-grain diets.

    PubMed

    Escobar-Bahamondes, P; Oba, M; Beauchemin, K A

    2017-01-01

    The study determined the performance of equations to predict enteric methane (CH4) from beef cattle fed forage- and grain-based diets. Many equations are available to predict CH4 from beef cattle and the predictions vary substantially among equations. The aims were to (1) construct a database of CH4 emissions for beef cattle from published literature, and (2) identify the most precise and accurate extant CH4 prediction models for beef cattle fed diets varying in forage content. The database was comprised of treatment means of CH4 production from in vivo beef studies published from 2000 to 2015. Criteria to include data in the database were as follows: animal description, intakes, diet composition and CH4 production. In all, 54 published equations that predict CH4 production from diet composition were evaluated. Precision and accuracy of the equations were evaluated using the concordance correlation coefficient (r c ), root mean square prediction error (RMSPE), model efficiency and analysis of errors. Equations were ranked using a combined index of the various statistical assessments based on principal component analysis. The final database contained 53 studies and 207 treatment means that were divided into two data sets: diets containing ⩾400 g/kg dry matter (DM) forage (n=116) and diets containing ⩽200 g/kg DM forage (n=42). Diets containing between ⩽400 and ⩾200 g/kg DM forage were not included in the analysis because of their limited numbers (n=6). Outliers, treatment means where feed was fed restrictively and diets with CH4 mitigation additives were omitted (n=43). Using the high-forage dataset the best-fit equations were the International Panel on Climate Change Tier 2 method, 3 equations for steers that considered gross energy intake (GEI) and body weight and an equation that considered dry matter intake and starch:neutral detergent fiber with r c ranging from 0.60 to 0.73 and RMSPE from 35.6 to 45.9 g/day. For the high-grain diets, the 5 best

  16. Twenty-four signature genes predict the prognosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma with high accuracy and repeatability

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Jianyong; Tian, Gang; Han, Xu; Zhu, Qiang

    2018-01-01

    Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is the sixth most common type cancer worldwide, with poor prognosis. The present study aimed to identify gene signatures that could classify OSCC and predict prognosis in different stages. A training data set (GSE41613) and two validation data sets (GSE42743 and GSE26549) were acquired from the online Gene Expression Omnibus database. In the training data set, patients were classified based on the tumor-node-metastasis staging system, and subsequently grouped into low stage (L) or high stage (H). Signature genes between L and H stages were selected by disparity index analysis, and classification was performed by the expression of these signature genes. The established classification was compared with the L and H classification, and fivefold cross validation was used to evaluate the stability. Enrichment analysis for the signature genes was implemented by the Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integration Discovery. Two validation data sets were used to determine the precise of classification. Survival analysis was conducted followed each classification using the package ‘survival’ in R software. A set of 24 signature genes was identified based on the classification model with the Fi value of 0.47, which was used to distinguish OSCC samples in two different stages. Overall survival of patients in the H stage was higher than those in the L stage. Signature genes were primarily enriched in ‘ether lipid metabolism’ pathway and biological processes such as ‘positive regulation of adaptive immune response’ and ‘apoptotic cell clearance’. The results provided a novel 24-gene set that may be used as biomarkers to predict OSCC prognosis with high accuracy, which may be used to determine an appropriate treatment program for patients with OSCC in addition to the traditional evaluation index. PMID:29257303

  17. Understanding less than nothing: children's neural response to negative numbers shifts across age and accuracy.

    PubMed

    Gullick, Margaret M; Wolford, George

    2013-01-01

    We examined the brain activity underlying the development of our understanding of negative numbers, which are amounts lacking direct physical counterparts. Children performed a paired comparison task with positive and negative numbers during an fMRI session. As previously shown in adults, both pre-instruction fifth-graders and post-instruction seventh-graders demonstrated typical behavioral and neural distance effects to negative numbers, where response times and parietal and frontal activity increased as comparison distance decreased. We then determined the factors impacting the distance effect in each age group. Behaviorally, the fifth-grader distance effect for negatives was significantly predicted only by positive comparison accuracy, indicating that children who were generally better at working with numbers were better at comparing negatives. In seventh-graders, negative number comparison accuracy significantly predicted their negative number distance effect, indicating that children who were better at working with negative numbers demonstrated a more typical distance effect. Across children, as age increased, the negative number distance effect increased in the bilateral IPS and decreased frontally, indicating a frontoparietal shift consistent with previous numerical development literature. In contrast, as negative comparison task accuracy increased, the parietal distance effect increased in the left IPS and decreased in the right, possibly indicating a change from an approximate understanding of negatives' values to a more exact, precise representation (particularly supported by the left IPS) with increasing expertise. These shifts separately indicate the effects of increasing maturity generally in numeric processing and specifically in negative number understanding.

  18. Diagnostic accuracy of bedside swallow evaluation versus videofluoroscopy to assess dysphagia in individuals with tetraplegia.

    PubMed

    Shem, Kazuko L; Castillo, Kathleen; Wong, Sandra Lynn; Chang, James; Kao, Ming-Chih; Kolakowsky-Hayner, Stephanie A

    2012-04-01

    To assess the accuracy of bedside swallow evaluation (BSE) compared with videofluorosopic swallow study (VFSS) in diagnosing dysphagia in individuals with tetraplegia due to spinal cord injury (SCI). A prospective diagnostic accuracy study according to STAndards for the Reporting of Diagnostic accuracy studies (STARD) criteria. A county hospital with acute inpatient SCI unit. Thirty-nine subjects with SCI and tetraplegia were enrolled. All of the subjects underwent BSE, and 26 subjects completed the VFSS. Individuals with SCI underwent a BSE followed by a VFSS within 72 hours of the BSE. The subjects were diagnosed as having dysphagia if they had positive findings in either BSE or VFSS. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated by using VFSS as the criterion standard. Fifteen subjects (38%) were diagnosed as having dysphagia based on the BSE results. Among the subjects who completed the VFSS, 11 were diagnosed with dysphagia (42%) and 4 were diagnosed with aspiration (10%). Of the 26 subjects who completed both BSE and VFSS, only 1 subject was diagnosed differently compared with BSE (3.8%). Different diet recommendations were made in 4 cases after VFSS versus BSE. Different liquid recommendations were made in 8 cases after VFSS versus BSE. Sensitivity of BSE was 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 71.5%-100%), specificity was 93.3% (95% CI, 68.1%-99.8%). A positive predictive value of BSE was 91.7% (95% CI, 61.5%-100%), and the negative predictive value was 100% (95% CI, 76.8%-100%). Dysphagia is present in approximately 38% of individuals with acute tetraplegia. Because only one of the 21 subjects was diagnosed differently based on VFSS, we believe that BSE is an appropriate screening tool for dysphagia for individuals with cervical SCI. However, VFSS provided additional information on diet and liquid recommendations, so there appears to be an important clinical role for the VFSS. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of

  19. An analysis on combined GPS/COMPASS data quality and its effect on single point positioning accuracy under different observing conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Changsheng; Gao, Yang; Pan, Lin; Dai, Wujiao

    2014-09-01

    With the rapid development of the COMPASS system, it is currently capable of providing regional navigation services. In order to test its data quality and performance for single point positioning (SPP), experiments have been conducted under different observing conditions including open sky, under trees, nearby a glass wall, nearby a large area of water, under high-voltage lines and under a signal transmitting tower. To assess the COMPASS data quality, the code multipath, cycle slip occurrence rate and data availability were analyzed and compared to GPS data. The datasets obtained from the experiments have also been utilized to perform combined GPS/COMPASS SPP on an epoch-by-epoch basis using unsmoothed single-frequency code observations. The investigation on the regional navigation performance aims at low-accuracy applications and all tests are made in Changsha, China, using the “SOUTH S82-C” GPS/COMPASS receivers. The results show that adding COMPASS observations can significantly improve the positioning accuracy of single-frequency GPS-only SPP in environments with limited satellite visibility. Since the COMPASS system is still in an initial operational stage, all results are obtained based on a fairly limited amount of data.

  20. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values: diagnosing purple mange.

    PubMed

    Collier, Jill; Huebscher, Roxana

    2010-04-01

    To shed light on several epidemiological terms for better understanding of diagnostic testing measures by using a mythical condition, "purple mange." Scientific literature related to epidemiology and statistical tests. Nurse practitioners (NPs) use the concepts of sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPEC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) daily in primary care and specialty areas. In addition, PPV and NPV vary with the prevalence of a condition. At times, NPs misunderstand the meaning of these terms. In order to develop appropriate treatment plans, an understanding of the concepts of SEN, SPEC, PPV, and NPV is important for interpreting test results. The authors have used this mythical condition purple mange as a teaching tool for NP students.

  1. Evaluation of the accuracy and clinical practicality of a calculation system for patient positional displacement in carbon ion radiotherapy at five sites.

    PubMed

    Kubota, Yoshiki; Hayashi, Hayato; Abe, Satoshi; Souda, Saki; Okada, Ryosuke; Ishii, Takayoshi; Tashiro, Mutsumi; Torikoshi, Masami; Kanai, Tatsuaki; Ohno, Tatsuya; Nakano, Takashi

    2018-03-01

    We developed a system for calculating patient positional displacement between digital radiography images (DRs) and digitally reconstructed radiography images (DRRs) to reduce patient radiation exposure, minimize individual differences between radiological technologists in patient positioning, and decrease positioning time. The accuracy of this system at five sites was evaluated with clinical data from cancer patients. The dependence of calculation accuracy on the size of the region of interest (ROI) and initial position was evaluated for clinical use. For a preliminary verification, treatment planning and positioning data from eight setup patterns using a head and neck phantom were evaluated. Following this, data from 50 patients with prostate, lung, head and neck, liver, or pancreatic cancer (n = 10 each) were evaluated. Root mean square errors (RMSEs) between the results calculated by our system and the reference positions were assessed. The reference positions were manually determined by two radiological technologists to best-matching positions with orthogonal DRs and DRRs in six axial directions. The ROI size dependence was evaluated by comparing RMSEs for three different ROI sizes. Additionally, dependence on initial position parameters was evaluated by comparing RMSEs for four position patterns. For the phantom study, the average (± standard deviation) translation error was 0.17 ± 0.05, rotation error was 0.17 ± 0.07, and ΔD was 0.14 ± 0.05. Using the optimal ROI size for each patient site, all cases of prostate, lung, and head and neck cancer with initial position parameters of 10 mm or under were acceptable in our tolerance. However, only four liver cancer cases and three pancreatic cancer cases were acceptable, because of low-reproducibility regions in the ROIs. Our system has clinical practicality for prostate, lung, and head and neck cancer cases. Additionally, our findings suggest ROI size dependence in some cases. © 2018 The Authors

  2. Positive affect, intuition, and feelings of meaning.

    PubMed

    Hicks, Joshua A; Cicero, David C; Trent, Jason; Burton, Chad M; King, Laura A

    2010-06-01

    Subjective rationality, or the feeling of meaning, was identified by William James (1893) as a central aspect of the non-sensory fringe of consciousness. Three studies examined the interaction of positive affect (PA) and individual differences in intuitive information processing in predicting feelings of meaning for various stimuli and life events. In Study 1 (N = 352), PA and intuition interacted to predict understanding for ambiguous quotes and abstract artwork. In Study 2 (N = 211), similar interactions were found for feelings of meaning for fans after their football team lost a conference championship game and for individuals not directly affected by Hurricane Katrina in events surrounding the hurricane. In Study 3 (N = 41), induced PA interacted with individual differences in intuition in predicting accuracy for coherence judgments for loosely related linguistic triads. Intuitive individuals in the positive mood condition recognized coherent triads more accurately than did other participants. Results are discussed in terms of the role of individual differences in intuitive information processing in the relationship of PA to cognition. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. The Predictive Accuracy of PREDICT: A Personalized Decision-Making Tool for Southeast Asian Women With Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Hoong-Seam; Subramaniam, Shridevi; Alias, Zarifah; Taib, Nur Aishah; Ho, Gwo-Fuang; Ng, Char-Hong; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M.; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Web-based prognostication tools may provide a simple and economically feasible option to aid prognostication and selection of chemotherapy in early breast cancers. We validated PREDICT, a free online breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool, in a resource-limited setting. All 1480 patients who underwent complete surgical treatment for stages I to III breast cancer from 1998 to 2006 were identified from the prospective breast cancer registry of University Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Calibration was evaluated by comparing the model-predicted overall survival (OS) with patients’ actual OS. Model discrimination was tested using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Median age at diagnosis was 50 years. The median tumor size at presentation was 3 cm and 54% of patients had lymph node-negative disease. About 55% of women had estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. Overall, the model-predicted 5 and 10-year OS was 86.3% and 77.5%, respectively, whereas the observed 5 and 10-year OS was 87.6% (difference: −1.3%) and 74.2% (difference: 3.3%), respectively; P values for goodness-of-fit test were 0.18 and 0.12, respectively. The program was accurate in most subgroups of patients, but significantly overestimated survival in patients aged <40 years, and in those receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PREDICT performed well in terms of discrimination; areas under ROC curve were 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74–0.81) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68–0.78) for 5 and 10-year OS, respectively. Based on its accurate performance in this study, PREDICT may be clinically useful in prognosticating women with breast cancer and personalizing breast cancer treatment in resource-limited settings. PMID:25715267

  4. FDA approved drugs complexed to their targets: evaluating pose prediction accuracy of docking protocols.

    PubMed

    Bohari, Mohammed H; Sastry, G Narahari

    2012-09-01

    Efficient drug discovery programs can be designed by utilizing existing pools of knowledge from the already approved drugs. This can be achieved in one way by repositioning of drugs approved for some indications to newer indications. Complex of drug to its target gives fundamental insight into molecular recognition and a clear understanding of putative binding site. Five popular docking protocols, Glide, Gold, FlexX, Cdocker and LigandFit have been evaluated on a dataset of 199 FDA approved drug-target complexes for their accuracy in predicting the experimental pose. Performance for all the protocols is assessed at default settings, with root mean square deviation (RMSD) between the experimental ligand pose and the docked pose of less than 2.0 Å as the success criteria in predicting the pose. Glide (38.7 %) is found to be the most accurate in top ranked pose and Cdocker (58.8 %) in top RMSD pose. Ligand flexibility is a major bottleneck in failure of docking protocols to correctly predict the pose. Resolution of the crystal structure shows an inverse relationship with the performance of docking protocol. All the protocols perform optimally when a balanced type of hydrophilic and hydrophobic interaction or dominant hydrophilic interaction exists. Overall in 16 different target classes, hydrophobic interactions dominate in the binding site and maximum success is achieved for all the docking protocols in nuclear hormone receptor class while performance for the rest of the classes varied based on individual protocol.

  5. Effects of Prediction and Contextual Support on Lexical Processing: Prediction takes Precedence

    PubMed Central

    Brothers, Trevor; Swaab, Tamara Y.; Traxler, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Readers may use contextual information to anticipate and pre-activate specific lexical items during reading. However, prior studies have not clearly dissociated the effects of accurate lexical prediction from other forms of contextual facilitation such as plausibility or semantic priming. In this study, we measured electrophysiological responses to predicted and unpredicted target words in passages providing varying levels of contextual support. This method was used to isolate the neural effects of prediction from other potential contextual influences on lexical processing. While both prediction and discourse context influenced ERP amplitudes within the time range of the N400, the effects of prediction occurred much more rapidly, preceding contextual facilitation by approximately 100ms. In addition, a frontal, post-N400 positivity (PNP) was modulated by both prediction accuracy and the overall plausibility of the preceding passage. These results suggest a unique temporal primacy for prediction in facilitating lexical access. They also suggest that the frontal PNP may index the costs of revising discourse representations following an incorrect lexical prediction. PMID:25497522

  6. Predictive coding of visual object position ahead of moving objects revealed by time-resolved EEG decoding.

    PubMed

    Hogendoorn, Hinze; Burkitt, Anthony N

    2018-05-01

    Due to the delays inherent in neuronal transmission, our awareness of sensory events necessarily lags behind the occurrence of those events in the world. If the visual system did not compensate for these delays, we would consistently mislocalize moving objects behind their actual position. Anticipatory mechanisms that might compensate for these delays have been reported in animals, and such mechanisms have also been hypothesized to underlie perceptual effects in humans such as the Flash-Lag Effect. However, to date no direct physiological evidence for anticipatory mechanisms has been found in humans. Here, we apply multivariate pattern classification to time-resolved EEG data to investigate anticipatory coding of object position in humans. By comparing the time-course of neural position representation for objects in both random and predictable apparent motion, we isolated anticipatory mechanisms that could compensate for neural delays when motion trajectories were predictable. As well as revealing an early neural position representation (lag 80-90 ms) that was unaffected by the predictability of the object's trajectory, we demonstrate a second neural position representation at 140-150 ms that was distinct from the first, and that was pre-activated ahead of the moving object when it moved on a predictable trajectory. The latency advantage for predictable motion was approximately 16 ± 2 ms. To our knowledge, this provides the first direct experimental neurophysiological evidence of anticipatory coding in human vision, revealing the time-course of predictive mechanisms without using a spatial proxy for time. The results are numerically consistent with earlier animal work, and suggest that current models of spatial predictive coding in visual cortex can be effectively extended into the temporal domain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The value of negative Chlamydia trachomatis antibody in prediction of normal tubes in infertile women.

    PubMed

    Raoofi, Z; Barchinegad, M; Haghighi, L

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate the value of Chlamydia trachomatis antibody testing in prediction of at least one normal tube in infertile women. Eighty infertile women without any history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis were recruited in this cross-sectional study from 2009 to 2010. The patients underwent hysterosalpingography, laparoscopy, and anti Chlamydia trachomatis IgG antibody (CAT) testing. We compared laparoscopy findings and CAT regarding sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and predicting value of tubal conditions. The CAT was positive in 50 patients (62.5%) and laparoscopy was positive in 32 patients (40%). The CAT was significantly higher in women with tubal disease (1.88 +/- 0.34) versus in women with normal tubes (1.21 +/- 0.28) (p = 0.003). Five out of 30 sero-negative women had unilateral tubal abnormality and none of them had bilateral tubal obstruction or severe pelvic adhesion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and accuracy of the CAT in prediction of one normal tube were 100%, 42.25%, 18%, 100%, and 48.75%, respectively. The negative predictive value of CAT to predict at least one normal tube in infertile women without history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis was 100%.

  8. First-line sonographic diagnosis of pneumothorax in major trauma: accuracy of e-FAST and comparison with multidetector computed tomography.

    PubMed

    Ianniello, Stefania; Di Giacomo, Vincenza; Sessa, Barbara; Miele, Vittorio

    2014-09-01

    Combined clinical examination and supine chest radiography have shown low accuracy in the assessment of pneumothorax in unstable patients with major chest trauma during the primary survey in the emergency room. The aim of our study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of extended-focused assessment with sonography in trauma (e-FAST), in the diagnosis of pneumothorax, compared with the results of multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) and of invasive interventions (thoracostomy tube placement). This was a retrospective case series involving 368 consecutive unstable adult patients (273 men and 95 women; average age, 25 years; range, 16-68 years) admitted to our hospital's emergency department between January 2011 and December 2012 for major trauma (Injury Severity Score ≥ 15). We evaluated the accuracy of thoracic ultrasound in the detection of pneumothorax compared with the results of MDCT and invasive interventions (thoracostomy tube placement). Institutional review board approval was obtained prior to commencement of this study. Among the 736 lung fields included in the study, 87 pneumothoraces were detected with thoracic CT scans (23.6%). e-FAST detected 67/87 and missed 20 pneumothoraces (17 mild, 3 moderate). The diagnostic performance of ultrasound was: sensitivity 77% (74% in 2011 and 80% in 2012), specificity 99.8%, positive predictive value 98.5%, negative predictive value 97%, accuracy 97.2% (67 true positive; 668 true negative; 1 false positive; 20 false negative); 17 missed mild pneumothoraces were not immediately life-threatening (thickness less than 5 mm). Thoracic ultrasound (e-FAST) is a rapid and accurate first-line, bedside diagnostic modality for the diagnosis of pneumothorax in unstable patients with major chest trauma during the primary survey in the emergency room.

  9. Prediction of dementia in primary care patients.

    PubMed

    Jessen, Frank; Wiese, Birgitt; Bickel, Horst; Eiffländer-Gorfer, Sandra; Fuchs, Angela; Kaduszkiewicz, Hanna; Köhler, Mirjam; Luck, Tobias; Mösch, Edelgard; Pentzek, Michael; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Wagner, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Maier, Wolfgang; van den Bussche, Hendrik

    2011-02-18

    Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs.

  10. Improving IMES Localization Accuracy by Integrating Dead Reckoning Information

    PubMed Central

    Fujii, Kenjiro; Arie, Hiroaki; Wang, Wei; Kaneko, Yuto; Sakamoto, Yoshihiro; Schmitz, Alexander; Sugano, Shigeki

    2016-01-01

    Indoor positioning remains an open problem, because it is difficult to achieve satisfactory accuracy within an indoor environment using current radio-based localization technology. In this study, we investigate the use of Indoor Messaging System (IMES) radio for high-accuracy indoor positioning. A hybrid positioning method combining IMES radio strength information and pedestrian dead reckoning information is proposed in order to improve IMES localization accuracy. For understanding the carrier noise ratio versus distance relation for IMES radio, the signal propagation of IMES radio is modeled and identified. Then, trilateration and extended Kalman filtering methods using the radio propagation model are developed for position estimation. These methods are evaluated through robot localization and pedestrian localization experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid positioning method achieved average estimation errors of 217 and 1846 mm in robot localization and pedestrian localization, respectively. In addition, in order to examine the reason for the positioning accuracy of pedestrian localization being much lower than that of robot localization, the influence of the human body on the radio propagation is experimentally evaluated. The result suggests that the influence of the human body can be modeled. PMID:26828492

  11. RBind: computational network method to predict RNA binding sites.

    PubMed

    Wang, Kaili; Jian, Yiren; Wang, Huiwen; Zeng, Chen; Zhao, Yunjie

    2018-04-26

    Non-coding RNA molecules play essential roles by interacting with other molecules to perform various biological functions. However, it is difficult to determine RNA structures due to their flexibility. At present, the number of experimentally solved RNA-ligand and RNA-protein structures is still insufficient. Therefore, binding sites prediction of non-coding RNA is required to understand their functions. Current RNA binding site prediction algorithms produce many false positive nucleotides that are distance away from the binding sites. Here, we present a network approach, RBind, to predict the RNA binding sites. We benchmarked RBind in RNA-ligand and RNA-protein datasets. The average accuracy of 0.82 in RNA-ligand and 0.63 in RNA-protein testing showed that this network strategy has a reliable accuracy for binding sites prediction. The codes and datasets are available at https://zhaolab.com.cn/RBind. yjzhaowh@mail.ccnu.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  12. Accuracy of four commonly used color vision tests in the identification of cone disorders.

    PubMed

    Thiadens, Alberta A H J; Hoyng, Carel B; Polling, Jan Roelof; Bernaerts-Biskop, Riet; van den Born, L Ingeborgh; Klaver, Caroline C W

    2013-04-01

    To determine which color vision test is most appropriate for the identification of cone disorders. In a clinic-based study, four commonly used color vision tests were compared between patients with cone dystrophy (n = 37), controls with normal visual acuity (n = 35), and controls with low vision (n = 39) and legal blindness (n = 11). Mean outcome measures were specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and discriminative accuracy of the Ishihara test, Hardy-Rand-Rittler (HRR) test, and the Lanthony and Farnsworth Panel D-15 tests. In the comparison between cone dystrophy and all controls, sensitivity, specificity and predictive value were highest for the HRR and Ishihara tests. When patients were compared to controls with normal vision, discriminative accuracy was highest for the HRR test (c-statistic for PD-axes 1, for T-axis 0.851). When compared to controls with poor vision, discriminative accuracy was again highest for the HRR test (c-statistic for PD-axes 0.900, for T-axis 0.766), followed by the Lanthony Panel D-15 test (c-statistic for PD-axes 0.880, for T-axis 0.500) and Ishihara test (c-statistic 0.886). Discriminative accuracies of all tests did not further decrease when patients were compared to controls who were legally blind. The HRR, Lanthony Panel D-15 and Ishihara all have a high discriminative accuracy to identify cone disorders, but the highest scores were for the HRR test. Poor visual acuity slightly decreased the accuracy of all tests. Our advice is to use the HRR test since this test also allows for evaluation of all three color axes and quantification of color defects.

  13. Meta-Accuracy and Relationship Quality: Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Knowing What People Really Think About You

    PubMed Central

    Carlson, Erika N.

    2016-01-01

    People use metaperceptions, or their beliefs about how other people perceive them, to initiate and maintain social bonds. Are accurate metaperceptions associated with higher quality relationships? In four studies, the current research answers this question but considers the possibility that the self might not experience the same relational benefits of accurate metaperceptions, or meta-accuracy, as the people who form judgments about the self. For example, people tend to like individuals who have accurate self-perceptions, yet individuals tend to enjoy their own relationships more with people they believe see them in desirable ways. To test whether meta-accuracy is linked to relationship quality and whether this link differs for the self and others, meta-accuracy for personality traits as well as metaperceiver- and judge-reported relationship quality were assessed among new acquaintances (N = 184), peers (N = 228), friends (N = 273), and romantic partners (N = 401). Results suggested that judges enjoyed relationships more with metaperceivers who knew the impression they made, regardless of whether judges’ impressions were desirable (i.e., positive or self-verifying). Initial meta-accuracy also predicted greater relationship quality over time, suggesting that accurate metaperceptions have positive effects on relationships. In contrast, rather than enjoying relationships more when they were accurate, metaperceivers enjoyed relationships more when they believed judges perceived them in positive or self-verifying ways. Thus, meta-accuracy seems to be a virtue in the eyes of judges, but metaperceivers do not seem to reap the same benefits of knowing what others really think. Implications for improving meta-accuracy are discussed. PMID:27337137

  14. Urine sampling techniques in symptomatic primary-care patients: a diagnostic accuracy review.

    PubMed

    Holm, Anne; Aabenhus, Rune

    2016-06-08

    Choice of urine sampling technique in urinary tract infection may impact diagnostic accuracy and thus lead to possible over- or undertreatment. Currently no evidencebased consensus exists regarding correct sampling technique of urine from women with symptoms of urinary tract infection in primary care. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of urine culture from different sampling-techniques in symptomatic non-pregnant women in primary care. A systematic review was conducted by searching Medline and Embase for clinical studies conducted in primary care using a randomized or paired design to compare the result of urine culture obtained with two or more collection techniques in adult, female, non-pregnant patients with symptoms of urinary tract infection. We evaluated quality of the studies and compared accuracy based on dichotomized outcomes. We included seven studies investigating urine sampling technique in 1062 symptomatic patients in primary care. Mid-stream-clean-catch had a positive predictive value of 0.79 to 0.95 and a negative predictive value close to 1 compared to sterile techniques. Two randomized controlled trials found no difference in infection rate between mid-stream-clean-catch, mid-stream-urine and random samples. At present, no evidence suggests that sampling technique affects the accuracy of the microbiological diagnosis in non-pregnant women with symptoms of urinary tract infection in primary care. However, the evidence presented is in-direct and the difference between mid-stream-clean-catch, mid-stream-urine and random samples remains to be investigated in a paired design to verify the present findings.

  15. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

    The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

  16. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    DOE PAGES

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

    2016-06-02

    The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

  17. Does Andrews facial analysis predict esthetic sagittal maxillary position?

    PubMed

    Resnick, Cory M; Daniels, Kimberly M; Vlahos, Maryann

    2018-04-01

    Cephalometric analyses have limited utility in planning maxillary sagittal position for orthognathic surgery. In Six Elements of Orofacial Harmony, Andrews quantified maxillary position relative to forehead projection and angulation and proposed an ideal relationship. The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of this technique to predict esthetic sagittal maxillary position. Survey study including a male and female with straight facial profiles, normal maxillary incisor angulations, and Angle's Class I. Maxillary position was modified on lateral photographs to create 5 images for each participant with incisor-goal anterior limit line (GALL) distances of -4, -2, 0, +2, and +4 mm. A series of health care professionals and laypeople were asked to rate each photo in order of attractiveness. A total of 100 complete responses were received. Incisor-GALL distances of +4 mm (41%) and +2 mm (40%) were most commonly considered "most esthetic" for the female volunteer (P < .001). For the male volunteer, there were 2 peak "most esthetic" responses: incisor-GALL distances of 0 mm (37%) and -4 mm (32%) (P < .001). Respondents considered maxillary incisor position 2 to 4 mm anterior to GALL most attractive in a woman and 0 to 4 mm posterior to GALL most esthetic in a man. Using these modified target distances, this analysis may be useful for orthognathic surgery planning. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Rapid race perception despite individuation and accuracy goals.

    PubMed

    Kubota, Jennifer T; Ito, Tiffany

    2017-08-01

    Perceivers rapidly process social category information and form stereotypic impressions of unfamiliar others. However, a goal to individuate a target or to accurately predict their behavior can result in individuated impressions. It is unknown how the combination of both accuracy and individuation goals affects perceptual category processing. To explore this, participants were given both the goal to individuate targets and accurately predict behavior. We then recorded event-related brain potentials while participants viewed photos of black and white males along with four pieces of individuating information in the form of descriptions of past behavior. Even with explicit individuation and accuracy task goals, participants rapidly differentiated targets by race within 200 ms. Importantly, this rapid categorical processing did not influence behavioral outcomes as participants made individuated predictions. These findings indicate that individuals engage in category processing even when provided with individuation and accuracy goals, but that this processing does not necessarily result in category-based judgments.

  19. Meta-analytical prognostic accuracy of the Comprehensive Assessment of at Risk Mental States (CAARMS): The need for refined prediction.

    PubMed

    Oliver, D; Kotlicka-Antczak, M; Minichino, A; Spada, G; McGuire, P; Fusar-Poli, P

    2018-03-01

    Primary indicated prevention is reliant on accurate tools to predict the onset of psychosis. The gold standard assessment for detecting individuals at clinical high risk (CHR-P) for psychosis in the UK and many other countries is the Comprehensive Assessment for At Risk Mental States (CAARMS). While the prognostic accuracy of CHR-P instruments has been assessed in general, this is the first study to specifically analyse that of the CAARMS. As such, the CAARMS was used as the index test, with the reference index being psychosis onset within 2 years. Six independent studies were analysed using MIDAS (STATA 14), with a total of 1876 help-seeking subjects referred to high risk services (CHR-P+: n=892; CHR-P-: n=984). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves (SROC), quality assessment, likelihood ratios, and probability modified plots were computed, along with sensitivity analyses and meta-regressions. The current meta-analysis confirmed that the 2-year prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS is only acceptable (AUC=0.79 95% CI: 0.75-0.83) and not outstanding as previously reported. In particular, specificity was poor. Sensitivity of the CAARMS is inferior compared to the SIPS, while specificity is comparably low. However, due to the difficulties in performing these types of studies, power in this meta-analysis was low. These results indicate that refining and improving the prognostic accuracy of the CAARMS should be the mainstream area of research for the next era. Avenues of prediction improvement are critically discussed and presented to better benefit patients and improve outcomes of first episode psychosis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.. All rights reserved.

  20. Role of specimen US for predicting resection margin status in breast conserving therapy

    PubMed Central

    MOSCHETTA, M.; TELEGRAFO, M.; INTRONA, T.; COI, L.; RELLA, L.; RANIERI, V.; CIRILLI, A.; IANORA, A.A. STABILE; ANGELELLI, G.

    2015-01-01

    Aim To assess the diagnostic accuracy of specimen ultrasound (US) for predicting resection margin status in women undergoing breast conserving therapy for US-detected cancer, having the histological findings as the reference standard. Patients and methods A total of 132 consecutive patients (age range, 34–87 years; mean, 51 years) underwent breast-conserving surgery for US-detected invasive breast cancer. All surgical specimens underwent US examination. The presence of lesion within the specimen and its distance from the specimen margins were assessed considering a threshold distance between the lesion and specimen margins of 10 mm. US findings were then compared with the pathological ones and specimen US. Sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for predicting histological margin status were evaluated, having the histological findings as the reference standard. Results The histological examination detected invasive ductal carcinoma in 96/132 (73%) cases, invasive lobular carcinoma in 32/132 (24%), mucinous carcinoma in 4/132 (3%). The pathological margin analysis revealed 96/132 (73%) negative margins and 36 (27%) close/positive margins. US examination detected all 132 breast lesions within the surgical specimens. 110 (83%) negative margins and 22 (17%) positive margins were found on US. Sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy, PPV and NPV of 44%, 94%, 80%, 73% and 82%, respectively, were found for specimen US. Conclusions Specimen US represents a time and cost saving imaging tool for evaluating the presence of US detected-breast lesion within surgical specimen and for predicting the histological margin status. PMID:26712255